# Bristol City Council elections 2013



## JTG (Apr 21, 2013)

So, while everybody's wibbling on about the County Council elections elsewhere, Bristol will be electing 23 of its 70 councillors on May 2nd. The following seats are up for grabs (names in brackets are the sitting councillors together with their party and majority over the second placed party last time out in 2009 - one exception being Southmead where the result is for the by-election held in November 2011). All in the north west, west and east of the city, the south sits it out this time.

Ashley (Jon Rogers LD Maj 695 over G)
Avonmouth (Siobhan Kennedy-Hall C Maj 226 over L)
Bishopston (Bev Knott LD Maj 1261 over G)
Cabot (Mark Wright LD Maj 692 over G)
Clifton (Trevor Blythe LD Maj 482 over C)
Clifton East (Simon Cook LD Maj 437 over C)
Cotham (Anthony Negus LD Maj 683 over G)
Easton (John Kiely LD Maj 174 over L)
Eastville (Steve Comer LD Maj 593 over L)
Frome Vale (James Stevenson C Maj 308 over L)
Henbury (Chris Windows C Maj 321 over L)
Henleaze (Glenise Morgan LD Maj 73 over C)
Hillfields (Patrick Hassell LD Maj 358 over L)
Horfield (Cheryl Ann LD Maj 452 over C)
Kingsweston (Simon Rayner LD Maj 729 over C)
Lawrence Hill (Brenda Hugill L Maj 9 over LD)
Lockleaze (Guy Poultney LD Maj 407 over L)
Redland (Fi Hance LD Maj 486 over G)
St George East (Alex Pearce C Maj 452 over L)
St George West (Ron Stone L Maj 91 over LD)
Southmead (Brenda Massey L Maj 334 over C)
Stoke Bishop (Peter Abraham C Maj 1301 over LD)
Westbury on Trym (Geoffrey Gollop C Maj 967 over LD)

The last set of results for these seats in May 2009 were an absolute shocker for Labour, losing seven seats to the Lib Dems and Tories. The loss of seats such as Kingsweston and Southmead (since regained in some style with the LD vote collapsing spectacularly) were a pretty stunning reflection on the state of Labour in Bristol and the steady rise of the Liberal Democrats over the past decade. Labour won less than 19% of the vote in 2009, only 4.5 points ahead of the Green Party. Lib Dems took 35% and Tories 26%.

Since then of course there's been a change of government and a corresponding retreat in the Liberal Democrat tide in the city, the May 2011 elections seeing Labour win four seats from the Liberals. The Lib Dems also comprehensively lost Ashley to the Green Party.

I can see a few different narratives here. Can Labour win back their former inner city and estate strongholds of Easton, Hillfields, Avonmouth, Eastville, Frome Vale, Henbury, Kingsweston, Lockleaze and St George East? Can the Lib Dems hold onto their footholds in former Labour areas, stave off the rising Green Party challenge in the Gloucester Road lentil belt of Ashley, Bishopston, Cotham and Redland and will a collapse in their vote allow the Tories through in Henleaze and the Clifton seats? Can the Tories hold onto their slivers on the edge of the city (St George East, Henbury, Avonmouth, Frome Vale) and get back into a position to challenge in west Bristol? And what effect, if any, will George Ferguson's Independents slate have?

My predictions, based on gut instinct:
Ashley - too close to call. Jon Rogers' personal vote to keep him in contention against the Green challenge
Avonmouth - Labour gain
Bishopston - Lib Dem hold, just. Daniella Radice to finish a strong second for the Greens
Cabot - Lib Dem hold
Clifton - Lib Dem hold
Clifton East - Lib Dem hold
Cotham - Lib Dem hold
Easton - Labour gain, Greens to finish second
Eastville - Labour gain
Frome Vale - Labour gain
Henbury - Labour gain
Henleaze - Conservative gain
Hillfields - Labour gain
Horfield - Lib Dem hold
Kingsweston - Labour gain. They were a hell of a long way back in third place in 2009 but having grown up there I just can't believe it won't be Labour again
Lawrence Hill - Labour hold
Lockleaze - Labour gain
Redland - Green gain. Not sure about this one but I can't help but feel the Greens will break through either here, Bishopston or Cotham.
St George East - Labour gain
St George West - Labour hold
Southmead - Labour hold
Stoke Bishop - Conservative hold (  )
Westbury on Trym - Conservative hold ( again,  )

So, Labour +9, Green +2 (or +1), LD -8 (or -7), C -3
The council would look like this if I'm right: Labour 31, Lib Dem 25/24, Tory 11, Green 4/3

What say you lot? Any local insights? Anything I've missed? Gossip, wild predictions? Go on, you know it's dead fascinating...


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## JTG (Apr 26, 2013)

Well this thread is going well 

Have seen a few Independents for Bristol stake signs in the Horfield/Bishopston area and the Greens are making some confident noises about Ashley and possibly some of the neighbouring wards (ie Bishopston, Cotham, Redland, Cabot). Source: Gus Hoyt and Rob Telford getting a bit full of themselves on Twitter/facebook.

I also saw Green candidate for Bishopston Daniella Radice on her bike on Nevil Road earlier. She was wearing a rosette.


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## xenon (Apr 27, 2013)

Uhm. I dunno. Thanks for the info. Not knowing the individuals and specific local dynamics in the wards, I'd say a modest Labour gain sounds about right.


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## bi0boy (Apr 27, 2013)

What do you reckon to UKIP's chances?


```
Albert Murphy         Avonmouth
Alex Zychowski        Clifton
Pete Brown            Lawrence Hill
Steve Wood            Frome Vale
Christine Thomas      Redland
Phil Collins          St George East
```


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## JTG (Apr 27, 2013)

bi0boy said:


> What do you reckon to UKIP's chances?
> 
> 
> ```
> ...


 
For starters, Spud Murphy is the former Tory councillor for Avonmouth so may possibly do well enough there to ensure a Labour gain (assuming he's pulling more Tory votes away than Labour). I guess Frome Vale may be fertile UKIP territory, it's a suburban Tory/Labour marginal, though tbh I'm a little hazy about that side of town. Likewise St George East, though again I'd expect that to do enough to ensure Labour win.

Was doing some volunteering in the Bearpit today while there was a hustings for the Ashley candidates. Jon Rogers seemed confident enough as a speaker, as you'd expect from a long term sitting councillor and cabinet member. Rob Telford got a bit arsey with some hecklers whilst he was regurgitating some standard woolly crap about 'corporations'. Only really heard the Independent guy in full - he spent a long time going on about how independent he was and spent very little time actually talking about what he wanted to do. Summat about accessing money for the community. Thanks for that.


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## Geri (Apr 27, 2013)

Labour were canvassing here this morning so they obviously think they have a good chance. Steve Comer is quite popular on a personal level here though so he might hang onto his seat.


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## JTG (Apr 27, 2013)

Geri said:


> Labour were canvassing here this morning so they obviously think they have a good chance. Steve Comer is quite popular on a personal level here though so he might hang onto his seat.


Yeah, I think he and Rogers may just save their arses on personal popularity... or not. I've vaguely known Steve Comer for a few years (he's a Rovers fan, proper home and away Gashead, though think he's had to scale back a little since becoming a councillor) and he's an alright bloke. Still a Lib Dem though so...


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## JTG (Apr 27, 2013)

Have I mentioned that I think this Independent party-that-isn't-a-party is a bit sus? Set up by the same people behind Ferguson's 'Bristol 1st' campaign, smells of a Glos Road/Clifton bohemian artsy project with zero idea about working class areas of the city


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## Geri (Apr 27, 2013)

He's come to the door a few times and I feel bad telling him that I won't vote for him. He does work pretty hard, it has to be said.


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## JTG (Apr 27, 2013)

Geri said:


> He's come to the door a few times and I feel bad telling him that I won't vote for him. He does work pretty hard, it has to be said.


