# European Elections 2019



## Tooter (Apr 25, 2019)

So as you may or may not know the European Parliament Elections are on Thursday 23 May. 

Are you going to bother voting? If so who are you going to vote for and why?


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## Poi E (Apr 25, 2019)

Spunking cock option?


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## souljacker (Apr 25, 2019)

Just looked up who 'Our Nation' are because I thought they were Nazis. Turns out they aren't but, they are idiots.


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## tim (Apr 25, 2019)

Why is there no Whig option?


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## chilango (Apr 25, 2019)

Have the candidates been announced yet?


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## MickiQ (Apr 25, 2019)

I might vote Change UK on the grounds that since I will probably be the only one who does I can look at the results the next morning and actually see my own vote. 
Seriously though I'm not sure that it's actually worth bothering, this is largely going to be a protest vote that won't get its point across and won't change anything. It will depend mostly on whether the weather is nice enough on the day to make me stroll to the polling station. maybe call in for a couple of beers on the way home.


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## Rob Ray (Apr 25, 2019)

Sadly Lord Buckethead is not standing at present, as he's worried he might actually split the vote. Which makes him ever so slightly less ridiculous than Change UK.

(I only learned today that he has, like Doctor Who, had multiple incarnations. Which would make sense as he also stood against Thatcher in 1987).


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## Tooter (Apr 25, 2019)

chilango said:


> Have the candidates been announced yet?



'The deadline for candidate nominations was 24 April for the South West England region and is 25 April for all other regions'

I believe the Conservatives have said they are not going to release their candidate list until after the nomination deadline.


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## farmerbarleymow (Apr 25, 2019)

If they're held I'll vote - not decided who for yet, but it won't be tory/kippers/brexit cunts, obviously.


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## Tooter (Apr 25, 2019)

MickiQ said:


> I'm not sure that it's actually worth bothering, this is largely going to be a protest vote that won't get its point across and won't change anything. It will depend mostly on whether the weather is nice enough on the day to make me stroll to the polling station. maybe call in for a couple of beers on the way home.



A protest vote for who I wonder? Against Europe or against Brexit? Or against certain personalities? Surely voting may influence wether or not Farage and his ilk get a seat at the table in the European parliament. Worth a vote no?


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## existentialist (Apr 25, 2019)

souljacker said:


> Just looked up who 'Our Nation' are because I thought they were Nazis. Turns out they aren't but, they are idiots.


You were probably thinking of "One Nation", which is the Aussie Nazi lot with that repellent chip shop fascist Pauline Hanson (in fact, I think they're officially called "Pauline Hanson's One Nation").


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## Tooter (Apr 25, 2019)

Rob Ray said:


> Sadly Lord Buckethead is not standing at present, as he's worried he might actually split the vote. Which makes him ever so slightly less ridiculous than Change UK.
> 
> (I only learned today that he has, like Doctor Who, had multiple incarnations. Which would make sense as he also stood against Thatcher in 1987).



Interesting, I didn't know that. He probably would have done quite well.
Going off the recent events with inexperienced comedians being elected prime ministers it probably makes sense, judging by the public mood at the moment he could have probably won. 

I guess it makes sense to not split the vote. On a personal note I just want to vote to keep farage and other idiots out of there.
Is picking a candidate purely a pro or anti European choice? Not quite sure what other considerations there are. 

It's likely someone will correct me but I think out of all the nominees across the spectrum there are only a handful of new faces...hardly groundbreaking change.


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## Tooter (Apr 25, 2019)

I'd be quite interested as to why people have decided not to vote.  Is it just because you can't be bothered? Lost faith in politics? You see it as pointless?


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## chilango (Apr 25, 2019)

Tooter said:


> I'd be quite interested as to why people have decided not to vote.  Is it just because you can't be bothered? Lost faith in politics? You see it as pointless?



It's highly unlikely there'll be anyone I want to vote for


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## existentialist (Apr 25, 2019)

Tooter said:


> I'd be quite interested as to why people have decided not to vote.  Is it just because you can't be bothered? Lost faith in politics? You see it as pointless?


So far, I have always voted. But it has felt to me increasingly as if, every time there is an election, I am having to think harder and harder about who is the "least worst" candidate. Nearly all, if not all of the candidates, represent a monied world of wealth and privilege that represents neither my values nor those of the communities I have lived in, and that disparity bothers me.

The irony is that, if I decided to stand, poverty-stricken and idealistic as I am, I would *still* represent a level of privilege that the voters who most need representation could only hope to aspire to.


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## Celyn (Apr 25, 2019)

chilango said:


> Have the candidates been announced yet?


Perhaps not all, but certainly some have.


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## chilango (Apr 25, 2019)

Those of you in the South East England constituency may remember the Roman Party from previous elections.

He drove my bus today


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## Tooter (Apr 25, 2019)

Heard a very interesting discussion about how UK voters should really be looking at what pan-european parties our domestic parties stand in....it quite surprised me I didn't know much about S&D, EFDD, EFA, ALDE, ECR.   I have to admit it surprised me how little I knew about European politics, in turn it makes me think how few people with the power to vote are making an informed decision.

It would appear already that quite a few people in the UK are going to vote for the party whos only policy can't be enacted from the place they are electing them to. Not only that but voting for the personality who rallies against the unelected beurocratic EU.  Another single ticket for the gravy train! All aboard!


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## William of Walworth (Apr 25, 2019)

Probably Labour, just in case there's a strong Brexit Party-type push round here.


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## Ax^ (Apr 25, 2019)

tim said:


> Why is there no Whig option?



you can vote for the Lib dems

same thing really


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## not a trot (Apr 25, 2019)

chilango said:


> It's highly unlikely there'll be anyone I want to vote for



Add your own name to the ballot paper then vote for yourself.


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## Tooter (Apr 25, 2019)

Ax^ said:


> you can vote for the Lib dems
> 
> same thing really



It was either whig or buckethead who is not actually running. I ran out of options.


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## redsquirrel (Apr 26, 2019)

Tooter said:


> It would appear already that quite a few people in the UK are going to vote for the party whos only policy can't be enacted from the place they are electing them to. Not only that but voting for the personality who rallies against the unelected beurocratic EU.  Another single ticket for the gravy train! All aboard!


The EU elections have been promoted as a unofficial referendum by the FPBE crowd as well as those want to leave. Nor is such argument limited to EU elections, plenty of people (both on U75 and wider) argued for a vote for Labour in 2017 as a means of showing support for Corbyn even if a particular MP is/had been strongly opposed to Corbyn.


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## Riklet (Apr 26, 2019)

They are actually (for once) quite important, because of Brexit and the need for manipulation of the European parliament and thereby the council to suit our own agenda. Or be slightly less screwed over.

Obviously the right across Europe get this and are stepping up the pressure, as they hope to get rid of the current administration and get more political power within the EU.

As the liberals and centre will be getting a trouncing across Europe, now is definitely the time for the left to pull out some votes. So I will be voting Labour, if they actually happen... best of a bad bunch and better than abstaining and letting the right dominate.


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## Supine (Apr 26, 2019)

Seems the Labour advertising is coming in for some stick. It'll be interesting to see what the official policy on 2nd ref is after the NEC meeting next Tuesday. 

HuffPost is now part of Oath


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## SpookyFrank (Apr 26, 2019)

Has anyone even attempted to provide a rational justification for electing brexit loons to the European parliament?

I mean if your problem is the UK doesn't have enough control within the EU, surely picking representatives who you know for a fact aren't going to even show up to work is likely to do the exact opposite of helping to address that?


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## agricola (Apr 26, 2019)

Supine said:


> Seems the Labour advertising is coming in for some stick. It'll be interesting to see what the official policy on 2nd ref is after the NEC meeting next Tuesday.
> 
> HuffPost is now part of Oath



Some stick from the usual people, for the usual reasons, with the usual lack of any kind of sense behind it.


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## SpookyFrank (Apr 26, 2019)

Tooter said:


> I'd be quite interested as to why people have decided not to vote.  Is it just because you can't be bothered? Lost faith in politics? You see it as pointless?



All of the above. The EU parliament is a joke anyway. I'm not using my vote to justify UK participation in an institution that welcomes and empowers nazis.


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## HungryTommy (Apr 26, 2019)

Tooter said:


> So as you may or may not know the European Parliament Elections are on Thursday 23 May.
> 
> Are you going to bother voting? If so who are you going to vote for and why?


probably just best to boycott the whole thing


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## Wilf (Apr 26, 2019)

Rob Ray said:


> Sadly Lord Buckethead is not standing at present, as he's worried he might actually split the vote. Which makes him ever so slightly less ridiculous than Change UK.
> 
> (I only learned today that he has, like Doctor Who, had multiple incarnations. Which would make sense as he also stood against Thatcher in 1987).


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## Mr Moose (Apr 26, 2019)

Come on, who put Brexit Party? Own up.

And you Lib Dems for that matter.


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## Wilf (Apr 26, 2019)

Poi E said:


> Spunking cock option?


This is a party list election, so we need _several _cocks to stand (snigger) in each area. Oh, hang on...


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## Mr Moose (Apr 26, 2019)

Come on which _three _of you put Brexit Party.


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## Mr Moose (Apr 26, 2019)

Any advance on three?


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## Supine (Apr 26, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> Any advance on three?



5


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## Mr Moose (Apr 26, 2019)

Everyone likes a giggle.


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## HungryTommy (Apr 26, 2019)

what are you guys scared of here?


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## Mr Moose (Apr 26, 2019)

HungryTommy said:


> what are you guys scared of here?



I’m sure you have a view, so enlighten us.


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## HungryTommy (Apr 26, 2019)

tbh, looks like the Brexit party may actually win, and the EU will get many more anti-EU Meps


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## Mr Moose (Apr 26, 2019)

HungryTommy said:


> tbh, looks like the Brexit party may actually win, and the EU will get many more anti-EU Meps



I hope you are not suggesting the UK may be left looking a bit silly?


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## redsquirrel (Apr 26, 2019)

SpookyFrank said:


> Has anyone even attempted to provide a rational justification for electing brexit loons to the European parliament?
> 
> I mean if your problem is the UK doesn't have enough control within the EU, surely picking representatives who you know for a fact aren't going to even show up to work is likely to do the exact opposite of helping to address that?


That's a pretty strange argument coming from someone who calls themselves an anarchist.

There are a bunch of obvious and completely rational reasons why people might vote the the BP.
- The hardcore of both the Leave and Remain crowds have argued that these elections are a micro-referendum,
- Leave supporting Tories have a chance to show their displeasure at the party/May without letting Labour into power (same goes for leave supporting Labour voters).


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## MickiQ (Apr 26, 2019)

Tooter said:


> A protest vote for who I wonder? Against Europe or against Brexit? Or against certain personalities? Surely voting may influence wether or not Farage and his ilk get a seat at the table in the European parliament. Worth a vote no?


I don't think there is going to a be protest vote FOR anyone. Public discontent with our political leadership is at an all time high at the moment with the general feeling being that none of them could run a hotdog stand.
There will I think be a lot of people voting or not voting because they're frustrated that Brexit hasn't happened yet and a comparable number voting in the mistaken belief that they are doing something to prevent it.
Prior to the current shenanigans the European Elections have never been taken too seriously either by the populace or the ruling elite and it's only Brexit (or lack thereof) that is giving them any impetus.
As I said earlier what happens in the EU elections (other than the mere fact they're happening will piss off quite a few people) is going to have little to no impact on what actually happens afterwards Though I bet there will be loads and loads of people trying to analyse the results in a way that supports their own view (especially on U75).
The only thing that might come out of them that may be of real significance is the fate of the Chuka's If they crash and burn in the EU elections then come a GE they really will go down like the proverbial lead balloon.


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## SpookyFrank (Apr 26, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> There are a bunch of obvious and completely rational reasons why people might vote the the BP.
> - The hardcore of both the Leave and Remain crowds have argued that these elections are a micro-referendum,



Yes but that's a shit argument because it's not.


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## redsquirrel (Apr 26, 2019)

SpookyFrank said:


> Yes but that's a shit argument because it's not.


You don't think that the BP doing well is going to put pressure on the government? That it's not going to put further pressure on any future Tory leader to have a harder line on the EU than May. If you're a hardline leave voter the BP doing well probably won't result in the UK leaving the EU but it certainly won't harm your cause.


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## Mr Moose (Apr 26, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> You don't think that the BP doing well is going to put pressure on the government? That it's not going to put further pressure on any future Tory leader to have a harder line on the EU than May. If you're a hardline leave voter the BP doing well probably won't result in the UK leaving the EU but it certainly won't harm your cause.



But it’s not a good reason to vote Farage though. It’s an illusion that this is all one issue, like English nationalists will cash in their chips come Brexit.


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## redsquirrel (Apr 26, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> But it’s not a good reason to vote Farage though. It’s an illusion that this is all one issue, like English nationalists will cash in their chips come Brexit.


It is a good reason if you are a right of centre leave supporter. Or someone who believes that the UK leaving the EU is the most important political issue of the moment.


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## Mr Moose (Apr 26, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> It is a good reason if you are a right of centre leave supporter. Or someone who believes that the UK leaving the EU is the most important issue.



The latter is the trouble with Brexit. Like voting for the Austrian far right because you are only interested in trains and they like trains too.


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## mx wcfc (Apr 26, 2019)

Extinction Rebellion protesters to stand in European elections

Hmm.  Can the poll be redone now?


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## Wilf (Apr 26, 2019)

It's ukip I feel sorry for, out-cunted by their own former leader. It's as if someone so discredited as tony blair came back to cause trouble for the labour party. Oh, hang on...


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## redsquirrel (Apr 26, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> The latter is the trouble with Brexit. Like voting for the Austrian far right because you are only interested in trains and they like trains too.


But how is that irrational? If you care about one issue far more than anything else then it is totally rational to vote for the party that will be best placed to assist the outcome you want on that issue.


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## Argonia (Apr 26, 2019)

Nice to see there are no cuks here


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## Mr Moose (Apr 26, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> But how is that irrational? If you care about one issue far more than anything else then it is totally rational to vote for the party that will be best placed to assist the outcome you want on that issue.



Rational only in a very narrow sense. Nationalism isn’t going to be good for people in the longer term. We don’t give out passes to people voting Tory because they have _a _reason.


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## redsquirrel (Apr 26, 2019)

I'm sorry but that's gobbledygook, you don't seem to understand what rational means. Someone might be a dick for voting for a particular party but that doesn't mean that they are being irrational.

If all you care about are trains being blue it's pretty bloody rational to vote for the party that is promising to paint the trains blue. If you support hard right politics it's rational to vote hard right.


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## Mr Moose (Apr 26, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> I'm sorry but that's gobbledygook, you don't seem to understand what rational means. Someone might be a dick for voting for a particular party but that doesn't mean that they are being irrational.
> 
> If all you care about are trains being blue it's pretty bloody rational to vote for the party that is promising to paint the trains blue. If you support hard right politics it's rational to vote hard right.



People vote for things that are not ultimately in their interest that’s all.


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## redsquirrel (Apr 26, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> People vote for things that are not ultimately in their interest that’s all.


Sure, but that's not (necessarily) irrational. (And of course how such _interests_ are defined is completely political).


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## HungryTommy (Apr 27, 2019)

Wilf said:


> It's ukip I feel sorry for, out-cunted by their own former leader. It's as if someone so discredited as tony blair came back to cause trouble for the labour party. Oh, hang on...


It's actually an astute move by Nigel, he's going for the more mainstream vote whilst leaving the rump of UKIP to do the dirty work


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## HungryTommy (Apr 27, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> The latter is the trouble with Brexit. Like voting for the Austrian far right because you are only interested in trains and they like trains too.


the Brexit Party is hardly 'far right', please grow up


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## Poi E (Apr 27, 2019)

Only having one policy doesn't really give you an ideology.


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## HungryTommy (Apr 27, 2019)

that's right, it's single issue again, like UKIP was, and that proved very effective

it's clearly why all you Remainer loons on this board are in such a hissy fit about Brexit - you're running scared of the peoples' will!


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## Poi E (Apr 27, 2019)

UKIP always had the race hatred card to play.


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## brogdale (Apr 27, 2019)

HungryTommy said:


> that's right, it's single issue again, like UKIP was, and that proved very effective
> 
> it's clearly why all you Remainer loons on this board are in such a hissy fit about Brexit - you're running scared of the peoples' will!


Running scared of Narodnaya Volya, I don’t think so.

1/10


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## brogdale (Apr 27, 2019)

Survation's latest Euro polling: (2k = fairly sizeable sample)



Changes on 2014 Euros:
CON 16% (-7),
LAB 27% (+2),
LD 8% (+1),
UKIP 7% (-20),
GRN 4% (-4),
SNP 3% (+1),
BXP 27% (+27 new),
CHUK/TIG 4% (+4 new),
OTH 4% (-4).


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## brogdale (Apr 27, 2019)

And...although we all know that it's a Corbyn risk-free punishment hit...quite extraordinary that fully 46% of 2017 Con voters say they will vote for Farage! (as opposed to only 12% of 2017 Labour voters switching to TInGe).


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## DotCommunist (Apr 27, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Survation's latest Euro polling: (2k = fairly sizeable sample)
> 
> View attachment 169129
> 
> ...


hah, look at that straight ukip collapse into Brexit party. It was predicted, but lol nonetheless.


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## brogdale (Apr 27, 2019)

DotCommunist said:


> hah, look at that straight ukip collapse into Brexit party. It was predicted, but lol nonetheless.


+ a fair chunk of tory support


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## brogdale (Apr 27, 2019)

And Opinium also has Lab & Farage level pegging on 28% in their latest Euro polling...tories even lower on 14% and some indication of ChUK/LD churn.


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## DJWrongspeed (Apr 27, 2019)

Just had my polling card through this week. Weird because I'd not even heard that these were officially going ahead ?

When was it announced?


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## brogdale (Apr 27, 2019)

DJWrongspeed said:


> Just had my polling card through this week. Weird because I'd not even heard that these were officially going ahead ?
> 
> When was it announced?


When the supra-state decided quite how long the UK state would remain part of the supra-state.


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## Dogsauce (Apr 28, 2019)

Would be funny if some deal was just sorted out in time for the elections not to happen, that would really boil Farage’s piss as he couldn’t do this big bit of grandstanding.


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## PR1Berske (Apr 28, 2019)

mx wcfc said:


> Extinction Rebellion protesters to stand in European elections
> 
> Hmm.  Can the poll be redone now?


They've got candidates in the London region, only they've admitted to not understanding how a d'Hondt list election works which is why all their candidates are standing against each other as rivals....

London (European Parliament constituency) - Wikipedia


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## SpackleFrog (May 1, 2019)

PR1Berske said:


> They've got candidates in the London region, only they've admitted to not understanding how a d'Hondt list election works which is why all their candidates are standing against each other as rivals....
> 
> London (European Parliament constituency) - Wikipedia



Are they all the independent ones then? 

I feel like this might not be the election for the Animal Welfare party, but fair play to them for trying...


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## The39thStep (May 2, 2019)

Stephen Yaxley Lennon in Bury


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## ffsear (May 2, 2019)

Not voting in this. Not voting ever again.


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## Ranbay (May 2, 2019)

is voting today?


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## Poi E (May 2, 2019)

Yes. fold a piece of paper and put it in a slot somewhere.


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## cupid_stunt (May 2, 2019)

Ranbay said:


> is voting today?



No, Thur 23rd May for EU elections, some areas have local elections today.


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## Poi E (May 2, 2019)

Vote anyway for anything.


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## Ranbay (May 2, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> No, Thur 23rd May for EU elections, some areas have local elections today.



Ah cheers, i got a card in the post week or so ago, that must be for MEP then


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## Lurdan (May 7, 2019)

Got an election mail shot from the Brexit Party today and I see they've included pictures of the glittering rainbow coalition of their candidates. I'm in Tower Hamlets, and I'm mildly curious as to how far this has been tailored for London consumption (it does say it's a London Election Communication), or whether it reflects their messaging in other regions. Any examples of different leaflets ? Do they have pictures of different kinds of 'role model' and 'influencer' on the front ?


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## farmerbarleymow (May 7, 2019)

No leaflets here yet, but I'll scan anything that comes through.  I wonder is yaxley-milkshake-cunt will send leaflets out?


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## brogdale (May 8, 2019)

Lurdan said:


> Got an election mail shot from the Brexit Party today and I see they've included pictures of the glittering rainbow coalition of their candidates. I'm in Tower Hamlets, and I'm mildly curious as to how far this has been tailored for London consumption (it does say it's a London Election Communication), or whether it reflects their messaging in other regions. Any examples of different leaflets ? Do they have pictures of different kinds of 'role model' and 'influencer' on the front ?


Just to confirm; same leaflet here in deepest South London (Sutton).


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## Ranbay (May 8, 2019)

Sames one in Wales also, lots of people kicked off it's not in Welsh also.


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## Lurdan (May 8, 2019)

Cheers all. I guess they will be relying on local activists to customise the 'offering' to specific circumstances. 

I'm still struck by the awesome range of talent they offer from Claire Fox on the left (of the leaflet) to Joel Chilaka the prominent 'influencer' for Turning Point UK on the right.

Anyhow I got another leaflet today, this one from Domino's Pizza. Given the state of my teeth the promise of more crust isn't very attractive, even one filled with Tabasco and Cheese. On the other hand at least there is a prominently displayed price list.


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## Lurdan (May 9, 2019)

Couple more leaflets today. One from Uber Eats. And this :











The excitement mounts.


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## brogdale (May 9, 2019)

Quite a big sample, apparently (>4K)


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## brogdale (May 9, 2019)

Quite how badly the tories are panicking can be gauged by their ludicrous attempt at expectation management saying they fear coming sixth 

Oh, look...we came 3rd...so much better than it could have b.....


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## brogdale (May 9, 2019)

And...


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## SpackleFrog (May 10, 2019)

Lurdan said:


> Couple more leaflets today. One from Uber Eats. And this :
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Pretty weak really.


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## Smokeandsteam (May 10, 2019)

From the FT this morning. 

Tories set for lowest ever vote share for ruling party in a nationwide vote

 Labour support falling

More than half* of 2017 Tory voters say they’ll vote Brexit Party or Ukip this month, 13% will go Lib Dem, Ch․UK or Green

28% of 2017 Lab voters going LD, Ch․UK or Green, 14% going BP or Ukip


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## Pickman's model (May 10, 2019)

Smokeandsteam said:


> From the FT this morning.
> 
> Tories set for lowest ever vote share for ruling party in a nationwide vote
> 
> ...


what i love about you is how you blithely ignore things like the labour campaign launching yesterday and believe the opinion polls when as we all know - and should be taken as read after the 2017 general election - how these things can shift substantially over the course of the campaign. so: 28% of 2017 lab voters going ld etc? not seeing your working on that one. let's wait and see what happens to the figures on the day of the only poll that matters.


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## Tooter (May 10, 2019)

+28% 

 I see the representative of the working class Annunziata rees Mogg who joined the Conservatives at the age of five appears......oh and a CEO that does 'deals for a living'....oh and a soldier...oh and Jane 'some people call me Boadicea' Mummery....that should be most bases covered to hoodwink the braindead politically illiterate masses of England into voting for them.


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## SpackleFrog (May 10, 2019)

Tooter said:


> +28%
> 
> I see the representative of the working class Annunziata rees Mogg who joined the Conservatives at the age of five appears......oh and a CEO that does 'deals for a living'....oh and a soldier...oh and Jane 'some people call me Boadicea' Mummery....that should be most bases covered to hoodwink the braindead politically illiterate masses of England into voting for them.



Who should the "brain dead politically illiterate masses" vote for?


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## Mr Moose (May 10, 2019)

Tooter said:


> +28%
> 
> I see the representative of the working class Annunziata rees Mogg who joined the Conservatives at the age of five appears......oh and a CEO that does 'deals for a living'....oh and a soldier...oh and Jane 'some people call me Boadicea' Mummery....that should be most bases covered to hoodwink the braindead politically illiterate masses of England into voting for them.



What does that say about the Remain arguments?


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## Tooter (May 10, 2019)

The Brexit Party?  probably a bit strong....point taken....frustration!


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## Smokeandsteam (May 10, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Who should the "brain dead politically illiterate masses" vote for?



Lord Adonis.


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## SpackleFrog (May 10, 2019)

Well the braindead masses won't be voting Tory, that's for sure. 

European elections: Tories could come sixth, officials fear

They're not even campaigning. The strategy seems to be to just take the hit! Which might actually be a better strategy than Labour have 

I can get 8/1 on the Brexit Party getting 40% and I'm quite tempted to be completely honest. Is that a mad punt or is it actually a really decent price...?


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## kebabking (May 10, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Well the braindead masses won't be voting Tory, that's for sure.
> 
> European elections: Tories could come sixth, officials fear
> 
> ...



I wouldn't put next month's food budget on it, but I wouldn't fall of my chair if it came to pass....


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## SpackleFrog (May 10, 2019)

kebabking said:


> I wouldn't put next month's food budget on it, but I wouldn't fall of my chair if it came to pass....



I am very tempted to stick £20 on it. It's quite possible Labour and Tories won't manage 40% between them. In fact Tories could get less than 10%. But I _think _the smaller parties/explicitly remain parties will probably just about get more than 20% combined. Maybe 35-39.99% at 4/1 is the better option. 

Does anyone think the Brexit Party will get less than 35%?


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## eoin_k (May 10, 2019)

Maria Brown said:


> Let's hope for the best.



Yes indeed, the best is precisely what we should hope for, but while preparing for the worst as you no doubt agree. Welcome to the boards and may I be the first of many (let's hope!) to thank you for your contribution.


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## Dogsauce (May 10, 2019)

‘Tories coming sixth’ is just classic expectations management, although they tried that in the locals too and actually came out worse than their worst case scenario . Let’s hope for similar luck this time around.


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## rowan (May 12, 2019)

Riklet said:


> They are actually (for once) quite important, because of Brexit and the need for manipulation of the European parliament and thereby the council to suit our own agenda. Or be slightly less screwed over.
> 
> Obviously the right across Europe get this and are stepping up the pressure, as they hope to get rid of the current administration and get more political power within the EU.
> 
> As the liberals and centre will be getting a trouncing across Europe, now is definitely the time for the left to pull out some votes. So I will be voting Labour, if they actually happen... best of a bad bunch and better than abstaining and letting the right dominate.



The rise of the right scares the life out of me, so I vote Labour in all elections (apart from last weeks locals, only 1 candidate from each party so I voted Green as well). I don't want to live in a world where the right dominate, nothing good can come from them.


----------



## Leafster (May 12, 2019)

I've had a couple of baffling conversations with my neighbour over the last few days. In the week, she'd asked me if the postman had been. I confirmed he had and said I'd only received a European Election leaflet. She looked puzzled and asked me what election I was on about. I explained. She was still puzzled, asking me again why we were voting in a "European" election. I explained again. She's in her seventies but said she'd never heard of European elections before I'd mentioned them just the "normal" ones we have. Knowing that she's a big fan of Nigel I asked her how she thought Nigel got elected as an MEP if there hadn't been elections. She said she'd voted UKIP but didn't think she'd ever voted for UKIP in a European election as she didn't know they existed. 

Today, she asked me to explain the European elections again. She said she'd talked to her brother after we'd spoken in the week and he didn't know what European elections were either. He'd asked her why we vote in European elections when "they" don't vote in ours! He told her he knew there was an election coming up but didn't know if he could vote for the Brexit party as it wasn't a General Election. 

They both seem to want to "vote for Nigel" even though they don't seem to understand the reason why we're having to have the election in first place or even that Nigel is already an MEP. 

I'm not the most politically engaged person but I was staggered by the lack of knowledge my neighbour and her brother had and, I suppose, I'm wondering if other people have come across the same level of ignorance.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 12, 2019)

Leafster said:


> I suppose, I'm wondering if other people have come across the same level of ignorance.



No, never, that's a corker!


----------



## Leafster (May 12, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> No, never, that's a corker!


I'm still bewildered by it really. It's not as though she doesn't watch the news or read a newspaper *. 

*Daily Mail


----------



## Poi E (May 12, 2019)

Ask her what she thinks of independence for England.


----------



## Leafster (May 12, 2019)

Poi E said:


> Ask her what she thinks of independence for England.


Do I have to explain who Tam Dalyell was too? 

ETA: To be honest, I try to avoid talking to her about any political issue because, as you can probably imagine, we don't share much common ground.


----------



## brogdale (May 13, 2019)

Tories in 5th place with their Euro ‘core’ support heading to a single digit number?


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 13, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Tories in 5th place with their Euro ‘core’ support heading to a single digit number?



I think this yougov poll could a an 'outer', I guess the Tory figure could be right, but I am struggling with that figure of only 16% for Labour, when other recent polls have them at 21-26%

One thing for sure, the Chuckle UK lot are going to be gutted! 



ETA: Just noticed that wikipedia haven't included figures for UKIP, SNP & PC, and they are not included under 'others', as that's showing at 0%. I assume yougov included them in the poll.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 13, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> I think this yougov poll could a an 'outer', I guess the Tory figure could be right, but I am struggling with that figure of only 16% for Labour, when other recent polls have them at 21-26%


Yes, I tend to agree. Could be real movement since LEs but one to take with some salt. 


cupid_stunt said:


> One thing for sure, the Chuckle UK lot are going to be gutted!


That I think probably is reflective, YouGov, ComRes and Opinium all showing drops in their vote since LEs, their voters do appear to be moving to the LDs.


----------



## Poi E (May 13, 2019)

SNP on course for almost 50% of the Scottish vote.  Doing better than the Brexit Party.


----------



## ItWillNeverWork (May 13, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Tories in 5th place with their Euro ‘core’ support heading to a single digit number?







cupid_stunt said:


> I think this yougov poll could a an 'outer', I guess the Tory figure could be right, but I am struggling with that figure of only 16% for Labour, when other recent polls have them at 21-26%
> 
> One thing for sure, the Chuckle UK lot are going to be gutted!
> 
> View attachment 170851



The nation just isn't ready for pure Chucklism at this stage. More work needs to be done, comrades.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 13, 2019)

Yellow scum is the worry, looks like they might be eating into Labour’s vote. Not seeing any of their campaigning or them getting much media attention - where is this coming from, Facebook?


----------



## MickiQ (May 13, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> I think this yougov poll could a an 'outer', I guess the Tory figure could be right, but I am struggling with that figure of only 16% for Labour, when other recent polls have them at 21-26%
> 
> One thing for sure, the Chuckle UK lot are going to be gutted!
> 
> ...


I am going to steal Chuckle UK off you and shamelessly pass it off as my own 
I think there was a brief period after they first walked out that they had a chance to make a mark and establish themselves as a relevant force in UK politics certainly the Guardian did its best but they seem to have almost wilfully wasted every chance they had like a bunch of angry teenagers not sure what they were rebelling against, but wanting to let people know they were upset.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 13, 2019)

MickiQ said:


> I am going to steal Chuckle UK off you and shamelessly pass it off as my own



It just seems to fit, doesn't it?  

I've used it a couple of times now, I was hoping it would catch on.


----------



## brogdale (May 13, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> I think this yougov poll could a an 'outer', I guess the Tory figure could be right, but I am struggling with that figure of only 16% for Labour, when other recent polls have them at 21-26%



Oh yes, any one poll could well be an outlier, and we'd need to watch others for the trend...but the collapsing Tory (& to a slightly lesser extent Labour) vote is looking like a real and unsurprising trend for the Euros.

I suppose what is of more import, psephologically speaking, is quite how far the habit of ditching the main parties spills over to the next election (GE?) and whether or not the tories take a greater, sustained hit. If so, that could open up the prospect of a Labour led coalition government based on a surprisingly low % share of the popular vote.


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## killer b (May 13, 2019)

It might be an outlier, but there's a clear trend towards the lib dems at the moment. 

They've run a great campaign so far, so it's not that surprising - although I think their relative success in the local elections has helped a lot in making them the most obvious vote if being anti-brexit is your main driver. Also Gina Miller's tactical voting website - which seems to have had a lot of purchase with the soft left vote in my orbit - is recommending a vote for the lib dems in every region in England, I reckon that's probably had a reasonable sized impact.


----------



## brogdale (May 13, 2019)

killer b said:


> It might be an outlier, but there's a clear trend towards the lib dems at the moment.
> 
> They've run a great campaign so far, so it's not that surprising - although I think their relative success in the local elections has helped a lot in making them the most obvious vote if being anti-brexit is your main driver. Also Gina Miller's tactical voting website - which seems to have had a lot of purchase with the soft left vote in my orbit - is recommending a vote for the lib dems in every region in England, I reckon that's probably had a reasonable sized impact.


Hence the panicky attempt at rebranding from Starmer & Watson.


----------



## Crispy (May 13, 2019)

brogdale said:


> I suppose what is of more import, psephologically speaking, is quite how far the habit of ditching the main parties spills over to the next election (GE?) and whether or not the tories take a greater, sustained hit. If so, that could open up the prospect of a Labour led coalition government based on a surprisingly low % share of the popular vote.


Latest ComRes has BRX 1 point above CON. These guys translate that to 51 seats and a labour majority:



Although I don't see how any sort of prediction can be made when there's no precedent. Could go anywhere.


----------



## brogdale (May 13, 2019)

Crispy said:


> Latest ComRes has BRX 1 point above CON. These guys translate that to 51 seats and a labour majority:
> 
> 
> 
> Although I don't see how any sort of prediction can be made when there's no precedent. Could go anywhere.



Agreed; it'll be after the Euros that the Brx numbers will be worth watching to see how much support they sustain and at what cost to the big two.


----------



## killer b (May 13, 2019)

Brexit is a wedge issue for both the Brexit Party and for the Lib Dems - I'd expect however they do in the EP elections their support will fall back by the time we get to a general as voters will be voting on a range of issues: difficult to know how far they'll fall back though, and both parties will be keen to keep brexit as a key issue.


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## killer b (May 13, 2019)

We should take pleasure that even at +/- 5%, with the Lib Dems surging like this the only way is down for ChUK.


----------



## brogdale (May 13, 2019)

killer b said:


> Brexit is a wedge issue for both the Brexit Party and for the Lib Dems - I'd expect however they do in the EP elections their support will fall back by the time we get to a general as voters will be voting on a range of issues: difficult to know how far they'll fall back though, and both parties will be keen to keep brexit as a key issue.


Yep, but so many variables...date of GE, change of tory leader, 'progress' with withdrawal etc.


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## Dogsauce (May 13, 2019)

Farage was saying he sees the Brexit party as the beginning of creating something like Italy’s five star movement, talking about direct democracy etc. Expect more racism and stuff like anti-vax bollocks as in Italy then. Is Bannon/US Oligarch money involved in any of this?

Interviewers should ask him something like “given a clear majority of the British public support renationalisation of the country’s railway operations, is that the kind of populist policy you would bring forward?”. Shine a light on his Thatcherite motivations.


----------



## brogdale (May 13, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> Farage was saying he sees the Brexit party as the beginning of creating something like Italy’s five star movement, talking about direct democracy etc. Expect more racism and stuff like anti-vax bollocks as in Italy then. Is Bannon/US Oligarch money involved in any of this?
> 
> Interviewers should ask him something like “given a clear majority of the British public support renationalisation of the country’s railway operations, is that the kind of populist policy you would bring forward?”. Shine a light on his Thatcherite motivations.


Yes, and unless and until Brexit is effected...the failure to leave will be the vehicle and springboard for sustained support for Farage & party. I don't think BRX will just fade after the Euros.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 13, 2019)

All these movements seem to revolve around single figureheads, Grillo, Wilders, Le Pen, Farage. Where’s a good plane crash when you need one?


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## Teaboy (May 13, 2019)

I do wonder how much can be gleamed from local and european elections.  I was in the pub with a couple of cricket team mates the other day on the night of the local elections.  They were both confused as to why there were elections happening at the start of May but we weren't voting until the end of the month.  "Why not do it all on the same day?"

I explained that they were different elections and we had had our local elections last year.  Both shrugged and went back to finishing their pints and talking about football.  I consider myself quite politically engaged but I don't bother with the locals and probably won't with the Euros.  Just a combination of factors.

Its different at General Elections, people are far more aware and involved.


----------



## Poi E (May 13, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> All these movements seem to revolve around single figureheads, Grillo, Wilders, Le Pen, Farage. Where’s a good plane crash when you need one?



Farage survived his. You can't kill him.


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## Supine (May 13, 2019)

Just postal voted.

The form had a little fold at the bottom of the paper. Underneath that was the box to vote for Tommy Robinson. I almost didn't notice it


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## brogdale (May 13, 2019)

London specific Euro polling from YG for QMUL:

European poll results:
(2014 election results in brackets):

L 24 (36)
Brexit 20 (UKIP 16%)
LD 17 (7)
Green 14 (9)
Con 10 (22)


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 13, 2019)

Just had the Labour election leaflet delivered by the postie, so that's them & the Brexit Party so far.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 13, 2019)

brogdale said:


> London specific Euro polling from YG for QMUL:
> 
> European poll results:
> (2014 election results in brackets):
> ...



'Kinell, 20% in London? 

I put that bet on by the way - Brexit Party to get between 35 and 39.99% of the vote. Got 4/1 on it on Friday, it's now 3/1 but still good value I reckon.


----------



## andysays (May 13, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> All these movements seem to revolve around single figureheads, Grillo, Wilders, Le Pen, Farage. Where’s a good plane crash when you need one?


What we really need is a meteorite strike while all four of them are meeting somewhere...


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 13, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> 'Kinell, 20% in London?
> 
> I put that bet on by the way - Brexit Party to get between 35 and 39.99% of the vote. Got 4/1 on it on Friday, it's now 3/1 but still good value I reckon.



In the referendum over 1.5 Million Londoners voted leave. Barking & Dagengham, Barnet, Bexley, Havering, Hillingdon and Sutton Boroughs all voted to leave. 

I think you'll be collecting on the bet by the way, there is a real insurgent momentum behind the BP.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 13, 2019)

Smokeandsteam said:


> In the referendum over 1.5 Million Londoners voted leave. Barking & Dagengham, Barnet, Bexley, Havering, Hillingdon and Sutton Boroughs all voted to leave.
> 
> I think you'll be collecting on the bet by the way, there is a real insurgent momentum behind the BP.



Maybe... I'm nervous they'll get over 40% now though! 40%+ was 8/1. Now slashed to 4/1.


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 13, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Maybe... I'm nervous they'll get over 40% now though! 40%+ was 8/1. Now slashed to 4/1.



