# Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more



## weltweit (Jan 20, 2020)

New China virus: Cases triple as infection spreads to Beijing and Shanghai
					

This comes as China confirms that a new strain of coronavirus can pass from person to person.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Bit scary, new virus which seems to have started in China seems very infectious and might be spreading.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 20, 2020)

> People are being advised to avoid "unprotected" contact with live animals.



Sheep shaggers beware.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 20, 2020)

china scan all arrivals at borders as a matter course- internal travel less so but present at major stations iirc.busy couple of weeks ahead as well.the pig virus meant the slaughter of 200m pigs - they dont fuck about in the PRC


----------



## weltweit (Jan 20, 2020)

It seems it all started in Wuhan


> ..
> They say the death was recorded in the eastern city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began in December.
> 
> Meanwhile, Japan confirmed its first case of the virus - the second country outside China after Thailand to do so.
> ..


----------



## wiskey (Jan 20, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> china scan all arrivals at borders as a matter course- internal travel less so but present at major stations iirc.busy couple of weeks ahead as well.the pig virus meant the slaughter of 200m pigs - they dont fuck about in the PRC


I vaguely heard something about temperature scanners which went along the lines of 'they don't really work as an actual line of defence but they are a visible way of reassuring the public and they deter people who are ill from traveling' .... Which sounded to me a bit like they _did_ work.


----------



## editor (Jan 20, 2020)

wiskey said:


> I vaguely heard something about temperature scanners which went along the lines of 'they don't really work as an actual line of defence but they are a visible way of reassuring the public and they deter people who are ill from traveling' .... Which sounded to me a bit like they _did_ work.


I had to face one of them when I arrived in Tokyo. Very offputting!


----------



## Cid (Jan 20, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> china scan all arrivals at borders as a matter course- internal travel less so but present at major stations iirc.busy couple of weeks ahead as well.the pig virus meant the slaughter of 200m pigs - they dont fuck about in the PRC



Busy is something of an understatement... 







Hundreds of millions of people will be moving through various transport hubs. Not a snowball's chance in hell those scanners are going to be properly and consistently monitored. Let's just hope the spread is limited somehow.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 21, 2020)

Cid said:


> Busy is something of an understatement...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Worst possible time of year, and worst possible location as well. Wuhan is a central transport hub, something like Chicago or Frankfurt, lots of people will be transferring through there.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 21, 2020)

bit of a summary here:








						New China virus: Warning against cover-up as number of cases jumps
					

Beijing's top leaders urge transparency as it is confirmed the coronavirus can pass between people.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Less hyperbolic than various tweets I could have posted.


----------



## elbows (Jan 22, 2020)

Cid said:


> Hundreds of millions of people will be moving through various transport hubs. Not a snowball's chance in hell those scanners are going to be properly and consistently monitored. Let's just hope the spread is limited somehow.



Frankly when it comes to things that spread via the respiratory tract, if there is efficient human to human transmission then I dont think we've ever been equipped to prevent the spread, its mission impossible even under much kinder circumstances. So even without the Chinese new year travel and population densities of China, if this new coronavirus is well adjusted to humans then it will not be stopped or even notably slowed. If on the other hand it is only just managing some limited human to human transmission then there is more hope, as happened so far with MERS and SARS.


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (Jan 22, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> Worst possible time of year, and worst possible location as well. Wuhan is a central transport hub, something like Chicago or Frankfurt, lots of people will be transferring through there.



Not any longer they won't.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 22, 2020)

blimey TheHoodedClaw looks like they are taking this outbreak even more seriously now.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 22, 2020)




----------



## Yossarian (Jan 22, 2020)

They're going to need a fuck of a lot of soldiers if they're going to actually seal off a city with a metropolitan area with roughly the same size and population as Greater London.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 22, 2020)

Videos from Wuhan look like something out of a disaster movie, if people there weren't panicking already I think they will be now,


----------



## weltweit (Jan 22, 2020)

Coronavirus: Wuhan shuts public transport over outbreak
					

Wuhan, a city of eleven million, temporarily shuts down all its public transport amid the outbreak.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> Limiting transport will cut the chance of the virus reaching other cities in China and other countries around the world.
> 
> This all comes just as millions of people are travelling across China for the week-long holiday that is Lunar New Year.
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Jan 23, 2020)

The horse has probably already bolted. Because when you see hundreds of cases showing up, that usually means there have actually been many thousands of cases already (because plenty will be asymptomatic or too mild to have raised any flags). The number of cases detected abroad (people who travelled from Wuhan) gives further clues to the scale of the problem at source (larger than originally suggested for sure, hence rising estimates in recent days).

Initial mortality data (which should be taken with a pinch of salt at this stage) suggests the usual picture - the old, and those with chronic underlying health problems are most likely to end up with severe consequences after catching this coronavirus. The wider picture will take a while to become clear. For example one possible scenario is that this coronavirus could quickly become endemic, joining the other things which we have always lumped together as 'the common cold'. Possible with not very different mortality and severe disease rates to what we already have to deal with. Slightly or much worse scenarios exist too though.


----------



## editor (Jan 23, 2020)

It might have arrived in the UK



> Four people in Scotland are being tested for suspected coronavirus and there will be many more cases in other cities across the country, the head of infection medicine at the University of Edinburgh has said.
> 
> 
> Professor Jurgen said three cases are in Edinburgh and the other is believed to be in Glasgow.
> ...





HuffPost is now part of Verizon Media


----------



## 8ball (Jan 23, 2020)

editor said:


> It might have arrived in the UK



It most likely will at some point.


----------



## skyscraper101 (Jan 23, 2020)

Coronavirus: UK-made 'Plague' game downloads soar in China amid virus outbreak


----------



## 8ball (Jan 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> The horse has probably already bolted. Because when you see hundreds of cases showing up, that usually means there have actually been many thousands of cases already (because plenty will be asymptomatic or too mild to have raised any flags). The number of cases detected abroad (people who travelled from Wuhan) gives further clues to the scale of the problem at source (larger than originally suggested for sure, hence rising estimates in recent days).
> 
> Initial mortality data (which should be taken with a pinch of salt at this stage) suggests the usual picture - the old, and those with chronic underlying health problems are most likely to end up with severe consequences after catching this coronavirus. The wider picture will take a while to become clear. For example one possible scenario is that this coronavirus could quickly become endemic, joining the other things which we have always lumped together as 'the common cold'. Possible with not very different mortality and severe disease rates to what we already have to deal with. Slightly or much worse scenarios exist too though.



Nice summing up.  We're basically talking about a quite nasty cold (coronaviruses in general being one of the families of viruses that always came under the broad heading of "colds").  Quite a lot of people die from colds generally (well, usually complications arising from them) - we don't talk about it much.

Usually, killing your host isn't an ideal evolutionary strategy, so mutation in the direction of lesser virulence wouldn't be a surprise.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 23, 2020)

skyscraper101 said:


> Coronavirus: UK-made 'Plague' game downloads soar in China amid virus outbreak



My nephews love that game - I got them the board game version too last Christmas.

Maybe it's quite a comforting game, because if you play as a virus and start in China and start killing people before even infecting lots of other countries, the humans will wipe you out in no time.


----------



## Detroit City (Jan 23, 2020)

I hope this isn't the end of the human race


----------



## 8ball (Jan 23, 2020)

Detroit City said:


> I hope this isn't the end of the human race



Sarcasm is unbecoming.


----------



## elbows (Jan 23, 2020)

8ball said:


> Usually, killing your host isn't an ideal evolutionary strategy, so mutation in the direction of lesser virulence wouldn't be a surprise.



I dont have any sense of how bad the virulence is to start with. Enough to show up and cause concern, but still possible that things like mortality rate wont end up being much different to stuff we are already used to. There is a question of co-infection with this sort of thing too, eg most cases might still be relatively mild and more confined to upper respiratory tract, but co-infection with another seasonal respiratory illness might promote lower respiratory tract issues and complications.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> I dont have any sense of how bad the virulence is to start with. Enough to show up and cause concern, but still possible that things like mortality rate wont end up being much different to stuff we are already used to.



I kind of figured it must be quite a lot worse than a common-or-garden cold for us to be discussing it in the first place.
edit: 17 people dead out of 550 cases seems like a lot to me


----------



## AmateurAgitator (Jan 23, 2020)

Assuming we are being given all the information, which is usually what happens in these situations, I'm sure everything is under control and it won't be that bad, it's usually the way with these things. I don't think theres any need to panic about this at this stage. We have the demograpic info of the first lot of patients, which is very useful. Also, over half of these had already existing serious health conditions that could complicate things which is also useful to know. One concern is that not everyone had a fever, that's quite worrying but it's not enough to panic over. Surveillance of a threat like this is key and is being undertaken which is just what we need. Some of the steps may seem dramitic and unnerving but there you go. The media always treats any situation like this as if it's going to be  the worst outbreak ever, which doesn't help.


----------



## existentialist (Jan 23, 2020)

Count Cuckula said:


> I'm sure everything is under control and it won't be that bad, it's usually the way with these things. I don't think theres any need to panic about this at this stage.


You'd better have a word with the Chinese government, then.


----------



## ffsear (Jan 23, 2020)

Victims so far mainly elderly with pre existing conditions.


----------



## Supine (Jan 23, 2020)

5 in UK now suspect. Scotland and Ireland.


----------



## elbows (Jan 23, 2020)

8ball said:


> I kind of figured it must be quite a lot worse than a common-or-garden cold for us to be discussing it in the first place.
> edit: 17 people dead out of 550 cases seems like a lot to me



I'll probably become quite boring when talking about this stuff. I will be keen to pick on the choice of wording used in the media, and also from experts at times too.

In this instance its the '550 cases' which reminds me to make a point. When you see reference to that, they should actually be saying '550 known cases', because actually there will have been thousands of cases by now, and the known picture is very incomplete. So we cant get a realistic mortality rate using 17 out of 550.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 23, 2020)

I heard today that China has locked down a couple of other cities near to the source. 

They certainly seem to be taking it seriously.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I heard today that China has locked down a couple of other cities near to the source.
> 
> They certainly seem to be taking it seriously.



Yeah, that's exactly what happens in Plague Inc. if you play with this strategy. 
If it's got enough mutation points, best thing to do at this point is to mutate for avian transmission.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> I'll probably become quite boring when talking about this stuff. I will be keen to pick on the choice of wording used in the media, and also from experts at times too.
> 
> In this instance its the '550 cases' which reminds me to make a point. When you see reference to that, they should actually be saying '550 known cases', because actually there will have been thousands of cases by now, and the known picture is very incomplete. So we cant get a realistic mortality rate using 17 out of 550.



Yeah, good point.


----------



## elbows (Jan 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> They certainly seem to be taking it seriously.



This is partly down to the amount of criticism they received for their handling of SARS.

So long as they dont cover shit up, and release info in a timely manner, I wont criticise them over stuff this time. Because contrary to the wording some articles will no doubt use when taking a blame angle, I dont think there are any countries that could manage to suppress an outbreak of a new infectious respiratory disease if it develops the ability to spread between people with ease. We never have managed such a thing before, to my knowledge. But you still have to try anyway because if it turns out to not be such a good spreader, but is rather deadly, then control and containment may be viable, and the stakes are different.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 24, 2020)

This sounds like a scary time to be in China - all kinds of rumours flying around about thousands of people dead in Wuhan and more major cities about to be locked down. Apparently the symptomless incubation period is up to two weeks long, so we'll probably be hearing about a lot more cases in a lot more places no matter how many cities get sealed off.


----------



## Teaboy (Jan 24, 2020)

I do feel like this virus needs a marketing makeover.  I for one am finding it difficult to get properly terrified about something that has such a boring and mundane scientific name.  Bird Flu was a good one and SARS was even better.

I think we can workshop this.  I'll start with Wuhan Woohoo?


----------



## 8ball (Jan 24, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I do feel like this virus needs a marketing makeover.  I for one am finding it difficult to get properly terrified about something that has such a boring and mundane scientific name.  Bird Flu was a good one and SARS was even better.
> 
> I think we can workshop this.  I'll start with Wuhan Woohoo?



'Woohoo" is a little too upbeat, I feel.
If SARS had never happened, it would be called that (severe acute respiratory syndrome being the issue with it), but it's too distantly related to the original to be "SARS 2" or similar.


----------



## weepiper (Jan 24, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I do feel like this virus needs a marketing makeover.  I for one am finding it difficult to get properly terrified about something that has such a boring and mundane scientific name.  Bird Flu was a good one and SARS was even better.
> 
> I think we can workshop this.  I'll start with Wuhan Woohoo?


The Scottish red tops have gone for the characteristically calm and sensitive 'KILLER SNAKE FLU!!'.


----------



## PursuedByBears (Jan 24, 2020)

weepiper said:


> The Scottish red tops have gone for the characteristically calm and sensitive 'KILLER SNAKE FLU!!'.


That's more like it!


----------



## Teaboy (Jan 24, 2020)

CCDS  (Chinese Certain Death Syndrome)?


----------



## T & P (Jan 24, 2020)

weepiper said:


> The Scottish red tops have gone for the characteristically calm and sensitive 'KILLER SNAKE FLU!!'.


I'm sure in due time there'll be a film to be had there, starring Samuel L. Jackson.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 24, 2020)

weepiper said:


> The Scottish red tops have gone for the characteristically calm and sensitive 'KILLER SNAKE FLU!!'.



Did they not have space for "CHINA" and "MYSTERY" ?


----------



## 8ball (Jan 24, 2020)

weepiper said:


> The Scottish red tops have gone for the characteristically calm and sensitive 'KILLER SNAKE FLU!!'.



Excellent name (the evidence that it has come from snakes is very sketchy at this point).


----------



## JimW (Jan 24, 2020)

I thought the claim was it originated with bats? Quiet bat people killer.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 24, 2020)

JimW said:


> I thought the claim was it originated with bats? Quiet bat people killer.



Bats were a plausible guess.  They then did some genetic tests (codon bias sequencing, which is a very blunt instrument) and found a better match with viruses circulating in two species of snake, but given the small number of species analysed (based on species present in the market area the virus is thought to have originated in), it is very tentative, especially seeing how it is very unusual for viruses to jump such phylogenetic distances in a single bound.

There's some credible speculation that it moved from bats to something else to humans.
The reason they care so much about the which species it came from is due to the concern of more transference between species, which can be combatted by selective isolation.


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (Jan 24, 2020)

From here









						Coronavirus: death toll reaches 41 in China with first cases in Europe
					

Public transport suspended in at least 13 cities in China as death toll rises and France identifies cases




					www.theguardian.com
				






> In the city of Wuhan, where most cases have occurred, the race to build a new 1,000-bed hospital in just six days began on Thursday night. Diggers and bulldozers beginning work on the site of a holiday complex once intended for local workers, according to Chinese media.


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Jan 24, 2020)

Snakes?! The Slippery Truth of a Flawed Wuhan Virus Theory
					

One paper advanced a controversial theory about the disease's origin. Other scientists aren't biting.




					www.wired.com


----------



## Reno (Jan 24, 2020)

T & P said:


> I'm sure in due time there'll be a film to be had there, starring Samuel L. Jackson.


There was a film from 2011 by Steven Soderbergh called Contagion, which was a fictionalised worst case scenario based on the 2009 flu pandemic. It was a rare dramatic film about an outbreak, praised by scientists for being fairly accurate.









						Contagion (2011 film) - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				




A virus can easily mutate, become far more dangerous and then we are fucked.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 24, 2020)

Reno said:


> A virus can easily mutate, become far more dangerous and then we are fucked.



I think it's very speculative and a little doomy to say 'easily' for this kind of virus.  Other kinds of coronaviruses cause colds fairly commonly and while we did have SARS and MERS, they didn't turn into apocalyptic mass pandemic psycho-bugs.

Then again, maybe I'm just the upbeat internet warrior who appears in a texture shot at the beginning of the disaster movie.


----------



## Teaboy (Jan 24, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I do feel like this virus needs a marketing makeover.  I for one am finding it difficult to get properly terrified about something that has such a boring and mundane scientific name.  Bird Flu was a good one and SARS was even better.
> 
> I think we can workshop this.  I'll start with Wuhan Woohoo?





8ball said:


> ...  apocalyptic mass pandemic psycho-bugs.



I like it.


----------



## Johnny Doe (Jan 24, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I do feel like this virus needs a marketing makeover.  I for one am finding it difficult to get properly terrified about something that has such a boring and mundane scientific name.  Bird Flu was a good one and SARS was even better.
> 
> I think we can workshop this.  I'll start with Wuhan Woohoo?


Let Calvin at it


----------



## elbows (Jan 24, 2020)

Curiously Concerning Cold with Chinese Characteristics.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 24, 2020)

elbows said:


> Curiously Concerning Cold with Chinese Characteristics.



Deadly Influenza Strain of Chinese Origin (DISCO)


----------



## pesh (Jan 24, 2020)

The Wuhan Wheeze


----------



## elbows (Jan 24, 2020)

The snot heard around the world.


----------



## Virtual Blue (Jan 24, 2020)

8ball said:


> Yeah, that's exactly what happens in Plague Inc. if you play with this strategy.
> If it's got enough mutation points, best thing to do at this point is to mutate for avian transmission.











						Killer plague game tops charts amid coronavirus
					

Strategy game Plague Inc has become the bestselling app in China, eight years after its release.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 24, 2020)

The conspiracy loons are on the case...









						Social Media Posts Spread Bogus Coronavirus Conspiracy Theory - FactCheck.org
					

Multiple social media posts are spreading a bogus conspiracy theory about the deadly Wuhan virus. The posts falsely claim that the virus has been patented and a vaccine is already available. That’s not true; the patents the posts refer to pertain to different viruses.




					www.factcheck.org


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 24, 2020)

Wuhan, China, is scrambling to build a hospital in just 6 days to treat coronavirus patients as its health system gets overwhelmed
					

Wuhan is in lockdown over the deadly virus, and doctors say existing hospitals are severely overwhelmed.




					www.businessinsider.com
				




Fucking hell, they can't even repair potholes in 6 months around here!


----------



## Detroit City (Jan 24, 2020)

Coronavirus is in Chicago, 2nd case in the US


----------



## weltweit (Jan 24, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Wuhan, China, is scrambling to build a hospital in just 6 days to treat coronavirus patients as its health system gets overwhelmed
> 
> 
> Wuhan is in lockdown over the deadly virus, and doctors say existing hospitals are severely overwhelmed.
> ...


Yes pretty amazing.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 24, 2020)

The radio was telling me that initial figures were that an infected person was going on to infect between 1.5 and 2.5 people. Then they got all coy and said the figures were not reliable.


----------



## Proper Tidy (Jan 24, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I do feel like this virus needs a marketing makeover.  I for one am finding it difficult to get properly terrified about something that has such a boring and mundane scientific name.  Bird Flu was a good one and SARS was even better.
> 
> I think we can workshop this.  I'll start with Wuhan Woohoo?


Wuhan clam ain't nuttin to fuck wit


----------



## sihhi (Jan 24, 2020)

Given that it takes 12 days to confirm a suspected case with samples being sent to non-Hubei laboratories, all the evidence seems to suggest underrecording of actual numbers.

This, along with climate change and hunger, the hugest challenge imagineable.

The local government was short on every level, original investigation, notification and measures taken.









						Wuhan mayor under pressure to resign over response to virus outbreak
					

Zhou Xianwang tells state broadcaster the government’s ‘warnings were not sufficient’ in interview that prompts online backlash.




					www.scmp.com
				




I can only cry, I am very upset.


----------



## Crispy (Jan 24, 2020)

8ball said:


> I think it's very speculative and a little doomy to say 'easily' for this kind of virus.


Don't worry, gene sequencing and editing will be cheap enough for the home hobbiest in the near future and then any sufficiently motivated individual can figure out how to make such mutations very easily indeed.


----------



## elbows (Jan 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The radio was telling me that initial figures were that an infected person was going on to infect between 1.5 and 2.5 people. Then they got all coy and said the figures were not reliable.



Well it is a preliminary figure that is bound to be taken with a pinch of salt. I believe someone already mentioned it here before, and the International Health Regulations Emergency  Committee mentioned it in their Thursday statement:









						Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus 2019 (n-CoV) on 23 January 2020
					

The meeting of the Emergency Committee convened by the WHO Director-General under the International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005) regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus 2019 in the People’s Republic of China, with exportations currently reported in the Republic of Korea, Japan, Thailand...




					www.who.int
				






> Human-to-human transmission is occurring and a preliminary R0 estimate of 1.4-2.5 was presented. Amplification has occurred in one health care facility. Of confirmed cases, 25% are reported to be severe. The source is still unknown (most likely an animal reservoir) and the extent of human-to-human transmission is still not clear.



I havent seen too much reporting of something else they said. This is the panel whose advice is used to decide whether to trigger PHEIC (Public Health Emergency of International Concern) and yet I get the impression they dont think this system is actually fit for purpose:



> In the face of an evolving epidemiological situation and the restrictive binary nature of declaring a PHEIC or not, WHO should consider a more nuanced system, which would allow an intermediate level of alert. Such a system would better reflect the severity of an outbreak, its impact, and the required measures, and would facilitate improved international coordination, including research efforts for developing medical counter measures.



Not surprising given the crude nature of the system. A system which I think was partly brought in in the first place because of failures in the response to SARS, but they have struggled with decisions in the past in ways that confused people, eg they did not declare a PHEIC for MERS.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 24, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Wuhan, China, is scrambling to build a hospital in just 6 days to treat coronavirus patients as its health system gets overwhelmed
> 
> 
> Wuhan is in lockdown over the deadly virus, and doctors say existing hospitals are severely overwhelmed.
> ...



If there was an outbreak big enough to cause London to be sealed off, I reckon they'd be able to put together a prefab hospital pretty quickly, or at least a warehouse for sick people that  they'd call a hospital.


----------



## wiskey (Jan 24, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> If there was an outbreak big enough to cause London to be sealed off, I reckon they'd be able to put together a prefab hospital pretty quickly, or at least a warehouse for sick people that  they'd call a hospital.


The plans are all there already


----------



## wiskey (Jan 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The radio was telling me that initial figures were that an infected person was going on to infect between 1.5 and 2.5 people. Then they got all coy and said the figures were not reliable.


I listened to the R4 sciencey show last night, rational people saying informed things about preparation and risk. Conclusion - China has been forward thinking and we shouldn't lay awake at night worrying. 

It was immediately followed by the news which was all doom and gloom


----------



## 8ball (Jan 24, 2020)

wiskey said:


> Conclusion - China has been forward thinking and we shouldn't lay awake at night worrying.



Laying awake all night is bad for your immune system.


----------



## Reno (Jan 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes pretty amazing.


Not that amazing. They are forced to do that because their existing health care system and infrastructure is severely lacking.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 24, 2020)

Reno said:


> Not that amazing. They are forced to do that because their existing health care system and infrastructure is severely lacking.


Hi Reno what I was meaning is amazing is the speed at which they are are constructing this new hospital. I don't know about their healthcare system.


----------



## 19sixtysix (Jan 24, 2020)

Daily mirror helping spread the fear with picture of man lying in a Wuhan st. He's probably had a heart attack and no one went to help. Ambulance crew in hazards suits dealt with him.


----------



## emanymton (Jan 24, 2020)

So I've been ill for the last week and I work with someone who was in China over Christmas and got back a couple of weeks ago.


----------



## tommers (Jan 24, 2020)

So what we're saying is that they've quarantined a city of 11 million people and stopped public transport in another 11 cities for something that is as bad as the common cold? 

Must be a nightmare over there when there's flu going about.


----------



## elbows (Jan 24, 2020)

emanymton said:


> So I've been ill for the last week and I work with someone who was in China over Christmas and got back a couple of weeks ago.



Well its perfectly understandable for the mind to ponder such possibilities.  More so if the person who was in China was visibly ill at work.

The most reassuring things I can say are that there are many other things around at the moment that are making people ill. And the 14 cases mentioned in the media that have been tested here but came back negative. Presumably these cases were flagged because they came from certain places within a certain window of time and then showed certain symptoms. A scenario much risker than yours, and so theoretically more likely some of them would test positive, but they were negative. 

More generally I am interested in the topic of the extent to which official/news/public perceptions about the current spread of a particular novel infection may lag behind the reality. And I dont like false certainty, so I dont like to rule out the possibility that someone here may have already had this illness. And even at the best of times the picture is a little murky, our sense of the picture far from complete. So I often end up with a 'never say never' stance. But even if we had a perfect view, our ability to make correctly balanced risk assessments and judgements is a bit limited, prone to under or overreaction, and quite an array of different psychological coping strategies.


----------



## elbows (Jan 24, 2020)

tommers said:


> So what we're saying is that they've quarantined a city of 11 million people and stopped public transport in another 11 cities for something that is as bad as the common cold?
> 
> Must be a nightmare over there when there's flu going about.



No. Disease severity not well understood yet. Spectrum of possibilities. As bad as the common cold at one end, something more dangerous that needs a real response at the other. Given that SARS and MERS fell on the latter end of things and were the previous new coronavirus outbreaks that humans have experience of responding to, complacency about this one would at this stage be an unwise approach.

Still, it is certainly the case that overreaction can carry its own human cost, and if its all for nothing then such moves will be called into question with the benefit of hindsight. I still prefer it to the classic public health message mistakes where 'panic prevention' (and avoiding economic damage) is used to justify too much suppression of information that the public have a right to know in order to empower themselves.


----------



## Reno (Jan 24, 2020)

tommers said:


> So what we're saying is that they've quarantined a city of 11 million people and stopped public transport in another 11 cities for something that is as bad as the common cold?
> 
> Must be a nightmare over there when there's flu going about.


The common cold doesn’t kill 3% of the people who catch it, which is the current estimate. Even for the flu the mortality rate is far lower. If hundreds of thousands are affected, do the maths.


----------



## elbows (Jan 24, 2020)

Reno said:


> The common cold doesn’t kill 3% of the people who catch it, which is the current estimate. Even for the flu the mortality rate is far lower. If hundreds of thousands are affected, do the maths.



Its not an estimate that carries much weight, its too early for a good estimate.

Underreporting of symptomatic cases and inability to estimate level of asymptomatic cases are some of the reasons why the number isnt very useful. 

For example, some MERS studies gave ranges of 12.5%-25% for asymptomatic cases.

And on the other side of the equation, of the known cases already counted, some of those that will die havent died yet and so are not included in the current number of deaths.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 24, 2020)

Big Chinese organisations in Europe have been instructed to halt most travel to the PRC and central command have ordered them to invoke epidemic contingency plans for staff wrt staff illness and sanitation ( distribution of hand sterliser etc) in their gaffs. Not joking here either, I know people who work for them.


----------



## elbows (Jan 24, 2020)

If any medical nerds are interested, a report into the clinical features of the first set of patients hospitalised is now available:



			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext


----------



## Supine (Jan 24, 2020)

elbows said:


> If any medical nerds are interested, a report into the clinical features of the first set of patients hospitalised is now available:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext



Amazing how detailed science can go so quickly on an emerging disease. Great link


----------



## elbows (Jan 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The radio was telling me that initial figures were that an infected person was going on to infect between 1.5 and 2.5 people. Then they got all coy and said the figures were not reliable.



There is also bound to be talk of the super-spreaders (also known as super shedders for the presumed increased viral load they shed), because that does seem to be an actual thing. Its shown up in the past such as with SARS, on occasions when a particular person and location is tied to an outbreak and they end up being able to trace a whole chain of resulting infections. I expect such phenomenon are presumed to occur in other sorts of outbreaks that never end up being contained as well, such as influenzas that end up being pandemics/epidemics and then the 'normal' flu in 'normal' flu seasons.

I havent checked the UK press for any coronavirus super-spreader stories yet, but I've already seen one on the CNN website. Wuhan virus 'super spreader' alarms disease detectives

So yeah, that average figures for how many people an infected person goes on to infect proably dont give a fair picture, as some individuals can do way more than their fair share of spreading.

As for various 'horse has already bolted' sentiments I have expressed in recent days, I feel like qualifying them again. If this new coronavirus has a similar levels of ease with which it spreads as SARS or MERS, then eventual containment is still a goal. The horse has bolted but it can be brought back eventually, at least to the extent that this coronavirus does not end up as a permanent fixture around the world and in the human population at large. If its much better at sustaining human to human transmission than that, then its a whole different kettle of fish. Its a bit like the difference between H5N1 bird flu and H1N1 2009 swine flu. They both had the ability to go from animal to human, and then for some human to human transmission. But so far the concerning bird flu strains didnt become amazing at doing the human to human spread, so it was possible to contain the outbreaks. But the swine flu had no such limitations and so containment was not plausible, and we had a pandemic.


----------



## elbows (Jan 24, 2020)

Supine said:


> Amazing how detailed science can go so quickly on an emerging disease. Great link



Thanks. Things have improved in that area, timely information sharing and reports, for sure.

It does get a bit depressing seeing how slow progress can actually be when it comes to the understanding of disease mechanisms and possible treatments. Anyone who has nerded out in the past on a bunch of diseases likely wont be surprised to see various cytokine storm things in the report. And the same old crude attempts to mitigate - yes, bloody corticosteroids again. The old 'well they are powerful anti-inflammatories and some of the damage is being done by inflammation response so lets try them'. But oh dear, current evidence from SARS and MERS patients tended to show no changes in mortality when corticosteroids were used, but rather delayed viral clearance. Anyway this isnt just me ranting, its all mentioned in that same report. Its just when they call for urgent study into this topic as a result it just makes me sad to see the same old themes and drug families coming up in the same unresolved way and same old context over and over again.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> There is also bound to be talk of the super-spreaders (also known as super shedders for the presumed increased viral load they shed), because that does seem to be an actual thing. Its shown up in the past such as with SARS, on occasions when a particular person and location is tied to an outbreak and they end up being able to trace a whole chain of resulting infections. I expect such phenomenon are presumed to occur in other sorts of outbreaks that never end up being contained as well, such as influenzas that end up being pandemics/epidemics and then the 'normal' flu in 'normal' flu seasons.
> 
> I havent checked the UK press for any coronavirus super-spreader stories yet, but I've already seen one on the CNN website. Wuhan virus 'super spreader' alarms disease detectives
> 
> ...



I suspect some element of this phenomenon is down to circumstance more than any fundamental difference in “shedding”.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

8ball said:


> I suspect some element of this phenomenon is down to circumstance more than any fundamental difference in “shedding”.



Yes a lot of factors are implicated. Some are down to environmental and contact circumstances. Symptoms that are not present in a lot of people, but make spread more likely when they are, are implcated. As is the related possibility of coinfection with something else that causes the symptom. eg runny nose not common with SARS, but a case who did have that seemed better at spreading it to other people.

A bunch of this stuff is explored here: Super-spreaders in infectious diseases


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Jan 25, 2020)

Thanks for doing the research for us elbows .



These outbreaks always remind me of the Stephen King short story about the flu apocalypse.



			NIGHT SURF


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 25, 2020)

A friend of mine from Wuhan who is studying overseas told me that she hasn't heard from her family in several days and they aren't answering her calls - bear in mind this is at the equivalent of Christmas time. 

There's some stuff doing the rounds on Wechat of a doctor in Wuhan sobbing on a voice message that they the hospital is overloaded with 40,000 people and there are only a few dozen doctors and they don't have the resources to cope with it. Sounds absolutely awful, and it looks like a real panic is spreading now. Even some articles published by state media are saying it is "far more serious than you imagine."

Another friend of mine who lives in a city in Guangdong province says that shopping malls, parks, cinemas, libraries, public transport, schools and many workplaces have all been shut down. Her city isn't named as one which is under lock down as transport in and out is still possible, but it seems like similar drastic measures are being taken outside of the cities in Hubei reported as being sealed off. 

However, I can't work out if it is now a case that officials are trying to show that they have done absolutely everything they can to stop the spread and may be overreacting and spreading panic. Authorities in Wuhan initially covered up reports, harassed journalists for "spreading rumours" no matter how accurate, Internet censors deleted reports on social media, and they denied that the virus could spread human to human. As a result the city of Wuhan went ahead with a massive outdoor New Year's banquet with 200,000 people in attendance. 

At that time, local officials had an incentive to cover up mistakes. Now the Central Government is warning that heads will roll if there's more cover ups (however, the same central government has spent the last 8 years centralising power in one man, tightening control on social media, cracking down on lawyers and NGOs, and fixated on spreading 'positive energy' by repressing bad news and punishing those who report it) , then the incentive has changed to being seen to be doing absolutely everything to control it. So it's totally possible that these extreme measures are in overreaction. 

Also, I've never seen so much open dissent and anger on my Wechat, too much for the censors to manage I guess. People seem confused and frustrated about the mixed messages - one post says "some people [thinly veiled reference to government officials] are really very strange, if you say it's serious they say you're spreading rumours, if you say it's not serious they again say that's misinformation, all common people can do is take all precautions." 

Bear in mind this is the second major disease outbreak in the last year, in both cases the problem was aggravated by cover ups and bad circulation of information. The first didn't spread to humans but killed so many pigs that it caused a big increase in the price of pork, the most staple meat in the Chinese diet. 

The psychological impact of this happening at New Years is akin to "Christmas is cancelled'. But actually even that doesn't quite capture it. The mass migration of Chinese from the countryside to cities in the last couple of decades is unprecedented in human history, and Spring Festival is for hundreds of millions of people the one time of year where they can be reunited with their relatives who they may live very far away from and work gruelling hours with few holidays. It's a real tragedy and coming on top of a struggling economy and unrest in Hong Kong, could be the big watershed moment in which the illusions of the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese people" and the Xi Jinping era are shattered. Another post I saw in a group chat said "rise of the East and decline of the west, we must wait longer for this day" which tells you something about the ideological and political impact of this.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 25, 2020)

There's now 18 cities in 'lock-down' affecting 56 million people, fuck that must be scary for everyone.   



> The nationwide death toll has jumped to 41, the government said Saturday, after 15 more people died in Wuhan.
> 
> Confirmed infections also surged to 1,287, up from 830 reported 24 hours earlier. Most of the deaths and overall cases have been in Hubei.











						China deploys army medics to overwhelmed virus epicentre
					

WUHAN: The Chinese army deployed medical specialists Saturday (Jan 25) to the epicentre of a spiralling viral outbreak that has killed 41 people and spread around the world, as millions spent their normally festive Lunar New Year holiday under lockdown.The country's most important celebration ha




					www.channelnewsasia.com


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 25, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> There's now 18 cities in 'lock-down' affecting 56 million people, fuck that must be scary for everyone.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




More than 18, that's 18 which people can basically not leave but many cities in Guangdong are also basically under lock down but aren't stopping people from leaving now. 

This looks absolutely disastrous, in Wuhan there is a shortage of supplies to deal with the crisis, apparently part of the reason is that workplaces are closed for the holidays and also as a precaution against the disease, and logistics networks have also been shut down. The rush to contain the virus has led to a breakdown in supply chains. Just read that a doctor in Wuhan died from a heart attack due to the stress of dealing with so many patients, fuck..


----------



## MrCurry (Jan 25, 2020)

At this early stage, it’s hard to get clear info as even if the authorities know, they may have good reasons not to allow panic to develop. I’m just wondering how wise it might be to get ahead of the rush and do a spot of panic buying precautionary stocking of non perishable provisions this weekend, or if it takes off and becomes a pandemic, is it going to be unavoidable anyway?

I’m thinking things like lentils, dried chickpeas, rice, etc, on which you could live for months if you really had a good reason not to leave the house.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Jan 25, 2020)

The first case has been reported in New York.

And if it can make it there, it can make it anywhere.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 25, 2020)

Did anyone else get this strange question when the authorities were saying that the disease had passed the species boundary, well there was the sort of implied question what exactly were they doing with those animals?


----------



## fishfinger (Jan 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Did anyone else get this strange question when the authorities were saying that the disease had passed the species boundary, well there was the sort of implied question what exactly were they doing with those animals?


Overcrowding, living in close proximity, and breathing in the same viruses as the animals. Poor sanitation - that sort of thing.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 25, 2020)

fishfinger said:


> Overcrowding, living in close proximity, and breathing in the same viruses as the animals. Poor sanitation - that sort of thing.


That sounds very rational thank you.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Did anyone else get this strange question when the authorities were saying that the disease had passed the species boundary, well there was the sort of implied question what exactly were they doing with those animals?



At markets like the one in Wuhan, all kinds of wild animals are crammed into cages next to each other before they are sold as food, so it's not surprising viruses end up jumping between species - SARS emerged in a similar way.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 25, 2020)

wiskey said:


> I listened to the R4 sciencey show last night, rational people saying informed things about preparation and risk. Conclusion - China has been forward thinking and we shouldn't lay awake at night worrying.
> 
> It was immediately followed by the news which was all doom and gloom



China spent the crucial first days of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak arresting people who posted about it online and threatening journalists

The whole reason this spread is because the Chinese government punishes reporting of bad news. They are not being forward thinking at all. 

"Just days before the entire city was quarantined, Wuhan hosted a major banquet involving 40,000 families to try to set a world record, The Times reported."

That banquet should not have gone ahead, but the government was still claiming it could not spread human to human and arresting people for "spreading rumours" if they reported the truth.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

This is the second time in one year where a major epidemic has been caused by the censorship regime and suppression of bad news.

The Chinese government deserves absolutely no praise whatsoever for their mishandling of the situation. The blame lies squarely with the Central Government and particularly with Xi Jinping, who has systematically rolled back any space for whistle-blowing or reporting bad news. We're also seeing that after the virus spread to be out of control thanks to cover ups, they are now over-reacting to save face and shutting down supply chains and as a result, leaving hospitals in Wuhan under-resourced and in a state of breakdown. 

Far from being far sighted, their mishandling of the coronavirus could be the most disastrous mismanagement since the Great Leap Forward, which was also largely caused by people covering up bad news and claiming bumper harvests when there was a famine.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 25, 2020)

This recording has gone viral on Wechat, managed to find a subtitled version.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 25, 2020)

Rimbaud sounds grim.

And sounds a lot more serious than the UK news media are making it out to be.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 25, 2020)

Of course why would they be building a new hospital urgently unless they expected a lot of cases.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Rimbaud sounds grim.
> 
> And sounds a lot more serious than the UK news media are making it out to be.



UK news are still largely dependent on official mainland Chinese sources, journalists won't be able to get access to Hubei province, so that is why. The stuff leaking out on social media within China, and what Chinese friends in Guangdong and Hubei are telling me, seems like it's a lot more serious.

I wished a friend in Guangdong Happy New Year and she said she is doing nothing today, just watching news on Youtube through VPN. Apparently all outdoor activities are cancelled, eating out is forbidden, and they have been ordered by the government not to visit relatives, so all there is to do is stay at home and eat a simple meal with nothing special. Pretty miserable New Year.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 25, 2020)

If that voicemail is real, that's a complete nightmare.  

It's clearly nowhere near under control, as a second hospital is to be built now. 









						China's Wuhan to build second designated hospital to treat coronavirus patients: state media
					

China's Wuhan city, the centre of the outbreak of the new coronavirus, will build a second dedicated hospital to treat patients, state media the People's Daily reported on Saturday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Artaxerxes (Jan 25, 2020)

Bit concerned by all this, I’ve got a fucked immune system and work in a tourist hot spot.



cupid_stunt said:


> Wuhan, China, is scrambling to build a hospital in just 6 days to treat coronavirus patients as its health system gets overwhelmed
> 
> 
> Wuhan is in lockdown over the deadly virus, and doctors say existing hospitals are severely overwhelmed.
> ...



Men with guns aren’t pointing them at capita that’s why.

Might improve a lot of they did mind.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 25, 2020)

BBC says Britain is trying to trace 2000 visitors from Wuhan.



> is understood that the aim is to eliminate those who have flown on to other destinations and to check on the health of others in case they might have the coronavirus.
> 
> It is believed that this could involve as many as 2,000 people
> ]


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> If that voicemail is real, that's a complete nightmare.



The voice mail can be true without all the facts in it being true.

For example, there is unlikely to be a way for medical staff there to know that 100,000 people are infected. Methods could be used to estimate that number, but there is no way that order of magnitude of people have actually been tested for this coronavirus. And there are so many other common illnesses that will have similar symptoms in all but the really serious cases.

Medical staff themselves are not immune to panic, and they are probably being asked to deal with an impossible situation with a scary order of magnitude. That doesnt mean they are in a position to properly judge the actual order of magnitude.


----------



## Cid (Jan 25, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> UK news are still largely dependent on official mainland Chinese sources, journalists won't be able to get access to Hubei province, so that is why.



Hmm... really? Communication within China isn't that restricted, and there are around 1000 US citizens in Wuhan, including a consulate (recent news says they're arranging a flight out). There's also a British consulate in Wuhan. Though I suppose they may have been relying too heavily on official statements, since the kind of journalism that requires you to find decent sources in a city that rarely gets much attention outside China would actually take some effort.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

The media love the human stories and the lockdown stories so they have not been shy of trying to get stuff from normal people on the ground.

People in the affected cities are very well placed to tell us about the panic, the shortages, various other human aspects. In most cases they wont actually be well placed to judge the spread of infection. Hospitals being overloaded with people turning up isnt as much of a guide as we'd think either because its sort of inevitable once public fear of the disease crosses a certain point. If you are there now and you catch a cold, you are quite likely to think you've caught the new coronavirus even when you havent, and seek medical attention.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 25, 2020)

This modelling is being wildly reported, let's hope it's wrong.



> Using case data scraped from official reports, a team led by Jonathan Read [a biostatistics researcher] at Lancaster University plotted a temporal map of the coronavirus’s spread, starting on January 1, when local authorities closed the meat-and-animal market where the virus is believed to have crossed into humans from an unknown source. They worked under the assumption that any spread following the first of the year could only be between humans.
> 
> The models they constructed predict a dire start to February: further outbreaks in other Chinese cities, more infections exported abroad, and an explosion of cases in Wuhan. “In 14 days’ time, our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 190,000,” the authors write.
> 
> ...


----------



## Cid (Jan 25, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> This modelling is being wildly reported, let's hope it's wrong.



Hadn't realised the market was closed as long ago as the 1st. Given that you'd need to establish that the virus wasn't just flu, and where it came from before doing that, it does seem to indicate that this has a had a long time to spread already.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Jan 25, 2020)

wiskey said:


> I listened to the R4 sciencey show last night, rational people saying informed things about preparation and risk. Conclusion - China has been forward thinking and we shouldn't lay awake at night worrying.
> 
> It was immediately followed by the news which was all doom and gloom




The thing is...

With the increasing number of novel viruses and significantly dangerous outbreaks of new and known viruses, from SARS to Ebola, flu etc. however cautious careful and successful we are at keeping them contained and finding treatments and vaccines and treatments for them, it seems fairly ineviteble to me that eventually catastrophic mistakes will be made.

Unless we adopt drastic draconian collective and universal measures to guard against any and all potentially deadly pandemics, it’s only a matter of time before one of them (or a mixture of them) gets the advantage over us.

It sounds like this one will kick our arses (I suspect we won’t see it peak for some time yet) but we’ll probably manage to head it off as a global catastrophe this time. But I have a nagging feeling the odds are shortening for us in the longer term.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> This modelling is being wildly reported, let's hope it's wrong.



The last paragraph of that article is one of the most important:



> Read and his coauthors acknowledge that at this point all predictions are shaky, given the limited information available. But with an outbreak that’s moving as fast as this one, models like theirs are often the best tools available for public health officials to decide how to combat what’s coming next.



Funnily enough I was a victim of a disease outbreak when I was at Lancaster Uni, one of the campus cafes had what I presume was a norovirus outbreak. I bet the relevant science department there had fun analysing that one at the time, since that department there often gets in the news as a source of quotes from experts who do disease outbreak research, and this study is no exception.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Jan 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> The media love the human stories and the lockdown stories so they have not been shy of trying to get stuff from normal people on the ground.
> 
> People in the affected cities are very well placed to tell us about the panic, the shortages, various other human aspects. In most cases they wont actually be well placed to judge the spread of infection. Hospitals being overloaded with people turning up isnt as much of a guide as we'd think either because its sort of inevitable once public fear of the disease crosses a certain point. If you are there now and you catch a cold, you are quite likely to think you've caught the new coronavirus even when you havent, and seek medical attention.



All this of course.

And/but if you click through that voice recording the see the replies, there’s a clp of a very crowded hospital (which may well be full of over-cautious folk) with three covered corpses in the corridor. Three dead on the floor (if true) suggests a genuinely overwhelmed system.





Would China accept international aid?


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 25, 2020)

Conversation on Wechat with a friend from Wuhan who is studying in France at the moment, translated (I left the original Chinese because there is some ambiguity in translation):

*Me:*
新年快乐 Happy New Year
你怎么过年？ How did you see in the New Year?
*My friend*:
我在飞机上跨年 I spent it on a plane
我还好吧 I'm alright
我家人不太好 My family aren't so good
*Me:*
你联系到他们吗？ Did you get in contact with them?
具体的情况我不太清楚，很难判断病毒消息的可靠性 I'm not too clear on the exact situation, it is difficult to judge the reliability of news about the virus
*My friend:*
联系了 Contacted them
武汉是一座空城 Wuhan is an empty city
*Me:*
他们怎么样？ How are they?
*My friend:*
所有商店关门了，超市物资不够，药店关门，所有机动车不能开 All the shops are closed, the supplies in the supermarkets are running low, pharmacies are closed, no transport is running
我爷爷卧床不起 My grandfather is in bed, can't get up
我舅舅发烧 My Uncle has a fever
*Me:*
我与有些广东朋友联系了，据说他们的城市也是空的，只好留在家里面过年 I contacted some friends from Guangdong, apparently their city is also empty, no choice but to spend the festival stuck at home
*My friend:*
我妈妈也不好 My mother is also not good
Me:
 
I'm very sorry to hear that
*My friend:*
我表妹刚刚给我打电话 My cousin just called me
她说她的同学快不行了 She said her classmate (or classmates?) are almost done _(quite hard to translate this, a bit ambiguous but basically means they close to death)_
*Me:*
我的天 Omg
*My friend:*
咯血，肺部严重感染，医院排不上队 Hemoptysis, severe lung infection, cannot queue at the hospital
全家就我一个人没事 I'm the only one in my family who is well
我给舅舅打电话，他有点不清醒，把自己一个人锁在房间里，不和家人接触 I called my Uncle, he feels a bit groggy, he has locked himself in his room and is avoiding contact with his family
大家都活在恐慌之中 Everybody is living in a state of panic


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

Cid said:


> Hadn't realised the market was closed as long ago as the 1st. Given that you'd need to establish that the virus wasn't just flu, and where it came from before doing that, it does seem to indicate that this has a had a long time to spread already.



I'm under the impression that the first known case had an illness onset date of about December 8th, with mid December often stated as the timeframe when many of the initial cases emerged.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Jan 25, 2020)

Oh gosh that sounds very bad Rimbaud . I send you and yours my very best wishes.

And the same for all our Urban bredren and sistren who have people in China.


----------



## Cid (Jan 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> I'm under the impression that the first known case had an illness onset date of about December 8th, with mid December often stated as the timeframe when many of the initial cases emerged.




That does not sound good. Nor does rimbaud’s conversation above.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 25, 2020)

Cid said:


> Hmm... really? Communication within China isn't that restricted, and there are around 1000 US citizens in Wuhan, including a consulate (recent news says they're arranging a flight out). There's also a British consulate in Wuhan. Though I suppose they may have been relying too heavily on official statements, since the kind of journalism that requires you to find decent sources in a city that rarely gets much attention outside China would actually take some effort.



It is still difficult to verify things and get accurate information for a whole variety of reasons. Even if you are in China, you are inviting trouble if you go poking around asking questions about sensitive issues, and if you are a journalist you are heavily scrutinised.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> The thing is...
> 
> With the increasing number of novel viruses and significantly dangerous outbreaks of new and known viruses, from SARS to Ebola, flu etc. however cautious careful and successful we are at keeping them contained and finding treatments and vaccines and treatments for them, it seems fairly ineviteble to me that eventually catastrophic mistakes will be made.
> 
> ...



For years before the swine flu pandemic there was the common idea (very much including within the expert community) that we were long overdue for a flu pandemic, it was just a matter of time, etc. Obviously we then had the swine flu pandemic so this overdue idea was reset.

Mistakes in response leading to wider disease spread is something we see more discussion of with outbreaks that actually have limited capacity to spread, so containment is feasible. But I would suggest that the diseases most likely to spread without a realistic prospect of containment are the ones most likely to affect humanity as a whole, and when that happens its not really a story of human error. More one of humans never having control over this stuff in the first place.

Human errors can have massive implications though. The H1N1 flu strain that emerged in 1977 and became a standard seasonal strain until displaced by the 2009 swine flu strain, is quite widely considered to have come from a lab accident.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> It sounds like this one will kick our arses (I suspect we won’t see it peak for some time yet) but we’ll probably manage to head it off as a global catastrophe this time. But I have a nagging feeling the odds are shortening for us in the longer term.



I have no reason at all to assume we'll probably manage to stop it becoming a global catastrophe. Its just too early to tell, and some indicators may be suggesting greater transmissibility than we saw with SARS, so for me that means all bets are off.


----------



## Cid (Jan 25, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> It is still difficult to verify things and get accurate information for a whole variety of reasons. Even if you are in China, you are inviting trouble if you go poking around asking questions about sensitive issues, and if you are a journalist you are heavily scrutinised.



Certainly seems to be the case, total lack of concrete info. Especially in light of your post above... just surprised me a bit.

Nanjing chatter seems pretty normal looking at my wechat moments/talking to friends. People concerned of course, but nothing beyond that yet.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> All this of course.
> 
> And/but if you click through that voice recording the see the replies, there’s a clp of a very crowded hospital (which may well be full of over-cautious folk) with three covered corpses in the corridor. Three dead on the floor (if true) suggests a genuinely overwhelmed system.
> 
> Would China accept international aid?



A lot of my tone was due to the 100,000 people figure. Whereas terrible scenes at hospitals can easily be created by the sorts of numbers we've already got official word of, hundreds or thousands, we dont need tens or hundreds of thousands to cause such distressing scenes. Even without serious panic adding to hospital attendee numbers its possible to imagine such scenes, so add the panic layer on top and it would be more surprising if we hadnt seen such scenes. And even at the best of times it really doesnt take much unexpected swing in number of patients for hospitals to reach breaking point.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 25, 2020)

Cid said:


> Certainly seems to be the case, total lack of concrete info. Especially in light of your post above... just surprised me a bit.
> 
> Nanjing chatter seems pretty normal looking at my wechat moments/talking to friends. People concerned of course, but nothing beyond that yet.



Most of my contacts in China are from Guangdong and Chongqing - Chongqing is pretty close to Wuhan (in that Wuhan is the next really major city along the Yangtze, and Hubei borders the wider municipality) and Guangdong is apparently the province with the second most cases. So this seems to be like 80-90% of my Wechat moments recently.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Jan 25, 2020)

Exactly as you say elbows .

Complacency and familiarity/contempt for caution will no doubt play a part in any full on catastrophic pandemic. So too will circumstance and coinciding events, such as for instance Chinese New Year (or the Olympics, Kumbh Mela, Hajj...)

The more often stuff like this happens and we get away with it globally, the more likely it is that folks will become more complacent about the next one.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> The more often stuff like this happens and we get away with it globally, the more likely it is that folks will become more complacent about the next one.



Depends on the folks in question. There is a very much decreased risk of complacency within key disease related disciplines and responders these days, much greater international networks of information sharing and research, protocols, legally-backed response mechanisms etc. Detection and surveillance and analysis of novel emerging diseases is so much better, and every new bullet that has been dodged has been treated not with complacency, but with a sense of what should be improved in our responses next time around.

Likewise, I believe the nature and scale of transport shutdown in relation to Wuhan might be utterly without precedent. But maybe there is an example I have overlooked.

Away from the specialist response sphere, complacency is an inevitable part of the human psychology and coping strategies for retaining sanity and a sense of normality in abnormal times. In much the same way that life goes on in war zones, with horrific abnormal levels of terror co-existing with the day to day.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

Now when it comes to China, complacency and failures, the most obvious direction in which to finger point is the wild animal markets. SARS raised the flag on this, but there were cultural, political and economic reasons why the entire practice wasnt completely banned. Same story with MERS and certain middle eastern countries, MERS is linked to camels but there are cultural reasons why mass camel slaughter was not considered a viable response.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 25, 2020)

"Disease expert gets infected through eyeballs" isn't a story that inspires optimism.









						Chinese expert thinks he contracted coronavirus through his eyeballs
					

Peking University respiratory specialist Wang Guangfa contracted illness after visiting the city and believes lack of eye protection may have been the cause.




					amp.scmp.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 25, 2020)

This articles goes into detail about how the officials in Wuhan deliberately downplayed the virus, medical staff were banned from speaking publicly about it, police admitting they had arrested people for spreading “rumours”, doctors in the city told not to report cases, etc., etc.









						Weeks before lockdown, Wuhan authorities used 'refrigerating strategy’ to downplay coronavirus
					

New evidence is emerging that officials in Wuhan deliberately downplayed the virus, even after notifying the WHO in late December about ‘a cluster of cases of pneumonia of unknown cause.’




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Jan 25, 2020)

Replying to elbows

Setting aside the market forces etc (such as in the actual markets) that cause complacency and failings, people who really understand what could happen will not be complacent and will - as you say - be better able and more likely to take all necessary measures to get ahead of an infection. But can you imagine what would happen if some kind of deadly respiratory virus gets a toehold while people are gathering for the Hajj or for the Kumbh Mela. It would be impossible to persuade people not to travel, and they gather in huge numbers, in close proximity. And then they all go home again.

The Chinese government, because of their powers, have been able to shut down entire cities and transport routes, but would the same be possible in India? The Kumbh Mela is so loose and baggy, and so huge, that I doubt it could be effectively shut down if some virus were detected in, say, the preceding fortnight.

If something (like with this present coronvirus) has a fairly long and asymptomatic incubation period, just the European festival season could enable it to get a toehold. A respiratory virus with a significant risk of cytokine storms in the young and healthy could travel in those youngsters while they're immunologically on the back foot as a result of lack of sleep and booze/drug comedowns, taking it from the festivals back to the cities.

If someone went to Hajj and didn't get MERS - or did and didn't really struggle with it, or did struggle or even died of it but no one in their village realised it was a big deal - are they more likely to be more dismissive of concerns another time? Does that make the next time more problematic? The Hajj cough is a regular and growing concern, with a significant uptick of TB and pneumonia amongst pilgrims every year. It's not hard to imagine some kind of URTI taking evolutionary advantage of such a gathering, and it would be too late to contain it by the time everyone went home.

These are exactly the questions epidemiologists are asking, of course. But not everyone has the same kind of overview or perspective that is being seen on this thread. How many people around the world even know about the Hajj cough, or about Kumbh Mela. Crowds gathering for the funeral procession of Suleimani, or the Hong Kong protests, or the Sardines gatherings in Italy, any of these could kick off a deadly virus. Would people forgo the gathering if there was a vague rumour of an URTI going round?

I'm not trying to be a doomsayer here; I really really hope that SARS and MERS and Ebola and this current problem will make us all think carefully about the implications in the future. But I can't shake this feeling...


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 25, 2020)

I guess it's probably only a matter of time.

There was some modelling done last year, that suggested a serious coronavirus pandemic could kill 65 million people across the world in just 18 months.



> A scientist at Johns Hopkins last year modelled what would happen if a deadly coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. His simulated scenario predicted that 65 million people could die within 18 months.











						Health experts issued an ominous warning about a coronavirus pandemic 3 months ago. The virus in their simulation killed 65 million people.
					

The virus in the simulation was a fictional one called CAPS, but it bears some similarities to the Wuhan coronavirus.




					www.businessinsider.com.au


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Jan 25, 2020)

We get these models over and over again, and so far we've been lucky. 

Finger's crossed for the future.

But none of that takes away from the real horror of what it's like for those caught up in the local events.


----------



## Reno (Jan 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> We get these models over and over again, and so far we've been lucky.
> 
> Finger's crossed for the future.
> 
> But none of that takes away from the real horror of what it's like for those caught up in the local events.


We haven't been lucky. AIDS is thought to have killed 25 million people by now. The flu pandemic, which killed 500 million, was only a century ago.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Replying to elbows
> But can you imagine what would happen if some kind of deadly respiratory virus gets a toehold while people are gathering for the Hajj or for the Kumbh Mela. It would be impossible to persuade people not to travel, and they gather in huge numbers, in close proximity. And then they all go home again.
> 
> The Chinese government, because of their powers, have been able to shut down entire cities and transport routes, but would the same be possible in India? The Kumbh Mela is so loose and baggy, and so huge, that I doubt it could be effectively shut down if some virus were detected in, say, the preceding fortnight.



I dont think about things that much from quite the angle of those or other comments you made there (and some others I didnt quote). I'll try to explain why, hopefully briefly because my stance relies on a bunch of points I already made earlier.

I think I dont think about it in the same way as you mostly because I think the effectiveness with which a particular infection can spread between people is the biggest factor. Human behaviour is a good deal less relevant if the disease has a certain inherent potential, we are unlikely to stop it whether few mistakes are made or many. The dramatic lockdowns imposed by China will do nothing other than alter the timing a little, if this coronavirus turns out to develop efficient human to human spread.

Thats not to say I am dismissing your angles, planners of certain things certainly need to consider that stuff and mass gatherings are a vector that always deserves attention. But when it comes to me sitting around wondering whether this current outbreak will ever be contained or not, I dont place that much emphasis on the actions of people in the weeks ahead. The characteristics of the virus will turn out to be the big difference maker, and under the worst scenarios a lot of the human response will really be in the service of the psychology of feeling a bit better about your circumstances if you feel somewhat empowered to take matters into your own hands, to have some degree of control over your fate. But the narrative of humans battling to control a situation is not always where the real action is, under certain scenarios the reality is that we are relatively powerless and humans are not in the driving seat at all.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

Reno said:


> We haven't been lucky. AIDS is thought to have killed 25 million people by now. The flu pandemic, which killed 500 million, was only a century ago.



Estimates for the 1918 influenza pandemic are more like 50-100 million. And there have been four subsequent flu pandemics since then (1957,1968,1977,2009), none of which had as many estimated casualties but all of which took their own toll in ways no less worthy of reporting.


----------



## Reno (Jan 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> Estimates for the 1918 influenza pandemic are more like 50-100 million. And there have been four subsequent flu pandemics since then (1957,1968,1977,2009), none of which had as many estimated casualties but all of which took their own toll in ways no less worthy of reporting.


That's still nothing to be sneezed at.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> "Disease expert gets infected through eyeballs" isn't a story that inspires optimism.



Yeah, eye protection is part of the standard template for infection prevention in healthcare workers, and indeed as expected it is present in the WHO interim guidance on infection prevention and control during health care when novel coronavirus infection is suspected.



> Use eye/facial protection (i.e. goggles or a face shield);





> Refrain from touching eyes, nose or mouth with potentially contaminated hands;











						Infection prevention and control during health care when novel coronavirus (nCoV) infection is suspected
					

Interim guidance




					www.who.int


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Would China accept international aid?



I forgot to respond to this earlier.

At this stage its more of a question of directing national assets to the affected areas. The systems were clearly overwhelmed at the local level, and now they have taken control away from local government and have brought in hundreds of military medical personnel. 

International research, investigation etc will be part of things, but in terms of international aid, if things got so bad that China used up all of its own capacity and required such support, I would tend to think that things would also be looking bad internationally, and that countries might need to hang on to their own resources to tackle their own outbreaks.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Jan 25, 2020)

Reno said:


> We haven't been lucky. AIDS is thought to have killed 25 million people by now. The flu pandemic, which killed 500 million, was only a century ago.




Sorry.

I forget how pedantic and complete one needs to be on Urban. These things were certainly in my mind when I was typing but were not part of the point I was trying to make. So I apologise for not being more complete and thorough.



Disclaimers:

Setting aside the global flu epidemic that followed WW1 (which gives us a pretty good idea of how devastating these thing can be) but focussing on the modern much more connected world that we currently live in.... then my post.


The ongoing awfulness of HIV/AIDS, which has become a chronic health issue around the world and clearly demonstrates how viruses can take hold and decimate populations, gives us a pretty good idea of what might happen; but I'm thinking specifically of the recent apparent increase of sudden outbreaks that need immediate containment. Hopefully we've learned important lessons from HIV/AIDS about what NOT to do, however.... then my post.


So I'm saying

Notwithstanding our earlier experiences of how infection can take hold (for instance HIV/AIDS and the 1918 flu pandemic), I wonder how much we've actually learned in respect to the ways the modern world is more connected and gatherings are so fucking huge. We've been lucky this century but it feels like we're on borrowed time.






ETA

Also, various reiterations of the plague.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Jan 25, 2020)

To clarify (and then I'm going to step back I think).

My wider concern isn't about this particular virus (hopefully it goes without saying that I am hugely worried about the reality for those affected); my wider concern is a sense that it's a harbinger of things to come, I feel like the writing is on the wall in a more general sense.

Maybe that's down to the general doomy end-times feeling that seems to be so prevalent.

There's a great deal more I'd add to a general discussion but I get so fed up with getting bogged down in specifics and detail when I want to make larger points. So yeah. I'll step back now.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> ..
> There's a great deal more I'd add to a general discussion but I get so fed up with getting bogged down in specifics and detail when I want to make larger points. So yeah. I'll step back now.


Well I would like if you did make your larger points because it will add to the discussion and I think would be welcomed.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> To clarify (and then I'm going to step back I think).
> 
> My wider concern isn't about this particular virus (hopefully it goes without saying that I am hugely worried about the reality for those affected); my wider concern is a sense that it's a harbinger of things to come, I feel like the writing is on the wall in a more general sense.
> 
> ...



Funnily enough it was a tendency towards apocalyptic thinking and catastrophising that caused me to become clued up about respiratory diseases and novel virii crossing species barriers in the first place. It was back in the days of initial concern about H5N1 bird flu, and the medias coverage of the subject was not enough for me, and quacks were using it to pedal bullshit, so I decided to get clued up. It didnt end up feeling all that useful at the time, since H5N1 remained limited, but its been an enormously useful foundation when subsequent outbreaks of respiratory illnesses have occurred.

At least it is useful for my own ability to convey information and tackle misperceptions. For me personally it was also of help in terms of my own psychology and coming to terms with things. But this is a personal thing that relies on my own personality type and existing attitudes towards things. So I dont really feel I can preach on this side of things, just because I am comfortable with the realities and risks of life and the seeming inevitability of certain things (albeit even if the question is when not if, the when still makes a huge difference and is a key area where sense of doom can pollute rational conclusions via a sense of immediacy that turns out to be false). Right now I am able to consider the full spectrum of possibilities with this outbreak, ranging from containment to pandemic, without a sense of doom turbo-charging one of these possibilities and making them seem inevitable. I wont always get it right either, the balance between accepting our fate and lack of control over everything, without giving in to a useless fatalism, seems easy at times but very difficult at others, and errors on this front can sneak up on me.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> There's a great deal more I'd add to a general discussion but I get so fed up with getting bogged down in specifics and detail when I want to make larger points. So yeah. I'll step back now.



I'd be much happier if everyone spoke up with whatever levels of discussion they want to have on this subject.

Obviously I mostly operate on a tedious level of detail, as well as trying to paint quite broad pictures. This invariably means I will use other peoples comments to launch some of my own points. I dont want this to shut anyone else down, but I know it can be draining to have to respond to picky detail all the time, so I understand if you dont want to be subjected to that all the time. If you are anything like me then energy levels will vary in terms of how much you can be arsed with it, so I suppose I'm just saying please do on the occasions when you feel up for it!


----------



## weltweit (Jan 25, 2020)

I don't have any deep or large points to make about this particular outbreak, I do think in many ways we are lucky that it is in China where the authorities can clamp down on movement in a way that might have been unthinkable in Europe.

However with it being in China we also don't have free flowing information to know just how serious it is.

What would have happened if this outbreak had occured in cologne?


----------



## Supine (Jan 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> What would have happened if this outbreak had occured in cologne?



They have a plan - Influenza discussed here:

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...tific_part_summary.pdf?__blob=publicationFile


----------



## weltweit (Jan 25, 2020)

Supine said:


> They have a plan - Influenza discussed here:
> 
> https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...tific_part_summary.pdf?__blob=publicationFile


 TLDR .. tricky to read on a phone!


----------



## Supine (Jan 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> TLDR .. tricky to read on a phone!





We don't need to know what the plan is. But it's good to know there is one


----------



## Humberto (Jan 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> I'd be much happier if everyone spoke up with whatever levels of discussion they want to have on this subject.
> 
> Obviously I mostly operate on a tedious level of detail, as well as trying to paint quite broad pictures. This invariably means I will use other peoples comments to launch some of my own points. I dont want this to shut anyone else down, but I know it can be draining to have to respond to picky detail all the time, so I understand if you dont want to be subjected to that all the time. If you are anything like me then energy levels will vary in terms of how much you can be arsed with it, so I suppose I'm just saying please do on the occasions when you feel up for it!



It's been very good, informative and balanced.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> However with it being in China we also don't have free flowing information to know just how serious it is.



I dont expect the information picture to be that much different compared to if it had happened anywhere else really. It could have been, if they had decided to try to suppress the whole thing, but thats not whats happened by the end of last year and now even their propaganda has gone in the 'call it a massive threat' direction.

In the initial weeks, yes. But this year I think the scientific community are getting the data they would expect, when they would want it.

And when it comes to numbers, no country would be able to detect every case, so the difference between confirmed cases and estimated cases would also happen elsewhere, its not merely a state information control phenomena.

My stance on this could always change if more coverups or distortions emerge. But my main point is that both the nature of disease detection, the need to use other methods like estimates and modelling, and the tendencies of states to careful control public health information, with the resulting impacts on public confidence in the information, are phenomenon that tend to crop up everywhere, they are not unique to China. Its just easier for these subjects to readily be discussed when it comes to China because there is all the other political baggage with their system and modes of control and suppression that means we are already used to talking about China in these terms, there is no taboo to us going there, its a theme that springs readily to mind. As such it is ripe to use as an example of ingrained media bias, and I probably will do this sometime, especially since I already read a New York Times article that was blatant in its lazy framing and nationalistic bias.



> What would have happened if this outbreak had occured in cologne?



Too many variables to have a good stab at that. Much would come down not to the politics of the country or the transport logicstics, but to medical good fortune and alertness towards novel disease outbreak possibilities during the initial wave of infections.

Also it isnt random that China is often the source of new things that came from animals. The conditions have been ripe there for such things to happen, so from time to time they do happen. This also means that in theory the Chinese are at least more alert to the potential of novel diseases coming via these animal-human vectors, so when you get an outbreak of a viral pneumonia there with some unexpected characteristics, coronavirus is going to be much higher up the list of theoretical possibilities to urgently investigate than it would be in Cologne.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

Humberto said:


> It's been very good, informative and balanced.



Thanks. In many areas of life I am pretty much a useless lump so on the rare occasions I think I can be useful I may rather attempt to overcompensate!


----------



## Supine (Jan 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> Thanks. In many areas of life I am pretty much a useless lump so on the rare occasions I think I can be useful I may rather attempt to overcompensate!



Keep it up. Good work.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 25, 2020)

I read an interesting article on the BBC about how China can build a hospital in 6 days. Partly it's because the hospital will be prefabricated but also it is because of the massive resources they are able to throw at it.

Apparently this won't be the first time, during the last epidemic they built a hospital in 6 days, after the emergency it was discarded.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2020)

Here is a rather specific document that tries to model a few things based on a number of scenarios. It gets rather heavy and dull so instead I am deliberately quoting a couple of bits from it that are not really about its central areas of detail and may be of broader interest.



> Reports point to mildly symptomatic but infectious cases of 2019-nCoV, which were not a feature of SARS. Prompt detection and isolation of such cases will be extremely challenging, given the larger number of other diseases (e.g. influenza) which can cause such non-specific respiratory symptoms. While more severe cases will always need to be prioritised, control may depend upon successful detection, testing and isolation of suspect cases with the broadest possible range of symptom severity.





> Despite the recent decision of the WHO Emergency Committee to not declare this a Public Health Emergency of International Concern at this time, this epidemic represents a clear and ongoing global health threat. It is uncertain at the current time whether it is possible to contain the continuing epidemic within China. In addition to monitoring how the epidemic evolves, it is critical that the magnitude of the threat is better understood. Currently, we have only a limited understanding of the spectrum of severity of symptoms that infection with this virus causes, and no reliable estimates of the case fatality ratio – the proportion of cases who will die as a result of the disease. Characterising the severity spectrum, and how severity of symptoms relates to infectiousness, will be critical to evaluating the feasibility of control and the likely public health impact of this epidemic.





			https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-2019-nCoV-transmissibility.pdf
		


I dont know how much interesting stuff they will be the source of in future but here is their twitter feed anyway MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis (@MRC_Outbreak) on Twitter


----------



## weltweit (Jan 25, 2020)

From a BBC article:


> Elsewhere, a team at Lancaster University have published their estimates of the number of cases suggesting 11,000 have been infected this year. If true, that would be more than Sars


----------



## weltweit (Jan 26, 2020)

From another BBC article:


> The lockdown in Wuhan has caused panic in the city - the World Health Organization (WHO) has said that containing a large city like this is "new to science"


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

Regarding the 11000 estimate and the comparison of size to SARS, I'm having to study the SARS timeline because I dont think I started getting a grip on flu etc knowledge until well after the SARS outbreak ended. And I do want to make comparisons with this new coronavirus outbreak, especially as more data emerges. 

I'm not read to do so yet, but I can already tell that it might be a mistake to compare a particular estimate of cases in the current outbreak with the official number of suspected cases in the 2003 SARS. eg the number of SARS cases may have been underreported by an unknown order of magnitude, and perhaps if the same methodology for this latest estimate had been applied to the SARS outbreak, the number would be higher.

All the same, there are some indications that make it tempting to already see this 2019-nCoV outbreak as being a bigger thing in terms of numbers of people affected than SARS was. I should probably resist this temptation for at least a little longer though as we seem to be in the middle of a period of rapidly increasing numbers from lots of parts of China, and scale of further international cases in soming days will also offer clues.


----------



## Humberto (Jan 26, 2020)

So no one knows at this point? What do we know, if at all? Feel free to disregard if I'm knocking you out of step.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 26, 2020)

There's a university in Qld who reckon they'll come up with a vaccine In six weeks. There's been about 40 people tested here, who had recently arrived from China, and only four of them have been confirmed as having the virus.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 26, 2020)

Humberto said:


> So no one knows at this point? What do we know, if at all? Feel free to disregard if I'm knocking you out of step.


There are a lot of very reasonable articles on the BBC website suggesting that we do actually know quite a lot about what's happening. That's said it is early days in terms of the development of the crisis.


----------



## Humberto (Jan 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> There are a lot of very reasonable articles on the BBC website suggesting that we do actually know quite a lot about what's happening. That's said it is early days in terms of the development of the crisis.



Well i suppose it boils down to virulence, spread and deadliness. BBC news service is broken so I don't bother.


----------



## Cid (Jan 26, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> Most of my contacts in China are from Guangdong and Chongqing - Chongqing is pretty close to Wuhan (in that Wuhan is the next really major city along the Yangtze, and Hubei borders the wider municipality) and Guangdong is apparently the province with the second most cases. So this seems to be like 80-90% of my Wechat moments recently.



Actually have talked to some of my closer friends now, and sounds a lot worse than I thought. European friends who are a bit more open... Two of them have gone back to Europe, sounds like people who can leave are leaving (though obviously many would be on holiday anyway). Nanjing quiet, no 外卖, many places closed, people stay home. A lot of rumour about things being far worse going around. Also going to have a proper conversation with my closest Chinese friend early next week, see what they’re saying. Friend at 南大says his course will open 3 weeks later than planned. But yeah, sounds bleak.

Though, as elbows says, it doesn’t really tell us much about the actual situation. I think it does indicate that there's further mismanagement, even if just in terms of keeping people informed.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 26, 2020)

Couple of troubling things being reported this morning.



> Yi Guan, a senior Hong Kong-based virologist who helped identify the cause of the Sars virus, said he was much more worried about this disease, and feared the window for controlling its spread might already have closed.
> 
> “I’ve never felt scared. This time I’m scared,” Yi, who heads the University of Hong Kong’s state key laboratory of emerging infectious diseases, told China’s influential _Caixin_ magazine.
> 
> ...





> SHANGHAI, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The ability of the coronavirus to spread is getting stronger and infections could continue to rise, China's National Health Commission said on Sunday, with more than 2,000 people globally infected and 56 in China killed by the disease. National Health Commission Minister Ma Xiaowei, speaking at a press briefing, said knowledge of the virus was limited.
> 
> Ma said the incubation period for the coronavirus can range from one to 14 days, and that the virus is infectious during incubation, which was not the case with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), a coronavirus that originated in China and killed nearly 800 people globally in 2002 and 2003.
> 
> ...



The incubation period was being reported as 6 days, that's now 14. The New Scientist reports Chinese authorities have presented evidence of fourth-generation cases in Wuhan, which means one person has infected another, who went on to infect a third, who in turn infected a fourth.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 26, 2020)

All I have been able to pick up in relation to what's new is that that it is infectious during incubation which means people are passing it on before they realise they have it and that at the moment each infected person is passing it on to three more people.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 26, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> There's a university in Qld who reckon they'll come up with a vaccine In six weeks.



Looks like they are in a race with Imperial College.



> Professor Robin Shattock, from Imperial College London, said his team had “two vaccine candidates” developed from the genetic sequence of coronavirus provided by Chinese scientists, and some British experts are confident that a vaccine could be available within weeks.
> 
> Prof Shattock told Radio 4’s Today programme the vaccines would be ready for use in “animal models” by the middle of next month and they were ready to “rapidly move those into human studies” if required.
> 
> Sunday Telegraph



Although it sounds promising, it could be months before all human testing is done & manufacturing is up & running.


----------



## krtek a houby (Jan 26, 2020)

Watching the interviews with Chinese tourists arriving in Japan & they're buying lots of masks as there's (understandably) panic buying of masks back in parts of China.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 26, 2020)

> In terms of capacity, the report said Wuhan had 6.51 hospital beds and 3.08 doctors per 1,000 people - this isn't a straightforward indication of healthcare capacity (more doctors doesn't always mean better healthcare), but it does rank Wuhan among the more developed places in the world. The UK and US have 2.8 and 2.6 doctors per 1,000 heads, respectively



BBC


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> All I have been able to pick up in relation to what's new is that that it is infectious during incubation which means people are passing it on before they realise they have it and that at the moment each infected person is passing it on to three more people.



The three more people is a chain of infection, I read one report of someone passing it onto 14 people at stage one of that chain, each then can pass it onto a third lot of people, who then pass it on to a fourth lot. There's nothing to suggests it stops at stage 4, its just they only have evidence of that number of stages so far.

For example, if one passes it onto 14, and they go onto infect 14 more each, that's 196 people at stage 3, if those 196 also infect 14 more each, that's 2,744 from the original one person source. That's using the current worst numbers (14 x 4th generation), hopefully it will not be that bad, but it's too early for them to know how it will continue to spread.

Of course, we must remember many millions worldwide get flu every year, and 500,000+ can die from it each year.


----------



## andysays (Jan 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I read an interesting article on the BBC about how China can build a hospital in 6 days. Partly it's because the hospital will be prefabricated but also it is because of the massive resources they are able to throw at it.
> 
> Apparently this won't be the first time, during the last epidemic they built a hospital in 6 days, after the emergency it was discarded.


I wonder to what extent this new building is what we would consider a hospital capable of carrying out a wide range of medical treatments,  and to what extent it's more a containment or quarantine centre. 

The latter could be built more quickly, and is probably more along the lines of what they'll if this thing really takes hold.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 26, 2020)

I am beginning to wonder about my obsessive interest in this particular story. I'm not directly affected yet the news stories coming out about this outbreak seem compelling.


----------



## Winot (Jan 26, 2020)

I have a work trip planned in mid-February to Hong Kong and then onto Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Watching FCO advice carefully. My main concern at the moment is whether there will be travel restrictions.


----------



## Supine (Jan 26, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> The three more people is a chain of infection, I read one report of someone passing it onto 14 people at stage one of that chain, each then can pass it onto a third lot of people, who then pass it on to a fourth lot. There's nothing to suggests it stops at stage 4, its just they only have evidence of that number of stages so far.
> 
> For example, if one passes it onto 14, and they go onto infect 14 more each, that's 196 people at stage 3, if those 196 also infect 14 more each, that's 2,744 from the original one person source. That's using the current worst numbers (14 x 4th generation), hopefully it will not be that bad, but it's too early for them to know how it will continue to spread.
> 
> Of course, we must remember many millions worldwide get flu every year, and 500,000+ can die from it each year.



I don't think it works quite that way. There is no magic barrier at three transmitions that stop it. What they are saying is that based on how easy it transmits, how many people are in contact with the carrier, and how potent it is within the host it is averaging three infections per host. This can be reduced by reducing contacts and detecting hosts as soon as possible.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 26, 2020)

I find this quite terrifying as someone with a suppressed immune system.


----------



## Supine (Jan 26, 2020)

I've just read that an asymptomatic child has been found carrying the virus. If it's possible for someone to carry the disease and transmit it, without knowing, it's much harder to contain the virus.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 26, 2020)

Roadblocks are apparently going up across China, especially around Hubei province, where Wuhan is the capital - this sign over a road to neighbouring Jiangxi province says "Jiangxi People Welcome You."


----------



## Cid (Jan 26, 2020)

Supine said:


> I don't think it works quite that way. There is no magic barrier at three transmitions that stop it. What they are saying is that based on how easy it transmits, how many people are in contact with the carrier, and how potent it is within the host it is averaging three infections per host. This can be reduced by reducing contacts and detecting hosts as soon as possible.



The new scientist article CS linked to discusses generations specifically.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 26, 2020)

Supine said:


> I don't think it works quite that way.



Sorry, which bit? The 'for example' paragraph was just to illustrate how a chain can work, using the worst figures I've seen so far, not how it will.



> There is no magic barrier at three transmitions that stop it.



Indeed, as I said - There's nothing to suggests it stops at stage 4, its just they only have evidence of that number of stages so far. 



> The World Health Organization reported Thursday that there have been at least four generations of spread of the new virus, provisionally called 2019-nCoV, meaning a person who contracted the virus from a non-human source — presumably an animal — has infected a person, who infected another person, who then infected another person.
> 
> It’s not clear from a WHO statement whether transmission petered out after that point, or whether further generations of cases from those chains are still to come.
> 
> SOURCE



Present estimates suggest the average infection rate is between is between 1.4 & 2.5 people from one, well below that 14 figure, those could then go to stage 3, etc., but no suggestion it will stop there, especially considering the news today that it's getting stronger.  

Of course, infection rates can be reduced by reducing contact & detecting hosts earlier, but with the incubation period now being quoted as up to 14 days, before signs and symptoms show, that's not going to be easy.


----------



## Cid (Jan 26, 2020)

Information is bloody terrible. Officially 600ish infected in Wuhan but various figures floating about; 1万，9万 (10k, 90k). This rumour mill type stuff probably isn’t helping, China really needs to be looking at getting some independent experts in for verification.


----------



## Part-timah (Jan 26, 2020)

Yep, the Chinese have a tight propaganda machine run by hard authoritarian governance and it’s good at making disaster response appear superb. It’ll be safe to assume things are worse but by how much?

There’s an unmitigated torrent of noise online and its not easy to sort the wheat from the chaff.


----------



## maomao (Jan 26, 2020)

The Chinese Internet is full of stories of thousands of old people being sent home to die and not included on the official death figures. Bit of truth and a bit of conspiracy/fearmongering in that one I think.


----------



## nyxx (Jan 26, 2020)

Does anyone have info on what’s happening in Shanghai with regards to this?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 26, 2020)

nyxx said:


> Does anyone have info on what’s happening in Shanghai with regards to this?



New York Times is reporting one case so far, but they are on the highest-level emergency response against the virus, like the rest of China.









						Shanghai Launches Level 1 Emergency Response Over Coronavirus
					

The city is taking maximum emergency measures to prevent the spread of the deadly pneumonia-like virus as epidemic concerns grow.




					www.sixthtone.com


----------



## nyxx (Jan 26, 2020)

Thanks


----------



## JimW (Jan 26, 2020)

Read they've arrested the district Party secretaries where outbreak began in Wuhan, sacked mayor and put on disciplinary and milder punishments up to Hubei secretary.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 26, 2020)

JimW did they perhaps break some rules about wild animals in market places?


----------



## sihhi (Jan 26, 2020)

I am psychologicly near broken down, seeing stuff like
我们这的一个村感染了很多，还死了人马上火化，政府根本不让报，谁在微信发就拘留。
Our village has lots of infected, people who die get immediately burnt, government basically doesn't allow anyone to report, anyone who sends it on weixin gets detained.


----------



## Reno (Jan 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> JimW did they perhaps break some rules about wild animals in market places?


It’s more likely that they are on the chopping block for not acting fast enough and not being transparent enough.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 26, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I am psychologicly near broken down, seeing stuff like
> 我们这的一个村感染了很多，还死了人马上火化，政府根本不让报，谁在微信发就拘留。
> Our village has lots of infected, people who die get immediately burnt, government basically doesn't allow anyone to report, anyone who sends it on weixin gets detained.



Was that post by someone you know? Are there loads of posts like that? Just trying to get a measure on this, and understand why 'leaks' like that are not getting a mention in our media, even it they are mentioned as 'unconfirmed reports'. 

The authorities must be barking mad, it's not like they can keep something like that covered up for long, even in China.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Jan 26, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Was that post by someone you know, i.e a trusted source?




You want to edit that to add some basic compassion?


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Jan 26, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I am psychologicly near broken down, seeing stuff like
> 我们这的一个村感染了很多，还死了人马上火化，政府根本不让报，谁在微信发就拘留。
> Our village has lots of infected, people who die get immediately burnt, government basically doesn't allow anyone to report, anyone who sends it on weixin gets detained.




It must be so hard reading this stuff, even if isome of it might (hopefully) be misinformation it must be dreadfully upsetting and worrying.

I’m sending a lot of love out into the aether my right now x


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 26, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I am psychologicly near broken down, seeing stuff like
> 我们这的一个村感染了很多，还死了人马上火化，政府根本不让报，谁在微信发就拘留。
> Our village has lots of infected, people who die get immediately burnt, government basically doesn't allow anyone to report, anyone who sends it on weixin gets detained.



Jesus Christ...


----------



## sihhi (Jan 26, 2020)

我有个朋友，16-18号去过武汉。
昨天开始，突然胳膊开始刺痛，外观无异常。感觉很奇怪，像他之前得紫癜时候的那种疼
我想问下，这种情况可能是肺炎吗？
他也不感冒发烧，但看到这次肺炎没有什么典型症状，而这位朋友又是在家独居。他现在非常紧张。万一突然倒下，连救他的人都没有。

I have a friend who went to Wuhan between the 16th and 18th.
A sudden severe pain started in his arm yesterday, but his outward appearance was as normal. The pain is as when he previously has peliosis. I'm asking is this pneumonia?
He also hasn't got a cold or a temperature, but seeing as the pneumonia this time doesn't have the classical symptoms, my friend is staying at home alone. He is very extremely worried, there's no one to save him.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 26, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> You want to edit that to add some basic compassion?



I was editing when you posted.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 26, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Was that post by someone you know? Are there loads of posts like that? Just trying to get a measure on this, and understand why 'leaks' like that are not getting a mention in our media, even it they are mentioned as 'unconfirmed reports'.
> 
> The authorities must be barking mad, it's not like they can keep something like that covered up for long, even in China.



 
The source seems to be this Twitter account.

Uyghur activist Twitters also reporting that Han students returning from Wuhan to Xinjiang are also being detained in the concentration camps used for holding Uyghurs.

You said in your post that "they can't keep something like that covered up for long, even in China." Well, they managed to keep the detention of millions of ethnic minorities largely covered up within Mainland China, and to some extent were successful at obfuscating the situation overseas enough to create an element of doubt. 

It is not unheard of for terrible things to happen in villages in China that nobody ever hears about, or at least never go beyond rumours. I've heard some pretty grim rumours about how the HIV crisis in parts of Henan province was dealt with in the early 00s. Bear in mind a lot of the time it is local officials clearing up their mess, and central government or even provincial government might not get wind of it. If that post is true, it is unlikely to be ordered by central government, but there are scenarios that I could imagine leading to it - if the village officials had done something stupid to cause the virus to spread, then they may now be taking extreme measures to hide their mistake. We shouldn't believe things posted on Twitter outright, but I don't think it is too far-fetched a situation, although I really hope it isn't true.

The big political risk here is that usually this kind of thing that needs to be covered up is restricted to a specific location and they are able to contain news coming out about it. There were some serious pension protests by PLA veterans a year or two ago, which rumour has it got quite violent and there were also roads blocked and communications blocked out of effected counties. This could still be covered up because it was limited to certain counties.

However, the fact that this has thrown the entire country into a crisis is very unusual, and makes it much harder for them to control social media posts about it. The long term political consequences could be earth shattering.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 26, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> The source seems to be this Twitter account.
> 
> Uyghur activist Twitters also reporting that Han students returning from Wuhan to Xinjiang are also being detained in the concentration camps used for holding Uyghurs.




Puzzling that students are returning from Wuhan to Xinjiang, when the city is supposed to be in lock down.   

I hope this stuff is just rumours/misinformation, not that I trust the Chinese authorities, but these 'reports' are off the scale.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 26, 2020)

I don't think posting unverified Twitter rumours is helpful right now. The situation is frightening enough.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 26, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I don't think posting unverified Twitter rumours is helpful right now. The situation is frightening enough.



Well, the problem is the official sources are not reliable sources of information and information is being repressed. For Chinese news, unverified reports coming out on social media have more value than they do in jurisdictions where the media is generally reliable, biases notwithstanding. We certainly should treat them with skepticism, but piecing them together can give us some idea of what is going on. 

The difficulty in judging rumour and fact is likely contributing to the sense of panic, and I have a feeling that panic and over-reaction may turn out to be more of a problem than the disease itself, although time will tell.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 26, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Puzzling that students are returning from Wuhan to Xinjiang, when the city is supposed to be in lock down.
> 
> I hope this stuff is just rumours/misinformation, not that I trust the Chinese authorities, but these 'reports' are off the scale.



I guess they returned prior to the lockdown, which was only a few days ago. University terms finished earlier than that.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

Cid said:


> Information is bloody terrible. Officially 600ish infected in Wuhan but various figures floating about; 1万，9万 (10k, 90k). This rumour mill type stuff probably isn’t helping, China really needs to be looking at getting some independent experts in for verification.



The last official stats for China I saw were 1975 cases confirmed, which includes 324 severe cases and 56 deaths, and 49 patients recovered and discharged. There are also 2684 suspected cases.

I have not looked at Wuham-specific numbers for some time. I will have a look at some point to see if that data is available on an ongoing basis.

I dont think there is much point expecting China to do what it is unlikely any other country would be able to do at this stage. Its incredibly rare to get actual accurate numbers of people infected by something, if human to human spread happens readily and many cases are mild or asymptomatic. 

Rather what normally happens under such conditions is that later on, serological testing of samples of the population at large is used to give an indication of actual infection rates. This is where they figure out what antibodies are left in peoples systems for a good while ater the actual infection has passed, and look for those. 

Anyway, main point is that what it is realistic to expect of China and of infection stats in general depends on several aspects of the disease. And the latest comments about some of its characteristics do not give cause for hope, this is starting to sound like something that will not be contained or measured in the way SARS was.


----------



## JimW (Jan 26, 2020)

I will be astounded if the stories about cremation are true.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

I suppose in terms of the latest news, the 'the transmission ability of this virus is getting stronger' bit especially requires further info. I havent gone looking for expect opinion on this today yet, but I'm sort of expecting to see some confusion about what this actually refers to. Maybe I will be completely wrong about this, I'll let you know.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

JimW said:


> I will be astounded if the stories about cremation are true.



I'm not even going to try to start to deal with all the FUD. Faith in authorities and official info always goes pear shaped in these situations, and when its a country with the oppressive attributes of China, such concerns are going to be further magnified. Most of it will be bollocks but from the comfort of my chair in the UK, there would always be the risk that I would dismiss something that actually turned out to be true.


----------



## extra dry (Jan 26, 2020)

*A distessed and near tearful chinese coworker confided to me that her whole family, mother 50, brother 12, and grandma in her 90's, are trapped in the cities in  Wuhan province.
  I told her not worry too much.*


----------



## Cid (Jan 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> The last official stats for China I saw were 1975 cases confirmed, which includes 324 severe cases and 56 deaths, and 49 patients recovered and discharged. There are also 2684 suspected cases.
> 
> I have not looked at Wuham-specific numbers for some time. I will have a look at some point to see if that data is available on an ongoing basis.
> 
> ...



I forget where I saw it, be bbc/graun or something. Specifically cases in Wuhan. Somewhat academic; 600-1600 in Wuhan say. The other numbers are those doing the rounds on wechat and are certainly wrong, but indicate a lack of trust in official figures... hearsay like ‘a doctor is saying’ etc. My point is that there is very little clear info coming out, and that would not necessarily be the case elsewhere. I mean yes infection rates would be impossible to give accurately, but you would at least have confirmed reports from hospitals, interviews with doctors etc.


----------



## JimW (Jan 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> I'm not even going to try to start to deal with all the FUD. Faith in authorities and official info always goes pear shaped in these situations, and when its a country with the oppressive attributes of China, such concerns are going to be further magnified. Most of it will be bollocks but from the comfort of my chair in the UK, there would always be the risk that I would dismiss something that actually turned out to be true.


There's no political consequences to an official for just being in charge of a secondary outbreak site, but plenty for failure to report and the rest. Makes no sense.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 26, 2020)

Of course it is the weekend here and British journalists are not working. I expect there will be more information on Monday.


----------



## tim (Jan 26, 2020)

Detroit City said:


> I hope this isn't the end of the human race


It might contribute to the end of Xi's dreams.


----------



## Combustible (Jan 26, 2020)

nyxx said:


> Does anyone have info on what’s happening in Shanghai with regards to this?



The official number infected is 40 with 1 death. I am sure this is an underestimation, but I don't think quite as much as an underestimation as in Wuhan or the rest of Hubei. From what I gather they are not locked down, roads and trains are open, but a lot of venues are shutdown, university and school terms have delayed starts, and interprovincial buses are cancelled.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Of course it is the weekend here and British journalists are not working.



They don't stop working at weekends. 

Most news media organisations are 24/7 operations, otherwise we wouldn't have Sunday & Monday papers, nor Sky & BBC news channels at the weekend. Newspaper journalists will be currently updating websites & producing copy for the tomorrow's papers, the nationals go to press tonight.

The number tested in the UK has gone up to 52, all examinations were confirmed as negative, so it appears the only confirmed cases in Europe remain those in France.









						More than 50 people tested for coronavirus in the UK
					

More than 50 people have now been tested for coronavirus in the UK amid fears of the fatal infection spreading.




					www.standard.co.uk


----------



## weltweit (Jan 26, 2020)

cupid_stunt yes of course you are right about the journalists. I was just thinking of the empty newsrooms that you can see on the BBC broadcasts. But that is probably evenings.


----------



## Ax^ (Jan 26, 2020)

Well its a little frighting with the news stories

it does not appear to have the characterstics of the spanish flu, which is a little comforting
seems more deadly to people with underlying complants and the normal dangerours to people suspectable to the normal flu, the old and the young

as oppose to the spanish flu which killed the healthiest


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

Its not flu, and every time I see one of the shit tabloids call it flu I get annoyed.

I dont think there is anything comfortable about viral pneumonia.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 26, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> Uyghur activist Twitters also reporting that Han students returning from Wuhan to Xinjiang are also being detained in the concentration camps used for holding Uyghurs.




Not surprising, I think if the government can't keep everybody healthy, they are at least going to make sure the Uighurs get sick, too. They also don't seem to be losing a lot of sleep over it reaching Hong Kong.


----------



## Combustible (Jan 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> I have not looked at Wuham-specific numbers for some time. I will have a look at some point to see if that data is available on an ongoing basis.



This is in Chinese but has the official numbers by location






						全球新冠病毒最新实时疫情地图_丁香园
					

丁香园、丁香医生整合各权威渠道发布的官方数据，通过疫情地图直观展示，持续更新最新的新型冠状病毒肺炎的实时疫情动态。



					3g.dxy.cn


----------



## Ax^ (Jan 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its not flu, and every time I see one of the shit tabloids call it flu I get annoyed.
> 
> I dont think there is anything comfortable about viral pneumonia.



Compare to the first global outbreak of the H1N1 virus this is not looking biblical
but fair point it viral pneumonia


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> Rather what normally happens under such conditions is that later on, serological testing of samples of the population at large is used to give an indication of actual infection rates. This is where they figure out what antibodies are left in peoples systems for a good while ater the actual infection has passed, and look for those.



I should also mention that unless serological testing has been done, its hard to come up with reasonable figures for things like mortality rate. Because the mild and asymptomatic cases mostly get missed, skewing the picture, and making the mortality rate look worse than it actually is.


----------



## Cid (Jan 26, 2020)

It’s probably also worth noting that that has full recoveries at 42. I suppose death rate isn’t really complete until you’re sure someone has recovered. Or died.


----------



## Cid (Jan 26, 2020)

E.g the confirmed death rate in Wuhan (45/618) would be 7.18%. Though I’m sure the various epidemiologists involved have their reasons for sticking to lower figures.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

Cid said:


> It’s probably also worth noting that that has full recoveries at 42. I suppose death rate isn’t really complete until you’re sure someone has recovered. Or died.



Yes thats one of a bunch of reasons why even the best possible data will lag behind.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

Cid said:


> E.g the confirmed death rate in Wuhan (45/618) would be 7.18%. Though I’m sure the various epidemiologists involved have their reasons for sticking to lower figures.



The number is all over the place and probably most of the experts involved dont think those numbers mean much at this stage anyway. Or at the very least they pay attention to the numbers but expect them to evolve, possibly to a significant extent.

And sometimes there is detail in the language used that makes a difference. For example a few days ago I think I saw some Hong Kong scientists giving a 14% case-fatality rate, but the crucial detail on that one was that it applied only to those who were hospitalised by the coronavirus. As such its a number that can actually be fully based on the data we actually have, rather than all the unknown, mild, non-hospitalised cases. But even in that more limited domain, its still a little early for such estimates, and the raw numbers are changing so frequently at the moment that I assume most stuff I am reading is out of date by the time they've published.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 26, 2020)

Wuhan residents say they've been turned away from hospitals despite having symptoms so whatever figures they're giving for the  number of cases are probably off by thousands. I'm not sure why they even bothered  sealing the city off after 5 million people had already left.









						5 million left Wuhan before lockdown, 1,000 new virus cases expected
					

Health commission says battling the epidemic is becoming more complicated as scientists discover virus is infectious even during its incubation period.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 26, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> Well, the problem is the official sources are not reliable sources of information and information is being repressed. For Chinese news, unverified reports coming out on social media have more value than they do in jurisdictions where the media is generally reliable, biases notwithstanding. We certainly should treat them with skepticism, but piecing them together can give us some idea of what is going on.
> 
> The difficulty in judging rumour and fact is likely contributing to the sense of panic, and I have a feeling that panic and over-reaction may turn out to be more of a problem than the disease itself, although time will tell.



Yeah. I don't need you to explain China to me, thanks.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 26, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Yeah. I don't need you to explain China to me, thanks.



TBF, whilst they quoted you, I don't think the reply was specifically directed at you, more a general post for everyone reading the thread.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Wuhan residents say they've been turned away from hospitals despite having symptoms so whatever figures they're giving for the  number of cases are probably off by thousands. I'm not sure why they even bothered  sealing the city off after 5 million people had already left.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Thanks for the article, which includes updates from the last figures we talked about (now 2047 China cases and 56 deaths).

As for the 'why they even bothered sealing off the city' thing, even without the revelation that 5 million people had left, we were talking about the horse already having bolted, and the picture now points even further in that direction.

The article has slightly more words on the stuff that I said might confuse experts. I've not found expert commentary on this stuff yet so I'll have my own stab at it.



> “Some patients have normal temperatures and there are many milder cases. There are hidden carriers,” he said.
> 
> Ma said also that the virus had adapted to humans and appeared to have become more transmissible.
> “There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult.”



Yeah, this is linked to why optimism about containment has probably plummeted in recent days. I wont be surprised if the framing of what we are dealing with changes this week as a result.

My suggestions of confusion in regards 'virus is becoming more transmissible' is probably a language thing. In part its a tense thing, eg I would be more likely to say that if there was a change it already happened a while ago, or that it is our understanding and evidence of how transmissible it is that has changed, not the actual reality of the virus.

I'd put it like that for a few reasons, one of which relates to my next point.



> The authorities had also not ruled out the possibility of the virus mutating in the future, he said, which meant it could spread to different age groups.
> 
> To date, most of the people infected are in the 40-60 age range, health officials said earlier.



I'm pretty sure that bit will make some experts groan. Because years ago some very real concerns about how things can mutate over time were explained to the media, in connection with H5N1 bird flu, and despite a kernel of truth to this stuff, its sort of taken on an oversimplified media myth life of its own in the years since. I cannot do the subject proper justice now, and there are a bunch of mutation-related things that particular branches of science need to take an interest in. But the main mutations they worry about tend to be the ones that make a virus good at spreading between people in the first place. ie something that clearly already happened with this coronavirus, otherwise we'd only be seeing cases with more direct links to the wild animal market.

Plus in this  particular example there is a glaring contradiction. The idea that at the moment the virus is not spreading to certain age groups. That idea is unsafe, because so many of the known cases so far are the serious ones that required hospitalisation, and because they've just been acknowledging the 'hidden carriers', who could be in any age group. They are mostly hidden so the data just isnt there much yet, including their ages. But at least one of the discovered asymptomatic cases reported on so far was in a young child, for example.

Anyway, experts groan because they get bored of answering slightly misconcieved questions from journalists about the mutation threat. Largely because the threat most of the experts are focussed on is the one that already exists, the virus as it is now. Broadly speaking, the mutation stuff is more the sort of thing that is focussed on when trying to get people to take funding seriously, or trying to ensure that vigilance and surveillance levels remain high in situations where people are dealing with a small animal->human outbreaks where human->human spread seems rather limited, and they must guard against people not realising that the picture could evolve into something with wider spread potential. This latter thing might have been a feature at some early stage in Wuhan, or it might just be that by the time any alarming signs were seen at all, the reality had already gone beyond that, and not much could have been done to reduce the lag between the true picture and our understanding of it.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

The caveat I should add to my thoughts is that it is always possible that statements made by officials are in part based on information we havent seen yet.

As this applies to transmission worsening, or mutations, I suppose there are a few possibilities. For example an impressive set of genetic info from a whole bunch of early cases has been shared online, and analysis of these has suggeted very little variation between them. If later samples turn out to show more variety, then talk of mutations has some legitimate point. Especially if any of them are in areas where we actually know something about the function or implication of the mutation, eg increased affinity to infect humans.

By the way it. was really interesting what they were able to deduce from the lack of variation in the initial sample set. 









						DNA sleuths read the coronavirus genome, tracing its origins and looking for dangerous mutations
					

As epidemiologists race to contain the outbreak of a novel #coronavirus, they’re getting backup from the explosion in genetic technologies




					www.statnews.com
				






> By comparing the two dozen genomes, scientists can address the “when did this start” question. The 24 available samples, including from Thailand and Shenzhen as well as Wuhan, show “very limited genetic variation,” Rambaut concluded on an online discussion forum where virologists have been sharing data and analyses. “This is indicative of a relatively recent common ancestor for all these viruses.”
> 
> Given what’s known about the pace at which viral genomes mutate, if nCoV had been circulating in humans since significantly before the first case was reported on Dec. 8, the 24 genomes would differ more. Applying ballpark rates of viral evolution, Rambaut estimates that the Adam (or Eve) virus from which all others are descended first appeared no earlier than Oct. 30, 2019, and no later than Nov. 29.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

An example of an expert groaning several days ago, in case I wasnt clear wtf sort of thing I was on about.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

Sounds like the national holiday is being extended to Feb 2nd to try to help reduce the spread.

And the Director-General of the WHO is travelling to Beijing.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> And the Director-General of the WHO is travelling to Beijing.



Not sure that'll help, the World Health Organization has so far refused to declare the outbreak "a public health emergency of international concern", which is hardly surprising, because it took them 8 months to declare the Ebola outbreak as such, they are not fit for purpose.



> Ebola exposed WHO as unable to meet its responsibility for responding to such situations and alerting the global community," said an independent panel of experts in 2015 that included members from the Harvard Global Health Institute and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
> The panel went further, suggesting the establishment of a new global health committee within the UN Security Council to declare outbreaks and international emergencies for more timely responses.











						The World Health Organization should sound the alarm on Wuhan coronavirus | CNN
					

As the Wuhan coronavirus continues to spread around the world, the World Health Organization's decision to hold off on declaring the outbreak "a public health emergency of international concern" is baffling.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## Supine (Jan 26, 2020)

There are presumably big implications to labelling it ‘of international concern’. If the cases reported outside China start turning into localised and hard to contain outbreaks I imagine they would escalate their assessment as required. So far I haven’t seen any reports of this multiplying outside of China. Hopefully it won’t.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 26, 2020)

It seems the authorities in Wuhan are going to permit foreign nationals to leave, there seem to be some delegations organising flights for their people.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

Some WHO failures are down to the political context. Global health is not a realm free from such concerns, and at the very least the WHO have been naive with the current PHEIC system. Its sensible to have a committee to make the decision, and its completely normal that not everyone on the committee will agree. But because the current system is just binary, the political (including economic) pressures that lurk behind such decisions are magnified. A more nuanced systems would allow for more wiggle room, and we'd have seen the level of alert/emergency raised already, instead of this wait to see when some arbitrary threshold is reached and the binary PHEIC switch is flicked.

If I had my way then the entire world and humanity would be ordered differently, so the political considerations would not be the same at all. But since we have the current shitty order it is no surprise that the WHO inherits various terrible flaws as a result.

I do tend to temper my frustration with entities such as the WHO a bit at times like this though, for several reasons. Firstly some of the criticism is from idiots who expect impossible feats of containment. Or conspiracy idiots. Secondly, in outbreaks such as SARS, health workers are on the front lines of risk, and many victims end up coming from their ranks. Including WHO staff. One of the victims of SARS was Carlo Urbani in 2003, a WHO infectious disease specialist who was in Vietnam. He died, and was one of at least 38 staff who were infected by an early SARS patient who had travelled after been infected in a Hong Kong hotel outbreak that was itself caused by another doctor.


----------



## Supine (Jan 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> It seems the authorities in Wuhan are going to permit foreign nationals to leave, there seem to be some delegations organising flights for their people.



I bet they end up in quarantine


----------



## weltweit (Jan 26, 2020)

Supine said:


> I bet they end up in quarantine


Yes, that probably would be wise!!


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

A bit more on Dr Urbani since I had mentioned him without the full context.









						WHO remembers Dr Carlo Urbani as a hero who fought SARS
					

WHO celebrates the 15th death anniversary of Dr Carlo Urbani- who died fighting SARS on 29 March 2003




					www.who.int
				






> Dr Urbani, an expert in parasitic infections, was working in the WHO Country office in Hanoi at the time that SARS, a highly infectious and lethal disease, started to spread. In early 2003, while serving as an infectious disease specialist, he responded to a request from the French Hospital in Hanoi to assist in investigating a “severe case of flu”.
> 
> After examining the patient, his diagnosis was clear: this was an unusual case of an “unknown contagious disease”. Responding to the gravity of the situation, Dr Urbani alerted WHO headquarters in Geneva, Switzerland. His prompt action helped to contain the epidemic by triggering a global public health response that eventually saved the lives of countless people.
> 
> ...


----------



## Part-timah (Jan 26, 2020)

Chinese make an unlikely claim that people can transmit before showing symptoms referenced in this CNN article: China says coronavirus can spread before symptoms show -- calling into question US containment strategy

What I did find surprising is the mentioned incubation period of 2 weeks. If this is true then all these temperature taking efforts on borders is a particularly ineffective containment tactic.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

Why do you think its an unlikely claim?

Its true that I hadnt seen much in the way of explanation in the media for what details in particular lead to the claim, a claim which has been widely reported today. But there are a bunch of famous diseases that can spread at that stage so its not unthinkable, its just something people were hoping wasnt going to be true of this outbreak because it wasnt really seen with SARS.

Anyway I probably found the detail I was seeking, via someone on twitter linking to an article from the official state news agency. I had to use machine translation but it seemd to do a pretty good job. I'm not quoting the complete story, just the key bit:



> "We encountered a patient who came to Hangzhou from Wuhan to attend a conference. When he arrived in Hangzhou, he did not have any symptoms. He did not have the typical symptoms of cough and fever. But it didn't take long for a few colleagues he had contacted to be infected. Symptoms appeared one after another. But at this time, he still did not have the disease himself. After returning to Wuhan at the end of the meeting, he did not get the disease after another two days. "Sheng Jifang introduced.
> 
> Sheng Jifang said that after different people are infected with the new coronavirus, the course of disease development and clinical symptoms may be very different. It is possible that this person developed symptoms immediately after infection, while another person had no obvious symptoms during the incubation period after infection. Therefore, it is difficult for ordinary citizens to identify.



Google translated from 专家：新型冠状病毒潜伏期没有任何典型症状的时候或已具备传染性-新华网

Main bit I would think should be changed to make more sense is that 'he did not get the disease after another two days' is most likely to really mean 'he did not show symptoms of the disease for another two days'.


----------



## Part-timah (Jan 26, 2020)

That’s interesting case but there’s a posdibility that person was the vector.

The reason for the doubt is that a lot of symptoms of flu type viral infections are the direct results of the replication of viruses e.g. coughing up gunk made up partly from dead cells used for the growth of infection. Of course this coughing helps spread the microbes.

Other vectors need considering. Sharing resources at conference could be one. We cannot know from that for certain. The next couple of weeks may answer this question. Grim stuff.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

With some illnesses it seems that the asymptomatic cases, of which will there will be many, are still able to shed the virus, so they can still transmit it to others. Its just that the rate of shedding may be substantially lower than symptomatic cases, for reasons including some of the symptoms helping to spread the disease like you mentioned.

Anyway yes I am expecting our sense of the picture to evolve quite a bit in the next week. And I dont want to get too hung up on the 'how much are asymptomatic cases spreading it' question without remembering that this is part of a larger overarching question about transmissibility in general. Whatever the details of the vectors that are responsible for the spread seen so far actually turn out to be, and however long it takes us to understand them correctly, the magnitude of confirmed cases in different places will tell its own story in the days ahead. One that will invite some assumptions that are probably quite reasonable.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 26, 2020)

If it's the case that people can be infectious without showing signs of the virus, then how can it be contained?


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2020)

Lupa said:


> If it's the case that people can be infectious without showing signs of the virus, then how can it be contained?



Well thats one of the reasons the mood has sort of changed a bit in recent days. Not the only one though, the evolution of the number of cases and their locations needs to be sufficiently worrying in order for these other alarming possibilities to resonate. 

From what I can tell via things like twitter, some people who work in relevant disciples are at a slightly awkward moment where they are now feeling the need to ready themselves for the grim, 'containment isnt going to be possible' scenario, without yet considering it appropriate to completely ditch the previous containment possible scenario.

For example:


----------



## SpookyFrank (Jan 26, 2020)

Lupa said:


> If it's the case that people can be infectious without showing signs of the virus, then how can it be contained?



Well, if the incubation period was very short and human to human transmission remained rare, then it could be theoretically possible to track down and quarrantine all the people who had contact with the original source. Some people would slip the net but most of those would not infect others. If all those infected developed recongisable symptoms, that would also help in their identification and containment.

What we seem to have here is a long incubation period, many asymptomatic or mild cases, and relatively easy transmission. That's a triple whammy of bad news for any containment efforts.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

Due to the passage of time since we last spoke about modelled estimates for total cases, numbers from such models will be considerably higher by now. To the extent that one of the people involved with the report we talked about the other day, was on Sunday giving a figure of 100,000 as his best guess at the present reality.









						Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn
					

UK government urged to reassure public that NHS is ready for cases within days




					www.theguardian.com
				




(the original model I mentioned assumed 4000 as the total number of cases by 18/1/2020, with uncertainty range bounds of 1000-9700, and obviously we are quite a way past the 18th now, plus certain assumptions may have changed).


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

Latest official numbers:

New cases:


> At 04:00 on January 26, 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) reported 769 new confirmed cases and 137 new severe cases There were 24 new deaths (24 in Hubei Province), 2 new cured cases and 3806 new suspected cases.



Totals so far:


> As of 24:00 on January 26, the National Health and Health Commission had received a total of 2,744 confirmed cases in 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities), 461 cases of severe cases, 80 cases of deaths, and 51 cases of hospitalized cures. There are 5794 suspected cases.
> At present, 32,799 close contacts have been traced, 583 people were released from medical observation on the same day, and 30,453 people are currently receiving medical observation.


----------



## Part-timah (Jan 27, 2020)

From Imperial yesterday: News / Wuhan Coronavirus

That 60% figure for containment is worrying.


----------



## Part-timah (Jan 27, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> From Imperial yesterday: News / Wuhan Coronavirus
> 
> That 60% figure for containment is worrying.



“We estimate that, on average, each case infected 2.6 (uncertainty range: 1.5-3.5) other people up to 18thJanuary 2020, based on an analysis combining our past estimates of the size of the outbreak in Wuhan with computational modelling of potential epidemic trajectories. This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak.”


----------



## bellaozzydog (Jan 27, 2020)

Whistle blower saying 90,000 effected


----------



## Cid (Jan 27, 2020)

This from the bbc has a few bits of on-the-ground stuff, not much from inside hospitals though. Also 461 in critical condition is... worrying (though given their confirmed and suspected case figures, that’s about 1/18).

On graun stream a few bits from the usual gamut of teachers.

Sounds like everything has shut down more than anything else. Frustrating that there still essentially no confirmed reporting from inside hospitals. Not especially surprising, given this is China. But it‘s just going to increase feelings of panic and uncertainty there (and to some extent here).


----------



## Cid (Jan 27, 2020)

bellaozzydog said:


> Whistle blower saying 90,000 effected



It’s a wechat rumour that has been doing the rounds. Apparently from a doctor... it’s basically impossible for someone to know that though.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 27, 2020)

WeChat  rumours of virus is from a known lab in the region - not from animals. 99% unsubstantiated bollocks so don’t take it as fact .


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> WeChat  rumours of virus is from a known lab in the region - not from animals. 99% unsubstantiated bollocks so don’t take it as fact .



That bullshit was much more predictable than the virus. It isnt based on any supposed detail or incident at all, or anything about the characteristics of the virus. Its based entirely on the fact that Wuhan has a lab with a suitably high biosecurity rating, that does things including coronavirus research. All that is necessary for the rumour is for someone prone to that sort of thinking to learn that lab location fact, and thats it, we get this unsubstantiated shit.

There is an overlap between this and real stuff that can actually happen in the real world, but only when joined by some relevant facts that point properly in that direction. For example after the 2003 SARS outbreak was dealt with, there were a handful of sporadic cases the season afterwards, and these were often linked to lab workers and accidents. All of which were dealt with without big outbreaks resulting. And I already spoke about how H1N1 flu pandemic of 1977 is suspected to have stemmed from a lab incident. In that case the idea was prompted by virus characteristics - it was the same strain of flu that had last been seen in the wild 20 years previously. If it had been lurking in the wild somewhere for 20 years then it should have evolved over that period in various ways, but it hadnt, it was still the same or very close to a strain that used to exist in the wild but had only been seen in labs for decades since.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

Cid said:


> It’s a wechat rumour that has been doing the rounds. Apparently from a doctor... it’s basically impossible for someone to know that though.



Yeah. Its not the sort of figure a doctor is magically going to know either (or a nurse like with the previous similar rumour).

But it is the sort of figure we are starting to hear that some estimates, models and best guesses are coming out with in regards the current level of infections. And such estimates are the sort of thing I might expect to see talked about and paid attention to by the health community. So it might not just be a number someone has plucked out of thin air, but in any case regardless of the source we can only interpret it properly by understanding the methodology used to come up with the number.


----------



## maomao (Jan 27, 2020)

In Tianjin (700 miles from Wuhan) restaurants are so quiet in what should be one of the busiest weeks of the year that they're selling their food stocks from stalls on their doorsteps.  Some bargains to be had apparently but this is going to hammer the economy especially as it could go on for months.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 27, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> WeChat  rumours of virus is from a known lab in the region - not from animals. 99% unsubstantiated bollocks so don’t take it as fact .



99% is a conservative estimate.


----------



## Cid (Jan 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> Yeah. Its not the sort of figure a doctor is magically going to know either (or a nurse like with the previous similar rumour).
> 
> But it is the sort of figure we are starting to hear that some estimates, models and best guesses are coming out with in regards the current level of infections. And such estimates are the sort of thing I might expect to see talked about and paid attention to by the health community. So it might not just be a number someone has plucked out of thin air, but in any case regardless of the source we can only interpret it properly by understanding the methodology used to come up with the number.



I assume you meant to quote me there... I’ve looked at the video now (well, assume it is anyway), bit unclear as the subtitles don’t seem to be quite right, but my chinese isn’t really much better.


----------



## ffsear (Jan 27, 2020)

this map updates live





						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

Cid said:


> I assume you meant to quote me there... I’ve looked at the video now (well, assume it is anyway), bit unclear as the subtitles don’t seem to be quite right, but my chinese isn’t really much better.



Cheers, I corrected my quote.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 27, 2020)

8ball said:


> 99% is a conservative estimate.



Good job Dr Jazzz isn't around here anymore, he would be right on this 'theory'.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

A few of a FT journalists tweets from Wuhan that give a more nuanced impression of what its like there at the moment:


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

From the 'faith in public officials' department of doh:



> Hubei governor Wang Xiaodong said in a press conference on Sunday that the government was reinforcing medical supplies. But the press conference unleashed more public anger, as Wang corrected himself twice about the number of face masks being made available in the province.
> Wang first put the number at 10.8 billion, then changed it to 1.8 billion before correcting himself again to say that 1.8 million masks were being provided.





> Public anger was also directed at Wang for not wearing a face mask during the press conference. Other officials at the briefing did wear masks, but incorrectly. Hubei provincial government secretary general Bie Bixiong did not cover his nose, while Wuhan mayor Zhou appeared to wear his mask upside down.











						Li Keqiang orders Wuhan hospitals to admit patients as city struggles
					

Li visits patients and medical staff and says 2,000 more nurses will be sent in days.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## JimW (Jan 27, 2020)

Local expat blog had heard rumours of fever clinics in Beijing being overwhelmed, so wandered down to Chaoyang hospital to find a few people in the waiting room in an orderly queue. Presume most of the other rumours will be as accurate.


----------



## Cid (Jan 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> A few of a FT journalists tweets from Wuhan that give a more nuanced impression of what its like there at the moment:







JimW said:


> Local expat blog had heard rumours of fever clinics in Beijing being overwhelmed, so wandered down to Chaoyang hospital to find a few people in the waiting room in an orderly queue. Presume most of the other rumours will be as accurate.



Yeah, it’s good to see these more rational experiences coming through a bit.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

By the way, its quite possible that the 'suspected cases' official figure from China is based on much more than suspicion, and involves lots of cases that have tested positive at the local level, but wont be counted as confirmed until a 2nd test done centrally comes back positive.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 27, 2020)

A had a heating engineer around earlier to service the boiler, according to him we have over 50 confirmed cases in the UK already, I pointed out that over 50 had been tested, but all were negative.

His reply, 'that's what the government & MSM are telling you', I've heard the truth on youtube.


----------



## MrCurry (Jan 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> With some illnesses it seems that the asymptomatic cases, of which will there will be many, are still able to shed the virus, so they can still transmit it to others.



I was wondering if you know what causes some cases to be asymptomatic. In general terms I mean, not specifically regarding this virus, as I’m sure its behaviour is not fully known.

Is it that the patient just has a super strong immune system, so the infection, although present, doesn’t make them ill?  Or is it maybe down to the initial infection occurring with a smaller amount of virus than is absorbed into patients who become properly ill? Or something else?


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

I dont know, but as I probably have more time available than the current amount of coronavirus reports will fill, I will look into it and let you know more another time.

Certainly its the sort of subject where in the past I've been very dismayed at current levels of understanding, which were much less than I expected. And its often completely missing from peoples understanding of things like flu, where they think that mild cases must not be proper flu at all, which is not how this stuff actually works.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

I mean I'm going to guess that there are a bunch of different reasons. There is quite.a lot of variation between people in so many areas, and I think most of ithe time the reasons why are poorly understood, especially when so much medical and research effort is understandably focussed on cases with symptoms and stuff that is in some way easily visible.

Its tempting to pick multiple sclerosis as an area to investigate, because some estimates suggest 25% of MS cases are asymptomatic and are only discovered after death or by accident or not at all, with the patient displaying no clinical symptoms to cause a MS investigation in the first place. But given the context you've asked the question in, probably I should pick something like flu instead.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 27, 2020)

A student returned to Waterford from Wuhan and put himself into self imposed quarantine...according to rte news. 
He arrived here yesterday. He had left Wuhan before the lockdown.
Drs say nothing to worry about. But if incubation is 14 days how can they know the lad is not carrying the virus? 


			Redirect Notice
		


Waterford Institute of Technology stated:
"“He is not ill and as a precaution he has agreed not to attend college and stay in his accommodation by himself for the time being,” a WIT spokeswoman said.

“We have been in touch with the HSE and are being directed by them.”


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 27, 2020)

> More than 70 people tested for coronavirus in the UK have received negative results.
> 
> A further seven people tested in Scotland also returned negative results.



Who's going to tell the Irish Examiner that Scotland hasn't actually left the UK yet?


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 27, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Who's going to tell the Irish Examiner that Scotland hasn't actually left the UK yet?



True.  
Maybe Scotland just hasn't told the UK yet?


----------



## 8ball (Jan 27, 2020)

Lupa said:


> True.
> Maybe Scotland just hasn't told the UK yet?



Check youtube.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Drs say nothing to worry about. But if incubation is 14 days how can they know the lad is not carrying the virus?



There are no doctors in that article saying it is nothing to worry about, and they dont know that the lad is not carrying the virus, which is why he is under self-quarantine at the moment. Seems like a very reasonable approach to me, perhaps even excessive. Certainly not lax.

Incubation period is a range, most cases will manifest themselves earlier than that. But obviously when it comes to certain planning and containment things, you have to allow for the longest incubation period possible, even if most cases have incubation of a much shorter length. But since 14 days has been settled on as this figure for now, it will pop up a lot. I'd rather it always be mentioned as the full range, which I think is currently estimated at 1-14 days, with a lot of the action being seen in the 6-8 day range.


----------



## Idaho (Jan 27, 2020)

Fear, anger, lust and anxiety all keep those clicks coming. Nothing matters other than an emotional response and those clicks.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 27, 2020)

Idaho said:


> Fear, anger, lust and anxiety all keep those clicks coming. Nothing matters other than an emotional response and those clicks.



You missed gluttony, greed and sloth.


----------



## pesh (Jan 27, 2020)

and Sneezy


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Is it that the patient just has a super strong immune system, so the infection, although present, doesn’t make them ill?  Or is it maybe down to the initial infection occurring with a smaller amount of virus than is absorbed into patients who become properly ill? Or something else?



Before I even do any proper reading, I will share one personal thought on this. It may be some time before I discover whether this thought is backed up by any existing research, and it might be a subject for another thread and subforum by then, which I shall start if necessary.

I'm thinking that our ideas about what constitutes a super strong immune system probably need to get more complicated in order to appreciate asymptomatic disease. Lots of disease symptoms we experience are actually caused by our immune responses. So in my head the immune system that deals most suitably with an infection is not one that goes in super turbo charged with all guns blazing. Thats actually a sign of weakness and of failure. Rather, the one that is able to defeat the infection in a way thats best for the human concerned is the one that manages to do so in a laid back manner, without much fuss.

Dont get me wrong, that still means a strong immune system, its just that the word strong might be misleading when we imagine this stuff in action. Because obviously we have ample evidence of the bad stuff that happens to peoples whose immune systems are compromised, so I'm not trying to suggest something stupid. More that I would expect a bunch of asymptomatic stuff to be cases where the immune system, other aspects of that persons body, or other aspects of the particular virus thats got into them, has brushed it off without needing to resort to something that is noticed (as pain, temperature, swelling or whatever else) by the person involved. So yeah, balanced, prepared and capable more useful than being ready to Rambo.

Given that some of the worst cases of certain respiratory infections are often said to involve things like cytokine storms, this subject may even be somewhat on-topic. Cytokine storms being a dramatic example of various immune responses ending up cascading into something that overwhelms and upsets the balance of things, and the patients condition spirals downwards.

Also when considering how different people can react so differently to the same disease, we are probably not far along enough in our understanding of all the factors that go into making a person. For example since its now quite mainstream to consider the array of roles that gut flora have in human health, I find it incresingly hard to think about myself as a single organism, as opposed to something more akin to an ecosystem!


----------



## weltweit (Jan 27, 2020)

Do you have any idea how long a virus like this would survive outside a host?


----------



## WWWeed (Jan 27, 2020)

Looks like it's potentially come from bats to snakes to humans.








						Experts think bats are the source of the Wuhan coronavirus. At least 4 pandemics have originated in these animals.
					

Both the Wuhan coronavirus and the SARS virus likely jumped from bats to other animals, which then passed it to humans.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Do you have any idea how long a virus like this would survive outside a host?



I dont have a number in mind right now, I'll let you know if/when I do.

Certainly it is thought that surface material, quantity of virus deposited, temperature and humidity levels all have a big effect on this. Probably one of the factors in why some diseases are seasonal.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

WWWeed said:


> Experts think bats are the source of the Wuhan coronavirus. At least 4 pandemics have originated in these animals.
> 
> 
> Both the Wuhan coronavirus and the SARS virus likely jumped from bats to other animals, which then passed it to humans.
> ...



Bats have long been implicated as coronavirus hosts. And an intermediate animal is often thought to be involved in the animal->human outbreaks in the past. But expert opinion did not seem kind towards the snake theory, I'm probably not going to get a chance to go back and check but I think they thought the methodology of the study that implicated snakes was flawed.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 27, 2020)

First confirmed coronavirus case 'most likely' already in UK health chief warns
					

Director of health protection for Public Health England expects there are cases already in Britain, but said country is ready to cope.




					inews.co.uk


----------



## 8ball (Jan 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Do you have any idea how long a virus like this would survive outside a host?



Coronsvirus (that being a whole family of viruses), I’d stick my neck out and say a small number of hours at most. Though in colder environments it may do better.

Total guess, I am not a virologist but know numbers for a couple of viruses etc.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> There are no doctors in that article saying it is nothing to worry about, and they dont know that the lad is not carrying the virus, which is why he is under self-quarantine at the moment. Seems like a very reasonable approach to me, perhaps even excessive. Certainly not lax.
> 
> Incubation period is a range, most cases will manifest themselves earlier than that. But obviously when it comes to certain planning and containment things, you have to allow for the longest incubation period possible, even if most cases have incubation of a much shorter length.




It was rte news that said drs said the student was ok.  I thought that was weird. 
Maybe they're trying to stop people panicking? 
Rte news also claimed other students had gone to the college authorities because they were concerned.


----------



## Cid (Jan 27, 2020)

Lupa said:


> It was rte news that said drs said the student was ok.  I thought that was weird.
> Maybe they're trying to stop people panicking?
> Rte news also claimed other students had gone to the college authorities because they were concerned.



I suspect they just wanted to be relevant... 'We have someone related to current news story, we can do more personal interest stuff'. In all likelihood the student is fine, only a fraction of Wuhan's population was infected (as far as we know) before the lockdown. However it's obviously a sensible precaution for them to be at home until a reasonable period has passed/tests have been run.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

Lupa said:


> It was rte news that said drs said the student was ok.  I thought that was weird.



Surely what would be weird would be a doctor saying the student was not ok, given their lack of symptoms.



> Maybe they're trying to stop people panicking?



That is usually a consideration when it comes to public health communication. A lot of the time its done without being in any way misleading. Dramatic examples of it being done in terrible ways can be found in human history for sure, but there is so much independent scrutiny via the net these days that some flavours of historical error would probably be hard to repeat in modern times.

There will still be times where I think a particular message is incomplete or misleading - a portion of me picking at things in the press including quotes from experts will be about this.

Completely covering up or delaying the release of particular data can still be an issue, and that can be hard to spot. Its not unusual to see certain establishment messages have a change in tone, before the public are actually treated to the data that lead to the change of message/policy/stance. Again in this modern era the timescales are all compressed, so we might only be talking about hours or a day. And sometimes it is actually valid to wait for extra confirmation of something before making it public, but people in government etc are still informed and may start to act on of preliminary findings in advance. I'd rather more open societies where we are all first class recipients of timely data, but it would have some interesting implications for things likepublic communication and panic prevention.

For example right now I have no way to detect or measure any lag between the figures China is publishing about confirmed cases, and the picture they have in private. There is bound to be some, and as has already come up in this thread, its also very easy to use various models to come up with all sorts of numbers and assumptions that get used in policy decision making in the absence of real data.



> Rte news also claimed other students had gone to the college authorities because they were concerned.



There will be some reasonable responses and concerns, and there will also be some very grim human behaviour as a result of the current fears. A lot of the human suffering wont come directly from the virus at all, but rather some of the responses to it.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 27, 2020)

Lupa said:


> It was rte news that said drs said the student was ok.  I thought that was weird.
> Maybe they're trying to stop people panicking?
> Rte news also claimed other students had gone to the college authorities because they were concerned.



Well clearly they are, otherwise they would be in hospital, but it is not unreasonable for other students to be concerned.

What you need to do, is not to panic, you are probably in the safest part of Europe.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 27, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Well clearly they are, otherwise they would be in hospital, but it is not unreasonable for other students to be concerned.
> 
> What you need to do, is not to panic, you are probably in the safest part of Europe.



Not panicking...
But I have bought face masks and I have rooted out my sister's swimming goggles.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

By the way sorry that I edited in quite a bit more stuff into that last post after you had already liked it, this is a bad habit of mine!


----------



## Idaho (Jan 27, 2020)

8ball said:


> You missed gluttony, greed and sloth.


Not sure sloth really generates many clicks.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Do you have any idea how long a virus like this would survive outside a host?



I've only had time to hae a first initial stab at this tonight.

I'm using a technique where I find a report that has an obvious interest in reaching certain conclusions, and then I treat their findings as a suitably biased worst-case possibility.

In this case, a research report looking at coronavirus survival on a bunch of different surface materials. One where "This research was supported by the Copper Development Association, New York, and the International Copper Association, New York." so we would expect them to want to show that coronavirus could hang around for quite some time on various surfaces, but would have a much harder time on a copper surface. And yeah, thats what they found.

Anyway, point being that they summarised their findings as it having the potential to survive on surfaces for 'several days'.

As you can probably tell I am not bothering to give a proper overview of this report, and am far from describing it as the perfect answer to your question. I just chose it because it was the second one I found on the overall subject, and I dont have time to look for or read others today. But here it is anyway: Human Coronavirus 229E Remains Infectious on Common Touch Surface Materials

Note that they were using a different coronavirus. Hopefully this point will mostly go without saying when it comes to any other historical reports I dig up, since the current coronavirus is so new to us, plus all the scary coronavirus types (SARS,MERS) are subject to strict biosafety controls that reduces the scope for certain experiments and the amount of study in general.


----------



## Idaho (Jan 27, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Not panicking...
> But I have bought face masks and I have rooted out my sister's swimming goggles.


Vaseline inside your nose? That's recommended on airlines for people with weakened immune systems.


----------



## Cid (Jan 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> Before I even do any proper reading, I will share one personal thought on this. It may be some time before I discover whether this thought is backed up by any existing research, and it might be a subject for another thread and subforum by then, which I shall start if necessary.
> 
> I'm thinking that our ideas about what constitutes a super strong immune system probably need to get more complicated in order to appreciate asymptomatic disease. Lots of disease symptoms we experience are actually caused by our immune responses. So in my head the immune system that deals most suitably with an infection is not one that goes in super turbo charged with all guns blazing. Thats actually a sign of weakness and of failure. Rather, the one that is able to defeat the infection in a way thats best for the human concerned is the one that manages to do so in a laid back manner, without much fuss.
> 
> ...



Asymptomatic cases don't (necessarily) brush things off though... They simply become an environment where - for whatever reason - the pathogen and host are able to exist in something like a symbiotic relationship for a certain period of time. And, as you know, that can be very effective in terms of the transmission of the pathogen... The disease is still there, still spreading, just less so within the host. Looking at the figures for asymptomatic flu, which are far, far higher than I ever expected (somewhere from 50-80% depending on what you count as asymptomatic/who's asking) asymptomatic infections are perhaps more the norm than not. Fascinating area, not a rabbit hole I have time to go down though. And that's before thinking about the evolutionary and sociological side.

Tangent: I wonder whether it's some specific tick that causes a normal incubation/inactive period to be extended. You have to wonder whether typhoid Mary ever caught colds, or developed other illnesses (well, she died of pneumonia, but at 69 following a stroke and years of isolation), i.e whether it was something very specific to the way her body and the typhoid bacillus interacted, or something to do with her immune response to all diseases.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Jan 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> Before I even do any proper reading, I will share one personal thought on this. It may be some time before I discover whether this thought is backed up by any existing research, and it might be a subject for another thread and subforum by then, which I shall start if necessary.
> 
> I'm thinking that our ideas about what constitutes a super strong immune system probably need to get more complicated in order to appreciate asymptomatic disease. Lots of disease symptoms we experience are actually caused by our immune responses. So in my head the immune system that deals most suitably with an infection is not one that goes in super turbo charged with all guns blazing. Thats actually a sign of weakness and of failure. Rather, the one that is able to defeat the infection in a way thats best for the human concerned is the one that manages to do so in a laid back manner, without much fuss.
> 
> ...



I have a 'strong immune system' and it has good and bad points. Some infections I can shrug of more quickly than others, and I seem anecdotally to get fewer illnesses than the average person. Sometimes though my body makes a mountain out of a molehill and an ordinary cold will knock me on my arse for an extended period of time because my immune system hasn't got the memo that the bad stuff has gone and it can chill the fuck out now. Also live vaccines completely fuck me up, because my body doesn't know what 'attenuated' means. I'm now on medical advice not to have any more of them.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Jan 27, 2020)

Idaho said:


> Vaseline inside your nose? That's recommended on airlines for people with weakened immune systems.



Sounds daft to me. The mucus in your nose is constantly trapping stuff and dropping it down the back of your throat into the handy acid pit below. Shove vaseline up there and the cillia that shift the mucus won't work, so you'll just be keeping any nasties hanging around in a vulnerable part of your anatomy for longer.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 27, 2020)

Idaho said:


> Vaseline inside your nose? That's recommended on airlines for people with weakened immune systems.



Never heard of that. 
I doubt it would be enough protection for an immunocompromised patient. Considering that even when I go to the gp now they put me in isolation in a little storage room away from other patients. They haven't handed me a tub of vaseline......yet...


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Jan 27, 2020)

Cid said:


> Tangent: I wonder whether it's some specific tick that causes a normal incubation/inactive period to be extended. You have to wonder whether typhoid Mary ever caught colds, or developed other illnesses (well, she died of pneumonia, but at 69 following a stroke and years of isolation), i.e whether it was something very specific to the way her body and the typhoid bacillus interacted, or something to do with her immune response to all diseases.


She basically had a superpower - and a pretty good one at that.  Being effectively immune to pathogens (at least typhoid) - while killing people around you is an unfortunate side-effect - not a bad ability to have overall.  Given she was incarcerated for quite a while if she did suffer other illness they might be documented somewhere.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Jan 27, 2020)

I think that your immune system has a genetic component.  If your ancestors survived The Plague, its probably more likely that you would as well.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

Cid said:


> Asymptomatic cases don't (necessarily) brush things off though... They simply become an environment where - for whatever reason - the pathogen and host are able to exist in something like a symbiotic relationship for a certain period of time. And, as you know, that can be very effective in terms of the transmission of the pathogen... The disease is still there, still spreading, just less so within the host. Looking at the figures for asymptomatic flu, which are far, far higher than I ever expected (somewhere from 50-80% depending on what you count as asymptomatic/who's asking) asymptomatic infections are perhaps more the norm than not. Fascinating area, not a rabbit hole I have time to go down though. And that's before thinking about the evolutionary and sociological side.



Yeah 'brush things off' was supposed to be a loose term covering stuff I'm not educated enough to talk in detail about at the moment, but it implied stuff which hampered its looseness. So thanks for expanding on those possibilities.

I'm glad we at least reached the point some years ago of understanding the probably scale of asymptomatic flu infections. I dont know as much has been done about the implications of this yet, partly because a bunch of the implications make certain pro-active containment measures seem a good deal less purposeful. So I wont be surprised if that rabbit hole is under-explored in general, it can be demoralising. Some would rather fight the tip of the iceberg that is actually visible, and let that bit form the overwhelming majority of their perceptions of disease. Those doing modelling work should at least see the opportunitiy in exploring the otherwise invisible.

By the way, the technique used in that asymptomatic flu study you linked to is the same sort of thing I was on about in terms of how health authorities can get data on the mild cases of this new coronavirus that wont present themselves or be discovered through contact tracing. The serological testing, looking for antibodies in a sample of the general population after the fact.

I dont know if there is much consensus about things like what proportion of flu transmission is caused by asymptomatic or very mild cases. Its on my list to investigate, though obviously I'd prefer if I could learn of such things as they pertain to a coronavirus rather than flu, given the current situation.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Jan 27, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> I think that your immune system has a genetic component.  If your ancestors survived The Plague, its probably more likely that you would as well.


There is also a blood group component apparently.  O makes you more suspectible to cholera it seems, and other groups to other diseases.  I'm O - thankfully cholera isn't really a risk here.


----------



## cyril_smear (Jan 27, 2020)

is it twelve monkeys time yet?


----------



## 8ball (Jan 27, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> I think that your immune system has a genetic component.  If your ancestors survived The Plague, its probably more likely that you would as well.



It has a very large genetic component, but I’m not sure it works like that.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

Cid said:


> You have to wonder whether typhoid Mary ever caught colds, or developed other illnesses (well, she died of pneumonia, but at 69 following a stroke and years of isolation), i.e whether it was something very specific to the way her body and the typhoid bacillus interacted, or something to do with her immune response to all diseases.



Some clues: Scientists get a handle on what made Typhoid Mary’s infectious microbes tick

I'll go back on topic now!


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

A wobbly start on the clear and consistent advice front:



> Officials said self-isolation meant staying at home, not going to work and keeping away from others, as you would if trying to avoid passing on a heavy cold. Public Health England initially said it was safe for people who were self-isolating to leave their homes to buy food, for example, but later changed their advice, telling people to ask friends or family to buy it or to get it delivered.



(a minor part of Britons in Wuhan will be offered help to leave, Hancock tells MPs )


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Jan 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> A wobbly start on the clear and consistent advice front:
> 
> 
> 
> (a minor part of Britons in Wuhan will be offered help to leave, Hancock tells MPs )


Cool - I'm going to tell my employer I've been to Wuhan over the weekend and need several weeks off.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> Cool - I'm going to tell my employer I've been to Wuhan over the weekend and need several weeks off.



For bonus points, ask them to bring some food round and then cough at them through the letterbox.

Meanwhile I've just seen that 33 environmental samples from the implicated Wuhan seafood market tested positive for the new coronavirus. But I've only seen a dodgy translation from a state news agency, and I havnt had the energy to check whether its been reported in the english-speaking press already in recent days. Plus its not surprising.


----------



## two sheds (Jan 27, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> Cool - I'm going to tell my employer I've been to Wuhan over the weekend and need several weeks off.



I'm not going down the shop tomorrow  

and may only start accepting packages with a facemask


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2020)

two sheds said:


> and may only start accepting packages with a facemask



If you have to sign for anything using the delivery persons phone or other modern fangled device, keep your hands away from the rest of you and everything else until you've washed them. Touchscreens could be a modern vector and the delivery ones always leap out in my mind when I consider this stuff.


----------



## two sheds (Jan 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> If you have to sign for anything using the delivery persons phone or other modern fangled device, keep your hands away from the rest of you and everything else until you've washed them. Touchscreens could be a modern vector and the delivery ones always leap out in my mind when I consider this stuff.



yes indeed i don't have a car so pretty well all I buy is across the web. 

Interesting idea that facemasks are basically to stop you touching mouth and nose afterwards. 

I've often thought we should stop bush/tree imports to avoid sudden oak death and ash dieback and things. Human version coming soon


----------



## WWWeed (Jan 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> Bats have long been implicated as coronavirus hosts. And an intermediate animal is often thought to be involved in the animal->human outbreaks in the past. But expert opinion did not seem kind towards the snake theory, I'm probably not going to get a chance to go back and check but I think they thought the methodology of the study that implicated snakes was flawed.


I guess it's early days still but it is the most plausible explanation I've heard so far. I don't think bats are sold for food in the wet markets but I know snakes are.

From https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext:


> By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients had been identified as having laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection. Most of the infected patients were men (30 [73%] of 41); less than half had underlying diseases (13 [32%]), including diabetes (eight [20%]), hypertension (six [15%]), and cardiovascular disease (six [15%]). Median age was 49·0 years (IQR 41·0–58·0). 27 *(66%) of 41 patients had been exposed to Huanan seafood market*. One family cluster was found. Common symptoms at onset of illness were fever (40 [98%] of 41 patients), cough (31 [76%]), and myalgia or fatigue (18 [44%]); less common symptoms were sputum production (11 [28%] of 39), headache (three [8%] of 38), haemoptysis (two [5%] of 39), and diarrhoea (one [3%] of 38). Dyspnoea developed in 22 (55%) of 40 patients (median time from illness onset to dyspnoea 8·0 days [IQR 5·0–13·0]). 26 (63%) of 41 patients had lymphopenia. All 41 patients had pneumonia with abnormal findings on chest CT. Complications included acute respiratory distress syndrome (12 [29%]), RNAaemia (six [15%]), acute cardiac injury (five [12%]) and secondary infection (four [10%]). 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died. Compared with non-ICU patients, ICU patients had higher plasma levels of IL2, IL7, IL10, GSCF, IP10, MCP1, MIP1A, and TNFα.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Jan 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> If you have to sign for anything using the delivery persons phone or other modern fangled device, keep your hands away from the rest of you and everything else until you've washed them.


I religiously wash my hands every time I've been outside - you never know what germs you come into contact with, especially chip and pin devices and touchscreens.  I've taken to using knuckles to punch in train ticket booking reference numbers on the fast ticket machines, and then using that gel hand sanitiser afterwards.  People are filthy.


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

WWWeed said:


> I guess it's early days still but it is the most plausible explanation I've heard so far. I don't think bats are sold for food in the wet markets but I know snakes are.



The problem was that the snake idea in particular was based on some genetic analysis which others involved in the field thought was flawed. Its way too technical a discussion for me, but if people would like to see a good example of it, see here: nCoV-2019 codon usage and reservoir (not snakes v2)


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> By the way, its quite possible that the 'suspected cases' official figure from China is based on much more than suspicion, and involves lots of cases that have tested positive at the local level, but wont be counted as confirmed until a 2nd test done centrally comes back positive.



Maybe I was right about this, but either way the number seems to have taken a big leap, which is not surprising at this stage. I've not read it from the normal sources yet but on one of those nice map graphical things its shot up to 4474 confirmed cases and 107 deaths for mainland China.

Link to map in question, which has probably been posted before: Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

Well I'm seeing slightly different numbers from different places compared to the ones I mentioned in last message, but in the same ballpark.


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

From some Guardian live updates page at Coronavirus: China death toll climbs to 106 with first fatality in Beijing – live updates


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 28, 2020)

The US is now advising against all but essential travel, as is Germany, I believe. In line with the rest of the country, my employer (a university) has delayed the start of the semester without a revised date. We were meant to start back on 24th Feb, so this is quite a possible extension. 

Although things aren't locked down in the sense that they are in poor Hubei Province, much is closed here now. We were previously in the southern province of Yunnan, but all restaurants and the majority of shops were abruptly closed on Sunday afternoon. I believe a lot of guesthouses were also instructed to not take new guests.

We had to take several flights across China to get home yesterday - airports are calm and running normally, although there is regular temperature screening. Most people are wearing masks, although not all.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 28, 2020)

This video is a bit spooky TBH.

Video clips on Chinese social media have emerged showing residents shouting encouragement and singing songs from their apartment windows at night, in an effort to boost each other's morale.


Does anyone know why some are shouting 'add oil'?


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 28, 2020)

"Add oil" is like "Let's go!" or "Power!"


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 28, 2020)

Thanks.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 28, 2020)

Apparently Carrie Lam also needs a lesson in mask-wearing, though at least the Hong Kong mask ban is definitely over.


----------



## maomao (Jan 28, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> "Add oil" is like "Let's go!" or "Power!"


Or just 'come on' when shouted at a football team.


----------



## Cid (Jan 28, 2020)

Or ‘keep your pecker up’. Many things. You can say it to encourage sports people, or when someone is revising for exams, or when someone is is having a hard time. Very useful. We need an English version really. Korea has ‘fighting’ for some reason.


----------



## Supine (Jan 28, 2020)

Being reported as a case in Cambodia









						Coronavirus confirmed in Cambodia - Khmer Times
					






					www.khmertimeskh.com


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

Starting to see a few cases of human to human transmission outside China now - Japan and Germany seem to have confirmed such things but I dont have proper stories to link to yet.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> Starting to see a few cases of human to human transmission outside China now - Japan and Germany seem to have confirmed such things but I dont have proper stories to link to yet.



The Germany example is being summarized in The Guardian's Live Feed.


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> The Germany example is being summarized in The Guardian's Live Feed.



Thanks! It turns out the Japan one is mentioned slightly further down that live feed too.


----------



## Winot (Jan 28, 2020)

Rail travel from HK to the mainland has been suspended so that’s the end of my Guangdong trip


----------



## 8ball (Jan 28, 2020)

Certainly looks like its been spending its mutation points on transmission, after the slip with becoming virulent too early.


----------



## maomao (Jan 28, 2020)

Winot said:


> Rail travel from HK to the mainland has been suspended so that’s the end of my Guangdong trip


Could last months I guess. If my wife hadn't been made redundant end of last year she was planning a trip with the kids in April. Luck's a funny thing.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 28, 2020)

8ball said:


> Certainly looks like its been spending its mutation points on transmission, after the slip with becoming virulent too early.


All coronaviruses mutate regularly. It's one of the features of RNA based viruses (eg common cold, rabies, ebola, SARS, flu, polio, measles) as opposed to DNA ones (eg smallpox, herpes, HPV, adenoviruses which cause UTIs, conjunctivitis, diarrhoea) which makes it harder to fight them effectively (limited window of use for a vaccine, needs focussed targeting). The one blessing might be that coronaviruses tend to be at the lower end of this higher rate (it having a larger genome which does 'error-checking' as it replicates).


----------



## 8ball (Jan 28, 2020)

You missed HIV.


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

8ball said:


> Certainly looks like its been spending its mutation points on transmission, after the slip with becoming virulent too early.



Some dont think it has changed hardly at all since it first appeared in humans. This gets all mixed in with stuff I've mentioned before about the media stories of mutation-related risks having taken on something of a life of their own. Quite reasonable concepts from the past, with simple tales of 'more deadly and less spreadable' evolving into 'less deadly but more spreadable' probably do a disservice to the realities, or at least its not so straightforward in every disease outbreak and evolution.

Dunno really though, we need people to analyse a lot more samples genetic sequences to see if there are still hardly any changes happening.

Personally, in the meantime, I tend to imagine the virus already had its current characteristics at an early stae of the outbreak, ie it may have had this spread potential since the very first case (or close to it). I cant tell though, but certainly I dont take language from authorities about the virus changing and becomign more likely to infecct the young at face value. It might be that the virus has not changed recently, and its just our understanding of its thats evolving.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> Some dont think it has changed hardly at all since it first appeared in humans...



It was a video game reference, dammit!


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

A whole bunch of UK expert reaction to the suggestion that emerged in recent days that this coronavirus may spread even when there are no symptoms in the carrier:



			expert reaction to news reports that the China coronavirus may spread before symptoms show | Science Media Centre
		


I've not read every word yet but would expect that there will be a range of opinion on display, not universal harmony over this issue.


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

8ball said:


> It was a video game reference, dammit!



Well when I fail to spot such reference hopefully my serious replies will still be useful!


----------



## 2hats (Jan 28, 2020)

8ball said:


> You missed HIV.


Retroviruses use both RNA and DNA in replication.


----------



## MrCurry (Jan 28, 2020)

I’m trying to decide whether to book a trip to Amsterdam in mid Feb, but with the way this thing is developing I wonder if it might be wiser not to travel through intl airports, foreign hotels, etc if I don’t have to. 

How long till they get a working vaccine distributed out and widely available I wonder?  Not much chance of that before mid Feb.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 28, 2020)

2hats said:


> Retroviruses use both RNA and DNA in replication.



I feel duly chided. 
Interestingly, I read something about using an anti-HIV drug in combating this one.

Now you say something that rhymes with "Gaultier's".


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 28, 2020)

Winot said:


> Rail travel from HK to the mainland has been suspended so that’s the end of my Guangdong trip



I mean, I guess you can still walk across the border? They haven't specifically said it's totally closed. Personally, I wouldn't come into China right now anyway.  

Got a friend who was visiting Changsha with his Chinese wife and kid who's just managed to get some of the last seats on a train back to HK tomorrow. So glad they're going to make it. 

We're down to our last new mask now. Can't get them in the shops. Got flights to Seoul on Thursday morning and we'll need to wear them on the journey. Fortunately (!) the pollution is so bad all winter that I reckon I've got a few discarded in my office. Going to go in tomorrow morning and check.


----------



## Numbers (Jan 28, 2020)

elbows I think you should take over as team leader globally for this, with 2hats as consultant.  Shit be sorted in a week.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 28, 2020)

Winot said:


> Rail travel from HK to the mainland has been suspended so that’s the end of my Guangdong trip



They haven't stopped flights or buses to Guangdong.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 28, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I’m trying to decide whether to book a trip to Amsterdam in mid Feb, but with the way this thing is developing I wonder if it might be wiser not to travel through intl airports, foreign hotels, etc if I don’t have to.
> 
> How long till they get a working vaccine distributed out and widely available I wonder?  Not much chance of that before mid Feb.


I wouldn't worry. It'll probably come to you before you get to it; it seems that there are increasing numbers of asymptomatic cases and quite possibly will just end up circulating in the general population like flu, the common cold, etc.


----------



## Winot (Jan 28, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> They haven't stopped flights or buses to Guangdong.



I’ll keep an eye on it. My trip isn’t until 15th February. If I can get into Hong Kong but not PRC then I’ll do a side trip to Tokyo instead.


----------



## MrCurry (Jan 28, 2020)

2hats said:


> I wouldn't worry. It'll probably come to you before you get to it; it seems that there are increasing numbers of asymptomatic cases and quite possibly will just end up circulating in the general population like flu, the common cold, etc.



I’m sure you’re right. The way it’s going at the moment, I can’t see how it can be contained within one area. That ship has sailed. 

Doesn’t mean I want to do anything which might increase my chances of encountering it sooner than I might otherwise do so. I’m hoping I might be able to get vaccinated before it makes it to my door, vain though that hope might be.


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

Numbers said:


> elbows I think you should take over as team leader globally for this, with 2hats as consultant.  Shit be sorted in a week.



lol cheers but I think the only thing we could improve would be the spread of certain information. I certainly dont have anything in mind that would halt the spread, apart from waiting for several months and seeing how much the seasonal aspect affects transmission! (quite probably the seasons will make a big difference).


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Jan 28, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I’m trying to decide whether to book a trip to Amsterdam in mid Feb, but with the way this thing is developing I wonder if it might be wiser not to travel through intl airports, foreign hotels, etc if I don’t have to.


If you fly from the UK, the arrivals area at Schiphol is pretty distant from the gates used by 'proper' international travellers like the US and China. (Also worth bearing in mind there's a huge conference in Amsterdam the week of the 10th, so you might have trouble finding a reasonably priced hotel mid-week.)


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

Sounds like the German human-human transmission case is going to further stoke fears of infection during incubation/asymptomatic phase:



> the German cases had attended a work-based training event also attended by a woman who only became ill two days later during her return to China two days later. The German case is most worrying because if the Chinese woman was indeed asymptomatic at the time of the training session it would confirm reports of spread before symptoms develop making standard control strategies less effective.



(from an entry a few hours ago on the Guardian live updates page Coronavirus: Germany confirms first human transmission in Europe – live updates )


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)




----------



## Cid (Jan 28, 2020)

elbows said:


>




And, so the graph is a little less confusing:

"Time line for each case with travel history from Wuhan, with patient identifiers with
detection location, gender (M or F) and age. Distinct periods are shown as unexposed (gray),
exposed (white), infected but asymptomatic (pink), and symptomatic (purple). The analysis
yields the probability of being infected (violet), i.e. the cumulative density function of the
estimated infection moments (using the
Weibull distribution)."

You can read the paper here...


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> Some dont think it has changed hardly at all since it first appeared in humans. This gets all mixed in with stuff I've mentioned before about the media stories of mutation-related risks having taken on something of a life of their own. Quite reasonable concepts from the past, with simple tales of 'more deadly and less spreadable' evolving into 'less deadly but more spreadable' probably do a disservice to the realities, or at least its not so straightforward in every disease outbreak and evolution.
> 
> Dunno really though, we need people to analyse a lot more samples genetic sequences to see if there are still hardly any changes happening.
> 
> Personally, in the meantime, I tend to imagine the virus already had its current characteristics at an early stae of the outbreak, ie it may have had this spread potential since the very first case (or close to it). I cant tell though, but certainly I dont take language from authorities about the virus changing and becomign more likely to infecct the young at face value. It might be that the virus has not changed recently, and its just our understanding of its thats evolving.



This is certainly one of the subjects where it will be easy for me to make a mistake or become out of date.

The following document is too technical for me to absorb in full. But its been updated and their descriptive stuff that relates to my point 'we need people to analyse a lot more samples genetic sequences to see if there are still hardly any changes happening' is just now starting to show signs of shifting:



> This shows that there is limited genetic variation in the currently sampled viruses *but more recent ones are showing more divergence* as is expected for fast evolving RNA viruses. But the lack of diversity is indicative of a relatively recent common ancestor for all these viruses.











						Phylodynamic analysis of nCoV-2019 genomes – 29-Jan-2020
					

This post has been updated with new data here:  http://virological.org/t/phylodynamic-analysis-44-genomes-29-jan-2020/356/2




					virological.org


----------



## JimW (Jan 28, 2020)

Beijing now up to four recoveries against one death out of 91 confirmed cases, good to see first figure passing the second. Apparently couple of those recovered in just over a week.


----------



## Marty1 (Jan 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Did anyone else get this strange question when the authorities were saying that the disease had passed the species boundary, well there was the sort of implied question what exactly were they doing with those animals?



Read somewhere that it was people eating bat soup that caused this virus 🦇


----------



## ruffneck23 (Jan 28, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I’m trying to decide whether to book a trip to Amsterdam in mid Feb, but with the way this thing is developing I wonder if it might be wiser not to travel through intl airports, foreign hotels, etc if I don’t have to.
> 
> How long till they get a working vaccine distributed out and widely available I wonder?  Not much chance of that before mid Feb.


I work installing IT systems in Airports at the moment but if this things carries on , I'l be seriously looking for another job ( Although I'm just about to hear about a job I've gone for which may make my decision simpler )


----------



## MrCurry (Jan 28, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> If you fly from the UK, the arrivals area at Schiphol is pretty distant from the gates used by 'proper' international travellers like the US and China. (Also worth bearing in mind there's a huge conference in Amsterdam the week of the 10th, so you might have trouble finding a reasonably priced hotel mid-week.)



Thanks, but I’m working on the assumption that by mid-Feb, the people who might be carrying this disease won’t just be the ones arriving from China and other far off places. Anywhere with a lot of people is going to be potentially risky. 

That huge conference would be my reason for going there, so not much hope of cheap hotel prices. I’d probably look for an Airbnb in a cheaper suburb.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 28, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Read somewhere that it was people eating bat soup that caused this virus 🦇



Animal source is not confirmed yet.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 28, 2020)

two sheds said:


> yes indeed i don't have a car so pretty well all I buy is across the web.
> ..


We all make our own compromises, I have one car, you have two sheds


----------



## spitfire (Jan 28, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Read somewhere that it was people eating bat soup that caused this virus 🦇



You hang out in all the best places don't you?









						Don’t Blame Bat Soup for the Coronavirus
					

Racist memes target Chinese eating habits, but the real causes of the virus are more mundane.




					foreignpolicy.com
				




"As news of the Wuhan virus spread online, one video became emblematic of its claimed origin: It showed a young Chinese woman, supposedly in Wuhan, biting into a virtually whole bat as she held the creature up with chopsticks. Media outlets from the _Daily Mail_ to RT promoted the video, as did a number of prominent extremist bloggers such as Paul Joseph Watson. Thousands of Twitter users blamed supposedly “dirty” Chinese eating habits—in particular the consumption of wildlife—for the outbreak, said to have begun at a so-called wet market that sold animals in Wuhan, China."


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Jan 28, 2020)

An example of shit going round (not within China, this one):



But when people have no trust in official sources it's a bit inevitable.


----------



## Marty1 (Jan 28, 2020)

spitfire said:


> You hang out in all the best places don't you?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Sure I saw it on the BBC, maybe I misread the headline.


----------



## spitfire (Jan 28, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Sure I saw it on the BBC, maybe I misread the headline.



BBC has a story debunking it so you may wish to read more closely if it was the beeb.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-tr...s-outbreak&link_location=live-reporting-story


----------



## Marty1 (Jan 28, 2020)

spitfire said:


> BBC has a story debunking it so you may wish to read more closely if it was the beeb.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-tr...s-outbreak&link_location=live-reporting-story



Looks like the tinfoilers are all over this story.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 28, 2020)

This may already be out of date, but there is some similarity between this virus and a bat virus.  There is also some suspicion that if it originated in bats, it got to humans by more than one inter-species jump.


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

Current state of accepted wisdom regarding bats etc to the best of my knowledge (which is limited):

Bats are currently considered to be the primary known animal host for coronaviruses.

However, as mentioned in that BBC article, they are not considered the best candidates for the spread to humans. It is assumed that such events, when they happen via markets, are caused by a different sort of animal that is more likely to be found in such markets.

In the past, with SARS it was civit cats that were in the frame for being the intermediate host, and with MERS it is dromedary camels. I believe that before the bat natural hosts thing was discovered, civit cats were thought to possibly be the natural host, rather than just an intermediary, but I havent double-checked this.

Its also important to note that the actual eating of the animals is not necessary part of the jump from the intermediate animal to humans - ie rather than a soup made from the animal concerned, its often though that animal faeces contaminating the market environment with the virus is a more likely vector. Epecially since the intestines are where these sorts of viruses tend to do their thing in animals, the respiratory side is often more a feature of human manifestations of the infections.

Returning to the bats and the routine state of things in terms of the coronavirus hanging out inside them, I believe I read a study of relevance recently. Serological testing of villagers near bat caves suggested some signs of past coronavirus infection of local people, in fairly low numbers. These things mostly go unnoticed unless we go looking for them specifically, because they havent caused a big deal or turned into any sort of wider outbreak.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 28, 2020)

Flu poo.


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

The poo stuff does apply to humans too, just in varying degrees. eg if I remember properly, there were some cases with diarrhoea within the first group of infected people that came to medical attention, but not that many, and less than was seen with SARS. But there have been so many cases since then that we dont have any clinical info about, that I should not really be clinging to the initial set of descriptions, but have nothing broader to replace them with yet.


----------



## Winot (Jan 28, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I mean, I guess you can still walk across the border? They haven't specifically said it's totally closed. Personally, I wouldn't come into China right now anyway.



 The UK Government agrees with you


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

And the reverse.


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

Interlude.


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

> BERLIN (Reuters) - Three more people in southern Germany have contracted the coronavirus and they are employees at the same company where a man became the first person in Germany to become infected with the virus, the Bavarian health ministry said on Tuesday.
> 
> The 33-year-old man apparently contracted the virus on Jan. 21 during a training session with a Chinese colleague, the ministry said. The three additional patients were being monitored in isolation at a clinic in Munich.
> 
> “A total of around 40 employees at the company have been identified as potential close contacts (with their Chinese colleague). As a precaution, the people concerned are to be tested on Wednesday,” Bavaria’s Health Minister Melanie Huml said in a statement.











						Three more people in Germany infected with coronavirus: state ministry
					

Three more people in southern Germany have contracted the coronavirus and they are employees at the same company where a man became the first person in Germany to become infected with the virus, the Bavarian health ministry said on Tuesday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)

The Deceptively Simple Number Sparking Coronavirus Fears
					

Here’s what the oft-cited R0 number tells us about the new outbreak—and what it doesn’t.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Jan 29, 2020)

It's unlikely I'm going to keep posting the same quantity of links, tweets etc as I have in the last few days. I'm certainly not going to obsessively post the latest numbers from China every night. Anyway a fair chunk of my internet sources are shown by what I've already posted, if anyone was having trouble finding such things, there is no need for me to parrot all this stuff as this event continues. 

I'll probably try to focus more on whatever happens (or is learnt) next that I think is actually significant rather than stuff that is 'more of the same'.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 29, 2020)

I have a question about masks. I have the 3M kind with the one way respirator, but I've been using it for a week, at times for very extended periods. I can't replace it. Will its efficiency be reducing?


----------



## Graymalkin (Jan 29, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I have a question about masks. I have the 3M kind with the one way respirator, but I've been using it for a week, at times for very extended periods. I can't replace it. Will its efficiency be reducing?


Is it meant as a dust mask? If so you can wear it for as long as its comfortable to breath.  Eventually the filter will get clogged with dust and particulates.  But until then, as long as the seals are intact it should be fine.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 29, 2020)

Graymalkin said:


> Is it meant as a dust mask? If so you can wear it for as long as its comfortable to breath.  Eventually the filter will get clogged with dust and particulates.  But until then, as long as the seals are intact it should be fine.



It's a PM 2.5 filtering mask. For pollution.  It's not comfortable at all, but I'm happy to wear it.


----------



## maomao (Jan 29, 2020)

My father in law believes strongly that the virus was planted in Wuhan by the Americans but that everything will be okay in a week or two because the government have said it will be. It seems to some extent that the government have turned the New Year break into an advantage because a lot of people have at least a couple of weeks break at this time of year anyway, schools and universities are usually off for a month, so getting everyone to stay at home isn't as hard as it might be at other times of year.


----------



## krtek a houby (Jan 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> It's unlikely I'm going to keep posting the same quantity of links, tweets etc as I have in the last few days. I'm certainly not going to obsessively post the latest numbers from China every night. Anyway a fair chunk of my internet sources are shown by what I've already posted, if anyone was having trouble finding such things, there is no need for me to parrot all this stuff as this event continues.
> 
> I'll probably try to focus more on whatever happens (or is learnt) next that I think is actually significant rather than stuff that is 'more of the same'.



Appreciate all the effort, fwiw


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (Jan 29, 2020)

BA is cancelling all flights to mainland China with immediate effect. A few hours ago the Beijing and Shanghai to London flights took off, both carrying the crews which flew the aircraft in yesterday. Hong Kong flights are still operating as normal.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 29, 2020)

maomao said:


> My father in law believes strongly that the virus was planted in Wuhan by the Americans but that everything will be okay in a week or two because the government have said it will be. It seems to some extent that the government have turned the New Year break into an advantage because a lot of people have at least a couple of weeks break at this time of year anyway, schools and universities are usually off for a month, so getting everyone to stay at home isn't as hard as it might be at other times of year.



Apparently some online rumors claim that the virus was created by the Americans - but  people in northern China should mostly be safe because most of the overseas Chinese people the US government used to develop the virus are from southern China.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 29, 2020)

Australian laboratory claims to have been able to grow the virus. 








						Australian scientists first to grow coronavirus in a lab outside China
					

Scientists in Australia have replicated the deadly new coronavirus in a laboratory — in what they say is a “significant breakthrough” that may help diagnose and treat the disease. The l…




					nypost.com
				




This, they claim to be a breakthrough as it means identification will be easier and quicker.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 29, 2020)

Germany confirms three more cases of coronavirus – DW – 01/28/2020
					

The disease, which has killed more than 100 people in China, has now infected four people in Bavaria. All four instances are thought to be connected to the recent visit of a Chinese worker to the area.




					www.google.com
				




4 cases in Germany. 3 linked to worker who travelled from China and had visited their parents from Wuhan.


----------



## ruffneck23 (Jan 29, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> BA is cancelling all flights to mainland China with immediate effect. A few hours ago the Beijing and Shanghai to London flights took off, both carrying the crews which flew the aircraft in yesterday. Hong Kong flights are still operating as normal.


which makes us at work think it's more serious than the media are letting on...


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 29, 2020)

Just got a screenshot of instructions from a large Chinese U.K. based outfit from  someone - recent visitors to China have to stay away from work for 14 days, if a family member has travelled, then 7 days


----------



## Teaboy (Jan 29, 2020)

ruffneck23 said:


> which makes us at work think it's more serious than the media are letting on...



More likely just that the foreign office has advised against all but essential travel.  This being all our travel insurance is suddenly invalid for trips to mainland China.  Quite simply there isn't anybody to fly out there, or the number to justify to cost of the flights.  Its exactly what I would expect a British airline to do under the circumstances.

ETA: Also the duty of care thing to their employees.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 29, 2020)

ruffneck23 said:


> which makes us at work think it's more serious than the media are letting on...





ruffneck23 said:


> which makes us at work think it's more serious than the media are letting on...


Mostly just risk management at this stage - having hardware and crews possibly locked down overseas is a massive cost to BA


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 29, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> More likely just that the foreign office has advised against all but essential travel.  This being all our travel insurance is suddenly invalid for trips to mainland China.  Quite simply there isn't anybody to fly out there, or the number to justify to cost of the flights.  Its exactly what I would expect a British airline to do under the circumstances.



It's cutting options for those of us still here though.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 29, 2020)

The Knock on from this will impact the whole regions transport   if the SARS experience is anything to go by. Returns to Singapore were down to 250 quid at one point


----------



## 2hats (Jan 29, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I have a question about masks. I have the 3M kind with the one way respirator, but I've been using it for a week, at times for very extended periods. I can't replace it. Will its efficiency be reducing?





Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> It's a PM 2.5 filtering mask. For pollution.  It's not comfortable at all, but I'm happy to wear it.


All masks will reduce in efficiency over time with usage.

A mask only rated for PM2.5 isn't going to effectively filter out this virus. PM2.5 particles, where it is most efficient, are (surprise) 2500 nanometres in size. This coronavirus is going to have dimensions of something like 100-150 nanometres. The mask you describe will probably filter some of the virions but with much reduced efficacy (varying with mask manufacturer). Much better if it is rated N99 or FFP3; then it will provide some degree of protection if fitted properly (tight seal around the mouth and nose with no leakage) - the vast majority of people will have masks that either don't fit properly, or they do not know how to fit them properly, or they readjust them for comfort whilst wearing them, leading to poor fitting.

Any mask (even a clogged one) will however reduce (see previous other discussion) your ability to touch your mouth and nose, so reducing the likelihood of virion ingress through those entry points (which just leaves your eyes, which clearly nothing other than a full face respirator helps protect).

In summary: wash hands regularly, thoroughly, don't touch them to the soft wet entry points (wear a mask if this helps achieve that), know where your food came from/who prepared it, and try to avoid other people.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 29, 2020)

Thanks 2hats there are no masks for sale anywhere so we'll have to work with what we've got.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 29, 2020)

Coronavirus: Australia plans island quarantine as foreigners leave Wuhan
					

Hundreds of foreigners fly out of Wuhan, as Australia announces a Christmas Island quarantine plan.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> Hundreds of foreign nationals have been evacuated from the Chinese city of Wuhan, the centre of the coronavirus outbreak, as more deaths and cases were confirmed.
> 
> Australia plans to quarantine its 600 returning citizens for two weeks on Christmas Island - some 2,000km (1,200 miles) from the mainland.



I bet the residents are well chuffed with that.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 29, 2020)

It’s already a detention camp


----------



## andysays (Jan 29, 2020)

Just heard an interview with a Brit in Wuhan who's been told he'll be flown out, but will have to make his own way home from Gatwick and then stay indoors for two weeks of self quarantine .

Really have to question the sense of this, if true...


----------



## 2hats (Jan 29, 2020)

Some people seem to have misunderstood the concept of quarantine.

Anyway, some handy advice:

From: Here’s how coronavirus spreads on a plane - and the safest place to sit


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 29, 2020)

I think a lot of foreign residents in China - probably including some who suspect they have been exposed to the virus - are going to take the Australian move as a signal that they should get back to their homelands while they can still do so without being locked up when they get there.


----------



## andysays (Jan 29, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I think a lot of foreign residents in China - probably including some who suspect they have been exposed to the virus - are going to take the Australian move as a signal that they should get back to their homelands while they can still do so without being locked up when they get there.


I think they *should* be locked up when they get here, or at least put into properly medically supervised quarantine. 

If the situation is serious enough to evacuate them, it's serious enough for them to be quarantine.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 29, 2020)

2hats said:


> Anyway, some handy advice:



So a slight trade-off between best place to sit to dodge the virus vs. best place to sit to survive a crash...


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 29, 2020)

8ball said:


> So a slight trade-off between best place to sit to dodge the virus vs. best place to sit to survive a crash...



Yep, but a crash could end up spreading the infected person's bodily fluids considerably further than one row.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 29, 2020)

Given the hit / miss healthcare structures in China, I would be looking to jump ship and get anywhere else to be looked after tbh


----------



## Santino (Jan 29, 2020)

2hats said:


> Some people seem to have misunderstood the concept of quarantine.
> 
> Anyway, some handy advice:
> View attachment 196980
> From: Here’s how coronavirus spreads on a plane - and the safest place to sit


What's up with 9C?


----------



## andysays (Jan 29, 2020)

BBC now reporting that those evacuate *will *be quarantined "possibly at a UK military facility"...


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 29, 2020)

I hear catterick is delightful in February


----------



## 2hats (Jan 29, 2020)

Santino said:


> What's up with 9C?


Got up too often for the loo? Had a bit of a run in with 14C at the gate? Or simply a bit of scatter in the model.


andysays said:


> BBC now reporting that those evacuate *will *be quarantined "possibly at a UK military facility"...


Diego Garcia? Gruinard Island?


----------



## Cid (Jan 29, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> Given the hit / miss healthcare structures in China, I would be looking to jump ship and get anywhere else to be looked after tbh



What I saw of healthcare in China was actually pretty good... I mean granted I lived in Nanjing, relatively wealthy and westernised, but that's the kind of place most westerners who are considering leaving will be. I'm sure it can be crap in more rural areas/smaller cities, but the hospital we ended up in when my mate fucked his knee was pretty impressive really. And no, not an expensive foreigner-oriented one.


----------



## Supine (Jan 29, 2020)

When I almost died from pneumonia / altitude sickness the Chinese hospital I got taken to sorted me right out


----------



## maomao (Jan 29, 2020)

Cid said:


> What I saw of healthcare in China was actually pretty good... I mean granted I lived in Nanjing, relatively wealthy and westernised, but that's the kind of place most westerners who are considering leaving will be. I'm sure it can be crap in more rural areas/smaller cities, but the hospital we ended up in when my mate fucked his knee was pretty impressive really. And no, not an expensive foreigner-oriented one.


Only problem I ever had with Chinese hospitals is the total lack of privacy especially when they clock there's a big lump of foreigner there. I had complete strangers who weren't doctors helping to set my arms when I broke them and I had a wisdom tooth out in front of a small audience. But the quality of care and general cleanliness was as good as the UK. 

Did get sent to a posh hospital once by my workplace as annual STI checks for all staff were mandatory and for some reason they decided that they didn't want me standing in the queue with my willy out (really) with the Chinese staff as I had in previous years. It was very posh and entirely deserted. Felt like something out of a science fiction film.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 29, 2020)

Friend of mine in Guangdong reporting that the price of pork had quadrupled there over the last few days. I guess comes from panic buying and maybe disrupted supply lines. 

This economic aspect could prove worse than the virus. A lot of people's livelihoods are already suffering - my friend told me there is a big flower market in her city that people usually go to at Spring Festival, and of course it was cancelled and all the flowers have since withered, and it's a big blow to the farmers who were relying on that expected income and had used their land to grow flowers specifically for that purpose. I imagine there are similar stories happening all over, and as always it is the poorest who suffer most.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 29, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> Friend of mine in Guangdong reporting that the price of *pork* had quadrupled there over the last few days.


Excellent source of zoonotic infections.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 29, 2020)

Pork is stressed because of tge earlier  swine virus leading to millions of slaughtered hogs - pork prices are he bellwether for many people.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 29, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> Given the hit / miss healthcare structures in China, I would be looking to jump ship and get anywhere else to be looked after tbh



_Anywhere_ else?


----------



## Teaboy (Jan 29, 2020)

I've just come back from a work meeting at Heathrow T2.  Wandered through check-in at the time to see a lot of presumably Chinese nationals checking in for their flight to Beijing. They seemed pretty chilled and they were smiling and joking*.  Interesting juxtaposition when I got back to my car and listened to the radio and UK expats getting all upset because they are their whole family (regardless of nationality) wasn't being flown to the UK (gratis) immediately.

* Probably got suitcases full of face masks to flog for big money when they get back.


----------



## two sheds (Jan 29, 2020)

2hats said:


> All masks will reduce in efficiency over time with usage.
> 
> A mask only rated for PM2.5 isn't going to effectively filter out this virus. PM2.5 particles, where it is most efficient, are (surprise) 2500 nanometres in size. This coronavirus is going to have dimensions of something like 100-150 nanometres. The mask you describe will probably filter some of the virions but with much reduced efficacy (varying with mask manufacturer). Much better if it is rated N99 or FFP3; then it will provide some degree of protection if fitted properly (tight seal around the mouth and nose with no leakage) - the vast majority of people will have masks that either don't fit properly, or they do not know how to fit them properly, or they readjust them for comfort whilst wearing them, leading to poor fitting.
> 
> ...



Presumably 250 nm masks will block water droplets which would be a carrier?


----------



## 8ball (Jan 29, 2020)

2hats said:


> Any mask (even a clogged one) will however reduce (see previous other discussion) your ability to touch your mouth and nose, so reducing the likelihood of virion ingress through those entry points (which just leaves your eyes, which clearly nothing other than a full face respirator helps protect).



I think a motorcycle helmet might help a little.


----------



## editor (Jan 29, 2020)

This fucking idiot should be jailed 



> The Chinese embassy in Paris has tracked down a woman from Wuhan who said she took tablets to pass airport health checks.
> 
> The woman boasted on social media that she had been suffering from a fever, but managed to reduce her symptoms with medicine.
> 
> She later posted pictures showing herself dining at what she claimed was a Michelin-starred restaurant in Lyon.











						Coronavirus: Chinese embassy in Paris finds woman who 'cheated' checks
					

The woman boasted about taking medicine to bring her temperature down in order to clear customs.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## 8ball (Jan 29, 2020)

Not good.


----------



## planetgeli (Jan 29, 2020)

My girlfriend's university has a exchange programme with...university in Wuhan. 

Those students aren't returning to their families anytime soon.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 29, 2020)

It appears pharmacies here in Ireland are running out of masks. 
And there isnt even one case here.


----------



## elbows (Jan 29, 2020)

editor said:


> This fucking idiot should be jailed



No, I wouldnt say that, especially as some details of this story were not clear when it was reported, such as various travel and entry dates being missing. But it does say she left Wuhan last year, so I'm not going to judge her actions by the standards we would have started to demand in the last week or so.

edited to add - she was still reckless and an idiot, and my opinion of that could strengthen if I knew certain dates, but at least she was so stupid as to speak on social media of what she did, so this instance was picked up on.


----------



## editor (Jan 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> No, I wouldnt say that, especially as some details of this story were not clear when it was reported, such as various travel and entry dates being missing. But it does say she left Wuhan last year, so I'm not going to judge her actions by the standards we would have started to demand in the last week or so.
> 
> edited to add - she was still reckless and an idiot, and my opinion of that could strengthen if I knew certain dates, but at least she was so stupid as to speak on social media of what she did, so this instance was picked up on.


She clearly was fully aware of the virus, tweeting, "'Just before I left, I had a low fever and cough. I was scared to death and rushed to eat [fever-reducing] medicine.'
'I kept on checking my temperature. Luckily I managed to get it down and my exit was smooth.'


----------



## maomao (Jan 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> But it does say she left Wuhan last year,


No it doesn't. It says the corona virus was discovered late last year. It says she left while thermal scanning was in place. And some confusion over 'year' caused by cny I think. Assuming 'last year' means year of the pig rather than 2019.


----------



## elbows (Jan 29, 2020)

Ah yes, sorry for my reading comprehension error.

Anyway, personally I dont believe in jail for that sort of thing, fear leads to all sorts of inappropriate decisions, including by those who are making the rules, not just those breaking them. I empathise with anyone caught up in this, including those who do something stupid to evade certain checks.


----------



## Callie (Jan 29, 2020)

andysays said:


> I think they *should* be locked up when they get here, or at least put into properly medically supervised quarantine.
> 
> If the situation is serious enough to evacuate them, it's serious enough for them to be quarantine.


What do we reckon then? Shove them all on the Isle of Wight??


----------



## Callie (Jan 29, 2020)

2hats said:


> Excellent source of zoonotic infections.


Mmmm hepatitis E


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 29, 2020)

Callie said:


> What do we reckon then? Shove them all on the Isle of Wight??



The suggestion is that they will probably use some military base, but it hasn't been confirmed yet.



> Hundreds of British citizens being flown back to the UK from Wuhan on Thursday will be put in quarantine for two weeks on their arrival.
> 
> It is believed passengers will be required to sign a contract agreeing to commit to the quarantine period.
> 
> ...











						Coronavirus: Britons on Wuhan flights to be quarantined
					

Those returning from the centre of the coronavirus outbreak could be taken to a UK military facility.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## BristolEcho (Jan 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> Ah yes, sorry for my reading comprehension error.
> 
> Anyway, personally I dont believe in jail for that sort of thing, fear leads to all sorts of inappropriate decisions, including by those who are making the rules, not just those breaking them. I empathise with anyone caught up in this, including those who do something stupid to evade certain checks.



Whilst I agree with the essence of what you say I am not sure I agree that she seemed scared or in fear. She didn't really care if she had it or not, or if she gave it to anyone else and that is reflected in her behaviour on social media.


----------



## maomao (Jan 29, 2020)

Gutted for the bloke who's being separated from his permanent resident wife so he can get his kid out. There should be no difference between permanent residence and citizenship. China doesn't allow dual nationality and it's not easy to abandon a fundamental part of your identity when it's not necessary 99% of the time.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 29, 2020)

Callie said:


> Mmmm hepatitis E



Gotta catch ‘em all.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 29, 2020)

Interesting read here about how the new 'hospitals' are being built in record time, to deal with the crisis.



> Broadcast by Chinese state media, drone footage of the construction site shows a ballet of bulldozers digging the foundation and a parade of trucks hauling in steel cable, cement, pre-fab parts and power generators. Workers are toiling around the clock to meet the frantic timeline: Huoshenshan Hospital, which broke ground on Jan. 24, is scheduled to be operational on Feb. 3, will have 1,000 beds and occupy a 269,000 sq. ft. lot in the edge of the city. With an equally ambitious timeline is Leishenshan Hospital, a 323,000-sq. ft, 1,300-bed facility slated to open two days later.













						How China can build a hospital for coronavirus patients in a week
					

Two hospitals will open in Wuhan next week and millions are watching daily videos of the architectural feat.




					qz.com


----------



## nyxx (Jan 29, 2020)

One of my friends lives in Shanghai, I can’t work out if she should be trying to leave or not. She has little ones in school, & has a job there... at the end of the day it’s not me who needs to work this out of course, I’m just wondering...


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (Jan 29, 2020)

maomao said:


> Did get sent to a posh hospital once by my workplace as annual STI checks for all staff were mandatory



I hesitate to ask, but wtf is that all about?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 29, 2020)

TheHoodedClaw said:


> I hesitate to ask, but wtf is that all about?



Standard thing for brothel workers.


----------



## maomao (Jan 29, 2020)

TheHoodedClaw said:


> I hesitate to ask, but wtf is that all about?


I worked in a state school for three to six year olds twenty years ago. Staff had to be tested for STIs by genital swab annually. Almost all the teachers were women and I believe were seen in private rooms at least. Most of the male staff, cooks, cleaners, gardeners etc. were migrant workers and it was considered good enough for them to line up with their knobs out while a doctor took urethra samples with q tips. I took part in this once but someone at either the school or the clinic had decided this wasn't suitable for foreigners and sent me to a posh clinic instead. I've always suspected that samples weren't properly examined and it was more of a fear exercise than anything else. 

I know that's a bit of a diversion but I think it's a bit of an insight into the public health system in China. 

My in-laws seem to be having a grand time. There's lots to gossip about and they've been reassured that all medical treatment (and funerals!) connected to the virus wil be covered by the state.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 29, 2020)

I wonder at what time in the transmission of the virus tests will pick it up? 

As I understand it these temperature scans just pick up if you have a fever, but can blood tests pick up that you are carrying the virus in the initial 5-14 day incubation period?


----------



## elbows (Jan 29, 2020)

weltweit said:


> As I understand it these temperature scans just pick up if you have a fever, but can blood tests pick up that you are carrying the virus in the initial 5-14 day incubation period?



I cannot properly answer that question at the moment due to some large holes in my knowledge about tests. A strong maybe in place of a real answer for now, but also taking into account that there is a limit to test capacity.

Sometimes I find it useful to read some advice/information which was prepared for another coronavirus, to get some background picture about things, and tests are no exception. So here is one for MERS. I believe the same type of test (rRT-PCR) is being used for the new coronavirus (but this test tailored to check for this new coronavirus in particular)  but I will check this. And when it comes to the section on serology tests, thats the stuff I was going on about in recent days about how you eventually discover/realistically estimate the overall infection level in the public (because mild/invisible cases wont be missed in the same way they are during a scary outbreak).






						Laboratory Testing for MERS-CoV
					

MERS-CoV lab tests include molecular and serology tests.




					www.cdc.gov
				




And I have an additional motive for posting that particular page. The subject of whether this new coronavirus can be spread by people who have no symptoms. Which to my eyes has been treated with not just dismay but also with surprise by some, including some experts. Well, what do we have here on the MERS page, in the Serology Tests section.....



> Evidence to date suggests there may be a broader range of MERS disease than was initially thought. For example, public health investigators have identified individuals who are PCR-positive but have no MERS symptoms; we do not know if MERS-CoV can be spread by these people. For this reason, public health scientists are working to learn more about how the virus is transmitted. One way to do this is through voluntary testing of blood samples from people who had close contact with people known to have MERS.



I wasnt really surprised to see this, its not the first time I've ended up with a dodgy sort of deja vu when reviewing historical literature in the context of a current outbreak. And not the first time I wish that we had actually ended up answering more of those questions via a previous outbreak, rather than now be facing them afresh without the advantage of that knowledge!


----------



## elbows (Jan 29, 2020)

Following on from that first report some days ago into the clinical characteristics of the first cases, it looks like there is a subsequent report that includes more cases, 99 cases apparently. I havent had time to read it yet. Probably the cases covered in the earlier report are part of the 99, but like I said, I havent read it yet.



			https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620302117.pdf


----------



## elbows (Jan 29, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Jan 29, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Interesting read here about how the new 'hospitals' are being built in record time, to deal with the crisis.



One of the roles of this hospital construction mission, and the continual broadcast of it, is psychological support.

It is painful to feel helpless, to not see the picture clearly, to not see progress, to not be able to see all of the heroics and human endeavours unfold before our very eyes. With a project like this, there is a visible proxy for these struggles, in a neat and controlled package with very low uncertainty and much lower risk of failure than, for example, the containment mission.

And so live and timelapsed footage of the construction, and various other news reports about it, can help on the mental health front. And I do not dismiss this as a gimmick, such things, whether spontaneous or forced, are an important aspect of struggle and of coping.


----------



## elbows (Jan 29, 2020)

I should have mentioned the other political considerations that lurk in such areas. Such as deflecting from failures. But I dont tend to go on about that sort of thing too much at this stage of an outbreak because my attention is mostly drawn to the disease itself, and people in general coping.


----------



## elbows (Jan 29, 2020)

Oh dear:









						Coronavirus: Flight taking Britons out of Wuhan is delayed
					

Downing Street says it is working with China to get UK citizens out of the coronavirus-hit city.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 30, 2020)

Hong Kong is getting desperate for masks - I've seen lots of photos of people gathered outside stores waiting for masks, which seems unwise - I'd have thought whatever limited protection the masks provide would be outweighed by the risks of spending a long time in a crowd of people. People have also been seen gathering used masks, washing them, and reselling, so people have been warned to rip their masks in half before discarding them.


----------



## Cid (Jan 30, 2020)

Yeah, I think this is one of the major problems of masks... They make people feel immune. And if they also make people gather in groups like that, using their phones, probably scratching under the mask, any benefit is gone.


----------



## Part-timah (Jan 30, 2020)

India has it’s first case: Kerala reports first confirmed coronavirus case in India


----------



## SpookyFrank (Jan 30, 2020)

nyxx said:


> One of my friends lives in Shanghai, I can’t work out if she should be trying to leave or not. She has little ones in school, & has a job there... at the end of the day it’s not me who needs to work this out of course, I’m just wondering...



Realistically this thing is going to break out and go global sooner or later. If it's a question of uprooting an entire family with a settled existence, for what could be an only marginally improved chance of avoiding the even more marginal chance of getting this thing and becoming seriously ill, I'd say stay put tbh. I'd be more concerned about social conditions on the ground than the virus itself, and I have no idea what that might be like in Shanghai or how it might change.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

This depressed me yesterday, although I am glad about the attempts to respond to this shameful racism.









						Coronavirus: French Asians hit back at racism with 'I'm not a virus'
					

The coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan prompts French Asians to complain of a backlash against them.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 30, 2020)

In terms of pure risk management, mixing with other Escapees as part of the wuhan airlift would seem to be riskier ?


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 30, 2020)

I think I'd be inclined to take my chances on a flight out - if this outbreak gets much worse, food shortages, social unrest, etc. could be next, which is not a situation I'd want to try to navigate as a foreigner living in a dictatorship.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)




----------



## Teaboy (Jan 30, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I think I'd be inclined to take my chances on a flight out - if this outbreak gets much worse, food shortages, social unrest, etc. could be next, which is not a situation I'd want to try to navigate as a foreigner living in a dictatorship.



I think this is a fair point and more of a concern than the virus itself.  Unless you're in one of the high risk groups it really doesn't seem that big a deal.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

I havent verified this info yet but am posting it anyway, to be filed under 'Doh!'


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 30, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I think this is a fair point and more of a concern than the virus itself.  Unless you're in one of the high risk groups it really doesn't seem that big a deal.



Unfortunately, it's time to get out, I'd say. Getting out at all could get much harder.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 30, 2020)




----------



## ruffneck23 (Jan 30, 2020)

so we have had the official email, all international travel to China has been cancelled indefinitely, if you have been there in the last 30 days, you are require to work from home for the next 21 days , we have to set up a screening area for visitors to the LHR offices ( I'm not going to be back there for a while so wont affect me ) , its all becoming a bit real..


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)




----------



## Teaboy (Jan 30, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Unfortunately, it's time to get out, I'd say. Getting out at all could get much harder.



The Chinese airlines are still operating to the UK and there must be connecting options available.  I'm guessing the cost might be high.   Is it more to do with getting to the cities in China where these flights depart from?


----------



## Cid (Jan 30, 2020)

Personally still think China is very, very unlikely to have widespread social problems. Everything I’ve seen indicates that faith in the government may have been disrupted a bit, but is holding strong for most. From maomao’s talk on in-laws to chats with friends there. More broadly than that there’s plenty of (mild) nationalism from teachers/assistants etc I used to know.

On the other hand, if it goes much beyond the normal holiday and lack of wages starts to bite... or food shortages. No amount of faith in government will get round that. Though it’s probably more likely that people will just start going back to normal life, even with the virus still around. It is a risk though, and there’s always the possibility of bad feeling toward foreigners.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 30, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I think I'd be inclined to take my chances on a flight out - if this outbreak gets much worse, food shortages, social unrest, etc. could be next, which is not a situation I'd want to try to navigate as a foreigner living in a dictatorship.



Agreed. 

A lot of people aren't going to get paid at the end of this month. Things could get quite dangerous.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 30, 2020)

A real-time map is now tracking the spread of the outbreak globally with the full list of confirmed cases and deaths.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 30, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> A real-time map is now tracking the spread of the outbreak globally with the full list of confirmed cases and deaths.



The Flat Earthers have finally been vindicated.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

A quite disgusting, shameful and risky lack of the basic data that would be required to properly consider medical supply chain risk is described in this article:









						The Coronavirus Is a Threat to the Global Drug Supply
					

The world's pharmaceutical supply chain is in danger as the virus spreads across China and jeopardizes travel and trade.




					www.wired.com


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 30, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> The Chinese airlines are still operating to the UK and there must be connecting options available.  I'm guessing the cost might be high.   Is it more to do with getting to the cities in China where these flights depart from?



It's just hard to say how long other airlines will be offering flights. Russia just closed their borders to China. I'd say things are very unpredictable right now, and if you had the ability to take a trip for a few weeks, this would be a good time. Especially since all schools are closed right now anyway.


----------



## maomao (Jan 30, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> The Chinese airlines are still operating to the UK and there must be connecting options available.  I'm guessing the cost might be high.   Is it more to do with getting to the cities in China where these flights depart from?



I've been told getting to and from airports without your own car is pretty much impossible. Taxi drivers have been told to turn down airport work and bus and train services have been cancelled indefinitely.


----------



## Combustible (Jan 30, 2020)

maomao said:


> I've been told getting to and from airports without your own car is pretty much impossible. Taxi drivers have been told to turn down airport work and bus and train services have been cancelled indefinitely.


 
Many Intercity  buses have been cancelled yes, but I haven't heard of train services being cancelled outside Hubei. Yesterday I got a train to Shanghai and then a taxi to the airport before flying out (entirely planned for work). Only difference was what seemed to be cursory temperature scans at the train station and airport.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

The nextstrain analysis has been updated with more samples.

Here I have just cherrypicked one thing in particular, because it belongs in the discussion about mutations and the misleading media narrative about them that often pop up at times like this.



> We currently see little genetic diversity across the nCoV sequences, with 11 out of 42 sequences having no unique mutations.
> 
> Low genetic diversity across these sequences suggests that the most recent common ancestor of all nCoV sequences was fairly recent, since mutations accumulate slowly compared to other RNA viruses at a rate of around 1-2 mutations per month for coronaviruses. Generally, repeated introductions from an animal reservoir will show significant diversity (this has been true for Lassa, Ebola, MERS-CoV and avian flu). The observation of such strong clustering of human infections can be explained by an outbreak that descends from a single zoonotic introduction event into the human population followed by human-to-human epidemic spread.





> We are starting to see groups of sequences that share mutations. One cluster contains sequences from Guangdong and four isolates from the US. Other clusters contain two to four isolates. Sequences in these clusters tend to be from more recent samples, suggesting that the virus has started to accumulate mutations as it spread in Wuhan and subsequently to other cities. There is currently no evidence that these mutations change how the virus behaves -- it is expected that RNA viruses mutate.








						auspice
					






					nextstrain.org


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Sounds like the UK flight now has approval.









						Coronavirus: Britons in Wuhan to fly home on Friday
					

A flight carrying 150 UK and 50 EU nationals out of the coronavirus-hit city is due back on Friday.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Cid (Jan 30, 2020)

There’s a video doing the rounds of how things look in Nanjing, it’s wechat specific though. And probably too sentimental/patriotic for urban... sweeping drone shots and the like. Has people working (快递, supermarkets, drivers) and shopping though.... and metro. I guess that will be reflected on a wider basis. People will just go back to work because they have to. How that works in terms of wider logistics, especially international I suppose remains to be seen. And also in terms of schools, universities etc.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 30, 2020)

There is going to be an economic cost. Chinese companies are struggling to get their employees back to work. 

This has implications for companies worldwide which source their products from China.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

I'm depressed.


----------



## Cid (Jan 30, 2020)

Were there travel restrictions around SARS? Have completely forgotten how it panned out.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Cid said:


> Were there travel restrictions around SARS? Have completely forgotten how it panned out.



I've plucked some relevant entries from the wikipedia SARS timeline, dates are all 2003. Most of this stuff relates to warnings rather than outright bans:









						2002–2004 SARS outbreak - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






> On March 15, WHO issued a heightened global health alert about mysterious pneumonia with a case definition of SARS after cases in Singapore and Canada were also identified. The alert included a rare emergency travel advisory to international travellers, healthcare professionals, and health authorities.
> 
> The CDC issued a travel advisory stating that persons considering travel to the affected areas in Asia (Hong Kong, Singapore, Vietnam, and China) should not go.





> On April 1, the U.S. government called back non-essential personnel in their consulate office in Hong Kong and Guangzhou. The US government also advised US citizens not to travel to the region.
> 
> On April 11, the World Health Organization issued a global health alert for SARS as it became clear the disease was being spread by global air travel.





> On April 28, WHO declared the outbreak in Vietnam to be over as no new cases were reported for 20 days.
> 
> On April 29, leaders of member countries of ASEAN and the PRC premier held an emergency summit in Bangkok, Thailand in order to address the SARS problem. Among the decisions made were the setting-up of a ministerial-level task force and uniform pre-departure health screening in airports.
> 
> On April 30, the World Health Organization lifted the SARS travel warning for Toronto. The decision was made because "it is satisfied with local measures to stop the spread of SARS". Canadian officials said they would step up screenings at airports.[28]





> On May 3, the 2003 FIFA Women's World Cup was abruptly moved to the United States due to the outbreak. China maintained its automatic qualification and later hosted the Women's World Cup 4 years later.





> On May 19, the WHO Annual Meeting was held in Geneva. Hong Kong pushed for the Tourism Warning to be lifted.
> 
> On May 20, the WHO refused to lift the Tourism Warning for Hong Kong and Guangdong.
> 
> On May 23, after a recount of the number of SARS patients, the WHO lifted the Tourism Warning from Hong Kong and Guangdong.





> On May 31, Singapore was removed from WHO's list of 'Infected Areas'.
> 
> On June 23, Hong Kong was removed from WHO's list of 'Affected Areas', while Toronto, Beijing, and Taiwan remained.
> 
> On July 5, WHO declared the SARS outbreak contained and removed Taiwan from the list of affected areas. There had been no new cases for 20 days although around 200 people were still hospitalized with the disease.



Awareness, information and spread timings were different with SARS, and the timing was also different in relation to the seasons.


----------



## skyscraper101 (Jan 30, 2020)

Cid said:


> Were there travel restrictions around SARS? Have completely forgotten how it panned out.



Only thing I remember was complimentary pillows being withdrawn on long haul flights.


----------



## TopCat (Jan 30, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> Agreed.
> 
> A lot of people aren't going to get paid at the end of this month. Things could get quite dangerous.


Why wont they be paid? I'm confused?


----------



## Teaboy (Jan 30, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Why wont they be paid? I'm confused?



Presumably because no work = no pay.


----------



## Cid (Jan 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> I've plucked some relevant entries from the wikipedia SARS timeline, dates are all 2003. Most of this stuff relates to warnings rather than outright bans:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Travel within China was, I think significantly different too... no experience of it then, but for example since 2003 they’ve basically built an entire high speed rail network (over which time we failed to even plan one, but that’s another subject).

Just trying to think in terms of the wider social and economic implications, but really China has changed so rapidly, and the situation is different in any case... almost impossible to draw any useful comparison.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jan 30, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Why wont they be paid? I'm confused?



I don't expect to be paid after February. I know they've done the payroll for that, but since the university is closed indefinitely, they don't know how it'll work for March.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Cid said:


> Just trying to think in terms of the wider social and economic implications, but really China has changed so rapidly, and the situation is different in any case... almost impossible to draw any useful comparison.



Yeah, coupled with too many unknowns at this stage makes it hard for me to make any grand proclamations!

Even the Public Heath Emergency of International Concern system (PHEIC) was only brought in after SARS. By the way I expect one of those to be declared later today and when that is announced it will be consistent with what we already know, not a sign that something we havent been told yet has been discovered.


----------



## JimW (Jan 30, 2020)

There's been some announcements on guaranteeing wages but iirc it varies from province to province, some setting minimum percentages others just suggesting giving a living allowance. Of course. practically unenforceable for many if not most even in best policy areas.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 30, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Why wont they be paid? I'm confused?



Well to give an example, a friend of mine works at a private English training centre. This is actually one of their most profitable times of year because while public schools are closed, parents send their kids to special English courses. These courses are cancelled, so no income for the school, and there will likely be trouble paying staff this month as a result. This will be happening in many, many workplaces.


----------



## TopCat (Jan 30, 2020)

Yeah sure thanks.


----------



## Supine (Jan 30, 2020)

Regarding pharma responses, this from Wuxi who manufacture drugs for lots of big pharma companies 

"the Chinese company also said it has assembled a team of more than 100 R&D folks to work on a variety of “neutralizing antibodies” from some of its biotech clients that may be used against the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). It expects to have the first batch ready for preclinical and human studies in two months and commercial supplies ready in record time. 

“Compared with the traditional timeline of 12 to 18 months, all studies from DNA to IND could hopefully be completed in 4-5 months while maintaining high quality,” it said. Given its reactor capacity, a single batch could make enough antibodies to treat 80,000 patients"


----------



## weltweit (Jan 30, 2020)

I wonder. 

If you get the virus and survive, are you then immune from contracting it again?


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I wonder.
> 
> If you get the virus and survive, are you then immune from contracting it again?



I believe the assumption, unless proven (or at least strongly hinted at) otherwise, is that a good degree of immunity would be granted by having been infected, but this would diminish over time. For two reasons: these sorts of viruses make quite a lot of mistakes when copying themselves, so over time they mutate and diverge away from how they used to look, making our immune systems less likely to recognise them. And it could be that the capability our immune systems build up in regards the virus also declines over time for other reasons unrelated to the virus changing.

One of the things I need to do is spend more time reading about the existing coronaviruses that are not the dramatic SARS and MERS ones, but rather the couple we know about that are responsible for a percentage of the 'common colds' we experience, largely seasonally, and apparently we tend to experience these in waves of worse seasons every 3-4 years. For all I know the perceived 3-4 year cycles could tell us something about longevity of immunity, or it may be down to other factors, or a mix of both. I think I was reading something about one of these strains that suggested genetic research indicated it probably spilled over from bats to humans in the 19th century. So I've only read a small and somewhat random collection of info about these less famous, but make no mistake, highly prevalent coronaviruses have been around all our lives. I think the first thing I thought when I started searching was 'oh no, not another disease that we have researched so much less than I was hoping'.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 30, 2020)

Would having the pneumonia vaccine give any protection?


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Would having the pneumonia vaccine give any protection?



Only in the sense that sometimes more than one infection can happen at the same time, so sometimes other things are given to prevent these co-infections. But it wont actually do anything to prevent coronavirus infection.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> Only in the sense that sometimes more than one infection can happen at the same time, so sometimes other things are given to prevent these co-infections. But it wont actually do anything to prevent coronavirus infection.



Does the coronavirus tend towards pneumonia in worst case scenarios?
I'm just wondering if there's a way to prevent the pneumonia developing.

Eta. Sorry if I am being totally thick about this...


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Does the coronavirus tend towards pneumonia in worst case scenarios?
> I'm just wondering if there's a way to prevent the pneumonia developing.
> 
> Eta. Sorry if I am being totally thick about this...



Pneumonia is a feature of many of the cases that were bad enough to come to the attention of the Chinese health system in the first known stages of this outbreak, yes. And its been a feature of other things like SARS and MERS in the past.

Pneumonia can vary quite a lot in its severity, and a less severe pneumonia is likely to be a feature of quite a lot of the somewhat less severe (but still hospitalised) cases too. Even some mild cases may show evidence of some lung changes associated with pneumonia, just like with some common illnesses where some pneumonia happens in people more often than we realise, but requires no medical intervention to overcome.

Preventing this sort of lung damage is one of the holy grails, since its often a feature of severe cases of various emerging respiratory diseases. There is probably more than one reason why this damage occurs though, so more than one preventative or treatment solution may be required. I dont know if there are many promising candidates in the pipeline, but I dont think there is much that can help at the moment. 

So all the advice will be the general stuff thats already given for viral pneumonia. Which is mostly about hygiene and preventing infection in the first place, trying to optimise overall health as much as possible, and recognising when a case of pneumonia is reaching the point where medical intervention is required.

You arent being thick, you are being very sensible due to understandable concern. I wish I could give you a nice useful answer that is reassuring.  I cannot, and in my own case I have to use my own ways of coming to terms with these things, especially since stress is not good for our bodies any more than it is for our minds. And what works for me is reliant on my own particular worldview and the way I come to terms with life and death, so I can't just throw it out there and expect it to work for evweryone else, in some cases I expect it would have completely the opposite effect.


----------



## Cid (Jan 30, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Does the coronavirus tend towards pneumonia in worst case scenarios?
> I'm just wondering if there's a way to prevent the pneumonia developing.
> 
> Eta. Sorry if I am being totally thick about this...



The pneumonia vaccine doesn't actually protect against pneumonia, it protects against the most common causes of it, all of which (I think) are bacteria. The one for kids protects against 13 organisms, for adults 23 (NHS). So what it does is put dead versions of those bacteria (it's not a live vaccine) into you, so your immune system can identify them and be better able to get rid of them. Viruses can also cause pneumonia, but protection from those is through vaccines specific to those viruses, like the flu vaccine. Of course there is no vaccine for this coronavirus yet, so there's no protection. As elbows just said, there's not really any general protection against lung damage yet.


----------



## T & P (Jan 30, 2020)

I am clearly not getting something here. The Guardian is making a big issue of the fact that the first ‘person to person’ case has been confirmed in the US. But isn’t that how the virus has been spreading all along anyway? 









						Coronavirus: officials confirm first US case of person-to-person transmission
					

Individual married to Chicago woman diagnosed with virus after she returned from a trip to Wuhan, China




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Cid (Jan 30, 2020)

T & P said:


> I am clearly not getting something here. The Guardian is making a big issue of the fact that the first ‘person to person’ case has been confirmed in the US. But isn’t that how the virus has been spreading all along anyway?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I think it's relevant to whether it gets classed as a pandemic. But yeah, at this point it seems a bit redundant to get excited about someone getting a virus that's know to be infectious off their spouse.


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 30, 2020)

T & P said:


> I am clearly not getting something here. The Guardian is making a big issue of the fact that the first ‘person to person’ case has been confirmed in the US. But isn’t that how the virus has been spreading all along anyway?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I think it is significant because it shows it has spread within the US, and it isn't just people arriving from China who have confirmed cases. So the implication is that there are likely many more cases.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Cid said:


> I think it's relevant to whether it gets classed as a pandemic. But yeah, at this point it seems a bit redundant to get excited about someone getting a virus that's know to be infectious off their spouse.



Yes.

Well, I havent even looked at how it would end up classed as a pandemic yet, first there will be PHEIC. And with PHEIC the actual spread abroad, as opposed to the only cases abroad having been originally infected at original source country, will be a factor behind the decision (and was one of the justifications for not declaring a PHEIC last week).

Its an Associated Press story so the Guardian havent spun up this one in particular. Its an inevitable media feature of this stage I think. If the outbreak goes in a certain direction then things will move on to a different stage of reporting and focus, as happened with swine flu. There will still be grim statistics, but less 'firsts' to report on about any given country, and various fears will also become more generalised and hopefully far less spiky along nation and race lines. What wont go away is blatantly different attitudes towards deaths and scale of deaths depending on where in the world the people in question are, a feature of societies and regimes that manifests in the media routinely, and disease outbreaks are no exception.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 30, 2020)

I work for a manufacturer and today I received a call from someone who wanted a part urgently made in the UK. It turns out, up until now, they have been sourced from China and now they're worried.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

As expected the WHO declared the Public Health Emergency of International Concern.


----------



## blameless77 (Jan 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> As expected the WHO declared the Public Health Emergency of International Concern.



About bloody time!


----------



## weltweit (Jan 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> As expected the WHO declared the Public Health Emergency of International Concern.


elbows, what are the implications of this?


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> elbows, what are the implications of this?



There are a big bunch of international legal implications for a start. Some acts some countries take run contrary to some of these, but I'm not clued up on the detail. If its not reported on properly in the next day then I'll try to do my own research.

For example WHO is against travel and trade restrictions in general, and this was just restated by the WHO director general in the WHO press conference I am sort of half-watching right now as I type this.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Jan 30, 2020)

My new job means I am in 5 different GP surgeries per week. A big meeting today at one and we were briefed on how suspected cases should be dealt with. The WHO statement was expected, also expecting one from NHS England.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> ..
> For example WHO is against travel and trade restrictions in general, and this was just restated by the WHO director general in the WHO press conference I am sort of half-watching right now as I type this.


But surely that is against common sense? Surely preventing the spread would be a primary requirement of WHO and others. I am sure in China they are keen to restrict the spread as much as others are internationally.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> elbows, what are the implications of this?



Basically it alerts countries to be on high alert, which they were anyway, WHO is just coming to the party late as usual.

It took them 8 months to declare a 'Public Health Emergency of International Concern' after the Ebola virus epidemic, I guess they are learning lessons & starting to move a little faster.


----------



## miss direct (Jan 30, 2020)

I'm curious as to why some airlines have stopped flying to China, while others (Turkish Airlines) are still going. 

I have a few friends working in that part of the world - all of them are currently out of the country because they're teachers and on winter break. Very interesting observing what they decide to do. One couple with a baby staying away and will work online, one couple based in Hong Kong have gone back because they feared losing their jobs, one other friend in the process of deciding. Another friend was meant to start a new job next week but that's now cancelled/postponed.


----------



## pinkychukkles (Jan 30, 2020)

Any particular brands or types of soap for hand washing that one should favour over others? Apart from just washing hands frequently after contact with public surfaces and thoroughly. Stocks of face masks are becoming difficult to acquire within the UK too atm for what effectiveness they can offer:



> The demand for face masks in the UK appears to be on the rise, PA Media reports.
> 
> On the Boots website, a six-pack of “safe & sound” surgical face masks is sold out, with a note saying they will not be receiving any further stock.
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> But surely that is against common sense? Surely preventing the spread would be a primary requirement of WHO and others. I am sure in China they are keen to restrict the spread as much as others are internationally.



Their stance will be based on a number of different things. Such as:

Standing against arbitrary decisions regarding border closures, visa refusals, and wide quarantine nets. They will question such decisions and will probe whether particular decisions have a genuine scientific basis, whether they are proportionate etc.

International politics, the prevailing global order, global trade, neoliberalism, etc. Other political sensitivities. 

For example the Director General has spent quite a long time praising China in the press conference. Some of this is 'diplomacy', and some of it is a completely reasonable response given that a number of aspects of the Chinese response and data sharing have been quite impressive, and some of the criticism of them unfair or unrealistic. But there will be contradictions, eg some steps China have taken are unlikely to be considered to be proportionate by WHO doctrine in normal times.

As it happens the bit of the press conference I heard included the Director General going too far when expressing his confidence in Chinas capacity to control this outbreak, but thats just my opinion, and again if it was an error its one I consider was made because of the context - these political and diplomatic angles rather than the actual characteristics of the spread and humanities ability to prevent it.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 30, 2020)

pinkychukkles said:


> Any particular brands or types of soap for hand washing that one should favour over others? Apart from just washing hands frequently after contact with public surfaces and thoroughly. Stocks of face masks are becoming difficult to acquire within the UK too atm for what effectiveness they can offer:


I've written this before...


2hats said:


> The key part of hand washing is the mechanical process - the water and detergent are just helping to dislodge foreign bug carrying material from yours hands - but it's the thorough rubbing of hands together in a stream of suitable solvent that does almost all the work. You can use alcohol based washes (or some other anti-bacterial solution) to kill most bacteria as well but they won't do anything to a wide range of viruses - nor will hot water. Hence the thorough scrubbing ritual practised by surgeons pre-op to physically shift potential sources of infection. Rinsing ones hands under a stream of hot water is next to useless. Using a detergent at least promotes some effort on the part of user to rub their hands together in order to apply and then remove it.


At the loo sinks of one of the labs I work in we have these on the soap dispensers:


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Since I am a bit lacking in time for this particular angle right now, I will just offer this quote from a WHO page on the International Health Regulations (IHR 2005) to illustrate my previous point. As far as I know those regulations are also where the whole Public Health Emergency of International Concern comes from.



> While international transport, travel and trade contribute to economic development and welfare of populations, they may also pose public health risks. Today’s high traffic at airports, ports and ground crossings can play a key role in the international spread of diseases through persons, conveyances and goods.
> 
> Under the International Health Regulations (IHR 2005), Member States are requested to maintain public health measures and response capacity at designated airports, ports and ground crossings. This protects the health of travellers and the population, keeps ports, airports and ground crossings running, and ensures ships, aircrafts and ground transportation are in sanitary condition so that no unnecessary health-based restrictions are placed on international traffic and trade.
> 
> WHO supports Member States in putting into action event management and preparedness plans at points of entry and facilitates the implementation of appropriate measures in response to public health risks that do not impose unwarranted restrictions on travel and trade. We also produce, update, and disseminate technical guidance and training tools to support Member States in developing competencies to fulfill their IHR requirements at points of entry.











						Minimizing health risks at airports, ports and ground crossings
					

While international transport, travel and trade contribute to economic development and welfare of populations, they may also pose public health risks. Today’s high traffic at airports, ports and ground crossings can play a key role in the international spread of diseases through persons...




					www.who.int
				




So as well as aspects that can just make me cynically refer to neoliberalism or diplomacy, the WHOs role is made complicated by the fact they are trying to encourage a balance between preventing the damage an outbreak causes, and discouraging the damage countries disproportionate responses to it may cause. Real human damage if things are not proportionate. So dont be expecting them to clap every draconian measure or support the wrong sort of overabundance of caution expressed crudely by particular countries.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> Pneumonia is a feature of many of the cases that were bad enough to come to the attention of the Chinese health system in the first known stages of this outbreak, yes. And its been a feature of other things like SARS and MERS in the past.
> 
> Pneumonia can vary quite a lot in its severity, and a less severe pneumonia is likely to be a feature of quite a lot of the somewhat less severe (but still hospitalised) cases too. Even some mild cases may show evidence of some lung changes associated with pneumonia, just like with some common illnesses where some pneumonia happens in people more often than we realise, but requires no medical intervention to overcome.
> 
> ...




Thank you...


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

And the WHO Director Generals statement is here:









						IHR Emergency Committee on Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
					






					www.who.int
				




I will not quote the lengthy opening where the diplomatic aspects are on full and repeated display.

But I will quote the summary of recommendations from the committee, the first of which again makes very clear my previous point, and then the others move on to all the other areas. Also supporting countries with weak healthcare systems is one of the key purposes of declaring the PHEIC, so it is not surprising to see this aspect highlighted today.



> First, there is no reason for measures that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. WHO doesn’t recommend limiting trade and movement.
> 
> We call on all countries to implement decisions that are evidence-based and consistent. WHO stands ready to provide advice to any country that is considering which measures to take.
> 
> ...



And his final remarks (although there was also a Q&A afterwards which is what I saw a bit of live via a stream and is not transcribed on that particular page)



> This is the time for facts, not fear.
> 
> This is the time for science, not rumours.
> 
> This is the time for solidarity, not stigma.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 30, 2020)

British evacuees are going to be quarantined in Birkenhead.









						100 Brits in coronavirus quarantine will be held in Merseyside
					

The flight set to leave Wuhan city tonight




					www.liverpoolecho.co.uk


----------



## agricola (Jan 30, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> British evacuees are going to be quarantined in Birkenhead.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Great, now we can expect a coastwatch at Talacre and the Dee Bridge to have a checkpoint on it.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Again continuing my same WHO travel ban etc theme, I would expect the UK quarantine measures to also come under stuff being highlighted in these tweets.


----------



## spitfire (Jan 30, 2020)

I'm sure someone will tell me this is relatively ineffective but 10/10 for improvisation!


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Hancock giving the WHO ammo about our disproportionate response already:



> Margaret Greenwood, the Labour MP for Wirral West, said she had been told by health secretary Matt Hancock that experts believed it was unlikely that those quarantined had the virus



Thats from an entry on the Guardians live updates article for today. Coronavirus: WHO declares global emergency but stresses confidence in China – live news


----------



## Supine (Jan 30, 2020)

*Johnson & Johnson *on Wednesday unveiled its “multi-pronged” response that includes a vaccine R&D effort in a "skunkworks" in the Netherlands, according to Chief Scientific Officer Paul Stoffels. It's also testing whether existing medicines could tackle the novel virus and donating antiviral drugs to Chinese hospitals.


*Meanwhile, AbbVie's HIV drug Kaletra *was plucked out by Chinese authorities for use against the pneumonia triggered by the novel virus. AbbVie in turn announced a $1.5 million donation of the drug.
*Moderna Therapeutics and Inovio are scrambling *to develop vaccines of their own, and local outbreak preparedness group CEPI has pledged funding for their early-stage efforts. The group formed in response to prior outbreaks and has doled out hundreds of millions of dollars for outbreak prep efforts. Inovio and Moderna are only two of the early vaccine efforts that have been announced; Moderna believes its mRNA vaccine technology could "serve as a rapid and flexibleplatform" to respond to emerging pathogens, including the new coronavirus.


----------



## Callie (Jan 30, 2020)

Lupa sorry to divert the conversation but I believe the "pneumonia vaccine" you have mentioned is nothing to do with the general condition pneumonia but against a specific organism (Streptococcus pneumoniae) which is a common cause (especially in the old and immunocompromised) of respiratory infections and pneumonia. I think where Cid's link talks of different types it relates to the fact that you can have different strains/variations of S. pneumoniae.

To my knowledge there is no pneumonia vaccine as it is caused by such a wide range of viruses/bacteria/fungi that it would not be possible.

I don't know how likely a vaccine against a Coronavirus is. If they are able to sufficiently mutate regularly there may not be much chance to find a suitable target to make the vaccine for to trigger a good immune response.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Supine said:


> *Meanwhile, AbbVie's HIV drug Kaletra *was plucked out by Chinese authorities for use against the pneumonia triggered by the novel virus. AbbVie in turn announced a $1.5 million donation of the drug.



If anyone remembers the expert who thinks he got infected via his eyeball, that someone posted about earlier in the thread, he pops up in this story too!

I google translated a long story about him, and as well as the eyeball stuff, there is this:



> During the interview, his attending doctor greeted him outside the door, and Wang Guangfa blurted out: "You are my life-saving benefactor."
> 
> Wang Guangfa told reporters that this is because the doctor suggested that he use a drug called "lopinavirlitonavir tablets", which is an antiviral drug for AIDS. This drug is effective in his case, but it is unclear whether it will be effective in other patients and follow-up observations are needed. Earlier, Academician Zhong Nanshan once said that currently there is no specific medicine for this new type of pneumonia.



(taken from a translation of 独家专访王广发：我是怎么被感染的？-中新网 )

I suppose I'm not surprised to hear of drugs originally licensed for other purposes, that had shown some sort of potential in past studies, end up getting given to patients at times like these, especially if the patient works in the profession!

Missing is not just info about whether its been tried on anyone else, but also I dont think I have read anything that indicated to me quite how sick from the coronavirus this man had become in the first place.

Also I consider that the word pneumonia is often used as shorthand for broader aspects of the infection in these sorts of things, so it can cause confusion. eg I dont know as this drugs potential is for pneumonia prevention specifically, as opposed to generally tackling the coronavirus infection, which will invariably improve symptoms such as pneumonia.


----------



## spring-peeper (Jan 30, 2020)

Apparently, some people are wearing water jugs on their heads to prevent getting the virus.





> In pictures posted on Facebook on Jan. 28 by Lynn Carter, a woman can be seen at Vancouver International Airport wearing what appears to be a plastic water bottle on her head while also donning a surgical mask over her mouth.
> 
> 
> 
> ...











						Will wearing water jugs on your head combat coronavirus?
					

As if wearing face masks, washing your hands and using sanitizer wasn’t enough.




					edmontonsun.com


----------



## Cid (Jan 30, 2020)

That and pharmaceutical companies will tend to jump on potential new uses for their products with an enthusiasm matched only by a golden retriever in heat.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 30, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> Apparently, some people are wearing water jugs on their heads to prevent getting the virus.


Top marks for improvisation. Protects one of the other key soft wet entry points.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Cid said:


> That and pharmaceutical companies will tend to jump on potential new uses for their products with an enthusiasm matched only by a horny golden retriever.



Yes the press release explosion has been noted with much skepticism in these quarters!

Generally I would say that despite various optimistic stories, we shouldnt expect anything during the current season, maybe if it becomes a thing that returns seasonally then we will have something for next season, but even that will be impressive.

What I dont rule out is that China might sidestep the normal procedures and try something in a big way in the coming months, which could in turn challenge my assumptions about the future timetable.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)




----------



## Supine (Jan 30, 2020)

Kaletra is an hiv drug which stops the hiv virus multiplying. It has been used successfully on one patient so far in this outbreak. It'll be donated to see if it's effective on a wider population of affected patients. 

This link details a limited trial in which kaletra has been used in an unofficial trial on patients from this outbreak.



			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

2hats said:


> Top marks for improvisation. Protects one of the other key soft wet entry points.



Yeah. Effectiveness will come down to other factors such as whether you fiddle with it, how you put it on and take it off and the order that you wash your hands during this process. eg all the theoretical good direct protection of eyes etc that could come from wearing it all day is wasted if the first thing you do after removing it is rub your finger in your eye.


----------



## spitfire (Jan 30, 2020)

_COUGH_ ahem...



spitfire said:


> I'm sure someone will tell me this is relatively ineffective but 10/10 for improvisation!
> 
> View attachment 197122





spring-peeper said:


> Apparently, some people are wearing water jugs on their heads to prevent getting the virus.
> 
> View attachment 197128
> 
> ...





2hats said:


> Top marks for improvisation. Protects one of the other key soft wet entry points.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Supine said:


> This link details a limited trial in which kaletra has been used in an unofficial trial on patients from this outbreak.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext



Thanks, I'd read that study before because it caused me to moan about corticosteroids, but I had forgotten all the antivaral info in it, which I will now quote.



> No antiviral treatment for coronavirus infection has been proven to be effective. In a historical control study, 31the combination of lopinavir and ritonavir among SARS-CoV patients was associated with substantial clinical benefit (fewer adverse clinical outcomes). Arabi and colleagues initiated a placebo-controlled trial of interferon beta-1b, lopinavir, and ritonavir among patients with MERS infection in Saudi Arabia. 32Preclinical evidence showed the potent efficacy of remdesivir (a broad-spectrum antiviral nucleotide prodrug) to treat MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV infections.33,  34 As 2019-nCoV is an emerging virus, an effective treatment has not been developed for disease resulting from this virus. Since the combination of lopinavir and ritonavir was already available in the designated hospital, a randomised controlled trial has been initiated quickly to assess the efficacy and safety of combined use of lopinavir and ritonavir in patients hospitalised with 2019-nCoV infection.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2020)

Argh.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Jan 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> Argh.




In a way he's right.  The black death killed so many people that worker's wages went up across Europe.  If a couple hundred million people die, maybe wages will go up.  YEAH!


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> For example the Director General has spent quite a long time praising China in the press conference. Some of this is 'diplomacy', and some of it is a completely reasonable response given that a number of aspects of the Chinese response and data sharing have been quite impressive, and some of the criticism of them unfair or unrealistic. But there will be contradictions, eg some steps China have taken are unlikely to be considered to be proportionate by WHO doctrine in normal times.



I think it's worth reiterating how much the political direction under Xi Jinping is to blame for this crisis. There is too much stuff in western media praising the CCP for a swift response, but the reality is that they are only making a show of doing a lot now that it is already out of control, and they initially tried to sweep it under the rug. They deserve criticism, not praise for this, and Xi Jinping in particular deserves to burn for it.

The first case was reported December 8th, and it was hushed up. Nothing was done. 

By December 31st, there were 27 confirmed cases. Still nothing was done.

In early January, the Wuhan government started arresting people who posted about it online for "spreading rumours" even though they were reporting the truth. This was embarrassing to the Wuhan government who swept it under the rug.

From January 6th to January 17th, Wuhan hosted two important political conferences and prioritized suppressing any embarrassment during this time.

The first death was January 11th. Still nothing was done.

On January 14th, journalists who reported on it were arrested. 

The government continued to lie, insisting that human to human transmission was impossible, and arresting those who reported otherwise.

On January 16th, 49 cases were confirmed. Still the government downplayed it and claimed human to human transmission was impossible.

On January 18th, a record breaking attempt at a New Year's Banquet was held in Wuhan for 40,000 families, with people eating from the same dishes, only 3km away from market where it originated. The government issued 200,000 free travel tickets to get people to the event.

On January 19th, Chinese officials published a statement saying that it was not infectious and there was no need for concern.

On January 20th, pulmonologist Zhong Nanshan confirmed human to human transmission.

On January 21st, a New Year Celebration event was held in which several performers were ill. State media praised them for continuing despite the illness.

January 22nd, the government finally warns people in Wuhan to wear masks.

January 23rd, quarantine, after 5 million people had already left Wuhan to return to hometowns for Spring Festival.

The Central Government is blaming the Wuhan local government for this. But it is the central government under Xi Jinping who have decimated civil society and banned the vast majority of NGOs from operating, it is the central government under Xi Jinping who has tightened internet censorship to an extreme degree and created over active censors, and it is the central government under Xi Jinping who have continually promoted an ideology of "positive energy" which in essence means ignoring bad news, and it is the central government under Xi Jinping who have purged all opponents in the party to create a yes-man culture.

Their reaction now is extreme as a way of compensating and looking like they are doing a lot, but they are to blame for this. In fact, the Mayor of Wuhan who has been forced to resign has claimed that he was unable to alert people due to rules that required Beijing's approval to release sensitive information. So again, the centralisation of political power in the hands of the "Chairman of Everything" Xi Jinping is to blame. Wuhan Mayor Says Beijing Rules Partially Responsible for Lack of Transparency

I leave you with a message from a Wuhan resident, in quite beautiful and clear Mandarin:


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 30, 2020)

On a slightly more light hearted note, a Chinese friend just shared this video with me - a song about the coronavirus to the tune of Sound of Silence, a little cheesy but quite cute.


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> I think it's worth reiterating how much the political direction under Xi Jinping is to blame for this crisis. There is too much stuff in western media praising the CCP for a swift response, but the reality is that they are only making a show of doing a lot now that it is already out of control, and they initially tried to sweep it under the rug. They deserve criticism, not praise for this, and Xi Jinping in particular deserves to burn for it.
> 
> The first case was reported December 8th, and it was hushed up. Nothing was done.
> 
> ...



The last thing I want to do is spent time defending aspects of the Chinese response, but anything full of 'nothing was done' statements relating to certain stages tends to provoke a response from me.

Lots of things were done that are really important, such as notifying the WHO on December 31st, and then providing a flow of data, samples, research. Thats not trivial stuff, it matters hugely and it happened.

This is in no way a claim that they did everything that could possibly be done at the right moment, or that there are no failings of all sorts of different political and administrative levels which can be explored and condemned where appropriate.

But in the context of responses to novel disease outbreaks, there are all sorts of real reasons why some aspects of the response have been impressive to people, to members of the scientific and health community. That is no consolation whatsoever for anyone affected in Wuhan or elsewhere by this outbreak. But people who compare this to other events and government responses in the past are going to find reasons to praise, as well as reasons for concern. And I will never support the idea that none of the praise is justified just because of all the other baggage. Versions of the story that imply China was simply negligent for not waving a magic wand at a critical moment in December do not seem well connected to the past realities of humanities actual capability to nip outbreaks in the bud. Especially because in the early days recognising the nature of a cluster of illnesses may take a painfully long time. Surveillance can be tricky, and other countries capabilities in this realm are also far less sophisticated than everyone would like.

I really hope the limited scope of my point on this one is clear, I really dont want to have to go over all the things I am not giving China a 'get out of jail free card' over with their response to this outbreak.

Depending on how this outbreak evolves, there will no doubt be other things that China does that people will find good reason to criticise, and I have absolutely no problem with that. But there may also be further opportunities to judge the responses and shortcomings of other nations, which may offer more opportunities to put all this stuff in perspective.


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

And if the praise from some quarters seems far too lavish, there are practical considerations behind that too.

The idea is that they are trying to reinforce the lesson that disclosure and information sharing with an entity like the WHO is a good thing for the country making the painful disclosures. So when a country like China that sat on stuff for ages in relation to SARS years ago, instead engages with the WHO, they want to encourage more of the same. Heavily praising their efforts so far is part of that, and is arguably well justified in its own right when it comes to a number of areas in particular.

Plus a lot of this sort of things tends to sit fairly well with another key function and role of entities like the WHO. Its another complex area that can get messy quickly or backfire - maintaining or restoring public faith in health advice and authorities. Including panic reduction, misinformation debunking, and yes in the current global order and the high degree of specialisation, a degree of paternalism and 'we know best' that isnt what we'd ideally want from civilisation. In my mind there are sensible reasons to be a bit cynical about these things, but we also see the horrors that can emerge in voids where all of this stuff has broken down or backfired and people construct a sense of the disease, how to fight it, who to blame etc that may be utterly divorced from scientific and medical reality. And yes some of the mistakes China likely made can undermine the best and most decent efforts in this realm, so I'm not just bringing up all these points as shields, some of them can be used as weapons of criticism too.


----------



## Part-timah (Jan 31, 2020)

Here’s a short podcast by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine discussing their efforts to mathematically model the outbreak:


----------



## Rimbaud (Jan 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> And if the praise from some quarters seems far too lavish, there are practical considerations behind that too.
> 
> The idea is that they are trying to reinforce the lesson that disclosure and information sharing with an entity like the WHO is a good thing for the country making the painful disclosures. So when a country like China that sat on stuff for ages in relation to SARS years ago, instead engages with the WHO, they want to encourage more of the same. Heavily praising their efforts so far is part of that, and is arguably well justified in its own right when it comes to a number of areas in particular.



Thanks for a thoughtful and informative response.


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> Thanks for a thoughtful and informative response.



Cheers to you too for not taking anything I said as some attempt to destroy your points or shutdown all criticism of China.

And sorry that I added a bit more to my post after you had already liked it and were in the process of responding to it. I really should try to let my thoughts on a particular detail finish flowing before I press the post button!


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

I really tried, but I just could not help but find the contrast in masks amusing.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Jan 31, 2020)

He could only find one of those gas masks in the shop or it came from his personal collection?


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 31, 2020)

His wife and mother look like they're still not talking to him after he decided to take the fancy mask for himself.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 31, 2020)

More than 9,600 confirmed as infected now.  

That's more than the 8,098 SARS cases, which was over a 9-month period.


----------



## maomao (Jan 31, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> More than 9.600 confirmed as infected now.


That's less than 10.


----------



## Cid (Jan 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> I really tried, but I just could not help but find the contrast in masks amusing.




He could at least have got one for his wife... I had a mask like that in China though, because I got into carving jade, they're relatively cheap there. Would be much more effective than a standard mask, and the silicon is... reasonably comfortable. But... 12 hour plane trip.


----------



## MrCurry (Jan 31, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> British evacuees are going to be quarantined in Birkenhead.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Presumably they will be kept under observation to ensure they don’t develop any symptoms of being scouse?  Any who start to blurt out “alright alright alright our kid!” will be prevented from rejoining the general population, etc?


----------



## MrCurry (Jan 31, 2020)

This outbreak shows no signs of being contained, so shouldn’t we be asking ourselves what measures we should sensibly be taking to prepare?  I don’t suppose face masks can be easily obtained at this stage (maybe two weeks ago), but stocking the house with some non perishables seems smart to me.  In another couple of weeks the UK govt might be advising people to stay home and avoid all travel, or am I getting things totally out of proportion?

This is unprecedented, so I really don’t know what measures western governments are likely to take when this starts spreading over here, which it seems it inevitably will.


----------



## Cid (Jan 31, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> He could only find one of those gas masks in the shop or it came from his personal collection?



Not a gas mask really... I use them for carving wood (and the aforementioned jade) as they have a much better seal and - to me - are easier to wear for a long time than the simple disposable ones. And obviously the filter is very effective. I got it for spray lacquers, but became my general work mask. Honestly everyone in China should wear those anyway, as they're really the only effective way to deal with the pollution, but no-one does.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 31, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> ....or am I getting things totally out of proportion?



Yes.

It's bad, being something new, but to put it into perspective, between 250k - 500k+ people across the world die from flu every year. 

So far only 14 cases have been reported in Europe, as long as numbers remain fairly low, it should be manageable to contain. 

Updated today -



> *Cases have been reported in the following continents:
> Asia:* China (9 723), Thailand (14), Japan (14), Singapore (13), Taiwan (9), Malaysia (8), Republic of Korea (7), United Arab Emirates (4), Vietnam (5), Cambodia (1), Nepal (1), The Philippines (1), India (1), and Sri Lanka (1).
> *Europe:* France (6), Germany (5), Italy (2) and Finland (1).
> *America:* the United States (6) and Canada (3).
> *Oceania:* Australia (9).











						COVID-19 situation update worldwide
					

This update has been discontinued - please see the Weekly Country Overview report.




					www.ecdc.europa.eu


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 31, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I don’t suppose face masks can be easily obtained at this stage (maybe two weeks ago), but stocking the house with some non perishables seems smart to me.



Did people eat their Brexit supplies already?


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 31, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Did people eat their Brexit supplies already?



Been stocking up since last April. 
lots of rice  pasta, beans, bread mixes, tea, milk powder, rolled oats, honey, jam and splenda. There's 10 blocks of cheese in the fridge. And frozen ceg and tinned veg. Enough to keep me going for a good while.


----------



## skyscraper101 (Jan 31, 2020)

Good time to dig out the old Altern8 rave masks


----------



## skyscraper101 (Jan 31, 2020)

Especially now it seems...


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 31, 2020)

Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, statement about cases of novel coronavirus in England -



> We can confirm that two patients in England, who are members of the same family, have tested positive for coronavirus. The patients are receiving specialist NHS care, and we are using tried and tested infection control procedures to prevent further spread of the virus.
> 
> The NHS is extremely well-prepared and used to managing infections and we are already working rapidly to identify any contacts the patients had, to prevent further spread.
> 
> We have been preparing for UK cases of novel coronavirus and we have robust infection control measures in place to respond immediately. We are continuing to work closely with the World Health Organization and the international community as the outbreak in China develops to ensure we are ready for all eventualities.











						CMO confirms cases of coronavirus in England
					

Chief Medical Officer, Professor Chris Whitty, statement about cases of novel coronavirus in England.




					www.gov.uk


----------



## skyscraper101 (Jan 31, 2020)

Two UK cases are in Newcastle, apparently.


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> His wife and mother look like they're still not talking to him after he decided to take the fancy mask for himself.



My interpretation was that they were embarrassed to be seen with him, and were hoping that someone would declare a Public Humiliation Event of International Concern.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 31, 2020)

skyscraper101 said:


> Two UK cases are in Newcastle, apparently.


 
Think York but now in Newcastle


----------



## Cid (Jan 31, 2020)

Potentially they’ve traveled within the UK before diagnosis?


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

'Analysis' section in the BBC story about this also has this:



> Last night, doctors in Germany confirmed cases there had spread before people even developed symptoms.











						Coronavirus: Two cases confirmed in UK
					

Two family members receive treatment, as Britons flown home from China are quarantined on Merseyside.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




I wasnt surprised when this possibility was mooted a while back, but there was quite a bit of resistance to it. Some of that was just scientists being scientific by wishing to see evidence, but some of it was probably down to not wanting to think the unthinkable - I think there is a natural bias in favour of scenarios where the picture is mostly visible and somewhat controllable.

I've not gone looking for more info about the Germany stuff yet. I've come down with a cold or something so my capacity to be a nerd is diminished today!


----------



## Teaboy (Jan 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> . I've come down with a cold or something so my capacity to be a nerd is diminished today!



I'm sorry but despite your much appreciated work on this thread we now need to quarantine you away from the thread for all our safety.


----------



## Numbers (Jan 31, 2020)

Make up some Virus Eating Anarchist masks.


----------



## Grace Johnson (Jan 31, 2020)

elbows I have learnt a lot from your knowledgeable and insightful posts on this thread. Got me thinking deeper and I appreciate that. Thank you. Respect


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> 'Analysis' section in the BBC story about this also has this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Must be catchin'
I've come down with a bug too...


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 31, 2020)

I have a cold and have spent much of this year working with PRC expats...


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jan 31, 2020)

_coughs on thread_


Have a couple of weeks off work . Don’t worry, it’s my gift to you.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 31, 2020)

It's being spread via the internet, now urbs are being infected, its a computer virus that's mutated.


----------



## skyscraper101 (Jan 31, 2020)




----------



## JimW (Jan 31, 2020)

I've been posting from the infection zone the whole time, bwah ha ha.


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

I have seen that the UK chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, ended up going on about a mortality rate of 2% when speaking earlier.

eg:



Well, from what I've learnt so far, care is required over what this number actually is. The real case fatality rate wont be known for a long time. The thing that currently comes out at about 2% is the proportion of fatal cases.

Luckily I stumbled straight onto this article which seems to be just right for helping to remove this confusion and its even got the 2% figure in it.









						Clarity, Please, on the Coronavirus Statistics
					

Sorting through the different ways of describing the “deadliness” of infectious diseases.




					issues.org
				






> Furthermore, when calculating CFR, the denominator includes only cases that have resolved—that is, cases where the patient has either died or recovered. This is why dividing total deaths by the total number of cases—a simple calculation that many media outlets have been wont to do with 2019–nCoV—isn’t an accurate indication of CFR until the end of an outbreak. Before the end of an outbreak, dividing the total deaths by the total number of cases may be better defined as the proportion of fatal cases (PFC) rather than as the CFR.





> In the context of the ongoing 2019–nCoV outbreak, and focusing just on China, only 235 cases have resolved as of the end of January 28, 2020—132 (56 percent) of which have died and 103 (44 percent) of which have been discharged after recovery. However, a whopping 5,739 remain hospitalized—which is in large part why we should expect these numbers to fluctuate considerably as the outbreak progresses. Notably, only 21 percent of the confirmed cases that are currently hospitalized are considered “severe,” which suggests that many more may recover in the days and weeks ahead.





> Given these numbers, we can at least calculate the proportion of fatal cases, which, as mentioned above, is a somewhat cruder statistic that divides the total deaths by the total number of cases. As of now, the PFC can be calculated as about 2 percent—although it, like the CFR, will continue to fluctuate until the end of the outbreak, when the two figures will ultimately converge.


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

Argh!


----------



## 8ball (Jan 31, 2020)

Couple of guys on the tram wearing masks this morning.  No one seemed ruffled or even to notice, really.

One thing I found interesting was the shouting of encouragement to each other in Wuhan from locked-down tower blocks.
Is that a Chinese thing generally, or something spontaneous that could happen anywhere?


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> Argh!






"Staying at home is contributing to society "....
😳

Waiting for "Everything's not awesome
But that doesn't mean that it's hopeless and bleak"


----------



## maomao (Jan 31, 2020)

8ball said:


> Couple of guys on the tram wearing masks this morning.  No one seemed ruffled or even to notice, really.
> 
> One thing I found interesting was the shouting of encouragement to each other in Wuhan from locked-down tower blocks.
> Is that a Chinese thing generally, or something spontaneous that could happen anywhere?


I have lived in a Chinese tower block, and stayed in others, but have never seen this happen. 

I wasn't joking earlier when I said my inlaws were enjoying this. For a certain age/class of Chinese people it's bringing back a sense of joint venture as a nation which has been slowly disappearing over the last couple of decades. I think the workers at state owned companies, party members etc. will be looked after but there will be trouble at some point when everyone else starts going hungry.


----------



## Cid (Jan 31, 2020)

8ball said:


> Couple of guys on the tram wearing masks this morning.  No one seemed ruffled or even to notice, really.



Chinese guys? Many do this time of year anyway.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 31, 2020)

I would like to know a bit more about these English cases. I suppose we can assume someone travelled from China to bring the disease with them.  Presumably one or both of the people infected travelled from there?


----------



## Teaboy (Jan 31, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I would like to know a bit more about these English cases. I suppose we can assume someone travelled from China to bring the disease with them.  Presumably one or both of the people infected travelled from there?



Honest question.  Why?  What good can come from it?  It turning up in the UK was always inevitable and as a result we will likely have a number of cases here.  

What will you do with the information?  I'm not having a go I just think there is a danger of getting very worked up and worried about something we have no control over.


----------



## quimcunx (Jan 31, 2020)

8ball said:


> Couple of guys on the tram wearing masks this morning.  No one seemed ruffled or even to notice, really.
> 
> One thing I found interesting was the shouting of encouragement to each other in Wuhan from locked-down tower blocks.
> Is that a Chinese thing generally, or something spontaneous that could happen anywhere?



They had a similar thing in Tehran in 2009 when people would should Allahu Akbar at night during protests/ a curfew, I think.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 31, 2020)

Cid said:


> Chinese guys? Many do this time of year anyway.



Yeah.  And yes, have noticed it in the past, but thought there might be heightened general awareness this time.


----------



## MrCurry (Jan 31, 2020)

First confirmed case has shown up in Sweden. A woman returned to Jönköpings county in Sweden from Wuhan Jan 24 with no signs of sickness. After getting a dry cough she’s sought treatment and been confirmed as Coronavirus so now in isolation. 

I have a link, but it’s in Swedish, so not much point in posting it.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 31, 2020)

8ball said:


> One thing I found interesting was the shouting of encouragement to each other in Wuhan from locked-down tower blocks.
> Is that a Chinese thing generally, or something spontaneous that could happen anywhere?



Protesters in Hong Kong started doing it in August.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Jan 31, 2020)

skyscraper101 said:


> Especially now it seems...




Lucky all the hospitals in this country aren't running at over 90% of capacity already, if they were we'd be well and truly boned about now.


----------



## LDC (Jan 31, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> Lucky all the hospitals in this country aren't running at over 90% of capacity already, if they were we'd be well and truly boned about now.



I know right. How the fuck can anyone who works in the NHS be confident we'll be able to cope with a large number of infected people? Normal winter pressures and it's touch and go whether it will collapse.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Jan 31, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I know right. How the fuck can anyone who works in the NHS be confident we'll be able to cope with a large number of infected people? Normal winter pressures and it's touch and go whether it will collapse.



We've been lucky so far as it's been a winter barely worthy of the name. But it seems to be peak time all year round in hospitals these days.


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> We've been lucky so far as it's been a winter barely worthy of the name. But it seems to be peak time all year round in hospitals these days.



The flu peaked early in the UK this season, so at least a chunk of that burden is already in the past. I assume this is why the 'hospitals struggling to cope' stories came earlier in the season this time too.

There has been a bit of winter excess mortality though, but not anything like to the same degree as in a bad flu season.

A few of the charts from this weeks flu report (https://assets.publishing.service.g...kly_national_influenza_report_week_5_2020.pdf )


----------



## Supine (Jan 31, 2020)

Roche have developed diagnostic equipment already



			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
		


Although there are reports that it is proving difficult to get them into locked down cities at the moment.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 31, 2020)

Do they know how long the virus can live on surfaces?


----------



## weltweit (Jan 31, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Honest question.  Why?  What good can come from it?  It turning up in the UK was always inevitable and as a result we will likely have a number of cases here.
> 
> What will you do with the information?  I'm not having a go I just think there is a danger of getting very worked up and worried about something we have no control over.


Oh no I just want to see the pattern of infections remains the same.  I am not worked up about anything.


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

Supine said:


> Roche have developed diagnostic equipment already
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That type of test has been around for over 2 decades, including commercially. I dont know how long Roches version of the equipment has been around but its not new by any means.

When I say that, I'm talking about the various lab equipment used to be able to perform this type of testing.

So likely what they really mean is that they now also offer the appropriate Real-time PCR arrays to use with their existing range of equipment to detect this coronavirus. I expect that even before they offered this bit themselves, labs could still use their equipment to do this, they just needed the right primers/probes, and China had quickly come up with initial versions of these. But obviously its always useful to have multiple sources of supply, and to have manufacturers of the lab equipment used in the process fully on board.

Anyway this is a subject that I dont have direct lab experience of so it would be easy for me to get something wrong. Take my use of terminilogy with a pinch of salt. Mind you, I did skim through instructions provided by the CDC for performing this sort of test in relation to the new coronavirus. Some of the existing Roche equipment and kits I mentioned are listed in the Nucleic Acid Extraction section.









						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.




					www.cdc.gov
				




How reassuring it is to note that the world of silly product names and marketing is alive and well in this sector, but bleach will still do the job!

Acceptable surface decontaminants
DNAZapTM (Life Technologies, cat. #AM9890)
DNA AwayTM (Fisher Scientific; cat. #21-236-28)
RNAse AwayTM (Fisher Scientific; cat. #21-236-21
10% bleach (1:10 dilution of commercial 5.25-6.0% sodium hypochlorite)

I am looking forward to doing my first live gig performing with the QIAamp® MinElute Virus Spin Kit


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Do they know how long the virus can live on surfaces?



Not this coronavirus in particular, but Im sure its expected to be the same as other coronaviruses where some of this research has been done in the past. I spoke about it the other day, though I am miles away from actually finding all the researh available on the subject.

Can certainly say that how long it can survive on surfaces and infect people is dependent on at least the following factors, and maybe some I dont know about:

What material the surface is made of.
Temperature.
Humidity.
Amount of virus deposited.
What sort of biological substances the gunk consists of apart from the virus itself.

The UK coach company seem tho have gone for 10 days as a period to leave their coaches unused after they have been deep cleaned. I expect this goes quite far beyond the scientific basis for caution. I expect the risk of infection from surfaces falls rather rapidly, there may be some virus left after several days, or maybe even 5 days with the right material, temperature and humidity, but whether it still exists at that time period in sufficient quantities to infect people is debatable. 

Much of the emphasis regarding surfaces in real world infection-prevention is on suitable cleaning regimes, rather than how long the nasties will lurk if the cleaning isnt done. That and some attempts to promote the use of specific surface materials that arent kind to viruses or bacteria in various healthcare settings and some other environments with high public footfall rates. In terms of this latter stuff being promoted in ways that were somewhat visible to the public, go back some years to the focus on MRSA and measures to stop it lurking in hospitals etc.


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Oh no I just want to see the pattern of infections remains the same.  I am not worked up about anything.



It doesnt sound like the UK health authorities want to officially release much info about the specifics of positive cases. In this case some additional info is available in the media because the suspected cases falling ill at a hotel in York was already reported on before the test came back positive.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> It doesnt sound like the UK health authorities want to officially release much info about the specifics of positive cases. In this case some additional info is available in the media because the suspected cases falling ill at a hotel in York was already reported on before the test came back positive.


Aha I hadn't heard anything about this hotel in York. Hopefully they will be tracing anyone this couple came into contact with.


----------



## AmateurAgitator (Jan 31, 2020)

I’ve seen BSE, Ebola, SARS, swine flu and bird flu come and go in my lifetime alone. The corona virus will amount to even less.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Jan 31, 2020)

Count Cuckula said:


> The corona virus will amount to even less.




Oh..no.
You had to say that...tempting fate...
Now we are all fucked.


----------



## andysays (Jan 31, 2020)

Count Cuckula said:


> I’ve seen BSE, Ebola, SARS, swine flu and bird flu come and go in my lifetime alone. The corona virus will amount to even less.


Pretty sure I read yesterday that more people have now died as a result of the corona virus than from SARS, so I won't pay too much attention to your ill informed nonsense


----------



## Combustible (Jan 31, 2020)

andysays said:


> Pretty sure I read yesterday that more people have now died as a result of the corona virus than from SARS, so I won't pay too much attention to your ill informed nonsense



More confirmed to be infected, not died.


----------



## andysays (Jan 31, 2020)

Combustible said:


> More confirmed to be infected, not died.


Thanks for the correction


----------



## weltweit (Jan 31, 2020)

I suppose it could emerge anywhere. It existed in December, travel was unrestricted and some people could have had it and thought they only had a mild flu, in that time it could have travelled far and wide.

We know people can be infectious for 14 days before they show symptoms, but for how long overall can they be infectious? Presumably while they have the flu like symptoms they are still infectious, what about after that?


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Aha I hadn't heard anything about this hotel in York. Hopefully they will be tracing anyone this couple came into contact with.



Sounds like some staff at the hotel committed one of the big sins in the field of public health communication:



> Outside the hotel, two guests told the Guardian that as recently as Friday morning they had been told by reception staff the reports that two tourists had been taken ill from their apartment on Wednesday were “lies”.
> 
> “This morning they said it was a lie and not to listen to it,” said Andy Neale, 21, who is staying at StayCity for the night with his girlfriend. “It’s not ideal. They should’ve taken some precaution.”





> A family who were staying in the hotel on a visit from Asia to see their daughter, who is a student in York, said they had been told the cases were “false information” when they asked staff if reports were true.





> Helen Papakosta, 15, from Greece, showed reporters a video she had taken on her phone of people in hazmat suits arriving at the hotel on Thursday morning – presumably to deep clean the suite where the affected guests had been staying.



From the Guardian live updates page at Coronavirus live updates: returning Britons arrive at Wirral for quarantine


----------



## weltweit (Jan 31, 2020)

Coronavirus: What it does to the body
					

What is it like to have the coronavirus, how will it affect you and how is it treated?



					www.bbc.co.uk
				





> Now, an account by medics on the front line of this epidemic, at the Jinyintan Hospital, in Wuhan, is starting to provide answers.


----------



## T & P (Jan 31, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Do they know how long the virus can live on surfaces?


Further to what elbows has said, it probably makes sense to carry a hand sanitiser on you and clean your hands regularly when out and about, especially if you commute by public transport or are likely to touch door handles, hand railings etc at public buildings. Masks are good to a degree but if you take it off when you arrive at work or back home and then touch your face before washing your hands the mask will have been for nothing.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 31, 2020)

tbh in the UK at the moment I wouldn't take any more precautions than washing my hands as often as I do at the moment. If there were a lot more cases here - it became widespread then perhaps think of more .. but so far we had two cases..


----------



## Throbbing Angel (Jan 31, 2020)

Ohh Wowcher you twats

Just had this as part of an offers email


----------



## Supine (Jan 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> That type of test has been around for over 2 decades, including commercially. I dont know how long Roches version of the equipment has been around but its not new by any means.



Well that's kind of obvious isn't it. It's the setup to detect this particular virus in a couple of hours that's the key here. The existing test methods in China are overloaded hence the emergency development and shipment of new equipment.


----------



## T & P (Jan 31, 2020)

I wonder what precautions were taken or could have been taken to protect the pilots and flight crew on the flights ferrying Europeans back from China. Are air filters on planes guaranteed to remove pathogens from the air?


----------



## maomao (Jan 31, 2020)

Count Cuckula said:


> I’ve seen BSE, Ebola, SARS, swine flu and bird flu come and go in my lifetime alone. The corona virus will amount to even less.


SARS and BSE killed hundreds. Bird flu and Ebola tens of thousands and swine flu hundreds of thousands. They've destroyed lives and communities. You just haven't caught any of them yet.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 31, 2020)




----------



## Cid (Jan 31, 2020)

Out of curiosity had a look on Amazon and a few other places for masks. Seem quite thin on the ground. Appear to be loads of sellers on ebay mind you.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 31, 2020)

The news is saying reductions in the US and UK stock markets are due to nervousness about the virus affecting Chinese production.


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

Supine said:


> Well that's kind of obvious isn't it. It's the setup to detect this particular virus in a couple of hours that's the key here. The existing test methods in China are overloaded hence the emergency development and shipment of new equipment.



There isnt much I am treating as obvious on this thread. And I certainly wont be assuming that there is new equipment involved in this (extra quantities of equipment yes, new models of equipment no). How long this sort of test with this sort of equipment takes to perform is not new either. Its good to know when providers can quickly offer more capacity to those that need it, and I'm not trying to downplay the usefulness of additional capacity. 

But this stuff is the business press, journalism by press release, its advertising and marketing, its spin. There will be little nuggets of interesting reality in there but I have to go out of my way to learn stuff about the broader subject in order to even begin to differentiate between what is actually new and improved, and what is just hype. And I'm not going to get it all right, so I wont go down this track too often, rest assured.


----------



## elbows (Jan 31, 2020)

And sorry if my tone is snotty, there is too much actual snot in my life right now! Looking forward to a break from this subject over the weekend providing there are no major developments.


----------



## yield (Jan 31, 2020)

Cid said:


> Out of curiosity had a look on Amazon and a few other places for masks. Seem quite thin on the ground. Appear to be loads of sellers on ebay mind you.


Screwfix hasn't sold out


----------



## Supine (Feb 1, 2020)

elbows said:


> And sorry if my tone is snotty, there is too much actual snot in my life right now! Looking forward to a break from this subject over the weekend providing there are no major developments.



Your tone is snotty and I've worked in the industry for twenty years... But hey if your leet Google skills allow you to know more then great.


----------



## Cid (Feb 1, 2020)

yield said:


> Screwfix hasn't sold out



I think they have actually... The 'click and collect' option is there, but if you select a store it says not available. At least near me.


----------



## Callie (Feb 1, 2020)

Supine said:


> Your tone is snotty and I've worked in the industry for twenty years... But hey if your leet Google skills allow you to know more then great.


You work in molecular amplification assay production?

I'd be interested to know if/how international/national health centres (PHE/CDC/I dunno what other countries vwould be called!) share their hastily designed primers etc and how these perform on different platforms.

Any new PCR assay for novel viruses is going to be 'research use only' until it's suitability and effectiveness can be assured. It really kind of goes against the grain of medical laboratory testing to use an assay which is unapproved but in these situations you absolutely have to.

As much as I understand it health centres will have different extraction and amplification equipment place to place (maybe several models/versions available), you can develop as hoc novel assays for novel targets (ooh new Coronavirus) but in my mind you can then have many different assays on different equipment around the world where the assays have slightly different performance characteristics. Maybe? 

I wonder if that info is shared? How much access do commercial ventures have to the sequencing data for nCoV-2019 ? 

We've never done any molecular work in my lab as we're pretty small and more bacteria focussed but initially in these scenarios all testing is performed by the PHE. You could in theory test locally too if you had a suitable assay but PHE would still want a sample for epidemiological purposes.


----------



## Supine (Feb 1, 2020)

Pastuer institute 



			https://www.pasteur.fr/en/node/12699/draft


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 1, 2020)

Supine said:


> Pastuer institute
> 
> http://[URL='https://www.pasteur.fr...w.pasteur.fr/en/node/12699/draft[/URL[/COLOR]]


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2020)

Supine said:


> Your tone is snotty and I've worked in the industry for twenty years... But hey if your leet Google skills allow you to know more then great.



Shame your long experience didnt translate into any detail I could learn from. What was inaccurate about what I said?


----------



## Callie (Feb 1, 2020)

fishfinger said:


> View attachment 197298


l33t googling skills ?


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2020)

It may not seem like it when I am in full flow, but I am always ready and willing to be taken down a peg or two, and there was nothing worse for me than threads where I was the only one left gibbering on about detail, without anyone to spot my mistakes and correct them. Because I know I will make mistakes, and a lot of what I have learnt is from those with the knowledge generously sharing it and discussing it very publicly for the benefit of all. 

So its detail that can put me in my place, and I am sorry that I trod on your toes but I just didnt get that detail from you.


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 1, 2020)

Callie said:


> l33t googling skills ?


Does the link work for you?


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2020)

Callie said:


> Any new PCR assay for novel viruses is going to be 'research use only' until it's suitability and effectiveness can be assured. It really kind of goes against the grain of medical laboratory testing to use an assay which is unapproved but in these situations you absolutely have to.



Yeah the 'research only, not for clinical diagnosis' stuff has somewhat gone out the window for now!



> As much as I understand it health centres will have different extraction and amplification equipment place to place (maybe several models/versions available), you can develop as hoc novel assays for novel targets (ooh new Coronavirus) but in my mind you can then have many different assays on different equipment around the world where the assays have slightly different performance characteristics. Maybe?



This area interests me too and I'm sorry if I've ben rude about it, but I thrive on detail and I have to be able to try to separate commercial press release boasts from actual progress, whether that progress be some innovation or just an increase in capacity. I would like to learn more, and test my assumptions, thats all.



> How much access do commercial ventures have to the sequencing data for nCoV-2019 ?



There seems to be a lot of completely open sharing of sequencing data for this coronavirus. eg on GISAID. This is one area I've seen lots of experts being happy about, including the timeliness of the data being made available, and new sequences being added all the time.

There may be additional clues in the 17th January WHO Laboratory testing for 2019-nCoV interin guidance, eg:



> Working directly from sequence information, the team developed a series of genetic amplification (PCR) assays used by laboratories associated with the China CDC to detect several dozen cases as of today.





> Full genome sequence data from the viruses have been shared officially with WHO and on the GISAID platform (GISAID - Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data) and can inform the development of specific diagnostic tests for this emergent coronavirus. It is expected that validated PCR tests will become available soon. Until that time, the goals of diagnostic testing are to detect conventional causes of pneumonia early, to support disease control activities, and to work with reference laboratories that can perform pan coronavirus detection and directed sequencing.





			https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/20200117-interim-laboratory-guidance-version-final.pdf
		


So I suppose its the availability of validated PCR tests that I'm most interested in (and the above doc is a few weeks old now). I note the language that sort of tip-toes gently on the theme that in the meantime the non-validated tests will still be used on the front lines, but you need reference labs to do the final proper official confirmation.


----------



## Callie (Feb 1, 2020)

fishfinger said:


> Does the link work for you?


 no me neither.


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2020)

I found this paper on early work done on detection of 2019-nCoV by RT-PCR quite interesting too. 






						Eurosurveillance | Detection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCR
					

Background The ongoing outbreak of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) poses a challenge for public health laboratories as virus isolates are unavailable while there is growing evidence that the outbreak is more widespread than initially thought, and international spread through...




					www.eurosurveillance.org
				




By the way some Roche equipment was used for RNA extraction from clinical samples (their MagNA Pure 96 system)


----------



## Callie (Feb 1, 2020)

I think the scientific community understand the need to share data for the good of all. If this virus does end up circulating in the general population yer commercial companies can flog their assay to all and sundry but not sure how keen people will be to take on local testing initially. I think your standard local hospital labs may not always have the expertise or resource to take on assays where the onus of validation is on them whereas the centralised public health centres will have that expertise and more and they will have been through this before (SARS, MERS, swine flu). Hopefully there have been lessons learnt and procedures refined when it comes to managing novel pathogen outbreaks.

Pretty sure PHE also look at commercial assays to assist local labs to make informed choices re selection when possible


----------



## Supine (Feb 1, 2020)

This link should be better for you. Includes a picture too


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2020)

Also from the press release department, I found this article that is probably based on a press release from BGI/MGI Tech to be a bit more clearcut, probably because one of its main themes was getting emergency use approval from China's National Medical Products Association, and they are a bit clearer about the context of 'in a few hours time'.






						BGI Sequencer, Coronavirus Molecular Assays Granted Emergency Use Approval in China
					

The DNBSEQ-T7 ultra-high-throughput sequencer, metagenomic sequencing kit for coronaviruses, and 2019-nCoV RT-qPCR kit have received authorization from China's NMPA.




					www.360dx.com
				




How many different manufacturers work in this are anyway?


----------



## Callie (Feb 1, 2020)

I suppose the only advantage of having positive cases on home soil is access to actual samples of the virus!


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2020)

Callie said:


> I suppose the only advantage of having positive cases on home soil is access to actual samples of the virus!



Plus you get to prove that your detection system works (to some extent at least).

I wasnt overjoyed when the UK had no positive results, because various models suggested there should be some. So in one sense I am more reassured now that we've had a couple!


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 1, 2020)

Just updated*, confirmed cases now 11,955, of which 11, 818 are in China, 137 in 23 other countries. Death toll now 259, all in China. 

There was a professor on the TV news saying it's fairly safe to say, now we around two months into the outbreak, that the fatality rate is around 2%, compared to 10% with SARS, 37% with MERS, and 1% with flu. He went on to explain the majority of deaths have been in people with existing medical conditions, as with flu, and although sensible precautions should be taken, based on what we know so far, there's no need to panic.    

* Geographical distribution of 2019-nCov cases globally


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> There was a professor on the TV news saying it's fairly safe to say, now we around two months into the outbreak, that the fatality rate is around 2%, compared to 10% with SARS, 37% with MERS, and 1% with flu.



Whether its safe to say 2% depends on what people think that number means.

I was droning on about this yesterday. This article is very helpful in explaining:

       Clarity, Please, on the Coronavirus Statistics      



> Given these numbers, we can at least calculate the proportion of fatal cases, which, as mentioned above, is a somewhat cruder statistic that divides the total deaths by the total number of cases. As of now, the PFC can be calculated as about 2%—although it, like the CFR, will continue to fluctuate until the end of the outbreak, when the two figures will ultimately converge.



Taking all this detail into account, there is no way I would claim that the mortality rate is 2%, if it leads people to think that means that 2% of the people who catch this coronavirus will die. Mostly because there are people who show up in the confirmed infected stats who are currently still alive but wont survive, and because of the god knows how many milder cases there are that dont show up in the stats at all and can potentially make a huge difference to the overall mortality rate.


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Aha I hadn't heard anything about this hotel in York. Hopefully they will be tracing anyone this couple came into contact with.



Here is a tiny bit more detail for you:



> One of the two people to test positive for the new coronavirus in the UK is a student at the University of York.
> 
> The pair - who are related - were confirmed as having coronavirus after being taken ill at a hotel in York.
> 
> ...











						Coronavirus: UK patient is University of York student
					

The university says the risk of the infection being passed on to other people on campus is "low".



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Also in regards the question of how long coronavirus can survive on surfaces, that article mentions somethng about this, sourced from Public Health England:



> *Would the virus survive on a tissue?*
> Probably for 15 minutes, but it is unlikely to survive on surfaces, like door handles, for more than 24 hours.
> 
> Source: Public Health England



Sounds reasonable to me. I've previously mentioned timespans such as 'several days' and even 5 days maximum when the subject came up, but I was deliberately using a study that I assumed to be biased in the direction of making the problem seem as bad as possible. I'd rather deal in absolute worst-cases than the more moderate, realistic numbers, its good to have some wiggle room!


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2020)

By the way, if anyone bumps into hysterical articles going on about unnatural genetic sequences in the 2019-nCoV that resemble HIV, dont panic or buy into sinister theories. Due to the urgency of the situation a lot of papers are being shared in a 'pre-press' state, without any of the peer review stages having yet happened. And I believe there was one such research paper made available a couple of days ago that made claims about a bunch of short sequences in the 2019-nCoV, and how these sequences were somehow unepected, and could also be found in HIV-1. Well, this paper was then savaged by the experts I saw who read it and then commented online. Apparently those sequences can be found all over the place, and there are quite large estimates for how frequently we'd expect to find them occurring all over the place in the natural world by chance. The critics used data tools to find those same sequences in all sorts of other places unrelated to HIV, and I believe they even found them in a bat coronavirus. This rather punctured the bold claims made in the research paper. I dont have any links for this today, but if the bogus story gets sustained legs I'm sure I'll have reason to comment on it again and will provide more detail then.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 1, 2020)

elbows I keep wondering how many people must have the virus with minimal enough symptoms to not seek treatment, and as someone not versed in science, I did wonder why they don't take a random sample of seemingly well people and test them to find out. Just because they're so overwhelmed with cases anyway and lack resources? In an ideal world, would this be a feasible practice?


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> elbows I keep wondering how many people must have the virus with minimal enough symptoms to not seek treatment, and as someone not versed in science, I did wonder why they don't take a random sample of seemingly well people and test them to find out. Just because they're so overwhelmed with cases anyway and lack resources? In an ideal world, would this be a feasible practice?



Yeah, serologic tests where you are looking for antibodies that demonstrate that person has been infected in the past.

Its a well established technique because so many infectious diseases can have widespread aymptomatic or mild cases. For the scientific and medical communities to ever be able to see beyond 'the tip of the iceberg' (cases that will present themselves to healthcare systems) such things need to be done.

So mostly its a question of when, not if, and on what scale. I get the idea it often happens much later on, for practical and priority reasons and because its often done as part of general research efforts rather than initial stages of emergency infection control. But I also have a sense that its the sort of thing authorities would ideally want to dabble with quite early too, as even a little bit of data could help with assumptions, model tuning and early estimates. But practicalities might get in the way. I've got no real expectation as to when we will hear about this being done, or the results, with this current outbreak. China might already have started some efforts on this front, or maybe its still too early.


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2020)

Oh I should have explained why serology tests are favoured for that stuff, rather than the other sort of test(s) that they are already using on the suspected cases that present themselves to hospital etc.

Timing - the serology tests are looking for signs of past infection, so you wont miss the people that were infected but arent anymore. (although some ultimate time limits may still apply)

Capacity - the other forms of test are a finite resource that is best directed to suspected cases rather than using some of that capacity to test people that seem healthy.

Maybe other reasons too, eg if mild cases also limit the effectiveness of the non-serology tests, those tests may not end up being very good at getting positive results from certain mild cases, and such cases might have a better chance of being detected by serology tests.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 1, 2020)

Thank you, elbows for these interesting post, and all of your contributions to this thread.


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2020)

Cheers 

Now, this weekend off I promised myself, I better start that any minute now!

Perhaps I love this era of information too much. But its so much better than just having to take the word of arbitrary authorities, or a world where specialists are only scrutinised in limited formal ways, or where knowledge is hoarded by experts who dont have the time or inclination to share it, or where the detail and merits of points are considered secondary to the participants status and formal qualifications.


----------



## JimW (Feb 1, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Just updated*, confirmed cases now 11,955, of which 11, 818 are in China, 137 in 23 other countries. Death toll now 259, all in China.
> 
> There was a professor on the TV news saying it's fairly safe to say, now we around two months into the outbreak, that the fatality rate is around 2%, compared to 10% with SARS, 37% with MERS, and 1% with flu. He went on to explain the majority of deaths have been in people with existing medical conditions, as with flu, and although sensible precautions should be taken, based on what we know so far, there's no need to panic.
> 
> * Geographical distribution of 2019-nCov cases globally


Saw something here that profiled the deaths, apparently no-one under 30 has died, 30-50 less than 0.2% of ill have died, the overwhelming bulk of fatalities the elderly and those with underlying conditions. So again, no need to panic but take care of the vulnerable.


----------



## Rimbaud (Feb 1, 2020)

China reports H5N1 bird flu outbreak in Hunan province

Outbreak of avian flu reported in Hunan province, leading to a chicken cull. 

Could this year get any worse?

It isn't spreading to humans but hopefully it is contained. The swine flu last year led to the decimation of China's pig livestock and high pork prices, which have apparently gotten even worse due to the Coronavirus. If the price of chicken goes up due to an outbreak of bird flu as well, then it is really bad.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 1, 2020)

Hospital staff in Hong Kong are going on strike because the government refuses to close the border with the mainland.






						Error - RTHK
					






					news.rthk.hk


----------



## weltweit (Feb 1, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Hospital staff in Hong Kong are going on strike because the government refuses to close the border with the mainland.
> ..


I could have sworn I read somewhere that Hong Kong was going to close the border .. oh well


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 1, 2020)

Spent today in bed.
Freaking out a bit over this stuff.
I am literally terrified...because of the immunosuppression. 
It's not logical at all. I know. I realise only a small % died. But I am still panicked. 🙁


----------



## JimW (Feb 1, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Spent today in bed.
> Freaking out a bit over this stuff.
> I am literally terrified...because of the immunosuppression.
> It's not logical at all. I know. I realise only a small % died. But I am still panicked. 🙁


Not just you. Lots of the villages round here are on lockdown. I'm going to have to do a bit of an epic detour tomorrow to meet a man to buy organic veg outside the cordon


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 1, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I could have sworn I read somewhere that Hong Kong was going to close the border .. oh well



Boats and trains to the mainland have been halted, but flights are still coming in and 8 out of 14 border checkpoints for people arriving by land are still open.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 1, 2020)

JimW said:


> Not just you. Lots of the villages round here are on lockdown. I'm going to have to do a bit of an epic detour tomorrow to meet a man to buy organic veg outside the cordon




Yes...but I'm in Ireland. 
So its really daft for me to be worrying.

Hope you get your veg 😊


----------



## JimW (Feb 1, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Yes...but I'm in Ireland.
> So its really daft for me to be worrying.
> 
> Hope you get your veg 😊


Not daft but the risk really should be minimal. But given your higher risk doesn't hurt to take precautions.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 1, 2020)

JimW said:


> Not daft but the risk really should be minimal. But given your higher risk doesn't hurt to take precautions.



I'll be the only person in the village wearing mask and goggles. And my class will probably freak. 
😎😷


----------



## cyril_smear (Feb 1, 2020)

I did wonder why there were so many masks being worn in York today.


----------



## Supine (Feb 1, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Spent today in bed.
> Freaking out a bit over this stuff.
> I am literally terrified...because of the immunosuppression.
> It's not logical at all. I know. I realise only a small % died. But I am still panicked. 🙁



if it’s any help it looks like flu is still more of a threat and it’s one you are already used to living with.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 1, 2020)

Supine said:


> if it’s any help it looks like flu is still more of a threat and it’s one you are already used to living with.



I get the fluvaccine. I have had pneumonia 7 times and pleurisy 3 times. There is no "getting used" to being immunosuppressed...


----------



## weltweit (Feb 1, 2020)

Lupa said:


> I get the fluvaccine. I have had pneumonia 7 times and pleurisy 3 times. There is no "getting used" to being immunosuppressed...


That sounds like grounds for concern, certainly.


----------



## kropotkin (Feb 1, 2020)

My concern with this is that although the case fatality rate is clearly very low relative to more dangerous viruses, the absolute number of deaths and severe morbidity I'm expecting is very large. The high R0 (number of people infected by a case) means that if it gets beyond containment it could cause greater penetratiom of the population than influenza, and therefore more deaths.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 1, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> My concern with this is that although the case fatality rate is clearly very low relative to more dangerous viruses, the absolute number of deaths and severe morbidity I'm expecting is very large. The high R0 (number of people infected by a case) means that if it gets beyond containment it could cause greater penetratiom of the population than influenza, and therefore more deaths.


Hmm, it seems more people have been infected by this than were by SARS, while this is killing fewer people as a total and as a proportion of those infected. Small comfort though to the 213 people this has already killed.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 1, 2020)

An article trying to explain how many of the people of Wuhan are getting food delivered without the need to meet the delivery person face to face. Also that a lot of firms are asking their people to work from home. 

It must be harder and harder to get food now. 









						Wuhan lockdown: How people are still getting food
					

China's biggest food delivery firm is adapting its technology to help Wuhan's trapped residents.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## weltweit (Feb 1, 2020)

China is in trouble. A lot of people travelled to their family homes for the Chinese new year and now because of travel bans, they are unable to get back to work.

The disease is still virulent, and spreading, so I can't see China removing their travel restrictions. So far I believe they have just extended the Chinese new year holiday but it is unlikely that will be enough to restrict the virus.

For how long can they keep internal travel locked down? While they do it will restrict the virus but while they do, their companies can't get back to work. But if they remove the travel restrictions the virus will spread with the people.


----------



## Rimbaud (Feb 2, 2020)

Incidentally, dissent is starting to overflow on Weibo. Everyone staying at home and pissed off at the same time seems to be too much for the censors to keep a lid on.

This is without a doubt the biggest existential threat to the Communist Party of China since 1989.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 2, 2020)

More bad news this morning. 



> Authorities said 45 more deaths were recorded in Hubei province by the end of Saturday, bringing the death toll in the country to 304.
> 
> Nationally, there were 2,590 new confirmed infections. The total number of infections in China is now 14,380, state TV quoted the National Health Commission as saying.
> 
> Estimates by the University of Hong Kong suggest the total number of cases could be far higher than the official figures. More than 75,000 people may have been infected in the city of Wuhan, which is at the epicentre of the outbreak, experts say.



Also, first death outside of China, bringing the total to 305. 









						Coronavirus: First death outside China reported in Philippines
					

A 44-year-old Chinese man has died after travelling to the Philippines from the city of Wuhan.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 2, 2020)

There's an amazing live-stream of one of the new hospitals being built here:


----------



## MrSki (Feb 2, 2020)

If anyone is interested here is an email from the coach company used in transporting those repatriated last week & why the drivers were not wearing masks.



> An email I have received from Horseman Coaches please read.
> Dear Parents,
> During the past 24 hours you may have seen Horseman Coaches mentioned within the media helping to safely transport British citizens who have returned from China.
> I wanted to personally write to you to let you know that without doubt there is no risk to any of our staff or customers by helping individuals returning from China. I also wanted to assure you there will be no disruption or change to the usual service you receive from Horseman Coaches.
> ...


----------



## Rimbaud (Feb 2, 2020)

国际锐评｜疫情之下，数字经济的作用更加凸显

I don't believe that state media continuing to claim, as it is doing here, that the economy is still great thanks to the brilliant new shiny digital economy and wonders of 5G is really going to go down a storm when food prices are skyrocketing and many people are now struggling with basic essentials. People are already starting to tire of claims that the economy was booming when for the last year it clearly was not - anecdotally, cuts to bonuses and downsizing and failing businesses were everywhere, and despite the claim of a 6% growth rate, both imports and exports were in a decline (imports down 8.5%, exports down 3.2% on 2018) and it was being felt on the ground. Funny how every indicator external to China is showing a struggling economy, but their statistics continue to claim 6% growth. A booming economy does not have declining imports, exports and sales, a stagnant stock market with barely a third the value it had 3 years ago and rapidly mushrooming debt. Continuing to insist that everything is great and continuing to spread "positive energy" at this stage is going to start pissing people off.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 2, 2020)

MrSki said:


> If anyone is interested here is an email from the coach company used in transporting those repatriated last week & why the drivers were not wearing masks.




I still cant get over the Government chosing "horseman" coaches...😳🤣


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 2, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> 国际锐评｜疫情之下，数字经济的作用更加凸显
> 
> I don't believe that state media continuing to claim, as it is doing here, that the economy is still great thanks to the brilliant new shiny digital economy and wonders of 5G is really going to go down a storm when food prices are skyrocketing and many people are now struggling with basic essentials. People are already starting to tire of claims that the economy was booming when for the last year it clearly was not - anecdotally, cuts to bonuses and downsizing and failing businesses were everywhere, and despite the claim of a 6% growth rate, both imports and exports were in a decline (imports down 8.5%, exports down 3.2% on 2018) and it was being felt on the ground. Funny how every indicator external to China is showing a struggling economy, but their statistics continue to claim 6% growth. A booming economy does not have declining imports, exports and sales, a stagnant stock market with barely a third the value it had 3 years ago and rapidly mushrooming debt. Continuing to insist that everything is great and continuing to spread "positive energy" at this stage is going to start pissing people off.



Seems like the Chinese government is not, when you get right down to it, all that different from ours. The basic plan is still 'piss on their heads and tell them its raining'.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 2, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> This is without a doubt the biggest existential threat to the Communist Party of China since 1989.


I'm interested why you say this is the biggest existential threat to the communist party. Because it seems to me a democracy would have had severe problems restricting travel and closing cities which the Chinese communist party seems to have done with ease.

And the other thing is I can't see how rebellion against the communist party could take shape? Sure there might be dissent and muttering amongst the population but what mechanism is there for anyone to threaten the communist party?


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I'm interested why you say this is the biggest existential threat to the communist party. Because it seems to me a democracy would have had severe problems restricting travel and closing cities which the Chinese communist party seems to have done with ease.


My understanding is that the government here has sweeping emergency powers they can activate if necessary.  The question would be resources available to manage quarantined zones, etc.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 2, 2020)

Cid said:


> Out of curiosity had a look on Amazon and a few other places for masks. Seem quite thin on the ground. Appear to be loads of sellers on ebay mind you.



There’s loads under if you search under air pollution mask.

Wouldn’t get a black mask tho as you’d look like Antifa.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 2, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> My understanding is that the government here has sweeping emergency powers they can activate if necessary.  The question would be resources available to manage quarantined zones, etc.


Yes I'm sure the UK government could take the necessary steps if there was outbreak of a new virus here. And that is partly the point, surely the Chinese government have taken reasonable steps to prevent the spread of the virus?

I don't know if we would have the resources in Britain to respond properly. But the Chinese seemed to have them which is why I don't see that this is cause for rebellion against the communist party.

Has it been advantageous for the communist party to have this issue during the Chinese new year?  I think on balance it's probably much worse for them because of the mass travel that takes place in this holiday period. If it had happened at a normal point in the year the quarantines would have likely been less problematic for the people.


----------



## kropotkin (Feb 2, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> There’s loads under if you search under air pollution mask.
> 
> Wouldn’t get a black mask tho as you’d look like Antifa.


Yeah! Who'd want people to think they were opposed to fascism?


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 2, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> Yeah! Who'd want people to think they were opposed to fascism?



Sure they were being considered to be classified as a terrorist group.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 2, 2020)

All the cool kids wear black pollution/virus masks here in China and South Korea. I like to mix it up. Today I wore black, but sometimes a white one feels right. I wish they did the proper kind in more colors, the way they do with the fabric masks.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 2, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> All the cool kids wear black pollution/virus masks here in China and South Korea. I like to mix it up. Today I wore black, but sometimes a white one feels right. I wish they did the proper kind in more colors, the way they do with the fabric masks.



Ive seen some cool orange camo ones - very fash.


----------



## Supine (Feb 2, 2020)

For the data crew









						In times of paranoia, seek out data and stick to facts
					

Kaiser Fung (Principal Analytics Prep, Numbersense) urges people to stick to the facts as they assess the coronavirus public-health situation.



					junkcharts.typepad.com


----------



## Rimbaud (Feb 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I'm interested why you say this is the biggest existential threat to the communist party. Because it seems to me a democracy would have had severe problems restricting travel and closing cities which the Chinese communist party seems to have done with ease.
> 
> And the other thing is I can't see how rebellion against the communist party could take shape? Sure there might be dissent and muttering amongst the population but what mechanism is there for anyone to threaten the communist party?



A democracy wouldn't have had the outbreak in the first place. It is the auto-immune response of the fascist system - I use this word literally and precisely, not as hyperbole - presided over by the CCP to repress any bad news and downplay anything that could embarrass the leadership. This is happening at the same time as a swine flu outbreak which has caused shortages of pork, which also got out of control thanks to cover ups, and now we have a bird flu outbreak. This also raises the question of, why can the government be so mighty as to be able to monitor everyone's private conversations and purchases and rigidly control ideology and society, but despite all the political micromanaging they are unable to enforce basic health and safety and hygiene standards. Incidentally, this is also related to a lack of democracy and no independent laws - even if such laws exist (and they do AFAIK), laws in China aren't worth the paper they're written on and personal political connections decide everything. It is not possible for an employee  of a factory to report health and safety violations, as it is almost certain that the owner of the factory is better connected and can ensure that it is the employee who suffers for defamation and "picking quarrels and spreading rumours." Also, the concept of going to the police for help simply doesn't occur to most Chinese people because of the nature of political culture there.

Whether people recognise that is a different question however. I think a large number of people are recognising that censorship has gone too far, even Hu Xijin, editor of the radically nationalistic Party mouthpiece tabloid "Global Times" tweeted that there needs to be more tolerance towards alternative voices because of the Wuhan outbreak cover up.

This is why it is an existential crisis:

*1 - It is a national crisis, and the Internet police and state apparatus generally deal with local crises.*
The state is capable of managing localised crises by scapegoating local officials, arresting a few ringleaders and censoring reports of the unrest to create an illusion of harmony. However, this is a national crisis and the internet police seem to be overwhelmed. There is a lot more dissent getting out, and the idea I posted above (that censorship is to blame for this crisis) has entered national discourse. The fact that censorship really IS to blame seems to have caused confusion in the Party's response (see Hu Xijin's tweet), as people within the central government will also be attacking Xi for overly tight control of Internet, media, society and ideology. Furthermore, as it is a national crisis, any backlash will be nationwide, and not limited to a county or township as is more normal.

*2 - Destroys two pillars of legitimacy - the Party can deliver 1- economic success and 2- international prestige. *
The Party has for some time hinged its legitimacy to economic success. It has been clear for some time that economic hard times will be coming (thanks to a declining workforce and serious demographic problems caused by the long term effects of the one child policy, capital flight as wages rise, and a stressed over leveraged financial system, not to mention severe environmental problems), and this is why there has been an attempt to shift in recent years towards emphasising "national strength" as a source of legitimacy.

The economy has been bad for a while, but this crisis is confirmation and the economy is probably not going to recover anytime soon. China's rise has been over for a while, but it has concealed this by throwing money it doesn't have at big international prestige projects like the Silk Road Initiative (which is also starting to backfire), 5G, and generally throwing its weight around. That countries are now closing their borders to Chinese people and a disease from China has created a global crisis is a huge loss of face. The crisis has not only finished off economic performance as a source of legitimacy, but also international prestige which was being prepared as a reserve. Also, important to bear in mind that state propaganda for the last few years has been emphasising how 乱disorderly foreign countries are in contrast to a stable and harmonious China. That illusion is totally destroyed now.

* 3 - Causing political divisions within the Party. * Xi's anti-corruption drive has been chiefly aimed at his opponents connected to Jiang Zemin as well as Bo Xilai and Zhou Yongkang. In the process he has made many enemies. Xi's failures in his second term are mounting with each month, and I had initially been expecting a coup against him around 2022 when he would begin a third term after HK proved him to be a failure, but given how fast things are deteriorating, he may not even last 2020. Bear in mind that the 2 previous serious existential threats to the Communist Party - the 1989 democracy movement and the cultural revolution - were both the products of political divisions at the top. (General Secretary of the Communist Party, Zhao Ziyang, came out to support the students in 1989, and the protests started to commemorate the death of Hu Yaobang, a liberal former General Secretary of the CCP.)

* 4- The status quo is over and will not return. *  A key goal of the trade war with the US was to move supply chains out of China. The Chinese government has already mishandled this by retaliating against foreign companies in China and promoting nationalistic propaganda which has only accelerated the exit of foreign investment, but this crisis is going to massively accelerate the shift of supply chains to South East Asia and India, as foreigners evacuate the country and many won't return. On top of that, Xi's aggressive foreign policy was successful in the short term, but Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia in particular are starting to stand up to China in the South China Sea - in addition to growing confidence from ASEAN nations, we are also seeing a shift of the economic centre of gravity away from China and to ASEAN and India, which will be accelerated by this crisis. Also, India and Japan are working together to counter Chinese influence in Africa and Asia with their own "Asia Africa Growth Corridor" to rival the Silk Road. In light of these factors, the crisis spells the end of Xi Jinping's geopolitical project. 

China's dream of "National Rejuvenation" (I.e. hegemony in Asia) has been scuppered. The confident jingoism of the 2010s is over, and now people are going to ask questions. Make no mistake, this is a tipping point in Chinese people's faith in their government.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 2, 2020)

Hi Rimbaud, just to deal with your very first point, you say a democracy wouldn't have had the outbreak in the first place, I don't follow that argument surely a virus can jump the species barrier in any country?


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 2, 2020)

As someone who has worked in the construction industry for over 20 years, I’m lost in admiration of the achievement this represents:

A 1000 bed hospital constructed in 10 days is truly mind boggling, even given the fact they clearly just skipped the design phase completely and built it off plan, repeating one they’d already built elsewhere. This will not have been possible without considerable cost to the construction workers and whole supply chain - probably a fair number of unreported deaths and injuries onsite as health and safety will have gone out the window, but nevertheless a mind boggling accomplishment compared to normal accelerated timescales.

I wonder how many new cases have emerged in those ten days and whether even building hospitals in ten days will be enough to stay ahead of this outbreak?


----------



## Rimbaud (Feb 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hi Rimbaud, just to deal with your very first point, you say a democracy wouldn't have had the outbreak in the first place, I don't follow that argument surely a virus can jump the species barrier in any country?



It can in any country in theory, sure, but the conditions that increase the likelihood of it happening don't exist in most democracies.

Apart from arresting people who reporting it for "spreading rumours" and telling people that everything was fine until it was already too late to stop the spread, the sort of civil society that would warn about the dangers of these wet markets doesn't exist in China. There are no health NGOs and there is no way to promote discussion and awareness of it outside of official channels without risking causing trouble for yourself. Also, for the reasons I've said above, health and safety regulations, which do actually exist, are generally not enforced in China or are enforced arbitrarily, and the legal system is not fit for purpose so it isn't realistic to report abuses.

It's not just bad luck that these things happen so often in China. They are totally predictable and preventable (or at least, the risk can be massively reduced) but it is not a priority for a state apparatus which doesn't like criticism and prioritises centrally set goals like GDP to win promotion for officials, and there is no element in society outside of officialdom that can raise awareness or create public pressure.

A quick Google found an outbreak originating in a wet market was predicted in a Netflix documentary a year ago, and I've heard the risk of it discussed many, many times over the years.









						Bill Gates predicted coronavirus-type pandemic in Netflix documentary
					

He warned last year that a virus could start in China.




					metro.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Feb 2, 2020)

Supine said:


> For the data crew
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yeah good stuff. One of the reasons people find it harder to stick to the facts at this stage is that there arent enough facts. So what facts there are tend to get stretched beyond the limits of what they really demonstrate.

Its no surprise that people want to get a sense of the mortality rate. None of the number being waved around in this area so far give me a true sense, so I have to be content to live with the uncertainty rather than fill in the blanks with info that isnt actually true!

Anyway I had a nice break yesterday and felt like returning to the subject briefly today. I'm going to have to put some effort in to keep my contributions to this thread down to a sensible frequency. A lot of the news doesnt really add anything new to the picture so hopefully I will pick more of the right targets for my attention in the weeks ahead.


----------



## elbows (Feb 2, 2020)

Rimbaud said:


> It can in any country in theory, sure, but the conditions that increase the likelihood of it happening don't exist in most democracies.



I think you are stretching this point way too far. There are aspects of the Chinese regime that you are quite right to highlight in this context, but you give other nations and democracy far too much credit.

I say that because I am in the UK where we have an inquiry into an infected blood scandal. A country where the instincts of government when mad cow disease had been discovered, was to have a minister feed a burger to his child on tv.


----------



## Rimbaud (Feb 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> I think you are stretching this point way too far. There are aspects of the Chinese regime that you are quite right to highlight in this context, but you give other nations and democracy far too much credit.
> 
> I say that because I am in the UK where we have an inquiry into an infected blood scandal. A country where the instincts of government when mad cow disease had been discovered, was to have a minister feed a burger to his child on tv.



Actually I don't think I'm stretching it at all.

Circa 2010, there was a nascent civil society in China. When I was studying in Beijing then, I used to sometimes hang out at a leftist bookstore in the University district called 乌有之乡 ("Utopia" is one translation) which held political meetings, movie screenings and discussions and so on. I also used to hang out at the Bookworm cafe, where there would often be talks about various political topics and where you could surprisingly buy books about sensitive topics in China. You used to meet a lot of people from western NGOs there, and there was recognition in official discourse that environmental NGOs had a role to play in managing pollution and so on. In Guangdong province under Wang Yang, there were experiments in allowing independent proto-trade unions as a way of providing services to the large numbers of migrant workers and of increasing wages as part of a shift towards a consumption led economy.

In 2012, around the same time that all Google services were totally banned and the internet started getting really bad, Utopia bookshop was shut down as part of a crackdown on supporters of Xi's leftist rival Bo Xilai, the biggest political purge since the Cultural Revolution. Likewise, when I last went to Bookworm in 2015 the selection of books was "harmonised" and it was a shadow of its former self, and it was finally shut down for good in 2019, with the reason given that the building was "unsafe" and it needed to be demolished.

The relatively open environment I describe 2010 as above is the sort of China I was very optimistic about and the sort of China which led to the documentary Under the Dome being made. The documentary was a smash hit and very widely viewed online when it was released in 2015, and it outlined the problems with enforcing environmental laws in China and called for the creation of some sort of public body for the general public to report environmental abuses to anonymously and for citizens to take action. It was praised by some parts of the government initially but after it became a sensation it was soon banned due to the fear of it causing collective action that could get out of hand - you can read more here Smash-hit Chinese pollution doc Under the Dome taken offline by government. One year later, the government passed the Foreign NGO law which basically crippled what remained of civil society. At the same time, lawyers and academics began to face heavier persecution and repression than at any point since 1989-1990.

The fact that we have a concrete example of somebody 5 years ago publicly calling for precisely the sort of measures (a public body to report violations of environmental laws to) that could have averted this disaster, and the response of the Xi Jinping government was to ban the documentary out of fear of empowering the public and to go in exactly the opposite direction, shows you what the problem we have here is. And that's even ignoring the fact they arrested people who reported the virus.

Look, I understand the instinct that many intelligent westerners have to point out that the west isn't perfect either, but in this particularly case that isn't an appropriate reaction. I actually kind of feel guilty for comforting Chinese people who expressed discontent with the state of censorship in China (during the time when China seemed to be moving in a positive direction) by saying how the media in the west isn't perfect either and talking about Murdoch or something, because this kind of common response from foreigners during that time has now been weaponised by the Xi government to tell people that the state of affairs in China is just the same as everywhere. It is not the same, and I feel like by drawing a false equivalence as a way of comforting Chinese people (or worse, selfishly making the discussion about my own government/society) I and the many foreigners who have done so have actually damaged China by legitimising the Xi regime and making it seem like there's nothing wrong with the sort of system that China is. At the time, it was generally assumed that China was moving towards a more open system, but now we know it is going in the opposite direction we absolutely should not be letting it off the hook in anyway.

In that video I posted earlier, the guy from Wuhan said that the best thing overseas Chinese can do is to spread the word and ensure that the government is held accountable for its mistakes. The damage control strategy of the Xi government now is to make a big flashy show of taking grandiose measures (e.g. the livestreamed hospital construction stunt, and some silly videos of the PLA looking heroic bringing medical supplies spammed all over Chinese social media) and getting the Wumao army to spam websites with praise about how impressive the measures China is taking are. We should not be suckered by this and let them wriggle out of being held accountable, to do so is a betrayal of all the Chinese people who wish for the same rights and securities that we take for granted - there is a very good chance that this failure could disgrace Xi's project and put China back on the path it seemed like it was on 10 years ago, and we shouldn't ruin that chance by talking about how the west isn't so great either and normalising the political situation in China.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 2, 2020)

Rimbaud I can't really discuss the finer points of Chinese politics with you not having even visited the country once nor having followed the current affairs or politics closely.

When you say an existential crisis and suggests the current leadership could be in peril, I can only assume you mean from attack from within the communist party? So a communist on communist coup?


----------



## Supine (Feb 2, 2020)

The genome in all its glory


----------



## Rimbaud (Feb 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Rimbaud I can't really discuss the finer points of Chinese politics with you not having even visited the country once nor having followed the current affairs or politics closely.
> 
> When you say an existential crisis and suggests the current leadership could be in peril, I can only assume you mean from attack from within the communist party? So a communist on communist coup?



That's hard to say exactly. 

The most plausible scenario is a reformist faction of the Party taking leadership of a mass movement emerging from civil unrest, or simply a reformist coup with no unrest accompanying it. I think at any rate that a coup against Xi is now all but inevitable, but the opacity of internal politics means its very hard to predict what would follow from that. I would like to think that Xi's vision has now been discredited and liberal voices will now have the upper hand, but it is hard to say for sure. 

Apparently, Vpns are working without interference at the moment, and some things have been mysteriously unblocked. Some people reading the tea leaves have taken this as a sign that someone within the state apparatus is wanting people to see how things really are to prepare the ground for a coup. But, this is just conjecture. We'll see soon enough if it's true I guess.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 2, 2020)

1.2tn yuan to be pumped into Chinese markets to fight coronavirus slump
					

China’s central bank also announces support for hospitals at frontline of battle against outbreak




					www.theguardian.com
				





> 1.2tn yuan to be pumped into Chinese markets to fight coronavirus slump





> Under this “reverse repo” scheme, PBoC will purchase a range of securities from investors seeking ready cash, to avoid a wave of forced selling as investors return to work from the lunar new year break, which was extended after the coronavirus outbreak.
> 
> According to Reuters’ data, just over 1tn yuan of existing reverse repo contracts expire on Monday – the PBoC’s move will allow these to be rolled over, plus an extra 150bn yuan (£16bn) of fresh support.



I don't know what a "reverse repo" is .. but the government is going to add some support to the economy.


----------



## elbows (Feb 2, 2020)

Well I'm not going to argue about the politics further, I think we are just coming at it from two very different angles. And nothing I said is supposed to diminish the possible political ramifications, its just that I have trouble keeping quiet when something unique is said to have happened that I dont find unique at all. History is littered with grotesque failings in infectious disease control and the responses of authorities, and it should be possible for me to point this out without it in any way diminishing the magnitude of any such failings which have happened this time around.


----------



## donkyboy (Feb 2, 2020)

I've had the misfortune of ordering two products both of which are now delayed as product and components are from Wuhan. First one based in China the website says staff cannot go back till 10th February. other product is from Malaysian which gets is components from Wuhan. so something I paid over £400 for which was due to ship early April will probably be delayed longer now.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Feb 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> 1.2tn yuan to be pumped into Chinese markets to fight coronavirus slump
> 
> 
> China’s central bank also announces support for hospitals at frontline of battle against outbreak
> ...




its not calling in debts effectively- the chinese economy is spooked here and the relaince on ever increasing returns is the albatross in the room. or some such metpahor. its going to very tight wrt wages and shit for many citizens this month.this could be a trigger for a correction globally if you have been waiting for this. im not going to post up any wechat  derived rumours but the discontent ( as brought up earlier) is out there- whether is is being seen as an escape valve for the present situation or leads to more direct action remains to be seen.


----------



## extra dry (Feb 3, 2020)

A factory in northefn Thailand closed due to delays unable to get raw materials.

Thai hotels, chinese owned hotels and holiday resorts deserted due to no Chinese tourists.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 3, 2020)

The total number of people infected with the virus in China rose to 17,205 across the country, after 2,829 new cases were reported since yesterday, and deaths are now 361.  

Apparently the first of those new hospitals has started accepting patients, with the other due to open on Wednesday, and it looks like they could do with even more.



> Latest figures from China's National Health Commission on Monday revealed:
> 
> 
> 21,558 suspected cases of the virus
> ...


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 3, 2020)

A handful of more people confirmed in India all students from studying in China. If this gets loose on the subcontinent it will get out of hand v quickly.









						Kerala now confirms third case of novel coronavirus
					

A total of 1,999 people, who have a travel history from China and other affected countries, are under observation in Kerala,of whom 75 are in isolation wards of various hospitals.




					economictimes.indiatimes.com


----------



## Supine (Feb 3, 2020)

Haha, the topic of corona virus came up with my doctor as I'm going to Asia soon. Apparently advice they've received is to stand up and walk out of the room if they suspect a patient has it


----------



## Callie (Feb 3, 2020)

Supine said:


> Haha, the topic of corona virus came up with my doctor as I'm going to Asia soon. Apparently advice they've received is to stand up and walk out of the room if they suspect a patient has it


Self isolation! Wouldn't you just say you suspect all the patients and go home?


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

With all the news about travel bans and other restrictions, here are a couple of older papers looking at how effective travel restrictions seem to have been in relation to influenza.

A systematic review from 2014:






						WHO | Effectiveness of travel restrictions in the rapid containment of human influenza: a systematic review
					

article published in December 2014




					www.who.int
				




A 2011 study that looked at these issues in the context of the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic:









						Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
					

After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of...




					journals.plos.org
				




So not very effective then, with the suggestion that even if far more draconian measures were taken, you only buy a little more time.


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

And on a very much related note:











						Early evaluation of the Wuhan City travel restrictions in response to the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak
					

An ongoing outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was first reported in China and has spread worldwide. On January 23rd 2020 China shut down transit in and out of Wuhan, a major transport hub and conurbation of 11 million inhabitants, to contain the outbreak. By combining epidemiological...




					www.medrxiv.org


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 3, 2020)

Fascinating posts Rimbaud thanks for all that.


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

We are a fair bit further along in the 'its probably going to be a pandemic' phase of expert discourse. I suppose its been reasonable to say something like that for around 10 days, but its not the sort of thing most experts rush into saying at the very earliest opportunity, for good reason. As time goes on without a positive change to the picture, it starts to get said more explicitly.



> “It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.











						Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say (Published 2020)
					

Rapidly rising caseloads alarm researchers, who fear the virus may make its way across the globe. But scientists cannot yet predict how many deaths may result.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> We know people can be infectious for 14 days before they show symptoms, but for how long overall can they be infectious? Presumably while they have the flu like symptoms they are still infectious, what about after that?



It seems that in addition to concerns about asymptomatic cases possibly being able to spread it, the Germany cases also included a worryingly high amount of viral load in the sputum of a convalescent patient. 



> The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak. In this context, the detection of 2019-nCoV and a high sputum viral load in a convalescent patient (Patient 1) arouse concern about prolonged shedding of 2019-nCoV after recovery. Yet, the viability of 2019-nCoV detected on qRT-PCR in this patient remains to be proved by means of viral culture.





			https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468
		


More examples would need to be detected and studied in order to prove anything in this regard, so I wont jump to any conclusions.


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

The leaking in China of personal information of people with Wuhan travel history brings an added dimension of horror to this side of the story.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 3, 2020)

Sorry I haven’t been paying close enough attention to know, but has this link been posted?






						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com
				




Tracking confirmed cases and deaths by location. Has gone up by around 3000 since yesterday


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Sorry I haven’t been paying close enough attention to know, but has this link been posted?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It has been mentioned before but likely a while ago, so no harm in posting it again now!


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

Just trying to fill in a bit more historical info regarding serology tests that are used to eventually get a better sense of true level of infections, proportion of mild and asymptomatic cases etc.

2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza provides a bunch of excellent historical examples of the sort of study that is undertaken in this area. I had forgotten that UK boarding schools are an interesting source of data. Anyway here are a few examples which may help understanding what sort of work will be done at some stage in regards 2019-nCoV, if the spread becomes wide:









						Seroepidemiologic Study of Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 during Outbreak in Boarding School, England
					

We conducted a seroepidemiologic study during an outbreak of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a boarding school in England. Overall, 353 (17%) of students and staff completed a questionnaire and provided a serum sample. The attack rate was 40.5% and 34.1% for ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				











						Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in England: a cross-sectional serological study - PubMed
					

National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				











						Pre- and post-pandemic prevalence of antibodies to the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in Austrian adults - PubMed
					

Antibody prevalence to the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus was determined in a sample of the Austrian population to assess the post-pandemic seropositivity rate, the infection attack rate, and the proportion of subclinical infections during the 2009/2010 influenza pandemic in Austrian...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				




I expect there will be lots of other papers too but I dont think there is much point in me trying to list them all.

Online flu tracking surveys and specific keyword search volumes have also become an interesting and useful source of data in the last decade or so. This stuff seems to correlate fairly well with reality, and so is taken seriously and used in official monitoring reports. I dont know to what extent the signal to noise ratio of such things gets too poor at times like this though, where there is heightened media and public interest and concern about an emerging infection, at a time of year when there are plenty of other 'influenza-like illnesses' doing the rounds due to the season. If forced to guess I'd say such things would make it harder to spot smaller incidents of outbreak, but beyond a certain size such outbreaks would still show up in the data despite the noise (especially when our actual flu season is well past its peak as seems to be the case in the UK right now).


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 3, 2020)

Of course the more asymptomatic cases, or cases so mild as to be written off as an ordinary cold, the lower the true mortality rate will be relative to the known/reported mortality rate.

That's the good news. The bad news is for detection, containment etc.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 3, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> There's an amazing live-stream of one of the new hospitals being built here:



Pretty good progress. The welding seems to be done and now they are putting walls and roofs on.

Well right now it looks like they are having a tea break


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Pretty good progress. The welding seems to be done and now they are putting walls and roofs on.
> 
> Well right now it looks like they are having a tea break



It may not be fully complete, but patients are already being moved into the parts that are.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 3, 2020)

3rd confirmed case in India. All 3 were in China and so theres no secondary infections in India detected. Kerala has better than average health care...or at least it did some time ago. However, if it gets loose in India it may spread like wildfire.









						Indian state declares emergency after third confirmed coronavirus case
					

All three cases detected in students returning from the outbreak epicentre in Wuhan




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

BBCs version of 'its not a pandemic yet but we better start talking about that angle'.

Contains pretty much nothing of note, mostly posting it as a further sign of the moment we are at.









						Coronavirus: What is a pandemic and why use the term now?
					

The World Health Organization says coronavirus "can be characterised as a pandemic". What does that mean?



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

Sounds like the genetic sequences for the 2 cases in England have been shared on GISAID, adding to that pool of knowledge. 

Not that its a pool I can do anything with directly, I am obviously entirely reliant on expert interpretation of such data. And I wouldnt have any special epectation that any particular sequence will bring with it an interesting new angle to discuss. If the UK samples are like those from other recent sequences, the most obvious thing they will show is the entirely expected level of virus evolution compared to the early samples.


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

Oh yeah, I just checked and the England samples are shown on the GISAID Phylogeny tree:



			GISAID - Error 404
		


Again I am not fit to make the best use of this tool but I can still wave my mouse pointer over the tree and see numbers relating to divergence.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 3, 2020)

Quick summary for the less educated please?


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 3, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Quick summary for the less educated please?



The maths with the current data does not provide particularly useful predictions.

However, every 5 days the number with the virus doubles.

This coronavirus is killing people at several times the rate of seasonal flu. Experts are predicting the mortality will drop as the numbers add up.

Most people who have died are over 60. Or have preexisting immune or lung conditions.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 3, 2020)

So, if you have responsibility for others be aware of those that may be most impacted.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 3, 2020)

With the twats we have in charge, boasting of 500 beds for this virus is daft. It may be contained in the UK but it may not. I’ve heard from experts tonight that excellent work is being done in richer nations in doing this tracking.

Airport screening simply will not contain the virus but it will catch a few and is a good opportunity to raise awareness and provide further info in case of illness.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 3, 2020)

I attended a talk tonight by researchers currently working on this and they were explicitly coy about making predictions. To the point they repeated several times thats what they were not doing. However, the very first speaker covered the 2009 flu pandemic and how that panned out. This was a talk on specifically coronavirus. The stats from the 2009 pandemic showed a steady increase in cases from Jan ‘09 until the start of the following April where there was a huge spike in cases until it dropped off again with the same month. Will we see a huge spike in March? We dont know but i’m making small, quiet preparations.


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Quick summary for the less educated please?



To do quick justice, I'd need to know what angle you want. I'll assume personal risk angle, let me know if you want something else covered:

Everyone is waiting to see if it can be contained or whether it quickly spreads into a pandemic. A bunch of optimism well and truly faded I dunno, around 10 days or so ago, but I cant say how much longer we will have to wait to see if it becomes a pandemic. It will be defined as a pandemic if sustained spread is shown to be happening in many countries, as opposed to the current situation where cases detected in other countries so far have been sporadic and linked to travel from affected areas of China.

Even if it becomes another pandemic, in practical terms, it still has much in common with all the illnesses that are always out there and pose an extra risk seasonally. So most of the steps and reasonable precautions that people should always try to take in regards hygiene and minimising spread and personal risk will also apply to this virus. All the usual stuff about hand washing and coughs and sneezes, elbows and tissues, etc.

The actual mortality rate wont become clear for ages. And there will be a very large number of factors, many of which we dont understand properly, that will affect the diseases progression in different people. Just like flu and a bunch of other diseases, we will hear plenty of warning that people with various existing health issues may be more at risk of severe disease. But even when there is a great big dollop of truth to that, many people who are theoretically vulnerable will still actually be spared. And sometimes it turns out that the virus actually favours other groups far more and this side of things doesnt really turn out quite as conventional wisdom expects. I just heard about an example of that with this new coronavirus, but I havent been able to look into it properly yet.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 3, 2020)

426 now dead and nearly 20k infected.


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> The stats from the 2009 pandemic showed a steady increase in cases from Jan ‘09 until the start of the following April where there was a huge spike in cases until it dropped off again with the same month. Will we see a huge spike in March? We dont know but i’m making small, quiet preparations.



I dont think that is how I would characterise the shape of the 2009 pandemic over time, but it depends, do you have a link, was that a global figure or a particular country?

I wouldnt want to make a forecast for February, let alone March. Seasonal aspects are expected to feature, but sometimes novel infections dont respect seasonal boundaries so much initially - eg with flu in 2009 the UKs first big spread happened in July, with a peak towards the end of that month that was larger than the later peak at the end of October.

And an additional complication is that the nature of the data tends to change if the outbreak goes past a certain point. Eventually countries stop doing the sort of testing that they did at the start of the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, and are currently doing with this 2019 coronavirus. If this coronavirus becomes a pandemic then they wont be using lab testing resources to try to confirm every case they can any more, diagnosis will become more assumption based, with different methods for obtaining estimates, and different sorts of surveillance.

OK I will make one prediction for February, by the end of it I will have a much better idea of whether its a pandemic or not! If it is one then I dont think we have that long to wait to see further indications of this. But if spread within other countries should happen to remain rather limited by the end of the month, optimism might even start to return.


----------



## HAL9000 (Feb 3, 2020)

Jump to 3 minutes 20 seconds, information about how well the virus spreads and its fatality rate


Case fatality rate...

Ebola  50 - 60%

SARS  10 %

Coronavirus  2 to 3 %  (might be less if you include people who do not seek treatment)










						BBC World Service - More or Less, Coronavirus
					

Fact checking claims about the spread of Coronavirus




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Most people who have died are over 60. Or have preexisting immune or lung conditions.



Actually this is one of those areas I was referring to where conventional wisdom didnt necessarily match early findings with this disease.

For example in the study of the first 99 patients that was published in the Lancet, 51% were said to have an existing chronic illness, but only 1% had a chronic respiratory system disease.

However there are several reasons why I should wait for broader studies in this area and not read too much into the early cases alone. Especially since the vast majority of cases that have happened by now have been due to human-human spread not directly related to the market. But back in the days of this study, 49% of those patients had a direct exposure history with the market (mostly market workers, but also 2 customers). So they arent exactly a typical sample, and similar studies in different places at different times might give different impressions. I've not bumped into any others to compare to the Lancet 99 one yet.

(I suppose I should post a link to that study again even though we've had it before https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext )


----------



## JimW (Feb 4, 2020)

Latest UK travel advice is now to leave China if you're here: China travel advice I won't be.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 4, 2020)

elbows said:


> BBCs version of 'its not a pandemic yet but we better start talking about that angle'.
> 
> Contains pretty much nothing of note, mostly posting it as a further sign of the moment we are at.
> 
> ...



It's comforting that the BBC have ended that headline with a question mark.


----------



## maomao (Feb 4, 2020)

JimW said:


> Latest UK travel advice is now to leave China if you're here: China travel advice I won't be.


加油大哥


----------



## JimW (Feb 4, 2020)

maomao said:


> 加油大哥


There's been twelve recoveries to one death in Beijing so far so hoping that record will keep up.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 4, 2020)

Please translate


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 4, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Please translate



加油大哥  = Cheer up

* according to google.


----------



## JimW (Feb 4, 2020)

Yeah, "power to your elbow mate" sort of thing,


----------



## miss direct (Feb 4, 2020)

Are lots of people in the UK wearing masks? I flew on a domestic flight in Turkey and quite a lot of people were wearing them, which made no sense to me.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 4, 2020)

Good luck.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 4, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Are lots of people in the UK wearing masks? I flew on a domestic flight in Turkey and quite a lot of people were wearing them, which made no sense to me.


Only needs one Cassandra in a recycled closed air system and everyone is at risk.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 4, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Are lots of people in the UK wearing masks? I flew on a domestic flight in Turkey and quite a lot of people were wearing them, which made no sense to me.


I have a big box as pre existing condition. I wear them on the tube and on the bus and in the GP waiting room and at the hospital.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 4, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Are lots of people in the UK wearing masks? I flew on a domestic flight in Turkey and quite a lot of people were wearing them, which made no sense to me.



Haven't seen any, but I am in Worthing, I guess it could be different in big cities.


----------



## maomao (Feb 4, 2020)

JimW said:


> There's been twelve recoveries to one death in Beijing so far so hoping that record will keep up.


Reportedly odds are much better than that (for you not the virus).



miss direct said:


> Are lots of people in the UK wearing masks? I flew on a domestic flight in Turkey and quite a lot of people were wearing them, which made no sense to me.


Quite a lot of Chinese people (though not most by any means) wearing them in E14 area where I work. Not many on the trains, I've seen one or two. My family haven't experienced any corona virus related racism/panic yet but there are a lot of reports of it so my wife's a bit wary.


----------



## JimW (Feb 4, 2020)

I'm more concerned about getting caught up in the countermeasures at the minute, though you worry about the kids too obviously. We're out in the sticks in a place with only a handful of cases in the whole prefecture so odds are good but of course you never know.


----------



## elbows (Feb 4, 2020)

The report that lead to the 'Germany cases suggest asymptomatic transmission is possible' thing was not strong enough on its own to be proof of that, but now it turns out that the research had another flaw that really undermines this suggestion:



> “During her stay, she had been well with no sign or symptoms of infection but had become ill on her flight back to China,” the authors wrote. “The fact that asymptomatic persons are potential sources of 2019-nCoV infection may warrant a reassessment of transmission dynamics of the current outbreak.”





> But the researchers didn’t actually speak to the woman before they published the paper. The last author, Michael Hoelscher of the Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich Medical Center, says the paper relied on information from the four other patients: “They told us that the patient from China did not appear to have any symptoms.”





> Afterward, however, RKI and the Health and Food Safety Authority of the state of Bavaria did talk to the Shanghai patient on the phone, and it turned out she did have symptoms while in Germany. According to people familiar with the call, she felt tired, suffered from muscle pain, and took paracetamol, a fever-lowering medication. (An RKI spokesperson would only confirm to Science that the woman had symptoms.)








						Science | AAAS
					






					www.sciencemag.org


----------



## The39thStep (Feb 4, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Are lots of people in the UK wearing masks? I flew on a domestic flight in Turkey and quite a lot of people were wearing them, which made no sense to me.


Saw a load of Chinese student swearing masks at Manchester Piccadily station in January. Either they knew something about the virus and werent saying or knew something about pollution in Manchester


----------



## Cid (Feb 4, 2020)

Sheffield mask wearing level is about normal. I think our Chinese classes are proceeding as normal too. At least not heard anything to the contrary. Though most teachers stay here over new year anyway because money/visas. And to view other bits of the UK.


----------



## elbows (Feb 4, 2020)

Another drug with some theoretical potential to help, baricitinib. Further research will be required, including in the field with real 2019-nCoV patients.



			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30304-4/fulltext


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 4, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Are lots of people in the UK wearing masks? I flew on a domestic flight in Turkey and quite a lot of people were wearing them, which made no sense to me.



I've only seen a handful of masks so far. Did notice some SE Asian folks getting lots of nasty looks on the tube though. People are twats


----------



## Supine (Feb 4, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> I've only seen a handful of masks so far. Did notice some SE Asian folks getting lots of nasty looks on the tube though. People are twats



Yeah, I was taking to a Chinese friend yesterday. Apparently oriental looking people are getting a load of shit about this now


----------



## Virtual Blue (Feb 4, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> I've only seen a handful of masks so far. Did notice some SE Asian folks getting lots of nasty looks on the tube though. People are twats



Yep...! I get alot of looks just by coughing ffs!!
I would wear my 3M mask but don't want to be accused of being the Wuhan Bogeyman.


----------



## elbows (Feb 4, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> I've only seen a handful of masks so far. Did notice some SE Asian folks getting lots of nasty looks on the tube though. People are twats



One of the main upsides to me if this thing becomes widespread, is that hopefully the hideous shit we have seen from people and some countries towards certain groups will diminish, as the virus stops being associated one one region and nationality.

Speaking of this possible future picture, this article has a look at two possible scenarios for the future, if this coronavirus isnt contained. There are lots of interesting bits of detail, nothing brand new, but perhaps a combination of facts and their implications that people wont have come across before. Especially since it actually bothers to mention the other existing coronaviruses that are endemic already, rather than only dwelling on SARS and MERS.









						Experts envision two scenarios if the new coronavirus isn't contained
					

Researchers are asking what seems like a defeatist question but whose answer has huge implications for public policy: What will a world with endemic 2019-nCoV be like?




					www.statnews.com
				




I'm not sure as the article actually succeeds in its attempts to put these into two different scenarios. In my mind both scenarios have very much in common, which isnt really pointed out, and the aspects that could spell out the clear differences between the two scenarios are not laid out in a clear way. Because unless I've comprehended something wrong, both scenarios involve the coronavirus becoming endemic, with a strong seasonal aspect. The difference seems to be degree of disease severity, and the ways that disease severity and which groups are most vulnerable to it, affect human perceptions of the virus in question. Very much including how much we actually do about it rather than, as with some of those existing milder coronaviruses, filing it under some kind of 'mundane' category and mostly not bothering.


----------



## Sweet FA (Feb 4, 2020)

I've been avoiding the news generally since Christmas but I've recently had a peek and note with interest that we're all going to die of coronavirus.

Hold me, urban - is this true?

a) What's coronavirus?
b) Are we all going to die?  
c) Vegas with The Walking Dude or Boulder with Mother Abagail? 


Slightly more seriously: is this the old/sick/babies in danger? Why is everybody freaking out?


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 4, 2020)

Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more
					

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51171035  Bit scary, new virus which seems to have started in China seems very infectious and might be spreading.




					www.urban75.net
				




Loads of really good info.


----------



## Sweet FA (Feb 4, 2020)

25 pages - I've only got one question.


----------



## elbows (Feb 4, 2020)

I've been waiting for an article about this possible worldwide medical shortages angle. I dont know if this is the first article on the subject, but its the first one I've seen, having previously only become aware of the subject via some vague chatter on twitter.









						Amid Coronavirus Fears, a Mask Shortage Could Spread Globally
					

Most of the world's supply of masks and respirators comes from China, and a supply chain gap poses a risk to everyday health care beyond the viral epidemic.




					www.wired.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 4, 2020)

Coronaviruses are often known as 'the common cold', but occasionally new strains appear, like SARS-CoV (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) about 18 years ago, and MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome), and now this new one, designated as 2019-nCoV, which are more deadly.

2019-nCoV is not as deadly as SARS (approx 10% death rate), or MERS (approx. 36%), at present it's a death rate of around 2%, however it's spreading a lot faster. The flu has a death rate of around 1%, killing 250k - 500k+ people per year across the world.


----------



## IC3D (Feb 4, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> I've only seen a handful of masks so far. Did notice some SE Asian folks getting lots of nasty looks on the tube though. People are twats


Last night there was a clear gap on a packed tube train around a masked Chinese man. I sat next to him I was knacked. I did observe he wasn't coughing first I have to admit.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 4, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> I've only seen a handful of masks so far. Did notice some SE Asian folks getting lots of nasty looks on the tube though. People are twats



You in London at the mo?  In Nottingham at the moment people seem totally chilled and I've not seen anything of that nature.  Quite a lot of Chinese people in Beeston anyway, so makes sense that no one is batting an eyelid on the tram etc.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 4, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Coronaviruses are often known as 'the common cold'...



Well, some of the small number of variants commonly circulating in humans get lumped under 'colds' (which include several other families of viruses and a huge number of variants in some of those families).  

Good bit of context with death rates and the comparison with flu, there. 

Also, people do die from colds.


----------



## Supine (Feb 4, 2020)

There is a lot of chatter in the pharma trade press about potential for shortages of drugs and medical devices in the coming months. It's not just the manufacturers who need to keep supply up, it is their suppliers as well. 

Something I didn't know - it's estimated that 97% of antibiotics sold in the USA are sourced from China. I expect the global players will be ramping up production outside of China where possible.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 4, 2020)

8ball said:


> You in London at the mo?  In Nottingham at the moment people seem totally chilled and I've not seen anything of that nature.  Quite a lot of Chinese people in Beeston anyway, so makes sense that no one is batting an eyelid on the tram etc.



Mrs Frank lives in London, but I'm on the bus back up to to civilised world as we speak


----------



## blairsh (Feb 4, 2020)

Yes. We are all going to die


----------



## quimcunx (Feb 4, 2020)

If you are worried get a flu jab.  A flu jab will not do one single thing against the novel coronavirus but the chances of you coming into contact with novel coronavirus are pretty close to nil.  Your chances of contracting flu are higher but you can do something about that which will make you feel more in control of your destiny.


----------



## StoneRoad (Feb 4, 2020)

blairsh said:


> Yes. We are all going to die



Yep, but not straight away ...


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 4, 2020)

Sweet FA said:


> we're all going to die of coronavirus.


The asteroid* strike will get us first, so no need to worry about it.

* it'll be detected a day before it's due to hit I reckon.


----------



## Big Bertha (Feb 4, 2020)

Officially in hong hong.

so now... Hong Kong Fluey!


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 4, 2020)

JimW said:


> Latest UK travel advice is now to leave China if you're here: China travel advice I won't be.



Isn't that just going to result in a lot of potentially infected people making their way back to Britain via Hong Kong or third countries because they don't want to get stuck in quarantine?


----------



## elbows (Feb 4, 2020)

Its serious but people are waiting to see if it actually turns into a full pandemic or not. The expectation at this stage is that it probably will, but there is still a chance it wont.

If it does become a full pandemic then it is possible we will have several very different waves of human reaction to it. For example with the swine flu pandemic of 2009, the initial concern about how bad it would be and things like the mortality rate, sort of flipped into the opposite 'what was all the fuss about? this thing isnt too bad' sentiments from many quarters. That didnt stop at least one u75 forum member from losing their life to the swine flu, which, when combined with other news such as the singer from Broadcast also dying of swine flu, probably caused more people to then settle somewhere in between the previous two extremes of attitude to that virus.


----------



## Supine (Feb 4, 2020)

Mortality rate is 2-3%. The u75 population is less than 2% of the UK population so statistically we could all die from it. 

Although there are a fair few board members who stay home a lot so maybe we'll be safe.


----------



## elbows (Feb 4, 2020)

> *'I was sent racist abuse over the coronavirus'*
> DJ and writer Jex Wang says she was sent racist abuse after writing about the coronavirus.
> "When I first saw the virus, my first thought was with the people in Wuhan and what they're going through, because that's horrible," she told the BBC's Victoria Derbyshire.
> "Then my second thought was, 'I'm going to have to deal with more racism because of this now.'"


----------



## maomao (Feb 4, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Please translate


Chin up old chap.


----------



## elbows (Feb 4, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Isn't that just going to result in a lot of potentially infected people making their way back to Britain via Hong Kong or third countries because they don't want to get stuck in quarantine?



There are loads of potential problems with the UK advice, I see the Guardian live updates page has a whole bunch of quotes from unimpressed expats.

(all of these are from Coronavirus: UK advises British citizens to leave China – live updates )

eg:



> I have just read that the Foreign Office has advised us Brits to leave China, and that Professor Head thinks this move will be reassuring. I’d just like to assure the professor that this news is about as far from reassuring as possible.
> 
> For most expats, leaving China is not like cutting a holiday short. We have jobs, houses, pets and (most importantly of all) family here. I, and presumably hundreds or possibly thousands like me, have a child with a Chinese partner, which complicates matters even further as visa applications take months.
> 
> ...





> I’ve lived in China for the past 7 years ... and myself and fellow Brits have been left baffled by today’s announcement by Dominic Raab. It seemed such a generic blanket statement ...
> 
> How long should we go back for? What to do about our jobs (all of which have been very understanding and supportive giving us updates, free masks, advice etc). Why now? There seems to be no great spike in numbers compared to previous days, do they know something we don’t?
> 
> Unless there’s a good reason for this it doesn’t help with the general sense of paranoia at the moment and will add further worry to our friends and family back home.





> The announcement by Dominic Raab has certainly caused a stir, but feels particularly like something said as though in order to get excuses in early. The UK government was strongly criticised for its lamentable handling of the evacuations from Wuhan, and it’s announcement today feels a bit like “leave, because we won’t come and help you”.
> 
> For many of us this has put us in an impossible position. I’m gay, my partner is Chinese. We met in the UK and have been together many years, but we are not married. It would be very unlikely he’d be able to leave China with me – and I can’t exactly see our government handing out visas to partners and dependants.
> 
> It’s all a bit of a shocker really.



I'm not surprised one of them also had a go at Dr Head, given what the knob head was quoted as saying earlier on the same Guardian page:



> Dr Michael Head, senior research fellow in Global Health, University of Southampton, said:
> 
> 
> > “This move will probably be reassuring to UK citizens in China. There may be significant local uncertainty as to how much risk there is of being exposed to this new coronavirus, and so it seems reasonable to makes attempts to support their removal from the country, until the spread of cases within China has reduced.”



Maybe if there was a consistent rational message and actual steps to support their departure then I could start to agree, but as there isnt, what a load of arse.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 4, 2020)

elbows said:


> I've been waiting for an article about this possible worldwide medical shortages angle. I dont know if this is the first article on the subject, but its the first one I've seen, having previously only become aware of the subject via some vague chatter on twitter.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I was thinking this..as I was ordering masks. 
Made in China. 
Posted in Germany.
Came via UK.


----------



## elbows (Feb 4, 2020)

The just in time global village cannot sustain the sort of knee-jerk responses we have seen in recent weeks, whatever happens it will have to try to return to business as usual at some point not that far away. I suppose I happen to be talking about the same sort of length in time as it will also happen to take for the various draconian measures to be proven effective or not, so the timing of the two may well go hand in hand if a change of approach moment occurs.

I suppose given the increasingly dodgy global political climate we were already dealing with long before this coronavirus, business might not quite return to normal, distorted restrictions may end up further politicised and long-lasting when it comes to certain countries. But this may also depend on the timing of global spread - if there are big outbreaks in some countries well beyond China, leading quickly to pandemic status being declared, but the virus takes many months before it breaks out in some other countries, some ugly draconian measures may remain for some time.

I have no picture in mind of how much direct disruption the virus, as opposed to the human response to the virus, will cause to supply chains. When I go on about the current mortality rate stats not meaning much, all the other measures below the fatal are also obscure at the moment. eg I dont know the actual intensive care rate, the actual hospitalisation rate, the infection rate, or whether there will be many features that causes prolonged public (and officialdom and business) panic. And those could make a huge difference to how much the supply of things is affected over time. So for now all I've got is the obvious short-term shortages such as masks caused by huge spike in demand as much as supply problems, and a sense that there will be 'some' ongoing disruption for a while.


----------



## Badgers (Feb 4, 2020)

I hope we are all going to die but sadly this will pass


----------



## elbows (Feb 4, 2020)

I'm sure my opinion about possible transmission from asymptomatic cases has flip flopped around a bit, due to lack of quantity and quality of evidence, and variation in expert sentiment towards this possibility.

But when it comes to the idea of milder, more 'cold-like' manifestations of the illness still being infectious, I tended to put that one in the no shit sherlock category. But it still needs to be demonstrated, and something appears to have been announced in this regard:



> The growing number of cases of 2019-nCoV infection outside China, including in Germany, raises the issue of potential transmission from persons who have mild symptoms.
> 
> The Charité Institute of Virology as well as the Bundewehr Institute of Microbiology are supporting the diagnosis of 2019-nCoV infection since the first cases occurred in Germany. Both laboratories independently monitor virus shedding in patients currently under treatment in Munich Clinic Schwabing. During these studies it was found in several patients that infectious virus could be isolated from pharyngeal swabs in cell culture. These patients had symptoms of common cold rather than viral pneumonia. Concomintantly, both laboratories found signs of viral replication not only in the lung, but also in the pharynx and gut.
> 
> ...



(from the 2nd page of https://www.bundeswehr.de/resource/...a4fabe6e568738c2740/pressemitteilung-data.pdf )


----------



## Combustible (Feb 4, 2020)

elbows said:


> There are loads of potential problems with the UK advice, I see the Guardian live updates page has a whole bunch of quotes from unimpressed expats.



Quite it makes absolutely no sense, originally the BBC article said that the new advice was not based on there being an increased severity of the virus



> BBC China correspondent Robin Brant said the new advice was "not because we've seen a sudden increase in the severity of the outbreak of the virus".    Instead, he said it appeared to be prompted by the Foreign Office organising what it was calling "the last flight" to evacuate Wuhan.     The UK was also moving non-essential staff out from its embassy and consulates in China, so "there are fewer people who can help any Britons in distress", he said."


 
Why on earth the fact that the foreign office had organized the final evacuation from Wuhan means that British nationals should leave all the rest of China is not explained. Reduced consulate support is not good,  but again I hardly see why it merits the drastic step of leaving the country asap. And now Raab claims that people should leave in order to minimize the risk of exposure to the virus, despite the fact that the severity has apparently not increased.


----------



## elbows (Feb 4, 2020)

Let me fix that Raab claim:

People should leave now in order to minimise the risk that the government will be criticised for their woeful shrugging and indifference later on. 

Its the most low-rent, flimsy arse-covering exercise, utilising the minimum effort they think they can possibly get away with, which for this government is pretty close to no effort at all.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 4, 2020)

elbows I think China, or the authorities at least have a dilemma. If they want their economy and the JIT supply chains of the world to get back to normal they will have to end the extended New Year's holiday and let the people return to work, which will mean lifting the travel restrictions. This however will inevitably mean that the virus will spread through China and cause thousands more infections and hundreds or more deaths.

If on the other hand they decide their priority is to defeat the virus, they will have to retain significant travel restrictions, especially in Hubei which will mean China Inc will not get back to full strength for many months and could cause civil unrest.

eta of course only they know about how many cases they are experiencing further afield in China.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 4, 2020)

weltweit said:


> eta of course only they know about how many cases they are experiencing further afield in China.



Can't see a breakdown on the infection numbers, but on deaths, it does seem to still be mainly in Hubei, at least for now. 



> Of the 427 deaths reported, 426 have been reported from China: Hubei (414), Chongqing (2), Heilongjiang (2), Henan (2), Beijing (1), Hainan (1), Hebei (1), Hong Kong (1), Shanghai (1) and Sichuan (1).
> 
> One death has been reported from the Philippines.



SOURCE


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 4, 2020)

Sweet FA said:


> I've been avoiding the news generally since Christmas but I've recently had a peek and note with interest that we're all going to die of coronavirus.
> 
> Hold me, urban - is this true?
> 
> ...



Tinfoilers are blaming this new disease on 5G


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 4, 2020)

It's clearly not going to do much because they've given it a boring name.

Like new stars or exo planets, if viruses don't get a catchy nickname, you can quickly forget about them and move on once their 15 minutes of fame is up.

If they get a pronouncable acronym then you should start to worry.


----------



## 19sixtysix (Feb 4, 2020)

We are all going to die.






Sometime but in the meantime I'm hoping for nice couple of weeks quarantine when we're all asked to stay at home.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Feb 4, 2020)

It looks like they're starting to set up places to quarantine people in the US.  This is within a few miles of me. 



> UPDATE: Authorities have confirmed to Channel 8 Eyewitness News that 70 people will be brought for quarantine to Camp Ashland.
> 
> Ashland Fire Chief Mike Meyer said 70 EMS workers will also be brought in to monitor the people.
> 
> ...












						KLKN-TV - News, Weather and Sports for Lincoln, NE; KLKNTV.com
					

KLKNTV.com provides the lastest news, weather and sports for Lincoln, NE.




					www.klkntv.com
				




I'm a bit surprised that they have the space there.  Camp Ashland was devastated by the floods this spring.  Nearly every building was wiped out.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 4, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Tinfoilers are blaming this new disease on 5G


----------



## elbows (Feb 5, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> It's clearly not going to do much because they've given it a boring name.
> 
> Like new stars or exo planets, if viruses don't get a catchy nickname, you can quickly forget about them and move on once their 15 minutes of fame is up.
> 
> If they get a pronouncable acronym then you should start to worry.



That was just a temporary name. And the BBC have been told that the group who will name it are now close to announcing the name.









						How the new coronavirus will finally get a proper name
					

Scientists have told the BBC that after grappling behind closed doors they are close to an announcement.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




The new name might be rubbish too for all I know. If it is, I hope its at least enough to give peoples new ideas about what the informal name for it should end up being.

Still, I doubt it will end up being known as the bat cough that kicked off.


----------



## elbows (Feb 5, 2020)

Although taking the bat theme further, I suppose there is Nosfer-achoo.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 5, 2020)

Steven Westbury


----------



## editor (Feb 5, 2020)

*threads merged


----------



## spellbinder (Feb 5, 2020)

I'm waiting till some fucker dies of it in the uk before starting to decorate the landing
I couldn't buy a dust mask for love nor money in b&q earlier. Fucking hypochondriacs, what about my manky ceiling


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> The new name might be rubbish too for all I know. If it is, I hope its at least enough to give peoples new ideas about what the informal name for it should end up being.


Let's hope it suitably dramatic like 'Harbinger of Doom'.

May as well make the name catchy and memorable.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> That was just a temporary name. And the BBC have been told that the group who will name it are now close to announcing the name.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





farmerbarleymow said:


> Let's hope it suitably dramatic like 'Harbinger of Doom'.
> 
> May as well make the name catchy and memorable.


I propose Wet-market Originating Respiratory Misfire Syndrome, or WORMS, for short.


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 5, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> I propose Wet-market Originating Respiratory Misfire Syndrome, or WORMS, for short.


VIMTO virus - Virus In My Throat, Obviously.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 5, 2020)

The Chinese doctor who tried to warn others about coronavirus
					

When Li Wenliang warned about a Sars-like virus at his hospital in Wuhan, authorities tried to silence him.



					www.bbc.com
				



In early January, authorities in the Chinese city of Wuhan were trying to keep news of a new coronavirus under wraps. When one doctor tried to warn fellow medics about the outbreak, police paid him a visit and told him to stop. A month later he has been hailed as a hero, after he posted his story from a hospital bed.

Dr In his Weibo post he describes how on 10 January he started coughing, the next day he had a fever and two days later he was in hospital. His parents also fell ill and were taken to hospital.

It was 10 days later - on 20 January - that China declared the outbreak an emergency.

Dr Li says he was tested several times for coronavirus, all of them came back negative.

Image copyrightWEIBO
Image caption
Dr Li Wenliang was accused of spreading rumours
On 30 January he posted again: "Today nucleic acid testing came back with a positive result, the dust has settled, finally diagnosed."


This is frightening.  He was tested a number of times after being exposed to the virus. Finally he tested positive.  Does this mean people tested as negative might actually still develop the illness?


----------



## krtek a houby (Feb 5, 2020)

Noticed a lot more masks on the train into the city yesterday. We donned them as well, tight spaces and all that. Some of the 100yen shops are only allowing one pack per customer.


----------



## The39thStep (Feb 5, 2020)




----------



## Supine (Feb 5, 2020)

Material shortages are getting serious. I'd expect the big players like 3M to start shipping as much as they can ASAP. They did last time...


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 5, 2020)

My local hospital in north east China has issued a similar request on social media, Supine . I've tried several avenues in South Korea to get masks, but it doesn't look possible.  I'm really hoping other countries can start donations soon.


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 5, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> My local hospital in north east China has issued a similar request on social media, Supine . I've tried several avenues in South Korea to get masks, but it doesn't look possible.  I'm really hoping other countries can start donations soon.



Can we help?  Is post getting through?


----------



## T & P (Feb 5, 2020)

A massive cruise ship carrying 3,700 people has been quarantined in Japan after 10 passengers have tested positive... 









						Coronavirus: Ten passengers on cruise ship test positive for virus
					

Checks began after an 80-year-old passenger previously onboard was found to have the new virus.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




What now? Nuke it from orbit?


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 5, 2020)

Cruise ships do seem to be a perfect environment for viruses at the best of times.  Loads of people all cooped up together, lots of elderly people with multiple medical needs and weakened immune systems.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 5, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Can we help?  Is post getting through?



I believe that it is possible to get the masks sent to the hospital with coordination, but that's not the part we're having problems with. It's the bit where we can get a significant amount of N 95 rated or equivalent masks to send.  Korea is now limiting sale to 5 per person. I found someone who knew a wholesale mask supplier, but he's been instructed not to sell them for export. The hospital also needs goggles and medical gloves. I think the gloves might be easiest to come by as the general populations aren't panic-buying these so much.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 5, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Cruise ships do seem to be a perfect environment for viruses at the best of times.  Loads of people all cooped up together, lots of elderly people with multiple medical needs and weakened immune systems.



Also very easy to quarantine.


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 5, 2020)

Hmmm.  Thinking about it the chances of any packaging that's correctly labelled as masks actually getting to their intended recipient seems unlikely.


----------



## kalidarkone (Feb 5, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> My local hospital in north east China has issued a similar request on social media, Supine . I've tried several avenues in South Korea to get masks, but it doesn't look possible.  I'm really hoping other countries can start donations soon.


I can send you some masks! Pm me! (Like 20 )Although I'll have to check that they are the right spec. They are the ones used in theatres. I'll check when I'm in tonight.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 5, 2020)

kalidarkone said:


> I can send you some masks! Pm me! (Like 20 )Although I'll have to check that they are the right spec. They are the ones used in theatres. I'll check when I'm in tonight.



Thank you, that's so very kind. The type we're looking for are closer in appearance to dust masks, called repsirators. They have to have a particular rating to keep out virus particles. It's this particular type which are selling out across the world right now.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 5, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> It looks like they're starting to set up places to quarantine people in the US.  This is within a few miles of me.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Will the US effort building suitable accommodations compare to the Chinese building hospitals in two days?


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 5, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Will the US effort building suitable accommodations compare to the Chinese building hospitals in two days?



at best the most that can be expected is something like this


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 5, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Will the US effort building suitable accommodations compare to the Chinese building hospitals in two days?



Will it need to be?  

The epicenter of the outbreak is in China and the vast majority of the cases including those that have sadly perished are in China.  The Chinese response now is pretty impressive but has been pointed out on this thread (and admitted by the Chinese government) they massively fucked it up initially and they are building some impressive stable door long after the horse has bolted.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 5, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> View attachment 197634
> at best that most that can be expected is something like this


The standard US AID model.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Feb 5, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Will the US effort building suitable accommodations compare to the Chinese building hospitals in two days?



There's already 200 buildings out there.  While there was a lot of flood damage, I'm sure they'll find space somewhere.


----------



## Supine (Feb 5, 2020)

EMA has activated plans to fast track drug development and licensing:






						EMA to support development of vaccines and treatments for novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) - European Medicines Agency
					

EMA to support development of vaccines and treatments for novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19)




					www.ema.europa.eu


----------



## ice-is-forming (Feb 5, 2020)

Australia's been evacuating citizens from China, and sending them to stay on Christmas island, the off shore detention centre 









						Coronavirus: first group of Australian evacuees taken to Christmas Island
					

Charter flight carrying 72 people is first of four flights taking evacuees from WA to the island where they will be quarantined for two weeks




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Feb 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> That was just a temporary name. And the BBC have been told that the group who will name it are now close to announcing the name.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Captain Trips.


----------



## StoneRoad (Feb 5, 2020)

Another twist is that a couple of cruise ships/liners are now quarantined ...








						Coronavirus: Ten passengers on cruise ship test positive for virus
					

Checks began after an 80-year-old passenger previously onboard was found to have the new virus.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## skyscraper101 (Feb 5, 2020)

Full on mask hysteria


----------



## TopCat (Feb 5, 2020)

StoneRoad said:


> Another twist is that a couple of cruise ships/liners are now quarantined ...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Well assuming there are no animals on board we shall see pretty quick if human to human transmission is a thing. Poor sods.


----------



## elbows (Feb 5, 2020)

We already know that human to human transmission is a thing.

Animal to human transmission was likely only a feature of the very first stage of the outbreak, its all been human to human since then.


----------



## elbows (Feb 5, 2020)




----------



## 19sixtysix (Feb 5, 2020)

Supine said:


> EMA has activated plans to fast track drug development and licensing:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Shame that was moved to the netherlands and we're no longer in the EU.


----------



## elbows (Feb 5, 2020)

I mentioned poo once or twice before, but since I suspect this avenue often goes under the radar, here it is in a more direct context:



> China’s National Health Commission has expanded its diagnostic guidelines to help identify patients who have contracted the deadly new coronavirus.
> In an updated treatment plan released on Wednesday, the commission also warned that it was investigating whether aerosol and digestive tract infections were transmission modes after traces of the coronavirus were found in patients’ faeces.



Also note the new category for the even milder infections that they are now trying to acknowledge:



> It also expanded the classifications for coronavirus patients from three to four, adding a category for “light” cases.
> Those in the “light” category and who exhibit mild symptoms such as fever, fatigue, cough or breathing issues but no lung infection must be quarantined and treated to curb the spread of the disease





> “Some patients show mild symptoms but they are still infectious … that is why we have added the ‘light’ category in this edition of the guidelines,” Li Xingwang, from the commission’s expert panel, said.
> 
> “The number of suspected cases might increase because of this but if we can find these cases with atypical symptoms earlier, it will help control the spread of the virus.”











						China adds new symptoms to coronavirus diagnostic list
					

Health authorities also warn that discovery of virus in patients’ faeces suggest that it could be another source of transmission.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 5, 2020)

In Hong Kong, there's now a toilet paper shortage as well as a mask shortage - people emptied supermarket shelves after rumours spread that  toilet paper factories on the mainland were being repurposed to make masks.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 5, 2020)

Crazy


----------



## Cid (Feb 5, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> In Hong Kong, there's now a toilet paper shortage as well as a mask shortage - people emptied supermarket shelves after rumours spread that  toilet paper factories on the mainland were being repurposed to make masks.
> 
> View attachment 197665



Maybe everyone who stocked up for Brexit could donate theirs.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 5, 2020)

It seems China is going to continue with the travel restrictions, as is probably the only option open to them.

Off to see if I can find a link.

And Hong Kong to quarantine arrivals from China 








						Coronavirus: Hong Kong to quarantine visitors from mainland China
					

All arrivals, including foreigners, face 14 days of quarantine in the bid to halt a viral outbreak.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## not-bono-ever (Feb 5, 2020)

Three Coronvirus Carriers From Cambodia In Shenzhen ⋆ Cambodia News English
					

Phnom Penh: Three Chinese passengers who were on the same flight as Cambodia’s first patient with New Coronary Pneumonia confirmed




					cne.wtf
				




Cambodia may have a bit of an issue- large  amounts of PRC citizens go to the kingdon for gambling and girls/boys

Vietnam has sent out a text to its network users

"
1. Persons who have close contact with an infected / suspected person with nCov within 14 days must notify the local health facilities.
2. People in close contact with patients / suspected to have nCov disease must wear a mask and limit contact with others.
3. Currently there is an epidemic of nCov, people often wash their hands with soap, clean items with regular detergents; Wear a mask to public places, on transport.
4. Currently there is an epidemic of nCov, people do not travel to China and restrict to travel to other countries.
5. Regularly monitoring on the Ministry of Health Web Portal for timely updates, follow the instructions

Nationwide against nCov. Please comply with regulations and recommendations of the health sector. Do not distribute false information. Do not profit from disease. Encourage good work, condemn negative behavior. Vietnam is determined to win the pandemic! "


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 6, 2020)

“In those who survive intensive care, these aberrant and excessive immune responses lead to long-term lung damage and fibrosis, causing functional disability and reduced quality of life”
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30305-6/fulltext 

Fucking miserable update.


----------



## Callie (Feb 6, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> “In those who survive intensive care, these aberrant and excessive immune responses lead to long-term lung damage and fibrosis, causing functional disability and reduced quality of life”
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30305-6/fulltext
> 
> Fucking miserable update.


Is that specific to ncov or could that be said for anyone hospitalised and placed into intensive care for a respiratory infection?

Any numbers on how many ncov patients who require intensive care and survive? How many of those had underlying conditions?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 6, 2020)

73 deaths yesterday, highest daily total so far.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 6, 2020)

According to The Guardian and other sources, clinical trials of the antiviral Remdesivir will begin on patients in Wuhan today. This seems to me to be cautiously good news.

I am desperate for good news.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 6, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> According to The Guardian and other sources, clinical trials of the antiviral Remdesivir will begin on patients in Wuhan today. This seems to me to be cautiously good news.
> 
> I am desperate for good news.



* fingers crossed *

According to this link, scientists have found both Remdesivir and Chloroquine, which is used to treat malaria, to be an effective way to inhibit the coronavirus.  









						China lab seeks patent on use of Gilead's coronavirus treatment | SaltWire
					

By Zhang Yan and David Stanway BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - A state-run Chinese research institute has applied for a patent on the use of Gilead Sciences' ...




					www.theguardian.pe.ca


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 6, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> * fingers crossed *
> 
> According to this link, scientists have found both Remdesivir and Chloroquine, which is used to treat malaria, to be an effective way to inhibit the coronavirus.
> 
> ...



So some people will be given the placebo, and this trial could run until April. But what happens if the treatment _does_ work really well? Surely that could become obvious quite quickly? The guy in the US who was given the treatment on compassionate grounds recovered very rapidly once the drugs were administered. They won't just keep giving the placebo to loads of people and letting them die all through February and March, right?


----------



## Orang Utan (Feb 6, 2020)

Edgy atmosphere in the docs this morning - couple of people wearing facemasks, which I thought was just silly paranoia. It probably is, but the situation wasn't helped when a patient had a fit, vomited and lost consciousness right it front of me in the waiting room. Probs flu or something else, but I could see people looking agitated.


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 6, 2020)

Orang Utan said:


> Edgy atmosphere in the docs this morning - couple of people wearing facemasks, which I thought was just silly paranoia. It probably is, but the situation wasn't helped when a patient had a fit, vomited and lost consciousness right it front of me in the waiting room. Probs flu or something else, but I could see people looking agitated.



Time of the year innit.  I'm full of cold, my g/f is full or cold, my work colleagues are full of cold etc etc.


----------



## Orang Utan (Feb 6, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Time of the year innit.  I'm full of cold, my g/f is full or cold, my work colleagues are full of cold etc etc.


aye, but people will freak out all the same - we don't respond rationally to such things


----------



## Cid (Feb 6, 2020)

Orang Utan said:


> aye, but people will freak out all the same - we don't respond rationally to such things



People should probably be used to it by now, it’s not a new thing.


----------



## Orang Utan (Feb 6, 2020)

Cid said:


> People should probably be used to it by now, it’s not a new thing.


i don't think we'll ever 'get used to' anxiety about illness and death


----------



## Cid (Feb 6, 2020)

Orang Utan said:


> i don't think we'll ever 'get used to' anxiety about illness and death



No, but that’s clearly not what I meant. Masks this time of year are not a new thing.


----------



## Orang Utan (Feb 6, 2020)

Cid said:


> No, but that’s clearly not what I meant. Masks this time of year are not a new thing.


it wasn't that clear actually, but it is a new thing. i only saw it occasionally on the Tube in London but never elsewhere.


----------



## maomao (Feb 6, 2020)

Orang Utan said:


> Edgy atmosphere in the docs this morning - couple of people wearing facemasks, which I thought was just silly paranoia. It probably is, but the situation wasn't helped when a patient had a fit, vomited and lost consciousness right it front of me in the waiting room. Probs flu or something else, but I could see people looking agitated.


If it was 'stomach flu'/norovirus that's one of it's routes of transmission and is very efficient. Good luck.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 6, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> So some people will be given the placebo, and this trial could run until April. But what happens if the treatment _does_ work really well? Surely that could become obvious quite quickly? The guy in the US who was given the treatment on compassionate grounds recovered very rapidly once the drugs were administered. They won't just keep giving the placebo to loads of people and letting them die all through February and March, right?


If a treatment under trial is clearly very effective I'd expect the trial to be halted on ethical grounds.  The same presumably applies the other way round if a treatment is killing people.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 6, 2020)

Callie said:


> Is that specific to ncov or could that be said for anyone hospitalised and placed into intensive care for a respiratory infection?
> 
> Any numbers on how many ncov patients who require intensive care and survive? How many of those had underlying conditions?



It's specific to nCov2019, MERS and SARS.

Dr. Li Wenliang, one of the 8 doctors who sounded the alarm on 1st January and was arrested on 2nd January has died.

This is an interesting table of when the first cases of healthcare worker infection were recorded in establishments with more than 15 DNA confirmed cases :







Finally, cases show just how easily this virus can spread:

_In the first case of rapid transmission, a man in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, was infected with coronavirus after spending only 50 seconds with a confirmed patient at a hospital while neither of them were wearing masks, according to a report by Beijing Evening News.

In another case, a 56-year-old man in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, was infected with the virus after spending only 15 seconds with a confirmed patient at a local market stand. Both were also not wearing masks at the time.  

Both men have no history of living or traveling in the epidemic area within 14 days of the onset of the disease, did not have any contact with wild animals, and did not know any confirmed patients.

After checking surveillance videos that recorded the two patients' movements and collating their activities, the police discovered on Wednesday that the two men both had short contact with confirmed patients while not wearing masks, the first on January 22 and the other on January 23._


----------



## 8ball (Feb 6, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> If a treatment under trial is clearly very effective I'd expect the trial to be halted on ethical grounds.  The same presumably applies the other way round if a treatment is killing people.



Yep, this is bang on.  There are lots of trials that get stopped (ie. the regular ones you never hear of) that get terminated if early data reviews show it is unethical to continue to use a placebo (or, as is usually more common) a comparator drug for a proportion of the patients.

And yes, if something turns out horrifically toxic (or very obviously ineffective), the converse happens.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 6, 2020)

sihhi said:


> In another case, a 56-year-old man in Ningbo, Zhejiang Province, was infected with the virus after spending only 15 seconds with a confirmed patient at a local market stand. Both were also not wearing masks at the time.


If true that's remarkably efficient.


----------



## Chilli.s (Feb 6, 2020)

3rd uk case


----------



## maomao (Feb 6, 2020)

Would have thought the doctor would be young and fit enough to make it. Perhaps the sheer amount of the virus he was picking up made it worse. Poor sod. 

Third UK case was caught elsewhere in Asia. I have three colleagues off to Thailand over the next couple of months. Hope it doesn't go nuts there.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 6, 2020)

maomao said:


> Would have thought the doctor would be young and fit enough to make it. Perhaps the sheer amount of the virus he was picking up made it worse. Poor sod.



Perhaps the amount of high-grade polonium being pumped into his home water supply by the angry and embarassed authorities didn't help.


----------



## maomao (Feb 6, 2020)

8ball said:


> Perhaps the amount of high-grade polonium being pumped into his home water supply by the angry and embarassed authorities didn't help.


That's Russia. They just fucking shoot you in China.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 6, 2020)

maomao said:


> That's Russia. They just fucking shoot you in China.



