# Apple is betting the farm on a VR headset



## David Clapson (Jun 5, 2022)

"Apple looks to its first headset for next breakthrough product"
Subscribe to read | Financial Times No paywall archive.ph

This will be fun to watch. Is it a sign of the end times? Will it take down Apple and trigger a massive crash of tech stocks? I can hardly wait. I'd love to be in the meetings where they're persuading themselves that a VR headset will be as big as the smart phone.


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## Raheem (Jun 5, 2022)

David Clapson said:


> "Apple looks to its first headset for next breakthrough product"
> Subscribe to read | Financial Times No paywall archive.ph
> 
> This will be fun to watch. Is it a sign of the end times? Will it take down Apple and trigger a massive crash of tech stocks? I can hardly wait. I'd love to be in the meetings where they're persuading themselves that a VR headset will be as big as the smart phone.


Is it really betting the farm, or has it spotted an fairly easy way to cut Meta down to size?


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## yield (Jun 5, 2022)

Billionaires See VR as a Way to Avoid Radical Social Change
02.15.2021
Tech oligarchs are encouraging the creation of virtual worlds as a cheap way to avoid problems in the real one.


> The future of virtual reality is far more than just video games. Silicon Valley sees the creation of virtual worlds as the ultimate free-market solution to a political problem. In a world of increasing wealth inequality, environmental disaster, and political instability, why not sell everyone a device that whisks them away to a virtual world free of pain and suffering?
> 
> Tech billionaires aren’t shy about sharing this. “Some people read this the wrong way and react incorrectly to it. The promise of VR is to make the world you wanted. It is not possible, on Earth, to give everyone all that they would want. Not everyone can have Richard Branson’s private island,” Doom co-creator and former CTO of Oculus John Carmack told Joe Rogan during a 2020 interview. “People react negatively to any talk of economics, but it is resource allocation. You have to make decisions about where things go. Economically, you can deliver a lot more value to a lot of people in the virtual sense.”





> Virtual reality is an attractive escape, but it’s not a solution to the world’s ills. The problems of the real world will persist beyond the borders of the metaverse created by companies such as Epic, Valve, and Facebook. Without decisive and radical action, our planet will continue to burn, the gap between the rich and poor will grow, and totalitarian political movements will flourish. All while some of us are plugged into a virtual world.
> 
> Worse, the virtual world will be one owned and controlled by the companies that create them. If you want a picture of the future, imagine a Facebook-branded set of VR goggles strapped to an emaciated human face—forever.


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## 8ball (Jun 5, 2022)

Raheem said:


> Is it really betting the farm, or has it spotted an fairly easy way to cut Meta down to size?



Meta are pretty good at creating their own problems so far.


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## AverageJoe (Jun 6, 2022)

Tbh. It looks the metaverse is finally coming after a few false starts, so being #1 in headsets is probably a bright idea.

Also...









						How to Make Money in the Metaverse | Earn Money From Metaverse Real Estate
					

A Begginers Guide: How To Make Money With The Metaverse In 2022




					makeanapplike.com
				




If you're an early adopter and missed bitcoin then maybe you'd be interested in this (or at least the ideas)

Personally I think buying a big piece of Metaverse land and turning it into a venue could possibly be a good investment. Just look at ABBA and the virtual gigs on Fortnite.


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## David Clapson (Jun 6, 2022)

I don't think headsets for everyday wear will ever take off, unless they aren't really headsets.  The FT piece says: "researchers at Citi expect that 1bn people — roughly the number of iPhone users today — will be wearing headsets by 2030".  I think that could only happen if the headset function was distributed over several components; ordinary looking specs with sensors and displays/retinal projectors, an earpiece with speaker and microphone, and a body-worn base station with processors, battery, camera, storage, phone, wifi, bluetooth and more sensors. It could be in a pendant or clipped to clothing.