Yes, the polling today suggests that the labour vote seems to be collapsing so 40% plus is definitely possible.  

Up thread there seems to be an attempt by Teaboy to explain this surge as due to voter confusion. There is undoubtedly some of this and the Euro elections are traditionally opportunities for protest votes. 

But this feels more existential, more lasting ((in terms of the turn away from the establishment parties) and more problematic for a variety of reasons. It reminds me of Scotland in 2016 in many ways, where the vote for the SNP was not a protest against against a lazy and corrupt labour party, it was a crossing of a rubicon. 

Of course there is a key difference - the SNP had a worked out social democratic programme that could be used to motivate and agitate its supporters. Going past the Euros the BP'S achilles remains its lack of a programme. The key moment will be when they do.


----------



## Teaboy (May 13, 2019)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Up thread there seems to be an attempt by Teaboy to explain this surge as due to voter confusion. There is undoubtedly some of this and the Euro elections are traditionally opportunities for protest votes.



I think I mean apathy rather than confusion, people are just not that bothered about local and euro elections.  The euros are going to be a single issue vote and its going to be those who feel Brexit has been robbed that are going to be more motivated to vote.  Even if Farrage's lot do get 40% does that mean that there has suddenly been a big swing to leave from remain?  I don't think so.  Similarly I'd take with a pinch of salt the idea that large win for Farrage would translate into seats at a GE.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 13, 2019)

Teaboy said:


> I think I mean apathy rather than confusion, people are just not that bothered about local and euro elections.  The euros are going to be a single issue vote and its going to be those who feel Brexit has been robbed that are going to be more motivated to vote.  Even if Farrage's lot do get 40% does that mean that there has suddenly been a big swing to leave from remain?  I don't think so.  Similarly I'd take with a pinch of salt the idea that large win for Farrage would translate into seats at a GE.



What if the next GE happens this year? With no solution to the Brexit question in sight?


----------



## Wilf (May 13, 2019)

I don't feel like I'm in a position to make any kind of predictions with confidence in these crazy times. I don't see the Tories dropping any lower than 4th at worst in the Euro polls, but who knows. What will be interesting is when the Tory-Lab talks come to an end, what that does to the polls. A customs union stitch up pushes brexit up to 40% probably, whereas another failure to agree anything also boosts them. Tories have already been squeezed to near the limit, though they can always lose a few more percentage points. It's probably Labour that will get squeezed next - pro-brexit labour voters going for the Libs and brexit minded labour voters heading for farage.

As I would guess for most anti-capitalist posters, the brexit party vote is an unhealthy-healthy thing. It's great to see a massive Fuck You vote, but less so seeing it head for a bunch of populists and racists.  Again, the sad thing is the absence of a working class politics to express that anger. That's for another thread though.


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## Wilf (May 13, 2019)

My Mum, right wing labourite all her life, deserted them yesterday and postal voted for the Libs (as anti-brexit statement).   Took me all time to not lose it on the way to the postbox.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 13, 2019)

Wilf said:


> I don't feel like I'm in a position to make any kind of predictions with confidence in these crazy times. I don't see the Tories dropping any lower than 4th at worst in the Euro polls, but who knows. What will be interesting is when the Tory-Lab talks come to an end, what that does to the polls. A customs union stitch up pushes brexit up to 40% probably, whereas another failure to agree anything also boosts them. Tories have already been squeezed to near the limit, though they can always lose a few more percentage points. It's probably Labour that will get squeezed next - pro-brexit labour voters going for the Libs and brexit minded labour voters heading for farage.
> 
> As I would guess for most anti-capitalist posters, the brexit party vote is an unhealthy-healthy thing. It's great to see a massive Fuck You vote, but less so seeing it head for a bunch of populists and racists.  Again, the sad thing is the absence of a working class politics to express that anger. That's for another thread though.



I can see Tories getting less than Lib Dems. If you're usually a Tory voter and you don't want Brexit, you'll be alienated enough to vote Lib Dem. If you usually vote Tory and you do want Brexit, you'll be alienated enough to vote for the Brexit Party. There really don't seem to be any clear reasons to vote Tory in an election they basically wish wasn't happening.


----------



## Teaboy (May 13, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> What if the next GE happens this year? With no solution to the Brexit question in sight?



Very difficult to say because the tories would have a new leader and may have changed tact considerably.  This could easily spike Farage's cannons and would probably make Labour's life easier as well.  It all depends...


----------



## Wilf (May 13, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> I can see Tories getting less than Lib Dems. If you're usually a Tory voter and you don't want Brexit, you'll be alienated enough to vote Lib Dem. If you usually vote Tory and you do want Brexit, you'll be alienated enough to vote for the Brexit Party. There really don't seem to be any clear reasons to vote Tory in an election they basically wish wasn't happening.


Yeah, I suspect the libs might end up gathering up the more committed anti-brexit vote, which may well be coming from Labour, but in turn guarantees the tories end up in 4th. But that shift to the libs probably fucks the chuks. Maybe I'm just ancient and still thinking in terms of parties having 'core votes', which may stop the tories going into complete meltdown. The results of the euros will certainly look like we've got a 4 or even 5 party system, but the fpp system in the next general election may make it look like the 2 party system is stronger than it is. Cue further campaigns for PR.


----------



## brogdale (May 13, 2019)

Teaboy said:


> Very difficult to say because the tories would have a new leader and may have changed tact considerably.  This could easily spike Farage's cannons and would probably make Labour's life easier as well.  It all depends...


A 'no-dealer' leading the Tories would indeed make life much more straightforward for Lab...they'd have something against which to take an oppositional stance. The problem ATM is that the leadership actually pretty much agree with much of May's WA.


----------



## treelover (May 13, 2019)

brogdale said:


> London specific Euro polling from YG for QMUL:
> 
> European poll results:
> (2014 election results in brackets):
> ...



20% in London, isn't that quite high.


----------



## brogdale (May 13, 2019)

treelover said:


> 20% in London, isn't that quite high.


Of those intending to vote? I don't think so.
Though my view may be coloured by the fact that I live in a (57%) Leave voting London borough.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 14, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Of those intending to vote? I don't think so.
> Though my view may be coloured by the fact that I live in a (57%) Leave voting London borough.



Fair. There is a bit of a narrative that everyone in That London fervently loves the EU which we may be influenced by.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 14, 2019)

Teaboy said:


> Very difficult to say because the tories would have a new leader and may have changed tact considerably.  This could easily spike Farage's cannons and would probably make Labour's life easier as well.  It all depends...



Then you would have a split Tory Party - and why vote for the Tory split if you already liked the Brexit Party? 

Not saying people wouldn't return to the Brexity split of the party but it's not guaranteed.


----------



## Teaboy (May 14, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Then you would have a split Tory Party - and why vote for the Tory split if you already liked the Brexit Party?
> 
> Not saying people wouldn't return to the Brexity split of the party but it's not guaranteed.



Because it will be all 'vote Farage, get Corbyn'.  Fear of Corbyn will bring tory voters back to their natural home.  It will be much easier with a more outwardly pro Brexit leader as well.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 14, 2019)

Teaboy said:


> Because it will be all 'vote Farage, get Corbyn'.  Fear of Corbyn will bring tory voters back to their natural home.  It will be much easier with a more outwardly pro Brexit leader as well.



Yes. No sign yet it’s more than a blip, more like _the campaign for real conservatism. 
_
At the right time the Conservative media will remember Corbyn and reanimate the Tory corpse, breathing fresh life into Labour too.

Any ‘sea change’ in British politics that involves the Lib Dems gaining ground is pretty much guaranteed to have no permanence.


----------



## Orang Utan (May 14, 2019)

I voted for this wally. I blame the Labour Party


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 14, 2019)

i understand there are 21 parties / candidates in london.

the phrase "bollocks to the lot of you" written without spaces is 21 characters...


----------



## weltweit (May 14, 2019)

I want to register my disapproval for Brexit, but I am not sure who to vote for.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 14, 2019)

Teaboy said:


> Because it will be all 'vote Farage, get Corbyn'.  Fear of Corbyn will bring tory voters back to their natural home.  It will be much easier with a more outwardly pro Brexit leader as well.





Mr Moose said:


> Yes. No sign yet it’s more than a blip, more like _the campaign for real conservatism.
> _
> At the right time the Conservative media will remember Corbyn and reanimate the Tory corpse, breathing fresh life into Labour too.
> 
> Any ‘sea change’ in British politics that involves the Lib Dems gaining ground is pretty much guaranteed to have no permanence.



Theresa May said she was pro Brexit. Farage is more authentically pro Brexit than any Tory. 

I'm not saying you're wrong like, it's possible that will happen. But I think the sea change here is the tension within both Labour and the Tories and its important not to fall into the trap of assuming the Tories are indestructible. Nothing lasts forever. 

The Lib Dems gaining ground isn't a sign of a sea change. But in the search for a reliable party of capital, the Lib Dems are likely to be in the mix, reviving their stunted careers and generally being vile.


----------



## treelover (May 14, 2019)

Wilf said:


> My Mum, right wing labourite all her life, deserted them yesterday and postal voted for the Libs (as anti-brexit statement).   Took me all time to not lose it on the way to the postbox.



awful to see the austerity enablers doing so well, people seem to have short memories politically.


----------



## Supine (May 14, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> I voted for this wally. I blame the Labour Party
> View attachment 170981



Wally? He's a legend


----------



## MickiQ (May 14, 2019)

We currently have 2 UKIP's, 2 Tories and 1 Labour. The Labour and 1 of the Tories are running again as is one of the Kippers who is running as 2nd candidate on the Brexit ticket (after Mogg the Merciless's sister), All the real parties plus Brexit, UKIP and Chuckles UK are running a full slate but we've got some (real) indies running as well.
We've had our poll cards but there has been little campaigning, my son had a mass mailing letter off Vince Cable and reduced me to hysterics by not being sure who Cable was.
I've also seen one yellow LibDem poster in someone's garden whilst out for a walk and that is it.


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 14, 2019)

communications received today from brexit, green and labour parties


----------



## chilango (May 14, 2019)

I've had my Brexit Party leaflet. Got handed a People's Vote "vote LibDems/green/chuk" thing outside the coffee shop the other day.

Nothing else.

A few people have left up their Labour/Green posters from the locals, but not many.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (May 14, 2019)

The only leaflets so far are brexit, labour and change uk.


----------



## treelover (May 14, 2019)

Apparently Lib Dems have joined with the Tories and UKIP to oust Labour running Bolton Council.

a warning to left/liberal switchers?


----------



## wayward bob (May 14, 2019)

i'm giving my vote to kid1. have provided her with all leaflets (save the racist ones) and will vote as instructed (with emergency spunking cock in reserve for protesting against my progeny).


----------



## Wilf (May 14, 2019)

wayward bob said:


> i'm giving my vote to kid1. have provided her with all leaflets (save the racist ones) and will vote as instructed (with emergency spunking cock in reserve for protesting against my progeny).


Hope she's under 5. Voting should be restricted to pre-schoolers.


----------



## brogdale (May 14, 2019)

Today's BMG:


----------



## The39thStep (May 14, 2019)

treelover said:


> Apparently Lib Dems have joined with the Tories and UKIP to oust Labour running Bolton Council.
> 
> a warning to left/liberal switchers?


Wouldn't make any difference to them . Don't like the w/class


----------



## brogdale (May 14, 2019)

brogdale said:


> London specific Euro polling from YG for QMUL:
> 
> European poll results:
> (2014 election results in brackets):
> ...


Given that (Greater) London voted 40.1% Leave...Farage only picking up 20% might be seen as something of a failure...or folk changing their minds?


----------



## Dogsauce (May 15, 2019)

treelover said:


> awful to see the austerity enablers doing so well, people seem to have short memories politically.



I think their performance in the local elections (where most of their gains came from Tory voters not turning up) has given them a bit of momentum unfortunately, and people are seeing them as a viable protest vote for remain. Twats.


----------



## treelover (May 15, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Today's BMG:
> 
> View attachment 170995




Guardian comments are full of 'lifelong' labour voters saying they are going to vote LD or Green.


----------



## brogdale (May 15, 2019)

treelover said:


> Guardian comments are full of 'lifelong' labour voters saying they are going to vote LD or Green.


'Guardian' commenters being a fair heuristic for the sort of people who would abandon any ideological beliefs to which they profess and vote for the right party of capital's enablers.


----------



## co-op (May 15, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Given that (Greater) London voted 40.1% Leave...Farage only picking up 20% might be seen as something of a failure...or folk changing their minds?



There's plenty of people who voted leave who wouldn't vote for Farage, I'm one of them.


----------



## brogdale (May 15, 2019)

co-op said:


> There's plenty of people who voted leave who wouldn't vote for Farage, I'm one of them.


Fair point, but 20%?
Interesting.


----------



## chilango (May 15, 2019)

Labour, Green and Chuk through the door today.


----------



## chilango (May 15, 2019)

treelover said:


> Guardian comments are full of 'lifelong' labour voters saying they are going to vote LD or Green.



I know a Labour Party member considering this.


----------



## Ranbay (May 15, 2019)

Brexshit party weeks ago
Today - Plaid and Lid dems... 
nowt else


----------



## brogdale (May 15, 2019)

So far through our (outer) South London letterbox we've had:

1. Brexit party
2. TInGe
3. UKIP

literally; bunch of cunts.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 15, 2019)

Brexit, Green, ChUK and Labour for me so far.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 15, 2019)

In Worthing, I've had Brexit, Labour & Green election addresses so far. 

Nothing from the LDs, Tories, UKIP or Chuckle UK, so far.


----------



## The39thStep (May 15, 2019)

chilango said:


> I know a Labour Party member considering this.


There's thousands of these Fairweather middle class wankers.


----------



## chilango (May 15, 2019)

The39thStep said:


> There's thousands of these Fairweather middle class wankers.


----------



## brogdale (May 15, 2019)

Have we had this one yet?

13% claim that Labour's Brexit policy is "very/fairly clear"....remarkable. Looks rather more like constructed ambiguity than constructive.


----------



## The39thStep (May 15, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Have we had this one yet?
> 
> 13% claim that Labour's Brexit policy is "very/fairly clear"....remarkable. Looks rather more like constructed ambiguity than constructive.
> 
> View attachment 171114


You get the feeling that this shambolic fudge from Labour is a case of normal business will be resumed post Brexit or just hoping it all goes away. It wont of course. The Tories may implode but theres a huge amount of collateral damage for Labour over Brexit.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 16, 2019)

It's going to be a right pain having to wait for the results overnight on Sunday & into Monday morning.


----------



## Orang Utan (May 16, 2019)

That yougov poll is scary
European Parliament voting intention: Brex 34%, Lab 16%, Con 10% (8-9 May) | YouGov


----------



## killer b (May 16, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> That yougov poll is scary
> European Parliament voting intention: Brex 34%, Lab 16%, Con 10% (8-9 May) | YouGov


It shows the balance of lean brexit / lean remain to be roughly 50/50, still. It's just showing a collapse of the Labour vote into Lib Dem & greens, and the Tory vote into Brexit Party. 

The range of the polls is so wide that someone has got their weighting completely off - we all have our preferences which, so I'm trying not to assume it's yougov.


----------



## Steel Icarus (May 16, 2019)

How come the poll has closed two weeks before the election?


----------



## Ranbay (May 16, 2019)




----------



## Wilf (May 16, 2019)

The39thStep said:


> You get the feeling that this shambolic fudge from Labour is a case of normal business will be resumed post Brexit or just hoping it all goes away. It wont of course. The Tories may implode but theres a huge amount of collateral damage for Labour over Brexit.


Yeah. TBH, I don't get it right too often, but I've long thought Labour's fudging and dodging was convincing no one, engaging no one and likely to lead to a situation where they couldn't take advantage of the Tories uber-pantomime.

Here's Kellner making a case that Labour are actually losing remain voters at the moment (not working class brexiteers):
The polls are clear – Labour’s Brexit tactics are failing spectacularly | Peter Kellner

TBH though, it doesn't really matter. Aside from a few more days of 'talks', Labour are not really in the game in the deeper politics of Brexit.


----------



## Teaboy (May 16, 2019)

Wilf said:


> Yeah. TBH, I don't get it right too often, but I've long thought Labour's fudging and dodging was convincing no one, engaging no one and likely to lead to a situation where they couldn't take advantage of the Tories uber-pantomime.
> 
> Here's Kellner making a case that Labour are actually losing remain voters at the moment (not working class brexiteers):
> The polls are clear – Labour’s Brexit tactics are failing spectacularly | Peter Kellner
> ...



Yet the latest polls (see polling thread) for Westminster elections suggest a large lead for Labour.  I wonder why a Guardian article would suggest Labour are failing?


----------



## brogdale (May 16, 2019)

Teaboy said:


> Y I wonder why a Guardian article would suggest Labour are failing?



Toughie, that one.


----------



## killer b (May 16, 2019)

I kind of think that, while Labour's brexit policy _is_ failing up to a point (although they do have a significant lead in the Westminster polls), any alternative policy would risk failing worse in some other way. 

There seems to be a wide assumption that, somewhere, there is a brexit policy platform and political strategy that could see them with a massive lead and on-course to winning the next general election with a large majority. I just can't see it. Move the slider up at one point, it moves down in another.


----------



## brogdale (May 16, 2019)

killer b said:


> I kind of think that, while Labour's brexit policy _is_ failing up to a point (although they do have a significant lead in the Westminster polls), any alternative policy would risk failing worse in some other way.
> 
> There seems to be a wide assumption that, somewhere, there is a brexit policy platform and political strategy that could see them with a massive lead and on-course to winning the next general election with a large majority. I just can't see it. Move the slider up at one point, it moves down in another.


Their analysis from the outset, I'd say.


----------



## killer b (May 16, 2019)

There is no alternate universe where Labour could have a successful brexit policy, so aiming to _fail less than the other guy_ seems to me to be the best they can do.


----------



## brogdale (May 16, 2019)

killer b said:


> There is no alternate universe where Labour could have a successful brexit policy, so aiming to _fail less than the other guy_ seems to me to be the best they can do.


Agreed.
If Labour had wanted to set itself apart as the remain option and ride the 'youth quake' even harder the time for that was May 2017. Beyond that, and the manifesto pledge, there wasn't really any better option for them.


----------



## Wilf (May 16, 2019)

killer b said:


> I kind of think that, while Labour's brexit policy _is_ failing up to a point (although they do have a significant lead in the Westminster polls), any alternative policy would risk failing worse in some other way.
> 
> There seems to be a wide assumption that, somewhere, there is a brexit policy platform and political strategy that could see them with a massive lead and on-course to winning the next general election with a large majority. I just can't see it. Move the slider up at one point, it moves down in another.


Polls/pinch of salt, but Labour at Westminster _are_ polling about 13 points less than they got in the 2017 gen. election. I actually agree that there isn't ready made brexit position there for Labour. Taking a stance leads to alienating one side of their voters or the other, ditto the members and MPs. As a result they have this worst of all worlds.  The only solution would have to have been wrapped in a wider engagement with voters and communities. Start with the policies, the engagement, the organisation. A Lexit if you like, but with an emphasis on the L bit. Doing the left bit, in or out.


----------



## killer b (May 16, 2019)

Wilf said:


> Polls/pinch of salt, but Labour at Westminster _are_ polling about 13 points less than they got in the 2017 gen. election. I actually agree that there isn't ready made brexit position there for Labour. Taking a stance leads to alienating one side of their voters or the other, ditto the members and MPs. As a result they have this worst of all worlds.  The only solution would have to have been wrapped in a wider engagement with voters and communities. Start with the policies, the engagement, the organisation. A Lexit if you like, but with an emphasis on the L bit. Doing the left bit, in or out.


Surely by promising to honour the result of the referendum and trying to focus on domestic policy, that's more or less what they've tried to do?


----------



## Wilf (May 16, 2019)

killer b said:


> Surely by promising to honour the result of the referendum and trying to focus on domestic policy, that's more or less what they've tried to do?


I'm on about something different though, Labour haven't kicked on from Corbyn's own victories and from the 2017 result. They haven't moved beyond Labourism, they have retained a traditional social democratic view of how to organise and represent. Not surprising in some ways, that's what Corbyn is. But it has left them playing brexit out as a party issue and a Westminster issue/game.

But on what you say specifically, yes, just about. You could take that from Labour's headline message on Breixt - just about. But it has been wrapped up in almost permanent equivocation about 2nd refs, messages full of equivocation - to the point where only 13% have a clue what Labour thinks.


----------



## killer b (May 16, 2019)

Wilf said:


> But it has been wrapped up in almost permanent equivocation about 2nd refs, messages full of equivocation - to the point where only 13% have a clue what Labour thinks.


Sure - which has been forced on the leadership by the activist base and the PLP. Which should point towards what would happen in the event of a more full-throated lexit position.


----------



## Wilf (May 16, 2019)

killer b said:


> Sure - which has been forced on the leadership by the activist base and the PLP. Which should point towards what would happen in the event of a more full-throated lexit position.


I don't disagree with you really, Labour's stance may have been the least bad and avoided bigger schisms. Ultimately though, Labour haven't escaped from the brexit dilemma because they have nowhere to escape to.


----------



## brogdale (May 16, 2019)

Wales putting the tories into 6th place on 7 %!
But interesting to note that both main parties -10% compared to 2014.


----------



## Argonia (May 16, 2019)

Bit confused by that Welsh poll, total down is 20 per cent and up is 47.


----------



## chilango (May 16, 2019)

Argonia said:


> Bit confused by that Welsh poll, total down is 20 per cent and up is 47.


UKIP


----------



## farmerbarleymow (May 16, 2019)

Got a leaflet from milkshake boy today.  Will scan it tomorrow and post it up.


----------



## The39thStep (May 16, 2019)

Theres a Brexit Party video showing clips of Benn and Foot and comparing that with modern day Labour which will do well with quite a few older w'class voters.


----------



## William of Walworth (May 16, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Wales putting the tories into 6th place on 7 %!
> But interesting to note that both main parties -10% compared to 2014.
> 
> View attachment 171191



Not in any way disbelieving that poll (  )

But I'd like to know more about which specific parts of Wales Brexit will do best in? And in which parts Labour might (?) do less badly.


----------



## moochedit (May 16, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> It's going to be a right pain having to wait for the results overnight on Sunday & into Monday morning.



The monday is a bank holiday though so you can stay up if you want to.


----------



## toblerone3 (May 16, 2019)

I'm voting GREEN in the Euros, Greens are anti-Brexit, for radical change on responding to climate change and the Euros are proportional representation. Its a win-win-win choice!
Edit or delete this


----------



## brogdale (May 16, 2019)

William of Walworth said:


> Not in any way disbelieving that poll (  )
> 
> But I'd like to know more about which specific parts of Wales Brexit will do best in? And in which parts Labour might (?) do less badly.


I'd imagine that the Brx support will overlap significantly with where UKIP did well in the 2015 election:


----------



## Tooter (May 17, 2019)

Either way can it get any worse?  terrifying....


----------



## moochedit (May 17, 2019)

S☼I said:


> How come the poll has closed two weeks before the election?



Opinion polls are normally done over 24 or 48 hours. They are just a snapshot of how people intend to vote at that point of the campaign.


----------



## moochedit (May 17, 2019)

moochedit said:


> Opinion polls are normally done over 24 or 48 hours. They are just a snapshot of how people intend to vote at that point of the campaign.



Ah  i think you mean the poll on this thread. I thought you meant the you gov poll.


----------



## brogdale (May 17, 2019)

YG for Murdoch has Lab in 3rd in Euro polling (on a relatively large sample)...


BXP35+1 
LD 16+1 
LAB 15-1 
GRN 10-1 
CON 9-1 
CHUK 5= 
UKIP 3=  (sample 7,192)
 FW May 12-18


----------



## moochedit (May 17, 2019)

If real vote is same as this You gov poll then how the parties feel about it (not how i feel about it)

BXP35+1 
LD 16+1
LAB 15-1
GRN 10-1
CON 9-1
CHUK 5=
UKIP 3=


----------



## moochedit (May 17, 2019)

Can't see either ukip or changeuk existing for much longer after the euro elections if the polls are acurate.


----------



## brogdale (May 17, 2019)

Bit of detail from that latest YG...


----------



## brogdale (May 17, 2019)

and this...showing that what's left of the tory 'core'  (9% of popular vote) is >70% remain voters.


----------



## Teaboy (May 17, 2019)

moochedit said:


> Can't see either ukip or changeuk existing for much longer after the euro elections if the polls are acurate.



Yeah, well the Chuckies will exist in one form or another until the next GE.  I can see a rebranding happening though after this mess.

As for UKIP if they bomb at the Euro elections you do have to wonder what the point of continuing is?  If they can't put up a decent showing on what should be home ground then there is nothing left for them.  They should just admit defeat and throw the towel in.


----------



## kebabking (May 17, 2019)

Teaboy said:


> Yeah, well the Chuckies will exist in one form or another until the next GE.  I can see a rebranding happening though after this mess.
> 
> As for UKIP if they bomb at the Euro elections you do have to wonder what the point of continuing is?  If they can't put up a decent showing on what should be home ground then there is nothing left for them.  They should just admit defeat and throw the towel in.



i agree about the Chuckies - they were only ever a dozen no-marks, they've no membership, no structure, and only the Guardian actually supported the. when they scrape 1% of the vote in the Euro's we'll see some furious back-peddalling over whether they were ever a political party at all, and they'll all disappear at the next GE.

the Kippers on the other hand - no, they'll stay on, if only in 3 weirdo's and a dog form. it doesn't require many loons to claim the infrastructure and form of a political party much as, in late April 1945, the Third Riech only extended as far as the front door of the bunker - but that doesn't stop headbangers waving big hands over small maps and three people holding two dozen different 'offices' within an organisation.

far too much history in that brand for it to disappear.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 17, 2019)

I am finding it so funny just how bad Chuckle UK is doing, FFS they couldn't run a bath, let alone a party or a country.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 17, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Bit of detail from that latest YG...
> 
> View attachment 171249



Very interesting - Labour losing more voters to Remain parties (43%) but also to Leave parties (17%). Tories losing 65% to more 'Brexity' parties and 12% to Remain parties - 13% if you count Labour. 

Many of those switching to Greens or Lib Dems from Labour will probably switch back at a GE though.


----------



## Riklet (May 17, 2019)

Whatever happens, CHUK doing badly and then subsequently splitting/imploding will surely be some consolation and cheer us all up a bit.

I think Brexit party will do even better than 35% they very literally have the momentum. And no policies so hey, easy for some!


----------



## William of Walworth (May 17, 2019)

We've belatedly received a Labour leaflet for the Euros. Looks quite generic. It very obviously reads like they just wish it was a General Election, their section on Europe starts the text but is very short. Single mention of a "peoples' vote", last sentence of that bit. Somewhat more on anti-austerity ("investment in Wales"), employment rights, anti-climate change chat. Not bad, but unless Brexit/the EU thoroughly bore you** it's far from inspiring ...

**Secret vote-source, not reflected in polls?? 

We now have the full set, bar Tories (no Change UK either, are they standing in all Euro constituencies?). We have (worst first) leaflets from Brexit/UKIP, Lib Dem, Green, Plaid Cymru, Labour.

I'll still vote Labour in a no doubt failing attempt to restrict Brexit Party's lead. We need to get our postal votes off at the weekend.


----------



## DotCommunist (May 17, 2019)

my labour leaflet has corbyns bonce on it. IIRC this is the first bit of lab lit I have had that dared to use his face


----------



## existentialist (May 17, 2019)

I'm intrigued by what the LedByDonkeys Ann Widdecombe tweet was that they've deleted...?


----------



## killer b (May 17, 2019)

it was this, which a number of people raised the issue that it assumes the reader would think this was a bad thing to think...


----------



## kebabking (May 17, 2019)

The Labour one here - West Mids constituency - is just generic stuff: one paragraph about a motherhood and apple pie deal with the EU with a distinctly _remainy _tone, and the other 75% is Westminster stuff and nowt to do with the European parliament elections...

Corbyn is on this one as well.

I think Brexit party will walk it here - and there's been no Tory leaflets.


----------



## moochedit (May 17, 2019)

kebabking said:


> The Labour one here - West Mids constituency - is just generic stuff: one paragraph about a motherhood and apple pie deal with the EU with a distinctly _remainy _tone, and the other 75% is Westminster stuff and nowt to do with the European parliament elections...
> 
> Corbyn is on this one as well.
> 
> I think Brexit party will walk it here - and there's been no Tory leaflets.



I'm in the west midlands and so far i have only had a brexit party leaflet.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 17, 2019)

I've still only had Brexit, Labour & Green ones here, nothing from the Tories, LD's, UKIP or Chuckle UK, which I think are the only other ones standing in the South-East.

* Oh, just checked, there's a few more standing, and wasting their money - Socialist Party of Great Britain, UK European Union Party, and three separate independents. 

European elections 2019: the full list of MEP candidates standing in the EU vote across the UK


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 17, 2019)

Looking at the Brexit list for the SE, link above, none of the 7 candidates featured on the mailshot I got are actually standing in the SE, 6 are on lists for other regions, but one doesn't seem to be standing at all - Joel Chilaka*, a black medical student. 

* I only mention he's black, because of claims the BP are racist, and there he was featured, but doesn't appear to be actually standing anywhere, very odd.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 17, 2019)




----------



## Just saying ... (May 17, 2019)

Got my postal voting slip yesterday and it shows Tommy Robinson as one of the candidates for my region but with no other details against his name.  Couple of questions came to mind:

1.  Can a candidate use an alias instead of their legal name without at least showing 7it in parenthesis (maybe this is how Lord Buckethead, Mr Fishfinger, et al do it?)

2.  Can a candidate show no party allegiance or that they are an ‘independent’

No intention of voting for him, just wondered what the rules were.


----------



## killer b (May 17, 2019)

Just saying ... said:


> Got my postal voting slip yesterday and it shows Tommy Robinson as one of the candidates for my region but with no other details against his name.  Couple of questions came to mind:
> 
> 1.  Can a candidate use an alias instead of their legal name without at least showing 7it in parenthesis (maybe this is how Lord Buckethead, Mr Fishfinger, et al do it?)
> 
> ...


I've seen this question asked a lot - I wonder why people think it matters? The answer fwiw is 1. yes, and 2. yes.


----------



## killer b (May 17, 2019)

Literally no-one who's into their politics gives a shit that some of these people aren't authentic voices of the working class lads. Saying _he's really called Stephen Yaxley Lennon!_ over and over again is not going to convince anyone who finds his arguments compelling that they shouldn't agree with him.


----------



## chilango (May 17, 2019)

After I had s personalized mail shot from the Brexit Party my wife has had one from the Lib Dems 

I'm not sure who's come off looking worse!


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 17, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> I've still only had Brexit, Labour & Green ones here, nothing from the Tories, LD's, UKIP or Chuckle UK, which I think are the only other ones standing in the South-East.
> 
> * Oh, just checked, there's a few more standing, and wasting their money - Socialist Party of Great Britain, UK European Union Party, and three separate independents.
> 
> European elections 2019: the full list of MEP candidates standing in the EU vote across the UK



Love that the Small Party of Good Boys has fielded a full slate of 10 candidates


----------



## Wilf (May 17, 2019)

By the by, last time the northwest got 3 ukip, 3 lab and 3 tory elected. Nobody else got a seat. Haven't seen any northwest specific opinion polls, but I can't see Robinson getting anywhere near the threshold.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 17, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Love that the Small Party of Good Boys has fielded a full slate of 10 candidates



Dare to dream.

ETA: I think they just listed the 10 candidates so they could fuck with the heads of the Left Trainspotters who've been using the same 'Conference in a telephone box' joke for the past 37 years.


----------



## killer b (May 17, 2019)

two tories. assuming a similar turnout, Robinson would need to get a personal vote of 175,000, when the vast majority of far right will be voting Brexit or UKIP. no chance at all.


----------



## co-op (May 17, 2019)

English Jobs for English Workers anyone?

English Democrats leaflet's promising me that. Didn't even know who they were.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 17, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Love that the Small Party of Good Boys has fielded a full slate of 10 candidates



I don't get why they are wasting their time & money standing in the SE, and not in London.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 17, 2019)

Had the same green leaflet twice here on glossy paper, nobody else. Bit wasteful. Can’t see the Brexit boys bothering with round here tbh, Green Party has all three council seats on this ward. Haven’t had anything personal to either of us, but our voter registration only arrived today so we won’t be on anyone’s list.


----------



## moochedit (May 18, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> I don't get why they are wasting their time & money standing in the SE, and not in London.



Perhaps they thought the south east euro region included london?


----------



## A380 (May 18, 2019)

I haven’t ever voted anything but Labour since I was 18. Going to vote Green if I can get my hand to agree...


----------



## Johnny Vodka (May 18, 2019)

Probably Scottish Greens.


----------



## PursuedByBears (May 18, 2019)

A380 said:


> I haven’t ever voted anything but Labour since I was 18. Going to vote Green if I can get my hand to agree...


Same here!


----------



## not a trot (May 18, 2019)

Not voting as all the songs are shit.


----------



## magneze (May 18, 2019)

I thought that was the Borg. Introducing her as Madonna was quite surprising.


----------



## brogdale (May 18, 2019)

Another single figure Euro polling number for the vermin from ComRes...


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 19, 2019)

Anyone who votes Green even once is fundamentally wrong. 

I've toyed tonight with the idea of voting Labour, just because I don't want to fuel stories about how Labour lost votes because they weren't fervent enough about a second referendum. But honestly, what is there for the left to vote for in this election? Nothing. 

I would actually vote for the Small Party of Good Boys if they were standing in Yorkshire. Fuck it. That No 2 EU - Yes to Democracy lash up had a shit name but I'd give anything for it right now. It's pathetic, Corbyn is offering nothing. People keep telling me we have to stop the Brexit party, but there's zero positive alternative.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 19, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Another single figure Euro polling number for the vermin from ComRes...
> 
> View attachment 171440



The vermin getting less than 10% will be funny I guess. And the #LunaticTinge failure. But it's small mercies innit.


----------



## Nigel (May 19, 2019)

Thought this might be interesting !
After riots of 2001 incidences around 2010 in Oldham and other Northern Towns & Capitals !

Tommy's entourage being confronted by 'Muslim' 'Pakistani' Asian 'youf' and supporters whilst canvassing in predominantly 'white' working class/underprivileged estate.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 19, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Anyone who votes Green even once is fundamentally wrong.
> I've toyed tonight with the idea of voting Labour, just because I don't want to fuel stories about how Labour lost votes because they weren't fervent enough about a second referendum. But honestly, what is there for the left to vote for in this election? Nothing.


Not bad piece from Gary Young on this, which does highlight the key question If you didn’t desert Labour over the Iraq war, why give up on it over Brexit?


> Is Corbyn’s fudge on Brexit worse than Blair’s certainty about invading Iraq? If someone can vote and leaflet for a party that launched an illegal invasion that led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and instability in the region for years to come because they felt that party had a broader purpose, then by what moral yardstick is the party’s position on Brexit too much to bear?


I mean I'm an anarchist, for me electoral politics is a rigged game. But the idea that fucking Brexit is the line in the sand - not the support for privatisation, not the attacks on workers and strikers, not the selling out of the miners, not the murderous foreign policy, not the attacks on the disabled, but a second referendum on the EU - does my fucking head in.

Like you if anything this crap has made me more likely to vote Labour.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (May 19, 2019)

I'm voting for the Labour candidate.


----------



## tim (May 19, 2019)

Lupa said:


> I'm voting for the Labour candidate.


You can't vote for a candidate, just for a party lost of candidates, (spelling error noted but not corrected because it seemed inappropriate to have done so).


----------



## Baronage-Phase (May 19, 2019)

tim said:


> You can't vote for a candidate, just for a party lost of candidates, (spelling error noted but not corrected because it seemed inappropriate to have done so).



Well I'm not voting for the FF or FG or independents...so I am voting for the Labour candidate in my area...

And what was the spelling mistake?


----------



## Johnny Vodka (May 19, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Anyone who votes Green even once is fundamentally wrong.



That's interesting.  May I ask why?


----------



## tim (May 19, 2019)

Lupa said:


> Well I'm not voting for the FF or FG or independents...so I am voting for the Labour candidate in my area...
> 
> And what was the spelling mistake?




Party list -you get to vote for a party which fields a list of candidates rather than for an individual. Unless, that is you live in Northern Ireland, where you get a Single Transferable Vote.


----------



## tim (May 19, 2019)

Johnny Vodka said:


> That's interesting.  May I ask why?


Because they are the Tory Party at Muesli. Lots of nasty volkish sentiments below the surface.


----------



## Johnny Vodka (May 19, 2019)

tim said:


> Because they are the Tory Party at Muesli. Lots of nasty volkish sentiments below the surface.



For example?  Personally I think environmental issues are of huge concern.  What section of society (not necessarily in this country) do you think will suffer the most from climate change?  I think they also go further on fighting the arms trade and ending the drug war than other parties - also stuff that affects the poor more than the rich.


----------



## tim (May 19, 2019)

Johnny Vodka said:


> For example?  Personally I think environmental issues are of huge concern.  What section of society (not necessarily in this country) do you think will suffer the most from climate change?  I think they also go further on fighting the arms trade and ending the drug war than other parties - also stuff that affects the poor more than the rich.



The poor won't benefit from rejecting advances in agricultural technology, including GM; they won't benefit from a refusal to build decent sea defences; and they won't benefit from a refusal to countenance the use of nuclear power.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (May 19, 2019)

tim said:


> Party list -you get to vote for a party which fields a list of candidates rather than for an individual. Unless, that is you live in Northern Ireland, where you get a Single Transferable Vote.




I am in Eire. There is only one Labour candidate in the area where I can vote.


----------



## tim (May 19, 2019)

Lupa said:


> I am in Eire. There is only one Labour candidate in the area where I can vote.



I assumed you were in the UK, not because I'm an arrogant English cunt but because this is thread is in the "UK politics and current affairs" forum.


----------



## Johnny Vodka (May 19, 2019)

tim said:


> The poor won't benefit from rejecting advances in agricultural technology, including GM; they won't benefit from a refusal to build decent sea defences; and they won't benefit from a refusal to countenance the use of nuclear power.



Sea defences, for a lot of people, won't be built in time.  In Scotland, it's only the SNP and the greens that will rescue us from Brexit - which is definitely our right, as Scotland didn't vote for it.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (May 19, 2019)

tim said:


> I assumed you were in the UK, not because I'm an arrogant English cunt but because this is thread is in the "UK politics and current affairs" forum.



