# Android set to hit ONE MILLION activations per day this month!



## editor (Oct 4, 2011)

That's a lorra lorra devices!









> When last we hear Google speak on the number of Android devices activated per day, Larry Page declared the number at 550,000. That way way back on July 14th. Now analyst Michael DeGusta predicts that the number could reach as high as one million devices worldwide every day before the end of October. That’s a growth of nearly double in less than ninety days...
> 
> Even conservative estimates put the number of worldwide activations at at least 1,000,000 a day by December.
> 
> http://androidcommunity.com/android...n-activations-a-day-by-october-20th-20111003/


----------



## elbows (Oct 4, 2011)

So maybe not this month then.

Sad advertorial use of capitals in the post title by the way, real depressing to see. What a way to go.


----------



## editor (Oct 4, 2011)

elbows said:


> Sad advertorial use of capitals in the post title by the way, real depressing to see. What a way to go.


I do hope you can get over this terrible caps-induced sadness.

(((elbows)))


----------



## elbows (Oct 4, 2011)

I will struggle bravely on.

Have you gotten this excited about the success of other sorts of products in the past (e.g. non-IT ones), or is this whole Android thing a new phenomenon for you?


----------



## elbows (Oct 4, 2011)

I was just reading about Adobes new tablet apps, and how Photoshop Touch may be out for Android months before iPad. I am concerned that this may cause you to hyperventilate, or to require a form of mega-capital letters not yet invented in order to fully express the glory, the glee, the superiority, the magnitude of the win.

At this rate by 2022 Android will be the most popular name given to new babies, not that it will concern me because diminished market share of my chosen platform will make me impotent and unable to reproduce. The stake are so high, its almost impossible to overstate the ramifications of this stuff, honest.


----------



## elbows (Oct 4, 2011)

Although to be fair figures like a million of anything per day are a bit mind-boggling. It got me thinking about how many mobile phones are out there in total. I had a quick look on wikipedia. Yikes its a lot.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_mobile_phones_in_use

UK seems to have more phones than people. But how many people have more units of alcohol per week than there are contacts in their phones address book?


----------



## editor (Oct 4, 2011)

elbows said:


> I was just reading about Adobes new tablet apps, and how Photoshop Touch may be out for Android months before iPad. I am concerned that this may cause you to hyperventilate, or to require a form of mega-capital letters not yet invented in order to fully express the glory, the glee, the superiority, the magnitude of the win.


Actually, the capitals were employed because I found the figure truly mind boggling. It's an astonishing amount of devices to be activated ever day.

Seeing as my next phone may well not even be an Android device, the rest of your post is rather off beam, and I've no idea what you're going on about with the alcohol stuff.

Have you been on it tonight, perhaps?


----------



## mrs quoad (Oct 4, 2011)

That's some properly sketchy projections 

It's, basically, 'drawing one line that goes straight and another line that goes STRAIGHT UP and calling them projections' 

If he'd made the same projections based on June to July 2010 data, we'd already be at 1,000,000 per day. And that's based on his 'most conservative' type of projection straight-line-drawing


----------



## elbows (Oct 4, 2011)

No, I rarely drink and its even rarer for me to drink & surf. But I am slightly under the weather and this has probably had some effect on how I edit my thoughts as they splutter forth.


----------



## editor (Oct 4, 2011)

Ever since I POSTED this thread I CAN'T stop involuntarily BURSTING OUT in capitals, just FOR the hell of IT!


----------



## elbows (Oct 4, 2011)

Perhaps Apples announcement later will be an antidote to the capital outburst phenomenon that you are inflicted with. If the new iPhone fails to meet expectations then I anticipate more than ONE MILLION wails of anguish around the globe, as people struggle bravely to come to terms with deflated expectations.


----------



## Crispy (Oct 4, 2011)

The symptoms of the next stage of the disease are paragraphs of three sentences of short, simple words, prefaced by pithy subheadings in bold text.


----------



## elbows (Oct 4, 2011)

And if you start using the magical MARKETING POWERS of RED and BLUE fonts then the situation has become critical and the medical authorities must get involved, for at that point there is a strong risk of _underscored italics_.


----------



## editor (Oct 4, 2011)

elbows said:


> Perhaps Apples announcement later will be an antidote to the capital outburst phenomenon that you are inflicted with. If the new iPhone fails to meet expectations then I anticipate more than ONE MILLION wails of anguish around the globe, as people struggle bravely to come to terms with deflated expectations.


Unless the new Apple phone CHANGES EVERYTHING AGAIN - and this time I expect solar orbits to be altered and the laws of physics to be twisted into new post-Jobsian dimensions of awesomeness - then I shall be so deflated that I may have trouble even mustering capitalisation.


----------



## elbows (Oct 4, 2011)

I am up in the iClouds, and I can't, I can't come down.