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## 8ball (Jun 6, 2022)

David Clapson said:


> I don't think headsets for everyday wear will ever take off, unless they aren't really headsets.  The FT piece says: "researchers at Citi expect that 1bn people — roughly the number of iPhone users today — will be wearing headsets by 2030".  I think that could only happen if the headset function was distributed over several components; ordinary looking specs with sensors and displays/retinal projectors, an earpiece with speaker and microphone, and a body-worn base station with processors, battery, camera, storage, phone, wifi, bluetooth and more sensors. It could be in a pendant or clipped to clothing.



I don't expect the amount of hardware you actually wear on your face will be very much for much longer.


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## pseudonarcissus (Jun 6, 2022)

but what is the application beyond on-line gaming? (which I don't do, excepting the guardian quick crossword and Wordle...I'm not sure it would add much to those)
I remember playing with this in 1992 in the Ministry of Defence, looking at VR control rooms on warships...I'm not sure that there's been much improvement since those days, except refresh speed...and I'm not sure there have been non-gaming applications. I know gaming is big...but surely not that big when Apple won't get a dominant market position.


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## David Clapson (Jun 6, 2022)

The usual pattern is for Apple to enter a market by improving on something which another company has already launched. So if Apple is to have a headset by autumn, the precursor to it should already be on sale. Where is it?


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## David Clapson (Jun 6, 2022)

pseudonarcissus said:


> but what is the application beyond on-line gaming? (which I don't do, excepting the guardian quick crossword and Wordle...I'm not sure it would add much to those)
> I remember playing with this in 1992 in the Ministry of Defence, looking at VR control rooms on warships...I'm not sure that there's been much improvement since those days, except refresh speed...and I'm not sure there have been non-gaming applications. I know gaming is big...but surely not that big when Apple won't get a dominant market position.


Wut?? Augmented reality has so many compelling applications for use when just walking around.


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## pseudonarcissus (Jun 6, 2022)

David Clapson said:


> Wut?? Augmented reality has so many compelling applications for use when just walking around.



that gave me a migraine 

I remain to be convinced


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## David Clapson (Jun 6, 2022)

I'm not sure anyone has identified a killer app yet. There could be substantial niche markets in tourism, translation, education, training and security Augmented reality - Wikipedia. But where's the killer app?? I spent ages trying to think of one a long time ago. I think it will have to be sold niche by niche.


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## pseudonarcissus (Jun 6, 2022)

David Clapson said:


> I'm not sure anyone has identified a killer app yet. There could be substantial niche markets in tourism, translation, education, training and security Augmented reality - Wikipedia. But where's the killer app?? I spent ages trying to think of one a long time ago. I think it will have to be sold niche by niche.


imagine if we all found ourselves locked in a VR version of the Albert every evening...


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## 8ball (Jun 6, 2022)

David Clapson said:


> I'm not sure anyone has identified a killer app yet. There could be substantial niche markets in tourism, translation, education, training and security Augmented reality - Wikipedia. But where's the killer app?? I spent ages trying to think of one a long time ago. I think it will have to be sold niche by niche.



It will be led by gaming, with most likely separate enterprise platforms with an increasing overlap emerging over time.


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## WhyLikeThis (Jun 6, 2022)

Mapping could be excellent, satnavs, wandering around town and hill walking. The Ordnance Survey app has AR already integrating that into some specs would be ace.


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## David Clapson (Jun 6, 2022)

Many of the proposed VR/AR apps are fundamentally anti-social, because they cut you off from other people. We need shared apps for use by groups. For example, you could have a sort of Gogglebox experience by watching a TV programme with your friends while you're all at home alone. One of you could be on holiday or at a gig or whatever, and your friends and family can share the experience with you.  Kind of video conferencing, but socially, and on stilts. It could be good for kids to share experiences with their parents, and to get help with their homework.


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## pseudonarcissus (Jun 6, 2022)

WhyLikeThis said:


> Mapping could be excellent, satnavs, wandering around town and hill walking. The Ordnance Survey app has AR already integrating that into some specs would be ace.


it'll be great for pickpockets


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## 8ball (Jun 6, 2022)

pseudonarcissus said:


> that gave me a migraine
> 
> I remain to be convinced



That's very like the stuff that was on telly about "the information superhighway" in the 1990s.

Everything jangly and whizzy and cluttered.
I can see apps that remove advertising from the physical environment being more popular than ones that add it.