And I assumed it was a thread about the european elections.
Just was clarifying things...not accusing you of arrogance or cuntishness.


----------



## tim (May 19, 2019)

Johnny Vodka said:


> Sea defences, for a lot of people, won't be built in time.  In Scotland, it's only the SNP and the greens that will rescue us from Brexit - which is definitely our right, as Scotland didn't vote for it.



Clearly they can be when needed, the Dutch spent much of the last 500 years reclaiming land that was below sea level with with access to much less technology than we have now.

Better a tartan Tory than a Green Tory.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 19, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Not bad piece from Gary Young on this, which does highlight the key question If you didn’t desert Labour over the Iraq war, why give up on it over Brexit?
> 
> I mean I'm an anarchist, for me electoral politics is a rigged game. But the idea that fucking Brexit is the line in the sand - not the support for privatisation, not the attacks on workers and strikers, not the selling out of the miners, not the murderous foreign policy, not the attacks on the disabled, but a second referendum on the EU - does my fucking head in.
> 
> Like you if anything this crap has made me more likely to vote Labour.



I'm not an anarchist but it's a rigged game for me too. I don't usually vote Labour and Corbyn is the reason I have once or twice. I accept the point about people who weren't put off by Blair or Iraq war but its not really what I meant.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 19, 2019)

Johnny Vodka said:


> Personally I think environmental issues are of huge concern.



We know, you said here: Why the Green Party is shit


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 19, 2019)

tim said:


> Clearly they can be when needed, the Dutch spent much of the last 500 years reclaiming land that was below sea level with with access to much less technology than we have now.
> 
> Better a tartan Tory than a Green Tory.



Much of a muchness really.


----------



## Poi E (May 19, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Much of a muchness really.



One aims for the destruction of the British state. That is highly laudable.

edit: actually, the Tories and the Brexit Party seem to be aiming for it, too.


----------



## tim (May 19, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Much of a muchness really.


Mulch of a muchness


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 19, 2019)

Labour panics as remain voters switch to Liberal Democrats

An interesting piece. Even among remain voters the support for the LDs is below 30%. But Labour strategists - working to deliver ‘socialism without the working class’ - are panicked more by a move away from it by remain vote losses in a London rather than the BP which is racking up what should be labour votes practically _everywhere else. _Also no mention of Scotland where Labour is now FOURTH in the polls.

This is what happens when you place your strategic eggs in a metropolitan vote possessive of cultural and social capital. It happened to the left in France and it’s now happening here.


----------



## Johnny Vodka (May 19, 2019)

tim said:


> Better a tartan Tory than a Green Tory.



I don't think many SNP voters identify as any sort of Tory.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 19, 2019)

Johnny Vodka said:


> I don't think many SNP voters identify as any sort of Tory.



I bet you don't either.


----------



## Johnny Vodka (May 19, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> I bet you don't either.



I don't.  Are you accusing me?   Btw, I'm not an SNP voter but they are in the pool of parties I'd consider.  I'm not sure if I've ever voted for them and I certainly didn't vote for Scottish independence _last time_.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 19, 2019)

Smokeandsteam said:


> An interesting piece. Even among leave voters the support for the LDs is below 30%.


You mean Remain voters surely? But I agree with your general point.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 19, 2019)

Looking at the poll on here, I am not surprised a few are intending to vote for the BP, if you support Brexit, it's the logical place to go for a protest vote.

But, WTF are the two intending to vote UKIP thinking, FFS it's basically the BNP now.


----------



## brogdale (May 19, 2019)

YG, London only Euro polling:


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 19, 2019)

Vince Cable has just said 'Bollocks to Brexit' on The Andrew Marr Show, Marr wasn't impressed.


----------



## agricola (May 19, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> Looking at the poll on here, I am not surprised a few are intending to vote for the BP, if you support Brexit, it's the logical place to go for a protest vote.
> 
> But, WTF are the two intending to vote UKIP thinking, FFS it's basically the BNP now.



I blame the basement dwellers of Battersea.


----------



## chilango (May 19, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> Vince Cable has just said 'Bollocks to Brexit' on The Andrew Marr Show, Marr wasn't impressed.



Edgelord for da yoot*

*...and by the youth I mean middle-class thitysomethings in University towns in the South of England


----------



## killer b (May 19, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> Vince Cable has just said 'Bollocks to Brexit' on The Andrew Marr Show, Marr wasn't impressed.


He's such an iconoclast. Jonny rotten reborn.


----------



## chilango (May 19, 2019)

killer b said:


> He's such an iconoclast. Jonny rotten reborn.


----------



## killer b (May 19, 2019)

_Bollocks to Brexit_ is a great slogan if you're wanting to drive disaffected remain voters towards your party. Not so great if you're wanting some sort of solution for the impasse brexit represents.


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 19, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> You mean Remain voters surely? But I agree with your general point.



Yeah, typo. Will edit.


----------



## Poi E (May 19, 2019)

killer b said:


> _Bollocks to Brexit_ is a great slogan if you're wanting to drive disaffected remain voters towards your party. Not so great if you're wanting some sort of solution for the impasse brexit represents.



What impasse? Get shot of Scotland and NI and there's a clear majority for Brexit. Bit of honesty about borders and we're done.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 19, 2019)

On Sky News, the Sophy Ridge on Sunday show had both Gerard Batten for UKIP & Anna Soubry from Chuckle UK on, fuck me, what a couple of complete Muppets, both in total denial about their poll ratings, what a pair of deluded fuckwits.


----------



## killer b (May 19, 2019)

Poi E said:


> What impasse? Get shot of Scotland and NI and there's a clear majority for Brexit. Bit of honesty about borders and we're done.


why get rid of those? why not wales & kent?


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 19, 2019)

killer b said:


> why get rid of those? why not wales & kent?



I think their point is Scotland & NI voted remain, whereas England & Wales voted to leave.


----------



## Beermoth (May 19, 2019)

Wasn't going to vote but FBPE nitwits might force my hand to put an X next to Labour.


----------



## ItWillNeverWork (May 19, 2019)

What's FBPE mean?


----------



## killer b (May 19, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> I think their point is Scotland & NI voted remain, whereas England & Wales voted to leave.


Wales and Kent voted to leave, if they were independent there'd be a clear majority for remain (tbf I've not done the maths so there might not quite be, but you get the idea)


----------



## Beermoth (May 19, 2019)

ItWillNeverWork said:


> What's FBPE mean?



It's a twitter hashtag - Follow Back Pro-EU. Basically a hashtag for die-hard remainers who want a People's Vote etc.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 19, 2019)

killer b said:


> Wales and Kent voted to leave, if they were independent there'd be a clear majority for remain (tbf I've not done the maths so there might not quite be, but you get the idea)



As you say, you haven't done the maths, and it wouldn't work out as you suggest, and that's ignoring the fact that Kent is not a country.

Two countries voted leave, two countries voted remain, which I believe was Poi E's point.


----------



## killer b (May 19, 2019)

Northern Ireland isn't a country either?


----------



## killer b (May 19, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> As you say, you haven't done the maths, and it wouldn't work out as you suggest, and that's ignoring the fact that Kent is not a country.


Did you _actually_ do the maths btw? just so you could say 'you haven't done the maths' on the internet to someone who just said they hadn't done the maths?


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 19, 2019)

killer b said:


> Northern Ireland isn't a country either?



Whilst not universally accepted as, many consider it to be, there's no legal definition which explicitly states whether it's a country, state, or province.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 19, 2019)

killer b said:


> Did you _actually_ do the maths btw? just so you could say 'you haven't done the maths' on the internet to someone who just said they hadn't done the maths?



No. 

I just know the population of Wales & Kent, and the small different between the leave/remain share of votes, wouldn't add-up to changing the overall results, it's a case common sense, didn't need any working out.


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 19, 2019)

ItWillNeverWork said:


> What's FBPE mean?





Beermoth said:


> It's a twitter hashtag - Follow Back Pro-EU. Basically a hashtag for die-hard remainers who want a People's Vote etc.



oh

i thought it meant "full breakfast, poached eggs"


----------



## Poi E (May 19, 2019)

Kent is a dormitory county for London. Like Essex but without the sense of humour.


----------



## Lurdan (May 19, 2019)

Well the pace is really heating up here, in what's clearly going to be the most significant election in the entire history of the wingeing middle classes. Another leaflet arrived in the post, this one from UKIP.












Ever since the Council fitted a new front door with what was described as an "intumescent letterbox" my mail has been regularly folded in two in the process of inserting it. However this leaflet rather looked as if it had been pre-scrunched before delivery. About the only interesting thing about it really. 

There was also a leaflet from Puregym in Whitechapel. This one offers me an introductory membership for only £24.99 a month with "No Contract", although I see in tiny print that a "joining fee may apply". Out of my price range but their leaflet does seem rather more professionally produced.


----------



## chilango (May 19, 2019)

We've had a second, bigger, Green one. Hand delivered.

Nothing from Tories or UKIP or SPGB.


----------



## brogdale (May 19, 2019)

Poi E said:


> Kent is a dormitory county for London. Like Essex but without the sense of humour.


West of the Medway, maybe; that bit's nothing to do with the real county.


----------



## magneze (May 19, 2019)

magneze said:


> I thought that was the Borg. Introducing her as Madonna was quite surprising.


It's possible that I may have posted this in the wrong thread.


----------



## stavros (May 19, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> Vince Cable has just said 'Bollocks to Brexit' on The Andrew Marr Show, Marr wasn't impressed.



I'm not sure bollocks is a swear word anymore. Dimbleby used it many times, quoting Barry Gardiner on QT before Christmas, although admittedly that was at about 11pm

Has anyone had anything through the door from the English Democrats? Based on a double-sided A5 flyer, they don't appear overly open-minded, pledging "independence for England". Independence from what exactly they don't say.


----------



## gosub (May 19, 2019)

Still spoiling my ballot.


----------



## Poi E (May 20, 2019)

The height of satire hearing a British citizen talk about a lack of democracy in European instutitions. A country with an unelected head of state, unelected PM, unelected upper house, no written constitution and risible powers to local or provincial government and non-proportional representation and a crippling caste system in England. FFS, Englandland is a democratic myth.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 20, 2019)

Are you talking about the video? Have you listened to it? Its a load of liberal pro-EU guff, it makes democracy electing someone who then gets to makes choices for you.

And socialists should be attacking the EU as an anti-democratic neo-liberal institution. For all the faults of UK democracy it's still miles more democratic than the EU.


----------



## tim (May 20, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> As you say, you haven't done the maths, and it wouldn't work out as you suggest, and that's ignoring the fact that Kent is not a country.
> 
> Two countries voted leave, two countries voted remain, which I believe was Poi E's point.



Kent used to be a country with its own king. There's no reason it can be again. Why should the Jutes continue to suffer under the heel of their tyrannous West Saxon overlords. First Brexit then Kentex!


----------



## Mr Retro (May 20, 2019)

I got this from remainvoter.com yesterday so I’ll be voting for Change UK


“London - Vote Change UK

Current Polling predicts: 3 Remainer seats across two parties.
Smart Voting indicates: We can gain a 4th seat for a third pro-European party. 

Lib Dem and Green seats look secure, so RemainVoter.com recommends vote Change UK to gain a 4th Remain seat in London. With Labour being non-committal, this means pro-Brexit parties cannot claim the capital.

We only recommend when the number of Remain seats increase and Leave seats decrease.”


----------



## Poi E (May 20, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Are you talking about the video? Have you listened to it? Its a load of liberal pro-EU guff, it makes democracy electing someone who then gets to makes choices for you.
> 
> And socialists should be attacking the EU as an anti-democratic neo-liberal institution. For all the faults of UK democracy it's still miles more democratic than the EU.



Socialists should be attacking the British state, the founder of all things neoliberal and a criminal organisation.


----------



## gosub (May 20, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Are you talking about the video? Have you listened to it? Its a load of liberal pro-EU guff, it makes democracy electing someone who then gets to makes choices for you.
> 
> And socialists should be attacking the EU as an anti-democratic neo-liberal institution. For all the faults of UK democracy it's still miles more democratic than the EU.


There are problems with both.

HOWEVER

The reforms the EU needs  ..what to do about insitutional reform, what to do about the EUro and bankrupt states, what to do about hundreds of thousands of people turning up at the EU'S external border.. being outside Schengen and the EUro the UK''s input would be limited at best.

The bigger problem in regards 'democracy' is a forth estate that never covered EUrope properly, still doesn't...and you can't have transparency or accountability if the main stream media won't hold that particular foot to the flame properly...the best they are prepared to do that for is Westminster


----------



## Poi E (May 20, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> For all the faults of UK democracy it's still miles more democratic than the EU.



Heading into liberalism defending the British state.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 20, 2019)

Mr Retro said:


> I got this from remainvoter.com yesterday so I’ll be voting for Change UK
> 
> 
> “London - Vote Change UK
> ...



They are recommending the same for the south-east, but be fucked if I would ever vote for Chuckle UK.


----------



## Poi E (May 20, 2019)

Nigel gets my vote I'm voting tactically.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 20, 2019)

tim said:


> Kent used to be a country with its own king. There's no reason it can be again. Why should the Jutes continue to suffer under the heel of their tyrannous West Saxon overlords. First Brexit then Kentex!


those are teuchter coins


----------



## redsquirrel (May 20, 2019)

Poi E said:


> Socialists should be attacking the British state, the founder of all things neoliberal and a criminal organisation.


Oh come on that's far too simplistic a view of neoliberalism. But yes of course they should be attacking the British state that doesn't mean that should not be also be attacking.


Poi E said:


> Heading into liberalism defending the British state.


Really you are seriously going to try to claim that the EU is not less democratic than the UK? danny la rouge neatly summarises the situation here.


danny la rouge said:


> So, no.  It is not as democratic as even Westminster.  It is a deliberately structured technocratic stitch up, devised to appear like a democracy, but not in any meaningful way being directly accountable to its electorate.


----------



## Poi E (May 20, 2019)

No, of course not. But, until we remove the state a supra-state body will always come into existence. Oh, hopeless old lefty. I don't fucking know.

That said, many Brexiteers must agree with those arguing for Scottish independence that Westminster does not respond to the will of the electorate.

rotten mood as just came off a horribly heated call with a mate in Barnsley who is moving so far to the right it gives me the shits. He used to be Labour.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 20, 2019)

Well I might quibble about 'always' but I agree with the general thrust. But that doesn't mean that labour cannot attack states and capital by the removal/weakening of supra-state bodies. By attacking the EU, WTO, IMF whatever labour is attacking the national state.


----------



## Poi E (May 20, 2019)

After my call I came away with exactly the same feeling as my arch-Farage friend: tear the whole fucking edifice down. Not very helpful, really, being consumed with anger.


----------



## gosub (May 20, 2019)

Poi E said:


> The height of satire hearing a British citizen talk about a lack of democracy in European instutitions. A country with an unelected head of state, unelected PM, unelected upper house, no written constitution and risible powers to local or provincial government and non-proportional representation and a crippling caste system in England. FFS, Englandland is a democratic myth.



kurzgesagt is based in Munich


----------



## Poi E (May 20, 2019)

Didn't view before my rant.


----------



## killer b (May 20, 2019)

Poi E said:


> rotten mood as just came off a horribly heated call with a mate in Barnsley who is moving so far to the right it gives me the shits. He used to be Labour.


I know the feeling. My dad was talking about voting Lib Dem the other night too.


----------



## Poi E (May 20, 2019)

short memories eh


----------



## cantsin (May 20, 2019)

really can't be arsed to vote for New Lab Remaniac Adonis ( ffs  ) down here, though fellow remainer Claire Moody is alright -


----------



## tim (May 20, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> those are teuchter coins



It's a gold shilling of, the surprisingly  hirsute, King Eadbald son of Bertha  Kent Queen. If Kent could mint gold 5p's in the seventh century imagine what it could do today if freed


----------



## Wilf (May 20, 2019)

I'm expecting the labour leaflet to have Corbyn's head facing both ways.


----------



## Poi E (May 20, 2019)

Too many who identify primarily as English and not Kentish for independence to happen. Even if it did, irredentist forces at Westminster would quash the brief, glorious moment of independence.

Yorkshire, now there you have a place ripe for independence.


----------



## hot air baboon (May 20, 2019)

the British state surely has a tacit mandate or legitimacy that just accrues over centuries of existence, practice & precedent regardless of the huge inequalities built into its institutions. The EU just doesn't IMO & the lack of consensus on this legitimacy between Remain & Leave is really at the root of the impasse - particularly in Scotland where they are effectively attempting to drop the former for the latter


----------



## DotCommunist (May 20, 2019)

Wilf said:


> I'm expecting the labour leaflet to have Corbyn's head facing both ways.


As Janus lol. Thats beginnings and transitions as well as duality.


----------



## brogdale (May 20, 2019)

Poi E said:


> Too many who identify primarily as English and not _*Kentish*_



They don't; that's the Saxon hoard West of the Great River.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 20, 2019)

tim said:


> It's a gold shilling of, the surprisingly  hirsute, King Eadbald son of Bertha  Kent Queen. If Kent could mint gold 5p's in the seventh century imagine what it could do today if freed


it's a gold shilling designed by teuchter


----------



## tim (May 20, 2019)

brogdale said:


> They don't; that's the Saxon hoard West of the Great River.



Appropriating the horde's hoard would help give the Kingdom of Kent a firm financial footing.


----------



## brogdale (May 20, 2019)

tim said:


> Appropriating the horde's hoard would help give the Kingdom of Kent a firm financial footing.


----------



## brogdale (May 20, 2019)

It'll be a republic with the capital rightfully restored in the peoples' free city of Canterbury...but this really needs another thread. Apols for all the OT Kentery


----------



## gosub (May 20, 2019)

tim said:


> It's a gold shilling of, the surprisingly  hirsute, King Eadbald son of Bertha  Kent Queen. If Kent could mint gold 5p's in the seventh century imagine what it could do today if freed


How are you planning on resolving the Man of Kent Kentish Man debacle?


----------



## Wilf (May 20, 2019)

gosub said:


> How are you planning on resolving the Man of Kent Kentish Man debacle?


Phase two of the Withdrawal Negotiations. Kick that can down the road.


----------



## tim (May 20, 2019)

gosub said:


> How are you planning on resolving the Man of Kent Kentish Man debacle?



A wall!

"People often think I'm from Kent. I hear them whisper it as I walk past."


----------



## gosub (May 20, 2019)

Typical another binary solution to be resolved at a later date, surely Kentishness is a spectrum


----------



## redsquirrel (May 20, 2019)

Poi E said:


> rotten mood as just came off a horribly heated call with a mate in Barnsley who is moving so far to the right it gives me the shits. He used to be Labour.


Tis depressing seeing people you thought of as comrades moving to a politics that is just horrible.


----------



## treelover (May 20, 2019)

There were ex Trade Unionists who joined the BNP in Barnsley, recall a R4 documentary on it.


----------



## gentlegreen (May 20, 2019)

I'm now informed that strategically in the SW I need to vote for the anti-science Greens - though I can't say I was overjoyed at the prospect of voting LibDem.
Still, I guess that makes me slightly less of a pariah on these boards ?

Fuck you Corbyn.


----------



## killer b (May 20, 2019)

gentlegreen said:


> I'm now informed that strategically in the SW I need to vote for the anti-science Greens - though I can't say I was overjoyed at the prospect of voting LibDem.
> Still, I guess that makes me slightly less of a pariah on these boards ?
> 
> Fuck you Corbyn.


I don't think anyone gives a shit tbf


----------



## gentlegreen (May 20, 2019)

killer b said:


> I don't think anyone gives a shit tbf


Well that's always good to know ... I'd be curious to know if you attack others as enthusiastically as you do me ...


----------



## Wilf (May 20, 2019)

TBH, if we end up with brexit and the liberals coming top I'll be in equal measure, depressed, amused and bored.


----------



## killer b (May 20, 2019)

gentlegreen said:


> Well that's always good to know ... I'd be curious to know if you attack others as enthusiastically as you do me ...


It was more an expression of indifference than an attack, but whatever.


----------



## gentlegreen (May 20, 2019)

Anyway, if nothing else, this morning it gave me an opportunity to have a barny with a "scientist" on Facebook over Monsanto-mania   - Claims to have *two* MScs in Biochemistry - which probably explains why he didn't seem to know what a peer-reviewed paper was ...

MISTER Wolowitz ....


----------



## chilango (May 20, 2019)

chilango said:


> After I had s personalized mail shot from the Brexit Party my wife has had one from the Lib Dems
> 
> I'm not sure who's come off looking worse!



Now I've had a personalized one from UKIP confidently addressing my betrayed vote for leave....

....hmmm.

I'm torn between voting for the Squeegees or drawing a tiny limp cock in the Labour box for the imaginary entertainment of them arguing that it counts rather than is spoilt.

*Sighs*


----------



## campanula (May 20, 2019)

I had some racist filth dropping through the letterbox from some outfit calling themselves English Democrats. I would have set the collie on them if I had caught them besmirching my hall with  malicious shite..


----------



## brogdale (May 20, 2019)

UK turn-out figures for the Euro elections have been remarkably consistent over the last 4 decades:



Do we think this Thursday could see an up-tick in that pattern?


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 20, 2019)

brogdale said:


> UK turn-out figures for the Euro elections have been remarkably consistent over the last 4 decades:
> 
> View attachment 171612
> 
> Do we think this Thursday could see an up-tick in that pattern?



I've been thinking about turnout. Feels like people who are passionately leave or remain will definitely turnout, I'd assume - or at least I think they will, passionate leavers have the Brexit party to vote for and presumably passionate remainers will be passionate about voting in European elections. But will anyone else really bother?


----------



## tim (May 20, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> I've been thinking about turnout. Feels like people who are passionately leave or remain will definitely turnout, I'd assume - or at least I think they will, passionate leavers have the Brexit party to vote for and presumably passionate remainers will be passionate about voting in European elections. But will anyone else really bother?



Devotees of the Spunking Cock.


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 20, 2019)

another communication today 'vote limp dem to stop brexit' or something like that

meh


----------



## chilango (May 20, 2019)

I like the "if voting changed anything you wouldn't be voting on Thursday" line


----------



## moochedit (May 20, 2019)

I've had brexit party, ukip and labour leaflets now.


----------



## Indeliblelink (May 20, 2019)

For those thinking of voting lib dems


----------



## brogdale (May 20, 2019)

Indeliblelink said:


> For those thinking of voting lib dems



Coalition unity not terminated...seems


----------



## brogdale (May 20, 2019)

bunch of


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 20, 2019)

Lord Heseltine has had the Tory whip removed from his arse, after endorsing the Lib Dems!

Heseltine loses Tory whip over Brexit vote


----------



## Artaxerxes (May 20, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Coalition unity not terminated...seems



Snorting blow on the taxpayers time and expense brings parties together.


----------



## stavros (May 20, 2019)

Indeliblelink said:


> For those thinking of voting lib dems




Alexander and Clegg are laughing at Gideon's moobs. What a pair of tits.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 20, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> Lord Heseltine has had the Tory whip removed from his arse, after endorsing the Lib Dems!
> 
> Heseltine loses Tory whip over Brexit vote


TBH he should be expelled. You can't call for a vote of another party and expect nothing to happen.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 20, 2019)

All received today, leaflets from Brexit Party, the English ‘Democrats’ and UKIP. Never has my letterbox seen such nationalist scummery in the same day.

Thank you Brexit. Good call


----------



## Dogsauce (May 20, 2019)

Had a pile of Lib Dem anti-Corbyn leaflets and a solitary UKIP one through the communal letterbox for the flats I live in today. Somehow found their way to the recycling bin unread, such a shame.

People I know living near me sharing remainvote stuff on Facebook telling people to vote green in the south west. Was considering green because it’s the sort of stuff that does need addressing transnationally, but this put me off. Not going to vote based on Brexit issues.

Can see the Lib Dems forming a rainbow coalition with Brexit party after the next general, in order to ‘soften’ Farage’s plans, then selling out their voters again. Fool me twice and all that.


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 20, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> Can see the Lib Dems forming a rainbow coalition with Brexit party after the next general, in order to ‘soften’ Farage’s plans, then selling out their voters again. Fool me twice and all that.



this the same lib dems who have joined the ukippers to prop a tory minority administration on bolton council?


----------



## Buddy Bradley (May 21, 2019)

We've not even had any voting forms through the door yet.


----------



## spitfire (May 21, 2019)

Got this one today, East London. We've also had UKIP, BP, Lab, Green and LD.

'We can make a stand': the Extinction Rebellion activist hoping to be an MEP


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 21, 2019)

Labour is normally the main party in Wales, but according to YouGov they are now in third place, and the Tories are in sixth place. 

Brexit - 36%
Plaid - 19%
Labour - 15%
LibDem - 10%
Green - 8%
Tories - 7% 
UKIP - 2% 
Chuckle UK - 2%  

That would give 2 seats to BP, and 1 each to PC & Lab.

Brexit party taking Wales by storm as Labour support HALVES - poll


----------



## The39thStep (May 21, 2019)

spitfire said:


> Got this one today, East London. We've also had UKIP, BP, Lab, Green and LD.
> 
> 'We can make a stand': the Extinction Rebellion activist hoping to be an MEP
> 
> ...



That'll be the Daze
Those were the Daze


----------



## brogdale (May 21, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> I've been thinking about turnout. Feels like people who are passionately leave or remain will definitely turnout, I'd assume - or at least I think they will, passionate leavers have the Brexit party to vote for and presumably passionate remainers will be passionate about voting in European elections. But will anyone else really bother?


Today's ComRes reckons so..


----------



## Dogsauce (May 21, 2019)

Leavers will come out as they’ll be motivated by recent stalling of the exit process. There’s some momentum with remain campaigners too but unfortunately those heading the campaign are pretty unpalatable to reasonable human beings, so don’t think they’ll do as well. Leave will claim the mandate.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 21, 2019)

The worst is going to have to wait until Monday morning for the full results.

Bloody Europeans coming over here & delaying our election counts.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 21, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Today's ComRes reckons so..
> 
> View attachment 171680



FUCK. I knew I should have bet on the Brexit Party to get 40%+ at 8/1. I went for 35-40% at 4/1. Now BOTH are 9/4.

Hopefully the Remaniacs will be out in force to balance it out.


----------



## Wilf (May 21, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> Leavers will come out as they’ll be motivated by recent stalling of the exit process. There’s some momentum with remain campaigners too but unfortunately those heading the campaign are pretty unpalatable to reasonable human beings, so don’t think they’ll do as well. Leave will claim the mandate.


Yep, come Monday morning Farage will be doiong open top buses, tv studios and the rest claiming a thunderous victory with his, say, 35%. However given the ambiguity of Labour towards brexit (and the Tories to a lesser extent) it will be difficult to allocate their votes with regard to remain or leave. But a win is a win and Farage, along with Raab, Johnson and the like will be making the headlines next week.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 21, 2019)

Wilf said:


> 35%



You had BETTER be right about that Wilf


----------



## brogdale (May 21, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> FUCK. I knew I should have bet on the Brexit Party to get 40%+ at 8/1. I went for 35-40% at 4/1. Now BOTH are 9/4.
> 
> Hopefully the Remaniacs will be out in force to balance it out.



My 2 penny-worth = 32% for Farage


----------



## Wilf (May 21, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> You had BETTER be right about that Wilf


I was going to vote for falange of course, but will be happy not to if it makes you a few quid.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 21, 2019)

brogdale said:


> My 2 penny-worth = 32% for Farage



That's no good either! 




Wilf said:


> I was going to vote for falange of course, but will be happy not to if it makes you a few quid.



Hmmmm. Await instructions!


----------



## Wilf (May 21, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> That's no good either!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"Hardened cabal of Trotskyists Baby Eating Anarchists Pinkos collude with Brexit Party to defraud entirely ethical bookmakers"


----------



## killer b (May 21, 2019)

My main hope for the EU elections is that spacklefrog loses his stake at the bookies. Dont mind whether it's too high or too low.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 21, 2019)

killer b said:


> My main hope for the EU elections is that spacklefrog loses his stake at the bookies. Dont mind whether it's too high or too low.



You're a very bitter man. It's not like I don't share tips, you could have got in on this!


----------



## cybershot (May 22, 2019)

Sorry if already posted, DYOR obviously because if everyone pays attention to this then the so called guaranteed seats go out the window! 

How to 'tactical vote'

https://remainvoter.com


----------



## Teaboy (May 22, 2019)

cybershot said:


> Sorry if already posted, DYOR obviously because if everyone pays attention to this then the so called guaranteed seats go out the window!
> 
> How to 'tactical vote'
> 
> https://remainvoter.com



So apparently I should vote for the Chuckies.  Maybe not I think.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 22, 2019)

YouGov are using big samples for their polls, but coming up with some very strange figures, Brexit now on a whopping 37% & a lead of 18% over the LibDems, with Labour dropping to 13% & the Tories 7%, surely this can't be right? 

I guess we will find out next Monday. 



2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia


----------



## Argonia (May 22, 2019)

Why do we have to wait till Monday to get the results?


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 22, 2019)

Argonia said:


> Why do we have to wait till Monday to get the results?



Counts are only started once the polling stations right across the EU are closed, UK results will start being released Sunday night, but full results will not be known until sometime on Monday.

ETA - Argonia -



> In 2014 the election was held on Thursday 22 May, coinciding with the local elections in England and Northern Ireland, and most results were announced on Sunday night with the exception of Scotland, which did not declare until the following day.



https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/e...lts-2019-when-announced-date-eu-vote-uk-meps/


----------



## ItWillNeverWork (May 22, 2019)

Argonia said:


> Why do we have to wait till Monday to get the results?



Because Fridays are the day when the entire EU machine is focussed on meeting it's weekly banana straightening quota, Saturdays is when they pack up the offices of the entire civil services to relocate them 30 metres down the road, and Sundays is when they lounge around smoking cigars made of £50 notes, planning the next office orgy whilst figuring out what to do about the problem of declining Eurovision viewing figures.

Some time around 11:55 in Sunday evening they will finally log onto their EU super computer to randomly generate the election results.


----------



## Wilf (May 22, 2019)

At least we won't be seeing any annoying footage of people sprinting the ballot boxes into the count in Sunderland. Gets my goat that does.


----------



## Wilf (May 22, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> YouGov are using big samples for their polls, but coming up with some very strange figures, Brexit now on a whopping 37% & a lead of 18% over the LibDems, with Labour dropping to 13% & the Tories 7%, surely this can't be right?
> 
> I guess we will find out next Monday.
> 
> ...


It would be quite something if the combined lab and con vote only just beat the lib vote. Like you I'm not too sure about that, though turnout/who turnsout will be key.


----------



## Wilf (May 22, 2019)

Certainly lab and con have done just about fuck all to drag back the vote in their direction in the last couple of days.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 22, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> YouGov are using big samples for their polls, but coming up with some very strange figures, Brexit now on a whopping 37% & a lead of 18% over the LibDems, with Labour dropping to 13% & the Tories 7%, surely this can't be right?
> 
> I guess we will find out next Monday.
> 
> ...



I going out on a limb here, but that looks to me like a country divided.


----------



## killer b (May 22, 2019)

The spread across the polling companies is ridiculous. Someone has totally fucked this one up, and I hope it's yougov.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 22, 2019)

The Tories don't seem to be trying, has anyone actually had an election address from them?

I've only had the ones delivered by the Royal Mail for free* from the Brexit Party, Labour, Green & today UKIP, plus a separate hand delivered one from the Greens.

* Only the BP & UKIP went to the trouble of personally addressing them.

Nothing from the LibDems, Chuckle UK or the Tories. 

Less surprising nothing from the Socialist Party of Great Britain, UK European Union Party or any of the three independents standing in the SE region.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 22, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> I going out on a limb here, but that looks to me like a country divided.







killer b said:


> The spread across the polling companies is ridiculous. Someone has totally fucked this one up, and I hope it's yougov.



SpackleFrog is going to be very happy if yougov has it right, their bet is on Brexit getting between 35-40%, I wish I had put a bet on now.


----------



## killer b (May 22, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> SpackleFrog is going to be very happy if yougov has it right, their bet is on Brexit getting between 35-40%, I wish I had put a bet on now.


this is mainly why I want them to be wrong tbf.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 22, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> SpackleFrog is going to be very happy if yougov has it right, their bet is on Brexit getting between 35-40%, I wish I had put a bet on now.



I mean, I won't be happy about the result but I'll be happy about being both right and richer.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 22, 2019)

killer b said:


> this is mainly why I want them to be wrong tbf.



It's a sad little world you live in comrade x


----------



## killer b (May 22, 2019)

Can't have you being right after so long being wrong. it wouldn't do.


----------



## chilango (May 22, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> The Tories don't seem to be trying, has anyone actually had an election address from them?
> 
> I've only had the ones delivered by the Royal Mail for free* from the Brexit Party, Labour, Green & today UKIP, plus a separate hand delivered one from the Greens.
> 
> ...



Nevermind no leaflet, the Squeegees don't even mention it on their own website


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 22, 2019)

killer b said:


> Can't have you being right after so long being wrong. it wouldn't do.



Sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong, that's the fun of predictions - try it sometime!


----------



## killer b (May 22, 2019)

I'm going to say brexit 30-35, labour 20-25, lib dems 15-20, tories 10-15, greens 10. SNP will clean up in Scotland, PC will do ok in wales. Everyone else will get nowhere.


----------



## MickiQ (May 22, 2019)

So far, we've had leaflets from Brexit, UKIP, LibDems and Labour, all of them frankly pathetic in quality. The regular flyers we get off Dominos are of a much higher standard and more actual use.
My son has had a "personally" addressed letter from Cable (he wasn't even sure who Cable was) and last night we had an actual visit from 2 Kippers going door to door. I didn't actually speak to them myself, my daughter answered the door and sent them packing. They would have been wasting their time with her not only does she despise them and their ilk, she's only 17 and can't vote.


----------



## chilango (May 22, 2019)

We've also had some _soi dissant_ "hard Remainers" leafleting door to door and in town calling for a Green/LibDem/ChUK vote.

Check out the last three points in their flyer


----------



## gentlegreen (May 22, 2019)

Only Labour, LibDem and Green leaflets - no one else would bother around here.

A Green chap called the other day and probably thought he was onto something because of the EU flag in the window and an uncommitted call to "VOTE" - I also have a fairly unique garden.
I spotted him on the CCTV, but I'm essentially bed-bound at the moment.

In retrospect I was glad not to answer the door because I'd just been searching Molly Scott-Cato's expressed stance on GM and glyphosate - and along with her ignorant glee, one of the first hits featured her meeting with a Glastonbury councillor with #STOP5G in his post.
It's difficult to actually dislike the Greens, but I can't stomach their unscientific populist dog whistle baggage.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 22, 2019)

Another pile of Lib Dem leaflets in the communal hallway. Another swift trip to the recycling bin.


----------



## kenny g (May 22, 2019)

gentlegreen said:


> Only Labour, LibDem and Green leaflets - no one else would bother around here.
> 
> A Green chap called the other day and probably thought he was onto something because of the EU flag in the window and an uncommitted call to "VOTE" - I also have a fairly unique garden.
> I spotted him on the CCTV, but I'm essentially bed-bound at the moment.
> ...


Must agree. Love the idea but seem to generally be everything I cant stand.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 22, 2019)

Daft thing is most of the concerns of the green movement are backed by pretty solid science, but they spoil it all by indulging new-age gnomes that spout bollocks about homeopathy etc.


----------



## Artaxerxes (May 22, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> Daft thing is most of the concerns of the green movement are backed by pretty solid science, but they spoil it all by indulging new-age gnomes that spout bollocks about homeopathy etc.




Aye that's one of my barriers to em, I'm also pro-nuclear.


----------



## co-op (May 22, 2019)

Artaxerxes said:


> Aye that's one of my barriers to em, I'm also pro-nuclear.



Why would you be pro-nuclear?


----------



## Artaxerxes (May 22, 2019)

co-op said:


> Why would you be pro-nuclear?



Necessary evil, it's shit but we're not at the point renewables can be used for everything. 

It's that or coal and gas.


----------



## co-op (May 22, 2019)

Artaxerxes said:


> Necessary evil, it's shit but we're not at the point renewables can be used for everything.
> 
> It's that or coal and gas.



It's obviously OT but the problem is that nuclear isn't going to solve the climate problem. 

1. It takes too long to install (e.g. Olkiluoto in Finland, meant to help Finland meet its obligations under Kyoto which expired in 2010, still not generating a single thing and not going to do so for many years, Flamanville same story, same everywhere, always, the construction record is beyond awful). 

2. It's neither renewable nor zero-carbon, hence the weasely rebrand that it's "low carbon". That all depends on what you count and also on variables that change according to what other people do (eg the carbon cost of mining and milling uranium varies according to what global demand is since that affects what level of ore needs to be mined and milled - 0.02% richness just about makes a positive EROEI but needs a fuck load of carbon to dig it out and crush it and transport it). Clean gas is almost as low CO2 as nuclear but is far more versatile and quick to construct.

3. Nuclear energy is phenomenally expensive and cannot possibly power the global economy - see the recent strike price of £92.50 Mw/h granted to EDF for the White Elephant they are desperately trying to keep alive at Hinckley (wind farms coming in at under £60 now, everyone knows this will fall). We're going to be paying out for Hinckley for 35 inflation-indexed years. This is why not a single nuclear power station ever, anywhere in the world has ever been built by private money - it just ain't going to turn a profit, it can't. It's just about the most expensive way of making electricity that anyone's managed to come up with.

4. Construction of nuclear destroys the construction of renewables, partly by soaking up extraordinary resources (see 3 above) partly by taking over wholesale the baseload function (ie the steady background demand for power) that is best suited for renewables. You basically can't have both, you have to choose.

There has been a desperate scramble over the past 10 years to rebrand nuclear as "green"; it isn't. It's a fantastically wealthy bunch of shysters and wankers forming a powerful vested interest with an extraordinary history of success at getting its snout into the public trough for fuck all tangible benefit to anyone outside its guilded halls. Don't be suckered.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 22, 2019)

Nuclear is political - it’s energy security. You can stockpile a few years worth of fuel fairly easily. Not something you can do with gas. That’s what I presume the motivation is, alongside rewarding certain interests for the construction phase.