----------



## Structaural (Oct 4, 2011)

Jesus.


----------



## Hocus Eye. (Oct 4, 2011)

Down with Capitalism.


----------



## mrs quoad (Oct 4, 2011)

fwiw and btw, based on conservative projections from 1994, one in 12 people in Chicago will be violently victimised each year by 2005.






The marginally more unfortunate trend indicates one in 3 people will be brutally savaged each year (34,000 savagings per 100,000).


----------



## Kid_Eternity (Oct 4, 2011)




----------



## Maurice Picarda (Oct 4, 2011)

Market analysts are allowed to hypothesise trend lines, Quoad. I've seen far less reasonable ones than DeGusta's.


----------



## mrs quoad (Oct 4, 2011)

Maurice Picarda said:


> Market analysts are allowed to hypothesise trend lines, Quoad. I've seen far less reasonable ones than DeGusta's.


The use of 'conservative' is still pushing it a bit!


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Oct 4, 2011)

Apparently he says it's reasonable analysis because Google said in June their activations were increasing at that rate. Well, that settles that then, I'm sure that will be the case forever.


----------



## Kanda (Oct 4, 2011)

Hope Ed doesn't run out of kleenexe...


----------



## mrs quoad (Oct 4, 2011)

FridgeMagnet said:


> Apparently he says it's reasonable analysis because Google said in June their activations were increasing at that rate. Well, that settles that then, I'm sure that will be the case forever.


tbf, he says that it's reasonable to take that as a _conservative _estimate.

The more optimistic projection just does something a bit exponential, kinda for the hell of it afaict. Well, for the hell of it, and to ensure the graph stops at a nice, round, 1.5m


----------



## editor (Oct 5, 2011)

I just thought I'd POP in as I FOUND myself with as few spare CAPS I needed TO get rid of.


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Oct 5, 2011)

Latest Gartner projection:


----------



## Kid_Eternity (Oct 5, 2011)

LOL!


----------



## editor (Oct 6, 2011)

Android is certainly wiping the floor with everyone else though, with its market share up a massive 5.6% in the last quarter.



> According to the research firm, Android remains in firm control of the smartphone platform market, commanding 43.7 percent, followed by Apple (27.3 percent) and RIM (19.7 percent). In fact, Google extended its share by nearly two points over last month's figures, while Apple's iOS grew by just 0.3 points, but further distanced itself from RIM, which now sits 7.6 points behind.
> 
> On the manufacturing side of the equation, Samsung remains top dog, accounting for 25.3 percent of all mobile subscribers (including both smartphone and feature phone users), followed by LG (21 percent) and Motorola (14 percent). Apple, meanwhile, sits a distant fourth, at 9.8 percent, followed by RIM, which rounds out the top five with 7.1 percent market share.








http://www.engadget.com/2011/10/06/comscore-android-extends-lead-over-apple-holds-44-percent-of-s/


----------



## mrs quoad (Oct 6, 2011)

editor said:


> Android is certainly wiping the floor with everyone else though, with its market share up a massive 5.6% in the last quarter.


a) interesting
b) a bit different from the 'projection' in the OP 



> Michael DeGusta predicts ... a growth of nearly double in less than ninety days.


50%, 5.6%, meh.


----------



## editor (Oct 6, 2011)

mrs quoad said:


> b) a bit different from the 'projection' in the OP


So when do you think they'll hit a billion activations per day?


----------



## editor (Nov 4, 2011)

Android is still doing good business in the States it was the only smartphone OS to gain US market share in Q3, enjoying a hefty 10% rise, taking it closer to half the smartphone market.





> Android was the only smartphone operating system to gain U.S. market share in the third quarter, growing more than 10%, Nielsen said Thursday.
> 
> Smartphones running the Android OS were used by 43% of smartphone owners in the third quarter, up from 39% in the second quarter, based on Nielsen surveys of actual users.
> 
> ...


And from the same source:


> Samsung beats Apple to top smartphone vendor spot globally in Q3
> 
> Samsung boosted its global smartphone shipments by 223% in the third quarter, taking the top spot for the first time among smartphone vendors, with Apple in second, research firm IDC has said.
> 
> ...


----------



## mrs quoad (Nov 4, 2011)

Did Android hit 1,000,000 activations per day during October, then?


----------



## editor (Nov 4, 2011)

mrs quoad said:


> Did Android hit 1,000,000 activations per day during October, then?


No idea but it must be getting close, if not.