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## danski (Jun 6, 2022)

David Clapson said:


> . One of you could be on holiday or at a gig or whatever, and your friends and family can share the experience with you.


Live streaming a gig? I imagine concert promoters will make sure this doesn’t happen.


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## Shippou-Sensei (Jun 6, 2022)

pseudonarcissus said:


> it'll be great for pickpockets


What's left to steal when your phone is strapped to your face and you only pay for stuff using facebucks?


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## skyscraper101 (Jun 6, 2022)

It’s got a lot of potential if they can design a headset which doesn’t totally suck balls.

I owned an Oculus and loved it except for the fact it was heavy AF and uncomfortable to wear after like 15 minutes. A proper nice design and some decent apps and I’ll be right back into VR again.


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## souljacker (Jun 6, 2022)

David Clapson said:


> I'm not sure anyone has identified a killer app yet. There could be substantial niche markets in tourism, translation, education, training and security Augmented reality - Wikipedia. But where's the killer app?? I spent ages trying to think of one a long time ago. I think it will have to be sold niche by niche.


The killer app will be porn. I can pretty much guarantee it.


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## kabbes (Jun 6, 2022)

The mobile internet has already led to a lot of psychosocial problems, with devices being designed to take your attention away from real-world human contact.  The result is both distress and better access to control levers by those with power over the devices.  My guess is that VR will accelerate even further down that path.  I worry for where it leads.  Humans are not just brains in jars, they are embodied beings evolved to live in concrete social contexts.  Removing the embodied nature of social contact must have ramifications.


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## skyscraper101 (Jun 6, 2022)

Won't be until 2023 anyway









						Another Report Says Apple's AR/VR Headset Delayed Until Next Year, Preview at WWDC Unlikely
					

Apple has been forced to delay the launch of its long-rumored AR/VR headset until next year due to thermal issues related to computing power with the...




					www.macrumors.com


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## 8ball (Jun 6, 2022)

danski said:


> Live streaming a gig? I imagine concert promoters will make sure this doesn’t happen.



They seem fine about it so far.


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## 8ball (Jun 6, 2022)

kabbes said:


> The mobile internet has already led to a lot of psychosocial problems, with devices being designed to take your attention away from real-world human contact.  The result is both distress and better access to control levers by those with power over the devices.  My guess is that VR will accelerate even further down that path.  I worry for where it leads.  Humans are not just brains in jars, they are embodied beings evolved to live in concrete social contexts.  Removing the embodied nature of social contact must have ramifications.



VR is a more embodied experience than playing a flat screen game.


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## kabbes (Jun 6, 2022)

8ball said:


> VR is a more embodied experience than playing a flat screen game.


I couldn’t give a monkeys about what it does to gaming.


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## DotCommunist (Jun 6, 2022)

yield said:


> Billionaires See VR as a Way to Avoid Radical Social Change
> 02.15.2021
> Tech oligarchs are encouraging the creation of virtual worlds as a cheap way to avoid problems in the real one.


Every sci fi story about such an idea ever has shown it to be a fucking misery, even Red Dwarfs Better than Life while done amusingly portrays it as extremely fucked up.


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## pseudonarcissus (Jun 6, 2022)

kabbes said:


> I couldn’t give a monkeys about what it does to gaming.


Sudoku could be revolutionised


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## AverageJoe (Jun 6, 2022)

8ball said:


> They seem fine about it so far.



Especially if they have some of the rights. 

Your favourite band is playing in Brazil. Pay a fiver, slip on your headset and be at the gig itself. Instead of playing to 30,000 people you're playing to 1 billion people. 

Kerching.


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## elbows (Jun 6, 2022)

Its nothing remotely close to betting the farm on this stuff.

None of the big tech companies can afford to ignore the possibility that this stuff will become a very big thing, but we've already seen that this is not something that happens quickly, it takes many years and there can and will be plenty of missteps along the way.

Even when Apples first proper device in this area is actually ready to launch, it will take ages to find out how big this stuff might eventually become. Especially as the first device will likely still be clunky in some ways, and because it will probably be aimed more at developers and early adopters in order to deal with the 'chicken and egg' problem of needing content/apps for the platform to be available in good quantity and quality in order for the thing to eventually be really compelling to normal customers.