----------



## Steel Icarus (May 22, 2019)

Leaflets from Tories, Labour, Green, UKIP, Brexit Party and English Democrats


----------



## krink (May 22, 2019)

Fuck it, it's almost Thursday and the day I'm having I might not be here tomorrow so here's my vote for this election


----------



## brogdale (May 22, 2019)

krink said:


> Fuck it, it's almost Thursday and the day I'm having I might not be here tomorrow so here's my vote for this election View attachment 171818


Hope tomorrow's a better day.
btw...that's the fucking Sistine chapel of spoiling; seriously impressed.


----------



## bemused (May 22, 2019)

I'm voting Green, they seem a nice bunch and the others have exhausted my goodwill.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 22, 2019)

killer b said:


> I'm going to say brexit 30-35, labour 20-25, lib dems 15-20, tories 10-15, greens 10. SNP will clean up in Scotland, PC will do ok in wales. Everyone else will get nowhere.



That's not what you really think will happen you just don't want to be right!


----------



## killer b (May 22, 2019)

I think it's probably going to be somewhere in those ranges. What do you think I think?


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 22, 2019)

killer b said:


> I think it's probably going to be somewhere in those ranges. What do you think I think?



I think you think I'm right


----------



## Gerry1time (May 22, 2019)

gentlegreen said:


> In retrospect I was glad not to answer the door because I'd just been searching Molly Scott-Cato's expressed stance on GM and glyphosate - and along with her ignorant glee, one of the first hits featured her meeting with a Glastonbury councillor with #STOP5G in his post.
> It's difficult to actually dislike the Greens, but I can't stomach their unscientific populist dog whistle baggage.



Ironically I was carefully putting the recycling out earlier when a green canvasser came up our street. They said 'Are you a green party member then?' to which I instinctively replied 'No, sorry, we believe in science in this household'. Because we do. A massive shame really, I support so much of what they stand for, but they allow in too much of the batshit crazy fringe for me to be able to give my vote to them.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 23, 2019)

The number of people sharing that ‘remainvoter’ site on my Facebook is depressing. LibDems will always sell you out.


----------



## 8ball (May 23, 2019)

I figured I’d vote Labour because that’s probably what the Tories want least.

The other option, to my mind,
is voting Green...


----------



## Dogsauce (May 23, 2019)

& tactical voting is more or less pointless, the only way this election is going to be interpreted is based on the percentages each party receives nationally, seats won’t matter in how this is reported and the consequences thereof.


----------



## 8ball (May 23, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> & tactical voting is more or less pointless, the only way this election is going to be interpreted is based on the percentages each party receives nationally, seats won’t matter in how this is reported and the consequences thereof.



Your point being?


----------



## Dogsauce (May 23, 2019)

8ball said:


> Your point being?



The consequence of these elections is more about the narrative created from the result, and how that is used as leverage against the leaders or policies of the two ‘main’ parties. The result won’t be measured in number of seats won but in terms of percentage vote per party. So if you were one of those people wanting to send a signal in support of remain (and didn’t find Labour remainy enough) then it barely matters if you vote for LibDems/Green/Chuckles wherever you are as that percentage is all going to be lumped together as remain anyway when the results are discussed.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 23, 2019)

chilango said:


> Nevermind no leaflet, the Squeegees don't even mention it on their own website


----------



## Winot (May 23, 2019)

Why is there so much emphasis of leaflets here? Sign of U75 poster age? If they were ever relevant they no longer are (other than a secondary indication).


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> The consequence of these elections is more about the narrative created from the result, and how that is used as leverage against the leaders or policies of the two ‘main’ parties. The result won’t be measured in number of seats won but in terms of percentage vote per party. So if you were one of those people wanting to send a signal in support of remain (and didn’t find Labour remainy enough) then it barely matters if you vote for LibDems/Green/Chuckles wherever you are as that percentage is all going to be lumped together as remain anyway when the results are discussed.


The only percentage that anyone will be paying attention to is the margin of victory for the Brexit party. Remain supporters will try to add together the various remain parties' support to construct some pro-remain narrative, but the better they do, the higher the margin of victory for the Brexit, so they'll be drowned out whatever.


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

Winot said:


> Why is there so much emphasis of leaflets here? Sign of U75 poster age? If they were ever relevant they no longer are (other than a secondary indication).


Older voters vote, and they expect leaflets and interpret their delivery as an indication that the sending party ‘cares’ about them & their area etc.

Still relevant for them.


----------



## joustmaster (May 23, 2019)

15 to 20 leaflets a day in the communal hall way (three flats). 
A mix of different types. None read so I couldn't tell you who they were from. 
All straight in the bin.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

joustmaster said:


> 15 to 20 leaflets a day in the communal hall way (three flats).
> A mix of different types. None read so I couldn't tell you who they were from.
> All straight in the bin.


Recycling I hope


----------



## maomao (May 23, 2019)

I've passed the polling station three times this morning and I was the only person I saw voting so far. And I only voted because they''re in the church itself instead of the church hall this time and I wanted to have a gawp because I'd never seen inside before.


----------



## Monkeygrinder's Organ (May 23, 2019)

Quite a few people voting at ours this morning - hardly a massive rush but not totally dead either. Although that would be peak 'pop in on the way to work' time.

Enjoyed the pleasingly lengthy list of pointless Independents. Anyone know anything about any of them?


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

Monkeygrinder's Organ said:


> Quite a few people voting at ours this morning - hardly a massive rush but not totally dead either. Although that would be peak 'pop in on the way to work' time.
> 
> Enjoyed the pleasingly lengthy list of pointless Independents. Anyone know anything about any of them?


roger hallam is co-founder of extinction rebellion.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

Monkeygrinder's Organ said:


> pointless Independents. Anyone know anything about any of them?


they should have among their number richard osman and alexander armstrong for them to be genuinely pointless


----------



## skyscraper101 (May 23, 2019)

Guys, the most important thing we must all remember today is:

#dogsatpollingstations hashtag on Twitter


----------



## Sprocket. (May 23, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> roger hallam is co-founder of extinction rebellion.



What!


----------



## Miss-Shelf (May 23, 2019)

Monkeygrinder's Organ said:


> Quite a few people voting at ours this morning - hardly a massive rush but not totally dead either. Although that would be peak 'pop in on the way to work' time.
> 
> Enjoyed the pleasingly lengthy list of pointless Independents. Anyone know anything about any of them?


'We can make a stand': the Extinction Rebellion activist hoping to be an MEP
Daze Aghaji is one of the independent candidate from XR


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

Take yer pick...I reckon the ComRes looks a pretty good chance of coming closest FWIW.


Source.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

Sprocket. said:


> What!
> View attachment 171855


----------



## Ranbay (May 23, 2019)

Done...


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

it's an insane spread - something for everyone.


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

killer b said:


> it's an insane spread - something for everyone.


Yeah, but bin the YG 'outlier' and the spreads don't look *so* wild:
UKIP 2% - 4%
Lab 17% - 24%
Con 12% - 14%
Green 4% - 8%
LD 12% - 17%
Change 3% - 5%
Brexit 27% - 38%

Obviously struggling with Farage though.


----------



## Sprocket. (May 23, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


>



Of course that hippy, I’ve met him before!


----------



## Wilf (May 23, 2019)

At least, on the eve of the election, the tory party has got their act together.


----------



## teuchter (May 23, 2019)

A couple by region. Which is what people should be looking at if they want to do tactical voting.


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

teuchter said:


> A couple by region. Which is what people should be looking at if they want to do tactical voting.
> 
> View attachment 171856
> 
> View attachment 171857


"tactical" voting?


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

brogdale said:


> "tactical" voting?


it's teuchter, you have to expect this sort of thing


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> it's teuchter, you have to expect this sort of thing


Ah


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Ah


----------



## Wilf (May 23, 2019)

teuchter said:


> A couple by region. Which is what people should be looking at if they want to do tactical voting.
> 
> View attachment 171856
> 
> View attachment 171857


In mine, north east, tories on 5%, lagging behind greens and libs but tied with the mighty chunks.


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

regional crossbreaks have too small a sample to mean anything guys.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 23, 2019)

teuchter said:


> A couple by region. Which is what people should be looking at if they want to do tactical voting.
> 
> View attachment 171856
> 
> View attachment 171857



Blimey, in the south, Brexit 40%, LDs 22%, Greens 14%, both Lab & Con on just 8%.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 23, 2019)

killer b said:


> regional crossbreaks have too small a sample to mean anything guys.



Yeah, but it's fun!


----------



## teuchter (May 23, 2019)

brogdale said:


> "tactical" voting?



""tactical" voting?"


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 23, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Yeah, but bin the YG 'outlier' and the spreads don't look *so* wild:
> UKIP 2% - 4%
> Lab 17% - 24%
> Con 12% - 14%
> ...



Think turnout is a big issue as well. I've seen suggestions that it will be much higher than normal Euro elections. 

YG is an outlier, but it was an outlier in 2017 as well and the crucial point is they got the turnout right. Not saying that means anything this time but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 23, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> Yeah, but it's fun!



killer b hates fun!


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Think turnout is a big issue as well. I've seen suggestions that it will be much higher than normal Euro elections.
> 
> YG is an outlier, but it was an outlier in 2017 as well and the crucial point is they got the turnout right. Not saying that means anything this time but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.


Agreed, but locally I'm hearing that PV turnout looks consistent with an overall 40% turnout...so up, but not massively. I think there'll be many old tories sitting on their hands tbh.


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> YG is an outlier, but it was an outlier in 2017 as well and the crucial point is they got the turnout right. Not saying that means anything this time but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.


yougov's final (conventional) poll of 2017 predicted a Tory majority. Their MRP model was more or less right, but this is a conventional poll.


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

teuchter said:


> ""tactical" voting?"


go on...


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

brogdale said:


> go on...


this can't end well


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

mail


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 23, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> *Think turnout is a big issue as well.* I've seen suggestions that it will be much higher than normal Euro elections.
> 
> YG is an outlier, but it was an outlier in 2017 as well and the crucial point is they got the turnout right. Not saying that means anything this time but I wouldn't be surprised if it did.


Yep it's the hardest thing for pollsters to get right. They can only go on precedent, and this rather strange election doesn't have much of that.


----------



## Wilf (May 23, 2019)

Too late to make any real difference to today's vote, but withdrawing the bill again is pretty much a perfect gift to farage.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 23, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Agreed, but locally I'm hearing that PV turnout looks consistent with an overall 40% turnout...so up, but not massively. I think there'll be many old tories sitting on their hands tbh.


Old people vote, though, and all the polls I've seen show Farage getting a very big chunk of the old vote. This election is likely to make Britain look a lot more brexity than it actually is, I think.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

Wilf said:


> Too late to make any real difference to today's vote, but withdrawing the bill again is pretty much a perfect gift to farage.



I was giving interviews on my bus not cowering from the milkshake mob, insists Nigel Farage | Daily Mail Online


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Old people vote, though, and all the polls I've seen show Farage getting a very big chunk of the old vote. This election is likely to make Britain look a lot more brexity than it actually is, I think.


yeh right on a 54% turnout or thereabouts which i've seen mooted the top brexit party vote anticipated to be 40% -> c.21.6% of your actual electorate

really brexity that


----------



## chilango (May 23, 2019)

On my way to the polling station. Still torn between Labour Vs Squeegees Vs spoil.


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

A lot of the soft Labour vote in my orbit that I thought would maybe lean Green or Lib Dem today seem to be sticking with Labour. It's a very small sample size, but if that's replicated nationwide (  ) then Labour might not do too badly.


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Old people vote, though, and all the polls I've seen show Farage getting a very big chunk of the old vote. This election is likely to make Britain look a lot more brexity than it actually is, I think.


Agreed that the old tend to vote but, anecdotally, I'm hearing stories of regular tory oldsters just not voting this time. Maybe be inconsequential, but you know...


----------



## chilango (May 23, 2019)

Voted Labour in the end. Just to piss off the "you can't have a Marxist in No.10" brigade.

Shit reason. But there you go.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 23, 2019)

chilango said:


> Voted Labour in the end. Just to piss off the "you can't have a Marxist in No.10" brigade.
> 
> Shit reason. But there you go.


As good a reason as any. I considered voting for someone else but went Labour in the end, for about the same reason.


----------



## teuchter (May 23, 2019)

brogdale said:


> go on...


"go on..."


----------



## chilango (May 23, 2019)

chilango said:


> Voted Labour in the end. Just to piss off the "you can't have a Marxist in No.10" brigade.
> 
> Shit reason. But there you go.



...bonus reason. It'll piss off the Leavers and Remainers I know in equal numbers


----------



## chilango (May 23, 2019)

A few people kicking around the polling station. Similar numbers to usual. Only the Greens out ticking off their vote.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

chilango said:


> A few people kicking around the polling station. Similar numbers to usual. Only the Greens out ticking off their vote.


yeh there was a green outside our polling station too


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 23, 2019)

chilango said:


> ...bonus reason. It'll piss off the Leavers and Remainers I know in equal numbers


I had a semi-positive reason as well. If the tories are wiped out, I don't think it helps any if labour are also wiped out. Tories only ones wiped out would be so much worse for them.


----------



## chilango (May 23, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I had a semi-positive reason as well. If the tories are wiped out, I don't think it helps any if labour are also wiped out. Tories only ones wiped out would be so much worse for them.



Also. I don't want the fucking Lib Dems to finish any higher.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

chilango said:


> Also. I don't want the fucking Lib Dems to finish any higher.


i want the greens to finish above the limp dems


----------



## teuchter (May 23, 2019)

I think I'm going to vote lib dem to annoy as many people on U75 as possible.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)

teuchter said:


> I think I'm going to vote lib dem to annoy as many people on U75 as possible.


a desperate cry for attention ^


----------



## Teaboy (May 23, 2019)

teuchter said:


> I think I'm going to vote lib dem to annoy as many people on U75 as possible.



I think a vote for team chuckie would probably trump that.


----------



## SpookyFrank (May 23, 2019)

This fiasco makes me very glad I'm not registered to vote.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 23, 2019)

Teaboy said:


> I think a vote for team chuckie would probably trump that.



Surely a vote for the Faragists would trump the lot?


----------



## teuchter (May 23, 2019)

Teaboy said:


> I think a vote for team chuckie would probably trump that.



No, because they are not going anywhere. However, the lib dems could do quite well, which will annoy people here, and I'd like to feel a part of that.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 23, 2019)

chilango said:


> A few people kicking around the polling station. Similar numbers to usual. Only the Greens out ticking off their vote.



We normally only have a couple of Tories out counting the voters, they were a no show today.  

It was fairly busy, three voters coming out, as two of us went, and another three inside, that surprised me.


----------



## chilango (May 23, 2019)

Teaboy said:


> I think a vote for team chuckie would probably trump that.



I'd like them to do _just well enough_ to try and fight the next general election.


----------



## teuchter (May 23, 2019)

imposs1904 said:


> Surely a vote for the Faragists would trump the lot?


I don't think you've got the measure of U75.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 23, 2019)

teuchter said:


> I don't think you've got the measure of U75.



You certainly haven't.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 23, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> We normally only have a couple of Tories out counting the voters, they were a no show today.
> 
> It was fairly busy, three voters coming out, as two of us went, and another three inside, that surprised me.



Mine seemed busy. Certainly compared to locals.


----------



## QueenOfGoths (May 23, 2019)

No one outside the polling station here.

Mind you but many people inside either, 72 in the last 6 hours.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 23, 2019)

chilango said:


> Also. I don't want the fucking Lib Dems to finish any higher.


Yep, that as well. They're the only people I've seen out campaigning around here. Brexit party won't do well here but I suspect the libcunts will be looking to pick up labour votes.


----------



## Plumdaff (May 23, 2019)

A lot of Remain-y friends seem to be sharing that Remain Voter thing but when pushed say they wouldn't actually vote Lib Dem and they're going to vote Plaid, SNP, or Green. Is there such an electoral phenomenon as a shy Lib Dem voter?


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 23, 2019)

Plumdaff said:


> A lot of Remain-y friends seem to be sharing that Remain Voter thing but when pushed say they wouldn't actually vote Lib Dem and they're going to vote Plaid, SNP, or Green. Is there such an electoral phenomenon as a shy Lib Dem voter?



People who vote Lib Dem should certainly be fucking embarrassed about it.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 23, 2019)

Plumdaff said:


> A lot of Remain-y friends seem to be sharing that Remain Voter thing but when pushed say they wouldn't actually vote Lib Dem and they're going to vote Plaid, SNP, or Green. Is there such an electoral phenomenon as a shy Lib Dem voter?


Their campaigning in London has featured 'stop brexit' in very large letters with a tiny libcunt logo in the corner. You only realise it's them when you get up close. They're trying the scientology tactic...


----------



## imposs1904 (May 23, 2019)

teuchter said:


> I don't think you've got the measure of U75.



I'm taking that as a compliment. Thank you.


----------



## Badgers (May 23, 2019)

Was about ten people voting when I went in earlier. The people said turnout was 'as expected' and most people vote in the early evening.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 23, 2019)




----------



## teuchter (May 23, 2019)

I note that neither the lib dems' or greens' manifestos say anything about reforming the EU, but Change UK's does.

Maybe I'll vote for them after all.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 23, 2019)

teuchter said:


> I note that neither the lib dems' or greens' manifestos say anything about reforming the EU, but Change UK's does.
> 
> Maybe I'll vote for them after all.



And, Chuckle UK are also campaigning to stay in the UK, seems like the perfect home for your vote.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 23, 2019)

teuchter said:


> I note that neither the lib dems' or greens' manifestos say anything about reforming the EU, but Change UK's does.
> 
> Maybe I'll vote for them after all.



Of course you will.


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Take yer pick...I reckon the ComRes looks a pretty good chance of coming closest FWIW.
> 
> View attachment 171854
> Source.


Last one in, from IpsosMORI, looks closer to the YG "outlier"...have to wait for Sunday evening to see just how outlying they were (or not)?



Something of a triumph for the tories to avoid 6th place; if only those Changy scabs hadn't been so shit...


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

Opinium are pretty close to YouGov too fwiw


----------



## gosub (May 23, 2019)

Plumdaff said:


> A lot of Remain-y friends seem to be sharing that Remain Voter thing but when pushed say they wouldn't actually vote Lib Dem and they're going to vote Plaid, SNP, or Green. Is there such an electoral phenomenon as a shy Lib Dem voter?


So people who have spent the last 3 years demanding another refweedum because people were too stupid to understand the last one, don't grasp Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru that's a vote for Aldi, Green that's a vote for EFI


Mind you, I didn't think calling half the country racist in a effort to win their hearts and minds has been a pretty bright move


----------



## fishfinger (May 23, 2019)

Not many people in the polling station. Spoiled my paper - longest polling slip I've ever seen.


----------



## skyscraper101 (May 23, 2019)

fishfinger said:


> longest polling slip I've ever seen.



Hopefully you drew an appropriately long spunking cock?


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 23, 2019)

fishfinger said:


> Not many people in the polling station. Spoiled my paper - longest polling slip I've ever seen.



I was very puzzled by the Socialist Party of GB standing in the SE rather than London. Even more puzzled by three different 'independents' on the ballot paper, when no one has received any election address from them, and so had no idea they were even going to be on the ballot paper, let alone what they stand for. 

FFS the deposit required to stand in EU elections is £5000, these idiots must have money to burn.


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

fishfinger said:


> Not many people in the polling station. Spoiled my paper - longest polling slip I've ever seen.


Wonderfully concise report from the battlefield of democracy!


----------



## kebabking (May 23, 2019)

Just voted, rural Worcestershire, polling staff reckon that turnout feels lower than the Locals.

In the end I used a name I saw on the way to vote as my inspiration for the way I voted...


----------



## fishfinger (May 23, 2019)

skyscraper101 said:


> Hopefully you drew an appropriately long spunking cock?


Just wrote NONE and put a line through all the boxes.


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> FFS the deposit required to stand in EU elections is £5000, these idiots must have money to burn.


didn't the SPGB get some kind of bequest that can only be spent on elections or something?


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

fishfinger said:


> Just wrote NONE and put a line through all the boxes.


Very important to do *all of the boxes; *I've certainly heard of agents getting votes counted where all but their box were crossed.


----------



## fishfinger (May 23, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Very important to do *all of the boxes; *I've certainly heard of agents getting votes counted where all but their box were crossed.


I did all the boxes (equal disdain)


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

fishfinger said:


> I did all the boxes (equal disdain)


Good to hear; putting some effort into spoiling


----------



## imposs1904 (May 23, 2019)

killer b said:


> didn't the SPGB get some kind of bequest that can only be spent on elections or something?



Nope.

They wouldn't accept a strings attached donation like that. I think you're thinking of another minor political party.

*eta: I think it was TUSC who got the election bequest but that's only a rumour. (See what I did there?  )*


----------



## chilango (May 23, 2019)

imposs1904 said:


> Nope.
> 
> They wouldn't accept a strings attached donation like that. I think you're thinking of another minor political party.



I'm baffled as to why they stood and didn't even put anything on their website about it. Never mind do a mail shot.

Cost them my vote the daft sods.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 23, 2019)

killer b said:


> didn't the SPGB get some kind of bequest that can only be spent on elections or something?


Socialist Alliance. Described by the BBC as 'even smaller'.

Socialist party's capitalist windfall

BBC really excelling themselves in that article. 'Capitalist windfall' cos a building they bought in the 1950s is now worth a ton of money. It's still the same building ffs.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 23, 2019)

chilango said:


> I'm baffled as to why they stood anda didn't even put anything on their website about it. Never mind do a mail shot.
> 
> Cost them my vote the daft sods.



The absence of the material on their website is fucking ridiculous. I'll be happy to mention it to them. 

They did do a mailshot of a few hundred thousand leaflets - I don't have the exact figures to hand - but they targeted them on particular constituencies.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 23, 2019)

chilango said:


> I'm baffled as to why they stood and didn't even put anything on their website about it. Never mind do a mail shot.
> 
> Cost them my vote the daft sods.



Okay, I just had a rummage around the SPGB website. They distributed 315,000 leaflets/manifestos to selected constituencies via the free mailshot (Not that many in a Euro Election constituency) and also had 185,000 of the same leaflets mailed out as an insert in the South edition of the i newspaper.


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

imposs1904 said:


> Okay, I just had a rummage around the SPGB website. They distributed 315,000 leaflets/manifestos to selected constituencies via the free mailshot (Not that many in a Euro Election constituency) and also had 185,000 of the same leaflets mailed out as an insert in the South edition of the i newspaper.


Yeah, 315k is only about coverage of 7 Parliamentary constituencies.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 23, 2019)

imposs1904 said:


> Okay, I just had a rummage around the SPGB website. They distributed 315,000 leaflets/manifestos to selected constituencies via the free mailshot (Not that many in a Euro Election constituency) and also had 185,000 of the same leaflets mailed out as an insert in the South edition of the i newspaper.



The dumb fucks paid to have the leaflet inserted in the 'i', when they could have targeted another few constituencies, and have it delivered for free.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 23, 2019)

Shit, no one got my Fleetwood Mac joke . . .  or they were too polite to mention it.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 23, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> The dumb fucks paid to have the leaflet inserted in the 'i', when they could have targeted another few constituencies, and have it delivered for free.



I think the 'i' insert had already been booked before the election. They just happened to use the election leaflet cos  . . . well, cos of the election.


----------



## chilango (May 23, 2019)

Ah well. They can +1 to their final total in spirit then


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

brogdale said:


> West of the Medway, maybe; that bit's nothing to do with the real county.


DYSWIM about the West Saxon colonisers in the Western part of our free (Jutish) people's republic?


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 23, 2019)

I for one approve of polling stations in pubs, and a horse as transport home, after a dozen or so pints.


----------



## brogdale (May 23, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> I for one approve of polling stations in pubs, and a horse as transport home, after a dozen or so pints.


Fucking saxon


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 23, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Fucking saxon



And, piss-head.


----------



## Sprocket. (May 23, 2019)

imposs1904 said:


> Shit, no one got my Fleetwood Mac joke . . .  or they were too polite to mention it.



You can go your own way!


----------



## chilango (May 23, 2019)

Walking home earlier I spotted a scruffy man pushing leaflets through people's letterboxes. 

He didn't make it to my end of the road.

It's not a long road.

It's also 5pm on polling day.

LibDems eh?


----------



## gosub (May 23, 2019)

No room on v large ballot paper to draw an extra box for WTF, so went for a 144pt "Why?"

On way out worked out what I"d like to have done if I didn't have trip abroad coming up:  Pour a fucking milt shake in the ballot box.


----------



## xenon (May 23, 2019)

Why’s poll closed? I wants my democratic right.


----------



## Plumdaff (May 23, 2019)

Small queue (!) at quarter to five in my Cardiff Remain voting constituency. If Plaid really are going to do well in this they need to win around here, but don't high turnouts favour Labour usually?


----------



## Ax^ (May 23, 2019)

walked into my local polling station and it was dead ..

asked the guys staffing the station and asked "has it been dead for most of the day"

they asked if i'd been hanging around outside all day


----------



## teqniq (May 23, 2019)

EU citizens in UK complain of being denied right to vote


----------



## souljacker (May 23, 2019)

Just been and voted for the greens. Had a last minute veer to Labour but climate change is my number one worry at the moment so they got my vote. Brexit didn't come into it.


----------



## donkyboy (May 23, 2019)

voted animal welfare party


----------



## chilango (May 23, 2019)

chilango said:


> Walking home earlier I spotted a scruffy man pushing leaflets through people's letterboxes.
> 
> He didn't make it to my end of the road.
> 
> ...



I spotted him 10 minutes later having given up leafletting and wandering home (I presume) fag in hand, faded "exit brexit" sticker peeling off on his jumper.


----------



## Mr Retro (May 23, 2019)

For the first time ever I haven’t voted Labour. I was going to tactically vote Change UK but on the way up to the polling station I couldn’t get Anna Soubrys mug out of my head so voted  Green.


----------



## teuchter (May 23, 2019)

Mr Retro said:


> For the first time ever I haven’t voted Labour.



Anyone who votes labour in this election is basically as bad as those fence-sitting MPs in the house of parliament that they probably moan about.


----------



## weltweit (May 23, 2019)

I think the remain vote may be down. 

Was chatting to a remainer earlier who couldn't see the point in voting, we are going out anyhow was their view, no point to the vote.


----------



## mx wcfc (May 23, 2019)

The latest polls suggest that Brexit may get 34/35%.  UKIP say 4%.  That is a lot less than 50%.  That doesn't account for pro-Brexit tory or Labour loyalists, I know but the media are banging on about how Brexit is winning.  On those numbers there is not a pro-Brexit majority.


----------



## kenny g (May 23, 2019)

Amazingly long ballot paper. Just couldn't resist spoiling.


----------



## Steel Icarus (May 23, 2019)

Polling station bod said as I left "See you at the General Election", the presumptuous twat.


----------



## 8ball (May 23, 2019)

I was wibbling a bit over which way to vote.  Not sure whether I went the right way in the end, but the comforting thing is that it will make fuck all difference.


----------



## Ax^ (May 23, 2019)

mx wcfc said:


> The latest polls suggest that Brexit may get 34/35%.  UKIP say 4%.  That is a lot less than 50%.  That doesn't account for pro-Brexit tory or Labour loyalists, I know but the media are banging on about how Brexit is winning.  On those numbers there is not a pro-Brexit majority.



no where near as many leavers are voting this time compared to last time


know more than one person who first vote was a EU Ref..

but the same is said for the other side

still think the arseholes could come out on top after the EU ref result


----------



## 8ball (May 23, 2019)

S☼I said:


> Polling station bod said as I left "See you at the General Election", the presumptuous twat.



Thinking of moving house before then?


----------



## rutabowa (May 23, 2019)

mx wcfc said:


> The latest polls suggest that Brexit may get 34/35%.  UKIP say 4%.  That is a lot less than 50%.  That doesn't account for pro-Brexit tory or Labour loyalists, I know but the media are banging on about how Brexit is winning.  On those numbers there is not a pro-Brexit majority.


I'd say that a single-issue party getting 34% in an election, beating all the main parties, after only being formed a couple of months, could definitely be seen as "winning".


----------



## 8ball (May 23, 2019)

rutabowa said:


> I'd say that a single-issue party getting 34% in an election, beating all the main parties, after only being formed a couple of months, could definitely be seen as "winning".



Victory will be claimed regardless.


----------



## Ax^ (May 23, 2019)

still surprised at what the protest side of a Conservative party really get from voting for the Brexit party


aside from make the whole episode more farcical


----------



## ItWillNeverWork (May 23, 2019)

imposs1904 said:


> Shit, no one got my Fleetwood Mac joke . . .  or they were too polite to mention it.



Well whatever you do, Don't Stop.


----------



## StoneRoad (May 23, 2019)

Voted.

Poll clerks claimed turnout was about double that for the recent mayoral farce / election.


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

teuchter said:


> Anyone who votes labour in this election is basically as bad as those fence-sitting MPs in the house of parliament that they probably moan about.


I basically support the Labour position on brexit, so that's not a problem for me.


----------



## Orang Utan (May 23, 2019)

killer b said:


> I basically support the Labour position on brexit, so that's not a problem for me.


What is the Labour position on Brexit?


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 23, 2019)

seemed a bit busier than the local elections a few weeks back


----------



## DexterTCN (May 23, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> What is the Labour position on Brexit?


Ultimate clarity


----------



## Orang Utan (May 23, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> Ultimate clarity


That doesn't appear to be a credible source


----------



## chilango (May 23, 2019)

teuchter said:


> Anyone who votes labour in this election is basically as bad as those fence-sitting MPs in the house of parliament that they probably moan about.



Precisely why I voted Labour. Neither Remain nor Leave can claim my vote.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 23, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> That doesn't appear to be a credible source


That source has never been proven wrong on any article.


----------



## Orang Utan (May 23, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> That source has never been proven wrong on any article.


I doubt that very much. 
The person who writes it is a weapons grade arsehole with no credibility.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 23, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> I doubt that very much.
> The person who writes it is a weapons grade arsehole with no credibility.


I thought the same about your post.


----------



## SpookyFrank (May 23, 2019)

Housemate, EU citizen here since god was a boy, went to polling station and was told he couldn't vote. This seems to have happened up and down the country.


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> What is the Labour position on Brexit?


why are you asking me? you know what it is. The performance that Labour's brexit policy is unclear is one of the more tedious aspects of modern politics (and there's a lot of competition).


----------



## redsquirrel (May 23, 2019)

Well apart from the time the cunt accused Liverpool fans of responsibility for the deaths at Hillsborough, something he's now officially totally incorrect on - and still hasn't apologised for.

ETA: About the anti-working class, transphobic prick that is Wings Over Scotland


----------



## Orang Utan (May 23, 2019)

killer b said:


> why are you asking me? you know what it is. The performance that Labour's brexit policy is unclear is one of the more tedious aspects of modern politics (and there's a lot of competition).


Cos i really don't know


----------



## Dogsauce (May 23, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> What is the Labour position on Brexit?



How they’re playing it here:


----------



## Orang Utan (May 23, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> How they’re playing it here:
> 
> View attachment 171949


So they want another referendum?


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> Cos i really don't know


why not?


----------



## DexterTCN (May 23, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Well apart from the time the cunt accused Liverpool fans of responsibility for the deaths at Hillsborough, something he's now officially totally incorrect on - and still hasn't apologised for...


I thought he won that court case.  Got a link?


----------



## Doctor Carrot (May 23, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> How they’re playing it here:
> 
> View attachment 171949



That's the clearest I've ever seen their position laid out tbf.


----------



## Orang Utan (May 23, 2019)

killer b said:


> why not?


I haven't been paying attention. I can only stand to read the headlines and I've not read any leaflets. It's just too overwhelming to process.


----------



## 8115 (May 23, 2019)

SpookyFrank said:


> Housemate, EU citizen here since god was a boy, went to polling station and was told he couldn't vote. This seems to have happened up and down the country.


I've just seen it happen at my polling station. Apparently this time EU citizens had to fill out a special form to say they weren't going to vote in their home country. It seems like they weren't told they had to fill the form out or something? Why did they change the rules?

You don't have to fill out a special form if you're on the electoral register in two places if you have 2 homes or are a student or something


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> I haven't been paying attention. I can only stand to read the headlines and I've not read any leaflets. It's just too overwhelming to process.


upthread you said you voted green and 'blamed Labour' for making you do it. What were you blaming Labour for?


----------



## redsquirrel (May 23, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> I thought he won that court case.  Got a link?


Here and here, as if you didn't know you.



			
				Dexter's cunt mate said:
			
		

> I haven't seen the death certificates of the 96 victims of Hillsborough. But I'm going to make an assertion anyway, without fear of contradiction – not a single one of them lists the cause of death as "incompetence" or "inexperience". The vast majority died of asphyxiation, crushed to death by the weight of hundreds of bodies pressing them against unyielding steel fences or the concrete steps of the terracing.
> 
> Yet despite 23 years of investigations, reports and analysis, the most blindingly obvious fact is never spoken. The pressure that caused that crush didn't come out of nowhere. It wasn't an act of God, it wasn't a freak gravity storm. It came from behind them, and every ounce of it came from human beings. Specifically, it came from Liverpool fans.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 23, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Here as if you didn't know you.


A link to the trial judgement, fuckwit.

lol you quoted danny as proof


----------



## Orang Utan (May 23, 2019)

killer b said:


> upthread you said you voted green and 'blamed Labour' for making you do it. What were you blaming Labour for?


Being shit in opposition and mired in anti-semitism. I voted Green cos it was clear they were anti Brexit


----------



## DexterTCN (May 23, 2019)

In fact...let's not.  

But you made me laugh.


----------



## SpookyFrank (May 23, 2019)

8115 said:


> I've just seen it happen at my polling station. Apparently this time EU citizens had to fill out a special form to say they weren't going to vote in their home country. It seems like they weren't told they had to fill the form out or something? Why did they change the rules?
> 
> You don't have to fill out a special form if you're on the electoral register in two places if you have 2 homes or are a student or something



And apparently nobody told anyone about the special form. My mate just got sent a polling card as usual, with no mention of 'oh btw, you can't actually vote'.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 23, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> A link to the trial judgement, fuckwit.
> 
> lol you quoted danny as proof


What "trial judgement" would this be fuckwit? The one that was settled out of court?


----------



## DexterTCN (May 23, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> What "trial judgement" would this be fuckwit? The one that was settled out of court?


In whose favour, fuckwit?


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> Being shit in opposition and mired in anti-semitism. I voted Green cos it was clear they were anti Brexit


can't argue too much with the antisemitism thing, but being shit in opposition? I guess if you only read the headlines you might think that...


----------



## Orang Utan (May 23, 2019)

killer b said:


> can't argue too much with the antisemitism thing, but being shit in opposition? I guess if you only read the headlines you might think that...


The main thing for me is their failure to oppose the welfare reforms vehemently enough.
Politics is really hard to keep up with, esp Brexit negotiations. There's a lot of confusing detail that pretty much deters people like me from reading all about it. Probably why there's such a low turn out.
There was a stupid line in that Russell T Davies thing on the Beeb about politics becoming less boring but i think it's the opposite. It's become too complicated. You have to be very highly motivated to have any kind of handle on wtf is going on, what our politicians think and what they propose to do.


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> The main thing for me is their failure to oppose the welfare reforms vehemently enough.


When was this? In 2015, before Corbyn won the leadership election, partly on the back of being the only candidate who voted against the reforms?


----------



## agricola (May 23, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> In whose favour, fuckwit?



That case was brought because the paper (mistakenly) said he blamed the 96 for the deaths at Hillsborough - which he didn't.  

What he claimed was that other Liverpool fans were responsible, as redsquirrel correctly pointed out.  That is why he _didn't_ sue the Daily Record for saying that he blamed other Liverpool fans for the deaths, nor did he sue the Herald when they said that he blamed other Liverpool fans for the deaths.


----------



## Orang Utan (May 23, 2019)

killer b said:


> When was this? In 2015, before Corbyn won the leadership election, partly on the back of being the only candidate who voted against the reforms?


Was it that long ago? Fuck. That's four years!


----------



## kabbes (May 23, 2019)

I voted Socialist Party of Great Britain in the end.


----------



## Balbi (May 23, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> Was it that long ago? Fuck. That's four years!



And two general elections - the Labour failure to oppose was under Harriet Harman's brief caretaker leadership, when Chris Leslie (lol) was Shadow Chancellor and the party was convinced that Miliband had lost because he had gone too left wing and the electorate voting for Tories meant they had to not oppose their policies.

Just writing that sentence makes me laugh, the fucking twats.

Here's that Shadow Cabinet in full btw, and it's a haunting reminder of what would have happened if anyone but Corbyn had won in 2015 - Second Shadow Cabinet of Harriet Harman - Wikipedia


----------



## Orang Utan (May 23, 2019)

It's all too much to keep up with. No wonder the vote is split so much.
But what else is there to do. Not vote?


----------



## killer b (May 23, 2019)

It's too much too keep up with a change in leadership in a political party 4 years ago?


----------



## 8115 (May 23, 2019)

Actually I agree that something has changed in politics. I used to keep up with things but now I don't really know what's what. I think that maybe there used to be a lot more theatre and now that's gone it's harder to follow.

But to be honest, when it comes to choosing who to vote for I'm always pretty broad brush.


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 23, 2019)

on the ballot paper (SE England) the vermin were listed as 'conservative and unionist' party - do they usually do that?  (i must admit i don't usually take much notice of them anyway)


----------



## Orang Utan (May 23, 2019)

killer b said:


> It's too much too keep up with a change in leadership in a political party 4 years ago?


and everything since. it's been eventful. the only people i know who seem to know what's going on are those who spend hours reading about it every day. if you struggle to read past even the first paragraph of any news article, a lot will pass you by.


----------



## brogdale (May 24, 2019)

Puddy_Tat said:


> on the ballot paper (SE England) the vermin were listed as 'conservative and unionist' party - do they usually do that?  (i must admit i don't usually take much notice of them anyway)


That's the party's name, so yes...they do usually do that.


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 24, 2019)

brogdale said:


> That's the party's name, so yes...they do usually do that.



hmm.

searching images for general election ballot papers suggests otherwise







(image search on general election ballot paper - not my constituency or choice of candidate)

wonder if it's different because in theory at a general or council election, you're voting for an individual, but at the euros you're voting for a party?


----------



## brogdale (May 24, 2019)

Puddy_Tat said:


> hmm.
> 
> searching images for general election ballot papers suggests otherwise
> 
> ...


Not really; it's their party name.


----------



## killer b (May 24, 2019)

Iirc they've only started using the 'and unionist' bit in recent years, I think it's a May innovation.


----------



## killer b (May 24, 2019)

Oh no, Cameron did it in 2016.