Always struck me as someone who wanted to 'do something' and ended up in the Lib Dems for whatever reason. Then machine politics takes over


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## big eejit (Apr 27, 2013)

I live in Ashley and I think Jon Rogers will hold it. He does a lot of work in the ward and has good political sense. 

The Green candidate seems a bit of a smug tit. In fact lots of smugness emanating from that side imo.

Think residents parking could be a big issue this election. Greens seem to be too keen to back mayor's anti democratic scheme. JR in Ashley being quite clever and listening a lot. 

Read about hustings in Barton Hill where residents all against parking zones. All candidates scramble to agree, greens not present. Mayor condemns cowardly candidates for listening to popular opinion. Democracy sucks eh George.


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## JTG (Apr 28, 2013)

Don't know enough about the parking schemes issue really, it's an interesting one - think the Bristolian were saying nobody in Ashley seemed to be taking a position for fear of leaning too far either way and it being a vote loser?

Yeah, what little I've seen of Rob Telford (social media and yesterday's hustings) doesn't recommend him to me tbh. Gus got an easy ride against a new Lib Dem candidate replacing the awful Shirley and romped home. They are getting a bit cocky from what I can see and I don't think it'll be quite as easy as they think. Too close to call from what I can tell (from out here in the sticks but lived in the ward for a very long time!).

Greens seem quite cosy with His Royal Georgeness eh. Bit too grateful for the cabinet position and not wanting to rock the boat? Or just too damn woolly to really make any impact in the way they say they want to.


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## JTG (Apr 29, 2013)

http://thebristolian.net/2013/04/28/local-elections-lib-dems-in-anti-jock-shock/

Comer's Eastville campaign in anti-Scottish outburst shocker!


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## Geri (Apr 30, 2013)

> By any means necessary eh? including xenophobia. My bet is that’ll get short shrift in Eastville. Tossers!!, (and thats no a caber reference)


 

As an Eastville voter, I can honestly say I do not give a toss.


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## butchersapron (Apr 30, 2013)

JTG said:


> Yeah, I think he and Rogers may just save their arses on personal popularity... or not. I've vaguely known Steve Comer for a few years (he's a Rovers fan, proper home and away Gashead, though think he's had to scale back a little since becoming a councillor) and he's an alright bloke. Still a Lib Dem though so...


He's a weirdo knobber who puts on a trade union front of fighting cuts within the PCS (ex NEC member) and posing as a socialist whilst being a cuts endorsing lib-dem councillor, being personally responsible for many job losses when head of the Human Resources Committee


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## JTG (Apr 30, 2013)

Fair enough


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## butchersapron (Apr 30, 2013)

And i've told him three times the last week not to put his filth through our door but he still does.


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## butchersapron (Apr 30, 2013)

He'd be on better ground attacking her for this bit of vomit inducing guff:



> Eight years ago I fell in love.
> 
> I came down to Bristol on a family holiday and fell for its charms. It was my first choice for University and I took my place to study Chemistry.
> 
> Upon graduating, I worked for the University as entrepreneur-in-residence, spending part of my time as an enterprise educator and part of my time exploring running my own business. I developed a stronger passion for the education part of my job, so in November 2011, joined the staff at the University of the West of England as the Student Enterprise Adviser.


 
and for the fact that she was too scared to get the normal bus with normal people so instead _hid on the student bus_:



> I would get  the U3 bus


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## JTG (Apr 30, 2013)

Is she really trying to make a case for representing Eastville on the back of going through it on the bus to uni?!

Jesus


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## JTG (Apr 30, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> And i've told him three times the last week not to put his filth through our door but he still does.


Set the cat on him


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## JTG (Apr 30, 2013)

Anyway, here in Henbury we've only heard from the Labour candidate. Fuck knows where the Tories are, they're supposed to be defending the seat. Was considering a vote for Labour to bin the Tory but then I remind myself of the sort of shitstain cuntitude that Labour get up to, nationally and locally


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## DaveCinzano (Apr 30, 2013)

JTG said:


> Don't know enough about the parking schemes issue really, it's an interesting one - think the Bristolian were saying nobody in Ashley seemed to be taking a position for fear of leaning too far either way and it being a vote loser?


 
Here you go:

http://thebristolian.net/2013/04/21/prattle-royale-in-ashley/

Rogers triangulate George on RPZs:

http://www.bristol247.com/2013/04/29/jon-rogers-backs-mayor-over-residents-parking-zones-62591/


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## butchersapron (Apr 30, 2013)

JTG said:


> Is she really trying to make a case for representing Eastville on the back of going through it on the bus to uni?!
> 
> Jesus


She was here on sunday, lots and lots of adult minders around.


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## DaveCinzano (Apr 30, 2013)

JTG said:


> Easton (John Kiely LD Maj 174 over L)...
> 
> My predictions, based on gut instinct:
> ... Easton - Labour gain, Greens to finish second


 
I don't know - here in Redfield not had anything through from Shah. Could he be sitting back hoping for a communitarian vote in his favour? If he is, I suspect he will find it elusive.

Kiely on the other hand seems to have been rather active in recent weeks and months, bringing the Greenbank, the Chocolate Factory and the dearth of primary school places to the fore - all significant local issues that are spread across the ward (community cohesion, housing and education) rather than only rooted in one area. He also seems to be active when approached by constituents.

Also had literature through the door from the Greens (McMullen) - don't know what effect they will have locally.



JTG said:


> And what effect, if any, will George Ferguson's Independents slate have?


 
Little to none, I would imagine  About as bourgeois as you could get, I'm not sure a get-you-back-into-work poverty tourist from Clifton (Townsend) will rake in many votes in Lawrence Hill. The Arnolfini's millionaire finance director (McLennan) might do alright on her home turf of Cliftonwood, if her butler's been out burning the shoe leather.

Maybe the Ashley (Belizaire) and Horfield (Mochizuki) will scoop up some credulous yogurt weaver/liberal student votes, will be interesting to see.

Seeing as the whole IfB thing seems predicated on "we must have more sensible middle class people in politics!", not sure that's going to play particularly well in the inner city wards.


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## JTG (Apr 30, 2013)

Cheers for that. Based my Easton prediction on the last time out (two years ago) when I think Labour romped home with the Lib Dems only finishing around 25 votes ahead of the Greens. Having said that, Kieley is the Lib Dems' longest sitting councillor so must have some kind of personal following... Met Anna McMullen the other week, without realising she was standing for the council. I slagged off the Ferguson mob and she was broadly sympathetic without saying much. She agreed with me that meals on wheels services are more important than wanky arts projects anyway.

Spot on re: IfB. They may get votes down the lentil belt but not much elsewhere. The Ferguson strategy


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## DaveCinzano (Apr 30, 2013)

The Indy Redpants lot keep emphasising 'IfB is not a party!', and yet they campaign together, they share platforms and hustings, and they never, ever critique Ferguson or each other. Funny, that.


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## butchersapron (Apr 30, 2013)

I wonder what the election rules say on that.


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## JTG (Apr 30, 2013)

DaveCinzano said:


> The Indy Redpants lot keep emphasising 'IfB is not a party!', and yet they campaign together, they share platforms and hustings, and they never, ever critique Ferguson or each other. Funny, that.


But they're dead independent like and that's all we need to know from what I can tell


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## butchersapron (Apr 30, 2013)

Secret parties not allowed, a big no no - disqualification and fines would follow.


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## JTG (Apr 30, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Secret parties not allowed, a big no no - disqualification and fines would follow.


Any idea if there's a definition of what a party is? Assuming that from what you say, there's something explicit regarding groups who aren't registered with the Electoral Commission or whatever


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## butchersapron (Apr 30, 2013)

Seems i may be wrong on this - i'm not convinced that i am yet though. Will come back on this later. I'm sure it's something like undeclared parties rather than undeclared party membership.