If Apple is able to work its magic in this area then I expect it to be down to stuff we've seen before with other products - they dont need to be first or even ridiculously innovative, they just need to go for a somewhat different mix of compromises compared to the competition, and find the right mix that makes the stuff compelling. And they have to take advantage of their existing customer base, platforms, apps etc.

I'm a developer who likes to dabble on the somewhat bleeding edge and is interested in VR and AR, but I only played around casually with this stuff so far because I new it would be a very long process for this stuff to gain serious traction, for the technology to get good enough, etc. Stuff isnt ripe enough for all the use cases with the most potential to become obvious or doable. And its taking even longer than I originally suspected, so I'm still in no hurry to put more time and effort into it at this stage. I'm more interested in AR than VR these days, but we still arent even at a stage where I would like to make futuristic predictions. And I certainly wont judge things based on the response to Apples first product in this area when it finally arrives. Such responses are not the whole story, eg when the iPad launched people were more interested in taking the piss out of its name and being negative via sentiments like 'its just a big iphone', responses that were understandable but that did not really tell us that much about whether tablets would take off over time.


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## cybershot (Jun 6, 2022)

Vr is incredible for education, especially internal human body stuff. But Apple don't usually target the education sector.


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## BristolEcho (Jun 6, 2022)

cybershot said:


> Vr is incredible for education, especially internal human body stuff. But Apple don't usually target the education sector.


Can see the potential there. There was a research project in Bristol seeing if it could help people with social anxiety in VR settings like GP surgeries and if this helped them to build more confidence. It was limited to people with a diagnosis of psychosis, but was interesting. Not sure on the results yet as it was last year that it closed so will probably take some time. 

I struggle to see the social market at the moment.


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## 8ball (Jun 6, 2022)

BristolEcho said:


> Can see the potential there. There was a research project in Bristol seeing if it could help people with social anxiety in VR settings like GP surgeries and if this helped them to build more confidence. It was limited to people with a diagnosis of psychosis, but was interesting. Not sure on the results yet as it was last year that it closed so will probably take some time.
> 
> I struggle to see the social market at the moment.



They've also been using it in medical rehab scenarios - kids with bad burns and the like.  Where some of the stretches and stuff to stop the scars stiffening can be quite painful, they get them playing games where they have to do things like reach behind their back to take an arrow from a quiver to shoot assorted baddies, or raise their arms to climb and swing among branches like monkeys, and their reported pain scores while playing the games are really low.


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## Magnus McGinty (Jun 6, 2022)

Flight simulator is the best experience I’ve ever had using VR, or any electronic device, followed by a car racing game in VR. A different world, the next level. 
Beyond that, meh. Games specifically for VR are a bit shit, if pretty. Watching a film in VR is really fatiguing on the eyes. I’d much rather watch a film on a screen. And with other people.


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## TopCat (Jun 6, 2022)

Better than life...


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## elbows (Jun 6, 2022)

There are parallels to stuff currently labelled 'the Metaverse' too. The corporate propaganda and hype about the Metaverse is tedious and shit, and the timescales are uncertain with decades overall required to get it to where it needs to be (including many years already spent eg since the second life days), but the big entities cant afford to completely ignore it at this stage either. They can afford to bet on it, and cannot afford not to. And peoples opinions on its chances of success cant be treated as reliable, especially as generational differences in attitudes and habits will likely play a part.


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## 8ball (Jun 7, 2022)

Facebook has got itself in a right mess over the Metaverse nonsense. 
Throwing good money after bad because their main offering is beginning to sag imo.

One thing they have really helped with is the social angle, though - being able to jump into a game or other app with your mates was a lot harder before they stuck their oar in.

Agree with Magnus about films not being there yet, at least on the apps you can watch with others.  The Amazon Prime app isn't bad.