Must admit, wasn't too sure about their methods, but in this particular case we know we are not dealing with unusually large, fast-moving viruses made of lead, so more creativity might be required.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 6, 2020)

Chilli.s said:


> 3rd uk case





> The third person in the UK to be diagnosed with coronavirus did not catch it in mainland China, England's chief medical officer has said.
> 
> The patient, who caught the infection elsewhere in Asia, was diagnosed in Brighton, it is understood.
> 
> Source BBC



That's a bit too close to me.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 6, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> That's a bit too close to me.



Tbf, that's a lot less scary than the third person catching it from an unknown source in the UK.


----------



## Chilli.s (Feb 6, 2020)

Stay at home don't go out.


----------



## Cid (Feb 6, 2020)

maomao said:


> Would have thought the doctor would be young and fit enough to make it. Perhaps the sheer amount of the virus he was picking up made it worse. Poor sod.
> 
> Third UK case was caught elsewhere in Asia. I have three colleagues off to Thailand over the next couple of months. Hope it doesn't go nuts there.



Yeah, 34 years old. Initial thought was perhaps it was more deadly when it kicked off, but that is probably wrong - iirc elbows etc mention it hasn't evolved much.

Also I do wonder about number of cases in places like Russian, India, various central Asian places. All have significant populations in China, but very few reported cases. Could be a number of reasons for that of course, but concern there that some have just gone unnoticed.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 6, 2020)

Cid said:


> Yeah, 34 years old. Initial thought was perhaps it was more deadly when it kicked off, but that is probably wrong - iirc elbows etc mention it hasn't evolved much.
> 
> Also I do wonder about number of cases in places like Russian, India, various central Asian places. All have significant populations in China, but very few reported cases. Could be a number of reasons for that of course, but concern there that some have just gone unnoticed.



I listened to Russian news all their deportees from Wuhan tested negative. Also most Russians in Heilongjiang and the north east.


----------



## Orang Utan (Feb 6, 2020)

Chilli.s said:


> Stay at home don't go out.


that's a bit alarmist unless you're elderly or immunocompromised. even then the risk is small


----------



## Chilli.s (Feb 6, 2020)

Orang Utan said:


> that's a bit alarmist unless you're elderly or immunocompromised. even then the risk is small


In truth it's not an actual sergestion, more a joke to lighten what could become a serious thing.


----------



## maomao (Feb 6, 2020)

Cid said:


> Yeah, 34 years old. Initial thought was perhaps it was more deadly when it kicked off, but that is probably wrong - iirc elbows etc mention it hasn't evolved much.


Viral load can have a big effect on severity of flu so maybe just being surrounded by it constantly for weeks did for him.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 6, 2020)

STAY INDOORS


----------



## Cid (Feb 6, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I listened to Russian news all their deportees from Wuhan tested negative. Also most Russians in Heilongjiang and the north east.



I mean Russian students and the like rather than the longer term minority groups... Really just a thought, as there were quite a few when I was in Nanjing.


----------



## maomao (Feb 6, 2020)

Cid said:


> I mean Russian students and the like rather than the longer term minority groups... Really just a thought, as there were quite a few when I was in Nanjing.


There's tonnes of Russians at most language learning schools. Only outnumbered by Japanese and Koreans.


----------



## elbows (Feb 6, 2020)

Cid said:


> Yeah, 34 years old. Initial thought was perhaps it was more deadly when it kicked off, but that is probably wrong - iirc elbows etc mention it hasn't evolved much.
> 
> Also I do wonder about number of cases in places like Russian, India, various central Asian places. All have significant populations in China, but very few reported cases. Could be a number of reasons for that of course, but concern there that some have just gone unnoticed.



There are various thoughts as to why the death rate in Wuhan is worse. But I am now tending to prefer the waiting game, because some of the patterns and differences could be down to the stage things (and early patients) have reached there but not reached in other places yet. Alternatively, I will not be surprised if nowhere else ends up with quite the same pattern of hospital admissions and deaths as Wuhan.

Mutations are a feature of this type of virus, and I think I have struggled to explain which bits of the mutation stories in the media I (and some virologists etc that I read the thoughts of on twitter) take issue with. I'll have another quick go.

I think it was when I was looking at H5N1 bird flu that I first became aware of the idea that a virus might start off in humans in a rather deadly form, and that this is not ideal for the virus, and for that and other reasons if it evolves to spread more in humans, it will also become less deadly at the same time.

Well, maybe things turn out that way sometimes. But its not some hard and fast rule, and there are some flaws to the logic that killing the host is always bad for the virus. The virus cares about replicating and spreading. And the relationship between having enough opportunities to spread and not being too severe or deadly to the host is not so simple either.

I also expect that this sort of explanation for the origin of an outbreak being more deadly than that seen in a subsequent wider spread, ends up covering for some of the other reasons, that for one reason or another are not of so much interest to the media. For example when it comes to the current estimates for mortality rate, even when some articles point out how flawed these numbers are at this stage, it wont stop those numbers being quoted and used in articles that do not point out their limitations. Later, if a very different death rate is observed elsewhere, it is easy to assume that this is down to some change that has happened to the virus. But in fact it might just be our perception of the viruses deadliness that has changed. Or the myriad of other factors that make a difference, such as peoples behaviour (which can have a real effect on transmissibility, and timely clinical presentation), alertness and readiness of medical services to respond, general health or susceptibility of the population varying in different places, etc.

A couple of tweets to illustrate one of my points in detail that I couldnt come out with using my own limited knowledge.


----------



## elbows (Feb 6, 2020)

Also the mutation stories, and expert willingness to provide such stories in the first place, are a much better fit with other sorts of outbreaks than this one.

The standard scenario for that sort of thing is that there is an outbreak of something that has not yet showed a good ability for sustained human to human transmission. So most of the cases got it directly from animals, or they were doctors and other healthcare workers with close contact to patients, and then a few other intermittent human to human cases, but no evidence of much broader human to human transmission.

Well, thats a pretty much perfect scene for the sort of mutation story I've been having a go at. Because we normally only notice these animal->human incidents in the first place when they happen to cause severe disease, so there is the 'disease starts off too horribly deadly to contemplate' bit. But human to human transmission is still weak, so thats the bit you worry might get much stronger via some future mutations. Chuck in the 'it will hopefully become less deadly at the same time it becomes more spreadable' and thats it, all the ingredients are available for the mutation story. Including context and a relationship with our hopes and fears for the future of the outbreak that seems to make sense.

Things like H5N1 bird flu (and some subsequent varieties), and SARS and MERS fit the above much better than this coronavirus has, and mutation came up as a reason why the world should care about those limited outbreaks and provide the funds and capabilities to deal with them. This coronavirus on the other hand already seems quite capable of human to human spread, so attempts to recycle that mutation story and blend it into this one doesnt quite work in the same way, the context isnt such a neat fit at all.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 6, 2020)

Does anyone know the state of the travel restrictions in China and neighbouring countries? 

I think I overheard that restrictions inside China are staying put for the time being, but that Hong Kong is still allowing visitors from the mainland on the promise that they quarantine themselves for 14 days. I must say that seems very trusting.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 6, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Does anyone know the state of the travel restrictions in China and neighbouring countries?
> 
> I think I overheard that restrictions inside China are staying put for the time being, but that Hong Kong is still allowing visitors from the mainland on the promise that they quarantine themselves for 14 days. I must say that seems very trusting.



BBC TV News is reporting panic buying in HK, due to rumours of the border about to be closed, because of the strike by medical workers & general public concerns.


----------



## elbows (Feb 6, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Dr. Li Wenliang, one of the 8 doctors who sounded the alarm on 1st January and was arrested on 2nd January has died.



There is now some confusion about this, as some reports on his death were removed and others issued instead which suggest he is not dead yet, but is in a terrible condition, that his heart did stop for a while recently, and they resorted to extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation treatment.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 6, 2020)

elbows said:


> There is now some confusion about this, as some reports on his death were removed and others issued instead which suggest he is not dead yet, but is in a terrible condition, that his heart did stop for a while recently, and they resorted to extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation treatment.



Fucking hell, this is worse than David Kelly.


----------



## elbows (Feb 6, 2020)

Cid said:


> Also I do wonder about number of cases in places like Russian, India, various central Asian places. All have significant populations in China, but very few reported cases. Could be a number of reasons for that of course, but concern there that some have just gone unnoticed.



Forgot to comment on this earlier because I got carried away with mutation.

There is a lot of concern that many African coutries, and plenty elsewhere, wont be able to cope with either the detection or subsequent possible phases of this. Steps are being taken to help, but even in countries considered to have advanced capabilities such as the UK, the expectation has always been that the detection rate will be nowhere close to 100%, we could easily miss as many or more than we detect.

Even if we remain for some time in a phase where the only large detected outbreaks are in China, the international picture is already starting to get come complex, as we start to see more cases that caught it while in a country that wasnt China. For example, it is being suggested that the 3rd case in the UK caught it in Singapore.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 6, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> BBC TV News is reporting panic buying in HK, due to rumours of the border about to be closed, because of the strike by medical workers & general public concerns.



Yep - it started with masks and disinfectant, then it was toilet paper, then rice, now it seems to be food and all kinds of other supplies, scary how fast something like this can snowball. People are spending a lot of time standing in queues in crowded shops wearing masks that don't really offer that much protection against the virus. The government says there are adequate supplies of things, but nobody believes anything they say after the events of the last 8 months.

Details on the quarantine for arrivals from the mainland haven't been finalised but it doesn't sound like it's going to be a very tight seal - Hong Kong residents will apparently be told to self-quarantine at home, others will apparently be told to stay in hotel rooms or quarantine facilities the government is trying to set up. Truck drivers from the mainland are also likely to be exempted, there'd be serious shortages of vegetables, etc. if they weren't.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 6, 2020)

elbows said:


> Forgot to comment on this earlier because I got carried away with mutation.
> 
> There is a lot of concern that many African coutries, and plenty elsewhere, wont be able to cope with either the detection or subsequent possible phases of this. Steps are being taken to help, but even in countries considered to have advanced capabilities such as the UK, the expectation has always been that the detection rate will be nowhere close to 100%, we could easily miss as many or more than we detect.



I was at a previously mentioned talk on this outbreak and the experts presenting, including a someone skyped in from Africa say many countired there markedly improved health system and emergency response to emerging infectious disease. This in part due to Ebola outbreaks that have needed to be dealt with.

My personal concern is with India. Often mind bogglingly densely populated, great wealth inequality and a health system that while not terrible is unlikely to cope with a minor outbreak well.


----------



## elbows (Feb 6, 2020)

The reporting confusion over whether the doctor had died now seems to have settled on him having passed away in recent hours.

Meanwhile as a result of more cases in certain countries, the UK government advice is now:



> “The UK chief medical officers are advising anyone who has travelled to the UK from mainland China, Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau in the last 14 days and is experiencing cough or fever or shortness of breath, to stay indoors and call NHS 111, even if symptoms are mild.
> 
> “These countries have been identified because of the volume of air travel from affected areas, understanding of other travel routes and number of reported cases. This list will be kept under review.”



Both of these are from todays Guardian live updates page on the coronavirus.  Coronavirus: first British national confirmed with disease 'travelled back from Singapore' – latest news


----------



## hegley (Feb 6, 2020)

Ethiopian Airlines still flying in and out of China, which isn't going down well.


----------



## Supine (Feb 6, 2020)

Long read here. 









						In Depth: How Wuhan lost the fight to contain the coronavirus
					

Radiologist: 'I've never seen a virus grow so quickly; the speed is stunning'




					asia.nikkei.com


----------



## agricola (Feb 6, 2020)

hegley said:


> Ethiopian Airlines still flying in and out of China, which isn't going down well.



surely they'd have to at least once during the flight?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 7, 2020)

Bit of a nightmare for the people on board the Diamond Princess. the numbers testing positive have tripled, to a total of 61.  









						Coronavirus: Dozens more catch virus on quarantined cruise ship
					

At least 61 people on board a ship quarantined off the coast of Japan have now tested positive.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 7, 2020)

elbows said:


> The reporting confusion over whether the doctor had died now seems to have settled on him having passed away in recent hours.



Yep - "There had been contradictory reports about his death, but the People's Daily now says he died at 02:58 on Friday (18:58 GMT Thursday). "

Such a shame the idiots didn't listen to his warning, back on the 30th December.  









						Li Wenliang: Coronavirus kills Chinese whistleblower doctor
					

Li Wenliang warned fellow medics in December - but police told him to stop "making false comments".



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Callie (Feb 7, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Bit of a nightmare for the people on board the Diamond Princess. the numbers testing positive have tripled, to a total of 61.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Widely recognised as a downside to testing, the more you test the more results you get. Schroedinger's virus.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 7, 2020)

Callie said:


> Widely recognised as a downside to testing, the more you test the more results you get. Schroedinger's virus.



There's still around 3,400 people on board who haven't been tested so who knows how many more they're going to find - that ship already has a higher number of confirmed coronavirus cases than any country except China.


----------



## Winot (Feb 7, 2020)

Winot said:


> Rail travel from HK to the mainland has been suspended so that’s the end of my Guangdong trip



BA now offering refunds on flights to Hong Kong so I may just ditch trip.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 7, 2020)

Callie said:


> Widely recognised as a downside to testing, the more you test the more results you get. Schroedinger's virus.



Of course, but for those on-board, the greater number of confirmed cases mean the greater chance of getting it.


----------



## elbows (Feb 7, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Yep - "There had been contradictory reports about his death, but the People's Daily now says he died at 02:58 on Friday (18:58 GMT Thursday). "
> 
> Such a shame the idiots didn't listen to his warning, back on the 30th December.
> 
> ...



The changing stories about his death were probably another sign of 'information management'.

Thats the thing about his whistleblowing too - it seems more likely to me that the situation was already known to central authorities at the time, so his whistleblowing was to alert the rest of the medical profession, who had been failed by these authorities. It wasnt a case of some people at some particular local level of bureaucracy being idiots and sitting on things/not recognising things, it was control and information suppression from the top, in the context of an outbreak they were already well aware of. After all, they told the WHO about the outbreak the very next day, which is rather quick if it was news to the Chinese authorities too. And the subsequent misleading picture given to the public for the first weeks of January also looks to me like information management from the top.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 7, 2020)

Remember when we used to call it 'lying'?


----------



## Supine (Feb 7, 2020)

8ball said:


> Remember when we used to call it 'lying'?



its now called politician speaking


----------



## elbows (Feb 7, 2020)

8ball said:


> Remember when we used to call it 'lying'?



I like to use the word propaganda a lot, but will also use the euphemisms of the day, with the idea that everyone knows what those weasel words really mean in this sort of context!

There are the slightly more subtle forms of this too, which I am used to seeing in WHO press releases. For example the confirmation of human to human spread tends to be considered a milestone, announcements about which are carefully managed. There was a period of approximately a week, where the January 20th confirmation of human to human transmission had not yet been made, but where the signs of it were looming large (thanks in great part to cases starting to show up overseas, which even in very small numbers helped estimate the picture in Wuhan). Language about 'no human to human transmission' started to be joined by extra words that introduced wiggle room and hinted at things to come, such as  'no severe', 'no sustained', 'limited' or 'no significant' human to human transmission.

The speed and scale of this outbreak limited the amount of time that this sort of censorship of the picture could be sustained, but it didnt stop them trying, and succeeding for limited periods.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 7, 2020)

elbows said:


> The changing stories about his death were probably another sign of 'information management'.
> 
> Thats the thing about his whistleblowing too - it seems more likely to me that the situation was already known to central authorities at the time, so his whistleblowing was to alert the rest of the medical profession, who had been failed by these authorities. It wasnt a case of some people at some particular local level of bureaucracy being idiots and sitting on things/not recognising things, it was control and information suppression from the top, in the context of an outbreak they were already well aware of. After all, they told the WHO about the outbreak the very next day, which is rather quick if it was news to the Chinese authorities too. And the subsequent misleading picture given to the public for the first weeks of January also looks to me like information management from the top.



'Something' was known to Wuhan authorities but Hubei authorities refused to make it known to central government for some considerable. But the assumption seemed to be market-human infection not human-human infection.

The Wechat post which got him investigated and warned by police was to Wuhan uni medicine alumni group, trying to encourage doctors in other hospitals in Wuhan to push people to effect barrier nursing.

Someone noted seems to fewer videos from hospitals in general because recording the situation has been leading to consequences in other parts of the country:

Here's one
Yunnan: 5 medical workers who secretly filmed and distributed epidemic prevention news have been detained or fined. 







The case of Chen QiuShi a citizen journalist in Wuhan who can't be contacted for 24 hours is also troubling but might be nothing. 

I know someone whose parents are in Wuhan (and haven't left home for 14 days now) and their general impression from reliable other Wuhaners' phone and Weixin contact is that the health system is much more overrun than media reports.


----------



## elbows (Feb 7, 2020)

sihhi said:


> 'Something' was known to Wuhan authorities but Hubei authorities refused to make it known to central government for some considerable. But the assumption seemed to be market-human infection not human-human infection.



Its also very convenient for central government censorship to be blamed on local government failing to share information. So I'm not going to assume that central government was unaware of what was going on, although it is possible depending on the system. Plus control freak authorities tend to like to have multiple other channels open to them so that they still find out whats going on even if some lower levels of bureaucracy and power are blocking things.

It is feasible that human to human transmission was not noticed in December, as even without political meddling there is always some lag. It is unlikely to have gone unnoticed in the healthcare environment once January got going. Plus even in December, some of the earliest cases described in initial clinical reports had no direct contact with the market, indicating at least some limited human to human transmission.

I dont have enough facts to reach firm conclusions, but rather just enough to keep my mind open to both possibilities (or a mix of both).


----------



## elbows (Feb 7, 2020)

The Pangolin is the latest possible intermediate host to be placed in the frame. Much more work needs to be done to establish whether it actually is the intermediate host in this case though.









						Scientists question work suggesting pangolin coronavirus link
					

Independent scientists questioned research on Friday that suggested that the outbreak of coronavirus disease spreading from China might have passed from bats to humans through the illegal traffic of pangolins.




					www.reuters.com
				




Given my previous moaning and groaning about corticosteroids, I was pleased to see this:



			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30317-2/fulltext
		




> Corticosteroids were widely used during the outbreaks of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)-CoV, and are being used in patients with 2019-nCoV in addition to other therapeutics.
> However, current interim guidance from WHO on clinical management of severe acute respiratory infection when novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection is suspected (released Jan 28, 2020) advises against the use of corticosteroids unless indicated for another reason.
> Understanding the evidence for harm or benefit from corticosteroids in 2019-nCoV is of immediate clinical importance. Here we discuss the clinical outcomes of corticosteroid use in coronavirus and similar outbreaks



Also there are some attempts to extract some optimism from the reduced number of new cases reported in the last few days from the worst affected region. A peak and decline would be expected there at some point, and we are also probably into the window where we would expect to start to see whether efforts to reduce transmission there have been successful. But the data could also be a sign of something else, such as hitting some testing capacity limits, so I will wait longer before forming a conclusion. Also, much of what will determine the future is really about the growth of the disease in other locations, so I'm not about to start dancing around as if we just dodged a bullet. Anyway I dont have a good article to hand about this decline yet, will post one later.


----------



## editor (Feb 7, 2020)

Not surprisingly, the virus is causing mayhem for touring musicians:



> Unfortunately, due to the Coronavirus we are being told shows in China in March have to be postponed, there can be no gigs at this time! Consequently we are going to have to reschedule all the other shows as a result because it totally fucks up our routing. As I’m sure you can imagine we’re all pretty bummed about that, have never played most of those places and how often do you get a chance to hit Australia?! Our manager and booker and the other folks that give birth to these logistical miracles are working through the night searching for solutions. Later this year hopefully. Onwards!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## 8ball (Feb 7, 2020)

Musicans AND Fat White Family!


----------



## TopCat (Feb 7, 2020)

editor said:


> Not surprisingly, the virus is causing mayhem for touring musicians:


Jesus fuck do you only have empathy with touring musicians?


----------



## Numbers (Feb 7, 2020)

That’s a bit harsh TC.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 7, 2020)

"Guys, we've now been informed that the continent of Australia is on fire and the venues we were supposed to play are now smoldering ruins. As you can imagine, we're all pretty bummed about this because it totally fucks up the routing for the Pacific islands leg of our tour, and how often do you get to hit Fiji?"


----------



## weltweit (Feb 7, 2020)

I see a report that Foxconn is going to start making masks.


> Foxconn aims to produce two million masks a day by the end of the month


 BBC


----------



## editor (Feb 7, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Jesus fuck do you only have empathy with touring musicians?


Oh wow.   
I have empathy with anyone affected by this virus because it's an awful thing, but that doesn't mean I can't have empathy for anyone losing potentially once in a lifetime opportunities as well. What the fuck is wrong with that, anyway?

It's not like I'm the only person here posting similar comments:. Funnily enough you ignored this one:








						Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more
					

Cool - I'm going to tell my employer I've been to Wuhan over the weekend and need several weeks off.  :thumbs:   For bonus points, ask them to bring some food round and then cough at them through the letterbox.  Meanwhile I've just seen that 33 environmental samples from the implicated Wuhan...




					www.urban75.net


----------



## Supine (Feb 7, 2020)

Phase 3 clinical studies have started. This must be close to a world record time, in my experience this takes 6 months plus to arrange.









						Experimental drug offers silver lining
					

Experts hope an experimental drug can be as effective against the novel coronavirus in people as it has been on cells in a controlled lab environment.




					www.chinadaily.com.cn


----------



## weltweit (Feb 8, 2020)

Looks like there are are some economic pressures starting to be felt.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51353501


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Looks like there are are some economic pressures starting to be felt.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51353501



For fucking iPhones!?


----------



## BristolEcho (Feb 8, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> "Guys, we've now been informed that the continent of Australia is on fire and the venues we were supposed to play are now smoldering ruins. As you can imagine, we're all pretty bummed about this because it totally fucks up the routing for the Pacific islands leg of our tour, and how often do you get to hit Fiji?"



Yeah this is basically the issue with it. We are bummed, our routing has been fucked up, and how often would we get to hit this other place. Us. Us. Us.


----------



## Jay Park (Feb 8, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Yep - it started with masks and disinfectant, then it was toilet paper, then rice, now it seems to be food and all kinds of other supplies, scary how fast something like this can snowball. People are spending a lot of time standing in queues in crowded shops wearing masks that don't really offer that much protection against the virus. The government says there are adequate supplies of things, but nobody believes anything they say after the events of the last 8 months.
> 
> Details on the quarantine for arrivals from the mainland haven't been finalised but it doesn't sound like it's going to be a very tight seal - Hong Kong residents will apparently be told to self-quarantine at home, others will apparently be told to stay in hotel rooms or quarantine facilities the government is trying to set up. Truck drivers from the mainland are also likely to be exempted, there'd be serious shortages of vegetables, etc. if they weren't.



Shortly after Jimmy Hoffa got Pacino’d in that boring arse film, the truck drivers are the ones we’re relying on.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Feb 8, 2020)

Just saying... But actually Aus is flooding now. All touring bands need to be able to swim...


----------



## mystic pyjamas (Feb 8, 2020)

It’s the roadies I feel sorry for.


----------



## bimble (Feb 8, 2020)

oh crap. just looked up where i'm flying to on Tuesday and found this.
Little bit freaked by the prospect of all the airport staff wearing face-masks because some local people have been infected.
Should i buy something to put on my face?  Coronavirus: Indore airport authorities distribute masks to security personnel, staff | Indore News - Times of India


----------



## krtek a houby (Feb 8, 2020)

bimble said:


> oh crap. just looked up where i'm flying to on Tuesday and found this.
> Little bit freaked by the prospect of all the airport staff wearing face-masks because some local people have bee infected.
> Should i buy something to put on my face?  Coronavirus: Indore airport authorities distribute masks to security personnel, staff | Indore News - Times of India



No harm in it. I don't know about India, but here in East Asia, it's commonplace to see staff and customers wearing face masks (at any time of the year, but particular in the flu season).


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 8, 2020)

China had its deadliest day, on Friday, with 82 deaths, taking the total to 722, including a US citizen, the first foreigner.  

Looks like the death rates will overtake that of SARS, 774 deaths, today. 

I hope these drug tests find an answer soon.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 8, 2020)

Is it too optimistic to suggest that the China line on this “confirmed cases” graph from the John Hopkins tracker page is flattening out, rather than accelerating upwards into a parabola?   I wonder how much faith we can put in these figures, or whether the flattening out reflects limits on the testing capacity available, rather than a levelling out of the rate of infection?


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 8, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I wonder how much faith we can put in these figures, or whether the flattening out reflects limits on the testing capacity available, rather than a levelling out of the rate of infection?



From Wuhan and the surrounding cities, there are reports of a massive shortage of testing kits and other equipment, health workers and facilities being completely overwhelmed, people being turned away from hospitals, people being unable to get to hospitals in the first place because transport has been shut down, people actively avoiding hospitals because they don't want to be sent to facilities full of thousands of sick people placed 1 meter apart - and even if the Chinese government was able to determine an accurate number of people infected, they cannot be relied upon to disclose it honestly.

So I don't think there's much of a relationship between the figures released by China and reality, I don't know what the true number of infections or deaths might be, but I doubt Beijing would give an overstated one.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 8, 2020)

I think there's still some missing information about the time period during which a carrier can infect others.

They have said that during the first 14 days during which a person is incubating the disease they may not have symptoms but they can infect other people. 

But what about after the first 14 days when perhaps the illness is more visible presumably they can infect others at that time too. And what about when the illness appears to have receded, are people still infectious then?


----------



## weltweit (Feb 8, 2020)

Does anyone have any up-to-date figures for infections etc? Last I heard there have been about 600 deaths but this may have been understating the figures. Still most fatalities have been in Hubei.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 8, 2020)

editor said:


> Not surprisingly, the virus is causing mayhem for touring musicians:



It's the band on that cruise ship I feel sorry for.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Does anyone have any up-to-date figures for infections etc? Last I heard there have been about 600 deaths but this may have been understating the figures. Still most fatalities have been in Hubei.



In China, confirmed cases over 34,500 & 722 deaths. 

One report was suggesting it's likely to be at least 150-200,000 cases now, but it's impossible to know, as labs can't keep up with the required testing.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 8, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> In China, confirmed cases over 34,500 & 722 deaths.
> ..


Where did you see those figures if you don't mind me asking?

On another matter I have read that Chinese medical staff in Hubei are expected to work 10 hour shifts with no no breaks for food or toilet which seems pretty extreme to me.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Where did you see those figures if you don't mind me asking?
> 
> On another matter I have read that Chinese medical staff in Hubei are expected to work 10 hour shifts with no no breaks for food or toilet which seems pretty extreme to me.



Sky News, on the telly box. Also see my post #879 - China had its deadliest day, on Friday, with 82 deaths, taking the total to 722, including a US citizen, the first foreigner. 

This was yesterday's figures, which will get updated later today...



> Since 31 December 2019 and as of 7 February 2020 8:00 CET, 31 503 laboratory-confirmed cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection have been reported, including 638 deaths.











						COVID-19 situation update worldwide
					

This update has been discontinued - please see the Weekly Country Overview report.




					www.ecdc.europa.eu


----------



## weltweit (Feb 8, 2020)

cupid_stunt interesting and those figures seem more up-to-date, the BBC website seems to have got confused with multiple articles most of which are few days old I haven't seen any recent articles for a while.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> cupid_stunt interesting and those figures to see more up-to-date, the BBC website seems to have got confused with multiple articles most of which are few days old I haven't seen any recent articles for a while.



Just do a google news search, click on 'tools' and change 'recent' to 'past 24 hours', or 'past hour', to filter out older reports.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 8, 2020)

The nightmare is here already it seems. 

The country can perform tests in theory on 1,000 cases a day.









						PHE novel coronavirus diagnostic test rolled out across UK
					

The increase in diagnostic capacity from one laboratory in London to 12 labs will accelerate the country’s testing capabilities.




					www.gov.uk


----------



## Ax^ (Feb 8, 2020)

make a lot of sense rather than bringing all the samples to central london


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 8, 2020)

sihhi said:


> The nightmare is here already it seems.



They are taking sensible precautions, just in case, that doesn't equal the 'nightmare is here'.  

FFS, we've only had 3 cases so far, stop being over dramatic, it just generates unnecessary fear.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 8, 2020)

On a slightly different angle I wonder if this outbreak could change China's interest in wild meat and if it could possibly reduce the obsession with Chinese medicine and the demands that makes on African wildlife?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 8, 2020)

5 Brits in France, part of a skiing party, have been confirmed to have caught it, one had been a recent visitor to Singapore & infected the others.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 8, 2020)

3 people being tested in the local hospital here. 
15 tested in Ireland so far..
Not many... 
No confirmed case yet


----------



## weltweit (Feb 8, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> 5 Brits in France, part of a skiing party, have been confirmed to have caught it, one had been a recent visitor to Singapore & infected the others.


Bad luck for them, as far as I could tell Singapore only has a handful of cases. That visitor must have been unlucky. Either that or there are more cases there than have been reported.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Bad luck for them, as far as I could tell Singapore only has a handful of cases. That visitor must have been unlucky. Either that or there are more cases there than have been reported.



Or this virus spreads and some people get sicker than others.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 8, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Or this virus spreads and some people get sicker than others.


Well I am sure that's true.


----------



## elbows (Feb 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Bad luck for them, as far as I could tell Singapore only has a handful of cases. That visitor must have been unlucky. Either that or there are more cases there than have been reported.



Singapore was up to 33 cases last time I checked. Also, the 3rd case confirmed in the UK had travelled from there too, so it wasnt very surprising to hear that Singapore was linked with the latest cases as well.

A specific business conference at a particular hotel is strongly linked to cases who caught it there and then travelled to other countries:









						Coronavirus: Gas analysis conference at Grand Hyatt Singapore linked to infections
					

The conference, held over three days from Jan 20, was organised by British firm Servomex.  Read more at straitstimes.com.




					www.straitstimes.com
				




edited to add - I've only just started reading about the French chalet cases, so I havent seen anything linking the person involved in that outbreak to the above conference. But it looks like the dates they were in Singapore match the conference.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 8, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> In China, confirmed cases over 34,500 & 722 deaths.
> 
> One report was suggesting it's likely to be at least 150-200,000 cases now, but it's impossible to know, as labs can't keep up with the required testing.



I suppose the “confirmed cases” are always going to be somewhat lower than the actual number of infections, since it takes two weeks after infection for the symptoms to show, then some further time (days?) for the person to get medical attention, tested and get a test result back. So in reality, even if those confirmed cases statistics were accurate, they would reflect the number of infections which happened some 2-3 weeks ago. 

Your numbers of 150-200k don’t look too unrealistic then.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 8, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Is it too optimistic to suggest that the China line on this “confirmed cases” graph from the John Hopkins tracker page is flattening out, rather than accelerating upwards into a parabola?   I wonder how much faith we can put in these figures, or whether the flattening out reflects limits on the testing capacity available, rather than a levelling out of the rate of infection?
> 
> View attachment 197884



Yes the linear growth seen here looks more like the testing process itself has hit maximum capacity and that rather than the actual number of cases is the limiting factor. You'd expect to see exponential growth in cases at this stage, and that's probably what's actually happening.


----------



## elbows (Feb 8, 2020)

Another study looking at hospitalised patients in Wuhan, this time 138 of them.

Much of it is stuff we already seen in previous reports of this type, but there is more detail in certain areas, such as:



> Of the 138 patients, 57 (41.3%) were presumed to have been infected in hospital, including 17 patients (12.3%) who were already hospitalized for other reasons and 40 health care workers (29%)











						Clinical Characteristics of Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China
					

This single-center case series describes the demographics, symptoms, laboratory and imaging findings, treatment, and clinical course of 138 patients hospitalized with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)–infected pneumonia (NCIP) in Wuhan, China, highlighting presumed human-to-human...




					jamanetwork.com


----------



## Shechemite (Feb 8, 2020)

I’ve had a bastard of a cold all week. 

Think of me kindly sihhi. I go to a better place


----------



## elbows (Feb 8, 2020)

By the way I dont know if the term NCIP they used is an early indication of what the official name is going to be (BBC mentioned earlier in the week that a decision on this was close).

I've certainly seem NCP used elsewhere very recently by China:



National Car Parks will probably be hoping the official name does have an I in it. And its not clear whether China have started using this name because the international body has already told them this is the name they have settled on, or whether its a unilateral decision by China.


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (Feb 8, 2020)

elbows said:


> National Car Parks will probably be hoping the official name does have an I in it. And its not clear whether China have started using this name because the international body has already told them this is the name they have settled on, or whether its a unilateral decision by China.
> 
> View attachment 197907



Shades of


----------



## Sprocket. (Feb 8, 2020)

I truly hope that this virus is stopped and eradicated soon. The devastation of a full blown pandemic lasts for generations. My dad lost his dad and his four sisters to the 1919 ‘Spanish’ pandemic.


----------



## elbows (Feb 8, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> Yes the linear growth seen here looks more like the testing process itself has hit maximum capacity and that rather than the actual number of cases is the limiting factor. You'd expect to see exponential growth in cases at this stage, and that's probably what's actually happening.



When I read things like the following, I cant say I place too much faith in the official statistics for deaths either.



> A Japanese man taken to hospital with pneumonia in Wuhan died after suffering flu-like symptoms consistent with the coronavirus, Japan’s foreign ministry said. The man in his 60s was suspected of having been infected with the coronavirus but due to difficulties in diagnosing the disease the cause of death was given as viral pneumonia, the ministry said, citing Chinese medical authorities.











						Coronavirus: two deaths in Wuhan thought to be first of foreign nationals
					

US citizen, 60, died of virus, while Japan says citizen who died had symptoms of virus




					www.theguardian.com
				




If this applied to the UK then I would start looking at several broader mortality indicators for clues, but I dont know if that data is available in China, especially right now, and if it is then I dont know where to look, and I'm not sure how much faith I'd have in its accuracy.


----------



## elbows (Feb 8, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I suppose the “confirmed cases” are always going to be somewhat lower than the actual number of infections, since it takes two weeks after infection for the symptoms to show, then some further time (days?) for the person to get medical attention, tested and get a test result back. So in reality, even if those confirmed cases statistics were accurate, they would reflect the number of infections which happened some 2-3 weeks ago.
> 
> Your numbers of 150-200k don’t look too unrealistic then.



I've seen estimates such as 50k cases per day in China being plausible at the moment.

eg:



I havent watched the interview yet, I will, I'm mostly expecting the latest version of the themes that have been discussed by such professionals for weeks now, rather than some brand new revelations.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 8, 2020)

An Post, is no longer handling anything posted from China. 
😶


----------



## weltweit (Feb 8, 2020)

The world health organisation is encouraging people to stick to the facts and to avoid conspiracy theories. In particular they mentioned Russia where there are ridiculous conspiracy theories on TV at the moment.

I agree wholeheartedly better to stick with the facts but I wonder where that means we go for them. Perhaps the WHO publish the fact themselves?


----------



## bimble (Feb 8, 2020)

yep.  I've been on WHO website, its basically like flu far as i can see (might be really serious if you're already immune compriomised / vulnerable, otherwise its .. like flu). But everyone's scared because its new and also its not as 'far away' as ebola.
Basic advice: Don't buy a mask, just wash your hands well. Stay away from caughing feverish people. Wash you hands again. Thats it.
Local supermarket here has sold out of anti bacterial washes which is a bit  with this being a virus .


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 8, 2020)

There are 3 possible cases in the local hospital. 
I'll be in and out of that hospital over the next few days with my mum. I've given her a mask but she's all "don't  be daft". Thing is she will be in a ward with up to 9 other patients.
I've  a mask sorted for myself too but I am thinking if I wear it I will freak others out. 
Shit.


----------



## bimble (Feb 8, 2020)

if you wear one read up on how to wear it properly & safely . From what I've read its not a great idea.








						Can wearing a face mask protect you from the new coronavirus?
					

If you're sick with COVID-19 or caring for someone who is, you should wear a face mask.




					www.livescience.com
				












						What are the latest rules for face coverings and masks?
					

Rules around face coverings are easing across the UK but they are still required in some settings.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## weltweit (Feb 8, 2020)

Lupa said:


> There are 3 possible cases in the local hospital.
> I'll be in and out of that hospital over the next few days with my mum. I've given her a mask but she's all "don't  be daft". Thing is she will be in a ward with up to 9 other patients.
> I've  a mask sorted for myself too but I am thinking if I wear it I will freak others out.
> Shit.


Well you have a point, because it is in hospitals where the ill people are. But not just Corona virus but all sorts of other things too.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 8, 2020)

I've just been on the world health organization's website and it isn't very easy to navigate to find these facts that they are are proposing we use.


----------



## Supine (Feb 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I've just been on the world health organization's website and it isn't very easy to navigate to find these facts that they are are proposing we use.



I suspect they want journalist to use facts rather than the public


----------



## elbows (Feb 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I've just been on the world health organization's website and it isn't very easy to navigate to find these facts that they are are proposing we use.



I'd go crazy if I only used the WHO as a source of info. Thats not really what they are saying, although I'm sure they would be delighted if they were always allowed to set the tone and mood.

I'm usually happy to both defend and criticise the WHO, and so far this outbreak is no exception.

Today I am taking issue with the following, which is from the BBC article about the WHO mentioning trolls and conspiracy theories.



> Dr Tedros said that the virus is still concentrated in Hubei, and that over the last four days there appeared to have been a slight stabilisation in the number of cases.
> 
> However, he said it was still too early to say whether or not the virus has plateaued, as epidemics can often slow down before accelerating again.
> 
> But he added that the slow-down was "an opportunity" for them to work to contain the virus.











						Coronavirus: WHO chief warns against 'trolls and conspiracy theories'
					

The WHO's director general says they are trying to tackle misinformation around the virus.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Well, maybe, I dont completely rule this out I suppose. But it seems more likely to be spin to me, since most other sources of comment on the 'slight stabilisation in the number of cases' have urged much caution in interpreting recent numbers in that way at all. So not just a question of whether it might speed up again, but whether it has even really slowed down.

So, is there really 'an opportunity', or is the opportunity just one of being able to sound more optimistic for a while?

Obviously looking properly sort of thing, eg considering whether testing capacity has limited the numbers, has been brought up by people in this thread recently too.

So yeah, sources well beyond the WHO are required, because the WHO is constrained by other considerations that at the very least affect its tone.


----------



## elbows (Feb 8, 2020)

They are more useful when they draw attention to stuff such as terrible global medical equipment shortages that threaten routine healthcare.









						WHO warns of global shortage of face masks and protective suits
					

Fight against coronavirus being hampered by stockpiling of equipment, says body’s chief




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 9, 2020)

bimble said:


> yep.  I've been on WHO website, its basically like flu far as i can see (might be really serious if you're already immune compriomised / vulnerable, otherwise its .. like flu). But everyone's scared because its new and also its not as 'far away' as ebola.
> Basic advice: Don't buy a mask, just wash your hands well. Stay away from caughing feverish people. Wash you hands again. Thats it.
> Local supermarket here has sold out of anti bacterial washes which is a bit  with this being a virus .



It’s much worse than flu due to being a novel virus.


----------



## bimble (Feb 9, 2020)

I dunno. Yeah it novel so its scary and in the news but I'm not going to panic.
The internet says that last winter about 48 million people in the world got flu, almost 100,000 were hospitalised for it and 80,000 died, of normal flu.
Lets see how this compares. 
Also estimated death rate with this new virus seem (early days) to be around 2% of infected people, compared to something like 80% with ebola, I find it interesting how 'we' weren't panicking the same way about that.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 9, 2020)

bimble said:


> I dunno. Yeah it novel so its scary and in the news but I'm not going to panic.
> The internet says that last winter about 48 million people in the world got flu, almost 100,000 were hospitalised for it and 80,000 died, of normal flu.
> Lets see how this compares.
> Also estimated death rate with this new virus seem (early days) to be around 2% of infected people, compared to something like 80% with ebola, I find it interesting how 'we' weren't panicking the same way about that.



You should not panic.

You should prepare for yourself and in particular for those most vulnerable that are close to you.

Ebola is no where near as transmissible as NCP. You need physical contact with the infected or their excretions.

NCP is extremely transmissible as it spreads by aerosol. The reason it will have a greater impact on those who become infected than seasonal flu is because its new and we lack resistance to it. In addition seasonal flu has a lower mortality rate as its mutations that were less lethal succeeded in evolutionary terms having more time to spread due to the host being alive and mobile.

Read this:








						Coronavirus will become a pandemic and is bigger threat than Ebola, expert warns
					

The number of coronavirus infections exceeded 30,000 and it appears to continue surging while experts are fighting to develop a vaccine to the virus




					www.mirror.co.uk
				




Watch this:


----------



## bimble (Feb 9, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> You should prepare for yourself



how?
I might be doing a bit of bravado as am flying on Tuesday to a city in India that’s had a few confirmed cases. Don’t see any way to prepare myself, just wash hands & move if possible if seated next to a sneezer.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 9, 2020)

bimble said:


> how?
> I might be doing a bit of bravado as am flying on Tuesday to a city in India that’s had a few confirmed cases. Don’t see any way to prepare myself, just wash hands & move if possible if seated next to a sneezer.



If i was going to India for a holiday i would not go. India cities are often densely population and chaotic. If you’re on holiday there youll be eating out for most meals. Food prepared by many different people. You will be in close proximity with many others. India will be there next year.


----------



## bimble (Feb 9, 2020)

Yeah no. it’s work trip (plus holiday after) and I think that’s a massive overreaction, personally.  Would be different if I had compromised immune system etc.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 9, 2020)

bimble said:


> Yeah no. it’s work trip (plus holiday after) and I think that’s a massive overreaction, personally.  Would be different if I had compromised immune system etc.



If its work i would definitely not go. Whatever you do inform yourself so you are better prepared to make this decision.


----------



## bimble (Feb 9, 2020)

What did you mean by ‘prepare yourself’ in your previous post?
I’m really looking forward to it and definitely going. Would cancel if it was China.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 9, 2020)

Read this document about planning for a viral respiratory pandemic. Note the current mortality rate is just over 2% which may seem low to the unfamiliar but as you’ll read is high.



			https://www.hopkins-cepar.org/white_papers/Pan_Flu_Plan_5-30-2013.pdf


----------



## lizzieloo (Feb 9, 2020)

Better not go to MK either then, or if your logic applies, the UK. I expect there will be more cases here in a few weeks than in India.









						Milton Keynes hotel where coronavirus Brits will be quarantined for two weeks
					

The group will stay in a hotel for two weeks under observation but will be given entertainment such as Netflix and tablets while being quarantined following their return from Wuhan, China




					www.google.com
				




The locals on Fb are pretty amusing.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 9, 2020)

The is the Centre for Disease Control’s Pandemic Severity Index: Pandemic severity index - Wikipedia

Above 2% mortality and its considered the very most severe.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 9, 2020)

lizzieloo said:


> Better not go to MK either then, or if your logic applies, the UK. I expect there will be more cases here in a few weeks than in India.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The people are in quarantine. The UK is far better prepared and resourced than India. I’m not telling bimble what to do. I’m saying get informed so you are better aware of the risks you’ll need to accept.


----------



## bimble (Feb 9, 2020)

India’s only had 3 confirmed cases so far as I can see. Less than Uk then. Out of a population of some 1.4 billion. Not sure how to calculate risk but , I’m not that unlucky.


----------



## lizzieloo (Feb 9, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> The people are in quarantine. The UK is far better prepared and resourced than India. I’m not telling bimble what to do. I’m saying get informed so you are better aware of the risks you’ll need to accept.



The people in India could be in quarantine too for all you know, in fact they certainly will be as confirmed cases. 

I get that you're not telling anyone what to do, you are fear mongering though.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 9, 2020)

I don't think it's fear-mongering - the population density in Indian cities is almost 10 times what it is in Milton Keynes, so there's a much higher chance of being infected by a stranger. This isn't a good time to visit a big Asian city, especially not one where citizens aren't taking precautions like wearing face masks to stop themselves infecting others if they are sick.

If I had a trip to India planned and I really wanted to go, I would probably still go, but I would keep my time wandering around the city to a minimum, and I would reconsider the trip if I lived with an elderly relative.


----------



## Shechemite (Feb 9, 2020)

Better to stay away from Milton Keynes though.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 9, 2020)

The BBC is reporting that the death toll in hubei is now 780 which exceeds the total death toll from SARS.

And that does not include the death toll from other parts of China and around the world.

It is pretty grim news.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 9, 2020)

Sky reporting a total of 813 deaths now, all but two in China.

Also a Brit in Spain is another confirmed case, 3 others tested were OK.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 9, 2020)

This writer makes a good case against "whataboutism" with the flu.



> When it comes to disease—and particularly infectious ones—it’s best to avoid pitting pathogens against one another in a sort of “mortality rate Olympics”.











						Coronavirus Is Bad. Comparing It to the Flu Is Worse
					

The whataboutism of infectious disease is as dangerous as it is hackneyed.




					www.wired.com


----------



## Supine (Feb 9, 2020)

Long read but worth it. An interview with a doctor at the frontline.









						Reporter's Notebook: Life and death in a Wuhan coronavirus ICU
					

WUHAN (CAIXIN GLOBAL) - In the coronavirus epidemic, doctors on the front lines take on the greatest risk and best understand the situation. Peng Zhiyong, director of acute medicine at the Wuhan University South Central Hospital, is one of those doctors.  Read more at straitstimes.com.




					www.straitstimes.com


----------



## sihhi (Feb 9, 2020)

There's a fourth infected patient, contact of patient 3 from France:








						CMO confirms fourth case of coronavirus in England
					

Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty statement about a new case of novel coronavirus in England.




					www.gov.uk
				




Plus a strange case in Shenzhen:








						深圳新增确诊的15个病例，个案如下！（2月8日）
					

不要聚集




					mp.weixin.qq.com
				




病例348
60岁女性患者，常住于湖北宜昌。1月19日前往武汉，20日从武汉出发到伦敦旅游，31日从伦敦前往广州，2月2日到深圳。26日发病，2月5日入院

60 year old woman patient, usually lives in Yichang, Hubei. 19 Jan went to Wuhan, Hubei. 20 Jan from Wuhan set off for London. 31 Jan went from London to Guangzhou, Guangdong. 2 Feb to Sheznzhen, Guangdong. Got sick on Jan 26, entered hospital on Feb 5.


The government advice is the same: Coronavirus: latest information and advice


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 9, 2020)

Supine said:


> Long read but worth it. An interview with a doctor at the frontline.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


 Good article. An extract here of what I found the most interesting passage:



> I've observed that the breakout period of the novel coronavirus tends to be three weeks, from the onset of symptoms to developing difficulties breathing. Basically going from mild to severe symptoms takes about a week. There are all sorts of mild symptoms: feebleness, shortness of breath, some people have fevers, some don't. Based on studies of our 138 cases, the most common symptoms in the first stage are fever (98.6 per cent of cases), feebleness (69.6 per cent), cough (59.4 per cent), muscle pains (34.8 per cent), difficulties breathing (31.2%), while less common symptoms include headaches, dizziness, stomach pain, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting.
> 
> But some patients who enter the second week will suddenly get worse. At this stage, people should go to the hospital. The elderly with underlying conditions may develop complications; some may need machine-assisted respiration. When the body's other organs start to fail, that's when it becomes severe, while those with strong immune systems see their symptoms decrease in severity at this stage and gradually recover. So the second week is what determines whether the illness becomes critical.
> 
> ...


----------



## sihhi (Feb 9, 2020)

Situation in Zambia:









						'We're definitely not prepared': Africa braces for new virus
					

LUSAKA, Zambia (AP) — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak...




					news4sanantonio.com
				




Several African nations such as Ghana, South Africa and Ethiopia have announced their precautions, including updates on negative test results for suspected cases and demonstrations of surveillance and quarantine capabilities. Ethiopian Airlines, however, faces questions by some in Africa about why it continues to operate more than 30 China flights a week while other African airlines have suspended theirs.

Adding to the difficulties in diagnosing the new virus are numerous diseases in Africa with symptoms that include fever or coughing or both.

It's impossible to diagnose the new virus by symptoms alone, Gates Foundation CEO Mark Suzman said, adding that there is a "significant likelihood" that the virus will be confirmed in Africa. And there is a risk that "panic overtakes good public health and good science."

...

"We are now practicing hygiene, even in the mines," said the Kitwe-based president of the Mine Workers Union of Zambia, Joseph Chewe. "Any report of a person with coronavirus here will be very disastrous."


----------



## Ponyutd (Feb 9, 2020)

The next lot are going to Milton Keynes. Haven't they suffered enough?


----------



## extra dry (Feb 9, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Situation in Zambia:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This book of revelations stuff, war, fires, floods, plauges, death


----------



## elbows (Feb 9, 2020)

Indonesia is also causing concerns because models based on traffic patterns etc tend to suggest they should have had some cases, but none have been detected.


----------



## Supine (Feb 9, 2020)

elbows said:


> Indonesia is also causing concerns because models based on traffic patterns etc tend to suggest they should have had some cases, but none have been detected.



I was thinking that about Bali in particular. It has loads of Chinese tourists...


----------



## extra dry (Feb 9, 2020)

Denosovan DNA?
  OR 
  Aliens
 Or 

Non have been reported as such


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 9, 2020)

I’m not a health care professional but risk is what i deal with as a day job. Humans are incredibly bad at intuitively judging risk appropriately. We have so many biases in our overworked brains. To judge risk  any where near accurately is a slog. You have to do the hard yards, the analysis, the calculations and tables for even relatively simple scenarios. What I’m saying is you can’t “feel” risk and expect it to be reliable, especially for things you have no experience of. The posters here who have knowledge and experience aren’t doom mongers, the information here has been delivered in a sober way. There is a wide margin of error with predictions but the tone and message of those with the background have made more assertive warnings in the last few days.


----------



## bimble (Feb 9, 2020)

That is true. Assessing risk on gut feeling is not a good method.
But whilst worrying about corovirus in India a giant tree crashed down sort of trapping me in my house and cutting phone & electric. Which is an odd day.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 9, 2020)

bimble said:


> That is true. Assessing risk on gut feeling is not a good method.
> But whilst worrying about corovirus in India a giant tree crashed down sort of trapping me in my house and cutting phone & electric. Which is an odd day.



A useful trick i sometimes use to deal with uncertainties that may cause worries and anxiety is to write them down. Get them out of your head, recognise them. I find this buys a bit of relief and starts the process of assessing risk. Even informally starting here can help structure vague anxieties.

Don’t worry, read up on the situation, assess your concerns and then you can feel more confident with whatever you choose.


----------



## elbows (Feb 9, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> There is a wide margin of error with predictions but the tone and message of those with the background have made more assertive warnings in the last few days.



Yeah, containment optimism was on the decrease by the time this thread was created, and by about 2 weeks ago most of the experts I read on twitter etc didnt have much faith left that containment would be successful. Pretty much everything learnt since then continues to point in that direction, and so we are seeing more changes to the sentiments expressed and language used. This change in message will not be completed until there is more ongoing transmission in other countries, and I dont know exactly when to expect that to be detected and announced. Fairly soon I would think, but sometimes these things take a week or two longer than I'd anticipated.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 9, 2020)

Do we know what the prognosis for those who have recovered from this virus is?  Whether there are lasting effects such as lung damage, etc. or if surviving this thing is a ticket back to life as normal?

I wonder how immune to it people are once recovered?


----------



## Supine (Feb 9, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Do we know what the prognosis for those who have recovered from this virus is?  Whether there are lasting effects such as lung damage, etc. or if surviving this thing is a ticket back to life as normal?
> 
> I wonder how immune to it people are once recovered?



depends on the individuals immune system but most would recover. They'd only catch it again if it mutated and they were unlucky.


----------



## extra dry (Feb 9, 2020)

Risk


Of

Using

Paragraphs?


----------



## elbows (Feb 9, 2020)

Supine said:


> depends on the individuals immune system but most would recover. They'd only catch it again if it mutated and they were unlucky.



Apparently immunity against other coronaviruses only lasts a year or two, but I've been rather underwhelmed by the degree of historical study into coronaviruses compared to things like flu. But here is one example of this being mentioned in 1996 anyway:





__





						Coronaviruses - Medical Microbiology - NCBI Bookshelf
					





					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				






> *Host Defenses*
> The appearance of antibody in serum and nasal secretions is followed by resolution of the infection. Immunity wanes within a year or two.
> *Epidemiology*
> Incidence peaks in the winter, taking the form of local epidemics lasting a few weeks or months. The same serotype may return to an area after several years.





> The epidemiology of coronavirus colds has been little studied. Waves of infection pass through communities during the winter months, and often cause small outbreaks in families, schools, etc. (Fig. 60-2). Immunity does not persist, and subjects may be re-infected, sometimes within a year. The pattern thus differs from that of rhinovirus infections, which peak in the fall and spring and generally elicit long-lasting immunity. About one in five colds is due to coronaviruses.


----------



## elbows (Feb 9, 2020)

Carrying on with that same point, I havent yet found anything that indicates that the reasons for reinfection with the same strain of endemic coronavirus are well understood. I mostly just find references to the phenomenon being observed, such as:



> Interestingly, patient 3 was diagnosed as CoV-OC43 positive again 20 months after the infection described above (data not shown), which confirms the widespread prevalence, the possibility of reinfection and the apparent lack of protecting immunity against the same subtype of CoV



(from , Europe PMC and note that CoV-OC43 is one of the cold-causing coronaviruses that has been widespread in humans for a very long time indeed)

edit - oh and this one. I dont know if 4 months is accurate, or the basis for the claim, or whether any of this stuff has been superseded by more recent knowledge. Nor do we know if the same thing will apply to this new coronavirus.



> Reinfection of individuals with the same human coronavirus serotype often occurs within 4 months of the first infection, suggesting that homologous antibodies are protective for only 4 months. Although many people have high antibody levels after infection, reinfection with the same or related strains is common.








						Coronaviruses, Coronavirus Infections
					

This page contains notes viruses that cause the common cold



					virology-online.com
				




And one more edit - a final example, same kind of story with another common human coronavirus, 229E:









						(PDF) Human Coronaviruses 229E and NL63: Close Yet Still So Far
					

PDF | HCoV-NL63 and HCoV-229E are two of the four human coronaviruses that circulate worldwide. These two viruses are unique in their relationship... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate




					www.researchgate.net
				






> Studies with HCoV-229E infection of volunteers have shown that reinfection with common cold symptoms occurs when the level of antibodies directed against the virus is low. The decrease in titers of HCoV-229E antibodies is observed as soon as 1 year after infection, which indicates that every individual probably encounters numerous infections by HCoV-229E during a lifetime.



The 'reinfection with common cold symptoms' bit also relates to other stuff said in that one, painting a picture where people mostly get it as young children, and numerous subsequent reinfections later on tend to be milder, 'just a cold' type stuff.

With this latter point in mind, as well as considering whether people can be made ill by this new coronavirus more than once, there will be the question of whether subsequent infections are less severe. Not sure there will be any hard and fast rules discovered with this one, given that we dont really understand why outcomes to first infection vary so much, let alone subsequent ones.


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (Feb 9, 2020)

Ponyutd said:


> The next lot are going to Milton Keynes. Haven't they suffered enough?



would rather take my chances in Wuhan, tbf.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 9, 2020)

About the hospitals, a bit promotional, but I think interesting.


----------



## stavros (Feb 9, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> would rather take my chances in Wuhan, tbf.



Wuhan Clan ain't nuthin' ta fuck wit'.


----------



## elbows (Feb 9, 2020)

A study that looks at 1,099 patients has some interesting bits and bobs in it.



			https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.06.20020974v1.full.pdf
		


For example there seem to be less smokers and former smokers than I might have expected. And as with some previous reports, the idea that most people who end up in hospital from it have other underlying conditions or are old is misleading, or at least rather overstated.


----------



## Supine (Feb 10, 2020)

More data on infection rates etc. As the authors acknowledge the numbers are changing rapidly as data is gathered. 









						COVID-19
					

Since the emergence of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) in December 2019, we have adopted a policy of immediately sharing research findings on the deve...




					www.imperial.ac.uk


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 10, 2020)

The govt is starting to get people prepared for what’s coming. So much denial at present, people regarding this as only a Chinese problem, or “just another bird flu scare” ( poll results at the top of this page)!

New emergency laws to enforce quarantine. 









						Coronavirus: UK cases double as four more people diagnosed
					

The government issues new powers to force people into quarantine as UK cases double to eight.



					www.bbc.com
				




Here is the statement on the DoH website 








						Secretary of State makes new regulations on coronavirus
					

New regulations made by the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care to delay or prevent further transmission of the virus.




					www.gov.uk


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 10, 2020)

Sky News reporting the Dept. of Health has confirmed another four new cases in the UK, making total of 8.









						UK coronavirus cases double as four more test positive after contact with 'superspreader'
					

Eleven Britons are thought to have been infected by a man who caught the virus in Singapore then went to France and the UK.




					news.sky.com


----------



## skyscraper101 (Feb 10, 2020)

This is all getting as bit 28 days later for my comfort levels.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 10, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> I’m not a health care professional but risk is what i deal with as a day job. Humans are incredibly bad at intuitively judging risk appropriately. We have so many biases in our overworked brains. To judge risk  any where near accurately is a slog. You have to do the hard yards, the analysis, the calculations and tables for even relatively simple scenarios. What I’m saying is you can’t “feel” risk and expect it to be reliable, especially for things you have no experience of. The posters here who have knowledge and experience aren’t doom mongers, the information here has been delivered in a sober way. There is a wide margin of error with predictions but the tone and message of those with the background have made more assertive warnings in the last few days.



The fun part is that even if you know about every inherent bias and heuristic process in human thought, they still affect you just the same.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 10, 2020)

These new cases are all connected with the Brits in France that have gone down with it, all seem to have been infected by one 'super spreader', the UK's third case & first Briton, the guy from Hove.



> Officials are now scrambling to identify the hundreds of people the man in his fifties may have come into contact with, including 183 passengers and six crew on an Easyjet flight from Geneva to London.
> 
> The man, understood to be the first UK national to contract the virus, is said to be linked to cases in England, France and Spain. He is believed to have caught the virus during a four day trip to Singapore for a sales conference for a gas analysis company.
> 
> He then took a flight to the Alps to ski in Les Contamines-Montjoie in late January where five more Britons including a nine-year-old boy became infected.











						British 'super spreader' gave at least seven people coronavirus
					

The businessman is believed to have caught the virus after a trip to Singapore.




					metro.co.uk


----------



## andysays (Feb 10, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> The govt is starting to get people prepared for what’s coming. So much denial at present, people regarding this as only a Chinese problem, or “just another bird flu scare” ( poll results at the top of this page)!
> 
> New emergency laws to enforce quarantine.
> 
> ...



According to BBC website, the new regulations are because one of the evacuees currently in quarantine has threatened to abscond


----------



## sihhi (Feb 10, 2020)

Now up to 8 cases.









						Chief Medical Officer for England announces 4 further coronavirus cases
					

Professor Chris Whitty announces 4 further cases of coronavirus.




					www.gov.uk
				




Advice at present unchanged 




__





						England Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK
					

Official Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease situation dashboard with latest data in the UK.




					www.gov.uk


----------



## sihhi (Feb 10, 2020)

This is the situation in Hove:









						Coronavirus in Brighton and Hove: what we know so far
					

PUBGOERS and a school pupil with links to the Hove man being treated for coronavirus are in “self isolation” following advice from Public Health…




					www.theargus.co.uk


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 10, 2020)

Can we merge these threads?


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 10, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Can we merge these threads?


Keep this one in isolation.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 10, 2020)

Details from Brighton:

A chef at a pub in Hove only found out the infected businessman had visited and that his colleagues were 'self-isolating' when he read it online
A Brighton health centre has been closed after four more cases of coronavirus were confirmed in the city
Five staff at The Grenadier in Hove, his local pub, have been instructed to self-isolate for a fortnight after he went there for a pint on Saturday February 1.

Other staff and drinkers there on a busy Saturday evening have claimed they learned of the development on Facebook or via the local paper, the Brighton Argus.  
...
And a student at Portslade Aldridge Community Academy in Brighton has also been told to stay at home for two weeks amid fears he came into contact with the so-called 'super spreader'.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

andysays said:


> According to BBC website, the new regulations are because one of the evacuees currently in quarantine has threatened to abscond



I wish the media and government were less coy about which regulations. I'm assuming that stuff in the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 has been activated, but it will take me a while to check.


----------



## Callie (Feb 10, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> These new cases are all connected with the Brits in France that have gone down with it, all seem to have been infected by one 'super spreader', the UK's third case & first Briton, the guy from Hove.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Metro  superspreader  I think it's worth keeping in mind that the protocol for follow up of a positive test will be to test any contacts. It would not be unusual to find those in close quarters with a positive testing person may also be positive. I think the term superspreader is tabloid headline bullshit  to 'sell' more papers (yes the metro is free)


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

When talking about the WHO, I might have made it sound like I think they are always overly reassuring with their message. I dont actually think thats the case, it varies and is an awkward balancing act.



I post that in part because its another example where there are signs of the evolution of the message. Specifically, the idea that the containment strategy wont halt this thing, it will slow it, creating a window of opportunity. Thats a way to manage public expectations about how much containment will achieve, without dumping the containment strategy completely. I believe that in the USA the CDC message has also evolved in this manner recently.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 10, 2020)

Researchers now say the incubation period could be up to 24 days.





__





						Error - RTHK
					






					news.rthk.hk


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

Callie said:


> Metro  superspreader  I think it's worth keeping in mind that the protocol for follow up of a positive test will be to test any contacts. It would not be unusual to find those in close quarters with a positive testing person may also be positive. I think the term superspreader is tabloid headline bullshit  to 'sell' more papers (yes the metro is free)



Its a phrase and concept the media love for sure. There is actually some truth to it, and its probably a phenomenon in the spread of more common illnesses too. Its just we dont really get to catch a glimpse of it during normal outbreaks because the transmission, contacts etc are not tracked under those circumstances.

edited to add - see the wikipedia entry, which is certainly not taking all its cues from tabloids. And SARS in 2003 involved some well documented super-spreader events. Super-spreader - Wikipedia


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 10, 2020)

Callie said:


> Metro  superspreader  I think it's worth keeping in mind that the protocol for follow up of a positive test will be to test any contacts. It would not be unusual to find those in close quarters with a positive testing person may also be positive. I think the term superspreader is tabloid headline bullshit  to 'sell' more papers (yes the metro is free)



The term 'super spreader' is being used by a lot of media outlets, including TV news channels, in respect of this man, and it was used before to describe at least one case in China, where someone had infected 14 people.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> I wish the media and government were less coy about which regulations. I'm assuming that stuff in the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 has been activated, but it will take me a while to check.



Had a quick look, seems more likely to be done under the Health and Social Care Act 2008, and the ability it grants the Secretary of State to make 'health protection regulations'. I havent read up on this properly yet, I will.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 10, 2020)

A translation from China Newsweek about the crucial months December and January in Wuhan





__





						The Regret of Wuhan: How China Missed the Critical Window for Controlling the Coronavirus Outbreak
					

By Li Xiangyu (李想俣), Li Mingzi (李明子), Peng Danni (彭丹妮), and Du Wei (杜玮), in the February 10 issue of China News Weekly Out of mountains of reports about the coronavirus epidemic, we at China Change…




					chinachange.org


----------



## kalidarkone (Feb 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Where did you see those figures if you don't mind me asking?
> 
> On another matter I have read that Chinese medical staff in Hubei are expected to work 10 hour shifts with no no breaks for food or toilet which seems pretty extreme to me.


Sounds like working for the NHS.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 10, 2020)

Callie said:


> Metro  superspreader  I think it's worth keeping in mind that the protocol for follow up of a positive test will be to test any contacts. It would not be unusual to find those in close quarters with a positive testing person may also be positive. I think the term superspreader is tabloid headline bullshit  to 'sell' more papers (yes the metro is free)



Every infected body can become a 'superspreader' depending on what is happens to them. 
In MERS one patient spread the disease to 
_82 people (33 patients, eight health-care workers, and 41 visitors) being infected following exposure to Patient 14 on May 27–29 in the emergency room. 



			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)30828-5/fulltext
		

_
A lot of super-spread events can occur in health facilities, hotels, cruise ships which are not aerated as much as needed.
Norovirus on the Mediterranean cruise ship was another example.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

sihhi said:


> A translation from China Newsweek about the crucial months December and January in Wuhan
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Good stuff, lots of useful info regarding January there. Plenty that points to control of information and failures at the national level. Local failings too, but pinning the blame mostly on them for failures during a crucial period in January would be a deflection.

December on the other hand remains murky. I do not, for example, consider the assertion that much earlier closure of the market would have changed the nature of the outbreak to be safe. Because it makes assumptions about how much the market was involved in continual transmission beyond the initial infections, and the limited data we do have suggests a more complex picture, and more human to human transmission, even at that stage. Nor can I take at face value the idea that days immediately after December 8th were an early opportunity to do something, because I will need to check whether such an early date for cases was only discovered with the benefit of hindsight. I will try to scape together various parts of the December picture and see if I can make a little more sense of this period.


----------



## Idris2002 (Feb 10, 2020)

I see there's a case reported in North Korea now.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 10, 2020)

"INDEED", a company in Dublin, has asked all its workers to work from home until the 17th. Some risk of contact with coronavirus from a Singapore contact.




__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

GP practice in Brighton closed due to a staff member testing positive. Breaking news so I havent got a proper story to link to yet.

edited to add:


----------



## two sheds (Feb 10, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> The term 'super spreader' is being used by a lot of media outlets, including TV news channels, in respect of this man, and it was used before to describe at least one case in China, where someone had infected 14 people.



At least it gives us the people to blame for the spread.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

One of the 4 cases confirmed earlier (caught via the French ski resort Brit who travelled from Singapore) was said to be a doctor, so I suppose its reasonable to think that the doctor worked at the County Oak Medical Centre. As opposed to an infected patient spreading it to a worker at that centre. This also explains why this case was actually detected, ie likely via contact tracing rather than general surveillance.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

Only have to look at the various dates related to confirmed UK cases to see why this will be so difficult to contain.

eg the easyjet flight of January 28th. The pub visit on Feb 1.

1-2 weeks detection & information lag behind the reality is to be expected, but it sure does add to the sense of futility.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 10, 2020)

Time to lock-down Brighton, it's too near to Worthing to be comfortable.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

Singapore is already setting the scene for the next phase. These quotes are from a statement from their PM that was delivered on Saturday 8th Feb.



> But in the last few days, we have seen some cases which cannot be traced to the source of infection. These worried us, because it showed that the virus is probably already circulating in our own population. This is why we raised the Dorscon (Disease Outbreak Response System Condition) to orange yesterday, and are stepping up measures.





> Right now, we are continuing to do contact tracing and to quarantine close contacts. But I expect to see more cases with no known contacts in the coming days.





> If the numbers keep growing, at some point we will have to reconsider our strategy. If the virus is widespread, it is futile to try to trace every contact. If we still hospitalise and isolate every suspect case, our hospitals will be overwhelmed. At that point, provided that the fatality rate stays low like flu, we should shift our approach. Encourage those who only have mild symptoms to see their family GP, and rest at home instead of going to the hospital, and let hospitals and healthcare workers focus on the most vulnerable patients - the elderly, young children, and those with medical complications.





> We are not at that point yet. It may or may not happen, but we are thinking ahead and anticipating the next few steps. And I am sharing these possibilities with you, so that we are all mentally prepared for what may come.











						PM Lee Hsien Loong on the coronavirus situation in Singapore
					

SINGAPORE - Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong spoke about the coronavirus situation in Singapore on Saturday (Feb 8) .  Read more at straitstimes.com.




					www.straitstimes.com


----------



## starfish (Feb 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> GP practice in Brighton closed due to a staff member testing positive. Breaking news so I havent got a proper story to link to yet.
> 
> edited to add:



Fuck. Thats my surgery. Im just round the corner from it.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

Its been said somewhere that the staff member who tested positive did not see any patients during the period in question, they did one days admin work in the building. I dont remember where I read this right now.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

Oh how I hate this shitty shit shit:


Fuck whoever it was that wrote that. For a start, the person at the heart of this particular cluster did nothing wrong, they had been in Singapore, not China, not Wuhan, and they did not travel around with symptoms, so they were not an irresponsible traveller.

I got the above shitty readers comment from Coronavirus LIVE updates as four new cases confirmed in Brighton - including GP


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 10, 2020)

kalidarkone said:


> Sounds like working for the NHS.


No way I could manage not having a piss for ten hours.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 10, 2020)

Looking pretty grim for passengers on the quarantined cruise ship Diamond Princess in Yokohama. A further 60 cases today, 40 the day before and now 130 in total on one ship.

This couple who are on the ship have been doing interviews with C4 news. First one nice and positive 



Second one starting to look a bit more circumspect 



I wonder if there will be a third and if so how they will look?


----------



## weltweit (Feb 10, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> No way I could manage not having a piss for ten hours.


That was what I was thinking. kalidarkone do you really not get the opportunity to have a pee in the NHS?


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

Stories of long shifts with no toilet or lunch break in China are likely related to personal protective equipment, how long it takes to remove it, whether you have to use a completely new set every time, etc.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

Now there are fears of another Amoy Gardens type event in Hong Kong. Amoy Gardens was a housing complex where sewage pipework was implicated in the spread of SARS, and was one of the incidents I mentioned when the idea of faecal contamination was being discussed earlier in the thread.


----------



## bimble (Feb 10, 2020)

Still find all this a bit much , though admittedly might be brazening it out a bit because of flight tomorrow. But 11,000 dead so far from Ebola virus, and nobody in UK or even Europe has died of this new one so why the massive difference in attention?


----------



## weltweit (Feb 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> Stories of long shifts with no toilet or lunch break in China are likely related to personal protective equipment, how long it takes to remove it, whether you have to use a completely new set every time, etc.


Sure, I have read that there is only one set of protective gear per person per shift in China / Wuhan hospitals and that removing them to have a pee or whatever, invalidates the protective aspect of the gear requiring a new set. Still as mentioned 10 hours without a pee is going some. I suppose they are probably sweating lots of liquids off under their gear though so perhaps it isn't as straightforward as that.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 10, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Time to lock-down Brighton, it's too near to Worthing to be comfortable.



That's certainly one of the main reasons I avoid Brighton.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> Oh how I hate this shitty shit shit:
> 
> View attachment 198167
> Fuck whoever it was that wrote that. For a start, the person at the heart of this particular cluster did nothing wrong, they had been in Singapore, not China, not Wuhan, and they did not travel around with symptoms, so they were not an irresponsible traveller.
> ...



I was joking about locking down Brighton, this guy seems fucking serious about it.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 10, 2020)

bimble said:


> Still find all this a bit much , though admittedly might be brazening it out a bit because of flight tomorrow. But 11,000 dead so far from Ebola virus, and nobody in UK or even Europe has died of this new one so why the massive difference in attention?


NCP has already infected more people in 2 months than Ebola infected in its 3 year epidemic.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Sure, I have read that there is only one set of protective gear per person per shift in China / Wuhan hospitals and that removing them to have a pee or whatever, invalidates the protective aspect of the gear requiring a new set. Still as mentioned 10 hours without a pee is going some. I suppose they are probably sweating lots of liquids off under their gear though so perhaps it isn't as straightforward as that.



Reports have said they are wearing 'adult nappies', to avoid taking their suits off.


----------



## bimble (Feb 10, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> NCP has already infected more people in 2 months than Ebola infected in its 3 year epidemic.


Oh. Didn’t know . Must be ducking terrifying if you’re in a plague city.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 10, 2020)

I am feeling a bit negative about the situation in the UK. This one guy that came from Singapore infected some Brits in a French ski chalet then came back to the UK and infected some more just shows how easy it is for this virus to travel.

And this individual is just one example, there could be many more travelling from Singapore for example to the UK - who could have been incubating the virus. We don't know anything about them and maybe never will but they could be spreading it just as easily as this person did.

I know that they are tracing his contacts but there will be people he was in contact with who are now spreading the virus amongst new groups of people. I don't see how it is possible to trace them all.

I think we have to accept that it is here in the UK now.


----------



## kalidarkone (Feb 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> That was what I was thinking. kalidarkone do you really not get the opportunity to have a pee in the NHS?


I'm allowed of course and have a right to 30 minutes break per 10.5 hour shift and 60 mins per 11.5 hours  (unpaid break) and means I'm always in work for 12 hours + taking into account arriving and changing into scrubs.....
However I mentioned it because I recently had a shift that started at 7 and finished at 17.30. I had my break at 1600 and that is when I realised I'd not had a wee since leaving home at 6.15   
It's not like that all the time -but it is on the wards. We get a lot of UTI's. There is so much to do and so few of us. This should probably go on the work fustration or NHS thread.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 10, 2020)

Apple's main iPhone maker Foxconn to resume some Chinese production









						Apple's main iPhone maker Foxconn to resume some Chinese production: source
					

Apple's main iPhone maker Foxconn <2317.TW> got the green light on Monday to reopen two major plants in China closed because of the coronavirus and aims to resume production even though only 10% of the workforce has returned so far, a source told Reuters.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## weltweit (Feb 10, 2020)

A bit about the UK, since the legal position has changed about legally required supported isolation.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> supported isolation


_supported isolation_, or FEMA DEATH CAMPS?


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> _supported isolation_, or FEMA DEATH CAMPS?



Its worse than that.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 10, 2020)

Crew members on the Cruise of Doom are now getting sick - sounds like conditions are such that it could spread among them quickly.



> Below decks, the situation is different. There, hundreds of crew members are eating, living and working elbow to elbow as they try to keep life as comfortable as possible for those above. They line up for simple buffet meals and then sit down together to eat. Bathrooms are shared by up to four people, and cabins often by two.
> 
> ....at least 10 crew members have been infected, with five cases announced on Sunday and five more on Monday. According to employees, the infected crew members identified on Sunday had been eating in the mess hall alongside their co-workers.
> 
> Unlike the passengers they serve, most of whom come from wealthy nations, the ship’s employees are overwhelmingly from developing countries like India and the Philippines.











						Cruise Ship’s Coronavirus Outbreak Leaves Crew Nowhere to Hide (Published 2020)
					

Cases of the new virus on the quarantined Diamond Princess reached 135 Monday, including 20 Americans. Conditions below decks could risk further spread.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its worse than that.



Even worst - https://www.urban75.net/forums/threads/24-hours-at-pontins.360476/


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Crew members on the Cruise of Doom are now getting sick - sounds like conditions are such that it could spread among them quickly.



Cruise ships seem to be considered to be a sort of human petri dish in some circles, and I think thats a reputation that precludes the current outbreak but most certainly applies to it.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 10, 2020)

I think it's outrageous that even with the quarantine order, they are expected to stay on the ship working in close quarters and serving more privileged people - most of them should be transferred to a facility on land where they would  have more personal space, and they should still receive full pay while there.

I'm not sure how that would work out with the quarantined passengers getting meals, etc., but if there's any country likely to have robots up to the task, it's Japan.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

There have been so many outrages during these stages, I have highlighted a few but havent said anything like as much as I'd want and I feel bad about that. It's mostly because I am so focussed on the quickly evolving spread, and because it will be easier to go on about disgusting overreactions and counterproductive measures once we are safely past the point of finding out whether containment is possible.

Japans nuclear accident revealed how shit their (and everyone elses) robots were. That disaster has probably helped fuel development on the robot front, albeit in the direction of highly specific robots for particular tasks. The basics werent/arent there, eg they werent wireless so all manner of 'robot stuck in the reactor building' incidents occurred when cables got snagged. They did use a drone early on, but it crashed on the roof of reactor 2's building.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 10, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I think it's outrageous that even with the quarantine order, they are expected to stay on the ship working in close quarters and serving more privileged people - most of them should be transferred to a facility on land where they would  have more personal space, and they should still receive full pay while there.
> 
> I'm not sure how that would work out with the quarantined passengers getting meals, etc., but if there's any country likely to have robots up to the task, it's Japan.



Trouble is, the staff are a risk too & need to be under quarantine, and there're several hundreds of them, so there's unlikely to be anywhere on land to 'warehouse' them all.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 10, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Trouble is, the staff are a risk too & need to be under quarantine, and there're several hundreds of them, so there's unlikely to be anywhere on land to 'warehouse' them all.


That's all very well not wanting to warehouse the crew as they are at the moment, but if they get infected they will have to be quarantined and considering the conditions they're living under it seems very likely many of them will be infected.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> That's all very well not wanting to warehouse the crew as they are at the moment, but if they get infected they will have to be quarantined and considering the conditions they're living under it seems very likely many of them will be infected.



The whole ship is currently quarantined, crew & passengers alike.

You seem to be confusing quarantine with isolation.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 10, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> ..
> You seem to be confusing quarantine with isolation.


I might be, what do you understand of the two terms?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I might be, what do you understand of the two terms?



In the UK we currently have a few hundred who have been brought back from China in quarantine centres, and about 8 in isolation at specialist hospitals.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

Does anybody know anybody who works in or studies public health communication, panic, confidence in the message, and stuff like that?

Because really todays live updates page from The Argus is a fine thing to study. Thats where the awful readers comment I posted earlier came from, and its been a giddy mix of news, various messages from public figures, reader opinion, some random tweets, and a journalist getting frustrated when trying to get through to NHS communication team (and/or local/regional Clinical Commissioning Group). With some info thrown in about a study that said incubation could even be up to 24 days. Oh and this image of tomorrows front page.














						Coronavirus LIVE updates as five cases confirmed in Brighton
					

We are providing live updates after four new coronavirus cases were confirmed in Brighton.




					www.theargus.co.uk


----------



## rookwood (Feb 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> Does anybody know anybody who works in or studies public health communication, panic, confidence in the message, and stuff like that?
> 
> Because really todays live updates page from The Argus is a fine thing to study. Thats where the awful readers comment I posted earlier came from, and its been a giddy mix of news, various messages from public figures, reader opinion, some random tweets, and a journalist getting frustrated when trying to get through to NHS communication team (and/or local/regional Clinical Commissioning Group). With some info thrown in about a study that said incubation could even be up to 24 days. Oh and this image of tomorrows front page.
> 
> ...



I wrote and taught a uni module (STS) on Science, Society and the Media so have some idea of the literature.

The message management locally seems pretty grim, but tbh you need precisely zero expertise to see that.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

I suppose I will continue to read their live pages for however many days they keep doing them, to see if the mix changes.

Their live page for today has now ended, with a final dollop, quoting this tory councillor.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 10, 2020)

1,013 deaths recorded now. 103 more in the last 24hrs. Recorded infections seem to be slowing. I doubt these figures give a very full picture of the situation.


----------



## elbows (Feb 10, 2020)

Perhaps it would be reasonable to suggest that the state of local media in this country is not well suited to the challenge of communication on these issues. At least if we remain in a phase where so many of the concerns are focussed on a particular location and very limited numbers of cases, and the idea of containment.

Having said that, they arent really being given much to work with. In that there is no wonderful new certainty ready to be disclosed that will help, no great new measures up their sleeves that might reassure people. And the current UK advice runs the risk of suddenly ending up too far behind the curve. Not just advice, but diagnostic criteria etc, which still has a 'have they travelled to certain countries or had contact with known cases' at its heart. Which, on a day like today, leads some people to start asking whether Brighton needs to be added to the list of locations. Awkward moments ahead, when is the right moment to transition to a different phase? Maybe it will happen quickly, but if cases are only found intermittently then maybe things will drag on like they are now for a while, in which case issues of trust may build up alarmingly.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its worse than that.


That'd be agaist the Geneva Convention.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> Had a quick look, seems more likely to be done under the Health and Social Care Act 2008, and the ability it grants the Secretary of State to make 'health protection regulations'. I havent read up on this properly yet, I will.



So it looks like that act included a bit which modified the Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984. Section 2A of this 1984 act has the tedious detail.

Here is the matching language detail.

Government announcement:



> In accordance with Regulation 3, the Secretary of State declares that the incidence or transmission of novel Coronavirus constitutes *a serious and imminent threat to public health*, and the measures outlined in these regulations are considered as an effective means of delaying or preventing further transmission of the virus.
> 
> In accordance with Regulation 2, the Secretary of State designates Arrowe Park Hospital and Kents Hill Park as an “isolation” facility and Wuhan and Hubei province as an “infected area”.



( from Secretary of State makes new regulations on Coronavirus )

Bits from the 1984 act:



> 45C Health protection regulations: domestic
> (1)The appropriate Minister may by regulations make provision for the purpose of preventing, protecting against, controlling or providing a public health response to the incidence or spread of infection or contamination in England and Wales (whether from risks originating there or elsewhere).





> (3)Regulations under subsection (1) may in particular include provision—
> 
> (c)imposing or enabling the imposition of restrictions or requirements on or in relation to persons, things or premises in the event of, or in response to, a threat to public health.





> (4)The restrictions or requirements mentioned in subsection (3)(c) include in particular—
> 
> (d)a special restriction or requirement.





> (6)For the purposes of this Part—
> 
> (a)a “ special restriction or requirement ” means a restriction or requirement which can be imposed by a justice of the peace by virtue of section 45G(2), 45H(2) or 45I(2)





> 45D
> (4)Regulations under section 45C may not include provision enabling the imposition of a special restriction or requirement unless—
> 
> (a)the regulations are made in response to *a serious and imminent threat to public health*, or
> ...





> 45G Power to order health measures in relation to persons
> (1)A justice of the peace may make an order under subsection (2) in relation to a person (“P”) if the justice is satisfied that—
> (a)P is or may be infected or contaminated,
> (b)the infection or contamination is one which presents or could present significant harm to human health,
> ...



( from Public Health (Control of Disease) Act 1984 )

I'm not going to quote all the other relevant bits, so much detail is missing from this post. 45H and 45I are similar to the stuff relating to persons, but applying to things and premises. So the 'serious and imminent threat to human health' language used on Monday does indeed unlock the ability of justices of the peace to make orders relating to people, places and things. I havent read it all thoroughly but it looks like the various powers in this act can compel people to be isolated, quarantined, undergo medical examination, and various other things, but people cannot be compelled to undergo medical treatment or vaccination under these powers. If I read it properly then any 'new crimes' created under these powers cannot be punished by prison, but rather fines. And if its a quarantine/isolation order then there is the power for police to take the person to the appropriate location.


----------



## bimble (Feb 11, 2020)

Little bit of good news:
The three suspected cases (known of) in the Indian city i'm headed to  - have all tested negative after being kept in isolation.
There are people infected in Kerela.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> Perhaps it would be reasonable to suggest that the state of local media in this country is not well suited to the challenge of communication on these issues.



More than reasonable TBF, resources have been cut to the bone, I haven't kept up to date on numbers at The Argus, but it's a fraction of what it was, compared to when I worked for the company. About 12 years ago it was still selling around 32,000 copies a day, it's a little over 9,000 now, and the increase in digital advertising revenue is tiny compared to lost print revenue, cover price & advertising.



elbows said:


> Coronavirus LIVE updates as five cases confirmed in Brighton
> 
> 
> We are providing live updates after four new coronavirus cases were confirmed in Brighton.
> ...



From that link:


> *Latest from the University of Sussex tonight*
> Sussex students are restricted to their dorms cuz of coronavirus i need to get tf outta here ASAP



Turns out a student has been quarantined after falling ill with suspected coronavirus, they have been tested, but results are not known/published yet. Let's hope they come back negative.

The West Sussex County Times is also reporting that emergency treatment pods have been set up at hospitals across Sussex to assess people presenting with coronavirus.


----------



## rookwood (Feb 11, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> More than reasonable TBF, resources have been cut to the bone, I haven't kept up to date on numbers at The Argus, but it's a fraction of what it was, compared to when I worked for the company. About 12 years ago it was still selling around 32,000 copies a day, it's a little over 9,000 now, and the increase in digital advertising revenue is tiny compared to lost print revenue, cover price & advertising.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Think the West Sussex County Times are filling a little there - there was an official NHS directive last week to set up pods at all hospitals. It’s not just a Sussex thing. Not to downplay what’s going on in Brighton/Sussex, but it’s not something that was just done in response to this specific set of cases.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 11, 2020)

Philippines encourages cancellation of large crowd events.

*








						Avoid organizing events that draw huge crowds, DOH tells public
					

The Department of Health (DOH) on Monday discouraged the public from organizing or joining events that draw huge crowds in a bid to contain the spread of the 2019-novel coronavirus.




					news.mb.com.ph
				



*
Many places now saying avoid travel to Singapore.









						Coronavirus: South Korea, Israel advise citizens to defer travel to Singapore
					

SINGAPORE: South Korea and Israel have told their citizens to defer travel to Singapore due to the novel coronavirus epidemic, while Indonesia and Taiwan have recommended that precautions be taken when visiting the island.Travel advisories have also been issued by




					www.channelnewsasia.com


----------



## bimble (Feb 11, 2020)

Opinion | The Cow Dung Cure for Coronavirus
					

Indian nationalists peddle something worse than snake oil.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> 1,013 deaths recorded now. 103 more in the last 24hrs. Recorded infections seem to be slowing. I doubt these figures give a very full picture of the situation.



The 'recorded infections seem to be slowing' stuff has certainly gained traction in the press today.

I have to ignore this trend until the reality is clearer. On the one hand its been some weeks since the lockdown measures, and those measures would certainly be expected to rob the virus of many potential candidates for infection. But on the other hand some models have tended to suggest a peak or plateau to come much later in February, not now.

And then there is the question of whether China has changed the criteria for reporting, and this is what is showing up in the stats, not a real phenomenon. I wanted to talk about this yesterday but there was some confusion about the exact nature of the changes. But since there press attention to the 'possible good news' today, I should at least make a passing reference to it.

eg this from Guardian live updates page:


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows  - with such a widespread epidemic I’m really surprised to hear they are testing “people who show no symptoms”. I’d expected them to already be well beyond the point of having capacity to test all those who are showing symptoms!

By the way, I heard from the organiser of the trade show in Amsterdam which I was meant to be attending this week that 70 exhibitors have withdrawn, 50 of them Chinese companies. It remains to be seen how many visitors will have reached the same conclusion as me and decided not to risk international travel this week, but 70 exhibitors pulling out at the last minute from a total of around 1,300 companies exhibiting is unprecedented.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

On the Brighton front, I see that the so-called 'super-spreader' has been named and has given a public statement, and a 2nd surgery is closed. But I will continue where I left off, this time via the Guardians live updates page ( Coronavirus live updates: two senior Hubei officials sacked as deaths pass 1,000 – latest news ).


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 11, 2020)

The 'super-spreader' from Hove has spoken out, so his name is out there now, which should help tracing people he's been in contact with.

What seems odd is that he claims to have fully recovered, despite only being quarantined in hospital for a few days & still there, whereas reports from China suggest recovery takes a number of weeks.









						Coronavirus: UK businessman linked to virus cases speaks out
					

Steve Walsh, linked to 11 cases in the UK, France and Majorca, says his thoughts are with other patients.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> elbows  - with such a widespread epidemic I’m really surprised to hear they are testing “people who show no symptoms”. I’d expected them to already be well beyond the point of having capacity to test all those who are showing symptoms!



I'd expect an uneven picture. But certainly one that includes testing some people with no symptoms, because I would expect some tests due to 'contact tracing' of people confirmed infected, and ongoing testing of people who ended up quarantined for various reasons. But there is no way for me to get a proper picture, so another reason not to take the stats literally.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 11, 2020)

Ok, well if they are still contact tracing with 40k infections then my respect for the Chinese just took another jump upwards!


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Ok, well if they are still contact tracing with 40k infections then my respect for the Chinese just took another jump upwards!



I expect it to be patchy, but it probably is still happening, especially in places that didnt have a full on outbreak like Wuhan did yet. 

Also depending on the symptoms criteria listed for this coronavirus, some people showing 'no symptoms' could still be showing some, just not 'the right ones'. I dont know, but even in an ideal world I would take these numbers with a pinch of salt. They might be showing a real trend, but that will only be obvious and safe knowledge to me with the benefit of hindsight.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> What seems odd is that he claims to have fully recovered, despite only being quarantined in hospital for a few days & still there, whereas reports from China suggest recovery takes a number of weeks.



Would expect recovery time to be a spectrum. Especially with milder cases that do not have a deterioration phase after the first week+ of feeling ill. We dont know how ill this bloke got, probably not very, he was after all hospitalised upon testing positive, as opposed to being hospitalised due to some perilous state of health.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

The idea of people being infectious before showing any symptoms never really went away, even though it remains mostly based on anecdotal evidence, the anecdotes kept coming. My own view is unchanged from last time we discussed this, I consider it plausible, and confusion about it is in part due to a failure to explore this possibility more with other infections historically. Probably in part because there is a natural bias towards things it is practical to detect and do something about.



> Dr Griffin added that while it hasn’t been confirmed clinically yet, there is more and more anecdotal evidence to suggest the virus can be passed on prior to the onset of symptoms.



(from Guardian live page in an entry that mostly attempts to clarify the term super-spreader. Coronavirus live updates: two senior Hubei officials sacked as deaths pass 1,000 – latest news )


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

There has been some talk recently that there might be a high rate of false nagatives with one of the tests, but I never found good detail.

However this incident in the US could be a further sign of that:









						CDC and hospital errors led to US coronavirus patient being sent back to military base, health official says | CNN
					

Errors by a hospital in San Diego and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention led to a woman with the novel coronavirus being sent back to Marine Corps Air Station Miramar instead of isolation at the hospital, according to a health official familiar with the situation.




					edition.cnn.com
				






> After an initial CDC test showed all four patients did not have the novel coronavirus, they were released Sunday and returned to the 14-day federal quarantine at Miramar, the University of California, San Diego Health said in a statement.
> "This morning, CDC officials advised San Diego Public Health that further testing revealed that one of the four patients tested positive for (novel coronavirus)," UC San Diego Health said in a statement. "The confirmed positive patient was returned to UC San Diego Health for observation and isolation until cleared by the CDC for release."


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

And on the 'symptomless spreaders' topic, part of the 'super-spreaders' statement might blow up this subject like never before:









						Coronavirus 'super-spreader' says he's recovered as he breaks silence
					

Businessman says he had no symptoms before diagnosis  He is still in quarantine in a London hospital Follow our live updates on the coronavirus HERE Who are coronavirus super-spreaders and how do they spread the virus?




					www.standard.co.uk
				






> I was advised to attend an isolated room at hospital, despite *showing no symptoms*, and subsequently self-isolated at home as instructed.


----------



## Spandex (Feb 11, 2020)

I just got this text from the doctors:

If you have symptoms of a cough, fever or shortness of breath and have recently returned from a South East Asian country, DO NOT COME TO THE SURGERY, instead call NHS 111


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 11, 2020)

So it’s “Covid-19”









						Coronavirus disease named Covid-19
					

Researchers had been calling for an official name to avoid confusion around the virus.



					www.bbc.com
				




Catchy.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 11, 2020)

Corvid-19?


----------



## sheothebudworths (Feb 11, 2020)

I work in the kitchen at a school in Brighton. 
We have, today, been given hand sanitiser to use (on top of the normal handwashing) but that seems a bit lame when we have a cashless system, using fingerprints, for the kids (and in addition to that, they quite often don't work unless the kids blow on their finger first*). 

I have mentioned this several times today, not in any mental, panic-stricken way, just quietly a bit... erm HELLO!  but it seems to have been largely ignored/played down (in favour of not panicking, I guess).
My manager told me she had suggested they santize the kids hands at the tills but that there was no way of ensuring that was done but the SLT member I spoke to was very upbeat/dismissive about the whole thing - that we should just be taking guidance from PHE, comparisons to flu/some stuff about people with weakened immune systems, which is not what seems to follow, neccesarily, going on the info from this thread - and I get that they don't want to scare anyone, particularly kids, but I'm also a bit wtf about it all, too. 



*I quite often SUGGEST they do that  although obvs not right now!


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

Spandex said:


> I just got this text from the doctors:
> 
> If you have symptoms of a cough, fever or shortness of breath and have recently returned from a South East Asian country, DO NOT COME TO THE SURGERY, instead call NHS 111



Yeah thats the standard message everywhere really, but some will be feeling the need to shout about it more than others right now!

eg when it was misreported in the press that the 'super-spreader' had turned up at A&E for help, the NHS went out of their way to point out that wasnt what happened, and to praise it as an example of what people should do.





__





						NHS England » Statement from NHS England and NHS Improvement on Coronavirus
					






					www.england.nhs.uk
				






> *Professor Keith Willett, NHS strategic incident director*, said: “This patient did the right thing when they had concerns about coronavirus by calling NHS 111 for advice.
> 
> “After a telephone assessment, they were advised to make their way to Royal Sussex County Hospital Brighton for testing. Following a pre-arranged plan with the NHS they drove themselves to the hospital, were tested in isolation and away from public areas of the hospital, and returned home in isolation in their own car.
> 
> “Any travellers from China and the other specified countries who have a cough, fever, or shortness of breath are advised to follow the example of this patient and call NHS 111 for advice.”



And for quite some time now, advice to GPs etc was that if someone turned up who fitted the initial criteria, they should be ushered into a side room and asked to call 111 on their mobile phone. 

And hospitals were asked to have their 'pod' areas where cases could be isolated ready by last Friday I think it was.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> So it’s “Covid-19”
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It sounds more like the sort of thing I'd be hearing about if I was reading up on a nuclear disaster. 'The half-life of Covid-19 is 128 years, and prior to the knokitov treaty it contaminated a large part of the globe via the very fissile missile program test detonations'.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Feb 11, 2020)

Further to that, I've just had an email from my daughter's school to say that someone there has been put in self-isolation (not specifying whether it's an adult or a child, fwiw - and I do understand the difference between self-isolation and being diagnosed etc)  - that the PHE guidance still remains the same, that the risk is low, but that they would also allow it as authorised absence if parents decide not to send their children (which is like, unheard of, lol). What does THAT mean? Essentially, it should be ok but actually we're not taking responsibility if it's not?

Separately, the council are releasing a statement shortly, apparently.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> I work in the kitchen at a school in Brighton.
> We have, today, been given hand sanitiser to use (on top of the normal handwashing) but that seems a bit lame when we have a cashless system, using fingerprints, for the kids (and in addition to that, they quite often don't work unless the kids blow on their finger first*).
> 
> I have mentioned this several times today, not in any mental, panic-stricken way, just quietly a bit... erm HELLO!  but it seems to have been largely ignored/played down (in favour of not panicking, I guess).
> ...



I wish I was surprised to hear of this frustrating and difficult, disempowering situation.

There are grotesque inconsistencies in terms of official attitude towards risks from surface contamination. And people such as yourself are not encouraged to spot the obvious vectors and then bloody well do something about it. There are just extremes of reaction or inaction, and banal generalised advice in response to your concerns.

Its a shame it is this way, not just because of the actual impact on disease spread, but also the psychological point of view. People tend to feel better when they feel there is something they can do themselves to help. And, along with poor information quality or timing, background existing lack of trust in authorities, and a whole bunch of other stuff, failures on this front contribute to panic and low morale.

Anyway, people spot the inconsistencies and lose faith. For example one of the questions in Brighton right now seems to be why they have cleaned the doctors surgery but not the pub, stuff like that.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Further to that, I've just had an email from my daughter's school to say that someone there has been put in self-isolation - that the PHE guidance still remains the same, that the risk is low, but that they would also allow it as authorised absence if parents decide not to send their children (which is like, unheard of, lol). What does THAT mean? Essentially, it should be ok but actually we're not taking responsibility if it's not?
> 
> Separately, the council are releasing a statement shortly, apparently.



Some specific people might have to take responsibility for specific failures at some point. But nobody is going to take responsibility for people catching this disease in general.

There has been some concern that the public health message globally and in China so far, having focussed so much on the possibility of containment of this disease, will cause a loss of faith in authorities if/when it becomes obvious that containment has failed. So we are still in an awkward moment on this front, where people still hope to avoid wider spread and obviously hope to avoid themselves and their families getting it, and contacts of known cases are being traced, leading to specific local fears. But at the same time the 'dont panic, wash your hands etc' message is in place and really does apply to both this stage, and a future stage where containment is not on the agenda any more, just attempts to slow and reduce overall spread.

What that message means is what it looks like, the are giving you a small nugget of info and letting you make your own call on what to do about it. Their advice is completely constrained by following the national template message, there isnt really room for deviation from the standard advice, and it will only change when the government/heath services decide to change it. So in most cases officialdom will be reduced to parroting exactly the same thing. The info could be better, eg if the exact timing of events relating to the person under self-isolation were known, maybe it would be slightly easier to judge the risk. But since there are so many unknowns or broad ranges with this virus, certainties would still be rather hard to come by.

I dont know what decision I would make in that situation myself. If a wider outbreak was completely inevitable then I'd probably be somewhat content to risk me and my family catching it earlier on, before the health services were overloaded. If it were likely to be contained and never more than a limited outbreak, I'd obviously be rather keen for us all to avoid it completely.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 11, 2020)

I've decided I'm avoiding people and not going anywhere. So no change there then  

I'll be hopefully following the progress of vaccines though.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 11, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I've decided I'm avoiding people and not going anywhere. So no change there then
> 
> I'll be hopefully following the progress of vaccines though.


 Good luck with that. I think I read it takes months to design them and to get through testing and ready to deploy is over a year. No way will this thing not have reached everywhere before a vaccine comes out.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows Christ, that last line is stark and depressing but I get it.
My workplace has long been demoralising and shit, btw, so that's nothing new but yeah, no less frustrating - I think they could largely accomodate the kids who may feel very anxious, while also spreading some short (?) term better hygiene practise etc.
My worry is never, ever just about me and mine, fwiw - it's just equally worrying that they're putting in measures which are plainly pointless while they ignore the bigger issues, while at the same time relinquishing any responsibility but allowing parents to make their own decisions - very confusing.
It's irritated me for a long time that the work culture and very definitely the culture at schools, too, along with financial punishments to schools for absences etc, has been shtty about taking time off for illness (and therefore spreading it all over) but right now it's pissing me off more than ever before.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 11, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> I work in the kitchen at a school in Brighton.
> We have, today, been given hand sanitiser to use (on top of the normal handwashing) but that seems a bit lame when we have a cashless system, using fingerprints, for the kids (and in addition to that, they quite often don't work unless the kids blow on their finger first*).
> 
> I have mentioned this several times today, not in any mental, panic-stricken way, just quietly a bit... erm HELLO!  but it seems to have been largely ignored/played down (in favour of not panicking, I guess).
> ...



Fingerprinting kids for dinner?!

What does you data protection officer have to say about that? Who’s fucking bright idea was that?


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 11, 2020)

Sorry it’s been a long day.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Feb 11, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Fingerprinting kids for dinner?!
> 
> What does you data protection officer have to say about that? Who’s fucking bright idea was that?



It's very standard in schools now...





__





						Biometrics in schools - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> elbows Christ, that last line is stark and depressing but I get it.



Its not supposed to be insanely depressing, because it is supposed to sit hand in hand with the idea that large numbers of people will eventually catch this illness but wont even realise they've had it, or will only have a rather mild illness. Although I wouldnt push that idea too far either, because I could still make that claim and have it be true even if rather large numbers of people were also getting seriously ill or dying. Anyway this sort of carries on into next point....



> My worry is never, ever just about me and mine, fwiw - it's just equally worrying that they're putting in measures which are plainly pointless while they ignore the bigger issues, while at the same time relinquishing any responsibility but allowing parents to make their own decisions - very confusing.



This ties in to why I keep saying we are at an awkward moment. One of the reasons we dont bother with some of these measures when its another illness like flu, is that engaging in an immense response tends to rather quickly end up showing the absurd futility of the situation, the huge gaps, the failure to take ideas and measures to their natural conclusion.



> It's irritated me for a long time that the work culture and very definitely the culture at schools, too, along with financial punishments to schools for absences etc, has been shtty about taking time off for illness (and therefore spreading it all over) but right now it's pissing me off more than ever before.



Yeah all that I'm saying applies to the huge contradictions in attitude on this front too. I wondered if there might be a more permanent change to attitudes after a flu pandemic, but in the end the death rate of the H1N1 swine flu was not sufficient to change attitudes even during the first waves of the pandemic, never mind later on. The same could happen with Covid-19 given some more time, or it might remain a very grim and different picture which renders a fair chunk of what I've been saying in recent posts irrelevant.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 11, 2020)

Someone today said they didn't know what the fuss was about because this is no worse than ordinary flu. And they were a smoker. I think more than 50,000 infected and more than 1,000 dead, just in China, makes this rather more significant than the flu.

And make no mistake it is coming to Britain, and everywhere else, I wonder what the global infection and fatality rate will be in a month's time?


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 11, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> It's very standard in schools now...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This is not directed at you but Lemming Policy is not justification. It’s a protected characteristic and biometrics are problematic in other ways. Its distgusting. ID cards are what should be used. This world is fucked.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> It's very standard in schools now...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



If that sort of thing were in use anywhere I had some control over, I might try to focus on cleaning the surface in between each use, rather than the hands touching it, if it were in any way more practical.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> If that sort of thing were in use anywhere I had some control over, I might try to focus on cleaning the surface in between each use, rather than the hands touching it, if it were in any way more practical.




or just abandoning its use for two or three or longer months ...


----------



## Cid (Feb 11, 2020)

I can't even begin to imagine how you'd keep a school open and restrict the spread of germs within it. Just so many potential contact points.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 11, 2020)

So, what about the 2 UK prisoners? Does this mean  the cat is fully out of the bag? Or...adjusts tinfoil cap...is this Porton Down doing an experiment on what theyd perceive as disposables


----------



## sheothebudworths (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> If that sort of thing were in use anywhere I had some control over, I might try to focus on cleaning the surface in between each use, rather than the hands touching it, if it were in any way more practical.



Yep - germ factory, for sure - absolutely _no way_ it'll get cleaned with each use - it's _hundreds_ of kids coming through 5 tills, during short periods. The alternative is to look them each up, manually, which takes far longer, too.
There was no hand cleaning, let alone anything else, done on the till I was working by today, either (not sure what happened elsewhere but I expect it was the same).

The BHCC council press briefing was apparently just the council leaders holding up those 'Catch it, bin it, kill it' signs.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Someone today said they didn't know what the fuss was about because this is no worse than ordinary flu. And they were a smoker. I think more than 50,000 infected and more than 1,000 dead, just in China, *makes this rather more significant than the flu.*



Too early to say, it's getting loads of media attention because it's new, flu rarely gets in the news despite the fact that annual flu epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290.000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths per year.

Source - WHO


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 11, 2020)

we


cupid_stunt said:


> Too early to say, it's getting loads of media attention because it's new, flu rarely gets in the news despite the fact that annual flu epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 290.000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths per year.
> 
> Source - WHO



We covered this some pages back. Seasonal flu kills a much smaller percentage than the current figures of Coronavirus.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> So it’s “Covid-19”
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I forgot to say earlier that I am glad about this bit:



> "We had to find a name that did not refer to a geographical location, an animal, an individual or group of people, and which is also pronounceable and related to the disease," the WHO chief said.
> 
> "Having a name matters to prevent the use of other names that can be inaccurate or stigmatising. It also gives us a standard format to use for any future coronavirus outbreaks."



I'm glad I wasnt around in the days when flu pandemics tended to be widely named after a place. eg the 1968 H3N2 flu pandemic was 'Hong Kong flu', 1957 H2N2 was 'Asian flu'. Mexico was strongly associated with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic origins, but early detections were also in the USA and the swine aspect of it made it easy to involve an animal name for that one.

Speaking of the H1N1 pandemic, although initial UK cases were found only sporadically to start with, and it was a number of months till an outbreak really got going here, attitudes were a bit different compared to this coronavirus from the start. Mostly because within days of the H1N1 first being properly revealed, the WHO publicly concluded that containment was not a realistic option. So although there was an early emphasis on trying to reduce the spread, there wasnt really quite the same sense of attempting containment and detection of every case like there is at the moment with UK Covid-19 infections.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 11, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Good luck with that. I think I read it takes months to design them and to get through testing and ready to deploy is over a year. No way will this thing not have reached everywhere before a vaccine comes out.



I can stay in for over a year


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> We covered this some pages back. Seasonal flu kills a much smaller percentage than the current figures of Coronavirus.



But also note that the current figures dont mean that much, so for now I have not settled on any real sense of how Covid-19 death rates will end up comparing to flu.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 11, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> we
> 
> 
> We covered this some pages back. Seasonal flu kills a much smaller percentage than the current figures of Coronavirus.



We did, but it's worth repeating, severe cases of flu result in around 1% deaths, the current death rate of severe cases of Covid -19 is estimated at around 2-3%, but many experts expect that percentage figure to drop.

So, it's more on a par with flu, than SARS (10%) & MERS (30%+).


----------



## sihhi (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> I forgot to say earlier that I am glad about this bit:
> 
> I'm glad I wasnt around in the days when flu pandemics tended to be widely named after a place. eg the 1968 H3N2 flu pandemic was 'Hong Kong flu', 1957 H2N2 was 'Asian flu'. Mexico was strongly associated with the 2009 H1N1 pandemic origins, but early detections were also in the USA and the swine aspect of it made it easy to involve an animal name for that one.



China even banned Mexican travellers to China in 2009. I am fully in favour of closing off all air travel, if only because coming from China to here means going from high infection control to low infection control. Another part of me senses that it's too late, say goodbye to loved ones now.

One contact has told me their friend's brother and mother have both died in Hubei.

Weibo has an interview with Beijing virology professor explaining that for this coronavirus 2 secs is enough for transfer if host has a high load, otherwise 15 seconds.

Weibo has stories of whole families dying, leaving only children.

Other Weibo highlights are still no beds for people in Wuhan, desperate appeals for any slot being retweeted.

Plus some charity organisations receiving elderly people's entire life savings to buy medical equipment etc.

Some patients with symptoms get DNA tested again and again up to 5 times before a positive result, so some patients were sent back home after a negative result.

One of the construction workers on the new Wuhan hospital from another province discovered he was infected when he returned home.

One guy was cleaning worker on the railways and didn't know he was infected and rode on loads and loads of busy trains in all directions back and forth throughout the Chinese spring festival period before infection control was properly instituted.

One Hong Kong family had a family meal around and all 8 are now infected.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> So, what about the 2 UK prisoners? Does this mean  the cat is fully out of the bag? Or...adjusts tinfoil cap...is this Porton Down doing an experiment on what theyd perceive as disposables



We are still only at the stage where people are going to be detected if they have recently travelled to certain countries, or show up as a contact of another known case. And its a big mistake to think about prisoners as some monolithic population that have all been locked up for ages.

There is not enough info about the prison stuff yet, and a positive test result has not been declared, but if the one piece of info I got is accurate then the reasons this one has shown up is travel related (probably combined with symptoms but thats just a complete guess by me):









						Coronavirus at Bullingdon - Two people being tested
					

Prisoners at HMP Bullingdon are being tested for coronavirus.




					www.oxfordmail.co.uk
				






> 'A source told the Oxford Mail this morning that prisoners were told about the tests today, with one of the prisoners suspected to have the virus having recently been in Thailand'


----------



## blameless77 (Feb 11, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> It's very standard in schools now...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Same in our kids’ school (south london)


----------



## Supine (Feb 11, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> We did, but it's worth repeating, severe cases of flu result in around 1% deaths, the current death rate of severe cases of Covid -19 is estimated at around 2-3%, but many experts expect that percentage figure to drop.
> 
> So, it's more on a par with flu, than SARS (10%) & MERS (30%+).



It's not directly comparable as global impact is a function of death rate, transmittability and mutation plus probably other factors like seasonal variation. We don't have enough data yet to compare impacts of different diseases.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 11, 2020)

Supine said:


> It's not directly comparable as global impact is a function of death rate, transmittability and mutation plus probably other factors like seasonal variation. We don't have enough data yet to compare impacts of different diseases.



Indeed, hence why I posted it's 'too early to say'. 

There's too many scaremongering posts appearing on here, at present there's no reason to worry in the UK.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 11, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> We did, but it's worth repeating, severe cases of flu result in around 1% deaths, the current death rate of severe cases of Covid -19 is estimated at around 2-3%, but many experts expect that percentage figure to drop.
> 
> So, it's more on a par with flu, than SARS (10%) & MERS (30%+).



You missed the key point “severe cases of flu” and irresponsibly tagged “severe” onto Coronavirus.

Out of all recorded cases of Coronavirus the mortality is just over 2%. You are not comparing it to all cases of seasonal flu.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 11, 2020)

Seasonal flu last year killed 0.05% of cases according to the CDC. The current mortality rate for Coronavirus is over 40 times that.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 11, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Seasonal flu last year killed 0.05% of cases according to the CDC. The current mortality rate for Coronavirus is over 40 times that.


Interesting, I was going to accept 1 - 3 three times more for the mortality rate, but 40 is much more than that.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

I suppose how much to worry is a combination of your own circumstances, personality, your opinion of the facts and unknown aspects, and whether you have or feel any personal connection to people or places that are telling some of the worring stories of this outbreak.

My own preferred method for coping psychologically is that I come to terms with an absolute worst case doom scenario for me and my loved ones. And that actually frees me up to get on with living, it no longer obscures the other broader and more likely spectrum of possibilities that dont involve death. For if by any chance the worst case happen, well I've already come to terms with it and not wasted whats left of mine of a loved ones life fretting needlessly about it. Granted this may be a lot easier to pull off if you've already come to terms with the illusions of security, and the temporary nature of all things that matter to us.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Interesting, I was going to accept 1 - 3 three times more for the mortality rate, but 40 is much more than that.



Note that 2% is likely to come down but probably not by much.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Note that 2% is likely to come down but probably not by much.



Why probably not by much?

Would you really be surprised if it fell to 0.2% or 0.02%? Why?


----------



## Cid (Feb 11, 2020)

Word from my friends still studying at Chinese universities is that their courses are all moving online for the time being. I'll note that my friends are specifically foreign students, and I think their degrees are targeted at foreigners (though they are taught in Chinese, and they are proper degree courses), so not sure how this applies generally. Lectures are going to be delivered by app/website and there's (unsurprisingly) no word on when they'll be expected back on campus.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

By the way, to continue the talk about UK-related confirmed cases that showed little in the way of symptoms. The British honeymooner who tested positive said at the time that he didnt really have any symptoms , and subsequently said on facebook that 'I am in a isolation room and have become there lab rat as doctor confused as I have no symptoms and tests all say I am healthy apart from having virus xxx'. And I dont think his condition changed much after that as he is now hoping to get out of the hospital towards the end of the week.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 11, 2020)

I'm not overly alarmed by the situation in the UK, but we have a few cases here now and it does seem very infectious.

It is slightly worrying that I don't think we know how soon after someone starts incubating the virus before they will be detected by a test. If people can be incubating the virus without being detected by tests then potentially there is a problem.  I am talking about the period before the person gets symptoms.

Also we are hearing about people contracting the virus outside of China in places like Singapore and Thailand which if we are to believe reports have hardly any cases.  As we are seeing people contracting the virus from Thailand and Singapore it does seem as if the reports cannot be right.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> Why probably not by much?
> 
> Would you really be surprised if it fell to 0.2% or 0.02%? Why?



Expectation management. I’d prefer to work with the info to hand rather than go down the road allowing irresponsible speculation. I have spent most of my working day in meetings establishing a common understanding and mitigating myths. I’ve heard shocking things come out of very senior managers that their opinion formed from social media may well kill. I dont work in a typical environment. There’s high risk all over.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

One of the reasons I dont take the 2% figure seriously is the following lesson from the past. Although I also have to guard against the relatively mild eventual outcome of H1N1 2009 pandemic making me complacent. We wont always be so lucky.



> The highest case fatality risk estimates were observed in Argentina,30, 42 Mexico,20, 42 and Colombia.18All of these studies reported case fatality risks among laboratory-confirmed cases. Apart from differences in case definition, it is not clear why estimates during the early stage of the pandemic were so high in Mexico (ranging from 100 to 5,580 deaths per 100,000)





> There is very substantial heterogeneity in published estimates of case fatality risk for H1N1pdm09, ranging from <1 to >10,000 per 100,000 infections (Figure 3). Large differences were associated with the choice of case definition (denominator). Because influenza virus infections are typically mild and self-limiting, and a substantial proportion of infections are subclinical and do not require medical attention, it is challenging to enumerate all symptomatic cases or infections.





> In 2009, some of the earliest available information on fatality risk was provided by estimates based primarily on confirmed cases. However, because most H1N1pdm09 infections were not laboratory-confirmed, the estimates based on confirmed cases were up to 500 times higher than those based on symptomatic cases or infections (Figure 3). The consequent uncertainty about the case fatality risk — and hence about the severity of H1N1pdm09 — was problematic for risk assessment and risk communication during the period when many decisions about control and mitigation measures were being made.



From Case fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1pdm09): a systematic review


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 11, 2020)

I get it. However, I’m very conscious of the large number of people who may be reading this that are not nerds and cannot be expected to see the nuance. They are likely to want clear info and do not have the time to unpick long winded complex info.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 11, 2020)

I reiterate, its been a long day so, apologies for the lack of cheer.


----------



## Supine (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> One of the reasons I dont take the 2% figure seriously is the following lesson from the past. Although I also have to guard against the relatively mild eventual outcome of H1N1 2009 pandemic making me complacent. We wont always be so lucky.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I don't see how you can use that for any comparison tbh. Your just overlaying your predjuduces and a bit of knowledge to decide on an answer. Wait and see is the only real guide.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

Supine said:


> I don't see how you can use that for any comparison tbh. Your just overlaying your predjuduces and a bit of knowledge to decide on an answer. Wait and see is the only real guide.



Eh? I havent decided on an answer. My whole point is that the early estimates from first outbreak countries such as Mexico in relation to swine flu were a poor guide as to the actual mortality rate. Im just bringing it up as another reason why I dont base my thinking on the initial 2% number thats been waved around in recent weeks. Its just a more detailed version of 'wait and see is the only real guide', its just an example of why the waiting bit is necessary!

If I've accidentally said something that made it sound like I actually expect the mortality rate to fall to something specific and low like 0.02% then I'm sorry, that isnt what I meant at all. What my point in regards this bit was supposed to be, is that the order of magnitude of the mortality rate can change over time, there is no reason to think that any shift could only be small. It might end up only being a small shift, but it could be a large one, and I have no reason to favour one of these possibilities more or less than the other!


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> I get it. However, I’m very conscious of the large number of people who may be reading this that are not nerds and cannot be expected to see the nuance. They are likely to want clear info and do not have the time to unpick long winded complex info.



I understand the need for clear info but I have absolutely no intention of giving the 2% figure any credibility if it makes people looking for a clear and simple picture think that 2 out of every 100 people who catch Covid-19 will die.

There are several reasons why I dont go down this route. A big one is because I dont have to, there are plenty of other sources for that sort of thing if thats the sort of info people want, just skip my shit. Another big one is that I watched a bunch of credible nuclear experts on television delivering their nice, safe, tidy messages in the first days after the woes at the nuclear plant began. Then one of the buildings suffered a hydrogen explosion and some of those experts became instantly useless in the field of public communication about Fukushima, because this eventuality was not covered by the picture they painted. I also saw people mocking the earlier mortality rates given for swine flu, once it became clear that the reality differend by several orders of magnitude. 

Well, I feel bound to try to say things that avoid going down such a dead end myself. After all, I am likely to still be talking about this subject long after most people have lost interest. And most of my waffle is of even less use if I've blown my credibility with oversimplifications. If I am ever of any use at all, its by trying to describe the picture as I see it, even if such a process is tedious, occasionally alarming, not to some peoples tastes, treads on a few toes, and I do it with relish, with little regard for whether I come across at times as a bloated and pompous, arrogant imposter.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows the shift can be up aswell as down,

Here is a translation from under investigation Prof. Xu Zhangrun which went around on Weibo before being banned, 









						Viral Alarm: When Fury Overcomes Fear
					

Overnight, the country found itself in the grip of a devastating crisis; fear was stalking the land. The authorities proved themselves to be at a loss and the cost of their behavior was soon visited upon the common people. Before long, the coronavirus was reaching around the globe and the...




					www.chinafile.com
				




_We are funding the countless locusts—large and small—whose continued existence depends on a totalitarian system. The storied bureaucratic apparatus that is responsible for the unfettered outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan repeatedly hid or misrepresented the facts about the dire nature of the crisis. The dilatory actions of bureaucrats at every level exacerbated the urgency of the situation. Their behavior reflects a complete lack of interest in the welfare and lives of normal people. All that matters is constant support for the self-indulgent celebratory behavior of the “Core Leader” whose favor is sought through adulation of the peerless achievements of the system. Within this self-regarding bureaucracy there is even less interest in the role that this country and its people play in a globally interconnected community._

The song Let the People Sing from Les Mis the musical is also now inaccessible in both English and French versions, because it trended so much on Weibo.

Lots of infected nurses and doctors

_While the government has reported individual cases of health care workers becoming infected, it has not provided the full picture, and the sources said doctors and nurses had been told not to make the total public.

But the doctor warned that the situation may be worse in other cities in Hubei province and said he had heard that many health care workers in the neighbouring city of Ezhou had been infected.
Hospital clusters have also been reported in different parts of the country. In the island province of Hainan, the local health commission said a doctor and nurse had become infected after being exposed to a patient for six minutes even though they were wearing masks.

In Fuxing hospital in Beijing, six medical staff, five patients and four caretakers were reportedly infected by a patient. A source said the hospital’s president Li Dongxia had been sacked as a result._


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

Well yes there are factors that could make it go up. I dont think I will delve into them much unless there is any sign of this happening at some point. Numbers of new deaths announced are inevitably going to carry on sucking for quite some time, and would do so for a while even after a clear peak of cases happened.

Plus as I've said before, if the outbreak cannot be contained then at some point the numbers we are getting is going to change in nature anyway, including numbers relating to mortality. If its a pandemic then clear numbers of confirmed cases will take a backseat to estimated number of infections in the population, which will be compared to number of hospital admissions, intensive care admissions, and fatalities. More like the sort of things we see in the weekly flu reports: sentinel and other tests still confirming some cases, but lots of other data being used to build the picture. Everything from number of calls to 111, GPs, hospital data, internet searches for certain terms, weekly tracking surveys, boarding school data, overall mortality stats.

As for anecdotes and political opinion from China, it can help build a useful picture in some ways, but I can rarely use anecdotal evidence to get a sense of scale. Even numbers that I dont think are terribly certain or useful at this stage are so much better in this regard than trying to measure the volume of anecdotes.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> I understand the need for clear info but I have absolutely no intention of giving the 2% figure any credibility if it makes people looking for a clear and simple picture think that 2 out of every 100 people who catch Covid-19 will die.
> 
> There are several reasons why I dont go down this route. A big one is because I dont have to, there are plenty of other sources for that sort of thing if thats the sort of info people want, just skip my shit. Another big one is that I watched a bunch of credible nuclear experts on television delivering their nice, safe, tidy messages in the first days after the woes at the nuclear plant began. Then one of the buildings suffered a hydrogen explosion and some of those experts became instantly useless in the field of public communication about Fukushima, because this eventuality was not covered by the picture they painted. I also saw people mocking the earlier mortality rates given for swine flu, once it became clear that the reality differend by several orders of magnitude.
> 
> Well, I feel bound to try to say things that avoid going down such a dead end myself. After all, I am likely to still be talking about this subject long after most people have lost interest. And most of my waffle is of even less use if I've blown my credibility with oversimplifications. If I am ever of any use at all, its by trying to describe the picture as I see it, even if such a process is tedious, occasionally alarming, not to some peoples tastes, treads on a few toes, and I do it with relish, with little regard for whether I come across at times as a bloated and pompous, arrogant imposter.



You do not come across like that. You’ve got passion and insight and I’m very grateful you’re on this thread. I have also repeatable said at work today that the 2% figure is likely to go down...with the big caveat of all the unknowns.

If I underestimate there’s very a real risk colleagues could die. If I underestimate others could die. Which may account for my sombre tone...and the grand total of 2 hours sleep doesnt help 

Maybe we could knock something up for those that are worried off the thread as a reference? A one pager and put in a sticky thread?


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> You do not come across like that. You’ve got passion and insight and I’m very grateful you’re on this thread. I have also repeatable said at work today that the 2% figure is likely to go down...with the big caveat of all the unknowns.
> 
> If I underestimate there’s very a real risk colleagues could die. If I underestimate others could die. Which may account for my sombre tone...and the grand total of 2 hours sleep doesnt help
> 
> Maybe we could knock something up for those that are worried off the thread as a reference? A one pager and put in a sticky thread?



Thanks and sorry to hear of your lack of sleep!

If I'm looking for an area of detail where a sombre tone seems appropriate, it only takes a different stat to be combined with the mortality ones. Estimates for how much of the global population in total could be infected. A stat with some very wide ranges of modelled estimates from what I've seen. Obviously this sort of factor makes a huge difference to disease impact, and even modest mortality rates can lead to to very ugly outcomes if the total number of infections is very high, especially if it happens in a short period of time. One of the complications with this sort of stat is that it is rarely possible to predict stuff like how many waves these infections will take place over.

I dont know about a sticky or anything, I'm used to just spilling my thoughts in a thread, and I assume people usually find other places to discuss things in a very different way if its needed. For example if this outbreak becomes a widespread part of our lives then I can well imagine people starting a thread in one of the subforums that is better suited to a bit more sensitive discussion about peoples personal health and family matters.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

Someone elses thoughts that are a good fit with what I was going on about earlier, although they have a more sensible emphasis on certain things than I usually manage. And I'm always jealous when people can manage to make similar points to me but with so many fewer words, which is all the time!


----------



## HAL9000 (Feb 11, 2020)

Shortage of masks could stop US operatations, most of the manufactures are in china and the demand is so extreme there's likely to be shortages



> Mike Bowen, vice president of Prestige Amaritech in Texas, one of the few manufacturers of medical masks outside of China, explains why a shortage of masks globally is not good news for his business











						BBC World Service - Business Daily, Coronavirus: A shortage of masks
					

The business impact of the coronavirus outbreak




					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Jump to 8 minutes 5 seconds to 12 minutes 44

(if you don't want to login, you can download the audio)


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> If I'm looking for an area of detail where a sombre tone seems appropriate, it only takes a different stat to be combined with the mortality ones. Estimates for how much of the global population in total could be infected. A stat with some very wide ranges of modelled estimates from what I've seen. Obviously this sort of factor makes a huge difference to disease impact, and even modest mortality rates can lead to to very ugly outcomes if the total number of infections is very high, especially if it happens in a short period of time. One of the complications with this sort of stat is that it is rarely possible to predict stuff like how many waves these infections will take place over.



And yes, if any of that sounds rather familiar today, I have indeed been infected by some of the thoughts of Prof Gabriel Leung on this subject. Stuff that the Guardian has been going on about today.









						Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'
					

Exclusive: Public health epidemiologist says other countries should consider adopting China-style containment measures




					www.theguardian.com
				




Not that I was a big fan of everything Leung said, such as the 'maybe it will attenuate its lethality' stuff, a subject that I've picked at before, something of an overstated cliche.


----------



## DexterTCN (Feb 11, 2020)

They're demonising some poor bastard calling him a "super-spreader".  Jesus.


----------



## elbows (Feb 12, 2020)

DexterTCN said:


> They're demonising some poor bastard calling him a "super-spreader".  Jesus.



Yes. I did explain the other day that the use of the term super-spreader was already normalised, including in some of the professional fields that take an interest in this sort of thing. But quickly after that I learnt that some other professionals were among the people horrified to see the term used in the media, and I did not try to work out exactly which different fields the term is considered normal or deeply unhelpful in. Its in some of the literature, but it depends which discipline.

Dr Michael Ryan of the WHO spoke about this stuff today and was not happy about it, and I was glad to see this aspect mentioned and criticised. Useful things have been learnt from past known super spreading events, and I am interested in the detail of them, but its better to focus on them as events, not individual people ripe for tabloid blame, horror and panto moralising.



> Dr Michael Ryan, the executive director at WHO’s health emergencies programme, said it was “deeply, deeply unhelpful” to single out sufferers as culpable in some fashion.
> 
> He told a press conference on Tuesday: “I really wish we could refrain from personalising these issues down to individuals who spread disease.”





> When asked about Walsh, Ryan said it was important to learn from individual cases, but that WHO’s overall risk assessment had not changed.
> 
> “This is by no means, compared to other events, a massive ‘super-spreading’ event. This is an unusual event and it is a wake-up call because there may be other circumstances in which this disease can spread like this, so we need to study those circumstances for sure but it doesn’t change our overall assessment.



And of course even the likes of the Guardian fail in their own way to take the high ground, and instantly plummet into the very depths he was just appealing against, with the very next words they wrote after finishing quoting him no less!



> “People are not at fault – they are never at fault in this situation, so let’s be extremely careful here, it’s really, really important that we don’t attach unnecessary stigma to this.”
> 
> Walsh is thought to be a so-called super-spreader – someone who transmits infections to far more people than the majority do. He was transferred to St Thomas’ hospital from Brighton on Thursday.











						Worthing hospital healthcare worker contracts coronavirus
					

A&E staffer is among eight UK cases, along with doctor and Brighton businessman




					www.theguardian.com
				




I suppose aside from the crap media angle, there are more complicated questions of how much information we are given, and how much we deserve. Its understandable that people in, for example, Brighton, would want to know the exact who's, where's and when's of the matter, and even crude stories about the super-spreading feel like useful info compared to the usual nothing. Its interesting to contrast a privacy and 'dont tell people some stuff in case they do something stupid with the info' approach with the likes of Singapore where they were giving out lots of info about cases including the street where they live. And no I'm not praising anything about Singapore and its regime, or the existing security apparatus that enables their efficient tracing of contacts and their approach towards how they treat their public. Just interested in the differences of approach, but as I already implied they are operating with a different backdrop to the UK in the first place.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 12, 2020)

I'd have thought it's more likely to discourage people from coming forward if they think they'll be labelled as a superspreader. Not at all helpful.


----------



## elbows (Feb 12, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I'd have thought it's more likely to discourage people from coming forward if they think they'll be labelled as a superspreader. Not at all helpful.



Given how infuriating counterproductive shit can be at work, thinking about or observing such things in the context of attempting to contain a large outbreak, or fighting a war, really puts the dodgy icing on the cake of my opinion of the triumphs and efficiencies of human endeavour.


----------



## elbows (Feb 12, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I'm not sure how that would work out with the quarantined passengers getting meals, etc., but if there's any country likely to have robots up to the task, it's Japan.



Oh you had to mention the robots, now see whats happened.


----------



## elbows (Feb 12, 2020)

Meanwhile its sad but not really surprising that the situation with the cruise ship continues to include loads more positive test results. This time a quarantine officer is one of them.









						Japan to expand coronavirus testing as 39 more on cruise test positive
					

The increase in the number of people on the Diamond Princess diagnosed with COVID-19 continued as the health ministry announced 29 passengers, 10 crew members and one quarantine officer have tested positive.




					www.japantimes.co.jp
				






> Thirty-nine more passengers on the Diamond Princess cruise ship and one quarantine officer have tested positive for the new coronavirus, health minister Katsunobu Kato said Wednesday morning.
> 
> The new cases bring the total linked to the ship to 175.
> 
> ...











						Japan to expand coronavirus testing as 39 more on cruise test positive
					

The increase in the number of people on the Diamond Princess diagnosed with COVID-19 continued as the health ministry announced 29 passengers, 10 crew members and one quarantine officer have tested positive.




					www.japantimes.co.jp


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 12, 2020)

Bit busy today, so not caught up on the thread, so apologises if it has already been mentioned.

One of yesterday's new cases, infected by the guy from Brighton & Hove, worked in the A&E department at Worthing Hospital, which is not surprising as lots of people commute both ways between here and B&H, being only 12 miles apart.

So, Public Health England is working with the hospital to trace staff & patients that came into contact with them, I am keeping my fingers crossed that there's not an outbreak there, as that would be a nightmare for the town, plus I have family & friends that work at the hospital.


----------



## elbows (Feb 12, 2020)

Looks like the Brighton tories have staggering into action to deal with the fearmonger within their ranks.









						Conservative leader apologises for causing 'unnecessary alarm' over coronavirus
					

THE Conservative leader has apologised for causing "unnecessary alarm" after a Tory councillor said the coronavirus outbreak was…




					www.theargus.co.uk


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 12, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> You missed the key point “severe cases of flu” and irresponsibly tagged “severe” onto Coronavirus.
> 
> Out of all recorded cases of Coronavirus the mortality is just over 2%. You are not comparing it to all cases of seasonal flu.



Yes, I tagged “severe” onto Coronavirus, because it's widely reported that in China mild cases are not being tested, and are turned-away to self isolate, I read an estimate from researchers at Imperial College that only 1 in 19 cases are being tested. Other estimates/modelling suggest there is likely to be well over 200k cases in China, compared with current confirmed cases of around 45k.

So, it seems logical that the vast majority of recorded cases are “severe”, and it's that pool of people that produce the 2% figure.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 12, 2020)

I've spoken to 2 people that work at Worthing Hospital, they are not concerned, this was a locum doctor that has only done 2 shifts in A&E at the hospital, on the 4th & 5th Feb.

What they are pissed off about is the media circus that has set-up on the pavement outside the grounds, having been refused permission to come onto the site - BBC, Sky & ITV news are all there, together with some newspaper reporters too, and that's spreading fear amongst some patients & staff.


----------



## elbows (Feb 12, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Yes, I tagged “severe” onto Coronavirus, because it's widely reported that in China mild cases are not being tested, and are turned-away to self isolate,



That wa certainly the impression earlier on, I'm not sure what the current reality there is, there are mixed indications.

For example there has been confusion in recent days about whether China changed the way they record numbers, to exclude cases that tested positive but show no symptoms. When it came up in a recent WHO press conference, they actually said sort of the opposite, that China has now broadened its case definition to include the sort of mild cases that would previously have been excluded. But where in the statistics those cases are listed is still not very clear to me. I mention it now only because there are mild and asymptomatic cases being picked up in China these days, though that does not answer the question of how many of those are still being missed.

Anyway the case bit of case fatality rate certainly makes a difference, due to varying definitions of case. In widespread outbreaks cases are always likely to be just a subset of actual people infected, and so there are other things like IFR that try to work off a broader picture. Infection fatality rate, ratio or risk (yay another level of confusion, 3 different sorts of R for this acronym!). Point being, an estimate of overall number of infections is used, rather than clinical cases.


----------



## quimcunx (Feb 12, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> It's very standard in schools now...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Get them used to it young.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 12, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> I've spoken to 2 people that work at Worthing Hospital, they are not concerned, this was a locum doctor that has only done 2 shifts in A&E at the hospital, on the 4th & 5th Feb.
> 
> What they are pissed off about is the media circus that has set-up on the pavement outside the grounds, having been refused permission to come onto the site - BBC, Sky & ITV news are all there, together with some newspaper reporters too, and that's spreading fear amongst some patients & staff.



Go and breathe over them that'll shift em


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 12, 2020)

According to this report, there's a big disconnect between the death figures China is releasing and the true number of deaths - people are dying at home and being cremated without ever being diagnosed.



> The doctor told the family: “It’s the pneumonia that everybody around the country knows about.”
> 
> Local doctors have heard of many such cases and many Wuhan residents have complained that family members cannot get a proper diagnosis because frontline hospitals are overwhelmed in the face of high patient numbers and a shortage of supplies and testing kits.
> 
> Wei Peng, a community hospital doctor in the city, said that medical staff were not allowed to list coronavirus as a cause of death when cases had not been confirmed and said that later instructions had even banned them from listing pneumonia. Instead they can only write the immediate cause of a patient’s death, such as diabetes or organ failure.











						The pneumonia ‘everybody knows’ but won’t show up in official death tolls
					

Wuhan’s overburdened health workers are unable to confirm many of those who died were suffering from Covid-19, which means they will not show up in official figures.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## weltweit (Feb 12, 2020)

I heard someone like Grant Shapps on the news today saying that the NHS is well prepared for this virus. I don't know about other people but I somewhat doubt the NHS has enough spare specialist isolation type beds should the virus properly take hold in the UK.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 12, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> According to this report, there's a big disconnect between the death figures China is releasing and the true number of deaths - people are dying at home and being cremated without ever being diagnosed.
> ..


Yes, my feelings also, I doubt we are seeing the truth being reported from China.


----------



## elbows (Feb 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I heard someone like Grant Shapps on the news today saying that the NHS is well prepared for this virus. I don't know about other people but I somewhat doubt the NHS has enough spare specialist isolation type beds should the virus properly take hold in the UK.



If it properly takes hold then they wont be attempting the same degree of isolation anyway.

In terms of preparedness, most health services struggle to cope with 'bad influenza seasons', go beyond a certain number of people seeking care and things tend to break down. No matter how well prepared we are or not in other areas, this fact always lurks in the background. It would apply with this coronavirus too, though we will only get to see a demonstration of this if the infection rate reaches a certain level.

I struggle to call underfunded services well prepared for anything, and I wont make an exception in this case. People within the service will do the best they can, under circumstances made more difficult by the politicians. Politicians who now have to deliver messages of reassurance.


----------



## Supine (Feb 12, 2020)

So a Chinese pharma company called Biogene have just announced they have successfully copied remdesivir which is currently the lead candidate for treatment. 

As the drug is patented by Giliad I'm not sure if they're planning to offer extra manufacturing capacity to Giliad or if they plan to break IP and sell it on their own. Alongside a patent attack by another Chinese company Giliad seem to have their hands full at the moment. 

All this and first trial results for remdesivir aren't even expected until April.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 12, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> I work in the kitchen at a school in Brighton.
> We have, today, been given hand sanitiser to use (on top of the normal handwashing) but that seems a bit lame when we have a cashless system, using fingerprints, for the kids (and in addition to that, they quite often don't work unless the kids blow on their finger first*).
> 
> I have mentioned this several times today, not in any mental, panic-stricken way, just quietly a bit... erm HELLO!  but it seems to have been largely ignored/played down (in favour of not panicking, I guess).
> ...



Realistically a school is always going to be a germ paradise fingerprint pad or no. Door handles spring to mind. I work in various different schools and ultimately the only thing for it is try not to think about it and wash your hands every time you have access to running water.

If it's a primary school, well it never ceases to amaze me how efficient young kids are at distributing snot around the place. Maybe it's an evolutionary thing, to infect and kill off us old weak ones so there's more resources for them.


----------



## donkyboy (Feb 12, 2020)

I woke up past 3 am on monday morning shivering and sweating flue like symptoms. I thought oh shit could it be the dreaded C word. But told myself, calm down. dont be a melodramatic donkey. No reported cases in Vauxhall. Anyway, it was a one off and I'm fine now.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I heard someone like Grant Shapps on the news today saying that the NHS is well prepared for this virus. I don't know about other people but I somewhat doubt the NHS has enough spare specialist isolation type beds should the virus properly take hold in the UK.



It must be a different country I'm thinking of, where they were doing shit like withholding funding from hospitals that refused to sell off chunks of their estates. Could've sworn it was here though.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 12, 2020)

Coronavirus: Ninth case found in UK
					

A woman who flew into London from China is being treated at a hospital in central London.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 12, 2020)

Indeliblelink said:


> Coronavirus: Ninth case found in UK
> 
> 
> A woman who flew into London from China is being treated at a hospital in central London.
> ...



But, on the positive side...



> Meanwhile, all 83 people being held in quarantine at Arrowe Park Hospital in the Wirral have been told their final set of test results for the coronavirus have come back negative, confirming they are free of the virus.
> 
> It is expected they will leave the accommodation on Thursday morning, having spent two weeks there in quarantine.
> 
> Earlier, British man Steve Walsh, one of the nine UK cases of coronavirus, left hospital having fully recovered.



... and, so far, there hasn't been a single case of confirmed person-to-person infection in UK.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 12, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> ..
> ... and, so far, there hasn't been a single case of confirmed person-to-person infection in UK.


I thought that became obsolete with a doctor that tested positive today?


> Two of them are known to be GPs.
> 
> Officials know the pair worked at a nursing home, Worthing Hospital A&E and two GP practices between them.
> 
> Public Health England confirmed on Wednesday it has traced and advised all close contacts of the two GPs, including about 12 patients.











						Coronavirus: Ninth case found in UK
					

A woman who flew into London from China is being treated at a hospital in central London.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Supine (Feb 12, 2020)

Fake news has started in the UK


----------



## Callie (Feb 12, 2020)

There are circulating strains of yer bog standard Coronavirus too regardless (think common cold!) So the story might on some level be true.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 12, 2020)

There don't seem to be any cases in the UK that cannot be traced directly back to someone arriving from SE Asia, which is good. Still feels like a matter of when rather than if though. Of course if 'when' can be held off until the slightly warmer months that could make a lot of difference.


----------



## Shechemite (Feb 12, 2020)

Are we all going to die or not?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I thought that became obsolete with a doctor that tested positive today?



No doctor has tested positive today, 4 new cases were reported on Monday, last night one of those were confirmed to have worked at Worthing hospital for a couple of days after returning from France.

Those 4 plus 1 other were all traced back to this so-called 'super-spreader', who infected them & 6 others whilst in France.

Basically 6 out of the 8 UK cases up to this morning are all connected to this one bloke, and all had been at the ski chalet in France.


----------



## Callie (Feb 12, 2020)

MadeInBedlam said:


> Are we all going to die or not?


100% yes


----------



## Shechemite (Feb 12, 2020)

One less thing to worry about then


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 12, 2020)

I am in Worthing, part of the Great Brighton area, where 6 out of the 9 UK cases have been confirmed, all infected outside of the UK, one of which worked a couple of days last week in A&E at Worthing Hospital, so you could say at the 'epicentre' of UK cases.

I have family & friends that work at the hospital, I've spoken to dozens of people locally today, inc. staff from the hospital & at a meeting of 30 plus people this morning, not a single one has expressed any concerns.

Well, except mother who has dementia & has got paranoid over the TV news coverage & them being camped outside the hospital, because of her forthcoming hospital appointment, until I pointed out that appointment isn't at Worthing hospital, but over at St Richards in Chichester.

I can forgive her for her paranoia, because of her condition, the paranoia I see online just beggars belief TBH.


----------



## elbows (Feb 12, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> There don't seem to be any cases in the UK that cannot be traced directly back to someone arriving from SE Asia, which is good.



That may be in part because we arent looking for any cases that dont have such links, so we wont find any. That will only change by accident, ie stumbling into such a case, or because they change the criteria for suspecting Corvid-19.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 12, 2020)

elbows said:


> That may be in part because we arent looking for any cases that dont have such links, so we wont find any. That will only change by accident, ie stumbling into such a case, or because they change the criteria for suspecting Corvid-19.



They do seem to be saying don't phone 111 unless you or someone you've had contact with has recently arrived from China, Korea etc. Which is a good way not to spot the third- or fourth-hand cases, if there are any.


----------



## elbows (Feb 12, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> They do seem to be saying don't phone 111 unless you or someone you've had contact with has recently arrived from China, Korea etc. Which is a good way not to spot the third- or fourth-hand cases, if there are any.



Exactly, and this is a known weakness. Given the time of year and the similarity of symptoms with umpteen other things, they would have been swamped if they entirely removed the geographical constraint, so it is tricky. Ideally broader surveillance would still be undertaken, which would somewhat help diminish the effects of the blind spot, eg random testing of samples aquired via the existing surveillance systems, testing of pneumonia cases in general, etc. But this sort of thing wouldnt be designed to detect most cases in a very timely fashion, just to give you an indication of whether any general community spread is happening.

I see that a few of the USA's CDC comments today were along the same lines as what was said in Singapore some days ago, sort of preparing people for the possible next phase.



> The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday it is preparing for the new coronavirus, which has killed at least 1,115 and sickened more than 45,000 worldwide, to “take a foothold in the U.S.”
> 
> “At some point, we are likely to see community spread in the U.S. or in other countries,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call*. *“This will trigger a change in our response strategy.”











						Top CDC official says US should prepare for coronavirus 'to take a foothold'
					

"At some point, we are likely to see community spread in the U.S. or in other countries," said Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 12, 2020)

Is it paranoia? I'd say it's probably quite sensible at this point for people in the groups most at risk to consider postponing any hospital appointments that aren't urgent.


----------



## Tankus (Feb 12, 2020)

_“With due regard to the safe and healthy environment in *Barcelona* and the host country today, the GSMA has *cancelled* MWC *Barcelona* 2020 because the global concern regarding the coronavirus outbreak, travel concern and other circumstances, make it impossible for the GSMA to hold the event.""








						The world’s biggest phone show has been canceled due to coronavirus concerns
					

MWC is no longer taking place due to health concerns over the coronavirus spread.




					www.theverge.com
				



The GSMA is an industry trade body that represents more than 1,200 companies across the mobile ecosystem, and MWC is the chance for thousands to gather for partnerships, deals, and product launches. MWC is usually held annually in Barcelona, and it has a big economic impact of 492 million euros, and also generates 14,100 part-time jobs. _

Thats a biggie


----------



## two sheds (Feb 12, 2020)

AVANI RIVERSIDE BANGKOK HOTEL, THAILAND
Tue 1st - Thu 3rd December 2020


well quite: 

Due to the recent Coronavirus outbreak in China, 
the Steering Committee of the 6th AsiaBrake Conference and Exhibition 
would like to announce the postponement of the conference 
from the 16th – 18th February 
to Tue 1st December – Thu 3rd December 2020, 
at Avani Riverside Bangkok Hotel.


----------



## elbows (Feb 12, 2020)

Its not as simple as paranoia, its a well known feature that pops up all the time in these situations, for reasons good and bad. Its a big part of the thinking behind public health messages & responses to situations, even though mistakes are made all the time in these areas.

If I were designing a society, I would try to give people lots of things that they can do personally in these sorts of situations. Because it is good for mental health and stress to be placed in a position where you feel like you have some control over your fate. There is much in life we cannot control, but thats no excuse for officialdom to hoover up the last dregs of self-empowerment.

On that note, if I found myself with undirected mental energy bursting forth in unpleasant ways as a result of this outbreak, I would try to direct it somewhere vaguely useful. To start with it doesnt even need to involve any action, it can involve observations about our own behaviour that normally passes unnoticed. Perhaps I could try to calmly take note of all the time I touch different parts of my face with my hands. Perhaps I could start to think about situations where that could be problematic for infection, and this awareness could be used to modify my own behaviour in these situations. But obviously anything positive in either the practical or mental health sense could be undone if I became unduly fixated and obsessed with these themes, so likely this sort of thinking is not for everyone and needs to be approached with a particular positive mentality.


----------



## elbows (Feb 12, 2020)

Tankus said:


> Thats a biggie



It became somewhat inevitable for that show to be cancelled because too many of the important attendees had already announced they were pulling out over recent days.

I'd say its mostly about the timing and the whole global travel thing rather than the location of the conference.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 12, 2020)

two sheds said:


> AVANI RIVERSIDE BANGKOK HOTEL, THAILAND
> Tue 1st - Thu 3rd December 2020
> 
> 
> ...



I love the fact that a conference about brakes has a steering committee.


----------



## krtek a houby (Feb 13, 2020)

Saw a queue of maybe 70 people outside the drug store yesterday morning. Masks are still flying off the shelves.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 13, 2020)

krtek a houby said:


> Saw a queue of maybe 70 people outside the drug store yesterday morning. Masks are still flying off the shelves.



Anyone wearing one?


----------



## krtek a houby (Feb 13, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Anyone wearing one?



Around half, maybe more.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 13, 2020)

1,368 deaths now. Over 60,000 confirmed cases.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 13, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> 1,368 deaths now. Over 60,000 confirmed cases.



Blimey, that's a hell of a jump in cases, but it seems it is down to a new method of diagnosing in China, which has reported almost 15,000 new cases yesterday, taking the total there to 59,805.



> Hubei’s health commission said on Thursday that it was now including people clinically diagnosed with CT scans as well as those who have been confirmed positive with testing kits. Previously, authorities had included only those cases confirmed by the diagnostic tests, which are in short supply.
> 
> The change in diagnostic criteria appeared aimed at heading off complaints about the availability of tests and treatment for residents, as well as questions about whether officials have been underreporting.
> 
> The shortage of the testing kits has meant that many sick residents have been unable to seek treatment, with hospital admission contingent on the test result. Health workers have been calling for authorities to broaden the parameters for diagnosing the virus in order to treat more patients. Some have also questioned the reliability of the tests.



SOURCE - The Guardian

Most of the new cases are in Wuhan, so assuming this method is rolled out across the rest of Hubei province, and indeed across China, I guess we can expect some more big leaps in the official figures over the next few days. 

Of course, this opens up all sort of new questions about the data that has been coming out of China so far, and indeed moving forward.

On Sky News, Dr Derek Gatherer, a Virologist at Lancaster University, estimated the true number of cases in China is anywhere between 10 times, and as much as 25 times, of those actually confirmed.

Record number of deaths in China yesterday too, at 242. Meanwhile over on that cruise ship in Japan, reported cases are now up to 218.

And, a US cruise ship with 1,455 passengers & 802 crew, that was turned away by Japan, Guam, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand over the last two weeks, has finally been allowed to anchor outside Sihanoukville, in Cambodia. Apparently 20 people on-board are ill, none actually have symptoms of COVID-19, but some more tests will be carried out before they are allowed to disembark.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 13, 2020)

It doesn't seem properly managed.

“I left my workplace in a cab. I was wearing a medical mask with a filter. But the driver wasn’t wearing a mask."

She said: “Once you call NHS 111 and get through to Public Health England asking for advice on how to get tested, they say they’ll get back to you in a few hours.


“But it took them 15 hours to get back to me – and I’ve come into direct contact with someone who was in isolation. I’m a nurse, but someone else might think ‘Oh, they’ll get back to me eventually’, and go about their daily business. They could start spreading the virus.

“This is not being dealt with effectively. I thought there would be a plan in place for something like this, but in my case, I know there wasn’t one.”

The nurse said she has been left feeling anxious due to a lack of support. She said: “I’m feeling paranoid at home now. I’m scared to touch anything because I’m not sure how long the virus stays on surfaces. I’m going around scrubbing things as a precaution for when the kids get back.

“I’m not getting advice from anyone – not over the phone, nothing. I’ve just had to go inside and wait. And I’ve got a few of the symptoms of coronavirus, like a sore throat and a cough. It’s escalated into a full-blown throaty cold, but it’s too early to tell. I won’t know whether the person I was in contact with had coronavirus for a few days.”


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 13, 2020)

.


----------



## Shechemite (Feb 13, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> .



I don’t see the point


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 13, 2020)

MadeInBedlam said:


> I don’t see the point


it's clear there in the post you quote. see an optician at your earliest convenience.


----------



## lizzieloo (Feb 13, 2020)

My GP was coughing as I went into his room the other day, I joked with him about it, he says no, it's not coronavirus although his student son does live in a houseshare with a chap from Wuhan.

 

I'm surprised he told me that cos I might be a Daily Mail type for all he knows.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Blimey, that's a hell of a jump in cases, but it seems it is down to a new method of diagnosing in China, which has reported almost 15,000 new cases yesterday, taking the total there to 59,805.
> 
> Most of the new cases are in Wuhan, so assuming this method is rolled out across the rest of Hubei province, and indeed across China, I guess we can expect some more big leaps in the official figures over the next few days.
> 
> Of course, this opens up all sort of new questions about the data that has been coming out of China so far, and indeed moving forward.



Some new questions, yes. But also some old ones, and many familiar themes, and perhaps even a few answers to previous areas of confusion. I dunno, I have to check a few things and see quite how this new stuff relates to the other end of the stick which people, including myself, were trying to grasp in recent days. Stuff that I made reference to when I said this yesterday:



elbows said:


> For example there has been confusion in recent days about whether China changed the way they record numbers, to exclude cases that tested positive but show no symptoms. When it came up in a recent WHO press conference, they actually said sort of the opposite, that China has now broadened its case definition to include the sort of mild cases that would previously have been excluded. But where in the statistics those cases are listed is still not very clear to me. I mention it now only because there are mild and asymptomatic cases being picked up in China these days, though that does not answer the question of how many of those are still being missed.



The reason people were directing their attention towards that other end of the stick was because the context was falling numbers in recent days, and whether that showed something genuine or not. And now we've suddenly got rising numbers again and an explanation for those. What the WHO said also makes sense now, well it made sense too then but without the context of the latest numbers that reflect this change, I was still trying to fit the WHO words to the other end of the stick.

One of the complaints today is that it is now hard to compare previous trends in the numbers with new and future trends, because of the change in criteria of who gets counted. Well, it is a pain yes, but its one of the inevitabilities when it comes to stats relating to outbreaks, if the outbreak goes beyond a certain size. eg when the H1N1 swine flu arrived in small numbers in the UK, we would test every case we could and those were the numbers used. Once we had the first large wave of widespread community infection in July of 2009, they were not trying to test everyone, so numbers obtained in a different way became the focus and the official numbers. Add in whatever Chinas own intents in the realm of data manipulation have been at varying stages of this outbreak, and its no surprise that these numbers have not been telling the full story.

So hopefully todays news is not a terrible revelation for people. The media have been playing the usual game where they will include caveats in their numbers-driven stories, urging caution about interpreting recent numbers in a certain way, but will then proceed to make the positive or negative interpretations anyway. There was certainly a bit of this in recent days with the 'oh look the numbers are dropping' stories. And then they express indignation when the interpretation is superseded the very next day. This is one of the reasons I drone on about some stuff, I'm hoping it sometimes helps people, if not exactly to see this stuff coming, at least not have it all arrive out of the blue.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

It might have been his way of adding to the joke.


----------



## lizzieloo (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> It might have been his way of adding to the joke.



No he was being serious, He's a very straightforward kinda person. It doesn't worry me though, his son doesn't live with him and I have no idea when the chap from Wuhan was last home.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 13, 2020)

Area quarantine measures begin in Vietnam.









						Vietnam quarantines area with 10,000 residents over coronavirus - France 24
					

Vietnam quarantines area with 10,000 residents over coronavirus




					www.france24.com
				




Two French patients (I think the very earliest confirmed infected in France on 24 Jan) were released.

Singapore shows sustained spread (perhaps London in about a week or two??)




__





						MOH | News Highlights
					

Find speeches, press releases, forum replies and parliamentary Q&A.




					www.moh.gov.sg
				




By all I can tell the situation remains desperate in Hubei, there is a huge backlog of people not yet hospitalised, some are dead, some are still alive.

A chief respiratory doctor in China said the only way to defeat the disease is to suffocate out the virus, i.e. reduce inter-human contact to as little as possible in all cases.

Also Caixin reports the first time an infected patient was accepted for treatment in a Beijing hospital was on 12 January


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

Regardless of the reality, in my imagination Dr Deadpan is already being called urgently to containment pod 4.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> Add in whatever Chinas own intents in the realm of data manipulation have been at varying stages of this outbreak, and its no surprise that these numbers have not been telling the full story.



China leadership's interests according to some are spread to other competitors


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Also Caixin reports the first time an infected patient was accepted for treatment in a Beijing hospital was on 1st December 2019



Are you sure you havent got the date backwards? Machine translation of that article says January 12th, Not December 1st!

And the various January dates throughout the article are entirely consistent with the period in January which we already know clearly shows authorities had an evolving picture of the outbreak that they were not shared publicly. A period that ended in a transition to a more serious picture given to the public during the week of Jan 20th.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 13, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Is it paranoia? I'd say it's probably quite sensible at this point for people in the groups most at risk to consider postponing any hospital appointments that aren't urgent.



Probably won't be long before non-urgent stuff is getting cancelled en masse tbh.


----------



## Cid (Feb 13, 2020)

Looked a bit more into universities in China... looks like most are moving to online teaching for the time being.


----------



## maomao (Feb 13, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> Probably won't be long before non-urgent stuff is getting cancelled en masse tbh.


That's been happening for nearly a decade. More to do with Tory government than coronavirus. 

Apparently the Lewisham case went to hospital in an Uber. Uber drivers can knock out five or six fares an hour when it's busy. And hopefully the driver was who they thought it was in the first place (Uber have form on that one).


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

The situation with various boats really is a terrible disgrace.

Japan talking about letting people over 80 off if they test negative, taking the piss. Talk about doing as little as possible, as slowly as possible.


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Feb 13, 2020)

I work in a London hospital and we are quite surprised that so far, not one of our patients has cancelled their appointment. That could change of course.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> The situation with various boats really is a terrible disgrace.
> 
> Japan talking about letting people over 80 off if they test negative, taking the piss. Talk about doing as little as possible, as slowly as possible.



That one that was 'turned away' by half a dozen countries, fucking hell.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

maomao said:


> That's been happening for nearly a decade. More to do with Tory government than coronavirus.
> 
> Apparently the Lewisham case went to hospital in an Uber. Uber drivers can knock out five or six fares an hour when it's busy. And hopefully the driver was who they thought it was in the first place (Uber have form on that one).



Unlike the case labelled super-spreader the other day, who was hailed by the authorities as a great example of following the advice (call 111, dont travel around and visit healthcare facilities of your own accord), this London case will now be held up as an example of someone disregarding all the advice.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 13, 2020)

Mrs Miggins said:


> I work in a London hospital and we are quite surprised that so far, not one of our patients has cancelled their appointment. That could change of course.



Hospital appointments are gold dust these days, I wouldn't cancel one unless the place was actually on fire.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> That one that was 'turned away' by half a dozen countries, fucking hell.



Yeah. The WHO were not happy about this yesterday.









						WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on Ebola and COVID-19 outbreaks
					






					www.who.int
				






> Now we have three cruise ships that have experienced delayed port clearance or have been denied entry to ports, often without an evidence-based risk assessment.
> 
> Together with the International Maritime Organization, we will issue a communique to all countries to respect the principle of “free pratique” for ships and the principle of proper care for all travelers, in accordance with the International Health Regulations.
> 
> We have also established lines of communication with IMO, the Cruise Lines International Association and the major cruise operators to ensure we have accurate information and can provide the right advice.





> WHO has published guidance on how to handle public health events like this on ships, and we urge countries and companies to follow that guidance.
> 
> I’m also pleased to announce that today Cambodia agreed to accept the Westerdam cruise ship, which has been stranded at sea for several days.
> 
> ...





> This afternoon I spoke to Cambodia’s Minister of Health to thank him for allowing the Westerdam to dock in his country, and I would like to use this opportunity to appreciate the government, especially His Excellency the Prime Minister.
> 
> This is an example of the international solidarity we have consistently been calling for.
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

Coronavirus: medical chief says UK hopes to delay any outbreak until summer
					

Prof Chris Witty says a four-point tactical plan is in place to help country cope with virus




					www.theguardian.com
				






> While he said it was possible that “an epidemic is rolling our way”, Whitty said he would only talk about the potential number of people who could be affected when the facts were clear. Commenting on the figures that came out of China on Thursday, which rose sharply after authorities changed the way they calculate the figures, Whitty said any irregularity in the numbers coming out of the country were not “deliberately misleading” but instead the “reality is taking a long time to catch up with the facts”.



Well as I've long been saying, its true that established facts and data lag behind the reality, even if an authority is not deliberately distorting the picture. But this does not rule out the prospect of deliberate distortion being present on top of the unavoidable lag.

Also hasnt he got that last statement the wrong way round? Surely its the known facts that have to catch up with reality. To express this the other way round could almost be a wry comment about authoritarian attempts to create their own reality, although I doubt that was the intent in this case. And it was in the Guardian, maybe they scrambled it.


----------



## CNT36 (Feb 13, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> I wouldn't cancel one unless the place was actually on fire.


Seems rash.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> Are you sure you havent got the date backwards? Machine translation of that article says January 12th, Not December 1st!
> 
> And the various January dates throughout the article are entirely consistent with the period in January which we already know clearly shows authorities had an evolving picture of the outbreak that they were not shared publicly. A period that ended in a transition to a more serious picture given to the public during the week of Jan 20th.



Yes I am going crazy, 12 January. 

The strange thing is this from an unnamed 

“我们一直在关注武汉情况，内部早早下了通知，对发热、咳嗽患者留意，并在全市范围部署”，前述人士提到，应对疫情，在1月12日之前北京市已经形成一套接诊流程，接到有疑似症状的患者要及时向市卫健委汇报。北京早部署相当关键。接近地坛医院的消息人士告诉财新记者，大兴患者主要是在武汉参加一次婚礼后感染，从未去过海鲜市场。

'We were constantly mindful of the situation in Wuhan, the city department had very early on issued a notice warning to keep on the lookout for patients with a temperature and cough, to cover the whole city.' This person also noted that before 12th January Beijing city had already formed a protocol in how to accept patients, when suspected patients were received it had to be reported to city Health and welfare committee. This early posture was crucial in Beijing.
A source close to Beijing DItan Hospital told Caixin reporter that patients from Daxing were infected after attending a wedding in Wuhan, they never visited the seafood market.


----------



## billy_bob (Feb 13, 2020)

I have a cold coming on. Am wondering if I should just accept my fate and chuck meself off a viaduct now before They lock me up on a cruise ship.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Yes I am going crazy, 12 January.
> 
> The strange thing is this from an unnamed
> 
> ...



A bunch of the first clinical cases discussed in a paper did not have direct links to the market themselves, so by the time these cases showed up in the heath system and raised alarms, some signs of community spread were present too.

I've taken a look at the December and January timeline before, I dont have the energy to do it again properly now. But it is reasonable to say that by some stage in December they new it was a big deal, and that the last days of December and the first weeks of January would have been a time of rapidly expanding clues as to the disease and community spread. It would be useful to know exactly what date 'before January 12th' relates to, but it does fit what we already know. The way the number of cases turning up at hospital in Wuhan was doubling quickly, the first signs of healthcare workers getting infected, these things started to be come clear no later than early January, and I dont think they were hidden from central authorities, so Beijing being on alert on or before January 12th fits.

When it comes to lag, there are certainly periods where knowledge and detection of the outbreak would lag 1-3 weeks behind. And there are certainly signs of a separate, man-made 1-3 week lag between what the authorities knew/suspected and what was publicly said in January. The extent of these lags has shifted over time, and its actually easier for me to take a fair stab at estimating how this stuff went in December and up to January 20th than since then.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> Given how infuriating counterproductive shit can be at work, thinking about or observing such things in the context of attempting to contain a large outbreak, or fighting a war, really puts the dodgy icing on the cake of my opinion of the triumphs and efficiencies of human endeavour.



Here we go, welcome to the absurdities of containment show. 

Will the virus respect the arbitrary numbers of our definition? 

Good luck sustaining public faith in this mission.

From Coronavirus latest updates: London GP surgery closed – live news 



> Commenting on the safety of the Uber driver who drove the woman, Dr Rachel Thorn Heathcock, consultant at Public Health England, said:
> We are in contact with Uber to ensure the driver receives advice and information on what to do should they feel unwell in the coming days. As the journey was less than 15 minutes, the driver did not have close sustained contact with the individual and are not considered high risk. We would like to thank Uber for their cooperation.


----------



## Tankus (Feb 13, 2020)

London underground.....best virus distribution system ever


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 13, 2020)

Isolation pods, AKA portacabins, have been set up outside Worthing Hospital's A&E dept.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> Unlike the case labelled super-spreader the other day, who was hailed by the authorities as a great example of following the advice (call 111, dont travel around and visit healthcare facilities of your own accord), this London case will now be held up as an example of someone disregarding all the advice.



Did she know she was infected? (sorry I've not followed the story)


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Did she know she was infected? (sorry I've not followed the story)



Probably fell ill and at that point suspected they themselves were infected, but proof only comes after testing.

I'm not even very interested in the detail of this case, in that I would not want to vilify or punish the person involved. I do support the incident being talked about though because it can help spread the message of what people are actually supposed to do in this situation. But with the caveat that its not like the system is going to respond in a timely manner to all those who follow the proper advice.

BBC touch on some of these issues.









						Coronavirus: More may need to self-isolate to stop spread - NHS boss
					

The warning comes as it emerges the ninth person to contract the virus went to hospital in an Uber.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> The ninth UK case illustrates the challenge the authorities face in trying to contain the coronavirus. The guidance is clear about what to do if you suspect you might be infected. Phone NHS 111 and self-isolate yourself.
> 
> Jumping into an Uber and heading into a busy A&E unit - where there will be lots of people with potentially weakened immune systems - is the last thing someone should be doing.
> 
> ...


----------



## two sheds (Feb 13, 2020)

Ta  

I can imagine someone comes down with what they think is flu and wouldn't necessarily realize. If someone tells me they have an infection and they're calling round I tend to ask them to stay away because I'm prone to chest infections and they fuck me over. I think some people feel I'm overreacting but I consider that their problem rather than mine


----------



## weltweit (Feb 13, 2020)

Tankus said:


> London underground.....best virus distribution system ever


Funnily enough I was thinking exactly that last night.  If infected people travel by tube they could spread it enormously. Fingers crossed it won't come to that.


----------



## brogdale (Feb 13, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Ta
> 
> I can imagine someone comes down with what they think is flu and wouldn't necessarily realize. If someone tells me they have an infection and they're calling round I tend to ask them to stay away because I'm prone to chest infections and they fuck me over. I think some people feel I'm overreacting but I consider that their problem rather than mine


Likewise; which is why I get very angry at anti-social public coughers (a growing trend IMO)


----------



## weltweit (Feb 13, 2020)

My boss had a cold today, I was sitting next to him but when I realised I moved away. 

Did I move far enough away, I am not sure. 

But what are people to do when they have a cold, not go to work at all?


----------



## two sheds (Feb 13, 2020)




----------



## two sheds (Feb 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> My boss had a cold today, I was sitting next to him but when I realised I moved away.
> 
> Did I move far enough away, I am not sure.
> 
> But what are people to do when they have a cold, not go to work at all?



Well ideally I'd say yes but companies don't look favourably on that   I've never understood that - why would you want all your workers infected by demanding someone comes into work with an infectious disease?

Did all your co-workers move away leaving him in the middle of an empty circle?


----------



## weltweit (Feb 13, 2020)

two sheds said:


> ..
> Did all your co-workers move away leaving him in the middle of an empty circle?


It was only me in the room with him, I was going to say something but refrained


----------



## weltweit (Feb 13, 2020)

Are coronavirus tests flawed?
					

Concerns are being raised about the accuracy of the tests for the coronavirus.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> There are deep concerns laboratory tests are incorrectly telling people they are free of the coronavirus.
> 
> Stories in several countries suggest people are having up to six negative results before finally being diagnosed.



At the first stage of incubation the amount of the virus in the person's system could be absolutely minimal, there must be a level (in the body) at which the test will not return a positive?


----------



## Supine (Feb 13, 2020)

Good interview with an epidemiologist









						Harvard expert says coronavirus likely now ‘gathering steam’
					

Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch said evidence indicates that the international cordon keeping coronavirus cases bottled up in China is a leaky one, and it’s likely that the relative handful of global cases reported so far are undercounted. If true, that will lead to widespread illness internationally...




					news.harvard.edu


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Are coronavirus tests flawed?
> 
> 
> Concerns are being raised about the accuracy of the tests for the coronavirus.
> ...



Thats one of the factors. That article does touch on it briefly, but has a lot of other possibilities to cover too.

Not just a question of the levels in the body, but where in the body, and are our swabs etc getting a fair sample from that area of the body? And there are unlikely to be hard and fast rules that apply to every patient.

I dont know how much rectal swabs have been used, but they would be something I'd include if I were trying to get the best picture of the situation that I could.

Anyway the questionable test accuracy is just the latest of the 'things we speculated about in theory that would make containment harder' that seem to have turned out to be sadly relevant to this coronavirus outbreak. I wonder whether our media will direct these false negative concerns to the UK tests anytime soon, or if sentiments relating to the UK testing regime will remain artificially isolated from this concern.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> I dont know how much rectal swabs have been used, but they would be something I'd include if I were trying to get the best picture of the situation that I could.


That might definitely put people off being tested.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 13, 2020)

I was going to say "I'm not coming anywhere near you for a while" but was thinking the better of it


----------



## maomao (Feb 13, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> That might definitely put people off being tested.


Might attract some who otherwise wouldn't though.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

Supine said:


> Good interview with an epidemiologist
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Great stuff. Marc Lipsitch has been one of my best sources of info (in the media and his twitter account) since this thing became a big deal. It was him going on about Indonesia that tipped me off to the idea that they probably have undetected cases there, for example.

I see he was downplaying seasonal hopes, and pointing out that there is transmission in Singapore, and that country is tropical.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> That might definitely put people off being tested.



I should point out that I didnt come up with the rectal swab idea myself. It catches me offguard too sometimes when it appears in the literature. Just the other week I was happily reading about Pangolins as possible intermediate host animal, and then the rectal swabs interjected themselves into the discussion without warning.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> It catches me offguard too sometimes


That's a normal reaction.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> Here we go, welcome to the absurdities of containment show.
> 
> Will the virus respect the arbitrary numbers of our definition?
> 
> ...



It makes no sense at all. The driver should be quarantined and family compensated.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Are coronavirus tests flawed?
> 
> 
> Concerns are being raised about the accuracy of the tests for the coronavirus.
> ...



Yes and that's why journalists who can't be arsed to do five minutes' research should probably keep their potentially panic-inducing bullshit to themselves.

If people are being given multiple tests before diagnosis, what does that tell us? That the people responding are aware of the limitations of the testing and so are using multiple tests over a long time scale to avoid false negatives or discharging people who should be in quarrantine.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> ..
> I see he was downplaying seasonal hopes, and pointing out that there is transmission in Singapore, and that country is tropical.


I thought our super spreader caught his dose in Singapore .. or was it elsewhere?


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I thought our super spreader caught his dose in Singapore .. or was it elsewhere?



Yeah, the point wasnt that people catching it in Singapore was a new revelation, it wasnt. He was pointing it out as a reason not to overhype the potential of the seasons to stop the spread.

Its perfectly possible that seasons do have an impact, but whether that impact is a real difference-maker also depends on other factors unrelated to the seasons.

For example, the first big wave of swine flu in 2009 in the UK came in summer. But since then it has reverted to a seasonal pattern. It might very well be that the sheer quantity of potential candidates for infection was so high during the summer of the first wave (due to no existing immunity or vaccine), that seasonal effects of summer on transmission were not enough to stop widespread infection. But later, when there was more immunity in the population, the virus could only thrive with the help of winter conditions.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> Yes and that's why journalists who can't be arsed to do five minutes' research should probably keep their potentially panic-inducing bullshit to themselves.
> 
> If people are being given multiple tests before diagnosis, what does that tell us? That the people responding are aware of the limitations of the testing and so are using multiple tests over a long time scale to avoid false negatives or discharging people who should be in quarrantine.



The speed with which some cases have been ruled negative in the UK does not give me any indication that multiple tests over a period of time are being used for all the UK suspected cases. But I am aware that I only see a very partial picture via the press and official stats and statements.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 13, 2020)

Quite a reasonable article on the situation here in the UK here: 








						Britain's race to contain the coronavirus
					

Health officials are trying to contain the virus after a cluster of cases on the south coast. Can the virus be kept at bay?



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## bendeus (Feb 13, 2020)

Sorry if this has already been done in the thread but is there any indication as to whether it will be possible to catch coronavirus repeatedly as with a cold or flu (which I'm assuming would be the case) and, if so, if there would be the same level of risk in terms of severity/mortality each time it was caught or whether this would reduce with the body having built up some kind of immunity?


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> Yeah, the point wasnt that people catching it in Singapore was a new revelation, it wasnt. He was pointing it out as a reason not to overhype the potential of the seasons to stop the spread.
> 
> Its perfectly possible that seasons do have an impact, but whether that impact is a real difference-maker also depends on other factors unrelated to the seasons.
> 
> For example, the first big wave of swine flu in 2009 in the UK came in summer. But since then it has reverted to a seasonal pattern. It might very well be that the sheer quantity of potential candidates for infection was so high during the summer of the first wave (due to no existing immunity or vaccine), that seasonal effects of summer on transmission were not enough to stop widespread infection. But later, when there was more immunity in the population, the virus could only thrive with the help of winter conditions.



The NHS bloke was talking in terms of delaying any possible outbreak until a time when there was more spare capacity in hospitals, rather than any hope that better weather would improve outcomes for those infected. That being said, reports from frontline staff are that the 'winter crisis' is currently a year-round phenomenon. There's some hope for better preparations being made if an outbreak happens later rather than sooner but that will cost money and require political leadership, neither of which seems to be forthcoming.


----------



## Supine (Feb 13, 2020)

bendeus said:


> Sorry if this has already been done in the thread but is there any indication as to whether it will be possible to catch coronavirus repeatedly as with a cold or flu (which I'm assuming would be the case) and, if so, if there would be the same level of risk in terms of severity/mortality each time it was caught or whether this would reduce with the body having built up some kind of immunity?



looks like you might be immune for a year or two then back in the firing line.

I’ve had proper flu twice and hope not to experience it again. Luck plays a part unfortunately.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 13, 2020)

bendeus said:


> Sorry if this has already been done in the thread but is there any indication as to whether it will be possible to catch coronavirus repeatedly as with a cold or flu (which I'm assuming would be the case) and, if so, if there would be the same level of risk in terms of severity/mortality each time it was caught or whether this would reduce with the body having built up some kind of immunity?



A 'cold' is a type of infection caused by numerous kinds of bugs, including coronaviruses. Influenza mutates a lot more rapidly than other viruses and so is better equipped to outfox acquired immunity, which is why every year the 'flu vaccine contains two or three different strains and is still only really 'effective' when you consider whole populations over a timescale of several years. 

The reason this strain of coronavirus is of particular concern is that it's 'new' as far as human immunity is concerned. If it develops into a pandemic then those who are infected and recover should have improved immunity to it, and it'll eventually just be another part of the menagerie of nasty things that are already circulating and causing colds, fevers, pneumonia etc.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> The NHS bloke was talking in terms of delaying any possible outbreak until a time when there was more spare capacity in hospitals, rather than any hope that better weather would improve outcomes for those infected.



Yes, it has been other sources that have made hopeful noises about the seasons that were all about transmission rather than these other things.

There is one other reason I know of why they would prefer to delay a big outbreak till the summer too. It makes it quite a bit easier to assume that most of the cases you are seeing are this coronavirus, rather than all the other things people will get sick from a lot in winter. This assumption was used during the first swine flu peak in the summer of 2009. Not that those other winter bugs are entirely absent at other times of the year, but they are much reduced and less likely to muddy the waters. (the waters being when you are using symptoms rather than formal tests to diagnose cases).


----------



## weltweit (Feb 13, 2020)

I wonder what I was up to in 2009 because the swine flue seems to have escaped my notice.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I wonder what I was up to in 2009 because the swine flue seems to have escaped my notice.



Lucky you, I caught that, 3 weeks of hell, sweating like fuck, because it hit the UK in the summer months.

I've had flu a few times over the years, from mild to severe, but that was off the scale.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 13, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Lucky you, I caught that, 3 weeks of hell, sweating like fuck, because it hit the UK in the summer months.
> ..


A bit off topic, but was it spread person to person like this virus?


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> A bit off topic, but was it spread person to person like this virus?


cupid_stunt caught it when he was doing his David Cameron impersonation 🐷


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

I have no means to judge how many times I've had flu. I can say that I've only had one case of it that affected me really badly as an adult, and that was in 1998 or 99. I could easily have had it dozens of times with minimal symptoms compared to the real bad ones, there is no way for me to know.

Same with swine flu in 2009 (or any time since as it is now one of the seasonal strains). I've no idea whether I had it, if I did then my symptoms were minimal.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 13, 2020)

It was a bad case of flu that killed my mother.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> It was a bad case of flu that killed my mother.



Sorry to hear that. Do you mind if I ask what year?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> A bit off topic, but was it spread person to person like this virus?



TBH I have no idea of how I caught it, I hadn't been following the news, so wasn't aware it was a 'thing', it just hit me out of the blue, I was floored & couldn't believe I had what seemed like flu, but so much worst, in the middle of the summer.

I called the GP surgery, and was basically told to keep the fuck away, there was nowt they could do & it would pass in time.

It was the most ill I've ever been in all my life, I seriously thought I was going to die.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> A bit off topic, but was it spread person to person like this virus?



Person to person and human to human are very general terms, really just meant to distinguish from other stuff like animal to human, food to human.

When it comes to discussing the details of different transmission possibilities, its different terminology. Stuff about droplets and fomites, surface contamination, particular risks for healthcare workers (including 'mundane' stuff such as when changing patients bedding, not just operations and examinations etc), sewage and other faecal pathways. And whether coughs and sneezes are required, or whether normal human tidal breathing can still cause infection.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> Sorry to hear that. Do you mind if I ask what year?


Of course I should know the date, but I don't. It was sometime between Oct 1991 and November 1996. Probably around the middle of those dates.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 13, 2020)

fishfinger said:


> cupid_stunt caught it when he was doing his David Cameron impersonation 🐷



You cunt.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Of course I should know the date, but I don't. It was sometime between Oct 1991 and November 1996. Probably around the middle of those dates.



Thanks. I always think of my grandad when I talk about the 1998,99,2000 flu epidemic of H3N2. Pneumonia killed him, and I could not attend his funeral because this was the time I got real sick with the flu, and could not get out of bed. Even if I had been able to get up on the day, I would have been true afraid of passing it on to other people attending the funeral. Whether or not that particular flu epidemic was also responsible for his pneumonia and death I cannot say, but its plausible.

The 1980's and 1990's certainly had their fair share of flu epidemics, and I probably experienced at least one of the 1980's or early 90's ones while still a child at school. And if some of the things that I coughed up in my late teenage and early 20's years came out of me these days, I would assume I had a bit of pneumonia myself. I dont think I've actually had really bad flu since I became aware of all this medical and disease stuff, things that seemed quite normal when I was young and ignorant might cause more health alarm to me if I experience them in future!

I do not want to reduce your mum to a statistic on a graph, but the way my own mind worked I actually found it helpful to be able to place deaths in my own family into some kind of larger context, like an influenza epidemic. I havent looked for numbers covering that full date range you provided, but I will post this one that covers the final part of your date range and many years afterwards.


( from Highest number of excess winter deaths since 1999/2000 - Office for National Statistics )


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 13, 2020)

Let’s hope the speedy-fast vaccine they come up with doesn’t cause narcolepsy (as the swine flu vaccine did), or have other bad side effects. Doing these things fast can be dangerous.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> That may be in part because we arent looking for any cases that dont have such links, so we wont find any. That will only change by accident, ie stumbling into such a case, or because they change the criteria for suspecting Corvid-19.



I wonder how many times I am accidentally going to call this Corvid-19.

By the way some people are disgruntled by the way the COVID-19 name is used by the media. Because this name is supposed to refer to the disease. The actual classification used for the virus itself, still involves a different name (I'm not saying what right now because I dont want to mess up and get it wrong and I read too many confusing discussions about names recently on twitter and it scrambled my brain). So anyway they groan when the media call the virus COVID-19.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Let’s hope the speedy-fast vaccine they come up with doesn’t cause narcolepsy (as the swine flu vaccine did), or have other bad side effects. Doing these things fast can be dangerous.



Its certainly a lot better when there is a suitable amount of time to do the right trials to hopefully pick this sort of thing up before its given to a much wider population. Or when the extra time allows other methods of vaccine design or production to be used, ones that carry less known theoretical risk.

In that particular case it sounds like it was a combination of one particular make of swine flu vaccine, and genetic susceptibility to narcolepsy, probably plus some additional unknown factors that meant some people who met all the other criteria still didnt end up with narcolepsy. Not good anyway, and I think the UKs own estimate of risk was that about 1 in 55,000 people who had that vaccine would develop narcolepsy as a result. I think that figure is some years old though, I havent looked at subsequent studies.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 13, 2020)

People who get it in the US are going to be financially fucked too aren't they if they have to go to hospital?


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 13, 2020)

two sheds said:


> People who get it in the US are going to be financially fucked too aren't they if they have to go to hospital?



I was thinking about this too. Must be hard for the authorities to track or contain cases when there's such a powerful deterrent against going to hospital for so many people.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

If the WHO keep getting and sharing this 'lab confirmed' number, then we will still be able to see the trends in the 'old type' of numbers for China, in addition to the new ones.


----------



## elbows (Feb 13, 2020)

And another consequence of that is that the Johns Hopkins dashboard no longer shows similar numbers to the WHO one. Whether this will remain the case I cannot say.






						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com
				








__





						ArcGIS Dashboards Classic
					






					who.maps.arcgis.com


----------



## spring-peeper (Feb 13, 2020)

Televangelist sells $125 'Silver Solution' as cure for Coronavirus



> "Well, let's say 'Silver Solution" hasn't been tested on this strain of the coronavirus, but it's been tested on other strains of the coronavirus and has been able to eliminate it within 12 hours," she said. "Totally eliminate it. Kills it, deactivates it. And then it boosts your immune system so then you can support the recovery, because when you kill the virus, then the immune system comes into action to clear it out. So you want a vibrant immune system as well as an ability to deactivate these viruses."


----------



## Miss-Shelf (Feb 14, 2020)

Let's work at home


----------



## Combustible (Feb 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Most of the new cases are in Wuhan, so assuming this method is rolled out across the rest of Hubei province, and indeed across China, I guess we can expect some more big leaps in the official figures over the next few days.


From what I can tell other provinces are also using the new criteria, but other provinces didn't have the same massive backlog of tests, which was previously limiting the number of new cases. The city I'm in now has gone from around 10 new cases a day around a week ago to 2 or 3 a day over the last few days.


----------



## RedRedRose (Feb 14, 2020)

Can anyone comment on the difference between government response to H1N1 and the corona? Complaints of racism are doing the rounds.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> I've spoken to 2 people that work at Worthing Hospital, they are not concerned, this was a locum doctor that has only done 2 shifts in A&E at the hospital, on the 4th & 5th Feb.
> 
> What they are pissed off about is the media circus that has set-up on the pavement outside the grounds, having been refused permission to come onto the site - BBC, Sky & ITV news are all there, together with some newspaper reporters too, and that's spreading fear amongst some patients & staff.



That was Wednesday, they disappeared that evening & didn't return yesterday. Basically, they turned-up, did a few live 'reports' where they didn't add anything to the story, realised there was nothing to report, so fucked off again, having added to the fear amongst patients, staff & the wider community, the clowns.

I almost posted this last night, after speaking to my SiS to find out if she had heard anything at the hospital, she hadn't, but held off to see if it was confirmed by the hospital/media overnight, it hasn't been. 

Someone told me yesterday afternoon that two new cases had been discovered at Worthing hospital, I did ask if they were confirmed cases or if just people being tested, she said they were definitely confirmed cases. She is someone that should know better than to spread rumours, as she works at a children's nursery, and it wouldn't surprise if this became the main topic amongst staff & parents picking-up their children, causing widespread fear.

What was her source for this information? A fucking post on Facebook!   

A total of over 2,500 people have been tested in the UK, many that had been in contact with the various confirmed cases, and the number of positive cases remain just 9. Meanwhile out of the 6 cases in Sussex, one has fully recovered, and the other 5 are described as 'doing well', which is good news.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 14, 2020)

A major shortage of face masks, because China is the world's major manufacturer, means dentists are running out of them & will be unable to treat patients, some could run out of supplies from next week. 



> Some UK dentists may have to "down drills" if the shortage of face masks caused by the coronavirus outbreak continues, according to the British Dental Association.
> 
> All practices are now restricted to ordering 100 masks a day, leaving larger ones with several dentists running out of supplies.
> 
> Even NHS practices with just two dentists are "now likely to use up their allocation completely", the BDA says.











						Dentists threatened by coronavirus face-mask shortage
					

Some may have to "down drills" following curbs on how many they can order, the dentists' union says.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




I assume dentists will hold back limited supplies for urgent/emergency cases, but this could cause a major backlog of other cases.

It also begs the question as to if hospitals will be able to source enough supplies to keep functioning as normal, I guess probably not.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 14, 2020)

JCB is the first major UK manufacturer to announce they are cutting production, due to problems getting components from china.



> There will be reduced working hours for the 4,000 staff from Monday and an immediate suspension of overtime.
> 
> More than 25% of JCB's suppliers in China are closed, while others are working at reduced capacity.
> 
> ...











						JCB cuts production because of coronavirus
					

The heavy machinery manufacturer says the virus will cause a shortage of parts from China.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## brogdale (Feb 14, 2020)

😯😦😧😮😲🗣⛩🧨⏰🖤🆘⁉📢📣🇨🇳


----------



## sihhi (Feb 14, 2020)

Singapore reprts 9 new confirmed cases total now at 68. Apparently 14% are in critical condition, which gives a sense of how lethal this could all be.

Singapore is still hunting for the patient zero of the hotel outbreak.









						Tracking down COVID-19 ‘patient zero’ critical, authorities say
					

As lion dancers snaked between conference room tables laden with plastic bottles, pens, notebooks and laptops, some staff from British gas analytics firm Servomex snapped photos of the performance meant to bring good luck and fortune.




					www.news.com.au
				




_Been looking at this again: Epidemiological and clinical features of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China

About 25.5%, 69.9% and 4.5% patients were diagnosed with severe pneumonia, mild pneumonia, and non-pneumonia, respectively. 

The overall CFR was estimated be 3.06% (95% CI 2.02-4.59%) 

The R0 was estimated to be 3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05), ranging 2.23-4.82 in sensitivity analyses varying the incubation and infectious periods._

The 3% fatality rate, 95% contracting some level of pneumonia mean this thing is simply a juggernaut, waiting to explode.


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 14, 2020)

14% seems unusually high.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 14, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> Televangelist sells $125 'Silver Solution' as cure for Coronavirus


Before I even clicked the link I thought it would be that survivalist food idiot.


----------



## Supine (Feb 14, 2020)

sihhi said:


> The 3% fatality rate, 95% contracting some level of pneumonia mean this thing is simply a juggernaut, waiting to explode.



Bit OTT on the scaremongering


----------



## a_chap (Feb 14, 2020)

About a week ago my dentist tweeted that members of the public were coming into his practise asking if he could sell them face masks! He said he was going to start storing them under lock and key.

Face masks, that is, not members of the public.


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 14, 2020)

brogdale said:


> 😯😦😧😮😲🗣⛩🧨⏰🖤🆘⁉📢📣🇨🇳
> 
> View attachment 198483



What is is that?  If someone thinks this is a black swan they clearly don't know what a black swan is.


----------



## Supine (Feb 14, 2020)

Lots of focus on drug supply as China manufacturers a huge number of API's. The industry will scale-up manufacturing outside of China to compensate where possible. 









						How will coronavirus hit U.S. drugmakers? Depends what kind of drugmaker you are: Moody's
					

There’s no doubt the novel coronavirus outbreak poses a major threat to people’s health. But for U.S. biopharma companies, the fallout isn't as certain—and some will likely suffer more than others, Moody’s said. Branded drugmakers may see decreased demand while generics players face disrupted...




					www.fiercepharma.com


----------



## Virtual Blue (Feb 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Lucky you, I caught that, 3 weeks of hell, sweating like fuck, because it hit the UK in the summer months.
> 
> I've had flu a few times over the years, from mild to severe, but that was off the scale.



My mate caught Swine Flu when he lived in Miami.
It fucked him up for 3 months.


----------



## elbows (Feb 14, 2020)

RedRedRose said:


> Can anyone comment on the difference between government response to H1N1 and the corona? Complaints of racism are doing the rounds.



In my opinion the key difference in the response to H1N1 compared to this coronavirus came from the top internationally, and this affected how individual nations then behaved.

With H1N1, within days of this new flu being disclosed publicly, the World Health Organisation concluded that a strategy of attempting containment was not viable. This is a total contrast to this coronavirus, where the World Health Organisation and others decided to try containment.

These differences do not surprise me, for a number of reasons. Firstly there is no general expectation of containing a flu outbreak if the flu has achieved efficient human to human transmission. When new forms of bird flu were spotted, containment was the order of the day, because there was only limited human to human transmission, no widespread community outbreaks, etc. But by the time they got a handle on the H1N1 swine flu, there had already been some very large community outbreaks in Mexico, and evidence of community spread in parts of the USA too.

Even then, there were still some consideration by some countries of restricting travel to Mexico, and warnings about travel to the USA and Mexico were issued. But the global spread was seen as inevitable, and this affected how individual countries responded, and the length of time that most of the focus fell on countries like Mexico and the USA.

There is no doubt in my mind that racism and politics has also played a part in the response to this coronavirus. And the phase with the biggest opportunities for this to happen has been more elongated already with this coronavirus than it was with H1N1, because we have this prolonged containment phase this time that was absent before. Chinas reputation as a censoring, authoritarian one party state, inevitably sets it up for suspicion and mistrust. And it can be hard to separate all the legitimate criticisms along those lines from other attitudes to China that are unfair, racist, prejudiced, the lingering dregs of Orientalism. Its there in different degrees in different media too, for example its more blatant in the New York Times than the Guardian, but in some ways its more scary when its done in a more insidious way.


----------



## 2hats (Feb 14, 2020)

Recent mathematical modelling (Dorigatti et al, 10 Feb, scaled from a non-parametric Kaplan-Meier-like method previously used for SARS) puts the overall case fatality ratio at 0.9% (95% CI 0.5%-4%).

Separately I note comorbidities appear to be diabetes and hypertension, possibly along with an as yet unidentified genetic factor.


----------



## elbows (Feb 14, 2020)

2hats said:


> Separately I note comorbidities appear to be diabetes and hypertension, possibly along with an as yet unidentified genetic factor.



If early hunches turn out to have any relevance to the genetic factor, it could be the prevalence of ACE2 in certain tissue. I havent seen enough quality data about ACE2 prevalence, I know there was an early study on this that suggested that asians might have more ACE2, but this was based on only 8 lung samples! And a subsequent study disagreed. Being male and a smoker is also suggested to increase ACE2, but I draw no conclusions from this limited research.


----------



## elbows (Feb 14, 2020)

Regarding racism and the media, different framing of the same article can make a big difference too.

The New York Times recently faced a twitter backlash, deleted a tweet and reissued it with rather different wording....


----------



## Miss-Shelf (Feb 14, 2020)

Saw this on twitter
Apparently he does daily updates


----------



## elbows (Feb 14, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> 14% seems unusually high.



Stuff I read but dont have to hand right now suggests there are actually 6 cases still in critical care in Singapore.


----------



## kalidarkone (Feb 14, 2020)

Miss-Shelf said:


> Let's work at home


That will totally negate my work


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 14, 2020)

kalidarkone said:


> That will totally negate my work



But what a time to be a criminal!  What are the police going to do?  Catch you by telephone?


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 14, 2020)

2hats said:


> Recent mathematical modelling (Dorigatti et al, 10 Feb, scaled from a non-parametric Kaplan-Meier-like method previously used for SARS) puts the overall case fatality ratio at 0.9% (95% CI 0.5%-4%).
> 
> Separately I note comorbidities appear to be diabetes and hypertension, possibly along with an as yet unidentified genetic factor.



0.9% is at the better end of the early range of predictions at least.


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (Feb 14, 2020)

Relatable...


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 14, 2020)

sihhi said:


> The 3% fatality rate, 95% contracting some level of pneumonia mean this thing is simply a juggernaut, waiting to explode.



Do juggernauts explode, as a rule?


----------



## Cid (Feb 14, 2020)

It’s powderkegs that explode, juggernauts don’t stop.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 14, 2020)

Unless they're filled with explosives


----------



## brogdale (Feb 14, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> What is is that?  If someone thinks this is a black swan they clearly don't know what a black swan is.


Was havin' a laff...but do feel free, if you want to...


----------



## 2hats (Feb 14, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> 0.9% is at the better end of the early range of predictions at least.


Depending on how long infected individuals test positive for it could be even lower.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 14, 2020)

2hats said:


> Depending on how long infected individuals test positive for it could be even lower.



I assume a certain percentage of cases going undetected has been factored into the modelling.


----------



## maomao (Feb 14, 2020)

Do they use a fresh mask for each patient then? You'd think they'd just wash them.


----------



## xenon (Feb 14, 2020)

m being thick here right. But what's the big panic. lazy media bullshit aside. What's the big deal about this thing anyway. It has a 98% survival rate. Is it the risk it will mutate into something more lethal? But virus's don't tend to do that, as they need a living host. I mean it's no Spannish flu is it.

I don't get all the fuss TBH.
🤷


----------



## maomao (Feb 14, 2020)

xenon said:


> m being thick here right. But what's the big panic. lazy media bullshit aside. What's the big deal about this thing anyway. It has a 98% survival rate. Is it the risk it will mutate into something more lethal? But virus's don't tend to do that, as they need a living host. I mean it's no Spannish flu is it.
> 
> I don't get all the fuss TBH.
> 🤷


If half the country got it 2% dead would be well over half a million people. In this country.


----------



## xenon (Feb 14, 2020)

maomao said:


> If half the country got it 2% dead would be well over half a million people. In this country.



Yes good point. Should have thought about it a bit longer.  Of course, whilst a number like that is stark, the sheer chaos of having the other 98% of a large population incompacitated to a lesser or greater degree will fuck all sorts of things up.


<resumes panic mode>


----------



## Supine (Feb 14, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> I assume a certain percentage of cases going undetected has been factored into the modelling.



Where factored in = guestimate


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 14, 2020)

maomao said:


> Do they use a fresh mask for each patient then? You'd think they'd just wash them.



Yes, and so do the dental nurses, so it could be 2 or 3 masks per patient. 



> *Masks* must be changed when they become wet with saliva or other bodily fluids, as they lose their protective properties. *Surgical masks* are not tested against specific microorganisms and do not prevent specific diseases. Never *reuse*, wash or disinfect *surgical masks*. Never share *surgical masks* with others.


----------



## maomao (Feb 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Yes, and so do the dental nurses, so it could be 2 or 3 masks per patient.


That just seems like a massive waste to me. Are they disposed of or sent back for re sterilising?


----------



## a_chap (Feb 14, 2020)

maomao said:


> If half the country got it 2% dead would be well over half a million people. In this country.



Which would certainly help traffic congestion, thankfully.


----------



## Miss-Shelf (Feb 14, 2020)

T





> Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) medication is being rationed, with women being warned they could struggle to get hold of patches for nearly a year.
> The problem is thought to have started last year when Theramex stopped production because of issues manufacturing the glue for their patches, which are made in China, forcing customers towards other brands.


  from HRT drugs rationed amid UK shortage set to last for months

There's already drug supply problems [interesting link here - *this explanation* of HRT drought in UK] from the complex supply chains and market mechanisms 
It may not take much for supplies of vital drugs to run low/empty if different parts of the supply chain use products from China


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 14, 2020)

maomao said:


> That just seems like a massive waste to me. Are they disposed of or sent back for re sterilising?



They are disposable, they shouldn't be re-used, so no.


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Feb 14, 2020)

It's been said elsewhere but masks don't really help anyway. If you know you are infectious yourself you should ideally wear one, but otherwise you need to wash your hands a lot and not touch your face. (The latter being very hard to do.) So don't worry too much about getting masks. Not that you should anyway in the U.K.


----------



## tim (Feb 14, 2020)

maomao said:


> If half the country got it 2% dead would be well over half a million people. In this country.



With this and BREXIT "_Olde England"_ doesn't seem so very far away


----------



## Celyn (Feb 14, 2020)

Ach, du lieber Augustin ...


----------



## Supine (Feb 14, 2020)

Blimey. Some expert on c4 just said 60% of the UK population could need infected in the next 12 months. With 400 thousand deaths 

They did say other people disagree with these figures.


----------



## elbows (Feb 14, 2020)

Supine said:


> Blimey. Some expert on c4 just said 60% of the UK population could need infected in the next 12 months. With 400 thousand deaths
> 
> They did say other people disagree with these figures.



I didnt see it but he's been saying that for a while now. I'll go and have a look for what I read, which will be easier when I remember his name.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 14, 2020)

Supine said:


> ..
> They did say other people disagree with these figures.


Was that the BBC News on radio four? if so I heard it as well, one speaker said that a 2% fatality rate wasn't very bad, and the response was something like if the whole population of Britain was infected it would be hundreds of thousands dead.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 14, 2020)

Supine said:


> Blimey. Some expert on c4 just said 60% of the UK population could need infected in the next 12 months. With 400 thousand deaths
> 
> They did say other people disagree with these figures.



Why are the fucking media spreading this scaremongering?

Over 2500 people in the UK have been tested, only 9 have been positive.

Sure things could change, nuclear war could happen by accident, aliens could turn-up tomorrow & destroy the whole planet, we have no control over what could happen.

Focus on the here & now, focus on the facts, keep calm & carry on.


----------



## elbows (Feb 14, 2020)

Facts that should be shared do include estimates for infection rates in the event of a widespread outbreak.

They have to say this stuff before it actually happens, otherwise if the containment strategy doesnt work then people will go crazy 'why didnt you warn us? why did you make it sound like containment was far more likely than this massive outbreak that we are suddenly faced with, with no prior mental preparation?'


----------



## weltweit (Feb 14, 2020)

Small China update: 


> In China alone, more than 63,000 people have been infected with the virus, and 1,381 have died.
> 
> Outside China, there have been 505 cases in 24 countries, and two deaths.
> 
> ...











						Coronavirus: Beijing orders 14-day quarantine for returnees
					

The latest restriction comes as the death toll from the coronavirus outbreak passes 1,500.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Feb 14, 2020)

Was it Neil Ferguson? He is one of the UK people who have been going on about the 60% thing this week.

But it was Leung from Hong Kong university that really first caught some of the medias eye with it earlier in the week: Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked'

Its not uk specific.


----------



## Supine (Feb 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Why are the fucking media spreading this scaremongering?
> 
> Over 2500 people in the UK have been tested, only 9 have been positive.
> 
> ...



They're talking about these numbers because containment from lockdowns might not contain it. 

The same thing happened with Ebola but it was so fatal the outbreaks burnt themselves out, because people died before it could spread far. Less fatal infections have time to spread further so _could_ do more damage.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> Facts that should be shared do include estimates for infection rates in the event of a widespread outbreak.
> 
> They have to say this stuff before it actually happens, otherwise if the containment strategy doesnt work then people will go crazy 'why didnt you warn us? why did you make it sound like containment was far more likely than this massive outbreak that we are suddenly faced with, with no prior mental preparation?'



I totally disagree, we only have 9 cases in the UK, this is not the time to be scaremongering. 

If & when it appears it could be getting out of control, then there is a reason to explain how bad it could get, but we a far from that point.

I am sick of hearing bullshit locally over the last few days, because one GP from Brighton happened to do a couple of shifts at Worthing hospital, and otherwise sane people are panicking because of the media hype & total bullshit being spread via social media.  

The OP of this this thread is a major doom & gloom merchant, they were claiming on the main thread that something like a whole village had been wiped out & they were having a bonfire of the dead.


----------



## elbows (Feb 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> I totally disagree, we only have 9 cases in the UK, this is not the time to be scaremongering.



Guess how effective containment is if there is absolutely no fear involved.


----------



## Jeremiah18.17 (Feb 14, 2020)

Again, we seem to be in some surreal black comedy:
The latest stories are about warnings going out to 200 attendees, including MPs, at a bus conference.








						Health officials contact 200 including MPs over UK coronavirus scare
					

People attended London conference with delegate who has since tested positive




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> Guess how effective containment is if there is absolutely no fear involved.



There doesn't need to be nationwide fear for containment to work among very small & isolated cases in a couple of areas.

FFS, Sussex has had 6 out of the 9 cases, one recovered & others are doing well, close contacts have been traced & tested, and no further cases found so far. 

2 cases in York a week or so ago, no further cases reported there.

The latest case is one in London, if that takes-off there's fuck-all chance of containment anyway.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> There doesn't need to be nationwide fear for containment to work among very small & isolated cases in a couple of areas.
> 
> FFS, Sussex has had 6 out of the 9 cases, one recovered & others are doing well, close contacts have been traced & tested, and no further cases found so far.
> 
> ...



Massively underestimating risk is very common. The risk is manageable you dont not have to panic, stick your head in the sand or feel there’s nothing we can do if there’s a widespread outbreak.
There’s things we can all do to reduce the risk and it doesnt involve anything dramatic.


----------



## elbows (Feb 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> There doesn't need to be nationwide fear for containment to work among very small & isolated cases in a couple of areas.
> 
> FFS, Sussex has had 6 out of the 9 cases, one recovered & others are doing well, close contacts have been traced & tested, and no further cases found so far.
> 
> ...



I understand the frustration with certain scaremongering stuff, trying to balance and fact-check stuff like that is one of the reasons I post so much when these things happen.

But we are not going to agree on the main bone of contention here. Public health officials always have to try to balance the prevention of panic, with trying to get people to pay sufficient attention to things in the first place. A public campaign has been activated that requires general public attention and cooperation, and its been a far bigger effort already, with far greater geographical spread, than the confirmed cases you focus on would suggest.

Otherwise too many people say 'I dont care', dont do their bit, and refuse to cooperate because they dont understand the point. They think everything is an overreaction, and they react in all sorts of unhelpful ways when they are prevented from going about their lives as if nothing was happening.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 14, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Massively underestimating risk is very common. The risk is manageable you dont not have to panic, stick your head in the sand or feel there’s nothing we can do if there’s a widespread outbreak.
> There’s things we can all do to reduce the risk and it doesnt involve anything dramatic.



No one is underestimating the risk, it's clear there's a risk, and sensible advice is out there, and as you say following that advice doesn't involve anything dramatic, which is what we need, a common sense approach.

What we are getting from the media, however, is an overestimating of the risk at present, which is spreading panic, and indeed racism towards the Chinese & other Asians in the UK.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> No one is underestimating the risk, it's clear there's a risk, and sensible advice is out there, and as you say following that advice doesn't involve anything dramatic, which is what we need, a common sense approach.
> 
> What we are getting from the media, however, is an overestimating of the risk at present, which is spreading panic, and indeed racism towards the Chinese & other Asians in the UK.



The current mortality rate is above 2%. The table below is from the CDC to help judge the severity of a pandemic. The most severe level only requires 2%. Yes, many experts are predicting this figure will drop. All we can do now is work with the figures we have. Over the coming weeks we will have a better idea of the nature of covid-19.


----------



## Supine (Feb 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> What we are getting from the media, however, is an overestimating of the risk at present, which is spreading panic, and indeed racism towards the Chinese & other Asians in the UK.



I don't know who it was but it was an 'expert' in the field I saw interviewed on C4. Not the same as saying the media are just twisting things. He may well be wrong but maybe not.


----------



## seeformiles (Feb 14, 2020)

I was in a Chinese supermarket in the centre of Leeds this morning (buying some cashew nuts in case you’re interested)  and all the cashiers were wearing all manner of pretective gear (gloves, masks, hoods, the lot..) - very surreal


----------



## seeformiles (Feb 14, 2020)

Celyn said:


> Ach, du lieber Augustin ...



Alles ist Tod..


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> I understand the frustration with certain scaremongering stuff, trying to balance and fact-check stuff like that is one of the reasons I post so much when these things happen.
> 
> But we are not going to agree on the main bone of contention here. Public health officials always have to try to balance the prevention of panic, with trying to get people to pay sufficient attention to things in the first place. A public campaign has been activated that requires general public attention and cooperation, and its been a far bigger effort already, with far greater geographical spread, than the confirmed cases you focus on would suggest.
> 
> Otherwise too many people say 'I dont care', dont do their bit, and refuse to cooperate because they dont understand the point. They think everything is an overreaction, and they react in all sorts of unhelpful ways when they are prevented from going about their lives as if nothing was happening.



But, most of the advice & comments from PHE, the NHS, and most experts are reasoned & sensible.

Then you get the odd maverick 'expert' coming out with the very worst case scenario, and guess who gets the most media coverage?

Have you not seen the fucking headlines from the tabloids over the last few days?

They are loving it, and spreading fear with shit like this...

London on the BRINK: Coronavirus panic as fears disease could obliterate the capital mount.

Doctors warn that London Underground could be hotbed for coronavirus.

Coronavirus: Fears 400,000 Brits could die from bug as pregnant GP says 'I'm scared'


----------



## StoneRoad (Feb 14, 2020)

On the radio 4 program "more or less" which examines statistics & items in the news today (Feb14th)

There was a discussion on the accuracy of reported fatality and confirmed infection rates for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak.
The problem of "mild" cases missing from the records was one point raised.

Too much detail to repeat here as I was driving and didn't record the information.


----------



## Celyn (Feb 14, 2020)

seeformiles said:


> I was in a Chinese supermarket in the centre of Leeds this morning (buying some cashew nuts in case you’re interested)  and all the cashiers were wearing all manner of pretective gear (gloves, masks, hoods, the lot..) - very surreal


Perhaps they were just advertising that they now had all that stuff in stock.


----------



## elbows (Feb 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> But, most of the advice & comments from PHE, the NHS, and most experts are reasoned & sensible.



I always keep in mind that they arent operating in a vacuum, it would be interesting to see if they would have to adjust their message if they were. Because they are used to operating in an environment where the public have had more than enough of the scarier stuff from the media, and other experts talking in the media, leaving the official public health mouthpieces to play the reassuring role.

It is fair to say though that the WHO did not like the 60% stuff, one of their heads of their emergency response to Covid-19 was complaining about it the other day, and saying that these sorts of numbers were not helpful at this stage.


StoneRoad said:


> On the radio 4 program "more or less" which examines statistics & items in the news today (Feb14th)
> 
> There was a discussion on the accuracy of reported fatality and confirmed infection rates for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak.
> The problem of "mild" cases missing from the records was one point raised.
> ...



Yeah thats one of the reasons I can sometimes be found boring on about why I dont take various mortality rates seriously at this stage.

I am difficult to please though because I do want such calculations and estimates to be done and shared, but I moan when they are misrepresented or when people take them at face value. I'm pretty sure my stance on all these things does feature a few contradictions at times as well.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 14, 2020)

Worth reading to see how again anecdotally but the (usually for HIV patients) antiviral Lopinavir/ritonavir brand name Kaletra or Aluvia seems to have been effective

*This is what it feels like to have Covid-19 coronavirus*


----------



## sihhi (Feb 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> They are loving it, and spreading fear with shit like this...
> 
> London on the BRINK: Coronavirus panic as fears disease could obliterate the capital mount.
> 
> ...



That's a tabloid newspaper reporting on Channel 4's interviews. These concerns are very real.

*Another told how "Patients get unreliable, inconsistent and potentially dangerous advice from 111. High risk patients are still being told to see their GP."*


----------



## Puddy_Tat (Feb 14, 2020)

Jeremiah18.17 said:


> The latest stories are about warnings going out to 200 attendees, including MPs, at a bus conference.



two of the senior managers at my place were at that conference...


----------



## elbows (Feb 15, 2020)

Clinical info about the first case detected in Canada:



			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30370-6/fulltext
		




> The presentation with fever, cough, and bilateral pneumonia is typical of most cases described so far. However, only a minority of previously reported cases had thrombocytopenia—and this was a worrying feature in our patient. Yet despite significant radiographic abnormalities, our patient remained well and did not require intubation or supplemental oxygen—unlike many cases with similar x-ray findings reported so far. This case highlights the milder spectrum of pneumonia caused by 2019-nCoV. Further, it suggests that the identification of individuals—like our patient—who could be managed by being quarantined at home, rather than in hospital, might be an important strategy for containing this outbreak.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 15, 2020)

Over 1500 deaths recorded.


----------



## elbows (Feb 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> Good interview with an epidemiologist
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I know on another thread we've been talking about the 60% could be infected in a year thing thats been doing the rounds in the media. Marc Lipsitch had his own version of that sort of thing, sying that if a pandemic happens, 40%-70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. But he wasnt too thrilled about being quoted all over the place without the full context of what he said, which included not knowing what proportion will be symptomatic. So he made a whole bunch of twitter posts about it, which can be read as a single thread here: Thread by @mlipsitch: I did actually say the quote that is going around, but the article contained vital context -- we don't know what proportion are symptomatic.…

What he is saying there is very quotable but I should resist the urge to quote a mere fraction of it.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 15, 2020)

Have Neil Ferguson’s latest comments been quoted on here yet? 1% fatality rate amongst 60% of 66m UK population would be 395,000 deaths in the next year.



> Professor Neil Ferguson, from the School of Public Health, Imperial College London, has been working for weeks to model the virus. He said: "I would much prefer to be accused of overreacting than under-reacting. This virus is the one which probably concerns me the most out of everything I've worked on."
> 
> He added: "Given we know a lot about how these viruses are spread we have lots of data from past epidemics. Given how transmissible this virus appears to be and that fact that at least all adults can be infected, we have much less data in children, then 60 per cent is a reasonable figure. Within the first 12 months or so. What we don’t know at the moment is of everybody infected, what proportion might die and what are the risk groups? Our best estimates at the moment is that maybe one per cent of people who get infected might die.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 15, 2020)

Cid said:


> It’s powderkegs that explode, juggernauts don’t stop.



So as a possibly unstoppable thing that could explode, this outbreak is either a potential juggerkeg or powdernaut.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 15, 2020)

Miss-Shelf said:


> Saw this on twitter
> Apparently he does daily updates





He's got a bit of a tickly cough right there.
🤔


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 15, 2020)

BREAKING NEWS - and it's great fucking news for the UK 8 out of 9 cases have now been given the all-clear & are being discharged. 

Meanwhile in France, sadly one 80-year old Chinese national has died, but 4 out of the other 10 are ready for discharge, and there's no concerns over the other 6.


----------



## elbows (Feb 15, 2020)

Its not surprising to me that cases in some countries other than China have given us a better sense of the milder cases. In addition to that UK news, there are more signs of this from France:



> They were at the same chalet as Walsh, a scout leader from Hove, who was the first British national identified as having caught the virus. He said on Tuesday that he had fully recovered.
> 
> In a statement, the five group members said: “All of our group, including the six in other countries, have recovered quickly from the virus having required minimal medical treatment during our time in isolation.
> 
> “We understand the virus can be dangerous for some, but we also want to share the important facts of our situation to help reassure people.



From Guardian live updates page. 1h ago 14:13


----------



## weltweit (Feb 15, 2020)

An article about the potential of the factories of China to possibly restart work next week .. 









						Coronavirus: Much of 'the world's factory' still shut
					

Apple supplier Foxconn and global car makers have kept Chinese plants closed because of the coronavirus.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Supine (Feb 15, 2020)

I know someone who is self isolated due to being at a conference with somebody found positive. Feels fine so starting a Netflix, cake and wine binge for a couple of weeks.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> I know someone who is self isolated due to being at a conference with somebody found positive. Feels fine so starting a Netflix, cake and wine binge for a couple of weeks.


My closest work colleague went to an exhibition last week, I know the risks are low but it might have been unwise. And there is a European electronics exhibition soon which has been cancelled after many of the more important exhibitors pulled out quoting the importance of the health of their workers.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 15, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> BREAKING NEWS - and it's great fucking news for the UK 8 out of 9 cases have now been given the all-clear & are being discharged.
> 
> Meanwhile in France, sadly one 80-year old Chinese national has died, but 4 out of the other 10 are ready for discharge, and there's no concerns over the other 6.


That's great news


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 15, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> That's great news



Fucking is for Worthing, I can tell, the fucking panic, from some otherwise sane people, has been very distributing TBH.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 15, 2020)

The US plans to evacuate Americans from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the site of the biggest coronavirus outbreak outside China, officials say.









						Coronavirus: US to evacuate citizens from Diamond Princess
					

The move comes as the global death toll from the coronavirus outbreak passes 1,500.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 15, 2020)

Just to add the GP that did 2 shifts at Worthing Hospital on Tue 4th & Wed 5th doesn't seem to have infected anyone, we're not totally in the clear until next Wed., but the odds are looking good.

* He was one of the cases discharged today.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The US plans to evacuate Americans from the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the site of the biggest coronavirus outbreak outside China, officials say.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The UK & EU should be doing the same.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 15, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> The UK & EU should be doing the same.


Do you know how many UK citizens are aboard?


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 15, 2020)

This is a Chinese chef I follow on YouTube, he filmed his journey to visit his uncle in the countryside. I thought it was interesting that although they’ve closed the village to visitors from outside, there’s  apparently nothing amiss in coming out of the village to meet at the checkpoint!  Doesn’t that defeat the point a bit?!  If the checkpoint becomes the meeting place, then those manning the checkpoint must be at greatest risk of infection.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Feb 15, 2020)

sniffle at work = mandatory 2 weeks off now

my team is just me at the minute


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 15, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> sniffle at work = mandatory 2 weeks off now
> 
> my team is just me at the minute



I, like a lot of other people, cannot afford to take two weeks off work. I would expect this to be a major factor in rates of transmission if this thing goes big here in the UK.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 15, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> sniffle at work = mandatory 2 weeks off now
> 
> my team is just me at the minute



self isolating at place of work


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Do you know how many UK citizens are aboard?


No idea.

My comment was with regards to that cruise ship, we should be bringing UK & EU citizens back from that, as we did from Wuhan.


----------



## maomao (Feb 15, 2020)

When it's got to the point where it's popping up at random workplaces on the opposite side of the world it's probably past containment. 

I have a cold. My wife has something fluey. Would cost billions to track one particular virus in uk sniffle season.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 15, 2020)

maomao said:


> When it's got to the point where it's popping up at random workplaces on the opposite side of the world it's probably past containment.



Where has this happened?


----------



## elbows (Feb 15, 2020)

On a relate note to that question, since I have previously mentioned that I was expecting to get a better sense of pandemic potential in Feb/by the end of Feb, here is a brief mid-month report on where my thinking is at.

The threshold of inevitably has still not quite been crossed for me. But it remains only a step or two away. Nothing has happened or been discovered that makes me think a pandemic is less likely, quite the opposite. Everything from the various China numbers, numbers in some other countries, test capacity and reliability issues, anecdotes and reports on mild and asymptomatic cases, and what stages a risk of infection may be present during, makes containment harder.

I was previous working with some binary assumptions in mind, in the sense that I was thinking that the attempted containment phase, if it became obviously unsuccessful/a lost cause, would simply be abandoned and we would move on to a pandemic phase with very different restrictions and priorities. But it now seems possible that even if full containment is deemed a lost cause, we might have a lengthy period where various countries are still engaging in various forms of isolation, in order to attempt to slow the spread. But there is probably not much point saying more on this unless such a phase actually happens.

Some countries look like they have obvious potential to be the ones to bring us news and a change of message from the authorities that will indicate we have reached a new phase. As I have mentioned previously, Singapore has already set the scene for this with various public statements, and their statistics about cases they havent managed to connect to known clusters of outbreak are one to watch. Japan is another one to watch, not because of the disgraceful cruise ship situation and infections, but because of some cases popping up in various locations that might be signs of broader community spread. But I have some more reading to do on that one, some very recent official comments from Japan seem noteworthy but machine translation of Japanese to English isnt great, so I am not ready to talk about the detail of this properly yet at all. The USA might also end up acting as a useful beacon because I believe I read that they are now starting a broader detection effort in 5 locations. They will test people in these places who present to healthcare facilities with certain clinical symptoms (eg pneumonia) who dont fit any of the other criteria (travel to certain places, contact with known cases) and in this way, any broader community spread should eventually be detected. Of course it could also be events and discoveries in any other country that signal the need to move to a new phase, including the UK, but in the meantime the countries I just mentioned are where I will direct a lot of my attention.


----------



## elbows (Feb 15, 2020)

I suspect it would be a bad idea to let my Japan comment hang there with no further detail, so here is what I am on about:



> *"The route of infection has disappeared"*
> 
> On the other hand, regarding the situation of infected people in various places in various places, "There are a number of situations where the path of infection that had been seen so far has become invisible as a phase. We recognize that the situation has changed." Said.
> 
> Then, on the evening of the 16th, the "New Coronavirus Infectious Disease Experts' Meeting" will be held at the Prime Minister's Office to discuss guidelines and other guidelines for the public to seek medical attention in preparation for future spread of infection. Was shown.



machine translated from 新型ウイルス 加藤厚労相 「感染経路見えなくなってきた」 | NHKニュース

If you look at a translated version of that page, beware that the likes of google translate do a terrible job with Japanese dates. Gets all the months wrong, eg much of the article is talking about the boat and there is junk in the translation incorrectly referring to June and March. And I know from the Fukushima nuclear accident that the meaning of statements is easily mangled or obscured. So I'm off to look for stuff relating to this statement that doesnt require any machine translation.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 15, 2020)

Well I for one am very glad that the cases so far in the UK seem to have petered out. Here is hoping it never gets a foothold outside of China. 

I saw maps recently that suggested Shenzen is as affected as Hubei now which is bad news for the Chinese containment strategy. And Shenzen iirc is where Foxconn is located where they were hoping to start iPhone etc production again shortly, albeit with a part of their normal compliment of workers. Foxconn is also trying to produce masks in some volumes, perhaps it is necessary that they get at least that part of their factory going.


----------



## elbows (Feb 15, 2020)

Yes I didnt mean to ignore China, and I think we have now entered the period where experts would be hoping to start to see some positive signs that containment had some effect. But as with most other topics I am reliant on other people to make these observations and tell us about them, and its probably a bit too soon for much of that yet. 

Its also possible we will get a slightly different picture out of China over the next few weeks because the WHO team is finally starting work there. I have no real expectations either way on this, it might be extremely mundane (the WHO often is for reasons I discussed in the past and wont bore on about now) or an important new picture might be revealed to us.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I saw maps recently that suggested Shenzen is as affected as Hubei now which is bad news for the Chinese containment strategy.



No time to post much but as of official figures on 15 Feb. Hubei's largest city Wuhan has unresolved 48,128 confirmed cases and 1,123 deaths. Shenzhen is bad and going to work as normal will make it worse, but it has 291 unresolved confirmed cases and no deaths.
Shenzhen's official population is over a million more than Wuhan at around 13 million.
I can't really trust the stats though.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 15, 2020)

deleted


----------



## sihhi (Feb 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> sihhi you sure about that deaths in Wuhan figure because last I heard it was about 1,500



Typed it wrong 1123 Wuhan, 1457 all Hubei, plus 67 from the rest of China.


----------



## elbows (Feb 15, 2020)

Ok here is the background to the Japan stuff, this is from a couple of days ago:









						None of Japan's new coronavirus patients had direct China links
					

First death raises fear that virus is quietly spreading




					asia.nikkei.com
				






> TOKYO -- Japan's first domestic coronavirus victim and three patients newly confirmed Thursday had no direct connections to China, raising concerns that a stealth outbreak is already under way in the country.
> 
> The Japanese government said Thursday that a Kanagawa Prefecture woman in her 80s died from the coronavirus. Her son-in-law also tested positive for the disease. Additionally, a doctor in Wakayama Prefecture and a man in Chiba Prefecture are confirmed to have the virus. None of them traveled to China recently or had contact with people who visited Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak.





> Kato added that "there is no epidemiological data suggesting a domestic [coronavirus] epidemic."



There are lots more details in the article, plenty of which are a cause for concern.

It isnt much fun thinking that community outbreaks can occur for quite some time before they are detected, but thats been a possibility in many places for some time now. And signs of this either happening, or not, were a huge part of the reason I expected to know a lot more about how this is going to pan out by the end of Feb. When in a less than optimistic mood, I expected to hear the sort of thing we are now hearing from Japan before now. And its still too early to read too much into these Japanese cases, but its a warning sign for sure. And when in a more optimistic mood, and before the new messages from Singapore and Japan, I though that if we got to the end of Feb without any of this stuff emerging, it would be a positive sign for chances of containment working. If there is no further news of this sort from Singapore or Japan or anywhere else this month then I will still think that, that containment is not quite a lost cause yet.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 15, 2020)

elbows 

Given that the virus can remain virile for 9 days on surfaces, it is possible the Japanese who went to Hawaii got it from the airport or some such public space?


----------



## weltweit (Feb 15, 2020)

The map I was thinking of is on this page:








						Coronavirus: China and the virus that threatens everything
					

With the country reeling from the massive public health disaster, what might it mean for the economy, society and those in power?



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Feb 15, 2020)

sihhi said:


> elbows
> 
> Given that the virus can remain virile for 9 days on surfaces, it is possible the Japanese who went to Hawaii got it from the airport or some such public space?



I doubt it could be ruled out, so its a possibility, yes. I'd want to know more about what you are suggesting though, because in a bunch of cases I'm not really sure what difference this possibility would make. For example when it comes to timing, the sort of possible incubation and symptom free periods we've heard about already make timescales rather broad when considering the who, where and whens of transmission. And if a surface is contaminated then someone contaminated it, so an infected person was there, and could also pass to others there without any need for surface involvement. Is there something weird about the Hawaii timing or other aspects of that case that makes you look in the direction of surfaces?


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

Article that 


elbows said:


> I suspect it would be a bad idea to let my Japan comment hang there with no further detail, so here is what I am on about:
> 
> machine translated from 新型ウイルス 加藤厚労相 「感染経路見えなくなってきた」 | NHKニュース



A story that covers some of the same ground but that requires no dodgy machine translation:



> Health authorities are working quickly to come up with effective measures to contain the spread after they found it hard to track down the infection routes of some cases.
> 
> Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said: "Japan seems to have entered a new phase where the infection route of several new cases is unclear."
> 
> Kato said the government will convene a panel of specialists in epidemics on Sunday to discuss ways to contain the spread.











						Japan works to contain coronavirus spread | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
					

New cases of the coronavirus in Japan have been confirmed, bringing the total to over 330, including 285 on a cruise ship offshore.




					www3.nhk.or.jp


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

It seems that they have been piloting a scheme for several weeks where the taking of samples for testing is done at peoples homes rather than having it done at a hospital. They started it at the end of January with the North West London NHS Trust, and its now expanded to University College London Hospital, St George's University Hospital, and Guys and St Thomas'.



> The home testing initiative was started by Laurence John from the infectious diseases department at Northwick Park Hospital. He told The BMJ that the need for community testing became clear after 25 London ambulances had to be taken out of service in one afternoon to be decontaminated after carrying potential cases to hospital for testing. Decontamination can take an ambulance out of service for up to eight hours.











						Coronavirus: home testing pilot launched in London to cut hospital visits and ambulance use
					

People with suspected covid-19 in London are being tested in their homes as part of a pilot that was developed by doctors to stop unnecessary ambulance use and hospital visits.  The community testing scheme started at the end of January at North West London NHS Trust and has now been implemented...




					www.bmj.com


----------



## TopCat (Feb 16, 2020)

On Sunday the Japanese health ministry confirmed that the number of infected passengers on the ship had risen by 70 to 355.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 16, 2020)

We should have brought them back straight away IMO. 









						Pressure grows to rescue Britons on liner stricken by coronavirus
					

As confirmed cases on ship rise, US plans to airlift Americans from Diamond Princess adds urgency to pleas for evacuation from UK passengers




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 16, 2020)

Some more good news...









						Relieved mum 'jumped for joy' after eight-month-old baby cleared of coronavirus
					

Stephanie Adlam said her son had showed symptoms after he was treated for a leg injury by an infected doctor at hospital last week




					www.mirror.co.uk
				




This was an odd one, as it was wildly reported that they had visited Worthing hospital on the 2nd Feb., whereas the infected doctor did his two shifts on the 4th & 5th, I guess it must have just been sloppy reporting.


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> I've taken a look at the December and January timeline before, I dont have the energy to do it again properly now. But it is reasonable to say that by some stage in December they new it was a big deal, and that the last days of December and the first weeks of January would have been a time of rapidly expanding clues as to the disease and community spread. It would be useful to know exactly what date 'before January 12th' relates to, but it does fit what we already know. The way the number of cases turning up at hospital in Wuhan was doubling quickly, the first signs of healthcare workers getting infected, these things started to be come clear no later than early January, and I dont think they were hidden from central authorities, so Beijing being on alert on or before January 12th fits.
> 
> When it comes to lag, there are certainly periods where knowledge and detection of the outbreak would lag 1-3 weeks behind. And there are certainly signs of a separate, man-made 1-3 week lag between what the authorities knew/suspected and what was publicly said in January. The extent of these lags has shifted over time, and its actually easier for me to take a fair stab at estimating how this stuff went in December and up to January 20th than since then.



Another indicator that is consistent with this:



> In another development Chinese state media published a speech from earlier this month in which Chinese President Xi Jinping said he said he had given instructions on 7 January on containing the outbreak.
> 
> At the time, local officials in the city of Wuhan were downplaying the severity of the epidemic.
> 
> ...











						Coronavirus: China announces drop in new cases for third straight day
					

Foreign minister Wang Yi said the fall showed the outbreak was being managed effectively.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Perhaps revealing this is a risky strategy, even though it was already possible to deduce a rough idea of when they knew, as per my previous waffle about this stuff.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 16, 2020)

A lot more restrictions reported on R4 news for people living in Hubei province. Everyone is to stay at home, one person is allowed out to shop for food every 3 days, housing estates can be blocked off with only one guarded entrance to permit residents in / out. And the use of private cars has been banned.

Oh and only food shops and chemists are permitted to remain open.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 16, 2020)

CNT36 said:


> Seems rash.



I see what you did there etc


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 16, 2020)

sihhi said:


> elbows
> 
> Given that the virus can remain virile for 9 days on surfaces




Virile?? 
🤔

🤨


----------



## sihhi (Feb 16, 2020)

Hospitals prepare for coronavirus epidemic to sweep Britain
					

Hospitals have been ordered to take new measures to stop the coronavirus in the UK as experts said there is a “distinct possibility” that up to 50% of Britons could be affected.Health officials plan to use 24 NHS hospitals to treat patients in the event of a surge in infections. They may also expan




					www.thetimes.co.uk
				




_Hospitals have been ordered to take new measures to stop the coronavirus in the UK as experts said there is a “distinct possibility” that up to 50% of Britons could be affected.

Health officials plan to use 24 NHS hospitals to treat patients in the event of a surge in infections. They may also expand NHS 111 services to cope with a rise in calls._

I think the NHS will very quickly be overpowered,


----------



## yield (Feb 16, 2020)

Overwhelmed


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 16, 2020)

Rather worrying.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 16, 2020)

Lupa as in not dead.

Here's an article on false negative all-clear DNA swab tests:



			https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200343
		


Horrible situation suggesting that posting a negative situation about the pneumonia can get you blocked from social media
One Wuhan family’s tale of coronavirus quarantine, followed by infection … and tragedy


----------



## maomao (Feb 16, 2020)

Coronavirus has now hit Tianjin where my inlaws live  It's been traced to a department store in Baodi district. They've been telling my wife that they've been to that department store but I think they mean in the past because it's pretty out of town and they've been staying indoors since it first hit. 

Meanwhile a colleague of mine is worried because of the Lewisham hospital case because he had a procedure (endoscopy) there nearly two weeks ago. Not sure the virus does time travel yet. That would be an unlikely mutation. 

Meanwhile my wife is worried that her cold/flu is corona virus because word on the Chinese Internet is that it only affects Chinese people. I have assured her that this is not possible but I'm not sure she trusts me.


----------



## Cid (Feb 16, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well I for one am very glad that the cases so far in the UK seem to have petered out. Here is hoping it never gets a foothold outside of China.
> 
> I saw maps recently that suggested Shenzen is as affected as Hubei now which is bad news for the Chinese containment strategy. And Shenzen iirc is where Foxconn is located where they were hoping to start iPhone etc production again shortly, albeit with a part of their normal compliment of workers. Foxconn is also trying to produce masks in some volumes, perhaps it is necessary that they get at least that part of their factory going.



Guangdong is somewhere between Spain and South Korea in terms of global economies (by gdp). Shenzhen alone is somewhere around Israel/Ireland. So... goes a bit further than iphones. And I’m guessing the shareholders aren’t discussing covering wages. Probably one for the Xi thread that though.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 16, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Virile??
> 🤔
> 
> 🤨


Viable


----------



## JimW (Feb 16, 2020)

We're on day twelve-ish of voluntary quarantine after daughter came back from grandparents. Village has a checkpoint now but you can sign in and out, or could last I heard. Still very few cases locally.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 16, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> Viable



Yes   I did understand what was meant. But don't quite see how virility has anything to do with it. 
Might as well say the virus has muliebrity.
Viruses are not gendered so can they be left as they are without people deciding they are "manly strong" 🙄


If you get me? 😊


----------



## two sheds (Feb 16, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Yes   I did understand what was meant. But don't quite see how virility has anything to do with it.
> Might as well say the virus has muliebrity.
> Viruses are not gendered so can they be left as they are without people deciding they are "manly strong" 🙄
> 
> ...



I agree 'virile for 9 days' just makes me feel inadequate.


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> Viable



Virulent.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> Virulent.


Extremely severe or harmful

By contrast viable means in this context capable of surviving,which is more apt


----------



## two sheds (Feb 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> Virulent.



That almost makes me feel worse


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 16, 2020)

.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 16, 2020)

you ruined my joke with that edit 

I was going to say that those posts have been particularly valuable and have convinced me not to leave the house. If I get visitors I'm just going to call through the letter box "I'm not coming out".


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> Extremely severe or harmful
> 
> By contrast viable means in this context capable of surviving,which is more apt



There is a lot of jargon, some of which I use too much myself, when it would be better to use more common terms.

In this case I was just having a stab at what the intended word was supposed to be. The term I came out with can be used in this context, eg 'Ability to remain virulent after environmental exposure', but other terms can convey the same meaning and be more likely to be widely understood.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 16, 2020)

I think viable is indeed right though.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 16, 2020)

I must be feeling particularly viscous today, because virulent, viable and virile all sound right to me.


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I think viable is indeed right though.



Nothing wrong with using that word in that context, but I was just suggesting which word in particular sihhi meant to use.

Anyway I am boring myself now. Will resist temptation to liven things up with some worrying new stories, even though the WHO are now pissing me off with positive spin that rather stands in contrast with China feeling the need to implement increasingly draconian measures.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 16, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I must be feeling particularly viscous today, because virulent, viable and virile all sound right to me.


I am sure I have used virulent in the context of this virus, but I don't think virile sounds right


----------



## weltweit (Feb 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> .. even though the WHO are now pissing me off with positive spin that rather stands in contrast with China feeling the need to implement increasingly draconian measures.


I am glad China is stepping up their policy of containment, it seems to me that if the population of Hubei stay at home, thus hopefully not getting infected any more than they already are, there is a chance the virus could run out of new hosts and thus come to an end.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 16, 2020)

If severe containment measures like that do prove to be effective, then you’d have to anticipate similar measures being used much earlier in other centres of outbreak. Is it even feasible over here though, where the population is, perhaps, somewhat less compliant than the typical Chinese citizen?


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am glad China is stepping up their policy of containment, it seems to me that if the population of Hubei stay at home, thus hopefully not getting infected any more than they already are, there is a chance the virus could run out of new hosts and thus come to an end.



Tricky decisions. That sort of burnout inevitably happens with a virus in communities eventually, even without human intervention. But obviously if you can reach that conclusion more quickly/with less people getting infected along the way, its worth considering. Has to be weighed up against all the downsides though, you dont want the measures to cause more problems than the disease.

The 'fate of the world' is only partially connected to what happens in Hubei now though, so the end of the virus there is not the end of the story.


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> If severe containment measures like that do prove to be effective, then you’d have to anticipate similar measures being used much earlier in other centres of outbreak. Is it even feasible over here though, where the population is, perhaps, somewhat less compliant than the typical Chinese citizen?



Its hard to predict quite how far attempts here would go, and my fallback position in most matters is 'never say never'.

There are already some hints of what might be attempted here, I will try to cover some of them later today. Some of these could go ahead even if there is no prospect of full containment, because if they can affect the pace and proportion of the public infected in the first wave, they can alter the burden on healthcare etc.


----------



## Cid (Feb 16, 2020)

China has also had security in metro stations etc in place for a while now. With bag scanning etc... so I imagine, initially at least, part of the containment strategy was just adding to that. Obviously not the case in the uk, where actual people are cut out wherever possible (this is also the case in China to some extent of course, just perhaps not in police and security).


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

I'll start with stuff that certainly isnt on the UK agenda at the moment.



> In the face of confusion over what the correct response should be, Public Health England and the Department for Education are to issue headteachers and childcare providers with fresh guidance on Monday .
> 
> Some schools in Brighton and Hove have told parents they can choose to keep their children off school as “authorised absences”, after five people from the area were diagnosed with the virus, also known as Covid-19.
> 
> But a department spokeswoman said: “We are aware that some schools have said that parents can keep their children at home – this is not the advice. For those who are in contact with a suspected case in a childcare or educational setting, no restrictions or special control measures are required while laboratory test results for Covid-19 are awaited.











						Coronavirus: UK headteachers told to stay calm and keep schools open
					

Public health advisers will send out new virus guidelines this week




					www.theguardian.com
				




Pedantry activated: And no, the virus is not also known as Covid-19, thats the name of the disease, not the virus.


----------



## Cid (Feb 16, 2020)

I think there’s also a feeling in China that this has to end soon. Not in any rational sense of containment... just in terms of faith in government, new normals and psychology of having done ones bit by staying indoors for so long.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 16, 2020)

Cid said:


> I think there’s also a feeling in China that this has to end soon. Not in any rational sense of containment... just in terms of faith in government, new normals and psychology of having done ones bit by staying indoors for so long.


They are going to be rather shook if it spreads in leaps and bounds.


----------



## Cid (Feb 16, 2020)

TopCat said:


> They are going to be rather shook if it spreads in leaps and bounds.



Yep.

I mean I’ve generalised that massively from what people are saying on my wechat, and a few wider impressions. But I think it’s pretty reflective of how people function in general. Combined with practical necessities of getting back to work etc.


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

Cid said:


> I think there’s also a feeling in China that this has to end soon. Not in any rational sense of containment... just in terms of faith in government, new normals and psychology of having done ones bit by staying indoors for so long.



There is a WHO graph to help with that, which would make me a bit more optimistic if it told something approaching the full story, but sadly it does not. WHO decided to stick with lab-confirmed cases on their dashboard, so cases that have been counted due to the new approach to diagnosing cases in China are not included at all.


(from Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS )


----------



## Cid (Feb 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> There is a WHO graph to help with that, which would make me a bit more optimistic if it told something approaching the full story, but sadly it does not. WHO decided to stick with lab-confirmed cases on their dashboard, so cases that have been counted due to the new approach to diagnosing cases in China are not included at all.
> 
> View attachment 198749
> (from Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS )



Ah. I am going to guess that Chinese media have been running with that massively. Not hugely impressed with WHO on this.


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

Cid said:


> Ah. I am going to guess that Chinese media have been running with that massively. Not hugely impressed with WHO on this.



Its difficult for them. Sometimes aspects of their messages annoy me, but they are attempting multiple balancing acts and they are not simply attempting to put a positive spin on everything. 

Its useful that they stuck with the old methodology for the numbers on the graphs, so we can observe one or two things with some consistency over time. But they still need to come up with a decent way of incorporating the new numbers and clinical definition of cases soon.

Some of the things they say that annoy me, annoy me less when I properly consider the nature of the 'infodemic' they are trying to counter. There is a load of awful hysterical rubbish out there that I have barely touched on, that does need countering. Unfortunately the nature and priorities of entities like WHO also mean their ideal world would feature a monopoly on public information for them and their national equivalents. I therefore tend to assume that any battle against the 'infodemic' by the likes of the WHO will contain aspects I support, and aspects I view with suspicion. Especially since I remember things like their attitude to the Haiti cholera outbreak, when they and the UN were full of denial in regards the possibility that a camp for UN peacekeepers next to the river was the likely source of the outbreak. 2010s Haiti cholera outbreak - Wikipedia


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 16, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Rather worrying.



Why is it worrying?  

Those 105 quarantined are from the second rescue flight from Wuhan, almost 100 from the first flight were quarantined & have now been discharged after serving their 14 days, most likely these other 105 will be too.

Out of the 9 cases confirmed, 8 have recovered & been discharged.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 16, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Hospitals prepare for coronavirus epidemic to sweep Britain
> 
> 
> Hospitals have been ordered to take new measures to stop the coronavirus in the UK as experts said there is a “distinct possibility” that up to 50% of Britons could be affected.Health officials plan to use 24 NHS hospitals to treat patients in the event of a surge in infections. They may also expan
> ...



Fucking hell, you're a right doom and gloom merchant, it's as if you are hoping the world is coming to an end.

For those unaware, this poster is the one that posted nonsense on the main thread, about whole villages in China being wiped-out & dead bodies being burnt in massive bonfires!


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 16, 2020)

For the more sane posters, I've been at a family gathering today, which included my SiS, who is a senior member of staff at Worthing Hospital.

There's been no concerns by the medical staff over Covid-19, but they are pissed-off over the media circus that descended on the hospital this week, which together with fuckwits on social media, have spread fear amongst the community, resulting in them wasting valuable time & resources on dealing with cancelled appointments, and trying to reassure patients that the hospital is safe.

It was one GP that did 2 shifts in A&E on the 4th & 5th Feb., A&E was closed for a couple of hours for a deep clean, the GP has been given the all clear & discharged from the isolation hospital in London, and he appears not to have infected anyone else.


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> For the more sane posters



If you intend to police the range of concerns expressed towards this outbreak by questioning some posters sanity, then you and I are probably destined for quite the bunfight.


----------



## Combustible (Feb 16, 2020)

Cid said:


> China has also had security in metro stations etc in place for a while now. With bag scanning etc... so I imagine, initially at least, part of the containment strategy was just adding to that. Obviously not the case in the uk, where actual people are cut out wherever possible (this is also the case in China to some extent of course, just perhaps not in police and security).



Also there's the fact that the vast majority of people in cities live in housing communities (xiaoqu's). It  not only makes it easier to stop/record everyone coming in and out, but also there are building managements who can collate information on everyone and where they've been, and I guess they have played a large part in contact tracing. Villages have village leaderships who can do the same thing. I flew back into China last Wednesday and the local police station called me when I was travelling back from the airport asking where I had been etc. The number of new cases in Zhejiang have dropped significantly in the last few days, there were 5 new cases today (3 in one city Wenzhou). I don't necessarily think these numbers are massively faked, because so many people have essentially sat at home for nearly 3 weeks. The problem is what happens when work starts again proper. I get the impression the media is trying to play down a bit the prospect of immediate normality, I think the current line is that it will likely  be later in the spring time.


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

Combustible said:


> The number of new cases in Zhejiang have dropped significantly in the last few days, there were 5 new cases today (3 in one city Wenzhou). I don't necessarily think these numbers are massively faked, because so many people have essentially sat at home for nearly 3 weeks. The problem is what happens when work starts again proper. I get the impression the media is trying to play down a bit the prospect of immediate normality, I think the current line is that it will likely  be later in the spring time.



Yes, I am under the impression that we are now within the window of time where signs of the containment measures achieving something should start to show up in the numbers, if they have made a big difference.

I havent used the word fake when discussing official data because there are all sorts of reasons why the numbers would not be expected to show a full picture, but rather only the tip of the iceberg.

Its not very easy to attribute causes to any trends seen in the numbers. I am still allowing myself a small amount of optimism in relation to some numbers coming out of China (though not all of them), but it often ends up feeling like I need a few more weeks before even having a tentative stab at describing the situation as improved, and now seems to be no exception. Often a week then passes and I still feel like I need a few more weeks.

Thanks for the info about your own situation, it is very useful to hear about this stuff.


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

Dont get me wrong, I am glad you are posting the various bits of good news, especially since that stuff will often be overlooked at a time like this.

Nor do I think there is anything wrong with frequently expressing frustration with the various things you consider to be excessively negative.

But one of the strengths of these sorts of discussions on forums is that we can accommodate quite the range of info, opinions, levels of optimism or gloom, etc. That can be how balance is achieved here, we dont need everyone to keep a level head at all times and get their own balance spot on, we dont have to ignore various stories about government preparation that appear in the press. Collectively a picture with some balance should form, even if some of us take some themes to one extreme or another at times.


----------



## JimW (Feb 16, 2020)

Pleased to read that Beijing's youngest confirmed case, a nine month old girl, came out of hospital recovered today: 北京9月龄确诊新冠肺炎患者今天治愈出院 ETA her mum and elder sister better too.


----------



## spring-peeper (Feb 16, 2020)

Canada is bringing home the boat people.
They will be quarantined at the Nav-Center near Cornwall.

I've stayed there a number of times.  The building is set quite far back from the road that leads to Cornwall.

Fb person pasted the below link.





__





						Canadian Coronavirus Patients from Diamond Princess Cruise Ship to be Moved to Cornwall Ontario a Really Bad Idea 021620 – The Cornwall Free News
					






					cornwallfreenews.com
				




Not sure what the fuss is.  Do they think that the quarantined will walk the several kilometers just to infect the town's residents?  Does he think the people from Cornwall will try to sneak up on the complex?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> If you intend to police the range of concerns expressed towards this outbreak by questioning some posters sanity, then you and I are probably destined for quite the bunfight.



I am objecting to comments like 'I think the NHS will very quickly be overpowered', from a poster that hasn't a fucking clue & has posted bollocks about bonfires of bodies in China, when I am talking to front-line NHS workers that have no concerns. And, posting that graph with the 'rather worrying' comment, when it isn't.

I am not objecting to anything you are posting, which is at least reasoned & considered, unlike those two plonkers above.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 16, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Why is it worrying?
> 
> Those 105 quarantined are from the second rescue flight from Wuhan, almost 100 from the first flight were quarantined & have now been discharged after serving their 14 days, most likely these other 105 will be too.
> 
> Out of the 9 cases confirmed, 8 have recovered & been discharged.



Oh, didn’t know that, good to hear so many have recovered.


----------



## maomao (Feb 16, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> I am objecting to comments like 'I think the NHS will very quickly be overpowered', from a poster that hasn't a fucking clue & has posted bollocks about bonfires of bodies in China, when I am talking to front-line NHS workers that have no concerns. And, posting that graph with the 'rather worrying' comment, when it isn't.
> 
> I am not objecting to anything you are posting, which is at least reasoned & considered, unlike those two plonkers above.


sihhi speaks and reads Chinese and has reproduced and translated what is all over the Chinese Internet at the moment. I don't remember him saying that piles of bodies had definitely been burned I just remember him sharing some posts from Chinese social media that certainly got over the general mood in the country right now. 

Without going too far into the naivety of your unconditional trust in UK authorities to tell the truth about everything those of us who have connections to China know that the Chinese state almost certainly is lying and that the truth is somewhere between the official line and the wildest rumours. I heard about SARS on the Chinese rumour mill a week or two before it ever hit the press in any country (just vague things about a deadly disease down South but turned out to be true). 

And for those of us with friends and family in the middle of an epidemic it genuinely is a bit scary.


----------



## Cid (Feb 16, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> Canada is bringing home the boat people.
> They will be quarantined at the Nav-Center near Cornwall.
> 
> I've stayed there a number of times.  The building is set quite far back from the road that leads to Cornwall.
> ...



He's probably been driven insane by that godawful website design.


----------



## Limejuice (Feb 16, 2020)

maomao said:


> And for those of us with friends and family in the middle of an epidemic it genuinely is a bit scary.


And how!

My daughter's in Vietnam. The official figures show 16 cases with 6 recovered. But the word on the street is that there are dozens or hundreds more cases. 

The rumour spreaders point to entire towns in quarantine. But this is normal for Vietnam, which is uncompromising in its action to stamp on epidemics. 

(During the SARS thing, one man felt ill and was taken to a particular hospital in Hanoi. The medics did the right thing by notifying the authorities they had a suspected case of a reportable disease. Within 1.23 minutes, police arrived and padlocked the doors shut, posted armed cops around the building, and told everyone - staff, patients, visitors, etc - they were under a compulsory quarantine for 14 days. Anyone trying to escape would be shot. They'd try to remember to send food in and good luck!)

Consequently, my daughter's native mistrust of official numbers and propaganda (and despite the shiniest gloss on the situation from the government, Vietnam's tourist industry collapsed in a week) is balanced by her personal contacts feeding (supposedly) on-the-street, terrifying "facts" about the real scale of infection.

To her personal knowledge, the schools she teaches in near Hanoi have been closed for 2 weeks, and won't reopen until mid-March. A town of 40,000 north-west of Hanoi with 6 suspected cases has been closed entirely by the military - it's close to the China border, and a lot of people have been ignoring the government health protocols. 

With no money coming in, my daughter's luckily in a position to bail out and travel to Australia (or even home to Blighty!) thanks to the Bank of Mummy or the kindness of Mastercard. But her employers are desperate to keep her since nearly all their other teachers have gone away, often without notice. She genuinely feels loyal to her schools and told us today she was missing her primary school kids like crazy. So she doesn't want to leave permanently. She just feels that if nothing's happening with work for a month, she might as well become a tourist again.

My point is this: for people caught up in this Typhoid Mary hell, it's a complex situation, with conflicting information, domestic and financial pressures, with overwhelming confusion.

For their families, it is worse.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 16, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I must be feeling particularly viscous today, because virulent, viable and virile all sound right to me.



not vicious?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 16, 2020)

Of course it must be worrying for people with family in China & other Asian countries, but perhaps posters haven't noticed the thread title 'British response'?

I've no idea why this thread wasn't merged with the main one from the start, as others were, but it should be now.


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> There are already some hints of what might be attempted here, I will try to cover some of them later today.



Looks like I wont cover this UK angle yet, too much of it is behind paywalls or lacking in the sort of detail I'd want before commenting.

Instead, a detail about the case detected in Egypt:



> The confirmed case in Egypt is asymptomatic and was identified through contact screening of an Index case who travelled to Cairo between 21 January and 4 February on a business trip and tested positive for COVID-19 on 11 February in China.



From WHO EMRO | Update on COVID-19 in the Eastern Mediterranean Region | News | Media centre

As for the stuff from Japan I started talking about yesterday, today saw the next step in changing the message to the public there, in light of the 'new phase' they started talking about:



> "We want to ask the public to avoid non-urgent, non-essential gatherings. We want elderly and those with pre-existing conditions to avoid crowded places," Kato said after a meeting of a panel of experts.
> 
> "I think it's important that we exercise Japan's collective strength. We wish to ask the Japanese people for their cooperation and it will take everyone being united to tackle this infectious disease," he told a press conference.
> 
> ...











						Japan Health Minister Urges Public to Avoid Non-essential Gatherings, Stay away from Crowds & Trains
					

Katsunobu Kato warned the nation was "entering a new phase" in the outbreak of the virus, which has infected nearly 60 people in Japan so far.




					www.news18.com


----------



## Limejuice (Feb 16, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> posters haven't noticed the thread title 'British response'?


I'm in Britain: I posted my response.


----------



## DexterTCN (Feb 16, 2020)

The Americans have taken their citizens off the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship 'under quarantine'..


----------



## elbows (Feb 16, 2020)

DexterTCN said:


> The Americans have taken their citizens off the Diamond Princess, the cruise ship 'under quarantine'..



Some of them turned down the offer, because they didnt want another 14 days quarantine in the USA, or had other reasons. And it sounds like 40 tested positive so will be going to hospital in Japan.









						Coronavirus: Japan cruise ship's US passengers home for further quarantine
					

Hundreds of US citizens who were on the coronavirus-hit Diamond Princess face further quarantine.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## DexterTCN (Feb 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> Some of them turned down the offer, because they didnt want another 14 days quarantine in the USA, or had other reasons. And it sounds like 40 tested positive so will be going to hospital in Japan.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I don't think there have been any Americans so far.   They'd (the US) probably want to get their hands on a couple.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 16, 2020)

Yes that came to mind (not you specifically) when I read the post.


----------



## spring-peeper (Feb 16, 2020)

Local vets are taking to facebook to assure pet owners that their dogs will not give them the virus.
They don't think it is a good idea to put masks on them while they are being walked.

I don't remember all this fuss with SARS.

My daughter was supposed to go on a field trip to Toronto during the SARS outbreak.
The school board canceled the trip.
Us parents kicked up a fuss and the school board let them go.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 17, 2020)

Limejuice said:


> I'm in Britain: I posted my response.



It was supposed to be about the British response to it arriving in the UK, hence it being in the UK news forum, which TBH was already being discussed on the main thread, now the conversations have basically merged, with similiar information appearing on both threads.


----------



## maomao (Feb 17, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Of course it must be worrying for people with family in China & other Asian countries, but perhaps posters haven't noticed the thread title 'British response'?


It was about the British response until you started throwing abuse at the OP for posts they'd made on the other thread


----------



## Graymalkin (Feb 17, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> Do they think that the quarantined will walk the several kilometers just to infect the town's residents?



There aren't many reasons to go to Cornwall in any circumstance.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 17, 2020)

Japanese officials have confirmed a further 99 people have been infected by the new coronavirus aboard the quarantined cruise ship Diamond Princess, bringing the total to 454, the health ministry said on Monday.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 17, 2020)

Hell cruise.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 17, 2020)

Limejuice said:


> I'm in Britain: I posted my response.



How is this not a British response cupid_stunt ?

Keep British responses to British diseases


----------



## TopCat (Feb 17, 2020)

All ramping up isn't it?


----------



## weltweit (Feb 17, 2020)

Actually TopCat, I'm feeling a little better about it than I have done for a while. The small number of cases in the UK seemed to have petered out and it doesn't seem to have taken hold in other countries yet.

I am worried about Thailand Singapore India South Korea Hong Kong and Japan etc. I don't know how rigorous they are being in tracking down and isolating the cases that they have.

As to China I think they are doing everything that could be expected or hoped of them. At the moment the virus still seems to be spreading but the core area of Hubei is apparently locked down and the restrictions put upon the population just might slow it down.

What happens in the rest of China when people start returning to work is another question. As I understand it Foxconn plan a return to work this week and I know other companies hope to start some kind of production this week.  It could be that a widespread return to work might trigger new infections outside of Hubei which would obviously be bad.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 17, 2020)

Must be awful being on that ship. Especially if british knowing they dont give a fuck or worse one of the poor crew.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 17, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Must be awful being on that ship. Especially if british knowing they dont give a fuck or worse one of the poor crew.


Yes good point .. hardly a dream cruise any more for the punters and as you say, hell for the crew.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 17, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Japanese officials have confirmed a further 99 people have been infected by the new coronavirus aboard the quarantined cruise ship Diamond Princess, bringing the total to 454, the health ministry said on Monday.



Cant understand why anyone thought it was a good idea to leave people on that ship. It's a nightmare scenario.


----------



## strung out (Feb 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am worried about Thailand Singapore India South Korea Hong Kong and Japan etc. I don't know how rigorous they are being in tracking down and isolating the cases that they have.


What makes you say that?


----------



## weltweit (Feb 17, 2020)

strung out said:


> What makes you say that?


Well in the first instance our so called super spreader apparently caught the virus in Singapore, where according to the news they have only had a handful of cases. Just how unlucky was he that in his brief visit he managed to have close contact with one of this handful? It does not seem likely to me. More likely is that they have quite a lot of cases but are not admitting it for some reason.


----------



## elbows (Feb 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am worried about Thailand Singapore India South Korea Hong Kong and Japan etc. I don't know how rigorous they are being in tracking down and isolating the cases that they have.



Thats the thing about there seemingly being many mild cases, it further reduces the chances of discovering them all.

Take for example Singapore. a police state with decent healthcare. Their ability to do contact tracing is very advanced, but they are still going to miss cases. Obviously I cannot show you examples of missed cases, because nobody knows about them. But I can hopefully still demonstrate something via info about some cases there that were spotted late, and not picked up by healthcare system during initial multiple attempts by the person to get treatment:

Cse 48:



> He reported onset of symptoms on 1 February, and had sought treatment at four general practitioner (GP) clinics on 2 February, 4 February, 7 February, 9 February and 10 February. He went to NCID on 10 February, and was subsequently confirmed to have COVID-19 infection on 11 February afternoon.



Case 64:



> He reported onset of symptoms on 3 February and had sought treatment at two GP clinics on 5 February, 7 February, 10 February and 13 February. He was referred to the emergency department at NUH on 13 February. Subsequent test results confirmed COVID-19 infection on 14 February morning.
> 11. He is a taxi driver and prior to hospital admission, he had been working.



Case 66:



> He reported onset of symptoms on 29 January and had sought treatment at a GP clinic on 2 February, 5 February and 12 February. He was referred to NCID on 12 February. Subsequent test results confirmed COVID-19 infection on 14 February morning.



Anyway there are other examples but I deliberately picked some of the worst ones (ones with longest date ranges between seeking treatment and getting diagnosed, most number of visits to different healthcare facilities during that time, etc). Many others were tested and found to be infected much more quickly than the ones I've listed. Point is, these particular cases were eventually spotted, but the criteria for who you suspect could have Covid-19 limits the ability to detect every case. ie No travel to certain regions or known contacts at the time, means they arent even looking for coronavirus in that patient. Presumably it was only a combination of persistence by the ill person, or a cluster/other cases being detected in the meantime that the new ill person can be linked to, that lead to eventual identification of these cases. For those in whom illness remains mild, there is unlikely to be the same level of persistence in seeking medical help, although some of them could still be picked up via contact tracing eventually. And its the same story in most other countries (though this will change eventually, as countries broaden the criteria in response to general community spread).

I got the info about cases from various daily updates from MOH | Updates on COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) Local Situation


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well in the first instance our so called super spreader apparently caught the virus in Singapore, where according to the news they have only had a handful of cases. Just how unlucky was he that in his brief visit he managed to have close contact with one of this handful? It does not seem likely to me. More likely is that they have quite a lot of cases but are not admitting it for some reason.



He caught it at a business conference, some of the attendees were from China.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 17, 2020)

The Westerdam cruise ship sounds like it could be a worry - after it was turned away by several other countries, Cambodia allowed the more than 1,000 passengers to disembark after determining that none of them were sick. The passengers dispersed, most of them flying back to their home countries, and then one of them tested positive for the virus. Officials are now talking about trying to track down everyone who got off the ship and put them in quarantine for 14 days.


----------



## elbows (Feb 17, 2020)

The following article is already getting a little old now, but still provides a useful look at a bunch of the clusters they have found in Singapore:









						COVID-19: What we know about the 7 clusters in Singapore
					

SINGAPORE — Seven clusters of the coronavirus have been identified.




					sg.news.yahoo.com
				




Japan meanwhile provides another example of problems detecting outbreaks in a timely fashion. A lot of the cases now testing positive in Tokyo are being linked to a party on a boat that took place almost one month ago. Will try to post relevant stories about this later.


----------



## elbows (Feb 17, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> The Westerdam cruise ship sounds like it could be a worry - after it was turned away by several other countries, Cambodia allowed the more than 1,000 passengers to disembark after determining that none of them were sick. The passengers dispersed, most of them flying back to their home countries, and then one of them tested positive for the virus. Officials are now talking about trying to track down everyone who got off the ship and put them in quarantine for 14 days.



And Cambodias PM, who has been in power since 1985, was shaking their hands for propaganda purposes when they got off the boat.


----------



## elbows (Feb 17, 2020)

Yet more signs of lots of asymptomatic cases. Bad news for containment, likely very good news for overall mortality rate.



> The US state department announced later that 14 of the 340 American evacuees were confirmed to have the virus in tests given before they boarded the planes. They were taken to the US because they did not have symptoms and were being isolated from other passengers on the planes, it said. It was not immediately clear whether the 14 were among the 99 new cases.





> “Many people are testing positive on the ship, but that is because we are testing everyone onboard, regardless of their medical condition,” said Shigeru Omi, the chief director of the JapanCommunity Health Care Organisation. “And 70% of those testing positive are not showing any symptoms at all.”



2h ago 10:42


----------



## elbows (Feb 17, 2020)

An early contender for understatement of the year:



> “We are not entirely convinced that the quarantine procedures on that ship were 100% effective,” said Prof Dianne Stephens, deputy chief health officer for the Northern Territory (NT).


 7h ago 06:24


----------



## elbows (Feb 17, 2020)

Indonesia remains a concern.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Feb 17, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Cant understand why anyone thought it was a good idea to leave people on that ship. It's a nightmare scenario.



its standard procedure with ships- run up the yellow flag and wait it out. this shi[p was at least allowed to dock for utilities etc - non passenger vessels usually hole up and drop anchor  offshore. the crew of passenger vessels are still subject to a further 2 weeks quarantine after the last the the paying passengers have left the biulding


----------



## elbows (Feb 17, 2020)

I'm not 100% sure, but it sounds like the first big change as a result of Japan recognising a new phase has happened - gone are the requirements to have travelled to certain places or had contact with known cases before Covid-19 is suspected:



> Tokyo, Feb. 17 (Jiji Press)--Japan's health ministry on Monday advised people to consult dedicated coronavirus-related offices at public health centers or other relevant facilities if they run a fever of 37.5 degrees Celsius or over for at least four days.
> 
> Also asked to do so were people feeling lethargic or breathing difficulties severer than such conditions for influenza.
> 
> The recommendation was included in a set of guidelines announced the same day as rough indications for when a person should reach out to the consultation offices if they develop fever or other symptoms. The guidelines were compiled in response to a rapid increase in the number of people in the country contracting the new coronavirus originating in China, for whom infection routes are unknown.











						People with Fever for 4 Days Asked to Seek Advice on Coronavirus
					

Tokyo, Feb. 17 (Jiji Press)--Japan's health ministry on Monday advised people to consult dedicated coronavirus…




					www.nippon.com


----------



## not-bono-ever (Feb 17, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> The Westerdam cruise ship sounds like it could be a worry - after it was turned away by several other countries, Cambodia allowed the more than 1,000 passengers to disembark after determining that none of them were sick. The passengers dispersed, most of them flying back to their home countries, and then one of them tested positive for the virus. Officials are now talking about trying to track down everyone who got off the ship and put them in quarantine for 14 days.




i think i mentioned cambodia earlier on in the thread- they were purposefully not talking about the corona issue as a threat becuase of the sheer weight of chinese nationals that use cambodia for sex tourism R&R, gambling and low level money laundering. backpackers might provide a living for a few bars and flophouses but the chinese are the financial muscle thats keeps the hun sen dynasty bank accounts filled


----------



## elbows (Feb 17, 2020)

Another story on the Japan change.









						Japan issues coronavirus medical guidance as infections rise
					

Japan's health ministry issues guidance for when people with symptoms consistent with the new coronavirus should consult medical institutions, as the country steps up efforts to contain the outbreak.




					english.kyodonews.net
				






> Japan's health ministry issued guidance Monday for when people with symptoms consistent with the new coronavirus should consult medical institutions, as the country steps up efforts to contain its spread with more cases, even among medical staff, confirmed.
> 
> The ministry is now encouraging people who have had a temperature of 37.5 C or higher for four days, are feeling lethargic or are experiencing shortness of breath to contact by phone nationwide health-care centers in charge of responding to the outbreak.





> The centers will then recommend medical institutions they should visit. The period is shorter at two days for the elderly and those with underlying conditions such as diabetes, as they are viewed as more vulnerable to the pneumonia-causing virus, the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare said.
> 
> The guidance is intended to give those worried about contracting the virus an idea of when and where to go to a doctor while a government panel of experts has said the country is at an early stage of infection.





> Raising public concerns, the number of cases despite no recent record of coming into contact with people from virus-stricken regions in China or without symptoms has been increasing.





> The social repercussions of the virus became more visible on Monday, with a birthday event this weekend at the Imperial Palace for Emperor Naruhito, who took the throne in May, canceled.
> 
> Tokyo Marathon organizers said the annual race in March will be scaled down.





> In unveiling the medical guidance, health minister Katsunobu Kato said at a press conference that people with colds or influenza tend to see their health recover after three to four days on average while those infected with the virus do not.
> 
> Kato also asked individuals who have developed cold-like symptoms to keep track of their temperature and refrain from going to work or school.


----------



## elbows (Feb 17, 2020)

TopCat said:


> All ramping up isn't it?



It certainly has not strayed far from the way that a 'default assumption, containment wont work, it will be a pandemic' reality would look. I might be reliant on countries that widen their criteria for suspecting (and therefore testing) cases in order to spot the wider community transmission outside China that would be required for me to consider this a pandemic. Thats a big part of the reason why I've gone on about Japan so much recently, though there are plenty of other places that might end up fulfilling that role first.

Although given the awkward stage we are still in, its a good idea to balance that sort of 'it looks like a pandemic' thinking with an example that had some worrying features and spread, but that did not lead to a pandemic. SARS in 2003 provides such an example, especially given that Canada ended up with around 250 cases and 43 deaths, and 29 countries/territories had cases.


----------



## elbows (Feb 17, 2020)

OK just this one last Japan story from me for now, because it contains some useful info about the 'Jan 18th party boat' cluster in Tokyo.

And it also provides some context for why the changes I have discussed in recent posts have happened now:



> The Tokyo Metropolitan Government says the virus may be spreading in the capital, as people not at the party -- including an office worker and a chauffeur -- were also confirmed infected, and is calling for measures to prevent transmission.











						11 infected on Tokyo tour boat, likely transmitted coronavirus to non-passengers - The Mainichi
					

TOKYO -- A sudden spike in new coronavirus cases was confirmed among attendees at a New Year's party for independent taxi drivers held on a traditiona




					mainichi.jp


----------



## clicker (Feb 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Actually TopCat, I'm feeling a little better about it than I have done for a while. The small number of cases in the UK seemed to have petered out and it doesn't seem to have taken hold in other countries yet.
> 
> I am worried about Thailand Singapore India South Korea Hong Kong and Japan etc. I don't know how rigorous they are being in tracking down and isolating the cases that they have.


My young second cousin has been teaching English in South Korea for 2 years and currently sorting out a flight back to UK ( on the advice of the agency that found her the post. )


----------



## elbows (Feb 17, 2020)

elbows said:


> That may be in part because we arent looking for any cases that dont have such links, so we wont find any. That will only change by accident, ie stumbling into such a case, or because they change the criteria for suspecting Corvid-19.



It looks like I missed a comment from Neil Ferguson last week, which if accurate, means the UK did start an additional form of surveillance:



> Earlier, Professor Neil Ferguson, from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College, London, told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme the world was “in the early phases of a global pandemic at the moment” and the true number of UK cases is higher than eight.
> 
> He said: “The fact we have only recorded eight cases in the UK is because our surveillance is focused on travellers.
> 
> “We think probably we are picking up maybe one in three cases coming into the country at the current time.





> “We will know more in the next few weeks.
> 
> *“Surveillance has started across the UK in hospitals of pneumonia cases. That will give us a proper picture*.”



Article is from the 12th Coronavirus: Scout leader at centre of UK cases ‘happy to be home’ and is mostly concerned with other coronavirus news from that day.

It is possible someone already mentioned the bit I put in bold on this thread, maybe even me, as I am not immune from information overload myself. But since signs of changing phases and surveillance is a recurring theme of mine in this thread, and I have mostly painted a picture where the UK was only looking for cases related to travel and contact of known cases, I feel the need to point out this quote which suggests I was out of date. Now I just need to find some confirmation of it from another source.


----------



## Supine (Feb 17, 2020)

India considering an export ban on 12 medicines:









						Coronavirus outbreak: Government mulls export ban on 12 essential drugs - Times of India
					

The eight-member expert committee constituted by the government to assess availability of medicines in the country has suggested imposing export restrictions on 12 drugs including antibiotics like chloramphenicol, neomycin, metronidazole, azythromicin, clindamycin; vitamin B1, B2 and B6; as well...




					m-timesofindia-com.cdn.ampproject.org


----------



## 2hats (Feb 17, 2020)

WHO reports Covid-19 causes only mild disease in four out of five people who get it.









						Coronavirus causes mild disease in four in five patients, says WHO
					

Covid-19 not as deadly as Sars, figures show, and children not affected in same way as adults




					www.theguardian.com
				






> “It appears that Covid-19 is not as deadly as other coronaviruses, including Sars and Mers,” said the WHO director general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, adding that officials were “starting to get a clearer picture of the outbreak”.
> 
> “More than 80% of patients have mild disease and will recover, 14% have severe disease including pneumonia and shortness of breath, 5% have critical disease including respiratory failure, septic shock and multi-organ failure, and 2% of cases are fatal,” Tedros said in Geneva. “The risk of death increases the older you are.”
> 
> He said children were not suffering from Covid-19 in the same way as adults, and more research was needed to find out why. There were still gaps in understanding that he hoped the WHO’s team of international experts would be able to work towards filling.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 17, 2020)

This is a report from the confirmed cases up to the 11th Feb. One thing of note is the mortality rate for those with identified additional conditions.



			http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/fileCCDCW/journal/article/ccdcw/newcreate/COVID-19.pdf


----------



## Cid (Feb 17, 2020)

clicker said:


> My young second cousin has been teaching English in South Korea for 2 years and currently sorting out a flight back to UK ( on the advice of the agency that found her the post. )



Seems something of an overreaction... Or at least if it does start spreading uncontrolled in SK, I suspect the horse has already bolted worldwide. My contacts in Korea don't seem particularly more worried than we are here. Though also teaching is probably one of the worst professions to be in with regards to getting the latest illness. So there is that.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 17, 2020)

Cid said:


> Seems something of an overreaction... Or at least if it does start spreading uncontrolled in SK, I suspect the horse has already bolted worldwide. My contacts in Korea don't seem particularly more worried than we are here. Though also teaching is probably one of the worst professions to be in with regards to getting the latest illness. So there is that.



If I had a solid support network and had confidence in SK health care system I probably would still come back TBH. I’d want to be around to help people that need it.


----------



## sim667 (Feb 17, 2020)

Partners sister lives in Hong Kong and there’s a massive shortage of bog roll and babywipes there because of corona virus. (Because of rumours and everyone panic buying, not because there’s an actual shortage)


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Feb 17, 2020)

I have merged the UK pol threads on this as there was a lot of duplication (and also a request).


----------



## Artaxerxes (Feb 17, 2020)

Fuck off great "wash you hands be aware of Coronavirus" on the mirrors at works bogs today


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 17, 2020)

Artaxerxes said:


> Fuck off great "wash you hands be aware of Coronavirus" on the mirrors at works bogs today



Sensible. Any spread needs to be slowed down along with everyday illness that good hygiene cam mitigate.


----------



## elbows (Feb 18, 2020)

elbows said:


> There is a WHO graph to help with that, which would make me a bit more optimistic if it told something approaching the full story, but sadly it does not. WHO decided to stick with lab-confirmed cases on their dashboard, so cases that have been counted due to the new approach to diagnosing cases in China are not included at all.
> 
> View attachment 198749
> (from Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS )



The WHO have now switched to using the numbers from China that include cases that havent tested positive but were diagnosed clinically in Hubei province.

So it now has the spike in it like everyone elses.


----------



## iona (Feb 18, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Yes, and so do the dental nurses, so it could be 2 or 3 masks per patient.





maomao said:


> That just seems like a massive waste to me. Are they disposed of or sent back for re sterilising?


I've never known anyone change masks between every patient and it definitely isn't the norm (other than implants/oral surgery when you're using sterile ppe that comes in individual packs). Don't think I was even taught it as something you're supposed to do even though most people don't.
They're just made out of thin papery stuff, shipping them off to somehow be sterilised probably isn't much less wasteful than just binning a couple masks each per day tbh.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 18, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> The current mortality rate is above 2%. The table below is from the CDC to help judge the severity of a pandemic. The most severe level only requires 2%. Yes, many experts are predicting this figure will drop. All we can do now is work with the figures we have. Over the coming weeks we will have a better idea of the nature of covid-19.
> View attachment 198548




Coronavirus has the same rate of mortality as the Spanish flu? 50 million died from that.

That is worrying.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 18, 2020)

Reading about the Spanish Flu in Ireland ..1919.




__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com
				




Many local boards of health recommended that schools be closed. But headteachers were slow to comply since the disease was described as “virulent but not dangerous”.

800000 caught the Spanish flu in Ireland. 23000 died.

My grandmother's parents both died from Spanish flu. They were young...early 30s.
Their children were split up and sent to different relatives all over Ireland. 2 ended up in Co. Clare which had the lowest incidence of deaths from flu.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 18, 2020)

iona said:


> I've never known anyone change masks between every patient and it definitely isn't the norm (other than implants/oral surgery when you're using sterile ppe that comes in individual packs). Don't think I was even taught it as something you're supposed to do even though most people don't.
> They're just made out of thin papery stuff, shipping them off to somehow be sterilised probably isn't much less wasteful than just binning a couple masks each per day tbh.



Well that's odd, because my dentist & dental nurse always bin both gloves & masks after they have finished with me or my mother. Plus a British Dental Association spokesperson on the news explained they are single use, and must be changed between patients, which fits in with their press release about many practices will struggle with the rationing of just 2 boxes (i.e. 100 masks) per day. 

There's also this report of a dentist being kicked-off the register for various failings, including not changing masks between patients. 



> *Other cross-infection control failings included not routinely change his gloves and mask between patients* and failing to ensure dental instruments and equipment were adequately cleaned.


----------



## iona (Feb 18, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Well that's odd, because my dentist & dental nurse always bin both gloves & masks after they have finished with me or my mother. Plus a British Dental Association spokesperson on the news explained they are single use, and must be changed between patients, which fits in with their press release about many practices will struggle with the rationing of just 2 boxes (i.e. 100 masks) per day.
> 
> There's also this report of a dentist being kicked-off the register for various failings, including not changing masks between patients.


Yeah I'm sure some people do, it's not a standard universal thing like changing gloves between patients though ime.


----------



## Virtual Blue (Feb 18, 2020)

phew...my parents escaped HK and now in the UK.

The struggle for bog roll was getting intense over there.


----------



## elbows (Feb 18, 2020)

South Korea seems to be going down a similar path to Japan, with talk of a 'new phase' being reached.









						S. Korea entering ‘new phase’ in virus fight
					

South Korea’s fight against the new coronavirus may be entering a new phase of local transmission, the head of the state disease control center said Tuesday, as the country identified a third case with an unclear infection route.   “The situation here and abroad suggests we’re entering a new...



					www.koreaherald.com
				






> South Korea’s fight against the new coronavirus may be entering a new phase of local transmission, the head of the state disease control center said Tuesday, as the country identified a third case with an unclear infection route.
> 
> “The situation here and abroad suggests we’re entering a new phase,” Jung Eun-kyeong, head of the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in a press briefing.
> 
> “We have three cases yesterday and today with no overseas travel history. … As we expand screening and conduct more tests, there is a chance that we will see more of such cases,” the director said.



Its not mentioned in that article, but some machine translated stuff I read suggests they are also going to start routinely testing people who are hospitalised for pneumonia, to see if they are actually suffering from Covid-19.


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 18, 2020)

I've been reading about this latest Chinese report which seems the most comprehensive yet.  China releases largest study on Covid-19 outbreak

The thing that really stood out is the mortality rate is so much higher in the epicenter of the outbreak than elsewhere.   Does anyone have any thoughts on why that might be?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 18, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I've been reading about this latest Chinese report which seems the most comprehensive yet.  China releases largest study on Covid-19 outbreak
> 
> The thing that really stood out is the mortality rate is so much higher in the epicenter of the outbreak than elsewhere.   Does anyone have any thoughts on why that might be?



That's a fair different between 2.9% & 0.4%. There's been plenty of reports that mild cases were being turned away from hospitals in Wuhan, as they were so overwhelmed with the numbers, which would suggest they were not being tested, so those cases wouldn't be included in the overall figures, which I guess could explain the different.


----------



## maomao (Feb 18, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> The thing that really stood out is the mortality rate is so much higher in the epicenter of the outbreak than elsewhere. Does anyone have any thoughts on why that might be?


 Tracking has turned up lots of mild and asymptomatic cases whereas in Wuhan hospitals are overwhelmed to the point that only the most serious cases get medical attention. Less severe cases get no attention at all (though there are plenty of believable reports of people being sent home to die without being reported as well).

Also because they had it first the worst cases will have reached their conclusion, mortality rate could easily rise over time outside China.

Or it's possible that there is some local environmental factor that makes the virus more deadly. We know that normal flu is very seasonal so this isn't too much of a stretch. It's near the end of normal UK flu season now. If it depends on similar seasonal factors maybe it was a little to late too catch influenzas usual surge across continents.

Or something else.
.


----------



## elbows (Feb 18, 2020)

Yes to the stuff already mentioned, although probably not so much environmental factors, unless we are including failure to notice the outbreak was happening, overloaded hospitals, etc as part of environmental factors. 

Whatever the reasons, I dont usually take data from the first localised outbreak all that seriously. Its just too easy for early mortality rates to be out by at least one order of magnitude.

Plus the rate is only one part of the story. Which age groups are most susceptible can have quite the impact on how the outbreak affects society. eg as well as the low mortality rate, H1N1 2009 pandemic swine flu occured most obviously and dramatically in younger people. With hindsight they believe that older people probably had some partial immunity to the H1N1 2009 due to exposure to other particular strains of H1N1 that circulated much earlier in their lives. These older strains were not the same as the 2009 version, but had enough similarities to confer some effect. So far Covid-19 is showing a more traditional 'worse outcomes in older people' pattern, although there will still be some deaths of younger people, that grab attention for obvious reasons.


----------



## elbows (Feb 18, 2020)

I should have pointed out that when I was talking about different age groups, I was speaking more generally about number of cases, rather than number of deaths. But one does tend to have an impact on the other.

Anyway, I'm sticking to my 'its too early to put much weight on any of these numbers' stance for now. Mostly because I have the luxury of being able to do so, others who have to do pandemic planning have no choice but to use the various mortality numbers we already have, even if they may be way off.


----------



## elbows (Feb 18, 2020)

DexterTCN said:


> I don't think there have been any Americans so far.   They'd (the US) probably want to get their hands on a couple.



Just to tidy up the record, there were already 15 confirmed cases on US soil, before 14 more people who came from the cruise ship tested positive before being flown home.


----------



## DexterTCN (Feb 18, 2020)

elbows said:


> Just to tidy up the record, there were already 15 confirmed cases on US soil, before 14 more people who came from the cruise ship tested positive before being flown home.


Cheers.


----------



## elbows (Feb 18, 2020)

elbows said:


> Anyway there are other examples but I deliberately picked some of the worst ones (ones with longest date ranges between seeking treatment and getting diagnosed, most number of visits to different healthcare facilities during that time, etc). Many others were tested and found to be infected much more quickly than the ones I've listed. Point is, these particular cases were eventually spotted, but the criteria for who you suspect could have Covid-19 limits the ability to detect every case. ie No travel to certain regions or known contacts at the time, means they arent even looking for coronavirus in that patient. Presumably it was only a combination of persistence by the ill person, or a cluster/other cases being detected in the meantime that the new ill person can be linked to, that lead to eventual identification of these cases. For those in whom illness remains mild, there is unlikely to be the same level of persistence in seeking medical help, although some of them could still be picked up via contact tracing eventually. And its the same story in most other countries (though this will change eventually, as countries broaden the criteria in response to general community spread).



Todays press conference remarks by WHO director-general include useful information that Singapore has already switched to looking for cases far more broadly. I dont know when this switch happened, though it is not surprising as they are one of the countries that has spoken of a possible new phase, and we have seen this change elsewhere recently too.



> Yesterday I spoke to Singapore’s Minister of Health and we are very impressed with the efforts they are making to find every case, follow up with contacts, and stop transmission.
> 
> Singapore is leaving no stone unturned, testing every case of influenza-like illness and pneumonia. So far they have not found evidence of community transmission.



From WHO Director-General's remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 outbreak on 18 February 2020

The Singapore cases which I previously listed as examples of opportunities missed to spot these cases much earlier, should be much less likely to take so long to spot in future, because of this change.

As for the remark that 'they have not found evidence of community transmission', I would prefer a phrase such as 'sustained community transmission' or 'wider community transmission'. Because there have been a number of clusters in Singapore that featured human to human transmission, as well as a handful of cases that they havent been able to link to known clusters/locations/infected contacts.

It may seem like a minor point but language and terminology around this point matters because its the amount and nature of any community spread that will dictate whether this is a pandemic or not.

A WHO quote from yesterday does use an additional word to qualify that sort of remark:



> Dr. Mike Ryan, head of WHO’s emergencies program, said: “The real issue is whether we are seeing efficient community transmission outside of China and at the present time we are not observing that.”



From 'Every scenario on the table' in China virus outbreak: WHO's Tedros

And rather conveniently I can illustrate these stages using the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.

Here is a comment from early May 2009:



> Dr Ryan, meanwhile, said that there was "no evidence of sustained community spread outside of North America".



He did go on to suggest a pandemic was imminent back then, in May 2009, but at the time he was giving those quotes the threshold had not been crossed. The degree of community transmission in countries in a different region to the one where the outbreak began was a key indicator they used, and it took until June 11th 2009 to declare the pandemic. It was obvious to most people that it was a pandemic some time before then, but then we can always argue about exactly where the threshold should be.

For example, I dont know how many, or which, countries exactly would need to show sustained community transmission of this coronavirus in order for a pandemic to be declared. If it happens in Hong Kong, there is the 'thats still China' angle. If it happens in Singapore or Japan, there is the argument that is still the same region, and they might try to stretch things out until the same thing happens much further away. Or maybe the timing will render this question sort of irrelevant, if a bunch of places start to detect the same spread emerging at about the same time. Or maybe this focus of mine will turn out to be pointless because a pandemic wont happen after all (I havent quite given up on this possibility yet!).

It is a pretty safe bet that if my own personal threshold for that stuff is crossed, I will keep calling this a pandemic even if its not officially one yet. It's unlikely I will be far out on a limb if this happens though, my threshold shouldnt be wacky or paranoid, its just the WHO ones tend to be a tad too conservative/lag behind a touch.

So far there is no large disconnect between my own opinion of the situation and phase, and what the WHO says. Just a difference in mood music and emphasis, some of which stems from me being a lone human with no diplomatic or sugar-coating responsibilities.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 18, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I've been reading about this latest Chinese report which seems the most comprehensive yet.  China releases largest study on Covid-19 outbreak
> 
> The thing that really stood out is the mortality rate is so much higher in the epicenter of the outbreak than elsewhere.   Does anyone have any thoughts on why that might be?



Outside of China ICUs have not been saturated yet. If you need intensive care and all beds are full what can be done? I have great sympathy for the medical staff having to make these decisions. This trauma will leave its mark.


----------



## elbows (Feb 18, 2020)

One more for the asymptomatic cases (or alternatively testing positive before later showing symptoms) pile:



> That brings the total number of cases from the ship to 542, and the total number across all of Japan to 615.
> 
> Health ministry officials say among the people who were recently confirmed to be infected. 65 are not exhibiting any symptoms.











						Another 95 infection cases confirmed in Japan | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
					

Japanese authorities say nearly 100 people were confirmed on Tuesday to be infected with the new coronavirus, including one person under the age of 20.




					www3.nhk.or.jp


----------



## donkyboy (Feb 18, 2020)

Coronavirus sounds like a name of a dinosaur


----------



## Callie (Feb 18, 2020)

donkyboy said:


> Coronavirus sounds like a name of a dinosaur


No


----------



## DexterTCN (Feb 18, 2020)

There's no antidote to this, why do people think going to the hospital will help?


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 18, 2020)

donkyboy said:


> Coronavirus sounds like a name of a dinosaur



There was Kronosaurus about 100 million years ago - they were carnivores around the size of a bus, so if I had to choose between the two, I would take my chances with the virus.


----------



## elbows (Feb 18, 2020)

DexterTCN said:


> There's no antidote to this, why do people think going to the hospital will help?



Its not a poison, so its not as simple as antidote or not.

A range of treatments and life-supporting measures are available in general for people experiencing various degrees of respiratory distress. Many severe cases will not be fatal, in great part as a result of this sort of care.

Going to the hospital (ater checking with authorities) is also happening for the purposes of actually testing people, rather than treatment. This will change if/when the outbreak becomes much larger, and then the priority will be providing care to severe cases. Milder cases will be told to stay at home, and will be discouraged from clogging up the healthcare system at all, unless their condition deteriorates in which case they join the severe cases.

Experimental treatments are being tied in China. And there have been stories recently about a call for people who were infected but recovered, to donate blood so they can use their blood plasma to treat severe cases.


----------



## DexterTCN (Feb 18, 2020)

In the UK the advice is only to self-isolate though.   No matter the symptoms.  









						Coronavirus (COVID-19)
					

NHS advice about coronavirus (COVID-19), including information on symptoms, testing, vaccination and staying at home.




					www.nhs.uk


----------



## Callie (Feb 18, 2020)

DexterTCN said:


> In the UK the advice is only to self-isolate though.   No matter the symptoms.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


But also to call 111 if you fit the case criteria, for testing to be arranged if appropriate and triage dependant on symptoms. So to "self-isolate" is not the only advice.


----------



## elbows (Feb 18, 2020)

DexterTCN said:


> In the UK the advice is only to self-isolate though.   No matter the symptoms.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



No. 

Part of the advice is to get people to be sensible about self-isolation, and to call 111, dont randomly turn up at a hospital, clinic etc.

The actual severity of your illness is an entirely different matter that is not well covered by that particular page of advice at all. 

And the current advice is still for a phase where they are aiming the advice at people with certain travel history or links to other cases. If the phase of outbreak in the UK is determined to have changed, the advice will be adjusted to suit the new circumstances.


----------



## DexterTCN (Feb 18, 2020)

> Do not go to a GP surgery or hospital. Call 111, stay indoors and avoid close contact with other people.


----------



## elbows (Feb 18, 2020)

Yes, I just made reference to that.

It doesnt mean people who get real sick from it dont end up in hospital. At the moment in the UK even people that are not really very sick at all will still end up in hospital if they test positive for it. Calling 111 is the beginning.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 18, 2020)

Over 2000 deaths now clocked up.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 18, 2020)

How many deaths before we get consensus on not eating meat?

Don’t flame, answer.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Feb 18, 2020)

DexterTCN 

The advice is clearly to call 111 as a first option, not to self-isolate.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Feb 18, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> How many deaths before we get consensus on not eating meat?
> 
> Don’t flame, answer.



That's specific but then very vague - what do you actually mean?


----------



## elbows (Feb 18, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> How many deaths before we get consensus on not eating meat?
> 
> Don’t flame, answer.



There will be no consensus on that from this outbreak, no matter if it becomes a pandemic that kills many people.

The issue will be zoomed in on, and broader questions about eating animals at all will not get much of a look in. Markets with live animals, and especially markets with live animals that were caught in the wild, will get most of the attention.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 18, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> That's specific but then very vague - what do you actually mean?



Exactly that.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 18, 2020)

Have they bombed that ship yet?


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 18, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Have they bombed that ship yet?



That ship has sailed.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Feb 19, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Exactly that.



The 'vague' bit was about you saying 'Don't flame, answer'. 
I see elbows went some way to respond but it's that that I was questioning - because I really don't understand what you're saying and I would like to - but 'exactly that' doesn't answer it.  
If you can't be arsed to explain, that's fine with me, but if you can - after you've dropped something that sounds quite important - I'd like to hear it!


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 19, 2020)

Several times now, I've seen the advice over here in response to the outbreak to thoroughly cook meat and eggs. I mean, OK, fine, no dippy eggs for a while, but why?  How is cooking meat and eggs related to the transmission of the virus? _Is_ it? Are they just sneaking a bit of extra health advice in while they've got our attention?


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 19, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> There was Kronosaurus about 100 million years ago - they were carnivores around the size of a bus, so if I had to choose between the two, I would take my chances with the virus.
> 
> View attachment 199036



Clearly a plesisoaur, not a dinosaur. HTH.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 19, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> The 'vague' bit was about you saying 'Don't flame, answer'.
> I see elbows went some way to respond but it's that that I was questioning - because I really don't understand what you're saying and I would like to - but 'exactly that' doesn't answer it.
> If you can't be arsed to explain, that's fine with me, but if you can - after you've dropped something that sounds quite important - I'd like to hear it!



This and other recent emerging diseases originate from eating animals. Scaling to the meat eating needs of an ever growing population is clearly not sustainable both for the environment and for public health.


----------



## elbows (Feb 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Several times now, I've seen the advice over here in response to the outbreak to thoroughly cook meat and eggs. I mean, OK, fine, no dippy eggs for a while, but why?  How is cooking meat and eggs related to the transmission of the virus? _Is_ it? Are they just sneaking a bit of extra health advice in while they've got our attention?



The World Health Organisation do this too. eg a bunch of the stuff on this page relate to food safety:









						Advice for the public on COVID-19 – World Health Organization
					

Simple precautions to reduce your chances of being infected or spreading COVID-19.




					www.who.int
				




In addition to this stuff likely being there because its a part of a standard parcel of generic response messages, I suspect this stuff is mentioned because they like to cover bases that are a subject of misinformation and fear. Rather than just countering specific bogus claims, or reassuring people that 'you cannot catch it this way', they would probably rather stick in some general tips for handling meat and dairy etc, so that they have at least addressed something to do with animals and food. And since so much advice during outbreaks is bound to be about hygiene, its not much of a leap to start talking about food hygiene too.

Reasons not to take this approach, to avoid including that stuff in public health messages about Covid-19, are that it could cause confusion about the main sorts transmission risks, or otherwise dilute the message. Certainly the UK tends to favour a very limited and focussed message in these sorts of campaigns, 'catch it, bin it' and wash your hands type stuff, and I would be more surprised if general food hygiene stuff was added to the message here.

Note that there are also various items on that WHO page related specifically to live animal markets, and these are far more specifically tuned to the assumed origins of this coronavirus. But again this is likely as much about responding to things that people have heard about, that may be on their minds, than the main ongoing risks in the current outbreak, which is mostly all about human to human spread now, not animals.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Several times now, I've seen the advice over here in response to the outbreak to thoroughly cook meat and eggs. I mean, OK, fine, no dippy eggs for a while, but why?  How is cooking meat and eggs related to the transmission of the virus? _Is_ it? Are they just sneaking a bit of extra health advice in while they've got our attention?



Probs propaganda. Makes the population think you have some power over your fate. It also plants the seed to blame personal behaviour rather than a lack of government governance as a factor.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 19, 2020)

Does this mean I have to stop biting the heads off chickens?


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 19, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Does this mean I have to stop biting the heads off chickens?



The humble chicken may have the last laugh.


----------



## elbows (Feb 19, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Probs propaganda. Makes the population think you have some power over your fate. It also plants the seed to blame personal behaviour rather than a lack of government governance as a factor.



We do have some power over our fate. Not a lot, and not always, but not none.

Governments receive a mix of fair and unfair criticism in these situations, and it is true that this is often factored into the messages they choose. But since part of good governance includes sending the right public health messages and trying to get people to do their bit to halt the spread, and that really matters, I may find it hard to do this subject justice without throwing the baby out with the bathwater.


----------



## Supine (Feb 19, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Does this mean I have to stop biting the heads off chickens?



As we've told you already, if you must do this make sure they're your own chickens.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 19, 2020)

15 cases of the virus confirmed overnight here in South Korea. They're walking around spraying the hotel we're staying in with disinfectant right now. People are still going without masks, sniffing, touching their noses, touching the lift buttons. I am struggling to conceal my annoyance.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 19, 2020)

This needs to be said if you have an infectious illness do not go into work and definitely do not bring that shit onto public transport.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Several times now, I've seen the advice over here in response to the outbreak to thoroughly cook meat and eggs. I mean, OK, fine, no dippy eggs for a while, but why?  How is cooking meat and eggs related to the transmission of the virus? _Is_ it? Are they just sneaking a bit of extra health advice in while they've got our attention?


Sensible precautions really - and probably reduces risk overall.  People might be more susceptible to catching crow flu if they're already ill with food poisoning, or whatever.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 19, 2020)

I just moved on the train to away from cold and flu snifflers and sat down in the middle of 4 more.

Wankers.


----------



## maomao (Feb 19, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> I just moved on the train to away from cold and flu snifflers and sat down in the middle of 4 more.
> 
> Wankers.


Probably a good fifth of the workforce has a cold of some sort during January and February. You'd have to shut the country down if everyone took time off for a little cough


----------



## Cid (Feb 19, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> I just moved on the train to away from cold and flu snifflers and sat down in the middle of 4 more.
> 
> Their bosses are Wankers.



Corrected for you.


----------



## elbows (Feb 19, 2020)

maomao said:


> Probably a good fifth of the workforce has a cold of some sort during January and February. You'd have to shut the country down if everyone took time off for a little cough



Japan has reached that stage:









						Japan PM Abe urges people with cold-like symptoms to avoid work, school
					

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has advised people across the country not to go to work or school if they develop cold-like symptoms, as the country grapples with the spread of a new coronavirus originating in China.




					english.kyodonews.net
				






> Workplaces in the country, known for their long hours, need to encourage people to take days off without hesitation if they do not feel well, Abe said.
> 
> "The first thing that I want the people of Japan to keep in mind is to take time off school or work and refrain from leaving the house if they develop cold-like symptoms such as fever," Abe told a meeting of a government task force on the viral outbreak.


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> 15 cases of the virus confirmed overnight here in South Korea. They're walking around spraying the hotel we're staying in with disinfectant right now. People are still going without masks, sniffing, touching their noses, touching the lift buttons. I am struggling to conceal my annoyance.



I've been thinking about the mask thing a lot recently and whilst I do appreciate there are some benefits as outlined on this thread I do think there is a futility to it all.  I go to the gym and everyone is touching every piece of equipment and wiping sweat.  You can't exercise with masks.  Eating and drinking out etc 

I'm off to SE Asia (Cambodia) next week and I can't decide whether it will be a good idea or not.  My g/f who is a neuroscientist thinks its a waste of time.  We've not got colds or anything at the moment and I'm worried about wondering around trying to eat and drink out wearing masks when the locals probably won't be.  Would I end up looking like a Western twat with a side portion of racism...


----------



## TopCat (Feb 19, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> I just moved on the train to away from cold and flu snifflers and sat down in the middle of 4 more.
> 
> Wankers.


Server in my local shop snotted all over their hand, then a little wipe on lapel.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 19, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I've been thinking about the mask thing a lot recently and whilst I do appreciate there are some benefits as outlined on this thread I do think there is a futility to it all.  I go to the gym and everyone is touching every piece of equipment and wiping sweat.  You can't exercise with masks.  Eating and drinking out etc
> 
> I'm off to SE Asia (Cambodia) next week and I can't decide whether it will be a good idea or not.  My g/f who is a neuroscientist thinks its a waste of time.  We've not got colds or anything at the moment and I'm worried about wondering around trying to eat and drink out wearing masks when the locals probably won't be.  Would I end up looking like a Western twat with a side portion of racism...



I was in China before I got to Korea, and I've been religiously wearing the mask because I was worried _I_ might be contagious. I think that's the thing - if we all walk around acting like everyone might infect us, this won't work. We have to assume _we're_ the infectious person. I don't know. I'm in such a heightened state of anxiety since this all kicked off that I don't know what's rational and what's hysterical any more.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 19, 2020)

The Guardian reports on the ship of doom. 

After spending time on the ship, Iwata told the Guardian: “The cruise ship was totally inadequate in terms of infection control. A lot of officials are insisting there have been no secondary infections aboard the ship [since quarantine began] … that is their best-case scenario and they are sticking to that. They don’t want to accept that their plan has failed.”


----------



## andysays (Feb 19, 2020)

TopCat said:


> The Guardian reports on the ship of doom.
> 
> After spending time on the ship, Iwata told the Guardian: “The cruise ship was totally inadequate in terms of infection control. A lot of officials are insisting there have been no secondary infections aboard the ship [since quarantine began] … that is their best-case scenario and they are sticking to that. They don’t want to accept that their plan has failed.”


I read a similar story on the BBC, but TBH I thought the main point of the quarantine was to stop it spreading beyond the people on the ship, rather than between them.


----------



## NoXion (Feb 19, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> How many deaths before we get consensus on not eating meat?
> 
> Don’t flame, answer.



How many people have to die of E. coli infection before we get a consensus on not eating vegetables?


----------



## TopCat (Feb 19, 2020)

andysays said:


> I read a similar story on the BBC, but TBH I thought the main point of the quarantine was to stop it spreading beyond the people on the ship, rather than between them.


Yeah hence why I jokingly predicted  they would bomb the ship


----------



## elbows (Feb 19, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Feb 19, 2020)

There have already been clusters of cases in Singapore that are linked to particular places of worship.

Now it sounds like South Korea has detected something similar:



> South Korea reported 15 new cases of the coronavirus on Wednesday, including 10 people involved in a surprise outbreak traced to several church services in the central city of Daegu.





> Hundreds of people are believed to have attended services with Patient 31 in recent weeks at a branch of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus the Temple of the Tabernacle of the Testimony, a religious movement founded in 1984 by South Korean Lee Man-hee, who is revered as a messiah by followers.











						South Korea reports 20 new coronavirus cases, church services at center of outbreak
					

South Korea reported 20 new cases of the coronavirus on Wednesday, including 14 people involved in an outbreak traced to several church services in the central city of Daegu.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## TopCat (Feb 19, 2020)

Ye gods.


----------



## elbows (Feb 19, 2020)

Uh oh, I have to mention faecal pathways and rectal swabs again!



			https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/22221751.2020.1729071#.Xk0snlo7ZWY.twitter
		




> We found the presence of 2019-nCoV in anal swabs and blood as well, and more anal swab positives than oral swab positives in a later stage of infection, suggesting shedding and thereby transmitted through oral–fecal route. We also showed serology test can improve detection positive rate thus should be used in future epidemiology. Our report provides a cautionary warning that 2019-nCoV may be shed through multiple routes.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 19, 2020)

How long before fatalism sets in and people start holding chicken-pox-style parties so they get the infections over with?


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 19, 2020)

Its not looking great is it?


----------



## andysays (Feb 19, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Yeah hence why I jokingly predicted  they would bomb the ship


I say we take off and nuke the entire site from orbit...


----------



## Virtual Blue (Feb 19, 2020)

I'd still rather be on that corono-ship than the one from Event Horizon.


----------



## Supine (Feb 19, 2020)

Rather surprisingly the main remdesivir clinical trial in China is having problems enrolling patients. So far they only have <200 patients signed up from the required 700. 

To show effectives they need patients who haven't been given other products in the last thirty days. That's proving problematic.


----------



## Cid (Feb 20, 2020)

Supine said:


> Rather surprisingly the main remdesivir clinical trial in China is having problems enrolling patients. So far they only have <200 patients signed up from the required 700.
> 
> To show effectives they need patients who haven't been given other products in the last thirty days. That's proving problematic.



What constitutes other products in this case?


----------



## Supine (Feb 20, 2020)

Cid said:


> What constitutes other products in this case?



It'll be anything used to treat flu/covid so could.range from oxygen to other anti viral medications or probably Chinese herbal treatments. They basically need the fresh presentations at hospital who havnt had medical intervention.


----------



## Cid (Feb 20, 2020)

Supine said:


> It'll be anything used to treat flu/covid so could.range from oxygen to other anti viral medications or probably Chinese herbal treatments. They basically need the fresh presentations at hospital who havnt had medical intervention.



Yeah, I was wondering about the latter, since TCM is still widely used. I also wonder how the over-prescription of antibiotics is shaping up under this crisis.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 20, 2020)

Situation in South Korea and in Daegu shows rapid cross-infection









						Navy sailor tests positive for coronavirus in initial examination | Yonhap News Agency
					

(ATTN: CORRECTS accounts as case not confirmed yet) SEOUL, Feb. 20 (Yonhap) -- A South Ko...




					en.yna.co.kr
				












						South Korea's Hynix says 800 workers to stay home after trainee had contact with virus patient
					

South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix said on Thursday that 800 of its workers had quarantined themselves as a precautionary measure to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, but its production in the city of Icheon has not been affected.  The move came after one trainee had close contact with a virus...




					sg.finance.yahoo.com
				




Now 104 confirmed in total 

The cases from the church in Daegu a super-spreading event:

_She first developed a fever on 10 February but reportedly twice refused to be tested for the coronavirus on the grounds that she had not recently travelled abroad. She attended at least four services before being diagnosed.

So far, 37 other members of the church have been confirmed as infected.

Shincheonji claims that its founder, Lee Man-hee, has donned the mantle of Jesus Christ and will take 144,000 people with him to Heaven, body and soul, on the Day of Judgement.

Daegu’s municipal government said there were 1,001 Shincheonji members in the city, all of whom had been asked to self-quarantine, with 90 of them currently showing symptoms._


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

Cid said:


> Yeah, I was wondering about the latter, since TCM is still widely used. I also wonder how the over-prescription of antibiotics is shaping up under this crisis.



I havent checked properly but I sort of expect many hospitalised cases will have been given the usual antibiotics to reduce the chance of secondary infections, including infections from medical equipment (eg from intubation).


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

The South Korea stuff is sad to hear about but not particularly unexpected (its one of the countries I've been droning on about recently).

Iran announcing its first two cases, and its first two deaths on the same day wasnt good.

China changed the case criteria for Hubei back to something more like what it was before the previous change, so a positive test result is required again. Good thing I wasnt trying to get a full picture from trends in these numbers in the first place.

Japan is getting more of the criticism it deserves for its handling of the boat. I hope their handling of the outbreak in their country improves and does not remind me of their response to Fukushima so much, but I have my doubts.


----------



## Cid (Feb 20, 2020)

elbows said:


> I havent checked properly but I sort of expect many hospitalised cases will have been given the usual antibiotics to reduce the chance of secondary infections, including infections from medical equipment (eg from intubation).



I meant in the context of Supine ‘s post. Overprescribing antibiotics has long been a problem in China, and any use of antibiotics would presumably rule a patient out wrt remdesivir trials.


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

Yes fair enough, I was off in another direction when I heard oxygen and medical intervention. It does sound like they've had particular trouble recruiting many mild cases, although I suppose there could be several other reasons for that.

Meanwhile, one of the Singapore cases that was publicly reported as positive on Feb 19th, has the same kind of long delay between initially seeking treatment, and detection, as I have mentioned previously with a few of the prior cases they detected:



> He reported onset of symptoms on 28 January and had sought treatment at a general practitioner (GP) clinic on 1 February, 5 February, 6 February and 10 February. He went to NCID on 18 February, and subsequent test results confirmed COVID-19 infection on 19 February morning.





			https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/default-document-library/press-release---three-more-cases-discharged_-one-new-case-of-covid-19-infection-confirmedfa895d58592a4c1088f51937bc311479.pdf


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

Ignoring the stupid headline, this opinion piece is worrying but not surprising.

It's informative for describing a number of ways the system will come under immense strain at one of the first hurdles, if public information campaigns arent timed properly or lack the right emphasis or magnitude.

Other stuff, such as their personal protective equipment training being cancelled due to a shortage of kits, underlines specific concerns about the supply chain, but also the fragile state of things at the best of times due to longterm underfunding.









						I work at a walk-in health centre. The coronavirus super-worriers are a problem | Anonymous
					

A public information campaign is urgently needed to tell people that all bar the very ill should access help from home, says an anonymous lead clinician




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

As for the timing of new public health messages in the UK, I suppose its a tricky moment right now. If they start some stuff 'too soon' then it might panic people even more initially, especially as there have been no recent UK positive cases so we have been in a sort of holding pattern for a while now. We can already see from a few other countries what the updated message might look like, and how it emerges in response to signs of wider community spread. I suppose my default assumption is that we wont get that stuff until/unless community spread is confirmed or at least close to being confirmed in the UK. But it is possible they could start sooner, especially if the situation in some countries other than China leads to a widespread conclusion that this is an inevitable pandemic, even before such a scenario is detected as happening in the UK.

Meanwhile in the current phase, I was slightly surprised that more was not made of the person who presented themselves at a London hospital unannounced. The media and the health officials they quote did complain loudly about this case, as an example of what not to do, but this attention seemed very brief. But I suppose again its a case of struggling to sustain such messages when there isnt any new UK news to keep fuelling this angle.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 20, 2020)

Can anyone on here make sense if this and know if it’s legitimate?



			https://www.med.unc.edu/orfeome/files/2018/03/a-sars-like-cluster-of-circulating-bat-coronaviruses-shows-potential-for-human-emergence.pdf


----------



## maomao (Feb 20, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Can anyone on here make sense if this and know if it’s legitimate?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.med.unc.edu/orfeome/files/2018/03/a-sars-like-cluster-of-circulating-bat-coronaviruses-shows-potential-for-human-emergence.pdf


Yes


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Can anyone on here make sense if this and know if it’s legitimate?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.med.unc.edu/orfeome/files/2018/03/a-sars-like-cluster-of-circulating-bat-coronaviruses-shows-potential-for-human-emergence.pdf



This blog post from 2015 describes the study, and some of the responses to it in the media at the time:





__





						Bat SARS-like coronavirus: It’s not SARS 2.0!
					

Criticisms of a new study on the potential of SARS-virus-like bat coronaviruses to cause human disease have little merit.




					www.virology.ws
				




I havent checked but it would not surprise me to learn that a bunch of half-baked theories and suspicions are making use of this sort of work to try to 'prove' something sinister in regards the Covid-19 outbreak.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 20, 2020)

elbows said:


> This blog post from 2015 describes the study, and some of the responses to it in the media at the time:
> 
> 
> 
> ...





> *a recombinant virus was created* in which the gene encoding the spike glycoprotein of SARS virus was swapped with the gene from a bat virus called SHC014.



Think that article you linked is basically saying the Coronavirus was created in a lab


----------



## Cid (Feb 20, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Think that article you linked is basically saying the Coronavirus was created in a lab



It's saying _a_ coronavirus was created in a lab. Or rather assembled from other bits of coronavirus... With the aim of seeing what might happen in the wild.


----------



## Cid (Feb 20, 2020)

I was going to say probably not in Wuhan. But Wuhan does in fact have a level 4 virology lab, so conspiracy-theorise away...   

(I'm sure that's been mentioned somewhere, dunno how I missed that)

e2a: ah yeah, early on there were various conspiracy theories weren't there? Just being forgetful.


----------



## Supine (Feb 20, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Can anyone on here make sense if this and know if it’s legitimate?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.med.unc.edu/orfeome/files/2018/03/a-sars-like-cluster-of-circulating-bat-coronaviruses-shows-potential-for-human-emergence.pdf



Gene splicing has been around for a while. I'm pretty sure one of the studies linked to earlier (Lancet maybe) debunked this being a man made virus. There were too many sections unique to covid-19 to make it anything but a natural phenomena.


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Think that article you linked is basically saying the Coronavirus was created in a lab



There are a bunch of coronaviruses we know about. Some of them have existed in human populations for a long time, they are some of the viruses that are responsible for 'the common cold'.They were studied a bit, but were not much of a priority.

Then in 2003 the SARS outbreak happened, and then later the MERS. These are also coronaviruses, but with more serious implications for human health, so research and experimentation in this area picked up massively.

It is not in dispute that various labs have worked with various coronaviruses for years, including experiments where the coronavirus was altered in some way.

Nor would I dispute that lab accidents can happen. I have mentioned before that the 1977 H1N1 flu pandemic points in the direction of a lab release. The main indicator of that possibility involved various clues specific to that particular strain of flu at that time. It was so similar to a 1950 sample that was used in labs, that the possibility seemed more plausible than the other, natural possibilities.

But for theories about Covid-19 coming from a lab to gain any merit, they have to demonstrate something similar, or some other conclusive revelation has to emerge. I cannot completely exclude the possibility, but I'm pretty sure I can exclude all the people quacking about it right now because they dont have the evidence of that at all. Mostly they have the same thing that many theories have, which is just wide-eyed disbelief upon discovering something about the way the world already worked, that was already publicly acknowledged long ago, and then making a huge leap while sloppily joining dots. That sort of dot joining is usually rubbish, and when the dots consist of extremely technical papers and data, I expect to see plenty of unscientific humbug and conclusions that are well wide of the mark. I keep an open mind to the actual possibilities, but not the narratives built on imagined smoking guns that are nothing of the sort.


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

Cid said:


> I was going to say probably not in Wuhan. But Wuhan does in fact have a level 4 virology lab, so conspiracy-theorise away...
> 
> (I'm sure that's been mentioned somewhere, dunno how I missed that)
> 
> e2a: ah yeah, early on there were various conspiracy theories weren't there? Just being forgetful.



Unfortunately I believe some of those theories must have gained traction recently. I've done a great job of utterly avoiding them myself, but I keep seeing mainstream responses to them, and I find it very easy to imagine what the theories are.

Its also easy to imagine that Marty1 has read some but knows we will take a massive shit on his source if he reveals it, hence this roundabout way of bringing it up via some of their 'evidence' rather than the actual conspiracy articles/sites.


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

Still I might have had a direct look at some of the theories if I thought any of them were likely to be well balanced or suitably tentative, or if I was lacking faith in the natural explanations.

But frankly there is likely to be so much discovered about natural animal reservoirs of coronaviruses that are quite similar to the one thats caused this outbreak in humans, that I would rather spend any time I have for the subject on that stuff for now.

For example I just saw this, which I havent read properly yet, but sounds like it certainly builds on the pangolin picture.

By the way SARS-CoV-2 is one of the names for the virus in the current outbreak (its the disease in humans thats been called Covid-19, not the actual virus) but there are still disputes about what the virus name should be. But since SARS-CoV-2 is what its referred to as in this tweet, I had to mention this.


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

From the 'trying to turn an overreaction into a useful message' department...



> FUKUOKA -- A train in this southwestern Japan city was delayed by several minutes on the evening of Feb. 18, after a passenger hit an emergency button because someone else was coughing without wearing a mask.





> A transportation bureau representative commented, "We'd like to ask people to refrain from pushing the emergency notification button just because there is someone without a mask. We're calling on passengers to show proper manners when they cough, and want to publicize this more."











						Man hits emergency button on train in Japan after passenger coughs without mask - The Mainichi
					

FUKUOKA -- A train in this southwestern Japan city was delayed by several minutes on the evening of Feb. 18, after a passenger hit an emergency button




					mainichi.jp


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 20, 2020)

"Uh-oh, somebody is coughing without a mask on this train, I'd better hit the emergency button so the train can stop and we can all spend a few more minutes with his droplets."


----------



## sihhi (Feb 20, 2020)

I recommend NYT journalist Farnaz Fassihi on Iran 

Brother of dead coronavirus patient in Qom is a member of Iran's central medical committee. He disputes government account, says his brother was 60, not elderly & had no existing  health issues, caught the virus in the streets of Qom. He accuses officials of "cover up." 

Several more suspected coronavirus cases reported in other cities in Iran. Tehran shut down a potentially contaminated subway station in downtown & Isfahan disinfecting subway stations.


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

The implications seem broadly in line with what was suspected via anecdotal evidence and previous data. So there isnt much point me keep saying 'this makes containment harder' because I think we were already working with these assumptions. Still worthy of putting this detail on the record though I think.



> Our analysis suggests that the viral nucleic acid shedding pattern of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 resembles that of patients with influenza and appears different from that seen in patients infected with SARS-CoV. The viral load that was detected in the asymptomatic patient was similar to that in the symptomatic patients, which suggests the transmission potential of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic patients. These findings are in concordance with reports that transmission may occur early in the course of infection and suggest that case detection and isolation may require strategies different from those required for the control of SARS-CoV. How SARS-CoV-2 viral load correlates with culturable virus needs to be determined. Identification of patients with few or no symptoms and with modest levels of detectable viral RNA in the oropharynx for at least 5 days suggests that we need better data to determine transmission dynamics and inform our screening practices.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 20, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> "Uh-oh, somebody is coughing without a mask on this train, I'd better hit the emergency button so the train can stop and we can all spend a few more minutes with his droplets."



I imagine the alarm ringer's aim was to reinforce the main message the government have been stressing:









						Japan PM Abe urges people with cold-like symptoms to avoid work, school
					

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has advised people across the country not to go to work or school if they develop cold-like symptoms, as the country grapples with the spread of a new coronavirus originating in China.




					english.kyodonews.net


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 20, 2020)

Hong Kong's health secretary, meanwhile, should probably have worn a different outfit to a press conference on virus control efforts...


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

Seems rather appropriate to me, and probably did to her too.


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I recommend NYT journalist Farnaz Fassihi on Iran
> 
> Brother of dead coronavirus patient in Qom is a member of Iran's central medical committee. He disputes government account, says his brother was 60, not elderly & had no existing  health issues, caught the virus in the streets of Qom. He accuses officials of "cover up."



Really I hope not to have to use her as my main Iran source, and anyway her source for that particular piece of news was the Farsi version of radio Farda (US-funded).

Anyway I looked into this because 'Iran's central medical committee' was too vague for my tastes.

Via the original article, I am left with a reason to believe that it might be the Islamic Association of Iranian Medical Society that is being referred to. And according to wikipedia that is an Iranian reformist political party.





__





						Islamic Association of Iranian Medical Society - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				












						«منبع انتقال کرونا در ایران هنوز مشخص نیست»، شناسایی مورد مشکوک در مترو شوش
					

یک عضو شورای مرکزی انجمن اسلامی جامعه پزشکی ایران که برادر خود را در قم بر اثر ابتلا به ویروس کرونا از دست داده است از تلاش مقام‌های بیمارستانی برای «خاموش نگاه داشتن» موارد این بیماری انتقاد کرد و از مرگ «ده‌ها» نفر در قم با علائمی مشابه وی خبر داد.




					www.radiofarda.com
				




I dont have any farsi skills to confirm this properly myself, I had to rely on her telling someone the source on twitter, then machine translation to point me in the right direction. And then I just looked for stuff that looked the same to me visually in the first proper line of that article, and the name as shown on wikipedia, and they looked rather similar to me.


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

Still a useful source for finding out what stuff I need to find more out about elsewhere though, so thanks for the tip!

For example I learnt that Iran has elections tomorrow


----------



## sihhi (Feb 20, 2020)

elbows said:


> Really I hope not to have to use her as my main Iran source, and anyway her source for that particular piece of news was the Farsi version of radio Farda (US-funded).



The organisation might be the "Medical Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran" the main professional organisation for doctors.
Radio Farda is Radio Liberty's Persian service funded by the US in the same way that BBC World Service Persian is funded by Britain.

There are other non-government journalist saying similar things I believe.

If the average time from infection to death is two weeks, then the virus could have infected a lot of people already, hope things can turn out well.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 20, 2020)

elbows said:


> Still a useful source for finding out what stuff I need to find more out about elsewhere though, so thanks for the tip!
> 
> For example I learnt that Iran has elections tomorrow



She filed the NYT coverage of the Iranian government denying it shot the plane even when it was obvious. I don't speak Farsi so I am no good beyond that. 

With Chinese, however I can say this: I know one guy whose parents are in Wuhan and one who is presently in another city in Hubei with his wife - situation is food prices at least double on the twice a week shopping trips allowed (3 hours there and back). One Wechat contact has updated on how an Wechat acquaintance of his lost his brother and father. 
Someone else with family back there saying the deaths are  much more because of people dying at home, says that his relatives suspect having something being picked from inside their xiaoqu put into a van and drive off and then an ambulance or disinfection van also come in an hour or so later.


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2020)

sihhi said:


> The organisation might be the "Medical Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran" the main professional organisation for doctors.



Well one of my images in the previous post was from the Farsi version of the source article she used, thats as far as I can take it. Some aspects of his comment make more sense if he is speaking as a member of a political party anyway, I'm not using this to judge whether what he is saying is true or not, just to explain his tone and to be aware of certain potential motivations.



> Radio Farda is Radio Liberty's Persian service funded by the US in the same way that BBC World Service Persian is funded by Britain.



Yes, and thats exactly why I want other sources too. Such media are still useful because they rely on various sorts of credibility to fulfil their function. Reporting stuff that is true or at least credible is an advantage they make great use of vs controlled state media of the regime they are targeting. But I must still pay attention to the bias in areas such as framing, and their limited ability to operate on the ground in the country and resulting over-reliance on the diaspora and overtly politicised sources.



> If the average time from infection to death is two weeks, then the virus could have infected a lot of people already, hope things can turn out well.



Its the same story in most places I suppose, the picture that emerges now tends to give us more clues as to what the reality was several weeks ago, and we are left to imagine how much further it has spread by now, or not spread. Tip of iceberg stuff again, but with no definitive guide as to the actual size of iceberg. No country has yet actually suspected, tested and publicly confirmed a community outbreak of sufficient size and spread for me to get past this series of 'iceberg tips emerging' and on to a clearer view of what lies below the water. Well, most other things we are learning about this virus point in the direction of the icebergs being rather large and unstoppable, but without the actual confirmed cases really exploding in number somewhere, there are definite limits to how much pointing below the water and shouting I should do.


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

elbows said:


> Unfortunately I believe some of those theories must have gained traction recently. I've done a great job of utterly avoiding them myself, but I keep seeing mainstream responses to them, and I find it very easy to imagine what the theories are.



I should be more specific regarding what I mean by mainstream responses to these theories.









						Experts fear false rumours could harm Chinese cooperation on coronavirus
					

World-leading specialists offer support to Chinese scientists amid ‘crackpot’ theories that virus was manufactured in a lab




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 21, 2020)

2,247 deaths so far. Be aware China cannot seem to stop cooking the books on this one.


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

South Korea cases jumped up again.



> Of the 52 new cases, 41 are in Daegu, 300 kilometers southeast of Seoul, and the neighboring North Gyeongsang Province. Another three were reported in Seoul, the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said in a statement.
> 
> The spike of infections in Daegu and several cases in Seoul, where routes of infections are not immediately traceable, have prompted health officials to declare that COVID-19 has begun spreading locally.











						S. Korea steps up containment efforts as virus cases jump to 208
					

South Korea said Friday the new coronavirus is in the initial stage of a full-blown outbreak, but stressed that it is still "manageable," although the number of infections has almost quadrupled in just three days.  The country reported 104 new cases of the novel coronavirus as of 7 p.m. on...



					www.koreaherald.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

Shitty 









						Coronavirus: Ukraine protesters attack buses carrying China evacuees
					

President Volodymyr Zelensky urged people to show solidarity and remember "we are all human".



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

Other countries may end up offering important clues about the scale of the outbreak in Iran. Looks like Canada has found a case whose recent travel history is Iran!



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/coronavirus-bc-update-1.5470757
		




> The latest patient is a woman in her 30s who lives in the Fraser Health region, according to provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry. She had recently returned from a trip to Iran and is now recovering at home.
> 
> Henry said officials were surprised when they learn that the woman had only visited Iran in her travels, and not China or neighbouring countries that have seen the bulk of COVID-19 infections.
> 
> "That could be an indicator that there's more widespread transmission. This is what we call an indicator or sentinel event," Henry told a news conference.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 21, 2020)

elbows said:


> South Korea cases jumped up again.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I don't understand this: _Still, the authorities have kept the virus alert at the third-highest, or "orange," level, but the virus response will be carried out with an urgency appropriate to the "red" level, Park said._

I suspect this is the pressure of investors hoping not to 'disturb markets'

Korea now has 208 confirmed cases, plus an extra 544 members of the Shinchonji Daegu church showing symptoms. (Is this because church members frequently socialise together?) The Mayor's call for everyone to stay at home seems to make sense.


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

I dont know, they rewrote the article since I posted it so I still need to look into that, its news to me.

Certainly alert levels are not always free of politics and economics, although sometimes they avoid the highest level because they want to hold that in reserve in case the situation gets much worse. Otherwise they run out of mechanisms to raise fresh alarm/heightened responses.


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

sihhi said:


> The organisation might be the "Medical Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran" the main professional organisation for doctors.
> Radio Farda is Radio Liberty's Persian service funded by the US in the same way that BBC World Service Persian is funded by Britain.
> 
> There are other non-government journalist saying similar things I believe.
> ...



Now she describes him as a reformist politician.



As for what he actually said, it is rather similar to what she claims, although emphasis is a bit different so I will continue not to take her words at face value. Machine translation of farsi is not terrible, but like some other languages I mentioned recently, it can really mess up numbers, so dont take things like number or age of Iranian coronavirus cases, or dates, at face value if you get them via machine translation.


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

If anyone requires some actual science to refute some conspiracy theories, could do a lot worse than this (click the tweet to get the full thread):



I wont call the conspiracies batshit because actually bat shit in this context is more feasible than the theories!


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

Its weeks like this one that make me susceptible to prematurely declaring a pandemic. Mostly because I become less sure how premature this would actually be now. Probably a little, but I'm not sure what difference it even makes given that this eventuality is widely expected.



> In Iran the outbreak is centred on the holy city of Qom, south of the capital Tehran, but health ministry official Minou Mohrez said the virus may already have spread to "all cities in Iran".
> 
> The case in Lebanon was a 45-year-old woman who had travelled from Qom, Lebanese Health Minister Hassan Hamad said.











						Coronavirus: South Korea 'emergency' measures as infections increase
					

Two cities are declared "special care zones", as 100 new cases and a second death are confirmed.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

On that note, I see that a 20th Feb BBC general article on what Coronavirus is (that is too oversimplified in places for my tastes) chose to include this tweet from Feb 6th. I dont know if they've drawn attention to this sort of tweet before, if not then I am tempted to file it under 'starting to prepare people for this eventuality'.











						Covid symptoms: What are they and how do I protect myself?
					

A new cough, fever and change in smell or taste are the key symptoms of coronavirus.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## weltweit (Feb 21, 2020)

elbows you seem to have taken a slightly more pessimistic tone in your recent posts. If that is true then I tend to agree. I have been watching the slow spread and wondering where the next significant outbreak is going to be, because I think it is a when not an if question.


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

weltweit said:


> elbows you seem to have taken a slightly more pessimistic tone in your recent posts. If that is true then I tend to agree. I have been watching the slow spread and wondering where the next significant outbreak is going to be, because I think it is a when not an if question.



Well the last 8 days featured news from various countries which were the sort of thing I was always going to look for and use as pandemic indicators. But these were still early and incomplete indicators, so I'm not quite there yet, but yes I am quite a bit closer.

I've not been optimistic about stopping the spread since this thread first began. Most of my ongoing optimism relates to things like mild disease in many cases, what the eventual fatality rates will be and stuff like that. Not that I have a universally rosy picture in my mind on that front either, but there is no way I would discuss worst case scenarios of these aspects because that would be inappropriate fear mongering that I would only get into if evidence pointed consistently in that direction.


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

And although I entered that mode about 8 days ago, via Japan, its the last 24 hours that have further solidified my position. Not that I am reaching these conclusions on my own, eg:


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 21, 2020)

Yep, and Iran had reported no cases up until yesterday, then suddenly a grand total of 2 (both of which were deaths!) and now grudging 5 (of which 4 have apparently died). Clearly massive under reporting and only admitting to cases they can no longer hide because the people have died. And how many other countries are wilfully under reporting to protect the tourist trade?  My neighbours just flew off to Thailand for two weeks. Only 35 cases there apparently....

Still zero in Indonesia (believe that one?) nothing in many other countries, if you trust the numbers...


----------



## sihhi (Feb 21, 2020)

elbows said:


> And although I entered that mode about 8 days ago, via Japan, its the last 24 hours that have further solidified my position. Not that I am reaching these conclusions on my own, eg:




What's your take home message for what we should be doing?


Two points from Singapore with 4 in ICU situation critical









						COVID-19 in Singapore—Experience and Critical Issues That Require Attention and Action
					

This Viewpoint discusses public health measures implemented in Singapore to manage potential COVID-19 infection based on the country’s experience with SARS in 2003 and reviews critical information gaps necessary to help manage the outbreak, such as viral shedding patterns and optimal timing of...




					jamanetwork.com
				




Confirmed cases in Singapore have been observed to have *higher viral loads* as suggested by lower RT-PCR cycle threshold values (the lower the threshold level the greater the amount of target nucleic acid in the in the samples) *during the early part of illness*, which progressively decrease over time. However, there is a need for further evidence as to whether this corresponds with the degree of infectivity. Another important question is whether infected children and adolescents, who appear to have relatively mild clinical manifestations, are infectious and contribute significantly to spread.

Although published reports to date 4,7 have identified preexisting chronic noncommunicable diseases as being a risk factor for clinical deterioration, the *experience to date in Singapore is that patients without significant comorbid conditions can also develop severe illness*.


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Yep, and Iran had reported no cases up until yesterday, then suddenly a grand total of 2 (both of which were deaths!) and now grudging 5 (of which 4 have apparently died). Clearly massive under reporting and only admitting to cases they can no longer hide because the people have died. And how many other countries are wilfully under reporting to protect the tourist trade?  My neighbours just flew off to Thailand for two weeks. Only 35 cases there apparently....
> 
> Still zero in Indonesia (believe that one?) nothing in many other countries, if you trust the numbers...



Not just wilful underreporting, it was always expected that there would be extreme problems detecting majority of cases.

And weeks of delay between reality and us getting a picture of that reality is also to be expected everywhere, regardless of politics. Politics and certain regimes can make this much worse, but even without such stuff, picture always likely to lag well behind. 

Indeed a big part of the reason I said that it would likely take February for me to get a sense of what was going on and whether this was a pandemic, is the inevitable delays in cases showing up and testing positive. Infections that were being seeded around the world in January have often not shows up till this last week, and probably many outbreaks have since happened that have not been detected yet. Current forms of broader surveillance may not pick some of these up until someone from a particular cluster becomes more seriously ill, that will be one of the sources of delay at the moment.

On that note, latest version of a study we have spoken of before is out:



> Consistent with similar analyses [3], we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, potentially leaving sources of human-to- human transmission unchecked (63% and 73% undetected based on comparisons with Singapore only and with Singapore, Finland, Nepal, Belgium, Sweden, India, Sri Lanka, and Canada, respectively). Undoubtedly, the exported cases vary in the severity of their clinical symptoms, making some cases more difficult to detect than others. However, some countries have detected significantly fewer than would have been expected based on the volume of flight passengers arriving from Wuhan City, China.





			https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College---COVID-19---Relative-Sensitivity-International-Cases.pdf
		


The alarming news from countries like Iran and South Korea mostly came too late to feature in that version of the report.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 21, 2020)

A person in Canada has tested positive and they had recently travelled from Iran. This only adds to the idea that the cat is out of the bag in Iran.


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

sihhi said:


> What's your take home message for what we should be doing?



I have no particular wisdom on this.

Try to come to terms with the situation, follow the boring advice about hygiene etc, dont spend too much time every day thinking and reading about the topic if it causes too much mental anguish. Consider the possibility that if you have any travel and event plans for the coming months, they might be disrupted. Dont get carried away hoarding certain items, no panic buying or shelf stripping, but maybe consider slightly increasing the amount of spare supplies of certain things you keep at home.


----------



## Idris2002 (Feb 21, 2020)

This writer makes a case for the Wuhan quarantine being a success. 









						Once widely criticized, the Wuhan quarantine bought the world time to prepare for Covid-19
					

Early evidence is causing some public health experts to reconsider their initial scathing criticism of quarantines and travel restrictions intended to combat the novel coronavirus.




					www.statnews.com
				




I'll wait and see what other people have to say first though.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 21, 2020)

Personally I think it is very likely there has been considerable spread of the virus in other local Asian countries. I have thought that ever since our so called super spreader returned with it from Singapore.

It seemed both unlucky for him to have caught it there in the first place (an exhibition I believe) but also unlikely that he was the only one to have caught it there and then.


----------



## andysays (Feb 21, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> A person in Canada has tested positive and they had recently travelled from Iran. This only adds to the idea that the cat is out of the bag in Iran.


There's also a woman in Lebanon who had recently returned from Iran.

WHO saying they're concerned about number of cases with no clear link to existing cases.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 21, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Personally I think it is very likely there has been considerable spread of the virus in other local Asian countries. I have thought that ever since our so called super spreader returned with it from Singapore.
> 
> It seemed both unlucky for him to have caught it there in the first place (an exhibition I believe) but also unlikely that he was the only one to have caught it there and then.



It was a business conference, attended by several Chinese nationals, so not that surprising he caught it.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 21, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> It was a business conference, attended by several Chinese nationals, so not that surprising he caught it.


Indeed, but if he caught it there and then, so likely did many others.


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

Idris2002 said:


> This writer makes a case for the Wuhan quarantine being a success.



Hmmm, sort of. The article covers some other possibilities too, not all of the quotes in it are optimistic, although plenty are, and the article certainly ends on that note.

But success is mostly described in that article as having bought the world a few weeks extra preparation time. The stuff about it limiting the eventual size of the outbreak is more speculative. And in many avenues of detail it is simply too early to tell.

Its certainly true that human responses to outbreaks, that alter human behaviour on a large scale, are expected to have an effect on the reproductive rate of the virus, compared to the rate it was achieving before humans noticed and responded to the outbreak. And the response all over China has been massive and well beyond what we normally get to see in terms of human behavioural changes. eg look for stories about traffic levels in places like Beijing.

I expect this stuff to be studied for a long time to come, once subsequent chapters of the story are known.

Still not clear to what extent dramatic measures will be attempted everywhere else, some might well happen even if overall containment is given up on, and these will offer their own opportunities to see if any of this stuff works.

By the way, that writer doesnt seem to be very well regarded in some circles due to some prior form. Including unimpressed science writers with historical criticisms (not about this new article) such as "She's got a tendency to go charging off into fluff and that's what's happened here."









						Sharon Begley - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

elbows said:


> But success is mostly described in that article as having bought the world a few weeks extra preparation time.



Ahh I should have pointed out that this is also another sign - increasingly public health officials are starting to reframe containment efforts as having been something that bought a bit of time. This takes over from a sentiment that, once upon a time, included the hope that it would prevent a pandemic.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention appears to have changed its mood music today (at least in its conference call with the press). So my prediction that I would not be too far out on a limb whenever I started to use the word pandemic seems to have been right.



> U.S. health officials are preparing for the COVID-19 coronavirus, which has killed at least 2,249 people and sickened more than 76,700 worldwide, to become a pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.





> “We’re not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but it’s very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call. “Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the U.S. This buys us more time to prepare communities for more cases and possibly sustained spread.”



As for the subject of whether we will continue to see quite dramatic measures taken beyond China to contain the spread, even after the idea initial containment is gone, there are some signs of that from them too:



> Messonnier pointed to China, where schools and businesses have been shuttered for weeks to contain the outbreak there, saying the U.S. may eventually need to do the same.
> 
> “The day may come where we may need to implement such measures in this country,” she said.











						CDC prepares for possibility coronavirus becomes a pandemic and businesses, schools need to be closed
					

The CDC pointed to China, where schools and businesses have been closed to contain the outbreak, saying the U.S. may need to do the same.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

Not had time to look at Italy today, but news appeared to get worse from there during the day:



> An outbreak of coronavirus in northern Italy worsened on Friday, with officials announcing 14 confirmed cases in Lombardy, while two cases were reported in the adjacent region of Veneto.
> Just hours after revealing that six people had come down with the virus in the first known cases of local transmission in Italy, officials said a further eight had tested positive for the disease, including five health workers.











						Coronavirus outbreak grows in northern Italy, 16 cases reported in one day
					

An outbreak of coronavirus in northern Italy worsened on Friday, with officials announcing 14 confirmed cases in the wealthy region of Lombardy, while two cases were reported in the adjacent region of Veneto.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

As expected the WHO have changed their emphasis and language slightly but still desire wiggle room and an avenue of hope.









						Coronavirus: 'Narrowing window' to contain outbreak, WHO says
					

The World Health Organization says the rise of new cases with no clear link to China is a concern.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> Dr Tedros said the number of coronavirus cases outside China was "relatively small" but the pattern of infection was worrying.
> 
> "We are concerned about the number of cases with no clear epidemiological link, such as travel history to or contact with a confirmed case," he said.
> 
> The new deaths and infections in Iran were "very concerning", he said.





> But he insisted that the measures China and other countries had put in place meant there was still a "fighting chance" of stopping further spread and called on countries to put more resources into preparing for possible outbreaks.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 21, 2020)

I haven't been keeping up, had other issues, but deaths in Iran are certainly of concern, usually you might expect many more mild cases for every death. I suspect the Iranian authorities are either lying or not in control.


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I haven't been keeping up, had other issues, but deaths in Iran are certainly of concern, usually you might expect many more mild cases for every death. I suspect the Iranian authorities are either lying or not in control.



Yes, a whole bunch of aspects of what we know in regards Iran point to a substantial outbreak. And announcing the first two cases once they are deceased gives some clues about timing. Quite how long they sat on info I cannot say, because just like with China there is the period when the disease would not be detected but would be doing its thing, and then the period where they realised this but then sat on the info. I dont know when they gained a proper testing capability either.

But its probably the international cases that are linked with Iran that provided the clearest alarm that the outbreak there is probably substantial. It might even have something to do with when Iran decided to reveal they had cases.



> “I think people are missing the importance of a case like the Canadian traveler to Iran,” he said, referring to a case reported by health officials in British Columbia on Thursday. “This tells us that there has to be a much larger number of people infected in Iran and we’re literally just detecting the tip of the iceberg.”
> 
> Even Iranian health officials acknowledged that likelihood. “It’s possible that it exists in all cities in Iran,” health ministry official Minou Mohrez said, according to the official IRNA news agency.



From The coronavirus is spreading outside China, narrowing hope to eliminate it

Note with that last comment from the health ministry, they have gone from not acknowledging any cases, to being rather open indeed about the possible current state of play. That doesnt mean that I think all future info from them will be timely and transparent, just that they are not currently pretending that its an isolated outbreak that they are in control of.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 21, 2020)

elbows said:


> As expected the WHO have changed their emphasis and language slightly but still desire wiggle room and an avenue of hope.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That is fucking grim to read.

Ive been in bed most of the day with heavy cold, no energy, exhausted etc, can’t imagine what contracting this Coronavirus would be like, not to mention the concern for my parents and other older family members.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 21, 2020)

_Messonnier pointed to China, where schools and businesses have been shuttered for weeks to contain the outbreak there, saying the U.S. may eventually need to do the same.

“The day may come where we may need to implement such measures in this country,” she said._

I don't mind who I offend but I'll never understand for the life of me why there was no complete lock down on flights from China when Wuhan was quarantined. In controlling a pandemic there has to be a clear zone which is clear where production of essentials such as masks and protective equipment can continue unhindered, slowing the spread should have been the number priority. I feel the health of the world has been sacrificed on the altar of profits.

Everything is just reactive, the virus just is vectored from place to place with no barrier. 
Basically all around the world, insufficient testing until person shows up at a hospital, normalcy bias operates (probably influenza, not been to Asia) healthcare workers are infected and pass on to other patients before original person is confirmed as carrier, rinse and repeat.
The Italian case has a Unilever employee returning from China, then having a slight fever but not staying home and continuing to go around and meet people.

The man in the street in this BBC report has_ 'I am worried Daegu will become the second Wuhan'

Many people in South Korea are wearing masks on a daily basis.

Hand sanitizers have been placed at public transport stops and building entrances.

Warning government signs are everywhere. They say: "Three ways to prevent further infection: wear a mask at all times; wash your hands properly with soap for more than 30 seconds; and cover yourself when coughing."_


----------



## sihhi (Feb 21, 2020)

Former head of the Pasteur Institute, Korea says

_A complete travel ban either by air or sea would have been the best option for the country, but unfortunately it was trumped by neighborly diplomacy, and goes to show that the Moon administration does not seem too concerned with the scale of this outbreak; I suspect they are getting "reassurances" from the Chinese authorities that they are doing all they can to curb this outbreak, but doubt very much their reassurances._


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

Well some things are well beyond practical human control.

The horse had already bolted before the Wuhan lockdown. You cannot lockdown entire countries 100% even if the political will was there.

It takes good luck, good timing, right response, and favourable characteristics of the virus in order to prevent pandemics. I would suggest that characteristics of the virus (such as how easily and silently it spreads) are the biggest factors, and humanity is often mostly a passenger in these situations. Humans dont generally prevent respiratory influenza-like pandemics from happening, if the virus has the right characteristics then we cant even observe the outbreaks happening in anything close to realtime, and the lag makes the mission impossible.

The best opportunities to really reduce pandemic risk will involve areas where animals and humans intermingle, and avoiding initial animal->human transmission and subsequent local outbreak in the first place. Thats where we as a species could have the most control over our fate, and where complaints about economic and other interests spoiling things can be most suitably directed.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 21, 2020)

I was talking to a chap who buys an item from China .. he said his supplier planned to update them on possible deliveries at the end of February.

The factory is in the south of China and I don't think they have permission to attempt to restart production yet.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 21, 2020)

two sheds said:


> How long before fatalism sets in and people start holding chicken-pox-style parties so they get the infections over with?


Very 2001AD


----------



## elbows (Feb 21, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Very 2001AD



If my memory is vaguely working, I believe the media in some countries loved telling stories about H1N1 2009 swine flu parties, but I'm not sure how much such parties actually happened back then.

That rationale for such parties is much diminished for a whole range of diseases, because the idea makes sense if its something you are only likely to suffer from once, if it is better to have it when young, and if other alternatives such as vaccine are not available.

Coronaviruses do not seem like a good fit for this at all. Immunity is not really expected to last for a start.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 21, 2020)

I know plenty of people for whom the virus could be the end, people with COPD for example. I myself am an ex smoker who still vapes, I wouldn't chose to play Russian roulette with this virus.


----------



## ATOMIC SUPLEX (Feb 21, 2020)

My wife's cousin reports that face masks are now sold out across Japan.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 21, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I know plenty of people for whom the virus could be the end, people with COPD for example. I myself am an ex smoker who still vapes, I wouldn't chose to play Russian roulette with this virus.


This. COPD would be impossible. Lots of conditions it would bring on awful complications.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 21, 2020)

Some areas in northern Italy are closing public spaces...










						Northern Italy public spaces closed due to coronavirus
					

Number diagnosed virus rises to 14, says health minister  - Anadolu Agency




					www.aa.com.tr


----------



## TopCat (Feb 21, 2020)

TopCat said:


> This. COPD would be impossible. Lots of conditions it would bring on awful complications.


Asthma for instance.


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

Lots of new South Korean cases, a big chunk of which involve the hospital outbreak.



> South Korea reported 142 new cases of the new coronavirus on Saturday, the largest spike in a single day, bringing the total number of infections in the nation to 346.
> 
> Of the 142 new cases, 92 are related to Daenam Hospital in Cheongdo, where South Korea's first fatality occurred, the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) said.











						Korea's virus cases surge to 433 on church services, cluster outbreak at hospital
					

South Korea reported 229 new cases of the new coronavirus on Saturday, the largest spike in a single day since its first outbreak in late January, bringing the total number of infections in the nation to 433.  The number of COVID-19 infections here has soared in the past few days, with most...



					www.koreaherald.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 22, 2020)

elbows mentioned in one post that an Israeli, from the cruise ship, who tested negative in Japan, had tested positive (provisionally) on her return, she has now been confirmed as infected from lab test results.

And, she's not the only one...



> Several other people from around the world who tested negative for the virus in Japan have been found to be carrying the disease after arriving in their home countries. At least four people flown to the US and another two Australians let off the ship have been found to have the virus, raising questions about Japan’s policy of allowing evacuees to return home after testing negative.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

It makes sense for me that at one point you can truly be free clear of the virus, then you come into contact with someone else who has it, some viral material is transmitted to you, at this stage you would still test negative but you're doomed to get it.

Then you may go through your incubation stage, which may at the early phase not trigger the test until finally when you have symptoms at which time tests definitely come back positive.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 22, 2020)

Since being kept on board the cruise liner in the port of Yokohama, a total of *634* passengers and crew have been infected, accounting for more than half of all the confirmed coronavirus cases outside of China.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 22, 2020)

elbows said:


> If my memory is vaguely working, I believe the media in some countries loved telling stories about H1N1 2009 swine flu parties, but I'm not sure how much such parties actually happened back then.
> 
> That rationale for such parties is much diminished for a whole range of diseases, because the idea makes sense if its something you are only likely to suffer from once, if it is better to have it when young, and if other alternatives such as vaccine are not available.
> 
> Coronaviruses do not seem like a good fit for this at all. Immunity is not really expected to last for a start.


Pneumonia aint to be sneezed at


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 22, 2020)

Is the Coronavirus outbreak heading towards the unthinkable scenario?

_This scenario is very short. The virus spreads globally and also mutates, with its transmissibility increasing and its lethality increasing too. The numbers infected would skyrocket, as would casualties. We could be looking at a global pandemic, and at scenarios more akin to dystopian Hollywood films than the realms of economic analysis. Let’s all pray it does not come to pass and just remains a very fat tail risk._









						Coronavirus: Outbreak of uncertainty
					

We outline four scenarios in which the coronavirus outbreak becomes increasingly severe and discuss the implications for China and the world economy.




					economics.rabobank.com


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Is the Coronavirus outbreak heading towards the unthinkable scenario?
> 
> _This scenario is very short. The virus spreads globally and also mutates, with its transmissibility increasing and its lethality increasing too. The numbers infected would skyrocket, as would casualties. We could be looking at a global pandemic, and at scenarios more akin to dystopian Hollywood films than the realms of economic analysis. Let’s all pray it does not come to pass and just remains a very fat tail risk._
> 
> ...



Its not helpful to add wild speculation to this mix.


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

I'll stick the the virus thats actually out there, not a load of hyped up mutation bullshit. Viruses mutate, thats what they do, but this happens all the time without leading to the sort of picture the media like to paint.

It is incredibly stupid of them to only place global pandemic under their 'the unthinkable scenario', a scenario that involves mutation and increased transmissibility. In fact it is rather unlikely that either of those things need to change from their current level in order for this to become a pandemic.

I have a low opinion of the wisdom of markets, and much of the analysis by economists. Market response to the coronavirus so far has been largely detached from reality, with weeks of entirely inappropriate optimism (or artificial propping up) . There are some sensible aspects buried in that article, but they are ruined by the arbitrary and crass set of scenarios they came up with. Ditch 'the unthinkable' scenario, and the hyperbole that goes with it, and roll the whole pandemic thing into their 'the ugly' scenario, which really already has a lot of pandemic things baked into it in everything but name, and the article is not quite so bad.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 22, 2020)

2 dead in Italy: Second coronavirus death sparks fears, lockdown in Italian towns


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 22, 2020)

I was silently cursing some twat in the lift in Marks who coughed.  Had to hold my breath for two floors until I could escape.  



TopCat said:


> Pneumonia aint to be sneezed at


Indeed.  I'm glad I've had the pneumonia vaccine which should offer a bit of protection.


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

It offers no protection against this coronavirus, only against the possibility of having another particular infection at the same time.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 22, 2020)

elbows said:


> It offers no protection against this coronavirus, only against the possibility of having another particular infection at the same time.


Yes, but it provides some protection for other pneumonia causing agents which is always a good thing.  I've had chest infections before which were grim, so pneumonia doesn't sound like fun.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 22, 2020)

elbows said:


> I'll stick the the virus thats actually out there, not a load of hyped up mutation bullshit. Viruses mutate, thats what they do, but this happens all the time without leading to the sort of picture the media like to paint.
> 
> It is incredibly stupid of them to only place global pandemic under their 'the unthinkable scenario', a scenario that involves mutation and increased transmissibility. In fact it is rather unlikely that either of those things need to change from their current level in order for this to become a pandemic.
> 
> I have a low opinion of the wisdom of markets, and much of the analysis by economists. Market response to the coronavirus so far has been largely detached from reality, with weeks of entirely inappropriate optimism (or artificial propping up) . There are some sensible aspects buried in that article, but they are ruined by the arbitrary and crass set of scenarios they came up with. Ditch 'the unthinkable' scenario, and the hyperbole that goes with it, and roll the whole pandemic thing into their 'the ugly' scenario, which really already has a lot of pandemic things baked into it in everything but name, and the article is not quite so bad.



The ‘unthinkable’ is terrifying to envision.

Im already hearing advice (social media) to stock up on canned goods and water, just in case.


----------



## pesh (Feb 22, 2020)

fill the bath with petrol as well


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> The ‘unthinkable’ is terrifying to envision.
> 
> Im already hearing advice (social media) to stock up on canned goods and water, just in case.


Canned goods perhaps, but why water?


----------



## TopCat (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> The ‘unthinkable’ is terrifying to envision.
> 
> Im already hearing advice (social media) to stock up on canned goods and water, just in case.


Our systems are quite fragile.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Canned goods perhaps, but why water?



Yeah, can’t do any harm I suppose.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> The ‘unthinkable’ is terrifying to envision.
> 
> Im already hearing advice (social media) to stock up on canned goods and water, just in case.



Yeah, taking advice from idiots on social media is always a great idea, did you stock up before brexit?


----------



## TopCat (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Canned goods perhaps, but why water?


You awaken after a long fever, stagger downstairs to find the tap is dry. All you have is a bottle of Talisker.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 22, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Yeah, taking advice from idiots on social media is always a great idea, did you stock up before brexit?


I bought water purification tablets. Plus zombie knife


----------



## LDC (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> The ‘unthinkable’ is terrifying to envision.
> 
> Im already hearing advice (social media) to stock up on canned goods and water, just in case.



Always good to pay close attention to the advice of the experts in reputable journals your slightly odd friends on social media about how to respond to this in a measured and sensible way.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 22, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Yeah, taking advice from idiots on social media is always a great idea, did you stock up before brexit?



Lol, I get your point, but I’m getting the impression that this (Coronavirus) is spreading faster than anticipated and with China being central to the global economy, it may well be prudent to take some precautions.


----------



## LDC (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Lol, I get your point, but I’m getting the impression that this (Coronavirus) is spreading faster than anticipated and with China being central to the global economy, it may well be prudent to take some precautions.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Lol, I get your point, but I’m getting the impression that this (Coronavirus) is spreading faster than anticipated and with China being central to the global economy, it may well be prudent to take some precautions.


Marty1 it is going to be people who meet a lot of people that will catch it first so you are in the line of fire.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 22, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> View attachment 199469





Mention of a few canned goods and water to an underground survival bunker in a few short posts!


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Lol, I get your point, but I’m getting the impression that this (Coronavirus) is spreading faster than anticipated and with China being central to the global economy, it may well be prudent to take some precautions.


indeed so, put a condom over your head


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 22, 2020)

If only TobyJug was still here to advise us.


----------



## Tankus (Feb 22, 2020)

unless its made in china


----------



## two sheds (Feb 22, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> If only TobyJug was still here to advise us.



I actually had TobyJug pointed out to me in a shop one time  

/claim to fame


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 22, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I actually had TobyJug pointed out to me in a shop one time



Good job it was in a shop & not on a boat.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 22, 2020)

It was in a shop selling air rifles


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

It is entirely understandable that some people on social media started going on about that sort of thing now.

Yesterday the US CDC started going on about pandemic possibilities, and have recently mentioned updating their existing flu-based pandemic plans in case they need to apply them to Covid-19.

That, combined with other indicators this week, is expected to trigger this sort of thinking. Indeed I was asked a question yesterday where part of my response was this:



elbows said:


> Dont get carried away hoarding certain items, no panic buying or shelf stripping, but maybe consider slightly increasing the amount of spare supplies of certain things you keep at home.



And that sort of thing is a feature of the sort of pandemic advice that the USA has given to its citizens in the past.

I havent looked for any updated Covid-19 pandemic advice the US may have published yet, I'm assuming its still slightly too soon, but here is an example from their 'Get your household ready for pandemic flu' guide from April 2017.



> Plan to have extra supplies of important items on hand. For example, keep on hand extra supplies like soap, hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol, tissues, and disposable facemasks. If you or your household members have a chronic condition and regularly take prescription drugs, talk to your health care provider, pharmacist, and insurance provider about keeping an emergency supply of medications at home. These supplies can always be used for a different emergency and then restocked.



From page 8 of https://www.cdc.gov/nonpharmaceutical-interventions/pdf/gr-pan-flu-ind-house.pdf

Of course this advice is not quite the same as hoarding all manner of things like water. But such messages and planning have long been given a higher profile in the USA, and probably some other countries, than has tended to be the case in the UK.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 22, 2020)

elbows said:


> It is entirely understandable that some people on social media started going on about that sort of thing now.
> 
> Yesterday the US CDC started going on about pandemic possibilities, and have recently mentioned updating their existing flu-based pandemic plans in case they need to apply them to Covid-19.
> 
> ...



I shall certainly add to my  at least 60% alcohol supplies


----------



## sihhi (Feb 22, 2020)

One young man from population 6 million Jingzhou Hubei









						Coronavirus survivor recounts fear, confusion - France 24
					

Coronavirus survivor recounts fear, confusion




					www.france24.com


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 22, 2020)

TopCat said:


> You awaken after a long fever, stagger downstairs to find the tap is dry. All you have is a bottle of Talisker.