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## JTG (Apr 30, 2013)

What you're saying should make sense. Can of worms otherwise


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## DaveCinzano (Apr 30, 2013)

JTG said:


> Any idea if there's a definition of what a party is? Assuming that from what you say, there's something explicit regarding groups who aren't registered with the Electoral Commission or whatever


But they are registered with the EC - its 'leader' & treasurer is Stephen Perry (who coincidentally is also treasurer of George's other 'but it's not a political party' party, Bristol 1st). IfB's reference number is PP2038. Bristol 1st's is PP1957.

Use the EC search here:

https://pefonline.electoralcommission.org.uk/Search/EntitySearch.aspx


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## DaveCinzano (Apr 30, 2013)

Oh, and IfB was set up by posh ex-BBC journo Stephen Perry, organiser of 'Bristol Speakers Corner', and resident of Southernhay Avenue (where he is a neighbour of Arnolfini finance director Brenda McLennan, IfB candidate for Clifton), with help from Chris Sunderland of Bristol Pound, and - of course - George Ferguson.

Bristol Pound recently announced they now had £100,000 deposited. Didn't mention that a significant chunk of that was George's mayoral salary... Wonder why?


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## JTG (Apr 30, 2013)

I have just googled Bristol Speakers Corner and found Big Jeff described as a 'legendary performance poet'


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## geminisnake (Apr 30, 2013)

Geri said:


> He's come to the door a few times and I feel bad telling him that I won't vote for him. He does work pretty hard, it has to be said.


 
Did you tell him why you won't vote for him? Just wondering. I would


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## butchersapron (Apr 30, 2013)

I told him.


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## DaveCinzano (May 1, 2013)

Had first (and only) Labour leaflet through this afternoon - leaving it rather late... Also suggesting eleventh hour panicking is the inclusion of detailed diagram showing where to vote on the ballot, a mobile number to ring if you want to vote for Shah but don't know where the nearest polling station is, or if you're too infirm to get there on your own, and 4 of the vaguest pledges ever (all of which Kiely and/or the Lib Dems have also committed to).

Kiely's latest missive - third in a week - focuses on how Shah is 'the invisible man', and how it's a two-horse race between Labour and Lib Dems (yet his own graphic shows that the gap between the Greens and Labour is smaller than that between Labour and Lib Dems, so go figure). Bit of mud-slinging on the Whitehall School/Chocolate Factory/Redfield primary places front.

Nice photo vox-pop - endorsements from Dayley Lawrence of Frenchay Unison, local resident Saleh, and Abdul Malik, described as a "friend and resident". So definitely not the same Abdul Malik who used to be a Lib Dem councillor for Easton, 2005-9?


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## JTG (May 1, 2013)

Easton sounds more interesting than I thought then... is that the same Abdul Malik of Pak Butchers who is standing for the Lib Dems in Lawrence Hill by the way? 

Had Chris Windows' Tory leaflet through the door this afternoon. Criticises Labour for not working with the mayor and emphasises that the election won't change the way the city or country is run so it's best to 'send a message' to His Mayorness. Takes the usual credit for all the local issues that the other parties also agree on. If anything it's reminded me how offensive I find the Tories and may persuade me to pootle off and vote Labour tomorrow.

Who knows. Exciting stuff in Henbury. I'm a swing voter or something


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## DaveCinzano (May 1, 2013)

JTG said:


> ... is that the same Abdul Malik of Pak Butchers who is standing for the Lib Dems in Lawrence Hill by the way?


 
Lawrence Hill is sounding more and more like a local election clusterfuck - my prediction:


Lib Dem
Labour
Green
Conservative
UKIP
IfB
TUSC
(Based on local gossip about Jama not putting in the legwork)


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## JTG (May 1, 2013)

DaveCinzano said:


> Lawrence Hill is sounding more and more like a local election clusterfuck - my prediction:
> 
> 
> Lib Dem
> ...


Interesting. Hadn't realised Hugill wasn't standing again tbh. Only a majority of 9 over the Lib Dems last time so I'm guessing it's a case of national polls v local campaigning in terms of who you think will win. Malik's obviously experienced so I'd imagine he'll put a decent show on and that means Jama's got to put some work in. Rest of the prediction seems reasonable.

Facebook providing many Green/Lib Dem lols. Seems every time I look at a different local group there's Rogers, Hoyt, Telford and Christian Martin (LD Clifton East) having 'discussions' of varying heatedness. Fascinating stuff. Except usually it isn't.


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## Geri (May 1, 2013)

geminisnake said:


> Did you tell him why you won't vote for him? Just wondering. I would


 
I can't really remember. I may have just said "Sorry, I usually vote Labour" or something.


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## DaveCinzano (May 1, 2013)

At 9pm got a 2nd IfB leaflet - again full of airy-fairy generalities, 'arts & crafts for toddlers' type stuff, rather than specific issues.

So that's:

3 x Lib Dem
2 x IfB
1 x Green
1 x Labour
0 x Tories (funnily enough)


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## JTG (May 1, 2013)

"Vote for us, we're nice and dead independent. And sensible and middle class"


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## JTG (May 2, 2013)

Lib Dem dirty tricks in Easton, last minute leaflet put out saying that the Greens have conceded...

https://twitter.com/PurpleGreenRob/status/329635248910524416


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## Gerry1time (May 2, 2013)

Lib Dems out knocking up in force in Ashley right now. The ink still smells fresh on the leaflet they just put through the door. Still reckon it'll be very close though.

To my mind, the biggest story of the election is going to be the woefully low turnout though. Why bother voter for councillors when we have a Mayor?


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## JTG (May 2, 2013)

Greens on Twitter are hopeful for Ashley, Bishopston and Easton.

I am still undecided about what to do here in Henbury. May vote Labour, may not vote at all. I detest Labour

When are they counting? Overnight or tomorrow?


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## Gerry1time (May 2, 2013)

I think the Greens are certainly going to give the Lib Dems a very good run in those wards, though I'd suspect Bishopston is more likely than the others to go Green.

The count will be overnight I think. I know someone who was asked to work a night shift tonight on elections, which I suspect means they would have been counting them. The live results webcast starts at 9:45am tomorrow too.


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## JTG (May 2, 2013)

I think Easton's the outsider of the three. Was sceptical about Bishopston but hadn't realised that Bev Knott was retiring which put a different spin on it. Ashley is hard to call - big Green majority two years ago (think Hoyt got the highest single vote of anyone in 2011) v the John Rogers factor


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## Gerry1time (May 2, 2013)

The thing that happened in Ashley last time was that all three parties' vote shares went up a lot. I heard something along the lines that Labour, Lib Dem and Green all got more votes than the winning Lib Dem total in the previous election. So I guess today is Ashley is all about turnout, hence the Lib Dems knocking up round here.

Bev Knott retiring I'm ambivalent about. He should have retired years ago, and I can't imagine he has the same personal vote factor as Jon Rogers. That said, I'd still be inclined to call Bishopston for the Greens.


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## big eejit (May 2, 2013)

I think JR will hold Ashley. Very active local councillor. And the green bloke is a bit of a tit.


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## JTG (May 2, 2013)

Gerry1time said:


> The thing that happened in Ashley last time was that all three parties' vote shares went up a lot. I heard something along the lines that Labour, Lib Dem and Green all got more votes than the winning Lib Dem total in the previous election. So I guess today is Ashley is all about turnout, hence the Lib Dems knocking up round here.
> 
> Bev Knott retiring I'm ambivalent about. He should have retired years ago, and I can't imagine he has the same personal vote factor as Jon Rogers. That said, I'd still be inclined to call Bishopston for the Greens.


That's interesting. I'd imagine Ashley can be fairly volatile in terms of population turnover etc as well so you can never quite be sure what may happen.

I have a personal dislike for Bev Knott and the Bishopston Lib Dems due to their anti-Rovers stance. Though the Greens are hardly better on that front



big eejit said:


> I think JR will hold Ashley. Very active local councillor. And the green bloke is a bit of a tit.