With the Quest (Facebook's £300 headset), aside from the games there are some nice experimental things like plays with live actors where the audience can take part, and self-help groups (fireside chats and stuff), and meditation apps which I've found much more accessible than other guided meditations and bring on some quite trippy and buzzy feelings.   Also, poker is fun - sitting in King Arthur's court or other settings, being able to talk to people, actually pick up chips and handle cards and stuff makes it a lot more fun than regular online poker.

It's a nice entry point and the Metaverse nonsense doesn't impinge on anything - at the moment it's just a few crappy apps you can take or leave.

Apple is taking quite a big gamble because their headset is going to be way more expensive than the current most popular standalone kit.

The current rumour is 10 times as much. 

You could build a pretty beefy PC and network it to a Quest for that kind of money, so it will have to be something special.


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## Magnus McGinty (Jun 7, 2022)

8ball said:


> Facebook has got itself in a right mess over the Metaverse nonsense.
> Throwing good money after bad because their main offering is beginning to sag imo.
> 
> One thing they have really helped with is the social angle, though - being able to jump into a game or other app with your mates was a lot harder before they stuck their oar in.
> ...



Poker with other people (represented by avatars) is pretty fun. And yeah, I quite liked some of the story telling stuff where you’re placed inside the action. That’s where it’s strongest I think.


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## elbows (Jun 7, 2022)

8ball said:


> The current rumour is 10 times as much.
> 
> You could build a pretty beefy PC and network it to a Quest for that kind of money, so it will have to be something special.


Because that version wont be supposed to be massively mainstream with an insane number of sales. It will probably be aimed at developers and early adopters and those who are happy to pay the very highest of Apple premiums. Then assuming they get enough aspects right and that developers make enough compelling content for it, over time they will stick the platform into other devices at various different price points, some of which may actually be attempting to compete with the likes of the Quest. There will still be an Apple premium attached to those other devices, but not as absurd a one as the initial device sounds like it will come with.


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## skyscraper101 (Jun 7, 2022)

AverageJoe said:


> Especially if they have some of the rights.
> 
> Your favourite band is playing in Brazil. Pay a fiver, slip on your headset and be at the gig itself. Instead of playing to 30,000 people you're playing to 1 billion people.
> 
> Kerching.



And presumably select from numerous vantage points too. I'm all for it.


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## 8ball (Jun 7, 2022)

elbows said:


> Because that version wont be supposed to be massively mainstream with an insane number of sales. It will probably be aimed at developers and early adopters and those who are happy to pay the very highest of Apple premiums. Then assuming they get enough aspects right and that developers make enough compelling content for it, over time they will stick the platform into other devices at various different price points, some of which may actually be attempting to compete with the likes of the Quest. There will still be an Apple premium attached to those other devices, but not as absurd a one as the initial device sounds like it will come with.



Initial leaks are actually that the headset is aimed at gaming and entertainment, with most of the AR functionality coming onstream later (so that element is seemingly v much in Dev).
Will have to see how price points move, but yeah, this isn't a mass market product at this stage clearly.

There are openXR protocols which are making a lot of content much less platform specific, so there should be plenty of stuff to play with off the bat.


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## kabbes (Jun 7, 2022)

I’ll “be at the gig” in the same way that listening to music on my hi-fi is like being at a live performance, i.e. not at all.


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## 8ball (Jun 7, 2022)

skyscraper101 said:


> And presumably select from numerous vantage points too. I'm all for it.



Yeah, you can hop between cameras, including ones on stage.


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## 8ball (Jun 7, 2022)

kabbes said:


> It’ll “be at the gig” in the same way that listening to music on my hi-fi is like being at a live performance, i.e. not at all.



Basically a 3d version of watching a gig on the telly, though you can have other VR users with you.


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## kabbes (Jun 7, 2022)

8ball said:


> Basically a 3d version of watching a gig on the telly, though you can have other VR users with you.


Yeah.  Watching a gig on the telly is nothing like being at the gig.  I actually find watching a gig on the telly really boring.


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## 8ball (Jun 7, 2022)

kabbes said:


> Yeah.  Watching a gig on the telly is nothing like being at the gig.  I actually find watching a gig on the telly really boring.



I haven't found things like gigs terribly compelling so far with VR.  I don't think it's a major selling point.


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