Payday next week. Definitely going to get a fat bottle of single malt.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 22, 2020)

+60% is what's recommended


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Yeah, can’t do any harm I suppose.



Be aware that however shit the Government is, there are plans in place to protect Critical National Infrastructure (CNI). These plans are tested to assure a minimum level of availability of these services to be maintained during worse incidents than this mild (for 80%+ of those infected) disease. In addition, the plans also include recovery of these services within an acceptable timeframe, if disrupted. Water is listed as part of the CNI. There may be some reduction/disruption in the realistic worse case scenario of this service but it will be resumed as a priority. Be assured this work has little to do with competence of the wankers at Downing Street.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 22, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Be aware that however shit the Government is, there are wider plans in place to protect Critical National Infrastructure (CNI). These plans are tested to assure a minimum level of availability of these services can be maintained during worse incidents than this mild (for 80%+ of those infected) disease. In addition, the plans also include recovering these services within an acceptable timeframe if disrupted. Water is listed as CNI as while there maybe some reduction/disruption in the realistic worse case scenario this service will be resumed as a priority. This has little to do with the wankers at Downing Street.


protect it for who?


----------



## Cid (Feb 22, 2020)

In the coronazombie future, people will think of ‘wear a mask’ as we think of ‘duck and cover’.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 22, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> protect it for who?



The ruling class will be very aware that the continued protection of their capital by the state relies on a minimal level of services for the population. Plus major incident planning is a wide responsibility for various section of those in the defined services.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 22, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> The ruling class will be very aware that the continued protection of their capital by the state relies on a minimal level of services for the population. Plus major incident planning is a wide responsibility for various section of those in the defined services.


yeh - the population will receive a minimal level of service.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 22, 2020)

Sensible, proportionate preparation would be wise. Don’t skint yourself by wildly buying all the things but maybe adding non-perishables that youll use anyway to your cupboards will not cause harm.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 22, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> yeh - the population will receive a minimal level of service.



It’s worth reiterating that although major incident plans are ultimately signed off by senior management they are created by mainly by normal people who have decency.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Marty1 it is going to be people who meet a lot of people that will catch it first so you are in the line of fire.



Between 150 - 200 people per day.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Between 150 - 200 people per day.


Yes and your machine on which you get customers to sign for delivery will be a primary vector of contamination.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 22, 2020)

two sheds said:


> +60% is what's recommended


Cask strength


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes and your machine on which you get customers to sign for delivery will be a primary vector of contamination.



Yup, I doubt it’s anti-bacterial screen protector will be of much use either.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Yup, I doubt it’s anti-bacterial screen protector will be of much use either.


No, you'd want an anti-viral screen protector to help here.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

I suppose if people are going to stock up they're going to buy buy canned foods milk face masks firewood and the like. Before the flood I bought extra milk, a tactic that backfired because the electric went and the fridge stopped working.


----------



## chilango (Feb 22, 2020)

Driving down the M40 earlier we saw the Coronavirus convoy. Loads of police motorbike outriders, a couple of ambulances and several coaches full of people in biohazard suits.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

chilango said:


> Driving down the M40 earlier we saw the Coronavirus convoy. Loads of police motorbike outriders, a couple of ambulances and several coaches full of people in biohazard suits.


Sounds like the emergency workers outnumbered the patients?


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I suppose if people are going to stock up they're going to buy buy canned foods milk face masks firewood and the like. Before the flood I bought extra milk, a tactic that backfired because the electric went and the fridge stopped working.


You want UHT milk if you're prepping


----------



## chilango (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Sounds like the emergency workers outnumbered the patients?



I think the patients were in full biohaz suits too.


----------



## chilango (Feb 22, 2020)

chilango said:


> I think the patients were in full biohaz suits too.



BBC article.








						Coronavirus: Evacuated Britons arrive at quarantine hospital
					

UK nationals evacuated from a cruise ship arrive at Arrowe Park, where they will spend the next 14 days.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




When we saw them all the passengers on the coaches appeared to be masked and suited.

There a LOT of police bikes.

Also is the M40 not a strange route to take from Wiltshire to the Wirral? Surely M5 then M6?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 22, 2020)

Why a convey of coaches, when they could all fit on one?


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

chilango said:


> ..
> Also is the M40 not a strange route to take from Wiltshire to the Wirral? Surely M5 then M6?


Yes I wondered about the M40 also.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 22, 2020)

elbows said:


> It is entirely understandable that some people on social media started going on about that sort of thing now.
> 
> Yesterday the US CDC started going on about pandemic possibilities, and have recently mentioned updating their existing flu-based pandemic plans in case they need to apply them to Covid-19.
> 
> ...



Actually thanks for that - it's really useful. I've just been a bit concerned because I don't go anywhere (retired now, haven't got a car so get milk and veg and things delivered, not that bothered about meeting people) and yet I've picked up a cold for no apparent reason. Has to be when I went to the dentist a few days ago.

Not really relevant yet but I shall bear it in mind :taps nose:



Fez909 said:


> You want UHT milk if you're prepping
> 
> View attachment 199477



Don't be silly


----------



## TopCat (Feb 22, 2020)

chilango said:


> Driving down the M40 earlier we saw the Coronavirus convoy. Loads of police motorbike outriders, a couple of ambulances and several coaches full of people in biohazard suits.


That must have been some sight.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

elbows and others, just wondering about a time / duration for this virus. From what I can gather the virus could still be infecting people in years rather than months.

Just thinking about Hubei for a moment, how long do you think it could be active there?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> elbows and others, just wondering about a time / duration for this virus. From what I can gather the virus could still be infecting people in years rather than months.
> 
> Just thinking about Hubei for a moment, how long do you think it could be active there?


----------



## chilango (Feb 22, 2020)

TopCat said:


> That must have been some sight.



Yep.

First noticed a whole bunch of police bikes hanging around at the services. Then more and more appeared on the Northbound side and then the convoy.

It was a scary sight.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

cupid_stunt there must be other epidemics from which we might gather insight.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> cupid_stunt there must be other epidemics from which we might gather insight.



I don't think so, this is totally different to both SARS & MERS, the previous two death threatening variants of a coronavirus, so what can it be compared with?


----------



## Supine (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> cupid_stunt there must be other epidemics from which we might gather insight.



SARS has essentially disappeared but MERS has occasional outbreaks still. It'll depend on the transmissibility and morbidity rates among other things so basically time will tell. 

If it stays it'll go out of fashion in the media and just become one of the many things in life that can be caught and makes us ill.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> I don't think so, this is totally different to both SARS & MERS, the previous two death threatening variants of a coronavirus, so what can it be compared with?


I don't know hence my question. But wouldn't those hint at likely durations?



Supine said:


> SARS has essentially disappeared but MERS has occasional outbreaks still. It'll depend on the transmissibility and morbidity rates among other things so basically time will tell.
> 
> If it stays it'll go out of fashion in the media and just become one of the many things in life that can be caught and makes us ill.


I do think it will still be part of the environment in at least a years time.

But then I suppose I am not factoring in in all the work various labs are doing to try to find antidotes and vaccines. Perhaps the situation could be changed significantly in the next six months. Let's hope so.


----------



## baldrick (Feb 22, 2020)

I don't have anything to add really but I'm finding this thread really useful so thank you elbows and the rest of you for collating it all. It's extremely helpful, useful insights but not too much hysteria


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> elbows and others, just wondering about a time / duration for this virus. From what I can gather the virus could still be infecting people in years rather than months.
> 
> Just thinking about Hubei for a moment, how long do you think it could be active there?



I expect people that study this stuff and do it for a job will currently be faced with a mix of unknowns but also some expectations/assumptions about what might happen.

In terms of things they will be more sure about, I believe there are some basic rules about when epidemics in a particular location ultimately have to burn out. The timing is influenced by the human response, but even without an effective human response, the outbreak is limited by eventually running out of sufficient quantity of new victims (with no immunity) in that location. That doesnt necessarily mean a reduction to zero of new infections and cases, but at least a reduction down to background levels, where cases only pop up sporadically and arent really on the radar.

Some of that stuff also relates to theories about why some diseases are with us on a seasonal basis. A disease emerges where there is little or no immunity in the population, leading to widespread disease and spread. At this stage the seasonal factors may not be enough to significantly hamper the virus (eg UK first H1N1 pandemic wave, July 2009). Eventually the pool of people with little or no immunity is reduced to the point that the virus can no longer sustain itself in the form of large outbreaks, and it retreats to the margins. Gradually the pool of potential victims starts to grow again, for reasons such as virus evolution and also individuals natural immunity against that virus decreasing for other, less well understood reasons. At this stage, seasonal factors can make the difference between the virus remaining in the background or getting a significant foothold again, in the form of normal seasonal outbreaks or larger epidemics.

We still dont know what this pandemic will be like, or whether this virus will then become a seasonal one after the pandemic is over. Much of the speculation will come from what we think happens with other coronaviruses that follow these seasonal patterns. Or other things like flu. But its not like things like pandemic waves are easy to predict with better understood viruses like influenza. eg I believe there was a bit of a cockup with H1N1 swine flu pandemic in regards to some people downplaying the prospect of a third wave, but then one happened in various countries. This probably didnt make much difference in that case because thankfully as pandemics go, the 2009 one lacked the features that would be expected to overwhelm healthcare facilities. But it was a warning, including to experts, not to sound too certain when predicting things.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 22, 2020)

baldrick said:


> I don't have anything to add really but I'm finding this thread really useful so thank you elbows and the rest of you for collating it all. It's extremely helpful, useful insights but not too much hysteria



Want more hysteria


----------



## Supine (Feb 22, 2020)

This shit just got serious - my local Chinese takeaway is closed as the family got back from a holiday in China. They’re fine but self isolating to be on the safe side.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I don't know hence my question.



Nobody knows.



> But wouldn't those hint at likely durations?



I doubt it, because SARS was different to MERS, and both are different to CoVid-19. It's probably going to some months before the experts can start making proper predictions about how this may or may not spread, and if it's likely to die out or just become something we have to put up with over the coming years.


----------



## Supine (Feb 22, 2020)

So elbows is calling a pandemic. Let's wait for WHO / CDC / EMA etc to make the call before stating this as fact...


----------



## two sheds (Feb 22, 2020)

Supine said:


> So elbows is calling a pandemic. Let's wait for WHO / CDC / EMA etc to make the call before stating this as fact...



Surely they take their call from him


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 22, 2020)

Supine said:


> This shit just got serious - my local Chinese takeaway is closed as the family got back from a holiday in China. They’re fine but self isolating to be on the safe side.



The couple that run my local Chinese takeaway came back from China about 3 weeks ago, they told me earlier that they have seen a massive drop in turn-over since.


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

baldrick said:


> I don't have anything to add really but I'm finding this thread really useful so thank you elbows and the rest of you for collating it all. It's extremely helpful, useful insights but not too much hysteria



Cheers. Lets just make sure it doesnt end up with too much of me and not enough of everyone else, I'm always concerned about this possibility and it has happened in the past with things like Fukushima.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 22, 2020)

Supine said:


> So elbows is calling a pandemic. Let's wait for WHO / CDC / EMA etc to make the call before stating this as fact...



TBF a pandemic can just be something prevalent in one country, which clearly it is in China, it doesn't have to be worldwide.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 22, 2020)

elbows said:


> Cheers. Lets just make sure it doesnt end up with too much of me and not enough of everyone else, I'm always concerned about this possibility and it has happened in the past with things like Fukushima.



What’s your gut feeling to how this will pan out?


----------



## Supine (Feb 22, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> TBF a pandemic can just be something prevalent in one country, which clearly it is in China, it doesn't have to be worldwide.



It's semantics to an extent but what your talking about is an epidemic.


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

Supine said:


> So elbows is calling a pandemic. Let's wait for WHO / CDC / EMA etc to make the call before stating this as fact...



I have spewed hundreds of words in recent days on the subject of pandemic, in order to explain where I am at right now. I doubt people want me to drone on further about all the detail of exactly what I said.

I was hoping that would count as more than sufficient context that I may then be able to talk about various pandemic themes without being accused of prematurely declaring a pandemic.

Many of my posts are long and tedious. Sometimes I will try to compensate for this by taking shortcuts with my language. Must I qualify my use of the term pandemic every time I use it here now, can I not rely on people to have read some of my more recent posts on the subject?

Well no, clearly I cannot rely on that. So here I go again:

A pandemic seems rather inevitable. Many of the indicators are in place, and various experts who communicate their opinions on social media have changed their tone in recent days, as have the US CDC and the WHO. The exact language used varies, and for example the WHO are still claiming that the window of opportunity is not quite shut yet. Others think it is shut. Nobody I have seen so far is actually declaring a pandemic, but plenty of people who are far better qualified than me now consider it to be something of an inevitability.


----------



## andysays (Feb 22, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> I don't think so, this is totally different to both SARS & MERS, the previous two death threatening variants of a coronavirus, so what can it be compared with?


Can you remind us (ideally in a simple, non technical way) of how it's significantly different to those two.

And what was it prevented those two from becoming global pandemics in the way it's feared this one might?


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> What’s your gut feeling to how this will pan out?



I dont really have any beyond the one I've had since Jan 20th that we would be rather lucky to avoid a pandemic, and that the numbers involved and the characteristics of the virus were not on our side.

It seems to have panned out that way so far, but even if it carries on that way I'm not really expecting a stage to be reached that unlocks a new set of gut feelings in me.

Plus a large part of the reason I spend so long nerding out on these subjects is that I want real info, I dont want to rely on gut feelings.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 22, 2020)

The chances of a pandemic are high but that should not induce panic. This will likely grind on for months if not a year or 2. Problems will arise and they will be addressed. Disruption may occur but generally core needs will be met and life will go on.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 22, 2020)

Supine said:


> It's semantics to an extent but what your talking about is an epidemic.



What I am talking about is the definition according to the OED - a disease that spreads over a whole country or the whole world.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 22, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> What I am talking about is the definition according to the OED - a disease that spreads over a whole country or the whole world.











						What is a pandemic?
					






					www.who.int


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

andysays said:


> Can you remind us (ideally in a simple, non technical way) of how it's significantly different to those two.
> 
> And what was it prevented those two from becoming global pandemics in the way it's feared this one might?



We'll probably be best to wait ages for proper scientific comparisons and studies into this. So please consider the following to be tentative:

Factors may include:
How easily spread to other people it is.
How visible it is.
Timing.

These sorts of factors can combine, and include how long it takes for symptoms to show up, how big the initial outbreak got before anyone noticed, how well standard methods for reducing spread work, how many mild (and easily missed) cases there are. Having really reliable tests can make quite a difference too.

There was some international spread of SARS, including a large local outbreak in Canada, but ultimately containment still succeeded. This sort of detail is an important consideration that should be taken into account by people like me when making statements about whether a pandemic seems inevitable. Unfortunately the nature of outbreaks in some countries seems to resemble wider community spread rather than easily distinguishable clusters. Pandemics stand a much better chance of being prevented if you can identify all the clusters and isolate them. When there are visible signs of this not happening with every case in every country beyond the original outbreak country, pandemic concerns rapidly increase, and thats whats happened this week.


----------



## Supine (Feb 22, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> What I am talking about is the definition according to the OED - a disease that spreads over a whole country or the whole world.



The Wikipedia definition is a bit more nuanced. A pandemic is increased *and sustained* transmission in the general population. There is some transmission here but it comes down to a subjective analysis by the experts as to what sustained means.


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

This is the sort of sensible sentiment I see being expressed in recent days. Click on the tweet to see the full thread.


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

Supine said:


> The Wikipedia definition is a bit more nuanced. A pandemic is increased *and sustained* transmission in the general population. There is some transmission here but it comes down to a subjective analysis by the experts as to what sustained means.



When it comes to things like novel strains of influenza, the likes of the WHO favoured having a system with a whole bunch of different phases. But these things are tuned to expectations and public communication regarding influenza pandemics, and I have no idea if they intend to use aspects of this framework for Covid-19 or not. In terms of declaring different phases, at this rate it seems a bit late to bother with exactly the same format, but I am bringing it up to provide an indication of where thresholds between pandemic/not a pandemic may be set.



> The World Health Organization (WHO) provides an influenza pandemic alert system, with a scale ranging from Phase 1 (a low risk of a flu pandemic) to Phase 6 (a full-blown pandemic):
> 
> Phase 1: A virus in animals has caused no known infections in humans.
> Phase 2: An animal flu virus has caused infection in humans.
> ...











						Pandemics
					

COVID-19 has become the latest pandemic. Learn more about the difference between pandemics, epidemics, and outbreaks; how they’re classified; and how to prevent diseases such as COVID-19.




					www.webmd.com


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 22, 2020)

Interesting article from August 2019 highlighting America’s reliance on Chinese pharmaceuticals.









						U.S. Dependence on Pharmaceutical Products From China
					

Last month, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission held a hearing on the United States’ growing reliance on China's pharmaceutical products. The topic reminded me of a spirited discus…




					www.cfr.org
				




How hard is this Coronavirus hitting the supply chain of not just Pharma but general goods around the world?


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

Its the stuff represented by the green bit of this graph that has lead to the change of mood, the talk of new phase/pandemic/the window closing.



(from WHO situation report https://who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200222-sitrep-33-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=c9585c8f_2… _ )


----------



## sihhi (Feb 22, 2020)

Situation in Iran appears to be very serious:









						Iranian Doctors Call For 'Long Holiday' To Contain Coronavirus, As Sixth Victim Dies
					

A group of doctors from various universities of Tehran has called on the government to announce a long holiday until after Nowrouz (New Year) to contain the coronavirus outbreak and prevent the virus from spreading.




					en.radiofarda.com
				




I wish I new Farsi but I don't.

On China the watchword is follow what the authorities do, not what the numbers say.

From Weibo (Chinese twitter)

7 navy steamers are bringing 19 new medical teams to Wuhan.

Tier 2 and Tier 3 Jiangxi cities have allowed people out as long as they are wearing masks.

Production will restart in Chengdu supplier factories

Many find the fact that 15,000 Japanese fans went to watch JLeague football wearing masks absurd.

Comment about 23 passengers from the liner failing to be quarantined in Japan but allowed to go home.

According to Chinese media Zhejiang laboratories are apparently at the stage of testing an RNA-based vaccine in animals.

Many reports of police officers dying, there's a memorial compilation photo of 21 police officers dead during the period, one rather ominously a 26 year old male who was found collapsed in his dormitory.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 22, 2020)

chilango said:


> Yep.
> 
> First noticed a whole bunch of police bikes hanging around at the services. Then more and more appeared on the Northbound side and then the convoy.
> 
> It was a scary sight.


Do you remember the series The Survivors?


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Lol, I get your point, but I’m getting the impression that this (Coronavirus) is spreading faster than anticipated and with China being central to the global economy, it may well be prudent to take some precautions.



I've never done the "stocking up" thing before, but I've made sure to get a lot of extra cans of food, etc. over the last couple of weeks - as seen in Hong Kong, a sudden rush of panic buying can lead to shortages whether or not there are problems in the supply chain.

If anyone's thinking of getting a new toaster or whatever this might be a good time - I don't think inventories of made-in-China goods will be running out just yet, but since it takes a month to ship things by sea from China, and it's been about a month since many factories closed down for Chinese New Year and didn't reopen afterward, we might be feeling the effects soon.


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

Some ways this thing might yet fail to reach a status truly worthy of the word pandemic:

Ongoing massive and extraordinary human response makes a huge difference to the viruses ability to expand to full on epidemic levels in numerous countries, even when it has failed to prevent overall containment.

Some aspect of the virus that has not yet become apparent at all turns out to be a thing, and a big limiting factor in its spread, or how the disease is perceived.

Something happens on the medical or detection front that equips us with important new tools in the fight against this virus at a crucial moment.


Note that with different timing and a different magnitude of impact, some of these things may also end up being factors even in the event of a pandemic, that affect the timing and nature of the waves, overall ultimate levels of infection, impact on communities and healthcare facilities, public perceptions of disease severity and risk and indeed whether any pandemic was a 'big deal'.

The concept of a pandemic is one thing. Exactly where we set the threshold for declaring one is another. I have not declared one, because we are have not lurched beyond my own personal threshold just yet. But I certainly have raised the prospect of one, and I did use sloppy language in one post earlier. In the context of a 'how might this unfold' explanation, I did call the current thing 'this pandemic', which was a mistake. I'm glad I was called out for this, even though it has provided me the opportunity to bore on to the extent that I am now boring myself.

As for how the timing of me deciding a pandemic might vary compared to the WHO's timing, its unclear. Based on past events I have been assuming that a big chunk of the mainstream world will decide its a pandemic (if that time clearly comes) well before the WHO formally declares it. But since my previous observations were based on a particular influenza pandemic, and their influenza pandemic phases were clearly defined in a way that non-influenza ones arent, I probably shouldnt assume how far behind the obvious reality the WHO will lag this time. I am going to go and check for how long the delay was in 2009.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 22, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I've never done the "stocking up" thing before, but I've made sure to get a lot of extra cans of food, etc. over the last couple of weeks - as seen in Hong Kong, a sudden rush of panic buying can lead to shortages whether or not there are problems in the supply chain.
> 
> If anyone's thinking of getting a new toaster or whatever this might be a good time - I don't think inventories of made-in-China goods will be running out just yet, but since it takes a month to ship things by sea from China, and it's been about a month since many factories closed down for Chinese New Year and didn't reopen afterward, we might be feeling the effects soon.


I recollect one big container ship getting sent back in 2006. No coats in marks and spencer that winter.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 22, 2020)

I think elbows is a bit too measured, too afraid of mindless and needless speculation. I think there is an argument for more sweeping generalisations, excercise by jumping to conclusions, spice it up a bit.


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

TopCat said:


> I think elbows is a bit too measured, too afraid of mindless and needless speculation. I think their is an argument for more sweeping generalisations, excercise by jumping to conclusions, spice it up a bit.



I lurch around into some of the other territory too, but yes my default does tend to revert to measured waffle.

I look to others for the spice, although plenty of the alarming developments that I have brought up here in the last week or so, especially the talk of 'a new phase' in Japan and elsewhere even before the numbers started coming in to back this up, is my version of spicing things up and trying not to fall too far behind the curve. And I wont be waiting for the press release before using the p word more in future!


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 22, 2020)

Watched this earlier - wonder if these bacteriophage’s can be used somehow in the fight against Coronavirus?


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

Does this count as spice?





__





						Error - RTHK
					






					news.rthk.hk
				






> Viruses vary in how they infect. The new coronavirus -- unlike its cousins Sars, or severe acute respiratory syndrome, and Mers, or Middle East respiratory syndrome -- spreads as easily as a common cold.
> 
> And it's almost certainly being spread by people who show such mild symptoms that no one can tell, said Dr Amesh Adalja of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
> 
> ...


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 22, 2020)

Want work tracking this coronavirus in Iran?









						Research on Coronavirus in Iran
					

Research online sources of all types — formal and informal — for information related to Coronavirus outbreak in Iran.  Videos, chats, articles, etc....




					www.upwork.com


----------



## TopCat (Feb 22, 2020)

Any people still on the ship of doom? Maybe some first person accounts with moaning in the background?


----------



## TopCat (Feb 22, 2020)

I better go to bed. Recharge my empathy.


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

For an article with todays date, this is poor from the Guardian.









						What is coronavirus and what should I do if I have symptoms?
					

What are the symptoms caused by the virus from Wuhan in China, how does it spread, and when should you call a doctor?




					www.theguardian.com
				





I'm not expecting them to call it a pandemic yet but shit me, even the WHO wont wait for it to be detected in all 195 countries on their list 

And the 'not spreading within those countries yet' is a silly thing to say right now, this part of the message should have been adjusted by now.

Another thing I moan about is when the subject of other coronaviruses that affect humans is mentioned, its really poor form to only mention SARS and MERS and not the other coronaviruses that we know circulate in humans and cause a fair portion of colds. But they are nowhere to be found in the Guardian piece.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

So at the moment it's an epidemic from my limited point of view I don't see the big deal about calling it a pandemic. Does something significant happened if we change the description?

What I think I do know is it is a very infectious virus which kills between 1 and 2% of those it infects, and it predominantly kills those who are slightly weaker than perhaps a robust youth might be. So the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions even heavy smokers.

And at the moment there is no medicine to combat it and there is no vaxine either.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

Oh and I think for various reasons China is doing a better job at containing it than Britain would if there was a large outbreak here.

Heck China built 2 hospitals with more than 2000 extra beds in just 10 days. I can't see the NHS doing that not with current funding.


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

The word pandemic has connotations, for that and other reasons authorities prefer to reserve the word for a particular moment, and use the announcement of one to give a new push to various plans and messages. I'll leave it at that for now.

Oh Italy. The less the UK press (well really I mean things like the front pages of BBC and Guardian websites, I havent done a proper study) draw attention right now to the unfolding picture there, the more I want to pay attention. Especially as it has a certain degree of similarity to what we have just seen with Iran, in terms of initial deaths coming around the same time as case discoveries, with all that implies.

I was not trying to defend dodgy regimes in the past when I suggested that many aspects of information/case discovery lag were not actually regime specific and should be expected in many other places. Places where we would not be inclined to immediate frame events as symptoms of a dubious regime and their failings.









						Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
					

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.




					uk.reuters.com
				






> MILAN (Reuters) - Cases of the new coronavirus in Italy, the worst affected country in Europe, rose on Saturday to nearly 60, including two people who have died, and spread to the financial capital Milan.
> 
> Authorities in the northern regions of Lombardy and Veneto, where the outbreak is concentrated, have shut down schools and banned public events while companies from Ray-Ban owner Luxottica to the country’s top bank UniCredit have told workers living in the worst hit areas to stay home.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

Interesting I didn't know about Italy.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 22, 2020)

2,459 deaths reported so far.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 22, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> 2,459 deaths reported so far.


That's a lot of people.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> That's a lot of people.



If this goes fully unconfined a few zeros will be added to that figure.


----------



## elbows (Feb 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Interesting I didn't know about Italy.



Its a fast developing story. And some aspects of it have certainly been reported in the UK, including in football news:









						Italian games off over coronavirus fears
					

A number of football matches in Italy have been postponed over fears of the spread of coronavirus.




					www.bbc.co.uk
				




If they make Italy the great big main headline story and direct huge amounts of attention towards it then, a bit like the decision to use the word pandemic or not, it might be considered to be one of those bits of news which can have a notable impact on public concerns about risks to themselves, because things will seem a bit closer to home. Since recent days have already featured news that has changed the tone, and such adjustments are ongoing, there could be a little bit of lag before they are quite ready for the UK message and mood music to advance to quite that stage. Plus much depends on whether number of confirmed cases in Italy leaps up dramatically from the point its already reached, and how quickly. What I am saying could be obsolete rather quickly indeed, I dont know what will be detected this week or whether phase of UK public health message will change more obviously sometime this week, it might.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 23, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> If this goes fully unconfined a few zeros will be added to that figure.


Well it is spreading from Hubei and Wuhan into wider China, Korea, Singapore, Japan, Iran, potentially Africa, Italy etc..

The spread does seem quite gradual but perhaps that's the way of these things. Perhaps it just creeps up on us.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 23, 2020)

I'm surprised there have only been 60 or so cases in Hong Kong, I thought there would be thousands by now. The lesson seems to be that face masks really do protect against the coronavirus, as long as absolutely everybody wears them.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 23, 2020)

Yossarian I don't understand the situation in Hong Kong either, they had open borders with China for a long time.

However I'm not sure about the effectiveness of masks, people in China wearing them and still contracting the virus.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yossarian I don't understand the situation in Hong Kong either, they had open borders with China for a long time.
> 
> However I'm not sure about the effectiveness of masks, people in China wearing them and still contracting the virus.



They seem to be more effective at stopping people spreading the virus - so while some people may have thought they were wearing masks to protect themselves, they were actually protecting everybody else.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its a fast developing story. And some aspects of it have certainly been reported in the UK, including in football news:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



La Repubblica, Italy's version of the Guardian, has a live feed here:








						Coronavirus in Italia: tutte le notizie di febbraio
					






					www.repubblica.it
				




In Italy, it seems a classic case of hospital-based spread. At least there is some honesty about this:

“All those who have tested positive are people who on February 18-19 had contacts with the emergency room and the hospital of Codogno,” Regional Health Councillor Giulio Gallera said, adding 259 people had been screened in the area in the past two days and 35 had tested positive.

I think there is something lacking about Iran's announcements. Already there have been 6 deaths. In Qom, there are Chinese workers and engineers doing railway work, and people there know this and were told blatant lies about the shooting of the Ukraine passenger plane blaming for three days, so there's more scepticism.



.


----------



## MrSki (Feb 23, 2020)

As for the NHS being well prepared to deal with it, this tweet from an NHS doctor does not agree.


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 23, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Watched this earlier - wonder if these bacteriophage’s can be used somehow in the fight against Coronavirus?



Bacteriophages eat/kill bacteria. Not much use against a virus.


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

MrSki said:


> As for the NHS being well prepared to deal with it, this tweet from an NHS doctor does not agree.



Looks like he concluded it was a pandemic on Saturday too.


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

The Guardian are now giving the Italian stuff prominence, via an AP story prominently placed on their homepage (at the time of writing).









						Coronavirus: northern Italian towns close schools and businesses
					

Authorities act on cluster of infections in the Lombardy and Veneto regions




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 23, 2020)

Korea's upgraded the situation to the most serious level.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes and your machine on which you get customers to sign for delivery will be a primary vector of contamination.



Ive noticed recently that delivery people are signing it themselves. 
Not that I'm at the receiving end of shitloads of deliveries I hasten to add ...


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 23, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> The ‘unthinkable’ is terrifying to envision.
> 
> Im already hearing advice (social media) to stock up on canned goods and water, just in case.



Why is water something we would need to stock up on?
🤔

I'm on a mains water scheme that's actually very good...modernised 15 years ago. About the best in the country...apparently. 

How would a coronavirus outbreak effect supply of water? 

Anyone?


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 23, 2020)

A pretty animated graph doing the rounds on Twitter.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 23, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Why is water something we would need to stock up on?
> 🤔
> 
> I'm on a mains water scheme that's actually very good...modernised 15 years ago. About the best in the country...apparently.
> ...



The WHO estimates worker absenteeism at around 35% during pandemic waves. This is not just through illness but for all considered reasons. If any organisation loses 35% of its staff the service it provides will be reduced. However, as I’ve previously mentioned water is a core part of the UKs Critical National Infrastructure. Its a must have. In the realistic worst case scenario there may be some minor disruption but maintaining an acceptable level of service will be a priority. No need to panic.


----------



## kalidarkone (Feb 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Oh and I think for various reasons China is doing a better job at containing it than Britain would if there was a large outbreak here.
> 
> Heck China built 2 hospitals with more than 2000 extra beds in just 10 days. I can't see the NHS doing that not with current funding.


Even if they did there is no staff. There is not even enough staff to fill the hospitals we have.
A colleague at work recently went to Thailand for holiday, she has come back and self isolated for 14 days as those are our trust guidelines atm.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 23, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Why is water something we would need to stock up on?
> 🤔
> 
> I'm on a mains water scheme that's actually very good...modernised 15 years ago. About the best in the country...apparently.
> ...



Yeah, it’s already been discussed up-thread - I was probably being over cautious.


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> As for how the timing of me deciding a pandemic might vary compared to the WHO's timing, its unclear. Based on past events I have been assuming that a big chunk of the mainstream world will decide its a pandemic (if that time clearly comes) well before the WHO formally declares it. But since my previous observations were based on a particular influenza pandemic, and their influenza pandemic phases were clearly defined in a way that non-influenza ones arent, I probably shouldnt assume how far behind the obvious reality the WHO will lag this time. I am going to go and check for how long the delay was in 2009.



Oops, I started looking into this and it looks like there was a period in late May/early June 2009 where, according to some reports of the time, the UK was one of the countries leaning on the WHO to delay the announcement of pandemic phase 6. Unfortunately the supporting articles from the period are often not available now, so I will have to do some more digging on this one. I havent been able to ascertain how much delay this caused, although since phase 6 was eventually declared on June 11 2009, might only be talking about a week or two. And interestingly it was Scotland that ended up acknowledging wider community spread before the UK as a whole was ready for that stance. At the time the UK stuck to a 'tamiflu-based containment strategy' as a big part of their public health message, and seemed reluctant to move on.

Speaking of Scotland, there was this yesterday:









						Coronavirus: Scottish public health rules tightened
					

Covid-19, the new form of coronavirus, becomes a notifiable disease under Scottish public health rules.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> Covid-19, the new form of coronavirus which has killed over 2,000 people around the world, has become a notifiable disease in Scotland.
> 
> Health regulations have been updated, requiring doctors to inform health boards about any cases of the disease.
> 
> They must share patient information "if they have reasonable grounds to suspect a person they are attending has coronavirus".


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 23, 2020)

This is a succinct explanation of a pandemic:  

I like his accent too.


----------



## baldrick (Feb 23, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Korea's upgraded the situation to the most serious level.


Are you and your husband there still? I know you were keen to go home but I don't know how possible that is for you x


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 23, 2020)

baldrick said:


> Are you and your husband there still? I know you were keen to go home but I don't know how possible that is for you x



Yeah, we're in Seoul right now. We're planning on heading back into China this week and being quarantined in our apartment for 14 days.  Our city seems to have things under control and I have some sausages in my freezer I can't stop thinking about.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 23, 2020)

Holy cow. New one in Hong Kong visited clinic 6 times in space of 9 days, eventually hospitalised and diagnosed. His flat and apartment block now been deep cleaned.

Also some sort of cluster in a Hong Kong Buddhist temple group - 3 confirmed all visited there early February.

A 29 year old female doctor in Wuhan confirmed 31 Jan, died yesterday.


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

Regarding when to start going on about pandemics, and other issues of public health communication, these risk comms people believe in preparing the public well in advance. Probably not everyone in their field, and related fields, agrees with everything they say, but they do broadly represent the sort of approach I favour and have argued for here in the past.









						Past Time to Tell the Public: “It Will Probably Go Pandemic, and We Should All Prepare Now”
					

by Jody Lanard and Peter M. Sandman NOTE FROM IAN: The expert risk communication team of Lanard and Sandman has given me permission to post their very well-considered reply to my question of them just




					virologydownunder.com
				




That article also contains a link to a similar article they did in regards swine flu in 2009. This also happens to be one of the few remaining sources I can find that makes reference to the UK leaning on the WHO in 2009. But its a rather long piece that probably could have been made a lot more concise. And in the 2009 piece, they could rely on certain assumptions about flu, not all of which currently apply to this coronavirus. But its a topic close to my heart. And given the way containment and the narrative have gone with coronavirus so far, some of their key points seem extremely relevant.






						Containment as Signal:  Swine Flu Risk Miscommunication  (Peter Sandman column)
					

Containment as Signal:   Swine Flu Risk Miscommunication   (Peter Sandman column)




					www.psandman.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

My stuff last night about Italy not being the main headline did not last long.










						Coronavirus: Venice Carnival closes as Italy imposes lockdown
					

Italy quarantines whole towns, closes schools and cancels sports fixtures as infections increase.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## TopCat (Feb 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> Regarding when to start going on about pandemics, and other issues of public health communication, these risk comms people believe in preparing the public well in advance. Probably not everyone in their field, and related fields, agrees with everything they say, but they do broadly represent the sort of approach I favour and have argued for here in the past.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I for one thank you for the measured sifting of the evidence. The risk communication people, who elected them? How are they accountable?


----------



## TopCat (Feb 23, 2020)

TopCat said:


> I for one thank you for the measured sifting of the evidence. The risk communication people, who elected them? How are they accountable?


The detectable softening up process can be alarming.


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

TopCat said:


> I for one thank you for the measured sifting of the evidence. The risk communication people, who elected them? How are they accountable?



Who elected me? How am I accountable?

I dont think I have the energy for a proper discussion about this right now, but its probably obvious from my posts that I value getting information and opinion for a broad array of sources, ideally taking into account expected bias of various sources, even good ones.

Maybe I could have been a good little technocrat myself, but I have the wrong attitude towards many things for that. I favour a world of open information, open, broad decision making, giving the public the information.

At the same time, I know that we need specialists, but there should be more room for generalists too. In a world full of both, working in an open way that anyone can join in with, we could hopefully  cancel out a lot of awful crap.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 23, 2020)

You are doing a grand job.


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

TopCat said:


> The detectable softening up process can be alarming.



Probably one of the things that makes me post so much in these sorts of threads is that I seem to develop a desire to help people see certain aspects coming, not sticking to the schedule and limitations of the official/mainstream framing at all times. 

I'd rather not have a softening up stage, I'd rather all that stuff was baked into what people are initially told instead. Or at least I'd be wary of building up peoples expectations about what containment is expected to achieve, and other stuff like that, and then having to obviously change tune later.

There are limits though. I think I baked most of the possibilities into what I've been saying since the start of the thread, but I still couldnt get too far ahead of known reality. Perhaps some people read between the lines with what I started going on about in regards Singapore, South Korea, Japan in the last 8 days, and have got a weeks head-start on the new mood. Whether this is actually useful in any way I have no idea at all!


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

It was a weird experience trying to do a similar thing in 2009. Because as pandemics go, that one was subject to a lot of understandable indifference, once the low mortality rate and some other aspects became clear. It was still a pandemic with plenty of human tragedies, but its fatality rate, severe case rate, and the way that it targeted the young far more than the old, changed the healthcare burden and how people perceived it. And before it turned into large, sustained community outbreaks in the UK, we already had data from what happened at that stage in the USA.

It doesnt seem like this coronavirus, assuming it becomes a pandemic, will be the same story, so I am in personally uncharted waters.


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

I suppose the news that four people from the cruise ship that have been flown back to the UK have tested positive is one of the least surprising bits of news.









						Coronavirus: Four new UK cases among ship evacuees
					

The patients caught the virus on the Diamond Princess cruise liner, bringing the total UK cases to 13.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## andysays (Feb 23, 2020)

Four of the cruise liner evacuees who arrived in Britain yesterday now diagnosed positive


----------



## sihhi (Feb 23, 2020)

They're incomparable, different viruses, tens of times more deadly than the other.

Third death in Italy was on an inpatient oncology ward. Looks like hospital transfer.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> I suppose the news that four people from the cruise ship that have been flown back to the UK have tested positive is one of the least surprising bits of news.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



In which case, why was the coach driver not wearing PPE? The aim is to slow down new cases not allow them to increase.


----------



## Supine (Feb 23, 2020)

sihhi said:


> In which case, why was the coach driver not wearing PPE? The aim is to slow down new cases not allow them to increase.



It was risk assessed that impaired visibility of the driver was more of a danger. Not by me!


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> I suppose the news that four people from the cruise ship that have been flown back to the UK have tested positive is one of the least surprising bits of news.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That takes the total of Diamond Princess passengers that left Japan & tested positive on return to their own countries to over a dozen*, more than those that tested positive on the ship when it was first quarantined, which as we know ended-up being almost 650 after this failed quarantine attempt.

* That doesn't include the 14 that the US took home despite testing positive in Japan, but includes the 4 that tested negative in Japan, but positive in the US. 

Considering the intention of the quarantine was in order to stop passengers leaving the ship & spreading it in Japan & across the world, and then secondly protecting those on the ship, the plan has been shown to be a total failure.

Although, I understand Japan was a bit fucked somewhere between a rock & a hard place, because they had nowhere else to quarantine almost 4,000 people.  

FFS - Sky News has just reported that these 4 had been tested in Japan, but were allowed to travel before the test results came back.


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Although, I understand Japan was a bit fucked somewhere between a rock & a hard place, because they had nowhere else to quarantine almost 4,000 people.



It was a difficult situation but I had every faith that Japanese bureaucracy would make it much worse!

I mean, just look at this for yet another example:



> Japan won’t test medical workers who came in close contact with passengers on the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship docked near Tokyo, the NHK broadcaster reported on Sunday (Feb 13).
> 
> Doctors and nurses who don’t have symptoms won’t be examined because they have "mastered the technology to prevent infection,” the report said, citing the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.











						Japan won’t test medical workers on cruise ship for virus
					

TOKYO: Japan won’t test medical workers who came in close contact with passengers on the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship docked near Tokyo, the NHK broadcaster reported on Sunday (Feb 13).




					www.thestar.com.my


----------



## two sheds (Feb 23, 2020)

I was idly wondering whether heat/cold kills the virus. SARS I see is killed by 56 degrees C for 15 minutes: 









						The Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the Viability of the SARS Coronavirus
					

The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				




While I was typing into the search bar the autocomplete flagged up "coronavirus killed by alcohol" and "coronavirus killed by drinking alcohol", which sounds perhaps overly hopeful but is certainly worth a try. I presume it will have to be 60% proof or higher though. 🥃


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 23, 2020)

And, there're claims that colloidal silver is a cure for coronavirus. 

Good job Dr_Jazzz isn't still posting on here.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 23, 2020)

I should perhaps try to honour his legacy


----------



## sihhi (Feb 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> It was a difficult situation but I had every faith that Japanese bureaucracy would make it much worse!
> 
> I mean, just look at this for yet another example:
> 
> ...



Rather like our Public Health England 15 minute rule when all experts in China state 20 seconds is plenty.

The situation in Korea seems to be complicated by the fact that Patient 31 went to the funeral of the church founder's brother where lost of people from all over Korea also attended.
There is a clear epicentre in Daegu but all over Korea now.


----------



## lazythursday (Feb 23, 2020)

I am going to fill my freezer tomorrow and stock up on pain killers. And make an appointment to make a will. This has started to feel very alarming indeed. I'm more worried about the potential chaos of a shutdown than actually dying, and think it's probably best to start panicking a few days ahead of everyone else.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 23, 2020)

lazythursday said:


> I am going to fill my freezer tomorrow and stock up on pain killers. And make an appointment to make a will. This has started to feel very alarming indeed. I'm more worried about the potential chaos of a shutdown than actually dying, and think it's probably best to start panicking a few days ahead of everyone else.


You should stop reading the news if you're reacting like this, it's clearly not good for you.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 23, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Rather like our Public Health England 15 minute rule when all experts in China state 20 seconds is plenty.
> 
> The situation in Korea seems to be complicated by the fact that Patient 31 went to the funeral of the church founder's brother where lost of people from all over Korea also attended.
> There is a clear epicentre in Daegu but all over Korea now.


If those numbers are cases that tested positive then they have a massive outbreak!


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

The BBC used the p word. 



> The BBC's medical correspondent Fergus Walsh said it seems increasingly likely that the spread of the new coronavirus will become a pandemic - or global outbreak.
> 
> "The combined situation in South Korea, Iran and Italy point to the early stages of pandemic," he said. "In each of these countries we are seeing spread of the virus with no connection to China."



From the bottom of Four new UK coronavirus cases among ship evacuees


----------



## lazythursday (Feb 23, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> You should stop reading the news if you're reacting like this, it's clearly not good for you.


You might be right. But I have simply started to think about whether I am prepared to deal with what people in other towns (albeit relatively few so far) are already dealing with. The consensus seems to be growing that containment isn't going to work. I'd rather be prepared, given pretty dodgy lungs.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 23, 2020)

lazythursday said:


> ..
> I'd rather be prepared, given pretty dodgy lungs.


Yes, I was a smoker for a while, I doubt I am ideally placed to flirt with this virus. 

But on the brighter side, there is no evidence the virus is on the loose in Britain yet.


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

Given that we are well past the point where concrete assurances can be given about any possible undetected community spread, and thus whether anyone here could be coming down with it, I thought it was worth having a quick look at what the seasonal picture is looking like in terms of other respiratory viruses.


From the latest weekly influenza report. https://assets.publishing.service.g...kly_national_influenza_report_week_8_2020.pdf


----------



## vanya (Feb 23, 2020)

I’m watching the Wuhan flu carefully, I note that the death rate outside China remains extremely low; the difference between what’s being reported in China and what’s being reported out here is really quite odd. Until we get a clearer idea of the actual death rate, via uncontrolled media, there’s no way to figure out how dangerous it actually is. 

The high death rates in China may be a consequence of the severe air pollution common there — if you’ve got damaged lungs, a flu-like respiratory infection is a much more serious matter.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 23, 2020)

I don't know how much to trust the figures coming out of China. 

Certainly I doubt the death ratio is likely to be less than they are reporting.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I don't know how much to trust the figures coming out of China.
> 
> Certainly I doubt the death ratio is likely to be less than they are reporting.



I suspect it will be lower, because they are struggling to test the massive numbers involved, therefore lots of mild cases will not be included in the total official figures of those infected.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 23, 2020)

Most experts expect the mortality rate to drop. However, there are pressures that may increase the mortality as well as reduce it.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 23, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> I suspect it will be lower, because they are struggling to test the massive numbers involved, therefore lots of mild cases will not be included in the total official figures of those infected.


Yes I take your point. 

But I think the fatality rate won't be as low as normal flu, or I think there would be less fuss about this virus.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 23, 2020)

Be aware the mortality rate is many times higher than seasonal flu. It may come down but it will most likely remain significantly higher than normal flu.


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> But I think the fatality rate won't be as low as normal flu, or I think there would be less fuss about this virus.



Even a fatality rate approaching that of normal flu could lead to this level of fuss, because its also a question of how many people are liable to get infected.

Flu in a normal flu season has less people to target, because of all those who are already immune to various degrees (including those offered by vaccination).

Thats why a flu epidemic can be big news, it might only be as fatal in percentage terms as the flu of other years, but loads more people get it, so lots more deaths than a non-epidemic year.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> Even a fatality rate approaching that of normal flu could lead to this level of fuss, because its also a question of how many people are liable to get infected.
> 
> Flu in a normal flu season has less people to target, because of all those who are already immune to various degrees (including those offered by vaccination).
> 
> Thats why a flu epidemic can be big news, it might only be as fatal as the flu of other years, but loads more people get it, so lots more deaths than a non-epidemic year.


What I meant was the overall effect of the virus, this is already way more effective at killing people than ordinary flu has been no?


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> What I meant was the overall effect of the virus, this is already way more effective at killing people than ordinary flu has been no?



Well I wouldnt choose that language exactly, as different people might read something different into 'effective at killing people'.

The overall effect of the virus depends on the stuff I mentioned in previous post, and the currently unknown mortality rate, what effects mitigation attempts have on the total number of people infected, whether and when we get better at treatment and prevention drugs etc, whether healthcare systems are overwhelmed.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 23, 2020)

Its fatality rate is very high.

The defining image of the outbreak so far is the one in Wuhan of the victim collapsed dead on the street.







This doesn't occur with flu, this is SARS2 COVID19.


----------



## Supine (Feb 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> What I meant was the overall effect of the virus, this is already way more effective at killing people than ordinary flu has been no?



It's looking that way, but paradoxically lower morbidity rates can lead to higher numbers of deaths if the transmitability is higher. It depends how well it can spread in the 'not ill' population.


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)




----------



## Part-timah (Feb 23, 2020)

elbows said:


>




Tweet deleted. What was the gist?


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Tweet deleted. What was the gist?



I have found another one (same video) to replace it with.


----------



## Callie (Feb 23, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Its fatality rate is very high.
> 
> The defining image of the outbreak so far is the one in Wuhan of the victim collapsed dead on the street.
> 
> ...


Source?


----------



## Supine (Feb 23, 2020)

Callie said:


> Source?



Probably bollox. Covid almost certainly doesn’t result in somebody lying perfectly supine in the street.


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

AFP had a similar photo at the end of January, they could not get confirmation of cause of death at that time.









						A man lies dead in the street: the image that captures the Wuhan coronavirus crisis
					

‘These days, many have died,’ says bystander as image shows workers in protective suits and masks taking body away




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## scifisam (Feb 23, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I was idly wondering whether heat/cold kills the virus. SARS I see is killed by 56 degrees C for 15 minutes:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



If that's true, then, from what I've heard of cruises, most of the people on there will be just fine


----------



## elbows (Feb 23, 2020)

Unfortunately there will probably be a lot more of this sort of thing in the days ahead.



> Austria has denied entry to a train from Italy on suspicion that two travellers might be infected with the coronavirus, the interior ministry said on Sunday.
> 
> “Tonight a train on its way from Venice to Munich was stopped at the Austrian border,” the interior ministry said.
> 
> The Italian State Railways had informed Austrian train operator OBB that there were two people with fever symptoms on the train, the ministry’s statement said.





> The train was now waiting at the Brenner Pass on Italian territory. “The further procedure is currently being discussed together with the Italian authorities.”
> 
> It is unclear when the train will be able to continue on its journey, an OBB spokesman said.





> Austria’s interior minister Karl Nehammer said earlier on Sunday that a coronavirus task force will meet on Monday to discuss whether to introduce border controls with Italy.











						Trains between Italy and Austria resume after passengers test negative for coronavirus
					

Austria suspended train services over the Alps to Italy for about four hours late on Sunday before restarting them after two travellers tested negative for coronavirus.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 23, 2020)

Callie said:


> Source?



An AFP reporter saw the man about a block away from one of the main Wuhan hospitals treating coronavirus patients - cause of death unclear, though it's certainly not unheard of for people with pneumonia to suddenly collapse.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 23, 2020)

Supine said:


> It was risk assessed that impaired visibility of the driver was more of a danger. Not by me!


That's very poor. The risk could have been mitigated with a different design of mask.


----------



## Flavour (Feb 23, 2020)

it's all gone mad in italy today. schools, museums, gyms and cinemas all closed for next week in the whole of piedmont and i think lombardy and veneto too.

the funniest news was the turin police saying they wouldn't be breathalyzing drivers. football matches cancelled too.

trains still running but i won't be surprised if services are reduced/cancelled in the coming days.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 24, 2020)

A coronavirus related racist attack: Woman attacked after confronting man over racist coronavirus abuse


----------



## scifisam (Feb 24, 2020)

Flavour said:


> it's all gone mad in italy today. schools, museums, gyms and cinemas all closed for next week in the whole of piedmont and i think lombardy and veneto too.
> 
> the funniest news was the turin police saying they wouldn't be breathalyzing drivers. football matches cancelled too.
> 
> trains still running but i won't be surprised if services are reduced/cancelled in the coming days.



Why??


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 24, 2020)

scifisam said:


> Why??











						Italy faces a sudden surge in covid-19 cases
					

Events are cancelled, roads are closed—and Matteo Salvini says: “Told you so”




					www.economist.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Click on it to see the whole thread.


----------



## maomao (Feb 24, 2020)

vanya said:


> I’m watching the Wuhan flu carefully, I note that the death rate outside China remains extremely low; the difference between what’s being reported in China and what’s being reported out here is really quite odd. Until we get a clearer idea of the actual death rate, via uncontrolled media, there’s no way to figure out how dangerous it actually is.
> 
> The high death rates in China may be a consequence of the severe air pollution common there — if you’ve got damaged lungs, a flu-like respiratory infection is a much more serious matter.


I've changed plane in Wuhan twice (though never left the airport) and both times there was zero visibility during landing, the whole city, like many Chinese cities, is covered in a shroud of smog.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 24, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I was idly wondering whether heat/cold kills the virus. SARS I see is killed by 56 degrees C for 15 minutes:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


* stocks up on gin *


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 24, 2020)

WHO rep on radio just now saying they don't care about calling it pandemic as it wouldn't change any advice or measures. Also she said pandemic is used specifically in relation to flu, which I thought was unusual...and wrong?


----------



## two sheds (Feb 24, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> * stocks up on gin *



I started the experiment last night with some Lamb's Rum (unfortunately only 40%) - it clearly needs to be drunk neat though and it did feel like it burned a bit of a path down. Don't feel any better this morning though .


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 24, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> WHO rep on radio just now saying they don't care about calling it pandemic as it wouldn't change any advice or measures. Also she said pandemic is used specifically in relation to flu, which I thought was unusual...and wrong?



Was it Dr Margaret Harris, who showed up representing WHO in this video from 4:00?  If so, I wouldn’t give any weight to her opinion as she seems to know nothing about anything. Half her answers in below interview were “we don’t know” and if they had simply interviewed a cucumber with “ we don’t know” printed on it, there would have been just as much useful info disseminated as a result.


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (Feb 24, 2020)

AP reporting this from Iran:



50 dead just in Qom!


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 24, 2020)

TheHoodedClaw said:


> AP reporting this from Iran:
> 
> 
> 
> 50 dead just in Qom!




Fuck. I feel this is significant. Elbows & Supine whats your take?


----------



## krtek a houby (Feb 24, 2020)

It's spread to our prefecture, but very much in a minority of cases. Still, have friends panicking and there's a possibility of it having an affect on our local small businesses (food outlets, restaurants, bars etc).

I feel that the fear is spreading somewhat faster than the damn virus


----------



## Supine (Feb 24, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Fuck. I feel this is significant. Elbows & Supine whats your take?



It’s certainly getting close to the p word. I think the next couple of weeks will be key.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 24, 2020)

Drive thru coronavirus testing being trialled by NHS.









						'Drive-thru' coronavirus testing to start in Britain on Monday
					

Suspected cases asked to drive to NHS health centres where nurses in Hazmat gear will swab them through the window




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> WHO rep on radio just now saying they don't care about calling it pandemic as it wouldn't change any advice or measures. Also she said pandemic is used specifically in relation to flu, which I thought was unusual...and wrong?



They are talking about their own world, the regulations that were signed up to by many countries, the bureaucratic systems and guidelines that were crafted (mostly with flu in mind).

In terms of the international health regulations, it was the declarations of a Public Health Emergency of International Concern that trigged and unlocked various things.

However, in terms of public information campaigns, repurposing various things that were designed for flu pandemics to help with this coronavirus, their own credibility and relevance, not looking like the worst of bureaucracy, they really should have a good think about how to use the word pandemic in this context, and be ready to announce one at some point. Its also possible that individual countries may still have stuff in their laws or financial rules that are unlocked by a pandemic declaration. And since the WHO have gone on so much in recent weeks about an 'infodemic', and would like to position themselves as a gatekeeper of this stuff, its not good for them to help foster a vacuum that others are more than ready to fill.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Fuck. I feel this is significant. Elbows & Supine whats your take?



Only reason this particular piece of info isnt a significant leap for me right now is that recent days already placed Iran and Italy in the dreaded 'deaths at the same time as community outbreak discovered' camp. I think I recently linked to a tweet about why that is bad news.

But yes, the number of deaths is significant because it suggests things about the total number of infections there, and how long ago things started there. I sort of expect to see rather a lot more of these indicators this week (and not just in Iran), and I will be rather relieved and surprised if we dont.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Oh and regarding the WHO, their relevance in respect of the word pandemic is already diminished to some degree because we are now past the point where state broadcasters will use the word pandemic in their website headline story.









						Coronavirus: World must prepare for pandemic, says WHO
					

But the UN health body says the coronavirus outbreak does not yet meet the criteria for a pandemic.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Sometimes the concept of a 'tipping point' will be used in such articles. If I am at all trigger happy with my use of the word pandemic, its because of the inevitable lag that I keep going on about. ie the stage at which we notice that the tipping point has been reached, is delayed compared to when the tipping point was actually reached. Much of what was revealed last week is also a story of what happened 2,3,4 weeks ago.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Was it Dr Margaret Harris, who showed up representing WHO in this video from 4:00?  If so, I wouldn’t give any weight to her opinion as she seems to know nothing about anything. Half her answers in below interview were “we don’t know” and if they had simply interviewed a cucumber with “ we don’t know” printed on it, there would have been just as much useful info disseminated as a result.



Some of that wont be down to her own failings, but rather the cautious and stifled considerations of the WHO. Diplomacy etc, shit I have gone on about so much already during the last month that I should avoid too much repetition now.

But I'll give one example. From that BBC piece I just linked to, she is quoted as saying this:



> "If countries took no measures at all we would have seen way, way, way more cases," she said. "That's what we mean by containment."



Thats all part of the expected change of message at this stage. Having originally positioned containment as being done with the possibility of stopping this becoming a pandemic as the goal, it is now necessary to change the stated purpose of containment. The change from stopping it, to slowing it instead.

This is reasonable stuff, except when its done by being slippery with language, eg saying 'this is what we meant all along when we mentioned containment, honest'. What should actually happen is that we use language and concepts properly and clearly, eg it could have been framed as 'we were in a containment phase and if that stage clearly fails then we move to a mitigation phase'. Some of the tools governments may use are the same in both phases, but the purpose is different, and public expectations need to be different about what can be achieved. But no, admitting to failure is not something that comes easy to bureaucracy, organisations and governments. And heaven forbid the public are introduced from the start to all the possible scenarios and not given an overly reassuring sense of how likely success was in the first place. So with those two alternative options off the table, we are instread left with signs that they are trying to move the goalposts surreptitiously.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 24, 2020)

WHO press conference WHO expert Bruce Aylward COVID "has to be considered capable of causing enormous health, economic and societal impacts in any setting."

I personally feel every place of work as per US CDC guidelines needs to be asked:

1. What is your plan? 
2. How will ensuring a socially-distanced and disinfected environment?
3. Are you promoting work from home? 
4. Are you providing sick pay so that the slightly ill do not attend work?
5. Are you cancelling non-essential travel, trips and mass meet ups? 

Cases snowball very quick.

At least 3 Korean MPs now being tested after close contact with a civil servant.
Parliament won't meet








						South Korea coronavirus cases surge, two more die
					

South Korea reported 231 new cases of a coronavirus, taking total infections to 833, health authorities said on Monday, a day after raising its infectious disease alert to the highest level.




					www.reuters.com
				




And Hong Kong has issued a Do Not Travel alert for South Korea.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 24, 2020)

you have to wonder what they'd do if something genuinely really fucking serious like the spanish flu broke out


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 24, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> you have to wonder what they'd do if something genuinely really fucking serious like the spanish flu broke out



The mortality rate as it stands is inline with Spanish Flu. This will probably reduce but we do not know for sure or by how much.

It could argued this has the realistic potential to kill more people than in 1918.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 24, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> The mortality rate as it stands is inline with Spanish Flu. This will probably reduce but we do not know for sure or by how much.
> 
> It could argued this has the realistic potential to kill more people than in 1918.


go on then.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> WHO rep on radio just now saying they don't care about calling it pandemic as it wouldn't change any advice or measures. Also she said pandemic is used specifically in relation to flu, which I thought was unusual...and wrong?



Oh I just found this.



> “There is no official category (for a pandemic),” WHO spokesman Tarik Jasarevic said.
> 
> “For the sake of clarification, WHO does not use the old system of 6 phases — that ranged from phase 1 (no reports of animal influenza causing human infections) to phase 6 (a pandemic) — that some people may be familiar with from H1N1 in 2009,” he said.











						Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
					

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.




					uk.reuters.com
				




I guess they didnt like all the bullshit that happened in 2009 then. Some governments leaned on them and the 6 phase scale was even adjusted during the outbreak to serve these purposes, and then they also got a lot of stick when it turned out not to be a bad pandemic.

Oh well, all this will make it a bit easier to use the word pandemic without waiting for arbitrary authorities to declare one.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 24, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> The mortality rate as it stands is inline with Spanish Flu. This will probably reduce but we do not know for sure or by how much.
> 
> It could argued this has the realistic potential to kill more people than in 1918.



CFR 2.3% is Spanish flu levels, 

WHO expert adds "This can't work without the collective will of the population contributing to it."


----------



## not-bono-ever (Feb 24, 2020)

Will of the people


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 24, 2020)

sihhi said:


> CFR 2.3% is Spanish flu levels,
> 
> WHO expert adds "This can't work without the collective will of the population contributing to it."


yes. but the spanish flu disproportionately affected people under 65. i'd be interested to see stats on mortality by age for the coronavirus


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> Will of the people



Or Will Self. There is a rumour he has found a very long word that can kill the virus.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> yes. but the spanish flu disproportionately affected people under 65. i'd be interested to see stats on mortality by age for the coronavirus



I will dig some up shortly. The problem is that the large sets of data are only from China at this stage, and inevitably deaths lag behind, so when I look at studies of the 'first so many thousand cases', they are premature because not all of those cases have reached their conclusion yet. So the numbers likely dont tell the story properly yet.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

The numbers from Italy are going in a predictably horrible direction.



> A fifth elderly patient has died after contracting the coronavirus in Italy, officials said on Monday, while the number of people testing positive for the virus is now over 200.





			https://www.thelocal.it/20200224/latest-deaths-coronavirus-italy
		


This will be the tip of the iceberg too


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 24, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> go on then.



Will do later. Go to attend a Coronavirus meeting first.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> yes. but the spanish flu disproportionately affected people under 65. i'd be interested to see stats on mortality by age for the coronavirus











						ncov/COVID-19.pdf at master · cmrivers/ncov
					

Contribute to cmrivers/ncov development by creating an account on GitHub.




					github.com


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 24, 2020)

elbows said:


> View attachment 199665
> 
> 
> 
> ...


so the % popping their clogs increases with age


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> so the % popping their clogs increases with age



Yes, although as per my earlier caveat, some caution is required with such figures at this stage. For example, if younger people took longer to die, they would be underrepresented by the numbers at that moment in time. I am not suggesting that is actually the case, but just one example of why there is a need for caution when interpreting these early numbers.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 24, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Drive thru coronavirus testing being trialled by NHS.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



A Big Mac meal and a Coronavirus swab test please.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)




----------



## Marty1 (Feb 24, 2020)

WHO now saying that Coronavirus fits into the category of so called disease X that could wipe out 80 million.

Source: The S*n


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

I just watched a bit of live WHO press conference. I tuned in just in time to hear the director general getting into the word pandamic. It went something along the lines of blah blah not pandemic time yet, pandemic potential yes, not a binary world, potential pandemic yes, series of epidemics in different countries is how we think of it right now.

Someone asked about the earlier comments by Bruce Aylward in regards other countries using the same containment measures as China. They didnt want to answer this question at all, and suggested we wait for Bruce to do a press conference tomorrow.


----------



## Poot (Feb 24, 2020)

elbows said:


> View attachment 199665
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Anyone know why it's killing so many more men than women?


----------



## Plumdaff (Feb 24, 2020)

Poot said:


> Anyone know why it's killing so many more men than women?



Something to do with rates of smoking?


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Dont get me wrong, there was reasonable WHO stuff mixed in with other stuff I dont like. Its fair for them to have pointed out that we can make a lot more assumptions about influenza pandemics because we have clear experience of them. And this isnt influenza, so there is less certainty.

They are also using all sorts of numbers out of China to point to a mixed picture - the alarming news from countries like South Korea, Iran and Italy, vs the hopeful picture painted by the Chinese numbers of recent weeks. Well maybe, it would be foolish to rule out that stuff, it might demonstrate that extreme containment measures across a country can make a huge difference. But at the very least such a possibility is premature to conclude, and will have to be tested against what happens as China relaxes restrictions, and what happens in other countries.

I have to remain somewhat skeptical because a lot of this fluff around the issue of whether this is a pandemic was entirely predictable, as is the sugarcoating. But that isnt just down to the nature of the WHO, its also about the nature of journalism and other human responses to the word pandemic.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Plumdaff said:


> Something to do with rates of smoking?



Thats one of the things thats been speculated about. Although there was one early indicator of the opposite - there was a study of a much smaller set of early patients that had fewer smokers in it than we would expect to see, but I wouldnt draw conclusions from that at this stage. I dont have any info about smokers from the much larger sets of cases that were used in subsequent studies, such as the one I used earlier for the mortality in different age ranges.


----------



## wayward bob (Feb 24, 2020)

<checks to see if those flights to italy i need to book got any cheaper>


----------



## sihhi (Feb 24, 2020)

A Level biology had that women's immune systems are generally stronger than men  leaving them more susceptible to autoimmune diseases.

Deagu health services already close to breaking point apparently, presumably because so many need oxygen and ICU.








						Coronavirus: leading Korean health official is member of church at epicentre
					

The official in charge of fighting the virus in western Daegu admitted belonging to the controversial sect only after testing positive for the virus. Fifty coworkers have been quarantined.




					www.scmp.com
				




_At present, South Korea bars only travellers from Wuhan and Hubei Province from entering the country.
Dr Lee Hoanjong, a professor at Seoul National University Children’s Hospital, said this meant carriers who might have contracted the virus in China, Singapore or elsewhere in Asia might have passed through quarantine gates unchecked.
“It is like claiming that the gate keeping is being done well without knowing that your back door is still left open”, he said.
“Our efforts should now be shifted to maintaining new cases at a manageable level. Medical staff and health infrastructure in Daegu are now being stretched to a breaking point. If we have another Daegu in this country, I can’t imagine what would happen.”_


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Here are some actual WHO tweets covering stuff said in the press conference that I had crudely described.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Sorry about all the tweets but I thought it was important to be clear about their position.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 24, 2020)

Poot said:


> Anyone know why it's killing so many more men than women?


Covid more likely to kill if obese.
Men more likely to be obese.
Women more likely to eat healthier diets.
So men more likely to die...?


----------



## andysays (Feb 24, 2020)

Coronavirus: World should prepare for pandemic, says WHO



> The World Health Organization has said the world should do more to prepare for a possible coronavirus pandemic. The WHO said it was too early to call the outbreak a pandemic but countries should be "in a phase of preparedness". A pandemic is when an infectious disease spreads easily from person to person in many parts of the world.


----------



## Supine (Feb 24, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Covid more likely to kill if obese.
> Men more likely to be obese.
> Women more likely to eat healthier diets.
> So men more likely to die...?



Or men frequent wet markets more? Women stay at home more?


----------



## Poot (Feb 24, 2020)

Supine said:


> Or men frequent wet markets more? Women stay at home more?


No, the mobidity figures are similar but the mortality figures are quite different. I just would have thought a flu-like disease would kill the same number of each sex so I'm surprised.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 24, 2020)

Poot said:


> No, the mobidity figures are similar but the mortality figures are quite different. I just would have thought a flu-like disease would kill the same number of each sex so I'm surprised.


This seems like a decent article on the subject (haven't read it all yet)









						Why the Coronavirus Seems to Hit Men Harder Than Women (Published 2020)
					

Women mount stronger immune responses to infection, scientists say. And in China, men smoke in much greater numbers.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Supine (Feb 24, 2020)

Looks like a job for elbows



Deliberate typo?


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 24, 2020)

andysays said:


> Coronavirus: World should prepare for pandemic, says WHO



It’s like they know fine well it’s a pandemic but are scared to say so.


----------



## Cid (Feb 24, 2020)

On mortality rates, given that they are also overwhelmingly elderly, it may reflect that elderly men of a similar cohort are more likely to have health problems. Diseases associated with work, smoking, drinking etc.


----------



## Poot (Feb 24, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> This seems like a decent article on the subject (haven't read it all yet)
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So all sorts of reasons. Interesting.


----------



## Supine (Feb 24, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> It’s like they know fine well it’s a pandemic but are scared to say so.



It's like they're experts in the field and are gathering data to make their assessment.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Supine said:


> It's like they're experts in the field and are gathering data to make their assessment.



And they are not immune to pressure from numerous nations. I must find out more about the 2009 pressure they had to deal with from the likes of the UK.

But yes thats only one factor, they also have to make really sure first. If they declared a pandemic and then one was somehow avoided, it would be a disaster for them.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 24, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> This seems like a decent article on the subject (haven't read it all yet)
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yep, this is a respiratory illness so I think smoking explains most of the disparity between sexes - something like two-thirds of men in China smoke but less than 5% of women, among the men over 60 who are dying in the largest numbers, almost everybody is probably either a smoker or an ex-smoker.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 24, 2020)

Poot said:


> Anyone know why it's killing so many more men than women?



Because as I’ve been telling my wife for years, man flu is the most serious disease on planet earth.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 24, 2020)

I remember reading some weeks ago that a vaccine for this virus will be 12-18 months away, because that’s always how long it takes to develop and test one. Well I’ve worked in construction for a long time and can tell you that building a large hospital takes at least two years, but the Chinese did it in 10 days last month.

So my question, asked more in hope than expectation - what chance a vaccine can be fast tracked using different methods than are normally applied, as called for by the urgency of this situation?


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 24, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I remember reading some weeks ago that a vaccine for this virus will be 12-18 months away, because that’s always how long it takes to develop and test one. Well I’ve worked in construction for a long time and can tell you that building a large hospital takes at least two years, but the Chinese did it in 10 days last month.
> 
> So my question, asked more in hope than expectation - what chance a vaccine can be fast tracked using different methods than are normally applied, as called for by the urgency of this situation?



Clinical trials take up the longest amount of time in vaccine development, so China will probably be able to shave at least a few months of the usual development time by experimenting on people in gulags.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 24, 2020)

The reports from Iran and Italy are not good. I understand in Italy they still haven't discovered the way the virus entered, so haven't found case no 1. 

I wonder what healthcare is like in Iran?


----------



## planetgeli (Feb 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The reports from Iran and Italy are not good. I understand in Italy they still haven't discovered the way the virus entered, so haven't found case no 1.
> 
> I wonder what healthcare is like in Iran?



Iran has a far more advanced healthcare system than most Westerners would believe, and despite crippling sanctions from USA. Life expectancy is 75-77, there are 1 million medical students in 51 schools and it has a comprehensive and developed pharmaceutical industry.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 24, 2020)

elbows said:


> And they are not immune to pressure from numerous nations. I must find out more about the 2009 pressure they had to deal with from the likes of the UK.
> 
> But yes thats only one factor, they also have to make really sure first. If they declared a pandemic and then one was somehow avoided, it would be a disaster for them.



Ive been hearing that China is likely deliberately fudging the data to downplay the level of new infections for economic reasons ie they don’t want their economy to crater any further than it already has - and other nations may be complicit in doing the same.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 24, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Ive been hearing that China is deliberately fudging the data to downplay the level of new infections for economic reasons ie they don’t want their economy to crater any further than it already has - and other nations may be complicit in doing the same.


Where have you heard this?


----------



## Flavour (Feb 24, 2020)

i was hoping to work from home all week but we've been told to be back in the office tomorrow (piedmont)


----------



## maomao (Feb 24, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Yep, this is a respiratory illness so I think smoking explains most of the disparity between sexes - something like two-thirds of men in China smoke but less than 5% of women, among the men over 60 who are dying in the largest numbers, almost everybody is probably either a smoker or an ex-smoker.


In China even non smoking men get pressured into having a fag once in a while and at least until a decade ago the fags were stronger and had a higher tar content than anything usually available over here. Don't discount air pollution though. 

Speedy recovery from respiratory infections has been the biggest revelation about stopping smoking for me. If it turned out to kill smokers in large numbers that might finish off smoking as a pastime for good.


----------



## maomao (Feb 24, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> Where have you heard this?


Pick a shitty alt right site. Don't know how that tosser's still here.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The reports from Iran and Italy are not good. I understand in Italy they still haven't discovered the way the virus entered, so haven't found case no 1.



Past a certain point you generally give up on trying to find original source case. And finding a big cluster only when some of the cases have reached the point of death is an indicator of being past that certain point.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 24, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> Where have you heard this?



Various media on my newsfeed.

The times, The NYT to name a couple.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 24, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Various media on my newsfeed.
> 
> The times, The NYT to name a couple.


Go on, post links to the nyt and thunderer articles


----------



## Chilli.s (Feb 24, 2020)

I'm entirely confident that our Home Secretary will be able to initiate a safe and successful selection of strategies to minimise or overcome any outbreak here.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 24, 2020)

Chilli.s said:


> I'm entirely confident that our Home Secretary will be able to initiate a safe and successful selection of strategies to minimise or overcome any outbreak here.


Yeh by resigning forthwith


----------



## Chilli.s (Feb 24, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> Yeh by resigning forthwith



I was thinking plenty of hospital visits to cheer people up.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 24, 2020)

Chilli.s said:


> I was thinking plenty of hospital visits to cheer people up.


Her corpse could be wheeled through hospitals round the land to cheer up patients and NHS staff


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

The enormous political, economic and other issues that can factor into these events, and how governments respond to them, is one of the main reasons I found it necessary to pay very close attention to potential pandemics and nuclear accidents in the first place.

And it is not just the 'usual suspects' who may indulge in downplaying and distorting the picture. We expect it from countries like China and Iran, because of existing framing. But other countries may easily do it too. eg Japan had its own flavour of bullshit that was on display during the Fukishuma disaster and again with this coronavirus. But the differences in approach between different nations is one of the things I exploit in order to get a better picture overall. These may be big differences, or small ones. For example in 2009 it seems like the UK governments approach to swine flu was not identical to Scotlands devolved health authorities approach, and these differences might even be part of the story as to how come wider community spread of H1N1 was detected and announced in Scotland before England.

Even though I am not at all glad to see the stage that things have started to reach with Covid-19 in various countries, I am at least glad that I am no longer reliant only on info from China to tell the story. It is impossible for me to judge the extent to which recent numbers from China tell the whole story. eg I cannot tell to what extent the numbers have been deliberately influenced to show a trend they wanted to show, or whether the data actually provides an accurate sense of how much draconian restrictions can affect the outbreaks.

Not that the numbers from any other country likely tell the whole story in those places at this stage either. We know that even where governments want to find the full picture, cases will be missed. And in countries that dont want to discover an alarming reality, there are ways to avoid looking in all the right places, at least at the earlier stages. Combine that with unavoidable lag in discovering the picture due to technical and practical reasons, and my desire to get a true sense of what is going on cannot hope to be met yet, even without the layers of political slipperiness.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 24, 2020)

I am interested in what is happening in other countries certainly and they sort of explain how this virus is able to build up infection rates so quickly when undetected and un-isolated but selfishly I am most interested in it not getting a foothold here out of fully personal reasons. As a former smoker, of one of the age groups that is highly affected, I just don't want to become a statistic myself!

And I know quite a lot of people who probably wouldn't survive being infected.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Due to my previous points, I will now travel back to May 2009 in order to give an example of what was being said at the time about the UKs swine flu stance.









						Britain criticized for efforts to halt swine flu
					

Flu experts are looking very closely at Britain — and some have decided that the U.K.'s swine flu-fighting tactics are seriously off the mark and may be hiding a much larger outbreak.




					www.nbcnews.com
				






> Flu experts are looking very closely at Britain — and some have decided that the U.K.'s swine flu-fighting tactics are seriously off the mark and may be hiding a much larger outbreak.
> 
> Since Britain has the most confirmed swine flu cases in Europe, how the outbreak develops here will have a significant influence on whether the World Health Organization decides to raise its flu alert to the highest level — a pandemic, or global epidemic.





> British authorities have relied on an aggressive strategy to try to snuff out the virus before it spreads, blanketing suspect cases and anyone connected to them with the antiviral medication Tamiflu.
> 
> But experts criticize the strategy for wasting valuable medicine and say there's little point trying to contain swine flu, which the WHO says is at least as infectious as regular flu.





> British health officials have confirmed 112 swine flu cases — the most in Europe, ahead of Spain, which raised its total to 111 on Thursday. Still, that number has raised eyebrows among experts for being suspiciously low, given swine flu's infectiousness and its rapid spread elsewhere.





> Rumors have swirled among health officials for weeks that Britain's caseload is far higher than officials are admitting.
> 
> "It's odd that we haven't seen more cases in Britain after the initial burst of cases," said Andrew Pekosz, a flu expert at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore.
> 
> Osterholm called Britain's official numbers "meaningless" and said while authorities were not hiding cases, they also weren't looking very hard for the virus.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 24, 2020)

elbows said:


> The enormous political, economic and other issues that can factor into these events, and how governments respond to them, is one of the main reasons I found it necessary to pay very close attention to potential pandemics and nuclear accidents in the first place.
> 
> And it is not just the 'usual suspects' who may indulge in downplaying and distorting the picture. We expect it from countries like China and Iran, because of existing framing. But other countries may easily do it too. eg Japan had its own flavour of bullshit that was on display during the Fukishuma disaster and again with this coronavirus. But the differences in approach between different nations is one of the things I exploit in order to get a better picture overall. These may be big differences, or small ones. For example in 2009 it seems like the UK governments approach to swine flu was not identical to Scotlands devolved health authorities approach, and these differences might even be part of the story as to how come wider community spread of H1N1 was detected and announced in Scotland before England.
> 
> ...



Looks like China is arresting citizens who post their situations on social media if it doesn’t fit the official narrative.









						Panic and Criticism Spread on Chinese Social Media Over Coronavirus (Published 2020)
					

Chinese citizens are overcoming a lack of reporting on the crisis in the state-run media by sharing their own videos and information about the coronavirus outbreak.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Oh one more bit from that previous 2009 swine flu article I quoted.



> The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is testing up to 400 specimens a day. But the British health agency has refused to say how many tests are being done daily. The U.K. is also only testing people with a history of visiting infected countries like Mexico or the United States, or people with links to already-established cases. That limited criteria means authorities could be missing lots of other cases if the virus has already spread into communities.
> 
> "There's no reason to think this virus would behave differently in Europe than in North America," Pekosz said. "The numbers in the U.S. and Mexico suggest that once you have a certain number of cases, you can seed a relatively wide outbreak."



At least we have been announcing the number of tests this time, thats a start. And at least one expert said a while back that we were testing pneumonia cases more generally now, but sadly I havent seen that discussed enough in the press or official documents, so I cannot really make many claims about current level of UK surveillance for Covid-19.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 24, 2020)

Hmm, as it happens I was in Essex in 2009, but still I don't recall much about the swine flu.


----------



## Dan U (Feb 24, 2020)

maomao said:


> Pick a shitty alt right site. Don't know how that tosser's still here.



Just did a big double take and realised you weren't laying in to marty21 and felt much happier.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 24, 2020)

It seems only a few days ago this was restricted mainly to Hubei and Wuhan, but also the rest of China. Now we have many cases in wider Asia and a foothold within Europe. 

On a slightly different angle: 








						Coronavirus credit crunch hits millions of Chinese firms
					

Prolonged shutdowns for businesses in China are bringing many firms to the brink of collapse.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				





> a survey of small and medium Chinese firms found millions on the verge of collapse.
> 
> The Chinese Association of Small and Medium Enterprises said around 60% could cover regular payments for only one to two months before running out of cash.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

I am now having a look at a government review of the UK 2009 pandemic response. I can already see some vague references to aspects that came up in that previous article, but nothing worth sharing yet.

I did however find something on the communication and terminology front which is kind of relevant now, at a time where we are seeing the concept of containment redefined by WHO etc before our very eyes.



> Although communications materials were in general good, certain terms used during the pandemic were unclear and caused confusion. Given the critical importance of the public clearly understanding the advice being given by government, some of the terminology should be revisited. In particular, ‘containment’ was used to describe a strategy which was not intended to contain the disease but to slow the spread. ‘Reasonable worst case’ was also confusing as it was used for a scenario in which each parameter was a reasonable worst case, but when combined they resulted in an increasingly unlikely scenario.



From executive summary of https://assets.publishing.service.g...ile/61252/the2009influenzapandemic-review.pdf


----------



## Treacle Toes (Feb 24, 2020)

Bloody hell 


But lol...


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> It seems only a few days ago this was restricted mainly to Hubei and Wuhan, but also the rest of China. Now we have many cases in wider Asia and a foothold within Europe.
> 
> On a slightly different angle:
> 
> ...



Wow, this could likely hurt China way past recovery - many companies will not want to be so solely reliant on China for manufacturing anymore and be looking to limit their exposure by outsourcing to other countries.


----------



## Cid (Feb 24, 2020)

maomao said:


> In China even non smoking men get pressured into having a fag once in a while and at least until a decade ago the fags were stronger and had a higher tar content than anything usually available over here. Don't discount air pollution though.
> 
> Speedy recovery from respiratory infections has been the biggest revelation about stopping smoking for me. If it turned out to kill smokers in large numbers that might finish off smoking as a pastime for good.



I hope it wipes the grins off the smug fuckers who smoked in the restaurants around Nanjing university (not all of them, just the particular ones who laughed at my Korean friend when she asked them to stop).


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 24, 2020)

Recent study suggests Coronavirus outbreak is 5 to 10 times worse than China admits.









						Evaluating Incidence and Impact Estimates of the Coronavirus Outbreak from Official and Non-Official Chinese Data Sources
					

ABSTRACT <br>This paper uses new credible non-official sources of data to evaluate the incidence and impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in Chin



					papers.ssrn.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

I am now finishing up my look back at 2009 pandemic, and issues relating to the timing of pandemic declaration, differences between Scotland and rest of UK.

I got what I was looking for in terms of the issue of community spread. This is from a Scottish review of the Scottish response to that pandemic:



> During the containment phase, surveillance was vital to assess if and when sustained community transmission was occurring (defined by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) as ‘Five or more confirmed cases’, occurring in a ‘third administrative geographical area’, in a seven day period, without travel history in past 7 days to a country having reported confirmed case(s) AND without traceable links to a confirmed case.’ A ‘third administrative geographical area’ is stated to correspond approximately to a population of 500,000).





> In the Scotland during the period from 24 May until 9 June 2009, two overlapping time periods were identified with five sporadic cases (i.e. without links to detected cases or their contacts) within a seven day period (24-30 May five cases and 26-31 May five cases).





			https://hpspubsrepo.blob.core.windows.net/hps-website/nss/2634/documents/1_flu-a-h1n1-hp-response-2010-12.pdf
		


For comparison, WHO pandemic declaration happened on June 11th.

Anyway sorry for straying off into 2009 H1N1 flu stuff this evening, hopefully it is clear why I went down this path now. I dont intend to harp on about these themes from now on unless emerging current events provide a direct reason to do so.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

Oh one more bit from that Scottish report, since the reproductive number for Covid-19 has been discussed in the past on this thread. I find it interesting to see what picture they had of that number for the swine flu by the end of May 2009.



> Data collected via the case investigation forms on cases and their contacts, were used for a number of statistical modelling purposes including an estimate of the reproductive number (R0) : the average number of new cases in the population resulting from transmission from a confirmed case. If the value of R0 is above 1.0 it indicates that there is sustained transmission within the population. By the end of May, the estimated values in Scotland were higher than 1.0 by the two methods used for estimation, 1.53 (95% CI 0.98-2.78) by the Farrington method (Farrington et al., 2003) and 2.34 (95% CI 1.87 – 2.80) by the Wallinga method (Wallinga and Teunis, 2004). At this time, these values were higher than overall estimates for the UK.



I suppose since I am so bloody interested in various kinds of lag of public info, I should compare some of these date from this Scottish report to what the UK and the Scottish health authorities said publicly on certain dates. Whether I can actually find all the necessary traces of that stuff now I do not know.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

I cannot find the government public health messages from 2009 that I need to do that bit properly, and dont have time to watch Scottish government videos from 2009 . Cut corners instead, found my own posts on u75 for the period in question. Here are a couple of snippets most pertinent to my point.

May 26th:


> Looks like Scotland has got a highly probably case who has no known links to travellers or other swine flu cases:
> 
> BBC NEWS | Scotland | Glasgow, Lanarkshire and West | Probable swine flu man 'critical'
> 
> ...



June 3rd:


> Various press conferences & media reports are that WHO is moving closer to Stage 6 global pandemic declaration, considering that the swine flu is now spreading locally in some communities outside North America. They are trying to add some extra stuff to their scale so that they can account for changes in disease severity, impact on specific countries, and may not be keen to move to stage 6 until this stuff is in place.
> 
> The Scottish Health Minister is starting to talk about wider spread, and moving beyond the attempted containment phase, and the WHO has Britain as one of a number of countries it describes as 'in transition' between limited travel related cases and wider community spread. They are obviously keen to avoid any danger of causing panic, economic consequences etc and so it might take a while longer for this situation to be fully accepted and talked about, but they probably cant stall it for too much longer without risking credibility.



OK thats most certainly it for me on the 2009 UK stuff now, I just needed to get this stuff out of the way in one session, so I didnt have to keep restating the point and context. I have certainly satisfied my own curiosity about 'lag'.


----------



## brogdale (Feb 24, 2020)

Sell, sell, sell!


----------



## pinkmonkey (Feb 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hmm, as it happens I was in Essex in 2009, but still I don't recall much about the swine flu.


I remember it because my nephew had it aged just 8 weeks and was the youngest kid in Yorkshire to get it at that time. Tamiflu worked, but fucking hell it was scary at the time as he was very poorly.


----------



## elbows (Feb 24, 2020)

I see the Guardian have been talking to 'sources' and poking around the existing influenza pandemic plan.









						Government to shut schools in event of UK coronavirus outbreak
					

No 10 planning for ‘all eventualities’ if number of coronavirus cases surge in UK




					www.theguardian.com
				




The existing influenza plan demonstrates how the UK normally has no stomach for internal travel restrictions or the cancellation of mass public gatherings. I wonder if this will change or, if not, how the disparity between that and actions taken in other countries will be explained. Still, this may be less of an issue depending on timing and whether any other countries demonstrate a different approach, more like the one the UK normally favours, first.

Interesting to see a little bit of timing mentioned too. I wonder how this will stand the test of time.



> The Department of Health believes it will be not until about May that it will be clearer what impact the virus is having on the UK, the rough estimated timescale between any initial arrival of the disease and its fullest extent.





> If necessary, ministers could deploy emergency martial law style powers under the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, although few think it will come close to being necessary.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 25, 2020)

The pressure of 'Do your job no matter what' will mean many "D'Oh!" moments: Hokkaido woman infected with coronavirus served lunch at local elementary school - The Mainichi

_The woman complained of a sore throat on Feb. 13 but worked the next day, and did not go to see a doctor until Feb. 15. Her two co-workers have been put on leave until the end of this month as a precautionary measure. 

A man in his 40s who lives in Chiba and works in Tokyo was also confirmed to have the virus. He began suffering from joint and muscle pain on Feb. 12 but went ahead with business trips to Hiroshima and Gifu prefectures, in western and central Japan, respectively. He traveled by shinkansen bullet train and occasionally by rental car during the trips, and developed a cough and fatigue on Feb. 14. _


----------



## sihhi (Feb 25, 2020)

> _The Department of Health believes it will be not until about May that it will be clearer what impact the virus is having on the UK, the rough estimated timescale between any initial arrival of the disease and its fullest extent._



How on earth can we guess now that May is its fullest extent? Why not April or June or  November?


----------



## sihhi (Feb 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> I see the Guardian have been talking to 'sources' and poking around the existing influenza pandemic plan.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Korea took the first approach for a while (no internal travel restrictions no cancellation of mass public gatherings) but is now having to make a massive retread

_Crowded places “are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic”. _

This is absurd to me. Not having cross-infection raises morale.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 25, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Korea took the first approach for a while (no internal travel restrictions no cancellation of mass public gatherings) but is now having to make a massive retread
> 
> _Crowded places “are an important indicator of ‘normality’ and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic”. _
> 
> This is absurd to me. Not having cross-infection raises morale.



Yeah, people dying will be severely bad for morale too.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 25, 2020)

The cases in Italy are fascinating, but my Italian is bad!








						L’ex muratore , gli anziani ricoverati: chi sono le vittime
					

L’anziano di Vo’ Euganio il primo percui il contagio è stato letale. La donna di casalpusterlengo visitata a Codogno e la malata di tumore




					www.corriere.it
				




I imagine it's possible staff or others at the hospital must have been unwittingly infected and spread it to yet others during his ten days at the hospital or until they tested him for COVID.

Can anyone translate this?


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 25, 2020)

sihhi said:


> The cases in Italy are fascinating, but my Italian is bad!
> http://[URL='https://www.corriere.i...6f6-11ea-b89d-a5ca249e9e1e.shtml[/URL[/COLOR]]
> 
> I imagine it's possible staff or others at the hospital must have been unwittingly infected and spread it to yet others during his ten days at the hospital or until they tested him for COVID.
> ...


Google translate:

*Coronavirus, who are the victims in Italy *
*  The elder of Vo 'Euganeo was the first for whom the infection was lethal.  The Casalpusterlengo woman visited in Codogno and the cancer patient *


 With four deaths today, Monday, coronavirus-related deaths in Italy rise to seven.  The news was confirmed by the head of Civil Protection Angelo Borrelli .  All the victims (except one) lived in the two outbreaks identified in Northern Italy and on which it was not possible to confirm a possible connection .  The Lombardy Region denied a seventh case (it concerned a Crema cancer patient admitted to Brescia).  The contagions do not stop at the moment and it is expected to assess whether the measures introduced in seven regions of Northern Italy will be able to limit the epidemic.  Here, however, are the patients who died positive for Covid-19.
 * Adriano Trevisan, 78 years old from Vo 'Euganeo (Padua) died on February 21st.  He had been hospitalized for about ten days at the hospital of Schiavonia (Padua) with a diagnosis of pneumonia.  Since he had never been to China, only a few days before his death he had been tested for coronavirus, a positive result.  Trevisan frequented a bar in his country together with a friend who in turn found positive.


 * A 75-year-old woman residing in Casalpusterlengo, one of the municipalities in the "red zone" of Lodigiano, dies on 22 February.  Fatal for the woman would have been a visit to the Codogno emergency room at the same time as the so-called "patient 1" was there, the thirty-eight-year-old from Codogno from whom the entire infection is believed to have started.  The swab on the virus was carried out post-mortem on the Casalpusterlengo woman.
 * Angela Denti, 68 , from Trescore Cremasco (Cremona) dies on Sunday at the Crema hospital.  She had a very compromised clinical picture : she was admitted to the oncology department with a diagnosis of cancer and had a heart attack shortly before her death.  Following a respiratory crisis, she had also been found positive for coronavirus.
 * An 84-year - old man from Villa di Serio died in Bergamo, at Papa Giovanni hospital: he had been transferred there from Alzano Lombardo hospital with a clinical picture already compromised and positive for coronavirus.
 * An 88-year-old man born in Caselle Landi and residing in Codogno is the fifth victim of the coronavirus in Italy.  The town of Lodigiano and is one of the ten centers included in the "outbreak" by the decree of the Ministry of Health and the Lombardy Region.
 * An 80-year-old man residing in Castiglione d'Adda ( one of the villages of the Lombard "red zone" ) died at the Sacco hospital in Milan.  Thursday he had been hospitalized for a heart attack at the hospital in Lodi.  Initially he had been hospitalized in resuscitation but a positive test result had been transferred to Milan.
 * A 62-year-old man residing in Castiglione d'Adda died in the afternoon at the Como hospital.  It is the seventh coronavirus-related victim in Italy.  Castiglione is also one of the municipalities included in the outbreak of the Lodigiano area.  Also in this case it is a patient who already suffered from other heart diseases and had to undergo dialysis.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 25, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Clinical trials take up the longest amount of time in vaccine development, so China will probably be able to shave at least a few months of the usual development time by experimenting on people in gulags.



From today’s headline article on BBC news website:


> The state-run Global Times reported that scientists had made progress on developing an oral vaccine, with a professor at Tianjin University taking four doses with no side effects.
> 
> But experts warn that until full clinical trials have taken place it is unclear how safe or effective the vaccines will be and it could still be months before they can be made widely available.



Whether it is this, or another vaccine, we could soon be in a position where there’s a working but as yet not fully tested vaccine and the dilemma will be how much testing should be untaken before making it widely available?  Are the risks of side effects worse than allowing the outbreak to continue and spread?

Maybe we will see more authoritarian countries giving a vaccine to their population to mitigate economic damage, while more western liberal countries hold back and follow the rules, with full clinical testing?


----------



## tommers (Feb 25, 2020)

Hancock saying you should self-isolate if you've been to northern Italy.


----------



## The39thStep (Feb 25, 2020)




----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

Iran claims 61 cases and 15 deaths so far.

If we assume the 2% mortality rate, which is probably too high, then that means there should be around 750 cases in Iran, and therefore 689 people who are currently/previously infected and they don't know about.

The 2% figure is _probably _too high, due to Chinese under-reporting/under-testing, meaning there could be way more than 1,000 in Iran infected and going about their business.

Surely the same is true for other countries like Italy, and now we see Tenerife is probably next.

I can't see how this can be anything but a full-blown pandemic now (and have thought that for a while, tbh).


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Iran claims 61 cases and 15 deaths so far.
> 
> If we assume the 2% mortality rate, which is probably too high, then that means there should be around 750 cases in Iran, and therefore 689 people who are currently/previously infected and they don't know about.



Your logic doesn’t take into account the time between infection and death, which is estimated to be at least three weeks. So your statement maybe should say “therefore there were a further 689 cases three weeks ago”. Since then, with each case transmitting to multiple other people and the resulting snowball effect, who knows how many cases today.  In fact only by looking at the number of deaths in three weeks time can you draw conclusions about the number of people who are infected today. 

This is why it’s wrong for people to be looking at the stats which show only 14 UK cases and concluding there’s no ongoing outbreak within UK.  It can be, and I would say it’s likely to be the case that there’s uncontrolled onward transmission happening in most countries now, and that we’ll only see the numbers which back that up in a few weeks time.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Your logic doesn’t take into account the time between infection and death, which is estimated to be at least three weeks. So your statement maybe should say “therefore there were a further 689 cases three weeks ago”. Since then, with each case transmitting to multiple other people and the resulting snowball effect, who knows how many cases today.  In fact only by looking at the number of deaths in three weeks time can you draw conclusions about the number of people who are infected today.
> 
> This is why it’s wrong for people to be looking at the stats which show only 14 UK cases and concluding there’s no ongoing outbreak within UK.  It can be, and I would say it’s likely to be the case that there’s uncontrolled onward transmission happening in most countries now, and that we’ll only see the numbers which back that up in a few weeks time.


Yep, I forgot to factor that in. Thanks!


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Yep, I forgot to factor that in. Thanks!



Not wanting to hammer the point too hard and make us even more depressed, but looking at the graph which traces cases in mainland China on the GIS Johns Hopkins tracker, on 23rd Jan there were 639 reported cases in China, so similar number to the one you inferred. Three weeks later 13th Feb there were 59.8k cases.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 25, 2020)

Holy hell. Cases found in Najaf, Iraq, schools and universities closed there for 10 days, health ministry urges avoiding conferences, celebrations & other public gatherings, urges everyone to avoid  travel to and from Najaf except for emergencies


----------



## existentialist (Feb 25, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Was it Dr Margaret Harris, who showed up representing WHO in this video from 4:00?  If so, I wouldn’t give any weight to her opinion as she seems to know nothing about anything. Half her answers in below interview were “we don’t know” and if they had simply interviewed a cucumber with “ we don’t know” printed on it, there would have been just as much useful info disseminated as a result.



TBF, I'd far rather a scientist admitted that they don't know something than that they simply pulled some explanation out of their arse so as to appear that they did know. That's conspiraloon country...pretending you have all the answers.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 25, 2020)

existentialist said:


> TBF, I'd far rather a scientist admitted that they don't know something than that they simply pulled some explanation out of their arse so as to appear that they did know. That's conspiraloon country...pretending you have all the answers.


i do have all the answers

but sometimes i forget where i have put them


----------



## Idris2002 (Feb 25, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Iran has a far more advanced healthcare system than most Westerners would believe, and despite crippling sanctions from USA. Life expectancy is 75-77, there are 1 million medical students in 51 schools and it has a comprehensive and developed pharmaceutical industry.


The Iranian lad at the next desk is saying that this is for real, and he attributes it to the Iran-Iraq war.

War, what is it good for?


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 25, 2020)

Idris2002 said:


> The Iranian lad at the next desk is saying that this is for real, and he attributes it to the Iran-Iraq war.
> 
> War, what is it good for?


it seems work have placed you and he alphabetically by nationality.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

Two schools close over coronavirus fears as pupils show flu signs
					

Two Cheshire schools have closed after students and staff returned from Italy




					www.liverpoolecho.co.uk


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

Chilli.s said:


> I was thinking plenty of hospital visits to cheer people up.


The Iranian Health Secretary has just confirmed he's infected - he's setting a good example for our politicians


----------



## sihhi (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> The 2% figure is _probably _too high, due to Chinese under-reporting/under-testing, meaning there could be way more than 1,000 in Iran infected and going about their business.



One could just as well say it is _probably_ too low.

Because for instance 1 out of 19 deaths were included in an outbreak at a nursing home, suggesting underreporting of deaths.





__





						Exclusive: Cluster of Death Found at Wuhan Nursing Home Near Seafood Market - Caixin Global
					

Exclusive: Cluster of Death Found at Wuhan Nursing Home Near Seafood Market - Among 19 fatalities since Dec. 23, Wuhan Social Welfare Institute reported 1 Covid-19 case though 10 others died from respiratory failure after fever symptoms



					www.caixinglobal.com
				




The medical research has stated 2.3% but possibly higher or lower. We don't know. We should nonetheless adopt the precautionary principle.


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> This is why it’s wrong for people to be looking at the stats which show only 14 UK cases and concluding there’s no ongoing outbreak within UK.  It can be, and I would say it’s likely to be the case that there’s uncontrolled onward transmission happening in most countries now, and that we’ll only see the numbers which back that up in a few weeks time.



Thanks for pointing this out clearly! 

That is the reason I thought I better do my look back on the start of the 2009 UK H1N1 outbreak when I did. If Scotland ends up detecting community transmission & cases before the rest of the UK then I will probably have something more to say about all that!

As for the numbers, I have no prediction of when exactly. Could start any day now, and then at some point the methods will change. I dont know how many tested & confirmed cases we will get before they change approach, some media reports suggest 100. So we are still likely going to have to infer things about the bigger picture from a small subset.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> As for the numbers, I have no prediction of when exactly. Could start any day now, and then at some point the methods will change. I dont know how many tested & confirmed cases we will get before they change approach, some media reports suggest 100. So we are still likely going to have to infer things about the bigger picture from a small subset.



No indication on whether hospitalised flu patients are being tested, right?


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

sihhi said:


> No indication on whether hospitalised flu patients are being tested, right?



No confirmation that I've found yet, but a few weeks ago Ferguson said it was happening (see my post #1,423 )


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

It doesn't seem surprising that only half (from above?) of people testing negative are actually free of the virus if symptoms take a while to show. Wouldn't that mean you'd have to quarantine everyone for a few days before testing them to be certain?


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

two sheds said:


> It doesn't seem surprising that only half (from above?) of people testing negative are actually free of the virus if symptoms take a while to show. Wouldn't that mean you'd have to quarantine everyone for a few days before testing them to be certain?



There are probably several reasons for false negatives. Its a big problem for sure, sometimes it may have made a mockery of quarantine approaches. I dont know what the approach is in the UK either, eg they have released daily info about number of tests performed, not number of people tested, so I dont know if some people have been tested multiple times.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

sihhi said:


> One could just as well say it is _probably_ too low.


I disagree with it being probably too low but see your point that it could be wrong either way.

The main thing is though, that regardless if it's too low or too high, the number of deaths in Iran point to many thousands infected by now.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> Where have you heard this?


In our press!


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

maomao said:


> Pick a shitty alt right site. Don't know how that tosser's still here.


We get this from time to time and it bothers me. I cant recollect how long Marty1 has been here for, whether they are a banned returned, are a massive Trump fan. 
I have not noticed any Trumpton behaviour from Marty1 but there have been a number of comments that dont say much. 

Can we bring it to a head please?


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

tommers said:


> Hancock saying you should self-isolate if you've been to northern Italy.



If they show symptoms.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> If they show symptoms.


Which they might not do, for weeks


----------



## tommers (Feb 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> If they show symptoms.



He gave two scenarios.  Northern Italy + symptoms or quarantined parts even without symptoms.

I couldn't be bothered to type it all out.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

Troops apparently surround an all inclusive complex in Tenerife after a guest was treated positive. Tenerife hotel locked down over coronavirus


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

tommers said:


> He gave two scenarios.  Northern Italy + symptoms or quarantined parts even without symptoms.
> 
> I couldn't be bothered to type it all out.



Thanks for the detail. Here is the BBC version of it.









						Coronavirus: Britons returning from northern Italy told to self-isolate
					

Several schools send pupils and staff home after they return from skiing trips in the country.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> Britons returning from northern Italy are being told to self-isolate in the UK if they show coronavirus symptoms.
> 
> Health Secretary Matt Hancock said people with flu-like symptoms who have been north of Pisa are asked to stay at home for 14 days.
> 
> ...


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

We can show the Chinese the Europeans can do repression.


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

If I sound unenthused about the UKs approach to containment or mitigation, its because traditionally such decisions here tend to err on the side of 'business as usual'.


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

This time might be different though, too early to tell. Just some tentative indicators at this stage, and it is always possible that Scotlands approach may vary from Englands.



> People could be banned from gathering in large numbers to contain coronavirus, Scotland’s chief medical officer has said.
> 
> Dr Catherine Calderwood looked to how cases have been dealt with in Italy, with football matches called off and church services in the affected regions cancelled .
> 
> ...



 2h ago 10:53


----------



## sihhi (Feb 25, 2020)

Iran Deputy Health Minister confirmed infected:


----------



## Flavour (Feb 25, 2020)

these containment efforts are all so futile. where i am all the schools are closed but all the kids are out anyway, hanging out together in the streets. what's the point?


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 25, 2020)

TopCat said:


> We can show the Chinese the Europeans can do repression.


we will be harmonised


----------



## sunnysidedown (Feb 25, 2020)

worth a read:









						You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus
					

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## sihhi (Feb 25, 2020)

Flavour said:


> these containment efforts are all so futile. where i am all the schools are closed but all the kids are out anyway, hanging out together in the streets. what's the point?



Where are you? 
The aim is to delay the spread, nearly all viruses spread better inside rather than outdoors.


----------



## Flavour (Feb 25, 2020)

piedmont, northern italy


----------



## sihhi (Feb 25, 2020)

Flavour said:


> piedmont, northern italy



Do what you can to inform non-essential workers or volunteers to stay indoors including kids, give the health service breathing space.


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> This is why it’s wrong for people to be looking at the stats which show only 14 UK cases and concluding there’s no ongoing outbreak within UK.  It can be, and I would say it’s likely to be the case that there’s uncontrolled onward transmission happening in most countries now, and that we’ll only see the numbers which back that up in a few weeks time.


Dont worry, there is a new method for detecting the presence of the virus. Just listen for the knock! 









						Italy measures against coronavirus strong, mission to Iran stalled - WHO
					

Italy has taken appropriate measures to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus, with the focus on halting further person-to-person transmission, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday.




					www.reuters.com
				






> The World Health Organization (WHO) called on countries on Tuesday to boost their readiness against coronavirus, saying the virus is “literally knocking at the door”.





> Many countries have “pandemic plans” ready and some may act upon them depending on their situation, but at the moment the WHO itself does not plan another “big announcement” such as when it declared an international emergency on Jan. 30, Lindmeier said.



In related news, I feel a rant about World Bank pandemic bonds coming on.


----------



## treelover (Feb 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> I see the Guardian have been talking to 'sources' and poking around the existing influenza pandemic plan.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




This is what I recieved, and a brief deceiphering of the reply from another official


pinkmonkey said:


> I remember it because my nephew had it aged just 8 weeks and was the youngest kid in Yorkshire to get it at that time. Tamiflu worked, but fucking hell it was scary at the time as he was very poorly.




One of our number here died from Swine Flue, though due to other complications,


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

treelover said:


> One of our number here died from Swine Flue


Who was that? I've seen it mentioned twice now, but don't remember this


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Who was that? I've seen it mentioned twice now, but don't remember this



Mark Wallace (mozaz, e19896) has died


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

Mozaz. Been a while since I remembered him. I'm smiling as I do.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

and he was e numbers?


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> Mark Wallace (mozaz, e19896) has died


Thanks. 


TopCat said:


> Mozaz. Been a while since I remembered him. I'm smiling as I do.


I remember him as eNumbers, but didn't know he died. I think I was on a bit of a break from Urban at the time. I think I remember he was sound.


----------



## Numbers (Feb 25, 2020)

Go on then, I’ll have an e


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

Sorry to ambush with this


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

Well getting back to the covid 19.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

Coronavirus: Tenerife hotel with hundreds of guests locked down
					

An Italian doctor staying at the hotel, which has hundreds of guests, tested positive on Monday.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

Police cordon.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

When do we think Urban75 will declare the outbreak a pandemic (by changing the thread title)?


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

Keep to your rooms. The buffet is closed. The Animation Team are indisposed.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

I bet there is some bargains now at the Blue Sea resort on Puerto  De La Cruz.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 25, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Well getting back to the covid 19.


 first there was ocean's 11, then there was the covid 19


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> When do we think Urban75 will declare the outbreak a pandemic (by changing the thread title)?


when the title's changed to 'cases triple as infection spreads to brixton and stockwell'


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> when the title's changed to 'cases triple as infection spreads to brixton and stockwell'


When travelling musicians are hindered by the piles of dead.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 25, 2020)

TopCat said:


> When travelling musicians are hindered by the piles of dead.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

But seriously. The patient zero in Tenerife was said to have been there for six days spreading the lurgy to a plethora of Europeans from all.over.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 25, 2020)

TopCat said:


> When travelling musicians are hindered by the piles of dead.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

I just get the impression that it's loose. Human to many human transmission is occurring. I'm a bit bothered having a pre existing condition.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

But I'm also hungry and have no beer in the house.


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 25, 2020)

TopCat said:


> I just get the impression that it's loose. Human to many human transmission is occurring. I'm a bit bothered having a pre existing condition.



Totally agree.  I just can't see how it can't be widespread already.  Also its fully understandable why anyone in a high risk group is worried.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 25, 2020)

Is there somewhere that lists what the UK approach is to arrivals from the various affected regions?


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

Is there a summary of how long it lasts on surfaces, how it can be killed (temperatures?), how to protect against transmission etc? A bit early to ask for the UK yet but worth knowing I think.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Is there a summary of how long it lasts on surfaces, how it can be killed (temperatures?), how to protect against transmission etc? A bit early to ask for the UK yet but worth knowing I think.


Really pertinent information that.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

How long does wiping you down with a bleached cloth protect me?


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

Well as I say i'm planning on just calling through the letter flap "I'm not coming out" but if I'm getting food/alcohol deliveries and they've been sneezed on .....


----------



## pesh (Feb 25, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Is there somewhere that lists what the UK approach is to arrivals from the various affected regions?


i think it basically involves UK Border Force holding their breath while checking their passports.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Is there somewhere that lists what the UK approach is to arrivals from the various affected regions?







__





						England Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK
					

Official Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease situation dashboard with latest data in the UK.




					www.gov.uk


----------



## Numbers (Feb 25, 2020)

TopCat said:


> But I'm also hungry and have no beer in the house.


I Knew there was a reason to begin collecting Rum many years ago.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

I did but I drank them all


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

TopCat said:


> I'm a bit bothered having a pre existing condition.


I'm trying to not to over-react given the low chance it'll affect me seriously, but I am concerned about the family. Mam's had cancer 3 times. Granddad has had pnuemonia and has some form of Asbestosis. This is dodgy for both of them.

I considered sending them some 'advice' but wondered if I might make it worse/make them panic.

What I would've said would be to expect/accept you're going to catch it. Most will(?) and it'll be just like a bad flu or possibly just an annoying cold if you're lucky.

Best thing to do is don't infect anyone else. Masks are pointless unless you've got it, so don't stress about those, they're useful if you go out though to keep others safe. Cough in tissues etc, and wash your hands regularly. And don't go to doctors etc unless told to.

Make sure to eat lots of fruit and veg and take multi-vits etc. Keep hydrated and get plenty of rest - you want your immune system to have the best chance possible of fighting this - so just be as 'healthy' as you can.

Garlic has been doing the rounds as a 'cure', and it's bollocks - to a certain extent. Garlic, in its raw form, defo has anti-viral properties. I can't imagine it'll do any harm to get some garlic tablets or to eat raw garlic on toast or whatever. Also, it tastes lush  There's probably other natural anti-virals that are worth looking into, but obviously aren't cures.

Make sure you have plenty of easy to cook food in, in case you're bed-bound for a bit. Painkillers, Lemsip etc, the usual.

Smoking is bad for you anyway, but as this is a respiratory disease, it might be worth trying extra hard to keep your lungs in tip-top shape over the next few weeks.

Nothing too drastic in there, but just a few things I think would be worth thinking about if you're high risk, IMO. Also I think fairly sensible advice for anyone else, too


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Thank you.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> I'm trying to not to over-react given the low chance it'll affect me seriously, but I am concerned about the family. Mam's had cancer 3 times. Granddad has had pnuemonia and has some form of Asbestosis. This is dodgy for both of them.
> 
> I considered sending them some 'advice' but wondered if I might make it worse/make them panic.
> 
> ...



I have had us on an enforced high vegetable diet containing a minimum of two heads of broccoli per day, plus raw garlic chopped and added to salads, and a lot of turmeric tea. Tried to get a lot of sunlight and exercise too. Also multi-vits, just in case we're missing anything in our ultra-healthy diet. Will go take my multivit now, thanks for the reminder!


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

Vitamin D I think is the main vitamin that's been demonstrated effective for resisting flu-like diseases, 1000 IU per day. Having said that I've been taking them for ages and I've just come down with an evil cold.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Cough in tissues etc, and wash your hands regularly. And don't go to doctors etc unless told to.



Cough or sneeze only into the crook of your elbow is better advice than doing it into a tissue held in your hand. Coughing into a tissue will still get your hands exposed to virus which you’ll deposit onto surfaces you touch (not likely you’re going to be able to wash your hands properly after each cough).  It’s kind of hard to touch any door handle or surface with the inside of your elbow, so no problem if you’ve left virus there after stifling a cough or sneeze using it.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Vitamin D I think is the main vitamin that's been demonstrated effective for resisting flu-like diseases, 1000 IU per day. Having said that I've been taking them for ages and I've just come down with an evil cold.


Remember vit D is fat-soluble, so make sure to follow the instructions properly (it'll probably say eat with a meal).

Or, alternatively, just eat loads of mushrooms for a better way of getting your daily amount 

Fry 'em in butter for the fat-soluble goodness


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

and (I learned from urban) you need vitamin K2 to absorb it properly unless you drink milk


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 25, 2020)

TopCat said:


> I just get the impression that it's loose. Human to many human transmission is occurring. I'm a bit bothered having a pre existing condition.



Have you got a support network close by that in a widespread domestic outbreak could do your shopping?


----------



## andysays (Feb 25, 2020)

TopCat said:


> When travelling musicians are hindered by the piles of dead.


I hear that And You Will Know Us By the Trail of Dead are going ahead with their current tour though...


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

Quoting for posterity. From the BBC live news page - we may not have an official pandemic declaration but its reached the stage of being worthy of live updates from the BBC.

My ridicule cannot be contained.




			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51628990


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

I believe it can still be contained, indeed only last night I ate a lot of cheese and had a dream that the war of the worlds happened in reverse, martians descended and killed the virus.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> I believe it can still be contained, indeed only last night I ate a lot of cheese and had a dream that the war of the worlds happened in reverse, martians descended and killed the virus.


i wonder what freud would make of that


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> i wonder what freud would make of that



I dont know but the president of Iran has aready warned against listening to my prophesy of the cheeses.



> "People should not pay attention to some bizarre comments in cyberspace and by hostile media outlets."



From the same BBC updates page as what I did just go on about earlier.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> president


Wrong president


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

Maybe we should start a rumour...cheese kills the virus. That's why there's been so many deaths in China but few elsewhere where cheese is more widely eaten.

Get your shares in place soon urbz, I'm about to unleash the hashtags on the world


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

Processed cheese will soon be back online in Iran.



> "From Saturday onwards, all processes would be as per normal in the country," he said. "If there is any special case, which the national HQ itself declares, then it would do so.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

Back to serious matters:

Japan's basically declared a pandemic: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...045570-5758-11ea-9000-f3cffee23036_story.html

They won't treat all cases, so expect a massive increase in infections, but lower figures reported


> TOKYO — Bracing for a surge in coronavirus cases, Japan announced a new policy on Tuesday designed to focus medical care on the most serious cases, while urging people with mild symptoms to treat themselves at home.
> It is radically different approach from that adopted by China, which has relied on locking down entire cities and keeping tens of millions of people virtual prisoners in their own homes, but it’s one that wins support from many medical experts.
> The basic premise is that the spread of the virus can’t be stopped, so efforts need to focus on slowing the pace of transmission and reducing mortality rates.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...






elbows said:


> Quoting for posterity. From the BBC live news page - we may not have an official pandemic declaration but its reached the stage of being worthy of live updates from the BBC.
> 
> My ridicule cannot be contained.
> 
> ...



I feel completely powerless, Russia has warned all citizens against any travel to all Italy.
The basic assumptions are wrong given that non-symptomatic period is the main vector of transmission.

WHO Mission to China



_Maybe most important (and bad) news: Aylward says mission found no evidence of lots of undetected mild #covid19 cases. That would mean percentage of severe cases and percentage of deaths we’re seeing now is real. Not what anyone wanted to hear. _

Another Iranian MP is positive.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

Australia has released its pandemic strategy document, all but declaring the P-word itself: How will Australia respond if the coronavirus outbreak becomes a pandemic?



> “The most crucial (and overdue) risk communication task for the next few days is to help people visualise their communities when ‘keeping it out’ – containment – is no longer relevant. The P word is a good way to launch this message.”


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Back to serious matters:
> 
> Japan's basically declared a pandemic: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...045570-5758-11ea-9000-f3cffee23036_story.html
> 
> They won't treat all cases, so expect a massive increase in infections, but lower figures reported



Japen has been interesting. I expected their official numbers to be an especially poor reflection of the likely reality there, and they have lived up to my expectations on that front. But they have simultaneously managed to construct a somewhat honest and timely public message about likely community spread there, and helped me get my own timing right via their 'new phase' comments which are about 10 days old at this point.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

sihhi said:


> _Maybe most important (and bad) news: Aylward says mission found no evidence of lots of undetected mild #covid19 cases. That would mean percentage of severe cases and percentage of deaths we’re seeing now is real. Not what anyone wanted to hear. _


if that's true, then ~2% of predicted 70% infection rate worldwide = 109 million deaths.

Would be one of the worst pandemics ever.


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Australia has released its pandemic strategy document, all but declaring the P-word itself: How will Australia respond if the coronavirus outbreak becomes a pandemic?



Oh that quote is from the same stuff from risk assessment bods that I mentioned the other day. The ones that prompted comment about 'who elected them' to which I responded who elected me.


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> if that's true, then ~2% of predicted 70% infection rate worldwide = 109 million deaths.
> 
> Would be one of the worst pandemics ever.



I havent had a chance to check out Bruces stuff today from the WHO China mission yet. But I will need to, because for example the rate in Wuhan has not been seen in the rest of China yet, so I'm still not going to use 2% as a working assumption.


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

> The popularity of half-term skiing trips in Lombardy has seen at least 12 schools across the UK either close or send pupils home today, after updated advice from Public Health England widened the regions affected by Covid-19 to include northern Italy.
> 
> The 10 schools hit so far, including one in Wales and three in Northern Ireland, appear to have all travelled to ski resorts via Milan’s airports, close to one of Italy’s virus hotspots.



 43m ago 16:00


----------



## sihhi (Feb 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> I havent had a chance to check out Bruces stuff today from the WHO China mission yet. But I will need to, because for example the rate in Wuhan has not been seen in the rest of China yet, so I'm still not going to use 2% as a working assumption.



A comprehensive article issued yesterday on cases so far looking at has fatality rate at 2.3%. The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China—Summary of a China CDC Report


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 25, 2020)

A member of the IOC has said that if things are not under control in Japan by May, the Tokyo Olympics could be cancelled.









						International Olympic Committee member says Tokyo 2020 could face 'cancellation' if coronavirus isn't under control by May
					

If coronavirus isn't under control, the Olympics are too big and have too many moving parts to change locations or delay the games.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

Did I read earlier in the thread that someone in authority in Japan said doctors didn't need to take precautions against catching it - or did I hallucinate that? I hope I did hallucinate it, otherwise not much chance of getting it under control by May I wouldn't have thought unless everyone will have caught it by then.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 25, 2020)

This is not good news.



> Cransley School in Northwich, Cheshire, and Trinity Catholic College, Middlesbrough, took the decision following advice for Britons returning from northern Italy to self-isolate.
> 
> *Cransley head teacher Richard Pollock said some pupils on the trip to Bormio were "showing flu-like symptoms".*











						Coronavirus: Two schools shuts as pupils return from Italy trips
					

Schools in Cheshire and Middlesbrough close after pupils show "flu-like symptoms" after skiing trips.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Kilgore Trout (Feb 25, 2020)

sihhi said:


> A comprehensive article issued yesterday on cases so far looking at has fatality rate at 2.3%. The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China—Summary of a China CDC Report



They report on ages 20-29 and then 30-79. 30-79 is a pretty broad age range. I would have thought over 65ish was relevant.


----------



## NoXion (Feb 25, 2020)

So we can partly blame Typhoid Tarquin and his poncey school skiing trips for crowning this now-septic isle?


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 25, 2020)

NoXion said:


> So we can partly blame Typhoid Tarquin and his poncey school skiing trips for crowning this now-septic isle?


Farmers markets and ski trips - it's Classwar 2: Germ Warfare


----------



## Supine (Feb 25, 2020)

I'm not calling the p word yet but I am starting to think about what I'd do if I caught it. 

Problem is I work away from home 27-28 days per month. If I went home I'd be in close proximity to my mum who is 78. I'm thinking I'd need to go home and pack her off to stay with my sister. Can't see I could stay in hotels for two weeks while ill.


----------



## Supine (Feb 25, 2020)

I'm not calling the p word yet but I am starting to think about what I'd do if I caught it. 

Problem is I work away from home 27-28 days per month. If I went home I'd be in close proximity to my mum who is 78. I'm thinking I'd need to go home and pack her off to stay with my sister. Can't see I could stay in hotels for two weeks while ill.


----------



## mauvais (Feb 25, 2020)

At least all is well on the German/Italian border.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 25, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Is there a summary of how long it lasts on surfaces, how it can be killed (temperatures?), how to protect against transmission etc? A bit early to ask for the UK yet but worth knowing I think.



We were wondering about this earlier. I recall someone earlier in the thread wondering if the virus could stay active on surfaces for up to 9 days. (might have been me!) Anyhow we are starting to receive air freight from China now - which only takes a few days. Our feeling was that the carrier companies wouldn't be permitted to ship boxes if they could be also be transmitting the virus. 



two sheds said:


> Vitamin D I think is the main vitamin that's been demonstrated effective for resisting flu-like diseases, 1000 IU per day. Having said that I've been taking them for ages and I've just come down with an evil cold.


Oh, good I take lots of vitamins, perhaps I will be immune yay  off shortly to have a fruit blend!!


----------



## weltweit (Feb 25, 2020)

dp


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

sihhi said:


> _Maybe most important (and bad) news: Aylward says mission found no evidence of lots of undetected mild #covid19 cases. That would mean percentage of severe cases and percentage of deaths we’re seeing now is real. Not what anyone wanted to hear. _



I have endured listening to a rather tired but interesting Bruce Aylward for ages, and he finally got to this point just before opening up to questions. I have paused watching it for now and can expand on what he said about this point.

He mentioned the fog of war. He mentioned people talking about the tip of the iceberg, and suggested that actually he hadnt seen evidence of huge community transmission beyond that which could be seen clinically. He mentioned existing influenza-like illness sentinel surveillance systems and how when China went back to look, these didnt show anything of the Covid-19 outbreak in November or December, but did in January, but only in certain locations, not nationally. He also gave an example of a location where they tested 320,000 people and had positive rates of 0.49% that later fell to 0.02%

But, crucially, he went on to mention a topic that came up earlier in this thread on a number of occasions - serology surveys. Thats where you sample the population and look for signs of past covid-19 infection in their blood, rather than looking for cases that are infected with the virus at that moment in time. And he said that China has now just started doing these tests. So then he joked that maybe in a weeks time he will be sitting here giving a different picture about how widespread mild cases have actually been.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 25, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> if that's true, then ~2% of predicted 70% infection rate worldwide = 109 million deaths.
> 
> Would be one of the worst pandemics ever.


ouch


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> We were wondering about this earlier. I recall someone earlier in the thread wondering if the virus could stay active on surfaces for up to 9 days. (might have been me!) Anyhow we are starting to receive air freight from China now - which only takes a few days. Our feeling was that the carrier companies wouldn't be permitted to ship boxes if they could be also be transmitting the virus.
> 
> 
> Oh, good I take lots of vitamins, perhaps I will be immune yay  off shortly to have a fruit blend!!



1000 IU is quite a high dose - higher than you'd get in normal vits I think. I get these Vitabiotics Ultra Vitamin D3 Optimum Level – 96 Tablets (although I get mine from different supplier - these look cheaper, but need to consider postage too).


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

The latest BBC piece on whether this is pandemic or not had a bit at the end that made me shout at my screen.



> Officials now say the WHO will not formally "declare" a pandemic for the new coronavirus, though the term may still be used "colloquially".
> 
> In 2009, the organisation was criticised when it declared swine flu a pandemic.
> 
> ...



A mild pandemic is still a pandemic. They were slow to announce it, not too hasty. The problem, apart from the politics and economics of the matter, is that a lot of pandemic planning was setup with assumptions about disease severity built in, and so there were various aspects where the pandemic planning was a poor fit for what the world actually ended up having to deal with.

I would be delighted if we had the same problem this time. Its more likely to be the opposite problem though, especially as China took various extreme measures to get things to the stage they are at there now, and also have some interesting capacity and surge capacity in their healthcare systems. The likes of Bruce Aylward were clearly in awe of how many ventilators and ECMO machines they had at a single hospital. If the UK and other countries do little of the containment that China did, then given the limited capacity of our healthcare systems there could be a very bad situation. I just hope the 2009 pandemic didnt introduce complacency, because in partnership with austerity things could get very grim.


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)




----------



## Artaxerxes (Feb 25, 2020)

elbows said:


>




Unless your Muslim


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

The test kits that have recently been approved:





__





						Antibody test kits for rapid novel coronavirus detection approved in China
					





					www.ecns.cn


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

colloidal gold eh  

good news though


----------



## Supine (Feb 25, 2020)

mauvais said:


> At least all is well on the German/Italian border.
> 
> View attachment 199813



Germany doesn't have a land border with Italy


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

two sheds said:


> colloidal gold eh
> 
> good news though



Unlike the number of deaths in Italy. They are up to 11 already.


----------



## NoXion (Feb 25, 2020)

A "mild pandemic" sounds like being "a little bit pregnant".


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

Well the word pandemic does not say much about disease severity, so these other words are tacked on to describe that side of things.

Meanwhile the US CDC are taking their own approach to public comms.



> "It's not so much a question of if this will happen in this country any more but a question of when this will happen," Dr Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunisation and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD), said.
> 
> "We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad."





			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51628990


----------



## Supine (Feb 25, 2020)

It's looking like a shame that Trump sacked the entire pandemic response leadership team at the CDC and never replaced them   









						Trump Has Sabotaged America’s Coronavirus Response
					

As it improvises its way through a public health crisis, the United States has never been less prepared for a pandemic.




					foreignpolicy.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

I wonder if there was some petty bureacratic argument about the UK cruise ship cases being added to the main UK total.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 25, 2020)

I wonder how many of the tests were the same person being tested more than once?


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I wonder how many of the tests were the same person being tested more than once?



I asked that earlier but I note that today they have changed the wording of the daily report to say people instead of tests.


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

DexterTCN said:


> I don't think there have been any Americans so far.   They'd (the US) probably want to get their hands on a couple.











						NIH clinical trial of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 begins
					

Study enrolling hospitalized adults with COVID-19 in Nebraska.




					www.nih.gov
				






> A randomized, controlled clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized adults diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has begun at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) in Omaha. The trial regulatory sponsor is the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health. This is the first clinical trial in the United States to evaluate an experimental treatment for COVID-19, the respiratory disease first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.





> The first trial participant is an American who was repatriated after being quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that docked in Yokohama, Japan and volunteered to participate in the study. The study can be adapted to evaluate additional investigative treatments and to enroll participants at other sites in the U.S. and worldwide.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 25, 2020)

Supine said:


> It's looking like a shame that Trump sacked the entire pandemic response leadership team at the CDC and never replaced them
> 
> 
> 
> ...



According to Trump America is well prepared with everything under control regarding the Coronavirus

But - I think we can expect to see the Coronavirus situation being heavily used against the Trump administration by the Dems as there next method of attack, moving on from recent impeachment attempt and prior Russian coercion attempt to remove him from office.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> According to Trump America is well prepared with everything under control regarding the Coronavirus
> 
> But - I think we can expect to see the Coronavirus situation being heavily used against the Trump administration by the Dems as there next method of attack, moving on from recent impeachment attempt and prior Russian coercion attempt to remove him from office.



How do you feel about this quote from above?



> For the United States, the answers are especially worrying because the government has intentionally rendered itself incapable. In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. In numerous phone calls and emails with key agencies across the U.S. government, the only consistent response I encountered was distressed confusion.



and 



> In the spring of 2018, the White House pushed Congress to cut funding for Obama-era disease security programs, proposing to eliminate $252 million in previously committed resources for rebuilding health systems in Ebola-ravaged Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Under fire from both sides of the aisle, President Donald Trump dropped the proposal to eliminate Ebola funds a month later. But other White House efforts included reducing $15 billion in national health spending and cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. And the government’s $30 million Complex Crises Fund was eliminated.



You think criticisms of this are just party politics?


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

The politics of pandemics is about far more than what opposition parties make of it. Trump will be worried about the populace as a whole turning on his administration. And most of all I expect he worries that its going to fuck his sales pitch. Bragging about the economy is a big part of his routine. He will come out with a new framing of events if they reach a certain point, and the framing may be very ugly, he will either find someone to blame or he will say very odd things.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> According to Trump America is well prepared with everything under control regarding the Coronavirus
> 
> But - I think we can expect to see the Coronavirus situation being heavily used against the Trump administration by the Dems as there next method of attack, moving on from recent impeachment attempt and prior Russian coercion attempt to remove him from office.



Channeling Rush Limbaugh now - bit of a surprise 









						Rush Limbaugh: “The coronavirus is an effort to get Trump”
					






					www.mediamatters.org


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)




----------



## 2hats (Feb 25, 2020)

mauvais said:


> At least all is well on the German/Italian border.


"If it did break out it would probably occur in Eastmanstown in the upper cataracts on the Australio-Hong Kong border".


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 25, 2020)

two sheds said:


> How do you feel about this quote from above?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I’d say his statement could turn out to be bluster.

Trump is currently applying for $2.5 billion to fight Coronavirus, some of which would come from unspent Ebola contingency money, but looks like some are saying it’s not enough, not just Dems but Republicans who are dubbing this virus as a ‘black swan’.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 25, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Channeling Rush Limbaugh now - bit of a surprise
> 
> 
> 
> ...



If you look back in this thread and the Trump thread you will see I predicated this suggestion before the article you link and it’s subject matter.

Sorry to piss on your chips.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> I’d say his statement could turn out to be bluster.
> 
> Trump is currently applying for $2.5 billion to fight Coronavirus, some of which would come from unspent Ebola contingency money, but looks like some are saying it’s not enough, not just Dems but Republicans who are dubbing this virus as a ‘black swan’.



What's bluster? He's reporting that Trump fired the entire pandemic chain of command, with "other White House efforts included reducing $15 billion in national health spending and cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. And the government’s $30 million Complex Crises Fund was eliminated.  "

makes the $2.5 billion look a bit small. So it's not just Dems who are concerned - but but but you said the Dems would use it against him.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> If you look back in this thread and the Trump thread you will see I predicated this suggestion before the article you link and it’s subject matter.
> 
> Sorry to piss on your chips.



Hardly the point - you're channelling the same stuff as a batshit insane far-right republican. Pissing on your own chips there.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 25, 2020)

two sheds said:


> What's bluster?



Trumps comment that he has the situation under control.

Slow down and try to digest replies rather than looking for your zinger moment.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

So the dems will be quite right in their criticism of what he's done? Unlike your first statement.


----------



## Dan U (Feb 25, 2020)

Jamaica refuses to accept cruise ship passengers over coronavirus fears
					

Passengers on board MSC Meraviglia says the ship has been detained in Ocho Rios as health inspectors assess the risk as the cruise company apologise to their guests



					www.mirror.co.uk


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 25, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Hardly the point - you're channelling the same stuff as a batshit insane far-right republican. Pissing on your own chips there.


 
Not at all, the shock DJ in the article has also stated that Coronavirus is no worse than the flu and has a near full recovery rate, which is patently not the case.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

"An effort to get Trump" is pretty much what you said the Dems will use it for.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 25, 2020)

two sheds said:


> So the dems will be quite right in their criticism of what he's done? Unlike your first statement.



I think it’s been clearly proven that the Dems are prepared to do anything to remove Trump from office, Russia collusion hoax, impeachment amongst many others.

As to whether the Dems will be justified in attacking Trump on his preparedness for this virus - that remains to be seen how this will pan out over there, but they may well be very justified.  Even if Trump does keep it under control - history has already proved that the Dems will use it to their political advantage no matter what.


----------



## sunnysidedown (Feb 25, 2020)

fuck off you boring cunt


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> I think it’s been clearly proven that the Dems are prepared to do anything to remove Trump from office, Russia collusion hoax, impeachment amongst many others.
> 
> As to whether the Dems will be justified in attacking Trump on his preparedness for this virus - that remains to be seen how this will pan out over there, but they may well be very justified.  Even if Trump does keep it under control - history has already proved that the Dems will use it to their political advantage no matter what.



I was going to say that indeed the Dems are generally crap, but you do love trump right or wrong don't you  but sunnysidedown was much more succinct.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 25, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I was going to say that indeed the Dems are generally crap, but you do love trump right or wrong don't you  but sunnysidedown was much more succinct.



Yeah, the Dems are shit and possibly tank the US economy worse than a pandemic could do.

I think American politics at present is more entertaining than Netflix  but I’m not obsessed like others seem to be with Trump.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 25, 2020)

Anyone saying they consider Trump should be president of the US needs their heads examined whether trolling or not.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 25, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> I think it’s been clearly proven that the Dems are prepared to do anything to remove Trump from office, Russia collusion hoax, impeachment amongst many others.
> 
> As to whether the Dems will be justified in attacking Trump on his preparedness for this virus - that remains to be seen how this will pan out over there, but they may well be very justified.  Even if Trump does keep it under control - history has already proved that the Dems will use it to their political advantage no matter what.



No more fantasist wibble on this thread please.


----------



## MrSki (Feb 25, 2020)

The boring little cunt can't believe he has not been banned & is just pushing it further on the threads he is not already banned from.


----------



## kropotkin (Feb 25, 2020)

We in secondary care are fully expecting it to become a pandemic. My colleague and I were discussing it today- she wants to get it ASAP. Reason being that early adopters will have recourse to ITU if they get sick. If it really takes hold there will be no high-level care beds left if late or midwave victims get sick. Happy thoughts.


----------



## elbows (Feb 25, 2020)

Regarding the possible percentage of infection...


----------



## editor (Feb 25, 2020)

Apols if already posted but it's worth a read









						You’re Likely to Get the Coronavirus
					

Most cases are not life-threatening, which is also what makes the virus a historic challenge to contain.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 25, 2020)

Bit of a mixed message here:



> Dr MacDermott said that despite a high risk of the virus spreading throughout Europe, travel bans were not the solution. “With land borders and freedom of movement it does increase the potential for cases to cross borders, who don’t even realise they’re unwell yet or infected yet,” she said.



So open borders Europe poses a high risk, but travel bans aren’t the solution?









						Confusion for Britons as coronavirus spreads through Europe — The Times and The Sunday Times
					

British travellers faced confusion over the coronavirus outbreak as the health secretary suggested he would not go to northern Italy despite the chief medical officer saying that there was no reason to avoid the area. Matt Hancock said that he had “no plans” to travel to the region, where 11...




					apple.news


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 25, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Bit of a mixed message here:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Travel bans will likely cause more harm than good.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 25, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Travel bans will likely cause more harm than good.



In what way?  I’d have thought restricting travel would help containment.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 25, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> In what way?  I’d have thought restricting travel would help containment.



You tell us. Think about it.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 25, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> You tell us. Think about it.



Im not making that assertion - you are.

In your own time.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 25, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Im not making that assertion - you are.
> 
> In your own time.



If you’re going to be dick on this thread leave.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Feb 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> The politics of pandemics is about far more than what opposition parties make of it. Trump will be worried about the populace as a whole turning on his administration. And most of all I expect he worries that its going to fuck his sales pitch. Bragging about the economy is a big part of his routine. He will come out with a new framing of events if they reach a certain point, and the framing may be very ugly, he will either find someone to blame or he will say very odd things.


  Something I have been thinking about for a while - the politics of “pandemics” or more specifically, this one.  It will be weaponised by those focused enough to make capital from it , irrespective of the actual body count


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> The politics of pandemics is about far more than what opposition parties make of it. Trump will be worried about the populace as a whole turning on his administration. And most of all I expect he worries that its going to fuck his sales pitch. Bragging about the economy is a big part of his routine. He will come out with a new framing of events if they reach a certain point, and the framing may be very ugly, he will either find someone to blame or he will say very odd things.



The blame game has already softly started - Mike Pompeo the US Secretary of State has just given a press conference in which he has criticised censorship in China of the Coronavirus spreading in part due to the expulsion of WSJ journalists.

Pompeo is claiming these journalists were booted out by China to prevent transparency as to the real situation unfolding with the virus and that this has had unnecessary consequences in getting accurate data and information on the situation.

Think I’ve read articles claiming China has tried to keep a lid on reporting of this in the early onset of the outbreak.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 26, 2020)

Centers of Disease Control (CDC) is now advising Americans to start preparing before Coronavirus takes a foothold.









						Coronavirus outbreak is coming to U.S. and it 'could be bad,’ CDC says
					

The thinking has changed. A coronavirus pandemic could actually hit the U.S., federal health officials say.




					www.nj.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

sihhi said:


> No indication on whether hospitalised flu patients are being tested, right?



OK there is now info about this:









						PHE introduces new surveillance system for early coronavirus detection - Latest Pharmacy News | Business | Magazine - Pharmacy Business
					

If you want to share your stories and/or experiences with us, please send an email to editor@pharmacy.biz




					www.pharmacy.biz
				






> Public Health England (PHE) today announced a new surveillance system for early detection of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19.
> 
> Part of the efforts to strengthen the existing systems and to prepare for and prevent wider transmission of the virus, the new system will be implemented in intensive care units and Severe Respiratory Failure (ECMO) Centres of some NHS hospitals.
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

*








						Sickest patients 'facing hours stuck on trolleys'
					

BBC analysis shows a surge in hospital delays as experts warn 'little in tank' to cope with coronavirus.




					www.bbc.co.uk
				




*


> Experts warned there was "little in the tank" to cope with the coronavirus.
> 
> There is mounting concern that the spread of the virus will lead to a pandemic with mass outbreaks in the UK.
> 
> The BBC research - based on analysis of NHS England data - found the delays faced by some of the frailest and sickest patients have risen sharply this winter.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 26, 2020)

This is quite a good basic summary - everything has I think been covered by elbows and Supine and people 









						Covid: How well do face masks protect us against the virus?
					

How effective are face masks?




					www.independent.co.uk
				




Facemasks more to protect other people once you've got it than to prevent getting it. 



> If people are worried about contracting infectious diseases there are more effective measures to be taken says Dr Dunning including “good personal, respiratory and hand hygiene”.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## spring-peeper (Feb 26, 2020)

This not the one I was looking for, but it will do



Washing with soap and water is the best way to clean your hands.

Canadian  Health and Safety has revised their hand washing procedure.
It used to be that you had to use hot, hot water - as hot as you can handle.
It has been revised, cold water does just as good job.

I was taught it was the soap that cleansed your hand, water temperature has no influence.
Glad my teacher was right.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 26, 2020)

Thats why I refuse to touch the manky germ-vector keyboards at work.  At least the germs on my laptop keyboard are my germs, not those of some filthy toerag of a colleague who doesnt wash their hands after a shit.


----------



## IC3D (Feb 26, 2020)

If the virus is in aerosol form you can it up on your eyes so a mask is useless.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 26, 2020)

IC3D said:


> If the virus is in aerosol form you can it up on your eyes so a mask is useless.



But a mask plus a pair of wrap-around face hugging Ray Bans is set to become this year’s trendy look!


----------



## Ax^ (Feb 26, 2020)

news this morning that ski holiday are to blame for the downfall of western Europe


not sure I'm that surprised really


----------



## Chilli.s (Feb 26, 2020)

Having had swine flu about 10 years ago, caught in a school, I'm aware that this has potential to get nasty. I can't see the nhs in its half starved present state being able to cope and it could be overwhelmed. Then sitting it out at home becomes the only option. Getting a stack of tinned food, bog roll, paracetamol and cough syrup doesn't seem too dum anymore.


----------



## Poot (Feb 26, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> In what way?  I’d have thought restricting travel would help containment.


Restricting travel would be pointless. You would have to ban it completely. And that wont happen.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 26, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> This not the one I was looking for, but it will do
> 
> View attachment 199834



"For our next experiment, we decided to see if the Chromebook mold was an effective antibiotic."


----------



## TopCat (Feb 26, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I was going to say that indeed the Dems are generally crap, but you do love trump right or wrong don't you  but sunnysidedown was much more succinct.


Hilary loves are the same trash.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 26, 2020)

Supine said:


> I'm not calling the p word yet but I am starting to think about what I'd do if I caught it.
> 
> Problem is I work away from home 27-28 days per month. If I went home I'd be in close proximity to my mum who is 78. I'm thinking I'd need to go home and pack her off to stay with my sister. Can't see I could stay in hotels for two weeks while ill.



I work in schools and am self-employed. If schools start closing I'm fucked.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 26, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> I work in schools and am self-employed. If schools start closing I'm fucked.


schools have started closing









						Chaos and confusion over coronavirus in UK schools
					

Public Health England is not advising schools to close but headteachers  have taken action after some staff and students came down with 'mild flu-like symptoms' after returning from the Alps.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## not-bono-ever (Feb 26, 2020)

Chevron London sent some of its its worker drones home after suspected infection .


----------



## ska invita (Feb 26, 2020)

Will the coming of spring and temperatures going up help?


----------



## TopCat (Feb 26, 2020)

Canary Wharf offices in lockdown after worker suffers coronavirus symptoms
					

American oil giants Chevron advised staff to work from home until the employee's test results come back.




					metro.co.uk


----------



## not-bono-ever (Feb 26, 2020)

Risk wise, I view colder winters / hotter summers as a better bet for minimal disruption than mediocre versions of each season. If that makes sense.


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> I have endured listening to a rather tired but interesting Bruce Aylward for ages, and he finally got to this point just before opening up to questions. I have paused watching it for now and can expand on what he said about this point.
> 
> He mentioned the fog of war. He mentioned people talking about the tip of the iceberg, and suggested that actually he hadnt seen evidence of huge community transmission beyond that which could be seen clinically. He mentioned existing influenza-like illness sentinel surveillance systems and how when China went back to look, these didnt show anything of the Covid-19 outbreak in November or December, but did in January, but only in certain locations, not nationally. He also gave an example of a location where they tested 320,000 people and had positive rates of 0.49% that later fell to 0.02%
> 
> But, crucially, he went on to mention a topic that came up earlier in this thread on a number of occasions - serology surveys. Thats where you sample the population and look for signs of past covid-19 infection in their blood, rather than looking for cases that are infected with the virus at that moment in time. And he said that China has now just started doing these tests. So then he joked that maybe in a weeks time he will be sitting here giving a different picture about how widespread mild cases have actually been.



An article covering the main point he made, which has drawn much skeptical attention. Sadly the article did not cover the remarks he made that gave him some wiggle room. This is why I sometimes have to watch press conferences myself, although this was the first time I felt the need to do so in regards Covid-19.









						New data from China buttress fears about high coronavirus fatality rate, WHO expert says
					

A WHO expert who visited China said he did not see evidence that a large number of mild #coronavirus cases are evading detection, meaning its lethality has likely not been exaggerated.




					www.statnews.com


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 26, 2020)

ska invita said:


> Will the coming of spring and temperatures going up help?


Yes, it should help a bit. But not loads, I wouldn't think.

1) Flu and cold season is called that for a reason - once flus and cold cases die down for the year, it'll be more obvious when someone has C19, whereas now it could be any one of a number of seasonal viruses causing your cough etc.
2) I never used to believe this, but apparently being cold does affect your ability to catch viruses. It's to do with mucus clearance speeds in the nose etc. Cold means it hangs about longer, meaning anything trapped in the mucus (viruses, for instance) have longer to get into your body
3) If you're warmer, you'll be outside more, meaning not in close confinement with lots of other people. Although this also means you're probably coming into contact with a greater number of new people, so potential to spread is greater. Not sure on this one whether it's balanced out or tips one way...

I'm sure there's other factors. Availability of food might be one. Winter = less fresh fruit and veg. Also less Vitamin D from sun, which someone said up thread is important for fighting infections.


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

Oh god. Another press conference I will probably have to watch.


----------



## Callie (Feb 26, 2020)

How many people think their workplace would be able to shut down for a couple of weeks or advise working from home?

I think we could run a skeleton staff rota but have to have people working to process samples e.g. for influenza testing  some people in the dept could potentially work from home but we don't have enough laptops with access to do so!


----------



## ska invita (Feb 26, 2020)

Callie said:


> How many people think their workplace would be able to shut down for a couple of weeks or advise working from home?


would financially fuck many a precarious small business, particularly ones reliant on the public coming through the door


----------



## 2hats (Feb 26, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> I'm sure there's other factors. Availability of food might be one. Winter = less fresh fruit and veg. Also less Vitamin D from sun, which someone said up thread is important for fighting infections.


Also a lot less UV in the environment to help limit virion longevity.


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

Reuters are reporting these comments on their live page:



> "Using the word pandemic carelessly has no tangible benefit, but it does have significant risk in terms of amplifying unnecessary and unjustified fear and stigma, and paralyzing systems. It may also signal that we can no longer contain the virus, which is not true."  -World Health Organization chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus











						Coronavirus | Reuters
					

A deadly virus spreads around the globe, killing and infecting millions.




					www.reuters.com
				




Their stance is understandable but quite doomed and counterproductive at this point. At this stage you do not reduce fear and panic by railing against the word pandemic. Not when so many media and national disease control authorities have said a pandemic is almost inevitable. All they are doing with this is creating a vacuum for others to fill, and making themselves less relevant. 

They may well have maintained consistency in their own message, but overall they are just adding to the mixed messages from different countries and different authorities. Their instincts in regards limiting the infodemic are flawed, largely because of the range of political, diplomatic, economic and practical considerations they have to try and balance. 

I shall have to review their approach in the fullness of time. To judge conclusively now would be a mistake, as there are more twists and turns to come.


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)




----------



## dylanredefined (Feb 26, 2020)

Relax. Everything is under control. I  have just spent the morning putting up posters telling people to wash their hands.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 26, 2020)

I was amazed taking my mother for a hospital appointment on Monday that no questions were asked about any recent travel/holidays to Covid-19 hot-spots, despite loads of other questions about various possible infections, including if she had caught anything during her many recent hospital stays, such as MRSA.

I posted this on another thread...



cupid_stunt said:


> I was amazed yesterday when my mother was asked if she had lived or worked aboard in the last 12 months, bearing in mind she's 85 & in a wheelchair, I joked she had just got back from her job as a gym instructor in Wuhan, and was shocked when they laughed & said, 'oh, we haven't been told to ask any questions on that subject.'


----------



## sihhi (Feb 26, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Travel bans will likely cause more harm than good.



I think if no travel ban, quarantin e must be instituted the incubation-infective period is too long to leave to chance with a shrug of the shoulders.
Goods can travel but people, in general, should *not*.


----------



## kalidarkone (Feb 26, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Vitamin D I think is the main vitamin that's been demonstrated effective for resisting flu-like diseases, 1000 IU per day. Having said that I've been taking them for ages and I've just come down with an evil cold.


I take 10000 iu 5x a week between October and May-due to not being white/working 12 hour shifts/nightshifts/being fairly reclusive.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 26, 2020)

That's sensible, hadn't thought of just taking it in winter.


----------



## kalidarkone (Feb 26, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> We in secondary care are fully expecting it to become a pandemic. My colleague and I were discussing it today- she wants to get it ASAP. Reason being that early adopters will have recourse to ITU if they get sick. If it really takes hold there will be no high-level care beds left if late or midwave victims get sick. Happy thoughts.


Yep have to fight for a post op ITU bed as it is and that was before coronavirus!


----------



## kalidarkone (Feb 26, 2020)

two sheds said:


> That's sensible, hadn't thought of just taking it in winter.


I take it all year round but just half in between may and September. But I'm slightly concerned you might not be taking enough.


----------



## kalidarkone (Feb 26, 2020)

Poot said:


> Restricting travel would be pointless. You would have to ban it completely. And that wont happen.


Also people would still travel but in more unorthodox ways and less known routes meaning that the spread of the virus would be even harder to trace and monitor.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 26, 2020)

Possibly - particularly with having picked up a couple of nasties this winter. I saw 1000 IU was the recommended dose though.


----------



## kalidarkone (Feb 26, 2020)

I've just whatsapped my mate who went to Italy at the weekend -can't remember where in Italy she was going but it was to enjoy hot springs. She is someone with several chronic conditions......she may have to isolate herself when back.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 26, 2020)

Just to add a little optimism to the debate:









						COVID-19 Vaccine Shipped, and Drug Trials Start
					

A vaccine and a drug against COVID-19 are closer to human testing




					time.com
				




Time magazine is reporting that a proposed vaccine is heading for testing in the USA.

Now I don't know how long testing is usually, nor if it is successful how long after that to have volume production, but a proposed vaccine going into testing has to be good news.


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Just to add a little optimism to the debate:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



We'll all be dead or immune by the time they get anything to market, the way it is spreading.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 26, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> We'll all be dead or immune by the time they get anything to market, the way it is spreading.


Now now Teaboy, I was being positive


----------



## weltweit (Feb 26, 2020)

I see the news are saying today there have been more new infections detected outside China than in.


----------



## Supine (Feb 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Just to add a little optimism to the debate:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The Moderna product is completely new so will start with Phase 1 clinical trials on a small number of healthy people. It would then progress to phases that involve ill people.

The second product mentioned remdesivir is much further down the path to approval so would be quicker to utilise. That American trial mentioned is in addition to a larger scale trial which is already underway in China - with results expected on April 25th I think. This is viewed as the most promising drug and is already getting manufactured in China - without Gilliad approval presumably.


----------



## prunus (Feb 26, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> We'll all be dead or immune by the time they get anything to market, the way it is spreading.



Coronavirus acquired immunity tends to be time-limited (a few tens of months) so in all likelihood the survivors of this round will need it in a few years time.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 26, 2020)

Heard today that a few schools nearby had trips away to northern Italy over the midterm. 
All back and went straight to school. 🙄

But the same situation happened up north and the pupils were told to stay at home for 14 days. 

😮


----------



## sihhi (Feb 26, 2020)

Similar situation as to Italy as in France, healthy 60 year old man hospitalised due to flu symptoms last week situation worsens transfered to another hospital as his situation gets worse, only after about 7 days is coronavirus suspected and a sample is taken for testing.

Died last night due to large pulmonary embolism.









						Coronavirus : le malade décédé est un enseignant originaire de l’Oise
					

Cet homme de 60 ans, un premier temps hospitalité à Creil, avait été transféré en urgence mardi à la Pitié-Salpêtrière, à Paris.




					www.leparisien.fr
				




« Son infection a été découverte à la fin de son séjour », souligne un membre de l'hôpital de Compiègne. Pendant plusieurs jours, il a donc été en contact avec le personnel des urgences et du service de réanimation de Compiègne.

His infection was only discovered at the end of his hospital stay, stresses a member of the Compiegne hospital. Over several days, he was thus in close contact with A+E staff and ICU staff in Compiegne. Thus these staff in all likelihood must be quarantined and tested and their contacts chased which again in all likehood will be other poorly patients.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 26, 2020)

The news again, in the Vatican the Pope held his normal prayers with thousands and afterwards pressed the flesh apparently as if everything was normal.


----------



## Ax^ (Feb 26, 2020)

make mental note to get the messages  in the morning before the world ends


----------



## two sheds (Feb 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The news again, in the Vatican the Pope held his normal prayers with thousands and afterwards pressed the flesh apparently as if everything was normal.



Chicken pox parties


----------



## vanya (Feb 26, 2020)

The CoVID-19 coronavirus belongs to the same family as many of the viruses that cause the common cold. It’s got similar properties — it’s highly transmissible from one human respiratory system to another, and causes an upper respiratory infection that, in some cases, turns into pneumonia and becomes serious. Quite a few people who catch it show no symptoms at all or have an ordinary cold — mild fever, runny nose, you know the score. The great majority of the people who’ve died from it were very old, were in bad health already, or worked themselves to exhaustion. (This happens to doctors routinely in epidemics.)

At this point it looks as though it’s going to become a global pandemic, meaning that most people will be exposed to it. If you’re old, sick, or immunocompromised, or if you work in a health care field that will be involved in treating cases, you could be at serious risk. Otherwise, treat it as you would a case of the flu. Don’t use health care facilities when the epidemic is moving through your community, unless you absolutely have to — they’ll be working overtime to deal with the people who need serious medical help. Also, remember that this is a normal part of life; most people in most periods of history have had to deal with epidemics that were much, much worse.


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

More about the UKs new approach to surveillance.









						New surveillance system for early detection of COVID-19
					

Public Health England (PHE) and the NHS establish a new surveillance system to detect cases of COVID-19.




					www.gov.uk
				






> There is no current evidence to show that the virus is circulating in the community in England, but internationally there is evidence of wider transmission of the virus in areas outside of China, most recently Italy and South Korea.
> 
> This new surveillance strategy will enable PHE to identify early evidence of spread within England, if this occurs.



In other words, there wasnt any evidence because we werent looking for any, and have now decided to look.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> More about the UKs new approach to surveillance.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Bit like no news is good news?


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Bit like no news is good news?



Sort of, yes. Anyway its been a major theme of mine here recently. Because we were already in a phase where it was important to do this wider surveillance (I would have run it since the start of Feb at least), and there are historical examples of looking the other way for a while at such a stage. I am very glad that they have switched stance because it means I dont have to keep going on about it anymore, at least not in the context of the UK and that particular type of surveillance.


----------



## Cid (Feb 26, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Possibly - particularly with having picked up a couple of nasties this winter. I saw 1000 IU was the recommended dose though.



Christ I had a deficiency and I've only been prescribed 800IU 1/day. Admittedly after a 12 week massive dose (though that was once a week). Can't remember what that was though.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 26, 2020)

I've been taking that for almost a year now and it's all gone fine. Apart from the infection of course


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 26, 2020)

I got the flu jab last year and have been off work for over a week now with strong head cold


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> Sort of, yes. Anyway its been a major theme of mine here recently. Because we were already in a phase where it was important to do this wider surveillance (I would have run it since the start of Feb at least), and there are historical examples of looking the other way for a while at such a stage. I am very glad that they have switched stance because it means I dont have to keep going on about it anymore, at least not in the context of the UK and that particular type of surveillance.



Oh and its not always about looking the other way deliberately. Its also about the sort of prioritisation and rigidity that might be experienced when adhering to certain forms of bureaucratic systems.

It is understandable that a very narrow set of priorities might receive all of the attention and resources during first few phases, especially when capacity (including testing capacity) is still being ramped up and protocols tweaked.

I suppose I can live with that as long as there are common sense overrides in decision making available, so that bureacratic rigidity does not extent for such long periods of time that the entire thing becomes clearly absurd to everyone.

In this case, the obvious community spread in parts of Italy triggered a new assessment of where things were at. So they have at least avoided a fresh absurdity, and so far I have only been treated to the classic absurdities which I already anticipated and droned on about for weeks. And the discovery of spread around the world has happened so quickly that there hasnt been time for very many weeks of extreme ostrich head-burying or credibility-reducing denials.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 26, 2020)

I don't _want_ anyone to die from Covid19 but if it has to take people, how about Gwyneth Paltrow makes up some of that 2%?

She's a cunt, she sells woo to protect against serious problems, and she's now even joking about it and wearing masks as a fashion accessory:









						Gwyneth Paltrow jokes about Contagion as she debuts mask on flight
					

Gwyneth Paltrow made a funny joke about her role in the film Contagion amid coronavirus fear as she covered her face on a trip to Paris




					www.mirror.co.uk
				




Also, she was in Contagion, so all of this would make her a deeply ironic/amusing person to be bumped off


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

I wonder if there was disagreement about which age to put in the following sentence from the new WHO guide to getting your workplace ready for Covid-19. Resulting in a mistake in the current version 1.2



> Risk of serious illness rises with age: people over 40 seem to be more vulnerable than those under 50.





			https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/getting-workplace-ready-for-covid-19.pdf


----------



## Cid (Feb 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> I wonder if there was disagreement about which age to put in the following sentence from the new WHO guide to getting your workplace ready for Covid-19. Resulting in a mistake in the current version 1.2
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That's um... Well. 

I wonder how viable it is to set up as one of those reclusive hunter types you find in the arse end of Canada/Norway etc?


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/getting-workplace-ready-for-covid-19.pdf



By the way anyone that has ever quite rationally started wondering about surfaces as a transmission vector, and has been dissatisfied with the lack of emphasis on such things in advice they have been given, stands a good chance of feeling vindicated if they take a quick look at that guide.


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

A little more on the dodgy US political situation in regards this outbreak. 

I expect this sort of erosion of faith in various aspects of the state is the sort of thing some planners have nightmares about when considered in the context of a major disease outbreak.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 26, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I think if no travel ban, quarantin e must be instituted the incubation-infective period is too long to leave to chance with a shrug of the shoulders.
> Goods can travel but people, in general, should *not*.



I know it seems logical but these scenarios have been gamed and modelled.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> A little more on the dodgy US political situation in regards this outbreak.
> 
> I expect this sort of erosion of faith in various aspects of the state is the sort of thing some planners have nightmares about when considered in the context of a major disease outbreak.






> “Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty.” —Hannah Arendt, “The Origins of Totalitarianism”



Interesting quote - definitely happening in the US and also starting now in the UK with Johnson & Cummings.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 26, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Interesting quote - definitely happening in the US and also starting now in the UK with Johnson & Cummings.



Yup. The resignation of the vaguely competent Javid in favour of some nobody was a key moment in this process. For the same reason I see no prospect of halfwits like Raab and Patel being removed from their posts any time soon. For this reason drawing attention to their failures may be the wrong tactic, just as it was with attempts to stop Johnson himself. It's all a feature, not a bug as far as organ grinder Cummings is concerned.


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

I'm quoting this for posterity.



> *Analysis: The challenge of playing down panic*
> Philippa Roxby
> Health reporter, BBC News
> 
> ...





> The message from officials at the World Health Organization is that containment is still possible and a global pandemic is not inevitable.
> 
> This view has been echoed in the UK where the government has warned of the social and economic costs of overreacting in response to the outbreak.
> 
> ...



From BBC live update page at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51628990


----------



## sihhi (Feb 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> I'm quoting this for posterity.
> 
> From BBC live update page at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51628990


Grim.



Part-timah said:


> I know it seems logical but these scenarios have been gamed and modelled.


They've been modelled on less infectious viruses not ones like this.

Every infectee can infect very many even taking an average not a long (14 day or more) incubation period of 7 days - a lot of time to go shopping, work and socialise and infect others.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 26, 2020)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health
		


Reports that Samsung donates £14.6m, to help fight the coronavirus outbreak. The South Korean company is the latest to pledge money to help with the outbreak. Big US firms including Microsoft, Dell and Cargill have already donated, along with Chinese giant Alibaba.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health
> 
> 
> 
> Reports that Samsung donates £14.6m, to help fight the coronavirus outbreak. The South Korean company is the latest to pledge money to help with the outbreak. Big US firms including Microsoft, Dell and Cargill have already donated, along with Chinese giant Alibaba.



Peanuts.

This is from 2010, can anyone explain the current state of play in Britain? How many intensive care beds are there?

_Critical care experts say there may be as few as 3.5 intensive care beds per 100,000 people in the UK, compared with more than 24 per 100,000 in Germany._


----------



## weltweit (Feb 26, 2020)

sihhi said:


> ..
> _Critical care experts say there may be as few as 3.5 intensive care beds per 100,000 people in the UK, compared with more than 24 per 100,000 in Germany._


I don't know the current state of play but I did see (perhaps on here) that the question was asked about a Chinese hospital, how many ventilators do you have to which the answer was 60 …. wonder how many we have on average here?


----------



## spring-peeper (Feb 26, 2020)

Pages  ago, I posted about the folks in Cornwall, Ontario.  Cornwall is about 35 minutes from here. The residents were upset that the people of the cruise ship would be quarantined near their town for two weeks.  

Well, medical professionals told them that precautions taken will ensure the town is safe. 

The building that they are housed in is in a separate wing of the convention center.  The people delivering food are NOT the regular staff, and there is absolutely no contact between the staff and those confined.

Not good enough!!!

Some parents are pulling their children out of schools and daycares.  The children of the workers at Nav-Canada are in the schools and daycares.  When questioned about pulling their children, the response is usually along the lines of, "What!!!  Do you think I want my child to die???  I shall keep them home and safe."

Slight over reaction, imo.


On the bright side, I skimmed an article about telling people to start stocking up with non-perishables.
I thought that was a cute suggestion.  It is winter, and we are supposed to stock up in case of a mega snow storm.
I stocked up today, we are supposed to get 40-50 cm of snow.


----------



## Raheem (Feb 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I don't know the current state of play but I did see (perhaps on here) that the question was asked about a Chinese hospital, how many ventilators do you have to which the answer was 60 …. wonder how many we have on average here?


Bet an urban hospital in China services a much larger population than a typical NHS hospital, though.


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

!!!!


----------



## 2hats (Feb 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> !!!!


I'll see that and raise you:


Fortunately later on on Newsnight there are some more measured voices after that headline grabbing opener.


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2020)

Trump found a way to brag about the USA being the best prepared country, and appointed Pence to lead a cross-governmental team.


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 26, 2020)

There's no way I can attempt seventy pages of thread  , but can I ask how much thread-comment has there been about (UK) paranoia and mega-media hype? I'm asusming some ...

Dare I confess that my own, and deb's, panic-levels here on South Wales are utterly minimal?  

I should also emphasise though, that I sympathise *lots*, and genuinely, with anyone who's really needing to be concerned about their own corona-health and/or that of their loved ones ...


----------



## Raheem (Feb 27, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> There's no way I can attempt seventy pages of thread  , but can I ask how much thread-comment has there been about (UK) paranoia and mega-media hype? I'm asusming some ...
> 
> Dare I confess that my own, and deb's, panic-levels here on South Wales are utterly minimal?
> 
> I should also emphasise though, that I sympathise *lots*, and genuinely, with anyone who's really needing to be concerned about their own corona-health and/or that of their loved ones ...


I don't think there's that much hysteria at large, but I also think we're at a point where everyone has been thinking 'we've been here before' and now it's starting to look like somewhere we haven't been. 

Not sure the realisation that the problem may actually be spreading into the first world can be counted as hysteria, though.


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 27, 2020)

Cheers for that  ....  I'll try to get up to speed with this thread when I've time 

(or at least with the last five or ten pages or so!  )


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 27, 2020)

Apologies for the Daily Star but: Man collapses coughing in Canary Wharf as London on coronavirus alert


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I think if no travel ban, quarantin e must be instituted the incubation-infective period is too long to leave to chance with a shrug of the shoulders.
> Goods can travel but people, in general, should *not*.



I agree.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> I know it seems logical but these scenarios have been gamed and modelled.



You given yourself enough time to cobble a coherent answer together other than some headline you’ve skimmed over yet?


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Another BBC piece where it is no surprise to see which bit I am zooming in on.









						Coronavirus: What next in the UK coronavirus fight?
					

The UK's plan to tackle coronavirus has been changing. What's the latest and what's happening next?



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> *Could schools be closed and freedoms curtailed?*
> Under the Civil Contingencies Act, the government can close schools, shut down public transport and stop mass gatherings to protect the public.
> 
> But all the evidence suggests those measures are not particularly effective at stopping the spread of something like coronavirus.
> ...



All the evidence eh? Despite what the WHO were just trying to suggest Chinas draconian actions may have done?


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> You given yourself enough time to cobble a coherent answer together other than some headline you’ve skimmed over yet?



Why do you think you’re wiser and more experienced in infectious disease control than infectious disease authorities?


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Supine said:


> The Moderna product is completely new so will start with Phase 1 clinical trials on a small number of healthy people. It would then progress to phases that involve ill people.



Watching one of the other people speaking at Trumps press conference, I got the impression they had previous misspoken about the timescale for this vaccine and were correcting themselves today.

A year to 18 months was the correction. I havent gone looking for the original misleading statement, Im assuming they were bragging about how quickly things got to this stage with that vaccine, and how long the next phase will take, and left the wrong overall impression.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)




----------



## spring-peeper (Feb 27, 2020)

elbows said:


>





and so it begins.....


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> All the evidence eh? Despite what the WHO were just trying to suggest Chinas draconian actions may have done?



I should really make clear that I'm only pointing out obvious contradictions. I still dont really have any way to know which of these very different pictures is going to turn out to be the most accurate, which kind of response will be the most sensible.

I suppose the main reason I tend to revert to sneering at the 'dont do very much' strategy is that even when full containment is completely futile, really strong mitigation might make the difference between flattening and stretching out the epidemic curve in order to reduce burden on healthcare services, and having a sharp wave with a burden that is way too hefty.

But its especially hard to make judgements on this without knowing the true magnitude of undetected infections in key countries to date. That stuff can still make between one and several orders of magnitudes difference in fatality rate and proportion of severe cases. And that in turn changes the balance between economic & societal disruption and doing enough to fight the outbreak.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Here is an example of how one expert sees that dilemma.



I included it as an image because its a pain in the arse collating those tweets right now, but here is the first tweet in proper twitter form for anyone that wants to read it that way:


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Why do you think you’re wiser and more experienced in infectious disease control than infectious disease authorities?



I don’t, I’m referring to the same question I asked you yesterday which you seemed to go out of your way at avoid.

But I’ll leave it there as I think you didn’t have a clue  what you were talking about then other than parroting a headline or now when you’ve read up a little.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2020)

Thanks to the tories for this Independent headline:  

*UK hospitals to deny care to weakest if pandemic hits          *
 
Panels of ‘wise men’ set to decide who gets lifesaving treatment against coronavirus









						Weakest patients could be denied lifesaving coronavirus care due to lack of NHS funding, doctors admit
					

Exclusive: Senior doctors criticise government's 'dishonest spin' over ability of NHS to cope with a severe pandemic outbreak




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> I don’t, I’m referring to the same question I asked you yesterday which you seemed to go out of your way at avoid.
> 
> But I’ll leave it there as I think you didn’t have a clue  what you were talking about then other than parroting a headline or now when you’ve read up a little.



You are an idiot. You are also disrupting an important thread,


----------



## spring-peeper (Feb 27, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> You are an idiot. You are also disrupting an important thread,




I guess it would be optimistic to hope s/he gets banned from this thread.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

Looks like the EU is politicising Coronavirus rather than taking strong preventative containment efforts.









						Coronavirus Nightmare Could Be the End for Europe’s Borderless Dream (Published 2020)
					

The crown jewel of the E.U., its network of open internal borders, has been hit hard by the refugee crisis. The virus could deliver another blow.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 27, 2020)

Cid said:


> Christ I had a deficiency and I've only been prescribed 800IU 1/day. Admittedly after a 12 week massive dose (though that was once a week). Can't remember what that was though.


I was prescribed 20,000IU a day for about ten days, then once a week for several weeks when my levels were found to be seriously low.  It made my arthritis hurt.


----------



## Celyn (Feb 27, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> We'll all be dead or immune by the time they get anything to market, the way it is spreading.



"Don't panic, Mr. Mainwaring! Don't panic! Don't panic!"


----------



## ice-is-forming (Feb 27, 2020)

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has moved Australia into pandemic mode, as the coronavirus spreads to 42 countries across the world.









						It will be a pandemic: Scott Morrison warns Australians to prepare for coronavirus
					

The PM has jumped ahead of the World Health Organisation, moving Australia into pandemic mode against COVID-19.




					7news.com.au
				




Well it's been announced as a pandemic here. It's hard to think about because I have a son who is immunocompromised, but for that very reason I have to think about it..


----------



## bimble (Feb 27, 2020)

I’m worried now for my parents , they are quite old and live in Ticino right next to Italian border. There’s nothing I can think of to suggest they do though, apart from come stay with me and that’s no kind of solution.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 27, 2020)

This would be a proper downer if it turns out to be true









						Coronavirus: Fears of two-phase infection as recovered Japan patient tests positive
					

A woman working as a tour-bus guide in Japan has tested positive for the Covid-19 coronavirus for a second time, raising fears of a "bi-phasic" infection pattern similar to anthrax.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## TopCat (Feb 27, 2020)

My gf is in Vietnam. notifiable country now?


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 27, 2020)

Hope she's OK over there TC.  Don't know what the situation is like in Vietnam but I guess they must have a few cases given how close they are to China.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 27, 2020)

TopCat said:


> My gf is in Vietnam. notifiable country now?





> If you have returned from these areas since 19 February and develop symptoms, however mild, you should stay indoors at home and avoid contact with other people immediately and call NHS 111. You do not need to follow this advice if you have no symptoms.
> 
> northern Italy (anywhere north of Pisa, Florence and Rimini)
> Vietnam
> ...


----------



## andysays (Feb 27, 2020)

If I was someone with a compromised immune system, I would be inclined to minimise contact with anyone who has recently returned from a high risk area, regardless of current symptoms.

Which may be easier said than done, of course


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> This would be a proper downer if it turns out to be true
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yep, saw that. Might also raise a question as to whether immunization will be effective.


----------



## ska invita (Feb 27, 2020)

What's the difference between this and swine and avian flu?


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 27, 2020)

ska invita said:


> What's the difference between this and swine and avian flu?


This one is from bats via pangolins and is not flu.


----------



## ska invita (Feb 27, 2020)

fishfinger said:


> This one is from bats via pangolins and is not flu.


Is it more severe? I don't remember quite the same sense of scale of reaction on those ones. (I think I had swine flu btw. Certainly was ill for over two weeks and self isolated)


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 27, 2020)

It's more contagious than swine flu but probably less lethal.


----------



## LDC (Feb 27, 2020)

fishfinger said:


> It's more contagious than swine flu but probably less lethal.



Depends on your age group and/or co-morbidities. For older and/or sicker people it's not odds I'd fancy taking.


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 27, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Depends on your age group and/or co-morbidities. For older and/or sicker people it's not odds I'd fancy taking.


I'm in a few of the vulnerable groups 😟


----------



## LDC (Feb 27, 2020)

fishfinger said:


> I'm in a few of the vulnerable groups 😟



I'd be taking some time to think about what to do if things progress if I was in one of those groups.


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 27, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I'd be taking some time to think about what to do if things progress if I was in one of those groups.


What good would that do?
You either catch it or not. And if you catch it, you'll either live or die.


----------



## Dogsauce (Feb 27, 2020)

I’m immunocompromised due to my crohns medication, so a bit scared by it all. Also work in a school so tend to be a bit of a disease magnet anyway, since starting there in September I’ve had a four month chest infection (round 4 of antibiotics finally shifted it), a six-day stomach bug that the rest of the family were all clear of in about 36 hours, and currently in bed with shingles. Immune system taking a battering, don’t fancy my chances against Covid-19. If the shingles lasts long enough maybe I will be off work and in hiding when it passes through anyway.


----------



## Dogsauce (Feb 27, 2020)

& I guess all those Brexit food stockpiles people built up might come in handy after all.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 27, 2020)

The outbreak in Italy was clearly going to start spreading across Europe, and it's now been confirmed that 2 people who returned from Italy and Tenerife have tested positive in the UK, bringing the total to 15.









						Coronavirus: School and GP surgery shut as new UK cases confirmed
					

A primary school and a GP surgery announce they have closed because of a confirmed case of coronavirus.




					news.sky.com
				




Sadly, I fear a lot more cases over the coming days.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

Just read a very depressing article speculating that this virus could possibly infect 60% of the world population


----------



## pinkmonkey (Feb 27, 2020)

My mate/fellow freelance work colleague went on Umraah last week, first Madina, then to Mecca, where she is now. She’s super paranoid so as well as ordering knee pads from Amazon, for all of that praying, she ordered face masks for everyone. She’s not wrong is she?https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51655133


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 27, 2020)

TopCat said:


> My gf is in Vietnam. notifiable country now?





andysays said:


> If I was someone with a compromised immune system, I would be inclined to minimise contact with anyone who has recently returned from a high risk area, regardless of current symptoms.
> 
> Which may be easier said than done, of course



Yeah TopCat what andysays is my thinking as well.  Given your currant predicament I would suggest that you don't see your g/f for 14 days after she comes back regardless of whether she has any symptoms.  Going to be a real shitter but it seems like the best thing to do.

I'm off to Cambodia tomorrow and I'm already letting relevant people know that I won't be seeing them for at least 14 days upon my return.


----------



## LDC (Feb 27, 2020)

fishfinger said:


> What good would that do?
> You either catch it or not. And if you catch it, you'll either live or die.



Erm, whether you catch it or not depends partly on what you do, how you behave, etc. And whether you live or die will depend on a whole host of factors, some within your control. You make it sound like what happens is just random or fate.


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 27, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Erm, whether you catch it or not depends partly on what you do, how you behave, etc. And whether you live or die will depend on a whole host of factors, some within your control. You make it sound like what happens is just random or fate.


Of course we can, and should take precautions to minimise chance of infection but unfortunately, there are no guarantees.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

fishfinger said:


> It's more contagious than swine flu but probably less lethal.



I think you have got confused somewhere along the line. That statement is rather unlikely to be true. Death rate for swine flu were estimated to be just 0.02%


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 27, 2020)

I stand corrected.


----------



## Numbers (Feb 27, 2020)

Dogsauce said:


> I’m immunocompromised due to my crohns medication, so a bit scared by it all. Also work in a school so tend to be a bit of a disease magnet anyway, since starting there in September I’ve had a four month chest infection (round 4 of antibiotics finally shifted it), a six-day stomach bug that the rest of the family were all clear of in about 36 hours, and currently in bed with shingles. Immune system taking a battering, don’t fancy my chances against Covid-19. If the shingles lasts long enough maybe I will be off work and in hiding when it passes through anyway.


May I ask what medication?  I’m currently taking mesalazine for diverticulosis.


----------



## Artaxerxes (Feb 27, 2020)

Numbers said:


> May I ask what medication?  I’m currently taking mesalazine for diverticulosis.



Azathiropone at a minimum for crohns.

I’m also on allopurinol to supplement it.


----------



## wayward bob (Feb 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> By the way anyone that has ever quite rationally started wondering about surfaces as a transmission vector...











						Douglas Adams right again: Lack of phone sanitizers will doom planet
					

As you doubtlessly remember, somewhere in the Hitchhiker’s Guide series Mr. Adams told the story of the The Golgafrinchans, a race of people who sent their Telephone Sanitizer population away…




					collateraldamage.wordpress.com


----------



## sihhi (Feb 27, 2020)

All of Japan's schools now ordered closed from Monday until the spring holidays the second week of April.


----------



## pesh (Feb 27, 2020)

it was a bit mad watching Trumps Corona Presser last night, he went on for so long the information he was giving out went out of date... bigging up the containment policy saying it was working perfectly while the Washington Post was tweeting about the first case of unknown origin being discovered in northern California.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The news again, in the Vatican the Pope held his normal prayers with thousands and afterwards pressed the flesh apparently as if everything was normal.











						Pope cancels visit with Rome priests for 'slight' illness
					

VATICAN CITY (AP) — Pope Francis is sick and skipped a planned Mass with Rome clergy across town on Thursday, officials said. The Vatican said the 83-year-old pontiff had a “slight indisposition" and would proceed with the rest of his planned work on Thursday...




					apnews.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

pesh said:


> it was a bit mad watching Trumps Corona Presser last night, he went on for so long the information he was giving out went out of date... bigging up the containment policy saying it was working perfectly while the Washington Post was tweeting about the first case of unknown origin being discovered in northern California.



He managed to stay roughly on message during the prepared speech but veered off a number of times during the Q&A. He was going on about Ebola causing people to disintegrate again.

They probably wanted to have that sort of press conference before the possible community spread case was revealed. That case had been in a hospital since Feb 19th and if I read properly had also been ventilated at a previous hospital before being transferred. https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article240682311.html


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

sihhi said:


> All of Japan's schools now ordered closed from Monday until the spring holidays the second week of April.



I just hope these sorts of actions by other countries lead to more scrutiny of our own approach.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> I just hope these sorts of actions by other countries lead to more scrutiny of our own approach.



Have you heard anything about a (fiction) book published in 1981 by Dean Koontz called ‘The Eyes of Darkness’?

Apparently it eerily ‘predicts’ this Coronavirus outbreak though in the book the virus is referred to as ‘Wuhan-400’.

Maybe one for the tinfoilers but very strange nonetheless.


----------



## ska invita (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Have you heard anything about a (fiction) book published in 1981 by Dean Koontz called ‘The Eyes of Darkness’?
> 
> Apparently it eerily ‘predicts’ this Coronavirus outbreak though in the book the virus is referred to as ‘Wuhan-400’.
> 
> Maybe one for the tinfoilers but very strange nonetheless.


no








						Was Coronavirus Predicted in a 1981 Dean Koontz Novel?
					

A speculative anticipation of a possibility is very different than a 'prediction.'




					www.snopes.com
				




Here are a few things this “prediction” gets wrong:


In Koontz’s novel, “Wuhan-400” is a human-made weapon. The coronavirus, on the other hand, was not. 
In the novel, “Wuhan-400” has a 100% fatality rate. While researchers are still learning about the coronavirus, the current fatality rate sits at about 2%. 
The fictional “Wuhan-400” has an extremely quick incubation period of about four hours, compared to COVID-19 which has an incubation period between two and 14 days. 

But there’s more bad news for this prediction. 

While the page from Koontz’s novel displayed above is genuine, other iterations of this book used a different name for the fictional biological weapon. In fact, when we searched a 1981 edition of this book available via Google Books we found no references to “Wuhan.” In that edition, this biological weapon is called “Gorki-400” after the Russian city where it was created. 

https://www.snopes.com/tachyon/2020/02/gorki-400.png


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Have you heard anything about a (fiction) book published in 1981 by Dean Koontz called ‘The Eyes of Darkness’?
> 
> Apparently it eerily ‘predicts’ this Coronavirus outbreak though in the book the virus is referred to as ‘Wuhan-400’.
> 
> Maybe one for the tinfoilers but very strange nonetheless.



It was apparently a Russian virus called "Gorki-400" in the original and Koontz changed it to a Chinese virus after the end of the Cold War.









						China wasn’t original villain in book ‘predicting’ coronavirus outbreak
					

Much has been made of Dean Koontz’s 1981 book The Eyes of Darkness which appeared to have predicted the recent coronavirus outbreak – but in the original version the villain was Russia, not China.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## ska invita (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Just read a very depressing article speculating that this virus could possibly infect 60% of the world population


Fake Democrat news. We should Build A Wall around whoever wrote that article and Lock Them Up


----------



## Dogsauce (Feb 27, 2020)

Numbers said:


> May I ask what medication?  I’m currently taking mesalazine for diverticulosis.



I’m on the biological stuff, adlimumab injections, plus azothioprine. Been on both for more than a decade, although used to have a different biological via infusion rather than injection.

Before I started working in a school I was pretty resilient, rarely getting coughs and sneezes when they were going round work. It’s like my immune system has given up now, or been overwhelmed. Might also be getting things brought home by my kids (one at preschool, one with childminder a couple of days a week).


----------



## Dogsauce (Feb 27, 2020)

60% of world‘s population with what is it, about 1% mortality? That’s quite a lot of bodies.

if you’re fit and well try and get it now before the healthcare system is overwhelmed.


----------



## andysays (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Just read a very depressing article speculating that this virus could possibly infect 60% of the world population





Marty1 said:


> Have you heard anything about a (fiction) book published in 1981 by Dean Koontz called ‘The Eyes of Darkness’?
> 
> Apparently it eerily ‘predicts’ this Coronavirus outbreak though in the book the virus is referred to as ‘Wuhan-400’.
> 
> Maybe one for the tinfoilers but very strange nonetheless.



Please stop posting this shit or I will ask for you to be banned from the thread


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 27, 2020)

I already posted this on another thread, but relevant here. Interesting five minute interview with Prof Neil Ferguson of J-Idea on Radio 4 today programme this morning (first mentioned by hash tag). Begins at 2:12:40









						Today - 27/02/2020 - BBC Sounds
					

News and current affairs, including Sports Desk, Weather and Thought for the Day.




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

I dont know where 60% comes from, the widely quoted figure from one expert was 40-70%, and the following previous post by me shows him updating his stance so that the 40-70% relates only to adults, and only when there are no effective controls.

           #2,002


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Have you heard anything about a (fiction) book published in 1981 by Dean Koontz called ‘The Eyes of Darkness’?
> 
> Apparently it eerily ‘predicts’ this Coronavirus outbreak though in the book the virus is referred to as ‘Wuhan-400’.
> 
> Maybe one for the tinfoilers but very strange nonetheless.


I don't know why people take any notice of this kind of thing. It's not a prediction nor is it strange in any way. It's a coincidence. 
Is anyone seriously suggesting that scifi novelist Dean Koontz can predict the future?


----------



## sihhi (Feb 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> I just hope these sorts of actions by other countries lead to more scrutiny of our own approach.



I am going to write an email to the Health Secretary & Public Health England urging stronger and proactive nonpharmaceutical interventions.

I urge a read of this article about differing responses to the previous world pandemic in 1918, very stats heavy

_The first cases of disease among civilians in Philadelphia were reported on September 17, 1918, but authorities downplayed their significance and allowed large public gatherings, notably a city-wide parade on September 28, 1918, to continue. School closures, bans on public gatherings, and other social distancing interventions were not implemented until October 3, when disease spread had already begun to overwhelm local medical and public health resources. 

cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic had peak death rates ≈50% lower than those that did not and had less-steep epidemic curves. Cities in which multiple interventions were implemented at an early phase of the epidemic also showed a trend toward lower cumulative excess mortality, but the difference was smaller (≈20%) and less statistically significant than that for peak death rates. This finding was not unexpected, given that few cities maintained NPIs longer than 6 weeks in 1918. Early implementation of certain interventions, including closure of schools, churches, and theaters, was associated with lower peak death rates, but no single intervention showed an association with improved aggregate outcomes for the 1918 phase of the pandemic. These findings support the hypothesis that rapid implementation of multiple NPIs can significantly reduce influenza transmission, but that viral spread will be renewed upon relaxation of such measures._

Also we are now at a stage where China has an Iran traveller developing symptoms in Zhongwei, sparsely populated Ningxia, and the suspicion is that the virus might have been contracted in Iran not China.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I already posted this on another thread, but relevant here. Interesting five minute interview with Prof Neil Ferguson of J-Idea on Radio 4 today programme this morning (first mentioned by hash tag). Begins at 2:12:40
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Thanks for that.

Same themes that we hae discussed before but here is a partial recap for anyone who isnt going to get round to listening to that:

Detected cases and deaths in Italy suggest an outbreak that began 3-4 weeks ago (the lag I always talk about). Detected cases represent only a fraction of likely total cases there. 

Discussion about what measures to take in the UK. Balancing economic cost & other disruption against the aim of blunting the peak to help the health system. He doesnt think we will close off towns, but social distancing was mentioned and the possibility of school closures vs economic implications was discussed.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> I dont know where 60% comes from, the widely quoted figure from one expert was 40-70%, and the following previous post by me shows him updating his stance so that the 40-70% relates only to adults, and only when there are no effective controls.
> 
> #2,002



Pulling another R4 Today programme link out of my big bag of them - I believe the 60% figure was widely reported a couple of weeks ago following this earlier Prof Neil Ferguson interview on Today programme on 12th Feb:









						Today - 12/02/2020 - BBC Sounds
					

News and current affairs, including Sports Desk, Weather and Thought for the Day.




					www.bbc.co.uk
				




The interview begins at 2:10:50, but the specific question and answer which mentions 60% begins at 2:17:00.  It was a somewhat qualified reply and as you will hear, he only said “maybe up to 60% of the population getting infected”, but the news websites and papers later picked up and ran with it quite widely.

In fairness to Marty1, not sure why he’s getting hammered for mentioning a number which does come from a respected source and which was discussed many pages previously in this thread, without anyone getting told to FO.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 27, 2020)

Dogsauce said:


> if you’re fit and well try and get it now before the healthcare system is overwhelmed.



I'm assuming this is a joke but for the avoidance of doubt please don't anybody do this.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 27, 2020)

sihhi said:


> All of Japan's schools now ordered closed from Monday until the spring holidays the second week of April.



Surely this will cause economic chaos as parents stay home from work to look after their kids.


----------



## Wilf (Feb 27, 2020)

Entirely an aside, but I presume we've already had spivs selling spurious 'antivirals' to meet the panic?


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

Wilf said:


> Entirely an aside, but I presume we've already had spivs selling spurious 'antivirals' to meet the panic?



Be careful with that type of language - the self appointed hall monitors on this thread may make recommendations for your removal.

Regarding antivirals - haven’t read anything about spivs but at Trumps recent press conference there was mention of an antiviral for the US being available in approx 1 year or so.


----------



## ska invita (Feb 27, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> In fairness to Marty1, not sure why he’s getting hammered for mentioning a number which does come from a respected source and which was discussed many pages previously in this thread, without anyone getting told to FO.


See his earlier post on this thread (and elsewhere) is why. He's been parroting Trumps conspiracy line on this.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Regarding antivirals - haven’t read anything about spivs but at Trumps recent press conference there was mention of an antiviral for the US being available in approx 1 year or so.



The 1 year-18 months mentioned in that press conference was a suggested timescale for a vaccine.

Antivirals are a different matter. Remdesivir was mentioned, as that is undergoing trial, but I dont remember if any timing estimates for that were given in that particular press conference, no would be my tentative answer.


----------



## Cid (Feb 27, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Pulling another R4 Today programme link out of my big bag of them - I believe the 60% figure was widely reported a couple of weeks ago following this earlier Prof Neil Ferguson interview on Today programme on 12th Feb:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Whenever prof. Ferguson crops up here my brain automatically says ‘and what does that cunt know about pandemics?!’. Neil... Neil. Not Niall.


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 27, 2020)

So the only person I've seen wearing a mask in my week of travelling around London was the woman at the Bureau de Change.  Go figure.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> Surely this will cause economic chaos as parents stay home from work to look after their kids.



I dont think Japan wants its people to carry on with business as usual. Cancelling public events and closing schools are two large steps that do tend to ensure that no sense of normality persists.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Cid said:


> Whenever prof. Ferguson crops up here my brain automatically says ‘and what does that cunt know about pandemics?!’. Neil... Neil. Not Niall.



One fights pandemics at Imperial College London. The other is a one man pandemic of imperialist shite.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 27, 2020)

I'm amazed at how little social distancing seems to be going on here in Seoul. People are still in restaurants, in groups, eating together, sitting around in cafes in close confines with so many other people, with everyone unmasked. 

_So many_ people wear masks but pull them down below their noses.  

People are bulk-buying in the supermarkets too. There's still lots of produce, but some stuff is selling out. There are also long lines of people queuing to buy masks.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 27, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> So the only person I've seen wearing a mask in my week of travelling around London was the woman at the Bureau de Change.  Go figure.


seen lots of people wearing masks in london, mostly apparently japanese and chinese people.


----------



## Kaka Tim (Feb 27, 2020)

Am i alone in thinking that measures to stop the spread are pointless and that we should let it run its course. Whole countries on lock down for a disease with a 1 % mortality rate?


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

The Guardian noticed that the New York Times noticed that the California case is an example of missing a case for quite a long time because of narrow criteria for suspecting Covid-19.



> Doctors at the University of California, Davis, Medical Center considered the novel pathogen a possible diagnosis when the person was first admitted last week.
> 
> But the federal agency that conducts the testing did not administer the test until days later because the case did not fit the agency’s narrow testing criteria, university officials said in a letter to the campus community.



40m ago 13:54


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 27, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> Am i alone in thinking that measures to stop the spread are pointless and that we should let it run its course. Whole countries on lock down for a disease with a 1 % mortality rate?



I know they're not large areas to control, but Singapore and Hong Kong seem to be on top of things. I really thought Korea would be able to handle this too though.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> Am i alone in thinking that measures to stop the spread are pointless and that we should let it run its course. Whole countries on lock down for a disease with a 1 % mortality rate?



You wont be alone, but I dont think you appreciate what a 1% mortality rate means if, and only if, the percentage of the population infected in a narrow period of time is also very high.

It is not possible to build a completely accurate picture of any of the details yet, including the true mortality rate, or of how much difference containment and mitigation measures will have. WHO are running with the idea that the draconian measures China took have made a huge difference.

I dont know when exactly it will become clearer whether countries have overreacted or under-reacted. It could happen quickly, or it might take a long time to figure it out. Some countries may try one approach and then have to do a dramatic u-turn. The assumptions you are basing your stance on are not safe at all, but if we are very lucky then that stance will end up being justified anyway.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I'm amazed at how little social distancing seems to be going on here in Seoul. People are still in restaurants, in groups, eating together, sitting around in cafes in close confines with so many other people, with everyone unmasked.
> 
> _So many_ people wear masks but pull them down below their noses.
> 
> People are bulk-buying in the supermarkets too. There's still lots of produce, but some stuff is selling out. There are also long lines of people queuing to buy masks.



Saw something online saying the best masks are the painters style masks which stop certain particles from entering, whereas the surgical masks aren’t much use other than just a physical barrier from the wearer containing any sneezes/coughs.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)




----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Saw something online saying the best masks are the painters style masks which stop certain particles from entering, whereas the surgical masks aren’t much use other than just a physical barrier from the wearer containing any sneezes/coughs.



Yeah, surgical masks aren't very popular here. Everyone wants KF94 respirators. Having found myself caught short in China, I started buying them as soon as I got into Korea, so we haven't had to join the queues to buy more this week.


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 27, 2020)

If anything positive is to come out of this gutting the Iranian theocracy would be it.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Italy is providing examples of what happens when economic interests influence the anti-panic message. All manner of things that do not fairly belong under the banner of 'epidemic of misinformation' will be lumped in, and there will be propaganda.



> Italy’s government is in fightback mode, trying a concerted approach to lessen the coronavirus panic. The foreign minister warned that an “epidemic of misleading information” would damage Italy “more than the virus itself”, which, he added, had infected 0.1% of towns in the country. “It’s time to stop the panic”, said the prime minister, asking the national broadcaster Rai to “tone down”.
> 
> On the front pages of Italian newspapers, the top story is no longer the rising number of cases – now more than 520, with 14 deaths – but appeals for calm. The mayor of Milan, where many hotels and restaurants are half-empty, has called for some museums to reopen. A new video released by the authorities shows vibrant scenes from the city with the message: we’re not afraid and we’re open for business.
> 
> But this is a story driven by perceptions. And with Donald Trump mentioning possible future travel restrictions to Italy, with Israel barring foreigners arriving on flights from Italy, with Kuwait evacuating its nationals from Milan, the Italian government faces a challenge to change the narrative.



From BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51655133



Yes, that means its time to dust off this video.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 27, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> So the only person I've seen wearing a mask in my week of travelling around London was the woman at the Bureau de Change.  Go figure.


Sensible - cash must be crawling with germs.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 27, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> Surely this will cause economic chaos as parents stay home from work to look after their kids.



Real economic chaos is letting the health system be overrun.
No economy can operate without a supplied health system.

I yesterday read a long account about a family in Wuhan 3 people, mum, a cancer ward patient, + dad + daughter.
Dad + daughter infected. Dad died, daughter survived, mum died 5 days after dad, because no staff to perform procedures.


----------



## LDC (Feb 27, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> Am i alone in thinking that measures to stop the spread are pointless and that we should let it run its course. Whole countries on lock down for a disease with a 1 % mortality rate?



You're wrong. It's about 1-2% fatality rate among _some _groups, much much higher among older/sicker people. Also 2% fatality rate of the 70% of the UK population that may be infected at worse case is nearly 1 million deaths in the UK alone.


----------



## Kaka Tim (Feb 27, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> You're wrong. It's about 1-2% fatality rate among _some _groups, much much higher among older/sicker people. Also 2% fatality rate of the 70% of the UK population that may be infected at worse case is nearly 1 million deaths in the UK alone.



but is a 70% infection rate remotely likely? previous similar virus haven't come close to that. is this one notably different? (genuine question). Is what we are seeing acceptable risk management or an overreaction that has worse consequences than the actual virus.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> Sensible - cash must be crawling with germs.



Gives a new meaning to ‘dirty money.’


----------



## sihhi (Feb 27, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> but is a 70% infection rate remotely likely? previous similar virus haven't come close to that. is this one notably different? (genuine question). Is what we are seeing acceptable risk management or an overreaction that has worse consequences than the actual virus.



Nowhere near enough risk management, I am afraid. The risks are very high. 

China's CDC this morning had a info report saying 60% of cases that became critical ended with fatality. 
If I understand it correctly, this means we can expect the 8,500 odd critical patients in China's statistics to sooner or later give us an extra thousands of deaths. The problem is different regions have different criteria for deaths.
A 23 year old national female futsal player died in Qom according to state media.

It's very lethal and very infectious.

Bahrain with under 10 cases has closed _*all*_ private and public schools, universities, and nurseries for the next two weeks.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 27, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Bahrain with under 10 cases has closed _*all*_ private and public schools, universities, and nurseries for the next two weeks.


bahrain is smaller than london


----------



## LDC (Feb 27, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> but is a 70% infection rate remotely likely? previous similar virus haven't come close to that. is this one notably different? (genuine question). Is what we are seeing acceptable risk management or an overreaction that has worse consequences than the actual virus.



I personally don't know if it's likely, but from what the clever people with experience in this field are saying it's definitely possible. And all the measures are going to be a balance as you say. But given the tendency for the economy to usually be prioritized over human health, and the general unpredictability of this as we're in the early stages, I think it's not ridiculous to err on the side of caution.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> bahrain is smaller than london



But similar population density?


----------



## Kaka Tim (Feb 27, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I personally don't know if it's likely, but from what the clever people with experience in this field are saying it's definitely possible. And all the measures are going to be a balance as you say. But given the tendency for the economy to usually be prioritized over human health, and the general unpredictability of this as we're in the early stages, I think it's not ridiculous to err on the side of caution.



its hard to quantify - but economic damage could quite easily indirectly  cause more deaths than the virus- (look at the effects of austerity in the UK - hundreds of thousands of deaths over the past 10 years).  

Also - there are other potentially fatal diseases out there. 14,000 people died from flu in the uk last year - but infection control measures weren't thought remotely necessary. How is this worse? (again - genuine question)


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 27, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> its hard to quantify - but economic damage could quite easily indirectly  cause more deaths than the virus- (look at the effects of austerity in the UK - hundreds of thousands of deaths over the past 10 years).
> 
> Also - there are other potentially fatal diseases out there. 14,000 people died from flu in the uk last year - but infection control measures weren't thought remotely necessary. How is this worse? (again - genuine question)



Both good points.  Though with the flu there was a vaccine as there always is but I think last years was a bit shit.


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> But similar population density?


Not really no


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> but is a 70% infection rate remotely likely? previous similar virus haven't come close to that. is this one notably different? (genuine question). Is what we are seeing acceptable risk management or an overreaction that has worse consequences than the actual virus.



What similar virus are you referring to?

I prfer ranges to single stimates anyway, so 40%-70% of adults if no control measures are taken is one estimate. But that estimate is built on top of other estimates.

Only time will ultimately answer all of these questions, but then if the answers are bad it will be too late to prevent some of the damage.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

2hats said:


> I'll see that and raise you:
> 
> 
> Fortunately later on on Newsnight there are some more measured voices after that headline grabbing opener.




BBC live updates page picked up on this a little while ago.



> The BBC's Newsnight programme understands that the Cabinet Office has been in contact with local authorities about their preparedness, specifically with regard to their “Excess Death Contingency Planning”. This includes, among other things, where local authorities might locate new, and perhaps mass, burial sites, should they be needed.
> 
> The government stresses that these are worst-case contingency plans and a Whitehall source confirms that they have been done before, albeit rarely, for example at the time of the 2009 Sars outbreak.
> 
> A Cabinet Office spokesman said: “We have been clear from the outset that we expect coronavirus to have some impact on the UK, which is why we are planning for every eventuality – including the reasonable worst case scenario. Crucially this does not mean we expect it to happen."



Its a shame they can't get their facts right. SARS was 2003, 2009 was swine flu.


----------



## Teaboy (Feb 27, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I'm amazed at how little social distancing seems to be going on here in Seoul. People are still in restaurants, in groups, eating together, sitting around in cafes in close confines with so many other people, with everyone unmasked.
> 
> _So many_ people wear masks but pull them down below their noses.
> 
> People are bulk-buying in the supermarkets too. There's still lots of produce, but some stuff is selling out. There are also long lines of people queuing to buy masks.



No such risk in Taiwan.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

WHO fixed the mistake in their workplace guide.

Error:



> Risk of serious illness rises with age: people over 40 seem to be more vulnerable than those under 50.



Fixed version:



> Risk of serious illness rises with age: people over 40 seem to be more vulnerable than those under 40.





			https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/getting-workplace-ready-for-covid-19.pdf


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> WHO fixed the mistake in their workplace guide.
> 
> Error:
> 
> ...



I guess that’s a huge concern for the House of Lords not to mention retirement homes etc.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

UK chief medical officer Chris Whitty:



> One of the things that’s really clear with this virus, much more so than flu, is that anything we do we’re going to have to do for quite a long period of time, probably more than two months.
> 
> “The implications of that are non-trivial, so we need to think that through carefully.
> 
> “This is something we face as really quite a serious problem for society potentially if this goes out of control. It may not but if it does globally then we may have to face that.”





> If this becomes a global epidemic then the UK will get it, and if it does not become a global epidemic the UK is perfectly capable of containing and getting rid of individual cases leading to onward transmission.
> 
> “If it is something which is containable, the UK can contain it. If it is not containable, it will be non-containable everywhere and then it is coming our way.”



                            51m ago    16:21


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

And the BBCs take on the same:



> While the coronavirus presents "some challenges", it will not be anything like the scale of the deadly Spanish Flu pandemic, England's chief medical officer has said.
> 
> Speaking to health professionals at the Nuffield Trust Summit in Windsor, Professor Chris Whitty said: "We are not heading into a H1N1 1918 flu pandemic situation but the coronavirus does present some challenges for us. It definitely will for a period. How big remains to be seen."





> He said onward transmission in the UK was "just a matter of time in my view".
> 
> Prof Whitty said there could be a "social cost" if the virus worsens, which could result in the reduction of mass gatherings and school closures for more than two months.



From their live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51655133


----------



## planetgeli (Feb 27, 2020)

It's not all bad news.









						US and UK stock markets plunge as coronavirus panic hits shares — as it happened
					

Markets around the world are being spooked by the coronavirus crisis




					www.theguardian.com
				




And Netflix up 2.7% because presumably we're all going to be watching a bit more telly.


----------



## Supine (Feb 27, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> It's not all bad news.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Bad news if you have a pension


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 27, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> Am i alone in thinking that measures to stop the spread are pointless and that we should let it run its course. Whole countries on lock down for a disease with a 1 % mortality rate?



It's all about the 1% these days. 

To me the futlity of all the containment stuff comes not from the risk to life but from the chances of success. Which are, at this point, in the low zeroes.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 27, 2020)

Supine said:


> Bad news if you have a pension



As is the virus itself tbf.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> To me the futlity of all the containment stuff comes not from the risk to life but from the chances of success. Which are, at this point, in the low zeroes.



The label containment is easily stuck with for too long by authorities. If its renamed and explained as mitigation instead then it still serves a purpose long after actual containment has clearly failed.


----------



## ska invita (Feb 27, 2020)

Supine said:


> Bad news if you have a pension


some perspective


----------



## weltweit (Feb 27, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> Am i alone in thinking that measures to stop the spread are pointless and that we should let it run its course. Whole countries on lock down for a disease with a 1 % mortality rate?


First, I think the fatality rate might be 2% so twice your number. And that 2% is of the whole infected population. If you are in one of the higher risk groups, i.e. older people or people with existing conditions, the rate among those groups will be much greater than 2%. 

So perhaps you are young and vigorous, you think I am allright jack, but what about your parents, or your grandparents, or anyone you know who is a smoker, or your friend's parents or grand parents, an elderly neighbour?


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> I guess that’s a huge concern for the House of Lords not to mention retirement homes etc.



...and the Conservative Party


----------



## Supine (Feb 27, 2020)

ska invita said:


> some perspective



We can revisit that in six months


----------



## sihhi (Feb 27, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> bahrain is smaller than london



Iraq has six cases closed all schools and universities until March 7 as a minimum.

The scale of the problem in Korea is staggering: (6th LD) S. Korea's virus cases top 1,700 on surge in infected church followers | Yonhap News Agency

_In an alarming sign that the novel coronavirus is spreading more widely in South Korea, the total number of cases in the capital of Seoul and Busan, the second-largest city, rose to 56 and 61, respectively. Critically ill people infected with the virus are treated in so-called negative pressure rooms at hospitals to prevent the virus from further spreading within hospitals.
As such facilities have been overwhelmed in Daegu, big hospitals in Seoul said they will accept virus patients who are in critical condition._


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2020)

Following on from the highly perceptive question upthread: 

How long can coronavirus survive on any surface?



> The World Health Organisation says: "It is still not known how long the 2019-nCoV virus survives on surfaces, although preliminary information suggests the virus may survive a few hours or more. Simple disinfectants can kill the virus making it no longer possible to infect people."
> 
> Now, a news report in ScienceAlert s a new study suggesting that the new coronavirus could survive on inanimate objects for well over a week and up to nine days at room temperature. ...
> 
> ...



When it says 'simple disinfectants can kill the virus' I'm hoping that doesn't mean chlorine-based ones that would be highly unpleasant.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> This would be a proper downer if it turns out to be true
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Another case of more questions than answers!


----------



## weltweit (Feb 27, 2020)

two sheds So, it could potentially be transmitted on goods shipped from China.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2020)

Another good reason for not catching it early is that more research will hopefully sort out some of these questions. In the meantime we'll all have to just keep sneezing into our elbows .


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> two sheds So, it could potentially be transmitted on goods shipped from China.



You might think so  perhaps on the masks they're sending out : 

Eta: Mind you most stuff gets sent out by sea doesn't it? Has taken a fair bit more than 9 days when I've ordered stuff not realizing it was coming from China. Otherwise tends to go to a holding area over here.


----------



## prunus (Feb 27, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> its hard to quantify - but economic damage could quite easily indirectly  cause more deaths than the virus- (look at the effects of austerity in the UK - hundreds of thousands of deaths over the past 10 years).
> 
> Also - there are other potentially fatal diseases out there. 14,000 people died from flu in the uk last year - but infection control measures weren't thought remotely necessary. How is this worse? (again - genuine question)



Here is one possible answer:

It appears from data available so far that about 5% of cases become critical. About half of these died in China in intensive care. The other half survived.

Epidemiological models suggest that without strong containment measures 40% morbidity in the population is possibly conservative.

40% of UK population is ~25,000,000 people. 5% of that is 1,250,000 people needing intensive care to have a 50% chance of surviving.

The UK has about 6,000 intensive care beds.

It should be stressed that the above is just a scenario, and rests on a number of untested assumptions, but it fits the little we know so far.

I am concerned that the UK is not taking this a seriously as they should be - although perhaps they are, and they’re going to introduce the required lockdown slowly, for PR reasons - after all the scenario I outline above is easy for anyone to work out.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Following on from the highly perceptive question upthread:
> 
> How long can coronavirus survive on any surface?
> 
> ...



I believe there are a whole range of disinfectants that should be effective.

I stumbled on the WHO myth-busters page when looking for something else about that, but even though I know you arent talking about the following, I cannot miss the opportunity to post it.















						COVID-19 Mythbusters – World Health Organization
					

Highlighting some of the misinformation circulating on COVID-19




					www.who.int


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2020)

Indeed, I'm still going with my original thesis that if you want to kill the virus after it's entered your body you have to drink the alcohol (60%+ proof).


----------



## weltweit (Feb 27, 2020)

two sheds said:


> You might think so  perhaps on the masks they're sending out :
> 
> Eta: Mind you most stuff gets sent out by sea doesn't it? Has taken a fair bit more than 9 days when I've ordered stuff not realizing it was coming from China. Otherwise tends to go to a holding area over here.


We have been receiving air freight from China. It only takes days.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2020)

I presume they'll be testing things like that for the person in California who fell ill after no known contact with someone who'd travelled to the area?

And it did say the virus doesn't like humid conditions unless temperatures are low - so steam the little buggers?


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I presume they'll be testing things like that for the person in California who fell ill after no known contact with someone who'd travelled to the area?



No, what generally happens when such cases pop up, is they are treated as a sign that previously undetected community spread is underway.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2020)

Yes fair enough, makes more sense.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> two sheds So, it could potentially be transmitted on goods shipped from China.



Highly unlikely because the virus dies on "porous" surfaces like cardboard but survives best on smooth ones like enamel, metal and plastic.









						No, You Won't Catch The New Coronavirus Via Packages Or Mail From China
					

Experts in infectious disease say viruses such as the novel coronavirus don't survive long on surfaces, and there's no evidence from similar outbreaks that anyone got infected by handling a package.




					www.npr.org


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Highly unlikely because the virus dies on "porous" surfaces like cardboard but survives best on smooth ones like enamel, metal and plastic.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Interesting and somewhat reassuring: unlikely to survive outside or inside a cardboard box



> McGraw says it is highly unlikely that the virus could survive for multiple days outside or inside a cardboard box, for example, that contains something an infected person had sneezed on or handled.
> 
> "What we know about these viruses is that they don't last very long on surfaces, and that's particularly the case for a very porous surface" such as cardboard, McGraw explains.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Yes fair enough, makes more sense.



I was blunt about it because its one of the key 'early warning' systems we have, and it may be important for people to understand why this is treated as such bad news. One which I would actually describe as a 'late warning' except it still tends to pop up earlier than our other methods for noticing community spread. It was a case like this in Glasgow that caused the Sottish government in 2009 to start talking about wider community spread of swine flu there, before the UK as a whole was ready to declare that picture.

Its a related subject to why the first cases being detected in Iran and Italy being severe cases or deaths was bad news with implications. These are sentinels, as is starting to detect imported cases from a country that has not noticed, or only just noticed, its own domestic outbreak (in recent times, Iran->Canada case was a sentinel warning event, one of a bunch for Iran at that time). When these things happen, it suggests there are a lot more cases out there, and thats where the big bad news is.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> I was blunt about it because its one of the key 'early warning' systems we have,



No is good - I'm speculating from very little information and don't want to be alarmist.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Sorry that I edited more stuff into that last post again, my bad habit.

Do have to be slightly careful with the 'single case with no known links to other cases/clusters/places' though, just in case its a story of poor contact tracing or a limited cluster, rather than genuinely broad community spread.

But now 'seek and you shall find' is unfortunately likely to be true more than had been hoped (foolishly) in recent weeks. Once one case is found like that, it usually leads to greater curiosity about looking for others, and a broadening of criteria for suspecting cases.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

WHO Director-general spends a fair portion of his time warning against panic and fear. Then draws attention to this tweet that uses the word terrifying. But never mind, gotta tap into the millions of followers of the famous, even if their framing of events does not exactly adhere to WHO guidelines.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

This thread is probably the most informed and up to date Coronavirus source of info on the internet


----------



## OneStrike (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> This thread is probably the most informed and up to date Coronavirus source of info on the internet



Was just thinking the same, elbows should be doing Merch!


----------



## SpineyNorman (Feb 27, 2020)

two sheds said:


> You might think so  perhaps on the masks they're sending out :
> 
> Eta: Mind you most stuff gets sent out by sea doesn't it? Has taken a fair bit more than 9 days when I've ordered stuff not realizing it was coming from China. Otherwise tends to go to a holding area over here.


4 to 6 weeks by sea (usually closer to 4) a couple of days by air.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 27, 2020)

Is there a meme/panic/fear-mongering thread? I keep coming across loads of mental articles that I feel the need to share, but this thread is good and useful and I don't want to ruin it.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

OneStrike said:


> Was just thinking the same, elbows should be doing Merch!



Thanks, though I never really know what to say to stuff like that. And I've not been trying to cover everything, eg I havent given running totals for countries. I'm mostly trying to pick the significant events/indicators. And my sources arent all that broad really, and lots of the unknowns might stay that way for ages. So there might be a lot of repetition here if the same themes keep coming up, especially if new people start joining in as the coronavirus starts to show up more on their radar.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Northern Ireland has its first confirmed case.









						Northern Ireland diagnoses first coronavirus case
					

Authorities say the patient, who is the UK's 16th case, had travelled from northern Italy via Dublin.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> The country's chief medical officer, Dr Michael McBride, said the patient had come from northern Italy via Dublin.
> 
> Dr McBride said the patient had contacted a GP and had taken steps to self-isolate.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 27, 2020)

BBC are reporting a case in Northern Ireland, patient apparently caught it in Italy.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Is there a meme/panic/fear-mongering thread? I keep coming across loads of mental articles that I feel the need to share, but this thread is good and useful and I don't want to ruin it.



Yeah, it’s a shame that all articles can’t be shared and disseminated appropriately without fear of being barked at by a small rabble of self anointed gatekeeper’s.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> self anointed gatekeeper’s.



Do not anoint yourself with sesame oil.







Posted for a dual purpose, since it also answers more of the earlier question about disinfectants.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 27, 2020)

I find this assessment fascinating:

_During an appearance before the House Committee on Ways and Means on Capitol Hill, Azar said the United States can still expect to see new confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus as the response efforts now focus on containing the spread of the disease on American soil, but he said that doesn't mean there will necessarily be a large number of people who will need to be hospitalized._

Has he forgotten one in five need ICU? Stay at home means infect housemates. Madness.

On France's sudden rise in cases 12 are related to the 55 year old in ICU in Oise, Amiens.

Parmi les nouveaux cas figurent _"12 nouveaux cas liés au patient infecté dans l'Oise"_, a précisé Olivier Véran, précisant qu'ils _"semblent être liés entre par une chaîne de contamination"_. Un voyage en Egypte est à l'origine de deux cas, a annoncé le directeur de la Santé, Jérôme Salomon. _"Nous avons ensuite des cas isolés"_, a-t-il continué, notamment un cas de retour d'Italie hospitalisé à la Pitié-Salpêtrière et une personne prise en charge à Montpellier. Suivez notre direct.

This virus makes less and less sense a trip to Egypt is at the origin of two cases?


----------



## weltweit (Feb 27, 2020)

A bit of general stuff about vaccines. Nothing exciting. 









						Covid vaccine update: Those that work - and the others on the way
					

Covid vaccination campaigns are under way in the UK and across the world.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Supine (Feb 27, 2020)

Cases in Malaysia seem quiet spread out and includes children as well as adults. I'm not sure how many had been abroad when they caught it.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 27, 2020)

Supine said:


> Cases in Malaysia seem quiet spread out and includes children as well as adults. I'm not sure how many had been abroad when they caught it.
> View attachment 199974



There was a new case imported from Japan bringing the total to 23.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Stay at home means infect housemates. Madness.



Staying at home if you are only suffering mildly is a critically important part of the plan. I dont imagine any country taking a different approach if/when they have large outbreaks, as opposed to small initial clusters when you can actually hospitalise every known case.


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Feb 27, 2020)

If you have Covid-19 and housemates you are going to expose the latter to the former whether you stay at home or not.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Supine said:


> Cases in Malaysia seem quiet spread out and includes children as well as adults. I'm not sure how many had been abroad when they caught it.



There seems to be a wikipedia page dedicated to their outbreak, but my brain is too overloaded to read it properly right now.









						COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## weltweit (Feb 27, 2020)

I heard of a case of a person who was infected, confirmed by a test, recovered and was released from hospital and then a few weeks later was tested again and had again become infected. 

Did anyone else hear that or see a link anywhere?


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I heard of a case of a person who was infected, confirmed by a test, recovered and was released from hospital and then a few weeks later was tested again and had again become infected.
> 
> Did anyone else hear that or see a link anywhere?



           #2,108          
           #2,204


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Another one of these early/late warning signs of broader community spread:



> MADRID (AFP) - Spanish health authorities said on Thursday (Feb 27) they were investigating the first suspected cases of local transmission of the deadly coronavirus in the country, including an elderly man who was in "serious" condition in hospital.
> 
> Three people are in hospital - two in Madrid and one in Seville - with the flu-like disease and have no known travel to a country with an outbreak of the virus, said the chief coordinator for health emergencies at Spain's health ministry.
> 
> Neither did they have any connection to a known patient, health emergencies coordinator Fernando Simon told a news conference.











						Coronavirus: Spain probes first suspected cases of local transmissions
					

MADRID (AFP) - Spanish health authorities said on Thursday (Feb 27) they were investigating the first suspected cases of local transmission of the deadly coronavirus in the country, including an elderly man who was in "serious" condition in hospital.  Read more at straitstimes.com.




					www.straitstimes.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

__





						Detection of low level of COVID-19 virus in pet dog
					

A spokesman for the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) said today (February 28) that a pet dog had been tested weak positive to COVID-19 virus.          The...



					www.info.gov.hk
				






> The AFCD received a referral from the Department of Health on February 26 that a dog of a patient infected with COVID-19 disease virus will be handed over to the AFCD. Staff of the AFCD picked up the dog from a residential flat at Tai Hang in the evening on the same day and sent the dog to the animal keeping facility at the Hong Kong Port of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge. Oral, nasal and rectal samples were collected for testing of COVID-19 virus. The nasal and oral cavity samples were tested weak positive to COVID-19 virus. The dog does not have any relevant symptoms.





> At present, the AFCD does not have evidence that pet animals can be infected with COVID-19 virus or can be a source of infection to people. The Department will conduct close monitoring of the above dog and collect further samples for testing to confirm if the dog has really been infected with the virus or this is a result of environmental contamination of the dog's mouth and nose. Repeated tests will be conducted for the dog and it will only be returned when the test result is negative


----------



## Kaka Tim (Feb 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> First, I think the fatality rate might be 2% so twice your number. And that 2% is of the whole infected population. If you are in one of the higher risk groups, i.e. older people or people with existing conditions, the rate among those groups will be much greater than 2%.
> 
> So perhaps you are young and vigorous, you think I am allright jack, but what about your parents, or your grandparents, or anyone you know who is a smoker, or your friend's parents or grand parents, an elderly neighbour?




Its not "im alright jack" - im asking how is this different to stuff like SARS and bird flu - or normal strains of flu? So far we have approx 100,000 reported cases and 3000 fatalities - yes there are almost certainly a huge number of cases going unreported, but presumably not so where people get seriously ill. 
But we are talking about a couple of billion people living in the affected countries - so why is there this level of concern?


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

Much of the answer has already been explained to you.

The problem is that in order to see for yourself at full scale why such a response is deemed necessary, we would need to see to what extent infection ultimately spread in a country that didnt bother doing much about it at all. Since China intervened heavily in their outbreak after a certain point, we did not get that full picture. However the picture of overwhelmed healthcare in Wuhan before countermeasures were taken was quite sufficient for the strong reaction to result.


----------



## SpineyNorman (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Yeah, it’s a shame that all articles can’t be shared and disseminated appropriately without fear of being barked at by a small rabble of self anointed gatekeeper’s.


And possible greengrocer's?


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 27, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> Its not "im alright jack" - im asking how is this different to stuff like SARS and bird flu - or normal strains of flu? So far we have approx 100,000 reported cases and 3000 fatalities - yes there are almost certainly a huge number of cases going unreported, but presumably not so where people get seriously ill.
> But we are talking about a couple of billion people living in the affected countries - so why is there this level of concern?


There's been answers on this thread to this question already, but it's about scale.

Covid19 has killed more people in less time than SARS. It's brand new so there's no immunity/community reisstance. We also don't know anything about it, so there's that....


----------



## Dan U (Feb 27, 2020)

We started gaming some of this stuff at work today (I work in local govt)

It gets quite frightening quite quickly tbh. The system can deal with spikes in illness and death, it plans for it for terrorism and major incidents, right down to storage and  disposal of bodies, hospital beds etc. But that's a spike on a relatively small footprint that assumes other local services across a region can support in the short term. 

But when you start mapping the work force issues in social care (which is what we were doing) based on a moderate outbreak but a large shut down of schools etc. it gets quite difficult quite quickly - suddenly your care work force is hugely depleted by people having to stay at home to look after kids, who may all be perfectly well.

Just as one 'for instance' - layer a few of these up and it gets quite scary with the time frames for quarantine being discussed.

We are doing it properly next week with health partners. Should be fun.


----------



## 2hats (Feb 27, 2020)

Jail time in ROK if you break the coronavirus quarantine.









						South Korea imposes jail time for breaking coronavirus quarantine
					

Legislature also passes travel ban and export controls amid surge in patients




					asia.nikkei.com
				




Whilst the various medical authorities (CDC, NHS to name two) are now advising on what styles of beards are N95 respirator compatible.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2020)

So Zappa, handlebar or Hitler's are all good.


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Feb 27, 2020)

Well I'm as concerned about the use of pointless masks as much as any man but I'm not shaving my beard, the human race be damned.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 27, 2020)

FridgeMagnet said:


> If you have Covid-19 and housemates you are going to expose the latter to the former whether you stay at home or not.



But you will expose them to a larger viral load if you stay anywhere near them without PPE when they have symptoms.



elbows said:


> Staying at home if you are only suffering mildly is a critically important part of the plan. I dont imagine any country taking a different approach if/when they have large outbreaks, as opposed to small initial clusters when you can actually hospitalise every known case.



The makeshift hospital approach is the other course. 
But stuff is so difficult when it gets out of control, in Hubei there have been around 120,000 medical personnel moved there and it's still nowhere near  being cleared up.
I think the current approach is setting the match for painful things.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 27, 2020)

The UK has 15 beds for severe respiratory care: Coronavirus: England only has 15 beds for worst respiratory cases


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2020)

I suppose one way of finding who's most suitable is for people to fight for them. Fittest will have most chance of survival.


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

sihhi said:


> The makeshift hospital approach is the other course.



I would expect anywhere that might attempt that to be doing it to deal with severe cases, not mild ones.

I cant say I have much sense throughout this so far that you are visualising all the mild cases in the most appropriate way. I do not seek to downplay severe and critical cases, but those do seem to drown out your thinking about all the milder ones that wont require any medical treatment.


----------



## Dan U (Feb 27, 2020)

The mild cases causing quarantine were the most disruptive in our modelling today.

The knock on impact of mass quarantining escalates quite quickly on a local footprint. 

Our workforce is fully agile, i.e. Everyone has a laptop and can work at home, so from a resilience point of view if you aren't sick you can work remotely. 

But if your job is any kind of public facing job, caring, teaching, nursing etc. You can't work remotely. Or if your employer isn't set up for this but you get sent home. You can't work. 

And then if you are at home because other people can't work or go to school the workforce issues get serious. Quickly. 

Not necessarily nationally but say across south London. Or a county etc


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 27, 2020)

Dan U said:


> The mild cases causing quarantine were the most disruptive in our modelling today.
> 
> The knock on impact of mass quarantining escalates quite quickly on a local footprint.
> 
> ...



On the topic of quarantine this is worth a read: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30460-8/fulltext


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

Coronavirus: Dow Jones records biggest points fall in history — Sky News
					

New York's Dow Jones has recorded its biggest one-day points fall in history as the coronavirus stock market sell-off gathered pace.




					apple.news


----------



## sihhi (Feb 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> I would expect anywhere that might attempt that to be doing it to deal with severe cases, not mild ones.
> 
> I cant say I have much sense throughout this so far that you are visualising all the mild cases in the most appropriate way. I do not seek to downplay severe and critical cases, but those do seem to drown out your thinking about all the milder ones that wont require any medical treatment.



The makeshift hospitals in Wuhan over 20 of them are far anyone suspected ie anyone with symptoms mild and severe.

I take your point and I would stress when someone has the disease you cannot know if you are just a mild case or a severe/critical case, and the shift from one to the other can be very quick.


----------



## ska invita (Feb 27, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Coronavirus: Dow Jones records biggest points fall in history — Sky News
> 
> 
> New York's Dow Jones has recorded its biggest one-day points fall in history as the coronavirus stock market sell-off gathered pace.
> ...





whatever


----------



## Dan U (Feb 27, 2020)

What is that? Price of sausages?


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 27, 2020)

The usual disclaimers apply, but this thread could do with a dose of optimism:









						Site Not Available
					

Sorry, this site is only available in New Zealand




					www.newshub.co.nz


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 27, 2020)

.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 27, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> The usual disclaimers apply, but this thread could do with a dose of optimism:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



No, that’s great to hear


----------



## elbows (Feb 27, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I take your point and I would stress when someone has the disease you cannot know if you are just a mild case or a severe/critical case, and the shift from one to the other can be very quick.



One of the reasons they were trying to find as much out about the clinical picture as possible was so we can try to identify which cases are more likely to become severe later. Both in terms of which existing conditions make people more susceptible to worse outcomes, other factors such as age, and whether there is anything they can determine from initial tests/measurements of various vital signs, levels of things.

They have some info on that front now but I doubt its close to enough to make accurate predictions. Not that they would be able to do all they would want with such info in the event of a large outbreak anyway, there will be inevitable priorities that wont involve cases that present themselves as mild.

Yes, in many cases a disease is mild in a patient until it isnt, timescales will vary, some deteriorations will be slow and others quick. But most mild cases still remain mild throughout their duration, with no intervention required. 

If there are outbreaks which lead to many people being advised to try recovering at home, I expect there will be a bit more education on offer about specific signs to look for that indicate, for example, worsening pneumonia that is going past the point of requiring intervention. And services like 111 will be trying to pick up on such signs too, asking pertinent questions in that direction. But again I am assuming a certain level of functioning service, which wont necessarily be the case. If there is no available healthcare capacity then it makes less difference whether you pick up such deteriorating cases or not.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 28, 2020)

Fun fact: the first coronavirus cases have no connection to that market.

Nurse! Bring me my tinfoil hat!


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Fun fact: the first coronavirus cases have no connection to that market.
> 
> Nurse! Bring me my tinfoil hat!



Maybe you should post a link if you are going to say things like that.

Since I dont know what you read, I dont know what to comment on exactly so here are some more general thoughts.

It is always possible that an early cluster could be mistaken for the original source.

Some of the first cases documented in Chinese scientific reports did not have direct links to the market. But again these are first cases they found in healthcare, and who knows how they relate to the actual very first cases.

There is at least one study that uses genetic stuff to infer things about the history of the virus. Things can include timescale, and I believe this is the source of one suggestion that the outbreak started in November, not December. There may be another study that is more recent that makes an explicit suggestion that something they see in the genes suggests the market is not the source. I might have seen something like that in recent hours but I am currently overloaded and cannot check.

There arent so many things around that I would call facts at the moment. Possibilities, questions, assumptions with unknown lifespan. One paper doesnt necessarily deliver any new facts, but a good one will certainly be proven to eventually. Or at least it may depose previous assumptions that were posing as facts.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 28, 2020)

According to the study described here, researchers think the virus circulated widely in the market, but the first infections probably happened elsewhere.









						Coronavirus did not originate in Wuhan seafood market, scientists say
					

Analysis of genomic data from 93 samples of the novel coronavirus suggests it was imported from elsewhere.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> According to the study described here, researchers think the virus circulated widely in the market, but the first infections probably happened elsewhere.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Thanks, thats identified the one I said I thought I might have heard about earlier tonight. I think someone posted an image of a small part of it on twitter, and so I havent read the full thing yet. Will have a quick look now.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> Thanks, thats identified the one I said I thought I might have heard about earlier tonight. I think someone posted an image of a small part of it on twitter, and so I havent read the full thing yet. Will have a quick look now.



This is where I got the info from:Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak – Insights from Leading Expert Prof Gabriel Leung | LSHTM

Watch if intereted.


----------



## Wilf (Feb 28, 2020)

OneStrike said:


> Was just thinking the same, elbows should be doing Merch!


Yeah, but things would be better if Dr Jazzz was still here.


----------



## Combustible (Feb 28, 2020)

sihhi said:


> China's CDC this morning had a info report saying 60% of cases that became critical ended with fatality.
> If I understand it correctly, this means we can expect the 8,500 odd critical patients in China's statistics to sooner or later give us an extra thousands of deaths. The problem is different regions have different criteria for deaths.



I thought they said that 60% of critical cases in Hubei ended with fatality rather than nationally. Even if that's the national rate, the figures will be massively skewed by the numbers in Hubei, and it is very likely that the fatality rate nationally is quite a bit lower than Hubei, probably because when the health system is overwhelmed, critical cases will have much worse outcomes. For example Zhejiang province has had 1205 cases, 1 death and 11 patients classified as critical. 80% of patients in Zhejiang are reported as discharged. I can't find the numbers of critical patients discharged but even if all current 11 critical patients died that would be a 1% fatality rate, while the numbers in Hubei are already at 4% (with many more critical patients).


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> This is where I got the info from:Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak – Insights from Leading Expert Prof Gabriel Leung | LSHTM
> 
> Watch if intereted.



Thanks. I will try to find time to watch that soon.

I found what I had glimpsed earlier.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> Staying at home if you are only suffering mildly is a critically important part of the plan. I dont imagine any country taking a different approach if/when they have large outbreaks, as opposed to small initial clusters when you can actually hospitalise every known case.



I wonder if people will know that it’s covid-19 which they are suffering mildly with, rather than any other flu bug. If public services collapse through a shortage of workers, it might become quite handy to know for sure that you’ve had it and recovered from it, to allow people to volunteer to take up some of the inevitability large number of “situations vacant” which will pop up to keep everything going. Even if immunity against reinfection only lasted a few months, better to be able to make use of those months in the certain knowledge you’re over the disease, than to sit at home too scared to go anywhere in case you didn’t yet catch it.



elbows said:


> Thanks. I will try to find time to watch that soon.
> 
> I found what I had glimpsed earlier.




If there are two (or more) different strains in circulation, could that explain the reinfection of people who had previously recovered?  Ie, instead of the virus being biphasic as suggested in the article Fez909 linked to in this post a couple of pages ago, maybe the reinfection is actually the other “cousin” strain of virus finding the same victim?


----------



## Treacle Toes (Feb 28, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> Something I have been thinking about for a while - the politics of “pandemics” or more specifically, this one.  It will be weaponised by those focused enough to make capital from it , irrespective of the actual body count


Disaster capitalism, the Rees-Moggs et Al are for sure already making plans/money, it's what they do, it has been for a long time.


----------



## Artaxerxes (Feb 28, 2020)

Looks like we’re now starting to discuss emergency plans at work. We are high risk, even with the slump in cases from China.

We should have done this long before tbh, I’d also like this to hold out until the end of next week because I’m on holiday so


----------



## krtek a houby (Feb 28, 2020)

It's been gearing up a bit over here in the last few days.
Shinzo Abe says the schools will be closed until the end of March (including half-term holidays). Plenty of small bars and restaurants feeling the grip of the virus, customer numbers are dropping, lots of cancellations. Guy I spoke to the other day, said he hadn't experienced anything like this in the last 15 years. Oh, and the big Patrick's Day festival in Yoyogi is off, as well. It's a shame, as it's always good craic and the stallholders there are mostly small businesses and family run. But, better safe than sorry.


----------



## Supine (Feb 28, 2020)

This...


----------



## two sheds (Feb 28, 2020)

Bloody Private Eye


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

Such messages are well intentioned but they can backfire. Especially when you are dealing with a mixed picture where it isnt just overreaction but also underreaction that causes problems. And especially in a situation where people might be asked at some point to do things that are very different to normal. 'Get a grip' belongs in a different age too, tune in next week for a guide to mental health during a pandemic that advises 'pull yourself together'.


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> If there are two (or more) different strains in circulation, could that explain the reinfection of people who had previously recovered?  Ie, instead of the virus being biphasic as suggested in the article Fez909 linked to in this post a couple of pages ago, maybe the reinfection is actually the other “cousin” strain of virus finding the same victim?



I'm waiting till I see other experts in genetic stuff give their thoughts on the paper, and for now I am content for its suggestions to live in isolation from the rest of the picture, I wont try to build anything on top of it just now.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 28, 2020)

I'm interested in that 'weakened' form of the virus a dog was reported as getting upthread. Chicken pox parties for dogs might be a way forward


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I'm interested in that 'weakened' form of the virus a dog was reported as getting upthread. Chicken pox parties for dogs might be a way forward



I wont be surprised if that one ends up inconclusive and doesnt really go anywhere, or is deemed to be a thing but not very relevant to mitigation attempts.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 28, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I wonder if people will know that it’s covid-19 which they are suffering mildly with, rather than any other flu bug. If public services collapse through a shortage of workers, it might become quite handy to know for sure that you’ve had it and recovered from it, to allow people to volunteer to take up some of the inevitability large number of “situations vacant” which will pop up to keep everything going. Even if immunity against reinfection only lasted a few months, better to be able to make use of those months in the certain knowledge you’re over the disease, than to sit at home too scared to go anywhere in case you didn’t yet catch it.



Normally I would say most people will never know for sure, and governments wont bother. However if this thing pans out in a way that is far from normal, then all bets are off for me on this one. It would indeed be useful under such conditions for governments etc to be able to find a pool of people who had already been infected and recovered, and make use of them at the point of maximum strain on systems etc. But thats still a large undertaking that requires a significant testing capacity, and even if it could be done I dont know whether it would be deemed worthwhile due to questions about how good immunity is and how long it lasts.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 28, 2020)

I am reading the report on the WHO mission to China from 16-24 Feb:

The good

_At the individual level, the Chinese people have reacted to this outbreak with courage
and conviction.  They have accepted and adhered to the starkest of containment
measures – whether the suspension of public gatherings, the month-long ‘stay at home’
advisories or prohibitions on travel.  Throughout an intensive 9-days of site visits across
China, in frank discussions from the level of local community mobilizers and frontline
health care providers to top scientists, Governors and Mayors, the Joint Mission was
struck by the sincerity and dedication that each brings to this COVID-19 response._

The bad

_While the scale and impact of China’s COVID-19 operation has been remarkable, it has
also highlighted areas for improvement in public health emergency response capacity.  
These include overcoming any obstacles to act immediately on early alerts, to massively
scale-up capacity for isolation and care, to optimize the protection of frontline health
care workers in all settings, to enhance collaborative action on priority gaps in
knowledge and tools, and to more clearly communicate key data and developments
internationally_

Take away point for rest of the world:

_Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to 
implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China. 
These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize
transmission chains in humans.  Fundamental to these measures is extremely
proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and
immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an
exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these
measures._


----------



## 2hats (Feb 28, 2020)

Underlining some of the points raised upthread. Modelling would suggest thousands of incidences of infection in Italy right now and tens of thousands in Iran - community epidemics. So the aim is really to flatten out the peak(s) so healthcare and societal structures can better cope. Moving from containment to isolation - contact reduction, social distancing.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 28, 2020)

Interesting article highlighting the importance of nailing down the original source of this virus.





__





						COVID-19 'may not originate in China’ - Global Times
					






					www.globaltimes.cn


----------



## ice-is-forming (Feb 28, 2020)

I don't like ScoMo, our Australian PM. But I have to say that I'm happy he's jumped the gun ahead of WHO and raised the level to pandemic. We actually only have 23 confirmed cases to date, but preparing for more is imo the key. Get people used to the hand washing, the self quarantine, the working from home etc.. before it's needed and it'll be inbedded into the national psyche ahead of time. Create awareness. 

Today I  was able to have a good chat with with my immunocompromised son about the coronavirus. He's been blase but is now getting a bit more practical. He says that he won't go to work ( BJJ)  if it increases, that he'll get hand wash and use it more, and he let me buy him and his partner two N95 masks and eye wear to protect them.

Australia is heading into winter and our flu season, ive been tasked at work with preparing our policies regarding this ( cos I have experience in disaster management)  Cleanliness ( we work with vulnerable people) getting people to understand when they need to stop coming into the office ( clients and workers alike) hand/ phone sanitizer. In house flu and pneumonia vaccines for free. Plus procedure for working from home should the need arise.

I'm annoyed that people are not getting that this is something different, but I recognise that's because I have skin in the game because of my son. Still makes me angry though


----------



## ska invita (Feb 28, 2020)

2hats said:


> Underlining some of the points raised upthread. Modelling would suggest thousands of incidences of infection in Italy right now and tens of thousands in Iran - community epidemics. So the aim is really to flatten out the peak(s) so healthcare and societal structures can better cope. Moving from containment to isolation - contact reduction, social distancing.



Interesting bit in that 'the statistical picture of deaths we have today is where the virus was at 20 days ago'


----------



## 2hats (Feb 28, 2020)

ska invita said:


> Interesting bit in that 'the statistical picture we have today is where the virus was at 20 days ago'


This was discussed, or at least mentioned, upthread, I believe.


----------



## fishfinger (Feb 28, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Interesting article highlighting the importance of nailing down the original source of this virus.
> 
> http://[URL='https://www.globaltime...altimes.cn/content/1181005.shtml[/URL[/COLOR]]


You'll be quoting pravda next


----------



## 2hats (Feb 28, 2020)

First British death reported by Japanese media. British male national who was on the Diamond Princess.


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

WHO-China join mission report (Bruce Aylward) is out. I havent read it yet,



			https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 28, 2020)

fishfinger said:


> You'll be quoting pravda next



Yeah, could well be China looking to shift blame.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 28, 2020)

Now in Wales and 2 more cases in England.









						Coronavirus: 'Crucial' to trace origin of latest UK case to keep outbreak under control — Sky News
					

It is "crucial" to find out how the first person who caught the coronavirus within the UK was exposed to it, say experts, as authorities race to piece together their movements.




					apple.news
				




Welsh case linked to return travel from Italy.


----------



## Supine (Feb 28, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Interesting article highlighting the importance of nailing down the original source of this virus.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Written by somebody who doesn't know what they are talking about - suggesting the same virus strain appeared independently in multiple locations at the same time lol.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Feb 28, 2020)

Some bollocks reports  about a dog in hongers testing positive . Cannot be arsed to link


----------



## Proper Tidy (Feb 28, 2020)

Anybody know what's happening with DPRK? Quite a bit of border transit with china and wonder how north korea would cope health service wise


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> Some bollocks reports  about a dog in hongers testing positive . Cannot be arsed to link



I already mentioned it.

           #2,240          

Its not hard to write a story based off of it that quickly descends into bollocks, but with the right caveats there is nothing wrong with reporting it.


----------



## Dandred (Feb 28, 2020)

Pretty interesting graphic representation of how some crazy religious woman caused the infection rate o spike  here  in South Korea.









						2019 coronavirus: The Korean clusters
					

How coronavirus cases exploded in South Korean churches and hospitals




					graphics.reuters.com


----------



## ska invita (Feb 28, 2020)

wtf 
Moscow authorities have carried out raids on potential carriers of the virus - individuals at their homes or hotels - and used facial recognition technology to enforce quarantine measures.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 28, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Is there a meme/panic/fear-mongering thread? I keep coming across loads of mental articles that I feel the need to share, but this thread is good and useful and I don't want to ruin it.



You should start such a thread - may prove for some light entertainment perhaps?

There’s some hilarious tinfoil stuff going about tbf


----------



## smmudge (Feb 28, 2020)

Supine said:


> This...
> 
> View attachment 200032



Guy on BBC News just now, I liked when asked why we're worrying so much about coronavirus compared to flu "well people are a bit too blasé about flu..."


----------



## not-bono-ever (Feb 28, 2020)

Proper Tidy said:


> Anybody know what's happening with DPRK? Quite a bit of border transit with china and wonder how north korea would cope health service wise


  Unconfirmed reports that 1 carrier had been shot on the orders of KYU


----------



## Clair De Lune (Feb 28, 2020)

Rumours flying round Swansea that my son's comp will be shut next week because the children of the infected man go there. My son's crossing his fingers for a month off of course.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 28, 2020)

Supine said:


> This...
> 
> View attachment 200032



‘Stay calm and wash your hands’ doesn’t generate clicks for the media tho.


----------



## 2hats (Feb 28, 2020)

Proper Tidy said:


> Anybody know what's happening with DPRK? Quite a bit of border transit with china and wonder how north korea would cope health service wise


Borders have been shut for some time, restrictions placed on foreign workers and schools closed. Border won't be reopened until there is a cure according to the health minister... "No confirmed cases".


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Feb 28, 2020)

I just saw somebody washing their hands very thoroughly in the gents at the pub, which must be a first, so some public health advice is getting through it seems.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 28, 2020)

Switzerland has banned gatherings of over 1000 people. Gatherings with less need permission after local government safety measures.

Hokkaido governor has declared a state of emergency provisionally until March 19. No one should go outside over the weekend as a minimum, the implication is to meet and speak to people, working on a farm or garden is OK.

Korea has a recovered patient cleared for release returning home but then testing positive again after staying at home 6 days without others.

Xuzhou in Jiangsu has had another similar scenario, testing positive after release, her home's apartment block is now quarantined no one allowed in or out foodstuffs to be brought to its main door.

But a chief in the National Health Commission has explained that in Hubei and Guangzhou there have been cases of reinfected or retested positive (depending on your scientific analysis) patients again testing negative after some days.

Iran's parliament will stop meeting.

Kuwait has suspended schools and universities for a minimum 2 weeks.

China is sending a team of 4 infection control experts to Iran to help with the situation there.

Another nurse in Wuhan had a heart attack on duty, is now being kept in an operating theatre.

On Weibo Chinese people spitting feathers at the lax attitude taken by Italian authorities.

In response to the news from Japan, many hope the death of a British person in Japan will encourage British people to take more preventive measures.


----------



## andysays (Feb 28, 2020)

As far as testing for the virus* goes, I thought it was the case that what they actual test for is antibodies produced as reaction to the virus, and that's why there is a period after someone has been infected when they still test negative.

Is that right, or am I mistaken?

*this virus, any virus


----------



## TopCat (Feb 28, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Yeah TopCat what andysays is my thinking as well.  Given your currant predicament I would suggest that you don't see your g/f for 14 days after she comes back regardless of whether she has any symptoms.  Going to be a real shitter but it seems like the best thing to do.
> 
> I'm off to Cambodia tomorrow and I'm already letting relevant people know that I won't be seeing them for at least 14 days upon my return.


What? i want a bit of hows your father?>


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 28, 2020)

Proper Tidy said:


> Anybody know what's happening with DPRK? Quite a bit of border transit with china and wonder how north korea would cope health service wise



Closed their borders.









						North Korea’s Coronavirus Quarantine: More Effective Than Sanctions
					

Coronavirus could prove an existential threat to North Korea, given the manifest vulnerabilities of the country’s public health system to transmission of infectious diseases.




					www.forbes.com
				






> The quarantine will likely fail to stop the spread of coronavirus into North Korea, if it hasn’t already. Swine flu from China has infected North Korean boar stocks and leaked into South Korea for months across the demilitarized zone dividing the two countries. There is a low likelihood that January flight cancelations were put in place early or effectively enough to prevent Chinese tourist or North Koreans returning from overseas from bringing the coronavirus into the country.


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

andysays said:


> As far as testing for the virus* goes, I thought it was the case that what they actual test for is antibodies produced as reaction to the virus, and that's why there is a period after someone has been infected when they still test negative.
> 
> Is that right, or am I mistaken?
> 
> *this virus, any virus



There are a bunch of different sorts of tests for this kind of thing, although in the case of this coronavirus, so far the tests tend to involve taking swabs and then finding signs of the actual virus itself, using a procedure that some people on this thread are likely familiar with via their job, unlike me who just has a base level of understanding with none of the detail. I could start going on about PCR arrays but will instantly be out of my depth!

What you are describing is used for widespread serological surveys, when you want to understand what proportion of the population have previously been infected with something. China just started these sorts of tests, apparently.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 28, 2020)

Another citizen journalist has been detained


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> What you are describing is used for widespread serological surveys, when you want to understand what proportion of the population have previously been infected with something. China just started these sorts of tests, apparently.



I probably should have said that same sort of serology testing could also be used for purposes other than determining overall infection rates in population. I think we were talking on the thread a few days ago about a new test China has developed that can show a result in 15 mins and I think thats based on antibody response, for example. But it takes time to get these sorts of tests in place for a new illness, so I think most of the tests that have happened in the world so far have been the swab & PCR type. But thats an assumption.


----------



## Jeremiah18.17 (Feb 28, 2020)

If we took official Chinese figures as accurate the death rate would currently be running at 3.4-3.5 percent of those reported as infected - which is a bit alarming....... I’m taking refuge in people upthread suggesting a lower reporting rate due to many with minor symptoms? On the other hand Iranian figures suggest 16 percent and South Korean 1percent or lower.  Difference in healthcare systems?  Population health? Recording and reporting?


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

Jeremiah18.17 said:


> If we took official Chinese figures as accurate the death rate would currently be running at 3.4-3.5 percent of those reported as infected - which is a bit alarming....... I’m taking refuge in people upthread suggesting a lower reporting rate due to many with minor symptoms? On the other hand Iranian figures suggest 16 percent and South Korean 1percent or lower.  Difference in healthcare systems?  Population health? Recording and reporting?



Problems detecting and reporting mild cases are likely a factor, but yeah, some of those other things could have an impact too. And not just differences in healthcare at normal times, but whether healthcare is overwhelmed in a location at some stage eg Wuhan. But timing of outbreaks is also responsible for differences in observed death rate, because deaths lag behind disease, so Wuhan is further along than these other places. And when talking about a country like Iran or Italy, outbreak was not discovered/reported until deaths began, further skewing picture in another direction.

I was expecting February to answer some questions and it certainly has. But the case and infection fatality rates were not one of them, I didnt expect them to be, its still a bit early for that. Its still fine to estimate a possible range, but until actual orders of magnitude of mild cases are clearer, I dont treat such numbers with all that much weight. Can say that its estimated to be in a range that is worth all this fuss and disruption, if estimated ranges regarding what proportion of people will get infected are also broadly right.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 28, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> Some bollocks reports  about a dog in hongers testing positive . Cannot be arsed to link


The poor dog - hope it's OK.


----------



## Sue (Feb 28, 2020)

Came through Heathrow this afternoon and there was nothing I could see about this at all -- no announcements, posters or information about symptoms/what to do if you had concerns. Thought that was pretty surprising.


----------



## brogdale (Feb 28, 2020)

Holy smoke!

_The pontiff is slightly unwell_

Maybe he's been holed up in the Coach & Horses?


----------



## Ax^ (Feb 28, 2020)

Surived the suffling sniffing hordes at tescos

was surprised to it still had food on its shelves


----------



## Shechemite (Feb 28, 2020)

‘Resilience’ will be the watchword


----------



## Shechemite (Feb 28, 2020)

The NHS will be saved. But it won’t be what we want it to be


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

I'm sure Pope Covid the 19th will be just fine.

Meanwhile in the UK, I see there is this story about a GP in Surrey being positive without travel history. Implying local transmission. It will be contact tracing and testing those contacts that determines whether this gets chalked up as a cluster they get a handle on, or something that remains a vaguer but even more alarming first indicator of wider community spread. Wider community spread being the sort of thing that lead to 'new phase' talk in other countries. Whatever it gets chalked up at it amounts to broadly the same thing anyway, and certainly a thing that is expected here and everywhere.









						UK's 20th coronavirus case is first to catch illness in Britain
					

Man from Surrey is now in isolation unit at Guy’s and St Thomas’ hospital in London




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

By the way much of that was my interpretation - the Guardian go on about various fears in connection with that case, but I dont think they explicitly point out the angle I was drawing attention to, which is an angle I've gone on about lots before now, so that it would make more sense if/when that moment arrived in the UK. Not that there has been any 'if' about it for me lately, most things became a question of when for me, around the time we started talking about whether the word pandemic was appropriate.


----------



## brogdale (Feb 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> I'm sure Pope Covid the 19th will be just fine.
> 
> Meanwhile in the UK, I see there is this story about a GP in Surrey being positive without travel history. Implying local transmission. It will be contact tracing and testing those contacts that determines whether this gets chalked up as a cluster they get a handle on, or something that remains a vaguer but even more alarming first indicator of wider community spread. Wider community spread being the sort of thing that lead to 'new phase' talk in other countries. Whatever it gets chalked up at it amounts to broadly the same thing anyway, and certainly a thing that is expected here and everywhere.
> 
> ...


reckon by next week, all this clusters malarky, will look quite cute


----------



## Supine (Feb 28, 2020)

The FDA are reporting the first drug for humans that is affected by covid. At the moment they are not specifying which one it is. Some analysis shows drug shortages will start in Q2 and get worse in Q3. The good news is that only 20 licensed drugs are single sourced from China with the vast majority having manufacturing capability elsewhere.








						Coronavirus (COVID-19) Supply Chain Update
					

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Supply Chain Update




					www.fda.gov


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

brogdale said:


> reckon by next week, all this clusters malarky, will look quite cute



I dont know how long there will be an overlap where both pictures (specific clusters with identified people, outbreaks in locations) are still covered, as opposed to stories moving on to just the location based outbreaks and human interest individual tales of woe, serious cases, deaths. eg press have gone on in recent weeks about how UK plans for testing etc change once they get past 100 confirmed cases. This is consistent with the previous pandemic where their plans called for clinical analysis of first 100 cases to be a big chunk of what informed their approach to the next phase.


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (Feb 28, 2020)

Little bit of politics there, ladies and gents


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

I'm glad I havent had time to get into all that shit. So many layers of that sorts of politics in the USA right now, a bunch of which are the last thing pandemic planners would want at this time.

Clear failings in regards US ability to deliver reliable test kits to a bunch of facilities across the nation in recent weeks too, they are badly behind due to problems with many of the kits. And the whistleblower implying the California quarantine was crappy.


----------



## pesh (Feb 28, 2020)

TheHoodedClaw said:


> Little bit of politics there, ladies and gents



you know this is going to age well


----------



## ska invita (Feb 28, 2020)

pesh said:


> you know this is going to age well


Like a fine petri dish


----------



## sheothebudworths (Feb 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> Thanks, though I never really know what to say to stuff like that. And I've not been trying to cover everything, eg I havent given running totals for countries. I'm mostly trying to pick the significant events/indicators. And my sources arent all that broad really, and lots of the unknowns might stay that way for ages. So there might be a lot of repetition here if the same themes keep coming up, especially if new people start joining in as the coronavirus starts to show up more on their radar.



Fwiw, I have really appreciated your posts and the obvious research you've undertaken elbows


----------



## prunus (Feb 28, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Fwiw, I have really appreciated your posts and the obvious research you've undertaken elbows



Seconded.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 28, 2020)

I have to feel a little sorry for the individuals and companies that have been working to finalise their exhibits at the Geneva Auto Show only to have it cancelled at the last minute.

Some of those companies spend a lot on their trade stands. I wonder if any of them have suitable insurance to recoup the costs? (mind you if they didn't this time they will be looking for such cover next time for sure!)


----------



## killer b (Feb 28, 2020)

Those poor automotive companies. Such a shame for them.


----------



## existentialist (Feb 28, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Trumps comment that he has the situation under control.
> 
> Slow down and try to digest replies rather than looking for your zinger moment.


Ahahahahaha, because that's absolutely NOT what you're doing with your "I predicted this ages ago" bullshit!


----------



## weltweit (Feb 28, 2020)

killer b said:


> Those poor automotive companies. Such a shame for them.


Seriously, there will be some individuals and contractors who will have worked months on this show, an effort that was about to bear fruit with the opening of the show. I know how much work goes into it because I did that sort of thing a couple of times years ago.


----------



## killer b (Feb 28, 2020)

oh well.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 28, 2020)

killer b said:


> oh well.


Never mind


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 28, 2020)

existentialist said:


> Ahahahahaha, because that's absolutely NOT what you're doing with your "I predicted this ages ago" bullshit!



Ive done no such thing - however - and I’m not blowing my own trumpet - I did accurately predict this virus would be politicised against Trump before it transpired (just for the record).


----------



## existentialist (Feb 28, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Ive done no such thing - however - and I’m not blowing my own trumpet - I did accurately predict this virus would be politicised against Trump before it transpired (just for the record).


Enjoy your zinger moment.


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

Hopefully we will soon be past peak WHO do you think you are?

I dont think I need to repeat all of my previous remarks in order to indicate why I am thinking their current stance is increasingly counterproductive.









						Coronavirus: Risk of spread upgraded to highest level
					

The World Health Organization says healthcare systems are still unprepared, but containment is possible.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> Dr Ryan also stressed that current data information does not suggest the virus has become a global pandemic.
> 
> "If we say there's a pandemic of coronavirus, we're essentially accepting that every human on the planet will be exposed," he said. "The data does not support that as yet and China has clearly shown that that's not necessarily the natural outcome of this event if we take action."





> Dr Tedros reiterated that the spread had the potential to become a pandemic, but cautioned against unnecessary panic.
> 
> "Our greatest enemy right now is not the virus itself, it's fear, rumours and stigma," he said.



Pandemics are human stories, and much of the horror is about human behaviour, true. But I just dont think this sort of talk actually helps much with the fear, rumours and stigma. And I dont care which element wins the award for 'greatest enemy'. Its the virus that drives the story and is the underlying threat. Yes it will be magnified or tackled via human decisions made in the past, the present and the future. But you could win a war against the infodemic, the fear, the panic and the stigma without winning anything in the struggle against the virus itself.

They really do want to have their cake and eat it this time. But I'll save more on that thought for another day.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Feb 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> Hopefully we will soon be past peak WHO do you think you are?
> 
> I dont think I need to repeat all of my previous remarks in order to indicate why I am thinking their current stance is increasingly counterproductive.
> 
> ...



Yes, it's so obviously contradictory and without the benefit of any (possibly short-term) _future_ knowledge, when there are already very obvious lessons to be taken from the length of incubation etc, let alone on the possibility that Wuhan wasn't at the centre.

elbows - I did also mean to say that I hope you're taking proper breaks! 
Also that I don't think you should feel obliged to post links to your previous posts, or explain the same thing multiple times, if/when people haven't bothered reading through them all themselves. I get why you're doing it - but you're also doing more than enough already.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Feb 28, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> @elbows - I did also mean to say that I hope you're taking proper breaks!


And washing his hands!


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

Cheers. The way I tacked things in February is not going to be sustained, I'll be changing phase myself at some point in the next, I dunno, 10 days. There will be less repetition eventually too. Especially since a lot of what I've been saying was quickly built on top of past learning I did in 2005 and then what I learnt, observed and said the last time round in 2009. As the effects of this coronavirus on civilisation travel off in a different direction, I will quickly reach the point where my past observations and themes become less relevant. If I've been something of a guide then this is only for the pre-pandemic phase really, I dont intend to stick out as a particular contributor to this thread once things have reached a different point, I'll have less of use to offer then.


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Yes, it's so obviously contradictory and without the benefit of any (possibly short-term) _future_ knowledge, when there are already very obvious lessons to be taken from the length of incubation etc, let alone on the possibility that Wuhan wasn't at the centre.



Oh I dont know what you mean about Wuhan not being at the centre. Such ideas are only on the vague periphery of my radar at most, and the genetic-based report the other day was going on about 2 possible clades in Wuhan, and non-seafood market starting point, but not a non-Wuhan starting point. And Wuhan was the centre of the original epidemic, even if there is some prior part of the story that has eluded all but the most speculative of theories so far, Wuhan still counts as the centre for me.

Having said that, there isnt much that would surprise me if completely new evidence emerged. The timing of certain things might yet be reevaluated one day, but right now these are minor details to me, compared to the challenge of dealing with the reality that is slowly emerging that we have to respond to.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 28, 2020)

So, Wales has its first infected individual. 

Apparently they recently came back from Italy, so that is fine. 

They probably caught it in Italy no? 

Well I hope their thought process and investigations go further than, been to Italy there you have it, because it is possible that they came back from Italy hale and hearty and caught their virus in Wales!


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 28, 2020)

So, I've been thinking about the numbers again. I'm on a train trying to pass time so this is all just speculative stuff to pas some time.

So, China's population is insane...1 in 5 people are Chinese I think? Google says it's 1.386 billion currently.

The 'confirmed' Covid-19 case numbers are 78,824 for China.

That's 0.00577200577 per cent, or half of a thousandth of a per cent of people in China were/are infected. Most of those are concentrated in Hubai, I believe, but it doesn't matter for the kind of thing I'm trying to work out.

Apparently the R0 for SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to be between 2 and 3 currently.

We know the incubation period is about 10-20 days, and so it seems unlikely that the virus is contagious during incubation if we're sticking with R0 of 2 or 3. Incubation means no sneezing etc, so obviously some of the main transmission vectors aren't happening, but still - I probably share more beers ("Try this. Sure, let's have a taste of yours", etc) than that in a 3 week period, meaning I'd defo pass it on from IPA tasting alone!

I think that means it's probably only contagious during the symptomatic stage. And I think once in recovery, that must stop, too. Otherwise, we'd have 30-odd thousand people who have 'recovered' back in the community infecting even more people.  And I don't think we're seeing that kind of exponential growth in new cases. It feels like we're going through an exponential growth stage in Europe/RoW, but China seems to be linear.

At least reported cases.

There's a point to all this speculation. I'm just trying to think how to tie it all togeher.

I reckon there must be way, WAY, more cases than 80k worldwide to see the spread we're seeing worldwide. If we're up to 100s of thousands of infections in Iran, and thousands of cases in Italy, how can we be 'only' 80k in China, given the length of time it's been there, and the population density of the places it's in.

We're at 20 confirmed cases in the UK now, but only a handful seem to be community spread. They're all spread out though, meaning we're like at hundreds of cases here already, if not 1,000s - undetected for now, of course.

Even such a small amount of cases though seems unlikely given the tiny fraction of cases in China compared to their population.

Our cases are 2.5 × 10-5 percent of the population so far, btw, so maybe it is right. That's a tiny, tiny number.

Anyway, it's my stop now so gonna leave this rambling here in the hope that someone will pick it up/put some meat on it/shoot down my back-of-fag-packet calcs.

Happy Friday, Urbz


----------



## sheothebudworths (Feb 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> Oh I dont know what you mean about Wuhan not being at the centre. Such ideas are only on the vague periphery of my radar at most, and the genetic-based report the other day was going on about 2 possible clades in Wuhan, and non-seafood market starting point, but not a non-Wuhan starting point. And Wuhan was the centre of the original epidemic, even if there is some prior part of the story that has eluded all but the most speculative of theories so far, Wuhan still counts as the centre for me.
> 
> Having said that, there isnt much that would surprise me if completely new evidence emerged. The timing of certain things might yet be reevaluated one day, but right now these are minor details to me, compared to the challenge of dealing with the reality that is slowly emerging that we have to respond to.



Apologies, as if to prove my own point, lol (ignoring factual, rational information etc).
Sorry for making you have to repeat that


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> I reckon there must be way, WAY, more cases than 80k worldwide to see the spread we're seeing worldwide. If we're up to 100s of thousands of infections in Iran, and thousands of cases in Italy, how can we be 'only' 80k in China, given the length of time it's been there, and the population density of the places it's in.



Its one of the unanswered questions of February.

I still havent read the WHO-China team report yet, but if I go by the thing Bruce Aylward said in his press conference earlier this week, the WHO contends that the extreme containment/mitigation steps that China took are responsible for the way their numbers have gone.

So its a question of whether that is the correct interpretation of the China numbers or not. Maybe there are things wrong with the data, maybe there are some other unknown factors, maybe its a combination of factors including milder versions of some of our guesses.

We probably only get the answer when we see more weeks of the story of other countries, countries that try similar sorts of drastic social distancing and travel restrictions, and countries that dont. And what the numbers inside China do once their staggered return to work picks up more pace.

I did not want this virus to spread all over the place but since it has, we will at least be able to get data from so many countries that we should be able to rule in or out any dramatic meddling of data/trends, regime and politics stuff, etc. Certain surveillance and estimating limitations probably exist everywhere though, so I'm not claiming we will suddenly get a stunningly clear picture, and of course certain forms of, err, data massage may be common to multiple states.


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Apologies, as if to prove my own point, lol (ignoring factual, rational information etc).
> Sorry for making you have to repeat that



There might be something rational in what you said, and I'm pretty sure there are articles I have missed out on reading recently. And I do keep a rather open mind overall, its just that priorities right now require zooming in on areas that I dont consider to be too close to that sort of speculation about origins.

But some of that may just be personal taste. The area I favour speculating about still regards quantity of mild cases. But I'm too tired right now to go there, maybe sometime over the weekend.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Feb 28, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> I think that means it's probably only contagious during the symptomatic stage. And I think once in recovery, that must stop, too. Otherwise, we'd have 30-odd thousand people who have 'recovered' back in the community infecting even more people.  And I don't think we're seeing that kind of exponential growth in new cases. It feels like we're going through an exponential growth stage in Europe/RoW, but China seems to be linear.



Isn't it just too _early_ to make those assumptions, though - and with China having locked down, too?


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 28, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Isn't it just too _early_ to make those assumptions, though - and with China having locked down, too?


My assumption is based off the official figures. I think either it's a sound assumption or the figures are way, way off.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 28, 2020)

Regarding data from China, the Epoch Times FaLun Gong newspaper had a leak from Shandong province a couple of days ago with zip files attached underneath.
Its overall conclusions extrapolating from one province are that figures of infected are 6倍以上 at least 6 times more than officially reported.

I can't verify the documents (who can though?) but my instinct is to trust it, I refrained from posting because previously reliable tweeters have probably been duped with false information.

Link here for those interested: 【獨家】山東內部文件：確診數是公布的數倍 - 大紀元


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well I hope their thought process and investigations go further than, been to Italy there you have it, because it is possible that they came back from Italy hale and hearty and caught their virus in Wales!



It is not possible for them to determine that. So such cases will always assume to be travel/contact related, unless something not a part of this routine just happens to turn up that somehow proves otherwise.

What they use to determine that there are signs of wider community spread, are cases where they know travel/contacts/known clusters arent involved.

Which is mostly fine, because the purpose of detecting wider community spread is not to find every case of it. If it is happening at levels they care about, some signs of it will still be picked up via various forms of surveillance, in the same way surveys are done using a small subset of the population.

Its not starting that surveillance soon enough that can be the issue, as opposed to having to rule out some potential candidates because they have a travel history as well. Cases with such doubts are no use, so you just disregard them as not being useful to explore the subject of community transmission.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 28, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Regarding data from China, the Epoch Times FaLun Gong newspaper had a leak from Shandong province a couple of days ago with zip files attached underneath.
> Its overall conclusions extrapolating from one province are that figures of infected are 6倍以上 at least 6 times more than officially reported.
> 
> I can't verify the documents (who can though?) but my instinct is to trust it, I refrained from posting because previously reliable tweeters have probably been duped with false information.
> ...


That makes half a million. I would say that sounds more likely than what is officially reported. Even that might be 'low'


----------



## Treacle Toes (Feb 28, 2020)

What I personally want to know and have read/heard nothing about is how many people contract the virus and survive? This is important information and needs to be factored into any 'pandemic' equation information.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 28, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> What I personally want to know and have read/heard nothing about is how many people contract the virus and survive? This is important information and needs to be factored into any 'pandemic' equation information.


It's on the Wikipedia page..there's a handy chart (based on WHO figures)

Currently, it's 80k-ish infections across the world, 30k recovered. 2.5k dead, the rest still ill/infected.

I'll dig the link out for you in a sec..


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 28, 2020)

Here you go : 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak - Wikipedia


----------



## sihhi (Feb 28, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> It's on the Wikipedia page..there's a handy chart (based on WHO figures)
> 
> Currently, it's 80k-ish infections across the world, 30k recovered. 2.5k dead, the rest still ill/infected.
> 
> I'll dig the link out for you in a sec..



Current stats for China are 36311 recovered 2791 dead.


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> We're at 20 confirmed cases in the UK now, but only a handful seem to be community spread. They're all spread out though, meaning we're like at hundreds of cases here already, if not 1,000s - undetected for now, of course.



This evenings case is the first one they found that could count in that category.

I am only just reading the BBC article about it and I'm assuming its the case the Guardian said was a GP earlier, havent checked that aspect out yet to see what the story is there.









						Coronavirus: Latest patient was first to be infected in UK
					

It is unclear how the Surrey man caught the virus, with no obvious link to overseas travel, officials say.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




So yeah, this is potentially a key moment for the UK in terms of detection and awareness of what stage we have reached (which obviously lags some distance behind reality).



> Who did this man catch the virus from?
> 
> This is the urgent question that needs answering about the 20th case in the UK.
> 
> ...





> This could be an "outbreak of two" - with just one other, still to be identified, person that caught coronavirus abroad.
> 
> Or is this the first case to be detected from a much larger outbreak? We know this can happen, Italian scientists believe the virus was circulating there unnoticed for weeks.
> 
> For now, we simply do not know, but this is a scenario officials have been preparing for.


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 28, 2020)

> *Prof Jonathan Ball, Professor of Molecular Virology, University of Nottingham, said:*
> 
> “This case – a person testing positive for novel coronavirus with no known link to an affected area or known case – marks a new chapter for the UK, and it will be crucial to understand where the infection came from to try and prevent more extensive spread.”







__





						expert reaction to new UK case of COVID-19, where transmission occurred within the UK | Science Media Centre
					





					www.sciencemediacentre.org
				




We should expect an explosion of cases with 2-3 weeks domestically...if I was looking into my crystal ball.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> This evenings case is the first one they found that could count in that category.
> 
> I am only just reading the BBC article about it and I'm assuming its the case the Guardian said was a GP earlier, havent checked that aspect out yet to see what the story is there.
> 
> ...



BBC article has him as a _patient _

He was a patient at Haslemere Health Centre in Surrey which has been closed for "deep cleaning" since Friday morning.


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> I'm assuming its the case the Guardian said was a GP earlier, havent checked that aspect out yet to see what the story is there.



The Guardian updated their story, the GP is another possible case. Maybe linked to the one that was actually announced this evening, for all I know.


----------



## Fez909 (Feb 28, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


2-3 days I reckon


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2020)

Coronavirus may have been in Italy for weeks before it was detected
					

Test results worry experts as new cases emerge in Nigeria, Mexico and New Zealand




					www.theguardian.com
				






> “I can’t absolutely confirm any safe estimate of the time of the circulation of the virus in Italy, but … some first evidence suggest that the circulation of the virus is not so recent in Italy,” he said, amid suggestions the virus may have been present since mid-January.





> The beginnings of the outbreak, which has now infected more than 821 people in the country and has spread from Italy across Europe, were probably seeded at least two or three weeks before the first detection and possibly before flights between Italy and China were suspended at the end of January, say experts



No shit, Italy started to detect deaths at the same time as the cluster, so of course it had been there for weeks. And at some scale now, judging by the number of cases that have been found in other countries after people returned from parts of Italy.

If there was one thing I wanted to make clear this month it was this sort of possibility of how the story would evolve around the world. Sometimes I wonder if I went too easy on it, I didnt exactly spend half my time posting about how many cases the UK might actually be experiencing all throughout February.

I meant it when I made reference to 'seek and you shall' find the other day. It felt closer and we changed our criteria for suspicion of cases, and also the bigger it gets over time the more likely we are to notice it. I wouldnt like to provide UK estimates for how long ago, what size a week ago, now, or in a week. It is reasonable to expect much more news on this front in the days ahead. And the timing compared to other countries does tend to suggest that now is the time. At least to the extent that if we were still sitting around in early-mid March without an outbreak here, I would be wondering what the story was and searching for an explanation.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 28, 2020)

The lesson from China is run ahead, do it sooner rather than later.

_Zhang suggested that all foreign countries and regions with imported cases take precautionary measures "to run ahead" and prevent a large-scale spread among the community.

"When there's a considerable number of secondary and tertiary infection cases or those with unknown origins in a city, the situation will become dangerous as it's difficult to conduct tracing. Plus, very few countries can adopt a containment strategy that is as aggressive as China's," he said._

The same virologist made this categorisation:

Three outcome scenarios: one good, one bad, one ugly

_Scenario 1: Win
“This would entail no patients still requiring treatment after two to four weeks, and controlling the epidemic within two to three months. This, of course, is the most optimistic situation.”

Scenario 2: Hold
“This means we partially control the epidemic, with cases continuing to climb, but at a mild rate. The anti-epidemic measures (under this scenario) might last from six months to one year, as was the case with SARS.”

Scenario 3: Failure
“This means the new virus would evolve to become a recurring seasonal disease,” Zhang said, adding that such an outcome would be “so dangerous.”_

I think we are on course to be Scenario 3 unless non pharmaceutical measures are rapidly instituted.


----------



## little_legs (Feb 29, 2020)

Apologies if this is not the relevant thread. 

What would you, good folks, do if you had a week booked in Tuscany for the end of April, would you cancel it? I still have the time to cancel but I really don't want to. 

Thank you


----------



## elbows (Feb 29, 2020)

I see a new BBC piece covers various aspects of figuring out the death rate that we've talked about in this thread:









						Coronavirus death rate: What are the chances of dying?
					

The current best guess of a 1% death rate does not apply to everyone.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## existentialist (Feb 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> I see a new BBC piece covers various aspects of figuring out the death rate that we've talked about in this thread:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Do you think they're following urban75?


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 29, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Apologies if this is not the relevant thread.
> 
> What would you, good folks, do if you had a week booked in Tuscany for the end of April, would you cancel it? I still have the time to cancel but I really don't want to.
> 
> Thank you



Looks like there’ll be fewer middle class next year.


----------



## little_legs (Feb 29, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Looks like there’ll be fewer middle class next year.


Who is this cunt?


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 29, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Who is this cunt?



Chat shit, get banged.


----------



## little_legs (Feb 29, 2020)

Shut the fuck up. Piece of shit. As per usual, this place never fails to attract clowns.


----------



## Wilf (Feb 29, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Apologies if this is not the relevant thread.
> 
> What would you, good folks, do if you had a week booked in Tuscany for the end of April, would you cancel it? I still have the time to cancel but I really don't want to.
> 
> Thank you


No idea, sorry. Only thing I'd say is, as things stand, there's relatively little risk from going and being affected by the actual virus. The bigger issue would be if in another few weeks things got worse they started closing airports or banning travel. So it would be more an issue of making sure you don't lose your money/checking your insurance policy. We were thinking of trying to get in week in Fuertaventura around the same time so will be thinking about the same issues.


----------



## editor (Feb 29, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Looks like there’ll be fewer middle class next year.


Thank you for your final contribution to this thread.


----------



## Wilf (Feb 29, 2020)

editor said:


> Thank you for your final contribution to this thread.


This time I heartily endorse your threadban.


----------



## little_legs (Feb 29, 2020)

Wilf said:


> No idea, sorry. Only thing I'd say is, as things stand, there's relatively little risk from going and being affected by the actual virus. The bigger issue would be if in another few weeks things got worse they started closing airports or banning travel. So it would be more an issue of making sure you don't lose your money/checking your insurance policy. We were thinking of trying to get in week in Fuertaventura around the same time so will be thinking about the same issues.



Appreciate your advice, Wilf. I think I am going to cancel tomorrow morning. This was going to be a walking holiday and at first I was like, no way I am cancelling this, it'll blow over, but after keeping an eye for over a week on the FCO's website and seeing people stuck in hotels, I realised that I can't possibly afford being stuck somewhere.

Sadly I got by never buying travel insurance, maybe it's time to start taking a different approach.


----------



## little_legs (Feb 29, 2020)

Can I just say a thank you to editor here, he occasionally gets a lot flack from folks using this site, myself included, he was on the end of my wrath several times. I appreciate you taking action over a reported post, sir.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 29, 2020)

.


Wilf said:


> No idea, sorry. Only thing I'd say is, as things stand, there's relatively little risk from going and being affected by the actual virus. The bigger issue would be if in another few weeks things got worse they started closing airports or banning travel. So it would be more an issue of making sure you don't lose your money/checking your insurance policy. We were thinking of trying to get in week in Fuertaventura around the same time so will be thinking about the same issues.



We’re also booked for Fuertaventura in April for 10 days.  Feels pretty sketchy but kids are really excited and don’t think we can get a full refund unless the govt advise against flying there.


----------



## Wilf (Feb 29, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Appreciate your advice, Wilf. I think I am going to cancel tomorrow morning. This was going to be a walking holiday and at first I was like, no way I am cancelling this, it'll blow over, but after keeping an eye for over a week on the FCO's website and seeing people stuck in hotels, I realised that I can't possibly afford being stuck somewhere.
> 
> Sadly I got by never buying travel insurance, maybe it's time to start taking a different approach.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 29, 2020)

Not sure if already posted on here already but Nigeria now has its first case of Coronavirus, somebody who had flown in from Italy.









						Coronavirus: Nigeria confirms first case in sub-Saharan Africa
					

The Italian citizen had returned from Milan, in a region badly hit by the outbreak of the virus.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 29, 2020)

.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 29, 2020)

Artaxerxes said:


> Azathiropone at a minimum for crohns.
> 
> I’m also on allopurinol to supplement it.



I'm on azathioprine too. Plus prednisolone. 
Was warned not to take alloplurinol as interaction with azathioprine. My da is on alloplurinol so when I'm at my parent's place I've to keep my meds in my bag. Just in case there's a mix up.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Feb 29, 2020)

Went to the shop earlier to buy disinfectant. Got the last 2 bottles of dettol spray.
Only one case so far in all Ireland. A woman who flew in from Italy to Dublin airport and then travelled on to Belfast. Apparently aer lingus only notified the people 2 rows in front and 2 rows behind her on the plane to go into quarantine. And the cabin crew. 

Why not contact everyone on the plane??


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 29, 2020)

Explainer: Coronavirus reappears in discharged patients, raising questions in containment fight
					

A growing number of discharged coronavirus patients in China and elsewhere are testing positive after recovering, sometimes weeks after being allowed to leave the hospital, which could make the epidemic harder to eradicate.




					www.reuters.com
				



Interesting article about people getting reinfected after being given the all clear. Is it biphasic or are they not being tested properly before discharge?



> Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at Britain’s University of East Anglia who has been closely following the outbreak, told Reuters that although the patient in Osaka could have relapsed, it is also possible that the virus was still being released into her system from the initial infection, and she wasn’t tested properly before she was discharged.
> 
> A Journal of the American Medical Association study of four infected medical personnel treated in Wuhan, the epicenter of the epidemic, said it was likely that some recovered patients would remain carriers even after meeting discharge criteria.
> 
> ...


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 29, 2020)

In response to people asking if they should still travel internationally over the coming weeks, as someone who flew to South Korea when cases were still low, to get away from the situation in China, but then, when cases abruptly skyrocketed, had to pretty much lock down in a hotel room there until we could fly to England, I would not travel internationally again at this point. The space between everything being fine and everything being fucked and borders closing and flights being cancelled is very short and very frightening. I've been in two countries where that happened now and I'm a nervous wreck.

Edit - I would fly into China if they'd have me, but nowhere else now.


----------



## Jay Park (Feb 29, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> In response to people asking if they should still travel internationally over the coming weeks, as someone who flew to South Korea when cases were still low, to get away from the situation in China, but then, when cases abruptly skyrocketed, had to pretty much lock down in a hotel room there until we could fly to England, I would not travel internationally again at this point. The space between everything being fine and everything being fucked and borders closing and flights being cancelled is very short and very frightening. I've been in two countries where that happened now and I'm a nervous wreck.
> 
> Edit - I would fly into China if they'd have me, but nowhere else now.



struggling to see the logic of not flying internationally unless it was the Middle Kingdom


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 29, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> In response to people asking if they should still travel internationally over the coming weeks, as someone who flew to South Korea when cases were still low, to get away from the situation in China, but then, when cases abruptly skyrocketed, had to pretty much lock down in a hotel room there until we could fly to England, I would not travel internationally again at this point. The space between everything being fine and everything being fucked and borders closing and flights being cancelled is very short and very frightening. I've been in two countries where that happened now and I'm a nervous wreck.





Jay Park said:


> struggling to see the logic of not flying internationally unless it was the Middle Kingdom



Because I live in China. My things are there. My life is there. And at the moment, I can't get back in without being taken away by the Center of Prevention and Control of Disease because I've been in South Korea. I'm just hoping and hoping I can make it through two weeks in England without it becoming the next country China doesn't want visitors from.  If we'd gone to Vietnam instead of South Korea, we'd be home by now.  But by the time that was apparent, Vietnam didn't want visitors from South Korea either.


----------



## Jay Park (Feb 29, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Because I live in China. My things are there. My life is there. And at the moment, I can't get back in without being taken away by the Center of Prevention and Control of Disease because I've been in South Korea. I'm just hoping and hoping I can make it through two weeks in England without it becoming the next country China doesn't want visitors from.  If we'd gone to Vietnam instead of South Korea, we'd be home by now.  But by the time that was apparent, Vietnam didn't want visitors from South Korea either.



Isn’t China locked down though?


----------



## Jay Park (Feb 29, 2020)

Also you should count yourself lucky that you are able to travel without hinderence and sit it out for a period. One poor fella passed away and his Grandson was left eating biscuits all alone.


----------



## Tankus (Feb 29, 2020)

not bothering going to Spain this year  


Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> In response to people asking if they should still travel internationally over the coming weeks, as someone who flew to South Korea when cases were still low, to get away from the situation in China, but then, when cases abruptly skyrocketed, had to pretty much lock down in a hotel room there until we could fly to England, I would not travel internationally again at this point. The space between everything being fine and everything being fucked and borders closing and flights being cancelled is very short and very frightening. I've been in two countries where that happened now and I'm a nervous wreck.
> 
> Edit - I would fly into China if they'd have me, but nowhere else now.


just not worth the stress ....

On the flip side   My gardens going to get a new shed


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 29, 2020)

Jay Park said:


> Isn’t China locked down though?



Not in the way you think, no. Hubei province is locked down. Some places are almost up and running. Most places outside Hubei, you can leave your apartment, even if most things bar supermarkets have been closed, and it never stopped being that way. The whole country was never under house arrest, there were just very heavy measures for social distancing. My local pilates studio just got permission to offer 1-1 classes as of this week. My hairdresser is allowed to take three clients a day, with no overlap. Our local shopping mall is open from 10- 16:00 every day now. Ironically, China is probably safe now. They've been through the worst. We were on vacation in China when this virus broke out. We went back to our apartment to get some stuff, but then headed out of the country. I haven't been properly home since 12th January.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 29, 2020)

Jay Park said:


> Also you should count yourself lucky that you are able to travel without hinderence and sit it out for a period. One poor fella passed away and his Grandson was left eating biscuits all alone.



Of course we count ourselves as incredibly privileged. Daily. That is never far from my mind.


----------



## Jay Park (Feb 29, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Not in the way you think, no. Hubei province is locked down. Some places are almost up and running. Most places outside Hubei, you can leave your apartment, even if most things bar supermarkets have been closed, and it never stopped being that way. The whole country was never under house arrest, there were just very heavy measures for social distancing. My local pilates studio just got permission to offer 1-1 classes as of this week. My hairdresser is allowed to take three clients a day, with no overlap. Our local shopping mall is open from 10- 16:00 every day now. Ironically, China is probably safe now. They've been through the worst. We were on vacation in China when this virus broke out. We went back to our apartment to get some stuff, but then headed out of the country. I haven't been properly home since 12th January.



I hope that the worst has come to pass, all the best for you and yours.


----------



## sunnysidedown (Feb 29, 2020)

editor said:


> Thank you for your final contribution to this thread.



pathetic. PT has made some good posts on this thread.


----------



## Dandred (Feb 29, 2020)

Korean woman reinfected with coronavirus after recovery
					

South Korea reported its first case of reinfection by the new coronavirus Saturday amid mounting concerns over the rapid rise in infections here. A South Korean woman tested positive for COVID-19 for a second time, even after being released from quarantine, according to the Korea Centers for...




					www.koreatimes.co.kr


----------



## 2hats (Feb 29, 2020)

little_legs said:


> What would you, good folks, do if you had a week booked in Tuscany for the end of April, would you cancel it? I still have the time to cancel but I really don't want to.


Wait until the end of the cancellation window to make a decision; the situation is very dynamic. By then airlines or authorities may have solved it for you (flight suspensions, travel bans) and you could recover money via refunds and/or insurance.


little_legs said:


> Sadly I got by never buying travel insurance, maybe it's time to start taking a different approach.


Travel insurance is one of the few I bother buying. Lots of factors are beyond your control when travelling and costs always have the potential to spiral.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 29, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> .
> 
> 
> We’re also booked for Fuertaventura in April for 10 days.  Feels pretty sketchy but kids are really excited and don’t think we can get a full refund unless the govt advise against flying there.



Not just for you, but for all of us with holiday trips booked it’s going to be worth checking the cancellation policy and noting if there are time bands affecting the refund amount. Eg cancel more than 60 days before travel, get 75% back. 45-60 days before travel, 50% refund and less than 45 days only 25%.

I have a trip to Spain lined up for late May and have to make my go/no go choice by late March if I’m to limit the damage to just losing 25% of the booking amount. Taking it to the wire and finding out at the last minute that travel just isn’t possible and the travel insurance doesn’t cover pandemics under the “force majeure” clause does not appeal to me much.

And I know some people are going to think I’m being ridiculous and that of course people can still fly off on their summer hols later this year, but I wouldn’t count on it. I don’t think there are many Chinese taking foreign holidays at the moment, and they’re only 8-10 weeks ahead of us in this thing.


----------



## baldrick (Feb 29, 2020)

I think it might be helpful if people read the thread and stop posting things we already know about. I know this is a petty gripe but I'm finding it increasingly irritating.


----------



## kenny g (Feb 29, 2020)

baldrick said:


> I think it might be helpful if people read the thread and stop posting things we already know about. I know this is a petty gripe but I'm finding it increasingly irritating.



I am sure this point has already been made elsewhere.


----------



## kenny g (Feb 29, 2020)

Seeing the piss poor PPE this fellow has been provided with I am not surprised the virus is spreading in Japan.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 29, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Apologies if this is not the relevant thread.
> 
> What would you, good folks, do if you had a week booked in Tuscany for the end of April, would you cancel it? I still have the time to cancel but I really don't want to.
> 
> Thank you


Hi little_legs, I would probably cancel. 
At the moment Italy is a risky country. 

If the situation improves enough by then you will probably be able to rebook because there will be lots of vacant properties I would expect.


----------



## krtek a houby (Feb 29, 2020)

So now there's a rush on bog roll because of fake rumours that supplies are short. Hand disinfectant is short, though, as my friend is finding out at her place of work. They sold out of all their bottles and the company that supplies her can only make a couple of thousand each week. She now has to field angry calls from customers asking what the delay is. And also how to use the bottles when they get them


----------



## LDC (Feb 29, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Not just for you, but for all of us with holiday trips booked it’s going to be worth checking the cancellation policy and noting if there are time bands affecting the refund amount. Eg cancel more than 60 days before travel, get 75% back. 45-60 days before travel, 50% refund and less than 45 days only 25%.
> 
> I have a trip to Spain lined up for late May and have to make my go/no go choice by late March if I’m to limit the damage to just losing 25% of the booking amount. Taking it to the wire and finding out at the last minute that travel just isn’t possible and the travel insurance doesn’t cover pandemics under the “force majeure” clause does not appeal to me much.
> 
> And I know some people are going to think I’m being ridiculous and that of course people can still fly off on their summer hols later this year, but I wouldn’t count on it. I don’t think there are many Chinese taking foreign holidays at the moment, and they’re only 8-10 weeks ahead of us in this thing.



Yeah, I'm due to go to Greece overland (via Milan) for 2 weeks in early July. I've not booked travel yet, and if things carry on this way it won't be happening I suspect. To save clogging up this one maybe having a new thread for things people are doing/not doing might be interesting...?


----------



## bimble (Feb 29, 2020)

Just spoke to my old dad who flew home yesterday (Milan his nearest airport). Said everything was fine but flight was only a third full which is very not normal.
I’m so relieved they (my folks) are not panicked at all.


----------



## Edie (Feb 29, 2020)

Does anyone know where to get 3M 8612F Particulate Respirator N95 face masks? They appear to be completely sold out on the internet as far as I can see, and I would like to buy some.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Feb 29, 2020)

Edie said:


> Does anyone know where to get 3M 8612F Particulate Respirator N95 face masks? They appear to be completely sold out on the internet as far as I can see, and I would like to buy some.



They are also known as FFP3 masks in the UK and Europe, if that helps you on your search. N95 is the American rating.


----------



## Edie (Feb 29, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> They are also known as FFP3 masks in the UK and Europe, if that helps you on your search. N95 is the American rating.


Not having any luck there either, but ta


----------



## krtek a houby (Feb 29, 2020)

38% of Americans won't buy Corona beer because of the virus

The spread of the coronavirus couldn't have come at a worse time for Corona beer

Don't blame them, tbh. It's bottled piss.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 29, 2020)

I haven't heard that Britain is restricting entry from any country, is that right? 

Anyhow if not, we are definitely going to get infected people coming in from abroad. And they will infect people while they are here, it just seems like common sense?


----------



## Artaxerxes (Feb 29, 2020)

Holiday in Finland in a few days.

Hopefully they won't let me back in the UK.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 29, 2020)

Turkey has opened their border to the European frontier.  Migrants/refugees are heading towards Greece.



> Some wore face masks, in an apparent attempt to guard against the coronavirus outbreak now sweeping the world and adding to the concerns of hard-pressed European authorities.











						'Europe is nicer': migrants head west after Turkey opens border
					

Hundreds of migrants in Turkey started arriving on the borders with Greece and Bulgaria on Friday after a senior Turkish official said Ankara would no longer abide by a 2016 EU deal and stop refugees from reaching Europe.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## ice-is-forming (Feb 29, 2020)

Edie said:


> Not having any luck there either, but ta







__





						n95 mask: Search Result | eBay
					

Find great deals on eBay for n95 mask. Shop with confidence.



					www.ebay.co.uk


----------



## Edie (Feb 29, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Mate none of those are actually FFP3 masks


----------



## bendeus (Feb 29, 2020)

Edie said:


> Not having any luck there either, but ta


I bought some from Travis Perkins yesterday. Obviously going to vary from place to place but they hadn't had a run on them and had plenty on the shelves.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 29, 2020)

What's happening in South Korea?


> The spread of the virus there has been linked to the fringe Christian group Shincheonji Church.
> 
> Authorities believe members infected one another during services in Daegu and then fanned out around the country, apparently undetected.











						Coronavirus: Unexplained West Coast cases raise fears in US
					

Three cases involving people with no connection with affected countries are found on the West Coast.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## weltweit (Feb 29, 2020)

Unexplained West Coast cases raise fears in US


> Officials on the US West Coast have reported three unexplained coronavirus cases, raising concerns the virus could be spreading within the community.
> 
> The patients - in California, Oregon and Washington State - have no known connection to a badly hit country.
> 
> A total of 59 coronavirus cases have been confirmed in the US, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).


----------



## ice-is-forming (Feb 29, 2020)

Edie said:


> Mate none of those are actually FFP3 masks



The FFP3 = N100
FFP2 = N95

I had a read of this and concluded that N95 would be effective enough. I also spoke with my son's specialist who said the same. The N100 or FFP3 masks can actually make it very hard to breathe for an extended period. I know it's such a worry when your on methotrexate. Boy 3 is on a TNF. I think I saw some FFP 300 on Amazon though









						N95 vs FFP3 & FFP2 masks - what's the difference?
					

In light of Covid-19 we’ll look at the difference between respirator filtering standards such as N95 and FFP2/FFP3… Table of Contents1 Masks vs Respirators2 Respirator Standards2.1 N95 vs FFP3 & FFP22.2 KN95 vs N952.3 Valve vs Non-Valved Respirators2.4 How big […]




					fastlifehacks.com
				




Here's an FFP3 on.ebay UK
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Face-Mas...=1&hash=item365dfd6e31:g:oops:5wAAOSwH49eWWna


----------



## smmudge (Feb 29, 2020)

TopCat said:


> My gf is in Vietnam. notifiable country now?



I've been keeping an eye because we've booked a holiday there (maybe not the brightest idea but what will be will be and not putting our life on hold for something that may or may not happen). Tbh they seem pretty hot on it, had some cases (I think 16) but no deaths and quarantined a small community but no reports of it spreading more yet. They've been pretty strict about travel restrictions and quarantining visitors from Italy, Iran etc. 

I think some countries in the region are getting lumped together a bit as "east asia=bad" but it looks more like our biggest risk at the moment is it spreading here and us not getting let in at the vietnam border. Maybe I'm wrong but that's how it seems to me at the moment from searching.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 29, 2020)

I have not seen the gf in weeks and dont want to wait another fortnight.


----------



## elbows (Feb 29, 2020)

As discussed previously, seek and you shall find.



> The latest patient to be diagnosed with the virus and the GP who is feared to have it were both detected because the surgery where the doctor works is one of 100 practices where patients with breathing problems are now being routinely screened for Covid-19, the Guardian has been told.
> 
> They were identified as a result of mouth and nasal swabs that were being taken from every patient attending the surgery with flu-like symptoms by staff from Surrey University who specialise in the spread and epidemiology of influenza.



 46m ago 11:42


----------



## skyscraper101 (Feb 29, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Feb 29, 2020)

TopCat said:


> I have not seen the gf in weeks and dont want to wait another fortnight.



Perhaps the risk equation changes anyway, given that the virus is in the UK in unknown amounts already.

But obviously its a very personal judgement call. Personally I would not delay seeing the gf, so long as I was somewhat psychologically prepared for every eventuality and every possible 'with the benefit of hindsight' twist that might come along later. ie If I could do it without potentially driving myself crazy with regret later, I would not hesitate for long.


----------



## TopCat (Feb 29, 2020)

If she has a sniffle or a temp then no way. She is a nurse so knows how to check. Plus as you say, it's here now.


----------



## clicker (Feb 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> As discussed previously, seek and you shall find.
> 
> 
> 
> 46m ago 11:42


Is it feasible to 'routinely swab' the whole population of UK for example? Do all the 4 -18 year olds at school and set up walk in facilities for everyone else...at GP surgeries and pharmacies? Divert as many services as possible for maybe a month to give quick access and results. Would a clearer idea of its potential lead to better targeted help. Or is that just a logistical nightmare and total overkill?


----------



## Red Cat (Feb 29, 2020)

smmudge said:


> I've been keeping an eye because we've booked a holiday there (maybe not the brightest idea but what will be will be and not putting our life on hold for something that may or may not happen). Tbh they seem pretty hot on it, had some cases (I think 16) but no deaths and quarantined a small community but no reports of it spreading more yet. They've been pretty strict about travel restrictions and quarantining visitors from Italy, Iran etc.
> 
> I think some countries in the region are getting lumped together a bit as "east asia=bad" but it looks more like our biggest risk at the moment is it spreading here and us not getting let in at the vietnam border. Maybe I'm wrong but that's how it seems to me at the moment from searching.



I went to Vietnam and Cambodia during the Sars outbreak in 2003, it was reportedly much, much quieter than usual in terms of tourists, so I had a really good time. I don't recall being anxious at all, the risk was so low.


----------



## elbows (Feb 29, 2020)

clicker said:


> Is it feasible to 'routinely swab' the whole population of UK for example? Do all the 4 -18 year olds at school and set up walk in facilities for everyone else...at GP surgeries and pharmacies? Divert as many services as possible for maybe a month to give quick access and results. Would a clearer idea of its potential lead to better targeted help. Or is that just a logistical nightmare and total overkill?



Its not something that is ever considered as far as I know. There just isnt the capacity for that sort of thing, or anything even vaguely approaching it. And you have to be careful that you dont create new situations for people to mix and infect eachother, healthcare workers etc.

The aim of this wider community surveillence is not to detect every case, it is to build up a picture via a small sampling of the public who present with influenza-like illnesses, and also via some other methods such as checking patients with pneumonia.


----------



## elbows (Feb 29, 2020)

Life immitating art!


----------



## TopCat (Feb 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> Life immitating art!



Watch yourself. You might get reported for this post!


----------



## elbows (Feb 29, 2020)

I sort of wish I had seen the 2018 program!

Some of their modelling looks interesting:


----------



## weltweit (Feb 29, 2020)

Chinese manufacturing hits record low amid coronavirus outbreak


> Factory activity in China fell to a record low in February, as manufacturers closed their operations to contain the spread of coronavirus.
> 
> The country's official measure of manufacturing activity - the Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) - dropped to 35.7 from 50 in January.
> 
> ...











						Chinese manufacturing hits record low amid coronavirus outbreak
					

The latest economic data shows the virus is having a bigger impact than the 2008 financial crisis.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 29, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Feb 29, 2020)

Animations.


----------



## Jay Park (Feb 29, 2020)

kenny g said:


> Seeing the piss poor PPE this fellow has been provided with I am not surprised the virus is spreading in Japan.



nothing to do with proximity to where the virus originated or the hundreds of thousands of visitors it receives from there.

No, Dr. Health and Safety here has called it from scrutinising some pic of a part time zero hours worker on the waltzers, taken in 2000-nought-plonk.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Feb 29, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I have to feel a little sorry for the individuals and companies that have been working to finalise their exhibits at the Geneva Auto Show only to have it cancelled at the last minute.
> 
> Some of those companies spend a lot on their trade stands. I wonder if any of them have suitable insurance to recoup the costs? (mind you if they didn't this time they will be looking for such cover next time for sure!)



There are people I give more of a shit about tbh. Everyone else, for example.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 29, 2020)

Absolute shit situation just waiting for the numbers to increase Tenerife still not on the 111 list.
When we've had someone contract it there, wtf?
Jeremy Hunt yesterday saying things might get better in the summer (based on what?... increasing numbers of cases in very hot Singapore & Thailand)
Matt Hancock refusing to be interviewed on radio. 
Normalcy bias is what the experts call it.
Someone told me yesterday 'it's like your country has already surrendered'


Something cannot be 100% verified but I am inclined to believe 



Expat Chinese in America says 'my wife's high school classmate is the quarantine zone of Wuhan.
She and her husband are watching TV at home, discover that the building opposite has a flat where a dead body is being collected. They recorded this video. This isn't the first time.' 
我太太的高中同学在武汉疫区，夫妻两在家看电视时，发现对面楼的邻居家在收尸。他们录下了这一段儿。这不是第一次。

France banning indoor events with more than 5000 people plus large running races.

Schools in Oise where the 60 year old teacher coronavirus death was from will be closed from next week.

5 Serie A matches cancelled (why not all? some have asked according to Weibo)

Russia urges its citizens NOT to travel abroad anywhere - good advice I believe.

Hokkaido's emergency law can ban any group gathering will last until 19 March at least.

Japan's school closure request looks likely to be ignored by some cities which don't have confirmed cases.

Korea up to 3150 cases

China is a publishing a book English translation to be done too '2020 A Battle Against Epidemic'
疫战.


----------



## sihhi (Feb 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> Animations.



Don't need to talk, breathing is quite enough, plus China's guides all have 1.5 metres, goodness knows.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 29, 2020)

First Switzerland, now also France have banned large events.









						Coronavirus: France bans large indoors gatherings in bid to curb virus
					

The government prohibits gatherings of more than 5,000 people to try to stop coronavirus spreading.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## blameless77 (Feb 29, 2020)

This is doing the rounds - seems to be sensible advice!

IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
A friend's uncle, who graduated with a masters degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China), sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold
2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.
3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees. It hates the Sun.
4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.
5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.
6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. normal laundry detergent will kill it.
7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.
8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.
9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.
10. Can't emphasise enough - drink plenty of water!
THE SYMPTOMS
1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 29, 2020)

blameless77 said:


> This is doing the rounds - seems to be sensible advice!
> 
> IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
> A friend's uncle, who graduated with a masters degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China), sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
> ...



Facebook?


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 29, 2020)

> killed by a temperature of just 26/27 degrees


So it wouldn't survive in the human body then, which everyone knows is around 37 degrees.


----------



## Dan U (Feb 29, 2020)

1000 cases and 29 dead now in Italy according the guardian live blog

Big leap.


----------



## spring-peeper (Feb 29, 2020)

> THE SYMPTOMS
> 1. It will first infect the throat, so you'll have a sore throat lasting 3/4 days
> 2. The virus then blends into a nasal fluid that enters the trachea and then the lungs, causing pneumonia. This takes about 5/6 days further.
> 3. With the pneumonia comes high fever and difficulty in breathing.
> 4. The nasal congestion is not like the normal kind. You feel like you're drowning. It's imperative you then seek immediate attention.



So, does that mean that taking temperatures is not a good way to figure out if someone is contagious with the virus?
Temp only increases after 8 to 10 days....


----------



## Marty1 (Feb 29, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> First Switzerland, now also France have banned large events.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



 ‘Football matches are unaffected’


----------



## weltweit (Feb 29, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Facebook?





> so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.


But it is a virus not a bacteria.


----------



## Supine (Feb 29, 2020)

First death in the US just reported


----------



## sihhi (Feb 29, 2020)

Seems very suspect for a start, for a start not everyone with COVID has a sore throat.

Here is a table of symptoms of 1099 patients all across different parts of China have experienced:


----------



## prunus (Feb 29, 2020)

blameless77 said:


> This is doing the rounds - seems to be sensible advice!
> 
> IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
> A friend's uncle, who graduated with a masters degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China), sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance
> <cut so as not to repeat>



This seems to contain enough suspect information as to come under the heading of misinformation - please consider removing it?


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 29, 2020)

blameless77 said:


> This is doing the rounds - seems to be sensible advice!
> 
> IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT - CORONAVIRUS
> A friend's uncle, who graduated with a masters degree and who worked in Shenzhen Hospital (Guangdong Province, China), sent him the following notes on Coronavirus for guidance:
> ...



There’s a lot of problematic statements in this anonymous advice. We need to avoid sharing inauthentic, evidence free proclamations.

Depending on how much you are willing to research there are many good sources of info:

The CDC: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

The WHO: Coronavirus

LSHTM: COVID-19 | LSHTM

...and they have a digestible podcast: Videos, filmed lectures and podcasts | LSHTM

If you like a more involved read see The Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/

Imperial have a YouTube channel: J-IDEA

There’s many many more high quality sources of information. There is no need for anonymous social media misinformation.


----------



## elbows (Feb 29, 2020)

Supine said:


> First death in the US just reported


And the death was a case that they just discovered by the sounds of it.


> State and King county health officials said “new people [have been] identified with the infection, one of whom died”. They did not say how many new cases there were.


All part of the signs of community spread happening for some time, along with:


> Overnight, officials in California, Oregon and Washington confirmed new coronavirus cases in which patients were infected by unknown means.
> 
> The patients – an older northern California woman with chronic health conditions; a high school student in Everett, Washington; and an employee at a Portland, Oregon-area school – had not recently traveled overseas or had any known close contact with a traveler or an infected person, authorities said.











						Washington state officials confirm man in his 50s has died from coronavirus
					

Officials confirm patient who died was man – not a woman, as Donald Trump mistakenly said – who suffered from chronic illness




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## kenny g (Feb 29, 2020)

Jay Park said:


> nothing to do with proximity to where the virus originated or the hundreds of thousands of visitors it receives from there.
> 
> No, Dr. Health and Safety here has called it from scrutinising some pic of a part time zero hours worker on the waltzers, taken in 2000-nought-plonk.




You complete tool. The photo was taken today:









						Trump says US virus response 'most aggressive in modern history' – as it happened
					

US confirms first death in Washington state and strengthens travel advice, raising Iran and Italy to a level three.




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 29, 2020)

The Washington State stuff is a whole collection of bad news.



I can probably stop going on about 'seek and you shall find', criteria for suspecting cases, wider surveillance etc now that we have an example of a local health official there making the same point (with an additional point too because there were terrible delays getting working kits to many places in the USA)


----------



## weltweit (Feb 29, 2020)

Coronavirus: Misinformation and false medical advice spreads in Iran









						Coronavirus: Misinformation and false medical advice spreads in Iran
					

Misleading content and conspiracy theories appear on Iranian social media.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Lots of misinformation in Iran detailed in this article seem to mean that it is hard to know the actual position.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 29, 2020)

Coronavirus: Nasa images show China pollution clear amid slowdown

Fascinating satellite images show pollution pre and post Covid-19 









						Coronavirus: Nasa images show China pollution clear amid slowdown
					

Nasa says major decreases in nitrogen dioxide levels are "at least partly" linked to the outbreak.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Part-timah (Feb 29, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Coronavirus: Nasa images show China pollution clear amid slowdown
> 
> Fascinating satellite images show pollution pre and post Covid-19
> 
> ...



Imagine if we could reduce consumption by 2 months every year by everyone downing tools. We could use those this time to identify gaps of self sufficiency and automation on personal and regional levels.


----------



## Jay Park (Feb 29, 2020)

kenny g said:


> You complete tool. The photo was taken today:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



the lad is clearly sizing up launching an origami dart. What does that tell us?


----------



## sihhi (Feb 29, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Coronavirus: Misinformation and false medical advice spreads in Iran
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Iran apparently will quarantine Qom.

A twitter thread of stuff from Iran: Thread by @aliostad: Coronavirus epidemy in Iran has past the crisis level. The country is imploding - law and order to disappear in the next days. A number of o…

This will happen to Britain if action is not taken now, Dubai apparently is going very heavy all sorts of mass events cancelled.


----------



## extra dry (Mar 1, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Imagine if we could reduce consumption by 2 months every year by everyone downing tools. We could use those this time to identify gaps of self sufficiency and automation on personal and regional levels.


Robots don't get sick..some capitalist somewhere


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 1, 2020)

Jay Park said:


> the lad is clearly sizing up launching an origami dart. What does that tell us?



He’s a paper tiger?


----------



## Jay Park (Mar 1, 2020)

sihhi said:


> according to Weibo



Said nobody ever without a hint of irony


----------



## spring-peeper (Mar 1, 2020)

no longer relevant


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 1, 2020)

No insurance? That'll be $3,270 for a coronavirus test, go USA.  



> In the US, there’s always the risk of people not getting tested due to fear of medical bills. The Miami Herald reported that a man who had traveled to China and developed flu-like symptoms after returning home was charged $3,270 for diagnostic tests at the hospital (it turned out he had the flu). It’s easy to envision a scenario where many sick people avoid getting tested for Covid-19 because they fear what it’ll cost.











						The coronavirus diagnostic testing snafu, explained
					

The CDC admits the rollout of Covid-19 diagnostic tests "has not gone as smoothly as we would have liked."




					www.vox.com


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 1, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Seems very suspect for a start, for a start not everyone with COVID has a sore throat.
> 
> Here is a table of symptoms of 1099 patients all across different parts of China have experienced:



What does "Presence of Primary Composite End Point" mean? 

Is 'yes'  dead and 'no', not dead?


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 1, 2020)

Israeli firm unveils kit to diagnose coronavirus, as 2nd team works on a vaccine
					

Announcement of BATM kit comes as officials struggle to balance need for rapid testing and worries over false positives; science minister hails institute's progress toward vaccine




					www.timesofisrael.com
				




Looks like they will have a fast test ready within 8 weeks. 
They're also close to sorting a vaccine in the next few weeks. However it will obvs requires testing and clinical trials etc and won't be ready til next year. Maybe they could speed that up?


----------



## TopCat (Mar 1, 2020)

The first US death reported. Someone who had no obvious transmission path.

I think it will be an interesting juxtaposition between the Chinese and US responses to the outbreak.

In the red corner,  the Chinese, build a multi thousand bed hospital in days.

In the blue corner, the United States, watch as they leave bodies lying in the streets (my prediction).


----------



## TopCat (Mar 1, 2020)

Coronavirus: US confirms first death, in Washington state
					

President Donald Trump says more cases are "likely" but urges people not to panic.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## TopCat (Mar 1, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> There are people I give more of a shit about tbh. Everyone else, for example.


Dont forget the musicians. They have to be front, left and centre when formatting a response.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 1, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Dont forget the musicians. They have to be front, left and centre when formatting a response.



I actually do care about musicians because I am one and because I like music. But people at a car show? Nah. We can live without car shows.


----------



## maomao (Mar 1, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> I actually do care about musicians because I am one and because I like music. But people at a car show? Nah. We can live without car shows.


And the caterers for the car show? And the taxi drivers ferrying people to and from the airport? And the hotels? I'm not a car show fan either but a lot of people depend on events generally for a living and a high proportion of them are so-called 'self employed' (ie. no work no pay).


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 1, 2020)

Why isnt the WHO telling the world clearly what they need to do to stop spread?
Can they not advise about closing schools and stopping large gatherings? Why cant someone make a fucking decision and just say to world...stay indoors for the next x days...and nobody flies/ sails/ rails/ drives / walks in or out of the country for the next 60 days. Let the fucker burn itself out. 

Sorry. ..I know thats a shit post. Just pissed off in general at attitudes.  Even at work where i am. The laisse faire smugness ...",ah sure we'll be grand...got through the foot and mouth and the swine flu thing".
🙄😡


----------



## TopCat (Mar 1, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> I actually do care about musicians because I am one and because I like music. But people at a car show? Nah. We can live without car shows.


There is likey to be a band at the car show. Essential income for musicians the convention and conferences sector.


----------



## prunus (Mar 1, 2020)

Lupa said:


> What does "Presence of Primary Composite End Point" mean?
> 
> Is 'yes'  dead and 'no', not dead?



Yes means entered ICU, put on ventilator or died (it says it in the footnotes of the table).


----------



## elbows (Mar 1, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Why isnt the WHO telling the world clearly what they need to do to stop spread?
> Can they not advise about closing schools and stopping large gatherings? Why cant someone make a fucking decision and just say to world...stay indoors for the next x days...and nobody flies/ sails/ rails/ drives / walks in or out of the country for the next 60 days. Let the fucker burn itself out.
> 
> Sorry. ..I know thats a shit post. Just pissed off in general at attitudes.  Even at work where i am. The laisse faire smugness ...",ah sure we'll be grand...got through the foot and mouth and the swine flu thing".
> 🙄😡



The laisse faire smugness has become entrenched over decades. You will probably get to witness it falling away in the coming week.

WHO has the same global governance/decision making issues as any other global body, we dont expect the UN to take the lead and get everything right and successfully order countries around, and the WHO is no different. They do publish a range of technical advice for countries to follow, most of which the public wont have read because they are not the intended audience. And the WHO does suffer from some other conflicts of interest just like individual nations will - eg their 'business as usual' instincts, which I spoke of a while back in the context of WHO not recommending travel restrictions, border closures etc. But they have been sending mixed messages on this because their recent China mission was full of praise for how the dramatic steps taken by China made such a huge difference. Maybe more on that from me later if I get round to reading the WHO China mission final report today.


----------



## kalidarkone (Mar 1, 2020)

I've been on Annual leave for the last 10 days and work at a hospital -due back in on Tuesday.  I had a look at the trust website just to see is there anything I need to be aware of going back to work seeing as Covid-19 stuff has moved on a lot since I was last in work.....Anyway I was shocked to see that the trust information to the public has not been updated since the *11th of February *    So it's still only just about people coming from China and the surrounding area.
Yeah we're not prepared. Couldn't organise a piss up in a brewery.


----------



## elbows (Mar 1, 2020)

Genetic analysis of a new Washington State sample from a case that was just discovered, suggests, to the following expert at least, a strong link to the first US case that was detected in the same area in January. Click the tweet to read the full thread.



And it sounds like that first case in January was only detected because of very timely vigilance and research on the part of the infected person...









						Coronavirus Case Confirmed in Washington State
					

Health officials closely monitoring the situation.



					www.infectioncontroltoday.com
				






> CDC and Washington state officials said in a telebriefing that the patient is a male US resident who arrived at Seattle-Tacoma airport on January 15, 2020. The patient did not have a fever at the time of arrival, and the flight was not a direct flight from Wuhan.
> 
> Additionally, the patient did not go to implicated animal markets in Wuhan, nor did he report close contact with an ill individual.
> 
> The patient had apparently researched the virus online, and upon developing symptoms reached out to his health care provider on January 19th. 2019-nCoV was confirmed on the 20th using samples shipped overnight. Public health officials from Washington indicated that the patient was hospitalized out of precaution but in overall good condition.


----------



## elbows (Mar 1, 2020)




----------



## Fez909 (Mar 1, 2020)

elbows said:


>



Here we go then...


----------



## kalidarkone (Mar 1, 2020)

I'm really not looking forward to going back to work on Tuesday.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 1, 2020)

From the Guardian, the person who was diagnosed after travelling to China via HK had been working in Bristol



> The man who tested positive for coronavirus in Shenzhen after flying from London last Thursday had been working in Bristol, the Chinese authorities have confirmed.
> 
> A statement from the Guangdong Health Commission late on Sunday said authorities in Shenzhen had reported an “imported case” of the coronavirus infection, in a 35 year old male from Shenzhen who had been working in Bristol.
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Mar 1, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Here we go then...



Yeah, confirmed cases obviously dont tell the whole story, but here are numbers for a handful of countries I picked, to give a sense of what trends we might expect in terms of confirmed cases. Numbers below are a week ago, 23rd Feb, compared to today.

South Korea 763 -> 3736
Italy 153 -> 1128
Germany 16 -> 117
France 11 -> 100


----------



## maomao (Mar 1, 2020)

elbows said:


> Yeah, confirmed cases obviously dont tell the whole story, but here are numbers for a handful of countries I picked, to give a sense of what trends we might expect in terms of confirmed cases. Numbers below are a week ago, 23rd Feb, compared to today.
> 
> South Korea 763 -> 3736
> Italy 153 -> 1128
> ...


So expect another zero on the end of all those this time next week. If testing can keep up.


----------



## bimble (Mar 1, 2020)

2 confirmed cases in Hertfordshire now. My local Waitrose is probably full of people politely stocking up on organic tinned soup right now.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 1, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Here we go then...


We'll all be dead by next weekend.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 1, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> We'll all be dead by next weekend.




More food for the seagulls 😁


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 1, 2020)

Lupa said:


> More food for the seagulls 😁


I was in Bury last week.  









						Bury residents told risk to public is low after coronavirus case confirmed
					

The patient is thought to have contracted the COVID-19 virus whilst in Italy




					www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk


----------



## weltweit (Mar 1, 2020)

Well it is getting closer to home, I wonder if I had a mind to what is that I would stock up on?


----------



## Wilf (Mar 1, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> I was in Bury last week.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I was there last weekend and this coming weekend - and my Mum's care home is in Bury. Tripe sales will plummet.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 1, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well it is getting closer to home, I wonder if I had a mind to what is that I would stock up on?



I've been building a Brexit stock for months. Mainly rice, pasta, tinned fruit, tinned beans of all descriptions, powdered milk, water, tea, coffee, sugar, butter. And custard cream biscuits. Medical grade gloves, FFP3 mask, goggles, detergent, disinfectants. 
I think I've enough to live without leaving the house for 6 months at least. 
My parents thought I was nuts. Maybe I am. 

I'll probably get the feckin virus now after all that. 

🙄😳


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 1, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well it is getting closer to home, I wonder if I had a mind to what is that I would stock up on?


Long lasting food in case supply lines are affected.
Easy to prepare food in case you're sick and can't be arsed cooking.
Paracetamol/flu meds.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 1, 2020)

Lupa said:


> I've been building a Brexit stock for months. Mainly rice, pasta, tinned fruit, tinned beans of all descriptions, powdered milk, water, tea, coffee, sugar, butter. And custard cream biscuits. Medical grade gloves, FFP3 mask, goggles, detergent, disinfectants.
> I think I've enough to live without leaving the house for 6 months at least.
> My parents thought I was nuts. Maybe I am.
> 
> ...



I always assume if you prepare thoroughly for something it won't happen while if you don't prepare then it will


----------



## weltweit (Mar 1, 2020)

Lupa said:


> ..
> I think I've enough to live without leaving the house for 6 months at least.
> My parents thought I was nuts. Maybe I am.
> ..


Great so it's all round to your house then!


----------



## elbows (Mar 1, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I always assume if you prepare thoroughly for something it won't happen while if you don't prepare then it will



I've probably got some N95 masks somewhere from bird flu in 2005!


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 1, 2020)

Wilf said:


> Tripe sales will plummet.


Definitely a postive outcome.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 1, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Great so it's all round to your house then!


Number one rule of prepping is don't tell people. If shit goes south, then you're defo getting a visit from the hungry people in the neighbourhood!

"Come out, Neville!"


----------



## two sheds (Mar 1, 2020)

elbows said:


> I've probably got some N95 masks somewhere from bird flu in 2005!



See - proof positive


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 1, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well it is getting closer to home, I wonder if I had a mind to what is that I would stock up on?


Loads of tinned stuff and dried stuff like pasta/rice/etc.  Oils and frozen veg, jars of peppers and the like.  Tinned fish.  

That's what I've done - got a massive pile of tinned stuff on the kitchen floor as there's no room to store them in the cupboards.  Just did a rough count - 90 tins of stuff sat on the floor.

I've got loads of dried stuff - pasta, rice, buckwheat, couscous, etc.  Plenty of oils like olive, toasted sesame, rapeseed too keep me going, along with butter in the fridge. 

I've steadily built it up over the last few months - helped by a bulk delivery of 40 tins of chopped tomatoes.  You can never have too many tomatoes.  

I could probably survive for months in isolation before running out of food.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 1, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I always assume if you prepare thoroughly for something it won't happen while if you don't prepare then it will




I never assume anything anymore... 😟


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 1, 2020)

Don't laugh at me cupid_stunt   You'll regret it when you're fighting the seagulls for the last chip on the seafront.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 1, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Great so it's all round to your house then!




It is my house. 
My walls are made from cans of beans. 😁


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 1, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> Don't laugh at me cupid_stunt   You'll regret it when you're fighting the seagulls for the last chip on the seafront.



Yes. He laughed at me too.
😡

The seagull will have you yet...mwaha ha ha ha...


😁


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 1, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> Loads of tinned stuff and dried stuff like pasta/rice/etc.  Oils and frozen veg, jars of peppers and the like.  Tinned fish.
> 
> That's what I've done - got a massive pile of tinned stuff on the kitchen floor as there's no room to store them in the cupboards.  Just did a rough count - 90 tins of stuff sat on the floor.
> 
> ...



You wanna put them on a pallet or something. Won't do them any good being in the floor long term.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 1, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> You wanna put them on a pallet or something. Won't do them any good being in the floor long term.


Too late, he's using the pallets for trap doors gun turrets.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 1, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Yes. He laughed at me too.
> 😡



I laugh at anyone that stockpiled due to brexit, because there would never have been any major food shortages, even if it had been 'no deal', it was just 'project fear' nonsense.

And, I am laughing at farmerbarleymow for having 90 tins of food on his floor, because he's run out of cupboard space, madness I would expect of a seagull lover.


----------



## Numbers (Mar 1, 2020)

We haven’t bought anything extra to the norm but having a look we’d probably survive a cpl of months with the food we have.


----------



## elbows (Mar 1, 2020)

More from the poo angle.


----------



## Poot (Mar 1, 2020)

It's a good job that the country isn't full of people on zero hours contracts who can't afford not to work, isn't it. And a really good job that those people aren't in roles where they meet lots of other people all the time while they're pretending to be absolutely fine because they can't afford not to.


----------



## bimble (Mar 1, 2020)

Um. People (scientists) now saying that it has probably been spreading for at least 6 weeks in Washington (as example) and all the while this misplaced focus on just people who have been to China .  This is going to be a long thing isn’t it.


----------



## wayward bob (Mar 1, 2020)

we have no space to stockpile. i plan to go with the looting option.

/urban privilege


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (Mar 1, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> I could probably survive for months in isolation before running out of food.



Next item up: what happens if you are without gas/electricity for an extended period?


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 1, 2020)

elbows said:


> I've probably got some N95 masks somewhere from bird flu in 2005!



Trump is giving daily press briefings and has remarked that they have 43 million 3M masks in storage with another 35 million per month (per month!) on order - just in case!

They are also in talks with other mask manufacturers for further supplies.

I wonder if our govt is also stockpiling masks?


----------



## spring-peeper (Mar 1, 2020)

TheHoodedClaw said:


> Next item up: what happens if you are without gas/electricity for an extended period?



I'd make sure that I had a manual can opener.

During the Ice Storm of 1998, we were without electricity for weeks.  People did have tinned products and an electric can opener had a hard time getting the cans open.


----------



## elbows (Mar 1, 2020)

bimble said:


> Um. People (scientists) now saying that it has probably been spreading for at least 6 weeks in Washington (as example) and all the while this misplaced focus on just people who have been to China .  This is going to be a long thing isn’t it.




Sadly yes, and this sort of thing will have been the default assumption of those same scientists etc all along. Its one of the reasons I posted so much on this thread, and why I expect to post less as we move into this new phase of awareness. All the same, I like many other people were somewhat constrained by not wanting to get too far ahead of ourselves, even though we knew the picture being shown by latest detected cases was nothing like the full picture, and was lagging woefully behind in terms of the when as well as the how many and the where. It was always likely to be this way, unless some early thing we thought we knew about the spreadability of this virus somehow turned out to be wrong.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 1, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> ..
> I wonder if our govt is also stockpiling masks?


I am yet to see anyone wearing one in the UK yet.
I do live in the sticks though.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 1, 2020)

elbows said:


> More from the poo angle.




This was announced in a press release a while ago refering to analysis in Heilongjiang laboratories and they also said people should boil water if their was doubt about water supply, disinfect their toilet twice a day if it was shared with others and should wash their hands after the toilet.

Today has death of Jiang Xueqing, aged 55, another doctor from the same hospital as whistleblower Li Wenliang,  plus announced 32-year old doctor Zhong Jinxing who died Friday from a heart attack due to overwork In Guangxi (not particularly heavily affected according to the numbers) tested negative for virus on sudden death.

There's been some imported infections, one Iranian made it to western China, 2 new infected in Beijing were both Chinese people returning from Iran, South Korean in Chengdu infected and the latest Briton who flew to Hong Kong and then went to Shenzhen.

Unfortunately for us here, just about every voice in Weibo seems to be attacking Europe's response to the virus, far too slow, not testing people, not shutting stuff down, no social distancing.

Also a lung transplant was performed for a critical virus patient in Wuxi, prosperous Jiangsu province.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 1, 2020)

Some of the cases today are related to the case in Surrey on Friday and 2 associated cases are in West Sussex 









						Joint statement on coronavirus cases in Surrey and West Sussex
					

This afternoon the Chief Medical Officer for England announced three further patients who were “close contacts of a known case”, had tested positive for COVID-19. These relate to a man …




					news.surreycc.gov.uk


----------



## fishfinger (Mar 1, 2020)

> Surgeon General Jerome Adams is warning Americans to stop buying medical masks, saying they aren't effective in preventing the general public from catching coronavirus and are needed for medical professionals.
> 
> “Seriously people- STOP BUYING MASKS!” Adams tweeted Saturday.
> 
> “They are NOT effective in preventing general public from catching #Coronavirus, but if healthcare providers can’t get them to care for sick patients, it puts them and our communities at risk!” he added.



Surgeon general: Stop buying masks


----------



## smmudge (Mar 1, 2020)

Numbers said:


> We haven’t bought anything extra to the norm but having a look we’d probably survive a cpl of months with the food we have.



Us too except it would be a couple of months of my wife saying every time we made dinner "hmmm I don't know if I fancy it...."


----------



## weltweit (Mar 1, 2020)

Hmm, I probably have 4 tins of chopped tomatoes, a couple of mini baked beans for baked potatoes, needless to say no masks, I do have plenty of soap for hand washing, isn't it amazing how cheap Imperial Leather bars are these days? - Anyhow not enough to last more than a week, assuming the electric stays up. 

Perhaps I will buy some tins next time I am shopping


----------



## weltweit (Mar 1, 2020)

I wonder if testing can establish if someone has had the virus and recovered from it. 

When testing wider populations, which may become necessary in the UK in due course, they could then have three statuses which they could establish: hasn't got it, has got it, had it.


----------



## campanula (Mar 1, 2020)

wayward bob said:


> we have no space to stockpile. i plan to go with the looting option.


Yep - no space, no cash. Looting  likely and can always eat my seed potatoes. My eldest has never outgrown his student days: he has a large supply of 'apocalypse food'...including half a hundredweight of muesli.


----------



## prunus (Mar 1, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I wonder if testing can establish if someone has had the virus and recovered from it.
> 
> When testing wider populations, which may become necessary in the UK in due course, they could then have three statuses which they could establish: hasn't got it, has got it, had it.



Serology tests - testing for the presence of virus-specific antibodies - can do this; I think Singapore announced a few days ago that they had developed one, and certainly labs around the world are working on it, but I don’t think they’re in general use yet.  I’m sure they will become part of the arsenal - in particular they can (potentially) give a picture of the scale of sub-clinical infections, which could be very important in assessing mortality.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 1, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Heard today that a few schools nearby had trips away to northern Italy over the midterm.
> All back and went straight to school. 🙄
> 
> But the same situation happened up north and the pupils were told to stay at home for 14 days.
> ...




And now the first case of coronavirus in the republic  has shown up. A secondary school male pupil who was in Italy on a school trip over mid term. The school has been instructed to close for the next two weeks.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 1, 2020)

Italy's rich northern Lombardi has hospitals close to collapse:









						Coronavirus, in Lombardia ospedali vicini al collasso | L'Oms: "Serve una struttura ad hoc" - Tgcom24
					

Nell'emergenza sanitaria in corso, nella regione scarseggiano posti soprattutto in terapia intensiva, mentre si cerca personale sanitario da subito disponibile. A Milano individuata una soluzione




					www.tgcom24.mediaset.it
				




Spanish writer went to Portugal returned to Spain 23 February now confirmed. Suggesting significant spread in Portugal.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 1, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> And, I am laughing at @farmerbarleymow for having 90 tins of food on his floor, because he's run out of cupboard space, madness I would expect of a seagull lover.


There are other reasons why I've stocked up - it's not just this thread.


----------



## elbows (Mar 1, 2020)

elbows said:


> Yeah, confirmed cases obviously dont tell the whole story, but here are numbers for a handful of countries I picked, to give a sense of what trends we might expect in terms of confirmed cases. Numbers below are a week ago, 23rd Feb, compared to today.
> 
> South Korea 763 -> 3736
> Italy 153 -> 1128
> ...



Oh I think the Italy numbers I used were out of date, I think I just saw something about 1577 cases, but then something else saying this total didnt include people who had recovered or died, just current infections. Total so far should be more like 1694.

Sorry for the lack of link, I dont have really good website sources for Italy and I scribbled those updated numbers down without paying attention to where I found them.

edit - the 1694 number is all over twitter so I probably found it there, but dont have brain energy to find an example tweet from a source I highly rate right now.


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (Mar 1, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> There are other reasons why I've stocked up - it's not just this thread.



It was the Beast from the East a couple of years ago that made me think it was probably a good idea to have a stash of food and stuff on hand. I seem to have quite a lot of things like this, although I've not seen this specific example of fine dining in the wild for years:



That stash doesn't get raided by the drunk me, never, oh that just doesn't happen


----------



## sihhi (Mar 1, 2020)

20 MPs in Iran have coronavirus.

Italian coach driver on a route into France apparently infected, possibly infected many more goodness knows.









						Coronavirus: un chauffeur de bus pris en charge à Lyon-Perrache, un test de dépistage en cours
					

Le chauffeur d'un car Flixbus en provenance d'Italie confiné dimanche après-midi à Lyon a subi des tests en raison d'une suspicion de coronavirus.




					www.bfmtv.com


----------



## sihhi (Mar 1, 2020)

South Korea has 10,000 tests a day (10 times the testing capacity of Britain) according to journalist's tweet


Also 2 of the deaths in South Korea were 2 patients under self-quarantine at home.

The otherwise healthy 35-year old who died in Thailand apparently was testing negative for the virus but then went worse and his organs failed.

_The Disease Control Department said on Sunday that the patient had tested negative for the virus since Feb 16, but later suffered from failure of his lungs, heart and other organs, leading to his death._


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 2, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Spanish writer went to Portugal returned to Spain 23 February now confirmed. Suggesting significant spread in Portugal.


Portugal is one that has been bothering me. For some reason, it feels like one of those countries most likely to be overwhelmed. Yet they're not had a single case officially declared yet.

That's worrying. Either they're not testing, they're lying, or their tests are shit. I don't believe they're one of the only countries in Europe to escape this.

Also, Turkey's zero cases is obviously bullshit.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 2, 2020)

Can anyone confirm if this is genuine?


----------



## little_legs (Mar 2, 2020)

A massive thank you to sihhi and elbows for their posts.

The problem with the mosques and healing houses in Iran (apologies I don't know the correct name) is genuine.

Go watch Dr John Campbell's youtube videos on covid-19, he started looking into it near the end of January and has had daily updates on it from a UK perspective.

He started out optimistic, saying things are interesting, surprising or concerning. He had hoped the fucking thing just stuck to poorer healthcare countries. Then the data rolled in and peer-reviewed journals highlighted how serious this is. The case studies he goes through are interesting as it doesn't fit the pattern of what you'd think of with getting the flu.

Dr. John Campbell

Flu of any kind is a bitch. In 2002, I was living in Uzbekistan, the authorities there did not report the spread of bird flu and when they did they told the population to keep calm and carry on. One day after work I felt suddenly super weak, I could not stand, keep my eyes open and my entire body felt like it was breaking and burning. I just crashed in my bed and told my mates that I wasn't feeling well. I don't remember anything except that a couple of times there was a nurse in the flat administering IV and I remember a couple of times my friends brought food and tried to convince me to eat. I came back to being fully aware that I was just laying there in 15 days' time and I was so weak that I couldn't even walk or sit up for more than 10 minutes for another good week. I don't remember anything what happened during that 15 day period except for the IV and food things. It was horrible.


----------



## Detroit City (Mar 2, 2020)

2nd US corona virus patient has passed away in NY


----------



## ice-is-forming (Mar 2, 2020)

ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com


----------



## Kaka Tim (Mar 2, 2020)

How is the usa's dismal public health system going to cope with this? Especially with their current fucknut in chief?


----------



## Graymalkin (Mar 2, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> How is the usa's dismal public health system going to cope with this? Especially with their current fucknut in chief?


It doesn't bode well does it?  Canada has universal healthcare but a lack of paid sick days (only 3 per year in Ontario) are still a big restriction on folks' ability to self-isolate.  I live in a town on the St. Lawrence river with lots of cross border tourist traffic.  If it spreads in the U.S. first it'll be interesting to see when border restrictions begin.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am yet to see anyone wearing one in the UK yet.
> I do live in the sticks though.



I took a train to Stockholm at the weekend, passing through the central railway station, subway system and then a 16,000 seat concert venue. Not a single mask wearer seen by me, either. But of course people feel complacent because they see the numbers reported in the media and think it’s a live read on the situation. At the weekend I think it was still 12 cases being reported in Sweden. If they could see the media reports in three weeks time, when infections happening today will be apparent, then I bet there would have been more masks in use.



Kaka Tim said:


> How is the usa's dismal public health system going to cope with this? Especially with their current fucknut in chief?



A lot of money will be made from desperate people and a lot of desperately poor people will die from lack of care. Just another day in the American dream.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 2, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Portugal is one that has been bothering me. For some reason, it feels like one of those countries most likely to be overwhelmed. Yet they're not had a single case officially declared yet.
> 
> That's worrying. Either they're not testing, they're lying, or their tests are shit. I don't believe they're one of the only countries in Europe to escape this.
> 
> Also, Turkey's zero cases is obviously bullshit.



From RTP last night  :
*19h55 - Fifteen new suspected cases in the last 24 hours* *
*
 The Directorate-General for Health announced the existence of 15 new suspected cases of Covid-19 in the past hours.  Analyzes revealed that three of these cases are negative.  The remaining 12 are still waiting for the results.

 Of the 85 suspected cases in Portugal, 73 gave negative results.  The data appear in the daily epidemiological bulletin of Covid-19.

  For DGS, “taking into account the global epidemiological situation, it is necessary to consider the possibility of importing cases of illness from citizens from China or from other areas with active community transmission”.

*The public health risk in Portugal is considered moderate to high.*


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 2, 2020)

TheHoodedClaw said:


> Next item up: what happens if you are without gas/electricity for an extended period?


I'm sure I could manage - could eat the tinned stuff cold, or buy a camping stove to warm things up.  Most tins have the pull thing on the top, but I've got a normal manual tin opener for the old style tins.


----------



## Kuke (Mar 2, 2020)

Starting to think we should probs stock up on some tins... been after an excuse to get my partner to eat a fray bentos pie for a while. Mention of them above made a lot more enthusiastic for a bit of stockpiling. We're on a boat in kings cross atm. Got plenty of diesel, gas and water atm and are walking distance to an elsan point so fine on those fronts.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 2, 2020)

Detroit City said:


> 2nd US corona virus patient has passed away in NY


Have they left the body in the gutter?


----------



## TopCat (Mar 2, 2020)

I got plenty butane for my camping stove. stove. Will get a big shop in if people in London start getting it. Then I will be staying in.


----------



## bimble (Mar 2, 2020)

Got enough chocolate , cat food and roasted peanuts now to survive anything the world might throw at me.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 2, 2020)

bimble said:


> Got enough chocolate , cat food and roasted peanuts now to survive anything the world might throw at me.



No India then?


----------



## bimble (Mar 2, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> No India then?


 Went and am back already, much too soon.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 2, 2020)

bimble said:


> Went and am back already, much too soon.



That was quick!


----------



## strung out (Mar 2, 2020)

bimble said:


> Got enough chocolate , cat food and roasted peanuts now to survive anything the world might throw at me.


How long before you start on the cat food?


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 2, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> From RTP last night  :
> *19h55 - Fifteen new suspected cases in the last 24 hours*
> 
> The Directorate-General for Health announced the existence of 15 new suspected cases of Covid-19 in the past hours.  Analyzes revealed that three of these cases are negative.  The remaining 12 are still waiting for the results.
> ...


Portugal just confirmed its first cases. In Porto. One visited Italy, one visited Spain.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 2, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Portugal is one that has been bothering me. For some reason, it feels like one of those countries most likely to be overwhelmed. Yet they're not had a single case officially declared yet.
> 
> That's worrying. Either they're not testing, they're lying, or their tests are shit. I don't believe they're one of the only countries in Europe to escape this.
> 
> Also, Turkey's zero cases is obviously bullshit.



Egypt has exported a bunch of cases too, suggesting a much larger outbreak there than has been acknowledged so far.


----------



## Chilli.s (Mar 2, 2020)

TopCat said:


> The first US death reported. Someone who had no obvious transmission path.
> 
> I think it will be an interesting juxtaposition between the Chinese and US responses to the outbreak.
> 
> ...


This fascinates me too. capitalists bleat on about how the system benefits society as a whole, well we may see something that blows that opinion away.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well it is getting closer to home, I wonder if I had a mind to what is that I would stock up on?


Is it a modest store of basic foods, to sustain you whilst you self exclude for two weeks? 
Or piles of luxury foods from Fortnum and Mason?


----------



## TopCat (Mar 2, 2020)

Life imitates art. UK Medical Director Professor Paul Cosford when pressed on Breakfast TV this morning went I think off script and said transmission was "highly likely". 
Has he really fucked up due to little media experience or is this an official admission that its here and we cant stop it..
?


----------



## maomao (Mar 2, 2020)

Chilli.s said:


> This fascinates me too. capitalists bleat on about how the system benefits society as a whole, well we may see something that blows that opinion away.


Well the rhetorical trick has always been that it's the states fault when people starve to death in communist countries but it's the stupid fuckers' own faults when it happens in capitalist countries. Let's see how well that explanation holds up in a situation which requires cooperation across the whole of society. I think the cracks are going to show.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 2, 2020)

Yes but it will be the Democrats' and specifically Obama's fault though.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 2, 2020)

The virus started in a communist country. If they were capitalist it wouldn't have happened, etc..


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well it is getting closer to home, I wonder if I had a mind to what is that I would stock up on?


tea


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 2, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> I'd make sure that I had a manual can opener.
> 
> During the Ice Storm of 1998, we were without electricity for weeks.  People did have tinned products and an electric can opener had a hard time getting the cans open.


in addition to the usual kitchen manual opener, there's one on swiss army knife, on leatherman and gerber multitools. i think i'll be ok on that front


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I wonder if testing can establish if someone has had the virus and recovered from it.
> 
> When testing wider populations, which may become necessary in the UK in due course, they could then have three statuses which they could establish: hasn't got it, has got it, had it.


has it again...


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 2, 2020)

Chilli.s said:


> This fascinates me too. capitalists bleat on about how the system benefits society as a whole, well we may see something that blows that opinion away.



Modern China must be one of the least Communist countries in the world by this point - it's still finding innovative new ways to control its citizens though.



> As China encourages people to return to work despite the coronavirus outbreak, it has begun a bold mass experiment in using data to regulate citizens’ lives — by requiring them to use software on their smartphones that dictates whether they should be quarantined or allowed into subways, malls and other public spaces ... It also appears to share information with the police, setting a template for new forms of automated social control that could persist long after the epidemic subsides.











						In Coronavirus Fight, China Gives Citizens a Color Code, With Red Flags (Published 2020)
					

A new system uses software to dictate quarantines — and appears to send personal data to police, in a troubling precedent for automated social control.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Life imitates art. UK Medical Director Professor Paul Cosford when pressed on Breakfast TV this morning went I think off script and said transmission was "highly likely".
> Has he really fucked up due to little media experience or is this an official admission that its here and we cant stop it..
> ?



I didnt see it but that does not seem much of a leap in terms of the official line - they are into a different phase of communication now, preparing people for the likely reality of the coming weeks, and the draconian measures that may be taken.


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

Oops I'm not sure as I worded that as clearly as I intended.

What I meant was is that the tone of official communications already began to change (since approx last Friday) so Cosfords comments did not surprise me. Maybe the odd word was stronger than the official line right now, but not by much.

eg compare and contrast it to what Johnson said today:



> The Prime Minister said: "We have also agreed a plan so that if and when it starts to spread, as I'm afraid it looks likely it will, we are in a position to take the steps necessary to... contain the spread of the disease as far as we can, and to protect the most vulnerable.
> 
> "We will be announcing that plan not just tomorrow but in the days and weeks ahead as the thing develops."











						Coronavirus cases in UK could rise 'significantly', says PM
					

Boris Johnson says expansion of the virus is "on the cards" in the UK, as the number of cases rises to 39.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Cid (Mar 2, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


>




Indonesia can be added to the list now, with a high likelihood of under reporting. I’d also be astonished if it’s true that none of the central Asian countries or Mongolia have cases (none reported). And Russia still being at 2 cases from 30 days ago raises an eyebrow.

e2a: just to clarify those figures aren’t off that post but off WHO daily situation reports.


----------



## rookwood (Mar 2, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> I'm sure I could manage - could eat the tinned stuff cold, or buy a camping stove to warm things up.  Most tins have the pull thing on the top, but I've got a normal manual tin opener for the old style tins.



As a classic Red Dwarf episode showed, you can eat beans and other tins cold. The smells will be incredible after a few days, but there we are.



strung out said:


> How long before you start on the cat food?



Without a word of a lie, did a cat food stir fry when smashed in about 1998. Lesson: go for KiteKat chunks in jelly, not Whiskas with gravy.

Don’t thank me.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 2, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> There are other reasons why I've stocked up - it's not just this thread.



You're not the only one.  I keep a good supply in my house.  I do it because that's how we lived when I was growing up.  We were only marginally on the grid and it didn't take much for the power to go out in the middle of winter for a week or more at a time.  You dealt with it by being ready when it (inevitably) happened.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 2, 2020)

We've still got some of the Christmas gin left, but not many other essentials.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 2, 2020)

Wilf said:


> We've still got some of the Christmas gin left, but not many other essentials.



Some people would say that gin is* the* essential thing for surviving a crisis.


----------



## Numbers (Mar 2, 2020)

If/when it comes to it I shall be opening up Numbers Apocalyptic Rum Shack.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 2, 2020)

Chilli.s said:


> This fascinates me too. capitalists bleat on about how the system benefits society as a whole, well we may see something that blows that opinion away.



I think we're already seeing that.  I saw a report (on Fox News of all things) recently about a company called Cabelas in western Nebraska.  It was a healthy company until a hedge fund took it over.  By the time it was done, 4,000 small town workers lost their jobs and all but destroyed the town.  Even Fox News was wondering if this is really a good thing:









						The death of Sidney, Nebraska: How a hedge fund destroyed 'a good American town'
					

“I hope Paul Singer is proud of what he did."




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

Oh no at the number of Italy deaths.



> The total number of cases in Italy has risen to more than 2,000, and the death toll has risen from 18 to 52, officials say.
> 
> Italy has the highest number of cases outside China. Today's figure is up from 1,694 confirmed cases yesterday.



From the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-51701043


----------



## Cid (Mar 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> Oh no at the number of Italy deaths.
> 
> 
> 
> From the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-51701043



Fuck. In a way you kind of hope there are a lot of unconfirmed case, because 52 of 2000 would put death rate at 2.6%+.


----------



## bimble (Mar 2, 2020)

30 positive in switzerland as of now.


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

Cid said:


> Fuck. In a way you kind of hope there are a lot of unconfirmed case, because 52 of 2000 would put death rate at 2.6%+.



Thats been the only significant hope I've had all the way along really, that low estimates for mild cases are way off the actual reality. Probably wont really get a sense of this till we see how big the pandemic waves are. Or, of course, if these waves somehow dont emerge quite as expected. Even then, mitigation attempts might get the credit for that, even if there is another factor that isnt understood properly. In which case only longer term serology tests will give us a real sense of how many were infected, and even these might be misleading depending on the timing and how long antibodies and immunity actually lasts.


----------



## Cid (Mar 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> Thats been the only significant hope I've had all the way along really, that low estimates for mild cases are way off the actual reality. Probably wont really get a sense of this till we see how big the pandemic waves are. Or, of course, if these waves somehow dont emerge quite as expected.



Yeah, to early to tell us much really I suppose. Especially looking at the wide variation between countries.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> Thats been the only significant hope I've had all the way along really, that low estimates for mild cases are way off the actual reality. Probably wont really get a sense of this till we see how big the pandemic waves are. Or, of course, if these waves somehow dont emerge quite as expected. Even then, mitigation attempts might get the credit for that, even if there is another factor that isnt understood properly. In which case only longer term serology tests will give us a real sense of how many were infected, and even these might be misleading depending on the timing and how long antibodies and immunity actually lasts.


You said Pandemic. Oh my. 
This is mental serious.


----------



## bimble (Mar 2, 2020)

Government to take draconian powers to limit virus spread, writes Robert Peston | ITV News
					

Downing Street has said temporary emergency powers to delay spread of virus will not become law till end of this month. | ITV National News




					www.itv.com
				



how does this make sense even on its own terms?
I mean if containment is to be attempted by decree shouldn't it be done now not once the thing's already on 'an epidemic scale'?


----------



## sihhi (Mar 2, 2020)

Cid said:


> Fuck. In a way you kind of hope there are a lot of unconfirmed case, because 52 of 2000 would put death rate at 2.6%+.



I suspect there are a lot of unconfirmed cases because beyond a thousand or so you have to test aout 20,000 a day and most lab systems cannot cope.

Also there must be a lot of infected people all over Italy because travellers to places like Georgia and Iceland have come from all sorts of places in Italy

The epidemiologists who studied Iran suggested that there must have been around 18,000 cases by the time the first spread from Iran was caught in Canada.

Likewise in Britain there's probably at least several hundred infected if someone infected from Britain ends up being diagnosed after flying to Hong Kong.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 2, 2020)

bimble said:


> Government to take draconian powers to limit virus spread, writes Robert Peston | ITV News
> 
> 
> Downing Street has said temporary emergency powers to delay spread of virus will not become law till end of this month. | ITV National News
> ...



The government has a well defined plan to close the stable door which will be announced in a timely manner once the horse has bolted.


----------



## bimble (Mar 2, 2020)

two sheds said:


> The government has a well defined plan to close the stable door which will be announced in a timely manner once the horse has bolted.


Thats exactly how it reads to me but am i missing something?
more of same here 








						'Several weeks' until coronavirus outbreak could close schools | ITV News
					

There are "several weeks" before coronavirus could cause school closures and the cancellation of events, the health secretary has said. | ITV National News




					www.itv.com


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 2, 2020)

TopCat said:


> The first US death reported. Someone who had no obvious transmission path.
> 
> I think it will be an interesting juxtaposition between the Chinese and US responses to the outbreak.
> 
> ...



Think the US has the least amount of infections/deaths per capita to any other country with an outbreak.


----------



## bimble (Mar 2, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Think the US has the least amount of infections/deaths per capita to any other country with an outbreak.


How many of the people who live there are getting tested Marty, compared to in for instance s korea? 
this says by yesterday in america only 3,600 people had been tested whilst s korea (6 times smaller population) has done about 100,000.


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> Oh no at the number of Italy deaths.
> 
> 
> 
> From the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-51701043



Ugh I think they fucked it up earlier, its increased by 18, not gone up from 18 (it was at 34 already, not 18).


----------



## sihhi (Mar 2, 2020)

I think the British government is taking it all too lightly.

On cases






						China’s Decision to Leave Asymptomatic Patients off Coronavirus Infection Tally Sparks Debate - Caixin Global
					

Not releasing figures for those who have tested positive for the disease but show no symptoms could hamper other countries’ efforts at disease control, experts argue



					www.caixinglobal.com
				




Apparently 10% of infections in Japan are asymptomatic.

_In one instance where data on asymptomatic infected individuals was revealed, a *study* published Feb. 12 in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology suggested that the group accounted for only 1.95% of all lab-confirmed infections. In contrast, this group made up *10.2% of total infections* in Japan’s figures as of Wednesday, or 19 of 186 infections, excluding those from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in the port of Yokohama._

China's stats now do not include them.

_However, multiple studies from both *Chinese* and* overseas researchers *have been published, suggesting that individuals infected with Covid-19 can be contagious even if they do not feel ill. _

So it's frightening but possible for someone to be perfectly normal, not sense they are infected come back from central Italy have no symptoms doesn't need to self-quarantine as a result and then goes out and about to infect tens of others.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 2, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Is it a modest store of basic foods, to sustain you whilst you self exclude for two weeks?
> Or piles of luxury foods from Fortnum and Mason?


two weeks sustainance for me, Fortnum and Mason haven't seen me in their store since I was a nipper


----------



## Supine (Mar 2, 2020)

Some maths on the US outbreak...






						More math of infectious diseases | Models Of Reality
					






					models.street-artists.org


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 2, 2020)

I keep calling it Corvid-19


----------



## weltweit (Mar 2, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> You're not the only one.  I keep a good supply in my house.  I do it because that's how we lived when I was growing up.  We were only marginally on the grid and it didn't take much for the power to go out in the middle of winter for a week or more at a time.  You dealt with by being ready when it (inevitably) happened.


I was chided something rotten because apart from my phone I didn't have any torches or candles. 
I hadn't expected to be without electric, but of course I was. 

Since then I have bought a head torch, and will be looking out for candles tomorrow night. 

And, I am not stocking up, well I am, I bought some more tins tonight on my way home. Only those with the easy open though, the last time I had an old fashioned one I managed to cut myself quite nastily when washing it up.


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

Lupa said:


> I keep calling it Corvid-19



I've done that once or twice. Its just another sign that its not a very good name, and it hasnt really caught on that well either. Unlike the virus itself


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 2, 2020)

sihhi said:


> So it's frightening but possible for someone to be perfectly normal, not sense they are infected come back from central Italy have no symptoms doesn't need to self-quarantine as a result and then goes out and about to infect tens of others.


Someone who is a friend of a friend is living exactly this scenario above.

Came back from Northern Italy last week and was told not to come to work. Full pay etc, so no hardship.

Has been carry on her life as if she's just on holiday for two weeks. Absolutely no self-isolation, which was the point of her going home.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 2, 2020)

Saying lots without saying anything at all


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> I've done that once or twice. Its just another sign that its not a very good name, and it hasnt really caught on that well either. Unlike the virus itself


They should have just called it SARS 2. It would have scared people into action sooner and thats what the virus is called anyway...


----------



## MrSki (Mar 2, 2020)

Lupa said:


> I keep calling it Corvid-19


I sure it won't be offended.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 2, 2020)

sihhi said:


> ..
> So it's frightening but possible for someone to be perfectly normal, not sense they are infected come back from central Italy have no symptoms doesn't need to self-quarantine as a result and then goes out and about to infect tens of others.


That is similar to the situation at the moment which is that someone can be incubating the virus, be infectious to those around them but have no symptoms. They may go on to have symptoms but they may not.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 2, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Someone who is a friend of a friend is living exactly this scenario above.
> 
> Came back from Northern Italy last week and was told not to come to work. Full pay etc, so no hardship.
> 
> Has been carry on her life as if she's just on holiday for two weeks. Absolutely no self-isolation, which was the point of her going home.




She's a cunt.
End of. 

That really makes me mad. 
😡

I overheard a 6 yr old immunocompromised kid telling another kid that he would be the first to die. He was matter of fact about it. "You'll be ok...you have a good immune system. I think I'll probably die."
Broke my heart hearing that.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 2, 2020)

Here's another bellweather

Santa Clara California has a husband and wife recently travelling to Egypt, both testing positive at the hospital.

A French guy also came back from Egypt and fell sick soon after.

Egypt appears to unconfirmed cases.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 2, 2020)

Wilf said:


> We've still got some of the Christmas gin left, but not many other essentials.


In March?  

Unless you bought crates and crates of gin that is remarkably restrained.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 2, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Saying lots without saying anything at all




Fucking idiot


----------



## sihhi (Mar 2, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Someone who is a friend of a friend is living exactly this scenario above.
> 
> Came back from Northern Italy last week and was told not to come to work. Full pay etc, so no hardship.
> 
> Has been carry on her life as if she's just on holiday for two weeks. Absolutely no self-isolation, which was the point of her going home.



Name and shame to neighbours and Public Health  as a first step.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 2, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> In March?
> 
> Unless you bought crates and crates of gin that is remarkably restrained.



Sloe gin lasts 3 days on average


----------



## smmudge (Mar 2, 2020)

The scariest thing is that the latest people in the UK to be confirmed infected are (apart from the few in the same family) from all over.. Hertfordshire, Scotland, Essex, West Yorkshire, London, Gloucester... I mean what's the chances that these people from all different places are just wandering around by themselves only ones infected??


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 2, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Name and shame to neighbours and Public Health  as a first step.



Sounds like it was her _workplace_ issuing that (sensible!) instruction - cos PHE advice in that situation would be that she's fine to carry on as normal, wouldn't it (no symptoms)?!

Don't mean she's not a dickhead but actually, I reckon LOADS of people would see that as a paid for extended holiday, when it doesn't break any current advice.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 2, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I am going to write an email to the Health Secretary & Public Health England urging stronger and proactive nonpharmaceutical interventions.
> 
> I urge a read of this article about differing responses to the previous world pandemic in 1918, very stats heavy



Here's a diagram from the article - go hard and go early is the answer for a new virus no host immunity






Peak is sharper where social distancing is not enacted, but 'the economy' is 'back to normal' quicker after more deaths.

This is influenza and not coronavirus which is perhaps more contagious or lethal as yet we don't know we should be on the side of precaution.

It is or was A Level biology.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> I dont think Japan wants its people to carry on with business as usual. Cancelling public events and closing schools are two large steps that do tend to ensure that no sense of normality persists.



I've been surprised at how few deaths there've been in Japan in total 7, not counting Diamond Princess.


----------



## bimble (Mar 2, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Here's a diagram from the article - go hard and go early is the answer for a new virus no host immunity
> 
> 
> 
> ...



What do you think the reason is for the government statements which seem to say they intend to not do anything much here for at least a month?


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I've been surprised at how few deaths there've been in Japan in total 7, not counting Diamond Princess.