Decent summary 

Have decided not to vote. Can't stomach a Labour vote, even to kick a Tory out. No point voting Green here even if I wanted to and the Birthday Party are conspiraloon twats


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## Gerry1time (May 2, 2013)

Just went and voted, and judging by the fact that hardly any names on the voter lists were crossed out, either everyone's voting after work, or turnout will be poor. 

I'm not a massive Bev Knott fan either, but more due to his inability to say the simplest thing in less than a dissertation's worth of words


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## JTG (May 2, 2013)

Gerry1time said:


> Just went and voted, and judging by the fact that hardly any names on the voter lists were crossed out, either everyone's voting after work, or turnout will be poor.
> 
> I'm not a massive Bev Knott fan either, but more due to his inability to say the simplest thing in less than a dissertation's worth of words


Are you in St Andrews somewhere? Just going by your combined Ashley/Bishopston knowledge


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## big eejit (May 2, 2013)

I voted in my Everton kit after playing footy at lunchtime. I think I can safely say I was the sweatiest voter in today's elections.


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## DaveCinzano (May 2, 2013)

big eejit said:


> I voted in my Everton kit after playing footy at lunchtime. I think I can safely say I was the sweatiest voter in today's elections.


Have you never bumped into Gary Hopkins?


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## Gerry1time (May 2, 2013)

JTG said:


> Are you in St Andrews somewhere? Just going by your combined Ashley/Bishopston knowledge


 
Not that posh! I've just been around council people and the associated 'politics' they deal with for many years now. 

Just returned home to a small pile of Lib Dem 'one hour left to vote' leaflets, which implies a) they were knocking up to the very last minute and b) someone was so knackered from knocking up all day that they no longer cared how many leaflets they were putting through the door.

Will be interested to see the result tomorrow!


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## BlackArab (May 3, 2013)

Jon Rogers will pick up more votes in St Pauls than the Greens and his home turf St Andrews. The Werbs will go for Green, probably Montpelier too unless Chris Chalkley tells them different. Hard to call but I'd guess Jon would edge it.


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

BlackArab said:


> Jon Rogers will pick up more votes in St Pauls than the Greens and his home turf St Andrews. The Werbs will go for Green, probably Montpelier too unless Chris Chalkley tells them different. Hard to call but I'd guess Jon would edge it.


Sounds about right in terms of neighbourhood splits. Do you reckon what's left of the Labour vote in Ashley is concentrated in St Pauls as well? Can remember when it regularly returned two Labour councillors...


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## big eejit (May 3, 2013)

Live results webcast

http://www.bristol.public-i.tv/core/portal/webcast_interactive/102272


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

The hideous spud has lost.


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Clifton: Tory gain. Woah


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Tories take clifton form lib-dems, as they will with many of of their constituency seats.


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Clifton: Tory gain. Woah


Only kept the other clifton seat by 17 votes as well.


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Independents gain Kingsweston from Lib Dems
Tories hold Avonmouth
Lib Dems hold Clifton East


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Avonmouth:
*Wayne Raymond Harvey* The Conservative Party Candidate   1068 39.38
Nicola Bowden-Jones Labour Party Candidate   824 30.38
Spud Murphy UKIP   648 23.89
Justin Quinnell Green Party   80 2.95
Ian Humfrey Campion-Smith Liberal Democrat   64 2.36
Patrick Dorian Hulme Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts   28 1.03


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Clifton East:
*Simon Timothy Cook* Liberal Democrat   576 34.68
Gareth Alan-Williams The Conservative Party Candidate   559 33.65
Peter Kennedy-Chapman Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate   268 16.13
Simon Bennett Green Party   258 15.53


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Kingsweston:
*Jason Budd* Independents for Bristol   620 27.60
Mike Thorne Labour Party Candidate   584 26.00
Alex Smethurst Liberal Democrat   521 23.20
Barbara Madeleine Lewis The Conservative Party Candidate   404 17.99
Lela McTernan Green Party   77 3.43
Roger Thomas Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts   40 1.78


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Bishopston coming up...


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Bishopston coming up...


Green gain, landslide


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

From lib-dems.


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

That's a huge swing in bpton.


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## Geri (May 3, 2013)

Thank fuck I moved out of Bishopston and away from all the stupid middle class women in their K V Kuppam dresses.


----------



## Geri (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Roger Thomas Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 40 1.78


 
Poor Roger


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Geri said:


> Thank fuck I moved out of Bishopston and away from all the stupid middle class women in their K V Kuppam dresses.


They decided who your mayor was for you as well.


----------



## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

Budd wins Kingsweston for IfB


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Cabot next Lib Dem hold


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Is that Radice any relation to Hugh and that family?


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Turnout so far seems awful, numbers not very high at all


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

DaveCinzano said:


> Budd wins Kingsweston for IfB


On 27% of the vote


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Cabot next Lib Dem hold


That's all them uni lecturers and the nice flats.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Bishopston:
*Daniella Radice* Green Party   1256 36.10
Kye Dudd Labour Party Candidate   675 19.40
John James Hickey Independents for Bristol   665 19.11
Chris Harris Liberal Democrat   626 17.99
Richard James Manns The Conservative Party Candidate   225 6.47
Chris Farrell Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts   32 0.92


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Clifton:
*Charles James Hastings Lucas* The Conservative Party Candidate 638 26.76
Brenda Jane McLennan Independents for Bristol 547 22.94
Andy Morgan Liberal Democrat 459 19.25
Rosemary Chamberlin Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate 320 13.42
Simon Stafford-Townsend Green Party 249 10.44
Alex Zychowski UK Independence Party 171 7.17

Awful result for the Lib Dems in a seat they held, vote appears to have deserted for the Independent


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Easton: Labour gain, Greens second. Another awful Lib Dem result

Kieley appears not to have shown up


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Awful result for the Lib Dems in a seat they held, vote appears to have deserted for the Independent


 
Exactly the same as happened to them in the Mayoral election too.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Gerry1time said:


> Exactly the same as happened to them in the Mayoral election too.


Bishopston they appeared to lose votes to the Inds and Greens.


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Take that bowl headed twat out next please.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Cabot:
*Mark Michael Wright* Liberal Democrat   852 40.61
Simon Firth Labour Party Candidate   541 25.79
Charlie Bolton Green Party   425 20.26
Chris Didcote The Conservative Party Candidate   280 13.35


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

I love the way some of the winning candidates are making speeches, as if they've just been elected to a position that still means anything any more.


----------



## big eejit (May 3, 2013)

Was a good speech by the Labour winner in Easton tho I thought.


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

big eejit said:


> Was a good speech by the Labour winner in Easton tho I thought.


I didn't hear it but it was shit.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Sorry I don't live in Easton any more, fun result that


----------



## big eejit (May 3, 2013)

Recount in Ashley?


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> I didn't hear it but it was shit.


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

big eejit said:


> Was a good speech by the Labour winner in Easton tho I thought.


 
Yeah, they're not dreadful, it's all just so typically councillorish. The role is only a slight step up from being head of the local neighbourhood watch, and means even less now than it did before. Yet it seems to attract people who genuinely believe the role makes them a politician and community leader, worthy of making speeches. It's why I generally try to avoid the whole council politics thing these days.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Easton:
*Afzal Shah* Labour Party Candidate 974 33.95
Anna McMullen Green Party 840 29.28
John Francis Kiely Liberal Democrat Focus Team 698 24.33
Jane Westhead Independents for Bristol 267 9.31
Tony Lee The Conservative Party Candidate 90 3.14

Bye bye Kiely


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

No ideas how eastville will go, but we got the labour knock at 8ish which usually means they still thought they had a chance from the station returns.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> No ideas how eastville will go, but we got the labour knock at 8ish which usually means they still thought they had a chance from the station returns.


It's gone. Has to be on the results so far


----------



## Geri (May 3, 2013)

Greens second in Easton. Have they changed the boundary to encompass the middle class or something?