Tories apply to become “Conservative and Unionist party” across Britain


----------



## Wilf (May 24, 2019)

killer b said:


> Iirc they've only started using the 'and unionist' bit in recent years, I think it's a May innovation.


… though it was their official title for much of the 20th Century. On ballot papers/nomination forms I _think_ candidates can vary the party name, providing they use no more than 6 words.

edit: there's some _fascinating_ stuff in here:
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0009/107694/to-names-rp.pdf


----------



## N_igma (May 24, 2019)

They started using it to cosy up to the DUP. It is the official name of the party.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 24, 2019)

brogdale said:


> DYSWIM about the West Saxon colonisers in the Western part of our free (Jutish) people's republic?
> 
> View attachment 171913



So, that's where Arya white horse got to. I was wondering why it was missing from the final episode.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 24, 2019)

8115 said:


> I've just seen it happen at my polling station. Apparently this time EU citizens had to fill out a special form to say they weren't going to vote in their home country. It seems like they weren't told they had to fill the form out or something? Why did they change the rules?



I've heard & read various reports about this happening, none have mentioned there has been any changes in the rules. They are blaming administrative errors by some local councils in respect of lack of communication, not getting the forms out in time and/or not processing returned ones in time, it seems like a cock-up because the election was called so late.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 24, 2019)

Just been reading that loads of Ex-pats also lost out of voting in the UK, because their postal ballots didn't arrive in time, or not at all. 

British expats FURIOUS as delayed postal votes DENY right to vote - 'Angry and upset'


----------



## friedaweed (May 24, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> Just been reading that loads of Ex-pats also lost out of voting in the UK, because their postal ballots didn't arrive in time, or not at all.
> 
> British expats FURIOUS as delayed postal votes DENY right to vote - 'Angry and upset'


dessiato are you 'Angry and Upset' chief?


----------



## friedaweed (May 24, 2019)

When do we get the results? Do we have to wait until Sunday?


----------



## Steel Icarus (May 24, 2019)

friedaweed said:


> When do we get the results? Do we have to wait until Sunday?


Yes, as it's a European-wide thing, we have to wait til everyone participating is done.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 24, 2019)

friedaweed said:


> When do we get the results? Do we have to wait until Sunday?



Yes, results start to be declared from 10 pm Sunday, full results on Monday, with the exception of NI, which IIRC correctly declares on Tuesday, because they use the single transferable vote system rather than the party list system, so loads of re-counts.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 24, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> Yes, results start to be declared from 10 pm Sunday, full results on Monday, with the exception of NI, which IIRC correctly declares on Tuesday, because they use the single transferable vote system rather than the party list system, so loads of re-counts.


You'd hope when they declare the results will be declared correctly everywhere


----------



## Mr Moose (May 24, 2019)

S☼I said:


> Yes, as it's a European-wide thing, we have to wait til everyone participating is done.



It’s the EU innit? Telling us what to do.


----------



## friedaweed (May 24, 2019)

S☼I said:


> Yes, as it's a European-wide thing, we have to wait til everyone participating is done.


Why cant they all vote on Thursday night?


----------



## dessiato (May 24, 2019)

friedaweed said:


> dessiato are you 'Angry and Upset' chief?


Not in that article, but I'm pissed off about being disenfranchised.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 24, 2019)

friedaweed said:


> Why cant they all vote on Thursday night?



Most vote on Sunday, only 6 or 7 countries vote earlier. 

There's a list of expected result times via link below, London around 2 am on Mon, Scotland not until 11 am - the Western Isles are lazy & don't start counting until Mon., and finally NI around 6 pm on Tue. 

European elections 2019: When will results be announced in the UK?


----------



## Mr Moose (May 24, 2019)

friedaweed said:


> Why cant they all vote on Thursday night?



We should leave or send a strong self-defeating message at least.


----------



## Supine (May 24, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> We should leave or send a strong self-defeating message at least.



Or bluster and do nothing until october


----------



## Plumdaff (May 24, 2019)

Cardiff turnout 41%, up 10% on 2014. So significantly up but still low compared to GEs.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 24, 2019)

Not like anyone’s going to be able to claim a mandate on such a low turnout, although it won’t stop them trying.


----------



## gentlegreen (May 24, 2019)

Perhaps they should introduce compulsory voting ...

There must be just a hardcore of enthusiasts on either side. Only 6 million could be arsed to sign the revoke petition ..


----------



## teuchter (May 24, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> How they’re playing it here:
> 
> View attachment 171949



That's not entirely consistent with the official policy, which states a preference for Labour's Brexit Plan over a second vote:



> Labour has put forward an alternative plan to seek a close and cooperative relationship with the European Union, including a new comprehensive customs union with a UK say, close single market alignment, guaranteed rights and standards, and the protection of the Good Friday peace agreement in Northern Ireland.
> 
> We believe such a deal could bring our country back together and deliver on the result of the referendum. However, the Government has refused to listen and compromise. They have spent more of the last three years arguing among themselves than negotiating a good deal for the people of Britain.
> 
> Labour will continue to oppose the Government’s bad deal or a disastrous no deal. And if we can’t get agreement along the lines of our alternative plan, or a general election, Labour backs the option of a public vote.


----------



## killer b (May 24, 2019)

Interesting graph here showing turnout - it's mostly up, but much more up in remain-leaning areas, and actually down in some leave-leaning. Make of that what you will...


----------



## kabbes (May 24, 2019)

That trendline is appalling.  It demonstrates how a standard fit massively overemphasises both extremes of the graph.


----------



## killer b (May 24, 2019)

have I been fooled by a dotted line Kabbes?


----------



## brogdale (May 24, 2019)

killer b said:


> have I been fooled by a dotted line Kabbes?


Looks sound to me, and as more LAs verify it's likely to firm up.


----------



## chilango (May 24, 2019)

Met a friend for coffee who would normally vote Green or Labour but voted LibDem as the strongest Remain option


----------



## brogdale (May 24, 2019)

chilango said:


> Met a friend for coffee who would normally vote Green or Labour but voted LibDem as the strongest Remain option


Why the LP will have to pivot.


----------



## killer b (May 24, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Why the LP will have to pivot.


let's see the results first.

here's some more turnout figures fwiw. Pretty clear pattern I'd say.


----------



## kabbes (May 24, 2019)

killer b said:


> have I been fooled by a dotted line Kabbes?


There’s definitely a strong trend, I just dispute that it’s the one they’ve plotted.  If anything, I think that a trend more carefully calibrated would indicate an even stronger relationship than the one shown.  Cambridge is having an unduly strong influence on the plotted slope.

Check this out: Influential Points in Regression


----------



## brogdale (May 24, 2019)

killer b said:


> let's see the results first.
> 
> here's some more turnout figures fwiw. Pretty clear pattern I'd say.


Don't disagree, but I don't necessarily think we have to wait for the results to see that, faced with a No-Dealer leading the tories, if the LP art to claw back the primary opposition position they'll have to pivot to a position of clarity. Otherwise it'll be 20% each for LP & LD with Johnson+Farage mopping up the rest.


----------



## killer b (May 24, 2019)

People have been expecting a pivot from Labour for three years now: it hasn't come. If Labour do something like the mid 20s or more figures some polls were predicting, and Brexit don't do as well as predicted, then I'd say there'll be no pivot. If Labour come third then maybe. I dunno though. There's obviously a plan for the general election, and I don't think it's 'lets run the referendum again!'


----------



## xenon (May 24, 2019)

Anyways, voted Green as I usually have done in Euro elections.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (May 24, 2019)

Didn't get to vote because Stansted shut their runway so got diverted to Luton and didn't get home until 11:30.


----------



## brogdale (May 24, 2019)

killer b said:


> People have been expecting a pivot from Labour for three years now: it hasn't come. If Labour do something like the mid 20s or more figures some polls were predicting, and Brexit don't do as well as predicted, then I'd say there'll be no pivot. If Labour come third then maybe. I dunno though. There's obviously a plan for the general election, and I don't think it's 'lets run the referendum again!'


I doubt that 'let's run the referendum again' is the LP's favoured GE strategy, but their problem arises from the fact that their governing opponents have little option but that strategy. The only counter to continued tory wipeout will be a 'hard' Brexit position that shoots Farage's fox, and the LP will have to play that.

FWIW...my prediction of Sunday's European Election result for the UK (change on 2017 GE):


Brexit: 33% +33%
Lab: 19% -21%
LD: 16% +8%
Con: 12%  -30%
Green: 8% +6%
ChUK: 4% +4%
UKIP: 3% +1%
Oth: 4%


----------



## co-op (May 24, 2019)

killer b said:


> let's see the results first.
> 
> here's some more turnout figures fwiw. Pretty clear pattern I'd say.



Is that really a "pretty clear pattern"? It looks to me like the bottom end has correlation - i.e. "out" areas had normal/lower turnouts but at the top, 4 out of the top 10 higher turnouts were out areas and 9 out of the top 20 - that doesn't really look like a correlation to me?


----------



## Mr Moose (May 24, 2019)

It does begin to seem like far from delivering the Brexit Party’s coup, it’s just going to be as you were with the balance of Leave/Remain, if anything worse for Leave. 

Much bigger deal if they could win a by-election.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 24, 2019)

co-op said:


> Is that really a "pretty clear pattern"? It looks to me like the bottom end has correlation - i.e. "out" areas had normal/lower turnouts but at the top, 4 out of the top 10 higher turnouts were out areas and 9 out of the top 20 - that doesn't really look like a correlation to me?


The bottom 10 are all out, seven of them strongly out (counting strongly as <40%). Six of top ten are remain, and the other four are all only weakly out. In fact all the strongly out are in the bottom 20. Strong pattern, I'd say.


----------



## co-op (May 24, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> The bottom 10 are all out, seven of them strongly out (counting strongly as <40%). Six of top ten are remain, and the other four are all only weakly out. In fact all the strongly out are in the bottom 20. Strong pattern, I'd say.



As I said, I can see it at the bottom end but I can't really at the top. You talk about the out areas in the top 10/top 20 being "only weakly out" - but 3 out of the top 20 are only weakly remain. My point is that a couple of different results really changes the balance - ie it's not necessarily a correlation, it could just be background noise. No disrespect to you, but I was really asking someone who knows about stats to give an opinion, I can just look at it for myself.


----------



## The39thStep (May 24, 2019)

chilango said:


> Met a friend for coffee who would normally vote Green or Labour but voted LibDem as the strongest Remain option


Ditch them


----------



## The39thStep (May 24, 2019)

Buddy Bradley said:


> Didn't get to vote because Stansted shut their runway so got diverted to Luton and didn't get home until 11:30.


shouldnt you be on the train?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 24, 2019)

co-op said:


> As I said, I can see it at the bottom end but I can't really at the top. You talk about the out areas in the top 10/top 20 being "only weakly out" - but 3 out of the top 20 are only weakly remain. My point is that a couple of different results really changes the balance - ie it's not necessarily a correlation, it could just be background noise. No disrespect to you, but I was really asking someone who knows about stats to give an opinion, I can just look at it for myself.


Well I know a bit about stats.  I haven't done a formal analysis but I don't need to - my crude one is enough to see the pattern. There's a very strong pattern there - you're mistaken to think that the top and the bottom are somehow different things - they're not, they're parts of the same distribution (so when you say that the bottom is correlated but the top isn't, that doesn't make sense), and the pattern is pretty robust: the things I picked out are statistically significant.


----------



## co-op (May 24, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Well I know a bit about stats.  I haven't done a formal analysis but I don't need to - my crude one is enough to see the pattern. There's a very strong pattern there - you're mistaken to think that the top and the bottom are somehow different things - they're not, they're parts of the same distribution, and the pattern is pretty robust.



Can't you have a correlation at one end at not at the other? Does the line have to be straight?


----------



## co-op (May 24, 2019)

co-op said:


> Can't you have a correlation at one end at not at the other? Does the line have to be straight?



*Not trying to be arsey here, but 3/11 "remain" votes in the top 20 are basically 50:50.


----------



## killer b (May 24, 2019)

co-op said:


> As I said, I can see it at the bottom end but I can't really at the top. You talk about the out areas in the top 10/top 20 being "only weakly out" - but 3 out of the top 20 are only weakly remain. My point is that a couple of different results really changes the balance - ie it's not necessarily a correlation, it could just be background noise. No disrespect to you, but I was really asking someone who knows about stats to give an opinion, I can just look at it for myself.


93 councils have verified now:


----------



## co-op (May 24, 2019)

killer b said:


> 93 councils have verified now:




 Perfect timing! I surrender.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 24, 2019)

co-op said:


> *Not trying to be arsey here, but 3/11 "remain" votes in the top 20 are basically 50:50.


So what? We're looking for a pattern here. And there's a strong one. Continued by the larger set of results. So now we have 13 councils so far with a lower turnout, every single one less remain than average (average being 48), and most of them way below average. In the top 13, you have just two councils less than average, and then only a little less.


----------



## Plumdaff (May 24, 2019)

Interesting how many of those higher turnout places are the more remain areas of Wales. Be curious how well Plaid do.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 24, 2019)

Plumdaff said:


> Interesting how many of those higher turnout places are the more remain areas of Wales. Be curious how well Plaid do.


Yes indeed, although maybe not in Monmouthshire. I'm afraid those results probably mean good news for the LibDems as well.


----------



## kabbes (May 24, 2019)

co-op said:


> Can't you have a correlation at one end at not at the other? Does the line have to be straight?


You can certainly have correlation at one end only.  In the real world, this is probably the most common type of correlation.

This data is correlated across the whole distribution though.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 24, 2019)

Suspect the rise in Durham (the only leave one near the top) could be down to students being around for this election - the referendum was late June when many would have fucked off for the summer. Might also factor in some of the other areas reporting.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 24, 2019)

Plumdaff said:


> Interesting how many of those higher turnout places are the more remain areas of Wales. Be curious how well Plaid do.


They've been very active on social media.


----------



## ItWillNeverWork (May 24, 2019)

Have there been any exit polls?


----------



## brogdale (May 24, 2019)

ItWillNeverWork said:


> Have there been any exit polls?


No; not allowed for the 4 day Euro voting process. Apparently they worry that a Thursday exit poll from the Isles of Scilly might influence the Sunday voting on the island of Sicily.


----------



## ItWillNeverWork (May 24, 2019)

brogdale said:


> No; not allowed for the 4 day Euro voting process. Apparently they worry that a Thursday exit poll from the Isles of Scilly might influence the Sunday voting on the island of Sicily.



That's so scilly. 




Apologies.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 24, 2019)

My not entirely scientific prediction: LDs higher than Labour. Just a hunch.


----------



## co-op (May 24, 2019)

brogdale said:


> No; not allowed for the 4 day Euro voting process. Apparently they worry that a Thursday exit poll from the Isles of Scilly might influence the Sunday voting on the island of Sicily.




Although someone forgot to tell the Dutch because the Dutch exit polls were all over various news websites the day after. Surprise defeat for the conservatives apparently.


ETA they're still up https://www.politico.eu/article/timmermans-netherlands-european-election/


----------



## Badgers (May 24, 2019)

My local council


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 24, 2019)

ItWillNeverWork said:


> That's so scilly.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



and what about the channel islands?  or would raising that that be sarky?


----------



## Dogsauce (May 24, 2019)

co-op said:


> Although someone forgot to tell the Dutch because the Dutch exit polls were all over various news websites the day after. Surprise defeat for the conservatives apparently.
> 
> 
> ETA they're still up https://www.politico.eu/article/timmermans-netherlands-european-election/



Wilders lost three of four seats 

(Although they may have gone directly to a new eurosceptic party that picked up three)


----------



## rekil (May 24, 2019)

Ireland euros 1st prefs exit poll fwiw. Big gains for greens. A new low for Labour. I4C is Clare 'Victory to Assad' Daly and her illegalist drunken sidekick Wallace, litigious convicted tax dodger who owned 76 (!) properties at one point and is banned from operating companies but somehow still owns a chain of restaurants. 

FG-EPP: 29% (+7) 
FF-ALDE: 15% (-6) 
GREEN-G/EFA: 15% (+10) 
SF-LEFT: 13% (-7) 
I4C-LEFT: 7% (+7) 
LAB-S&D: 4% (-1) 
SD-S&D: 1% (+1) 
S-PBP-LEFT: 1% (-1) 

 +/- vs. 2014 election


----------



## ItWillNeverWork (May 25, 2019)

Puddy_Tat said:


> and what about the channel islands?  or would raising that that be sarky?



When it comes to Island-based punning, the Skye's the limit.


----------



## belboid (May 25, 2019)

ItWillNeverWork said:


> When it comes to Island-based punning, the Skye's the limit.


I’d Mull over one, but I’d probably over Eigg it


----------



## ItWillNeverWork (May 25, 2019)

belboid said:


> I’d Mull over one, but I’d probably over Eigg it



We'll keep going and eventually you'll come up with a Bute.


----------



## 2hats (May 25, 2019)

Isay somes rùm jokes inisheer.


----------



## belboid (May 25, 2019)

ItWillNeverWork said:


> We'll keep going and eventually you'll come up with a Bute.


I’ll Yell one out if I do.


----------



## ItWillNeverWork (May 25, 2019)

belboid said:


> I’ll Yell one out if I do.



No Foulness allowed though.


----------



## belboid (May 25, 2019)

Wyre we doing this?


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 25, 2019)

this thread is going to the dogs


----------



## Serge Forward (May 25, 2019)

That's Fair, Isle suggest another direction for this thread. How about the impact of Wight supremacy in the election?


----------



## belboid (May 25, 2019)

Serge Forward said:


> That's Fair, Isle suggest another direction for this thread. How about the impact of Wight supremacy in the election?


Typical Man.


----------



## hot air baboon (May 25, 2019)

trying to think of an island based witticism but coming up with Rockall atm


----------



## Poi E (May 25, 2019)

Good reef that's awful.


----------



## Steel Icarus (May 25, 2019)

Poi E said:


> Good reef that's awful.


No Ewe


----------



## gosub (May 25, 2019)

115,500 views   LOL


----------



## greenfield (May 25, 2019)

.


----------



## ItWillNeverWork (May 25, 2019)

gosub said:


> 115,500 views   LOL




They make me want to puke and I haven't even watched it.


----------



## Voley (May 26, 2019)

Do we start hearing results tonight then? Polls only shut at 10pm in some countries but we must have done the count over here by now.

Is that how it works even? I don't normally pay much attention to EU elections but I'm interested to see just how badly it's gone for the Tories with this one.


----------



## gosub (May 26, 2019)

Voley said:


> Do we start hearing results tonight then? Polls only shut at 10pm in some countries but we must have done the count over here by now.
> 
> Is that how it works even? I don't normally pay much attention to EU elections but I'm interested to see just how badly it's gone for the Tories with this one.


5pm BST


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 26, 2019)

Voley said:


> Do we start hearing results tonight then? Polls only shut at 10pm in some countries but we must have done the count over here by now.
> 
> Is that how it works even? I don't normally pay much attention to EU elections but I'm interested to see just how badly it's gone for the Tories with this one.





cupid_stunt said:


> Most vote on Sunday, only 6 or 7 countries vote earlier.
> 
> There's a list of expected result times via link below, London around 2 am on Mon, Scotland not until 11 am - the Western Isles are lazy & don't start counting until Mon., and finally NI around 6 pm on Tue.
> 
> European elections 2019: When will results be announced in the UK?


----------



## Voley (May 26, 2019)

I'll probably give it till midnight or so then. Should have an idea of how it's panned out by then.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 26, 2019)

Turnout 38% according to Torygraph


----------



## Pickman's model (May 26, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Turnout 38% according to Torygraph


Pisspoor after all the recent hullabaloo

Say 40% for BP, that's 15.2% of the electorate, hardly a ringing endorsement


----------



## imposs1904 (May 26, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Turnout 38% according to Torygraph



That's shockingly shit.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 26, 2019)

imposs1904 said:


> That's shockingly shit.



Why?


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 26, 2019)

I mean it's higher than normal. Sure its the biggest democratic process in the world but its also pointless/boring.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 26, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> Why?



Take into account I'm 4000 miles away, so I'm obviously not the best judge of these things but I just presumed that such a 'burning issue' of our day would have at least pushed the turnout over the 50% mark.

Damn you my twitter timeline. (Insert pic of older man shaking angry fist at cloud.)


----------



## Poi E (May 26, 2019)




----------



## cupid_stunt (May 26, 2019)

imposs1904 said:


> Take into account I'm 4000 miles away, so I'm obviously not the best judge of these things but I just presumed that such a 'burning issue' of our day would have at least pushed the turnout over the 50% mark.



That was never going to happen TBH, it's slightly up on last time, and IIRC it dropped below 30% one time.

The Euro elections have always been treated as a joke, because they are pointless, and resulted in low turnouts, not just here, but the average across the EU tends to be around only 40%.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 26, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> That was never going to happen TBH, it's slightly up on last time, and IIRC it dropped below 30% one time.
> 
> The Euro elections have always been treated as a joke, because they are pointless, and resulted in low turnouts, not just here, but the average across the EU tends to be around only 40%.



I understand all that, but you can't deny that for many people these Euro-Elections have a much more heightened importance. (On both sides of the divide.) Whoever 'wins', you know they are going to flog it for all its worth. That's why I'm surprised there hasn't been a higher turnout.


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 26, 2019)

i imagine a lot of people are utterly sick of brexit and of the main parties. Despite the passions it provokes in some - Its not a burning issue for many people - its just annoying shit they want to be over and done with.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 26, 2019)

imposs1904 said:


> Take into account I'm 4000 miles away, so I'm obviously not the best judge of these things but I just presumed that such a 'burning issue' of our day would have at least pushed the turnout over the 50% mark.
> 
> Damn you my twitter timeline. (Insert pic of older man shaking angry fist at cloud.)




To be fair Brexit is the burning issue. A lot of people either think we shouldn't be taking part in the elections because we voted to leave or want the UK to remain in the EU but don't have strong views on the European Parliament or who represents them in it.



imposs1904 said:


> I understand all that, but you can't deny that for many people these Euro-Elections have a much more heightened importance. (On both sides of the divide.) Whoever 'wins', you know they are going to flog it for all its worth. That's why I'm surprised there hasn't been a higher turnout.



Some people want to use the elections to either reaffirm or challenge the vote to leave. But they're not particularly interested in what happens in the European Parliament. And they're a minority clearly!


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 26, 2019)

any exit polls about to announced? we going to know anything anytime soon?


----------



## Mr Moose (May 26, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> Pisspoor after all the recent hullabaloo
> 
> Say 40% for BP, that's 15.2% of the electorate, hardly a ringing endorsement



But Claire Fox was so excited by her engagement with ordinary people, people who seemed to have forgotten about her once they turned the corner.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 26, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> any exit polls about to announced? we going to know anything anytime soon?



Nothing can be announced until after 10 pm tonight, not sure if an exit poll even happened in the UK, the lack of any reports of such a poll, would suggest one wasn't carried out.

* Note, both Holland & Ireland published exit polls, which seems in breach of EU rules, from what I've read, but I haven't been arsed to look into it in detail TBH.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 26, 2019)

imposs1904 said:


> Take into account I'm 4000 miles away, so I'm obviously not the best judge of these things but I just presumed that such a 'burning issue' of our day would have at least pushed the turnout over the 50% mark.


Perhaps it might be because it isn't a "burning issue" for most people?


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 26, 2019)

Uk results at 10pm apparently.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 26, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Perhaps it might be because it isn't a "burning issue" for most people?



I refer you back to my previous post where sometimes I place too much faith (?) in my twitter timeline.


----------



## moochedit (May 26, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> Note, both Holland & Ireland published exit polls, which seems in breach of EU rules, from what I've read, but I haven't been arsed to look into it in detail TBH.



I don't think the Dutch care if it's legal or not


----------



## Mr Moose (May 26, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Perhaps it might be because it isn't a "burning issue" for most people?



It is a bit of an issue for the Brexit Party, arguing as it is, that the very fabric of democracy is at stake. It merely demonstrates that ‘no deal’ is the fantasy of a noisy minority and nothing more.

It also doesn’t say much for those desperate to stay in the EU.


----------



## The39thStep (May 26, 2019)

Always dangerous to call but it looks like ( based on turnout and some reports from NW constituences) that SYL won't be going to Brussels .


----------



## gosub (May 26, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Perhaps it might be because it isn't a "burning issue" for most people?


Having been settled a couple of years ago.


----------



## Steel Icarus (May 26, 2019)

moochedit said:


> I don't think the Dutch care if it's legal or not


It's been decriminalised


----------



## The39thStep (May 26, 2019)

Denmark Social Democrats who switched to a harder line red immigration but have a fairly left economic policy  forecast  to do well and far right vote forecast  to plummet.


----------



## Steel Icarus (May 26, 2019)

I thought we'd killed the LibDems?


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 26, 2019)

greens doing well accross the board according to various exit polls. far right groups not as well as some feared. Lots of updates here - European elections 2019: major losses projected for centrist blocs – live

Think the greens will do well in UK as well.


----------



## kebabking (May 26, 2019)

S☼I said:


> I thought we'd killed the LibDems?



This is politics. Nothing stays dead forever.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 26, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> greens doing well accross the board according to various exit polls. *far right groups not as well as some feared.* Lots of updates here - European elections 2019: major losses projected for centrist blocs – live


I just said this on another thread. 





redsquirrel said:


> Anyway I can almost write tomorrows summary the papers now - far right didn't manage to breakthrough - conveniently ignoring the fact that the supposed "underperformance" is as much a fiction as the overhyped "breakthrough".


This repeated spin about the supposed underperformance of hard right parties (by the press, not you) is not merely silly, it's dangerous.


----------



## 8ball (May 26, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> greens doing well accross the board according to various exit polls. far right groups not as well as some feared. Lots of updates here - European elections 2019: major losses projected for centrist blocs – live
> 
> Think the greens will do well in UK as well.



There was a site with an analysis of the best prospect for keeping the Brexit party at bay in each constituency and it was recommending Green a lot of the time.  Not sure whether that might have helped them.

It's a pretty natural vote for the sizeable pro-EU contingent right now.


----------



## imposs1904 (May 26, 2019)

kebabking said:


> This is politics. Nothing stays dead forever.


----------



## gosub (May 26, 2019)

Anybody here vote for Manfred Weber?

Manfred Weber - Wikipedia


----------



## chilango (May 26, 2019)

Results coming in. Tories 5th in Leeds.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 26, 2019)

Wow, Tsipras calls an election after terrible showing in euro elections.


----------



## moochedit (May 26, 2019)

Looks like it's in line with the opinion polls so far.

edit: results here:

The UK’s European elections 2019 - BBC News


----------



## Plumdaff (May 26, 2019)

Looks like I was right about Plaid doing pretty well, coming second and handily beating Labour nationally. Drakesford will be very concerned about the Cardiff result, although it's not like Welsh Labour have been doing very much recently to encourage anyone to vote for them.


----------



## friedaweed (May 26, 2019)

The39thStep said:


> Denmark Social Democrats who switched to a harder line red immigration but have a fairly left economic policy  forecast  to do well and far right vote forecast  to plummet.


They we going Euro election mad when I was in Copenhagen last week. I've never seen so much active canvassing in a European city. There wasn't a single lamppost or bridge in Copenhagen or Roskilde that wasn't plastered with placards.  

Pernille Skipper was getting my vote in honour of twentythreedom , well that and she looked a lot more interesting than her counterparts


----------



## ruffneck23 (May 26, 2019)




----------



## Ranbay (May 26, 2019)

Fucking hell


----------



## chilango (May 26, 2019)

Tories 5th in the North East


----------



## weepiper (May 26, 2019)

Tories in 6th place in West Dunbartonshire


----------



## weepiper (May 26, 2019)

And this is a thumping result for the SNP in the Borders (traditionally the Toriest part of Scotland)


----------



## redsquirrel (May 26, 2019)

Idiot Thornberry taking the 2nd referendum line.


----------



## Proper Tidy (May 26, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Idiot Thornberry taking the 2nd referendum line.


Saw that - 2nd ref and remain. I suppose if you're a political wonk and just see the greens & libdems stacking up the votes it almost makes sense. If you take into account that you're trading a big chunk of your historical constituency for a transient temporary block, less so. Obviously.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 26, 2019)

Proper Tidy said:


> Saw that - 2nd ref and remain. I suppose if you're a political wonk and just see the greens & libdems stacking up the votes it almost makes sense. If you take into account that you're trading a big chunk of your historical constituency for a transient temporary block, less so. Obviously.


I think it shows how crap these people are. Whatever the political arguments there are for a 2nd referendum electorally Labour is just punching itself in its face.

EDIT: amazing exit polls for the League in Italy - 27-31%.


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 26, 2019)

Emily Thornberry sits in a BBC studio and sees the Front National top the poll - ‘the people against the politicians’ - and then calls for labour to come out as a full on remain party. 

Astonishing. She should be sacked tonight


----------



## DexterTCN (May 26, 2019)

weepiper said:


> And this is a thumping result for the SNP in the Borders (traditionally the Toriest part of Scotland)



The Borders


----------



## Plumdaff (May 26, 2019)

This is the Labour dilemma though isn't it, they are losing votes from Leave and Remain. Where Remainers get the idea that going full Remain would be a guaranteed GE winner I have no idea.

This is the first time Plaid have beaten Labour nationally in Wales, but interestingly they are not beating Labour in the seats they'd have to - Torfaen, Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent - in order to have a chance of winning the next Assembly election outright.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 26, 2019)

Well, electorally, that what it comes down to - seats not votes. Yes Lab will lose votes in constituencies like mine to the LDs, Greens, but so what they will still keep the seat. To form a (majority) government they need to take seats of Tories, often in areas where a majority voted for Leave. That means having a policy that Leave voters can accept even if they don't like.


----------



## Proper Tidy (May 26, 2019)

Plumdaff said:


> This is the Labour dilemma though isn't it, they are losing votes from Leave and Remain. Where Remainers get the idea that going full Remain would be a guaranteed GE winner I have no idea.
> 
> This is the first time Plaid have beaten Labour nationally in Wales, but interestingly they are not beating Labour in the seats they'd have to - Torfaen, Caerphilly, Blaenau Gwent - in order to have a chance of winning the next Assembly election outright.


Yeah, in euro elections on hiding to nothing with their position - but could retain votes of some of those switching in a GE, whereas going full remain would fuck them.

Re Plaid, reckon just breaking out of their ghetto to win votes and maybe longer term political synpathy from people who won't have considered them before will be a victory for them. Post Wood I don't fancy their chances in winning over key valley constituencies anyway


----------



## Balbi (May 26, 2019)

As Lansman's just said on Twitter, anyone claiming these results indicate anyone should adopt a hard Remain position already decided to say that before the count started.

Another referendum on these numbers would be bloody carnage, and for all their bullshit the Peoples Vote lot genuinely haven't a clue how to campaign to win a second referendum.


----------



## magneze (May 26, 2019)

The deaths of UKIP and CHUK mentioned on BBC News.


----------



## Plumdaff (May 26, 2019)

Proper Tidy said:


> Yeah, in euro elections on hiding to nothing with their position - but could retain votes of some of those switching in a GE, whereas going full remain would fuck them.
> 
> Re Plaid, reckon just breaking out of their ghetto to win votes and maybe longer term political synpathy from people who won't have considered them before will be a victory for them. Post Wood I don't fancy their chances in winning over key valley constituencies anyway




Handily beating Labour in Cardiff and Pembrokeshire and absolutely trouncing them in Ynys Mon is psychologically massive, I agree.


----------



## DotCommunist (May 26, 2019)

completely unsuprised to see peoples vote type fools claim these results mean labour should now go full remain. Monomaniacs


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 26, 2019)

Stillborn in the case of the chuckers.


----------



## Mr Retro (May 26, 2019)

Will Corbyn resign now his non-policy for these elections cost Labour so many votes?


----------



## DotCommunist (May 26, 2019)

Balbi said:


> for all their bullshit the Peoples Vote lot genuinely haven't a clue how to campaign to win a second referendum.


I get the impression they think winning is a foregone conclusin, just hold the PV and remain has to win, just like it had to win first time around...


----------



## DotCommunist (May 26, 2019)

Mr Retro said:


> Will Corbyn resign now his non-policy for these elections cost Labour so many votes?


no.


----------



## Balbi (May 26, 2019)

Mr Retro said:


> Will Corbyn resign now his non-policy for these elections cost Labour so many votes?



No, but the centrist fuckers are absolutely going to put another leadership challenge together - because fucking hell lol


----------



## Plumdaff (May 26, 2019)

Despite voting Remain in 2016, a major motivating factor for me for a second referendum is seeing some of these people's faces when Leave wins again.


----------



## planetgeli (May 26, 2019)

In spunking cock news a ballot paper filled out in Leicester with the word 'wank' against every candidate was filed as a valid vote for the Greens as 'not wank' had been written next to them.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 26, 2019)

Balbi said:


> As Lansman's just said on Twitter, anyone claiming these results indicate anyone should adopt a hard Remain position already decided to say that before the count started.
> 
> Another referendum on these numbers would be bloody carnage, and for all their bullshit the Peoples Vote lot genuinely haven't a clue how to campaign to win a second referendum.


Why? If you add brexit and ukip votes together, they're not that much up on last time, pre-referendum. And adding green to libdem looks likely to give a bigger number.


----------



## ruffneck23 (May 26, 2019)




----------



## agricola (May 26, 2019)

Mr Retro said:


> Will Corbyn resign now his non-policy for these elections cost Labour so many votes?



Why would he?  This is an election returning MEPs who will be out of a job in five months time.


----------



## Plumdaff (May 26, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Why? If you add brexit and ukip votes together, they're not that much up on last time, pre-referendum. And adding green to libdem looks likely to give a bigger number.



If a second referendum was a real goer, shouldn't we be seeing the vote going down?


----------



## DexterTCN (May 26, 2019)

ruffneck23 said:


>



Most of them have jumped to the brexit party.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 26, 2019)

Plumdaff said:


> If a second referendum was a real goer, shouldn't we be seeing the vote going down?


Not necessarily. In the last elections, most people weren't voting specifically for or against brexit (still the coalition govt - no referendum planned at that point). In this one, a lot of people were.


----------



## Patteran (May 26, 2019)

Mcr results - Labour 40,191, Lib Dems 21,041, Greens 19,966, Brexit Party 15,069 & Change UK 2,381 & Tommy Robinson 2,171.

ETA - link to Liverpool Echo source


----------



## Proper Tidy (May 26, 2019)

Plumdaff said:


> Handily beating Labour in Cardiff and Pembrokeshire and absolutely trouncing them in Ynys Mon is psychologically massive, I agree.


My other half (remain) voted plaid for first time, switching from labour. Her mum switched from Tory to plaid. Even a bit of that sticking for senedd would fuck labour, can't get a majority as it is. Would fear Plaid going into coalition with the filth under its new leadership though


----------



## toblerone3 (May 26, 2019)

DotCommunist said:


> I get the impression they think winning is a foregone conclusin, just hold the PV and remain has to win, just like it had to win first time around...



Its not a forgone conclusion but almost every single opinion poll since September 2017 has shown a majority for remain.


----------



## weepiper (May 26, 2019)

Edinburgh!


----------



## Plumdaff (May 26, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Not necessarily. In the last elections, most people weren't voting specifically for or against brexit (still the coalition govt - no referendum planned at that point). In this one, a lot of people were.



It's clear that despite the headlines, the plurality of votes cast in Wales were for pro Remain parties, which is a change from the referendum. It's not decisive on a low turn out though.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 26, 2019)

Plumdaff said:


> It's clear that despite the headlines, the plurality of votes cast in Wales were for pro Remain parties, which is a change from the referendum. It's not decisive on a low turn out though.


Totally agree that it's not decisive, but I don't see these results as indicating that a second ref would go leave again. If anything I see it as very soft evidence for a narrow remain, which is what most opinions polls suggest would happen.


----------



## Balbi (May 26, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Why? If you add brexit and ukip votes together, they're not that much up on last time, pre-referendum. And adding green to libdem looks likely to give a bigger number.



Because this isn't a Brexit referendum and it's dumb as fuck to assume that within Labour, Tories etc there aren't still Leavers who would still vote Leave given the choice to - combined with the knowledge that the Remain campaign are a bunch of squabbling twats who haven't yet worked out a strategy to win a secon referendum beyond 'people will see the mistake they made'.


----------



## Proper Tidy (May 26, 2019)

The opinion polls also showed a narrow remain win in 2016. Most people haven't shifted. A narrow win for remain in a new ref wouldn't really resolve anything anyway


----------



## Plumdaff (May 26, 2019)

Proper Tidy said:


> My other half (remain) voted plaid for first time, switching from labour. Her mum switched from Tory to plaid. Even a bit of that sticking for senedd would fuck labour, can't get a majority as it is. Would fear Plaid going into coalition with the filth under its new leadership though



Yep, Price's recent fond statements about May are troubling. My hope is that these results might light a fire of socialist indycurious radicalism under Drakesford, but let's be honest, that really isn't going to happen.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 26, 2019)

weepiper said:


> Edinburgh!
> 
> View attachment 172358


tick tock


----------



## Mr Retro (May 26, 2019)

agricola said:


> Why would he?  This is an election returning MEPs who will be out of a job in five months time.


Because his shitty policy in this election returned very poor results for the party he leads.


----------



## Plumdaff (May 26, 2019)

Alistair Campbell appears to think the country will unite around a pro Remain stance because he says so


----------



## Mr Moose (May 26, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Well, electorally, that what it comes down to - seats not votes. Yes Lab will lose votes in constituencies like mine to the LDs, Greens, but so what they will still keep the seat. To form a (majority) government they need to take seats of Tories, often in areas where a majority voted for Leave. That means having a policy that Leave voters can accept even if they don't like.



That’s predicated on Brexit still being unresolved by then. If we have left it’s a different ball game.

If the GE happens before then this might suggest that far from the Remain surge being manageable in the South, Corbyn himself could lose his seat.

It’s a genuine fix Labour is in.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 26, 2019)

Balbi said:


> Because this isn't a Brexit referendum and it's dumb as fuck to assume that within Labour, Tories etc there aren't still Leavers who would still vote Leave given the choice to - combined with the knowledge that the Remain campaign are a bunch of squabbling twats who haven't yet worked out a strategy to win a secon referendum beyond 'people will see the mistake they made'.


For most people who voted, it kind of was a brexit referendum. I know a few labour voters who switched green for that reason, I know many others have gone libdem for the same reason, and well the brexit party stands for nothing else. 

