# West Country general election thread



## JTG (Apr 19, 2015)

Go on then, share your thoughts/predictions (and then results)

I'll start with where I know...

Bristol East (I live there!): easy Labour hold for Kerry McCarthy
Bristol South: Pink Dawn retires. Labour will hold easily
Bristol West: Stephen Williams has a big majority but is rumoured to be in severe trouble. Labour hoping to regain it, Lib Dems trying to squeeze the Tory vote in order to hold. Greens talking it up but I reckon Labour will make it in. Greens to score less than 10%
Bristol North West: Charlotte Leslie seems well regarded by a lot of people who don't like her party. Tory hold
Filton & Bradley Stoke: Tory hold
Kingswood: Not as Labour as it used to be thanks to boundary changes. Tories should hold
NE Somerset: I don't think Labour are doing well enough to regain this one. Rees-Mogg to hold on
Thornbury & Yate: Lib Dem/Tory marginal. Toy gain then.

Elsewhere:
Stroud: Labour gain. David Drew's standing again, he lost in 2010 on the smallest swing against him for a Labour loss on the night. Should easily overturn a small Tory majority
Forest of Dean, Tewkesbury, Cotswold all Tory holds
Cheltenham: Tory gain from Lib Dem
Gloucester: Labour gain from Tory

Weston-super-Mare, North Somerset, Bridgwater & Somerset West: Tory holds
Somerton & Frome, Wells, Taunton Deane: Tory gain from Lib Dem
Bath & Yeovil: Lib Dem holds with big swings to Tories

Exeter & Plymouth Moor View: Labour holds
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport: Labour gain from Tory
Tiverton & Honiton, Newton Abbott, Totnes, Central Devon, East Devon, South West Devon: Tory holds
North Devon & Torbay: Tory gains from Lib Dem

Bournemouth East, Bournemouth West, Christchurch, North Dorset, West Dorset, South Dorset, Poole: Tory holds
Mid Dorset & North Poole: Tory gain from Lib Dem

South East Cornwall, Truro & Falmouth: Tory holds
Camborne & Redruth: Labour gain from Tory
North Cornwall, St Austell & Newquay, St Ives: Tory gains from Lib Dem

Devizes, Salisbury, North Wiltshire, South Wiltshire, North Swindon: Tory holds
Chippenham: Tory gain from Lib Dem
South Swindon: Labour gain from Tory

Overall, region will look a lot more blue and a lot less yellow than last time

Anyone else fancy a go?


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## chilango (Apr 19, 2015)

Leslie for Bristol NW  does seem to be attracting votes for being a "good local MP". Yuk.

Lib Dems still appear strong in the far west of Cornwall  but Tories pushing them hard and Greens doing well.


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## Hocus Eye. (Apr 19, 2015)

JTG I am out of touch with West Country politics but must tell you that there is only one t at the end of Newton Abbot.

[/pedantry]

Pink Dawn is a wonderful name for a politician. It might even do for a party to the left of Labour.


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## xenon (Apr 19, 2015)

Greens might edge it in Bristol South. The Southville factor, (Green councillor) and maybe his local routes holding sway with some / enough disalusioned Labour voeters wanting a change for Tony Dyer to win.

That's not me saying I'm voting Green BTW. Probably TUSC.


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## jakethesnake (Apr 19, 2015)

I agree that Ben Bradshaw will hold Exeter for Labour... Hugo Swire (Huge Swine) will hold East Devon for the vermin. The rest? I've no idea - I'm as parochial as fuck, me.


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## JTG (Apr 19, 2015)

xenon said:


> Greens might edge it in Bristol South. The Southville factor, (Green councillor) and maybe his local routes holding sway with some / enough disalusioned Labour voeters wanting a change for Tony Dyer to win.
> 
> That's not me saying I'm voting Green BTW. Probably TUSC.


No way. Greens may have some votes in Southville but they have sod all in Knowle West, Hartcliffe, Whitchurch etc etc


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## xenon (Apr 19, 2015)

JTG said:


> No way. Greens may have some votes in Southville but they have sod all in Knowle West, Hartcliffe, Whitchurch etc etc



Yeah, you're probably right.