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Really? Bloody hell, will check.


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Geri said:


> Greens second in Easton. Have they changed the boundary to encompass the middle class or something?


What that twat won again? And the greens second?

Let's move.


----------



## Geri (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> What that twat won again? And the greens second?
> 
> Let's move.


 
Easton, not Eastville!


----------



## gentlegreen (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Bye bye Kiely


He'll have time to tidy up his front drive now.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Geri said:


> Greens second in Easton. Have they changed the boundary to encompass the middle class or something?


Top end of Easton round St Marks Road is quite m/c bohemian in parts. There's the hippy vote too.



butchersapron said:


> Really? Bloody hell, will check.


It was a prediction, not had the result yet


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Right, so eastville not yet in, and i haven't missed it. Very close to spoiling my day there.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Right, so eastville not yet in, and i haven't missed it. Very close to spoiling my day there.


Patience!


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Geri said:


> Greens second in Easton. Have they changed the boundary to encompass the middle class or something?


It's all the somalians. They love that shit.


----------



## Geri (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Top end of Easton round St Marks Road is quite m/c bohemian in parts. There's the hippy vote too.


 
_Kebele_


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Geri said:


> _Kebele_


People from there did help the greens with their election leafleting last time around. I kid you not.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> People from there did help the greens with their election leafleting last time around. I kid you not.


Doesn't surprise me


----------



## big eejit (May 3, 2013)

*Robin Markwell* ‏@*robinmarkwell*  35s
Not announced yet but LDs have lost Ashley to Greens. Labour second. Former council deputy leader Dr Jon Rogers loses seat.

Blimey.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

ha!


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

Pity, regardless of party politics, Jon was a massively hard working councillor.


----------



## Geri (May 3, 2013)

Wasn't he responsible for a lot of the cycling initiatives?


----------



## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

Gerry1time said:


> Pity, regardless of party politics, Jon was a massively hard working councillor.


Win lose or draw I'm sure he'll have a drink to celebrate.


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Gerry1time said:


> Pity, regardless of party politics, Jon was a massively hard working councillor.


He is a cock because of his party politics. Fuck him. And fuck them.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Ashley coming now

Confirmed. Greens, Labour, Lib Dems. Telford elected


----------



## big eejit (May 3, 2013)

Wow, Jon Rogers pushed into 3rd behind Labour. That's v bad for LDs given his local popularity.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

big eejit said:


> Wow, Jon Rogers pushed into 3rd behind Labour. That's v bad for LDs given his local popularity.


Yeah, reasonably popular but still only third. Dreadful for them. Williams has to be shitting himself with these results


----------



## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

Most Dysfunctional Family (Ashley Ward), 2013


----------



## big eejit (May 3, 2013)

"My mum used to say, Fine words butter no parsnips." What a tit.


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Yeah, reasonably popular but still only third. Dreadful for them. Williams has to be shitting himself with these results


I think he gave up the ghost a year or two back. Dead in the water and he knows it.


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> He is a cock because of his party politics. Fuck him. And fuck them.


 
I've always found the idea that Bristol City Council has anything to do with party politics really bizarre. It's full of local politics and infighting for sure, and there are groups that call themselves parties, but the days of people involved in them holding party ideologies, with a few notable exceptions, seem long gone. You may as well just call them after their colours.


----------



## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

Still, only 75 votes for Karl Ifb


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> I think he gave up the ghost a year or two back. Dead in the water and he knows it.


 
I've heard rumours he's already talking of not standing.


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Gerry1time said:


> I've always found the idea that Bristol City Council has anything to do with party politics really bizarre. It's full of local politics and infighting for sure, and there are groups that call themselves parties, but the days of people involved in them holding party ideologies, with a few notable exceptions, seem long gone. You may as well just call them after their colours.


Yet he was proud of his lib-dem membership - it obv means something to him.


----------



## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

The Last Supper


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

DaveCinzano said:


> Still, only 75 votes for Karl Ifb


Their results can be best described as 'variable'


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

_'No pattern emerging from results' - Labour council leader Helen Holland_

I can spot one. Can anyone else?


----------



## big eejit (May 3, 2013)

Now that is a good speech from the Birthday Party bloke.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Where else can they lose then? I reckon Henleaze has gone Tory. Can they lose Cotham or Redland?


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

big eejit said:


> Now that is a good speech from the Birthday Party bloke.


I turned the sound down, what's he saying?


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Where else can they lose then? I reckon Henleaze has gone Tory. Can they lose Cotham or Redland?


They can lose eastville.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> They can lose eastville.


Course they can! Oops


----------



## big eejit (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> I turned the sound down, what's he saying?


 
Don't gentrify the city and lose Bristol's unique appeal, stuff the parking ban cos some people have to live in vans on the streets cos they can't afford housing, something about Syria....


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Horfield is next


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> They can lose eastville.


Lockleaze is surely a gonner as well?


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Where else can they lose then? I reckon Henleaze has gone Tory. Can they lose Cotham or Redland?


 
Henleaze was never really Lib Dem, it was Dennis and Rosalie Brown, who happened to be Lib Dems. I'm surprised they've held a seat there as long as they have after that couple's departure.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Ashley:
*Rob Telford* Green Party   1223 34.54
Mary Caroline Southcott Labour Party Candidate   1056 29.82
Jon Charles Rogers Liberal Democrat   1008 28.47
Iain Jenkins Dennis The Conservative Party Candidate   101 2.85
Karl Belizaire Independents for Bristol   76 2.15
Tom Baldwin Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts   49 1.38
Dave Dobbs The Birthday Party   28 0.79


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Lockleaze is surely a gonner as well?


You would think so given the current state of play.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Turnouts so far:
Ashley: 31.77%
Avonmouth: 28.37%
Bishopston: 33.93%
Cabot: 17.29%
Clifton: 26.80%
Clifton East: 19.78%
Easton: 30.70%
Kingsweston: 28.69%


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Tories hold Horfield, Lib Dems nowhere


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

DaveCinzano said:


> View attachment 32131
> 
> The Last Supper


We fewer. We happy fewer. We band of utterly fucked


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

So, another lib-dem on the pile.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> So, another lib-dem on the pile.


Whoops, yeah Horfield was Lib Dem wasn't it? Labour only ten behind the Tories

*Claire Michelle Hiscott* The Conservative Party Candidate   721 28.57
Oliver Mead Labour Party Candidate   711 28.17
Cheryl Ann Liberal Democrat   579 22.94
Oliver Randall Mochizuki Independents for Bristol   241 9.55
Jude English Green Party   237 9.39
John Yeandle Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts   35 1.39


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Lockleaze on the way now

Labour gain from Lib Dem


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Bugger, looks like eastville is letting everyone down.


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

Guy Poultney's demise means George F has to choose a new cabinet member now. He's previously promised a place to Daniella, I wonder if he'll stick by that.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Bugger, looks like eastville is letting everyone down.


my thoughts are with you at this difficult time


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Gerry1time said:


> Guy Poultney's demise means George F has to choose a new cabinet member now. He's previously promised a place to Daniella, I wonder if he'll stick by that.


She has to be a better bet than Gus


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

DaveCinzano said:


> View attachment 32130
> 
> Most Dysfunctional Family (Ashley Ward), 2013



It seemed a pretty dysfunctional campaign at times


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> She has to be a better bet than Gus


 
I wonder if he'll keep Gus and take her on as well. He'd previously said he was basing the Cabinet positions on Mayor election vote share, but he doesn't have to. Besides, who's left of any competency in the Lib Dems now who'd want to take Gus' place?


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Gerry1time said:


> I wonder if he'll keep Gus and take her on as well. He'd previously said he was basing the Cabinet positions on Mayor election vote share, but he doesn't have to. Besides, who's left of any competency in the Lib Dems now who'd want to take Gus' place?