Given that, a slight increase in votes for explicitly brexit parties, plus more votes for explicitly remain parties, isn't evidence that a second ref wouldn't go remain. 

I'm not particularly advocating this, but I just don't see how these numbers indicate anything we didn't already know. If I were pro-brexit, these numbers would make me want to avoid a second ref.


----------



## Proper Tidy (May 26, 2019)

Mr Retro said:


> Because his shitty policy in this election returned very poor results for the party he leads.


As opposed to the other options which would defo have led to an increased vote share in all the regions


----------



## ruffneck23 (May 26, 2019)

.


----------



## Plumdaff (May 26, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> If the GE happens before then this might suggest that far from the Remain surge being manageable in the South, Corbyn himself could lose his seat.



Let's calm down shall we. There's no way on a GE turnout Islington North is going Lib Dem.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 26, 2019)

quick post, hope it's not been done


----------



## toblerone3 (May 26, 2019)

Proper Tidy said:


> The opinion polls also showed a narrow remain win in 2016. Most people haven't shifted. A narrow win for remain in a new ref wouldn't really resolve anything anyway



The narrow win for Leave in 2016 hasn't really resolved anything either.


----------



## Plumdaff (May 26, 2019)

toblerone3 said:


> The narrow win for Leave in 2016 hasn't really resolved anything either.



It's almost as if one of the major political parties ought to advocate a compromise position retaining much of the most important aspects of membership whilst respecting the referendum result?


----------



## DexterTCN (May 26, 2019)

Theresa May's place.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 26, 2019)

Plumdaff said:


> Let's calm down shall we. There's no way on a GE turnout Islington North is going Lib Dem.



Unlikely yes, but no way, ‘no way’.


----------



## Orang Utan (May 26, 2019)

chilango said:


> Results coming in. Tories 5th in Leeds.


Where did you see this? Someone else online is talking about this, but Leeds doesn't elect an MEP. I'm confused.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 26, 2019)




----------



## Balbi (May 26, 2019)

DotCommunist said:


> I get the impression they think winning is a foregone conclusin, just hold the PV and remain has to win, just like it had to win first time around...



Yeah, and the evidence is it'd come to down a 48/52 again after an even more toxic campaign than 2016 - and losing again but this time to No Deal? Wow ok.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 26, 2019)

Proper Tidy said:


> The opinion polls also showed a narrow remain win in 2016. Most people haven't shifted. A narrow win for remain in a new ref wouldn't really resolve anything anyway



Suspect there’s always been a majority for remain, but for most people it’s a fairly dispassionate position (I’ve previously described this as like voting in favour of your electricity supplier), whereas those wanting to leave were more fired up and passionate at the time of the referendum (with a background of the ‘refugee crisis’ and the associated media shit stirring) so came out in larger numbers. In a second ref it might be remain with the motivation to vote ‘against’ something and stop Brexit, although leave will be as fired up as last time to prevent their victory being stolen. Would be messy anyway.


----------



## weepiper (May 26, 2019)




----------



## Proper Tidy (May 26, 2019)

toblerone3 said:


> The narrow win for Leave in 2016 hasn't really resolved anything either.


A campaign for a new referendum stamping on your face, forever


----------



## DexterTCN (May 26, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> Where did you see this? Someone else online is talking about this, but Leeds doesn't elect an MEP. I'm confused.


Voter percentages.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 26, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> Theresa May's place.



That's a result that indicates the pickle the tories are in as they head towards the hard brexit sunset. Tory members may overwhelmingly want hard brexit, but tory voters don't, and the libdems could hoover them up in a general election. They won't lose Maidenhead - May's seat - but they could lose elsewhere.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 26, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> That's a result that indicates the pickle the tories are in as they head towards the hard brexit sunset...


yup...if they don't veer to the extreme right they're in trouble.


----------



## Balbi (May 26, 2019)

Well, that's it isn't it? They'll do a deal with Farage and clean up.


----------



## agricola (May 26, 2019)

Mr Retro said:


> Because his shitty policy in this election returned very poor results for the party he leads.



Yes, how dare he not put out his strongest XI in the County Reserve Invitational Cup.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 26, 2019)




----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 26, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> Where did you see this? Someone else online is talking about this, but Leeds doesn't elect an MEP. I'm confused.



Each council area is a 'local counting area' for this, so the numbers from each one (seems to be by local authority area, not by parliamentary constituency - the boundaries generally don't quite match) are being made public

But those numbers go towards the total for each region, and it's the regions that elect MEPs


----------



## Balbi (May 26, 2019)

No Deal vs Remain would probably be the question, right?


----------



## Proper Tidy (May 26, 2019)

Fucks sake


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 26, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> yup...if they don't veer to the extreme right they're in trouble.


If you look at that result from a tory heartland, you see big numbers switching to the 'centre' remain parties, with brexit just gaining a few. Those are tory voters overwhelmingly. The tories may have been preoccupied with losing votes to UKIP in the past, but they need to worry about votes going the other way now if they essentially become UKIP themselves.


----------



## belboid (May 26, 2019)

Orang Utan said:


> Where did you see this? Someone else online is talking about this, but Leeds doesn't elect an MEP. I'm confused.


The votes are counted by the local councils who declare them and pass them in to the regional lead council - which is leeds for y&h


----------



## DotCommunist (May 26, 2019)

Both Blair and Cable indicated last week that no deal being on the ballot for a potential 2nd reff was a Sensible policy favoured by Political Heavyweights such as themselves.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 26, 2019)

eff off!


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 26, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> eff off!



I was about to reply to that. 

tbh the fact that the bp is winning votes from labour in labour heartlands that voted leave isn't surprising. We're fucked basically. I don't see any non-destructive way out.


----------



## Rob Ray (May 26, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


>




Tommeh and Batten's Ukip (including king dipshit himself) facing total wipeout is probably going to be the only positive thing Farage will achieve across the whole long miserable trudge of petty jingoism he calls a career.


----------



## toblerone3 (May 26, 2019)

Proper Tidy said:


> A campaign for a new referendum stamping on your face, forever



I don't understand your post. What is happening forever?


----------



## DexterTCN (May 26, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I was about to reply to that.
> 
> tbh the fact that the bp is winning votes from labour in labour heartlands that voted leave isn't surprising. We're fucked basically. I don't see any non-destructive way out.


sorry it was a multiple failed edit


----------



## skyscraper101 (May 26, 2019)




----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 26, 2019)

Orban wins big in Hungary.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 26, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Orban wins big in Hungary.


That's how Scotland sees England.


----------



## toblerone3 (May 27, 2019)

Plumdaff said:


> It's almost as if one of the major political parties ought to advocate a compromise position retaining much of the most important aspects of membership whilst respecting the referendum result?



They tried that and it failed.  There really is no way out of this apart from more referendums.


----------



## brogdale (May 27, 2019)

Sutton (my Borough):

LD	  : 32.8%
Brexit : 30.4%
Lab	 : 9.8%
Tory	: 8.5%
Green : 8.2%
UKIP   : 3.2%
Others: 7.1%


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 27, 2019)

toblerone3 said:


> They tried that and it failed.  There really is no way out of this apart from more referendums.


We'll see. Something like the Common Market 2 proposal could have been a way out of this. That's still true.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 27, 2019)

Did Rees-Mogg's sister win a seat?


----------



## skyscraper101 (May 27, 2019)

Yes


----------



## Don Troooomp (May 27, 2019)

toblerone3 said:


> They tried that and it failed.  There really is no way out of this apart from more referendums.



Much as I hate to say this, I think there was a referendum, and the result was disappointing.
I think it was a foregone conclusion May had fucked the Tories, but the large Brexit party vote is exceptionally bad news, and is effectively a second referendum as they only have one policy.
This is a bad day.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 27, 2019)

skyscraper101 said:


> Yes


um

jesus fucking effing christing effing fuck


----------



## imposs1904 (May 27, 2019)

Any of the RCPers on the gravy train?


----------



## DexterTCN (May 27, 2019)




----------



## belboid (May 27, 2019)

3505 for the SPGB!


----------



## belboid (May 27, 2019)

imposs1904 said:


> Any of the RCPers on the gravy train?


Not yet, but there will be.


----------



## MickiQ (May 27, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> Did Rees-Mogg's sister win a seat?


She's East Midlands (my area) we had 2 UKIP's, 2 Tories and 1 Labour before now we have 3 Brexit Party, 1 Labour and 1 LibDem.
She was first pick on the Brexit Party list so she was effectively guranteed a seat.


----------



## weepiper (May 27, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


>



Greens were on 8% 40 minutes ago


----------



## DexterTCN (May 27, 2019)

weepiper said:


> Greens were on 8% 40 minutes ago



cheers


----------



## Dogsauce (May 27, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


>




Labour is not a ‘Brexit Party’, fucking dunce.


----------



## skyscraper101 (May 27, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> um
> 
> jesus fucking effing christing effing fuck



... and Ann Widdecombe too, in case you missed it.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 27, 2019)

skyscraper101 said:


> ... and Ann Widdecombe too, in case you missed it.


ouch


----------



## Dogsauce (May 27, 2019)

Will give a good funding stream for Farage’s proposed Five Star Movement type party.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 27, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> Labour is not a ‘Brexit Party’, fucking dunce.


You have some proof of this?


----------



## Dogsauce (May 27, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> You have some proof of this?



To assume people voted Labour in support of Brexit is wide of the mark. Know loads of remainers that stuck with them.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 27, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> To assume people voted Labour in support of Brexit is wide of the mark. Know loads of remainers that stuck with them.


Do you have some proof that labour is not a brexit party though?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 27, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> Do you have some proof that labour is not a brexit party though?


It's not binary. Brexit party is a brexit party. Libdems and greens are explicitly remain parties, as are Plaid and the SNP. Neither labour nor the tories are explicitly either.


----------



## belboid (May 27, 2019)

Clare Regina Fox elected


----------



## Balbi (May 27, 2019)

So they're the target for both sides in a second referendum, the swing vote.

Remain will have to articulate a position that is both 'remaining in the E.U' and avoiding the 'going back to normal' shit that a lot of the Remain hardcore keep banging on about. And they'll be doing that against a Brexit Party which will capitalise on screaming 'OUT OUT OUT' and relying on those who want that, and attracting those who're so sick of fucking Brexit they just want an end to it one way or another.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 27, 2019)

Magid Magid elected for the greens. I think most of the people I know in Leeds put a cross in that box!


----------



## DexterTCN (May 27, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> It's not binary. Brexit party is a brexit party. Libdems and greens are explicitly remain parties, as are Plaid and the SNP. Neither labour nor the tories are explicitly either.


That is true.

However...the tweet was about Scotland, even though it was only the second part.  60% (plus the unannounced Greens at 4%.) 

I admit the main tweet was an arguable one about the UK.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 27, 2019)

I thought the Wings Over Scotland geezer was on the list of Known Twats?


----------



## Doctor Carrot (May 27, 2019)

Yaxley-Lennon got a pasting. I love how someone slipped in an extra name for him on his wikipedia


----------



## Dogsauce (May 27, 2019)

He still got 38,000-something votes. That’s a lot of arseholes at large.


----------



## Humberto (May 27, 2019)

Frank Field had the right idea.


----------



## Wilf (May 27, 2019)

Mildly interesting that of the parties who actually have a position, I suspect remain (libdem lice; green; chunks, PC; SNP) may be slightly ahead of leavers  (Brexit; ukip)
at the moment. No point posting figures as Scotland hasn't declared and there are plenty of other seats to go, but it might end up close.

I'd argue you can't spin that into a 'remain won'/'it was close' narrative as most of those voting tory probably want Brexit to happen. As for labour, fuck knows what they stand for... Anyway, all of that will be swept aside as the results will be taken as a simply story of 'farage won/the tories need to elect boris johnson'.

Edit: Brexit + ukip slightly pulling away after North West. London result was probably keeping Remain in the hunt.​


----------



## Wilf (May 27, 2019)

belboid said:


> Clare Regina Fox elected


----------



## DexterTCN (May 27, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> I thought the Wings Over Scotland geezer was on the list of Known Twats?


He's on the urban list of "do not visit the site and read the articles".

And one thing we know about urban anarchists...they do as they're told.


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 27, 2019)

Dogsauce said:


> He still got 38,000-something votes. That’s a lot of arseholes at large.



fuck all as a percentage of votes - he even came in  behind the CHUKs.


----------



## Wilf (May 27, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> fuck all as a percentage of votes - he even came in  behind the CHUKs.


Chuks have been a bit short on marketing gurus so far, but they could now use the strapline 'slightly better than Tommy Robinson'.


----------



## Rob Ray (May 27, 2019)

Tommeh just finished having a good old whinge about the dastardly censors on Rebel Media. TLDW: "The posties kept dumping my mail and the public kept trying to murder me, it's a conspiracy against Britain."


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 27, 2019)

> and the public kept trying to murder me



some of those milkshakes looked very potentially lethal...


----------



## Wilf (May 27, 2019)

I'm confused, how do we know what robinson got, but we don't know the North West result as a whole? I thought they just fed the figures into a formula that gave the seats per party i.e. there are no 2nd preferences to redistribute, counting stages etc?


----------



## Rob Ray (May 27, 2019)

Fortunately thanks to the generous donations of gullible idiots true patriots he was able to hire security to keep himself alive. Otherwise he might have drowned.


----------



## toblerone3 (May 27, 2019)

Its a DRAW. Do we go for a replay?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 27, 2019)

Wilf said:


> Mildly interesting that of the parties who actually have a position, I suspect remain (libdem lice; green; chunks, PC; SNP) may be slightly ahead of leavers  (Brexit; ukip)
> at the moment. No point posting figures as Scotland hasn't declared and there are plenty of other seats to go, but it might end up close.
> 
> I'd argue you can't spin that into a 'remain won'/'it was close' narrative as most of those voting tory probably want Brexit to happen. As for labour, fuck knows what they stand for... Anyway, all of that will be swept aside as the results will be taken as a simply story of 'farage won/the tories need to elect boris johnson'.​


I agree that you shouldn't read too much into it, but I would dispute the assumption that the rump who stuck with the tories are majority leave. I don't think we can really assume that. And if you're going to assume that, the majority of labour voters voted remain in the ref, so you'd have to also assume the majority of labour voters this election are some kind of remain. 

tbh I don't see how anyone can spin this in a way that isn't 'it is close between leave/remain'.


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 27, 2019)

Wilf said:


> I'm confused, how do we know what robinson got, but we don't know the North West result as a whole? I thought they just fed the figures into a formula that gave the seats per party i.e. there are no 2nd preferences to redistribute, counting stages etc?



north west seems to have declared


----------



## moochedit (May 27, 2019)

Wilf said:


> I'm confused, how do we know what robinson got, but we don't know the North West result as a whole? I thought they just fed the figures into a formula that gave the seats per party i.e. there are no 2nd preferences to redistribute, counting stages etc?



They did give a result for the north west seat allocation. Robinson didn't win one. 

Only scotland and northern ireland not declared and i don't they are expected until tommorow.


----------



## Wilf (May 27, 2019)

moochedit said:


> They did give a result for the north west seat allocation. Robinson didn't win one.
> 
> Only scotland and northern ireland not declared and i don't they are expected until tommorow.


Cheers. I was seeing reports of robinson's failure before the overall result had been announced.


----------



## moochedit (May 27, 2019)

Wilf said:


> Cheers. I was seeing reports of robinson's failure before the overall result had been announced.



I think people in the counting room have an idea of how it is going at counts and info leaks out.

Results here:

The UK’s European elections 2019 - BBC News

edit - also the individual councils announce results before the regional total result is given.


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (May 27, 2019)

Silvio Berlusconi is now an MEP, apparently.


----------



## Humberto (May 27, 2019)

as is Mad Frankie fraser


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (May 27, 2019)

Wilf said:


> Cheers. I was seeing reports of robinson's failure before the overall result had been announced.



The local councils all post their results as they are done, so it doesn't take too many of them to make a good guess at the full regional result.


----------



## Humberto (May 27, 2019)

Cockney villain. Mad frankie.


----------



## moochedit (May 27, 2019)

Humberto said:


> as is Mad Frankie fraser



for which party?

edit - died in 2014 so I guess not


----------



## Humberto (May 27, 2019)

moochedit said:


> for which party?
> 
> edit - died in 2014 so I guess not



Apparently Roy 'pretty boy' Shaw is the guv'nor so i've heard.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 27, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> If the GE happens before then this might suggest that far from the Remain surge being manageable in the South, Corbyn himself could lose his seat.


Absolute fucking cobblers. The idea that you can extrapolate from these results to GE shows that you have no clue what you are talking about. 

Like I said before no intellectual honesty.


----------



## YouSir (May 27, 2019)

Does anyone care about these results beyond Brexit Party headbangers, journos and people who spend all their time on Twitter? Also how fucking tedious is it to watch those people prophesying the political future like they're reading the entrails of a goat on the temple steps?


----------



## Badgers (May 27, 2019)

At least Yaxley-Lennon lost his deposit


----------



## Celyn (May 27, 2019)

Well, it's at least slightly interesting that Scotland has voted pretty strongly for pro-EU parties, I think. Not that it makes any difference to the whole thing, but worthy of note.


----------



## ferrelhadley (May 27, 2019)

Perhaps these election are completely irrelevant. Or perhaps those pushing that line have some "motivated reasoning" (    ) for trying that line.








Brexit looks like a classic example of a wedge issue.



> A *wedge issue* is a political or social issue, often of a controversial or divisive nature, which splits apart a demographic or population group. Wedge issues can be advertised or publicly aired in an attempt to strengthen the unity of a population, with the goal of enticing polarized individuals to give support to an opponent or to withdraw their support entirely out of disillusionment. The use of wedge issues gives rise to *wedge politics*. Wedge issues are also known as _hot button_ or _third rail_ issues.


Wedge issue - Wikipedia
Polarising an electorate and breaking traditional voting habits. Much like what happened with the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. That seen a very significant reshaping of the voting of the country.
The SNP though were a party with enough machinery and nouce to weed out the obvious cranks plus a long history in local government and Holyrood as a place to showcase their strengths. The Brexit party lack, or at least likely lack these. This hurt UKIP in the 2015-2017 time frame as they had a constant drip of fruitloop candidates in the press, perhaps the NewKIP Brexit party has learnt from that, time will tell. The Whig Dems have a structure and perhaps a deep enough membership to solidify gains, they used to be famous for their ground operation. But they have a very tarnished reputation from their 2010-2015 stint in power.
English and Welsh politics has tended to vary round the two main parties for a long time. You would feel the pull back towards that trend is the most likely outcome.
But only a buffoon is banking on that (oh hiya Boris!).
Luckily no one was dumb enough to cheer this polarisation


----------



## killer b (May 27, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> YouGov are using big samples for their polls, but coming up with some very strange figures, Brexit now on a whopping 37% & a lead of 18% over the LibDems, with Labour dropping to 13% & the Tories 7%, surely this can't be right?
> 
> I guess we will find out next Monday.
> 
> ...


YouGov more or less nailed it. That's not great news.


----------



## weepiper (May 27, 2019)

It's as though we're a different country or something


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 27, 2019)

killer b said:


> YouGov more or less nailed it. That's not great news.



I must admit I was surprised by that, most of the polls had Lab on 18-24%, keeping them in second place. 

For them to come out at just 14% & third place must be very worrying for them, trouble is it appears they lost voters to remain parties in London & the south, and to the brexit parties in the north, which is a bit of a headache for them.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 27, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Absolute fucking cobblers. The idea that you can extrapolate from these results to GE shows that you have no clue what you are talking about.
> 
> Like I said before no intellectual honesty.



You can disagree without utterly falling out. All I’m saying and others are saying too, is that the choice is not as clear as you make it and certainly enough to worry the leadership.

But in any case, if we are out before the next election, it doesn’t matter.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 27, 2019)

belboid said:


> Clare Regina Fox elected



‘Regina’ lol.

If it meant less of her on the TV I’d be pleased for her.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 27, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Absolute fucking cobblers. The idea that you can extrapolate from these results to GE shows that you have no clue what you are talking about.



Bloody good job too! Just for fun I put the figures into the electoral calculus website...

 

User-defined Poll


----------



## redsquirrel (May 27, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> You can disagree without utterly falling out. All I’m saying and others are saying too, is that the choice is not as clear as you make it and certainly enough to worry the leadership.


Have you got even a smidgeon of evidence that Islington North would overturn a 33,00 majority and go LD? A seat where even in 2005 Corbyn had a 6000 majority over the LDs.

Anyone who has the slightest interest in politics/psephology knows that EU elections are terrible predictors for behaviour at GE. LE results are also not very good, but they are much better than EU elections, and where were the most serious Labour losses. Not to the LDs/Grns in strong pro-EU areas but to eurosceptic independents in traditional Labour heartlands like Bolsover.

EDIT: The best predictors for GE results are GE opinion polls and while there has been a swing from Lab to the LDs it's nothing like enough to put most Labour seats in any danger. Moreover, there are very few Lab-Lib marginals either for Labour to take or to defend. Who forms the next government is going to be decided (as it nearly always is) in who wins in the Tory-Lab marginals. And in a not insignificant number of those seats had a majority vote for leave.


----------



## sleaterkinney (May 27, 2019)

Of course brexit will be a factor in the next GE. To say that European elections will not have a bearing on General elections based on a different situation in the past is _intellectual dishonesty_.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

sleaterkinney said:


> Of course brexit will be a factor in the next GE. To say that European elections will not have a bearing on General elections based on a different situation in the past is _intellectual dishonesty_.


You know as a fact that the votes of the 63% of people who didn't vote can't be predicted from last night's results. 100% of the BP voters I know won't vote BP in a subsequent general election, and I don't suppose I'm alone in that.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 27, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Have you got even a smidgeon of evidence that Islington North would overturn a 33,00 majority and go LD? A seat where even in 2005 Corbyn had a 6000 majority over the LDs.
> 
> Anyone who has the slightest interest in politics/psephology knows that EU elections are terrible predictors for behaviour at GE. LE results are also not very good, but they are much better than EU elections, and where were the most serious Labour losses. Not to the LDs/Grns in strong pro-EU areas but to eurosceptic independents in traditional Labour heartlands like Bolsover.



I’m saying it’s unlikely, but it will play on the mind every bit as much as the votes in Northern areas. And even if this is the least likely seat to go there are lots that will be vulnerable to Remain candidates if this continues.

You are right that the probable best way to proceed is a compromise deal and hope the country moves on quickly.


----------



## sleaterkinney (May 27, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> You know as a fact that the votes of the 63% of people who didn't vote can't be predicted from last night's results. 100% of the BP voters I know won't vote BP in a subsequent general election, and I don't suppose I'm alone in that.


You think the tories and labour won't be in line for a kicking?. That's the second election after the locals - which didn't count either...


----------



## redsquirrel (May 27, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> I’m saying it’s unlikely, but it will play on the mind every bit as much as the votes in Northern areas. And even if this is the least likely seat to go there are lots that will be vulnerable to Remain candidates if this continues.


You've probably missed my edit - my fault not yours - but where, outside Scotland, are these seats?



Mr Moose said:


> You are right that the probable best way to proceed is a compromise deal and hope the country moves on quickly.


I've not made any such argument.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 27, 2019)

sleaterkinney said:


> Of course brexit will be a factor in the next GE. To say that European elections will not have a bearing on General elections based on a different situation in the past is _intellectual dishonesty_.


Who has made any such claim?


----------



## sleaterkinney (May 27, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Who has made any such claim?


Sorry, missed the edit you just put in.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

sleaterkinney said:


> You think the tories and labour won't be in line for a kicking?. That's the second election after the locals - which didn't count either...


I think a load of labour and tory voters sat this one out. A lot of people thought the turnout would be higher, I among them, and I think these results won't be repeated in the next GE. Yes, other parties' share of the vote will rise at the ge but a peculiar aspect of this election is both remain and leave politicians calling for this vote to be treated as a rerun of the referendum. I think you're taking too much from these results without sufficient genuine foundation.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 27, 2019)

And just to reinforce the above this is the list of LD target seats. Which again backs up the info from the LEs, that a swing to the LDs hurts the Tories more than Lab.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 27, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> You've probably missed my edit - my fault not yours - but where, outside Scotland, are these seats?
> 
> I've not made any such argument.



Sorry, I thought you wrote that Labour should pursue a deal acceptable to its traditional vote. That has to be a compromise because it can’t go hard Brexit.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 27, 2019)

Leave % for top 10 Con-Lab marginals
Southampton Itchen - 60
Pudsey - 49
Hastings and Rye - 56
Chipping Barnet - 41
Thurrock - 70
Preseli Pembrokeshire - 55
Calder Valley - 53
Norwich North - 57
Broxtowe - 53 (Soubry's constituency)
Stoke-on-Trent South - 71

Leave % for top 10 Lab-Con marginals
Kensington - 31
Dudley North - 71
Newcastle-under-Lyme - 62
Crewe-and-Nantwich - 60
Canterbury - 45
Barrow and Furness - 57
Keighley - 53
Ashfield - 70
Stroud - 46
Bishop Auckland - 61

So 15 out of 20 seats with majorities for Leave.


----------



## Brainaddict (May 27, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Leave % for top 10 Con-Lab marginals
> Southampton Itchen - 60
> Pudsey - 49
> Hastings and Rye - 56
> ...


And yet the Remain Ultras insist the only way for Labour to win the next GE is for them to become a Remain party.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

Brainaddict said:


> And yet the Remain Ultras insist the only way for Labour to win the next GE is for them to become a Remain party.


Tbh they will have to decide which way to jump at some point


----------



## Balbi (May 27, 2019)

It's interesting really, the hardcore Second Referendum lot want Remain on the ballot - but in doing so they're opening the door for No Deal to be the other option.

The problem here is that Leave, and leaving, is a definitive change which opens up possibilities of something different. Remain, meanwhile, appears to be - as the vote was - made up of varying shades which range from 'Let's go back to when things were good in 2012', 'Let's get back to normal', 'Lets undo austerity', Let's build socialism etc etc, which are all in conflict with each other - much like the Remain message in 2016.

Simply saying, 'well people will have changed their minds' is true, and yet the campaign itself to convince the 20% odd in the middle could still fail - meaning the People's Vote campaign could ensure No Deal


----------



## agricola (May 27, 2019)

Balbi said:


> It's interesting really, the hardcore Second Referendum lot want Remain on the ballot - but in doing so they're opening the door for No Deal to be the other option.
> 
> The problem here is that Leave, and leaving, is a definitive change which opens up possibilities of something different. Remain, meanwhile, appears to be - as the vote was - made up of varying shades which range from 'Let's go back to when things were good in 2012', 'Let's get back to normal', 'Lets undo austerity', Let's build socialism etc etc, which are all in conflict with each other - much like the Remain message in 2016.
> 
> Simply saying, 'well people will have changed their minds' is true, and yet the campaign itself to convince the 20% odd in the middle could still fail - meaning the People's Vote campaign could ensure No Deal



TBF there is no argument that is likely to get through to some people at present.  Half a million people voted Brexit in the north-west despite Claire Fox supporting the Warrington bombing, and they did so because they think they are all patriots standing up for democracy.


----------



## Balbi (May 27, 2019)

Well that's alright, isn't it? 2nd Vote lot don't give a fuck about Brexit Party voters.


----------



## Brainaddict (May 27, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> Tbh they will have to decide which way to jump at some point


Though their position was ambiguous in the past, their formal position now is Softer Brexit. The way I see it, it is a position, but we're in a time of extremes so people claim it isn't - simply because it's not the position they want.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

Balbi said:


> It's interesting really, the hardcore Second Referendum lot want Remain on the ballot - but in doing so they're opening the door for No Deal to be the other option.
> 
> The problem here is that Leave, and leaving, is a definitive change which opens up possibilities of something different. Remain, meanwhile, appears to be - as the vote was - made up of varying shades which range from 'Let's go back to when things were good in 2012', 'Let's get back to normal', 'Lets undo austerity', Let's build socialism etc etc, which are all in conflict with each other - much like the Remain message in 2016.
> 
> Simply saying, 'well people will have changed their minds' is true, and yet the campaign itself to convince the 20% odd in the middle could still fail - meaning the People's Vote campaign could ensure No Deal


The major problem remain face both in attaining a second referendum and in winning one is that so few prominent remainers refuse to admit there is anything really wrong with the EU. If they did say 'while we're better off in Europe we need to deal with its shortcomings, and a vote to remain is a vote not for the eu of auld but for the UK to fight for an eu in which your concerns have been answered through genuine reforms and not the shitty crumbs cameron thought would fob you off' they'd likely take 10-20% of leavers with them. But that's as likely to happen as man city being relegated next season.


----------



## agricola (May 27, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> The major problem remain face both in attaining a second referendum and in winning one is that so few prominent remainers refuse to admit there is anything really wrong with the EU. If they did say 'while we're better off in Europe we need to deal with its shortcomings, and a vote to remain is a vote not for the eu of auld but for the UK to fight for an eu in which your concerns have been answered through genuine reforms and not the shitty crumbs cameron thought would fob you off' they'd likely take 10-20% of leavers with them. But that's as likely to happen as man city being relegated next season.



Isn't that Labour's stance from the referendum, though?


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

Brainaddict said:


> Though their position was ambiguous in the past, their formal position now is Softer Brexit. The way I see it, it is a position, but we're in a time of extremes so people claim it isn't - simply because it's not the position they want.


We'll see which way they go in the next several months


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

agricola said:


> Isn't that Labour's stance from the referendum, though?


And look how nearly it worked

But Cameron had puffed up his cup full of shit and unsurprisingly undermined the remain position


----------



## Balbi (May 27, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> And look how nearly it worked



Yes, but this time People's Vote - adeptly run by Alistair Campbell and other equally awful people - will definitely not Change UK the second referendum.

Edit: fuck, that's what Remain would look like. Change UK. Shit. We're fucked.


----------



## Winot (May 27, 2019)

I’m not in favour of a further ref for a number of reasons, not least of which the risk outlined by Balbi. There still seems to be a complacency that all that needs to be done is to convince Labour to hold a ref. That’s not enough - they need to hold one AND convincingly campaign for Remain. And  I can’t see Corbyn doing that.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

Balbi said:


> Yes, but this time People's Vote - adeptly run by Alistair Campbell and other equally awful people - will definitely not Change UK the second referendum.


It bolsters my belief that you could go round 650 pubs tomorrow morning and take out 325 men and 325 women selected at random and they would do a better job of resolving this unfortunate situation than 650 "professional" politicians


----------



## Brainaddict (May 27, 2019)

Winot said:


> I’m not in favour of a further ref for a number of reasons, not least of which the risk outlined by Balbi. There still seems to be a complacency that all that needs to be done is to convince Labour to hold a ref. That’s not enough - they need to hold one AND convincingly campaign for Remain. And  I can’t see Corbyn doing that.


It is really not Corbyn that made the Remain campaign look bad. The Remainers did that - and continue to do that - all by themselves. It's true Corbyn lacked enthusiasm in the Remain campaign, but the rest of the Remainers lacked any clue about what matters to people outside the London bubble, how to communicate with them, or who should front their campaigns. Tony fucking Blair and Alaisdar fucking Campbell dear god.


----------



## planetgeli (May 27, 2019)

I’m quite bemused/amused there is so much talk in this thread of a second referendum following that result. Coupled with the upcoming Tory leadership election, where’s that coming from then?

Sounds like remainers (i voted remain btw) going, “yeah but no but if but”.

Labour are stuck between a rock and a hard place. As is the country. I still think we’re heading for no deal.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

Brainaddict said:


> It is really not Corbyn that made the Remain campaign look bad. The Remainers did that - and continue to do that - all by themselves. It's true Corbyn lacked enthusiasm in the Remain campaign, but the rest of the Remainers lacked any clue about what matters to people outside the London bubble, how to communicate with them, or who should front their campaigns. Tony fucking Blair and Alaisdar fucking Campbell dear god.


All that's needed for a convincing remain win in a second ref is TB and a'f'c to make it known they favour no deal. No one wants to be on the same side as them so it's not to late for them to achieve a Remain victory


----------



## gentlegreen (May 27, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> It bolsters my belief that you could go round 650 pubs tomorrow morning and take out 325 men and 325 women selected at random and they would do a better job of resolving this unfortunate situation than 650 "professional" politicians


Why pubs for fucksake ?
How many of them would be wetherspoons ?


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

planetgeli said:


> I’m quite bemused/amused there is so much talk in this thread of a second referendum following that result. Coupled with the upcoming Tory leadership election, where’s that coming from then?
> 
> Sounds like remainers (i voted remain btw) going, “yeah but no but if but”.
> 
> Labour are stuck between a rock and a hard place. As is the country. I still think we’re heading for no deal.


Following that result as tho less than 15% of the electorate voting BP was in any way a previously unseen decisive result.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

gentlegreen said:


> Why pubs for fucksake ?
> How many of them would be wetherspoons ?


I'll take wetherspoons, you take youngs and Badgers will trawl fullers


----------



## planetgeli (May 27, 2019)

No it wasn’t unseen, now was it ever going to be decisive. We are stuck with indecision.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 27, 2019)

gentlegreen said:


> Why pubs for fucksake ?
> How many of them would be wetherspoons ?



What's wrong with people who drink in wetherspoons?


----------



## Proper Tidy (May 27, 2019)

For remain to win a second ref it would have to first offer some sort of change, which means acknowledging the EU isn't perfect and wholesome and cuddly, and second have to present some uniformity of position, which it can't.

Added to that, and while UK not in single currency, with slow German growth and Italy needing bail outs, good chance of a eurozone crisis over next year or so... it doesn't look like a great background for a position of let's just keep things as they've been


----------



## rutabowa (May 27, 2019)

planetgeli said:


> I’m quite bemused/amused there is so much talk in this thread of a second referendum following that result. Coupled with the upcoming Tory leadership election, where’s that coming from then?
> 
> Sounds like remainers (i voted remain btw) going, “yeah but no but if but”.
> 
> Labour are stuck between a rock and a hard place. As is the country. I still think we’re heading for no deal.


Agreed.... all I can take from these results is a massive confirmation of the leave vote in the referendum, I don't particularly like that but I don't think there's any other reading that isn't deluded.


----------



## gentlegreen (May 27, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> What's wrong with people who drink in wetherspoons?


To be honest I haven't been in any pub in about 6 years...


----------



## MickiQ (May 27, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> It bolsters my belief that you could go round 650 pubs tomorrow morning and take out 325 men and 325 women selected at random and they would do a better job of resolving this unfortunate situation than 650 "professional" politicians


Well personally I would go with 650 primary schools myself but I agree with your general point


----------



## brogdale (May 27, 2019)

gentlegreen said:


> To be honest I haven't been in any pub in about 6 years...


Likewise.


----------



## brogdale (May 27, 2019)

No, scrub that; my bad...thought it said _hours..._


----------



## gentlegreen (May 27, 2019)

brogdale said:


> No, scub that; my bad...thought it said _hours..._


----------



## brogdale (May 27, 2019)

All these Remainy/Leavy % 'analyses' in the medias have gone a bit Johnny Ball...


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

MickiQ said:


> Well personally I would go with 650 primary schools myself but I agree with your general point


I see no reason to leave the pupils bereft of teachers


----------



## Steel Icarus (May 27, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> I see no reason to leave the pupils bereft of teachers


Perhaps they were suggesting the _pupils._


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

S☼I said:


> Perhaps they were suggesting the _pupils._


I see no reason to expose the pupils to the lure of cheap bars and moral degradation they'd find at Westminster


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 27, 2019)

rutabowa said:


> Agreed.... all I can take from these results is a massive confirmation of the leave vote in the referendum, I don't particularly like that but I don't think there's any other reading that isn't deluded.


How so? I don't see any way of playing with those results that doesn't just confirm a very even split. Brexit parties up 7.5 points on last time but antibrexit also way up. And a fuzzy area in between. Tory and Labour losing votes both ways.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 27, 2019)

Balbi said:


> It's interesting really, the hardcore Second Referendum lot want Remain on the ballot - but in doing so they're opening the door for No Deal to be the other option.
> 
> The problem here is that Leave, and leaving, is a definitive change which opens up possibilities of something different. Remain, meanwhile, appears to be - as the vote was - made up of varying shades which range from 'Let's go back to when things were good in 2012', 'Let's get back to normal', 'Lets undo austerity', Let's build socialism etc etc, which are all in conflict with each other - much like the Remain message in 2016.
> 
> Simply saying, 'well people will have changed their minds' is true, and yet the campaign itself to convince the 20% odd in the middle could still fail - meaning the People's Vote campaign could ensure No Deal



What possibilities that are not possible within the EU?


----------



## MickiQ (May 27, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> I see no reason to expose the pupils to the lure of cheap bars and moral degradation they'd find at Westminster


They could manage the country in between their lessons, they would then probably be putting it at least as much effort as the current shower.


----------



## rutabowa (May 27, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> How so? I don't see any way of playing with those results that doesn't just confirm a very even split. Brexit parties up 7.5 points on last time but antibrexit also way up. And a fuzzy area in between. Tory and Labour losing votes both ways.


Because the single-issue party beat all the main parties into the distance, only a few months after being started.


----------



## newbie (May 27, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> It bolsters my belief that you could go round 650 pubs tomorrow morning and take out 325 men and 325 women selected at random and they would do a better job of resolving this unfortunate situation than 650 "professional" politicians


Given the option, 60% would look the other way, and the rest would split about 1/3 each for Remain, WTO and get a deal.  If pushed the abstainers would probably also split something like that. 

There's a pretty fundamental 3 way split that's going to take some real skillz to navigate towards something that most are content with.


----------



## gentlegreen (May 27, 2019)

rutabowa said:


> Because the single-issue party beat all the main parties into the distance, only a few months after being started.


Isn't it just UKIP under a new name ? (Which in turn was the fartage party)


----------



## maomao (May 27, 2019)

rutabowa said:


> Because the single-issue party beat all the main parties into the distance, only a few months after being started.



Realistically very few lib dem voters are voting on any other issue and those that are are almost certainly remain anyway. The vote for Green + LD is almost identical to that for Farage's lot. Even UKIP and ChangeUK's tiny proportions of the vote were almost identical. Can't see it says anything other than still split very evenly though with the turnout at 38% it's not a mandate for anything.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

newbie said:


> Given the option, 60% would look the other way, and the rest would split about 1/3 each for Remain, WTO and get a deal.  If pushed the abstainers would probably also split something like that.
> 
> There's a pretty fundamental 3 way split that's going to take some real skillz to navigate towards something that most are content with.