----------



## elbows (Nov 4, 2011)

I doubt it. This is the closest I could find to an update.

http://www.unwiredview.com/2011/10/...t-activated-55-million-android-devices-in-q3/



> According to Google, there are now 190 million Android devices activated worldwide – 55 million more than in July, when the company said it had activated 135 million devices. That’s 55 million Android devices activated in the last three months (from July 14 until now – October 14), which means there has been an average of about 611,000 devices activated daily this quarter. Since we had 550k daily activations in July, that means a 10% growth – a 10% growth in 3 months, which is way below the “7% growth per week” Andy Rubin was talking about in June, but still impressive in absolute numbers.
> Of course, as I already said, 611k devices activated per day is just the average for the last three months. Right now, it’s quite possible that the number is higher (maybe close to 650k per day), especially with the launch of theSamsung Galaxy S II in the US via AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile.


----------



## skyscraper101 (Nov 4, 2011)

Andoird seems to be pretty big here. Certainly the most popular OS on smartphones I've seen.


----------



## London_Calling (Nov 7, 2011)

This is becoming a form of evangelism.


----------



## editor (Nov 7, 2011)

London_Calling said:


> This is becoming a form of evangelism.


What is?


----------



## Kid_Eternity (Nov 11, 2011)

London_Calling said:


> This is becoming a form of evangelism.



Becoming?


----------



## editor (Sep 5, 2012)

Update: Android's now running at 1.3 million activations per day, with half a billion devices worldwide.


----------



## mrs quoad (Sep 5, 2012)

editor said:


> Update: Android's now running at 1.3 million activations per day, with half a billion devices worldwide.


I'm not sure that suggests that the graph / 'projection' in the OP was _entirely _accurate.







Unless it was intended as a statement of 'it'll probably get there at some point,' and the timeframes / 'projected rates' were mostly put in for decorative interest.

e2a: I was trying to find data on how accurate the above 'projections' were to the end of 2011. Erm. One of the first hits I'm finding suggests that Android was hitting 900,000 activations in June this year according to a tweet by Google's Android chief?

The fuck has happened since then? Or was that excluding tablet activations, or similar?


----------



## editor (Sep 5, 2012)

Who cares, it's a pretty graph.


----------



## mrs quoad (Sep 6, 2012)

editor said:


> Who cares, it's a pretty graph.


Going by your thread title, it's somewhere between 8 and 11 months out* on a one-month projection, ed 


*depending on when android crossed the 1m mark. Only figures I've found are 900k (consistently cited by a number of sites) in June, 1.3m now.

E2a: and the 'less conservative' projection the title cites, if continued, is currently about 2.45m activations per day wide of the mark  that'd be wrong, by a factor of three


----------



## editor (Sep 6, 2012)

mrs quoad said:


> *depending on when android crossed the 1m mark. Only figures I've found are 900k (consistently cited by a number of sites) in June, 1.3m now.


I'm amazed you can be arsed to even look it up, tbh.


----------



## mrs quoad (Sep 6, 2012)

editor said:


> I'm amazed you can be arsed to even look it up, tbh.


Projections are far better when they're fact-free and never revisited?


----------



## editor (Sep 6, 2012)

mrs quoad said:


> Projections are far better when they're fact-free and never revisited?


I really can't get that excited about a single projection that's nearly a year old, but if that's your bag, you'll find lots of similarly ancient inaccurate projections scattered around multiple threads here, all awaiting your crucial updates and corrections. Have fun!


----------



## mrs quoad (Sep 6, 2012)

editor said:


> Update: Android's now running at 1.3 million activations per day, with half a billion devices worldwide.


^^^ one-year bump.


editor said:


> I really can't get that excited about a single projection that's nearly a year old...


^^^ response when flagrant inaccuracy of the title / OP (referenced in one-year bump) is pointed out.


----------



## editor (Sep 6, 2012)

mrs quoad said:


> ^^^ one-year bump.
> 
> ^^^ response when flagrant inaccuracy of the title / OP (referenced in one-year bump) is pointed out.


The one year bump was to _correct_ the original claim. Not sure why it needed your additional observations.

Will you be doing the same for the many other older projection threads or is it just this one Android one that interests you?


----------



## mrs quoad (Sep 6, 2012)

editor said:


> Will you be doing the same for the many other older projection threads or is it just this one Android one that interests you?


tbf, this was the thread that came to mind when you were criticising someone else / A.N.Other source for making ridiculous claims about iPhone sales. I had no intention of bumping it / seeking it out, as bumping it might've looked like deliberately picking an argument. Which I had no intention of doing.

But when you then bumped it, having - a day before - been ridiculing A.N.Other absurd claim, and emphasising that you'd never do something similar, yeah - it struck me that the inconsistency was worth pointing out


----------



## editor (Sep 6, 2012)

mrs quoad said:


> tbf, this was the thread that came to mind when you were criticising someone else / A.N.Other source for making ridiculous claims about iPhone sales.


Ah, so it was all about making a Big Point, even though it was about an entirely different set of circumstances on a different thread.