From what I understand, it wouldn't take a great deal of competency to replace Gus


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Here's Cotham:

Lib Dem hold. Bunch of twats round there


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Lockleaze:
*Estella Tincknell* Labour Party Candidate   960 46.40
Guy James Baiden Poultney Liberal Democrat   624 30.16
Stephanie Joanne North The Conservative Party Candidate   257 12.42
Chrissy Quinnell Green Party   228 11.02


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Cotham fail too.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Cotham fail too.


And not just in terms of politics


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Hillfields now. Forgot this is a Lib Dem seat, surely going back to Labour


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> And not just in terms of politics


Too many hills, too many students and they're yuppyifing the decent pubs.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Too many hills, too many students and they're yuppyifing the decent pubs.


Indeed


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Labour storming Hillfields


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Cotham:
*Anthony Negus* Liberal Democrat Focus Team   942 41.37
Eileen Lepine Labour Party Candidate   563 24.73
Ani Stafford-Townsend Green Party   418 18.36
Christopher Morton The Conservative Party Candidate   320 14.05
Caroline Louisa Vincent Trade Unionists And Socialists Against Cuts   34 1.49


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

Crikey, Lib Dems gone from first to last in Hillfields. They must have abandoned it early on to focus on holding what seemed like their safe seats. Like Ashley.


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Put 'em on the pile over there.


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)




----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Hillfields:
*Noreen Daniels* Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate 1089 52.97
Roy Towler The Conservative Party Candidate 379 18.43
Rick Lovering Green Party 246 11.96
Matthew Gordon Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 188 9.14
Andrew Charles Brown Liberal Democrat 154 7.49

That is shocking!


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Hillfields:
> *Noreen Daniels* Labour and Co-operative Party Candidate 1089 52.97
> Roy Towler The Conservative Party Candidate 379 18.43
> Rick Lovering Green Party 246 11.96
> ...


He should've put focus team on his candidature.


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Eastville recount, bowlhead not yet safe!


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Tories hold Henbury. Bad result for Labour that


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

Henbury  - Watch Chris Windows try not to look surprised.


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

Frome Vale - The returning officer's just given the Labour guy a microphone, presumably so he an make a speech.

ETA: Yep.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Labour need Frome Vale


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Henbury:
*Chris Windows* The Conservative Party Candidate   1157 47.73
Eileen Means Labour Party Candidate   950 39.19
Mike Popham Liberal Democrat   153 6.31
Tim Malnick Green Party   134 5.53
Simon James Lewis The Birthday Party   30 1.24


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Labour win Frome Vale. UKIP 500+ votes


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Frome Vale:
*Bill Payne* Labour Party Candidate 907 34.36
Nigel Currie The Conservative Party Candidate 872 33.03
Steve Wood UKIP 573 21.70
John Hills Green Party 144 5.45
Daniel Alexander Kelly Liberal Democrat 108 4.09
Philip John Bishop Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 36 1.36

Lib Dems once again vanishingly small


----------



## Geri (May 3, 2013)

I knew a Nigel Currie when I was in the Labour Party - wonder if it is the same one?! Ooh, it is! Hahahaha no wonder we never got on, secret Tory prick.

The TUSC should really give it up, their results are embarrassingly bad.


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Geri said:


> I knew a Nigel Currie when I was in the Labour Party - wonder if it is the same one?!
> 
> The TUSC should really give it up, their results are embarrassingly bad.


Stop signing their papers then!!


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Geri said:


> I knew a Nigel Currie when I was in the Labour Party - wonder if it is the same one?!
> 
> The TUSC should really give it up, their results are embarrassingly bad.


Grey hair, specs.


----------



## Geri (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Grey hair, specs.


 
Yeah, I just Googled him. We used to despise each other.


----------



## Geri (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Stop signing their papers then!!


 


If they want to waste their money, it's up to them.


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Geri said:


> If they want to waste their money, it's up to them.


Is free


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

Is it just me, or is that all the unpredictable seats announced now? The rest should all just be holds based on the results so far.


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Eastville!!!


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Henleaze!


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

Oh yeah, oops.


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

I'd call Henleaze going Tory tbf. Eastville Labour.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

St George East may be interesting, poss Labour gain. Extent of Lib Dem collapse in Lawrence Hill & Southmead may provide entertainment


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

How long does it take to weigh the Tory vote in Westbury and Stoke Bishop ffs?


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Gerry1time said:


> I'd call Henleaze going Tory tbf. Eastville Labour.


No question re: Henleaze. Will be interesting to see how far the Lib Dems have receded there though


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

My guess would be by about one metric fuckton.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Ooooh, Eastville next!


----------



## big eejit (May 3, 2013)

Be interesting to see The Bristolian take on Ashley Ward - Sir Gus gains a trusty squire, Brave Sir Robin.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Mhairi's eager to get up on stage...


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

fucking lib-dem shambles, take your place ffs.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

He's not there is he?


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Woah!


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

By 1!!


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

is Comer sulking somewhere?


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Fucking hell


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

Wow, closer than I thought. Not quite as close as Avonmouth that time though.

Wouldn't it be funny if Comer forgot to vote for himself.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Gerry1time said:


> Wow, closer than I thought. Not quite as close as Avonmouth that time though.
> 
> Wouldn't it be funny if Comer forgot to vote for himself.


Ah yes - Naysmith beating Spud on drawing of lots


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Graceful chap this comer bowl-headed prick isn't he?


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Confirmation:

Eastville
*Mhairi Threlfall* Labour Party Candidate   1021 39.50
Steven Robert Comer Liberal Democrat Focus Team   1020 39.46
Mike Williams The Conservative Party Candidate   237 9.17
Josie McLellan Green Party   223 8.63
Mark Baker Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts   84 3.25


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Excellent, Green collapse too. I can now look people in the eye.


----------



## fractionMan (May 3, 2013)

1 vote lol


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

I'm suggesting that the bristolian and identify find the errant lib-dem non-voter next issue.


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Josie McLellan Green Party 223 8.63


 
Sounds a little...scottish?


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Sounds a little...scottish?


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

There is one scottish person in eastville who comer's relentless tide of anti-jock rants put off, and voted against the bowl headed twat as a result  - we must find him or her.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> There is one scottish person in eastville who comer's relentless tide of anti-jock rants put off, we must find him or her.


You're on the spot, get out there


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> You're on the spot, get out there


I shall  try the queens head later. Commitment to research.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Flypost the area. Like them lost cat posters


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Good idea: _have you seen/are you the lost lib-dem voter?_ Pic of Colin firth and nick clegg striding out of a yuppie cafe together. _Lost: one lib-dem voter_. _ If so please call a barber._

I bet he was so arrogant he forgot to vote for himself.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Redland's up now

The dicks


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

Not bad by Bristol Independents in Westbury. Surprised UKIP didn't stand there tbh.


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

Well I never, Henleaze hold.


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Henleaze:
*Glenise Sweeting Morgan* Liberal Democrat 1559 44.49
Kevin Michael Staples The Conservative Party Candidate 1245 35.53
Barry Thompson Trahar Labour Party Candidate 439 12.53
Jane Devlin Green Party 261 7.45

Surprised


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Redland:
*Fi Hance* Liberal Democrat   881 32.82
Martin Fodor Green Party   590 21.98
Philip Jardine Labour Party Candidate   535 19.93
Graham Roger Godwin-Pearson The Conservative Party Candidate   448 16.69
Christine Thomas UKIP   200 7.45
Martyn Joseph Ahmet Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts   30 1.12


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Westbury-on-Trym:
*Geoffrey Richard Gollop* The Conservative Party Candidate   1742 51.00
Helen Louise Mott Independents for Bristol   800 23.42
Gillian Kirk Labour Party Candidate   424 12.41
Graham Christopher Donald Liberal Democrat   290 8.49
Alex Dunn Green Party   160 4.68


----------



## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

Looks like the Greens have got themselves some new seats to target too.