That's a pity as all our politicians are a rotten shower


----------



## planetgeli (May 27, 2019)

My point upthread was that it merely confirmed the virtual 50/50 divide.

But even if that vote for BP does only equate to something like 15% of the electorate that's an impressive figure for a party formed 6 weeks ago whose voters turned out for an election they don't believe in and for candidates who don't want to physically represent them.

Nobody and no argument is going to change their entrenched position. They aren't going away or have a fairy wand waved over them in a second referendum.


----------



## newbie (May 27, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> That's a pity as all our politicians are a rotten shower


ooh, I'm not sure it's just the local ones.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

newbie said:


> ooh, I'm not sure it's just the local ones.


All our politicians


----------



## ferrelhadley (May 27, 2019)

> Labour come in fifth in Scotland
> The SNP comfortably topped the poll in the European elections in Scotland, taking nearly 38% of the vote and three seats.
> 
> The Brexit Party were second with nearly 15% and one seat.
> ...


Reaction to UK European election results

_"Yes now the rains weep o'er his hall,
and not a soul to hear."

_


----------



## newbie (May 27, 2019)

planetgeli said:


> My point upthread was that it merely confirmed the virtual 50/50 divide.
> 
> But even if that vote for BP does only equate to something like 15% of the electorate that's an impressive figure for a party formed 6 weeks ago whose voters turned out for an election they don't believe in and for candidates who don't want to physically represent them.
> 
> Nobody and no argument is going to change their entrenched position. They aren't going away or have a fairy wand waved over them in a second referendum.


It's not 50/50.  A bit over a third each voted unambiguously no deal and remain, and nearly 1/4 stuck with one or other of the big main parties, who are both seeking some sort of managed deal. It's the same 3 way split as parliament.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 27, 2019)

When I first looked at the list of MEPs for the SE, I saw Alexandra Phillips listed twice, without any middle names, and thought that was a mistake, turns out it wasn't.


----------



## Poi E (May 27, 2019)

"In her victory speech, Claire Fox said the Brexit Party "will remake the world in a new form"."

Brexit Party wins three North West seats
Get ready, folks.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

Poi E said:


> "In her victory speech, Claire Fox said the Brexit Party "will remake the world in a new form"."
> 
> Brexit Party wins three North West seats
> Get ready, folks.


she couldn't redo her sitting room let alone the remake the world


----------



## JimW (May 27, 2019)

Brave new world.


----------



## A380 (May 27, 2019)

JimW said:


> Brave new world.


Led by epsilons...


----------



## kebabking (May 27, 2019)

I notice Dan Hannan has lost his European seat - I wonder whether he'll be looking for a Westminster seat, and for which party...


----------



## gosub (May 27, 2019)

kebabking said:


> I notice Dan Hannan has lost his European seat - I wonder whether he'll be looking for a Westminster seat, and for which party...


Nah he got back in. One of only 4 tories that did.   Might be difficult with those sort of numbers to continue providing the strength and stability we"ve begun to take for granted


----------



## belboid (May 27, 2019)

kebabking said:


> I notice Dan Hannan has lost his European seat - I wonder whether he'll be looking for a Westminster seat, and for which party...


He scraped in, actually


----------



## gentlegreen (May 27, 2019)

Poi E said:


> "In her victory speech, Claire Fox said the Brexit Party "will remake the world in a new form"."
> 
> Brexit Party wins three North West seats
> Get ready, folks.



Jihadi paedophile porn for everyone !


----------



## Mr Moose (May 27, 2019)

belboid said:


> He scraped in, actually



That’s nice. He can have one more go on the gravy train the hypocrite.

Daniel Hannan's MEP group told to repay €535,000 in EU funds


----------



## Mr Moose (May 27, 2019)

Poi E said:


> "In her victory speech, Claire Fox said the Brexit Party "will remake the world in a new form"."
> 
> Brexit Party wins three North West seats
> Get ready, folks.



Post Brexit Britain will lead the world in vacuous ‘thought’ consultancies. Ex steel workers will be encouraged to set up ‘think tanks’ to consider ‘difficult’ problems i.e. how to present right wing concerns as left wing ones.


----------



## rekil (May 27, 2019)

Poi E said:


> "In her victory speech, Claire Fox said the Brexit Party "will remake the world in a new form"."


----------



## gosub (May 27, 2019)

Poi E said:


> "In her victory speech, Claire Fox said the Brexit Party "will remake the world in a new form"."
> 
> Brexit Party wins three North West seats
> Get ready, folks.


Thank fuck for that. Starting to find the flat earth nonsense a bit tedious


Newell teapot ftw


----------



## Limejuice (May 27, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> When I first looked at the list of MEPs for the SE, I saw Alexandra Phillips listed twice, without any middle names, and thought that was a mistake, turns out it wasn't.
> 
> View attachment 172405


I was watching the results as they were announced on the BBC, and the caption showed 'Alexandra Phillips' twice.

I thought, good old Beeb, some poor sausage has been hammering away at the captions all night, probably needs a double-espresso and a ciggy.


----------



## teuchter (May 27, 2019)

cupid_stunt said:


> When I first looked at the list of MEPs for the SE, I saw Alexandra Phillips listed twice, without any middle names, and thought that was a mistake, turns out it wasn't.
> 
> View attachment 172405


Great anecdote - thanks for sharing.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 27, 2019)

teuchter said:


> Great anecdote - thanks for sharing.



No problem, you twat.


----------



## gosub (May 27, 2019)

anyone seen any stats on spoiled ballots?


----------



## belboid (May 27, 2019)

They did seem high when they were being read out 5-10k in each constituency


----------



## Ranbay (May 27, 2019)

gosub said:


> anyone seen any stats on spoiled ballots?


----------



## killer b (May 27, 2019)

Ashcroft has some figures about where votes moved between parties and the like here - click through for more.


----------



## brogdale (May 27, 2019)

killer b said:


> Ashcroft has some figures about where votes moved between parties and the like here - click through for more.



Lab shedding 3 "R" : 1 "L"


----------



## ferrelhadley (May 27, 2019)

So right wing
Brexit: 5,244,893  31.6%
Liberal Dem: 3,366,673 20.3%
Conservative: 1,510,874 at 9.1%
Change: 571,846 about 3.3%
UKIP: 554,463 another 3.1%

Giving about 67.4%

Left (or if your _that_ kind, centrist)
Labour 2,346,441 14.1%
Green: 2,010,328 12.1%
SNP: 590,947 3.6% 
Plaid: 163,928 1%
Socialist Party of Great Britain: 3,505 0.0% (ffs you get more people at Rugby Park for a Kilmarnock game!)

About 30.8% (the other 3% is mostly in the exclave on the island of Ireland)

Pretty grim reading. 
First up the Momentum "youth surge" or whatever has disappeared. 
Labour seems down to its bare bones loyalists. 
Any "one nation" Conservative and Unionist party is now dead. 
I do not think this says much about how people will vote in a general election but it does suggest that emotive issues like national identity are able to sway people away from parties that may think they represent voters best interests economically. 
Been thinking about this today and it strikes me that the tories are going to put up a bombastic Brexiter as party leader and embrace the polarisation. Taking out the Lib Dem and CHUK vote that most people would see as economically centrist, there is still a huge amount of votes for the tories to hoover up if they can get some momentum behind a bombastic "put us in power and its either a much better deal or no deal" type message in a snap election. 
As much as this election has been: lol 9%, I think they have a reasonable chance of mugging together a big enough vote in a mixed anti Labour and "Brexit at any cost" coalition for them to seriously try in August or somewhere around then. 

As always your mileage may vary.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

ferrelhadley said:


> So right wing
> Brexit: 5,244,893  31.6%
> Liberal Dem: 3,366,673 20.3%
> Conservative: 1,510,874 at 9.1%
> ...


You might wonder what the other ~40% of the electorate who turned out in 2016 were doing, being as the turnout was so low

John Lydon described anarchism as mind games for the middle classes. I'd say psephology should have the same def


----------



## ferrelhadley (May 27, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> You might wonder what the other ~40% of the electorate *who turned out in 2016* were doing,


Waiting for a general election a year later?


----------



## maomao (May 27, 2019)

ferrelhadley said:


> So right wing
> Brexit: 5,244,893  31.6%
> Liberal Dem: 3,366,673 20.3%
> Conservative: 1,510,874 at 9.1%
> ...


I think it's a mistake to split it into left and right but surely if you're not the kind of lefty who considers Labour and the Greens centrists then you don't consider the LDs properly right wing? If your right wing covers everything from sandal wearing liberals to the swivel eyed loons on the other side of UKIP then no wonder it's doing better than your rather narrow left.


----------



## ferrelhadley (May 27, 2019)

maomao said:


> I think it's a mistake to split it into left and right but surely if you're not the kind of lefty who considers Labour and the Greens centrists then you don't consider the LDs properly right wing


I was going with what I thought urban would think rather than the general populace.


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 27, 2019)

reasonable chunk of tory vote went to lib dems. they can say goodbye to them if they go for hard brexit - and still wont get back all of those that went to farage. They are fucked.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

ferrelhadley said:


> Waiting for a general election a year later?


You think it'll be next year?


----------



## Pickman's model (May 27, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> reasonable chunk of tory vote went to lib dems. they can say goodbye to them if they go for hard brexit - and still wont get back all of those that went to farage. They are fucked.


Any ge will see a great decline in bp's fortunes


----------



## not-bono-ever (May 27, 2019)

give me a definitive list of good things about today that i can cut out and keep in my wallet


----------



## kebabking (May 27, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> reasonable chunk of tory vote went to lib dems. they can say goodbye to them if they go for hard brexit - and still wont get back all of those that went to farage. They are fucked.



I disagree - if the Tories go for (or end up with) a hard brexit then yes, _some_ of those Tories who went LD won't return in the near term, but once it's done and the next GE is the Tories or a Corbynite Labour party, then pragmatism will prevail.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 27, 2019)

gosub said:


> anyone seen any stats on spoiled ballots?


----------



## Celyn (May 27, 2019)

Apart from the rabies aspect, the wolves are probably a good choice - intelligent, with sort of shared social values, and nicer looking than most politicians.


----------



## Puddy_Tat (May 27, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> View attachment 172469



isn't that a bit risky?  could be taken as a vote for ukip...


----------



## Artaxerxes (May 27, 2019)

killer b said:


> Ashcroft has some figures about where votes moved between parties and the like here - click through for more.




But it's the Labour voters that gave us Brexit


----------



## taffboy gwyrdd (May 27, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> she couldn't redo her sitting room let alone the remake the world



I’m sure she’ll find her way round the expense forms.


----------



## gosub (May 27, 2019)

belboid said:


> They did seem high when they were being read out 5-10k in each constituency



looks like it would be a bit of work to get the stat (do able but I'm busy)
but London alone was 17,397


----------



## DexterTCN (May 27, 2019)

Celyn said:


> Apart from the rabies aspect, the wolves are probably a good choice - intelligent, with sort of shared social values, and nicer looking than most politicians.


You know whose ballot paper it is then


----------



## The39thStep (May 27, 2019)

Portugal : Socialist  Party 6 seats, SDP ( liberal/con types) 4 seats, Left Block 2 seats ( doubled their vote ) , Communist Party/ Greens alliance 1 seat.


----------



## Gerry1time (May 27, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> View attachment 172469



Did anyone see the story earlier today where someone wrote ‘wank’ in each of the boxes on the ballot paper, but wrote ‘not wank’ in the box for the greens, and it was examined and counted as a vote for the greens?


----------



## Old Spark (May 27, 2019)

Libdems say they will target tory leadership contenders-boris,raab,mcvey,hunt,leadsom,all of whom had higher remain votes in their constituencies  than hard brexit.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 27, 2019)

ferrelhadley said:


> So right wing
> Brexit: 5,244,893  31.6%
> Liberal Dem: 3,366,673 20.3%
> Conservative: 1,510,874 at 9.1%
> ...



Youth surge didn't happen. It's been posted on here before - Labour got 40 percent at the last election without a youth surge. That's actually cause for optimism, imo, as it means that a youth surge can still happen and make a difference - Uk's youth voting percentages are pitiful, a recent phenomenon, and atypical of European countries, it's absolutely something that could be turned around.

imo Labour would be best off throwing itself behind 'this is a shitfuck and should be stopped' as a strategy. They can start something else from that basis. At the moment they're stuck.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

littlebabyjesus said:


> imo Labour would be best off throwing itself behind 'this is a shitfuck and should be stopped' as a strategy. They can start something else from that basis. At the moment they're stuck.


"Best" in what way? 
Politically? Then what does that say to the millions of people who voted to Leave but that their views don't count, have never counted.
Electorally? Then where are the extra seats Labour needs for a (majority) government coming from? 

And what does "stopped" actually mean? A 2nd referendum with Labour campaigning for Remain, as Thornberry wants? Or are you arguing that even that pretence of a democratic mandate not be bothered with and Labour simply pushes for revoking A50?


----------



## Mojofilter (May 28, 2019)

ferrelhadley said:


> So right wing
> Brexit: 5,244,893  31.6%
> Liberal Dem: 3,366,673 20.3%
> Conservative: 1,510,874 at 9.1%
> ...


I think it's a mistake to look at this election as a left / right issue when it's plainly about Brexit.

Also, calling the Lib Dems and Change UK right wing is a stretch.

Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk


----------



## Funky_monks (May 28, 2019)

Mojofilter said:


> I think it's a mistake to look at this election as a left / right issue when it's plainly about Brexit.
> 
> Also, calling the Lib Dems and Change UK right wing is a stretch.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk



No it isn't, they are both pretty right wing. They aren't to the right of the right wing Tories, but they are definitely on a par with the "left" of the Tory party.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 28, 2019)

Mojofilter said:


> I think it's a mistake to look at this election as a left / right issue when it's plainly about Brexit.
> 
> Also, calling the Lib Dems and Change UK right wing is a stretch.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G975F using Tapatalk


No it isn't


----------



## sleaterkinney (May 28, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> "Best" in what way?
> Politically? Then what does that say to the millions of people who voted to Leave but that their views don't count, have never counted.
> Electorally? Then where are the extra seats Labour needs for a (majority) government coming from?


It's clear what they're doing now isn't working for the people who voted for them in the past, because they voted remain.


----------



## killer b (May 28, 2019)

I think Labour's approach to brexit has been broadly correct if poorly articulated, but I can't see how the leadership resists backing a second referendum now. I think a leadership challenge with the right candidate, fought on these lines would win, and they know it too.


----------



## brogdale (May 28, 2019)

killer b said:


> I think Labour's approach to brexit has been broadly correct if poorly articulated, but I can't see how the leadership resists backing a second referendum now. I think a leadership challenge with the right candidate, fought on these lines would win, and they know it too.


Tend to agree, but I reckon they'll be some in and around the inner circle arguing that a 'holding position' is required until they know what sort of Government they'll have on the benches opposite. If it's a No-Deal oriented tory leader intent on shooting Farage's fox...then their decision would be made for them.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

sleaterkinney said:


> It's clear what they're doing now isn't working for the people who voted for them in the past, because they voted remain.


What? You are going to have to rephrase that as at the moment it's as clear as mud.



killer b said:


> I think Labour's approach to brexit has been broadly correct if poorly articulated, but I can't see how the leadership resists backing a second referendum now. I think a leadership challenge with the right candidate, fought on these lines would win, and they know it too.


I think the leadership is increasingly moving to that position. But (1) it will have serious ramifications political and electoral and (2) it goes back to the point that Wilf has repeatedly made that this is the problem with a focus on the party. 

The damage might be minimised if Labour can make a 2nd ref an opposition to no deal but even then they are handing votes to the Brexit party (or whoever) in many seats.


----------



## planetgeli (May 28, 2019)

sleaterkinney said:


> It's clear what they're doing now isn't working for the people who voted for them in the past, because they voted remain.



Sigh. This sweeping generalisation isn't true, particularly outside of the London 'bubble' (and it is a bubble, I speak to friends and relatives in London who should know better). Labour's problem is that, as redsquirrel constantly points out, electorally marginal constituencies that Labour needs to win often voted 'leave'. Any second referendum bs risks leaving these people behind. If a straight referendum was held now, which it won't be, on 'leave' or 'remain' you risk getting exactly the same result, or one not much different.


----------



## sleaterkinney (May 28, 2019)

planetgeli said:


> Sigh. This sweeping generalisation isn't true, particularly outside of the London 'bubble' (and it is a bubble, I speak to friends and relatives in London who should know better). Labour's problem is that, as redsquirrel constantly points out, electorally marginal constituencies that Labour needs to win often voted 'leave'. Any second referendum bs risks leaving these people behind. If a straight referendum was held now, which it won't be, on 'leave' or 'remain' you risk getting exactly the same result, or one not much different.


So they go leave and compete with Tories and the Brexit party while ruining their existing vote?.


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## killer b (May 28, 2019)

Leave supporting Labour voters _is_ (part of) their exiting vote though.


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## sleaterkinney (May 28, 2019)

killer b said:


> Leave supporting Labour voters _is_ (part of) their exiting vote though.


But the majority of their voters are remain.


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## killer b (May 28, 2019)

sleaterkinney said:


> But the majority of their voters are remain.


Yeah, but their leave voters are strategically placed in seats they need to hold. Even if there wasn't a desire to move beyond brexit and somehow forge a compromise which leave and remain voters would both be able to accept, on purely electoral calculations they want to keep hold of them. What's the point of piling up a few thousand votes in safe city seats if you're losing them in marginal towns?


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## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Have you actually read what I, planetgeli and others have posted? 
Where were the big losses of seats for Labour in the LEs? Is every vote equal?


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## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

But leave voters who feel particularly strongly about brexit aren't going to vote labour anyway. Those votes are gone - labour cant credibly pitch itself as a leave party and its "compromise" position loses votes from both sides whilst gaining none.  
Their is no meaningful compromise on brexit - any deal is demonstrably shitter than staying in - so its gets rejected by both brexiteers and remainers on that basis. 
And the identification of "remain" as liberal middle class vs brexit  as   "trad working  class" is trite. A large chunk of working class people voted remain (and a larger chunk didn't vote at all). Labour needs to challenge this perception rather than pander to it as some of its more pro-brexit elements do.


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## Pickman's model (May 28, 2019)

planetgeli said:


> Sigh. This sweeping generalisation isn't true, particularly outside of the London 'bubble' (and it is a bubble, I speak to friends and relatives in London who should know better). Labour's problem is that, as redsquirrel constantly points out, electorally marginal constituencies that Labour needs to win often voted 'leave'. Any second referendum bs risks leaving these people behind. If a straight referendum was held now, which it won't be, on 'leave' or 'remain' you risk getting exactly the same result, or one not much different.


it's very convenient, isn't it, that there has been manufactured this opposition to a second referendum which places a decision on the actual terms of departure before the electorate. back in 2016 the question was 'do you want to leave'; the issue of what leave looks like needs a decision, because otherwise, in two or five or ten years there may be some almighty row about why the matter was never put. i've long seen, i'm sure other people have long seen, whines about mass immigration along the lines of 'we never voted for this'. why is it a really good idea to refuse to put a deal to the electorate when the refusal simply kicks problems with it down the line that can easily be prevented?


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## teqniq (May 28, 2019)

Hunt: push for no-deal Brexit would be 'political suicide'



> The UK will be forced into a general election that will obliterate the Conservative party if a new leader pushes for the UK to leave the EU with no deal in October, Jeremy Hunt has said....


Yes please.


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## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> But leave voters who feel particularly strongly about brexit aren't going to vote labour anyway. Those votes are gone -


The absolute hardcore 'no deal' lot maybe but even lower end of estimates put about 25% of Labour voters in favour of Leave. And they need to not only hold onto those voters but gain more Leave voters if they want to win a majority.

The simple fact is that any party that wants to get a parliamentary majority needs to be able to appeal to both those that voted Remain and those that voted Leave, not in equal measures but to some degree. A LP with some sort of mild Leave can do that, an LP pushing for a second vote where it will back Remain loses much of that crucial Leave support it requires.

Your position essentially seems to be the same as Masons, and Smokeandsteam is absolutely correct about where that ends up.


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## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim (and anyone else) if Labour go full out Remain how do they hold Peterborough (60% Leave)? 

EDIT: Let alone Ashfield (70% Leave)


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## Don Troooomp (May 28, 2019)

Whatever way we look at the vote, we have to understand we have a serious problem, and massaging numbers to show a likely remain win in a potential future second referendum isn't going to help us.
What we need to do is make bloody sure the public don't fall for any more leave scare stories, and to get our side of things into the news with logical, reasonable argument.
We aren't going to do ourselves any good until we can show we're right, but BJ and his bastard team are very likely to stuff us before we can do it because they've been empowered by this vote, and Labour leaders are likely to be running scared at the moment so we can't rely on them to do much of any use.


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## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

What the fuck is this "we" I'm certainly not on the same side as a nasty sexist, liberal loon like you.


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## Gerry1time (May 28, 2019)

Old Spark said:


> Libdems say they will target tory leadership contenders-boris,raab,mcvey,hunt,leadsom,all of whom had higher remain votes in their constituencies  than hard brexit.



Tbf, it's not the Lib Dems, it's Ed Davey as part of his Lib Dem leadership pitch. He was part of the 'decapitation strategy' the Lib Dems tried on the Tories in 2005, given lots of the Tory top people at the time were in potentially Lib Dem winnable seats. It failed then, only removing Tim Collins, and arguably helped the Tories they were targetting to hang on. So it's basically a rehashed failed idea to grab some headlines, and one I can't see the Lib Dems doing at the expense of more winnable seats given how little money they have.


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## planetgeli (May 28, 2019)

Pickman's model said:


> why is it a really good idea to refuse to put a deal to the electorate when the refusal simply kicks problems with it down the line that can easily be prevented?



The answer to this question entirely depends what question is asked on the second referendum ballot paper. And people’s ability to understand the question, which depends on what information they are given about what any deal means. Or even what no deal means should that be on the paper.


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## krtek a houby (May 28, 2019)

Don Troooomp said:


> Whatever way we look at the vote, we have to understand we have a serious problem, and massaging numbers to show a likely remain win in a potential future second referendum isn't going to help us.
> What we need to do is make bloody sure the public don't fall for any more leave scare stories, and to get our side of things into the news with logical, reasonable argument.
> We aren't going to do ourselves any good until we can show we're right, but BJ and his bastard team are very likely to stuff us before we can do it because they've been empowered by this vote, and Labour leaders are likely to be running scared at the moment so we can't rely on them to do much of any use.



I'm just disappointed SF didn't do as well as hoped. The most important thing is that the 6 counties are not thrown into chaos by the British politicians who don't give a shite about them.


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## Pickman's model (May 28, 2019)

planetgeli said:


> The answer to this question entirely depends what question is asked on the second referendum ballot paper. And people’s ability to understand the question, which depends on what information they are given about what any deal means. Or even what no deal means should that be on the paper.


If 20 years ago the electorate across Ireland could understand the settlement known as the gfa, establishing the legislative assembly and the cross-border institutions, and in the 26 cos changing the constitution, I think we should be able to rely on the good sense of a population which has been bombarded with all things brexit for more than three years


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## LDC (May 28, 2019)

.


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## brogdale (May 28, 2019)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> .


Are you in the right thread?


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## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Kaka Tim (and anyone else) if Labour go full out Remain how do they hold Peterborough (60% Leave)?
> 
> EDIT: Let alone Ashfield (70% Leave)



But if those voters are voting on the basis of supporting brexit - then they are lost to labour anyway. But so  are the those who are voting on the basis of opposing brexit. The latter group can be won back - the former cant. Its shit - but labour is in a bind and there is no good outcome - just damage limitation. 
Labour has to go remain and reform and do its best to convince w/class brexit voters that their interests are served by  labour government's other policies.


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## kabbes (May 28, 2019)

Interesting (to me).  My constituency, Mole Valley, was about 53% remain, 47% leave in the referendum.  Proper Tory heartland — the useless Tory MP gets over 50% in general elections.  In the local elections, in turned Lib Dem.  So that gives a flavour of its general background.

This election it had:

Lib Dem 37.4%
Brexit 33.6%
Green 11.1%
Tory 11.0%
ChUK 4.1%
Labour 2.8%

So that’s again about 53% for hardcore remain.

I can’t imagine the Tories are worried about losing Mole Valley in a general election — I imagine Brexit Party voters will all go back to the Tories — but it’s still properly shocking to see them behind the Greens and 27% behind the Libs


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## AnandLeo (May 28, 2019)

I think the EU election results are a farce. These Turkeys longing for Christmas!


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## SpackleFrog (May 28, 2019)

Don Troooomp said:


> We aren't going to do ourselves any good until we can show we're right



You're fucked then pal.


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## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> But if those voters are voting on the basis of supporting brexit - then they are lost to labour anyway. But so  are the those who are voting on the basis of opposing brexit. The latter group can be won back - the former cant.


What is this contention based on? People don't vote on only one issue, the fact that Labour won (just) Ashfield shows that longtime Labour voters that want to Leave the EU can find LP that leans Remain palatable. But a LP that goes full on for Remain is a very different kettle of fish, something that some won't put up with. And there doesn't need to be many to see a shit of load of seats go.   


Kaka Tim said:


> Labour has to go remain and reform and do its best to convince w/class brexit voters that their interests are served by  labour government's other policies.


You do realise you have ended up arguing the same line as Mason, Thornberry, Watson and Blair.



			
				Blair said:
			
		

> The risk for Labour is that if it doesn’t put forward a set of policies that can command support in the centre as well as on the left then it can’t get to a majority. On Europe he [Corbyn] has just got to come to a clear position. Both party leaderships have made the same mistake which is to think that it is possible to sit on the fence on Europe and appeal to both sides. The European elections show that isn’t possible.”


Your strategy seems to be the same as Mason's, concentrate on the inner cities with their floating voters and write off the leave supporting LP heartlands, with the long time Labour supporters.You are arguing for replacing longtime loyal Labour voters in key marginals with fluctuating voters in metropolitan seats most of which will fall Labour anyway.


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## planetgeli (May 28, 2019)

It’s an interesting dichotomy, this desire from Remainers who seek wish fulfilment while also presumably seeking electoral success for Labour. 

Well, when I say interesting...


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## SpackleFrog (May 28, 2019)

killer b said:


> I think Labour's approach to brexit has been broadly correct if poorly articulated, but I can't see how the leadership resists backing a second referendum now. I think a leadership challenge with the right candidate, fought on these lines would win, and they know it too.



Not particularly picking on you killer but this and some other responses have got me thinking.

The thing with this idea that Labour were right to offer some sort of compromise soft Brexit which would please most people is that it seems to be premised on the idea that Labour has to find a way of pleasing both sets of voters based on what they want now rather than articulate a vision that could appeal to everyone. Which is, to be fair, not dissimilar to the triangulation approach of New Labour.

A lot of opposition to leaving the EU is motivated - particularly among people who genuinely would vote Labour as opposed to those who are more likely to be attracted by the Lib Dems - by an understanding of Brexit as a racist/nationalist project. Articulating a positive vision of the UK outside the EU, not because it's what people voted for blah blah but because it would be *better* could win over voters on both sides and change peoples minds. 

Equally, articulating a positive vision of remaining in the EU which is markedly different to the catastrophising approach of most remainers (ie economic chaos if we leave) could have the same effect, although I've no idea how that could be achieved. 

There wasn't exactly a strong narrative in the mainstream in 2017 that what people wanted to vote for a more anti-austerity/social democratic Labour Party but they did vote for Corbyn's Labour in huge numbers. The conversation now though is all about what voters want rather than what is needed.


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## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

But are the labour heartlands "leave supporting"? I dont think its that simple. And how important is it to them? Those for whom its a big deal  are lost anyway. 
Yes - labour going remain will cost them - but their present position is demonstrably costing them more. There is enough political cover now to make the case that Brexit is fucked - and its been fucked by the tories - there are far more urgent issues that need addressing. Minds can be changed. 
And the first part of Blairs quoute (blah balh labour must move to the centre) doesn't really connect with the rest - "fence sitting on brexit wont work" - but it wont, it isn't working. It did up to a point - but not any more. 
I dont think labours brexit position was every really about winning votes - it was about mantaining party unity. But is has reached the end of its road. 
Most people are sick of the situation and want it to be over. But - and this argument needs to be made - anything other than cancelling the whole shebang - will ensure it drags on and on for years. Deal or no deal.


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## SpackleFrog (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> But are the labour heartlands "leave supporting"? I dont think its that simple. And how important is it to them? Those for whom its a big deal  are lost anyway.
> Yes - labour going remain will cost them - but their present position is demonstrably costing them more. There is enough political cover now to make the case that Brexit is fucked - and its been fucked by the tories - there are far more urgent issues that need addressing. Minds can be changed.
> And the first part of Blairs quoute (blah balh labour must move to the centre) doesn't really connect with the rest - "fence sitting on brexit wont work" - but it wont, it isn't working. It did up to a point - but not any more.
> I dont think labours brexit position was every really about winning votes - it was about mantaining party unity. But is has reached the end of its road.
> Most people are sick of the situation and want it to be over. But - and this argument needs to be made - anything other than cancelling the whole shebang - will ensure it drags on and on for years. Deal or no deal.



Why are traditional laboru voters for whom Brexit is a big deal "lost anyway"? Would they be lost if Labour articulated a vision of leave?


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## Mr Moose (May 28, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> What is this contention based on? People don't vote on only one issue, the fact that Labour won (just) Ashfield shows that longtime Labour voters that want to Leave the EU can find LP that leans Remain palatable. But a LP that goes full on for Remain is a very different kettle of fish, something that some won't put up with. And there doesn't need to be many to see a shit of load of seats go.
> You do realise you have ended up arguing the same line as Mason, Thornberry, Watson and Blair.
> 
> Your strategy seems to be the same as Mason's, concentrate on the inner cities with their floating voters and write off the leave supporting LP heartlands, with the long time Labour supporters.You are arguing for replacing longtime loyal Labour voters in key marginals with fluctuating voters in metropolitan seats most of which will fall Labour anyway.



I agree with most of what you write here. Trouble is there are many fucked up outcomes for Labour, such as the party that enables a Tory Brexit, damned by those floaters. It is balanced on the points of several sharp swords.

I would like to see it pursue the compromise option that gets us out and beyond. But the fetish that Brexit has become also needs chopping down to size. The nation has become hysterical about something that offers little in and of itself.


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## co-op (May 28, 2019)

kabbes said:


> I can’t imagine the Tories are worried about losing Mole Valley in a general election — I imagine Brexit Party voters will all go back to the Tories — but it’s still properly shocking to see them behind the Greens and 27% behind the Libs



The tory whips used to write off European elections as 'one-night-stand' elections, i.e loads of their voters sneak off and have a little extra-marital tryst with UKIP in the euros but in the end they're married to the Conservative Party and they'll always come back. It'll be interesting to see whether that pattern can hold up now that we're dealing with an actual real Brexit rather than the middle-aged fantasy version pre-referendum.


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## Proper Tidy (May 28, 2019)

sleaterkinney said:


> It's clear what they're doing now isn't working for the people who voted for them in the past, because they voted remain.


Depends what you mean by the past. 2017 voters, heavily remain. But what about typical labour voters for 15, 10, what about its traditional post war base, does labour just write them off


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## kabbes (May 28, 2019)

co-op said:


> The tory whips used to write off European elections as 'one-night-stand' elections, i.e loads of their voters sneak off and have a little extra-marital tryst with UKIP in the euros but in the end they're married to the Conservative Party and they'll always come back. It'll be interesting to see whether that pattern can hold up now that we're dealing with an actual real Brexit rather than the middle-aged fantasy version pre-referendum.


Indeed.  And the problem they have now is that the trysts are not just the Brexiters voting Brexit but also the remainers voting LibDem/Green.  It’s less clear to me that the latter will so readily return to the Tories as things stand, and it’s only a Tory-> Lib swing that could actually hurt them come the election.


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## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> But are the labour heartlands "leave supporting"? I dont think its that simple.


Many are - Ashfield, Bolsover, Hartlepool, Scunthorpe, Don Valley.


Kaka Tim said:


> And how important is it to them? Those for whom its a big deal  are lost anyway.Yes - labour going remain will cost them - *but their present position is demonstrably costing them more.*


On what basis are you making this claim? LE results are not a good proxy for GEs but they are a damn site better then euro election results and where Labour lost heavily it was in these Leave supporting heartlands.


Kaka Tim said:


> There is enough political cover now to make the case that Brexit is fucked - and its been fucked by the tories - there are far more urgent issues that need addressing. Minds can be changed.
> ...
> Most people are sick of the situation and want it to be over. But - and this argument needs to be made - anything other than cancelling the whole shebang - will ensure it drags on and on for years. Deal or no deal.


So how is your strategy not the same as Mason's? Give up on the leave voters (a non negligible proportion of which are/were long time Labour backers) and concentrate on the inner city socially liberal voters, voters that are far more fickle in their support? If you are going to argue this line for political reasons then ok I can't agree with you but fine, but it to argue it on electoral reasons is false.


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## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Why are traditional laboru voters for whom Brexit is a big deal "lost anyway"? Would they be lost if Labour articulated a vision of leave?



But labour has been touting a version of leave - but committed leave voters dont buy it - and they dont but the tory version either - so they've gone to brexit party. Labour hasn't got a credible leave policy - not one that is going to appeal to actual leavers. They cant "outbrexit" the tories - never mind farage.

Remain is now the only logical position. Brexit is a massive drag on any hope of any sort of positive progress - its needs to get the fuck out of the way. The damage is done - the only deal is a shit deal that nobody wants - and no deal will be massively damaging and is just a longer, more disruptive route to the same shit deal after the UK gets schooled in the reality of international capitalism via a fucking over by the WTO. 
Housing, public services, poverty, inequality, the environment - massive red light flashing on all these areas.


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## SpackleFrog (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> But labour has been touting a version of leave - but committed leave voters dont buy it - and they dont but the tory version either - so they've gone to brexit party. Labour hasn't got a credible leave policy - not one that is going to appeal to actual leavers. They cant "outbrexit" the tories - never mind farage.



Not for a long time. In the 2017 GE Corbyn talked about a 'jobs first' Brexit with 'no new immigration controls' and did really well, but since around Christmas the 2nd ref noise has been louder than anything else. As far as most people are concerned - ie people who do watch/read news but not every day - Labour are a Remain party promising a second referendum. 

It's absolutely true that Labour have lost a lot of hardcore Remain voters who do want a clear anti-Brexit policy in these last two elections but they've also lost a lot of Leave voters, and that isn't because Leave voters think their version of leave is unconvincing, it's because they think Labour is a Remain party.


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## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

There is a massive loss of trust amongst some working class communities in the labour party - this goes back to Blair and brexit was a consequence of that. Corbyn has failed to make any real impact on reversing it. 
That battle needs to be won at community level - communities have been atomised, people are isolated - that is where the work needs to be done - via building co-operative, mutalist networks right down at grassroots level - stuff that actually achieves something. That is a long slog - but it absolutely needs to be done - some of this stuff is already happening but it needs much more priority. Basically its about tackling the long term fallout from thatchers decimation of w/class communtiys. (pet subject this - as its essentially what my job is)  
Winning over  demoralised, isloated, atomised and resentful working class voters by offering some lukewarm version of brexit that nobody believes in is utterly pointless and will just alienate the much bigger bloc of labour voters who support remain (many - most -  of whom are working class as well - especially amongst younger people) . 
I dont see how backing remain necessarily means abandoning working class people who voted leave - its a false and toxic dichotomy. Build solidarity and common purpose from the ground up - it is the only way forward. Brexit is just a massive and divisive  distraction from that.


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## SpackleFrog (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> There is a massive loss of trust amongst some working class communities in the labour party - this goes back to Blair and brexit was a consequence of that. Corbyn has failed to make any real impact on reversing it.



Well hang on, he was making some progress. He stopped making progress when the right wing of the PLP found an effective way to attack him on the issues of Brexit and anti-semitism. But he started off reasonably well.


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## kebabking (May 28, 2019)

The Corbynite Labour councillor - who lost his seat in the LE's - I know, who reckoned he'd knocked on 2,000 doors in the campaign and was sick of hearing the word 'brexit', entirely takes the view that _not one _previous Labour voter had who voted Leave still believed that Labour intended to respect the referendum result. Some still voted Labour at the LE's, some said they'd never return, some said they'd return once brexit was done, some said they'd simply stop voting and some said they'd vote for other parties, and some were rather rude - the big news however was that, to echo SpackleFrog, all of them believed that Labour was now a remain party, whatever artistic form of words it used to dance on the head of a pin. 

Lots, and lots of hostility to that - proper visceral feelings of betrayal.


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## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> Labour hasn't got a credible leave policy - not one that is going to appeal to actual leavers. They cant "outbrexit" the tories - never mind farage.


What is an "actual leaver"? No one is claiming they can, or should, "outbrexit" the tories people are saying there are longtime loyal Labour voters that support leave, and that these people are an electorally important constituency. 


Kaka Tim said:


> That battle needs to be won at community level - communities have been atomised, people are isolated - that is where the work needs to be done - via building co-operative, mutalist networks right down at grassroots level - stuff that actually achieves something. That is a long slog - but it absolutely needs to be done - some of this stuff is already happening but it needs much more priority.


How the hell are you going to do that when you've just told those communities that they don't count, that their views are wrong and so, once again, should be ignored?


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## Proper Tidy (May 28, 2019)

kebabking said:


> The Corbynite Labour councillor - who lost his seat in the LE's - I know, who reckoned he'd knocked on 2,000 doors in the campaign and was sick of hearing the word 'brexit', entirely takes the view that _not one _previous Labour voter had who voted Leave still believed that Labour intended to respect the referendum result. Some still voted Labour at the LE's, some said they'd never return, some said they'd return once brexit was done, some said they'd simply stop voting and some said they'd vote for other parties, and some were rather rude - the big news however was that, to echo SpackleFrog, all of them believed that Labour was now a remain party, whatever artistic form of words it used to dance on the head of a pin.
> 
> Lots, and lots of hostility to that - proper visceral feelings of betrayal.


Aye, from the people I know, they've somehow ended up in position that leave voters see LP as remain and remain voters see them as leave - agree with spacklefrog that in the former scenario, it's because the noise from the 2nd ref labour MPs (and here in Wales pretty much every AM and MP) is greater than the actual position (also tbf because it's a simpler message)


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## Proper Tidy (May 28, 2019)

Shared character of both is a lack of trust in labour's position I suppose


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## killer b (May 28, 2019)

It's a simpler message, but also Labour really fucked up their messaging. There's a faint trace of the drum they could have been loudly banging in their EU election manifesto, but it's barely been communicated, and when Corbyn has been interviewed he's just tetchily trotted out the same line he's been trotting out for a couple of years that sounds evasive and no-one who needs persuading believes.