I've not really followed any of the local campaigns other than caught soundbites yet. Need to do some reading.


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## Voley (Apr 19, 2015)

St Ives: Andrew George hangs on by the skin of his little Lib Dem teeth. Everyone blames UKIP, including Andrew George.


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## Thora (Apr 19, 2015)

I saw someone in Knowle West with a "Vote Green" poster in their window!


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## jakethesnake (Apr 20, 2015)

Hugo Swine, the incumbent vermin for East Devon has written to the local paper whining about his seat being declared a marginal. There is this excellent response from one of the readers:
 You have to wonder why Hugo Swire is spending so much time with this issue. His record is hardly one of being committed to accuracy (e.g. his comments about the Devon County budget 'facts' ) so it can only be, I suggest, that if he thinks he can convince people that only he has a chance of being elected, that they might not vote for any other candidate. The truth of the matter is that there is one candidate who is on target to unseat him, the Independent Claire Wright. I'm afraid trying to put her potential supporters off voting for her won't work Hugo. If the seat was as safe as you claim, we wouldn't see your illegal posters all over highway verges and you wouldn't be knocking on so many doors nor would you be wasting time on this nonsense. Thanks to your history of failing to support your electorate, your expenses record, your performance at the Black and White Tory fundraiser, and many other areas, people in East Devon have come to realise that you only want to use us to further your political career. Thanks to Claire Wright, people can see a way to disprove the old saying that a donkey with a blue rosette would win this seat. Well we have had enough of donkeys, we want someone who will represent their electorate. As I expect you now know even from your door knocking, whatever the ERS says, East Devon is no longer a safe seat. The last elections stats are meaningless, we didn't have a candidate who was worth supporting. Like so very many others (old Tories included) I'm voting Claire Wright Independent. I want someone who, as she says, is free to speak and free to act, not someone who makes every excuse for not supporting East Devon residents.

Read more: http://www.exeterexpressandecho.co....tory-26360981-detail/story.html#ixzz3XsVqFEAC 
Follow us: @expressandecho on Twitter | expressecho on Facebook


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## CNT36 (Apr 20, 2015)

Voley said:


> St Ives: Andrew George hangs on by the skin of his little Lib Dem teeth. Everyone blames UKIP, including Andrew George.


If UKIP hurts the Tories a lot more than the Greens hurt him he may hold on. For a Lib Dem he's ok though I am probably more forgiving than I should be as lived across the road from him until he got elected and moved, friends with his daughter for a while and used to work with his son. He goes against the party quite often but probably not as often as the "rebel MP" swagger would have you believe.


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## JTG (Apr 20, 2015)

Thora said:


> I saw someone in Knowle West with a "Vote Green" poster in their window!


Gentrification


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## big eejit (Apr 25, 2015)

Lord Ashcroft poll for Bristol West has Labour ahead by quite a margin with Greens in second. 

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/bristol-west/


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## wiskey (May 8, 2015)

So Brizzle is a little island of red in a sea of blue across the South West. 

Local election results to come .... 

http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ElectionId=69


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## CNT36 (May 8, 2015)

Looks like St Ives will go blue. What a week to quit drinking.


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## Libertad (May 8, 2015)

Blue as far as the eye can see. We've now got a vermin MP as Dan Rogerson lost in North Cornwall. He was a LibDem but he did a lot of good constituency work and has been very supportive in my dealings with DWP.


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## CNT36 (May 8, 2015)

Yeah, the one down here's the similar. I had people down the pub handing out stickers for him because of local stuff while ripping into the lib Dems. The vermin looks like a proper cunt.


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## wiskey (May 9, 2015)

Bristol LE results are out, Greens go from 1 ward to 8, where I live remains conservative with a massive majority  

In fact if wards didn't go green everything pretty much stayed the same (1 lab gain too) :/


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## gentlegreen (May 9, 2015)

Seems like Easton got a green - so my vote wasn't wasted.
My labour vote helped eject Stephen "my mum was a dinner lady" Williams.
Thangam Debbonaire thanked my union (Unison) - I did indeed get lots of encouragement from there to vote Labour.