Also, it might be interesting that Lawrence Hill is being left so late. Another close result?


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

St George East:

*Steve Pearce* Labour Party Candidate 1056 50.02
Edward Alan Cullen The Conservative Party Candidate 580 27.48
Don Brown Green Party 233 11.04
Paul Elvin Liberal Democrat 132 6.25
Mike Luff Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts 110 5.21

Labour gain from Tory and by a hefty margin


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Stoke Bishop:

*Peter John Abraham* The Conservative Party Candidate   1724 68.39
Jasvant Singh Badesha Labour Party Candidate   307 12.18
Mary Elizabeth Page Liberal Democrat   276 10.95
Geoff Collard Green Party   214 8.49


----------



## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

Lawrence Hill - Labour candidate Jama looking very smug... (And holding an ominous piece of paper)


----------



## JTG (May 3, 2013)

And Malik's gone missing


----------



## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

DaveCinzano said:


> Lawrence Hill - Labour candidate Jama looking very smug... (And holding an ominous piece of paper)


Name them Jama, name them!!


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## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

Lawrence Hill

UKIP - 324
Labour - 1,300
TUSC - 66
Tory - 121
Lib Dem - 274!!!
Greens - 207
IfB - 227!!!


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## gentlegreen (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Geoff Collard Green Party


What a curiously appropriate surname.


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Labour annihilating all comers in Lawrence Hill. We can safely say the Lib Dem era there is safely in the past


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

St George West:

*Ron Stone* Labour Party Candidate   1052 46.71
Philip John Collins UKIP   520 23.09
Tony Potter Liberal Democrat Focus Team   284 12.61
Ben Appleby Green Party   174 7.73
Sarah Helen Cleave The Conservative Party Candidate   168 7.46
Bernie Lyons Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts   54 2.40


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Only Southmead left


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Only Southmead left


When it comes down to it, to the nitty gritty, isn't this always the case?


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Indeed

Lawrence Hill:
*Hibaq Jama* Labour Party Candidate   1300 51.61
Pete Brown UKIP   324 12.86
Abdul Raoof Malik Liberal Democrat   274 10.88
Christine Townsend Independents for Bristol   227 9.01
Chloe Somers Green Party   207 8.22
David Lewis The Conservative Party Candidate   121 4.80
Fiona Joyce Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts   66 2.62


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

And here's Southmead. Safely labour there, Lib Dem wipeout!


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## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Christine Townsend Independents for Bristol 227 9.01


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## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

Southmead:

Labour - 1,199
Tories - 376
Green - 178
Lib Dem - 123!!!
TUSC - 81


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## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

Overall:

Lab - 28
Lib Dems - 23
Tories - 14
Greens - 4
IfB -1


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

DaveCinzano said:


> Southmead:
> 
> Labour - 1,199
> Tories - 376
> ...


Remember, they won Southmead just three years ago


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

LibDemageddon and Glos are sailing home in the cricket. Great day to be Bristolian


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Highest TUSC vote in eastville?


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Vote share across the 23 wards electing:

*LABOUR* 17755 30.34%
*CONSERVATIVE* 13712 23.43%
*LIBDEM* 12203 20.85%
*GREEN* 8055 13.76%
*INDEPENDENTS FOR BRISTOL* 3443 5.88%
*UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY* 2436 4.16%
*TRADE UNIONISTS AND SOCIALISTS* 867 1.48%
*THE BIRTHDAY PARTY* 58 0.10%


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Turnout:
Ashley 31.77%
Avonmouth 28.37%
Bishopston 33.93%
Cabot 17.29%
Clifton 26.80%
Clifton East 19.78%
Cotham 23.79%
Easton 30.70%
Eastville 28.74%
Frome Vale 29.73%
Henbury 29.63%
Henleaze 43.42%
Hillfields 21.07%
Horfield 25.70%
Kingsweston 28.69%
Lawrence Hill 21.82%
Lockleaze 24.53%
Redland 29.81%
St George East 22.41%
St George West 25.47%
Southmead 22.85%
Stoke Bishop 30.59%
Westbury-on-Trym 41.08%            
Pretty shit really


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

And finally, Gloucestershire have won by 9 wickets. Rejoice


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> And finally, Gloucestershire have won by 9 wickets. Rejoice


A pint is in order i think.


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## big eejit (May 3, 2013)

Thanks for that JTG. Useful thread. And entertaining.


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> A pint is in order i think.


absolutely!


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

big eejit said:


> Thanks for that JTG. Useful thread. And entertaining.


Cheers  After all that, Ferguson still runs the show and I didn't even vote. But it was kinda fun


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## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Vote share across the 23 wards electing:
> 
> *LABOUR* 17755 30.34%
> *CONSERVATIVE* 13712 23.43%
> ...


 
By way of comparison with the well-funded, George-backed, Martin Bell seal-of-approval middle class IfB, ten years ago a dozen people stood on a _Bristolian_ ticket (including places like Clifton, just for a laugh).

They took 2,560 votes, or 3.83% of the total vote, and came in 5th place overall (having contested fewer seats than the Greens who came in 4th). Their combined vote was better than the total of all the other parties (BNP, Socialist Alliance, SLP, Socialist Alternative and independents).

*Easton*: 2003 Jane Nicholl polled 427 votes (15.20%) for the Bristolian Party (3rd); 2013 Jane Westhead polled 267 votes (9.31%) for IfB (4th)
*Lawrence Hill*: 2003 Julien Weston polled 215 votes (8.66%) for the Bristolian Party (3rd place); 2013 Christine Townsend polled 227 votes (9.01%) for IfB (4th place)
*Ashley*: 2003 Darryl Wandless polled 343 votes (10.87%) for the Bristolian Party (3rd place); 2013 Karl Belizaire polled 76 votes (2.15%) for IfB (5th place)


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Initial indicative turnout is 27.5%, to be confirmed soon

Vote share four years ago when the same wards were contested:

*LIBDEM * 35.01%
*CONSERVATIVE* 26.02%
*LABOUR* 18.88%
*GREEN* 14.32%
*BNP* 3.33%
*ENGLISH DEMOCRATS * 1.60%
*RESPECT * 0.84%

Leaves Labour up 11 points, Tories down 2.5, Lib Dems down 14 and Greens down 0.5. Greens clearly benefiting this time from collapsing Lib Dems and perhaps better targeting of seats/more experienced campaigners now they've got used to this seat winning thing rather than any great growth in their vote. I'm seeing some excitable Green comments on social media (understandable given they've doubled their seats), but their vote share has been static at every election over the last few years


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Or lib-dems and greens being the same demon in different bodies.


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Or lib-dems and green being the same demon in different bodies.


To a large extent, yeah. Certainly as far as the muesli face of the Lib Dems goes anyway


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

DaveCinzano said:


> By way of comparison with the well-funded, George-backed, Martin Bell seal-of-approval middle class IfB, ten years ago a dozen people stood on a _Bristolian_ ticket (including places like Clifton, just for a laugh).
> 
> They took 2,560 votes, or 3.83% of the total vote, and came in 5th place overall (having contested fewer seats than the Greens who came in 4th). Their combined vote was better than the total of all the other parties (BNP, Socialist Alliance, SLP, Socialist Alternative and independents).
> 
> ...


Not that you've been sitting on those results from 10 years ago waiting to wheel them out or anything


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

The key % is those that they stood in, which is far higher than 3% - it was around 10%.


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> The key % is those that they stood in, which is far higher than 3% - it was around 10%.


Good point yeah. I may have gone wrong, hold on


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Right, I make it 8.27% in the wards the Bristolian stood in

Strange going through some of those results from ten years ago. Greens polling a couple of hundred in Ashley and Daniella Radice managing 62 in Hengrove


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## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Right, I make it 8.27% in the wards the Bristolian stood in
> 
> Strange going through some of those results from ten years ago. Greens polling a couple of hundred in Ashley and Daniella Radice managing 62 in Hengrove


...Plus the Lib Dems' kiddy-fiddler winning Lawrence Hill with just shy of half the votes


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

DaveCinzano said:


> ...Plus the Lib Dems' kiddy-fiddler winning Lawrence Hill with just shy of half the votes


It was a different world...