Japan was always likely to be on the list of countries whose numbers I would take with an extra pinch of salt, and its certainly been that way so far.

But I'm talking about number of cases as much as deaths. I will wait and see how their numbers evolve.

After all, South Korea has managed to detect thousands of cases, but were on about 22 deaths last time I checked.

Given the lag between getting infected, getting sick, and dying, I must remember to allow additional time for death statistics vs confirmed case stats.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I was chided something rotten because apart from my phone I didn't have any torches or candles.
> I hadn't expected to be without electric, but of course I was.
> 
> Since then I have bought a head torch, and will be looking out for candles tomorrow night.
> ...



I tend to think that at least I won't be among the people making things more difficult by mobbing the stores.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> Japan was always likely to be on the list of coutries whose numbers I would take with an extra pinch of salt, and its certainly been that way so far.
> 
> But I'm talking about number of cases as much as deaths. I will wait and see how their numbers evolve.



My read of Japanese culture is that if told to stay home and self-isolate, they'll tend to comply.  Americans would be using the enforced time off to go shopping or some shit, and feel entitled to do so.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 2, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Saying lots without saying anything at all



Honey monster in a suit.


----------



## killer b (Mar 2, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> My read of Japanese culture is that if told to stay home and self-isolate, they'll tend to comply.  Americans would using the enforced time off to go shopping or some shit.


Mrs B teaches a Japanese family english (via skype) and has had an email from them this morning complaining about how shit it is, and that the kids are out playing 'cause there's nothing they can do to stop them.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 2, 2020)

bimble said:


> What do you think the reason is for the government statements which seem to say they intend to not do anything much here for at least a month?



My feeling is they see it as swine flu 2 not SARS 2. They _might_ come to their senses by which time it will be far too late.


----------



## prunus (Mar 2, 2020)

Can anyone point me at a source of the historical (day by day) number of cases in Hubei (or China generally) since the beginning of the year?   Thanks.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 2, 2020)

Received a text message from my GP surgery saying:



> If you have returned from these specific areas since 19th February you should call NHS111 and self-isolate even if you do not have symptoms:  IRAN, SPECIFIC LOCKDOWN AREAS IN NORTHERN ITALY, SPECIAL CARE ZONES IN SOUTH KOREA, HUBEI PROVINCE



Guess they're pumping this out more or less nationally, as it seems unlikely my GP surgery is being particularly proactive about this.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 2, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> Received a text message from my GP surgery saying:
> 
> 
> 
> Guess they're pumping this out more or less nationally, as it seems unlikely my GP surgery is being particularly proactive about this.



I've had 3 from my GP surgery in the last month. I also work in surgeries in another borough so daily updates and posters going up everywhere. Isolation rooms ready etc...


----------



## Supine (Mar 2, 2020)

Some useful about face masks - especially the dangers of using them...









						Covid-19: A definitive guide to buying and using face masks, by a viral immunologist - Hong Kong Free Press HKFP
					

Hong Kong is being re-traumatised in 2020 – by another crisis that, like SARS in 2003, is devastating society and financial markets. Similarly, a lack of knowledge and information on the coronavirus outbreak that originated in Wuhan, China have caused wild panic and chaos as well as a global...




					www.hongkongfp.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

sihhi said:


> My feeling is they see it as swine flu 2 not SARS 2. They _might_ come to their senses by which time it will be far too late.



No, the message and mood music is different, they know this isnt the same or similar.

It does certainly seem to be the case that they want to start with the traditional 'business as usual' approach, but expect to have to switch to something very different. 

The impression has certainly been put out there today that they'd like to have the business as usual phase last this whole month. I'm not sure if that is likely or not, I havent done the maths. I'd be tempted to say no, maybe 3 weeks if they are lucky, maybe much less than that, maybe I am miles off.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 2, 2020)

Where did this idea that the virus can be killed by heat, something like 27C come from? Someone was spouting this today. Surely human body temperature is something like 36C so the virus wouldn't be able to survive that. Was it some crap on facebook? Anyone come across it?


----------



## sihhi (Mar 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> No, the message and mood music is different, they know this isnt the same or similar.
> 
> It does certainly seem to be the case that they want to start with the traditional 'business as usual' approach, but expect to have to switch to something very different.
> 
> The impression has certainly been put out there today that they'd like to have the business as usual phase last this whole month. I'm not sure if that is likely or not, I havent done the maths. I'd be tempted to say no, maybe 3 weeks if they are lucky, maybe much less than that, maybe I am miles off.



Cases double every 7 days (without a mass screw up like hospital-based spread via nurses and doctors) was something a virologist noted.

Big gatherings in business as usual will exacerbate the problem.

Here's a good interview China’s cases of Covid-19 are finally declining. A WHO expert explains why.


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 2, 2020)

krtek a houby said:


> 38% of Americans won't buy Corona beer because of the virus
> 
> The spread of the coronavirus couldn't have come at a worse time for Corona beer
> 
> Don't blame them, tbh. It's bottled piss.



Not really the weather for corona yet.
Surely the lime is good for fighting off this Covid-lurghy thing?


----------



## spring-peeper (Mar 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Where did this idea that the virus can be killed by heat, something like 27C come from? Someone was spouting this today. Surely human body temperature is something like 36C so the virus wouldn't be able to survive that. Was it some crap on facebook? Anyone come across it?




Someone posted a facebook "helpful list" on the virus several pages ago.

The collective wisdom of U75 trashed it.

One of the first to be trashed was the temperature thing.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 2, 2020)

sihhi said:


> ..
> Here's a good interview China’s cases of Covid-19 are finally declining. A WHO expert explains why.


Good interview, thanks for posting it.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> two weeks sustainance for me, Fortnum and Mason haven't seen me in their store since I was a nipper


They do some amazing tinned stuff.


----------



## agricola (Mar 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Where did this idea that the virus can be killed by heat, something like 27C come from? Someone was spouting this today. Surely human body temperature is something like 36C so the virus wouldn't be able to survive that. Was it some crap on facebook? Anyone come across it?



Originally I have no idea, though Trump mentioned that the virus might just go away when it gets warmer in a press conference over the weekend.


----------



## agricola (Mar 2, 2020)

MadeInBedlam said:


> *Not really the weather for corona yet.*
> Surely the lime is good for fighting off this Covid-lurghy thing?



what vile heresy is this?


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 2, 2020)

agricola said:


> what vile heresy is this?



I want to pretend I’m on holiday. Somewhere warm.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 2, 2020)

US looks very safe then









						Bloomberg endorses Biden as Sanders launches fresh attacks on frontrunner
					

Follow the latest coverage, as it happened




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Jennastan (Mar 2, 2020)

me and the other half not feeling great tonight. Running a slight temperature and feeling a bit fluey. _gulp_


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 2, 2020)

TopCat said:


> They do some amazing tinned stuff.


Tinned swan?


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 2, 2020)

Jennastan said:


> me and the other half not feeling great tonight. Running a slight temperature and feeling a bit fluey. _gulp_



Have you travelled recently? Do either of you have a cough?


----------



## Jennastan (Mar 2, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Have you travelled recently? Do either of you have a cough?


i always have a cough - being an asthma sufferer. Haven't travelled but i do go in and out of central London, and a busy international office, quite a bit.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 2, 2020)

Jennastan said:


> i always have a cough - being an asthma sufferer. Haven't travelled but i do go in and out of central London, and a busy international office, quite a bit.



I hope you feel better soon.  Go home and rest up.  

I have a bit of a cough as well.  Kansas is making its yearly attempt to kill me by setting fire to large parts of itself.


----------



## bimble (Mar 2, 2020)

Im about 87% convinced that me and my immediate neighbours (friends) have all had it already (from jan to early feb) . Thought it was just flu but dry cough fever and everyone we met got it. Don’t think that makes me an invincible zombie but more fascinated than terrified tbh.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Mar 2, 2020)

bimble said:


> Im about 87% convinced that me and my immediate neighbours (friends) have all had it already (from jan to early feb) . Thought it was just flu but dry cough fever and everyone we met got it. Don’t think that makes me an invincible zombie but more fascinated than terrified tbh.



But if it had been successfully transmitting in the UK that early, wouldn't we have seen more deaths?

I have had similar thoughts about myself - my husband and I had a cold the week that the virus broke out in China, and we'd taken several planes and spent the day walking round Chengdu six days prior to developing symptoms. It would be nice to think we had developed a mild version of the virus, because then I could be less worried about being a carrier now, but there's no way to know. I wish there was.


----------



## Cid (Mar 2, 2020)

bimble said:


> Im about 87% convinced that me and my immediate neighbours (friends) have all had it already (from jan to early feb) . Thought it was just flu but dry cough fever and everyone we met got it. Don’t think that makes me an invincible zombie but more fascinated than terrified tbh.



Hmm... There was a very coughy flu that went round, so it was probably that. Obviously can't definitively say it was, but the heartless bastard who has workshop space next to me blithely wandered round with it attempting to infect me for a couple of weeks. I didn't get it... I do get the flu vaccine. That is purely anecdotal of course, could be a number of reasons I didn't get it, but there are often flus/other viruses going about that give you one hell of a cough. Got one while I was in China   winter 2018, and one in the UK a couple of years before that.


----------



## bimble (Mar 2, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> But if it had been successfully transmitting in the UK that early, wouldn't we have seen more deaths?
> 
> I have had similar thoughts about myself - my husband and I had a cold the week that the virus broke out in China, and we'd taken several planes and spent the day walking round Chengdu six days prior to developing symptoms. It would be nice to think we had developed a mild version of the virus, because then I could be less worried about being a carrier now, but there's no way to know. I wish there was.


Hmm. 
No way to know obvs but as far as I understand it the idea now is it’s been circulating for at least 6 weeks everywhere where cases are now known to be so if you had a flu like thing with the high fever dry caugh etc it’s possible. Doesn’t mean we zombies couldn’t all catch it a second time though.

As to having seen more deaths , aids was around killing people for about 2 decades before anyone knew there was such a thing as aids I think.


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

I tend to post this sort of graphic from time to time to try to help balance our own thoughts about what we might have been ill with recently. Not that I am ruling anything out, but just look at some of the other possibilities too.

I have been ill once or twice in the last month myself, no way for me to determine what it was. I cant even tell if I was ill with one long thing or two different things during that time.



from https://assets.publishing.service.g...kly_national_influenza_report_week_9_2020.pdf


----------



## Looby (Mar 2, 2020)

One of my colleagues is really panicking about corona but is constantly coughing in the office without ever attempting to put their hand over their mouth. It drives me batshit! I keep hoping someone else will say something so I don’t have to


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

Looby said:


> One of my colleagues is really panicking about corona but is constantly coughing in the office without ever attempting to put their hand over their mouth. It drives me batshit! I keep hoping someone else will say something so I don’t have to



Coughing into hands is a big no no, because then people touch stuff with those hands and you have more surface contamination to worry about.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 2, 2020)

Looby said:


> One of my colleagues is really panicking about corona but is constantly coughing in the office without ever attempting to put their hand over their mouth. It drives me batshit! I keep hoping someone else will say something so I don’t have to



Its time to organise working from home.


----------



## Looby (Mar 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> Coughing into hands is a big no no, because then people touch stuff with those hands and you have more surface contamination to worry about.


Yeah true but still cough into tissue, elbows (sorry) or anything just not spluttering into the air in our open plan office.


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

Looby said:


> Yeah true but still cough into tissue, elbows (sorry) or anything just not spluttering into the air in our open plan office.



Yes, I agree, I was just adding on the point about not coughing onto hands as an extra.

The whole cough into your elbow thing was amusing to me when it first popped onto my radar, given that I became interested in infectious respiratory diseases long after I came up with that name. If it helps people remember that advice and provides opportunities to play off my username then I'm all for it  Its a shame there arent more opportunities for actual puns though.


----------



## Detroit City (Mar 2, 2020)

VP Pence is a total fucking idiot


----------



## quimcunx (Mar 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> I tend to post this sort of graphic from time to time to try to help balance our own thoughts about what we might have been ill with recently. Not that I am ruling anything out, but just look at some of the other possibilities too.
> 
> I have been ill once or twice in the last month myself, no way for me to determine what it was. I cant even tell if I was ill with one long thing or two different things during that time.
> 
> ...



Are rhinoviruses etc all types of corona virus?


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 2, 2020)

bimble said:


> Im about 87% convinced that me and my immediate neighbours (friends) have all had it already (from jan to early feb) . Thought it was just flu but dry cough fever and everyone we met got it. Don’t think that makes me an invincible zombie but more fascinated than terrified tbh.



Yeah, me too - I’ve been off work for over a week with a strong head cold unlike anything I’ve had before, can’t put my finger on it.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> Yes, I agree, I was just adding on the point about not coughing onto hands as an extra.
> 
> The whole cough into your elbow thing was amusing to me when it first popped onto my radar, given that I became interested in infectious respiratory diseases long after I came up with that name. If it helps people remember that advice and provides opportunities to play off my username then I'm all for it  Its a shame there arent more opportunities for actual puns though.



No, no, this one will do


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> Are rhinoviruses etc all types of corona virus?



None of the things listed in that graph are coronaviruses.

They are all things that cause infections, and a whole bunch of them tend to get lumped together as 'the common cold'. Rhinovirus is said to be responsible for quite a percentage of colds, for example.

I was sticking the graphs up to remind people of some of the other possibilities in regards what bug people might have caught in the last 6 weeks that isnt the new coronavirus.

There are a bunch of existing coronaviruses that are responsible for colds too, but these dont tend to be show up in any chart these sorts of seasonal reports, I dont know why. Maybe they are a bigger pain to test for, maybe there are other resons. I have said before that I think its a big shame we didnt pay more attention and learn more about these other coronaviruses in the decades since we discovered them. There are some studies and papers on them, but it doesnt look to me like they've ever been much of a priority.


----------



## lizzieloo (Mar 2, 2020)

It's getting a bit too close now, chap in our London office has it, he'd been skiing in northern italy at half term. Can you imagine how many people were skiing in northern italy at half term?


----------



## elbows (Mar 2, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> My read of Japanese culture is that if told to stay home and self-isolate, they'll tend to comply.  Americans would be using the enforced time off to go shopping or some shit, and feel entitled to do so.



There are some big differences yes, but also some similarities here and there in terms of certain attitudes towards draconian measures and not really getting the point of it. 

eg Hokkaido residents mixed over state of emergency due to coronavirus - The Mainichi


----------



## sihhi (Mar 2, 2020)

lizzieloo said:


> It's getting a bit too close now, chap in our London office has it, he'd been skiing in northern italy at half term. Can you imagine how many people were skiing in northern italy at half term?



Did he self-isolate after returning?


----------



## lizzieloo (Mar 3, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Did he self-isolate after returning?



”was in the **** street Office on Monday 24 Feb.  He was then symptomless, but has since been confirmed as having Covid 19.  It is believed he was infected whilst on a skiing holiday in Northern Italy.  He was placed in self-isolation during Mon 24 Feb.”

That's what was in the email, guessing he was infectious on the day he was in the office.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 3, 2020)

elbows said:


> There are some big differences yes, but also some similarities here and there in terms of certain attitudes towards draconian measures and not really getting the point of it.
> 
> eg Hokkaido residents mixed over state of emergency due to coronavirus - The Mainichi



"I cannot take time off from work easily as I work in the hotel industry. I'm concerned I could become infected with the new virus while on duty and pass it on to my daughter."

These are things which the Singapore government has managed to do well on with a general COVID19 fund MPs have donated 10% of their pay into.

Japan has offered some support:

_On Monday, the health ministry said it will provide a subsidy for firms that created their own paid leave systems over the outbreak and made parents with children attending elementary and special schools or children suspected of being infected with the new coronavirus take leave.

By paying up to 8,330 yen ($77) a day per worker for paid leave between Feb. 27 and March 31, the ministry hopes to help companies compensate workers for income losses._

According to WHO there is local transmission in these European countries: Italy Germany France Spain UK Switzerland Norway Netherlands Croatia Greece Finland


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 3, 2020)

A case in Delhi. If it takes off there it’ll be awful.








						Coronavirus in India: Delhi resident, Hyderabad man test positive for Covid 19 virus | India News - Times of India
					

India News: India on Monday reported two more positive cases and one suspected case of Covid-19. The suspected case is of an Italian tourist who is quarantined at




					timesofindia.indiatimes.com


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 3, 2020)

Twitter orders working from home: Keeping our employees and partners safe during #coronavirus


----------



## spring-peeper (Mar 3, 2020)

.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

> Jamie Dimon, the bank’s chief executive officer, said not long before the announcement that he had dreamed he and other billionaires contracted the virus during January’s World Economic Forum in Switzerland.
> 
> “I had this nightmare that somehow in Davos, all of us who went there got it, and then we all left and spread it,” Dimon said during the bank’s annual investor day. “The only good news from that is that it might have just killed the elite.” His audience chuckled.











						Here's How Wealthy Americans Are Preparing for COVID-19
					

Some billionaires, bankers and other members of the U.S. elite are calm, others are getting anxious




					time.com
				




Prepare the B Ark for launch!


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 3, 2020)

Supermarkets may be expecting to enjoy a panic buying boom - how lovely, great to hear a positive come out of this virus at least 









						Coronavirus: UK supermarkets 'draw up emergency plans for major outbreak' — Sky News
					

Supermarkets are thought to be drawing up "feed-the-nation" plans to cope with potential panic buying caused by the coronavirus outbreak, with one already warning its customers to order early due to "exceptionally high demand".




					apple.news


----------



## NoXion (Mar 3, 2020)

Am I wrong to think that the panic buying idiots should be fucking slapped? They cause nothing but trouble for the rest of us, who don't have tons of cash to spend on being fearful morons. It's just the prepper wannabes and the hypochondriacs right now, but panic has a tendency to snowball and I really can't be fucking arsed to deal with that kind of abject stupidity on a larger scale.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 3, 2020)

NoXion said:


> Am I wrong to think that the panic buying idiots should be fucking slapped? They cause nothing but trouble for the rest of us, who don't have tons of cash to spend on being fearful morons. It's just the prepper wannabes and the hypochondriacs right now, but panic has a tendency to snowball and I really can't be fucking arsed to deal with that kind of abject stupidity on a larger scale.



Depends what you'd class as 'panic buying'. If everyone just buys a few extra bits of food and an extra pack of bog roll on the off chance they have to isolate themselves, that would represent a big spike in demand and would probably result in empty shelves for some items, but it's not going to result in anyone going hungry. 

Panic buying is a thing the press love to talk up but probably not something that actually happens very often. The perfectly normal pre-christmas stockpiling probably creates a bigger surge in demand than any 'panic buying' episode from the last twenty years, it's just that we don't notice that so much because the shops plan for it and bring in more stuff accordingly.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 3, 2020)

elbows said:


> Here's How Wealthy Americans Are Preparing for COVID-19
> 
> 
> Some billionaires, bankers and other members of the U.S. elite are calm, others are getting anxious
> ...



These people. 'Most of the people on Earth want us dead!' _laughter_


----------



## bimble (Mar 3, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> A case in Delhi. If it takes off there it’ll be awful.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yes. Selfishly a little freaked out by the bit about how one of their confirmed cases flew from delhi-europe on an air india flight, as i did 2 days after him. Plane was not clean. Clinging onto my idea that i already had it.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 3, 2020)

elbows said:


> Oh no at the number of Italy deaths.
> 
> 
> 
> From the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-51701043



Yes, and today i checked Facebook and in a group I’m a member of there’s an ignorant woman ranting about the “hysterical overreaction” of her company who have asked one of her team members to self isolate, because two weeks after returning from a trip to Rome he has developed a fever. Her argument is that “the virus was nowhere near there” two weeks ago..

People apparently do think the reported cases numbers being shown in the media are a live readout of exactly where the virus is that day, and by extension everywhere where cases are not being reported is completely safe.


----------



## baldrick (Mar 3, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> A case in Delhi. If it takes off there it’ll be awful.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I am a little freaked out by the possibility of it catching hold in India. About 95% of our staff and students have Indian heritage and a lot will travel over there at Easter or their relatives will come here


----------



## smmudge (Mar 3, 2020)

I overheard the departmental manager saying that "80% of people have recovered and you don't hear that stat on the news" (although he must have read that somewhere) so no problem everything's fine, they're only worried about elderly relatives.


----------



## bimble (Mar 3, 2020)

Looks like a summary list of all known cases so far. 








						Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline
					

The table below shows cases of coronavirus (officially known as SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, or 2019-nCoV) around the world. Each figure is verified by our team through local health departments or local media. A distribution map and a timeline with a list of recent updates can be found below the table...




					bnonews.com


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 3, 2020)

bimble said:


> Yes. Selfishly a little freaked out by the bit about how one of their confirmed cases flew from delhi-europe on an air india flight, as i did 2 days after him. Plane was not clean. Clinging onto my idea that i already had it.



Remember most cases (80%+) are mild.


----------



## Jennastan (Mar 3, 2020)

Jennastan said:


> i always have a cough - being an asthma sufferer. Haven't travelled but i do go in and out of central London, and a busy international office, quite a bit.


OK - today I have a bad stomach and lots of toilet trips. So not what I feared! Phew.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 3, 2020)

Jennastan said:


> OK - today I have a bad stomach and lots of toilet trips. So not what I feared! Phew.


Good news  

I've also been feeling unwell the past few days so know what you've been going through. My symptoms aren't Covid-like (yet?  ) but I'm still mildly concerned.

Health anxiety is shit


----------



## Doctor Carrot (Mar 3, 2020)

Johnson sounds alarmingly out of his depth in this press conference at the moment. Of course we all know he is anyway but he's really exposed on this.

'Em err... um... we're... err... doing stuff... and things... I've no doubt the British can do it'


----------



## 8ball (Mar 3, 2020)

Jennastan said:


> OK - today I have a bad stomach and lots of toilet trips. So not what I feared! Phew.



Now you say it, it _would_ be a good time for a deadly slow-burning gut-dissolution virus to sneak in under the radar...


----------



## krtek a houby (Mar 3, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> My read of Japanese culture is that if told to stay home and self-isolate, they'll tend to comply.  Americans would be using the enforced time off to go shopping or some shit, and feel entitled to do so.



There was a bit of a furore last week when a teacher went to work, despite being ill

_The teacher visited a medical institution on Feb. 12 after feeling nauseous and she was diagnosed with a cold.

She continued to teach, but was hospitalized on Feb. 19 after her condition worsened. She tested positive for the coronavirus on Feb. 21._

Chiba school to suspend classes for 2 days after teacher infected  : The Asahi Shimbun

Do US workers not get paid leave, isn't it? I can imagine some also going to work, so as not to lose pay.


----------



## maomao (Mar 3, 2020)

I can imagine me going to work to not lose pay


----------



## Wilf (Mar 3, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Good news
> 
> I've also been feeling unwell the past few days so know what you've been going through. My symptoms aren't Covid-like (yet?  ) but I'm still mildly concerned.
> 
> Health anxiety is shit


I've got fibromyalgia, which includes 'flu like' symptoms such as muscle aches, tiredness and fuzzy thinking. It's a bit like my body is playing a practical joke on my brain at the moment.


----------



## Archimage (Mar 3, 2020)

My experience being part of the poor American working class, is that most are one paycheck from being homeless.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 3, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> Depends what you'd class as 'panic buying'. If everyone just buys a few extra bits of food and an extra pack of bog roll on the off chance they have to isolate themselves, that would represent a big spike in demand and would probably result in empty shelves for some items, but it's not going to result in anyone going hungry.
> 
> Panic buying is a thing the press love to talk up but probably not something that actually happens very often. The perfectly normal pre-christmas stockpiling probably creates a bigger surge in demand than any 'panic buying' episode from the last twenty years, it's just that we don't notice that so much because the shops plan for it and bring in more stuff accordingly.


Agree, though as a side issue there will be profiteering. Just heard this morning of one person buying 70 lots of antibacterial gel from Aldi in Redcar and then somebody else coming in and taking the rest of the stock (about 100 bottles).


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 3, 2020)

Wilf said:


> I've got fibromyalgia, which includes 'flu like' symptoms such as muscle aches, tiredness and fuzzy thinking. It's a bit like my body is playing a practical joke on my brain at the moment.


It's hard isn't it? I get panic attacks, which obviously affects my breathing.

So I get a bit hot or feel a bit dodgy, then my mind starts wandering and suddenly I've got flu-like symptoms with 'fever' and 'breathing difficulties' - perfect storm for a false positive.

It feels like if I _did _get Covid19, I would not know whether it was a panic attack or actual infection. But I imagine real pneumonia is nothing like the breathing problems I get when I'm panicking, and that's what I keep telling myself. I'll _just know._


----------



## Wilf (Mar 3, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> It's hard isn't it? I get panic attacks, which obviously affects my breathing.
> 
> So I get a bit hot or feel a bit dodgy, then my mind starts wandering and suddenly I've got flu-like symptoms with 'fever' and 'breathing difficulties' - perfect storm for a false positive.
> 
> It feels like if I _did _get Covid19, I would not know whether it was a panic attack or actual infection. But I imagine real pneumonia is nothing like the breathing problems I get when I'm panicking, and that's what I keep telling myself. I'll _just know._


Liked, but not 'liked'. Yeah, that sounds familiar, I have a tendency to let 2+2=5 when thinking about my own health. Strangely enough, the corona thingy hasn't wormed its way into my consciousness yet, so I'm managing to keep things in perspective. Dunno, maybe there's something about being less concerned about external threats than the ones I generate in my mind.


----------



## 8ball (Mar 3, 2020)

Wilf said:


> Dunno, maybe there's something about being less concerned about external threats than the ones I generate in my mind.



Imaginary health issues can be a welcome diversion from darker existential concerns.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 3, 2020)

8ball said:


> Imaginary health issues can be a welcome diversion from darker existential concerns.


'Fuck the environment, it's me piles I'm worrying about'.


----------



## NoXion (Mar 3, 2020)

Wilf said:


> Agree, though as a side issue there will be profiteering. Just heard this morning of one person buying 70 lots of antibacterial gel from Aldi in Redcar and then somebody else coming in and taking the rest of the stock (about 100 bottles).



Where do these profiteering cunts typically show up?


----------



## rookwood (Mar 3, 2020)

Doctor Carrot said:


> Johnson sounds alarmingly out of his depth in this press conference at the moment. Of course we all know he is anyway but he's really exposed on this.
> 
> 'Em err... um... we're... err... doing stuff... and things... I've no doubt the British can do it'



As I’ve mentioned before my background is more in comms / academia though I have taught science communication, and tbh the whole thing looks comms-led to me. And pretty mediocre it is too in those terms. The government is clearly worried there could be a massive political downside to this; their vote may not have cared that the NHS was on the brink of collapse in December, or elected to blame it on the phantom of ‘health tourism’ - ‘Get Brexit Done’ - but if the system collapses under the weight of additional pressure it’s hard to see how the government can get off the hook.

At a political level, it’s worth bearing in mind Johnson has consistently ‘failed up’. He hasn’t been a success in orthodox terms in anything he’s done, other than win a majority at a general election (but demagoguery - which is his thing - doesn’t amount to the skillset you need in a crisis). As Mayor of London he wasted tonnes of money and engaged in scandalous behaviour with public finances that still hasn’t been appropriately examined. As Foreign Secretary he was disastrous (ask Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe). That’s before we get into his career as a journalist. More than this he hasn’t got successful executive experience.

A sufficient proportion of the public were prepared to put that to one side in December; they may be about to reap the whirlwind. It could be argued (with some justice) that Corbyn didn’t have successful executive experience either, and indeed that many Prime Ministers don’t (Blair’s first job in government was Prime Minister), but I suppose the difference with Johnson is he has had executive experience and been consistently disastrous in it. Telling people to get stuffed in Mayoral questions etc might make an amusing clip on the news (for some), but it isn’t what it takes in a major crisis.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 3, 2020)

prunus said:


> Can anyone point me at a source of the historical (day by day) number of cases in Hubei (or China generally) since the beginning of the year?   Thanks.



There's been a big drop in reported cases in China recently. The big peak on this graph, was when the changed the method for reporting cases.











						COVID-19 situation update worldwide
					

This update has been discontinued - please see the Weekly Country Overview report.




					www.ecdc.europa.eu


----------



## bimble (Mar 3, 2020)

NoXion said:


> Where do these profiteering cunts typically show up?


eBay ?


----------



## existentialist (Mar 3, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Trump is giving daily press briefings and has remarked that they have 43 million 3M masks in storage with another 35 million per month (per month!) on order - just in case!
> 
> They are also in talks with other mask manufacturers for further supplies.
> 
> I wonder if our govt is also stockpiling masks?


Just because the cunt Trump says he's doing something, it doesn't mean he is...


----------



## 8ball (Mar 3, 2020)

existentialist said:


> Just because the cunt Trump says he's doing something, it doesn't mean he is...



I think in this case he most likely is, but the numbers will be way off.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 3, 2020)

krtek a houby said:


> There was a bit of a furore last week when a teacher went to work, despite being ill
> 
> _The teacher visited a medical institution on Feb. 12 after feeling nauseous and she was diagnosed with a cold.
> 
> ...



A lot of American workers don't get paid leave.  With pay levels being what they are, losing even one day of pay can be difficult.*   Even if you do have leave, the company culture may frown on using it.

* I have a coworker who recently came to work with pneumonia and a diagnosis of C-diff.  She was afraid to lose work because her husband had just lost his construction job a week before.  She choose to feed her kids over taking care of herself.


----------



## pesh (Mar 3, 2020)

even if the numbers are correct thats a shit situation. 45 million masks to go around 320 million people. and the masks have to be replaced at least once a day to be effective.


----------



## maomao (Mar 3, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> A lot of American workers don't get paid leave.  With pay levels being what they are, losing even one day of pay can be difficult.   Even if you do have leave, the company culture may frown on using it.


I've got twelve days off starting tomorrow even though I'm not going anywhere just because I need to use some up. Vote Bernie.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 3, 2020)

Wilf said:


> Agree, though as a side issue there will be profiteering. Just heard this morning of one person buying 70 lots of antibacterial gel from Aldi in Redcar and then somebody else coming in and taking the rest of the stock (about 100 bottles).



I think I saw an example of corporate price-gouging.  I had to fill a prescription last night and had to wait quite a while.  I checked out the cold and flu remedy section and found prices had been raised to roughly double what they usually run.  The odd thing is that they all had yellow sale cards claiming they were reduced from an even higher price.  But, people will probably pay it.  While I was waiting they had three people come in wanting flu shots, thinking that would help prevent the virus and they had a sign posted that said "We do not have masks".


----------



## bimble (Mar 3, 2020)

Interesting, India will stop exporting the drugs they fear they may need for their own citizens. 








						Coronavirus update: World pharma supplier India restricts export of some ingredients, drugs | India Business News - Times of India
					

India Business News: India, the world's main supplier of generic drugs has restricted export of 26 pharmaceutical ingredients and drugs made from them, including paracetam




					timesofindia.indiatimes.com


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 3, 2020)

maomao said:


> I've got twelve days off starting tomorrow even though I'm not going anywhere just because I need to use some up. Vote Bernie.



I will if they let me.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> While I was waiting they had three people come in wanting flu shots, thinking that would help prevent the virus.



Other possibilities exist too, some of them may not be misinformed about the flu vaccine. Because its still common for the public health advice now to include a recommendation to get flu vaccine, but not to stop covid-19. Rather its to reduce the burden of flu on the system, protect against being infected by both the flu and this coronavirus at the same time, etc.


----------



## LDC (Mar 3, 2020)

I've just had a disagreement/row with someone that's convinced eating garlic makes you immune from the virus and can cure it if you have it. "Why else does India have no cases?" was their retort. Bonkers health stuff is going to skyrocket isn't it?


----------



## bimble (Mar 3, 2020)

Indian politician yesterday saying again cow urine (& being a good Hindu) might cure you. There’s going to be loads of this isn’t there.








						Cow urine, dung can treat coronavirus, says Assam BJP MLA
					

At a time when the coronavirus outbreak has claimed over 3,000 lives globally and a few cases have been detected in India, Suman Haripriya, a BJP MLA from Assam, said that coronavirus is an airborne disease and it can be cured by using 'gaumutra'(cow urine) and cow dung.




					www.indiatoday.in


----------



## 8ball (Mar 3, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I've just had a disagreement/row with someone that's convinced eating garlic makes you immune from the virus and can cure it if you have it. "Why else does India have no cases?" was their retort. Bonkers health stuff is going to skyrocket isn't it?



Has probably mixed up 'eating garlic' with 'being a vampire'.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

elbows said:


> Other possibilities exist too, some of them may not be misinformed about the flu vaccine.



Although of course there will be people for whom the misinformed reason applies.....


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 3, 2020)

bimble said:


> Interesting, India will stop exporting the drugs they fear they may need for their own citizens.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The pharmacist I spoke to last night said they were already expecting shortages from the outbreak in China for fairly common drugs.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 3, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I've just had a disagreement/row with someone that's convinced eating garlic makes you immune from the virus and can cure it if you have it. "Why else does India have no cases?" was their retort. Bonkers health stuff is going to skyrocket isn't it?



I used to work with a Finnish? guy who used to eat garlic sandwiches every morning. I often had early morning meetings with him and made sure I kept at least a metre away from him at all times.


----------



## Mordi (Mar 3, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I've just had a disagreement/row with someone that's convinced eating garlic makes you immune from the virus and can cure it if you have it. "Why else does India have no cases?" was their retort. Bonkers health stuff is going to skyrocket isn't it?



Isn't avoiding 'smelly' foods like garlic and onions part of many diets in India? I think it's one of the things the Hare Krishnas borrowed from Jains.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 3, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I used to work with a Finnish? guy who used to eat garlic sandwiches every morning. I often had early morning meetings with him and made sure I kept at least a metre away from him at all times.



Did he ever get sick?


----------



## two sheds (Mar 3, 2020)

No - good point!!


----------



## 8ball (Mar 3, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> Did he ever get sick?



I guess if anyone incubating a communicable disease won't go anywhere near you, that could have a protective effect.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 3, 2020)

Korea's 31 deaths have this breakdown
80+ 6
70-80 11
60-70 7
60 and under 7 of which 1 in 40s

A colleague of whistleblower doctor Li Wenliang died yesterday.

Apparently 2 of the isolation hospitals (for patients with symptoms) are on the verge of being emptied of patients 
Hubei Health Commissioner says the plan is to gradually phase them out by transfering the serious patients to hospitals and discharging the cured.

Chongqing health department announced that someone had contracted the virus after sitting behind an infected passenger for a very short time on a public bus on 19 January.


----------



## Supine (Mar 3, 2020)




----------



## Flavour (Mar 3, 2020)

Mordi said:


> Isn't avoiding 'smelly' foods like garlic and onions part of many diets in India? I think it's one of the things the Hare Krishnas borrowed from Jains.



it's called Ayurveda, what you're talking about.


----------



## Supine (Mar 3, 2020)

^ just goes to show how useful the MMR vaccine is


----------



## maomao (Mar 3, 2020)

So SARS 2 is less infectious _and _less deadly than SARS. Stroke of luck for the human race that.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

maomao said:


> So SARS 2 is less infectious _and _less deadly than SARS. Stroke of luck for the human race that.



It is not less infectious than SARS.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

I guess this is a pretty good indicator of how serious things are in Iran!



> Tens of thousands of prisoners in Iran have been released temporarily as the country tries to reduce coronavirus infections, officials say.
> 
> More than 54,000 inmates had been let out after testing negative for the virus, Iran's judiciary spokesman Gholamhossein Esmaili said.
> 
> A British MP has said Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a British-Iranian woman detained for almost four years over spying allegations she denies, is expected to be granted a temporary release in the coming days.



(from BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51716375 )


----------



## maomao (Mar 3, 2020)

elbows said:


> It is not less infectious than SARS.


According to Supine 's pictographic.


----------



## Santino (Mar 3, 2020)

elbows said:


> It is not less infectious than SARS.


_Fewer_ infectious


----------



## fishfinger (Mar 3, 2020)

Santino said:


> _Fewer_ infectious


Yes, by one ball.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

I'm just not a fan of talking abour R0 as if it is one number, rather than an estimated range. Nor am I a big fan of comparing different diseases using that measure.

There are just too many factors that can influence the number for my liking, and nor are such things expected to remain constant over time, since human behaviour can have a big impact on the number too.

And different numbers will be found in different reports. For example here is what a paper from January said:



> The R values of 2019-nCoV were 2.90 (95%CI: 2.32-3.63) and 2.92 (95%CI: 2.28-3.67) estimated using EG and ML respectively, while the corresponding R values of SARS-CoV were 1.77 (95%CI: 1.37-2.27) and 1.85 (95%CI: 1.32-2.49). We observe a decreasing trend of the period from onset to isolation and R values of both 2019-nCoV and SARS-CoV.











						Transmission dynamics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
					

Background Since December 29, 2019, pneumonia infection with 2019-nCoV has rapidly spread out from Wuhan, Hubei Province, China to most others provinces and other counties. However, the transmission dynamics of 2019-nCoV remain unclear.  Methods Data of confirmed 2019-nCoV cases before January...




					www.biorxiv.org
				




Or this for comparison:









						Coronavirus may spread faster than WHO estimate
					

An analysis of existing studies suggests that the real spread of the virus may be higher than what the World Health Organization have estimated so far.




					www.medicalnewstoday.com


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 3, 2020)

So does anyone have a good handle on what a mild case of this disease actually looks like, in terms of severity of symptoms and duration?   We are told 80% of cases are mild or asymptomatic, but what does a mild case really mean?  Is it a 3 day, nothing to worry about illness, or is it a two to three week thing which knocks you off your feet?


----------



## Mordi (Mar 3, 2020)

elbows said:


> I guess this is a pretty good indicator of how serious things are in Iran!
> 
> 
> 
> (from BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51716375 )



Fever to the prisons?


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

WHO have been mentioning stuff that is a big part of the reason I dont put much weight on very many estimates yet.





I am not criticising anyone that needs to do proper planning as part of an organisation for using the various estimates that are out there already - you have to use something and these are the best that can be come up with at this stage, and may turn out to be reasonable. They are certainly evidence-based observations, its just a question of whether anything in our current blind spots could radically change the picture. And I personally cannot really take these numbers and run with them to a conclusion, not without results from the serology stuff the WHO is going on about there.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 3, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> So does anyone have a good handle on what a mild case of this disease actually looks like, in terms of severity of symptoms and duration?   We are told 80% of cases are mild or asymptomatic, but what does a mild case really mean?  Is it a 3 day, nothing to worry about illness, or is it a two to three week thing which knocks you off your feet?



Could be both.

Here's a case summary of 2 from the Princess Diamond 









						COVID-19 in 2 Persons with Mild Upper Respiratory Tract Symptoms on a Cruise Ship, Japan
					

COVID-19 in Persons with Mild Respiratory Tract Symptoms




					wwwnc.cdc.gov
				




Case 1 never even had a fever: a cough, soreness in throat (which lasted day 3 - day 5 only) and rhinorrhea (mucus), well enough to work and probably would have done so had there not been notification of the Hong Kong passenger on board the ship


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 3, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> So does anyone have a good handle on what a mild case of this disease actually looks like, in terms of severity of symptoms and duration?   We are told 80% of cases are mild or asymptomatic, but what does a mild case really mean?  Is it a 3 day, nothing to worry about illness, or is it a two to three week thing which knocks you off your feet?



I recalled reading something interesting re this a way back In the thread and have managed to find it - however the relevant part (from an article posted by Supine) was highlighted by you 



MrCurry said:


> Good article. An extract here of what I found the most interesting passage:
> 
> I've observed that the breakout period of the novel coronavirus tends to be three weeks, from the onset of symptoms to developing difficulties breathing. Basically going from mild to severe symptoms takes about a week. There are all sorts of mild symptoms: feebleness, shortness of breath, some people have fevers, some don't. Based on studies of our 138 cases, the most common symptoms in the first stage are fever (98.6 per cent of cases), feebleness (69.6 per cent), cough (59.4 per cent), muscle pains (34.8 per cent), difficulties breathing (31.2%), while less common symptoms include headaches, dizziness, stomach pain, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting.



Tbf that was a while ago and I guess there may be new observations made by this point, although that was reported by a Dr in Wuhan, where they obviously had enough significant experience by then anyway.


----------



## 8ball (Mar 3, 2020)

elbows said:


> I'm just not a fan of talking abour R0 as if it is one number, rather than an estimated range. Nor am I a big fan of comparing different diseases using that measure.



V. fair, but that style of graphic is a nice and really efficient and intuitive way of getting some basic information across imo.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 3, 2020)

elbows - have you heard any more about the two linked cases in the U.S.?



elbows said:


> Genetic analysis of a new Washington State sample from a case that was just discovered, suggests, to the following expert at least, a strong link to the first US case that was detected in the same area in January. Click the tweet to read the full thread.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

8ball said:


> V. fair, but that style of graphic is a nice and really efficient and intuitive way of getting some basic information across imo.



Let me approach it from a different angle, one where I pretend I didnt know much about the numbers involved before I saw that graphic.

I believe the question that would spring to mind would be 'so if SARS is more transmissible, how come we managed to contain that one without it spreading to as many people and countries as this new coronavirus has?'.

I'm pretty sure there are a whole bunch of answers to that question, some of which are probably quite interesting. But I'm getting sick of the sight of my own words so I will leave it for others to answer if they find the angle interesting.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> elbows - have you heard any more about the two linked cases in the U.S.?



I'm not sure what sort of 'contact tracing' stuff we are going to learn about publicly in regards US outbreaks, other than obvious stuff we can make assumptions about or that gets picked up by the press. So in terms of the link between these two cases, it was really all about the genetic similarities and what that allows that branch of science to assume. The assumption in this instance being that the earlier case infected other unknown people, starting a chain of transmission over 6 subsequent weeks that was only picked up on when some rather ill people were tested. Its probably far too broad at this stage to attempt contact/chain of transmission tracing all the way back to the January case. 

Unfortunately it has resulted in, among other things, an institutional outbreak. So it is not hard to find stories about the human side of this growing cluster of cases in Washington State, but I'm not sure thats what you were after.

In terms of the story the genetic detail may be able to tell, I recommend following the nextstrain twitter account, because sometimes when new samples are added to the database/tree, they tell a little story about what the implication is, here are a few examples:


----------



## 8ball (Mar 3, 2020)

elbows said:


> Let me approach it from a different angle, one where I pretend I didnt know much about the numbers involved before I saw that graphic.
> 
> I believe the question that would spring to mind would be 'so if SARS is more transmissible, how come we managed to contain that one without it spreading to as many people and countries as this new coronavirus has?'.
> 
> I'm pretty sure there are a whole bunch of answers to that question, some of which are probably quite interesting. But I'm getting sick of the sight of my own words so I will leave it for others to answer if they find the angle interesting.



Fair point.  Many dimensions - very easy to for different people to read different things into it, plus a lack of precise definition of what the blobs actually mean.

But let's say you're using that schema for representing something a lot simpler - it's a good and easy to read schema, easily translateable, intuitive etc.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> elbows - have you heard any more about the two linked cases in the U.S.?



Oh actually in terms of the original expert who floated this possibility, he has since written a blog post on it:





__





						Cryptic transmission of novel coronavirus revealed by genomic epidemiology
					






					bedford.io
				




A highly recommended post that one, for anyone who intends to follow the whole genome-based approach to epidemiology.



> We know that Wuhan went from an index case in ~Nov-Dec 2019 to several thousand cases by mid-Jan 2020, thus going from initial seeding event to widespread local transmission in the span of ~9-10 weeks. We now believe that the Seattle area seeding event was ~Jan 15 and we're now ~7 weeks later. I expect Seattle now to look like Wuhan around ~1 Jan, when they were reporting the first clusters of patients with unexplained viral pneumonia. We are currently estimating ~600 infections in Seattle, this matches my phylodynamic estimate of the number of infections in Wuhan on Jan 1. Three weeks later, Wuhan had thousands of infections and was put on large-scale lock-down. However, these large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions to create social distancing had a huge impact on the resulting epidemic. China averted many millions of infections through these intervention measures and cases there have declined substantially.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 3, 2020)

elbows said:


> Oh actually in terms of the original expert who floated this possibility, he has since written a blog post on it:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Really interesting but obvs very scary, too.
It's exceptionally frustrating that the dialogue around it being possible to contain (which comes from almost every source) which all use China as the example, still seemingly completely ignores the massive impact of lock-down.
It just seems insane to continue to deliberately ignore that one monumental lesson.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 3, 2020)

From what I could gather from the radio while driving Iran is of great concern at the moment with there being the potential it could have China like levels of infections. 

At my GP surgery their noticeboard said that symptoms can include a runny nose, something that differs from advice that I had earlier seen (not from an authoritative source) which said if you have a runny nose you DONT have it! Who would have thought it - unreliable information from non expert sources.  

As it happens I have had a runny nose for about the last month! :-/


----------



## weltweit (Mar 3, 2020)

Why has the government plan even mentioned that 80% of the population could be infected with a fatality rate of 1%. They seemed to go on to say this was unlikely but why say it then? 

UK Population is 66,440,000 - 80% of that is 53,152,000 and 1% of that is 531,520 - which is a lot of people.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 3, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Could be both.
> 
> Here's a case summary of 2 from the Princess Diamond
> 
> ...



Thanks sihhi, that’s an interesting read and one thing which jumped out at me was that both had sore throat as a symptom, which I have not seen mentioned anywhere in connection with covid19, perhaps to avoid people jumping to the conclusion that their cold is covid.  Instead lots of emphasis on fever, dry cough and weakness. So that’s useful to know.  In both those mild cases it seems their symptoms lasted just about a week, if I understood correctly.



sheothebudworths said:


> I recalled reading something interesting re this a way back In the thread and have managed to find it - however the relevant part (from an article posted by Supine) was highlighted by you
> 
> 
> 
> Tbf that was a while ago and I guess there may be new observations made by this point, although that was reported by a Dr in Wuhan, where they obviously had enough significant experience by then anyway.



Yeah, that was probably from the last time I was asking this same question!  That’s a good article that Supine shared and I was reading it for maybe the fifth time earlier today.  I wonder why sore throat is not mentioned amongst the otherwise quite comprehensive list of symptoms?  Perhaps just an error of omission.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 3, 2020)




----------



## sihhi (Mar 3, 2020)

Italy has hit 79 deaths, the youngest aged 63, it seems the older deteriorate and die quicker, younger deaths take longer.

The WHO briefing was full-on.

_Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died. By comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected.
WHO has shipped nearly half a million sets of personal protective equipment to 27 countries, but supplies are rapidly depleting.
WHO estimates that each month, 89 million medical masks will be required for the COVID-19 response; 76 million examination gloves, and 1.6 million goggles._

Can capitalism deliver? Last time something like this was needed was the second world war.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 3, 2020)

The USA is fucked.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 3, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Italy has hit 79 deaths, the youngest aged 63, it seems the older deteriorate and die quicker, younger deaths take longer.
> 
> The WHO briefing was full-on.
> 
> ...



Have you got a link to the WHO statement?


----------



## Dan U (Mar 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Why has the government plan even mentioned that 80% of the population could be infected with a fatality rate of 1%. They seemed to go on to say this was unlikely but why say it then?
> 
> UK Population is 66,440,000 - 80% of that is 53,152,000 and 1% of that is 531,520 - which is a lot of people.



Because the govt are trying to get peoples heads round a worse case scenario just in case it transpires. 

It also means if we need measures put in we would usually balk at, if they fall short of that then we may find them more palatable. 

It's a fine line they are treading. I don't want to credit Boris for this but I have quite a bit of sympathy with his approach (being driven more by advice than politicians)


----------



## Dan U (Mar 3, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> The USA is fucked.



Saw a tweet thread earlier of a health worker trying to get themselves tested in seattle area due to symptoms and preexisting medical conditions. They basically couldn't. 

And they work with at risk groups.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 3, 2020)

Dan U said:


> Saw a tweet thread earlier of a health worker trying to get themselves tested in seattle area due to symptoms and preexisting medical conditions. They basically couldn't.
> 
> And they work with at risk groups.



It’s not looking great.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 3, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Have you got a link to the WHO statement?







__





						WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 3 March 2020
					






					www.who.int
				




This thing just spreads and spreads. 

11 more from the US evacuation of Princess Diamond tested positive 









						4 Americans exposed to virus on cruise ship leave quarantine
					

Four of the Americans who were exposed to a new virus on a Japanese cruise ship and were being monitored at an Omaha hospital have been released from quarantine. The University of Nebraska Medical Center says two of them never tested positive for the new coronavirus and were cleared for release...




					nebraska.tv
				




Spain's health authorities have banned doctors and nurses from attending group professional events for the next three weeks as a precaution. But La Liga will carry on as normal.

Suspend all but a fraction of most necessary travel & social contact for a month and half (farming, supplies, energy, mining) and perhaps it can be severely slowed. Global ban on non-trade international trade. Otherwise the cost in lives and  economic results will be much higher in the end.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> The USA is fucked.



Pence started going on about blood tests the other day, seemingly unaware that the current tests are swab-based.


----------



## Supine (Mar 3, 2020)

Supine said:


> View attachment 200410





elbows said:


> Pence started going on about blood tests the other day, seemingly unaware that the current tests are swab-based.



He held a prayer session at his first team meeting. Maybe he has some insider info from above.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 3, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> View attachment 200433



That is some seriously professional ass-kissing, right there.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 3, 2020)

I've just read an article that said SARS was brought under control by hygeine (hand washing, etc) and higher temperatures and humidity in the Summer.

I didn't know that humidity had an effect on viruses, and if I had to guess, I would have said more humid is worse - meaning greater spread. Turns out this is not the case.

So, could this explain anything with regards to SARS-CoV2?

I think Northern Italy is humid all year around, so no good news there. What about Iran in winter? I'd have guessed dry, but have no idea.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

I saw humidity being said to have an impact when I was looking at studies about coronaviruses ability to survive on hard surfaces.

Earlier in the outbreak, when the seasonal hopes came up the easiest way to dampen them was to go on about Singapore having spread despite the sort of weather they have there (tropical climate).

But since Singapores numbers have not grown in the same way as other places, I'm not sure I would rush to that point anymore. I dont really know what the full and true story is with Singapore, so its currently on my list of countries where I dont want to make assumptions or try to search too hard to find all the valid explanations for the pattern seen there. It might turn out to be really important for the bigger global picture, but I will just have to wait till something becomes clear, or a revelation, or sufficient time to pass.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> That is some seriously professional ass-kissing, right there.



When draining the swamp was touted, little did we realise that this was to be done via an army of enemas. Still, there is no shortage of supply of arseholes to carry this burden.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

Retrospectively identified Covid-19 deaths in USA and Spain:


----------



## two sheds (Mar 3, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> I've just read an article that said SARS was brought under control by hygeine (hand washing, etc) and higher temperatures and humidity in the Summer.
> 
> I didn't know that humidity had an effect on viruses, and if I had to guess, I would have said more humid is worse - meaning greater spread. Turns out this is not the case.
> 
> ...



One study I quoted above (Coronavirus: Cases triple as infection spreads to Beijing and Shanghai) said:



> High relative humidity seemed less favourable to the virus unless the temperature came down to 6 degree celsius. At this temperature, the survival of the virus was significantly enhanced whatever the rate of relative humidity." He says, "this enhanced survival rate at high relative humidity and low temperature may explain the winter propagation of Coronaviruses." ...


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 3, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> A lot of American workers don't get paid leave.  With pay levels being what they are, losing even one day of pay can be difficult.*   Even if you do have leave, the company culture may frown on using it.
> 
> * I have a coworker who recently came to work with pneumonia and a diagnosis of C-diff.  She was afraid to lose work because her husband had just lost his construction job a week before.  She choose to feed her kids over taking care of herself.



There will be a lot of this in the UK too no doubt. So many precarious workers with no recourse to any kind of sick pay, and no guarantee of their job still being there when they recover.


----------



## BristolEcho (Mar 3, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> There will be a lot of this in the UK too no doubt. So many precarious workers with no recourse to any kind of sick pay, and no guarantee of their job still being there when they recover.



Exactly. And many of them will also be healthcare workers coming into contact with people at higher risk. Fucks.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 3, 2020)

Our government is burying their head in the sand. Veradkar saying its too early to make a call on cancelling St Patrick's day parades. 
Does he seriously think things are going to not get worse?
They're going round making this out to be a mild illness.
Like the % that die from it is negligible. 
I'm really angry with the way they're acting. 😡


----------



## sihhi (Mar 3, 2020)

United Arab Emirates closing all schools for at least 4 weeks, is anyone here in favour of action like this? Plus a weekly subsidy for a caregiver to take time off work.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 3, 2020)

sihhi said:


> United Arab Emirates closing all schools for at least 4 weeks, is anyone here in favour of action like this? Plus a weekly subsidy for a caregiver to take time off work.


I think we've missed the boat to a certain extent, but if I was in charge I'd be up for that, sure. You also need to restrict where the kids go when they're not there, too, or it's a bit pointless.

I'd also cancel all gigs, festivals, sports events, conferences, etc.

I'd ramp up testing massively, and if possible start testing people not showing symptoms/healthy, in areas where there's been an outbreak. We need to get ahead of this, rather than be reactive.

South Korea's drive-thru testing stations seem like a good idea.

I also like China's community representative/nominated shopper. Keep the people going out and mingling to a minimum to reduce spread. I think we'd struggle to do that here as we don't have the same social setup, but we could do something similar by taking over Amazon Prime/Uber/whatever and using them as delivery drivers for estates.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 3, 2020)

Interesting piece in the Guardian on Spanish flu









						Four lessons the Spanish flu can teach us about coronavirus
					

Up to 100 million people died in 1918-19 in the world’s deadliest pandemic. What can we learn?




					www.theguardian.com
				




1) Spanish flu didn't start in Spain but in the trenches and kept secret until it hit Spain
2) Don't dismiss it like Daily Mail and Times and others did with Spanish flu and Johnson is doing with the handshaking with coronavirus
3) Uncontrolled movement can lead to tragic outcomes
4) Potential for a second wave - Spanish flu mutated into a worse form and hit people who hadn't built up immunity first time round (not so likely with coronavirus).


----------



## sihhi (Mar 3, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> I think we've missed the boat to a certain extent, but if I was in charge I'd be up for that, sure. You also need to restrict where the kids go when they're not there, too, or it's a bit pointless.
> 
> I'd also cancel all gigs, festivals, sports events, conferences, etc.
> 
> ...



There aren't tests for that at present - only 1000 a day clearly too few no extra capacity was brought in after seeing the rise in South Korea - you simply have to quarantine these areas as much as possible.

The problem is when it gets too big the areas you have to quarantine get too large leading to Wuhan - now closed for exactly 40 days.

Get the local councillor or volunteers to do the distribution.

Mass events like St Patrick's Day Carnival are like wilfully pouring flames onto the fire something like authorities going ahead with the 19 January 40,000 banquet.

You have to start now, otherwise it's a like a tsunami.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 3, 2020)

sihhi said:


> United Arab Emirates closing all schools for at least 4 weeks, is anyone here in favour of action like this? Plus a weekly subsidy for a caregiver to take time off work.



No. Not yet. The workforce implications for health and social care would be enormous


----------



## sihhi (Mar 3, 2020)

Dan U said:


> No. Not yet. The workforce implications for health and social care would be enormous



Honestly, tell me will they become any easier in four weeks' time?
UAE has had 27 confirmed cases, but they are trying to sieve it out.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 3, 2020)

I cant understand why the WHO is not telling the world what to do. Boris is saying he has no problem shaking hands and lets leave the schools open cos after all kids dont seem to be affected and fuck the teachers like. 
Same shit over here. Theyre living in a bubble. 
The maths is showing that this virus spreads exponentially and quickly. Why are they pussy footing around waiting for a few people to die? How many need to die before they decide to become proactibe as opposed to just reacting. 

Really pissed off. 

The Chinese are doing their damndest and youve got oaf face Johnson and his cuz Veradkar thinking about what they might do??? Some toffy git on telly said they dont know what way this will go. Fuck off. Of course they do. Look at China and Italy ffs. Its fucking obvious.

How the fuck do these idiots get away with being in power? 
String them up by the balls. 😡


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

two sheds said:


> 4) Potential for a second wave - Spanish flu mutated into a worse form and hit people who hadn't built up immunity first time round (not so likely with coronavirus).



I was going to post that article but I didnt like this point much. It is important to consider subsequent waves, but the 'it mutated into a far more deadlier form' thing really sets me off.

I havent spent very much time brushing up on my 1918 flu pandemic knowledge, but the term 'far deadlier' can be ambiguous and misleading. Because humans often perceive disease severity and 'deadliness' not via some precise measure of case fatality rate, but in terms of the sheer number of seriously ill cases, deaths, and disruption to society.

It is certainly considered likely that between its initial appearance and outbreaks, and subsequent, more dramatic waves, that flu virus mutated in ways that improved its ability to bind to human airways. But the major consequence of this is not necessarily that this change made the virus more deadly for any particular individual, but rather had a big impact on the total number of people who caught that flu, a big impact on its transmissibility.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 3, 2020)

Ta for clarification


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

Oh and clicking on the link in the 1918 Daily Mail part of that article did lead to a very interesting long read about press propaganda in regards that flu in the context of war-weariness. I was especially interested when the study paper in question started going on about old attitudes, the idea that state of mind made one more susceptible to such diseases.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Ta for clarification



It is probably also possible that influenza virus mutations could actually have made it more serious for any particular person too, but that stuff is such an overused cliche, and often assumed to be the way these things work even if not actually proven, that even where it may have some truth to it, I feel bound to point out the other aspects that may be less obvious.

Anyway like I said I havent researched that particular aspect very much, but here is something:



> A series of autopsy cases of soldiers who died from influenza in 1918 reveal this evolutionary process; the viral sequences obtained from the lungs of victims who died in May 1918 (before the pandemic really took off), show an HA that binds avian-like receptors and confers poor airborne transmissibility between ferrets. However, by autumn 1918, the autopsy material reveals that the virus had mutated in ways that enhanced its ability to bind human airway receptors, presumably gaining transmissibility. Similar studies of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic virus also showed the transition from a first wave virus only just adapted enough to sustain transmission, to a third wave virus that had potentiated its adaptation to its new host.





			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2600(18)30272-8/fulltext
		


That article in turn links to this:









						Autopsy series of 68 cases dying before and during the 1918 influenza pandemic peak
					

The 1918 to 1919 “Spanish” influenza pandemic virus killed up to 50 million people. We report here clinical, pathological, bacteriological, and virological findings in 68 fatal American influenza/pneumonia military patients dying between May and October of 1918, a period that includes ∼4 mo...




					www.pnas.org
				






> Sequence analysis of the viral hemagglutinin receptor-binding domain performed on RNA from 13 cases suggested a trend from a more “avian-like” viral receptor specificity with G222 in prepandemic cases to a more “human-like” specificity associated with D222 in pandemic peak cases. Viral antigen distribution in the respiratory tree, however, was not apparently different between prepandemic and pandemic peak cases, or between infections with viruses bearing different receptor-binding polymorphisms. The 1918 pandemic virus was circulating for at least 4 mo in the United States before it was recognized epidemiologically in September 1918. The causes of the unusually high mortality in the 1918 pandemic were not explained by the pathological and virological parameters examined.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 3, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Honestly, tell me will they become any easier in four weeks' time?



No, but the effects might last four weeks longer if we jump the gun. Given that no drastic action will be taken by the UK government until containment is well and truly off the table, any such action should at least be geared towards keeping health services and other vital infrastructure working. Anything that increases the strain on that infrastructure with little real prospect of affecting the numbers of people who ultimately contract the virus will be counterproductive. You'll have people needlessly dying from stuff that has nothing to do with coronavirus.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

There are also consequences of acting early in terms of what percentage of the population will think its an insane overreaction, a disgrace that must be opposed etc.

If you dont try to do it till the number of cases and deaths starts to build significantly then you probably bypass a bunch of that unhelpful 'fuss over nothing' response from sections of the population.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 3, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Honestly, tell me will they become any easier in four weeks' time?
> UAE has had 27 confirmed cases, but they are trying to sieve it out.



Back to the balancing act. 

As I posted a few days back, from a workforce perspective mass shut downs is a v poor outcome. Shut a load of schools in an area and you knock out a significant chunk of workers who then become carers.

Given the vacancy numbers in NHS and Social care (let alone other key services and industries) this becomes problematic quite quickly. People may die if you do something. People may die if you do nothing. 

I have a lot of sympathy for people making these calls (I work in social care and have been involved in scenario planning)


----------



## sihhi (Mar 3, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> No, but the effects might last four weeks longer. Given that no drastic action will be taken by the UK government until containment is well and truly off the table, any such action should at least be geared towards keeping health services and other vital infrastructure working. Anything that increases the strain on that infrastructure with little real prospect of affecting the numbers of people who ultimately contract the virus will be counterproductive. You'll have people needlessly dying from stuff that has nothing to do with coronavirus.



'People needlessly dying from stuff that has nothing to do with coronavirus' is exactly what will happen when business as usual goes on and hospitals get full:- the examples are there in Wuhan, in Zhenzhou, in Iran and in Daegu aswell now. Anything non-pneumonia is cancelled.

Containment is already off the table with community spread already ongoing.

School closures where a partner/significant other/friend/named volunteer can perform home childcare makes sense,   teenagers stay at home by themselves.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 3, 2020)

I know I have a social care focus here but that is my world.

Read the exec summary of this report 

Over 1m workers in social care. Over 80% are female (therefore likely to become the main carer in a family crisis). Vacancy rate over 100k. Real crisis of non NHS nurses. 
Big chunk on zero hours. These are the people who support everyone outside of hospitals. Which is a huge number

This is one of the many things keeping planners awake at night.



			https://www.skillsforcare.org.uk/adult-social-care-workforce-data/Workforce-intelligence/documents/State-of-the-adult-social-care-sector/State-of-Report-2019.pdf


----------



## sihhi (Mar 3, 2020)

Dan U said:


> As I posted a few days back, from a workforce perspective mass shut downs is a v poor outcome. Shut a load of schools in an area and you knock out a significant chunk of workers who then become carers.



Other countries have managed and done it early particularly Vietnam getting a grip on community spread (they also quarantined the bits of the border region).
I feel proactive measures are required, loads of people who don't have children could do stuff contact tracing or whatever.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 3, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Other countries have managed and done it early particularly Vietnam getting a grip on community spread (they also quarantined the bits of the border region).
> I feel proactive measures are required, loads of people who don't have children could do stuff contact tracing or whatever.



You are comparing the UK to cultures where they look after their own elderly. We don't do that.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 3, 2020)

Dan U said:


> I know I have a social care focus here but that is my world.
> 
> Read the exec summary of this report
> 
> ...



I do understand, I have caring duties living beside my sick mother.

However we can also have the opposite scenario: transmission from child (acquired at school) to careworker parent (all within the 14 day incubation period) and then going on to do social care.

The deaths in America are from a nursing home with an infected asymptomatic worker suspected in the process.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 3, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I do understand, I have caring duties living beside my sick mother.
> 
> However we can also have the opposite scenario: transmission from child (acquired at school) to careworker parent (all within the 14 day incubation period) and then going on to do social care.
> 
> The deaths in America are from a nursing home with an infected asymptomatic worker suspected in the process.



There are no easy answers here. I'm not disputing that. My instinct is like yours, shut everything, but I can see why the planners aren't doing it.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

Yet another angle to look at it from is that the most draconian periods, lockdowns etc are only sustainable for a certain period of time.

So you have to pick and choose when that time will be.

I dont know if doing it at the very start would actually have made sense, given that the very start wasnt the real start, there had been lag, and so the virus had already been seeded to various parts of the globe. If it had been contained in one or a few locations then the equations would be different. But instead we have a situation where, even if we locked down and used all our 'war footing' capacity to avoid community spread here, we would be vulnerable as soon as we were forced to relax everything again. Time gained would be at the expense of everything from morale to supplies and capacity. We would have delayed the first peak, without doing anything to actually change the shape of the peak when it ultimately arrived. As opposed to what it sounds like they are actually going to try, which is to introduce the most extreme response only when the first epidemic is considered to be fully underway.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 3, 2020)

I don't think this is something that can be "picked and chosen", I think community spread means that where that happened the social distancing must begin ASAP.

I don't see why supplies would be further expleted the social structures and formations in that area have to change not the supply of goods in toto, if anything supplies would be less, people in that area would essentially not go out saving on the alcohol sanitiser.



> which is to introduce the most extreme response only when the first epidemic is considered to be fully underway.



By which time the spread is too great and the area of application has to be widened and the time of application has to be extended.

In Wuhan in spite of everyone wear masks or face imprisonment there are still a lot of infective people from David Cowhig's diary a day ago

_Yesterday I was still asking where those several hundred new coronavirus cases found each day in Wuhan come from. Today Mother told me that her two elder sisters yesterday got confirmed diagnoses of coronavirus pneumonia. An elderly auntie who lives alone ran out of food after twenty days. About a week before she got her diagnosis, she spent several days shopping I heard she joined a group purchasing group as well. Two days later she developed a low-grade fever. She probably believed then that she could leave things to luck but her condition suddenly got worse two days later. Her breathing became labored and by the time she called the 120 emergency assistance number she had nearly fainted._

It's been 40 days and still restrictions can't be lifted, there's still spread going on.
In other places where restrictions started sooner w.r.t. community transmission they have already been lifted. In several provinces there are basically no restrictions except masks and earlier closures of venues in the evenings.

I think the British government ideas are just based around respiratory infective diseases like influenza where the infective asymptomatic period is 1-2 days, but here we have 5-7 days. I _want _obviously to be proved wrong, that it is under control and being handled well.


----------



## elbows (Mar 3, 2020)

Well I'm not claiming its being handled well, and at no stage have I had any sense that it is under control.

Its too early to comment on China really because we have to wait and see what actually happens there in the weeks and months after restrictions are relaxed.

There is a lot of uncharted territory, mixed in with stuff we think we have learnt about this virus, various preconceived notions and balancing acts. I'm really just commenting on some of these as we go along. I dont know which options and timing will turn out to be best, whether minds will suddenly be changed at some point and the plan changed, whether I will have to wait 2 weeks or 2 months to learn some important new lessons (or have existing ones confirmed).


----------



## krtek a houby (Mar 4, 2020)

8ball said:


> I guess if anyone incubating a communicable disease won't go anywhere near you, that could have a protective effect.



Also, don't drink bleach


----------



## spring-peeper (Mar 4, 2020)

Was watching our local news and they did a piece on Ellen DeGeneres.   She has a television show, "Ellen", and it has a very large audience.

She devoted part of her show to "how to wash your hands".  The entire thing was based on the WHO's 17 step procedure.

Really got a chuckle when she was demonstrating how to wash between your fingers.  "Here is the church and here is the steeple, open the doors - and see all the people running from the virus."
I guess it is only funny if you know the childhood rhyme.


----------



## keybored (Mar 4, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> I guess it is only funny if you know the childhood rhyme.


No.


----------



## killer b (Mar 4, 2020)

even then


----------



## spring-peeper (Mar 4, 2020)

It's a fricking joke - lighten up!!!

remind me again, aren't you supposed to sing your national anthem while washing your hands ->


----------



## killer b (Mar 4, 2020)

no.


----------



## elbows (Mar 4, 2020)

Spot the flaw in this thinking:



> Just looking back at the press conference given just after noon by the NSW health minister Brad Hazzard and the chief medical officer Kerry Chant; the key take-away is there are now two cases in that state of people being infected with coronavirus where the infection can not be traced back to a source. This means community transmission has occurred, though the community transmission has so far been contained in both cases – there is no widespread infection occurring.





> The latest case of community transmission involves a 50-year-old woman working at the BaptistCare Dorothy Henderson Lodge aged care facility in northern Sydney. She had not travelled to an affected country. On Monday, a 53-year-old doctor working at Ryde hospital was also diagnosed, and again he had not travelled to an infected country. Neither had knowingly been in contact with an infected person.



 42m ago 02:42 

There is other stuff I could go on about in that entry too but I ran out of energy for it.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 4, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> remind me again, aren't you supposed to sing your national anthem while washing your hands ->


I'd rather stick pins in my eyes than sing that awful dirge.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 4, 2020)

elbows said:


> Although of course there will be people for whom the misinformed reason applies.....




I think he’s looking to make amends.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 4, 2020)

elbows said:


> Yet another angle to look at it from is that the most draconian periods, lockdowns etc are only sustainable for a certain period of time.
> 
> So you have to pick and choose when that time will be.
> 
> I dont know if doing it at the very start would actually have made sense, given that the very start wasnt the real start, there had been lag, and so the virus had already been seeded to various parts of the globe. If it had been contained in one or a few locations then the equations would be different. But instead we have a situation where, even if we locked down and used all our 'war footing' capacity to avoid community spread here, we would be vulnerable as soon as we were forced to relax everything again. Time gained would be at the expense of everything from morale to supplies and capacity. We would have delayed the first peak, without doing anything to actually change the shape of the peak when it ultimately arrived. As opposed to what it sounds like they are actually going to try, which is to introduce the most extreme response only when the first epidemic is considered to be fully underway.



I saw a press conference, and I can't remember if it was the chief medical officer or chief scientific officer that was speaking, but that's actually what they said, when explaining now wouldn't be the right time for the most draconian measures.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 4, 2020)

Supine said:


> View attachment 200410



Hmm... really puts Covid-19 into perspective.


----------



## bimble (Mar 4, 2020)

NoXion said:


> Where do these profiteering cunts typically show up?


Amazon struggles to halt tide of coronavirus profiteers


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 4, 2020)

bimble said:


> Amazon struggles to halt tide of coronavirus profiteers



It’s an absolute disgrace - I had a look on Amazon UK site the other day and some 3M masks were £78 and described for use as protection against Coronavirus in attempt to profiteer over people’s concerns.

And I’m not convinced Amazon give a fuck as they cream 15% off 3rd party sales, so - whatever they say may well just be lip service.


----------



## albionism (Mar 4, 2020)

How are you all doing for bog roll? Most of Australia looks like this...


----------



## Dan U (Mar 4, 2020)

albionism said:


> How are you all doing for bog roll? Most of Australia looks like this...
> View attachment 200483



A waitrose in Surrey last night - getting there!


----------



## 2hats (Mar 4, 2020)

How's the Izal shelf looking?


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 4, 2020)

I dont understand how the Irish government is faffing about. Just like the UK with Boris insisting on shaking hands etc and saying that schools wont need to close. And they dont know how it will pan out????? Wtf???

I mean one look at news around the world shows how other countries are dealing with this.


South Korean soldiers spray antiseptic solution against the coronavirus in Guryong, Seoul


So how come the reaction in certain parts of the world is so careful? And the governments in the UK and Ireland are blissfully wandering around in feigned ignorance? Are they afraid people will panic if they tell the truth? Sure everyone sees how the world is dealing with this. Do they think people are thick?


----------



## 8ball (Mar 4, 2020)

The markets.  The virus is chiefly being handled in terms of a threat to accumulated wealth.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 4, 2020)

Second case diagnosed in the Republic of Ireland. That's 3 on the island of Ireland.

The second case is in the east of the country. A woman who travelled from Italy..
The first case, a secondary school pupil, is still in hospital.  The school he attends has beeb closed for 3 weeks and a band practice group he attended last weekend, has also been asked to self isolate.


And yet Varadkar is saying to go ahead with st Patricks day parades? 
And we have Prince William over here cracking jokes saying to paramedics that the coronavirus is a bit hyped up by the media 
..fuckwit. 


He asked Joe Mooney, an advance paramedic with the National Ambulance Service: “I bet everyone’s like ‘I’ve got coronavirus, I’m dying’, and you’re like ‘no, you’ve just got a cough’.

“Does it seem quite dramatic about coronavirus at the moment? Is it being a little bit hyped up do you think in the media?”








						Prince William jokes about 'spreading coronavirus' during Irish visit
					

The Duke and Duchess of Cambridge are on a three-day visit to Ireland.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## Looby (Mar 4, 2020)

albionism said:


> How are you all doing for bog roll? Most of Australia looks like this...
> View attachment 200483


We needed loo roll yesterday and there was loads. Got 24 rolls of Andrex for 7 quid so we’re doing ok here. 👍


----------



## Supine (Mar 4, 2020)

Lupa said:


> I dont understand how the Irish government is faffing about. Just like the UK with Boris insisting on shaking hands etc and saying that schools wont need to close. And they dont know how it will pan out????? Wtf???
> 
> I mean one look at news around the world shows how other countries are dealing with this.
> 
> ...



As some of the worlds experts in this kind of thing I'd trust the UK response more tbh. Being the experts we can perhaps have a more measured response.

I'm talking about the health care professionals here  - not our crappy politicians.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 4, 2020)

Looby said:


> We needed loo roll yesterday and there was loads. Got 24 rolls of Andrex for 7 quid so we’re doing ok here. 👍



Been stocking up on loo roll for the past 3 months...since Brexit shit. Most loo roll is imported here. 
Currently have 60 rolls.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 4, 2020)

Interesting article talking about how all the numbers are basically massively influenced by different governments' approaches to testing, and they really can't tell you anything about whether or not the virus is spreading faster or slower:









						The Official Coronavirus Numbers Are Wrong, and Everyone Knows It
					

Because the U.S. data on coronavirus infections are so deeply flawed, the quantification of the outbreak obscures more than it illuminates.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 4, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Been stocking up on loo roll for the past 3 months...since Brexit shit. Most loo roll is imported here.
> Currently have 60 rolls.


I guess most of the UKs is - at least the woodpulp.  The product may be made here though.  Dock leaves are always a last resort if desperate.


----------



## maomao (Mar 4, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> I guess most of the UKs is - at least the woodpulp.  The product may be made here though.  Dock leaves are always a last resort if desperate.


Might start picking up a Metro on the train to work.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 4, 2020)

maomao said:


> Might start picking up a Metro on the train to work.


You dont want rectal coronavirus.  You never know whose grubby mitts have touched free papers.


----------



## weepiper (Mar 4, 2020)

Two more Scottish cases this morning.









						Two more cases of coronavirus confirmed in Scotland, taking total of positive tests to three
					

It comes on the back of the first positive test over the weekend.




					www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com


----------



## Plumdaff (Mar 4, 2020)

We're woefully unprepared. I work in a non-emergency part of the NHS so I understand we're no-one's priority right now, but without austerity and with some decent long term contingency planning we could be better prepared. We do telephone assessments, so if we had work laptops/remote access from home a lot of that work could carry on, even if people needed to stay at home. We run groups, and have for years tried to talk to more senior managers about investment in Google Hangouts, Skype etc that would allow even one to one therapy to happen remotely. Of course, there hasn't been money available for any of this. 

This means that if we get high absence and/or schools close (which would mean a significant majority of our workforce would have to be at home) we'd struggle to cover even the telephone side of our work.


----------



## Edie (Mar 4, 2020)

Plumdaff said:


> We're woefully unprepared. I work in a non-emergency part of the NHS so I understand we're no-one's priority right now, but without austerity and with some decent long term contingency planning we could be better prepared. We do telephone assessments, so if we had work laptops/remote access from home a lot of that work could carry on, even if people needed to stay at home. We run groups, and have for years tried to talk to more senior managers about investment in Google Hangouts, Skype etc that would allow even one to one therapy to happen remotely. Of course, there hasn't been money available for any of this.
> 
> This means that if we get high absence and/or schools close (which would mean a significant majority of our workforce would have to be at home) we'd struggle to cover even the telephone side of our work.


I work in a hospital, with inpatient wards. We don’t have sufficient PPE. Should this turn into an epidemic in the UK, we don’t have enough commodes to even isolate patients in what side rooms we have. There’s no clearly communicated plan beyond the most vague about suspected Covid19, isolating patients, testing them, etc. Or about staff like me who are immonocompromised and whether we should/shouldn’t come to work.

It’s a joke. Boris and his government and the NHS as a whole is a joke.

edit: we need some fucking leadership


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 4, 2020)

Edie said:


> I work in a hospital, with inpatient wards. We don’t have sufficient PPE. Should this turn into an epidemic in the UK, we don’t have enough commodes to even isolate patients in what side rooms we have. There’s no clearly communicated plan beyond the most vague about suspected Covid19, isolating patients, testing them, etc. Or about staff like me who are immonocompromised and whether we should/shouldn’t come to work.
> 
> It’s a joke. Boris and his government and the NHS as a whole is a joke.
> 
> edit: we need some fucking leadership


all nhs organisations ought to have emergency plans (NHS England » Guidance and Framework). many of them are available to view on the internet (search _inurl:nhs.uk "emergency plan" filetype: pdf_) given the situation you really should have been given some notion of what the plan (!) is

this page NHS England » Coronavirus (COVID-19) seems to have the most up to date nhs information on it

but the information you're looking for - not sure where it is - ought to be provided to you as a matter of course


----------



## Edie (Mar 4, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> all nhs organisations ought to have emergency plans (NHS England » Guidance and Framework). many of them are available to view on the internet (search _inurl:nhs.uk "emergency plan" filetype: pdf_)
> 
> this page NHS England » Coronavirus (COVID-19) seems to have the most up to date nhs information on it


Fucking hell Pickmans    MANSPLAIN away mate


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 4, 2020)

Edie said:


> Fucking hell Pickmans    MANSPLAIN away mate


i've only ever come across emergency plans for organisations i've worked in by chance: and my colleagues have never encountered them at all. so i'm sorry it came across as mansplaining, what i took from your post was the information you wanted wasn't being provided and the suggestions i made were made in the hope that they might offer you what you sought.


----------



## Edie (Mar 4, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> i've only ever come across emergency plans for organisations i've worked in by chance: and my colleagues have never encountered them at all. so i'm sorry it came across as mansplaining, what i took from your post was the information you wanted wasn't being provided and the suggestions i made were made in the hope that they might offer you what you sought.


I know x Just made me laugh. I’ve seen The Plan. It’s pitiful. It’s a shit flow chart (and accompanying word doc) on the intranet. It bears little relation to what the reality of an actual epidemic in the UK would entail. Occupational Health haven’t managed to return my email. It’s just the reality of working in the NHS which is no longer fit for purpose. I mean let’s face it, the NHS cannot prepare for winter let alone a pandemic.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 4, 2020)

Edie said:


> I work in a hospital, with inpatient wards. We don’t have sufficient PPE. Should this turn into an epidemic in the UK, we don’t have enough commodes to even isolate patients in what side rooms we have. There’s no clearly communicated plan beyond the most vague about suspected Covid19, isolating patients, testing them, etc. Or about staff like me who are immonocompromised and whether we should/shouldn’t come to work.
> 
> It’s a joke. Boris and his government and the NHS as a whole is a joke.
> 
> edit: we need some fucking leadership


Must admit, I haven't looked at the government's plans so far, but I'd also be astonished if there was anything approaching a realistic plan for care homes, vulnerable adults in the community etc. If we get to the point where government advises the elderly and those with underlying conditions to stay at home as much as possible that will require a major effort - something we just don't have capacity for. Decades of neoliberalism and privatisation has us in a very dangerous place. It might be that the initial infections are amongst the healthy (wealthy even) and those who travel by air, but the real casualties are likely to be the most vulnerable and those without support.


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 4, 2020)

Wilf said:


> Must admit, I haven't looked at the government's plans so far, but I'd also be astonished if there was anything approaching a realistic plan for care homes, vulnerable adults in the community etc. If we get to the point where government advises the elderly and those with underlying conditions to stay at home as much as possible that will require a major effort - something we just don't have capacity for. Decades of neoliberalism and privatisation has us in a very dangerous place. It might be that the initial infections are amongst the healthy (wealthy even) and those who travel by air, but the real casualties are likely to be the most vulnerable and those with support.


being as the advice seems to be to stay in and self-isolate, i fear many corpses will be discovered some time after they've died.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 4, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> being as the advice seems to be to stay in and self-isolate, i fear many corpses will be discovered some time after they've died.


'Liked' if not liked.  Yeah, exactly that, people isolated and ill, along with those who isolate due to panic. A further reason why profiteers and those who will be ramping up the anxiety need a good kicking.


----------



## kalidarkone (Mar 4, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> all nhs organisations ought to have emergency plans (NHS England » Guidance and Framework). many of them are available to view on the internet (search _inurl:nhs.uk "emergency plan" filetype: pdf_) given the situation you really should have been given some notion of what the plan (!) is
> 
> this page NHS England » Coronavirus (COVID-19) seems to have the most up to date nhs information on it
> 
> but the information you're looking for - not sure where it is - ought to be provided to you as a matter of course


It's not. Not the kind of details that need to be passed out on a department by departmental  basis. Specific advice taking into account the environment. For example I work with people having day surgery as well as people coming in to stay and emergency surgery.

There is a reception that people wait in and hundreds of people passing through every day. Plus patients from the wards having surgery that are already unwell.

I went to back to work yesterday after 10 days off and despite things moving on a lot in that time re coronavirus nothing was different and no one seemed bothered. In fact they all seemed to think I was being really paranoid. Maybe I am? I'm finding it hard to get perspective tbh. I did have to tell two members of staff to wash their hands after they sneezed on them   -both nurses.


----------



## elbows (Mar 4, 2020)

kalidarkone said:


> I went to back to work yesterday after 10 days off and despite things moving on a lot in that time re coronavirus nothing was different and no one seemed bothered. In fact they all seemed to think I was being really paranoid. Maybe I am? I'm finding it hard to get perspective tbh. I did have to tell two members of staff to wash their hands after they sneezed on them   -both nurses.



Your perspective will stand the test of time, theirs will feature an ugly reality check at some point which is more likely to leave them panic-stricken and paranoid.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 4, 2020)

kalidarkone Try to explain the pace of cases will be rapid and without training for staff on where the green zone and red zone is in a hospital things will get worse even quicker

Here's yesterday's Washington Post article on Italy:

One infectious-disease doctor said coronavirus had hit _"like a tsunami" _at his hospital, where more than 100 out of 120 people admitted with the virus have also developed pneumonia. Another hospital nearby is facing staff shortages as doctors have become patients.
Doctors, virologists and health-care officials on the front line of Italy’s battle against coronavirus, in more than a dozen interviews, described a health-care system stretched to its limits — a situation other countries may face as the virus spreads.
In an effort to cope, Italy is graduating nurses early and calling medical workers out of retirement. Hospitals in the hardest-hit regions are delaying nonessential surgeries and scrambling to add 50 percent more intensive-care beds.
“This is the worst scenario I’ve seen,” said Angelo Pan, the head of the infectious-disease unit at the hospital in Cremona, noting the prevalence of pneumonia complications. He said 35 patients in his hospital required intubation or mechanical ventilation to breathe.

Italy within two weeks is already calling up student nurses


----------



## kalidarkone (Mar 4, 2020)

elbows said:


> Your perspective will stand the test of time, theirs will feature an ugly reality check at some point which is more likely to leave them panic-stricken and paranoid.


Perhaps. My current perspective is that if the Government seem concerned which seems to be increasing daily then it's probably 10 x worse. Like the tip of an iceberg or when you see one  mouse in your house and know that you have at least ten  .  

My other clue is the government spin on the efficiency of the NHS.


----------



## elbows (Mar 4, 2020)

They arent even downplaying the current likely reality much!









						PM: workers with coronavirus will get sick pay from day one
					

Boris Johnson also hints at further measures to stop gig economy workers losing pay if they need to self-isolate




					www.theguardian.com
				






> “When I was here previously, we were firmly in contain stage. Now I think we are on the borderline between containing and delaying. But many of the things you do to contain it also delay it.”


----------



## elbows (Mar 4, 2020)




----------



## sihhi (Mar 4, 2020)

Here is solid advice from a doctor in Italy:









						Italian doctor describes life on the front lines of COVID-19 outbreak
					

An Italian doctor on the front lines of the COVID-19 outbreak in his country suggests Canadian doctors remain vigilant when it comes to diagnosing patients.



					www.ctvnews.ca
				




1 Don't rule out patients because a bacterial pneumonia test has come through:
_“You cannot rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection just because you have contemporary bacterial pneumonia,” he told CTV News._

2 Watch out immediately for healthcare workers with fever or cough:
_“Be very, very attentive in any case of interstitial pneumonia and any case of healthcare workers that may develop minimum symptoms, because at the very beginning of the epidemic you do not have information regarding the spread inside your country and so you expect all the cases will come from abroad.”_

3 Be ready to supply oxygen quickly:
_What makes containing the virus even more difficult, Guaraldi said, is that some patients in hospital can appear fine, but then start to rapidly show symptoms._

4 Use telemedicine sensibly
_Italy has also been turned to telemedicine to help track and communicate with those in quarantine. This approach can help ease a log jam at health care facilities and reduces the risk of spreading infection._


----------



## 8ball (Mar 4, 2020)

sihhi said:


> 3 Be ready to supply oxygen quickly:
> _What makes containing the virus even more difficult, Guaraldi said, is that some patients in hospital can appear fine, but then start to rapidly show symptoms._



So what is the crucial marker for getting people into hospital?  Because depending on clarity and timelines with that, people may not be in the hospital at the point where they clearly need oxygen?

edit: Sorry, that came over a bit inquisitorial - hope you see what I mean.


----------



## Thora (Mar 4, 2020)

Just had an email from Morrison’s to say my shopping delivery today is missing hand wash and toilet roll and they can’t substitute anything 
I’m a childminder so get through a lot of both.


----------



## 8ball (Mar 4, 2020)

Thora said:


> Just had an email from Morrison’s to say my shopping delivery today is missing ... toilet roll and they can’t substitute anything



I'm still getting the usual tonnage of pizza flyers through the door...


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Mar 4, 2020)

8ball said:


> I'm still getting the usual tonnage of pizza flyers through the door...


They are shiny paper though....which as everyone old enough to remember Izaz medicated toilet paper knows, is completely useless.


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Mar 4, 2020)

If the bog roll runs out, I will be washing my undercarriage in the shower a lot 

We should all have the Asian arsehose that is in all the loos in SE Asia anyway. Much cleaner and no paper required at all.


----------



## 8ball (Mar 4, 2020)

Mrs Miggins said:


> They are shiny paper though....which as everyone old enough to remember Izaz medicated toilet paper knows, is completely useless.



The People were asked and The People voted for nostalgia.


----------



## og ogilby (Mar 4, 2020)

8ball said:


> I'm still getting the usual tonnage of pizza flyers through the door...


Where's the yellow pages when you need it?


----------



## two sheds (Mar 4, 2020)

og ogilby said:


> Where's the yellow pages when you need it?



Ta for that, I forgot I've got an emergency supply  Local newspapers too, very good in  an emergency.


----------



## og ogilby (Mar 4, 2020)

I've found baking your turds for an extra 6 to 8 hours leaves your arse almost not needing to be wiped at all.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 4, 2020)

Mrs Miggins said:


> If the bog roll runs out, I will be washing my undercarriage in the shower a lot
> 
> We should all have the Asian arsehose that is in all the loos in SE Asia anyway. Much cleaner and no paper required at all.



I completely agree. British bum hygiene is terrible, sort of unbelievable if you've ever gotten used to any system that involves washing bums with, you know, water.

Anyway, life is going on quite normally here in Northern Italy. As the % above stated (and I'm inclined to agree with it being the common perception) quarantine is not a particularly welcome idea here. The health service is under serious strain (especially as the population is so old) and I don't think brining old doctors and nurses out of retirement will be helpful, it will infect a lot of them. But outside, for the rest of the country, people stubbornly just want to get on with life as normal.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 4, 2020)

Coronavirus mutates into second strain which is more aggressive and contagious
					

Scientists from Peking University said they had found that two main types of the new coronavirus could be causing infections



					www.google.com
				




This doesn't look good 😥


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (Mar 4, 2020)

Flavour said:


> Anyway, life is going on quite normally here in Northern Italy.



Literally two minutes later:


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 4, 2020)

TheHoodedClaw said:


> Literally two minutes later:




About time


----------



## Flavour (Mar 4, 2020)

For fuck's sake. Ok, good timing. I continue to argue that such measures are completely pointless because the kids will a) continue hanging out with each other outside their houses in public anyway and b) probably have to spend more time with grandparents as parents can't take time off work to look after kids. So putting the elderly in more direct contact with the young than they might otherwise have had in the time period, meaning elderly grandparents get infected more often too. At the risk of being lumped in with the section of the population that thinks it's all a big fuss over nothing, I genuinely don't think this will do much to contain the outbreak in the country.


----------



## 2hats (Mar 4, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Coronavirus mutates into second strain which is more aggressive and contagious
> 
> 
> Scientists from Peking University said they had found that two main types of the new coronavirus could be causing infections
> ...


The journalists are failing (wilfully or otherwise) to notice that the research authors use the term 'aggressive' to describe the transmissivity and/or replication rate of the virus (the so-called L type being more so than the S type). They do not use it to characterise the fatality rate, nor indeed the degree of lack of wellbeing of those infected. Original paper is DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwaa036.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 4, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Coronavirus mutates into second strain which is more aggressive and contagious
> 
> 
> Scientists from Peking University said they had found that two main types of the new coronavirus could be causing infections
> ...



I don't understand that headline, as the article suggests 2 strains from the start, but the more aggressive one has decreased since the start of the year. 



> The preliminary study found that a more aggressive type of the new coronavirus associated with the disease outbreak in Wuhan accounted for about 70% of analysed strains, while 30% was linked to a less aggressive type.
> 
> The prevalence of the more aggressive virus decreased after early January 2020, they said.


----------



## extra dry (Mar 4, 2020)

Properly on 5th gen right now in states, 3 days away from weekend


----------



## Wilf (Mar 4, 2020)

Italy claim now rolled back to 'considering' closing schools and unis':








						Italian educational institutions close as Covid-19 deaths pass 100 – as it happened
					

Outbreak continues to spread with Italians in India testing positive. This blog is closed




					www.theguardian.com
				




I don't think we  are there yet, but at some point different European states are going to copy their neighbours on things like this. Not so much an evidence thing as a politics-risk-scared to do nothing thing.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 4, 2020)

> *UK confirmed coronavirus cases jump by 34*
> The number of coronavirus cases in the UK has jumped by 34 in a day, taking the total number of confirmed cases to 85.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 4, 2020)

No idea how many of those will be the impact of beginning testing patients in intensive care (rather than focusing solely on travel-related cases).

Ah - eta...



> *UK confirmed coronavirus cases jump by 34*
> The number of coronavirus cases in the UK has jumped by 34 in a day, taking the total number of confirmed cases to 85.
> The Department for Health said that the figures include 2 patients in England.
> The department added in a statement: “29 patients were diagnosed who had recently travelled from recognised countries or from recognised clusters which were under investigation.”
> ...



Plus...



> Britain’s Department of Health added that it will no longer be tweeting information on the location of each new case from today, due to the number of new cases.
> 
> “Instead, this information will be released centrally in a consolidated format online, once a week. We are working on this now and plan to share on Friday.”


----------



## rookwood (Mar 4, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> No idea how many of those will be the impact of beginning testing patients in intensive care (rather than focusing solely on travel-related cases).
> 
> Ah - eta...
> 
> ...



I’m assuming people have considered that this may reflect that there is significant community transmission in a particular area and the government is seeking to avoid panic, which given my prior criticisms of their comms strategy I should add may actually be a sensible precaution at this point...though having said that a quick look at the replies below the tweet implies otherwise.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 4, 2020)

rookwood said:


> I’m assuming people have considered that this may reflect that there is significant community transmission in a particular area and the government is seeking to avoid panic, which given my prior criticisms of their comms strategy I should add may actually be a sensible precaution at this point.



Oh, I'm totally assuming it's to avoid spreading panic, too - although it could just as well be that that's down to the spread being _wider_, I guess?
Either way, they're not telling - but it's ridiculous to pretend that 35 extra cases (which I'm not at all surprised to hear about, fwiw) becomes too much work to list - and I don't think that _that_ helps, in itself, cos it feels like one of those times where a lack of information can do as much damage, in terms of panic, as open sharing of info might.


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 4, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Oh, I'm totally assuming it's to avoid spreading panic, too - although it could just as well be that that's down to the spread being _wider_, I guess?
> Either way, they're not telling - but it's ridiculous to pretend that 35 extra cases (which I'm not at all surprised to hear about, fwiw) becomes too much work to list - and I don't think that _that_ helps, in itself, cos it feels like one of those times where a lack of information can do as much damage, in terms of panic, as open sharing of info might.



Yep. The government saying "don't panic", when everyone has access to world news on this... just makes them look inefficient. And that will lead to further panic and anger.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 4, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Yep. The government saying "don't panic", when everyone has access to world news on this... just makes them look inefficient. And that will lead to further panic and anger.



They're not even saying that (out loud) either - they're literally saying that 35 new cases is such a huge surge (lol) that it makes it too difficult for them to list locations, which is obviously utter bullshit - so then you have people reading all sorts into that.
It's also not very reassuring, even if you took it as it was written - omg, we can't keep up!

There was a poll posted the other day - here, I think - 97% of the UK population have heard about coronavirus - y'know, you can't just put it back in the box.

Out of interest, what have other countries been doing in terms of reporting the spread? Has this been _a thing_ elsewhere?


----------



## Baronage-Phase (Mar 4, 2020)

Over here they announced a second person in the east of the country had been diagnosed. She had travelled from Italy. They just say that they are trying to track down anyone who might have been in close proximity with her...just like the first case. 

Varadkar keeps going on about not banning parades. Like as if st patricks day parades are something we all feckin want. 
We could all do withour that crap for a year. Its only for the tourists anyway. I suspect the gov is only interested in not losing business and money. And are doing a balancing act.
...with the nation's health literally in the balance

Then you've got Mary Lou at home with her kid who was in the school that had to ckose for 2 weeks because the first case attends there. 

No fucking government. 
Nobody making decisions. 
Ah sure it'll be alright attitude...and sure if a few thousand die well sure what can we do? 
Wankers.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 4, 2020)

Some great examples of how shit the entire profession of journalism is on this thread.


----------



## rookwood (Mar 4, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> They're not even saying that (out loud) either - they're literally saying that 35 new cases is such a huge surge (lol) that it makes it too difficult for them to list locations, which is obviously utter bullshit - so then you have people reading all sorts into that.
> It's also not very reassuring, even if you took it as it was written - omg, we can't keep up!
> 
> There was a poll posted the other day - here, I think - 97% of the UK population have heard about coronavirus - y'know, you can't just put it back in the box.
> ...



Yeah, on reflection there is no putting this one back in the box. Have had a look at some of the comments on it and people are reacting pretty strongly.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 4, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> Some great examples of how shit the entire profession of journalism is on this thread.



Yeah, that Dublin Live one is appalling - the _shocker_ headline doesn't relate to the content in _any way_.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 4, 2020)

sihhi said:


> kalidarkone Try to explain the pace of cases will be rapid and without training for staff on where the green zone and red zone is in a hospital things will get worse even quicker
> 
> Here's yesterday's Washington Post article on Italy:
> ..
> Italy within two weeks is already calling up student nurses


Yes, I heard an Italian doctor on the radio basically saying take action now, don't wait until it is too late!


----------



## weltweit (Mar 4, 2020)

Found an interesting web site today:









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 129,471,257 Cases and 2,828,154 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				




It isn't only about coronavirus, there are also stats on all sorts of things.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 4, 2020)

Wilf said:


> Italy claim now rolled back to 'considering' closing schools and unis':
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It has an evidence basis from China & Vietnam this time around plus the Spanish Flu epidemic.

It needs efforts to manage it of course. I asked about this in China and was told where a family has both parents involved in essential work e.g. police and nurse couple others usually neighbours in some block look after children.

Doing nothing or watching and waiting can not be any option for a civilised society.


----------



## baldrick (Mar 4, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Out of interest, what have other countries been doing in terms of reporting the spread? Has this been _a thing_ elsewhere?


I saw this morning on Twitter a great visualisation & map of the current situation in South Korea. I've just had a look through my feed and can't see it but I'll keep looking. I very much had the impression it was an official government source, however I know there are a lot of people in South Korea making apps that track it so it might have been one of those. Surprise surprise the location of cases and so on is public information and updated daily. I really don't know what the DoH are expecting to achieve with their stance.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 4, 2020)

Lupa said:


> Been stocking up on loo roll for the past 3 months...since Brexit shit. Most loo roll is imported here.
> Currently have 60 rolls.



I asked the gf for an update on Tesco’s loo roll stock - she says there’s no sign of any shortages.


----------



## Jennastan (Mar 4, 2020)

People taking precautions on the transports.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 4, 2020)

Jennastan said:


> People taking precautions on the transports.



There's a specific thread for these sort of images, away from this serious thread.









						Coronavirus meme/panic/fear mongering general thread
					

The other thread in p&p is serious and has been attracting more attention lately, so this thread is for anything trivial, funny, conspiracy bull, etc  Let's start with the people trying to cash in on the outbreak     :facepalm:




					www.urban75.net


----------



## D'wards (Mar 4, 2020)

My mum and stepdad going next week to Rome.
He runs a one man printer supply business. If they are quarantined the business will go under.
Should they go?


----------



## Tankus (Mar 4, 2020)

Isn't that the point in the Us...10 dead on current mortality rates  means there may be a 1000- 1500 running around shedding untested 

I cant understand why they are charging for tests in the USa for the uninsured 

Just seen some Aussie documentaries on life in China in the lockdown zone  One was four corners 
Holy shit...doors to apartment blocks being welded locked , corpse's being picked up on the streets ...medical staff having full on breakdowns.


----------



## elbows (Mar 4, 2020)

D'wards said:


> My mum and stepdad going next week to Rome.
> He runs a one man printer supply business. If they are quarantined the business will go under.
> Should they go?



I often shy away from answering that sort of question.

However, when its about a country that is closing all schools, playing sports behind closed doors, and whose PM has said ‘Our hospitals, despite their efficiency, risk being overwhelmed, we have a problem with intensive-care units’ then perhaps I should just come out and say that they should have a very serious think about the likely picture there in the weeks ahead, and here too. I would only go myself if I was the sort of person who would find holidaying in a war zone to be an interesting experience.

(source of quote Schools and universities in Italy to close over coronavirus spread )


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 4, 2020)

D'wards said:


> My mum and stepdad going next week to Rome.
> He runs a one man printer supply business. If they are quarantined the business will go under.
> Should they go?



No.


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Mar 4, 2020)

Tankus said:


> Isn't that the point in the Us...10 dead on current mortality rates  means there may be a 1000- 1500 running around shedding untested
> 
> I cant understand why they are charging for tests in the USa for the uninsured


There will be thousands if not tens of thousands infected at the moment in the US, and it will escalate dramatically. The health system as it is there is very bad at dealing with, well, basically anything, without explicit governmental powers being invoked, and signs point to them not being, for political reasons.

The problem is that while "letting poor people die" is a practical if evil mechanism of rationing healthcare in many cases, when it comes to infectious diseases it doesn't work so well.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 4, 2020)

Tankus said:


> Isn't that the point in the Us...10 dead on current mortality rates  means there may be a 1000- 1500 running around shedding untested
> 
> I cant understand why they are charging for tests in the USa for the uninsured
> 
> ...



Have you got a link to the documentaries.


----------



## D'wards (Mar 4, 2020)

elbows said:


> I often shy away from answering that sort of question.
> 
> However, when its about a country that is closing all schools, playing sports behind closed doors, and whose PM has said ‘Our hospitals, despite their efficiency, risk being overwhelmed, we have a problem with intensive-care units’ then perhaps I should just come out and say that they should have a very serious think about the likely picture there in the weeks ahead, and here too. I would only go myself if I was the sort of person who would find holidaying in a war zone to be an interesting experience.
> 
> (source of quote Schools and universities in Italy to close over coronavirus spread )


Just spoken to her. They've decided not to go, which is a shame but it's for the best we all think. 
No refunds though😔


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Mar 4, 2020)

I was wondering about the effect on UK politics this afternoon and tbh I'm not sure that there will be one.

We are already in a state where the NHS is pretty broken and, despite a relatively mild winter up until now, has been unable to cope - and it gets worse every year and will be worse next year. It's been fucked for years. Yet people still voted Tory. In the event of serious effects from a new virus, ITUs will be completely overloaded, but how much difference will that make to how people vote in five years' time? The panic isn't going to last forever - it will reduce and/or become a new general pandemic which people treat as "just one of those things".


----------



## Supine (Mar 4, 2020)

Lots of caveats around this but a pharma company have shipped the first batch of a vaccine against covid for use in human trials. 

Most pharma developments fail along the way but it's bloody impressive to get something to this stage so quickly. Lots more options are following in its tracks. 





__





						Redirecting
					





					time-com.cdn.ampproject.org


----------



## elbows (Mar 4, 2020)

FridgeMagnet said:


> I was wondering about the effect on UK politics this afternoon and tbh I'm not sure that there will be one.
> 
> We are already in a state where the NHS is pretty broken and, despite a relatively mild winter up until now, has been unable to cope - and it gets worse every year and will be worse next year. It's been fucked for years. Yet people still voted Tory. In the event of serious effects from a new virus, ITUs will be completely overloaded, but how much difference will that make to how people vote in five years' time? The panic isn't going to last forever - it will reduce and/or become a new general pandemic which people treat as "just one of those things".



Alternatively, it could be a large enough event that it changes those who have lived through it.

This pandemic has that potential I think, but whether that potential will be fully realised its still a bit too early for me to say. And it can be hard to predict the psychological consequences of even dramatic pandemics, the 1918 one is often referenced in modern times due to the death rate, but in other ways it was considered 'the forgotten pandemic'. I havent explored this much yet, it might have something to do with not appearing as much in the literature of some countries as people would have expected, and say compared to the pandemic of 1889.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 4, 2020)

D'wards said:


> Just spoken to her. They've decided not to go, which is a shame but it's for the best we all think.
> No refunds though😔



Yes good decision I'd say.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 4, 2020)

D'wards said:


> My mum and stepdad going next week to Rome.
> He runs a one man printer supply business. If they are quarantined the business will go under.
> Should they go?


Up to them. 
Personally I wouldn't go at the moment no.


----------



## Jennastan (Mar 4, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> There's a specific thread for these sort of images, away from this serious thread.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


i thought they were serious - people can't get proper PPE and improvise. The worry is real.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 4, 2020)

D'wards said:


> Just spoken to her. They've decided not to go, which is a shame but it's for the best we all think.
> No refunds though😔



A small price to pay compared to what could happen.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 4, 2020)

FridgeMagnet said:


> I was wondering about the effect on UK politics this afternoon and tbh I'm not sure that there will be one.
> 
> We are already in a state where the NHS is pretty broken and, despite a relatively mild winter up until now, has been unable to cope - and it gets worse every year and will be worse next year. It's been fucked for years. Yet people still voted Tory. In the event of serious effects from a new virus, ITUs will be completely overloaded, but how much difference will that make to how people vote in five years' time? The panic isn't going to last forever - it will reduce and/or become a new general pandemic which people treat as "just one of those things".



I think the manner of the disease and deaths will cast impressions 




from Iran

They will say we didn't know but they have had lessons China, Japan, Korea, Iran, Italy, France pointing the danger of inaction.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 4, 2020)

Here's a good graph showing the effects of non-pharmaceutical measures and social distancing on all respiratory infections:

It shows path lab results for viruses in Hong Kong hospitals (not COVID tests).
The main influenza strain red and the main cold virus just drop close to zero (w/e 23 Feb) not for want of tests carried out but because of social distancing (everyone wearing masks, deliveries outside houses no opening doors, no restaurants or parties, telework, staggered travelling to work and hours of work, absolutely no mass gatherings, 14 day police enforced geo-ID quarantine from the mainland)







Almost identical thing happened with SARS in 2003 in Singapore and Hong Kong coughs and sneezes also disappeared - because of this distancing.

If there's not enough social distancing COVID will spread very quickly and overpower health resources here.


----------



## elbows (Mar 4, 2020)




----------



## Part-timah (Mar 4, 2020)

Another study finds a higher rate of infection in children: Community Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2, Shenzhen, China, 2020


----------



## elbows (Mar 4, 2020)

Even without the olympics I didnt expect the data from Japan to be very good.



> The chief of South Korea’s National Health Insurance Service described the Japanese government’s handling of the novel coronavirus crisis as “political,” with the upcoming Tokyo Olympics at stake.
> 
> Kim Yong-ik, president of the NHIS, said the number of infections in the neighboring country could be much higher than reported and that Japan is “not testing enough.”
> 
> ...







__





						Seoul official calls Japan’s reaction to coronavirus ‘political’
					

The chief of South Korea’s National Health Insurance Service described the Japanese government’s handling of the novel coronavirus crisis as “political,” with the upcoming Tokyo Olympics at stake.  　 Kim Yong-ik, president of the NHIS, said the number of infections in the neighboring country...



					www.koreaherald.com


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 5, 2020)

Not sure  if we’ve had this yet but theres a report of a more transmissible variety of Coronavirus thats been detected: The coronavirus could be mutating as scientists claim to have identified a more aggressive strain


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 5, 2020)




----------



## scifisam (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> There are also consequences of acting early in terms of what percentage of the population will think its an insane overreaction, a disgrace that must be opposed etc.
> 
> If you dont try to do it till the number of cases and deaths starts to build significantly then you probably bypass a bunch of that unhelpful 'fuss over nothing' response from sections of the population.



Looking at a couple of threads elsewhere (not on Urban) where people are really going OTT, acting as if the worst case scenario is the only scenario, what also concerns me is the boy who cried wolf factor. 

If schools, etc, were shut down for weeks, and the numbers of infected were still really low even given the effects of quarantine (which would make the numbers lower, of course), then it would make it more difficult for people to take a future more deadly virus seriously. They'd remember Grandad suffering because his carer couldn't come round to help him, and neither could his kids because they were stuck at home with their kids who were off school, and they'd remember Uncle Jack losing his home because his zero-hours job laid him off, stuff like that, but they wouldn't remember anyone they knew personally being ill. So when the next virus and quarantine came around, they'd say fuck that.


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Not sure  if we’ve had this yet but theres a report of a more transmissible variety of Coronavirus thats been detected: The coronavirus could be mutating as scientists claim to have identified a more aggressive strain



Thats what the criticism I linked to a few posts ago was about.            #2,862


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

scifisam said:


> Looking at a couple of threads elsewhere (not on Urban) where people are really going OTT, acting as if the worst case scenario is the only scenario, what also concerns me is the boy who cried wolf factor.
> 
> If schools, etc, were shut down for weeks, and the numbers of infected were still really low even given the effects of quarantine (which would make the numbers lower, of course), then it would make it more difficult for people to take a future more deadly virus seriously. They'd remember Grandad suffering because his carer couldn't come round to help him, and neither could his kids because they were stuck at home with their kids who were off school, and they'd remember Uncle Jack losing his home because his zero-hours job laid him off, stuff like that, but they wouldn't remember anyone they knew personally being ill. So when the next virus and quarantine came around, they'd say fuck that.



This virus seems quite sufficiently bad that these concerns are rather far down my list of things to worry about. I do not rule out the possibility of it rising up the list, but under those circumstances I would be quite delighted because it would mean things had panned out much better than I could bring myself to hope for right now.

Although the memories of previous pandemics and how they were responded to probably have some impact on reactions to the next one, I suspect that the main driver of peoples reactions is the detail and impact of the outbreak that is occurring at the time. The 2009 flu pandemic turned out to be exceptionally mild in terms of number of deaths, and it probably did have a negative impact in terms of planning and funding for the next one, but I dont think it has blinded people at large to the risks posed by this covid outbreak. Granted people did not have to deal with extreme containment measures in 2009, so any feelings that the whole thing was an overreaction have limited consequences to feed on.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> This virus seems quite sufficiently bad that these concerns are rather far down my list of things to worry about. I do not rule out the possibility of it rising up the list, but under those circumstances I would be quite delighted because it would mean things had panned out much better than I could bring myself to hope for right now.
> 
> Although the memories of previous pandemics and how they were responded to probably have some impact on reactions to the next one, I suspect that the main driver of peoples reactions is the detail and impact of the outbreak that is occurring at the time. The 2009 flu pandemic turned out to be exceptionally mild in terms of number of deaths, and it probably did have a negative impact in terms of planning and funding for the next one, but I dont think it has blinded people at large to the risks posed by this covid outbreak. *Granted people did not have to deal with extreme containment measures in 2009, so any feelings that the whole thing was an overreaction have limited consequences to feed on.*



That's the key thing though - lots of people are asking for school shutdowns and the like, and the repercussions of that could easily be worse than this pandemic. I don't just mean economically, though that can lead to deaths too, I mean people dying from lack of care due to their carers being forced to stay home.

And I'm in a high risk group, so I'm not being I'm OK jack, as I've seen people say to other people who think that perhaps we shouldn't go to panic measures just yet. People in high risk groups are more at risk of coronavirus, but they're also more at risk of dying due to lack of access to care.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 5, 2020)

Parliament may shit for 5 months.









						Parliament could be shut for months to tackle coronavirus — The Times and The Sunday Times
					

Parliament may be suspended for five months to prevent MPs from spreading coronavirus across the country. Britain edged closer to an epidemic yesterday with the biggest daily jump in cases leaving 87 people confirmed as infected. Three of the 36 new cases were intensive care patients who had not...




					apple.news


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 5, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Parliament may shit for 5 months.



Top typo error.


----------



## bimble (Mar 5, 2020)

Interesting thread here on how completely fucked the US response is, just minimising and all out lying to people.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 5, 2020)

So FlyBe have finally collapsed, partially blaming the coronavirus impact on bookings.


----------



## LDC (Mar 5, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> So FlyBe have finally collapsed, partially blaming the coronavirus impact on bookings.



Separate thread for it somewhere.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 5, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Found an interesting web site today:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Good link that. I liked the country-specific section towards the end, with descriptive text about the situation in each territory. Quoting below the Italy update, I’m wondering why is the death rate already so high? 28% of cases with an outcome were deaths - that’s way higher than in China.  Overall case numbers are not yet high enough that lack of hospital capacity should be a factor, or is it already, in which case how fucked are we for later this year when you’ll have no chance of an ITU bed?



> 587 new cases and 28 new deaths in Italy. Total: 3,089 and 107 deaths
> Among the 2,706 active cases, 1,344 (50%) are hospitalized, 295 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care.
> *Among the 383 closed cases, 276 (72%) have recovered, 107 (28%) have died.*


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 5, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Good link that. I liked the country-specific section towards the end, with descriptive text about the situation in each territory. Quoting below the Italy update, I’m wondering why is the death rate already so high? 28% of cases with an outcome were deaths - that’s way higher than in China.  Overall case numbers are not yet high enough that lack of hospital capacity should be a factor, or is it already, in which case how fucked are we for later this year when you’ll have no chance of an ITU bed?



The 28% is only amongst the 383 closed cases, there's another 2706 active cases, making a total of 3089 known/reported cases, all the figures I've seen from China are percentage of deaths amongst total known/reported cases, so a death rate of 3.5% is a better comparison to China.

At a guess that will drop as more mild cases are detected, the last figures I read on China had the death rate around 2.5-3% in Wuhan/Hubei province, but 'only' 0.5% in the rest of the country.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 5, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I’m wondering why is the death rate already so high? 28% of cases with an outcome were deaths - that’s way higher than in China.


Totally dependent on the country's strategy towards testing. If you decide to test everyone, you'll identify a lot more of the milder cases, and your mortality rate will be lower.


----------



## SpineyNorman (Mar 5, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Parliament may shit for 5 months.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It's been shit for a lot longer than that. 

This is my favourite marty1 post ever though


----------



## LDC (Mar 5, 2020)

I work in acute medicine and was in work yesterday for the first time in 2 weeks. The change in attitude was palpable. I had a few conversations with doctors who were seriously worried about how it might go, largely around the need for ICU beds. Most seemed to be expecting a huge explosion in cases soon, and the corresponding collapse of much of our ability to provide the same level of healthcare that we do now. Apparently the hospital hadn't really been doing much until yesterday when it had a meeting that brought up how to prioritize care if things go to shit. Some not very nice decisions will have to be made.

As an aside we have fuck all protective gear still.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 5, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Apparently the hospital hadn't really been doing much until yesterday when it had a meeting that brought up how to prioritize care if things go to shit.


Realistically, what can it do? Hospitals can't magic extra beds and staff out of thin air - aside from implementing much more ruthless triage, there can't be that many options open to them.


----------



## LDC (Mar 5, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> Realistically, what can it do? Hospitals can't magic extra beds and staff out of thin air - aside from implementing much more ruthless triage, there can't be that many options open to them.



Supply protective equipment. Brief and reassure the staff. Put posters up for patients. Update the public and internal websites with the latest info. Start clearing beds as much as possible. All sorts of stuff. Anyway, working out what to do isn't my fucking job, but I hope it is someone's, but nothing I've seen so far has made me think they're ready for this.


----------



## Jeff Robinson (Mar 5, 2020)

Trump voters are a bigger threat to humanity than coronavirus.


----------



## existentialist (Mar 5, 2020)

Jeff Robinson said:


> Trump voters are a bigger threat to humanity than coronavirus.


Slightly less immediate, perhaps. I think I am fairly safe from the prospect of particles of Trump voter being breathed into my lungs, for example.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

scifisam said:


> That's the key thing though - lots of people are asking for school shutdowns and the like, and the repercussions of that could easily be worse than this pandemic. I don't just mean economically, though that can lead to deaths too, I mean people dying from lack of care due to their carers being forced to stay home.
> 
> And I'm in a high risk group, so I'm not being I'm OK jack, as I've seen people say to other people who think that perhaps we shouldn't go to panic measures just yet. People in high risk groups are more at risk of coronavirus, but they're also more at risk of dying due to lack of access to care.



Dan U spring-peeper

How can a school shutdown be worse than a pandemic if carers' children are looked after someone else who will also be at home for a period of 2-3 weeks?
3 and a half million were evacuated in the war. 
The longer you delay it the longer people won't want to take others in for fear of their being infected.
Come on, urge some proactive action plus mitigation.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

Wuhan  recovered 36 year old died March 2 









						‘Recovered’ Covid-19 patient dies as China reports more repeat cases
					

A 36-year-old man has died in Wuhan from respiratory failure days after being discharged from hospital.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

scifisam said:


> That's the key thing though - lots of people are asking for school shutdowns and the like, and the repercussions of that could easily be worse than this pandemic. I don't just mean economically, though that can lead to deaths too, I mean people dying from lack of care due to their carers being forced to stay home.
> 
> And I'm in a high risk group, so I'm not being I'm OK jack, as I've seen people say to other people who think that perhaps we shouldn't go to panic measures just yet. People in high risk groups are more at risk of coronavirus, but they're also more at risk of dying due to lack of access to care.



Well yes, I'm one of the people who is in two minds about the timing of big measures, I would not want to start them too early, or too late. And my attitude as to when 'too late' would be is different from some other posters, because I do not picture these measures as being designed to eradicate the disease utterly from this country, or prevent all sizeable outbreaks, but to make a large difference to the number of cases and how intensely they happen.

I do have a problem with the word panic in this context though. I know it is used as shorthand at times like this, but its still a loaded term that implies overreaction or counterproductive behaviour. School closures are nothing of the sort, they are a vital tool.


----------



## andysays (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> Well yes, I'm one of the people who is in two minds about the timing of big measures, I would not want to start them too early, or too late. And my attitude as to when 'too late' would be is different from some other posters, because I do not picture these measures as being designed to eradicate the disease utterly from this country, or prevent all sizeable outbreaks, but to make a large difference to the number of cases and how intensely they happen.
> 
> I do have a problem with the word panic in this context though. I know it is used as shorthand at times like this, but its still a loaded term that implies overreaction or counterproductive behaviour. School closures are nothing of the sort, they are a vital tool.


It doesn't have to be an all or nothing thing though.

Obviously there's a need to keep essential services going, so a total lockdown would be an unnecessary over reaction, but there could and IMO should be some controls and limiting of nonessential travel etc to attempt to slow down rate of transmission.


----------



## phillm (Mar 5, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Supply protective equipment. Brief and reassure the staff. Put posters up for patients. Update the website with the latest info. Start clearing beds as much as possible. All sorts of stuff. Anyway, working out what to do isn't my fucking job, but I hope it is someone's, but nothing I've seen so far has made me think they're ready for this.



You would have thought all these 30k civil servants working on Brexit could be put straight away onto coronavirus preparedness teams. A real leader would say given the enormous and immediate threat that we are facing then we have asked the EU to suspend Brexit until further notice. but no....what a shitstorm of shit.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 5, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Good news
> 
> I've also been feeling unwell the past few days so know what you've been going through. My symptoms aren't Covid-like (yet?  ) but I'm still mildly concerned.
> 
> Health anxiety is shit


I have been concerned. Anxiety about it is really shit.


----------



## rookwood (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> Well yes, I'm one of the people who is in two minds about the timing of big measures, I would not want to start them too early, or too late. And my attitude as to when 'too late' would be is different from some other posters, because I do not picture these measures as being designed to eradicate the disease utterly from this country, or prevent all sizeable outbreaks, but to make a large difference to the number of cases and how intensely they happen.
> 
> I do have a problem with the word panic in this context though. I know it is used as shorthand at times like this, but its still a loaded term that implies overreaction or counterproductive behaviour. School closures are nothing of the sort, they are a vital tool.



Yes, there is a bit of Millennium Bug-ism about the delay measures. By which I mean that when that came to nothing, everyone said it was a waste of time spending time and money mitigating it, ignoring the potential causal relationship between the mitigation and the fact it came to nothing.

With school closures, if they work and significantly delay spread, you can expect the same responses.


----------



## phillm (Mar 5, 2020)

Professor Chris Whitty said that, even for high-risk age groups, catching coronavirus did not mean you would be “a goner”.
He said that firstly “we intend to do what we can to make sure that they are the group that is least affected, as far as we can”.
He added: “Even in the most vulnerable, oldest groups, in the very stressed health service which Hubei was at the point when most of the data come out of, the great majority of people who caught this virus – and not everybody will – survived it, the great majority, over 90 per cent. 
“So, I think it’s easy to get a perception that if you are older and you get this virus then you’re a goner – absolutely not, the great majority of people will recover from this virus, even if they are in their 80s.”


----------



## rookwood (Mar 5, 2020)

phillm said:


> Professor Chris Whitty said that, even for high-risk age groups, catching coronavirus did not mean you would be “a goner”.
> He said that firstly “we intend to do what we can to make sure that they are the group that is least affected, as far as we can”.
> He added: “Even in the most vulnerable, oldest groups, in the very stressed health service which Hubei was at the point when most of the data come out of, the great majority of people who caught this virus – and not everybody will – survived it, the great majority, over 90 per cent.
> “So, I think it’s easy to get a perception that if you are older and you get this virus then you’re a goner – absolutely not, the great majority of people will recover from this virus, even if they are in their 80s.”



He is of course absolutely spot on, but as he also knows science communication is often about perceptions rather than realities of risk. People will be worried all the same; you wouldn't get on a rollercoaster with a 90% chance of survival, and agency plays a key role in how we perceive risk, i.e. there is a fundamental difference psychologically between an elective risk (getting on the rollercoaster) and a non-elective one (you don't choose to get infected). That's what partly drives the fear.


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

andysays said:


> It doesn't have to be an all or nothing thing though.
> 
> Obviously there's a need to keep essential services going, so a total lockdown would be an unnecessary over reaction, but there could and IMO should be some controls and limiting of nonessential travel etc to attempt to slow down rate of transmission.



I suppose we are already at the point where the first stage of limiting has begun - this is a voluntary stage where you dont actually have to impose any controls, rather peoples attitude towards the virus and it 'feeling closer to home' starts to affect their behaviour in ways that start to have some impact on transmission.

And when it comes to things like events being cancelled, some of that will probably be driven not by outright bans and government edict, but by companies etc doing risk assessments and scrapping stuff of their own accord, as we have already started to see.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> And when it comes to things like events being cancelled, some of that will probably be driven not by outright bans and government edict, but by companies etc doing risk assessments and scrapping stuff of their own accord, as we have already started to see.



Anyone organizing an event who cannot afford to not go ahead with it because they are relying on the event income to sustain themselves will almost certainly not cancel it unless they are forced to do so by government.


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

Flavour said:


> Anyone organizing an event who cannot afford to not go ahead with it because they are relying on the event income to sustain themselves will almost certainly not cancel it unless they are forced to do so by government.



Yeah, I should have said 'at the earlier stages' and I was only talking about some events. I expect government to impose restrictions too, I'm just on about stuff that gets cancelled before then.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

andysays said:


> It doesn't have to be an all or nothing thing though.
> 
> Obviously there's a need to keep essential services going, so a total lockdown would be an unnecessary over reaction, but there could and IMO should be some controls and limiting of nonessential travel etc to attempt to slow down rate of transmission.



I quite agree instead we have football continuing all over, Cheltenham Festival, Six Nations, large concerts etc etc. This has to be the first step.

I urge those thinking about people in need of care to consider the normal-then-woosh-hospitals-overwhelmed' no space or time or anything for elderly who've had a fall or wounds that need dressing or anything.

We have to take action in advance, Italy is on course to become Iran and Britain is on course to become Italy. 
Someone made the point that the effects on the health service come with a lag of 4 weeks - 1/2 week incubation, 1 week symptoms, 1 week oxygen then bam needing ICU.

Add the fact that exponential growth 9>27>81>... means the number of cases the following week will be even more where is the space? 

The Canadian WHO respiratory doctor who went to Wuhan described it as "the Wayne Gretzky of viruses — people didn’t think it was big enough or fast enough to have the impact it does”
I am inclined to trust him.

There was a report today saying Australia wasn't planning for community transmission until 6 weeks from now, the British government has figures saying there will be a peak in May/June but how can this be predicted?


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

I would not assume a lag of 4 weeks as a rule. Many cases had shorter incubation periods, for example, and the rate at which peoples health declines to critical also varies considerably.

Predictions of timing are based on models. They might be off by quite a lot though, and also the absolute peak of first epidemic wave can be quite some time after outbreaks reach notable size.

Unless we have been very lucky with the extent of seeding to this country from China in January, I dont think the government hopes of remaining in broadly the same phase for the whole of this month will be sustained. And even then, there has clearly been a lot of seeding from Italy more recently.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> Yeah, I should have said 'at the earlier stages' and I was only talking about some events. I expect government to impose restrictions too, I'm just on about stuff that gets cancelled before then.



In Britain hardly anything a Bond premier and a trade meeting. Everything relies on government advice and insurance.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> I would not assume a lag of 4 weeks as a rule. Many cases had shorter incubation periods, for example, and the rate at which peoples health declines to critical also varies considerably.
> 
> Predictions of timing are based on models. They might be off by quite a lot though, and also the absolute peak of first epidemic wave can be quite some time after outbreaks reach notable size.
> 
> Unless we have been very lucky with the extent of seeding to this country from China in January, I dont think the government hopes of remaining in broadly the same phase for the whole of this month will be sustained. And even then, there has clearly been a lot of seeding from Italy more recently.



Australia was about 6 weeks off, Britain thus 3 weeks off. Bad news for Personal Protective Equipment.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 5, 2020)

rookwood said:


> Yes, there is a bit of Millennium Bug-ism about the delay measures. By which I mean that when that came to nothing, everyone said it was a waste of time spending time and money mitigating it, ignoring the potential causal relationship between the mitigation and the fact it came to nothing.
> 
> With school closures, if they work and significantly delay spread, you can expect the same responses.


It's like reverse Y2K.

Italy and South Korea spent fuck all on Y2K problems and escape relatively unharmed.

Now they're the ones who are doing the most testing and the ones who are facing the biggest outbreaks.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 5, 2020)

With this kind of risk management scenario, get  it right and you won’t get any acknowledgment if it is needed, but if it isn’t eventually needed, expect to be bollocked. I sidestep this kind of activity outside my personal life


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 5, 2020)




----------



## andysays (Mar 5, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I quite agree instead we have football continuing all over, Cheltenham Festival, Six Nations, large concerts etc etc. This has to be the first step.
> 
> I urge those thinking about people in need of care to consider the normal-then-woosh-hospitals-overwhelmed' no space or time or anything for elderly who've had a fall or wounds that need dressing or anything.
> 
> ...


The government starting to instruct organisers to cancel events seems to me to be a sensible step to take now, as much to demonstrate that this is a serious issue and that dealing with it will require some sacrifices to be made, in addition to the actual risks of transmission at such events


----------



## phillm (Mar 5, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

andysays said:


> The government starting to instruct organisers to cancel events seems to me to be a sensible step to take now, as much to demonstrate that this is a serious issue and that dealing with it will require some sacrifices to be made, in addition to the actual risks or transmission at such events



Soon, but I would not like to guess exactly when. Previous government pandemic plans seem to have been based off of European protocols, and I believe reaching 100 confirmed cases was a trigger for a new phase. Whether that is still in place this time I cannot say for sure, maybe they will be more nuanced about it, although the UK press were mentioning the 100 figure weeks ago so maybe that is still the threshold for a 'new phase'.

Actually as I write this I am now seeing headlines about UK new phase so I think I am already behind that curve. Im off to read the detail.


----------



## phillm (Mar 5, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> View attachment 200671


As bizarre as it looks it would prevent any heavier aerosols going her way from getting in her lungs or onto her face I would have thought and help to remind us not to touch our faces.  And unlike the masks that have disappeared, it is not beyond the ingenuity of most to knock something similar up. I would also add gloves to that look as well.


----------



## LDC (Mar 5, 2020)

It'd be good if people didn't clog this serious thread up with endless photos and memes of people doing stupid/vaguely amusing virus related things. There's a thread specifically for that.


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> Actually as I write this I am now seeing headlines about UK new phase so I think I am already behind that curve. Im off to read the detail.



Ah so its a more subtle narrative where we are described as currently being at an in-between phase. Formal declaration of new phase yet to come. 









						Coronavirus: UK moving towards 'delay' phase of virus plan as cases hit 115
					

Measures will be ramped up to slow the spread of coronavirus as the UK moves past the "contain" phase.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## 2hats (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> Ah so its a more subtle narrative where we are described as currently being at an in-between phase. Formal declaration of new phase yet to come.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Which phase of phase transition do they hope to be in?


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

I'll wait for the 2pm number before saying any more about that I think.

This looks like something I must read, havent had time just yet:

'The timing of one-shot interventions for epidemic control'



			https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/joelmiller/files/the_timing_of_one_off_interventions_for_epidemic_control.pdf


----------



## rookwood (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> Ah so its a more subtle narrative where we are described as currently being at an in-between phase. Formal declaration of new phase yet to come.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I think at least in part this is because they got their messaging wrong on Tuesday. They did a set piece, gave the strong implication Contain would last for a good while longer, and they have had to do a handbrake turn on messaging in the last 36 hours. So having outlined a Contain/Delay etc. phase pattern, they’re now massaging it not to freak everyone out/damage their own credibility. 

That’s not to say that medically/epidemiologically (and you are better placed to say) there can’t be ‘in-between phases’ (it would seem obvious there can be, these categories are in any event arbitrary to a point), just that message-wise they have got themselves into a difficult position here. 

They need to make a decision about sport in general to be honest, and Cheltenham in particular. They know that is going to be a game-changer message-wise no doubt, but anyone who’s ever been to Cheltenham knows you can’t really be serious about ‘delay’ if you let events like that proceed. 134,000 people of many different nationalities using the train station, for one thing.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 5, 2020)

I've read hardly anything with regard to official and governmental documentation (so should probably shut up...) but there's also how things 'feel'.  Everything should be about overall numbers, transmission rates, the extent of community transmission, clusters and the rest, but probably won't be. In terms of how it _feels_, getting beyond 100 ramps up government anxieties about getting blamed for inaction, but I'd guess something nearer 200 in, say, 30 separate locations takes us to the 'close everything down' phase.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 5, 2020)

what does "everything" mean when you say "close everything down"? and are you prepared to imagine the consequences of closing "everything" down for say, three months?


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

Flavour said:


> what does "everything" mean when you say "close everything down"? and are you prepared to imagine the consequences of closing "everything" down for say, three months?



Anecdotal but Wuhan has had it for about half that time and my friend with parents still essentially cooped up in their apartment there think it was the right thing to do thus far.


----------



## phillm (Mar 5, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Anecdotal but Wuhan has had it for about half that time and my friend with parents still essentially cooped up in their apartment there think it was the right thing to do thus far.


With Italy currently showing a mortality rate of 3.5% it is the most rational and logical thing to do.


----------



## Bilbo (Mar 5, 2020)

i think they need security guards at the isles in supermarkets that sell hand sanitizes and toilet roll i was in my earlier and the hand sanitizes where all gone and toilet rolls nearly all sold out i don,t think it helps that it is 24 hours supermarket i think if this virus hangs about then the hours will change. Then on another note i saw on eBay some hand sanitizes going for up to £80 quid or more i hope eBay will take note of this and stop people making a profit from this virus... but i suppose business is business


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

The messages are all over the place. 
Here's White House scientific advisor: "Reassuringly, in South Korea, no one has died under 30.  This is reassuring to us."


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 5, 2020)

Bilbo said:


> i think they need security guards at the isles in supermarkets that sell hand sanitizes and toilet roll i was in my earlier and the hand sanitizes where all gone and toilet rolls nearly all sold out i don,t think it helps that it is 24 hours supermarket i think if this virus hangs about then the hours will change. Then on another note i saw on eBay some hand sanitizes going for up to £80 quid or more i hope eBay will take note of this and stop people making a profit from this virus... but i suppose business is business


It should be illegal.

Karma will sort them out if shit goes really bad, though. I can't imagine toilet roll gouging cunts can protect themselves without a police force to back them up.


----------



## D'wards (Mar 5, 2020)

I'm pretty sure the Euros and Olympics will be cancelled/postponed.

Quite upset about that, I well look forward to these month long sports festivals


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> It should be illegal.
> 
> Karma will sort them out if shit goes really bad, though. I can't imagine toilet roll gouging cunts can protect themselves without a police force to back them up.











						COVID-19: sales and pricing practices during coronavirus outbreak
					

The CMA has been monitoring reports of changes to sales and pricing practices during the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.




					www.gov.uk
				






> The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) wants to ensure that traders do not exploit the current situation to take advantage of people.
> 
> It will consider any evidence that companies may have broken competition or consumer protection law, for example by charging excessive prices or making misleading claims about the efficacy of protective equipment. And it will take direct enforcement action in appropriate cases.
> 
> In addition, the CMA will assess whether it should advise Government to consider taking direct action to regulate prices.


----------



## rookwood (Mar 5, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> It should be illegal.
> 
> Karma will sort them out if shit goes really bad, though. I can't imagine toilet roll gouging cunts can protect themselves without a police force to back them up.



To be fair though I am just a fat bastard. I bought four packs of mini creme eggs in Iceland before and the checkout person blatantly thought I was stockpiling.

That‘s just to get me through the next two days


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

Quick escalation in India. All Delhi primary schools closed until 31 March.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 5, 2020)

Flavour said:


> what does "everything" mean when you say "close everything down"? and are you prepared to imagine the consequences of closing "everything" down for say, three months?


Loose talk/wording on my part really. I just meant get into line with the measures taken in Italy, something along the lines of shutting schools and universities along with major sports/ents events (plus a wider encouragement to work at home, protect the supply of certain items etc.).


----------



## LDC (Mar 5, 2020)

Couple of useful bits here, simple explanatory video of how it kills and an article covering some of the healthcare treatments.











						Management of COVID-19 patients admitted to stepdown or ICU
					

CONTENTS Rapid Reference 🚀 Initial tests to guide management Organ support Cardiovascular Respiratory Noninvasive respiratory support Invasive mechanical ventilation Infectious disease – antibiotics Renal Hematology Neurology Immunomodulation Steroid Tocilizumab Baricitinib Tofacitinib Things...




					emcrit.org


----------



## bimble (Mar 5, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Quick escalation in India. All Delhi primary schools closed until 31 March.


That’s a huge move. They’ve got fewer confirmed cases than UK and half of those Italian tourists I think.
Really interesting how different responses are.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> 2pm


Nope. They're currently massaging the figures and you'll get them at...._<does hand wavey gestures>_


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 5, 2020)

Stop being so negative- look at the upside






__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.co.uk


----------



## rookwood (Mar 5, 2020)

That strikes me as fairly staggering and very likely cherry-picked. Trumpian.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

Dan U and anyone else in adult care
Nursing home in Madrid. 10 residents infected. 1 member staff.
Working assumption is staff member is patient 0 of the cluster.

Korea death toll at 41, total cases 6,088.

The growth will not slow unless action is taken, including travel and mobility limitations in areas and shutdown or shift into virtual space of non-essential sectors education, entertainment, retail, finance, tourism, construction. The longer the delay the more severe the death rates and negative effects.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

rookwood said:


> View attachment 200699
> That strikes me as fairly staggering and very likely cherry-picked. Trumpian.



It's _mindblowing_ taking it on the chin would be allowing Britain to become a host of cities worse than Wuhan, with healthcare workers decimated after insufficient PEP production.


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

rookwood said:


> That strikes me as fairly staggering and very likely cherry-picked. Trumpian.



That sort of talk represents the natural position of Johnson and his ilk.

However in this case it sounds like that bit was a setup to juxtapose against a rather different sentiment expressed with the next thing he said. Lets see it in that context:



> One of the theories is perhaps you could take it in on the chin, take it all in one go and allow the disease to move through the population without really taking as many draconian measures. I think we need to strike a balance.
> 
> I think it would be better if we take all the measures that we can now just to stop the peak of the disease being as difficult for the NHS as it might. I think there are things we may be able to do.




From Guardian live politics updates page earlier, which also featured this:









						Brexit: Barnier says UK is refusing to commit to remaining signed up to ECHR as part of EU deal – as it happened
					

Rolling coverage of the day’s political developments as they happened, including the Commons health committee questioning Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer




					www.theguardian.com
				









And this:



> As the Spectator’s *James Forsyth *has pointed out, Johnson used to say that his hero was the mayor in the town features in the movie Jaws, because he kept the beaches open when he was under pressure to close them. (As Jeremy Vine wrote in a revealing article, Johnson was so fond of this argument he used it repeatedly.) Now (and, for anyone with an elderly relative, thankfully), Johnson seems to be adopting a different approach to risk.



I'm not really looking forward to the moment where people who dont fit the 'elderly' label die and cause an adjustment to the sentiment expressed in brackets near the end there. Well I mean obviously I think that sentiment needs adjusting, the bit I'm not looking forward to is the deaths and the more nuanced reality dawning on people.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 5, 2020)

rookwood said:


> View attachment 200699
> That strikes me as fairly staggering and very likely cherry-picked. Trumpian.


 

It’s one of the default disaster scenarios  that UKG have kept as default since the peak of the Cold War - I mentioned this earlier - this is the doing fuck all option and seeing what happens afterwards. These are the binary choices presented to politicians when we have no infrastructure designed to deal with specifics


----------



## editor (Mar 5, 2020)

Relax everyone!

Trump calls WHO's global death rate from coronavirus 'a false number'


----------



## rookwood (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> That sort of talk represents the natural position of Johnson and his ilk.
> 
> However in this case it sounds like that bit was a setup to juxtapose against a rather different sentiment expressed with the next thing he said. Lets see it in that context:
> 
> ...



Thanks for this. Given his track record I think his only concern is political fallout, so we’ll see how that shifts. Christ his hero was that prick in Jaws...


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 5, 2020)

sihhi said:


> The growth will not slow unless action is taken, including travel and mobility limitations in areas and shutdown or shift into virtual space of non-essential sectors education, entertainment, retail, finance, tourism, construction. The longer the delay the more severe the death rates and negative effects.



You keep posting this in almost all your posts, yet the various Chief Medical & Scientific Officers across the four nations of the UK disagree that this is the right time to take such measures, I have more faith in them than you.

Did you know that only 2 European countries banned all travel from China, the first was Italy, that worked so well, didn't it?


----------



## Jeremiah18.17 (Mar 5, 2020)

Wilf said:


> I've read hardly anything with regard to official and governmental documentation (so should probably shut up...) but there's also how things 'feel'.  Everything should be about overall numbers, transmission rates, the extent of community transmission, clusters and the rest, but probably won't be. In terms of how it _feels_, getting beyond 100 ramps up government anxieties about getting blamed for inaction, but I'd guess something nearer 200 in, say, 30 separate locations takes us to the 'close everything down' phase.


At current rate of increase, then, we may be at the “close things down stage” by Monday, if not before. 
☹️


----------



## Flavour (Mar 5, 2020)

With regards Italian mortality rate - I don't think it's really 3.5%, it's partly down to their being lots of people who have it with v mild symptoms without even realizing it, and also, the population is the 2nd oldest in the world so more susceptible


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 5, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Korea death toll at 41, total cases 6,088.



Mortality rate 0.67%


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 5, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Mortality rate 0.67%



On a par with China, outside of Hubei province, and with Chris Whitty's view that it will be below 1%.


----------



## Jeremiah18.17 (Mar 5, 2020)

This first person report out of China indicates that it will be very unlikely the Chinese state will not take  advantage of the virus to advance their total surveillance agenda......









						It’s like being in a science fiction film – my daily life in a locked-down Chinese city | Mark Bishop
					

Local government cars with loudspeakers pass by regularly now, issuing warnings and orders to obey the new restrictions, says university lecturer Mark Bishop




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 5, 2020)

I expect you will have seen but there has now been the first UK death from this infection. The victim apparently had underlying health conditions and caught the virus in the UK.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 5, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Dan U and anyone else in adult care
> Nursing home in Madrid. 10 residents infected. 1 member staff.
> Working assumption is staff member is patient 0 of the cluster.
> 
> ...



I think this quandary shows exactly why I am glad these aren't my decisions to make. None of this is easy


----------



## smmudge (Mar 5, 2020)

Our sainsburys has been hit, absolutely no toilet roll, no hand wash or anti-bacterial gel of any kind! Why toilet roll though??


----------



## Supine (Mar 5, 2020)

smmudge said:


> Our sainsburys has been hit, absolutely no toilet roll, no hand wash or anti-bacterial gel of any kind! Why toilet roll though??



14 days of isolation obviously!


----------



## smmudge (Mar 5, 2020)

Supine said:


> 14 days of isolation obviously!



But the spirits shelves were shocked full! I'm not sure people know how to do isolation.


----------



## miss direct (Mar 5, 2020)

So here in Turkey, we are led to believe that every single bordering country is affected, with 3,500 in Iran alone, and yet NOT A SINGLE CASE HERE. Whatever panic may be happening in the UK/elsewhere, it has to be better than this blind sheep nationalist crap that we're getting here.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 5, 2020)

Hope you're OK miss direct - sounds questionable as you say.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Did you know that only 2 European countries banned all travel from China, the first was Italy, that worked so well, didn't it?



This is wrong. The Czech Republic and Greece were before. 
Italy on 23 January suspended direct flights from Wuhan and but direct flights from the rest of China on 30 January. Indirect entries into Italy were not stopped.
It's suspected that either an Italian who returned or either Chinese tourists to the north were vectors.
Italy, like Britain, also failed to institute adequate isolation for those that did enter. 
For instance one of the cases is a professor who went to central Italy had no symptoms but did not self-isolate as per guidelines so has infected several students in King's College London.

More generally the point to be made is that _social distancing involves travel restrictions because unnecessary group travel is a site of social congregation and infection_ ie China banned all travel from Hubei and in Hubei, and it worked.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 5, 2020)

Incidentally, I am pretty sure sometime today I overheard something on the radio that there may now be two variants of the virus out there. 

Did anyone else hear that?


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Incidentally, I am pretty sure sometime today I overheard something on the radio that there may now be two variants of the virus out there.
> 
> Did anyone else hear that?



There was a paper that made this claim. Other experts didnt like the paper at all. The press all picked up on it and ran with it anyway, I dont think it was the main headline in UK papers today but it was there on a number of front pages in some capacity.

This thread so far has featured multiple people bringing up the first few press articles about it, me posting a link to criticism of the paper, and several people asking about it since. I expect people to keep asking about it. I hope someone other than me finds a nice way to answer them, because its going to make my brain explode one day soon lol.

For me its in the pile of very uncertain science, the pile of 'narratives the media will bloody love', and that means for me it qualifies as something I am going to cast aside as an irrelevant distraction, a misleading impression, unless such a time comes that other things are built on top of this theme that have more obvious merit, substance and real implications to them.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 5, 2020)

I must have missed earlier mentions of it, I do try to keep up with this thread before others as the OP. 

Anyhow I see the BBC website seems have muddled itself a bit trying to keep up with British and global updates at the same time. It is quite tricky to monitor what is going on from their site which is a shame. For a while they were organised and it was easy, no longer the case. 

We were wondering if there was a case at work and they were sent home or to hospital if we would be expected to do a deep clean before the rest could continue working. I will have a read about on the gov websites and see if there is any advice.


----------



## Supine (Mar 5, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Incidentally, I am pretty sure sometime today I overheard something on the radio that there may now be two variants of the virus out there.
> 
> Did anyone else hear that?



Virus constantly mutate so it's not as simple as two variants. This is a great study of covid genetic changes:


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Mar 5, 2020)

I'm not sure how any of these constant updates in the media help me at all. They don't change what I can do about any of it. My phone pinging me to tell me that there are X new cases in country Y or somebody has died in Z doesn't provide me with useful information and just drives me even more nuts than I already am.


----------



## killer b (Mar 5, 2020)

turn off the pings, why would you have them anyway?


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Mar 5, 2020)

killer b said:


> turn off the pings, why would you have them anyway?


Then I would also lose all the alerts about the latest developments in the labour leadership election

wait


----------



## killer b (Mar 5, 2020)

jesus, they actually ping you about that?

I got a text message from Richard Burgon the other day 'killer b, there's only 5 weeks left' it said. I was horrified.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 5, 2020)

FridgeMagnet said:


> I'm not sure how any of these constant updates in the media help me at all. They don't change what I can do about any of it. My phone pinging me to tell me that there are X new cases in country Y or somebody has died in Z doesn't provide me with useful information and just drives me even more nuts than I already am.


Perhaps try the official warnings 








						England Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK
					

Official Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease situation dashboard with latest data in the UK.




					www.gov.uk


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

WHO advice about coronavirus stress includes a recommendation to lessen the time you spend absorbing media coverage that is upsetting.

                                                                                       Download


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

killer b said:


> jesus, they actually ping you about that?
> 
> I got a text message from Richard Burgon the other day 'killer b, there's only 5 weeks left' it said. I was horrified.



Oh that reminds me:



> "Should, as part of your preparations need us to consider something more specific to your demise, ISS are happy to do so."











						Coronavirus email typo to government staff offers to help plan their 'demise'
					

EXCLUSIVE An email to staff at the Department for Business, Energy, Innovation and Skills seems to take an extremely dark turn, but there's an explanation




					www.mirror.co.uk


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Mar 5, 2020)

Does anyone else remember when "rolling news" was a new phenomenon and people criticised its psychological effects? Now all news is "rolling news". Even if one channel goes to sleep you have ones around the globe you can look at.


----------



## Supine (Mar 5, 2020)

FridgeMagnet said:


> Does anyone else remember when "rolling news" was a new phenomenon and people criticised its psychological effects? Now all news is "rolling news". Even if one channel goes to sleep you have ones around the globe you can look at.



The news will keep with this story for a while and then move onto something else.


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

Supine said:


> Virus constantly mutate so it's not as simple as two variants. This is a great study of covid genetic changes:




And here are several rebuttals of the '2 strains' thing:



(its a whole thread of tweets so have to click to get the full story from that one)

and









						Response to “On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2”
					

Response to “On the origin and continuing evolution of SARS-CoV-2”  Oscar A. MacLean*, Richard Orton, Joshua B. Singer, David L. Robertson.  MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research (CVR).  *To whom correspondence should be addressed: Oscar.MacLean@glasgow.ac.uk.  Introduction  An...




					virological.org


----------



## lazythursday (Mar 5, 2020)

This is interesting on the benefits of closing schools sooner rather than later:


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

lazythursday said:


> This is interesting on the benefits of closing schools sooner rather than later:




I found this teacher comment instructive: 
_There is a real sense of entitlement in people who expect schools, daycare centers, etc. to be open in times of trouble. "I need these workers to take unnecessary risks so that I can do my work without distraction." We all have to take it on the chin, unfortunately._

The point is that schools often turn into indices of transmission because of the proximity between children who can then infect parents back home. Shutdowns are for the greater good, healthcare workers' children can be looked after by others.


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> It was a difficult situation but I had every faith that Japanese bureaucracy would make it much worse!
> 
> I mean, just look at this for yet another example:
> 
> ...



Sounds like the CDC of the USA managed to take that concept several steps further. Initially declined to test a nurse who treated a confirmed case, and has some symptoms of illness themselves:

'they said that they would not test me because if I were wearing the recommended protective equipment then I wouldn't have the coronavirus'


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 5, 2020)

Trump saying people can go to work with Coronavirus.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 5, 2020)

(Unplanned, unrestricted, uncoordinated, nonquarantined travel leads to) a British woman possibly infecting others in Senegal (over 16 million with 20 modern hospitals)

_The __second patient__ was a 33-year-old British woman from London who arrived in Senegal on Feb. 24, the ministry said._

Senegal now up to 4, hopefully its containment is more successful than here.


----------



## kropotkin (Mar 6, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Start clearing beds as much as possible.


As in, do our job? This is a priority every day of the year, as demand outstrips beds in every hospital.


----------



## phillm (Mar 6, 2020)

Supine said:


> The news will keep with this story for a while and then move onto something else.


In about August if the Uk government is to be believed. It looks, sadly that we all get to be a part of this story.


----------



## bimble (Mar 6, 2020)

phillm said:


> In about August if the Uk government is to be believed. It looks, sadly that we all get to be a part of this story.


You really think this disease will stay the single dominant news story every day for 6 months? That seems unlikely, don't think anything ever has in my lifetime.


----------



## hegley (Mar 6, 2020)

bimble said:


> You really think this disease will stay the single dominant news story every day for 6 months? That seems unlikely, don't think anything ever has in my lifetime.


Brexit.


----------



## bimble (Mar 6, 2020)

true


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 6, 2020)

hegley said:


> Brexit.



Checkmate.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 6, 2020)

Jeremiah18.17 said:


> This first person report out of China indicates that it will be very unlikely the Chinese state will not take  advantage of the virus to advance their total surveillance agenda......
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This is worth a watch.


----------



## LDC (Mar 6, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> As in, do our job? This is a priority every day of the year, as demand outstrips beds in every hospital.



More ruthlessly I meant. Not my area though... although I'd love to institute proper triage at ED... "That's what you're here with? Fuck off home there's nowt wrong with you."


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 6, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> More ruthlessly I meant. Not my area though... although I'd love to institute proper triage at ED... "That's what you're here with? Fuck off home there's nowt wrong with you."



The biggest problem in freeing up beds is all the people with nowhere to go, be it those needing social care that doesn't exist or acute mental health care that doesn't exist. It's not that they're admitting too many malingerers in the first place. 

Any drastic action to kick people out of hospital beds could cost more lives, and among similarly vulnerable groups, than the coronavirus itself. 

Among many other things, it might be helpful if NHS hospitals hadn't been so relentlessly prodded into selling off 'excess' buildings which could potentially be repurposed for overflow/isolation wards in a crisis like this. If this gets really bad I would like to see the people responsible for demented policies like that hauled into court on charges of criminal negligence.


----------



## LDC (Mar 6, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> The biggest problem in freeing up beds is all the people with nowhere to go, be it those needing social care that doesn't exist or acute mental health care that doesn't exist. It's not that they're admitting too many malingerers in the first place.



That's true but only part of the issue. There are plenty of people in beds that could be treated as day cases or have treatment deferred in a crisis with no real negative impact on their health, and ED is full of people that didn't need an ambulance and don't need to be there. I think the clearing and prioritizing of treatment is maybe better started sooner rather than later if this thing is going to hit, which now seems to be inevitable from what the authorities are saying. 

Anyway, like I've said, working all that out isn't my job, but I do hope it's someone's and that they're competent.

Of course all the other stuff you said about funding, selling off property is totally true. I hope they seize the Premier Inn near to the hospital I work in to accommodate healthcare stuff, rather than having then go to and from home when/if if hits badly.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 6, 2020)

sihhi said:


> This is wrong. The Czech Republic and Greece were before.
> Italy on 23 January suspended direct flights from Wuhan and but direct flights from the rest of China on 30 January. Indirect entries into Italy were not stopped.



You could be right, but I've read several sources saying Italy was first to ban travel from China, which was indeed at the end if Jan., but THIS REPORT says - the Czech government announced the ban on direct flights between the Czech Republic and China due to the new coronavirus outbreak on February 3rd. , and I can't find anything about Greece doing the same, although THIS REPORT mentions - Air China will cancel flights to Athens, Greece, from Feb. 17, so clearly they weren't banned before that. So, it appears Italy was first.



> For instance one of the cases is a professor who went to central Italy had no symptoms but did not self-isolate as per guidelines so has infected several students in King's College London.



Google isn't bringing-up anything about a 'professor... infected several students in King's College London', there's just reports of one student testing positive.   

But, whatever, my main point remains, it's pointless to keep banging on about closing schools etc. at this time, when the various Chief Medical & Scientific Officers across the four nations of the UK disagree, based on, err, science.


----------



## IC3D (Mar 6, 2020)

There are many issues around freeing up beds the discharge process is often drawn out for one with patients waiting on a bed for hours until medications are ready to take home. There are some people intentionally and unintentionally holding up their discharge with unrealistic social care demands. 
I'd hold off talking down the NHS when nothings actually happened yet in relation to covid, its still functioning 24 hrs a day.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 6, 2020)

rookwood said:


> View attachment 200699
> That strikes me as fairly staggering and very likely cherry-picked. Trumpian.



Exactly. Reads to me like “we’ve run the numbers and decided that shutting everything down would be awfully expensive, and it’s cheaper to just let the poor people die quickly, so we’re going with that”


----------



## phillm (Mar 6, 2020)

bimble said:


> You really think this disease will stay the single dominant news story every day for 6 months? That seems unlikely, don't think anything ever has in my lifetime.


The sad truth is no one will ever have seen anything like this in our lifetimes. That said the government and news organisations may pivot to ensuring a good mix of positive stories and stop the blow by blow accounts that are currently running as the disease progresses.


----------



## bimble (Mar 6, 2020)

phillm said:


> The sad truth is no one will ever have seen anything like this in our lifetimes.


Hmm. At very least thats not true of people in sierra leone.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 6, 2020)

Cases in France & Germany have more than doubled in the last couple of days:



SOURCE -








						COVID-19 situation update worldwide
					

This update has been discontinued - please see the Weekly Country Overview report.




					www.ecdc.europa.eu


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 6, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Couple of useful bits here, simple explanatory video of how it kills and an article covering some of the healthcare treatments.




The video was interesting, thanks for posting it.  Informative without getting lost in jargon or too much detail. So from what I understood it’s not exactly pneumonia but rather an inflammation of the lungs which causes the life threatening hypoxia in severe cases. Does anyone know what causes the inflammation? I mean is it a direct and unavoidable consequence of what the virus is doing to the lungs, or is it a secondary effect from uncontrolled coughing (for example)?


----------



## phillm (Mar 6, 2020)

bimble said:


> Hmm. At very least thats not true of people in sierra leone.


 Yes or many other places. I should have said in the UK.


----------



## 2hats (Mar 6, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Does anyone know what causes the inflammation?


Primarily, your immune system attacking the virus.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 6, 2020)

2hats said:


> Primarily, your immune system attacking the virus.



Thanks. Sounds grim.  I hope someone can come up with a treatment to reduce the inflammation without hindering the immune system’s effectiveness against the virus. Guess that’s the holy grail.


----------



## 2hats (Mar 6, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Thanks. Sounds grim.


It's a necessary part of recovery (cut your hand, get infected and it becomes inflamed - your immune system at work). The real problems are those cases where the immune system overreacts,  particularly in the elderly and people with certain pre-existing conditions, illnesses.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 6, 2020)

Interesting, I get prednisone for asthma emergencies. I'm reluctant to take it because it suppresses the immune system. Which I realize now means it reduces inflammation. I'm to take it with antibiotics - so presumably they take over fighting the infection with prednisone reducing inflammation. 

Antibiotics no use fighting viruses so not relevant to the thread but something I'd not understood before.


----------



## LDC (Mar 6, 2020)

.


----------



## LDC (Mar 6, 2020)

2hats said:


> It's a necessary part of recovery (cut your hand, get infected and it becomes inflamed - your immune system at work). The real problems are those cases where the immune system overreacts,  particularly in the elderly and people with certain pre-existing conditions, illnesses.


 

Cytokine storm.


----------



## elbows (Mar 6, 2020)

I'm not really in the mood for looking much into the future, but this paper seems quite interesting so I'm posting it now in case I forget all about it later.


----------



## quimcunx (Mar 6, 2020)

Why are some articles talking about SARS-CoV-2, rather than coronavirus or COVID19?


----------



## elbows (Mar 6, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> Why are some articles talking about SARS-CoV-2, rather than coronavirus or COVID19?



COVID-19 is the name of the disease, not the virus.

There was some argument over the name of the virus but SARS-CoV-2 is the name of the virus used by plenty of scientists regardless of whatever the disputes were. There are other coronaviruses, including ones that affect us seasonally, so just calling it coronavirus is not an option.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 6, 2020)

elbows said:


> COVID-19 is the name of the disease, not the virus.
> 
> There was some argument over the name of the virus but SARS-CoV-2 is the name of the virus used by plenty of scientists regardless of whatever the disputes were. There are other coronaviruses, including ones that affect us seasonally, *so just calling it coronavirus is not an option.*



BIB, yet it's still is the most common name used by the media.


----------



## bimble (Mar 6, 2020)

Just got a text from boyfriend saying his dentist (north London) has the virus. No further info just he got an email telling him so. dont think he’s been there all that recently but


----------



## elbows (Mar 6, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> BIB, yet it's still is the most common name used by the media.



Thats mostly fine though, I just say coronavirus myself quite a lot, in the current context its usually obvious which one is meant. Scientific papers cant do that.


----------



## phillm (Mar 6, 2020)

Given the rate of increase in infection and our knowledge of the progress of the virus in China, Japan, Korea, Italy and Japan how long before we enter lockdown in some communities? This expert makes for a sombre viewing.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 6, 2020)

Good interview, a bit depressing to watch, let's hope the infection rates tend more to the 40 than the 60%.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 6, 2020)

phillm said:


> Given the rate of increase in infection and our knowledge of the progress of the virus in China, Japan, Korea, Italy and Japan how long before we enter lockdown in some communities? This expert makes for a sombre viewing.



If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections currently. It's taken 11 days to get there from the position we're in.

If you look at how they got there, their figures grew by about 40% a day for about half that time, then 20%-25% since then.

We're currently growing at 40% a day, so we're matching Italy at the equivalent point in time in their outbreak.

I plotted these numbers and this is what it looks like for the UK:


Friday, 6 March 2020163Saturday, 7 March 2020228Sunday, 8 March 2020319Monday, 9 March 2020447Tuesday, 10 March 2020626Wednesday, 11 March 2020877Thursday, 12 March 20201227Friday, 13 March 20201473Saturday, 14 March 20201767Sunday, 15 March 20202121Monday, 16 March 20202545Tuesday, 17 March 20203054Wednesday, 18 March 20203665Thursday, 19 March 20204398Friday, 20 March 20205277Saturday, 21 March 20206333Sunday, 22 March 20207599Monday, 23 March 20209119Tuesday, 24 March 202010943Wednesday, 25 March 202013131Thursday, 26 March 202015758

Obviously lots of caveats on this: This assumes we don't do anything and carry on as we are now. We know that if things get this bad then additional measures will be taken.

It also assumed that the growth rate stays at 20% after an initial fall, but we only have Italy to go on there. Our growth rates might be higher or lower. We don't know.

etc., etc.


----------



## 8ball (Mar 6, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Good interview, a bit depressing to watch, let's hope the infection rates tend more to the 0 than the 60%.



ffy


----------



## weltweit (Mar 6, 2020)

8ball said:


> ffy


Unfortunately surely that hope has already passed!


----------



## Wilf (Mar 6, 2020)

100 pages.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 6, 2020)

Italy now 4,636 cases, 197 dead, 10% of cases in ICUs

Palestinian Authority today all schools, universities, private establishments and public buildings closed first day of a month.

Iran's military checkpoints/blocks on motorways to stop private travel between cities has got going today ringing Qom.


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 6, 2020)

Germany, 600 cases, 0 deaths.


----------



## Pingety Pong (Mar 6, 2020)

It's starting to look pretty bad in North Rhine - Westphalia (where all my family live)


----------



## sihhi (Mar 6, 2020)

Italy has just declared all non-emergency hospitalisations cancelled. 
Doctors in some hospitals have made urgent appeals for equipment.
Govt will decide on Saturday whether to include Lombardia into the red zone or not, also said that it has not excluded extending the school closures beyond 15 March.
At least 150 family doctors are out of action either hospitalised or in self-isolation.
Italian intensive care patients now at around 480.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 6, 2020)

Hospitals in the UK have been reporting theft of hand sanitiser. What fucking low life does that?


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 6, 2020)

The mortality rate in Italy, then, is 4.2%. Are we to assume therefore that there are many more people with it undiagnosed? Number seems high compared to here or South Korea


----------



## sihhi (Mar 6, 2020)

Lombardia as a whole has 10% of hospital doctors either hospitalised or in isolation

Lombardia official quoted here:



I mentioned Australian models were too slow aswell expected community transfer six weeks later in April.
How will the NHS ones stand up?


----------



## sihhi (Mar 6, 2020)

S☼I said:


> The mortality rate in Italy, then, is 4.2%. Are we to assume therefore that there are many more people with it undiagnosed? Number seems high compared to here or South Korea



undertesting


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Mar 6, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Hospitals in the UK have been reporting theft of hand sanitiser. What fucking low life does that?


People steal it to drink it. It's undrinkable as it is but apparently you can get it down if you mix it with coke. It is still liable to make you very ill but hey, you're in a hospital.


----------



## rookwood (Mar 6, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Hospitals in the UK have been reporting theft of hand sanitiser. What fucking low life does that?



I was in Hilton Park services on the M6 today and someone had ripped the hand sanitiser station off the wall.


----------



## Supine (Mar 6, 2020)

rookwood said:


> I was in Hilton Park services on the M6 today and someone had ripped the hand sanitiser station off the wall.



That's normal


----------



## phillm (Mar 6, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections currently. It's taken 11 days to get there from the position we're in.
> 
> If you look at how they got there, their figures grew by about 40% a day for about half that time, then 20%-25% since then.
> 
> ...


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 6, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Germany, 600 cases, 0 deaths.



Doesn't Germany have a much better healthcare system than we do (now)? I think I read something Edie posted recently, comparing the two.




S☼I said:


> The mortality rate in Italy, then, is 4.2%. Are we to assume therefore that there are many more people with it undiagnosed? Number seems high compared to here or South Korea





sihhi said:


> undertesting



Worldwide, they do also have the highest proportion of elderly people after Japan, I think - so a higher death rate would follow, in any case, I guess?


----------



## mauvais (Mar 6, 2020)

rookwood said:


> I was in Hilton Park services on the M6 today and someone had ripped the hand sanitiser station off the wall.


I think I'd rather have a deadly virus than stop at Hilton Park. Any Moto really, but that is _the _one to avoid. You should probably be quarantined for making poor choices tbh.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 6, 2020)

phillm said:


>



I hate that he backs up a lot of my pessimistic thinking.

Thanks


----------



## Supine (Mar 6, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> I hate that he backs up a lot of my pessimistic thinking.
> 
> Thanks



He is very good at explaining the issue


----------



## Callie (Mar 6, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections currently. It's taken 11 days to get there from the position we're in.
> 
> If you look at how they got there, their figures grew by about 40% a day for about half that time, then 20%-25% since then.
> 
> ...


It also assumes (I am assuming) testing rates stay the same. Pretty sure we will increase the number of tests being performed quite a lot over the next week or two so cases likely to sky rocket. The cases are there now probably but we just haven't tested them yet.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 6, 2020)

Callie said:


> It also assumes (I am assuming) testing rates stay the same. Pretty sure we will increase the number of tests being performed quite a lot over the next week or two so cases likely to sky rocket. The cases are there now probably but we just haven't tested them yet.


Yes, exactly!

As I said, millions of caveats. I did a very crude calculation: each day multiple by 1.4 until we drop down to 1.2.  Well crude, but shows the kind of number we might be looking at.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 6, 2020)

Modelling might be quite a way off. The possibility for rapid increases is very present.

16 from one family infected in Algeria after a visit from someone from France









						Coronavirus : en Algérie, 16 membres d’une même famille contaminés
					

Ils auraient été contaminés par le coronavirus à la suite de contacts avec des ressortissants algériens en France, a annoncé jeudi le minist




					www.leparisien.fr


----------



## sihhi (Mar 6, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Worldwide, they do also have the highest proportion of elderly people after Japan, I think - so a higher death rate would follow, in any case, I guess?



As yet there's no particular evidence to suggest that of the 4,000+ infected a greater proportion are elderly than anywhere else. Following it anecdotally from China, the elderly die quicker the middle aged and the younger adults will come in time, unfortunately.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 6, 2020)

Callie said:


> It also assumes (I am assuming) testing rates stay the same. Pretty sure we will increase the number of tests being performed quite a lot over the next week or two so cases likely to sky rocket. The cases are there now probably but we just haven't tested them yet.


Just for comparison, here's how Italy's cases increased day by day:


2020-02-22 79 (+295%)2020-02-23 150 (+90%)2020-02-24 227 (+51%)2020-02-25 320 (+41%)2020-02-26 445 (+39%)2020-02-27 650 (+46%)2020-02-28 888 (+37%)2020-02-29 1,128 (+27%)2020-03-01 1,694 (+50%)2020-03-02 2,036 (+20%)2020-03-03 2,502 (+23%)2020-03-04 3,089 (+23%)2020-03-05 3,858 (+25%)2020-03-06 4,636 (+20%)

So we're about the 24th February compared to Italy's timeline....


----------



## elbows (Mar 6, 2020)




----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 6, 2020)

sihhi said:


> As yet there's no particular evidence to suggest that of the 4,000+ infected a greater proportion are elderly than anywhere else. Following it anecdotally from China, the elderly die quicker the middle aged and the younger adults will come in time, unfortunately.


Yes, that makes sense (taking no comfort at the idea of losing a huge swathe of the older population anyway, fwiw).


----------



## Callie (Mar 6, 2020)

I'd like to see number of tests performed alongside that. I think the UK have stated numbers tested not sure if Italy have done the same?

We'll probably lose the ability to count number of tests performed nationally once testing rolls out to local labs (or private ones), although you would hope they could provide data for epidemiological purposes


----------



## elbows (Mar 6, 2020)

When the first epidemic wave of swine flu began, they stopped trying to test everyone and started relying on a range of indicators to estimate number of cases. I dont know exactly what the plan is this time, but I expect some change compared to the current system of testing at some point.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 6, 2020)

elbows said:


>




I don't quite know how to react to this - I mean, y'know...


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 6, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> I don't quite know how to react to this - I mean, y'know...



It'd be kind of hilarious if Pence and Bloomberg got the virus - but Mike Pence is 60 and presumably very clean-living, and Bloomberg is rich enough to have any failing body parts replaced with fresh ones extracted from Olympic athletes, so even if they were infected, they would most like recover and go around telling people the coronavirus is nothing to worry about as long as you have faith in God and/or money.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 7, 2020)

elbows said:


> When the first epidemic wave of swine flu began, they stopped trying to test everyone and started relying on a range of indicators to estimate number of cases. I dont know exactly what the plan is this time, but I expect some change compared to the current system of testing at some point.



It will _probably_ change to diagnostic criteria ie CT scan with blotches and symptoms, as China did for a while.


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

Australia:

20m ago 00:16


> In Australia, Victorian health minister Jenny Mikakos says she is “flabbergasted” that a doctor who had flulike symptoms presented to work in the state this week. She says the ministry will be reminding doctors across the state not to present to work should they display any symptoms. The doctor in question came into contact with around 70 patients.



                            13m ago    00:24                  


> The latest case is a doctor from Toorak in his 70s, who displayed mild symptoms on a flight from the United States. He is now recovering in home isolation. It was confirmed positive last night following a series of tests. The doctor recently travelled to Denver and Bali Colorado, via Los Angeles, and was there for several days before onset. He most likely acquired his infection in the United States. He became unwell with a runny nose on an internal flight from Denver to San Francisco on February 27, US time, then flew from San Francisco to Melbourne on a United Airlines flight, arriving at approximately 9:30am Saturday the 29 February. *The doctor, from the Toorak clinic in Malvern Road consulted approximately 70 patients for five days, between Monday the 2 March and Friday the 6 March*.



A fine example of how the initially mild and familiar symptoms, along with assumptions about which locations carry infection risk, can contribute to individuals making errors of judgement. Our attitude towards 'colds' in normal times is one of the reasons we may be forced into dramatic measures, since even some people who really should know better are going to make these kinds of mistakes and spread the virus.

Something I might place in a similar realm is the sort of 'lets make uneasy jokes about your cold' stage some people are at right now, eg the end of this article:









						UK has plans to deal with pandemic causing up to 315,000 deaths
					

2013 paper outlines response to flu outbreak, long considered a more deadly risk than terrorism




					www.theguardian.com
				






> Cobra stands for Cabinet Office briefing room A, but in reality it describes a system for handling any national crisis. In fact, key meetings tend to take place in room F, the largest, which sits about 20 people, surrounded by screens for presentations or remote attendees. Sometimes gallows humour can take hold, even in the worst situations, as happened at a meeting on Friday last week, where other participants noted wryly that Whitty, the most senior doctor in England, appeared to have a cold.


----------



## rookwood (Mar 7, 2020)

mauvais said:


> I think I'd rather have a deadly virus than stop at Hilton Park. Any Moto really, but that is _the _one to avoid. You should probably be quarantined for making poor choices tbh.



_hangs head in shame_


----------



## lizzieloo (Mar 7, 2020)

This may have been posted, I've not been following this thread for a couple of days. Worth a repost if it has, in case it hasn't. (that made sense to me 🤷‍♀️)

A GIS dashboard showing global cases etc. from the John Hopkins University Corona Virus Resource Centre






						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

I am definitely too obsessed with this virus business. I'm just with a couple, one of  which works in a school and the other works in Central London, neither of them seem particularly worried about covid-19.

What do we have, some 160 cases and one death out of a population of 66 million, I can't work out the odds but it seems very unlikely I'm going to bump into an infected person anytime soon.

Even assuming massive growth in the number of infected people, the risks will still be quite low. It seems quite a long way from where we are now now to the potential infection of 60 to 80 percent of the population. Will it run riot in the population? In weeks or months, who can know the answer to such questions?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 7, 2020)

I feel sorry for the 3,500 trapped on the latest ship of doom, the Grand Princess moored off San Francisco, out of just 46 tested so far, 21 are positive.



> Pence said 21 positive results had been recorded – 19 crew members and two passengers – and that “those that will need to be quarantined will be quarantined. Those who will require medical help will receive it.” He urged elderly Americans to consider carefully taking future cruises during the crisis.





> The US government plans to take the Grand Princess to a “non-commercial port” where all the passengers and crew would be tested, however, *President Donald Trump said on Friday he would prefer not to allow the passengers onto American soil.
> 
> “I like the numbers being where they are,” said Trump, who appeared to be explicitly acknowledging his political concerns about the outbreak: “I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn’t our fault.”*



There're loads of Americans on-board, and it's no surprise that Trump couldn't give a flying fuck about them, because of the forthcoming election & he doesn't want the increased number of cases on US soil. . 









						Coronavirus: thousands stranded on cruise ship off California after 21 cases confirmed
					

Crew and passengers from more than 50 countries stuck on ship moored off San Francisco, as global infections pass 100,000 mark




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 7, 2020)

phillm said:


>




Makes for grim viewing, but it’s also corrected my assumption that this situation might be with us for the rest of the year then fade away. What he’s saying about the vaccine hit home - even if it’s available in a record breaking time, it will be limited in dose quantities, so basically only rich people and those most vulnerable will be able to get hold of it for some time after it comes out. In other words, we could easily be facing two years of this, whatever the reality of living with this turns out to be. No wonder the politicians hesitate to lock down everything.  Can we all stay home for two years, really?



elbows said:


> Australia:
> 
> 13m ago    00:24



Interesting. The doctor in his 70s apparently experienced a runny nose as his first symptom,yet we’ve been told time and again that runny nose is NOT a symptom of covid-19?  Fever, weakness, dry cough gets repeated over and again.

There was also the link @sihhi posted with a detailed description of the progression of a mild form of the illness in two patients who both had sore throat as initial symptoms.  I understand the authorities don’t want everyone with a sore throat or runny nose to jump to the conclusion that they have coronavirus, but wouldn’t it be better to give people accurate info?



lizzieloo said:


> This may have been posted, I've not been following this thread for a couple of days. Worth a repost if it has, in case it hasn't. (that made sense to me 🤷‍♀️)
> 
> A GIS dashboard showing global cases etc. from the John Hopkins University Corona Virus Resource Centre
> 
> ...



It’s a good link. Can be posted to this thread every few days as far as I’m concerned! 



cupid_stunt said:


> I feel sorry for the 3,500 trapped on the latest ship of doom, the Grand Princess moored off San Francisco, out of just 46 tested so far, 21 are positive.



They’re almost as screwed as the marketing team at Princess cruises. Seriously, who will be booking their cruise trips next year after such awful publicity?  Another company going under probably.

Wherever that ship ends up moored, let’s hope the quarantine is managed better than the Japanese example.


----------



## Crispy (Mar 7, 2020)

weltweit said:


> What do we have, some 160 cases and one death out of a population of 66 million, I can't work out the odds but it seems very unlikely I'm going to bump into an infected person anytime soon.
> 
> Even assuming massive growth in the number of infected people, the risks will still be quite low. It seems quite a long way from where we are now now to the potential infection of 60 to 80 percent of the population. Will it run riot in the population? In weeks or months, who can know the answer to such questions?


Compound growth is faster than you think, once it gets going. I would listen to the epidemiologists.


----------



## pesh (Mar 7, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Wherever that ship ends up moored, let’s hope the quarantine is managed better than the Japanese example.


Mike Pence is in charge. Everything is going to be fine.


----------



## andysays (Mar 7, 2020)

pesh said:


> Mike Pence is in charge. Everything is going to be fine.


It's OK, he's urged elderly Americans to consider carefully taking future cruises during the crisis.

Given the huge publicity around the first cruise ship in Japan, I'm amazed that these things are still operating, or that anyone who has already booked a place would even consider going. I can't think of a single worse place to be ATM


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

Even though the vaccine is probably a year away therapeutic drug combos are showing great promise in China and I hope we will have some powerful tools available in double-quick time. Focusing on the positive is going to be really important for our mental health.









						Coronavirus: nine reasons to be reassured
					

Yes, Covid-19 is serious, but context is key and the world is well placed to deal with it




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## sihhi (Mar 7, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> In other words, we could easily be facing two years of this, whatever the reality of living with this turns out to be. No wonder the politicians hesitate to lock down everything.  Can we all stay home for two years, really?


I suspect China even Hubei province will not be at home for 2 years. At least 4 provinces are back to pretty much normal  except with masks schools expected to open in the next 2 weeks


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> ..
> Interesting. The doctor in his 70s apparently experienced a runny nose as his first symptom,yet we’ve been told time and again that runny nose is NOT a symptom of covid-19?  Fever, weakness, dry cough gets repeated over and again.
> ..


I was in my GP surgery last week and they had a poster which said the first symptom is a runny nose.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 7, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I was in my GP surgery last week and they had a poster which said the first symptom is a runny nose.



Ok, maybe I was just wrong about that. I was sure I’d seen posters saying runny nose is not a symptom, but could have been mistaken.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Ok, maybe I was just wrong about that. I was sure I’d seen posters saying runny nose is not a symptom, but could have been mistaken.


There is definitely some misinformation around one of the guys at work said categorically that a runny nose meant you have got a cold not coronavirus. I prefer to trust the NHS.


----------



## Supine (Mar 7, 2020)

The list of symptoms isn't a black and white issue. At the moment the spectrum of symptoms observed in percentages of patients is being determined.


----------



## baldrick (Mar 7, 2020)

lizzieloo said:


> This may have been posted, I've not been following this thread for a couple of days. Worth a repost if it has, in case it hasn't. (that made sense to me 🤷‍♀️)
> 
> A GIS dashboard showing global cases etc. from the John Hopkins University Corona Virus Resource Centre
> 
> ...


This has been posted several, maybe tens, of times.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 7, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am definitely too obsessed with this virus business. I'm just with a couple, one of  which works in a school and the other works in Central London, neither of them seem particularly worried about covid-19.
> 
> What do we have, some 160 cases and one death out of a population of 66 million, I can't work out the odds but it seems very unlikely I'm going to bump into an infected person anytime soon.
> 
> Even assuming massive growth in the number of infected people, the risks will still be quite low. It seems quite a long way from where we are now now to the potential infection of 60 to 80 percent of the population. Will it run riot in the population? In weeks or months, who can know the answer to such questions?



While this crisis has been going on roughly five people a day have been dying in road accidents in the UK as per usual.


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

There is a lot of internet noise about this being a 'magic bullet' for all viruses. No doubt Jazzesque though....





__





						DRACO - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## Supine (Mar 7, 2020)

phillm said:


> There is a lot of internet noise about this being a 'magic bullet' for all viruses. No doubt Jazzesque though....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Only 1 in 10,000 investigational medicines make it all the way through trials to commercialisation.  Don’t hold your breath for this one.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 7, 2020)

phillm said:


> There is a lot of internet noise about this being a 'magic bullet' for all viruses. No doubt Jazzesque though....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The bit about indiegogo crowd funding does not augur well for the legitimacy of this.

I don't like the proposed mechanism either, as it claims to kill off any cells expressing long chain mRNAs. Whilst it's true that most mRNAs produced in healthy mammalian cells are short, IIRC there are some proteins whose expression requires longer mRNAs to be produced, including stuff of trivial importance like, um, haemoglobin.

e2a: I wrote a novel about a failed attempt at curing viral infections in a simillar manner to this. The end result is that nearly everyone on Earth dies when the 'cure' decides that healthy bone marrow is a legitimate target.


----------



## ruffneck23 (Mar 7, 2020)

As of December 2015, research related to DRACOs had ground to a halt, for obscure reasons described variously as "murky" and "due to the extreme novelty of its mechanism".


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

Supine said:


> The list of symptoms isn't a black and white issue. At the moment the spectrum of symptoms observed in percentages of patients is being determined.



Are we likely to see a UK-specific study using the clinical data from the first 100 UK cases do you think?


----------



## Supine (Mar 7, 2020)

elbows said:


> Are we likely to see a UK-specific study using the clinical data from the first 100 UK cases do you think?



I’d imagine the clinical data will be under constant review for quite some time. It’ll be based on the thousands of test results rather than just the fatalities.


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> The bit about indiegogo crowd funding does not augur well for the legitimacy of this.
> 
> I don't like the proposed mechanism either, as it claims to kill off any cells expressing long chain mRNAs. Whilst it's true that most mRNAs produced in healthy mammalian cells are short, IIRC there are some proteins whose expression requires longer mRNAs to be produced, including stuff of trivial importance like, um, haemoglobin.
> 
> e2a: I wrote a novel about a failed attempt at curing viral infections in a simillar manner to this. The end result is that nearly everyone on Earth dies when the 'cure' decides that healthy bone marrow is a legitimate target.



Oh dear, he looks like his work would grace the annal's of Crocels Research.


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

Supine said:


> I’d imagine the clinical data will be under constant review for quite some time. It’ll be based on the thousands of test results rather than just the fatalities.



I found a name for what I was on about with previous outbreaks - First Few Hundred (FF100).


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 7, 2020)

Reading on Reddit about the cancellation of various conferences, and the knock-on effects it is having on all sorts of industries, from vendors and hospitality to dog-walkers not having clients going away any more.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 7, 2020)

Iran is fucked









						Iranian MP Fatema Rahbar Dies From Coronavirus
					

An Iranian lawmaker has died from coronavirus, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Saturday, in an another sign the disease is spreading within state institutions. Iran is one of the countries outside China most affected by the epidemic.




					m.aawsat.com


----------



## Flavour (Mar 7, 2020)

We're all fucked. elbows what do you make of this thread?








						Thread by @LizSpecht: I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet.…
					

Thread by @LizSpecht: I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today…




					threadreaderapp.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

Flavour said:


> We're all fucked. elbows what do you make of this thread?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I dont have time to read it properly at the moment. But healthcare system collapse is something I would expect, and is the aspect that has bothered me most from the start. The only reason I'm not going on about it more is that I dont actually enjoy being a doom-monger, and for some people I think the penny will only drop once this stuff actually happens here in the UK. 

I dont have much in mind in terms of how it could be avoided. I suspect a huge chunk of luck would be required, eg if we somehow only got a large outbreak in a few locations at a time, so resources could be redirected from elsewhere. And even then it would be extremely difficult.

I dunno, I dont work in healthcare, but I dont know how to read about 10% of cases requiring intensive care in Italy without fearing the worst.


----------



## lazythursday (Mar 7, 2020)

So glancing at the stats in UK so far by local authority, it looks like cases are pretty dispersed, no particular hotspots in the main, with most places having zero or 1-4 cases. I assume this is pretty good news so far?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

lazythursday said:


> So glancing at the stats in UK so far by local authority, it looks like cases are pretty dispersed, no particular hotspots in the main, with most places having zero or 1-4 cases. I assume this is pretty good news so far?


Nope, the opposite in fact, if cases were concentrated it would be easier to restrict the spread.


----------



## lazythursday (Mar 7, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Nope, the opposite in fact, if cases were concentrated it would be easier to restrict the spread.


I think that would only be the case with much higher numbers... So far many of these are likely returned travellers and immediate contacts. 

I'm not optimistic about this - it will take off - but it feels like we are doing better than others so far eg US.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

lazythursday well we are certainly doing better than Italy!


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 7, 2020)

weltweit said:


> lazythursday well we are certainly doing better than Italy!


We're earlier in the stage of spread than Italy, as elbows has pointed out might well be the case. By maybe 11 days.


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

https://www.facebook.com/abdu.sharkawy?__tn__=%2CdC-R-R&eid=ARBsNcL3KUsco8JnuwvHPs6vh7biOhQZhsAM5GQ4ro3GMow6LNIy6aC8308ADpOPqcpLrxpimzi1p2AI&hc_ref=ARQXECudcyPjoGkS4rxDnHWihC57xXjz7_AbQLpYA9_RbMSOOsZDCvbA3PBJhPsmS9U&fref=nf
		


I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further.The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

#washurhands #geturflushot #respect #patiencenotpanic


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

I understand the intent of such messages, and there is a logic to directing attention towards the things that humans do have control over. However, any message that builds itself around a 'the virus itself wont do much harm' stance is not a message that I would spread around at this stage.


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

'


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

Take for example the notion that it is the 'worried well' that will overload the healthcare system.

It will probably be a factor. It wont be directly responsible for intensive care bed shortages etc. 

I'd much rather have a pandemic where everyone who warns about the terrible impact of the virus itself is proven wrong. I'd far rather be subject to ridicule in a few months than have to watch various things collapse. I'd rather have a pandemic where the overly reassuring messages turn out to be the right ones, where letters of opinion about this being a story of inappropriate human overreaction turn out to be spot on rather than a sad misdirection that will not survive this pandemic.


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

phillm said:


> Edited to take that bit out. Wise words thanks elbows.



Why do that? If they said it then its a part of their message and should be left in. My criticism of it doesnt make sense if you chop out a bit I dont like, a bit that is important to understanding their overall stance.

edit - oh I guess its because of my choice of language 'not a message I would spread around myself'. Sorry, that wasnt supposed to be a criticism of you posting it, it was just another way of me saying that I dont agree with the sentiment they are expressing (although they are right about some stuff).


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

elbows said:


> Why do that? If they said it then its a part of their message and should be left in. My criticism of it doesnt make sense if you chop out a bit I dont like, a bit that is important to understanding their overall stance.
> 
> edit - oh I guess its because of my choice of language 'not a message I would spread around myself'. Sorry, that wasnt supposed to be a criticism of you posting it, it was just another way of me saying that I dont agree with the sentiment they are expressing (although they are right about some stuff).


reverted ! The message is out and running now quoted in the Guardian live feed.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 7, 2020)

One of the heads of the Italian government has announced he's got it now


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

I may as well take the opportunity to say that the various bad responses by some people, governments, etc are on my mind too. I'm not trying to pretend those things arent happening or are not an important part of the story. Its just that I get sick of the focus on those aspects at the expense of the correct impression about the damage the virus itself will do.

Nor do I think it is simply wrong for various people who are trying to do their responsible bit for society saying things designed to reduce panic and irrational, ugly behaviours. But the way some people are doing this is inappropriate in my opinion, not least because it ends up sending confusing mixed messages. This is a situation where very draconian steps may be taken by the authorities, and if people buy into the idea that this is all a story of panic and unnecessary economic damage then how are people supposed to square these very different messages and acts?

Its not just people writing letters online, The current UK stance is at an awkward moment. The BBC news last night was almost in war time mode, and even then some very mixed messages were on display, sometimes within the same sentence. I'm sure there will be more opportunities ahead for me to describe this in more detail.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 7, 2020)

World War C


----------



## sihhi (Mar 7, 2020)

Something we'll see more and more outside China as well: whole blocks quarantined, foot distributed to its foyer from the outside.

Chinese CDC article here making the case against isolation at home :

To control the infection, confirmed case-patients should be separated and managed centrally; thus, the government has designated special hospitals to admit patients with suspected or confirmed cases.

Also stressing children are a key factor:

We found a sharply increasing proportion of infected children (from 2% before January 24 to 13% for January 25–February 5; p<0.001), implying that increased exposure for children and intrafamily transmission might contribute substantially to the epidemic.

So as a rough guideline: after someone is infected they will pass the infection on to people they live with after about 3 days - before they are symptomatic.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 7, 2020)

Flavour said:


> One of the heads of the Italian government has announced he's got it now



Nicola Zingaretti?









8 days ago he said: 'The watchword is normality, we cannot shut down Milan.' Now confirmed case.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 7, 2020)

BBC breaking news -
A hotel has collapsed in south-eastern Fujian province, trapping dozens of people under the rubble, state media has reported.

The Xinjia Hotel in the city of Quanzhou collapsed at around 19:30 local time (11:30 GMT) on Saturday.

According to the Global Times newspaper, the building was being used to hold people who had been in close contact with others confirmed to have the virus. They were under medical observation.

About 70 people were in the building when it collapsed and 32 have been rescued so far, says the newspaper, which belongs to the Chinese Communist Party.

It is not yet clear what caused the building to collapse.

Plus
UK cases up to 206


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 7, 2020)

US hospitals expecting about half a million deaths in the first 2 month epi wave: One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they're preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections currently. It's taken 11 days to get there from the position we're in.
> 
> If you look at how they got there, their figures grew by about 40% a day for about half that time, then 20%-25% since then.
> 
> ...


Today's number is 206 .


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> US hospitals expecting about half a million deaths in the first 2 month epi wave: One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they're preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 7, 2020)

FUck!









						70 people trapped as coronavirus quarantine hotel collapses in China
					

More than two dozen people pulled from rubble so far




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

So phillm what is your opinion of how the UK is responding to this virus thus far, and do you think the NHS will be able to cope with an escalation?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

S☼I said:


> We're earlier in the stage of spread than Italy, as elbows has pointed out might well be the case. By maybe 11 days.


I am not so sure on this, the first thing we heard from them was a number of deaths suggesting that they had 1 not been taking infections very seriously 2 they would not have been doing the contact tracing we did and 3 they appeared to have been taken by surprise by their infections.


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

weltweit said:


> So phillm what is your opinion of how the UK is responding to this virus thus far, and do you think the NHS will be able to cope with an escalation?


 
Anecdotally and from my experience of coming into Heathrow two days ago from Thailand where there was no heat scanning examination of passengers and just a piece of photocopied paper asking you to self-quarantine if you had symptoms of a cough, sore throat or fever didn't seem to be an aggressive way to defend your borders given that the authorities know how serious this is and must have known for several weeks at least. 

I would also hope that local areas have requisitioned empty hotels/ barracks and other suitable buildings to use as quarantine /isolation hospitals and are being equipped up as best they can be to help ameliorate the load of our current hospitals like they did in Wuhan. And if such facilities are being prepped then publicise them as part of a programme of letting people know how serious this is and how important it is that everybody does their bit to help in fighting this damn thing. 

It would no doubt also be useful for the PM to say that they have asked to suspend Brexit for the foreseeable and the 30k civil servants currently working on it are being deployed to cope with the emergency and to help with local planning. No country it would appear has sufficient healthcare capacity to cope with a threat of this nature and so no we won't be able to cope with the escalation. That seems starkly obvious  I'm afraid. but we must hope the plans that are in place and the resources that have been applied to them may just about hold up. Apparently we are number one in the world for pandemic preparedness so let's hope that counts for something when the crisis hits and Professor Whitty is just the sort of calm, safe pair of hands that we need at the moment. 

The frontline staff of the NHS must be deeply fearful at what is about to happen and the sacrifices they will be asked to make. Particularly if they have insufficient supplies of protective gear available to them.

I hope all these things are happening but we don't know so I'm not filled with a great deal of hope at the moment. I phoned my elderly next-door neighbour to have a chat and tell them once I'm out of quarantine I'm very happy to help with shopping and any other errands I can do. If there is anything else I can do locally I will try and do my bit, phoning friends and family and keeping our spirits up seems to be the best we can do. These are serious times.

.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 7, 2020)

Italy and Iran both up over 1000 cases since yesterday.

Grim


----------



## scifisam (Mar 7, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Dan U spring-peeper
> 
> How can a school shutdown be worse than a pandemic if carers' children are looked after someone else who will also be at home for a period of 2-3 weeks?
> 3 and a half million were evacuated in the war.
> ...



IF carers' children are looked after by someone else. Why would you assume everyone has access to that? Besides, that wouldn't be much better than shutting down the schools - it would still mean travelling to where your kids are being looked after, and your kids still mixing with others. It wouldn't be quarantine at all.



andysays said:


> The government starting to instruct organisers to cancel events seems to me to be a sensible step to take now, as much to demonstrate that this is a serious issue and that dealing with it will require some sacrifices to be made, in addition to the actual risks of transmission at such events



The govt could also help by promising to back up insurance companies being forced to pay out more than expected (I think they've done similar before), and giving small payments to the under-insured.



weltweit said:


> So phillm what is your opinion of how the UK is responding to this virus thus far, and do you think the NHS will be able to cope with an escalation?



Just so you know, I don't think the post where phillm said "I am a doctor" was intended to say that phillm is a doctor. It was cut and paste from a post by a doctor called Sharkawy that was posted on Facebook.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

phillm yes I don't really understand why there are not restrictions on inward travel especially as the vast majority of our cases seem still to be individuals that have travelled here from hot spots.

I did wonder if sympathy with the airlines / airports or worry over legal action might have been in the government's thoughts?

On the positive side we do seem to be testing plenty of people which can only be a good thing. And I suppose that comes from the contact tracing which we haven't abandoned yet. If or when they abandon contact tracing will be a serious moment, one at which government accept that the virus is rife and fully abroad in the wider population.

And I understand scientists are being asked for a rapid test kit which if possible could help matters.

At this stage I still hope a full on epidemic in the UK might be avoided even if the infection rate rising as it is suggests we may be passed the point of return.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 7, 2020)

scifisam said:


> IF carers' children are looked after by someone else. Why would you assume everyone has access to that? Besides, that wouldn't be much better than shutting down the schools - it would still mean travelling to where your kids are being looked after, and your kids still mixing with others. It wouldn't be quarantine at all.



I don't think you've understood. The carer would not be travelling to their children during the epidemic peak. Likewise hospital workers would not be returning to their children.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

scifisam said:


> ..
> Just so you know, I don't think the post where phillm said "I am a doctor" was intended to say that phillm is a doctor. It was cut and paste from a post by a doctor called Sharkawy that was posted on Facebook.


Oh, thanks, I did misunderstand that then, sorry to all concerned


----------



## Thora (Mar 7, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I don't think you've understood. The carer would not be travelling to their children during the epidemic peak. Likewise hospital workers would not be returning to their children.


I don’t understand either then. Who are the carers? Where are the children going?


----------



## Supine (Mar 7, 2020)

Cochrane have started pumping out geek level analysis of medical research related to Covid-19. 



			https://www.cochranelibrary.com/collections/doi/SC000040/full


----------



## sihhi (Mar 7, 2020)

As I calculate it now the numbers from Italy deemed critical (needing ICU) are doubling every 2.5-3 days.

weltweit I think the whole response has been market-led and weak. If the market can't sustain flights then, the problem is consumers' choices are at a 4 week lag to the spread of the virus.

Right now the country is wasting valuable time, continuing to import cases as it exports them elsewhere.



Thora said:


> I don’t understand either then. Who are the carers? Where are the children going?



The issue was people who do adult care and hospital workers what would happen if there were -school closures.
I suggested as with the experience of Evacuation in 1939-1940 volunteers could take in the children of those key workers so they would not worry about childcare at all regardless of whether schools were closed or not, and infection from these workers -> children -> schoolmates -> other adults could be avoided.


----------



## Thora (Mar 7, 2020)

It’s a nice idea, but I think the vast majority of parents would rather not go to work than send their children to live with “volunteers”.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 7, 2020)

Thora said:


> It’s a nice idea, but I think the vast majority of parents would rather not go to work than send their children to live with “volunteers”.



Which parents do you mean? Hospital workers or carers?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

sihhi said:


> ..
> weltweit I think the whole response has been market-led and weak. If the market can't sustain flights then, the problem is consumers' choices are at a 4 week lag to the spread of the virus.
> 
> Right now the country is wasting valuable time, continuing to import cases as it exports them elsewhere.
> ..


I tend to agree about the weak response. The contact tracing is good and the testing is good but more cases are arriving at our airports every day.

Hubei restricted travel, in and out, I don't understand why the UK isn't considering this.

Even Italy as I understand it have locked down the north. Perhaps we are waiting to get to that level? Why wait?


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

Assuming that the figures from China are roughly correct (a big assumption I know) and taking into account that extreme societal measures have been taken does this graph indicate there is a big element of panic in the current discourse ?


----------



## Supine (Mar 7, 2020)

Know your enemy...


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

The 24% battery is a cause for concern and outside of my comfort zone.


----------



## Thora (Mar 7, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Which parents do you mean? Hospital workers or carers?


Well, any parents really.  But do you really think it is realistic for hospital workers to send their children to live with volunteers to enable them to go to work?


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

phillm said:


> Assuming that the figures from China are roughly correct (a big assumption I know) and taking into account that extreme societal measures have been taken does this graph indicate there is a big element of panic in the current discourse ?



For me it indicates either that we should wait and see the picture develop in some other countries, or we should stop labelling so many things as panic and start calling some of them the necessary response.

Because either there is something missing or bogus about Chinas numbers, in which case we need to see other countries data, or something unexplained happened and we should see if that is repeated elsewhere, or Chinas extreme measures are the only reason the graph looks like that in which case we will need our own versions of the same extremes.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 7, 2020)

elbows said:


> I understand the intent of such messages, and there is a logic to directing attention towards the things that humans do have control over. However, any message that builds itself around a 'the virus itself wont do much harm' stance is not a message that I would spread around at this stage.



I think he makes some good points - especially about getting the flu shot - but he does seem to have been downplaying things quite a bit, and expressing a degree of confidence in health authorities in the US and Canada that now seems unfounded, at least for the US.

Same guy on Feb 1:  





> "The case fatality rate is actually DECLINING if anything and is now tracking at 2.1%. Despite the apparent "explosion" of new cases (now over 12,000), there have been ZERO deaths outside of China! ... Remain Calm. Panic, fear and anxiety belong in an M Knight Shayamalan thriller, not here."



On Feb. 16:  





> "For those elsewhere who continue to suggest that the sky is falling down, please note there have been a grand total of 4 deaths outside of China. The disparity in outcomes between China and other nations likely reflects the fact that travel outside of China has been radically restricted, along with the fact that there is superior healthcare infrastructure in many other parts of the world where people can be assessed and cared for in a more timely manner, preventing complications, including secondary bacterial pneumonia and death.
> 
> A grand total of ZERO deaths in North America have occurred. This could certainly change but for now is extremely reassuring for those of us fortunate enough to be in Canada and the US, where our greater fears should be wondering what exactly we are eating in a "Beyond Burger" or losing WIFI signal during the speech marathon at a wedding we wished we weren't invited to. "



"Stay calm" is obviously a good message to send, but public policy in the Toronto area, where this doctor works, might have gone a little too far in focusing on it above any other concerns -  school boards have strictly banned teachers, students, and other school employees from wearing masks because they don't want to make anybody feel nervous.


----------



## bimble (Mar 7, 2020)

phillm said:


> Assuming that the figures from China are roughly correct (a big assumption I know) and taking into account that extreme societal measures have been taken does this graph indicate there is a big element of panic in the current discourse ?
> 
> View attachment 200921


I think there is a big element of panic but also its only gone down like that in your graph because of the measures that China took isn't it. Lock downs, instant massive hospitals etc. Which we are absolutely not doing.
From - extremely small - sample of people round here that I've talked to none are taking it seriously, not taking any precautions not even washing hands more than usual, because they think its all overblown the media etc (even though we've got a few confirmed cases in the county). So if thats typical is a bit worrying.

But the main thing far as I understand it (medical not societal) isn't the death rate its that if the infection curve is sharp and then say even 5% of the people who get infected will need real care from the NHS (intensive care beds) all at once then the system will get totally overwhelmed & properly dysfunctional so people will die, of this or of whatever else that there'll be no space and staff to help with.
If we could slow things down so the peak isn't so high but longer and lower it would be more or less 'fine' but don't see any measures in place to do that as yet.

Noticed in Tescos today that I am worried, was trying to not touch face the whole time but even then i did touch it loads, whilst pushing round the trolley, after touchscreen check out.


----------



## Supine (Mar 7, 2020)

phillm said:


> Assuming that the figures from China are roughly correct (a big assumption I know) and taking into account that extreme societal measures have been taken does this graph indicate there is a big element of panic in the current discourse ?
> 
> View attachment 200921



I'd say it shows China has done a great job and the Chinese people have worked with the government and their own communities to improve things massively. It at least gets them out of the health care system swamped scenario (hopefully).

Covid has started spreading though and China will probably see the numbers go back up as their industry gets back to work. The west should still be worried as shutting down cities isn't something we've done before as far as I know.


----------



## andysays (Mar 7, 2020)

Thora said:


> Well, any parents really.  But do you really think it is realistic for hospital workers to send their children to live with volunteers to enable them to go to work?


I don't think it is something which people would generally accept.

But I also think we have a serious problem if we simply accept the idea that we can't consider doing anything about the transmission risks that keeping all schools fully open poses, because some of the parents work in hospitals and other vital services, and some of those parents would find it difficult to make alternative childcare arrangements if their children weren't going to school.

It means that the virus will spread faster and further, and we reach much sooner the point at which significant numbers of those health workers/parents won't be able to work because they've caught the virus off their kids who have caught it off their school mates, rather than because they're taking time off to look after their kids.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 7, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I tend to agree about the weak response. The contact tracing is good and the testing is good but more cases are arriving at our airports every day.
> 
> Hubei restricted travel, in and out, I don't understand why the UK isn't considering this.
> 
> Even Italy as I understand it have locked down the north. Perhaps we are waiting to get to that level? Why wait?



Hubei restricted travel within aswell, every single region in China restricted travel to a greater or lesser degree.

The answer is because people in charge believe in market responses and laissez faire, the Grenfell Tower approach.


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

Plus one of the reasons school closures are thought to be one of the more effective tools during an epidemic is precisely because it also stops a whole bunch of adults going about their normal work etc.

I suppose ideally what they would do is try to get the benefits of school closures whilst also trying to mitigate somewhat against the impact on frontline essential healthcare workers and some others that are considered essential. I'm not sure they have a brilliant plan to achieve that.

I suspect they wont even be aiming to achieve the sort of reductions that Chinas numbers show anyway. They would like a less dramatic version in every sense, including how dramatic the situation is in local hospitals before this stage is kicked into action. So with that in mind a big question is how much difference various policies that lead to social distancing, but not to the extreme extent achieved in China, will make to the virus.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 7, 2020)

Thora said:


> Well, any parents really.  But do you really think it is realistic for hospital workers to send their children to live with volunteers to enable them to go to work?



If both halves of a couple are hospital workers, definitely, the volunteer can be a friend, sibling or relative.
Over 3 million were evacuated during the war in three waves.






Of course now it would be open to men aswell.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

Does anyone know what Chinese healthcare workers did? What arrangements were in place for them?


----------



## sihhi (Mar 7, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Does anyone know what Chinese healthcare workers did? What arrangements were in place for them?



In Hubei:
Most were in requisitioned quarters - usually technical colleges, university dorms fortunately because it was New Year holiday most students had already left. 
Those that had no family members or wanted to stay with their families regardless were transported back and forth by volunteer car drivers. 
Some army healthcare workers slept in makeshift accomodation insulated tents, some were kept on a cruiser that had been specifically sent up the Yangtze.

Not sure about other less effected provinces.


----------



## Thora (Mar 7, 2020)

sihhi said:


> If both halves of a couple are hospital workers, definitely, the volunteer can be a friend, sibling or relative.
> Over 3 million were evacuated during the war in three waves.
> 
> 
> Of course now it would be open to men aswell.


I'm sure if schools are shut, any worker who is able to send their children to a friend or relative will.
However, no one will send their child to live with a stranger.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

sihhi I was also wondering if they had any special arrangements for healthcare workers children as I believe schools were also shut.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 7, 2020)

Thora said:


> However, no one will send their child to live with a stranger.



Why not? This is exactly what happened during the war if you had no family members in the countryside/Canada.


----------



## Thora (Mar 7, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Why not? This is exactly what happened during the war if you had no family members in the countryside/Canada.


Do you have children?  Would you send them to live with a stranger?

It's not the 1940s, and even then during an actual war less than half of children were evacuated.  We understand a lot more about child abuse now, parents aren't even allowed to go on school trips without DBS checks.  Parents are cautious about their children going on Cub camps or having sleepovers with school friends.  There is no chance people would be happy for their children to stay with strangers, especially people who have volunteered rather than paid, qualified, checked childminders or foster carers.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 7, 2020)

andysays said:


> I don't think it is something which people would generally accept.
> 
> But I also think we have a serious problem if we simply accept the idea that we can't consider doing anything about the transmission risks that keeping all schools fully open poses, because some of the parents work in hospitals and other vital services, and some of those parents would find it difficult to make alternative childcare arrangements if their children weren't going to school.
> 
> It means that the virus will spread faster and further, and we reach much sooner the point at which significant numbers of those health workers/parents won't be able to work because they've caught the virus off their kids who have caught it off their school mates, rather than because they're taking time off to look after their kids.



I think forcing care workers and health professionals to send their kids away to live with "volunteers" (and where would we get them?) for an unspecified amount of time would, er, simply not happen. Yeah, we're gonna take your kids away and send them to strangers, so that you can continue to go to work in a high risk and often low-paid job. Rrright. 

And shipping a hundred thousand or more kids around the country wouldn't be bad for quarantine scenarios _at all_. It's not the blitz; bombs are infectious. (And 3 and a half million kids weren't evacuated during the blitz; either; that'd be around a third of children in the UK at the time).

Schools being closed certainly is one of the potential routes to take, but when, where and why is the complicated question. All of them, now, after a single death, with most areas having no known positive tests, is likely to cause more problems than it solves.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 7, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Why not? This is exactly what happened during the war if you had no family members in the countryside/Canada.



Child protection nightmare.


----------



## lazythursday (Mar 7, 2020)

Surely it's not beyond the realms of possibility to close most schools but keep one school open in an area to cater for kids of key workers? Or something similar. Most would be able to stay with one of their friends anyway surely?


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 7, 2020)

phillm said:


> Assuming that the figures from China are roughly correct (a big assumption I know) and taking into account that extreme societal measures have been taken does this graph indicate there is a big element of panic in the current discourse ?



I wouldn't trust any numbers or any other information provided by the Chinese government, but in Hong Kong, which is (for now) probably a little more reliable, the figures seem similar - Hong Kong had some early infections and only closed the border very belatedly, but after school closures, etc., they now have fewer cases than Norway.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 7, 2020)

scifisam said:


> I think forcing care workers and health professionals to send their kids away to live with "volunteers" (and where would we get them?) for an unspecified amount of time would, er, simply not happen. Yeah, we're gonna take your kids away and send them to strangers, so that you can continue to go to work in a high risk and often low-paid job. Rrright.
> 
> And shipping a hundred thousand or more kids around the country wouldn't be bad for quarantine scenarios _at all_.



It wasn't forced in China, doesn't need to be forced. They don't need to shipped around the country, why on earth would they? They could just aswell _*go across the street*, _providing there was someone willing and able to look after them.


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

Since protecting the old and vulnerable is key with this pandemic would have thought that clear messaging that they should hunker down should go out like *now. *My 30k redeployed Brexit civil servants would be assigned regionally to look at pension payments and other data, identify claimants and determine need. If they have families that can buy food online keep them supported then fine. Others would be contacted and supported as necessary. Local volunteers could be drafted in as well. Will it happen I doubt it.


----------



## Thora (Mar 7, 2020)

sihhi said:


> It wasn't forced in China, doesn't need to be forced. They don't need to shipped around the country, why on earth would they? They could just aswell _*go across the street*, _providing there was someone willing and able to look after them.


Realistically, in the UK, people will only send their children to stay with family members/very close friends and only family members/close friends would be willing and able to look after them.  Local volunteers caring for children, especially overnight, just wouldn't work here.

Possibly if the government was serious about freeing healthcare/care workers, they could give households where all adults are care workers funding to pay childminders or friends to look after their children.


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

Looks like it arrived in Italy at the end of December.

_At the end of December, an uncommon number of pneumonia cases arrived at the hospital of Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward, Stefano Paglia, told the newspaper La Repubblica. Some of these patients could carry the coronavirus, but doctors treated them as typical winter diseases.

Unfortunately, a decisive contribution to the spread of the infection was given by the health facility itself, due to the amount of medical staff and attendees going through the compound daily._









						Leap in coronavirus cases tests limits of Italy’s health system
					

Nearly 6,000 test positive for novel coronavirus as the southern European nation struggles to contain outbreak.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## JimW (Mar 7, 2020)

Hotel in Quanzhou that was being used to house seventy people in isolation has collapsed. Fucking hell.


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

scifisam said:


> ls being closed certainly is one of the potential routes to take, but when, where and why is the complicated question. All of them, now, after a single death, with most areas having no known positive tests, is likely to cause more problems than it solves.



I am not disagreeing with your actual points, but I feel pedantically bound to say that its two known deaths in the UK.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

I just saw an American woman who is on the cruise liner stuck off the California coast say something along the lines of my god will look after me. All I could think of was what a plank!


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 7, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I just saw an American woman who is on the cruise liner stuck off the California coast say something along the lines of my god will look after me. All I could think of was what a plank!



God loves her so much he's bumped her up the queue to meet him. Flawless logic.


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

phillm said:


> Looks like it arrived in Italy at the end of December.
> 
> _At the end of December, an uncommon number of pneumonia cases arrived at the hospital of Codogno in northern Italy, the head of the emergency ward, Stefano Paglia, told the newspaper La Repubblica. Some of these patients could carry the coronavirus, but doctors treated them as typical winter diseases.
> 
> ...



That article leaps from one subject to another, its a shame this bit wasnt discussed more. I wish I could read Italian, I will see what I can find with machine translation but it isnt easy.

Something may be getting misconstrued.....

With a previously unseen outbreak of a novel disease, it is usually down to clinical features that stick out, or sheer number of cases, to actually trigger the alarm. Since so many respiratory diseases have similar symptoms, its often the latter, along with testing negative for other explanations, perhaps combined with failure of patients to respond to treatments that normally have a better success.

And I am someone who remains flexible in my thinking about timescales. I dont like to rule out the possibility that cases were missed all over the place in periods earlier than people would generally think possible.

So yes, I'm going to take note when things like that are said. And even accounting for Italys population demographics and possibly quite large variations in surveillance and testing in other countries, Italy does appear to be further along in terms of their own epidemic than most other places in europe so far.

But we can use the numbers from a later period to work backwards to approximate likely starting points. I havent dont this for Italy, but if there was an outbreak much earlier there that lead to notable levels of pneumonia by the end of December, I dont see how it would then have taken so long since then for them to end up in the current situation in terms of number of hospitalisations and deaths.

Therefore without more data, I intend to back off from reading too much into those comments. Especially since I have made a brief attempt to find other sources for comments by Stefano Paglia, and got this:









						En24 News
					

ALL News




					en24.news
				






> Why then did the Codogno hospital prove to be the outbreak of Covid-19?
> “In the area, the coronavirus, without being able to be detected, had been circulating since at least January. By the end of December, anticipating the winter overcrowding plan, I had increased the beds of the intensive short observation to 18. The general practitioners recorded a boom in pneumonia: we prepared without waiting for funding. ”



This might not be intending to imply that the 'boon in pneuomonia' was Covid-19 related at all, or it might, its really hard to tell, and there is no explicit detail about exactly what date the 'boom' began. And from that version of his comments, it would be better to say January than December. There are plenty of other reasons to expect to have a bunch of pneumonia cases turning up at that time of year and to need to quickly respond by adding capacity. I dont really want to have to try to find flu & pneuomonia data for that period in Italy right now, but thats where I would be trying to look if I was intent on checking this stuff to the best of my ability.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 7, 2020)

sihhi said:


> It wasn't forced in China, doesn't need to be forced. They don't need to shipped around the country, why on earth would they? They could just aswell _*go across the street*, _providing there was someone willing and able to look after them.



You were comparing it to the blitz evacuations, not saying people should send their kids to people across the road. So now we're back to the scenario where kids are travelling around their towns on a daily basis and mixing with other kids, because in reality most people don't have someone literally across the street to look after their kids. Kids would still be moving around and mixing with other kids and wider families. It wouldn't be any better than closing all the schools.

Countries with multi-generational households can cope with this better than we can. But most people here don't have a non-working grandparent or auntie (etc) who can take over childcare for several weeks in their own home.


----------



## lazythursday (Mar 7, 2020)

scifisam said:


> You were comparing it to the blitz evacuations, not saying people should send their kids to people across the road. So now we're back to the scenario where kids are travelling around their towns on a daily basis and mixing with other kids, because in reality most people don't have someone literally across the street to look after their kids. Kids would still be moving around and mixing with other kids and wider families. It wouldn't be any better than closing all the schools.
> 
> Countries with multi-generational households can cope with this better than we can. But most people here don't have a non-working grandparent or auntie (etc) who can take over childcare for several weeks in their own home.


All the evidence shows that closing schools helps massively. Some kids might still meet but it's hardly the same as cramming hundreds into a building together all day.


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

scifisam said:


> You were comparing it to the blitz evacuations, not saying people should send their kids to people across the road. So now we're back to the scenario where kids are travelling around their towns on a daily basis and mixing with other kids, because in reality most people don't have someone literally across the street to look after their kids. Kids would still be moving around and mixing with other kids and wider families. It wouldn't be any better than closing all the schools.
> 
> Countries with multi-generational households can cope with this better than we can. But most people here don't have a non-working grandparent or auntie (etc) who can take over childcare for several weeks in their own home.


 
That's where my fictional redeployed 30k Brexit civil servants reinforced by local volunteers liaise with councils to provide on the ground support for those that need it. There must be millions crying out for support and a massive army of volunteers ready to help if asked and co-ordinated.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 7, 2020)

lazythursday said:


> All the evidence shows that closing schools helps massively. Some kids might still meet but it's hardly the same as cramming hundreds into a building together all day.



Of course closing a school where there's a potential outbreak is a good idea, and that's what's happening. But he was talking about closing all the schools in the whole country (and he's not the only one - it's a common topic elsewhere). I think anyone who doesn't realise what a massive deal that would be is being massively naive. It's not like school holidays, because you can plan for that, and part of the plan usually includes kids going to holiday clubs while their parents work.


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

Maybe some people dont understand what a big deal that level of school closures would be. But maybe some other people dont yet understand how big a deal this virus is, and how life-changing our response to it is likely to become.

I suppose I am expecting a response that ramps up, so perhaps first we will get schools closed in particular regions, depending on what the epidemic is like geographically here. And then doing that across the whole nation at the same time would be saved for a very particular period if things got to that point.

Italy ordered the closure of all schools and universities last Wednesday. What are people expecting that will allow the UK to avoid having to do the same at some point?


----------



## scifisam (Mar 7, 2020)

Yes, and from the BBC: 

"Maybe they've done it to protect the older teachers," says Malvina, "since the children are still mixing out of school.

"It doesn't really make sense - but we accept it and will do it for the community."

It won't even necessarily protect many teachers, since they'll be the ones off work, so a lot of them probably end up looking after kids in their own homes anyway.

At least in schools you can keep an eye on symptoms, enforce rules about handwashing, and keep the building clean, and the kids would be spending most of their day away from some of the most vulnerable people. Send the kids home, and have it arranged like this, the kids are still mixing, the homes are normal homes that are harder to keep clean, and elderly and vulnerable people are mixing with them too unless they're locked in their rooms while the kids run rampage in the kitchen.


----------



## Plumdaff (Mar 7, 2020)

While I understand why schools may have to close for periods in many areas, we also need to factor in that many families can't afford to feed themselves without school dinners, breakfast clubs etc. It's a disgrace, yes, that this is the case, but it's a fact, and how will those families be supported if their school shuts?

I'm not impressed by our local plans so far. In essence the plan is to shut everything but emergency mh services. The problem with that is a/without other services, there'll be more emergencies over time, b/ if emergency centres are the only place to get mh care, that's where everyone will go c/we know people with serious mh problems are more likely to have physical health problems but we're going to withdraw all but emergency support for those people? I had hoped we'd be thinking more creatively about telesupport and triage, but that doesn't seem to be considered.


----------



## lazythursday (Mar 7, 2020)

scifisam said:


> Yes, and from the BBC:
> 
> "Maybe they've done it to protect the older teachers," says Malvina, "since the children are still mixing out of school.
> 
> ...


That's just one person's opinion. Have a read of this twitter thread about the science of this:


----------



## Thora (Mar 7, 2020)

scifisam said:


> Yes, and from the BBC:
> 
> "Maybe they've done it to protect the older teachers," says Malvina, "since the children are still mixing out of school.
> 
> ...


The average home is much cleaner, much more likely to have adequate soap and children are much more likely to be supervised washing their hands than schools ime.


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

scifisam said:


> Yes, and from the BBC:
> 
> "Maybe they've done it to protect the older teachers," says Malvina, "since the children are still mixing out of school.
> 
> ...



Its a numbers game. Like with vaccination, people think of it in terms of personal protection but its also really about affecting the overall transmissibility of the disease.

Almost every measure they could take has downsides and areas which could be somewhat counterproductive. That wont stop them doing some of these things if, when the numbers are crunched, the positives are still supposed to outweigh the negatives. 

In this case, they are much more interested in stopping the spread between households than stopping the spread within a household. And even when some kids still go out and play and mix with eachother, less do, and with less kids, than if they were at school. And some proportion of adults will stay at home more when the kids are off school. These things can still be difference makers even if there are many cases where these ideals dont end up applying.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 7, 2020)

Thora said:


> The average home is much cleaner, much more likely to have adequate soap and children are much more likely to be supervised washing their hands than schools ime.



Some are (schools tend to be very clean though so I'd be amazed if the average home was cleaner than them). The average home can't be scoured down at the end of the day like schools can though. And if they've got half a dozen unexpected kids there for weeks on end it'll get harder to keep those homes clean.

Of course presumably all these people will be taking on this extra childcare for free, too.


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

Thora said:


> The average home is much cleaner, much more likely to have adequate soap and children are much more likely to be supervised washing their hands than schools ime.



And all sorts of institutional outbreaks in the weeks ahead will sadly underline this and related points. Anywhere that lots of people gather and come and go, especially when fully indoors, is a place that has the routine potential to be part of the problem in this battle, even if its also part of the solution at the same time such as hospitals.


----------



## Thora (Mar 7, 2020)

I guess it's different if schools are doing a special pandemic deep clean, but most schools and nurseries are pretty filthy and the end of day clean is a quick surface wipe down and hoover.


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

Have we had this latest development from Italy yet? I lost track a bit.









						Italy set to quarantine whole of Lombardy due to coronavirus
					

Government’s draft decree would impose fines on anyone caught entering or leaving northern region




					www.theguardian.com
				






> The Italian government is set to place the region of Lombardy, in the north of the country, in lockdown as it battles to contain the spread of the coronavirus. A draft decree would extend the quarantined areas, so-called “red-zones”, telling people not to enter or leave the region.





> Italian authorities announced that a new decree containing draconian measures would be approved later on Saturday. The decree will include imposing fines on anyone caught entering or leaving the region of Lombardy, the worst-affected region, until 3 April. People will be allowed in and out only on the most serious grounds.
> 
> Rome is also considering prolonging the closure of schools across the country until 3 April, while major sporting events, such as Serie A football games, will be played behind closed doors.


----------



## pesh (Mar 7, 2020)

.


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

I did some crappy machine translation on an article about the Italian decree:









						Stretta del governo, Lombardia e 14 province in isolamento. Conte: "Cambiare lo stile di vita". Speranza: "Pugno duro contro gli irresponsabili"
					

Un nuovo provvedimento del governo stabilisce una zona "arancione" con misure più rigorose. Spostamenti bloccati, permessi solo in caso di eme…




					www.repubblica.it
				






> The new national emergency containment measures have been defined . In article 1 of the draft of the new government decree, which should be launched this evening, there is a ban on entry and exit from Lombardy and 11 other provinces, and the extension of the controlled areas to Piedmont and Emilia-Romagna. In detail, the provinces that have become "red zone" are the following: Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, Rimini, Pesaro and Urbino, Venice, Padua, Treviso, Asti and Alessandria. All new provisions are valid from March 8th until April 3rd.





> The decree also establishes the closure of all gyms, swimming pools, spas and wellness centers in the areas just mentioned. Outdoor sports competitions are allowed only behind closed doors. Shopping centers will have to be closed but only on the weekend. Instead, museums, cultural centers and ski resorts are closed. Schools will also continue to be closed until April 3. Contests are also suspended.





> Civil and religious ceremonies, including funeral ceremonies, are suspended. All organized events are also suspended, as well as events in public or private places, including those of a cultural, recreational, sporting and religious nature, even if held in closed places but open to the public, such as large events, cinemas, theaters, pubs, schools dance halls, game rooms, betting rooms and bingo halls, discos and similar places.





> Bars and restaurants may remain open but with the manager's obligation to enforce the interpersonal safety distance of at least one meter, with the sanction of suspension of the activity in case of violation.





> Frontline doctors: ordinary leave of health and technical personnel, as well as staff whose activities are necessary to manage the activities required by crisis units set up at regional level, are suspended. Furthermore, the access of relatives and visitors to hospitals is limited to only a few cases.


----------



## phillm (Mar 7, 2020)

Italy graphed  is a straight parabolic. Milan now set to be  locked down. 




__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

I think Britain does not have to follow the path of Italy. The beginnings of the infection in the two countries is very different.

It seems to me that the virus got quite established in Italy before the state realised and started testing for it while in Britain we have been testing widely while we have a small outbreak mainly from people infected abroad.

I doubt Italy is still doing contact tracing - what would be the point now?

But in Britain it is still our method.


----------



## tommers (Mar 7, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I think Britain does not have to follow the path of Italy. The beginnings of the infection in the two countries is very different.
> 
> It seems to me that the virus got quite established in Italy before the state realised and started testing for it while in Britain we have been testing widely while we have a small outbreak mainly from people infected abroad.
> 
> ...



Somebody official was saying there was "slim to none" chance of avoiding an epidemic in this country. 

I don't know who it was obviously. I was driving bruv!


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

tommers said:


> Somebody official was saying there was "slim to none" chance of avoiding an epidemic in this country.
> ..


Yes that seems to be the official line. 

Perhaps it is true fact or perhaps they want to motivate us to take the precautions they are promoting - hand washing and the like.


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

Well at least this explains why you keep wondering why we havent imposed more travel restrictions. It sounds like you think we've spotted most cases here and that the main threat is still just from infections being freshly imported. As opposed to government etc who have moved on to assuming that quite enough of the virus has already got here and spread, that when combined with the picture seen elsewhere about transmissibility, infection doubling time etc, that an epidemic here is inevitable.

No matter the name of the containment phase, the level of diligence employed by this country was not actually intended to prevent an epidemic of a virus with the characteristics this one has turned out to have. It might have been enough to contain a less spreadable illness. For a virus with the reproduction rates as high as the ones estimated so far for this coronavirus, containment phase stuff was only realistically designed to slow things down, to find cases to study, stuff like that.

If somehow this country does not experience (and crucially detect) something similar to Italy in the weeks ahead, then it means that some things we thought we had learnt about this virus are incorrect, or at least missing some crucial detail.


----------



## pesh (Mar 7, 2020)

press release issued just now by the nursing home in Seattle. horrible situation.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

Yes I do still question the lack of travel restrictions early in the process the lack of which I think was an error.

However we are still contact tracing which I see as hopeful. 

If an epidemic is inevitable in Britain we are in a bad place because so far the infections are spread all over the place which means containment as achieved in Hubei might not be possible for us.

What would be the point of containing London and Enfield if the level of infections in both were equally high?

Anyhow, we have had just two reported deaths which if we are to follow Italy puts us quite a few days behind them. 

I do hold out a hope that our earlier testing coupled with the high proportion of people being infected abroad may indicate a different disease profile.

And there do seem to be differing experiences around the world, Iran and Italy seem to have been strongly hit while some Asian countries in proximity to China seem to have escaped such big impacts. Are we seeing Iranian levels of infection in South Korea, Singapore, even Hong Kong for that matter?


----------



## elbows (Mar 7, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes I do still question the lack of travel restrictions early in the process the lack of which I think was an error.



I'm not on about your attitude towards stuff earlier in the process, I'm on about your recent and current calls for travel restrictions, such as earlier this evening            #3,096         And I'm not defending what has and has not been done so far, I'm just explaining why its been done and what their thinking is.

I make no exact predictions in terms of where the locations of spread happen, or what measures will be implemented, but I suppose it is standard to anticipate that epidemics tend to involve local and regional timing variations.

Its also a mistake to think of lockdowns only in terms of preventing spread to other locations. Its very much also to reduce the spread within the location that has been locked down.


----------



## weepiper (Mar 7, 2020)

Where are all these women just sitting around waiting to look after other people's children? The only women who can afford to be SAHMs these days aren't going to do it. Everyone else is at work.


----------



## Santino (Mar 7, 2020)

If I were Prime Minister I would simply get volunteers to look after loads of children.


----------



## Humberto (Mar 7, 2020)

Santino said:


> If I were Prime Minister I would simply get volunteers to look after loads of children.



Luckily it seems not harsh on young uns


----------



## weltweit (Mar 7, 2020)

elbows said:


> I'm not on about your attitude towards stuff earlier in the process, I'm on about your recent and current calls for travel restrictions, such as earlier this evening            #3,096         And I'm not defending what has and has not been done so far, I'm just explaining why its been done and what their thinking is.


Perhaps the time for travel restrictions might be coming to an end because if we're just as infected as other places incoming individuals will hardly add to our level of infection.

But I don't believe that, I believe we should be restricting travel into the country from hotspots and probably checking temperatures at airports as well, what harm could it do?


> I make no exact predictions in terms of where the locations of spread happen, or what measures will be implemented, but I suppose it is standard to anticipate that epidemics tend to involve local and regional timing variations.


I accept that that might be what is happening, however do you take my point from my last post that the epidemics in Italy and Iran seem to be more serious than those in Singapore Hong Kong and South Korea?


> Its also a mistake to think of lockdowns only in terms of preventing spread to other locations. Its very much also to reduce the spread within the location that has been locked down.


It will be interesting to see what Italy achieves in the northern region that they're locking down now.


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)

Since we have an entire subforum for this subject now, should we start threads for some of the subjects that have ended up in this thread so far?

Maybe Italy should have its own thread, given what has been reported this evening, as the BBC puts it:



> Italy is set to lock down at least 10 million people in the region of Lombardy and 11 provinces in the north and the east of the country.
> 
> The mandatory quarantine will last until early April.











						Coronavirus: Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people
					

A quarter of the population is in lockdown as Italy takes drastic action to control Covid-19.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




I'm crap at starting threads myself, and I'd rather someone with some link with or particular knowledge of Italy start that one going, since all I'm going to be abler to do is parrot what the press says and maybe occasionally add some opinion of mine or some pandemic context to some matter in particular.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 8, 2020)

Incidently can anyone remember that link I posted to a site called something like worldometer, it had a corona virus section showing infections around the world? I've been looking for it but I can't remember the link.


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I accept that that might be what is happening, however do you take my point from my last post that the epidemics in Italy and Iran seem to be more serious than those in Singapore Hong Kong and South Korea?



South Korea does not belong on that list, its having a tough time. 

Singapore etc are like China to me in the sense that various sorts of quite potent social distancing and contact tracing have been engaged in, and I will wait to see with interest what happens next in those places. Also I have to back off on certain tempting assumptions because the picture shown by data in every county is of unknown quality to me, and in no country is it likely that the number of confirmed cases is close to the actual number of cases. I dont know if the numbers from Singapore properly tell the story in SIngapore, they might, but there might be a dimension that is not apparent right now.

So yes, it will be interesting to see what happens in the areas of Italy in the weeks ahead. Iran has started doing more and more extreme measures too, and the quality of some of their numbers should be improving since test capacity and response got ramped up there via partners such as WHO.


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)

Oh the BBC updated the Italy story to say 16 million people instead of 11 million.









						Coronavirus: Northern Italy quarantines 16 million people
					

A quarter of the population is in lockdown as Italy takes drastic action to control Covid-19.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> Italy is set to lock down at least 16 million people in the region of Lombardy and in 11 other provinces in the north and east of the country.
> 
> The mandatory quarantine will last until early April.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 8, 2020)

On test capacity I could have sworn I heard Boris Johnson saying that he had invested government funds into the development or potential development of a faster test for this virus. 

I only heard it once and haven't heard anything about it since. Still if a faster and cheaper test were available it could make tracking this virus much easier.

However I suppose if it was doable perhaps the Chinese would have done it already.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> On test capacity I could have sworn I heard Boris Johnson saying that he had invested government funds into the development or potential development of a faster test for this virus.
> 
> I only heard it once and haven't heard anything about it since. Still if a faster and cheaper test were available it could make tracking this virus much easier.




How can you believe a single word he says though?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 8, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> How can you believe a single word he says though?


Well I would certainly hope he isn't making s*** up on the fly about a subject as serious is this!


----------



## weltweit (Mar 8, 2020)

elbows on your idea of a thread about Italy, the only way to know if a thread will work is to start it and then see.. it is always tricky to know in advance.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well I would certainly hope he isn't making s*** up on the fly about a subject as serious is this!


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well I would certainly hope he isn't making s*** up on the fly about a subject as serious is this!



What like Matt Hancock saying that they were in talks with supermarkets?

Like 40, 000 extra nurses?

40 new hospitals?

How many new police?

How many kids does he have?

Oven ready Brexit?

Plan for social care?


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 8, 2020)




----------



## Part-timah (Mar 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Incidently can anyone remember that link I posted to a site called something like worldometer, it had a corona virus section showing infections around the world? I've been looking for it but I can't remember the link.











						Coronavirus Update (Live): 129,471,257 Cases and 2,828,154 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## weltweit (Mar 8, 2020)

Well Rutita1 the trouble is I haven't heard any of the established UK experts talking about this initiative, the only person I heard mention it was Johnson.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well Rutita1 the trouble is I haven't heard any of the established UK experts talking about this initiative, the only person I heard mention it was Johnson.




Yes that is the trouble. Remember all the doctors/health professional/nurses speaking out about the crippled NHS? I believe them, Johnson still lied and continues to.


----------



## tommers (Mar 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well I would certainly hope he isn't making s*** up on the fly about a subject as serious is this!


Hahahaha ah.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 8, 2020)

Weltweit you're so sweetly naive sometimes. 



Rutita1 said:


> What like Matt Hancock saying that they were in talks with supermarkets?
> 
> Like 40, 000 extra nurses?
> 
> ...



Or shaking hands with people with coronavirus in a hospital that doesn't have any? Trying for a Princess Di moment, and failing.


----------



## spring-peeper (Mar 8, 2020)

Recently, I've see articles about facebook, ebay and other social media cracking down on ads relating relating to the virus.  Too much false information is being spread using these mediums.

Currently, my facebook timeline has this post.  Over the past several hours, it is second post I see.



> *Help Prevent the Spread of Coronavirus*
> 
> When it comes to health, everyone wants what's best for themselves and their families.
> See the latest information from the Public Health Agency of Canada so you can help prevent the spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19).
> ...



I hope this is a way to help us keep up to date.


(not everyone in Canada is reading this thread, so I think it is a good idea.)


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)

More on the Australian doctor who went to work for days and then tested positive. His side of the story is an even better fit with the whole 'this is why the virus is so easy to spread and why its hard to slow this significantly unless a situation not resembling normality is created'.


----------



## bimble (Mar 8, 2020)

Italy measures are making me scared for my parents again. They live in Switzerland just the other side of the border from some of the bits now being locked down and have been in and out of the ‘red zone’ several times recently for totally non essential reasons. They’ve been surprisingly blasé about it for people in their 70s. My mum said their friends are avoiding them which I thinks understandable . 
This lockdown will wake them up and will also probably cause all semblance of normal life to grind to a halt where they live (Ticino) which relies massively on Italians crossing the border every morning to work in Switzerland then going home again each day.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 8, 2020)

Yeah Ticino is gonna be pretty fucked if the border is closed. I don't know how enforceable the quarantine is going to be along the hundreds of roads which enter Lombardy from Piedmont and Emilia but surely the border crossing at Como - Chiasso will be quite easy to control. 

This is all escalating way faster than people are psychologically prepared for. People cramming onto the last trains leaving Lombardy last night - its like Children of Men


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 8, 2020)

I see, according to the stats on Wiki, that in the last 24 hours the number of new cases in the UK (46) has now overtaken the number of new cases reported in China (41)  (both nowhere near Italy (+1000)). Maybe we have to take the China numbers with a pinch of salt but it seems to be working whatever they're doing, of course their overall number of people infected and hence the number dying is still high.


----------



## bimble (Mar 8, 2020)

The state of things in America is looking seriously grim.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 8, 2020)

Indeliblelink said:


> I see, according to the stats on Wiki, that in the last 24 hours the number of new cases in the UK (46) has now overtaken the number of new cases reported in China (41)  (both nowhere near Italy (+1000)). Maybe we have to take the China numbers with a pinch of salt but it seems to be working whatever they're doing, of course their overall number of people infected and hence the number dying is still high.



Let’s hope the lessons from China have been learned by the West!


----------



## Flavour (Mar 8, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Let’s hope the lessons from China have been learned by the West!



They haven't. That's plain as day. Hope has nothing to do with it.


----------



## andysays (Mar 8, 2020)

lazythursday said:


> Surely it's not beyond the realms of possibility to close most schools but keep one school open in an area to cater for kids of key workers? Or something similar. Most would be able to stay with one of their friends anyway surely?


Something like this will have to happen sooner or later, I think.

And it would be better to start planning for and even implementing it now than once the virus has had another month to spread through the population.


----------



## Kaka Tim (Mar 8, 2020)

flew into manchester airport last night from cyprus. was surprised that there seemed to be no warnings/advice/instructions wrt to corona virus. also - no hand sanitisers in and out of the control areas - like the bit where you scan your passport into the machine or anywhere else where lots of different people put their hands.


----------



## pesh (Mar 8, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Let’s hope the lessons from China have been learned by the West!


UK people: I can't believe the Chinese encouraged 40,000 people to get together for a meal when they knew they were dealing with the outbreak of a deadly virus... 
also UK people: Come to our mega dog show, we have hand sanitiser.


----------



## rookwood (Mar 8, 2020)

pesh said:


> UK people: I can't believe the Chinese encouraged 40,000 people to get together for a meal when they knew they were dealing with the outbreak of a deadly virus...
> also UK people: Come to our mega dog show, we have hand sanitiser.



Yeah. The Cheltenham Festival is the one that gets me. Over 200k people over several days, with 130k using the train station...people travelling from across the world.

Still the gambling industry is a big deal. Play on, say the government.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 8, 2020)

It’s obvious that there is no plan for the U.K. - yet on yer own here


----------



## LDC (Mar 8, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> It’s obvious that there is no plan for the U.K. - yet on yer own here



I disagree, there's quite clearly plenty of planning going on. See the CMO Dr. Chris Witty presenting to Parliament about them for example. I think it's possible to criticize them on various grounds (and it might be even more so to do retrospectively) but saying there's no plan for the UK is not true.


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)

There are lots of plans. What I would criticise most is attitudes during normal times, austerity, etc, which means various resources in short supply before we even start, health system that teeters at the best of times.

'yer on yer own here' would be one aspect of some plans - if you are on your own then you wont be infecting anyone! But in many other senses, a pandemic is exactly the time that we need to demonstrate that there is such a thing as society. I see a pandemic edition of 'the big society' is already being planned, they are going on about protecting volunteers normal jobs so they can do their volunteering role full time during the peak of the epidemic. Red Cross etc, figures of 2-3 million people being spoken about in this context on the news last night.


----------



## LDC (Mar 8, 2020)

Went into the storeroom at work last. One FFP3 mask.

For context it's a hospital based acute medicine walk in/walk out department that has about 10 staff on at any one time, out of about 30 total. We see about 40-50 patients a day. (E2a: we're an entrance point for another department as well, so people walk through us to get there. What with that and patients bringing family and friends with them I'd hazard a guess that 200-300 people have direct contact every day with the surroundings and the people that work or are patients here.)


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 8, 2020)

rookwood said:


> Yeah. The Cheltenham Festival is the one that gets me. Over 200k people over several days, with 130k using the train station...people travelling from across the world.



130k using the train station is peanuts compared to the 5 million passenger journeys on the tube every day.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 8, 2020)

London tube means the virus load will be borne / force contained by us in London. 

Mass convergence and then returning home from all over the country means the infection will be spread even quicker to new parts of the country.

It's a bad idea authoritative medical publication the Lancet said it clearly

_So far, evidence suggests that the colossal public health efforts of the Chinese Government have saved thousands of lives. High-income countries, now facing their own outbreaks, must take reasoned risks and act more decisively. They must abandon their fears of the negative short-term public and economic consequences that may follow from restricting public freedoms as part of more assertive infection control measures. _


----------



## sihhi (Mar 8, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Went into the storeroom at work last. One FFP3 mask.



The whole point of the delay stage was to stop this happening too soon before masks could be replenished. But the delay stage has ended before planned.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 8, 2020)

sihhi said:


> London tube means the virus load will be borne / force contained by us in London.



You are joking, right? 



> Mass convergence and then returning home from all over the country means the infection will be spread even quicker to new parts of the country.



Like the mass convergence of commuters into London, and then returning home every day? People commute from here in Worthing to London, despite it taking about 90 minutes each way, as do people from Taunton in Somerset, which only takes a few minutes longer. Others commute in & out on a less frequent basis from right across the UK & beyond.  



> It's a bad idea authoritative medical publication the Lancet said it clearly
> 
> _*So far*, evidence suggests that the colossal public health efforts of the Chinese Government have saved thousands of lives. High-income countries, now facing their own outbreaks, must take reasoned risks and act more decisively. They must abandon their fears of the negative short-term public and economic consequences that may follow from restricting public freedoms as part of more assertive infection control measures. _




The 'so far' bit is actually the most important part of that paragraph, because no one knows what will happen once the lock-down finally comes to an end, which currently is due on the 10th March, and if it takes off again.


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)

From BBC live updates page:



> The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
> 
> "We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
> 
> ...





			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-51789355
		


And some dodgy machine translation of an article about what the Italian Society of Anesthesia said:









						Coronavirus, Associazione di anestesisti: “Limite di età per i ricoveri: necessari dei criteri etici condivisi”
					

Una relazione tecnica della Società italiana di anestesia, Siaarti, suggerisce quindici punti adatti ad una “medicina delle catastrofi” &nbs…




					www.repubblica.it
				






> FIFTEEN ethical principles for admission and discharge of patients in the time of Coronavirus. Knowing that the Italian healthcare facility may not be able to accommodate them all and therefore will have to make choices.





> Among the 15 extraordinary criteria, which concern all intensive patients and not only patients infected with Covid-19 infection, we read that it may be necessary to limit the age of entry for example: reserve resources that could be very scarce for those who it has first of all more probabilities of survival and secondly to whom can have more years of life saved.



UK equivalent was the talk in the press in recent weeks of the 'three wise men' system.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 8, 2020)

The 'lock-down' is nowhere near ending on March 10 I don't know where info is from. It's a region by region shift down in controls. Shandong being the latest to go from top-level to second top

If it takes off there once again, then strict measures will be-applied again, I would imagine, back to top level.

Your point about the tube I take, all the more reason for such commuters to be shifted to telework first and everyone else possible too, and all major events to be stopped or delayed immediately.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 8, 2020)

elbows said:


> From BBC live updates page:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Bye bye Tory voters.

Here a US article that has relevance here too, gog workers with no sick pay:https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/08/uk/coronavirus-gig-economy-gbr-intl/index.html


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 8, 2020)

sihhi said:


> The 'lock-down' is nowhere near ending on March 10 I don't know where info is from. It's a region by region shift down in controls. Shandong being the latest to go from top-level to second top



The biggest lock-down, and most important one, is in Hubei province, which is the one I was referring to, the last extension was on 20th Feb. until 10th March.


----------



## rookwood (Mar 8, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> 130k using the train station is peanuts compared to the 5 million passenger journeys on the tube every day.



Fair point.


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)

Leaked coronavirus plan to quarantine 16m sparks chaos in Italy
					

Thousands tried to flee south after decree to confine people until 3 April was revealed




					www.theguardian.com
				






> “What happened with the news leak has caused many people to try to escape, causing the opposite effect of what the decree is trying to achieve,” said Roberto Burioni, a professor of microbiology and virology at the Vita-Salute San Raffaele University in Milan. “Unfortunately some of those who fled will be infected with the disease.”



I'm starting to get the sense that it will actually be fairly typical for news of large lockdowns of large population centres to either leak some hours in advance, or to be seen coming.

Mind you, as I've said before the purpose of such lockdowns is not just to stop the spread going from there to elsewhere, its to dampen the spread within the area thats being locked down. And the sight of some people fleeing in the final hours is still nothing like as alarming as people coming and going in a normal way every day.


----------



## Brainaddict (Mar 8, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> flew into manchester airport last night from cyprus. was surprised that there seemed to be no warnings/advice/instructions wrt to corona virus. also - no hand sanitisers in and out of the control areas - like the bit where you scan your passport into the machine or anywhere else where lots of different people put their hands.


I'm a bit surprised at this point that there aren't notices and announcements in all the public transport internal to the UK too tbh. Just travelled by train and by bus and there's nothing to even encourage people to wash their hands when they get home. It's one thing trying to avoid panic, but there is such a thing as not taking enough precautions.


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Mar 8, 2020)

elbows said:


> Leaked coronavirus plan to quarantine 16m sparks chaos in Italy
> 
> 
> Thousands tried to flee south after decree to confine people until 3 April was revealed
> ...


Yeah, I don't think the fact that some people will flee is that important to the strategy, as long as it's not a mass migration. It's something you have to take into account but it doesn't contradict the point. By the time you are doing lockdowns you're operating on statistical principles anyway rather than trying for a perfect seal.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 8, 2020)

Italy deaths up 133 to 366.

Cases approaching 7,500 which given death rate seems obviously low (hopefully anyway if that makes sense as death rate is 5% roughly)

Bleak


----------



## phillm (Mar 8, 2020)

For all China's faults (and the fact that this is state-sponsored propaganda) what shines through in this video and what WHO fulsomely applauds that once the scale of the problem was brutally revealed they approached the problem with ruthless efficiency and organization. I fear that we won't have the resources or the discipline to follow likewise but I'm ready to volunteer to do my bit whatever that might be.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 8, 2020)

Dan U said:


> Italy deaths up 133 to 366.
> 
> Cases approaching 7,500 which given death rate seems obviously low (hopefully anyway if that makes sense as death rate is 5% roughly)
> 
> Bleak


Isn't Italy quite an ageing population though?


----------



## Dan U (Mar 8, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Isn't Italy quite an ageing population though?



Yes that could be a factor. 

Our population isn't exactly sprightly in the UK (haven't looked up comparators though)


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 8, 2020)

Dan U said:


> Yes that could be a factor.
> 
> Our population isn't exactly sprightly in the UK (haven't looked up comparators though)


Neither is the membership of this board


----------



## Dan U (Mar 8, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> Neither is the membership of this board



It used to be 😂


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)

Here are some population pyramids for select countries.










						Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100
					

WORLD - 2019




					www.populationpyramid.net


----------



## marshall (Mar 8, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Isn't Italy quite an ageing population though?



Second oldest population after Japan, I'm reading.


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 8, 2020)

Dan U said:


> Yes that could be a factor.
> 
> Our population isn't exactly sprightly in the UK (haven't looked up comparators though)



Age is one of those ticking time bombs throughout the developed countries.

Education, birth control and let’s be frank here a contempt for childcare and policies keeping the youth poor mean there’s less kids.

Which is why our governments are so open towards immigrants


----------



## phillm (Mar 8, 2020)

In the world that's coming, I fear for the future of bowls and bridge.


----------



## lizzieloo (Mar 8, 2020)

phillm said:


> For all China's faults (and the fact that this is state-sponsored propaganda) what shines through in this video and what WHO fulsomely applauds that once the scale of the problem was brutally revealed they approached the problem with ruthless efficiency and organization. I fear that we won't have the resources or the discipline to follow likewise but I'm ready to volunteer to do my bit whatever that might be.




That Channel is state sponsored, (eta, you said that, sorry) I saw that documentary a few days ago and was impressed, but figured that it'll be a few steps away, at least, from the truth. It was the chap I'm full hazmat with sweat pouring down the inside of his goggles saying how happy he was that did it for me.


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 8, 2020)

phillm said:


> In the world that's coming, I fear for the future of bowls and bridge.



In a world where Boris is PM there will always be money for Bridge


----------



## weltweit (Mar 8, 2020)

I see Italy is having big problems, 366 deaths and 7,375 cases. 

Is it inevitable the UK will follow suit?


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 8, 2020)

Might be a silly question but if everyone now knows to avoid sneezing people or sneezing on others, and washing your hands regularly is good, how come it's still spreading like wildfire?


----------



## Supine (Mar 8, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Might be a silly question but if everyone now knows to avoid sneezing people or sneezing on others, and washing your hands regularly is good, how come it's still spreading like wildfire?



When you see results published its for people who got infected a week or two ago.


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)

And there are still a gazillion opportunities for it to spread.

Washing hands etc is not expected to stop the spread, it just contributes to slowing the progress of the virus. It can help a tipping point of transmission be reached, but not on its own, not even close. I dont know how its factored into models, it can make a real difference, but its not a game changer on its own.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 8, 2020)

There is also surface contamination. 

Tonight I was trying to work out a way to use the motorway bogs without touching things that everybody else had touched. It wasn't possible.


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> There is also surface contamination.
> 
> Tonight I was trying to work out a way to use the motorway bogs without touching things that everybody else had touched. It wasn't possible.



Surface contamination is one of the reasons for the hand washing advice.

I havent needed to practice what order to do things in and what to touch things with yet because I am not visiting public bathrooms etc at the moment. But there is usually a way to do it in the right order that will leave you with clean hands. Especially where taps are configured to be controlled without touching, or with touching using a body part such as an elbow, etc.


----------



## Sprocket. (Mar 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> There is also surface contamination.
> 
> Tonight I was trying to work out a way to use the motorway bogs without touching things that everybody else had touched. It wasn't possible.


Use a tissue to touch handles and switches. Elbows and feet to push doors open. For soap dispensers use your tissue holding hand to pump soap onto your other hand.


----------



## Thora (Mar 8, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Might be a silly question but if everyone now knows to avoid sneezing people or sneezing on others, and washing your hands regularly is good, how come it's still spreading like wildfire?


How much can you really avoid people coughing and sneezing though?  I've got a cold at the moment and was out today with my kids, one of whom has a cough and one who had a fever a few days ago, but you can't just stay at home if you have the sniffles just in case.


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)

Thora said:


> but you can't just stay at home if you have the sniffles just in case.



Thats the stage we will reach at some point, that will be the advice. Obviously altered a little to take account of certain essential professions.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 8, 2020)

I know UK exam boards are already trying to work out what happens if schools have extensive closures.


----------



## Sprocket. (Mar 8, 2020)

Because of the treatment I am currently on I have had to have my temperature checked everyday, several times. I have been told that if my temp hits 37.5 I have to ring the emergency number I have been given.
I have had it checked twice in the last hour, currently 37.7.
I am now sat waiting for someone to answer. 
Obviously not expecting it to be Coronavirus, most likely some infection but apparently sepsis is a big worry. So I do not know how people cope in isolation waiting for the results.

ETA: Results in s&n.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 8, 2020)

Wishing you all the best Sprocket. Hope you're not waiting for long and it's nothing serious.


----------



## wayward bob (Mar 8, 2020)

elbows said:


> I havent needed to practice what order to do things in and what to touch things with yet because I am not visiting public bathrooms etc at the moment.


at the risk of being overly flippant, suddenly it turns out why ASD is a superpower


----------



## wayward bob (Mar 8, 2020)

Sprocket. said:


> I have to ring the emergency number I have been given.


(internet only, contact free) <vibes>


----------



## Cid (Mar 8, 2020)

wayward bob said:


> at the risk of being overly flippant, suddenly it turns out why ASD is a superpower



Well, unless one of your main stims is rubbing your eyes...   at self.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 8, 2020)

wayward bob said:


> at the risk of being overly flippant, suddenly it turns out why ASD is a superpower



Double edged sword tbh. My son is 7 and has ASD. In 21 days we are due to fly to Melbourne via Singapore to see my wife's family. Its a trip he has done 3 times but we are now on full media blackout when he is about as the anxiety levels are building (he is not the only one tbf)

I've not shown him stats yet but I may have too to avoid a full meltdown at the gate at Heathrow, assuming we get that far.

It doesn't help that one of his special interests is planes and airports, so we are already well versed in which planes we are flying, what the airports are like etc

Tonight, for example, we had to find evidence of Singapore Airport being quiet (not hard) 

I know its a proper first world problem but it feels very real!


----------



## wayward bob (Mar 8, 2020)

yeah, having posted previous flippant comment i've been thinking about my mate w/ocd and thinking wtf bob?


----------



## wayward bob (Mar 8, 2020)

we did our first family trip abroad (sweden) a couple of years back. kid1 coped but just barely. had lined up something as unthreatening as poss (it felt at the time) for this summer. to milan


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)

Never mind, a pandemic offers lots of new ways to put our foot in it or say things that are true and false at the same time. Much of it probably needs to be said anyway, gotta let those sentiments out, well I know I do otherwise I would explode.


----------



## elbows (Mar 8, 2020)




----------



## Dan U (Mar 8, 2020)

elbows said:


> Never mind, a pandemic offers lots of new ways to put our foot in it or say things that are true and false at the same time. Much of it probably needs to be said anyway, gotta let those sentiments out, well I know I do otherwise I would explode.



 This!


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> There is also surface contamination.
> 
> Tonight I was trying to work out a way to use the motorway bogs without touching things that everybody else had touched. It wasn't possible.


----------



## miss direct (Mar 8, 2020)

Just a thought but isn’t it likely that the number of cases is much higher than the official numbers? For instance, I don’t have health insurance at the moment, hate hospitals, and have close to zero faith in the health service here. So I would have to be extremely ill to go to hospital and get tested. I would just stay at home, stay in bed, and self medicate. I can’t be the only one.


----------



## lizzieloo (Mar 8, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Just a thought but isn’t it likely that the number of cases is much higher than the official numbers? For instance, I don’t have health insurance at the moment, hate hospitals, and have close to zero faith in the health service here. So I would have to be extremely ill to go to hospital and get tested. I would just stay at home, stay in bed, and self medicate. I can’t be the only one.



There will be lots of people that have Covid-19 who show no signs at all, they'll just be getting on with normal business, they won't be counted either.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 8, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections currently. It's taken 11 days to get there from the position we're in.
> 
> If you look at how they got there, their figures grew by about 40% a day for about half that time, then 20%-25% since then.
> 
> ...


Revised these figures seeing as we have a few more days worth of data:


*Date**Original (40% then 20% from 13th)**Revised (30% then 20% from 13th)*Friday, 6 March 2020163163Saturday, 7 March 2020228212Sunday, 8 March 2020319275Monday, 9 March 2020447358Tuesday, 10 March 2020626466Wednesday, 11 March 2020877605Thursday, 12 March 20201227787Friday, 13 March 20201473944Saturday, 14 March 202017671133Sunday, 15 March 202021211360Monday, 16 March 202025451631Tuesday, 17 March 202030541958Wednesday, 18 March 202036652349Thursday, 19 March 202043982819Friday, 20 March 202052773383Saturday, 21 March 202063334060Sunday, 22 March 202075994871Monday, 23 March 202091195846Tuesday, 24 March 2020109437015Wednesday, 25 March 2020131318418Thursday, 26 March 20201575810101

All the same caveats apply, etc., but these numbers put us about 13 days behind Italy.


----------



## MrSki (Mar 8, 2020)

Sprocket. said:


> Because of the treatment I am currently on I have had to have my temperature checked everyday, several times. I have been told that if my temp hits 37.5 I have to ring the emergency number I have been given.
> I have had it checked twice in the last hour, currently 37.7.
> I am now sat waiting for someone to answer.
> Obviously not expecting it to be Coronavirus, most likely some infection but apparently sepsis is a big worry. So I do not know how people cope in isolation waiting for the results.


My brother is on a chemo pump at home & I have to monitor hiss temperature regularly but only need to call the hospital if it is outside of 36.0 to 38.0. The normal range is 36.5 to 37.5 so hopefully 37.7 is nothing too serious. Good luck with it.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 9, 2020)

Ted Cruz has been in contact with an infected person. Wouldnt it be awful if the GOP crumbled?


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 9, 2020)

Cases are yet to explode in India. 39 so far: COVID-19 count reaches 39 in India


----------



## Winot (Mar 9, 2020)

Good science-based thread explaining why soap works (apologies if posted already):


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 9, 2020)

It's spreading in Italy's prison system, three prisoners have died overnight. 

* This from a live Sky News report.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 9, 2020)

Winot said:


> Good science-based thread explaining why soap works (apologies if posted already):




Good read that. Now how do I get soap in a convenient form to have in my car for use after being in shops?


----------



## baldrick (Mar 9, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Cases are yet to explode in India. 39 so far: COVID-19 count reaches 39 in India


I've said this before but I am really worried about India. There's some suggestions in the media they are taking a US approach to things (denial, testing relatively few people) and lots of people in the UK with relatives in India will fly there over the Easter holidays.

Edited to add: Wikipedia has a page on current testing numbers & volume. Suggests India has tested 4058 people (3 tests per million population - worse than the US). 









						COVID-19 testing - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org


----------



## elbows (Mar 9, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> It's spreading in Italy's prison system, three prisoners have died overnight.
> 
> * This from a live Sky News report.



I havent gone looking for that news but I know there have been prison riots (triggered by new covid-19 measures that affect prison visits) which have resulted in death. So perhaps its that, rather than death from Covid-19.

Since there is now a thread for Italy I will try not to talk about it more in this thread.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 9, 2020)

Just had a group text from work informing some customers are refusing to sign for parcels on drivers device due to coronavirus concerns.


----------



## Supine (Mar 9, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Just had a group text from work informing some customers are refusing to sign for parcels on drivers device due to coronavirus concerns.



They don't look like real signatures anyway


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 9, 2020)

Supine said:


> They don't look like real signatures anyway



Etch A Sketch.


----------



## maomao (Mar 9, 2020)

I use an entirely random scribble for pretty much any situation where I have to sign anything.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 9, 2020)

last delivery I asked him to sign for it for me because I had a particularly nasty cold I didn't want to pass on to anyone. Am thinking of using the blunt end of a pencil for future use.


----------



## elbows (Mar 9, 2020)

I just wash my hands thoroughly before the delivery turns up, and then immediately afterwards.


----------



## rookwood (Mar 9, 2020)

Government stays in contain phase.

Interesting that BBC interviewed and cited EU expert who said unequivocally UK running out of time to implement the social distancing measures - 'a few days' only left.

Government looks uninterested in doing that, having rubbished it for much of last week and the weekend.

BBC News - Coronavirus: UK to remain in 'containment' phase of response








						Coronavirus: UK to remain in 'containment' phase of response
					

Measures such as school closures will not yet be introduced, as the UK's fourth virus death is confirmed.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Wilf (Mar 9, 2020)

rookwood said:


> Government stays in contain phase.
> 
> Interesting that BBC interviewed and cited EU expert who said unequivocally UK running out of time to implement the social distancing measures - 'a few days' only left.
> 
> ...


At a guess, I'd suggest that means we are not going to see a massive rise today or that government expects to see one tomorrow (they will at least have had provisional figures for today from 7 a.m. I think).  Needless to say, what government does will be a mixture of science, politics/ideology and pure panic, but in the absence of a large increase they feel safe sticking with 'containment'.

In terms of government's response, it might be a minor issue, but Johnson just seems like a lazy bastard i.e. his preference is to do the least he/the government can get away with. That might be a mistake.

Edit: yes, 319 now for the UK.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 9, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> It's spreading in Italy's prison system, three prisoners have died overnight.
> 
> * This from a live Sky News report.



The deaths are not confirm to be from coronavirus or rioting...as far as I’ve seen.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 9, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> The deaths are not confirm to be from coronavirus or rioting...as far as I’ve seen.



See reply on the Italian thread.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 9, 2020)

the reluctance of the uk government to take drastic measures now is astonishing. mind-boggling. they KNOW what this is going to be like in 2 weeks time for them while football matches are still going ahead, schools are open... it's total madness.


----------



## Kilgore Trout (Mar 9, 2020)

I don't see how closing school helps. Kids will go out and play together, or go round to their (at higher risk) grandparents to be baby sat


----------



## Flavour (Mar 9, 2020)

ok, i thought the same as you up until a few days ago. but now i disagree. if you close the schools now, while only 1% of children are infected and give it to their grandparents, that's better than closing the schools down in 2 weeks when 15% (or whatever) of children are infected and give it to their grandparents. obviously they cannot be allowed to go out and play together.


----------



## andysays (Mar 9, 2020)

If all schools and workplaces remain open as normal, everyone is at risk of catching the virus not only through all the pupils at their kids' school, but beyond that from all the workplaces of all the other parents of all those kids, and then all the schools of all the kids of all those parents and so on.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 9, 2020)

Flavour said:


> ok, i thought the same as you up until a few days ago. but now i disagree. if you close the schools now, while only 1% of children are infected and give it to their grandparents, that's better than closing the schools down in 2 weeks when 15% (or whatever) of children are infected and give it to their grandparents. obviously they cannot be allowed to go out and play together.



Where on earth have you got the 'only 1% of children are infected' from, when we only have around 4 cases per million people?


----------



## prunus (Mar 9, 2020)

Kilgore Trout said:


> I don't see how closing school helps. Kids will go out and play together, or go round to their (at higher risk) grandparents to be baby sat



This is often mentioned, but it’s not quite right in my opinion. The important factor here is how many other people each person (each being a possible transmitter or receiver) interacts with - 300 kids hanging out in 60 groups of 5 = lower number of net total transmissions than in 10 groups of 30 (classes) or even considered as one group of 300 (picking up off surfaces eg bannisters and so on).    Ie off school each kid will have probably an order of magnitude fewer interactions with different people (at a guess). 

(I’m not speaking to the grandparents issue here).


----------



## sihhi (Mar 9, 2020)

Kilgore Trout said:


> I don't see how closing school helps. Kids will go out and play together, or go round to their (at higher risk) grandparents to be baby sat



Epidemiologists have made the case for school closures during pandemic precisely because parents will not go to work in non-essential sectors and keep their children at home.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 9, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Where on earth have you got the 'only 1% of children are infected' from, when we only have around 4 cases per million people?


 i haven't got it from anywhere, i said "or whatever" to illustrate that these were not real numbers.
p.s. i would bet my last dollar there are significantly more than 4 cases per million people right now. that's just the official number. my logic stands.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 9, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> The biggest lock-down, and most important one, is in Hubei province, which is the one I was referring to, the last extension was on 20th Feb. until 10th March.



I spoke to my friend in Yichang and no one he knows is going to work apart from a pharmacist who has already been in her shop. His block committee has reverted back to three slips/per week (to let you go outside) - but most don't have enough masks. Hubei has not started a generalised fugong back to work unlike some other provinces


----------



## sihhi (Mar 9, 2020)

Flavour said:


> i haven't got it from anywhere, i said "or whatever" to illustrate that these were not real numbers.
> p.s. i would bet my last dollar there are significantly more than 4 cases per million people right now. that's just the official number. my logic stands.



The current confirmed cases will miss out those haven't yet had results (3 day wait, apparently) and those that haven't been tested at all because they are in the non-symptomatic stage. We can have a rough idea how many were infected on this day about 2 weeks from now.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 9, 2020)

elbows said:


> Leaked coronavirus plan to quarantine 16m sparks chaos in Italy
> 
> 
> Thousands tried to flee south after decree to confine people until 3 April was revealed
> ...



Those people who have come from the affected area have been told by some southern authorities to self-isolate for 14 days.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 9, 2020)

weepiper said:


> Where are all these women just sitting around waiting to look after other people's children? The only women who can afford to be SAHMs these days aren't going to do it. Everyone else is at work.



The point is that work outside with many other people together spreads infection at a rate where every ICU bed in the country will be occupied within a fortnight - so it has to be curtailed for a period. Men can look after other people's children aswell.


----------



## Kilgore Trout (Mar 9, 2020)

I think the risk is in people going to different places and interacting with people they don't mix with on a regular basis. So I get the idea of abandoning sporting events where people come together from different areas.

But children going down the street to the same classroom of kids at school over and again, where there is currently no infection, seems very low risk.

It would be different if the virus was widespread, as in north Italy, but it seems excessive at this stage.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 9, 2020)

Kilgore Trout said:


> I think the risk is in people going to different places and interacting with people they don't mix with on a regular basis. So I get the idea of abandoning sporting events where people come together from different areas.
> 
> But children going down the street to the same classroom of kids at school over and again, where there is currently no infection, seems very low risk.
> 
> It would be different if the virus was widespread, as in north Italy, but it seems excessive at this stage.


Though, presumably, any group of kids or other social group that doesn't have the virus _becomes _at risk when one member of that group becomes exposed by their interaction with someone else?  Also, groups that don't have the virus now may be incubating it.

I don't take it as given that governments should be imposing shutdowns and social isolation everywhere. But in general terms, the more movement and interaction that takes place, the more likely the virus will spread.


----------



## miss direct (Mar 9, 2020)

I'd like to know how day to day life has been affected in the UK. Hard to get a sense from watching the news. Is it business as usual, but with more masks? Here in Istanbul everything's still going on, with still not a confirmed case, but the number of masks out and about is increasing every day. Oh, and my Iranian friends have been subject to all sorts of ridiculousness, even though they live here and haven't been to Iran since last summer


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Mar 9, 2020)

Apart from a maximum purchase of only 5 dust masks per person in Screwfix earlier, you wouldn’t know tbh.


----------



## Pingety Pong (Mar 9, 2020)

miss direct said:


> I'd like to know how day to day life has been affected in the UK. Hard to get a sense from watching the news. Is it business as usual, but with more masks? Here in Istanbul everything's still going on, with still not a confirmed case, but the number of masks out and about is increasing every day. Oh, and my Iranian friends have been subject to all sorts of ridiculousness, even though they live here and haven't been to Iran since last summer


In Manchester, it's business as usual. I have seen about two people wearing masks over the last few weeks and there isn't any hand gel left in the shops, but that's about it.


----------



## killer b (Mar 9, 2020)

miss direct said:


> I'd like to know how day to day life has been affected in the UK. Hard to get a sense from watching the news. Is it business as usual, but with more masks? Here in Istanbul everything's still going on, with still not a confirmed case, but the number of masks out and about is increasing every day. Oh, and my Iranian friends have been subject to all sorts of ridiculousness, even though they live here and haven't been to Iran since last summer


I can only speak for Preston and Manchester, but it doesn't seem to have had any noticeable impact up here yet. Some people have talked about supermarket shelves stripped of essentials, but that seems not to be affecting all supermarkets. The only people I've seen wearing masks out and about have been east asian people.


----------



## Numbers (Mar 9, 2020)

No difference around where I live (East London) at all.


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 9, 2020)

No difference in Wales - at all - apart from morons clearing shelves of bog rolls.


----------



## Numbers (Mar 9, 2020)

Irish New Year parades being cancelled  









						Three new cases of Covid-19 in Republic of Ireland
					

Three more cases of Covid-19 have been confirmed in the Republic of Ireland, bringing the total number to 24.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## Wilf (Mar 9, 2020)

Sets up Smoggies joke: strangely enough I haven't seen a single person wearing a mask in Middlesbrough...


----------



## sihhi (Mar 9, 2020)

Kilgore Trout said:


> I think the risk is in people going to different places and interacting with people they don't mix with on a regular basis. So I get the idea of abandoning sporting events where people come together from different areas.
> 
> But children going down the street to the same classroom of kids at school over and again, where there is currently no infection, seems very low risk.
> 
> It would be different if the virus was widespread, as in north Italy, but it seems excessive at this stage.



In fact it's very high risk, because children have tended to be infected non-symptomatically longer than adults.
One infected child at a school can infect many, many others, who in turn infect others, to keep the oxygen and ICU bed supply available the number of people an infected person is infected has to be 'artificially restrained'.
Education will have to be moved online as is apparently soon to begin in Italy.

Everything seems 'excessive' at this stage because we are comparing with figures confirmed from yesterday, but the spread is very quick. Controls to other regions in China came early and worked.


----------



## og ogilby (Mar 9, 2020)

miss direct said:


> I'd like to know how day to day life has been affected in the UK. Hard to get a sense from watching the news. Is it business as usual, but with more masks? Here in Istanbul everything's still going on, with still not a confirmed case, but the number of masks out and about is increasing every day. Oh, and my Iranian friends have been subject to all sorts of ridiculousness, even though they live here and haven't been to Iran since last summer


I've been offering a splurt of hand wash to my customers after we have completed the payment handover and about 90% are saying no thanks.


----------



## elbows (Mar 9, 2020)

og ogilby said:


> I've been offering a splurt of hand wash to my customers after we have completed the payment handover and about 90% are saying no thanks.



At which point you are forced to pull the handle that releases the trap door, plunging them into the disinfectant pool?


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 9, 2020)

Numbers said:


> Irish New Year parades being cancelled
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Mostly just yanks and British getting pissed anyway.


----------



## Numbers (Mar 9, 2020)

Artaxerxes said:


> Mostly just yanks and British getting pissed anyway.


Not in the smaller towns, it's a big day out, and very enjoyable.

E2A:  I know it's not actually referred to as the Irish New Year - within my circle we do  
But similar to the Chinese New Year a lot of us do go home for it.


----------



## ska invita (Mar 9, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> I plotted these numbers and this is what it looks like for the UK:
> 
> 
> Friday, 6 March 2020163Saturday, 7 March 2020228Sunday, 8 March 2020319Monday, 9 March 2020447Tuesday, 10 March 2020626Wednesday, 11 March 2020877Thursday, 12 March 20201227Friday, 13 March 20201473Saturday, 14 March 20201767Sunday, 15 March 20202121Monday, 16 March 20202545Tuesday, 17 March 20203054Wednesday, 18 March 20203665Thursday, 19 March 20204398Friday, 20 March 20205277Saturday, 21 March 20206333Sunday, 22 March 20207599Monday, 23 March 20209119Tuesday, 24 March 202010943Wednesday, 25 March 202013131Thursday, 26 March 202015758


UK Monday count is 319.
You're a day out Fez!


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 9, 2020)

ska invita said:


> UK Monday count is 319.
> You're a day out Fez!


I did notice that!

Also, I have done a 2nd set of figures/guesses:









						Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more
					

In the world that's coming, I fear for the future of bowls and bridge.   In a world where Boris is PM there will always be money for Bridge




					www.urban75.net


----------



## sihhi (Mar 9, 2020)

Schools and nurseries in Romania will shut down from Wednesday.

Slovenia banning events of 100 (one hundred) or more from tomorrow.

Madrid closing all schools and universities for two weeks

Israel puts 14-day home quarantine for any arrival from abroad.

French Culture Minister positive too.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 9, 2020)

Closing all schools in Romania with only 17 confirmed cases. How long are we going to wait here?


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 9, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Closing all schools in Romania with only 17 confirmed cases. How long are we going to wait here?



Slovenia on similar numbers, too.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 9, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Closing all schools in Romania with only 17 confirmed cases. How long are we going to wait here?



My guess the government's original thinking was to go for May-June-July ie til summer.
Australia's public health department candidly said community transmissionhas come six weeks earlier  in non-Asian countries than they predicted.
I forlornly _hope_ it is sooner. But there's a chancer's attitude with Boris Johnson and former banking specialist Matt Hancock, with plenty of remarks of remarks about the unfairness of school closures and disruption to the health service.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 9, 2020)

Whole of Italy in lockdown.


----------



## elbows (Mar 9, 2020)

Egypt finally woke up to what has been brewing there.



> *Egypt announces travel restrictions*
> Ruth Michaelson
> Egypt has placed a nationwide suspension on “any large gatherings of citizens, or those that involve the movement of citizens between governorates,” its prime minister, *Mostafa Madbouly*, has announced.
> The Egyptian ministry of culture separately cancelled any upcoming events taking place, including a film festival in Luxor, the site of a major outbreak of covid-19. Egypt’s ministry of health has also said 59 people have so far been infected with the virus.



                            7m ago    21:30


----------



## sihhi (Mar 9, 2020)

elbows said:


> Egypt finally woke up to what has been brewing there.


Am I correct in thinking its measures are more restrictive than Britain's?


----------



## Sue (Mar 9, 2020)

Loads of adverts for cruises on the telly. Which seems a bit weird given all the recent cruise coronamagedon.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 9, 2020)

Yes I noticed that - loads of holidays too, although I suppose this is the season for booking holidays ...


----------



## TopCat (Mar 9, 2020)

Sue said:


> Loads of adverts for cruises on the telly. Which seems a bit weird given all the recent cruise coronamagedon.


Loads of passengers have cancelled and they are re advertising the holidays of a lifetime again.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 9, 2020)

miss direct said:


> I'd like to know how day to day life has been affected in the UK. Hard to get a sense from watching the news. Is it business as usual, but with more masks? Here in Istanbul everything's still going on, with still not a confirmed case, but the number of masks out and about is increasing every day. Oh, and my Iranian friends have been subject to all sorts of ridiculousness, even though they live here and haven't been to Iran since last summer



Nothing where I live in the NE.  But if you watch the news you’d think the bubonic plague had broke out again.


----------



## Sue (Mar 9, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Loads of passengers have cancelled and they are re advertising the *holidays of a lifetime* again.


----------



## killer b (Mar 9, 2020)

I mean, what else are you gonna do if your business is selling holidays, other than advertise holidays for sale right up to the point where you aren't allowed to advertise holidays for sale?


----------



## TopCat (Mar 9, 2020)

killer b said:


> I mean, what else are you gonna do if your business is selling holidays, other than advertise holidays for sale right up to the point where you aren't allowed to advertise holidays for sale?


Plus cruise operators have huge experience in reselling dead peoples holidays. We are talking a lot of money.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 9, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Whole of Italy in lockdown.


This is huge. The resultant economic damage could destroy the entire inner europe project.


----------



## Sue (Mar 9, 2020)

killer b said:


> I mean, what else are you gonna do if your business is selling holidays, other than advertise holidays for sale right up to the point where you aren't allowed to advertise holidays for sale?



A fair point, just can't imagine they'd have many takers at the moment given the very recent tales of quarantine woe. (Also guessing a lot of people won't be booking any holidays at the moment due to the ongoing uncertainty. After all, who'd have predicted Italy being locked down a few weeks ago..?)


----------



## killer b (Mar 9, 2020)

I guess the prices will be good...


----------



## elbows (Mar 9, 2020)

killer b said:


> I guess the prices will be good...



And maybe the tv advertising rates for them are discounted at the moment too.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 9, 2020)

Sue said:


> A fair point, just can't imagine they'd have many takers at the moment given the very recent tales of quarantine woe. (Also guessing a lot of people won't be booking any holidays at the moment due to the ongoing uncertainty. After all, who'd have predicted Italy being locked down a few weeks ago..?)


Bargain cruises marketed to Tenerife all inclusive types. We all get to step up. 
The crew never go home. The ships are never really cleaned. 

Wave at the Sea Org as they sail past.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 9, 2020)

And released early from the billion year contract can't really say no


----------



## elbows (Mar 9, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Am I correct in thinking its measures are more restrictive than Britain's?



I havent been keeping up with announced measures but Egypts response in terms of detecting cases has been very poor.

For example, on the 2nd of March they reported only their 2nd case. By that point in time various cases with recent Egypt travel history had already started testing positive in other countries. Their numbers only started to ramp up since then once they found a ship-based cluster to focus on.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 10, 2020)

Looks like the total death count has clocked 4k: Coronavirus Update (Live): 114,299 Cases and 4,025 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer


----------



## Favelado (Mar 10, 2020)

All schools and universities shut in Madrid as of Wednesday, for two weeks.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 10, 2020)

Some optimistic news?









						Scientists may have found a way to prevent coronavirus spread
					

Just like any other virus, the coronavirus needs a host to survive. Viruses enter the cells of the human body to cause disease by attaching to a specific receptor site on the host cell membrane. To do this, they attach to proteins in the capsid through glycoproteins found in the envelope of the...




					www.news-medical.net


----------



## elbows (Mar 10, 2020)

WHO have realised that the word pandemic is going to be used now anyway, regardless of their predictable reticence, so now its a case of managing expectations about what you can still hope to achieve in a pandemic.



> But he stressed, “even if we call it a pandemic, still we can contain it and control it.
> 
> “It would be the first pandemic in history that can be controlled,” he said. “We are not at the mercy of the virus.”
> 
> ...



 1h ago 00:27


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 10, 2020)

Sue said:


> Loads of adverts for cruises on the telly. Which seems a bit weird given all the recent cruise coronamagedon.



It’s tempting because you pay for 2 weeks off work get another month off for free.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 10, 2020)

I have a couple of questions on specific points I’m interested in.  I know these points have been discussed at times earlier in this thread, but as time goes on I’m assuming better and more reliable info emerges, and I’m interested in knowing if anyone has up to date and authoritative sources on two points:

1) how long are people likely infectious for, before they show symptoms?  Back in the early days of the thread I think 2-3 weeks had been mentioned, but more recently I’ve seen 5-7 days and I’m wondering where in this range is typical, or is this still unknown?
2) how much do we now know about immunity post infection?  Whether it exists at all and if it does, then how long lasting?  I’ve seen the reports about people falling ill again within weeks in China, but not sure if these are very few in number or widespread?

The reason I’m asking specifically about these two points is I’m trying to look beyond this first spreading phase we are all transfixed by, and it seems to me they are key to determining how widespread this ultimately becomes and how long it might last for (in the absence of vaccine or effective drugs).


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 10, 2020)

Sue said:


> Loads of adverts for cruises on the telly. Which seems a bit weird given all the recent cruise coronamagedon.


The cruise market had had a boom in recent years - this will knock it on its arse


----------



## bellaozzydog (Mar 10, 2020)

Just read this on Twitter if this is anywhere near genuine we should all be fucking petrified



italy is basically triaging patients for ITU if you are old or have co-mobidities they are deciding not to treat you. i.e you are not worth risking material and man power to save within the capacity of the health system 

let that sink in.......

I’m hoping it’s called out as fake.......


----------



## baldrick (Mar 10, 2020)

bellaozzydog said:


> Just read this on Twitter if this is anywhere near genuine we should all be fucking petrified
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I'd just rather avoid unverified accounts being posted on this thread. There's another thread for that sort of thing, I think elbows intended this to be more grounded in reason and science, which I'm ok with even if it means we're a day or two behind the doom mongers on other threads


----------



## LDC (Mar 10, 2020)

bellaozzydog said:


> Just read this on Twitter if this is anywhere near genuine we should all be fucking petrified
> 
> 
> 
> italy is basically triaging patients for ITU if you are old or have co-mobidities they are deciding not to treat you. i.e you are not worth risking material and man power to save within the capacity of the health system




I hate to say this, but that's the plan that's been talked about in the hospital I work in.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 10, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I hate to say this, but that's the plan that's been talked about in the hospital I work in.



It's basically the “three wise men” protocol, isn't it? 



> Under a so-called “three wise men” protocol, three senior consultants in each hospital would be forced to make decisions on rationing care such as ventilators and beds, in the event hospitals were overwhelmed with patients.
> 
> One consultant said the “three wise men” protocol had been discussed at his hospital in recent weeks while another from the north of England said it had been raised “informally”.
> 
> ...


----------



## LDC (Mar 10, 2020)

Yup.


----------



## Grace Johnson (Mar 10, 2020)

baldrick said:


> I'd just rather avoid unverified accounts being posted on this thread. There's another thread for that sort of thing, I think elbows intended this to be more grounded in reason and science, which I'm ok with even if it means we're a day or two behind the doom mongers on other threads



It's grim as fuck but I don't think it's surprising news. When the health care system gets overwhelmed they are going to have to make those decisions somehow. I thought the NHS had similar plans for triage in a pandemic.


----------



## phillm (Mar 10, 2020)

Covid-19: How to triage effectively in a pandemic  - The BMJ
					

Triage in a pandemic is even thornier than you might think, say Christina Pagel and colleagues The UK is likely on the brink of a major covid-19 outbreak. [1,2] About [...]More...




					blogs.bmj.com
				




_Summary

Pragmatically, a first-come first-served approach to access will be hard to escape. This approach may be the fairest way to allocate care at a population level—every citizen has a roughly equal chance of accessing care when they need it although in practice it might well disadvantage the more vulnerable in society with the worst access to healthcare. While triage may be an effective way to increase population survival, this is not guaranteed and any protocol should be carefully thought through.  

Politicians and clinical leaders will stress that decisions on triage protocols are tough decisions to make, and they are right. But they are tougher decisions to implement and tougher still to be on the receiving end of. Any triage protocol will lead to tragic choices for some. This should not be left as the responsibility of individual clinicians without guidance from the NHS, the Royal Colleges, and Professional Societies to ensure consistency, equity and transparency. We’ve arguably missed the opportunity to properly engage the public in decisions on how we use their scarce resources to their benefit, but efforts must be made to ensure that the public understand the purpose of any triage protocol and how it will be applied, and are able to trust that it will be consistently applied. 

There is no single right answer, but if containment and delay measures fail then the NHS needs to find an answer and soon. [3] And when covid-19 is over, we need to start the conversations with the public for next time. _


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 10, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I hate to say this, but that's the plan that's been talked about in the hospital I work in.



What counts as “comorbidities” in this context? I mean exactly which existing / underlying conditions might disqualify someone from being thought worthwhile saving?


----------



## LDC (Mar 10, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> What counts as “comorbidities” in this context? I mean exactly which existing / underlying conditions might disqualify someone from being thought worthwhile saving?



Pretty much anything. COPD, asthma, any ongoing cardiac issue, diabetes, cancer, kidney failure, etc. Rather grimly severe learning difficulties was mentioned in my hospital.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 10, 2020)

Does hypertension fall under ongoing cardiac issues?  So many people are on blood pressure meds that you would hope that doesn’t automatically rule them out.


----------



## Edie (Mar 10, 2020)

bellaozzydog said:


> Just read this on Twitter if this is anywhere near genuine we should all be fucking petrified
> 
> 
> 
> ...


To be fair, every decision about ceiling of care is taken on the basis of whether or not with level 2 or 3 care you have a good chance of survival.  The alarming part is patients not being reviewed by intensivists because they already completely lack beds (or even CPAP).


LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I hate to say this, but that's the plan that's been talked about in the hospital I work in.


What do you mean? (sorry just unclear exactly what you mean by this, as don’t think it can be that pts won’t be assessed for level 3 care if they have co morbidities full stop)?


----------



## LDC (Mar 10, 2020)

Edie said:


> What do you mean? (sorry just unclear exactly what you mean by this, as don’t think it can be that pts won’t be assessed for level 3 care if they have co morbidities full stop)?



Triage rather than non-assessment, although I suspect Italy didn't start at the 'no assessment' stage but ended up there as things got worse.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 10, 2020)

bellaozzydog said:


> Just read this on Twitter if this is anywhere near genuine we should all be fucking petrified
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Why on earth would it be fake? Broadly in line with what happened in Hubei except there it was more bureaucratic you had to have a diagnosis that you were COVID positive before getting into hospital with oxygen and ICU care. Lots of old people died of pneumonia at home.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 10, 2020)

baldrick said:


> I'd just rather avoid unverified accounts being posted on this thread. There's another thread for that sort of thing, I think elbows intended this to be more grounded in reason and science, which I'm ok with even if it means we're a day or two behind the doom mongers on other threads



Why would a hospital doctor be making this sort of stuff up? For fun?


----------



## elbows (Mar 10, 2020)

baldrick said:


> I'd just rather avoid unverified accounts being posted on this thread. There's another thread for that sort of thing, I think elbows intended this to be more grounded in reason and science, which I'm ok with even if it means we're a day or two behind the doom mongers on other threads



Its not my thread! And when this thread started, there was no sub-forum for other Covid-19 threads. This thread was a mix of everything. Its somewhat redundant now in a way, but I suppose it serves as the general world-wide updates thread, including science. I expect specific bits of the science to get their own threads as stuff pops up.


----------



## elbows (Mar 10, 2020)

As for the veracity of that twitter account, the detail and sentiment is pretty consistent with other similar reports. But I dont need to verify what they say anyway, we have data on number of cases in intensive care in Italy.

I have thrown together some of those numbers. There were plenty holes in the info I had for February, but I included a couple of Feb numbers anyway.


----------



## tommers (Mar 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> As for the veracity of that twitter account, the detail and sentiment is pretty consistent with other similar reports. But I dont need to verify what they say anyway, we have data on number of cases in intensive care in Italy.
> 
> I have thrown together some of those numbers. There were plenty holes in the info I had for February, but I included a couple of Feb numbers anyway.
> 
> View attachment 201206



do we know how many we have in ICU at the moment?


----------



## elbows (Mar 10, 2020)

tommers said:


> do we know how many we have in ICU at the moment?



We as in the UK?

I've not seen a number like that. If we dont get such a number during our own epidemic wave, then I will feel rather blind. Might need the press or whoever to shout loudly to try to get this number, dunno.


----------



## tommers (Mar 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> We as in the UK?
> 
> I've not seen a number like that. If we dont get such a number during our own epidemic wave, then I will feel rather blind. Might need the press or whoever to shout loudly to try to get this number, dunno.


 Just interested cos of the "we're two weeks behind Italy" thing.  If the numbers match up then at least we have an idea of what the situation might be here at end March (if the govt don't do anything, which let's face it is possible)


----------



## baldrick (Mar 10, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Why would a hospital doctor be making this sort of stuff up? For fun?


People make up all sorts of things, don't be disingenuous.

Anyway, I don't want to derail the thread, I just thought it's worth considering.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 10, 2020)

bellaozzydog said:


> Just read this on Twitter if this is anywhere near genuine we should all be fucking petrified
> 
> 
> 
> ...



So after I finished gulping reading that I now need (as a cancer patient) to teach loved ones how to tube me.

What fucking tube? A sterile siphon tube? Something off the net? Can anyone specify please? 

Still reeling from reading this. I am going to have to look after myself.


----------



## LDC (Mar 10, 2020)

TopCat said:


> So after I finished gulping reading that I now need (as a cancer patient) to teach loved ones how to tube me.
> 
> What fucking tube? A sterile siphon tube? Something off the net? Can anyone specify please?
> 
> Still reeling from reading this. I am going to have to look after myself.



No, it's short for intubation. Highly specialized procedure to control the airway of an unconscious patient. Not a learning through watching a Youtube tutorial thing.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 10, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> No, it's short for intubation. Highly specialized procedure to control the airway of an unconscious patient. Not a learning through watching a Youtube tutorial thing.


Well if it's a choice between drowning in my own mucous or getting intubated by someone who once watched a James Herriot episode in the 80's I'm going for the latter.


----------



## keybored (Mar 10, 2020)

Part-timah said:


>





> In response to DingTalk’s pleas, a widely circulated joke, students wrote in the review section they were willing to give DingTalk five stars, but in five “installments.”


----------



## TopCat (Mar 10, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> No, it's short for intubation. Highly specialized procedure to control the airway of an unconscious patient. Not a learning through watching a Youtube tutorial thing.


A sterile siphon tube down the gob and into the lung, dont bruise the sides. Dont panic. Dont vomit. Then what?


----------



## two sheds (Mar 10, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Well if it's a choice between drowning in my own mucous or getting intubated by someone who once watched a James Herriot episode in the 80's I'm going for the latter.



They're more likely to put on large gloves and stick their hand up your arse


----------



## LDC (Mar 10, 2020)

TopCat said:


> A sterile siphon tube down the gob and into the lung, dont bruise the sides. Dont panic. Dont vomit. Then what?



You won't panic, you're fucking unconsious, or in emergency cases when they do it you're effectively dead. Then they move air/oxygen in and out of your lungs though a bag (in emergencies) or through a machine (ICU). Having knocked you out first. And then keeping you sedated. While monitoring all your vitals. Specialized work for a team of people.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> As for the veracity of that twitter account, the detail and sentiment is pretty consistent with other similar reports. But I dont need to verify what they say anyway, we have data on number of cases in intensive care in Italy.
> 
> I have thrown together some of those numbers. There were plenty holes in the info I had for February, but I included a couple of Feb numbers anyway.
> 
> View attachment 201206



So roughly doubling every 5 days then. Italy left their distancing measures too late it would seem. I note a fair few number of doctors are in ICU and one has already died.


----------



## elbows (Mar 10, 2020)




----------



## sihhi (Mar 10, 2020)

Greece closing all schools for 14 days, starting tomorrow.









						Κλείνουν όλα τα εκπαιδευτικά ιδρύματα της χώρας λόγω κορονοϊού
					

Για τουλάχιστον 14 ημέρες - Κεραμέως: Η σχολική χρονιά θα ολοκληρωθεί κανονικά.




					www.huffingtonpost.gr


----------



## elbows (Mar 10, 2020)

Quoting this partly because I dont think I will have many other chances to use the phrase liberty cap style headgear during this pandemic.



> Despite warnings over mass gatherings and the spread of the coronavirus, the mayor of a small town in France has defended a record-breaking rally of people dressed as Smurfs that went ahead in France over the weekend.
> 
> Just a day before French authorities banned all gatherings of more than 1,000 people, in a bid to contain the virus, more than 3,500 painted their faces blue and donned the cartoon characters’ liberty cap style headgear for the gathering in Landerneau, western France.
> 
> ...



                            17m ago    15:42


----------



## sihhi (Mar 10, 2020)

It's in part because British travellers are importing the disease into Greece and Greece had not quarantine set up for them. Another 5 cases in Greece all from Britain.

Ulan Bator has been quarantined.

Lombardia is asking for a decree for all shops except pharmacies and food shops to be shut.

Austria has banned events with over 100 people, all religious services and will shut universities from tomorrow.

Belgium to ban all events with over 1000 people.

All schools in northern Cyprus to be closed starting tomorrow.

Largest hospital in Nicosia has its cardiology department go on lockdown cancelling appointments and surgeries because a doctor there is confirmed positive.
Government promises more action.

 Macedonia has shut nurseries, schools, universities all sport to be held behind closed doors. spectators in the next 30 days.

Germany's testing has overtaken Britain's.
Westfalia has banned all events with over 1000.
Bavaria has done the same and delayed its university term starting from next week to some point in April.

A senior Polish general is confirmed positive in Warsaw.
Warsaw and some other places in Poland have shut all universities.

Harvard has put all classes online and next term will be done online.

Kerala has closed theatres, schools, universities for the foreseeable future.

Anecdotally feels as if there is an uptick in delaying action in many countries, also in higher education.


----------



## kropotkin (Mar 10, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Why would a hospital doctor be making this sort of stuff up? For fun?


It is entirely true- no admissions to ITU in Italy over 65yrs. I hear no admission if less than that with significant comorbidities. 
Chances of survival are much higher in the younger cohort, with shorter time to extubation- i.e. you can get two patients through a ventilator rather than one in time x.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 10, 2020)

sihhi said:


> It's in part because British travellers are importing the disease into Greece and Greece had not quarantine set up for them. Another 5 cases in Greece all from Britain.



Why would it be British travellers, and not travellers from other European counties with far more cases? 

Or -"Coronavirus cases in Greece tripled in recent days when travelers who had returned from a pilgrimage to Israel and Egypt were detected with the virus. Among them, a 65-year-old man battling pneumonia in a hospital isolation unit in the western port city of Patras." SOURCE

Why is a google search not coming up with anything to suggest that it is British travellers? Where have you got this from, twitter?


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 10, 2020)

Does anyone know advice on people returning from Cyprus? Couple of my learners have just gone there for two weeks.


----------



## Riklet (Mar 10, 2020)

Surely the gov will have to announce closure of schools and universities this week?

Yes we are behind other countries in cases but not for long. And I am shocked by the lack of awareness and information in general. And lack of soap and hand sanitiser publically and visibly available. The authorities are really going to have to pull their finger out.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 10, 2020)

Riklet said:


> The authorities are really going to have to pull their finger out.


And then thoroughly wash it for twenty seconds while singing God Save The Queen. #FridayNights


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 10, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> It is entirely true- no admissions to ITU in Italy over 65yrs. I hear no admission if less than that with significant comorbidities.


Cross-posting this quote from the Italy thread because it's so :


> Lombardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country. The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity.
> 
> We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ICUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of patients with severe respiratory failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.
> 
> ...


----------



## phillm (Mar 10, 2020)

National Guard called out in New York. 

_“This is the single greatest public health challenge we have in the state right now,” the governor said at a news conference.

He described the number of cases as going up “unabated”, as he outlined the special strategy for New Rochelle aimed at stopping the geographic spread of the virus._

National guard deployed to New York coronavirus hotspot


----------



## Shippou-Sensei (Mar 10, 2020)

TopCat said:


> A sterile siphon tube down the gob and into the lung, dont bruise the sides. Dont panic. Dont vomit. Then what?



Tell em it's like shyphoning petrol from a van.


----------



## Shippou-Sensei (Mar 10, 2020)

One reply for each lung.


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> Quoting this partly because I dont think I will have many other chances to use the phrase liberty cap style headgear during this pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> 17m ago    15:42


The phrygian cap


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 10, 2020)

40 cases in Portugal , nearest to me us about 45/60 mins away . Football league looks like it will be played in closed stadiums , some museums and libraries temporarily closed in Porto and some concerts cancelled but that’s about it . Everyone still shaking hands and the famous two kisses on the cheek . Chinese shops and restaurants are closing but they say this is for a holiday .


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 10, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> 40 cases in Portugal ...



Hard to believe, when Spain has over 1,200 confirmed cases.   

Any idea on the numbers being tested?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 10, 2020)

So elbows why do you think Japan seems to have a different pattern to other countries affected by this virus?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 10, 2020)

From the graph (upthread) it seems Japan has not been testing as much as the UK as an example.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 10, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Hard to believe, when Spain has over 1,200 confirmed cases.
> 
> Any idea on the numbers being tested?


I’ll try and find out .


----------



## elbows (Mar 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> So elbows why do you think Japan seems to have a different pattern to other countries affected by this virus?



Well I have a biased opinion of Japan when it comes to openness, transparency, bureaucracy, deference, media holding government to account, etc. Mostly because I followed the Fukushima nuclear accident rather closely.

I dont really know what the full story is with their data. Maybe its a combination of things but I would be surprised if deliberately not looking (low number of tests) was not a part of it.

i could give them the benefit of the doubt and say that various social distancing measures they brought in have made a difference. But then I'd have expected to see that showing up on the graph too, with a change in trajectory after those measures were implemented.

I didnt dedicate that much energy into driving myself crazy trying to find out, because again I know how that goes from Fukushima. Its easier to just ignore their data and look at other countries.

I do remember posting an article where South Korea was criticising Japans response to the crisis, I'll post it again if I stumble on it or find another example. Some narratives will no doubt suggest that the olympics is what has tempted them to distort the picture, but even without the olympics I'm afraid I'd have expected this sort of thing from Japan.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 10, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> I’ll try and find out .


There’s not a huge amount of human traffic between Portugal and Spain , well not as much as you’d think prob more between Portugal and France and Portugal and Switzerland.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 10, 2020)

I think Japan is lying because they're afraid of having to cancel the Olympics.


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 10, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Hard to believe, when Spain has over 1,200 confirmed cases.




Wales 6/373.


----------



## elbows (Mar 10, 2020)

At this rate it is only a matter of time till the number of yes, serious votes in the somewhat silly poll that ended up in this thread exceed the no votes. Will this be the moment the WHO choose to finally declare a pandemic, long after most people had moved on from quibbling about the use of the term?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 10, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> There’s not a huge amount of human traffic between Portugal and Spain , well not as much as you’d think prob more between Portugal and France and Portugal and Switzerland.



And France is at over 1,400 confirmed cases, with Switzerland on almost 400, which is massive for such a tiny country, and on a per million basis well over double that of France.

I fear the figure for Portugal is, like America, down to a lack of looking for it.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> At this rate it is only a matter of time till the number of yes, serious votes in the somewhat silly poll that ended up in this thread exceed the no votes. ..


FYI as the OP, I didn't post the poll. I just logged in one day and it was there.


----------



## elbows (Mar 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> FYI as the OP, I didn't post the poll. I just logged in one day and it was there.



Yeah, threads got merged (long before there was this dedicated subforum), hence why I said the poll ended up in this thread.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> At this rate it is only a matter of time till the number of yes, serious votes in the somewhat silly poll that ended up in this thread exceed the no votes. Will this be the moment the WHO choose to finally declare a pandemic, long after most people had moved on from quibbling about the use of the term?



Reassuring that the WHO are monitoring the thread


----------



## weltweit (Mar 10, 2020)

If the numbers here are to be belived, Coronavirus Update (Live): 118,468 Cases and 4,267 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer South Korea seems to have a lower mortality than Iran or Italy despite having announced a similar number of cases.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> If the numbers here are to be belived, Coronavirus Update (Live): 118,468 Cases and 4,267 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer South Korea seems to have a lower mortality than Iran or Italy despite having announced a similar number of cases.


They've been testing a LOT more people. There was also something about the people they have been testing skewing younger and female too, somehow related to the cult thing they had going on there.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 10, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> They've been testing a LOT more people. There was also something about the people they have been testing skewing younger and female too, somehow related to the cult thing they had going on there.


Interesting, they have certainly found cases, quite a lot, yet deaths still lag Iran and Italy. I don't understand it.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 10, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> And France is at over 1,400 confirmed cases, with Switzerland on almost 400, which is massive for such a tiny country, and on a per million basis well over double that of France.
> 
> I fear the figure for Portugal is, like America, down to a lack of looking for it.



Dunno tbh , there is the same public health advice re self isolation as the UK , people who may have been in contact with the 40 cases have been asked to come forward to be tested , the President has just done self isolation as an example even though he’s tested negative. They’ve stopped all flights to Italy and for those coming from China go into compulsory isolation .The Portuguese are great migrators but traditionally come back Xmas , Easter , some times the summer so perhaps Easter is the next crucial period . 
in terms of a lack of looking for it I understand that flights inbound from Italy to the U.K. have no extra checks?


----------



## AmateurAgitator (Mar 10, 2020)

edited post

sorry, but where am I supposed to post that?


----------



## LDC (Mar 10, 2020)

Count Cuckula said:


> NRA insists Coronavirus pandemic could be stopped in its tracks by one good guy with Ebola
> 
> 
> COVID-19 can easily be stopped in its tracks by one good guy with a bigger, more powerful and deadly virus, according to the National Rifle Association this afternoon.
> ...



Could you not post shit like that in a serious thread. There's a thread for it elsewhere.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 10, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> ..
> in terms of a lack of looking for it I understand that flights inbound from Italy to the U.K. have no extra checks?


Luckily it seems the airlines have now pretty much cancelled flights to and from Italy. At least I think it may be all of them, not sure. Could have happened earlier though.


----------



## elbows (Mar 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Interesting, they have certainly found cases, quite a lot, yet deaths still lag Iran and Italy. I don't understand it.



There are a whole bunch of countries where I, if not confused about their data exactly, would still not like to predict what story we should be trying to tell with it.

Certainly as mentioned by someone else, a large number of the confirmed cases they have are linked to the religious cluster. In theory the implications of this could include:

They have found a lot of milder cases that may not otherwise have been discovered.
They might be discovering a lot of cases quite early, which could mean better care/survival rates, or could just mean we have to wait longer for many more of these cases to start to die.
They might be focussing so much on cases related to the few known clusters, and missing other parts of the picture.

Other possibilities exist too I'm sure. I dont want to pick any of these as likely at the moment, I just have to wait.

I certainly dont exclude the possibility that there is another twist to the story of this virus to come. Maybe in a couple of weeks if the variations between countries are still rather interesting and poorly explained, I will have a stab at considering some possibilities.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 10, 2020)

Count Cuckula said:


> edited post
> 
> sorry, but where am I supposed to post that?



Here - Coronavirus meme/panic/fear mongering general thread


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Luckily it seems the airlines have now pretty much cancelled flights to and from Italy. At least I think it may be all of them, not sure. Could have happened earlier though.


Interesting that in some states it’s the airlines that have done this and in others it’s been decreed by the state .


----------



## TopCat (Mar 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> FYI as the OP, I didn't post the poll. I just logged in one day and it was there.


It did seem incongruous


----------



## muscovyduck (Mar 10, 2020)

Flavour said:


> I think Japan is lying because they're afraid of having to cancel the Olympics.


I love this post because it's probably true and yet it still reads like the kind of thing someone says about someone involved in a HR issue at work


----------



## Supine (Mar 10, 2020)

Good thread on how China has managed to limit spread (from an effective reproductive rate of 3.8 to only 0.32).


----------



## TopCat (Mar 10, 2020)

Supine said:


> Good thread on how China has managed to limit spread (from an effective reproductive rate of 3.8 to only 0.32).



I'm.guessing the US will be the worst.


----------



## Cid (Mar 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Interesting, they have certainly found cases, quite a lot, yet deaths still lag Iran and Italy. I don't understand it.



Country A
50,000 mild cases, 2,000 intensive cases, 1,000 deaths. Country A tests 10% of mild cases.

Country B
10,000 mild cases, 400 intensive cases, 200 deaths. Country B tests 50% of mild cases.

Country A's figures end up being a total of 8,000 cases, with 25% in intensive care and a fatality rate of 12.5%. Country B's figures end up being a total of 5,600 cases with 7.1% in intensive care, and 3.5% fatality rate.

Essentially as you increase testing, you increase the resolution of your data set and get closer to the actual rates for the disease. The disparity between Italy and SK does seem so large that there must be other factors... But it's just impossible to say without more information. We don't really seem to have any grasp on underreporting. One way to get around this might be to randomly select individuals from a population (as you do for political polling etc) and regularly test each of them as the virus spreads.


----------



## elbows (Mar 10, 2020)

Cid said:


> One way to get around this might be to randomly select individuals from a population (as you do for political polling etc) and regularly test each of them as the virus spreads.



Yeah. I've been saying for ages that I'm kind of stuck when it comes to proclaiming all manner of things from the data, until such a time that various community sampling, serological surveys etc have been done, collated and revealed, ideally from multiple countries.


----------



## Kaka Tim (Mar 10, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Does anyone know advice on people returning from Cyprus? Couple of my learners have just gone there for two weeks.



 i came back from cyprus on saturday - at that time there had been no cases there, so there was no special advice - in fact there was fuck all about the virus anywhere when we got to manchester airport - no announcements or posters, nothing.  What the case will be in two weeks is anyone's guess.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 10, 2020)

Based on listening to this infectious disease expert, it looks like the world is fucked.


----------



## Grace Johnson (Mar 10, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Based on listening to this infectious disease expert, it looks like the world is fucked.




That's fuckin terrifying


----------



## AmateurAgitator (Mar 10, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Here - Coronavirus meme/panic/fear mongering general thread


Cheers


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 11, 2020)

Nadine Dorries MP has coronavirus: Health minister tests positive for coronavirus


----------



## Tankus (Mar 11, 2020)

> * SKY CONFIRMS THAT A SKY EMPLOYEE IN CARDIFF CONTACT CENTRE HAS BEEN DIAGNOSED WITH COVID-19 - BBC
> 
> * SKY'S CARDIFF CALL CENTRE OFFICE HAS BEEN EVACUATED AND CLOSED FOR DEEP CLEANING AND WILL RE-OPEN ON THURSDAY


staff got turfed out,down in the bay, told to take a few days off

Getting close to home .....On the plus side ...I scored some anti bacterial  hand cream in Tesco's  tonight, must have had a delivery 30 seconds before I arrived there ..


----------



## AmateurAgitator (Mar 11, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Based on listening to this infectious disease expert, it looks like the world is fucked.



Ugh Joe Rogan, jesus! I think what I posted on here yesterday was actually more appropriate.


----------



## AmateurAgitator (Mar 11, 2020)

Grace Johnson said:


> That's fuckin terrifying


 It's also a Joe Rogan interview, not exactly a reliable source of info. Rogan has a history of claiming people are 'experts' (when they are not) so he can have them on his show spouting their pseudo-science nonsense.


----------



## bimble (Mar 11, 2020)

Informative thread here on what it has taken to fight this thing in China:


----------



## miss direct (Mar 11, 2020)

First case confirmed in Turkey. Finally. Let the panic begin.


----------



## Numbers (Mar 11, 2020)

Count Cuckula said:


> It's also a Joe Rogan interview, not exactly a reliable source of info. Rogan has a history of claiming people are 'experts' (when they are not) so he can have them on his show spouting their pseudo-science nonsense.


He also has some great guests on.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 11, 2020)

A woman from Sunderland in her 60’s has just been diagnosed with coronavirus and now in hospital.

Fwiu she rarely went out of her house so it’s unclear how she became infected.









						Family speak of coronavirus 'heartbreak' as Sunderland gran is left in a coma
					

The woman, who is in her 60s, is the first person in the city to be diagnosed with the virus




					www.chroniclelive.co.uk


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 11, 2020)

Portugal update

59 cases, 57 of those hospialised . Waiting for results of 83 tests. 3066 contacts being monintored by the Health Service There is a case under investigation, of a possible import of the new coronavirus from Germany / Austria. There are nine cases from Italy and two from Spain. There are six active transmission chains.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 11, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> 59 cases, 57 of those hospialised


Given what we know, that means at least 600 cases in Portugal....two weeks ago.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 11, 2020)

There's no way there's only 59 cases, if 57 have been hospitalised. 

And, waiting on only 83 test results, when the UK is testing well over a 1,000 a day, and increasing capacity to do more.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 11, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> There's no way there's only 59 cases, if 57 have been hospitalised.
> 
> And, waiting on only 83 test results, when the UK is testing well over a 1,000 a day, and increasing capacity to do more.



Only passing the news on from their equivalent of BBC pal. Another source says that there are 471 suspected cases,   if that makes it any better, but i cant see this anywhere else and theres no follow up or definition of suspected cases. From same source ' The Covid-19 outbreak is affecting all sectors of the economy. In Portugal, the first was tourism, with a massive cancellation of reservations. In just one month, the Associação de Hotelaria de Portugal says it has recorded losses in excess of 30 percent.'


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 11, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> Only passing the news on from their equivalent of BBC pal.



What's with this 'pal' thing? 

I am not questioning you repeating official figures, I am questioning what testing is going on, because as we've seen in other countries, if you are not looking for it, you are not going to find it, then suddenly it sneaks up on you & bites your arse.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 11, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> What's with this 'pal' thing?
> 
> I am not questioning you repeating official figures, I am questioning what testing is going on, because as we've seen in other countries, if you are not looking for it, you are not going to find it, then suddenly it sneaks up on you & bites your arse.


Pal ? Its a Manchester expression normally rotated with mate.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 11, 2020)

let's keep it civil. anyway, i note enough people have changed their vote (me among them) to "yes this is serious" for the poll winner to change


----------



## phillm (Mar 11, 2020)

'Harry Potter's' got it.


Grace Johnson said:


> That's fuckin terrifying




Sounds like he knows what he is talking about.









						The disease expert who warned us
					

Peter Bergen interviews Michael Osterholm, who says there's very little vacant capacity in the health care system to fully deal with the effects of the coronavirus.




					edition.cnn.com
				












						Michael Osterholm - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 11, 2020)

phillm said:


> 'Harry Potter's' got it.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I ordered his book yesterday which looks interesting.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 11, 2020)

I see the WHO has finally called it a pandemic - just after our poll swung to majority "serious". Coincidence?


----------



## Wilf (Mar 11, 2020)

Flavour said:


> I see the WHO has finally called it a pandemic - just after our poll swung to majority "serious". Coincidence?


... whereas johnson did a video interview today where he said a number of countries are, essentially, over reacting.
[sorry, can't find the link]


----------



## elbows (Mar 11, 2020)

Flavour said:


> I see the WHO has finally called it a pandemic - just after our poll swung to majority "serious". Coincidence?



Well I did say this yesterday:



elbows said:


> At this rate it is only a matter of time till the number of yes, serious votes in the somewhat silly poll that ended up in this thread exceed the no votes. Will this be the moment the WHO choose to finally declare a pandemic, long after most people had moved on from quibbling about the use of the term?



Oops!


----------



## bimble (Mar 11, 2020)

India has just suspended & cancelled all visas (tourist & business) from today to 15th April, for everyone in the world.
(So glad I got to go last month just in time)


----------



## weltweit (Mar 11, 2020)

Perhaps some health professionals (or others) can help me with this. 

I don't understand what happens when someone gets this virus and recovers. At first they don't have any virus in their system, then they get infected and the virus multiplies in their system. Initially at least they don't have immunity, no one does, so the virus takes hold. What does the virus do? what does it act on? and assuming the patient recovers and develops immunity what has happened in the patient? Is it that their immune system has beaten back the virus and thus they now have immunity? or has the virus just run its course and died out naturally in that patient?


----------



## two sheds (Mar 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> Well I did say this yesterday:
> 
> 
> 
> Oops!



And I did remark that the WHO are clearly following this thread


----------



## 8ball (Mar 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Perhaps some health professionals (or others) can help me with this.
> 
> I don't understand what happens when someone gets this virus and recovers. At first they don't have any virus in their system, then they get infected and the virus multiplies in their system. Initially at least they don't have immunity, no one does, so the virus takes hold. What does the virus do? what does it act on? and assuming the patient recovers and develops immunity what has happened in the patient? Is it that their immune system has beaten back the virus and thus they now have immunity? or has the virus just run its course and died out naturally in that patient?



NOT A HEALTH PROFESSIONAL (though kind of in the healthcare area - may be helping with a Covid-19 vaccine trial very shortly):

Virus gets in.
Dice roll against innate immunity system.
If virus wins dice roll, starts making more viruses  by repurposing human as virus-replication kit.
Person emits viruses.
Viruses multiply in person and start popping cells.
Immune system notices.
Multiple-choice lurgee occurs.  More dice are rolled.
Further emission of viruses occurs.
Assuming a double-six is not rolled, recovery occurs at some point.
Contagion ceases somewhere around here if not before.
Amount of immunity generated is currently unknown, but seems not especially powerful and not especially long-lasting from what I know at this point.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 11, 2020)

8ball said:


> ..
> Assuming a double-six is not rolled, recovery occurs at some point.
> Contagion ceases somewhere around here if not before.
> Amount of immunity generated is currently unknown, but seems not especially powerful and not especially long-lasting from what I know at this point.


From that point above, (recovery) what happens to the virus units in the body? are they killed by the immune system? or do they die of their own accord because they ran out of fuel? I am sort of assuming the immune system in a patient that recovers wins and beats the virus back but I don't know.


----------



## 8ball (Mar 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> From that point above, (recovery) what happens to the virus units in the body? are they killed by the immune system? or do they die of their own accord because they ran out of fuel? I am sort of assuming the immune system in a patient that recovers wins and beats the virus back but I don't know.



Those viruses are then gone, generally speaking, as far as I know.  Antibodies will remain for some time to alert the immune system if any sufficiently similar virus comes along later.  Effectiveness and duration varies.  The virus doesn't really have "fuel" - all it really is is a set of instructions for replicating its own code and a little protein "coat" which it puts on when it goes outside a humans replication machinery.

Some viruses (like herpes) can chill in a kind of dormant state in certain cells, and cause issues elsewhere, but I think (not sure) that this is not one of them.  Others may re-activate on re-infection/immune system issues (as in chicken pox becoming shingles later on).


----------



## prunus (Mar 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Perhaps some health professionals (or others) can help me with this.
> 
> I don't understand what happens when someone gets this virus and recovers. At first they don't have any virus in their system, then they get infected and the virus multiplies in their system. Initially at least they don't have immunity, no one does, so the virus takes hold. What does the virus do? what does it act on? and assuming the patient recovers and develops immunity what has happened in the patient? Is it that their immune system has beaten back the virus and thus they now have immunity? or has the virus just run its course and died out naturally in that patient?



E2a: I should add I’m not a healthcare professional, but I did study biology and worked on research into RNA virus (and related endogenous virus) genetics for a number of years, so there is some somewhat out of date knowledge sloshing about in here somewhere I hope. 

Basically: on initial infection of someone who has no immunity the virus will invade certain cells, hijack the cell’s protein factories and make copies of itself. It contains the instructions to be able to do this. Eventually the cell will rupture and release many copies of the virus per cell infected, rapidly multiplying the number of viruses in the patient.

The body recognises this as an invasion, but at the beginning has no specialised tools to deal with it - it uses its generic tools to try to eat (almost literally) all the viruses (if it can do this faster than the virus can reproduce, infection doesn't take hold, and eventually there will be no viruses left).

Assuming the virus manages to get past the naive defences (and they are pretty good at it) the infection will progress.  These particular viruses attack cells by using a particular protein on the cell's surface as a 'door' (ACE2 receptor, involved in the blood pressure regulation system).  These receptors are particularly common in the lining of the lungs, also gut, kidneys and heart, hence these systems are the primary sites.

The immune system is 'learning' how to recognise this virus, and making antibodies to target it - these are proteins designed to stick to the surface of the virus, which a) can directly impede the virus's function but more importantly b) flag the virus for assassination by the body's most lethal killer cells, who will target and kill all viruses they can - at this point it's basically an arms race - can the virus reproduce faster than the killer cells can kill them?

Assuming the killer cells win, eventually there are no viruses left - all killed ('eaten', broken down and excreted).  The immune system will keep the antibodies in its production 'library' for some time (varies for different pathogens) - while in the library, any virus entering the body will get 'tagged' and rapidly killed by the killer cells (which are much better at it than the generic defences), this is being 'immune'.

If I remember my immunology classes correctly...


----------



## weltweit (Mar 11, 2020)

WHO have apparently now classified this outbreak as a pandemic. 

Source R4 News


----------



## 8ball (Mar 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> WHO have apparently now classified this outbreak as a pandemic.
> 
> Source R4 News



Yep.  Announcement from Government in 45 mins...


----------



## 8ball (Mar 11, 2020)

prunus said:


> Basically: on initial infection of someone who has no immunity the virus will invade certain cells, hijack the cell’s protein factories and make copies of itself. It contains the instructions to be able to do this. Eventually the cell will rupture and release many copies of the virus per cell infected, rapidly multiplying the number of viruses in the patient.
> 
> The body recognises this as an invasion, but at the beginning has no specialised tools to deal with it - it uses its generic tools to try to eat (almost literally) all the viruses (if it can do this faster than the virus can reproduce, infection doesn't take hold, and eventually there will be no viruses left).
> 
> ...



Yep, I totally glossed over the ‘acquired immunity’ bit there.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 11, 2020)

Flavour said:


> I see the WHO has finally called it a pandemic - just after our poll swung to majority "serious". Coincidence?


elbows seen earlier today.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 11, 2020)

prunus said:


> ..
> The immune system is 'learning' how to recognise this virus, and making antibodies to target it - these are proteins designed to stick to the surface of the virus, which a) can directly impede the virus's function but more importantly b) flag the virus for assassination by the body's most lethal killer cells, who will target and kill all viruses they can - at this point it's basically an arms race - can the virus reproduce faster than the killer cells can kill them?
> 
> Assuming the killer cells win, eventually there are no viruses left - all killed ('eaten', broken down and excreted).  The immune system will keep the antibodies in its production 'library' for some time (varies for different pathogens) - while in the library, any virus entering the body will get 'tagged' and rapidly killed by the killer cells (which are much better at it than the generic defences), this is being 'immune'.
> ...


Thanks prunus, interesting post. What are the body's killer cells called? And does the eradication of the virus cells in someone who has recovered mean it is hard to test that someone has had the virus but is no longer infected by it? Because I was wondering if there could after a while be an army of post infection immune people available to help caring for the vulnerable groups, with no risk of infecting them.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 11, 2020)

8ball said:


> Yep.  Announcement from Government in 45 mins...


Do you know if it's going to be a press conference or just a statement?


----------



## elbows (Mar 11, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> Do you know if it's going to be a press conference or just a statement?



Its Hancock in parliament, I've been talking about it in the UK thread.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 11, 2020)

Amazon’s Coronavirus safeguarding advice for delivery drivers/DA’s (delivery associates).



Spoiler


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 11, 2020)

<SNIP> gone like a gone off thing.


----------



## Cid (Mar 11, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> Interesting twitter thread.
> 
> <offending twitter thread>



Hmm... lot of that looks inaccurate.


----------



## elbows (Mar 11, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> Interesting twitter thread.



Misinformation, has come up before. Please remove.


----------



## Numbers (Mar 11, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> elbows seen earlier today.


I suggested elbows should be team leader for this, with 2hats as consultant, some time ago.


E2a:  official advice even is to cough into your elbow, says it all.


----------



## elbows (Mar 11, 2020)

I'm not sure they have many vacancies for gadflys.


----------



## bimble (Mar 11, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Amazon’s Coronavirus safeguarding advice for delivery drivers/DA’s (delivery associates).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What are you supposed to use to clean steering wheel etc?


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> Misinformation, has come up before. Please remove.



No problem...can you summarise what's 'wrong' with the info?


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 11, 2020)

Girlfriend went to Boots today and all hand sanitizer was sold out - staff said people were queuing before shop opened and were literally fighting for it off the shelves 

Doesn’t take much for civility to crumble and panic set in.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 11, 2020)

.


----------



## phillm (Mar 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> I'm not sure they have many vacancies for gadflys.


 we need you here


----------



## ruffneck23 (Mar 11, 2020)

this one isnt too bad


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 11, 2020)

bimble said:


> What are you supposed to use to clean steering wheel etc?



No idea - and Amazon aren’t providing us with anything, like hand sanitizer - they’ve told us we can use face/surgical masks if we wish - again, not provided by Amazon.

At the debrief this morning I asked Amazon if they were going to reduce the size of the routes as they are supposed to be 9hrs but usually take longer as they are so heavy - and these new procedures they want us to apply will increase drop time - I was met with a blank stare and a mumble before Amazon bod moved onto something else.


----------



## elbows (Mar 11, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> No problem...can you summarise what's 'wrong' with the info?



The stuff about symptoms is wrong (as we will see when the government ramp up the campaign to stay at home when ill).
The stuff about 26-27C is wrong.
The stuff about drinking and gargling is pretty useless (except that you should typically drink plenty of liquids when ill)
The description of how the pneumonia happens is wrong.
The nasal congestion thing is just weird rubbish.

Frankly, so much is wrong that anything in there that might be right is tainted and should be discovered via sources that arent so crappy. So much is wrong with this one that its just like one of those rubbish chain things that people just make up to see it spread.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> The stuff about symptoms is wrong (as we will see when the government ramp up the campaign to stay at home when ill).
> The stuff about 26-27C is wrong.
> The stuff about drinking and gargling is pretty useless (except that you should typically drink plenty of liquids when ill)
> The description of how the pneumonia happens is wrong.
> ...



Appreciated. 

I just don't know how people find the time or motivation to bother being so fucking crap!

Thanks again.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 11, 2020)

I mean...WTAF?









						Man arrested after licking his fingers and wiping them on pole in train
					

Subway train was withdrawn from service to be disinfected, transport authority says




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Numbers (Mar 11, 2020)

ruffneck23 said:


> this one isnt too bad



I love Brian Cox.


----------



## 8ball (Mar 11, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> Do you know if it's going to be a press conference or just a statement?



I haven’t seen anything - was sure I saw something about something earlier.


----------



## bimble (Mar 11, 2020)

More really frightening stuff from Italian hospitals where staff are having to make decisions about who gets intensive care and who doesn’t. Message is that to avoid these horrific choices having to be made in a couple of weeks we have to make the awkward but less morally difficult one of enforcing distancing now.

instead, some football team from Milan and their fans who can’t play at home are coming to liverpool ?









						The Extraordinary Decisions Facing Italian Doctors
					

There are now simply too many patients for each one of them to receive adequate care.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 11, 2020)

Is it still impossible for Britain to avoid an Italy like outbreak? 

Would not the earlier shutdown of events, the distancing and working from home wherever possible, and the like - other measures - not likely reduce the overall level of our own outbreak?


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Is it still impossible for Britain to avoid an Italy like outbreak?
> 
> Would not the earlier shutdown of events, the distancing and working from home wherever possible, and the like - other measures - not likely reduce the overall level of our own outbreak?



Every bit of  advice coming out of Italy i've seen suggests shut downs, social distancing etc as a matter of precaution/prevention NOT as a response to the expected dramatic increase of infections.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 11, 2020)

bimble said:


> More really frightening stuff from Italian hospitals where staff are having to make decisions about who gets intensive care and who doesn’t. Message is that to avoid these horrific choices having to be made in a couple of weeks we have to make the awkward but less morally difficult one of enforcing distancing now.
> 
> instead, some football team from Milan and their fans who can’t play at home are coming to liverpool ?
> 
> ...



Atletico Madrid is the team playing Liverpool tonight. Point still stands though.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 11, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> Every bit of  advice coming out of Italy i've seen suggests shut downs, social distancing etc as a matter of precaution/prevention NOT as a response to the expected dramatic increase of infections.


That is all very well - but I suspect Italy had more cases than we have now before they even started testing for it, so I am not sure I would take Italian advice too strongly.


----------



## bimble (Mar 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Is it still impossible for Britain to avoid an Italy like outbreak?
> 
> Would not the earlier shutdown of events, the distancing and working from home wherever possible, and the like - other measures - not likely reduce the overall level of our own outbreak?


Yep but Gov not doing that so far, they are still telling everyone to carry on as normal unless they are ill in which case phone 111.


weltweit said:


> That is all very well - but I suspect Italy had more cases than we have now before they even started testing for it, so I am not sure I would take Italian advice too strongly.


we are estimated to be 13 days behind Italy and not taking any drastic measures at all just buying loo roll.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> That is all very well - but I suspect Italy had more cases than we have now before they even started testing for it, so I am not sure I would take Italian advice too strongly.



I mean what do they know anyway?   

We have no clue how many cases we have here. Even the lying, prevaricating government are saying they expect it to get much worse etc.

They have more ICU beds and are at breaking point, practically making choices who to save?

But what did the Romans ever do for us?

Let's take it on the chin.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 11, 2020)

So far we have relied on the airlines stopping flights for commercial reasons to restrict incoming individuals from infected areas, there has been slim to no advice from government on that matter, and we still have mass events like Cheltenham going ahead with tens of thousands in close proximity. 

It almost seems government will accept mass UK infections before they take further action, rather than moving to stamp it out at an earlier stage while infections are still low.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 11, 2020)

I know people most at risk are old people with underlying health problems, but what percentage of deaths are not old people with underlying health problems?


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> So far we have relied on the airlines stopping flights for commercial reasons to restrict incoming individuals from infected areas, there has been slim to no advice from government on that matter, and we still have mass events like Cheltenham going ahead with tens of thousands in close proximity.
> 
> It almost seems government will accept mass UK infections before they take further action, rather than moving to stamp it out at an earlier stage while infections are still low.



Yes. We know. So why are you also saying ignore the Italians?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 11, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> ..
> But what did the Romans ever do for us?
> 
> Let's take it on the chin.


What I am saying is what about acting now, before we get into that state?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 11, 2020)

bimble said:


> ..
> we are estimated to be 13 days behind Italy and not taking any drastic measures at all just buying loo roll.


People do seem to be saying that, I am not sure it is absolutely unalterable fate ..


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Mar 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Is it still impossible for Britain to avoid an Italy like outbreak?
> 
> Would not the earlier shutdown of events, the distancing and working from home wherever possible, and the like - other measures - not likely reduce the overall level of our own outbreak?


Restrictions could start _now_. They could be phased in and it would cause less overall panic and be easier to deal with, and it would slow transmission. But they won't, because it would mean rich people made less money - the government will wait until the absolute last minute before putting on restrictions then throw up their hands and say "what else could we have done".


----------



## weltweit (Mar 11, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> Yes. We know. So why are you also saying ignore the Italians?


All I am saying is that I don't see we have to follow their infection rates. 

Like it or not, I believe Italy didn't start a testing regime earlier enough, I think they had infected people walking about for perhaps 2 months before they realised the seriousness of their situation, hence the early deaths and hence the large growth in their infected population and later raised levels of deaths ..


----------



## ice-is-forming (Mar 11, 2020)

Australian gov announced $2,4 billion extra into the health care system yesterday. And will today announce billions for people to keep the economy afloat through this. Stuff like money to keep paying apprentices, casual employees with no sick leave, extra one off payments for people on benefits, and hand outs for small businesses.

In my workplace (  vulnerable people with a @Gov address) we are being asked to work from home if we even have a sniffle ( no travel or traceable contacts) and all travel plans have been pulled, even locally. So I can't even visit the office 30k away. If you go on holiday anywhere you have to self isolate for 14 days before coming back to work. At the moment we can still attend network/business meetings but not shake hands and social distance.

We have a strict protocol with hand washing by the door ie: no entry /exit without hand washing. 

My towns runs on tourist economy, and that's another part of the list that'll get Gov handout money. I haven't seen any events pulled yet, but I expect to soon. There is only one hot spot so far in Sydney, with one school closed. 

Personally I know  a lot of people who have family and friends who are already living off grid miles from anywhere, and plans are being made for using these places as bolt holes to ride it out. But I don't think Australia has too high numbers yet. 115 cases and 3 deaths of elderly people. Plus we have travel/airport restrictions etc.. and no borders. 

Government do a daily update here.. 









						Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic
					

Find information about the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, how to protect yourself and your family, where and when you can get vaccinated, and the current situation in Australia.




					www.health.gov.au


----------



## magneze (Mar 11, 2020)

The linked article at the end is also very good. Cancel Everything


----------



## elbows (Mar 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> All I am saying is that I don't see we have to follow their infection rates.
> 
> Like it or not, I believe Italy didn't start a testing regime earlier enough, I think they had infected people walking about for perhaps 2 months before they realised the seriousness of their situation, hence the early deaths and hence the large growth in their infected population and later raised levels of deaths ..



We've got previously undetected cases dying in UK hospitals and you've been following events around the globe since January. I would say that I'm therefore surprised by your ability to maintain that stance, except I'm not.


----------



## elbows (Mar 11, 2020)

S☼I said:


> I know people most at risk are old people with underlying health problems, but what percentage of deaths are not old people with underlying health problems?



I'm afraid thats the area where probably the biggest reality check for people is yet to come. I myself struggle to talk about it much, and only partly because I dont feel like I have a full and accurate picture yet. I'll do the reading and say more about this tomorrow if thats what people really want.


----------



## MrSki (Mar 11, 2020)

Is the UK Government's response a deliberate attempt to reduce the burden on the NHS & Welfare state? Supposedly 14 days behind Italy which is on total lockdown & the UK.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> We've got previously undetected cases dying in UK hospitals and you've been following events around the globe since January. I would say that I'm therefore surprised by your ability to maintain that stance, except I'm not.


What do you think of the figures coming out of Singapore?


----------



## MrSki (Mar 11, 2020)

magneze said:


> The linked article at the end is also very good. Cancel Everything


Your Avatar makes me think you are grinning on serious posts. Must try & remember it is just your Avatar!


----------



## Supine (Mar 11, 2020)

Very good article on covid growth rates. Posted so I can read it properly when not tired!


----------



## Numbers (Mar 11, 2020)

MrSki said:


> Your Avatar makes me think you are grinning on serious posts. Must try & remember it is just your Avatar!


You have a grinning cow brother


----------



## MrSki (Mar 11, 2020)

Numbers said:


> You have a grinning cow brother


I know but it is not a big grin with thumbs up!


----------



## two sheds (Mar 11, 2020)

only because cows don't have thumbs


----------



## kropotkin (Mar 11, 2020)

Supine said:


> Very good article on covid growth rates. Posted so I can read it properly when not tired!


That is excellent- thanks


----------



## elbows (Mar 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> What do you think of the figures coming out of Singapore?



They are interesting, but I need months more to pass before I think I know what story they are really telling.

Its one of the last countries I would compare to the UK, thats for sure. What has happened there so far according to their numbers is not what anybody thinks is going to happen to countries in europe or the UK.

In fact, Singapore is now an example of a country which has started picking up a few cases with recent UK travel history. When that happened with countries other than our own, we took those imports as a sign that quite notable levels of infection were probably occurring in the countries that people were travelling from, even if other data from those countries didnt show such an outbreak. Why apply different rules to the UK? Now granted the Singapore evidence is rather limited so far, most of these cases had travel to other countries as well as the UK recently too, they arent proof that they got the infection in the UK. I think one case doesnt have such a history mentioned on the site at least.






						COVID-19: Cases in Singapore
					

Visit MOH’s website for the latest update on COVID-19 cases




					www.gov.sg
				




There is no point hoping the UK turns out like countries that arent showing the same sort of signs or numbers. Compare it to countries that have had deaths, cases discovered in hospital, politicians testing positive, and some signs of exporting cases.


----------



## magneze (Mar 11, 2020)

MrSki said:


> Your Avatar makes me think you are grinning on serious posts. Must try & remember it is just your Avatar!


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 11, 2020)

So, Russia and Singapore seem to have coronavirus under control/small cases hardly any deaths?


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 11, 2020)

Interesting snippet from Italy  re EU assistance.


> Italy has already asked to activate the European Union Mechanism of Civil Protection for the supply of medical equipment for individual protection. But, unfortunately, not a single EU country responded to the Commission’s call. Only China responded bilaterally. Certainly, this is not a good sign of European solidarity.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 11, 2020)

Supine said:


> Very good article on covid growth rates. Posted so I can read it properly when not tired!



elbows what’s your take on this article?


----------



## elbows (Mar 12, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> elbows what’s your take on this article?



Its mostly stuff that has come up to some extent here before. I wont notice if they have got some details wrong. I dont think I have anything useful to add to or criticise about it, other than some things it treats as facts are assumptions.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 12, 2020)

Trump ends flights from Europe (apart from the UK).









						Coronavirus: Trump suspends travel from Europe to US
					

The US restricts arrivals from 26 European countries in a bid to tackle the coronavirus outbreak.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## pesh (Mar 12, 2020)

and he looks nervous and really doesnt sound very well


----------



## elbows (Mar 12, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Trump ends flights from Europe (apart from the UK).
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Well thats probably ensured that there will be plenty of focus on any cases the UK ends up exporting to the USA, and the general picture of the outbreak here compared to the rest of Europe.


----------



## elbows (Mar 12, 2020)

pesh said:


> and he looks nervous and really doesnt sound very well



I've only just started watching his remarks to the American people. I have paused to note here that he has quite deliberately had it referred to as a 'foreign virus' in this speech, shortly after being sure to remind everyone that it started in China.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 12, 2020)

pesh said:


> and he looks nervous and really doesnt sound very well



Did his nose grow dramatically while he was speaking?



> The virus will not have a chance against us,” Trump said. “No nation is more prepared or more resilient than the United States.”


----------



## pesh (Mar 12, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Did his nose grow dramatically while he was speaking?


not even when he gargled 'we're all in it together'


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 12, 2020)

New video interview with prof Neil Ferguson. Not sure it tells us anything new really, his key point is countries now need to decide between a tight lockdown lasting 12-18 months, or letting the thing run its course while protecting the vulnerable as much as possible.

A hint that he doesn’t believe the Japanese figures and a warning of “dislocating social changes” in all countries, ie things are going to get really bad.


----------



## Kaka Tim (Mar 12, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> New video interview with prof Neil Ferguson. Not sure it tells us anything new really, his key point is countries now need to decide between a tight lockdown lasting 12-18 months, or letting the thing run its course while protecting the vulnerable as much as possible.
> 
> A hint that he doesn’t believe the Japanese figures and a warning of “dislocating social changes” in all countries, ie things are going to get really bad.



Hmm. That sounds plausible. I cant see any country doing lockdown for anything like that amount of time. But if that is the case, is there any point doing it at all? Buys time to set up mitigation measures?


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 12, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> Hmm. That sounds plausible. I cant see any country doing lockdown for anything like that amount of time. But if that is the case, is there any point doing it at all? Buys time to set up mitigation measures?



Well I think his point was you’d need to do it that long to get enough people vaccinated. But I agree it won’t happen. When the chips are down, letting a lot of people die will be thought the lesser of two evils compared to crashing the world economy.


----------



## Kaka Tim (Mar 12, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Well I think his point was you’d need to do it that long to get enough people vaccinated. But I agree it won’t happen. When the chips are down, letting a lot of people die will be thought the lesser of two evils compared to crashing the world economy.



it probably is. the social and human costs to an extended lockdown are huge and will kill many thousands. As will a massive global recession.


----------



## Brainaddict (Mar 12, 2020)

So Trump has banned travel from Europe, excluding the UK, but they don't seem to have thought of the Eurostar or people just taking short-haul to London, then going on as a separate flight. I'm wondering if this will result in a surge of Europeans (and UKians in Europe) coming through London, and potentially becoming a vector for the virus...


----------



## prunus (Mar 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Thanks prunus, interesting post. What are the body's killer cells called? And does the eradication of the virus cells in someone who has recovered mean it is hard to test that someone has had the virus but is no longer infected by it? Because I was wondering if there could after a while be an army of post infection immune people available to help caring for the vulnerable groups, with no risk of infecting them.



At a top level the first line defence cells are called phagocytes, the specialist ones are called killer T cells; my knowledge is rusty so I thought I’d quickly read up on the system before replying to avoid giving out wrong information - I came across this  Viral Attack | Ask A Biologist which covers the whole process very clearly in much more detail and without the mistakes I would likely add, so I’m going to use the better part of valour and retire in its favour, if that’s ok...

In answer to your other questions - it’s not more difficult per se to test for post-infection immunity, it’s just a different test from the one being used at the moment, and takes longer to develop: the current test involves looking for the RNA of the virus directly, whereas post infection there’s obviously no virus left, so one has to look instead for the existence of the antibodies to it that were produced in the course of the successful fight. This is relatively easy to do once one has identified the antibody in question, but that takes time. It is needed though and people are working on it the world over.

Absolutely there could be an army of immune individuals to help care for those that need it, that’s the goal really, whether than immunity comes through having survived the disease or by vaccination (which is still a way off). The problem is systematically identifying immune people (though the register of confirmed cases can be presumed to be a list of immune people for those that survive, it’s not certain without an antibody test, plus that list probably doesn’t cover everybody, given the patchiness of testing).

(Aside - the fact that we can sequence an entire viral genome, develop target sequences against it and make a functional RNA amplification test that returns results in hours within a few weeks of a new virus turning up seems like witchcraft to me, as someone who used to do this kind of thing 25+ years ago when it would have been months of labour.  This would have been a different kettle of fish had it occurred at the end of the last century, so we can count one small blessing at least. )


----------



## Flavour (Mar 12, 2020)

Bummer for any Americans in Europe. Apparently Tom hanks has it. And the NBA has been canceled too. Foreign virus.


----------



## tommers (Mar 12, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> Interesting snippet from Italy  re EU assistance.


Nice. Coronavirus and Brexit all in one. Well done.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 12, 2020)

Britain isn't exactly showing itself to be a world leader in virus control measures - is there any reason for Trump exempting it from the ban other than that he owns a golf course in Scotland?


----------



## bimble (Mar 12, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Britain isn't exactly showing itself to be a world leader in virus control measures - is there any reason for Trump exempting it from the ban other than that he owns a golf course in Scotland?


Simplest explanation I can think of is racism? We speak English so aren’t as foreign as the foreigners with their Foreign Virus.  It’s mad whatever the reason. If people do start using UK to fly to America i expect people here will start complaining about the ‘special relationship’.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 12, 2020)

Anyone seen the video of a British bloke returning from Italy recording himself walk through the airport arrivals without being checked?


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 12, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Britain isn't exactly showing itself to be a world leader in virus control measures - is there any reason for Trump exempting it from the ban other than that he owns a golf course in Scotland?



Money, ideology and yes to counter Brexit negativity about US/UK trade deals.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 12, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Anyone seen the video of a British bloke returning from Italy recording himself walk through the airport arrivals without being checked?


Yup. Last week.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 12, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Britain isn't exactly showing itself to be a world leader in virus control measures - is there any reason for Trump exempting it from the ban other than that he owns a golf course in Scotland?



I am assuming because we have so few confirmed cases compared with the mainland, we are currently on 6.7 per one million  people, most of the rest are on 25-100, with Italy on a whopping 206.1.


----------



## maomao (Mar 12, 2020)

What about other non-schengen countries? Ireland?


----------



## bimble (Mar 12, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> I am assuming because we have so few confirmed cases compared with the mainland, we are currently on 6.7 per one million  people, most of the rest are on 25-100, with Italy on a whopping 206.1.


Should’ve had Slovakia (or similar) as the exception if it was based on those numbers. Doesn’t hold up.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 12, 2020)

maomao said:


> What about other non-schengen countries? Ireland?



Ireland is exempt too.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 12, 2020)

bimble said:


> Should’ve had Slovakia (or similar) as the exception if it was based on those numbers. Doesn’t hold up.



You are expecting Trump to make sense?


----------



## bimble (Mar 12, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> You are expecting Trump to make sense?


No you are !


----------



## maomao (Mar 12, 2020)

bimble said:


> Should’ve had Slovakia (or similar) as the exception if it was based on those numbers. Doesn’t hold up.


It's in Schengen. It would make no sense to ban travel from countries but allow it from countries that don't have borders with them.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 12, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> Yup. Last week.



Scary stuff.


----------



## Cid (Mar 12, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> Hmm. That sounds plausible. I cant see any country doing lockdown for anything like that amount of time. But if that is the case, is there any point doing it at all? Buys time to set up mitigation measures?



The huge factor here is strain on health services... even with only a 1% infection rate, and 1% of that critical care... that’s 7,000 odd additional icu patients in the UK.


----------



## ruffneck23 (Mar 12, 2020)

I'm struggling to get my head round trumps europe flight ban , I'm not an intellectual giant ( as im sure a lot of you will agree  ) , I'd like to think it's a good idea , but I'm not sure its that good an idea.

Someone please help me understand...


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 12, 2020)

bimble said:


> Simplest explanation I can think of is racism? We speak English so aren’t as foreign as the foreigners with their Foreign Virus.  It’s mad whatever the reason. If people do start using UK to fly to America i expect people here will start complaining about the ‘special relationship’.



And of course concentrating all the European travellers on UK-US flights (by forcing them to fly via UK) guarantees the fewer planes flying into the US will be much fuller. 8 hours on a transatlantic plane trip packed full will ensure maximum chance of someone onboard passing it onto many others. Genius.


----------



## elbows (Mar 12, 2020)

ruffneck23 said:


> I'm struggling to get my head round trumps europe flight ban , I'm not an intellectual giant ( as im sure a lot of you will agree  ) , I'd like to think it's a good idea , but I'm not sure its that good an idea.
> 
> Someone please help me understand...



Its a distraction from the locally transmitted cases that are already spreading throughout the USA, and distracts from the complete disaster that the US testing regime has been.

Its a way to look tough, look like you are taking a decisive step, something to brag about later. And its a way to underline the foreign origins of the virus, and play to your isolationist base.

Its main redeeming feature is that it tells people very loudly that this is not business as usual, this is not just an extra flu season, this is not a media lie or democrat hoax. So despite the dubious substance to what he is saying, it will probably also have behavioural effects that are in tune with reducing the spread of the virus.


----------



## ruffneck23 (Mar 12, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its a distraction from the locally transmitted cases that are already spreading throughout the USA, and distracts from the complete disaster that the US testing regime has been.
> 
> Its a way to look tough, look like you are taking a decisive step, something to brag about later. And its a way to underline the foreign origins of the virus, and play to your isolationist base.
> 
> Its main redeeming feature is that it tells people very loudly that this is not business as usual, this is not just an extra flu season, this is not a media lie or democrat hoax. So despite the dubious substance to what he is saying, it will probably also have behavioural effects that are in tune with reducing the spread of the virus.


thanks


----------



## 8ball (Mar 12, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its main redeeming feature is that it tells people very loudly that this is not business as usual, this is not just an extra flu season, this is not a media lie or democrat hoax. So despite the dubious substance to what he is saying, it will probably also have behavioural effects that are in tune with reducing the spread of the virus.



Good points, but I'm unsure about this last part.  By distracting from the local spread of the virus and, in essence, 'locking the disease outside', you're making the disease something 'foreign' and 'outside the border'.

I have my doubts as to whether this will lead to significant internal behavioural changes.


----------



## elbows (Mar 12, 2020)

8ball said:


> Good points, but I'm unsure about this last part.  By distracting from the local spread of the virus and, in essence, 'locking the disease outside', you're making the disease something 'foreign' and 'outside the border'.
> 
> I have my doubts as to whether this will lead to significant internal behavioural changes.



I know what you mean, and if this measure was happening at a different stage of the USAs own outbreak I would be more worried about that aspect. But since its happening at the same time as so much else is going on, I dont think we will ever really get to test my theory, it wont be possible for me to separate the effects of his european ban from other US domestic news such as the NBA suspending their season.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 12, 2020)

8ball said:


> Good points, but I'm unsure about this last part.  By distracting from the local spread of the virus and, in essence, 'locking the disease outside', you're making the disease something 'foreign' and 'outside the border'.
> 
> I have my doubts as to whether this will lead to significant internal behavioural changes.



When Trump said he wanted to take America back to how it was in the "good old days," I definitely wasn't expecting a revival of anti-Italian riots.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 12, 2020)

Brits in Cambodia Phnom Penh now confirmed as infected


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 12, 2020)

8ball said:


> I have my doubts as to whether this will lead to significant internal behavioural changes.


America is the place I'm worried about the most. Lots of religious idiocy, terrible healthcare system based on insurance, terrible employment rights system so nobody wants to call in sick, and a moron in charge. They're going to be so fucked by this ... and then fucked again by the fallout, with people going bankrupt from medical bills.


----------



## ska invita (Mar 12, 2020)

Someone posted today a link to a WHO spokesperson saying distancing and lockdowns might have to last a year to 18 months. Could someone link me to it please, I cant find it again now. Thanks so much.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 12, 2020)

Ireland shutting all schools, colleges and universities + larger indoor and outdoor events.


----------



## 8ball (Mar 12, 2020)

Wilf said:


> Ireland shutting all schools, colleges and universities + larger indoor and outdoor events.



They don't have a single confirmed case of internal transmission yet as far as I know.
Is this the most cautious response we've seen?


----------



## Wilf (Mar 12, 2020)

8ball said:


> They don't have a single confirmed case of internal transmission yet as far as I know.
> Is this the most cautious response we've seen?


I also read, maybe on here, that they are spending way more per head than we are (not sure how that stands after the budget). I don't see johnson/whitty going for anything like this yet, but having a common border means this ramps the pressure up a bit more.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 12, 2020)

Civil servants in the UK have all been in a big mtg since 1pm. Tele conferencing and so on. Announcement soon.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 12, 2020)

Amazing how well Hong Kong and Singapore have managed to hold case numbers so low despite being among the world's most crowded places.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 12, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Amazing how well Hong Kong and Singapore have managed to hold case numbers so low despite being among the world's most crowded places.
> 
> View attachment 201402


Do you think they are reporting accurately Yoss?


----------



## Plumdaff (Mar 12, 2020)

There's a strong rumour going around work (Welsh NHS) that Public Health Wales will be announcing schools closures this afternoon.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 12, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Do you think they are reporting accurately Yoss?



I think so - in Hong Kong, at least, medical authorities seem very strong-willed and would be unlikely to go along with any government attempt at a cover-up.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 12, 2020)

elbows said:


> We've got previously undetected cases dying in UK hospitals and you've been following events around the globe since January. I would say that I'm therefore surprised by your ability to maintain that stance, except I'm not.


elbows - perhaps my use of words was not elegant enough, but what I was saying is pretty much what the WHO DG said just yesterday: 


> We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of this pandemic.
> 
> If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace, and mobilize their people in the response, those with a handful of cases can prevent those cases becoming clusters, and those clusters becoming community transmission.
> 
> ...











						WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 11 March 2020
					






					www.who.int


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Mar 12, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I think so - in Hong Kong, at least, medical authorities seem very strong-willed and would be unlikely to go along with any government attempt at a cover-up.


They also have experience and infrastructure from SARS. There was a piece on the World Service about it earlier today - quite how nasty it was seems to have passed me by at the time.


----------



## bimble (Mar 12, 2020)

BBC News - BBC News Special, Coronavirus Pandemic
					

Live coverage as the UK government updates the public on its coronavirus plan.




					www.bbc.co.uk
				



Science stuff starts 17 or so mins in. I kind of hate to admit it but i do get it now, why the gov response is as it is.


----------



## Supine (Mar 12, 2020)

bimble said:


> BBC News - BBC News Special, Coronavirus Pandemic
> 
> 
> Live coverage as the UK government updates the public on its coronavirus plan.
> ...



Yeah, I watched it for an hour. Impressed by the science guys.


----------



## lazythursday (Mar 12, 2020)

It seems far too reliant on behavioural psychology to me. It feels likefar too much of a gamble, implementing measures at precisely the right time, when existing evidence seems to show the quicker you do social distancing the better.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 12, 2020)

bimble said:


> BBC News - BBC News Special, Coronavirus Pandemic
> 
> 
> Live coverage as the UK government updates the public on its coronavirus plan.
> ...



Yeah, if you understand that, and the fact that is it supported by the Chief Medical Officers & governments of the other 3 nations of the UK, you can get over the knee-jerk action of blaming Johnson for inaction, because he's cunt.

Of course, he's a cunt, but he knows he's been handed a fucking red hot potato, which could blow up in his face, hence him reaching out for cross-party talks, he's a cunt, but he's not daft.


----------



## elbows (Mar 12, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Yeah, if you understand that, and the fact that is it supported by the Chief Medical Officers & governments of the other 3 nations of the UK, you can get over the knee-jerk action of blaming Johnson for inaction, because he's cunt.
> 
> Of course, he's a cunt, but he knows he's been handed a fucking red hot potato, which could blow up in his face, hence him reaching out for cross-party talks, he's a cunt, but he's not daft.



I think its pretty daft in a way to reveal the that 'science based approach' is currently thinking we are 4 weeks behind Italy. I mean thats not daft if they are right, but if they are wrong then everyone is going to know about it and have a really simple measure of the error. 

You can stick to your line about consensus but the more other countries diverge from what we are doing, the more the bad stages of the pandemic will be associated with Johnsons regime and the things they did and didnt do, and their choice of timing. Scotland is already starting to take its own measures with their own timing, and we are not at all privy to how much consensus between the devolved administrations and UK government there is in the meetings themselves.

Maybe their data and models and assumptions are all really good and most of my points will therefore be irrelevant. But they have taken a risk by so clearly taking their own distinct approach, and by giving us enough info about their timing assumptions that we will be able to tell if they've made a catastrophic error.


----------



## Supine (Mar 12, 2020)

We are world leaders in this kind of science. Boris would be a fool to go against their measured advise. We may not all agree with it but we need to respect their expertise IMHO.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 12, 2020)

FridgeMagnet said:


> They also have experience and infrastructure from SARS. There was a piece on the World Service about it earlier today - quite how nasty it was seems to have passed me by at the time.



Yep, the outbreak in Hong Kong was terrifying, by all accounts - there was this mystery illness and nobody was sure what was happening for months, it later turned out that authorities in mainland China had been hushing up the outbreak for months - much like today, if they'd shared information right from the start, the outbreak wouldn't have been nearly so bad. More than 400 medical workers in Hong Kong got SARS and at least nine of them died, so I think they'd be very resistant to any attempt now to keep the truth from the public.


----------



## elbows (Mar 12, 2020)

Supine said:


> We are world leaders in this kind of science. Boris would be a fool to go against their measured advise. We may not all agree with it but we need to respect their expertise IMHO.



Deference is dead, I shall take an evidence based approach by judging how accurate their timing estimates are and what level of disease burden we end up with compared to other countries. I can only do it with hindsight, so I am just setting the scene without knowing what will actually play out in it.


----------



## MrSki (Mar 12, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I think so - in Hong Kong, at least, medical authorities seem very strong-willed and would be unlikely to go along with any government attempt at a cover-up.


A large part of the population have been wearing face masks before the outbreak started.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 12, 2020)

MrSki said:


> A large part of the population have been wearing face masks before the outbreak started.



Yeah, when I saw that there were massive queues etc. in Hong Kong for masks that don't even protect against the virus properly I thought people were being kind of foolish, but turned out that since so many infected people don't have symptoms, having almost everybody wear face masks in public at all times apparently does a lot to make the outbreak less severe.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 12, 2020)

ska invita said:


> Someone posted today a link to a WHO spokesperson saying distancing and lockdowns might have to last a year to 18 months. Could someone link me to it please, I cant find it again now. Thanks so much.


You might be thinking of this fella?



Not WHO, but he does mention 18 months.


----------



## miss direct (Mar 12, 2020)

Schools and universities shut in Turkey for two weeks. And only one confirmed case.


----------



## Supine (Mar 12, 2020)

elbows said:


> Deference is dead, I shall take an evidence based approach by judging how accurate their timing estimates are and what level of disease burden we end up with compared to other countries. I can only do it with hindsight, so I am just setting the scene without knowing what will actually play out in it.



It’s easy to sit and be a judge after the fact. Some people have to make the big decisions while the situation develops.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 12, 2020)

Portugal by cut and paste: 

78 cases officially confirmed but one of my Portuguese neighbours , who is tbf slightly barmy , told me there were 280. I’ll take that with a punch of salt . 

*7:42 pm - Government will decree closing schools from Monday

Some universities have closed 

one strike called off and the same union cancels May Day celebrations *

Some beaches and markets also closing

*Football League suspends games and training indefinitely. 

First case if someone diagnosed and cured *


----------



## elbows (Mar 12, 2020)

Supine said:


> It’s easy to sit and be a judge after the fact. Some people have to make the big decisions while the situation develops.



