# Mobile Operating Systems: 3 will become 2



## paolo (Feb 17, 2011)

A few years ago I posted a prediction - that the plethora of mobile operating systems wouldn't continue. I argued that history has shown - whether it be in consoles or desktop PCs - the market will consolidate to a maximum of three options.

To my surprise, a few a people were adamant there would be no change to mix as was then. How could WinMo go away, or Symbian, and with WebOS being so good, how could that fail.

My prediction was: Apple, RIM (easy picks) and Android (as a best guess, it was barely released at the time).

So, by luck or judgement, that's exactly where we're at. Symbian, WebOS, WinMo, WinPho7, Mego (sp?), etc are all either the living dead or actually buried.

Well done me ... *but* I'm going to make another prediction...

In three years, we will be down to two living and breathing operating Systems. Android will be massively dominant, effectively becoming the equivalent of Windows. Apple will hold a niche in the premium space.

RIM will be at deaths door.

"Impossible! They're huge!"

RIM are not too big to fail. They have poor traction with consumers.

Teen sales can be likened to Nokia's volume ship to developing markets - flattering, but not high margin and not strategic.

Corporate sales carry inertia. The kit sold to a large enterprise today, is largely the product of decisions made years ago. The sales RIM sees today are not based on today's position. Android and/or iOS, based on user-choice, will become unstoppable in corporate environments.

Just as renegade departmental PCs usurped centrally dictated mainframes, users preferences about phones will increasingly undermine RIM's position.

Agree? Disagree? Name the dominant platforms in three years. Think the unthinkable.


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## Hocus Eye. (Feb 17, 2011)

I am quite happy to watch what happens in the present. I don't see any point in trying to guess the future. Something may replace mobile phones all together.


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## UnderAnOpenSky (Feb 17, 2011)

What I think will be interesting is the knock on effect to Microsoft if they throw in a ton of resources it push WP7 and it fails.

The unthinkable?

Web OS & Meego


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## paolo (Feb 17, 2011)

Global Stoner said:


> What I think will be interesting is the knock on effect to Microsoft if they throw in a ton of resources it push WP7 and it fails.



Like teaming up with Nokia? I'm betting that won't work.
The unthinkable?



> Web OS & Meego



That's being silly


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## RaverDrew (Feb 17, 2011)

Global Stoner said:


> What I think will be interesting is the knock on effect to Microsoft if they throw in a ton of resources it push WP7 and it fails.
> 
> The unthinkable?
> 
> Web OS & Meego



The thing is they are imo the best two platforms out there, just that they've been completely mismanaged and marketed poorly. And I agree with paolo that it's almost certainly too late to revive them to the level that they could compete with Android and iOS.


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## UnderAnOpenSky (Feb 17, 2011)

paolo999 said:


> Like teaming up with Nokia? I'm betting that won't work.



I'm hoping that Nokia realize that they're strength is in hardware and create both WP7 & Android phones, like HTC do.

Edit: In fact wouldn't it be great if consumers chose what OS they put on their phone?


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## grit (Feb 17, 2011)

Global Stoner said:


> I'm hoping that Nokia realize that they're strength is in hardware and create both WP7 & Android phones, like HTC do.
> 
> Edit: In fact wouldn't it be great if consumers chose what OS they put on their phone?


 
I'd imagine that the Microsoft announcement has killed any chance of nokia ever producing an android handset.


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## UnderAnOpenSky (Feb 17, 2011)

grit said:


> I'd imagine that the Microsoft announcement has killed any chance of nokia ever producing an android handset.


 
Times can change...if WP7 turns out to be a flop, they won't have many options left. Any chance that meego had is now dead.


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## grit (Feb 17, 2011)

Global Stoner said:


> Times can change...if WP7 turns out to be a flop, they won't have many options left. Any chance that meego had is now dead.


 
To be honest Nokia is in a position where if this windows push doesnt work, thats it, game over. At best they will sink back into the corner turning out low cost handsets for developing markets.


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## UnderAnOpenSky (Feb 17, 2011)

It would be a shame to see them go, even if they aren't one of the major players anymore. Don't they make other stuff as well for the networks is that just a tiny percentage of business? 

On a mostly unrelated note, as the high end smartphone market gets crowded, I wonder who will emerge top dog in the sub £100 handsets that will mostly replace todays "feature" phones and if they will all be android powered as well?


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