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## Smokeandsteam (May 28, 2019)

IWCA post on the aftermath below:


25 years ago, the deputy leader of the Labour Party Roy Hattersley declared that the ‘working class would vote Labour whatever the party did.’ Strike one. 15 years later, Guardian columnist Nick Cohen insisted that ‘Europe votes fascist, we don’t’. Within twelve months the BNP would take close to a million votes in the European elections. Strike two.

A decade on, and almost to the day, Guardian columnist Martin Kettle would suggest Britain's current political climate is reminiscent of Weimar Germany, with the implication being that in opposing right wing populism the liberal left were taking the role of the ‘resistance’. Of course while appearing glamorous in hindsight, the ugly truth is that out of a population of 40 million as few as 200,000 were actively involved in the French Resistance, with the working class disproportionately represented.  As for the Weimar Republic analogy the less said about that the better, as the near decade long fight against the Brownshirts from 1924 onwards was conducted exclusively by the communist and to a lesser extent social democratic parties (see the 1932 Battle of Altona for what that could involve), with the middle classes and their parties either sitting it out or cheerleading for the other side. Strike three.

Flaunting the same lack of awareness, fellow Guardian columnist Gary Younge asserted just days before the Euro elections that the populist “electoral victories are largely but not exclusively the products of age-old prejudices: not because everyone who voted for them was racist, but because all the racists who did go the polls voted for them. The intensity of that racism is now growing as the victors use their podiums and dispatch boxes to amplify their bigotry by giving confidence and licence for people to spread their poison. Bigotry once embedded in a political culture is difficult to excise.” Indeed. After all, what other possible reason could there be for large swathes of any country’s population to resent and resist the impact of a new liberal driven globalisation but out and out prejudice? Strike four.

Now the liberal left has enjoyed cultural hegemony for the last forty years. Which meant for four decades a liberal agenda, that involved first and foremost the working class as a whole being kicked to the kerb, while at the same time amplifying and inflating the importance of every possible racial, sexual, gender and more recently faith based difference, has been zealously promoted with the assurance that one last push would lead to the sunlit uplands. But, as militant anti-fascism has long warned, what we have is the whirlwind being reaped instead. Accordingly, once the left tire of bullshitting each other that the Euro elections were in fact a tremendous victory and return to their day job of pointing the finger and apportioning blame to everyone else, ‘Do you ever think it might be you?’ is the first question the rest of us ought to put to them.


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## Mr Moose (May 28, 2019)

kebabking said:


> The Corbynite Labour councillor - who lost his seat in the LE's - I know, who reckoned he'd knocked on 2,000 doors in the campaign and was sick of hearing the word 'brexit', entirely takes the view that _not one _previous Labour voter had who voted Leave still believed that Labour intended to respect the referendum result. Some still voted Labour at the LE's, some said they'd never return, some said they'd return once brexit was done, some said they'd simply stop voting and some said they'd vote for other parties, and some were rather rude - the big news however was that, to echo SpackleFrog, all of them believed that Labour was now a remain party, whatever artistic form of words it used to dance on the head of a pin.
> 
> Lots, and lots of hostility to that - proper visceral feelings of betrayal.



Extraordinary this feeling that this is ‘betrayal’. Not being granted the Tory and Right wing media solution to the squabbling of two factions of elites is ‘betrayal’. About something most people gave nary a shit about 10 years ago.


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## gosub (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> But if those voters are voting on the basis of supporting brexit - then they are lost to labour anyway. But so  are the those who are voting on the basis of opposing brexit. The latter group can be won back - the former cant. Its shit - but labour is in a bind and there is no good outcome - just damage limitation.
> Labour has to go remain and reform and do its best to convince w/class brexit voters that their interests are served by  labour government's other policies.


I'll bite, what is the nature of this reform from within the EU of which you speak.?


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## kebabking (May 28, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> Extraordinary this feeling that this is ‘betrayal’. Not being granted the Tory and Right wing media solution to the squabbling of two factions of elites is ‘betrayal’. About something most people gave nary a shit about 10 years ago.



Woooooooooooosssshhhhhhhhhhhhh....

Again, remain bubble.

The hostility doesn't have it's basis in the remain/leave argument, it has its basis in the 'you asked me a question, I gave you an answer, and now you don't like that answer you're back-pedaling'.

It's a simple as that.

Of course it _now _is deeply entangled in the leave/remain argument, the bubbling culture war, the disconnect between a London focused party elite (sound familiar?) and a hinterland who feel not just not listened to but deliberately ignored, insulted and marginalised.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> Extraordinary this feeling that this is ‘betrayal’. Not being granted the Tory and Right wing media solution to the squabbling of two factions of elites is ‘betrayal’. About something most people gave nary a shit about 10 years ago.


They been betrayed, patronised and taken for granted by the LP for 40+ years, they can see exactly what Mason/Thornberry/Blairs crap is.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 28, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> They been betrayed, patronised and taken for granted by the LP for 40+ years, they can see exactly what Mason/Thornberry/Blairs crap is.



I’m merely noting how deep the feeling is to take such an utterly feeble prospect as Brexit and put such heart and soul into it.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Are you not reading what I and kebabking have posted? This another example of the long held (and entirely correct) belief that they are ignored and dismissed by the same people that have caused the damage their communities have suffered from.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 28, 2019)

kebabking said:


> Woooooooooooosssshhhhhhhhhhhhh....
> 
> Again, remain bubble.
> 
> ...



This is a bit vapid considering how it took nearly 30 years of wall to wall negativity to get people interested in the EU. It wasn’t just any question. It was the only one permitted.

What about that culture war, which is essentially the ruling class wishing to be free of any fetters and coopting working class nationalism to that cause?


----------



## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Your last few posts are an excellent example of this patronisation.
_
How dare you feel betrayed! You didn't even care about this issue until you were brainwashed into supporting it.*  
_
*Which conveniently ignores the widespread dislike of the EU that has been present from the start - the 1975 referendum and LP opposition to the EU never happened.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 28, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Your last few posts are an excellent example of this patronisation.
> _
> How dare you feel betrayed! You didn't even care about this issue until you were brainwashed into supporting it.*
> _
> *Which conveniently ignores the widespread dislike of the EU that has been present from the start - the 1975 referendum and LP opposition to the EU never happened.



You tend towards generalisation on this. There is not unequivocally one working class voice. Scotland clearly thought differently, working class BME voters were more in favour of Remain. Ultimately, without something else like a new mandate from a GE, the result should be honoured, even if weakly.

But there is no reason why it cannot be debated. What was patronising was to marketise everything so that the very means of existence become beyond reach. Not to disagree over this.


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> What is an "actual leaver"? No one is claiming they can, or should, "outbrexit" the tories people are saying there are longtime loyal Labour voters that support leave, and that these people are an electorally important constituency.
> How the hell are you going to do that when you've just told those communities that they don't count, that their views are wrong and so, once again, should be ignored?



But Labour cant adopt any sort of credible leave position that any leave voter will believe. all it would do is further alienate the majority of their voters who support remain. Its an unwinnable battle.
Which leads to the second point - yeah - its fucking shit and it will make it more  difficult. But the damage was done by people been asked to vote on something that cant be delivered. There is no good way out of this. The least shit path is for labour to go remain and then try and win back the trust of those who feel betrayed by that.
And yeah - the remain push from labour has been used by the anti-corbyn faction - but its also overwhelmingly the position of the membership - and most of the new voters who voted labour because of Corbyn.  
Going remain is the quickest way out of the fucking mess - take the hit and move on.  The present position means labour gets shot by both sides.
The only other alternative is that labour goes fully leave - which - as well being politically impossible for labour given the views of most of its mps,the membership and most of its supporters - would just lead them further into a quagmire.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Where is the debate? You've literally said that Labour leave voters are wrong to feel betrayed because they were not bothered about this issue 10 years ago. That's not a debate, that's you patronising and dismissing millions of people. 

EDIT: At Moose not KT.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> But Labour cant adopt any sort of credible leave position that any leave voter will believe. all it would do is further alienate the majority of their voters who support remain. Its an unwinnable battle.
> Which leads to the second point - yeah - its fucking shit and it will make it more  difficult. But the damage was done by people been asked to vote on something that cant be delivered. There is no good way out of this. The least shit path is for labour to go remain and then try and win back the trust of those who feel betrayed by that.
> ...
> Going remain is the quickest way out of the fucking mess - take the his and move on.  The present position means labour gets shot by both sides.


Again I ask for evidence? Where is the evidence that Labour cannot have a position that is palatable to enough Leave voters that they will stay with Labour.

Your position is effectively Mason's isn't it? A position that leads to Labour becoming the PS (France) or SPD (Germany), parties that are dying.


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

gosub said:


> I'll bite, what is the nature of this reform from within the EU of which you speak.?



Challenge the neo-liberal agenda (for which the UK  was always the biggest cheerleader) of the EU alongside like minded MEPs and government. Yeah- im not holding my breath either - but its a more credible position pretending that the EU is some cuddly, feel good club.
We are where we are. Brexit needs to be killed off before anything can be done. Its a toxic irrelevance.
I am now earning less for the same job i was doing 10 years ago. I see people begging everytime i leave my door. There isn't even a kids playground within  a mile of my house. You have to wait weeks to see a fucking doctor etc etc etc. Fucking fuck brexit -

this is the shit that needs sorting.


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Again I ask for evidence? Where is the evidence that Labour cannot have a position that is palatable to enough Leave voters that they will stay with Labour.
> 
> Your position is effectively Mason's isn't it? A position that leads to Labour becoming the PS (France) or SPD (Germany), parties that are dying.



because you would struggle to find a single leave voter who believes labour supports brexit. Please outline how they can be convinced labour does without destroying the party and losing half of it voters.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> because you would struggle to find a single leave voter who believes labour supports brexit. Please outline how they can be convinced labour does without destroying the party and losing half of it voters.


Argghh. Come on read what people are posting.


redsquirrel said:


> People don't vote on only one issue, the fact that Labour won (just) Ashfield shows that longtime Labour voters that want to Leave the EU can find LP that leans Remain palatable. But a LP that goes full on for Remain is a very different kettle of fish, something that some won't put up with.





Proper Tidy said:


> Depends what you mean by the past. 2017 voters, heavily remain. But what about typical labour voters for 15, 10, what about its traditional post war base, does labour just write them off


Labour still has 25%-33% of its support coming from Leave voters. They know that Labour leans towards Remain but they can still support a party that will at least attempt to accommodate them.


----------



## belboid (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> But Labour cant adopt any sort of credible leave position that any leave voter will believe.


two-thirds of leave voters didn't vote for the BP or UKIP last week. A few voted Labour, a few tory, but most stayed at home. They can still be convinced that Labour is at least _trying _on their behalf, not just ignoring them and considering them worthwhile collateral damage.


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> Challenge the neo-liberal agenda (for which the UK  was always the biggest cheerleader) of the EU alongside like minded MEPs and government. Yeah- im not holding my breath either - but its a more credible position pretending that the EU is some cuddly, feel good club.
> We are where we are. Brexit needs to be killed off before anything can be done. Its a toxic irrelevance.
> I am now earning less for the same job i was doing 10 years ago. I see people begging everytime i leave my door. There isn't even a kids playground within  a mile of my house. You have to wait weeks to see a fucking doctor etc etc etc. Fucking fuck brexit -
> 
> this is the shit that needs sorting.



I haven't seen a single party promote a single policy for the European Parliament in this election just gone, never mind talk about challenging the neoliberal agenda. Where is this pro Remain pro Reform movement/party going to come from?


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Labour still has 25%-33% of its support coming from Leave voters. They know that Labour leans towards Remain but they can still support a party that will at least attempt to accommodate them.



So does this mean you think its credible for labour to keep to its present policy? Its shedding votes to both sides - it has to go one way or the other. The fence sitting fudge was probably the least shit position (but still shit) for multiple reasons - but no more. All the polling and the Local and Euro votes show that.


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

belboid said:


> They can still be convinced that Labour is at least trying on their behalf, not just ignoring them and considering them worthwhile collateral damage.



How? "labour will negotiate a better deal than a tory brexit"?  
Any recent polling on how many leavers still support labour? 
The tory party is about to move to "no deal" - how can labour oppose that  (as they must and should) and still be seen by leavers as being on their side?
Labour needs to argue for remain and try and change people's minds - rather than pretending it will enact brexit in some hypothetical future where they are in government.
Ah - fuck - this is depressing ...


----------



## gosub (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> Challenge the neo-liberal agenda (for which the UK  was always the biggest cheerleader) of the EU alongside like minded MEPs and government. Yeah- im not holding my breath either - but its a more credible position pretending that the EU is some cuddly, feel good club.
> We are where we are. Brexit needs to be killed off before anything can be done. Its a toxic irrelevance.
> I am now earning less for the same job i was doing 10 years ago. I see people begging everytime i leave my door. There isn't even a kids playground within  a mile of my house. You have to wait weeks to see a fucking doctor etc etc etc. Fucking fuck brexit -
> 
> this is the shit that needs sorting.


SO Brexit needs to be killed off, so we can can stay in and help transform the EU away from being the type of thing the UK was the biggest cheer leader for..  Having a Commission President no one in the UK voted for might even come in handy


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

gosub said:


> SO Brexit needs to be killed off, so we can can stay in and help transform the EU away from being the type of thing the UK was the biggest cheer leader for..  Having a Commission President no one in the UK voted for might even come in handy



brexit needs to be killed off so real shit can be addressed. We don't vote for the president of the WTO or the IMF either.  Build fucking council houses and fund the NHS - stop fucking about with brexit. (labour's next election slogan?)


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> brexit needs to be killed off so real shit can be addressed. We don't vote for the president of the WTO or the IMF either.  Build fucking council houses and fund the NHS - stop fucking about with brexit. (labour's next election slogan?)



To kill it off you're gonna have to convince people a neoliberal regional trade block is a good idea. Don't you think that's sort of counter-intuitive?


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> To kill it off you're gonna have to convince people a neoliberal regional trade block is a good idea. Don't you think that's sort of counter-intuitive?



Its a better idea than being fucked over by the US, china and the EU via the IMF and WTO. Least shit option.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 28, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> To kill it off you're gonna have to convince people a neoliberal regional trade block is a good idea. Don't you think that's sort of counter-intuitive?


these days counter-intuitive no longer means perverse but good


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> Its a better idea than being fucked over by the US, china and the EU via the IMF and WTO. Least shit option.



Ahhhhhhh, lesser evilism, that's usually a great tactic.


----------



## brogdale (May 28, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> To kill it off you're gonna have to convince people a neoliberal regional trade block is a good idea. Don't you think that's sort of counter-intuitive?


tbf the folk actually killing it off are already well convinced.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> So does this mean you think its credible for labour to keep to its present policy? Its shedding votes to both sides - it has to go one way or the other. The fence sitting fudge was probably the least shit position (but still shit) for multiple reasons - but no more. All the polling and the Local and Euro votes show that.


How so? You keep saying this but you've not actually outlined why.

Leaving aside the political arguments, electorally Labour needs to at least keep it's Leave voters if it doesn't want to lose seats. Look at the seats I cited as examples, to go full on remain means losing Ashfield, perhaps even Don Valley and Bolsover(!). I agree any sort of social democratic leave policy is not going to happen but there needs to be enough given to Labour-leaning leave-leaning voters that they can feel able to vote for Labour, that there is at least some type of engagement and respect paid to them. Yes that means some sort of fudge which is going to be unpopular with lots but it keeps enough leave voters and remain voters in the tent that they have a chance of a majority government.

I'll ask a simple question - which seats are you gaining with your strategy? Considering that Ashfield is gone, Dudley North is gone, Newcastle-under-Lyme is questionable, even Don Valley and Bolsover are in the fight for your life category, (you are counting on the Tories and BP splitting each others vote) you need to be gaining some seats.


----------



## belboid (May 28, 2019)

I'm a bit shocked...but there is a good article in Tribune! 

Hold the Line


----------



## Mr Moose (May 28, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> Where is the debate? You've literally said that Labour leave voters are wrong to feel betrayed because they were not bothered about this issue 10 years ago. That's not a debate, that's you patronising and dismissing millions of people.
> 
> EDIT: At Moose not KT.



I’m not patronising people, but thanks for the lesson in it. I’m lamenting that this phoney Brexit drivel is the thing that breaks Labour.

You are comfortable with it because it fits your analysis that it threatens neoliberalism. I don’t agree, in fact far from it. It’s not patronising to say so and it’s not even patronising to ask again. Patronising would be to think you never can because the working class can’t be asked twice, like they have never experienced political disappointment or challenge.

I don’t see that the UK can, with confidence, continue in the EU. But a shithouse Tory Brexit should be resisted, not least of all because it is another win for them. Compromise is for everyone in this.


----------



## chilango (May 28, 2019)

If Labour go "full remain" they're fucked. It'll finish them.


----------



## brogdale (May 28, 2019)

chilango said:


> If Labour go "full remain" they're fucked. It'll finish them.


Wait till they go revoke!


----------



## Mr Moose (May 28, 2019)

chilango said:


> If Labour go "full remain" they're fucked. It'll finish them.



Yes, until they are not. There are two large parties for a reason.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 28, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Wait till they go revoke!



Would probably be more popular than a second referendum position to be fair. Less fucking about.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 28, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> To kill it off you're gonna have to convince people a neoliberal regional trade block is a good idea. Don't you think that's sort of counter-intuitive?



A lot of people seem convinced that a trade deal with the US that opens the NHS up to the market is a good idea. Certainly what Nige wants. The notion that we want these deals is almost unchallenged in mainstream Brexit discourse.

But yes, hard sell the EU right now.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> A lot of people seem convinced that a trade deal with the US that opens the NHS up to the market is a good idea.


What absolute and utter bunkum. The marketisation of the NHS (and other public services) is incredibly unpopular, poll after poll has shown that. That is why the marketisation that has taken place has had to be undercover of "austerity" etc.


Mr Moose said:


> I’m not patronising people, but thanks for the lesson in it. I’m lamenting that this phoney Brexit drivel is the thing that breaks Labour.


No you are telling people they are wrong to _feel_ betrayed, because the care about this issue. If you don't understand why that is patronising then I don't know what to say. This is as crazy as your nonsense that Corbyn needs to go so the Labour Party can move leftwards.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 28, 2019)

People didn’t used to care about it much apart from cranks like Farage, and still don’t. It’s a proxy for other stuff.

This is why trying to fight it by making a case for remain would be ineffective. Where we’re going to we don’t need reason.


----------



## gosub (May 28, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> A lot of people seem convinced that a trade deal with the US that opens the NHS up to the market is a good idea. Certainly what Nige wants. The notion that we want these deals is almost unchallenged in mainstream Brexit discourse.
> 
> But yes, hard sell the EU right now.


----------



## kebabking (May 28, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> A lot of people seem convinced that a trade deal with the US that opens the NHS up to the market is a good idea.



Name twelve of them.


----------



## Old Spark (May 28, 2019)

Battens Ukip fruitcakes  join Nigels milkshakes 


'Go home!': Brexit Party supporters heckle British-Sikh MEP


----------



## Mr Moose (May 28, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> What absolute and utter bunkum. The marketisation of the NHS (and other public services) is incredibly unpopular, poll after poll has shown that. That is why the marketisation that has taken place has had to be undercover of "austerity" etc.
> No you are telling people they are wrong to _feel_ betrayed, because the care about this issue. If you don't understand why that is patronising then I don't know what to say. This is as stupid as your nonsense that Corbyn needs to go so the Labour Party can move leftwards.



As an aside, do you ever post without trying to rubbish someone you disagree with? 

The marketisation of the NHS has been happening despite opposition. I’m glad you can rule it out as a consequence of a headlong rush into a US trade deal.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 28, 2019)

kebabking said:


> Name twelve of them.



Lots of people want a trade deal with the US. That is a risk.


----------



## kebabking (May 28, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> Lots of people want a trade deal with the US. That is a risk.



That's not what you said.


----------



## belboid (May 28, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> Lots of people want a trade deal with the US. That is a risk.


We've got a trade deal with the US.

Yes, of course there is a risk of having a really shit such deal - the EU tried to get us to pass one. But any such move can be blocked, like that one was.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> The marketisation of the NHS has been happening despite opposition. I’m glad you can rule it out as a consequence of a headlong rush into a US trade deal.


Can you maintain a consistent point. This is a different claim to your previous one.


----------



## DexterTCN (May 28, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> Lots of people want a trade deal with the US. That is a risk.


Yup.  Part of the current discussions are US access to the UK NHS (and other) IT systems.


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 28, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Ahhhhhhh, lesser evilism, that's usually a great tactic.



you have a better one?


----------



## Poi E (May 28, 2019)

DexterTCN said:


> Yup.  Part of the current discussions are US access to the UK NHS (and other) IT systems.



Only because the US will want to firewall the fuckers. They've heard of Capita.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> you have a better one?


Have you read the Tribune piece belboid posted? I'm not a social democrat and so it would not be my preferred option. But from within the LP framework the piece (making many of the same points that have been made on this thread) presents a considered position that makes more sense both politically and electorally than the full remain option.


> This tension, over which coalition the party wants to build, underlies the debate in Labour today about whether to embrace a second referendum. Is Labour now fundamentally a progressive party, which means leaving behind workers in some of the most deprived parts of Britain to chase the votes of ‘progressive’ Tories and Liberal Democrats in Remain-voting areas? Or is it a socialist party, which means trying to unite workers across the culture war divide on the basis that a Labour government would improve their lives?





> And on the subject of risks, questions should be asked of second referendum supporters too. Is it not a risk to write off so many areas which have voted Labour for generations, and in which the party has deep roots, for voters who are more politically transient? Is this risk not increased by the fact that a majority of Labour’s seats, and a super-majority of their target seats, are in Leave-voting areas?


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 28, 2019)

Mr Moose said:


> A lot of people seem convinced that a trade deal with the US that opens the NHS up to the market is a good idea. Certainly what Nige wants. The notion that we want these deals is almost unchallenged in mainstream Brexit discourse.
> 
> But yes, hard sell the EU right now.



I don't know why you've quoted my post, cos you've not engaged with it at all.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 28, 2019)

You don’t need over half the vote to win a parliamentary seat, few of them are won with such a high percentage. Thus it is not necessarily the greatest concern for labour if an area is say up to 60% leave as they may already have this sort of number opposing them (conversely this also means that it is right to worry about the Brexit party if they’re pulling 40% in some areas, but that vote probably won’t stand in a GE).


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 28, 2019)

Kaka Tim said:


> you have a better one?



Yes - how about a Brexit where we take the key infrastructure of the economy into public ownership, so we can plan for people's needs and give them decent schools and food and healthcare and create green jobs? How about promising to scrap the hostile environment and offer mutual free movement to the EU, without the posted workers directive? How about saying we won't allow the NHS to be pillaged by multi nationals? How about saying we will collaborate and co-operate with left govts in the EU and around the world?

Why do we always have to insist that radical change is impossible?


----------



## gosub (May 29, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Yes - how about a Brexit where we take the key infrastructure of the economy into public ownership, so we can plan for people's needs and give them decent schools and food and healthcare and create green jobs? How about promising to scrap the hostile environment and offer mutual free movement to the EU, without the posted workers directive? How about saying we won't allow the NHS to be pillaged by multi nationals? How about saying we will collaborate and co-operate with left govts in the EU and around the world?
> 
> Why do we always have to insist that radical change is impossible?


Take 4 bank holidays and think again.


----------



## Raheem (May 29, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> Yes - how about a Brexit where we take the key infrastructure of the economy into public ownership, so we can plan for people's needs and give them decent schools and food and healthcare and create green jobs? How about promising to scrap the hostile environment and offer mutual free movement to the EU, without the posted workers directive? How about saying we won't allow the NHS to be pillaged by multi nationals? How about saying we will collaborate and co-operate with left govts in the EU and around the world?


Nothing not to support there, and there are lots of other positive things we could do. But it's what we wouldn't be able to do that makes it tricky. How about also preserving some sort of manufacturing sector in the UK, for instance?


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 29, 2019)

Raheem said:


> Nothing not to support there, and there are lots of other positive things we could do. But it's what we wouldn't be able to do that makes it tricky. How about also preserving some sort of manufacturing sector in the UK, for instance?



No, that's the only way we could preserve a manufacturing sector. Without nationalisation, planning and democratic worker control its fucked. Look at Honda, British steel. What's the answer?

If we continue on the same economic model of the last 40 years it will all disappear.


----------



## Jeremiah18.17 (May 29, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> No, that's the only way we could preserve a manufacturing sector. Without nationalisation, planning and democratic worker control its fucked. Look at Honda, British steel. What's the answer?
> 
> If we continue on the same economic model of the last 40 years it will all disappear.



If Britain continues to operate in the context of a globalised market economy, much of the manufactiring base is finished.  If Britain attempts some kind of autarchic self-supporting market economy with widespread state ownership, it is likely much of the manufacturing base is finished. 
It is almost like in a modern interlinked world facing interlinked economic, social and environmental crises, the solutions are global and “socialism in one country” and nationalism are as much of a dead end as they have ever been.......


----------



## Artaxerxes (May 29, 2019)

Jeremiah18.17 said:


> If Britain continues to operate in the context of a globalised market economy, much of the manufactiring base is finished.  If Britain attempts some kind of autarchic self-supporting market economy with widespread state ownership, it is likely much of the manufacturing base is finished.
> It is almost like in a modern interlinked world facing interlinked economic, social and environmental crises, the solutions are global and “socialism in one country” and nationalism are as much of a dead end as they have ever been.......



This.

The global trade network and interlinking of customs and trade standards means that no country is ever going to be able to stand by itself and be truly 'sovereign'. 

Unless it's North Korea, and even they are propped up by China as a fuck you to the Americans.

Besides the idea that we leave the EU and suddenly socialism can happen isn't paying much attention to the state and organisation of socialism in this country.


----------



## gosub (May 29, 2019)

Artaxerxes said:


> This.
> 
> The global trade network and interlinking of customs and trade standards means that no country is ever going to be able to stand by itself and be truly 'sovereign'.
> 
> ...


But we've known that for decades.  Which is why it's odd v little of the "discussion" has mentioned the service sector which we  transitioned to mitigate against that... Changing our relationship with EU will have  a big impact on that.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 29, 2019)

Artaxerxes said:


> Besides the idea that we leave the EU and suddenly socialism can happen isn't paying much attention to the state and organisation of socialism in this country.


That would be a very silly idea but is anyone, either on U75 or wider afield, suggesting it


----------



## SpackleFrog (May 29, 2019)

Jeremiah18.17 said:


> If Britain continues to operate in the context of a globalised market economy, much of the manufactiring base is finished.  If Britain attempts some kind of autarchic self-supporting market economy with widespread state ownership, it is likely much of the manufacturing base is finished.
> It is almost like in a modern interlinked world facing interlinked economic, social and environmental crises, the solutions are global and “socialism in one country” and nationalism are as much of a dead end as they have ever been.......



Don't think I was advocating Socialism in One Country, ta.


----------



## Raheem (May 30, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> No, that's the only way we could preserve a manufacturing sector. Without nationalisation, planning and democratic worker control its fucked.


At some point in the future, perhaps. But taking the wrong decisions now just means there will be nothing left to fuck or to save.


----------



## Supine (May 30, 2019)

I don't see how democratic worker control is going to make any industries more viable. 

Our language, stabity (Lol), high tech industries and educated workforce are the positive things that keep business afloat in the UK.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 30, 2019)

_Viable, keep business afloat_ - lovely. _We're all in it together!_

Viable for who?


----------



## Poi E (May 30, 2019)

Supine said:


> Our language, stabity (Lol), high tech industries and educated workforce are the positive things that keep business afloat in the UK.



The profits made by capital keeps "businesses afloat" (whatever that means-successful extraction of surplus value I suppose.)


----------



## redsquirrel (May 30, 2019)

The above rather neatly illustrates what the LP moving from a class/social to a _progressive_ coalition would mean.

EDIT: Not Poi E's post the ones preceeding it.


----------



## kabbes (May 30, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> The above rather neatly illustrates what the LP moving from a class/social to a _progressive_ coalition would mean.


Why do you hate things that float, redsquirrel ?


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## Bahnhof Strasse (May 30, 2019)

Jeremiah18.17 said:


> If Britain continues to operate in the context of a globalised market economy, much of the manufactiring base is finished.  If Britain attempts some kind of autarchic self-supporting market economy with widespread state ownership, it is likely much of the manufacturing base is finished.
> It is almost like in a modern interlinked world facing interlinked economic, social and environmental crises, the solutions are global and “socialism in one country” and nationalism are as much of a dead end as they have ever been.......



Someone's not read the narrative...

Airbus now wants to remain in UK regardless of Brexit outcome



> European planemaker Airbus wants to stay in the UK whatever the outcome of Brexit, as the country is “a very important pillar” for the company, new CEO Guillaume Faury said on Tuesday (21 May), amending negative comments made by his predecessor.


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## Poi E (May 30, 2019)

Whaddya know. Capital still can make a buck post-Brexit. Brexit may seem seismic to some but it's a regulatory issue for capital.


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## kabbes (May 30, 2019)

Poi E said:


> Whaddya know. Capital still can make a buck post-Brexit. Brexit may seem seismic to some but it's a regulatory issue for capital.


Indeed, for the financial services, Brexit is already in the rearview mirror.  Their solutions have been implemented already because we were due to leave at the end of March and nobody was going to be unprepared for that deadline.  “It’s just a regulatory issue” is about as good a description of that process as I’ve seen.


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## Poi E (May 30, 2019)

Capital you move in seconds, plant in days, shedding people in weeks. It's all pretty fast.


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## Jeremiah18.17 (May 30, 2019)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> Someone's not read the narrative...
> 
> Airbus now wants to remain in UK regardless of Brexit outcome


The key words there are “regardless of the Brexit outcome”.  Airbus’s decision merely indicates that in the short to medium term at least, the outcome of Brexit or no Brexit will be turned to the advantage of Capital.  Who knew?


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## Smokeandsteam (May 31, 2019)

Superb article by Wolfgang Streeck on the crisis of the European left highlighting 4 reasons why its on the retreat almost everywhere:

Four Reasons the European Left Lost


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## isvicthere? (May 31, 2019)

No option for who l voted for: PSOE.


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## SpackleFrog (May 31, 2019)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Superb article by Wolfgang Streeck on the crisis of the European left highlighting 4 reasons why its on the retreat almost everywhere:
> 
> Four Reasons the European Left Lost



Not usually a huge fan of Streeck but that's great, thanks for posting.


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## redsquirrel (May 31, 2019)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Superb article by Wolfgang Streeck on the crisis of the European left highlighting 4 reasons why its on the retreat almost everywhere:
> 
> Four Reasons the European Left Lost


Cheers for that.
This bit is worth stressing 


> Defending democracy is always a good thing. But in joining the fight, the Left could at least have pointed out that democracy is not just mobilizing progressive voters for a powerless parliament. It also means provisions for local government autonomy, for collective bargaining and trade union representation, for workers’ voice on the shop floor and on the boards of large firms, for a public property regime conducive to high public investment, and a truly pluralist media. It appears unlikely that here the Greens could be reliable allies.


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## treelover (May 31, 2019)

> In particular, any critical discussion of the EU’s central social policy — the free movement of labor between the now economically extremely different member countries — is strictly avoided, combined with hints of sympathy for open borders generally, including those with the outside world. This does nothing but validate the image spread by the Greens and the center-left middle-class parties of Europe being mainly about young people traveling without border controls and not needing to change money.



Saying the unsayable, very very difficult to raise these views at any left gathering such as The World Transformed, certainly not the liberal left type ones.


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## treelover (May 31, 2019)

It’s time Corbyn reflected his own party, and opposed Brexit | Phil Wilson

here is an article from a LP MP, Phil Wilson, which takes no lesson onboard,


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## Smokeandsteam (Jun 1, 2019)

treelover said:


> It’s time Corbyn reflected his own party, and opposed Brexit | Phil Wilson
> 
> here is an article from a LP MP, Phil Wilson, which takes no lesson onboard,



Wilson, Mason and others seem to see the path to power being to join a three way fight for the 48% remain vote. 

But the problem Wilson identifies for Labour being pro-leave - out flanked by the BP - is precisely the same problem it would have with the LD’s being pro remain. I’ve said for over a year that the chickens would come home to roost for labour due to its abject failure to set out a strategic plan on Brexit and its lack of ambition to lead on this issue. The problem is even more severe now because whatever position it adopts will prompt deep division


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## Proper Tidy (Jun 1, 2019)

Well this is it. They've fucked themselves, maintaining their position still seems least worst option.

Tbh whatever happens with leaving or remaining in EU, if end result of this is that Tories and Labour critically wounded for a while then that'll do me, see what happens in the space


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## agricola (Jun 1, 2019)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Wilson, Mason and others seem to see the path to power being to join a three way fight for the 48% remain vote.
> 
> But the problem Wilson identifies for Labour being pro-leave - out flanked by the BP - is precisely the same problem it would have with the LD’s being pro remain. I’ve said for over a year that the chickens would come home to roost for labour due to its abject failure to set out a strategic plan on Brexit and its lack of ambition to lead on this issue. The problem is even more severe now because whatever position it adopts will prompt deep division



The most annoying thing about it is the failure to explain why the party has taken this stance, not the position itself (which is the only sensible one to take tbh).  

Corbyn and the rest of them should have been banging on repeatedly about how much of a bad idea a second referendum ran by this Government would be, and how daft a concept the "Brexit Party" is - with its twelve members, charging people to attend rallies, £25 to be a "registered supporter" and no actual policies.  He is right to point to decades of neglect causing this vote, and right to actually try to heal this entirely false leave/remain division that is increasingly being pushed out.  He has to explain this much better than he has been.

The thing that maddens me the most is this is exactly the sort of failure - of not explaining a political position that is sensible and would have been easy to explain - that probably cost them a win in 2017, over defence and Trident replacement (in which a random audience member articulated his policy better in a sentence than he did during his 30 minutes of audience questions).


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## Poi E (Jun 1, 2019)

What is Labour's reason for supporting nukes?


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## kebabking (Jun 1, 2019)

Poi E said:


> What is Labour's reason for supporting nukes?



Officially?

Bargaining chip in multilateral nuclear disarmament talks.

Unofficially it's because the electorate don't trust CND members who go on cycling tours of Soviet dominated East Germany.


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## belboid (Jun 1, 2019)

kebabking said:


> Officially?
> 
> Bargaining chip in multilateral nuclear disarmament talks.
> 
> Unofficially it's because of Unite members' jobs.


cfy


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## kebabking (Jun 1, 2019)

kebabking said:


> Officially?
> 
> Bargaining chip in multilateral nuclear disarmament talks.
> 
> Unofficially it's because the electorate don't trust CND members who go on cycling tours of Soviet dominated East Germany.





belboid said:


> cfy



Oh yes, I remember.

Build (and pay for) four 19,000 ton submarines to keep the union happy, but never put them to sea to keep Corbyn happy.

Spectacular.


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## Poi E (Jun 2, 2019)

There's jobs in decommissioning Europe's second most dangerous industrial building at Sellafield until 2120 (and probably much longer after that.) And then the rest of the site.


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## brogdale (Jun 3, 2019)

Ian Warren's 'dominant swing' Euro Election map. Light blue ain't Brexshit party...check the key.


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## SpackleFrog (Jun 3, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Ian Warren's 'dominant swing' Euro Election map. Light blue ain't Brexshit party...check the key.
> 
> View attachment 173204



That's intelligent AND beautiful 

Tory members might want Brexit, Tory voters not so keen  Bring on the destruction of the Tory party?


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## Gerry1time (Jun 3, 2019)

SpackleFrog said:


> That's intelligent AND beautiful



and terrifying! The Lib Dems aren't a big gene pool as a party these days, and they never were that much of one even before Nick Clegg et al turned up and fucked them over. If they won that many seats, the number of complete numpties sitting in parliament would be a sight to behold...


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## redsquirrel (Jun 4, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Ian Warren's 'dominant swing' Euro Election map. Light blue ain't Brexshit party...check the key


Which again backs up the point that a number of us have been making, the Lab->LD swing will take votes it will not result in that many seats changing hands.


Gerry1time said:


> and terrifying! The Lib Dems aren't a big gene pool as a party these days, and they never were that much of one even before Nick Clegg et al turned up and fucked them over. If they won that many seats, the number of complete numpties sitting in parliament would be a sight to behold...


That is swing not the vote. The Tories/Lab would still win the vast majority of those light blue seats.


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## Gerry1time (Jun 4, 2019)

redsquirrel said:


> That is swing not the vote. The Tories/Lab would still win the vast majority of those light blue seats.



I know, I was reflecting on the implications of the trend.


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## kabbes (Jun 4, 2019)

brogdale said:


> Ian Warren's 'dominant swing' Euro Election map. Light blue ain't Brexshit party...check the key.
> 
> View attachment 173204


That gets much less interesting when you consider that almost all the Brexit vote was likely a swing from UKIP (who received almost the same as the BP vote last time round and were wiped out this), thus making it unsurprising that most of the swing from Con and Lab would be to Lib Dem.  What it’s hiding is the swing from Con and Lab to UKIP in the first place.  Logically, that must be bigger than the swing from Con to LibDem this time round because UKIP did better last time than LD did this time.


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## Pickman's model (Jun 4, 2019)

Gerry1time said:


> and terrifying! The Lib Dems aren't a big gene pool as a party these days, and they never were that much of one even before Nick Clegg et al turned up and fucked them over. If they won that many seats, the number of complete numpties sitting in parliament would be a sight to behold...


There's at least 640 numpties in parliament now


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## kabbes (Jun 4, 2019)

Let’s not forget this from earlier, which shows where the 2017 voters went.  It clearly shows that the 2017 Tories overwhelmingly swung to Brexit Party





killer b said:


> Ashcroft has some figures about where votes moved between parties and the like here - click through for more.


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## kabbes (Jun 4, 2019)

I hadn’t noticed before, but the above also shows that a large swing of 2017 Labour voters was to non-voter (Lab got 40% in 2017 but only 34% of 2019 voters had voted Lab in 2017).  Probably even larger than their swing to LD.


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## hot air baboon (Jun 5, 2019)




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