Yes they do, and there are many hard and difficult decisions to make. But the press arent sitting around assuming that the government have got everything right, and neither am I.

There are a bunch of different approaches to morale and stuff like that, and its probably been clear for a month who I was likely to not be in tune with here on such matters. Although I will say that despite my gobby nature, I am actually taking many of my cues from what the mood is like more broadly. If its a week where the press and people here are questioning things quite strongly, I'm going to throw my lot in. If we end up in some especially bleak period where people decide to focus everything in a very different way, and put the blame to one side for a bit, I wont choose to spend all my time out on a limb still moaning about Johnson etc.

Given that its quite obvious now that telling people all about certain future steps they might want them to take is a deliberate part of the plan (today is at least the third time its happened), I do wonder if their behavioural science approah is also including something for those who are skeptical about the governments proposed timetable for action. They are giving people enough info to start doing certain things early if they want to, I assume they are sending deliberate signals that are expected to start influencing some percentage of behaviour earlier than their timetable strictly suggests.

I suppose its also possible that they are dragging their heels in regards mass gatherings because they'd rather those were cancelled by other means than central government decree. eg local decisions, or organisations own risk assessments. Or in the case of many sports, if I were them I would be assuming that most of those sports will eventually end up cancelled anyway, because as soon as participants in the sports teams themselves start falling ill, leagues etc quickly become unviable to continue.


----------



## redsquirrel (Mar 12, 2020)

Supine said:


> We are world leaders in this kind of science. Boris would be a fool to go against their measured advise. We may not all agree with it but we need to respect their expertise IMHO.


But "the science" doesn't say one thing, there are a variety of different views and all those views are political.
The idea that it is as simple as "respecting their expertise" reveals an extremely naive view of both scientific and political views


----------



## elbows (Mar 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> elbows - perhaps my use of words was not elegant enough, but what I was saying is pretty much what the WHO DG said just yesterday:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



But the UK government are not taking that approach, they are talking about large proportions of the population getting infected, herd immunity, and stuff like that. 

We have moved out of the containment phase. It would be one thing for you to hope the UK might still pull off containment if thats what the authorities were still saying they were trying to do, but its quite another when they have moved on and are trying to inform the public of the future picture that involves lots of infections and nothing like full contract tracing and cluster isolation at all.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 12, 2020)

elbows said:


> But the UK government are not taking that approach, they are talking about large proportions of the population getting infected, herd immunity, and stuff like that.
> 
> We have moved out of the containment phase. It would be one thing for you to hope the UK might still pull off containment if thats what the authorities were still saying they were trying to do, but its quite another when they have moved on and are trying to inform the public of the future picture that involves lots of infections and nothing like full contract tracing and cluster isolation at all.


Yes, the 'plan' is basically: We're all fucked, so please, please stay at home if you're sick and your gran/dad/neighbour might not die due to lack of beds. Eventually, we'll have all had it, and it's gonna be awfully sad, but then we can move on.

Not very reassuring.


----------



## lazythursday (Mar 12, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Yes, the 'plan' is basically: We're all fucked, so please, please stay at home if you're sick and your gran/dad/neighbour might not die due to lack of beds. Eventually, we'll have all had it, and it's gonna be awfully sad, but then we can move on.
> 
> Not very reassuring.


And I don't think it's particularly politically tenable especially if other countries successfully minimise outbreaks through early social distancing.


----------



## elbows (Mar 12, 2020)

And the thing is, that unless some funny business happens with the UK Covid-19 death statistics, it will probably be possible to test more strongly the idea that we could possibly be as long as 4 weeks behind Italy, within a matter of days. I know others will try to do that now using number of cases, but I mostly moved on to death (and ICU numbers in countries where that data is published) as the statistics to follow, so I shall apply that to UK-Italy comparisons too.


----------



## quimcunx (Mar 12, 2020)

It's not available now. I want to understand their thinking.


----------



## elbows (Mar 12, 2020)

Germany, with its somewhat mixed approach so far, with some features more in common with UK position and others not so much, should be an interesting one to compare to the UK in the weeks ahead. Their reported number of deaths is currently similar to the UK too. They are also mentioning 4-5 weeks, but in a different way to the UK.

 12m ago 21:14 



> Our Berlin correspondent Kate Connolly has just followed a press conference in Berlin headed by Angela Merkel, which followed hours of heated discussion between the leaders of Germany’s 16 Länder at an emergency meeting over what steps Germany’s biggest economy should be taking, after the number of people with coronavirus rose to 2695 and the number of dead, rose to six.
> 
> Many Germans were glued to livestreams of the press conference, expecting and hoping to hear some decisive measures, such as the closure of schools and kindergartens across the country. What they got was a sense of urgency which we have not heard up until now. In short, the meeting’s participants concluded that Germany is now in crisis mode, with a plan to be unrolled with immediate effect to restructure the country’s hospitals in order to boost the number of intensive care beds (currently there are 28,000 of them, 25,000 of which are equipped with respiratory apparatus). All non-urgent operations are to be postponed. The state will offer financial help to the health insurance companies to ensure this happens, Merkel said.





> She appealed to Germans to restrict social contact as much as possible. She also advised on the cancellation of all gatherings which are not strictly necessary. She said the next “4, 5 weeks” would be “very very crucial in determining the question as to what happens next”.
> 
> Markus Söder, premier of Bavaria and the leader of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria, admitted that the situation was “far more dramatic than we had thought even one or two weeks ago”. He said that the government’s quick introduction of so-called ‘Kurzarbeit’ - or work reduction policies introduced at the height of the banking crisis, which ensure workers receive their wages, and see employers compensated by the state “send an important signal to German businesses”. He coined a phrase used by Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank at the height of the Euro crisis, “we will do whatever it takes”.





> Although many Germans had hoped or expected they might do, the leaders did not decide on:
> 
> - a universal policy on closing schools, kindergartens and universities, although Söder did announce this evening that Bavaria (which currently has 500 people with coronavirus, and one death) will do so from tomorrow, becoming the first state to do so.
> 
> ...


----------



## HAL9000 (Mar 12, 2020)

Audio, jump to 12 minute 46 seconds,

How they managed to check large number of people and what they're doing to prepare for the summer.    More beds and more _intensive care respirator_s,  in case there's another virus peak in the summer.









						The Inquiry - How China turned the tide with coronavirus - BBC Sounds
					

China’s infection rate for coronavirus has dropped dramatically. What did they do?




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Supine (Mar 12, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> It's not available now. I want to understand their thinking.



Here you go ish









						UK government's coronavirus advice – and why it gave it
					

The action plan’s recommendations differed significantly from measures imposed in other countries




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## sihhi (Mar 12, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Why would it be British travellers, and not travellers from other European counties with far more cases?
> 
> Or -"Coronavirus cases in Greece tripled in recent days when travelers who had returned from a pilgrimage to Israel and Egypt were detected with the virus. Among them, a 65-year-old man battling pneumonia in a hospital isolation unit in the western port city of Patras." SOURCE
> 
> Why is a google search not coming up with anything to suggest that it is British travellers? Where have you got this from, twitter?



Greek tweets yes, there is 1 British confirmed, the other 4 were friends suspected but negative.
There are 119 official cases now with 10 of unknown origin.
Greece itself has now imported to India, so there are more cases floating around there.
The spread of the pandemic ultimately does boil down to international passenger travel.


----------



## elbows (Mar 12, 2020)

Not only are the USAs number of confirmed cases subject to extra uncertainty due to their testing problems, but judging by yesterdays King County update (location of care home cluster), some of the published death information is rather laggy too.



> The four deaths being reported today were all among previously reported cases. These additional deaths include:
> 
> 
> A woman in her 90s, Life Care Center resident, died on 3/3.
> ...







__





						Update: New state and local Orders issued to protect residents’ health from COVID-19 - King County
					






					www.kingcounty.gov


----------



## sihhi (Mar 12, 2020)

baldrick said:


> I'd just rather avoid unverified accounts being posted on this thread. There's another thread for that sort of thing, I think elbows intended this to be more grounded in reason and science, which I'm ok with even if it means we're a day or two behind the doom mongers on other threads



Here's some more Italian doctors  saying exactly the same thing 








						'Healthcare on brink of collapsing': Doctors share stories from inside the Italy coronavirus quarantine
					

I'm just back from Italy and "enjoying" my first day of self-isolation.   Getting a real picture of how bad the situation is, especially in Lombardy and the north, has been really difficult for TV news because movement is so restricted, access to the overwhelmed hospitals impossible and the...




					www.itv.com
				




If you're over 60 there's no intubation anymore because the equipment's not there.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 12, 2020)

elbows said:


> I suppose its also possible that they are dragging their heels in regards mass gatherings because they'd rather those were cancelled by other means than central government decree. eg local decisions, or organisations own risk assessments. Or in the case of many sports, if I were them I would be assuming that most of those sports will eventually end up cancelled anyway, because as soon as participants in the sports teams themselves start falling ill, leagues etc quickly become unviable to continue.



Organisations simply defer to central government decisions or Public Health England.

By the time participants start falling ill, as in Italy, it's already too late, the spread has already been magnified, I, for one don't understand the logic or the modelling, which conveniently is never actually shown.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 12, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Schools and universities shut in Turkey for two weeks. And only one confirmed case.



Civil servants banned from travel abroad for whatever reason.

Teachers not allowed to leave their cities and should stay at home (not sure how it will be policed)

All creches and kindergartens shut too.

Water bills will not be collected for the next 2 months.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 12, 2020)

Arsenal coach Mikel Arteta is another confirmed.


----------



## existentialist (Mar 12, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Wales 6/373.


These are beginning to look suspiciously like cricket scores.

Disclaimer: I know nearly as much about cricket as I do about football, and competitive barbed-wire crochet.


----------



## miss direct (Mar 12, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Civil servants banned from travel abroad for whatever reason.
> Teachers not allowed to leave their cities and should stay at home (not sure how it will be policed)
> All creches and kindergartens shut too.
> Water bills will not be collected for the next 2 months.



Quite a few differences there from what I’d heard about. No water bills from anyone? Like, it’s free? Or we just pay in two months? 

The rest of it sounds like post coup stuff. Glad I don’t work for the state anymore.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 12, 2020)

Health officials in Ohio estimate there are now 100,000 infections in that state alone.









						Ohio health official estimates 100,000 people in state have coronavirus
					

A top health official in Ohio estimated on Thursday that more than 100,000 people in the state have coronavirus, a shockingly high number that underscores the limited testing so far.Ohio …




					thehill.com


----------



## two sheds (Mar 12, 2020)

existentialist said:


> These are beginning to look suspiciously like cricket scores.
> 
> Disclaimer: I know nearly as much about cricket as I do about football, and competitive barbed-wire crochet.



Not English cricket scores they don't.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 13, 2020)

Fuck 









						Satellite images show Iran has built mass graves amid coronavirus outbreak
					

Trenches in city of Qom confirm worst fears about extent of the epidemic and the government’s subsequent cover-up




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 13, 2020)

Regarding the whole 'its all about the science' stuff that came up here earlier, I was reminded of the topic when I just read this in a European Centre for Disease Control document about social distancing measures.



> Public health authorities should also recognise that extra-scientific factors (e.g. feasibility of implementing scientific advice, time pressure, socio-political factors, institutional factors, economic interests, pressure from neighbouring countries) are inherent to the decision-making process. These factors will also influence the implementation of any proposed response measures [1, 5]. Decisions should therefore always be evidence-informed, but they will very rarely be purely evidence-based.











						Considerations relating to social distancing measures in response to COVID-19 – second update
					

This document aims to support public health preparedness planning and response activities based upon social distancing measures aimed at minimising the spread of COVID-19. Available in 26 languages.




					www.ecdc.europa.eu
				




Plenty else worthy of discussion in that document, but I havent worked out which thread is best for that right now.


----------



## bendeus (Mar 13, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Here's some more Italian doctors  saying exactly the same thing
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What seems particularly frightening about the article is the anecdotal reporting of the number of young people with no comorbidities in ICU. Is this an anomaly compared to other countries or is it consistent, i.e. lots of young people have caught it and a predictable (but low) % of that total will present with severe respiratory difficulties and require intubation?


----------



## prunus (Mar 13, 2020)

bendeus said:


> What seems particularly frightening about the article is the anecdotal reporting of the number of young people with no comorbidities in ICU. Is this an anomaly compared to other countries or is it consistent, i.e. lots of young people have caught it and a predictable (but low) % of that total will present with severe respiratory difficulties and require intubation?



it is the latter. It’s a very low percentage, less than 0.1% I believe from the data I’ve been looking at (somewhat extrapolated I admit, and probably out of date), but complications will develop in some young otherwise healthy people.  Whether it’s pure chance or there is some systematic reason we won’t know for a long time I shouldn’t think.

disclaimer: the above is my own work/thinking and not a repeat of anything officially published by anyone.


----------



## Barking_Mad (Mar 13, 2020)

prunus said:


> it is the latter. It’s a very low percentage, less than 0.1% I believe from the data I’ve been looking at (somewhat extrapolated I admit, and probably out of date), but complications will develop in some young otherwise healthy people.  Whether it’s pure chance or there is some systematic reason we won’t know for a long time I shouldn’t think.
> 
> disclaimer: the above is my own work/thinking and not a repeat of anything officially published by anyone.



Agreed. Statistically some younger people will also die, so whilst it's very sad it's worth repeating that the numbers are likely to be very small in comparison, and not worth getting overly concerned about.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 13, 2020)

bendeus said:


> What seems particularly frightening about the article is the anecdotal reporting of the number of young people with no comorbidities in ICU. Is this an anomaly compared to other countries or is it consistent, i.e. lots of young people have caught it and a predictable (but low) % of that total will present with severe respiratory difficulties and require intubation?



I think it's consistent, in Wuhan there was families 30 or 40 year old couples plus a set of in laws dying.

Twitter has a churchyard in Bergamo being used as a pile up dead body bags.

BFM Paris reports that 56 healthcare workers in Paris have tested positive.

Already signs of the NHS unable to cope









						Covid-19 patient not kept in isolation: Whistleblower exposes hospital failings
					

A HOSPITAL patient who has coronavirus was moved onto a ward of critically ill patients before being tested, the Gazette can reveal.




					www.basingstokegazette.co.uk
				




_They said: “There were four other helpless people stuck in the same bay. Moving infected patients around is a death sentence.
“The other people on the ward didn’t know what was going on. They have the right to know that they were being kept on a ward with someone who tested positive for coronavirus but the information was being withheld from them by the Trust.”

“It is ridiculous that there are people in hazmat suits outside the front of the hospital testing people for coronavirus while nurses actually treating infected people with the disease aren’t being given any protective clothing at all.
“There is no continuity in the Trust. How can we deliver a gold standard service of care if we are not properly protected ourselves?”
They added: “We have asked and pleaded for protective clothes and we were told, ‘no, it will scare the visitors and patients’.”_

More generally healthcare workers as vectors is almost certain as in Italy and in France:

_The healthcare worker criticised Public Health England for changing its guidelines on medics who come into contact with coronavirus patients.
Yesterday, the authority altered its rules to allow members of staff who have been exposed to patients with Covid-19 to be able to return to work as long as they don’t show symptoms.
“It is totally counter-productive and will only aid in spreading the disease,” the worker said. “This is why numbers are increasing dramatically.” _


----------



## sihhi (Mar 13, 2020)

prunus said:


> it is the latter. It’s a very low percentage, less than 0.1% I believe from the data I’ve been looking at (somewhat extrapolated I admit, and probably out of date), but complications will develop in some young otherwise healthy people.  Whether it’s pure chance or there is some systematic reason we won’t know for a long time I shouldn’t think.
> 
> disclaimer: the above is my own work/thinking and not a repeat of anything officially published by anyone.



Their fatality rate is 0.4% according to the study of cases from China, so ICU rate must be higher!


----------



## QueenOfGoths (Mar 13, 2020)

Czech Republic are closing their borders


----------



## two sheds (Mar 13, 2020)

sihhi said:


> _“It is ridiculous that there are people in hazmat suits outside the front of the hospital testing people for coronavirus while nurses actually treating infected people with the disease aren’t being given any protective clothing at all._
> ...



Jesus - what happened to Duty of Care? You'd imagine there'll be a few court cases against Trusts from nurses when this is over


----------



## prunus (Mar 13, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Their fatality rate is 0.4% according to the study of cases from China, so ICU rate must be higher!



That figure was published for 40-50 year olds by one study I believe; I should have been clearer I was referring to under 40s as young, where death rate tapers down from 0.2%

Also we were talking about young people without comorbidities - my assumption was that the majority of the fatalities in the younger groups will be people with comorbidities - high blood pressure, diabetes, immunosuppressed and so on.

I also tried to make adjustment for the higher frequency of supposed asymptomatic (or effectively asymptomatic) cases in young people, which I admit is a bit finger in the wind...

I did caveat it though!  

I suspect that our government must be doing similar analyses, hopefully with access to better data that I do!  Otherwise if they’re expecting 0.2% mortality in 20 to 40 years olds (there are about 20m of them) even at 40% best case morbidity (which I think we all know is unlikely) we’re talking 16,000 deaths of basically people’s kids, young parents of young children; the hearts of families will be torn out, the country will be heartbroken, not even counting all the greater numbers of older deaths.  It’d be 4x all the military and civilian deaths  of any age in all the wars since WW2, just in this age group.


----------



## bendeus (Mar 13, 2020)

prunus said:


> That figure was published for 40-50 year olds by one study I believe; I should have been clearer I was referring to under 40s as young, where death rate tapers down from 0.2%
> 
> Also we were talking about young people without comorbidities - my assumption was that the majority of the fatalities in the younger groups will be people with comorbidities - high blood pressure, diabetes, immunosuppressed and so on.
> 
> ...


It kind of feels that even best case scenario at the conservative end of the scale is telling us that few of us will be untouched by this, whether it be ourselves, friends or family: we're all likely to either be or to know someone who doesn't make it.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 13, 2020)

The Johns Hopkins tracker appears to be a bit broken today. Italy, Iran and Germany missing. Maybe others too


----------



## sihhi (Mar 13, 2020)

prunus said:


> That figure was published for 40-50 year olds by one study I believe; I should have been clearer I was referring to under 40s as young, where death rate tapers down from 0.2%
> 
> Also we were talking about young people without comorbidities - my assumption was that the majority of the fatalities in the younger groups will be people with comorbidities - high blood pressure, diabetes, immunosuppressed and so on.
> 
> ...



It's interesting that this data is just not available, I suspect they are playing with equations.
Hearts of families, even whole families, were torn out in Hubei province.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 13, 2020)

QueenOfGoths said:


> Czech Republic are closing their borders



A positive contribution to reducing cross-infection from unnecessary passenger transport.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 13, 2020)




----------



## prunus (Mar 13, 2020)

sihhi said:


> It's interesting that this data is just not available, I suspect they are playing with equations.
> Hearts of families, even whole families, were torn out in Hubei province.



Yes, it must be out there somewhere, I’d love to get my hands on individual case data, so I could do a proper multivariate analysis of comorbidities etc as I’ve not seen one done yet, which surprises me.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 13, 2020)

Ukraine has banned entry to all non-citizens.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 13, 2020)

Bolsonaro infected - One spread I don't mind seeing 









						UK may be included in US travel ban as WHO calls Europe 'centre of pandemic' – as it happened
					

Mount Everest calls off climbing season; Canadian prime minister self-isolates; London Underground driver tests positive. This blog is now closed




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Grace Johnson (Mar 13, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


>




This doesn't necessarily mean they are infectious though. It is part of the natural process of the immune system producing anti bodies. The same is true of more cold and flu viruses. I'm not saying it is that but it could well be. There may also some good news in there if that is the case because a longer time with the virus present after symptoms is linked with increased antibody response and therefore longer lasting and stronger resistance to the virus after infection.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 13, 2020)

Grace Johnson said:


> This doesn't necessarily mean they are infectious though. It is part of the natural process of the immune system producing anti bodies. The same is true of more cold and flu viruses. I'm not saying it is that but it could well be. There may also some good news in there if that is the case because a longer time with the virus present after symptoms is linked with increased antibody response and therefore longer lasting and stronger resistance to the virus after infection.



There was one study in Germany which had maximum infectious period at 5 days before and after symptoms appear.


----------



## miss direct (Mar 13, 2020)

I really think I might get stuck here in Turkey: 
Turkey: transport ministry cancels all flights to nine countries (Germany, France, Spain, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, and The Netherlands) starting  8 AM tomorrow, ending April 17th.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 13, 2020)

miss direct said:


> I really think I might get stuck here in Turkey:
> Turkey: transport ministry cancels all flights to nine countries (Germany, France, Spain, Norway, Denmark, Belgium, Austria, Sweden, and The Netherlands) starting  8 AM tomorrow, ending April 17th.


Can we crowdfund a taxi for you?


----------



## bendeus (Mar 13, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Bolsonaro infected - One spread I don't mind seeing
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Graun referencing a very recent meeting between him and Trump. Would it be too much to hope that it takes both of the bastards out?


----------



## Argonia (Mar 13, 2020)

Bolsonaro has tested negative, alas.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 13, 2020)

> The head of the World Health Organization says that Europe is now the "epicentre" of the Covid-19 pandemic.


----------



## Fruitloop (Mar 13, 2020)

bendeus said:


> What seems particularly frightening about the article is the anecdotal reporting of the number of young people with no comorbidities in ICU. Is this an anomaly compared to other countries or is it consistent, i.e. lots of young people have caught it and a predictable (but low) % of that total will present with severe respiratory difficulties and require intubation?



That is some pretty terrifying reading. Holy shit.


----------



## Grace Johnson (Mar 13, 2020)

sihhi said:


> There was one study in Germany which had maximum infectious period at 5 days before and after symptoms appear.



Yeah I've seen that. Not seen any evidence that it's as long as 37 days like that article says either. Was just saying that because the virus is present doesn't necessarily mean someone is infectious. It wasn't clear in the article which is not good writing from them.


----------



## Tankus (Mar 13, 2020)

So the Welsh / Scottish rugby match expected tomorrow at the millennium stadium Cardiff ( EST 78,000) now gets cancelled 24 hours before kickoff  , after large numbers of Scots have already made the journey and are wandering around in queenstreet  in their kilts  !!!! ...needs a facepalm gif

I hope the touts are fully stocked up


----------



## weltweit (Mar 13, 2020)

I don't know who the MP for Cheltenham is but the festival (horse racing) has been going on all week, with many tens of thousands in attendance.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 13, 2020)

Just 8 deaths in the last 24 hours in China and just 22 new cases reported. 

Is anyone keeping up to date with what is happening there? 
Have they started to reduce their restrictions?


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 13, 2020)

Trump says the US is going to be able to test five million people by the end of next month but doubts "we'll need anywhere near this".


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Just 8 deaths in the last 24 hours in China and just 22 new cases reported.
> 
> Is anyone keeping up to date with what is happening there?
> Have they started to reduce their restrictions?



Well...









						'The new normal': China's excessive coronavirus public monitoring could be here to stay
					

Experts say the coronavirus has given the Chinese government a pretext for accelerating the mass surveillance




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 13, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Well...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Makes grim reading. Thanks for posting it.


----------



## MrSki (Mar 13, 2020)

We could do with a few politicians like this woman Katie Porter & she is a republican too! (ETA she is a Democrat. Thanks Plumdaff )  Finally gets free testing for US citizens.


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 13, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Well...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Ultimate shock doctrine.

We’re not going to leave this situation well I suspect.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Just 8 deaths in the last 24 hours in China and just 22 new cases reported.
> 
> Is anyone keeping up to date with what is happening there?
> Have they started to reduce their restrictions?



Yes but not Hubei.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 13, 2020)

Europe is taking the brunt of it now.

_








						Europe is now epicentre of coronavirus pandemic – WHO chief — Sky News
					

The head of the World Health Organisation says Europe has now become the epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic.




					apple.news
				



_


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 13, 2020)

Trump declare national emergency.









						Trump declares national emergency over coronavirus
					

The order allows the federal government to tap up to $50bn (£40bn) in emergency relief funds.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Plumdaff (Mar 13, 2020)

MrSki said:


> We could do with a few politicians like this woman Katie Porter & she is a republican too!  Finally gets free testing for US citizens.




Katie Porter is a Democrat.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 13, 2020)

Our workmate's brother is a a junior doctor, he's been telling her that surgical assistants at a London hospital are being drafted as ICU nurses, surgeries cancelled, operating theaters are repurposed as ICU beds. Apparently, they had an in depth mask fit test with gas inhalation testing etc and then at the end was told that it wouldn't matter anyway because they're about to run out of masks.

This afternoon UCLH was doing something interesting on their parking lot, setting up pods/tents for patients.

Man, I feel sorry for the NHS staff.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 13, 2020)

It's happening


----------



## little_legs (Mar 13, 2020)




----------



## little_legs (Mar 13, 2020)

God damn...


----------



## weltweit (Mar 13, 2020)

About time for some UK restrictions on this flipping virus.


----------



## MrSki (Mar 13, 2020)

Plumdaff said:


> Katie Porter is a Democrat.


Thanks. I thought it was a bit odd. Certainly good at getting her point across.


----------



## elbows (Mar 13, 2020)

> President Donald Trump says that he "may add" the UK to the list of European countries affected by the US travel ban. He said his government is looking at the rise in cases in Britain in the past 24 hours, which he described as "precipitous".
> 
> The total number of cases in the UK is now 798, up by more than 200.



From the BBC live updates page earlier.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 13, 2020)

Self isolate for 14 days... self isolate for 7 days... test people who might have it... nah, fuck that... oh, just let it run... detain them!... sing happy birthday... fucking hell, Johnson's response makes Labour's Brexit policy look like a model of clarity and consistency.


----------



## Jeremiah18.17 (Mar 13, 2020)

So here is how the UK strategy comes unstuck. By advising people with symptoms to self isolate and not tracking or testing contacts of people who have tested positive or developed more severe symptoms, non symptomatic people/ people with minor “self deniable” symptoms will not self isolate and will _spread the virus_. Additionally, people with symptoms may self isolate for seven days and then come out into circulation, whilst still infectious or symptomatic, because the Govt only advised 7 days. Because people now understand that testing is only available to those showing more serious symptoms, it means people with minor symptoms can convince _themselves_ that they are not infected, in order to go to work, or make an important appt or any number of things they see as more important....


----------



## two sheds (Mar 14, 2020)

As said above, the essential part of this is monitoring - we need to be testing people and tracing contacts to build an accurate model of what's going on. 

Seems to me that they're just adopting the least-cost approach, a medical laissez faire that values old and infirm peoples' lives at £0.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

As the WHO director general said on Friday:



> Second, detect, protect and treat.
> 
> You can’t fight a virus if you don’t know where it is. Find, isolate, test and treat every case, to break the chains of transmission.
> 
> Every case we find and treat limits the expansion of the disease.





> Third, reduce transmission.
> 
> Do not just let this fire burn.
> 
> ...











						WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 13 March 2020
					






					www.who.int


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 14, 2020)

Scientists save coronavirus patient they feared would die with experimental drug — The Mirror
					

A woman in the US who was critically ill with coronavirus is now 'doing well' after being given the drug remdesivir, sparking hopes of a cure




					apple.news
				






> Meanwhile, in the UK, a lab in Whitechapel in London is offering volunteers £3,500 to be infected with a form of coronavirus in the race to find a vaccine.



Any takers?


----------



## platinumsage (Mar 14, 2020)

It might be worth noting the weekly UK flu reports, which give respiratory illness figures for GPs, hospital admissions and also excess death figures. The week to 5th of March saw low levels of seasonal flu: National flu report summary: 5 March 2020 (week 10)


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 14, 2020)

Olympics will go ahead, says Japan PM
					

Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says the Tokyo Olympic Games will go ahead as planned in July, despite coronavirus concerns.




					www.bbc.co.uk
				




This seems a particularly virulent case of blind optimism by the Japanese. Even if they can hold it, nobody's going to show up.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 14, 2020)

Spain going into lock down from Monday 








						PM due to make statement after seven-hour debate on state of alert measures
					

Draft decree includes banning all journeys in Spain apart from travel to work or to buy food. The delay on Saturday was reportedly due to differences between the Socialists and their coalition partners, Unidas Podemos




					english.elpais.com


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 14, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Revised these figures seeing as we have a few more days worth of data:
> 
> 
> *Date**Original (40% then 20% from 13th)**Revised (30% then 20% from 13th)*Friday, 6 March 2020163163Saturday, 7 March 2020228212Sunday, 8 March 2020319275Monday, 9 March 2020447358Tuesday, 10 March 2020626466Wednesday, 11 March 2020877605Thursday, 12 March 20201227787Friday, 13 March 20201473944Saturday, 14 March 202017671133Sunday, 15 March 202021211360Monday, 16 March 202025451631Tuesday, 17 March 202030541958Wednesday, 18 March 202036652349Thursday, 19 March 202043982819Friday, 20 March 202052773383Saturday, 21 March 202063334060Sunday, 22 March 202075994871Monday, 23 March 202091195846Tuesday, 24 March 2020109437015Wednesday, 25 March 2020131318418Thursday, 26 March 20201575810101
> ...


The revised figure is out by only 7 compared to today's reported numbers.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Any takers?



The coronaviruses in question are ones that have been out there in the human population for a very long time, causing seasonal colds.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 14, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> Olympics will go ahead, says Japan PM
> 
> 
> Japan Prime Minister Shinzo Abe says the Tokyo Olympic Games will go ahead as planned in July, despite coronavirus concerns.
> ...



The Japanese obsession with not backing down, so as to avoid “loss of face”   

Hiroshima gets bombed: “No, let’s not surrender, let’s wait and see what happens next”
Fukushima blows up: “We can fix this, it’s no problem”
Covid-19 pandemic: “The most important thing is we carry on with the Olympics!”

Japanese Logic.


----------



## Brainaddict (Mar 14, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> The Japanese obsession with not backing down, so as to avoid “loss of face”
> 
> Hiroshima gets bombed: “No, let’s not surrender, let’s wait and see what happens next”
> Fukushima blows up: “We can fix this, it’s no problem”
> ...


I do not think you have enough data points to make any generalisations.


----------



## T & P (Mar 14, 2020)

These images of my bustling home city as a ghost town are mind blowing, for me at least....









						Fotos: Madrid se vacía por el coronavirus, en imágenes
					

La ciudad amanece con las calles desiertas y los comercios cerrados, salvo los de alimentación y primera necesidad




					elpais.com


----------



## magneze (Mar 14, 2020)

US travel ban extended to UK & Ireland.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 14, 2020)

been looking at live cams in Venice - utterly deserted








						【LIVE】 Webcam Venice - Piazza San Marco | SkylineWebcams
					

Visit St. Mark’s Square in Venice live now! Watch our Venice Webcams and explore Piazza San Marco! Find out destinations in Italy with over 2000 HD live cams.




					www.skylinewebcams.com


----------



## T & P (Mar 14, 2020)

On further reading about the situation in Spain, word is the government is about to implement a nationwide lockdown. No one allowed to leave the house other than to go to work (for those who cannot work from home and must carry on working), to care for vulnerable relatives, or to buy food and medicines. Wow.


----------



## prunus (Mar 14, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> The Japanese obsession with not backing down, so as to avoid “loss of face”
> 
> Hiroshima gets bombed: “No, let’s not surrender, let’s wait and see what happens next”
> Fukushima blows up: “We can fix this, it’s no problem”
> ...



I’m not sure we in Britain are in any position to be casting aspersions on anyone else’s gung-ho attitude to the approaching storm (I don’t know that you are in Britain of course).


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> _*No, the message and mood music is different, they know this isnt the same or similar.*_
> 
> It does certainly seem to be the case that they want to start with the traditional 'business as usual' approach, but expect to have to switch to something very different.
> 
> The impression has certainly been put out there today that they'd like to have the business as usual phase last this whole month. I'm not sure if that is likely or not, I havent done the maths. I'd be tempted to say no, maybe 3 weeks if they are lucky, maybe much less than that, maybe I am miles off.



The mood music is different but the protective equipment is the same:







There were one and a half months since the WHO said it was a global emergency, but no PPE.
Surgical masks are ineffective - this is how the front line go down.
Given the lack of PPE ruthless containment measures are needed urgently, instead rugby league today simply carries on after Cheltenham.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

I do rather expect a massive scandal about the lack of PPE at some point. The signs are there, its just a question of the issue rising to the top in the press etc.

They certainly havent relaxed the PPE requirements because of any actual belief that SARS-CoV-2 is not dangerous, its because the status of supplies is probably appalling before we have even started.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 14, 2020)

T & P said:


> On further reading about the situation in Spain, word is the government is about to implement a nationwide lockdown. No one allowed to leave the house other than to go to work (for those who cannot work from home and must carry on working), to care for vulnerable relatives, or to buy food and medicines. Wow.



Well, they are at over 6,000 confirmed cases & 191 deaths now.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

> *All travel suspended to the UK and Ireland effective Monday, Vice President*
> Vice President Mike Pence has announced all travel to the UK and Ireland will be suspended from midnight Monday EST.



                            25m ago    16:46


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> I do rather expect a massive scandal about the lack of PPE at some point. The signs are there, its just a question of the issue rising to the top in the press etc.
> 
> They certainly havent relaxed the PPE requirements because of any actual belief that SARS-CoV-2 is not dangerous, its because the status of supplies is probably appalling before we have even started.



Yes the doctor writing that is being ironic.

An example of border closing amongst allies Azerbaijan and Turkey have cut all flights and only cargo will transported in future.

Russia has closed borders to Finland, Norway & Poland except for goods.

A summary of the urgent need for stricter measures here:


----------



## Dan U (Mar 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> 25m ago    16:46



That's the trans Atlantic airlines needing state aid then. Final nail that additional ban.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Seems to me that they're just adopting the least-cost approach, a medical laissez faire that values old and infirm peoples' lives at £0.



The least cost approach will eventually bring them to their knees. Britain will be a pariah - it will take much longer than other nations to control the virus here, the deaths will be far higher. Britain will be a no go zone by next year. 
For a start, Asian students will not study in British universities and nor will tourists particularly want to visit Britain. 
Deaths by coronavirus will be how the world is judged according to common sense in year's time.


----------



## Supine (Mar 14, 2020)

sihhi said:


> The least cost approach will eventually bring them to their knees. Britain will be a pariah - it will take much longer than other nations to control the virus here, the deaths will be far higher. Britain will be a no go zone by next year.
> For a start, Asian students will not study in British universities and nor will tourists particularly want to visit Britain.
> Deaths by coronavirus will be how the world is judged according to common sense in year's time.



Or maybe you are completely and utterly wrong. Time will tell.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

sihhi said:


> A summary of the urgent need for stricter measures here:



Whether 'flattening the curve' is a deadly delusion depends on what you are trying to do with it, what policies you are trying to justify by waving it around, etc.

Certainly various developed nations seem to have been caught off guard by what WHO ended up calling on countries to do once the WHO had a look at the Chinese response and the results. Its not what their existing pandemic plans would have expected, and most Covid-19 response plans were based off of older plans.

I've said it a lot before in recent days, but European Centre For Disease Control documents do feature such graphs and concepts. Its the detail of what to do in response and what capacity they think different countries intensive care facilities have that gets fed into the equation that matters as much as the concept. And in that respect the EU risk assessment docs dont seem completely out of touch. I will fish some bits out shortly as I finally have enough energy for this task.


----------



## Jeremiah18.17 (Mar 14, 2020)

Oh my goodness.  Here it is - the argument for the “herd immunity” strategy, with various arrogant god-playing shits  thinking it is a good idea. Basically a massive gamble with our lives and our country to gain “competitive advantage” that relies on an epic cross-silo speculative melange of epidemiology, virology and behavioural science. The reasoning behind a proposed law “forcing schools to stay open” becomes clear - our kids are about to be used as a “tap” to attempt to turn up and down the level of infections to achieve “ herd immunity” in the UK and therefore gain competitive advantage.  Our vulnerable are “collateral damage”.
Strangelove/Mengele style God playing. It has the fingerprints of Cummings, Johnson and the National capitalist elite all over it.
If it goes wrong, they will be primed to blame those who questioned their strategy, saying we undermined their effectiveness ( apologists are already doing this!)
May our deity of choice have mercy on us. If they are wrong, hell, even if it “works”  bloody revolutions have started with less provocation.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

Supine said:


> Or maybe you are completely and utterly wrong. Time will tell.



I was responding to the government's false economy of limited tests only for those already in hospital.

The ball is the government's court. It's not inevitable it depends on their response. 

Right now planeloads of Chinese students have started returning to China to escape their dorms and unis.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

Some of the EU stuff, I have to cherry pick as there is too much that is somewhat relevant to this angle, and I still end up quoting too much, sorry.



			https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-sixth-update-Outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf
		




> The EU/EEA and the UK are quickly moving toward a scenario of sustained community transmission of COVID- 19. The situation is evolving very quickly and a rapid, proactive and comprehensive approach is essential in order to delay transmission, as containing transmission to local epidemics is no longer considered feasible. A rapid shift from a containment to a mitigation approach is required, as the rapid increase in cases, that is anticipated in the coming days to few weeks may not provide decision makers and hospitals enough time to realise, accept and adapt their response accordingly if not implemented ahead of time. Measures taken at this stage should ultimately aim at protecting the most vulnerable population groups from severe illness and fatal outcome by reducing transmission and reinforcing healthcare systems.





> Social distancing measures should be implemented early in order to mitigate the impact of the epidemic and to delay the epidemic peak. This can interrupt human-to-human transmission chains, prevent further spread, reduce the intensity of the epidemic and slow down the increase in cases, while allowing healthcare systems to prepare and cope with an increased influx of patients.
> Such measures should include:
>   the immediate isolation of symptomatic persons suspected or confirmed to be infected with
> COVID-19;
> ...





> If resources or capacity are limited, rational approaches should be implemented to prioritise high-yield actions, which include: rational use of confirmatory testing, reducing contact tracing to focus only on high-yield contacts, rational use of PPE and hospitalisation and implementing rational criteria for de- isolation. Testing approaches should prioritise vulnerable populations, protection of social and healthcare institutions, including staff.





> The 14-day cumulative notification rate of COVID-19, a measure of the prevalence of active cases in the population, is
> 3.28 per 100 000 population in the EU/EEA as of 11 March, ranging from low rates of <0.1 to 16.3 per 100 000 in Italy and 19.8 per 100 000 in Iceland. The 14-days notification rate increased 10-fold over the last 10 days and, assuming no effect of mitigation measures, the EU/EEA and UK is predicted to reach 100 per 100 000 population (the Hubei scenario) by the end of March.





> Reports from some healthcare facilities in northern Italy indicate that intensive care capacity has been exceeded due to the high volume of patients requiring ventilation





> ECDC estimated the risk of saturation of intensive care unit (ICU) beds and non-ICU beds, as well as hospital isolation capacity (airborne infection isolation rooms and single-bed rooms), through a simulation approach using hospital data of the 2016-2017 ECDC point-prevalence survey of healthcare-associated infections in acute care hospitals [52]. Hospital capacity was evaluated as a function of increasing prevalence of hospitalised COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population, for three levels of hospitalised COVID-19 patients requiring ICU care (5%, 18% and 30% severity scenarios), and using bed occupancy rates measured outside the winter season. The 14-days cumulative notification per 100 000 population was used as a proxy of the prevalence of active COVID-19 cases.





> Based on these estimates four EU/EEA countries [0 - 10, depending on severity] would have a high risk of seeing their ICU capability saturated at a prevalence of 10 hospitalised COVID-19 cases per 100 000 population (approximately twice the Mainland China prevalence scenario at the peak of the epidemic). At a prevalence of 18 hospitalised cases per 100 000 (the Lombardy scenario as of 5 March) 12 countries [0 – 21, depending on severity] have a high risk of ICU capability becoming saturated. The ICU capacity of all [7 - 28] countries would be exceeded at a prevalence of 100 hospitalised per 100 000 (the Hubei province scenario at the peak of the epidemic) (Annex 2). Nonetheless, despite ICU capacity saturation in most countries, more than half of the countries (17) would still have a residual non-ICU bed capacity in the Hubei scenario.





> According to predictions of the 14-day cumulative notification rate, the majority of EU/EEA countries would reach the Hubei scenario by end of March and all countries by mid-April 2020. These predictions need to be interpreted with caution because of prediction intervals inherent to modelling, and because of the underlying assumptions of: 1) a stable diagnostic testing policy and capacity and 2) an absence of effective mitigation measures.





> The control measures have, up to now, only been able to slow the further spread, but not to stop it. If numerous local sub-national clusters of community transmission arise simultaneously, they could merge into a situation of widespread national community transmission. The likelihood of this occurring depends on the speed of detection of local transmission and whether effective response measures are applied early enough and at-scale. Early evidence from several settings globally indicates that rigorous public health measures, particularly related to isolation and social distancing, implemented immediately after identifying cases can reduce but does not exclude the probability of further spread. Evidence to-date from China, and emerging evidence from Korea, indicates that early decisive actions may reduce community transmission.





> As the number of reported COVID-19 cases in the EU/EEA and the UK has increased in the last 10 days, very quickly in several EU/EEA countries, the probability of increased clusters in local areas and increased widespread community transmission is considered high. Analyses carried out by ECDC indicate that if the pandemic progresses on its current course without strong countermeasures or surge capacity enacted, that most EU/EEA countries will far exceed the available ICU capacity they currently have available by the end of March.



Oh I am not even half way through it and have already quoted all that. So I will stop for this post, but will likely continue in a little while. But hopefully a number of things are noted, including similarities and differences to the publicly stated UK approach, the same but for the UKs actual approach, some timing similarities and differences, acknowledgement of the intensive care and hospital capacity issues, acknowledgement of some things the WHO have said about the effectiveness of Chinas response.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> Whether 'flattening the curve' is a deadly delusion depends on what you are trying to do with it, what policies you are trying to justify by waving it around, etc.
> 
> Certainly various developed nations seem to have been caught off guard by what WHO ended up calling on countries to do once the WHO had a look at the Chinese response and the results. Its not what their existing pandemic plans would have expected, and most Covid-19 response plans were based off of older plans.



One key point is that r0 in an urban economy for this virus is much higher than assumed initially by non-Chinese analysts. The virus was underestimated so social distancing was assumed to be something that would come by April or May, the belief that contact tracing by professionals would be enough to retard the spread was also wrong.(In China most of the contact tracing and quarantine orders were put by volunteers.)


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

Carrying on with quoting that document, as I now get to the bit most relevant to the whole 'flattening the curve' business:



> The situation is evolving quickly, and the currently notified cases reflect a situation in terms of transmission pressures about a week ago. Therefore, a proactive and aggressive approach is needed to delay transmission, as containing transmission in a specific area or country in the EU/EEA is no longer considered feasible (Figure 1). A rapid shift from a containment to a mitigation approach is required as the rapid increase in cases anticipated in the coming days to few weeks may not provide decision makers and hospitals enough time to realise, accept and adapt their response accordingly if not implemented ahead of time.





> All EU/EEA countries should immediately and proactively initiate appropriate, proportional and evidence-based response options to prevent a situation of evolution to scenario 4, where the intensive care capacity is saturated and health systems are overwhelmed. The options provided below, therefore, focus on scenarios 2-4, which describe local and nationwide transmission scenarios.





> In the current phase of the pandemic in the EU/EEA, priority response measures should focus on high-risk groups, healthcare systems and healthcare workers in order to ensure rapid detection and diagnosis of cases and protect healthcare staff, patients and other contacts from exposure. Measures to ensure appropriate functioning of the healthcare system (including laboratories) with increasing numbers of cases should be implemented. Social distancing measures and risk communication remain essential pillars to effective mitigation approaches, while rational testing, contact tracing and surveillance approaches can be implemented to match resource availability and capacity.



And now we really start to get into stuff that might start to look rather familiar to those who have heard the UK's publicly stated response to the pandemic:



> The options proposed for preparedness and response aim to limit the impact of the pandemic on healthcare systems and vulnerable population groups by delaying the epidemic peak and decreasing the magnitude of the peak.






> It is important that planned response strategies, including diagnostic testing, can be adapted according to case finding strategies and adjusted to a surge of cases by de-escalating procedures that might no longer be feasible and/or beneficial





> The need for individual and shared responsibility should be emphasised through a focus on frequent hand washing, always covering the mouth and nose with tissues or elbow when sneezing or coughing, and implementation of self-isolation when symptomatic. Messaging on self-isolation and voluntary quarantines should encourage consideration of a support system to provide essential services and supplies (e.g. food and medication). Vulnerable individuals including the elderly, those with underlying health conditions, disabled people, people with mental health problems, homeless people, and undocumented migrants will require extra support and perhaps specific communication channels and language. Authorities may want to consider coordinating with and supporting civil society and religious groups who already work with these populations. Please refer to the guidance on community engagement for more details.



And something that has very much not been part of the UKs publicly stated approach. Perhaps it is fair to suggest that this is the crux of the matter in terms of current complaints about UK government strategy:



> The evidence for the effectiveness of closing schools and workplaces, and cancelling mass gatherings is limited. However, one modelling study from China estimated that if a range of non-pharmaceutical interventions, including social distancing, had been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier in the country, the number of COVID-19 cases could have been reduced by 66%, 86%, and 95%, respectively, together with significantly reducing the number of affected areas [72].


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

Here's the key line: _"Evidence to-date from China, and emerging evidence from Korea, indicates that early decisive actions may reduce community transmission."_

This is a good timeline summary of Italy



			https://www.luca-dellanna.com/how-bad/


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 14, 2020)

Look like France is tightening things up. Lock down soon? 









						Coronavirus: Spain and France announce sweeping restrictions
					

Spain sharply restricts citizens' movements while France has closed non-essential public places.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				



French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has ordered the closure of all non-essential public locations from midnight (23:00 GMT Saturday) in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

The measure applies to restaurants, cafes, cinemas and discos, as well as non-essential businesses.

Mr Philippe also called on French people to reduce their travel, especially between towns.

France reported a sharp rise in cases on Saturday, from 3,661 to 4,499.


----------



## Supine (Mar 14, 2020)

The modelling used by our experts hasn't been shown in detail which I think has caused a lot of problems. As these threads have shown people don’t understand how the government policy has been formulated and therefore misunderstand the reasoning.

A friend of a friend just posted the attached which is a summary of the SPI-M modelling technique used by the Pandemic Influenza Group. It goes some way to showing the thought processes used to address this pandemic.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/756738/SPI-M_modelling_summary_final.pdf


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

That document does help with certain detail and gives a fair sense of the previous pandemic influenza response consensus, which was based on various assumptions about influenza, and assumptions about what steps would be considered practical and tolerable.

When read alongside the ECDC documents, we can see the contrast. ECDC stuff, which has been updated numerous times already, provide a lot of signs about how thinking has evolved in response to certain characteristics of the new coronavirus, the lack of vaccine and antivirals, the intensive care burden, and the strong response of certain countries which was quite dissimilar to the sort of responses it was assumed would be taken in an influenza pandemic.

The UK does not operate in a vacuum. People can tell the difference between clumsily delivered narratives involving herd immunity, and the very strong responses being seen elsewhere. We are not going to accept that the UK has some special reason to indulge in limited and late options just because politicians, technocrats and the managerial classes have a resistance to 'thinking the unthinkable'.

The quote from the EU I already gave several times is a good fit, the first sentence is a good fit for the stated UK attitude and planning assumptions (because the UK was not unique, and their approaches are still harmonised with the EU to a great extent) but it points out the lessons from other places. Even if governments havent learnt those lessons, their people have become aware of them! Nowhere in the EU document is the word herd used, and immunity is only mentioned briefly.



> The evidence for the effectiveness of closing schools and workplaces, and cancelling mass gatherings is limited. However, one modelling study from China estimated that if a range of non-pharmaceutical interventions, including social distancing, had been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier in the country, the number of COVID-19 cases could have been reduced by 66%, 86%, and 95%, respectively, together with significantly reducing the number of affected areas.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 14, 2020)

So Peston appears to be getting all the scoops


----------



## little_legs (Mar 14, 2020)

That's what Evening Standard will turn into in a few days' time


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

I'll split the UK stuff into three things in order to be extra clear about my own position right now:

The communications
The timing
The actual measures
Who actually triggers those measures

Weirdness and other problems with the communications made people nervous about the timing and the actual measures.

It is not possible for me to judge the timing and the measures themselves properly yet. Mostly because of the various issues that have arisen out of their communication strategy. If I look at the public numbers they release, I can begin to imagine what stage they really think they are at. If I look at what the EU documents from a few days ago say about things like preparing hospitals, the UK seems in alignment with that. If I factor in the effects of non-governmental action, such sports leagues shutting down (due to their own issues such as people involved in the sport testing positive or travel issues), other countries restricting travel and flights being cancelled, then the timing here so far hasnt actually ended up too far adrift yet either.

School closure timing is the obvious exception to this. It, and the botched narrative about herd immunity, need to be sorted out quickly, both in terms of public communication and the actual timing of action to be taken. Obviously I also have some specific other concerns with timing (I keep going on about 4 weeks being crap), but based on recent evidence I am more inclined to think this is down to more botched communications. If they did genuinely make crucial timing errors, they've now got the chance to fix that pronto.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

Supine said:


> The modelling used by our experts hasn't been shown in detail which I think has caused a lot of problems. As these threads have shown people don’t understand how the government policy has been formulated and therefore misunderstand the reasoning.
> 
> A friend of a friend just posted the attached which is a summary of the SPI-M modelling technique used by the Pandemic Influenza Group. It goes some way to showing the thought processes used to address this pandemic.
> 
> https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/756738/SPI-M_modelling_summary_final.pdf



I've ploughed through about half of that but it's different viral enemies.

This virus r0 is higher, lethality is certainly higher than any pandemic flu since 1918, there's no flu antivirals waiting to be built on and developed.


----------



## spitfire (Mar 14, 2020)

little_legs said:


> That's what Evening Standard will turn into in a few days' time




Jesus shitting christ.


----------



## Supine (Mar 14, 2020)

sihhi said:


> I've ploughed through about half of that but it's different viral enemies.
> 
> This virus r0 is higher, lethality is certainly higher than any pandemic flu since 1918, there's no flu antivirals waiting to be built on and developed.



It's not specific on the enemy but the research applies to any pandemics. The bit I found most interestung was near the end about why studying the first 100 cases is important to define the pandemic spread characteristics.  After that you don't need further testing of the whole population as you can work out what happens.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

little_legs said:


> So Peston appears to be getting all the scoops



Thanks for posting that. Even if not everything mentioned there is exactly what ends up happening, much of it seems consistent with the sort of measures to be expected in this pandemic. It may go some way towards undoing some of the comms damage of recent days, if they do it sooner rather than later. The school plans mentioned in it are still at odds with some of the latest wisdom, and NI have started signalling that they are looking at closures of 14-16 weeks. So the politics etc of this may rumble on for some time yet before everything is clearer. Or maybe things will move faster now, hard to say.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

Supine said:


> It's not specific on the enemy but the research applies to any pandemics. The bit I found most interestung was near the end about why studying the first 100 cases is important to define the pandemic spread characteristics.  After that you don't need further testing of the whole population as you can work out what happens.



Yes, they did the 'first few 100' (FF100) stuff in the swine flu pandemic too, thats when I first became aware of it. And like stuff I mentioned earlier, I was very unsurprised to see it in the EU guidelines, its not something the UK made up on its own.

They did it this time too I'm sure, thats one of the reasons they hospitalised all the early cases they found, even if their illness remained mild.

edit - thought I may as well quote that bit from the EU doc.



> Available study protocols to conduct ‘First few hundred’, household transmission or other studies are available from WHO and should be applied. Results should be made available as soon as possible.



And another favourite subject of mine:



> Engagement and efforts should also include serological studies to analyse the impact on a population level and compare with potential pre-existing immunity in the population. Such studies require sensitive and reliable serological tests, which are currently under development requiring validation. Study protocols are currently being developed and should be conducted in a harmonised way across the EU/EEA.



From the 'Research needs' section of https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/de...f-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf


----------



## agricola (Mar 14, 2020)

little_legs said:


> So Peston appears to be getting all the scoops




As bad as his conduct was during the election, how he has behaved since this crisis kicked off is even by British journalist standards, disgusting.   Not a mention of the fact the plan has clearly been torn up in two days.  A claim that "army hospitals" will be used, when they don't exist.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

Four infectious disease epidemiologists have an article here called The direction of the UK Government strategy on the COVID19 pandemic must change immediately to prevent catastrophe








						ICU_beds.pdf
					

Shared with Dropbox




					www.dropbox.com
				




worth reading



elbows said:


> Yes, they did the 'first few 100' (FF100) stuff in the swine flu pandemic too, thats when I first became aware of it. And like stuff I mentioned earlier, I was very unsurprised to see it in the EU guidelines, its not something the UK made up on its own.
> 
> They did it this time too I'm sure, thats one of the reasons they hospitalised all the early cases they found, even if their illness remained mild.



What you can't necessarily get from the first 100 cases you catch is gauge how quickly it spreads and how likely superspread events are when quarantine containment is not effected.
You need the bigger picture which should have been available from China, Korea, Iran & Italy.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

agricola said:


> Not a mention of the fact the plan has clearly been torn up in two days.



As I have attempted to explain in all manner of posts in the last few days, I cannot actually prove that is the case. They might have just badly botched the comms or tried to be too clever for their own good with psychology. Some of these measures were planned already for sure, they just hadnt announced them yet and on top of that they made their own timing judgements look questionable this week by saying weird and alarming things. They might have torn up their timetable now, but even on that front I cannot truly claim to know the extent to which they have been forced to change, as opposed to the extent they absolutely messed up the communication of the likely timing.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

sihhi said:


> What you can't necessarily get from the first 100 cases you catch is gauge how quickly it spreads and how likely superspread events are when quarantine containment is not effected.
> You need the bigger picture which should have been available from China, Korea, Iran & Italy.



FF100 studies are for clinical purposes. Epidemiology is handled by other means, although some clinical info feeds into it (informs it).


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> Thanks for posting that. Even if not everything mentioned there is exactly what ends up happening, much of it seems consistent with the sort of measures to be expected in this pandemic. It may go some way towards undoing some of the comms damage of recent days, if they do it sooner rather than later. The school plans mentioned in it are still at odds with some of the latest wisdom, and NI have started signalling that they are looking at closures of 14-16 weeks. So the politics etc of this may rumble on for some time yet before everything is clearer. Or maybe things will move faster now, hard to say.



On school closures. My guess is it will start with a week or two then get extended

There is something strange about these tid bits: 

Is anyone under 70 is fair game for the herd immunity approach? 
Those with  underlying health conditions (not necessarily that serious, the first couple or so with underlying health conditions had been travelling abroad), about a quarter to a third of adults have high blood pressure for instance are included too?
How can careworkers have any confidence they will not infect the over 70 unless there are generalised quarantine/containment measures, reducing their interactions with anyone.
Careworkers to have separate quarters? (What happened to that hotel that was requisitioned near Heathrow, was it ever used?)


----------



## agricola (Mar 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> As I have attempted to explain in all manner of posts in the last few days, I cannot actually prove that is the case. They might have just badly botched the comms or tried to be too clever for their own good with psychology. Some of these measures were planned already for sure, they just hadnt announced them yet and they made their own timing judgements look questionable this week. They might have torn up their timetable now, but even on that front I cannot truly claim to know the extent to which they have been forced to change.



Not having a go, but if you look at this list:

the forced requisitioning of hotels and other buildings as temporary hospitals;
the requisitioning of private hospitals as emergency hospitals;
temporary closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings;
emergency manufacture by several companies of respirators that would be necessary to keep alive those who become acutely ill;
the closure of schools for perhaps a few weeks, but with skeleton staff kept on to provide childcare for key workers in the NHS and police.
... and think they are acting in concert with a plan then I honestly don't know what to say.  There is zero excuse for the private hospitals being requisitioned and ordering more respirators things not having been done weeks ago, and it should absolutely have been announced on Thursday if it was.  Hotels / other buildings as temporary hospitals sounds very much like it is refloating of this absolute idiocy from a few years back, which as pointed out at the time seems to boil down to them understanding that beds are in hospitals and hotels, therefore a hotel can be used as a hospital. Closing schools for everyone except kids of cops / NHS staff is a daft idea as well - you'd have thousands of schools open with ten kids in each.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> FF100 studies are for clinical purposes. Epidemiology is handled by other means, although some clinical info feeds into it (informs it).



Yes I think the plan is very focused on the age spread of morbidity clinical outcomes, but not on the speed of new cases coming when the levee starts to break.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 14, 2020)

agricola said:


> As bad as his conduct was during the election, how he has behaved since this crisis kicked off is even by British journalist standards, disgusting.   Not a mention of the fact the plan has clearly been torn up in two days.  A claim that "army hospitals" will be used, when they don't exist.



LOL

by the British journalist standards


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

sihhi said:


> There is something strange about these tid bits:
> 
> Is anyone under 70 is fair game for the herd immunity approach?



Getting more and more people to work from home, shutting pubs, and various other things, including the use of cordon sanitaire if particular areas have their own local epidemics, will be some of the things designed to slow the spread amongst the under 70's.



> Those with  underlying health conditions (not necessarily that serious, the first couple or so with underlying health conditions had been travelling abroad), about a quarter to a third of adults have high blood pressure for instance are included too?



There are a number of issues that require urgent investigation on this front. Such as whether it is the conditions that icrease the risks, or some of the drugs used to treat such conditions.



> How can careworkers have any confidence they will not infect the over 70 unless there are generalised quarantine/containment measures, reducing their interactions with anyone.
> Careworkers to have separate quarters? (What happened to that hotel that was requisitioned near Heathrow, was it ever used?)



There is lots of potential for institutional spread of the virus, and these sorts of incidents can add a lot to the overall burden and number of deaths. It is a difficult problem to solve, very difficult.

I dont think the hotel got much use for its original intended purpose, but last I heard of it it was being offered as an option for people returning from certain parts of the world once the UK government advice became for everyone coming from there to self-isolate. Intended for use by people who didnt have anywhere else to self-isolate. I read about this once, dont know how much it has actually happened.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

agricola said:


> Closing schools for everyone except kids of cops / NHS staff is a daft idea as well - you'd have thousands of schools open with ten kids in each.



I was going to mention this aswell. You'd need teachers (even if caretakers are absent) and these kids to be travelling to a site to meet and spread infection when everyone else would be having online classes.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

agricola said:


> Not having a go, but if you look at this list:
> 
> the forced requisitioning of hotels and other buildings as temporary hospitals;
> the requisitioning of private hospitals as emergency hospitals;
> ...



I didnt say it was a perfect plan and I have concerns about the timing and indeed the long-term healthcare capacity and planning for pandemics, lack of resilience with 'just in time' systems etc.

I think you may have missed the point of the hospital-related measures. Its emergency overflow capacity because the number of cases they have to be prepared to deal with is horrific. And they expect to need to shift lots of people elsewhere, including some of the people who are hospitalised for non-Covid19 reasons. Of course it will suck and there will be many terrible aspects, but thats the situation. Its the same sort of thing as all the relaxation of standards and staff skill levels and paperwork, none of it is great, it has consequences, its an emergency measure.

As for when they made these plans, I cannot say. I can say that the ECDC document I keep going on and on about was updated just 3 days ago, and the intensive care statistics and deaths that have been seen in Italy, and now other EU countries, have focussed minds on the scale of the rapidly approaching healthcare burden. And regardless of what they said publicly on Thursday, the hospital reconfiguration had already begun.

I have been a very harsh critic of their comms this last week. That doesnt mean I think they needed to announce everything last Thursday. They didnt need to do that, but they did need to give a very different overall impression than the one they ended up giving.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

agricola said:


> Closing schools for everyone except kids of cops / NHS staff is a daft idea as well - you'd have thousands of schools open with ten kids in each.



Close the majority of schools and allocate a few in each area to stay open for the children of people working in the essential professions.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 14, 2020)

I haven't been keeping up with the UK government announcements, do you think I can find them on the BBC iplayer?


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> Close the majority of schools and allocate a few in each area to stay open for the children of people working in the essential professions.



Presumably volunteers would drive these children to the hub schools (further away than normal school) yes?


----------



## clicker (Mar 14, 2020)

The numbers of kids needing day care may mean the schools themselves _don't need _to open.
Use local halls instead to accomodate the smaller numbers of kids.


sihhi said:


> Presumably volunteers would drive these children to the hub schools (further away than normal school) yes?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 14, 2020)

Interesting profile of Professor Chris Whitty here, from tonight BBC R4:








						Profile - Professor Chris Whitty - BBC Sounds
					

The coronavirus epidemic is a crisis for England's chief medical officer. How will he do?




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Maltin (Mar 14, 2020)

Although not planned until next week, Berlin's clubs and bars were shut down tonight for at least a month. Museums, cinemas, theatres are all closed too. Some restaurants, shops and public transport are still in operation.









						Important information about the current situation in Berlin
					

Stay mindful




					www.visitberlin.de


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2020)

I have to stop for the evening very soon, but just to reiterate the aspect that underpins my suggestion that it was the comms and timing more than the planned measures that the government actually botched this week:

The thing they said that was supposed to indicate that they were not just going to sit around and do nothing, was their stated intention of trying to preserve the NHS, stop it being overwhelmed.

Given the known aspects of this pandemic, this is an insane challenge, one that requires very strong measures indeed, and even those are unlikely to be enough.

But they didnt explain that properly at all, and then they said weird things about the timing, and even more misguided things about herd immunity and losing loved ones. But the fact they said the NHS stuff at all was an indication that their plans were more similar to EU countries than they gave the impression of.

I'm reasonably sure I would be telling a slightly different story if I had actually been a fly on the wall at key meetings, but since I know nothing of that I can only deal with the remaining visible aspects. No doubt Johnsons instincts would be bad news for acting in a timely and appropriate fashion, but the timing of the outbreak here and the speed with which other countries have taken dramatic measures, coupled with the comms disaster and backlash hopefully means that their opportunities to further fuck up the timing, and have a Johnson-style pandemic, are now much diminished.


----------



## Thora (Mar 14, 2020)

A friend of mine in Berlin says some kind of emergency daycare is being provided for frontline/essential workers.


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Mar 14, 2020)

I don't see any reason to believe leaks via Peston as representing the future any more than random people on Facebook tbh. Even if he does have sources, policy and policy direction changes hour by hour.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 14, 2020)

Speaking tonight to someone, their work is self employed and with vulnerable people, nearly all of it they have now cancelled because of the risks of cross infection. 

We are both practicing social distancing.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 14, 2020)

France is filling up rapidly just like Italy at the start.

300 now in ICU beds and half of them under 60.



			https://www.thelocal.fr/20200314/france-orders-all-bars-restaurants-and-non-essential-shops-to-close-to-step-coronavirus-epidemic
		


Lithuania & Israel also closing all non-essential venues.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 15, 2020)

France shuts cafes and resteraunts bars cinemas and clubs, food shops pharmacies and banks will remain open. 

Spain has moved to further restrict travel. 

Italy continues with its lock down, Rome has Chinese advisors now (from Wuhan) who are recommending early detection and isolation. 

Pretty much what I have been recommending for Britain.


----------



## Dan U (Mar 15, 2020)

ISIS advising against all travel to Europe

Which is nice.


----------



## maomao (Mar 15, 2020)

Dan U said:


> ISIS advising against all travel to Europe
> 
> Which is nice.


They've already got their masks sorted as well.


----------



## agricola (Mar 15, 2020)

> *German* newspaper Welt am Sonntag has reported that *US* president Donald Trump has sought exclusive rights to a vaccine for the coronavirus which is being developed by a German-based company, CureVac.
> The report, which quoted unnamed sources, said Trump had offered large sums of money to German scientists working on the vaccine.





(from here)


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 15, 2020)

agricola said:


> (from here)



Christ, their really are no depths that cunt won't sink to...urgh, hideous creature.


----------



## pesh (Mar 15, 2020)

I see Trumps travel ban is going well


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 15, 2020)

FridgeMagnet said:


> I don't see any reason to believe leaks via Peston as representing the future any more than random people on Facebook tbh. Even if he does have sources, policy and policy direction changes hour by hour.



Even if it's true it's a cunt's trick leaking it. Just going to lead to more panic buying and hoarding, which will disporportionately affect old folk; as well as undermining the effectiveness of whatever measures do happen.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

US former Surgeon General explains nurses and doctors are reusing masks:



_They also don’t have enough personal protective equipment. The doctors and nurses are having to reuse masks which they know is risky but they have no other choice. They are worried about running out of gowns and gloves as well. (5/x) _

I was very naive I assumed that because of swine flu and MERS scares there would be a huge store of masks.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 15, 2020)

I am hearing that UK manufacturers are going to be asked to make ventilators. 

I wonder what skills and equipment are required to make them?


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 15, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Christ, their really are no depths that cunt won't sink to...urgh, hideous creature.


They should agree, demand the money upfront and then tell him to fuck off.


----------



## Supine (Mar 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am hearing that UK manufacturers are going to be asked to make ventilators.
> 
> I wonder what skills and equipment are required to make them?



To quote my a friend who is a senior nurse 'great, will they be suppling trained staff who know how to operate the fucking things'


----------



## weltweit (Mar 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> To quote my a friend who is a senior nurse 'great, will they be suppling trained staff who know how to operate the fucking things'


Indeed, I don't know much about ventilators but I expect they are quite complex to make and complex to use also 

I don't think my employer has the skills to make a complete ventilator but perhaps we could make some components.


----------



## pesh (Mar 15, 2020)

i'm sure the dyson one will be very pretty but it will probably cost more than the hospital its in.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 15, 2020)

Just read something about someone being reinfected in Japan. How does the _herd immunity_ plan work if that is possible?


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 15, 2020)

Austria banning gatherings of more than five. Presumably there's no large families in Austria. Chinese probably kicking themselves "we could have said 3!"


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 15, 2020)

Over the border in Vietnam they have set up disinfectant showers in the street (a little eerie to me given European 20th century history, but I’m guessing they aren’t filled with zyklon b)









						WATCH: Extraordinary measures issued in Vietnam to contain coronavirus
					

CORONAVIRUS cases continue to rise across the world with over 150,000 infected people confirmed so far and almost 6,000 deaths. With 53 confirmed cases, Vietnam has issued extraordinary measures to contain the pandemic.




					www.express.co.uk


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Austria banning gatherings of more than five. Presumably there's no large families in Austria. Chinese probably kicking themselves "we could have said 3!"



Gatherings outside residences.

Here is data on 8000 confirmed cases in Korea:






Worth noting that 10-19 occupy 5% of those confirmed positive and are thus liable to spread.
Those in their twenties are 28%.
Some virologists on twitter speculating the younger the person the longer incubation the period.

The only reason South Korea has been able to hold back the rise of cases is their extensive social contact tracing where these people have been and quarantining their families and associates.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 15, 2020)

> The only reason South Korea has been able to hold back the rise of cases is their extensive social contact tracing where these people have been and quarantining their families and associates.


I believe this is a good strategy


----------



## Barking_Mad (Mar 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am hearing that UK manufacturers are going to be asked to make ventilators.
> 
> I wonder what skills and equipment are required to make them?



Or the trained people to use them.....

That's a 'no' by the way.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am hearing that UK manufacturers are going to be asked to make ventilators.
> 
> I wonder what skills and equipment are required to make them?



Not my field at all but I'd assume modern manufacturing facillities were pretty product-specific. Oh, and they're all in China. But I'm sure that won't be an issue.


----------



## kenny g (Mar 15, 2020)

Apparently there is a massive tunrover in acute nursing staff (not surprising really considering it is probably super high stress and involves watching people die) - my point being there must be a lot of trained ex-acute nursing staff out there who now work in other areas of the NHS. In addition, if you think of this as a war like situation, with sufficient work instructions on a highly specialised role i.e. how  to keep a ventilator operating, a full nursing training is probably not necessary.


----------



## kenny g (Mar 15, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> Not my field at all but I'd assume modern manufacturing facillities were pretty product-specific. Oh, and they're all in China. But I'm sure that won't be an issue.


Britain still makes cars, aero-engines, and weapons. All of which require a high degree of precision engineering.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 15, 2020)

Oh there will be UK manufacturers who can make ventilators. I was just wondering what one comprised .. the air element a bellows of some kind, some control electronics, mechanical movement, housings etc .. in addition there is probably an EN standard for them.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 15, 2020)

kenny g said:


> Apparently there is a massive tunrover in acute nursing staff (not surprising really considering it is probably super high stress and involves watching people die) - my point being there must be a lot of trained ex-acute nursing staff out there who now work in other areas of the NHS. In addition, if you think of this as a war like situation, with sufficient work instructions on a highly specialised role i.e. how  to keep a ventilator operating, a full nursing training is probably not necessary.



My mum is an ex acute care nurse, now a psych nurse. If you want to tell her she's to go back on the wards with her bad knees and two years from retirement*, good luck with that.

*bearing in mind her retirement age, like countless women in her age bracket, was increased by six years in one go so she should be retired already.


----------



## kenny g (Mar 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Oh there will be UK manufacturers who can make ventilators. I was just wondering what one comprised .. the air element a bellows of some kind, some control electronics, mechanical movement, housings etc .. in addition there is probably an EN standard for them.







__





						Draeger.Web WWW - Draeger Master
					






					www.draeger.com


----------



## a_chap (Mar 15, 2020)

Italy's just reported figures for yesterday's new cases: *3,590*


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 15, 2020)

a_chap said:


> Italy's just reported figures for yesterday's new cases: *3,590*



And, deaths up 368 to 1,809.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

a_chap said:


> Italy's just reported figures for yesterday's new cases: *3,590*









Concerning is the rise in non-Lombardy deaths:  Bologna and Venice.
As is the number in ICU 1,672. The limits are being tested.


----------



## elbows (Mar 15, 2020)

sihhi said:


> As is the number in ICU 1,672. The limits are being tested.



It was 650 one week ago. 5 days later it was 650 in the Lombardy region alone (having been 399 for Lombardy on the 8th).


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

elbows said:


> It was 650 one week ago. 5 days later it was 650 in the Lombardy region alone (having been 399 for Lombardy on the 8th).



Britain at 35 deaths - is beyond the number when Italy began social containment and quarantine we shall see.


----------



## vanya (Mar 15, 2020)

*Criticising the Coronavirus Strategy*





You don't have to be a Lisa Nandy fan to agree with her that the government's response to the Coronavirus outbreak is a shambles. A few weeks ago, their effort presented as the epitome of sensible sensiblism: track down people who'd been exposed to infection, test, isolate, and do the same for everyone else they came into touch with. And credit where credit is due, one of the reasons we're weeks behind the calamity in Italy is because containment was taken very seriously. Unfortunately, as we pass from handling a few dozen infections to thousands of ill, it's evident there are serious shortcomings in the government's approach. And you don't need a medical degree to take them to task for it.

On the media, the government's behaviour is nothing less than disgraceful. On Saturday evening, Matt Hancock's latest musings on Coronavirus - not unimportant considering he's the health secretary - were initially hidden behind the _Telegraph_ paywall. If that wasn't bad enough, the government have indulged one of Boris Johnson's favourite tools, the anonymous briefing, to test the water for quarantine measures. The latest getting a flotation was the four month at-home containment for the over 70s. There is a website, but much more is needed. Meanwhile, Johnson appears strangely reluctant to be seen leading from the front. A couple of press conferences and handwashing photo opps are the sum total of his visibility. We know he likes to hide away when times are tough, but this is hardly the Churchillian countenance one would expect from a PM who affects to incarnate his bulldog spirit. Likewise, there is no public health advertising campaign along the lines of what we saw during the HIV/AIDS crisis - no full page adverts in the papers, no information bulletins on the terrestrial TV channels, no leaflet drops. That, however, unfolded over a period of months and years. Coronavirus is an emergency changing from day-to-day, so it's about bloody time our half-arsed, part-time Prime Minister showed some urgency with a day-to-day briefing.

The second problem is the government's secretive approach, which has undermined trust by sapping public confidence in what they're doing. A bunch of idiot hacks have put out their "oh, we all have PhDs in epidemiology now" to criticisms churning about social media, but in an emergency situation where information is lacking people _will not_ take the reticence of the government as proof that all is hunky dory and we must follow the lead of the experts. Johnson can waffle on about "the science" as much as he likes, but his job is to manage the biopolitics, and he's making a hash of it. The good news is the data and the projections will shortly get published, which might lend itself to more informed commentary and debate.

I say might, because the government's crisis narrative hasn't been particularly coherent either. Preferring the intermittent announcement with nothing accompanying the daily death and infection rate, all we know is the government want to flatten the contagion curve to relieve pressure on the NHS now, crammed as it is with patients suffering the usual seasonal ailments. Okay - bump along the infection a few months so it gives the time for the NHS to stockpile, get more beds in, prevent it from getting overwhelmed, and all the rest of it. But then we're informed the government doesn't want to close schools and universities because they're worried it will store up a second viral explosion for when winter approaches. Excuse me? Which is it? We're asked to trust the government, but neither they nor the experts have set out why the extensive restrictions we see in France, Ireland, Denmark and elsewhere are not appropriate to the UK. Then there is the herd immunity strategy - the idea we keep the oldies locked up and let Coronavirus do its worst with the rest of the population, and once it's over they can come out again and mingle, safe in the knowledge everyone else has had it and can no longer be transmitted. How does this sit with the prevention and delay strategies? Or the risk to immunosuppressed younger people and those with underlying conditions? What a mess.

The government know complacency isn't a good look, hence the trailing of draconian measures modelled on the Danish response. But look further. When Matt Hancock says they're doing everything in their power to manage the crisis, are they? There's talk of taking back retired nurses and doctors to make up shortfalls as existing medical staff tend to Coronavirus demand, but have these former workers been contacted? Where do they go to volunteer? And how many does the govt suppose are going to come out of retirement for the duration of the crisis, especially when most of them are old enough to be in the high risk groups? How about making sure the health service has everything it needs? Rishi Sunak pledged the cash, but we need respirators as a matter of urgency. We need more beds. The govt plan on requisitioning private hospital beds, ensuring these providers adequately compensated (of course). As for the respirators, Robert Peston reports that the government are yet to contact Rolls Royce. You know, that small Derby-based advanced manufacturing concern responsible for two per cent of the UK's total exports and more than capable of switching production. As soon as it became clear Coronavirus would not be contained in China, why weren't preparations in train weeks ago?

Coronavirus might be indifferent to who it infects, but some people are more exposed than others and this is where the sectional character of this government stands indecently exposed. It will be easier to access social security, and those on JSA won't be required to attend regular Job Centre interviews said Johnson last week. But still nothing about protecting employees who take time off ill. Nothing about statutory sick pay for the self-employed, or those on short time working and zero hour contracts. Nothing about mortgage and rent relief. And yet the rail companies and airlines queue up for corporate welfare hand outs, and on past experience are likely to get it. The left have long argued the Tories' affected concern for the north is prolewash, and they've more or less conceded that themselves, but to see it manifest nakedly in their Coronavirus strategy is breathtaking. Compounding these matters of class is the awful Tory legacy of attacks on the public sector. Any infrastructure for mass testing has been decimated thanks to their closure of walk-in centres, nurses driven out by pressure of work and recruitment shot by introducing tuition fees, the billions wasted on the internal market, and council public health budgets raided by cash strapped authorities. The Tories have severely hampered the state's capacity to act in an emergency by gutting its capabilities and handing services over to Tory donors. A summation of Tory decadence for which we will all pay the price.

You don't have to be an epidemiologist to criticise the government's approach and we - the left - aren't criticising for the sake of being critical. In this one instance, we all want Johnson and the Tories to succeed. We want to government to keep down infection, save as many lives as possible, and ensure we come out of this crisis the other end. The _problem_ is because of the choices he and his party have made and are still making, hundreds of thousands are getting exposed to unnecessary risk. If the left doesn't put its own critique of Johnson's obvious inadequacies out there, the conspiracy theorists, the reactionaries, and the racists will. Questions of power and policy doesn't stop when there's a nationwide medical emergency, when we're in a life and death situation. Politics becomes all the more present and potent because of it.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 15, 2020)

This article and the simulations are brilliant:



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/


----------



## editor (Mar 15, 2020)

I've changed the title as the virus is now pandemic and made it a sticky. There's also another sticky thread for general chat.


----------



## editor (Mar 15, 2020)

In Hamburg,  all bars, theatres, gyms, venues etc will be closed from tomorrow until at least 30 April. 





__





						Allgemeinverfügung zur Eindämmung des Coronavirus in Hamburg
					






					www.hamburg.de


----------



## editor (Mar 15, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> This article and the simulations are brilliant:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/


I'm paywalled out


----------



## treelover (Mar 15, 2020)

vanya said:


> *Criticising the Coronavirus Strategy*
> 
> 
> 
> ...



good to see lisa being very robust, its not weaponising it, its real concern.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 15, 2020)

editor said:


> I'm paywalled out


That's weird, it's a free article


----------



## treelover (Mar 15, 2020)

> As for the respirators, Robert Peston reports that the government are yet to contact Rolls Royce. You know, that small Derby-based advanced manufacturing concern responsible for two per cent of the UK's total exports and more than capable of switching production. As soon as it became clear Coronavirus would not be contained in China, why weren't preparations in train weeks ago?



Is it all show, fucking hope not.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 15, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> Just read something about someone being reinfected in Japan. How does the _herd immunity_ plan work if that is possible?



Reports that people in China are testing positive again after recovering and being released from hospital...



'Herd immunity'?


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

Britain has overtaken China in deaths today.


----------



## clicker (Mar 15, 2020)

All major and minor Greek holiday accommodation closed until 30th April at least. Basically every hotel/apartment/hostel etc...On the mainland and islands.


----------



## elbows (Mar 15, 2020)

editor said:


> I've changed the title as the virus is now pandemic and made it a sticky. There's also another sticky thread for general chat.



I dont think its currently sticky!


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

Just to respond to that: _We want to government to keep down infection, save as many lives as possible, and ensure we come out of this crisis the other end._

The government has already failed in this. Far worse response than many countries.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

clicker said:


> All major and minor Greek holiday accommodation closed until 30th April at least. Basically every hotel/apartment/hostel etc...On the mainland and islands.



Plus all tourist sites.


----------



## magneze (Mar 15, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Britain has overtaken China in deaths today.


Probably worth clarifying what you mean there. Could be misunderstood.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

magneze said:


> Probably worth clarifying what you mean there. Could be misunderstood.



In China, 10 people, died in the last 24 hours (all in Wuhan).
In Britain, 14 people died in the last 24 hours.

More generally, perhaps I am getting it all wrong but I don't get the impression of a sharp second peak oncoming in China.


----------



## gosub (Mar 15, 2020)

Satellite images show Iran's mass graves for coronavirus victims
					

New satellite images show Iranian authorities digging large numbers of graves in the Qom area, which media reports say is due to the growing numbers of coronavirus victims in the country.




					www.space.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 15, 2020)

There have been a couple of claims of people contracting the virus after having recovered from an earlier infection. If anyone spots such reports out there please post them here.


----------



## miss direct (Mar 15, 2020)

All bars and nightlife to close in Turkey.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

Nice graph of those reporting with respiratory symptoms in NYC:


----------



## treelover (Mar 15, 2020)

on the mutual aid site discussions there are more and more small businesses, traders, etc, really worried about the future, as much of the growth in employment is in these sectors,, even amonghst those who may have preferered to work in public sector, etc, this is a massive consideration.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 15, 2020)

There have been some spontaneous protests  by shopworkers in the larger shopping malls  in Portugal


----------



## elbows (Mar 15, 2020)

> Israel's government has approved the use of anti-terrorism tracking technology in the fight against coronavirus.
> 
> Under the measure, Israel's security service Shin Bet will be able to track the movements of those whose have tested positive for virus, and discover the identities of anyone who may have come into contact with them. The monitoring will include phone data.
> 
> ...



From BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51895276


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

Queremos ir para casa We want to go home

This is a holy hell moment:
It turns it out this will be _much_ worse than Spanish Flu.









						UK coronavirus crisis 'to last until spring 2021 and could see 7.9m hospitalised'
					

Exclusive: Public Health England document seen by Guardian says four in five ‘expected’ to contract virus




					www.theguardian.com
				




A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “surge” in patients whose lives are being put at risk by Covid-19 said an 80% infection rate could lead to more than half a million people dying. If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their working assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths. 

Wuhan mortality rate was above 4%, I am not sure 1% is achievable if the NHS is overpowered.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

Bad news from USA too, 2 emergency doctors in USA are in ICU life support already.








						Two Emergency Physicians in Critical Condition
					






					www.acep.org
				




New York has 3000 ICU beds and are already 80% full with coronavirus and non-coronavirus patients.


----------



## zahir (Mar 15, 2020)

clicker said:


> All major and minor Greek holiday accommodation closed until 30th April at least. Basically every hotel/apartment/hostel etc...On the mainland and islands.


As I understand it this applies to ‘seasonal tourist accommodation’, and not to the kind of hotels that are open year round in Athens and elsewhere.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 15, 2020)

Spanish government takes control over all private hospitals and gives it to regional health ministers.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

Another interesting detail is a Princess Diamond evacuee still testing positive after 37 days and after mild symptoms have long gone. I am not convinced the government's 'stay at home for 7 days' is enough to cut it. 

“In Canada, there was one example of a super-spreader who simply walked through an emergency room that was packed, fairly packed with individuals, & infected 19 people in the less than_ 15 seconds _they were in the emergency room as they walked through it”


----------



## treelover (Mar 15, 2020)

> Union leaders are calling for private hospital beds in the *UK* to be used rent free, to ease pressure on NHS hospitals dealing with the coronavirus crisis.
> The GMB union has launched a petition urging the prime minister to requisition private hospital beds, amid reports the NHS is to spend up to £2.4m a day to do so.
> 
> Rehana Azam, GMB national officer, said:
> ...



guardian update, good to see

petition already at 125,000!


----------



## 2hats (Mar 15, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Another interesting detail is a Princess Diamond evacuee still testing positive after 37 days and after mild symptoms have long gone. I am not convinced the government's 'stay at home for 7 days' is enough to cut it.
> 
> “In Canada, there was one example of a super-spreader who simply walked through an emergency room that was packed, fairly packed with individuals, & infected 19 people in the less than_ 15 seconds _they were in the emergency room as they walked through it”


Those two statements are not necessarily related. The 'super spreader' likely was in the infectious stage. It's not yet clear if people with detectable virus N days later are shedding viable virions. It's also not clear what the exact nature of those tests are - ie what exactly does "test postive" mean here?

The stay at home for 7 days is the current limit of scientific understanding (not just government advice). It may change as we learn more. Really this is at least half of what 'flattening the curve' is about. It buys us time to do more science and so better understand how to attack this more effectively.


----------



## kropotkin (Mar 15, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> Reports that people in China are testing positive again after recovering and being released from hospital...
> 
> 
> 
> 'Herd immunity'?



What does it mean rutita? 
Do you think it means asymptomatic viral replication persists for a while after symptomatic recovery? 

Things like that matter. We don't know. We don't know if this means symptomatic reinfection, cross reactivity with other tests, false positives due to contamination etc. People need to be responsible and caveat these discussions with our lack of knowledge (not that you aren't) and not jump on news to "prove" something. It is all very complex and emergent


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

2hats said:


> Those two statements are not necessarily related. The 'super spreader' likely was in the infectious stage. It's not yet clear if people with detectable virus N days later are shedding viable virions. It's also not clear what the exact nature of those tests are - ie what exactly does "test postive" mean here?
> 
> The stay at home for 7 days is the current limit of scientific understanding (not just government advice). It may change as we learn more. Really this is at least half of what 'flattening the curve' is about. It buys us time to do more science and so better understand how to attack this more effectively.



Why shouldn't the precautionary principle be applied?

Other countries have different standards China all regions now have 14 days _after _recovery after hospital discharge quarantines.


----------



## elbows (Mar 15, 2020)

*



			California orders mandatory isolation for over-65s
		
Click to expand...

*


> California Governor Gavin Newsom has issued sweeping new restrictions for the US state.
> He's issued a compulsory isolation order for all residents aged 65 and above, and said the state is launching an effort to get get all homeless people indoors, in trailers and motels.
> The governor has also asked for bars, breweries and pubs to close their doors. He stopped short of closing restaurants, but said they need to halve their occupancy and operate home deliveries and collections.
> Governors in Ohio and Illinois issued similar orders on Sunday in an effort to curb the spread of coronavirus.



From 21:49 item at https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51895276


----------



## TopCat (Mar 15, 2020)

Pubs in Ireland shut at midnight tonight for at least one month.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 15, 2020)

Trump seems happy about this:









						Trump applauds Fed's move to slash interest rates — CNBC
					

"It makes me very happy," Trump said Sunday evening. "I think that people in the markets should be very thrilled."




					apple.news
				




He’s also given a press conference after speaking to major food retailers with the message for consumers to stop over buying goods as they won’t be running out or closing as they are naturally essential.


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 15, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Pubs in Ireland shut at midnight tonight for at least one month.



If the DFS sale ends as well I’m sorry but we are all going to die.


----------



## prunus (Mar 15, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Queremos ir para casa We want to go home
> 
> This is a holy hell moment:
> It turns it out this will be _much_ worse than Spanish Flu.
> ...



These are the numbers certainly I and many other people have been playing with for some time - I find it reassuring (within context*) that they are taking it seriously, and planning for it (again within context) rather than assuming that current measures will success to prevent it.   Hopefully it will lead to a Hubei-style lockdown and containment effort, but anything is better than heading into it willfully blind. 

* the context of the worse disaster sustained by this country since the Black Death (not hyperbole).


----------



## Limejuice (Mar 15, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Pubs in Ireland shut at midnight tonight for at least one month.


The end of the world is nigh...


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

Zhong Nanshan said these cases needed further research but there were a handful of patients under strict observation at the Japan-China Friendship Hospital, Beijing, where 'viral loads' dropped then rose then dropped again then rose then dropped again, undulating, as they recovered.

More bad news from Italy, 47 year old paramedic dead.


----------



## gosub (Mar 15, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Pubs in Ireland shut at midnight tonight for at least one month.


Pubs on the otherside of the border that isn't are going to get busy


----------



## sihhi (Mar 15, 2020)

prunus said:


> These are the numbers certainly I and many other people have been playing with for some time - I find it reassuring (within context*) that they are taking it seriously, and _planning for it_ (again within context) rather than assuming that current measures will success to prevent it.   Hopefully it will lead to a Hubei-style lockdown and containment effort, but anything is better than heading into it willfully blind.
> 
> * the context of the worse disaster sustained by this country since the Black Death (not hyperbole).



_Planning for it - _if there's was planning for it we wouldn't be following Italy's path so eagerly. 
It needed speed, the government gave nothing.
Hubei had the rest of China's health system to help it. Britain has far, far less.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 15, 2020)

Breaking news was estimation by UK Govt that 80% of UK population will be infected. 

The morbidity rate was originally estimated at 1-2 %

The experience of Italy however has showed that 3.4 to 3.7% is the true known morbidity rate, possibly an underestimate as people die from other issues and they wont be included. 

But going with the morbidity spread in the UK. 

What's the population in the UK? Sixty million? 

Let me check the population then do the maths. Its ugly. 

Feel free to beat me with the calculation.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 15, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Breaking news was estimation by UK Govt that 80% of UK population will be infected.
> 
> The morbidity rate was originally estimated at 1-2 %
> 
> ...


Each 1% is half a million deaths.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 15, 2020)

So 60,000,080 current population. 
80% of the above = 75,000,180
Italian level of death 3.4%
Predicted deaths in the UK 2,55006
With the complete ineptness shown by our Govt we will have to stick together. 
Solidarity is everything now. 
We will look back and remark on who did what.
My sums are shit. Please redo them.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 16, 2020)

80% of 60 million is 48 million, say 2% of that is 1 million


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

I still don't get why this government is such an outlier.

Lebanon has gone into a heavier lockdown until April - all non-essential shops and workplaces closed.
Saudi Arabia too the lockdown in place in one region has extended to the whole country. All shops, public gathering places, mosques closed.
Argentina has stopped all international flights for the next two weeks.
Oman has blocked all non-Omanis from entering from tomorrow.

The examples are all too many to mention are these public health advisers all getting it wrong?


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 16, 2020)

two sheds said:


> 80% of 60 million is 48 million, say 2% of that is 1 million


One thing to note, is that although Italy is absolutely fucked right now, it's still got a long way to go before 'the peak'. They have only had 0.04% of the population sick so far. 

They have put measures in place which should start to slow things down soon, but if they go to 80% like we're predicted to...expect that fatality rate to rise even further


----------



## Ax^ (Mar 16, 2020)

they planning on avoid a second wave in the winter

if you let it burn out in the first wave you've not got to wait for the second

I suspect a certain Weirdo in the UK goverment has been tasked with the response

as has been post on here they framing their response around how the spanish flu played out

saying that the Spanish flu was a very different beast


I suspect it trying not the put to much pressure on economy with a lock down 
or more cynically not damage the Brexit promise Boris has made before the end of the year


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

two sheds said:


> 80% of 60 million is 48 million, say 2% of that is 1 million


But 2% is underestimate. I have seem 3.4 to 3.7% in Italy. We are two weeks behind.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 16, 2020)

I'm being conservative


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

TopCat said:


> But 2% is underestimate. I have seem 3.4 to 3.7% in Italy. We are two weeks behind.


1.8 deaths million changes the uk forever.
Especially we could have ten million people disabled by pnemonia forever.


----------



## Ax^ (Mar 16, 2020)

TopCat said:


> 1
> 8 million changes the uk forever.



it should not kill 8 million its not targeting enough groups to cover that


even the spanish flu which attacked people with healthy immunes systems with a cytokine storm 

only killed 50 millions people world wide


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 16, 2020)

The other thing to consider here of course is that as things fall apart there will also be collateral deaths as people can't get their meds, treatment, necessary intervention, emergency health care. 

Deaths resulting from the virus is not the only issue. Death from any cause will probably go up too.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

Society could crumble. They will not be enough well people to work for pittance to keep rich shits and their infrastructure well serviced.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

Ax^ said:


> it should not kill 8 million its not targeting enough groups to cover that
> 
> 
> even the spanish flu which attacked people with healthy immunes systems with a cytokine storm
> ...


Sorry 1.8 million.


----------



## BCBlues (Mar 16, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> The other thing to consider here of course is that as things fall apart there will also be collateral deaths as people can't get their meds, treatment, necessary intervention, emergency health care.
> 
> Deaths resulting from the virus is not the only issue. Death from any cause will probably go up too.



I was just thinking similar. How many people with depression, stress and anxiety will this push over the edge?  Worrying Times.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Society could crumble. They will not be enough well people to work for pittance to keep rich shits and their infrastructure well serviced.


Ugly timed


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

BCBlues said:


> I was just thinking similar. How many people with depression, stress and anxiety will this push over the edge?  Worrying Times.


I have been really isolated for months due to illness. Self isolate for four months. I may just go wandering. Cant see my brain would take it without depression otherwise.


----------



## treelover (Mar 16, 2020)

Some people in the growing support networks mutual aid groups, inc pychologists, therapists, counsellors are offering tele chats, some visits, etc, they will be needed.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 16, 2020)

BCBlues said:


> I was just thinking similar. How many people with depression, stress and anxiety will this push over the edge?  Worrying Times.




But also, this is happening after 10 years of grinding austerity. There is no buffer, no bounce, no fat to fall back on at all our system. We're pared back to the bedrock as it is. People are worn out and used up. This lie about people being happily employed when in fact it's zero hours contracts and the gig economy and people at home fossicking around with kitchen table hopes and dreams. There is nothing to soak any of this up.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

If pubs shut in the uk for a month plus, how long before riots? 
If jobseekers ain't paid how long before riots?
If home helps dont come and leave clients in their own feaces in bed all day, how long before riots? 
The Govt should be more scared than when they tried the poll tax. 
Nearly 30 years ago that. Anniversary is next month. The return of the London Mob is close.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 16, 2020)

TopCat said:


> If pubs shut in the uk for a month plus, how long before riots?
> If jobseekers ain't paid how long before riots?
> If home helps done come and leave clients in their own faces in bed all day, how long before riots?
> The Govt should be more scared than when they tried the poll tax.
> Nearly 30 years ago that. The return of the London Mob is close.




People won't riot in a pandemic til they're hungry.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

All the east euros in Ireland working for fuck all in pubs and cafes and restaurants and with no recourse to public funds. 
What will they do? LiamO what's the feeling over there?


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> People won't riot in a pandemic til they're hungry.


Only 2 days food supplies in London. See how parents act when they cant feed their kids for two days.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 16, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Only 2 days food supplies in London. See how parents act when they cant feed their kids for two days.




According to the spods on The Food Programme yesterday the food chain is currently in pretty good order (although of course they would say that wouldn't they). I suspect that - because of the risk of civil unrest if the food runs out - they'll do their best to keep it going. 











						BBC Radio 4 - The Food Programme, Covid-19: The Food Dimension.
					

Dan Saladino tracks the origins and impact of coronavirus within the food supply chain.




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> But also, this is happening after 10 years of grinding austerity. There is no buffer, no bounce, no fat to fall back on at all our system. We're pared back to the bedrock as it is. People are worn out and used up. This lie about people being happily employed when in fact it's zero hours contracts and the gig economy and people at home fossicking around with kitchen table hopes and dreams. There is nothing to soak any of this up.


There is fat, there is spare, there is enough for everyone. It needs to be taken by murderous force from those who obsess about accumulation and depriving us from our righful share.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> According to the spods on The Food Programme yesterday the food chain is currently in pretty good order (although of course they would say that wouldn't they). I suspect that - because of the risk of civil unrest if the food runs out - they'll do their best to keep it going.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Did you, a rational person, believe this?


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 16, 2020)

TopCat said:


> There is fat, there is spare, there is enough for everyone. It needs to be taken by murderous force from those who obsess about accumulation and depriving us from our righful share.




It's not in the system though, it's been creamed off.

I get what you mean: the resources and riches still do exist. But the significance of way the rest of us have been left with fuck all cannot be underestimated or undone*. So the current situation of a serious pandemic is happening in the context of there being nothing. It's as if there's nothing, Because those crazy locusts have stolen it away from us.




*well at any rate not right away, and not right now.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 16, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Did you, a rational person, believe this?




Did you see the bit where I said "well they would say that wouldn't they"


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

Limejuice said:


> The end of the world is nigh...


I predict our pubs shut with two weeks


----------



## TopCat (Mar 16, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Did you see the bit where I said "well they would say that wouldn't they"


No sorry I read it but did not absorb.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 16, 2020)

Limejuice said:


> The end of the world



Good name for a pub


----------



## scifisam (Mar 16, 2020)

TopCat said:


> All the east euros in Ireland working for fuck all in pubs and cafes and restaurants and with no recourse to public funds.
> What will they do? LiamO what's the feeling over there?



They do have recourse to public funds, at least until we leave the EU - not sure about after that.


----------



## Ax^ (Mar 16, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Good name for a pub



might get copy right shoutout from a pub in camden


----------



## hermitical (Mar 16, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Good name for a pub



We have the World's End down the road...


----------



## gosub (Mar 16, 2020)

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
		


Reckons the mortality rate has been underestimated,


----------



## spring-peeper (Mar 16, 2020)

It is really strange to watch my country, Canada, shut down.

Everything is closing down, right down to my curling club. Schools, churches, coffee chains, community groups, charities, anything that requires human contact is gone.

The hospital in my closest town, Alexandria, Ontario ( pop 3000), had our first confirmed case of the virus.  It shattered any hope that this was a big city problem.  I know my paranoia sky rocketed.  Several hours later, a release said that the woman was not from here. She was in the next county over and just used our hospital due to our short wait times.

So, we are sitting here at home.  No curling, no wood carving, just maple syrup and the occasional visit from my daughter.  She brings her new babe up to escape from Alexandria.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 16, 2020)

gosub said:


> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
> 
> 
> 
> Reckons the mortality rate has been underestimated,


It really is just SARS, then.

Fuck.


----------



## Graymalkin (Mar 16, 2020)

> It is really strange to watch my country, Canada, shut down.
> 
> Everything is closing down, right down to my curling club. Schools, churches, coffee chains, community groups, charities, anything that requires human contact is gone.



Meanwhile, the 'future leaders of Canada' over at Queens couldn't help but have another of their street parties this weekend.  My Step daughter is a triage nurse and was working at Kingston General Hospital 1/2 a KM away triaging these drunk assholes. 

For those not in the know, Queens university in Kingston prides itself as the "Harvard of the North" (the son of former PM Stephen Harper did his undergrad there) and is also one of the most notorious party schools in the country.  The block parties of previous years have included flipped cars, roofs collapsing under the weight of the students standing on it, and a perennial mess of broken glass and litter.

Global news coverage.


----------



## elbows (Mar 16, 2020)

gosub said:


> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30195-X/fulltext
> 
> 
> 
> Reckons the mortality rate has been underestimated,



I'm not convinced of the merits of that. Some of its methodology surely makes issues caused by the undetected cases, and other issues with timely testing, have a potentially even more misleading effect on what is trying to be deduced from the data. For example a lot of cases that died will likely not have tested positive 14 or more days before their death, because they were not spotted till quite late on. And if those cases werent picked up early, then a hell of a lot of other ones were surely missed at the time too. Some of the early UK deaths were only tested very close to the point of their death.

Not that this lets us off the hook. I think several locations have demonstrated that case fatality rates can be much higher at early stages, especially when widespread community outbreak is not detected until the seriously ill patients, quite close to death already, are detected. And, given the rather high percentage of cases that need hospital care to survive, overwhelmed hospitals etc can also make a hideously large difference to mortality rates.


----------



## elbows (Mar 16, 2020)

Comforting to know that parp is on the case. I dont actually know anything about this stuff, I just liked the acronym.


----------



## elbows (Mar 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> Not that this lets us off the hook. I think several locations have demonstrated that case fatality rates can be much higher at early stages, especially when widespread community outbreak is not detected until the seriously ill patients, quite close to death already, are detected. And, given the rather high percentage of cases that need hospital care to survive, overwhelmed hospitals etc can also make a hideously large difference to mortality rates.



King County in Washington state also provides an example.
(data from https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus )

420 positive/confirmed cases. 37 deaths.

Clearly this is a vivid example of insufficient number of tests/positive cases skewing the ratio.

But there are probably some other stories to this number too. I picked this location because we know that many of the fatalities have been from a care home cluster, and if I remember properly it was this cluster that raised the alarm that there was community spread in that part of the country in the first place. The ages/medical conditions of people infected there will have had an impact on these numbers.

Because lets not forget, data already sugests that the mortality rate for Covid-19 is strongly related to age. So its to be expected that, if the oldest people become critically ill first, the death rate will start at the higher end. Combine that with the greater chances that more milder cases havent been spotted in the area at the early stages at all, and its no wonder the death rate can be really high at that time and place. What scares me more is how high the actual mortality rate can go when healthcare cant provide intensive care properly for everyone at all anymore in a region


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 16, 2020)

I thought this guardian article was interesting. France’s health minister warning that taking ibuprofen may make a covid19 infection worse. I’m sure many people would automatically reach for ibuprofen in the case of aches or fever, so worth publicising widely if this is true.

I doubt the French health minister would be tweeting that unless he was sure of it, so hopefully it gets added to the official UK advice pronto.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 16, 2020)

Coronavirus: Thousands of armed forces staff could be put on standby over COVID-19 spread — Sky News
					

More than 10,000 British soldiers, sailors and airmen could be put on standby in the coming weeks as the coronavirus crisis worsens.




					apple.news
				






> Globally more than 162,000 are infected and over 6,000 have died


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 16, 2020)

This is a positive article:









						UK coronavirus Brit heroes who are spreading kindness at time of Covid-19 crisis — The Mirror
					

In response to the coronavirus triggered lockdown Brits across the country have gone out of their way to help their friends and neighbours, including a couple who spent £2,000 on sanitary products




					apple.news
				




Community spirit and cooperation goes a long way.


----------



## hegley (Mar 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> Comforting to know that parp is on the case.


I think I have that gene.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 16, 2020)

TopCat said:


> There is fat, there is spare, there is enough for everyone. It needs to be taken by murderous force from those who obsess about accumulation and depriving us from our righful share.


Settle down, Immortan Joe.


----------



## platinumsage (Mar 16, 2020)

sihhi said:


> “In Canada, there was one example of a super-spreader who simply walked through an emergency room that was packed, fairly packed with individuals, & infected 19 people in the less than_ 15 seconds _they were in the emergency room as they walked through it”



Interesting contrast here:

A 60 year old woman infected her husband, but of the 347 other contacts traced including 195 healthcare workers, none of them contracted it: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30607-3/fulltext 

We really need to improve our understanding of this super-spreading phenomenon


----------



## Lord Camomile (Mar 16, 2020)

Don't know if it's been covered elsewhere, but apparently Austria (or Vienna, at least) have suspended the right to assembly and gatherings of more than 5 people are no longer allowed


----------



## pogofish (Mar 16, 2020)

Well, I’m sitting waiting on a job - we got a vaguely worded email over the weekend that said we were still open, just no events/big meetings and no face to face for a large part of our work.

So today’s job fell outside of that but I’ve been here for twenty minutes and nobody’s shown-up. I have five more sessions scheduled this week.

Just as well I took coffee and an iPad..!


----------



## Callie (Mar 16, 2020)

sihhi said:


> where 'viral loads' dropped then rose then dropped again then rose then dropped again, undulating, as they recovered.


Which is totally normal with viral loads btw they undulate but the general trend is the important bit


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 16, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> I thought this guardian article was interesting. France’s health minister warning that taking ibuprofen may make a covid19 infection worse. I’m sure many people would automatically reach for ibuprofen in the case of aches or fever, so worth publicising widely if this is true.
> 
> I doubt the French health minister would be tweeting that unless he was sure of it, so hopefully it gets added to the official UK advice pronto.




Also, using ibuprofen to suppress a fever can increase viral shedding, potentially making us more contagious. Suppressing the fever with aspirin or paracetamol also increases viral shedding.

If we’re isolating at home this becomes somewhat moot since we won’t be exposing others anyway (except the people we live with of course, but I really think it’s almost impossible to self isolate within a household), but it’s something I think should be more widely known.

Viral shedding doesn’t necessarily mean that all the stuff we’re shedding is a viable vector for contagion, but since we’re still groping in the dark here it’s probably worth being cautious, better safe than sorry.

Also, it’s been mentioned elsewhere and I think it’s important enough to mention again: there are reports that some survivors are viral shedding for up to 37 days after recovery. The shedding seems to fluctuate, and again it’s unclear how contagious the viral shedding is. But this means that it is possible that a person who has had a mild case and returns to work could possibly still be contagious for some weeks after they were ill.


----------



## Serge Forward (Mar 16, 2020)

Bleedin' 'ell... a Chinese friend tells me Beijing airport is jammed up with students just arrived back from the UK, all having temperature checks and on the way to quarantine. They seemed to be of the opinion that they didn't want to die alone here


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 16, 2020)

Lord Camomile said:


> Don't know if it's been covered elsewhere, but apparently Austria (or Vienna, at least) have suspended the right to assembly and gatherings of more than 5 people are no longer allowed


(((parents of quadruplets)))


----------



## Kilgore Trout (Mar 16, 2020)

I'm immuno-suppressed due to my arthritis meds and wondering if I will have to self isolate, along with the over 70s, for "a long time" when we move to the delay phase in a few weeks time. No clear advice on this that I can find. Hopefully it will become clearer over the coming days.


----------



## Lord Camomile (Mar 16, 2020)

Serge Forward said:


> Bleedin' 'ell... a Chinese friend tells me Beijing airport is jammed up with students just arrived back from the UK, all having temperature checks and on the way to quarantine. They seemed to be of the opinion that they didn't want to die alone here


Mate at work has booked a flight home to Greece for Wednesday, looking to get in before the borders close.

I can understand the impulse. I've certainly thought about heading back to my parents, who are only the other side of London, but with an at-risk dad I'm just not sure it's the best idea.

And bloody Mother's Day on Sunday...


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 16, 2020)

Lord Camomile said:


> And bloody Mother's Day on Sunday...


Nothing says "I love you" like a 24 pack of toilet rolls.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 16, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> Nothing says "I love you" like a 24 pack of toilet rolls.



Thanks for that suggestion, mother is now going to get some bog roll on Sunday, for the lolz.


----------



## zahir (Mar 16, 2020)

Lord Camomile said:


> Mate at work has booked a flight home to Greece for Wednesday, looking to get in before the borders close.



There’s now a 14 day quarantine for everyone arriving. Most shops will be closed from Wednesday, exceptions include supermarkets, pharmacies and banks.









						Coronavirus: 14-day quarantine for those coming to Greece from abroad - Keep Talking Greece
					

Those arriving to Greece from abroad will be placed in 14-day quarantine, deputy government spokespe




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## Lord Camomile (Mar 16, 2020)

zahir said:


> There’s now a 14 day quarantine for everyone arriving. Most shops will be closed from Wednesday, exceptions include supermarkets, pharmacies and banks.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Better tell my mate, although the flights are already booked...


----------



## zahir (Mar 16, 2020)

There’s no explanation of how quarantine in Greece will actually work. It might just mean him going to his parents’ house and staying inside for 14 days. It might be an idea for him to try and find out though.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 16, 2020)

> China is relaxing travel bans in Hubei province, including Wuhan - the city where coronavirus broke out.
> 
> Thousands of workers are being sent back to jobs at factories in a drive to get production going again.
> 
> ...



BIB - let's hope they are right, but a lot of experts expect it to take off again when lock-downs are lifted, can it seriously be stopped this easily? 

I guess we'll know in the next few weeks.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

Schools have reopened in Xinjiang


----------



## Lord Camomile (Mar 16, 2020)

zahir said:


> There’s no explanation of how quarantine in Greece will actually work. It might just mean him going to his parents’ house and staying inside for 14 days. It might be an idea for him to try and find out though.


Yeah, this suggests it's home quarantine, and when I spoke to him he seemed to already know about it.


> Moreover, the authorities said a 14-day home restriction will be mandatory for those who enter the country.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> BIB - let's hope they are right, but a lot of experts expect it to take off again when lock-downs are lifted, can it seriously be stopped this easily?
> 
> I guess we'll know in the next few weeks.



Which experts?


----------



## William of Walworth (Mar 16, 2020)

Is there any prospect of schools closing here (UK)? 
That wouldn't affect us personally, but there was a fair bit of talk in the Observer yesterday about how keeping them open was out of line with many other country's policies.

And what about workplaces with really numerous employees ( e.g. 1,000 plus, like mine) 

(Apologies if this has been discussed in detail already, but I am interested)


----------



## Spandex (Mar 16, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> Is there any prospect of schools closing here (UK)?


Yes.

The Headteacher at my kid's primary said she'd been asked to prepare home schooling packs by this Friday.

The school WhatsApp groups are a flurry of learning resources going around. 

Everyone thinks it's when, not if. The general assumption seems to be that they'll be closed from next week.

But obviously, no-one knows anything for sure.


----------



## chilango (Mar 16, 2020)

There's a certain irony for both Leavers and Remainers in the EU shutting it's borders quicker than the UK


----------



## William of Walworth (Mar 16, 2020)

Spandex : OK, thanks -- I was expecting an answer something like that in fact, because there's been talk round here (Swansea) along the same sort of 'when not if' lines.


----------



## chilango (Mar 16, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> Is there any prospect of schools closing here (UK)?
> That wouldn't affect us personally, but there was a fair bit of talk in the Observer yesterday about how keeping them open was out of line with many other country's policies.
> 
> And what about workplaces with really numerous employees ( e.g. 1,000 plus, like mine)
> ...


Yep. The 27th has long been mooted as the possible closure date for schools. Teachers are actively setting up remote learning for pupils as we speak. Nobody _knows_ for sure, but, yeah it's pretty much when, not if.


----------



## maomao (Mar 16, 2020)

I keep getting emails telling me my daughter's school is definitely still open from which I can only surmise that they'll be closing it very soon.


----------



## maomao (Mar 16, 2020)

DP


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> And what about workplaces with really numerous employees ( e.g. 1,000 plus, like mine)


Nothing as yet.
Stay at home strike action has shut all of Mercedes plants in Spain.


----------



## Louis MacNeice (Mar 16, 2020)

Spandex said:


> Yes.
> 
> The Headteacher at my kid's primary said she'd been asked to prepare home schooling packs by this Friday.
> 
> ...



I've also heard of two head teachers locally (Brighton) who are preparing for closure by the end of the week. It is going to happen and soon.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice


----------



## Cid (Mar 16, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> BIB - let's hope they are right, but a lot of experts expect it to take off again when lock-downs are lifted, can it seriously be stopped this easily?
> 
> I guess we'll know in the next few weeks.



I mean... if by easily you mean effectively shutting down an entire country for 2 months.

Although schools are starting to go back, there will still be social distancing in place afaik. My friends' university course are still all online... But it is a worry that the propaganda organs are saying the worst has passed, that will give people the confidence to start mixing again, unless they have some caveats.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 16, 2020)

Over 40% of infected are in hospital in Spain 









						Canada closes borders to foreigners – as it happened
					

WHO urges governments to ‘test, test, test’; US measures ramped up; Germany closes shops. This blog is closed.




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Nanker Phelge (Mar 16, 2020)

Age Uk Lambeth have just messaged to say we can't make visits to elderly befriendees until further notice....and to maintain contact by phone....

Not all old folk have a phone,or internet.


----------



## elbows (Mar 16, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Over 40% of infected are in hospital in Spain



What that most probably indicates is the relative lack of confirmed/tested milder cases there.


----------



## elbows (Mar 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> What that most probably indicates is the relative lack of confirmed/tested milder cases there.



I should have also taken that opportunity to mention that since UK testing approach changed, almost 100% of our confirmed cases could be hospitalised in future, because those that arent in hospital wont end up being part of the stats at all.

Not that it could reach 100% due to those picked up in the earlier phase of testing, and the ongoing community surveillance sampling from locations other than hospitals, and testing related to institutional outbreaks (prisons etc). But hopefully my point makes sense!


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 16, 2020)

Scenes from Krakow, Poland:


Poland's measures came in overnight Saturday/Sunday, all foreign travellers entering into Poland are banned unless they have residency, work, spouse etc. Bars/restaurants are closed. Schools/nurseries are closed. Small businesses are mainly encouraging people to work from home if possible. Shopping malls are closed. Gyms, theatres, cinemas, etc all closed and any public gathering of more than 50 people has been barred.

The shops remain open but many shops have started a queuing system so that there are not too many people in the shops at one time, and people keep their distance. The city has lifted the parking zones to encourage people who must travel into the city to avoid public transport, and to walk or drive solo instead.

There are not many reports of panic buying. Most people are being very responsible and only taking what they need.

So far in Krakow we had one confirmed case in hospital, but it has just been announced that there are 2 other cases in Krk, and the total number of cases so far i hovering around 150 with 3 dead.

Lockdown started pretty much as soon as the first death was announced but the interesting thing is that even on Friday, before anything were announced people had already decided to practise social distancing and stay at home. The streets on Friday and the bars and restaurants were pretty much empty. People here are taking it very seriously but not panicking. Most businesses had told people to work from home before any measures were announced and my school closed on Thursday.

There are no bans on people leaving the house, so people are going for walks to parks, but everyone is keeping a distance from family groups and each other and giving people space.

There are community initiatives to get supplies that are needed into hospitals before the shit hits the fan, this Facebook page for examples are asking people to donate cotton, wire or even make things for potential patients. People are really pulling together. Maseczki dla krakowskich medyków

The government are expecting figures of cases to reach 4 figures within 10 days and that's with lockdown in place. I've heard there are 2 new cases in Krakow today. The measures are in place for 2 weeks, but I do expect they will be in place for longer.

Everyone here is absolutely shocked by what is going on the UK. People just can't believe that the government are putting so many people at risk, and that people are still going to pubs and bars.

I'm so proud to call this place home - even if I basically have no income at the moment. Skype lessons are go, but unsurprisingly not that many people are interested.

I have to say I'm super impressed with the way the community has stuck together, helped each other, been responsible.  And been so pro active.


----------



## elbows (Mar 16, 2020)

WHO Director General just said  'you cannot fight a fire blindfolded'.

And 'We have a simple message for all countries. Test, test, test.'


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 16, 2020)

Louis MacNeice said:


> I've also heard of two head teachers locally (Brighton) who are preparing for closure by the end of the week. It is going to happen and soon.
> 
> Cheers - Louis MacNeice



Our head (a secondary - also Brighton) seems to agree with what chilango is hearing - 27th/the week before the Easter hols - but I think he's just as likely to be guessing as the rest of us are, tbf!


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> WHO Director General just said  'you cannot fight a fire blindfolded'.
> 
> And 'We have a simple message for all countries. Test, test, test.'





Yes many made the point a while back that 1,500 was not enough that university laboratories should have been taken over to meet the task, also crucial is the PPE shortage:

_Halfway through our mask-fitting programme we have run out of the type of mask that was most commonly being fitted, rendering two weeks of intensive training useless.  

That hospital is already full and our staff have begun to get sick. A hastily convened ethics panel will try to offer us some guidance on how we ration our limited resources and to whom we will be forced to deny lifesaving treatment. The numbers imply that this will not have to happen in the summer, or in a few weeks, but in a few days. _


He also said "we haven't seen enough escalation in testing, isolation & contact tracing, which is the backbone of the #COVID19 response"

When anyone starts showing symptoms all their contacts must be isolated ASAP. As it is, the country has given up, no one knows where confirmed cases went or did.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 16, 2020)

FabricLiveBaby! said:


> Scenes from Krakow, Poland:
> 
> 
> Poland's measures came in overnight Saturday/Sunday, all foreign travellers entering into Poland are banned unless they have residency, work, spouse etc. Bars/restaurants are closed. Schools/nurseries are closed. Small businesses are mainly encouraging people to work from home if possible. Shopping malls are closed. Gyms, theatres, cinemas, etc all closed and any public gathering of more than 50 people has been barred.
> ...



Are there any plans to help with the loss of incomes?!


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 16, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Are there any plans to help with the loss of incomes?!



I don't know of any as yet, but it could be because the news hadn't reached me. I'm guessing that there will be other measures depending on what happens across Europe. I'm thinking there probably will be something, but it hasn't been announced yet and I'm guessing that it is being talked about behind closed doors. TBH most people are willing to take a hit on income while the govt gets a true measure of what is going on. But I do suspect that this is going to go on for longer than the initial 14 days. I'm almost certain the border closures will stay in place while other European nations haven't got it under control. 

Another good thing the govt has done is that the are recording all coach and train seats with people travelling and names. That way if anything happens they can trace movement.

For sure we are all waiting for summer - and hoping for a hot one.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 16, 2020)

sheothebudworths said:


> Are there any plans to help with the loss of incomes?!



I mean part of the problem is that whatever the govt decide to do is going to be shit in some way.  It's just a case of what is the least shit option.  And for most people that seems to be acting quickly to mitigate and taking a financial hit while the picture emerges.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

Another significant deviation from British policy:
"People infected with #COVID19 can still infect others after they stop feeling sick, so these measures should continue for at least 2 weeks after symptoms disappear. Visitors should not be allowed until the end of this period. There are more details in WHO’s guidance"

Chris Whitty in the press conference explicitly said 7 days.

Yesterday Germany recorded 5813 cases and 13 deaths, UK recorded 1391 cases and triple the deaths. So there is a massive disconnect going on. The problem is contact tracing has been professionalised, so people don't do it themselves anyone who feels sick should immediately be telling anyone they met in the past 14 days to isolate. (I know that sentence will be unpopular, but there we are).


----------



## bimble (Mar 16, 2020)

Some rumours that the eu as a whole are discussing shutting its borders soon, leaving this brave undaunted nation looking a bit fucking stupid. There’d be something pleasing about that if it wasn’t for the pandemic.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 16, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Yes many made the point a while back that 1,500 was not enough that university laboratories should have been taken over to meet the task, also crucial is the PPE shortage:
> 
> _Halfway through our mask-fitting programme we have run out of the type of mask that was most commonly being fitted, rendering two weeks of intensive training useless.
> 
> ...


The lass I sit next to at work (too close even without a pandemic, tbh) - her dad was at church with an infected person and had symptoms last week but no test yet. She sent me this message this morning:


> he called 111 up and they said that they aren't rushing to him to test him because he is rated at a 3. They told him to call the docs. He phoned the docs this morning. If you've already had it and survived it your immune to it. She just told him that he is free to move around now because he doesn't show any symptoms. I'm not showing any symptoms either


----------



## elbows (Mar 16, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Chris Whitty in the press conference explicitly said 7 days.



Thats almost certainly the consequence of them not doing testing beyond hospitals etc. Because they arent testing mild cases, they have to give advice about self isolation while ill that they know will also end up including people with other illnesses that are not Covid-19. So they have probably done the maths and seen what that will do for workforce numbers, and decided to alter that particular burden by going for 7 days instead of 14.

I do not support this strategy, I'm just explaining that aspect. They are playing a numbers game based on a very different set of assumptions about what people will put up with, economic effects etc, and the medium term plan compared to many other countries.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 16, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Which experts?



Plenty, fucking shedloads, I could quote the likes of the chief medical officer and the chief scientific adviser, but lets go with someone totally independent from our government...



> There are also serious concerns that lifting the restrictions will rekindle the epidemic. Adam Kucharski, an associate professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who carried out an analysis of early Covid-19 dynamics in Wuhan, wrote yesterday that, “there's evidence that the vast majority of the population is still susceptible in Wuhan”, estimating that the total figure at the end of January was likely around 95 per cent. “As soon as control measures are lifted, there is the risk of new introduced cases - and another outbreak,” Kucharski added.
> 
> “It's not sustainable,” says Flahaut. “It is something which is short term – the epidemic dynamic will restart soon as soon as you lift the measures.” As China tries to get its citizens back to work, it may see another spike.“They’re normalising life back in other parts of China now,” says Bogoch. And as they do that, they may see more cases – they're not finished, and this isn't over.”
> 
> SOURCE



It works in bringing an outbreak back under control, you can get back to testing in the hope of cases being caught early, combined with contact tracing etc., but as long as there's still new cases, no matter how low, there's a risk it will take off again.

It's basic logic when you think about, every country started with a handful of cases being picked-up, some were very good in catching them early, isolating them, and doing contact tracing, yet it still took off at varying speeds. 

Until there's no new cases whatsoever, it's not over, especially as every new case can go on to infect loads more people.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 16, 2020)

sihhi said:


> Another significant deviation from British policy:
> "People infected with #COVID19 can still infect others after they stop feeling sick, so these measures should continue for at least 2 weeks after symptoms disappear. Visitors should not be allowed until the end of this period. There are more details in WHO’s guidance"



I did this on Wednesday. I woke up with a cough and sore throat. Nothing else. No fever or anything and just on that I phoned the school to say I wasn't going to go in just in case. They said they were cancelling classes anyway just in case.

I still have a cough and sore throat - nothing else. I'm hoping it's just a standard bug - I have no tonsils and these fucking things _love_ to sit in my throat and I often get quite bad coughs . I'm staying the fuck away from people either way.

The weird thing is, that this is normal thinking here.  "Stay the fuck away from people and stop spreading your germs about".  It used to make me puzzled the amount of medicine adverts on telly here, and that as soon as people got even the sniffles they would work from home or failing that get signed off by the doc for 2 weeks.  Slowly came to realise that for this part of Europe it's just normal behaviour not to pass your germs on to other people.  I'm glad of that culture now I tell you!


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 16, 2020)

chilango said:


> There's a certain irony for both Leavers and Remainers in the EU shutting it's borders quicker than the UK


Yes but goods and services are exempt


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 16, 2020)

"National fight-back!" 

What a massive bell-end Johnson is.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 16, 2020)

Live broadcast on BBC1 now.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

Adam Kucharski is part of the modelling group at LSHTM, U of London, giving its models to SAGE, Scientific Advisory Group in Emergencies



I think China's contact tracing and isolation will clamp down on any spike.

"As China tries to get its citizens back to work, it may see another spike"

For the sake of this hypothetical future China spike, action is being delayed now in Britain even though Mike Ryan of the WHO said you need speed not perfection, because the virus is several steps ahead of you.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 16, 2020)

Fuck. That's me going nowhere for the foreseeable.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 16, 2020)

Flew back in from SE Asia yesterday.  So more chilled out there, people just going about their day to day.  Shelves full.  Its mental here, the wheels have come off big time. So much for British stoicism. Keep calm and carry on my arse.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 16, 2020)

Also that fat cunt can go fuck himself.  If I fancy a pint at the local I'm going to have one.


----------



## elbows (Mar 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> WHO Director General just said  'you cannot fight a fire blindfolded'.
> 
> And 'We have a simple message for all countries. Test, test, test.'



BBC just asked Johnson about this. Whitty ended up answering that part of the question. Fudge answer really, although they said they would continue to scale up their testing. This answer dodges the central point of the WHOs stance.


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 16, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Flew back in from SE Asia yesterday.  So more chilled out there, people just going about their day to day.  Shelves full.  Its mental here, the wheels have come off big time. So much for British stoicism. Keep calm and carry on my arse.



It’s been a myth since at least 97.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 16, 2020)

Artaxerxes said:


> It’s been a myth since at least 97.



No, South East Asia really exists.  Take my word on it.


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 16, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> No, South East Asia really exists.  Take my word on it.



Stuff upper lip lad.

SE Asia’s great.


----------



## LDC (Mar 16, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Also that fat cunt can go fuck himself.  If I fancy a pint at the local I'm going to have one.



You absolute fucking prick.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 16, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Also that fat cunt can go fuck himself.  If I fancy a pint at the local I'm going to have one.


You're either a troll or a moron. Probably both.


----------



## ElizabethofYork (Mar 16, 2020)

The university I work at has cancelled all lectures for the rest of the academic year.  Everything's going online.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 16, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> You absolute fucking prick.



You have preempted my response, I wasn't going to put it quite as strongly, but yes, grossly irresponsible to be out and about for the next few days.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> BBC just asked Johnson about this. Whitty ended up answering that part of the question. Fudge answer really, although they said they would continue to scale up their testing. This answer dodges the central point of the WHOs stance.



The main issue is lack of reagant and material not enough capacity, when they had _7 weeks_. Where are those 5,000 a day? 

The tests are being misdirected perhaps those in hospital don't need testing everyone with breathing difficulty should be assumed to be a case. It's others including asymptomatics outside that need testing and isolation.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Also that fat cunt can go fuck himself.  If I fancy a pint at the local I'm going to have one.



What's wrong with you? You should act as if you are a carrier to slow its spread.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 16, 2020)

sihhi said:


> perhaps those in hospital don't need testing everyone with breathing difficulty should be assumed to be a case


Unless you're a qualified doctor, I don't think you can assume anything of the sort.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> Unless you're a qualified doctor, I don't think you can assume anything of the sort.



It's become the working assumption in Italy. Maybe it will here too. Tomographies are also too slow apparently.

It's also apparently an axiom in infectious pandemics that as cases rise 
_Can I remind everyone that at some point during any significant outbreak/pandemic the positive predictive value of a clinical diagnosis becomes close to 100%. At that point the laboratory test becomes redundant._

This is why China changed its case definitions because it was out of testing capacity, but as the effect of containment measures came to fruition and the peak was passed tests could be carried out.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 16, 2020)

Yeah, sorry. Was a stupid but I am just so done with it all.

Just wanted to get some foil and bin bags from the supermarket but the shelves have been stripped bare of everything.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 16, 2020)

I remain convinced that the global recession that the response to the virus will likely cause is going to kill loads more than the virus itself.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 16, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I remain convinced that the global recession that the response to the virus will likely cause is going to kill loads more than the virus itself.


You're probably right - doesn't mean we should all just throw up our hands and give up trying to avoid dying.


----------



## existentialist (Mar 16, 2020)

Probably inevitable, but the band has taken the decision to cancel Saturday's gig. Boo.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

Bad news from Italy lots of new cases in Piedmont.

About 350 deaths in 24 hours.


----------



## xenon (Mar 16, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Also that fat cunt can go fuck himself.  If I fancy a pint at the local I'm going to have one.



Posting this from the pub. Obv I will stay home if i become ill. Now avoiding vunrible as far as poss.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 16, 2020)

xenon said:


> Posting this from the pub. Obv I will stay home if i become ill. Now avoiding vunrible as far as poss.



You can catch it AND spread it before showing signs of illness.


----------



## treelover (Mar 16, 2020)

> _Q: Will you take more action to help low-income households. Statutory sick pay is less than £100 a week?_
> Johnson claims he is doing a lot already. The living wage is being lifted by a huge amount.
> He says no one should be penalised for doing the right thing.



so now more extra SSP, other benefits, mentioning the rise in min wage has absolutely no bearing on this crisis, pathetic.


----------



## xenon (Mar 16, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> You can catch it AND spread it before showing signs of illness.



I won’t be out much next few weeks but i was already on my way here.


----------



## kropotkin (Mar 16, 2020)

ElizabethofYork said:


> The university I work at has cancelled all lectures for the rest of the academic year.  Everything's going online.


I'm a senior tutor for med students--they were told last week to keep coming to hospital.i told them that was irresponsible and signed them all off early. They have now all been sent home by the university (except for final year students who they are keen to graduate - I assume so we can bring the poor fuckers into the fray)


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 16, 2020)

Went shopping today at the cash and carry wine and beer shop , all staff wearing masks , same at the doctors when I popped  in to order a repeat prescription and at one of the supermarkets.First time I’ve seen masks here . Govt will debate/ announce a State of Emergency Wednesday , the first since the revolution . Flights in and out of Madeira have stopped , and despite an announcement about ceasing non essential travel , flights in and out of Portugal are still going . Border between Spain and Portugal closed aside from good services people working . Schools closed . First death announced today .


----------



## kropotkin (Mar 16, 2020)

sihhi said:


> The main issue is lack of reagant and material not enough capacity, when they had _7 weeks_. Where are those 5,000 a day?
> 
> The tests are being misdirected perhaps those in hospital don't need testing everyone with breathing difficulty should be assumed to be a case. It's others including asymptomatics outside that need testing and isolation.


Thanks for your specialist advice. Err.. So we will massively redirect ppe where it isn't needed?


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 16, 2020)

Sasaferrato said:


> grossly irresponsible to be out and about for the next few days.



Tell him to close the fucking schools then.


----------



## Brainaddict (Mar 16, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Flew back in from SE Asia yesterday.  So more chilled out there, people just going about their day to day.  Shelves full.  Its mental here, the wheels have come off big time. So much for British stoicism. Keep calm and carry on my arse.


Yeah, annoyed by the panic buying that has created shortages where there need be none, but at the same time this government fucked it in terms of messaging and that's what made people panic. They're still fucking it to be honest. Don't go out to the pub but send your kids to a school with a thousand kids in it? That is not going to inspire confidence in the government line.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 16, 2020)

Coronavirus: PM says everyone should avoid office, pubs and travelling
					

Other "drastic" steps include more working from home and whole households staying at home for 14 days if one person has symptoms.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




A main page for today's announcement. 

Also from that page: 


> Prof Whitty defended the UK's testing regime but said: "We do intend to continue to scale up testing."
> 
> He said tests only reveal whether or not people are currently sick - and that a test to show whether or not people had previously had the virus would be "transformational".
> 
> Public Health England (PHE) was "very rapidly" developing such a test, he added.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> Thanks for your specialist advice. Err.. So we will massively redirect ppe where it isn't needed?



I am going by Italy now where hospitals are either COVID and non-COVID.
They are still testing some non-hospitalised people. But their capacity is higher they've done 140,000 tests more than here.
As I understand it now tests here are done only for those in hospital for "pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) or flu like illness". So loads of contacts aren't being traced or isolated.


----------



## Sprocket. (Mar 16, 2020)

Let’s all make a concerted effort to stay on the right side of the turf people.
Any inconvenience that results in being topside is worth contemplating.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 16, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Tell him to close the fucking schools then.



I meant the person coming from SE Asia.

There are sound reasons for not closing the schools at the moment.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

Brainaddict said:


> They're still fucking it to be honest. Don't go out to the pub but send your kids to a school with a thousand kids in it? That is not going to inspire confidence in the government line.



It will unfortunately encourage those who do not have personal connection with a confirmed case to continue going to the pub.

I don't understand how people can be advised not to go to theatres, cinemas, pubs but without any fines for these events staying open. It's the madness of the market system in action.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 16, 2020)

Brainaddict said:


> Yeah, annoyed by the panic buying that has created shortages where there need be none, but at the same time this government fucked it in terms of messaging and that's what made people panic.



Err, the message from both the government & the supermarkets has been very clear - don't panic buy - it couldn't have been clearer.

Trouble is the media has been covering that message at the same time as showing footage or pictures of empty shelves, encouraging idiots to panic buy.


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 16, 2020)

Sasaferrato said:


> There are sound reasons for not closing the schools at the moment.



No, there aren’t. In time this will be seen as one of the most foolish mistakes we have made. Schools are breeding grounds for disease at the best of times. Millions of ‘unavoidable’ connections being made every day. It’s the perfect way to spread it and why a hell of a lot of other countries have made the move to close schools.

Add to that, I don’t like the government playing roulette with my life. Especially when it’s just a matter of time. I’m willing to bet these ‘sound reasons’ won’t count for shit in a few days time when, guess what, they’ll close the schools.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 16, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> I'm a senior tutor for med students--they were told last week to keep coming to hospital.i told them that was irresponsible and signed them all off early. They have now all been sent home by the university (except for final year students who they are keen to graduate - I assume so we can bring the poor fuckers into the fray)



You are in for a rough time I think. Prolonged barrier treatment is very hard to maintain.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 16, 2020)

Coronavirus: PM says everyone should avoid office, pubs and travelling
					

Other "drastic" steps include more working from home and whole households staying at home for 14 days if one person has symptoms.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## bimble (Mar 16, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Err, the message from both the government & the supermarkets has been very clear - don't panic buy - it couldn't have been clearer.
> 
> Trouble is the media has been covering that message at the same time as showing footage or pictures of empty shelves, encouraging idiots to panic buy.


but it’ll be even worse now, with the instruction for all of a household to avoid leaving the house for two weeks if one person is unwell. Of course people will run around trying to stock up on more food than they usually buy day to day. some of its irrational and selfish but some just a logical response to being told things like that.
Went to my two nearby towns today looking for paracetamol and a thermometer zero of either anywhere.


----------



## Dead Cat Bounce (Mar 16, 2020)

Got a friend working in Geneva and she's just messaged me to say that a state of emergency has been declared and all land borders will be closed from midnight.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 16, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> No, there aren’t. In time this will be seen as one of the most foolish mistakes we have made. Schools are breeding grounds for disease at the best of times. Millions of ‘unavoidable’ connections being made every day. It’s the perfect way to spread it and why a hell of a lot of other countries have made the move to close schools.
> 
> Add to that, I don’t like the government playing roulette with my life. Especially when it’s just a matter of time. I’m willing to bet these ‘sound reasons’ won’t count for shit in a few days time when, guess what, they’ll close the schools.



OK. Close the schools, you are then taking every nurse and doctor who has children out of the system. That will not slow the spread, but will kill non corona patients in greater numbers. Children need to be cared for, would you shut down childminders and nurseries as well?

I'm in the very high risk group, and I want to see an end to this too, but before it is over, hard choices are going to have to be made. I wouldn't realistically expect to have the use of a ventilator that is needed for someone half my age, with productive life ahead of them.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 16, 2020)

So what the EU’s strategy for this pandemic?


----------



## bimble (Mar 16, 2020)

Dead Cat Bounce said:


> Got a friend working in Geneva and she's just messaged me to say that a state of emergency has been declared and all land borders will be closed from midnight.


yep. my old parents live in swissland. All restaurants bars etc and shops apart from food and pharmacies closing tomorrow they say. Dont know if thats the whole country or just their bit. They are scared.


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 16, 2020)

Sasaferrato said:


> OK. Close the schools, you are then taking every nurse and doctor who has children out of the system. That will not slow the spread, but will kill non corona patients in greater numbers. Children need to be cared for, would you shut down childminders and nurseries as well?



Nobody says this is going to be easy. But closing down schools will slow the spread, massively. Way beyond the numbers involved in finding extra childcare for docs and nurses. Childminders and nurseries are nowhere near the numbers involved in schools, both in children and staff numbers.


----------



## clicker (Mar 16, 2020)

Speaking to a friend today and the nursery she uses now takes every kids temperature when they are dropped off.


----------



## Supine (Mar 16, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> So what the EU’s strategy for this pandemic?



do you really want to know or is this a prelude to some eu bashing?









						Coronavirus response
					

The Commission’s efforts to aid the fight against the pandemic. Find the latest actions and reliable statistics on the evolution of COVID-19 in the EU.




					ec.europa.eu


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 16, 2020)

Dead Cat Bounce said:


> Got a friend working in Geneva and she's just messaged me to say that a state of emergency has been declared and all land borders will be closed from midnight.



I am not surprised, they are now on around 272 cases per 1 million, second place to Italy in Europe, and well ahead of Spain on 202.  

SOURCE


----------



## RTWL (Mar 16, 2020)

55 uk deaths so far .






						ArcGIS Dashboards
					

ArcGIS Dashboards




					www.arcgis.com


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 16, 2020)

Supine said:


> do you really want to know or is this a prelude to some eu bashing?


Also known as 'reading the news' - yeah, it seems odd.


----------



## miss direct (Mar 16, 2020)

Getting serious in Turkey now. As of 11pm tonight, lots of things like cafes/cinemas/gyms closed. Bars already shut. Flights from 20 countries, including the UK, banned. Feel sick.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 16, 2020)

Supine said:


> do you really want to know or is this a prelude to some eu bashing?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Thanks for the link.

Just started watching the video by Ursula von der Leyen outlining her response to the pandemic and she’s already contradicting her calls for supporting countries within the EU as a priority- Italy has been snubbed in their request for additional respirators from any of their EU allies.

Looks like EU countries will be relying on themselves in their own national interests.


----------



## quimcunx (Mar 16, 2020)

This 'why now, not earlier or later, because we believe now is the right time' isn't very convincing when yesterday 7 days was the right time to self isolate and today 14 days is the right length of time. Or is this more of their behavioural science.


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 16, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> So what the EU’s strategy for this pandemic?



Lets hear the UK's one first shall we?

oh right.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 16, 2020)

Fucking hell Macron has just suspended all rent, gas, mortgage, electricity, water charges for the next 15 days alongside social gatherings and closing bars/events/restuarants etc. Sugaring the pill!


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 16, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> This article and the simulations are brilliant:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/



That explains it very well. Particularly the need for extensive social distancing.


----------



## Supine (Mar 16, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Thanks for the link.
> 
> Just started watching the video by Ursula von der Leyen outlining her response to the pandemic and she’s already contradicting her calls for supporting countries within the EU as a priority- Italy has been snubbed in their request for additional respirators from any of their EU allies.
> 
> Looks like EU countries will be relying on themselves in their own national interests.



I presume no country in europe has enough stocks of spare medical equipment to share them around...


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 16, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> This 'why now, not earlier or later, because we believe now is the right time' isn't very convincing when yesterday 7 days was the right time to self isolate and today 14 days is the right length of time. Or is this more of their behavioural science.



It's the best science. They said so today. They're listening to the best science.


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 16, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> That explains it very well. Particularly the need for extensive social distancing.


It's the best argument for social distancing I've seen so far. The only downside is they don't mention the deaths/lived saved. If there was a health capacity line that showed how long each measure allowed the curve to go above capacity, I'd say that'd be even better.

I'm surprised it's not more widely shared - some of the other articles get posted here mutliple times a day....


----------



## sihhi (Mar 16, 2020)

Here's something else I am unclear on from Chris Whitty's press conference.

The claim is Britain is 3 weeks behind Italy. However two weeks ago to the day, Italy had 50 deaths and had already closed schools at least in the north iirc.


----------



## Dead Cat Bounce (Mar 16, 2020)

bimble said:


> yep. my old parents live in swissland. All restaurants bars etc and shops apart from food and pharmacies closing tomorrow they say. Dont know if thats the whole country or just their bit. They are scared.



At federal level until the 19th of April according to her.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 16, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> This 'why now, not earlier or later, because we believe now is the right time' isn't very convincing when yesterday 7 days was the right time to self isolate and today 14 days is the right length of time. Or is this more of their behavioural science.



Still 7 days if you live on your own, 14 if there are others in the house.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 16, 2020)

Supine said:


> I presume no country in europe has enough stocks of spare medical equipment to share them around...
> [/
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## a_chap (Mar 16, 2020)

I happen to be working away from home today and staying overnight in deepest Bedfordshire.

The AirBnB I'm staying in won't let people eat takeaways or fisn'n'chips in the room so my only option for a hot meal is either a pub, indian or italian restaurant. I picked the italian expecting it to be deserted on a Monday night. 

It was packed.

I'm doomed...


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 16, 2020)

Artaxerxes said:


> Lets hear the UK's one first shall we?
> 
> oh right.



Social distancing, working from home if possible and good hygiene of regularly washing hands.

The same advice the CDC are recommending in the US to reduce infection.

Meanwhile the EU have offered the worst hit country in the EU  - Italy zero help with respirators and as 39thStep has mentioned - slapped them with a massive fine for outsourcing medical equipment outside the EU.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 16, 2020)

Germany seems to be doing relatively well, 7,000 odd cases but just 14 deaths. 

And South Korea also doing quite well, 8,000 cases and 75 deaths.


----------



## Supine (Mar 16, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Meanwhile the EU have offered the worst hit country in the EU  - Italy zero help with respirators



That simply isn't true. The EU have announced a pan European procurement drive to source essential medical equipment for all eu members. They have also offered to include the UK as a recipient of this even though we did brexit.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 16, 2020)




----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 16, 2020)

Supine said:


> That simply isn't true. The EU have announced a pan European procurement drive to source essential medical equipment for all eu members. They have also offered to include the UK as a recipient of this even though we did brexit.



So, they are finally waking-up?

Reported last Wednesday...



> The Italian government has accused the EU and its member states of being slow in coming to the country’s aid over the coronavirus epidemic.
> ---
> “Today, this means Italy; tomorrow, the need could be elsewhere. Italy has already asked to activate the European Union mechanism of civil protection for the supply of medical equipment for individual protection. But unfortunately not a single EU country responded to the commission’s call. Only China responded bilaterally. Certainly this is not a good sign of European solidarity.”
> 
> SOURCE


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 16, 2020)

little_legs said:


>




Why have you posted that, on this thread, when you have already posted it on the memes thread? 

In fact, WTF are you even doing posting on any of the serious threads, when you add nothing worthwhile to them, just worthless & generally pathetic one line posts of total nonsense?


----------



## little_legs (Mar 16, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Why have you posted that, on this thread, when you have already posted it on the memes thread?
> 
> In fact, WTF are you even doing posting on any of the serious threads, when you add nothing worthwhile to them, just worthless & generally pathetic one line posts of total nonsense?


It's pretty telling that you don't get that it's both comical and tragic.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 16, 2020)

Bars are shutting at 9 at night here . I'm going to make some serious lifestyle choices and start drinking at at tea time .


----------



## elbows (Mar 16, 2020)

Coronavirus: Trump says coronavirus crisis may last all summer
					

The president urges Americans to avoid gatherings, bars, restaurants, gyms and crowds.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




If I said Trump has had his wings clipped then that might be misleading, since he will still come out with all sorts of shit. But now he has no choice but to communicate the central public health messages, and watch what he says in terms of predicting short timescales.



> Asked how long the emergency will last, Mr Trump told reporters on Monday: "People are talking about July, August, something like that, so it could be right in that period of time where I say, it washes through."
> 
> He continued: "They think August, could be July, could be longer than that."
> 
> He said he was not considering a national curfew or lockdown, though added: "We may look at certain areas, certain hot spots as they call them."



And an interesting message that is a very different area of focus compared to the UKs approach so far:



> White House coronavirus response co-ordinator Dr Deborah Birx, who joined the president, issued an appeal directly to millennials, asking them to limit social contact.
> 
> "They are the core people that will stop this virus," she said. "We really want people to be separated."
> 
> ...



Millennials are probably being targeted in this message because other messages and factors have probably given them a different sense of risk than is wise. And more likely to have mild symptoms that might not alter their behaviour. And because there is data out there from social contact studies that suggests a particular age range where a lot more close contact socialising happens.


----------



## HAL9000 (Mar 16, 2020)

Coronavirus: 3D printers save hospital with valves
					

A hospital in Italy is using 3D-printed valves on its ventilators, following a shortage of parts.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> A 3D-printer company in Italy has designed and printed 100 life-saving respirator valves in 24 hours for a hospital that had run out of them.
> 
> The valve connects patients in intensive care to breathing machines.
> 
> ...



I doubt a complete ventilator can be made using 3d printing, but it might help create parts which are currently unvailable.


----------



## Cid (Mar 16, 2020)

Interesting article on the history of ventilator design... 

And this article has a more detailed breakdown of the basic components. It's actually off a revision site for NZ/Oz intensive care exams... The about page says 'It often relies on apocryphal sources, and delivers content which is occasionally more interesting than useful.', which is a good approach.


----------



## Kaka Tim (Mar 17, 2020)

Apparently the reason that the government is not ordering pubs etc to close is to protect the insurance industry. If the government orders the closure, businesses can claim. 
Typical Johnson cuntery that he will very likely have to row back on within days. 
Same with schools, they will be cloaing anyway due to staff shortages and infection fears. I'll be amazed if they are still open next week. 
We will end up with the same restrictions as everywhere else, byt piecemeal and completely un coordinated. Its going to be chaos.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 17, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> Apparently the reason that the government is not ordering pubs etc to close is to protect the insurance industry. If the government orders the closure, businesses can claim.
> Typical Johnson cuntery that he will very likely have to row back on within days.



Most policies are unlikely to cover them even if the government forced them to close.



> On Wednesday the government said it would declare coronavirus as a "notifiable disease", a classification required by many insurance policies.
> 
> But the Association of British Insurers says most business insurance policies are still "unlikely" to cover losses.
> 
> Many policies will only cover firms if the virus is found on-site.





> "An insurance policy is a contract and any cover is defined in the wording of that contract," a spokesman told the BBC.
> 
> They added that "it may be possible to buy consequential business interruption cover for notifiable diseases as an extension to a business insurance policy.
> 
> "Standard business insurance policies are designed and priced to cover standard risks, not those that are very unlikely, such as the effects of Covid-19."



SOURCE - BBC


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 17, 2020)

Promising.









						Coronavirus vaccine: first dose administered in clinical trial — Business Insider
					

A volunteer on Monday received an experimental coronavirus vaccine in the first clinical trial with people. The potential vaccine - developed by Moderna, a small Massachusetts biotech company - has had a speedy development: Moderna went from sequencing the virus' genetic information to shipping...




					apple.news


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 17, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Promising.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





> Clinical testing will take at least a year to 18 months to determine whether the vaccine is safe and effective, Anthony Fauci, the longtime head of the National Institutes of Health's infectious-disease unit, has repeatedly said.


----------



## chilango (Mar 17, 2020)

Be interesting to see the state of schools today.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 17, 2020)

Very good site showing current global impact of coronavirus.









						Coronavirus Dashboard
					

Live coronavirus dashboard tracker. See data, maps, social media trends, and learn about prevention measures.




					ncov2019.live


----------



## ATOMIC SUPLEX (Mar 17, 2020)

I have neutropenia, a low white blood cell count that makes it hard to fight infections etc. Should I ring 111 in advance of getting anything? Or just wait until I do? Don't want to bother an already overloaded service.


----------



## platinumsage (Mar 17, 2020)

Here's the Imperial College paper that government policy is based on. Well worth reading: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

It comes back in the winter if we try and return to normal in September:



We might be able to have brief periods of non-social distancing without overwhelming the critical care capacity:


----------



## cantsin (Mar 17, 2020)

ATOMIC SUPLEX said:


> I have neutropenia, a low white blood cell count that makes it hard to fight infections etc. Should I ring 111 in advance of getting anything? Or just wait until I do? Don't want to bother an already overloaded service.



Step dad has it ( due to chemo) - just being told to be super cautious on way to / from hospital ( he looks so f*cked everyone staying well clear anyway ) , and to self isolate (obvs) - cld be long old haul for you folk, solidarity ✊️


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 17, 2020)

London Bridge station at  8.45


----------



## brogdale (Mar 17, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> Here's the Imperial College paper that government policy is based on. Well worth reading: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
> 
> It comes back in the winter if we try and return to normal in September:
> 
> ...


That flat red line.  
Blood on their hands.


----------



## ATOMIC SUPLEX (Mar 17, 2020)

cantsin said:


> Step dad has it ( due to chemo) - just being told to be super cautious on way to / from hospital ( he looks so f*cked everyone staying well clear anyway ) , and to self isolate (obvs) - cld be long old haul for you folk, solidarity ✊️


Maybe I should call to see if I should self isolate now. . . . I currently work on my own, but it is in Soho.
I feel they would just tell me to stay home whatever I say. . . Which is going to be tricky for work.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 17, 2020)

brogdale said:


> That flat red line.
> Blood on their hands.



True - and the first of that type of graph I've seen that has actually drawn it to scale. The graphs normally show a huge hospital capacity that made the government 'herd immunity' policy look a lot more sensible than it was.


----------



## platinumsage (Mar 17, 2020)

.


----------



## brogdale (Mar 17, 2020)

two sheds said:


> True - and the first of that type of graph I've seen that has actually drawn it to scale. The graphs normally show a huge hospital capacity that made the government 'herd immunity' policy look a lot more sensible than it was.


Even that red line is garbage. There might be 4k ICU beds in the UK, but that number is pretty meaningless if they're all full. They were generally at 95%+ 'BC'.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 17, 2020)

Hong Kong is now quarantining all arrivals from overseas after 50 out of 57 cases were linked to foreigners arriving from Europe - local media hasn't failed to notice that Westerners aren't keen on wearing masks.


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Mar 17, 2020)

14 days self isolation now when entering Australia and New Zealand. The Kiwi's are threatening to deport people who arrive and do not comply








						Two 'completely irresponsible' tourists taken into custody by INZ after failing to comply with coronavirus rules
					

One of the pair is a woman who was removed from a Christchurch hostel this morning.




					www.tvnz.co.nz


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Mar 17, 2020)

That HK quarantine starts on 19th, right? 

So many laowai in HK without masks.


----------



## Cid (Mar 17, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> That HK quarantine starts on 19th, right?
> 
> So many laowai in HK without masks.


 
Where are you now? You know what measures are in place on the mainland? Bit worried for a friend who has ocd and is quite traditional. Suspect they haven’t been outside since this started... want to try to reassure them that they could go to their park as long as they maintain distancing.


----------



## Lucy Fur (Mar 17, 2020)

So I live in a very rural part of South West France, and until recently theres been very little impact. But then if a car drives through the village, that's news. Yesterday though, only the supermarket was open in the nearest major town of Condom (stop sniggering). All other shops, bars resturants were closed. I had to drive to another smaller village that did have a pharmacy open. Also we have to download a government form and have it on us if we get stopped by the Gendarme that explains what we are doing. Theres been a little panic buying, mainly pasta, but no real shortage of anything. Technically, I cant meet with friends, but I've got enough work in the allotment at the moment I wouldn't be anyway. Stay healthy you lot.


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (Mar 17, 2020)

In some countries, apparently, they are saying that those on blood thinners, anti-coagulants, are at risk. Our NHS guidelines don’t mention this. Does anyone know the facts here? And if there is a danger is it solely for warfarin or does it include the newer drugs, e.g. riveroxaban apixaban etc?


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Mar 17, 2020)

Had the kid with me until this morning. Yesterday we went for a walk cos we were bored been cooped up. Fucking loads of people working from home on the beach.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 17, 2020)

Lucy Fur said:


> So I live in a very rural part of South West France, and until recently theres been very little impact. But then if a car drives through the village, that's news. Yesterday though, only the supermarket was open in the nearest major town of Condom (stop sniggering). All other shops, bars resturants were closed. I had to drive to another smaller village that did have a pharmacy open. Also we have to download a government form and have it on us if we get stopped by the Gendarme that explains what we are doing. Theres been a little panic buying, mainly pasta, but no real shortage of anything. Technically, I cant meet with friends, but I've got enough work in the allotment at the moment I wouldn't be anyway. Stay healthy you lot.



One thing I was thinking about was how in France and Italy you have your Gendarmes and Carabineiri who are a common sight out in the countryside and on the roads. There's no equivalent of that here in the UK, so any policing of travel between towns and cities will have to be done by the same police that will have all sorts of other stuff to do in the towns and cities.

People on the police forums are pretty unimpressed with the proposed policing measurses. The question of how they are supposed to a) identify and b) detain sick people who are refusing to self-isolate seems to be a major concern, although as is traditional with the filth they're mainly worried about the implications for their own health rather than the health and welfare of the general public.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 17, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> You can catch it AND spread it before showing signs of illness.



That is the problem with many infectious illnesses.


----------



## Supine (Mar 17, 2020)

I’ve successfully managed to get my 78 year old mum to leave work in London and head home for the foreseeable.

She still plans on going to church on Sundays. Time for churches to stop services imho.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 17, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> That HK quarantine starts on 19th, right?
> 
> So many laowai in HK without masks.



Yep, starts Thursday - only places exempt are Macau and Taiwan.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 17, 2020)

ATOMIC SUPLEX said:


> I have neutropenia, a low white blood cell count that makes it hard to fight infections etc. Should I ring 111 in advance of getting anything? Or just wait until I do? Don't want to bother an already overloaded service.



Stay away from people as much as you can. That is the only advice that can be given.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 17, 2020)

Supine said:


> I’ve successfully managed to get my 78 year old mum to leave work in London and head home for the foreseeable.
> 
> She still plans on going to church on Sundays. Time for churches to stop services imho.



Yep. Mosques, Synagogues, Temples and houses of ill repute ditto.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 17, 2020)

brogdale said:


> Even that red line is garbage. There might be 4k ICU beds in the UK, but that number is pretty meaningless if they're all full. They were generally at 95%+ 'BC'.



Yep. There is also the problem that you cannot put the average nurse into ICU without close supervision, it is way beyond average nursing. I'm ICU trained, and were it not for the fact that I'm also at very high risk, I would volunteer. I've effectively got one lung and am 67.    I'm keeping well clear of people, because I know that if I catch this thing, chances of survival ain't good, nor do I expect to be using resources that a younger person needs. Italy have declared that over 80s will get what can be given, which won't be a lot. Expect that here. It will come to prioritising the younger folk, as it should be.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 17, 2020)

Some interesting things from Poland coming out regarding timelines:

This one showing the lag factor and incubation periods,  where Poland locked down, and where the number of official cases is expected to rise to:




In this, red is Italy, Blue is Germany, Yellow is Spain. Don't think we can take the UK curve seriously because they aren't testing.




Another projection here, expecting 1000 cases in Poland by Saturday.

 


Poland currently have 205 confirmed diagnosed and 5 deaths.


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 17, 2020)

HAL9000 said:


> View attachment 201975
> View attachment 201976
> 
> 
> ...




This is really brilliant. 






Anyone got a 3d printer I can borrow?


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 17, 2020)

Community testing here this week. Expecting a rise in detection rates. 

Croke Park is to serve as a drive thru testing centre.


----------



## andysays (Mar 17, 2020)

Supine said:


> I’ve successfully managed to get my 78 year old mum to leave work in London and head home for the foreseeable.
> 
> She still plans on going to church on Sundays. Time for churches to stop services imho.


There was a story in the news end of last week about how the Catholic church were considering suspending Mass from next Sunday.

And when my wife was at Mass last Sunday the priest announced that because of CV, going to Mass every week is no longer an obligation for Catholics.

(don't know if any of that is directly relevant to your Mum...)


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 17, 2020)

Does anyone have a good link to a credible source which will prove to my wife that yes, you are infectious with this virus before you show symptoms?  She seems to have picked up the idea from the media reporting that the only time you become infectious is when you’ve started showing symptoms, which is the exact opposite of what I’ve been hearing the past month.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 17, 2020)




----------



## Grace Johnson (Mar 17, 2020)

Supine said:


> I’ve successfully managed to get my 78 year old mum to leave work in London and head home for the foreseeable.
> 
> She still plans on going to church on Sundays. Time for churches to stop services imho.



They just announced all the churches are staying shut now


----------



## 2hats (Mar 17, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Does anyone have a good link to a credible source which will prove to my wife that yes, you are infectious with this virus before you show symptoms?  She seems to have picked up the idea from the media reporting that the only time you become infectious is when you’ve started showing symptoms, which is the exact opposite of what I’ve been hearing the past month.


Try page 2 of this WHO situation report where it states:


> we are learning that there are people who can shed COVID-19 virus 24-48 hours prior to symptom onset


Additionally, in this ECDC technical report they suggest 24 hours prior has been observed.


----------



## CosmikRoger (Mar 17, 2020)

There are so many Corona threads, I'm not sure this is the right one.
I live in Tarentaise,  ski country in the french alps. All the ski resorts closed this week-end and everywhere is deserted. 
My wife, who works for a french version of Wickes was told by Sms at midnight not to come to work until further notice and that she would be put on "chômage partiel " which means she will get 80 something % of the SMIC , the minimum wage, paid by the state.
I work in the building trade. This morning I went to work and my boss gave me a certificate to show any coppers who might stop me on the roads from midday today. He also gave me the choice to stay at work, we can't work on déplacement but there is work in the depot, to take any holiday that we have outstanding, or to opt for the chômage partiel.
I took the holidays option.
We don't have to pay any utilities bills or our mortgage until further notice either.
Apparently yesterday there was nothing on the shelves at our local superu yesterday,  but my friendly dealer who works there said that they had an overnight shift and all the shelves are full again.
All thats open are pharmacies, doctors, boulangerie, tabac presse, petrol stations and food shops and after seeing the aforementioned dealer, I don't think I need anything else.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 17, 2020)

Polish banks suspend repayments for 3 months:









						Banki zawieszą raty kredytów! Przepisy „niezwłocznie wdrożone”
					

„Wobec powstałego zagrożenia rozprzestrzenienia się pandemii koronawirusa COVID -19, która może nieść trudne dziś do przewidzenia skutki dla sytuacji finansowej kredytobiorców” banki zdecydowały po...




					www.fakt.pl


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 17, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Does anyone have a good link to a credible source which will prove to my wife that yes, you are infectious with this virus before you show symptoms?  She seems to have picked up the idea from the media reporting that the only time you become infectious is when you’ve started showing symptoms, which is the exact opposite of what I’ve been hearing the past month.


According to the World Health Org website you can catch it from someone without symptoms but the risk is low.








						Coronavirus disease (COVID-19)
					

Latest update 13 May 2021 -  WHO is continuously monitoring and responding to this pandemic. This Q&A will be updated as more is known about COVID-19, how it spreads and how it is affecting people worldwide. For more information, regularly check the WHO coronavirus pages...




					www.who.int
				



*Can CoVID-19 be caught from a person who has no symptoms?*
The main way the disease spreads is through respiratory droplets expelled by someone who is coughing. The risk of catching COVID-19 from someone with no symptoms at all is very low. However, many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill.  WHO is assessing ongoing research on the period of transmission of COVID-19 and will continue to share updated findings.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 17, 2020)

2hats said:


> Try page 2 of this WHO situation report where it states:
> 
> Additionally, in this ECDC technical report they suggest 24 hours prior has been observed.





Indeliblelink said:


> According to the World Health Org website you can catch it from someone without symptoms but the risk is low.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Perfect! Thanks very much for that both


----------



## treelover (Mar 17, 2020)

> EMERGENCY ACTION AGAINST DISMISSALS - 1pm Barkers Pool
> At 1pm today activists from Sheffield Needs a Pay Rise and others will meet at Barkers Pool on the city hall steps to leaflets workers in bars and restaurants to help them join unions and defend their rights against indefinite loss of pay resulting from the government’s ill-prepared, botched shut-down. Thousands of low-paid workers in Sheffield in the service sector will shortly be left without pay for weeks: let’s help them get organised.



good that this happened.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 17, 2020)

More stats out.  Poland have performed over 7000 tests so far.  The number of positive results as a percentage of tests performed is also rising with time.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 17, 2020)

Gotta say, the polish govt are doing really well of keeping everyone informed.  There are updates every few hours.


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 17, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> No, there aren’t. In time this will be seen as one of the most foolish mistakes we have made. Schools are breeding grounds for disease at the best of times. Millions of ‘unavoidable’ connections being made every day. It’s the perfect way to spread it and why a hell of a lot of other countries have made the move to close schools.
> 
> Add to that, I don’t like the government playing roulette with my life. Especially when it’s just a matter of time. I’m willing to bet these ‘sound reasons’ won’t count for shit in a few days time when, guess what, they’ll close the schools.



Just been told unofficially but from two separate reputable sources that school is closing on Friday.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 17, 2020)

42 km queue of trucks in the Chez Republic trying to get into Poland at the only border crossing still open! 

* Source BBC TV News.


----------



## Rosemary Jest (Mar 17, 2020)

So how many cases do they realistically reckon are in the UK? Read figures of up to 55k in the gruniad, and 3 confirmed cases in my area. 

Now I might be stupid, but if we aren't doing routine testing, and it's supposed to be extremely infectious, then surely 3 confirmed cases could be 3000, or 30,000 or fuck knows what. Spoke to my bro in the north east, he's feeling symptoms, I'm feeling symptoms, both healthy as fuck usually.

A proper shitshow from the govt, I must say.

When is someone going to come out and say, 'youve probably got it' rather than all this stiff upper lip, head in the sand bullshit instead of bandying round imaginary figures and platitudes?


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 17, 2020)

London’s museums and theatres have shut down.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 17, 2020)

Rosemary Jest said:


> So how many cases do they realistically reckon are in the UK? Read figures of up to 55k in the gruniad, and 3 confirmed cases in my area.



I tend to follow the advice of Prof Neil Ferguson, who is advising the UK government on modelling the spread of the virus.  His yardstick is that while we are in the exponential growth phase, there will be around 1000 currently infected people per death which has occurred. Right now we are at 56 deaths, so 56,000 infected people in Uk.

He explains the rationale for this yardstick measure in this video, from around 0:50


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 17, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Hong Kong is now quarantining all arrivals from overseas after 50 out of 57 cases were linked to foreigners arriving from Europe - local media hasn't failed to notice that Westerners aren't keen on wearing masks.
> 
> View attachment 202044




I have to admit that I’m struck by the irony of this pandemic being centred on rich white countries. 

Those who are accustomed to periodic outbreaks of highly infectious disease are probably better placed to take the necessary precautions.  Our relative complacency about contagious disease may prove to be a significant factor.





Apparently, in places where there is risk of Ebola, the day to day protective measures that have been in place for some time are substantially helping people to avoid C19.


----------



## editor (Mar 17, 2020)

This is a really interesting article:



> Being reinfected with COVID-19 is possible, said Sharon Lewin, director of the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity in Melbourne, but such an instance would be "surprising." It's possible that patients are not actually being reinfected, but that other factors—misdiagnosis, human error, or faulty tests—are giving that appearance.





> The mysterious double positives could simply be the result of human error. Hospitals have been testing for the presence of the virus using swab samples from a patient's nose, throat, and sometimes lungs. Swabs can yield different quantities of the virus depending on where the clinician swabs and how they do it, Lewin said. If the swab sample yields too little of the virus, it could lead to a false negative for a patient who is still infected.
> 
> Problems with the testing kits themselves can also lead to false negatives or false positives—like the batch of faulty kits the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention rushed out and then ordered back, a blunder that delayed testing in the U.S. by weeks and may have contributed to the virus's spread there.
> 
> The Wuhan man who died after he was discharged and readmitted had twice tested negative for the virus before being released, though a pre-discharge CT scan indicated a remaining infection in his lungs.











						Why are patients who recover from coronavirus testing positive again?
					

Scientists are trying to understand mysterious 'double positives.'




					www.fortune.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 17, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I have to admit that I’m struck by the irony of this pandemic being centred on rich white countries.



For now, wait until it takes off in Africa.


----------



## RTWL (Mar 17, 2020)

Coronavirus: Rolling coverage on the impact on Africa | Africanews
					

Cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Senegal, South Africa and Nigeria. African airlines have cancelled scheduled flights to China except for Ethiopian Airline




					www.africanews.com


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 17, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> For now, wait until it takes off in Africa.




Yes. I should have said. I realise that this is just the beginning and it’s going to be very very bad. 

I’m actually afraid to think of how awful it’s going to be for refugees, homeless people, those in countries with scanty healthcare.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 17, 2020)

Spain reporting almost 500 deaths in a single day. pretty bad.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 17, 2020)

editor said:


> This is a really interesting article:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The chief scientific adviser said yesterday that it's highly unlikely to get reinfected in the short to medium term at least, although there can always exceptions to the rule, as demonstrated with chicken pox, but these will be tiny numbers.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 17, 2020)

Flavour said:


> Spain reporting almost 500 deaths in a single day. pretty bad.



Do you have a link for that?

This site shows a total of 510, up 168 today.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 17, 2020)

I wonder how many of you are able to work from home (WFH)? Assuming there are not other issues? I am beginning 3 days a week at home to see how it might work.


----------



## HAL9000 (Mar 17, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> Here's the Imperial College paper that government policy is based on. Well worth reading: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
> 
> It comes back in the winter if we try and return to normal in September:
> 
> ...




So what's the summary?


First graph.   Even if we have a really sucessfully quarantine/isolation strategey, because we cannot maintain it forever, we endup with an even bigger epidemic.  So say if we stop quarantine/isolation at the beginning of september, country ends up with an even bigger problem.

"The more successful a strategy is at temporary suppression, the larger the later epidemic is predicted to be in the absence of vaccination, due to lesser build-up of herd immunity"​

Second graph, proposed solution, switch quarantine/isolation on and off depending on ICU demand. Once the number ICU cases reaches a threshold, switch quarantine/isolation on.   Allow ICU cases to fall, once ICU cases are below a low level trigger, switch quarantine/isolation off.
Is this correct?


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I wonder how many of you are able to work from home (WFH)? Assuming there are not other issues? I am beginning 3 days a week at home to see how it might work.


I can. There's ongoing battle plans being drawn up by college involving distance teaching training for tutors, and I had to draw up a list of my most vulnerable learners today with a view to regular contact during any upcoming shutdown. Plenty of planning for next year to do, too.


----------



## a_chap (Mar 17, 2020)

Audax UK - the long-distance cycling club - has just announced it's cancelling all long-distance events including DIY rides.

Shit just got real, people


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 17, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Do you have a link for that?
> 
> This site shows a total of 510, up 168 today.



You are correct, he's talking rubbish. Exactly the sort of rubbish we don't need right now. Things are bad enough, and about to get a whole lot worse.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 17, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Do you have a link for that?
> 
> This site shows a total of 510, up 168 today.



apologies, it was a mis-reading of a headline which made it seem as if it were the deaths for a single day, when in fact it was the total deaths so far. retracted. planetgeli  if you've been following these threads you'll know i'm hardly a panic-sower


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 17, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> One thing I was thinking about was how in France and Italy you have your Gendarmes and Carabineiri who are a common sight out in the countryside and on the roads. There's no equivalent of that here in the UK, so any policing of travel between towns and cities will have to be done by the same police that will have all sorts of other stuff to do in the towns and cities.
> 
> People on the police forums are pretty unimpressed with the proposed policing measurses. The question of how they are supposed to a) identify and b) detain sick people who are refusing to self-isolate seems to be a major concern, although as is traditional with the filth they're mainly worried about the implications for their own health rather than the health and welfare of the general public.


Surely one of the issues in contingency planning is how to best maintain the staffing levels in emergency and essential services ?


----------



## zahir (Mar 17, 2020)

Lord Camomile said:


> Mate at work has booked a flight home to Greece for Wednesday, looking to get in before the borders close.



Borders now closed to non-EU citizens. It’s not clear whether this includes the British.









						Greece closes border to non-EU citizens. For Greeks, EU-citizens, travelers from UK… - Keep Talking Greece
					

Greece closes its borders to non-EU citizens as of 6:00 a.m. on Wednesday, March 18, 2020, head of C




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## bimble (Mar 17, 2020)

My work is to do with getting and reporting back on grants for charities & NGOs, mainly education stuff but all sorts of things here and in other countries, much of it working to help people at the bottom of the pile in various ways. Inbox is now full of people saying they are having to stop everything, their programs have ground to a halt in the middle or have to be cancelled or indefinitely postponed. Looked at all together its deeply depressing, so much good important stuff stopping just like that.


----------



## Gramsci (Mar 17, 2020)

Posted this on Lock down thread. My latest from the City of London.


The City of London is already locking itself down without Boris telling them. Im no fan of the City and it means Im losing work but a lot of big City firms are leaving. They are thinking ahead. Acting responsibly for those who work there. I assume they are still being paid. These are people in high paid jobs who could do some work at home. Even if it means less work for a while.

I went to a City legal firm today to pick up a package. They are packing up all the computers and files to send out to peoples homes to work from home.

The only person there was the office manager.We had a nice chat and she gave me some antispectic wipes. Which in London are golddust.

As I said her and me are probably pretty safe from the virus in the City as hardly anyone in City compared to normal. She said the tube/ train was lot less people than normal.

The City was empty. Looking up at the big glass windowed offices and no one there.

Only postroom staff and security guards.

Looks like security gaurds will be ok job wise.

Looking like I may be in deep shit soon.

But as big business is doing a lock down before being ordered to by government this might help stop virus spreading .

Which may be good for the country as a whole. If not for the low paid who keep London going.

I will be working tomorrow anything new from London will let you know.

As West End of London and City of London did have large amount of people coming in from all over South East area too work in central London less people commuting will slow down spread of virus.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 17, 2020)

The Portuguese Govt have announced ( according to google translate and my poor Portuguese ) a ‘state of calamity ‘ in Ovar a small municipal area in the North that borders Spain .  30 cases and 400 contacts . What got me was the photo of the area being shutdown


----------



## Gramsci (Mar 17, 2020)

I had a argument today with security guard. Picking up letter from a big building in the City of London.

One signs out letters on a touch screen. So secuity guard puts the machine in front of me. I say Im not signing on a touch screen. Said Ive stopped getting people to sign with finger on my machine. He says I have to, I refuse. He gets the security manager. I say virus is going around Im just puttiing peoples names on machine not getting them to sign with finger.

The lady whose letter it is comes down to loading bay to add something else to package. She understands what Im going on about.

Tells security guard manager to let me have package without signing with my finger on touch screen. She tells him that Royal Mail have stopped this.

Security manager says he understands but its not part of there "procedures" yet.

I walk off saying its just commonsense.


----------



## vanya (Mar 17, 2020)

*Dither and Delay*






We - the left - aren't criticising Boris Johnson because we want him to fail, but because we want him _to succeed_. Unfortunately, the Prime Minister is failing and appears determined to make matters worse than they need to be. And so while it is welcome he has acceded to demands for daily press briefings following a welter of criticism, the first that took place today was a pretty shoddy affair.

There was his customary shabbiness. Not just the contrived pulled-through-a-hedge-backwards look, but the shiftiness and inability to answer straight questions with a straight answer. When asked about workers and what they're supposed to do during the period of Coronavirus-enforced isolation, Johnson said his government had announced an uplift in the living wage (_sic_) and "we hope the people listening to this will take away the message that they will be protected." Totally reassuring. Asked about respirators he side-stepped the issue, and he talked about restrictions but only offered advice and suggestions. Shambolic.

And about those workers. His non-answer meant nothing. There are ideas floating around in the right wing ether about enhanced sick pay and a temporary basic income, but all on offer today were platitudes and a recommendation one should work from home. Fine for those who can, but those who can't? Consider, for instance, the case of Richard Branson. While he rushed to the government begging for a £7.5bn bail out for the airline industry, his business saw it fir to put their workers on eight weeks of unpaid leave while he sits the crisis out snug on his private island. And where Branson leads, others are sure to follow. How are these workers and others looking at hours and wages drying up going to make ends meet? Johnson might have ignored this today, but he can't ignore it forever.

Also appalling was his _recommendation_ that people avoid bars, cinemas, pubs, and theatres. Appalling, because he's basically consigned thousands of businesses to oblivion. As many have pointed out, business insurance only kicks in if the government shuts them down. By warding people away, many will be forced to voluntarily shutter to save money and not a few face going under, because their closure does not meet the terms of their insurance policies. Yes, support was promised to help small businesses in last week's budget, but how long do they have to wait, are they being contacted now about the help available, and how far back does it cover? Sadly, another of Johnson's oversights for which others will pay.

Yes, Johnson says his approach is guided by the science, which, in the UK's case, has significant holes. Even if the assumptions and modelling were correct, his job is tor provide the political response and the political leadership, to develop a biopolitics and necropolitics of Coronavirus. As Johnson's initial efforts show, this comes laden with all sorts of assumptions. His ruling class common sense is _laissez-faire_ governance, of government presiding over the rules of the game (the Tories initially devised) and intervening only where and when it's deemed necessary to formulate this regulation, or address that upset in the equilibria. And this was how his time in office was supposed to be. Throw money at infrastructure projects, stoke the culture wars a bit, and get on negotiating a glorious Brexit deal. This prospectus has been destroyed by COVID-19. With everything seizing up, entire sectors of the economy staring down the barrel of ruin, and millions facing destitution on top of sickness, Johnson has to break with the governing habits that have served his class well these last 40 years. The logic of social necessity will compel him, as it has done every other European government, but at what cost while he dithers and delays?


----------



## treelover (Mar 17, 2020)

Very worried about power cuts, which i think are inevitable, i had one a month ago, out of the blue, fell over, couldn't find my phone or my torch, it wasn't off long, but being ill i felt very disoriented, etc, and anxious, I rang nat grid, they sent me some torches, but i don't think they do much more, buying a battery lamp asap.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 17, 2020)

treelover said:


> Very worried about power cuts, which i think are inevitable, i had one a month ago, out of the blue, fell over, couldn't find my phone or my torch, it wasn't off long, but being ill i felt very disoriented, etc, and anxious, I rang nat grid, they sent me some torches, but i don't think they do much more, buying a battery lamp asap.


I can relate to that, in the floods my electric popped, I only had my phone to use as a torch - my mistake. Now I have a head torch, my phone, a packet of candles, a candle stick, and a lighter. Not quite perfect preparation but rather better than before.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 17, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Did you see the bit where I said "well they would say that wouldn't they"


Sorry it was a bit late. I was tired and emotional.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 17, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> People won't riot in a pandemic til they're hungry.


Two days food supplies in London. Just in time hits home.


----------



## existentialist (Mar 17, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> So what the EU’s strategy for this pandemic?


If only there were some way of finding out...


----------



## TopCat (Mar 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I can relate to that, in the floods my electric popped, I only had my phone to use as a torch - my mistake. Now I have a head torch, my phone, a packet of candles, a candle stick, and a lighter. Not quite perfect preparation but rather better than before.


Really decent torches available now LED huge power.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 17, 2020)

Good point I may make sure all my rechargeable batteries are charged up.


----------



## bimble (Mar 17, 2020)

Why are people saying they think there’ll be power cuts? Is this just generic zombie apocalypse stuff now ?


----------



## existentialist (Mar 17, 2020)

bimble said:


> Why are people saying they think there’ll be power cuts? Is this just generic zombie apocalypse stuff now ?


Not necessarily. Power generation is as vulnerable to manpower shortages as anything else, and they're often very vulnerable - these days, most power stations are highly automated, which means that such people as are there are not exactly redundant: lose 20% of your workforce and you might be looking at a shutdown.

A power station with which I am not entirely unacquainted has, for the last two weeks, had very stringent contact rules (no outsiders onsite, for a start), and I suspect they've probably got their staff on hair-trigger self-isolation options, to avoid the risk of significant sickness.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 17, 2020)

bimble said:


> Why are people saying they think there’ll be power cuts? Is this just generic zombie apocalypse stuff now ?



There isn't going to be power cuts, some people are just going mental, and need to get a grip.

It's the sort of thing you expect on facetwatter, but not on urban.


----------



## bimble (Mar 17, 2020)

Well if it comes to that a torch won’t save me. What about Netflix? Got candles tho.


----------



## treelover (Mar 17, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> There isn't going to be power cuts, some people are just going mental, and need to get a grip.
> 
> It's the sort of thing you expect on facetwatter, but not on urban.



No it isn't, it is a clear possibility, there have been increasing amount of short term PC's already the laste few years


----------



## A380 (Mar 17, 2020)

existentialist said:


> Not necessarily. Power generation is as vulnerable to manpower shortages as anything else, and they're often very vulnerable - these days, most power stations are highly automated, which means that such people as are there are not exactly redundant: lose 20% of your workforce and you might be looking at a shutdown.
> 
> A power station with which I am not entirely unacquainted has, for the last two weeks, had very stringent contact rules (no outsiders onsite, for a start), and I suspect they've probably got their staff on hair-trigger self-isolation options, to avoid the risk of significant sickness.


Doubt it, we have massive electricity margins at the moment. The likelihood is that demand will drop so these margins will get bigger. If you get bored you can watch it in real time here:  G. B. National Grid status


----------



## Fez909 (Mar 17, 2020)

treelover said:


> No it isn't, it is a clear possibility, there have been increasing amount of short term PC's already the laste few years


Which were completely unrelated to coronavirus.

Please take the power cut talk to another thread


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 17, 2020)

treelover said:


> No it isn't, it is a clear possibility, there have been increasing amount of short term PC's already the laste few years



Can you try again, in English?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 17, 2020)

Bet there may be a shortage of Zoom, if I had a penny for every time I have heard of people planning to use Zoom to keep in touch in the last few days ..


----------



## treelover (Mar 17, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> Which were completely unrelated to coronavirus.
> 
> Please take the power cut talk to another thread



i mean the system is already under pressure, didn't you see existentialists post


----------



## weltweit (Mar 17, 2020)

If you sort this list by deaths, rather than cases, it looks a little different 








						Coronavirus Update (Live): 123,838,954 Cases and 2,727,153 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				




Britain is 10th by cases, 8th by deaths.


----------



## weepiper (Mar 17, 2020)

Gramsci said:


> I had a argument today with security guard. Picking up letter from a big building in the City of London.
> 
> One signs out letters on a touch screen. So secuity guard puts the machine in front of me. I say Im not signing on a touch screen. Said Ive stopped getting people to sign with finger on my machine. He says I have to, I refuse. He gets the security manager. I say virus is going around Im just puttiing peoples names on machine not getting them to sign with finger.
> 
> ...


We had exactly the same thing in Superdrug today. Mr W ordered some stuff as a collect-in-store to minimise social contact, the wee checkout lassie wanted him to sign her little touch screen thing, he said can you just do a squiggle for me because I don't want to touch that, official advice is to avoid contact where possible, and she said you have to sign it, there's cameras (I assume in fear of her job) so I appealed to her supervisor, who got stroppy and said 'he has to sign for his parcel'. In the end I said I would sign for it, literally did a dot on the touchscreen with a fingernail and walked out. They're going to find they're going to have to change that policy pretty quick smart.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 17, 2020)

Gramsci said:


> I had a argument today with security guard. Picking up letter from a big building in the City of London.
> 
> One signs out letters on a touch screen. So secuity guard puts the machine in front of me. I say Im not signing on a touch screen. Said Ive stopped getting people to sign with finger on my machine. He says I have to, I refuse. He gets the security manager. I say virus is going around Im just puttiing peoples names on machine not getting them to sign with finger.
> 
> ...



Fks sake mate - you deliver for DHL?

Not sure wtf is going on with a Amazon, routes are massive yet tomorrow the boss says he has 8 days off to any drivers who want a day off 

Delivered to a few people who were self quarantining today - one had a poster on their door saying knock then leave parcel on doorstep for them to collect.

Roads noticeably quieter and majority of people home.


----------



## gaijingirl (Mar 17, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Just been told unofficially but from two separate reputable sources that school is closing on Friday.



Your school or all schools?


----------



## DexterTCN (Mar 17, 2020)

Look out the window for people.


----------



## Gramsci (Mar 17, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Fks sake mate - you deliver for DHL?
> 
> Not sure wtf is going on with a Amazon, routes are massive yet tomorrow the boss says he has 8 days off to any drivers who want a day off
> 
> ...



Not DHL 

Small firm that does City and West End.

A lot of people used to have Amazon parcels delivered direct to there office in City. That is drying up now. 

But Ive heard more people using online to buy food and have stuff delivered. So for that side of delivery market outside central London work may increase.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 17, 2020)

Anyone know what the situation is with flights out the U.K.?  Heard Boris has put a 30 day ban in effect but can’t find anything in the news.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 17, 2020)

Germany seems to be doing very well, 9,352 recorded cases but just 24 deaths. 

I wonder if they are doing anything different?


----------



## shifting gears (Mar 17, 2020)

No “ban”.

Advice is no “non-essential foreign travel” for 30 days


----------



## elbows (Mar 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Germany seems to be doing very well, 9,352 recorded cases but just 24 deaths.
> 
> I wonder if they are doing anything different?



There will be some differences, but at this stage its not possible to say what difference its really making, it could just be that they are ~3 days behind the UK (in terms of number of deaths at least).


----------



## treelover (Mar 17, 2020)

> I was in Morrisons in Hillsborough. Shelves empty. I bought the last bag of potatoes. Check out lady said that they’d had 2 palettes of toilet rolls delivered and that people were like animals fighting over a gazelle. All taken in moments.



more alarming events, especially if you are in the vunerable groups, the supermarkets need to take this more seriously

I am ringing the Business/Shadow Secretaries office tomorow, the loose network of disabled and sick people i helped to set up are now really worried.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 17, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Just been told unofficially but from two separate reputable sources that school is closing on Friday.



Other teachers and school staff are being told as much officially.


----------



## treelover (Mar 17, 2020)

Tesco online this evening, crazy


----------



## treelover (Mar 17, 2020)

> We're in self isolation as of now (GP advise as DH has a minor cough) and couldn't get a full food shop in due to empty shelves. No meat, bread, pasta, rice, flour, potatoes, milk, beans or eggs. I've got two kids and we're seriously having to think about rationing the food we do have. No home delivery slots until April either. The food crisis is serious for those having to stay home, and we're young healthy people.



it is serious now and not being alarmist


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 17, 2020)

Oops, wrong thread.


----------



## DexterTCN (Mar 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Germany seems to be doing very well, 9,352 recorded cases but just 24 deaths.
> 
> I wonder if they are doing anything different?


Closing borders, £500 a week benefit paymemts for eeryone inckudinf those not going to work.


----------



## treelover (Mar 17, 2020)

> I've just been told the following:
> 
> The NHS will contact you from Monday 23 March 2020 if you are at particularly high risk of getting seriously ill with coronavirus. You'll be given specific advice about what to do.
> 
> ...



Significant


----------



## scifisam (Mar 17, 2020)

DexterTCN said:


> Closing borders, £500 a week benefit paymemts for eeryone inckudinf those not going to work.



£500pw?


----------



## DexterTCN (Mar 17, 2020)

scifisam said:


> £500pw?


Standard, apparently.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 17, 2020)

scifisam said:


> £500pw?



Yeah, let’s all go to Germany as migrants!


----------



## lizzieloo (Mar 17, 2020)

Rosemary Jest said:


> So how many cases do they realistically reckon are in the UK? Read figures of up to 55k in the gruniad, and 3 confirmed cases in my area.
> 
> Now I might be stupid, but if we aren't doing routine testing, and it's supposed to be extremely infectious, then surely 3 confirmed cases could be 3000, or 30,000 or fuck knows what. Spoke to my bro in the north east, he's feeling symptoms, I'm feeling symptoms, both healthy as fuck usually.
> 
> ...



Chief Scientific Advisor to the Government at the Select Committee today said you can estimate 1000 cases for every death, currently that's 69000 people with coronavirus.

By the way that was very interesting to watch, on iplayer most of today's meeting isn't there, the program is listed but it comes in about half way through. I found it on youtube.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 17, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Yeah, let’s all go to Germany as migrants!



I'm fluent in German. _goes to book flights_


----------



## editor (Mar 17, 2020)

Slightly encouraging report from a GP who contracted the virus. It's still sounds bloody awful though. 









						As a GP who's overcome coronavirus, here's what I want you to know
					

Dr Clare Gerada




					www.pulsetoday.co.uk


----------



## A380 (Mar 17, 2020)

Here’s the New Bill:






						[Withdrawn] [Withdrawn] What the Coronavirus Bill will do
					






					www.gov.uk


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 18, 2020)

gaijingirl said:


> Your school or all schools?



Mine and all in my county.


----------



## Rosemary Jest (Mar 18, 2020)

lizzieloo said:


> Chief Scientific Advisor to the Government at the Select Committee today said you can estimate 1000 cases for every death, currently that's 69000 people with coronavirus.
> 
> By the way that was very interesting to watch, on iplayer most of today's meeting isn't there, the program is listed but it comes in about half way through. I found it on youtube.



Thanks. It all still seems such a guess though, doesn't it? Albeit an educated one.

Also, and forgive me for being thick here again, but if the virus was first identified in mid November and only officially reported in mid February, won't there be a lot more cases? A three month gap where no one was aware apart from a few doctors in China? Sorry, don't want to sound like a conspiraloon, but it just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.


----------



## T & P (Mar 18, 2020)

Now I'm starting to suspect this could be serious: Eastenders suspended...









						Coronavirus: EastEnders, Casualty, Doctors and Holby City suspend filming
					

Production of BBC dramas Casualty, Doctors and Holby City is also on hold until further notice.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## little_legs (Mar 18, 2020)

Cleaning things is helpful more than ever.









						Coronavirus can persist in air for hours and on surfaces for days: study
					

The highly contagious novel coronavirus that has exploded into a global pandemic can remain viable and infectious in droplets in the air for hours and on surfaces up to days, according to a new study that should offer guidance to help people avoid contracting the respiratory...




					www.reuters.com
				





> The tests show that when the virus is carried by the droplets released when someone coughs or sneezes, it remains viable, or able to still infect people, in aerosols for at least three hours.
> 
> On plastic and stainless steel, viable virus could be detected after three days. On cardboard, the virus was not viable after 24 hours. On copper, it took 4 hours for the virus to become inactivated.


----------



## lizzieloo (Mar 18, 2020)

T & P said:


> Now I'm starting to suspect this could be serious: Eastenders suspended...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Everything was fine in Walford last night, probably the only pub in London fully doing St Patrick's Day


----------



## 2hats (Mar 18, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Cleaning things is helpful more than ever.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


More detail...









						New coronavirus stable for hours on surfaces
					

SARS-CoV-2 stability similar to original SARS virus.




					www.nih.gov
				




Which comes from this paper DOI: 10.1056/NEJMc2004973 (2020).


----------



## T & P (Mar 18, 2020)

lizzieloo said:


> Everything was fine in Walford last night, probably the only pub in London fully doing St Patrick's Day


I don't watch Eastenders but am curious to know this. Given that they pride themselves in incorporating current events into their storylines despite the episodes being filmed weeks in advance, has the issue of Coronavirus featured yet?


----------



## lizzieloo (Mar 18, 2020)

T & P said:


> I don't watch Eastenders but am curious to know this. Given that they pride themselves in incorporating current events into their storylines despite the episodes being filmed weeks in advance, has the issue of Coronavirus featured yet?



No, usually they'll film Kath and Ian (or some other cockernee pair) having a conversation about the latest thing then they slip it in (fnar). But with this they can't, just mentioning it won't work, they'd all have to go into isolation, not go to work, the pubs would be empty, blah blah blah...

They're gonna have to ignore it, we can all watch and get teary eyed about the good old days and how great life is in Albert Square.


----------



## T & P (Mar 18, 2020)

lizzieloo said:


> No, usually they'll film Kath and Ian (or some other cockernee pair) having a conversation about the latest thing then they slip it in (fnar). But with this they can't, just mentioning it won't work, they'd all have to go into isolation, not go to work, the pubs would be empty, blah blah blah...
> 
> They're gonna have to ignore it, we can all watch and get teary eyed about the good old days and how great life is in Albert Square.


Probably for the fist time ever, the mortality rate in Eastenders will soon be lower than in real life


----------



## platinumsage (Mar 18, 2020)

2hats said:


> More detail...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I believe there has yet to be a confirmed case of transmission via a surface? It really should be person-to-person contact that is the focus - droplets from the mouth that land and nearby people's faces, whether through coughing, sneezing, laughing or talking.


----------



## Looby (Mar 18, 2020)

lizzieloo said:


> No, usually they'll film Kath and Ian (or some other cockernee pair) having a conversation about the latest thing then they slip it in (fnar). But with this they can't, just mentioning it won't work, they'd all have to go into isolation, not go to work, the pubs would be empty, blah blah blah...
> 
> They're gonna have to ignore it, we can all watch and get teary eyed about the good old days and how great life is in Albert Square.


They did this on Corrie last night, gaslighting Jeff was talking about hand washing for 20 seconds.


----------



## 2hats (Mar 18, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> I believe there has yet to be a confirmed case of transmission via a surface? It really should be person-to-person contact that is the focus - droplets from the mouth that land and nearby people's faces, whether through coughing, sneezing, laughing or talking.


If you don't look you won't find. It's seen with all viruses to some greater or lesser degree. One should assume the possibility and take precautions, act and clean accordingly.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 18, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> I believe there has yet to be a confirmed case of transmission via a surface?
> ..


How would one ascertain surface transmission? 

This is why we are instructed to wash our hands.


----------



## wayward bob (Mar 18, 2020)

little_legs said:


> "On copper, it took 4 hours for the virus to become inactivated"


<checks stash>
<knits suit of armour>


----------



## platinumsage (Mar 18, 2020)

weltweit said:


> How would one ascertain surface transmission?
> 
> This is why we are instructed to wash our hands.



By contact tracing, e.g. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30528-6/fulltext

If there's no close contact then you trace routes and look at surfaces.

The CDC page makes it clear person-to-person is the main route, whilst acknowledging a possibly of surface transmission.

It just seems unfortunate that people are washing their hands raw but continuing to talk face-to-face to people without standing more than 6 feet away.


----------



## ska invita (Mar 18, 2020)

[/QUOTE]


cupid_stunt said:


>


Was a smirking sports lawyer on the news yesterday rubbing his hands at all the issues arising from shutting down the football league. With each new problem he mentioned his eyes got wider....he could barely believe his luck.


----------



## TopCat (Mar 18, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Can you try again, in English?


Dont be silly


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 18, 2020)

EUROVISION CANCELLED


----------



## Fedayn (Mar 18, 2020)

__





						Coronavirus: All schools, nurseries to close at end of week
					

Nicola Sturgeon confirmed they have now lost too many staff to continue as normal.




					news.stv.tv
				




*Schools and nurseries across Scotland are to close at the end of this week, the First Minister has said.*
Nicola Sturgeon confirmed they have now lost too many staff to continue as normal and said she can’t promise they won’t reopen until after the summer holidays.


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 18, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> No, there aren’t. In time this will be seen as one of the most foolish mistakes we have made. Schools are breeding grounds for disease at the best of times. Millions of ‘unavoidable’ connections being made every day. It’s the perfect way to spread it and why a hell of a lot of other countries have made the move to close schools.
> 
> Add to that, I don’t like the government playing roulette with my life. Especially when it’s just a matter of time. I’m willing to bet these ‘sound reasons’ won’t count for shit in a few days time when, guess what, they’ll close the schools.



Hate to say I told you so.


----------



## platinumsage (Mar 18, 2020)

99% of deaths in Italy have been people with pre-exisiting conditions:


----------



## weltweit (Mar 18, 2020)

Education secretary to make announcement at 5pm in the commons.


----------



## treelover (Mar 18, 2020)

> DECEMBER 2016: CMO Sally Davies
> 
> “We’ve just had in the UK a 3-day exercise on flu, on a pandemic that killed a lot of people..It became clear that we could not cope with the excess bodies”.
> 
> ...



very revealing, this Govt should be finished after it is all over.


----------



## Cid (Mar 18, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> 99% of deaths in Italy have been people with per-exisiting conditions:
> 
> View attachment 202175




There are about 26 million in the uk with at least one long term condition.









						Essential facts, stats and quotes relating to long-term conditions - PSNC Website
					

This page contains facts, stats and quotes that LPC members may find useful when writing business cases or developing resources to support the commissioning of certain services. This page is ‘work in progress’ and will continue to be updated with new facts, stats and quotes. Facts, stats and...




					psnc.org.uk


----------



## treelover (Mar 18, 2020)

a song for our times.


----------



## hegley (Mar 18, 2020)

Pretty big jump in figures today


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Mar 18, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Education secretary to make announcement at 5pm in the commons.



Wales & Scotland to close all schools come Friday - looking highly likely UK will follow suit.


----------



## treelover (Mar 18, 2020)

> Cost Price Toilet Roll – Sealed Pack Of 4 For Collection Only
> 
> 
> 
> ...



local venue bulk buying toilet paper, then selling cost price, wonderful.


----------



## T & P (Mar 18, 2020)

Spain is to close all hotels next week. Not a moment too soon, given the disgraceful antics by some tourists that have surfaced on the net...


----------



## Numbers (Mar 18, 2020)

On the BBC site



> *First UK prisoner tests positive*
> The first prisoner to be diagnosed with coronavirus in the UK has been confirmed.
> The BBC's home affairs correspondent Danny Shaw says the prisoner is serving their sentence at HMP Manchester and is currently in hospital.
> He adds that no other prison staff or prisoners have tested positive, but 13 prisoners and four members of staff have been put into isolation as a precaution.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 18, 2020)

Mr.Bishie said:


> Wales & Scotland to close all schools come Friday - looking highly likely UK will follow suit.



Speaking to a couple of teachers and they reckon a lot of schools have got to the point where there just isn't enough staff available as they're isolating.  Whether the government want to close schools or not its going to happen.


----------



## treelover (Mar 18, 2020)

Carer just told me no potatoes in the big tescos! 

and they used to show films of empty shelves in the Soviet Union.


----------



## treelover (Mar 18, 2020)

I think this deserves its own thread, i know a fair few medical sources, including an ex inf diseases nurse who basically helps sick people with advice, medics and others, and i am hearing that patients over 80 are not being allowed to go into hospital, while in doncaster, those who have a co-morbity will not be allocated an ICU ventilator

this needs confirming of course, i do hope it is wrong.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 18, 2020)

Awaiting this afternoon for the Portuguese parliament to announce state of emergency . Just spoke to a Portuguese bar owner who said that perhaps restaurants and bars will be closed tomorrow , supermarkets will remain open . Apparently the constitution ( which was passed with one eye on preventing a return to fascism ) is extremely complicated and is a minefield for a state of emergency . 
Ive been in the bar since lunch at 2 , if it’s announced the bars are closing I’m doing the full shift till 9 . 😂


----------



## prunus (Mar 18, 2020)

treelover said:


> I think this deserves its own thread, <snip>
> 
> this needs confirming of course, i do hope it is wrong.



Perhaps do the confirming before posting the alarming news that is likely to cause possibly unnecessary mental distress to quite a lot of vulnerable people?


----------



## ruffneck23 (Mar 18, 2020)

Schools across UK to shut down from as early as Friday
					

But emergency powers allow ministers to force some schools to remain open for children of key workers




					www.independent.co.uk
				




finally , boris one step behind as usual


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 18, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I hate to say this, but that's the plan that's been talked about in the hospital I work in.





treelover said:


> I think this deserves its own thread, i know a fair few medical sources, including an ex inf diseases nurse who basically helps sick people with advice, medics and others, and i am hearing that patients over 80 are not being allowed to go into hospital, while in doncaster, those who have a co-morbity will not be allocated an ICU ventilator
> 
> this needs confirming of course, i do hope it is wrong.





prunus said:


> Perhaps do the confirming before posting the alarming news that is likely to cause possibly unnecessary mental distress to quite a lot of vulnerable people?



While I sympathise with your sentiment prunus you can see from the above quotes from other threads that this is indeed what has been happening in Italy and definitely planned for in the UK.

Apologies for those quotes being out of sync and missing the one that confirms Italy. Too ill to sort it out, sorry.


----------



## strung out (Mar 18, 2020)

32 more deaths - total now at 104


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (Mar 18, 2020)

Just heard that 50% of coronavirus intensive care cases in France are of people under 60. This seems to be very different from Italy. No explanation that I have seen yet.


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 18, 2020)

Kevbad the Bad said:


> Just heard that 50% of coronavirus intensive care cases in France are of people under 60. This seems to be very different from Italy. No explanation that I have seen yet.


source?


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 18, 2020)

ruffneck23 said:


> Schools across UK to shut down from as early as Friday
> 
> 
> But emergency powers allow ministers to force some schools to remain open for children of key workers
> ...



I thought the purpose of keeping the schools open was that health workers could get to work and not have to stay at home looking after children?  Not surprising they held off this long.


----------



## Kaka Tim (Mar 18, 2020)

UK failures over Covid-19 will increase death toll, says leading doctor



> Horton said nothing in the science had changed since January. “The UK’s best scientists have known since that first report from China that Covid-19 was a lethal illness. Yet they did too little, too late,” he said.
> 
> Horton has been a vocal critic of the government’s approach to the coronavirus pandemic from the start, and his concerns have been echoed by many scientists who work on infectious disease outbreaks.
> 
> Devi Sridhar, a professor of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, tweeted: “We had the data. We had time. We should have learned from this data in early Jan and anyone looking at this from a public health/medical side has been worried about the stress on the health system, in every country.”



Which is what a lot of people have been saying on here and elsewhere. What i dont understand is why our public health experts have failed so badly - you expect Johnson and co to be wankers - but why didn't the people with knowledge and expertise go along with his lackadaisical approach?  Where was the contingency planning? We probably wont ever know until the public enquiry finishes sometime in 2038.


----------



## 2hats (Mar 18, 2020)

Kevbad the Bad said:


> Just heard that 50% of coronavirus intensive care cases in France are of people under 60. This seems to be very different from Italy. No explanation that I have seen yet.


I think this is what the WH Coronavirus Task Force press conference has just touched upon. Birx initial interpretation seemed to hypothesise that millennials have taken a larger risk with this (chimes with my personal observations over the last ~2 weeks - perhaps it is down to that cohort's misinterpretation of initial data and trends out of SE Asia, to say nothing of the invincibility of youth) and maybe the over exposure has led to more infections/higher viral loads so statistically we are simply just starting to see disproportionately more serious cases in that demographic.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 18, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> UK failures over Covid-19 will increase death toll, says leading doctor
> 
> 
> 
> Which is what a lot of people have been saying on here and elsewhere. What i dont understand is why our public health experts have failed so badly - you expect Johnson and co to be wankers - but why didn't the people with knowledge and expertise go along with his lackadaisical approach?  Where was the contingency planning? We probably wont ever know until the public enquiry finishes sometime in 2038.



I suspect they listened to the experts that they wanted to listen to, and gave them clear briefings on what they wanted to hear.


----------



## Kaka Tim (Mar 18, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I suspect they listened to the experts that they wanted to listen to, and gave them clear briefings on what they wanted to hear.



But why did Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, and Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer go along with this? Especially the "herd immunity" stuff and lack of testing - which was completely out of step with every other country and WHO guidelines. Why weren't they contingency planning? Are they gutless fucks? I think both of their reputations will be in the toilet when this is all over.


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (Mar 18, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> source?


Jerome Salomon, director general for health, quoted in Business Insider (not my normal read).


----------



## little_legs (Mar 18, 2020)

He is offering the hotel to the NHS staff, get in.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 18, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> But why did Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, and Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer go along with this? Especially the "herd immunity" stuff and lack of testing - which was completely out of step with every other country and WHO guidelines. Why weren't they contingency planning? Are they gutless fucks? I think both of their reputations will be in the toilet when this is all over.



Agreed, and my post  looks weaker the more I look at it. I wonder whether they were saying that we should be doing contingency planning but just weren't listened to and were told not to say anything in public.

And yep I wouldn't give much for their reputations - they're going to look like they were just political appointees.


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 18, 2020)

Kevbad the Bad said:


> Just heard that 50% of coronavirus intensive care cases in France are of people under 60. This seems to be very different from Italy. No explanation that I have seen yet.


very curious being as today he said only 7% of those infected were under 70









						'Thank you Parisians, don’t bring the virus': plea from rural France
					

As Parisians flee to countryside, rural-dwellers accuse them of spreading infection and emptying shops




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 18, 2020)

you never heard this here but be prepared for 14 day lockdown and 10 week social distancing announcement

good luck all


----------



## weltweit (Mar 18, 2020)

With today's deaths bringing UK to a total of 104, the UK is now ranked 7th by deaths in the world.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 18, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> you never heard this here but be prepared for 14 day lockdown and 10 week social distancing announcement
> 
> good luck all


That will be quite an escalation.  By lockdown do we mean what France is doing, no going out unless you’re shopping?


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 18, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> That will be quite an escalation.  By lockdown do we mean what France is doing, no going out unless you’re shopping?


i wonder, will brighton rerun their carnival of shopping again this year?


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 18, 2020)

weltweit said:


> With today's deaths bringing UK to a total of 104, the UK is now ranked 7th by deaths in the world.


reports from downing streets indicate that johnson is going ballistic that the uk might miss out on a medal


----------



## Kaka Tim (Mar 18, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> That will be quite an escalation.  By lockdown do we mean what France is doing, no going out unless you’re shopping?



Id put money on it. They will have to.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 18, 2020)

Someone is feeling Churchullian. What's with the random caps lock and underlining though.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 18, 2020)

Krakow City Council has released this f9r English speakers in the City. 

Lots of good information. You can compare to UK measures. 



			https://www.krakow.pl/zalacznik/356534


----------



## 2hats (Mar 18, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> very curious being as today he said only 7% of those infected were under 70


infected != intensive care admissions


----------



## treelover (Mar 18, 2020)

Schools close their gates on friday, williamson announces.

the crisis deepens


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 18, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Someone is feeling Churchullian. What's with the randon caps lock and underlining though.



only this is the churchill of 1915, the churchill who came up with gallipoli


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 18, 2020)

if you have anyone to see, get it done asap.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 18, 2020)

Called it a couple of weeks ago (closed schools 20th).

This government is a fucking mess. No closedown then a closedown. Stop testing then massively ramp up testing. Increase social distancing but no shutting of social places


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 18, 2020)

2hats said:


> infected != intensive care admissions


7% of 7730 is 541

i suspect things have changed radically in france since he spoke to business insider or cnn or whoever


----------



## bimble (Mar 18, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> if you have anyone to see, get it done asap.


Fucks sake. Heard the rumour but expected an announcement . Why would they do it this way instead?


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 18, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Called it a couple of weeks ago.
> 
> This government is a fucking mess. No closedown then a closedown. Stop testing then massively ramp up testing. Increase social distancing but no shutting of social places




this is what i heard earlier today from a solid source


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 18, 2020)

bimble said:


> Fucks sake. Heard the rumour but expected an announcement . Why would they do it this way instead?




because cowardly twats


----------



## weltweit (Mar 18, 2020)

Boris - 

schools to shut Friday 

but need schools to make provision for children of critical workers


----------



## treelover (Mar 18, 2020)

Do you mean complete lock down


----------



## treelover (Mar 18, 2020)

heard what?


----------



## little_legs (Mar 18, 2020)




----------



## smokedout (Mar 18, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> very curious being as today he said only 7% of those infected were under 70
> View attachment 202196
> 
> 
> ...



Seems to have come from this quote 3 days ago reported by CNN

“We have counted this evening 300 serious cases in intensive care. We have serious cases also amid adults and let me remind you that more than 50% of people in intensive care are under 60," Jerome Salomon said at a news conference on Saturday. "

I think he might be making an overall point about intensive care capacity and that over 50% of intensive care patients in total (not just Covid sufferers) are under 60.  Sounds like a possible translation error from an over eager reporter.  Either that or he said it to shit up millenials, in which case fair play.


----------



## editor (Mar 18, 2020)

Schools closing 



			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51939591


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 18, 2020)

Did we have this yet? 









						Boris Johnson's father says he will still go to pub despite government’s coronavirus advice
					

Stanley Johnson's comments came less than 24 hours after his son urged British public to 'avoid pubs, clubs, theatres and other social venues'




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 18, 2020)

editor said:


> Schools closing
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51939591



Exams all cancelled too. That's massive.


----------



## bimble (Mar 18, 2020)

treelover said:


> heard what?


A rumour (but from a probably decent source) that there will be something similar coming now - tomorrow - to what Italy and spain and others already have, so that you will still be allowed to go shopping but not much else.
I can’t say it’s true just what I’ve been told .
If you want to avoid unnecessary crowds probably a good idea to behave as if it is true and do whatever you need to today.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 18, 2020)

Oh fucking great 

People with blood type A may be more susceptible to coronavirus


----------



## treelover (Mar 18, 2020)

think it might just be london that goes into complete lockdown


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 18, 2020)

How on earth will they ensure "pupils receive the qualifications they need"?

My Boy is distraught, he was studying really hard to prove his predicted grades were bullshit and get 8s and 9s in his GCSEs.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 18, 2020)

Did anyone hear anything about Universities and Colleges?


----------



## Hollis (Mar 18, 2020)

S☼I said:


> How on earth will they ensure "pupils receive the qualifications they need"?
> 
> My Boy is distraught, he was studying really hard to prove his predicted grades were bullshit and get 8s and 9s in his GCSEs.


Talking to my principal they could do it through teacher assessment. But it is still not going to be a fair process.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 18, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Oh fucking great
> 
> People with blood type A may be more susceptible to coronavirus



Not that too. It's starting to feel like this virus is designed specifically to target me! 

Italy has a significantly higher percentage of people with type a blood, 42% compared to 28% (Europe in general does, with the exception of Turkey). I wonder if that's part of the reason for the higher mortality rate.


----------



## chilango (Mar 18, 2020)

Idle musing.

Summer holidays used to "catch up" on the final term with exams in October (when resits would normally be).

Next academic year starts in January 2021, and school years carry on starting in January from then on.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 18, 2020)

S☼I said:


> How on earth will they ensure "pupils receive the qualifications they need"?
> 
> My Boy is distraught, he was studying really hard to prove his predicted grades were bullshit and get 8s and 9s in his GCSEs.



Yeah, going on predicted grades alone will massively disadvantage some kids.


----------



## clicker (Mar 18, 2020)

S☼I said:


> How on earth will they ensure "pupils receive the qualifications they need"?
> 
> My Boy is distraught, he was studying really hard to prove his predicted grades were bullshit and get 8s and 9s in his GCSEs.


Maybe they'll be given the choice of a predicted grade or sit it in November (when they'd normally do re-sits).
If they don't accept the predicted grade it would kind of be like re-sitting it.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 18, 2020)

chilango said:


> Idle musing.
> 
> Summer holidays used to "catch up" on the final term with exams in October (when resits would normally be).
> 
> Next academic year starts in January 2021, and school years carry on starting in January from then on.



Yup, you'd think exam boards would be able to have delayed tests. Not sure changing the school year is really practical.


----------



## chilango (Mar 18, 2020)

scifisam said:


> There aren't October resits any more (well, never were, they were November) but yup, you'd think exam boards would be able to have delayed tests. Not sure changing the school year is really practical.



Nothing is really practical anymore.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 18, 2020)

clicker said:


> Maybe they'll be given the choice of a predicted grade or sit it in November (when they'd normally do re-sits).
> If they don't accept the predicted grade it would kind of be like re-sitting it.


But he intends to start college in September.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 18, 2020)

It's going to massively fuck with the university entrance schedule as well, potentially creating a bubble year with 2 years' worth of students entering uni in 2021.


----------



## clicker (Mar 18, 2020)

S☼I said:


> But he intends to start college in September.


 But will colleges be arranging interviews now? Maybe college places will have to be awarded on a good faith basis. Students can either submit a teacher given predicted grade or their own prediction if they plan to take it in november. Then they take gcses during college time, if they don't accept a predicted grade? It's all speculation though.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 18, 2020)

scifisam said:


> Not that too. It's starting to feel like this virus is designed specifically to target me!



Yep me too. How are you with monkeys? A- here.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 18, 2020)

clicker said:


> But will colleges be arranging interviews now? Maybe college places will have to be awarded on a good faith basis. Students can either submit a teacher given predicted grade or their own prediction if they plan to take it in november. Then they take gcses during college time, if they don't accept a predicted grade? It's all speculation though.


Yeah, and I think it was a mistake to allow space for this speculation. Good rule of thumb is never introduce a problem without having a possible solution up your sleeve. They didn't need to cancel exams today.

My lad's had an interview with the SEN team at college but not yet with the course lead, which likely won't happen anytime soon.


----------



## clicker (Mar 18, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Yeah, and I think it was a mistake to allow space for this speculation. Good rule of thumb is never introduce a problem without having a possible solution up your sleeve. They didn't need to cancel exams today.
> 
> My lad's had an interview with the SEN team at college but not yet with the course lead, which likely won't happen anytime soon.


Yes it is a massive deal for those ready to take the exams.  I don't know what other countries have planned,assuming most have end of year exams.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 18, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> It's going to massively fuck with the university entrance schedule as well, potentially creating a bubble year with 2 years' worth of students entering uni in 2021.



I'm waiting on an offer for a postgrad course which may now not happen at all. Fun times.


----------



## agricola (Mar 18, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Yeah, and I think it was a mistake to allow space for this speculation. Good rule of thumb is never introduce a problem without having a possible solution up your sleeve. They didn't need to cancel exams today.
> 
> My lad's had an interview with the SEN team at college but not yet with the course lead, which likely won't happen anytime soon.



its almost as if they sat down and had a four hour brainstorming session on how they could possibly mess up a decision which every other country in Europe seems to have dealt with simply


----------



## andysays (Mar 18, 2020)

While I can understand that this is a massive deal and a source of great uncertainty for those directly affected, I'm not convinced that deciding when exams should take place or how college intakes might work next September is or should be the government's top priority ATM.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 18, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Yep me too. How are you with monkeys? A- here.



Also a- but tbh, and I know it's weird, I've not had much direct experience with monkeys.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 18, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Oh fucking great
> 
> People with blood type A may be more susceptible to coronavirus


Thankfully I've got common as muck O blood.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 18, 2020)

andysays said:


> While I can understand that this is a massive deal and a source of great uncertainty for those directly affected, I'm not convinced that deciding when exams should take place or how college intakes might work next September is or should be the government's top priority ATM.



I think you might be underestimating the number of kids whose lives will be negatively affected by this. Nobody's saying it's more important than intensive care beds.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 18, 2020)

scifisam said:


> Also a- but tbh, and I know it's weird, I've not had much direct experience with monkeys.



there's time yet


----------



## campanula (Mar 18, 2020)

scifisam said:


> Not that too. It's starting to feel like this virus is designed specifically to target me!





two sheds said:


> Yep me too. How are you with monkeys? A- here.


 Feck - me too (A-)


----------



## agricola (Mar 18, 2020)

andysays said:


> While I can understand that this is a massive deal and a source of great uncertainty for those directly affected, I'm not convinced that deciding when exams should take place or how college intakes might work next September is or should be the government's top priority ATM.



Deciding whose kids stay in school is possibly the most critical decision they've made so far - emergency services and the military will have to, as will delivery workers but they will also have to cover anyone involved in food production / distribution and everyone in the medical supply chain too.


----------



## maomao (Mar 18, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Oh fucking great
> 
> People with blood type A may be more susceptible to coronavirus


The Chinese are obsessed with blood types. It's a study of 2 and a half thousand people and while it's statistically significant it's certainly not definitive. Wouldnt worry about that factor specifically too much. Says Mr Type O.


----------



## terrythomas (Mar 18, 2020)

why does johnson and co keep hinting at what's to come? it's creating confusion when clarity is required


----------



## maomao (Mar 18, 2020)

terrythomas said:


> why does johnson and co keep hinting at what's to come? it's creating confusion when clarity is required


Because they're obsessed with the public reaction and want to see the reaction before they've made the decision. Then they pretend it's all Dom and his behavioural science. Is it fuck.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 18, 2020)

maomao said:


> The Chinese are obsessed with blood types. It's a study of 2 and a half thousand people and while it's statistically significant it's certainly not definitive. Wouldnt worry about that factor specifically too much. Says Mr Type O.



Ahhh now you mention it I remember reading something about that. I'm snake for example: 






						Snake's Personality Analysis by Four Blood Types
					

Analysis on Chinese Zodiac Snake based on different blood types, O, A, B, and AB, including the personality traits, strong points, weak points, and suggestions.



					www.travelchinaguide.com
				






> People born in the Year of the Snake with blood type A are too talkative, and like giving speeches in public occasion to draw others’ attention. People think they are flashy and self-ego, and will choose to isolate them at last. They are also over sophisticated in relationship, lack of uprightness. They usually make up to boss or leaders, and even selling their work fellows. Although they get what they want, but they lose their friends, their most powerful backup.



Says nothing about susceptibility to coronavirus - phew.


----------



## Hollis (Mar 18, 2020)

scifisam said:


> I think you might be underestimating the number of kids whose lives will be negatively affected by this. Nobody's saying it's more important than intensive care beds.



Yes - but actually what about the lives of staff supporting them - they are statistically at much higher risk than children.  I'm not sure anyone's health should be put at risk.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 18, 2020)

maomao said:


> The Chinese are obsessed with blood types. It's a study of 2 and a half thousand people and while it's statistically significant it's certainly not definitive. Wouldnt worry about that factor specifically too much. Says Mr Type O.



That's true (a Chinese ex of mine followed a blood type diet and would only let me eat food for my blood type when I was around her), but it is a statistically significant difference. Since blood types vary by country, and it's possible to inherit susceptibility to some diseases (white Europeans are less likely to contact HIV, for example), it wouldn't be that surprising if there were different levels of severity across blood types. Not that it's an extra reason to be concerned, still.


----------



## scifisam (Mar 18, 2020)

Hollis said:


> Yes - but actually what about the lives of staff supporting them - they are statistically at much higher risk than children.  I'm not sure anyone's health should be put at risk.



That doesn't mean completely cancelling the exams rather than delaying them.


----------



## Hollis (Mar 18, 2020)

scifisam said:


> That doesn't mean completely cancelling the exams rather than delaying them.



No, the feeling in my school was the announcement on exams was premature...  It should set alarm bells that they seem so confident that people aren't going to be able to go back to school to the summer.  However I'm not sure what the other options are - delay a year?


----------



## maomao (Mar 18, 2020)

scifisam said:


> That's true (a Chinese ex of mine followed a blood type diet and would only let me eat food for my blood type when I was around her), but it is a statistically significant difference. Since blood types vary by country, and it's possible to inherit susceptibility to some diseases (white Europeans are less likely to contact HIV, for example), it wouldn't be that surprising if there were different levels of severity across blood types. Not that it's an extra reason to be concerned, still.


Absolutely. Blood type has a lot to do with antibody production. But look at the figures. It's not a done deal and the sample size is pretty small.


----------



## oryx (Mar 18, 2020)

London due to go into lockdown any day now. Also hearing this from other sources.









						London could go into lockdown under tougher coronavirus measures
					

No 10 considers stricter containment steps as disease spreads rapidly in the capital




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## bimble (Mar 18, 2020)

We saw what happened when they announced it in Milan, people rushing from the city to every corner of the country. May be a partial explanation for the reluctance to announce such measures clearly before implementing?


----------



## agricola (Mar 18, 2020)

oryx said:


> London due to go into lockdown any day now. Also hearing this from other sources.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Sturgeon should really stop coming out with things like that - I can well imagine they have discussed it and might well be bringing it in, but saying that it looks likely is just going to pack people onto trains and planes to all points of the UK .  If they are going to announce it, it has to be certain.


----------



## prunus (Mar 18, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> While I sympathise with your sentiment prunus you can see from the above quotes from other threads that this is indeed what has been happening in Italy and definitely planned for in the UK.
> 
> Apologies for those quotes being out of sync and missing the one that confirms Italy. Too ill to sort it out, sorry.



TBH it was the use of 'are' as in it's happening now that I considered required greater clarity of source - are over 80s really being denied access to hospital now?  I think we'd have heard of it somewhere other than a random on a message board*.  That it will happen unless we lockdown tightly (and maybe even then) I don't doubt.  But let's not ramp up the fear ahead of where it needs to be.

* I could be wrong of course.


----------



## oryx (Mar 18, 2020)

I agree, but there is already evidence that people flocking to the coast etc. in other countries has added to the problem so while a bit of advance notice is welcome, people should be sensible enough to realise that and not travel.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 18, 2020)

A380 said:


> Here’s the New Bill:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


was just reading this, pretty grim reading. Crematoria running round the clock and commissioning vehicles to move bodies about.

*Managing the deceased with respect and dignity*
....
If the scientific advice indicates that the number of people who might die from COVID-19 is likely to significantly exceed the capacity locally to manage the deceased and other contingency measures have been deployed, local government will have the ability to take control of a component or components of the death management process in their area.

For example, local authorities may choose to direct local actors such as funeral directors, mortuaries owners, crematoriums owners and others, to streamline the death management process. This may include an increase in the operating times of crematoriums, directing companies to use their vehicles to move bodies, or directing others not directly involved in the funeral sector, to provide necessary support.

Only in the most extreme situations where there is a risk to public health would the powers of direction be used and only be used when scientific evidence and operational advice suggests that it is necessary. Activating the powers will ensure the local death management system continues to work effectively to protect public health and the dignity of the deceased. Personal choice will be respected as far as possible, especially in regard to how we handle loved ones after they have passed.


----------



## prunus (Mar 18, 2020)

maomao said:


> Absolutely. Blood type has a lot to do with antibody production. But look at the figures. It's not a done deal and the sample size is pretty small.



And the effect is not that strong.  37% of hospitalised cases type A vs 32% of the general population.  It's not like it's selectively culling all the type As.

NB also the study suggests type O is protective, let's not only focus on the negative side

Disclaimer - I don't know what my blood group is, so...


----------



## scifisam (Mar 18, 2020)

prunus said:


> And the effect is not that strong.  37% of hospitalised cases type A vs 32% of the general population.  It's not like it's selectively culling all the type As.
> 
> NB also the study suggests type O is protective, let's not only focus on the negative side
> 
> Disclaimer - I don't know what my blood group is, so...



85 is 41%of 206, isn't it? Not 37%. And only 28% of China is in the A blood group. So it's 41% vs 28%.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 18, 2020)

Like fuck are schools opening again the rest of this year.


----------



## Kaka Tim (Mar 18, 2020)

How long before we hear the words "national government"


----------



## elbows (Mar 18, 2020)

I dont know what blood type I am anyway. I seem to recall my paternal grandfather used to brag about being type O.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 18, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> How long before we hear the words "national government"


Was thinking that earlier today.


----------



## maomao (Mar 18, 2020)

elbows said:


> I dont know what blood type I am anyway. I seem to recall my paternal grandfather used to brag about being type O.



Home test kits are a couple of quid if you're bothered. Or just go out with/marry someone Chinese. They'll make you find out.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 18, 2020)

... or give blood


----------



## elbows (Mar 18, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> How long before we hear the words "national government"



I couldnt guess a timescale but as with most things, very much including all things political, governmental and economic, my attitude in this sort of pandemic will be 'never say never'.

The current government & their scientific advisers do seem to keep giving us the means by which to judge them a failure. There was the 4 weeks timescale that then became '3 weeks+London a bit head' and more recently we keep getting told that the target is to keep deaths down to around 20,000.


----------



## treelover (Mar 18, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Was thinking that earlier today.



If it means they take on most of labours social security policies, i may be able to live with that.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 18, 2020)

My local MP has been tested positive for coronavirus








						Brighton Kemptown MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle tests positive for coronavirus
					

LLOYD Russell-Moyle has coronavirus.




					www.theargus.co.uk


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 18, 2020)

Kaka Tim said:


> How long before we hear the words "national government"



Never from this shower of cunts.


----------



## elbows (Mar 18, 2020)

Germany is having the same sorts of issues as the UK in terms of people going out as if nothing had happened.



			https://www.thelocal.de/20200318/breaking-coronavirus-is-germanys-biggest-challenge-since-world-war-ii-says-merkel
		




> In a dramatic appeal, Merkel urged everyone to play a part in slowing down a virus that has raced across the globe and triggered unprecedented peace-time lockdowns.
> 
> "The situation is serious. Take it seriously. Not since German reunification, no, not since the Second World War has our country faced a challenge that depends so much on our collective solidarity," she said.





> The country has however stopped short of ordering people to stay home, in contrast with the tougher restrictions introduced in France, Belgium, Italy and Spain.
> 
> But Germans have continued to go outside to enjoy the spring sunshine and socialise, highlighting the authorities' struggle to hammer home the message that people must avoid social contacts.


----------



## sunnysidedown (Mar 18, 2020)

Preprint on development of a serological assay (unrefereed).









						A serological assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 seroconversion in humans
					

Introduction SARS-Cov-2 (severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus 2), which causes Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID19) was first detected in China in late 2019 and has since then caused a global pandemic. While molecular assays to directly detect the viral genetic material are available for...




					www.medrxiv.org


----------



## little_legs (Mar 18, 2020)

elbows said:


> Germany is having the same sorts of issues as the UK in terms of people going out as if nothing had happened.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.thelocal.de/20200318/breaking-coronavirus-is-germanys-biggest-challenge-since-world-war-ii-says-merkel


Maybe it's because to date Germany has had 26 deaths, looking at Germany's numbers and seeing what a well-funded healthcare system gets you is depressing.


----------



## elbows (Mar 18, 2020)

sunnysidedown said:


> Preprint on development of a serological assay (unrefereed).
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Good. I was pleased to see these sorts of tests getting mentioned in todays UK press conference as well (mostly referred to there as antibody tests).


----------



## weltweit (Mar 18, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Maybe it's because to date Germany has had 26 deaths, looking at Germany's numbers and seeing what a well-funded healthcare system gets you is depressing.


I agree, lots of cases very few deaths, the Germans are doing something right.


----------



## elbows (Mar 18, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Maybe it's because to date Germany has had 26 deaths, looking at Germany's numbers and seeing what a well-funded healthcare system gets you is depressing.



Yes their intensive care capacity puts ours to shame many times over.

However its too soon to cheer their numbers, they might just be days behind other countries. Well to be honest what I'm expecting to see from their number of deaths is that they will show the tragic increases seen elsewhere, but perhaps not at the same pace. And there could be a point at which their quantity of deaths really starts to diverge from ours, wont resemble 'ours but lagging behind a few days' any more. If that happens then it might very well be a sign of what proportion of the deaths in some other EU countries and the UK is down to those countries running out of intensive care capacity (including locally) as opposed to patients that couldnt be saved even if the facilities were there. It is more than plausible that Italy and later Spain already reached that phase in the worst affected areas.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 18, 2020)

Germany hasn't had their cases for very long and as a result does not have either many deaths nor many recovered. It might be interesting to see the countries ranked by the number of people who have recovered.

Like this:


from: Coronavirus Update (Live): 217,031 Cases and 8,911 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer


----------



## little_legs (Mar 18, 2020)

elbows said:


> Yes their intensive care capacity puts ours to shame many times over.
> 
> However its too soon to cheer their numbers, they might just be days behind other countries. Well to be honest what I'm expecting to see from their number of deaths is that they will show the tragic increases seen elsewhere, but perhaps not at the same pace. And there could be a point at which their quantity of deaths really starts to diverge from ours, wont resemble 'ours but lagging behind a few days' any more. If that happens then it might very well be a sign of what proportion of the deaths in some other EU countries and the UK is down to those countries running out of intensive care capacity (including locally) as opposed to patients that couldnt be saved even if the facilities were there. It is more than plausible that Italy and later Spain already reached that phase in the worst affected areas.


Agreed. You make good points.


----------



## prunus (Mar 18, 2020)

sunnysidedown said:


> Preprint on development of a serological assay (unrefereed).
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This is very good news - nice ELISA test is just what we need. Fingers crossed it’s replicable. This is standard well understood technology so if it works should be easy to roll out fast and wide.

My personal reaction to this news only goes to indicate to myself how desperate for any kind of positive news I have been.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 18, 2020)

Italy


elbows said:


> Yes their intensive care capacity puts ours to shame many times over.
> 
> However its too soon to cheer their numbers, they might just be days behind other countries. Well to be honest what I'm expecting to see from their number of deaths is that they will show the tragic increases seen elsewhere, but perhaps not at the same pace. And there could be a point at which their quantity of deaths really starts to diverge from ours, wont resemble 'ours but lagging behind a few days' any more. If that happens then it might very well be a sign of what proportion of the deaths in some other EU countries and the UK is down to those countries running out of intensive care capacity (including locally) as opposed to patients that couldnt be saved even if the facilities were there. *It is more than plausible that Italy and later Spain already reached that phase in the worst affected areas.*



Elbows, could I ask you how you arrived at the conclusion that Italy may have reached the peak phase? This is not a dig at you, and I've seen this elsewhere, I just want some more information.

I ask because a friend from the north of Italy tells that their state news broadcaster is telling them that the peak is expected to be reached on March 25th.

With Italy the north and south divide is adding another layer to the problem. Like the same friend tells that when the outbreak hit the north it caught a lot of Italians from the south working in the wealthy north. And because the government dragged its feet, many of the southerns continued working in the north unaware that the bastard virus was spreading from people who appeared to be healthy/not showing any signs of being sick. Then, when the government started locking down areas in the north, all the southerners went back home, where the healthcare infrastructure doesn't even come close to the north, and effectively _brought_ the virus to the south. North and South Italy might as well be two entirely separate countries in terms of wealth, which is probably factoring in Italy's fatality rate not slowing down.


----------



## elbows (Mar 18, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Elbows, could I ask you how you arrived at the conclusion that Italy may have reached the peak phase? This is a dig at you, and I've seen this elsewhere, I just want some more information.



I didnt say anything about them reaching peak phase. I suggested that their intensive care availability has not kept up with demand, and that we have to take into account what a poor effect on case fatality rate that can have. Countries could reach that point well before the peak of their epidemics.

I've put no thought at all into when I would expect any country to peak. I dont have the models, or the data about what their lockdowns are hoped to achieve, and are actually achieving in terms of infection rates. And there are a whole raft of statistics that I cannot take at face value right now because of ongoing unknowns about how many milder cases are not being tested in various countries.

But I do know that we probably need to think more locally when we consider epidemic timing. The first town or city in Italy to start seeing lots of cases, serious cases and deaths may be further ahead than even the town next door, and so things should also improve there sooner. I think I saw one article where they were hopeful their town was at or nearly at or past the peak, but I dont remember where in Italy that was.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 18, 2020)

that was either Codogno or Vo'


----------



## little_legs (Mar 18, 2020)

elbows said:


> I didnt say anything about them reaching peak phase. I suggested that their intensive care availability has not kept up with demand, and that we have to take into account what a poor effect on case fatality rate that can have. Countries could reach that point well before the peak of their epidemics.
> 
> I've put no thought at all into when I would expect any country to peak. I dont have the models, or the data about what their lockdowns are hoped to achieve, and are actually achieving in terms of infection rates. And there are a whole raft of statistics that I cannot take at face value right now because of ongoing unknowns about how many milder cases are not being tested in various countries.
> 
> But I do know that we probably need to think more locally when we consider epidemic timing. The first town or city in Italy to start seeing lots of cases, serious cases and deaths may be further ahead than even the town next door. I think I saw one article where they were hopeful of being at or nearly at or past the peak, but I dont remember where in Italy that was.


Oh dear, I am being an idiot then. I walked right into it didn't I, my apologies.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 18, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Italy
> North and South Italy might as well be two entirely separate countries in terms of wealth, which is probably factoring in Italy's fatality rate not slowing down.



the vast majority of the deaths are in the richest region of the country, Lombardy. so this doesn't add up at all. the North also has the worst air pollution in Europe, which I think is a much bigger factor in the extremely high mortality rate in northern Italy compared to other regions and countries.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 18, 2020)

Flavour said:


> the vast majority of the deaths are in the richest region of the country, Lombardy. so this doesn't add up at all. the North also has the worst air pollution in Europe, which I think is a much bigger factor in the extremely high mortality rate in northern Italy compared to other regions and countries.


Sure, I get that. The friend that I mentioned says that the deaths are increasing in the South as well, and she is afraid that as a country they haven't seen the worst yet.


----------



## pseudonarcissus (Mar 18, 2020)

The Brazilian news is talking about the police seizing fake alcohol gel.


----------



## elbows (Mar 18, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Sure, I get that. The friend that I mentioned says that the deaths are increasing in the South as well, and she is afraid that as a country they haven't seen the worst yet.



The fear would be based on the idea that Southern Italy is just further behind the epidemic than the north, and that a similar fate awaits them, except with even less healthcare capacity.

The main hope that this fear will not be fully realised would be that if they were further behind, then the lockdown and other behavioural changes occurred earlier on in their epidemic curve, with a bigger impact on the resulting number of cases.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 18, 2020)

elbows and Flavour - thank you for elucidating pea brains


----------



## treelover (Mar 18, 2020)

Coop giving food vouchers to pupils in the schools they support, nice one


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 18, 2020)

AoC = Association of Colleges. Likely to be the same for schools 



Crucially NOT predicted grades or mock scores.


----------



## elbows (Mar 19, 2020)

I cant really tell how many people really get this aspect at the moment.



> At a World Health Organization briefing Wednesday, health officials also stressed that cases of severe illness were not restricted to older people.
> 
> “The idea that this is a disease that causes death in older people, we need to be very, very careful with,” said Mike Ryan, the head of the WHO’s emergency program, who noted that almost 20% of deaths in South Korea were in people younger than 60. “Physicians again in Italy will attest to this, and in Korea. This isn’t just a disease of the elderly. There is no question that younger, healthier people experience an overall less serious disease. But a significant number of otherwise healthy adults can develop a more severe form of the disease.”











						U.S. official says data show severe coronavirus infections among millennials, not just older Americans
					

A top health official on the White House’s coronavirus task force warned that young people could suffer severe health risks from Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.




					www.statnews.com
				




Likely part of the reason they are highlighting this in the USA is trouble getting those age groups to take things seriously, but its all very real anyway. Low percentages in regards younger people seem to have been poorly understood by some.

I'm not sure how well prepared people are for what is to come in healthcare settings either.









						UPDATE 1-WHO calls for ramping up of medical supplies to fight coronavirus
					

The World Health Organization called on Wednesday for "order and discipline" in the market for health equipment needed to fight the coronavirus pandemic and said it was in discussions with China and others to ramp up supplies.




					www.reuters.com
				






> More than 200,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported the world over, although death rates have varied across countries and have been particularly high in Italy where 475 new deaths over 24 hours were reported on Wednesday.
> 
> Ryan said that the difference was likely caused by the “astonishing” number of cases within the clinical system and well as the high number of elderly people in Italy.
> 
> ...


----------



## Humberto (Mar 19, 2020)

It'll just keep coming round won't it? Stave the deaths avelanche off until a vaccine may or may not be rolled out. Can't see it though.


----------



## elbows (Mar 19, 2020)

Humberto said:


> It'll just keep coming round won't it? Stave the deaths avelanche off until a vaccine may or may not be rolled out. Can't see it though.



I'll wait and see what happens in all sorts of places in the next few months before attempting to seriously think about what will happen later. But I expect there to be a lot of pressure to come up with medical interventions.


----------



## David Clapson (Mar 19, 2020)

C4 News filmed in an ICU at Cremona, Italy the other day. Rather terrifying death rate. It explains the timing of the spike in the death numbers...nothing can be done to save the sickest patients. Intubation merely delays their death, for about 2 weeks I think. Inside one intensive care team fighting coronavirus in Cremona, Italy


----------



## David Clapson (Mar 19, 2020)

Here's a 20 page report from Imperial College modelling what may happen over the next 18 months

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

The link was posted on twitter by an epidemiologist


----------



## David Clapson (Mar 19, 2020)

Much as I detest everything Trump says, he raises a pertinent question when he says it's a Chinese virus.  Look at their wet markets: Why Do New Disease Outbreaks Always Seem to Start in China? | RealClearScience  And look at how the cover-up spread the virus unnecessarily Subscribe to read | Financial Times  (very soft paywall, just click to read) Looks like we can expect more new viruses until the Chinese stop eating bats How China’s “Bat Woman” Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coro.navirus

Alternatively, if we don't want to single out the Chinese we could blame all meat-eaters. Or humans generally, for overcrowding the planet, hence living too close to livestock.

Edit: I've just read the Bat Woman's conclusion:"The novel 2019 coronavirus is nature punishing the human race for keeping uncivilized living habits."


----------



## Grace Johnson (Mar 19, 2020)

.


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Mar 19, 2020)

Coronavirus: Asian nations face second wave of imported cases
					

There is growing concern that people returning home as borders close could bring the virus with them.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




South Korea, China and Singapore are among the Asian countries facing a second coronavirus wave, spurred by people importing it from outside.


----------



## 5t3IIa (Mar 19, 2020)

Can someone please help me find a list of key workers, as defined in the current circumstances?

I understand that ‘NHS and police’ are easily understood at a top level after the news briefing relating to school closures yesterday but are there other jobs included?


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 19, 2020)

5t3IIa said:


> Can someone please help me find a list of key workers, as defined in the current circumstances?
> 
> I understand that ‘NHS and police’ are easily understood at a top level after the news briefing relating to school closures yesterday but are there other jobs included?


I don't have a list but I'm certain supermarket workers and delivery drivers were included, and surely council workers like binmen will be too


----------



## chilango (Mar 19, 2020)

> You are a member of NHS staff
> You work for the police or armed forces
> You work in the fire and rescue service
> You work for children or adult social care
> ...



A list I saw yesterday...


----------



## 5t3IIa (Mar 19, 2020)

S☼I said:


> I don't have a list but I'm certain supermarket workers and delivery drivers were included, and surely council workers like binmen will be too


Im potentially in a ‘secondary’ service but not a sexy one. In fact, one that people are generally scared of so I’m partly sure it’s on the list but no word from the employer yet (civil service) 🙄 I just hoped there’d be a longer list, with *all* the orgs drilled down. Too much to ask, I suppose 😒


----------



## 5t3IIa (Mar 19, 2020)

chilango said:


> A list I saw yesterday...


Thank you! Could I have a link? Assume it’s .gov? Cheers 👍🏼


----------



## chilango (Mar 19, 2020)

5t3IIa said:


> Thank you! Could I have a link? Assume it’s .gov? Cheers 👍🏼



It's not .gov, it was in an email sent out by a school Head.

It's the list they're provisionally using till the Government catches up and issues official guidance.


----------



## 5t3IIa (Mar 19, 2020)

chilango said:


> It's not .gov, it was in an email sent out by a school Head.
> 
> It's the list they're provisionally using till the Government catches up and issues official guidance.


Jfc no official guidance 😖😖😖😖


----------



## chilango (Mar 19, 2020)

5t3IIa said:


> Jfc no official guidance 😖😖😖😖



It's a bit of a thread running through the whole response isn't it?

_Laissez-faire_ in the extreme


----------



## 5t3IIa (Mar 19, 2020)

I don’t know about any other Civil Servants on the boards but I, for one, am Quite Frustrated 👍🏼 I understand we have to wait for the Ministries to trickle down _nothing_ but o m g the _waiting. _


----------



## chilango (Mar 19, 2020)

Remember the people in charge were raised with this as their scripture...



> I think we have gone through a period when too many children and people have been given to understand "I have a problem, it is the Government's job to cope with it!" or "I have a problem, I will go and get a grant to cope with it!" "I am homeless, the Government must house me!" and so they are casting their problems on society and who is society? There is no such thing! There are individual men and women and there are families and no government can do anything except through people and people look to themselves first. It is our duty to look after ourselves and then also to help look after our neighbour and life is a reciprocal business and people have got the entitlements too much in mind without the obligations.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 19, 2020)

5t3IIa said:


> I don’t know about any other Civil Servants on the boards but I, for one, am Quite Frustrated 👍🏼 I understand we have to wait for the Ministries to trickle down _nothing_ but o m g the _waiting. _


I think it's the same for everyone really. Waiting and not knowing is going to get on top of me if I'm not careful.


----------



## 5t3IIa (Mar 19, 2020)

S☼I said:


> I think it's the same for everyone really. Waiting and not knowing is going to get on top of me if I'm not careful.


At least private business can make their own decisions. But yes, you’re quite right.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 19, 2020)

One of the major frustrations about the testing regime (or non-testing) is that most people who have had it and got through OK won't know whether it was the virus or just a standard seasonal thing.  I know the reasons why we are not testing but what a great thing it would be if people who have had it and built up decent immunity could actually get out there and start helping instead of staying at home watching netflix and eating pot noodles.

I know its not absolutely certain you can't get it twice but from everything I've read it seems highly unlikely and we are playing the odds here.  Better get people out helping the vulnerable and helping our stretched public services than sat at home on the very small chance you can get it twice.


----------



## agricola (Mar 19, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> One of the major frustrations about the testing regime (or non-testing) is that most people who have had it and got through OK won't know whether it was the virus or just a standard seasonal thing.  I know the reasons why we are not testing but what a great thing it would be if people who have had it and built up decent immunity could actually get out there and start helping instead of staying at home watching netflix and eating pot noodles.
> 
> I know its not absolutely certain you can't get it twice but from everything I've read it seems highly unlikely and we are playing the odds here.  Better get people out helping the vulnerable and helping our stretched public services than sat at home on the very small chance you can get it twice.



Indeed - the amount of people in the emergency services who have flu-like symptoms and self-isolated but who don't know if they have this is growing all the time, and as you say if they do have it now and are immune then they are going to be very useful in the next few weeks / months.  Not testing them is daft, especially as they know who they are and that they are all sat at home.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 19, 2020)

Rogue statelets Abkhazia and nagorno karabakh remain (officially) Covid free.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 19, 2020)

agricola said:


> Indeed - the amount of people in the emergency services who have flu-like symptoms and self-isolated but who don't know if they have this is growing all the time, and as you say if they do have it now and are immune then they are going to be very useful in the next few weeks / months.  Not testing them is daft, especially as they know who they are and that they are all sat at home.


Cheese string hair said yesterday antibody tests are on the way which will greenlight people they know have had it to get back into the world. No timeframe though.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 19, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> Rogue statelets Abkhazia and nagorno karabakh remain (officially) Covid free.



Cambodia doing well also.  Quite remarkable given their links to China and their big tourist industry in general.  Obviously doing something right...?


----------



## Flavour (Mar 19, 2020)

... not testing?


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 19, 2020)

Got an email from public health england just now, much info about cv here Finding the evidence: Coronavirus


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 19, 2020)

Flavour said:


> ... not testing?



You're very cynical.  The president declared Cambodia corona free.  Surely you'd trust an ex Kymer Rouge guy?


----------



## agricola (Mar 19, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> You're very cynical.  The president declared Cambodia corona free.  Surely you'd trust an ex Kymer Rouge guy?



year zero testing?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 19, 2020)

Michel Barnier the EU negotiator working on Brexit has got it !!


----------



## treelover (Mar 19, 2020)

Many people seem to be abusing the early shopping hour in supermarkets for elderly and vulnerable,  scum

though many vulnerable people never go out that early.

maybe the tabloids can switch their naming and shaming from the poor disabled, etc, to these people,


----------



## Wilf (Mar 19, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> if you have anyone to see, get it done asap.


I drove down to my Mum's care home yesterday (100 mile trip I do every other week). Got a voicemail on route that they are in lockdown.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 19, 2020)

Mr.Bishie said:


> Coronavirus: Asian nations face second wave of imported cases
> 
> 
> There is growing concern that people returning home as borders close could bring the virus with them.
> ...




This is what the whole world is going to have to do. Keep borders closed until at least 4 weeks after no new cases in the country, and then only lift borders with other countries that have done the same with no new cases in 4 weeks.

I think it's probably the only way possible.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 19, 2020)

Wilf said:


> I drove down to my Mum's care home yesterday (100 mile trip I do every other week). Got a voicemail on route that they are in lockdown.



My dad's care home is locked down too. Has been since Monday.  No visitors at all.  My dad has no cough reflex and swallowing difficulties amongst other things so if the bug gets in the care home he's finished.


----------



## andysays (Mar 19, 2020)

treelover said:


> Many people seem to be abusing the early shopping hour in supermarkets for elderly and vulnerable,  scum
> 
> though many vulnerable people never go out that early.
> 
> maybe the tabloids can switch their naming and shaming from the poor disabled, etc, to these people,



Where do you get this information from?

How do you know the people you're accusing aren't vulnerable in some way, or essential staff who have to get their shopping done at this time for any number of reasons?

Gotta keep up that daily hate quota somehow...


----------



## Wilf (Mar 19, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Michel Barnier the EU negotiator working on Brexit has got it !!


Crexit, Croaksit... Damn, need better puns.


----------



## treelover (Mar 19, 2020)

Just heard half my tesco online shop is not avaialbale, mushrooms, potatoes, lemons, quorn products,  essentials like laundry liquid, they need to get a grip, i am contacting politicians, ministers, etc, we need some kid of rationing. 

i knew that the system could not cope with a major disaster:  the network i have been part of, has been battling with the council, govt, etc, about the crisis in social care for ages, for now, we are are on our own,  we now really need civil society to step up where it simply hasn't been in the past.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Mar 19, 2020)

Mr.Bishie said:


> Coronavirus: Asian nations face second wave of imported cases
> 
> 
> There is growing concern that people returning home as borders close could bring the virus with them.
> ...



Right, but there is an incredibly slick quarantine operation going on in China right now. Although people (like me) are entering the country, we're not free to enter the community or mingle with people. We are sent directly to isolation centers and tested on arrival. This is a good, sensible thing -- I'm not complaining. I think at this point it's what all countries need to do if they want to stay on top of cases, if they're already engaged in a rigorous testing process. I guess it would be kind of pointless in the UK, since they're not interested in testing people with symptoms anyway.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Mar 19, 2020)

*Government publishes emergency legislation*

A new 329-page emergency bill to tackle the coronavirus pandemic has been published by the government.
You can read it here.



			https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/bills/cbill/58-01/0122/20122.pdf


----------



## Cid (Mar 19, 2020)

Not read this nyt article properly yet, in middle of something. Just popping it here in case of paywall. Seems they have quite high proportions of hospitalisation among relatively young people. Lot to unwrap though.



> Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S.
> 
> 
> New C.D.C. data showed that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were aged 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people.
> ...


----------



## T & P (Mar 19, 2020)

I know Arnold Schwarzenegger was quite a dick in his younger years but I’m loving him at the moment with his regular video updates urging people to isolate and ignore the twats trying to play down or deny the severity of the pandemic. And the light relief of seeing him playing indoors with his donkeys is much welcome


----------



## editor (Mar 19, 2020)

Tory filth 









						Iain Duncan Smith says universal basic income during coronavirus pandemic would be 'disincentive to work'
					

Former work and pension secretary says his Universal Credit scheme would be a better way of dealing with disease




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## chilango (Mar 19, 2020)

chilango said:


> A list I saw yesterday...



A list I've seen today:



> .
> Here is a provisional list (this has not been confirmed by the government yet).
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## Numbers (Mar 19, 2020)

On the DHSC site there’s posts, + on the worldometer site, that numbers are 66 of new cases, but 33 deaths.


----------



## Thora (Mar 19, 2020)

Our schools has sent a similar list, though it includes all NHS workers, care staff, supermarket workers and critical infrastructure workers.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 19, 2020)

editor said:


> Tory filth
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What the fuck is wrong with this utter cunt? This spiv, this liar, this abject failure - this freeloading canker? I genuinely hope he dies in pain, and you all know I'm not usually the sort to say such a thing.


----------



## elbows (Mar 19, 2020)

Since there are now attempts to keep this forum somewhat tidy, can we avoid putting UK-specific stuff on this thread when there are more appropriate locations for it, especially stuff that involves the politics, or peoples own UK personal situations?


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 19, 2020)

I'm watching Trump's news conference live.  Transposed on the live feed is a ticker for the Dow Jones.  The more the man talks, the lower the Dow goes.  You can watch it in realtime.


----------



## extra dry (Mar 19, 2020)

I could only stand a few moments of the thing talking, he looks so empty and a husk of a torn corn on cob, before switching off. He knows nothing and lies, the whitehouse staff will roll back everything it just said.


----------



## D'wards (Mar 19, 2020)

Wrong thread..


----------



## weltweit (Mar 19, 2020)

I haven't seen the Italy days numbers yet but I overhear a broadcaster saying that total deaths in Italy now exceed China. Can that be right? Yup it is:


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 19, 2020)

Does anyone know what’s going on in North Korea?

It can’t  be good


----------



## sihhi (Mar 19, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> Unless you're a qualified doctor, I don't think you can assume anything of the sort.



The qualified doctors do not have their protocols in place in spite of China CDC's guidebook.



Unfortunately my brother and his partner both have symptoms and are self-isolating. I have asked them to contact trace, but their journeys to work over the past 14 days are unfortunately untraceable. 

Prison riots in France Prison d'Argentan: une quinzaine de détenus montent sur le toit pour protester contre la levée des parloirs

French police have given thousands of fines for rule breakers, people going around at night etc

Yesterday was a significant day in China as no new cases were recorded in Wuhan and Hubei, fireworks etc.
The media is full of the threat of imported cases, strange political stuff flying around about this being _an American coronavirus_

Rafiq Hariri Airport Beirut got totally shut down, smaller airports will carry on with cargo transfers as usual.

There's a massive social media campaign in Colombia to shut down El Dorado Bogota for the next two months.

Basque country giving deaths by age: 







UK can't make up lack of respirators according to manufacturers.









						UK faces 'massive shortage' of ventilators - Swiss manufacturer
					

Britain faces a "massive shortage" of ventilators that will be needed to treat critically ill patients suffering from coronavirus, after it failed to invest enough in intensive care equipment, a leading ventilator manufacturer said on Wednesday.




					www.reuters.com
				




Netanyahu just gave a speech strengthening quarantine measures along the lines of no one can leave home unless there's a reason except pharmacies and food.

Bit of a whirlwind.


----------



## sihhi (Mar 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Right, but there is an incredibly slick quarantine operation going on in China right now. Although people (like me) are entering the country, we're not free to enter the community or mingle with people. We are sent directly to isolation centers and tested on arrival. This is a good, sensible thing -- I'm not complaining. I think at this point it's what all countries need to do if they want to stay on top of cases, if they're already engaged in a rigorous testing process. I guess it would be kind of pointless in the UK, since they're not interested in testing people with symptoms anyway.



Hotels have been requisitioned and are guarded by police. I can only hope that serious quarantine is instituted here and elsewhere in Europe.


----------



## xes (Mar 19, 2020)

Peekaboo. 

All gone a bit pear shaped hasn't it.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 19, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Does anyone know what’s going on in North Korea?
> 
> It can’t  be good


Post scratched  sorry.


----------



## maomao (Mar 19, 2020)

weltweit said:


> 8,500 cases and 91 deaths
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That's South Korea.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 19, 2020)

maomao said:


> That's South Korea.


Oh, my bad, indeed I misread, ignore my post above. I haven't seen any reports about North Korea.


----------



## yaketyyak (Mar 19, 2020)

Watch out everyone 02 are watching apparently. Not big brother related but just seen them carting off someone in Italy who tried to board a train. 😟


----------



## Cid (Mar 19, 2020)

xes said:


> Peekaboo.
> 
> All gone a bit pear shaped hasn't it.



Well... welcome back I suppose.


----------



## xes (Mar 19, 2020)

Cid said:


> Well... welcome back I suppose.


 Nice(ish) to be back. Wish it was under less fucked up circumstances.


----------



## Cid (Mar 19, 2020)

xes said:


> Nice(ish) to be back. Wish it was under less fucked up circumstances.



At least we have a sad face to acknowledge posts with in these afflicted times.


----------



## xes (Mar 19, 2020)

yeah....I'll get used to the new bits as I go along. (it very different in here) 

Hope you're well fella.


----------



## zahir (Mar 19, 2020)

Greece considering stopping all international flights, starting on Sunday. Most hotels will also be closed, not just the seasonal tourist accommodation. Gatherings of more than 10 people banned, including in their homes.









						Greece to halt all international passengers flights to/from Greece - Keep Talking Greece
					

The Greek government is very seriously considering to halt all passengers flights from and to Greece




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## teqniq (Mar 19, 2020)

Very in-depth article that appears to offer a workable strategy going forward.


----------



## Cid (Mar 19, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Does anyone know what’s going on in North Korea?
> 
> It can’t  be good



One of the tragedies of this is going to be undisclosed, unreported outbreaks. In many places.


----------



## elbows (Mar 19, 2020)

Another bad sign for there and most other places:



> *New York City mayor on risk to medical supplies*
> More from the US...
> Bill de Blasio says his city is just two to three weeks away from running out of critical medical supplies.
> Three million N-95 masks, 50 million surgical masks, 15,000 ventilators, 25 million surgical gowns and 25 million gloves are needed "by early in April", New York's mayor said, "for us to ensure that our healthcare system, public and private, can bear the brunt of the coronavirus crisis."
> ...



From BBC live updates page at 21:38 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51955509


----------



## Sue (Mar 19, 2020)

.


----------



## teqniq (Mar 19, 2020)

Government to ask UK manufacturers to build ventilators | Autocar
					

Firms including Ford, Honda and JCB could be asked to repurpose their British factories to support the NHS




					www.autocar.co.uk
				




Unfuckingbelievable.


----------



## RD2003 (Mar 19, 2020)

Give us October 2008 back. It was a piece of piss compared to all this.


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 20, 2020)

How the fuck is a tractor company going to build ventilators?


----------



## Sue (Mar 20, 2020)

Artaxerxes said:


> How the fuck is a tractor company going to build ventilators?


Piece of piss. I'm whipping up a vaccine in my kitchen as we speak.


----------



## petee (Mar 20, 2020)

elbows said:


> Another bad sign for there and most other places:
> 
> 
> 
> From BBC live updates page at 21:38 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-51955509



a perfectly sensible thing to suggest under the circumstances, and there is a USN hospital ship on the way (slowly). deB also floated tbe idea of a SF style quarantine, which would be difficult to deal with but would surely shorten the duration of the emergency. this being NY though, cuomo had to take his diq out right there during the news conference and piss all over deB's  suggestions. local chat rooms are now having cuomo v. deBlasio bun fights, with me in the minority of Bill supporters.


----------



## extra dry (Mar 20, 2020)

Ford = Fix Or Repair Daily not the best advert for medical equipment.


----------



## Callie (Mar 20, 2020)

Sue said:


> Piece of piss. I'm whipping up a vaccine in my kitchen as we speak.


I think I know the recipe. Eggs, old fashion thermometers, something to do with babies, mind control juice. Ta dah!


----------



## Supine (Mar 20, 2020)

Train services to be scaled back from Monday


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Mar 20, 2020)

Things are starting to look a bit dodgy in Thailand now. Their cases are going up much more rapidly. +60 yesterday and + 50 today. Figures taken from the _2020 coronavirus pandemic in Thailand_ wikipedia page.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 20, 2020)

As I understand it companies might be asked to mass-produce _parts_ for ventilators, not lots of companies banging out fully completed ones


----------



## magneze (Mar 20, 2020)

teqniq said:


> View attachment 202400
> 
> 
> 
> ...


TBF, in other parts of the world there's individuals getting on with 3D printing stuff because there's such a shortage. Here we have a *ventilator manufacturer* saying 'we've not had any orders'.

What are they waiting for?


----------



## bimble (Mar 20, 2020)

Governor of California orders a 'shelter in place' lockdown. This says  "The state expected a hospitalization rate of 20%".
That seems..absolutely huge?









						All Californians ordered to shelter in place as governor estimates more than 25m will get virus
					

Governor’s letter to Trump says roughly 56% of state’s residents likely to contract disease over eight weeks




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 20, 2020)

Fuck, Spain has just reported confirmed cases up by 1,903 to 19,980, and deaths up 171 to 1,002.   

SOURCE


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 20, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Things are starting to look a bit dodgy in Thailand now. Their cases are going up much more rapidly. +60 yesterday and + 50 today. Figures taken from the _2020 coronavirus pandemic in Thailand_ wikipedia page.



Only because they've actually started looking I imagine.  Is Cambodia still at 1 case?


----------



## elbows (Mar 20, 2020)

bimble said:


> Governor of California orders a 'shelter in place' lockdown. This says  "The state expected a hospitalization rate of 20%".
> That seems..absolutely huge?
> 
> 
> ...



The rates are thought to be pretty high for some age ranges. eg this is what was in the Imperial College report from Monday that caused a u-turn in government strategy:



If there are caveats to the 20% figure that simply werent mentioned in the article, then the number isnt necessarily at odds with those estimates. eg if they were talking about those aged 60+.

I dunno, there have been some other numbers out of the USA that werent a perfect fit for what we've heard elsewhere, such as percentage of young people requiring hospitalisation. I dont know what the story is, whether its to do with trying to get younger people to heed the warnings, or whether something got miscommunicated, or whether the USA is especially concerned about issues relating to obesity and related conditions.


----------



## bimble (Mar 20, 2020)

Just got an email from someone in Guatemala city. He says they are fully locked down, all public transport stopped. Its a charity and he says they can't even deliver food to people whilst they wait for government permits to be able to be out on the streets at all. The country has I think so far had just one confirmed covid death.


----------



## editor (Mar 20, 2020)

Interesting analysis 




__





						Why have so many coronavirus patients died in Italy?
					





					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Mar 20, 2020)

Premium paywall


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 20, 2020)

Artaxerxes said:


> How the fuck is a tractor company going to build ventilators?



I can see them making parts for them.  A lot of tractor parts are small parts for pneumatic systems.  It could also be electronic components too.  A modern tractor can basically drive itself.  Some of them do with GPS.  They're not my grandpa's rusty trusty anymore.


----------



## fishfinger (Mar 20, 2020)

elbows said:


> Premium paywall





> The coronavirus pandemic is exacting a heavy toll on Italy, with hospitals overwhelmed and a nationwide lockdown imposed. But experts are also concerned about a seemingly high death rate, with the number of fatalities outstripping the total reported in China.
> 
> Of the 41,035 people confirmed coronavirus patients in Italy, 3,405 so far have died - an increase of 427 in the last 24 hours. By contrast China has almost twice as many cases, 81,155, but 3,245 fatalities.
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Mar 20, 2020)

Thanks. The usual stuff then. Sadly we'll probably find out which of these factors were not a big contribution to the end results, as we get more data from other countries whose epidemics are a bit behind Italys.

Although for anyone wondering about how much room countries have to fiddle about with their death statistics, there is a big clue in that article:



> “The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.
> 
> “On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.



Personally I think that if you die and test positive for Covid-19, that should count as a Covid-19 death, even if the patient was likely to die of another condition at some point, and certainly even if their existing conditions contributed to the death.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Mar 20, 2020)

elbows said:


> Thanks. The usual stuff then. Sadly we'll probably find out which of these factors were not a big contribution to the end results, as we get more data from other countries whose epidemics are a bit behind Italys.
> 
> Although for anyone wondering about how much room countries have to fiddle about with their death statistics, there is a big clue in that article:
> 
> ...



I think blaming a death on something else if they're Covid-19 positive is just one more way of hiding the bodies.  I don't know about your government, but mine certainly will do that.  I also think the reason tests are so hard to get because they can blame "unknown respiratory illness" or other cause rather than Covid-19.  My county has tested a total to 22 people.  They triaged several hundred and sent them home with order to self-isolate.  How many of those were actually positive?


----------



## elbows (Mar 20, 2020)

Following on from earlier discussion about USA, here is some data. Note that this is based on rather incomplete data, eg there were lots of cases where hospital, ICU and death info wasnt available, so had to be left out. And we might also expect their data to be further skewed by a lack of testing.









						Severe Outcomes Among Patients with Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19
					

COVID-19 can result in severe disease, including hospitalization, admission to an intensive care unit, and death, especially among older adults. Everyone can take actions, such as social distancing...




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## weltweit (Mar 20, 2020)

elbows I think you should post your Italy fatality comparison chart here on this thread because I don't think so many people saw it on the Italy thread.


----------



## elbows (Mar 20, 2020)

Point taken, but I already hate being the one to share a bunch of that stuff so I'm not going to ramp that up further.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 20, 2020)

Poland have just had their conference.


They are hoping to have the virus under control by 10th of April. So Easter is cancelled. That's big news for Poles.

Ministers thanked the nation for their cooperation and congratulated everyone, but to continue to do as we're doing. We have to act in solidarity with each other. He asked young people to help their neighbours with shopping and dog walking. He thanked students for taking this seriously and not treating it like an extended holiday. Thanked teachers for sorting out home working. Education is set to move to online teaching and they are trying to work out how to do it.

Lots of thanks.

Testing is still a problem.  There are only 13 labs in the whole of Poland and they are running at full capacity.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 20, 2020)

Under control I think meaning, by that point they will know who has what and we should expect that to be the peak of the outbreak.  After that it will likely continue on.

Poland shut down its borders and locked down at 70 cases confirmed. We are now at 411 cases expected, which is 50 more than yesterday but exepct that number by the end of the day to be about 80.

We are 1 week in to Lockdown.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 20, 2020)

FabricLiveBaby! - are you and other half currently in Poland? I saw you posted pictures from Krakow yesterday taken by your other half, wasn't sure if both of you are there.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 20, 2020)

FabricLiveBaby! said:


> Under control I think meaning, by that point they will know who has what and we should expect that to be the peak of the outbreak.  After that it will likely continue on.
> 
> Poland shut down its borders and locked down at 70 cases confirmed. We are now at 411 cases expected, which is 50 more than yesterday but exepct that number by the end of the day to be about 80.
> 
> We are 1 week in to Lockdown.


Ah, just saw this post. Both of you are there. Stay healthy


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 20, 2020)

little_legs said:


> FabricLiveBaby! - are you and other half currently in Poland? I saw you posted pictures from Krakow yesterday taken by your other half, wasn't sure if both of you are there.




Yes this is our home and we've been here for 8 years now.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 20, 2020)

FabricLiveBaby! said:


> Yes this is our home and we've been here for 8 years now.


Nice one.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 20, 2020)

The table here shows some big variations. Clearly there are going to be inconsistencies in data gathering, etc, but the figures show huge differences between countries. Germany, for instance, has 19,600 active cases but just 2 serious/critical, while France has more than 1,000 serious/critical out of 10,000 active cases. They're at different stages - Germany only has 180 recovered to France's 1,295, but still the differences are extraordinary even given that. Is Germany in for a rough week?

Coronavirus Update (Live): 274,171 Cases and 11,354 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Can anyone shed more light on the differences between countries? I know S Korea's relatively impressive recovery rate (under 0.5% mortality thus far) is partly explained by their mass testing programme finding more mild cases than, say, the UK has found, but we're set to learn a lot about relative strategies here. Guess we need to reserve judgement over places like Germany or the UK until a significant number have recovered. 

Schools have been closed in S Korea and Japan for about three weeks now, and they have got a semblance of control. I guess then the question is: Now what?


----------



## zahir (Mar 20, 2020)

Greece restricts travel to islands to permanent residents only.









						Coronavirus: Only permanent residents can travel to Greek islands - Keep Talking Greece
					

The Greek government decided to ban the move of mainland Greeks to the islands as they thought they




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com
				






> The Greek government decided to ban the move of mainland Greeks to the islands as they thought they will have  protection from conoravirus there. However, authorities think otherwise and therefore, only permanent residents will be allowed to travel to the islands. The measure to contain the spread of the pandemic goes into effect at 6:00 o’ clock Saturday morning, March 21, 2020.
> 
> Still on Friday morning and despise authorities warnings, ferries left the port of Piraeus and were so crowded like in the peak of summer holidays.
> 
> ...


----------



## weltweit (Mar 20, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> The table here shows some big variations. Clearly there are going to be inconsistencies in data gathering, etc, but the figures show huge differences between countries. Germany, for instance, has 19,600 active cases but just 2 serious/critical, while France has more than 1,000 serious/critical out of 10,000 active cases. They're at different stages - Germany only has 180 recovered to France's 1,295, but still the differences are extraordinary even given that. Is Germany in for a rough week?
> 
> Coronavirus Update (Live): 274,171 Cases and 11,354 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer


Different countries are doing more or less testing, this affects the number of total cases, so the actual number of cases in their populations will be greater (to a greater or lesser degree) than their reported stats. Deaths is probably more useful as it is less likely they would be as underreported as cases are. 

Germany does seem to have fewer fatalities esp when compared to their number of cases but also Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and others seem to be doing better than Italy, or Spain the current sickest men of Europe.  



littlebabyjesus said:


> Can anyone shed more light on the differences between countries? I know S Korea's relatively impressive recovery rate (under 0.5% mortality thus far) is partly explained by their mass testing programme finding more mild cases than, say, the UK has found, but we're set to learn a lot about relative strategies here. Guess we need to reserve judgement over places like Germany or the UK until a significant number have recovered.



Sorted by total cases the UK is 10th, but sorted by deaths we are now 7th. Deaths as mentioned are more reliable now because of the differences in testing. 



littlebabyjesus said:


> Schools have been closed in S Korea and Japan for about three weeks now, and they have got a semblance of control. I guess then the question is: Now what?


I think for the forseeable future UK testing will be focussed on hospital cases and NHS staff so we won't know about the overall spread until testing capacity is significantly enlarged and made available to the public who have symptoms perhaps more mildly. And of course if an antibody test is made available we could identify people who have had it and are now immune which will have benefits.


----------



## Hollis (Mar 20, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Germany does seem to have fewer fatalities esp when compared to their number of cases but also Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and others seem to be doing better than Italy, or Spain the current sickest men of Europe.



I guess its complicated - I can think of 4-5 immediate factors: population structure, quality of health services and access, public compliance with measures taken, actual public health measures, and timing of implementation.. I'm sure there are loads more.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 20, 2020)

Hollis said:


> I guess its complicated - I can think of 4-5 immediate factors: population structure, quality of health services and access, public compliance with measures taken, actual public health measures, and timing of implementation.. I'm sure there are loads more.


Yes. 

Interesting though that with a population of only about 60m Italy now has more deaths than China with their population of is it a billion? .. The lockdown in China and their massive medical effort seems to have paid dividends. Who would have thought a month ago that Italy would have more deaths than the whole of China?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 20, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes.
> 
> Interesting though that with a population of only about 60m Italy now has more deaths than China with their population of is it a billion? .. The lockdown in China and their massive medical effort seems to have paid dividends. Who would have thought a month ago that Italy would have more deaths than the whole of China?


China's a big place, though, with huge variations in infection rates. Coincidentally the population of Hubei is almost identical to that of Italy. When comparing China with the rest of the world, it makes more sense to compare it to the whole of Europe, with Hubei as their 'Italy'.

This was China at the end of Jan.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 20, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Sorted by total cases the UK is 10th, but sorted by deaths we are now 7th. Deaths as mentioned are more reliable now because of the differences in testing.


That will be true once recovery levels are more similar. As it stands, virtually nobody has been diagnosed and then recovered yet in places like the UK and Germany. Mortality rates will start making more sense then - let's hope the eventual mortality rate everywhere approaches that now found in S Korea when the full picture emerges.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 20, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> That will be true once recovery levels are more similar. As it stands, virtually nobody has been diagnosed and then recovered yet in places like the UK and Germany. Mortality rates will start making more sense then - let's hope the eventual mortality rate everywhere approaches that now found in S Korea when the full picture emerges.


My understanding is that we can at the moment test 10,000 people per day in the UK and that within weeks we will be able to test 25,000 a day. But apparently we have only tested some 40,000 people in total thus far. I agree that recovered stats are interesting, but I don't know how much I trust them compared to the deaths.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 20, 2020)

weltweit said:


> My understanding is that we can at the moment test 10,000 people per day in the UK and that within weeks we will be able to test 25,000 a day. But apparently we have only tested some 40,000 people in total thus far. I agree that recovered stats are interesting, but I don't know how much I trust them compared to the deaths.


It's mostly a measure of the stage we're at, I think. The UK and Germany are just a bit behind on the curve, so over the next couple of weeks the 'recovered' numbers will shoot up. We'll see what happens with the deaths numbers then.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 20, 2020)

I keep looking at UK cases: 3983 so far, 177 deaths only 79 recovered. I suppose we're still at beginning of curve but that 79 is a tad concerning.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 20, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I keep looking at UK cases: 3983 so far, 177 deaths only 79 recovered. I suppose we're still at beginning of curve but that 79 is a tad concerning.


What leaps out from South Korea's stats is <100 deaths now with nearly 2,000 recovered. Whatever they are doing, it's been working better than most.


----------



## xes (Mar 20, 2020)

A Malaria drug is being used to treat people in the states and it's looking hopeful. The guy called it the single biggest advance in fighting it. 


fingers and everything else crossed.


----------



## 8ball (Mar 20, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> What leaps out from South Korea's stats is <100 deaths now with nearly 2,000 recovered. Whatever they are doing, it's been working better than most.



A mate of mine in work was saying how in a few years time we'll have learned a shitload about how to control the next pandemic.  Think she was looking for a bright side, but also think she has a point.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 20, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> What leaps out from South Korea's stats is <100 deaths now with nearly 2,000 recovered. Whatever they are doing, it's been working better than most.


My thinking is that they are fully contact tracing and doing massive testing and jumping on every case they find to prevent further transmission. I haven't seen any reports though nor translated any either so I have no idea actually what they are doing or the obedience of their population and or measures their government are undertaking. If anyone knows it would be interesting to hear.

Does anyone know for example what South Korea's health service is like?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 20, 2020)

weltweit said:


> My thinking is that they are fully contact tracing and doing massive testing and jumping on every case they find to prevent further transmission. I haven't seen any reports though nor translated any either so I have no idea actually what they are doing or the obedience of their population and or measures their government are undertaking. If anyone knows it would be interesting to hear.


Yes, similar to Singapore and Taiwan and Hong Kong. East Asia partly has the jump on us because they have had these scares before, while we haven't. And we kind of ignored the previous scares in East Asia and they went away...

I don't actually want to be too critical - who would want to be a leader right now? But there is a serious game of catch-up being played here, and you've got to look at what's working. It's not like there's a shortage of people with no other work to do if they need a big team of people to do the tracing.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 20, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> ..
> It's not like there's a shortage of people with no other work to do if they need a big team of people to do the tracing.


Sorry I am having a mental block deciphering that sentence. 

Surely we have 20,000 soldiers at the ready to do whatever is needed and they could be put to work tracing contacts and conducting tests?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 20, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Sorry I am having a mental block deciphering that sentence.
> 
> Surely we have 20,000 soldiers at the ready to do whatever is needed and they could be put to work tracing contacts and conducting tests?


I was thinking of all the people who have just lost their jobs for the foreseeable future! I would guess it would take more than 20,000, but of course, whoever is available.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 20, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I was thinking of all the people who have just lost their jobs for the foreseeable future! I would guess it would take more than 20,000, but of course, whoever is available.


Aha. Yes, good point. 

The worst case scenario for Europe was hinted at by a table that elbows posted in the Italy thread which is here il virus: covid-19 in italy which suggests strongly that the UK is 14 days behind Italy, and Germany France and Spain are also a number of days behind Italy also. Being that Italy has now passed China for fatalities, should UK, France, Germany and Spain follow suit, Europe would be in a very bad shape and would have eclipsed China's death toll many times over. 

Personally my hope is that somehow our current measures will mean we miss this prediction .. but that is no means certain, and were we to simply follow Italy the situation would be dire.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 21, 2020)

weltweit said:


> My thinking is that they are fully contact tracing and doing massive testing and jumping on every case they find to prevent further transmission. I haven't seen any reports though nor translated any either so I have no idea actually what they are doing or the obedience of their population and or measures their government are undertaking. If anyone knows it would be interesting to hear.
> 
> Does anyone know for example what South Korea's health service is like?


It's good. And free at the point of delivery. 

The Healthcare System in South Korea


----------



## Azrael (Mar 21, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> That will be true once recovery levels are more similar. As it stands, virtually nobody has been diagnosed and then recovered yet in places like the UK and Germany. Mortality rates will start making more sense then - let's hope the eventual mortality rate everywhere approaches that now found in S Korea when the full picture emerges.


We should remember that "recovered" means negative tests, not necessarily gravely ill: a person can be asymptomatic and still not declared recovered. As described in the other thread, I suspect I have it (no tests, but -- mild --symptoms and especially course closely match the criteria), but symptoms mostly resolved yesterday. If it is Covid, I'll be functionally recovered, but since the virus can apparently linger in the throat for weeks, wouldn't be classed as such until all traces were gone.


----------



## 8ball (Mar 21, 2020)

Sorry for being dim here but the uk dashboard currently shows 79 patients as “recovered”.  

What precisely does that mean?


----------



## Azrael (Mar 21, 2020)

Far as I know, they've tested negative for Covid-19. They could be physically fine, but still not classed as "recovered", perhaps for several more weeks.


----------



## TheHoodedClaw (Mar 21, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Surely we have 20,000 soldiers at the ready to do whatever is needed and they could be put to work tracing contacts and conducting tests?



Who is going to train the 20,000 soldiers to do that? The military isn't a resource that can be deployed like a magic wand to fix any problem. There's stuff that they can help with quickly: most (all?) of the medics are NHS staff anyway, ATC support maybe, but the most likely to be needed is logistics support. Might be a few field mortuaries if things get real bad.


And shooting people, of course.


----------



## Azrael (Mar 21, 2020)

GCHQ can certainly get on it (as they likely have done in the earlier contact tracing phase).


----------



## 8ball (Mar 21, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Far as I know, they've tested negative for Covid-19. They could be physically fine, but still not classed as "recovered", perhaps for several more weeks.



Previous positive swab with later absence of symptoms and negative swab?  Presumably neither serological?


----------



## GailL (Mar 21, 2020)

Meaning they are still carriers of the virus?


----------



## ice-is-forming (Mar 21, 2020)

The border is closed in Australia now. No one getting in or out. We have 877 confirmed cases and 7 deaths.


----------



## platinumsage (Mar 21, 2020)

The big thing South Korea have done with contact tracing is make everything public. e.g. Mr X, a 42 year old 5'10" tall man from Busan has tested positive, he sat in seat 4A in this cinema at 14:30 and then was caught on CCTV sneezing on the way out, just before he used his credit card to buy a can of coke from the kiosk opposite the cinema: South Korea is reporting intimate details of COVID-19 cases: has it helped?

Contrast that with here, where we had that super-spreader from the ski resort and PHE were appealing for people who came into contact with him to come forward, despite refusing to reveal any details about him.


----------



## Jay Park (Mar 21, 2020)

Supine said:


> Train services to be scaled back from Monday



already fucking have been for yonks


----------



## Jay Park (Mar 21, 2020)

weltweit said:


> My thinking is that they are fully contact tracing and doing massive testing and jumping on every case they find to prevent further transmission. I haven't seen any reports though nor translated any either so I have no idea actually what they are doing or the obedience of their population and or measures their government are undertaking. If anyone knows it would be interesting to hear.
> 
> Does anyone know for example what South Korea's health service is like?



Private and world class with a near total coverage rate of its population under insurance.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 21, 2020)

*Portugals state of emergency :*

Three categories of restriction .

*1.  Mandatory containment *which is

 Compulsory confinement, in a health establishment or in their home relates to:

 - Patients with COVID-19 and those infected with SARS-Cov2.

 - Citizens for whom the health authority or other health professionals have determined under active surveillance. 

*2. Special duty of protection*

Those over 70 years old.

- Immunosuppressed people and people with a chronic disease who, according to the guidelines of the health authority, should be considered at risk, namely hypertensive, diabetic, cardiovascular patients, patients with chronic respiratory disease and cancer patients (may, however, except in case of medical discharge, circulate for the exercise of professional activity).

Those who are subject to a special duty of protection may only travel in public spaces and roads, or in spaces and private roads equivalent to public roads, for:

- Acquisition of goods and services.

- Travel for health reasons.

- Travel to post offices and post offices, bank branches and agencies of insurance brokers or insurance companies.


 - Short trips for physical activity, although collective physical activity is prohibited 
 - Short trips to walk dogs

 (These restrictions do not apply to health professionals and civil protection agents, to political office holders, magistrates and leaders of the social partners). 


*3.* *General duty of home confinement   *( ie the rest of the population)*
*
  Citizens who are not subject to “mandatory confinement” or “special duty of protection” can only travel in public spaces and roads, or in spaces and private roads similar to public roads for:

 - Acquisition of goods and services.

 - Travel to perform professional or similar activities.

 - If they are looking for a job or responding to a job offer.

 - Displacement for health reasons, namely to obtain health care and to transport people to whom such care should be administered or to give blood.

 - Displacement for emergency reception of victims of domestic violence or trafficking in human beings, as well as children and young people at risk, decreed by a judicial authority or Commission for the Protection of Children and Youth, in a residential or family home.

 - Travel to assist vulnerable people, people with disabilities, children, parents, the elderly or dependents.

 - Travel to accompany minors on short trips to "enjoy the outdoors" and to attend schools.

 - Short trips for physical activity, although collective physical activity is prohibited.

 - Travel to participate in social volunteering actions.

 - Travel for "other imperative family reasons", namely the fulfillment of parental responsibility sharing.

 - Visits, when authorized, or delivery of essential goods to people who are disabled or deprived of their freedom of movement.

 - Participation in procedural acts with the judicial entities.

 - Travel to post offices and post offices, bank branches and agencies of insurance brokers or insurance companies.

 - Short trips to walk pets and to feed animals.

 - Travel by veterinarians, animal owners for veterinary medical assistance, caregivers from colonies recognized by the municipalities, volunteers from zoophilic associations who need to travel to animal shelters and animal rescue teams.

 - Travel by staff of diplomatic, consular missions and international organizations located in Portugal, as long as they are related to the performance of official functions.

 - Travel required to exercise press freedom.

 - Return to personal home.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 21, 2020)

Blimey The39thStep plenty of wiggle room in Portugal's statement


----------



## bimble (Mar 21, 2020)

That is so much clearer than what we've got, where its pretty much left to each of us to guess what we think 'essential' means.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 21, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Blimey The39thStep plenty of wiggle room in Portugal's statement


Funnily enough I had a conversation with a bloke around the Portuguese CP about the expected State of Emergemcy and he used the exact same phrase. Apparantly its because the constitution was drafted to prevent the reintroduction of fascism and the suspension of democarcy  and the conditions of the State of Emergency have to be worded around  rights within that.


----------



## RTWL (Mar 21, 2020)

eeeerm . Just an observation . Not that I am complaining  .... Gatwick Airport is silent !!!


----------



## ruffneck23 (Mar 21, 2020)

RTWL said:


> eeeerm . Just an observation . Not that I am complaining  .... Gatwick Airport is silent !!!


yeah i worked around the corner ( before being sent to wfh last week) and on even on thursday the whole area was very  quiet.

driving on the m25 was like driving on xmas day , this was before everything got shut down


----------



## RTWL (Mar 21, 2020)

I think it has cancelled most of it`s flights . I had the best sleep last night I have had in ages .


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 21, 2020)

zahir said:


> Greece restricts travel to islands to permanent residents only.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




My mother, aunt and cousins live on various Greek islands.

The problem with this policy is that many Greeks from the mainland cities consider themselves “residents” of the islands (and small rural communities) because they have ancestral properties there. The Greeks will talk about themselves as being from, coming from, places that they only really visit in the hot summer months of exodus from the cities. The other problem of course is that Greeks generally consider themselves independent of the law whenever it suits them. And as a seafaring people they have private launches to get to and fro across the water. 

As I understand it, the islands are being really sensible and already taking precautions internally but that’s all going to fall apart as the city dwellers get going.

Healthcare on the islands is really basic. The islanders know this and that’s why they've been so diligent about social, isolation already.

Added to this is the refugee crisis. I’m almost physically afraid of what’s going to happen when this virus gets into the refugee population and then Syria, Yemen, Palestine....


----------



## zahir (Mar 21, 2020)

Yes, the refugee camps are a disaster waiting to happen. The ones on the islands are now under lockdown. I think Greece, and Europe, as well as the refugees, are about to pay the price for setting up EU concentration camps.









						Fears of catastrophe as Greece puts migrant camps into lockdown
					

Doctors say coronavirus outbreak could be disastrous amid ‘horrific’ conditions




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 21, 2020)

xes said:


> A Malaria drug is being used to treat people in the states and it's looking hopeful. The guy called it the single biggest advance in fighting it.
> 
> 
> fingers and everything else crossed.





This is the story about chloroquine.

Trump has jumped the gun on this. He claimed the FDA has approved it for use on C-19. That's not true and has led to doctors elsewhere (eg Nigeria) using it with resulting overdoses.

It’s one of the agents being investigated. That's not the same thing at all.

Having said that, a colleague of mine has had the virus (moderate Sx treated at home) and reports that she both craved tonic water and felt better for drinking it. Tonic water contains quinine, an antimalarial compound that chloroquinine is based on.  NB In no way is this any kind of claim that tonic water can treat C19!


----------



## zahir (Mar 21, 2020)

The situation for refugees on Samos.









						Samos Refugees: We see a Darkness
					

In Greece, as elsewhere, the coronavirus epidemic now dominates daily life. Rarely a day passes without some new announcement. Most have a major impact as schools and universities, coffee bars, res…




					samoschronicles.wordpress.com
				






> With all the shop, bar and cafe closures, and other virus protocols stressing self-isolation, there are now few locals on the streets of Samos town. On Monday of this week I would estimate that 90% of the people out and about in town were refugees. This bothers the police and probably many others, but it is the police you see on the streets trying to prevent groups of refugees from gathering and insisting that they keep 2 metres apart. But as one group of refugees pointed out to the police, “you want us to have space when we are out in the town but in the camp you pack us like beans in a tin”.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 21, 2020)

zahir said:


> The situation for refugees on Samos.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Samos is my own family’s home island. We came from Smyrna as refugees and landed on Samos. I also have family on Lesbos. Later we went to Athens and Kalamata, Epidavros...

I also have Syrian blood.

Samos is the place where my genetic ancestry meets and mingles. I can’t bear to look at what what’s happening there right now.


----------



## xes (Mar 21, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> This is the story about chloroquine.
> 
> Trump has jumped the gun on this. He claimed the FDA has approved it for use on C-19. That's not true and has led to doctors elsewhere (eg Nigeria) using it with resulting overdoses.
> 
> ...


Thanks for clearing that up, and I think you did just say that tonic water is the cure. Sorry. /spreads it on social media...


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 21, 2020)

How are things where you are zahir ?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 21, 2020)

xes said:


> Thanks for clearing that up, and I think you did just say that tonic water is the cure. Sorry. /spreads it on social media...



Don't forget to mention it only works when mixed with colloidal silver.


----------



## T & P (Mar 21, 2020)

RTWL said:


> eeeerm . Just an observation . Not that I am complaining  .... Gatwick Airport is silent !!!





RTWL said:


> I think it has cancelled most of it`s flights . I had the best sleep last night I have had in ages .


I've just checked Flight Radar 24 and while not as busy as normal, at first there appeared to be a good number of flights on UK airspace. But then I started to click on the individual planes and many of them are just flying overhead, not taking off or landing.

Looking at LGW's live flight info, there have been some movements during the day but it looks like about 75% of all scheduled flights in or out have been cancelled.


----------



## zahir (Mar 21, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> How are things where you are zahir ?



I’m in the UK, small town, not much to note really. About half the shops shut, some of the cafes having a go at offering a takeaway service but I’m not sure they’ll find the demand to keep going. I’m following the news from Greece because I was over there when the first cases appeared and flew back just as the first moves towards a lockdown started. The immediate effect of closing schools and universities seemed to be that cafes and bars in Athens were doing weekend levels of business mid-week. I can see why the government felt the need to shut them down a couple of days later. Much as I dislike the current government their response does look quite competent, at least from a distance. Maybe it would look different if I was still in Athens.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 21, 2020)

zahir said:


> I’m in the UK, small town, not much to note really. About half the shops shut, some of the cafes having a go at offering a takeaway service but I’m not sure they’ll find the demand to keep going. I’m following the news from Greece because I was over there when the first cases appeared and flew back just as the first moves towards a lockdown started. The immediate effect of closing schools and universities seemed to be that cafes and bars in Athens were doing weekend levels of business mid-week. I can see why the government felt the need to shut them down a couple of days later. Much as I dislike the current government their response does look quite competent, at least from a distance. Maybe it would look different if I was still in Athens.




I know some people live in lovely big apartments, but a really huge number of Greeks live in small overcrowded apartments and essentially live outdoors when it gets hot (which will be soon). I know one family with 9 kids and three bedrooms. They have small rooms and a pretty big balcony, which is fairly standard in urban apartments. But imagine being locked down with nine kids.

On the other hand, some (more wealthy but not actually rich) families have second and even third properties that have been closed up and mothballed since the financial breakdown. They’ve not been able to sell the properties and wherever possible have been sitting on them empty. So I guess some of those will be available for extended family?



(For those who don’t know, Greeks have a particular yearning to hand on property to their offspring and wherever possible they buy up and then rent out so they can gift property to their kids when they get married. It’s  not just very rich people who do this.)


----------



## zahir (Mar 21, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I know some people live in lovely big apartments, but a really huge number of Greeks live in small overcrowded apartments and essentially live outdoors when it gets hot (which will be soon). I know one family with 9 kids and three bedrooms. They have small rooms and a pretty big balcony, which is fairly standard in urban apartments. But imagine being locked down with nine kids.


Yes, I can see it getting a bit grim as it gets hotter. It’s understandable they would want to head back to their villages. The government may be able to control this, for the most part, on the islands but I’m not sure how they can stop people going back to the mainland villages.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 21, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Tonic water contains quinine, an antimalarial compound that chloroquinine is based on.  NB In no way is this any kind of claim that tonic water can treat C19!


I saw a woman in Tesco the other day with several boxes of tonic water piled in her trolley - wonder if she had jumped to the same conclusion.

This article is both informative and terrifying:









						The Story of a Coronavirus Infection
					

How the novel coronavirus could take over your body before you ever felt it.




					nymag.com


----------



## Numbers (Mar 21, 2020)

Anyone watching/watch the Trump presser now?
The guy standing behind him falling asleep standing up.  Priceless.


----------



## miss direct (Mar 21, 2020)

Well breaking news in Turkey is that over 65s are banned from leaving the house. This needed to happen, and in fact, should be extended. It was sunny today and loads and loads of people went out as usual. I'm dreading the news in the coming weeks.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Mar 21, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> I saw a woman in Tesco the other day with several boxes of tonic water piled in her trolley - wonder if she had jumped to the same conclusion.


She probably just liked gin.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 21, 2020)

800 deaths today in Italy


----------



## vanya (Mar 21, 2020)

Sunak's Employers' Subsidy
					

It may be unprecedented in the annals of British economic history, but Rishi Sunak's third budget  was just not good enough. For millions ...




					averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com
				






> It may be unprecedented in the annals of British economic history, but Rishi Sunak's third budget was just not good enough. For millions of people forced to endure uncertainty because they don't know if their job will survive the crisis, or because they're self-employed or freelancing, or on short-time working and zero hour contracts, the risk of a much reduced income remains the case.
> 
> In addition to closing down bars, pubs and other ents venues, the big ticket item in today's press conference is the government's pledge to pick up 80% of employee wages up to £2,500/month for the next three months, with the promise of an extension if necessary. Universal Credit sees its standard allowance rise by £1k, and ditto for Working Tax Credits. And that's it. Nothing for the self-employed and precarious workers, no movement on changing the five week waiting time for UC, and no change to statutory sick pay which remains stuck at £94/week, and still nothing for renters. Sunak hasn't even introduced conditionality as per the Danish model - the inspiration for this approach - beyond expecting companies to not fire staff for the duration of this scheme.
> 
> ...


----------



## zahir (Mar 21, 2020)

This is a reasonable article on the economic effects for Greece. There does seem to be an idea floating around that it might all be under control in time for summer and the main tourist season. I wonder if this was a factor in the government acting quickly, in the hope that the worst of the economic disaster could be averted by a fast response. I can’t really see how this can happen though. Even if Greece can bring its own epidemic under control how could it allow mass tourism to restart while the epidemic is still going on in northern Europe? I could imagine it having to wait until there’s a vaccination program with travellers having to show a vaccination certificate to cross borders.









						Greece Braces for New, Coronavirus-Driven Recession
					

Greece’s attempts to recover from its long economic crisis are now being threatened by the coronavirus pandemic, which is expected to deliver a heavy blow to the country’s tourism revenues.




					balkaninsight.com


----------



## clicker (Mar 21, 2020)

A friend flew back into Athens yesterday (or the day before) and will be travelling onto her home island. Once there she'll be self quarantined for 14 days. There have been a lot of people returning in the last week and if seen out and about are being reported to police. The hospital is barely running , without cv.

 She (and all she saw) was swabbed and had her temp taken at Athens airport and was told results would be ready in 48 hours. Well done to Athens if they have managed to get that in place. I'm not sure if they are testing those who are travelling within Greece and onto the islands by ferry yet.


----------



## zahir (Mar 21, 2020)

She may have trouble getting on to a ferry with the new restrictions that came in this morning, unless she can show evidence of permanent residence on the island.


----------



## clicker (Mar 21, 2020)

zahir said:


> She may have trouble getting on to a ferry with the new restrictions that came in this morning, unless she can show evidence of permanent residence on the island.


It's her only residence, she was born there and has her business there. So that's not a problem. The restrictions are so necessary.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 21, 2020)

The international situation sorted by total deaths per country:


----------



## weltweit (Mar 21, 2020)

Germany seems to have a lot of cases, 21,854 with just 77 deaths. It seems to be out South Korearing South Korea which itself has 8,799 cases and 102 deaths. 

There is an interesting column in the table which is cases per million population, sorting the results by that shows some interesting new countries rise to the top.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 21, 2020)

According to Sky News, it's taking off in South Africa.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 21, 2020)

Interesting from China, Beijing, people are being allowed out of their homes into the parks, the only new cases in the last 3 days were people arriving in China, not from local transmission. People are still wearing their masks though. And I don't know if this relaxation also applies to Hubei or Wuhan. 

Source: video on BBC News


----------



## LDC (Mar 21, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> I saw a woman in Tesco the other day with several boxes of tonic water piled in her trolley - wonder if she had jumped to the same conclusion.
> 
> This article is both informative and terrifying:
> 
> ...



I like to think of myself as fairly robust, but that article freaked me the fuck out.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 21, 2020)

How accurate is this?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 21, 2020)

Bondi Beach got closed down today, too many Aussie surfers and sun bathers flouting their health regulations.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 21, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> How accurate is this?
> 
> View attachment 202700


elbows has been posting a table like this for a while and someone earlier posted a graph that a news agency had produced also showing this - that UK deaths are following Italians by 2 weeks. 

What is the source of your table Rutita1?


----------



## brogdale (Mar 21, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> How accurate is this?
> 
> View attachment 202700


Looks correct.
As shown in the graph posted earlier, we're now poised to accelerate away quicker than Italy as we're days/weeks behind their more stringent lockdowns.


----------



## Mation (Mar 21, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> The Story of a Coronavirus Infection
> 
> 
> How the novel coronavirus could take over your body before you ever felt it.
> ...



Christ. That's _really_ fucking terrifying.

Having trouble getting someone to take this seriously enough? Get them to read this!


----------



## weltweit (Mar 21, 2020)

BBC News Channel is showing a film, "shutdown in Wuhan" it is detailing what China did - they acted very early, shut down public transport, asked volunteers to drive hospital workers to work, the army arrived and they started building two new mega hospitals, commandeered sports stadiums as confinement centres, etc etc .. they basically started much earlier than we are and …. I am still watching it now.

CT Scans for checking lung infections
Food supplies managed by the management of each apartment block

If anyone wants to watch it, it is on the iPlayer here: Our World - Wuhan: Life under Lockdown


----------



## ruffneck23 (Mar 21, 2020)

Mation said:


> Christ. That's _really_ fucking terrifying.
> 
> Having trouble getting someone to take this seriously enough? Get them to read this!


IME they just dont listen or they just dont care


----------



## zahir (Mar 21, 2020)

Bishop arrested on Kythera for ignoring restrictions and continuing to hold mass.









						Bishop arrested for holding a mass with faithful despite lockdown - Keep Talking Greece
					

The Bishop of Kythera Seraphim was arrested on Saturday for having opened a church and held a mass i




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## Flavour (Mar 21, 2020)

So it went from 200k to 300k cases in three days.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 21, 2020)

Flavour said:


> So it went from 200k to 300k cases in three days.


Did it? I hadn't been keeping an eye on the world totals. 
Official infected numbers do depend on testing regimes though and in a lot of countries they are only, like here, testing people that are serious enough to get to hospital. There will be many more mild cases.


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 21, 2020)

Not sure where to put this.
If anyone has the skills to help create a field ventillator then have a look. 





						Open Source Ventilator
					






					opensourceventilator.ie
				




"Our mission is to develop a Field Emergency Ventilator (FEV) system to be used in an emergency situation, where a large number of basic ventilator systems are required. We are working closely with a core design team of 20+ area experts, external organisations and other open source groups to develop a number of viable concepts for testing."


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 22, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> How accurate is this?
> 
> View attachment 202700


It's right, and to update it, the UK now has 233 deaths, exactly the same number as Italy on 7 March. Number of diagnosed cases is at 5,000-odd, again the same as Italy 14 days ago. I've been trying to think of reasons why we might not continue to follow the same path as Italy, and I can't think of any.


----------



## MissActualKitty (Mar 22, 2020)

I'm pretty sure I had this in the States before Christmas... 



Spoiler: opinion masquerading as medical fact



had most of the listed symptoms, including the breathing difficulties (which I don't normally get, also didn't fee like the normal flu... not that flu is normal -  but just saying it did not feel like anything I had had before).  I thought actually at the time thought damn! this American virus shit is tough!! Well I was ill for 3 weeks, the first week literally could not get out of bed for more than 5 mins.  If I could have afforded to have called a Doctor I would have.  Upshot is if you are reasonably fit and healthy you will be OK!! And just to say I am flying home on Wednesday from the US and I plan to offer myself up for testing for antibodies to it... as I believe I have had it so might be of help.?


----------



## bimble (Mar 22, 2020)

MissActualKitty said:


> Upshot is if you are reasonably fit and healthy you will be OK!!


Hi glad you're fine but thats not a fact you've written there.


----------



## LDC (Mar 22, 2020)

MissActualKitty said:


> I'm pretty sure I had this in the States before Christmas... had most of the listed symptoms, including the breathing difficulties (which I don't normally get, also didn't fee like the normal flu... not that flu is normal -  but just saying it did not feel like anything I had had before).  I thought actually at the time thought damn! this American virus shit is tough!! Well I was ill for 3 weeks, the first week literally could not get out of bed for more than 5 mins.  If I could have afforded to have called a Doctor I would have.  Upshot is if you are reasonably fit and healthy you will be OK!! And just to say I am flying home on Wednesday from the US and I plan to offer myself up for testing for antibodies to it... as I believe I have had it so might be of help.?



Reported this post for inaccurate medical info that risks lives, and you more generally for total bollocks postings in inappropriate threads. This is for worldwide breaking news, not personal drivel. Fuck off away from here with your stupid posts.


----------



## DaveCinzano (Mar 22, 2020)

USA has reported an 11% jump in new cases since yesterday, when the number of deaths also rose 15% 

24,207 to 26,892.

Source


----------



## editor (Mar 22, 2020)

MissActualKitty said:


> Upshot is if you are reasonably fit and healthy you will be OK!!


Utter nonsense.


----------



## xes (Mar 22, 2020)

Israeli doctor in Italy: No. of patients rises but we get to everyone
					

Dr. Gai Peleg told Israeli television that in northern Italy, patients over 60 tend to receive less treatment with anesthesia and artificial respiratory machines.




					www.jpost.com
				




No longer helping anyone over 60 in Italy.  (don't know how reliable the Jerusalem post is, never heard of it)  Still weeks away from the (1st?) peak. 

C'mon Boris, shut the place down. Italy shut down 9 days ago from where we are now.


----------



## A380 (Mar 22, 2020)

Posting this on a few threads. A Home Working example to bring joy.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 22, 2020)

Double like


----------



## xes (Mar 22, 2020)

Crikey, listen to that whilst reading the latest updates without a lump in your throat and tears in your eye. Somber.


----------



## Mation (Mar 22, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Reported this post for inaccurate medical info that risks lives, and you more generally for total bollocks postings in inappropriate threads. This is for worldwide breaking news, not personal drivel. Fuck off away from here with your stupid posts.


Self-isolation going well, is it?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 22, 2020)

Spain is building a hospital in a disused exhibition space, seems like a very good idea. 

NEC anyone?


----------



## little_legs (Mar 22, 2020)

Question: I still can’t believe Japan’s numbers. High population density, small spaces everyone is crammed into, most of the working population using public transport, and aging population, and yet they’ve taken barely any precautions and done little testing so it seems impossible that everything can just be OK over there.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 22, 2020)

South Korea informing people via their mobiles if they have been in a virus affected area and telling them to get tested. Seems very hi tech their approach and it seems they have plenty of testing available. Source BBC News Channel.


----------



## xes (Mar 22, 2020)

MissActualKitty said:


> I'm pretty sure I had this in the States before Christmas...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I saw a few things not that long ago which was suggesting that the spate of unexplained deaths that there being linked to a mysterious vaping illness could have been this. That was late last year, sort of october ish.


----------



## prunus (Mar 22, 2020)

xes said:


> I saw a few things not that long ago which was suggesting that the spate of unexplained deaths that there being linked to a mysterious vaping illness could have been this. That was late last year, sort of october ish.



This is uninformed ignorant rumourmongering.  Please stop quoting “a few things you’ve seen” or similar without sourcing.  It’s just irresponsible. 

Doctors can tell the difference between viral pneumonia and EVALI (the vape disease) - in particular via CT scan which is part of the management pathway for EVALI inpatients.

Please keep conspiracy theories over on 4chan or wherever. Thank you.


----------



## T & P (Mar 22, 2020)

The Spanish PM has delivered a particularly grim address today, saying the next seven days will be “extremely hard” and the worst is yet to come.


----------



## dilute micro (Mar 22, 2020)

What I hate is still having to convince people that this should be taken seriously. The tickers just keeps ticking.


----------



## xes (Mar 22, 2020)

People are still dying from mysterious vaping illness, even as outbreak slows
					

The total number of cases now stands at 2,602 with 57 fatalities across 27 states, the CDC says.




					www.cnbc.com
				











						Vaping-Related Cases Surge to 1,888, With 37 Deaths
					

The cases of vaping-related illnesses has jumped to 1,888, according to the latest numbers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Thirty-eight deaths have been reported by federal and state health officials.




					www.wsj.com
				



There was an outbreak around that time of a killer vaping illness. (they even named it EVALI)  

Getting all hoity toity when all we're all doing is looking for answers, is a bit wanky. I presented nothing as fact. And if you're sitting around waiting for those, you may be in for a hell of a shock. It'll be far too late to do anything about it. I'm sorry that discussion is so offensive to you.


----------



## SpineyNorman (Mar 22, 2020)

xes said:


> I saw a few things not that long ago which was suggesting that the spate of unexplained deaths that there being linked to a mysterious vaping illness could have been this. That was late last year, sort of october ish.


Utter bollocks, death toll would be in the hundreds of thousands by now if that was true.


----------



## David Clapson (Mar 22, 2020)

Mation said:


> Christ. That's _really_ fucking terrifying.
> 
> Having trouble getting someone to take this seriously enough? Get them to read this!


Oh for heaven's sake. We already knew that you can be infectious before showing any symptoms. The article just describes a perfectly ordinary scenario. You could write the same thing about having a cold.


----------



## elbows (Mar 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Spain is building a hospital in a disused exhibition space, seems like a very good idea.
> 
> NEC anyone?



I wont be surprised if its used for something in this pandemic, whether as an actual hospital I couldnt guess.

Military helicopters have already been doing pandemic-related training exercises around Birmingham Airport.









						Military helicopters training over airport amid Covid-19 crisis
					

RAF pilots are on manoeuvres around the airport as part of plans to assist in transporting patients




					www.birminghammail.co.uk


----------



## David Clapson (Mar 22, 2020)

xes said:


> People are still dying from mysterious vaping illness, even as outbreak slows
> 
> 
> The total number of cases now stands at 2,602 with 57 fatalities across 27 states, the CDC says.
> ...


Putting a vaping illness in a Covid-19 thread is the worst sort of infantile bollocks.  Just stop it. It's as relevant as talking about Mossad and 9/11.


----------



## prunus (Mar 22, 2020)

xes said:


> People are still dying from mysterious vaping illness, even as outbreak slows
> 
> 
> The total number of cases now stands at 2,602 with 57 fatalities across 27 states, the CDC says.
> ...



I am fully aware of this disease. It is the conflatiion of this and Covid-19 that I am objecting to.  This is not ‘looking for answers’. This is conspiralunacy, and has in my opinion no place on at the very least this thread, where people are sharing information, not the half-baked ideas of people who don’t know better.


----------



## xes (Mar 22, 2020)

prunus said:


> I am fully aware of this disease. It is the conflatiion of this and Covid-19 that I am objecting to.  This is not ‘looking for answers’. This is conspiralunacy, and has in my opinion no place on at the very least this thread, where people are sharing information, not the half-baked ideas of people who don’t know better.


Sorry Doctor.


----------



## 2hats (Mar 22, 2020)

xes said:


> I presented nothing as fact.


For the avoidance of doubt, let's carve that gem here in stone, for all future reference.


----------



## xes (Mar 22, 2020)

2hats said:


> For the avoidance of doubt, let's carve that gem here in stone, for all future reference.


And insert it on the end of a massive dildo....

anyway, not the thread for splitting hairs and doing the usual urban75 thing.


----------



## Mation (Mar 22, 2020)

David Clapson said:


> Oh for heaven's sake. We already knew that you can be infectious before showing any symptoms. The article just describes a perfectly ordinary scenario. You could write the same thing about having a cold.


Indeed you could - well, without the death part, or the specific effects on your lungs. But the writer conveys the spread of (an) infection beautifully terrifyingly in a way that clearly shows why all the physical distancing and hand washing is important in a way that 'knowing you can be infectious before showing any symptoms' doesn't.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 22, 2020)

Just been out to Intermarche , the nearest supermarket . Didn’t take photos in the store but can safely say no panic buying in that store . Took some photos of the car park though.


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Mar 22, 2020)

BBC just saying that Germany to impose a no more than two people (not living with) meet, for two weeks!


----------



## teqniq (Mar 22, 2020)

Crazy stuff. Not the first time either. Germany got in there first - read thread:



e2a further down the thread:


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 22, 2020)

I've been doing this for 9 days already most Poles are. 

People need to to get it in their heads that you DON'T MEET ANYONE.


----------



## teqniq (Mar 22, 2020)

Should've closed the beaches, at the very least:









						Coronavirus is killing us in Florida, Gov. DeSantis. Act like you give a damn | Editorial
					

With Florida’s economy crashing under the weight of the coronavirus pandemic, Gov. Ron DeSantis is working overtime to preserve our status as the world’s leading exporter of political comedy.




					amp.miamiherald.com


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 22, 2020)

The news coming out of Italy is actually terrifying.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 22, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> The news coming out of Italy is actually terrifying.


 deaths and number of new cases down today compared to yesterday though, which is positive


----------



## zahir (Mar 22, 2020)

Full lockdown in Greece.









						Greece imposes total Lockdown as of 6am, March 23; Exceptions, Fines - Keep Talking Greece
					

Greece has decided to impose a total lockdown and restrict the movement of citizens in order to cont




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## treelover (Mar 22, 2020)

Terry Waite now on Ch4 news , about isolating, and of course he should know.


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 22, 2020)

The Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Löfven is making a “speech to the nation” later tonight. It’s a rarely invoked constitutional measure, I think last time they used it was when a government minister had been assassinated. 

I would imagine he’ll announce the schools are closing (as they haven’t yet), but if he says anything else noteworthy I’ll update later.


----------



## andysays (Mar 22, 2020)

treelover said:


> Terry Waite now on Ch4 news , about isolating, and of course he should know.


Is he suggesting we should all be chained to radiators?


----------



## Anju (Mar 22, 2020)

Over 15,000 cases from a population of about 20 million. They are testing more people per capita than anywhere in the world, according to the article, but still seems really high.
New York state has more coronavirus cases than France or South Korea as infections soar to 15,168


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 22, 2020)

Anju said:


> Over 15,000 cases from a population of about 20 million. They are testing more people per capita than anywhere in the world, according to the article, but still seems really high.
> New York state has more coronavirus cases than France or South Korea as infections soar to 15,168


Why does it seem high, when all the talk is about expecting 60-70% of the population to get it?


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 22, 2020)

andysays said:


> Is he suggesting we should all be chained to radiators?


Some people should be, tbf.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 22, 2020)

Flavour said:


> deaths and number of new cases down today compared to yesterday though, which is positive


It is. Will wait for that to be confirmed as a trend, though. It's dipped a couple of times before for one day before climbing again.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 22, 2020)

only minor news but a good iniative 









						Drive-thru center opens in Algarve to screen for new coronavirus
					

As of today, the Algarve will have a center for the screening of covid-19, set up next to the Algarve stadium, between Faro and Loulé, allowing the tracking of cases referred by hospitals and the support line from the doctor.




					www.theportugalnews.com


----------



## Proper Tidy (Mar 22, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> only minor news but a good iniative
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Whereabouts are you 39th step? 

Gather there is a lot of inward migration to alentajo cos its under populated and didn't have any cases a few days ago, now its got a few and regional (CP) govt stressed. Borders locked down but hard to control internal movement


----------



## weltweit (Mar 22, 2020)

Angela Merkel is going into quarantine after coming into contact with a doctor who is infected.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 22, 2020)

The IOC has finally come out to say they are considering putting off the Olympics 2020.

They will wake-up soon to the fact that if they go ahead, most countries will not be turning up anyway.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 22, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> The IOC has finally come out to say they are considering putting off the Olympics 2020.
> 
> They will wake-up soon to the fact that if they go ahead, most countries will not be turning up anyway.


I wonder if we might see more realistic infection figures coming out of Japan after they finally give up on the Olympic dream?


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 22, 2020)

So this drug Chloroquine Trump mentioned is apparently going to be used  first in New York after governor Cuomo gave it the go ahead.

Be interesting to see how successful it is.


----------



## DexterTCN (Mar 22, 2020)

The younger ones are calling it the boomer-remover.

I can claim Gen-X status, though.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> So this drug Chloroquine Trump mentioned is apparently going to be used  first in New York after governor Cuomo gave it the go ahead.
> 
> Be interesting to see how successful it is.











						Coronavirus and hydroxychloroquine: What do we know?
					

There are studies looking at using these drugs for Covid-19 - but are they safe and do they work?



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Ax^ (Mar 22, 2020)

so in a couple of week the UK will have testing for the masses

We can count the bodies


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 22, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Coronavirus and hydroxychloroquine: What do we know?
> 
> 
> There are studies looking at using these drugs for Covid-19 - but are they safe and do they work?
> ...



Looks like it’s going to be used maybe for patients under the ‘right to try’ legislation Trump passed a while ago.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 22, 2020)

Germany has apparently tested 200,000 people, and if you want to be tested you can just get tested!! ?? wtf


----------



## Boru (Mar 22, 2020)

FabricLiveBaby! said:


> I've been doing this for 9 days already most Poles are.
> 
> People need to to get it in their heads that you DON'T MEET ANYONE.


Most people in Ireland are living like this the past week or more too - and cases still rising steadily.
I fear England is going to see a spiralling of infections shortly. It's in each person's own interest and health to be as cautious as possible.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> So this drug Chloroquine Trump mentioned is apparently going to be used  first in New York after governor Cuomo gave it the go ahead.
> 
> Be interesting to see how successful it is.





They need to be very careful. Following Trump ‘s lie about chloroquine being approved by the FDA a few days ago people have become terribly ill. It’s very easy to overdose on chloroquine.





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				













						Nigerians poisoned after taking doses of drug praised by Trump
					

Its safety and effectiveness is unproven for use against the coronavirus




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## HAL9000 (Mar 22, 2020)

Another 3d printing story.   Looks like they're using the snorkeling mask from decathlon, it requires a ventilator but still could be helpful.   If that works, I would expect lots of snorkeling masks knocking around since no one is going on holiday.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 22, 2020)

Boru said:


> Most people in Ireland are living like this the past week or more too - and cases still rising steadily.
> I fear England is going to see a spiralling of infections shortly. It's in each person's own interest and health to be as cautious as possible.



Mate I'm so pissed off. 

I found out a couple of days ago that somone at my husband's work went off sick with a fever, then came in 2 days later when he felt better, then went sick again. 

The guy has a second job in a bar so meets many people. 

At that stage I had sitting at home fof a week. Half way through my self quarrentine - just in case.

Now I have to start aaall over again cuz of the Douchebag. 

My husband is working from home now. 9 days is fucking boring and I would have been excited to go out for a walk on Friday but now I've got to wait two weeks again.. Just in case. 

Sitting on your arse wondering if you're gonna get sick, or if you've spread it to somone is not fun. 

Only if you have a fucking conscience I guess.


----------



## Boru (Mar 22, 2020)

FabricLiveBaby! said:


> Mate I'm so pissed off.
> 
> I found out a couple of days ago that somone at my husband's work went off sick with a fever, then came in 2 days later when he felt better, then went sick again.
> 
> ...


That's terrible news. People here are still going out for walks and exercise, just keeping the two metre distance and limiting time in people's company. 
Confined to house only when experiencing symptoms and awaiting test.


----------



## BlanketAddict (Mar 22, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> The IOC has finally come out to say they are considering putting off the Olympics 2020.
> 
> They will wake-up soon to the fact that if they go ahead, most countries will not be turning up anyway.



I don't understand why individual countries don't just take the decision out of their hands and say we're not coming for obvious reasons.


----------



## ruffneck23 (Mar 22, 2020)

HAL9000 said:


> Another 3d printing story.   Looks like they're using the snorkeling mask from decathlon, it requires a ventilator but still could be helpful.   If that works, I would expect lots of snorkeling masks knocking around since no one is going on holiday.



I just heard on the radio that the company that originally made the valves and charged $11,000 a piece for them threatened to sue the bloke who was 3d printing them for  $1

Despicable wankers


----------



## David Clapson (Mar 22, 2020)

There are lots of factors skewing the numbers we are reading in the papers. Numbers of deaths are not very indicative unless you also know the total number of cases. And most countries don't know that, because they have lots of cases which don't get counted.  Many of the people in ICUs will have a delayed death after spending a week or two on a ventilator. Before that happens, they're counted as living. This is why the number of deaths in Italy spiked - they had a backlog of living people who nothing could be done for. Italy's death numbers look especially bad because a Covid 19 patient with multiple conditions is counted as having died of Covid 19. Some other countries do it differently. Italy's numbers are also skewed by them having the second oldest population.  So we probably won't have an accurate picture of current mortality rates for several months.  Another thing which makes international comparisons difficult is the split between patients who are treated at home vs hospital. Then there's air pollution, and the proportion of patients who smoke. The most useful numbers we're getting are from Italy. The average age of people who've died there is 79.  99% of the dead had one other condition, 48% had 3 conditions or more.  Italy's coronavirus deaths surge by 627 in a day, elderly at high risk So it's pretty clear who needs to worry and who doesn't. Bear that in mind when the papers have yet another headline with DEATHS in it. They'll keep doing it every day for the rest of the year. But most of us don't need to read those stories. All we have to do is stop worrying, avoid spreading the virus and help the few who are high risk.


----------



## keybored (Mar 22, 2020)

ruffneck23 said:


> I just heard on the radio that the company that originally made the valves and charged $11,000 a piece for them threatened to sue the bloke who was 3d printing them for a $1
> 
> Despicable wankers


The company denied this. As they would.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 22, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Question: I still can’t believe Japan’s numbers. High population density, small spaces everyone is crammed into, most of the working population using public transport, and aging population, and yet they’ve taken barely any precautions and done little testing so it seems impossible that everything can just be OK over there.


Anybody got any ideas/information?


----------



## poului (Mar 22, 2020)

David Clapson said:


> There are lots of factors skewing the numbers we are reading in the papers. Numbers of deaths are not very indicative unless you also know the total number of cases. And most countries don't know that, because they have lots of cases which don't get counted.  Many of the people in ICUs will have a delayed death after spending a week or two on a ventilator. Before that happens, they're counted as living. This is why the number of deaths in Italy spiked - they had a backlog of living people who nothing could be done for. Italy's death numbers look especially bad because a Covid 19 patient with multiple conditions is counted as having died of Covid 19. Some other countries do it differently. Italy's numbers are also skewed by them having the second oldest population.  So we probably won't have an accurate picture of current mortality rates for several months.  Another thing which makes international comparisons difficult is the split between patients who are treated at home vs hospital. Then there's air pollution, and the proportion of patients who smoke. The most useful numbers we're getting are from Italy. The average age of people who've died there is 79.  99% of the dead had one other condition, 48% had 3 conditions or more.  Italy's coronavirus deaths surge by 627 in a day, elderly at high risk So it's pretty clear who needs to worry and who doesn't. Bear that in mind when the papers have yet another headline with DEATHS in it. They'll keep doing it every day for the rest of the year. But most of us don't need to read those stories. All we have to do is stop worrying, avoid spreading the virus and help the few who are high risk.



Survey of Italian cases, for anyone who's interested.



			https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf


----------



## clicker (Mar 22, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Anybody got any ideas/information?


The cynic in me says The Olympics.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 22, 2020)

HAL9000 said:


> Another 3d printing story.   Looks like they're using the snorkeling mask from decathlon, it requires a ventilator but still could be helpful.   If that works, I would expect lots of snorkeling masks knocking around since no one is going on holiday.




There are some clever fuckers out there I must say.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 22, 2020)

Proper Tidy said:


> Whereabouts are you 39th step?
> 
> Gather there is a lot of inward migration to alentajo cos its under populated and didn't have any cases a few days ago, now its got a few and regional (CP) govt stressed. Borders locked down but hard to control internal movement


Where do yu read that out of interest?   Im in central Algarve near Paderne. I'll pm you the location


Population in the Algarve isnt a lot to be honest , in the tourist months it must multiply by at least five times.. With the tourist industry effectively finished any workers from outside the area will be off I imagine tbh. Theres a lot of people in the Algarve with families in Alentejo , historically people moved from what was the farming/wine/wheat areas of Alentejo to the Algarve to work in tourism, contruction, transport ,  garden/pools etc. Alentejo is quite sparse , fantastic food and scenery and yup its the CPs base area now. The Council next to me Loule is CP.,here is all PSP , some CP and BE support. Many of the initial cases were from abroad but obviously it depends on who has been infected since.

Nationally 1,,600 cases diagnosed , most of these are in the North , 47 in intensive care, 166 dead. Apparantly they are doing a trial with a malaria drug .


----------



## David Clapson (Mar 22, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Anybody got any ideas/information?


No simple answer. Too early to tell Japan was expecting a coronavirus explosion. Where is it? | The Japan Times


----------



## two sheds (Mar 22, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> They need to be very careful. Following Trump ‘s lie about chloroquine being approved by the FDA a few days ago people have become terribly ill. It’s very easy to overdose on chloroquine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



There people go again - criticizing anything Trump says just because it's Trump 

and likely to be batshit insane


----------



## elbows (Mar 22, 2020)

David Clapson said:


> No simple answer. Too early to tell Japan was expecting a coronavirus explosion. Where is it? | The Japan Times



Yeah. Real conclusive answers will mostly come with the benefit of hindsight.

Certainly when reading an article like that, that describes measures they took as tame compared to what others have done, I note a lack of attention to when the measures were taken, not just how strong they were. Timing is key to the extent to which certain measures have an impact.

Infection control protocols, protective equipment etc in hospitals could also make a real difference, especially when it comes to numbers of deaths in the early stages. If aspects of the Japanese system and society mean that especially vulnerable people are more likely to be shielded, then the difference, especially in the early stages, might be pronounced. Institutional spread is likely to be a big part of the story with this pandemic. We arent really seeing the full story unfold in various countries if we just look at the numbers of deaths, such things are a very narrow glimpse at the picture. If we knew about all the notable clusters and suspected hospital, care home etc outbreaks then we might be left with a different impression about the deadly side of this pandemic. And so the opposite is also true, in a country with a notably low number of deaths, it might be a story of these institutional outbreaks not happening (or at least not happening much). Not that such states of affairs in countries can be assumed to continue, some countries that are currently seen as success stories in this pandemic still have many moments ahead where all their good work can come undone.

Having followed the Fukushima disaster fairly closely, I wont take their numbers at face value, but then for various reasons there are lots of numbers from lots of countries that I wouldnt think show the true picture right now either. I doubt such dodgy data reasons are the only reason the Japanese numbers have been this way so far though.


----------



## sideboob (Mar 22, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Anybody got any ideas/information?



Without speculating too much, lack of testing seems to be a factor.   Also, with increased hand washing, cases of normal flu are down compared to the last few years.   I was in the hospital for a scheduled appointment, and for some reason it was almost empty.  Strange, as the waiting are is normally packed with elderly people.  
I don`t know about Tokyo, but there is no social distancing happening in western Japan.   Schools are still closed, but the kids and parents are going to amusement parks, cherry blossom viewing, and enjoying the nice weather in general.    
There are still no masks or hand sanitizer readily available.


----------



## David Clapson (Mar 23, 2020)

We won't get definitive answers until we're past caring! Honestly, I couldn't care less. We should be thinking about how to get food to people who are stuck.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Mar 23, 2020)

David Clapson said:


> We won't get definitive answers until we're past caring! Honestly, I couldn't care less. We should be thinking about how to get food to people who are stuck.



Right, but if we knew we'd had it, we could be more useful in doing exactly these kinds of activities without worrying about infecting people.

I do agree that on the list of urgent things that need to happen right now, it's not at the top though. x


----------



## MissActualKitty (Mar 23, 2020)

editor said:


> Utter nonsense.


how many deaths have there been of fit young healthy people with no underlying conditions then? Please provide the data - Thanks!


----------



## MissActualKitty (Mar 23, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Reported this post for inaccurate medical info that risks lives, and you more generally for total bollocks postings in inappropriate threads. This is for worldwide breaking news, not personal drivel. Fuck off away from here with your stupid posts.
> [/QUOTe
> 
> Put on your big pants love.


----------



## kabbes (Mar 23, 2020)

MissActualKitty said:


> how many deaths have there been of fit young healthy people with no underlying conditions then? Please provide the data - Thanks!











						New analysis breaks down age-group risk for coronavirus — and shows millennials are not invincible
					

The data show that of people ages 20-44 who are infected with #coronavirus, up to one-fifth have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required ICU treatment.




					www.statnews.com
				




“Millennials are not invincible. The new data show that up to one-fifth of infected people ages 20-44 have been hospitalized, including 2%-4% who required treatment in an intensive care unit.”

If you follow the link in that quote, you’ll also find a range of further evidence, including that a solid percentage even of children get hospitalised and the youngest death is of a 14 year old.


----------



## donkyboy (Mar 23, 2020)

DexterTCN said:


> The younger ones are calling it the boomer-remover.
> 
> I can claim Gen-X status, though.



someone was quick to register the domain quaranteens.com which this generation will probably be remembered by


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 23, 2020)

Boru said:


> Most people in Ireland are living like this the past week or more too - and cases still rising steadily.
> I fear England is going to see a spiralling of infections shortly. It's in each person's own interest and health to be as cautious as possible.




Except for the ones furiously exercising and rushing to the beaches.
A hardware store with garden centre attached thatbis up the road from me, was busier than ever yestrrday. Packed with people buying DIY project materials for wheb they finally decide to go indoors.


----------



## Supine (Mar 23, 2020)

keybored said:


> The company denied this. As they would.




There is no regulation that disallows this


----------



## weltweit (Mar 23, 2020)

Oxford team develops rapid coronavirus test
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/oxford-rapid-coronavirus-test/

Looks like a good bit of progress this.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Mar 23, 2020)

Supine said:


> There is no regulation that disallows this



Even if there was, surely they could ignore it in the circumstances. The prospect of enforcement in the circumstances would be nil.


----------



## Doodler (Mar 23, 2020)

The western hemisphere generally will be in a bad way after this, not only socially and economically but also in terms of prestige. Technocratic eastern Asian nation's will be the ones admired by many for their handling of the pandemic. Everyone knows such a shift in power and influence has been happening anyway but the pandemic will speed up the process.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 23, 2020)

And tight control of population as per China will likely come more in favour


----------



## Supine (Mar 23, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> Even if there was, surely they could ignore it in the circumstances. The prospect of enforcement in the circumstances would be nil.



Kind of. The FDA have just issued guidance for ventilator manufacturers regarding what can and can't be done to bring new devices to market very quickly. It's an unprecedented move which will help companies get to market ASAP.


----------



## alex_ (Mar 23, 2020)

Doodler said:


> Technocratic eastern Asian nation's will be the ones admired by many for their handling of the pandemic.



Despotic, surely ?


----------



## Doodler (Mar 23, 2020)

alex_ said:


> Despotic, surely ?



The biggest one is, but not all of them are.


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Mar 23, 2020)

Latest on the Indy ticker, grim.


Huge rise in Spain deaths:

More than 400 people have died in Spain in cases linked to coronavirus since the last count, authorities have said.

The death toll is now 2,182, up from 1,720. Confirmed cases rose to 33,089 from 28,572.


----------



## David Clapson (Mar 23, 2020)

kabbes said:


> youngest death is of a 14 year old.



One death of a teenager in China is not a good reason to worry about teens in general - there could be lots of very uncommon causes of that person's vulnerability, for example an undiagnosed congenital heart defect.  We've all heard of apparently healthy people walking around with that sort of thing undiagnosed for years and years. There must be lots of them in China, especially in areas without sophisticated healthcare.  It would make you extremely vulnerable to this virus.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 23, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> The IOC has finally come out to say they are considering putting off the Olympics 2020.
> 
> They will wake-up soon to the fact that if they go ahead, most countries will not be turning up anyway.



Both Canada & Australia has pulled out, I would expect more to follow, so that's that.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 23, 2020)

Maybe Japan's fash prime minister does not mind that some pensioners will die:


----------



## kabbes (Mar 23, 2020)

David Clapson said:


> One death of a teenager in China is not a good reason to worry about teens in general - there could be lots of very uncommon causes of that person's vulnerability, for example an undiagnosed congenital heart defect.  We've all heard of apparently healthy people walking around with that sort of thing undiagnosed for years and years. There must be lots of them in China, especially in areas without sophisticated healthcare.  It would make you extremely vulnerable to this virus.


We could all have undiagnosed health problems.  That’s the nature of undiagnosed problems.  None of us can guarantee being undiagnosed health problem free and it’s foolish to rely on it.


----------



## kabbes (Mar 23, 2020)

.


----------



## Proper Tidy (Mar 23, 2020)

Also going 'oh the young are fine, well unless they have medical issues, diagnosed or unknown' is a little bit survival of the fittest


----------



## Anju (Mar 23, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> Why does it seem high, when all the talk is about expecting 60-70% of the population to get it?



Because it's too early for that  percentage and with less than 10% of US population they have nearly half of the total cases.

Probably is just down to numbers tested I suppose.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 23, 2020)

Supine said:


> Kind of. The FDA have just issued guidance for ventilator manufacturers regarding what can and can't be done to bring new devices to market very quickly. It's an unprecedented move which will help companies get to market ASAP.


Only sensible to relax certain protocols at the moment, but abandoning all protocols entirely is a recipe for a total disaster. That kind of Trump-like panic could lead to many unnecessary deaths.


----------



## Sue (Mar 23, 2020)

Proper Tidy said:


> Also going 'oh the young are fine, well unless they have medical issues, diagnosed or unknown' is a little bit survival of the fittest


Yep, it kind of makes it feel like you're expendable if you have an underlying condition. (And let's remember that could be something very common like asthma or high blood pressure so not specially exotic or unusual. )


----------



## kabbes (Mar 23, 2020)

Proper Tidy said:


> Also going 'oh the young are fine, well unless they have medical issues, diagnosed or unknown' is a little bit survival of the fittest


That’s my main thought process on it, but we were being asked here specifically to provide evidence that being young doesn’t make you safe.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 23, 2020)

A thought about the international figures and the rolling stats. 

It does appear that you can't glean much from looking at changes from one day to the next, but that you can get a pretty reliable idea of what's going on by taking any three-day chunk and comparing it to the next one. So one day of fewer cases/deaths doesn't count for much. Thinking about why that might be, I _think_ it may show how clumpy infection is - one or two people infecting a whole bunch of others in a short space of time before self-isolating so that those they infect all come down with it together and cause a spike in the numbers.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 23, 2020)

That US line is scary


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 23, 2020)

That's a logarithmic scale, so any curve that is more or less straight indicates exponential growth. In that sense, they're all scary except China, S Korea and Japan, and perhaps Iran.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 23, 2020)

The US is the only dumb country that is yet to shut shit down nation wide.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 23, 2020)

little_legs said:


> The US is the only dumb country that is yet to shut shit down nation wide.


New York has done. One of the problems with country comparisons is that you're not always comparing like with like. It's better to compare the whole of China with the whole of Europe, for instance, with Italy as our 'Hubei', and to compare the whole of Europe with the US, with New York as the US's 'Italy'.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 23, 2020)

So the longer the rest of the states don't shut shit down, what are you going to compare the US with then? the rest of the world?


----------



## little_legs (Mar 23, 2020)

This is scary but they not fucking around in Italy


----------



## elbows (Mar 23, 2020)

Its not just New York either.



> Nearly one in three Americans was under orders on Sunday to stay home to slow the spread of the virus as Ohio, Louisiana and Delaware became the latest states to enact broad restrictions, along with the city of Philadelphia.
> 
> They joined New York, California, Illinois, Connecticut and New Jersey, home to 101 million Americans combined.



On a national level, they are currently fucking around with social distancing measures for a ludicrous 15 days, and Trump has already started making stupid noises about what decision he would prefer to make at the end of that period. 



> President Donald Trump said on Sunday the United States will make a decision at the end of a 15-day period on “which way we want to go”, to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
> 
> “We cannot let the cure be worse than the problem itself,” he said on Twitter. He did not elaborate.











						Trump suggests he may scale back closures soon despite worsening coronavirus outbreak
					

President Donald Trump said on Monday he is considering how to reopen the U.S. economy when a 15-day shutdown ends next week, even as the highly contagious coronavirus is spreading rapidly and hospitals are bracing for a wave of virus-related deaths.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## little_legs (Mar 23, 2020)

Lots of folks living in the US expect to be told go back to work soon. It's shit when you have a president who thinks one million deaths is just a million job openings.


----------



## DaveCinzano (Mar 23, 2020)

With the Italian infection rate now surpassing one-in-a-thousand, however irrational and arbitrary, it does feel somewhat like the Rubicon has been crossed.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 23, 2020)

little_legs said:


> So the longer the rest of the states don't shut shit down, what are you going to compare the US with then? the rest of the world?


I'm not saying what Trump is doing is ok. It's absolutely not, but the US is a bit different in terms of state responsibility vs Federal responsibility. Luckily!

You are right, though. The US is on course to becoming the world leader in CV infection.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 23, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I'm not saying what Trump is doing is ok. It's absolutely not, but the US is a bit different in terms of state responsibility vs Federal responsibility. Luckily!


having studied in the US, I am fully aware of this, but I appreciate you trying to educate us


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 23, 2020)

little_legs said:


> having studied in the US, I am fully aware of this, but I appreciate you trying to educate us


I stand by my point about comparisons between countries. It can be not so illuminating when you don't compare like with like.


----------



## tommers (Mar 23, 2020)

Im confused by the stats. People talk about a death rate of 1,2,4% or whatever. The stats show 15k people died and 100k recovered. Thats more like 13%.


----------



## Grace Johnson (Mar 23, 2020)

little_legs said:


> This is scary but they not fucking around in Italy




Tbf, the police could have had reports about that particular man and were responding like that for their own safety. Something like a violent domestic incident that ended with him storming of and making threats would end in a situation like that as sometimes would here quarantine or not.


----------



## clicker (Mar 23, 2020)

tommers said:


> Im confused by the stats. People talk about a death rate of 1,2,4% or whatever. The stats show 15k people died and 100k recovered. Thats more like 13%.


But a lot of people are sick with it, not all recovered or dead. Isn't the percentage calculated on those infected?


----------



## elbows (Mar 23, 2020)

Those percentages dont mean very much anyway, not when the systems in those countries are so busy they are not testing mild cases. Even when you try to test all mild cases the data oten still ends up not telling the whole story properly, so when you arent even trying its likely to be way off. Need proper blood tests for signs of past infection to eventually find out the true scale of infections and thus a more accurate fatality rate.


----------



## ska invita (Mar 23, 2020)

Doodler said:


> . Technocratic eastern Asian nation's will be the ones admired by many


Who will be doing the admiring?

Also from what I can tell it's a false premise. Hong Kong, such a densely populated city, has kept it under control because people are well self disciplined in social distancing.... Lessons learned from previous experience. Hopefully we'll learn that behaviour too.

I don't think technocraticism is anything to do with it... Individual-collective responsibility is key I think


----------



## treelover (Mar 23, 2020)

little_legs said:


> This is scary but they not fucking around in Italy





Wow.


----------



## elbows (Mar 23, 2020)

ska invita said:


> Who will be doing the admiring?
> 
> Also from what I can tell it's a false premise. Hong Kong, such a densely populated city, has kept it under control because people are well self disciplined in social distancing.... Lessons learned from previous experience. Hopefully we'll learn that behaviour too.
> 
> I don't think technocraticism is anything to do with it... Individual-collective responsibility is key I think



I was talking on another thread today about not getting carried away with the picture so far in countries like Singapore, things can still deteriorate there. And the same applies to Hong Kong, be careful not to get stuck with an out of date picture about whats going on in some of those places!









						Hong Kong will close borders to visitors as it steps up coronavirus fight
					

City reports another alarming surge on Monday – 39 more patients confirmed as having Covid-19, most of them with a recent travel history.




					www.scmp.com
				






> Hong Kong will close its borders to all non-residents and plans to ban the sale of alcohol at thousands of bars and restaurants in a drastic effort to stop an alarming surge of coronavirus infections, both imported and spread locally.
> 
> The city reported another surge on Monday – 39 more patients confirmed as having Covid-19, most of them with a recent travel history and one a doctor tasked with issuing quarantine orders to visitors at the airport.
> 
> With the total number of cases at 356, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor warned of a “critical situation” and became emotional at a press conference as she appealed for public vigilance and compliance with home quarantine orders.


----------



## Doodler (Mar 23, 2020)

ska invita said:


> Who will be doing the admiring?



Those among their own populations with a nationalistic outlook. Ambitious people elsewhere who want to influence how their countries are run.


----------



## A380 (Mar 23, 2020)

Doodler said:


> The western hemisphere generally will be in a bad way after this, not only socially and economically but also in terms of prestige. Technocratic eastern Asian nation's will be the ones admired by many for their handling of the pandemic. Everyone knows such a shift in power and influence has been happening anyway but the pandemic will speed up the process.



Deffo this ^


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 23, 2020)

Not sure google translate does this full justice 

*“Porto:* through military personnel from the Lever Territorial Post, the GNR detained a 40-year-old woman in flagrante delicto for the crime of disobedience to the fulfillment of the prophylactic isolation period COVID-19, in the municipality of Vila Nova de Gaia. The detainee, with no criminal record, was constituted accused and subject to the Identity and Residence Term, with an obligation to remain at home.”


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 23, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Crazy stuff. Not the first time either. Germany got in there first - read thread:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yeah, and Macron seized 130,000 masks heading to U.K. hospitals.

The EU is completely irrelevant, every member country is fending for themselves now.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 23, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Yeah, and Macron seized 130,000 masks heading to U.K. hospitals.



Got a link to a reliable source to confirm that?


----------



## Doodler (Mar 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> I was talking on another thread today about not getting carried away with the picture so far in countries like Singapore, things can still deteriorate there. And the same applies to Hong Kong, be careful not to get stuck with an out of date picture about whats going on in some of those places!



You may well be right. But all Taiwan, China, South Korea etc need do is be seen to make a better job of it than the USA.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 23, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Got a link to a reliable source to confirm that?



I’d say so but I’d say it’s a verboten source for here, so - no linky I’m afraid 🤐


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 23, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> I’d say so but I’d say it’s a verboten source for here, so - no linky I’m afraid 🤐



So, bollocks.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Mar 23, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> The big thing South Korea have done with contact tracing is make everything public. e.g. Mr X, a 42 year old 5'10" tall man from Busan has tested positive, he sat in seat 4A in this cinema at 14:30 and then was caught on CCTV sneezing on the way out, just before he used his credit card to buy a can of coke from the kiosk opposite the cinema: South Korea is reporting intimate details of COVID-19 cases: has it helped?
> 
> Contrast that with here, where we had that super-spreader from the ski resort and PHE were appealing for people who came into contact with him to come forward, despite refusing to reveal any details about him.



My friends son in law went back to South Korea as his visa expired two  weeks ago. This is a message from him.


Hi mum, there are so many things we're doing now! First of all everyone's wearing mask. If you're not wearing, people would think you're crazy or you're not educated. And psychologically people are not paniced.

We don't have any banning or new law or rules that we can't do something so it's just normal life for us. And economy is still fine and running. It's just find and normal. Just we have to wear a mask and need to concider before we go somewhere. That's it at the moment.

Also We trust our goverment, everyone follow them and everyone work hard to overcome the virus together. That's becasue our healthy care system is quick and accurate.

Everyone can get the virus test for free and can get the result the next day morning. The cost of getting rid of the virus is free, even if you are a foreigner. And it's fast.

And we get emergency warning alarm on our phone if we go somewhere.  If someone with corona virus has been some area and if im near there i get really loud warning on my phone. And you can see everyone who has a corona virus on the website. They show you where they have been while they had the virus with dates.

If you have been there that time everyone goes to get the test, even if you don't want to goverment find the people who have been the same place with who has coronavirus and you have to have the test.

There are so many things but i would say the most important thing is people's mind and our process of medical system. We think we can overcome and it's nearly finished. We are still really careful but we're not afraid of the virus.

So that's why everyone's wearing a mask, wash our hand often, avoid crowd. I don't know if you could understand it but if you couldn't understand some part or want to know more i love to talk about it more! and if you search about it internet. There are so many video on youtube or article about korea.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 23, 2020)

The 233 number for Italy and UK finally lifted from Urban and stuck on the news


----------



## ice-is-forming (Mar 23, 2020)

in Australia

66 billion package by federal govt announced. (2nd package so far)

Aim of package. To cushion the blow for Australians. Try and keep economy functioning and for the people.

Grants of 100,000 for small and medium business, to stay in business. Sole trader or casual fall by 20 % can get early access to super. All small business will receive 20,000, larger SME 100,000.
Unsecured loans available, up to 250,000. (Insolvency where there is debt owed increased from 2000 to 20,000, period of time increased from 21 days to 6 months?) (I think)

NFPs will be able to access this 100,000.

Cushion blow to households

Increasing safety nets, Newstart doubled. Assets tests waived. 550 a fortnight, extra.(double jobseeker allowance)

July 13, 5. 2 million.
Super can be accessed, capped at 10,000 this financial year as well as next, tax exempt.
Retirees flexibility, 4% current,y in drawing down will be halved to 2 %

Aimed at front line. For those who will feel first blows. Aimed for next 6 months. Not quick fix. Steel our selves for at least the next 6 months.

Combined package so far is a total 10 per cent of our economy, GDP.(189 billion in total so far)

*Social distancing - keep away from each other at least 1.5 metres for the numpties up the back.
*All non essential travel across the country advised against, cancelled (impacts for Easter holidays)(Regional lock down basically)
*Stronger measures coming for communities with outbreaks (individualised to the community effected)
*State and federal working strongly together on this.Therefore this is an apolitical post in that vein.


----------



## fishfinger (Mar 23, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> So, bollocks.


It's from the Sun. And it's only the headline. The trucks were allowed to continue on their journey with their cargo intact. No supplies were taken.


----------



## elbows (Mar 23, 2020)

S☼I said:


> The 233 number for Italy and UK finally lifted from Urban and stuck on the news



Well its not like we were the only ones making the claim! But yeah its one less thing for me to have to go on about now.

Someone on the BBC got carried away a short time ago and said 1-2 weeks behind Italy. No, we arent 1 week behind, 2 weeks remains the appropriate approximation. But that could change, and as things get far more serious here the comparison may start to serve less purpose anyway, it wont be necessary.


----------



## Sir Belchalot (Mar 23, 2020)

little_legs said:


> This is scary but they not fucking around in Italy



True as it's filmed in Brazil:









						Video shows man forcibly arrested during lockdown in Italy? Fact Check - ThatsNonsense.com
					

A video is spreading that purports to show Italian police arresting a man with a “leg sweep” who was violating the lockdown in the country amid the coronavirus outbreak. FALSE In the video (below) a police officer is seen to have his gun pointed at a suspect while another officer approaches the...




					www.thatsnonsense.com


----------



## little_legs (Mar 23, 2020)

Sir Belchalot said:


> True as it's filmed in Brazil:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I stand corrected.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 23, 2020)

> British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has urged British people to stay indoors.
> 
> He said that people should only leave their homes for basic necessities; one form of exercise a day; any medical need to provide care or help a vulnerable person and to travel to or from work.
> 
> ...











						WHO warns Covid-19 pandemic is 'accelerating'
					

The World Health Organization's Response Envoy for Covid-19 says the world is not acting quickly enough to get on top of it - follow all the latest developments both at home and abroad.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 23, 2020)

fishfinger said:


> It's from the Sun. And it's only the headline. The trucks were allowed to continue on their journey with their cargo intact. No supplies were taken.



Any comment Marty1?


----------



## Septimus Rufiji (Mar 23, 2020)

so I can still go to work but when I get home I have to stay in? What kind of fucked up, witless thinking is that? or is it me that's witless?


----------



## fishfinger (Mar 23, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Any comment Marty1?


He may have read it at Breitbart, which omitted the bit about the trucks being allowed to continue on their way.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 23, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Any comment Marty1?



Yeah, I’ve read the full article (not from The Sun), Macron let the supplies continue the save further embarrassment fwiu.


----------



## emanymton (Mar 23, 2020)

Septimus Rufiji said:


> so I can still go to work but when I get home I have to stay in? What kind of fucked up, witless thinking is that? or is it me that's witless?


It's not you.


----------



## bimble (Mar 23, 2020)

Some detail such as it is 



			https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/874714/Full_guidance_on_staying_at_home_and_away_from_others.pdf


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 23, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Yeah, I’ve read the full article (not from The Sun), Macron let the supplies continue the save further embarrassment fwiu.



So, bollocks.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 23, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> So, bollocks.



Fake news?

I wouldn’t say so based on the article especially when you consider that Macron is a little stunt


----------



## Supine (Mar 23, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Fake news?
> 
> I wouldn’t say so based on the article especially when you consider that Macron is a little stunt



You're absolutely fucking delusional. You got called out on that bollox news story, at least admit it.


----------



## Marty1 (Mar 23, 2020)

Supine said:


> You're absolutely fucking delusional. You got called out on that bollox news story, at least admit it.



Incorrect assumption that you’ve pulled out of your rear end.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 23, 2020)

Saxony has taken 6 Italian covid-19 patients from Italy. 

Italy (if trends continue) will have had twice as many deaths as China by tomorrow. 

USA testing has now established 42,443 confirmed cases.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 23, 2020)

Ranked by New Deaths, UK is now in 6th place.


----------



## editor (Mar 23, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> I’d say so but I’d say it’s a verboten source for here, so - no linky I’m afraid 🤐


Take a week off this thread. The last thing we need is people posting up 'verboten' bullshit. This is a fucking important subject and not one for fake news/made up/unattributed bullshit.


----------



## emanymton (Mar 23, 2020)

bimble said:


> Some detail such as it is
> 
> 
> 
> https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/874714/Full_guidance_on_staying_at_home_and_away_from_others.pdf





> These four reasons are exceptions - even when doing these activities, you should be minimising time spent outside of the home and ensuring you are 2 metres apart from anyone outside of your household.


How exactly are you meant to do that when getting the bus to work?


----------



## little_legs (Mar 23, 2020)

editor said:


> Take a week off this thread. The last thing we need is people posting up 'verboten' bullshit. This is a fucking important subject and not one for fake news/made up/unattributed bullshit.


Thank you.


----------



## elbows (Mar 23, 2020)

22:56 on BBC live updates page: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52000039

The horror 



> *Elderly 'dead and abandoned' in Spanish care homes*
> Soldiers tackling Spain's coronavirus epidemic by disinfecting residential care homes have found a number of elderly people abandoned and left for dead in their beds, the country's defence minister has said.
> The news comes as Spain's death toll from the disease rose from 1,720 on Sunday to 2,182. The total number of confirmed cases has increased to 33,089.
> "The army has seen some totally abandoned elderly people – even some who were dead in their beds,” Margarita Robles told the Ana Rosa TV programme.
> Those responsible would be met with "the full weight of the law", the minister added.


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 23, 2020)

Oh bloody hell 









						Second patient has coronavirus at psychiatric hospital
					

SEATTLE (AP) — A second patient at Washington state's largest psychiatric hospital has tested positive for the new coronavirus. The Western State Hospital patient was on a different ward...




					apnews.com


----------



## DaveCinzano (Mar 24, 2020)

Aw crap - Nepal is reporting a second case  

Until recently it was the only country ‘highlighted in green’ (that is “all cases have recovered from the infection”) since there were new cases detected in Gibraltar.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 24, 2020)




----------



## pesh (Mar 24, 2020)

more good news...








						CDC says coronavirus RNA found in Princess Cruise ship cabins up to 17 days after passengers left
					

Traces of the coronavirus were found up to 17 days after passengers disembarked the Diamond Princess cruise ship, surviving far longer on surfaces than previous research has shown, according to new data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## a_chap (Mar 24, 2020)

Very interesting example of simple data modelling of C19 deaths in the US




No hyperbole, but still very shocking.


----------



## zahir (Mar 24, 2020)

.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 24, 2020)

Spain, elderly people found dead and abandoned in care homes.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 24, 2020)

Some updates from China from the BBC










						Coronavirus: China and the virus that threatens everything
					

With the country reeling from the massive public health disaster, what might it mean for the economy, society and those in power?



					www.bbc.co.uk
				












						Coronavirus: Wuhan to ease lockdown as world battles pandemic
					

The lockdown in the Chinese city where the outbreak began will be partially lifted next month.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Maltin (Mar 24, 2020)

S☼I said:


> The 233 number for Italy and UK finally lifted from Urban and stuck on the news


That 233 figure was from 2 days ago (now 3). Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but interesting to me that 2 days later, deaths in Italy had increased to 463 (631 after 3 days), a 99% increase. The number of deaths in the UK yesterday was 335, a 44% increase. The number of deaths is still worrying and will increase but hopefully some hope that the UK growth rate is currently a lot lower. The number of deaths in the UK in the last 3 days has been fairly stable around 50 per day. Will be interesting to see whether that trend continues when the updated numbers are published later today or we see the large increase in numbers seen in Italy and Spain.


----------



## David Clapson (Mar 24, 2020)

These numbers don't tell you much. Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more


----------



## Maltin (Mar 24, 2020)

David Clapson said:


> These numbers don't tell you much. Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more


This is true but I feel it is still useful to consider them. The 233 was given as some claim that we were exactly 2 weeks behind Italy and on the same trajectory and was just trying to point out that this may not be the case but accept the case that there are multiple factors involved, the data is not accurate and subject to differences in reporting and also lags behind what is currently happening.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 24, 2020)

No surprise really

*Japan asks for Olympics postponement*
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has asked for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics to be postponed by a year because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Abe said he has agreed the delay with International Olympic Committee (IOC) President Thomas Bach following talks earlier on Tuesday.
BBC sports editor Dan Roan says the IOC's Executive Board will approve the delay this afternoon.


----------



## editor (Mar 24, 2020)

Listen to this pile of excrement who thinks he's some sort of hero



> As Donald Trump pushed to re-open the US economy in weeks, rather than months, the lieutenant governor of Texas went on Fox News to argue that he would rather die than see public health measures damage the US economy, and that he believed “lots of grandparents” across the country would agree with him.
> 
> “My message: let’s get back to work, let’s get back to living, let’s be smart about it, and those of us who are 70-plus, we’ll take care of ourselves,” Lt Gov Dan Patrick, a 69-year-old Republican, told Fox News host Tucker Carlson on Monday night.
> 
> ...











						Older people would rather die than let Covid-19 harm US economy – Texas official
					

Lieutenant governor Dan Patrick tells Fox News: ‘Do we have to shut down the entire country for this? I think we can get back to work’




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Lucy Fur (Mar 24, 2020)

So in France, after just over a week of semi lockdown, (allowed out for essential work, visit sick relatives, food shopping, exercise), the feeling is that it is still not enough for containment. Macron is making a statement at 8 tonight, with tighter restrictions and heavier fines expected. For exercise, you can have 1 hour within 1KM of your house. It's thought you will now need to include the time you left your house on the form now. Also if your work is essential, it needs another form from your boss stating this, and this needs to be renewed daily.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 24, 2020)

Somewhere, it may have been on here, I saw a chart of infections stemming from one person and multiplying out into a great pyramid of infections. 

It showed graphically how many infections one could save by just preventing infection from just one person. 

Did anyone else see that and can point me to it?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 24, 2020)

Lucy Fur said:


> So in France, after just over a week of semi lockdown, (allowed out for essential work, visit sick relatives, food shopping, exercise), the feeling is that it is still not enough for containment. Macron is making a statement at 8 tonight, with tighter restrictions and heavier fines expected. For exercise, you can have 1 hour within 1KM of your house. It's thought you will now need to include the time you left your house on the form now. Also if your work is essential, it needs another form from your boss stating this, and this needs to be renewed daily.


I think this is coming for the UK. At the moment because of unclear communications thousands of companies are still working and their staff are still taking risks with either being infected or infecting others. 

Pathways of infection will continue while people are still going to work, and I would doubt more than 30-40% of employees can work at home. 

I expect the UK to say only those in essential occupations are to go to work - quite soon.


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 24, 2020)

Fucckkk 









						Expert warns of 'disaster' in coronavirus-hit Iran
					

Iran reported 1,934 deaths from coronavirus - Anadolu Agency




					www.aa.com.tr


----------



## prunus (Mar 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Somewhere, it may have been on here, I saw a chart of infections stemming from one person and multiplying out into a great pyramid of infections.
> 
> It showed graphically how many infections one could save by just preventing infection from just one person.
> 
> Did anyone else see that and can point me to it?



This?


----------



## Maltin (Mar 24, 2020)

Maltin said:


> That 233 figure was from 2 days ago (now 3). Not sure if mentioned elsewhere here but interesting to me that 2 days later, deaths in Italy had increased to 463 (631 after 3 days), a 99% increase. The number of deaths in the UK yesterday was 335, a 44% increase. The number of deaths is still worrying and will increase but hopefully some hope that the UK growth rate is currently a lot lower. The number of deaths in the UK in the last 3 days has been fairly stable around 50 per day. Will be interesting to see whether that trend continues when the updated numbers are published later today or we see the large increase in numbers seen in Italy and Spain.


87 more deaths reported in the UK bringing total to 422. Not as large an increase as seen in Spain or Italy but still concerning (81% increase over the last 3 days compared to 171% in Italy from when they were at 233 deaths).


----------



## Lucy Fur (Mar 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I think this is coming for the UK. At the moment because of unclear communications thousands of companies are still working and their staff are still taking risks with either being infected or infecting others.
> 
> Pathways of infection will continue while people are still going to work, and I would doubt more than 30-40% of employees can work at home.
> 
> I expect the UK to say only those in essential occupations are to go to work - quite soon.