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## JTG (May 9, 2015)

I find the council results thoroughly depressing tbh. The Greens elected to the council thus far have not done anything remotely useful. Yes, I'm really bitter about Daniella Radice's involvement in TRASHorfield's campaign to fuck up BRFC's move to a much needed new stadium and her attempts to delay permission for the new floodlights at the County Ground which would enable international cricket to come to the city on a regular basis.

Gus Hoyt - Gus fucking Hoyt! - has been re-elected. The areas they've won in are like a definitive map of inner city middle class liberal gentrification. Even fucking Easton. I don't believe for a second that they'll consider working class Bristolians in their campaigning and the city will continue to be a complete backwater for progress.


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## JTG (May 9, 2015)

wiskey said:


> Bristol LE results are out, Greens go from 1 ward to 8, where I live remains conservative with a massive majority


Much as I dislike the man's politics, your councillor was very sweet to my dad when our mum died. I'll give him a bit of credit for that


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## Voley (May 9, 2015)

CNT36 said:
			
		

> Yeah, the one down here's the similar. I had people down the pub handing out stickers for him because of local stuff while ripping into the lib Dems. The vermin looks like a proper cunt.



I thought Andrew George might hang on for that reason too. His Cornwall Before Party line would only work up to a point though. It never stood a chance in the face of the annihilation the LibDems were facing this time round.


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## Libertad (May 9, 2015)

Voley said:


> I thought Andrew George might hang on for that reason too. His Cornwall Before Party line would only work up to a point though. It never stood a chance in the face of the annihilation the LibDems were facing this time round.



Fucking depressing though isn't it?


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## jakethesnake (May 9, 2015)

Exeter stayed Labour but all around us a sea of blue. We are the only labour seat in all of Devon and Cornwall.


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## jakethesnake (May 9, 2015)

Like the beginning bit in the Asterix books


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## JTG (May 9, 2015)

jakethesnake said:


> Exeter stayed Labour but all around us a sea of blue. We are the only labour seat in all of Devon and Cornwall.


Christ, hadn't realised even bloody Plymouth voted Tory


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## rubbershoes (May 9, 2015)

Tiverton & Honiton has been Tory every time since about 1066, and still is

At least this time the greens kept their deposit


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## big eejit (May 10, 2015)

JTG said:


> I find the council results thoroughly depressing tbh. The Greens elected to the council thus far have not done anything remotely useful. Yes, I'm really bitter about Daniella Radice's involvement in TRASHorfield's campaign to fuck up BRFC's move to a much needed new stadium and her attempts to delay permission for the new floodlights at the County Ground which would enable international cricket to come to the city on a regular basis.
> 
> Gus Hoyt - Gus fucking Hoyt! - has been re-elected. The areas they've won in are like a definitive map of inner city middle class liberal gentrification. Even fucking Easton. I don't believe for a second that they'll consider working class Bristolians in their campaigning and the city will continue to be a complete backwater for progress.



Surprised old Hoyty Toyty stuck around, a man of his calibre. 

I mean he was moaning about only getting £32,000 (?) a year as an 'assistant mayor'. And that was before Ferguson got shot of him for one fuck up too many, so he must be getting paid less now.

I thought he'd have gone off to become the CEO of some eco company or Chairman of the Bank of England or summat.


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## JTG (May 10, 2015)

big eejit said:


> Surprised old Hoyty Toyty stuck around, a man of his calibre.
> 
> I mean he was moaning about only getting £32,000 (?) a year as an 'assistant mayor'. And that was before Ferguson got shot of him for one fuck up too many, so he must be getting paid less now.
> 
> I thought he'd have gone off to become the CEO of some eco company or Chairman of the Bank of England or summat.


I've not followed every single in and out of his stellar career at Rovers Hall (something about buying a council house?) but I know enough to know that the man's a buffoon. Daniella Radice is just horrible. Martin Fodor I know slightly - nice chap, no idea what he's done in office though tbh


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