How very tiresome. I thought everyone was trying to move on from this kind of needlessly disruptive behaviour?


----------



## mrs quoad (Sep 6, 2012)

editor said:


> Ah, so it was all about making a Big Point, even though it was about an entirely different set of circumstances on a different thread.
> 
> How very tiresome. I thought everyone was trying to move on from this kind of needlessly disruptive behaviour?


Poor _you. _

With your one-year 'accidental' bump.


----------



## EastEnder (Sep 6, 2012)

editor said:


> Update: Android's now running at 1.3 million activations per day, with half a billion devices worldwide.


Presumably no one really knows what proportion of those activations represent first time Android adopters, compared to things like phone replacements / upgrades. Given how frequently people change their phone, and assuming the majority of smartphone users choose to stick with their preferred platform, it seems imprudent to base the estimate of the number of Google powered devices on the sum of their activations. There may indeed be 500 million Google powered devices out there, but I'll bet at least 50 million of them are already languishing at the back of draws, having been usurped by a shinier model!


----------



## editor (Sep 6, 2012)

This thread is nearly a year old. I'd updated the figures myself and yet you're still desperately trying to score cross-thread points on a vaguely related (and hopelessly mismatched) argument.

I think you need to look into the mirror a bit when you're accusing others of trolling because this is exactly the kind of personal crap that keeps dragging this forum down.

Please stop.


----------



## editor (Sep 6, 2012)

EastEnder said:


> Presumably no one really knows what proportion of those activations represent first time Android adopters, compared to things like phone replacements / upgrades. Given how frequently people change their phone, and assuming the majority of smartphone users choose to stick with their preferred platform, it seems imprudent to base the estimate of the number of Google powered devices on the sum of their activations. There may indeed be 500 million Google powered devices out there, but I'll bet at least 50 million of them are already languishing at the back of draws, having been usurped by a shinier model!


I think that's true when estimating any market share, but it does at least give an indication of how many phone shave been shifted.

Here's an interesting observation on Android's growth [Forbes June 2012]:


> Just another little piece of evidence that the smartphone is almost certainly the technology which is penetrating the marketplace the fastest. Of all technologies we’ve ever had that is.
> 
> Google has let slip that Android activations are running at just under 1 million a day:
> 
> ...


----------



## mrs quoad (Sep 6, 2012)

Well, then! Let us make a shared declaration of universal intent!

I am against wildly ridiculous statistical speculation and projections wrt *all* platforms!

Windows 8, Android, and iOS! Symbian! Other! Be they patently absurd trends based on temporary peaks, or *entirely* speculative projections!

Let us acclaim the value of measured reason! And the value of the 'line that takes into account multiple factors and doesn't just continue in a straight line from the last data point!'

Doing so will surely eliminate even the vaguest potential for suggestions of hypocrisy, irrespective of platform!

I'm there! Let me declaim! Are ya with me, ed? Are ya with me?


----------



## editor (Mar 14, 2013)

Android activations are now running at around 1.35 million daily. 750 million devices in total have been activated. 25 billion apps have been downloaded from Google Play

http://googleblog.blogspot.co.uk/2013/03/update-from-ceo.html
http://androidcommunity.com/larry-p...-million-android-device-activations-20130313/


----------



## editor (Sep 3, 2013)

Android has now passed 1 billion activations, with at least 1.5 million more activations per day.


----------



## dervish (Sep 4, 2013)

So how do they actually count the activations? Is it by device purchased or when you load your profile/setup a new profile on a new device/ROM?

Cos if it's the latter (which would make more sense) I'm personally responsible for well over 200 activations over the years I've had android. Cyanogenmod gets thousands of new installations per day for the nightlies, although thinking about those, unless you wipe you will be using the same credentials so it might not count them. 

Either way 1.5 million activations per day is a lot, 1.5 million sales a day is astronomical!


----------



## editor (Sep 4, 2013)

dervish said:


> So how do they actually count the activations? Is it by device purchased or when you load your profile/setup a new profile on a new device/ROM?
> 
> Cos if it's the latter (which would make more sense) I'm personally responsible for well over 200 activations over the years I've had android.


I don't think many consumers are like you on this score 

Anyway, your total wouldn't count anyway:


> When a new Android device with a cellular radio has a Google account signed into it, it's counted as an activation. Each device only gets counted once -- not when you flash a new ROM, or when you sell it, just the first time the device is registered.
> http://www.androidcentral.com/andy-rubin-not-leaving-google-over-900000-android-activations-daily


----------



## dervish (Sep 4, 2013)

editor said:


> I don't think many consumers are like you on this score
> 
> Anyway, your total wouldn't count anyway:



Fair enough, wow, that is a lot of new devices! From that it would also not be counting tablets either.


----------