Absolutely agree, the government must come down and explicitly define 'essential' . The current guidelines are woefully vague.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Somewhere, it may have been on here, I saw a chart of infections stemming from one person and multiplying out into a great pyramid of infections.
> 
> It showed graphically how many infections one could save by just preventing infection from just one person.
> 
> Did anyone else see that and can point me to it?


This?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 24, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> This?


Yes, it was like that (very like) but it didn't have the bus business


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes, it was like that (very like) but it didn't have the bus business


Possibly the one a couple of posts above it then?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 24, 2020)

prunus said:


> This?
> 
> View attachment 203143


Yup, that was the one, I like it .. they should show it on TV!


----------



## little_legs (Mar 24, 2020)

Italy has just reported a jump of 743 deaths in the past day, bringing its death toll up to 6,820. This comes after two days of the number falling.


----------



## RTWL (Mar 24, 2020)

oh shit yer.... Covid-19 was detected in Syria, Gaza and Afghanistan over the weekend. Now in the current climate where America are increasing sanction on Iran...this is going to be a horror show. 



> In Gaza, the first two coronavirus cases were announced Saturday. Authorities have shut down restaurants and cafes and suspended Friday prayers as residents fear an outbreak will further cripple a health system already suffering from Israel’s blockade, which causes constant shortages of medicine and poor sanitation services. With a population of over 1.8 million people, the besieged Gaza Strip is also one of the most densely populated places on Earth and has often been called an “open-air prison.”
> 
> 
> Meanwhile, shelter-in-place orders were announced in the occupied West Bank, where around 60 cases have been reported.
> ...


----------



## Flavour (Mar 24, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Italy has just reported a jump of 743 deaths in the past day, bringing its death toll up to 6,820. This comes after two days of the number falling.



fucks sake. just as i was beginning to dare to feel a tiny bit of optimism


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 24, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Italy has just reported a jump of 743 deaths in the past day, bringing its death toll up to 6,820. This comes after two days of the number falling.



That's 113 deaths per million people, compared with China at 2, UK on 6, Spain on 60.


----------



## agricola (Mar 24, 2020)

RTWL said:


> oh shit yer.... Covid-19 was detected in Syria, Gaza and Afghanistan over the weekend. Now in the current climate where America are increasing sanction on Iran...this is going to be a horror show.



For all the talk of "second wave" of this virus and what happened in 1918-19, its somewhere like Gaza - with a younger population that is already pretty cordoned off from the outside world but is living in really close proximity to each other - that is the perfect place for this virus to mutate to a much more deadly form.  

They really have to be helped now or this time is going to be one that is looked back fondly upon in a few years.


----------



## a_chap (Mar 24, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> That's 113 deaths per million people, compared with China at 2, UK on 6, Spain on 60.



Not as bad as San Marino with 619 deaths per 1 million population


----------



## RTWL (Mar 24, 2020)

agricola said:


> For all the talk of "second wave" of this virus and what happened in 1918-19, its somewhere like Gaza - with a younger population that is already pretty cordoned off from the outside world but is living in really close proximity to each other - that is the perfect place for this virus to mutate to a much more deadly form.
> 
> They really have to be helped now or this time is going to be one that is looked back fondly upon in a few years.



Israel will continue to block medical aid .


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 24, 2020)

RTWL said:


> Israel will continue to block medical aid .



It will save them spending on ordinance to periodically “mow the lawn”.


----------



## agricola (Mar 24, 2020)

RTWL said:


> Israel will continue to block medical aid .



I'd have hoped not - if they do block it and it does mutate, the IDF are going to get it first.


----------



## RTWL (Mar 24, 2020)

António Guterres is calling for a cease fire(global). I will eat my own feet if that happens.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 24, 2020)

a_chap said:


> Not as bad as San Marino with 619 deaths per 1 million population



Hardly a comparison, considering it's a 'micro-nation' of just over 33,000 people, totally surrounded by Italy.


----------



## RTWL (Mar 24, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> “mow the lawn”



:/ -  Is that the actual phrase they use ?

Edit . Just checked
Yes ... it is isnt it !


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 24, 2020)

RTWL said:


> :/ -  Is that the actual phrase they use ?












						Bennett implies IDF should 'mow the lawn' in Gaza
					

In remarks made at annual security conference hosted in IDC Herzliya college, Bayit Yehudi leader warns that failure to deal with Hamas today, as Israel seeks to 'buy time' in pursuit of ceasefire talks, means meeting 'an even bigger enemy' later.




					www.ynetnews.com


----------



## RTWL (Mar 24, 2020)

That does not increase my confidence in their ability to allow medical aid through .


----------



## RTWL (Mar 24, 2020)

> An Israeli rights group said late Monday that the spread of the novel coronavirus in Gaza would be a “massive disaster” due to the blockade imposed by Israel.
> 
> The healthcare system in the Gaza Strip was already on the brink of collapse even before receiving its first coronavirus patient.











						Israeli group warns of disaster in Gaza from COVID-19
					

B’Tselem says Israel has paralyzed healthcare system in Gaza and is responsible for health of its two million inhabitants - Anadolu Agency




					www.aa.com.tr


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 24, 2020)

It's shit in Europe & North America, but nowt like it's going to be in Africa, Middle East & South America.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 24, 2020)

I am hearing that India is instituting some kind of lockdown, with only 10 notified deaths so far they obviously see the potential of the virus and want to act promptly. Hopefully they can starve the virus of hosts, it will be interesting to see, hope they succeed.


----------



## bimble (Mar 24, 2020)

India right now is people panicking running to try to buy food because the pm did not say anything in that speech about essentials still being available during this 21 day lockdown.
One year imprisonment for not complying.
It’s going to be impossible. Huge proportion of people are day labourers . No mention of how they are supposed to eat. 
They have right now a real fascist government with big para military wing and their own agenda. Terrifying tbh.


----------



## donkyboy (Mar 24, 2020)

Real time tracking of the virus numbers below:









						Coronavirus Dashboard
					

Live coronavirus dashboard tracker. See real-time data, social media trends, and learn about prevention measures.




					coronaworld.eu


----------



## weltweit (Mar 24, 2020)

donkyboy said:


> Real time tracking of the virus numbers below:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It is pretty much the same information that is on: 








						Coronavirus Update (Live): 123,838,954 Cases and 2,727,153 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				



But on worldometers you can sort the data by whichever column you want.


----------



## elbows (Mar 24, 2020)

agricola said:


> For all the talk of "second wave" of this virus and what happened in 1918-19, its somewhere like Gaza - with a younger population that is already pretty cordoned off from the outside world but is living in really close proximity to each other - that is the perfect place for this virus to mutate to a much more deadly form.
> 
> They really have to be helped now or this time is going to be one that is looked back fondly upon in a few years.



No. There are reasons to be concerned for Gaza, but it being more likely to be a source of mutations is not one of them. The mutation stuff is a pandemic cliche anyway, one with aspects of truth, but simplified and exaggerated over decades. The underlying truths sadly end up supporting layers of absolute humbug.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 24, 2020)

Well Italy now stands at 6820 deaths this means that more than twice the deaths in the whole of China have now occurred in Italy.

And Spain up 489 today to 2800 is fast following Italy.

Europe really is a basket case at the moment.

I think we desperately need to learn the lessons from China.


----------



## xes (Mar 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well Italy now stands at 6820 deaths this means that more than twice the deaths in the whole of China have now occurred in Italy.
> 
> And Spain up 489 today to 2800 is fast following Italy.
> 
> ...


I think the numbers from China are iffy at best. Just from the amount of time the cremation furnaces were running. The videos from January and the response, do not match the numbers.


----------



## elbows (Mar 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well Italy now stands at 6820 deaths this means that more than twice the deaths in the whole of China have now occurred in Italy.
> 
> And Spain up 489 today to 2800 is fast following Italy.
> 
> ...



There can easily be 10 days-3 weeks lag between actions we do now to slow the spread/reduce transmission, and starting to see the results in various bits of data.

So even with somewhere like Italy which is well ahead of us, they are only just entering the period where they hope to see changes in the data, first in one sort of data (eg cases) then later in another (deaths). And even when these periods are entered, sometimes need to wait a while to gather enough of that data to see trends clearly and unmistakably.

So we cannot yet judge whether the impact that measures taken by the likes of Italy in the past are enough, or whether they need to go still further.


----------



## donkyboy (Mar 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I think we desperately need to learn the lessons from China.




its easy when you are a one party state to enforce rules and crack down hard on rule breakers. dont obey and you disappear...


----------



## weltweit (Mar 24, 2020)

donkyboy said:


> its easy when you are a one party state to enforce rules and crack down hard on rule breakers. dont obey and you disappear...


It wasn't just rules, although they did establish social isolation quickly, once the seriousness of the situation was apparent, they threw massive resources at defeating this virus, they imported masses of medics into Hubei, the army built two massive hospitals giving them an extra 2500 beds, they vigorously contact traced (I believe), they tested a lot, and they deployed volumes of ventilators and blood oxygenation machines into Wuhan and Hubei.


----------



## donkyboy (Mar 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> It wasn't just rules, although they did establish social isolation quickly, once the seriousness of the situation was apparent, they threw massive resources at defeating this virus, they imported masses of medics into Hubei, the army built two massive hospitals giving them an extra 2500 beds, they vigorously contact traced (I believe), they tested a lot, and they deployed volumes of ventilators and blood oxygenation machines into Wuhan and Hubei.



try building temporary hospitals here without planning permission first and no health and safety regulations. the chinese bussed in workers from all over china who worked through the night. never gonna happen in the west.


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 24, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well Italy now stands at 6820 deaths this means that more than twice the deaths in the whole of China have now occurred in Italy.
> 
> And Spain up 489 today to 2800 is fast following Italy.
> 
> ...



Mass surveillance, overwhelming dictatorship and locking the infected away in unsafe hospitals?

It's easy to fix a pandemic when your a brutal regime led by murderers.


----------



## MrSki (Mar 24, 2020)

Sorry not read the whole thread but have we had this yet?


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 24, 2020)

elbows said:


> No. There are reasons to be concerned for Gaza, but it being more likely to be a source of mutations is not one of them. The mutation stuff is a pandemic cliche anyway, one with aspects of truth, but simplified and exaggerated over decades. The underlying truths sadly end up supporting layers of absolute humbug.


Mutations are as the name implies... mutations. They can happen anywhere and anytime. Geography doesn't dictate it. (not arguing with you)


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 24, 2020)

xes said:


> I think the numbers from China are iffy at best. Just from the amount of time the cremation furnaces were running. The videos from January and the response, do not match the numbers.


I believe the numbers from China like I believe... something else I don't believe. They just don't add up (in my mind).


----------



## xes (Mar 24, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> I believe the numbers from China like I believe... something else I don't believe. They just don't add up (in my mind).


Not even close to it unfortunately. We'll soon find out to what extent they covered it up, I guess. I've seen crazy numbers taken from how many mobile numbers have been switched off since it began. But there could be several reasons for numbers like that. (14 and half million near enough)


----------



## zahir (Mar 24, 2020)

Enforcement of the lockdown in Greece:









						More than 766 lockdown violations across Greece in the first 36 hours - Keep Talking Greece
					

Systematic checks conducted by the Greek Police on the first 36 hours of the total lockdown found th




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## mauvais (Mar 24, 2020)

elbows said:


> There can easily be 10 days-3 weeks lag between actions we do now to slow the spread/reduce transmission, and starting to see the results in various bits of data.
> 
> So even with somewhere like Italy which is well ahead of us, they are only just entering the period where they hope to see changes in the data, first in one sort of data (eg cases) then later in another (deaths). And even when these periods are entered, sometimes need to wait a while to gather enough of that data to see trends clearly and unmistakably.
> 
> So we cannot yet judge whether the impact that measures taken by the likes of Italy in the past are enough, or whether they need to go still further.


Can you explain why three weeks, out of interest?

I understand the individual time delays: symptoms to potential death is about 8 days, and I understand that contact to symptoms (incubation) is maybe 5 days. But are you saying there is some social factor that further delays consequences?

Why can't we look at case numbers (assuming a constant measuring method in a particular country) and get an idea of what's working?


----------



## editor (Mar 24, 2020)

The Citymapper Mobility Index is interesting stuff - it shows the % of city moving compared to usual (based on their own app usage) 

2 weeks ago  London was at 83%, 36% a week ago and 25% yesterday. 
Milan has been stuck at 4% for a week., while Barcelona has gone from 61% to 5% in two weeks. 









						Citymapper Mobility Index comes to an end
					

Read more >



					citymapper.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 24, 2020)

mauvais said:


> Can you explain why three weeks, out of interest?
> 
> I understand the individual time delays: symptoms to potential death is about 8 days, and I understand that contact to symptoms (incubation) is maybe 5 days. But are you saying there is some social factor that further delays consequences?
> 
> Why can't we look at case numbers (assuming a constant measuring method in a particular country) and get an idea of what's working?



I dont know precisely. 3 weeks was the figure the Imperial College report used, and that Johnson likely used as his basis for reviewing UK lockdown measures in 3 weeks. But I'm aware of other sorts of lag in terms of the human view of the epidemics in particular locations, and many of those are more like 2 weeks (or less). So I used a range of somewhere between these.

One reason the period needed to really see the effects is longer than you were expecting may well be because the effects may not be expected to be pronounced enough to spot in a single generation of transmission. If you reduce things so that one person is now more likely to infect one and a quarter other people after lockdown than 2 and a half other people with no lockdown, that makes a really large difference after multiple generations of transmission, but it looks like quite a small effect at the start. Especially since in countries under terrible pressure from this virus already, it may only be serious cases they are detecting, and those cases only make up a small fraction of total infections. So our view of trends is further limited, making it even more likely we have to wait for bigger effects to happen before we can accurately spot them and their new trajectories.


----------



## 2hats (Mar 24, 2020)

mauvais said:


> Can you explain why three weeks, out of interest?


Up to 14 days to develop symptoms from time of exposure, followed by around 7 days to realise whether you are in deep shit or not.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 24, 2020)

Obviously there are major differences between countries in terms of both their testing policies and their reporting, but Germany is developing into an interesting outlier potentially. If figures are correct (and the initial figures are being revised, I've noticed), they've now reported a massive number of recoveries such that the massive rise in current cases may be levelling out, perhaps, while the reported deaths remain relatively tiny.

The stats are puzzling at the moment. Germany may not be hurtling towards Italy-style disaster, but S Korea-style containment.

Am I right in saying that Germany and S Korea have done far more tests than other places? It appears the Germans may have learned the lessons quicker than others, and that the message should be test test test.


----------



## Azrael (Mar 24, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Obviously there are major differences between countries in terms of both their testing policies and their reporting, but Germany is developing into an interesting outlier potentially. If figures are correct (and the initial figures are being revised, I've noticed), they've now reported a massive number of recoveries such that the massive rise in current cases may be levelling out, perhaps, while the reported deaths remain relatively tiny.
> 
> The stats are puzzling at the moment. Germany may not be hurtling towards Italy-style disaster, but S Korea-style containment.
> 
> Am I right in saying that Germany and S Korea have done far more tests than other places? It appears the Germans may have learned the lessons quicker than others, and that the message should be test test test.


Believe so. Would also love to know what Germany's using in her antiviral cocktail: the South Korean protocol's been public knowledge for weeks, but incredibly hard to find info from Germany. Lots of talk about her astronomical number of ventilators, but she was reporting very few critical cases, making that something of a red herring (while being vital as a backup). If it's not early detection and drugs, along with everyone else, desperate to know what it is.


----------



## agricola (Mar 24, 2020)

xes said:


> Not even close to it unfortunately. We'll soon find out to what extent they covered it up, I guess. I've seen crazy numbers taken from how many mobile numbers have been switched off since it began. But there could be several reasons for numbers like that. (14 and half million near enough)


----------



## agricola (Mar 24, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Believe so. Would also love to know what Germany's using in her antiviral cocktail: the South Korean protocol's been public knowledge for weeks, but incredibly hard to find info from Germany. Lots of talk about her astronomical number of ventilators, but she was reporting very few critical cases, making that something of a red herring (while being vital as a backup). If it's not early detection and drugs, along with everyone else, desperate to know what it is.



if its sauerkraut and kimchi there is going to be so much flatulence in the world for the next decade


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 24, 2020)

agricola said:


>


It does seem very tinfoil hatty but those numbers from China just don't add up. One of the most densely populated places on the planet, and the virus suddenly decided to stop... I think not. Far more likely that the Chinese Government decided that that's the official stance.


----------



## Azrael (Mar 24, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> It does seem very tinfoil hatty but those numbers from China just don't add up. One of the most densely populated places on the planet, and the virus suddenly decided to stop... I think not. Far more likely that the Chinese Government decided that that's the official stance.


It didn't "just stop", Beijing threw every resource of the Chinese state into suppressing it, breaking the infection chains with lockdowns, contact tracing and quarantine until it was starved of hosts. This approach eliminated SARS in the general population back in 2004. It's too early to say it they've succeeded, but it's at least possible, and has worked before.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 25, 2020)

Azrael said:


> It didn't "just stop", Beijing threw every resource of the Chinese state into suppressing it, breaking the infection chains with lockdowns, contact tracing and quarantine until it was starved of hosts. This approach eliminated SARS in the general population back in 2004. It's too early to say it they've succeeded, but it's at least possible, and has worked before.


I still don't believe the figures. With a population density so high, (I reckon) it would be impossible to contain it within such a short time.


----------



## Proper Tidy (Mar 25, 2020)

I dunno about the science stuff but while china has a massive population it's also a massive place, it's population density is well below UK


----------



## Azrael (Mar 25, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> I still don't believe the figures. With a population density so high, (I reckon) it would be impossible to contain it within such a short time.


It didn't infect all of China equally: it was mostly contained in Wuhan and Hubei Province, which are much lower numbers. Rest of China got aggressive quarantine measures imposed early, drastically limiting its ability to spread.

We can see similar dynamics in other Asian countries that're open societies, with Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore preventing outbreaks, and South Korea reversing one.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Mar 25, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> It does seem very tinfoil hatty but those numbers from China just don't add up. One of the most densely populated places on the planet, and the virus suddenly decided to stop... I think not. Far more likely that the Chinese Government decided that that's the official stance.



Jesus. Would it make you feel better if that was true in some way? 

They have not decided it's their _official stance_. I have never seen anything more serious than the controls here right now. It's really quite insulting to what the people of China have gone through in the last eight weeks to suggest the virus "just decided to stop". 

This is the result of lockdowns, contact tracing, and shit loads of testing.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 25, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Jesus. Would it make you feel better if that was true in some way?
> 
> They have not decided it's their _official stance_. I have never seen anything more serious than the controls here right now. It's really quite insulting to what the people of China have gone through in the last eight weeks to suggest the virus "just decided to stop".
> 
> This is the result of lockdowns, contact tracing, and shit loads of testing.


Fine... I'll reserve judgement until...


----------



## Azrael (Mar 25, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Jesus. Would it make you feel better if that was true in some way?
> 
> They have not decided it's their _official stance_. I have never seen anything more serious than the controls here right now. It's really quite insulting to what the people of China have gone through in the last eight weeks to suggest the virus "just decided to stop".
> 
> This is the result of lockdowns, contact tracing, and shit loads of testing.


Exactly, and it's been repeated in multiple countries with a variety of political systems. It's simply not credible that all are cooking the books. These methods have, to date, been far more successful than the West's woeful response. Who knows what the future holds, but we must do all we can to try and suppress Covid-19.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 25, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Jesus. Would it make you feel better if that was true in some way?


Not even remotely.


----------



## elbows (Mar 25, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Obviously there are major differences between countries in terms of both their testing policies and their reporting, but Germany is developing into an interesting outlier potentially. If figures are correct (and the initial figures are being revised, I've noticed), they've now reported a massive number of recoveries such that the massive rise in current cases may be levelling out, perhaps, while the reported deaths remain relatively tiny.
> 
> The stats are puzzling at the moment. Germany may not be hurtling towards Italy-style disaster, but S Korea-style containment.
> 
> Am I right in saying that Germany and S Korea have done far more tests than other places? It appears the Germans may have learned the lessons quicker than others, and that the message should be test test test.



I'm not reading that into the numbers from Germany at this time. I can see why they are of interest, but its still just too soon for me. Clearly some of the differences in numbers are down to a different testing regime, but I'm still expecting to see number of deaths increasingly heading in the wrong direction there. Still, their total numbers could end up quite different eventually, especially if they got closer to keeping things within the limits of their hospital/temporary hospital capacity, and yet more effect if they do a great job of limiting spread within institutions. But its not even possible for me to make claims about Germany in those areas yet, they might just be a bit further behind in their epidemic.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 25, 2020)

Breakdown by country


----------



## little_legs (Mar 25, 2020)

Breakdown by cities/regions


----------



## elbows (Mar 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> They need to be very careful. Following Trump ‘s lie about chloroquine being approved by the FDA a few days ago people have become terribly ill. It’s very easy to overdose on chloroquine.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Especially if you use a version intended for treating fish.









						Coronavirus: Man dies taking fish tank cleaner as virus drug
					

Health officials are warning people not to self-medicate with the common malaria drug.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 25, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> It does seem very tinfoil hatty but those numbers from China just don't add up. One of the most densely populated places on the planet, and the virus suddenly decided to stop... I think not. Far more likely that the Chinese Government decided that that's the official stance.



China does seem to have done a very good job at containing the outbreak, and it had the state apparatus to do so - at one point, there were reportedly 18,000 people working on contact tracing in Wuhan alone. 

But telling the truth and protecting the lives of those it considers undesirable aren't exactly the regime's strong points so it's right to be skeptical of any official figures from China - I wouldn't be surprised if it eventually emerged that the outbreak had killed more people in the labour camps of Xinjiang than in the rest of China put together.


----------



## maomao (Mar 25, 2020)

Proper Tidy said:


> I dunno about the science stuff but while china has a massive population it's also a massive place, it's population density is well below UK


Masses of uninhabitable or sparsely inhabited desert though. Hubei is higher density than UK (305 to 274 people per square km) and it's only the twelfth most densely poplated province/municipality in China. Tibet is huge and has less then two and a half people per square km.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 25, 2020)

donkyboy said:


> try building temporary hospitals here without planning permission first and no health and safety regulations. the chinese bussed in workers from all over china who worked through the night. never gonna happen in the west.



There's different ways of doing things, they are converting the Excel Centre in London into the Nightingale Hospital, and will have 500 beds available 'within days', and plans to extend to 4,000 beds if required.

And, of course, they are taking over private hospital, that's an 8,000 extra beds nationwide.


----------



## xes (Mar 25, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> It does seem very tinfoil hatty but those numbers from China just don't add up. One of the most densely populated places on the planet, and the virus suddenly decided to stop... I think not. Far more likely that the Chinese Government decided that that's the official stance.


It does seem very tin hatty, but you can look at the numbers on the mobile networks for yourself. Could be anyone who took pictures or videos pretty sure they were getting arrested and having their phones taken of them. Muslims that are being rounded up and taken into camps, the deaths or a combination. But look at the mobile networks' data, there has never been such a drastic drop in users. Over the 3 main networks. 

Do I think there's millions dead? Maybe 1, 2 maybe not. Definitely more than a few hundred thousand.


----------



## bimble (Mar 25, 2020)

The situation in India right now is so frightening, not the virus the measures to stop it. After decree of 3 week lockdown last night, huge crowds jostling to buy what food they could before midnight yesterday. Mind just can’t take in the consequences of it. Vague assurances from the gov that there will somehow be rations to feed everyone who can’t work.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 25, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Breakdown by country


Hmm, Italy have had more than double the deaths than China have had in total.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 25, 2020)

xes said:


> I think the numbers from China are iffy at best. Just from the amount of time the cremation furnaces were running. The videos from January and the response, do not match the numbers.


The WHO sent a team to China to investigate this and other issues and they declared that they trusted Chinese numbers.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 25, 2020)

donkyboy said:


> try building temporary hospitals here without planning permission first and no health and safety regulations. the chinese bussed in workers from all over china who worked through the night. never gonna happen in the west.


We have relaxed delivery regulations at supermarkets and relaxed driver hours to enable more deliveries. 
I expect we have done the same to enable more PPE distribution to hospitals. 
We have involved the army to establish a field hospital at a London exhibition centre. 
We have established stay at home rules and given the police new powers to break up gatherings of more than 2 people. 
Probably we are looking at converting the NEC into a field hospital for the Birmingham area. 

What I think we have abandoned is contact tracing, testing and isolation - probably because we simply don't have the manpower to continue at this stage. My understanding is that there were tens of thousands of people in China involved in this.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 25, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> I believe the numbers from China like I believe... something else I don't believe. They just don't add up (in my mind).


What do you think of the WHO monitoring team that visited China and approved of their CV-19 regime?


----------



## xes (Mar 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The WHO sent a team to China to investigate this and other issues and they declared that they trusted Chinese numbers.


I'm sure they did. That doesn't mean a thing. The WHO might have been mislead or even _gasp_ lied to. Those cremation furnaces were running 24/7 when they only usually run 4 hours a night. 4 hours on a busy night = approx 300 people cremated.  They were going 24/7 and screaming out for help for a good month or so. You can believe what ever you like. But, I don't trust the CCP, and I fear that the death toll for this is going to be utterly catastrophic. Why is the Italy death toll so much higher in a much shorter time frame?  The infection rate didn't match any of the models, but everyone elses kind of does. Other than Iran, but we've all seen the mass graves from the satellite pictures, and the videos of lots of them being dug/filled. 

You don' have to be bat shit crazy to think that this is much worse than China let on. (I don't know if places like Japan have covered up the extent of the outbreak either, but it's plausible.)


----------



## existentialist (Mar 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> What do you think of the WHO monitoring team that visited China and approved of their CV-19 regime?


I've no skin in this game, but it wouldn't be the first time an international body had the wool pulled over their eyes by a national government.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 25, 2020)

Coronavirus: Spanish army finds care home residents 'dead and abandoned'
					

An inquiry is launched after soldiers discover elderly coronavirus victims "dead in their beds".



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> What do you think of the WHO monitoring team that visited China and approved of their CV-19 regime?



I'm sure they got the most accurate picture they could determine from visiting five cities and meeting government officials. But if the Chinese government wanted to conceal anything from them, it doesn't sound like  it would have been difficult.


----------



## bimble (Mar 25, 2020)

China did expel a bunch of american journalists last week didn't they. Not great timing if your priority is to show how open you are with your information.


----------



## redsquirrel (Mar 25, 2020)

Besides any active concealment there's also the simple fact that different governments will report information in slightly different ways. How is a death due to COVID-19 being defined?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 25, 2020)

xes said:


> ..
> Those cremation furnaces were running 24/7 when they only usually run 4 hours a night. 4 hours on a busy night = approx 300 people cremated.  They were going 24/7 and screaming out for help for a good month or so.
> ..


What is your source for this?


----------



## mauvais (Mar 25, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Obviously there are major differences between countries in terms of both their testing policies and their reporting, but Germany is developing into an interesting outlier potentially. If figures are correct (and the initial figures are being revised, I've noticed), they've now reported a massive number of recoveries such that the massive rise in current cases may be levelling out, perhaps, while the reported deaths remain relatively tiny.
> 
> The stats are puzzling at the moment. Germany may not be hurtling towards Italy-style disaster, but S Korea-style containment.


It seems to me that German deaths are still accelerating just like everywhere else, only slower.

I wonder if the apparently economically distributed nature of Germany is a factor.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hmm, Italy have had more than double the deaths than China have had in total.


The numbers from China and Iran are not entirely credible. Same applies to Russia, zero dead in Russia if you believe its government's reporting.


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 25, 2020)

Not sure this will work if I’m honest China sued for $20 trillion for the coronavirus outbreak


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 25, 2020)

Pretty heartbreaking this 'As if we were the disease': coronavirus brings prejudice for Italy's Chinese workers


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 25, 2020)

I had this on my mind when I happened upon a Chinese supermarket in town on Saturday and went in for seaweed and shitake mushrooms - grim times ...


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 25, 2020)

mauvais said:


> It seems to me that German deaths are still accelerating just like everywhere else, only slower.
> 
> I wonder if the apparently economically distributed nature of Germany is a factor.


Way slower. We can't know the comparative actual infection rates, of course -  the UK's real infection rate is probably higher than Germany's, for instance, so the official figures don't mean much. But S Korea and China have got on top of this without mass deaths (let's take China's figure at face value for now, and Korea has got on top of it with hardly any deaths), so we know that is something that can be done, even in places with megacities.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its not just New York either.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




I don’t have any idea of how indicative this is but everyone I know over there went into voluntary lockdown about 7-10 days ago.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I don’t have any idea of how indicative this is but everyone I know over there went into voluntary lockdown about 7-10 days ago.


One of the effects of Trump's presidency has been the assertion by many states of their own autonomy. We've seen it over climate change, and we're seeing it again here, thank fuck.


----------



## mauvais (Mar 25, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Way slower. We can't know the comparative actual infection rates, of course -  the UK's real infection rate is probably higher than Germany's, for instance, so the official figures don't mean much. But S Korea and China have got on top of this without mass deaths (let's take China's figure at face value for now, and Korea has got on top of it with hardly any deaths), so we know that is something that can be done, even in places with megacities.


In terms of deaths, I'm not even sure it is way slower. The UK had its first deaths (two) on 5th March, then none/ones/twos for a bit, until the 14th March where it began to snowball. Germany had its first (two) on 10th March, then unpredictable numbers until recently. However its death rate yesterday (36) is roughly where the UK was five days ago (40). I think you should probably expect it to ultimately follow the same pattern, which is the guidance given by German authorities too.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 25, 2020)

mauvais said:


> In terms of deaths, I'm not even sure it is way slower. The UK had its first deaths (two) on 5th March, then none/ones/twos for a bit, until the 14th March where it began to snowball. Germany had its first (two) on 10th March, then unpredictable numbers until recently. However its death rate yesterday (36) is roughly where the UK was five days ago (40). I think you should probably expect it to ultimately follow the same pattern, which is the guidance given by German authorities too.


The difference is that they are now reporting recoveries. That's where the pattern diverges atm, as it indicates moving into a more mature phase. But yes, too early to be massively optimistic.


----------



## mauvais (Mar 25, 2020)

We may have a much better idea when the numbers for today come in.

I think from today or tomorrow it's going to be particularly grim news for the UK and USA, unfortunately. I suspect both are now in the exponential growth phase.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 25, 2020)

Poland increased lock down measures yesterday. 

Go outside for necessities only. Shops/pharmacy/work if you have to (that's the same. 

Difference now is out in groups of only 2. No gatherings of any kind at outside immediate family (it was never explicitly stated).

Walking outside of "exercise" is left ambiguous. But children's playgrounds are now explicitly stated as out of bounds as have most national parks and forests.

People have still been going to visit each other, clearly. 

I'm miffed because I'm now 10 days without leaving the house and was going to reward myself on day 14 with a walk. 

I'm now not sure if I'm allowed to do that.


----------



## 2hats (Mar 25, 2020)

Curiously the Dutch Institute of Health has just claimed that the country has managed to end the exponential growth phase. Not convinced yet that this isn't simply a statistical hiccup and might be a little premature.


----------



## T & P (Mar 25, 2020)

2hats said:


> Curiously the Dutch Institute of Health has just claimed that the country has managed to end the exponential growth phase. Not convinced yet that this isn't simply a statistical hiccup and might be a little premature.


Please, let the answer to that be 'weed'.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 25, 2020)

They weed on people?


----------



## xes (Mar 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> What is your source for this?


There were plenty of videos at the time with interviews with funeral home staff. A few tabloid ran with it too. At work at the moment I'll see what I can dig up later when I get home.


----------



## xes (Mar 25, 2020)

'At the time' shit, that was only about 6 weeks ago.


----------



## elbows (Mar 25, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> The difference is that they are now reporting recoveries. That's where the pattern diverges atm, as it indicates moving into a more mature phase. But yes, too early to be massively optimistic.



I dont really understand what you are reading into the recovery numbers. Time passed so many of the cases got to the point where they can be classed as recovered. What does it actually indicate apart from that?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> I dont really understand what you are reading into the recovery numbers. Time passed so many of the cases got to the point where they can be classed as recovered. What does it actually indicate apart from that?


That that amount of time has passed with only that amount of deaths. It's a crucial part of working out where the peak is likely to come.


----------



## 2hats (Mar 25, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> That that amount of time has passed with only that amount of deaths. It's a crucial part of working out where the peak is likely to come.


Fergusson was live on BBC Parliament channel earlier talking to the Live Global Disease Outbreak Committee. Expecting peak in London in around 2-2.5 weeks with some 5-10% of the local population infected.


----------



## elbows (Mar 25, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> That that amount of time has passed with only that amount of deaths. It's a crucial part of working out where the peak is likely to come.



No, I dont see that. When I look at the recovered stats, the only remarkable thing I see is that they werent really reporting many of these at all, and then suddenly they reported several thousand of them. Probably a reporting issue, or a timing issue, or something to do with how they define recovered.

Most of the patterns I see in Germany are similar to elsewhere, with some differences based on their extensive testing regime. Also of note is the age of confirmed cases, likely another indicator that their testing regime was very different. A difference that I would certainly expect to have an effect on the stats for number of those cases recovered. As time goes on and Germany sees more severe and older cases in hospital, I would expect many of their stats to end up looking more like other countries.

Some info from a day or two including age ranges etc here:



			https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-03-24-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 25, 2020)

Thanks for that. Median age 47. I take it the median age here would be much higher?


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 25, 2020)

Apologies if this has already been posted.










						Satellite images show Iran has built mass graves amid coronavirus outbreak
					

Trenches in city of Qom confirm worst fears about extent of the epidemic and the government’s subsequent cover-up




					www.theguardian.com
				







			https://www.washingtonpost.com/gdpr-consent/?next_url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.washingtonpost.com%2fgraphics%2f2020%2fworld%2firan-coronavirus-outbreak-graves%2f


----------



## elbows (Mar 25, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Thanks for that. Median age 47. I take it the median age here would be much higher?



My assumption would be that our median age would be much lower during our initial testing regime (travel and contact tracing) than our subsequent testing regime that mostly picks up people ill enough to be hospitalised. And that Germany had a much larger travel and contact tracing regime, and that their epidemic is some days behind ours so they dont have as many severe hospitalised cases in their data yet. But obviously these are assumptions on my part.

Also if Germany has done a better job of shielding the elderly and vulnerable, of protecting against spread in care homes and hospitals and between hospital staff and patients, then large differences may result over time. Certainly since their epidemic timing seems a little different to ours, and they did a lot of draconian measures sooner than we did, it seems plausible that they got a head-start on intervention compared to us too, and this would be expected to reduce the overall burden, perhaps significantly. But these are some big if's, Germany may yet end up not looking much different to elsewhere.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 25, 2020)

Arnold Schwarzenegger has donated $1,000,000 to a fund raising money to buy medical supplies for frontline medical workers. The fund is looking to raise $10m so far it is at $3.3m


----------



## elbows (Mar 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Apologies if this has already been posted.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It has. I would not put particular faith in the official Iranian numbers, but these sorts of stories not that illuminating to me and are more a sign of the usual political framing of stories.

It would be one thing if they tried to estimate how many bodies it would take to fill the graves the satellite images show. But no, what we get instead is just emotive language about 'trying to create mass graves'. Well guess what, they wont be the only ones doing that in this pandemic 

Questions relating to distorted deaths statistics and the true scale of things are really important. I will not defend the regime against such things, and I dont trust their numbers, but the words coming from those who oppose them doesnt give me the true picture either, especially not when its the western press.


----------



## elbows (Mar 25, 2020)

I mean, I invite people to consider what sort of language would be used if pictures of lots of freshly dug grave trenches in the UK were obtained. In a cemetery. In neat rows, not a hidden pit.


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 25, 2020)

This prick US Man Who Licked Items In Walmart Has Been Arrested


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 25, 2020)

'Idiots' deliberately coughing on people in sickening 'corona challenge' across Dublin








						'Idiots' deliberately coughing on people in sickening 'coronavirus challenge'
					

Gardai have urged anyone who has been the victim of such attacks to report the incident




					www.dublinlive.ie


----------



## zahir (Mar 25, 2020)

Greece - Airbnb owners offering free housing to people who need to isolate.









						Offer free Airbnb housing to Greece’s health workers during Coronavirus - Keep Talking Greece
					

With the coronavirus outbreak heading towards its peak in Greece, many health workers need free hous




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 25, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> 'Idiots' deliberately coughing on people in sickening 'corona challenge' across Dublin
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Utter scumbags 
They deserve a thrashing.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 25, 2020)

edit: actually never mind, the figures seem to conflict another data tracking site


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Mar 25, 2020)

The news about tests becoming available which will also tell you if you've had the virus feels positive. And that they're going to be in the UK so soon. My goodness, I hope this happens like they say it will.


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 25, 2020)

No messing in South Africa


----------



## weltweit (Mar 25, 2020)

I got my HMG text today, stay at home - except when … 

About that Schwarzenegger post above. Is it really right that in the supposedly richest country on the planet health workers have to rely on crowd funding to get decent PPC in time of crisis?


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I got my HMG text today, stay at home - except when …
> 
> About that Schwarzenegger post above. Is it really right that in the supposedly richest country on the planet health workers have to rely on crowd funding to get decent PPC in time of crisis?


How do you think it got to be the richest country in the world? America, the epitome of 'Fuck you, Jack, I'm in the lifeboat'


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 25, 2020)

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
					

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.




					in.reuters.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 25, 2020)

Spain now asking for help with equipment from other EU countries, when Italy asked, the rest of the EU went silence, only China sent supplies & experts.


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 25, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Spain now asking for help with equipment from other EU countries, when Italy asked, the rest of the EU went silence, only China sent supplies & experts.


 
Anyone got any ideas/wild speculation as to how this will play out? Further break up of EU? Rising anti-Chinese racism on mainland Europe?


----------



## bimble (Mar 25, 2020)

MadeInBedlam said:


> Anyone got any ideas/wild speculation as to how this will play out? Further break up of EU? Rising anti-Chinese racism on mainland Europe?


Everyone eventually realises that if our problems are global now the solutions have to be as well and tackling this properly would have required proper international cooperation from the start, sharing equipment knowledge and skills moving them to where they were most needed - so out of the ashes will arise a new era. Lol.


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 25, 2020)

bimble said:


> Everyone eventually realises that if our problems are global now the solutions have to be as well and tackling this properly would have required proper international cooperation from the start, sharing equipment knowledge and skills moving them to where they were most needed - so out of the ashes will arise a new era. Lol.



Relax. Have a fag


----------



## xes (Mar 25, 2020)

T & P said:


> Please, let the answer to that be 'weed'.


here you go








						(PDF) Cannabis Indica speeds up Recovery from Coronavirus
					

PDF | Cannabis Indica Speeds up Recovery from Coronavirus Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a viral respiratory disease caused by the SARS... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate




					www.researchgate.net
				




I just googled it, not even read it. Who cares, right?


----------



## redsquirrel (Mar 25, 2020)

MadeInBedlam said:


> Anyone got any ideas/wild speculation as to how this will play out? Further break up of EU? Rising anti-Chinese racism on mainland Europe?


Doubling down on border controls and anti-migration policies, national and/or EU. Can see national populists making hay in the longer run.


----------



## xes (Mar 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> What is your source for this?


Okily dokily. I'm home, let me rustle around in the background for a moment...apologies for the delay

It takes around 1.5-3 hours to cremate someone. According to....



> It takes a crematorium on average 1.5-3 hours to process a body, so the total number of dead being processed by the 14 crematoria of the Hankou funeral home could be between 112 and 224 per day.



So, that's 1 funeral home with 14 furnaces working (capacity of 30)
from here








						Number of Deaths for Coronavirus Likely Far Exceeds Those Released by Chinese Regime: Sources
					

And an exclusive on the new coronavirus. The number of deaths greatly exceeds those released by the Chinese ...




					www.ntd.com
				




Here's another funeral home with 24 ovens lit.


> How many people in China have fallen victim to the coronavirus to date? One hint comes from how busy Wuhan’s 14 crematoriums have suddenly become.
> 
> One crematorium manager told a Hong Kong reporter that,*in normal times, his 24 ovens were lit five days a week for four hours at a time.* Now, he said, they have so many corpses to deal with that all the ovens are going around the clock. This suggests the body count must be in the thousands.



from








						China’s culture of lies has helped spread coronavirus
					

The video out of China’s Hubei province is heartbreaking: A young woman stands outside the doors of a hospital while a body bag is unceremoniously dumped in the back of a hospital van. As the vehic…




					nypost.com
				




see also



> Social media users said there are 84 incinerators located at seven funeral homes across Wuhan, with a capacity to perform 2,016 cremations in any 24-hour period.


from








						Funeral Homes in China's Wuhan 'Working 24/7 to Cremate Bodies'
					

Funeral homes in the city are overwhelmed amid the coronavirus epidemic, and are advertising for round-the-clock workers at premium wages.




					www.rfa.org
				












						Wuhan crematoriums 'burning bodies 24/7 to cope with extra workload'
					

Wuhan crematoriums are reportedly working around the clock to cope with the extra workload during the coronavirus outbreak, as the death toll climbed to 490 in China on Wednesday.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				




You can see how easily these numbers can stack up. Even when you remove the average mortality rate and ovens not working. (I did read somewhere but I can't find it now, that it was around 300 a day in Wuhan, a city of 11 million seems plausible.)

So if those ovens were on full tilt for several weeks or longer, you can see how it's difficult to believe that the death toll in China is even close to 3000. That's 2 days worth.


----------



## editor (Mar 25, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> 'Idiots' deliberately coughing on people in sickening 'corona challenge' across Dublin
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Awesome graphic for that article.


----------



## editor (Mar 25, 2020)

We're living in an age of morons.



> Up to 5,000 students will be allowed to return to Liberty University’s campus after school officials confirmed the conservative Christian school based in Lynchburg, Virginia, will reopen this week.
> 
> Liberty’s president, Jerry Falwell Jr, defied nationwide calls for mandatory school closures, inviting students to return amid a worsening coronavirus pandemic. Falwell is a major and vocal backer of Donald Trump and evangelicals are a core part of the president’s support base.





> At Liberty residence halls will reopen, and despite most classes moving online, faculty members were directed to report to campus.
> 
> “I think we, in a way, are protecting the students by having them on campus together,” Falwell said. Falwell then invoked a since disproven theory that young people “don’t have conditions that put them at risk”.





> Falwell, one of Trump’s most loyal supporters, called the decision to reopen a “responsibility to students” to “enjoy the room and board they’ve already paid for”.











						Jerry Falwell Jr defies calls for coronavirus closures and reopens Liberty University
					

Students invited back to Christian school as Falwell incorrectly said young people ‘don’t have conditions that put them at risk’




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## rutabowa (Mar 25, 2020)

editor said:


> Awesome graphic for that article.


I'd like to see that as an animated gif, with the circles rotating and colours pulsing


----------



## elbows (Mar 25, 2020)

editor said:


> We're living in an age of morons.



His father was the evangelical shithead who asked God for another 10 or 20 years to do his work, and then dropped dead a week later.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 25, 2020)

rutabowa said:


> I'd like to see that as an animated gif, with the circles rotating and colours pulsing


A few grams of 'shrooms will sort that right out.


----------



## Treacle Toes (Mar 25, 2020)

This is really upsetting so discretion advised if you are feeling wobbly. Over the last few days I have increasingly become worried about people dying at home, like this, or alone. 









						London woman dies of suspected Covid-19 after being told she was 'not priority'
					

Kayla Williams, 36, from Peckham, south London, died a day after calling 999 Coronavirus – all updates




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 25, 2020)

Rutita1 said:


> This is really upsetting so discretion advised if you are feeling wobbly. Over the last few days I have increasingly become worried about people dying at home, like this, or alone.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



We are already talking about it in the UK thread. Not that its easy to find words to talk about it.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 25, 2020)

xes said:


> Okily dokily. I'm home, let me rustle around in the background for a moment...apologies for the delay
> 
> It takes around 1.5-3 hours to cremate someone. According to....
> 
> ...


Hi xes you did do some digging indeed. 
I will read the articles.. they sound interesting..


----------



## little_legs (Mar 25, 2020)

If anyone is wondering how America is getting on, their state governments are bidding against each other for medical equipment


----------



## xes (Mar 25, 2020)

Brazilian gangs have imposed their own curfew because the governments action wasn't good enough. 









						Brazil gangs impose strict curfews to slow coronavirus spread
					

Drug traffickers in Cidade de Deus and other Rio favelas order residents to stay home as fears grow over impact of virus on poorest Brazilians




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 25, 2020)

xes said:


> Brazilian gangs have imposed their own curfew because the governments action wasn't good enough.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Been posted several times already.


----------



## xes (Mar 25, 2020)

probably get posted a few more times too. Quite a big thread.


----------



## treelover (Mar 25, 2020)

> In Italy, many victims of Covid-19 are dying in hospital isolation without any family or friends. Visits are banned because the risk of contagion is too high.
> While health authorities say the virus cannot be transmitted posthumously, it can still survive on clothes for a few hours. This means corpses are being sealed away immediately.
> "So many families ask us if they can see the body one last time. But it's forbidden," says Massimo Mancastroppa, an undertaker in Cremona.
> 
> ...



heartbreaking and very moving


----------



## treelover (Mar 25, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Mar 25, 2020)

Clues regarding the big question of how widespread milder cases may be.


----------



## zahir (Mar 25, 2020)

Conditions in Greece’s refugee camps.









						The Looming Refugee Coronavirus Catastrophe
					

Greece's camps were already a public health disaster.




					slate.com


----------



## frogwoman (Mar 25, 2020)

I thought the reason soap was so good was that the virus had a lipid membrane around it which soap breaks down? Or have I misunderstood?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 25, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I thought the reason soap was so good was that the virus had a lipid membrane around it which soap breaks down? Or have I misunderstood?


That is what I was told as well.


----------



## Dogsauce (Mar 25, 2020)

zahir said:


> Conditions in Greece’s refugee camps.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



If there is any consolation amongst such bleakness, it’s that the age profile of the refugee population likely reduces the risk of death, although without access to medical help (ventilation etc.) it’s still a risk.


----------



## zahir (Mar 25, 2020)

Dogsauce said:


> If there is any consolation amongst such bleakness, it’s that the age profile of the refugee population likely reduces the risk of death, although without access to medical help (ventilation etc.) it’s still a risk.



That’s a far point. It may be that if there’s an outbreak in one of the island camps the biggest risk is to the local Greek population. The permanent residents on most islands, and in most Greek villages, are disproportionately elderly.


----------



## petee (Mar 25, 2020)

xes said:


> from
> 
> 
> 
> ...



while i certainly agree that the government of the PRC has botched the response to the spread of the coronavirus for "reasons of state" and that this has led to deaths (as did the governments in DC and in Moscow),  be wary of the Post, as it's a murdoch paper and a rightwing mouthpiece. notice the phrase "china's culture of lies", which is the line trump is pushing to fob his responsibility elsewhere.


----------



## zahir (Mar 25, 2020)

Greece is coming under pressure from the EU to get the most vulnerable refugees away from the island camps.









						EU asks Greece to move migrants most at risk from coronavirus out of crowded camps
					

The European Union has asked Greece to move migrants most at risk of contracting the coronavirus from overcrowded camps on its Mediterranean islands, the EU's top migration official told Reuters on Tuesday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## little_legs (Mar 25, 2020)




----------



## editor (Mar 26, 2020)

*awaits reports of people at home overdosing on vast volumes of Vit C: 



> Seriously sick coronavirus patients in New York state’s largest hospital system are being given massive doses of vitamin C — based on promising reports that it’s helped people in hard-hit China, The Post has learned.
> 
> Dr. Andrew G. Weber, a pulmonologist and critical-care specialist affiliated with two Northwell Health facilities on Long Island, said his intensive-care patients with the coronavirus immediately receive 1,500 milligrams of intravenous vitamin C.
> 
> ...











						New York hospitals treating coronavirus patients with vitamin C
					

Seriously sick coronavirus patients in New York state’s largest hospital system are being given massive doses of vitamin C — based on promising reports that it’s helped people in hard-h…




					nypost.com


----------



## petee (Mar 26, 2020)

little_legs said:


>




more


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 26, 2020)

Well, I know the guy's an absolute bell and talks shite a lot of the time, but if this is genuine then fair fucks to him I guess.









						McGregor pledges 1m euros of medical kit
					

Conor McGregor is buying one million euros worth of personal protective equipment for hospitals in Ireland.




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## bimble (Mar 26, 2020)

Quite interesting. Looks like the disparity between how many man and how many women are dying of this thing may not be down to smoking, which was their best idea after just looking at the numbers from China. 








						Men are much more likely to die from coronavirus - but why?
					

Trend has been replicated in all nations, but scientists cannot yet fathom the cause




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## TopCat (Mar 26, 2020)

rutabowa said:


> I'd like to see that as an animated gif, with the circles rotating and colours pulsing


Fuck that. Its scary enough as it is


----------



## Idris2002 (Mar 26, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Well, I know the guy's an absolute bell and talks shite a lot of the time, but if this is genuine then fair fucks to him I guess.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yes,, the Great Irish National Disgrace will surely be true to his word. 

Get a grip, man.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 26, 2020)

Idris2002 said:


> Yes,, the Great Irish National Disgrace will surely be true to his word.
> 
> Get a grip, man.



Yeah.  I don't know whether he will stump up the money as promised but history tells us that a lot of people say a lot of things at times like this.  Lets see how much money actually shows up.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 26, 2020)

bimble said:


> Quite interesting. Looks like the disparity between how many man and how many women are dying of this thing may not be down to smoking, which was their best idea after just looking at the numbers from China.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Smoking was never likely to be the sole factor.  The disparity in deaths just didn't match the disparity for smoking rates between men and women.  In Italy its like close to double or something isn't it?  In terms of men dying v women.  That could never be explained away just by smoking.   Though it would clearly be very unwise to assume smoking isn't a factor.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 26, 2020)

Interesting article, and it does suggest the smoking thing is a red herring. 

Nothing I can do about it, I am what I am, and what I am ..


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Interesting article, and it does suggest the smoking thing is a red herring.



No it doesn't.

It simply says that smoking alone can't be the reason and there are other factors at play.


----------



## zahir (Mar 26, 2020)

Iran finally goes into lockdown.


----------



## editor (Mar 26, 2020)

FFS: 



> The US arts-and-crafts chain Hobby Lobby has said it will remain open during the coronavirus epidemic – but has also refused sick pay for workers who fall ill, including from Covid-19.
> 
> The chain is keeping some stores open in states that have not ordered non-essential retailers to shut down. In a letter to all employees on 19 March, founder and CEO David Green warned that times would be tough: “To help ensure our company remains strong and prepared to prosper once again when this passes, we may all have to ‘tighten our belts’ over the near future.”
> 
> Mr Green, a devout conservative Christian whose net worth is in the region of $6bn, also wrote that “I cannot adequately express how much I appreciate each one of you.”











						Billionaire refuses to pay sick leave after keeping stores open because ‘God spoke to him’
					

Billionaire CEO told employees to ‘tighten their belts’




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Mar 26, 2020)

Can we rebrand them killionaires?


----------



## Tankus (Mar 26, 2020)

USA just passed Italy  in CV19 positive tests  , and is expected to pass China tomorrow  , ...........   to be number  one   .

..America  first


----------



## strung out (Mar 26, 2020)

Tankus said:


> USA just passed Italy  in CV19 positive tests  , and is expected to pass China tomorrow  , ...........   to be number  one   .
> 
> ..America  first


USA! USA! USA!


----------



## DaveCinzano (Mar 26, 2020)

MADA


----------



## sideboob (Mar 26, 2020)

Tankus said:


> USA just passed Italy  in CV19 positive tests  , and is expected to pass China tomorrow  , ...........   to be number  one   .
> 
> ..America  first


source?


----------



## DaveCinzano (Mar 26, 2020)

sideboob said:


> source?


----------



## sideboob (Mar 26, 2020)

DaveCinzano said:


> View attachment 203450


Thanks
eta I thought the Johns Hopkins corona dashboard was up to date, real time.


----------



## elbows (Mar 26, 2020)

DaveCinzano said:


> MADA



MAYA (Young)


----------



## DaveCinzano (Mar 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> MAYA (Young)


Trump promising to make a mess o' America


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 26, 2020)

DaveCinzano said:


> Trump promising to make a mess o' America



Trump is promising it'll be all over in 3 weeks, the twats.


----------



## xes (Mar 26, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Trump is promising it'll be all over in 3 weeks, the twats.


I thought he was an expert in these matters? 

He must know the ins and outs of a category 5 outbreak like this...


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 26, 2020)

So the 26 million US citizens without health insurance? Presumably if they fall ill, they will potentially be lumbered with unrepayable debts for the rest of their lives? I fear for the poor in the US.


----------



## RTWL (Mar 26, 2020)

The search engine said this has not been posted ... this is pure genius and rocks !

In comparison to some western governments.... it is a far better way of educating people.


----------



## elbows (Mar 26, 2020)

Some of the details in this story about Spains healthcare workers being infected in large numbers might sound familiar.









						Spain says 6,500 healthcare workers have COVID-19
					

By the time Patricia Nunez's cough started, she was already familiar with the dreaded dry hacking sound tormenting patients who had for weeks been filling the Madrid emergency ward where she works.




					www.cp24.com
				






> “The worst thing is that you need to stay at home, worried about infecting relatives, while knowing that you are dearly needed at work,” she told The Associated Press.
> 
> The coronavirus is waging a war of attrition against health care workers throughout the world, but nowhere is it winning more battles at the moment than in Italy and in Spain, where protective equipment and tests have been in severely short supply for weeks.
> 
> Spain's universal health care system is a source of national pride and often hailed as a reason for its citizens' legendary longevity, but the outbreak is exposing its shortcomings, some of which are the result of years of budget cuts.



There are quite a lot of alarming numbers in the article but I ran out of energy for quoting bits, dunno where I would stop.


----------



## DaveCinzano (Mar 26, 2020)

strung out said:


> USA! USA! USA!


Thar she blows


----------



## editor (Mar 26, 2020)

God didn't help this fella









						Christian pastor who thought COVID-19 is just ‘mass hysteria’ among the first from Virginia to die from virus
					

One of the first deaths of a Virginian from coronavirus was a 66-year-old Christian “musical evangelist” who fell ill while on a trip to New Orleans with his wife. As the Friendly Atheist’s Bo Gardiner points out, Landon Spradlin had previously shared opinions that the pandemic was the result of...




					www.rawstory.com


----------



## two sheds (Mar 26, 2020)

editor said:


> God didn't help this fella
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Surely could only have been mass hysteria if he'd been a catholic?


----------



## kabbes (Mar 27, 2020)

bimble said:


> Quite interesting. Looks like the disparity between how many man and how many women are dying of this thing may not be down to smoking, which was their best idea after just looking at the numbers from China.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Biologists see a demographic difference in results and assume there must be a biological cause underlying the demography.  There might be, of course.  But there’s no reason on the face of it to assume that the differences don’t simply lie in a range of social factors, of which smoking rates are (a potentially big) one.   There could be something complicated to do with male vs female biology (particularly strength of immune system).  There could just as well be straightforward differences in the way men and women live their lives.


----------



## Dogsauce (Mar 27, 2020)

zahir said:


> Iran finally goes into lockdown.




One thing that may reduce the death rate in Iran is the fact that it is a very young population, although if they run out of ICU capacity that would be cancelled out.

i guess that might also be a thing that reduces the death rate in a lot of poorer countries, might not be as many octogenarians knocking about as preventable illnesses will have already made inroads there.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

Bill Gates recent TED interview commented a lot on developing countries being very important in the battle against this virus, I forget where it was posted but it is worth a watch.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

I see the USA now has more confirmed cases than any other country including China / Italy / Spain.


----------



## Numbers (Mar 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I see the USA now has more confirmed cases than any other country including China / Italy / Spain.


Thankfully it'll all be over by Easter.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I see the USA now has more confirmed cases than any other country including China / Italy / Spain.



Yeah, but it'll over by Easter.

Trump says so.

ETA - just beaten too it by Numbers.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

Numbers said:


> Thankfully it'll all be over by Easter.





cupid_stunt said:


> Yeah, but it'll over by Easter.
> 
> Trump says so.
> 
> ETA - just beaten too it by Numbers.


They are so fucked  

Shouldn't smilie really when so many are going to suffer or worse. 
Trumps pronouncements are such drivel.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

I can't help seeing some similarity in the bullish optimism in the face of medical evidence of Johnson and Trump though Trump is way out in front for unplausibility. At least Johnson gave us 12 weeks to beat the virus, Trump has been stating much more ridiculous time scales.


----------



## keybored (Mar 27, 2020)

S☼I said:


> Well, I know the guy's an absolute bell and talks shite a lot of the time, but if this is genuine then fair fucks to him I guess.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





> In a *private* twitter exchange with Irish Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe, *published by McGregor,*



Such a selfless hero.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 27, 2020)

The US does seem poised for nothing short of a catastrophe.  A toxic mix of nasty shit going on there which could easily see the death rate hit the millions.  Obviously I hope I'm wrong but it looks really grim.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

I agree, the USA looks unprepared, states are bidding prices up for PPE kit against each other, celebrities are donating money for medical supplies because the states are not funding enough, and federally Trump isn't providing adequate leadership. 

I believe the worst areas in terms of infection are New York and California, I believe CA is on some level of lock down but I don't know what is happening in NY. There are also other states that are highly infected.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I agree, the USA looks unprepared, states are bidding prices up for PPE kit against each other, celebrities are donating money for medical supplies because the states are not funding enough, and federally Trump isn't providing adequate leadership.
> 
> I believe the worst areas in terms of infection are New York and California, I believe CA is on some level of lock down but I don't know what is happening in NY. There are also other states that are highly infected.



Yes a totally inadequate healthcare system and a government who are in total denial and completely at a loss as to what to do.  It could be worse in the US than its going to be in India and its going to be bad in India.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

Bill Gates is somewhat of a hero at the moment having predicted a flue like pandemic some years ago and also for throwing resources at it from his foundation. He was interviewed recently for a TED talk, which is well worth a watch.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 27, 2020)

From the front line in New York City.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I see the USA now has more confirmed cases than any other country including China / Italy / Spain.


They'll be fine. God will look after them. They're his chosen ones.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

It seems NY is perhaps a centre for covid-19 there are lots of stories on the net: 


> Every hospital in New York has been ordered to increase its bed capacity by 50% because at the moment the city is about 90,000 beds short of what they predict they might need.











						Coronavirus: 'Hell' at New York's COVID-19 ground zero
					

New York state alone has accounted for more than 30,000 cases and close to 300 deaths, most of them in New York City.




					news.sky.com
				




Governor Andrew Cuomo is calling for more PPE from federal government. 


> New York now has over 25,000 confirmed virus cases and at least 210 deaths.
> 
> The World Health Organization (WHO) said on Tuesday the US has the potential to become the new epicentre of the coronavirus pandemic.
> 
> The warnings come as President Donald Trump said he hoped the US would reopen for business next month.


Trump rather out of step with reality. Surely it must be so obvious how out of touch he is, this must mean it is possible he won't get reelected no?








						Coronavirus spreading in New York like 'a bullet train'
					

As New York's governor predicts thousands of deaths, President Trump hopes to reopen the US by Easter.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Trump rather out of step with reality.


Unfortunately so is his voter base.


----------



## bellaozzydog (Mar 27, 2020)

181 dead in U.K. registered today? 

It’s moving up a gear


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

bellaozzydog said:


> 181 dead in U.K. registered today?
> 
> It’s moving up a gear


Grim


----------



## editor (Mar 27, 2020)

This theory seems to be gaining some traction. Any informed thoughts? I certainly had those symptoms a while back but that probably means nothing. 



> Now that we’re all hyperaware of the new coronavirus, you might be thinking back on the last time you were sick. More specifically, you may be reflecting on that cold or respiratory illness you experienced back at the beginning of the year. Is there a chance that was actually COVID-19?
> 
> The main symptoms of COVID-19 include a cough, shortness of breath and a fever. Additionally, you might have digestive problems ― like nausea or diarrhea ― a headache and a sore throat. At the onset of the illness, you may experience a loss of smell or taste.
> These symptoms can be mistaken for a bad cold or the flu, especially if you have a “mild” case of COVID-19. It’s also very possible to have the virus and not even notice, as some cases can be asymptomatic or negligible.
> ...











						Is It Possible That You Had The Coronavirus Earlier This Year?
					

Many people had the flu or a bad cold in late 2019 or early 2020, and they're now wondering if the symptoms were actually COVID-19.




					www.huffingtonpost.co.uk
				












						Have I already had coronavirus? How would I know and what should I do?
					

Covid-19 symptoms, when they occur, vary widely and undertesting means many people have probably been unwittingly infected




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 27, 2020)

Where I work is absolutely prime Territory for infections of this kind and I'm amazed there have been no formal reports of cases among the thousands of staff and clients there with a constant stream of people from all over the world.
I myself caught something insanely intense this time last year that it took me months to recover from - totally atypical for me.

I wonder if we ultimately they'll be able to "sequence" antibodies and spot these viruses repeatedly emerging, petering out and then mutating successfully....


----------



## elbows (Mar 27, 2020)

gentlegreen said:


> I wonder if we ultimately they'll be able to "sequence" antibodies and spot these viruses repeatedly emerging, petering out and then mutating successfully....



Antibody tests are really to tell us things like what proportion of the public have had it.

In terms of tracking the evolution of the virus, many genome sequences are being obtained and shared all the time, since the early days of this outbreak, and that should continue.


----------



## elbows (Mar 27, 2020)

editor said:


> This theory seems to be gaining some traction. Any informed thoughts? I certainly had those symptoms a while back but that probably means nothing.



Two parts to this really:

The big picture - same stuff that we have been talking about here in the past and quite intensely more recently. All the stuff about antibody tests and the true number of very mild and asymptomatic cases, that Oxford model that suggested a high percentage of the population might already have it, and related matters. No way to know without the data or sufficient time passing.

The personal - Certainly it has not been possible for me to categorically say that no illness I got since mid January could possibly have been Covid-19. But the chances of that possibility have changed massively since then, its almost hard to overstate this point because of the way the number of cases starts small and then, via doubling every so many days, eventually starts to get very large and to carry on getting much larger more quickly. I haent done the maths, but if I got ill right now then it would be much more likely to be Covid-19 than it would have been a month ago, and a month ago would have been much more likely than a month earlier still.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 27, 2020)

I suppose it's needles in haystacks.

Last year taught me a massive lesson about "House MD" vs. reality ... They were never going to actually diagnose what I had ... 

They fortuitously spotted insulin resistance that left me short of energy and presumably may have slowed recovery through what others label as "ME", but not the initial virus ....

I imagine whoever I caught it from may have had a similar experience....


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

Without the antibody test it seems anyone's guess. I have had a dry cough on waking and another time I awoke in a muck sweat with what seemed like a temperature. None of these symptoms were sustained though however what is a very mild case? Apparently they can be so mild that one does not even feel ill at all and hardly notices.

This mildness does suggest the position could be somewhere between current model and the Oxford study, but we won't know until testing establishes it.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

> (CNN)There were over 74,000 cases of coronavirus in the United States as of Thursday midday. About half were in New York -- almost 10 times more than any other state.
> Why has the outbreak hit New York so much harder than other places?
> Health experts said the answers are largely specific to the New York metropolitan area -- its density and population, primarily -- but they are also a warning to other states that think they may be spared.
> New York is the epicenter for now, but Covid-19 will not stop there.











						Why New York is the epicenter of the American coronavirus outbreak
					

There were over 74,000 cases of coronavirus in the United States as of Thursday midday. About half were in New York -- almost 10 times more than any other state.




					edition.cnn.com
				






> As the United States records the most detected cases of coronavirus in the world, the president, who had questioned the need for additional ventilators, pushes industry to make more. States are pleading for supplies as shortages of protective gear endanger health workers the world over.
> 
> Right Now
> The House passed the $2 trillion stimulus package by voice vote, sending it to President Trump for his signature.











						Trump Signs $2 Trillion Bill as U.S. Virus Cases Pass 100,000 (Published 2020)
					

President Trump, who had questioned the need for additional ventilators, pushed industry to make more. A new survey of mayors found dire shortages of urgently needed supplies.




					www.nytimes.com
				




Despite the claims of high density in NY these two articles (what you can see of them) don't really seem to offer a viable explanation as to why NY is the most heavily infected city in the USA at the moment. Perhaps the infection arrived there first and they are just days or a week or two further down the path which so many cities seem to have travelled down around the world. 

What seems a common experience - from everywhere - is that NY hospitals don't have enough PPE and not enough ventilators and as such seem woefully inadequately prepared. And uniquely to the US, states still have to bid for the gear, in competition with other states. The Mayor's plea for Trump to establish federal distribution channels seems at the moment to have fallen on deaf ears.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

There is a BBC report that New Orleans, which recently did hold it's Mardi Gras celebrations with many out of state visitors, is also now showing many infections.



> The Louisiana city has around 1,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and, according to one academic study, saw the world’s fastest growth rate in terms of how quickly cases rose in the first fortnight after detection.
> 
> Suspicion has fallen on the city’s famous Mardi Gras festivities which ran throughout February before reaching a climax on the 25th, around a month ago. It attracted an estimated 1.4 million tourists.











						New Orleans coronavirus cases surge amid fears Mardi Gras fuelled spread
					

Celebrations described as 'perfect storm' for Covid-19 to spread




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

Yes xes how can China's numbers be true? Worldometers reports that China had 81,000 infections and 3,292 deaths. Italy with a tiny fraction of the Chinese population has 86,000 cases and 9,134 deaths. Unless China did something really exceptional, I accept that once the virus was identified China did respond big time but can their actions really explain the vast difference in their experience compared to Italy's experience?


----------



## xes (Mar 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes xes how can China's numbers be true? Worldometers reports that China had 81,000 infections and 3,292 deaths. Italy with a tiny fraction of the Chinese population has 86,000 cases and 9,134 deaths. Unless China did something really exceptional, I accept that once the virus was identified China did respond big time but can their actions really explain the vast difference in their experience compared to Italy's experience?



 Indeed, something doesn't add up. I did see a picture from inside one of the hospitals in Wuhan, someone working in a hospital lab put out a written message. (photo of a bit of paper, dated, with something identifiable from inside the hospital next to it) Said all the usual about how much worse it was, also said that they weren't counting the 'sudden deaths' which accounting for at least 30% of deaths in the hospital. They said entire wards were being emptied and refilled in the same day. 

 I dread to think what the real numbers are. But on that first weekend when it exploded. (around the 20th of Jan) there were a couple of videos of doctors pleading for help saying that there are at least 100000 people infected and trying to get treatment. I read some time later that on that weekend, roughly 150,000 people got sent home as the hospitals were full. And the number of videos of the dead being taken out of homes. You have to wonder how many of those people went home and died, infecting their families, and anyone on the bus ride home. 

 This has been massively down played. It really is the only explanation to the global reaction. 


And were the Tencent numbers that got shown for a moment, the real numbers?


----------



## Anju (Mar 27, 2020)

Just chatting online with a friend in Pakistan.  Apparently they are using a non alcohol based sanitizer, though he doesn't know what it's made with. Would that be possible? He genuinely believes that God will save them. Looks like they are managing some social distancing but there are also chaotic scenes. Religious belief seems to be having a negative impact in a lot of places. 

Is it possible that we will be in a position to offer help to countries which lack the health and communication infrastructure, as well as funds to deal with this in time to limit the spread.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 27, 2020)

This temptingly reassuring Sky News segment popped up via the YouTube algorithm this evening:



Seen this one, elbows?


----------



## Boru (Mar 27, 2020)

Massive new restrictions in Ireland starting at midnight tonight for two weeks. All stay at home and exercise within 2km of house.
Only leave house for groceries, household equipment, medical appointment and family business.
Continue to practice distancing when out. They really upping the game to isolate and contain infections. Infections and deaths still rising. This is surreal times now..








						'Stay at home': Further Covid-19 restrictions announced
					

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said that from midnight last night and for a two-week period, everybody must stay at home, except in specific circumstances.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

Anju said:


> ..
> Is it possible that we will be in a position to offer help to countries which lack the health and communication infrastructure, as well as funds to deal with this in time to limit the spread.
> ..


We will be obliged to out of a sort of international comradeship but also and more relevantly out of pure self interest, if we sat back and permitted countries like these to be massive viral hot spots we would never return to the sort of world order we knew in our past.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 27, 2020)

Interesting fall out at the EU summit ( a virtual one) with majority of  members pushing for corona bonds but being blocked by four other states. 









						“Repugnant!”: PM Costa launches extraordinary attack on Dutch finance minister - Portugal Resident
					

“Repugnant!”: PM Costa launches extraordinary attack on Dutch finance minister Wopke Hoekstra, one of the four key moneymen standing in the way of a concerted European plan




					www.portugalresident.com


----------



## xes (Mar 27, 2020)

Apparently it's kicking off in China, large protests.


----------



## Anju (Mar 27, 2020)

weltweit said:


> We will be obliged to out of a sort of international comradeship but also and more relevantly out of pure self interest, if we sat back and permitted countries like these to be massive viral hot spots we would never return to the sort of world order we knew in our past.



Yes, I'm optimistically hoping there will be an international coordinated effort to try and get this under control but wondering how quickly that might happen. Seems a long way off at the moment.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

Anju said:


> Yes, I'm optimistically hoping there will be an international coordinated effort to try and get this under control but wondering how quickly that might happen. Seems a long way off at the moment.


Well China seems to either officially or unofficially to be helping other countries, a team of Chinese medical staff went to assist in Italy and supplies of Chinese PPE etc have been shipped to various countries. Also I understand the Chinese president has been talking to Trump, although it seems he has not had so much influence there yet!


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> This temptingly reassuring Sky News segment popped up via the YouTube algorithm this evening:
> 
> 
> 
> Seen this one, elbows?



Yes, it is quite possible, certainly mild cases can be so mild it is my understanding that you can not even know you have had it. But nice as that theory sounds it can only be proven with extensive public testing and our testing capacity isn't yet robust enough even to properly test the NHS frontline workers, and that is with a test to find out if they have it, not a test to find out if they have had it and are thus now immune.


----------



## elbows (Mar 27, 2020)

The main problem with that Oxford model only arises when the media report on it in a misleading way.

I spoke way too much about the study this week already, so here is an article by someone else instead.









						Can we trust the Oxford study on Covid-19 infections? | Adam Kucharski
					

We don’t know exactly how many people have already been infected with the virus, but there’s no evidence it’s half the population, says epidemiologist and author Adam Kucharski




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 27, 2020)

The BBC has a good summary page here of the world situation:


			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105
		

With some nice charts and diagrams. Worth a look if you want an overview.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 27, 2020)

Unbelievable but somehow isn't shocking


----------



## editor (Mar 28, 2020)

FUCKING AMERICA



> A 17-year-old boy in Los Angeles County who became the first teen believed to have died from complications with covid-19 in the U.S. was denied treatment at an urgent care clinic because he didn’t have health insurance, according to R. Rex Parris, the mayor of Lancaster, California. Roughly 27.5 million Americans—8.5 percent of the population—don’t have health insurance based on the latest government figures.
> 
> “He didn’t have insurance, so they did not treat him,” Parris said in a video posted to YouTube. The staff at the urgent care facility told the teen to try the emergency room at Antelope Valley (AV) Hospital, a public hospital in the area, according to the mayor.











						Teen Who Died of Covid-19 Was Denied Treatment Because He Didn't Have Health Insurance
					

A 17-year-old boy in Los Angeles County who became the first teen believed to have died from complications with covid-19 in the U.S. was denied treatment at an urgent care clinic because he didn’t have health insurance, according to R. Rex Parris, the mayor of Lancaster, California. Roughly 27.5...




					gizmodo.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

India is taking the virus very seriously as reported on the WHO site: 


> On 24 March 2020, the Prime Minister announced a 21-day nationwide lockdown: “In order to protect the country, and each of its citizens, from midnight tonight, a complete ban is being imposed on people from stepping out of their homes.”


Nobody is allowed out of their homes at all, for any reason! 





						Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)
					






					www.who.int


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

editor, I wonder if this period just might make the USA wake up and realise that their health system isn't good enough to serve the needs of their population. And it wastes so much money also compared to our system.


----------



## oryx (Mar 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> editor, I wonder if this period just might make the USA wake up and realise that their health system isn't good enough to serve the needs of their population. And it wastes so much money also compared to our system.


I would like to think so but I doubt it. At least, not with the perma-tanned moron in charge.


----------



## elbows (Mar 28, 2020)

Epidemiology of the King County, Washington State care home outbreak.



			https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2005412?query=RP
		




> As of March 18, a total of 167 confirmed cases of Covid-19 affecting 101 residents, 50 health care personnel, and 16 visitors were found to be epidemiologically linked to the facility. Most cases among residents included respiratory illness consistent with Covid-19; however, in 7 residents no symptoms were documented. Hospitalization rates for facility residents, visitors, and staff were 54.5%, 50.0%, and 6.0%, respectively. The case fatality rate for residents was 33.7% (34 of 101). As of March 18, a total of 30 long-term care facilities with at least one confirmed case of Covid-19 had been identified in King County.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> editor, I wonder if this period just might make the USA wake up and realise that their health system isn't good enough to serve the needs of their population. And it wastes so much money also compared to our system.


I think it's possible. But sadly it will only be made possible if there is a total catastrophe in the US, with thousands, or more probably tens of thousands, shown to have died unnecessarily.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

South Korea seems of interest as a bit of a success story so I have been reading some sites: 



> Fearing the worst, she decided to get a Covid-19 test at one of the dozens of drive-through centres. Two people dressed head-to-toe in white protective clothing, clear goggles and surgical face masks are ready for her.





> Nearly 20,000 people are being tested every day for coronavirus in South Korea, more people per capita than anywhere else in the world.
> 
> Rachel's sample is quickly shipped off to a nearby laboratory where staff are working 24 hours a day to process the results.





> Health officials believe this approach may be saving lives. The fatality rate for coronavirus in South Korea is 0.7%. Globally the World Health Organization has reported 3.4% - but scientists estimate that the death rate is lower because not all cases are reported.



From: Is S Korea's rapid testing the key to coronavirus?



> Amid these dire trends, South Korea has emerged as a sign of hope and a model to emulate. The country of 50 million appears to have greatly slowed its epidemic; it reported only 74 new cases today, down from 909 at its peak on 29 February. And it has done so without locking down entire cities or taking some of the other authoritarian measures that helped China bring its epidemic under control. “South Korea is a democratic republic, we feel a lockdown is not a reasonable choice,” says Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University. South Korea’s success may hold lessons for other countries—and also a warning: Even after driving case numbers down, the country is braced for a resurgence.
> 
> Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts. South Korea has tested more than 270,000 people, which amounts to more than 5200 tests per million inhabitants—more than any other country except tiny Bahrain, according to the Worldometer website. The United States has so far carried out 74 tests per 1 million inhabitants, data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show.



from: Coronavirus cases have dropped sharply in South Korea. What’s the secret to its success?

Perhaps there is no secret, they are just testing tracing and isolating without lockdowns, just keeping at it and relentlessly hunting the virus down. If we are to believe their figures and I feel as a democracy with little to motivate them to lie I probably do, I think other nations can learn from South Korea. 

As SheilaNaGig mentioned though in another post a couple of days ago, little news from their northern neighbour. I may have a search for that now actually.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

So, it seems North Korea closed its border with China early in the outbreak but still has infections in its population, it is reported to be requesting help to get its testing program underway despite having some testing kits in country, but it fears the virus could damage its fragile health system.

It has not admitted to any cases however or fatalities.
from: Subscribe to read | Financial Times



> Around 80 foreigners who were quarantined for weeks in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, have finally left the country.
> 
> The Air Koryo flight to Vladivostok is the first commercial flight to leave North Korea in over a month, said specialist news site NK News.
> 
> ...



from: Foreigners leave N Korea on first flight in weeks

So, despite reading a few sites thrown up by my searching there really isn't much information online, apart from the suggestion that NK has been secretly asking for help.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 28, 2020)

Another ship of doom, 4 people have died & dozens showing symptoms, it's stranded off Panama, with the authorities refusing to allow it to use the canal, because that would require them to put some of their people on-board to navigate it. It''s actually one of at least 10 ships now stranded across the world, with many thousands on-board.   



> Passengers on a cruise ship stranded off the coast of Panama have issued a desperate plea to be allowed to dock after four people died during a covid-19 outbreak on board.
> 
> Two people have tested positive for the disease and dozens are ill with flu-like symptoms on the Zaandam luxury cruise liner, which has not been able to dock after several Latin American countries closed their ports in response to the global pandemic.











						'Very scary': pleas for safe harbour from stranded cruise ship near Panama
					

Two people have tested positive for the disease and four people have died on the Zaandam luxury cruise liner




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

Germany, with a strong medical sector, more acute beds than most other EU members and it appears thus far more testing and fewer deaths than comparable EU countries. What are they doing? 



> Germany has a remarkably low coronavirus death rate — thanks largely to mass testing, but also culture, luck, and an impressive healthcare system
> ..
> Germany is testing as many as 120,000 people a week, meaning the number of cases keeps rising while the number of deaths trickle in slowly.
> ..
> ...


from: Germany has a remarkably low coronavirus death rate — thanks largely to mass testing, but also culture, luck, and an impressive healthcare system



> In Germany, just 0.6% of their confirmed *coronavirus* cases have so far ended up being fatal - the lowest figure amongst any of the most affected countries.
> 
> The next best case fatality rate is 1.4%, which can be found in the United States, Switzerland, Portugal and South Korea, while in some countries the death rate is substantially higher.
> 
> In Italy, 10.1% of confirmed cases have ended up proving fatal.



However, more widespread testing and finding more infected people reduces your case fatality rate just by dint of your increased testing. The people are still dead. 



> In the early stages of the disease Germany carried out thousands of tests and implemented rigorous contact tracing.
> ..
> By testing people who might have been exposed to the disease, Germany has been able to identify cases of coronavirus quicker and isolate people who have been infected.
> 
> ...


from Coronavirus: Why Germany has such a low COVID-19 death rate

So, it seems early infections were amongst younger parts of Germany's population and not being a vulnerable group more of them recovered, plus Germany has been widely testing tracing and isolating like South Korea, and Germany has a more resourced and prepared medical sector with the highest number of acute beds in the EU, so patients falling ill are getting the best care.


----------



## elbows (Mar 28, 2020)

I think its an out of date impression of how well Germany is doing.

Here is the latest version of my dreaded table. I havent figured out whether to adjust UK data to account for new timing of figures, so far I left it alone.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 28, 2020)

Yep, daily deaths are starting to increase in Germany, daily figures for Mon - Fri are 29, 36, 47, 61 & 84.


----------



## BlanketAddict (Mar 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> editor, I wonder if this period just might make the USA wake up and realise that their health system isn't good enough to serve the needs of their population. And it wastes so much money also compared to our system.



Can't see it happening. 
America is a business.


----------



## Supine (Mar 28, 2020)

Good interview with somebody who knows what she is talking about.








						Cambridge virologist explains what we know and don't know about Covid 19
					

Dr Jane Greatorex reveals why we don't know yet if people can become immune to Covid 19 and how long the pandemic could last




					www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk


----------



## Artaxerxes (Mar 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> editor, I wonder if this period just might make the USA wake up and realise that their health system isn't good enough to serve the needs of their population. And it wastes so much money also compared to our system.



The annoying thing about the US is that there is a very solid bedrock of support for something to change in its medical system but the sheer weight of money and the senators in bed with it have stemmed any change for half a century or more.

It's insane.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 28, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I think it's possible. But sadly it will only be made possible if there is a total catastrophe in the US, with thousands, or more probably tens of thousands, shown to have died unnecessarily.



It’s possible but unlikely. Trump will be given a pass by his fans at the election because he’s working so hard to preserve the economy/their personal wealth and the pandemic is foreign/not his fault/couldn’t be predicted. Added to this the bonkers end-times hard core Xians who see him as an agent of their god: this “plague” will confirm their belief that it’s all panning out as they predict, so strengthen their support of Trump.

But also, it’s hard for anyone who’s not witnessed it first hand to understand how thoroughly and intractably the right hate the disenfranchised. I don’t just mean they’re politically averse, I mean they have a deeply emotional sense of fear and disgust for anyone who hasn’t successfully climbed aboard the American Dream bandwagon. Even those who are themselves poor and disenfranchised are utterly opposed to anyone who doesn’t demonstrate their adherence to the story. These adherants are going to become very much more entrenched and defensive of their myth in the coming months. They will defend their own creation story identify (pioneering, independent, self-sufficient, loyal to family and nationhood (define “nation” as applicable) ) ahead of any other factor.

They will see this catastrophe as inevitable, a reckoning, a test of the fittest, an opportunity for cleansing society. They will shrug at the horror, tuck in and circle their wagons around their own and arm themselves against anyone else. 

The sane and kind are in the minority in America. And it is a kind of madness, this stubborn blind inability to connect with the suffering of anyone outsider heir own experience. It’s what’s made them so successful around the world, but it’s the secret hollow in the heart of their culture.

Nothing will make them more caring, because that necessitates the dismantling of their self identity. 

Well, it might happen if their self identify is destroyed by this pandemic, but then we’d be witnessing some kind of social apocalypse.

Wait... Isn’t that where I started ....? And round we go.





Teaboy said:


> The US does seem poised for nothing short of a catastrophe.  A toxic mix of nasty shit going on there which could easily see the death rate hit the millions.  Obviously I hope I'm wrong but it looks really grim.




I'm deeply concerned about this.

I have friends and family all over America, including New York City and NY state. Fortunately a lot of them have been ignoring Trump's hubris and voluntarily locking down for weeks. 

This is going to be such a shit show. Millions of invisible disenfranchised unsupported destitute people, many of them with opiate addictions and serious comorbities, no kind of supple widespread public health care system. People will be using brute force and guns to try to access help and to defend their own homes and properties.

In relative terms the UK may get off lightly (at least in the first wave). For developing countries, places under the cosh of war, poverty, abuse of power, it's inevitable that this is going to be harrowing. It seems peculiar and ironically fitting that the most powerful most developed most equipped most advanced yaddah yaddah nation, who has repeatedly and ignorantly stomped all over everything for so long could find themselves in the same kind of deep danger as those nations they've been stomping on.




As an aside, with regards public health care:

Back in 1986 I was travelling around America in my early 20s. I got sick in New Orleans and went to the public hospital. I hold an American passport so I was eligible for basic health care. It was a normal February day, no pandemic or other disaster (although at that time NO had a very high murder rate, there had already been more than 30 murders in the city, so one every day that year). The waiting room was overcrowded, queues down the corridors. I waited for 2 hours to be triaged and another 5 hours to be seen by a doctor, who assessed me, prescribed antibiotics and discharged me in less than 10 minutes. In that 7 hours I saw  2 gunshot wounds coming in, people in respiratory distress struggling and gasping, people in wheelchairs, and someone died in the waiting room. They didn’t even put a curtain around him while he died, they laid him on the floor and held him and then they put a blanket over him and called for a porter with a gurney. 

This was the mid eighties and pre-Katrina so hopefully there are much better hospital facilities there now. But small more isolated towns will still have limited facilities. This pandemic is going to be utterly overwhelming for poor America while Amerikka does a better job of  taking taking care of itself.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 28, 2020)

Artaxerxes said:


> The annoying thing about the US is that there is a very solid bedrock of support for something to change in its medical system but the sheer weight of money and the senators in bed with it have stemmed any change for half a century or more.
> 
> It's insane.




It’s still a minority, this solid bedrock.

It bewilders me that even many who would benefit from a better public healthcare system are ideologically opposed to it.


----------



## Dogsauce (Mar 28, 2020)

UK doesn’t seem to be on the same curve as Italy, thankfully. I wonder if that is due to earlier preventative measures, even the basic stuff like hand washing, or just down to demographics and other factors?


----------



## editor (Mar 28, 2020)

Well, this is nice 









						Virus Rules Let Construction Workers Keep Building Luxury Towers (Published 2020)
					

The laborers, deemed “essential” by New York, work side by side, often sharing portable toilets that rarely have soap or hand sanitizer.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## D (Mar 28, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I think it's possible. But sadly it will only be made possible if there is a total catastrophe in the US, with thousands, or more probably tens of thousands, shown to have died unnecessarily.


that catastrophe is already in motion.  Official death count today is 1246 with 85,356 cases _reported_.  Hello from NYC.


----------



## editor (Mar 28, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> It bewilders me that even many who would benefit from a better public healthcare system are ideologically opposed to it.


Best summed up the words of a girlfriend of a good friend I had a monster argument with a few years back in New York. She asked what I was most proud of as a British person. I responded that it was the NHS and its free healthcare for all principles (at least when it was formed) 

Her response:  "Why should *I *pay for some bum to get better?" 

It's all tied in with that American dream of doing better for yourself, pulling yourself up by your bootstraps and being a raging, fabulous success. And fuck anyone who gets in your way or any commie who tries to take any of your hard eared money and give it to someone who hasn't worked as hard as you. Or something,


----------



## keybored (Mar 28, 2020)

D said:


> that catastrophe is already in motion.  Official death count today is 1246 with 85,356 cases _reported_.  Hello from NYC.


It's worse than that (1704 & 104,277) according to worldometers.


----------



## Part-timah (Mar 28, 2020)

Anju said:


> Yes, I'm optimistically hoping there will be an international coordinated effort to try and get this under control but wondering how quickly that might happen. Seems a long way off at the moment.



That ship has sailed. Dig in this is going to be an epic one (most likely).


----------



## D (Mar 28, 2020)

editor said:


> Best summed up the words of a girlfriend of a good friend I had a monster argument with a few years back in New York. She asked what I was most proud of as a British person. I responded that it was the NHS and its free healthcare for all principles (at least when it was formed)
> 
> Her response:  "Why should *I *pay for some bum to get better?"
> 
> It's all tied in with that American dream of doing better for yourself, pulling yourself up by your bootstraps and being a raging, fabulous success. And fuck anyone who gets in your way or any commie who tries to take any of your hard eared money and give it to someone who hasn't worked as hard as you. Or something,


Individualism is so very strong here.


----------



## D (Mar 28, 2020)

keybored said:


> It's worse than that (1704 & 104,277) according to worldometers.


I was looking at the CDC website when I typed that, but I'm sure it is worse than what is officially reported.  And I just realized it was yesterday's CDC update, not today's. And the federal government is not exactly coming through with reputable info right now.


----------



## editor (Mar 28, 2020)

D said:


> Individualism is so very strong here.


That was my friend Jim's girlfriend I was talking about. I was having dinner at their flat but she got so annoyed with my 'commie' principles about making sure everyone was looked after healthwise - regardless of income - that she stormed out of her own house! I've never seen her since!


----------



## teqniq (Mar 28, 2020)

FFS









						FBI: Man Plotted Attack on Hospital Amid Coronavirus Pandemic
					

Agents say the suspect was wanted in a long-running domestic terrorism investigation




					time.com


----------



## hegley (Mar 28, 2020)

D said:


> I was looking at the CDC website when I typed that, but I'm sure it is worse than what is officially reported.  And I just realized it was yesterday's CDC update, not today's. And the federal government is not exactly coming through with reputable info right now.


Johns Hopkins has good regularly updated page with loads of international information too Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center


----------



## andysays (Mar 28, 2020)

editor said:


> Best summed up the words of a girlfriend of a good friend I had a monster argument with a few years back in New York. She asked what I was most proud of as a British person. I responded that it was the NHS and its free healthcare for all principles (at least when it was formed)
> 
> Her response:  "Why should *I *pay for some bum to get better?"
> 
> It's all tied in with that American dream of doing better for yourself, pulling yourself up by your bootstraps and being a raging, fabulous success. And fuck anyone who gets in your way or any commie who tries to take any of your hard eared money and give it to someone who hasn't worked as hard as you. Or something,


The reason why is actually illustrated very well by the current situation, without a decent public health system, everyone is hugely at risk from infectious diseases, as the poor can easily infect the rich.

It's not altruism to ensure basic general health standards, it's simple self-preservation.


----------



## xes (Mar 28, 2020)

editor said:


> Best summed up the words of a girlfriend of a good friend I had a monster argument with a few years back in New York. She asked what I was most proud of as a British person. I responded that it was the NHS and its free healthcare for all principles (at least when it was formed)
> 
> Her response:  "Why should *I *pay for some bum to get better?"
> 
> It's all tied in with that American dream of doing better for yourself, pulling yourself up by your bootstraps and being a raging, fabulous success. And fuck anyone who gets in your way or any commie who tries to take any of your hard eared money and give it to someone who hasn't worked as hard as you. Or something,


I had it argued to me once a bit like this, that if they were paying for something they weren't getting, they'll just go to the doctors once a week anyway. Not enough facepalms.


----------



## Anju (Mar 28, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> That ship has sailed. Dig in this is going to be an epic one (most likely).



It does seem that way. Watched a report on townships in South Africa and the people there have no chance of containing the virus. Communities with no water, chemical toilets shared by 40 plus people.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

I have had that conversation with Americans, why should I pay for someone else? And I think it could be remembered that the NHS wasn't universally supported here in the UK when it was introduced. But this feeling is fundamentally selfish and ignores that if you yourself get ill, others will have paid for you. 

Anyhow the NHS is a commonly funded national insurance policy without actual insurance companies taking a cut for their profits and it costs a lot less than US medical care costs. The Americans I have spoken to about it say things like we don't want no socialism!


----------



## editor (Mar 28, 2020)

This is interesting and the source seems credible even if the voiceover is a bit annoying


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 28, 2020)

The more countries that experience outbreaks, the more suspicious China's figures look.


----------



## elbows (Mar 28, 2020)

Heres the link to the chart from that video.









						Covid Trends
					

Visualizing the exponential growth of COVID-19 across the world.




					aatishb.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

editor said:


> This is interesting and the source seems credible even if the voiceover is a bit annoying



Great chart, and that, is when maths is really useful.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 28, 2020)

editor said:


> This is interesting and the source seems credible even if the voiceover is a bit annoying



That's really good and clear. I've seen his physics things, which are really good. That covered lots of the basic points, I think. Well worth stressing the point re log scales that a straight line is _really bad_.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> India is taking the virus very seriously as reported on the WHO site:
> 
> Nobody is allowed out of their homes at all, for any reason!
> 
> ...


I have just seen video from India with thousands of people milling around outside trying to leave New Delhi - it seems they are directly flaunting the country's stay at home instruction.


----------



## agricola (Mar 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I have just seen video from India with thousands of people milling around outside trying to leave New Delhi - it seems they are directly flaunting the country's stay at home instruction.



TBF that instruction would, if followed without any support measures being brought in by the government, have led to people beginning to starve to death in the next week or two.  It might still do.


----------



## Doodler (Mar 28, 2020)

Trump's background as a property developer makes it second nature for him to crank out good news bullshit.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

agricola said:


> TBF that instruction would, if followed without any support measures being brought in by the government, have led to people beginning to starve to death in the next week or two.  It might still do.


Yes and it seems the most aggressive self isolation demanded by a government thus far. Perhaps it is no surprise people are ignoring it.


----------



## Cid (Mar 28, 2020)

editor said:


> This is interesting and the source seems credible even if the voiceover is a bit annoying




Yeah, he's a long-standing science youtuber, done collaborations with some other very well known science educators, generally well-respected.


----------



## editor (Mar 28, 2020)

Cid said:


> Yeah, he's a long-standing science youtuber, done collaborations with some other very well known science educators, generally well-respected.


And yet some fucking idiots will dismiss this and continue to 'ask questions' about the crisis based on a video full of unsourced random footage and unattributed bedroom 'research' compiled by TruthSeeker968 on WakeUpSheepleNow.com.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

Would we trust statistics coming out of Putin's Russia? 

Worldometer reports 1,264 cases and 4 deaths which seems very small. 

BBC Reports: Coronavirus: Russia sees no epidemic but starts shutdown. 


> "This is not a week of extra leave or holiday," explained Benjamin Kondratiev on Instagram, clarifying the president's speech. He added his own call for "self-discipline" to get through what he called the "bad period" of coronavirus.
> 
> Many Muscovites have already headed out of town to their dachas, or summer houses.
> ..
> ...


from Russia sees no epidemic but starts shutdown

Russia to Close Borders as Coronavirus Crisis Escalates


> Russia, the largest country by area, will temporarily shut all its borders starting March 30 after the number of coronavirus infections increased sharply over the last week. Health officials on Saturday reported 228 new cases of coronavirus overnight, bringing the total to 1,264, with four deaths attributed to the illness.
> 
> The order, posted on the government website, followed increasingly harsh restrictions of movements around the country. Moscow’s mayor shut all non-essential business on Saturday and recommended everyone remain at home to reduce contagion.


from Russia to Close Borders as Coronavirus Crisis Escalates

Their number look lowish but Putin and Moskow's mayor are implementing measures, closing non essential businesses, stay home - take vacation but don't travel and Russia is closing borders.


----------



## elbows (Mar 28, 2020)

You probably know my feeling on that sort of thing from previous questions about Chinas numbers, Irans numbers etc. There are countries more likely to mess with their numbers, there are countries we are more likely to suspect of such things, and then there are countries we are less likely to suspect of such things but whose numbers wont tell the whole story anyway. I dont expect any country to accurately count the number of people who die from this disease. There are ways to compensate for unavoidable limitations to counting the deaths, and when the world comes to look back on the figures in years to come, this will probably be reflected. There will be a mix of actual confirmed cases, stuff deduced broader mortality rates over the period, and estimates.

And yes, if you dont put much weight in the numbers coming from a particular country, then judging them by what measures they are actually taking, and when, can be a reasonable alternative.


----------



## elbows (Mar 28, 2020)

There is too much stuff in the most recent ECDC Risk Assessment document for me to even begin trying to quote all the bits that are interesting. Anyone who doesnt mind getting their brains stuck into this sort of document should probably take a look, its a pretty good summary of all sorts of current thinking.



			https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-seventh-update-Outbreak-of-coronavirus-disease-COVID-19.pdf
		


So I've just picked one small thing to quote from it for now. Because it suggests an approach by Ireland that people might want to look into further using other news etc sources. I dont have time to do this, but as people are interested in how we could actually do things like contact tracing properly in future, perhaps one of you might.



> In Ireland, the main tasks of contact tracing have been shifted outside public health departments in order to scale it up as transmission increases. A system has been set up within a week using an online database and call centres staffed with volunteers, military cadets and students. Existing call centres are also used. In future, as the number of cases and contacts rise, contacts may be given information via text messages instead of phone calls


 (from page 18 of the document)


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 28, 2020)

editor said:


> And yet some fucking idiots will dismiss this and continue to 'ask questions' about the crisis based on a video full of unsourced random footage and unattributed bedroom 'research' compiled by TruthSeeker968 on WakeUpSheepleNow.com.



The Jazzzy types have really blown what could have been a big moment for them - they've got a real conspiracy on their hands for a change, with officials in China covering up an outbreak in an early stages, officials in the US publicly downplaying the threat while privately issuing dire warnings and selling all their stocks, and much more, but instead of saying "told you so, motherfuckers!" the usual conspiraloons seem to be focusing on downplaying the crisis and suggesting  it's been hyped up by the media working hand-in-hand with Rothschild toilet paper conglomerates or whatever.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

Trump seems to be considering a full quarantine of New York.


----------



## teqniq (Mar 28, 2020)

Absolute scum.









						ER doctor who criticized Bellingham hospital’s coronavirus protections has been fired
					

An ER doctor has been fired after publicly decrying what he called a lack of protective measures against the novel coronavirus at PeaceHealth St. Joseph Medical Center. The hospital is the only emergency facility for some 250,000 people in the...




					www.seattletimes.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

Spain now saying all non essential workers must stay at home.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 28, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> The Jazzzy types have really blown what could have been a big moment for them - they've got a real conspiracy on their hands for a change, with officials in China covering up an outbreak in an early stages, officials in the US publicly downplaying the threat while privately issuing dire warnings and selling all their stocks, and much more, but instead of saying "told you so, motherfuckers!" the usual conspiraloons seem to be focusing on downplaying the crisis and suggesting  it's been hyped up by the media working hand-in-hand with Rothschild toilet paper conglomerates or whatever.


Almost like they're not interested in real conspiracies. If it's really happening, there's evidence, it can be proved, etc, where's the room for _my special knowledge_???


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Trump seems to be considering a full quarantine of New York.



The whole of America needs to quarantine Trump.


----------



## sparkybird (Mar 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I have just seen video from India with thousands of people milling around outside trying to leave New Delhi - it seems they are directly flaunting the country's stay at home instruction.


A friend of mine in Kerala sent m a pic of a newspaper, basically people leaving the big cities as there is no work and having to walk 'home' (I guess to extended family) with kids, often over 100km. No support from govt


----------



## donkyboy (Mar 28, 2020)

Bastards at Fox:


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

So, Trump is threatening to quarantine New York.


> the state's governor, Andrew Cuomo, said he had not discussed such measures with the president.
> 
> "I didn't speak to him about any quarantine," he told reporters shortly after he had spoken with Mr Trump by phone.
> 
> ...


From Trump 'considering quarantine on New York'



> Florida governor Ron DeSantis says his administration is looking into ways to secure the state border amid the coronavirus pandemic, saying “it’s not fair to the people of Florida” that outsiders have continued to flock to the state.
> 
> “I don’t as governor have the ability to shut down flights,” he says during his daily briefing. “But I think it’s an issue when people who are in the hot zone, then leaving the hot zone, to come to different parts of the country.
> ..
> The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Florida has soared to 3,763, more than five times the total of 706 from a week ago. Eight more deaths were reported overnight on Saturday, bringing the overall total to 54.


from US coronavirus live: Trump floats three-state quarantine as New York deaths rise to 728

It looks like New York and surrounds is a big hot spot and nearby states including Florida are complaining of New Yorkers fleeing and bringing their infection with them. It seems Trump hasn't yet discussed the possibility of a quarantine with NY governor Cuomo but will be speaking to him about now as a hospital ship is being sent to New York to assist with casualties of the coronavirus.

My bet is Trump will do the quarantine, NY is America's Wuhan at the moment and threatens to spread the virus wider across the states. Will know more later or in the next days.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 28, 2020)

Whether it should be done or not, and there is a case for something - it's really not so different from European countries closing their borders - it is absolutely bonkers that the state and federal govt aren't working together to make it happen. I fear for the US - as Katrina did before, natural disasters and crises expose its vicious system of government for what it is. States bidding against each other for equipment and driving prices up is another case in point to illustrate the dysfunction.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

Yes, at the moment it seems infected New Yorkers can just get on a flight to Florida as easy as we might catch a bus. Wuhan was a travel hub also until travel was stopped, somehow the Americans will have to prevent New Yorkers travelling by air road or sea and a quarantine could be the most sensible way. Otherwise other places in the US will face also becoming hot spots themselves.


----------



## bimble (Mar 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes and it seems the most aggressive self isolation demanded by a government thus far. Perhaps it is no surprise people are ignoring it.


They are not ignoring it. Millions of people are trying to get to their homes (labourers working in far away states from their villages) with no transport no money and no food.
twitter full of images like this.


----------



## donkyboy (Mar 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes, at the moment it seems infected New Yorkers can just get on a flight to Florida as easy as we might catch a bus. Wuhan was a travel hub also until travel was stopped, somehow the Americans will have to prevent New Yorkers travelling by air road or sea and a quarantine could be the most sensible way. Otherwise other places in the US will face also becoming hot spots themselves.



we have a family holiday booked for Orlando Florida. Flying out on May 15. We haven't cancelled yet and are trying to leave it till end of April to see if situation improves...


----------



## agricola (Mar 28, 2020)

sparkybird said:


> A friend of mine in Kerala sent m a pic of a newspaper, basically people leaving the big cities as there is no work and having to walk 'home' (I guess to extended family) with kids, often over 100km. No support from govt





its beyond horrifying what that decision has done to people


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

donkyboy said:


> we have a family holiday booked for Orlando Florida. Flying out on May 15. We haven't cancelled yet and are trying to leave it till end of April to see if situation improves...


Somehow I doubt you will be going on that holiday. 
If it were me and I could get my money back I probably would.


----------



## William of Walworth (Mar 28, 2020)

As India has been raised ....

I can't even *begin* to imagine how horrific things must be in India right now 
I've actually been avoiding reading about the lock-down there, to be honest .....
How the hell can it even be enforced at all, in such a poverty-stricken, densely populated country???


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

I think it may be equally desperate in many developing countries, and as Bill Gates noted, the developed world will have to help the developing world to protect themselves from this and find ways to go through it, otherwise the world won't recover to anything like the global village it used to be. 

The potential for misery and suffering and death is very big for developing countries.


----------



## zahir (Mar 28, 2020)

Coronavirus pandemic simulation, New York, October 2019









						Pandemic simulation exercise spotlights massive preparedness gap
					

Event 201 simulation hosted by university's Center for Health Security envisions a fast-spreading coronavirus with a devastating impact




					hub.jhu.edu
				






> With each fictional pandemic Johns Hopkins experts have designed, the takeaway lesson is the same: We are nowhere near prepared.
> "Once you're in the midst of a severe pandemic, your options are very limited," says Eric Toner, a senior scholar at the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins University. "The greatest good can happen with pre-planning."
> That center's latest pandemic simulation, Event 201, dropped participants right in the midst of an uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak that was spreading like wildfire out of South America to wreak worldwide havoc. As fictional newscasters from "GNN" narrated, the immune-resistant virus (nicknamed CAPS) was crippling trade and travel, sending the global economy into freefall. Social media was rampant with rumors and misinformation, governments were collapsing, and citizens were revolting.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

zahir said:


> Coronavirus pandemic simulation, New York, October 2019
> 
> 
> 
> ...



What a find that is!! And did policymakers act on the findings of the simulation apart from buying smallpox vaccines I don't think they did. There was also a simulation of a viral attack in London in I think 2016 and a conclusion from that simulation? The UK doesn't have enough ventilators, also not acted on.


----------



## zahir (Mar 28, 2020)

More videos of the Event 201 simulation.









						Event 201 videos including discussions and a highlights reel
					

Videos of Event 201 including discussions among high-level leaders of global businesses, governments, policy and public health and a highlights reel.




					www.centerforhealthsecurity.org


----------



## D (Mar 28, 2020)

This came in the post today. 🤣


----------



## weltweit (Mar 28, 2020)

Bill Gates in a CNN interview is urging a shutdown across the whole of the USA for a period to stop the virus. Doing things state by state or county by county won't work because if there are just 100 infected in a neighbouring area which are not stopped they will just re-infect their surroundings as they go through their exponential growth phase. He makes a compelling argument.


----------



## mx wcfc (Mar 29, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> As India has been raised ....
> 
> I can't even *begin* to imagine how horrific things must be in India right now
> I've actually been avoiding reading about the lock-down there, to be honest .....
> How the hell can it even be enforced at all, in such a poverty-stricken, densely populated country???


mrs mx is getting texts from family in India.  It ain't good.


----------



## circleline (Mar 29, 2020)

Not quoting posts here because, but:

The blokes being more susceptible to the virus must surely be down to the simple fact that they socialise more and work more at close contact than women do, generally..  

(Simpleton post)


----------



## mx wcfc (Mar 29, 2020)

circleline said:


> Not quoting posts here because, but:
> 
> The blokes being more susceptible to the virus must surely be down to the simple fact that they socialise more and work more at close contact than women do, generally..
> 
> (Simpleton post)


I'm baffled by that.  No one is socialising with anyone at the moment.  And women work just as much in healthcare etc, if not more so, than men.  What's your point?


----------



## circleline (Mar 29, 2020)

mx wcfc said:


> I'm baffled by that.  *No one is socialising with anyone at the moment. * And women work just as much in healthcare etc, if not more so, than men.  What's your point?



World statistics.  And of course we're not (socialising) at the moment.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 29, 2020)

circleline said:


> Not quoting posts here because, but:
> 
> The blokes being more susceptible to the virus must surely be down to the simple fact that they socialise more and work more at close contact than women do, generally..
> 
> (Simpleton post)



You made that up


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

Antonio Guterres, UN Secretary-General on BBC Hard Talk making the case for G20 countries to work together first on their own defeat of coronavirus and then for developing countries. Asking for a war economy and a coordinated international response. Arguing that many countries are not following WHO guidelines, and it is difficult to bring countries together even against global issues like covid-19 and climate change.

He talks so fast it is hard to mentally keep up. Basically arguing for more international co-operation because relations between the big powers have never been so disfunctional.

It is interesting to me, what he was saying was making sense, but he talked so fast that he didn't convey confidence, I think if he spoke more slowly he would be a better communicator and probably a better Secretary General also.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 29, 2020)

It's going to get ugly


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

Apparently Trump has decided against a quarantine of NY.


----------



## D (Mar 29, 2020)

Recommended viewing. This public hospital was notoriously overstressed BEFORE this epidemic.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 29, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes, at the moment it seems infected New Yorkers can just get on a flight to Florida as easy as we might catch a bus. Wuhan was a travel hub also until travel was stopped, somehow the Americans will have to prevent New Yorkers travelling by air road or sea and a quarantine could be the most sensible way. Otherwise other places in the US will face also becoming hot spots themselves.



I'm not sure how effective quarantining New York would be at this point, unless travel between all states and cities in the US was also halted - when Wuhan was locked down, there were 444 confirmed coronavirus cases in Hubei province and 571 across all of China. Florida alone now has more than six times that many cases.

According to the Johns Hopkins tracker, most cities and larger towns across the US now have as many coronavirus cases as entire Chinese provinces did at the height of the outbreak - according to China's official numbers, at least.


----------



## Anju (Mar 29, 2020)

There was a New York newspaper editor on BBC last night saying that Trump only backed down on quarantine when the state governor told him it would cause the stock market to drop. On the same show another guest said that there was no joint announcement following the G7 remote meeting because Trump wanted the virus to be referred to as the Wuhan virus.

He's going to be responsible for a lot of deaths in the US and ultimately worldwide if America isn't in a position to help elsewhere in the world.


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Mar 29, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> It’s possible but unlikely. Trump will be given a pass by his fans at the election because he’s working so hard to preserve the economy/their personal wealth and the pandemic is foreign/not his fault/couldn’t be predicted. Added to this the bonkers end-times hard core Xians who see him as an agent of their god: this “plague” will confirm their belief that it’s all panning out as they predict, so strengthen their support of Trump.
> 
> But also, it’s hard for anyone who’s not witnessed it first hand to understand how thoroughly and intractably the right hate the disenfranchised. I don’t just mean they’re politically averse, I mean they have a deeply emotional sense of fear and disgust for anyone who hasn’t successfully climbed aboard the American Dream bandwagon. Even those who are themselves poor and disenfranchised are utterly opposed to anyone who doesn’t demonstrate their adherence to the story. These adherants are going to become very much more entrenched and defensive of their myth in the coming months. They will defend their own creation story identify (pioneering, independent, self-sufficient, loyal to family and nationhood (define “nation” as applicable) ) ahead of any other factor.
> 
> ...


I doubt it. I was at a training course about 12 years ago. At MIT in Pittsburgh.
Large university city. The hotel was quite busy full of sick peoples. Because they come to the university hospitals for treatment. Unable to afford healthcare normally.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 29, 2020)

Opinion | Trump Meets Nemesis, Punisher of Hubris (Published 2020)
					

A virus exposes the folly of what the president’s base believes.




					www.nytimes.com
				




From that article:
“The word “nemesis” is too often misused. We tend to think of it as meaning a powerful, nefarious, but ultimately conquerable enemy: Vader; Voldemort; the Wicked Witch of the West. But the original Nemesis was not a villain. She was a goddess — an implacable agent of justice who gives the arrogant, insolent and wicked what they deserve.

As a matter of public health, nobody should ever suggest that the novel coronavirus represents any form of justice, divine or otherwise. It’s a virus that must be stopped.

As a matter of politics, however, it’s hard to think of a mechanism so uniquely well-suited for exposing the hubris, ignorance, prejudice, mendacity and catastrophic self-regard of the president who is supposed to lead us through this crisis.”


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I'm not sure how effective quarantining New York would be at this point, unless travel between all states and cities in the US was also halted - when Wuhan was locked down, there were 444 confirmed coronavirus cases in Hubei province and 571 across all of China. Florida alone now has more than six times that many cases.
> 
> According to the Johns Hopkins tracker, most cities and larger towns across the US now have as many coronavirus cases as entire Chinese provinces did at the height of the outbreak - according to China's official numbers, at least.
> 
> View attachment 203850


That is a pretty grim graphic. I guess now the only option is to act nationally rather than locally.


----------



## teqniq (Mar 29, 2020)

Highly irresponsible shit:


----------



## blameless77 (Mar 29, 2020)

circleline said:


> Not quoting posts here because, but:
> 
> The blokes being more susceptible to the virus must surely be down to the simple fact that they socialise more and work more at close contact than women do, generally..
> 
> (Simpleton post)




Their immune systems aren't as good at responding as women's....bad at listening?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

Somalia, coronavirus is just one more serious thing to worry about. Quite an interesting article if like me you don't know so much about conditions in Somalia atm. 



			In Somalia, coronavirus goes from fairy tale to nightmare


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

Trump and NY 


> President Donald Trump backed away from calling for a quarantine for coronavirus hotspots in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, instead directing Saturday night that a “strong Travel Advisory” be issued to stem the spread of the outbreak.
> ..
> The notion of a quarantine had been advocated by governors, including Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who sought to halt travelers from the heavily affected areas to their states. But it drew swift criticism from the leaders of the states in question, who warned it would spark panic in a populace already suffering under the virus.





> “If you start walling off areas all across the country, it would be totally bizarre, counterproductive, anti-American, anti-social,” Cuomo told CNN. He added that locking down the nation’s financial capital would shock the stock market and “paralyze the economy” at a time when Trump has indicated he’s itching to get the economy back on track.
> ..
> The governors of Florida, Maryland, South Carolina and Texas already have ordered  people arriving from the New York area to self-quarantine for at least 14 days upon arrival. In a more dramatic step, Rhode Island police have begun pulling over drivers with New York plates so that the National Guard can collect contact information and inform them of a mandatory, 14-day quarantine.


from Trump says no quarantine ‘necessary’ for coronavirus-hit New York area


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

WHO last covid-19 press briefing from 27/03/20


----------



## petee (Mar 29, 2020)

_While it ravages New York and metastasizes throughout much of the Northeast, the coronavirus is also quickly bearing down on new hot spots, sending doctors and first responders scrambling to prepare for the onslaught.

Still unable to conduct widespread testing, and fearful as the federal government fails to marshal critical supplies, officials in Boston, Detroit, Chicago, Atlanta, Milwaukee and Los Angeles are watching caseloads climb and taking extraordinary measures to prepare, all the while hoping that aggressive social-distancing measures might ward off the most dismal projections._



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/its-no-different-from-new-york-urban-centers-nationwide-gird-for-catastrophic-virus-outbreak/2020/03/28/4943e4ca-7067-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html


----------



## petee (Mar 29, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Trump and NY
> 
> 
> 
> from Trump says no quarantine ‘necessary’ for coronavirus-hit New York area



this was instantly rejected by cuomo (NY), and murphy (NJ) and lamont (CT) were non-committal. 
it's a topic here already, why trump floated the idea in the first place. he created tension and confusion, and we'll see how the trumpers spin it.
my cynical take is that he did it because he can, to show who's boss rhetorically, though not legally, as quarantines are up to governors and mayors, and the president (i believe) can't order that. others, more kindly, say he's impulsive (which is true, like an emotional teenager).


----------



## teqniq (Mar 29, 2020)

Harrassment and persecution of Palestininas continues unabated:









						Israeli forces demolish emergency coronavirus clinic for Palestinians
					

The confiscation of materials to build a community clinic in a West Bank village demonstrates how the occupation will not let up, even in times of crisis.




					english.alaraby.co.uk


----------



## sideboob (Mar 29, 2020)

petee said:


> this was instantly rejected by cuomo (NY), and murphy (NJ) and lamont (CT) were non-committal.
> it's a topic here already, why trump floated the idea in the first place. he created tension and confusion, and we'll see how the trumpers spin it.
> my cynical take is that he did it because he can, to show who's boss rhetorically, though not legally, as quarantines are up to governors and mayors, and the president (i believe) can't order that. others, more kindly, say he's impulsive (which is true, like an emotional teenager).




Looks like the gov`t has the power to call a quarentine.   Sorry, I don`t know how to post a link from my chromebook but it comes under the Public Health Service Act.  This power/task is normally delegated to the CDC.   I saw on the news (so it must be real!) that the last time a president did this was during the Spanish flu.


----------



## petee (Mar 29, 2020)

sideboob said:


> Looks like the gov`t has the power to call a quarentine.   Sorry, I don`t know how to post a link from my chromebook but it comes under the Public Health Service Act.  This power/task is normally delegated to the CDC.   I saw on the news (so it must be real!) that the last time a president did this was during the Spanish flu.



i see what you mean.





__





						Legal Authorities for Isolation and Quarantine   | Quarantine | CDC
					

Isolation and quarantine help protect the public by preventing exposure to people who have or may have a contagious disease. Page content includes the regulatory authority and definitions of isolation and quarantine.




					www.cdc.gov
				




to save my argument though, the authority is with the CDC, not the president.









						Donald Trump considered quarantining New York. Can he do that?
					

Federal quarantine rules are old and have rarely been used, leaving much about them unclear.




					qz.com
				




so, _President Donald Trump had asked the CDC on Saturday to issue the advisory after he had floated the idea of a quarantine earlier in the day._ 









						CDC issues travel advisory for New York, New Jersey, Connecticut
					

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a travel advisory urging people in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to "refrain from non-essential domestic travel" for the next two weeks.




					www.cnn.com
				




but, true,  they would scarcely say "no."


----------



## Anju (Mar 29, 2020)

I don't think these figures include whatever measures Brazil has taken but I would think that they could be in the top half as things stand.

"Experts believe far more people are likely to die. Recent modelling by researchers from Imperial College London suggested Brazil could have more than 1.1 million Covid-19 deaths if no action were taken to control the pandemic; 529,000 if only elderly people were forced to isolate; and 44,200 if drastic measures were implemented."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/29/bolsonaro-warns-health-minister-covid-19?

Saw the above article on a friend's Facebook feed and in the posts one of his friends who still lives there close to the border with Argentina has just bought a gun. Obviously only anecdotal but he seemed genuinely scared and feels he has to stay as he has a lot of family who can't or don't want to leave.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

How lockdown is being dealt with around Europe








						Coronavirus capital by capital: How are Europeans coping with shutdown?
					

Europeans face a blizzard of restrictions on their freedoms as authorities try to stop the spread.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 29, 2020)

weltweit said:


> How lockdown is being dealt with around Europe
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That's a good round-up, well worth reading.


----------



## josef1878 2.0 (Mar 29, 2020)

editor said:


> This theory seems to be gaining some traction. Any informed thoughts? I certainly had those symptoms a while back but that probably means nothing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Towards the end of last year mrs1878 was wiped out for over a week with all the symptoms of covid-19. She couldn't get out of bed, high temperature and constant unproductive cough. She recovered and went back to work. For a month after I had milder symptoms but carried on working. One by one people at work developed similar symptoms, some went off, some carried on working but the chain carried on until the Christmas break

Since last Monday mrs1878 has been on enforced leave due to her asthma and being in a risk group. This will last 13 weeks and she is climbing the walls and showing no symptoms.

I'm sure if she could get an antibodies test it would show she has had it and before the first reported cases.


----------



## teqniq (Mar 29, 2020)

I felt a bit 'off' 2-3 weeks ago. No energy, really tired, woke up in the middle of the night soaked in sweat. This lasted about 3-4 days. Maybe, possibly.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

> The president was aware of the danger from the coronavirus – but a lack of leadership has created an emergency of epic proportions
> ..
> One country acted swiftly and aggressively to detect and isolate the virus, and by doing so has largely contained the crisis. The other country dithered and procrastinated, became mired in chaos and confusion, was distracted by the individual whims of its leader, and is now confronted by a health emergency of daunting proportions.
> 
> ...



An interesting article explaining serious lapses in the response of Trump and the USA compared to South Korea etc, also the lack of leadership and missing CDC which should be at the centre, time wasted etc from: The missing six weeks: how Trump failed the biggest test of his life


----------



## Cid (Mar 29, 2020)

josef1878 2.0 said:


> Towards the end of last year mrs1878 was wiped out for over a week with all the symptoms of covid-19. She couldn't get out of bed, high temperature and constant unproductive cough. She recovered and went back to work. For a month after I had milder symptoms but carried on working. One by one people at work developed similar symptoms, some went off, some carried on working but the chain carried on until the Christmas break
> 
> Since last Monday mrs1878 has been on enforced leave due to her asthma and being in a risk group. This will last 13 weeks and she is climbing the walls and showing no symptoms.
> 
> I'm sure if she could get an antibodies test it would show she has had it and before the first reported cases.



Unless she was actually in Wuhan, that's very unlikely.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

> The coronavirus pandemic could kill up to 200,000 Americans and millions more could be infected, the US government's leading expert has warned.
> 
> Dr Anthony Fauci, the face of the Trump administration's coronavirus task force, made the prediction on Sunday.
> ..
> ...


More car makers to make ventilators - lord help us  

from: Coronavirus could infect 'millions' of Americans


----------



## bimble (Mar 29, 2020)

This bar chart just just properly scared me (my parents live in Swissland). Had no idea it was like this.


----------



## Azrael (Mar 29, 2020)

petee said:


> i see what you mean.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Just _knew_ the catch-all "Commerce Clause" would make a showing!


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

Coronavirus: Historic Ireland-China PPE flights lands in Dublin


> The Aer Lingus flight from Dublin to Beijing was the airline's first ever scheduled trip to China.
> 
> The plane, named St Ronán, touched down at about 15:00 local time on Sunday.
> 
> ...


from Historic Ireland-China PPE flights lands in Dublin


----------



## josef1878 2.0 (Mar 29, 2020)

Cid said:


> Unless she was actually in Wuhan, that's very unlikely.



Nearly, it was Wigan. The symptoms were exactly the same. Her work means she meets a lot of Chinese students who usually go home for the holidays. She might have started it, fuck knows 😥


----------



## Cid (Mar 29, 2020)

josef1878 2.0 said:


> Nearly, it was Wigan. The symptoms were exactly the same. Her work means she meets a lot of Chinese students who usually go home for the holidays. She might have started it, fuck knows 😥



They go home end of semester and come back as late as possible though (because of spring festival). There are a lot of things that go around with essentially the exact same symptoms (or at least with enough overlap). By that measure I've had it 4 years ago and 2 years ago (while I was in China   ).


----------



## agricola (Mar 29, 2020)

bimble said:


> This bar chart just just properly scared me (my parents live in Swissland). Had no idea it was like this.
> 
> View attachment 203998



Clearly, the secret is to rarely test.


----------



## bimble (Mar 29, 2020)

agricola said:


> Clearly, the secret is to rarely test.


Yes. For a little moment i forgot that this might be mostly that. At the same time ffs why aren't my folks taking it seriously etc.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 29, 2020)

agricola said:


> Clearly, the secret is to rarely test.


taps-head.gif


----------



## elbows (Mar 29, 2020)

The timing doesnt match the best knowledge about the outbreak, although I always keep in reserve the possibility that what we know about the origins is inaccurate. But that very small possibility cannot really factor much into these sorts of discussions, its so unlikely.

Generally speaking there are so many causes of influenza-like-illnesses, and it is normal that we will tend to assume that the currently most high-profile one is the one we just caught, even when it isnt.

One of the reasons medical people would really like to have this sort of pandemic wave happening at a time other than the normal season for influenza-like-illnesses,  is that it then becomes possible for assumptions to become a lot more accurate, before formal test results are available. It becomes possible to have much increased confidence that the patient thats just been admitted is probably suffering from Covid-19 rather than anything else. Its still not fool-proof, but its a much better bet.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 29, 2020)

bimble said:


> Yes. For a little moment i forgot that this might be mostly that. At the same time ffs why aren't my folks taking it seriously etc.


Swiss new cases have flattened off over the last week. They may be at, or very near, or even just past peak. And daily deaths may be flattening off as well now.  tbh I'd rather have Switzerland's numbers right now than the UK's.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Harrassment and persecution of Palestininas continues unabated:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This really shocked me. Horrendous


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

I find it somewhat disturbing that the further away from China the virus travels the less prepared the countries seem to be and the larger their expected death toll is predicted. So we have it moving early to Italy with nasty results and now expanding in the USA with even higher predicted fatalities. 

And yet there is this example South Korea which was infected early, has followed test test and quarantine and has not had a lockdown yet they appear to be the only country in the developed world that has followed this strategy, despite it apparently seems to be the least destructive strategy that is actually working, leaving China aside for the moment. 

So in the UK we have a lockdown, have largely given up on test and trace, didn't anyhow develop the testing resources to be able to do it, and are now stating 20,000 fatalities would be a good result. And the USA where the infections now seem out of control and the expected fatalities it seems will dwarf the ROW results in part because of zero preparations. 

And around the world there are the same issues, shortages of PPE for medical and care staff, shortages of ventilators, misguided political leaders, shortages of testing resources, confusing lockdown instructions and the virus running riot though unprepared and defenceless populations. 

One might have thought that countries with later infections, the UK, the USA etc, might have used their delay to prepare more thoroughly, to be ready for the fight, to have resources available and to have managed to have kept the worst of this outbreak at bay. Might have thought, but it isn't that way in practice.


----------



## josef1878 2.0 (Mar 29, 2020)

Cid said:


> They go home end of semester and come back as late as possible though (because of spring festival). There are a lot of things that go around with essentially the exact same symptoms (or at least with enough overlap). By that measure I've had it 4 years ago and 2 years ago (while I was in China   ).



I still wish she could get an antibodies test. The timing, symptoms and circumstances all add up.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

Sorted by most recent daily deaths, UK is climbing the table now in 4th place ..


----------



## little_legs (Mar 29, 2020)

Some students now left. To potentially infect others.


----------



## HAL9000 (Mar 29, 2020)

Alternative trend graph









						Covid Trends
					

Visualizing the exponential growth of COVID-19 across the world.




					aatishb.com
				





line climbing at angle, bad
line dropping down, South Korea and China, good

More explanation about the graph here...


----------



## weltweit (Mar 29, 2020)

Hi HAL9000 yes this graph is great. editor did actually already post it (earlier in this thread) but no matter. I don't know why the TV News stations haven't started using it because it is so clear to indicate where success lies and conversely where success is yet to be achieved.


----------



## elbows (Mar 29, 2020)

Trump has extended the US national level of restrictions beyond the initial 15 day period they originally sold them as being for, and they are now in place till the end of April.

He was chucking around a few different numbers and dates, but one involved the idea that the US would be at the peak of their death rate in 2 weeks, easter weekend.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 29, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Sorted by most recent daily deaths, UK is climbing the table now in 4th place ..
> 
> View attachment 204006


Need to be a bit careful with those. The figure for Germany, for instance, isn't the final one - Germany is updating several times a day. The UK is updating - well I don't know when, erratically, it appears. 

Also, sorry to be boring and carry on about this, but deaths per million population is a more meaningful figure. By that measure the Netherlands, Swiss and Belgian figures are higher.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 29, 2020)

For those interested the Portuguese Left Block statement on Covid-19








						Covid-19: Bloco de Esquerda's Political Commitee Resolution
					

The response to the pandemic crisis requires both health measures as well as economic and social protection measures.




					www.esquerda.net


----------



## zahir (Mar 30, 2020)

First death reported on Lesvos, a 76 year old with existing health conditions. Her daughter, a nurse working at two health centres on the island, has symptoms and is waiting for the results of tests. This suggests that Covid-19 is spreading on the island and is likely to affect the Moria camp.


----------



## elbows (Mar 30, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> The UK is updating - well I don't know when, erratically, it appears.



After the changing of the system, it looks like they are back to 2pm for the daily info release including deaths. They might even manage to stick to this schedule from now on, since they have increased the amount of hours they have between the end of the death reporting period and actually reporting the number to the public.


----------



## little_legs (Mar 30, 2020)




----------



## bimble (Mar 30, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Swiss new cases have flattened off over the last week. They may be at, or very near, or even just past peak. And daily deaths may be flattening off as well now.  tbh I'd rather have Switzerland's numbers right now than the UK's.


Bit delayed but if you can remember where you read that i'd be really grateful.

ETA i've found a really good data site here and its true, look like effects of the lockdown there are showing as a slowing of new cases:








						COVID-19 Info Switzerland
					

Latest updates of COVID-19 development in Switzerland




					www.corona-data.ch


----------



## ska invita (Mar 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> You probably know my feeling on that sort of thing from previous questions about Chinas numbers, Irans numbers etc. There are countries more likely to mess with their numbers,


Poland might well be in that list.
Manipulative government also on an election footing
Polish relative says they're not trusting official figures


----------



## smmudge (Mar 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I find it somewhat disturbing that the further away from China the virus travels the less prepared the countries seem to be and the larger their expected death toll is predicted. So we have it moving early to Italy with nasty results and now expanding in the USA with even higher predicted fatalities.
> 
> And yet there is this example South Korea which was infected early, has followed test test and quarantine and has not had a lockdown yet they appear to be the only country in the developed world that has followed this strategy, despite it apparently seems to be the least destructive strategy that is actually working, leaving China aside for the moment.
> 
> ...



Well hopefully it will be a very steep learning curve for western countries who thought we would never have to deal with this in our lifetimes. Because for all the "unprecedented" and "once in a generation" if you think about it it's not unprecedented, we have seen it before (just not so much in this country) and there already are tried and tested ways of successfully dealing with it. Maybe now governments will realise that having resources to properly deal with novel viruses aren't a waste of money, the risk is very real and so are the benefits.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

smmudge UK did a simulation of a virus attack back in 2016 and the simulation told them, amongst other things that we didn't have enough ventilators. If lessons were learnt, they weren't acted on.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> smmudge UK did a simulation of a virus attack back in 2016 and the simulation told them, amongst other things that we didn't have enough ventilators. If lessons were learnt, they weren't acted on.


So, this simulation was Exercise Cygnus in October 2016. 



> The exercise showed that the pandemic would cause the country's health system to collapse from a lack of resources,[2][3] with the Chief Medical Officer at the time stating that a lack of medical ventilators was a serious problem.[4]


from: Exercise Cygnus - Wikipedia

More information here: https://www.england.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/board-paper-300317-item-10.pdf


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 30, 2020)

ska invita said:


> Poland might well be in that list.
> Manipulative government also on an election footing
> Polish relative says they're not trusting official figures




I think it's safe to say everyone is massaging like crazy. The whole world.


----------



## AmateurAgitator (Mar 30, 2020)

An animal rights activist explains the connection between the virus and how it relates to our treatment of animals/factory farming


----------



## teqniq (Mar 30, 2020)

Twitter deletes two Bolsonaro tweets questioning containment
					

Twitter deleted Sunday two tweets from the official account of Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro in which it questioned the containment decided to fight against the coronavirus, because it had &#8…




					www.web24.news


----------



## bimble (Mar 30, 2020)

Erm. I'm seeing claims to have identified 'patient zero' as a named shrimp seller in wuhan market. That belongs in the conspiracy thread at this point doesn't it?


----------



## teqniq (Mar 30, 2020)

That's got to be nigh-on impossible to prove.


----------



## elbows (Mar 30, 2020)

little_legs said:


>




Same as the UK then.


----------



## Numbers (Mar 30, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Mar 30, 2020)

I have always been skeptical about the low numbers of asymptomatic cases reported and the insistence by some authorities that they are a negligible factor. Havent had many excuses to talk about it in the last month, but now:









						Exclusive: A third of virus cases may be ‘silent carriers’, classified data suggests
					

More than 43,000 people in China had tested positive without immediate symptoms by the end of February and were quarantined.




					www.scmp.com
				






> More than 43,000 people in China had tested positive for Covid-19 by the end of February but had no immediate symptoms, a condition typically known as asymptomatic, according to the data. They were placed in quarantine and monitored but were not included in the official tally of confirmed cases, which stood at about 80,000 at the time.





> A growing number of studies are now questioning the WHO’s earlier statement that asymptomatic transmission was “extremely rare”. A report by the WHO’s international mission after a trip to China estimated that asymptomatic infections accounted for 1 to 3 per cent of cases, according to a European Union paper.





> Based on their research, Nishiura put the proportion of asymptomatic Japanese patients evacuated from Wuhan, ground zero of the outbreak in China, at 30.8 per cent – similar to the classified Chinese government data.





> But official figures from South Korea – which had carried out nearly 300,000 tests on all close contacts of its confirmed cases as of Wednesday – are the most comparable to China’s. More than 20 per cent of the asymptomatic cases reported to the Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention remained without symptoms until they were discharged from hospital.
> 
> “Korea currently has a significantly higher rate of asymptomatic cases than other countries, perhaps due to our extensive testing,” Jeong Eun-kyeong, director of South Korea’s CDC, told a press briefing on March 16.


----------



## LDC (Mar 30, 2020)

FFS, can people STOP posting random Youtube videos and pictures without comment as to why they are useful and relevant to the topic at hand which is 'Worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates'.

Fuck off to Facebook if you just want to do that shit.


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 30, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> It's shit in Europe & North America, but nowt like it's going to be in Africa, Middle East & South America.



How the fuck are poor people in Africa going to deal with this? The poorest are walking miles just to get water so how on earth are they going to wash hands.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> I have always been skeptical about the low numbers of asymptomatic cases reported and the insistence by some authorities that they are a negligible factor. Havent had many excuses to talk about it in the last month, but now:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




So this chimes with the reports we're hearing from emergency rooms that whatever else people are being scanned for, every single person is showing some degree of covid in the lungs, with no reported symptoms.


----------



## elbows (Mar 30, 2020)

Yeah, ground-glass opacity showing on CT scans even in asymptomatic cases.


----------



## xes (Mar 30, 2020)

A very tearful doctor in Spain plays a recording from a nurse in Madrid saying that they are no longer giving ICU to anyone over 65. 



Embedded media from this media site is no longer available


----------



## AmateurAgitator (Mar 30, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> FFS, can people STOP posting random Youtube videos and pictures without comment as to why they are useful and relevant to the topic at hand which is 'Worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates'.
> 
> Fuck off to Facebook if you just want to do that shit.


There is a thumbnail with text on it.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Mar 30, 2020)

Count Cuckula said:


> Ever heard of a thumbnail? There is text on it.


Ever heard of the forum rules and guidelines?

*Content-free posts are not permitted.*_ Posts containing nothing more than links to websites or video files are not permitted. Please explain the nature and relevance of the linked content as a courtesy to users._


----------



## elbows (Mar 30, 2020)

Not much time to talk about WHO politics and 'diplomacy' these days, but at least I got a chance to do that earlier in the pandemic. And I should file this here:









						Senior WHO adviser appears to dodge question on Taiwan's Covid-19 response
					

Canadian Bruce Aylward, who visited Wuhan in February, appeared to hang up or be cut off when pressed on Taipei’s record




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> After the changing of the system, it looks like they are back to 2pm for the daily info release including deaths. They might even manage to stick to this schedule from now on, since they have increased the amount of hours they have between the end of the death reporting period and actually reporting the number to the public.



Well so much for that theory, I've not seen any numbers for today yet.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

I gather 2 UK flights from Peru with UK Nationals have now arrived back in the UK.

FCO estimates there may be as many as a million Britons still abroad.


----------



## bimble (Mar 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> Well so much for that theory, I've not seen any numbers for today yet.


Think they're out now?
"The number of people who have died in England after contracting coronavirus now stands at 1,284 – a rise of 159 from yesterday – NHS England has said.
The patients were aged between 32 and 98 years old and all but four, aged between 56 and 87 years old, had underlying health conditions, according to the PA news agency."(guardian)


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> Well so much for that theory, I've not seen any numbers for today yet.


Is there any logic to their current system?


----------



## bimble (Mar 30, 2020)

Victor Orban has gone for the full authoritarian power grab. Maybe he is just the first .


----------



## elbows (Mar 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Is there any logic to their current system?



They probably suffer from specific delays, reporting issues, system issues and perhaps also staffing issues. I keep hoping it will settle down.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

Apparently Singapore also does not have a lockdown.


----------



## editor (Mar 30, 2020)

Religion. FFS. 








						Churchgoers all over world come to terms with physical distancing advice
					

Services from Moscow to Rio go ahead as some clerics disregard coronavirus risk




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

editor said:


> Religion. FFS.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Indeed, in one of the TV bulletins I watched yesterday there were a couple of Italian women squeezing themselves into a tiny chapel. One of them said it was impossible to be infected in a church, and she was … a doctor


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

Spain: lockdown is intensified, unessential workers are not allowed to travel to their workplace and have to stay at home.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

In NY a hospital is setting up tents in Central Park to treat covid-19 infected patients.


----------



## David Clapson (Mar 30, 2020)

Don't worry, a cure has been found. It definitely works in the Yoonited States, and no doubt we can get it here if we pay up.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 30, 2020)

Fucking nutters.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

Sweden perseveres with its zero restrictions, wonder for how much longer, Worldometer reports 4,028 cases and 146 deaths.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Is there any logic to their current system?


tbf I'd rather they were delayed a bit than getting it wrong. They are releasing figures for each bit of Britain separately, but England is a big place with  lots of local reporting to collate. btw the reason Germany updates several times a day is because each state reports separately. The German reporting appears to be very regular, unsurprisingly. German figures continue to look very promising.


----------



## MrSki (Mar 30, 2020)

Good to see that some countries are giving help where needed. Shame the UK lacks friends.


----------



## andysays (Mar 30, 2020)

David Clapson said:


> Don't worry, a cure has been found. It definitely works in the Yoonited States, and no doubt we can get it here if we pay up.



Can we please keep this sort of stuff off the serious threads.

There are plenty of Looney Tunes threads if people really must post this nonsense


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

Coronavirus: Countries reject Chinese-made equipment


> A number of European governments have rejected Chinese-made equipment designed to combat the coronavirus outbreak.
> 
> Thousands of testing kits and medical masks are below standard or defective, according to authorities in Spain, Turkey and the Netherlands.
> ..
> ...



There is a lot more in the article from: Countries reject Chinese-made equipment


----------



## elbows (Mar 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Sweden perseveres with its zero restrictions, wonder for how much longer, Worldometer reports 4,028 cases and 146 deaths.



It is not zero restrictions. Next time I have a chance to look or something obvious changes, I will post again on the thread about Sweden.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> It is not zero restrictions. Next time I have a chance to look or something obvious changes, I will post again on the thread about Sweden.


I think they are permitting socialising in pubs and cafes and I think also gatherings of up to 500 people but no more. Is that what you meant?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

China bars foreign visitors as imported cases rise


> China has announced a temporary ban on all foreign visitors, even if they have visas or residence permits.
> 
> The country is also limiting Chinese and foreign airlines to one flight per week, and flights must not be more than 75% full.
> 
> ...





> Although the rules seem dramatic, many foreign airlines had already stopped flying to China - and a number of cities already had restrictions for arrivals.
> 
> Last month, for example, Beijing ordered everyone returning to the city into a 14-day quarantine.



from: China bars foreign visitors as imported cases rise

It seems China has had only one homegrown transmission in the last days but 54 from visitors from overseas. I can imagine they are keen to squash the possibility of a new outbreak of community transmission. They say that 565 of their total deaths are described a imported.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> China bars foreign visitors as imported cases rise



How ironic, considering they moaned about Trump, and some other countries, banning travel from China, when this first kicked-off.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> How ironic, considering they moaned about Trump, and some other countries, banning travel from China, when this first kicked-off.


 
I was moaning that UK was weeks ago still letting flights in from warm and hot spots. Well now EasyJet has grounded their entire fleet and I expect others will follow, hopefully community transmission will be all we have to worry about here in the UK.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

Trump extends US guidelines beyond Easter


> President Donald Trump has said federal coronavirus guidelines such as social distancing will be extended across the US until at least 30 April.
> 
> He had previously suggested that they could be relaxed as early as Easter, which falls in mid-April.
> ..
> ...





> He said the decision to extend social distancing was made after he heard that "2.2 million people could have died if we didn't go through with all of this", adding that if the death toll could be restricted to less than 100,000 "we all together have done a very good job".
> 
> Mr Trump had previously said that Easter - 10-13 April - would be a "beautiful time" to be able to open at least some sections of the country. On Sunday he said that lifting restrictions at Easter was "just an aspiration".



from Trump extends US virus guidelines to end of April

Trump seems all  over the place with his pronouncements but Dr Fauci mentioning 100,000 fatalities and Trump saying this would be a good job is worrying. 100,000 people is a lot of people to lose, and the USA had a lot of warning from December 2019 when the virus first started its rampage in Wuhan China. Did they really think it wouldn't come to America? Or did they just waste time that they could have been preparing and stocking up on supplies PPE Testing kits etc etc ?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Trump extends US guidelines beyond Easter
> 
> 
> from Trump extends US virus guidelines to end of April
> ...


By population, their 100,000 is exactly the same as our 20,000. However, given the distribution of the US epidemic, a big chunk of those fatalities will come from the one hotspot around New York/Jersey City.

fwiw I think both are rotten as targets - in and of themselves they contain an implicit admittance of initial failure to act. But it strikes me as partly expectation control and politicking. See, we expected 100,000 and _only_ got 50,000. Look how good we were. Or in Trump's case, how GREAT we are.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

Oh, and this: 


> *What's the situation in the US?*
> Nationwide measures mean citizens must continue to avoid non-essential travel, going to work, and eating at restaurants or bars. Gatherings are limited to groups of under 10 people.
> 
> But stricter restrictions apply to millions in some of the worst-hit states.



I didn't know the US was stopping people from going to work.


----------



## David Clapson (Mar 30, 2020)

Sweden has a sensible population, trusted to do the right thing. We can only look on with envy.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 30, 2020)

David Clapson said:


> Sweden has a sensible population, trusted to do the right thing. We can only look on with envy.


We'll see. What's the weather like there at the moment? The Swedes normally pour outside as soon as the sun comes out. A nice sunny weekend will be the test.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

The FT has a good summary of the world situation, free to read, including a chart of prominent cities and regions instead of countries which is useful at comparing hot spots. 

from: Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

> The Asian city-state of Singapore and the territory of Hong Kong are on a different trajectory in terms of the growth in case numbers. The rate of increase has so far been relatively contained through rapid and strict measures.


from the FT Article linked to above. 

Singapore and Hong Kong despite both being high travel locations are showing reduced growth of infections compared to other countries in the region. 

Worldometer stats 30/03/2020: 
Singapore - 879 cases 3 fatalities 
Hong Kong - 642 cases 4 fatalities 

Singapore and Hong Kong both had historic ties with Britain, Hong Kong has many communication ties with China, Shenzen being a neighbour and many in Hong Kong were very critical that their government left travel with China open, after the Chinese epidemic was established. 



> Hong Kong - The territory - a special administrative region of China - has so far been able to avoid the contagion seen elsewhere, thanks partly to a quick government response.
> 
> In January, cross-border travel with mainland China was slashed. Soon afterwards, health workers went on strike to demand a total border shutdown.


from Hong Kong to quarantine all arrivals from abroad
I can't see if HK did freeze travel from China, I seem to recall that they did, but they certainly seem to have low cases and deaths, if the figures are to be believed. 

Singapore 





> As of 30 March 2020, 12pm, 16 more cases of COVID-19 infection have been discharged from hospital. To date, 228 have fully recovered from the infection and have been discharged from hospitals or community isolation facilities.
> 
> Separately, the Ministry of Health (MOH) has also confirmed an additional 35 cases of COVID-19 infection in Singapore, of which 9 are imported and 26 are local cases who have no recent travel history abroad.


from COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019)

Safe-Distancing Ambassadors are deployed to help ensure that safe distancing measures are complied with. They do not issue fines.

They also have MOH (ministry of health) contact tracing teams 
from MOH | Updates on COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) Local Situation



> Singaporean lawyer Iman Ibrahim was enjoying her snowboarding holiday in Italy, Switzerland and Austria this month when the coronavirus outbreak in Europe suddenly turned the trip into a race home. With borders and mountain resorts closing around her and her flight back to Singapore cancelled, she drove to Germany and caught whatever plane she could back to the south-east Asian city state. “The situation was changing every few hours . . . but once you’re back in Singapore you know everything is efficient and you will be looked after,” she said.


from Subscribe to read | Financial Times
I couldn't read any more as I don't have a subscription atm. 

I wanted to be more comprehensive but there isn't much easy to find information in English.


----------



## 2hats (Mar 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> from Subscribe to read | Financial Times
> I couldn't read any more as I don't have a subscription atm.





> Singaporean lawyer Iman Ibrahim was enjoying her snowboarding holiday in Italy, Switzerland and Austria this month when the coronavirus outbreak in Europe suddenly turned the trip into a race home.
> 
> With borders and mountain resorts closing around her and her flight back to Singapore cancelled, she drove to Germany and caught whatever plane she could back to the south-east Asian city state. “The situation was changing every few hours . . . but once you’re back in Singapore you know everything is efficient and you will be looked after,” she said. Ms Ibrahim did not know just how lucky she was to have made it home to the city, an international financial hub known for its quasi-authoritarian but effective government. Three days after her return, she tested positive for the coronavirus.
> 
> ...


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

That's great 2hats thanks, an interesting article. There are things they are doing which the UK public might not support, like the surveillance of people, their movements and what have you


----------



## Anju (Mar 30, 2020)

editor said:


> Religion. FFS.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yes, religion FFS. It's going to be a big problem in many countries fight against this.

Claimed the church had installed a ventilation system that kills the virus and encouraged people to shake hands. Doubt anything will happen to him but at least it might send a message to others.
Florida Sheriff Arrests Trump-Loving Pastor Who Refused to Stop Holding Packed Services Amid Pandemic


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Mar 30, 2020)

This thing with the evangelists and hard core Xtians defying the pandemic is kinda weird. They’ve been promoting the notion of Revelation, End Times and all that with enormous enthusiasm for decades. Why are they trying to cast it out and banish it, or ignoring it, when it fits their narrative so well? This is what they’ve predicted and (in some quarters) desired. That idiot televangelist is a blasphemer! Isn't plague and pestilence supposed to be the advent of the second coming ?




littlebabyjesus said:


> We'll see. What's the weather like there at the moment? The Swedes normally pour outside as soon as the sun comes out. A nice sunny weekend will be the test.




But more importantly, apparently one of the reasons Sweden is doing relatively well is because a large proportion of their population lives alone, so social isolation is kinda built into their lifestyle.









						Could the Swedish lifestyle help fight coronavirus?
					

Swedes are used to living alone, following rules and championing innovation. How much will these social norms help during the coronavirus crisis?




					www.bbc.com


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 30, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> But more importantly, apparently one of the reasons Sweden is doing relatively well is because a large proportion of their population lives alone, so social isolation is kinda built into their lifestyle.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Well we'll see if they continue to resist a full lockdown. It is certainly an interesting test case to run alongside all the shutdowns. If Sweden does stay under control without a lockdown due to general civil obedience, it will show I think that lockdowns don't need to be draconian to work. That's my suspicion - that the excessive rules now in Spain, for instance, are actually making little difference, that the important bit is the softer lockdown measures that the UK currently has, closing stuff, asking people to stay home and minimise contact. That's why the idiotic heavy-handed policing we're seeing and the petty dobbing in of neighbours having visitors is annoying me.


----------



## quimcunx (Mar 30, 2020)

I saw something the other day where a woman was going to church. 'You cant catch covid in a church [......... ] I'm a doctor' 

As for Sweden unless their work culture is very different from ours people will not take time off work as quickly and for as long as they ought.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> I saw something the other day where a woman was going to church. 'You cant catch covid in a church [......... ] I'm a doctor'
> ..


Yes, I saw that, it was a couple of Italian women and when the one said - can't catch it in church and I am a doctor - she was grinning widely which made me wonder if she was pulling the reporter's leg!


----------



## mx wcfc (Mar 30, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> But more importantly, apparently one of the reasons Sweden is doing relatively well is because a large proportion of their population lives alone, so social isolation is kinda built into their lifestyle.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Actual quote from a Swedish aunt in an email 2 days ago 
"Bjorn says self isolation suits the Swedish people, we do it every day!"

(Bjorn grew up in England and now lives in Sweden, so has some insight into this!)


----------



## Flavour (Mar 30, 2020)

lots of noise now about dispute between the WHO and Taiwan - the latter accusing the former of repeating PRC lies on victim numbers, as well as repeating PRC stuff on community transmission (which turned out not to be true) from early January. Taiwan not a member of UN of course and treated badly by UN orgs who are seen as being in PRC's pocket. this video sort of says it all really:


More here:








						Senior WHO adviser appears to dodge question on Taiwan's Covid-19 response
					

Canadian Bruce Aylward, who visited Wuhan in February, appeared to hang up or be cut off when pressed on Taipei’s record




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## weltweit (Mar 30, 2020)

Does anyone know if Sweden are doing extensive testing contact tracing and isolation? Perhaps they are trying the South Korea / Singapore route?


----------



## Azrael (Mar 31, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Well we'll see if they continue to resist a full lockdown. It is certainly an interesting test case to run alongside all the shutdowns. If Sweden does stay under control without a lockdown due to general civil obedience, it will show I think that lockdowns don't need to be draconian to work. That's my suspicion - that the excessive rules now in Spain, for instance, are actually making little difference, that the important bit is the softer lockdown measures that the UK currently has, closing stuff, asking people to stay home and minimise contact. That's why the idiotic heavy-handed policing we're seeing and the petty dobbing in of neighbours having visitors is annoying me.


English police chiefs already having to rein overzealous officers in.

Personally, I've accepted lockdown as a cruel necessity, but have never promoted it for its own sake, nor do I disagree with the "nudge unit's" fears about its human and economic toll. It's a disgrace we ever had to impose it, born of disastrous policy choices, and all focus needs to be on implementing an exit plan ASAP, before the thing collapses under its own weight.

Sweden still appear to be going for a version of the dreaded "herd immunity" experiment, instead of mass testing and contact tracing like Iceland has undertaken. It's terrifying how deeply fatalism's become embedded in Western medical establishments.


----------



## elbows (Mar 31, 2020)

Sweden has its own thread by the way. 

Sweden goes for the laid back approach, with gatherings of up to 500 permitted


----------



## Azrael (Mar 31, 2020)

Damning indictment of Swedish policy here.

This defeatist quote from Anders Tegnell, her chief epidemiologist, is striking: "Of course, we’re going into a phase in the epidemic where we’ll see a lot more cases in the next few weeks, more people in the ICU, but that’s just like any other country – nowhere has been able to slow down the spread considerably."

This is flatly untrue, as the well known examples from Asia testify. What is this pigheaded refusal to learn from the most successful countries?


----------



## Azrael (Mar 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> Sweden has its own thread by the way.
> 
> Sweden goes for the laid back approach, with gatherings of up to 500 permitted


Thanks, will try keep any further discussion there.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 31, 2020)

Italy and Spain still seem to be the worst hit European nations, with France and the UK closely following. Germany still has low numbers of deaths but may eventually follow everyone else behind Italy. Sweden, as discussed, is so far following a slightly different route with no lockdown as yet and still gatherings of up to 500 people permitted. They could still change course though. The UK at the London Excel centre in constructing this hospital may kit it out with a total of 4,000 beds which would make it the largest hospital in Europe, perhaps the world. There is also progress on the emergency manufacture of ventilators. 

Europe seems to have fixed its colours to the mast now and time will tell as to how many fatalities will eventually come through. There is also injury to consider, I understand severely afflicted patients can have permanent lung damage (scarring) so despite surviving the virus the quality of their ongoing lives may be severely affected. 

After extensive measures China seems to be emerging from their crisis, they are now banning incoming travel as their own community transmission seems to be very low and they fear the arrival of infected incomers. Outside of Hubei factory output and exports are picking up toward pre crisis levels, despite that the virus can live on hard surfaces and cardboard packaging for some time. However the UK EU and US customers for these goods may be in a bad way to receive them as factory closures and furlaughs are taking place. Inside Hubei, and in Wuhan, restrictions are being slowly eased. 

Hong Kong and Singapore are both reporting low levels of infection and less than 10 fatalities each. And South Korea persists with a testing and isolating regime without implementing any kind of lockdown. 

India, the second most populated country announced a strict lockdown where people were not permitted to leave their homes for any reason. Despite the strictness of this edict, many thousands of migrant workers who lost their jobs began to leave cities like New Delhi to make their way home mostly on foot. 

A part of news focus is now on the USA which has become the nation with the most confirmed cases with a major hot spot being New York which today received a Navy hospital ship to try and reduce pressures on medical facilities. Tented field hospitals are being established in Central Park. White house medical advisors have said that 100,000 deaths would be a good result and it has been pointed out by lbj that this is the same ratio to population that 20,000 is for the UK which UK advisers have also said would be a good result. There is a level of social distancing being requested in the US and a level of lockdown. At the behest of states like Florida President Trump claims to have been considering a quarantine of NY and surrounding states, he backed down and accepted instead a strongly worded travel advisory. 

It remains easier to know what is happening in English speaking areas of the world or parts of the world where English speaking journalists are engaged. The top 7 countries ranked by total reported fatalities so far are in order starting from the greatest: Italy, Spain, China, USA, France, Iran, UK. 

Some figures may be disputed.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 31, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Damning indictment of Swedish policy here.
> 
> This defeatist quote from Anders Tegnell, her chief epidemiologist, is striking: "Of course, we’re going into a phase in the epidemic where we’ll see a lot more cases in the next few weeks, more people in the ICU, but that’s just like any other country – nowhere has been able to slow down the spread considerably."
> 
> This is flatly untrue, as the well known examples from Asia testify. What is this pigheaded refusal to learn from the most successful countries?


Looking at the developing patterns, what we appear to be seeing everywhere it's been tried is that lockdown works. The exponential growth in new cases has been arrested in the time frame predicted. If the shape of China's outbreak is anything to go by, new cases will start to drop sharply over the next week, and deaths around 10 days after that. 

The quote above smacks of 'Swedish exceptionalism'. I hope he's right, but why would he be? My money would still be on a Swedish lockdown sooner rather than later.


----------



## Azrael (Mar 31, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Looking at the developing patterns, what we appear to be seeing everywhere it's been tried is that lockdown works. The exponential growth in new cases has been arrested in the time frame predicted. If the shape of China's outbreak is anything to go by, new cases will start to drop sharply over the next week, and deaths around 10 days after that.
> 
> The quote above smacks of 'Swedish exceptionalism'. I hope he's right, but why would he be? My money would still be on a Swedish lockdown sooner rather than later.


Likewise. Everywhere that's tried this has panicked and dumped it in a heartbeat when a wave of harsh reality swept it away. Several Dutch provinces even rebelled and introduced community testing when things got bad. Swedish exceptionalism's heading the way of American exceptionalism, British exceptionalism, Dutch exceptionalism ...


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 31, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Italy and Spain still seem to be the worst hit European nations, with France and the UK closely following. Germany still has low numbers of deaths but may eventually follow everyone else behind Italy.


I don't think that characterisation is quite right tbh. I suspect that Italy and Spain will end up with maybe 2-3 times more deaths than the likes of France and the UK, with Germany much smaller than that. Signs are that lockdown is working in all those countries, and the signs in Germany are good, tbh. Daily deaths may even be close to peak there - the figures suggest that the extensive early testing plus general robust and well-prepared nature of its health service combine to give it a hugely better prognosis. China's peak of daily deaths was around 150, and it ended up with just over 3,000. Even if those figures are suspect, the general shape probably has some truth to it. On that, Germany may be headed for as little as around 3,000 total deaths by the time the sharp decline in numbers sets in.

That may prove to be over-optimistic, but it's looked likely for a few days now, and every day's figures bear it out. I think the eventual numbers are going to look very different by country. It's predicated on the assumption that lockdown works, but lockdown does appear to work.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 31, 2020)

As I understand it early infections in the German population were young people returning from Skiing holidays in Italy, being young and fit they didn't get very ill, if lockdown measures work to protect more elderly Germans you could be right that they will experience lower fatalities, and they do have a very developed health sector.


----------



## Azrael (Mar 31, 2020)

littlebabyjesus

It'll inevitably work for a time by breaking infection chains and slowing the spread, but as shown by the immense pressure it's coming under in Italy, will fail disastrously if treated as an end in itself. I know the West seems determined to ignore Asia's best practices while being panicked into adopting one of her nations' most draconian, but we must note that not even Beijing tried to keep a lockdown going indefinitely. From the start, they viewed it as a means to the end of alternative means of suppression, and rushed to end it. There's only so much that people can, and will, take.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 31, 2020)

Azrael said:


> littlebabyjesus
> 
> It'll inevitably work for a time by breaking infection chains and slowing the spread, but as shown by the immense pressure it's coming under in Italy, will fail disastrously if treated as an end in itself. I know the West seems determined to ignore Asia's best practices while being panicked into adopting one of her nations' most draconian, but we must note that not even Beijing tried to keep a lockdown going indefinitely. From the start, they viewed it as a means to the end of alternative means of suppression, and rushed to end it. There's only so much that people can, and will, take.


Yeah, there is that. I still don't quite see what the exit strategy is from this (and neither does the UK govt by the looks of it with the recent lockdown for six months comment). My hope is that mass-testing will become viable. God help me, I'm pinning my hopes on the same thing Trump is hoping for.


----------



## elbows (Mar 31, 2020)

Latest modelling tries to estimate how many deaths without the measures compared to with them, in a whole bunch of countries in Europe, including UK.

I dont have the time/energy to quote from it at the moment, if anyone else is up for that then you will certainly find a bunch of numbers of note in it. Plus its a handy reference as to what measures countries implemented, and when.



			https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf


----------



## weltweit (Mar 31, 2020)

I wonder what views you all have about the trust or lack of that we can have in the published numbers. It is easy to look at sites like Worldometer and take the numbers at face value. 

Some regimes may have their own reasons for tweaking their figures while others are just unable to give accurate numbers. 

Even in the UK, deaths that occur at home have not been added as deaths according to covid-19 and were not until recently tested for the virus post mortem. Only deaths in hospital where the patient was tested positive were counted till recently.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 31, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I wonder what views you all have about the trust or lack of that we can have in the published numbers. It is easy to look at sites like Worldometer and take the numbers at face value.
> 
> Some regimes may have their own reasons for tweaking their figures while others are just unable to give accurate numbers.
> 
> Even in the UK, deaths that occur at home have not been added as deaths according to covid-19 and were not until recently tested for the virus post mortem. Only deaths in hospital where the patient was tested positive were counted till recently.


That means that the actual numbers are underestimates, but it doesn't mean we can't spot trends. So for instance, finally UK daily hospital admissions have stopped growing. That's why I'm optimistic that the assumptions behind the lockdown are correct - because that's exactly what would be predicted about a week after the start of lockdown. It means that lockdown does produce a point at which we step off the exponential escalator. Sadly that final sunny weekend when half the country appeared to be out and about probably did a huge amount of damage. The one time we needed to have some rain!

It also means that I don't see how the Oxford model's prediction that half the country was already infected can be right. I think events may be proving that model wrong even before we start testing.


----------



## Azrael (Mar 31, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yeah, there is that. I still don't quite see what the exit strategy is from this (and neither does the UK govt by the looks of it with the recent lockdown for six months comment). My hope is that mass-testing will become viable. God help me, I'm pinning my hopes on the same thing Trump is hoping for.


Targeted quarantine achieved by a mix of mass testing (swabs and antibody) and contact tracing looks to be the only viable option to try and ease off the current mass quarantine. Combined with successful drug treatments to drastically reduce the pressure on hospitals.

On the latter, Asia moved fast, taking a kitchen cabinet approach and slinging every potential antiviral and other drug at the disease in the hope that something worked. After a sluggish start, other European countries have done likewise. Germany particularly has emphasized that keeping people from ever reaching the critical stage is at least as important as ICU capacity, perhaps moreso, and there's been a markedly low number of critical cases there. Whether her treatment regime's helped is too early to say, but she's at least pursuing that goal.

Am very worried about the physical and mental effect on British medics if therapeutic nihilism sees a surge of cases deteriorate and head into ICU where the prognosis is grim. Hoping a watertight trial abroad, if successful, could get drugs rushed through here.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 31, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Germany particularly has emphasized that keeping people from ever reaching the critical stage is at least as important as ICU capacity, perhaps moreso, and there's been a markedly low number of critical cases there.


Yes, the UK is recognising this now as well. Why on earth are they not working together much much more on this? That's got to be one lesson to take from this mess. Each country with its own chief medical officer, and the way they talk, are they even talking to one another? They don't sound like they are sometimes.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 31, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Targeted quarantine achieved by a mix of mass testing (swabs and antibody) and contact tracing looks to be the only viable option to try and ease off the current mass quarantine. Combined with successful drug treatments to drastically reduce the pressure on hospitals.


On this, yes that sounds dead right. So the future could be opening things up again but still with a significant number of people ordered to self-isolate, and that becoming the new reality until a vaccine or brilliant new treatment is developed. We're not going to be hugging strangers any time soon.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 31, 2020)

weltweit said:


> As I understand it early infections in the German population were young people returning from Skiing holidays in Italy, being young and fit they didn't get very ill


Yes and no. That may well just be an artefact of Germany's testing regime. On current figures, Germany has three times more cases and fewer than half the deaths of the UK. That is of course nonsense - the UK probably has a higher infection rate than Germany, including lots of younger people. They've just not been testing.

One effect of that testing regime, of course, is that those younger people who didn't get very ill but were diagnosed nonetheless could be prevented from passing it on to older people.


----------



## Maltin (Mar 31, 2020)

I think one thing to bear in mind with all this talk of Germany is that they are further behind on the timeline. By my calculations, they are on about day 19 of deaths compared to the UK on about day 26.

Germany are currently on 5.4 deaths per million. At the same stage, the other major European countries had:

Spain 48.3
Italy 10.5
UK 5.0
France 3.9

The Imperial College article that Elbows posted last night was interesting and one thing that it added to my data was the dates of interventions by the state.

According to their dates, based on days since the first deaths reported, Germany were the earliest to implement social distancing measures (after about 3 days of deaths) and a lockdown after 11 days.

Interestingly, Spain too apparently introduced their lockdown after 11 days, however, they had a death rate of 2.9 deaths per million compared to Germany at 0.6 at the same time. Eight days since Germany's lockdown, deaths have increased 8.7 times compared to 16.7 in Spain.  

The Imperial article groups the UK with Germany as acting early but the UK introduced their lockdown the same time as Italy after around 20 days of deaths, with the UK being on 6.3 deaths per million compared to Italy's 13.8 at the same time.

For the data at the point where the UK are at currently (after first recorded death), the deaths per million are:

Spain 156
Italy 42
UK 21
France 20


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Mar 31, 2020)

Poland are tightening up the lockdown measures as of midnight tonight.

New rules:

Only go out one at a time, that includes family members. Everyone needs to keep at least 2m apart. (rules don't apply for small children or if you are a carer)
Shops are only allowed to have 3 x as many people in the shop as till points.

Sucks.


Reckon this is on the back of a big jump in deaths and photos circulating of people going to a market somewhere up north.

Generally everyone's been very good. And our day on day figures have been dropping for some time.

I've done this visual of the timeline (snipped from Wiki and added my own annotations). You can see that 2 weeks after the first case there was a drop in transmission rate. Tallies up with what I witnessed that people were jittery as soon as the first case was announced. These are the official figures so it's all we've got to go on. Poland currently doing 4000 tests per day, which is kinda crap but everyone's in that boat. We only have 30 labs in the whole of Poland who can do it. Needless to say no one knows the actual number but it's useful for seeing trends, anyway.

You can see Polish response was very aggressive like much of the Visegrad group.

Not going out for a walk with my husband is going to suck so bad, even tho we live together.

Anyway there are presidential elections supposedly going ahead on May 10th which basically everyone thinks should be cancelled , but they won't do it.

1) it's good politically for them if they can pull it off
2) if they cancel May 10th elections they're basically saying lock down will continue until then, which would probably cause louts of unrest.

Enjoy the visual!


----------



## weltweit (Mar 31, 2020)

Bosch develops rapid Covid-19 test


> Engineers at Bosch Healthcare Solutions in Germany have developed a point of care Covid-19 test that is claimed to deliver a reliable result in under 2.5 hours.
> ..
> It is claimed that the test, which has been developed in collaboration with Northern Ireland medical technology firm Randox Laboratories, could prove a key tool in curbing the spread of the virus. “Bosch’s rapid COVID-19 test will help contain the spread of the pandemic and break the chain of transmission more quickly,” said Bosch CEO Dr Volkmar Denner.
> 
> Designed to be used at the point of care, the test potentially eliminates the need to transport samples and could enable infected individuals to be identified and isolated immediately. It is also able to simultaneously diagnose nine other respiratory diseases including influenza A and B, thereby saving doctors the additional time needed for further tests.


from Bosch develops rapid Covid-19 test | The Engineer


----------



## weltweit (Mar 31, 2020)

Spanish lockdown for all but limited essential workers.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 31, 2020)

Trump claims a million Americans have been tested.


----------



## teqniq (Mar 31, 2020)

INSTEX successfully concludes first transaction
					

The E3 confirm that INSTEX has successfully concluded its first transaction, facilitating the export of medical goods from Europe to Iran.




					www.gov.uk
				






> France, Germany and the United Kingdom (the E3) confirm that INSTEX has successfully concluded its first transaction, facilitating the export of medical goods from Europe to Iran. These goods are now in Iran.
> 
> INSTEX aims to provide a sustainable, long-term solution for legitimate trade between Europe and Iran as part of the continued efforts to preserve the JCPOA.
> 
> Now the first transaction is complete, INSTEX and its Iranian counterpart STFI will work on more transactions and enhancing the mechanism.



If it causes Trump and his ilk to blow a fuse, all the better. Caveat: I have absolutely no time whatsoever for the theocracy, but this is about people.


----------



## bimble (Mar 31, 2020)

Situation in India is just terrifying. Makes me feel despair more than the news from anywhere else. This short bbc vid gives an overview of the disastrous consequences of modi’s overnight lockdown attempt but doesn’t even go into the issue of wider poverty and food insecurity and police brutality that’s coming to poor people all over the country along with / before the virus itself.


----------



## teqniq (Mar 31, 2020)

Fuck. That's a potenial catastrophe right there.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 31, 2020)

It's going to be dreadful on the Indian subcontinent, as well as Africa, and much of South America.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 31, 2020)

bimble said:


> Situation in India is just terrifying. Makes me feel despair more than the news from anywhere else. This short bbc vid gives an overview of the disastrous consequences of modi’s overnight lockdown attempt but doesn’t even go into the issue of wider poverty and food insecurity and police brutality that’s coming to poor people all over the country along with / before the virus itself.


Liked for your posting it, not for the content.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 31, 2020)

Maltin said:


> I think one thing to bear in mind with all this talk of Germany is that they are further behind on the timeline. By my calculations, they are on about day 19 of deaths compared to the UK on about day 26.
> 
> Germany are currently on 5.4 deaths per million. At the same stage, the other major European countries had:
> 
> ...


Belgium and the Netherlands are also flying under the radar a little bit I think because the figures on the various counters are not adjusted for population size, so they don't stand out. The Benelux region is tracking with France more or less at the moment. Although there, as elsewhere, the curves do appear to be flattening. Time since lockdown does appear to be the biggest factor in that - and the better the state you were in as you entered lockdown, the better your subsequent outcomes. Spain was already in a terrible state, switching from complacency to panic almost overnight. Germany on the other hand was far more well prepared.


----------



## teqniq (Mar 31, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> It's going to be dreadful on the Indian subcontinent, as well as Africa, and much of South America.


Read this yesterday. not good.









						In Zimbabwe, 'you win coronavirus or you win starvation' | AP News
					

HARARE, Zimbabwe (AP) — “We are already ruined. What more harm can coronavirus do?" Irene Kampira asked as she sorted secondhand clothes at a bustling market in a poor suburb of Zimbabwe's capital, Harare...




					apnews.com


----------



## editor (Mar 31, 2020)

The FT seems to be providing good coverage of this crisis:



> Risk of death from other causes In the UK, about 150,000 people die every year between January and March. To date, the vast majority of those who have died from Covid-19 in Britain have been aged 70 or older or had serious pre-existing health conditions. What is not clear is how many of those deaths would have occurred anyway if the patients had not contracted Covid-19.
> 
> Speaking at a parliamentary hearing last week, Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London, said it was not yet clear how many “excess deaths” caused by coronavirus there would be in the UK. However, he said the proportion of Covid-19 victims who would have died anyway could be “as many as half or two-thirds”.







__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 31, 2020)

editor said:


> The FT seems to be providing good coverage of this crisis:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What does 'would have died anyway' mean in this instance, though? Would have died there and then anyway or a few months later anyway? Smacks of Cummingsesque thinking - they were on their last legs anyway.

Impossible thus far to draw any conclusions about excess deaths because the numbers are still too small compared to the expected daily death rate. Still within the boundaries of natural variation. Let's hope we never find out!

I'm calling bollocks on that _anyway_. We are seeing in Italy how a cluster of infection in a care home can run riot. It's taking out the most vulnerable, but that's not the same as 'would have died anyway' unless they would have died anyway there and then. We all die anyway. 

Anyway.


----------



## elbows (Mar 31, 2020)

As well as the question of what proportion would have died anyway, there is the question of when they would have died. This is important because in addition to those who fairly ask the question, there are the shits who wish to downplay the impact because they have an agenda. If they wish to remove those people from the total, the least they can do is estimate how much lost lifetime we are still talking about with these cases.

Plus there is the underreporting of deaths, I have no current way to know how many people in care homes etc have passed away without going to hospital or being tested. Some sense of that will be gained, after some additional delays, via ONS weekly reports.


----------



## editor (Mar 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> Plus there is the underreporting of deaths, I have no current way to know how many people in care homes etc have passed away without going to hospital or being tested. Some sense of that will be gained, after some additional delays, via ONS weekly reports.


I'm fearful of the full figure. I suspect it's going to a lot, lot higher.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> As well as the question of what proportion would have died anyway, there is the question of when they would have died. This is important because in addition to those who fairly ask the question, there are the shits who wish to downplay the impact because they have an agenda. If they wish to remove those people from the total, the least they can do is estimate how much lost lifetime we are still talking about with these cases.
> 
> Plus there is the underreporting of deaths, I have no current way to know how many people in care homes etc have passed away without going to hospital or being tested. Some sense of that will be gained, after some additional delays, via ONS weekly reports.


Unless they can say with confidence that the person would have died there and then (or at most within days) anyway, they should stay on the total because any estimate of likely death beyond that without the c19 aggravating factor is just that, an estimate, and something that can be wildly wrong.


----------



## editor (Mar 31, 2020)

All heart in Vegas















						Las Vegas parking lot turned into 'homeless shelter' with social distancing markers
					

City says parking lot marked to distance residents from each other was best option after virus forced another shelter to close




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## brogdale (Mar 31, 2020)

editor said:


> All heart in Vegas
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Whilst every single hotel room in Vegas lies empty.


----------



## teqniq (Mar 31, 2020)

Only in America.


----------



## elbows (Mar 31, 2020)

Worst-hit German district to become coronavirus ‘laboratory’
					

Study will follow 1,000 people in Heinsberg to create blueprint for how to deal with virus




					www.theguardian.com
				






> The scientists will go into 500 households, as well as kindergartens and hospitals, to study how the infection is spread. They will look at every aspect ofeveryday life, from the extent to which children pass it on to adults, how it is spread within families – from mobile phones to door handles, to cups and TV remote controls – to whether pets can spread it, and whether it is transferred via certain types of food. “If there are ways of preventing the illness from spreading in our environment, we want to know what they are, with the goal of finding out how we can freely move about in the environment together,” Streeck said.
> 
> “On the basis of our findings we’ll be able to make recommendations, which politicians can use to guide their decision-making,” Streeck said. “It could be that the measures currently in place are fine, and we say: ‘Don’t reduce them.’ But I don’t expect that, I expect the opposite, that we will be able to come up with a range of proposals as to how the curfews can be reduced.”





> By testing the immunity to Covid-19 of the study’s participants, the scientists will also be able to establish what the estimated number of undetected cases might be nationwide. The first results are expected to be made public next week, though the entire gathering of evidence will take several weeks and its analysis is likely to be carried out over months and years.


----------



## zahir (Mar 31, 2020)

First cases at the Ritsona refugee camp north of Athens. At least conditions there look far better, and less overcrowded, than the island camps.









						Refugee woman tested positive on COVID-19 after giving birth - Keep Talking Greece
					

A refugee woman living in an accommodation camp in Attica has been tested positive on COVID-19. The




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 31, 2020)

Potholer54 nails it as usual..
Fucking hell - Trump - gawd help us ...
The looks on the people behind him ...
Together they've condemned thousands of their own people to death - and the casual denial of science and the hard work of thousands of experts in an age when we have the technology to be on top of this sort of thing ...


----------



## HAL9000 (Mar 31, 2020)

Risks of covid 19



> Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, Chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, puts the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. He found that the proportion of people who get infected by coronavirus, who then go on to die increases with age, and the trend matches almost exactly how our background mortality risk also goes up. Catching the disease could be like packing a year’s worth of risk into a couple of weeks.











						BBC World Service - More or Less, Covid-19: The risks
					

Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter puts the risks of Covid-19 into perspective




					www.bbc.co.uk
				




(should be possible to download the program without needing a bbc account)


I think the summary of the program is that ...


If the virus was allowed to run riot, then the number of deaths would be similar to the number of deaths seen for the whole year.   The summary has this sentence 'Catching the disease could be like packing a year’s worth of risk into a couple of weeks', so the risk of death for most people would be low.
*BUT*. If it was allowed to run riot, hospitals would be overwhelmed, hence the need for lock down and social distancing .


----------



## extra dry (Mar 31, 2020)

blameless77 said:


> Their immune systems aren't as good at responding as women's....bad at listening?


Proberly but I won't listen anyway


----------



## HAL9000 (Mar 31, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Mar 31, 2020)

Chinese investigation into antibody response and ability of serological tests to be used for things such as finding some cases that were missed by RT-PCR tests, finding some asymptomatic cases etc. Including how long they may have to wait after symptom onset before these sorts of tests will be more certain to give positive results.



			https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.18.20038018v1.full.pdf


----------



## bimble (Mar 31, 2020)

The virus does not even exist in Turkeministan. 








						Coronavirus off limits in Turkmenistan | Reporters without borders
					

The Turkmen authorities are avoiding use of the word “coronavirus” as much as possible in order to deter the spread of information about the pandemic. By doing so, Turkmenistan’s government is putting its citizens in danger, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) says. It's as if it had never existed...




					rsf.org


----------



## elbows (Mar 31, 2020)

__





						AAAS
					






					science.sciencemag.org
				






> The newly emergent human virus SARS-CoV-2 is resulting in high fatality rates and incapacitated health systems. Preventing further transmission is a priority. We analyzed key parameters of epidemic spread to estimate the contribution of different transmission routes and determine requirements for case isolation and contact-tracing needed to stop the epidemic. We conclude that viral spread is too fast to be contained by manual contact tracing, but could be controlled if this process was faster, more efficient and happened at scale. A contact-tracing App which builds a memory of proximity contacts and immediately notifies contacts of positive cases can achieve epidemic control if used by enough people. By targeting recommendations to only those at risk, epidemics could be contained without need for mass quarantines (‘lock-downs’) that are harmful to society. We discuss the ethical requirements for an intervention of this kind.


----------



## teqniq (Mar 31, 2020)

Exclusive: Captain of aircraft carrier with growing coronavirus outbreak pleads for help from Navy
					

The captain of a nuclear aircraft carrier docked in Guam with more than 100...




					www.sfchronicle.com


----------



## zahir (Mar 31, 2020)

BBC report from the Moria camp on Lesvos.


----------



## elbows (Mar 31, 2020)

Sounds like China is going to start including the asymptomatic cases in their figures. 









						China to include symptom-free coronavirus carriers in national figures
					

The National Health Commission says it will start to include asymptomatic cases in its Covid-19 statistics in move to address public concern.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 31, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Apparently Singapore also does not have a lockdown.



Like with a number of other places that are touted as being models for how it might be possible to do things without the most restrictive measures, I continue to urge caution about whether their approaches are sustainable.

For example last week Singapore felt the need to do this:









						Coronavirus: All entertainment venues in Singapore to close, gatherings outside work and school limited to 10 people
					

Bars, cinemas and all other entertainment outlets will be closed from March 26, 11.59pm till April 30. . Read more at straitstimes.com.




					www.straitstimes.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 31, 2020)

BBC Live updates page is going on about how latest Trump press conference might reveal new details about the 2.2 million death worst case scenario that he mentioned the other day.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52101615 21:52 entry.



> President Donald Trump and his team are expected to offer details on the data that led to the extension of containment efforts until, at least, the end of April.
> 
> Yesterday, the president told reporters he had been informed that up to two million Americans could die in a worst-case scenario.
> 
> We'll soon get a closer look at those models.



Well, I dont need to wait for him to talk about it more, the numbers are clearly from the now famous Imperial college report of mid March (the same one that was credited with changing UK approach to suppress instead of mitigate).



			https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
		




> In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.



That quote is from page 7.


----------



## Azrael (Mar 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> Like with a number of other places that are touted as being models for how it might be possible to do things without the most restrictive measures, I continue to urge caution about whether their approaches are sustainable.
> 
> For example last week Singapore felt the need to do this:
> 
> ...


Mentioned Singapore varying her restrictions on an earlier thread. It's surely a good sign: shows her government's alert to the risk of complacency, and is adjusting measures as the need arises. Right now they're on high alert over the risk of an influx of imported cases triggering a local outbreak, so this precaution's sensible. The underlying rationale of maintaining the maximum level of freedom and normality compatible with public safety is one I like. If they're forced to implement a lockdown at some point, should maximize its brevity and effectiveness.


----------



## elbows (Mar 31, 2020)

The maximum level of freedom tolerated in Singapore under non-pandemic conditions is a fucking disgrace.


----------



## Azrael (Mar 31, 2020)

Meanwhile we're pursuing hikers with drones through empty fields while allowing rammed Tube trains to run, and the Scottish govt's come up with a terrifying plan to hold juryless Diplock trials that can convict on hearsay evidence. Panic's doing untold harm.


----------



## Azrael (Mar 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> The maximum level of freedom tolerated in Singapore under non-pandemic conditions is a fucking disgrace.


I'll not defend her political system for a second. The principle's transferrable without doing so, as testified by its application to Taiwan and South Korea, both undoubted democracies with the rule of law. So's Japan, although she appears a Covid outlier for all kinds of reasons.


----------



## elbows (Mar 31, 2020)

Undoubted democracies lol.



> But its political culture left much to be desired. I covered one general election in Singapore. At an opposition rally one leading candidate asked citizens to vote for his party because it would provide a responsible check on the ruling party’s power. Unsurprisingly, the ruling party — the only one Singapore has ever had — rolled to victory. “Vote for us; we’re good losers” does not exactly inspire people.











						Reporting in Singapore taught me to appreciate America’s messy democracy
					

Returning to American politics after three years in South-East Asia




					medium.economist.com


----------



## teqniq (Mar 31, 2020)

Total chaos, particularly wrt to Syria:









						Fears over hidden Covid-19 outbreak in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria
					

Number of cases may far exceed official figures amid claims of quarantining by non-state actors




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Azrael (Mar 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> Undoubted democracies lol.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


To clarify again: I said that South Korea and Taiwan were undoubted democracies (which doesn't mean I think they're anything close to perfect: I certainly don't agree with S. Korea's national security law); Singapore obviously isn't, and as I said, I'm not defending her political system.

I greatly respect your posts on this, and will chalk this up to a genuine misunderstanding.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 1, 2020)

As should we here.









						Portugal gives migrants full citizenship rights during coronavirus outbreak
					

Portugal has given all migrants and asylum seekers full citizenship rights, granting them full access to the country's healthcare as the outbreak of the novel coronavirus escalates in the country.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## elbows (Apr 1, 2020)

Azrael said:


> To clarify again: I said that South Korea and Taiwan were undoubted democracies (which doesn't mean I think they're anything close to perfect: I certainly don't agree with S. Korea's national security law); Singapore obviously isn't, and as I said, I'm not defending her political system.
> 
> I greatly respect your posts on this, and will chalk this up to a genuine misunderstanding.



Yes I misread your post, sorry.

Anyway I will wait and see how these countries turn out in the weeks ahead, you know I'm not sure whether their measures are sustainable or not. It would certainly give us more options if they are, so I'm not wishing for them to fail, but the timing just isnt quite right for me to assume yet.


----------



## elbows (Apr 1, 2020)

For those that are interested in their approach, I recommend reading both the daily documents they produce, as they give far more clues about some of the detail of managing things in that way.

South Korea official docs:









						KDCA
					

KDCA




					www.cdc.go.kr
				




For example, from March 31st update:



> ○ From Uijeongbu St. Mary’s Hospital in Gyeonggi Province, 7 cases (inpatients = 4; staff/workers = 3) have been confirmed since 29 March. One patient who was in inpatient care on the 8th floor during 16-25 March was confirmed on 29 March, which prompted investigation into the contacts in the 8th floor ward, which found 6 additional confirmed cases. The 8th floor ward has been temporarily shut down. Testing is underway for around 200 healthcare staff and patients.
> 
> ○ In Daegu, a total of 2,368 caregivers working in 61 hospital-grade healthcare institutions are under investigation. Approximately 97% of them have been tested as of today. All 2,118 test results returned so far have been negative.
> 
> ○ Also in Daegu, a total of 2,415 inpatients admitted to 16 mental health hospitals are undergoing investigation. Approximately 67% of them have been tested as of today. All 273 test results returned so far have been negative.





> Persons traveling in from overseas who fail to comply with self-quarantine regulations are subject to imprisonment up to 1 year or fine up to 10 million won (effective 5 April) for violation of Infectious Disease Control and Prevention Act (Paragraph 1 of Article 49 and Article 79-3). Persons of foreign nationality who fail to comply may be subject to measures including deportation and entry ban in accordance with Immigration Act (Articles 11 and 46).



And again, signs they felt the need to go further than the original approach that caught peoples attention:



> The Korean government is promoting the Enhanced Social Distancing campaign from 22 March to 5 April. The KCDC is advising high-risk facilities, businesses and sectors to limit operation, advise people to stay home and refrain from going outside, and minimize contact with coworkers at work. The KCDC again urged people to continue to refrain from attending religious gathering, going to indoor fitness or sports facilities, or otherwise engaging in activities that make it easy to come in close contact with other people in an enclosed space, and maintain good personal hygiene including washing hands and covering coughs/sneezes.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 1, 2020)

Looks like this is all part of the dance from the "hammer and the dance" article. (S. Korea of course never let things spiral to the point she was left with no choice but to hammer transmission down.) Temporary restrictions that can be imposed and loosened as needed, depending on what testing shows. The extent and diligence of testing and tracing in those reports is remarkable.


----------



## elbows (Apr 1, 2020)

Yes its the level of detail that made me suggest reading them.

Also a good idea to keep up on news from these countries, so we dont assume their approach is in any way easy for them.









						Major hospital in Seoul on alert after 9-year-old tests positive for coronavirus
					

A nine-year-old girl hospitalized at Asan Medical Center in Seoul tested positive for the coronavirus Tuesday, raising alert over possible transmissions at one of the biggest hospitals in South Korea.  The patient, who was being treated for non-respiratory symptoms in a single-bed room, was...



					www.koreaherald.com
				






> The children's emergency center and several other facilities, as well as 45 wards on the 13th floor of the hospital, have been shut down indefinitely.
> 
> Patients who had been in adjacent wards have also been moved to negative pressure rooms, the hospital said.












						Korea sticks to honor system in virus battle
					

South Korea’s virus fight plan will largely remain noncompulsory, Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip said Tuesday, with its surveillance system upheld by massive testing and contact tracing.  Korea on Tuesday added 125 to its virus tally with the total now reaching 9,786. Over half -- 5,408 --...



					www.koreaherald.com
				






> South Korea’s virus fight plan will largely remain noncompulsory, Vice Health Minister Kim Gang-lip said Tuesday, with its surveillance system upheld by massive testing and contact tracing.
> 
> Korea on Tuesday added 125 to its virus tally with the total now reaching 9,786. Over half -- 5,408 -- have recovered so far. Five more people died, bringing the death toll to 163.
> 
> ...





> Last week, the government said it would begin to draw up a timeline for a gradual return to normal in an eased-up social distancing strategy known as “everyday distancing.”
> 
> The concept is to enable a partial resumption of previrus routine to soften the blow on the economy while quelling the spread with practical safety regulations.
> 
> But this is only on the condition that the curve not only flattens, but declines substantially for an extended period of time.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 1, 2020)

"negative pressure rooms" sensible


----------



## elbows (Apr 1, 2020)

They keep having to push back plans to reopen schools too.









						Virus forces schools to go virtual, but many are still unprepared
					

South Korea said Tuesday it will begin a new semester for the country’s elementary, middle and high schools online starting April 9, as the government fights to stem the novel coronavirus spread.  　 Students could start going to schools as early as end-April, taking turns by their grades...



					www.koreaherald.com


----------



## Azrael (Apr 1, 2020)

Not surprised, with people returning home from countries with uncontrolled spread, now must be the highest risk time since the initial outbreak. When they're able to seal borders and, hopefully, see zero community transmission for a sustained period (not guaranteed, of course), may then reassess.


----------



## Anju (Apr 1, 2020)

Saw this posted earlier in the thread.
Pandemic simulation exercise spotlights massive preparedness gap

Followed a link to the rankings of 195 countries health security published after the simulation and US is top, Britain second. Just wondering where the wrongness is. The study and conclusions, the data, how our government has reacted, or a combination.
The Global Health Security Index


----------



## kabbes (Apr 1, 2020)

Persistently seeing countries anthropomorphised as  female is starting to really bother me.  It’s fucking weird.  A country is either “it” as a thing or “they” as a collective.  It’s like something from the nineteenth century to view it as some kind of mother figure.


----------



## Flavour (Apr 1, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Persistently seeing countries anthropomorphised as  female is starting to really bother me.  It’s fucking weird.  A country is either “it” as a thing or “they” as a collective.  It’s like something from the nineteenth century to view it as some kind of mother figure.



I agree. It's jarring. Understandable from native speakers of languages where countries are gendered as female, but don't think that's the case here.


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (Apr 1, 2020)

Flavour said:


> I agree. It's jarring. Understandable from native speakers of languages where countries are gendered as female, but don't think that's the case here.


Are you saying that countries are non-binary, or gender-fluid?


----------



## elbows (Apr 1, 2020)

elbows said:


> BBC Live updates page is going on about how latest Trump press conference might reveal new details about the 2.2 million death worst case scenario that he mentioned the other day.
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52101615 21:52 entry.
> 
> ...



Now I'm really sure that its that Imperial College report they have been trying to school Trump with, and thats why he decided to go on about how bad things would have been for the UK if it had stuck to plan a. Well that and his usual modus operandi of projecting his own failings onto someone else and then throwing them under the bus. In this case since its Johnson and the herd immunity shit, I wont complain too much.



> "If you remember, they were looking at that concept - I guess it's a concept if you don't mind death, a lot of death - but they were looking at that in the UK, remember," Trump told a White House press briefing on Tuesday.
> 
> "And all of a sudden they went hard the other way because they started seeing things that weren't good, so they put themselves in a little bit of a problem."
> 
> ...


----------



## The Pale King (Apr 1, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Persistently seeing countries anthropomorphised as  female is starting to really bother me.  It’s fucking weird.  A country is either “it” as a thing or “they” as a collective.  It’s like something from the nineteenth century to view it as some kind of mother figure.



Vive La France!


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 1, 2020)

elbows said:


> Now I'm really sure that its that Imperial College report they have been trying to school Trump with, and thats why he decided to go on about how bad things would have been for the UK if it had stuck to plan a. Well that and his usual modus operandi of projecting his own failings onto someone else and then throwing them under the bus. In this case since its Johnson and the herd immunity shit, I wont complain too much.


Fuck me. Johnson was at least two weeks behind where he should have been, and Trump is two weeks behind Johnson.


----------



## Chz (Apr 1, 2020)

The Pale King said:


> Vive La France!


Indeed, Marianne and Mother Russia beg to disagree.
Interesting that Germany was always the Fatherland, though. Most countries are feminine.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 1, 2020)

I've not been keeping updated. What's new?


----------



## agricola (Apr 1, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Fuck me. Johnson was at least two weeks behind where he should have been, and Trump is two weeks behind Johnson.



Not to agree with Trump but he was probably always on a different path to Johnson, one of complete incompetence rather than deliberately letting loads of people get sick and die.

With all the fibs around testing, ventilators, PPE etc and a big proportion of their mates in the media all saying "we"* are sacrificing too much economically I am not sure any more that they (edit: we) aren't still on that path either TBH.

* of course this means "you lot"


----------



## Mation (Apr 1, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Meanwhile we're pursuing hikers with drones through empty fields while allowing rammed Tube trains to run


What rammed tubes? Where?

I decided to get the bus to work today as, while two weeks ago the tube numbers were down, last week they were down so much that I started wondering about my safety. I avoided getting into a carriage that just had one man in it, and saw the only other person on the platform, a woman, do the same. (We looked at each other and knew.) 


Azrael said:


> So's Japan, although she appears a Covid outlier for all kinds of reasons.


Why are you referring to countries using female pronouns? It doesn't reflect well on you.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 1, 2020)

Mation said:


> What rammed tubes? Where?
> 
> I decided to get the bus to work today as, while two weeks ago the tube numbers were down, last week they were down so much that I started wondering about my safety. I avoided getting into a carriage that just had one man in it, and saw the only other person on the platform, a woman, do the same. (We looked at each other and knew.)
> Why are you referring to countries using female pronouns? It doesn't reflect well on you.


For the same reason we refer to ships with personal pronouns: to reflect the animacy of the thing referred to. As for why they're female, it's traditional, same as ships. National personifications have tended to be female (not invariably). If you think this "reflects badly", well OK. You presumably think the Royal Navy's Twitter feed likewise reflects badly on them. I disagree.

Regarding the far more pressing issue of the Tube, it'll vary by time, place and line. Some cars are empty. There's been footage of other trains rammed. Unless the definition of "essential" work is restricted, or more trains put on (or both), the risk remains.


----------



## Mation (Apr 1, 2020)

Azrael said:


> For the same reason we refer to ships with personal pronouns: to reflect the animacy of the thing referred to. As for why they're female, it's traditional, same as ships. National personifications have tended to be female (not invariably). If you think this "reflects badly", well OK. You presumably think the Royal Navy's Twitter feed likewise reflects badly on them. I disagree.


It really sounds ridiculous, whoever says it.



> Regarding the far more pressing issue of the Tube, it'll vary by time, place and line. Some cars are empty. There's been footage of other trains rammed. Unless the definition of "essential" work is restricted, or more trains put on (or both), the risk remains.


Have you actually been on the tube in the past week or so?


----------



## Azrael (Apr 1, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Meanwhile we're pursuing hikers with drones through empty fields while allowing rammed Tube trains to run, and the Scottish govt's come up with a terrifying plan to hold juryless Diplock trials that can convict on hearsay evidence. Panic's doing untold harm.


In one piece of positive news, Bute House have junked the jury plan after furious opposition from across the Scottish legal profession, opposition, and from within the SNP itself.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 1, 2020)

Mation said:


> It really sounds ridiculous, whoever says it.
> 
> 
> Have you actually been on the tube in the past week or so?


Nope, still under quarantine. Unless the footage has been faked, issue remains. One train running at that capacity ATM is one too many.


----------



## Mation (Apr 1, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Nope, still under quarantine. Unless the footage has been faked, issue remains. One train running at that capacity ATM is one too many.


Which train? How recently?


----------



## Azrael (Apr 1, 2020)

Mation said:


> Which train? How recently?


There's been multiple reports,  including from the BBC, today. Would you object to non-essential Tube travel being ended until the outbreak's under control? If not, we don't even disagree on this point.


----------



## Mation (Apr 1, 2020)

Azrael said:


> There's been multiple reports,  including from the BBC, today. Would you object to non-essential Tube travel being ended until the outbreak's under control? If not, we don't even disagree on this point.


That article is from today. The picture, though? I really doubt it. They'd have said so in the caption and/or the story if so, given that they're trying to make the point that numbers need to come down further.

Yes, we can agree on the argument we weren't having: for now, non-essential travel should be a no no!


----------



## Mation (Apr 1, 2020)

dp


----------



## weltweit (Apr 1, 2020)

A BBC America update 

Coronavirus: US 'considers cloth face masks for public'


> US health authorities are debating whether to recommend face coverings for everyone when they go out in public.
> 
> One internal memo for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says that even simple cloth masks could help reduce the risk of virus transmission, the Washington Post reports.
> 
> President Donald Trump has suggested that individuals could "use a scarf".


from US considers cloth face masks for public

Coronavirus: LA county gun shops to reopen as 'essential' business


> Los Angeles County is reopening gun shops to the public after a federal memo listed them as "essential" businesses.
> 
> Sheriff Alex Villanueva closed shops last week, but reversed course on Monday, following the guidance.
> 
> The LA county closures had prompted a lawsuit from gun rights groups.


from LA gun stores reopen, deemed 'essential' business

Trump changes tack on coronavirus crisis


> There was no sugar-coating it this time. No optimistic talk of miracle cures or Easter-time business re-openings.
> 
> There was just the cold, hard reality of the facts on the ground.
> 
> ...


from Trump changes tack as reality hits


----------



## teuchter (Apr 1, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Persistently seeing countries anthropomorphised as  female is starting to really bother me.  It’s fucking weird.  A country is either “it” as a thing or “they” as a collective.  It’s like something from the nineteenth century to view it as some kind of mother figure.


I was about to post the same. The habit drags on for things like boats, probably because of the kind of men you find in the navy and sailing clubs. But for countries? It's not the 1950s any more.


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (Apr 1, 2020)

teuchter said:


> It's not the 1950s any more.


It never was


----------



## xes (Apr 1, 2020)

It's looking pretty fucked up in Ecuador





__





						#guayaquil hashtag on Twitter
					

On May 21 @Ruptly tweeted: "Grieving families protested on Wednesday.." - read what others are saying and join the conversation.




					twitter.com


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 2, 2020)

about fricking time









						Florida governor issues stay-at-home order after weeks of resistance
					

Gov. Ron DeSantis said "it makes sense to do this now" after President Donald Trump announced that the administration is extending its social distancing guidelines by 30 days.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 2, 2020)

The government of Alberta, Canada, based their provincial budget on revenues for the oil sector.
A new mine changed it's mind, and decided not to open a new mine.  7000 potential jobs lost.

Now, there comes more news about mines shutting down.









						Massive New Mine Could Be Oil-Sands’ First Big Price War Victim
					

The last major oil-sands mine to start operating in northern Alberta could be Canada’s first big casualty of the Saudi-Russian price war and the Covid-19 pandemic.




					www.bloomberg.com
				




If you read the article, you will see how hard this is affecting the province.

When the conservative government came into power, they set up a "war room" to promote Alberta oil and dispense with "dirty oil" views.
Since the virus. the war rooms budget has been cut.









						Alberta’s ‘energy war room’ sees budget cut by 90% amid coronavirus  | Globalnews.ca
					

Oil prices have been steadily dropping since the coronavirus pandemic started, bringing with it a slew of cancellations, restrictions and shut downs of everything from pubs and bars to air travel.




					globalnews.ca


----------



## gosub (Apr 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> A BBC America update
> 
> Coronavirus: US 'considers cloth face masks for public'
> 
> ...



I'm really glad I don't live in a country where everybody has to walk around wearing masks and guns are considered essential.  The ex Gurka on the door at Sainsuburys today was muttering about face masks emboldening shoplifters


----------



## little_legs (Apr 2, 2020)




----------



## Mation (Apr 2, 2020)

Food baskets in Naples.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 2, 2020)

France now using Chloroquine to treat patients.



			https://www.thelocal.fr/20200324/france-allows-chloroquine-to-be-given-to-gravest-coronavirus-cases


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 2, 2020)

Family of dead British man appeal to Florida to let Zaandam dock
					

Fears of further passenger deaths on coronavirus-stricken Zaandam unless governor relents




					theguardian.com
				




Fuck. Not letting this ship land is war crime territory


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 2, 2020)

It Will Haunt History Jesus


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 2, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Family of dead British man appeal to Florida to let Zaandam dock
> 
> 
> Fears of further passenger deaths on coronavirus-stricken Zaandam unless governor relents
> ...



It is now going to be allowed to dock, for once it seems Trump has done the right thing.









						Trump says US 'has to help' coronavirus-stricken cruise liners heading to Florida
					

Four people have died on the Zaandam, stranded at sea for two weeks with passengers including Britons, Canadians and Australians onboard




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## LDC (Apr 2, 2020)

Starting to think that the USA might need it's own thread, things are deteriorating there very quickly, has the potential to be catastrophically bad, especially when considering the virus related impacts on the stability and structure of the country.


----------



## zahir (Apr 2, 2020)

Outbreak at the Ritsona refugee camp.









						Ritsona refugee camp quarantined after 20 test positive for Covid-19 | eKathimerini.com
					

Greek health officials have placed a refugee and migrant camp northeast of the capital in quarantine after 20 of its residents tested positive for Covid-19.




					www.ekathimerini.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 2, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Starting to think that the USA might need it's own thread, ..


I have been posting US news to this thread for a while now, I don't see such a great interest in the posts though. 
Personally I prefer posting "worldwide" news to this "worldwide" thread.


----------



## elbows (Apr 2, 2020)

little_legs said:


>






> Daily death tolls flattening in Italy & Spain: each new day brings fewer deaths



I dislike premature claims like that one.


From 11:05 entry on BBC ive updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52130552


----------



## weltweit (Apr 2, 2020)

Interesting debate atm on BBC News between a German and Swedish Scientists, different approaches visible here, Germany testing a lot and now testing 1,000 in a small town to try to find out how the virus travels through a population and the Swedish scientist arguing against lockdown.


----------



## elbows (Apr 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Interesting debate atm on BBC News between a German and Swedish Scientists, different approaches visible here, Germany testing a lot and now testing 1,000 in a small town to try to find out how the virus travels through a population and the Swedish scientist arguing against lockdown.



Here is an article from a couple of days ago about the 1000. I already linked to it before but since you mention that, I thought it worth posting again.









						Worst-hit German district to become coronavirus ‘laboratory’
					

Study will follow 1,000 people in Heinsberg to create blueprint for how to deal with virus




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## elbows (Apr 2, 2020)

Putin has extended the 'dont go to work' measures till the end of the month. Other measures to be taken on a regional basis.


----------



## treelover (Apr 2, 2020)

> *6.7m Americans apply for jobless benefits in a week*
> 
> 
> 
> ...


very very alarming, back to the 1930's?


----------



## mauvais (Apr 2, 2020)

Not necessarily. It's not clear that the majority won't be rapidly back into work once restrictions are lifted, unlike the 30s.


----------



## zahir (Apr 2, 2020)

Outbreak on a Greek ferry that had been chartered to take seamen of various nationalities to Spain. I wonder if there are implications here for commercial shipping and it’s not just cruise ships that are the problem.









						Ferry with 120 passengers tested “positive” to dock at Piraeus port (UPD) - Keep Talking Greece
					

120 seamen, passengers on ferry




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## zahir (Apr 2, 2020)

Yes, it looks like it’s a problem.





__





						Industry News: Coronavirus Outbreak – Impact on Shipping
					

In response to the 2019-nCoV novel Coronavirus outbreak, a number of countries, ports and organisations are publishing details of the measures being put in place.




					www.nepia.com


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 2, 2020)

Hmmm.  Now this is something that could seriously impact on food supplies.


----------



## little_legs (Apr 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> Putin has extended the 'dont go to work' measures till the end of the month. Other measures to be taken on a regional basis.


A friend in Moscow says that two weeks ago, to prevent people from traveling, the city officials have blocked all smart travel cards (Oyster equivalent) and unified travel passes. This has pissed off a lot of people. The pensioners are being told not to go further than 100 meters from the houses they live in. 
Essential workers are being issued with special travel passes.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 2, 2020)

Laredo, Texas certainly thinks masks are important.









						$1,000 fine to residents caught without a mask in Laredo, Texas
					

Residents older than 5 years old are required to wear a mask in public to help stop the spread of COVID-19.




					abc13.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 2, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Laredo, Texas certainly thinks masks are important.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So far I haven't seen any masks on sale, that'll be me excluded from the shops then :-/ 
Although from the wording it seems a bandana will suffice.


----------



## DaveCinzano (Apr 2, 2020)

Just hit the million mark


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> So far I haven't seen any masks on sale, that'll be me excluded from the shops then :-/
> Although from the wording it seems a bandana will suffice.



Yeah, masks seem very hard to come by, I’ve ordered a pack of 2 with charcoal filters (n95?) but they don’t arrive for I think another month.

My dad gave me a pack of painters masks, very cheap with straps stapled on, one side pinged off straight away and wearing it is very hot with muffled breathing 😐


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 2, 2020)

DaveCinzano said:


> Just hit the million mark
> 
> View attachment 204554



I like the figure in green tho.


----------



## DaveCinzano (Apr 2, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> I like the figure in green tho.


But the recovered/died split has now seesawed to the worst yet - 20% mortality in closed cases


----------



## weltweit (Apr 2, 2020)

Sounds like the USA is considering mandating mask wearing in public at a federal level. UK might well follow suit, especially if the WHO changes its advice, but how are we supposed to get masks? when even the NHS was having trouble getting enough.


----------



## LDC (Apr 2, 2020)

Bit of emotional writing from a New York City EMT here...









						I’m a New York City EMT. This Is War.
					

Everything has turned quiet and grave. “I don’t want to die,” a cop friend texted me the other night.



					www.thedailybeast.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 2, 2020)

DaveCinzano said:


> But the recovered/died split has now seesawed to the worst yet - 20% mortality in closed cases


Does that not reflect more that testing has been very limited in many or most even countries?


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Sounds like the USA is considering mandating mask wearing in public at a federal level. UK might well follow suit, especially if the WHO changes its advice, but how are we supposed to get masks? when even the NHS was having trouble getting enough.



Altern-8 need to set up a factory


----------



## DaveCinzano (Apr 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Does that not reflect more that testing has been very limited in many or most even countries?


I'm not sure you could extrapolate that without more information. 

Over the past three or four weeks it has risen from around 5% to 20%. Earlier than that it held steady for some time in the 10-15% range. The mild/serious active split went from around 85/15% to 95/5% and has held there for some weeks.


----------



## elbows (Apr 2, 2020)

Following up on a few posts from Sunday. These were originally in the UK thread but since the theme was Germany I thought it was more appropriate to follow up in this thread instead:



littlebabyjesus said:


> TIme will tell on that. There are two crucial factors, aren't there. First the capacity of the health services and ability not to be overwhelmed, which we have seen in Italy causes deaths, and second when the exponential growth is arrested.
> 
> We have the example of S Korea where that growth was nipped in the bud right at the start. Germany hasn't done that, but they have been aggressively testing and tracing, and they've been in lockdown for more than a week now. So Germany's figures are much more encouraging than the UK's _if_ lockdown is an effective measure, because they've been in lockdown longer than us and their death rate is still much lower.
> 
> ...





elbows said:


> Infection control in hospitals and elsewhere is a third crucial factor.
> 
> I am not encouraged by Germanys figures at all. If, in 5 days time, they have way lower than 1000 deaths in total, then maybe I can start to be more optimistic about the way it will go there.



Germanys death figures failed to stay below 1000 within the timeframe I mentioned, so I cannot change my levels of optimism about Germany. How are you feeling about the more recent data from Germany littlebabyjesus ?

I should say that we are well past the stae where I would talk as though every country in europe would be identical, we might still see quite a lot of variation in terms of total deaths over time, but I am not ready to predict any specifics on that front other than the very obvious in regards Spain and Italy.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 2, 2020)

elbows said:


> Germanys death figures failed to stay below 1000 within the timeframe I mentioned, so I cannot change my levels of optimism about Germany. How are you feeling about the more recent data from Germany littlebabyjesus ?


Optimistic. They were expecting this rise as more old people get it. They had planned for it. It's still a very modest rise.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 2, 2020)

Germany is still on the exponential line according to this, from : Covid Trends dropping down just slightly compared to USA.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Germany is still on the exponential line according to this, from : Covid Trends dropping down just slightly compared to USA.
> 
> View attachment 204561


That's confirmed cases, though. It's actually flattening out - a curve means not exponential - but it's such an artefact of the testing regime that it's very flawed as a measure, or at least, it needs caveats to be added. Germany is now conducting more than 50,000 tests per day. So only around 10 per cent of tests are coming back positive. It's conducting more tests than ever but its daily totals have plateaued over the last few days. 

Its current death rates vs new cases rate suggest very strongly that places like the UK, about half of whose tests are coming back positive, are more infected than Germany. We just haven't discovered it yet. And hence cannot more effectively target resources.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 2, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> ..
> Its current death rates vs new cases rate suggest very strongly that places like the UK, about half of whose tests are coming back positive, are more infected than Germany. We just haven't discovered it yet. And hence cannot more effectively target resources.


1,066 deaths, up 168, and 6,655 new cases in the last 24 hours. 
I hope you are right in your optimism for Germany.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> 1,066 deaths, up 168, and 6,655 new cases in the last 24 hours.
> I hope you are right in your optimism for Germany.


The optimism is tempered by the pessimism that I am sure the UK is going to come out of this much, much more badly than Germany.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 2, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> The optimism is tempered by the pessimism that I am sure the UK is going to come out of this much, much more badly than Germany.


Seems likely. Hope our social distancing and lockdown may have an effect on UK numbers though.
I suppose it is still a few weeks before we could see any change to our figures.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Seems likely. Hope our social distancing and lockdown may have an effect on UK numbers though.
> I suppose it is still a few weeks before we could see any change to our figures.


Oh they will. Lockdown works. It just works excruciatingly slowly. But it's working even in Italy and Spain, although I'm sure it doesn't much feel like it yet.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 2, 2020)

US daily numbers are looking pretty bad.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 2, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> The optimism is tempered by the pessimism that I am sure the UK is going to come out of this much, much more badly than Germany.


I continue to hope for a rapid rollout of drug treatments, and am keeping a constant watch on the various trials, which are proceeding at a remarkable pace. No guarantees of course, but at this stage, can't see anything else.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 2, 2020)

Azrael said:


> I continue to hope for a rapid rollout of drug treatments, and am keeping a constant watch on the various trials, which are proceeding at a remarkable pace. No guarantees of course, but at this stage, can't see anything else.


I'm just fucking angry at the moment because things are so much worse than they should be here. There are no excuses.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 2, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Oh they will. Lockdown works. It just works excruciatingly slowly. But it's working even in Italy and Spain, although I'm sure it doesn't much feel like it yet.


Seems to be having an effect in Italy at least.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 2, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Seems to be having an effect in Italy at least.


Spain is a little way behind Italy. Also, it is crucial how bad you were as you entered lockdown (a reason I'm optimistic for Germany and 'who the fuck knows' for us). Spain was in a state when it entered lockdown. Complacency to panic overnight. (Not too dissimilar to here.) Plus Spain's health service has been experiencing savage cuts for years, and wasn't great even before the cuts.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 2, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I'm just fucking angry at the moment because things are so much worse than they should be here. There are no excuses.


None, we all agree that prevention's better than cure, but with a faction of the medical establishment having run up the white flag on suppressing the outbreak, possibility of a treatment's all we've got.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 2, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I'm just fucking angry at the moment because things are so much worse than they should be here. There are no excuses.


I think the only regions that were properly prepared were places in Asia like Singapore Hong Kong South Korea, and perhaps even China itself, while China misfired with it at first, when it got going it threw massive resource at the issue.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I think the only regions that were properly prepared were places in Asia like Singapore Hong Kong South Korea, and perhaps even China itself, while China misfired with it at first, when it got going it threw massive resource at the issue.


There is properly prepared, then partially prepared, then not fucking prepared in any way, shape or form. 

And then there is reacting quickly and in an organised way, reacting quickly but in a disorganised way, and reacting really rather slowly and in a chaotic way. 

Which of these describes the UK today?


----------



## elbows (Apr 2, 2020)

> Top European teaching hospitals from Sweden to Italy have said they will run out of vital drugs for Covid-19 intensive care patients within two weeks, as Spain passed 10,000 deaths from the pandemic and the US reported record jobless numbers.
> 
> As confirmed cases neared a million around the world and deaths passed 50,000 despite almost half of humanity living in some form of lockdown, the hospitals said that unless countries cooperated to ensure a steady supply, the critically ill would soon be deprived of essential medicines.
> 
> Hospitals needed protective gear and ventilators but also drugs to treat intensive care patients, the European University Hospital Alliance said in a letter to governments. Stocks of muscle relaxants, sedatives and painkillers were likely to run out in two days at the hardest-hit hospitals and in two weeks at others, they said.











						More than a million confirmed cases of Covid-19 globally
					

According to Johns Hopkins University at least 1,000,036 infections have been recorded




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Azrael (Apr 2, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I think the only regions that were properly prepared were places in Asia like Singapore Hong Kong South Korea, and perhaps even China itself, while China misfired with it at first, when it got going it threw massive resource at the issue.


Yes, those countries with a folk memory of SARS and the even more terrifying MERS were the fastest to respond. As you say, after their initial denial, Beijing clamped down hard on the coronavirus.

All the West's been caught flat-footed (except possibly Iceland, who has due warning, the advantage of a small population and being an island in the North Atlantic, and rushed to implement mass testing and tracing). The British response has, however, been particularly awful, with a decade of austerity mixing with godawful advice to bite hard.


----------



## elbows (Apr 2, 2020)

From the 'whats the actual number of deaths/what sort of underreporting have countries done so far' department comes France now counting people who died in care homes:



> The coronavirus death count in France surged to nearly 5,400 people on Thursday after the health ministry began including nursing home fatalities in its data.
> 
> Jerome Salomon, head of the health authority, said the pandemic had by Thursday claimed the lives of 4,503 patients in hospitals, up 12% on the previous day’s 4,032. A provisional tally showed the coronavirus had killed a further 884 people in nursing homes and other care facilities, he added.
> 
> This makes for a total of 5,387 lives lost to coronavirus in France - an increase of 1,355 over Wednesday’s cumulative total - although data has not yet been collected from all of the country’s 7,400 nursing homes.





> More than two thirds of all the known nursing home deaths have been registered in the Grand Est region, which abuts the border with Germany.
> 
> It was the first region in France to be overwhelmed by a wave of infections that has rapidly moved west to engulf greater Paris, where hospitals are desperately trying to add intensive care beds to cope with the influx of critically ill patients.











						France's coronavirus death toll jumps as nursing homes included
					

The coronavirus death count in France surged to nearly 5,400 people on Thursday after the health ministry began including nursing home fatalities in its data.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 2, 2020)

BTW I like posts to say something like, that is interesting thank you for posting it.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 2, 2020)

Apologies if it's already been posted, interesting:









						Treatment of Critically Ill Patients With COVID-19 With Convalescent Plasma
					

This case series describes clinical outcomes in 5 Chinese patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, ARDS, and high viral loads despite antiviral treatment who were given human plasma with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies obtained from previously infected and recovered patients.




					jamanetwork.com
				




The piece is careful to point out pretty much at the beginning that:



> ...These preliminary findings raise the possibility that convalescent plasma transfusion may be helpful in the treatment of critically ill patients with COVID-19 and ARDS, but this approach requires evaluation in randomized clinical trials....



From.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 2, 2020)

Reported that the NHS was planning to do similar a few days ago, and blood and transplant appear to be contacting people. Antiserums have been used for well over a century, so surely worth a try (hell, with informed patient consent, let doctors try whatever they think may work and is clinically justifiable).


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 2, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Yes, those countries with a folk memory of SARS and the even more terrifying MERS were the fastest to respond. As you say, after their initial denial, Beijing clamped down hard on the coronavirus.
> 
> All the West's been caught flat-footed (except possibly Iceland, who has due warning, the advantage of a small population and being an island in the North Atlantic, and rushed to implement mass testing and tracing). The British response has, however, been particularly awful, with a decade of austerity mixing with godawful advice to bite hard.


Yeah. Iceland has the massive advantage of size. It's only about the size of Cardiff, or the London Borough of Lambeth. There's a reason they don't really do surnames - everyone knows a fair chunk of the population, or at least knows someone who knows them. Test and trace not quite the daunting task. 

However, that possibly also points to one of the secrets of success. Local organisation, local democracy and local authorities. All things that have been undermined here for the last 40 years.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 2, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Exclusive: Captain of aircraft carrier with growing coronavirus outbreak pleads for help from Navy
> 
> 
> The captain of a nuclear aircraft carrier docked in Guam with more than 100...
> ...


Unsurpisingly:









						Navy relieves captain who raised alarm about COVID-19 on ship
					

The Navy relieved the captain who sounded the alarm about an outbreak of COVID-19 aboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## ice-is-forming (Apr 2, 2020)

Australia has about 5000 confirmed cases and 25 deaths. They have also tested more per capita than anywhere else ( sorry don't have a link atm) 

The government have found the magic money forrest! Absolute massive hand outs and waivers for everyone/thing.

Tonight we start a hard border between NSW and Qld, and WA have isolated entirely.

I'm highly suspicious at our governments handling of it tbh .. it's very unusual for them to get it right


----------



## Azrael (Apr 2, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yeah. Iceland has the massive advantage of size. It's only about the size of Cardiff, or the London Borough of Lambeth. There's a reason they don't really do surnames - everyone knows a fair chunk of the population, or at least knows someone who knows them. Test and trace not quite the daunting task.
> 
> However, that possibly also points to one of the secrets of success. Local organisation, local democracy and local authorities. All things that have been undermined here for the last 40 years.


Exactly why I continue to lament our destruction of local government and autonomy in the '70s. Germany too has benefitted greatly from the _Länder _having independence from Berlin, and both the freedom and resources to pursue testing. England's become absurdly centralised, but it's a relatively recent development, and it can be reversed.


----------



## elbows (Apr 2, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> I'm highly suspicious at our governments handling of it tbh .. it's very unusual for them to get it right



if they turn out to have got it right then its partly down to the fortunes of timing - assuming the seeds of their epidemic are well behind those of many countries in Europe, they could learn lessons from and copy from countries measures and apply them to an earlier stage of their epidemic, without having to go out on a political limb. Although that timing is not just down to fortune, it does imply they did certain things right in terms of reducing the spread from imported cases earlier on. I havent been following their measures properly though, I dont know if they can sustain their early gains in this battle, that will come down to various measures, how well people stick to them, and things like their approach to infection control and testing in hospitals and care homes. And timing may turn against them in terms of the seasons, with winter looming in the distance.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 2, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Exactly why I continue to lament our destruction of local government and autonomy in the '70s. Germany too has benefitted greatly from the _Länder _having independence from Berlin, and both the freedom and resources to pursue testing. England's become absurdly centralised, but it's a relatively recent development, and it can be reversed.


Can it? You say relatively recently, but Thatcher started it. It's only us old fuckers who were alive before then. That's a long time. 

 I didn't want to mention Germany yet again, but yes, responsibility to coordinate responses to this crisis lies largely with the states, with overall federal coordinating support. The key to any robust system is that it doesn't rely on just a few people at its centre. The UK system really does (the English bit at least) and what a bunch of fucking twats those few people are.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 2, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Can it? You say relatively recently, but Thatcher started it. It's only us old fuckers who were alive before then. That's a long time.
> 
> I didn't want to mention Germany yet again, but yes, responsibility to coordinate responses to this crisis lies largely with the states, with overall federal coordinating support. The key to any robust system is that it doesn't rely on just a few people at its centre. The UK system really does (the English bit at least) and what a bunch of fucking twats those few people are.


Will have to be mostly ground up, but university labs being enlisted is a positive sign. As the government drifts rudderless, local groups are of necessity being forced to take matters into their own hands.


----------



## BlanketAddict (Apr 2, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yeah. Iceland has the massive advantage of size. It's only about the size of Cardiff, or the London Borough of Lambeth. There's a reason they don't really do surnames - everyone knows a fair chunk of the population, or at least knows someone who knows them. Test and trace not quite the daunting task.
> 
> However, that possibly also points to one of the secrets of success. Local organisation, local democracy and local authorities. All things that have been undermined here for the last 40 years.



I went to Iceland last year. 
It's way bigger than Cardiff etc.  I drove a fair bit over there, amazing landscape.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Apr 2, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Australia has about 5000 confirmed cases and 25 deaths. They have also tested more per capita than anywhere else ( sorry don't have a link atm)
> 
> The government have found the magic money forrest! Absolute massive hand outs and waivers for everyone/thing.
> 
> ...




given the _economic_ environment issues that have been pedddled of late in Aus to justify everything, it is pretty astounding


----------



## bendeus (Apr 3, 2020)

BlanketAddict said:


> I went to Iceland last year.
> It's way bigger than Cardiff etc.  I drove a fair bit over there, amazing landscape.


At around 330,000 the populations of Cardiff and Iceland are the same. Cardiff has fewer volcanoes, though, and tends to use fewer syllables.


----------



## little_legs (Apr 3, 2020)




----------



## tim (Apr 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I have just seen video from India with thousands of people milling around outside trying to leave New Delhi - it seems they are directly flaunting the country's stay at home instruction.



The poor flaunting the government's stay at home and die of starvation if not the virus ruling.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

BBC USA Update

The commander of the USS Theodore Roosevelt has been removed after saying the US Navy was not doing enough to halt a coronavirus outbreak on board the aircraft carrier.


> In a letter, Capt Brett Crozier had urged his superiors to act to prevent US troops dying outside of wartime.
> 
> But acting US Navy Secretary Thomas Modly said the commander "exercised extremely poor judgement".
> 
> At least 100 people aboard the vessel have been infected, reports say.


It seems whistle blowers the world over are not welcome!
from US Navy removes captain who raised virus alarm

US jobless claims hit 6.6 million as virus spreads


> The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits has hit a record high for the second week in a row as the economic toll tied to the coronavirus intensifies.
> 
> More than 6.6 million people filed jobless claims in the week ended 28 March, the Department of Labor said.
> 
> ...


from US jobless claims hit new record as virus spreads

Things the US has got wrong - and got right


> The US is now the global epicentre of the pandemic, surpassing the number of reported cases in China, where the virus began, and Italy, the hardest-hit European nation.
> 
> Although public health officials report that the peak of the outbreak in the US is still weeks, perhaps months, away, shortcomings in the US response - as well as some strengths - have already become apparent.





> Masks, gloves, gowns and ventilators. Doctors and hospitals across the country, but particularly in areas hardest hit by the pandemic, are scrambling for items essential to help those stricken by the virus and protect medical professionals.
> 
> The lack of adequate supplies has forced healthcare workers to reuse existing sanitary garb or create their own makeshift gear. A shortage of ventilators has state officials worried they will soon be forced into performing medical triage, deciding on the fly who receives the life-sustaining support - and who doesn't.





> According to Professor Levi, ramping up testing at an early date - as done in nations like South Korea and Singapore - is the key to controlling a viral outbreak like Covid-19. The inability of the US government to do so was the critical failure from which subsequent complications have cascaded.
> 
> "All of pandemic response is dependent on situational awareness - knowing what is going on and where it is happening," he says.
> 
> Without this information, public health officials are essentially flying blind, not knowing where the next viral hotspot will flare up.


from Things the US has got wrong - and got right
Lots more on that page


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> That's confirmed cases, though. It's actually flattening out - a curve means not exponential - but it's such an artefact of the testing regime that it's very flawed as a measure, or at least, it needs caveats to be added. Germany is now conducting more than 50,000 tests per day. So only around 10 per cent of tests are coming back positive. It's conducting more tests than ever but its daily totals have plateaued over the last few days.



As someone, I think it may even have been you lbj said recently to me, it is about the trends though  When China and South Korea start dropping down this chart it is because their cases discovered in the last few weeks is reducing while their total cases remain the same. That is the clever aspect of this chart compared to others, that it shows trends. 

Don't get me wrong, Germany may yet drop down, but it hasn't more than a little so far.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Australia has about 5000 confirmed cases and 25 deaths. They have also tested more per capita than anywhere else ( sorry don't have a link atm)
> 
> The government have found the magic money forrest! Absolute massive hand outs and waivers for everyone/thing.
> 
> ...


Are there hot spots in Oz ice-is-forming?


----------



## kabbes (Apr 3, 2020)

Studies finding  that 330 million people just in the world’s 9 largest economic have the “underlying health conditions” that mean danger









						Hundreds of millions face severe coronavirus risk in developed world
					

There are approximately 330 million people at risk of contracting a severe coronavirus infection due to underlying health conditions in nine of the world's largest economies.




					www.theactuary.com
				




It’s about 25% of the UK population that are in the “at risk” category.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 3, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Studies finding  that 330 million people just in the world’s 9 largest economic have the “underlying health conditions” that mean danger
> 
> 
> 
> ...




So the low numbers in China may be due in part to lower levels of underlying serious illness in the population, while the higher numbers in America may partly be due to higher levels of underlying serious illness.

But _in addition_ to having less underlying illness, China _also_ put in place better measures, while _in addition_ to higher levels of underlying illness, America is just failing at any kind of management.

So with the double whammy of poor management and poor underlying health, things in America are going to come out really really really badly.


----------



## kabbes (Apr 3, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> So the low numbers in China may be due in part to lower levels of underlying serious illness in the population, while the higher numbers in America may partly be due to higher levels of underlying serious illness.
> 
> But _in addition_ to having less underlying illness, China _also_ put in place better measures, while _in addition_ to higher levels of underlying illness, America is just failing at any kind of management.
> 
> So with the double whammy of poor management and poor underlying health, things in America are going to come out really really really badly.


Yeah, it doesn’t look at all good for the US, does it?


----------



## MrCurry (Apr 3, 2020)

At the risk of making a pearoast, has anyone linked to the google mobility reports yet?









						COVID-19 Community Mobility Report
					

See how your community is moving around differently due to COVID-19



					www.google.com
				




Search any country and region and download a PDF showing how the about of movement has changed due to covid 19 in different categories of places, such as residential, retail, parks, etc... no doubt some interesting comparisons between countries will emerge from this data.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 3, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Yeah, it doesn’t look at all good for the US, does it?



I’ve been saying since the very start that it’s going to be a complete shit show over there. Not only because of Trump and his hubris but because of the nature of American society.

Another major issue is that as/if/when the pandemic starts to flatten out and settle elsewhere on the planet, and America remains a hotspot, it will inevitably become a hot little ember that will spark up flare ups and returning waves in the future.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I’ve been saying since the very start that it’s going to be a complete shit show over there. Not only because of Trump and his hubris but because of the nature of American society.
> ..


How do you mean SheilaNaGig, about the nature of their society?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

In looking for US stories online I have found some websites (CNN for example) almost unusable because of ads, is anyone else finding this? and are there any good sources of US news which don't have so many ads?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

Why Jeff Bezos’s $100 million donation to food banks won’t satisfy his critics 


> Jeff Bezos is giving $100 million to help America’s hungry during the coronavirus crisis, a gift that is one of the largest by a tech leader in response to the pandemic. But it also comes amid mounting concerns about how Bezos is treating his employees in his day job as CEO of Amazon.
> 
> Bezos announced on Thursday that he would be making the donation to Feeding America, a nonprofit that is serving as a clearinghouse to distribute money to food banks around the country.


from Why Jeff Bezos’s $100 million donation to food banks won’t satisfy his critics


----------



## Indeliblelink (Apr 3, 2020)

Delayed stats this week for all cause death across some European countries. A rise starting to show up in quite a few countries now.


----------



## little_legs (Apr 3, 2020)




----------



## The39thStep (Apr 3, 2020)

Additional measures in Portugal over Easter under The State of Emergency



> *Limitation on movement during the Easter period*
> 
> 
> Citizens cannot travel outside the municipality of usual residence between 00:00 on April 9th and 12:00 on April 13th, “except for health reasons or other reasons of imperative urgency”.
> ...


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Apr 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Sounds like the USA is considering mandating mask wearing in public at a federal level. UK might well follow suit, especially if the WHO changes its advice, but how are we supposed to get masks? when even the NHS was having trouble getting enough.



I haven't seen any sources suggesting that it be mandatory.  Previously, they've said, as part of the general guidelines, that there's no need for a mask.  The reports I've heard are suggesting that adding "wear a mask" to the guidelines.  I wish they would.  Around here, they look at you like you're being insulting by wearing a mask.  At least if the guidelines suggested it, it probably wouldn't be considered rude any more.


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 3, 2020)

Yuwipi Woman said:


> I haven't seen any sources suggesting that it be mandatory.  Previously, they've said, as part of the general guidelines, that there's no need for a mask.  The reports I've heard are suggesting that adding "wear a mask" to the guidelines.  I wish they would.  Around here, they look at you like you're being insulting by wearing a mask.  At least if the guidelines suggested it, it probably wouldn't be considered rude any more.



Yep - I think one of the reasons some East Asian countries have managed to control their outbreaks is because there is peer pressure on everybody to wear masks, including infected people who might not have done otherwise. It seems to be the total opposite in the West, where people who really should be wearing masks may not do so for fear of being shunned or targeted.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Apr 3, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Yep - I think one of the reasons some East Asian countries have managed to control their outbreaks is because there is peer pressure on everybody to wear masks, including infected people who might not have done otherwise. It seems to be the total opposite in the West, where people who really should be wearing masks may not do so for fear of being shunned or targeted.



I live in an immigrant transition neighborhood.  I've been shopping at the Asian grocery stores near me because everyone there wears a mask and its socially appropriate to do so.   (The food is better, anyway.)  You can even find masks and gloves still on the shelves.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> How do you mean SheilaNaGig, about the nature of their society?



I outlined some of my thoughts about this earlier on this thread.

Hang on...


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> How do you mean SheilaNaGig, about the nature of their society?



Here you go:



SheilaNaGig said:


> It’s possible but unlikely. Trump will be given a pass by his fans at the election because he’s working so hard to preserve the economy/their personal wealth and the pandemic is foreign/not his fault/couldn’t be predicted. Added to this the bonkers end-times hard core Xians who see him as an agent of their god: this “plague” will confirm their belief that it’s all panning out as they predict, so strengthen their support of Trump.
> 
> But also, it’s hard for anyone who’s not witnessed it first hand to understand how thoroughly and intractably the right hate the disenfranchised. I don’t just mean they’re politically averse, I mean they have a deeply emotional sense of fear and disgust for anyone who hasn’t successfully climbed aboard the American Dream bandwagon. Even those who are themselves poor and disenfranchised are utterly opposed to anyone who doesn’t demonstrate their adherence to the story. These adherants are going to become very much more entrenched and defensive of their myth in the coming months. They will defend their own creation story identify (pioneering, independent, self-sufficient, loyal to family and nationhood (define “nation” as applicable) ) ahead of any other factor.
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Apr 3, 2020)

The USA seems to have more severe estimates for number of hospitalisations etc. I suspect they have factored their own obesity & other underlying conditions data into things, and came out with numbers that are especially scary as a result.


----------



## little_legs (Apr 3, 2020)




----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I outlined some of my thoughts about this earlier on this thread.
> 
> Hang on...


I see I read it and liked it  an interesting view, and I see some in my own limited experiences. 

If one suggests to a Yank that the NHS is a good thing you are met with why should I pay for other people? seems the response I often hear.  Or we don't want no socialism as if it is communism.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

But I haven't seen the hate from the haves for the have nots, well a little, but I have also seen that in Britain, I can recall a retired Ferrari owner describing another man as a failure because they didn't have such toys. 

Which makes me wonder, because really our NHS is a massive government organised and financed health insurance scheme without the profit motive encompassing everyone and paid for by direct taxation. And it makes me wonder what UK attitudes were like towards healthcare before the NHS was established. I think I do recall that quite a lot of doctors were against it - I wonder what the population thought of it?


----------



## ice-is-forming (Apr 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Are there hot spots in Oz ice-is-forming?



Yes, Sydney and Melbourne. If they hadn't of let passengers off an infectious cruise ship a few weeks ago with out quarantining them the numbers would be much lower. I think maybe a third of the deaths are passengers from that ship









						Coronavirus (COVID-19) case numbers and statistics
					

This page provides updates about the current situation, latest case numbers and related information. It is updated every day by 9 pm AEST and reflects the previous 24 hours.




					www.health.gov.au


----------



## Treacle Toes (Apr 3, 2020)

I can see why this could be helpful but NAH...turn off your locations.

CORONAVIRUS: GOOGLE MAPS DATA RELEASED AS PART OF FIGHT AGAINST COVID-19 https://independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/google-maps-coronavirus-covid-19-data-privacy-security-a9444996.html…


----------



## cybershot (Apr 3, 2020)

Haven't been paying too much attention to this thread, so apologies if already posted. If you like graphs and being spied on by google via your android phone, then here's some analytics on people's movements down to City/County.



			https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/2020-03-29_GB_Mobility_Report_en.pdf


----------



## little_legs (Apr 3, 2020)

10% of Americans "not at all" concerned about covid-19


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 3, 2020)

Don't know if we've had this yet. BMJ reporting new findings from China plus evidence from Italy that the majority of people are asymptomatic. Silly stuff at the end about the lockdowns destroying economies, but it will change things if it proves to be true.



> Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that around four in five coronavirus infections caused no illness. Many experts believe that unnoticed, asymptomatic cases of coronavirus infection could be an important source of contagion.
> 
> A total of 130 of 166 new infections (78%) identified in the 24 hours to the afternoon of Wednesday 1 April were asymptomatic, said China’s National Health Commission.





> blanket testing in a completely isolated village of roughly 3000 people in northern Italy saw the number of people with covid-19 symptoms fall by over 90% within 10 days by isolating people who were symptomatic and those who were asymptomatic.



Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate

They will be reporting daily, so watch this space, I guess.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Don't know if we've had this yet. BMJ reporting new findings from China plus evidence from Italy that the majority of people are asymptomatic. Silly stuff at the end about the lockdowns destroying economies, but it will change things if it proves to be true.
> ..


I think we knew most cases were mild or not noticeable, if anything I would expect lockdowns being more important, because anyone or most people could be infectious? Sorry perhaps that is what you meant? Also social isolation, I could have it you could have it, we are 2m apart so hopefully both of us are safe?

The stuff at the end is reminiscent of "herd immunity"..


----------



## elbows (Apr 3, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Don't know if we've had this yet. BMJ reporting new findings from China plus evidence from Italy that the majority of people are asymptomatic. Silly stuff at the end about the lockdowns destroying economies, but it will change things if it proves to be true.



Thanks, I hadnt seen that particular article before but the potential implications of this sort of thing are why I have been wanking on about serological surveys for ages, why I decided not to take the WHO's Aylward at face value when he suggested few asymptomatic cases when he spoke around Feb 25th, and why I could not completely refute even the wankiest 'lockdown overreaction' sentiments from sections of the press.

Need more data, hence me going on about the Porton Down surveys once Hancock mentioned them yesterday.

Once enough data is obtained to see more of the real picture, the results could range from completely transformational to not significant enough to change strategy at this stage.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I think we knew most cases were mild or not noticeable, if anything I would expect lockdowns being more important, because anyone or most people could be infectious? Sorry perhaps that is what you meant? Also social isolation, I could have it you could have it, we are 2m apart so hopefully both of us are safe?


This isn't about mild, though, this is people who are entirely oblivious to the fact that they have it, or if they have ended up getting over it, that they ever had it.

If it's true, it means a few things. First, that loads of us have already had it without knowing, and second, yes, people could be infectious/have been infectious without knowing.

In some ways it doesn't change that much. It means the worst-case scenario is less bad. But it still means that the way out of this is to test, test, test.

ETA:

Also, just a note on 'mild'. In all the stats, 'mild' means 'not bad enough to be admitted to hospital'. Many people with 'mild' cases are still feeling absolutely shite.


----------



## elbows (Apr 3, 2020)

The implications for current and future strategy might come down to quite what proportion have already had it by the time they obtain that picture. If its a very large proportion already then there are implications for future timing and measures, but I'll have to wait and see what experts make of such a scenario if it happens.

Also note that this topic potentially fits with my strong interest in what the other, existing human coronaviruses looked like for humanity when they first arrived on the scene - eg does something that quickly ends up with a healthcare burden not too dissimilar to the common cold, still resemble a bad pandemic when it first arrives on the scene? Or to put a similar concept a different way, does a disease with a low overall mortality rate still cause a scary amount of death when it first arrives if it infects huge numbers of people in a short space of time?


----------



## elbows (Apr 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I think we knew most cases were mild or not noticeable, if anything I would expect lockdowns being more important, because anyone or most people could be infectious?



On a related note, when anecdotal evidence about asymptomatic infection and infectiousness sporadically popped up in the early stages of this pandemic, there were signs of a reluctance to accept the possibility, or reluctance to accept that it could be happening on a noteworthy scale. I put some of that down to natural biases of decision makers away from anything that complicates the picture in certain ways that have dramatic implications, away from anything that makes it harder to pretend that humans are in control of the situation and that the virus is within the range of our normal parameters and assumptions.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

IIRC it was proposed by China at the start that people were infectious before they had symptoms, and that most cases were mild or not noticeable. Or perhaps the not noticeable came more recently?


----------



## elbows (Apr 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> IIRC it was proposed by China at the start that people were infectious before they had symptoms, and that most cases were mild or not noticeable. Or perhaps the not noticeable came more recently?



It was a topic that came up plenty in the first weeks/month, yes. Mostly a combination of anecdotal evidence and existing assumptions about what proportion of mild cases to expect, rather than large volumes of data with which a proper picture could be determined. But later the picture was denied, including by the WHO China team, and thats when talk of such things faded, pending more data. I was expecting the subject to come back sooner than it did, and much of its recent return was model based (eg an Oxford model that we spoke about) or anti-lockdown knobhead opinion based, rather than being based on sufficient data. There are other exceptions to that though, eg this one which was also mentioned here before. Its hard to get carried away with this stuff due to the low numbers involved, which is why I alwys seem to be waiting for more data.









						Brussels hospital: 8% of patients are infected without knowing it
					

Over the past week, the university hospital of the Free University of Brussels in Jette (UZ Brussel) has been systematically submitting all new patients to a lung scan to detect the presence of the co




					www.brusselstimes.com


----------



## elbows (Apr 3, 2020)

Also the stuff about asymptomatic cases doesnt give me a proper picture unless it includes info about how many of those cases went on to experience symptoms eventually.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 3, 2020)

Does a single (e.g. antibody) test tell you whether you haven't had it/have got it/have had it but haven't now by the way?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Does a single (e.g. antibody) test tell you whether you haven't had it/have got it/have had it but haven't now by the way?


I think there is the existing swab test which tells you you have it now (or not), and the antibody test - which isn't available yet - which should tell you if you have had it. But as I understand it the antibody tests government have been looking at for mass use haven't yet been approved as effective.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 3, 2020)

ta


----------



## elbows (Apr 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I think there is the existing swab test which tells you you have it now (or not), and the antigen test - which isn't available yet - which should tell you if you have had it. But as I understand it the antibody tests government have been looking at for mass use haven't yet been approved as effective.



Close apart from a slight terminology accident - the antigen test is the swab test, looking for current infection.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

elbows said:


> Close apart from a slight terminology accident - the antigen test is the swab test, looking for current infection.


Thanks … indeed, my mistake


----------



## two sheds (Apr 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Thanks … indeed, my mistake



I bet they swab it 

unless they draw blood


----------



## two sheds (Apr 3, 2020)

From Skwawkbox  but sounds promising, anybody confirm? 

*



			According to the World Health Organisation, there is no evidence of re-infection with SARS-CoV-2 after recovery”
		
Click to expand...

*


> GP and former deputy chair of the British Medical Association Dr Kailash Chand writes:


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 3, 2020)

two sheds said:


> From Skwawkbox  but sounds promising, anybody confirm?



There's been a few reports of re-infection, but the suggestion is that they were given false negative results from tests, and then tested positive again.

Another suggestion is that a very few number of people could indeed get reinfected, just like some people do very rarely with chicken pox.


----------



## little_legs (Apr 3, 2020)




----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 3, 2020)

I almost started crying watching that.


----------



## lefteri (Apr 3, 2020)

Indeliblelink said:


> Delayed stats this week for all cause death across some European countries. A rise starting to show up in quite a few countries now.
> View attachment 204638



is that the world’s ecg?


----------



## editor (Apr 3, 2020)

little_legs said:


>



The guy's a dangerous fucking idiot. 



> According to Sherman, when New York’s governor, Andrew Cuomo, said that the state would need 30,000 ventilators at the apex of the coronavirus outbreak, Kushner decided that Cuomo was being alarmist. “I have all this data about I.C.U. capacity,” Kushner reportedly said. “I’m doing my own projections, and I’ve gotten a lot smarter about this. New York doesn’t need all the ventilators.” (Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top expert on infectious diseases, has said he trusts Cuomo’s estimate.)
> 
> Even now, it’s hard to believe that someone with as little expertise as Kushner could be so arrogant, but he said something similar on Thursday, when he made his debut at the White House’s daily coronavirus briefing: “People who have requests for different products and supplies, a lot of them are doing it based on projections which are not the realistic projections.”
> 
> Kushner has succeeded at exactly three things in his life. He was born to the right parents, married well and learned how to influence his father-in-law. Most of his other endeavors — his biggest real estate deal, his foray into newspaper ownership, his attempt to broker a peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians — have been failures.












						Opinion | Putting Jared Kushner In Charge Is Utter Madness (Published 2020)
					

Trump’s son-in-law has no business running the coronavirus response.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 3, 2020)

3000 deaths in New York alone apparently.


----------



## HAL9000 (Apr 3, 2020)

Pentagon Says FEMA Wants It To Find 100,000 Body Bags For Pandemic Fatalities





__





						NPR Cookie Consent and Choices
					





					www.npr.org


----------



## little_legs (Apr 3, 2020)

Edit: see elbows' post below for an update


----------



## elbows (Apr 3, 2020)

I went to see what that 38% claim actually was. From that site:



> *7:59 P.M. HMO chief's claim that 38% of city's residents probably infected was likely based on calculation error*
> 
> The CEO of the Maccabi HMO, Ran Sa'ar, said Thursday that he thought about 38 percent of Bnei Brak's residents were likely infected with the virus, but this may be based on a miscalculation. While the Health Ministry found that 35 percent of the coronavirus tests provided by Maccabi in the city did come out positive, most of those tested showed early symptoms of the virus. This means that the proportion of people infected with the virus in Bnei Brak is likely unusually higher than the national average, it is still far from 38 percent. The true number may be only about 10 percent of that assessment._ (Amos Harel)_


----------



## little_legs (Apr 3, 2020)

elbows - thanks for the correction/update


----------



## teqniq (Apr 3, 2020)

Not satisfied with not closing the beaches....









						FL Gov. Overrides County Officials to Allow Church During Coronavirus Lockdown
					

“Our hospitals better get ready,” Hillsborough County Commission Chairman Les Miller said. “That’s all I’m gonna say.”



					www.thedailybeast.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

BBC USA Update 

US set to recommend wearing of masks


> The White House is expected to advise Americans in coronavirus hotspots to wear cloth masks or scarves in public to help stop the virus spread.
> 
> President Donald Trump said such an advisory would not be mandatory.
> 
> ...





> "I don't understand why that's not happening," Dr Fauci told CNN late on Thursday. "If you look at what's going on in this country, I just don't understand why we're not doing that."


from New York to redistribute ventilators amid shortage

The young doctors being asked to play god


> When the tannoy blasts out a "Team 700" alert at Elmhurst hospital in Queens in New York City it is because a "crash" team is needed immediately. Someone is going into cardiac arrest.
> 
> In normal times that would happen maybe once a week. Yesterday, during the course of one 12-hour shift, there was a Team 700 announcement nine times. Not one of the patients survived, according to the young doctor I spoke to.
> ..





> And she says it is not just the old who are falling prey to this. "There are patients in their 30s and 40s with no pre-existing conditions. Equally, we had a 90-year old man the other day who was brought to the ER after he had fallen at home. He had a broken leg - but he also tested positive for coronavirus - even though he was exhibiting no symptoms."
> 
> It is a confounding virus, is Covid-19.
> 
> The hospital has been given double the number of ventilators that it originally had - but they are already being fully utilised and they need more. All are being used - and the peak of the curve is still weeks away. And she talks rather quietly when she describes a situation where not all of the people who need a ventilator are getting one.


from The young doctors being asked to play god

The US governor who saw it coming early


> At the podium for Tuesday's daily coronavirus press briefing, Republican Ohio Governor Mike DeWine provides the latest on the virus's march through his state - 2,199 cases, 55 deaths, 585 hospitalisations.
> ..
> But while the lesser known Mr DeWine, 73, may lack the media attention of Mr Cuomo, he is drawing praise for his early moves against the virus, at a time when much of the US was still playing catch-up.
> 
> On 5 March, after resistance from organisers, Mr DeWine got a court order to shut down much of the Arnold Sports Festival - an annual event featuring 20,000 athletes from 80 countries, around 60,000 spectators each day, and an expected $53m for Columbus, the state's largest city.





> The state had yet to report a single case
> ..
> At the time, critics dismissed Mr DeWine's strict regulations as overblown, largely out of step with Ohio's neighbouring states. And in terms of policy, the governor's approach put him at odds with fellow Republican Donald Trump, who until later in March downplayed the threat of the virus, saying it would "go away".
> 
> "On the front end of a pandemic you look a little bit alarmist, you look a little bit like a Chicken Little, the sky is falling," said Ohio Department of Health Director Amy Acton at a briefing this month. "At the end of a pandemic, you didn't do enough." ..


from The US governor who saw it coming early


----------



## little_legs (Apr 3, 2020)




----------



## frogwoman (Apr 3, 2020)

Twins born during pandemic named Corona and Covid
					

The names were chosen to remind them of the hardships they conquered during the outbreak.




					metro.co.uk


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 3, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Twins born during pandemic named Corona and Covid
> 
> 
> The names were chosen to remind them of the hardships they conquered during the outbreak.
> ...


 Like my aunties Luftwaffe and Veetoo. They've never been allowed to forget the Blitz.


----------



## HAL9000 (Apr 3, 2020)

Slammed By Trump, 3M Says N95 Mask Exports From U.S. Should Continue



> "There are, however, significant humanitarian implications of ceasing respirator supplies to healthcare workers in Canada and Latin America, where we are a critical supplier of respirators," 3M said.
> 
> Stopping the export of respirators, the company added, would also likely cause retaliation.
> 
> "If that were to occur, the net number of respirators being made available to the United States would actually decrease," 3M said. "That is the opposite of what we and the Administration, on behalf of the American people, both seek."







__





						NPR Cookie Consent and Choices
					





					www.npr.org


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

I have noticed at a recent white house press conference that everyone is standing very close to one another and Trump in the middle at the lectern, for quite a while. If one of them has it, there are going to be infections.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

Wuhan residents told to stay inside and stay vigilant as China begins to lift virus lockdown 


> The top official in Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in China, warned residents to stay vigilant and avoid going out, even as the latest data showed a decline in new cases in the mainland and zero new infections in the city.
> 
> The country where the virus emerged late last year will hold three minutes of silence nationwide on Saturday to mourn the thousands of "martyrs" who died in the fight against the epidemic, the official Xinhua news agency reported.





> Beijing has pushed the country's industries to go back to work as the epidemic eases, hoping for a quick recovery from what many analysts expect to have been a deep contraction for China's economy in the first quarter.
> 
> Top officials however remain concerned about the risk of a second wave of infections.
> 
> Wuhan Communist Party chief Wang Zhonglin said the threat of a rebound in the central city's coronavirus epidemic remained high and ordered residents to avoid leaving their homes unless it was necessary to do so.


from Wuhan residents told to stay inside and stay vigilant as China begins to lift virus lockdown


----------



## Tankus (Apr 3, 2020)

Over 1300 died  in France yesterday  and nearly the same number today....thats a very high body count ratio...maybe the  testing is a bit off


----------



## Azrael (Apr 3, 2020)

Tankus said:


> Over 1300 died  in France yesterday  and nearly the same number today....thats a very high body count ratio...maybe the  testing is a bit off


Outside a handful of countries -- South Korea, Iceland, Germamy, Bahrain -- testing's off everywhere!


----------



## Supine (Apr 3, 2020)

Tankus said:


> Over 1300 died  in France yesterday  and nearly the same number today....thats a very high body count ratio...maybe the  testing is a bit off



the testing doesn’t help reduce deaths directly


----------



## kabbes (Apr 3, 2020)

Tankus said:


> Over 1300 died  in France yesterday  and nearly the same number today....thats a very high body count ratio...maybe the  testing is a bit off


They changed their way of counting deaths to capture a much wider score than they had previously been doing (and which other countries do)


----------



## weltweit (Apr 3, 2020)

Showing news from India on BBC News atm, very worrying.

ETA: just 11 ventilators per million people.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 3, 2020)

kabbes said:


> They changed their way of counting deaths to capture a much wider score than they had previously been doing (and which other countries do)


Yep. The UK's real figure is probably closer to France's than to the UK's self-declared figure.  Just deaths in hospital atm in the UK, I believe.


----------



## Anju (Apr 3, 2020)

Nice comprehensive article on antibody testing, from what it is to who is working on it.
The coronavirus test that might exempt you from social distancing—if you pass


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

Anju said:


> Nice comprehensive article on antibody testing, from what it is to who is working on it.
> The coronavirus test that might exempt you from social distancing—if you pass


I liked the article, especially as I keep getting antigen and antibody mixed up  was interesting also to see US dollar prices for both tests. I could swear I heard US citizens were being charged loads for an antigen test.


----------



## D (Apr 4, 2020)

It is actually impossible to keep up with all that is happening, but I just wanted to share this bit of news I got from my brother, who is doing is medical residency at a major NYC hospital. Two residents (in their early 30s) have died today due to lack of adequate PPE.  I'm hoping to hear more about who they were.

It's nonstop sirens over here.  And the subways are still jammed with people who have no other way to get to and from work.  I'd like to share this article that my friend is extensively quoted in (she works for the Association for Neighborhood and Housing Development) that illustrates the totally unsurprising reality of the disparate impact on low income communities and communities of color in NYC.  There's so many articles I could share

New Map Shows COVID-19 Is Hitting People of Color Hardest 

In some positive news, one landlord in Brooklyn who owns 18 buildings canceled April rent for all his tenants.  And my friend who is a chef prepped a bunch of meals, which we arranged to have retrieved and delivered to some neighbors in need.

Also, one of the hospitals closest to me (a very large public teaching hospital) has just been designated COVID only.  Like my partner just read that just now.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

Hi @D I am actually a bit shocked to hear that 1) public transport is still running and 2) that people are still going to work. Is there a plan to reduce infections in NY?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

Anyone wanting to know more about what South Korea is doing?

zahir has posted a very informative interview with a senior Korean medic on the sensible information thread, it is here: 
	

	







						Sensible information and advice about Coronavirus (COVID-19)
					

I think once it's in your living environment, transmission is basically inevitable. There are just too many potential sources of contamination... Even if they self isolated in their room, presumably they'd still want to use the loo. Best to have a talk with your flatmate and make sure they're...




					www.urban75.net


----------



## elbows (Apr 4, 2020)

Singapores move to a full on sort of lockdown continues to take shape. Much to the dismay of those who were hoping to use it as proof that our lockdowns were excessive and that a more nuanced approach was sustainable throughout every possible phase a country that handled the start well could face later.



> SINGAPORE (Kyodo) -- Singapore on Friday tightened its measures to curb the coronavirus spread that effectively amounts to a monthlong partial lockdown, with people told to stay at home and most workplaces ordered to close, after an alarming increase in unlinked local cases.
> 
> "We will close most workplaces except for essential services and key economic sectors," Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on national television, adding that all schools and universities will switch to home-based learning.
> 
> "We have kept the outbreak under control, but looking at the trend, I am worried that unless we take further steps, things will get worse," he said.











						Singapore to impose partial lockdown for a month - The Mainichi
					

SINGAPORE (Kyodo) -- Singapore on Friday tightened its measures to curb the coronavirus spread that effectively amounts to a monthlong partial lockdow




					mainichi.jp


----------



## Anju (Apr 4, 2020)

Depressing reading. The headline isn't the only example.

"Valérie Pécresse, the influential president of the Île-de-France region, which includes Paris, described the race to get masks as a “treasure hunt”.

“I found a stock of masks that was available and Americans – I’m not talking about the American government – but Americans, outbid us,” Pécresse said. “They offered three times the price and they proposed to pay upfront. I can’t do that. I’m spending taxpayers’ money and I can only pay on delivery having checked the quality,” she told BFMTV. “So we were caught out.” Pécresse said she had finally obtained a consignment of 1.5m masks thanks to the help of Franco-Chinese residents in the Paris area."

There's other stuff people sending their own planes. It's fucked up.

US accused of 'modern piracy' after diversion of masks meant for Europe https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/mask-wars-coronavirus-outbidding-demand?


----------



## zahir (Apr 4, 2020)

More corona piracy


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Apr 4, 2020)

News from Poland. 

The source of the infections seem to be the hospitals themselves. 

20% of all postitve test results are from hospital staff. Several wards in hospitals all over the country have had to be closed. 

Seems like for all countries on lockdown containing viral spread begins and ends at getting hospitals in shape, and medical personel adequately protected. 

Needless to say, lockdown feels useless. We are starting to feel like while we are doing our "bit" the government aren't doing theirs and are happy to further restrict our movement while hospitals are in chaos and causing outbreaks amongst those already seriously ill. 

Fucking useless, they all are, honestly.


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 4, 2020)

COVID-19 is really hitting Moldova hard given stuff I'm seeing from friends and former work colleagues who live there.


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 4, 2020)

Mărturiile unui medic din prima linie: „Tot mai mulți dintre noi suntem contaminați, dar asta se ține în secret”
					

„Tot mai mulți dintre noi suntem contaminați, dar asta se ține în secret”, mărturisește un medic din cadrul Centrulului Național de Asistență Medicală Urgentă Prespitalicească (CNAMUP), care a apelat la AO „Juriștii pentru drepturile omului” pentru a povesti, sub protecția anonimatului, despre atitu




					www.zdg.md


----------



## little_legs (Apr 4, 2020)




----------



## little_legs (Apr 4, 2020)




----------



## frogwoman (Apr 4, 2020)

little_legs said:


>




Why???


----------



## HAL9000 (Apr 4, 2020)

> That first day at work, Buckalew said, she was told to take off her mask.
> 
> When she asked hospital administrators why, the reasons kept changing. First, Buckalew said she was told it was against hospital policy for health care workers to bring their own gear. Then, she said, administrators told her if she wore her own N95 mask, others would want to wear the masks as well and the hospital didn't have enough. Finally, Buckalew said, it was that CDC guidelines don't require the mask at all times.
> 
> ...



Doctors Say Hospitals Are Stopping Them From Wearing Masks


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 4, 2020)

My cousin hurt his hand a few weeks ago and went to A&E. He had his own mask and wore it just because he was wary of potentially picking up a bug.
When he arrived he was asked to remove the mask. He was surprised by this...and asked why. He was told it would scare other patients waiting in A&E.
Roll on to last Thursday when he had to go back to hospital.  He didnt wear his mask because of the ticking off he had received before.  As he sat in A&E he started to cough...he has a cold. A nurse came over and  handed him a mask and directed him to wear it. 

My brother who works in a hospital, has his own PPE but has been told not to wear a mask. That masks are reserved only for staff working directly with covid19.
He is now working in A&E and patients are to be streamed to a different section for covid19 but he is still acutely aware that a covid19 case could turn up in A&E. He has decided to wear his own PPE gear and mask. He was asked where he got them by other drs. He told them. They are now getting their own online and hoping they can get them soon. 

Ireland ordered loads of PPE from China. The first batch arrived on Sunday last. The arms are too short. The material is not easy to wear. And the masks dont fit many staff. 
The government has requested the Chinese company to make adjustment on the next shipment.
It's a fucking race against time and its not ok that frontline workers are getting infected. It's crazy. I cannot understand why governments were not on this in January. It was obvious that it would spread.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 4, 2020)

little_legs said:


>



The same thing has happened here


----------



## teqniq (Apr 4, 2020)

Heh. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy:









						Murdoch Facing Covid-19 Lawsuit Armageddon
					

If Rupert Murdoch and his fellow mafiosi thought that the sums being paid out to those alleging phone hacking and other acts of illegal data...




					zelo-street.blogspot.com


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 4, 2020)

little_legs said:


>




I've been in parks this week on my daily walks. I really don't think parks have been a major source of new infection since lockdown. I see far greater contact between people in supermarkets.

Maybe it will be different this weekend as the sun comes out, but on weekdays, everyone was staying well away from one another.


----------



## little_legs (Apr 4, 2020)

Parks chat - I take it you are not in London.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 4, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Parks chat - I take it you are not in London.


I am in London. Some parks have been closed. Those nearest to me haven't been closed. They're not packed out, and it would take some kind of * magic * mechanism for them to be hotbeds of transmission at the moment. 

Sadly the hotbeds of transmission right now are almost certainly the hospitals. New infections caught in hospital are probably dwarfing other sources at the moment. The lack of testing of NHS staff and lack of PPE is the real story here. How many people are still taking a daily walk in the park is a distraction from that, imo.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 4, 2020)

Anyone noticed an uptick in dodgy spam? I haven't seen save for a TV lisencing scam but there again I'm using Gmail whose spam filters are pretty good.









						Catching the virus  | Europol
					

During the COVID-19 pandemic, criminals have been quick to seize opportunities to exploit the crisis by adapting their modi operandi and engaging in new criminal activities. Cybercriminals have been among the most adept at exploiting the pandemic. The threat from cybercrime activities during the...




					www.europol.europa.eu


----------



## little_legs (Apr 4, 2020)

I am not saying that parks are the biggest contributor of infections, but both parks in my area are heaving with people. It wouldn't surprise me if, like Italy, the UK govt will go for further tightening up of the lockdown. 

If I had any say in any of this, I would straight up test everyone.


----------



## Doodler (Apr 4, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Anyone noticed an uptick in dodgy spam? I haven't seen save for a TV lisencing scam but there again I'm using Gmail whose spam filters are pretty good.



No just loads of naff 'reaching out' emails from pretty much every firm I've ever bought something from. "In this difficult time, we just wanted you to know we haven't forgotten about you" - that's nice seeing as they sold me some spreader clamps and a shitty mitre saw three years ago.


----------



## Anju (Apr 4, 2020)

More idiots misunderstanding things. I get the sensitivity but the guy clearly stated that trials would be in parallel. If it becomes too controversial and doesn't happen it will mean that rather than having the facilities and staff to kick start vaccinations already in place if a vaccine is found Africa will be the last to benefit. Fuckwits have gone from annoying to dangerous.
'Not guinea pigs': Africa vaccine trial suggestion sparks uproar


----------



## gosub (Apr 4, 2020)

Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,138,646 Cases and 61,142 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer   for days UK serious case has stuck at 163, new cases have risen, deaths has risen but serious cases sticks at 163   Is it the size of our ICU capacity?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

Latest on India coronavirus (COVID-19) situation, followed by details on states, union territories and cities.


> India has recorded 2,547confirmed cases, 62 deaths and 163 cured cases, according to the latest update released by the Union Ministry for Health and Family Welfare on Friday evening.
> 
> PM Modi urges citizens to dispel the darkness spread by Covid-19 by lighting a candle on 5 April.
> 
> ...


from Covid-19 pandemic in India updates: Coronavirus status by city and state


----------



## gosub (Apr 4, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Latest on India coronavirus (COVID-19) situation, followed by details on states, union territories and cities.
> 
> from Covid-19 pandemic in India updates: Coronavirus status by city and state



Sadly, I think the migration back to the villages may prove a bigger killer than the actual virus


----------



## D (Apr 4, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hi @D I am actually a bit shocked to hear that 1) public transport is still running and 2) that people are still going to work. Is there a plan to reduce infections in NY?



Essential workers need to get to work and unsurprisingly, there is no system for getting people to and from their jobs via taxi or other organized non public transit service. In fact, the MTA has substantially reduced service, which makes the trains even more crowded.  Everyone who can drive or walk is driving or walking.  But also meters are still in effect, which means if you commute to Manhattan by car from another part of the city, you are likely to be screwed unless you have someone driving that car back home and then picking you up later.

There are tons of plans that I can't go into right now (plenty of info available on line) and those plans are working to some extent within the limitations of our national, state, and local systems.  And, you know, capitalism.  And our shitty hospital/health care infrastructure.  And our incompetent and destructive president.  And on and on.


----------



## D (Apr 4, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hi @D I am actually a bit shocked to hear that 1) public transport is still running and 2) that people are still going to work. Is there a plan to reduce infections in NY?


If you read the link I linked to, you'll understand some of this more.


----------



## D (Apr 4, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hi @D I am actually a bit shocked to hear that 1) public transport is still running and 2) that people are still going to work. Is there a plan to reduce infections in NY?


also, without rent cancellation and utilities bills cancellations, it's unreasonable to expect that paycheck to paycheck laborers whose industries or workplaces are still  functioning in some way and whose jobs are not protected will stop working.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

D said:


> If you read the link I linked to, you'll understand some of this more.


Just read it, good stuff, plenty of food for thought ..


----------



## Cid (Apr 4, 2020)

gosub said:


> Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,138,646 Cases and 61,142 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer for days UK serious case has stuck at 163, new cases have risen, deaths has risen but serious cases sticks at 163   Is it the size of our ICU capacity?



I think it's not tracked properly, or not declared. Which is just great of course.


----------



## miss direct (Apr 4, 2020)

Latest rules in Turkey, as of last night: 
Over 65s and under 20s are not allowed out. 
All major cities are locked down -nobody in, nobody out. Intercity buses, trains and flights have been stopped. 

It's required to wear a mask when you're in a crowded place like a supermarket/chemist/on public transport.


----------



## elbows (Apr 4, 2020)

gosub said:


> Coronavirus Update (Live): 1,138,646 Cases and 61,142 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer   for days UK serious case has stuck at 163, new cases have risen, deaths has risen but serious cases sticks at 163   Is it the size of our ICU capacity?



They dont have enough data to make that figure meaningful for the UK.

For example, we are now getting number of hospitalised cases for England and Scotland, but they are often numbers mentioned in press conferences rather than published with the main numbers, in the case of England the numbers are being used in slides at the downing street briefings. 

Worldometer probably isnt using those (they are a recent thing) but Scotland have also mentioned in daily briefings how many people are in intensive care there. The figure given for this on April 2nd was 162, so it is reasonable to think this was the number being used by Worldometer for their serious cases UK figure. The official Scottish figure then went up to 176 the next day.


----------



## D (Apr 4, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Latest rules in Turkey, as of last night:
> Over 65s and under 20s are not allowed out.
> All major cities are locked down -nobody in, nobody out. Intercity buses, trains and flights have been stopped.
> 
> It's required to wear a mask when you're in a crowded place like a supermarket/chemist/on public transport.


Is there a system of food delivery set up for seniors and immune compromised folks? And are all health care providers over 60 barred from working? (I'll do some googling, but I'm just so curious about how this is actually working in other countries, since we have nothing like this in the US).

We also have this unfuckingbelievable bullshit:

"With the coronavirus outbreak creating an unprecedented demand for medical supplies and equipment, New York state has paid 20 cents for gloves that normally cost less than a nickel and as much as $7.50 each for masks, about 15 times the usual price. It’s paid up to $2,795 for infusion pumps, more than twice the regular rate. And $248,841 for a portable X-ray machine that typically sells for $30,000 to $80,000."

"With little guidance from the Trump administration, competition among states, cities, hospitals and federal agencies is contributing to the staggering bill for fighting the pandemic, which New York has estimated will cost it $15 billion in spending and lost revenue. The bidding wars are also raising concerns that facilities with shallow pockets, like rural health clinics, won’t be able to obtain vital supplies."









						In Desperation, New York State Pays Up To 15 Times The Normal Prices For Medical Equipment
					

State data shows that New York is paying enormous markups for vital supplies, including almost $250,000 for an X-ray machine. Laws against price gouging usually don’t apply.




					www.huffpost.com


----------



## D (Apr 4, 2020)

Also, the College of Staten Island, which is part of the CUNY (City University of NY) system has been turned into a hospital.  All universities have gone online, but many students may not have computer access or wifi at home and/or they may be sharing the computer with their entire family.  They may also not have access to physical space in their home conducive to learning.  Obviously, people will make the best of this.  But every aspect of the deep systemic injustices and infrastructural failures of this country are fully exposed and totally unraveling.  And while the NYC Dept of Education promised a tablet or laptop to every student, many students are still  waiting on the arrival of those laptops and, of course, neighbors are doing what they can to make sure personal devices get to students whenever possible.

In some positive news, it has been announced that the Dept of Education is now distributing 3 meals a day to ANYONE of ANY age at 400 sites across the city. No ID or registration required, which means undocumented NYers have potential access to these services.  Of course, many of these announcements have been made; but that doesn't always mean that they are actually happening or that the systems are in place for successful execution.


----------



## miss direct (Apr 4, 2020)

D said:


> Is there a system of food delivery set up for seniors and immune compromised folks? And are all health care providers over 60 barred from working? (I'll do some googling, but I'm just so curious about how this is actually working in other countries, since we have nothing like this in the US).



Well, this is a very family centred society, so most older people have family supporting them with food and general needs. Secondly, most apartment blocks here have a caretaker - most of these men are now making food deliveries to residents. Here in Istanbul you can get anything delivered. There is a council led scheme sending out food boxes to those who don't have any support. I asked my upstairs neighbour if they needed anything and she said they're fine, their son brings whatever they need. 

As for older workers, I'm not sure. Retirement age is pretty young here so I'd be surprised if there were workers in the health service aged over 60.


----------



## Boru (Apr 4, 2020)

And still large public gatherings continue.. this makes isolation and containment of infections nearly impossible..








						Car park closed after 'thousands' risk their lives and others by flocking to Cassiobury Park
					

Cassiobury Park car park has been closed after “thousands” of people risked their lives and others by choosing to flout government Covid-19…




					www.harrowtimes.co.uk


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 4, 2020)

Boru said:


> And still large public gatherings continue.. this makes isolation and containment of infections nearly impossible..
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This is the 'worldwide' thread, please keep posts like this to the UK thread.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 4, 2020)

Encouraging numbers coming out of Switzerland. They're on lockdown until at least 19 April, but may be in a position to make some sort of change by then. New cases on their way down for a couple of weeks now and new deaths now also, tentatively, should have peaked. Crucially they appear to have hit maximum active cases. Switzerland currently testing 6,000 people per day. That's the equivalent of about 50,000 per day here, so five times the rate, and up there with Germany. Also, like Germany, a very decentralised state. Patterns are emerging...

They have this in place now. Could be the future



> In order to prevent and slow down the spread of the virus as much as possible, those known to be affected have been isolated.
> 
> Anyone who has been in close contact with a sick person, i.e. less than two metres away for more than 15 minutes, must also remain in quarantine for two weeks.



Coronavirus: the situation in Switzerland

This, combined with a vigorous testing regime, appears to be helping to produce results and vastly reduce the death rate.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 4, 2020)

Fuck, sobering stuff about the real death rates. Including everyone - those who died at home from c19 and those who died because they couldn't get treatment for other things - the real death tolls could be as much as _four times _the official ones. This from Italy:



> _L’Eco di Bergamo_, a newspaper, has obtained data from 82 localities in Italy’s Bergamo province. In March these places had 2,420 more deaths than in March 2019. Just 1,140, less than half of the increase, were attributed to covid-19. “The data is the tip of the iceberg,” Giorgio Gori, the mayor of Bergamo’s capital, told _L’Eco_. “Too many victims are not included in the reports because they die at home.”



Covid-19’s death toll appears higher than official figures suggest


----------



## elbows (Apr 4, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Encouraging numbers coming out of Switzerland. They're on lockdown until at least 19 April, but may be in a position to make some sort of change by then. New cases on their way down for a couple of weeks now and new deaths now also, tentatively, should have peaked. Crucially they appear to have hit maximum active cases. Switzerland currently testing 6,000 people per day. That's the equivalent of about 50,000 per day here, so five times the rate, and up there with Germany. Also, like Germany, a very decentralised state. Patterns are emerging...



I still dont understand how you reach these conclusions. I will be absolutely astonished if they relax things as early as April 19th.



> ZURICH, April 3 (Reuters) - Switzerland is in a delicate but stable situation regarding the spread of the new coronavirus, Health Minister Alain Berset said on Friday as the country’s death toll continued to rise.
> 
> “Hospitalisations continue to go up but not all beds are taken,” Berset told a news conference in Bern.
> 
> “We have not yet reached the peak for infections or for hospitalisations. Now more than ever we have to continue this marathon.”











						Switzerland in delicate but stable condition on coronavirus - minister
					

Switzerland is in a delicate but stable situation regarding the spread of the new coronavirus, Health Minister Alain Berset said on Friday as the country's death toll continued to rise.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 4, 2020)

elbows said:


> I still dont understand how you reach these conclusions. I will be absolutely astonished if they relax things as early as April 19th.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I reach these conclusions by looking at the figures. New cases peaked two weeks ago - can say that with a cautious confidence. And new deaths may be peaking now, as expected if new cases peaked two weeks ago. Active cases may be peaking now at around 14,000-odd. These are tentative, but not baseless, conclusions, and the level of testing in Switzerland makes their figures likely to be more meaningful than most.


----------



## elbows (Apr 4, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I reach these conclusions by looking at the figures. New cases peaked two weeks ago - can say that with a cautious confidence. And new deaths may be peaking now, as expected if new cases peaked two weeks ago. Active cases may be peaking now at around 14,000-odd. These are tentative, but not baseless, conclusions, and the level of testing in Switzerland makes their figures likely to be more meaningful than most.



Figures for new cases per day are not a reliable guide to current rate of new infections. Because they arent a true story about infections, they are a mix of that but also a story of testing regime and capacity and specifics. Even a country like Switzerland with relatively impressive number of tests has not managed to get a system in place that could deliver an accurate picture with that measure alone. And there are regional variations and bottlenecks.

I dont know what measures exactly the authorities there use, but I'm sure other indicators are involved and that why on Friday they said they had not reached the peak for infections. You should take that into account. I'm going to have a look around and see if there is any hospital data for Switzerland that will add to a different part of the picture.

Also as epidemics progress, I would invite anyone who is interested in particular countries and has theories about what stage they are at and how well they are doing, to try and dig deeper. Specifically, I recommend starting to look at data for different regions of that country, if available, rather than just the country as a whole. Because epidemics will vary in scale and timing based on locality, and there is no reason for us to limit our sense of reality by only looking at countries as wholes. If you want to spot positive trends at the earliest opportunity, you may also have more luck by studying regional data, otherwise its possible to miss the peak of epidemics in a region because another region is heading in the opposite direction at the same time.


----------



## elbows (Apr 4, 2020)

Whole load of Switzerland data here, per canton, including hospitalisations and ICU stuff.





__





						ArcGIS Dashboards Classic
					






					ddrobotec.maps.arcgis.com
				




It will take me some time to spot anything in this data, and I havent yet determined how easy it will be for me to plot changes of it over time. I'm not sure how interested in Switzerland in particular I am, so I might not be the person for that job anyway.


----------



## elbows (Apr 4, 2020)

Also note it includes links to its sources, I clicked on the one for Geneva and got all manner of interesting charts over time in their official update:



			https://www.ge.ch/document/covid-19-situation-epidemiologique-geneve/telecharger
		


Sadly the data is not presented in the same way everywhere else, the amount of detail and visual presentations seems to vary a lot between cantons.


----------



## Mation (Apr 4, 2020)

little_legs said:


>



The UK is later in locking down on entertainment, but comparable. I wonder if the parks thing, though, is because we have more/bigger parks here? 

This may very well not generalise, but London has more and larger parks compared to, say, Paris. It's possible to go out to the park and still do social distancing here in London, whereas it might not be elsewhere.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

US hospitals come under increasing strain


> In the US hospitals across the country are coming under increasing strain. In Louisiana, the death toll is mounting and there are concerns that the state could run out of hospital beds. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has ordered the National Guard to seize and redistribute any ventilators and personal protective equipment from facilities in the state. Florida has issued a stay-at-home order – over the past week cases in the state have been growing by hundreds daily.
> 
> Read more: Coronavirus latest: US hospitals come under increasing strain


from 03/04/2020 Coronavirus latest: US hospitals come under increasing strain


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

More 

*New York City hospitals and morgues overwhelmed*


> A doctor in New York City has described the situation in hospitals as “apocalyptic, complete chaos.” They said, “We just aren’t able to offer people a proper standard of care – like sitting and talking to them about their treatment – and it’s getting worse day by day.” Some of the morgues in the city are already filled to capacity.


*US unemployment claims hit new record*


> A record 6.6 million US citizens applied for unemployment benefits last week, reflecting thehuge impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy. The job losses have mostly affected people who work in retail, restaurants, travel, hotels and leisure industries. The previous weekly unemployment record was set a week earlier, at 3.3 million. State services across the US have been overwhelmed with the large numbers of people filing for benefits.


----------



## elbows (Apr 4, 2020)

My cautious approach to interpreting data means that I will not usually be the sort of person who will alert people to any positive news early. But I can report on what other countries are saying, and Spain is now newsworthy on this front:









						Coronavirus: Spain 'close to passing peak' as deaths fall again
					

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has extended lockdown measures in the country until 25 April.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez says the country is "close to passing the peak of infections" as the number of coronavirus deaths fell for the second day in a row.
> 
> Mr Sánchez also extended lockdown measures until 25 April, saying the restrictions were "saving lives".
> 
> The toll of 809 deaths in one day is the lowest in Spain for a week.



They also offer some clues about what a new normal may be like in the next phase:



> Meanwhile, officials are trying to get masks for all citizens as part of plans to eventually ease restrictions.
> 
> Face masks are currently almost impossible to get hold of in Spain. The government had previously said they served little purpose outside hospitals.
> 
> However, views on wearing masks appear to be shifting in Western countries, with US health authorities on Friday recommending their use in public. Austria, the Czech Republic, Israel and Turkey have also mandated the use of masks in various public places.





> Addressing the nation, Mr Sánchez said extending the lockdown for two weeks was necessary to give the health service time to recover.
> 
> "These are the most difficult days of our lives," he said.
> 
> Once the number of new infections was under control a "progressive return to a new normal" would get under way to rebuild the economy, he said. New hygiene, detection and tracing measures would be in place.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

Nations with Mandatory TB Vaccines Show Fewer Coronavirus Deaths


> New study finds a correlation, but clinical trials are still in progress
> 
> The preliminary study posted on medRxiv, a site for unpublished medical research, finds a correlation between countries that require citizens to get the bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccine and those showing fewer number of confirmed cases and deaths from Covid-19. Though only a correlation, clinicians in at least six countries are running trials that involve giving frontline health workers and elderly people the BCG vaccine to see whether it can indeed provide some level of protection against the new coronavirus.





> Gonzalo Otazu, assistant professor at the New York Institute of Technology and lead author of the study, started working on the analysis after noticing the low number of cases in Japan. The country had reported some of the earliest confirmed cases of coronavirus outside of China and it hadn’t instituted lockdown measures like so many other countries have done.


from 02/04/2020 Nations with Mandatory TB Vaccines Show Fewer Coronavirus Deaths


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

To add 


> Among high-income countries showing large number of Covid-19 cases, the U.S. and Italy recommend BCG vaccines but only for people who might be at risk, whereas Germany, Spain, France and the U.K. used to have BCG vaccine policies but ended them years to decades ago. China, where the pandemic began, has a BCG vaccine policy but it wasn’t adhered to very well before 1976, Otazu said. Countries including Japan and South Korea, which have managed to control the disease, have universal BCG vaccine policies.



Early days, but interesting I hope.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

from Why Covid-19 has spread so fast in the US


----------



## little_legs (Apr 4, 2020)

The most powerful country in the history of the world y'all:


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

Texas City Mandates People Wear Masks in Public or Face $1,000 Fines


> Should you wear a mask during the coronavirus pandemic? The city of Laredo, Texas, has decided that yes, you do. And if you don’t wear one, they could fine you.
> 
> The city’s emergency mandate, which went into effect on April 2, states that every person over the age of five must wear “some form of covering over their nose and mouth” when using public transportation, taxis, ride shares, pumping gas or when inside a building open to the public. That face covering can include a homemade mask, scarf, bandana or handkerchief. The penalty for violating the order is a Class C misdemeanor, punishable by a fine up to $1,000.


from 04/04/2020 Texas City Mandates People Wear Masks in Public or Face $1,000 Fines


----------



## Supine (Apr 4, 2020)

weltweit said:


> from Why Covid-19 has spread so fast in the US
> 
> View attachment 204981



I haven't read the article but can't see the value of this graph. When analysing data you need to be clear about cause and affect. I don't see that conducting tests relates to number of cases. Maybe number of detected cases but so what.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

Supine said:


> I haven't read the article but can't see the value of this graph. When analysing data you need to be clear about cause and affect. I don't see that conducting tests relates to number of cases. Maybe number of detected cases but so what.


My understanding of that chart is that it shows the more you test the more cases you find. That is just confirmed cases, not hospitalisations or deaths. So for example UK hasn't done much testing and who would have guessed it we haven't found many cases etc .. 

I think it does need an idea of the numbers of fatalities in mind while looking at it. So for example we know Italy has had many deaths - and they have been doing quite a lot of testing and finding lots of cases. However UK & USA also now have plenty of deaths yet they haven't been testing much and appear to have just a few cases .. 

I suppose a three dimensional chart including fatalities might have been more useful, but perhaps not have looked so pretty ?


----------



## Nine Bob Note (Apr 4, 2020)

I've reluctantly ordered a mask off eBay, but I won't be wearing it until the day these armchair surgeon-generals make it law


----------



## zahir (Apr 4, 2020)

It looks like the Faroe Islands may be having some success.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 4, 2020)

WHO Press conference from 03/04/2020


----------



## zahir (Apr 4, 2020)

More on the Faroe Islands outbreak.



> The significant salmon farming on the islands requires test equipment to check for Salmon isavirus, which was repurposed in 2009 against the Pandemic H1N1/09 virus. The equipment was adapted to test for COVID-19, and ready by February 2020 to test 600 per day instead of waiting days for samples to be sent to Denmark for testing.[3] The usual epidemic strategy of testing and tracking disease cases has been abandoned in most countries because their health care system has been overwhelmed. The Faroe Islands is seen as an exception due to its large testing capacity relative to its population size; a miniature laboratory with lessons on how to handle the disease.







__





						COVID-19 pandemic in the Faroe Islands - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






> Before getting into the numbers, a few notes about precautions taken there since March 12: no more than 100 people were allowed to be in a place at a time, a maximum of 10 people could be on a bus, social isolation required if you tested positive as well as quarantine for anyone you’ve been in contact with, anyone coming from overseas had to home quarantine themselves, strict restrictions on hospital and elderly care facility visitations, schools closed, and work-from-home orders where possible. Testing started in late February and they didn’t have the problem that many other places had due to a limited number of tests (_ahem, USA_) because an expert on the Faroe Islands had developed testing there starting in January so that they wouldn’t have to rely on Denmark for the tests. The first confirmed case came on March 4 and the second on March 6.











						Faroe Islands: 4000+ Tested For Coronavirus, 173 Infected, 1 Hospitalized, 0 Deaths
					

As I've lamented before, we have poor data — very poor data — on the coronavirus and resulting COVID-19 disease that is wreaking havoc on our world. The Faroe Islands, though, appear to have some good data. Let's have a look.




					cleantechnica.com
				




Up to date data on this official site.








						Korona í Føroyum
					

Kunning og seinastu tøl um korona í Føroyum




					corona.fo
				






> Twenty years ago, the Faroese salmon industry was ravaged by an influenza, the ‘ISA-virus’, which wiped out about 90 percent of its salmon. In response, an infrastructure for testing was introduced that included a laboratory and equipment. Debes Christiansen, a geneticist at the Faroese Food Authority, had the idea in January to utilise these facilities for coronavirus testing purposes, and they have proven to be directly transferrable 20 years later. As a result, according to figures from the National Board of Health, about 8.3 percent of the Faroese population have been tested, making it the highest per capita for testing in the world. In Denmark, approximately 0.4 percent have been tested. Some 173 people have tested positive for COVID-19 in the Faroe Islands, and so far no Faroese have died from the infection – thanks in part to rapid detection and containment.











						The Copenhagen Post - Danish News in English
					

As the coronavirus outbreak spreads to almost every corner of the Earth – a BBC report today claims that just 18 countries, mostly in Oceania and Africa, don’t have a confirmed case yet – it turns out the Faroe Islands has been among the best equipped to combat the virus thanks to, of all...




					cphpost.dk
				






> In the Faroe Islands, citizens who report even mild symptoms of coronavirus are tested. Many other countries report a lack of testing capacity, but this is not the case in the Faroe Islands. At all three hospitals, the Faroese health services offer a “drive-in test” for citizens who report symptoms of COVID-19.





> *Pál Weihe,* who is a Faroese professor and expert in public health, welcomes the great testing possibilities in the Faroe Islands. “We continue to contain the virus and believe it’s important to know as accurately as possible who and how many are infected so that we can quarantine and stop the spreading”, he says. In the Faroe Islands, the health authorities track every single corona case and every person that has been in contact with an infected person. The experience of a previous virus outbreak helps. ”











						The secret to the Faroe Islands’ large number of corona tests
					






					www.tmf-dialogue.net


----------



## weltweit (Apr 5, 2020)

Developing antibody tests for SARS-CoV-2


> Laboratories and diagnostic companies are racing to produce antibody tests, a key part of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Anna Petherick reports.
> ..
> there is a palpable hurry to limit economic damage, to get people back to work, and to reopen borders—and those whose immunity can be demonstrated should be able to return to work, without risk. Some regulators, such as the US Food & Drug Administration (FDA), have already chosen to relax normal assessment criteria.
> ..





> “At the moment we are only estimating the number of people who have been infected. No one in the world has measured that properly yet”, says Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK. “We think that children are infective but asymptomatic, for example, but we don’t know enough about this—and that information matters for decisions about whether to close schools.”
> ..





> Antibody tests are different because they require some knowledge of the proteins that form the viral coat—specifically, those proteins to which the immune system responds, triggering the production of antibodies that flag or neutralise the virus. Those sections of the viral protein coat must then be produced in the laboratory, using cell lines, for inclusion in an immunoassay (eg, ELISA) that detects whether antibodies are present. Such immunoassays will form the basis of home testing kits for people who think they have had COVID-19.
> ..





> “All viral proteins will elicit antibody responses to some extent”, says Berend-Jan Bosch, a coronavirus specialist at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. “But the spike protein is the main antigen that elicits neutralising antibodies, as this protein is the sole protein on the viral surface that is responsible for entry into the host cell.”
> ..





> Which part of the spike protein to use is less obvious, however. A team at New York's Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai (NY, USA), has published details of antibody tests that use either the whole spike protein, modified slightly to improve its stability during mass production in cell lines, or only the receptor-binding domain. Others, such as Peng Zhou, who leads the bat virus infection and immunity group at the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China, and was part of the team that sequenced SARS-CoV-2's genetic code in January, have used the nucleocapsid protein and the spike protein. Zhou's antibody test is one of at least ten antibody tests that have already been deployed in hospitals across China.


That is probably enough to post, it is a long article, if you find it of interest I suggest visiting the page.

from 04/04/2020 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30788-1/fulltext


----------



## weltweit (Apr 5, 2020)

Facemask shortage and the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak: Reflections on public health measures


> Facemask wearing with proper hand hygiene is considered an effective measure to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but facemask wearing has become a social concern due to the global facemask shortage. China is the major facemask producer in the world, contributing to 50% of global production. However, a universal facemask wearing policy would put an enormous burden on the facemask supply.
> ..





> Findings
> Regardless of different universal facemask wearing policy scenarios, facemask shortage would occur but eventually end during our prediction period (from 20 Jan 2020 to 30 Jun 2020). The duration of the facemask shortage described in the scenarios of a country-wide universal facemask wearing policy, a universal facemask wearing policy in the epicentre, and no universal facemask wearing policy were 132, seven, and four days, respectively. During the prediction period, the largest daily facemask shortages were predicted to be 589·5, 49·3, and 37·5 million in each of the three scenarios, respectively. In any scenario, an N95 mask shortage was predicted to occur on 24 January 2020 with a daily facemask shortage of 2·2 million.



Recommend reading the full text 

from 02/04/2020 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30073-0/fulltext


----------



## blameless77 (Apr 5, 2020)

APRIL 1ST

Day 11 of lockdown. 

The pubs have closed, along with most shops. 
No airplanes pass; the odd helicopter can be heard in the distance. 

People go out for exercise, or to carry out ‘key worker’ tasks. 

The supermarkets, briefly empty of produce, have instituted 
rationing, distanced queuing and priority hours for 
the vulnerable and NHS workers.

The parks are full of people 
getting their 1/2 hour
of government-prescribed exercise;
joggers sprint past, exhaling 
and shedding drops of sweat; 
children scoot past the closed playgrounds; 
every water fountain is dry; every toilet barred. 

The enemy is invisible and everywhere - it even fills the news. 
Everyone’s having the same conversations.
Why is there no toilet paper or pasta in the shops?

The US is winning the death and infections chart - it, along with 
Spain and Italy has long passed China. 

Perhaps 30% of those who will die are moribund. 

One scientist described coronavirus as ‘packing a year’s worth of risk into two weeks’. 
An apparently healthy 13 year old boy died today in Brixton. 
It feels like a lottery.

The world has gone mad for Zoom, and just as quickly tired of it. 
Everyone is connected.
Everyone is alone.

The children are adapting to absent teachers. 
Matilda says she misses structure. We must make some. 
Ella is stressed about not reaching her potential. 
It could be six months, or even nine, before things start to feel normal again. 

A lot of people will die, but slowly and avoidably, 
because of shortages and human imperfection.

Yoga types will say it is Mother Earth, cleansing herself…
until they lose someone they love.

Business types will make a killing.

And I? I’ll try and remember that this 
is one moment in life…
and that the world still turns

and continues.


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 5, 2020)

It is a long read, but is an accurate timeline for my country, Canada.









						From apathy to panic: timeline of Canada's home front battle against COVID-19
					

Part 1, First Response “We are ready. We are prepared,” Dr. Deena Hinshaw The COVID-19 crises hit the world hard in late January 2020, plunging both federal…




					edmontonjournal.com


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 5, 2020)

Oh Canada, we stand on guard for thee.

U.S. Withholding N95 Masks, Turning Away Canadians On Cruises Sparks Outrage On Social Media








						Amid COVID-19 Tensions, Canadians Remind U.S. They’ve Always Had Their Back
					

Canada has a long history of helping the U.S. in times of crisis. Now the novel coronavirus has many claiming the U.S. government is turning its back on its strongest ally.




					www.huffingtonpost.ca
				





and, basically, fuck you usa.


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 5, 2020)

Noam Chomsky talking about the coronavirus and the world's response.....at 91 years of age.
I hope he gets through this.

Fast forward to 2: 25 to skip the intro.

Oh..and watch to the end for Noam's parrot 🙂


----------



## Shechemite (Apr 5, 2020)

The estimated 1 million persons with disabilities that live segregated in residential institutions are now more vulnerable than ever, facing increased risk of infection by COVID-19, physical and psychological abuse due to isolation, neglect and even abandonment.





__





						Page not found – European Disability Forum
					






					www.edf-feph.org


----------



## zahir (Apr 5, 2020)

Outbreak at another Greek refugee camp.









						Greece Quarantines Second Camp After Coronavirus Case Confirmed
					

Greece has quarantined a second migrant facility on its mainland after a 53-year-old man tested positive for the new coronavirus, the migration ministry said on Sunday.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 5, 2020)

> One of the oldest forms of immunotherapy is being pressed into action again. A study in _JAMA_ follows the transfer of serum from five donors who had recovered from the respiratory disease COVID-19 and had high titers of immunoglobulin G antibodies to the causative coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 to five patients on mechanical ventilation. Three of the five recipients were weaned from assisted ventilation and were subsequently discharged. The study has many limitations beyond the small number of patients, including the lack of a placebo group and the diverse set of treatments, including antivirals, that each patient was receiving.


from 03/04/2020 COVID-19 Research in Brief: 28 March to 3 April, 2020


----------



## weltweit (Apr 5, 2020)

Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts


> Background
> Isolation of cases and contact tracing is used to control outbreaks of infectious diseases, and has been used for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whether this strategy will achieve control depends on characteristics of both the pathogen and the response. Here we use a mathematical model to assess if isolation and contact tracing are able to control onwards transmission from imported cases of COVID-19.





> Findings
> Simulated outbreaks starting with five initial cases, an _R_0 of 1·5, and 0% transmission before symptom onset could be controlled even with low contact tracing probability; however, the probability of controlling an outbreak decreased with the number of initial cases, when _R_0 was 2·5 or 3·5 and with more transmission before symptom onset. Across different initial numbers of cases, the majority of scenarios with an _R_0 of 1·5





> were controllable with less than 50% of contacts successfully traced. To control the majority of outbreaks, for _R_0 of 2·5 more than 70% of contacts had to be traced, and for an _R_0 of 3·5 more than 90% of contacts had to be traced. The delay between symptom onset and isolation had the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable when _R_0 was 1·5. For _R_0 values of 2·5 or 3·5, if there were 40 initial cases, contact tracing and isolation were only potentially feasible when less than 1% of transmission occurred before symptom onset


from 28/02/2020 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30074-7/fulltext

The greater the transmission rate, the greater the percentage of contact tracing is required to achieve control of the outbreak. I don't think I have seen the replication rate mentioned in relation to the UK, but as we are dealing with only lockdown and not contact tracing the point seems moot. Also this study dates from the end of February so it could have been made redundant by subsequent events.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 5, 2020)

weltweit said:


> from 03/04/2020 COVID-19 Research in Brief: 28 March to 3 April, 2020




Could you also post these in the “useful treatments” thread weltweit ?

It’s potentially really interesting. Doing stuff on the fly like this often leads to useful developments. It’s completely unethical in normal times, but completely unethical _not_ to do it at times like this.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 5, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Could you also post these in the “useful treatments” thread weltweit ?
> 
> It’s potentially really interesting. Doing stuff on the fly like this often leads to useful developments. It’s completely unethical in normal times, but completely unethical _not_ to do it at times like this.


Hi SheilaNaGig good point, I will try and remember, I am getting a bit confused by all the threads if I am honest.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 5, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hi SheilaNaGig good point, I will try and remember, I am getting a bit confused by all the threads if I am honest.




Yeah, me too. It’s all a bit of a sprawl, eh.


----------



## editor (Apr 5, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Latest on India coronavirus (COVID-19) situation, followed by details on states, union territories and cities.
> 
> from Covid-19 pandemic in India updates: Coronavirus status by city and state


Interesting piece in the FT 









						Arundhati Roy: ‘The pandemic is a portal’ | Free to read
					

The novelist on how coronavirus threatens India — and what the country, and the world, should do next




					www.ft.com


----------



## TopCat (Apr 5, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Trump extends US guidelines beyond Easter
> 
> 
> from Trump extends US virus guidelines to end of April
> ...


It seems stark to me, shocking as that is, that the US govt dont feel empathy and assistance is the way to go. It's barely human.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 5, 2020)

Antibody home test kit available in days.









						How does a coronavirus antibody home test kit work, and how do I get one? — The Telegraph
					

Download the free Telegraph app




					apple.news


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 5, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> My cousin hurt his hand a few weeks ago and went to A&E. He had his own mask and wore it just because he was wary of potentially picking up a bug.
> When he arrived he was asked to remove the mask. He was surprised by this...and asked why. He was told it would scare other patients waiting in A&E.
> Roll on to last Thursday when he had to go back to hospital.  He didnt wear his mask because of the ticking off he had received before.  As he sat in A&E he started to cough...he has a cold. A nurse came over and  handed him a mask and directed him to wear it.
> 
> ...




Update on the PPF from China. 
The HSE says 65% of the overalls / gowns are suitable and to specifications. But that staff will need to become familiar with them and how to remove them safely .

And 20% overall ppf sent is unsuitable. See video in the newspaper link









						Coronavirus: HSE says 20% of delivered protective equipment is unsuitable
					

HSE chief executive Paul Reid says number of tests to rise to 4,500 per day from this week




					www.irishtimes.com


----------



## TopCat (Apr 5, 2020)

TopCat said:


> It seems stark to me, shocking as that is, that the US govt dont feel empathy and assistance is the way to go. It's barely human.


All empires collapse. Will this be their big moment?


----------



## magneze (Apr 5, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Antibody home test kit available in days.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Where does it say 'in days'?


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 5, 2020)

TopCat said:


> All empires collapse. Will this be their big moment?




America has been crumbling into the sea for a fair while now. It started slowly and subtly. I remember coming back from a visit and saying "Something has changed.. the star is in the descendant now..." but not being able to explain why I felt that. This was about 18 months before 9/11.


----------



## Ax^ (Apr 5, 2020)

magneze said:


> Where does it say 'in days'?





magneze said:


> Where does it say 'in days'?



ah can you expect him to read the whole article.. it does not even praise trump in any sort of way


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 5, 2020)

magneze said:


> Where does it say 'in days'?


----------



## magneze (Apr 5, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> View attachment 205065


That's not in your link.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 5, 2020)

magneze said:


> That's not in your link.



It is on mine (Apple news link).


----------



## elbows (Apr 5, 2020)

Its a sloppy article. The 'within days from Amazon and Boots' was a claim made by someone from PHE which was widely covered by the press around March 25th, but it was quickly shot down by the government when questions were asked about it.

The article also contains out of date info about how many antibody tests the UK government had provisionally ordered (subject to those tests passing validation, which sounds like its a challenge as some of the ones tested so far have been far too unreliable). I'm sure that a few days ago Hancock gave an updated figure that was millions higher than the number included in the article.

Despite the date on that article, in many ways it reads like something a week or so out of date.


----------



## RTWL (Apr 5, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> Noam Chomsky talking about the coronavirus and the world's response.....at 91 years of age.
> I hope he gets through this.
> 
> Fast forward to 2: 25 to skip the intro.
> ...




He is looking more like a garden noam than a Noam Chomsky ATM 

Great stuff . Unprecedented levels of contextualization on this  

Long live Chomsky !


----------



## weltweit (Apr 5, 2020)

When will a coronavirus vaccine be ready?


> Human trials will begin imminently – but even if they go well and a cure is found, there are many barriers before global immunisation is feasible


from 19 March 2020. When will a coronavirus vaccine be ready?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 5, 2020)

Report 9 - Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand


> Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges. We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the





> same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.





> We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members. This may need to be supplemented by school and university closures, though it should be recognised that such closures may have negative impacts on health systems due to increased absenteeism. The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package – or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed.





> We show that intermittent social distancing – triggered by trends in disease surveillance – may allow interventions to be relaxed temporarily in relative short time windows, but measures will need to be reintroduced if or when case numbers rebound. Last, while experience in China and now South Korea show that suppression is possible in the short term, it remains to be seen whether it is possible long-term, and whether the social and economic costs of the interventions adopted thus far can be reduced.


from 16/03/2020 Report 9 - Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand

Underline added by me

I suppose suppression is likely to be indefinite, and could be testing tracing and isolation, it does not have to mean lockdown for the duration of the 18 months.


----------



## TopCat (Apr 5, 2020)

If it mutated however


----------



## weltweit (Apr 5, 2020)

TopCat said:


> If it mutated however


I haven't quite got my head round it yet - but as I understand it the virus in China Europe and USA are all identifiably slightly different strains which can be identified. If anyone knows more about this I am interested to know ..


----------



## elbows (Apr 5, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I haven't quite got my head round it yet - but as I understand it the virus in China Europe and USA are all identifiably slightly different strains which can be identified. If anyone knows more about this I am interested to know ..



There are always small changes going on to the virus, which allows those looking at its genomes to map the evolution of various branches of the vrus as it spreads around the world.

Most of these changes are inconsequential to how bad the virus is for people. There can be exceptions to that, but humanity probably only notices that when a clear pattern emerges. And probably human knowledge at this stage is not sophisticated enough to even begin to understand what a lot of the changes mean. So unless they have a big effect on how transmissible the virus is or how readily it could kill someone infected, I dont think we'd spot any implications of particular changes.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its a sloppy article. The 'within days from Amazon and Boots' was a claim made by someone from PHE which was widely covered by the press around March 25th, but it was quickly shot down by the government when questions were asked about it.
> 
> The article also contains out of date info about how many antibody tests the UK government had provisionally ordered (subject to those tests passing validation, which sounds like its a challenge as some of the ones tested so far have been far too unreliable). I'm sure that a few days ago Hancock gave an updated figure that was millions higher than the number included in the article.
> 
> Despite the date on that article, in many ways it reads like something a week or so out of date.



I’ll let you know if I hear Amazon are delivering these kits any time soon.


----------



## elbows (Apr 5, 2020)

One more thing about the mutation stuff. Despite all the routine cliched scary stuff about deadly viruses mutating in even more deadly ways, the main implication of continual virus evolution that we will face multiple times in our lives is something else entirely.

Immunity. There is more than one reason why our immunity to a virus may fade over time. It could be our own immune systems becoming less primed to deal with that particular virus again as the years go by, for reasons to do with our own biology. But the other reason this happens is down to viruses that mutate gradually over time, or recombine parts of themselves with other strains when the opportunity arises. With those, when such events happen it means they are sufficiently different from what our immune system has dealt with before, that they are less likely to evoke the best immune response, and our bodies have to fight them using more generic immune responses until our immune system 'learns' about the new variety. 

This description contains numerous oversimplifications, hopefully none of them are too misleading.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> ..
> This description contains numerous oversimplifications, hopefully none of them are too misleading.


No worries. These strains are what people refer to casually as "mutation" though? ..


----------



## elbows (Apr 5, 2020)

weltweit said:


> No worries. These strains are what people refer to casually as "mutation" though? ..



Yes but always look for the detail because the terms dont reveal much. For example someone could be talking about 2 strains of a virus, but that doesnt imply whether the two strains are actually related, or in which way. The two strains could have common ancestors, but that might have been a very long time ago, or one strain may have emerged from the other, or they may have little in common on that front at all. I'm not sure of all of the language that the people who actually work in this field would use, but I've seen clade and subclade used and these might be much more appropriate terms for some things, not sure.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 5, 2020)

New report recommends U.K. govt pursue China for damages.





__





						China owes us £531 billion: Britain should pursue Beijing through international courts for coronavirus compensation, major study claims as 15 top Tories urge 'reset' in UK relations with country
					





					www.msn.com


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 5, 2020)

Coronavirus: Varadkar returns to practising medicine to help during crisis
					

Taoiseach rejoined medical register in March and is set to work one shift a week with HSE




					www.irishtimes.com
				




Fair play to an Taoiseach Leo Veradkar. 
He is back on the medical register and doing one medical shift a week. 
Hats off to him. Really.


----------



## editor (Apr 5, 2020)

Noooo









						Marianne Faithfull Hospitalized After Testing Positive for Coronavirus
					

“She is stable and responding to treatment,” singer’s management company says




					www.rollingstone.com


----------



## little_legs (Apr 5, 2020)




----------



## weltweit (Apr 5, 2020)

An exercise in self infection, but they will waste medical resources! 

And they will infect others 

Perhaps they just are stupid? :-/


----------



## Doodler (Apr 5, 2020)

weltweit said:


> An exercise in self infection, but they will waste medical resources!
> 
> And they will infect others
> 
> Perhaps they just are stupid? :-/



Fortunately such people often congregate in spacious and distinctive-looking buildings. This would make enforced quarantining easier.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 5, 2020)

Doodler said:


> Fortunately such people often congregate in spacious and distinctive-looking buildings. This would make enforced quarantining easier.


I think their politicians are just terrified of their voters ..


----------



## little_legs (Apr 5, 2020)




----------



## Anju (Apr 5, 2020)

Bit more religious madness. The figures should be an eye opener for anyone not trying their best to socially distance. Ultra Orthodox make up 10% to the population but account for 50% of cases, though that's reported as being reported in local media.
Israel's ultra-Orthodox Jews in fight over virus rules - France 24


----------



## teqniq (Apr 5, 2020)

Have we had this yet? If so, apologies. the Financial Times ffs. Strange times.



from the article:


----------



## shifting gears (Apr 5, 2020)

🤔


----------



## 2hats (Apr 5, 2020)

shifting gears said:


> 🤔




Six other lions and tigers at the same zoo too.

There is some research (DOI:10.1101/2020.03.30.015347 ; note preprint yet to undergo peer review) that suggests that felines and ferrets are particularly prone to transmission of SARS-CoV-2.









						Cats, Ferrets Susceptible to SARS-CoV-2: Study
					

Researchers report that dogs, pigs, chickens, and ducks did not easily become infected.




					www.the-scientist.com


----------



## TopCat (Apr 5, 2020)

shifting gears said:


> 🤔



What the fuck. So cats can get this. Can it pass it on?


----------



## TopCat (Apr 5, 2020)

Boris has it.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 5, 2020)

(((No. 10 cat)))


----------



## elbows (Apr 5, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Have we had this yet? If so, apologies. the Financial Times ffs. Strange times.
> 
> View attachment 205116
> 
> ...



No I dont think we have, thanks very much for bringing it to my attention!

I was wondering if I had gotten a bit carried away with my vague predictions about how old friends not seen since the 'death of the post-war consensus' were back and likely to be part of a new post-pandemic consensus. Or about big government, tax and spend suddenly being fashionable again. But if the FT are going on about such things in their own way then I probably didnt get too carried away after all.


----------



## zahir (Apr 6, 2020)

Faroe Islands

Sunday


Today


----------



## Thora (Apr 6, 2020)

Spoke to a friend of mine yesterday who has just left her flat in Berlin and gone to her summer home with her family in Sweden   I did suggest that is wasn't a great idea...  She says she felt bad at first but once they got to Sweden the cafes were full of people and you could still go to Ikea so now she's not bothered.  What's going on in Sweden?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 6, 2020)

Thora said:


> Spoke to a friend of mine yesterday who has just left her flat in Berlin and gone to her summer home with her family in Sweden   I did suggest that is wasn't a great idea...  She says she felt bad at first but once they got to Sweden the cafes were full of people and you could still go to Ikea so now she's not bothered.  What's going on in Sweden?



There's a specific thread on Sweden, which is worth following.









						Sweden and coronavirus
					

That is true, but they have achieved what they have achieved without a lockdown / have tested some 270,000 people, at 20,000 a day. I am just trying to see what Germany have done right now, at first glance their health service does seem more prepared and better resourced than many other EU...




					www.urban75.net


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 6, 2020)

Thora said:


> Spoke to a friend of mine yesterday who has just left her flat in Berlin and gone to her summer home with her family in Sweden   I did suggest that is wasn't a great idea...  She says she felt bad at first but once they got to Sweden the cafes were full of people and you could still go to Ikea so now she's not bothered.  What's going on in Sweden?




That is about to change.








						Sweden prepares for possible tighter coronavirus measures as deaths rise
					

Country has taken soft approach and its death rate is higher than its Nordic neighbours’




					www.google.com
				



Sweden’s government is drawing up new legislation to allow it to take “extraordinary steps” to combat Covid-19, local media have reported, amid concern that its relatively soft approach may be leading to a higher death rate than in other Nordic countries.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 6, 2020)

(COVID-19) confirmed, recovered, and test cases in South Korea as of April 6, 2020


> As of April 6, 2020, South Korea confirmed 10,284 cases of infection including 186 deaths after the first case of coronavirus in the country on January 20. As of the same date, 6,598 patients were released from quarantine after making a full recovery from the virus. In total, over 466 thousand people have been tested until now.


from 06/04/2020 South Korea: coronavirus infections, recoveries, and test cases 2020 | Statista

Impressive is that 466,000 people have been tested.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 6, 2020)

North Korea claims to be 'totally free' of virus


> North Korea's claim that "not a single person" in the country has been infected with the coronavirus is facing growing scepticism.
> 
> It has credited strict containment measures and the shutting down of its borders for this success.
> 
> ...



from 03/04/2020 Scepticism over N Korea's claim to be virus free


----------



## weltweit (Apr 6, 2020)

South Korea's return to normal interrupted by uptick in coronavirus cases


> South Korea has been held up as a paragon for containing the coronavirus, lauded by the world for  flattening its curve, but it is now bracing for a possible second wave.
> ..
> Despite methods like early testing and digital tracing, South Korea is bracing for a second wave of infection. The government recently pushed back the new school year. Despite efforts to protect children from being infected with the coronavirus
> ..





> The first wave of the coronavirus struck South Korea in mid-February after a "superspreader" from the Shincheonji Church in Daegu, a major city southeast of Seoul, infected worshippers during a service — a single case that infected more than 6,000 people.
> ..
> With the slight upticks, it's clear that South Korea hasn't fully contained the virus yet. But local clusters aren't the only problem.
> 
> South Korea is simultaneously coping with an influx of travelers from Europe and the U.S., which has resulted in more than 518 imported cases.


from 05/04/2020 South Korea's return to normal interrupted by uptick in coronavirus cases


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 6, 2020)

weltweit said:


> South Korea's return to normal interrupted by uptick in coronavirus cases
> 
> from 05/04/2020 South Korea's return to normal interrupted by uptick in coronavirus cases


Longer term, I think the last point there is pertinent for all of us. The same is happening in China - most new cases now are people coming from abroad. There is going to be a hell of a lot of twitchiness about international travel for a long time, I think.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 6, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Longer term, I think the last point there is pertinent for all of us. The same is happening in China - most new cases now are people coming from abroad. There is going to be a hell of a lot of twitchiness about international travel for a long time, I think.


Yes, I agree, and not just international travel - within the UK people are finding they can manage without face to face meetings, this feeling could persist as we come out of this crisis.


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 6, 2020)

Doctors are sending out ‘do-not-resuscitate’ forms telling people like my disabled daughter to sign them, I find that chilling
					

I get that Covid-19 means difficult medical decisions have to be made about who gets treatment and who doesn’t. But telling the disabled and already sick to sign away their rights in advance is asking them to volunteer for death.




					www.rt.com
				




Is this real? 
DNR letters being sent to disabled people to sign in case they get ill with c19.


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Apr 6, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> Doctors are sending out ‘do-not-resuscitate’ forms telling people like my disabled daughter to sign them, I find that chilling
> 
> 
> I get that Covid-19 means difficult medical decisions have to be made about who gets treatment and who doesn’t. But telling the disabled and already sick to sign away their rights in advance is asking them to volunteer for death.
> ...



I wouldn’t take rt as a credible source, but


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 6, 2020)

Ecuador city runs out of coffins amid COVID-19 crisis 😭😭😭😭😭😭


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 6, 2020)

Mr.Bishie said:


> I wouldn’t take rt as a credible source, but



Did a search and there are more reports. It's pretty terrifying.  









						GP surgery tells severely ill patients that if they get coronavirus attempts will not be made to save them
					

Patients with severe illnesses told to complete ‘do not resuscitate’ forms so that ‘scarce ambulance resources can be targeted to the young and fit who have a greater chance of surviving the infection’




					www.google.com


----------



## zahir (Apr 6, 2020)

Barbados









						Ventilators destined for Barbados seized by U.S. - Barbados Today
					

The seizure of 20 ventilators destined for Barbados appears to have thrust the Mia Mottley administration into a growing global battle for critical supplies to fight the outbreak of COVID-19. But Minister of Health and Wellness, Lieutenant Col Jeffrey Bostic on Sunday morning assured there is no...



					barbadostoday.bb


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 6, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Ecuador city runs out of coffins amid COVID-19 crisis 😭😭😭😭😭😭



That's weird, because Ecuador has only reported 180 deaths so far.


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 6, 2020)

It's a huge underestimate


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 6, 2020)




----------



## weltweit (Apr 6, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> ..
> Is this real?
> DNR letters being sent to disabled people to sign in case they get ill with c19.


There was a case reported last week of a Welsh GP practice sending out DNR forms and advice to use them to its local patients, as you might expect there was quite a reaction. I think I posted about it in the UK thread.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 6, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> Did a search and there are more reports. It's pretty terrifying.
> 
> 
> 
> ...





> The letter stated that people with “significant life-limiting illnesses”, such as incurable cancer, neurological conditions such as motor neurone disease and chronic untreatable heart and lung conditions, were “unlikely to be offered hospital admission should they become unwell and certainly will not be offered a ventilator bed”.



That's been known policy for some weeks now, and is the same in many countries, it's both harsh & logical.


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 6, 2020)

Subscribe to read | Financial Times cupid_stunt


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 6, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> That's weird, because Ecuador has only reported 180 deaths so far.



That's because this is what a health service looks like when it's overwhelmed. Over 300 bodies were collected from private homes in the last week of March alone in Guayaquil. Let alone tests not being done, bodies are being left in the streets.

I love Ecuador and this is massively depressing to me. It's not a cover-up. They just can't cope.









						Bodies are being left in the streets in an overwhelmed Ecuadorian city
					

The streets of Ecuador's western city of Guayaquil are deserted, with few residents in sight -- and a few dead, as bodies are being left in the streets of this overwhelmed place.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## 2hats (Apr 6, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> That's weird, because Ecuador has only reported 180 deaths so far.


To be fair, all countries official figures are underestimating case numbers and fatalities by margins between what might be described as inaccurate to huge.

The daily figures in the UK (for example), released on the day, are not accurate. One has to wait several days for them to backfill as data dribbles through various systems. Even then there are errors, misclassifications and gaps in the data. Cases is closely related to degree of testing (which is low to poor in most countries). Now consider less well organised healthcare reporting systems and political obfuscation.

It's a fairly straightforward exercise to extrapolate from the bounds of suspected CFR to realise that daily case figures don't add up (the same thought experiment suggests the Oxford model is wide of the mark whilst the LSHTM/IC/Cambridge ones are more reasonable).


----------



## elbows (Apr 6, 2020)

2hats said:


> The daily figures in the UK (for example), released on the day, are not accurate. One has to wait several days for them to backfill as data dribbles through various systems. Even then there are errors, misclassifications and gaps in the data. Cases is closely related to degree of testing (which is low to poor in most countries). Now consider less well organised healthcare reporting systems and political obfuscation.



Yes, although in the case of England its even worse than that, some of the deaths in the daily figures so far actually happened weeks earlier, and its only hospital deaths. The ONS data should have far less gaps, eventually, but it lags so far behind that I will only get a better picture many weeks later.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 6, 2020)

elbows said:


> Yes, although in the case of England its even worse than that, some of the deaths in the daily figures so far actually happened weeks earlier, and its only hospital deaths. The ONS data should have far less gaps, eventually, but it lags so far behind that I will only get a better picture many weeks later.


The daily binning of the public numbers isn't accurate, and never will be. The closest to accurate one can get are hospital episodes data (which, obviously, are not publicly available).


----------



## elbows (Apr 6, 2020)

2hats said:


> The daily binning of the public numbers isn't accurate, and never will be. The closest to accurate one can get are hospital episodes data (which, obviously, are not publicly available).



Yeah. I've started using the hospitalisation figures from the daily number 10 briefings to improve my sense of the picture and the daily evolution.

The ones titles 'Slides and datasets to accompany coronavirus press conference' here Search


----------



## elbows (Apr 6, 2020)

> Spanish officials say they plan to widen coronavirus testing to include those without symptoms.
> 
> "We are preparing ourselves for de-escalation for which it is important to know who is contaminated to be able to gradually lift Spanish citizens' lockdown," Foreign Minister Arancha Gonzalez was quoted by Reuters as telling television station Antena 3.











						Coronavirus: Spanish deaths fall for fourth consecutive day
					

Many hope the slowing death rate means lockdown measures, imposed weeks ago, are having an impact.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Apr 6, 2020)

A constant theme of mine is to keep an eye on countries that are touted as having avoided lockdowns, not had it too bad so far, etc, for signs that they too are having to increase measures.

Japan is the latest:









						Abe to declare state of emergency for Tokyo, 6 prefectures
					

Japan is to impose a state of emergency in Tokyo and six other prefectures from Wednesday to try to stop the coronavirus, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Monday night. The state of emergency, which will be officially declared on Tuesday, applies to Tokyo, Kanagawa, Chiba, Saitama, Osaka, Hyogo...




					japantoday.com


----------



## elbows (Apr 6, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> I’ll let you know if I hear Amazon are delivering these kits any time soon.



They have to find one that is actually reliable first, and none of the news has been promising on that front so far.









						Coronavirus 'game changer' testing kits could be unreliable, UK scientists say
					

Concern continues over whether government’s virus pledges stand up to scrutiny




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 6, 2020)

elbows said:


> A constant theme of mine is to keep an eye on countries that are touted as having avoided lockdowns, not had it too bad so far, etc, for signs that they too are having to increase measures.
> 
> Japan is the latest:
> 
> ...



Sweden as well.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 6, 2020)

elbows said:


> They have to find one that is actually reliable first, and none of the news has been promising on that front so far.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Good point - what are the US using as fwiu they seem to work accurately and only take 14mins to provide a result?


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 6, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Longer term, I think the last point there is pertinent for all of us. The same is happening in China - most new cases now are people coming from abroad. There is going to be a hell of a lot of twitchiness about international travel for a long time, I think.



South Korea now has a proper 14 day quarantine upon entry to the country, with non-residents having to do this in a facility. I don't know about Korea, but China's 14 day quarantine involves three coronavirus tests, on top of one they give you upon arrival at the airport. I hope SK is doing similar. I know that Hong Kong and Vietnam also quarantine those arriving from abroad now too. Obviously, those cases which get picked up in quarantine will be recorded as new cases in that country, although classed as imported rather than community transmissions, but I'm hopeful they won't contribute to onward transmission in these countries.


----------



## Anju (Apr 6, 2020)

Good news from Spain and a tacit acknowledgment that we are in for the long haul.
Spanish Government Aims to Roll Out Basic Income ‘Soon’


----------



## elbows (Apr 6, 2020)

Anju said:


> Good news from Spain and a tacit acknowledgment that we are in for the long haul.
> Spanish Government Aims to Roll Out Basic Income ‘Soon’



I hope their intentions become part of a broader international post-pandemic consensus!



> But the government’s broader ambition is that basic income becomes an instrument “that stays forever, that becomes a structural instrument, a permanent instrument,” she said.


----------



## Anju (Apr 6, 2020)

elbows said:


> I hope their intentions become part of a broader international post-pandemic consensus!


Yes, I hope the same but keep thinking I'm being naively optimistic.


----------



## elbows (Apr 6, 2020)

Anju said:


> Yes, I hope the same but keep thinking I'm being naively optimistic.



Well we've had over 40 years of cynicism so if there was ever a time for optimism, I'd suggest this is it.

I'd say that big government, tax and spend is inevitable no matter how much those who loved the neoliberal era will blow a gasket over it. But the rest is up to us, its a promising foundation and a whole bunch of myths and taboos and sense of what is actual possible exploded in a few months.


----------



## xes (Apr 6, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> That's weird, because Ecuador has only reported 180 deaths so far.


There was probably close to 180 bodies in 1 of the videos from Ecuador, let alone the other videos of bodies being burnt in the streets and massive convoys of vehicles queuing up to deposit their loved ones at the crematorium.

(I posted them the other day)


----------



## xes (Apr 6, 2020)

Video contains many bodies, a warning for those not wanting to see it. 



get body counting!


----------



## elbows (Apr 6, 2020)

Maybe Austria will be one to watch for those seeking clues about how the lockdowns will be relaxed, and how quickly it can happen in countries that look like they might be turning the corner. Or we will get to see their plans stall if the data goes in the wrong direction.









						Coronavirus: Why you now have to wear a mask in Austrian shops
					

It is a debate being had across the world, and now Austria and its neighbours have decided to act.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> In Austria it is now compulsory to wear basic masks in supermarkets and other food and drug stores.
> 
> The idea appears to be gaining support across Europe, although there is uncertainty about how useful the measure will be.



And from BBC live updates page at 15:49:



			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52178501
		




> Austria has set out plans to ease restrictions in place to curb the spread of the coronavirus. It is one of the first countries outside of Asia to do so.
> 
> Under the scheme, some shops will be able to reopen as early as next week but restaurants and bars will have to wait until May and it won't be until the end of June that large-scale public events, such as football matches, can take place.
> 
> ...



And 



> The lockdown has brought the daily increase in infections to single digits in percentage terms and the number of people in hospital has stabilised. But conservative Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said only last week that intensive-care capacity could be exceeded as early as mid-April.
> 
> “There will be a step-by-step reopening,” Kurz told a news conference, adding that the fact Austria had acted faster than other countries meant it was now in a position to start reopening shops sooner. It would act cautiously, possibly delaying moves if there is any uptick in infections.
> 
> If all goes well, it will reopen non-essential shops of less than 400 square metres and DIY shops on April 14, followed by all shops, malls and hairdressers on May 1, he said. Face masks will have to be worn in shops reopening and on public transport.











						Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
					






					uk.reuters.com


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 6, 2020)

Encouraging signs that the first countries are reaching their peaks now, as defined by number of active cases. Austria has done extremely well to do so with so few dead, and total active cases have been falling there for a few days now, following big previous falls in new cases, so hopefully that will be sustained.

Switzerland may be the first more seriously affected country to be reaching its peak. Active cases now falling, and encouraging that the overall hospital occupancy is also peaking, and that on the back of encouraging new cases figures from a system that has been testing heavily - more tests per capita than any large-ish country other than Norway. Also very encouraging that the worst-affected canton, Ticino (the Italian bit of Switzerland), has seen hospitalised cases dropping for a week now. 

Stats broken down by canton here.

Corona Fälle in der Schweiz


----------



## weltweit (Apr 6, 2020)

Wow a mountain of data there


----------



## bellaozzydog (Apr 6, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Australia has about 5000 confirmed cases and 25 deaths. They have also tested more per capita than anywhere else ( sorry don't have a link atm)
> 
> The government have found the magic money forrest! Absolute massive hand outs and waivers for everyone/thing.
> 
> ...



they’re kind of reeling from the last kicking for their management of the bush fires


----------



## Supine (Apr 6, 2020)

Interesting thread on how the virus works


----------



## little_legs (Apr 6, 2020)




----------



## little_legs (Apr 6, 2020)

Anju said:


> Good news from Spain and a tacit acknowledgment that we are in for the long haul.
> Spanish Government Aims to Roll Out Basic Income ‘Soon’





elbows said:


> I hope their intentions become part of a broader international post-pandemic consensus!


It's about time the government here considers introducing UBI, no one would have to worry about _restarting_ the economy. And people wouldn't have to live on a brink of a mental breakdown worrying if they'll be able to afford basics each month.

Once again, the FT appears to be nudging policy makers to change course:


----------



## Anju (Apr 6, 2020)

little_legs said:


> It's about time the government here considers introducing UBI, no one would have to worry about _restarting_ the economy. And people wouldn't have to live on a brink of a mental breakdown worrying if they'll be able to afford basics each month.
> 
> Once again, the FT appears to be nudging policy makers to change course:




It's just a better way of doing quantitative easing isn't it, but as a form of redistribution of tax revenue not printing new money.  I don't know how accurate that is but it's time to try something new and UBI seems the best way to start.


----------



## Callie (Apr 6, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Good point - what are the US using as fwiu they seem to work accurately and only take 14mins to provide a result?


link?

I doubt that many of the rapid kits people could use at home will have a great level of accuracy, when you are looking at pin prick blood tests performed by non lab staff in a home environment you are going to lose some of the effectiveness. These immunoassay type tests (little cards that produce lines for positive/control reactions) are never going to be great - what you gain in convenience you lose in accuracy.


----------



## TopCat (Apr 6, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> That's been known policy for some weeks now, and is the same in many countries, it's both harsh & logical.


Yeah I have been brutally aware of this hence the jokes about learning to intubate oneself. 
Its terrible for the old though. Residents of care and nursing homes are just going to get palliative care at best where they are and no post mortem for the vast majority.


----------



## campanula (Apr 6, 2020)

TopCat said:


> Residents of care and nursing homes are just going to get palliative care at best where they are and no post mortem for the vast majority.


 Worse that that, Topcat. Palliative care is going to be massively hindered because of lack of some meds - morphine and diamorphine  for example, plus oxygen supplies also looking problematic. The criminal negligence of the Tory govt. must not be diminished.


----------



## elbows (Apr 6, 2020)

With the news about the likes of Austria starting to consider what some relaxations might consist of, eg reopening certain things slowly and making face masks compulsory when shopping, I started to wonder if my comment about how I'd be astonished if Switzerland relaxed anything as early as April 19th was already starting to sound a bit silly.

But it seems the data and official comments about them still point in a direction that can sustain my original feeling.



			https://www.thelocal.ch/20200406/swiss-health-minister-confinement-measures-may-not-be-eased-on-april-20th
		




> The Federal Council declared a state of emergency on March 16th, closing all shops, restaurants, bars, and entertainment and leisure facilities — with the exception of grocery stores and pharmacies— until April 19th.
> 
> However, Health Minister Alain Berset told SonntagsZeitung on Sunday that “for the moment, it seems illusory to think we will be able to relax the measures on April 20th".
> 
> "It is only when the number of infected people and hospital admissions clearly decreases that we can consider relaxing the rules," he added.





> Both Berset and Daniel Koch, the head of infectious diseases unit at the Federal Office of Public Health, said that the peak of the infections has not yet been reached.



Mind you, I really should try to stick to taking things one week at a time at the moment. Lots of things can happen in 2 weeks, and unlike earlier in the outbreak I dont have knowledge in advance about the orthodox establishment approach and what they will do next, because the rule book had to be chucked out.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 7, 2020)

Coronavirus wreaks havoc in African American neighbourhoods


> Stark statistics from Chicago health officials have underscored the heavy toll of coronavirus on black Americans.
> 
> Black Chicagoans account for half of all coronavirus cases in the city and more than 70% of deaths, despite making up 30% of the population.





> Other cities with large black populations, including Detroit, Milwaukee, New Orleans and New York, have become coronavirus hotspots.
> ..
> As of 5 April, 1,824 out of Chicago's 4,680 confirmed Covid-19 cases were black residents, said city officials on Monday.





> That compared with 847 white, 478 Hispanic and 126 Asian Chicagoans.
> 
> Chicago has seen a total of 98 deaths as of Sunday, with 72% of them black residents.
> ..
> ...





> African Americans made up almost half of Milwaukee Country's nearly 1,000 cases as of last Friday and 81% of its 27 deaths, despite black people accounting for 26% of the population there, according to a study by ProPublica.
> 
> Some 40% of Louisiana's coronavirus deaths have occurred in the New Orleans area, where the majority of residents are black.
> ..





> Mayor Lightfoot said diabetes, heart disease and respiratory illness were "really prevalent" in black communities.
> ..
> Dr Cameron Webb, an African-American physician who is running for Congress in the US state of Virginia, told BBC News that US racial and economic disparities were being amplified by the pandemic.


from 07/04/2020 Coronavirus wreaks havoc in US black communities


----------



## weltweit (Apr 7, 2020)

China reports no new coronavirus deaths, as New York figures offer cautious hope


> China on Tuesday reported no new coronavirus deaths the previous day for the first time since January, offering hope for other nations still grappling with the devastating pandemic.
> ..
> Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) said Monday that the daily _(NY)_ death toll fell under 600 for two days in a row, suggesting a “possible flattening of the curve," though the hospital system remains overwhelmed.


from 07/04/2020 https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/04/07/coronavirus-latest-news/

This is a Washington Post summary page, it covers many items, worth a read.


----------



## lefteri (Apr 7, 2020)

Supine said:


> Interesting thread on how the virus works




that’s fascinating, thanks


----------



## teqniq (Apr 7, 2020)




----------



## The39thStep (Apr 7, 2020)

Interesting bit in one of the local Alagarve newspapers about expats




> A group created by foreign residents in the Algarve has managed to raise over €400,000 in the space of just over a week to fight coronavirus in the region.





> The Helping Algarve movement has been raising funds for the Faro, Portimão and Lagos hospital group, and is today delivering a portable x-ray machine to Faro Hospital with more medical supplies set to be channelled through in the coming days.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 7, 2020)

Why Dutch lockdown may be a high-risk strategy


> The Netherlands has tried to adopt an "intelligent lockdown", but the infection is spreading rapidly and it has one of the world's highest mortality rates from the pandemic.
> ..
> The Dutch are among the few who began by openly embracing the contentious idea of group or herd immunity. It's an approach characterised by one Dutch global health expert as cold and calculated.
> ..





> My local florist, ironmonger, delicatessen, bakery and toy store are still serving customers. Posters on the door and sticky tape on the floor encourage people to give each other space. Staff at the tills wear surgical gloves.
> 
> Only those businesses that require touching, like hairdressers, beauticians and red light brothels, have been forced to cease trading.
> ..





> "We think we're cool-headed," explained Dr Louise van Schaik of the Clingendael Institute of International Relations. "We don't want to overreact, to lock up everybody in their houses. And it's easier to keep the generations apart here, because grandpa and grandma don't live at home with their children."
> ..
> When the UK's chief scientific adviser revealed a plan to develop a broad immunity across the population, within days researchers revealed it could claim a quarter of a million lives, and the UK changed course.
> ..





> In a televised speech to the nation on 16 March, Mr Rutte outlined his approach.
> 
> "We can delay the spread of the virus and at the same time build up population immunity in a controlled manner," he said.





> The bigger the group that acquires immunity, the smaller the chance that the virus can make the leap to vulnerable older people or people with underlying health issues
> Mark Rutte
> Dutch Prime Minister, 16 March 2020


from 05/04/2020 Why Dutch lockdown may be a high-risk strategy

I am trying to work out if they cling to herd immunity or have like the UK abandoned it. . .


----------



## phillm (Apr 7, 2020)

This is doing the rounds on Facebook it looks real enough no idea if what he is saying is true or not which is that ventilators are killing more people than they save.


----------



## editor (Apr 7, 2020)

How's that God working out for you, you fucking bigoted piece of shit? 



> *Israel Health Minister Who Called COVID-19 ‘Divine Punishment’ Tests Positive For Virus*
> Israel Health Minister Who Called COVID-19  'Divine Punishment'Tests Positive For Virus
> 
> Gay: Israel Health Minister Yaakov Litzman, who previously claimed that the coronavirus was “divine punishment against homosexuality,” has tested positive for the virus.
> ...


----------



## editor (Apr 7, 2020)

Lordy 



> China has demanded an explanation from Brazil after the far-right government’s education minister linked the coronavirus pandemic to Beijing’s “plan for world domination”, in a tweet imitating a Chinese accent.
> 
> In the latest incident to strain ties between the two nations, minister Abraham Weintraub insinuated China was behind the global health crisis.
> 
> ...











						China outraged after Brazil minister suggests Covid-19 is part of 'plan for world domination'
					

Beijing demands explanation after ‘highly racist’ tweet by Abraham Weintraub suggests it is part of a geopolitical plan




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Anju (Apr 7, 2020)

editor said:


> How's that God working out for you, you fucking bigoted piece of shit?



I was just coming to post this. Thought it would be good for people who were wishing Johnson would die but now it's looking very possible have changed their minds. He seems like a legitimate target for any ill will people might need to direct somewhere.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Apr 7, 2020)

editor said:


> Israel Health Minister Yaakov Litzman, who previously claimed that the coronavirus was “divine punishment against homosexuality,” has tested positive for the virus.


That's a hell of a way to come out.


----------



## Concernedlocal (Apr 7, 2020)

First post in these types of things but am properly freaking out about this all. 

You think that Johnson will get priority on some of these drugs that keep getting spoken about in the media? Seems to be a few on test right now?


----------



## Concernedlocal (Apr 7, 2020)

Also can someone point me in the direction of unbiased news surrounding this situation? Where is best to look or has it previously been posted in here?


----------



## Anju (Apr 7, 2020)

Really concerned about the media coverage and social media posting relating to coronavirus in  Africa.

There was the story about the 2 French doctors discussing the possibility of vaccine trials in Africa. It wasn't expressed well and they probably shouldn't have mentioned HIV trials but it was clear they were talking about running the same trial as was being done in Europe. A bit reading on the trial they were referring to  also makes it clear that the same trial is being conducted in Australia and that it is the BCG TB vaccine, so not exactly dangerous given decades of use worldwide.

It's being reported on as if it's a trial of a new untested vaccine only taking place in Africa. Even the WHO are taking that line. 

I've looked at some Twitter stuff from Africa and seen posts on Facebook rejecting the possibility of vaccine trials there because of previous drug trials, some legitimate cases but also all the anti Bill Gates depopulation bollocks.

Lots of misinformation now spreading. Black people aren't as susceptible to it, black tea will keep you safe, let's stick to traditional remedies. Lots of anti China bioweapon conspiracy stuff. The antivaxers have clearly been doing a lot of work there as well. 

There have already been attacks on coronavirus testing and treatment facilities in some countries. 

I fear that by the time the virus really takes hold there, assuming it will, the amount of misinformation will have turned opinion against treatment and vaccinations. 

I do understand the suspicion but the reporting seems massively irresponsible and the WHO statement makes me wonder wtf they are doing as it's lending legitimacy to all the conspiracy stuff and fueling a very dangerous fire.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 7, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> First post in these types of things but am properly freaking out about this all.
> 
> You think that Johnson will get priority on some of these drugs that keep getting spoken about in the media? Seems to be a few on test right now?



There are loads of people out there right looking into various possible options but there has to be processes in place to make sure that they work and even if they do they don't have any horrible side affects.  Unfortunately its just the way it is and Johnson can't do anything about it even if he was at his desk in No10 rather than ICU.


----------



## Concernedlocal (Apr 7, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> There are loads of people out there right looking into various possible options but there has to be processes in place to make sure that they work and even if they do they don't have any horrible side affects.  Unfortunately its just the way it is and Johnson can't do anything about it even if he was at his desk in No10 rather than ICU.



What is the difference between a new vaccine and some of these others they think will help? Shouldn't they focus on the ones already out there, they all keep getting spoken about by Trump and UK government so must have legs right?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 7, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> What is the difference between a new vaccine and some of these others they think will help? Shouldn't they focus on the ones already out there, they all keep getting spoken about by Trump and UK government so must have legs right?



There is no known vaccine that could help prevent it.

They are, however, testing certain drugs that could be useful in treating it.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 7, 2020)

Economic sanctions and Iran's capacity to respond to COVID-19


> Iran was one of the first countries outside China to have a rapid increase in the number of cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The country's capacity to respond to the virus is substantially impeded by unilateral economic sanctions re-imposed after the US Administration withdrew from the nuclear deal in May, 2018, and further US sanctions imposed as recently as March 18, 2020. As of March 31, 2020, the recorded number of people infected from COVID-19 in Iran was 41 495, with 2757 deaths, but these numbers are likely a substantial underestimation.





> ..
> The COVID-19 pandemic has occurred at a time of economic crisis in Iran, in which steep increases in medicine price have affected approximately 6 million patients with complex and chronic illnesses; the situation is almost certainly worse now. This group of individuals is at particularly high risk of infection and disease progression.
> As stated by the Director-General of WHO, “We're all in this together, and we can only save lives together.” He was clear that the pandemic caused by COVID-19, the spread of which is unaffected by national borders, can only be controlled by extraordinary co-operation between countries, putting political differences aside.


from 06/04/2020 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30083-9/fulltext


----------



## weltweit (Apr 7, 2020)

Japan declares state of emergency over coronavirus


> Japanese leader Shinzo Abe announces month of restrictions and unveils record stimulus package
> ..
> Abe told a televised news conference a recent sharp rise in Covid-19 cases in Tokyo and other urban areas had forced him to rethink Japan’s approach towards stemming the outbreak.
> ..
> “We are not at a stage where rapid nationwide spread is being observed, but some areas are under pressure, so





> we don’t have the luxury of time,” he said, adding that the rise in infections was straining the country’s health service.
> 
> “To relieve that pressure there will have to be a transformation in people’s behaviour,” he said. “Preventing an explosion in cases, saving people in serious conditions and protecting you and your loved ones depends on how we change our behaviour.”
> ..





> By Monday there were 1,116 confirmed infections in the metropolitan region of 14 million people. Nationwide, Japan has 3,906 confirmed cases, as well as a 712 from a cruise ship quarantined at Yokohama port near Tokyo, with 91 deaths.
> 
> While the figures are low compared to the US, China and parts of Europe, officials are concerned that Tokyo’s hospitals would be unable to cope with a surge in infections.


from 07/04/2020 Japan declares state of emergency over coronavirus


----------



## Concernedlocal (Apr 7, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> There is no known vaccine that could help prevent it.
> 
> They are, however, testing certain drugs that could be useful in treating it.



What are the existing drugs? I have seen some thrown around but keen to get some more info on them, have found a few sites but want to make sure they are legit.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 7, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> What are the existing drugs? I have seen some thrown around but keen to get some more info on them, have found a few sites but want to make sure they are legit.



I hope you are not thinking of buying drugs for this, online!

Take a look at this thread...









						Possible vaccines/treatment(s) for Coronavirus
					

A thread for hopefully positive news on the fight back against this coronavirus.  I remember Chris Whitty, England's  Chief Medical Officer, mentioning some exiting antiviral drugs could be effective in treatment of this coronavirus, and there are three particular ones that could be good...




					www.urban75.net


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 7, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> What are the existing drugs? I have seen some thrown around but keen to get some more info on them, have found a few sites but want to make sure they are legit.



As it stands there is no vaccine for Covid-19.  There are new vaccines in development but these will take many months and potentially over a year and more to actually become available.

There are a number of existing drugs which have been touted as possible treatments for Covid-19.   Currently none of them have proven to work.  Anyone or any company that is claiming to be able to supply any product which is either a proven vaccine or a proven treatment is making claims they cannot back up.  They are most likely to be thieves and con artists looking to financially gain from people's legitimate fear.

Unfortunately at this stage the best that can happen is we continue to isolate and keep up the crucial hand washing and general good practices.


----------



## LDC (Apr 7, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> What are the existing drugs? I have seen some thrown around but keen to get some more info on them, have found a few sites but want to make sure they are legit.



What info are you after and why? You're not going to be able to buy them, nor should you be able to. Legit? Hmmmm.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Apr 7, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> What are the existing drugs? I have seen some thrown around but keen to get some more info on them, have found a few sites but want to make sure they are legit.


I heard laxatives can flush it out of your system*

*May not actually be true. Actually it definitely isn't true.


----------



## Concernedlocal (Apr 7, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> I hope you are not thinking of buying drugs for this, online!
> 
> Take a look at this thread...
> 
> ...



Well "thinking" is the key word here... Just can't stand we are in this situation with literally no solution. How the hell can that even happen and nobody giving any sort of clear outcome


----------



## teqniq (Apr 7, 2020)

This may be of interest:









						Coronavirus Dashboard
					

Live coronavirus dashboard tracker. See data, maps, social media trends, and learn about prevention measures.




					ncov2019.live
				




from


----------



## weltweit (Apr 7, 2020)

TBF teqniq there is a mass of data on his site so kudos for that - but it isn't the easiest sites to use!!  

I would have taken the $8 million


----------



## miss direct (Apr 7, 2020)

Can anyone help me understand the figures coming out of Turkey? It's hard to get hold of any data or numbers, but the number of deaths per day seem suspicious (around 60-70 for the last week from what I can remember/work out). And government saying Eid (end of May) it should all be over.








						COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## LDC (Apr 7, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> Well "thinking" is the key word here... Just can't stand we are in this situation with literally no solution. How the hell can that even happen and nobody giving any sort of clear outcome



Oh fuck off.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Apr 7, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> Well "thinking" is the key word here... Just can't stand we are in this situation with literally no solution. How the hell can that even happen and nobody giving any sort of clear outcome


My sister was talking with the Coronavirus last night. Apparently it'll all be over by June.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 7, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> Well "thinking" is the key word here... Just can't stand we are in this situation with literally no solution. How the hell can that even happen and nobody giving any sort of clear outcome



We all get used to living in a world where 'there is a drug for that' or the 'this is the standard treatment'.  Unfortunately that's not always going to be the case.  This is new and there is currently no treatment for it.  Pandemics have happened throughout human history and will continue to do so.  We just happen to be in the midst of the storm at the moment and there is nothing we can do except follow guidelines and hope that's enough.


----------



## JimW (Apr 7, 2020)

Sorry if this has been posted, not following this thread, but perhaps a sign of the end times - after a bit of an Internet rabbit hole ended up at the Daily Express (archaeology story, honest) to find this: Coronavirus shock claim: Noam Chomsky reveals 'true culprit' behind COVID-19 crisis Approving long quotes of Chomsky blaming it all on capitalism.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 7, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> Also can someone point me in the direction of unbiased news surrounding this situation? Where is best to look or has it previously been posted in here?



We tend to search for elbows' posts  

who generally I think follows WHO guidelines.


----------



## elbows (Apr 7, 2020)

two sheds said:


> We tend to search for elbows' posts
> 
> who generally I think follows WHO guidelines.



lol! By the way, its been weeks since I've had time to observe what the WHO were saying, so I have no idea what I am missing on that front! If someone else could cast an occasional eye in the direction of the WHO, and report on anything of note, I for one would hugely appreciate it.


----------



## zahir (Apr 7, 2020)

Doctors’ protests in Greece.









						Police against doctors demanding more protection against coronavirus - Keep Talking Greece
					

Police squads in anti-riot gear were sent to Evaggelismos hospital in Athens to disperse a gathering




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 7, 2020)

People of Wuhan allowed to leave after lockdown


> The months-long lockdown in the city of Wuhan in China's Hubei province - where the coronavirus pandemic started - has been lifted.
> 
> Anyone who has a "green" code on a widely used smartphone health app is now allowed to leave, for the first time since 23 January.





> Train, road and rail connections have now been re-established.
> ..
> Last month, when Wuhan reported its first full week with no new infections, shopping malls were re-opened. Some people in "epidemic-free" residential compounds have also been allowed to leave their homes for two hours.





> From Wednesday, approved residents will be able to use public transport if they are also to provide a QR code for scanning. The code is unique for each person and links to their confirmed health status.
> ..
> But the government is under scrutiny about its response to the outbreak, and whether it is underreporting its figures.





> Hitting back at these claims, Chinese state media have published what they describe as a detailed timeline of its response and information sharing.


from 07/04/2020 China allows people out of city first hit by virus

Wuhan went into strong lockdown on 23/01/2020 and is emerging three and a bit months later. 

London is of a similar size to Wuhan, hasn't such an extensive lockdown, could London be in lockdown for three and a bit months?


----------



## xes (Apr 7, 2020)

More shocking hospital footage from Ecuador. Bodies piling up outside and in corridors. Just in case there are still people who think it's all blown out of proportion. This is what it could get like without social distancing.


----------



## zahir (Apr 7, 2020)

A longer report on the Faroe Islands.









						Coronavirus secrets of the Faroes
					

The Faroe Islands has managed to test nearly 10% of its population for coronavirus and no one has died from the disease so far. Its virus strategy was undoubtedly helped by its remote location but the main reason for the rapid response is a surprising one: the humble salmon.




					www.euractiv.com


----------



## zahir (Apr 7, 2020)

Mauro Ferrari, the president of the European Research Council, has resigned over the handling of the crisis.



			http://prod-upp-image-read.ft.com/65f5a27e-78dd-11ea-af44-daa3def9ae03
		



> My tenure as President of the European Research Council (ERC) has come to an end, as earlier today I tendered my resignation to President Ursula von der Leyen. My appointment was announced in May 2019, to take office on January 1, 2020. In the intervening 7 months I volunteered my time to the ERC, motivated by my enthusiasm for the great reputation of this world-leading funding agency, my commitment to the idealistic dream of a United Europe, and my belief in serving the needs of the world, through service to the best of science.
> Those idealistic motivations were crushed by a very different reality, in the brief three months since I took office. Disquieting early warning, signs gave way to the painfully icy, cold recognitions of a world entirely different from what I had envisioned. The Covid-19 pandemic shone a merciless light on how mistaken I had been: In time of emergencies people, and institutions, revert to their deepest nature and reveal their true character.





> I have been extremely disappointed by the European response to Covid-19, for what pertains to the complete absence of coordination of health care policies among member states, the recurrent opposition to cohesive financial support initiatives, the pervasive one-sided border closures, and the marginal scale of synergistic scientific initiatives.
> I am afraid that I have seen enough of both the governance of science, and the political operations at the European Union. In these three long months, I have indeed met many excellent and committed individuals, at different levels of the organization of the ERC and the EC. However, I have lost faith in the system itself.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 8, 2020)

phillm said:


> This is doing the rounds on Facebook it looks real enough no idea if what he is saying is true or not which is that ventilators are killing more people than they save.





Did you catch his name?

Dr Cameron...? ER and critical care doctor in New York City.... but no hospital named.

ETA

It’s from the New York Post.
I’ve found more. This is an interview with him.









						Do COVID-19 Vent Protocols Need a Second Look?
					

How what Cameron Kyle-Sidell, MD, saw in an NYC ICU prompted him to re-examine COVID-19 ventilator protocols



					www.medscape.com
				














						Doctors Puzzle Over COVID-19 Lung Problems
					

As they see more patients with COVID-19, doctors are noticing differences in their lungs that could mean all patients should not be treated alike.




					www.webmd.com
				







			https://www.esicm.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/684_author-proof.pdf
		












						Acetazolamide, Nifedipine and Phosphodiesterase Inhibitors: Rationale for Their Utilization as Adjunctive Countermeasures in the Treatment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

Effective treatments for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak are urgently needed. While anti-viral approaches and vaccines are being considered immediate countermeasures are unavailable. The aim of this article is to outline ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				













						COVID-19 Update April 5, 2020 - Emergency Medicine Cases
					

This blog post is based on Level C evidence - consensus and expert opinion. Examples of protocols, checklists and algorithms are for educational purposes and require modification for your particular needs as well as approval by your hospital before use in clinical practice. COVID-19 evolving...




					emergencymedicinecases.com
				














						COVID-19 Daily: Ventilator Protocols Questioned, Physician Rights
					

These are the coronavirus stories you need to know about today.



					www.medscape.com
				













						Is Protocol-Driven COVID-19 Ventilation Doing More Harm Than Good?
					

'This is a kind of disease in which you don't have to follow the protocol — you have to follow the physiology. Unfortunately many doctors...cannot think outside the protocol,' said Dr. Luciano Gattinoni.



					www.medscape.com
				












						EMCrit Wee - Stop Kneejerk Intubation with the EMCrit Crew
					

not NC at 6lpm then tube




					emcrit.org
				







I’m just storing these links here so I can come back to them. It’s an interesting and potentially important tangent : some patients seem to be exhibiting something that looks less like pneumonia and more like high-altitude pulmonary oedema (HAPE... because they’re spelling oedema the American way).


kropotkin Edie Rebelda kalidarkone kebabking IC3D wiskey 
Does any of this chime with what you’ve been seeing /hearing about?


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 8, 2020)

Is protocol-driven COVID-19 respiratory therapy doing more harm than good? - The Hospitalist
					

“This is a kind of disease in which you don’t have to follow the protocol – you have to follow the physiology. Unfortunately, many, many doctors around the world cannot think outside the protocol,” said Dr. Luciano Gattinoni.




					www.the-hospitalist.org
				








> Anecdotal evidence has increasingly demonstrated that this proposed physiological approach is associated with much lower mortality rates among COVID-19 patients, he said.
> 
> While not willing to name the hospitals at this time, he said that one center in Europe has had a 0% mortality rate among COVID-19 patients in the ICU when using this approach, compared with a 60% mortality rate at a nearby hospital using a protocol-driven approach.
> 
> ...


----------



## gentlegreen (Apr 8, 2020)

Evolutionary biology perspective.

I was half asleep when I listened to this - seem to remember lots about bats, sickle cell anaemia and altitude adjusted populations...malaria drug connection...(though I may be conflating it with a doc about Wim Hof)... Also how a relatively massive RNA virus gets cells' full attention for replication...

Suggestion in as yet not peer-reviewed Korean paper about SARS-2 directly affecting haemoglobin...

No doubt Weinstein is a bit iffy politically, but here it is ... About 14 mins in...


----------



## Edie (Apr 8, 2020)

SheilaNaGig To be honest I don’t really understand what he’s saying. Afaik it’s a virus (a Coronavirus), that causes a pneumonia (inflammation or infection of lower airways, seen on a radiograph), that in a subset of patients with overwhelming inflammation can lead to Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS- which is a syndrome, basically a constellation of symptoms that are present- including inflammatory infiltrate or fluid in the lungs leading to respiratory distress).

What’s he disagreeing with? Maybe I don’t understand.

Pulmonary oedema just means fluid in the lungs, it’s a sign not a diagnosis, can be caused by different pathology,: heart failure or ARDS or altitude.


----------



## Numbers (Apr 8, 2020)

two sheds said:


> We tend to search for elbows' posts
> 
> who generally I think follows WHO guidelines.


WHO follow elbows guidelines.


----------



## LDC (Apr 8, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Did you catch his name?
> 
> Dr Cameron...? ER and critical care doctor in New York City.... but no hospital named.
> 
> ...



I'd be _really _careful about any Youtube videos or FB posts making claims about this kind of thing, even if they sound authoritative and come from figures that are involved and might have a sensible and related background. Doctors etc can also be susceptible to random nonsense, conspiracies, and poor evidence too, especially if they're right in the middle of something that's really difficult, chaotic, and emotionally hard.


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 8, 2020)

little_legs said:


> It's about time the government here considers introducing UBI, no one would have to worry about _restarting_ the economy. And people wouldn't have to live on a brink of a mental breakdown worrying if they'll be able to afford basics each month.
> 
> Once again, the FT appears to be nudging policy makers to change course:




I go along with a lot of this but I am not comfortable with the comment about the elderly
"Redistribution will again be on the agenda. The priveledges of the *elderly* and wealthy in question.."
Are they going to euthenise  the elderly because they have reached old age?


----------



## Yorkshirelad (Apr 8, 2020)

A new way of life is about to unfold get ready. This is a test... The next one will make you think about it, if you haven't already. Think about it!


----------



## magneze (Apr 8, 2020)




----------



## krtek a houby (Apr 8, 2020)

Yorkshirelad said:


> A new way of life is about to unfold get ready. This is a test... The next one will make you think about it, if you haven't already. Think about it!



I hate tests


----------



## Yorkshirelad (Apr 8, 2020)

krtek a houby said:


> I hate tests


This is not a test.


----------



## Yorkshirelad (Apr 8, 2020)

Yorkshirelad said:


> This is not a test.


It really does not matter what you like. 😂


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 8, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I'd be _really _careful about any Youtube videos or FB posts making claims about this kind of thing, even if they sound authoritative and come from figures that are involved and might have a sensible and related background. Doctors etc can also be susceptible to random nonsense, conspiracies, and poor evidence too, especially if they're right in the middle of something that's really difficult, chaotic, and emotionally hard.





I am being careful, that’s why I’m asking if you guys have any thoughts about it. 

One of the things I’m  bit  about it how one doctor in NY can be finding something “new” when so many other doctors have had weeks of close up experience. Is he just desperately trying to invent a new approach out of his own desperation?

But I’m als looking at that initial report from the Italian doctor too. 

All the rest use the NY doctor and the Italian doctor as their only source. So it’s all highly speculative.

But as I’ve said elsewhere, with a pandemic the sample size is necessarily enormous so trends can be spotted anecdotally (like the anosmia, which wasn’t reported by the Chinese so far as I’m aware). And the sheer force of speed and volume of cases might obstruct critical thinking...?