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Bright possibilities for more Lib Dem slaughter next year. Bishopston, Brislington West, Hengrove, Horfield, Kingsweston, Knowle, Lockleaze, Whitchurch Park and Windmill Hill all look ripe. Push the weirdoes back into their caves twixt the Whiteladies and Gloucester Roads


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## DaveCinzano (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Bright possibilities for more Lib Dem slaughter next year....Kingsweston...


 
TBF Jason Budd is essentially a Lib Dem beneath an IfB beard... Roll on 2016!


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

DaveCinzano said:


> TBF Jason Budd is essentially a Lib Dem beneath an IfB beard... Roll on 2016!


I still don't understand what's going on in Kingsweston. Many years since I lived there but even so


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## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> I still don't understand what's going on in Kingsweston. Many years since I lived there but even so


 
I suspect it's to do with the lowest ever turnout for that ward, combined with no-one really targeting it, letting IfB come through the middle.


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Gerry1time said:


> I suspect it's to do with the lowest ever turnout for that ward, combined with no-one really targeting it, letting IfB come through the middle.


It should still be natural Labour territory though. Having said that, Lawrence Weston was always the forgotten estate when I lived there and it still is now so what you say rings true a little


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Press Association:



> Tories and Liberal Democrats could be on course to successfully defend key seats in Bristol at the next general election, a Press Association survey of city voting revealed today.
> Adding up ballots cast in the council polls suggests Conservatives are more than 2,000 votes ahead of Labour in the North West constituency - which was a three-party marginal in 2010.
> But Lib Dems would have won by a margin of just 84 in Bristol West which they held comfortably in the general election.
> Tories will be cheered at being ahead in Bristol North West which they gained at the last election.
> ...


Thing is Williams, not everyone in Bristol West is as thick as you. All them Green & Independent votes in your constituency? Going Labour in 2015, same as they did in 1997 and 2001


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Labour voters just sitting back. They're taking these seats easily in 2015.


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Labour voters just sitting back. They're taking these seats easily in 2015.


Which one's Westbury in next time? It switches back and forth every election


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

So, how did I do?



JTG said:


> My predictions, based on gut instinct:
> Ashley - too close to call. Jon Rogers' personal vote to keep him in contention against the Green challenge
> Avonmouth - Labour gain
> Bishopston - Lib Dem hold, just. Daniella Radice to finish a strong second for the Greens
> ...


 
14 correct and 8 wrong. I sat on the fence with Ashley.
Given a few of these were pretty obvious calls, turns out I don't know as much as I thought I did


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## Geri (May 3, 2013)

I think you did pretty well!


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

Geri said:


> I think you did pretty well!


Ta. Did say the Greens would be close in Bishopston and that they'd go second in Easton so not too bad! One or two of the results genuinely flummoxed me but the IfB and UKIP votes in one or two areas made it hard to call


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## BlackArab (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Sounds about right in terms of neighbourhood splits. Do you reckon what's left of the Labour vote in Ashley is concentrated in St Pauls as well? Can remember when it regularly returned two Labour councillors...


 
Was surprised to see Lab beating Jon into 2nd place as she came across very poor on the doorstep and managed to talk her way out of my vote but I'm guessing national politics were present in minds when they voted. Hard to say where Labour's vote is concentrated or even if it is as they're not visibly active in these parts any more and there's been a big shift in demographics in Ashley. 

Drop in turnout is interesting and explains a lot as to why it didn't feel much like an election was happening.

2 May 2013 3550 (31.77%) 11173
5 May 2011 5193 (49.64%) 10462
4 Jun 2009 4146 (43.55%) 9521
3 May 2007 3322 (36.12%) 9197
5 May 2005 5452 (63.57%) 8577
http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=wardindex&WardId=1


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

3rd place i think. Better than the rat deserves.


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## BlackArab (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Confirmation:
> 
> Eastville
> *Mhairi Threlfall* Labour Party Candidate 1021 39.50
> ...


 
Didn't realise on of my old uni lecturers was standing for the Greens!


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

Is she a jock?


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

BlackArab said:


> Was surprised to see Lab beating Jon into 2nd place as she came across very poor on the doorstep and managed to talk her way out of my vote but I'm guessing national politics were present in minds when they voted. Hard to say where Labour's vote is concentrated or even if it is as they're not visibly active in these parts any more and there's been a big shift in demographics in Ashley.
> 
> Drop in turnout is interesting and explains a lot as to why it didn't feel much like an election was happening.
> 
> ...


Again, sounds about right. Think Ashley probably has a more transient population than it used to perhaps? More students, young professionals, house shares and whatnot. Have only seen Labour posters in the windows of Grosvenor Road shops recently, though did see one or two up round St Andrews Park this year.



BlackArab said:


> Didn't realise on of my old uni lecturers was standing for the Greens!


_Scottish_ you know


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Is she a jock?


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## BlackArab (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Is she a jock?


 
Northern Irish I thought.


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

The plot thickens


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

BlackArab said:


> Northern Irish I thought.


That must be even worse on the steve comer scale of _being an outsider?_


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> That must be even worse on the steve comer scale of _being an outsider?_


I heard someone at the Thatcher party in Easton was from Fishponds


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> I heard someone at the Thatcher party in Easton was from Fishponds


I thought i saw one too, a tail disappearing round a corner.


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## JTG (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> I thought i saw one too, a tail disappearing round a corner.


I think I know who it was


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## BlackArab (May 3, 2013)

JTG said:


> Again, sounds about right. Think Ashley probably has a more transient population than it used to perhaps? More students, young professionals, house shares and whatnot. Have only seen Labour posters in the windows of Grosvenor Road shops recently, though did see one or two up round St Andrews Park this year.


 
Wouldn't say it was more transient than ever as a ward. St Andrews is pretty much the way it has been for decades. More a continuous shifting over the last 50 years or so in St Pauls and Montpelier. St Werbs has become permanently gentrified.


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## BlackArab (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> That must be even worse on the steve comer scale of _being an outsider?_


 
I'd guess that non-Bristolians outnumber Bristolians in local politics with the Uni being a regular breeding ground.


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

BlackArab said:


> I'd guess that non-Bristolians outnumber Bristolians in local politics with the Uni being a regular breeding ground.


Says a lot does't it? A class of post-uni specialists who happen to be in the town rather than growing up and through it, whilst everyone else turns their back.


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## BlackArab (May 3, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Says a lot does't it? A class of post-uni specialists who happen to be in the town rather than growing up and through it, whilst everyone else turns their back.


 
Yep we also love a good 'I fell in love in with this city as a student blah blah blah' story in these parts.


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## BlackArab (May 3, 2013)

I blame Massive Attack for the influx of political oppressors.


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## butchersapron (May 3, 2013)

BlackArab said:


> I blame Massive Attack for the influx of political oppressors.


They must be held largely responsible.


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## Gerry1time (May 3, 2013)

BlackArab said:


> Hard to say where Labour's vote is concentrated or even if it is as they're not visibly active in these parts any more


 
My impression of Labour campaigning these days is that it's not about leaflets and door knocking, but much more about phone calls, targeted emails and all the rest. Tories did the same in the last GE, and I suspect the 2015 GE will be chock full of this sort of thing.


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## JTG (May 4, 2013)

butchersapron said:


> Says a lot does't it? A class of post-uni specialists who happen to be in the town rather than growing up and through it, whilst everyone else turns their back.


Describes much of the cone between the Whiteladies Road and M32, excepting St Pauls. An area I spend a lot of time in but it jars with the rest of the city. Got a lot of friends round there but it has the feel of a ghetto, albeit one that dominates the rest of the city politically


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