But yes, please trust that I’m asbolutely not taking this at face value,


----------



## bimble (Apr 8, 2020)

These are interesting - Big bunch of tables that are trying to measure behaviour change (methods people are using to try to protect themselves basiacally) in countries around the world.









						YouGov international COVID-19 tracker | YouGov
					

Latest YouGov coronavirus trackers




					yougov.co.uk


----------



## LDC (Apr 8, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I am being careful, that’s why I’m asking if you guys have any thoughts about it.
> 
> One of the things I’m  bit  about it how one doctor in NY can be finding something “new” when so many other doctors have had weeks of close up experience. Is he just desperately trying to invent a new approach out of his own desperation?
> 
> ...



Yeah was more aimed at others.


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 8, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> Well "thinking" is the key word here... Just can't stand we are in this situation with literally no solution. How the hell can that even happen and nobody giving any sort of clear outcome



Avoiding catching the virus is solution number 1. 
Stopping the spread will hopefully lead to the virus dying away for the near future. Doesnt mean it wont come back but hopefully by then pharmaceutical labs might have a vaccine.
As for pandemics happening? They happen. People have been warning about them for donkeys years. The unacceptable part is that in the past 15 years of capitalism and money grabbing big pharmaceutical companies and labs have spent more time making face creams than time on for example, SARS vaccines. Hospitals have been left to rot over the past 20 years so they're not prepared either. 
This should make you think.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 8, 2020)

Edie said:


> SheilaNaGig To be honest I don’t really understand what he’s saying. Afaik it’s a virus (a Coronavirus), that causes a pneumonia (inflammation or infection of lower airways, seen on a radiograph), that in a subset of patients with overwhelming inflammation can lead to Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS- which is a syndrome, basically a constellation of symptoms that are present- including inflammatory infiltrate or fluid in the lungs leading to respiratory distress).
> 
> What’s he disagreeing with? Maybe I don’t understand.
> 
> Pulmonary oedema just means fluid in the lungs, it’s a sign not a diagnosis, can be caused by different pathology,: heart failure or ARDS or altitude.




Thank you for taking the time to reply,

He’s not contradicting anything. He was saying yes, it’s a virus / viral pneumonia as sequelae in some Px. But other Px are presenting with hypoxia but no dyspnea. He’s seeing low blood o2 and the ground glass lungs , but no loss of volume in the lungs. He says he doesnt understand that. He’s saying on presentation some Px are showing Sx that might suggest altitude sickness : confusion, lethargy etc. No doubt those would also accompany fever + malaise assoc. w/ acute URTI.


It might all be the desperate casting about for something, anything, that could give him a chunk of hope for Tx. But an Italian front line doctor mentions something similar and so I was just wondering if anyone on our front line might have seen/heard similar thoughts.

As I said to LynnDoyleCooper , I’m not jumping on this with anything approaching belief, but it’s made me curious.


The article I linked and quoted in the post immediately following the one you replied to sums up his thoughts.


----------



## LDC (Apr 8, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Thank you for taking the time to reply,
> 
> He’s not contradicting anything. He was saying yes, it’s a virus / viral pneumonia as sequelae in some Px. But other Px are presenting with hypoxia but no dyspnea. He’s seeing low blood o2 and the ground glass lungs , but no loss of volume in the lungs. He says he doesnt understand that. He’s saying on presentation some Px are showing Sx that might suggest altitude sickness : confusion, lethargy etc. No doubt those would also accompany fever + malaise assoc. w/ acute URTI.
> 
> ...



Kind of related I posted something on the NHS healthcare workers thread that's worth a read I think.


----------



## Edie (Apr 8, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Thank you for taking the time to reply,
> 
> He’s not contradicting anything. He was saying yes, it’s a virus / viral pneumonia as sequelae in some Px. But other Px are presenting with hypoxia but no dyspnea. He’s seeing low blood o2 and the grounds glass lungs , but no loss of volume in the lungs. He says he doesnt understand that. He’s saying on presentation some Px are showing Sx that might suggest altitude sickness : confusion, lethargy etc. No doubt those would also accompany fever + malaise assoc. w/ acute URTI.
> 
> ...


It’s all a bit non-sense tbh mate. Like, I’m sure you probably can be hypoxic (not enough oxygen reaching the tissues) without being dyspnoic (which is just the medical term for short of breath or increased respiratory rate). For example, in exhausted patients in terminal phase. But most hypoxic patients will be short of breath. And we know that people with covid are hypoxic and short of breath.

Ground glass just refers to the appearance on CT.

Im still not sure what point he’s making?


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 8, 2020)

Edie said:


> It’s all a bit non-sense tbh mate. Like, I’m sure you probably can be hypoxic (not enough oxygen reaching the tissues) without being dyspnoic (which is just the medical term for short of breath or increased respiratory rate). For example, in exhausted patients in terminal phase. But most hypoxic patients will be short of breath. And we know that people with covid are hypoxic and short of breath.
> 
> Ground glass just refers to the appearance on CT.
> 
> Im still not sure what point he’s making?




I know what those words and terms mean, that’s why I used them 

The main point he’s making is that maybe intubation / ventilation might not be best practice in all cases.

I’m in no position to argue his case. I was just curious as to whether he was seeing something real and useful that supports Dr Gattinoni’s hypothesis, or if he’s grasping at straws.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 8, 2020)

EU science chief resigns, slamming bloc’s coronavirus response


> The president of the EU’s top science funding agency stepped down Tuesday, issuing a damning indictment of the bloc’s response to the coronavirus crisis.
> 
> Mauro Ferrari, an Italian-American scientist who has led the European Research Council since January, said he had resigned following a dispute over the EU’s approach to the crisis — stating he has “lost faith in the system.”





> ..
> As well as a failure to fund scientists to tackle the crisis, Ferrari cited a “complete absence of coordination of health care policies among member states, the recurrent opposition to cohesive financial support initiatives, the pervasive one-sided border closures, and the marginal scale of synergistic scientific initiatives” by the EU.
> ..





> Ferrari said his proposal that the council “establish a special program directed at combating Covid-19” was “rejected unanimously by the governing body of the ERC.”
> ..


from 08/04/2020 EU science chief resigns, slamming bloc’s coronavirus response


----------



## zahir (Apr 8, 2020)

Faroe Islands













						Veterinary scientist hailed for Faroe Islands' lack of Covid-19 deaths
					

Debes Christiansen adapted his salmon-testing lab to test for disease among humans




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Supine (Apr 8, 2020)

Some great info for amateur epidemiologists elbows et al 









						Why It’s So Freaking Hard To Make A Good COVID-19 Model
					

Here we are, in the middle of a pandemic, staring out our living room windows like aquarium fish. The question on everybody’s minds: How bad will this really ge…




					fivethirtyeight.com


----------



## krtek a houby (Apr 8, 2020)

Yorkshirelad said:


> This is not a test.



Make your mind up, lad



Yorkshirelad said:


> A new way of life is about to unfold get ready. *This is a test*... The next one will make you think about it, if you haven't already. Think about it!


----------



## elbows (Apr 8, 2020)

2h ago 11:37 

Not surprising but still useful to know which deaths have not been counted in countries.



> The latest figures come amid *speculation that the actual number of Covid-19 deaths in Spain is much higher* than official figures.
> 
> Recently released data from judicial authorities in Madrid, for example, suggest that 6,600 more people than usual died in the last two weeks of March, compared with the official tally of 3,500 Covid-19 deaths in the region.
> 
> When pressed, the health minister argued that Spain’s criteria ranks among the most stringent in Europe. “Everyone who tests positive and dies is counted as having died due to the coronavirus,” Illa told reporters.





> His explanation suggests that those who have died in elderly care homes and private residences – the vast majority of whom were not tested for the virus – are not included in the data.
> 
> Spain’s justice ministry has responded by requesting judicial authorities to urgently send all records of burials and cremations that have taken place since emergency measures were imposed in mid-March, according to broadcaster Cadena Ser.


----------



## krtek a houby (Apr 8, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> What is the difference between a new vaccine and some of these others they think will help? Shouldn't they focus on the ones already out there, they all keep getting spoken about by Trump and UK government so must have legs right?



Trump is hawking a malarial cure he has an interest in. His mate Bolsonaro seems keen on it as well. If you want to buy into this medicine show, that's your choice. But the hydroxychloroquine is only in a trial stage for treating C-19. And there are nasty side effects, apparently.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 8, 2020)

krtek a houby said:


> Trump is hawking a malarial cure he has an interest in. His mate Bolsonaro seems keen on it as well. If you want to buy into this medicine show, that's your choice. But the hydroxychloroquine is only in a trial stage for treating C-19. And there are nasty side effects, apparently.




Yes, nasty side effects, and a real risk of death if the dose is too high. 

It has a narrow therapeutic window for malaria, meaning that the dose that helps is very close to the dose that harms and even kills. The bit in between where therapy and help can be found is narrow,


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 8, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Yes, nasty side effects, and a real risk of death if the dose is too high.
> 
> It has a narrow therapeutic window for malaria, meaning that the dose that helps is very close to the dose that harms and even kills. The bit in between where therapy and help can be found is narrow,




The more I think about it the less useful it seems in terms of a useful therapy that could be widely applied.

Even if it works, people with C-19 are presenting with varying symptoms, and they can deteriorate really fast. How would the clinician find the right dose and the correct moment to give it to bring about the best outcome? I think at present it could only be a last resort medicine.


----------



## Yorkshirelad (Apr 8, 2020)

krtek a houby said:


> Make your mind up, lad


It's already made up boy.


----------



## kabbes (Apr 8, 2020)

Bizarrely, we have a stockpile of hydroxychloroquine.  The kabbess was given a 3 month supply in January as a speculative treatment for a condition she has.  But she stopped after three days because she was getting side effects and it didn’t seem worth it for the purely speculative benefits.  As a result, we have a whole load of it sitting on the kitchen counter.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 8, 2020)

I'm reasonably familiar with chloroquine as I was advised to take it several times in my younger years whilst travelling around.  I don't know whether it was they hydroxy version.  Anyway in short, it sent me mental every time I took it and now I'd never take it.  I'd rather risk malaria.

Horrible side affects.


----------



## editor (Apr 8, 2020)

Yorkshirelad said:


> It's already made up boy.


The make sense, child, or GTFO.


----------



## Doodler (Apr 8, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I know what those words and terms mean, that’s why I used them



I didn't and am always grateful when experts explain the technical terms they use in public.


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 8, 2020)

I think today's number for the UK is 896.

Edit. Maybe I should put that in the right forum eh?


----------



## NoXion (Apr 8, 2020)

Yorkshirelad said:


> A new way of life is about to unfold get ready. This is a test... The next one will make you think about it, if you haven't already. Think about it!


Let me guess... it's all a plot by the Illuminati space lizards to sap and impurify our precious bodily fluids. The only way to defeat this is to buy overpriced, possibly contaminated supplements and only listen to news if it's being misread and distorted by some purple-faced yelling twat.

You didn't give us much to go on, so I had to fill in some gaps.


----------



## Dogsauce (Apr 8, 2020)

Bit of an aside, but I wonder what impact isolation will be having on other contagious illnesses such as measles?

I recently started a small chicken pox epidemic after getting shingles (which may have arisen spontaneously due to my immunusupressanets) that went through both of my sons and got as far as another kid at the childminder’s place just as the lockdown commenced. Possibly it went no further!


----------



## Dogsauce (Apr 8, 2020)

.


----------



## Yorkshirelad (Apr 8, 2020)

NoXion said:


> Let me guess... it's all a plot by the Illuminati space lizards to sap and impurify our precious bodily fluids. The only way to defeat this is to buy overpriced, possibly contaminated supplements and only listen to news if it's being misread and distorted by some purple-faced yelling twat.
> 
> You didn't give us much to go on, so I had to fill in some gaps.


No its all about the corona virus. What did you think it was about purple faced yelling twat. Like always most people interpret the wrong meaning bloody hell get a grip. It's all about flicking the switch, at any given time. This is just a trial to see how we will respond. Think about it.


----------



## ddraig (Apr 8, 2020)

Yorkshirelad said:


> No its all about the corona virus. What did you think it was about purple faced yelling twat. Like always most people interpret the wrong meaning bloody hell get a grip. It's all about flicking the switch, at any given time. This is just a trial to see how we will respond. Think about it.


what fucking switch?


----------



## NoXion (Apr 8, 2020)

Yorkshirelad said:


> No its all about the corona virus. What did you think it was about purple faced yelling twat. Like always most people interpret the wrong meaning bloody hell get a grip. It's all about flicking the switch, at any given time. This is just a trial to see how we will respond. Think about it.


How is it a trial? Nobody planned for this virus, which is why a whole load of people are _fucking dying_.


----------



## Yorkshirelad (Apr 8, 2020)

NoXion said:


> How is it a trial? Nobody planned for this virus, which is why a whole load of people are _fucking dying_.


It's Thinking outside the box that makes the difference, seek and thou shall fucking find as you put it.


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Apr 8, 2020)

oh what is this toilet


----------



## Yorkshirelad (Apr 8, 2020)

ddraig said:


> what fucking switch?


The switch on and off.


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Apr 8, 2020)

This isn't Facebook. Say something that makes sense and carries a meaning or fuck off.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Apr 8, 2020)

Dogsauce said:


> Bit of an aside, but I wonder what impact isolation will be having on other contagious illnesses such as measles?


There were several reports that other contagious diseases like flu and the common cold were already being reduced by social distancing and people washing their hands more often.


----------



## Yorkshirelad (Apr 8, 2020)

FridgeMagnet said:


> oh what is this toilet


What it's a toilet now? this really is becoming a bit weird. I'll leave it to the administrator toilets is not my thing.


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Apr 8, 2020)

Yorkshirelad said:


> It's Thinking outside the box that makes the difference, seek and thou shall fucking find as you put it.


I very rarely say this on here but....fuck off with your fucking nonsense.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 8, 2020)

Live lecture on the mathematics of epidemiological modelling that might interest some:


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Apr 8, 2020)

Enough of this I feel.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 8, 2020)

Robotic platform boost for Covid-19 tests


> High-throughput, robotic technology normally used to test for infections in vulnerable people has been quickly repurposed for Covid-19 tests.
> ..





> Each robotic module can process almost 1,000 coronavirus samples in a 12-hour period using the same Covid-19 tests being used by the NHS, but processing more samples simultaneously with a range of different reagents. The platform is being accredited and approved, and last week began testing samples at two NHS hospitals in London, which have one robotic module each.





> Having completed validation on 251 real-life samples in blind testing, the platform began testing patient samples on April 6, 2020 and is now ready to be rolled out on a larger scale, for which the UK DRI is now looking for support.
> ..





> In a statement Professor Paul Freemont, Group Leader at the UK DRI’s Care Research and Technology Centre at Imperial College London and University of Surrey, said: “Getting a platform like this up and running isn’t straightforward – there are a lot of things to account for that could be the difference between success and failure, like the reliability of supply chains for sample kits, reagents and other essential equipment.


from 08/04/2020 Robotic platform boost for Covid-19 tests | The Engineer

Despite the challenges it looks like robotic testing could be part of the planned increase in UK daily testing Hancock was promoting. Will it be enough with other initiatives to reach 100,000 tests a day, time will tell.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 8, 2020)

EU feelings on face masks


> Executive summary
> 
> The use of medical face masks by healthcare workers must be given priority over the use in the community.
> The use of face masks in public may serve as a means of source control to reduce the spread of the infection in the community by minimising the excretion of respiratory droplets from infected individuals who have not yet developed symptoms or who remain asymptomatic. It is not known how much the use of masks in the community can contribute to a decrease in transmission in addition to the other countermeasures.
> ...


from 08/04/2020 Using face masks in the community - Reducing COVID-19 transmission from potentially asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic people through the use of face masks


----------



## zahir (Apr 8, 2020)

Faroe Islands to start lifting lockdown.


----------



## elbows (Apr 8, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I know what those words and terms mean, that’s why I used them
> 
> The main point he’s making is that maybe intubation / ventilation might not be best practice in all cases.
> 
> I’m in no position to argue his case. I was just curious as to whether he was seeing something real and useful that supports Dr Gattinoni’s hypothesis, or if he’s grasping at straws.



Theres another article about this here:









						With ventilators running out, doctors say the machines are overused for Covid-19
					

Critical care physicians are questioning the wide use of ventilators for #Covid19, saying that a large number of patients could instead be treated with less intensive respiratory support.




					www.statnews.com


----------



## zahir (Apr 8, 2020)

Greece tightens up its lockdown over Easter and stops most travel between islands.









						Greece tightens lockdown checks, suspends inter-island travel with few exceptions - Keep Talking Greece
					

Greece's Civil Protection announced on Wednesday a series of stringent controls at the main exits of




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 8, 2020)

Portugal:  
Parliament still meets albeit on line , new measures  agreed include Electricity, water, and gas cannot be shut off, and reducing the prison population. This includes partial pardon to prisoners with pre-existing health conditions, up to two-year sentences or less than two years left behind bars. For those serving sentences longer than six months who have served a quarter of their time, normally allowed three days leave, will be granted 45 days. Those convicted of homicide, sexual violence, physical abuse, or association with criminal networks will remain in prison, as well as anyone who committed a crime while in public office, from politicians to police officers.

“The virus would spread like a fuse in a prison,” justice minister Francisca Van Dunem said. “A decent state does not leave any of its citizens behind, even if they are prisoners.”


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 8, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> Portugal:
> Parliament still meets albeit on line , new measures  agreed include Electricity, water, and gas cannot be shut off, and reducing the prison population. This includes partial pardon to prisoners with pre-existing health conditions, up to two-year sentences or less than two years left behind bars. For those serving sentences longer than six months who have served a quarter of their time, normally allowed three days leave, will be granted 45 days. Those convicted of homicide, sexual violence, physical abuse, or association with criminal networks will remain in prison, as well as anyone who committed a crime while in public office, from politicians to police officers.
> 
> “The virus would spread like a fuse in a prison,” justice minister Francisca Van Dunem said. “*A decent state does not leave any of its citizens behind, even if they are prisoners.*”


I'm trying to imagine Priti Patel saying this. Nope. Can't.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 8, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I'm trying to imagine Priti Patel saying this. Nope. Can't.



Obviously she , the Portuguese minister is a Socialist Party member , I'm not sure what the voting was for this across all parties though.  The downside which I need to get some proper figures on and also do a stack of translating is the economic side of things . Tourism which is about 15% of the GDP and helped propel Portugal out of the 20008 recession is fucked this year.


----------



## Supine (Apr 9, 2020)

Social distancing research for cyclists


----------



## two sheds (Apr 9, 2020)

Think I might not go out and walk the dog along the road after all - only the odd cyclist, runner, horserider but still ..


----------



## Mation (Apr 9, 2020)

phillm said:


> This is doing the rounds on Facebook it looks real enough no idea if what he is saying is true or not which is that ventilators are killing more people than they save.



So he's saying that ventilators as currently used for Covid-19 take over the work of the muscles that usually get air into the lungs. And that that's useful, if your lungs are inflamed (pneumonia) and can't do that mechanical work by themselves. If the mechanics of the lungs fail, you don't get enough oxygen.

But he's seeing that people with Covid-19 illness do have working lung mechanics; that the reason they're not getting enough oxygen isn't because the lungs don't work, but because the virus, uniquely as far as we know thus far, affects our ability to utilise oxygen. And that putting extra pressure on lungs that actually aren't inflamed inadvertently does more harm than good to the lungs themselves, even while also providing more oxygen.

No idea whether what he's saying is batshit, but did I get that right? He's saying we're starting from a false premise and that that's why treatment is unreliable?


----------



## crossthebreeze (Apr 9, 2020)

Supine said:


> Social distancing research for cyclists


I wonder how wearing a mask alters this.


----------



## Mation (Apr 9, 2020)

Mation said:


> So he's saying that ventilators as currently used for Covid-19 take over the work of the muscles that usually get air into the lungs. And that that's useful, if your lungs are inflamed (pneumonia) and can't do that mechanical work by themselves. If the mechanics of the lungs fail, you don't get enough oxygen.
> 
> But he's seeing that people with Covid-19 illness do have working lung mechanics; that the reason they're not getting enough oxygen isn't because the lungs don't work, but because the virus, uniquely as far as we know thus far, affects our ability to utilise oxygen. And that putting extra pressure on lungs that actually aren't inflamed inadvertently does more harm than good to the lungs themselves, even while also providing more oxygen.
> 
> No idea whether what he's saying is batshit, but did I get that right? He's saying we're starting from a false premise and that that's why treatment is unreliable?


tl;dr: is he saying that this coronavirus doesn't cause pneumonia (inflamed lungs), but that it directly harms our ability to use oxygen?


----------



## Boru (Apr 9, 2020)

USA now with more deaths than Spain according to worldometers.


----------



## Concernedlocal (Apr 9, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> As it stands there is no vaccine for Covid-19.  There are new vaccines in development but these will take many months and potentially over a year and more to actually become available.
> 
> There are a number of existing drugs which have been touted as possible treatments for Covid-19.   Currently none of them have proven to work.  Anyone or any company that is claiming to be able to supply any product which is either a proven vaccine or a proven treatment is making claims they cannot back up.  They are most likely to be thieves and con artists looking to financially gain from people's legitimate fear.
> 
> Unfortunately at this stage the best that can happen is we continue to isolate and keep up the crucial hand washing and general good practices.



Thanks Teaboy your comments are appreciated. 

I have found a few things that are spoken about by governments being in trial like Chloroquine and didn't realise it is readily available to buy? Lloyds pharmacy have it online but all sold out, maybe people are buying up this type of thing?


----------



## Supine (Apr 9, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> Thanks Teaboy your comments are appreciated.
> 
> I have found a few things that are spoken about by governments being in trial like Chloroquine and didn't realise it is readily available to buy? Lloyds pharmacy have it online but all sold out, maybe people are buying up this type of thing?



It's not appropriate for self administration. In fact it could be more dangerous than catching covid - so stay at home and wash those hands!


----------



## teuchter (Apr 9, 2020)

Boru said:


> USA now with more deaths than Spain according to worldometers.
> View attachment 205620



I find it weird that so many of these trackers (and nearly all news reporting) insist on listing cases and deaths per country rather than per head of population. What is anyone supposed to conclude from the fact that the USA now has more deaths than Spain? Doesn't really mean anything without taking into account the size of each population - USA's is 7 times greater than Spain's.

There are problems with doing it by head of population too because in most countries the infections are not evenly spread across different areas within the country. But at least it's slightly more meaningful than the pointless "per country" figures.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 9, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> Thanks Teaboy your comments are appreciated.
> 
> I have found a few things that are spoken about by governments being in trial like Chloroquine and didn't realise it is readily available to buy? Lloyds pharmacy have it online but all sold out, maybe people are buying up this type of thing?



Absolutely people are trying these treatments especially since the President of the US is bigging them up and people are understandably scared.  Doesn't actually mean they work, we just don't know.  My personal experience with Chloroquine as an anti-malarial was that it had some very nasty side affects, for me anyway.  I wouldn't touch it again unless I absolutely positively had to and most certainly not on some vague hope that it might do something but probably won't.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 9, 2020)

Mation said:


> So he's saying that ventilators as currently used for Covid-19 take over the work of the muscles that usually get air into the lungs. And that that's useful, if your lungs are inflamed (pneumonia) and can't do that mechanical work by themselves. If the mechanics of the lungs fail, you don't get enough oxygen.
> 
> But he's seeing that people with Covid-19 illness do have working lung mechanics; that the reason they're not getting enough oxygen isn't because the lungs don't work, but because the virus, uniquely as far as we know thus far, affects our ability to utilise oxygen. And that putting extra pressure on lungs that actually aren't inflamed inadvertently does more harm than good to the lungs themselves, even while also providing more oxygen.
> 
> No idea whether what he's saying is batshit, but did I get that right? He's saying we're starting from a false premise and that that's why treatment is unreliable?




That’s pretty much how I’m interpreting it.

But also, some do seem to have viral pneumonia and others don’t. There’s some speculation that the difference is based in phenotypes.

 The link that elbows provided sets it out pretty clearly. (Sorry I didn’t tag you in my call out for medic folks in my post where I put some other links).


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 9, 2020)

Concernedlocal said:


> Thanks Teaboy your comments are appreciated.
> 
> I have found a few things that are spoken about by governments being in trial like Chloroquine and didn't realise it is readily available to buy? Lloyds pharmacy have it online but all sold out, maybe people are buying up this type of thing?




Please don’t try chloroquine at home! I doubt anyone can buy it at the pharmacy without a prescription, it’s potentially very dangerous!

If you user the search function you’ll find earlier discussion about this, but please believe that it’s potentially very dangerous!









						Nigerians poisoned after taking doses of drug praised by Trump
					

Its safety and effectiveness is unproven for use against the coronavirus




					www.theglobeandmail.com
				





(Sorry for the Feil link ...)









						Swedish hospitals scrap trial of malaria drug for COVID-19 patients
					

Doctors at the Sahlgrenska University Hospital in Vastra Gotaland are no longer administering the medication after patients like Carl Sydenhag (pictured) became more ill.




					www.dailymail.co.uk
				






In any case, everything I’m seeing suggests that chloroquine has shown useful results against viral replication of this virus _in vitro_ (literally “in glass”, meaning in test tubes, on microscope slides, Petri dishes i.e. in a laboratory setting) , which doesn’t necessarily mean that it has any clinical application.



ETA

More here, for anyone following this particular story.



			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanrhe/article/PIIS2665-9913(20)30093-X/fulltext


----------



## Pingety Pong (Apr 9, 2020)

Some scientists from the University of Bonn did lots of tests in Heinsberg (biggest outbreak in Germany) and are just doing a press conference. Some of their conclusions: fatality rate is 0.06 %, 15 % in Heinsberg are already immune and quarantine restrictions should be started to be eased. 






						Heinsberg Protokoll (@hbergprotokoll) on Twitter
					

The latest Tweets from Heinsberg Protokoll (@hbergprotokoll). Unter der Leitung von Prof. Dr. Streeck arbeiten Forscher*innen des UK Bonn an der Erforschung von Covid-19. #heinsbergprotokoll - documented by StoryMachine




					twitter.com


----------



## teuchter (Apr 9, 2020)

Pingety Pong said:


> Some scientists from the University of Bonn did lots of tests in Heinsberg (biggest outbreak in Germany) and are just doing a press conference. Some of their conclusions: fatality rate is *0.06 %*, 15 % in Heinsberg are already immune and quarantine restrictions should be started to be eased.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Fatality rate for those infected 0.37%, 0.15% in the total population studied, I think.


----------



## Pingety Pong (Apr 9, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Fatality rate for those infected 0.37%, 0.15% in the total population studied, I think.


I just listened to it again - he says fatality rate for those infected 0.37 %, but 0.06 % for the total population studied.


----------



## Boru (Apr 9, 2020)

teuchter said:


> I find it weird that so many of these trackers (and nearly all news reporting) insist on listing cases and deaths per country rather than per head of population. What is anyone supposed to conclude from the fact that the USA now has more deaths than Spain? Doesn't really mean anything without taking into account the size of each population - USA's is 7 times greater than Spain's.
> 
> There are problems with doing it by head of population too because in most countries the infections are not evenly spread across different areas within the country. But at least it's slightly more meaningful than the pointless "per country" figures.



That website has more info regarding cases, deaths, recoveries per population per million..but as has already been said these figures are not complete and change very fast.


----------



## phillm (Apr 9, 2020)

Mation said:


> So he's saying that ventilators as currently used for Covid-19 take over the work of the muscles that usually get air into the lungs. And that that's useful, if your lungs are inflamed (pneumonia) and can't do that mechanical work by themselves. If the mechanics of the lungs fail, you don't get enough oxygen.
> 
> But he's seeing that people with Covid-19 illness do have working lung mechanics; that the reason they're not getting enough oxygen isn't because the lungs don't work, but because the virus, uniquely as far as we know thus far, affects our ability to utilise oxygen. And that putting extra pressure on lungs that actually aren't inflamed inadvertently does more harm than good to the lungs themselves, even while also providing more oxygen.
> 
> No idea whether what he's saying is batshit, but did I get that right? He's saying we're starting from a false premise and that that's why treatment is unreliable?



He seems to be what he says he is an Emergency Doctor.  He has a latest, shorter cri-de-coeur that he feels that the current, newly forming 'medical orthodoxies' about treating this novel virus are looking in the wrong places.









						Cameron Kylesidell, MD | Maimonides Medical Center
					






					www.maimonidesmed.org
				












						Do COVID-19 Vent Protocols Need a Second Look?
					

How what Cameron Kyle-Sidell, MD, saw in an NYC ICU prompted him to re-examine COVID-19 ventilator protocols



					www.medscape.com
				




*Whyte: *This is more like a high-altitude sickness. Is that right?

*Kyle-Sidell: *Yes. The patients in front of me are unlike any patients I've ever seen., and I've seen a great many patients and have treated many diseases. You get used to seeing certain patterns, and the patterns I was seeing did not make sense. This originally came to me when we had a patient who had hit what we call our trigger to put in a breathing tube, meaning she had displayed a level of hypoxia of low oxygen levels where we thought she would need a breathing tube. Most of the time, when patients hit that level of hypoxia, they're in distress and they can barely talk; they can't say complete sentences. She could do all of those and she did not want a breathing tube. So she asked that we put it in at the last minute possible. It was this perplexing clinical condition: When was I supposed to put the breathing tube in? When was the last minute possible? All the instincts as a physician—like looking to see if she tires out —none of those things occurred. It's extremely perplexing. But I came to realize that this condition is nothing I've ever seen before. And so I started to read to try to figure it out, leaving aside the exact mechanism of how this disease is causing havoc on the body, but instead trying to figure out what the clinical syndrome looked like.


----------



## Mation (Apr 9, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> (Sorry I didn’t tag you in my call out for medic folks in my post where I put some other links).


S'ok. I'm not a medic.  

(I used to do science and science communication, but this is nowhere near my area of expertish!)


----------



## Mation (Apr 9, 2020)

phillm said:


> He seems to be what he says he is an Emergency Doctor.  He has a latest, shorter cri-de-coeur that he feels that the current, newly forming 'medical orthodoxies' about treating this novel virus are looking in the wrong places.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Fuck 

Thank you for posting that. 

Let's hope people are able to listen to him and start thinking about how to change tack. It's encouraging that Medscape/WebMD are taking the idea that this is an entirely new disease seriously enough to publish that interview.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 9, 2020)

Mation said:


> Fuck
> 
> Thank you for posting that.
> 
> Let's hope people are able to listen to him and start thinking about how to change tack. It's encouraging that Medscape/WebMD are taking the idea that this is an entirely new disease seriously enough to publish that interview.




Yes, it's very interesting and it could be that he's right. It chimes with some stuff an Italian doctor was saying a few weeks ago too.



			https://www.esicm.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/684_author-proof.pdf
		










						Is Protocol-Driven COVID-19 Ventilation Doing More Harm Than Good?
					

'This is a kind of disease in which you don't have to follow the protocol — you have to follow the physiology. Unfortunately many doctors...cannot think outside the protocol,' said Dr. Luciano Gattinoni.



					www.medscape.com
				






However ... (and this isn't directed at you Mation, I'm making the general point)   ....

Dr Kyle-Sidell be especially good at seeing things in the round, seeing something that has been missed or overlooked by others in the panic and fast moving mayhem, he may well be especially good at seeinghtings from a novel perspective, he may be good at synthesising knowledge. He may have cracked the problem with C-19, or made basecamp in the journey towards that

BUT it's also possible that he's grasping at straws, misinterpreting what he's seeing, plain misguided or wrongheaded.


It's far too early to be able to make any kind of judgement about this. I'm guessing that Dr Kyle-Sidell will be trying hard to read and study and extrapolate and interpolate from other front line findings, and also trying to treat according to his hypotheses at least in some cases. He'll presumably be discussing this with his colleagues as well. All of this will help to unpick it. But we just don't know, and it's too soon to be able to dig into the facts and details. Theres' going to be a huge amount of debriefing and archeology when this is over.

(I'm really worried that if this turns out to be valid, it will suggest that an enormous number of people died who could have been saved. That's an awful dreadful thing to think about.)





Anecdotally, I was talking about this with a colleague last night (we both have medical degrees and primary health care experience) . She is suspicious that she may have C-19 but with mild symptoms. She said that the way her lungs feel is exactly the same as living/working at 2,500 feet for two week stints at bi-monthly intervals (i.e. not for long enough to become fully acclimatised to the altitude). She said she - quite independently of this hypothesis from Dr Kyle-Siddow - had compared the way she was feeling now, at sea level, with the way it felt to be at 2,500 feet. She was struck by the fact that this idea is now being suggested by a front line critical care doctor.  Disclaimer : IN NO WAY is this any kind of support for the hypothesis, it's just a little bit of background colour.


----------



## elbows (Apr 9, 2020)

He may also just be pointing out in more dramatic fashion what has already been noted and acted on elsewhere. I dont have enough evidence to support this conclusion yet, but I expect others have and are continuing to look at the issue.


----------



## elbows (Apr 9, 2020)

I've not heard anything from the Porton Down serology/antibody studies yet, so here is something from Germany instead. I'm afraid this is a machine translation but as I found the detail interesting and didnt have time to look around to see if its been reported, it will have to do for now:



			https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf
		




> Background: The municipality of Gangelt is one of the most affected places in Germany by COVID19 in Germany. The infection is believed to be due to a carnival session on February 15, 2020, as several people tested positive for SARSCoV2 after this session. The carnival session and the outbreak of the session are currently being examined in more detail. A representative sample was drawn from the community of Gangelt (12,529 inhabitants) in the Heinsberg district. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends a protocol in which 100 to 300 households are sampled depending on the expected prevalence. This sample was coordinated with its representativeness with Prof. Manfred Güllner (Forsa).





> Aim: The aim of the study is to determine the level of the SARS-CoV2 infections (percentage of all infected) that have passed through and are still occurring in the Gangelt community. In addition, the status of the current SARS-CoV2 immunity is to be determined.
> 
> Procedure: A form letter was sent to approximately 600 households. A total of around 1000 residents from around 400 households took part in the study. Questionnaires were collected, throat swabs were taken and blood was tested for the presence of antibodies (IgG, IgA). The interim results and conclusions of approx. 500 people are included in this first evaluation.





> Preliminary result: An existing immunity of approx. 14% (anti-SARS-CoV2 IgG positive, specificity of the method>, 99%) was determined. About 2% of the people had a current SARS-CoV-2 infection determined using the PCR method. The overall infection rate (current infection or already gone through) was approximately 15%. The mortality rate (case fatality rate) based on the total number of infected people in the community of Gangelt is approx. 0.37% with the preliminary data from this study. The lethality currently calculated by the Johns-Hopkins University in Germany is 1.98% and is 5 times higher. Mortality based on the total population in Gangelt is currently 0.15%.





> Preliminary conclusion: The 5-fold higher lethality calculated by Johns-Hopkins University compared to this study in Gangelt is explained by the different reference size of the infected. In Gangelt, this study includes all infected people in the sample, including those with asymptomatic and mild courses. The proportion of the population that has already developed immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is about 15%. This means that 15% of the population in Gangelt can no longer become infected with SARS-CoV-2, and the process has already begun until herd immunity is reached. This 15 percent share of the population reduces the speed (net reproduction number R in epidemiological models) of a further spread of SARS-CoV-2.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 9, 2020)

elbows said:


> I've not heard anything from the Porton Down serology/antibody studies yet, so here is something from Germany instead. I'm afraid this is a machine translation but as I found the detail interesting and didnt have time to look around to see if its been reported, it will have to do for now:
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.land.nrw/sites/default/files/asset/document/zwischenergebnis_covid19_case_study_gangelt.pdf


Posted earlier on this very thread!
There was a bit of confusion about the mortality numbers.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 9, 2020)

I was in Germany right around that time - mid-late February. Carnival in full flow with lots of big gatherings, crowded trains and so on. At that time, no-one (including me) really thinking of the virus as an immediate threat but already spreading unseen I guess.


----------



## elbows (Apr 9, 2020)

Ah, sorry I missed it earlier, impossible to keep on top of everything as time has gone on.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 9, 2020)

Cranfield and Georgia Tech roll-out flat pack BVM ventilator


> Cranfield University and Georgia Tech have designed and built a low-cost, BVM ventilator
> ..
> The Bag Valve Mask (BVM) ventilator is said to serve two patients simultaneously and its so-called ‘flat-pack’ design means it can be quickly manufactured at scale at a cost of under £75 ($100) per unit.
> ..





> Professor Leon Williams, head of the Centre for Competitive Creative Design (C4D) at Cranfield University, joined forces with Associate Professor Shannon Yee from Georgia Tech (Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, USA_*)*_ to rapidly design and build the low-cost and robust makeshift ventilator.
> ..





> A small batch of the devices has already been assembled for testing. The research team intends to make plans for the device to be available to manufacturers as quickly as possible.


from 07/04/2020 Cranfield and Georgia Tech roll-out flat pack BVM ventilator | The Engineer

Lots of uni / industry collaborations involved in the issue of ventilators, and breathing aids, many are making their designs open source so the developing world can use them in their own responses to the pandemic.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 9, 2020)

20,000 Brits in India want to come home
source BBC News

A flight, probably the first of many, arrived back at Heathrow today.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 9, 2020)

What?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 9, 2020)

teqniq seems a pretty stupid decision at this point in time. 

Is this Trump's doing or someone else?


----------



## teqniq (Apr 9, 2020)

Looks more like a colossal fuck up to me. but who knows?


----------



## two sheds (Apr 9, 2020)

Obama probably said it was a good idea to keep it open some time.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 9, 2020)

A little about Japan

Japan's sudden spike in coronavirus cases after Olympics postponement raises eyebrows


> Japan reported more than 500 new positive cases of the novel coronavirus for the first time Thursday, the latest in a sudden spike in infections since the Tokyo Olympicswere postponed till next year.


from 09/04/2020 Japan's sudden spike in coronavirus cases after Olympics postponement raises eyebrows

Japan coronavirus cases pass 5,000 as state of emergency fails to keep people home


> The total number of Japanese novel coronavirus infections hit at least 5,002 on Thursday, NHK public broadcaster said, showing no signs of slowing despite a state of emergency being imposed this week on Tokyo and six other areas.
> ..





> In contrast to stringent lockdowns in some countries, mandating fines and arrests for non-compliance, enforcement will rely more on peer pressure and a deep-rooted Japanese tradition of respect for authority.
> 
> Tokyo's nightlife districts of Shibuya, Akasaka and Ginza areas were much quieter than usual overnight as the state of emergency took effect, but elsewhere on Thursday things seemed as busy as usual.


from 09/04/2020 Japan coronavirus cases pass 5,000 as state of emergency fails to keep people home


----------



## oryx (Apr 9, 2020)

Could anyone explain to me in simple terms (because to say I'm no statistician is a very gross understatement) why the UK seems to have a high rate of deaths against cases, as compared to most other countries)? 

I am looking at the BBC's tally and dividing the number of cases by deaths. Is it because we have a lower rate of testing and therefore the infection rate is skewed to look lower than it would if the testing rate was higher?

I've been looking at the CV threads and can't remember seeing anything about this.


----------



## prunus (Apr 9, 2020)

oryx said:


> Could anyone explain to me in simple terms (because to say I'm no statistician is a very gross understatement) why the UK seems to have a high rate of deaths against cases, as compared to most other countries)?
> 
> I am looking at the BBC's tally and dividing the number of cases by deaths. Is it because we have a lower rate of testing and therefore the infection rate is skewed to look lower than it would if the testing rate was higher?
> 
> I've been looking at the CV threads and can't remember seeing anything about this.



It is as you say, because we are hardly doing any testing; also most (almost all at the moment) of the testing we are doing is of people who have been hospitalised, who are naturally going to be a subset of all cases with the most severe disease, and hence more likely to die.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 9, 2020)

South Korea 

South Korea took rapid, intrusive measures against Covid-19 – and they worked


> South Korea immediately began testing hundreds of thousands of asymptomatic people, including at drive-through centres. South Korea employed a central tracking app, Corona 100m, that publicly informs citizens of known cases within 100 metres of where they are. Surprisingly, a culture that has often rebelliously rejected authoritarianism has embraced intrusive measures.





> ..
> From 16 March, South Korea started to screen all people arriving at airports, Koreans included. South Koreans have universal health care, double the number of hospital beds compared to Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) norms (and triple that of the UK), and are accustomed to paying half what Americans pay for similar medical procedures.


from 20/03/2020 South Korea took rapid, intrusive measures against Covid-19 – and they worked | Alexis Dudden and Andrew Marks

South Korea's Foreign Minister explains how the country contained COVID-19


> Despite a sudden spike in infections, South Korea is now winning the fight against the COVID-19 coronavirus.
> ..
> “We acted early. But much of it surprised us – especially how fast it moves,” the Foreign Minister explains. The first 30 cases identified in South Korea were handled in a steady and diligent manner. But that all changed with the appearance of Patient 31.





> ..
> Between 19 January and 18 February, South Korea had recorded a total of 30 cases and no deaths. That slow increase in infections soon changed – 18 February was the day it recorded its 31st case. Within 10 days, there were more than 2,300 cases.
> 
> Patient 31 was what is known as a super-spreader – someone who passes the infection on to a larger number of people.





> ..
> Foreign Minister Kang also explains that being open with people and securing their trust is vitally important. “The key to our success has been absolute transparency with the public – sharing every detail of how this virus is evolving, how it is spreading and what the government is doing about it, warts and all.”
> ..





> “Testing is absolutely critical with a fast-travelling virus like this,” says Kang. “We have tested over 350,000 cases so far – some patients are tested many times before they are released, so we can say they are fully cured.
> ..





> “Even with schools opening, we realize it’s not going to be normal like things were before the coronavirus. Normal after the virus is going to look very different. This will be with us for a long time. So we all need to find a way to manage it at a status quo level.”


from 31/03/2020 South Korea's foreign minister explains how the country contained COVID-19


----------



## oryx (Apr 9, 2020)

prunus said:


> It is as you say, because we are hardly doing any testing; also most (almost all at the moment) of the testing we are doing is of people who have been hospitalised, who are naturally going to be a subset of all cases with the most severe disease, and hence more likely to die.


Thanks prunus . I thought that was probably the case but wondered if I was missing something.


----------



## editor (Apr 9, 2020)

This is a good read. NZ really are a fucking excellent country. 









						At home in an Auckland hotel: My two weeks in Covid-19 quarantine
					

He came straight off a plane and into quarantine. Now his Auckland hotel feels like a sort of home.



					thespinoff.co.nz


----------



## weltweit (Apr 10, 2020)

EU agrees €500bn coronavirus rescue package


> EU finance ministers have agreed a €500bn (£440bn) rescue package for European countries hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic.
> ..
> But the ministers failed to accept a demand from France and Italy to share out the cost of the crisis by issuing so-called coronabonds.





> The package is smaller than the European Central Bank had urged.
> 
> The ECB has said the bloc may need up to €1.5tn (£1.3tn) to tackle the crisis.
> ..
> The coronavirus pandemic has exposed deep divisions in Europe, where Italy and Spain have accused northern nations - led by Germany and the Netherlands - of not doing enough.


from 09/04/2020 EU agrees €500bn coronavirus rescue package


----------



## zahir (Apr 10, 2020)

The lockdown in Greenland.









						Greenland watches ... and waits for virus
					

It would take relatively few seriously ill patients on Greenland, the world's largest island, to outrun the capacity of the nation's health services.




					euobserver.com


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 10, 2020)

editor said:


> This is a good read. NZ really are a fucking excellent country.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I agree so much. NZ's response to this has been incredible. 

I was thinking yesterday of those people who were repatriated on that flight from Wuhan early on, and held in a centralized quarantine. It seems so pointless now. What a waste of their time that was. I can't get my head around how there was clearly a point when we understood that imported cases were going to be an issue, and then we just let everyone keep flying in from infected areas without any screening at all, and barely tested our population.


----------



## DaveCinzano (Apr 10, 2020)

UK now fifth (out of 209 countries/territories  ) in terms of deaths, and set to step over Iran tomorrow into seventh place for total confirmed cases


----------



## 2hats (Apr 10, 2020)

oryx said:


> Could anyone explain to me in simple terms (because to say I'm no statistician is a very gross understatement) why the UK seems to have a high rate of deaths against cases, as compared to most other countries)?


The true number of UK cases is likely several times the published figure (currently just over 65k).

Aside from the lack of testing and bias arising from hospitalisation figures...

The crude case fatality ratio has, over the last couple of months, been variously estimated as somewhere in the range 0.1-3%. However more recent estimates are of 0.7% from modelling (Imperial, DOI: 10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30243-7) and 1.9% from testing (extensively in Germany, RKI). The ECDC currently estimate 1.5% from data across EU/EEA.

A CFR of say 1-2% would (currently) suggest around half a million UK cases about 2 weeks ago. Which would probably equate to something in the ballpark of 5-10 million by now (UK cases are doubling almost every 4 days). But since the fatality figure (8k) is certainly an undercount, there will be yet more cases still.

Separately, Imperial estimated from modelling, a couple of million cases for the UK (just over a week ago, so numbers obviously higher now). They've talked of about 5-10% of Londoners being infected which would fit well with a few million nationally.

One further data point: the total number of potential COVID19 cases (from NHS 111/Pathways online assessments, not actual testing) is about 2 million right now. If maybe up to half of cases are asymptomatic, there's a possible 4 million.

e2a: Additional datapoint.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Apr 10, 2020)

We're doing okay, Australias death toll stands at 53 today.  We have 6,000 cases nationally. The number of new cases each day continues to decline.

The number of drive through testing stations is increasing daily.

The test will be if people continue to obey the rules and stay home over Easter.

My son in law, who was laid off work at a restaurant a few weeks ago, is back at work with the gov paying him $750 a week wages for the next six months. The restaurants now doing home delivery or pick up service. 

Which is just as well because our dole seems to have temporarily crashed under the weight of new applications.

Things probably wouldn't even be at this level if it hadn't had been for this incident..









						Ruby Princess: battle begins to hold someone accountable for cruise ship coronavirus debacle
					

Conflicting accounts by federal and state authorities, and the company’s opaque corporate structure, stand in way of claims by passengers on the ship




					www.google.com


----------



## bimble (Apr 10, 2020)

This is just a nightmare. "More than 90 people who fully recovered from the novel coronavirus have tested positive for COVID-19 again" .. scientists in S Korea saying this is not about faulty tests but that the virus is 'reactivating' in people.








						91 recovered virus patients test positive again: KCDC | Yonhap News Agency
					

SEOUL, April 10 (Yonhap) -- More than 90 people who fully recovered from the novel coronav...




					en.yna.co.kr


----------



## platinumsage (Apr 10, 2020)

bimble said:


> This is just a nightmare. "More than 90 people who fully recovered from the novel coronavirus have tested positive for COVID-19 again" .. scientists in S Korea saying this is not about faulty tests but that the virus is 'reactivating' in people.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The two important things to discover about this are whether these people experience any symptoms of reinfection and whether they can infect others. If the answer to both is no, it's more a scientific curiosity than something to worry about.


----------



## bimble (Apr 10, 2020)

thank you for that little offered bit of hope.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 10, 2020)

bimble said:


> This is just a nightmare. "More than 90 people who fully recovered from the novel coronavirus have tested positive for COVID-19 again" .. scientists in S Korea saying this is not about faulty tests but that the virus is 'reactivating' in people.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


My first thought was that perhaps there was a problem with the tests, but seeing as this is South Korea whose medical and scientific resources seem to have been excellent this seems unlikely.


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 10, 2020)

Coronavirus deaths in Iran lead to mass burial pits, changing the way families mourn
					

The coronavirus has brought mass graves, devastated families and a change to Islamic burial rituals in Iran. The pandemic is changing how Iranians live and die.




					www.latimes.com
				




March 13th. Oh noes. The Iranians can't cope. Mass graves and trenches.









						Coronavirus: New York has more cases than any country
					

Photos emerge of workers in hazmat outfits stacking coffins in a mass grave in New York City.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




April 10th. Oh...dear. New York has more coronavirus cases than *any country *in the world. And are building mass graves and trenches.

_On Hart Island, like they've always done. Only now prisoners from Rikers Island are no longer doing the job as they usually do, it's been contracted out._


----------



## little_legs (Apr 10, 2020)




----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 10, 2020)

Christ. Is that two rows of pine boxes buried two deep?

Looks about 100 coffins already in the ground there. 

How the fuck would you go visit your loved one’s graveside? If there’s anyone left to grieve.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 10, 2020)

little_legs said:


>





They deal with the Hajj Cough every year and MERS was a legitimate threat and they have money. Why have they not dealt with this better?


----------



## platinumsage (Apr 10, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Christ. Is that two rows of pine boxes buried two deep?
> 
> Looks about 100 coffins already in the ground there.
> 
> How the fuck would you go visit your loved one’s graveside? If there’s anyone left to grieve.



Unlike the usual denizens of graves on Hart Island, these are intended to be reinterred when the crisis is over. They decided this was preferable to 6+ month storage in refrigerated trucks


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 10, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Christ. Is that two rows of pine boxes buried two deep?
> 
> Looks about 100 coffins already in the ground there.
> 
> How the fuck would you go visit your loved one’s graveside? If there’s anyone left to grieve.



City officials say that so far, only unclaimed bodies are being buried at Hart Island - where there's already around a million of them, going back many years - but they'll start burying more coronavirus victims there when the morgues and mortuaries are all full. They're apparently clearing the morgues of unclaimed bodies to make way for more coronavirus victims, a fleet of 80 refrigerated trucks, each with the capacity for 100 bodies, is also almost full.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 10, 2020)

Some worldwide summary pages for anyone who is interested









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 129,471,257 Cases and 2,828,154 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				






			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105
		










						COVID-19 situation update worldwide
					

This update has been discontinued - please see the Weekly Country Overview report.




					www.ecdc.europa.eu


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 10, 2020)

Thanks Yossarian platinumsage 


* goes to google Hart Island *


----------



## treelover (Apr 10, 2020)

Recall a Daily Mirror front page with photos of mass burials on it, baleful history, workhouses, prisons, etc,  but fascinating historically.


----------



## treelover (Apr 10, 2020)

Mafia distributes food to Italy's struggling residents
					

Organised crime groups offer support to quarantined families who have run out of cash




					www.theguardian.com
				




Mafia chipping in to help


----------



## sunnysidedown (Apr 10, 2020)

The Soapranos


----------



## weltweit (Apr 10, 2020)

Haven't had much mention of France in this thread ..

12,210 deaths 
Worldometers France Summary page France Coronavirus: 117,749 Cases and 12,210 Deaths - Worldometer

Coronavirus: the situation in Paris and île-de-France on April 10


> In France, according to the latest report from the health authorities as for the COVID-19 pandemic, 12,210 people have died (8,044 deaths in hospitals and 4,166 in social-medical centers such as nursing homes). This Thursday April 9, 412 deaths have been recorded in hospitals in 24 hours and 929 deaths in social-medical centers in 48 hours.
> ..





> It's the Ile-de-France region that is hit the more severely by the epidemic. As of April 9, 3,040 deaths have been reported in regional hospitals, +200 deaths these past 24 hours. There are currently 2,667 people in ICU (1% off). It's the first time the number of people in ICU is decreasing.
> ..
> President Emmanuel Macron will address the French people on Monday April 13, 2020 at 8 p.m.. It will be the third time the President addresses on television since this health crisis has started in France. He's expected to tell more about the extension of confinement and decisions made by the government.
> ..





> Paris mayor also says on France Info that 2 million facemasks made of fabric and washable and reusable "will be given to Parisians". They will be made by local companies and available within a few days.
> ..
> After twenty days on lockdown in France, even though we're not at it yet, different deconfinement scenarios are being studied. Among the hypothesis, one is about a deconfinement per age order: the youngest, least vulnerable would be the first one to be allowed out again.
> ..





> Christophe Castaner warns French tempted to go on Easter vacations: "You shall not go on holidays during confinement" he said on LCI.


from 10/04/2020 Coronavirus: the situation in Paris and île-de-France on April 10
So in France half as many again deaths have occurred in nursing homes as the total deaths in Hospital. 

French death toll passes 10,000 (from 07/04/2020)


> Latest figures show 10,238 people died from the virus since 1 March. In the past 24 hours, 607 deaths have been recorded in hospitals.
> 
> A further 820 deaths were recorded in nursing homes. However, they may have taken place over several days and are only now being added to the toll.





> France has been under lockdown since 15 March, with fines for violations.
> ..
> On Tuesday, Paris said it would ban people from exercising outdoors between 10:00 and 19:00 local time.
> 
> ...





> The epidemic is still in its "upward phase," Director of Health Jérôme Salomon said, with the number of daily deaths, hospitalisations and critical cases still going up. "The peak has not been reached," he said.
> 
> However, there are signs that the rate of growth is slowing.


from 07/04/2020 Death toll in France goes above 10,000


----------



## weltweit (Apr 10, 2020)

Is France’s president fueling the hype over an unproven coronavirus treatment?


> The highly politicized debate about the use of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, two antimalarial drugs, to treat COVID-19 has reached an extreme in France, where two small trials purporting to show potential benefit were done.
> ..





> The popular faith in hydroxychloroquine stands in stark contrast to the weakness of the data. Several studies of its efficacy against COVID-19 have delivered an equivocal or negative verdict, and it can have significant side effects, including heart arrhythmias. Raoult’s positive studies have been widely criticized for their limitations and methodological issues. The first included only 42 patients, and Raoult chose who received the drug or a placebo, a no-no in clinical research; the International Society of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy has distanced itself from the paper, published in the society’s International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents. The second study, published as a preprint without peer review, didn’t have a control group at all.


from 10/04/2020 Is France’s president fueling the hype over an unproven coronavirus treatment?

There seems to be quite a controversy in France over these drugs with the population or at least a large proportion demanding them, science and medics disagreeing as to their efficacy and the only trials being compromised in various ways.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 10, 2020)

Meanwhile also in France:









						French police turn back private jet of holidaymakers from UK
					

Party of 10 flew into Marseille-Provence airport to be taken by helicopter to luxury Cannes villa




					www.theguardian.com
				






> A group of would-be holidaymakers who flew in a private jet from London to the Côte d’Azur in France have been turned back by police.
> 
> Seven men and three women arrived on the chartered aircraft to Marseille-Provence airport, where helicopters were waiting to fly them on to Cannes, where they had rented a luxury villa.
> 
> The men, aged 40-50, and women, aged 23-25, were refused permission to enter France and ordered by police to fly back to the UK....


----------



## Saul Goodman (Apr 10, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Meanwhile also in Fance:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Such a shame. Heart bleeds, etc.


----------



## Anju (Apr 10, 2020)

An infection rate of less than 1% from a study based on testing  1500 people chosen as a representative sample of the general population. If accurate this sort of data has to be the end of any herd immunity policies.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/less-than-1-of-austria-infected-with-coronavirus-new-study-shows?


----------



## spellbinder (Apr 10, 2020)

This is heart-wrenching


----------



## elbows (Apr 10, 2020)

Thanks for the France info. 

Singapore, where things are unfortunately turning out like I expected.



> But Prof Dale Fisher, chair of the WHO's Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network and a professor at the National University of Singapore, told the BBC that whenever he heard people say Singapore was doing well, he'd reply: "So far."
> 
> "This is a really hard disease to contain," he says.





> And on Tuesday evening, Singapore passed a new law, which - although it's not using the term - is effectively a partial national lockdown.
> 
> Everyone is prohibited from leaving their homes except for essential activities and exercise, with fines of up to S$10,000 ($7,000; £5,600) or six months in prison.



As for the 'Singapore is the gold standard' wankers (not on this forum), detail about what is happening there makes it clear what sort of country we are talking about.



> But the alarming exponential rise in the last week has been around Singapore's migrant worker population - the hundreds of thousands of men from poorer countries employed in construction, shipping, and maintenance.
> 
> Singapore is utterly dependent on these workers to keep its economy operating, but they are jobs in which social distancing is all but impossible.
> 
> ...











						Coronavirus: Should the world worry about Singapore's virus surge?
					

With cases increasing in tightly-packed dormitories, experts say Singapore offers a salutary lesson.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## 2hats (Apr 10, 2020)

Anju said:


> An infection rate of less than 1% from a study based on testing  1500 people chosen as a representative sample of the general population. If accurate this sort of data has to be the end of any herd immunity policies.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/less-than-1-of-austria-infected-with-coronavirus-new-study-shows?


Caution: that survey was conducted using a PCR testing regime that looks for the viral RNA and not one that looks for antibodies (which would better indicate immunity and prior exposure). That particular test manufacturer (Roche) also clearly states:

"Positive results are indicative of SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection, but may not represent the presence of transmissible virus. Negative results do not preclude SARS-CoV-2 infection and should not be used as the sole basis for patient management decisions."


----------



## Anju (Apr 10, 2020)

2hats said:


> Caution: that survey was conducted using a PCR testing regime that looks for the viral RNA and not one that looks for antibodies (which would better indicate immunity and prior exposure). That particular test manufacturer (Roche) also clearly states:
> 
> "Positive results are indicative of SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection, but may not represent the presence of transmissible virus. Negative results do not preclude SARS-CoV-2 infection and should not be used as the sole basis for patient management decisions."



I don't think any test  is going to give close to 100% accurate results when trying to work out infection rates. 

The antibody tests, as far as I can find out, do not give accurate results until a certain time after a person has recovered, so would give an even less accurate picture unless done twice with sufficient time between them. Also would all tests for this coronavirus not have a disclaimer as they are relatively new and untested. 

I just can't work out how a snapshot from 5 days testing could be used to estimate total number of people who have been infected over say a month. I don't think they have attempted to do that buy I have no real understanding of statistics so may well be completely wrong.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 10, 2020)

George Monbiot bang on the money here imo:


----------



## weltweit (Apr 10, 2020)

A little more on France 

Business owners fear they may not survive COVID-19 crisis


> France is rolling out emergency measures to help small businesses survive. The boost includes tax relief and a "solidarity fund". But some business owners fear that will not be enough to reopen their doors once the lockdown is over.


from 04/04/2020 France: Business owners fear they may not survive COVID-19 crisis
Same issues people are finding in other developed countries that have instituted lockdowns although trade was already down for many retailers. 04/04 seems a little late to be taking measures perhaps. 

France is officially working on ‘Stop Covid’ contact-tracing app


> France’s health minister Olivier Véran and digital minister Cédric O have officially announced that the French government is working on a smartphone app to slow the spread of COVID-19. The government is putting a stamp of approval on the Pan-European Privacy-Preserving Proximity Tracing (PEPP-PT) project but remains cautious about what to expect from an app.
> ..





> They’re working on an open standard to develop contact-tracing apps. Those apps would rely on Bluetooth Low Energy to identify other phones running the same app. If, at some point, you are near an infected person, you would be notified.


from 08/04/2020 TechCrunch is now a part of Verizon Media

I know in China and South Korea they have used smart phones as part of the tools to manage this outbreak, looks like they are looking seriously at it in France. I have no idea if it is being worked on in the UK.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 10, 2020)

Anju said:


> I don't think any test  is going to give close to 100% accurate results when trying to work out infection rates.


Correct. No tests will provide 100% accurate results.


> The antibody tests, as far as I can find out, do not give accurate results until a certain time after a person has recovered, so would give an even less accurate picture unless done twice with sufficient time between them. Also would all tests for this coronavirus not have a disclaimer as they are relatively new and untested.


Antibody tests will provide an answer (to within the degree of accuracy of the particular test concerned) providing the antibodies they are looking for are present. If those antibodies don't persist for something like at least a year (better: more) then we've got problems.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I have no idea if it is being worked on in the UK.


Several groups in the UK are looking into such. NHSX are working on a contact tracing app.


----------



## Anju (Apr 10, 2020)

2hats said:


> we've got problems



This is probably the most accurate thing anyone can say right now.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 10, 2020)

Interestingly, on the subject of tracker apps, analysis arising from the Kings College 'COVID Symptom Tracker' app, is suggesting about 10% of the (UK) population have perhaps been infected. Again, there could be a factor of up to two error there to account for asymptomatic cases since subjects will to some degree be self-selecting. This adds weight to the idea that a few (sub 15 say) million have probably been infected.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 10, 2020)

2hats said:


> Interestingly, on the subject of tracker apps, analysis arising from the Kings College 'COVID Symptom Tracker' app, is suggesting about 10% of the (UK) population have perhaps been infected. Again, there could be a factor of up to two error there to account for asymptomatic cases since subjects will to some degree be self-selecting. This adds weight to the idea that a few (sub 15 say) million have probably been infected.


Interesting initiative, I sort of heard about it but didn't register it for some reason. Big take-up of the app.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 10, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> At the risk of making a pearoast, has anyone linked to the google mobility reports yet?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


These have been updated in the past 24 hours. For the UK mostly no huge changes apart from a clear uptick in activity around parks/beaches/public gardens coincident with improving weather.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 10, 2020)

Just having a browse of the publicised vaccine research programmes and it looks like there are some 30+ different SARS-Cov-2 vaccines being worked on, and at least one immunotherapy. Obviously not all will deliver.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 10, 2020)

2hats said:


> Just having a browse of the publicised vaccine research programmes and it looks like there are some 30+ different SARS-Cov-2 vaccines being worked on, and at least one immunotherapy. Obviously not all will deliver.



One will do


----------



## 2hats (Apr 10, 2020)

two sheds said:


> One will do


Perhaps only one of those _candidates_ will prove to be effective in the long term...


----------



## Boru (Apr 10, 2020)

Ireland lockdown restrictions extended until May 5. It's going to be a strange month but hopefully there will be some good news at the end of it.









						Coronavirus measures to remain in place until 5 May
					

The Taoiseach has announced that the Covid-19 restrictions will be extended for a further three weeks until Tuesday 5 May.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## weltweit (Apr 10, 2020)

These questions about the end of the UK lockdown in the No 10 press conference are a waste of a question, we still haven't seen a peak in any of the measurements, and it won't be until cases are so low as to be manageable with testing and contact tracing that any sort of a significant lifting of the restrictions will take place. We are a long way from that.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Nations with Mandatory TB Vaccines Show Fewer Coronavirus Deaths
> 
> from 02/04/2020 Nations with Mandatory TB Vaccines Show Fewer Coronavirus Deaths



Has anything else happened about this part of the story?


----------



## keybored (Apr 10, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Has anything else happened about this part of the story?


This from today.








						How a 100-year-old vaccine for tuberculosis could help fight the novel coronavirus
					

As researchers scramble to find new drugs and vaccines for Covid-19, a vaccine that is more than a century old has piqued researchers' interests. The Bacillus Calmette-Guerin vaccine -- which was first developed to fight off tuberculosis -- is being studied in clinical trials around the world as...




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 10, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Has anything else happened about this part of the story?


I haven't seen any more about it. Both elbows and I were a little unsure about its likely veracity, e.g. I am 55, I had the BCG and I think most/many people of my generation had it. I suspect people older than me may have been more rather than less likely to have had the BCG given TB occurred more in their lifetimes than mine.

That isn't to day that there is no mileage in it, but I haven't seen anything more about it yet .. 

eta, just seen the above & going to read it ..


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I haven't seen any more about it. Both elbows and I were a little unsure about its likely veracity, e.g. I am 55, I had the BCG and I think most/many people of my generation had it. I suspect people older than me may have been more rather than less likely to have had the BCG given TB occurred more in their lifetimes than mine.
> 
> That isn't to day that there is no mileage in it, but I haven't seen anything more about it yet .. off to google for a moment ..


Still got the scar to prove mine. Looking it up, it only stopped for everyone here in 2005. It's those now least likely to die from c19 that haven't had bcg. Sounds like an odd mechanism if it protects societies that still do it - preventing children from transmitting it would be the only explanation I could think of.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 10, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Has anything else happened about this part of the story?


I am more encouraged by blood transfusions from people who have recovered (and have antibodies) to those still infected, in NY they are requesting blood donations from people who can prove they have recovered from covid-19, for this purpose. Well iirc their wording was possibly for this purpose.

detail here COVID-19 in America


----------



## Supine (Apr 10, 2020)

two sheds said:


> One will do



More than one would be great. Billions will need to be produced!


----------



## two sheds (Apr 10, 2020)

Supine said:


> More than one would be great. Billions will need to be produced!



but but but boris only needs one


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 10, 2020)

__





						Galway system: Two patients treated from one ventilator
					





					www.rte.ie
				



*Galway system: Two patients treated from one ventilator*

A medical device company in Galway has designed a new system to enable two patients to be treated safely from one ventilator.

The Inspire Team, based at NUIG, is hoping the system can be replicated globally as an emergency response to ventilator shortages.

Scientists, clinicians and engineers have been collaborating intensively to develop a safe way of sharing a ventilator between two patients.

For the first time they will now be able to monitor the volume of breath going to each individual.


The  system is being made available to health services globally on galwayventshare.com and it has been designed so that it can be replicated using medically approved ventilator equipment.

The design is particularly effective for people with lung disease or respiratory illness.

The new ventilation system is very much a rapid response to life and death situations during Covid-19.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Apr 10, 2020)

teqniq said:


> George Monbiot bang on the money here imo:




Fair enough, and I really hate to defend ScoMo and the LNP, but Australia is actually doing remarkably well during this crisis.


----------



## miss direct (Apr 10, 2020)

We are on 48 hour full lockdown in Turkey. This was announced with two hours notice and led to chaos in some areas, with crowds at shops and people fighting in the street. 

So much for a nice Easter lunch. And don’t understand the rules.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

> Earlier in the day, Dr Fauci told CNN that officials are currently discussing whether to adopt immunity certificates for Americans who have safely survived the coronavirus and have antibodies in their blood to prove it.
> 
> The certificates might "have some merit under certain circumstances", he said, adding that antibody tests would be available next week.


from 10/04/2020 Outbreak 'levelling off' in US, says Dr Fauci


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

WHO press conference 10/04/2020


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> These questions about the end of the UK lockdown in the No 10 press conference are a waste of a question, we still haven't seen a peak in any of the measurements, and it won't be until cases are so low as to be manageable with testing and contact tracing that any sort of a significant lifting of the restrictions will take place. We are a long way from that.



No, I think that we did such a poor and shambolic effort leading in to lockdown, and in many ways almost seemed to arrive in lockdown by chance or accident, that it is exactly now that the government need to start telling us their plan for getting everyone back out. We absolutely failed at contact testing on the way into this mess, and I want to know how that's going to be addressed and improved on. The UK is going to need a shitload of tests, and infrastructure for testing, and a proper plan, none of which are things they've shown evidence of being capable of arranging so far. I think now is exactly the time we should be placing pressure on them to produce a coherent way out of this.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 11, 2020)

One more datapoint for total number of infected: the very latest Imperial modelling suggests the total number of infected in the UK is currently around about 3±1 million (95% credible interval). This being a fairly small percentage of the population indicates (a) how effective lockdown probably has been (see plunge in the model output plot below), but also (b) how herd immunity won't be achieved anytime soon.

(blue bands are infections with 50% and 95% CI; brown bars are reported infections aka cases testing positive).

Which brings us to: various modellers are mulling over social distancing measures being ratcheted up and down repeatedly, on and off for the next 1 to 2 years, with half that time overall spent in a tighter lockdown. (Not entirely surprising since a vaccine exit strategy is most probably at least a year, if not up to two years away).


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 11, 2020)

2hats said:


> *Which brings us to: various modellers are mulling over social distancing measures being ratcheted up and down repeatedly, on and off for the next 1 to 2 years, with half that time overall spent in a tighter lockdown. (Not entirely surprising since a vaccine exit strategy is most probably at least a year, if not up to two years away).*



I can fully understand why ratcheting measures up and down could  work.
But is it even _possible_, policy wise, to insist on up to a year in total of full-on lockdown?
The "on and off" application of it would probably end up provoking greater levels of dissent and disobedience, I'd have thought.
I suppose I'm just querying the practicalities there.

Maybe the questions to ask before deciding on the above policy should be :
How close are we ever going to get in the UK to effective, easily available antibody testing?
And how close (and soon) are we going to get to widespread, general, diagnostic testing?

Once we have some idea of the answers to the latter two questions, and the likely outcomes, we can more easily (?) compare and contrast the merits/demerits of widespread testing compared to the idea of continued on/off lockdown for up to two years ....

Maybe we'd need to combine elements of both together .......


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 11, 2020)

I've also been wondering whether there's going to be some kind of centralized quarantine set up for those entering the UK, as many countries have instituted over the last month. There's not a whole lot of point everyone doing this lockdown if the virus keeps being brought back in. But again, centralized quarantines will require testing in great quantity.


----------



## LDC (Apr 11, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I've also been wondering whether there's going to be some kind of centralized quarantine set up for those entering the UK, as many countries have instituted over the last month. There's not a whole lot of point everyone doing this lockdown if the virus keeps being brought back in. But again, centralized quarantines will require testing in great quantity.



Yes, there's a massive question over managing it internally _within_ countries, but a whole other issue about managing it with travel _between _countries in the medium to long term. I can't see how that is going to return to the previous 'normal' state at any point soon at all. Maybe that will be an area where immunity passports (literally) will be used more.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 11, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Yes, there's a massive question over managing it internally _within_ countries, but a whole other issue about managing it with travel _between _countries in the medium to long term. I can't see how that is going to return to the previous 'normal' state at any point soon at all. Maybe that will be an area where immunity passports (literally) will be used more.



There still seem to be flights going to/coming in from places like New York which I find surprising.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 11, 2020)

two sheds said:


> There still seem to be flights going to/coming in from places like New York which I find surprising.



I find it terrifying, but taken as part of the UK's general lackluster response to this crisis, I don't find it surprising.


----------



## Anju (Apr 11, 2020)

Botswana have put some MPs who were seen to be ignoring their lockdown in enforced quarantine. 

Botswana locks up stubborn MPs who flouted coronavirus quarantine | Africanews


----------



## two sheds (Apr 11, 2020)

Anju said:


> Botswana have put some MPs who were seen to be ignoring their lockdown in enforced quarantine.
> 
> Botswana locks up stubborn MPs who flouted coronavirus quarantine | Africanews



Ooo ooo ooo there's at least one minister here who that could be done to


----------



## Cid (Apr 11, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> Maybe we'd need to combine elements of both together .......



I think this is the inevitable conclusion... It's actually what most of the East Asian countries that have seen success in restricting the disease are doing. E.g Korea has done a mix of regional shutdowns (where the major outbreak with the church happened), combined with some shutdowns of e.g teaching, gyms etc. But bear in mind they were able to limit a great deal of spread early, our new starting point is going to be much harder to predict. So it's not as if test and trace alone is effective. And it also means fairly invasive use of technology.

For me the situation as we have it now, with some phases of softer lockdown, maybe some harder _should_ be sustainable. Problem is it needs a much better campaign of communication and consistent rules. And supplies of PPE, not just for NHS but for shop workers etc (and training).

Kind of hope the optimistic models of widespread infection were right, but seems to be panning out as single digits up to around 15% infection rates. Bearing in mind that the 15% was from a town in Germany that had confirmed transmission at a carnival (Gangelt study).


----------



## Anju (Apr 11, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Ooo ooo ooo there's at least one minister here who that could be done to



For their own and our safety I was thinking just lock up the whole cabinet.


----------



## little_legs (Apr 11, 2020)




----------



## Cid (Apr 11, 2020)

Anju said:


> For their own and our safety I was thinking just lock up the whole cabinet.



I think Pickman's model is already preparing the cruise ship to Grytviken. Though I must say I'm not sure what he has against the current 3 summer residents, or the penguins.


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 11, 2020)

Cid said:


> I think Pickman's model is already preparing the cruise ship to Grytviken. Though I must say I'm not sure what he has against the current 3 summer residents, or the penguins.


The exodus of former people to South georgia has been delayed by coronavirus, which is holding up tests on former people penguin pellets


----------



## teqniq (Apr 11, 2020)

How the fuck are these clowns still in tenure? Professor Hayward is also known for being a denialist of the Assad regimes's use of chemical weapons.


----------



## Cid (Apr 11, 2020)

teqniq said:


> How the fuck are these clowns still in tenure? Professor Hayward is also known for being a denialist of the Assad regimes's use of chemical weapons.
> 
> 
> View attachment 206025



I was going to say academics working in very specific areas of scientific research do sometimes have something of a blind spot in other areas. But the man seems to be a professor in environmental politics, fuck him off pronto.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> No, I think that we did such a poor and shambolic effort leading in to lockdown, and in many ways almost seemed to arrive in lockdown by chance or accident, that it is exactly now that the government need to start telling us their plan for getting everyone back out. We absolutely failed at contact testing on the way into this mess, and I want to know how that's going to be addressed and improved on. The UK is going to need a shitload of tests, and infrastructure for testing, and a proper plan, none of which are things they've shown evidence of being capable of arranging so far. I think now is exactly the time we should be placing pressure on them to produce a coherent way out of this.


I think they know what conditions are required to end lockdown, no new cases - for a period, and if the general public and media are honest we already know that. Government in their press conferences want to maintain people's focus on the current instructions and not permit us to get distracted. I think it was a mistake of Johnson's saying they would review lockdown in 3 weeks. It gave false hope. There was never any chance lockdown would be lifted in 3 weeks. With nearly 1,000 daily deaths our epidemic is still rampant. 

On testing, yes they were shambolic, Hancock has now spoken at length about how he plans to expand testing to 100,000 per day by the end of the month. They are also going to need a small army of people to conduct contact tracing once lockdown is lifted, My feeling is that this is still a month or two off.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 11, 2020)

weltweit you can't stay in lockdown until you have zero new cases.   That's why I'm talking about having lots and lots of tests available. You absolutely have to get that number manageably low so that you can start tracking and dealing with _every single case_, but zero is an unrealistic number.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> weltweit you can't stay in lockdown until you have zero new cases.   That's why I'm talking about having lots and lots of tests available. You absolutely have to get that number manageably low so that you can start tracking and dealing with _every single case_, but zero is an unrealistic number.


But Yu_Gi_Oh isn't that what Wuhan has done, they now have no community transmission cases and are now slowly lifting the shutdown, but it isn't yet opened for everyone unless I am mistaken?


----------



## Cid (Apr 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> But Yu_Gi_Oh isn't that what Wuhan has done, they now have no community transmission cases and are now slowly lifting the shutdown, but it isn't yet opened for everyone unless I am mistaken?



Well a) we have no idea whether it will be effective once they lift lockdown. And b) China is an authoritarian state built on a society which still has extensive adherence to Confucian ideals of respect for seniority. And its administration lends itself very well to closing down specific districts and restricting travel.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> But Yu_Gi_Oh isn't that what Wuhan has done, they now have no community transmission cases and are now slowly lifting the shutdown, but it isn't yet opened for everyone unless I am mistaken?



Are you trying to liken the entirety of the UK to Wuhan? Anyway, the last big push for Wuhan involved a shit load of testing to get them out of lockdown. They didn't just sit there until no one said they felt sick any more. Wuhan still has the occasional new case anyway. China still has new cases. South Korea has cases. You don't need to be in a full lockdown if your cases are below are certain threshold and you have a good idea about the history of those cases.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 11, 2020)

Cid said:


> Well a) we have no idea whether it will be effective once they lift lockdown. And b) China is an authoritarian state built on a society which still has extensive adherence to Confucian ideals of respect for seniority. And its administration lends itself very well to closing down specific districts and restricting travel.



But they're not just lifting the lockdown and crossing their fingers. China has moved into a mode closer to South Korea's now. This is what I want for the UK. We're not going to get there without a lot of tests and a good system.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

Cid said:


> Well a) we have no idea whether it will be effective once they lift lockdown. And b) China is an authoritarian state built on a society which still has extensive adherence to Confucian ideals of respect for seniority. And its administration lends itself very well to closing down specific districts and restricting travel.


Yes, UK is different, but the virus is the same .. I just think that when nearly 1,000 people are dying each day is not the right time to be discussing when and or how the lockdown could be lifted.. 


Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Are you trying to liken the entirety of the UK to Wuhan? Anyway, the last big push for Wuhan involved a shit load of testing to get them out of lockdown. They didn't just sit there until no one said they felt sick any more. Wuhan still has the occasional new case anyway. China still has new cases. South Korea has cases. You don't need to be in a full lockdown if your cases are below are certain threshold and you have a good idea about the history of those cases.


I would compare greater London to Wuhan, similar large conurbations, similar populations and extensive infections. According to reports I have read the majority of new cases in China are now incoming travelers.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes, UK is different, but the virus is the same .. I just think that when nearly 1,000 people are dying each day is not the right time to be discussing when and or how the lockdown could be lifted..



Right. So, out of respect for the people dying, we shouldn't discuss this? Is that really what you're saying? Fine.


----------



## Doodler (Apr 11, 2020)

teqniq said:


> How the fuck are these clowns still in tenure? Professor Hayward is also known for being a denialist of the Assad regimes's use of chemical weapons.
> 
> 
> View attachment 206025



A bioweapon that predominantly targets older, less healthy people and leaves the young and fit almost unscathed. A very interesting and unusual weapon concept (fucking idiots).


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> But they're not just lifting the lockdown and crossing their fingers. China has moved into a mode closer to South Korea's now. This is what I want for the UK. We're not going to get there without a lot of tests and a good system.


I agree with that, we wait to see if Hancock's 100,000 daily test materialise by the end of the month and will need probably much more than that to test trace isolate after lockdown is lifted. Anyhow I expect it will be lifted gradually. Where will the contact tracing army come from I wonder?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Right. So, out of respect for the people dying, we shouldn't discuss this? Is that really what you're saying? Fine.


No I didn't mean out of respect for those dying though that could be an issue. I just meant that when we are at the stage where more than 900 people died yesterday and the day before, we are actually quite a long way from realistically considering lifting the lockdown.  Discuss it by all means!


----------



## Cid (Apr 11, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> But they're not just lifting the lockdown and crossing their fingers. China has moved into a mode closer to South Korea's now. This is what I want for the UK. We're not going to get there without a lot of tests and a good system.



Good to hear... I need to have a proper chat with friends there sometime. I know my best friend is back to teaching (uni) soon, but that’s Nanjing which never had a high case load iirc. Also she’s quite... traditional in some odd ways. So I’m not quite sure how her adherence to policy reflects actual policy.


----------



## Cid (Apr 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> No I didn't mean out of respect for those dying though that could be an issue. I just meant that when we are at the stage where more than 900 people died yesterday and the day before, we are actually quite a long way from realistically considering lifting the lockdown.  Discuss it by all means!



Yeah, I think I get what you mean - there’s a lot of talk in the press about lockdown being lifted, discussing how long it will be etc. But not much saying it might be a practical reality for the next year, to varying levels.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Right. So, out of respect for the people dying, we shouldn't discuss this? Is that really what you're saying? Fine.


You might be interested to see this: Covid19 UK News, science and policy from 16/03/2020 advice referred to by UK SAGE (scientific advisary group for emergencies) which say that lockdown could be being switched on and off repeatedly for as much as a year in order to subdue infections. 

I don't know if events have caused them to revise their statements since then, but at that point the prognosis seemed particularly bleak.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 11, 2020)

No prizes for guessing the UK's stance on this:









						France, Germany join group of 10 EU countries calling for green recovery
					

Paris and Berlin have added their names to a growing list of EU capitals asking for the European Green Deal to be placed at the heart of the EU’s post-pandemic recovery plan.




					www.euractiv.com


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Apr 11, 2020)

From next Thursday (a month after lock down) masks and face coverings will be mandatory when walking around in public. 

I think the government are hoping to ease the measures soon with this being the final push. 

It's Easter, but church congregation restrictions are still in place (no more than 5 per congregation) family gatherings are still banned. We will see how many stick to the rules. With Poland being very Catholic, and Easter being the most important day in the church Calender, we will see what will happen. 

Everyone is pretty sick of it. It's been 4 weeks so far. 

I miss my friends.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 11, 2020)

link?


----------



## prunus (Apr 11, 2020)

teqniq said:


> link?



It’s Poland I think. You may still want a link of course.


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes, UK is different, but the virus is the same .. I just think that when nearly 1,000 people are dying each day is not the right time to be discussing when and or how the lockdown could be lifted..
> 
> I would compare greater London to Wuhan, similar large conurbations, similar populations and extensive infections. According to reports I have read the majority of new cases in China are now incoming travelers.



I think population size is about where the similarities end - Wuhan was fully locked down, with travel in and out halted, at a time when the whole of China had less than 1% as many confirmed coronavirus cases as the UK does now. Contacts were extensively traced and the lockdown was enforced by an authoritarian state with world-leading facial recognition technology, etc. and zero respect for human rights.

In London, there are thousands upon thousands of cases and trains out are leaving every few minutes.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 11, 2020)

prunus Aah ok, thanks.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Apr 11, 2020)

teqniq said:


> link?



You'll have to stick it in Google translate... 










						Obowiązek zasłaniania ust i nosa już wkrótce, a zasady bezpieczeństwa na dłużej - Koronawirus: informacje i zalecenia - Portal Gov.pl
					

Od 16 kwietnia (czwartek) każda osoba na ulicy będzie miała obowiązek zasłaniania ust i nosa. Zmianie ulegną także terminy matur i egzaminu ósmoklasisty. Oprócz tego przedłużamy obowiązywanie wszystkich dotychczasowych zasad bezpieczeństwa. To oznacza, że ograniczenia w przemieszczaniu się, czy...




					www.gov.pl


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Apr 11, 2020)

Honestly I have no idea why the UK are not doing the same, and I'm surprised that the general public aren't fucking fuming with their government 

Poland still don't have nearly enough tests, but at least they are getting to a point where the day on day increases are in single digit percentages rather than double.

Restrictive measures now means easier testing and tracing later. Especially now that masks and face coverings are going to be mandatory.

I do urge people to Google translate the link to see the difference between UK restrictions and Poland restrictions.

I'm honestly baffled.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I think population size is about where the similarities end - Wuhan was fully locked down, with travel in and out halted, at a time when the whole of China had less than 1% as many confirmed coronavirus cases as the UK does now.


I can remember calling for Greater London to be isolated inside the M25 early on but the cases spread across the UK such that other hot spots appeared equally as dangerous and such a suggestion then just seemed silly. 



Yossarian said:


> Contacts were extensively traced and the lockdown was enforced by an authoritarian state with world-leading facial recognition technology, etc. and zero respect for human rights.



Yes they have a very different regime and here government seemed very loath to institute a lockdown despite that it was patently necessary. We will need mass testing contact tracing and compulsory isolation if we are to lift the lockdown at some point and yes as Yu_Gi_Oh says, a system more like South Korea is desireable. 



Yossarian said:


> In London, there are thousands upon thousands of cases and trains out are leaving every few minutes.


Hopefully without too many passengers on them though!


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

Coronavirus hits remote Amazon tribe in Brazil as 15-year-old boy dies with COVID-19


> Alvanei Xirixan died in intensive care in the main hospital of Boa Vista, capital of Roraima state, where he was being treated for COVID-19, according to local indigenous health service Dsei.
> ..
> Coronavirus could have a devastating impact on Brazil's 850,000 indigenous people, who are vulnerable to external diseases and do not have quick access to proper medical care, health experts and anthropologists have warned.





> ..
> Four members of the Kokama tribe, close to Colombia and Peru, have also been infected after a doctor who worked with them tested positive for coronavirus.
> ..
> Brazil's right-wing president Jair Bolsonaro has ignored social distancing advice


from 11/04/2020 Coronavirus hits remote Amazon tribe in Brazil as 15-year-old boy dies with COVID-19


----------



## elbows (Apr 11, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> I can fully understand why ratcheting measures up and down could  work.
> But is it even _possible_, policy wise, to insist on up to a year in total of full-on lockdown?
> The "on and off" application of it would probably end up provoking greater levels of dissent and disobedience, I'd have thought.
> I suppose I'm just querying the practicalities there.
> ...



No country is going to consider a years full lockdown to be viable. The only way that would change is if all other options are shown to be a disaster, in the same way that even short but draconian lockdowns were not considered to be compatible with some nations until they were left with little choice but to do them anyway.

A mixed solution is the most likely for the medium term. And probably plenty of fiddling around with the details and boundaries of lockdown measures, for both psychological and economic reasons. eg Italy has extended its lockdown again, but found a few areas they were prepared to relax. Thats probably partly what the new debate about the public wearing masks is largely about - tradeoffs. Its a battle to keep the rate of infection below a certain level, so its quite likely they are trying to balance the increase in infections that come from specific relaxations, with the decrease that might be expected from making people wear masks. 

The UK's epidemic is a bit behind some others, so we have the luxury of learning at least a few weeks worth of reality from some other countries before we make policy decisions. The questions you pose are part of it, even though some of them may need to be modified to take into account actual UK capacity for tests, along with things like contact tracing systems. And when it comes to antibody stuff, its not just a question of mass testing availability, but also the surveys that will be used to get a better sense of what propportion of the population have already had the disease. Again, there will be clues from other countries and we have now seen a few more of these recently, although I would not yet say that picture has been firmed up, and I would expect regional variation.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

Coronavirus: Brazil's president rejects COVID-19 as a 'little flu' and ignores distancing rules


> The 65-year-old right-wing leader has compared COVID-19 to a "little flu" and publicly attacked state governors in his country who have introduced quarantine measures.
> 
> On Friday, a national holiday in Brazil, Mr Bolsonaro ignored social distancing guidelines as he went to a military hospital, before stopping at a pharmacy and then visiting one of his sons in a residential building.


from 11/04/2020 Coronavirus: Brazil's president rejects COVID-19 as a 'little flu' and ignores distancing rules


----------



## Doodler (Apr 11, 2020)

Hard to think of a worse national leader at the moment than Bolsonaro. Even Kim Jong-un seems preferable.


----------



## editor (Apr 11, 2020)

This is well worth a read



> What is about to be unleashed on American society will be the greatest campaign ever created to get you to feel normal again. It will come from brands, it will come from government, it will even come from each other, and it will come from the left and from the right. We will do anything, spend anything, believe anything, just so we can take away how horribly uncomfortable all of this feels. And on top of that, just to turn the screw that much more, will be the only effort even greater: the all-out blitz to make you believe you never saw what you saw. The air wasn’t really cleaner; those images were fake. The hospitals weren’t really a war zone; those stories were hyperbole. The numbers were not that high; the press is lying. You didn’t see people in masks standing in the rain risking their lives to vote. Not in America. You didn’t see the leader of the free world push an unproven miracle drug like a late-night infomercial salesman. That was a crisis update. You didn’t see homeless people dead on the street. You didn’t see inequality. You didn’t see indifference. You didn’t see utter failure of leadership and systems. But you did. And so we are about to be gaslit in a truly unprecedented way. It starts with a check for $1,200 — _don’t say I never gave you anything _— and then it will be so big that it will be bigly. And it will be a one-two punch from both big business and the big white house — inextricably intertwined now more than ever and being led by, as our luck would have it, a Marketer-in-Chief. Business and government are about to band together to knock us unconscious again. It will be funded like no other operation in our lifetimes. It will be fast. It will be furious. And it will be overwhelming. The Great American Return to Normal is coming.


----------



## T & P (Apr 11, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Meanwhile also in France:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting demographics in that travelling party. Seven men in their 40s and 50s, and three women in their 20s. I’m sure they are the daughters or nieces of some of the men, and this was just a big family holiday.


----------



## Ax^ (Apr 11, 2020)

and no one on board that plane voted for the Tory party in the last election


----------



## Anju (Apr 11, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I think population size is about where the similarities end - Wuhan was fully locked down, with travel in and out halted, at a time when the whole of China had less than 1% as many confirmed coronavirus cases as the UK does now. Contacts were extensively traced and the lockdown was enforced by an authoritarian state with world-leading facial recognition technology, etc. and zero respect for human rights.
> 
> In London, there are thousands upon thousands of cases and trains out are leaving every few minutes.



I'm finding it difficult to see how contact tracing would work in London. How do you deal with someone traveling by train then tube, working in a big office with a trip out at lunchtime to grab a sandwich. They are going to have had contact with hundreds of people.


----------



## rekil (Apr 11, 2020)

T & P said:


> Interesting demographics in that travelling party. Seven men in their 40s and 50s, and three women in their 20s. I’m sure they are the daughters or nieces of some of the men, and this was just a big family holiday.


There'll be a 'sex worker service users - the invisible victims - how are they coping' article in the guardian.


----------



## Sue (Apr 11, 2020)

rekil said:


> There'll be a 'sex worker service users - the invisible victims - how are they coping' article in the guardian.


Thought and prayers etc.


----------



## treelover (Apr 11, 2020)

teqniq said:


> How the fuck are these clowns still in tenure? Professor Hayward is also known for being a denialist of the Assad regimes's use of chemical weapons.
> 
> 
> View attachment 206025



I think Robinson was at Sheffield and his contract not renewed.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

Anju said:


> I'm finding it difficult to see how contact tracing would work in London. How do you deal with someone traveling by train then tube, working in a big office with a trip out at lunchtime to grab a sandwich. They are going to have had contact with hundreds of people.


Indeed in some cases it will be very difficult - but aside from months long lockdown until a vaccine is proven we don't have so many options.

And this is an issue for every country, South Korea reported that for their first 30 cases they contact traced them quite sensibly and without great drama, but case 31 proved to be a dramatic change, case 31 was a super spreader, they visited people in hospital, went to church more than once and went basically all over the place spreading the virus as they went. Quite quickly after they identified case 31 they found they were then dealing with not 31 cases but more than 2,000.


----------



## Supine (Apr 11, 2020)




----------



## zahir (Apr 11, 2020)

Some praise for the way Greece has dealt with it.









						Greece Shows How to Handle the Crisis
					

The government imposed severe social distancing measures much earlier than others.




					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

More on South Korea 

Why is South Korea beating coronavirus? Its citizens hold the state to account


> The widely lauded policy of testing, tracing and treating has its roots in Koreans’ expectation of high-quality public services
> ..





> Korean politics since the 1990s can thus be characterised as a period during which citizens became increasingly emboldened in their relationship with the state, forcing governments to take their wellbeing seriously. One area that this has been the most conspicuous is in public transportation, energy and healthcare. For the average person, these are everyday services that all citizens have the right to enjoy, and which are paid for by taxpayers’ money.
> ..





> The coronavirus crisis plunging Europe into chaos has shattered this idealised image. As far as Koreans are concerned, this has been a vindication of a supposed “Korean model” which they have fought for over many years. It is unlikely that it will go away anytime soon.


from 11/04/2020 Why is South Korea beating coronavirus? Its citizens hold the state to account | Tae Hoon Kim

Lessons from South Korea


> South Korea experienced a surge of patients in mid-February largely due to a mass infection in a big church in the south-east region. Korea responded swiftly to the epidemic and has managed to slow the widespread COVID-19 infection.
> ..
> Transparent communication was essential as it helped the public fully trust the government and comply with government recommendations.
> ..





> Most people voluntarily followed government recommendations on social distancing, wearing masks and hand washing, even without major restrictive measures. There was no stockpiling by consumers.
> ..
> The government did not implement severe restrictive measures, such as lockdowns. There has been no ban on the entry of air travelers from specific countries or regions, except Hubei, China.
> ..





> Instead of very restrictive measures, a policy of extensive tracing was adopted. When a person tests positive, all paths are traced to check where and when a patient visited. This includes checking visited restaurants or modes of transportation (including specific bus or subway routes and lines). The government uses all types of information, such as credit card payment, mobile phones, and closed channel cameras. Text messages are then sent by local and district government to all residents, encouraging those who were exposed to the contacts to self-isolate or get tested, contributing to the reduction of infection.





> ..
> The extensive tracing of contacts can be controversial from a privacy perspective. Businesses may be negatively impacted when they lose customers due to reports that a positive COVID-19 patient has visited a local restaurant or shop. However, the contact tracing was, and still is, widely supported by the public.





> ..
> The government adopted mass testing for early detection. At the end of January, the government met with test kit producers and agreed on the need to produce the kit rapidly. Test kits were made available in early February thanks to a fast-track approval. In about six weeks, more than 300,000 people were tested.


from 31/03/2020 COVID-19: Lessons from South Korea

There is a lot more in this article about how South Korea has behaved in terms of response to covid-19 and if you are interested in how they have achieved their results so far it is worth a read.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> More on South Korea
> 
> Why is South Korea beating coronavirus? Its citizens hold the state to account
> 
> ...


Outstanding piece, that slays a brigade of lazy myths about South Korea, including some extremely dubious, borderline-Orientalist assertions about "culture".

For me, this quote's key: "Korean politics since the 1990s can thus be characterised as a period during which citizens became increasingly emboldened in their relationship with the state, forcing governments to take their wellbeing seriously."

As the article so rightly says, we've become complacent and have started to abandon values that Koreans, with their relatively recent experience of dictatorship, hold dear. We need some damn humility, and a willingness to learn from others.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 11, 2020)

After Azrael's post here Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion about New Zealand I thought I might find some articles. 

This seems a government page with status of programs like their lockdown and various instructions: Home

Elimination: what New Zealand's coronavirus response can teach the world


> New Zealand now appears to be the only “western” nation following an articulated elimination strategy with the goal of completely ending transmission of Covid-19 within its borders.
> ..
> Most cases are now returning travellers, who are safely quarantined at the borders, and the few remaining case clusters in the community are being traced and further spread stamped out. But it is far too soon to claim victory, and the country is remaining under an intense lockdown to support the elimination effort.





> ..
> On 23 March New Zealand committed to an elimination strategy. Both countries had relatively low case numbers at that time: New Zealand had reported 102 cases and no deaths and Australia had reported 1396 cases and 10 deaths. On that day the prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, announced that New Zealand was going to rapidly escalate levels of physical distancing and travel restrictions, reaching the level of a full national lockdown on 26 March (level four on the alert scale).





> ..
> This period gave us much needed time to ramp up the critical measures required for elimination to work (more rigorous quarantine at the borders, expanded testing and contact tracing, and additional surveillance measures to provide assurance for when elimination had been achieved).
> ..





> One critical success factor that is, unfortunately, harder to guarantee is high-quality political leadership. The brilliant, decisive and humane leadership of Ardern was instrumental in New Zealand’s rapid change in direction with its response to Covid-19 and the remarkably efficient implementation of the elimination strategy.


from 10/04/2020 Elimination: what New Zealand's coronavirus response can teach the world | Michael Baker and Nick Wilson

Again a large article, worth reading, snippets above are only a bit of it.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 11, 2020)

If a series of countries succeed in domestic elimination, it's at least conceivable that rigid 14 day quarantine for new arrivals could, with the greatest possible caution, be reconsidered. There are no guarantees, but fighting this virus with all we have is, is nothing else, a moral imperative.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

Azrael said:


> If a series of countries succeed in domestic elimination, it's at least conceivable that rigid 14 day quarantine for new arrivals could, with the greatest possible caution, be reconsidered. There are no guarantees, but fighting this virus with all we have is, is nothing else, a moral imperative.


I can recall calling for bans on inward travel from hot spots early in UKs experience with the virus, flights were still arriving from China at that stage which seemed crazy to me. Then there were some flights that ended up in quarantine, I don't recall the details. Presently I imagine there might be some to none flights arriving because most airlines have closed. I assume there are no incoming flights now? 

Well China seems to have now achieved almost elimination.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I can recall calling for bans on inward travel from hot spots early in UKs experience with the virus, flights were still arriving from China at that stage which seemed crazy to me. Then there were some flights that ended up in quarantine, I don't recall the details. Presently I imagine there might be some to none flights arriving because most airlines have closed. I assume there are no incoming flights now?
> 
> Well China seems to have now achieved almost elimination.



I checked Virgin Airlines today and they're selling returns to New York. Not sure how full the planes were but they were sold out for a few days as I recall.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I can recall calling for bans on inward travel from hot spots early in UKs experience with the virus, flights were still arriving from China at that stage which seemed crazy to me. Then there were some flights that ended up in quarantine, I don't recall the details. Presently I imagine there might be some to none flights arriving because most airlines have closed. I assume there are no incoming flights now?
> 
> Well China seems to have now achieved almost elimination.


The "herd immunity" insanity was, we now know, at its height in Whitehall at this time, which explains Britain's gross negligence; but when it comes to flight bans, the WHO, admirable in many respects in its response to the coronavirus, hasn't covered itself in glory, recommending against them for too long. Taiwan didn't mess around, and flights were restricted early. All the countries that've avoided epidemics appear to've included travel restrictions in their battery of measures.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

I am sure there could be circumstances herd immunity might be viable, but this virus isn't one of them. 

I saw WHO not arguing for travel shutdown. I suspect like UK Gov they are influenced by practical and or economic arguments and could see the travel industry would be decimated. WHO current guidelines on masks I believe is based on the practical angle that people can't get them, more than that they aren't effective which they patently are. Masks protect others from the wearer and the wearer from others. Why otherwise would healthcare workers on covid-19 wards all wear masks! 

Travel restrictions I agree with but the UK travel industry is massive and again I suspect the UK government wanted to avoid mandating closures to airports etc .. instead they preferred airlines to shut down on their own accord. I wonder if that way government is less liable for compensation. Cynical?


----------



## Azrael (Apr 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am sure there could be circumstances herd immunity might be viable, but this virus isn't one of them.
> 
> I saw WHO not arguing for travel shutdown. I suspect like UK Gov they are influenced by practical and or economic arguments and could see the travel industry would be decimated. WHO current guidelines on masks I believe is based on the practical angle that people can't get them, more than that they aren't effective which they patently are. Masks protect others from the wearer and the wearer from others. Why otherwise would healthcare workers on covid-19 wards all wear masks!
> 
> Travel restrictions I agree with but the UK travel industry is massive and again I suspect the UK government wanted to avoid mandating closures to airports etc .. instead they preferred airlines to shut down on their own accord. I wonder if that way government is less liable for compensation. Cynical?


Unless it's destroyed by an international effort to achieve elimination via test-trace-isolate methods (which is what did for SARS, but its successor has, of course, spread massively further), herd immunity in its proper sense of vaccination being high enough to so starve SARS-CoV-2 of hosts that it can't reach the unvaccinated will be essential to defeating it. The phrase is so toxic they'll probably have to call it someone else now. Answers on a postcard.

Also have my suspicions about airlines' undue influence, although like so much in this pandemic, it's proven ruinously self-defeating. If they'd gotten behind an international flight ban right at the start, who knows how much the coronavirus' spread could've been limited, and how much earlier they could've started flying again. As it is, many will go under.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Unless it's destroyed by an international effort to achieve elimination via test-trace-isolate methods (which is what did for SARS, but its successor has, of course, spread massively further), herd immunity in its proper sense of vaccination being high enough to so starve SARS-CoV-2 of hosts that it can't reach the unvaccinated will be essential to defeating it. The phrase is so toxic they'll probably have to call it someone else now. Answers on a postcard.


Vaccines are apparently, if successful, 18 months away, I posted a snippet from a paper referenced by SAGE earlier which said they expected lockdown to continue perhaps on and off for at least a year with perhaps the overall duration of half of that year in a tight lockdown. I don't know if they have revised their thinking since, it was a pdf from mid March iirc.



Azrael said:


> Also have my suspicions about airlines' undue influence, although like so much in this pandemic, it's proven ruinously self-defeating. If they'd gotten behind an international flight ban right at the start, who knows how much the coronavirus' spread could've been limited, and how much earlier they could've started flying again. As it is, many will go under.


I think Boris's government was loath to suppress business in any way until there really was no alternative. I recall people saying that we were doing really well compared to China, then compared to Italy etc etc .. they didn't have the forsight to see what was coming nor the stomach for the hard medicine that needed doling out to save lives.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 12, 2020)

The advisors have since admitted that they didn't plug a South Korea-style test-trace-isolate programme into their models, as Britain lacked the required testing infrastructure, not least because testing was centralized, instead of, like Germany, employing university and private labs.

There's been reports of researchers being optimistic of a vaccine by the Autumn, but we'll see. Wouldn't be surprised to see one earlier than 18 months -- amazing what you can do with relaxed regulations and near-unlimited resources -- but can't be relied on. Even if SARS-CoV-2 can't be eradicated without a vaccine, aggressive elimination programmes could both save Iives, and make vaccination much easier when one arrives.

The underlying principle with both vaccination and quarantine's the same: destroy a virus in the general population by starving it of hosts. The two are, ultimately, facets of the same strategy, and one another's constant allies.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

Azrael said:


> The advisors have since admitted that they didn't plug a South Korea-style test-trace-isolate programme into their models, as Britain lacked the required testing infrastructure, not least because testing was centralized, instead of, like Germany, employing university and private labs.


Interesting and true I am sure. Back in 2016 there was a simulation exercise (I forget the name) for emergency services in which a viral epidemic was simulated and lessons for example we don't have enough ventilators were learnt (though not acted on). It seems limited testing could / should have been flagged up back then? I will see if I can find it again.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

Azrael said:


> There's been reports of researchers being optimistic of a vaccine by the Autumn, but we'll see. Wouldn't be surprised to see one earlier than 18 months -- amazing what you can do with relaxed regulations and near-unlimited resources -- but can't be relied on. Even if SARS-CoV-2 can't be erradicated without a vaccine, aggressive elimination programmes could both save Iives, and make vaccination much easier when one arrives.


Yes it is true, resources are being thrown at it, I imagine a successful company / consortia will make humongous profits if their vaccine gets approved.


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 12, 2020)

This is an interesting article that shows Walmart's analysis of peoples weekly buying habits broken down by product.









						Walmart CEO says we're in the 'hair colour' phase of panic buying
					

Hair clippers and hair dye are flying off shelves, according to the CEO of Walmart.



					www.ctvnews.ca
				




I would have thought that the run on toilet paper happened in week number one, but it was not.


----------



## Dogsauce (Apr 12, 2020)

Azrael said:


> The advisors have since admitted that they didn't plug a South Korea-style test-trace-isolate programme into their models, as Britain lacked the required testing infrastructure, not least because testing was centralized, instead of, like Germany, employing university and private labs.
> 
> There's been reports of researchers being optimistic of a vaccine by the Autumn, but we'll see. Wouldn't be surprised to see one earlier than 18 months -- amazing what you can do with relaxed regulations and near-unlimited resources -- but can't be relied on. Even if SARS-CoV-2 can't be eradicated without a vaccine, aggressive elimination programmes could both save Iives, and make vaccination much easier when one arrives.
> 
> The underlying principle with both vaccination and quarantine's the same: destroy a virus in the general population by starving it of hosts. The two are, ultimately, facets of the same strategy, and one another's constant allies.



The other thing that could lead to relaxation of the rules might be an improvement in the survival rate, achieved through refining clinical techniques for treatment and perhaps discovering beneficial antivirals. There’s probably a death rate that is ‘acceptable’ to society as with flu etc. (and I suspect quite a higher figure acceptable to the current government).  Death rate may also tail off a little as the proportion of vulnerable victims available to it in society declines.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

spring-peeper that article explains why 7dayshop.com is sold out of men's grooming products atm grr


----------



## Cid (Apr 12, 2020)

Dogsauce said:


> The other thing that could lead to relaxation of the rules might be an improvement in the survival rate, achieved through refining clinical techniques for treatment and perhaps discovering beneficial antivirals. There’s probably a death rate that is ‘acceptable’ to society as with flu etc. (and I suspect quite a higher figure acceptable to the current government).  Death rate may also tail off a little as the proportion of vulnerable victims available to it in society declines.



Hospitalisation rate is always going to be a problem though. Particularly if we see a summer dip, then winter rebound alongside seasonal flu.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 12, 2020)

Dogsauce said:


> The other thing that could lead to relaxation of the rules might be an improvement in the survival rate, achieved through refining clinical techniques for treatment and perhaps discovering beneficial antivirals. There’s probably a death rate that is ‘acceptable’ to society as with flu etc. (and I suspect quite a higher figure acceptable to the current government).  Death rate may also tail off a little as the proportion of vulnerable victims available to it in society declines.


Drugs can certainly lower the death rate, but they're not an alternative to elimination, they're a tool to limit the losses while we get there. Even the best antivirals will fail all too often, or cases will be missed until after their window of opportunity is closed. However much drugs limit its damage this coronavirus remains a deadly SARS infection that can't be allowed to spread.

Or the concise version: prevention beats cure.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 12, 2020)

Cid said:


> Hospitalisation rate is always going to be a problem though. Particularly if we see a summer dip, then winter rebound alongside seasonal flu.


Absolutely.

Even if we went this route (reliant on antivirals of amazing effectiveness becoming rapidly available), a massive testing and tracing regime would be needed to catch cases early enough for antivirals to work. In which case, you'd be breaking chains of transmission, and running a de facto elimination strategy regardless of intent.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 12, 2020)

Azrael said:


> and running a de facto elimination strategy regardless of intent.



I feel a bit uneasy about suggesting this with a tory government in power.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 12, 2020)

Could be worse, said we should "exterminate" the virus a few weeks back. 

(Although "seek, locate, destroy" is a helluva lot catchier than test-trace-isolate.)


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 12, 2020)

Azrael said:


> The advisors have since admitted that they didn't plug a South Korea-style test-trace-isolate programme into their models, as Britain lacked the required testing infrastructure, not least because testing was centralized, instead of, like Germany, employing university and private labs.


Presumably Hancock's target of 100,000 per day by the end of the month involves decentralising the system? I've not read anything about how exactly he expects to achieve this. Meanwhile, Germany's target for that point is 200,000 per day, fwiw. And they'll probably hit theirs.

But ultimately that has to be the key to ending this. It's not a coincidence that it is countries that have been aggressively testing that are the first to announce plans to ease lockdown - Austria this week, Switzerland in two weeks' time. You need to have a test-trace-isolate system in place _before_ easing lockdown, surely. UK is going to be last to the party again, by the looks of things.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

Assuming UK does not embrace a technical solution human tracing test and isolation will have to be used and my understanding is that it takes many tens of thousands of tracers to be effective with a large population. Luckily there are plenty of unemployed, furloughed and the army is available, so it could be done with a massive effort.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Assuming UK does not embrace a technical solution human tracing test and isolation will have to be used and my understanding is that it takes many tens of thousands of tracers to be effective with a large population. Luckily there are plenty of unemployed, furloughed and the army is available, so it could be done with a massive effort.


It's not just about finding people. It's also about supporting them once they have been found. That's where there is the possibility of adapting, rather than copying, the SK system. You trace and isolate, then you provide daily _support_ to those in isolation. More of a carrot than a stick measure wrt enforcing quarantine. If the army is to get involved, they need to take off their uniforms. This is not a military emergency, and I for one do not want to see it becoming one. I don't want soldiers at my door, thankyou.

It will get ugly. We're already seeing petty, vindictive people reporting all kinds of minor infractions on lockdown. Multiply that by 10 when we have an isolation programme in place. This shit is going to leave scars.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> It's not just about finding people. It's also about supporting them once they have been found. That's where there is the possibility of adapting, rather than copying, the SK system. You trace and isolate, then you provide daily _support_ to those in isolation. More of a carrot than a stick measure wrt enforcing quarantine. If the army is to get involved, they need to take off their uniforms. This is not a military emergency, and I for one do not want to see it becoming one. I don't want soldiers at my door, thankyou.


Interesting. Me I would prefer army in uniform contact tracing with me than I would plod in their uniforms!


----------



## Azrael (Apr 12, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> It's not just about finding people. It's also about supporting them once they have been found. That's where there is the possibility of adapting, rather than copying, the SK system. You trace and isolate, then you provide daily _support_ to those in isolation. More of a carrot than a stick measure wrt enforcing quarantine. If the army is to get involved, they need to take off their uniforms. This is not a military emergency, and I for one do not want to see it becoming one. I don't want soldiers at my door, thankyou.
> 
> It will get ugly. We're already seeing petty, vindictive people reporting all kinds of minor infractions on lockdown. Multiply that by 10 when we have an isolation programme in place. This shit is going to leave scars.


I'd like to see all of this, including isolation, to be as minimally coercive as possible. As you say, a crucial component of finding people is helping them. Germany not only isolates, but ensures that people's symptoms are monitored, and an ambulance sent if there's any concerns about sudden deterioration. Exactly the kind of proactive and compassionate approach we need.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Interesting. Me I would prefer army in uniform contact tracing with me than I would plod in their uniforms!


It doesn't have to be either. This is not a criminal matter, or doesn't have to be be. Just as people have very largely voluntarily supported social distancing, so the majority of those told to quarantine will want to comply. Given the correct support, they should be able to comply.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> It doesn't have to be either. This is not a criminal matter, or doesn't have to be be. Just as people have very largely voluntarily supported social distancing, so the majority of those told to quarantine will want to comply. Given the correct support, they should be able to comply.


I am afraid I have seen examples of people either through stupidity or wanton disobedience who have flouted the current instructions. One woman who returned from northern Italy a few weeks ago and was told to self isolate for 14 days. She didn't go to work but she attempted to continue going to her book / reading group because that was somehow different, also people in a house with a member with suspected covid-19 going to the shops despite that they should all have been fully isolating for 14 days. In this case I think they were muddling the advice because visits to the shops are permitted for those on lockdown but not for those with a suspected case of covid-19. 

Some level of checking and enforcement will have to work alongside more gentle monitoring otherwise spread will continue. 

Even in places like South Korea or China I believe there has been some level of enforcement.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am afraid I have seen examples of people either through stupidity or wanton disobedience who have flouted the current instructions. One woman who returned from northern Italy a few weeks ago and was told to self isolate for 14 days. She didn't go to work but she attempted to continue going to her book / reading group because that was somehow different, also people in a house with a member with suspected covid-19 going to the shops despite that they should all have been fully isolating for 14 days. In this case I think they were muddling the advice because visits to the shops are permitted for those on lockdown but not for those with a suspected case of covid-19.
> 
> Some level of checking and enforcement will have to work alongside more gentle monitoring otherwise spread will continue.
> 
> Even in places like South Korea or China I believe there has been some level of enforcement.


There has been major enforcement in SK and China - hence the app. Also, a few weeks ago is very different from today. A few weeks ago almost everybody here was far more blase about this.


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 12, 2020)

'Stop waiting for Putin': Russian president takes backseat in crisis
					

Putin is working remotely and mainly focusing on cushioning blow to Russian economy




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## zahir (Apr 12, 2020)

Greece - lockdown/key workers PR


----------



## elbows (Apr 12, 2020)

We are at the stage where countries in europe that avoided having huge, raging epidemics in the first place, are looking at easing certain restrictions. Lots of devilish detail though, I will watch with interest.









						Coronavirus: Why Denmark is taking steps to open up again
					

Danish schools will reopen soon, but curbs will only be lifted gradually.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## miss direct (Apr 12, 2020)

Well, only two hours left of our 48 hour lockdown here in Turkey. And by lockdown, I mean you can not go out AT ALL, police, army and nightwatchmen patrolling the streets to make sure. I'll be going for a very long walk tomorrow. Who knows when they will do this again?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

A little more about New Zealand

1,049 confirmed cases 
14 in hospital 
4 dead 

A thousand cases is enough to spark a significant epidemic so it is interesting that so far there are only 4 deaths. The biggest grouping of cases, 330 are in the 20-29 age group. 

By ethnicity European or other make up 979 of the cases. 

They have tested 61,467 and have 66,712 tests in stock. 

from 12/04/2020 COVID-19 - current cases
The cases seem to have spread across the north and south islands but hospitalisations are spread thinly around different facilities.

Live Covid-19 updates from New Zealand and around the world on 13 April


> The number of new cases has dropped and recoveries are on the rise as New Zealand nears three weeks in lockdown. There have been four Covid-19 deaths.
> ..
> New Zealand is in its 19th day of alert Level 4 status - a full lockdown set to last at least four weeks. Only essential services remain open and movement is restricted.





> ..
> PM Jacinda Ardern will make a decision on whether we will move from alert level 4 to 3 on 20 April.


from 13/04/2020 Live Covid-19 updates from New Zealand and around the world on 13 April


Jacinda Ardern’s coronavirus plan is working because, unlike others, she’s behaving like a true leader
_An article in the Independent by Alastair Campbell _


> The Washington Post this week carried a headline about a country that “is not just squashing the curve – it’s flattening it”. The country in question is not the United States, not the UK, Italy, Germany or Japan, all of which continue to cope with large numbers of cases and deaths. It is New Zealand. At the time of writing, they have had just over a thousand cases of Covid-19, and four deaths. Leadership matters in a crisis, and New Zealand’s leader, prime minister Jacinda Ardern, can surely take considerable credit for this thus far hugely impressive outcome.
> ..





> “If there was an election tomorrow, Jacinda would win every seat. She has put the whole country in strict lockdown, and because of the way she has conducted herself, and explained it, approval ratings for her and the policy are through the roof.”
> ..
> In this rugby-obsessed nation, unsurprisingly, one of the central messages sounded like something from an All Blacks team talk: “We go hard, we go early.”





> ..
> She spelled out how the government would do both contact tracing, and testing, and insisted that the more rigorous they were on all fronts, the likelier it was the lockdown could be lifted earlier. “We will do everything to protect you; I’m asking you to do all you can to protect all of us,” she added, with a Kennedy-esque touch.
> ..





> Locked away at home for 23 hours a day, I spend many of those hours studying different world leaders as they deal with the Covid-19 challenge. Ardern is the only one who seems to be smiling as much in the crisis as she does in what might be termed normal times. It seems to help her, and New Zealand, get through it.


from 11/04/2020 Alastair Campbell: Jacinda Ardern’s coronavirus plan is working because unlike others, she’s behaving like a true leader


New Zealand’s Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the country is ‘turning a corner’ in the battle against coronavirus after recording the lowest number of new cases in three weeks.


> Ms Ardern suggested the four-week lockdown could be softened in just over a weeks’ time, allowing some to return to work if social distancing rules can be maintained.
> ..





> All new arrivals into the country were ordered into quarantine as early as March 14 and cruise ships were banned. Within days all non-residents and non-citizens were banned from entering the country altogether. Ms Ardern has now ruled that citizens returning home will now spend 14 days in an ‘approved facility’.


from 10/04/2020 New Zealand preparing to end lockdown after success in coronavirus battle


----------



## zahir (Apr 12, 2020)

Some figures for the outbreak in Greece.









						Greece improved its global position on COVID-19 cases and deaths - Keep Talking Greece
					

Greece 's comparative position in the global ranking of Covid-19 cases and deaths is constantly decl




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## peterkro (Apr 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> A little more about New Zealand
> 
> 1,049 confirmed cases
> 14 in hospital
> ...



Not directlyy relevant but there are rumblings about authoritarianism by some in NZ.Given the breaking news about the use of NHS use of confidential data I'm wondering just what sort of societies will exist after the virus has run its course:









						The Coronavirus State: New Zealand And Authoritarian Rumblings
					

It’s all about the lever of balance. Laws made for public protection, within which public health features prominently, provide grounds for derogation authorities can exploit. Like plasticine, the scope of power during times of an emergency extends. ...




					www.scoop.co.nz


----------



## Azrael (Apr 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> A little more about New Zealand
> 
> 1,049 confirmed cases
> 14 in hospital
> ...




Ardern's volcanic reaction to the idea of using an epidemic to create "herd immunity" in New Zealand is something to behold. If it's naive to expect our leaders to react like this, I'm glad to be so.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 12, 2020)

peterkro said:


> Not directlyy relevant but there are rumblings about authoritarianism by some in NZ.Given the breaking news about the use of NHS use of confidential data I'm wondering just what sort of societies will exist after the virus has run its course:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This is tough, isn't it? The argument here would be some authoritarianism now is better than a lot of authoritarianism later. If it works, and NZ 'does a South Korea' or even better than that, it will be vindicated, I think. Surprised to hear myself say that, but these are surprising times.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 12, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> This is tough, isn't it? The argument here would be some authoritarianism now is better than a lot of authoritarianism later. If it works, and NZ 'does a South Korea' or even better than that, it will be vindicated, I think. Surprised to hear myself say that, but these are surprising times.


I'm certainly against oppressive measures such as warrantless searches (unless there's exigency, which may be a requirement for N.Z.'s powers, the article isn't clear), but the article's civil liberties arguments would better convince if it unequivocally praised Ardern for taking the bold step of using her power to purge the coronavirus from New Zealand's shores. The right to life is, after all, the liberty on which all others rest.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> This is tough, isn't it? The argument here would be some authoritarianism now is better than a lot of authoritarianism later. If it works, and NZ 'does a South Korea' or even better than that, it will be vindicated, I think. Surprised to hear myself say that, but these are surprising times.


Just a point, afaict South Korea hasn't yet implemented a lockdown so the two countries responses differ.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Just a point, afaict South Korea hasn't yet implemented a lockdown so the two countries responses differ.


Indeed. I was thinking in terms of results more than methods. NZ is 'aiming for zero' as SK did.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Indeed. I was thinking in terms of results more than methods. NZ is 'aiming for zero' as SK did.


It still boils my piss when the science officers put up that chart of deaths by nation and South Korea is blatantly way way down at the bottom yet not a single journalist asks what lessons we have or should learn from it?

I am not even sure if they would have a satisfactory answer but it would at least acknowledge the outlier in the deaths chart that is SK, that there is another way.


----------



## editor (Apr 12, 2020)

Sweden's experiment is looking a bit worrying, but Boris has a fucking shitload to answer for.











						COVID-19 Data Explorer
					

Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems




					ourworldindata.org


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

Our line is clearly still going in the wrong direction.


----------



## little_legs (Apr 12, 2020)

The governments of top 2 are the herd immunity fans


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 12, 2020)

Clearly the modellers disapprove of anything short of lockdown.

I don't see a reason to predict the UK being much worse than Spain, though. We may be headed for something in between Spain and Italy, which would still be my guess. I also don't see where they get the confidence to put Belgium below Spain. Belgium is in a right old state at the moment. Shame Belgium isn't on editor's graph above - it would not look pretty.

Also odd to omit Switzerland from that table. And what makes them put Poland so high? Only fans of some countries' lockdown policies clearly. 

Aaand, the figures for Spain and Italy are hopelessly optimistic - they're already nearly there, and that's not even accounting for the yet-to-be-accounted deaths.

tbh that table's figures look like someone's pulled them out of somebody else's arse.


----------



## little_legs (Apr 12, 2020)

China is cracking down on Black people due to racist fears they are spreading the virus









						Africans in Guangzhou on edge as coronavirus fears spark anti-foreigner sentiment in China
					

The African community in Guangzhou is on edge after widespread accounts were shared on social media of people being left homeless this week, as they say China's warnings against imported coronavirus cases stoke anti-foreigner sentiment.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 12, 2020)

Yes little_legs I read that also. Awful that people can pick on differences like this. It sounds as if African nationals are really in trouble there now with many having no place to go and apparently no way to leave.


----------



## xes (Apr 12, 2020)

So shortly after so many Chinese people were facing the same stupid.


----------



## miss direct (Apr 13, 2020)

Xenophobia and racism related to this seems to be a big problem. Here in Turkey I’ve had foreign friends insulted at the supermarket and people moving away from them. Much like what was happening to Chinese (or people who appeared to be) in the UK earlier in the year. I’m always semi grateful that until I open my mouth, I blend in here.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Apr 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes little_legs I read that also. Awful that people can pick on differences like this.


BBC News was asking a UK doctor about the higher instance of BAME patients during the epidemic. He confirmed (anecdotally, albeit) that they are seeing a higher proportion of minorities, but pointed out they have no idea what the underlying reasons are, since it could easily be socio-economic or even diet related.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 13, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> BBC News was asking a UK doctor about the higher instance of BAME patients during the epidemic. He confirmed (anecdotally, albeit) that they are seeing a higher proportion of minorities, but pointed out they have no idea what the underlying reasons are, since it could easily be socio-economic or even diet related.


Indeed, although my response that you quoted was about racism in Chinese actions against Africans caught up in China rather than any group being more or less affected medically by the virus.

On that though, the American experience is also that BAME groups have been more affected medically than other ethnicities, it has been noted in NY, Chicago and New Orleans.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 13, 2020)

Covid-19 tracking apps 



> EU suggests standardization: This week, the EU began pushing for its 27 nations to develop common standards for coronavirus tracking technologies that would make apps interoperable or even perhaps develop a single app to be used across the bloc
> ..
> Germany and elsewhere are working on mobile phone apps to track people who’ve been exposed to the coronavirus,





> ..
> France is officially working on a smartphone app to slow the spread of COVID-19, by tracking people living in France.
> ..
> Chinese apps from major tech companies like Baidu, WeChat, Alipay and others worked to help people get through the coronavirus crisis by offering statistics, e-medicine, tools for quarantine, e-commerce and tools to check your exposure.


from 11/04/2020 TechCrunch is now a part of Verizon Media


Countries with official tracking apps[edit]


> The Chinese government, in conjunction with Alipay, has deployed an app across 200 Chinese cities.[1]
> 
> In South Korea, the Corona 100m app has been developed to notify people of nearby cases.[2]
> 
> In Singapore, an app called TraceTogether is being used.[3]





> Russia has introduced a tracking app for patients diagnosed with COVID-19 living in Moscow, designed to ensure they do not leave home.[4]
> 
> Czechia has launched a Singapore-inspired tracking app called eRouška (eFacemask). The app was developed by local IT community, released as open source and will be handed over to the government.[5]
> ..





> Countries considering deployment[edit]
> 
> In the United Kingdom, Matthew Gould, chief executive of NHSX, the government body responsible for policy regarding technology in the NHS, said in late March 2020 that the organisation was looking seriously at an app that would alert people if they had recently been in contact with someone testing positive for the virus after scientists advising the government suggested it "could play a critical role" in limiting lockdowns.[6]


from Wikipedia COVID-19 app - Wikipedia


----------



## weltweit (Apr 13, 2020)

The Wikipedia article goes on to note apps including monitoring and or tracking / tracing apps around the world:


> Dedicated apps[edit]
> 
> Global
> 
> ...


----------



## 2hats (Apr 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The Wikipedia article goes on to note apps including monitoring and or tracking / tracing apps around the world:


There are a couple of others in the UK that are still under development and not yet announced (if they ever will be), that aren't on that list.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 13, 2020)

2hats said:


> There are a couple of others in the UK that are still under development and not yet announced (if they ever will be), that aren't on that list.


2hats  Can multiple apps operate with each other in the way that a single national app might?

Like there might only best be one waze for example.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 13, 2020)

The oil industry is seeing its future, a future where increasing use of electric cars will result in much reduced demand for oil, people aren't using petrol or diesel cars at the moment, a preview of the future.


----------



## editor (Apr 13, 2020)

America, eh?



> Death penalty states in the US are stockpiling medicines for lethal injections that could save the lives of hundreds of coronavirus patients were they released for medical use.
> 
> A group of prominent medical practitioners and experts has issued an appeal to capital punishment states to release their stocks of essential sedatives and paralytics that they hoard for executions. The drugs are among the most sought after in hospital intensive care units around the country where shortages of the key medicines are putting lives of Covid-19 patients at risk.











						Death penalty states urged to release stockpiled drugs for Covid-19 patients
					

Top health experts sign letter saying badly needed medications used in lethal injections ‘could save the lives of hundreds’




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## 2hats (Apr 13, 2020)

weltweit said:


> 2hats  Can multiple apps operate with each other in the way that a single national app might?


The ones I have seen would need some rewriting. And probably heads bashing together at the political/admin/bureaucratic level.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 13, 2020)

I've not been following the technical discussions so apologies if this has been addressed somewhere. But the figure of 80% or even 60% giving herd immunity I'm assuming brings the R0 down to below 1 so _eventually _the virus dies out.

That's still not going to let vulnerable people actually go out before we get a vaccine or treatment though is it, because the virus is still around and infecting people?


----------



## Labourite (Apr 13, 2020)

Spain is starting to ease its lockdown measures...


----------



## weltweit (Apr 13, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I've not been following the technical discussions so apologies if this has been addressed somewhere. But the figure of 80% or even 60% giving herd immunity I'm assuming brings the R0 down to below 1 so _eventually _the virus dies out.
> 
> That's still not going to let vulnerable people actually go out before we get a vaccine or treatment though is it, because the virus is still around and infecting people?


No technical discussion from me. 

My understanding is, if say an area achieved a level of immunity, the non immune (vulnerable) people would likely be geographically remote from one another ( in part or in the main ) so the virus would likely not have a route to infect them as it would have had to jump through perhaps 3 immune people to get to them. And because the virus can't survive outside a host that particular virus would more than likely die out. 

And immune people can't be carriers. 

Say someone was infected, the majority of people they came into contact with would be immune. Obviously any non-immune people in the vicinity would still be at risk but the large infections of today's outbreak wouldn't be possible. 

As to whether vulnerable people could be out and about, I don't know the answer. Obviously there would still be some risk, but it would be less than preseently.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 13, 2020)

Yes thinking about it the 60 to 80% refers to people who've had it and are immune (although that sounds iffy with people reportedly still being infectious after they've recovered). The 40 to 20% left are people who haven't got it/had it and so _also_ are not infectious. 

I'm assuming there will still be enough people out of those 40 to 20% though who _have_ got it to make it not really safe for vulnerable people to go out.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 13, 2020)

two sheds said:


> ..
> I'm assuming there will still be enough people out of those 40 to 20% though who _have_ got it to make it not really safe for vulnerable people to go out.


Well proper vulnerable people, elderly and with other health issues were told I think to isolate for 12 weeks iirc so perhaps that is the answer, they might still be at too much risk - long after the rest of us could have benefited from some easing of the lockdown.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 13, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Yes thinking about it the 60 to 80% refers to people who've had it and are immune (although that sounds iffy with people reportedly still being infectious after they've recovered). The 40 to 20% left are people who haven't got it/had it and so _also_ are not infectious.
> 
> I'm assuming there will still be enough people out of those 40 to 20% though who _have_ got it to make it not really safe for vulnerable people to go out.


Well first and foremost we need testing to see how many people have had it. If we had reliable numbers as to who's had it and how many might still have it, we could reach a situation where the risk to vulnerable people isn't zero but is within an acceptable range - ie within the same kind of range as other things that vulnerable people run the risk of catching anyway.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 13, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I've not been following the technical discussions so apologies if this has been addressed somewhere. But the figure of 80% or even 60% giving herd immunity I'm assuming brings the R0 down to below 1 so _eventually _the virus dies out.
> 
> That's still not going to let vulnerable people actually go out before we get a vaccine or treatment though is it, because the virus is still around and infecting people?


Yes, it depends on R0. Herd immunity scales like 1-1/R0. So for SARS-CoV-2 R0 in the UK at present is currently estimated to be somewhere between 2 and 3. This translates to 50-67% of the population developing an adequate immune response for herd immunity to have legs (note: might require more than 50-67% of the population to be exposed). Once that level is reached R0 rapidly drops to 1 and the virus struggles to find new, naive hosts for propagation.

Vulnerable persons would still need to isolate until either the chance of contracting the virus was low enough to be considered an acceptable risk for the person concerned (or they personally adopt other strategies to minimise risk to themselves), or a viable vaccine is widely available.

Also note that achieving herd immunity can generate evolutionary pressure for a virus to adapt; flu does this frequently. At this time we have no data as to whether the same will happen with SARS-CoV-2


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 13, 2020)

Apologies for the source, but I've followed the links to the studies concerned and the numbers are accurately reported.

COVID antibody test in German town shows 15 percent infection rate | Spectator USA

These findings suggest something possibly important to herd immunity and the point made above about exposure. People in close contact with infected people, whether because they're stuck on a boat together, living in the same household, or in one of the towns with the biggest concentrations of infection in the world, still only had around a 15 per cent chance of catching it. (I'm not proposing a hypothesis as to why that might be.)

Might this provide a link between the Imperial modelling and the Oxford modelling? On the face of it, if one of them is right, then the other must be way off. But what if they both contain a germ of truth - times the Imperial model's infection rate by around 6 and you get the Oxford model's rate.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 13, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Might this provide a link between the Imperial modelling and the Oxford modelling? On the face of it, if one of them is right, then the other must be way off. But what if they both contain a germ of truth - times the Imperial model's infection rate by around 6 and you get the Oxford model's rate.


The Oxford model is widely held, in the epidemiological community, to be way off. Just looking at the crude CFR alone tells you this but there is growing evidence pointing to the same from other avenues of research (modelling) and data collection (see upthread here, here and here).


----------



## elbows (Apr 13, 2020)

2hats said:


> The Oxford model is widely held, in the epidemiological community, to be way off. Just looking at the crude CFR alone tells you this but there is growing evidence pointing to the same from other avenues of research (modelling) and data collection (see upthread here, here and here).



If the media hadnt reported on that model in a certain way then I would have called it a curiosity that served as a useful reminder that models are only as good as the assumptions they are based on, and that we need serological survey data to test such theories. After all, that was one of the main points of the paper, but that was not the bit that the media and people with agendas that dont like the lockdown policy seized on. At least we have a little bit more data from certain countries to judge it against now (or to be more accurate, certain locations within countries).

Any idea what the epidemiological community think of the IHME models/projections?


----------



## two sheds (Apr 13, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Well first and foremost we need testing to see how many people have had it. If we had reliable numbers as to who's had it and how many might still have it, we could reach a situation where the risk to vulnerable people isn't zero but is within an acceptable range - ie within the same kind of range as other things that vulnerable people run the risk of catching anyway.



Not sure there's anything really out there with an acceptable range  that will kill me - I've had flu jab and pneumonia jab and not many people around with anthrax  . So back to my original plan of calling "I'm not coming out" through the letter box I think.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> Any idea what the epidemiological community think of the IHME models/projections?


The IHME have revised their model and conclusions several times and they now more broadly agree with the numbers from Imperial, LSHTM, and Kings/UCL (all just under 50K).

The latest IHME update over the weekend now estimates 37,494 (uncertainty interval: 26,149 to 62,519) deaths in the first wave.


----------



## miss direct (Apr 13, 2020)

Well we will be on full lockdown this weekend again in Turkey. Great.

Not heard of any other country only doing this at the weekend.


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 13, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Well we will be on full lockdown this weekend again in Turkey. Great.
> 
> Not heard of any other country only doing this at the weekend.



I haven't heard of any other weekend-only lockdowns either - aren't infected people just going to end up infecting their families over the weekends and their co-workers during the week?


----------



## miss direct (Apr 13, 2020)

Exactly.

A lot of people are working from home or have lost their jobs altogether. The people still going to work are the supermarket workers, healthcare workers, and the desperate (people selling masks on the street, construction workers, etc.) 

Here in Istanbul, the population is 15 million plus, and most people live in apartments. Now Spring is here, the typical thing to do at the weekend is to go to the seaside or park and have a BBQ or picnic. It gets so crowded. So I can understand why they've done this in some respects, but after going out to the shops and for a walk today and seeing the way many behave, it all seems pointless


----------



## Azrael (Apr 13, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Not sure there's anything really out there with an acceptable range  that will kill me - I've had flu jab and pneumonia jab and not many people around with anthrax  . So back to my original plan of calling "I'm not coming out" through the letter box I think.


I'd say it's incredible that the Dr. Strangeloves never factored in mass public resistance to their homicidal "herd immunity" plan: but looking at their dead-eyed performances at the pressers, where deaths are just numbers on a page to them, it's not surprising. They don't get people.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 13, 2020)

2hats said:


> The IHME have revised their model and conclusions several times and they now more broadly agree with the numbers from Imperial, LSHTM, and Kings/UCL (all just under 50K).
> 
> The latest IHME update over the weekend now estimates 37,494 (uncertainty interval: 26,149 to 62,519) deaths in the first wave.


I don't get those predictions at all. Really looks like utter bollocks to me. Italy, for instance, passed the total they predicted for 4 August _today_, four days after they made their prediction. There's something badly wrong with their system.

And while deaths do tail off at the end, they don't tail off like that. Just the people currently in ICU who're going to die will change that. It's all very


----------



## elbows (Apr 13, 2020)

France offers some clues about the next steps:





> France's President Emmanuel Macron has just delivered his third TV address on the coronavirus, announcing the extension of a nationwide lockdown to stem the spread of coronavirus.
> The lockdown, Macron said, would be extended until 11 May.
> Under the rules, which are enforced by police, anyone who goes outside is required to carry a document stating their reason for leaving home.





> He thanked essential workers in all sectors for “allowing our nation to continue to operate” during the pandemic
> He admitted the French government was not prepared for the crisis, acknowledging shortcomings in delivering medical supplies to hospitals
> France’s borders will remain closed to non-EU countries until further notice
> Restaurants, bars, cinemas and other public venues will remain closed, and festivals cannot be held until mid-July
> ...



from 19:43 of BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52266235

So they aim to test all new cases, once they've got things down to whatever level they manage by May 11th.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 13, 2020)

Since France is also developing a tracing app, sounds like they're going for a more cautious version of the South Korean strategy for suppression. Unsurprising. Beyond unending lockdown and taking it on the chin, until a country's ready to attempt viral elimination, what else is there?


----------



## Anju (Apr 13, 2020)

From the FT

"The G20 group is planning to offer lower income countries a moratorium on bilateral government loan repayments as part of an “action plan” to tackle the coronavirus pandemic and stave off an emerging markets debt crisis, a senior G20 official said."

Will be interested to see whether they manage to come to agreement on this, especially given the different levels of lending between members. Only 6-9 month payment holiday at the moment but maybe some debt cancellation being considered as well.

Not sure if there are any potential downsides /  hidden dangers to this but it's good to see some international cooperation, though that's also why I wonder about the potential downsides.

Managed to read this from Google news but the link seems to be subscription only - text from article pasted below. 

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

The G20 group is planning to offer lower income countries a moratorium on bilateral government loan repayments as part of an “action plan” to tackle the coronavirus pandemic and stave off an emerging markets debt crisis, a senior G20 official said.

The initiative, due to be finalised at a finance ministers’ meeting this week, would see a freeze on sovereign debt repayments for six or nine months, or possibly through to 2021, in line with an appeal last month from the IMF and World Bank.

Wealthy nations and multilateral institutions would use the period of the moratorium to draw up “very clear criteria, country-by-country of what exactly is going to happen. Is it debt relief totally? Is it just a deferment, a rescheduling?” the official said.

“For debt relief to happen it would take time for it to be co-ordinated,” said the official, who did not want to be named because of the sensitivity of the discussions. “But what is immediately needed is to give these people space so they don’t need to worry about the cash flow and debt servicing going to other countries, and they can use that money for their immediate needs.”

Concerns have been mounting about the debt sustainability of many lower income countries that borrowed heavily in the years after the 2008 global financial crisis and now lack the resources to deal with the economic problems caused by the Covid-19 pandemic as they grapple with high debts, fiscal deficits, plummeting revenues and weakening currencies — as well as health crises.

Another official close to the negotiations said the initiative “has strong support”. “Negotiations are still ongoing, and some details remain, but we are confident a solution will be found,” the official said.

The IMF and the World Bank called for debt relief for 76 of the world’s poorest nations that are eligible to receive the bank’s International Development Association funding. But other countries outside that criterion are also struggling with high debts and depleted resources. There are still discussions about who would be included.

Countries receiving bilateral development assistance are estimated to be due to make repayments of about $40bn to external creditors this year. The country-to-country loans are estimated to represent about $18bn.

The Institute of International Finance, an industry association, estimates that lower income nations will make repayments of a further $130bn on domestic debts. But the exact scale of the debt is not clear, given the opacity of some of the lending.


> Within the G20 there’s a very clear recognition that a global co-ordinated approach is a must, not a choice


After the IMF and World Bank appealed for debt assistance for poorer nations, there were concerns that some sovereign lenders may be reluctant to suspend repayments if the money saved was diverted to paying other creditors rather than being used to tackle the coronavirus crisis.

Those concerns initially focused on China, the biggest bilateral lender to the IDA countries. Beijing has granted debt relief to creditor countries in the past, but has preferred to do so on a bespoke basis rather than as part of any co-ordinated effort.

China has so far appeared reluctant to change that approach. Its foreign ministry said last week it was willing to talk to low-income countries individually about their debt challenges, while noting that past repayment problems had been resolved bilaterally.

That stance may have changed ahead of this week’s meetings.

The G20 official dismissed speculation that there were differences between G20 members, particularly China, saying that while there were “some details that we are working through, certainly there’s a very clear commitment, including China”.

“Within the G20 there’s a very clear recognition that a global co-ordinated approach is a must, not a choice,” the official said. “I have not seen the spirit I have seen in the last six to eight weeks between the G20 members — there’s a clear understanding the political angles to this are put in a freezer.”

Odile Renaud Basso, chair of the Paris Club, a group of 22 big creditor nations, said any decision should be taken by all creditors together and that China was “participating very constructively” with the G20 negotiations.

“There must be a level playing field so that all creditors agree to the same key parameters,” she said. “But with that in place there is always a need for bilateral discussions between each creditor and debtor nation, and China could work within that framework. They are very much involved and I think they will be part of an agreement.”


> There’s now a growing recognition among G20 . . . that it’s a survival game, you cannot fix your own house alone . . . this virus doesn’t know borders


She said several creditor nations, including China, had pressed for the IMF, World Bank and other multilateral lenders to join others in freezing debt repayments.

The IIF, which represents about 450 firms in the global financial services industry, has also called on private creditors “to forbear payment default for the poorest and most vulnerable countries significantly affected by Covid-19 and related economic turbulence for a specified time period, without waiving the payment obligation”.

Ms Renaud Basso said she was confident that a voluntary standstill by private creditors would be agreed.

The G20 official said governments would not pressure private investors to offer poorer nations relief, saying it could distort markets.

“We would welcome any voluntary action by the private holders, but getting into the private holders has a lot of complications and legal ramifications,” the official said. “You cannot force individual investors to waive their rights. That could distort the markets, and could have the negative consequences of liquidity problems. They would not lend if they see any sign that they can be forced to let go of their assets.”

The G20 nations are also discussing how to make further funding available to multilateral institutions, like the IMF, in the knowledge that the current funding will not be sufficient.

“What is available now deals with the immediate needs, there are steps being taken to look at what additional resources we need,” the G20 official said.

The official added that while previously the G20 members considered support to lower income nations as more humanitarian support, “this time it’s different”.

“There’s now a growing recognition among G20 . . . that it’s a survival game, you cannot fix your own house alone . . . this virus doesn’t know borders,” the official said. “So what may be seen as difference of opinions, still issues to negotiate, is not about whether we should or shouldn’t, it’s about what’s the right approach.”


----------



## zahir (Apr 13, 2020)

A short video on South Korea’s approach.


----------



## donkyboy (Apr 14, 2020)

Let us all pray covid away


----------



## 8ball (Apr 14, 2020)

donkyboy said:


> Let us all pray covid away




I blowed my Covid away and miraculously am also no longer gay.
PRAISE JESUS!!


----------



## zahir (Apr 14, 2020)

> Government spokesman Stelios Petsas announced that the gradually lifting of lockdown restrictions may start in the first days of May and may be completed by mid-June, if the course of the coronavirus pandemic continues in the same modus, the virus curve flattens and there is no resurgence of the pandemic in the country. According to latest official data on Monday, death toll is at 99, total confirmed cases at 2,145 and total CoVID-19 tests conducted in Greece 43,417.
> 
> Speaking to Meta TV on Monday evening, Petsas said “until April 27, all data and thoughts about the gradual lifting of the restrictions will have been collected from all relevant ministries. It will be decided next week, so that all Greeks will know by the end of the month what will happen.”





> Travel restrictions could be lifted after mid-June or in early July. Star TV reported that especially tourists from abroad will have to show an “anti-bodies certificate” before they go on board of an airplane.











						“Gradual lockdown lifting in Greece to start early May,” says Gov’t spokesman - Keep Talking Greece
					

Government spokesman Stelios Petsas announced that the gradually lifting of lockdown restrictions ma




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com
				




I suspect there may be a desperate desire here to salvage something of the tourist season.


----------



## scifisam (Apr 14, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Well we will be on full lockdown this weekend again in Turkey. Great.
> 
> Not heard of any other country only doing this at the weekend.



That just seems like it's going to concentrate more people going out in a shorter space of time and getting closer to each other.


----------



## Boru (Apr 14, 2020)

Investigation was launched when German health authorities made an upfront payment online of €1.5m for face masks,









						Irish man questioned over €15m international virus scam
					

An Irish man has been questioned by gardaí as part of an international investigation into what is described as a sophisticated €15m Covid-19 scam.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## clicker (Apr 14, 2020)

zahir said:


> “Gradual lockdown lifting in Greece to start early May,” says Gov’t spokesman - Keep Talking Greece
> 
> 
> Government spokesman Stelios Petsas announced that the gradually lifting of lockdown restrictions ma
> ...


I hope they're not being too eager. They've done so well up to now. But if they're insisting on an 'antibody certificate', do they exist yet? 
Friends out there had already mentally written off this year. With a similar population to Italy and really low key hospital facilities, they'd struggle if it took hold.


----------



## zahir (Apr 14, 2020)

clicker said:


> I hope they're not being too eager. They've done so well up to now.


My thoughts as well. I can see why they’d want to lift the lockdown by the summer but there must be scope for things going very wrong.


> But if they're insisting on an 'antibody certificate', do they exist yet?


Not that I’m aware of.


----------



## zahir (Apr 14, 2020)

Outbreak in a care home near Athens. It looks like it’s being handled much better than it would be here.









						Officials respond to coronavirus outbreak in nursing home | eKathimerini.com
					

A disinfecting crew in hazmat suits enters a retirement home at the seaside settlement of Nea Makri, east of Athens, Monday. The center was put under quarantine over the weekend after 12 people – 10 residents and two members of staff – tested positive for the coronavirus. The elderly were taken...




					www.ekathimerini.com


----------



## zahir (Apr 14, 2020)

How Greece is beating coronavirus despite a decade of debt
					

Country’s hospitals bore brunt of cuts but its efforts to contain Covid-19 appear to be paying off




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## zahir (Apr 14, 2020)

Marseille - A McDonalds requisitioned by employees and activist groups for food distribution.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 14, 2020)

Here is another example of this stupid focus on cases per country rather than head of population. They say Belgium's fatalities are now the "fifth highest in Europe".


But the reality is that their death rate, per head of population, appears to be the third highest in the world at this moment in time, and the worst in the world if you measure at the equivalent point in time since the first death.




Useful I think to see it on a linear scale too:


----------



## zahir (Apr 14, 2020)

Washington Post story suggesting the virus could have come from a lab in Wuhan. Does this sound plausible, elbows or anyone else?



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/


----------



## elbows (Apr 14, 2020)

zahir said:


> Washington Post story suggesting the virus could have come from a lab in Wuhan. Does this sound plausible, elbows or anyone else?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/



I cannot read the article, paywall. I will try to somehow at some point.

I am familiar with the broad topic.

Lab accidents are a thing. An entire influenza pandemic (1977, H1N1) was probably caused by one, which I have spoken about several times before. Since that involved a strain that had previously been in humans several decades earlier, it wasnt a terrible pandemic, it largely affected the young who were not around to catch that flu in the 1950s (or was it the late 1940s? I forget). Sometimes the 1977 event is referred to as an epidemic rather than a pandemic, or as 'a pandemic in children'.

Propaganda is also a thing. Deflection and blame games are a thing. As are cover-ups of high-consequences accidents.

As such, I cannot exclude the possibility of a lab accident being involved. But other possibilities exist, and I'm not sure we will ever know. Maybe one day a suitable clue will emerge. In the meantime I will probably be bored to death by people who want certainty, not open questions and open minds.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 14, 2020)

GSK and Sanofi reported to be joining forces to create a vaccine. They don't expect it to be widely available until the second half of 2021 _if_ it is successful in clinical trials (no group is, so far, reporting that they expect to have a viable vaccine for at least 12-24 months).









						GSK and Sanofi join forces to work on coronavirus vaccine
					

Two companies jointly have capacity to manufacture hundreds of millions of doses




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## zahir (Apr 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> I cannot read the article, paywall. I will try to somehow at some point.



The start of the article:


> Two years before the novel coronavirus pandemic upended the world, U.S. Embassy officials visited a Chinese research facility in the city of Wuhan several times and sent two official warnings back to Washington about inadequate safety at the lab, which was conducting risky studies on coronaviruses from bats. The cables have fueled discussions inside the U.S. government about whether this or another Wuhan lab was the source of the virus — even though conclusive proof has yet to emerge.
> 
> In January 2018, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing took the unusual step of repeatedly sending U.S. science diplomats to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), which had in 2015 become China’s first laboratory to achieve the highest level of international bioresearch safety (known as BSL-4). WIV issued a news release in English about the last of these visits, which occurred on March 27, 2018. The U.S. delegation was led by Jamison Fouss, the consul general in Wuhan, and Rick Switzer, the embassy’s counselor of environment, science, technology and health. Last week, WIV erased that statement from its website, though it remains archived on the Internet.
> 
> ...


----------



## zahir (Apr 14, 2020)

Continued:


> “Most importantly,” the cable states, “the researchers also showed that various SARS-like coronaviruses can interact with ACE2, the human receptor identified for SARS-coronavirus. This finding strongly suggests that SARS-like coronaviruses from bats can be transmitted to humans to cause SARS-like diseases. From a public health perspective, this makes the continued surveillance of SARS-like coronaviruses in bats and study of the animal-human interface critical to future emerging coronavirus outbreak prediction and prevention.”
> 
> The research was designed to prevent the next SARS-like pandemic by anticipating how it might emerge. But even in 2015, other scientists questionedwhether Shi’s team was taking unnecessary risks. In October 2014, the U.S. government had imposed a moratorium on funding of any research that makes a virus more deadly or contagious, known as “gain-of-function” experiments.
> 
> ...


----------



## zahir (Apr 14, 2020)

> Shi and other WIV researchers have categorically denied this lab was the origin for the novel coronavirus. On Feb. 3, her team was the first to publicly report the virus known as 2019-nCoV was a bat-derived coronavirus.
> 
> The Chinese government, meanwhile, has put a total lockdown on information related to the virus origins. Beijing has yet to provide U.S. experts with samples of the novel coronavirus collected from the earliest cases. The Shanghai lab that published the novel coronavirus genome on Jan. 11 was quickly shut down by authorities for “rectification.” Several of the doctors and journalists who reported on the spread early on have disappeared.
> 
> ...


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 14, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Here is another example of this stupid focus on cases per country rather than head of population. They say Belgium's fatalities are now the "fifth highest in Europe".
> View attachment 206715
> 
> But the reality is that their death rate, per head of population, appears to be the third highest in the world at this moment in time, and the worst in the world if you measure at the equivalent point in time since the first death.
> ...


Yep, Belgium's in a mess. If you're breaking things down to more like Belgium-sized chunks, it also makes more sense to view the states of New York and New Jersey as one unit. London on its own, or perhaps London plus its commuter belt (which would be about Belgium-sized), would also not look too pretty.


----------



## Favelado (Apr 14, 2020)

__





						Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period | Science
					





					science.sciencemag.org
				




This seems to be very significant. I'm reading it bits at a time but it really brings home how this is not a question of a bit of a lockdown and then life gets back to normal - we're in for a long, slow struggle.
Hard work but I think it's essential to getting a better handle on this.


----------



## scifisam (Apr 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> I cannot read the article, paywall. I will try to somehow at some point.



You get four articles a month for free if you register.


----------



## Favelado (Apr 14, 2020)

zahir said:


> Washington Post story suggesting the virus could have come from a lab in Wuhan. Does this sound plausible, elbows or anyone else?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/



That is absolutely fascinating. I can believe in a cock up more than I ever could a conspiracy. The type of thing you might want to cover up too.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 14, 2020)

zahir said:


> Washington Post story suggesting the virus could have come from a lab in Wuhan. Does this sound plausible, elbows or anyone else?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/


It isn't the first time I have heard of this possibility but perhaps the first time in a reputable paper. The existence of this particular lab and apparently doing this specific work with security concerns does make one wonder. If not this story then what a coincidence the virus emerges from a wet market so close to a lab apparently doing this specific work?


----------



## Azrael (Apr 14, 2020)

Favelado said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Once I got past my Pavlovian response to "herd immunity", some interesting things there. Ongoing suppression could put immense strain on societies for years to come, and is no guarantee against fresh outbreaks getting out of control. The dance will be exhausting.

Just makes the case for throwing every resource we have at eliminating SARS-CoV-2 from the general population ASAP all the stronger. A vaccine may well be needed to complete the work, but there's nothing stopping us from starting at once with the test-trace-isolate methods that annihilated the first SARS virus. If they succeed, fantastic; if they don't, our suppression strategy will be bolstered.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 14, 2020)

Favelado said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...



As you indicate, that article is *very* hard work -- ultra-hard-core science 

Admirable, but there's no way I'll be able to get my head round it properly (or at all!) until someone on here manages to, and offers a layman-friendly summary ..... even the abstract threw me .... </humanities type  >
No pressure on Urban science bods though!


----------



## Favelado (Apr 14, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> As you indicate, that article is *very* hard work -- ultra-hard-core science
> 
> Admirable, but there's no way I'll be able to get my head round it properly (or at all!) until someone on here manages to, and offers a layman-friendly summary ..... even the abstract threw me .... </humanities type  >
> No pressure on Urban science bods though!



Yeah some of it is beyond me but it seems worth the rereading. I really want to take in as much as the layman can.


----------



## Favelado (Apr 14, 2020)

weltweit said:


> It isn't the first time I have heard of this possibility but perhaps the first time in a reputable paper. The existence of this particular lab and apparently doing this specific work with security concerns does make one wonder. If not this story then what a coincidence the virus emerges from a wet market so close to a lab apparently doing this specific work?



I mean - they broke Watergate. They nail the real conspiracies!


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 14, 2020)

Favelado said:


> Yeah some of it is beyond me but it seems worth the rereading. I really want to take in as much as the layman can.



OK, maybe earlyish tomorrow might be worth some more effort.
I'm not optimistic though, my far too literary and historical head doesn't like scientific codes, or stats, and that article's full of 'em .....


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 14, 2020)

weltweit said:


> It isn't the first time I have heard of this possibility but perhaps the first time in a reputable paper. The existence of this particular lab and apparently doing this specific work with security concerns does make one wonder. If not this story then what a coincidence the virus emerges from a wet market so close to a lab apparently doing this specific work?


Maybe. Is it that close, though? 5 km away iirc? (I can't read that link.) But Wuhan is a city the size of London. It's not exactly around the corner. And how unusual is it for a huge city to have this kind of lab somewhere in it?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 14, 2020)

A couple of BBC articles on India 

India's race against time to save doctors


> ..
> In some cases, doctors were forced to use raincoats and motorbike helmets.
> 
> One doctor, who is working in the state-run hospital in the northern city of Lucknow, said: "We are not getting PPE kits as fast as we should."
> ...


from 13/04/2020 India's race against time to save doctors

Why India cannot afford to lift its lockdown


> Will India extend its rigorous 21-day lockdown to slow the spread of coronavirus beyond its end date next week? By all accounts, yes.
> 
> On 24 March, India shut its $2.9 trillion economy, closing its businesses and issuing strict stay-at-home orders to more than a billion people. Air, road and rail transport systems were suspended.





> Now, more than two months after the first case of Covid-19 was detected in the country, more than 5,000 people have tested positive and some 150 people have died. As testing has ramped up, the true picture is emerging. The virus is beginning to spread through dense communities and new clusters of infection are being reported every day. Lifting the lockdown could easily risk triggering a fresh wave of infections.
> ..
> For the moment, economists say, the government will have to prioritise farming over everything else to ensure the livelihoods of millions and secure the country's future food supplies.





> Half of India's labour force work on farms. The lockdown happened at a time when a bumper winter crop had to be harvested and sold, and the rain-fed summer crop had to be sowed. The immediate challenge is to harvest and market the first crop, and secure the second.


from 09/04/2020 Why India cannot afford to lift its lockdown


----------



## Favelado (Apr 14, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> And how unusual is it for a huge city to have this kind of lab somewhere in it?



Good question. What's the answer?


----------



## teuchter (Apr 14, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yep, Belgium's in a mess. If you're breaking things down to more like Belgium-sized chunks, it also makes more sense to view the states of New York and New Jersey as one unit. London on its own, or perhaps London plus its commuter belt (which would be about Belgium-sized), would also not look too pretty.


Yes, I've not managed to find anywhere that will compare things on a graph at that level. The site I took those graphs from will break down by US state but not into regions of European countries.

I would be very interested to see things graphed against population density, in city-sized units, across a number of different countries.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 14, 2020)

Favelado said:


> Good question. What's the answer?


I don't know. It was a genuine question. Given the prevalence of coronaviruses in the last few years, there must be a few, particularly in East Asia.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 14, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Yes, I've not managed to find anywhere that will compare things on a graph at that level. The site I took those graphs from will break down by US state but not into regions of European countries.
> 
> I would be very interested to see things graphed against population density, in city-sized units, across a number of different countries.


Yeah, every country has its hotspots. Some of the countries are more hotspot-sized, so their figures can be alarming. New York state now has more than 500 deaths per million. If it were a country, it would top the charts atm.


----------



## Favelado (Apr 14, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I don't know. It was a genuine question. Given the prevalence of coronaviruses in the last few years, there must be a few, particularly in East Asia.



I know! I was drawing attention to the question, not mocking it.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 15, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yep, Belgium's in a mess. If you're breaking things down to more like Belgium-sized chunks, it also makes more sense to view the states of New York and New Jersey as one unit. London on its own, or perhaps London plus its commuter belt (which would be about Belgium-sized), would also not look too pretty.


The only way to make anything close to meaningful comparisons between geographically separate areas is to factor in population density and at a sub-national granularity. One has to figure out precisely what question it is you are trying to answer first in trying to process the data in this way. I suspect that countries are too disparate (structurally, culturally, reporting mechanisms, healthcare setups, etc, even at various internal levels) to easily compare on a like for like basis.


----------



## toblerone3 (Apr 15, 2020)

I think the conspiracy theorists will be trying to use the fact that there was research into bat-derived SARS-like Corona viruses for a number of years to construct new paranoid narratives. 








						Discovery of a rich gene pool of bat SARS-related coronaviruses provides new insights into the origin of SARS coronavirus
					

Author summary Increasing evidence has been gathered to support the bat origin of SARS coronavirus (SARS-CoV) in the past decade. However, none of the currently known bat SARSr-CoVs is thought to be the direct ancestor of SARS-CoV. Herein, we report the identification of a diverse group of bat...




					journals.plos.org


----------



## Supine (Apr 15, 2020)

teuchter said:


> I would be very interested to see things graphed against population density, in city-sized units, across a number of different countries.



Here you go


----------



## redsquirrel (Apr 15, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yep, Belgium's in a mess. If you're breaking things down to more like Belgium-sized chunks, it also makes more sense to view the states of New York and New Jersey as one unit. London on its own, or perhaps London plus its commuter belt (which would be about Belgium-sized), would also not look too pretty.


Need to be a little cautious, according to the Guardian (my emphasis), 

========

Belgian authorities have announced 4,157 people have now died from coronavirus, making the country among the worst affected in Europe.

Deaths from coronavirus in Belgium exceeded the 4,000 mark with 262 new deaths confirmed in the last 24 hours, the National Crisis Centre reported in its daily briefing on Tuesday. Cases rose to 31,119, as testing was stepped up. The number of new patients admitted to hospital each day is continuing on a slow downward trend that has been evident since the end of March.

According to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, the number of deaths in Belgium is behind only Italy, Spain, France and the UK, all significantly more populous countries. Belgium, which has a population of 11.5m, has recorded more deaths than its neighbour the Netherlands, which has a population of 17.1 million and 2,727 deaths at the latest ECDC count. 

*Comparisons are difficult as all countries are at different phases of the outbreak and calculate the death rate in varying ways. Belgium includes deaths in care homes, which so far account for 46% of all fatalities. Belgian authorities also include people suspected, but not confirmed, of having died from Covid 19.*

The country’s national security council is due to meet on Wednesday to discuss when to end the lockdown, following a report from an expert group. The francophone state broadcaster RTBF reported that the lockdown was likely to be extended until 3 May.

The mayor of Brussels, Philippe Close, has called on the government to announce a date for ending the lockdown. “It is not enough to ask people to deprive themselves of their individual freedoms without telling them ‘we will come back to you and explain the next step,’” he said.

He also said people could forget about any mass events before the end of June.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> Here you go




Interesting, I was surprised population density had such a weak relationship. So, looks down to government policy, particularly how soon lockdown came - less of a surprise.


----------



## redsquirrel (Apr 15, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Interesting, I was surprised population density had such a weak relationship. So, looks down to government policy, particularly how soon lockdown came - less of a surprise.


It doesn't really, at least not on that data, R^2=0.15 is not a strong correlation.


----------



## Supine (Apr 15, 2020)

redsquirrel said:


> It doesn't really, at least not on that data, R^2=0.15 is not a strong correlation.



that’s what two sheds said


----------



## teuchter (Apr 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> Here you go



Thanks. 
He's not really graphed against density though - number of large cities is not the same thing, and you'd need it broken into smaller geographical units to tell you anything useful.


----------



## redsquirrel (Apr 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> that’s what two sheds said


I don't think he did "So, looks down to government policy, particularly how soon lockdown came - less of a surprise". Surely that's saying lockdown has a relationship.


----------



## kabbes (Apr 15, 2020)

These things always mostly come down to what you’re specifically measuring and how you measure the way it changes.  Picking the metric is 90% of the battle.  I’m not convinced that a random journalist graphing the first data he comes across is really the best guide.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 15, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Thanks.
> He's not really graphed against density though - number of large cities is not the same thing, and you'd need it broken into smaller geographical units to tell you anything useful.


Yeah, this second bit is important re comparisons. Good info from redsquirrel about the big discrepancies in reporting deaths - glad to hear that that is at least part of why Belgium looks so bad (although of course it also points at others actually being a lot worse than their figures might suggest). But another reason such figures can come up is due to the size of units being compared differing. US state of New York would have the highest deaths per capita in the world for a unit that kind of size if it were a country (San Marino may be ahead, but that's another example of the problem - San Marino is minute), and NY has a larger population than Belgium, but instead, it's lumped in with a Europe-sized unit when doing country comparisons. So there's a bit of a randomising factor here, and the smaller the unit being considered, the greater the chance of big anomalies either way - either from a region missing big hotspots or a region containing them - without necessarily reflecting much on that region's policies. And of course borders are a bit arbitrary - the New York and New Jersey outbreaks are essentially part of the same process given that Jersey City is effectively a suburb of NY City.


----------



## Supine (Apr 15, 2020)

kabbes said:


> These things always mostly come down to what you’re specifically measuring and how you measure the way it changes.  Picking the metric is 90% of the battle.  I’m not convinced that a random journalist graphing the first data he comes across is really the best guide.



He’s not just a random journalist. Worth following the discussions on his graphs if data is something your interested in.


----------



## redsquirrel (Apr 15, 2020)

kabbes said:


> These things always mostly come down to what you’re specifically measuring and how you measure the way it changes.  Picking the metric is 90% of the battle.  I’m not convinced that a random journalist graphing the first data he comes across is really the best guide.


Yeah, I mean I think lockdown date probably does (or at least can) have a significant effect, it's just that from the data being used there is only a weak relationship.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 15, 2020)

The graph he's done showing deaths per capita vs country population, where I'm not exactly sure what he's trying to say (he seems to be countering people like me who want to see, generally, figures per capita rather than per country) -

It would be interesting to see what changes if you do the same but
(a) plot individual US states instead of the US as a whole, and/or
(b) plot the EU as a single entity, rather than as individual nations.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 15, 2020)

Also, there's a thing going round correlating woman leaders with more successful management of the epidemic. Let's graph that too.


----------



## Doodler (Apr 15, 2020)

About the escaped bioweapon/germ warfare theory: if C19 had escaped from a Chinese research lab then it would seem likely that the authorities would have known and acted immediately. They may have even succeeded in suppressing both the epidemic and any knowledge of it, at least in the short term.

That's what happened in Russia. They invested a lot in germ warfare research during the Cold War, possibly as a result of having first used bioweapons (tularemia) during the defence of Stalingrad, for which some circumstantial evidence exists. In 1979 there was an anthrax outbreak in Sverdlovsk caused by an accident at a military lab. The Russian authorities claimed it was the result of contamination in a meat processing factory and this story stuck until 1992.


----------



## zahir (Apr 15, 2020)

WHO strategy update





__





						Strategic preparedness and response plan for the novel coronavirus
					

This strategic preparedness and response plan outlines the public health measures that the international community stands ready to provide to support all countries to prepare for and respond to 2019‑nCoV. The document takes what we have learned so far about the virus and translates that...




					www.who.int


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 15, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Also, there's a thing going round correlating woman leaders with more successful management of the epidemic. Let's graph that too.



I've seen a similar thing somewhere as well.
And I'd like to see more about that too. 
Germany's a significant one fair enough, but it must also influence that statistic significantly that New Zealand and Iceland are part of it ... (??)


----------



## kabbes (Apr 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> He’s not just a random journalist. Worth following the discussions on his graphs if data is something your interested in.


The data he has chosen to graph has so many problems that if he’s claiming data expertise, that’s worrying.

Even if you cleaned up the data, though, the more fundamental problem is that it would only act to confirm the biases inherent in the way you cleaned it.  We have a qualitative understanding of the way this virus spreads that is way richer than some blunt quantitative measures with problems in it.  So we use our qualitative understanding to clean the quantitative measure and lo!  We end up confirming what we already qualitatively understood.  It’s begging the question.

If you wanted to do this properly, you’d need to standardise the data, because littlebabyjesus is right — smaller data sets are inherently more variable, so the smallest sets will always be to and bottom of a list that derived from the same underlying distribution.  So that means understanding the intrinsic correlation — how well a dataset correlate with itself as it grows. And you’d need to allow for skewness, particularly because dependency is unlikely to follow a Gaussian copula (ie ranknormal correlation).  And then you need to recognise the “hot spot” issue that teuchter is talking about.

In short, cleaning this data is such a big job that all it does is feed to you back the assumptions you made in cleaning it.

And yes, I’m interested in data.  Professionally, not because it’s fun.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> that’s what two sheds said



No he's right, I was saying that - I should have said "looks more down to government policy".


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 15, 2020)

My biggest problem with all these graphs is that, for the most part, the raw data is obviously a load of old fucking bollocks. 

There can be no way that countries like India and Brazil have the faintest idea of how many covid-19 related deaths they have even if they really wanted to be up front and honest about it.  Any countries that have large slum dwelling and rural poor will simply have no means to count.  That's before government starts cooking the books as they have been doing in pretty much every country.


----------



## elbows (Apr 15, 2020)

Doodler said:


> About the escaped bioweapon/germ warfare theory: if C19 had escaped from a Chinese research lab then it would seem likely that the authorities would have known and acted immediately. They may have even succeeded in suppressing both the epidemic and any knowledge of it, at least in the short term.



How does that work?  A major feature of accidental lab releases is that they are often not noticed until the broad health implications for the population start to show up in dramatic ways (in this case viral pneumonia and death in quantities that alerted local hospitals). And there is expected to be a big lag between these things, which means by the time the authorities notice, infection is widespread. And this sort of scenario is more likely in a disease with high transmissibility and with a very wide range of outcomes including plenty of mild or asymptomatic cases. All it takes is for someone who works at the lab to get infected and not realise, and they can easily spread it to the community in which they live.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 15, 2020)

kabbes said:


> The data he has chosen to graph has so many problems that if he’s claiming data expertise, that’s worrying.
> 
> Even if you cleaned up the data, though, the more fundamental problem is that it would only act to confirm the biases inherent in the way you cleaned it.  We have a qualitative understanding of the way this virus spreads that is way richer than some blunt quantitative measures with problems in it.  So we use our qualitative understanding to clean the quantitative measure and lo!  We end up confirming what we already qualitatively understood.  It’s begging the question.
> 
> ...


Yeah good point about assumptions. However, you can still get somewhere with that by making predictions based on those assumptions, no? 

For instance, in trying to work out where this is going (doing it for its own sake, not professionally), I've made a few basic and broad assumptions. First that lockdown works in reducing spread and differences in lockdown effectiveness due to differences in the details of implementation are relatively unimportant, so the main determining factor in a country's trajectory from lockdown onwards is the state it was in at lockdown (a state that we can only work out later). And second, adding on to that, that countries that test more will do better as they will have a better idea of where the problems are.

You can then make predictions about where things will go in a place by a) adding in further assumptions based on the various estimates of time-lag regarding incubation-time and getting very sick and dying time, and b) comparing its data on all the aspects relevant to these assumptions to how things have gone in other places. 

It seems to be broadly working, despite all the problems in the data.


----------



## kabbes (Apr 15, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yeah good point about assumptions. However, you can still get somewhere with that by making predictions based on those assumptions, no?
> 
> For instance, in trying to work out where this is going (doing it for its own sake, not professionally), I've made a few basic and broad assumptions. First that lockdown works in reducing spread and differences in lockdown effectiveness due to differences in the details of implementation are relatively unimportant, so the main determining factor in a country's trajectory from lockdown onwards is the state it was in at lockdown (a state that we can only work out later). And second, adding on to that, that countries that test more will do better as they will have a better idea of where the problems are.
> 
> ...


I agree.  You’re taking advantage of the fact that although the data has big problems, some of those problems (eg reporting lags) are fairly common across data sets.  Inaccuracies are not a big when they are consistent across time and across datasets.

Trying to correlate is where it gets stupid, because all the problems come home to roost.  You generally need 50 good quality data points to establish correlation even between two datasets that are each producing data that is consistent within the dataset.  Literally none of that applies when correlating population density to deaths for a handful of countries,

The evidence that it is nonsense is the results he turns up.  Do we really believe that number of deaths (which is actually a dependent variable, not merely a correlate) are independent to the exposure size (ie population)?  Or that the timing of the lockdown is essentially irrelevant (as pointed out by redsquirrel  because R-squared=0.15) ?  Either our understanding of the real world is flawed or those graphs are.


----------



## Supine (Apr 15, 2020)

Don’t disagree with any of that kabbes but this is an evolving situation and the modelling should be expected to develop as time goes by. This is what the experts are currently working on, to improve the modelling and therefore the understanding of the pandemic.

As acknowledged by the author there are problems with the data but it’s the best data we have at the moment. Understanding the problems with it hopefully allows better data sources to be developed.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 15, 2020)

Portugals schools closed  in the middle of last month but the new term started nationally yesterday online and via a channel that RTP ( sort of their BBC) agreed with the govt to be used. Are we doing anything similar in the UK?


----------



## kabbes (Apr 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> Don’t disagree with any of that kabbes but this is an evolving situation and the modelling should be expected to develop as time goes by. This is what the experts are currently working on, to improve the modelling and therefore the understanding of the pandemic.
> 
> As acknowledged by the author there are problems with the data but it’s the best data we have at the moment. Understanding the problems with it hopefully allows better data sources to be developed.


 The graphs posted on Twitter aren’t in any sense “modelling”.  He’s just bunged some uncleansed data through Excel to get a correlation factor.


----------



## Doodler (Apr 15, 2020)

elbows said:


> How does that work?  A major feature of accidental lab releases is that they are often not noticed until the broad health implications for the population start to show up in dramatic ways (in this case viral pneumonia and death in quantities that alerted local hospitals). And there is expected to be a big lag between these things, which means by the time the authorities notice, infection is widespread. And this sort of scenario is more likely in a disease with high transmissibility and with a very wide range of outcomes including plenty of mild or asymptomatic cases. All it takes is for someone who works at the lab to get infected and not realise, and they can easily spread it to the community in which they live.



The Russian authorities managed to suppress news of two lab-related anthrax outbreaks, Sverdlosk in 1979 and Kirov in 1953.

On the one hand, the Chinese authorities today are certainly as willing and perhaps almost as able as the old Russian communist party to suppress internal news unfavourable to their interests.

On the other hand, anthrax doesn't spread person-to-person like Covid-19 does, so an anthrax release would be much easier to contain.


----------



## elbows (Apr 15, 2020)

Exactly.


----------



## Doodler (Apr 15, 2020)

elbows said:


> Exactly.



For the sake of brevity I suggest:

C19 from a grotty food market: likely.
C19 from a medical/scientific research lab: possible.
C19 as escaped bioweapon: bollocks.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 15, 2020)

Doodler said:


> For the sake of brevity I suggest:
> 
> C19 from a grotty food market: likely.
> C19 from a medical/scientific research lab: possible.
> C19 as escaped bioweapon: bollocks.


FWIW US Joint Chiefs Chairman on the possibility it originated in a Chinese biolab: "At this point it’s inconclusive, although the weight of evidence seems to indicate natural, but we do not know for sure."


----------



## zahir (Apr 15, 2020)

EU roadmap for coming out of lockdown.









						EU Commission issues roadmap to lifting coronavirus containment measures - Keep Talking Greece
					

The European Commission had issued a so-called




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## editor (Apr 15, 2020)

Grim reading:


> The “wet” markets, which are found not only in China but also in some other East Asian countries, have a number of features that makes them especially conducive to spawning infectious zoonotic diseases. Live animals are housed in extremely cramped conditions until they are slaughtered in the market for those who have purchased them. In these conditions, infections are easily transmitted from one animal to another. Because new animals are regularly being brought to market, a disease can be spread through a chain of infection from one animal to others that arrive in the market much later. The proximity to humans, coupled with the flood of blood, excrement and other bodily fluids and parts, all facilitate the infection of humans. Once transmission from human to human occurs, an epidemic is the expected outcome, unless the problem is quickly contained. Global air travel can convert epidemic to pandemic within weeks or months — exactly as it did with the coronavirus.
> 
> It is these very conditions that facilitate the emergence of new infectious diseases and that also inflict horrific harms on animals — being kept in confined conditions and then butchered. Simply put, the coronavirus pandemic is a result of our gross maltreatment of animals.











						Opinion | Our Cruel Treatment of Animals Led to the Coronavirus (Published 2020)
					

The conditions that lead to the emergence of new infectious diseases are the same ones that inflict horrific harms on animals.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Doodler (Apr 15, 2020)

2hats said:


> FWIW US Joint Chiefs Chairman on the possibility it originated in a Chinese biolab: "At this point it’s inconclusive, although the weight of evidence seems to indicate natural, but we do not know for sure."



It seems obvious that's how the different likelihoods should be stacked. It could be a lab escape, but there are medical and bioscience labs in many countries. Zoonotic infectious outbreaks are strongly related to eating habits/food production - this New York Times article politely warns about outdated perceptions before confirming that eating anything that moves has its down side.


----------



## Brainaddict (Apr 15, 2020)

My German housemate was just telling me that in Germany everyone who thinks they might have COVID-19 is getting tested. An ambulance comes to your house, you're tested on the doorstep, and one to three days later you get the results. I'll be honest, it seems like a good system. It seems like the sort of thing you might do if you wanted to prevent the spread of a deadly virus.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 15, 2020)

Brainaddict said:


> My German housemate was just telling me that in Germany everyone who thinks they might have COVID-19 is getting tested. An ambulance comes to your house, you're tested on the doorstep, and one to three days later you get the results. I'll be honest, it seems like a good system. It seems like the sort of thing you might do if you wanted to prevent the spread of a deadly virus.


It also means their ever-decreasing numbers for 'new cases' are a meaningful reflection of the wider reality, unlike ours. 

That sounds like a fantastic system, and better than I've heard of elsewhere. In South Korea, for example, anyone can be tested, but it costs around 100 quid. You get the money back if you test positive.


----------



## Brainaddict (Apr 15, 2020)

Just found this detailed comparison of Germany and UK approaches. Germany is carrying out 500,000 tests a week. There are other differences too, like not being led by a narcissist, but I just think it's amazing that Germany has stuck to test and trace from the beginning and it's talked about in the UK as though it would be impossible.









						The Coronavirus Hit Germany And The UK Just Days Apart But The Countries Have Responded Differently.  Here’s How.
					

From a first case to thousands of deaths: A timeline of how Boris Johnson and Angela Merkel’s governments handled COVID-19.




					www.buzzfeed.com


----------



## teuchter (Apr 15, 2020)

And the Germans are allowed to go to garden centres and we aren't, pretty sure this must be part of the explanation too.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 15, 2020)

Racist scum:


----------



## little_legs (Apr 15, 2020)




----------



## Supine (Apr 15, 2020)

IMF and World Bank cancel all debt for 111 countries. Amazing.

Edited to remove fake news link........


----------



## elbows (Apr 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> IMF and World Bank cancel all debt for 111 countries. Amazing.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Doesnt look genuine to me.


----------



## elbows (Apr 15, 2020)

I mean, its got subversive activist running right through it.

eg:



> The Board noted that this relief should help mitigate disruptions to the supply chains of essential commodities for consumption in the developed world such as coffee and chocolate. Prevention of supply chain disruption is essential for timely delivery of medical supplies including scarce Personal Protection Equipment and medicines critical for developed countries as they fight the pandemic.





> Given the huge drop in commodity prices as a result of the crisis, countries that are economically dependent on fossil fuel revenues are experiencing the worst consequences as their economies crumble. For years, the Fund and other international financial institutions have advocated for extraction-based development regimes and policies that provide mechanisms for developing governments to turn their subsoil wealth into cash with the help of Western oil companies. The Fund acknowledged this history, noting that in developing countries around the world, the myth of fossil fuel-reliant “wealth” generation has become all too apparent.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 15, 2020)

elbows said:


> Doesnt look genuine to me.


You might expect it would be on their homepage but International Monetary Fund - Homepage it isn't although there is a mention of IMF Executive Board Approves Immediate Debt Relief for 25 Countries



> The countries that will receive debt service relief today are: Afghanistan, Benin, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, Congo, D.R., The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Nepal, Niger, Rwanda, São Tomé and Príncipe, Sierra Leone, Solomon Islands, Tajikistan, Togo, and Yemen.


----------



## Supine (Apr 15, 2020)

elbows said:


> Doesnt look genuine to me.



Think you might be right. I got that link from a politician. Fake news!


----------



## Cid (Apr 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> You might expect it would be on their homepage but International Monetary Fund - Homepage it isn't although there is a mention of IMF Executive Board Approves Immediate Debt Relief for 25 Countries



Small print: $500m of debt relief for 6 months. Weirdly $185m of which from the UK, so I suppose we did something right. And $100m from Japan.


----------



## little_legs (Apr 15, 2020)




----------



## circleline (Apr 16, 2020)

Doodler said:


> For the sake of brevity I suggest:
> 
> C19 from a grotty food market: likely.
> C19 from a medical/scientific research lab: possible.
> C19 as escaped bioweapon: bollocks.



Bats as food source have been around for (quite literally) millions of years.  Quite sure that in hard times and famine, bats would have yielded a nourishing soup for the starved and the starving. Surely any harmful zoonotic co-relations would have been thoroughly identified, condemned and outlawed by now..

Seems mean, nasty and simplistic to blame the bats at this late stage

((( Bats )))


----------



## Doodler (Apr 16, 2020)

circleline said:


> Quite sure that in hard times and famine, bats would have yielded a nourishing soup



Helps you see in the dark too.


----------



## NoXion (Apr 16, 2020)

circleline said:


> Bats as food source have been around for (quite literally) millions of years.  Quite sure that in hard times and famine, bats would have yielded a nourishing soup for the starved and the starving. Surely any harmful zoonotic co-relations would have been thoroughly identified, condemned and outlawed by now..
> 
> Seems mean, nasty and simplistic to blame the bats at this late stage
> 
> ((( Bats )))



He said "grotty food market" not "bats". If bats are involved it could have been as simple as one of them flying over the _open air market_, crapping on something and thus transmitting the virus that way.


----------



## NoXion (Apr 16, 2020)

circleline said:


> Surely any harmful zoonotic co-relations would have been thoroughly identified, condemned and outlawed by now.



No. Pork consumption is a known vector for _trichinella_ worms, yet it's still one of the most popular meats in the world.


----------



## Supine (Apr 16, 2020)

Finally some peer reviewed research into covid spread. For on first read it looks like the amount of spread when pre symptomatic makes contact tracing very difficult. Lots to take in though. 









						Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19 - Nature Medicine
					

Presymptomatic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is estimated to account for a substantial proportion of COVID-19 cases.




					www.nature.com


----------



## teqniq (Apr 16, 2020)

Fucking madness



from (you may have to use Tor browser to access this site outside of the U.S. I did)


----------



## weltweit (Apr 16, 2020)

Supine said:


> Finally some peer reviewed research into covid spread. For on first read it looks like the amount of spread when pre symptomatic makes contact tracing very difficult. Lots to take in though.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I will try to read it later, not got my thinking head on yet


----------



## Doodler (Apr 16, 2020)

April 14 article in the New York Times about evolving treatments for critically ill Covid patients. Less intubation, more keeping people awake and lying prone to breathe oxygen.


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 16, 2020)

Not Like the Flu, Not Like Car Crashes, Not Like
					

It’s about the spike.




					www.thenewatlantis.com


----------



## Louis MacNeice (Apr 16, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Fucking madness
> 
> View attachment 206988
> 
> from (you may have to use Tor browser to access this site outside of the U.S. I did)



That is _Dawn of the Dead_.

Cheers - Louis MacNeice


----------



## teqniq (Apr 16, 2020)

Louis MacNeice said:


> That is _Dawn of the Dead_.
> 
> Cheers - Louis MacNeice


A lot of people saying similar things, replying to the tweet


----------



## teqniq (Apr 16, 2020)

Hmmm, not good:









						US doctors find coronavirus damages kidneys and hearts as well as lungs
					

Clinicians around world have seen evidence Covid-19 is also causing heart inflammation, acute kidney disease, neurological malfunction, blood clots, intestinal damage and liver problems




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Part 2 (Apr 16, 2020)

Gun nuts on the streets in Michigan demanding to go to the shops and have their hair done.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 16, 2020)

Part 2 said:


> Gun nuts on the streets in Michigan demanding to go to the shops and have their hair done.


America has more than it's fair share of crazies. What with the people protesting opening shops that I posted on the previous page and yours. Also this first got posted yesterday.


----------



## sideboob (Apr 16, 2020)

Japan to shift to nationwide state of emergency | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News
					

The Japanese government is moving ahead with its decision to expand current areas under a state of emergency to everywhere across the country after it has received feedback from an advisory panel of experts.




					www3.nhk.or.jp
				



State of Emergency was just extended to include all of Japan. In effect until May 6th (at least).    Searching for English link atm....

I don`t know how to link


----------



## teqniq (Apr 16, 2020)

It's the 'o' in front of https. take it out.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 16, 2020)

fuck


----------



## kavenism (Apr 16, 2020)

Looks like No.10 is positioning to take advantage of the situation to allow the EU negotiation period to lapse. Which means we depart EU rules on WTO (No deal) terms. 
Just like they always wanted.

Downing St spokesperson said today


> We will not ask to extend the transition. And, if the EU asks, we will say no. Extending the transition would simply prolong the negotiations, prolong business uncertainty, and delay the moment of control of our borders. It would also keep us bound by EU legislation at a point when we need legislative and economic flexibility to manage the UK response to the coronavirus pandemic.


----------



## keybored (Apr 16, 2020)

circleline said:


> *Bats as food source have been around for (quite literally) millions of years*. Quite sure that in hard times and famine, bats would have yielded a nourishing soup for the starved and the starving. Surely any harmful zoonotic co-relations would have been thoroughly identified, condemned and outlawed by now..



Modern humans haven't though, nor has modern medicine. Even a couple of hundred years ago it wouldn't have been easy to identify someone eating a bat a few villages away as a source of a coronavirus epidemic. Nowadays we do know that bats are natural reservoirs for a host of nasty viruses.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 16, 2020)

kavenism said:


> Looks like No.10 is positioning to take advantage of the situation to allow the EU negotiation period to lapse. Which means we depart EU rules on WTO (No deal) terms.
> Just like they always wanted.
> 
> Downing St spokesperson said today


Wow that is shameless. And a total fantasy.


----------



## sideboob (Apr 16, 2020)

teqniq said:


> It's the 'o' in front of https. take it out.


 Thanks!


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 16, 2020)

kavenism said:
			
		

> Looks like No.10 is positioning to take advantage of the situation to allow the EU negotiation period to lapse. Which means we depart EU rules on WTO (No deal) terms.
> Just like they always wanted.
> Downing St spokesperson said today





littlebabyjesus said:


> Wow that is shameless. And a total fantasy.



To anyone half-way pragmatic or even half-way sane, postponing negotiations to allow at least _some_ chance of a semi-sensible deal, would be the best way forward at the moment.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 16, 2020)

Mustn't politicize coronavirus though eh what?


----------



## elbows (Apr 16, 2020)

I'm taking today off from posting about the pandemic, but found a link of interest so I am sharing it now.

Its for people who like to scratch their heads about the IMHE model & predictions. It shows how the predictions from that model have changed over time.





__





						COVID Projections Tracker
					






					www.covid-projections.com


----------



## two sheds (Apr 16, 2020)

You're getting corona postage withdrawal symptoms admit it: sweaty palms, dry mouth, shaking hands.


----------



## prunus (Apr 16, 2020)

keybored said:


> Modern humans haven't though, nor has modern medicine. Even a couple of hundred years ago it wouldn't have been easy to identify someone eating a bat a few villages away as a source of a coronavirus epidemic. Nowadays we do know that bats are natural reservoirs for a host of nasty viruses.



Bats are also interesting in that they have incredibly vigorous rapidly adapting immune systems, which means that the coronaviruses that co-evolve along with them are “forced” to evolve rapidly as well, so entirely new strains, some of which can jump species, are coming into existence all the time.


----------



## elbows (Apr 16, 2020)

two sheds said:


> You're getting corona postage withdrawal symptoms admit it: sweaty palms, dry mouth, shaking hands.



Not really!

But there is a good twitter thread that explains part of how the IMHE model works, and likely how it is flawed as a result.


----------



## little_legs (Apr 16, 2020)

The use of 'appetizing' is somethin'


----------



## weltweit (Apr 16, 2020)

William Hague: China must cooperate over source of Covid-19 outbreak


> “The whole world wants the scientific truth about this. However that happens, we want that scientific consensus, including Chinese scientists, about where it arose and how it probably arose in terms of the ‘wet markets’ in Wuhan,” Hague said.
> 
> “There are alternative theories, but I have not seen a credible alternative theory that does not have it coming out of China somehow. The world is hungry for the truth – on that we are on all on the same page.”


from 14/04/2020 William Hague: China must cooperate over source of Covid-19 outbreak

China reports no Covid-19 deaths for first time


> China is concerned a second wave of infections could be brought in by foreign arrivals.
> 
> It has already shut its border to foreigners including those with visas or residence permits.
> 
> International flights have been reduced with both Chinese and foreign airlines only allowed to operate one international flight a week. Flights must not be more than 75% full.





> ..
> On Wednesday, Wuhan is set to allow people to leave the city for the first time since the lockdown began in January.
> 
> Officials say anyone who has a "green" code on a widely used smartphone health app will be allowed to leave the city.


from 07/04/2020 China records no new virus deaths for first time


----------



## weltweit (Apr 16, 2020)

Germany 

Why have the UK and Germany taken different approaches to Covid-19 testing?


> In February, the UK and Germany were taking a similar approach to testing for coronavirus. But over the subsequent weeks, the two countries began to go in very different directions.
> ..
> Last Friday the UK daily coronavirus death toll reached 980, surpassing the deadliest days of Spain and Italy. It is too soon to understand the reasons why, but one criticism of the UK’s response to the outbreak is the lack of testing, while Germany, which has a much lower death rate, has been hailed as an example for carrying out hundreds of thousands of tests every week.


from (audio) Why have the UK and Germany taken different approaches to Covid-19 testing? – podcast

Half of refugees at German camp test Covid-19 positive


> Nearly half of the roughly 600 people at a refugee camp in Germany have tested positive for Covid-19, but are being forced to share facilities with everyone else.
> ..
> District authorities at Ostalbkreis, where Ellwangen is located, announced they will eventually retest everyone "in order to determine which persons have become additionally infected."
> 
> The entire camp has been placed in lockdown since the start of April, with police guarding the entrance to make sure no one leaves or enters.


from 16/04/2020 [Coronavirus] Half of refugees at German camp test Covid-19 positive


----------



## weltweit (Apr 16, 2020)

And Germany are starting to relax some of their measures. Apparently some schools will open and some smaller shops although pubs cafes etc will remain closed.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 16, 2020)

It’s 8pm and the neighbours are out blowing whistles, banging pans and blasting music!


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 16, 2020)

Interesting article from the NYT - also features an amazing picture of coronavirus attacking a cell.









						Most New York Coronavirus Cases Came From Europe, Genomes Show
					

Travelers seeded multiple cases starting as early as mid-February, genomes show.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## agricola (Apr 16, 2020)

Part 2 said:


> Gun nuts on the streets in Michigan demanding to go to the shops and have their hair done.



"_give me liberty and give me death_", as Fox reports Patrick Henry once said


----------



## Ax^ (Apr 16, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Interesting article from the NYT - also features an amazing picture of coronavirus attacking a cell.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



So Trumps China flight Ban had fuck all effect is that what your trying to say Marty1

or  are you just randomly posting link to MSN news outlets with fuck all content


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 16, 2020)

Portuguese State of Emergency renewed but CP voted against calling for the protection of health and of workers rights, Left Bloc voted for but said this would be the last .
After the debate the Socialist Party PM said :
*1st - "Our task at home needs some more time"
2nd - "We are the fourth country in Europe that tests the most per million people. But it is necessary to continue to stabilize the number of hospitalizations to ensure the response of the NHS"
3rd - To give "time and space to the Government to define criteria, study and prepare for the end of April the gradual opening of the economy. With the concern to create confidence and security for the Portuguese".*

The debate now will focus on health protection for those industries and businesses that are allowed to open and when alongside transport , enclosed spaces , public services such as schools and crèches. It looks like what ever relaxations might be considered next month they are going to be gradual. Strong  hint that opening of non essential shops and bars is going to start with a localised approach .


----------



## weltweit (Apr 16, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Interesting article from the NYT - also features an amazing picture of coronavirus attacking a cell.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What I find most interesting in that article, yes that many NY infections originated in Europe rather than China .. but the really interesting bit is:


> Maciej Boni of Penn State University and his colleagues recently used this method to see where the coronavirus, designated SARS-CoV-2, came from in the first place. While conspiracy theories might falsely claim the virus was concocted in a lab, the virus’s genome makes clear that it arose in bats.
> 
> There are many kinds of coronaviruses, which infect both humans and animals. Dr. Boni and his colleagues found that the genome of the new virus contains a number of mutations in common with strains of coronaviruses that infect bats.


----------



## elbows (Apr 16, 2020)

So Bolsonaro did go so far as to fire his health minister after all. I wonder what shit will hit the fan as a result.









						Bolsonaro fires popular health minister after dispute over coronavirus response
					

Luiz Mandetta defended physical distancing while Bolsonaro has downplayed impact of coronavirus and called for measures to be relaxed




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## sunnysidedown (Apr 16, 2020)

weltweit said:


> What I find most interesting in that article, yes that many NY infections originated in Europe rather than China .. but the really interesting bit is:



If only we spent most of day hanging upside down like bats, it's no wonder our lungs get easily infected.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

> Wuhan, where the virus emerged, revises its death toll up by 1,290 to 3,869 - an increase of 50%
> Chinese foreign ministry says statistics have been reviewed and denies any cover-up
> Meanwhile, Chinese economy shrinks for first time in decades due to virus impact


from live https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52319956

China adds nearly 1,300 coronavirus deaths to official Wuhan toll, blaming reporting delays 


> Authorities in Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, have revised up the number of people killed by 1,290, a rise of 50 per cent.
> ..
> China’s move is likely to fuel speculation about the accuracy of its data, which has been questioned by President Donald Trump. American intelligence officials have concluded that China concealed the extent of its outbreak and under-reported the number of cases and deaths.





> ..
> Wuhan has suffered the vast majority of China's fatalities from the coronavirus. The revision brings the nationwide death toll to 4,636.


from 17/04/2020 China adds nearly 1,300 coronavirus deaths to official Wuhan toll, blaming reporting delays


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 17, 2020)

I still don't believe their figures.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 17, 2020)

An increase of 50%.  I do like a nice round number.  Nothing suspicious at all.  

_- We're getting a bit of stick over our obviously dodgy numbers
- Oh, just whack another 50% on then._


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> I still don't believe their figures.


No, me neither .. 

Though my not believing their figures doesn't mean they didn't do a good job supressing the virus. I think their lockdown was more stringent than ours, and their contact tracing also sounds like it was a serious business.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Though my not believing their figures doesn't mean they didn't do a good job supressing the virus. I think their lockdown was more stringent than ours, and their contact tracing also sounds like it was a serious business.



Just a shame they didn't apply it earlier they could have saved millions of lives worldwide.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Just a shame they didn't apply it earlier they could have saved millions of lives worldwide.


Did you say millions for effect? or do you genuinely feel deaths will reach millions? At the moment the global death toll that is registered is 147,508 (from Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,196,569 Cases and 147,509 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer) I suppose we haven't yet seen large outbreaks in India, South America, Africa .. so there will be lots more to come.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Did you say millions for effect? or do you genuinely feel deaths will reach millions? At the moment the global death toll that is registered is 147,508 (from Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,196,569 Cases and 147,509 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer) I suppose we haven't yet seen large outbreaks in India, South America, Africa .. so there will be lots more to come.



I meant millions.  We'll never know the true figure because the poorer countries simply won't be able to count.  I've mentioned it before but countries like India and Brazil have large slums and large rural poor.  No one gives a fuck about them and no one will be recording what they died of.  And these are two of the theoretically wealthier countries.  What about Bangladesh?  What about the chaos that is Central America?  Laos? Cambodia only had one officially confirmed case weeks and weeks after the virus had spread like wildfire across SE and E Asia.

Our own country is clearly cooking the books to hide the bodies.  I have no doubt that is being replicated across the globe.


----------



## Anju (Apr 17, 2020)

A bit of good news from India. Early intervention and the best healthcare system in the country plus providing food seems to have contained the spread in Kerala. I had no idea that Kerala was a communist run state.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...52e470-783e-11ea-a311-adb1344719a9_story.html


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

Teaboy yes you could be right with poorer countries not counting. And slums will be easy to infect for this virus. 

Do you really think UK is trying to cook the books? I know the official figures they report at their 5pm briefing don't include care and home death, only being deaths in hospital but I believe they are totalling up care and home deaths ..


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Teaboy
> 
> Do you really think UK is trying to cook the books? I know the official figures they report at their 5pm briefing don't include care and home death, only being deaths in hospital but I believe they are totalling up care and home deaths ..



I do.  There is a question to consider though if you have limited testing who is more important a living person or a dead person? Quite frankly though they both need testing for obvious reasons.

The government has already said 'we' will do really well to keep the deaths in the low 20 thousands.  Who fancies a bet that is exactly what the official figures will say when all this is over?


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> The government has already said 'we' will do really well to keep the deaths in the low 20 thousands.  Who fancies a bet that is exactly what the official figures will say when all this is over?



They started off saying below 20,000. The figure has been largely absent recently. 

I dont think they will even keep the hospital deaths below that, let alone the other deaths which get picked up by the ONS.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I do.  There is a question to consider though if you have limited testing who is more important a living person or a dead person? Quite frankly though they both need testing for obvious reasons.


I gather ONS figures show figures that can be compared to deaths 12 months ago which might indicate how many more people overall are dying now, from whatever reasons. 



Teaboy said:


> The government has already said 'we' will do really well to keep the deaths in the low 20 thousands.  Who fancies a bet that is exactly what the official figures will say when all this is over?


I don't gamble  .. I don't know which model gave that estimation of 20k but there are some which give higher figures also. Because I have been mainly interested in what is happening around the world I haven't been focussing on the UK, but I believe recent death rates of 800 plus a day does suggest we will pass 20k and might go on after that .. 

Whatever, daily deaths exceed filling London's Nightingale's 500 beds and all of the occupants of each of those 500 beds dying and being moved to the mortuary - every single day - such visualisations are grim!


----------



## 2hats (Apr 17, 2020)

elbows said:


> They started off saying below 20,000. The figure has been largely absent recently.
> 
> I dont think they will even keep the hospital deaths below that, let alone the other deaths which get picked up by the ONS.


Still on target for the various UK models' ~49K (in the first wave alone).


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I gather ONS figures show figures that can be compared to deaths 12 months ago which might indicate how many more people overall are dying now, from whatever reasons.



Almost, they compare this years deaths to an average of deaths during the same week of the year, over a number of years, not just last year.


----------



## kabbes (Apr 17, 2020)

The official counts will obviously (and appropriately) never include the deaths that will occur due to an overloaded health system being unable to respond to non-covid related matters or the results of additional poverty due to lockdown or people not being able to do certain critical things at certain points in their lives.  But these are all consequences of the pandemic.  Out of eight billion people on the planet, it’s not unreasonable to think that 0.02% of them might die early as a result of this, giving us millions of deaths.


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

kabbes said:


> The official counts will obviously (and appropriately) never include the deaths that will occur due to an overloaded health system being unable to respond to non-covid related matters or the results of additional poverty due to lockdown or people not being able to do certain critical things at certain points in their lives.  But these are all consequences of the pandemic.  Out of eight billion people on the planet, it’s not unreasonable to think that 0.02% of them might die early as a result of this, giving us millions of deaths.



Some of the numbers wont show that, but so far in press conferences they have not really shied away from the subject of deaths from the pandemic/response to pandemic that were not deaths from Covid-19 directly. The subject of comparing the normal mortality rates to the mortality rate we actually end up with each week this year and further into the future is very much in tune with this, and it hasnt been hidden, its had some focus recently (mostly because it was only recently that we had any ONS data for the period, due to the lag).


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 17, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Just a shame they didn't apply it earlier they could have saved millions of lives worldwide.



Yep - they're an authoritarian state with highly advanced facial recognition technology etc., making them probably better poised than any country in the world to tightly control an outbreak. Instead, after concluding there was a likely pandemic, they didn't inform the public for six days, allowing millions of people to leave Wuhan for other parts of China and overseas - and allowed 40,000 families to try to break the record for the world's biggest banquet.









						Who says the New Year has no flavor? More than 40,000 families in Wuhan's Baibuting community dine together
					

Yesterday, Wuhan Jiangan District Baibuting community held the 20th Wanjia Banquet, more than 40,000 families out of 13986 dishes, we eat while chatting, enjoy the Lunar New Year. Chutian Metropolitan News Journalist Li Hui Taking a Wanjia Banquet Wu Shuzhen and her food 'Happy Canteen' Chutian...




					en.australia51.com


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 17, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I do.  There is a question to consider though if you have limited testing who is more important a living person or a dead person? Quite frankly though they both need testing for obvious reasons.
> 
> The government has already said 'we' will do really well to keep the deaths in the low 20 thousands.  Who fancies a bet that is exactly what the official figures will say when all this is over?


Nah. At some point they will have to add in the care home deaths. That would take it to nearly 20k right now. Looking at the patterns in other countries, even as new cases plummet, new deaths figures stay relatively high for a while due to those already infected/ill - some people don't die until well after a month from the date of infection. 

We'll be doing well from here to keep it below 30k, tbh, wrt to an honest figure that includes non-hospital deaths.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

Interesting developments in this chart. 



Not just China and South Korea exiting the growth line, also Australia and Hong Kong. 

from: Covid Trends


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Interesting developments in this chart.
> 
> View attachment 207242
> 
> ...


Not on there, but New Zealand would also be plummeting down. Their total eradication policy appears to be on track.


----------



## miss direct (Apr 17, 2020)

I don’t like wearing a mask. Glasses steam up, it feels hot, hard to breathe, no one can hear me when I’m asking for something in a shop. 

I can see it being made compulsory in the uk too so buy some now if you can.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Not on there, but New Zealand would also be plummeting down. Their total eradication policy appears to be on track.


Chart simplified and New Zealand Added


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Chart simplified and New Zealand Added
> 
> View attachment 207245


As a side point, while we clearly need a little caveat regarding different testing regimes, I like this way of representing things because it removes time from the variables. It's really visually obvious where countries have managed a meaningful change.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> As a side point, while we clearly need a little caveat regarding different testing regimes, I like this way of representing things because it removes time from the variables. It's really visually obvious where countries have managed a meaningful change.


I agree, I think the chart shows the key issue, I say bravo to the guy that came up with it.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 17, 2020)

miss direct said:


> I don’t like wearing a mask. Glasses steam up, it feels hot, hard to breathe, no one can hear me when I’m asking for something in a shop.
> 
> I can see it being made compulsory in the uk too so buy some now if you can.



Panic buy!  Panic buy!

In fairness as useless as our government is I can't see them making wearing a mask compulsory if you can't obtain one.


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Panic buy!  Panic buy!
> 
> In fairness as useless as our government is I can't see them making wearing a mask compulsory if you can't obtain one.



If the UK goes in that direction eventually then expect a big national DIY campaign, because we arent talking about medical grade masks for this particular mission.


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

More on the disgraceful situation with Singapore and its migrant worker dormitories outbreak:









						Coronavirus: Singapore spike reveals scale of migrant worker infections
					

Mass testing has revealed the extent of the spread amongst Singapore's migrant worker community.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> But 12 dormitories have been marked as isolation areas - no-one can enter or leave and workers are confined to their rooms, with meals delivered to them.
> 
> It's not clear how many of them currently share a room now during the quarantine period, but in 2015 the BBC visited a dormitory complex which housed 12 people per room.
> 
> Alex Au, of non-profit organisation Transient Workers Count Too (TWC2), told the BBC that there were sometimes as many as 17 people in a room.


----------



## miss direct (Apr 17, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Panic buy!  Panic buy!
> 
> In fairness as useless as our government is I can't see them making wearing a mask compulsory if you can't obtain one.


Here it's been rather chaotic. You're supposed to be able to register and then have 5 free masks delivered a week. The system crashed and nobody I know got their masks. It's also now supposedly illegal to sell masks. I've got one crappy black material one that I wear repeatedly when I go to the shops.


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 17, 2020)

More on Ecuador and in particular Guayaquil.

*6,000 extra deaths in two weeks in Ecuador province*
Ecuador's official coronavirus death toll is 403, but new figures from just one province suggest many thousands have died in the country.
The government said 6,700 people had died in the Guayas province alone in the first two weeks of April, far more than the usual 1,000 deaths there in the same period.
Guayas is home to the nation's largest city Guayaquil - the worst affected part of the country.
Footage obtained by the BBC earlier this week showed residents of the city forced to store bodies of relatives in their homes for up to five days. They said authorities had been unable to keep up with rate of death, leaving corpses wrapped in sheets in family homes and even on the street.
City authorities last week began distributing thousands of cardboard coffins and set up a dedicated helpline for families that needed a body removed from their home.


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

More criticism of the IHME model:









						Influential Covid-19 model uses flawed methods and shouldn't guide U.S. policies, critics say
					

A widely followed model for projecting #coronavirus deaths in the U.S. is producing results that have been bouncing up and down like an unpredictable fever.




					www.statnews.com
				






> Others experts, including some colleagues of the model-makers, are even harsher. “That the IHME model keeps changing is evidence of its lack of reliability as a predictive tool,” said epidemiologist Ruth Etzioni of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, home to several of the researchers who created the model, and who has served on a search committee for IHME. “That it is being used for policy decisions and its results interpreted wrongly is a travesty unfolding before our eyes.”


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 17, 2020)

elbows said:


> They started off saying below 20,000. The figure has been largely absent recently.
> 
> I dont think they will even keep the hospital deaths below that,



You meant to then say "in the first wave" didn't you?

Hospital deaths will go well over 15,000 *tomorrow*. So over 20,000 in what? 6-10 more days. In the first wave.


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> You meant to then say "in the first wave" didn't you?
> 
> Hospital deaths will go well over 15,000 *tomorrow*. So over 20,000 in what? 6-10 more days. In the first wave.



I dont have anything in mind in regards subsequent waves, hopefully the future approach means there wont be anything in the future that I would describe as a wave again, although there will be ongoing deaths.

The 20,000 claim is about a month old now and I didnt think much of it when it was first made, it was a stupid thing for them to say. I do need to go back at some point and see what the exact wording of their claim was, I dont remember if waves were involved for example. Whatever the detail, they arent going to live up to it, and contrary to some peoples understandable fears some weeks back, I dont think they are going to be able to try to blame the public for that.


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 17, 2020)

elbows said:


> I dont have anything in mind in regards subsequent waves, hopefully the future approach means there wont be anything in the future that I would describe as a wave again, although there will be ongoing deaths.
> 
> The 20,000 claim is about a month old now and I didnt think much of it when it was first made, it was a stupid thing for them to say. I do need to go back at some point and see what the exact wording of their claim was, I dont remember if waves were involved for example. Whatever the detail, they arent going to live up to it, and contrary to some peoples understandable fears some weeks back, I dont think they are going to be able to try to blame the public for that.



FYI 

It was Stephen Powis, NHS England medical director, who first said,



> If we can keep deaths below 20,000 we will have done very well in this epidemic



It was 27/28 March and deaths had just gone over 1,000. As you can see there was no reference to a 'wave' but he did say 'epidemic' not 'pandemic'.


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

Thanks, but on March 17th:



> And Sir Patrick told the Commons’ Health and Social Care Committee that keeping the death toll from the outbreak below 20,000 would represent a “good outcome”.











						Up to 55,000 people could be infected with coronavirus in UK, government says
					

Lockdown measures should keep death toll down, but a ‘good outcome’ would still see as many as 20,000 fatalities, says chief scientific adviser




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## 8ball (Apr 17, 2020)

Is there a good dashboard for UK figures now?

I was using the gov.uk one, but they've changed it in a way that looks like a transparent attempt to hide the numbers (though I expect it is just common or garden incompetence).


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

In case anyone is interested it seems Trump's press conferences are relayed on YouTube. Yesterday's is here:



I don't think they are standing so close together in the actual video.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

South Korea 

Why the UK could still learn from South Korea on how to tackle Covid-19


> The political class may be wrong to assume that the British public are opposed to a more intrusive approach.
> ..
> One reason why the debate over how the United Kingdom navigates the age of Covid-19 should be held in public is that the country might well have a different view of the measures adopted in South Korea than the government thinks.


from 16/04/2020 Why the UK could still learn from South Korea on how to tackle Covid-19

Not a very in depth article, the main issue, UK population may not mind more intrusive measures.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

South Korea 

'In South Korea, patients cured of Covid-19 have tested positive later,' FM tells FRANCE 24


> In an interview with FRANCE 24, South Korea's Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha discussed her country’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic
> ..
> However, Kang warned that some patients in South Korea who had been cured of Covid-19 have "tested positive" a few days later.





> ..
> Asked if she feared a second wave of the virus, she admitted that "(of) those fully cured and released, many of them have been found to test positive a few days after", stressing that the nature of the virus was still not fully known.
> ..
> Kang said the idea of a mandatory lockdown would not be acceptable to South Koreans and that the country did not impose one even when there was an early outbreak of the virus in February. "The idea of a mandatory blockade would be contrary to our principle of openness," she explained.





> She hailed the World Health Organization as "a very collaborative and very helpful partner" during the crisis, refusing to endorse US President Donald Trump's criticism of the organisation.


from 13/04/2020 The Interview - 'In South Korea, patients cured of Covid-19 have tested positive later,' FM tells FRANCE 24


----------



## Mation (Apr 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> In case anyone is interested it seems Trump's press conferences are relayed on YouTube. Yesterday's is here:
> 
> 
> 
> I don't think they are standing so close together in the actual video.



They took the photo, though. And there's an intruding shoulder on the left, almost exactly 2 imperial meters away from Trump


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

More on South Korea and these reinfections. 

In South Korea, A Growing Number Of COVID-19 Patients Test Positive After Recovery


> By Friday, Korean health authorities had identified 163 patients who tested positive again after a full recovery. The number more than doubled in about a week, up from 74 cases on April 9. Those patients — just over 2% of the country's 7,829 recovered patients — are now back in isolation.
> ..
> To find out reasons for relapse, South Korean health authorities are running a range of tests and vetting various scenarios. The World Health Organization said last week that it is investigating the issue. While a fuller analysis will take at least a few weeks, early findings suggest there can be more than one cause.





> Top KCDC officials said in recent briefings that the most likely possibility is reactivation of remaining viruses in patients' systems. If a patient had not developed sufficient immunity against the virus or if a patient's immune system weakens after recovery, the previously undetectable level of virus concentration could rebound. Or the novel coronavirus may be capable of staying dormant before reactivating.
> ..
> Another possibility is that tests are picking up dead virus particles that are no longer infectious or transmissible.


from 17/04/2020 NPR Choice page


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

Mation said:


> They took the photo, though. And there's an intruding shoulder on the left, almost exactly 2 imperial meters away from Trump


They are now distancing both the presenters and journalists, I have just been looking at that video (from yesterday) and they are being more careful. eta scratch that, they are still very close together .. dummies 

The jist of the press conference is that states can start phased openings of their economies, with guidelines provided by the federal government.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Hmmm, not good:
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Also possible brain involvement.









						Coronavirus Might Attack the Brain, Too
					

Strange gets stranger as Covid-19 now appears to invade more than the respiratory and digestive systems




					elemental.medium.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

SheilaNaGig that medium.com link doesn't work for me.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

Germany 

Coronavirus 'under control' in Germany, as some countries plan to relax lockdowns 


> Health minister says Germany will produce 50m face masks a week by the summer
> ..
> Germany has declared its coronavirus outbreak under control as it prepares to take its first tentative steps out of lockdown next week, while several European countries unveiled contact-tracing mobile apps aimed at facilitating a gradual return to a more normal life.





> ..
> Smaller shops in Germany are due to reopen from Monday with some pupils set to return to school on 4 May, although other restrictions will remain in place including bans on gatherings of more than two people in public and on large public events.
> ..
> Spahn said Germany, which has recorded 138,000 cases and nearly 4,100 deaths, would be producing up to 50m face masks a week by August, which the public would be “strongly recommended” to wear, adding that a contact-tracing app would be available for download within three to four weeks.


from 17/04/2020 Coronavirus 'under control' in Germany, as some countries plan to relax lockdowns

And 

Germany says its outbreak is 'under control'


> Germany's health minister says the month-long lockdown has brought his country's coronavirus outbreak under control.
> 
> Jens Spahn said that since 12 April the number of recovered patients had been consistently higher than the number of new infections.





> ..
> In Germany 3,868 have died of Covid-19 - fewer than in Italy, Spain or France.
> 
> However, the number of fatalities is still rising in Germany, as is the number of infected health care workers.
> ...





> But Mrs Merkel warned there was "little margin for error" and that "caution should be the watchword". Sports and leisure facilities, as well as cafes and restaurants, will remain closed indefinitely.


from 17/04/2020 Germany coronavirus outbreak 'under control'


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

A disagreement on German fatalities across the two articles above. 

So Germany will be producing 50m face masks per week - that sounds like a good idea, I bet UK could have such an initiative, anyone heard of such an initiative?


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> SheilaNaGig that medium.com link doesn't work for me.




Don’t know why. It works for me.

I’ll cut and paste it though.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

*Coronavirus Might Attack the Brain, Too*
*Strange gets stranger as Covid-19 now appears to invade more than the respiratory and digestive systems*



Robert Roy Britt
Follow
Apr 9 · 4 min read


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

Early analyses of Covid-19 patients in January told of the most common symptoms: fever, cough, and difficulty breathing. More diagnosed cases and research revealed less common symptoms, such as vomiting and diarrhea, indicating that in some people, the coronavirus was disrupting the digestive system, not just the respiratory tract.

By late February, we learned of mysterious cases involving no symptoms at all — silent super-spreaders of a deadly disease who didn’t even know they had it and felt nothing. Then, last month, things got stranger, as reports emerged of diagnosed Covid-19 cases in people who had lost their sense of smell yet showed few or no other symptoms of the disease. Along the way, physicians reported some people with Covid-19 experiencing mild cold- or flu-like symptoms, ranging from sniffles to fatigue.

And yet it’s still getting stranger. SARS‐CoV‐2, the coronavirus that causes Covid-19, appears to be attacking people’s brains.



> It’s not yet clear how SARS-CoV-2 might be affecting the brain, but experience with other viruses, including the flu, suggests it certainly could make its way there.


Evidence so far, however, involves only anecdotes from physicians telling of Covid-19 patients initially experiencing confusion, headaches, and other symptoms that may be caused by inflammation of the brain, along with early studies involving small numbers of patients — sometimes just one.

Meanwhile, it’s not clear whether or to what extent the coronavirus attacks the brain directly versus Covid-19’s respiratory effects robbing the brain of oxygen.

“It is very difficult to separate the two,” says Chethan Rao, MD, a practicing physician and associate professor of neurology and neurosurgery at Baylor College of Medicine Medical Center.

Rao suspects both factors are at work. And things can deteriorate quickly. He has seen otherwise healthy Covid-19 patients go from talking normally while receiving a small amount of oxygen to being put on first a ventilator and then a more serious heart-lung support system, all in the space of four hours.

*Multiple cases reported*
The possibility that Covid-19 is invading the brain directly emerged back in February in a study out of Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the initial outbreak. Then, in March, researchers raised the possibility in the Journal of Medical Virology, stating that this coronavirus, SARS‐CoV‐2, is similar to others that “are not always confined to the respiratory tract and… may also invade the central nervous system inducing neurological diseases.”

Recently, a woman in her late fifties who had experienced three days of cough, fever, and “altered mental status” was tested for flu, which she did not have. Turns out she had Covid-19. Brain scans showed unusual swelling, and physicians diagnosed it as acute necrotizing hemorrhagic encephalopathy, which is “a rare central nervous system complication secondary to influenza or other viral infections which is characterized by altered mental status and seizures, and often this further leads to profound disability or death.”

Other tests were done on the woman to eliminate some other viruses that might cause the diagnosed condition. (Influenza is known to cause, in some cases, encephalitis and its neurological consequences, such as strokes and seizures, Rao says.)

“This is the first reported case of Covid-19-associated acute necrotizing hemorrhagic encephalopathy,” the physicians, from the Henry Ford Health System in Detroit, concluded on March 31 in the journal Radiology. “As the number of patients with Covid-19 increases worldwide, clinicians and radiologists should be watching for this presentation among patients presenting with Covid-19 and altered mental status.”

In another case, a 74-year-old man with preexisting neurological conditions had suddenly lost his ability to speak. He was ultimately diagnosed with Covid-19. “Since Covid-19 affects the elderly more and those with preexisting conditions, patients with prior neurological conditions and acute respiratory symptoms are at an increased risk of encephalopathy on initial presentation,” his physicians wrote.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

*Getting into the brain*
It’s not yet clear how SARS-CoV-2 might be affecting the brain, but experience with other viruses, including the flu, suggests it certainly could make its way there, Rao and others say.
SARS-CoV-2 is rather sneaky, a new study in the journal Nature suggests. The virus enters human cells through a certain type of cell receptor. It appears to often hold initially in the upper respiratory system, mainly in the throat, without typically causing many symptoms there.
Then, in cases destined to become more severe, the virus migrates into the lungs and/or the stomach.
The cells with the right receptors for SARS-CoV-2 are found extensively in the lungs, Rao tells Elemental, explaining why breathing problems are common in severe Covid-19 cases. But those receptors are also found in blood vessels in the blood-brain barrier and in nerve endings, he explains.
“It is definitely possible that the nervous system is being invaded through these means,” Rao says.
Until more definitive research can be done, Covid-19’s mysterious ways are an ever-moving target, says Peter Gulick, DO, an oncologist and infectious disease specialist at Michigan State University’s College of Osteopathic Medicine. And he’s not ready to accept the case studies as proof of what might be happening.
“Acute encephalitis is not a known presentation of Covid-19, even though it has presented with other coronaviruses,” Gulick says by email. “But we will have to continue to follow cases to see if any neurological conditions do occur as a result of Covid-19.”


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

WHO Covid Press Conference 17/04/2020


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

So it seems Lady Gaga is producing a concert or some kind of online event

One World Together At Home

Which will take place this Saturday and seems in part or main to be a fund raiser.









						BBC One - One World: Together at Home
					

Highlights of One World: Together at Home, a concert tribute to healthcare workers.




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 17, 2020)

Sure I read somewhere on here mention that Trump has hinted recently about the virus originating from a lab.

Anyway, it may have originated from some leaked (intelligence) cables according to this:









						State Department leaked cables renew theories on origin of coronavirus
					

A Chinese laboratory at the center of new theories about how the coronavirus pandemic started was the subject of multiple urgent warnings inside the U.S. State Department two years ago, according to a new report.




					www.foxnews.com


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 17, 2020)

Who gives a flying fuck what latest theory Trump is blurting out?


----------



## two sheds (Apr 17, 2020)

Good to see Marty showing his independent thought and not being brainwashed by MSM sources


----------



## Supine (Apr 17, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Sure I read somewhere on here mention that Trump has hinted recently about the virus originating from a lab.
> 
> Anyway, it may have originated from some leaked (intelligence) cables according to this:
> 
> ...



Trump probably used his world class understanding of generic sequencing and analysis of virus mutations to prove this story is true.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Sure I read somewhere on here mention that Trump has hinted recently about the virus originating from a lab.
> 
> Anyway, it may have originated from some leaked (intelligence) cables according to this:
> 
> ...



No.
This is not true.


If you follow the links for this story it’s all Fox, the Daily Mail, and the rest of the predicatable jerk circle partisan prejudiced scaremongers.


There is no credible evidence for this story.









						Did coronavirus come from a lab?
					

The coronavirus is not a bioweapon and most likely originated in animals. However, whether the virus may have leaked from a lab is also being investigated.




					www.newscientist.com
				




New diseases have emerged throughout human history, and we have seen two major coronavirus outbreaks in the last two decades: SARS and MERS. So we shouldn’t be surprised by the arrival of the covid-19 virus.

However, rumours on social media suggest that the outbreak was human-made. Some say the virus leaked from a Chinese lab studying coronaviruses. Others suggest the virus was engineered to spread among humans.

Even the most secure laboratories do sometimes have accidents, and a human-engineered pandemic has been identified as a possible risk to our civilisation, but there is no good evidence that either has happened.

Many similar viruses are found in wild bats, and it seems likely that is the origin of this one, probably via an intermediate host. Similarly, we know that both SARS and MERS came from bats, so there is no reason to invoke a laboratory accident.

Researchers led by Shan-Lu Liu at the Ohio State University say there is “no credible evidence” of genetic engineering (Emerging Microbes & Infections, doi.org/dpvw). The virus’s genome has been sequenced, and if it had been altered, we would expect to see signs of inserted gene sequences. But we now know the points that differ from bat viruses are scattered in a fairly random way, just as they would be if the new virus had evolved naturally.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Sure I read somewhere on here mention that Trump has hinted recently about the virus originating from a lab.
> ..


There have been a number of articles mentioning this as a possibility, even though dna analysis suggests strongly that the virus originated in bats. Of course it could have originated in bats and still have been released from a lab, the two are not mutually exclusive.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 17, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> No.
> This is not true.
> 
> 
> ...



Im not discounting the info you’ve posted from the new scientist and appreciate it.

But going back to your first paragraph regarding the     credibility of the sources of this story - according to Fox, this story originated from The Washington Post.



> U.S. Embassy officials warned in January 2018 about inadequate safety at the Wuhan Institute of Virology lab and passed on information about scientists conducting risky research on coronavirus from bats, The Washington Post reported Tuesday.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

[QUOTE="Marty1, post: 16502450, member: 7870]
Im not discounting the info you’ve posted from the new scientist and appreciate it.

But going back to your first paragraph regarding the     credibility of the sources of this story - according to Fox, this story originated from The Washington Post.
[/QUOTE]


I can’t read that article because it’s behind a paywall; have you read it Marty1 ?

The quote in your post says that there were concerns in 2018 about safety and risky research. It says nothing about a leak.

It’s just wrong to extrapolate “there was a leak in 2019” from “there were concerns in 2018”.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 17, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> [QUOTE="Marty1, post: 16502450, member: 7870]
> Im not discounting the info you’ve posted from the new scientist and appreciate it.
> 
> But going back to your first paragraph regarding the     credibility of the sources of this story - according to Fox, this story originated from The Washington Post.




I can’t read that article because it’s behind a paywall; have you read it Marty1 ?

The quote in your post says that there were concerns in 2018 about safety and risky research. It says nothing about a leak.

It’s just wrong to extrapolate “there was a leak in 2019” from “there were concerns in 2018”.
[/QUOTE]

No, same as you, it’s locked behind a paywall.

May just be a load of shit but thought it of note, especially the ‘leaked cables’ angle.  Last time leaked cables hit the news was the whole WikiLeaks thing iirc.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

India - Mumbai 

Anita Jain: Covid-19—lockdown in Mumbai


> Mumbai has over twice the population of New York or London, with a land area less than half that of London. Over 18 million people inhabit this city. This is about a third of the population of Italy with less than 0.02% of its land area. The fear of spread of disease in Mumbai’s slums and likely impact on the population and health services is very real.





> ..
> I gather the situation is similar to lockdown elsewhere, based on news and reports. We are staring at economic challenges, equally urgent but unattended medical needs, mental health challenges of living under lockdown and learning to live with each other in families, and more.





> ..
> Municipal workers, police personnel, and health workers who often go unnoticed, and not infrequently bear the brunt of public angst and criticism, are finally being given due recognition for their relentless service in a crisis. It was a sight to behold when residents in Mumbai’s towering skyscrapers clapped and clanged utensils to make some noise for these services while those in adjoining slums responded with equal vigour in unison. Yes, we are united in this fight, as humans. And one thing helps us go day after another day. Hope.


from 15/04/2020 Anita Jain: Covid-19—lockdown in Mumbai - The BMJ


----------



## two sheds (Apr 17, 2020)

There has been some positive news from all of this  









						Brazil: judge bans missionaries from indigenous reserve over Covid-19 fears
					

Indigenous leaders and activists hailed ‘historic’ decision after three missionaries and controversial group barred




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Im not discounting the info you’ve posted from the new scientist and appreciate it.
> 
> But going back to your first paragraph regarding the     credibility of the sources of this story - according to Fox, this story originated from The Washington Post.




Was it you who posted that NY Times article about American cases coming from Europe not Asia? Did you read that? That article also talked about this conspiracy story about the virus being leaked, and dismissed it.

The genome of virus is being scrutinised by virologists all over the world in an effort to understand it and find a way to fight it. Not one of those teams has reported seeing anything that doesn't look right. No-one studying the genome has said anything approaching "Hmm... Wait a minute! This shouldn't be here! here's something going on here..." which is what would happen if the genome had been messed with by humans. The genome of this virus is completely in keeping with what would be expected in a bat coronavirus.



That FOX link linked to the Daily bloody Mail. I've now clicked on the browse for free thing for the Washington Post and I'll copy the linked article below. You'll see that it does not say that the virus came from the Wuhan lab. It says that there were concerns.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/04/14/state-department-cables-warned-safety-issues-wuhan-lab-studying-bat-coronaviruses/
		




*State Department cables warned of safety issues at Wuhan lab studying bat coronaviruses*






A woman wearing a protective suit at a hospital in Wuhan, China. (Aly Song/Reuters)



By 
Josh Rogin 
Columnist
April 14, 2020 at 11:00 a.m. GMT+1
Two years before the novel coronavirus pandemic upended the world, U.S. Embassy officials visited a Chinese research facility in the city of Wuhan several times and sent two official warnings back to Washington about inadequate safety at the lab, which was conducting risky studies on coronaviruses from bats. The cables have fueled discussions inside the U.S. government about whether this or another Wuhan lab was the source of the virus — even though conclusive proof has yet to emerge.
In January 2018, the U.S. Embassy in Beijing took the unusual step of repeatedly sending U.S. science diplomats to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), which had in 2015 become China’s first laboratory to achieve the highest level of international bioresearch safety (known as BSL-4). WIV issued a news release in English about the last of these visits, which occurred on March 27, 2018. The U.S. delegation was led by Jamison Fouss, the consul general in Wuhan, and Rick Switzer, the embassy’s counselor of environment, science, technology and health. Last week, WIV erased that statement from its website, though it remains archived on the Internet.
Full coverage of the coronavirus pandemic
What the U.S. officials learned during their visits concerned them so much that they dispatched two diplomatic cables categorized as Sensitive But Unclassified back to Washington. The cables warned about safety and management weaknesses at the WIV lab and proposed more attention and help. The first cable, which I obtained, also warns that the lab’s work on bat coronaviruses and their potential human transmission represented a risk of a new SARS-like pandemic.
AD


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

“During interactions with scientists at the WIV laboratory, they noted the new lab has a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory,” states the Jan. 19, 2018, cable, which was drafted by two officials from the embassy’s environment, science and health sections who met with the WIV scientists. (The State Department declined to comment on this and other details of the story.)

Opinion | U.S. diplomatic cables warned of Wuhan lab safety issues. The world needs answers.





Global Opinions writer Josh Rogin has obtained a 2018 U.S. diplomatic cable urging Washington to better support a Chinese lab researching bat coronaviruses. (Joshua Carroll, Kate Woodsome, Josh Rogin/The Washington Post)
The Chinese researchers at WIV were receiving assistance from the Galveston National Laboratory at the University of Texas Medical Branch and other U.S. organizations, but the Chinese requested additional help. The cables argued that the United States should give the Wuhan lab further support, mainly because its research on bat coronaviruses was important but also dangerous.
As the cable noted, the U.S. visitors met with Shi Zhengli, the head of the research project, who had been publishing studies related to bat coronaviruses for many years. In November 2017, just before the U.S. officials’ visit, Shi’s team had published research showing that horseshoe bats they had collected from a cave in Yunnan province were very likely from the same bat population that spawned the SARS coronavirus in 2003.
AD


Sign up for our Coronavirus Updates newsletter to track the outbreak. All stories linked in the newsletter are free to access.
“Most importantly,” the cable states, “the researchers also showed that various SARS-like coronaviruses can interact with ACE2, the human receptor identified for SARS-coronavirus. This finding strongly suggests that SARS-like coronaviruses from bats can be transmitted to humans to cause SARS-like diseases. From a public health perspective, this makes the continued surveillance of SARS-like coronaviruses in bats and study of the animal-human interface critical to future emerging coronavirus outbreak prediction and prevention.”
The research was designed to prevent the next SARS-like pandemic by anticipating how it might emerge. But even in 2015, other scientists questioned whether Shi’s team was taking unnecessary risks. In October 2014, the U.S. government had imposed a moratorium on funding of any research that makes a virus more deadly or contagious, known as “gain-of-function” experiments.
As many have pointed out, there is no evidence that the virus now plaguing the world was engineered; scientists largely agree it came from animals. But that is not the same as saying it didn’t come from the lab, which spent years testing bat coronaviruses in animals, said Xiao Qiang, a research scientist at the School of Information at the University of California at Berkeley.
AD


“The cable tells us that there have long been concerns about the possibility of the threat to public health that came from this lab’s research, if it was not being adequately conducted and protected,” he said.
There are similar concerns about the nearby Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention lab, which operates at biosecurity level 2, a level significantly less secure than the level-4 standard claimed by the Wuhan Insititute of Virology lab, Xiao said. That’s important because the Chinese government still refuses to answer basic questions about the origin of the novel coronavirus while suppressing any attempts to examine whether either lab was involved.
Sources familiar with the cables said they were meant to sound an alarm about the grave safety concerns at the WIV lab, especially regarding its work with bat coronaviruses. The embassy officials were calling for more U.S. attention to this lab and more support for it, to help it fix its problems.
AD


“The cable was a warning shot,” one U.S. official said. “They were begging people to pay attention to what was going on.”
No extra assistance to the labs was provided by the U.S. government in response to these cables. The cables began to circulate again inside the administration over the past two months as officials debated whether the lab could be the origin of the pandemic and what the implications would be for the U.S. pandemic response and relations with China.
Inside the Trump administration, many national security officials have long suspected either the WIV or the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention lab was the source of the novel coronavirus outbreak. According to the New York Times, the intelligence community has provided no evidence to confirm this. But one senior administration official told me that the cables provide one more piece of evidence to support the possibility that the pandemic is the result of a lab accident in Wuhan.
AD


“The idea that it was just a totally natural occurrence is circumstantial. The evidence it leaked from the lab is circumstantial. Right now, the ledger on the side of it leaking from the lab is packed with bullet points and there’s almost nothing on the other side,” the official said.
As my colleague David Ignatius noted, the Chinese government’s original story — that the virus emerged from a seafood market in Wuhan — is shaky. Research by Chinese experts published in the Lancet in January showed the first known patient, identified on Dec. 1, had no connection to the market, nor did more than one-third of the cases in the first large cluster. Also, the market didn’t sell bats.
The Opinions section is looking for stories of how the coronavirus has affected people of all walks of life. Write to us.
Shi and other WIV researchers have categorically denied this lab was the origin for the novel coronavirus. On Feb. 3, her team was the first to publicly report the virus known as 2019-nCoV was a bat-derived coronavirus.
AD


The Chinese government, meanwhile, has put a total lockdown on information related to the virus origins. Beijing has yet to provide U.S. experts with samples of the novel coronavirus collected from the earliest cases. The Shanghai lab that published the novel coronavirus genome on Jan. 11 was quickly shut down by authorities for “rectification.” Several of the doctors and journalists who reported on the spread early on have disappeared.
On Feb. 14, Chinese President Xi Jinping called for a new biosecurity law to be accelerated. On Wednesday, CNN reported the Chinese government has placed severe restrictions requiring approval before any research institution publishes anything on the origin of the novel coronavirus.
The origin story is not just about blame. It’s crucial to understanding how the novel coronavirus pandemic started because that informs how to prevent the next one. The Chinese government must be transparent and answer the questions about the Wuhan labs because they are vital to our scientific understanding of the virus, said Xiao.
AD


We don’t know whether the novel coronavirus originated in the Wuhan lab, but the cable pointed to the danger there and increases the impetus to find out, he said.
“I don’t think it’s a conspiracy theory. I think it’s a legitimate question that needs to be investigated and answered,” he said. “To understand exactly how this originated is critical knowledge for preventing this from happening in the future.”


----------



## Ax^ (Apr 17, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Sure I read somewhere on here mention that Trump has hinted recently about the virus originating from a lab.
> 
> Anyway, it may have originated from some leaked (intelligence) cables according to this:
> 
> ...



did we not ban Jazz for posting bat shit conspiracy ballocks even when we were not in a global pandemic


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

Marty1 

Look at that last paragraph.

Trash stories get perpetuated by the press preying on the credulity of their readers. And those stories get passed around like a virus of stupid.  Please don't be a vector for the stupid Marty1


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Was it you who posted that NY Times article about American cases coming from Europe not Asia? Did you read that? That article also talked about this conspiracy story about the virus being leaked, and dismissed it.
> ..


It was me that posted that. The analysis of the virus's dna was persuasive that it came from bats, horseshoe bats iirc and they argued a bit that this implied it hadn't come from a lab. But, and as elbows commented, that does not mean it couldn't have been being studied in a lab and escaped from there into the environment.


----------



## Ax^ (Apr 17, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Marty1
> 
> Look at that last paragraph.
> 
> Trash stories get perpetuated by the press preying on the credulity of their readers. And those stories get passed around like a virus of stupid.  Please don't be a vector for the stupid Marty1



hopefully he understands your advice SheilaNaGig


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> It was me that posted that. The analysis of the virus's dna was persuasive that it came from bats, horseshoe bats iirc and they argued a bit that this implied it hadn't come from a lab. But, and as elbows commented, that does not mean it couldn't have been being studied in a lab and escaped from there into the environment.




That's true. We can't be sure of anything. But this idea that it was being turned into a bioweapon or being made more virulent or whatever , so far as I can see there is zero evidence for that.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

two sheds said:


> There has been some positive news from all of this
> 
> 
> 
> ...




It's too late though.









						A boy from a remote Amazonian tribe has died, raising concerns about Covid-19's impact on indigenous people
					

The 15-year-old boy, a Yanomami from the village of Rehebe on the Uraricoera River, died on Thursday, according to Brazil's Ministry of Health.




					edition.cnn.com
				












						First coronavirus deaths reported in indigenous communities in the Amazon
					

“COVID-19 has fertile terrain to spread rapidly among the populations that live in Amazonia,” says president of prominent Brazilian rights group.




					www.nationalgeographic.co.uk


----------



## agricola (Apr 17, 2020)

Ax^ said:


> did we not ban Jazz for posting bat shit conspiracy ballocks even when we were not in a global pandemic



TBF Jazzz's bat shit conspiracy ballocks at least qualified as bat shit conspiracy ballocks.  All this "_we knew about the danger at the Wuhan lab in 2018_" thing they are pushing does is make Trump look even more to blame than he did before. For one of Jazzz's theories to be equivalent to that he'd have had to argue that 9/11 was certainly faked because steel reinforced concrete only ever burns after someone crashes airliners into massive buildings, or something.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> That's true. We can't be sure of anything. But this idea that it was being turned into a bioweapon or being made more virulent or whatever , so far as I can see there is zero evidence for that.


I agree, the researchers were I think looking for evidence the genome had been tweaked by humans but what they found persuaded them it did originate from the horseshoe bat.


----------



## Ax^ (Apr 17, 2020)

aye true at least Jazz would of supported his sources till the very end


not just go "i did not read it because it behind a *easily breached * Paywall"


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 17, 2020)

I was just about to say something similar but then couldn't bring myself to defend Jazzz.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 17, 2020)

He did have a good user name


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

There are several plausible lab theories, as well as a number of less plausible ones. There isnt enough actual evidence floating around for me to invest very much time on the subject at the moment, but I have already provided some background info as to why certain aspects are plausible, that still applies when we are talking about a virus that hasnt been deliberately altered by humans in a lab.


----------



## Ax^ (Apr 17, 2020)

As this is in a roundabout work related

it not a viable weapon as it does not have a high enough death rate / infection capability

maybe if it was a lab fuck up but that would only be due to drawing blood from a patient

someone was attempting to find a treatment for *seriously unlikely *


plus already 3 or more mutations around the world

this family of virus has cross over into humans with 2 cycles of infection in the last 20 years


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

Well without spending too much time repeating myself, reasons why I would consider myself to be foolish if I ruled out lab accident at this stage include:

The lab in Wuhan was famous for researching SARS-like viruses, including being the team who found bats in a cave in another province that had coronaviruses similar to SARS, and spent 5 years taking anal swabs from those bats.

The main SARS outbreak was in 2003. But later in 2003 and a couple of times in 2004, small clusters of cases popped up elsewhere that were traced back to lab workers accidentally getting infected and then spreading it to some other people. The Wuhan lab was not one of these, it was not even built at the time, but it demonstrates the ability for these sorts of viruses to pose biosecurity issues.

These things are not evidence of anything, they are background info that forces me to keep an open mind on the subject, regardless of what dodgy politicians and media may do with the theory.


----------



## Ax^ (Apr 17, 2020)

You know MERS or  the virus MERS-CoV 

was not from a china lab right?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

Coronavirus in Africa 

Africa could be next epicentre, WHO warns


> UN officials also say it is likely the pandemic will kill at least 300,000 people in Africa and push nearly 30 million into poverty.
> 
> The past week in Africa has seen a sharp rise in coronavirus cases.





> ..
> The UN Economic Commission for Africa - which warned 300,000 could die - called for a $100bn (£80bn) safety net for the continent, including halting external debt payments.
> ..
> North Africa is the worst affected region. Algeria, Egypt and Morocco have all had more than 2,000 cases and at least 100 deaths. Algeria has had the most deaths, with 348.





> Elsewhere, South Africa has also had more than 2,000 cases, with 48 deaths, while the continent's most populous nation, Nigeria, has had 442 cases and 13 confirmed deaths out of a population of some 200 million.


from 17/04/2020 Africa could be next coronavirus epicentre - WHO

And

Coronavirus stats across Africa: 18,400+ cases, 966 deaths, 4,344 recoveries


> There are now more than over 18,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus across the continent, with a number of African countries imposing a range of prevention and containment measures against the spread of the pandemic.
> 
> According to the latest data by the John Hopkins University and Africa Center for Disease Control on COVID-19 in Africa, the breakdown remains fluid as countries confirm cases as and when. The whole of Africa has rising cases with only two countries holding out as of April 17.


from 17/04/2020 Coronavirus stats across Africa: 18,400+ cases, 966 deaths, 4,344 recoveries | Africanews


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

Ax^ said:


> You know MERS or  the virus MERS-CoV
> 
> was not from a china lab right?



Natural explanations are plausible too. I didnt say they werent. 

Anyway this article is not too bad. My current position on this subject is the same as these quotes.









						Why Wuhan lab is at the centre of a virus controversy
					

Nestled in the hilly outskirts of Wuhan, the city at the heart of the coronavirus crisis, a Chinese high-security biosafety laboratory is now the subject of US claims it may be the cradle of the pandemic.




					www.rte.ie
				






> Filippa Lentzos, biosecurity researcher at King's College London, said while there is currently no proof for the lab accident theory, there is also "no real evidence" that the virus came from the wet market.
> 
> "For me, the pandemic origin is still an open question," said Mr Lentzos.
> 
> There are some indications "that could point to a potential lab accident from basic scientific research", she said. "But all of this needs considerable investigation for anyone to say anything with any certainty on the pandemic origins."





> David Heymann, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, also said there was no evidence about its origin but it is "closely related to a bat virus".
> 
> "There are many theories of how humans could've been infected, and I don't think any of them are able to be substantiated at present."


----------



## Ax^ (Apr 17, 2020)

Hey elbow you been a useful source of information for people by way of the thread

and this is your thread so i'm not casting aspersions

but if someone on here is going to link to fox news or other bat shit plan ballocks


and then refuse to at least explain or support their sources

they are an asshat


----------



## two sheds (Apr 17, 2020)

I think we can all agree on that sentiment


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

Sure, I'm mostly interested in the underlying possibilities, and trying to resist the temptation to find certainty where there is currently none to be found, rather than what arseholes do with their theories. When the theories come up I often take the opportunity to talk about them, regardless of the thread context at the time.

I am taking a break this weekend though


----------



## two sheds (Apr 17, 2020)

🎵Happy birthday to him 🎵for yesterday 🎵Happy birthday to him 🎵for yesterday


----------



## teqniq (Apr 17, 2020)

This may be concerning









						'No evidence' people who have survived coronavirus have immunity | ITV News
					

Faith in antibody blood tests to find those who have recovered from coronavirus might be misplaced, the World Health Organisation said. | ITV National News




					www.itv.com


----------



## elbows (Apr 17, 2020)

I'm not that concerned by it, lack of evidence means just that, nothing more.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 17, 2020)

teqniq said:


> This may be concerning
> 
> 
> 
> ...



What the WHO also said, you can watch their press briefing - I linked to it in this thread, is that countries expecting that a new antibody test will show that a large number of their populations have had the virus and are now immune are likely to be disappointed as evidence seems to show that far fewer members of their population will likely turn out to have recovered from an infection. Also so those governments hoping for a level of herd immunity are also likely to be dissapointed.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 18, 2020)

I am a little concerned about the amount of learning that UK government is doing from how other countries around the world are tackling covid-19. Valance claimed at least once during No 10 press briefings that they are regularly in touch with their international counterparts. 

But no one has yet asked him about the country featured on his chart of fatalities with the lowest level of deaths, which is South Korea. And he has not mentioned that he has learnt anything from South Korea which might be the only country now which has tackled the virus without so far resorting to a  lockdown of some kind. 

South Korea has been using testing contact tracing and isolation in a big way from the start. 

I suppose we may find out if that is in his thinking if we approach a relaxation of the lockdown measures. If a relaxation is met with an army of contact tracers, adequate testing capacity for public testing and new guidelines for the general public. I don't see any evidence of the army of contact tracers being recruited or trained, there are a lot of newly unemployed, furloughed people and there is the military, so an army of tracers is possible. But there is no evidence of preparation for such an initiative.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 18, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Marty1
> 
> Look at that last paragraph.
> 
> Trash stories get perpetuated by the press preying on the credulity of their readers. And those stories get passed around like a virus of stupid.  Please don't be a vector for the stupid Marty1



In one of the very recent WH pressers a journalist brought this question up with Trump as to whether the virus originated from a lab in Wuhan and Trump alluded that there was an investigation ongoing into this.



Spoiler: WH Presser



From 8mins 54 secs.






Looks like this lab theory is originating from The White House.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 18, 2020)

No, the story isn’t originating in the White House, it’s being repeated by the White House.

Or rather it’s being repeated by the Trump administration.

This rumour started on Fox News in February. 









						Inside the Viral Spread of a Coronavirus Origin Theory
					

A Wuhan biosafety laboratory, bat blood, a wet market, scientists, pangolins, politicians looking for someone to blame: the perfect ingredients for a story that won’t go away.




					www.vanityfair.com
				




Please take this discussion to the conspiracy thread, it’s already a topic on there.


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 18, 2020)

elbows said:


> Well without spending too much time repeating myself, reasons why I would consider myself to be foolish if I ruled out lab accident at this stage include:
> 
> The lab in Wuhan was famous for researching SARS-like viruses, including being the team who found bats in a cave in another province that had coronaviruses similar to SARS, and spent 5 years taking anal swabs from those bats.
> 
> ...




Yep, I'm no fan of tinfoil-hattery but the fact that the outbreak began in the same city as a lab that collected bat viruses from across China, tested them on animals, and was allegedly lax about safety measures seems like too big a coincidence to dismiss - and covering up a lab accident would hardly be out of character for a regime that put a million Muslims in brainwashing camps and claimed they were "vocational training centers." Since executing whistleblowers or sending them to gulags would also be typical behaviour from the regime, we may never know for certain. 

Unfortunately, the association with Trump may mean the Wuhan lab gets less attention than it deserves - the man's a paranoid, ranting racist who has trouble distinguishing Chinese citizens from the Chinese regime and whose allies promote more far-fetched theories about the virus being an engineered bioweapon, so he's going to be ignored by a lot of people even if he's on the right track about something for once.


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 18, 2020)

And just a bit more on Ecuador. Article here suggesting 8,000 probable coronavirus deaths in Guayas, the district including the second city Guayaquil, in 6 weeks. Guayas has a population of about 3 million, Guayaquil 2.3 million. The area accounts for 70% of all cases in Ecuador. I wonder (and don't know) why this should be as the capital is Quito which would be the major transport hub for visitors from abroad (although its population is smaller at 1.7 million).









						Ecuador's death rate soars as fears grow over scale of coronavirus crisis
					

Mortalities in one province leap from 3,000 to 11,000 in six weeks, with health and mortuary services overwhelmed




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## elbows (Apr 18, 2020)

Japan:



> In one recent case, an ambulance carrying a man with a fever and difficulty breathing was rejected by 80 hospitals and forced to search for hours for a hospital in downtown Tokyo that would treat him. Another feverish man finally reached a hospital after paramedics unsuccessfully contacted 40 clinics.





> Japan lacks enough hospital beds, medical workers or equipment. Forcing hospitalization of anyone with the virus, even those with mild symptoms, has left hospitals overcrowded and understaffed.
> 
> The "collapse of emergency medicine" has already happened, a precursor to the overall collapse of medicine, the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine and the Japanese Society for Emergency Medicine said in a joint statement. By turning away patients, hospitals are putting an excessive burden on the limited number of advanced and critical emergency centers, the groups said.
> 
> "We can no longer carry out normal emergency medicine," said Takeshi Shimazu, an Osaka University emergency doctor.











						New wave of infections threatens to collapse Japan hospitals - The Mainichi
					

TOKYO (AP) -- Hospitals in Japan are increasingly turning away sick people as the country struggles with surging coronavirus infections and its emerge




					mainichi.jp


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (Apr 18, 2020)

News from Krakow, liiks like there's been a bit of promising research coming from the university! (the most highly regarded in Poland).

Site is in Polish, but I've done a bit of Google translate so you don't have to.









						Przełom?! Krakowscy naukowcy opracowali substancję, która skutecznie hamuje zakażenie koronawirusem - KRKnews
					

Czy to przełom w walce z koronawirusem? Zespół naukowców z Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego w Krakowie ogłosił, że stworzył substancję, która silnie hamuje zakażenie koronawirusem SARS-CoV-2. Krakowscy badacze są zdania, że wyniki są obiecującym pierwszym krokiem na drodze do przygotowania leku. –...




					krknews.pl
				





*Has there been a breakthrough in the fight against coronavirus? A team of scientists from the Jagiellonian University in Krakow have announced that they have created a substance that strongly inhibits the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection.*

Krakow researchers believe the results are a promising first step on the way to creating a drug
"The substance we've developed is innovative on a global scale" - said on the Polish Radio 24 prof.

Professor Krzysztoff Pyrć is head of the Laboratory of Virology at the Malopolska Center of Biotechnology of the Jagiellonian University.

The substance created by scientists of the Jagiellonian University is a chemical compound called HTCC. It strongly not only inhibits SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection, but also its no less dangerous cousin MERS-CoV.

Currently, scientists from Krakow are at the stage of looking for a partner who will help in further research on the future drug. In the current situation, when companies are throwing millions more to fight the coronavirus, this should be a formality.

When can the medicine be ready?

"I have no idea when such a medicine might be available. It all depends on how this substance will behave under different conditions, whether any changes will be necessary. However, I hope that this time will be calculated in months, not in years, as it normally looks" - added prof. Pyć.


----------



## elbows (Apr 18, 2020)

Looks to me like they have actually been looking at HTCC for years, here is a 2016 paper on the subject from the same people:









						HTCC: Broad Range Inhibitor of Coronavirus Entry
					

To date, six human coronaviruses have been known, all of which are associated with respiratory infections in humans. With the exception of the highly pathogenic SARS and MERS coronaviruses, human coronaviruses (HCoV-NL63, HCoV-OC43, HCoV-229E, and HCoV-HKU1) ...




					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## teqniq (Apr 18, 2020)




----------



## weltweit (Apr 18, 2020)

Well, it is in the hands of their govenors now - if they relax measures or not, and time will tell if the right decisions are made.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 18, 2020)

Japan

Japan doctors warn of health system 'break down' as cases surge


> Doctors in Japan have warned that the country's medical system could collapse amid a wave of new coronavirus cases.
> 
> Emergency rooms have been unable to treat some patients with serious health conditions due to the extra burden caused by the virus, officials say.





> One ambulance carrying a patient with coronavirus symptoms was turned away by 80 hospitals before he could be seen.
> ..
> Doctors have complained of a lack of protective equipment, which suggests Japan has not prepared well for the virus. This is despite the fact it was the second country outside China to record an infection, way back in January.





> Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been criticised for not introducing restrictions to deal with the outbreak sooner for fear they could harm the economy.
> ..
> Last month it conducted just 16% of the number of PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests that South Korea did, according to data from Oxford University.





> And unlike South Korea - which has brought its outbreak largely under control through a programme of large-scale testing - the Japanese government said that carrying out widespread testing was a "waste of resources".


from 18/04/2020 Japan doctors warn health system may 'break down'

And

Japanese medical workers fear the worst as coronavirus cases spike


> In the past few weeks, Japan's coronavirus cases have spiked -- dashing hopes that the government's initial virus response had succeeded in controlling its spread. As of Friday, Japan had 9,787 confirmed cases, including 190 deaths, according to Johns Hopkins University. On March 1, the country had 243 cases.
> ..
> Earlier this week, a team of government experts warned that Japan could have more than 400,000 coronavirus-related deaths if measures such as social distancing are not taken.





> But most deaths, they warned, could result from a lack of ventilators.
> 
> The shortage of medical supplies became clear this week when Osaka mayor Ichiro Matsui urged people to donate unused raincoats for health workers to use as personal protective equipment, after they'd been forced to wear trash bags.


from 18/04/2020 Japanese medical workers fear the worst as coronavirus cases spike


----------



## zahir (Apr 18, 2020)

Migrant workers in the gulf states.



> Amnesty International has interviewed 20 migrant workers from Nepal who say they were rounded up – along with many others – by Qatari police and then deported after being tricked into thinking they were just being given coronavirus tests.





> Saudi Arabia is planning to deport 200,000 Ethiopian migrants, Reuters news agency reported earlier this week. So far, 2,870 of them have been expelled from the kingdom.











						Middle East coronavirus updates: Migrant workers bear the brunt of the Gulf's epidemic
					

Migrant workers are bearing the brunt of the coronavirus epidemic in the wealthy Gulf states. Often living in over-crowded accommodation, they are at particular risk of infection. Many are now also jobless. Some have been deported. Thousands more want to return home – but can't.  India rejects...




					al-bab.com


----------



## teqniq (Apr 18, 2020)

You couldn't make this up:


----------



## teqniq (Apr 18, 2020)

And there's more:



Lemmings


----------



## two sheds (Apr 18, 2020)

You have to let them do it though. As long as they don't go breathe on the rest of the people, if they want to express their liberty then fair play to them. Just don't look for a bed in intensive care when the time comes. Or when it comes to vote.


----------



## Boru (Apr 18, 2020)

I think immunity after surviving infection was a great hope of everyone.

"Senior WHO epidemiologists warned despite the hopes governments across the world have piled on antibody tests, there is no proof those who have been infected cannot be infected again."









						'No evidence' of immunity in recovered patients - WHO
					

There is currently no evidence to support the belief that people who have recovered from coronavirus then have immunity, the World Health Organization has said.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 18, 2020)

It's utterly moronic, but in the scheme of things, they're still relatively small groups and they are at least outside. That said, yelling is a very effective way of projecting droplets. I wouldn't be anywhere near them.

I'm not even sure those pics of the beaches are such a worry. Again, outside, not exactly packed, and beaches are generally windy so will disperse any infected aerosols.

tbh I'd be much more worried about the church services still going on in the US in terms of potentially dangerous virus-spreading events. We know from South Korea that groups of people gathered close together inside, and singing their hearts out, are potentially a very dangerous thing as in those particular conditions it's not just the larger droplets you need to worry about but also aerosols. Outside, not so much.


----------



## LDC (Apr 18, 2020)

teqniq said:


> And there's more:
> 
> 
> 
> Lemmings




I do like to think of myself as not easily surprised by the idiocy of some humans, but the 'social distancing = tyranny' thing going on in the US is really very special.


----------



## Dogsauce (Apr 18, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well, it is in the hands of their govenors now - if they relax measures or not, and time will tell if the right decisions are made.



It‘s just another blame-deflecting strategy really, probably quite a good one. Make it appear all the economic pain (which has resulted from the government not getting a grip) is down to democratic state governors keeping stuff closed down. No blame for the man that put them in this situation.


----------



## Dogsauce (Apr 18, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> . I wouldn't be anywhere near them.
> .



if I thought I had Covid and was well enough to go out I think I would. Lessons to be learnt.

(would actually be quite funny to have some kind of hidden audio speaker somewhere on the protest route playing loud coughing, just to watch the panic)


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 18, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I do like to think of myself as not easily surprised by the idiocy of some humans, but the 'social distancing = tyranny' thing going on in the US is really very special.


= COMMUNISM


----------



## weltweit (Apr 18, 2020)

Boru said:


> I think immunity after surviving infection was a great hope of everyone.
> 
> "Senior WHO epidemiologists warned despite the hopes governments across the world have piled on antibody tests, there is no proof those who have been infected cannot be infected again."
> 
> ...


But to be clear, what WHO said is that there is no evidence, not that the phenomena does not exist, and then they went on to comment on the herd immunity idea and said they expected governments hoping to find lots of their populations who had been infected and were now immune - were likely to be disappointed because they did not expect the number of people who had been infected to be as high as governments were hoping.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 18, 2020)

weltweit said:


> But to be clear, what WHO said is that there is no evidence, not that the phenomena does not exist, and then they went on to comment on the herd immunity idea and said they expected governments hoping to find lots of their populations who had been infected and were now immune - were likely to be disappointed because they did not expect the number of people who had been infected to be as high as governments were hoping.


But truth is still a great big 'fuck knows' about a hell of a lot of this. Only way to find out is to develop the tests and get them out there asap. 

One of my biggest disappointments in all of this has been the lack of international collaboration. This is the single biggest thing the human world needs to do right now. Resources should have been pooled and efforts coordinated ages ago.


----------



## JimW (Apr 18, 2020)

If communism could be achieved by failing to socially interact normally I'd be introducing my ninth five year plan already.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 18, 2020)

I know that Portugal aside from emergemcy admissions does targeted testing in its identify and trace initiative  , havent a clue what the others do.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 18, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> I know that Portugal aside from emergemcy admissions does targeted testing in its identify and trace initiative  , havent a clue what the others do.
> 
> View attachment 207504


This is good. Learning lessons. And putting much richer countries like France and the UK to shame. tbh I'm almost surprised the UK is as high as 20th. Useless twats.


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 18, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> But truth is still a great big 'fuck knows' about a hell of a lot of this. Only way to find out is to develop the tests and get them out there asap.
> 
> One of my biggest disappointments in all of this has been the lack of international collaboration. This is the single biggest thing the human world needs to do right now. Resources should have been pooled and efforts coordinated ages ago.



It’s a global world eh? 

Eh?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 18, 2020)

The39thStep interesting table, where did you get it?  Interesting Korea is so low yet doing so well in supressing the virus.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 18, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The39thStep interesting table, where did you get it?  Interesting Korea is so low yet doing so well in supressing the virus.


Korea doesn't need to test much now, cos they've got so few people falling ill. Their testing has mostly shifted to making sure every person entering the country gets one. At the start, they were testing like fuck.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 18, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The39thStep interesting table, where did you get it?  Interesting Korea is so low yet doing so well in supressing the virus.


Robert Preston posted it on Twitter , he says the table is by  Julian Ozanne   but doesnt say where


----------



## keybored (Apr 18, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> tbh I'm almost surprised the UK is as high as 20th.



That's 20th out of 20 countries, I believe.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 18, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> Robert Preston posted it on Twitter , he says the table is by  Julian Ozanne   but doesnt say where


The figures look about right. The UK one is right because the govt proudly boasts about it every day. The German one is a little out of date - it will be a bit higher now. But from the various sources I've been spending way too much time looking at, the table looks mostly sound.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 18, 2020)

keybored said:


> That's 20th out of 20 countries, I believe.


Relegation certainties.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 18, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Korea doesn't need to test much now, cos they've got so few people falling ill. Their testing has mostly shifted to making sure every person entering the country gets one. At the start, they were testing like fuck.


Interesting thought that their total testing as a % of their population is similar to the UK. Probably they focussed their testing in a more effective way than we did, well they certainly haven't had to test people coming into hospital in the way we have had to.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 18, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> The figures look about right. The UK one is right because the govt proudly boasts about it every day. The German one is a little out of date - it will be a bit higher now. But from the various sources I've been spending way too much time looking at, the table looks mostly sound.


The debate on his post is a cracker 'you are just using figures to make the govt look bad'


----------



## zahir (Apr 18, 2020)

Faroe Islands on 11% tested.


----------



## LiamO (Apr 18, 2020)

probly posted everywhere already, but made me smile...

View attachment 207510


----------



## weltweit (Apr 18, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> ..
> One of my biggest disappointments in all of this has been the lack of international collaboration. This is the single biggest thing the human world needs to do right now. Resources should have been pooled and efforts coordinated ages ago.


I have made a point of watching the WHO press briefings every so often, they seem a beacon of international cooperation despite the row with Trump, they can only work with countries that co-operate which might explain how they weren't in China at the beginning. China didn't want them there at the start. 

The pandemic has set country against country in some things like the international market of PPE and ventilators etc, notably the US bidding up to secure items for their domestic consumption including gazumping Canada on medical supplies. 

I think within the EU there has been some collaboration, UK invited to join in but either declining or saying they didn't get the memo. Even within the EU there has been disagreement, particularly Italy and Spain hoping for more financial support than was eventually offered. 

And I think the pharmaceutical industry is working across borders, no doubt if a vaccine is developed there will be a rush of nations to be the front of the queue for delivery.

Are those the sorts of collaborations you were thinking of?


----------



## keybored (Apr 18, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> This is good. Learning lessons. And putting much richer countries like France and the UK to shame. tbh I'm almost surprised the UK is as high as 20th. Useless twats.


According to worldometers, UK are in 59th place of the countries with available figures. But we're up to almost 0.68% of the population tested now. Yay.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 18, 2020)

One World concert going on apparently - does anyone have a decent link?

might be here


----------



## teqniq (Apr 18, 2020)

A little light relief:


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 18, 2020)

teqniq said:


> A little light relief:



Can we please keep this stuff off the serious threads, and post it on the memes one?









						Coronavirus meme/panic/fear mongering general thread
					






					www.urban75.net


----------



## HAL9000 (Apr 18, 2020)

> A Florida man encased himself in concrete outside the Governor’s Mansion in the state capital apparently to protest prison conditions related to the coronavirus.
> 
> A Tallahassee police spokesman says 28-year-old Jordan Mazurek put PVC pipes horizontally into two 55-gallon plastic drums filled with concrete, with some sort of mechanism that locked his arms in place.












						Florida man encases self in concrete at governor's mansion
					

A Florida man encased himself in concrete outside the Governor’s Mansion in the state capital apparently to protest prison conditions related to the coronavirus.




					www.abcactionnews.com


----------



## teqniq (Apr 18, 2020)

But not here in the UK, according to Sunak, oh no.   









						Universal basic income is the answer to the inequalities exposed by COVID-19
					

As governments around the world look to kickstart their economies after the COVID-19 outbreak, they can't afford to ignore universal basic income if they want to fend off social unrest.




					www.weforum.org


----------



## weltweit (Apr 18, 2020)

Don’t bet on vaccine to protect us from Covid-19, says world health expert


> Humanity will have to live with the threat of coronavirus “for the foreseeable future” and adapt accordingly because there is no guarantee that a vaccine can be successfully developed, one of the world’s leading experts on the disease has warned.
> 
> The stark message was delivered by David Nabarro, professor of global health at Imperial College, London, and an envoy for the World Health Organisation on Covid-19, as the number of UK hospital deaths from the virus passed 15,000.





> ..
> In an interview with The Observer Nabarro said the public should not assume that a vaccine would definitely be developed soon – and would have to adapt to the ongoing threat.
> 
> “You don’t necessarily develop a vaccine that is safe and effective against every virus. Some viruses are very, very difficult when it comes to vaccine development - so for the foreseeable future, we are going to have to find ways to go about our lives with this virus as a constant threat.





> ..
> Nabarro’s message is the second grim warning to come from senior ranks of the WHO in the last three days. On Friday, Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, warned that there was no evidence that antibody tests now being developed would show if a person has immunity or is no longer at risk of becoming reinfected by the Covid-19 virus.


from 18/04/2020 Don’t bet on vaccine to protect us from Covid-19, says world health expert


----------



## weltweit (Apr 18, 2020)

Why is Germany’s Covid-19 death rate so low compared to other countries?


> While the UK was only managing to test around 7,000 people a week for coronavirus at the beginning of April, Germany was averaging around 500,000 tests carried out over the same time period.


from 18/04/2020 Why is Germany's Covid-19 death rate so low compared to other countries?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 18, 2020)

Viruses, I thought some articles on what they are and where they come from. 



> Viruses are the smallest of all the microbes. They are said to be so small that 500 million rhinoviruses (which cause the common cold) could fit on to the head of a pin. They are unique because they are only alive and able to multiply inside the cells of other living things. The cell they multiply in is called the host cell.
> .. etc


Measles, Rabies, Polio, Hepatitis C are viruses. 








						Viruses | What is microbiology?
					

Smallest of all the microbes, but are they alive?




					microbiologysociety.org
				








__





						Origin of Viruses
					

The evolutionary history of viruses remains unclear. Some researchers hypothesize that viruses evolved from mobile genetic elements that gained the ability to move between cells. Other researchers postulate that viruses evolved from more complex organisms that lost the ability to replicate...



					www.nature.com
				







> For something so small, viruses have a huge impact on the world. They are easily the most abundant organisms on Earth (though the use of the word “organisms” is controversial), found in every environment in vast, mind-numbingly large numbers. They are very ancient, probably played a pivotal role in the origin of life, and continue to be an important driver of evolution.





> The vast majority of viruses are little more than strands of genetic material packaged up in a protein container called a capsid. Around a quarter are also surrounding by an envelope, which is usually made of a lipid membrane stolen from its host plus some virus-encoded proteins. A single virus is called a virion; most are around 100 nanometres across. Their sole aim in (quasi-)life is to invade the cells of their host, release their genetic material and hijack the cell’s biochemistry to make more copies of themselves. The new virions then burst out of the cell, killing it, and begin the cycle anew. Viruses are genetic parasites.





> They are hugely varied. Some are so simple and formulaic that they can be described using a chemical formula – a polio virion, for example, consists of a short piece of RNA wrapped in a single-protein capsid and has the chemical formula C332,652 H492,388 N98,245 O131,196 P7501 S2340. Others are as large and complex as a bacterium, with hundreds of genes and a complex capsid and envelope. These giant viruses were discovered quite recently and shook up the world of virology, challenging the idea that viruses are merely non-living bags of chemicals. Some even have pathogenic viruses themselves.



from Viruses


----------



## teqniq (Apr 19, 2020)

Corruption:









						Trump plan for coronavirus supplies yields payoff for favored companies
					

In the rush for coronavirus supplies, major medical companies get a special deal from the Trump administration




					www.latimes.com


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 19, 2020)

two sheds said:


> You have to let them do it though. As long as they don't go breathe on the rest of the people, if they want to express their liberty then fair play to them. Just don't look for a bed in intensive care when the time comes. Or when it comes to vote.


----------



## quimcunx (Apr 19, 2020)

Covid-19 in NZ - the numbers
					

How is Covid-19 spreading within the country? Newsroom is collating information as it's available to paint a picture of what's happening.




					www.newsroom.co.nz
				




Some nice bar charts from New Zealand.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 19, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Don’t bet on vaccine to protect us from Covid-19, says world health expert
> 
> from 18/04/2020 Don’t bet on vaccine to protect us from Covid-19, says world health expert


Many working on vaccines don't share his pessimism (the Oxford team sound particularly optimistic, and have put their reputations on the line over it), but even if he's right, live with the virus? The hell with that. We'll just have to contact trace the thing into oblivion one country at a time if needs be, as we annihilated its unlamented predecessor in the SARS clan.

The fact he hasn't even suggested this possibility doen't make me inclined to buy his claims about the likelihood of a vaccine. Are they based on anything but generalized nihilism?


----------



## zahir (Apr 19, 2020)

Azrael said:


> but even if he's right, live with the virus? The hell with that. We'll just have to contact trace the thing into oblivion one country at a time if needs be, as we annihilated its unlamented predecessor in the SARS clan.


I’m starting to think that this is correct and there will have to be an effort to eliminate the virus, vaccine or not, however long it takes. I can see a fault line developing here between those who recognise this and those who don’t see it as a possibility.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 19, 2020)

zahir said:


> I’m starting to think that this is correct and there will have to be an effort to eliminate the virus, vaccine or not, however long it takes. I can see a fault line developing here between those who recognise this and those who don’t see it as a possibility.


Can't see any other way. Even the best antivirals and immunosuppressants will leave an unbearable toll. New Zealand may've been the only country to declare it policy, but it's been the tacit policy of China from the start and looks like they're nearly there, South Korea's achingly close, as is Taiwan, and Singapore will hopefully control the outbreak among migrant workers.

Smallpox. SARS. Rinderpest. SARS-CoV-2. Let's throw all we have into sending the wannabe where we sent its predecessor.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> Covid-19 in NZ - the numbers
> 
> 
> How is Covid-19 spreading within the country? Newsroom is collating information as it's available to paint a picture of what's happening.
> ...


Yes, I particularly like this one: 


Because it shows just how easily the virus can be spread in settings like a wedding, a rest home etc .. not to be messed with this virus.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 19, 2020)

zahir said:


> I’m starting to think that this is correct and there will have to be an effort to eliminate the virus, vaccine or not, however long it takes. I can see a fault line developing here between those who recognise this and those who don’t see it as a possibility.



I'm very worried about this happening.


----------



## zahir (Apr 19, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Can't see any other way. Even the best antivirals and immunosuppressants will leave an unbearable toll. New Zealand may've been the only country to declare it policy, but it's been the tacit policy of China from the start and looks like they're nearly there, South Korea's achingly close, as is Taiwan, and Singapore will hopefully control the outbreak among migrant workers.



The Faroes must be almost there.


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 19, 2020)

zahir said:


> The Faroes must be almost there.



Honourable but barely significant. Less than 50,000 population.


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 19, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> One of my biggest disappointments in all of this has been the lack of international collaboration. This is the single biggest thing the human world needs to do right now. Resources should have been pooled and efforts coordinated ages ago.





planetgeli said:


> It’s a global world eh?
> 
> Eh?



Yeah, posted when pissed but I think my point here is that this shows up Globalism and it's accelerator neoliberalism for the BS they are in all this. It's a small world now when you want to order cheaply manufactured (for profit) goods from the other side of the world, not so much when you are in dire need of international cooperation for the benefit of the world's health.



weltweit said:


> I have made a point of watching the WHO press briefings every so often, they seem a beacon of international cooperation despite the row with Trump, they can only work with countries that co-operate which might explain how they weren't in China at the beginning. China didn't want them there at the start.
> 
> The pandemic has set country against country in some things like the international market of PPE and ventilators etc, notably the US bidding up to secure items for their domestic consumption including gazumping Canada on medical supplies.
> 
> ...



With WHO, the clue is in the 'W'.

The US, well Trump, is showing itself up in all sorts of ways, not least the bungs being given to favoured companies who can produce shit that's needed for health, not profit.

The EU showed itself up when it came to helping out Italy, for which an apology saved zero lives.

And I don't see much evidence of the pharma industry being particularly internationalist in this. You can bet your bottom dollar, or even their bottom dollar, that when and if a vaccine comes there will be profiteering and massive queues with the least able to pay at the back.

Pardon my cynicism.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I'm very worried about this happening.




Even if the rest of the world is on board with the idea of eliminating the virus entirely by all means necessary, the Muricans will resist because it’s communism and they have the right to die of the virus. So if Trump wins the next election (he will) any and all global efforts will be hampered by America refusing to comply. Plus there’s bound to be other despots who insist that vodka is the cure so let’s all play football, or god is the cure so let’s all go to church.

And how the fuck do we isolate test and treat everyone in Dharavi?


----------



## Supine (Apr 19, 2020)

Global eradication isn't an option so the focus needs to be on controlled spread and a big fingers crossed on built up immunity over time.


----------



## zahir (Apr 19, 2020)

Why isn’t it an option?


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 19, 2020)

Supine said:


> Global eradication isn't an option so the focus needs to be on controlled spread and a big fingers crossed on built up immunity over time.



You sound like Boris at the start of March.


----------



## Supine (Apr 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> You sound like Boris at the start of March.



I won't take that as a complement


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 19, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Even if the rest of the world is on board with the idea of eliminating the virus entirely by all means necessary, the Muricans will resist because it’s communism and they have the right to die of the virus. So if Trump wins the next election (he will) any and all global efforts will be hampered by America refusing to comply. Plus there’s bound to be other despots who insist that vodka is the cure so let’s all play football, or god is the cure so let’s all go to church.
> 
> And how the fuck do we isolate test and treat everyone in Dharavi?



I think there's going to end up being two worlds: one where the virus been eradicated or suppressed to incredibly low levels, and that where it hasn't, and I don't think those two worlds will mix. I hope I'm just catastrophising.


----------



## zahir (Apr 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I think there's going to end up being two worlds: one where the virus been eradicated or suppressed to incredibly low levels, and that where it hasn't, and I don't think those two worlds will mix.



Or you have to spend a couple of weeks in quarantine if you want to travel from one to the other?


----------



## elbows (Apr 19, 2020)

I'm still judging things one week at a time and I expect May will arrive before I have anything much to say about the global future.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 19, 2020)

zahir said:


> Or you have to spend a couple of weeks in quarantine if you want to travel from one to the other?



Yeah, I agree. But if too many people entering your quarantine arrive with the virus, you then have to treat them. I don't see this being an attractive prospect for many nations. For sure, if they're your returning citizens, you'll suck it up, but if they're not? How many countries currently have proper centralized quarantine? Hong Kong, China, South Korea, New Zealand? I'm not sure which others. The only country I know of that's allowing non-citizens in to do this quarantine is SK. Are there others?


----------



## zahir (Apr 19, 2020)

The Faroes - anyone coming in has to stay in quarantine for two weeks.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 19, 2020)

zahir said:


> The Faroes - anyone coming in has to stay in quarantine for two weeks.



And can you come in if you're not a citizen?


----------



## zahir (Apr 19, 2020)

I think so, but then there can’t be many visitors at the best of times.



.
Edit - from the government site:

On 8 April, the Government announced steps towards a gradual and careful reopening of normal activities in the Faroe Islands. With regard to travel to and from the Faroe Islands, the advice remains the same.  All Faroese citizens and residents with a permanent address in the Faroe Islands who are currently overseas on a short-term basis are advised to return to the Faroe Islands as soon as possible. All other non-essential travel should continue to be avoided.  In addition, the authorities strongly advise anyone arriving in the Faroe Islands from overseas, regardless of nationality, to go directly into home quarantine for 14 days.


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 19, 2020)

GOP lawmakers introduce bill to allow Americans to sue China over coronavirus
					

Two Republican lawmakers in the House and Senate, respectively, have introduced legislation that would allow Americans to sue the Chinese government for damages caused by the coronavirus pandemic -- which U.S. officials have blamed on the Chinese.




					www.foxnews.com
				






> Two Republican lawmakers in the House and Senate, respectively, have introduced legislation that would allow Americans to sue the Chinese government for damages caused by the coronavirus pandemic -- which U.S. officials have blamed on the Chinese.
> 
> The bill, introduced by Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, in the House and Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., in the Senate, would allow Americans to sue the communist country in federal court by amending the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act.
> 
> “By silencing doctors and journalists who tried to warn the world about the coronavirus, the Chinese Communist Party allowed the virus to spread quickly around the globe. Their decision to cover up the virus led to thousands of needless deaths and untold economic harm. It’s only appropriate that we hold the Chinese government accountable for the damage it has caused,” Cotton said in a statement.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> GOP lawmakers introduce bill to allow Americans to sue China over coronavirus
> 
> 
> Two Republican lawmakers in the House and Senate, respectively, have introduced legislation that would allow Americans to sue the Chinese government for damages caused by the coronavirus pandemic -- which U.S. officials have blamed on the Chinese.
> ...


Yes, for me it was always a question of who would do this first, individuals or a state .. I am not surprised the calls for compensation have occurred first in the USA.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

Wondering which sectors will emerge least or most damaged from this crisis I do expect travel to lag other areas in getting to a significant recovery if indeed travel does recover significantly. At the moment so few countries are not hotspots whose travelers could be accepted as arrivals in other countries.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 19, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> GOP lawmakers introduce bill to allow Americans to sue China over coronavirus
> 
> 
> Two Republican lawmakers in the House and Senate, respectively, have introduced legislation that would allow Americans to sue the Chinese government for damages caused by the coronavirus pandemic -- which U.S. officials have blamed on the Chinese.
> ...




Does this mean that Africa can sue America for HIV?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Does this mean that Africa can sue America for HIV?


Nothing to stop them trying.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

EU, Georgia Orthodox Christians are continuing ceremonies including giving blessings using a shared spoon. 

Coronavirus is so small 300 million can fit on the head of a pin, how many then can fit on a shared spoon?

I think their parishioners are going to have cause to regret this!


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 19, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Wondering which sectors will emerge least or most damaged from this crisis I do expect travel to lag other areas in getting to a significant recovery if indeed travel does recover significantly. At the moment so few countries are not hotspots whose travelers could be accepted as arrivals in other countries.



Online businesses will no doubt boom as they no doubt are now as delivery drivers have been classified as key workers so - no interruption of service.

The company I contract deliver for are making an absolute fortune right now.


----------



## quimcunx (Apr 19, 2020)

Marty should we be having a go at amazon on twitter regarding warehouse workers' and drivers' conditions?  And if so what should we be saying?


----------



## two sheds (Apr 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I think there's going to end up being two worlds: one where the virus been eradicated or suppressed to incredibly low levels, and that where it hasn't, and I don't think those two worlds will mix. I hope I'm just catastrophising.





zahir said:


> Or you have to spend a couple of weeks in quarantine if you want to travel from one to the other?



Sort of thing you'd read in a science fiction novel.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 19, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> Marty should we be having a go at amazon on twitter regarding warehouse workers' and drivers' conditions?  And if so what should we be saying?



Yes, though I can really only specifically speak for drivers.

If you want to attempt to make an impact regarding drivers then you need to criticise them for pushing massive routes onto drivers - over 200 parcels per route and keeping routes at 9hrs - they did for only one day drop them to 8hrs (for 9hrs pay).  At the very least Amazon should be reducing the time of their routes to reduce exposure to drivers from this virus as their current ‘9hr’ routes are more like 10hrs.

To do these routes within 9hrs requires an inhuman pace of work that can create mistakes that could result in drivers exposing themselves and customers to potential contamination.


----------



## quimcunx (Apr 19, 2020)

You said something before about fines or discipline for distancing mistakes that are impossible to avoid. Can you explain/ repeat that?


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 19, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Sort of thing you'd read in a science fiction novel.




Yeah... I read Yu_Gi_Oh ’s post and had to go out into the garden and look at the tree to counteract the way I think made me feel (sending love to those who can’t go and look at a tree anytime they want to).

I don’t know enough sci-fi literature to do this, but I’d be interested to see a thread dedicated to books /plots etc that are being replicated by this situation.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 19, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> You said something before about fines or discipline for distancing mistakes that are impossible to avoid. Can you explain/ repeat that?



Yes - all liability is put upon drivers - constant threat of immediate sacking (Amazon call this ‘off boarding’) if driver is found to have broken the 2 metre distancing between them and customer (they claim to randomly call customers to check this).

Whilst this 2 metre advice is obvious necessary safeguarding for both driver and customer - Amazon negate the thought that their routes are far too heavy (exploitative) which require drivers to work at a break neck speed where mistakes can easily be made at working at such a pace.  Many drivers work 9-10hrs flat out, no break (how many people work like this?).

Amazon generate drivers routes and are the core route of these problems.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 19, 2020)

Haiti is really struggling.



			https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article241754611.html
		










						We are not prepared at all': Haiti, already impoverished, confronts a pandemic
					

Haiti has barely 60 ventilators for 11 million people, and a limited number of doctors who can operate them.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				







Jamaica stats and protocols on a wiki page here









						COVID-19 pandemic in Jamaica - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				




Because this hit in the winter, a fair few British Jamaican were over there when the lockdown happened. According to family members I've spoken with who are here, things are “okay for now” over there but they’re bracing themselves.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 19, 2020)

This is the worldwide c-19 discussion thread, can we keep posts about UK Amazon drivers off it, please?


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 19, 2020)

Puerto Rico, abandoned by Trump after the hurricanes and earthquakes, is going to get battered to fuck by the virus.









						COVID-19 pandemic in Puerto Rico - Wikipedia
					






					en.m.wikipedia.org
				












						Puerto Rico under scrutiny as youngest COVID-19 patient dies
					

Puerto Ricans are becoming increasingly disgruntled with how the government is handling the COVID-19 crisis as details emerge, including the death a 29-year-old man who became the U.S. territory’s youngest victim after his father said he wasn’t tested the first two times he sought help at an...




					www.clickondetroit.com
				





For every bit of Faroese-ish good news, there’s this horror show going on elsewhere.


----------



## MrCurry (Apr 19, 2020)

Has this one been posted yet?  Researchers modelled the spread of droplets from a cough in a supermarket-type environment with high shelving creating corridors and a ventilation system to move the air around. Note how many mins it takes for the cloud to disperse (6 mins) and the colour variation showing the height above ground level of the droplets. They rise up and over the shelving displays and drop down into the adjacent aisles...



And this was a simple cough, not even a sneeze!


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Has this one been posted yet?  Researchers modelled the spread of droplets from a cough in a supermarket-type environment with high shelving creating corridors and a ventilation system to move the air around. Note how many mins it takes for the cloud to disperse (6 mins) and the colour variation showing the height above ground level of the droplets. They rise up and over the shelving displays and drop down into the adjacent aisles...
> 
> And this was a simple cough, not even a sneeze!


I can't see the linked media, but yes droplet spread is a concern. The last time I was in the supermarket probably 95% of the people in there, me included, were not wearing masks.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

Two interesting editorials from the Lancet:

Sustaining containment of COVID-19 in China
from 18/04/2020 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30864-3/fulltext

and 

COVID-19 in the USA: a question of time
from 18/04/2020 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30863-1/fulltext


----------



## teqniq (Apr 19, 2020)

Watch this not happen in the UK.


----------



## miss direct (Apr 19, 2020)

Passed 2,000 confirmed deaths in Turkey now. Coming to the end of the second weekend curfew. This time, we were prepared and had lots of nice food (and beer). The best thing about the weekend curfew is that there is almost no traffic (police cars, army trucks, bread van and rubbish collection aside) and it's so peaceful. I can hear all the different birds. I even bought bird seed and saw loads of birds in the garden today. 

Also, I've met neighbours I've never met before - the old lady upstairs has taken to coming down for a cigarette in the early evening. Over 65s aren't allowed out at all - it's been a month and she lives alone.


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 19, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Passed 2,000 confirmed deaths in Turkey now. Coming to the end of the second weekend curfew. This time, we were prepared and had lots of nice food (and beer). The best thing about the weekend curfew is that there is almost no traffic (police cars, army trucks, bread van and rubbish collection aside) and it's so peaceful. I can hear all the different birds. I even bought bird seed and saw loads of birds in the garden today.
> 
> Also, I've met neighbours I've never met before - the old lady upstairs has taken to coming down for a cigarette in the early evening. Over 65s aren't allowed out at all - it's been a month and she lives alone.




Stay safe.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Passed 2,000 confirmed deaths in Turkey now. Coming to the end of the second weekend curfew. This time, we were prepared and had lots of nice food (and beer). The best thing about the weekend curfew is that there is almost no traffic (police cars, army trucks, bread van and rubbish collection aside) and it's so peaceful. I can hear all the different birds. I even bought bird seed and saw loads of birds in the garden today.
> 
> Also, I've met neighbours I've never met before - the old lady upstairs has taken to coming down for a cigarette in the early evening. Over 65s aren't allowed out at all - it's been a month and she lives alone.


Makes me wonder, isn't the shipment of PPE & Gowns the UK are expecting supposedly coming from Turkey?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read
from Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads | Free to read

Great charts of the world situation. Well worth a read.


----------



## LDC (Apr 19, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Makes me wonder, isn't the shipment of PPE & Gowns the UK are expecting supposedly coming from Turkey?



It is, and I did wonder whether it's really a delay, or a shipment that's gone 'missing'...


----------



## miss direct (Apr 19, 2020)

I haven’t heard about shortages here. Lots of factories producing them here. Huge textile industry.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

CNN page explaining the global demand for ventilators from many countries that have only a few ICU beds for populations in the millions.

This article mentions the developing countries which are missing from so much UK / EU / US reportage.

from 18/04/2020 The world is scrambling to buy ventilators in the Covid-19 pandemic. One country has only four of them -- for 12 million people


----------



## LDC (Apr 19, 2020)

I'm sure we've got places here in the UK that could churn PPE gowns etc. out by the thousand. They just need to take control of the factories and make the stuff. And that's even ignoring we've had months of notice now.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I'm sure we've got places here in the UK that could churn PPE gowns etc. out by the thousand. They just need to take control of the factories and make the stuff. And that's even ignoring we've had months of notice now.


My understanding is that many UK companies who can make PPE have submitted their details to government and haven't heard back. You wouldn't even need to take control, just issue purchase orders.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 19, 2020)

weltweit said:


> CNN page explaining the global demand for ventilators from many countries that have only a few ICU beds for populations in the millions.
> 
> This article mentions the developing countries which are missing from so much UK / EU / US reportage.
> 
> from 18/04/2020 The world is scrambling to buy ventilators in the Covid-19 pandemic. One country has only four of them -- for 12 million people


Ventilatiors of course essential tool, but given the survival rate of patients who end up tubed, also needs to be lots of focus on stopping the process that leads to rapid deterioration, whether it's a cytokine storm or something else.

This comment from Alison Pittard, Dean of Britain's Faculty of Intensive Care Medicine, is extremely worrying: "Intensive care doesn't usually offer treatment [for Covid-19], it offers support so that the body can then recover from whatever the underlying illness is." By "usually," she's probably referring to the English hospitals that've broken ranks from the government's obscene attempt to ban doctors from treating Covid patients with anything by oxygen and paracetamol, which they had no power to do, but has wrought havoc with English treatment protocols. It's possibly the greatest under-reported scandal of the U.K.'s botched response, and a stark reminder that we need to have a holistic response or something terrible can slip by.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

Antibody Test, Seen as Key to Reopening Country, Does Not Yet Deliver


> “People don’t understand how dangerous this test is,” said Michael T. Osterholm, an infectious disease expert at the University of Minnesota. “We sacrificed quality for speed, and in the end, when it’s people’s lives that are hanging in the balance, safety has to take precedence over speed.”
> 
> Even as government agencies, companies and academic researchers scramble to validate existing tests and create better ones, there are doubts they can deliver as promised. Most tests now available mistakenly flag at least some people as having antibodies when they do not, which could foster a dangerously false belief that those people have immunity.


from 19/04/2020 Antibody Test, Seen as Key to Reopening Country, Does Not Yet Deliver


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

Contact tracing helped end the Ebola outbreak. Public health experts say it can stop COVID-19, too.


> In the Wuhan, China region where the outbreak started, 9,000 contact tracers were rapidly deployed to curb the spread in the city of 11 million.
> 
> The World Health Organization breaks down contact tracing into three basic steps: identification, listing and follow-up.





> Once a patient tests positive for the virus, contacts are identified by asking who the patient came in contact with, such as family members, colleagues, friends or health care providers. Then tracers attempt to identify and reach out to all those who came into contact with the COVID-19 positive patient. Regular follow-ups should be conducted with all contacts to monitor for symptoms.


from 18/04/2020 Coronavirus: How contact tracing may stop COVID-19 cases


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 19, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Contact tracing helped end the Ebola outbreak. Public health experts say it can stop COVID-19, too.
> 
> from 18/04/2020 Coronavirus: How contact tracing may stop COVID-19 cases


This shouldn't even be a debate. We know contact tracing works. We knew that two months ago. Among everything else, I struggle to understand why the UK abandoned this idea in March and how it still hasn't got it back going again. As someone mentioned somewhere else, the question here has to be at what stage does this become criminal negligence. At what stage is it simply manslaughter?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> This shouldn't even be a debate. We know contact tracing works. We knew that two months ago. Among everything else, I struggle to understand why the UK abandoned this idea in March and how it still hasn't got it back going again. As someone mentioned somewhere else, the question here has to be at what stage does this become criminal negligence. At what stage is it simply manslaughter?


I put that item up mainly because it was the first time I had seen a number of people involved in contact tracing, 9,000 in Wuhan, for the size of infection they had, I wonder if it might indicate how many UK would need to do the job properly? 

I agree doing it shouldn't be up for debate, but we aren't doing it at the moment and no one politicians or medical / science people seem to be mentioning that it is in our future. That might be cause for concern.


----------



## xes (Apr 19, 2020)

weltweit said:


> In the Wuhan, China region where the outbreak started, 9,000 contact tracers were rapidly deployed to curb the spread in the city of 11 million.


In my head, I pictured that as 9000 Ed209s from Robocop.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 19, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I put that item up mainly because it was the first time I had seen a number of people involved in contact tracing, 9,000 in Wuhan, for the size of infection they had, I wonder if it might indicate how many UK would need to do the job properly?
> 
> I agree doing it shouldn't be up for debate, but we aren't doing it at the moment and no one politicians or medical / science people seem to be mentioning that it is in our future. That might be cause for concern.


Yeah, lots is the answer, which is why they need to be organising it now. Is why they needed to have been organising it weeks and weeks ago. It's not undoable at all. But it needs someone to bloody do it.

Part of the answer of course is that the testing capability still isn't there. And it still shows no sign of materialising either.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 19, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> You said something before about fines or discipline for distancing mistakes that are impossible to avoid. Can you explain/ repeat that?



Had a work text earlier informing that Amazon have now installed cctv at the depot that can detect whether someone has broken the 2 metre distancing rule when loading van with parcels in the morning - 2 strikes and you’re gone.

Not sure if you can get cctv that can do that or whether it’s some kind of threat.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yeah, lots is the answer, which is why they need to be organising it now. Is why they needed to have been organising it weeks and weeks ago. It's not undoable at all. But it needs someone to bloody do it.


No shortage of underutilised people in Britain at the moment. 



littlebabyjesus said:


> Part of the answer of course is that the testing capability still isn't there. And it still shows no sign of materialising either.


Hancock doesn't have many days now to get to 100,000 ..  it is starting to look like a doubtful target ..


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 19, 2020)

weltweit said:


> No shortage of underutilised people in Britain at the moment.
> 
> 
> Hancock doesn't have many days now to get to 100,000 ..  it is starting to look like a doubtful target ..


Piss up and brewery spring to mind.



> Gove acknowledged on Sunday that the target referred to tests carried out. In the past fortnight the government has placed a growing emphasis on “testing capacity”. It said that although fewer than 22,000 tests were performed on Saturday, labs now had the capacity to carry out 38,000 tests daily, and this had not been fully taken up by hospitals.



Impossible for UK to meet Covid-19 testing targets, scientists say

They are a toxic mix of evil and incompetence.


----------



## DexterTCN (Apr 19, 2020)




----------



## weltweit (Apr 19, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> ..
> They are a toxic mix of evil and incompetence.


They could harness automation: Robotic platform boost for Covid-19 tests | The Engineer


----------



## Azrael (Apr 19, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> [...] They are a toxic mix of evil and incompetence.


"We've had vicious kings, and we've had idiot kings, but I don't know if we've ever been cursed with a vicious idiot for a king!"


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 20, 2020)

Just listening to the live WH coronavirus presser on now and approx 41k Americans have sadly died with projections to be around 60k by the time the virus passes - so, if that end figure pans out it will be well under the 100k original projection that was made.  The main concern is the possibility of certain states opening up too quickly and a relapse in fatalities occur.


----------



## Ax^ (Apr 20, 2020)

Something else trump can claim a positive to

less deaths than the mismanagement of this crisis cost when initial estimated


well the second or third wave should clear that up


----------



## Humberto (Apr 20, 2020)

That would surely be way past the peak. Don't see that Marty1.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 20, 2020)

Humberto said:


> That would surely be way past the peak. Don't see that Marty1.



Yeah, they’re just past the peak now but seem to be well equipped with a glut of ventilators and hospital beds - they’re looking to send ventilators to other countries in need now.

Also - they’ve tested 4 million people so far and are testing around 1 million people a week which is impressive.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 20, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Yeah, they’re just past the peak now but seem to be well equipped with a glut of ventilators and hospital beds - they’re looking to send ventilators to other countries in need now.
> 
> Also - they’ve tested 4 million people so far and are testing around 1 million people a week which is impressive.




Where is this information coming from?

Links please.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 20, 2020)

I think you’re taking your information directly from Trump Marty1 .

And so far as I can tell, what Trump is saying is at odds with what everyone else is saying.










						Trump isn’t making America’s ventilator shortage any easier
					

Making ventilators is hard. Getting politicians to agree on paying for them is harder.




					www.vox.com
				












						Severe ventilator shortage sparks desperate scramble
					

U.S. hot spots in the coronavirus pandemic are facing a shortage of ventilators, and it’s not clear how or even if the need can be met. Manufacturers are scrambling to ramp up their prod…




					thehill.com


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 20, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I think you’re taking your information directly from Trump Marty1 .
> 
> And so far as I can tell, what Trump is saying is at odds with what everyone else is saying.
> 
> ...



Yeah, just watched the live presser.

Im not discounting your linked articles but not one of the journalists present questioned ventilator shortages at all - including CNN who you can guarantee would have jumped all over such.

Clearly there is a disparity between your links and the official WH info - perhaps due to your links not being particularly current in this dynamic pandemic climate, reflected in there publication dates.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 20, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Yeah, just watched the live presser.
> 
> Im not discounting your linked articles but not one of the journalists present questioned ventilator shortages at all - including CNN who you can guarantee would have jumped all over such.
> 
> Clearly there is a disparity between your links and the official WH info - perhaps due to your links not being particularly current in this dynamic pandemic climate, reflected in there publication dates.





I looked for more recent reports but nothing came up.

I did see this though:









						GM delivered its first medical ventilators: Where they went
					

Hospitals in Illinois to receive the first ventilators GM and Ventec have made at GM's plant in Kokomo, Indiana.




					eu.usatoday.com
				




...which says that GM have managed to deliver 44 ventilators to Chicago, with another 30,000 to be made by the end of August.

“GM and Ventec have contracted with the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services to provide 30,000 ventilators by the end of August. GM secured a $490 million government contract for the machines.

President Donald Trump initially chastised GM on Twitter for moving too slowly to make ventilators. But he has since praised the automaker after it said it would start building the machines at Kokomo.”

Are these the vents that Trump is claiming to have in hand? If GM and Ventec, with a government contract worth $490 million, have only delivered 44 up til April 17, who has made and delivered all these extra vents that Trump is talking about in his press conference?



As for the testing claim...

Not seeing any evidence of that hat either.








						Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
					

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.




					www.cdc.gov
				




*Number of specimens tested for SARS CoV-2 by CDC labs (N= 5,091) and U.S. public health laboratories* (N= 372,408)†*







I just don’t understand how a sane person can give any credence to Trump’s proven nonsense. Go ahead and support him, like him if you want to, but how the fuck can you believe his lies?


ETA
Also, America is not past the peak. How can they be? It’s a ludicrous claim.


----------



## Tankus (Apr 20, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Everything is going to be fine, the Queen will be addressing the nation at 8 pm on Sunday.
> 
> YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!





Yuwipi Woman said:


> Car insurance companies have been doing this for while in the name of "safe driving."  So far its been in exchange for a discount.  It'll become mandatory soon.





littlebabyjesus said:


> This shouldn't even be a debate. We know contact tracing works. We knew that two months ago. Among everything else, I struggle to understand why the UK abandoned this idea in March and how it still hasn't got it back going again. As someone mentioned somewhere else, the question here has to be at what stage does this become criminal negligence. At what stage is it simply manslaughter?


Am I being to cynical that the same souless fuckers who initially  had their way in pushing for a hurd  immunity response , are now thinking in terms of resolving the pension black hole and  houseing shortage all in one fell swoop.


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 20, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I looked for more recent reports but nothing came up.
> 
> I did see this though:
> 
> ...



Im just commenting on the most up to date WH presser, it’s a misconception/sport that I ‘support’ Trump, I’m just more aware of the anti-Trump bias.

It was Mike Pence that stated they’ve tested 4 million Americans to date and Trump who stated the over supply of ventilators even going as far as informing they still have federal emergency reserves  of ventilators not fully utilised.

The general tone of this press briefing was of the beginning of a tailored and measured approach to re-opening counties within states based on data, characterised by a female official (can’t remember her name or position) as a sunrise rather than an on/off switch.

On a separate note, I’ve heard that the govt here in the U.K. may be starting to allow certain business to re-open like garden centres.


----------



## elbows (Apr 20, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Just listening to the live WH coronavirus presser on now and approx 41k Americans have sadly died with projections to be around 60k by the time the virus passes - so, if that end figure pans out it will be well under the 100k original projection that was made.  The main concern is the possibility of certain states opening up too quickly and a relapse in fatalities occur.



They say those figures because they are using the IHME model that we have talked about lots before, and that plenty of people criticise, probably for rather good reason.









						IHME | COVID-19 Projections
					

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.




					covid19.healthdata.org
				




And a site that shows how this model projections have changed over time, all nicely graphed:





__





						COVID Projections Tracker
					






					www.covid-projections.com


----------



## krtek a houby (Apr 20, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Im just commenting on the most up to date WH presser, it’s a misconception/sport that I ‘support’ Trump, I’m just more aware of the anti-Trump bias.
> 
> It was Mike Pence that stated they’ve tested 4 million Americans to date and Trump who stated the over supply of ventilators even going as far as informing they still have federal emergency reserves  of ventilators not fully utilised.
> 
> ...



You're unquestioningly accepting the word of a regime that is more concerned with its image and election chances than its dead.

He's egging on the protesters, as he did in Charlottesville. 

He's also contradicting the advice of his medical experts and himself, whilst creating more anti-asian sentiment.

There's plenty propaganda and vicious bile coming from the White House without you assuming the devil's advocate guise and reposting it in a watered down, palatable fashion.


----------



## wayward bob (Apr 20, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I'm sure we've got places here in the UK that could churn PPE gowns etc. out by the thousand. They just need to take control of the factories and make the stuff. And that's even ignoring we've had months of notice now.


there are many volunteer efforts to do just this but yes, it should be the government doing this.

i've joined a (crowd funded) group set up by tv/film costumers. materials are centrally ordered, pre-cut and then distributed to individuals/small businesses with industrial machines for assembly. they have people directly in touch with the hospitals who distribute finished scrubs according to stated needs.

this only covers the re-usable portions of uniform, not single-use, but it's a thing, and it's being done. imagine if the government was half so time-motivated or organised


----------



## teqniq (Apr 20, 2020)




----------



## two sheds (Apr 20, 2020)

Brave people, powerful message them just standing there saying nothing. 

Biden's people are doing good videos showing up Trump (lower down that first link) - bit of a shame we don't seem to be getting the same from Labour.


----------



## zahir (Apr 20, 2020)

Faroe Islands


----------



## crossthebreeze (Apr 20, 2020)

Arundhati Roy devastating writing on the situation in India: The Pandemic is a Portal
The long march home of people made unemployed and newly homeless back to villages, anti-muslim conspiracy theories and stigma, a growing healthcare crisis, and Modi's yoga nidra videos.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 20, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Im just commenting on the most up to date WH presser, it’s a misconception/sport that I ‘support’ Trump, I’m just more aware of the anti-Trump bias.
> 
> It was Mike Pence that stated they’ve tested 4 million Americans to date and Trump who stated the over supply of ventilators even going as far as informing they still have federal emergency reserves  of ventilators not fully utilised.
> 
> ...




But you didn’t comment on it, you merely repeated it, as if it was a fact.

Contrary to the claim that they’re testing a million people a day (just think about the that Marty1 ... how is it even possible to be testing one million people a day in America?) , this report from CNN says it’s 150,000 a day.









						US coronavirus death toll tops 40,000 as researchers call for more testing before reopening economy
					

The United States' coronavirus death toll topped 40,000 on Sunday afternoon, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.




					edition.cnn.com
				





“Testing nationwide is currently at 150,000 per day, they said, adding that "If we can't be doing at least 500,000 tests a day by May 1, it is hard to see any way we can remain open."...”


(See how that works? I didn’t say “they’re testing 15,000 a day” I said “this report says that they’re testing...”)


It doesn’t matter if it was Trump or Pence who said the thing about the vents; it’s the Trump administration, which is supporting Trump’s ambitions for a second term.

This idea of America being able to get back to normal in a week or two is dangerous nonsense. I can’t believe you believe it. Do you really beleive it ? On what grounds? Other than the say-so of a female whose name and credentials you can’t  recall?

What the UK is doing or not doing is not relevant here, other than to say that we’re several weeks ahead of the US and only now considering the possibility of loosening the lockdown, so how can America be ready for releasing their much less comprehensive lockdown?

As for your unbiased opinion of Trump, I’d have more respect for that if you could support any of his claims with reports from anywhere that wasn’t FOX or the Mail or some other brown-nose.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 20, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> US coronavirus death toll tops 40,000 as researchers call for more testing before reopening economy
> 
> 
> The United States' coronavirus death toll topped 40,000 on Sunday afternoon, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
> ...


A basic sanity check:

As of a few minutes ago the US had performed 3,861,596 tests in total.

If they are testing 1 million per day, that's a lot of time squandered spent navel gazing.

If they are currently testing 150,000 per day that's easily a month's worth of testing, if not the best part of two months allowing for ramp up.

Which makes most sense?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 20, 2020)

Has Marty1 become an U75 project?  

_Educating Marty _


----------



## two sheds (Apr 20, 2020)

I like it that we're "biased" against a racist, homophobic, narcissistic, white supremacist who's been accused of rape, sexual assault and sexual harassment. Says volumes that Marty virtually always sides with him.

I was bloody tempted to report the post for "being a dick" but didn't want to take editor's time up. Can we throw a celebratory party thread when it's finally banned?


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 20, 2020)

2hats said:


> A basic sanity check:
> 
> As of a few minutes ago the US had performed 3,861,596 tests in total.
> 
> ...




I don't know.

None of this makes much sense tbh.

Maybe the point is that it's not really possible to know anything for sure right now, so just repeating whatever is said at a WH press conference can't be relied on as truth.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 20, 2020)

Oh I think we can rely on whatever is said at a WH press conference being very far from the truth.

It is bizarre, tbh, the state we're in. The UK govt avoids giving out any information really at its press conferences in its feeble attempt to hide the truth of its fuckups. Trump just outright lies. And contradicts what he himself said before without the slightest compunction. How the hell did we get here?


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 20, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Has Marty1 become an U75 project?
> 
> _Educating Marty _




I've been trying to work out why I'm engaging.
Maybe because I have much-loved friends and family in America and it pains me to see dangerous bullshit posted up as fact.


----------



## Yuwipi Woman (Apr 20, 2020)

Tankus said:


> Am I being to cynical that the same souless fuckers who initially  had their way in pushing for a hurd  immunity response , are now thinking in terms of resolving the pension black hole and  houseing shortage all in one fell swoop.



I'm not certain its possible to be too cynical.  Just when I think I've reached "peak cynicism" and can't be surprised any more, I get yet another example of how low some people are willing to go.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 20, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I don't know.
> 
> None of this makes much sense tbh.
> 
> Maybe the point is that it's not really possible to know anything for sure right now, so just repeating whatever is said at a WH press conference can't be relied on as truth.


No, there is one easy answer in this case.

More generally, there are answers. One just needs basic maths and critical thinking skills to eliminate the bullshit (as if there were any doubt).


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 20, 2020)

2hats said:


> No, there is one easy answer in this case.
> 
> More generally, there are answers. One just needs basic maths and critical thinking skills to eliminate the bullshit (as if there were any doubt).




Yes. Sorry. I was being flip and faux-disingenuous. Should have added a  or something to my post.


----------



## elbows (Apr 20, 2020)

littlebabyjesus I found a research topic if you are interesting in doing some digging. I was researching something else at the time, so havent had time to check facts or investigate, but its about Germany so I thought you might be interested. I heard that UK excess winter mortality generally sucks compared to Germany. So maybe there are a bunch of things they are always better at, or better placed to cope with for any number of reasons, than us. And this pandemic is perhaps reflecting those things as well as the obvious stuff like testing and size of epidemic at the point of lockdown.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 20, 2020)

I don't think we've had this - an article (UK focussed but relevant to data gathering across many countries), by two London based health biostatisticians, that underscores some of the issues and various difficulties in counting, reporting and modelling mortality data during this epidemic:









						Why counting coronavirus deaths is not an exact science | Gianluca Baio and Marta Blangiardo
					

It’s the data that gets all the headlines, but the two main sources of information in the UK have their own limits, say Profs Gianluca Baio and Marta Blangiardo




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## elbows (Apr 20, 2020)

2hats said:


> Why counting coronavirus deaths is not an exact science | Gianluca Baio and Marta Blangiardo
> 
> 
> It’s the data that gets all the headlines, but the two main sources of information in the UK have their own limits, say Profs Gianluca Baio and Marta Blangiardo
> ...



They havent been looking at the spreadsheet tabs properly!



> One crucial difference between the two meta sources is the temporal resolution: the DHSC provides daily updates, while from 31 March the ONS has been reporting weekly data. Thus the DHSC data is instrumental in estimating the underlying mortality trends. ONS data can be used only to make week-on-week comparisons.



Actually the spreadsheet I got from the following ONS site has daily numbers on the 'Covid-19 E&W comparisons' and 'Covid-19 England comparisons' tabs.






						Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional       - Office for National Statistics
					

Provisional counts of the number of deaths registered in England and Wales, by age, sex and region, in the latest weeks for which data are available. Includes the most up-to-date figures available for deaths involving coronavirus (COVID-19).



					www.ons.gov.uk


----------



## smokedout (Apr 20, 2020)

Okay, this may be meaningless because of how noisy the data is but since I don't have much better to do and I bothered to work it out.  There seems to be a correlation between the Case Fatality Rate (to date) and how much testing has gone on.

Based on the worldmeters's site (more noise) the 10 countries that have tested most have the following CFRs:

Iceland .508% CFR
12% population tested
0.38% infected

UAE  .610% CFR
7.7% Population tested
0.06% infected

Luxembourg  2.05% CFR
5.3% population tested
0.4% infected

Malta 0.69% CFR
5.2% population tested
0.09% infected

Bahrain 0.73% CFR
5.2% population tested
0.11 infected

San Marino 8.45% CFR
5% Population tested
1.36% population infected

Estonia 2.6% CFR
3.08% population tested
0.16% infected

San Marino is a bit of an outlier, although they do have a much higher infection rate than anyone else and are probably deeper into the curve.  All the other countries will see more deaths.  I left out the Faroe Isle, Falklands, and Gibraltor (who have all tested like mad) because they don't have any recorded deaths yet, although they have a total of 327 cases betwen them.   To put these figures in context Spain, France and Italy all have CFRs of around 10-15%.

Looking at countries with similar infection rates, the UK has an infection rate of 0.177% and a CFR of 13.37% with 0.7% of the population tested so far whilst Germany has an infection rate of 0.174%, a CFR of 3.18% with 2% of people tested.  Belgium has an infection rate of 0.34%, a CFR of 14.57% and has tested 1.4% of the population, Switzerland has an infection rate of 0.32, a CFR of 5.03% and has tested 2.6% of people.

Anyway the correlation  doesn't hold up so well at the lower end of the scale, in places that have done fuck all testing, including Japan who seem to have a v low CFR so far, but that could be because those countries are very early into their outbreaks or are not recording all deaths.  And also the CFRs to date of anywhere don't really give us any indication of how those countries will end up.  I just thought it was interesting and perhaps points to the CFR being towards to lower end of what has been feared, as well as suggesting that a high CFR and a lot of deaths may point to a much larger rate of transmission then testing has revealed.  Or not, like I said, it's all a bit noisy, gave me something to  do though.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 20, 2020)

smokedout said:


> Okay, this may be meaningless because of how noisy the data is but since I don't have much better to do and I bothered to work it out.  There seems to be a correlation between the Case Fatality Rate (to date) and how much testing has gone on.


At the risk of repeating what has been said before: if a country does not test widely and sufficiently enough (for its size of population) then the case counts are meaningless. The apparent CFR (crude CFR) is artificially high (especially in places like the UK where the vast bulk of those tested to date have been the seriously ill).

In those countries the case figure is under-reported by one, by an order of magnitude, if not more.

For the UK, the current case count (as I type this) is 120,067. Both evidence and modelling points to the true number being _at least_ ten times this.


----------



## elbows (Apr 20, 2020)

Variations in testing make all the difference in the world to CFR's, its one of the reason I've tried to completely ignore the CFR since the early days.

Ultimately, having seen how much the total number of deaths for a week went up by in ONS data, compared to how many ones with Covid-19 on death certificate were listed for that week, I am probably going to judge the pandemic on total deaths rather than ones we actually label Covid-19. There are a bunch of reasons, and its a very long-term phenomenon which has been commented on for a long time. 

Lets travel back in time to 1951:

Discussion: Influenza 1951 - SAGE Journalsjournals.sagepub.com › doi › pdf › 003591575104400903 (page labelled 22)



> "The total mortality from all causes during influenza epidemics rises much more than can be accounted for merely by the number of deaths certified due to influenza. This is something that has been noticed for a very long time. Farr commented on it in regard to the influenza of 1847, mentioning, incidentally, that a similar sort of thing had happened during the Great Plague of 1665. It was discussed by Stevenson in the Registrar-General's report on the 1918-19 epidemic, and was studied in some detail sixteen years ago by Stocks."





> In terms of numbers of deaths there were 6,000 more deaths from influenza registered in the Great Towns in the first eight weeks of 1951 than of 1950, but the total deaths from all causes increased by 25,000. The weather during the early weeks of this year was not exceptionally cold-as it was in 1947 with the resulting increase in total mortality shown in Fig. 2-so that the increase in numbers of deaths in 1951 must be presumed due in some way to the influenza epidemic. Various suggestions have been put forward from time to time to account for the excess of deaths from all causes that regularly occurs during epidemics of influenza. The explanation that at once comes to mind is that the additional deaths were really due to influenza but were either not recognized as such or, if so recognized, were not stated by the certifier as being associated with influenza. This is not necessarily the whole story, however, and other suggestions that have been made hypothesize an "epidemic constitution" or else a separate epidemic of the secondary bacterial invaders of virus influenza.


----------



## smokedout (Apr 20, 2020)

2hats said:


> At the risk of repeating what has been said before: if a country does not test widely and sufficiently enough (for its size of population) then the case counts are meaningless. The apparent CFR (crude CFR) is artificially high (especially in places like the UK where the vast bulk of those tested to date have been the seriously ill).
> 
> In those countries the case figure is under-reported by one, by an order of magnitude, if not more.
> 
> For the UK, the current case count (as I type this) is 120,067. Both evidence and modelling points to the true number being _at least_ ten times this.



Well yes, that was kind of my point, and I posted some data showing how that might impact on what the CFR turns out to be which I thought was interesting.


----------



## little_legs (Apr 20, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Has Marty1 become an U75 project?
> 
> _Educating Marty _


Can we rename it to _Futile Attempts to Reason with the Board's Proud Boy_


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 20, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Has Marty1 become an U75 project?
> 
> _Educating Marty _


marty21 has long walked the boards as a thespian in the world of am dram. back in 1998 he played professor higgins in a run of bernard shaw's pygmalion. if anyone should educate the lacklustre Marty1 it should be he


----------



## elbows (Apr 20, 2020)

2hats said:


> I don't think we've had this - an article (UK focussed but relevant to data gathering across many countries), by two London based health biostatisticians, that underscores some of the issues and various difficulties in counting, reporting and modelling mortality data during this epidemic:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



By the way I note the article briefly mentions in passing:



> For instance, there is evidenceto suggest a strong association between air pollution and Covid-19-related mortality. This may explain why heavily polluted areas such as Lombardy in Italy have been badly affected by the virus.



If this were a film and I was writing the script, the virus would only kill when certain kinds of pollution were present, and the film would be called 'The Virus that Ate Cars'!


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 20, 2020)

Bit surprised nobody has mentioned the real outlier in the world here, Nicaragua. Ortega has refused to implement social distancing let alone lockdown, insisting the virus is a 'sign from God' against militarism and hegemony. (It says here). 









						Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega reappears to call coronavirus 'a sign from God'
					

President, 74, who had not been seen in public for over a month, has played down crisis, claiming only one Covid-19 death




					www.theguardian.com
				




Not only that, having spent the last few years suppressing social protest and mass gatherings, he is now positively encouraging them.

Nicaragua has reported 10 cases and 2 deaths. The salt is over there ------->


----------



## weltweit (Apr 20, 2020)

Brazil's Bolsonaro joins anti-lockdown protests


> Mr Bolsonaro has clashed in recent weeks with state governors who have imposed lockdowns, denouncing the measures as "dictatorial".
> 
> As of Sunday, Brazil had more than 38,000 confirmed cases, the highest number in Latin America.
> 
> More than 2,400 people there have died.





> ..
> Journalists have noted that at Sunday's rally the president neither wore a face mask, even though he coughed on occasion, nor gloves - precautions which many other politicians in the region are taking.
> 
> He has in the past dismissed coronavirus as "little more than a flu".
> ..





> The president did not wear a mask and was seen coughing
> ..
> Last week, the president sacked his health minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, who had backed the lockdown measures.
> 
> President Bolsonaro argues that the lockdown measures are damaging the economy and has argued that they should be eased and Brazil's borders reopened.


from 20/04/2020 Brazil's president joins anti-lockdown protests


----------



## weltweit (Apr 20, 2020)

Is Ghana right to ease lockdown?


> Some say Ghana's President Nana Akufo-Addo has taken a risky move, noting that the country has confirmed more than 1,000 known cases of coronavirus.
> 
> However, low-income earners such as street traders, have welcomed the lifting of the restrictions - they would have found it difficult to feed their families if it had continued.





> ..
> But in recent days some health experts had been calling for the lockdown to be extended and even widened across the country.
> 
> The official data shows that the African continent is still the least affected by the coronavirus pandemic.


from: 20/04/2020 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-africa-47639452


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 20, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> But you didn’t comment on it, you merely repeated it, as if it was a fact.
> 
> Contrary to the claim that they’re testing a million people a day (just think about the that Marty1 ... how is it even possible to be testing one million people a day in America?) , this report from CNN says it’s 150,000 a day.
> 
> ...



Well, you’re linking a CNN article thats as equally if not more partisan than the media entities you claim ‘brown-nose’ so I don’t think you can claim any moral high ground here.

Nonetheless, the CNN article matches the figures that Mike Pence stated regarding testing, 1 million per week - CNN reports ‘_Testing nationwide is currently at 150,000 per day’, (_just over 1 million per week).

I agree that the U.K. situation is different than the US, for one - the U.K. is tiny compared to the US - eg. the state of Texas alone is about 10 times or so larger than the U.K which in itself requires a different approach no doubt regarding how the US opens back up compared to here in the UK.

It’s likely that the governor’s of each individual state will make determinations on how to phase their respective re-opening’s.

Democrat governors are already starting to open up certain parts of their districts.









						Marinas and boatyards are cleared to open in New York, Connecticut and New Jersey - RiverheadLOCAL
					

The green light to open marinas, boatyards and marine manufacturers bolsters a key economic sector that employs more than 7,000 people and is estimated to have had a $1.6 billion economic impact in Suffolk last year.




					riverheadlocal.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 20, 2020)

Oil prices plunged below zero on Monday


> NEW YORK (AP) — Oil prices plunged below zero on Monday as demand for energy collapses amid the coronavirus pandemic and traders don’t want to get stuck owning crude with nowhere to store it.
> ..
> Brent crude, the international standard, was down $1.78 to $26.30 per barrel.


from 20/04/2020 Oil prices drop below zero, sending Dow, stocks lower


----------



## weltweit (Apr 20, 2020)

Ecuador sees massive surge in deaths in April


> Ecuador's official coronavirus death toll is 403, but new figures from one province suggest thousands have died.
> 
> The government said 6,700 people died in Guayas province in the first two weeks of April, far more than the usual 1,000 deaths there in the same period.





> ..
> Footage obtained by the BBC showed residents forced to store bodies in their homes for up to five days.
> ..
> According to the government's figures, 14,561 people have died in Guayas province since the beginning of March from all causes. The province normally sees 2,000 deaths a month on average.


from 17/04/2020 Massive surge in deaths in Ecuador's Guayaquil


----------



## weltweit (Apr 20, 2020)

The news is saying India is relaxing its lockdown already ..


----------



## miss direct (Apr 20, 2020)

Four day lockdown this week 😢


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 20, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The news is saying India is relaxing its lockdown already ..



This is the BBC's version of the above .... .... (20/4/20)




			
				BBC said:
			
		

> *India has eased some restrictions imposed as part of a nationwide lockdown to curb the spread of the coronavirus.*
> Most of the new measures are targeted at easing pressure on farming, which employs more than half the nation's workforce.
> Allowing farms to operate again has been seen as essential to avoid food shortages.


----------



## hipipol (Apr 20, 2020)

Meanwhile oil closes at MINUS $19.82. ie the producers are having to PAY PEOPLE to take it off em, they have no more storage. Expect a lot of the Fracking nutters will go bust - hardly universal joy but a tiny sliver of good news, it may also give the Orange Idiot a heart attack.............


----------



## zahir (Apr 21, 2020)

Lebanon


----------



## 2hats (Apr 21, 2020)

Meanwhile, in Madagascar:









						Madagascar’s president promotes unproven herbal cure for COVID-19
					

The president of Madagascar, Andry Rajoelina, on April 20 appeared to promote an unproven treatment for COVID-19.  The remedy, named COVID-ORGANICS, is effective against the virus, Rajoelina said, speaking in Malagasy at the launch of the product in the capital Antananarivo. The product...




					news.mongabay.com


----------



## little_legs (Apr 21, 2020)




----------



## weltweit (Apr 21, 2020)

little_legs wonder if the question will come up in today's press briefing?


----------



## Petcha (Apr 21, 2020)




----------



## weltweit (Apr 21, 2020)

Trump is such a dick, however who is Biden? I am afraid I expect Trump to be re-elected.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 21, 2020)

München's Octoberfest, the world's largest beer festival, which usually attracts millions is cancelled.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 21, 2020)

The BBC have put up an Africa covid-19 tracking page with an interactive map and charting. 
The page is here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-4a11d568-2716-41cf-a15e-7d15079548bc


----------



## weltweit (Apr 21, 2020)

Kim Jong-un illness rumours denied amid intense speculation


> Reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is seriously ill after heart surgery are not true, officials in South Korea have said.
> 
> Headlines that Kim Jong-un was "gravely ill", "brain-dead" or "recovering from an operation" were always going to be impossible to verify.





> ..
> Kim Jong-un recently missed the celebration of his grandfather's birthday on 15 April. This is one of the biggest events of the year, marking the birth of the nation's founder.
> 
> Kim Jong-un has never missed it - and it seemed very unlikely that he would simply choose not to turn up.





> ..
> In 2014, Kim Jong-Un disappeared for 40 days from early September - which sparked a torrent of speculation, including that he had been ousted in a coup by other political grandees.
> 
> Then he re-appeared, pictured with a cane.


from 21/04/2020 Kim Jong-un illness rumours denied by South Korea

Note there has been speculation here too: Kim Jong il dead.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 21, 2020)

India 

Should people pay for their own Covid-19 tests?


> According to the new order, issued on 13 April, the government will reimburse private labs for testing the 500 million people covered by a flagship public health insurance scheme. The rest would have to pay.
> ..
> India's numbers - 15,712  active cases and 507 deaths - are relatively low for a country of 1.3bn. Many believe this is because it's still testing too little - as of Sunday there had been 386,791.





> But scaling up is a challenge. The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has approved only one homegrown testing kit so far, imports are delayed because of a global surge in demand, and the protective gear and medical staff required to conduct tests are in short supply. Also the sheer size of India’s population, and the resources needed to reach every corner of the country, is daunting.
> ..
> Right now, Indians are getting tested only if a doctor advises them to do so. But the long wait at government hospitals, and the prohibitive cost at private ones, could deter even those with symptoms from showing up.





> “If you want to contain a pandemic, you can’t have testing determined by cost,” says Jayati Ghosh, an economics professor at Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University.
> ..
> India is also considering pool testing, which involves collecting a large number of samples and testing them in one go. If the test is negative, nobody has the virus but if it’s positive, everyone who gave a sample has to be tested individually.
> 
> “It’s definitely a good way to reduce costs - as long as it’s done efficiently and smartly,” Ms Brar says.


from 20/04/2020 Should Indians pay for their own coronavirus tests?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 21, 2020)

I had never come across the idea of pool testing. I suppose if the majority of the pool thought they were clean it could reduce costs and time in getting a clear result. But if as many as one are infected unless they have already collected enough material to test all individually a second time it could be a pain.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 21, 2020)

One more on India

India coronavirus: Can the Covid-19 lockdown spark a clean air movement?


> When India shut down last month and suspended all transport to contain the spread of coronavirus, the skies over its polluted cities quickly turned an azure blue, and the air, unusually fresh.
> 
> As air pollution plummeted to levels unseen in living memory, people shared pictures of spotless skies and even Himalayan peaks from cities where the view had been obscured by fog for decades.





> ..
> "The current crisis has shown us that clear skies and breathable air can be achieved very fast if concrete action is taken to reduce burning of fossil fuels," says Sunil Dahiya, of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, which has also been tracking air pollution levels during the lockdown.


from 21/04/2020 How the virus cleared the world’s most polluted skies


----------



## weltweit (Apr 22, 2020)

We are getting a preview of the air quality possible in our cities once vehicles have moved on from petrol and diesel combustion engines to electric or fuel cells. 

And it looks good!


----------



## teqniq (Apr 22, 2020)

Speaking of air quality:









						Air pollution may be ‘key contributor’ to Covid-19 deaths – study
					

Research shows almost 80% of deaths across four countries were in most polluted regions




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Roadkill (Apr 22, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Speaking of air quality:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It may be that the study has considered this - I've not looked - but I can't help wondering where population density fits in.  After all, the most polluted areas also tend to be the more densely populated, and obviously with more people in close proximity the virus spreads more easily.  I can well believe that higher NO2 levels worsen the effects of it, though.


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 22, 2020)

Peru.



Peruvians are stopped by riot police in Lima as they try to make their way to San Martin and other parts of the country on 18 April. Photograph: Reuters
Riot police in Peru have blockaded a major highway and fired teargas into crowds of people attempting to flee the capital city and return on foot to their rural hometowns as the country’s strict coronavirus lockdown entered its sixth week.
Local television images on Monday showed hundreds of families, including young children, trekking along highways with their belongings on their backs as they made long journeys to family homes.
Poor Peruvians have been trying to leave Lima since last week, many saying they had to choose between hunger or homelessness in the city or risking exposure to Covid-19 as they attempt to return home.
“Here in Lima there are no longer any jobs, there is no longer any way to pay for food, we do not have any more savings,” Maricela de la Cruz told the Associated Press.
“We have done everything possible to stay the 30 quarantine days. Now we want to go back because we have a house, family, we have someone who can support us – here in Lima we have absolutely no one,” said De la Cruz, who was trying to return to Huancayo, in Peru’s central Andes.
Despite imposing some of the most stringent quarantine measures in Latin America since mid-March, Peru reported 16,325 coronavirus cases and 400 deaths on Monday, a figure which placed it second only to Brazil in the number of infections in the region. Brazil has a population seven times larger than Peru.
Yet the response of the Peruvian president, Martín Vizcarra, and his Brazilian counterpart could not be more different.

While the Brazilian leader, Jair Bolsonaro, has consistently flouted social distancing rules and downplayed the Covid-19 pandemic, Vizcarra is widely seen by Peruvians to have reacted decisively to the pandemic, deploying troops and the police to enforce a lockdown and a nightly curfew.
Vizcarra said on Monday that the weeks ahead would be the most difficult and would require “everyone’s highest capacity to respond”.
“The number of patients is close to exceeding the capacity of the health service,” he said.
Alonso Segura, a former Peruvian finance minister, said the mass movements of people to the countryside showed the state response was pushed to its limits, despite having launched a huge stimulus package worth 90bn soles (£21bn) – equivalent to about 12% of GDP – last month, which included millions of fortnightly cash transfers to poor families.
More than 70% of Peruvians work in the unregulated economy, according to the country’s statistics institute.
“The government cannot push the severe lockdown much longer,” said Segura. “Companies are going bankrupt and the desperation of the people is increasing. More than an economic issue, it’s a social issue,” he added.









						Peru: riot police block highway as people attempt to flee amid lockdown
					

Police also fired teargas into crowds of people as country’s coronavirus lockdown entered sixth week




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 22, 2020)

Latin America in general.

Coronavirus vs poverty. Longer read but worth it. But it's depressing.









						Lockdowns leave poor Latin Americans with impossible choice: stay home or feed families
					

Families struggle to maintain coronavirus restrictions as they seek to stay afloat: ‘My fear is my children going hungry’




					www.theguardian.com
				




Leaders across Latin America have ordered their citizens indoors as they struggle to tame the coronavirus.

But for Liliana Pérez, an Argentinian single mother of six, staying at home is a pipe dream.

“My fear isn’t becoming infected. My fear is my children going hungry,” said Pérez, a 43-year-old volunteer from Villa Soldati, a pocket of extreme poverty in Buenos Aires, who is delivering hot meals to older people out of a baby’s pram.

More than 1,500 miles away, Rio de Janeiro’s 6.7 million residents – 20% of whom live in redbrick _favelas_ – also have instructions to hunker down.

But each day Marcos de Oliveira rises before dawn in the Vila Aliança community and heads out to keep his household afloat.

“It’s not just any old cold. It’s an illness we still don’t properly understand and I can see it’s getting worse in Brazil,” Oliveira, a 45-year-old metalworker, said of Covid-19, which has now claimed nearly 2,500 Brazilian lives.

“But unfortunately people have to work – we’ve got to make a living.”

Across Latin America and the Caribbean – where an estimated 113 million people live in low-income _barrios_,_ favelas_ or _villas_ – families are struggling to adapt to coronavirus lockdowns or social isolation orders because of more immediate financial imperatives.

“People are more worried about being able to feed their families than they are about the coronavirus,” said Pérez, one of more than three million people who live in Argentina’s densely populated _villas_.

In recent days, as some governments have announced aid packages to help their poorest citizens stay home, there have been reports of containment measures fraying in places such as Venezuela’s Petare and Brazil’s Rocinha, two of Latin America’s largest communities.

“There’s an avalanche of people here in the streets,” José Martins, a leader in Rocinha, told local media. “I think 60% to 70% of shops have reopened.”

César Sanabria, an organizer in Buenos Aires’ Villa 31 community, said the situation there was similar and cited cramped living conditions as one explanation.

“We’re trying to keep safe but it’s very difficult when a whole family
lives in only 16 square metres,” said Sanabria, who runs a radio station in the 45,000-strong settlement beside Buenos Aires’ exclusive Recoleta neighbourhood.

“We’re not really isolating,” he admitted. “You still see a lot of people on the streets.”

Lockdown does seem to be working in some areas – albeit with dramatic consequences for already struggling residents.

In Colombia’s capital, Bogotá, residents of deprived neighbourhoods have tied red rags to their windows to signal that those inside are going hungry. Riot police last week clashed with residents in Ciudad Bolívar, a sprawling mountainside neighbourhood, who were demanding food supplies promised by the president, Iván Duque.

“I’ve got no money and nothing to eat,” complained María Ticona, 44, a mother of five from Villa Copacabana, a deprived corner of El Alto, a high-altitude city above Bolivia’s de facto capital, La Paz.

Before the lockdown – which is being strictly enforced by Bolivian troops – Ticona sold bread and scraped together perhaps $4 a day. That income has evaporated. “My kids haven’t eaten properly since the quarantine began,” she complained.

Nancy Ramos, a 44-year-old resident of El Valle, a working-class community in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, said the streets around her home were largely quiet – even if part of the credit lay with local gangsters waging a turf war in a time of coronavirus.

“By 7pm, the neighborhood looks like a cemetery. There’s nobody around,” said Ramos, a car park manager who was still having to work.

“I’d say the first two weeks, people were stressed out about the quarantine – nervous of getting the virus,” she added. “Now, we have a new shock: staying safe while the little gang boys run around.”

Tepito – a hardscrabble _barrio_ in central Mexico City that houses a bustling street market – is also subdued. “Eighty per cent of businesses are closed,” said Mario Puga, a local historian and activist.

Residents of Rio’s 1,000-odd _favelas_ say they are finding hibernating harder.

“When I got home tonight there were loads of people in the street chatting. Kids playing hide-and-seek and football,” said Oliveira. “It’s alarming.”

Social isolation also appeared to be sagging in nearby neighbourhoods, albeit for different reasons. “This morning when I was on my way to work … the bus passed a petrol station and it was packed... cars all over the place, lots of people there boozing. It was like they were throwing a rave in the petrol station,” Oliveira joked.

Ivan França Jr, an epidemiologist from the University of São Paulo’s faculty of public health, said that for isolation orders to work they had to be accompanied by economic aid.

“Social distancing can’t just be: ‘Don’t leave your homes,’” he said. “This is a very elitist and middle-class mindset.”

Brazil’s former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who was born into privation and won acclaim for his poverty relief work, said governments needed to do more to help the poor cope. “People will stay at home if they’re given the means to stay at home,” Lula told the Guardian.

Regional governments say they are moving to offer such support.

More than 45 million Brazilians will reportedly receive an emergency stipend of 600 reais (£91, $113) – although the president, Jair Bolsonaro, has warned such support cannot go on “eternally”.

In Bolivia, where more than 80% of the labour force works in the informal sector, the interim president, Jeanine Áñez, has announced a 500 _boliviano_ (£58, $73) benefit. “What we want is for not a single citizen to be left without help or income,” Áñez said last week.

But there and across the region, some of Latin America’s neediest citizens say that is too little, too late.

Before coronavirus, María Angélica García, a 40-year-old from El Alto with Parkinson’s disease, fed her five children and bought her medicines by begging at the Ceja street market with a cardboard sign.

With the Bolivian bazaar now deserted and locals stranded at home she was penniless and hungry.

“I hope this coronavirus situation sorts itself out,” García said. “I can’t believe what has happened.”



A military policeman uses a loudspeaker to tell people to go home during a total lockdown in El Alto, Bolivia, on 3 April. Photograph: Aizar Raldes/AFP via Getty Images


----------



## bellaozzydog (Apr 22, 2020)

under reporting of U.K. deaths real figure 41,000  





__





						UK coronavirus deaths  more than double official figure, according to FT study | Free to read
					






					amp.ft.com


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 22, 2020)

Inequality in Paraguay. Report from April 12th.









						Paraguayans go hungry as coronavirus lockdown ravages livelihoods
					

Early, aggressive measures seem to be controlling the disease but the pandemic has laid bare the country’s social inequalities




					www.theguardian.com
				




*Paraguayans go hungry as coronavirus lockdown ravages livelihoods*
Early, aggressive measures seem to be controlling the disease but the pandemic has laid bare the country’s social inequalities

When Covid-19 arrived in South America, Paraguay was one of the first countries to take measures to contain the virus, closing schools and banning public gatherings after just the second confirmed case on 11 March.

The nationwide lockdown seems to be controlling the spread of the disease, but it has created another problem: large numbers of Paraguayans are going hungry in their own homes.

Paraguay has reported some of the lowest infection rates in South America – currently 129 confirmed cases and six deaths.

But the government of President Mario Abdo Benítez has been heavily criticised for failing to support people left without income during the total quarantine – which is now coming to the end of the third week and is set to continue until 19 April.

Sixty-five per cent of Paraguay’s workers earn their living in the informal economy and have no access to benefits during the coronavirus crisis.

And while the government has been authorised to secure loans of $1.6bn to face the crisis, only a small part of a promised scheme of emergency payments of about $76 and food packs have reached those left in need. A further payment scheme is yet to be implemented.

Valentina Osuna, a craftswoman and mother of four from the indigenous Qom village of Rosarino, said she was no longer able to sell her work.

“There’s no support, there’s nothing from the state. My children are hungry.”

Abdo Benítez has apologised for the situation and called for patience. But when he briefly boarded a public bus last week to greet passengers, he was heckled with demands for the promised support payments.

The scale of the crisis has been shown by the recent launch of AyudaPy – an open-source, non-governmental website allowing users to request and offer help. Thousands of messages are being posted daily by people describing dire circumstances and requesting basic items like milk, bread and medicine.

Óscar Pereira, member of a residents’ organisation in the deprived Tacumbú neighbourhood of Asunción, the capital, said: “The mutual solidarity on display is outstanding; poor people are helping other poor people. We’re all helping and giving what we can: we’re cooking communally so that we can get food to people.”

As it has across Latin America, the coronavirus crisis has laid bare social inequalities and the poor state of public infrastructure. Amid widespread outrage, the government has promised a reform of a state that is underfunded and plagued by corruption and highly skewed tax policies.

However, for Alicia Amarilla, national coordinator of the Organisation of Rural and Indigenous Women, not even promises of reform can guarantee greater dignity for Paraguay’s many poor families.

“We’re going to see many more difficult situations come from this crisis – we’re in a country with far too much inequality. We know that the government won’t take privileges away from those that have them. The people who are most in need are the ones who will continue suffering.”


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 22, 2020)

And if you want some comment about all that...I know it's wrong to play off parts of the world against each other but I find Latin America's plight especially depressing. If you actually read those reports you'll find a common theme of extreme poverty, countries where 65-75% of workers do their work in the 'informal' economy - shit jobs, scraping together as little as $4 a day at times. Then they go queue for 8 hours to buy gas to cook on. If they're not already trying to get back to the 'safety net' of their families that they left to try and find money to support.

I'm afraid that us moaning about vouchers instead of a refund on our cancelled flights, or dobbing our neighbours in to the police for having a friend around is just not in the same league. Barely on the same planet. Spare a thought for Latin America.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 22, 2020)

FFS


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 22, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> And if you want some comment about all that...I know it's wrong to play off parts of the world against each other but I find Latin America's plight especially depressing. If you actually read those reports you'll find a common theme of extreme poverty, countries where 65-75% of workers do their work in the 'informal' economy - shit jobs, scraping together as little as $4 a day at times. Then they go queue for 8 hours to buy gas to cook on. If they're not already trying to get back to the 'safety net' of their families that they left to try and find money to support.
> 
> I'm afraid that us moaning about vouchers instead of a refund on our cancelled flights, or dobbing our neighbours in to the police for having a friend around is just not in the same league. Barely on the same planet. Spare a thought for Latin America.



And, ditto for Africa.

There was footage on the news yesterday of massive queues for food in South Africa, with no social distancing, some waited 14 hours & still didn't get any.


----------



## Anju (Apr 22, 2020)

Some good news from Brazil. Basic income equivalent to about half of minimum wage being paid to tens of millions of the poorest people. The best part being that it's largely in response to public protest and was guided by a number of grassroots organisations who got a much better deal than the government were initially considering.


Covid-19: Brazil implements basic income policy following massive civil society campaign


----------



## kabbes (Apr 22, 2020)

elbows (and others) -- you might be interested in this.









						Video Conferencing, Web Conferencing, Webinars, Screen Sharing
					

Zoom is the leader in modern enterprise video communications, with an easy, reliable cloud platform for video and audio conferencing, chat, and webinars across mobile, desktop, and room systems. Zoom Rooms is the original software-based conference room solution used around the world in board...




					zoom.us
				




It's only available until tomorrow, then it will be taken down.  It's a talk that Gordon Woo recently gave to the London Market Actuaries Group about modelling the COVID pandemic and its effects.  Gordon Woo is a catastrophe modeller, kind of a Big Deal in that world.  It's always worth hearing what he's been doing on disaster modelling and this is an hour's detailed talk aimed at people who do detailed modelling for a living, so it's not light touch.


----------



## yield (Apr 22, 2020)

Mexico president tells gangs to stop handing out coronavirus aid
aljazeera. 21 Apr 2020


> President Lopez Obrador called on gangs to stop distributing food and asked them to end violence instead.


----------



## NoXion (Apr 22, 2020)

I thought the Mexican government was basically under the thumb of the cartels anyway? Sounds like the dude is either risking his neck or blowing hot air, depending on how the cartels respond.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 22, 2020)

Filling the void vacated by government whether that be through supplying food, clean water or energy etc is the number 1 recruitment technique for gangs in that part of the world.  Its straight out of Pablo's playbook in Medellin. 

Instead of asking gangs to play nice they'd be better off ensuring their people have that basic stuff so gangs can't exploit the situation.


----------



## yield (Apr 22, 2020)

A Planetary Pandemic
NLR 122, Mar Apr 2020 (Editors)


> The world after covid-19 seems set to be one of heavily indebted, austerity-prone states, bailed-out corporations, hungry, impoverished working classes and expanded personal-data surveillance.
> 
> Yet two things may have changed for the better. First: albeit in authoritarian fashion, governments for the first time in generations have had to put public health above profit-making; if that can happen once, it can happen again.





> Second: for many, the crisis has provided a rare experience of thinking globally, beyond the walls of our own cultures.
> 
> It has become ordinary to conceive our species as a whole, under external threat; but also to feel for doctors and nurses in Italy or Iran, to have a sense of the distance from Wuhan to Qom, to ask how they do things in Sweden or Korea. Hopefully, some of that will last.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 22, 2020)

WHO press briefing from 22/04/2020


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 22, 2020)

This article in a US publication has a few snaps and clips showing the good results of humans being off the streets: the gorgeous sky over LA, a peacock wandering about in Dubai, wild boar in Barcelona... and "Londoners also spotted a wild fox..."









						LA's skies are smog-free and peacocks are roaming the streets of Dubai. Photos show how nature has returned to cities shut down by the coronavirus pandemic.
					

Air pollution dropped in several cities, while mountain goats overran a Welsh town as people stay indoors to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus.




					www.businessinsider.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 22, 2020)

South Africa 

South Africa deploys 70,000 troops to enforce lockdown


> Since 27 March only essential service providers, such as health workers, financial services providers, journalists and retail workers, are allowed to continue going to work.
> 
> Businesses that provide essential services have been applying for a special permit from the government that allows their members of staff to go outside.





> The restrictions include no jogging outside, no sales of alcohol or cigarettes, no dog-walking, no leaving home except for essential trips and prison or heavy fines for law-breaking.
> ..
> He also announced an economic relief package worth $26bn (£21bn) intended to protect companies and three million workers during the coronavirus pandemic.





> In a televised address, he said the assistance amounted to 10% of South Africa's entire GDP.
> 
> Mr Ramaphosa said the measures included tax relief, wage support through the unemployment insurance fund and funding to small businesses.


from 22/04/2020 S Africa deploys 70,000 troops to enforce lockdown

and 

South Africa flattens its coronavirus curve—and considers how to ease restrictions


> the country’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, declared a national state of emergency banning visitors from high-risk countries, stopping large gatherings, closing more than half of its land borders, and shutting schools. On 27 March the country started a 21-day lockdown, closing all borders and confining everyone except those performing essential services to their homes except to buy groceries and medicine or to collect welfare payments.





> ..
> The country is using that time to prepare by sending tens of thousands of community health care workers into villages and towns to screen people and refer those with symptoms for testing. By catching small community outbreaks and isolating cases, the South African response hopes to stop small flare-ups from turning into large wildfires of infection.


from 15/04/2020 South Africa flattens its coronavirus curve—and considers how to ease restrictions


----------



## teqniq (Apr 22, 2020)

This is fucking outrageous

Edit read it all here









						READ: Statement from leader of federal vaccine agency about his reassignment
					

Dr. Rick Bright, the director of the agency responsible for leading the charge on the production and purchase of vaccines in the Trump administration, released a statement Wednesday blaming political motives for his abrupt reassignment.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 23, 2020)

The French are exploring whether the use of nicotine patches may protect against the virus.









						French researchers to test nicotine patches on coronavirus patients
					

Study – which stresses serious health risks of smoking – suggest substance in tobacco may lower risk of getting coronavirus




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## smokedout (Apr 23, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> The French are exploring whether the use of nicotine patches may protect against the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



And to think I was considering stopping, I think this is the best news I've heard so far.  Best put a bit of hash in there though to keep the old SARS at bay (PDF) Cannabis Indica speeds up Recovery from Coronavirus


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 23, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> The French are exploring whether the use of nicotine patches may protect against the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I vaped pretty smugly last night while I read this article.


----------



## sptme (Apr 23, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I vaped pretty smugly last night while I read this article.


Me too!


----------



## smokedout (Apr 23, 2020)

Weird to think if I hadn't tentatively accepted that first cigarette when I was 12 years old I might be dead of coronavirus by now.


----------



## Supine (Apr 23, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> The French are exploring whether the use of nicotine patches may protect against the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Great news for me!

I wouldn't have thought nicotine patches would be the way too investigate this though. Being a respiratory disease it might be the act of smoking that helps.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 23, 2020)

Supine said:


> Great news for me!
> 
> I wouldn't have thought nicotine patches would be the way too investigate this though. Being a respiratory disease it might be the act of smoking that helps.


I am not going to get too excited by this because I recall deaths in China mainly males and the correlation being suggested that more men than women were dying and they wondered whether it was because more men than women smoked. I would have thought if smokers were dodging the bullet in China they might have noticed?


----------



## Supine (Apr 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am not going to get too excited by this because I recall deaths in China mainly males and the correlation being suggested that more men than women were dying and they wondered whether it was because more men than women smoked. I would have thought if smokers were dodging the bullet in China they might have noticed?



That was a first conclusion but then it was discovered men are more impacted than women globally, not just in male smoking countries.


----------



## JimW (Apr 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am not going to get too excited by this because I recall deaths in China mainly males and the correlation being suggested that more men than women were dying and they wondered whether it was because more men than women smoked. I would have thought if smokers were dodging the bullet in China they might have noticed?


Funnily enough I remember the earliest stats supporting the idea that smokers were lower risk though ex smokers higher mortality, but subsequently didn't have that breakdown or see it mentioned so may have read wrong.


----------



## wayward bob (Apr 23, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> The French are exploring whether the use of nicotine patches may protect against the virus.


just came to post/ask about this as it seems so strangely unlikely...

<vapes>


----------



## sparkybird (Apr 23, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Filling the void vacated by government whether that be through supplying food, clean water or energy etc is the number 1 recruitment technique for gangs in that part of the world.  Its straight out of Pablo's playbook in Medellin.
> 
> Instead of asking gangs to play nice they'd be better off ensuring their people have that basic stuff so gangs can't exploit the situation.


Not defending AMLO but in some parts of Mexico, gangs ARE effectively the government/police. I guess if you are starving you don't think too hard about where the food comes from. Desperate situation


----------



## JuanTwoThree (Apr 23, 2020)

I suppose that if a number of gang-tatted gentlemen turned up in a pick-up (lazy stereotyping)  with food and drinking water  I'd accept it. They might think me ungrateful if I didn't. Which might be counter-productive.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 23, 2020)

Another outbreak this time in a city in the north of China, Harbin.









						Chinese city tightens coronavirus travel curbs in biggest outbreak
					

A northeastern city of 10 million people, grappling with what is now China's biggest coronavirus outbreak, further restricted inbound traffic on Wednesday to contain the spread of the highly contagious disease.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Chilli.s (Apr 23, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Another outbreak this time in a city in the north of China, Harbin.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Will be interesting to see how this develops with the testing and contact tracing being put into full swing.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> We are getting a preview of the air quality possible in our cities once vehicles have moved on from petrol and diesel combustion engines to electric or fuel cells.


No! Moving to electric does not solve the air pollution problem. It improves it but it's not the solution. We need to reduce the number of vehicles, rather than potentially increasing them by a false portrayal of electric vehicles as problem free.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 23, 2020)

True that, non-exhaust emissions (from brakes and tyres) are almost as high as exhaust emissions and will grow relatively with electric vehicles.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 23, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> I agree that the U.K. situation is different than the US, for one - the U.K. is tiny compared to the US - eg. the state of Texas alone is about 10 times or so larger than the U.K which in itself requires a different approach no doubt regarding how the US opens back up compared to here in the UK.


That's completely wrong. Texas is not 10 times the size of the UK. Its 2 or 3 times the size in land area, and about half the size in population.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 23, 2020)

two sheds said:


> True that, non-exhaust emissions (from brakes and tyres) are almost as high as exhaust emissions and will grow relatively with electric vehicles.


And they don't solve congestion or safety or noise pollution problems either. Or equality of mobility.


----------



## prunus (Apr 23, 2020)

teuchter said:


> That's completely wrong. Texas is not 10 times the size of the UK. Its 2 or 3 times the size in land area, and about half the size in population.



As you’re replying to a Marty1 post, the second and third sentences are redundant.


----------



## Cid (Apr 23, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Another outbreak this time in a city in the north of China, Harbin.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Ah shit. Harbin is a major hub in the northeast.


----------



## bimble (Apr 23, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> The French are exploring whether the use of nicotine patches may protect against the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What the hell? Am extremely confused now. “Our cross-sectional study strongly suggests that those who smoke every day are much less likely to develop a symptomatic or severe infection with Sars-CoV-2 compared with the general population,” the Pitié-Salpêtrière report authors wrote.' 
Do I add this to my 'give up smoking for coronaviris thread?


----------



## Marty1 (Apr 23, 2020)

teuchter said:


> That's completely wrong. Texas is not 10 times the size of the UK. Its 2 or 3 times the size in land area, and about half the size in population.



Apparently it’s 2.85 times.  But yeah, that’s just the state of Texas alone.  We’re tiny in comparison.


----------



## bimble (Apr 23, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Apparently it’s 2.85 times.  But yeah, that’s just the state of Texas alone.  We’re tiny in comparison.


This is the same logic as the map all bigly red because of how much all the fields and rocks love mr trump.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 23, 2020)

prunus said:


> As you’re replying to a Marty1 post, the second and third sentences are redundant.




I just threw in the towel. It became obvious that it was a futile endeavour. BIt I’ll continue to watch the efforts of others.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 23, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Apparently it’s 2.85 times.  But yeah, that’s just the state of Texas alone.  We’re tiny in comparison.


No we're not. We have twice the population.


----------



## kabbes (Apr 23, 2020)

Supine said:


> Great news for me!
> 
> I wouldn't have thought nicotine patches would be the way too investigate this though. Being a respiratory disease it might be the act of smoking that helps.


No, the act of smoking will place additional stress on the lungs that will act to make things worse.  If there is a positive effect, it will have to be the nicotine.

That’s backed up in theory too, because it’s known that nicotine has an effect on acetylcholine receptors.  It therefore makes sense that it support impact this condition.  The question has always been whether the effect is enough to actually have a meaningful impact.

Smoking itself directly has a 50% fatality rate, even leaving aside secondary impacts, by the way.  So smoking to prevent a disease with a 1% fatality rate if you actually catch it would be the height of lunacy.


----------



## Supine (Apr 23, 2020)

Don't give us smokers facts. If we followed those we wouldn't be smokers


----------



## NoXion (Apr 23, 2020)

teuchter said:


> No! Moving to electric does not solve the air pollution problem. It improves it but it's not the solution. We need to reduce the number of vehicles, rather than potentially increasing them by a false portrayal of electric vehicles as problem free.



It will solve the problem if combined with a push to decarbonise the energy grid. That's part of the reason why shifting from fossil fuels to fission and renewables is so important. We should be doing that anyway.

Frankly, unless public transportation is made free at the point of use, I'm very leery of ideologically-motivated measures to dissuade emission-free private vehicle usage. "Small world" hippies can fuck right off.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 23, 2020)

NoXion said:


> It will solve the problem if combined with a push to decarbonise the energy grid. That's part of the reason why shifting from fossil fuels to fission and renewables is so important. We should be doing that anyway.



Partially true - as I said in the post after teuchter's, non-exhaust emissions are as much of a problem. Brake pads particularly because unlike from tyres they're airborne and contain chemicals like copper. At least they don't contain asbestos though, which they used to.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 23, 2020)

NoXion said:


> It will solve the problem if combined with a push to decarbonise the energy grid.


No it won't - the reasons have already been mentioned.



NoXion said:


> Frankly, unless public transportation is made free at the point of use, I'm very leery of ideologically-motivated measures to dissuade emission-free private vehicle usage. "Small world" hippies can fuck right off.


What kind of ideology are you worried about?
Private vehicle usage should be dissuaded wherever there is affordable and available public transport.

We're going off topic here though.


----------



## NoXion (Apr 23, 2020)

teuchter said:


> No it won't - the reasons have already been mentioned.



If you're going to include stuff like what comes off the brake pads, then no technology in the entire history of human engineering can ever be called "emission-free".


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 23, 2020)

yield said:


> A Planetary Pandemic
> NLR 122, Mar Apr 2020 (Editors)


I liked that and it makes good points, but hopefully there is one thing that may come from this that didn't - and should have - come from 2008, and that is some critical thought about indebtedness. A whole world cannot be indebted - debts are owed _to_ _somebody_. Not in some magical way to the past, nor to the future - to an identifiable somebody in the here and now. One person's debt can only exist on the balance sheet as another's credit. (A partial exception to this is quantitative easing - central bank writing an iou to itself, but in this case, it can still choose whether or not it needs to destroy the money in the future.)

How we manage that debt-credit relationship is indeed going to be key, but there will be way more freedom of action than many will suggest (including simply cancelling the debts). We've already seen Cunt Osborne calling for more austerity, but that is in no way mandated by this crisis any more than it was mandated by the 2008 credit crunch. There can be a tendency here to confuse the symbol with the thing that it represents - ultimately money is merely a representation of a set of promises. You choose to keep or to break those promises.

One difference between 2008 and now is perhaps that there is nobody to blame for any debt crisis resulting from this. No reckless Greeks to be disciplined. I sincerely hope the narrative that 'the world is now in debt' does not take hold. No, we will just have lost the value of a few months' worth of work. Can make that up easily in a year or so.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 23, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> The French are exploring whether the use of nicotine patches may protect against the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Protects you for the next couple of mutagenic cycles/global pandemics but then SARS-CoV-5 kills you in your 60s due to greatly impaired lung function?


----------



## Supine (Apr 23, 2020)

2hats said:


> Protects you for the next couple of mutagenic cycles/global pandemics but then SARS-CoV-5 kills you in your 60s due to greatly impaired lung function?



It's the optimism I like about urban75


----------



## 2hats (Apr 23, 2020)

Supine said:


> It's the optimism I like about urban75


I like to think ahead.


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 23, 2020)

2hats said:


> Protects you for the next couple of mutagenic cycles/global pandemics but then SARS-CoV-5 kills you in your 60s due to greatly impaired lung function?



I think "protects you from pandemics" is going to join the legendary "auntie who was told by a doctor that she had been smoking for so long it would be dangerous to quit" in people's top 5 reasons for not quitting smoking.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 23, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I think "protects you from pandemics" is going to join the legendary "auntie who was told by a doctor that she had been smoking for so long it would be dangerous to quit" in people's top 5 reasons for not quitting smoking.



Cigarettes used to be prescribed by doctors as an expectorant, sir


----------



## hipipol (Apr 23, 2020)

Have you seen this? 
Well yes, everyone had... removed cos I'm an idiot


----------



## teuchter (Apr 23, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> One difference between 2008 and now is perhaps that there is nobody to blame for any debt crisis resulting from this. No reckless Greeks to be disciplined. I sincerely hope the narrative that 'the world is now in debt' does not take hold. No, we will just have lost the value of a few months' worth of work. Can make that up easily in a year or so.



I wonder how much 'work value' we will actually have lost. Obviously some people are continuing to work through this anyway. But also, there will be lots of work that hasn't been done, but doesn't actually need to be replaced. For example if the entire tourism industry shuts down, then the consequence is that no-one really goes on holiday, and everyone who would have been cleaning hotels and driving buses isn't doing that this summer. But it doesn't mean that all that work has to be caught up on next year (unlike, for example the enormous backlogs there are going to be in hospitals). How much of our economy is stuff that needs to be done, vs stuff that is nice to do, but if we don't do it, it doesn't actually need to be done in the future?


----------



## teuchter (Apr 23, 2020)

NoXion said:


> If you're going to include stuff like what comes off the brake pads, then no technology in the entire history of human engineering can ever be called "emission-free".


True. So what?


----------



## Roadkill (Apr 23, 2020)

Supine said:


> Don't give us smokers facts. If we followed those we wouldn't be smokers



Sadly true.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 23, 2020)

teuchter said:


> I wonder how much 'work value' we will actually have lost. Obviously some people are continuing to work through this anyway. But also, there will be lots of work that hasn't been done, but doesn't actually need to be replaced. For example if the entire tourism industry shuts down, then the consequence is that no-one really goes on holiday, and everyone who would have been cleaning hotels and driving buses isn't doing that this summer. But it doesn't mean that all that work has to be caught up on next year (unlike, for example the enormous backlogs there are going to be in hospitals). How much of our economy is stuff that needs to be done, vs stuff that is nice to do, but if we don't do it, it doesn't actually need to be done in the future?


Yeah, and that. Our rather dull existences currently are part-payment already for the lost work. Just emphasises the idiocy of the idea that we will have to be paying for this for a decade to come. We might well be made to pay for a decade, but it won't be because of this temporary slow-down, and we need to call out that lie whenever we see it.


----------



## lefteri (Apr 23, 2020)

kabbes said:


> No, the act of smoking will place additional stress on the lungs that will act to make things worse.  If there is a positive effect, it will have to be the nicotine.
> 
> That’s backed up in theory too, because it’s known that nicotine has an effect on acetylcholine receptors.  It therefore makes sense that it support impact this condition.  The question has always been whether the effect is enough to actually have a meaningful impact.
> 
> Smoking itself directly has a 50% fatality rate, even leaving aside secondary impacts, by the way.  So smoking to prevent a disease with a 1% fatality rate if you actually catch it would be the height of lunacy.



given the fact that propylene glycol in aerosol form has a mild anti-viral effect then vaping must be the answer!


----------



## NoXion (Apr 23, 2020)

teuchter said:


> True. So what?



It's the mark of a pedantic dickhole to equivocate the relatively minor effects of certain types of byproduct - brake pads, for fuck's sake - with those that are by far the overwhelming contributors to global atmospheric damage and human mortality, i.e. CO2 and nitrous oxide, and then use that to attack the colloquial usage of "emission-free",  as if any of us here are writing a scientific paper where that level of definitional precision is warranted.

Electrification of the entire transport network will be a great good, as will phasing out the combustion of fossil fuels. Quibbling over fucking brake pads is petty hair-splitting.

Another consideration that pedantic pissants miss out on is the role of rhetoric and framing. "Emission-free" as I have seen the term used is shorthand for getting rid of the smokestacks and exhausts, most people in their every day lives don't walk around with a dictionary lodged in their fucking ear, ready to pounce on someone else for daring to lack their idea of linguistic precision.


----------



## Supine (Apr 23, 2020)

((((Poor brake pads))))


----------



## teuchter (Apr 23, 2020)

NoXion said:


> It's the mark of a pedantic dickhole to equivocate the relatively minor effects of certain types of byproduct - brake pads, for fuck's sake - with those that are by far the overwhelming contributors to global atmospheric damage and human mortality, i.e. CO2 and nitrous oxide, and then use that to attack the colloquial usage of "emission-free",  as if any of us here are writing a scientific paper where that level of definitional precision is warranted.
> 
> Electrification of the entire transport network will be a great good, as will phasing out the combustion of fossil fuels. Quibbling over fucking brake pads is petty hair-splitting.
> 
> Another consideration that pedantic pissants miss out on is the role of rhetoric and framing. "Emission-free" as I have seen the term used is shorthand for getting rid of the smokestacks and exhausts, most people in their every day lives don't walk around with a dictionary lodged in their fucking ear, ready to pounce on someone else for daring to lack their idea of linguistic precision.


We were talking about air pollution specifically, and the difference the inhabitants of various cities have noticed as the result of a massive reduction in motor transport. It was suggested that this was a preview of the electric (or decarbonised or whatever) future. I am trying to make the point that changing the energy source does not fix the air pollution problem. It helps but it does not fix it, because particles from brakes, tyre and road wear, and dust recirculated by the constant motion of heavy traffic are significant contributors to the air pollution problem. There is some dispute about exactly how much they contribute but the effects are not, as you say, "relatively minor". If you want to educate yourself on the subject you can read this report.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 23, 2020)

One concerning aspect of the outbreak in Harbin is that:



> " _This spread must be taken very seriously_ , warned Chinese virologist Yang Zhanqiu of the Center for Epidemic Control and Prevention, _because it reveals new characteristics of the virus that would make it even more difficult to detect_ ."



from









						En Chine, nouvelle éruption du coronavirus à Harbin
					

Les onze millions d’habitants de la ville chinoise de Harbin, capitale de la province du Heilongjiang, à la frontière russe, ont été isolés mercredi 22 avril en raison d’une nouvelle vague de pandémie du coronavirus provenant de Chinois rentrés de Russie. Un virologue chinois parle d’une...




					www.la-croix.com


----------



## kabbes (Apr 23, 2020)

lefteri said:


> given the fact that propylene glycol in aerosol form has a mild anti-viral effect then vaping must be the answer!


Sadly, vaping is already being shown to cause its own unique impairment to the lung’s immune system.  Vaping risks undoing any benefit the nicotine adds, in other words.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 23, 2020)

FFS, can people please stay on topic, and take the shit elsewhere?


----------



## lefteri (Apr 23, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> FFS, can people please stay on topic, and take the shit elsewhere?


sorry, what is off-topic?


----------



## lefteri (Apr 23, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Sadly, vaping is already being shown to cause its own unique impairment to the lung’s immune system.



Do you have a source for this? it's the first I've heard and I would really like to know more


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 23, 2020)

lefteri said:


> sorry, what is off-topic?



All the shit about electric cars, how could you have missed it?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 23, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> All the shit about electric cars, how could you have missed it?


I didn't think it was off-topic, fwiw. Cleaner air is a result of lockdown, so people were discussing to what extent  that might be a sign of how things would be with electric cars. Seemed fair enough to me.


----------



## lefteri (Apr 23, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> All the shit about electric cars, how could you have missed it?



wasn't directly above your post and hadn't kept up with the thread


----------



## weltweit (Apr 23, 2020)

Which part of the world should we be looking at now? where can we learn lessons?

Asia is way in front of us and coming out of lockdowns or never having been in them in the case of South Korea. Lots to learn from Asia but we have had plenty of articles on this.

Europe is still a mess, Germany are tentatively emerging from lockdown while Sweden hasn't had one, Spain and Italy seem perhaps past peak deaths and France? In terms of deaths, Germany has avoided mass deaths compared to Spain and Italy and UK looks set to perhaps soon have the greatest number of deaths in Europe.

Not so much news from Eastern Europe.

North America is facing protests somewhat cheer-led by Trump, and still has relatively high levels of deaths. NY is now past the peak and other locations still have problems, Chicago, New Orleans etc.

South and Central America, don't often see so much about this region in the English speaking media. We had some articles.

Africa's story seems to lag Europe and Asia, but there are infections and growing concerns. South Africa deployed the Army to police their lockdown.

Middle East?

Australia and New Zealand have more happy stories with NZ moving to eliminate the virus on top of a strong lockdown and a ban on incoming travel.


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> North America is facing protests somewhat cheer-led my Trump, and still has relatively high levels of deaths. NY is now past the peak and other locations still have problems, Chicago, New Orleans etc.
> ...



No, the United States are facing the protests.
Up here,in Canada, we are all doing our stay-home thing.  And, may I add, we are doing a really good job of it.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 23, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> No, the United States are facing the protests.
> Up here,in Canada, we are all doing our stay-home thing.  And, may I add, we are doing a really good job of it.


My mistake, apologies. Also don't know much about Mexico .. Which part of the world are you currently interested in spring-peeper?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Which part of the world should we be looking at now? where can we learn lessons?
> 
> Asia is way in front of us and coming out of lockdowns or never having been in them in the case of South Korea. Lots to learn from Asia but we have had plenty of articles on this.
> 
> ...


Iran is worth noting. One of the first places to be hit, and if its official figures are to be believed, doing much better than most. 

Reopening major shopping centres this week. We'll see how that goes. 

NPR Choice page

Volunteers are disinfecting public spaces every day in Tehran.

Iran battles COVID-19: Thousands of volunteers disinfect cities


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> My mistake, apologies. Also don't know much about Mexico .. Which part of the world are you currently interested in spring-peeper?



Actually, I'm concerned about the train wreck happening to the South of me.
I've very concerned about the US-Canada border being opened.  We have at least three weeks before that happens.

Just when I think that they have reached the peak of stupidity, I get up in the morning to read that we have reached higher....

Other than that, I worry about you Brits and the rest of Europe.


----------



## elbows (Apr 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Which part of the world should we be looking at now? where can we learn lessons?



I dont know, I am tempted to try and take as much of the next week off from the subject as possible, make the most of the going being rather slow. And then I should really try to catch up with certain aspects of the science, I have no idea at all how much I have missed on that front.

There might be something to be learnt from the next week, but I have no clue what, so hopefully it will rise up and be noticed if there is.


----------



## zahir (Apr 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Middle East?




Some updates from Brian Whitaker:








						Diary of the Covid-19 pandemic in the Middle East
					

Regional updates  13 November 2021 Covid-19 update: new infections in Middle East continue to fall Covid-19 infections recorded in the Middle East and North Africa have seen a further drop during the past week, with a daily average of 14,985 new cases among the 20 countries monitored.   23...




					al-bab.com


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 23, 2020)

Saskatchewan has released its 5 phase reopening.


Confirmed
326Recovered
261Deaths
4




> *Phase One
> 
> May 4:* Dentists, optometrists, physical and occupational therapists, and chiropractors to be allowed to resume services.
> 
> ...


----------



## weltweit (Apr 23, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Iran is worth noting. One of the first places to be hit, and if its official figures are to be believed, doing much better than most.
> 
> Reopening major shopping centres this week. We'll see how that goes.
> 
> ...


How much do you think littlebabyjesus we should trust the numbers coming out of Iran? I wonder if the numbers might be a lie but the trends perhaps be based on something more factual?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> How much do you think littlebabyjesus we should trust the numbers coming out of Iran? I wonder if the numbers might be a lie but the trends perhaps be based on something more factual?


I don't know. I don't have a particular reason to doubt them aside from the fact that they are harder to verify than those of many other places. And I have read of doubts coming from within Iran itself. But then there are doubts about the UK's figures from within the UK. But I agree that the shape and trends are likely to reflect the truth, or else they would not be opening up again.


----------



## Doodler (Apr 24, 2020)

We don't need to worry about Covid-19 mutating, says this upbeat article in 'Nature'.

Hmm. IIt's not been in humans for very long at all and there are many more of us out there still to infect. There's plenty of opportunity for it to change. Leaving aside lethality, is it correct to assume that Covid-19 will likely become more efficient at infecting people?


----------



## MrCurry (Apr 24, 2020)

Trump goes off script again...









						Coronavirus: Outcry after Trump suggests injecting disinfectant as treatment
					

Doctors call the president's latest remarks about coronavirus treatment "dangerous" and "ridiculous".



					www.bbc.com
				




“We should look at whether injecting disinfectant can do a powerful number on the lungs”...

What a world class idiot!


----------



## two sheds (Apr 24, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Trump goes off script again...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



He's right though, I'm sure it _would _do a powerful number on the lungs. 

I presume he's suggesting it gets tried on other people rather than himself though.


----------



## Sprocket. (Apr 24, 2020)

I have no doubt there will be a rise in the number of cases of bleach injections today.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 24, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> Actually, I'm concerned about the train wreck happening to the South of me.
> I've very concerned about the US-Canada border being opened.  We have at least three weeks before that happens.
> ..


Is it planned to open the border come what may? or are there criteria that must be met?


----------



## MrCurry (Apr 24, 2020)

two sheds said:


> He's right though, I'm sure it _would _do a powerful number on the lungs.
> 
> I presume he's suggesting it gets tried on other people rather than himself though.



I wonder if his public service mandate might be extended into becoming no. 1 test subject for some of the wacky theories he postulates. I don’t think they’d have trouble finding volunteers to carry out the injection.


----------



## maomao (Apr 24, 2020)

Sprocket. said:


> I have no doubt there will be a rise in the number of cases of bleach injections today.


It already happens when intravenous drug users clean with bleach and don't rinse. Even trace amounts can make people seriously ill when injected directly. If anyone's stupid enough to fill a syringe they'd probably die.


----------



## phillm (Apr 24, 2020)

If this is a glimpse of what post-lockdown could look like here then it's fairly dystopian landscape. 









						Inside the Dystopian, Post-Lockdown World of Wuhan
					

The first epicenter is coming back to life, but not as anyone knew it.




					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## Sprocket. (Apr 24, 2020)

maomao said:


> It already happens when intravenous drug users clean with bleach and don't rinse. Even trace amounts can make people seriously ill when injected directly. If anyone's stupid enough to fill a syringe they'd probably die.


Yes, horrendous deaths too. But thanks to the intellectual brilliance of Trump, these people won’t die from Covid-19.


----------



## Cid (Apr 24, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I don't know. I don't have a particular reason to doubt them aside from the fact that they are harder to verify than those of many other places. And I have read of doubts coming from within Iran itself. But then there are doubts about the UK's figures from within the UK. But I agree that the shape and trends are likely to reflect the truth, or else they would not be opening up again.



There are many, many reasons to doubt anything coming from the Iranian organs of state.


----------



## Petcha (Apr 24, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> Trump goes off script again...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## two sheds (Apr 24, 2020)

Petcha said:


>




Nice quote there: "It was at this moment she realized she had sold her soul.."


----------



## Petcha (Apr 24, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Nice quote there: "It was at this moment she realized she had sold her soul.."
> View attachment 208534



I'm sure we've all been there. I've sat in meetings before in astonishment at what my boss is promising to a client. Before he fucks off to the pub and tells us to get on with it.


----------



## MrCurry (Apr 24, 2020)

Petcha said:


> I'm sure we've all been there. I've sat in meetings before in astonishment at what my boss is promising to a client. Before he fucks off to the pub and tells us to get on with it.



God yes! And that moment you realise the level of promotion within a big company is inversely proportional to the level of competence! The less they know, the more often they say yes to stupid requests and the further they advance.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 24, 2020)

Peter Principle, sir


----------



## Petcha (Apr 24, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> God yes! And that moment you realise the level of promotion within a big company is inversely proportional to the level of competence! The less they know, the more often they say yes to stupid requests and the further they advance.



Yes. That probably explains why I'm redundant and that fuckwad is probably sitting in his garden 'working from home' on full salary. Sorry, slight derail. 

Trump's probably off to the golf course though while his 'medical doctors' explore injecting cleaning fluid into immigrants.


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 24, 2020)

Sprocket. said:


> Yes, horrendous deaths too. But thanks to the intellectual brilliance of Trump, these people won’t die from Covid-19.




He is going to be responsible for manslaughter if anyone dies from injecting or injesting detergents to combat covid19. 
Sad to say there will be a lot of Darwin Awards based on his idiocy


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 24, 2020)

Oops, wrong thread.


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 24, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Bleach can not only kill every virus known to science, drinking or injecting it eliminates the risk of getting cancer and instantly stops the aging process, Trump should be encouraged to start using this wonder drug.



Also singlehandedly increases the average IQ of the population.


----------



## hegley (Apr 24, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Nice quote there: "It was at this moment she realized she had sold her soul.."
> View attachment 208534


Her soul had already been bought - she praised him last month for being attentive to scientific literature   :
Dr Deborah Birx Praises Trump Being So ‘Attentive To Scientific Literature’


----------



## Supine (Apr 24, 2020)

Surely we’ve now reached peak Trump idiocy. He can’t top this can he?


----------



## MrCurry (Apr 24, 2020)

Supine said:


> Surely we’ve now reached peak Trump idiocy. He can’t top this can he?



It’s slightly upsetting to think that, even if he doesn’t benefit from presidential immunity from prosecution for whatever corruption / negligence or other criminal behaviour during this presidency which later emerges after he’s left office, he will always have available to him “mental incompetence” as a defence strategy.  

After all, what defence lawyer would not be able to draw on a wide selection of clips of Trump talking nonsense and prove beyond doubt that he was obviously nutty as a fruitcake and it was the fault of the rest of us, if we listened to or acted on a single word he said?  On that basis, he has the perfect incentive to be as corrupt and mendacious as he likes, with no come back if his misdeeds are later discovered.


----------



## NoXion (Apr 24, 2020)

MrCurry said:


> It’s slightly upsetting to think that, even if he doesn’t benefit from presidential immunity from prosecution for whatever corruption / negligence or other criminal behaviour during this presidency which later emerges after he’s left office, he will always have available to him “mental incompetence” as a defence strategy.
> 
> After all, what defence lawyer would not be able to draw on a wide selection of clips of Trump talking nonsense and prove beyond doubt that he was obviously nutty as a fruitcake and it was the fault of the rest of us, if we listened to or acted on a single word he said?  On that basis, he has the perfect incentive to be as corrupt and mendacious as he likes, with no come back if his misdeeds are later discovered.



Being incompetent is not the same thing as being inculpable. This is the same guy who ham-fistedly tried to cover up some of his wrongdoings, remember. That's the kind of thing done by bumbling criminals, not the innocently incompetent.

Also, if Trump gets off with that defence, that would basically constitute an official recognition that the US political system is so fucking broken, that it cannot prevent a legally incompetent buffoon from attaining the highest office. I'm not so sure that any US judge would be willing to make that admission, although I admit that I cannot rule out that possibility.


----------



## Dogsauce (Apr 24, 2020)

Isn’t this just him saying something daft to draw attention from other criticism (sacked scientist, rampant cronyism or whatever)? He always pulls shit like this when the heat is rising. You’ve been played, he’s good at this.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Apr 24, 2020)

Dogsauce said:


> Isn’t this just him saying something daft to draw attention from other criticism (sacked scientist, rampant cronyism or whatever)?







__





						Dead cat strategy - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## weltweit (Apr 24, 2020)

Coronavirus statistics: Latest numbers on COVID-19 cases and deaths 
from 24/04/2020 Coronavirus: Latest data on new COVID-19 infections and deaths

A good summary page esp for Euro countries.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 24, 2020)

Coronavirus Vaccine News 

First patients injected in UK vaccine trial


> The first human trial in Europe of a coronavirus vaccine has begun in Oxford.
> 
> Two volunteers were injected, the first of more than 800 people recruited for the study.





> Half will receive the Covid-19 vaccine, and half a control vaccine which protects against meningitis but not coronavirus.


from 23/04/2020 First patients injected in UK Covid vaccine trial

and 

The hunt for a coronavirus vaccine – a perilous and uncertain path


> The vaccine hunters are trying to outwit an invisible enemy so small that a million viral particles could fit inside a human cell, but whose biological ingenuity has brought everyday life to a standstill.
> ..
> First into clinical trials, just eight weeks after the genetic sequence for Covid-19 was published in January, was the US biotech company Moderna, with its RNA vaccine.





> ..
> Also testing their candidates in human trials are the Chinese vaccine company CanSino Biologics, and a team at Oxford University led by Prof Sarah Gilbert.
> 
> Both are using harmless viruses that have been disabled so that they don’t replicate once they get inside cells. These delivery vehicles are known as “non-replicating viral vectors”.





> These teams had already tried and tested the approach for other diseases, such as Ebola, and had flasks of their vectors sitting in freezers, ready to go.
> 
> A third approach is that of the US biotech company Inovio, a firm that has existed for four decades without developing an approved product, but whose stock soared after it started its trial earlier this month.


from 24/04/2020 The hunt for a coronavirus vaccine – a perilous and uncertain path


----------



## weltweit (Apr 24, 2020)

If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?


> .. researchers are already warning that it might not be physically possible to make enough vaccine for everyone, and that rich countries might hoard supplies.
> 
> The production facilities needed will depend on which kind of vaccine turns out to work best. Some researchers say governments and private funders should give vaccine manufacturers money to ramp up their production capacity in advance, even if these facilities are never used.





> ..
> Pick a winner?
> One big challenge in creating a lot of vaccine quickly is scaling up manufacturing, because the infrastructure needed will differ depending on the vaccine type.


from 09/04/2020 If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?


----------



## DaveCinzano (Apr 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> If a coronavirus vaccine arrives, can the world make enough?



I've seen _Contagion_, I know how this is going to play out


----------



## Throbbing Angel (Apr 25, 2020)

Coronavirus detected on particles of air pollution
					

Exclusive: Scientists examine whether this route may enable infections at longer distances




					www.theguardian.com
				




*Coronavirus detected on particles of air pollution*
_*Exclusive: Scientists examine whether this route enables infections at longer distances*

Coronavirus has been detected on particles of air pollution by scientists investigating whether this could enable it to be carried over longer distances and increase the number of people infected.

The work is preliminary and it is not yet known if the virus remains viable on pollution particles and in sufficient quantity to cause disease.

The Italian scientists used standard techniques to collect outdoor air pollution samples at one urban and one industrial site in Bergamo province and identified a gene highly specific to Covid-19 in multiple samples. The detection was confirmed by blind testing at an independent laboratory._


----------



## weltweit (Apr 25, 2020)

First trial for potential Covid-19 drug shows it has no effect


> WHO draft put online states remdesivir does not benefit severe coronavirus patients
> ..
> Remdesivir, a drug thought to be one of the best prospects for treating Covid-19, failed to have any effect in the first full trial, it has been revealed.





> The drug is in short supply globally because of the excitement it has generated. It is one of the drugs Donald Trump claimed was “promising”.
> 
> In a “gold standard” trial of 237 patients, some of whom received remdesivir while others did not, the drug did not work. The trial was also stopped early because of side-effects.


from 23/04/2020 First trial for potential Covid-19 drug shows it has no effect


----------



## weltweit (Apr 25, 2020)

When will we have a drug to treat it?


> More than 150 different drugs are being researched around the world. Most are existing drugs that are being trialled against the virus.
> 
> The World Health Organization (WHO) has launched the Solidarity trial aimed at assessing the most promising treatments
> The UK says its Recovery trial is the the world's biggest, with more than 5,000 patients already taking part
> And multiple research centres around the world are attempting to use survivors' blood as a treatment


from 22/04/2020 What is the most promising coronavirus drug?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 25, 2020)

Interview with Bill Gates 
from 17/04/2020 Subscribe to read | Financial Times


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 25, 2020)

Jeez, Brazil looks fucked


----------



## weltweit (Apr 25, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Jeez, Brazil looks fucked


Hi frogwoman do you have any links for Brazil? just looking and am mainly seeing older stories, Bolsonaro being a dick for example.


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hi frogwoman do you have any links for Brazil? just looking and am mainly seeing older stories, Bolsonaro being a dick for example.











						Rio's favelas count the cost as deadly spread of Covid-19 hits city's poor
					

The coronavirus was probably brought to Brazil by rich returning holidaymakers but it is threatening to explode in marginal communities




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 25, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Jeez, Brazil looks fucked



Yep, not looking good.   



> Cases of the new coronavirus are overwhelming hospitals, morgues and cemeteries across Brazil as Latin America’s largest nation veers closer to becoming one of the world’s pandemic hot spots.
> 
> Medical officials in Rio de Janeiro and at least four other major cities have warned that their hospital systems are on the verge of collapse, or already too overwhelmed to take any more patients.











						Coronavirus: Brazil emerging as world hot spot for virus - National | Globalnews.ca
					

Medical officials in Rio de Janeiro and at least four other major cities have warned that their hospital systems are on the verge of collapse, or already too overwhelmed to take any more patients.




					globalnews.ca
				




And...



> Meanwhile, President Jair Bolsonaro has shown no sign of wavering from his insistence that COVID-19 is a relatively minor disease and that broad social-distancing measures are not needed to stop it. He has said only Brazilians at high risk should be isolated.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 25, 2020)

Thread on Singapore where Covid-19 is spiralling out of control, predictably in the low-paid workers domitories, those who keep the economy afloat.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 25, 2020)

Immunity passports frowned on by WHO because of no evidence of lasting immunity.

Wouldn't be worth the paper it was written on.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Immunity passports frowned on by WHO because of no evidence of lasting immunity.
> 
> Wouldn't be worth the paper it was written on.




Nevertheless I can quite imagine a world where’s you have to have some kind of covid vaccine document or be reguster d somewhere in order to buy a ticket to fly, go to a gig, book a table, etc.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Nevertheless I can quite imagine a world where’s you have to have some kind of covid vaccine document or be reguster d somewhere in order to buy a ticket to fly, go to a gig, book a table, etc.


I can imagine needing a green QR code on your smartphone over which one would have little control, but I am not sure I like the idea.


----------



## NoXion (Apr 25, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Nevertheless I can quite imagine a world where’s you have to have some kind of covid vaccine document or be reguster d somewhere in order to buy a ticket to fly, go to a gig, book a table, etc.



I can imagine such a world falling apart very quickly when it turns that no, viruses don't give a shit whether or not you're carrying a particular piece of paper or registered on a list somewhere. Because without acquiring any natural immunity that's all such things would be.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 25, 2020)

NoXion said:


> I can imagine such a world falling apart very quickly when it turns that no, viruses don't give a shit whether or not you're carrying a particular piece of paper or registered on a list somewhere. Because without acquiring any natural immunity that's all such things would be.


My understanding is that long term immunity after recovery isn't proven, it might be the case, perhaps not for ever, but perhaps for a period, but anyhow that also isn't proven.

Nations are going to want some evidence that incoming travellers are not bringing coronavirus with them into their countries as an unwelcome present. Perhaps if an ultra rapid antigen test were developed travel might be enabled. You don't have an immunity card or a QR code, instead you take a test before you go on the aircraft and it's the result of that test that permits you entry into the aircraft and into the country when the flight lands? 

There is going to have to be some solution or the travel industry and airlines are going to close for good.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 25, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Thread on Singapore where Covid-19 is spiralling out of control, predictably in the low-paid workers domitories, those who keep the economy afloat.



This article is mainly on the sorry state migrant workers find themselves in in Singapore. 
I just cropped this bit out. 


> In the first three months of the coronavirus pandemic, Singapore was praised for its response and apparent ability to suppress infections without resorting to extreme measures.
> Then, in April, the number of cases exploded. Since March 17, Singapore's total cases grew from 266 to 12,075, according to data from Johns Hopkins University


from 25/04/2020 https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/24/asia/singapore-coronavirus-foreign-workers-intl-hnk/index.html

From a government website: 


> As of 25 April 2020, 12pm, the Ministry of Health (MOH) has confirmed 618 new cases of COVID-19 infection in Singapore.
> ..
> Of the new cases, 81% are linked to known clusters, while the rest are pending contact tracing.
> 
> 46 more cases of COVID-19 infection have been discharged from hospitals or community isolation facilities. To date, 1,002 have fully recovered from the infection and have been discharged from hospitals or community isolation facilities.


from 25/04/2020 COVID-19: Cases in Singapore

I don't see a move from testing tracing and isolating as a policy with some local lockdowns.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 25, 2020)

Global fatalities top 200,000

with 2,800,000 confirmed infections


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 26, 2020)

So, it's not just idiots in the US protesting about the lockdown, yesterday German police arrested more than 100 people out of around a 1000 protesting in Berlin, and apparently this was the fourth week of such demonstrations.

Hardly surprising that the protesters included well-known far-right nut-jobs and conspiracy theorists.   









						German conspiracists protest against coronavirus lockdown | DW | 25.04.2020
					

People in Berlin and Stuttgart took to the streets to protest against a loss of freedoms amid the coronavirus pandemic. Despite the demonstrations, most Germans back restrictions aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19.




					www.dw.com


----------



## Indeliblelink (Apr 26, 2020)

Good long read piece from The Atlantic about treating cytokine storm responses.








						Why Some People Get Sicker Than Others
					

COVID-19 is proving to be a disease of the immune system. This could, in theory, be controlled.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 26, 2020)

Using survivors blood to treat coronavirus

Blood from recovered coronavirus victims helps patient come off ventilator in just two days


> In trial, 10 severely-ill patients made recoveries after receiving antibodies from people who had successfully fought the Covid-19 virus
> ..
> The first trials looking at whether antibodies of people who have successfully fought the virus can help others do the same found that all 10 severely ill patients made a speedy recovery.
> 
> The treatment, known as convalescent plasma (CP) therapy, was used during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic before vaccines or antivirals were available.


from 07/04/2020 Blood from recovered coronavirus victims helps patient come off ventilator in just two days


Plasma from coronavirus survivors found to help severely ill patients


> Two teams of medics working at separate hospitals in China gave antibody-rich plasma to 15 severely ill patients and recorded striking improvements in many of them.
> ..
> Tappin said the cases reported from Wuhan were important because they suggested that giving plasma to severely ill patients appeared to be safe. “The outcomes are also encouraging for these patients,” he said. But he added that to be sure plasma improved on the natural course of the disease, and that it was safe in larger groups of patients, formal trials had to take place.


from 07/04/2020 Plasma from coronavirus survivors found to help severely ill patients


UK to trial coronavirus treatments using blood from survivors


> Health officials have prioritised two clinical trials that will be supplied with blood from recovered Covid-19 patients in the hope that transfusions can help save the lives of people hospitalised with the infection.
> ..
> The Recovery trial will assess whether the plasma helps patients to recover before they are admitted to intensive care, while the Remap-Cap trial will investigate whether similar transfusions help to save patients who are already in high-dependency or intensive care units.


from 20/04/2020 UK to trial coronavirus treatments using blood from survivors

NHS appeals for blood plasma from survivors for trial to help new COVID-19 patients


> It wants to use this in clinical trials in its fight against the pandemic, but says donors must have tested positive for the illness, either at home or in hospital, and should now be three to four weeks into their recovery - ideally 29 days.
> ..
> Plasma donation is not the same as blood donation.





> The process takes around 45 minutes because it separates plasma from the blood as you donate, in a process called apheresis.


from 20/04/2020 Coronavirus: NHS appeals for blood plasma from survivors for trial to help new COVID-19 patients


----------



## weltweit (Apr 26, 2020)

UK approves clinical trial of treatment that uses plasma from recovered patients


> Professor Jonathan Van Tam, deputy chief medical officer, said: “The UK is leading the world’s largest trials to find a treatment for Covid-19, with over 7,000 people so far involved testing a range of medicines; we hope to add convalescent plasma to this list shortly.
> ..
> Explaining the 45-minute plasma collection process, the Department of Health said blood is taken from one arm and circulated through a machine that separates out the plasma, and the blood is then returned to the donor.


from 25/04/2020 UK approves clinical trial of plasma treatment for coronavirus patients


----------



## quimcunx (Apr 26, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> So, it's not just idiots in the US protesting about the lockdown, yesterday German police arrested more than 100 people out of around a 1000 protesting in Berlin, and apparently this was the fourth week of such demonstrations.
> 
> Hardly surprising that the protesters included well-known far-right nut-jobs and conspiracy theorists.
> 
> ...



Naturapathy is more popular and accepted in Germany. Maybe there is a tie in.


----------



## treelover (Apr 26, 2020)

BBC News saying it was organised by 'the left'


----------



## treelover (Apr 26, 2020)

Coronavirus: Spain's children run free from lockdown - but not all
					

After six weeks indoors, under-14s are being let out of doors, but how damaging was the lockdown?



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Great to see spanish kids getting out, (not all) even for an hour, there last year and they seemed pretty free range.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 26, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> This article in a US publication has a few snaps and clips showing the good results of humans being off the streets: the gorgeous sky over LA, a peacock wandering about in Dubai, wild boar in Barcelona... and "Londoners also spotted a wild fox..."
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## editor (Apr 26, 2020)

'Life' returns to Wuhan:






















						Inside the Dystopian, Post-Lockdown World of Wuhan
					

The first epicenter is coming back to life, but not as anyone knew it.




					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 26, 2020)

Spanish Children were allowed out today for the first time since their lockdown. 

Spain is gradually easing their lockdown as cases fall.


----------



## editor (Apr 26, 2020)

Powerful stuff from a nurse: 



> Anyone protesting should forfeit their rights to receive any medical care. NONE. You are putting the lives of anyone you come into contact with because of your boredom and selfishness. You are putting every single healthcare worker’s life not only at an increased risk, but your disrespect for humankind because of your ignorance and stupidity is beyond appalling. *You* are a *disgrace*.











						Running out of Outlets
					

Wake up. Eat breakfast. Put my mask on and walk to work in the brisk, early morning sunlight of New Jersey. My shift starts at 07:00. As I walk into the hospital, like every day, I am stopped for a…




					kristenfmartins.wordpress.com


----------



## teuchter (Apr 27, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> This article in a US publication has a few snaps and clips showing the good results of humans being off the streets: the gorgeous sky over LA, a peacock wandering about in Dubai, wild boar in Barcelona... and "Londoners also spotted a wild fox..."
> 
> 
> 
> ...




That photo of a fox on a London street... Foxes on the streets of London. Who would have thought we'd see the day. Mind blowing.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 27, 2020)

I know it's easy to see the photos of everyone in hazmat suits in China and feel chilled, and when I first got here, I felt scared too, but they are just people in really good PPE. You expect people in hazmat suits to be cold, remote agents of something frightening, but they're actually just normal people who are just as kind and cordial as they were before they had to wear the PPE. 

Those people in that photo who are standing in the doorway, they work at a bank. They need to come into contact with lots of people. I'm glad they're protected. I've been that guy in the photo sitting in the chair outside being swabbed for a covid test. It was over in seconds. They were kind to me. I'm glad that I know I haven't brought the virus into my community. I'm glad they're checking. The test was free. 

Life after lockdown doesn't look the same as it did before.


----------



## scifisam (Apr 27, 2020)

teuchter said:


> That photo of a fox on a London street... Foxes on the streets of London. Who would have thought we'd see the day. Mind blowing.



I don't like those kinds of articles. There are genuine measures that say that pollution has decreased, temporarily, but most of the "animals are moving into the cities" stuff is about animals that already lived in cities. It will make people complacent if they think that all we have to do is curtail some activities for a few weeks and suddenly cities are wild free roaming zoos.


----------



## JimW (Apr 27, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I know it's easy to see the photos of everyone in hazmat suits in China and feel chilled, and when I first got here, I felt scared too, but they are just people in really good PPE. You expect people in hazmat suits to be cold, remote agents of something frightening, but they're actually just normal people who are just as kind and cordial as they were before they had to wear the PPE.


Well said. I had to go to the tax office in town last week and they had stringent checks on everyone in and out. The QR code that brings up your personal health confirmation APP wasn't set up to work with the foreign passport holder version so friendly staff went out of their way to help me find another way in.
Seen some stuff about petty abuses by quarantine enforcers in some places (e.g. that family playing mah jong in their own home getting raided) but my personal experience has been of a service attitude designed to protect.
Lot less "dystopian" than a free market lottery where the poor can crawl off and die in a corner and who cares if more black people die. And they wonder why foreign press legitimate comment on China's many ills gets short shrift.


----------



## Mation (Apr 27, 2020)

JimW said:


> Well said. I had to go to the tax office in town last week and they had stringent checks on everyone in and out. The QR code that brings up your personal health confirmation APP wasn't set up to work with the foreign passport holder version so friendly staff went out of their way to help me find another way in.
> Seen some stuff about petty abuses by quarantine enforcers in some places (e.g. that family playing mah jong in their own home getting raided) but my personal experience has been of a service attitude designed to protect.
> Lot less "dystopian" than a free market lottery where the poor can crawl off and die in a corner and who cares if more black people die. And they wonder why foreign press legitimate comment on China's many ills gets short shrift.


Are you white?


----------



## JimW (Apr 27, 2020)

Mation said:


> Are you white?


Yes.


----------



## Mation (Apr 27, 2020)

This is interesting. I hadn't thought about the idea of a peer to peer/decentralised contact tracing app (and wasn't likely to, tbh). It would definitely help me trust using one. Are any other countries looking at this kind of model?

*Germany ditches centralized approach to app for COVID-19 contacts tracing*



> In Europe in recent weeks, a battle has raged between different groups backing centralized vs decentralized infrastructure for apps being fast-tracked by governments which will use Bluetooth-based smartphone proximity as a proxy for infection risk — in the hopes of supporting the public health response to the coronavirus by automating some contacts tracing.
> 
> Centralized approaches that have been proposed in the region would see pseudonymized proximity data stored and processed on a server controlled by a national authority, such as a healthcare service. However concerns have been raised about allowing authorities to scoop up citizens’ social graph, with privacy experts warning of the risk of function creep and even state surveillance.
> 
> Decentralized contacts tracing infrastructure, by contrast, means ephemeral IDs are stored locally on device — and only uploaded with a user’s permission after a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis. A relay server is used to broadcast infected IDs — enabling devices to locally compute if there’s a risk that requires notification. So social graph data is not centralized.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 27, 2020)

Interesting, lengthy interview with Neil Ferguson here, recorded over the weekend.

Describes the situation in Sweden, comparing Stockholm, London and NYC (the first now approaching the third). IFR - suggests overall it is maybe around 0.8-0.9% for the UK but makes the point that it is fairly meaningless to talk about it without relating it to age demographic (London, NYC much younger populations so IFR~0.6%, in Stockholm with an older population IFR will be higher). Discusses public behaviour in response to the virus and the 'voluntary lockdown', population adherence and consequences for the reproduction number (brought down to 0.6-0.7 right now). This equates to small wiggle room so one has to be cautious about release and suggests looking towards ROK for social distancing ideas, tracing, tracking and isolating. Mentions that every country has failed to shield the elderly population particularly well. Getting on top of infection control in hospitals and care homes is one of the keys. Lockdown has been important in keeping the healthcare system in a state such that it can (potentially) soon resume elective procedures with minimal risk to the patients concerned. On letting the younger demographic run free whilst shielding the elderly/vulnerable - that this is impractical as the latter group have so much exposure to the care/health system, ie least able to be isolated (for such an approach their modelling suggests maybe 100,000+ dead later this year). Also touches on the role of SAGE, behaviour of observers and the relationship between science and politics. The danger of those with political agendas distorting the scientific view to their own ends. Is currently modelling options for lockdown relaxation.


----------



## elbows (Apr 27, 2020)

I salute his attention to infection control, and the realities of how effective shielding of the vulnerable would be as a strategy without other measures in place as well (not effective enough). I didnt know about the New York serology study, will look into that. Towards the end we also get a glimpse of how it is still sinking in that the orthodox mitigation approach actually gave way to a suppression approach (either just in time or not in time depending on what measure you use to judge). I bet it is slightly surreal for him still, there was no guarantee their March stance would have been quite so influential as it turned out to be. Although to be honest, when I go back and watch press conferences from March 9th and 12th, it was already clear that the political equation was changing in terms of the political viability of the original approach (so much effort was going into explaining why we werent doing the same things at the same time as other countries, things were becoming ripe for a u-turn), so its a bit less surprising that the previously unthinkable suddenly became the new normal.

I dont really blame him for not wanting to get dragged into aspects of the Cummings-SAGE angle, and there are plenty of others who seem happy to do so, and to have a more publicly critical relationship with the government. I dont need Ferguson to do that, and he does plenty else of use that I dont want jeopardised.

Nice to see a focus on South Korea too. I took a very cautious approach in terms of not wanting to judge any countries as being a big success too quickly, but its probably time for me to start moving on from that because we have to learn and implement some lessons from other places now, even if its still a bit soon to do final judgements on their approaches and longer term implications of them.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> Nice to see a focus on South Korea too. I took a very cautious approach in terms of not wanting to judge any countries as being a big success too quickly, but its probably time for me to start moving on from that because we have to learn and implement some lessons from other places now, even if its still a bit soon to do final judgements on their approaches and longer term implications of them.


Yep. The bottom line with South Korea, whatever else happens from now, is that they saved masses of lives and bought themselves a big chunk of time. Also, it does look like the system they now have in place is a relatively robust one wrt keeping a lid on things for as long as it takes. 

Sadly it looks increasingly that Sweden's (and the UK's original) approach is based on false assumptions drawn from handling the flu. This looks like it is several times deadlier than the flu. The idea that we'll all end up in more or less the same place is patently wrong, and I suspect a degree of wishful thinking creeping in among those who still advocate this line.


----------



## zora (Apr 27, 2020)

Few more observations about Germany's easing of restrictions. As of last week, shops under a certain size were allowed to reopen, and final year groups have returned to school. Schools felt poorly prepared, both in terms of longstanding poor standards (lack of sinks and soap etc) as well as the short lead-time from political annoucement to actual students being back in the classroom.
After the last few weeks of federal unity, the indiviual states are now interpreting the slightly relaxed rules differently. Sachsen for example is allowing religious services of up to 15 people, Northrhine-Westphalia has made an exemption to the (perceived by many as somewhat arbitrary) 800 square metre rule to allow furniture stores over this size to open. Face coverings are compulsory in the whole country as of today on puplic transport and in shops.
Many leading scientists are very concerned, both about the current easing, as well as about the calls for further loosening from different lobby groups this has inevitably spawned, worrying about the watering down of the message of how serious the situation remains. Despite the relatively good current situation in hospitals with many ICUs way under capacity, the concern is of course that a potential new exponential rise of cases would spiral quickly out of control as test and trace is not yet fully operative. The app is considered to be a fundamental part of this, as otherwise any test and trace will come too late, i.e. after the infected person has already infected more who have already infected more etc. Progess with the app has apparently been slow because of concerns about data protection (-just noticed Mation posted something about this). 
What I also found interesting, as well as slightly depressing, given the long way we are away from this, was the assessment of a politician and epidemologist (albeit one of the most "pessimistic", cautioning voices) of what would be needed to safely maintain the current easing as well as possibly go further in future: Medical grade face masks for everyone (not the homemade ones) and the contact tracing app (with an uptake of around 60% of the population as I understand), supported by up to *2 million *(gulp!) tests per week.


----------



## elbows (Apr 27, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yep. The bottom line with South Korea, whatever else happens from now, is that they saved masses of lives and bought themselves a big chunk of time. Also, it does look like the system they now have in place is a relatively robust one wrt keeping a lid on things for as long as it takes.
> 
> Sadly it looks increasingly that Sweden's (and the UK's original) approach is based on false assumptions drawn from handling the flu. This looks like it is several times deadlier than the flu. The idea that we'll all end up in more or less the same place is patently wrong, and I suspect a degree of wishful thinking creeping in among those who still advocate this line.



I think the main thing that made me cautious and skeptical about successes elsewhere was whether they could keep the numbers low enough that the testing, tracing and isolation system could remain practical at all stages. I wanted to wait and see with that side of things, given that at the time the UK had already allowed the situation to get so far out of control that it would be a while before we could possibly get back to a situation where we could implement such a system. This week I will try to spend some time absorbing news from South Korea so I can get up to date with where they are at.

The lesson from countries like South Korea that I thought we could have accepted in a timely fashion right from the start, is infection control in hospitals. Its so bloody obvious that it doesnt require a wait and see approach. One of the reasons South Korea has done well on that front is that they had a nasty early warning, when there was an outbreak in a psychiatric ward. Because this happened early and they noticed, they were able to learn quickly from it and do something before infection became too widespread to nip in the bud in hospital settings more broadly. I worry about how well the UK will manage that stuff even once we've reached a point where number of infections in general fall to levels where we can start to consider getting a proper grip on these matters. You only have to look at images of Covid-19 healthcare in South Korea to see why I worry about the UK in comparison, they have really strong protection for medical workers in the Covid-19 hospitals, and probably started with far better equipment, number of negative pressure rooms etc.

I'll save most of my thoughts on Sweden for the Sweden thread, but yes I still watch with interest to see what happens to their stance and those who want to use it to serve an agenda about lockdown and the future. Given the picture from serology studies so far in various places is not coming to their rescue, at this rate they will be left clinging to the idea that there is some kind of other lower ceiling of population susceptibility that is not understood at all but will come into view at some point. I wouldnt be betting my reputation or anybodies life on that being a thing, even though I do not rule it out and still, when searching for random future hope personally, consider it with interest.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Apr 27, 2020)

South Korea also deserves enormous credit for implementing a proper quarantine upon arrival but not closing their border to those who are not citizens, and still allowing transit through their airports. Seoul Incheon Airport provides a route out of the region for many who are trying to get home. SK's just doing an all-round tremendous job.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 27, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yep. The bottom line with South Korea, whatever else happens from now, is that they saved masses of lives and bought themselves a big chunk of time. Also, it does look like the system they now have in place is a relatively robust one wrt keeping a lid on things for as long as it takes.
> 
> Sadly it looks increasingly that Sweden's (and the UK's original) approach is based on false assumptions drawn from handling the flu. This looks like it is several times deadlier than the flu. The idea that we'll all end up in more or less the same place is patently wrong, and I suspect a degree of wishful thinking creeping in among those who still advocate this line.


I dont know if you've read this but I found it gave me  food for thought .
Which epidemiologist do you believe? - UnHerd


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> Given the picture from serology studies so far in various places is not coming to their rescue, at this rate they will be left clinging to the idea that there is some kind of other lower ceiling of population susceptibility that is not understood at all but will come into view at some point. I wouldnt be betting my reputation or anybodies life on that being a thing, even though I do not rule it out and still, when searching for random future hope personally, consider it with interest.


That has peeped its head up tantalisingly a few times now. I also await more evidence with huge interest. If it does prove to be true, those betting on herd immunity will have rather lucked out, cos at no point have I heard from its advocates anything remotely like 'well, you know, two-thirds of us can't catch it anyway'.


----------



## MrCurry (Apr 27, 2020)

Thanks for posting the interview 2hats - interesting stuff!  In the fullness of time we will see who was right I suppose.

Did you read the comments on the YouTube video?  Extraordinary conspiraloonery, ranting and accusations levelled being against Ferguson, with more than a few people suggesting he should be killed. I know the YT comments section is often filled with unhinged views, but the level of venom surprised me.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 27, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> I dont know if you've read this but I found it gave me  food for thought .
> Which epidemiologist do you believe? - UnHerd


Yeah, I watched the Giesecke interview last week. Problem is, as Ferguson points out, the assumptions Giesecke's approach is based on look like they are not correct, meaning that Sweden is experiencing high numbers of deaths without even getting close to herd immunity.

There are certain things here that either one or the other is right about, and as elbows points out above, the serology testing thus far does not support Giesecke's pov. So it's not quite a case of whom you choose to believe. That choice is constrained by the facts!

In many ways, I'd fucking love it if Giesecke were right in saying that these lockdowns are misguided and ultimately pointless. Speaking purely selfishly, that would point to a way out of this sooner rather than later as the 'tsunami' washes away into the distance. But I really don't think he is. It's reaching a point where I struggle to see how he can be.


----------



## elbows (Apr 27, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> That has peeped its head up tantalisingly a few times now. I also await more evidence with huge interest. If it does prove to be true, those betting on herd immunity will have rather lucked out, cos at no point have I heard from its advocates anything remotely like 'well, you know, two-thirds of us can't catch it anyway'.



Has it ever popped up with a detailed scientific explanation of any possibilities that point in that direction though? It hasnt for me, when I have brought it up its only because of my interest in what other coronaviruses did in humans when they first appeared, and because I like to sit and think about which things we have fed into models are actually assumptions rather than certainties or near certainties. Since some of the assumptions about population susceptibility look like they might be based on influenza-related assumptions, or at least have initially been based on that, I choose to keep an open mind on it, but it would be nice if I had seen some actual theories that put some theoretical meat on these bones.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> Has it ever popped up with a detailed scientific explanation of any possibilities that point in that direction though? It hasnt for me, when I have brought it up its only because of my interest in what other coronaviruses did in humans when they first appeared, and because I like to sit and think about which things we have fed into models are actually assumptions rather than certainties or near certainties. Since some of the assumptions about population susceptibility look like they might be based on influenza-related assumptions, or at least have initially been based on that, I choose to keep an open mind on it, but it would be nice if I had seen some actual theories that put some theoretical meat on these bones.


I've not seen any theories as to the mechanism by which it might happen, merely speculations based on the way in which it doesn't appear to have spread much beyond about 20% of the population even in the most severely hit places, institutions or even households.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 27, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yeah, I watched the Giesecke interview last week. Problem is, as Ferguson points out, the assumptions Giesecke's approach is based on look like they are not correct, meaning that Sweden is experiencing high numbers of deaths without even getting close to herd immunity.
> 
> There are certain things here that either one or the other is right about, and as elbows points out above, the serology testing thus far does not support Giesecke's pov. So it's not quite a case of whom you choose to believe. That choice is constrained by the facts!
> 
> In many ways, I'd fucking love it if Giesecke were right in saying that these lockdowns are misguided and ultimately pointless. Speaking purely selfishly, that would point to a way out of this sooner rather than later as the 'tsunami' washes away into the distance. But I really don't think he is. It's reaching a point where I struggle to see how he can be.


Thought it was interesting conundrum about living with the virus /living for the virus


----------



## smokedout (Apr 27, 2020)

elbows said:


> Has it ever popped up with a detailed scientific explanation of any possibilities that point in that direction though?



This isn't that but this study is interesting, and points to one possibility.  If children are not infectious, or not very infectious, then they might as well be immune in terms of herd immunity, they might get it, some but not many might get very sick, but if they can't pass it on then it ends with them.  Around 20% of the UK population is under 16, another 20% or so are 17-30.  It's wild speculation, but possible that children and young people (or many children and young people) may not pass it on, which would mean something approaching a herd immunity effect with a much lower number of cases than is currently thought necessary.

Obviously that could be complete crap and it could just be that the 9 year old in that study wasn't infectious for some reason, but other children are.  I do feel children are being left out of the picture a bit both in terms of research and testing though and I think we might learn something if more work was being done around that.


----------



## elbows (Apr 27, 2020)

I've spoken a bit on UK-specific threads about using total excess mortality data rather than only the deaths with Covid-19 on the death certificate. I havent had much chance to apply the same logic to other countries yet, but here is a free FT article that is tracking just such things.

I'm afraid the picture is grim.









						Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported | Free to read
					

Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across 14 countries analysed by the FT




					www.ft.com
				




Germany interests me a lot but even their full data in this regard for March isnt available quite yet, so they dont feature in the FT article yet. And although the March data will give me some clues, its really April that I am interested in, so likely a long wait for that.


----------



## elbows (Apr 27, 2020)

zora said:


> Few more observations about Germany's easing of restrictions. As of last week, shops under a certain size were allowed to reopen, and final year groups have returned to school. Schools felt poorly prepared, both in terms of longstanding poor standards (lack of sinks and soap etc) as well as the short lead-time from political annoucement to actual students being back in the classroom.
> After the last few weeks of federal unity, the indiviual states are now interpreting the slightly relaxed rules differently. Sachsen for example is allowing religious services of up to 15 people, Northrhine-Westphalia has made an exemption to the (perceived by many as somewhat arbitrary) 800 square metre rule to allow furniture stores over this size to open. Face coverings are compulsory in the whole country as of today on puplic transport and in shops.
> Many leading scientists are very concerned, both about the current easing, as well as about the calls for further loosening from different lobby groups this has inevitably spawned, worrying about the watering down of the message of how serious the situation remains. Despite the relatively good current situation in hospitals with many ICUs way under capacity, the concern is of course that a potential new exponential rise of cases would spiral quickly out of control as test and trace is not yet fully operative. The app is considered to be a fundamental part of this, as otherwise any test and trace will come too late, i.e. after the infected person has already infected more who have already infected more etc. Progess with the app has apparently been slow because of concerns about data protection (-just noticed Mation posted something about this).
> What I also found interesting, as well as slightly depressing, given the long way we are away from this, was the assessment of a politician and epidemologist (albeit one of the most "pessimistic", cautioning voices) of what would be needed to safely maintain the current easing as well as possibly go further in future: Medical grade face masks for everyone (not the homemade ones) and the contact tracing app (with an uptake of around 60% of the population as I understand), supported by up to *2 million *(gulp!) tests per week.



Thanks for the info. I found an article about a bunch of these aspects and resulting concerns. I am nervous about the situation there when I read some of this.





__





						AAAS
					






					www.sciencemag.org


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 27, 2020)

My mate lives in Germany in a customer facing role and is very worried about reopening. She says there are plans to allow groups of 50 people in Berlin from the beginning of May.


----------



## elbows (Apr 27, 2020)

I wont be surprised if the difference between countries/regions getting away with some of this stuff and not, comes down to what percentage of their populations remain personally concerned to the extent that they basically end up ignoring a good proportion of the relaxations and carry on staying away from various locations. Some businesses that have pressed for reopening may be very dissapointed with the customer footfall they end up with to start with. I'm not suggesting this will always be the case, I am concerned, but I know that there is a buffer of public behaviour between the political and business decisions and the horrors of renewed epidemic growth.


----------



## Humberto (Apr 27, 2020)

Take it on the chin. Let's get ready to  rumble. What was the Churchill shit, did I miss anything?


----------



## weltweit (Apr 28, 2020)

New Zealand is apparently starting to relax lockdown. 

11am today a minute's silence for care UK workers.


----------



## redsquirrel (Apr 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> 11am today a minute's silence for care UK workers.


Pedantic but it's actually all workers that have been killed at work - part of International Workers Memorial Day


----------



## Anju (Apr 28, 2020)

Some detail on how regional government want to handle reopening of bars, restaurants, shops and places of worship in Andalusia. 

La Junta propone 30 minutos máximos en los bares y 90 en los restaurantes de Andalucía

"The Board proposes a maximum of 30 minutes in bars and 90 in restaurants in Andalusia"

"Thus, it will be mandatory a *medical* examination *of all employees* before joining their job and it will be necessary to *take the temperature to customers* who want to access the premises, in addition to maintaining safety distances and the use of masks and hydroalcools in all the establishments.

The Board's recommendation is that *there should be no more than 30 minutes for breakfast* and 90 minutes for main meals. In addition, reservations for more than four people will not be allowed and dishes cannot be shared between diners.

Likewise, the installation of filters in the air conditioning systems and the implementation of several meal shifts are requested at 2:00 pm and 3:30 pm so that there is time for the disinfection of the establishments."

Not sure how effective this sort of thing would be in stopping the spread of the virus or if it will allow enough trade for businesses to survive, especially as many places will normally rely on tourists or locals who earn their money through tourism. All a bit wishful thinking isn't it?

Also, hopefully just a Google translate error. 

"We believe that it is a social demand to be able to fire the people who have died"


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> I wont be surprised if the difference between countries/regions getting away with some of this stuff and not, comes down to what percentage of their populations remain personally concerned to the extent that they basically end up ignoring a good proportion of the relaxations and carry on staying away from various locations. Some businesses that have pressed for reopening may be very dissapointed with the customer footfall they end up with to start with. I'm not suggesting this will always be the case, I am concerned, but I know that there is a buffer of public behaviour between the political and business decisions and the horrors of renewed epidemic growth.


The week before lockdown, the pubs around me were all very nearly empty - two or three people in each at after-work time when they would normally be packed. It's been mentioned that pubs will be rammed when they reopen, but I think you're right and they'll be nearly empty at first. tbh this may end up being a key to the way lockdown easing works - we informally ease ourselves out of it in much the same way that we informally eased ourselves into it. 

Thing is we still don't really know how bad places like pubs and restaurants were for transmission. Do we know how many pub staff came down with it vs the general population, for instance? Would be worth knowing. We know about transport workers, but not so much about others. I still think packed public transport, with its various means of transmission, is likely to be a much bigger issue. I've been very resistant to the idea of masks, but perhaps a compulsory mask on the tube/trains for a while might be sensible.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 28, 2020)

[Quoting the Andalucian regional government, presumably] :




			
				Anju said:
			
		

> "The Board proposes a maximum of 30 minutes in bars and 90 in restaurants in Andalusia"



This would surely be very difficult to enforce there?

And as for UK pubs? I don't see anything even remotely similar** being workable 

**I know it's not been suggested here, but!!


----------



## jontz01 (Apr 28, 2020)

weltweit said:


> New Zealand is apparently starting to relax lockdown.



We've just moved into level 3 lockdown. It's essentially the same rules but with an interest in getting the economy started again. Stay at home except for essential travel. Construction and forestry industries starting up again. Some cafes and fast food able to do contactless transactions. You're allowed to widen your bubble slightly. We can travel within the region for essential reasons.

I'm 'stuck' on Mt Maunganui beach. It's visibly much busier today. All of a sudden, there is traffic, lots of it. Surf's up and people are hitting the water in abundance.


----------



## Petcha (Apr 28, 2020)

jontz01 said:


> We've just moved into level 3 lockdown. It's essentially the same rules but with an interest in getting the economy started again. Stay at home except for essential travel. Construction and forestry industries starting up again. Some cafes and fast food able to do contactless transactions. You're allowed to widen your bubble slightly. We can travel within the region for essential reasons.
> 
> I'm 'stuck' on Mt Maunganui beach. It's visibly much busier today. All of a sudden, there is traffic, lots of it. Surf's up and people are hitting the water in abundance.



Are the airports still shut? I've got a mate who's 'stuck' down there too.


----------



## Petcha (Apr 28, 2020)

That whole 'level' system you have operating there makes a lot of sense. At least the public knows where it stands and what the actual rules are at any point.


----------



## jontz01 (Apr 28, 2020)

Petcha said:


> Are the airports still shut? I've got a mate who's 'stuck' down there too.


Borders are closed to incoming traffic. I think there's still a few outbound flights for displaced people... internal flights are only available for those trying to leave the country. We were called by the British high commission the other day as apparently UK have put on 5 flights for standed people. We were classed as high priority as my wife is 7 months preggers and we've got a 4 year old. We turned down the offer of the flight. I'll do another post in the personal circumstances thread when I get chance so as to not derail this too far... 

The level system is great. You know exactly what you are and aren't allowed to do, with updates daily from either the PM or her mateys. She's the only politician I've ever trusted in my life. She speaks to you like a caring mother.


----------



## Petcha (Apr 28, 2020)

jontz01 said:


> Borders are closed to incoming traffic. I think there's still a few outbound flights for displaced people... internal flights are only available for those trying to leave the country. We were called by the British high commission the other day as apparently UK have put on 5 flights for standed people. We were classed as high priority as my wife is 7 months preggers and we've got a 4 year old. We turned down the offer of the flight. I'll do another post in the personal circumstances thread when I get chance so as to not derail this too far...
> 
> The level system is great. You know exactly what you are and aren't allowed to do, with updates daily from either the PM or her mateys. She's the only politician I've ever trusted in my life. She speaks to you like a caring mother.



I'd just stay there if I was you. Our daily updates come from the likes of Priti Patel trumpeting the fact that shoplifting has gone down, because, er, the shops are shut and Matt Hancock not actually telling us anything about when we might possibly come out of this. Yes, the Kiwi PM seems to be a cut above but presumably she's also been receiving slightly better scientific advice from the start. It certainly couldn't be worse than the chief scientist here.


----------



## zora (Apr 28, 2020)

Just posted on the football and coronavirus thread about the plans to restart the Bundesliga from as early as 9 May (behind closed doors, of course). Also linked to this Guardian article on the topic there.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 28, 2020)

Could someone comment on this for me please:

A friend said to me yesterday that it is striking that countries with better plans and outcomes are those with high ranking politicians and policy makers who have a science and /or medical background.

Merkel was a research chemist I think, and apparently someone high up in S Korea is a virologist or epidemiologist.

It would make sense.

Is this true?

Is this more widely the case?


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 28, 2020)

Deaths in Nigerian city raise concerns over undetected Covid-19 outbreaks nooooooo


----------



## maomao (Apr 28, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Could someone comment on this for me please:
> 
> A friend said to me yesterday that it is striking that countries with better plans and outcomes are those with high ranking politicians and policy makers who have a science and /or medical background.
> 
> ...



I've just been through half the UK cabinet's education and they all did bloody PPE. No wonder our health secretary can't pronounce 'asymptomatic'.


----------



## Lord Camomile (Apr 28, 2020)

redsquirrel said:


> Pedantic but it's actually all workers that have been killed at work - part of International Workers Memorial Day


Yeah, that has, unsurprisingly, been lost on most. On the BBC it was definitely presented as for 'keyworkers' rather than everyone.


----------



## elbows (Apr 28, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Could someone comment on this for me please:
> 
> A friend said to me yesterday that it is striking that countries with better plans and outcomes are those with high ranking politicians and policy makers who have a science and /or medical background.
> 
> ...



I cannot say whether that is a factor. I can say that it isnt the only one, because there are a bunch of longer term reasons why some countries responded better. Germany maintained a much larger ICU capacity over many years, and had a decentralised and large diagnostics industry which made a large difference in their ability to test in relatively large numbers. Merkel didnt scupper these things during her time in power, but I expect she is also not the originator of them, original decisions about these things probably happened a long, long time ago.

Plus the differences in timing and overall approach from Germany were not radically different - they were a bit different, and the testing regime clearly had a notable effect, but its not like they were miles ahead of everyone else when it came to lockdown, it still took what happened in Italy (and then Spain) for lockdowns to suddenly be considered viable and essential in the EU.

Recently Whitty said that when he talked to his German counterparts, they werent too sure why they were quite as successful as they appear to have been so far. In some ways this sounds like a very silly thing to say, but in others there is probably some truth to it. Partly because erring on the side of caution means they do not want to judge themselves as a big success yet, early gains, even impressively large ones, could still be lost in theory. And the reasons for the successes so far may be a combination of the obvious things we all seize upon (testing, hospital capacity) but also some others that havent really been in the spotlight yet. We know that infection control in care homes and hospitals can be quite the difference makers, and could presume that Germany had some success on these fronts, but some of those successes could have been down somewhat to luck or some existing characteristics of their care home sector or societal behaviour. 

I could also suggest that gains made by Germany were amplified by the timing. In theory locking down one week earlier in the epidemic wave would make a very notable difference to how big that wave got. But its not just a question of pure timing, the key is timing of lockdown relative to stage of epidemic at that moment. So if Germanys epidemic was at an earlier stage when they locked down, because for example their testing regime had slowed the growth there during some key weeks, then this ends up being somewhat equivalent to having locked down weeks earlier than some other countries, even if they were not actually weeks earlier based purely on the calendar.


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 28, 2020)

maomao said:


> I've just been through half the UK cabinet's education and they all did bloody PPE. No wonder our health secretary can't pronounce 'asymptomatic'.



They might have done PPE then but they ain't doing PPE now.

Yes I know what PPE is, that's the dark humour.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 28, 2020)

maomao said:


> I've just been through half the UK cabinet's education and they all did bloody PPE. No wonder our health secretary can't pronounce 'asymptomatic'.




I think it’s a truth universally acknowledged that politicians who are career politicians are shit politicians.


Also, I had to re-read PPE several time to even remember that PPE isn’t PPE.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 28, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Could someone comment on this for me please:
> 
> A friend said to me yesterday that it is striking that countries with better plans and outcomes are those with high ranking politicians and policy makers who have a science and /or medical background.
> 
> ...


Remember that Thatcher was a research chemist as well... Thatcher would probably have handled this far better than Johnson as well, though, tbf. Millions of people could.

New Zealand's Jacinta Ardern has a background in PR and policy wonkdom.


----------



## redsquirrel (Apr 28, 2020)

Lord Camomile said:


> Yeah, that has, unsurprisingly, been lost on most. On the BBC it was definitely presented as for 'keyworkers' rather than everyone.


Yep not seen a single media outlet report this initiative as something from workers and unions rather than the government. Fuckers


----------



## maomao (Apr 28, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I think it’s a truth universally acknowledged that politicians who are career politicians are shit politicians.


Well the only science graduate UK politician who springs to mind was a very effective politician. Not sure I'd want her in charge now and more than I did then though.


----------



## platinumsage (Apr 28, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Could someone comment on this for me please:
> 
> A friend said to me yesterday that it is striking that countries with better plans and outcomes are those with high ranking politicians and policy makers who have a science and /or medical background.
> 
> ...



Are you suggesting Thatcher would have done a good job?   




maomao said:


> I've just been through half the UK cabinet's education and they all did bloody PPE. No wonder our health secretary can't pronounce 'asymptomatic'.



PPE does happen to be arguably the most appropriate course in the best university for those wanting to enter politics, so it's not really a surprise that half the cabinet have done it, although I'm sure we'd all like more people along the lines of Nadine Dorries government.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 28, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Merkel was a research chemist I think


Physics then a doctorate in quantum chemistry (molecular quantum mechanics).


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 28, 2020)

2hats said:


> Physics then a doctorate in quantum chemistry (molecular quantum mechanics).


Yeah, a bit more highly qualified in her field than Thatcher, tbf, who quickly switched to law.


----------



## maomao (Apr 28, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> PPE does happen to be arguably the most appropriate course in the best university for those wanting to enter politics, so it's not really a surprise that half the cabinet have done it, although I'm sure we'd all like more people along the lines of Nadine Dorries government.


Well there's obviously something wrong with politics then. And I know little about Dorries and doubt there's much to impress but I'd rather the country were being run by qualified nurses than PPE graduates right now. Or at any time for that matter.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 28, 2020)

maomao said:


> Well there's obviously something wrong with politics then. And I know little about Dorries and doubt there's much to impress but I'd rather the country were being run by qualified nurses than PPE graduates right now. Or at any time for that matter.


tbh formal qualifications are pretty much irrelevant. I'd rather have a socialist who left school at 15 with a CSE in technical drawing if they worked with good principles on which to base their decisions. It's up to others to present the expert opinion, and the politician to weigh them up and make the political decision. Nothing to do with formal qualifications really.


----------



## maomao (Apr 28, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> tbh formal qualifications are pretty much irrelevant. I'd rather have a socialist who left school at 15 with a CSE in technical drawing if they worked with good principles on which to base their decisions. It's up to others to present the expert opinion, and the politician to weigh them up and make the political decision. Nothing to do with formal qualifications really.


Anyone except PPE graduates would be a start.


----------



## Anju (Apr 28, 2020)

Rate of infection back up to 1 in Germany from a mid April low of 0.7.

Is this an indication that lifting lockdown is only going to be possible with viable test, trace, isolate in place before any easing takes place. 

Coronavirus: Germany's infection rate increases


----------



## zahir (Apr 28, 2020)

Greece - using face masks to be mandatory when lockdown is lifted.


> The committee was clear, saying that there is a strong recommendation for the use of a mask, which is now mandatory in certain areas.
> 
> According to the committee, “should be used as a mandatory measure in public transport and other busy areas, such as hospitals, grocery stores, diagnostic laboratories, clinics, hairdressers, barbershops, beauty salons, and all closed and busy places.”
> 
> In all busy indoor areas the use of mask should be mandatory for both customers and employees in close contact with the public, such as salespeople and cashiers.











						Greece makes “use of mask mandatory in closed places” - Keep Talking Greece
					

The use of face mask will be mandatory in closed and busy places when the lockdown is lifted , Profe




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 28, 2020)

Lithuanian capital to be turned into vast open-air cafe this is cool


----------



## zahir (Apr 28, 2020)

Greece - the crisis in the health system.









						Cash-strapped Greece weathers virus for now, but fears second wave
					

The country’s health system is still struggling after years of austerity.




					www.politico.eu


----------



## elbows (Apr 28, 2020)

Anju said:


> Rate of infection back up to 1 in Germany from a mid April low of 0.7.
> 
> Is this an indication that lifting lockdown is only going to be possible with viable test, trace, isolate in place before any easing takes place.
> 
> Coronavirus: Germany's infection rate increases



Its hard to be sure, hard to separate out different possible influences, and R0 will vary per setting, so I dont know if care home outbreaks are driving an increase in that number, for example. And its only an estimate. But it is a cause for concern and needs to be watched carefully.



> Estimation of the reproduction number (R)
> The reproduction number, R, is the mean number of persons infected by a case. R can only be estimated and not directly extracted from the notification system. The current estimate is R= 1.0 (95% confidence interval: 0.8-1.1) and is based on current electronically notified cases (27/04/2020, 12:00 A.M.) and an assumed mean generation time of 4 days. Cases with disease onset on the preceding 3 days were excluded from the estimation as their low number due to incomplete reporting would lead to an unstable estimate. For more details on the methodology see Epid. Bull. 17 | 2020 (in German)RKI  -  Archiv 2020 - Schätzung der aktuellen Entwicklung der SARS-CoV-2-Epidemie in Deutschland - Nowcasting





			https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-04-27-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 28, 2020)

Portugal , new cases showing signs of levelling off , no big bang break through but tentative progress. Government and 'experts' begin meetings to look at re-opening
key: 

Confirmados = confirmed  this is today *24,322*
Recuperados = recuperated
Óbitos =dead  this is today *948*
Suspeitos =suspected
Amostras =tested

30,703  monitored by the NHS, 995  in hospital, 176 in intensive care









						A evolução da COVID - 19 em Portugal
					

RTP Notícias - Descrição




					www.rtp.pt


----------



## yield (Apr 28, 2020)

See-through solution: Deaf Indonesians turn to clear coronavirus masks to help lip-reading
28/04/20


> MAKASSAR (AFP) - Lip-reading suddenly got tricky when everyone covered their faces during the coronavirus pandemic, but Indonesian tailors have hit upon the perfect solution - see-through masks.
> 
> One husband and wife duo in Makassar on Sulawesi island started producing cloth masks with transparent plastic in the middle to help fellow deaf people.





> "Since the pandemic started, everyone is wearing face masks. For deaf people, we can't understand what others are saying because we can't read their lips," said 52-year-old Faizah Badaruddin.
> 
> "There were a lot of misunderstandings," she added.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 28, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> Are you suggesting Thatcher would have done a good job?
> 
> 
> 
> ...




No of course not. How the fuck did you arrive at that from my question.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 28, 2020)

Portuguese State of Emergency will end on May 2nd. "The end of the state of emergency is not the end of the outbreak, it is not the end of the necessary control" , *“*It is a resumption or opening by small steps” and, warns Marcelo, the key to the success of this phase will depend on a “constant evaluation”.


----------



## platinumsage (Apr 28, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> No of course not. How the fuck did you arrive at that from my question.



Thatcher was a research chemist, so I would have thought it was a logical conclusion from the argument you were making.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Apr 28, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> Thatcher was a research chemist, so I would have thought it was a logical conclusion from the argument you were making.




I wasn't making an argument though. At all. I was asking a question.


ETA

To rephrase the question:
Is it the case that the countries that have had better outcomes and better laid plans have politicians in positions of power and policy making who have some kind of background in the sciences?


----------



## teqniq (Apr 28, 2020)




----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 28, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> Portugal , new cases showing signs of levelling off , no big bang break through but tentative progress. Government and 'experts' begin meetings to look at re-opening
> key:
> 
> Confirmados = confirmed  this is today *24,322*
> ...


tbf Portugal is doing a lot better than showing signs of levelling off. New cases showed signs of levelling off at the end of March. It's been steadily going down since then. Only gently, but steadily. Good thing about that is that Portugal has done shit-loads of testing, so a steady decline in new cases has meaning.

Number of confirmed cases in Portugal has doubled in the last 21 days. The previous doubling took just 9 days.

It is interesting that they give the 'suspected' figure alongside the confirmed. Do you know what criteria they use for that?


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 28, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> tbf Portugal is doing a lot better than showing signs of levelling off. New cases showed signs of levelling off at the end of March. It's been steadily going down since then. Only gently, but steadily. Good thing about that is that Portugal has done shit-loads of testing, so a steady decline in new cases has meaning.
> 
> It is interesting that they give the 'suspected' figure alongside the confirmed. Do you know what criteria they use for that?


Havent a clue to be honest, thought it might be people who had rang the hotline but hadnt continued by nope, then thought it might be based on likely infection rate  ie ratio of infected passing on but cant find anything and as i've only spoken to about five people in the last six weeks and none of them fluent enough for me to ask (even if they knew)  I cant answer your question.


----------



## Raheem (Apr 28, 2020)

Anju said:


> Also, hopefully just a Google translate error.
> 
> "We believe that it is a social demand to be able to fire the people who have died"


Should be "say goodbye to", rather than fire.


----------



## elbows (Apr 28, 2020)

A little bit more detail on Germany, from the middle of a story about the fears of renewed spread, easing of lockdown etc. My bold.



> Yet Wieler insisted on Tuesday that the infection rate should not be taken out of context and "should only be looked at alongside other figures".
> 
> "Another important figure is the number of new infections per day," he said, a number which had fallen to just over 1,000 this week, having been twice or four times as high in weeks gone by.
> 
> ...





			https://www.thelocal.de/20200428/german-virus-spread-worsens-as-lockdown-eases


----------



## teuchter (Apr 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> I cannot say whether that is a factor. I can say that it isnt the only one, because there are a bunch of longer term reasons why some countries responded better. Germany maintained a much larger ICU capacity over many years, and had a decentralised and large diagnostics industry which made a large difference in their ability to test in relatively large numbers. Merkel didnt scupper these things during her time in power, but I expect she is also not the originator of them, original decisions about these things probably happened a long, long time ago.
> 
> Plus the differences in timing and overall approach from Germany were not radically different - they were a bit different, and the testing regime clearly had a notable effect, but its not like they were miles ahead of everyone else when it came to lockdown, it still took what happened in Italy (and then Spain) for lockdowns to suddenly be considered viable and essential in the EU.
> 
> ...


Everyone is quite obsessed with linking the actions of different governments or qualities of individual politicians to the widely different spread in different countries, and of course each nation's response will play a part in how hard they are hit, but it does seem that luck must be a major factor.

Just for example, where your first case happens to land must make quite a big difference. If it's in a small place, not densely populated, and the person doesn't meet a lot of people, then after a week or two of unseen spread, surely there are going to be many fewer people infected than if your first case happens to be a very socially active person living in a densely populated large city and going to work on crowded public transport. In the first example you might still get away with a dithering response - by the time symptoms appear and you start to take action, the numbers are small enough that you can keep the lid on it. But in the second example even a slightly prompter response might already be too late.


----------



## zahir (Apr 28, 2020)

Greece - plans for lifting lockdown









						Roadmap of lockdown lifting in Greece: May 4 – begin of July, 2020 (UPD) - Keep Talking Greece
					

Greece 's  Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced on Tuesday afternoon the roadmap according t




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com
				











						Stores, businesses to return to operation in stages | eKathimerini.com
					

The public will need to wear masks when using public transportation, Deputy Infrastructure and Transport Minister Yiannis Kefalogiannis said on Tuesday, speaking after Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced the gradual rollback of coronavirus-related measures.




					www.ekathimerini.com


----------



## elbows (Apr 28, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Everyone is quite obsessed with linking the actions of different governments or qualities of individual politicians to the widely different spread in different countries, and of course each nation's response will play a part in how hard they are hit, but it does seem that luck must be a major factor.
> 
> Just for example, where your first case happens to land must make quite a big difference. If it's in a small place, not densely populated, and the person doesn't meet a lot of people, then after a week or two of unseen spread, surely there are going to be many fewer people infected than if your first case happens to be a very socially active person living in a densely populated large city and going to work on crowded public transport. In the first example you might still get away with a dithering response - by the time symptoms appear and you start to take action, the numbers are small enough that you can keep the lid on it. But in the second example even a slightly prompter response might already be too late.



Good fortune helped some places, and that is one of the things to be considered. Timing of measures relative to epidemic stage and scale is the big one, and so of course this ends up being a combination of fortune and preparation and monitoring and making the right decisions at the right time.

That does not mean people running the show and doing the planning get off, because a vital key to managing pandemics and epidemics is that you are not supposed to rely on good fortune, you are supposed to get your surveillance systems in order so that you at least know where you are in the epidemic so you can do the right things at the right time. The UK government went on and on about doing the right things at the right time when they were still following plan a in the first half of March, often when they wanted to explain why they were not acting at the same pace as some other countries with things like school closures. They were quite rightly questioned about it at the time, and some of the results of their choice of timing are clear to see already. It is not currently possible for me to say whether they got both the original plan and the timing wrong, or only the plan wrong. Because the original plan (mitigation) called for different timing to the one they had to switch to (lockdown/suppression). This is evident in various pronouncements from the first half of March where they made statements about epidemic timing that sound very odd now. Talk about 'pushing the peak off into the summer' and of how the peak could be '10-14 weeks away'. And the notorious claim that we were 4 weeks behind Italy. My provisional view is that it was both the plan and their sense of the epidemics timing that was wrong, but future revelations may cause me to reevaluate.


----------



## Supine (Apr 28, 2020)

My head hurts


----------



## kabbes (Apr 29, 2020)

Covid19 rainbow death typhoon.

I’ve seen worse graphs, mind.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 29, 2020)

Germany, a bit more information:

Germans urged to stay at home amid fears Covid-19 infection rate is rising again 


> Germans have been advised to stay at home as much as possible and continue to apply physical distancing as official data appeared to indicate the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic was once again accelerating.
> ..
> On Tuesday, the German government’s disease control agency, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), announced the reproduction number for Monday 27 April had risen to 1, after having put it as low as 0.7 in mid-April.





> Lothar Wieler, the RKI’s president, later specified that the reproduction rate for Monday was 0.96, and therefore technically still below one.
> ..
> “Let us continue to stay at home as much as possible, keep observing the restrictions and keep a distance of 1.5 metres from one another,” Wieler said.


from 28/04/2020 Germans urged to stay at home amid fears Covid-19 infection rate is rising again

and 

Coronavirus: Germany's rate of COVID-19 infections grows after lockdown eased


> Germany faces the prospect of having to restore stricter lockdown measures as its number and rate of coronavirus infections grew again.
> ..
> And while officials believe it is too early to say whether the lifting of restrictions caused the increase, the country's overall number of COVID-19 cases grew by 1,018 on Monday and 1,144 on Tuesday.
> ..
> And while officials believe it is too early to say whether the lifting of restrictions caused the increase, the country's overall number of COVID-19 cases grew by 1,018 on Monday and 1,144 on Tuesday.


from 29/04/2020 Coronavirus: Germany's rate of COVID-19 infections grows after lockdown eased


----------



## weltweit (Apr 29, 2020)

If Germany are getting 1000 new cases every day that is going to put quite a strain on their contact tracing effects.


----------



## Cid (Apr 29, 2020)

As usual, just some thoughts from the armchair, not much scientific basis...

Also something of an illustration of how the UK can't just jump from the current situation to contact tracing... and as to why we might have to rely to at least some extent on Apps that some are extremely uncomfortable with. I mean clearly it's essentially the only way to ever ease lockdown pre-vaccine, except placing anyone with a pre-existing health condition under quarantine (which is - as I've mentioned before - far more people than many imagine), but it would be incredibly hard to manage given the general spread of the disease. 

We can now say a few things clearly - from New York we know the infection fatality rate is at least 0.15% (because that percentage of the population is already dead), with estimates of the actual rate being 0.4-0.8%. The antibody study of shoppers puts the infection rate in New York City at 25%, though obviously there are some uncertainties around that. That does not present a good picture. Any easing of lockdown needs to be done with extreme care, and with a coherent policy in place to keep R0 low. Personally I don't think the current administration is capable of that... Really it requires weeks of a harder lockdown*, followed by a comprehensive, technology supported test and trace policy, ongoing WFH, ongoing closure of large institutions, probably no reopening of restaurants etc. 

*I don't think a harder lockdown actually requires that much further infringement on personal freedom to exercise etc. Rather means a more comprehensive mass closure effort - construction companies, moving supermarkets to click and collect, provision of PPE to those who have to work - that kind of thing. Probably some degree of enforcement if the weather gets nice again (actually we should probably go into hard lockdown now, since it's shite out).


----------



## Azrael (Apr 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> Good fortune helped some places, and that is one of the things to be considered. Timing of measures relative to epidemic stage and scale is the big one, and so of course this ends up being a combination of fortune and preparation and monitoring and making the right decisions at the right time.
> 
> That does not mean people running the show and doing the planning get off, because a vital key to managing pandemics and epidemics is that you are not supposed to rely on good fortune, you are supposed to get your surveillance systems in order so that you at least know where you are in the epidemic so you can do the right things at the right time. The UK government went on and on about doing the right things at the right time when they were still following plan a in the first half of March, often when they wanted to explain why they were not acting at the same pace as some other countries with things like school closures. They were quite rightly questioned about it at the time, and some of the results of their choice of timing are clear to see already. It is not currently possible for me to say whether they got both the original plan and the timing wrong, or only the plan wrong. Because the original plan (mitigation) called for different timing to the one they had to switch to (lockdown/suppression). This is evident in various pronouncements from the first half of March where they made statements about epidemic timing that sound very odd now. Talk about 'pushing the peak off into the summer' and of how the peak could be '10-14 weeks away'. And the notorious claim that we were 4 weeks behind Italy. My provisional view is that it was both the plan and their sense of the epidemics timing that was wrong, but future revelations may cause me to reevaluate.


Interestingly Ireland initially had the same basic phased plan, but were far more cautious about moving from one stage to the next, tried to prolong "contain" as long as they could, and crucially, never abandoned contact tracing, ensuring they never lost track of their outbreak. This made it far easier for them to rapidly change course to a suppression strategy as they learned more about the nature of the virus.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 29, 2020)

weltweit said:


> If Germany are getting 1000 new cases every day that is going to put quite a strain on their contact tracing effects.



The situation in Germany is without a doubt a bit of a worry.  Coming out of lockdown was never going to be a smooth and linear process and as with everything with this pandemic results are going to vary country to country.  But it would be very depressing to see countries reinstating lockdown measures.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 29, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> The situation in Germany is without a doubt a bit of a worry.  Coming out of lockdown was never going to be a smooth and linear process and as with everything with this pandemic results are going to vary country to country.  But it would be very depressing to see countries reinstating lockdown measures.


Important to note that Gemrany never had anything close to the national lockdowns imposed in France, Spain and Italy, and with 16 state governments free to set their own policies, easing measures was always gonna be patchy. Nor did they ever have their outbreak as well contained as several Asian countries.


----------



## Supine (Apr 29, 2020)

This is the first meta analysis of infection fatality rates I’ve seen. Worth a read.


----------



## Chilli.s (Apr 29, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> But it would be very depressing to see countries reinstating lockdown measures.


Do it once but do it properly. (And fingers crossed)


----------



## Anju (Apr 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its hard to be sure, hard to separate out different possible influences, and R0 will vary per setting, so I dont know if care home outbreaks are driving an increase in that number, for example. And its only an estimate. But it is a cause for concern and needs to be watched carefully.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Good interview here where the guy pretty much quotes your post. Other interesting stuff in there. Doesn't feel like reading an interview with a government advisor.


"Q: If the lockdown were kept in place longer, could the disease be eradicated?
A: There is a group of modellers in Germany who suggest that by prolonging lockdown here for another few weeks, we could really suppress virus circulation to a considerable degree – bringing the reproduction number below 0.2. I tend to support them but I haven’t completely made up my mind. The reproduction number is just an average, an indication. It doesn’t tell you about pockets of high prevalence such as senior citizens’ homes, where it will take longer to eradicate the disease, and from where we could see a rapid resurgence even if lockdown were extended."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/virologist-christian-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview?


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 29, 2020)

Brazil.

5,017 deaths.

A record 474 deaths yesterday.

Bolsonaro's response?

"So what? I'm sorry. What do you want me to do?"









						'So what?': Bolsonaro shrugs off Brazil's rising coronavirus death toll
					

Outrage at president’s response to news that more than 5,000 people have lost their lives




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## weltweit (Apr 29, 2020)

It could get so much worse in Brazil than it is already and, Bolsonaro is being a dick.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 29, 2020)

Yeah you could probably already triple that number.


----------



## gentlegreen (Apr 29, 2020)

Vadana Shiva is capitalising on this to spread her shite.

I have no intention of watching the video - the comments were quite sufficient.
These people live among us and are allowed to use pointy scissors. 



Spoiler: Vadana Shiva


----------



## teuchter (Apr 29, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Interestingly Ireland initially had the same basic phased plan, but were far more cautious about moving from one stage to the next, tried to prolong "contain" as long as they could, and crucially, never abandoned contact tracing, ensuring they never lost track of their outbreak. This made it far easier for them to rapidly change course to a suppression strategy as they learned more about the nature of the virus.


Is Ireland doing significantly better than the UK? Doesn't look like it to me.










						An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC
					

An interactive, data-forward visualization of COVID-19 data by Prof. Wade at The University of Illinois.  Updated daily.




					91-divoc.com


----------



## magneze (Apr 29, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> The situation in Germany is without a doubt a bit of a worry.  Coming out of lockdown was never going to be a smooth and linear process and as with everything with this pandemic results are going to vary country to country.  But it would be very depressing to see countries reinstating lockdown measures.


I wouldn't be surprised if, as a result, the UK just stays in lockdown for a while until some country works out how to come out with success..


----------



## magneze (Apr 29, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Brazil.
> 
> 5,017 deaths.
> 
> ...


Die?


----------



## Azrael (Apr 29, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Is Ireland doing significantly better than the UK? Doesn't look like it to me.
> View attachment 209673
> 
> 
> ...


Comparisons to be made with care, as ever. Is that chart for hospital deaths in the UK?

I don't think anyone's holding Dublin's response up there with Taiwan's, South Korea's or New Zealand's. The entire West failed to treat Covid-19 with the seriousness due a SARS virus. It does however illustrate that, even by its own seriously flawed terms, Britain's "just repurpose the flu plan" response was far worse than it need have been.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 29, 2020)

magneze said:


> I wouldn't be surprised if, as a result, the UK just stays in lockdown for a while until some country works out how to come out with success..


Being optimistic, testing is finally ramping up a bit and new cases are level at around 4,000 a day with lots more tests happening. Being very optimistic and assuming that ppe provisions are improving and test and trace mechanisms are finally being worked on in earnest, with all that combined, we are, perhaps, about where Germany was three weeks ago.

But yeah, I think you're right. I've thought that for weeks. Let others make the mistakes and pretend if need be that somehow the '5 points' haven't been met until such a time as they see others working.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 29, 2020)

I would prefer UK goes all out for suppression now, I don't fancy a second run at lockdown even if it was possibly regional rather than national. But with four thousand new cases identified a day presently, I think we are some way from easing restrictions.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 29, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I would prefer UK goes all out for suppression now, I don't fancy a second run at lockdown even if it was possibly regional rather than national. But with four thousand new cases identified a day presently, I think we are some way from easing restrictions.


I'd give it at least a week at much higher testing levels and see where we are then. That number isn't all that meaningful at the moment.


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 29, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I would prefer UK goes all out for suppression now, I don't fancy a second run at lockdown even if it was possibly regional rather than national. But with four thousand new cases identified a day presently, I think we are some way from easing restrictions.


when i spoke to my supervisor yesterday he said face to face teaching may not be resumed before november. there are academic libraries extending loans to the end of september. preparations are being made to keep this going to six more months. it might be less than that. but i'm not expecting to be back at work before july.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 29, 2020)

My German is a bit rusty but current news is all pretty much in German, Google Translate is a help. 

A lot of German politicians and scientists are urging caution with respect of relaxing restrictions [1] 

They are looking into how many unreported cases there are and carrying out studies into immunity of people who have recovered from covid-19 [2] including how many people present with antibodies. They discovered that 15% of the population of a test town had been infected by the virus some with mild cases and some with no symptoms at all. 

[1] 29/04/2020 Spahn und Scholz plädieren für Lockerung in kleinen Schritten

[2] 28/04/2020 Covid-19 - Wie hoch die Dunkelziffer bei den Coronavirus-Infektionen ist


[3] 


> The number of test capacities has also increased - now to more than 860,000 per week. That means that almost twice as many people could be tested in Germany.
> ..
> A problem with the PCR tests is the funding, which is covered by the health insurance companies for those who are legally insured, but only if those affected also show symptoms. So far, the health insurers have not paid for people without symptoms. "Many people see this problem," said Wieler. He hopes "that a solution will be found in the near future".





> ..
> The Federal Ministry of Health has now presented a bundle of measures to create the basis for more tests. The health insurance companies should cover the costs - also for screening for nurses and those in need of care, as Federal Health Minister Jens Spahn announced.



[3] 29/04/2020 Coronavirus: 40 Prozent mehr Tests in Deutschland


----------



## weltweit (Apr 29, 2020)

Germany. (Translated from Tagesspiegel.de) 


> Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn (CDU) has spoken out for caution in easing the restrictions imposed by the corona pandemic. That is why it is right to take small steps forward instead of risking a big step backwards, Spahn wrote in a guest post for the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”. Finance minister Olaf Scholz (SPD) also warned of too rapid easing. I know how stressful these restrictions are for all of us. But they were successful - we shouldn't gamble away this success now, ”said Scholz of the“ Passauer Neue Presse ”.





> ..
> The four large, non-university research institutions in Germany have presented a two-phase model for the social handling of the coronavirus pandemic. In the first phase, new infections should be contained so that the contacts can be traced. The second phase is followed by an adaptive strategy based on low numbers of new infections (more in the news blog below).



from 29/04/2020 Spahn und Scholz plädieren für Lockerung in kleinen Schritten


----------



## weltweit (Apr 29, 2020)

One more from the source above 


> The German government is expecting the worst post-war recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic. The gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to collapse by 6.3 percent after adjustment for prices, according to the spring forecast.



I think if they manage only a 6.3% reduction in GDP they are doing pretty well.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 29, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Comparisons to be made with care, as ever. Is that chart for hospital deaths in the UK?
> 
> I don't think anyone's holding Dublin's response up there with Taiwan's, South Korea's or New Zealand's. The entire West failed to treat Covid-19 with the seriousness due a SARS virus. It does however illustrate that, even by its own seriously flawed terms, Britain's "just repurpose the flu plan" response was far worse than it need have been.


No it doesn't.
There's no clear evidence of any significant difference in effectiveness between Ireland's response and the UK's.


----------



## RTWL (Apr 29, 2020)

JimW said:


> Sorry if this has been posted, not following this thread, but perhaps a sign of the end times - after a bit of an Internet rabbit hole ended up at the Daily Express (archaeology story, honest) to find this: Coronavirus shock claim: Noam Chomsky reveals 'true culprit' behind COVID-19 crisis Approving long quotes of Chomsky blaming it all on capitalism.



A bit more of Chomsky's analysis here back from the 17th.... contains Trump-Hitler comparisons lol .... also a bit of admiration for the Trump administration setup for managing to be just so fu*king evil :


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 29, 2020)

Is there any truth to the claim that italy doesn't count care homes? I'm sure I've seen care home figures in Italy's figures before tbh. Thought it was just spain that hadn't started doing it.


----------



## 20Bees (Apr 30, 2020)

Did anyone watch BBC News Hard Talk at 00.30, grilling the Chinese ambassador? I only saw the last few minutes - wonder if it’s on iPlayer


----------



## sheothebudworths (Apr 30, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Is there any truth to the claim that italy doesn't count care homes? I'm sure I've seen care home figures in Italy's figures before tbh. Thought it was just spain that hadn't started doing it.



In the new UK all-settings figures today, Italy was defo listed as another who has been including all of those numbers too. Spain was the major European country who might not be (but might be, too).


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 30, 2020)

Pickman's model said:


> when i spoke to my supervisor yesterday he said face to face teaching may not be resumed before november. there are academic libraries extending loans to the end of september. preparations are being made to keep this going to six more months. it might be less than that. but i'm not expecting to be back at work before july.



Trinity college Dublin not opening til next January. Other Irish universities and colleges are following suit. University lecturers have been told to pass every student regardless of whether students have completed course work.


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 30, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Is Ireland doing significantly better than the UK? Doesn't look like it to me.
> View attachment 209673
> 
> 
> ...








__





						Coronavirus live updates: News & Advice
					

The latest news and updates on the coronavirus outbreak from China and across the globe. Coronavirus tracker, spread of Wuhan Coronavirus in real time.




					www.appurse.com
				




Yeah Ireland is doing a lot better than the UK. but still numbers are higher than one might think considering lockdown started a week before the UK. 
Biggest problem here has been nursing and care homes. Very high death rates in these homes. 
Still we  are not becoming complacent,  hopefully..


----------



## weltweit (Apr 30, 2020)

Clinical trials for a treatment, Remdesivir, seem to show confusing results:

The most recent trial done in the USA by NIH suggests Remdesivir can shorten the recovery time in hospitalised patients, while the second earlier trial reported in the Lancet, suggests no effect.

from 29/04/2020 NIH clinical trial shows Remdesivir accelerates recovery from advanced COVID-19

NIH clinical trial shows Remdesivir accelerates recovery from advanced COVID-19


> Hospitalized patients with advanced COVID-19 and lung involvement who received remdesivir recovered faster than similar patients who received placebo, according to a preliminary data analysis from a randomized, controlled trial involving 1063 patients, which began on February 21. The trial (known as the Adaptive COVID-19 Treatment Trial, or ACTT), sponsored by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health, is the first clinical trial launched in the United States to evaluate an experimental treatment for COVID-19.



All well and good, but an earlier trial below found different things

from 29/04/2020 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31022-9/fulltext

Remdesivir in adults with severe COVID-19: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multicentre trial


> Findings
> Between Feb 6, 2020, and March 12, 2020, 237 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned         to a treatment group (158 to remdesivir and 79 to placebo); one patient in the placebo         group who withdrew after randomisation was not included in the ITT population. Remdesivir         use was not associated with a difference in time to clinical improvement (hazard ratio         1·23 [95% CI 0·87–1·75]). Although not statistically significant, patients receiving         remdesivir had a numerically faster time to clinical improvement than those





> receiving         placebo among patients with symptom duration of 10 days or less (hazard ratio 1·52         [0·95–2·43]). Adverse events were reported in 102 (66%) of 155 remdesivir recipients         versus 50 (64%) of 78 placebo recipients. Remdesivir was stopped early because of         adverse events in 18 (12%) patients versus four (5%) patients who stopped placebo         early.
> ..
> Interpretation
> In this study of adult patients admitted to hospital for severe COVID-19, remdesivir         was not associated with statistically significant clinical benefits. However, the         numerical reduction in time to clinical improvement in those treated earlier requires         confirmation in larger studies.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 30, 2020)

It does look like this post of mine on Remdesivir might have been premature:
Posted on internet on 23/04/2020 Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more


----------



## weltweit (Apr 30, 2020)

It looks like there may be a consensus that Remdesivir may offer some level of treatment:

from 29/04/2020 Drug has 'clear-cut' power to fight coronavirus


> There is "clear-cut" evidence that a drug can help people recover from the coronavirus, say US officials.
> 
> Remdesivir cut the duration of symptoms from 15 days down to 11 in clinical trial at hospitals around the world.





> The full details have not been published, but experts said it would be a "fantastic result" if confirmed, but not a "magic bullet" for the disease.
> ..
> Remdesivir was originally developed as an Ebola treatment. It is an antiviral and works by attacking an enzyme that a virus needs in order to replicate inside our cells.
> ..





> Dr Anthony Fauci who runs the NIAID said: "The data shows remdesivir has a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery."
> ..
> Prof Peter Horby, from the University of Oxford, is running the world's largest trial of Covid-19 drugs. He said: "We need to see the full results, but if confirmed this would be a fantastic result and great news for the fight against Covid-19.



and

From Gilead, the manufacturer of Remdesivir:

from 29/04/2020 Gilead Announces Results From Phase 3 Trial of Investigational Antiviral Remdesivir in Patients With Severe COVID-19


more from 29/04/2020 Remdesivir: early findings on experimental coronavirus drug offer 'quite good news'


----------



## teuchter (Apr 30, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Your link shows numbers at the moment, but the UK is further into the process than Ireland is. Look at the graph I posted. If you take numbers measured the same number of days from the first death, the UK has approximately 10 times Ireland's deaths, but it's also got about 10 times the population. It's not doing a lot better than the UK at all, unless you disagree about the start date for the measurements.


----------



## Aladdin (Apr 30, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Your link shows numbers at the moment, but the UK is further into the process than Ireland is. Look at the graph I posted. If you take numbers measured the same number of days from the first death, the UK has approximately 10 times Ireland's deaths, but it's also got about 10 times the population. It's not doing a lot better than the UK at all, unless you disagree about the start date for the measurements.




Honestly? I dont really know what the graph shows because on the phone it is hard to read. Most deaths in Ireland have been in nursing homes and care homes. These are all recorded here.   Unlike the UK who are only now including those deaths.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 30, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> Honestly? I dont really know what the graph shows because on the phone it is hard to read. Most deaths in Ireland have been in nursing homes and care homes. These are all recorded here.   Unlike the UK who are only now including those deaths.


If it's the case that we are confident Ireland's count is the full count, and the UK's is significantly lower than the real number, then that would make a difference. Still though, Ireland's numbers are closer to the UK's than they are to say Germany.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 30, 2020)

weltweit 's posts above (previous page) about Remdesivir trials prompted me to remember to link to this piece by Hannah Devlin, the Guardian's science correspondent. It's from Saturday.

It's a general, accessible article surveying progress of and prospects for anti-Covid-19 vaccines and trials.
Well worth a read (IMO) for those not too up-to-speed at the moment about vaccines, and who'd like something not too technical!  
(And who'd maybe like something friendly for non-scientists  )


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> It looks like there may be a consensus that Remdesivir may offer some level of treatment:
> 
> from 29/04/2020 Drug has 'clear-cut' power to fight coronavirus
> 
> ...



I'm not a scientist and clearly Faucci is but I'm more than a little surprised at his enthusiasm about this.  Yes there are some optimistic signs but the results still look within a margin of error for a study of 1000 people.  Also what does it actually mean?  Does it means that some people who would very likely recover anyway will recover a bit quicker or does it mean it will save lives?

It seems all very hazy and if Trump had said it I wouldn't even bother to comment on it.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 30, 2020)

The reports are confusing, the Chinese trial especially so and that WHO seem to have leaked and then removed a posting that said Remdesivir had no effect. I suppose I could wait and see what WHO says now? That might be a good plan.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The reports are confusing, the Chinese trial especially so and that WHO seem to have leaked and then removed a posting that said Remdesivir had no effect. I suppose I could wait and see what WHO says now? That might be a good plan.



Well Gilead appears to be an american company.  Drug was apparently developed for Ebola so potentially still under patent?  Might explain a little bit more about the differing attitudes towards it from both China and the US.  As you say, probably best to wait for the WHO.

Pertaining to nothing in particular but one of my school friends is a scientist with GSK.  I spoke with him after GSK announced they would team up with another company to help produce the vaccine.  My mate just laughed and at pointed at the spike in their share price the next day.  Make of that what you will.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 30, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I'm not a scientist and clearly Faucci is but I'm more than a little surprised at his enthusiasm about this.  Yes there are some optimistic signs but the results still look within a margin of error for a study of 1000 people.  Also what does it actually mean?  Does it means that some people who would very likely recover anyway will recover a bit quicker or does it mean it will save lives?
> 
> It seems all very hazy and if Trump had said it I wouldn't even bother to comment on it.


Smacks of a vested interest, tbh. The results are not exactly Wow and you can't discount the study that found no benefit here either - assuming they were both conducted fairly, you have to add the two studies together and look at that. 

Do enough studies and you can get to cherry-pick one that gives you the result you want, as famously happened with two studies on smoking that found no link to lung cancer.


----------



## David Clapson (Apr 30, 2020)

The virus has killed more Americans than the Vietnam war COVID-19 has now killed more Americans than the Vietnam War


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 30, 2020)

Portugal next steps : 


> On May 4, shops of up to 200 square meters will open, the small street market that includes bookstores, ready-to-wear stores, hairdressers, barbers, shoe stores and car stands.
> Public services are also reopened with the exception of citizen shops. Fifteen days later, on May 18, the Government plans to reopen stores up to 400 square meters. Cafes and restaurants are included in this phase.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 30, 2020)

David Clapson said:


> The virus has killed more Americans than the Vietnam war COVID-19 has now killed more Americans than the Vietnam War


I find these comparisons a bit silly.
So what? What does the comparison actually mean or tell us?


----------



## teuchter (Apr 30, 2020)

Also... will I get into trouble for asking if there's any statistical analysis on death rates using a years-of-life-lost basis?

I know that as soon as you ask that, people will accuse you of saying that elderly people don't matter, or suchlike, but there's quite a difference between a large number of people dying, who would have been likely to die within the next year or so, and a large number of people dying who have most of their lives ahead of them.

This at least seems relevant if you are going to start comparing death rates between covid-19 and wars.

The comparisons made between the numbers killed by Spanish Flu and WW1 seem more meaningful to me, because of the age profile of each was similar to some extent.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 30, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Also... will I get into trouble for asking if there's any statistical analysis on death rates using a years-of-life-lost basis?
> 
> I know that as soon as you ask that, people will accuse you of saying that elderly people don't matter, or suchlike, but there's quite a difference between a large number of people dying, who would have been likely to die within the next year or so, and a large number of people dying who have most of their lives ahead of them.
> 
> ...



I get you on your central point about comparisons.  We had the one about more deaths in London than the blitz yesterday and that was equally odd.  Thing is though I'm not sure how you would go about calculating how long someone would have lived for had it not been for the covid.  Average life expectancy?


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 30, 2020)

It's kind of pointless even attempting something like that because everyone is going to die tbh.


----------



## LDC (Apr 30, 2020)

teuchter said:


> I find these comparisons a bit silly.
> So what? What does the comparison actually mean or tell us?



It's just a comparison to give people some context and idea of the scale compared to historical events they know about. Maybe a bit of media worthy shock value. Nothing more than that. FWIW I find the comparisons interesting.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 30, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I get you on your central point about comparisons.  We had the one about more deaths in London than the blitz yesterday and that was equally odd.  Thing is though I'm not sure how you would go about calculating how long someone would have lived for had it not been for the covid.  Average life expectancy?


There was that analysis fairly early on, which may no longer stand, that reckoned the probability of anyone dying from Covid was matched pretty well with the probability of them dying within the next 12 months, or something like that.


----------



## LDC (Apr 30, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I get you on your central point about comparisons.  We had the one about more deaths in London than the blitz yesterday and that was equally odd.  Thing is though I'm not sure how you would go about calculating how long someone would have lived for had it not been for the covid.  Average life expectancy?



Early on I did read some article that tried to quantify that, I'll see if I can dig it out. Used some measurement of years of life and cost maths kind of thing.


----------



## Combustible (Apr 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The reports are confusing, the Chinese trial especially so and that WHO seem to have leaked and then removed a posting that said Remdesivir had no effect. I suppose I could wait and see what WHO says now? That might be a good plan.


I don't think the Chinese trial said there is no effect, it said that no statistically significant benefits were seen. It can just mean that there were too few participants in the trial to judge whether there are benefits. The new trial has a larger number of participants than the Chinese trial (1000 vs 200), which from what I gather stopped recruiting new participants because of the massive drop of cases in Hubei.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 30, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> It's just a comparison to give people some context and idea of the scale compared to historical events they know about. Maybe a bit of media worthy shock value. Nothing more than that. FWIW I find the comparisons interesting.


50,000 Americans in Vietnam War over a period of 20 years.
2-4 million people killed in Vietnam War over a period of 20 years.
50,000 Americans killed by Covid in 2-3 months.
650,000 Americans die from heart disease every year.

These are more interesting to ponder than simply stating the two 50,000 numbers without context.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 30, 2020)

Combustible said:


> I don't think the Chinese trial said there is no effect, it said that no statistically significant benefits were seen. It can just mean that there were too few participants in the trial to judge whether there are benefits. The new trial has a larger number of participants than the Chinese trial (1000 vs 200), which from what I gather stopped recruiting new participants because of the massive drop of cases in Hubei.


Hi Combustible, I meant the leaked paper by the WHO which seemed to say that the treatment had no effect, I don't know now why I even posted about it as it was a draft and removed shortly after being posted. The writeup of the Chinese trial I found a bit more tricky to understand though. The American trial writeup has much more easy to read summaries and conclusions etc so much more friendly for a non scientist to read. 

I understand Remdesivir hasn't yet been approved for treatment of anything - so there may be some hurdles in front of it being used for covid-19 even given the two trials mentioned.


----------



## Supine (Apr 30, 2020)

Remdesivir is undergoing lots of trials at the moment including in the U.K.  

I believe the main problem with the first China trial was that it was stopped early so can possible be discounted. There is still a lot of hope it will be shown to significantly improve patient prospects in hospital. Lots more data should be available next month.


----------



## Doodler (Apr 30, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I get you on your central point about comparisons.  We had the one about more deaths in London than the blitz yesterday and that was equally odd.  Thing is though I'm not sure how you would go about calculating how long someone would have lived for had it not been for the covid.  Average life expectancy?



There are actuarial formulae for estimating the average life expectancy of someone of a given age, taking into account whether they're male or female, their lifestyle etc. Insurance companies put very simple versions of these online for people to cheer themselves up with.

It's not calculated by just subtracting someone's age from overall average life expectancy. If average life expectancy for men is 80 and you're 78, you're likely to live longer than another 2 years as you've already avoided the things that could have killed you earlier: childhood illness, playing on railway lines, drink driving, smoking and so on.


----------



## Mation (Apr 30, 2020)

.


----------



## Mation (Apr 30, 2020)

I salute you, Silvia Ontivero ❤❤









						Coronavirus: My son's asthmatic killer doesn't deserve to die in jail
					

A mother in Argentina says she fears the asthmatic killer will not survive Covid-19 in jail.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				





> A woman in Argentina has written to authorities to support the release of her son's killer from prison during the coronavirus pandemic, recognising that his asthma puts him at risk


----------



## weltweit (Apr 30, 2020)

Mation said:


> I salute you, Silvia Ontivero ❤❤


Not sure I would have been so generous, fair play to her.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 30, 2020)

Doodler said:


> There are actuarial formulae for estimating the average life expectancy of someone of a given age, taking into account whether they're male or female, their lifestyle etc. Insurance companies put very simple versions of these online for people to cheer themselves up with.
> 
> It's not calculated by just subtracting someone's age from overall average life expectancy. If average life expectancy for men is 80 and you're 78, you're likely to live longer than another 2 years as you've already avoided the things that could have killed you earlier: childhood illness, playing on railway lines, drink driving, smoking and so on.



Yeah you can google charts showing life expectancy from different ages as opposed to life expectancy from birth. ETA: There are also average 'good years' left charts, meaning years left with reasonable health.

Even that's not enough, though. You also have to take into account the fact that people with underlying conditions are more vulnerable.

However, with all those caveats, 70 per cent of UK c19 deaths are over 75s, as detailed here. The same proportion as in all deaths over the period, which actually could be a way in to estimating years lost a bit more accurately. But the overall point is clearly valid wrt comparisons with war.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 30, 2020)

South Korea

from 30/04/2020 How South Korean life changed to contain the virus


> South Korea has recorded its first day with no locally transmitted cases of Covid-19 since the middle of February.
> ..
> It's a major milestone for a country that was once among the world's biggest virus hotspots, but it comes after significant efforts - and remarkably, without a total lockdown.



and

from 30/04/2020 South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'


> South Korea says recovered coronavirus patients who tested positive again did not relapse: Tests picked up 'dead virus fragments'
> ..
> South Korea announced in early April that some patients who had recovered from and tested negative for the virus later tested positive, suggesting that the virus could reactivate or that patients could be reinfected. The country has recorded this happening in 263 patients, The Korea Herald reported.





> But the country's infectious-disease experts said on Thursday that the positive test results were likely caused by flaws in the testing process, where the tests picked up remnants of the virus without detecting whether the person was still infected, The Herald reported.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 30, 2020)

I cannot praise South Korea's response enough. Not only did they act early like Taiwan and Singapore, but they detected, isolated and crushed a major outbreak. If they succeed in eliminating the virus from the general population, it can only add to the pressure for other countries to do likewise.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 30, 2020)

I agree, SK have been really effective and I only wish we had been more similar to them rather than approaching covid-19 in the muddled way we did. We could still take up their methods on gradually emerging from the first phase and the announced hiring of contact tracers is a suggestion we may be taking things more seriously in that regard.


----------



## Azrael (Apr 30, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I agree, SK have been really effective and I only wish we had been more similar to them rather than approaching covid-19 in the muddled way we did. We could still take up their methods on gradually emerging from the first phase and the announced hiring of contact tracers is a suggestion we may be taking things more seriously in that regard.


According to the _Spectator_ (in a story clearly heavily briefed by Downing St.) that's exactly what Whitehall's doing. Just confirms what I've assumed since Hancock made a big deal of his pet contact tracing app, an assumption I've grown more confident in as explicit suppression policies were released by Scotland and Wales without any serious opposition from London (indeed, Raab even praised Scotland's the other day).

I fully expect them to screw up along the way -- as this thorough investigation shows, S.K.'s multifaceted suppression system is a thing of wonder, that can't just be thrown together overnight -- but at least the intent's now there. Bute House has even done the full Ardern and committed to eliminating the virus.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 30, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Bute House


What's this "Bute House" thing? I've never heard anyone go on about "Bute House". I had to google it. Ok, it's something similar to Downing St in principle. But I have never heard anyone using it in this way, or even heard of it. And I'm Scottish. Is this a just a personal affectation or have I not been paying attention for the past 20 years?


----------



## Anju (Apr 30, 2020)

Some interesting detail on Denmark' and China's approach to getting kids back to primary school.


Classes split into two groups, so around 10 per class based on their average class size. Staggered start times and breaks. Extra hand washing facilities installed and kids washing hands 8 times a day. Self marking as teachers can't take handle their exercise books.  China checking staff and pupils temperatures on arrival.

Going to be difficult to replicate such measures in Britain with our class sizes, lack of extra space and half arsed leadership from Johnson and team.

Reopening schools: lessons from Denmark and China


----------



## 2hats (Apr 30, 2020)

Anju said:


> Some interesting detail on Denmark' and China's approach to getting kids back to primary school.


Denmark has already seen the reproduction number climb in the last two weeks, which they attribute as largely down to schools re-opening. From 'Germany postpones decision on reopening schools - Merkel urges caution and Danish authorities note spike in virus reproduction rate since pupils returned to class' in the FT:



> Danish authorities on Thursday said the reproduction rate for coronavirus had risen significantly since the Scandinavian country started reopening schools and kindergartens two weeks ago.
> 
> The reproduction rate — which signifies how many people on average are infected by somebody with the virus — rose from 0.6 on April 14 to 0.9 last week, Denmark's Serum Institute said. Anything below 1 means the spread of infection is decreasing but its increase potentially limits Denmark's room for manoeuvre.


----------



## Anju (Apr 30, 2020)

2hats said:


> Denmark has already seen the reproduction number climb in the last two weeks, which they attribute as largely down to schools re-opening. From 'Germany postpones decision on reopening schools - Merkel urges caution and Danish authorities note spike in virus reproduction rate since pupils returned to class' in the FT:



Wow, 

This is how it's being spun in the guardian. Basically all good in Denmark and Czech Republic. No mention of the R number. 



> .“There are no signs at all that the partial reopening has caused a bigger spread of infection,” said Christian Wejse, a scientist at the department of infectious diseases at Aarhus University. “At least there is no indication that we are heading into another wave. That has been the concern, but I can’t see that at all.”


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 1, 2020)

I applaud Ireland for its reporting of the situation. A really well laid-out summary of a great many things you would want to know to get a good grip on what's happened there.

Gov.ie - Latest updates on COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

The stats on healthcare workers are interesting given the mortality rate reported - 0.1 %. It's a smallish sample of 5,000, but not a tiny one, and gives an indication of the mortality rate among a relatively healthy group of working-age people. Three quarters are women, though, which may help in terms of survival rates, and the sample is very small really.

More than half their deaths in care homes is a stat that stands out. But has to be stressed that this is in a context in which far fewer people have died in hospital than here.

It even includes the minutes from the national emergency committee set up to handle policy and expert advice - full minutes from all their meetings right back to January. At the equivalent here in the UK, we're not even allowed to know who was there, let alone what was said.


----------



## weltweit (May 1, 2020)

Azrael said:


> According to the _Spectator_ (in a story clearly heavily briefed by Downing St.) that's exactly what Whitehall's doing. Just confirms what I've assumed since Hancock made a big deal of his pet contact tracing app, an assumption I've grown more confident in as explicit suppression policies were released by Scotland and Wales without any serious opposition from London (indeed, Raab even praised Scotland's the other day).


I am not so sure about the Gov app, I think it is still a centralised one which I am slightly concerned about, also this business of keeping Bluetooth on, always has killed my battery life, I usually have BT off always. 



Azrael said:


> I fully expect them to screw up along the way -- as this thorough investigation shows, S.K.'s multifaceted suppression system is a thing of wonder, that can't just be thrown together overnight -- but at least the intent's now there. Bute House has even done the full Ardern and committed to eliminating the virus.


Always better to set ambitious goals .. imo


----------



## weltweit (May 1, 2020)

Azrael said:


> I fully expect them to screw up along the way -- as this thorough investigation shows, S.K.'s multifaceted suppression system is a thing of wonder,  ..


That is probably the most detailed account of SK's system I have read. Very interesting, thanks for posting that link!


----------



## Azrael (May 1, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I am not so sure about the Gov app, I think it is still a centralised one which I am slightly concerned about, also this business of keeping Bluetooth on, always has killed my battery life, I usually have BT off always.
> 
> 
> Always better to set ambitious goals .. imo


Yes, I can't stand Whitehall's centralization obsession. They are talking about trialing their system in a few islands and remote regions, which is something, but this should be a local enterprise, led by local public health teams (of the kind we had before they were abolished).


----------



## teuchter (May 1, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I applaud Ireland for its reporting of the situation. A really well laid-out summary of a great many things you would want to know to get a good grip on what's happened there.
> 
> Gov.ie - Latest updates on COVID-19 (Coronavirus)
> 
> ...



Here is how the stats look to me. Take mid april (18th), which is when we seem to think we have reasonable care home figures up until, and also represents us at a similar point to which Ireland is at now, as they are about 12 days behind us, counting from first death.

UK: About 15,000 deaths, plus 3,700 care home deaths.
Ireland: about 1200 deaths, half of which in care homes, so about 600.

UK population 66M. Ireland population 5M.

UK: Overall, 283 deaths per M. (227 non-care home deaths per M, 56 care home deaths per M)
Ireland: Overall, 240 deaths per M. (120 non-care home deaths per M, 120 care home deaths per M.)

Like I said before it just doesn't appear that the picture is significantly better in Ireland. Overall death rate about the same. They appear to be doing loads worse than us in terms of care home deaths, and the reverse is true for non care home deaths.

Happy for my numbers to be corrected.


----------



## Cid (May 1, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I applaud Ireland for its reporting of the situation. A really well laid-out summary of a great many things you would want to know to get a good grip on what's happened there.
> 
> Gov.ie - Latest updates on COVID-19 (Coronavirus)
> 
> ...




That’s a percentage of diagnosed healthcare workers though. So doesn’t tell you much (unless the other ~95,000 all tested negative).


----------



## teqniq (May 1, 2020)

Armed protestors storm Michigan Capitol as politicians wearing bulletproof vests vote on lifting lockdown
					

Senator Sylvia Santana, a Democrat, wore the protective gear to work on Thursday to protect herself




					www.independent.co.uk
				






> Michigan politicians have decided to don bulletproof vests when going to work as armed protesters defy lockdown orders.
> State Senator Dayna Polehanki, a Democrat, revealed the protective decision some of her colleagues were making when sharing a picture of protesters on Twitter on Thursday.
> In the picture, multiple men in the Michigan State Capitol building were armed with guns.
> She wrote: "Directly above me, men with rifles yelling at us. Some of my colleagues who own bulletproof vests are wearing them. I have never appreciated our Sergeants-at-Arms more than today."
> When contacted by _The Independent_, the senator shared a picture of her colleague Senator Sylvia Santana, a Democrat, wearing a bulletproof vest and face mask while working....


 

As someone said on twitter to paraphrase 'imagine if the protestorts had been brown and then imagine the police reaction' They largely seem to be Trump supporters, gun nuts, anti-vaxers/conspiracy types, and predominantly white


----------



## zahir (May 1, 2020)

100,000 crew members stranded on cruise ships









						‘No one comes': the cruise ship crews cast adrift by coronavirus
					

From the Galapagos to Dubai, over 100,000 crew have been left marooned amid squabbles over who is responsible for their welfare




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## weltweit (May 1, 2020)

Hopefully the US gun nuts will simply be charged and sent to prison. 

I have no idea what they wanted to achieve.


----------



## teqniq (May 1, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hopefully the US gun nuts will simply be charged and sent to prison.
> 
> I have no idea what they wanted to achieve.


They are protesting lockdown and using intimidation as a tactic.



> A spokesperson with the Michigan police told NBC News protesters are legally allowed to carry guns in Michigan as long as it's done with "lawful intent" and the weapon is visible.
> 
> Hundreds of protesters have gathered inside and outside of the Capitol on Thursday to protest stay-at-home measures Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, put in place in March. The governor faced backlash after she extended the stay-at-home order until 15 May.



the fucking state of this


----------



## weltweit (May 1, 2020)

teqniq legally allowed and lawful intent - they really are on a different planet? Why would they need to be carrying guns to make a protest? unless they intended to use the guns somehow .. I refer the gent to my earlier answer, they are loonies!


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 1, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Here is how the stats look to me. Take mid april (18th), which is when we seem to think we have reasonable care home figures up until, and also represents us at a similar point to which Ireland is at now, as they are about 12 days behind us, counting from first death.
> 
> UK: About 15,000 deaths, plus 3,700 care home deaths.
> Ireland: about 1200 deaths, half of which in care homes, so about 600.
> ...


Going to set aside the care home issue - I don't know why Ireland has such a high %age, may be a transfer of the virus from hospitals due to system failure like here, or perhaps due to a different policy wrt taking care home residents to hospital, dunno.

But I think we now have to be careful about comparing from 'time since first death', especially where the two places you're comparing are very different sizes - a smaller place will, on average, detect its first death later than a larger place. But anyway, it's becoming less and less relevant. Time since lockdown is more relevant, and even that's being superseded now by measures of infection rates post-lockdown, reflecting things like proper ppe provision/use and proper infection control protocols within the care system. 

There isn't compelling evidence that Ireland is behind the UK on its curve. Ireland's been testing much more than the UK (surprise, surprise) and it's been finding fewer new cases for a while now. Its peak death week was perhaps a week later than the UK's peak death week, and like the UK, it has remained on an uneasily high plateau since then, but it appears to have its infection rate under some kind of control.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 1, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Going to set aside the care home issue - I don't know why Ireland has such a high %age, may be a transfer of the virus from hospitals due to system failure like here, or perhaps due to a different policy wrt taking care home residents to hospital, dunno.



Not sure Ireland has a high percentage of care home deaths, I've read reports of 50% for other European countries, and IIRC Scotland is reporting 35% so far, I expect we will end-up around the 50% mark too.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 1, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Not sure Ireland has a high percentage of care home deaths, I've read reports of 50% for other European countries, and IIRC Scotland is reporting 35% so far, I expect we will end-up around the 50% mark too.


Yes, that's also possible. Comparing stats is fraught, basically. It could just be that Ireland's stats are more reliable/honest than the UK's stats at the moment.

On the face of it, given Ireland has been way more transparent about its response than the UK, I'd trust Ireland's reporting more than the UK's reporting.


----------



## Azrael (May 1, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yes, that's also possible. Comparing stats is fraught, basically. It could just be that Ireland's stats are more reliable/honest than the UK's stats at the moment.
> 
> On the face of it, given Ireland has been way more transparent about its response than the UK, I'd trust Ireland's reporting more than the UK's reporting.


Same. I wouldn't sugar-coat Ireland's experience, they've had a scandal in their care home infections, but crucially, it's recognized as a scandal. Across the Irish Sea it's relentless gaslighting.


----------



## Cid (May 1, 2020)

Ireland has significantly different demographics in any case; much higher percentage of people in rural areas (36.5% against 20.5%).


----------



## weltweit (May 1, 2020)

France

from 30/04/2020 France offers subsidy to tempt lockdown cyclists


> France is encouraging people to cycle to keep pollution levels low once lockdown restrictions end.
> 
> Under the €20 million (£17m; $21.7m) scheme, everyone will be eligible for bike repairs of up to €50 at registered mechanics.
> ..
> Nations worldwide are grappling with ways to change urban transport in light of the coronavirus.





> Emergency planners in London fear the Tube will not be able to cope once lockdown is lifted. A report seen by the BBC says that social distancing rules would reduce capacity to 15% of normal levels, and 12% on buses.
> 
> Moreover, pollution levels have dropped worldwide, and many are seeking to keep those levels low.



and

from 27/04/2020 French scientists to test theory nicotine helps body to combat coronavirus


> French researchers are preparing to launch a human trial to test whether nicotine can help the body to combat coronavirus.
> ..
> It follows a French study of public health data which appeared to show that smokers were 80 per cent less likely to catch the coronavirus than non-smokers of the same age and sex.


----------



## weltweit (May 1, 2020)

more France 

from 26/04/2020 From private testing for the rich to unrest in banlieues, coronavirus is highlighting France's stark divide


> Paris (CNN)While billionaires isolate themselves at luxurious hideaways on the Mediterranean during the coronavirus outbreak, residents in deprived and crowded areas of France are now facing a surge in deaths, along with unrest on the streets.
> 
> Hostilities erupted this week in Paris' northern banlieues (or suburbs) following accusations of police brutality and racism during the coronavirus outbreak. Footage on social media appeared to show cars and trash cans set alight on roads, protesters hurling firecrackers and police racing to control the crowds.


----------



## zahir (May 1, 2020)

Thread on transmission in a South Korean call centre.


----------



## weltweit (May 1, 2020)

zahir said:


> Thread on transmission in a South Korean call centre.



Looks pretty random to me the spread. I dare say a compressed call centre is an ideal spreading ground for the virus though, inevitable lots were going to get it. 

Do they even know it was spread by one person or more than one?


----------



## zahir (May 1, 2020)

This suggests that it was traced to one person but without finding where they had caught it.



> We described the epidemiologic characteristics of a COVID-19 outbreak centered in a call center in South Korea. We identified 97 confirmed COVID-19 case-patients in building X, indicating an attack rate of 8.5%. However, if we restrict our results the 11th floor, the attack rate was as high as 43.5%. This outbreak shows alarmingly that severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can be exceptionally contagious in crowded office settings such as a call center. The magnitude of the outbreak illustrates how a high-density work environment can become a high-risk site for the spread of COVID-19 and potentially a source of further transmission. Nearly all the case-patients were on one side of the building on 11th floor. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, the predecessor of SARS-CoV-2, exhibited multiple superspreading events in 2002 and 2003, in which a few persons infected others, resulting in many secondary cases. Despite considerable interaction between workers on different floors of building X in the elevators and lobby, spread of COVID-19 was limited almost exclusively to the 11th floor, which indicates that the duration of interaction (or contact) was likely the main facilitator for further spreading of SARS-CoV-2.





> The first case-patient with symptom onset, who worked in an office on the 10th floor (and reportedly never went to 11th floor), had onset of symptoms on February 22. The second case-patient with symptom onset, who worked at the call center on the 11th floor, had onset of symptoms on February 25. Residents and employees in building X had frequent contact in the lobby or elevators. We were not able to trace back the index case-patient to another cluster or an imported case.


----------



## Boru (May 1, 2020)

Irish government has released roadmap to ending restrictions.
Looks interesting and is on the understanding that the virus remains under control at each stage.. 
Seems to be good progression, timeline.. hope it can work..









						At a glance: What restrictions are likely to be lifted?
					

The Government road map on easing the Covid-19 restrictions is due to start on Monday - the plan sets out five stages for unlocking restrictions, at three-week intervals.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## Indeliblelink (May 1, 2020)

*How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?*








						Opinion | How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take? (Published 2020)
					

Experts say at least 18 months. Here’s how to shorten the timeline.



					www.nytimes.com


----------



## William of Walworth (May 1, 2020)

Indeliblelink said:


> *How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take?*
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I've just read this -- it's informative and clear.
Despite the many very pessimistic aspects, it's an excellent article.

It ends on the therapeutic drugs element,  which if this is correct, _could_ offer _some_ modest grounds for optimism --  even if (as likely) finding a reliable vaccine takes a huge amount of time.



			
				New York Times said:
			
		

> Therapeutic drugs, rather than vaccines, might likewise change the fight against Covid-19. The World Health Organization began a global search for drugs to treat Covid-19 patients in March. If successful, those drugs could lower the number of hospital admissions and help people recover faster from home while narrowing the infection window so fewer people catch the virus.
> Combine that with rigorous testing and contact tracing — where infected patients are identified and their recent contacts notified and quarantined — and the future starts looking a little brighter. So far, the United States is conducting fewer than half the number of tests required and we need to recruit more than 300,000 contact-tracers. But other countries have started reopening following exactly these steps.
> If all those things come together, life might return to normal long before a vaccine is ready to shoot into your arm.


----------



## weltweit (May 1, 2020)

Whitty was interesting on vaccines, he said we move forward in incremental steps rather than large leaps and the recent clinical trials into Remdesivir suggest that some progress in engaging with the virus which may be able to be built on by other treatments. 

Well I thought it was interesting.


----------



## Marty1 (May 2, 2020)

Amazon sack coronavirus whistleblower then try to smear him.









						Leaked Amazon Memo Details Plan to Smear Fired Warehouse Organizer: ‘He’s Not Smart or Articulate’
					

Written notes from the meeting, attended by CEO Jeff Bezos, detail Amazon's strategy to fight union organizing, as well as efforts to obtain COVID-19 tests and protective masks for workers.




					www.vice.com
				




AOC weighs in also citing Amazon as being racist.









						Leaked notes show Amazon execs' plans to smear fired warehouse worker
					

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez waded into the saga with Amazon Thursday night, saying its treatment of a fired warehouse employee is 'racist and classist'.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## yield (May 2, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Amazon sack coronavirus whistleblower then try to smear him.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What a joke. I'd love to boycott Amazon but they're so cheap and often have what I need!


----------



## editor (May 2, 2020)

This is something else









						'Once upon a virus': Chinese video takes swipe at US response to COVID-19
					

A Chinese state media outlet releases an animated video using Lego pieces to mock the US response to the novel coronavirus.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## Part-timah (May 2, 2020)

Boru said:


> Irish government has released roadmap to ending restrictions.
> Looks interesting and is on the understanding that the virus remains under control at each stage..
> Seems to be good progression, timeline.. hope it can work..
> 
> ...



Its fucking stupid to put dates on each stage. Its quite unlikely there will be a continual and steady improvement. Ffs.


----------



## sptme (May 2, 2020)

editor said:


> This is something else
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Well, it's a much better effort than the laughable propaganda they were putting out over the the Hongkong protest. But Trump does make an easy target.


----------



## Yossarian (May 2, 2020)

editor said:


> This is something else
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Satire produced by dictatorships is reminiscent of some of the terrible Onion imitations American conservatives have come up with. But it's a nice touch how the Lego pieces and figures are clearly knock-offs.


----------



## planetgeli (May 2, 2020)

One SIL in Barcelona has just missed the 'going out' time because she slept in (she always sleeps in). Apparently it's older people this morning and children later. Maybe dessiato or JuanTwoThree can confirm this.


----------



## JuanTwoThree (May 2, 2020)

Exercise is 6 till 10 for most people, old people from 10 to 12, then children. Sth else in the evening with adults again after 20.00









						Spain allocates time slots for outdoor activity
					

Health Minister Salvador Illa explains the conditions under which adults may go out for walks and other exercise starting this weekend




					english.elpais.com


----------



## clicker (May 2, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> Its fucking stupid to put dates on each stage. Its quite unlikely there will be a continual and steady improvement. Ffs.


The dates aren't set in stone. The govt have said they will only move onto each phase, if the virus isn't spreading due to ease of restrictions. It looks as though the time period between phase 1 and 2 for example  is long enough to show any effect possibly?


----------



## weltweit (May 2, 2020)

02/05/2020 US authorises Ebola drug for coronavirus treatment


> The US's Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has authorised emergency use of the Ebola drug remdesivir for treating the coronavirus.
> 
> The authorisation means the anti-viral drug can now be used on people who are hospitalised with severe Covid-19.
> 
> ...


----------



## zahir (May 2, 2020)

If this thread is accurate remdesivir doesn’t sound that promising.


----------



## elbows (May 2, 2020)

Remdesivir has certainly not demonstrated anything that made me excited about it, I am ignoring it for now.


----------



## teqniq (May 2, 2020)

teqniq said:


> They are protesting lockdown and using intimidation as a tactic.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


More on this, fucksake:


----------



## dessiato (May 2, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> One SIL in Barcelona has just missed the 'going out' time because she slept in (she always sleeps in). Apparently it's older people this morning and children later. Maybe dessiato or JuanTwoThree can confirm this.


A council has produced these guides


----------



## two sheds (May 2, 2020)

That's really sensible.


----------



## dessiato (May 2, 2020)

two sheds said:


> That's really sensible.


The distance for walking is wrong. I just checked. For people in the same household it's that they can walk together with masks.


----------



## two sheds (May 2, 2020)

Yes that makes sense. I like the different timings though. It would even help here, where there are only really a few walkers/runners/cyclists/horseriders. Essential for built up areas though you'd think.


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (May 2, 2020)

As part of easing restrictions France will mandate that faces are covered up when outdoors. French Muslim women are like, wtf!?!?!


----------



## two sheds (May 2, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> As part of easing restrictions France will mandate that faces are covered up when outdoors. French Muslim women are like, wtf!?!?!



It's god's sense of humour taking a poke at the racists


----------



## teqniq (May 2, 2020)

Fucking hell. I can imagine people wanting rid of him very soon.



			President's 'So what?' as 5,000 die sparks fury in Brazil


----------



## Part-timah (May 2, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Fucking hell. I can imagine people wanting rid of him very soon.
> 
> 
> 
> President's 'So what?' as 5,000 die sparks fury in Brazil



Brazil confirmed cases are rising exponentially. Give it 4 weeks and the deaths are going to weigh down on him.

It will be interesting to see if extreme public hostility can unseat a fascist during a pandemic.


----------



## two sheds (May 2, 2020)

I'm sure he'll blame it on someone.


----------



## weltweit (May 2, 2020)

Brazil 

from 01/05/2020 Coronavirus surge in Brazil brings coffin shortage, morgue chaos


> In Brazil's bustling Amazon city of Manaus, so many people have died within days in the coronavirus pandemic that coffins had to be stacked on top of each other in long, hastily dug trenches in a city cemetery. Some despairing relatives reluctantly chose cremation for loved ones to avoid burying them in those common graves.
> ..





> There also are signs in the much larger cities of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo that suggest authorities may not be able to handle a huge increase in the death toll. A field of fresh graves that was dismissed in April by far-right President Jair Bolsonaro as excessive has since been filled.
> 
> Latin America's grimmest scenes occurred last month in Ecuador's city of Guayaquil, where residents said they had to leave bodies on the street after morgues, cemeteries and funeral homes were overwhelmed.
> ..





> Many in Brazil fear the rising deaths will hit hardest in the favelas, the vast neighbourhoods of the poor that are well-known in Rio and Sao Paulo but that also exist in most big Brazilian cities and even in smaller ones.
> 
> "There is a great fear that uncontrolled contamination will happen there," said Panhozzi, whose group represents Brazil's 13,400 private funeral companies.


----------



## weltweit (May 2, 2020)

Oh and I see in Brazil they like to bury people in walls, like the Spanish, rather than in the ground as we do.


----------



## William of Walworth (May 2, 2020)

weltweit (and others) : Al-Jazeera English is a channel we've watched a fair bit, because it frequently includes well-described stories like the above --  from all over the world 

Here's a similarly horrendous story about Manaus from Tom Phillips (Latin American correspondent) in Friday's Guardian, including really hard-to-deal-with quotes from people


----------



## weltweit (May 2, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> Here's a similarly horrendous story about Manaus from Tom Phillips (Latin American correspondent) in Friday's Guardian, including really hard-to-deal-with quotes from people


Grim. And there are poorer countries in the world which will be even worse hit.


----------



## weltweit (May 2, 2020)

William of Walworth - I was watching a program about Asuncion (Paraguay) earlier, it might have been on the BBC. I decided to watch because I am sort of "internet buddies" with a photographer from there. It was about waste and recycling. Anyhow made me think how much I would like to visit it and him at some point.


----------



## weltweit (May 3, 2020)

Germany 

BBC news is saying Churches Mosques and other places of worship are being opened - but with strict rules including no singing.


----------



## pseudonarcissus (May 3, 2020)

Part-timah said:


> It will be interesting to see if extreme public hostility can unseat a fascist during a pandemic.


He's still running with about 30% approval rating. So far there doesn't seem to be much appetite for impeachment. What will be interesting will be his ongoing relationship with the military and, more importantly, the Centrão, the political block/corruption machine, that will do anything to be close to power. Currently he seems to have lost any chance of getting anything through congress as his allies are embarrassed. It could all change though, and we might have him for a second term 
His current attempt to put an ally in charge of the Federal Police seem to have dented his "anti-corruption" credentials, as it looks like it's to influence investigations into his sons.


----------



## pseudonarcissus (May 3, 2020)

this is the UK vs Brazil, deaths per million, since the date of the first reported death on a log/linear scale


----------



## frogwoman (May 3, 2020)

Brazil is almost certainly underreporting tho


----------



## Petcha (May 3, 2020)

pseudonarcissus said:


> View attachment 210528
> 
> this is the UK vs Brazil, deaths per million, since the date of the first reported death on a log/linear scale



This is completely by the by, but besides the revelation that almost every politician has read Mandela's book, prominently displayed behind them during interviews, is the utterly shit MS Office skills on display everywhere. The daily briefing slides are a visual disaster. And look at the state of that! ^^


----------



## pseudonarcissus (May 3, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Brazil is almost certainly underreporting tho


and the UK isn't? In the UK the truth will probably out eventually. Here, I suspect not.
Here, the public heath service has very limited capacity. The really weird thing is, 3 weeks ago, they were encouraging all the old folks to line up and cram into the health centres for flu jabs


----------



## Cid (May 3, 2020)

pseudonarcissus said:


> and the UK isn't? In the UK the truth will probably out eventually. Here, I suspect not.
> Here, the public heath service has very limited capacity. The really weird thing is, 3 weeks ago, they were encouraging all the old folks to line up and cram into the health centres for flu jabs



The uk is probably underreporting to a degree, though there is the recent change to help correct that. But generally there is probably a lot less space for things to slip through the gaps, and in the final analysis there will likely be decent records for academics to sort through.


----------



## Jay Park (May 3, 2020)

editor said:


> This is something else
> 
> 
> 
> ...



the last line is delivered well


----------



## Supine (May 4, 2020)




----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 4, 2020)

Form an orderly queue. 2 metre distance.


----------



## Doodler (May 4, 2020)

What's the state of play with serum therapy?

Is it not the most promising measure so far to mitigate the illness short of a vaccine? Each donor can yield enough antibodies for 2-3 people a time. They can go back and give more at a later date too, it's not a one off. Donating serum leaves donors feeling less tired than with blood (afaik you get your red blood cells infused back into you).

Yet all the excitement seems to revolve around possible drug therapies instead. Maybe it's because serum therapy can't be patented.


----------



## elbows (May 4, 2020)

Doodler said:


> What's the state of play with serum therapy?
> 
> Is it not the most promising measure so far to mitigate the illness short of a vaccine? Each donor can yield enough antibodies for 2-3 people a time. They can go back and give more at a later date too, it's not a one off. Donating serum leaves donors feeling less tired than with blood (afaik you get your red blood cells infused back into you).
> 
> Yet all the excitement seems to revolve around possible drug therapies instead. Maybe it's because serum therapy can't be patented.



Its had some attention recently because there are NHS trials and the likes of Hancock were keen to be photographed donating blood.

The NHS stuff:









						Plasma programme
					

We have now completed two major trials for convalescent plasma for people in hospital with coronavirus and no longer need convalescent plasma donors to come forward to donate.



					www.nhsbt.nhs.uk


----------



## Doodler (May 4, 2020)

elbows said:


> The likes of Hancock were keen to be photographed donating blood.



That threatens to do for serum therapy what Dee Dee Ramone might have done for blood transfusion.


----------



## weltweit (May 4, 2020)

Doodler said:


> What's the state of play with serum therapy?
> ..


I saw a report of an NHS bod who was collecting serum from willing donors but at that time there were fewer patients volunteering to take it.


----------



## sideboob (May 4, 2020)

Japan`s P.M. just announced that the state of emergency is extended till May 31.     
Another month off of work for me, the dog will be happy.


----------



## elbows (May 4, 2020)

An interesting article about differences between the north of the Netherlands and other parts of the country.









						Coronavirus: North Netherlands stopped following national advice. Here’s what happened
					

Starkly different outcomes in some regions of Europe indicate how better to fight the virus




					www.irishtimes.com
				




Different holiday timing, lack of carnivals, doing more testing not less, including a proper programme of screening healthcare workers seem to be the obvious differences.


----------



## frogwoman (May 4, 2020)

__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com
				




Jesus 

Tanzania hiding true number of COVID-19 deaths 

'Tanzanians, she said, had been shamed into not admitting they had caught Covid-19, which had been stigmatised by a government that said only weak people died from the illness. “They want to own the numbers and the statistics,” she said, adding that a lawyer who had urged more transparency had been arrested.

Ms Karume said people were referring to Covid-19 by a euphemism in Kiswahili, the national language, of “kutopumuwa”, which roughly translates as the “hard-to-breathe” disease.

She said she blamed Mr Magufuli for retreating to his home village of Chato on Lake Victoria. “He basically told us to go back to work and pray, then he got on his private presidential jet, went to Chato and left us to it.”'


----------



## frogwoman (May 4, 2020)

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at Take a tour — Hints and tips on getting more from your subscription — FT.com | Financial Times.
Subscribe to read | Financial Times

	As other African leaders reacted swiftly to coronavirus, closing their frontiers and preparing for lockdown, Mr Magufuli made a point of attending crowded church gatherings, telling people that the “satanic” virus could not survive in the bodies of the faithful.


----------



## Petcha (May 4, 2020)

Meanwhile New Zealand appears to have almost completely beaten it. Still not quite sure how they've managed that. But can we have their scientists and PM please?









						New Zealand records ZERO new coronavirus cases for the first time
					

The number of 'confirmed and probable' infections remained at 1,487 after one suspected case 'already known to us' tested positive, New Zealand's health ministry said.




					www.dailymail.co.uk


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 4, 2020)

Petcha said:


> Meanwhile New Zealand appears to have almost completely beaten it. Still not quite sure how they've managed that. But can we have their scientists and PM please?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Oh, it's not a mystery how they've done it. They decided to do it, for starters, and at the right time, when infection levels were still such that effective testing and tracing could be done - every single case has a case history attached to it indicating where it was caught, with only something like 2 per cent labelled unknown last time I checked. And they promptly closed borders, imposing quarantine on any new arrivals.


----------



## weltweit (May 4, 2020)

UK Gov seemed loath to shut down air travel seeming - to my mind at least - to prefer it to peter out as the virus became established in countries. I recall wondering at the time if Gov was scared of lawsuits from UK airlines and airports. NZ closed borders and airlines very easily and they had a much smaller issue than the UK. 

Border closing and a significant shutdown are key aspects to NZ's approach and reasons for their success. How much the UK could have done the same I am not sure.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 4, 2020)

weltweit said:


> UK Gov seemed loath to shut down air travel seeming - to my mind at least - to prefer it to peter out as the virus became established in countries. I recall wondering at the time if Gov was scared of lawsuits from UK airlines and airports. NZ closed borders and airlines very easily and they had a much smaller issue than the UK.
> 
> Border closing and a significant shutdown are key aspects to NZ's approach and reasons for their success. How much the UK could have done the same I am not sure.


UK could only have followed this kind of policy if it had acted at the same point in the infection curve, though, ie right at the start. That bird flew some time in early March.


----------



## teuchter (May 4, 2020)

New Zealand is also a tiny country and has no large cities and the cities it does have are pretty low density.

We could (and at least with hindsight should) have stopped all incoming flights at the same point in the curve but that would not necessarily have meant the same result.

Also, we don't just have flights arriving from elsewhere but large numbers of road vehicles, with drivers, coming in and out, which I assume NZ doesn't. We would have had to also shut down ferries and Eurotunnel, or have some system of exchanging lorry trailers or suchlike.

Edit to add some numbers:
Looks like there are about 30M passenger arrivals by plane into the UK per year.
12M by road through the port of Dover.
11M on Eurostar.
2.6M lorries (presumably each with driver) through the port of Dover
1.6M lorries (presumably each with driver) via Eurotunnel.

(btw if more of our freight arrived by rail, there would be hardly any issue to deal with. Far fewer drivers involved per tonne of freight, and drivers would change at the border anyway along with the locomotives meaning there would be no contact between them)


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 4, 2020)

teuchter said:


> New Zealand is also a tiny country and has no large cities and the cities it does have are pretty low density.
> 
> We could (and at least with hindsight should) have stopped all incoming flights at the same point in the curve but that would not necessarily have meant the same result.
> 
> Also, we don't just have flights arriving from elsewhere but large numbers of road vehicles, with drivers, coming in and out, which I assume NZ doesn't. We would have had to also shut down ferries and Eurotunnel, or have some system of exchanging lorry trailers or suchlike.


Realistically, I don't think a NZ-style response was possible here. What very clearly was possible was a Germany-style response.


----------



## teuchter (May 4, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Realistically, I don't think a NZ-style response was possible here. What very clearly was possible was a Germany-style response.


Yes, but I think we still don't know enough to say for sure that it would necessarily have had the same result.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 4, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Yes, but I think we still don't know enough to say for sure that it would necessarily have had the same result.


We can be very confident that it would have had a better result than the actual result we had here.

The same information was available to both govts at the same time in their outbreaks. Germany is an equivalently sized country to the UK, so we're fairly comparing like with like. Germany and the UK both suffered outbreaks with a number of different original source spreaders, so the dynamics of the initial epidemic are sufficiently similar. It is as a fair a country comparison as you can get.


----------



## Azrael (May 4, 2020)

weltweit said:


> UK Gov seemed loath to shut down air travel seeming - to my mind at least - to prefer it to peter out as the virus became established in countries. I recall wondering at the time if Gov was scared of lawsuits from UK airlines and airports. NZ closed borders and airlines very easily and they had a much smaller issue than the UK.
> 
> Border closing and a significant shutdown are key aspects to NZ's approach and reasons for their success. How much the UK could have done the same I am not sure.


We could've introduced travel bans from hotspots immediately, followed by 14 day quarantine of all incoming passengers. That many countries did this shows it's not a question of hindsight, but policy (the government explicitly said they were ending attempts to contain the outbreak, in-line with the flu pandemic plan).


----------



## Azrael (May 4, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> We can be very confident that it would have had a better result than the actual result we had here.
> 
> The same information was available to both govts at the same time in their outbreaks. Germany is an equivalently sized country to the UK, so we're fairly comparing like with like. Germany and the UK both suffered outbreaks with a number of different original source spreaders, so the dynamics of the initial epidemic are sufficiently similar. It is as a fair a country comparison as you can get.


We can go even further: Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea were all much closer to the epicenter, at a much earlier stage in the epidemic, yet all have managed to crush the outbreak (Hong Kong says new cases are now too low to calculate the R rate, while S.Korea's had several days of no community transmission).

Thanks to geography, distance and delay, Britain had even more natural advantages than those countries, and squandered them.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 4, 2020)

Azrael said:


> We can go even further: Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea were all much closer to the epicenter, at a much earlier stage in the epidemic, yet all have managed to crush the outbreak (Hong Kong says new cases are now too low to calculate the R rate, while S.Korea's had several days of no community transmission).
> 
> Thanks to geography, distance and delay, Britain had even more natural advantages than those countries, and squandered them.


I'm being charitable and comparing the UK to other big countries in Europe. There are a maximum of six countries of comparably big size in Europe: UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland. Four of those six really fucked things up, and of those four, the UK was last, and slowest, to act. If the UK had acted as well and in as timely a fashion as Germany, I wouldn't be criticising the govt for not having reacted as well as places with the experience of previous virus epidemic scares. 

Point for me is that, even being generous about failings, the UK still comes out smelling of shit.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (May 4, 2020)

Azrael said:


> We can go even further: Taiwan, Hong Kong and South Korea were all much closer to the epicenter, at a much earlier stage in the epidemic, yet all have managed to crush the outbreak (Hong Kong says new cases are now too low to calculate the R rate, while S.Korea's had several days of no community transmission).
> 
> Thanks to geography, distance and delay, Britain had even more natural advantages than those countries, and squandered them.



And more than that, they _said_ they were taking action. At the end of Feb they kept saying they were testing and tracing, banging on about their excellent tests and their top-quality labs, but they weren't. Not really. I flew into the UK from South Korea on 29th Feb, and they didn't even send someone to meet the plane. They didn't even take our contact details. For at least a month prior to that, you couldn't enter South Korea without a local mobile phone number. They'd help you buy a SIM there and then if necessary, but you had to be traceable. 

I just can't get my head round it.


----------



## Azrael (May 4, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I'm being charitable and comparing the UK to other big countries in Europe. There are a maximum of six countries of comparably big size in Europe: UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Poland. Four of those six really fucked things up, and of those four, the UK was last, and slowest, to act. If the UK had acted as well and in as timely a fashion as Germany, I wouldn't be criticising the govt for not having reacted as well as places with the experience of previous virus epidemic scares.
> 
> Point for me is that, even being generous about failings, the UK still comes out smelling of shit.


Yes, fair point, on the most generous assessment, Britain's response is still disastrous. One look at the foreign press outside America shows just how bad. The Australian press holds us up as a cautionary tale, and their CMO called the situation here "carnage". The government is furiously gaslighting for good reason.


----------



## Azrael (May 4, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> And more than that, they _said_ they were taking action. At the end of Feb they kept saying they were testing and tracing, banging on about their excellent tests and their top-quality labs, but they weren't. Not really. I flew into the UK from South Korea on 29th Feb, and they didn't even send someone to meet the plane. They didn't even take our contact details. For at least a month prior to that, you couldn't enter South Korea without a local mobile phone number. They'd help you buy a SIM there and then if necessary, but you had to be traceable.
> 
> I just can't get my head round it.


It makes sense on its own terms -- controlled spread, as dictated by the flu plan -- but it's still not clear why this plan wasn't junked.

Politicians overruling scientific and medical advice to keep the economy going would make most sense, but there's been no sign that the advisors were urging suppression. Just the opposite: all the investigative journalism to-date reports that the advisors were promoting the flu plan.

Unless it's all wrong, the crucial question's why?


----------



## MrCurry (May 4, 2020)

The EU launches an online fundraiser scheme, to fund research into a vaccine... popped up in my feed five mins ago. 

Well fuck me! It’s May and they just came up with that idea...    How about in February when we could all see this thing coming?


----------



## 2hats (May 4, 2020)

Royal Society evidence paper on the wearing of masks in public:

*Summary*: Face masks could offer an important tool for contributing to the management of community transmission of Covid19 within the general population. Evidence supporting their potential effectiveness comes from analysis of: (1) the incidence of asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic transmission; (2) the role of respiratory droplets in transmission, which can travel as far as 1-2 meters; and (3) studies of the use of homemade and surgical masks to reduce droplet spread. Our analysis suggests that their use could reduce onward transmission by asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic wearers if widely used in situations where physical distancing is not possible or predictable, contrasting to the standard use of masks for the protection of wearers. If correctly used on this basis, face masks, including homemade cloth masks, can contribute to reducing viral transmission.









						Face Masks for the General Public
					

Face masks could offer an important tool for contributing to the management of community transmission of Covid19 within the general population. Evidence supporting their potential effectiveness com...



					rs-delve.github.io


----------



## elbows (May 4, 2020)

Regarding NZ, its partly orthodox attitudes again. One of those is that small island nations have a better chance to keep new inections out, or minimise them. This affects the impression of what is practical and achievable, which in turn affects policy.

When coupled with the fact the UK establishment sees itself as some kind of champion of global trade etc, an international hub, and all the related economic ideology that follows from this, it never even occurred to me that we might do things differently with this pandemic, which is why I carried on describing the orthodox flu pandemic approach right up until mid March.

The extreme adherence to, predictability and slow evolution of our orthodox approaches is also illustrated by the fact that I didnt actually read any pandemic planning documentation that was done after 2009, nor anything about pandemic exercises conducted after 2009. And I was still able to predict most UK responses and failings right up until mid-March when the traditional approach lost its crown. Not that this lead to a totally unknown world, they just had to go back further in time to a much older orthodox approach to epidemics that pre-dated the modern era of vaccines etc.

When comparing various places to New Zealand, we also have to keep in mind the pollution aspect. Studies in this area are rather tentative and as usual it is hard to tell the difference between actual cause, and correlations of another sort. All the same, I wouldnt want to leave possibilities in this area out of the comparison.


----------



## William of Walworth (May 4, 2020)

Not sure whether this has been posted about yet, apologies if it has. It's from Saturday.

Looks like the US military is investigating the value of an early-diagnosis test for Covid-19 :




			
				The Guardian said:
			
		

> * US germ warfare research leads to new early Covid-19 test *
> 
> *Exclusive :* *Test has potential to identify carriers before they become infectious*



Possibly significant? In that this test appears to identify pre-infectious Covid-19 carriers?
Need help from the science-savvy Urbans  on how good or not this might be ....


----------



## teuchter (May 4, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> We can be very confident that it would have had a better result than the actual result we had here.
> 
> The same information was available to both govts at the same time in their outbreaks. Germany is an equivalently sized country to the UK, so we're fairly comparing like with like. Germany and the UK both suffered outbreaks with a number of different original source spreaders, so *the dynamics of the initial epidemic are sufficiently similar.* It is as a fair a country comparison as you can get.



I don't think we know enough to say that for sure.


----------



## Azrael (May 4, 2020)

elbows said:


> [...] Not that this lead to a totally unknown world, they just had to go back further in time to a much older orthodox approach to epidemics that pre-dated the modern era of vaccines etc. [...]


This is why I immediately suggested border controls, quarantine and contact tracing: Covid-19 has stripped away the protections of modern medicine -- although if anecdotal reports are backed by clinical studies, this may soon end -- so must be crushed with traditional public health measures.

Not that there's a neat split: the eradication of Smallpox was surprisingly old fashioned, with isolation and contact tracing the key components, aided by ring vaccination; and technology makes contact tracing more efficient than it's ever been.

That's the tragedy of this: we've never been in a better position to suppress an outbreak, but so many countries have squandered the opportunity.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 4, 2020)

Azrael said:


> Yes, fair point, on the most generous assessment, Britain's response is still disastrous. One look at the foreign press outside America shows just how bad. The Australian press holds us up as a cautionary tale, and their CMO called the situation here "carnage". The government is furiously gaslighting for good reason.


Their ongoing profoundly anti-democratic secrecy over the whole process just leads me to assume the worst, tbh. They fucked up and the minutes to the SAGE meetings would show exactly the process they followed as they fucked up, and they're desperate that we should not know that. Why else try to suppress it?


----------



## robsean (May 4, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Why else try to suppress it?



It's all they can suppress?


----------



## weltweit (May 4, 2020)

I saw a bit of an interview with Trump and the newscaster was saying that Trump would be happy to fight the upcoming election on his handling of the coronavirus issue. I am not sure that would be a great strategy for him myself.


----------



## teqniq (May 4, 2020)

'Falling' from windows seems to be all the rage with doctors in Russia.









						Third doctor falls from hospital window after raising alarm about coronavirus
					

Alexander Shulepov, 37, fell just days after he filmed a video with a colleague claiming bosses were making them work despite testing positive for Covid-19.




					metro.co.uk


----------



## Petcha (May 4, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I saw a bit of an interview with Trump and the newscaster was saying that Trump would be happy to fight the upcoming election on his handling of the coronavirus issue. I am not sure that would be a great strategy for him myself.



It's a great strategy. He's already set out his stall. He's an idiot. But he's not stupid - he's actually going to use this to his advantage by saying he was right all along to not trust the Chinese. The electorate will lap it up in the states he needs. This, coupled with the fact the democrats have no viable candidate means FOUR MORE YEARS.


----------



## Petcha (May 4, 2020)

BTW, if it was any other US president suggesting it was possible that this was a leak from the facility in Wuhan would you maybe give it some more credence? It does seem like a hell of a coincidence that that virology centre is located there. It would have been totally accidental of course but I don't think we can write it off just because it's the moron currently in the White House putting it forward.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 4, 2020)

Petcha said:


> BTW, if it was any other US president suggesting it was possible that this was a leak from the facility in Wuhan would you maybe give it some more credence? It does seem like a hell of a coincidence that that virology centre is located there. It would have been totally accidental of course but I don't think we can write it off just because it's the moron currently in the White House putting it forward.


It's a city the size of London. It has a virology department. How many other virology departments are there in London-sized cities around the world? It may have come from there, who knows, but it's not such an enormous coincidence that there is a virology dept there studying coronaviruses. There are virology departments all over the place, such as at London's Imperial College. They're likely to study the viruses that are most relevant to their particular part of the world, so they're likely to study the kinds of viruses that are most likely to hop onto humans in their part of the world.

Turn it around. It's a city of around 10 million people. Would you expect there to be a virology centre there? I would say yes, why not, they're not uncommon. Given the recent history of East Asia with SARS, etc, would you expect that virology centre to be studying coronaviruses? Again yes. In fact, it would surprise me more if it didn't.


----------



## Petcha (May 4, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> It's a city the size of London. It has a virology department. How many other virology departments are there in London-sized cities around the world? It may have come from there, who knows, but it's not such an enormous coincidence that there is a virology dept there studying coronaviruses. There are virology departments all over the place, such as at London's Imperial College. They're likely to study the viruses that are most relevant to their particular part of the world, so they're likely to study the kinds of viruses that are most likely to hop onto humans in their part of the world.



Fair enough. It's interesting though that the US intelligence community, who hate Trump by all accounts, ruled out a deliberate and malicious development of the virus in the facility, but didn't rule out an accidental leak of it. Which kind of speaks volumes.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 4, 2020)

Petcha said:


> Fair enough. It's interesting though that the US intelligence community, who hate Trump by all accounts, ruled out a deliberate and malicious development of the virus in the facility, but didn't rule out an accidental leak of it. Which kind of speaks volumes.


It just speaks to their level of knowledge. The reason they've ruled out artificial development is because they've studied the genome and found no evidence of tampering in the pattern of mutations. So it's a virus that appears to have evolved naturally. Where it came from exactly? They know no more about that than you or I know.


----------



## LDC (May 4, 2020)

Petcha said:


> Fair enough. It's interesting though that the US intelligence community, who hate Trump by all accounts, ruled out a deliberate and malicious development of the virus in the facility, but didn't rule out an accidental leak of it. Which kind of speaks volumes.



Intelligence would likely know if the Chinese were working on, or likely to, develop and release a virus deliberately, but it's much harder to rule out an accidental release as by its very nature there's loads of variables as to how accidents can happen.

So it's a fair position to have without it sounding like the accidental release is likely, it just can't be ruled out with such certainty.


----------



## spring-peeper (May 4, 2020)

From my fb feed



This is the linked article.


			https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-restrictions-next-phase-bonnie-henry-1.5553303?fbclid=IwAR182psl-3lz27vXobyDxBJVX0O549_chWSlsDKYcVkitqUp8IicVHrO1Vg


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 4, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Intelligence would likely know if the Chinese were working on, or likely to, develop and release a virus deliberately, but it's much harder to rule out an accidental release as by its very nature there's loads of variables as to how accidents can happen.
> 
> So it's a fair position to have without it sounding like the accidental release is likely, it just can't be ruled out with such certainty.


tbh it could have been an accident, which they have covered up. Entirely plausible. But I'm struggling to get  my head around the idea that anyone would seriously think China would deliberately release a new and deadly virus in the middle of one of its own cities? It's absurd.


----------



## emanymton (May 4, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> tbh it could have been an accident, which they have covered up. Entirely plausible. But I'm struggling to get  my head around the idea that anyone would seriously think China would deliberately release a new and deadly virus in the middle of one of its own cities? It's absurd.


I don't know they can be pretty devious those Chinese.


----------



## Jay Park (May 4, 2020)

‘Who cares if we have to kill a million, China has a billion’


----------



## prunus (May 4, 2020)

This is news I think?  Assuming it’s not a case of post sampling contamination:

“Research in France, where a Paris-area hospital has retested old samples from pneumonia patients, has found a Covid-19 case from 27 December, nearly a month before the French government confirmed its first cases, and suggesting the virus was circulating in Europe earlier than previously thought.

Yves Cohen, head of resuscitation at the Avicenne and Jean Verdier hospitals in the northern suburbs of Paris, said the man, who had not made any trips, was sick for 15 days and had infected his two children, but not his wife. “He was amazed. He didn’t understand how he had been infected,” he said.”

From French hospital discovers Covid-19 case from December

edit: better link.


----------



## Petcha (May 4, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> tbh it could have been an accident, which they have covered up. Entirely plausible. But I'm struggling to get  my head around the idea that anyone would seriously think China would deliberately release a new and deadly virus in the middle of one of its own cities? It's absurd.



I wasn't suggesting that. Trump suggested the deliberate release of it and then added as a caveat that it might have been accidental and the Chinese then covered up their massive fuckup. Which is a scenario I find more plausible than the whole BatFlu thing to be honest. I'm not a conspiracy theorist btw. But the the fact that it's Trump saying this, is, I think clouding some peoples' judgements. If Obama was hinting at this would you give it more credence?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 5, 2020)

Petcha said:


> I wasn't suggesting that. Trump suggested the deliberate release of it and then added as a caveat that it might have been accidental and the Chinese then covered up their massive fuckup. Which is a scenario I find more plausible than the whole BatFlu thing to be honest. I'm not a conspiracy theorist btw. But the the fact that it's Trump saying this, is, I think clouding some peoples' judgements. If Obama was hinting at this would you give it more credence?


Fair dos. I wasn't suggesting you thought that. But this is simply naked deflection and electioneering from Trump. He has zero evidence that this leaked from a lab accidentally. Nobody has any evidence of that.

And I'm sorry but your not finding the 'BatFlu thing' scenario plausible is simply you not knowing about the ways in which viruses can jump species. It's happened many times before and will no doubt happen again.

Here's an extract from a recent New Scientist article about the likelihood that the 1880 Russian flu was actually a coronavirus, which is still around today and is one of the various viruses that causes the common cold. (It's not just about increased immunity - viruses evolve over time to become less deadly, generally - low evolutionary fitness to kill your host.)



> The idea that common cold coronaviruses were far more deadly when they first appeared in humans is supported by animal studies. In 2016, for example, scientists caught a coronavirus in the act of jumping species into pigs. “The genetic sequence was closely related to coronaviruses in bats, so it looked like the virus had spilled over directly from bats,” says Linda Saif at Ohio State University. That virus killed 25,000 piglets in China in just a few months. Such events are common, says Saif, who has been investigating new coronavirus outbreaks in animals for decades. In the 1990s, for instance, a respiratory coronavirus devastated cattle herds with “shipping fever”. And in 1977, a diarrhoeal disease caused by a coronavirus emerged in pigs in Europe, later spreading to China and then the US, where it killed an estimated 8 million pigs.
> 
> 
> “It is quite possible that when these [common cold] coronaviruses first jumped over to humans, they would have caused episodes of severe disease,” says Saif. What is surprising, however, is how infrequently such leaps seem to have occurred. “When SARS happened,” says Esper, “people like myself started looking for other coronaviruses that might cause respiratory infections.” Only one new one turned up. In 2005, the fourth common cold coronavirus was discovered in a 71-year-old pneumonia patient in a Hong Kong hospital. HCoV-HKU1 causes respiratory illnesses and has been recorded worldwide. Its closest relative appears to be a rodent coronavirus. We don’t know when it began infecting humans. Esper points out, though, that people are less likely to be hospitalised with HKU1 and NL63 than with 229E and OC43, possibly indicating that the former pair have more ancient roots in human populations.
> ...




tbh the surprise ought not to be that this has happened. The surprise ought to be that we are surprised that it has happened. Suspecting foul play with no evidence for it kind of misses the point here.


----------



## frogwoman (May 5, 2020)

Ive been wondering about those coronaviruses related to colds too and whether they confer any degree of protection.


----------



## Combustible (May 5, 2020)

Petcha said:


> I find more plausible than the whole BatFlu thing to be honest.



The idea that the virus went from bats to humans via an intermediate species sold at a wildlife market for food is evidently plausible, since it is exactly how the first SARS spread from bats to humans, and the conditions remained for the same thing to happen again.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 5, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Ive been wondering about those coronaviruses related to colds too and whether they confer any degree of protection.


Yeah, I read a thing on that too. It's possible - like cowpox antibodies protecting milkmaids from smallpox. However, the article I read said that it is also possible that the opposite is true, and that having antibodies for related coronaviruses may provoke an overreaction from our bodies. This could explain why older people are more vulnerable. Currently we just don't know.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 5, 2020)

Combustible said:


> The idea that the virus went from bats to humans via an intermediate species sold at a wildlife market for food is evidently plausible, since it is exactly how the first SARS spread from bats to humans, and the conditions remained for the same thing to happen again.


Yep. And the fact that there is a virology centre 5 km away (not exactly around the corner in big city terms) is not really a bombshell revelation. At best it's a distraction from the questions that we need to ask regarding how to stop this from happening again. At worst, of course, it's just plain racism from Trump and others seeking to stir things up and deflect from their own shortcomings.


----------



## elbows (May 5, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Here's an extract from a recent New Scientist article about the likelihood that the 1880 Russian flu was actually a coronavirus, which is still around today and is one of the various viruses that causes the common cold. (It's not just about increased immunity - viruses evolve over time to become less deadly, generally - low evolutionary fitness to kill your host.)



I cannot read the full article, but it sounds like it was probably based on something I have read before due to my interest in what previous coronaviruses might have been like when they first emerged in humans. Its the 1889-90 pandemic, and the speculation came from a 2004-2005 paper that found a link between the OC43 human coronavirus and a bovine coronavirus. And then they did some time analysis which gave them some dates around 1890, although the 95% confidence interval covers some much broader ranges. And there is a fair amount of uncertainty about some other details, but since they have that date range and also found evidence of cattle herds being affected by something nasty int he 2nd half of the 19th century, and massive culling operations between 1870 and 1890 to eradicate that disease, they decided to speculate about the 1889-90 pandemic in humans. I'm glad they did, I found it very interesting, albeit not something close to proven.

This is the paper:



			https://jvi.asm.org/content/jvi/79/3/1595.full.pdf
		


I cannot begin to quote all the key bits, so I will just pick one bit from the speculation near the end:



> Another argument is the fact that central nervous system symptoms were more pronounced during the 1889–1890 epi- demic than in other influenza outbreaks. It has been shown that HCoV-OC43 has neurotropism and can be neuroinvasive.



Of course I enjoy speculation as long as it is acknowledged as such, and so I could not help but augment this stuff with some press details from the 1889-90 pandemic. Such as these, which I should note refer to various different countries and contradict eachother sometimes:



> According to other estimations, the total incidence amounted to 100,000 cases; military hospitals were overcrowded, multiple factories and workshops suspended their work because of the workers’ illness, and whole districts of the city were abandoned by the population [19]. It was reported that the disease could occur suddenly, without any preliminary signs, and that it touched the young and the old, the poor and the rich. It began with a terrible headache, accompanied by feverishness up to 42°C, unbearable bone aches and aches of the whole body “up to the hair roots”, facial rashes, and swollen hands. It was observed that after 5–6 days, the illness subsided without a trace, only leaving the patients weakened for some time.





> It was described that some patients ended their lives suddenly on the streets, which applied also to a large number of people known in the world of science. It was said that individuals of strenuous mental activity were particularly susceptible to the disease. However, some people had difficulty believing it; as they emphasized, the working people suffered to the same extent as the wealthy classes, because ‘the plague [did] not save any categories’.





> The last piece of information appeared on 29 January and it concerned medical issues related to doctor Potain (Pierre Potain, 1825–1901). Potain, one of the Parisian medical greats, was believed to have stated that the prevailing influenza was not a regular flu, insomuch as it was accompanied by the enlargement of spleen, which was not a typical symptom of flu.





> The press informed that influenza is so widespread that the school holiday was prolonged for another week . In Stuttgart, however, a medical council (Medicinische Collegium) summoned by the Ministry of Internal Affairs in Wurttemberg to investigate this issue disputed the use of health-police means. In other words, they disagreed that schools should be closed because of the disease since, as it was claimed, ‘this epidemic, both in the past and now, more affects adults than school children’





> First information concerning the epidemic in London appeared in the press around the middle of December 1889. As was then reported, it was relatively strong there _–_ ‘it showed such a special preference to lawyers and the court magistracy that some chambers of the palace of justice had to suspend their work for several days’  During the epidemic particular attention was paid to the differences in the morbidity between the sexes, since it was noted that women were less vulnerable to it.





> It was also claimed that although at first it was treated lightly, it turned out to be in fact more serious than it was presented.







__





						The influenza epidemic of 1889–90 in selected European cities – a picture based on the reports of two Poznań daily newspapers from the second half of the nineteenth century
					





					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## elbows (May 5, 2020)

By the way there are some fun little videos about the Salisbury Common Cold Unit where some human coronaviruses were first discovered in the 1960's here (although these videos dont say anything about coronaviruses). People used to volunteer to go there for a nice holiday while having cold viruses (or a placebo) dripped into their nose!


----------



## teqniq (May 5, 2020)




----------



## Cid (May 5, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> It's a city the size of London. It has a virology department. How many other virology departments are there in London-sized cities around the world? It may have come from there, who knows, but it's not such an enormous coincidence that there is a virology dept there studying coronaviruses. There are virology departments all over the place, such as at London's Imperial College. They're likely to study the viruses that are most relevant to their particular part of the world, so they're likely to study the kinds of viruses that are most likely to hop onto humans in their part of the world.
> 
> Turn it around. It's a city of around 10 million people. Would you expect there to be a virology centre there? I would say yes, why not, they're not uncommon. Given the recent history of East Asia with SARS, etc, would you expect that virology centre to be studying coronaviruses? Again yes. In fact, it would surprise me more if it didn't.



Bsl-4 labs are not at all common. There are 7 in the EU.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 5, 2020)

Cid said:


> Bsl-4 labs are not at all common. There are 7 in the EU.


How many in China?


----------



## Cid (May 5, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> How many in China?



Two afaik.


----------



## Cid (May 5, 2020)

Also some are specialised - e.g the uk has a few, but not all deal with human pathogens.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 5, 2020)

Cid said:


> Also some are specialised - e.g the uk has a few, but not all deal with human pathogens.


Ok, however, I think my point still stands that labs are more likely to be studying the viruses that are most likely to be a danger in their part of the world. I would be very surprised if that were not the case - it's what they'd be most likely to get funding for.


----------



## Cid (May 5, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Ok, however, I think my point still stands that labs are more likely to be studying the viruses that are most likely to be a danger in their part of the world. I would be very surprised if that were not the case - it's what they'd be most likely to get funding for.



Well yeah, but that cuts both ways. If a level 4 lab dealing with bat coronavirus is going to have a leak, that’s what it will be. It’s worth having a look at the Washington Post’s coverage... obviously still treat with extreme caution, but the arguments aren’t just coming from Trump.


----------



## elbows (May 5, 2020)

Yeah thats why the theory has to remain on my radar, since it was the lab where the famous SARS & bat coronavirus team was based in recent years. The team that spent 5 years collecting samples from bats in a (not local to Wuhan) cave, where some of the coronaviruses found in these bats were similar to SARS.

I dont know what methods intelligence analysts have for attempting to discern between genuine coincidences and things that test the bounds of reasonable coincidence.


----------



## Petcha (May 5, 2020)

Cid said:


> Well yeah, but that cuts both ways. If a level 4 lab dealing with bat coronavirus is going to have a leak, that’s what it will be. It’s worth having a look at the Washington Post’s coverage... obviously still treat with extreme caution, but the arguments aren’t just coming from Trump.



Both he and Pompeo claim to have seen the intelligence suggesting it came from the lab and the intelligence community haven't publicly discounted an accidental release of it from that lab. But I guess we won't know till the dust settles. Knowing Trump he's waiting till closer to election time to reveal all. It all smells a bit fishy to me.


----------



## PD58 (May 5, 2020)

An interesting Twitter discussion about the graphs


----------



## Yossarian (May 5, 2020)

weltweit said:


> UK Gov seemed loath to shut down air travel seeming - to my mind at least - to prefer it to peter out as the virus became established in countries. I recall wondering at the time if Gov was scared of lawsuits from UK airlines and airports. NZ closed borders and airlines very easily and they had a much smaller issue than the UK.
> 
> Border closing and a significant shutdown are key aspects to NZ's approach and reasons for their success. How much the UK could have done the same I am not sure.



Stopping flights would also have stopped infected British travelers bringing the virus to all kinds of new places, as seems to have been the case.


----------



## ice-is-forming (May 5, 2020)




----------



## 2hats (May 5, 2020)

A human monoclonal antibody, originally identified to neutralise SARS-CoV, that also neutralises SARS-CoV-2 in cell culture and may offer a potential for both treatment and prevention of COVID-19.

Wang, C., Li, W., Drabek, D. et al. A human monoclonal antibody blocking SARS-CoV-2 infection. Nat Commun *11*, 2251 (2020). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-16256-y


----------



## Petcha (May 5, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> View attachment 210887
> 
> View attachment 210889



I'm still a little uncomfortable with admitting Scott Morrison has been competent at something but he seems to have been here. Although I really hope letting hordes of people loose on Bondi this early doesn't prove a massive mistake. I think Ardern is taking a slightly more cautious approach to their lockdown release. Time will tell.


----------



## ice-is-forming (May 5, 2020)

Petcha said:


> I'm still a little uncomfortable with admitting Scott Morrison has been competent at something but he seems to have been here. Although I really hope letting hordes of people loose on Bondi this early doesn't prove a massive mistake. I think Ardern is taking a slightly more cautious approach to their lockdown release. Time will tell.



Me too.. deeply suspicious, like where's the real ScoMo!?! And isn't it time he fucked it up..

But yer right, some people are being reckless and time will tell.

Where I live the beach is always empty which is cool, and tbh I'm doing what I think is right for me and mine.. which is probably a bit more cautious than the restrictions. 

We've only had 10 cases in this town, all traced to travel and all recovered. But I'm not gonna take my eye off the ball.


----------



## treelover (May 5, 2020)

Missouri governor, allowing concerts from next monday, ffs.


----------



## The39thStep (May 5, 2020)

Portugal cut and paste headlines :

This Tuesday, Portugal recorded 1,074 deaths related to Covid-19, 11 more than on Monday, and 25,702 infected, that is, 178 more cases (0.7% more).

According to the Secretary of State for Health, António Lacerda Sales, this Tuesday there are 818 cases of hospitalization, of which 134 are in intensive care.

There are 1743 cases of recovery recorded, 31 more cases than yesterday. The recovered cases correspond to 6.8% of the total confirmed cases.

The overall lethality rate is 4.2% and the lethality rate over 70 years is 14.9%. About 85.9% of people undergoing treatment are being followed at home. There are 3.2% of inpatients in hospital, 0.5% of whom are in intensive care units and 2.7% in the ward.

During the pandemic, more than 2,300 health professionals were hired, including more than 700 nurses and more than a hundred doctors.

The Secretary of State acknowledges that there is a decrease in the number of tests carried out over the weekend. The government official guarantees, however, that this is not due to lack of supply, but due to the decrease in demand for these tests. António Lacerda Sales emphasizes that more than 459 thousand tests have been carried out since the beginning of March and that more than 44 thousand tests are being carried out per million inhabitants.


The Minister of Internal Affairs said today that 560 tests were carried out on covid-19 on migrants residing in Lisbon hostels, 178 of which had positive results, advancing that the tests will continue in other units reception of these citizens.

The Minister of Home Affairs said today that 433 people were detained during the 45 days of state of emergency.

The state of emergency was in force in Portugal between March 19 and May 2, and the country entered, last Sunday, in a calamity situation to face the covid pandemic.19.It will be a period of transition until the full opening, on June 1.


Seven hundred and eighty people were prevented from traveling on public transport yesterday because they were not wearing protective masks. This was the result of the first day of surveillance and inspection in public transport in Lisbon and Porto.Under the state of disaster, the capacity for public transport is limited to two thirds of the capacity.


GNR said that at least 460 users were not complying with the obligation to wear a mask or visor. PSP had already said that it had fined three people and prevented 320 from continuing their trip.

On the first day, it was barber shops and hairdressers who apparently had the greatest demand.
Tests before daycare centers open Daycare
workers have already begun testing for Covid-19. The screening program runs at the national level. It started Monday in the Algarve and in the Lisbon and Tagus Valley region.

By May 18, 29,000 workers are expected to be tested. It is for this date that the beginning of the daycare center reopening is scheduled.


----------



## spring-peeper (May 5, 2020)

treelover said:


> Missouri governor, allowing concerts from next monday, ffs.




Despite the governor’s green light, many of the state’s biggest venues are located in the cities hit hardest by the pandemic and will remain closed in compliance with local procedures.


----------



## elbows (May 5, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Here's an extract from a recent New Scientist article about the likelihood that the 1880 Russian flu was actually a coronavirus, which is still around today and is one of the various viruses that causes the common cold. (It's not just about increased immunity - viruses evolve over time to become less deadly, generally - low evolutionary fitness to kill your host.)



There is a related but opposite possibility to your last point in brackets, although I dont know very much about it and am unsure where I heard of it from.

If there are certain human genetic traits that make some people/families more susceptible to the very worst outcomes from a virus, those people may die to the extent that over time such vulnerabilities are harder to find in human populations.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> There is a related but opposite possibility to your last point in brackets, although I dont know very much about it and am unsure where I heard of it from.
> 
> If there are certain human genetic traits that make some people/families more susceptible to the very worst outcomes from a virus, those people may die to the extent that over time such vulnerabilities are harder to find in human populations.


Yeah sure, that too. We are all governed by the forces of natural selection, although humans arguably less so than others. However, a virus like covid-19, and perhaps Russian flu, too, that mostly kills the old will have only a marginal effect. 

But viruses evolve in fast-forward compared to us.


----------



## 2hats (May 5, 2020)

Researchers at Los Alamos, Sheffield and Duke report identification of a more contagious strain (D614G) of SARS-CoV-2 across Europe and the US East coast that modifies the spike protein. "We see a mutated form of the virus very rapidly emerging, and over the month of March becoming the dominant pandemic form", wrote the lead author.

Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.29.069054

Slightly overly dramatic LA Times article:









						Scientists say a now-dominant strain of the coronavirus could be more contagious than original
					

A mutation in the novel coronavirus has led to a new strain viewed as more contagious than the virus that emerged from China, according to a new study.




					www.latimes.com


----------



## Supine (May 6, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> However, a virus like covid-19, and perhaps Russian flu, too, that mostly kills the old will have only a marginal



Not disagreeing, but remember that when the Russian flu epidemic happened average life expectancy was only about 35!

A pandemic in this century has a lot more older people to infect.


----------



## elbows (May 6, 2020)

2hats said:


> Researchers at Los Alamos, Sheffield and Duke report identification of a more contagious strain (D614G) of SARS-CoV-2 across Europe and the US East coast that modifies the spike protein. "We see a mutated form of the virus very rapidly emerging, and over the month of March becoming the dominant pandemic form", wrote the lead author.
> 
> Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2
> DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.29.069054
> ...



Thanks for that one, I am currently part way through reading the research paper, I cannot face the media versions of the story right now, I will look at that tomorrow. Because media pandemic mutation cliches and associated drama have long been on my list of things to moan about. And I was very much not a fan of the '2 strains' stuff that came out in a paper quite early on. Although I will now have to go back and see whether it turns out that the early, flawed paper has any connection with the detail of this new study.

This paper is much more like it, plenty of detail, lots of focus on specific mutations at sites of interest, and the rather large genome dataset to work with. There are still some areas where the authors and everyone else have to rely on speculation, eg many mutations whose effects we do not fully understand, but finally I feel like with this pandemic we actually have enough data on this side of things to begin to do the subject of mutations some justice. I mean this level of detail is not brand new, I recall concerns about specific mutations in specific samples of H5N1 bird flu back in the years where most of the future pandemic risk concerns were directed towards that type of flu. But when it comes to public and media perceptions about virus mutations, famous and dramatic historical examples are often partly conjecture, based mostly on the observation of certain waves being worse than others. I'm not suggesting they were false, but I usually find there is quite important stuff in the detail, and when we dont have the detail I am likely to be quite skeptical.

Anyway I better try and finish reading the paper before I comment on it properly. But my initial thought from a purely personal point of view given what has come out of my big gob on the subject in the past is along the lines of doh! I really though I would get away with being quite flippant and dismissive about mutation aspects for much longer than this, but now it seems my focus on moaning about the tired mutation cliches was unwise. I'm not sure if I can really take much solace in the fact that the authors were also taken by surprise, but here is that bit anyway:



> When we embarked on our SARS-CoV-2 analysis pipeline, our motivation was to identify mutations that might be of potential concern in the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein as an early warning system for consideration as vaccine studies progress; we did not anticipate such dramatic results so early in the pandemic.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 6, 2020)

Supine said:


> Not disagreeing, but remember that when the Russian flu epidemic happened average life expectancy was only about 35!
> 
> A pandemic in this century has a lot more older people to infect.


True. Although life expectancy once you got through childhood was a fair bit higher. But if you're mostly only killing old people (and in the case of Covid-19, it is mostly the very old - in Ireland both the mean and median ages of death are over 80; in the UK 70 per cent of deaths have been over 75s), you're not exerting a huge selection pressure.


----------



## Marty1 (May 6, 2020)

weltweit said:


> UK Gov seemed loath to shut down air travel seeming - to my mind at least - to prefer it to peter out as the virus became established in countries. I recall wondering at the time if Gov was scared of lawsuits from UK airlines and airports. NZ closed borders and airlines very easily and they had a much smaller issue than the UK.
> 
> Border closing and a significant shutdown are key aspects to NZ's approach and reasons for their success. How much the UK could have done the same I am not sure.



*Britain’s open borders make it a global outlier in coronavirus fight
UK is not testing or quarantining travellers from overseas even as other world powers impose strict controls*

Maybe Boris was weary of being called a racist as Trump was when he restricted air travel from China?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 6, 2020)

2hats said:


> Researchers at Los Alamos, Sheffield and Duke report identification of a more contagious strain (D614G) of SARS-CoV-2 across Europe and the US East coast that modifies the spike protein. "We see a mutated form of the virus very rapidly emerging, and over the month of March becoming the dominant pandemic form", wrote the lead author.
> 
> Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2
> DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.29.069054
> ...


Suggestive perhaps of an explanation for the earlier suspicions that many/most of us may have some level of resistance that have since been contradicted by the very high infection levels recorded in US prisons (80 per cent in one).


----------



## two sheds (May 6, 2020)

And yet another reason letting the virus rip through the population to give herd immunity amounts to criminal negligence.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 6, 2020)

PD58 said:


> An interesting Twitter discussion about the graphs



Those conclusions don't follow from the graphs, though. They've cherry-picked, essentially, countries that acted early and effectively before an explosion of infection. Italy, Spain, Belgium and France also imposed strict and long lockdowns, but too late. That's the real story there. And many of the countries in those graphs have now begun easing, or in the case of South Korea, were organised enough never to impose a lockdown.

Really, the story of those graphs is that if you act too late at the start, then you'll be fucked. They say next to nothing about when to ease lockdown.


----------



## elbows (May 6, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Suggestive perhaps of an explanation for the earlier suspicions that many/most of us may have some level of resistance that have since been contradicted by the very high infection levels recorded in US prisons (80 per cent in one).



What earlier suspicions that many/most of us have some level of resistance?


----------



## krtek a houby (May 6, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> *Britain’s open borders make it a global outlier in coronavirus fight
> UK is not testing or quarantining travellers from overseas even as other world powers impose strict controls*
> 
> Maybe Boris was weary of being called a racist as Trump was when he restricted air travel from China?


Both men have a long and well documented history of racism and stirring it up against "minorities". 

And it's working for them. Trumps insistence on calling this the "Chinese" virus, is resulting in attacks on people of East Asian heritage in several countries, not just the US.

I doubt if Johnson gives a toss whether he's seen as a racist or not.

Expect more of this shit in the US as November approaches.


----------



## weltweit (May 6, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Stopping flights would also have stopped infected British travelers bringing the virus to all kinds of new places, as seems to have been the case.


Yes, I agree, they should have stopped incoming flights early and urgently especially from hot spots!


----------



## elbows (May 6, 2020)

2hats said:


> Researchers at Los Alamos, Sheffield and Duke report identification of a more contagious strain (D614G) of SARS-CoV-2 across Europe and the US East coast that modifies the spike protein. "We see a mutated form of the virus very rapidly emerging, and over the month of March becoming the dominant pandemic form", wrote the lead author.
> 
> Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2
> DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.29.069054
> ...



BBC version of the story, which includes other studies:









						Coronavirus mutations: Scientists puzzle over impact
					

A study has identified a mutation that its authors say could make the coronavirus more infectious.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> Another study from University College London (UCL) identified 198 recurring mutations to the virus.
> 
> One of its authors, Professor Francois Balloux, said: "Mutations in themselves are not a bad thing and there is nothing to suggest SARS-CoV-2 is mutating faster or slower than expected.
> 
> "So far, we cannot say whether SARS-CoV-2 is becoming more or less lethal and contagious."



I like this next quote because I do not like talk about 2 strains when the reality is more complicated, eg where the same mutations can appear in multiple different branches of the virus tree. I'd rather talk about the specific mutations than try to divide the whole picture up into 2 strains, one with the mutation in question and one without. But even trying to talk about it on this level I find myself quite out of my depth with this subject, I doubt I know all the relevant concepts or even the right terminology to use.



> A study from the University of Glasgow, which also analysed mutations, said these changes did not amount to different strains of the virus. They concluded that only one type of the virus is currently circulating.


----------



## wayward bob (May 6, 2020)

elbows said:


> By the way there are some fun little videos about the Salisbury Common Cold Unit where some human coronaviruses were first discovered in the 1960's here (although these videos dont say anything about coronaviruses). People used to volunteer to go there for a nice holiday while having cold viruses (or a placebo) dripped into their nose!



we did this in cardiff the 90s  was only a day iirc but it paid


----------



## elbows (May 6, 2020)

I already posted this story in an oil thread, but there is a quote in it which somewhat reflects my thoughts on lockdown etc as that stuff continues to sink into my brain, so I will post it here too.









						Climate change and coronavirus: Five charts about the biggest carbon crash
					

How the global pandemic is limiting carbon emissions and what this will mean for climate change.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> According to Prof Gail Whiteman from Lancaster University, UK, it was almost impossible to believe that governments around the world, when faced with a health emergency, would put humanity ahead of the economy. But they did.





> "We can recover from an existential, complex threat and emerge much stronger and more resilient," she says.
> 
> "Which strengthens the idea that we can do things differently on climate, that we can tackle this one.
> 
> "I think it gives us huge energy."


----------



## two sheds (May 6, 2020)

Only it seems very likely to go back to business as usual once the initial rush of infections are done - tory government with huge majority isn't likely to cede ground to anyone outside their own bubble.


----------



## elbows (May 6, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Suggestive perhaps of an explanation for the earlier suspicions that many/most of us may have some level of resistance that have since been contradicted by the very high infection levels recorded in US prisons (80 per cent in one).



I will ask again, what earlier suspicions that many/most of us have some level of resistance?

You know I am very interested in asymptomatic cases, levels of population infection, assumptions about how many people would get it if the pandemic was left unmitigated, and even the idea of some kind of ceiling that we dont understand.

But none of that translates in my mind to the idea that many/most of us have some level of resistance. But it depends what resistance means. So I'm asking again, what are you on about?


----------



## JimW (May 6, 2020)

AP is one of the few international news portals I can access easily here; been appreciating their series of obits of various ordinary people who've died due to Covid-19, proper memorials for victims who might otherwise just be numbers outside friends and family:








						Lives Lost: Generous Egyptian grandma was family 'jewel'
					

BAHTIM, Egypt (AP) — Gold and silver streamers fluttered in the breeze, hung from house to house down the alley, a festive sign of the holy month of Ramadan...




					apnews.com


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 6, 2020)

elbows said:


> I will ask again, what earlier suspicions that many/most of us have some level of resistance?
> 
> You know I am very interested in asymptomatic cases, levels of population infection, assumptions about how many people would get it if the pandemic was left unmitigated, and even the idea of some kind of ceiling that we dont understand.
> 
> But none of that translates in my mind to the idea that many/most of us have some level of resistance. But it depends what resistance means. So I'm asking again, what are you on about?


It doesn't depend on what resistance means, really. Just with a minimal definition - less likely to catch it than others even in direct contact with the virus, without hypothesising the mechanism, although it could be something like having antibodies to a related coronavirus. There was an emerging pattern from various studies, which I posted about a while back, that suggested that there could be some upper limit on the percentage of us that will become infected, perhaps as low as 20%: studies of populations in badly hit places, family members of infected people, the Diamond Princess.

That's all I'm referring to. An institution of a few thousand recording 80 percent is evidence against that. I was suggesting a possible connection between that and the suggestion of a new, more infectious strain.


----------



## The39thStep (May 6, 2020)

Cant find anywhere else to post this but I went out to Ferrerias which is a little town down the road and loads had masks on. The small shops can only have four people inside and customers and staff must wear a mask, compulsory to have perspex at the till area. Went to the chemists to buy some masks and on waiting and then entering the shop got told I needed to wear a mask to come in which I explained was why I had come in. Anyway 10 disposable masks 10 euros. Cafes and restuarants . bars technically are those larte night places with music,  open in two weeks but the safety restrictions are going to be financially difficult for some. . I spoke to a Portuguese friend of mine who has a cafe , she has to have perspex screens put up at the bar between customers and staff and indoor perpex  around the table .She said she may just close and leave.  Most Portuguese eat indoors or under shade so those with little or no outside space will struggle.  The take away trade from my local bars is still going but they close at 7.  GNR the police arrived just after I left one on Sunday and disperced the fifteen or so drinking beer outside who hadnt ordered any food and tbh had no intention of. Went through all the cars parked up as well checking tyres and documents.


----------



## 2hats (May 6, 2020)

Latest modelling suggests relaxing lockdown can be very finely balanced, needing close monitoring, some social distancing measures remaining in place, along with testing, contact-tracing and isolation of all infected cases. Here for Italy a return to 20% of pre-lockdown levels of mobility is sufficient to risk triggering a larger second _wave_ within 3 weeks.


----------



## elbows (May 6, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> It doesn't depend on what resistance means, really. Just with a minimal definition - less likely to catch it than others even in direct contact with the virus, without hypothesising the mechanism, although it could be something like having antibodies to a related coronavirus. There was an emerging pattern from various studies, which I posted about a while back, that suggested that there could be some upper limit on the percentage of us that will become infected, perhaps as low as 20%: studies of populations in badly hit places, family members of infected people, the Diamond Princess.
> 
> That's all I'm referring to. An institution of a few thousand recording 80 percent is evidence against that. I was suggesting a possible connection between that and the suggestion of a new, more infectious strain.



I would not make that link between a 'new strain' (but then I wouldnt call it a new strain either) and this. 

I'd like to see proper data on the prison, the 80% and the detail that most of them were asymptomatic is enough to make me a bit wary of that info. It could be correct and other stuff is whats been wrong, and I was certainly expecting more asymptomatic cases than any study has found anywhere yet. But this is a big leap between what was seen elsewhere, and I want to understand why. Sadly I havent found much about that prison (Marion, Ohio) being looked at by scientists and otehr professionals yet, just media stories about it. 

Attack rate or incidence rate are some of the terms used in epidemiology in regards this stuff as far as I know. I dont think all the underlying reasons for the rates estimated for particular diseases, epidemics etc are terribly well understood, so its another subject where I get wound up when I try to read up on it. Its an important number to feed into models because it obviously makes a huge difference to disease burden, but a lot of the numbers that end up getting used look like guesswork to me. Its another one of those things thats on my list of things to try to learn more about, but it gets so frustrating. I dont even hear that much talk about it and this pandemic. 

As for having antibodies to a related coronavirus, thats not on my radar much, because as far as wek know most people have never had a related coronavirus. Given that other beta coronaviruses that are endemic in humans are not much related to SARS-CoV-2. The original SARS is related, so its possible people who got the original SARS would be protected somewhat against SARS-CoV-2 (this pandemic virus) as well, but there have been no SARS outbreaks for a long time and coronavirus immunity is not thought to last for too many years. So this sort of area is low on my list of things to look at when considering what limits there might be to attack rates of this virus.


----------



## elbows (May 6, 2020)

2hats said:


> Latest modelling suggests relaxing lockdown can be very finely balanced, needing close monitoring, some social distancing measures remaining in place, along with testing, contact-tracing and isolation of all infected cases. Here for Italy a return to 20% of pre-lockdown levels of mobility is sufficient to risk triggering a larger second _wave_ within 3 weeks.



The report wont load for me right now, so I've had to make do with their own news item about it:









						New report models Italy's potential exit strategy from COVID-19 lockdown | Imperial News | Imperial College London
					

Imperial researchers have analysed the likely impact of easing lockdown measures in Italy and the impact on transmission of coronavirus.




					www.imperial.ac.uk


----------



## weltweit (May 6, 2020)

2hats said:


> Latest modelling suggests relaxing lockdown can be very finely balanced, needing close monitoring, some social distancing measures remaining in place, along with testing, contact-tracing and isolation of all infected cases. Here for Italy a return to 20% of pre-lockdown levels of mobility is sufficient to risk triggering a larger second _wave_ within 3 weeks.


The summary is interesting. I can't help wondering just how they coordinate a report that apparently was written by so many authors ?


----------



## frogwoman (May 6, 2020)

How prevalent are the cold causing coronaviruses, I saw a statistic saying 20-30% of colds? And how closely related to SARS-Cov2 are they?


----------



## Cid (May 6, 2020)

weltweit said:


> The summary is interesting. I can't help wondering just how they coordinate a report that apparently was written by so many authors ?



I believe it's getting more common... Big collaborative projects, especially with lots of data analysis and several institutions involved. And increasing willingness to acknowledge lower level researchers.


----------



## elbows (May 6, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> How prevalent are the cold causing coronaviruses, I saw a statistic saying 20-30% of colds? And how closely related to SARS-Cov2 are they?



Estimate vary, I have seen estimates that go as low as 15% but these might be old, and I certainly see plenty of 25%-30% too, maybe even some that go higher. But there are certainly a lot of other viruses that get labelled as the common cold too.

They are not closely related to SARS-CoV-2. Two of them are related to eachother, and the other two are more distantly related to eachother. Two of them are at least beta coronaviruses which is the same broad type as SARS-CoV-2, but that are not even closely related enough that I could easily stumble on scientific papers that go on about such things. They are all thought to have crossed from animals to humans at different times. The coronaviruses may have had a common ancestor millions of years ago.

Different existing human coronaviruses likely follow cycles in human populations, having years where one or two of them are quite rampant, and then years where they are not doing much in a particular country or region. This is thought to be linked to human immunity, and is probably one of the reasons that people are often not optimistic when they talk about how long human immuniy to coronaviruses lasts. ie if these coronaviruses seem to pop up in waves every 2-4 years, then that might also point to immunity lasting a similar length of time.

There are great big huge gaps in my knowledge and I dont find it at all easy to try to turn concepts relating to mutations, viral evolution, ancestry and how closely related different ones are into simple concepts. And I havent got my head round much of the detail. But I recall for example concepts such as recombination from the years where I was looking most heavily into influenza, and I see this has popped up again in some of the recent study into this pandemic virus. If I recall correctly, the simple version of recombination is that bits of the viruses genome are not only there because of random mutations, some viruses can also copy bits from each other if a host is co-infected with both viruses at the same time. And its thought that for various reasons certain animal hosts may be especially important in terms of their potential to enable a lot of recombination events. Bats could be one of those. I'm less familiar with the human picture, but I suppose in theory some people, such as hospital patients or healthcare workers, might be more likely to encounter multiple viruses at the same time and thus be potential hosts for more recombination events than others. I'm not exactly sure when I will find time to try to improve my knowledge on this and other details, so take what I'm saying on this with a pinch of salt and do own reading about the subject if interested.

But dragging things back to the likely original reason we went on this tangent, the simplified version of a pandemic is that the entire reason its a big deal in the first place is that the human population lacks immunity against the virus, its one of the main reasons novel viruses are of concern in the first place. However several influenza pandemics of the last century did turn out to involve some sections of the population having some degree of prior exposure to similar flu viruses in their distant past, so the simplified version of a pandemic tends to fall short of covering this reality. Plus quite a lot of flu epidemics, where the type of influenza was not 'brand new' to humans (so not a pandemic) still involved nasty amounts of death that stick out in the historical mortality data. Well the strain of flu doesnt need to be brand new to evade immune systems to the extent that nasty epidemics can result, it can just evolve over time to the extent that enough of its characteristics become different enough that the immune systems of people are no longer primed to deal with the virus. Bringing me to another concept that I recall from the past in this regard and that I would recommend reading up on if interested, Antigenic Drift. I'd love to say more, but I am oh so rusty on this stuff.


----------



## Aladdin (May 6, 2020)

Feckin hairdressers here are whinging about people wanting their hair cut. Apparently there's a bit of a black market going on. 
Hairdressers being offered 5 times the amount they normally charge to do hair. 

How on earth do they expect to wash and cut hair and maintain social distancing? 

I'm worried that the government will cave in to loudmouths and not heed to the chief medical officer's advice. 
I mean hair dressing is not an essential service.. hair can easily be trimmed or cut at home. And dyed too of needed.


----------



## zahir (May 7, 2020)




----------



## cupid_stunt (May 7, 2020)

zahir said:


>




That doesn't look good at first glance, but it could just be because of increased testing, that could be picking up on more mild cases.


----------



## zahir (May 7, 2020)

Going off this report it looks like it may indicate a real increase. Iran might be worth paying attention to as, I think, the first country outside eastern Asia for both being badly hit by the pandemic and for relaxing its lockdown. It may show a pattern that will be repeated elsewhere.









						Coronavirus resurgence hits Iran
					

Iranian officials warn that a resurgence of the novel coronavirus is gripping nearly half of the country as the number of infections climb once again.




					www.al-monitor.com
				





> A report released by Iran’s Health Ministry says 15 out of the country’s 31 provinces are experiencing a resurgence of the novel coronavirus pandemic, despite a flattened curve after more than two months of containment efforts.
> 
> While the capital Tehran appeared to have begun a downward trend in cases, several popular tourism areas including Isfahan, Gilan and the pilgrimage city of Qom — the epicenter of the outbreak — are now facing another wave of infection.
> 
> ...


----------



## kabbes (May 7, 2020)

elbows 2hats

An actuarial analysis of the commonly seen claim that "deaths are occurring in people that would have died anyway"









						The co-morbidity question
					

Would the majority of COVID-19 victims have died this year anyway, as some have suggested? Matthew Edwards and Stuart McDonald investigate




					www.theactuary.com
				




Conclusion:


> Recapping the main arguments, COVID-19 does seem to disproportionately affect people with chronic health problems. On the other hand, while it affects the old more than the young, and a large proportion of the elderly will have chronic health problems, only a tiny fraction of impaired lives have life expectancies of the order of one year. Therefore we feel it is unfounded to claim that a large proportion of those who have died from COVID-19 in 2020 would have died in any case this year.
> 
> This claim, in addition to being false, is also dangerous from a public health perspective: it understates the risk from the disease, endangering adherence to government policy on social distancing. It also seems very callous, encouraging a ‘why should I care?’ attitude to the people in question – in our view, people who would (in the great majority of cases) be alive now in the absence of the coronavirus, and would probably still be alive in several years’ time.



This is built on a mortality model based on those with heavy comorbid diseases, that produces this kind of thing:


----------



## weltweit (May 7, 2020)

Germany’s coronavirus response: Separating fact from fiction
from 07/05/2020 Germany’s coronavirus response: Separating fact from fiction | DW | 07.04.2020

The English language article debunks some of the myths of why Germany seems to be doing better in Europe compared to Spain Italy and UK. But it slightly frustratingly doesn't propose why they actually are doing better.


----------



## elbows (May 7, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Germany’s coronavirus response: Separating fact from fiction
> from 07/05/2020 Germany’s coronavirus response: Separating fact from fiction | DW | 07.04.2020
> 
> The English language article debunks some of the myths of why Germany seems to be doing better in Europe compared to Spain Italy and UK. But it slightly frustratingly doesn't propose why they actually are doing better.



I approve of myth busting but that article isnt very good really, in some places it could be in danger of introducing its own myths in place of the ones it is seeking to debunk. Theres no depth to it, eg they talk about the timing of Germanys measures only in relation to the timing of other countries, not in relation to the stage that Germanys own epidemic had reached at that moment in time. And they favour anecdotes over data.

I dont really want to judge Germany in detail until I see their proper mortality data (equivalent to UK ONS data on deaths, both those labelled Covid-19 and excess mortality in general), and how they do in the coming weeks and months with less lockdown.

I've probably already spoken in the past of areas I will want to look at with Germany as potential reasons for their success. If their excess winter mortality is usually much lower than ours, which I think I read somewhere but havent followed up on, then it shouldnt be surprising if their mortality rates during a pandemic are also lower. And we should be looking at what features in Germany during normal times are responsible for that. I dont know what they are, but I would certainly want to look at what their hospital infetion control is like, and the culture around such matters, eg do they have less doctors etc with dodgy personal hygiene than the UK? What were their policies like in terms of the transfer of people between hospital and care homes? Would such transfers be backed up by testing, both in normal times and in this pandemic? What were their hospital admission policies like? And I'm sure plenty of other things I havent thought of.

Not too long ago Whitty said that when he spoke to his German colleagues, they werent sure about the reasons for their relative success either. It is convenient for Whitty to make this claim, but its also quite possible that there is some truth to it.

Another thing to consider when asking 'why has country x done well?', is that the same questions can be asked of certain regions of countries where the country was very badly affected in some places, but not in  those regions. That at least allows national policies to be removed from the equation, but I get the idea the regional stuff is seen as less intriguing, that many of the reasons seem so obvious that there isnt so much to ponder.


----------



## 2hats (May 8, 2020)

Preprint (not peer reviewed yet) that highlights the fact this virus could, and did, travel at 0.85 Mach. It suggests (perhaps not entirely surprisingly) that air travel was a major contributor to the rapidity of spread at global scale - "global connections, represented by countries importance in the global air transportation network, is the main explanation for the growth rate of COVID-19 in different countries".
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.02.20050773

Meanwhile researchers spot SARS-CoV-2 RNA in COVID-19 patients' semen, raising the possibility (though perhaps a slim one) of sexual transmission (cf ebola, zika). Though transmission via the respiratory route during sex is almost certainly more likely anyway.








						Sperm containing virus raises small risk of COVID-19 spread via sex: study
					

Chinese researchers who tested sperm of men infected with COVID-19 found that a minority of them had the new coronavirus in their semen, opening up a small chance the disease could be transmitted sexually, scientists said on Thursday.




					uk.reuters.com
				



DOI: 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.8292


----------



## teuchter (May 8, 2020)

Read an interesting thing in new scientist saying that in Australia they might actually experience a decrease, rather than increase, in deaths this year. This because they did the lockdown etc while managing to get away with hardly any covid deaths - but the lockdown has reduced the transmission of seasonal flu compared to a 'normal' year. I wonder if this means they will see a surge in seasonal flu deaths next year.

This also made me wonder... is the fact that they are southern hemisphere part of the explanation for aus and nz's success? In other words in February when it seems the virus really took off outside china, were europeans all crowded indoors while antipodeans were at the beach?


----------



## HAL9000 (May 8, 2020)

*Trump admin allegedly told CDC its reopening guide would "never see the light of day."*










						CDC guide to reopening was trashed by the Trump admin. It just leaked
					

Trump admin allegedly told CDC its reopening guide would "never see the light of day."




					arstechnica.com
				




The link in the quote takes you to the CDC document



> Public health experts at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have leaked their recommendations on how to safely reopen businesses amid the COVID-19 pandemic—after officials in the Trump administration rejected the guidance and allegedly told CDC officials their plan would "never see the light of day."
> 
> 
> The 17-page document (PDF found here) was initially set to be published last Friday but was nixed. Instead, it was released to the Associated Press by a CDC official who was not authorized to release it.


----------



## ice-is-forming (May 8, 2020)

*Queensland, What can you do from Saturday May 16?*

Gatherings of a maximum of *10 people in a public place*
Dining in at restaurants, pubs, clubs, RSLs and cafes for a maximum of *10 patrons at one time* (no bars or gaming)
Recreational travel of a radius of up to *150km from your home* for day trips
Some beauty therapies and nail salons for up to *10 people at one time*
Reopening of libraries, playground equipment, skate parks and outdoor gyms with *a maximum of 10 people at one time*
Wedding guests increase to *10 people*
Funeral attendance increased to *20 people (30 outdoors)*
Open homes and auctions with a *maximum of 10 people* at one time
Reopening of public pools and lagoons with a *maximum of 10 people* at a time or greater numbers with an approved plan


----------



## weltweit (May 8, 2020)

ice-is-forming that looks like a pretty big relaxation to me .. is it safe enough in Queensland to do this?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> ice-is-forming that looks like a pretty big relaxation to me .. is it safe enough in Queensland to do this?


If it isn't safe enough in Queensland now, when will it be? Look at Australia's infection rate over the last couple of weeks. It's achieved virtual eradication. No new cases in QLD yesterday. Zero.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers


----------



## weltweit (May 8, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> If it isn't safe enough in Queensland now, when will it be? Look at Australia's infection rate over the last couple of weeks. It's achieved virtual eradication. No new cases in QLD yesterday. Zero.
> 
> Coronavirus (COVID-19) current situation and case numbers


Aha, those are indeed good numbers !


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (May 8, 2020)

Anyone have an update on weekly excess deaths here in the UK? It seems a little while since I saw anything on this.


----------



## elbows (May 8, 2020)

Kevbad the Bad said:


> Anyone have an update on weekly excess deaths here in the UK? It seems a little while since I saw anything on this.



England & Wales:



Scotland:



Northern Ireland:


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (May 8, 2020)

elbows said:


> England & Wales:
> 
> View attachment 211437
> 
> ...


Thanks elbows


----------



## Mr Retro (May 8, 2020)

From the Lancet. Author is Sweden's former state epidemiologist. Saying lockdowns are only good for relieving the burden on health service and we're all getting infected with Coronavirus 2



			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31035-7/fulltext


----------



## elbows (May 8, 2020)

Mr Retro said:


> From the Lancet. Author is Sweden's former state epidemiologist. Saying lockdowns are only good for relieving the burden on health service and we're all getting infected with Coronavirus 2
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31035-7/fulltext



Awful. This pandemic has lowered my opinion of Sweden significantly.

Take this sentence about hard lockdown:



> Neither does it decrease mortality from COVID-19, which is evident when comparing the UK's experience with that of other European countries



No mention of the timing of lockdown relative to stage of epidemic in a country at the time, and what effect this has.

Some aspects of what is said do need to be kept in mind, but the whole thing seems to just boil down to apologism for Swedens shitty approach. So much missing, including the actions of many other countries and the impact they had.


----------



## elbows (May 8, 2020)

Its also not the only stuff from Sweden that has started using the terrible situation in care homes as a defence of their policies elsewhere.

Again, there are some important points which are not untrue, but the way its being used to justify the rest of their shit disgusts me.



			https://www.thelocal.se/20200506/coronavirus-in-sweden-the-death-toll-really-came-as-a-surprise-to-us
		




> Tegnell told The Daily Show's Trevor Noah (scroll down to watch the video) that accepting a higher death toll initially if it meant a better result in the long run was never part of Sweden's strategy when it came to fighting the novel coronavirus.
> 
> "We calculated on more people being sick, but the death toll really came as a surprise to us," he said. "We really thought our elderly homes would be much better at keeping this disease outside of them then they have actually been.
> 
> ...


----------



## 2hats (May 8, 2020)

Indeed, here the Swedish State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell contradicts Giesecke on care homes:









						Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell the target of praise, criticism over handling of COVID-19 pandemic
					

The 64-year old bureaucrat has become such a polarizing figure that while 2,000 Swedish scientists have signed a petition denouncing his strategy, more than 100,000 people have joined Anders Tegnell fan clubs




					www.theglobeandmail.com


----------



## teqniq (May 8, 2020)

teqniq said:


> They are protesting lockdown and using intimidation as a tactic.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


State representative comes to Michigan capitol with an armed escort:









						Armed black citizens escort Michigan lawmaker to capitol after volatile rightwing protest
					

State representative Sarah Anthony says she wanted to highlight failure of policing after armed white protesters demonstrated




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## HAL9000 (May 8, 2020)

Dutch Students Complete Atlantic Crossing Forced by Virus
					

The children, ages 14 to 17, watched over by 12 experienced crew members and three teachers, were on an educational cruise of the Caribbean when the pandemic forced them to change plans




					www.voanews.com
				








> Greeted by relieved parents, pet dogs, flares and a cloud of orange smoke, a group of 25 Dutch high school students with very little sailing experience ended a trans-Atlantic voyage Sunday that was forced on them by coronavirus restrictions.
> 
> 
> The children, ages 14 to 17, watched over by 12 experienced crew members and three teachers, were on an educational cruise of the Caribbean when the pandemic forced them to radically change their plans for returning home in March


----------



## weltweit (May 8, 2020)

teqniq said:


> State representative comes to Michigan capitol with an armed escort:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Something is out of kilter in the US I think. 

These are not hunting rifles, they are guns designed to kill people. Why would you need such guns?


----------



## teqniq (May 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Something is out of kilter in the US I think.
> 
> These are not hunting rifles, they are guns designed to kill people. Why would you need such guns?


That's a good question, and as for 'out of kilter' that's massive understatement. The right-wing loony tunes were eqally tooled up with AR-15's and suchlike.


----------



## weltweit (May 8, 2020)

teqniq said:


> That's a good question, and as for 'out of kilter' that's massive understatement. The right-wing loony tunes were eqally tooled up with AR-15's and suchlike.


Both sets of people are deeply worrying imo.


----------



## teqniq (May 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Both sets of people are deeply worrying imo.


From the linked article, my bold. Seems like a fairly reasonable response/statement imo. But you are right, things are badly awry in the US, it may only be a question of time before things get really nasty:



> A black lawmaker came to Michigan’s capitol with an escort of armed black citizens on Wednesday, days after white protesters with guns staged a volatile protest inside the state house, comparing the Democratic governor’s public health orders to “tyranny”.
> 
> *The state representative Sarah Anthony, 36, said she wanted to highlight what she saw as the failure of the Michigan capitol police to provide legislators with adequate security during the protest, which saw demonstrators with rifles standing in the legislative chamber above lawmakers.
> 
> “When traditional systems, whether it’s law enforcement or whatever, fail us, we also have the ability to take care of ourselves,” *she told the Guardian. Anthony became the first African American woman elected to represent her district in Lansing, Michigan’s capital, in 2018....


----------



## prunus (May 8, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Something is out of kilter in the US I think.
> 
> These are not hunting rifles, they are guns designed to kill people. Why would you need such guns?



They’re for killing people.


----------



## two sheds (May 8, 2020)

Or in this case discouraging other people from killing the elected representative?


----------



## spring-peeper (May 8, 2020)

prunus said:


> They’re for killing people.




To quote Trudeau as he banned a swath of them.



> "These weapons were designed for one purpose and one purpose only: to kill the largest number of people in the shortest amount of time," Trudeau said. "There is no use and no place for such weapons in Canada."


----------



## Dogsauce (May 9, 2020)

2hats said:


> Indeed, here the Swedish State Epidemiologist Anders Tegnell contradicts Giesecke on care homes:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



on the care homes thing - I presume there will be differences between nations on the number of people in care homes or similar settings. I believe in some countries it is more common than in the UK for elderly relatives to be cared for by family (get the feeling this is the case in Southern Europe) so may be less of these types of places. Given that in the UK at least some homes have been a hotbed of transmission then will this have any kind of significant difference on mortality figures? I might see if I can find some numbers for this.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 9, 2020)

WHO European health information at your fingertips.
					

Indicator: Nursing and elderly home beds per 100 000, Categories: Health care resources




					gateway.euro.who.int
				




(will try to decipher this in the morning, going to sleep!)


----------



## Part-timah (May 9, 2020)

Brazil: It appears the R number is still above 1 and their fascist leader is chatting about relaxing the few restrictions in place.









						Report 21 - Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil
					

Report 21 - Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil




					www.imperial.ac.uk


----------



## Yossarian (May 9, 2020)

Terrifying robot dog patrols Singapore park to remind people of social distancing.


----------



## NoXion (May 9, 2020)

> "These weapons were designed for one purpose and one purpose only: to kill the largest number of people in the shortest amount of time," Trudeau said. "There is no use and no place for such weapons in Canada."



Which is why Trudeau is selling them to Saudi Arabia to murder Yemenis. The disgusting neoliberal hypocrite.


----------



## teqniq (May 9, 2020)

Ugandan president using coronavirus restrictions as a means of stifling any opposition.

Coronavirus: ‘You can risk your life as long you are doing the right thing’


----------



## Anju (May 9, 2020)

Illustrates just how far away from any real safe significant relaxing of lockdown we are. 

"*South Korea*, which is trying to relax physical distancing regulations, on Saturday shut down more than 2,100 clubs and bars in the capital after a new cluster of cases emerged, apparently linked to a single individual who had gone out while infected"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/09/global-report-coronavirus-russia-becomes-new-hotspot-as-south-korea-shuts-bars?


----------



## frogwoman (May 9, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Ugandan president using coronavirus restrictions as a means of stifling any opposition.
> 
> Coronavirus: ‘You can risk your life as long you are doing the right thing’


 The cops are probably spreading covid around too by arresting so many.


----------



## weltweit (May 10, 2020)

from 10/05/2020 'It isn't over': South Korea records 34 new Covid-19 cases, the highest in a month


> South Korea has reported 34 new coronavirus cases, the highest daily number in a month, after a small outbreak emerged around a slew of nightclubs that a confirmed patient had visited.
> ..
> The resurgence followed a small but growing coronavirus outbreak centred around a handful of Seoul nightclubs, which a man in his late 20s had visited before testing positive for the virus.





> At least 15 people were traced to that man as of Friday, and 14 of the 26 cases were reported from Seoul on Sunday, although the KCDC did not specify how many were linked.
> 
> The outbreak prompted Seoul city to impose an immediate temporary shutdown of all nightly entertainment facilities on Saturday. The city said it is tracking down about 1,500 people who have gone to the clubs, and has asked anyone who was there last weekend to self-isolate for 14 days and be tested.





> ..
> As part of a long-term battle on Covid-19, the KCDC will be given greater power and renamed the Disease Control and Prevention Administration, Moon said. Local governments will set up their own epidemic response systems with more experts.
> 
> “We will also push to establish hospitals specialised in treating infectious diseases and a national infectious disease research centre,” Moon said.





> “These tasks are very urgent if we are to prepare for the second epidemic wave that experts predict will hit this fall or winter.”


----------



## teqniq (May 10, 2020)

Coronavirus spread accelerates again in Germany
					

New coronavirus infections are accelerating again in Germany just days after its leaders loosened social restrictions, raising concerns that the pandemic could once again slip out of control.




					www.reuters.com
				




meanwhile here in the UK









						Furlough announcement 'due on Tuesday' with plan for workers to return part-time
					

More than six million people have been furloughed in the UK as a result of the coronavirus pandemic but many of these might be made to work part-time, it's said




					www.mirror.co.uk


----------



## weltweit (May 10, 2020)

Bad news about Germany .. teqniq


----------



## phillm (May 10, 2020)

Imperial's model being questioned here and by ex Northern Rock's  Telegraph neo-con Matt Ridley. Turns out it is 15k lines of 13-year-old code.









						A critique of Neil Ferguson’s (the Imperial College) pandemic model
					

A few weeks ago our party assembled a team to audit pandemic models that are being used to inform public policy. Team members have a mathematics and programming background, enabling them to examine whether these...




					timesofindia.indiatimes.com
				




_We note that the progression of the disease in Sweden has not been particularly different to that in other countries. Further, in all countries, the progression of disease has tapered off. This could have the following implications, that: (a) the impact of lockdowns on R0 is relatively low; or (b) the impact of disease progression on R0 is much more front-loaded than current models assume.

Sweden has been able to moderate the increase in deaths in Stockholm after an initial spurt of deaths in aged care homes. The number of its new cases is plateauing. This may have the following implications, that (a) isolating the elderly is a viable strategy, particularly if more resources are deployed towards that purpose; and (b) most of the mortality and healthcare overburdening risk comes from high risk clusters about which we now have more information and can therefore plan better._









						Is the chilling truth that the decision to impose lockdown was based on crude mathematical guesswork?
					

Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College “stepped back” from the Sage group advising ministers when his lockdown-busting romantic trysts were exposed.




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




_We now know that the model’s software is a 13-year-old, 15,000-line program that simulates homes, offices, schools, people and movements. According to a team at Edinburgh University which ran the model, the same inputs give different outputs, and the program gives different results if it is run on different machines, and even if it is run on the same machine using different numbers of central-processing units._


----------



## editor (May 10, 2020)

Fucking Boris. 









						Greeks marvel at Britain's Covid chaos as their lockdown lifts after 150 deaths
					

Emerging resilient after a tough, early lockdown, Greece looks forward to a summer tourist season beginning in July




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## kabbes (May 10, 2020)

phillm said:


> _We now know that the model’s software is a 13-year-old, 15,000-line program that simulates homes, offices, schools, people and movements. According to a team at Edinburgh University which ran the model, the same inputs give different outputs, and the program gives different results if it is run on different machines, and even if it is run on the same machine using different numbers of central-processing units._


 That could mean anything.  It could just mean that it is a stochastic model and using different machines creates a different random seed.  In which case yes, the “outputs” would be different, but the distribution of outcomes would be materially the same for every run, with acceptable simulation error if enough simulations are run.  
The article smacks of journalists that don’t understand mathematical models desperately searching for a “gotcha” and writing up the first thing they think they found,


----------



## elbows (May 10, 2020)

The stuff about the age of the code is not a new revelation at all, its an old criticism that is being recycled by shits who would never have had a lockdown at all if they'd got their way.

The modelling might not be excellent, and even if models are good they can still be ruined by the wrong assumptions being fed into them.

But the bottom line for me is that what really changed minds and caused plan A to be abandoned wasnt just down to the models, it was real data from the reality in Italy in March. The death reality, the hospital reality. Other countries too, like China and Iran, but for various reasons it resonated more when it was happening in Europe.

The public didnt even get to see the output from Fergusons model until March 16th. And yet days before that happened, the original plan still went down very badly with the public, people were going crazy about the herd immunity shit, and the phrase Boris the butcher was doing the rounds. All of this happened without any knowledge of the model, it happened because people were suspicious of the Johnson regimes priorities, and they had seen what happened in other countries.


----------



## 2hats (May 10, 2020)

phillm said:


> Imperial's model being questioned here


The model software on github smacks of code that has grown organically, possibly the original core being over a couple of decades old. That core likely ported from FORTRAN or a rewrite in C++ by a FORTRAN programmer (knowing some of the people and influences involved, that would be my bet).

But, there isn't one model. There are many being run in the Imperial group alone, and many more in many more groups across the UK, let alone internationally. The bulk of them are in broad agreement.


----------



## elbows (May 10, 2020)

2hats said:


> But, there isn't one model. There are many being run in the Imperial group alone, and many more in many more groups across the UK, let alone internationally. The bulk of them are in broad agreement.



And although the ill advised UK '20,000 deaths would be a good result' was likely based on modelling, at least the UK didnt keep giving new total death predictions based on the models. Unlike the USA where they occasionally treated numbers from the iffy IHME model far too seriously, and made public pronouncements about how they could have 200,000 deaths, then changed to how they would probably have 60,000 deaths, only to have to revise that again to 100,000, and since then the model was revised to over 130,000.


----------



## frogwoman (May 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> The stuff about the age of the code is not a new revelation at all, its an old criticism that is being recycled by shits who would never have had a lockdown at all if they'd got their way.
> 
> The modelling might not be excellent, and even if models are good they can still be ruined by the wrong assumptions being fed into them.
> 
> ...



Yep.


----------



## FabricLiveBaby! (May 10, 2020)

Poland are to reopen cafes and bars from next week.  But only with table service and only those places with gardens at first.  They also have to have a minimum of 2m apart from other tables.

Nursery's have open from th middle of this week.

Social distancing measures which still apply are keep your distance, and a mask must be worn at all times outside. Heavy restrictions still in shops (masks and gloves mandatory). But centres have been open sinc Monday. 

However, a lot of people are breaking the rules when outside. Not wearing masks properly (or even at all), people now starting to visit friends (I had 2 people round for my birthday and next door constantly have guests). But compared to the UK it all looks pretty mild. No mass gatherings. No clapping. No excuses. 

It was 28 degrees today and after 2 months people have had enough.

Current situation: In Poland there are +300 (ish) cases day on day.  About 20 per day dying.

In my region around Krakow (Malopolska, or lesser Poland) there are between 10-20 new cases each day and 1 death every day/every other day.

Currently there's a bin fire going on in Silesia (started by an outbreak in a mine!) and also a smaller bin fire in Greater Poland (wielkopolksa). The numbers are stable for now.

Masovia (where the capital is) has seen a dramitic drop in day on day cases after an early outbreak.

There certainly is light at the end of the tunnel here but compared to the UK people have been much, much stricter.


----------



## Tankus (May 10, 2020)

teqniq said:


> From the linked article, my bold. Seems like a fairly reasonable response/statement imo. But you are right, things are badly awry in the US, it may only be a question of time before things get really nasty:


Trumps going to stir some shit ,bigley  , if the elections do go ahead and he loses ... he will set up his own tv channel for his  ar15 touting  white beard bellys  and wind them up to maximum nuttery......


----------



## Ax^ (May 10, 2020)

so you can drive where you want

but if the police choose to they can give you a big fine?


----------



## Ax^ (May 10, 2020)

primary kids back to school WTF?


----------



## Ax^ (May 10, 2020)

We will be driven by economic pressure


----------



## wayward bob (May 10, 2020)

Ax^ said:


> primary kids back to school WTF?


beginning of june


----------



## wayward bob (May 10, 2020)

step3 = pubs


----------



## wayward bob (May 10, 2020)

i got my hopes up at him "serving notice"


----------



## Ax^ (May 10, 2020)

wayward bob said:


> beginning of june



Don't have kids so not that worried by really wtf are primary school kids missing

plus Kids are dens of fucking infections at the best of time 

so maybe keep the little bastards at home


----------



## wayward bob (May 10, 2020)

"everyone in government" except, errr, me and him, and him, and her, and him, and me again...


----------



## prunus (May 10, 2020)

Ax^ said:


> primary kids back to school WTF?



If... if... if...  it’s sufficiently hedged that “well we wanted to but you lot fucked it up so more lockdown for you” is nigh-on certainty.


----------



## cyril_smear (May 10, 2020)

don't forget the hand gestures Boris


----------



## wayward bob (May 10, 2020)

Ax^ said:


> Don't have kids so not that worried by really wtf are primary school kids missing


many parents are unable to work without primary childcare. the economy will be missing them.


----------



## cyril_smear (May 10, 2020)

What did he say about extending to a second household?


----------



## Ax^ (May 10, 2020)

wayward bob said:


> many parents are unable to work without primary childcare. the economy will be missing them.




said it in another thread Economic pressure will now drive the response to the virus

Proles get back to work


----------



## Buddy Bradley (May 10, 2020)

Ax^ said:


> primary kids back to school WTF?


Netherlands is doing the same, childcare and nurseries reopening tomorrow.


----------



## Ax^ (May 10, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> Netherlands is doing the same, childcare and nurseries reopening tomorrow.



thats nice plus they have less than 6 thousand deaths and a population of 17 million


----------



## Mogden (May 10, 2020)

So tomorrow masses of people will be stomping round the pavements, a mix of people going to work and those who now think they can spend all day outside twatting about. As well as lots of cars back out. Oh yes, social distancing will be no problem at all


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 10, 2020)

This is the WORLDWIDE thread - UK thread over there >>>>>>>


----------



## PD58 (May 10, 2020)

Another interesting read from a Belgian virologist who caught Covid

‘Finally, a virus got me.’ Scientist who fought Ebola and HIV reflects on facing death from COVID-19


----------



## Ax^ (May 10, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> This is the WORLDWIDE thread - UK thread over there >>>>>>>



atm likes can lead you to other threads


was busying posting in the UK thread during Bojo bullshit and ended up over here


----------



## elbows (May 11, 2020)

2hats said:


> Researchers at Los Alamos, Sheffield and Duke report identification of a more contagious strain (D614G) of SARS-CoV-2 across Europe and the US East coast that modifies the spike protein. "We see a mutated form of the virus very rapidly emerging, and over the month of March becoming the dominant pandemic form", wrote the lead author.
> 
> Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2
> DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.29.069054
> ...



I found another paper that mentions the D614G/D614S mutations, but this paper is not especially focussed on this one and related claims about it.



			https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.28.066977v1.full.pdf
		


I also found a virologist who wrote an article about why there is only one strain, and problems with being able to tell the difference between founder effect as opposed to selection pressure-related stuff. I cannot say whether they are 100% spot on with all aspects, but it is this sort of thing that makes me critical and wary of language regarding strains, and claims about transmissibility and particular mutations.





__





						There is one, and only one strain of SARS-CoV-2
					






					www.virology.ws
				






> The moment a preprint emerges describing a new patient isolate of SARS-CoV-2, with a change in the genome sequence, the world seems to explode with concern about a new viral ‘strain’. I want to explain why such angst is misguided and in the process explain exactly what is a virus strain and a virus isolate.





> I would also caution that making claims that SARS-CoV-2 is becoming more transmissible ignores the fact that the virus is already exceedingly transmissible among humans. For an amino acid change such as D614S to be positively selected, as opposed to being maintained as a consequence of the founder effect, requires selective pressure. For such an already highly transmissible virus, the nature of such selection pressure is difficult to discern.


----------



## frogwoman (May 11, 2020)

Spain had 123 deaths yesterday, the lowest since it started.


----------



## elbows (May 11, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Spain had 123 deaths yesterday, the lowest since it started.



Weekend numbers usually involve an artificial drop, but all the same Spains numbers have certainly been moving slowly in the right direction. For example deaths per day in Madrid peaked around well over 300, towards the end of April the deaths it was more like 60-70 per day, and more recently its been around 40 something.


----------



## weltweit (May 11, 2020)

South Korea

from 11/05/2020 South Korea struggles to contain new outbreak amid anti-gay backlash


> Authorities in South Korea are struggling to contain a new coronavirus outbreak linked to the capital’s nightclub district as a backlash against the country’s gay community increases, prompting fears LGBT people will fail to get tested out of fear of being outed.
> ..
> Of 35 new cases, 29 were found to be linked to Itaewon, the capital’s gay district, according to officials from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), bringing the total number of cases related to the clubs to 86.





> ..
> The media frenzy reached a new level when another infected man was found to have been to an LGBT sauna in Gangnam, prompting a slew of homophobic content in newspapers and online.



The article explains how victimised many gays in South Korea feel, that they may lose their jobs etc if tested and identified, and how their credit card spending is being shared with authorities in their bid to identify people at risk of infection.


----------



## weltweit (May 11, 2020)

Germany 

from 10/05/2020 Infection rate rises in Germany as lockdown eases


> Coronavirus infections are rising in Germany, official data shows, just days after the country eased its lockdown restrictions.
> ..
> Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a broad relaxation of national restrictions on Wednesday after talks with the leaders of Germany's 16 states.





> All shops are allowed to reopen, pupils will gradually return to class and the Bundesliga - Germany's top football league - will restart as soon as next weekend.
> ..
> But some have criticised Mrs Merkel's decision to relax those measures after speaking with the heads of the 16 states on Wednesday.





> The chancellor imposed an "emergency brake", requiring local authorities to reimpose restrictions if cases rise above a threshold of 50 per 100,000 people.
> ..
> And one district in the state of Thuringia reportedly recorded more than 80 infections per 100,000 people, thought to be due to outbreaks at care facilities.


----------



## Mation (May 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> South Korea
> 
> from 11/05/2020 South Korea struggles to contain new outbreak amid anti-gay backlash


 

Was just watching the BBC reporting on that. People required to give a name and contact (+ wear a mask) to get in to clubs, but some (we're told) leaving false details in fear of homophobic reprisals.

Many and varied are the ways in which this virus is showing up all the shit in ways people (who usually wouldn't) now have to care about. (That's not good; but it is stark.)


----------



## frogwoman (May 11, 2020)

weltweit said:


> South Korea
> 
> from 11/05/2020 South Korea struggles to contain new outbreak amid anti-gay backlash
> 
> ...



Yes SK has a serious homophobia problem if my ex's experience is anything to go by. She was seriously fucked up over it.


----------



## HAL9000 (May 11, 2020)

> A new White House policy was distributed to West Wing staff Monday directing them to wear masks at all times while working in the West Wing, according to sources familiar with the matter told ABC News.





> Secret Service agents close to the president and in the vicinity of the Oval Office will also begin wearing masks, one senior administration official said.
> 
> During the president’s trip to a Honeywell plant in Phoenix, Arizona, last week, agents who were already on the ground (not traveling with the president) were seen wearing masks. The Secret Services declined to comment for this story.











						New White House precautions include requiring masks in Trump's West Wing
					

On Monday, masks were required to be worn in the West Wing after two aides on the White House campus tested positive for coronavirus last week.




					abcnews.go.com
				





As you may remember....










						Coronavirus: Mike Pence flouts rule on masks at hospital
					

In a deleted tweet, the Mayo Clinic said the US vice-president had been told of their mask rules.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## weltweit (May 12, 2020)

South Korea


> South Korea says there are now 101 new cases of coronavirus linked to a nightclub district in Seoul


from 12/05/2020 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52627824


----------



## weltweit (May 12, 2020)

Germany 

from 11/05/2020 After weeks of relaxation, Germany sees some worrying COVID figures


> The reproduction or "R" rate — the rate at which a virus is believed to be spreading — appears to have accelerated for two consecutive days, the Robert Koch Institute said. Over the weekend, Germany's R rate went back over 1, deemed a critical tipping point by many epidemiologists and government leaders.
> ..
> At the beginning of May, the number was between .7 and .8 for several days. On Wednesday last week, as Merkel declared success in the first phase of Germany's battle with the virus and significantly eased lockdown measures, the R rate stood at .65.





> ..
> sis, scientists likely won't link the higher numbers seen over the weekend to the latest, and most significant relaxations of the lockdown, which were announced by the federal and state governments last Wednesday. Measures began to ease weeks before that, however, and the experts will be watching very closely for any continuation of the trend over the R rate of 1, and worrying even more if it goes up higher.


----------



## little_legs (May 12, 2020)

Per FT, it looks like Russia and Brazil are rapidly overtaking the UK.


----------



## teuchter (May 12, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Per FT, it looks like Russia and Brazil are rapidly overtaking the UK.


Russia a long way off UK numbers if you normalise for population


----------



## little_legs (May 12, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Russia a long way off UK numbers if you normalise for population
> 
> View attachment 212138


I take your point, but Russia is not as densely populated, and when you know this because you are from there, the numbers are very scary.


----------



## Doodler (May 12, 2020)

elbows said:


> [From the post on Vincent Racaniello's Virology blog]
> 
> 
> 
> > I would also caution that making claims that SARS-CoV-2 is becoming more transmissible ignores the fact that the virus is already exceedingly transmissible among humans. For an amino acid change such as D614S to be positively selected, as opposed to being maintained as a consequence of the founder effect, requires selective pressure. For such an already highly transmissible virus, the nature of such selection pressure is difficult to discern.



A ceiling effect? Covid-19 hasn't been in humans very long. The odds of it being optimised for human transmissibility while existing solely in bats or pangolins must surely be very low. A pre-lockdown R-value of 3 or 4 and a large majority of the human population still to infect must leave plenty of opportunity for improvement (from the virus's POV) I would have thought.


----------



## teuchter (May 12, 2020)

little_legs said:


> I take your point, but Russia is not as densely populated, and when you know this because you are from there, the numbers are very scary.


Well, it's more densely populated than Canada but seems to be doing better than them so far.

Doesn't stop the situation being pretty bad in localised areas of course.


----------



## little_legs (May 12, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Well, it's more densely populated than Canada but seems to be doing better than them so far.
> 
> Doesn't stop the situation being pretty bad in localised areas of course.


True. Doesn't help that healthcare in Russia is less than exemplary either.


----------



## Shechemite (May 12, 2020)

little_legs said:


> I take your point, but Russia is not as densely populated, and when you know this because you are from there, the numbers are very scary.



Do we know the comparitive death rate in Russia (and internationally) in terms of deaths (covid and/or non-covid) in congregate institutions (prisons, hospitals, care homes etc) as compared to the general population?


----------



## little_legs (May 12, 2020)

MadeInBedlam said:


> Do we know the comparitive death rate in Russia (and internationally) in terms of deaths (covid and/or non-covid) in congregate institutions (prisons, hospitals, care homes etc) as compared to the general population?


Good question. I don't know the answer, perhaps better informed people on here can point in the right direction.


----------



## Shechemite (May 12, 2020)

off topic I know but I’m finding it really fucking hard think at the moment.


----------



## Teaboy (May 12, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Russia a long way off UK numbers if you normalise for population
> 
> View attachment 212138



But the original comment was about number of people infected and your graph relates to covid deaths.  Russia has a somewhat surprising (highly suspicious) death rate compared to infections.

Given how clumsy their doctors are when near windows and how antiquated and downright dangerous their ventilators are I'd be surprised if the Russian hospitals are doing that much of a better job of keeping people alive.


----------



## teuchter (May 12, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> But the original comment was about number of people infected and your graph relates to covid deaths.  Russia has a somewhat surprising (highly suspicious) death rate compared to infections.
> 
> Given how clumsy their doctors are when near windows and how antiquated and downright dangerous their ventilators are I'd be surprised if the Russian hospitals are doing that much of a better job of keeping people alive.



On "confirmed cases" they've not overtaken the UK either.

But "confirmed cases" is fairly meaningless for comparing countries.

I'd agree that the death numbers seem suspiciously low, though.


----------



## Cid (May 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Germany
> 
> from 11/05/2020 After weeks of relaxation, Germany sees some worrying COVID figures



I wish people wouldn’t say stuff like ‘scientists have deemed’ wrt to R0 etc. R>1 isn’t some arbitrary figure, it by definition means that infection rates are increasing.


----------



## Cid (May 12, 2020)

teuchter said:


> On "confirmed cases" they've not overtaken the UK either.
> 
> But "confirmed cases" is fairly meaningless for comparing countries.
> 
> ...



It’s basically pointless making comparisons with Russia anyway. In the uk the government may piss about with figures to the best of its ability, but generally the underlying systems are robust enough that the figures are there if you need them, and can do the requisite digging. I suspect that is not quite the same in Russia.


----------



## Teaboy (May 12, 2020)

teuchter said:


> On "confirmed cases" they've not overtaken the UK either.
> 
> But "confirmed cases" is fairly meaningless for comparing countries.



Of course, everyone knows this.  Its been said thousands of times.  I was just pointing out that you were using a graph about deaths to reply to a comment about infections.


----------



## planetgeli (May 12, 2020)

little_legs said:


> I take your point, but Russia is not as densely populated,



I think a massive dose of skepticism has to be employed with figures all over the world. Due to an abysmal lack of testing, nearly all countries case figures do not reflect reality. And due to abysmal politics, some countries death figures also don't come close to reality.

Russia and Java interest me because their populations are near identical (144 million and 141 million). Their comparative population density figures are astonishing. 8.4 vs 940 people per sq. km.

I know it's generally accepted SE Asia is not as badly affected by Covid as much of the rest of the world but I can't believe the figures for Java anymore than I can accept those Russian figures. FWIW, Russia has some 230,000 cases and about 2,000 deaths. Java has about 10,000 identified cases and less than 1,000 deaths.

None of it particularly adds up does it?


----------



## Sunray (May 12, 2020)

wrong thread


----------



## weltweit (May 12, 2020)

It is tricky to compare countries, especially as the UK itself started with hospital deaths, now is showing all location deaths. However the ONS excess deaths figure is now 50,000 a figure which dwarfs both hospital and all location deaths. Which should we use to compare ourselves with other countries?


----------



## weltweit (May 12, 2020)

China is to test the whole population of Wuhan after some new cases emerged. They are apparently to test the whole population of 11 million over a period of 10 days. 

from 12/05/2020 Global report: Wuhan to test all as Germany pinpoints new Covid-19 outbreaks


> the Chinese city of Wuhan, the original centre of the pandemic, saying it planned to test all 11 million residents.


----------



## weltweit (May 12, 2020)

More on Wuhan 

from 11/05/2020 Wuhan in first virus cluster since end of lockdown


> Wuhan reported five new cases on Monday, after confirming its first case since 3 April on Sunday.
> 
> Authorities said the small cluster of cases were all from the same residential compound.





> ..
> All of the latest cases were previously classified as asymptomatic - meaning they tested positive for the virus but were not exhibiting clinical signs such as a cough or fever.
> 
> Such people can spread the virus despite not being sick, but China does not count asymptomatic cases in its official tally of confirmed infections until they show symptoms.


----------



## little_legs (May 13, 2020)

All Hong Kong residents can get a reusable mask courtesy HK government.


----------



## frogwoman (May 13, 2020)

little_legs said:


> True. Doesn't help that healthcare in Russia is less than exemplary either.



Yeah, I lived in Russia and didn't need a doctor when I was there but from what I've heard about and their healthcare and saw of other government agencies it can be quite bureaucratic and difficult to get registered and seen etc


----------



## frogwoman (May 13, 2020)

Where are you living now little_legs ?


----------



## little_legs (May 13, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Where are you living now little_legs ?


London


----------



## frogwoman (May 13, 2020)

little_legs said:


> London



I've sent you a PM


----------



## gentlegreen (May 13, 2020)

Has anyone else encountered the Facebook ads ?
Do we know who's behind them ?
They have the vibe of those dodgy right wing accounts during the election...


----------



## weltweit (May 13, 2020)

13/05/2020 How is lockdown being lifted across Europe?


----------



## weltweit (May 13, 2020)

Brazil 

from 13/05/2020 Brazil records highest daily rise in virus deaths


> registered 881 new deaths on Tuesday, the health ministry said. The total death toll now stands at 12,400.
> ..
> And experts say the real figure may be far higher due to a lack of testing in the country.
> 
> "Brazil is only testing people who end up in the hospital," Domingo Alves from the University of Säo Paulo Medical School told AFP news agency.





> ..
> The number of confirmed cases in the country currently stands at 177,589, officials say. It rose by more than 9,000 on Tuesday and overtook Germany's tally of 170,000.
> ..
> But far-right President Jair Bolsonaro has repeatedly downplayed the threat of the coronavirus and criticised governors and mayors for adopting strict restrictions to curb its spread.





> Earlier this week, he issued a decree that classified businesses such as gyms and hairdressers as "essential" services that were exempt from lockdowns. But at least 10 governors said they would not comply with the order.


----------



## Marty1 (May 13, 2020)

Massive uptake of hydroxychloroquine in France.









						Hydroxychloroquine–Number Of Prescriptions Explodes In France
					

Despite warnings around taking hydroxychloroquine to combat the symptoms of COVID-19, prescriptions in France have exploded as much as 7,000% in certain parts of the country.




					www.forbes.com


----------



## weltweit (May 13, 2020)

Germany 

12/05/2020 Germany not alarmed by infection rate rise


> Hundreds of workers in German slaughterhouses - many from Eastern Europe - have tested positive and now thousands more tests are being done in that sector. One slaughterhouse alone - in Coesfeld, North Rhine-Westphalia - has seen 260 cases.
> ..
> So in Germany, while the R is now slightly above 1, and may go higher, the authorities are concerned but not panicking.





> That's because it's estimated that fewer than 1,000 Germans are becoming infected every day.
> 
> So even if the rate of spread accelerates, the problem can be handled with careful surveillance and mass testing, because the numbers involved are manageable.





> By contrast, it's thought that in the UK something like 20,000 people are becoming infected every day - far fewer than at the height of the outbreak, but still a serious number.


----------



## zahir (May 13, 2020)

Not too promising for any thoughts of herd immunity developing.









						Covid-19 spreads to every African country - as it happened
					

Disease now present in every African country as Spanish study reveals 5% of the population has antibodies




					www.theguardian.com
				





> A nationwide study of more than 60,000 people in Spain suggests about 5% of the population – approximately 2 million people – have had the virus. According to the provisional results of tests designed by the health ministry and the Carlos III public health institute, 5% of those tested had produced antibodies. While the prevalence of the antibodies was similar in men and women, it was lower in children and babies. There were also significant regional variations: while Murcia, Melilla, Asturias and the Canary islands showed an infection rate of less than 2%, the proportion rose to more than 10% in the regions of Madrid and Castilla-La Mancha. As the health minister *Salvador Illa* made plain on Wednesday evening, the study shows herd immunity has not been achieved.


----------



## weltweit (May 13, 2020)

Yes zahir I was reading that WHO comment. I suppose though that without a vaccine we know it isn't going away, even those countries that have almost suppressed it - can't avoid reinfection from the outside. For us to be rid of it there has to be a vaccine.


----------



## David Clapson (May 13, 2020)

If that number is reliable, what can it tell us? Maybe we can get a mortality rate by looking at Spain's total excess deaths. I can't see that number here but maybe someone else can spot it Coronavirus: England's 'excess deaths' among the highest in Europe

Edit: I found a number for excess deaths in Spain: 30,692. Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries Crunch that with the number of people who've had it, 2 million, and you get a mortality rate of 1.5%. Obviously there are about a zillion caveats to this number, but still.


----------



## Ahlan (May 13, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> But the original comment was about number of people infected and your graph relates to covid deaths.  Russia has a somewhat surprising (highly suspicious) death rate compared to infections.
> 
> Given how clumsy their doctors are when near windows and how antiquated and downright dangerous their ventilators are I'd be surprised if the Russian hospitals are doing that much of a better job of keeping people alive.


Sorry, what are you on about.? From my experience Russia has a brilliant health care system..
Why do you doubt their numbers?
Germany also has irregular looking national death rate  statistics compares to the uk, do you not believe them either?


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 13, 2020)

Ahlan said:


> Germany also has better looking national  statistics than the uk, why believe them and not Russia?



Are you fucking serious?


----------



## Ahlan (May 13, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Are you fucking serious?


Yes. Why ask?


----------



## Ahlan (May 13, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Are you fucking serious?


Cuba; worth trusting their reporting credentials regarding health care?


----------



## Reno (May 13, 2020)

Why is every new member who joined recently some deranged troll ?


----------



## Ahlan (May 13, 2020)

Reno said:


> Why is every new member who joined recently some deranged troll ?


Are you referring to me?


----------



## yield (May 13, 2020)

Reno said:


> Why is every new member who joined recently some deranged troll ?


Keep wondering if it's just I spend more time on here? Does seem to be a lot more?


----------



## yield (May 13, 2020)

Ahlan said:


> Cuba; worth trusting their reporting credentials regarding health care?


No, why? Are you a communist?


----------



## miss direct (May 13, 2020)

Here in Turkey, children under 14 were allowed out today for the first time in seven weeks. I stayed at home. Hope they all had a nice time - heard some worrying stories about groups gathering, so hopefully we won't see a rise in cases in a few weeks. About to pass 4,000 deaths here. Very strange that things are getting somewhat back to normal while we still have a four day full on lock down from midnight on Friday until midnight on Tuesday next week  Getting really fed up, but IF the numbers are accurate, they've not done too bad a job here, especially when compared to the UK.


----------



## Ahlan (May 13, 2020)

yield said:


> No, why?


Why bother trusting any nation's statistics then?


yield said:


> Are you a communist?


Possibly


----------



## two sheds (May 13, 2020)

yield said:


> Keep wondering if it's just I spend more time on here? Does seem to be a lot more?



Lockdown, they're bored


----------



## Saul Goodman (May 13, 2020)

miss direct said:


> Here in Turkey, children under 14 were allowed out today for the first time in seven weeks.


I hope they've all been told to leave the virus outside the house when they return home.


----------



## frogwoman (May 13, 2020)

High SARS-CoV-2 Attack Rate Following Exposure at a Choir Practice ...
					

On March 17, 2020, a member of a Skagit County, Washington, choir informed Skagit County Public Health (SCPH) that several members of the 122-member choir had become ill.




					www.cdc.gov
				




After attending choir with one infected person 87% of participants developed COVID-19


----------



## Reno (May 13, 2020)

Ahlan said:


> Are you referring to me?


Well spottet. I didn't want to use the word "cunt" again, so for a change I used the word "troll". Sorry if that had you confused.


----------



## Ahlan (May 13, 2020)

Reno said:


> Well spottet. I didn't want to use the word "cunt" again, so for a change I used the word "troll". Sorry if that had you confused.


_Spotted_

Wow! You're a charmer.
Any particular reason why you're being so aggressive?


----------



## Humberto (May 13, 2020)

Cos nobody likes or trusts Putin. And you're brand new here probably.


----------



## Yossarian (May 13, 2020)

Russia's system is so good, doctors are given free flying lessons.









						Why are Russian coronavirus doctors mysteriously falling out of windows?
					

The three main theories, explained.




					www.vox.com


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 13, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> I think a massive dose of skepticism has to be employed with figures all over the world. Due to an abysmal lack of testing, nearly all countries case figures do not reflect reality. And due to abysmal politics, some countries death figures also don't come close to reality.
> 
> Russia and Java interest me because their populations are near identical (144 million and 141 million). Their comparative population density figures are astonishing. 8.4 vs 940 people per sq. km.
> 
> ...


If Russia's figures are to be believed, they're testing shit-loads, though. It could be a similar story to early Germany, with lots of positive tests but few deaths, one of the reasons being that the average age of those tested is far lower than in places where they only test the very sick.

Russia was also hit relatively late, so, again like Germany, its figures could rise a fair bit in the coming weeks, while still staying relatively low. And they may actually be protecting the old, I don't know. The thing about the mortality rate of c-19 is that it varies hugely by age. It makes more sense to talk of mortality rates rather than rate. Among healthy younger people, figures from healthcare workers in Ireland and elsewhere suggest a mortality rate among those testing positive who are young and healthy that is as low as 0.1 per cent. Among over-80s, it's more than 100 times that rate.


----------



## Ahlan (May 13, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Russia's system is so good, doctors are given free flying lessons.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Is that really a reliable news site and does it prove we cant trust the russian data? It's not like they're hiding the fact that there's an issue there.  They're reporting >10k cases a day


----------



## Saul Goodman (May 13, 2020)

Ahlan said:


> They're reporting >10k cases a day


It's remarkable how few of those are dying, comparatively.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 13, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> It's remarkable how few of those are dying, comparatively.


It's not so mysterious if their testing regime is to be believed. If they really have done 6 million tests, then they're not telling people with symptoms to stay at home like the UK did.

Assuming for a second that the number of tests they are reporting is correct, they've already overtaken Germany, which was lauded for testing early and often.

Another comparison with Germany, which was testing a lot but not quite as much:

When Germany hit 2,000 dead, it had around 110,000 cases. If Russia is testing more than twice as much as Germany was then (it's something in the order of 4 times as much, in fact), which it is if its figures for testing are to be believed, it's not so unbelievable that they should be finding twice as many cases for the same overall number infected.


----------



## Ahlan (May 13, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> It's remarkable how few of those are dying, comparatively.


As little Baby Jesus pointed out, they have the huge advantage of being inflicted later than other nations and have had the luxury of being able to apply best practice.
And their (national) health service is second to none.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 13, 2020)

Also, wait a week or two before making too hasty a judgement. It takes time for people to die.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 13, 2020)

Ahlan said:


> As little Baby Jesus pointed out, they have the huge advantage of being inflicted later than other nations and have had the luxury of being able to apply best practice.
> And their (national) health service is second to none.


It's a country with massive socio-economic inequality. I wouldn't praise the healthcare system of a country with life expectancy of 72 and infant mortality of nearly 6 per 1000 too hard. It's not just about having shiny flagship facilities. It's also about access.


----------



## Saul Goodman (May 13, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Assuming for a second that the number of tests they are reporting is correct


Therein lies the problem. I tend to take their figures with the entire contents of an Okhotsk salt mine. They may well be correct but Russia has quite a history of being economical with the truth.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 13, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> Therein lies the problem. I tend to take their figures with the entire contents of an Okhotsk salt mine. They may well be correct but Russia has quite a history of being economical with the truth.


Sure. But which bits are we disbelieving if they're claiming shitloads of testing as well as shitloads of positive tests? It does at least make sense that they're conducting shitloads of tests if they're finding so many new cases. 

I agree about being cautious, but I don't think their current official numbers are necessarily preposterous.


----------



## Saul Goodman (May 13, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Sure. But which bits are we disbelieving


I guess I'm at the stage where if they said fire burns, I'd have to stick my hand in one to make sure.


----------



## Humberto (May 13, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> I guess I'm at the stage where if they said fire burns, I'd have to stick my hand in one to make sure.



what polonium?


----------



## Marty1 (May 13, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> I guess I'm at the stage where if they said fire burns, I'd have to stick my hand in one to make sure.



Putin your hand into a fire is never advisable.


----------



## Reno (May 14, 2020)

Ahlan said:


> _Spotted_
> 
> Wow! You're a charmer.
> Any particular reason why you're being so aggressive?


It's a typo. As English isn't my first language or the one I mainly communicate in, I've turned off autocorrect. 

Maybe you aren't a troll or a cunt but anybody who trusts Putin strikes me at best, as a little naive.


----------



## Saul Goodman (May 14, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Putin your hand into a fire is never advisable.


I see what you did there.


----------



## spoooky (May 14, 2020)

editor said:


> *awaits reports of people at home overdosing on vast volumes of Vit C:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Dr Pierre Kory is reporting great success treating coronavirus patients with corticosteroids, vitamin c and heparin, he presented to the US Senate last week:

"Members of our group have now treated in excess of 100 hospitalized patients with our treatment protocol... nearly all survived, the two that died were in their eighties and had advanced medical chronic conditions. None of the patients had long stays on the ventilators, none were ventilator dependent, and most had short hospital stays and were discharged in general good health." 2:17

"Ascorbic acid... known as vitamin C, everyone dismisses it as a vitamin. Those of us who use it and know its physiology and its potency, it's not only a vitamin, it acts as a stress hormone in fighting off infections. It's critical and has synergistic capabilities along with steroids... we strongly promote that, it prevents the development of leaky blood vessels within the lung, and avoids the development of lung failure, it should always be used when paired with corticosteroids" 12:45


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 14, 2020)

New Zealand is re-opening.   



> Malls, retail stores and restaurants are all reopening Thursday in the South Pacific nation of 5 million, and many people are returning to their workplaces. But most gatherings will be limited to 10 people and social distancing guidelines will remain in place.
> 
> The reopening reflects the success New Zealand has experienced in its bold goal of eliminating the virus. The country reported no new cases of the virus on Tuesday and Wednesday. More than 1400 of the nearly 1500 people who contracted COVID-19 have recovered, while 21 have died.











						New Zealand sheds lockdown restrictions, reopens shops, restaurants, malls
					

New Zealand dropped most of its lockdown restrictions at midnight Wednesday, meaning that Thursday will see...




					www.9news.com.au


----------



## Ahlan (May 14, 2020)

Reno said:


> anybody who trusts Putin strikes me at best, as a little naive.


Maybe I am being naive. I just didn't see any reason to distrust their data.
 '...because Putin' hadn't occured to me as being such an important scientific factor.

Do we now reject the German results because Merkels goverment were complicit in widespread data manuipulation in the not so distant past?
And South Korea who've suffered data manaipulation from consecutive corrupt governments?


----------



## krtek a houby (May 14, 2020)

Reno said:


> Why is every new member who joined recently some deranged troll ?



There does seem to be a lot of it about. It's like it's spreading, like some kind of catchy thing that more and more are succumbing to.


----------



## krtek a houby (May 14, 2020)

Ahlan said:


> Maybe I am being naive. I just didn't see any reason to distrust their data.
> '...because Putin' hadn't occured to me as being such an important scientific factor.
> 
> Do we now reject the German results because Merkels goverment were complicit in widespread data manuipulation in the not so distant past?
> And South Korea who've suffered data manaipulation from consecutive corrupt governments?



What news sources would you trust?


----------



## Buddy Bradley (May 14, 2020)

This seems to be getting some attention in the last 24 hours - reports of a lot of kids presenting with an inflammatory syndrome, post-Coronavirus. This story is from Italy, I've also seen reports about similar observations in the US:









						Doctors in Italian hospital report "30-fold" jump in kids with inflammatory symptoms
					

Most of the affected children tested positive for coronavirus antibodies.




					www.axios.com
				




BBC saying it could be a delayed immune response. Just in time for the schools to reopen.









						Coronavirus: Children affected by rare Kawasaki-like disease
					

The reaction is extremely rare and only affects a tiny number of children seriously, medics say.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Reno (May 14, 2020)

Ahlan said:


> Maybe I am being naive. I just didn't see any reason to distrust their data.
> '...because Putin' hadn't occured to me as being such an important scientific factor.
> 
> Do we now reject the German results because Merkels goverment were complicit in widespread data manuipulation in the not so distant past?
> And South Korea who've suffered data manaipulation from consecutive corrupt governments?


I'm not going to engage with you any further till you have a posting history which gives some indication that you aren't a conspiraloon and/or a moron. Diving head first into a discussion to share your "provocative insights" isn't the best start here.


----------



## Doodler (May 14, 2020)

It seems lacking that Covid-19 doesn't have sneezing as a spreading tactic. It's the best way to get every motherfucker in the room.

Maybe the induce sneezing trick will evolve during  a second infection surge.


----------



## teuchter (May 14, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> This seems to be getting some attention in the last 24 hours - reports of a lot of kids presenting with an inflammatory syndrome


It's not "a lot" - it's tiny numbers, as both of the articles you posted say.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (May 14, 2020)

teuchter said:


> It's not "a lot" - it's tiny numbers, as both of the articles you posted say.


Tiny numbers, but significantly higher than you'd normally expect.


----------



## miss direct (May 14, 2020)

Just got back from the bank and was impressed by the measures they have in place. One customer in the branch at a time - others wait outside. There are screens between the customer and the bank worker, and you also have to sit around a meter away. All staff in masks and gloves, some with visors too. Very organised.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (May 14, 2020)

miss direct said:


> One customer in the branch at a time - others wait outside.


How does that work if every business does it (or some variation on the "only admit X persons inside at a time" rule)? Don't the queues start to run into each other after a while?


----------



## Doodler (May 14, 2020)

Doodler said:


> It seems lacking that Covid-19 doesn't have sneezing as a spreading tactic. It's the best way to get every motherfucker in the room.
> 
> Maybe the induce sneezing trick will evolve during  a second infection surge.



To frogwoman: it's not a great prospect but I would have thought it's possible. I mean, more possible than the virus mutating to make its carriers incredibly charismatic so everyone else wants to shake their hand.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 14, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> Tiny numbers, but significantly higher than you'd normally expect.


Enough to affect policy decisions,  though? Schools are germ factories at the best of times. There is always a non-zero chance that your kid will pick up something nasty at school. Does this additional thing change the scale of risk significantly? If not, and it looks like it probably doesn't, then it's not a reason to change policy.


----------



## Petcha (May 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> New Zealand is re-opening.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I just saw one of their scientific advisors on the news describing how they did it. They decided to avoid the whole 'flatten the curve' theory and instead completely obliterate it. And hey, it worked. No new cases in almost a week. People are in pubs and getting fucking haircuts. While I'm on day 50 of Come Dine With Me.


----------



## Marty1 (May 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> New Zealand is re-opening.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That’s a welcome bit of good news.

My gf has just told me that she’s going to get waxed and has an appointment at 5pm today.  Her usual beautician is closed as would be expected, so - she thought for a while that a house near us was operating as a beautician - lots of ladies pulling up onto their drive coming and going, so she popped along and was proved correct.  The house is pretty big and has a mammoth garden room on the back I expect that is being used for treatments.

Not sure what to make of it tbh, are they using PPE etc?  But I reckon there’s quite a big underground coronavirus economy underway across the country.


----------



## The39thStep (May 14, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> That’s a welcome bit of good news.
> 
> My gf has just told me that she’s going to get waxed and has an appointment at 5pm today.  Her usual beautician is closed as would be expected, so - she thought for a while that a house near us was operating as a beautician - lots of ladies pulling up onto their drive coming and going, so she popped along and was proved correct.  The house is pretty big and has a mammoth garden room on the back I expect that is being used for treatments.
> 
> Not sure what to make of it tbh, are they using PPE etc?  But I reckon there’s quite a big underground coronavirus economy underway across the country.


I was talking to my son last night who told me about hairdressers, beauticians all being run from houses locally in the garden or garage. Said they wore masks and only one customer at a time.


----------



## Petcha (May 14, 2020)

This article's from 2018









						Why Silicon Valley billionaires are prepping for the apocalypse in New Zealand
					

The long read: How an extreme libertarian tract predicting the collapse of liberal democracies – written by Jacob Rees-Mogg’s father – inspired the likes of Peter Thiel to buy up property across the Pacific




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## editor (May 14, 2020)

Petcha said:


> While I'm on day 50 of Come Dine With Me.


Great TV, mind.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 14, 2020)

Doodler said:


> To frogwoman: it's not a great prospect but I would have thought it's possible. I mean, more possible than the virus mutating to make its carriers incredibly charismatic so everyone else wants to shake their hand.


I was reading an article a little while ago that made the point that when a virus jumps species, it is not only a shock to the systems of the new host, it's also a shock to the systems of the virus itself. In order to make the jump, the virus needs to evolve just enough to survive in the new host, but not necessarily to survive in anything like an optimal way (although evolution doesn't find optimal - it only finds 'best available from here'). You're right that making people sneeze is a good trick for any human virus. Killing the host also isn't an optimal evolutionary strategy, which gives some hope in its future evolution. It does appear to be evolving to become more easily transmitted, though - requiring fewer, or less intense, exposures.

It's always hard to predict evolutionary selection pressures as evolution is a story told backwards, but at first thought, I would think totally asymptomatic transmission would be the ultimate strategy to evolve into.


----------



## frogwoman (May 14, 2020)

From SARS-COV-2's point of view it doesn't really need to change much as its spreading very nicely as it is. Which does give some hope for a vaccine tbh.


----------



## teuchter (May 14, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> From SARS-COV-2's point of view it doesn't really need to change much as its spreading very nicely as it is. Which does give some hope for a vaccine tbh.


It doesn't really work in terms of "needs to". It'll change if some mutation happens to make it more spreadable.


----------



## teuchter (May 14, 2020)

Presumably if we have a situation where most of the transmission is happening in hospitals, then that is not particularly good news for how it will evolve, because it will tend to select for varieties that cause severe symptoms (isn't this kind of what happened with the Spanish flu)?


----------



## Anju (May 14, 2020)

Fully prepared before they had their first case. A really impressive response. Bloody communists.


Ed - fixed link - The coronavirus slayer! How Kerala's rock star health minister helped save it from Covid-19


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 14, 2020)

Anju said:


> Fully prepared before they had their first case. A really impressive response. Bloody communists.
> 
> The coronavirus slayer! How Kerala's rock star health minister helped save it from Covid-19 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/the-coronavirus-slayer-how-keralas-rock-star-health-minister-helped-save-it-from-covid-19?



Link doesn't work. 

This does - The coronavirus slayer! How Kerala's rock star health minister helped save it from Covid-19


----------



## IC3D (May 14, 2020)

Is it surprising the most social distant country in the world did well. I wonder how strict their quarantine at the airport is now?


----------



## Teaboy (May 14, 2020)

Ahlan said:


> Sorry, what are you on about.? From my experience Russia has a brilliant health care system..
> Why do you doubt their numbers?
> Germany also has irregular looking national death rate  statistics compares to the uk, do you not believe them either?



Well, seen as you asked.  From looking at basic its stats it seems that in Germany 4.5% of those who tested positive sadly died.  In Russia it is currently less than 1%.  So yes, I do find Russia's a bit strange, it could be an outlier.  

As for my view of Russian healthcare, well I've actually visited a couple of Russian hospitals (getting friends patched up) and both times they were very decent if quite expensive (could have been private hospitals, we just go where we're told).  My point being that I don't think they are that much better than anyone else's to justify that low death to positive test ratio and in a country where opposition politicians and jounos have a habit of getting themselves killed I'm a bit sceptical.*


*usual and becoming tiresome caveat of acknowledging that every country is cooking the books to a degree.


----------



## Yossarian (May 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> New Zealand is re-opening.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Very impressive - I wonder if the Tories are going to try to reject any comparison to New Zealand because New Zealand is an island nation.


----------



## Teaboy (May 14, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> That’s a welcome bit of good news.
> 
> My gf has just told me that she’s going to get waxed and has an appointment at 5pm today.  Her usual beautician is closed as would be expected, so - she thought for a while that a house near us was operating as a beautician - lots of ladies pulling up onto their drive coming and going, so she popped along and was proved correct.  The house is pretty big and has a mammoth garden room on the back I expect that is being used for treatments.
> 
> Not sure what to make of it tbh, are they using PPE etc?  But I reckon there’s quite a big underground coronavirus economy underway across the country.



Well, aren't new cases plateauing in the north maybe creeping up?  Might have something to do with it.


----------



## Doodler (May 14, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Killing the host also isn't an optimal evolutionary strategy, which gives some hope in its future evolution.



Why isn't it optimal? Some pathogens get more virulent, some get less, some stay the same.


----------



## Saul Goodman (May 14, 2020)

Doodler said:


> Why isn't it optimal? Some pathogens get more virulent, some get less, some stay the same.


It's hard to propagate when you've been cremated.


----------



## Doodler (May 14, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> From SARS-COV-2's point of view it doesn't really need to change much as its spreading very nicely as it is. Which does give some hope for a vaccine tbh.



I don't know how easy it is or not to develop a vaccine, a lot of the development time seems to be for reasons of caution and safety. Maybe in a time of crisis things might be sped up to accept a vaccine that inadvertently kills something like 1 in 100,000 patients rather than 1 in a million.  I wouldn't really bet on Covid-19 changing in one direction or another, but it seems unrealistic for it not to change somehow. It's still early days.


----------



## Doodler (May 14, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> It's hard to propagate when you've been cremated.



So why isn't immortality the norm for organisms?


----------



## Anju (May 14, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Link doesn't work.
> 
> This does - The coronavirus slayer! How Kerala's rock star health minister helped save it from Covid-19



Thanks


----------



## 2hats (May 14, 2020)

Doodler said:


> So why isn't immortality the norm for organisms?


Shorter generational timespans favour genetic diversity (turnover) per unit time and thus confer evolutionary adaptational advantage.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 14, 2020)

Doodler said:


> So why isn't immortality the norm for organisms?


You misunderstand the aim here. Firstly it is only an apparent 'aim'. As I said, it can only be read backwards. But selection pressure specifically produces death, in fact. Without death, there can be no evolution, no life. So the 'aim' that isn't really an aim is for the species to reproduce. Those mutations that spread more readily will come to dominate and pass on their characteristics.

That said, viruses don't exactly die. They are single-united (not even cells), so they are effectively immortal so long as they keep reproducing. But each new generation will be slightly different from the last. That's evolution!

Single-celled organisms like bacteria are effectively immortal, mind you. It's only us complex organisms that need to grow from a single cell into a bigger thing at each generation that have bodies that die. And as Stephen Jay Gould pointed out, life on Earth is, and always has been, 'mostly bacteria'.


----------



## Saul Goodman (May 14, 2020)

Doodler said:


> So why isn't immortality the norm for organisms?


We're working on it.


----------



## JimW (May 14, 2020)

I'm going to achieve immortality if it kills me.


----------



## maomao (May 14, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> How does that work if every business does it (or some variation on the "only admit X persons inside at a time" rule)? Don't the queues start to run into each other after a while?


Six weeks ago the queues outside the banks were so long here the high street was basically filled with people queueing for different banks two metres apart and yes they did all seem to be running into each other. It was the most 'apocalypse' moment for me so far.


----------



## quimcunx (May 14, 2020)

IC3D said:


> Is it surprising the most social distant country in the world did well. I wonder how strict their quarantine at the airport is now?



Kerala has also done well.  Maybe doing well isn't about being socially distant.


----------



## Doodler (May 14, 2020)

2hats said:


> Shorter generational timespans favour genetic diversity (turnover) per unit time and thus confer evolutionary adaptational advantage.



Maybe I'm wrong (I am on most things) but would guess that the issue of viral lethality is not unlike that of senescence and death in organisms. If a trait promotes reproductive success in youth, any negative effects it has later in life are offset by that same reproductive success.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (May 14, 2020)

Doodler said:


> To frogwoman: it's not a great prospect but I would have thought it's possible. I mean, more possible than the virus mutating to make its carriers incredibly charismatic so everyone else wants to shake their hand.


I personally wouldn't mind a dose of the CHARISMAVID-20


----------



## Doodler (May 14, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> We're working on it.



The super rich will get it first. But will they be open about it or will they try to conceal the fact, and if so how? There's only so long people can say 'Branson doesn't seem to be getting any older, it's weird' before the penny will drop.


----------



## Doodler (May 14, 2020)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> I personally wouldn't mind a dose of the CHARISMAVID-20



Wait till the STD variant comes along!


----------



## IC3D (May 14, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> Kerala has also done well.  Maybe doing well isn't about being socially distant.


New Zealand 18 people per km sq
Kerala 860 people per km sq

Just looked it up. 
Makes the story of the health minister and communists of Kerala all the more remarkable.


----------



## miss direct (May 14, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> How does that work if every business does it (or some variation on the "only admit X persons inside at a time" rule)? Don't the queues start to run into each other after a while?


I'm lucky because I live in an area which isn't particularly crowded, apart from in the summer when people come to go to the beach (currently closed, and it's Ramadan anyway which affects things.) I don't know what would happen in a busier area. Actually, I do. I've seen scenes from other parts of Istanbul with crowds of people pushing each other.


----------



## IC3D (May 14, 2020)

Doodler said:


> Wait till the STD variant comes along!







__





						Coronavirus detected in semen of recovering COVID-19 patients • PET
					

The novel coronavirus can persist in the semen of men who are recovering following infection, according to a new study...




					www.bionews.org.uk


----------



## Doodler (May 14, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> You misunderstand the aim here. Firstly it is only an apparent 'aim'. As I said, it can only be read backwards. But selection pressure specifically produces death, in fact. Without death, there can be no evolution, no life. So the 'aim' that isn't really an aim is for the species to reproduce. Those mutations that spread more readily will come to dominate and pass on their characteristics.
> 
> That said, viruses don't exactly die. They are single-united (not even cells), so they are effectively immortal so long as they keep reproducing. But each new generation will be slightly different from the last. That's evolution!
> 
> Single-celled organisms like bacteria are effectively immortal, mind you. It's only us complex organisms that need to grow from a single cell into a bigger thing at each generation that have bodies that die. And as Stephen Jay Gould pointed out, life on Earth is, and always has been, 'mostly bacteria'.



Imagine a virus that evolves to suppress the host's immune system. This is bad news for the host - it becomes vulnerable to all kinds of secondary infections. But so long as this made the virus more infectious, why wouldn't the trait of immunosuppression be selected for?


----------



## 2hats (May 14, 2020)

Doodler said:


> Wait till the STD variant comes along!





2hats said:


> Meanwhile researchers spot SARS-CoV-2 RNA in COVID-19 patients' semen, raising the possibility (though perhaps a slim one) of sexual transmission (cf ebola, zika). Though transmission via the respiratory route during sex is almost certainly more likely anyway.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## quimcunx (May 14, 2020)

IC3D said:


> New Zealand 18 people per km sq
> Kerala 860 people per km sq
> 
> Just looked it up.
> Makes the story of the health minister and communists of Kerala all the more remarkable.



Nothing we couldn't  have done here if we had the will.


----------



## Petcha (May 14, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> Nothing we couldn't  have done here if we had the will.



Stories like NZ and Kerala put right into focus how badly managed this has all been. I admit I was personally resistant to locking down and closing the airports, thinking it was all a bit heavy handed but by god I was wrong. I don't profess to be a scientific expert though as the idiots they roll out to the press conferences every day do. If I fucked up anything like this badly at my job I'd be sacked and my reputation in the industry completely destroyed. And yet they keep coming out. Every day. With lies and obfuscation. 

Their five 'tests' have not been met. So why am I looking out at the window at a busy street?


----------



## Petcha (May 14, 2020)

I also assume the leaders of those two places actually showed up to crucial meetings at the outset to develop an effective plan instead of having their trotters up at their country estates


----------



## teuchter (May 14, 2020)

It's certainly impressive what Kerala has managed but you can't ignore various significant differences between Kerala and the UK.

The population is about 35 million (about half the UK population).
It looks like they receive about 1 million international arrivals a year.

Compare that with just Heathrow airport, which sees about 75 million international arrivals a year.

If the UK had stopped international arrivals at around the same point as Kerala had done, who knows how many cases would already have been here - might have been 100x the number that Kerala then managed to get on top of.


----------



## Ahlan (May 14, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Well, seen as you asked.  From looking at basic its stats it seems that in Germany 4.5% of those who tested positive sadly died.  In Russia it is currently less than 1%.  So yes, I do find Russia's a bit strange, it could be an outlier.
> 
> As for my view of Russian healthcare, well I've actually visited a couple of Russian hospitals (getting friends patched up) and both times they were very decent if quite expensive (could have been private hospitals, we just go where we're told).  My point being that I don't think they are that much better than anyone else's to justify that low death to positive test ratio and in a country where opposition politicians and jounos have a habit of getting themselves killed I'm a bit sceptical.*
> 
> ...


Russia has 196K active cases compared to Germany's 15k, so those stats could well level out. 
Russia's low stats seem to correlate with other eastern european and batlic states, compared to the high numbers seen across westen european countries. 
Germany (and Austria) appear to 'blend' the two clusters by averaging east and west out.

Maybe corona just doesn't get on very well with a pickled gurkin and vodka diet?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 14, 2020)

Doodler said:


> Imagine a virus that evolves to suppress the host's immune system. This is bad news for the host - it becomes vulnerable to all kinds of secondary infections. But so long as this made the virus more infectious, why wouldn't the trait of immunosuppression be selected for?


Selection pressures don't operate in isolation, which is why it is impossible to predict how evolution will go - we just don't have enough information to say. In this case, sure you make the host more vulnerable to infection, but there is a cost, which is making the host more likely to die, or in the case of humans, realise they're sick and self-isolate, or something else that I haven't thought of.

Human lockdown policies are in and of themselves an evolutionary selection pressure for this virus, which reproduces at such a rate that its evolution can be charted over the course of months or even weeks.


----------



## frogwoman (May 14, 2020)

Racaniello's article seemed to suggest that a lot of the mutations were just mutations seen in individual patients (and that the virus particles in the same patient could also differ)


----------



## frogwoman (May 14, 2020)

In terms of lockdown wouldn't that select for longer incubation periods?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 14, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> In terms of lockdown wouldn't that select for longer incubation periods?


Yep might do. It's bound to be a selection pressure, and possibly a strong one. But it might lead to a 'smash and grab' pressure to get done quickly before you're found out. Hard to guess which directions it will push in. Evolution is cleverer than us.


----------



## quimcunx (May 14, 2020)

teuchter said:


> It's certainly impressive what Kerala has managed but you can't ignore various significant differences between Kerala and the UK.
> 
> The population is about 35 million (about half the UK population).
> It looks like they receive about 1 million international arrivals a year.
> ...



cities/states/countries are all different with different challenges.   If the figures had been reversed  what reasons would people posit for that?  If we demanded to know why Kerala did so badly compared to the UK?  What significant differences couldn't we ignore then? Well the UK is very very rich, Kerala is many many times poorer.  Kerala is far more densely populated than the UK. Imagine if they'd had to isolate in overcrowded unsanitary houses for weeks and months  instead of palatial houses and flats like  they did in the UK?  Kerala doesn't have a natural border it can defend like the UK did.  etc.  etc.


----------



## Doodler (May 14, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Selection pressures don't operate in isolation, which is why it is impossible to predict how evolution will go



I bet you can make some predictions in the short term. If some virus has near 100% lethality, like myxomatosis did in rabbits, it's pretty safe to predict the next move won't be to get worse.

Coivd-19 might become more or less lethal, or more or less transmissible, or some combination of those factors.  It's not been in humans long so stasis seems unlikely. There are pundits claiming that it's not going to mutate in any significant way or that it'll become less lethal because that's what happens with infectious diseases except when it doesn't, like with smallpox, yellow fever, malaria. I think they're motivated by the desire to spread some good news because that's what people want to hear.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 14, 2020)

Doodler said:


> I bet you can make some predictions in the short term. If some virus has near 100% lethality, like myxomatosis did in rabbits, it's pretty safe to predict the next move is to become less lethal - it can't get worse.
> 
> Coivd-19 might become more or less lethal, or more or less transmissible, or some combination of those factors.  It's not been in humans long so stasis seems unlikely. There are pundits claiming that it's not going to mutate in any significant way or that it'll become less lethal because that's what happens with infectious diseases except when it doesn't, like with smallpox, yellow fever, malaria. I think they're motivated by the desire to spread some good news because that's what people want to hear.


There is reason to be optimistic because other coronaviruses are thought to have evolved in the past to become less lethal over time - for instance, the one now believed to have been responsible for 'Russian flu' in 1880, which is still around and now part of the collection of bugs we lump together as 'colds'. But we don't know, you're right.

I'd have to dig out the reference, but biologists have quantified the extent to which a trait needs to be beneficial to be selected for. It's not much - just a slight edge over your contemporaries can be enough.


----------



## teuchter (May 14, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> cities/states/countries are all different with different challenges.   If the figures had been reversed  what reasons would people posit for that?  If we demanded to know why Kerala did so badly compared to the UK?  What significant differences couldn't we ignore then? Well the UK is very very rich, Kerala is many many times poorer.  Kerala is far more densely populated than the UK. Imagine if they'd had to isolate in overcrowded unsanitary houses for weeks and months  instead of palatial houses and flats like  they did in the UK?  Kerala doesn't have a natural border it can defend like the UK did.  etc.  etc.



Looks like Kerala did the right thing for Kerala. Like I said, it's impressive what they've achieved.

There are so many differences between all countries, and there's so much we still don't know, that I think it's too early to be saying look how X country managed vs Y country; this means that Y country obviously made massive mistakes that were totally foreseeable and had they pursued X country's strategy then everything obviously would have been loads better.


----------



## quimcunx (May 14, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Looks like Kerala did the right thing for Kerala. Like I said, it's impressive what they've achieved.
> 
> There are so many differences between all countries, and there's so much we still don't know, that I think it's too early to be saying look how X country managed vs Y country; this means that Y country obviously made massive mistakes that were totally foreseeable and had they pursued X country's strategy then everything obviously would have been loads better.



Willingness to act quickly seems to be a theme.  

I don't feel it's necessary to compare the UK to anyone else to be confident our govt have been doing very badly.


----------



## Teaboy (May 14, 2020)

Ahlan said:


> Russia has 196K active cases compared to Germany's 15k, so those stats could well level out.
> Russia's low stats seem to correlate with other eastern european and batlic states, compared to the high numbers seen across westen european countries.
> Germany (and Austria) appear to 'blend' the two clusters by averaging east and west out.
> 
> Maybe corona just doesn't get on very well with a pickled gurkin and vodka diet?



Yes.  Russia, I believe also has a younger population or at least less old people than Western countries and it is the elderly who are most vulnerable.  I should qualify that I'm not critical of Russian healthcare but I am suspicious of the death rate compared to confirmed cases.


----------



## teuchter (May 14, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> Willingness to act quickly seems to be a theme.
> 
> I don't feel it's necessary to compare the UK to anyone else to be confident our govt have been doing very badly.


I think it's too soon to be confident about anything.


----------



## quimcunx (May 14, 2020)

teuchter said:


> I think it's too soon to be confident about anything.



Even if the results end up ok, there is a long list of ruthless incompetency.


----------



## Saul Goodman (May 14, 2020)

teuchter said:


> I think it's too soon to be confident about anything.


I don't think it is. I think it's blatantly obvious how badly Boris has handled this, and it's not over yet.


----------



## little_legs (May 14, 2020)

This is what travel without a vaccine is like, check out this long but interesting thread.


----------



## extra dry (May 14, 2020)

don't veiw if you are effected by the sight of blood. Looking at 12 cases of people who died with the virus. Pictures of lungs and blood clots.


----------



## frogwoman (May 14, 2020)

What is it? it's not an anti vaxxer video is it?


----------



## nagapie (May 14, 2020)

Covid 19 and Africa


----------



## LDC (May 14, 2020)

extra dry said:


> don't veiw if you are effected by the sight of blood.




FFS, give some idea of what that is please. Context, content, etc.


----------



## Saul Goodman (May 14, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> FFS, give some idea of what that is please. Context, content, etc.


Something about blood clots and a snake eating a giraffe, although I think the snake and giraffe part might have been me dreaming, when I fell asleep.


----------



## editor (May 14, 2020)

extra dry said:


> don't veiw if you are effected by the sight of blood.



Come on - you know the rules here if you're posting in a thread like this. Please explain what this 13 min video is about  and why people should watch it- and if it's gory, stick it behind spoiler tags with an explanation. Thanks.


----------



## HAL9000 (May 14, 2020)

Bleak article about trump (and long), I've not read all of it just skimmed it.


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...371e24b679ed&usg=AOvVaw1hmIPvYmQlCo7lmWsBxWCo

Fail to prepare incase it spook the market...



> “Jared [Kushner] had been arguing that testing too many people, or ordering too many ventilators, would spook the markets and so we just shouldn’t do it,” says a Trump confidant who speaks to the president frequently. “That advice worked far more powerfully on him than what the scientists were saying. He thinks they always exaggerate.”



Things might get a lot worse...



> “Trump is caught in a box which keeps getting smaller,” says George Conway, a Republican lawyer who is married to Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s senior counsellor. “In my view he is a sociopath and a malignant narcissist. When a person suffering from these disorders feels the world closing in on them, their tendencies get worse. They lash out and fantasise and lose any ability to think rationally.” Conway is known for taunting Trump on Twitter (to great effect, it should be added: Trump often retaliates). Yet without exception, everyone I interviewed, including the most ardent Trump loyalists, made a similar point to Conway. Trump is deaf to advice, said one. He is his own worst enemy, said another. He only listens to family, said a third. He is mentally imbalanced, said a fourth. America, in other words, should brace itself for a turbulent six months ahead – with no assurance of a safe landing.



Its hardly a surprise


----------



## weltweit (May 14, 2020)

China Wuhan

It seems despite it being said that China would test the 11m population in 10 days this actually won't be possible, existing arrangements could test 100,000 a day. But they are going to do extensive testing.

14/05/2020 Can China test an entire city in just 10 days?


----------



## Supine (May 14, 2020)

Doodler said:


> Imagine a virus that evolves to suppress the host's immune system. This is bad news for the host - it becomes vulnerable to all kinds of secondary infections. But so long as this made the virus more infectious, why wouldn't the trait of immunosuppression be selected for?



I think you just invented HiV


----------



## weltweit (May 14, 2020)

Germany and apps 

13/05/2020 German coronavirus app takes different path to NHS


> Germany's forthcoming coronavirus contact-tracing app will trigger alerts only if users test positive for Covid-19.
> 
> That puts it at odds with the NHS app, which instead relies on users self-diagnosing via an on-screen questionnaire.





> ..
> BBC News technology correspondent Rory Cellan-Jones said: "The NHS is taking a big gamble in choosing to alert app users when they have been in contact with someone who has merely reported symptoms.
> 
> "It could make the app fast and effective - or it could mean users become exasperated by a blizzard of false alarms."





> ..
> Ms Merkel said SAP and Deutsche Telekom - which are co-developing Germany's app - were waiting for Google and Apple to release a software interface before they could complete their work.
> 
> And BBC News has learned the two US technology companies plan to release the finished version of their API (application programming interface) as soon as Thursday.


----------



## Doodler (May 14, 2020)

Supine said:


> I think you just invented HiV



Or measles.


----------



## spring-peeper (May 14, 2020)

Iceland plans to reopen for tourists by June 15, with COVID-19 tests available for every arrival
					

Iceland, which has a population of about 364,000, has had just 1,803 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus and 10 related deaths.




					www.insider.com
				






> Iceland's prime minister has announced plans to reopen the country's borders to tourists by June 15.
> 
> The country plans to allow travelers to avoid a 14-day quarantine by taking a free COVID-19 test upon arrival at the airport, according to Lonely Planet.
> 
> ...


----------



## weltweit (May 14, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> Iceland plans to reopen for tourists by June 15, with COVID-19 tests available for every arrival
> 
> 
> Iceland, which has a population of about 364,000, has had just 1,803 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus and 10 related deaths.
> ...





> "Iceland's strategy of large-scale testing, tracing, and isolating have proven effective so far. We want to build on that experience of creating a safe place for those who want a change of scenery after what has been a tough spring for all of us."



I suppose it is things like this that could persuade some people to fly again sooner rather than later.


----------



## weltweit (May 14, 2020)

JimW said:


> I'm going to achieve immortality if it kills me.


Or as Woody Allen said: 

I don't want to achieve immortality through my work, I want to achieve it through not dying!


----------



## Saul Goodman (May 14, 2020)

JimW said:


> I'm going to achieve immortality if it kills me.


I plan on living forever. So far so good.


----------



## weltweit (May 14, 2020)

South Korea 

13/05/2020 Cheating couples caught by coronavirus tracking app in South Korea


> A coronavirus tracking app in South Korea accidentally exposed couples who were cheating on their partners, a Channel 4 documentary has revealed.
> ..
> A tracking app, developed by a 19-year-old IT whizz, was able to start tracing where people had been so that the government could alert those they may have had contact with.





> ..
> The app went as far as checking the GPS on people’s phones to see where they’d been, their credit cards to check where they ate and used CCTV to monitor their movements too.



and

from 14/05/2020 South Korea to grant more privacy to coronavirus patients amid fears of LGBT+ discrimination


> South Korean health authorities said on Thursday they would revise their practice of publicising the travel routes of coronavirus patients due to fears of a backlash against people who attended nightclubs at the centre of a new outbreak.


----------



## extra dry (May 15, 2020)

editor said:


> Come on - you know the rules here if you're posting in a thread like this. Please explain what this 13 min video is about  and why people should watch it- and if it's gory, stick it behind spoiler tags with an explanation. Thanks.




 Sorry Editor, Frogwoman and other Urbs, its a bit late here and I wasn't thinking straight.

The video concerns the results of 12 Autopsies from German people who died with the virus, not all from the virus but resulting effects of having the virus.

  I got from it that blood cloting is seen both in lungs and other areas of the body.

 The main blood/unsettleing pictures are of the lungs and the blood cloting in viens. If you have seen 'a lung of a smoker' this virus effects them in a different way turning areas of lung blue/white. 

  Its quite indepth and serious, it has no anti-vaxer or snake oil BS.


----------



## extra dry (May 15, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> Something about blood clots and a snake eating a giraffe, although I think the snake and giraffe part might have been me dreaming, when I fell asleep.


Its not anything to do with snakes and giraffes.

I had a dream last night that I was eating the worlds largest marshmellow, when I woke up my pillow had disappered.

This is a joke by the way.


----------



## William of Walworth (May 15, 2020)

extra dry said:


> Sorry Editor, Frogwoman and other Urbs, its a bit late here and I wasn't thinking straight.
> The video concerns the results of 12 Autopsies from German people who died with the virus, not all from the virus but resulting effects of having the virus.
> I got from it that blood cloting is seen both in lungs and other areas of the body.
> 
> *The main blood/unsettleing pictures are of the lungs and the blood cloting in viens. If you have seen 'a lung of a smoker' this virus effects them in a different way turning areas of lung blue/white.*




I think I might skip this 13 minute joy! 



> Its quite indepth and serious, it has no anti-vaxer or snake oil BS.



But it's a big relief to hear that this footage is free of nonsense, by the sound of it


----------



## Yossarian (May 15, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> Iceland plans to reopen for tourists by June 15, with COVID-19 tests available for every arrival
> 
> 
> Iceland, which has a population of about 364,000, has had just 1,803 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus and 10 related deaths.
> ...



I'd be more tempted to go if they were testing people before departure, not on arrival - I wouldn't want to gamble on getting infected during the flight and having to spend 14 days cooped up in a hotel paying Icelandic room service prices.


----------



## frogwoman (May 15, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I'd be more tempted to go if they were testing people before departure, not on arrival - I wouldn't want to gamble on getting infected during the flight and having to spend 14 days cooped up in a hotel paying Icelandic room service prices.



Well if you get it you might have a lot worse things to worry about than the hotel


----------



## teqniq (May 15, 2020)

Grim 









						Iraqi doctor's fight with virus lays bare a battered system
					

BAGHDAD (AP) — Dr. Marwa al-Khafaji’s homecoming after 20 days in a hospital isolation ward was met by spite...




					apnews.com


----------



## bimble (May 15, 2020)

The Uk has had a thousand times more deaths from Covid than Guatemala has, so far. I got this text from my friend there today who went on to ask how come things are getting looser over here . So very strange.
This looks so complicated I don’t know how it can be thought reasonable to make things this hard for people. Full curfew means not even allowed to deliver food parcels to people let alone go bloody jogging.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (May 15, 2020)

HAL9000 said:


> Bleak article about trump (and long), I've not read all of it just skimmed it.
> 
> 
> https://www.ft.com/content/97dc7de6-940b-11ea-abcd-371e24b679ed
> ...


paywal protected :-(


----------



## frogwoman (May 15, 2020)

Packed hospital wards cast doubt on Nicaragua's low coronavirus count, doctors say


----------



## frogwoman (May 15, 2020)

Doctors Say Nicaragua Regime Hiding True COVID-19 Figures; Cases May Exceed 1,000
					

Nicaragua has reported just 25 cases of COVID-19 and only eight deaths. But Nicaraguan doctors there and in South Florida are speaking up with a much more…




					www.wlrn.org
				












						Guardas de seguridad de hospitales obligados a entierros exprés, denuncian fuentes internas | Nicaragua Investiga
					

Hospital Manolo Morales al borde del colapso. Cuando alguien fallece por COVID19, en esa misma sala los cadáveres son envueltos en una bolsa negra, la cual es sellada y luego fumigada por fuera. A partir de ahí, los familiares tienen una hora para recoger el cuerpo y enterrarlo Dos fuentes...




					www.nicaraguainvestiga.com
				




Jeez


----------



## weltweit (May 15, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Packed hospital wards cast doubt on Nicaragua's low coronavirus count, doctors say


I don't get these governments denying the scale of the covid-19 issue in their countries. Everyone knows how virulent it is and that it does not stop unless it is denied hosts, but they persist, not here oh no, not here .. yea right!


----------



## weltweit (May 15, 2020)

More comment, from Forbes, on the possibility of a Wuhan Lab as the origin of the virus

from 01/05/2020 Wuhan Lab As Coronavirus Source Gains Traction


----------



## HAL9000 (May 15, 2020)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> paywal protected :-(




Search for

"Inside Trump’s coronavirus meltdown"

in google, pick the first ft result.   That worked for me.   If it works for you, its an odd pay wall that can be by passed by a google search.


----------



## cyril_smear (May 15, 2020)

HAL9000 said:


> Search for
> 
> "Inside Trump’s coronavirus meltdown"
> 
> in google, pick the first ft result.   That worked for me.   If it works for you, its an odd pay wall that can be by passed by a google search.



too long; what's the gist of it?


----------



## Supine (May 15, 2020)

cyril_smear said:


> too long; what's the gist of it?



Trump had a meltdown


----------



## two sheds (May 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> Trump had a meltdown



too long; what's the gist of it?


----------



## HAL9000 (May 15, 2020)

cyril_smear said:


> too long; what's the gist of it?



Fail to prepare incase it spook the market...




> “Jared [Kushner] had been arguing that testing too many people, or ordering too many ventilators, would spook the markets and so we just shouldn’t do it,” says a Trump confidant who speaks to the president frequently. “That advice worked far more powerfully on him than what the scientists were saying. He thinks they always exaggerate.”


 


Things might get a lot worse...




> “Trump is caught in a box which keeps getting smaller,” says George Conway, a Republican lawyer who is married to Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s senior counsellor. “In my view he is a sociopath and a malignant narcissist. When a person suffering from these disorders feels the world closing in on them, their tendencies get worse. They lash out and fantasise and lose any ability to think rationally.” Conway is known for taunting Trump on Twitter (to great effect, it should be added: Trump often retaliates). Yet without exception, everyone I interviewed, including the most ardent Trump loyalists, made a similar point to Conway. Trump is deaf to advice, said one. He is his own worst enemy, said another. He only listens to family, said a third. He is mentally imbalanced, said a fourth. America, in other words, should brace itself for a turbulent six months ahead – with no assurance of a safe landing.


 


Its hardly a surprise


----------



## emanymton (May 15, 2020)

bimble said:


> The Uk has had a thousand times more deaths from Covid than Guatemala has, so far. I got this text from my friend there today who went on to ask how come things are getting looser over here . So very strange.
> This looks so complicated I don’t know how it can be thought reasonable to make things this hard for people. Full curfew means not even allowed to deliver food parcels to people let alone go bloody jogging.
> View attachment 212681


Restricting opening hours seems stupid.


----------



## cyril_smear (May 15, 2020)

two sheds said:


> too long; what's the gist of it?


are you copying me?


----------



## bimble (May 15, 2020)

emanymton said:


> Restricting opening hours seems stupid.


Yes. I sometimes wonder if some of the arbitrary seeming measures not just there, are more about an exercise of power than anything else.


----------



## Saul Goodman (May 15, 2020)

cyril_smear said:


> too long; what's the gist of it?


Trump trusts his slumlord son in law more than he trusts the WHO. He's still clinging on to that, despite knowing he's wrong. His world is closing in and he's probably about to implode.


----------



## two sheds (May 15, 2020)

cyril_smear said:


> are you copying me?



I was first


----------



## cyril_smear (May 15, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I was first


i was first


----------



## Supine (May 15, 2020)

cyril_smear said:


> i was first



I was 1st


----------



## two sheds (May 15, 2020)

cyril_smear said:


> i was first



I've told you once. 


etc. etc. etc.


----------



## cyril_smear (May 15, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I've told you once.
> 
> 
> etc. etc. etc.



you don't tell me, I tell you and if i've told you once I don't want to tell you agin.


----------



## weltweit (May 15, 2020)

Vaccine news 

from 15/05/2020 Animal trial offers hope for coronavirus vaccine


> A group of monkeys was exposed to the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The six animals that were vaccinated had less of the virus in their lungs and airways.
> 
> The trial took place in the US, involving researchers from the US government's National Institutes of Health (NIH) and from the University of Oxford.



from 15/05/2020 Trump unveils 'warp-speed' effort to create coronavirus vaccine by year's end


> Unveiling details of “Operation Warp Speed”, a name that references a concept popularised by Star Trek and other science fiction, Trump said: “That means big and it means fast. A massive scientific, industrial and logistical endeavour unlike anything our country has seen since the Manhattan Project.”
> ..
> And on Thursday Rick Bright, the ousted head of a government agency seeking a vaccine, told Congress: “Normally, it takes up to 10 years to make a vaccine. A lot of optimism is swirling around a 12-to-18-month time frame, if everything goes perfectly. We’ve never seen everything go perfectly.”


----------



## Signal 11 (May 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> More comment, from Forbes, on the possibility of a Wuhan Lab as the origin of the virus
> 
> from 01/05/2020 Wuhan Lab As Coronavirus Source Gains Traction



Not seeing any evidence in that one either.


> “I have no definitive way of proving this thesis,” he wrote on his blog, citing that access to the data and researchers in China has been denied so it was impossible for anyone to prove. “I also in no way seek to support or align myself with any activities that may be considered unfair, dishonest, nationalistic, racist, bigoted, or biased in any way.”


----------



## weltweit (May 15, 2020)

Signal 11 said:


> Not seeing any evidence in that one either.
> ..


I think it is more that this scenario that it may have escaped a particular lab is possible, given 1) that the Wuhan lab were apparently studying horseshoe bat coronaviruses and 2) that security at the lab had been criticised by a visiting US delegation. 

I don't know what evidence you might expect to see, it may never be resolved.


----------



## Supine (May 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I think it is more that this scenario that it may have escaped a particular lab is possible, given 1) that the Wuhan lab were apparently studying horseshoe bat coronaviruses and 2) that security at the lab had been criticised by a visiting US delegation.
> 
> I don't know what evidence you might expect to see, it may never be resolved.



Cities with populations of millions always have universities and research facilities.

Universities and research labs have virology departments.

Virology labs study Corona viruses.

It happens all over the world. Don't be a pawn in trump's game to start a fight with China ahead of his election campaign. 

Accept these things can and do happen naturally.


----------



## quimcunx (May 15, 2020)

Wuhan lab collaborates with other labs worldwide. Scientists from the US and probably UK too have visited there and worked there.  The security levels are the equal to anywhere else.  Obviously mistakes can happen anywhere but the insistence that they must have deliberately or accidentally released some evil chinese Frankenstein coronavirus has more to do with racism and conspiraloonery than genuine concern with science and security levels.

I heard its security being  praised by a US scientist who worked there.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (May 15, 2020)

HAL9000 said:


> Search for
> 
> "Inside Trump’s coronavirus meltdown"
> 
> in google, pick the first ft result.   That worked for me.   If it works for you, its an odd pay wall that can be by passed by a google search.


ta
apologies for being lazy


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (May 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I think it is more that this scenario that it may have escaped a particular lab is possible, given 1) that the Wuhan lab were apparently studying horseshoe bat coronaviruses and 2) that security at the lab had been criticised by a visiting US delegation.
> 
> I don't know what evidence you might expect to see, it may never be resolved.


it is possible...
also
it is possible that I might win the lottery
having got hold of all the evidence on the later it has so far been impossible to prove true
I have decades of research on that last one.


----------



## ice-is-forming (May 16, 2020)

From today in Qld



From June 14th



From July 10th


----------



## ice-is-forming (May 16, 2020)

You know what, I didn't know that the UK was still allowing people to arrive from overseas! I had assumed until yesterday that you'd closed the borders. Can't believe you didn't, or have I got that wrong?


----------



## weltweit (May 16, 2020)

Supine said:


> Cities with populations of millions always have universities and research facilities.
> 
> Universities and research labs have virology departments.
> 
> ...


Are you saying there is no possibility it escaped from the lab?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 16, 2020)

Supine said:


> Cities with populations of millions always have universities and research facilities.
> 
> Universities and research labs have virology departments.
> 
> ...


This distraction is worse than that, cos it detracts from the real issue here - that this does happen naturally, and that it is happening naturally all too often nowadays via our agricultural systems. That's something not only China needs to face up to and deal with. It can happen anywhere. We shouldn't forget our own little agriculture-related disease fuck-ups of the recent past. This needs a truly global response. No chance of that with wankers like Trump throwing baseless accusations around.


----------



## Epona (May 16, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Are you saying there is no possibility it escaped from the lab?



I don't think anyone can say for certain that there is no possibility, just that it isn't a normal method of a new virus entering the human population (usually to do with livestock farming or meat hygiene - so it is logically the least likely of those options).


----------



## littlebabyjesus (May 16, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Are you saying there is no possibility it escaped from the lab?


There is no evidence that it escaped from the lab. None. There is strong evidence, judged by those who know about these things and have examined the pattern of mutation, that it isn't a human-engineered virus, so if it did escape from a lab, it escaped as a naturally occurring virus. But it's a new virus, meaning it's mutated somewhere, somehow to get from a bat into another animal and from there into humans. 'escaped from a lab' isn't the obvious route for this to happen. Via livestock is sadly a tried and tested route in that it's happened many times before. Viruses jump species. They can jump more than once onto us. That's the thing we need to be worrying about here.

This lab nonsense is, among many other things, actually an excuse not to look at current farming practices. It's a dangerous response in that sense. Next pandemic could just as easily come from the US. Given its highly questionable agricultural practices, it wouldn't be a surprise for this to happen in the US. Blaming it on the dastardly Chinese leaking from a lab and lying about it is an excuse not to face up to that.


ETA: You do realise that you're only asking this cos Trump keeps bringing it up. Trump the man who advised people to inject bleach. You might as well start listening to David Icke.


----------



## Epona (May 16, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> There is no evidence that it escaped from the lab. None. There is strong evidence, judged by those who know about these things and have examined the pattern of mutation, that it isn't a human-engineered virus, so if it did escape from a lab, it escaped as a naturally occurring virus. But it's a new virus, meaning it's mutated somewhere, somehow to get from a bat into another animal and from there into humans. 'escaped from a lab' isn't the obvious route for this to happen. Via livestock is sadly a tried and tested route in that it's happened many times before. Viruses jump species. They can jump more than once onto us. That's the thing we need to be worrying about here.
> 
> This lab nonsense is, among many other things, actually an excuse not to look at current farming practices. It's a dangerous response in that sense. Next pandemic could just as easily come from the US. Given its highly questionable agricultural practices, it wouldn't be a surprise for this to happen in the US. Blaming it on the dastardly Chinese leaking from a lab and lying about it is an excuse not to face up to that.



Indeed.  And although not a virus, can I just say BSE?  Meat hygiene and livestock practices here were terrible until that hit and were tightened up in the aftermath.


----------



## weltweit (May 16, 2020)

littlebabyjesus no one, especially not me, has suggested it is in any way human engineered, indeed I posted some time back that studies into the genetic makeup of this virus strongly indicated it was wholly natural. Back when I posted that item to suggest the virus occurred and was transmitted naturally (I mean't not from a lab) an immediate response was to say that this didn't preclude that it could have escaped from a lab.


----------



## Epona (May 16, 2020)

The factor that I think you may be missing is that in order for a virus to cross the species barrier, there often has to be repeated contact, and there are often other factors involved.  You cannot take say a pig virus that has only hitherto existed in the pig population and store it in a lab and have it get out and cause a global pandemic amongst humans.

Usually what happens is someone interacting frequently with lets say pigs that have a pig virus spreading amongst them due to poor animal husbandry will be exposed daily to the pig virus and if they are at a low ebb themselves may end up with it invading their own cells and it may find that it can replicate there and cause symptoms that will enable it to be passed to other people.

Stuff (viruses at least) just doesn't generally get passed on or become transmissable to or by a different species by someone leaving the lid off a beaker in a lab or somesuch.


----------



## elbows (May 16, 2020)

Thats one way that viruses can cross the species barrier. There are others. And it all gets so very complicated, and even for experts in the field it is the usual story of various theories, some of which are well accepted, but there is not always agreement between experts as to which one(s) applied in a particular instance.

Some examples that I am aware of from looking at influenza in the past are reassortment, antigenic shift, antigenic drift.









						Reassortment - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






> Reassortment is responsible for some of the major genetic shifts in the history of the influenza virus. The 1957 and 1968 pandemic flu strains were caused by reassortment between an avian virus and a human virus, whereas the H1N1 virus responsible for the 2009 swine flu pandemic has an unusual mix of swine, avian and human influenza genetic sequences.











						Antigenic shift - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






> When two different strains of influenza infect the same cell simultaneously, their protein capsids and lipid envelopes are removed, exposing their RNA, which is then transcribed to mRNA. The host cell then forms new viruses that combine their antigens; for example, H3N2 and H5N1 can form H5N2 this way. Because the human immune system has difficulty recognizing the new influenza strain, it may be highly dangerous, and result in a new pandemic.







__





						Antigenic drift - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






> *Antigenic drift* is a kind of genetic variation in viruses, arising by the accumulation of mutations in the virus genes that code for virus-surface proteins that host antibodies recognize. This results in a new strain of virus particles that is not effectively inhibited by the antibodies that prevented infection by previous strains. This makes it easier for the changed virus to spread throughout a partially immune population. Antigenic drift occurs in both influenza A and influenza B viruses.



Anyway although much of the detail there is influenza-specific, some of the concepts apply more broadly. I'm not that up to speed with all of this as it applies to coronaviruses but thats partly because human studies into these matters have been somewhat limited and are often speculative. And I get the distinct impression that even the 'closely related to this pandemic virus SARS-CoV-2' viruses that have been found in bats and pangolins are not that closely related really, in the sense that even if they are 90 something percent the same, their common ancestor may still have been a hundred years ago. So, lots of gaps!

Here is an article form 2015 about a different human coronavirus (OC43) and an attempt to study its evolution.









						Genetic drift of human coronavirus OC43 spike gene during adaptive evolution - Scientific Reports
					

Coronaviruses (CoVs) continuously threaten human health. However, to date, the evolutionary mechanisms that govern CoV strain persistence in human populations have not been fully understood. In this study, we characterized the evolution of the major antigen-spike (S) gene in the most prevalent...




					www.nature.com
				




I mention it right now because one of the things it says is:



> During evolution, high frequencies of homologous RNA recombination and gene mutations are considered the main forces that push CoVs to adapt to specific hosts. Such events can lead to emergence of new strains or genotypes within a certain species and even to new species, causing epidemic or zoonotic outbreaks that continuously threaten human health2,3. This phenomenon is exemplified by the recent emergence of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV6,7. However, the detailed evolutionary mechanism of interspecies transmission and the persistence of CoVs in specific hosts have yet to be fully elucidated.



I'd love to say more but I'm not knowledgable enough. I will say that as far as I know it would be perfectly possible for a coronavirus that happened to be well suited to human infection and spread to exist in an animal host for a long time without any notable effects on humans, if the animal in question (or an intermediate species of animal) does not have many opportunities to infect a human. And if that opportunity does arise at some point, the human in question doesnt really need to be run down or otherwise suffering from immune system problems in order to get infected by it and start spreading it. If the virus has certain properties that already allow it to thrive in humans, which could have been acquired in a number of different ways, then little more than chance is required to get things started in humans.

Most of this stuff really doesnt help rule the lab accident theory in or out. Because many aspects and details strike me as compatible with both scenarios. If one of the samples they took from a bat was highly transmissible in humans and a small error happened with infection prevention in the lab, its really not much different than the very same virus reaching humans via an animal, its only the final step that is different.

So all of this detail is mostly only useful in this lab discussion if dealing with people who have trouble getting their heads round how viruses evolve, how this stuff can happen naturally/via the way humans farm and otherwise interact with animals. Its useful if dealing with someone who thinks the lab is the only explanation. It doesnt rule out the lab. I remain mostly without evidence for or against the lab, and I do not know if that will ever change.

I do know that I will continue to disagree with those who want to characterise the Wuhan lab as being just like labs in cities everywhere. For one reason, that lab is the base of the most famous SARS-like coronaviruses in bats researcher, whose own initial thoughs upon hearing of the new virus in humans included:



> “I had never expected this kind of thing to happen in Wuhan, in central China.” Her studies had shown that the southern, subtropical provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan have the greatest risk of coronaviruses jumping to humans from animals—particularly bats, a known reservoir. If coronaviruses were the culprit, she remembers thinking, “Could they have come from our lab?”



Fear not, the rest of the article is all about the other side of things, the continual risk that various forms of human activity involving animals and animal habitats creates. Of which there are plenty. But I am inclined to keep lab accidents on the list of things that humans do which pose theoretical risk in regards novel virus outbreaks, pandemics etc too.









						How China’s ‘Bat Woman’ Hunted Down Viruses from SARS to the New Coronavirus
					

Wuhan-based virologist Shi Zhengli has identified dozens of deadly SARS-like viruses in bat caves, and she warns there are more out there




					www.scientificamerican.com


----------



## Epona (May 16, 2020)

The least likely scenario is still "escaped from a lab" though.  Humans have been getting viruses from animals since domestication due to close ongoing contact and before laboratories existed, that is a very long period of time.  Any lab with a halfway decent protocol is a less likely vector than ongoing contact with livestock or wildlife.


----------



## elbows (May 16, 2020)

I have nothing I can really use to fairly judge that option as the least likely. So far everything is in pretty much equal place on my list of the plausible possibilities. Others will of course make their own determinations about this, but nobody here has said anything which moves my dial on this issue at all.

I'd much rather know, or be able to put one option in the clear lead in my mind. But I cannot, and there are now multiple consequences of all the politics swirling around the narrative about a lab accident that make it less likely I will ever find out. There is much research that countries other than China can do into this virus, but the origins of it, the likely animal host(s), are things that may only be discovered via China, and the work of people like Shi Zhengli. And now access to such stuff is reduced and the entire subject becomes hypersensitive in so many ways, some of which would likely still be sensitive now even without the political use of the lab accident theory.

Anyway I hate the fact that I feel compelled to go into various detail whenever the lab theory comes up, it makes it sound like I am more interested in these angles than I am. I mean certainly I get pissed off when I think about how the return of H1N1 flu in 1977 was considered to have been the result of a lab accident, and how these sorts of things are not secret, but just dont seem to feature in peoples conversations or views of the world. In a pandemic where infection control in hospitals is quite the issue, and there are numerous other failings on display, this just isnt a time when I can push human error in any context too far down the list of things sorted by likeliness. Especially not when the only outbreaks of the original SARS that were noticed after the initial outbreak had been successfully dealt with in 2003, were from a small bunch of different lab accidents.

It just feels wrong to me for the subject to come up without these things getting at least a mention. But I am now really quite tempted to refuse to repeat myself on this subject again in future, and to only ever post about it again if some interesting new piece of the puzzle emerges.


----------



## Epona (May 16, 2020)

I think there are far more important questions elbows - it matters less now how it happened than what we are doing about it now it has.

Actually you know what - better agricultural practice and livestock management, better market and abattoir hygiene and regulations, and ensuring that labs have good biohazard procedures are not ridiculous demands and aren't mutually exclusive.  Let's just try to tighten up all these things if we are looking at how to prevent similar stuff happening again.


----------



## Yossarian (May 16, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> ETA: You do realise that you're only asking this cos Trump keeps bringing it up. Trump the man who advised people to inject bleach. You might as well start listening to David Icke.



Trump's hardly the only person who's talked about the possibility of the virus escaping from the Wuhan lab, though of course the discussion has been tainted by his involvement in it. This story from Mother Jones seems a lot more level-headed - it looks at genuine concerns that the virus could have escaped from a Wuhan lab, and notes that the earliest cases can be traced to before the outbreak at the wet market.



> "The market was just an amplifier, Mardi Gras in miniature ... Which left no firm explanation for how a virus that had originated in bats in remote caves in southern China had suddenly appeared in downtown Wuhan. Even the most common theories—that it had jumped from the bat to a person or another animal that served as an intermediate host as it traveled to Wuhan—would require a remarkable confluence of events. No wonder then that to some it was like a black hole suddenly opening in the Swiss countryside outside the CERN particle-collider.
> 
> It was all perfect fodder for conspiracy-minded bigots like Rush Limbaugh, who didn’t understand the science and immediately spun dark bioweapon fictions about the “ChiCom” government, which were rightly condemned by experts in the field (and which he’s since retracted)....
> 
> But questions remained about whether a bat-cave researcher might have unwittingly carried the natural virus back to Wuhan, or become infected in the lab. Unfortunately, such territory had already been made toxic by the Limbaughs of the world.



It also looks at the history of virus escapes from labs, some of which surprised - even the earlier SARS virus has escaped from labs at least three times since the 2003 epidemic.









						The non-paranoid person's guide to viruses escaping from labs
					

Trump’s China-blaming and conspiracy theories have undermined the real debate about the facilities that handle the world’s deadliest pathogens.




					www.motherjones.com
				




And of course, this is China, where the regime's behaviour invites this kind of speculation - if there was some kind of lab incident behind this, anybody who could shed more light on the subject would be well aware that doing so would mean that they would disappear and never be heard from again.


----------



## ice-is-forming (May 16, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> You know what, I didn't know that the UK was still allowing people to arrive from overseas! I had assumed until yesterday that you'd closed the borders. Can't believe you didn't, or have I got that wrong?



So what's the go with this? Did the uk not stop arrivals! If so wtaf!


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (May 16, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> So what's the go with this? Did the uk not stop arrivals! If so wtaf!
> 
> View attachment 212812



No, they didn't stop arrivals. But really, it's not necessarily that you need to close the border as such, but you do need to have a quarantine at the border, which they also do not have. 

Congratulations on Queensland's figures. The response of other nations to this crisis is what makes the UK response so painful.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 16, 2020)

Things are getting grim in Brazil, the two highest daily reported deaths & new cases occurred on 14th & 15th May, whilst the president remains in denial, and loses his second health minster in under a month.   

Deaths - 835 & 824 / New cases - 13,761 & 15,305. 



> Brazil's health minister has resigned after less than a month in the job following disagreements over the government's handling of the country's escalating coronavirus crisis.
> 
> Nelson Teich had criticised a decree issued by President Jair Bolsonaro allowing gyms and beauty parlours to reopen.
> 
> He has downplayed the virus as "a little flu" and has said the spread of Covid-19 is inevitable, attracting global criticism.











						Coronavirus: Brazil's Bolsonaro sees second health minister quit
					

Nelson Teich resigned after disagreements with President Jair Bolsonaro, who opposes lockdown measures.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Numbers (May 16, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> So what's the go with this? Did the uk not stop arrivals! If so wtaf!
> 
> View attachment 212812


Something just shy of 100k people ice, with zero quarantine.


----------



## ice-is-forming (May 16, 2020)

Numbers said:


> Something just shy of 100k people ice, with zero quarantine.




Fucking hell Tone! That's insane! Jeez! Why didn't they lock down the boarders?? Aus boarders both external & internal have been locked down for about six weeks.  If you're an Aus citizen returning you can get in but it's 14 days quarantine in a very strict way. They've been using the 'ilegal' migrant villages in the middle of no where. 

What was the reasoning behind that? 

I hope you and yours are okay. Like the beard btw, very different to your usual look. X


----------



## Red Cat (May 16, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> You know what, I didn't know that the UK was still allowing people to arrive from overseas! I had assumed until yesterday that you'd closed the borders. Can't believe you didn't, or have I got that wrong?



That is bonkers isn't it? I'd assumed the same until a couple of weeks ago.


----------



## ice-is-forming (May 16, 2020)

Red Cat said:


> That is bonkers isn't it? I'd assumed the same until a couple of weeks ago.



Fucking mental tbh! What's the justification behind it?


----------



## kabbes (May 16, 2020)

Probably that on average new arrivals slightly _decrease_ the level of the virus in the country.


----------



## maomao (May 16, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Fucking mental tbh! What's the justification behind it?


Rich people insisting on travelling.


----------



## AnnaKarpik (May 16, 2020)

eta; just repeating what's already been said


----------



## quimcunx (May 16, 2020)

My understanding is  the scientific consensus is we dont know for sure. We're working on it.


----------



## Sue (May 16, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Fucking mental tbh! What's the justification behind it?


Well they announced last Sunday that they might change this at the end of the month. No rush and all, not like there"s a pandemic or whatever happening.


----------



## HAL9000 (May 16, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Are you saying there is no possibility it escaped from the lab?



If you're saying its been genetically engineered in a lab, that's rubbish....

Peter Daszak, a scientist who's worked with Wuhan scientists for 15 years to try and prevent the next pandemic...









						‘No-one is engineering viruses to release to wipe out the global population’ – diseases expert Peter Daszak
					

I'm joined by Peter Daszak - a scientist working in the US to help find a cure for Covid-19.




					www.channel4.com
				




Long audio interview with a couple of different scientists, summary of the interviews, this virus has not been genetically engineered.    Longer interview with Peter Dazak, at 29 minutes 44 seconds.









						Science in Action - Presidents and pandemics - BBC Sounds
					

Why they don’t mix




					www.bbc.co.uk
				




I would just like to highlight a final quote from Peter Daszak..



> Thanks to the conspiracy theory.
> Thanks to the politicisation of pandemic preventation.
> We're not right now communicating very well with our Chinese partners.
> Its holding up work that will save lives.
> ...


----------



## LDC (May 16, 2020)

Just heard from a friend who has flown from NSW back to Tasmania where they live. Was met at the airport and taken to a hotel and has been put there for 14 days quarantine. It's all paid for, and gets room service with a nice looking menu, and an expenses account to spend on food and drink.


----------



## Yossarian (May 16, 2020)

HAL9000 said:


> If you're saying its been genetically engineered in a lab that's rubbish....



Very big difference between "escaped from a lab" and "created in a lab."


----------



## two sheds (May 16, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Very big difference between "escaped from a lab" and "created in a lab."



If it wasn't created in a lab though they'd have had to take it into the lab first, in which case it could have escaped from wherever they got it from before taking it into the lab. 

I think.


----------



## weltweit (May 16, 2020)

HAL9000 said:


> If you're saying its been genetically engineered in a lab, that's rubbish....
> ..


See my post Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more


----------



## editor (May 16, 2020)

A skeptic gets a hefty bite of reality Former Coronavirus Skeptic Warns Others To Take Pandemic Seriously After Infection


----------



## weltweit (May 16, 2020)

editor said:


> A skeptic gets a hefty bite of reality Former Coronavirus Skeptic Warns Others To Take Pandemic Seriously After Infection


A sceptic and a god botherer, not a good mix.


----------



## Supine (May 16, 2020)

weltweit said:


> See my post Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more



Is it more likely that a naturally occurring virus moves from animal to human or that it moves from animal to highly secure laboratories then breaks out and escapes to a wet market where it infects humans. I'd say the first is far more likely but I guess we'll never know.


----------



## frogwoman (May 16, 2020)

I heard that when bats or other animals like pigs are stressed (as they would be in the markets or conditions like slaughterhouses) they tend to shed more viruses and that could have been what happened here even though covid might have been living in bats for years without a problem.


----------



## kabbes (May 16, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I heard that when bats or other animals like pigs are stressed (as they would be in the markets or conditions like slaughterhouses) they tend to shed more viruses and that could have been what happened here even though covid might have been living in bats for years without a problem.


You may or may not care depending on your predilection for pedantry but I like to know these things.  If you don’t care, just ignore me:

COVID stands for COronaVIrus Disease and specifically refers to the illness people develop as a result of catching this coronavirus. (And it’s COVID-19 because the disease was discovered in 2019). The virus itself is SARS-COV-2, standing for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome COronaVirus 2.
So the bats would have been living with SARS-COV-2 rather than with covid.


----------



## 2hats (May 16, 2020)

kabbes said:


> The virus itself is SARS-COV-2


A pedant writes: SARS-CoV-2.


----------



## kabbes (May 16, 2020)

Yes, fair point


----------



## teuchter (May 16, 2020)

kabbes said:


> You may or may not care depending on your predilection for pedantry but I like to know these things.  If you don’t care, just ignore me:
> 
> COVID stands for COronaVIrus Disease and specifically refers to the illness people develop as a result of catching this coronavirus. (And it’s COVID-19 because the disease was discovered in 2019). The virus itself is SARS-COV-2, standing for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome COronaVirus 2.
> So the bats would have been living with SARS-COV-2 rather than with covid.


I'm not really all that happy about various inconsistencies in their naming conventions tbh.


----------



## platinumsage (May 16, 2020)

kabbes said:


> You may or may not care depending on your predilection for pedantry but I like to know these things.  If you don’t care, just ignore me:
> 
> COVID stands for COronaVIrus Disease and specifically refers to the illness people develop as a result of catching this coronavirus. (And it’s COVID-19 because the disease was discovered in 2019). The virus itself is SARS-COV-2, standing for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome COronaVirus 2.
> So the bats would have been living with SARS-COV-2 rather than with covid.



What's particularly annoying for a pedant is that COVID-19 is not an acronym for the disease name "Coronavirus Disease 2019", it's the actual name of the disease. It was derived from that phrase, but people shouldn't treat it as an acronym that can sometimes be written out in full.


----------



## frogwoman (May 16, 2020)

Yes I know the virus is sars cov 2, i think everyone knew what i meant tho?


----------



## weltweit (May 16, 2020)

Supine said:


> Is it more likely that a naturally occurring virus moves from animal to human or that it moves from animal to highly secure laboratories then breaks out and escapes to a wet market where it infects humans. I'd say the first is far more likely but I guess we'll never know.


I don't want to labour the lab issue, but I think you complicate the possibility perhaps to make it seem less likely I don't know? If the particular virus was being studied in the lab it didn't need to do anything so complex as to escape to a wet market to infect humans. It only needed to infect one person in the lab and be carried out of there in that person.


----------



## weltweit (May 16, 2020)

Summary figures from WHO 

from 15/05/2020 https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...515-covid-19-sitrep-116.pdf?sfvrsn=8dd60956_2


This page lists stats for every country.


----------



## weltweit (May 16, 2020)

Italy 

from 16/05/2020 Italy to lift coronavirus travel restrictions


> Italy's government has signed a decree that will allow travel to and from the country from 3 June, as it moves to ease its coronavirus lockdown measures.
> 
> It will also allow travel between the regions - which has so far been tightly restricted - from the same day.





> The move marks a major step in the country's efforts to reopen its economy after more than two months of lockdown.
> ..
> Countries across Europe have continued to report decreasing daily death tolls, as lockdowns begin to ease. Portugal, Spain and Greece are among the countries to have relaxed their measures


----------



## SheilaNaGig (May 16, 2020)

extra dry said:


> don't veiw if you are effected by the sight of blood. Looking at 12 cases of people who died with the virus. Pictures of lungs and blood clots.






Thanks for posting this extra dry .

One of the stand out points made made in video is that of the 12 autopsies, all of them died of pulmonary complications, all of them had C-19 viral RNA found in their lungs, but only nine had it in their throat, which is significant for testing. Watch from 3’20” - 4”45” for this information.


----------



## weltweit (May 16, 2020)

Brazil loses their second health minister, as disagreements with Bolsonaro become too great. 

from 15/05/2020 Second Brazil health minister quits in a month


> Brazil's health minister has resigned after less than a month in the job following disagreements over the government's handling of the country's escalating coronavirus crisis.
> 
> Nelson Teich had criticised a decree issued by President Jair Bolsonaro allowing gyms and beauty parlours to reopen.





> However, he gave no reason for his resignation at a press conference.
> 
> His predecessor was sacked after disagreeing with Mr Bolsonaro.


----------



## The39thStep (May 16, 2020)

Might not agree with his politics but at least I can understand this PMs message "With the same conviction with which I asked them to stay at home, the appeal that I now make is that, safely, with caution, they resume the process of occupying the street, returning to the street, returning to the stores, returning to the restoration , back to cafes, because that is how, collectively, we will be able to relaunch our life in the country again ", António Costa  Portuguese PM


----------



## weltweit (May 16, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> Might not agree with his politics but at least I can understand this PMs message "With the same conviction with which I asked them to stay at home, the appeal that I now make is that, safely, with caution, they resume the process of occupying the street, returning to the street, returning to the stores, returning to the restoration , back to cafes, because that is how, collectively, we will be able to relaunch our life in the country again ", António Costa  Portuguese PM


hmm, I am wondering which country will be the first to re-establish lockdowns, most of the countries opening up still have quite high numbers of cases which could grow.


----------



## extra dry (May 17, 2020)

An update for May 13-15th from Dr. Campbell.

Talks about the infection rates, the R number and other stats. in  london, new york and a few other countries.
  Fact based no BS.


----------



## The39thStep (May 17, 2020)

weltweit said:


> hmm, I am wondering which country will be the first to re-establish lockdowns, most of the countries opening up still have quite high numbers of cases which could grow.


Yes its a risk and I'm sure progress wont be even. They've not ruled out regional responses here if it is required.


----------



## frogwoman (May 17, 2020)

'Hubs of infection': how Covid-19 spread through Latin America's markets
					

Authorities have struggled to enforce social distancing at the trading centres. At one Lima market, 79% of vendors had coronavirus




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Supine (May 17, 2020)

The future of covid dining Amsterdam style


----------



## editor (May 17, 2020)

Interesting stuff

Nearly 150,000 people die per day worldwide, based on the latest comprehensive research published in 2017. Which diseases are the most deadly, and how many lives do they take per day?

Here’s how many people die each day on average, sorted by cause:






























						Global deaths: This is how COVID-19 compares to other diseases
					

Cardiovascular diseases, or diseases of the heart and blood vessels, are the leading cause of death.




					www.weforum.org


----------



## platinumsage (May 17, 2020)

Belgian PM not very popular:


----------



## frogwoman (May 17, 2020)

editor said:


> Interesting stuff
> 
> Nearly 150,000 people die per day worldwide, based on the latest comprehensive research published in 2017. Which diseases are the most deadly, and how many lives do they take per day?
> 
> ...



Exactly, its not covid 19 vs other deaths, its other deaths AND covid 19.


----------



## Mation (May 17, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> Belgian PM not very popular:



Ha! That's what I wanted people to do when Trump visited the UK. Imagine how badly he'd lose his shit!


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 17, 2020)

As if the Yemen didn't have enough shit going on, C-19 has arrived big style.  









						Coronavirus will 'delete Yemen from maps all over the world'
					

Sky News footage reveals the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in a country that has been wracked by civil war for almost six years.




					news.sky.com


----------



## weltweit (May 17, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> As if the Yemen didn't have enough shit going on, C-19 has arrived big style.
> ..


Grim article ..


----------



## Clair De Lune (May 17, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> As if the Yemen didn't have enough shit going on, C-19 has arrived big style.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Jesus...and we're moaning about not being able to visit a mate. Fuck.


----------



## Humberto (May 17, 2020)

The lines between arms manufacturers and government are looking blurred.


----------



## Saul Goodman (May 17, 2020)

Humberto said:


> The lines between arms manufacturers and government are looking blurred.


What lines?


----------



## Humberto (May 17, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> What lines?



True. Anyway, I'll leave this here:











						Why Bombs Made in America Have Been Killing Civilians in Yemen (Published 2020)
					

President Trump sees arms deals as jobs generators for firms like Raytheon, which has made billions in sales to the Saudi coalition. The Obama administration initially backed the Saudis too, but later regretted it as thousands died.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## zahir (May 17, 2020)

> Coronavirus infections in Iran are increasing again and the country’s epidemic looks to be heading for a second wave.
> 
> The first wave peaked at the end of March when the daily count of new cases briefly rose above 3,000. Throughout the following month new cases dropped steadily, reaching a low point on May 2 when only 802 were reported. Since then, though, they have been rising again.
> 
> ...


----------



## frogwoman (May 17, 2020)

Terrible news. They have suffered enough. This virus is a bunch of shit.


----------



## Marty1 (May 17, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Fucking mental tbh! What's the justification behind it?



Maybe political?


----------



## ice-is-forming (May 17, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Maybe political?



Can you expand on that? Killing a whole load more of your citizens doesn't seem like the cleverest political move .. unless austerity wasn't doing it fast enough for you


----------



## spring-peeper (May 17, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Just heard from a friend who has flown from NSW back to Tasmania where they live. Was met at the airport and taken to a hotel and has been put there for 14 days quarantine. It's all paid for, and gets room service with a nice looking menu, and an expenses account to spend on food and drink.




In Canada, you have to show the border officiers your two week quarantine plan.
If it is not good enough (or no plan), you are put into quarantine at a local hotel.
Once your plan is ok, you may leave and go to another place for the balance of your 14 day quarantine.

I do wonder how much the Americans coming across the border will complain about this loss of freedom.
We will find out once the border between the two countries is opened for non-essential travel.


----------



## spring-peeper (May 18, 2020)

The Canadian version of the vaccine starts clinical trials.









						How the first Canadian COVID-19 vaccine trial will work
					

The first Canadian clinical trial of a potential COVID-19 vaccine will be fast-tracked, allowing it to potentially be completed in a much shorter time frame than the usual five to seven years.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Yossarian (May 18, 2020)

They can quarantine new arrivals, but stupidity knows no borders.


----------



## frogwoman (May 18, 2020)

Coronavirus spreads in Yemen with health system in shambles
					

CAIRO (AP) — Hundreds of people in Aden, southern Yemen’s main city, have died in the past week with symptoms of what appears to be the coronavirus, local health officials said in interviews with The Associated Press...




					apnews.com


----------



## Monkeygrinder's Organ (May 18, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> They can quarantine new arrivals, but stupidity knows no borders.
> 
> View attachment 213200



I quite like that even idiot hippies in Canada stick the Maple Leaf on things, just so you know they're not American idiot hippies.


----------



## 2hats (May 18, 2020)

Some doubts about the effectiveness of the ChAdOx1 vaccine candidate (the Oxford vaccine) arising from response in animal models (all subjects shed viral RNA after SARS-CoV-2 exposure and produced a low titre of neutralising antibody).








						Did The Oxford Covid Vaccine Work In Monkeys? Not Really
					

The latest data on the vaccine being developed out of Oxford shows limited success.




					www.forbes.com
				



Paper DOI: 10.1101/2020.05.13.093195

Meanwhile in China, another vaccine candidate, PiCoVacc (a _traditional_ form using inactivated virus), appears to be fairly effective in animal models.





						AAAS
					






					sciencemag.org
				



Paper DOI: 10.1126/science.abc1932


----------



## Combustible (May 18, 2020)

2hats said:


> Some doubts about the effectiveness of the ChAdOx1 vaccine candidate (the Oxford vaccine) arising from response in animal models (all subjects shed viral RNA after SARS-CoV-2 exposure and produced a low titre of neutralising antibody).
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The Forbes article seems to be being heavily criticized by virologists, in particular because of the very high viral load given in the Oxford study.


----------



## 2hats (May 18, 2020)

Combustible said:


> The Forbes article seems to be being heavily criticized by virologists, in particular because of the very high viral load given in the Oxford study.


Yet still low titres of NAb. Only time will tell.


----------



## CNT36 (May 18, 2020)

teuchter said:


> I'm not really all that happy about various inconsistencies in their naming conventions tbh.


There are very few with viruses.


----------



## CNT36 (May 18, 2020)

Combustible said:


> The Forbes article seems to be being heavily criticized by virologists, in particular because of the very high viral load given in the Oxford study.


It is far from all doom and gloom though despite them still being infectious. The Oxford virus does seem to reduce the viral load and prevent pneumonia.





> Here, we showed that a single vaccination with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is effective in preventing damage to the lungs upon high dose challenge with SARS-CoV-2. Similarly a recent study showed that a triple vaccination regime of a high dose of whole inactivated SARS-CoV-2 protected rhesus macaques from SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia7.
> 
> Viral loads in BAL fluid and lung tissue of vaccinated animals were significantly reduced, suggesting that vaccination prevents virus replication in the lower respiratory tract. Despite this marked difference in virus replication in the lungs, reduction in viral shedding from the nose was not observed. However, animals were challenged with a high dose of virus via multiple routes, which likely does not reflect a realistic human exposure. Whether a lower challenge dose would result in more efficient protection of the upper respiratory tract remains to be determined.
> 
> Several preclinical studies of vaccines against SARS-CoV-1 resulted in immunopathology after vaccination and challenge, with more severe disease in vaccinated animals than in controls8–10. Importantly, we did not see any evidence of immune-enhanced disease in vaccinated animals. The immune response was not skewed towards a Th2 response in mice nor in NHPs, there was no increase in clinical signs or virus replication throughout the study in vaccinated NHPs compared to controls and no markers of disease enhancement in lung tissue of NHPs, such as an influx of neutrophils were observed. These data informed the start of the phase I clinical trial with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 on April 23, 2020. As of May 13, 2020, more than 1000 volunteers have participated in the clinical trials. This study is thus an important step towards the development of a safe and efficacious SARS-CoV-2 vaccine.


----------



## CNT36 (May 18, 2020)

Saul Goodman said:


> What lines?


White ones.


----------



## two sheds (May 18, 2020)

Not to be sniffed at.


----------



## The39thStep (May 18, 2020)

Cafes and bars open in Portugal this morning








						Pastelaria no Restelo adaptou-se para voltar a receber clientes
					

A reportagem da RTP ouviu clientes satisfeitos e com saudades de palmiers e torradas numa pastelaria do Restelo, em Lisboa. Naquele espaço foram criadas condições de distanciamento e adotadas medidas acrescidas de higienização.




					www.rtp.pt
				




11th and 12th year pupils go back to school








						Covid-19. A situação ao minuto do novo coronavírus no país e no mundo
					

Acompanhamos aqui todos os desenvolvimentos sobre a propagação do novo coronavírus à escala internacional.




					www.rtp.pt


----------



## brogdale (May 18, 2020)

Seeing reports of French researchers suggesting that they've found evidence of Covid infection as early as mid November 2019 reminds me that, back in September a family friend (NHS A&E doctor) strongly advised us all to take up offers of flu jabs (which we did) as he had heard of reports of very virulent 'flus' being associated with the Southern Hemisphere winter 'flu season.

Almost certainly coincidental & all that, but I when I recalled this advice I thought that it would be unsurprising if researchers eventually push back Covid origins even further.


----------



## phillm (May 18, 2020)

Good to see Belgian HCPs giving their equivalent of a 'clap' to their PM....


----------



## weltweit (May 18, 2020)

2hats said:


> Some doubts about the effectiveness of the ChAdOx1 vaccine candidate (the Oxford vaccine) arising from response in animal models (all subjects shed viral RNA after SARS-CoV-2 exposure and produced a low titre of neutralising antibody).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yes I read that, disappointing.  



2hats said:


> Meanwhile in China, another vaccine candidate, PiCoVacc (a _traditional_ form using inactivated virus), appears to be fairly effective in animal models.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Whereas this seems much more positive.


----------



## elbows (May 18, 2020)

brogdale said:


> Seeing reports of French researchers suggesting that they've found evidence of Covid infection as early as mid November 2019 reminds me that, back in September a family friend (NHS A&E doctor) strongly advised us all to take up offers of flu jabs (which we did) as he had heard of reports of very virulent 'flus' being associated with the Southern Hemisphere winter 'flu season.
> 
> Almost certainly coincidental & all that, but I when I recalled this advice I thought that it would be unsurprising if researchers eventually push back Covid origins even further.



I'm always ready for the historical timetable of a novel virus to be revised, and just the other day I commented on this and linked to some BBC story about a choir in the UK who got sick in January after a contact came back from Wuhan in December.

In theory there are limits as to how far the timing can be pushed back though. Because we have seen how transmissible this virus is, how quickly it spreads in countries and between countries, and how much hospitalisation and death results. So if you push the timing back too far then you have to be able to explain why the disease did not explode around the world at that time, why it didnt cause levels of casualties that would be noticed, why it took so long for large and notable outbreaks to arrive elsewhere.

I am not complacent that the currently understood timeline of events is accurate, but if I want to think along the lines of the virus having been out there earlier than first thought, I suppose I'd have to assume that the number involved were relatively low, otherwise we would have seen healthcare swamped and certain quirks of symptoms sooner. And then it would be easy to speculate that maybe the virus changed at some point to be much more transmissible more quickly, and thats the stae where it would then start to get noticed by humanity.

Countries like Australia have often been in the news, very much including UK news, in recent years for having bad flu seasons, so there has been quite a lot of attention in that direction in recent times. These bad flu seasons were in part breaking records there because they had started to do a lot more testing, which also means we know a lot of their cases were influenza, and which type of influenza. I havent studied their last flu season recently but I think it started early and went on a long time, with more than one strain of influenza involved, and a very large number of positive influenza tests.

Anyway it is fair to say there are holes and assumptions in the global respiratory disease surveillance systems so I like to maintain some wiggle room on these topics, I try to keep my assumptions tentative and ready to change. It is completely expected that some early Covid-19 cases will have been missed and put down to being something else like influenza or some other cause of pneumonia. It would take sufficient numbers of them to raise any alarms at the time, so sporadic incidents of severe disease would have been easily overlooked.


----------



## The39thStep (May 18, 2020)

Small bar just down the road to me re-opened


----------



## elbows (May 18, 2020)

Another implication of what I just said is that for coronaviruses that only rarely cause severe disease in humans (ie dont cause notable levels of severe illness at a particular time & place), its quite easy for us never to even notice they exist at all. Although several of the human coronaviruses that cause seasonal colds etc were discovered in the 1960's, I believe several others were only discovered this century, despite likely having been present in human populations for a long time before that. There could be others for all I know. A fair chunk of this modern coronavirus knowledge came from research that was motivated by the SARS outbreak, motivation that somewhat faded as the years went by. Obviously to say there is fresh incentive to study coronaviruses more closely now would be a rather large understatement.


----------



## 2hats (May 18, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes I read that, disappointing.


Though one should of course take most, if not all, MSM vaccine related articles with a large pinch of salt: there are a lot of competing [financial] interests. The discipline specific journals are more reliable but it's going to take some months (at least) for the efficacy of various candidates to become really apparent.


----------



## elbows (May 18, 2020)

Yeah thats a big reason you wont see me engaging with those topics too much at this stage. I will sound more pessimistic than I really am if I have to resort to moaning about journalism by press release too often, I'd rather just wait and celebrate any eventual proven successes once they are solid and the extent of their achievements more certain. Its a potential rollercoaster of hope and disappointment that I have no intention of getting on.


----------



## quimcunx (May 18, 2020)

brogdale said:


> Seeing reports of French researchers suggesting that they've found evidence of Covid infection as early as mid November 2019 reminds me that, back in September a family friend (NHS A&E doctor) strongly advised us all to take up offers of flu jabs (which we did) as he had heard of reports of very virulent 'flus' being associated with the Southern Hemisphere winter 'flu season.
> 
> Almost certainly coincidental & all that, but I when I recalled this advice I thought that it would be unsurprising if researchers eventually push back Covid origins even further.



I dont really see how we could push it back much further when we see the exponential increase in cases  after our first few known cases and the virus could be passed on fairly unfettered.


----------



## elbows (May 18, 2020)

I wont have time to go looking for a writeup until this evening or maybe even another day, but its the awkwardly timed World Health Assembly meeting today, where all sorts of blame and politics and calls for investigations and new investigative powers and stuff like that will be on display. I've seen some live reports coming through but I dont have time to follow the detail now. I think I read a preview last night that suggested the WHO would get plenty of stick too. Anyone interested in covering this event?


----------



## brogdale (May 18, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> I dont really see how we could push it back much further when we see the exponential increase in cases  after our first few known cases and the virus could be passed on fairly unfettered.


Yeah, I get that and elbows response above is, as ever, helpful and measured.
That said, hearing that patients may have been x-rayed with characteristic lung symptoms as early as Nov 16 2019 suggests that infection/transmission may have been possible in early Nov/end October? I believe the average incubation being 5 days & symptomatic period 18 days, or there abouts.

Given that official first deaths were recorded months later it does make you question the 'intelligence'.


----------



## elbows (May 18, 2020)

It turns out there was a bloody stupid story about that sort of thing in the Express a few days ago. Normally I wouldnt link to such a publication but I dont think I have any choice if I want to make this point.









						Scientist call for COVID-10 public inquiry after 2019 death spike
					

CORONAVIRUS may have been in Britain as early as October 2019 and two leading UK scientists have called for a public inquiry to pinpoint exactly when the first cluster of cases occurred, Express.co.uk can exclusively reveal.




					www.express.co.uk
				




The article never seems to end and eventually manages to accumulate some more reasonable points by the end. 

Its often useful to look at what articles like that are failing to mention much or emphasise. In this case flu only just gets mentioned at all, with no important detail about the context of that winter. The flu season was early in this country last winter, and timing of flu epidemics are often used by the press to make dramatic claims. Because if you typically have flu peaks in December, January or February, that obviously affects the historical comparisons when you have a season that is earlier or later than that. The UK press have used this before in recent years with Australian flu epidemics in order to hype them up beyond the actual severity of epidemic (though thats not to say they didnt have some bad flu seasons in recent years)  - its easy to make claims about the death rate being at a very high rate compared to the same stage of winter in other years, if the flu happens to be early that year. This is misleading, better to compare the peak death rate with the peak death rate of other seasons and not to be wedded to calendar weeks that the peaks happened on.

So yeah, context. Which I do have to say is quite interesting in this case and there is much that a decent article could make of things. Because unless my memory has gone completely wrong, this last winter was described as the most challenging one the NHS has faced. Its not necessarily that easy to find all the press articles about that now, because the pandemic has obviously generated 8 gazillion articles which share some common search terms. But here is just one example:









						NHS winter crisis: extra beds created by 52% of UK hospitals
					

BTS says 48% are still using overflow beds introduced for the same period last year




					www.theguardian.com
				




I'm certainly not sure I have a full picture. It looks complicated and like a number of factors came together to make the winter very challenging for the NHS. Deeper analysis of the cases that drove the situation would need to be undertaken, but the early flu season certainly satisfies some of my questions about it. All the same, as I've mentioned before, its all down to numbers in many ways - countries would generally be expected to miss sporadic cases unless they had some advanced warning of what to be on the lookout for, and even then would not find it hard to overlook cases until the numbers requiring hospital treatment caused unusual levels of demand that were harder to miss.


----------



## weltweit (May 18, 2020)

2hats said:


> Though one should of course take most, if not all, MSM vaccine related articles with a large pinch of salt: there are a lot of competing [financial] interests. The discipline specific journals are more reliable but it's going to take some months (at least) for the efficacy of various candidates to become really apparent.


And unfortunately for them, a lot of monkeys!


----------



## The39thStep (May 18, 2020)

These new bar rules are a bit confusing . Bar at lunchtime the bar owner brought the drinks out no mask and only put one on when serving some over 70s who had masks on . Didn’t ask me to put mask on when using inside WC. Different bar at tea time bar staff wearing inside visors but customers inside don’t have to wear them but do have to keep 2 metres . Just nipped out for a coffee and brandy at another and staff inside wearing visors , customers inside have to wear masks when ordering at bar but if you sit down inside to eat no mask necessary .


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 19, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> ... but if you sit down inside to eat no mask necessary .



That's handy.


----------



## teqniq (May 19, 2020)

Some conflict of interest eh?

Trump's New COVID-19 Czar Holds $10 Million In Vaccine Company Stock Options


----------



## weltweit (May 19, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Some conflict of interest eh?
> 
> Trump's New COVID-19 Czar Holds $10 Million In Vaccine Company Stock Options


Isn't Trump supposed to be cleaning out the swamp?


----------



## teqniq (May 19, 2020)

Doctor, my sides.


----------



## Supine (May 19, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Isn't Trump supposed to be cleaning out the swamp?



When he said cleaning he meant filling. Simple mistake to make.


----------



## editor (May 19, 2020)

Apols if already posted:











						Every Covid-19 Symptom We Know About Right Now, From Head to Toe
					

The most perplexing things about a disease that has proved vexing, deadly, and ‘unprecedented in many ways’




					elemental.medium.com


----------



## treelover (May 19, 2020)

Some coronavirus patients still struggling to breathe two months after diagnosis
					

The dire consequences of severe cases of COVID-19 are well known, but many patients with relatively mild cases of the virus are reporting extreme fatigue and other symptoms continuing well beyond the anticipated recovery period.




					www.abc.net.au
				




More on post covid symptoms, very worrying


----------



## editor (May 19, 2020)

Smart move...















						Check out the smart way this New York park is keeping people six feet apart
					

Think of them as little parking spots for humans.



					www.timeout.com
				




And how it was


----------



## weltweit (May 19, 2020)

Just took a look at the 73rd World Health Assembly.

The Americans had a go at the Chinese, the Chinese had a go at the US and the Taiwanese, the Ukranians had a go at Russia and vice versa, the Cubans had a go at the USA, and then the US had a go at Cuba and the WHO.

Happy families.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (May 20, 2020)

editor said:


> Apols if already posted:
> 
> View attachment 213423
> 
> ...





There’s not much to go on yet, but some worry about the effects of Covid-19 on unborn children. 





__





						Risks of Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Pregnancy; a Narrative Review
					





					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				






			https://www.ajog.org/article/S0002-9378(20)30462-2/fulltext
		



Various issues reported, including pre-term birth and some risk of vertical transmission of the virus with associated issues for the newborn.

If this is generally the case, it’s going to be a really significant issue in countries and communities that have problems with maternal health care, high infant mortality, poor neonate care etc.


----------



## editor (May 20, 2020)

Stay classy, Singapore 









						Man sentenced to death in Singapore on Zoom call
					

A judge in Singapore has sentenced a man to death via a Zoom video-call for his role in a drug deal, one of just two known cases where a capital punishment verdict has been delivered remotely.




					uk.reuters.com


----------



## weltweit (May 20, 2020)

120 vaccine candidates at the moment (WHO)


----------



## Calamity1971 (May 20, 2020)

About time.


----------



## Epona (May 20, 2020)

Calamity1971 said:


> About time.




Wow, blimey - that was one of the questions raised at the briefing, they said they'd look into it and stuff happened - it's a fucking miracle!


----------



## weltweit (May 20, 2020)

from 18/05/2020 https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30402-3/fulltext
Silent COVID-19: what your skin can reveal


> Clinical manifestations of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are rare or absent in children and adolescents; hence, early clinical detection is fundamental to prevent further spreading. ..



Interesting presentations in children infected by covid19.


----------



## weltweit (May 20, 2020)

from 20/05/2020 Coronavirus spike in poor nations worries WHO: Live updates


> 17:50 GMT - Monkey studies encouraging for coronavirus vaccine
> 
> Two studies in monkeys offer some of the first scientific evidence that surviving COVID-19 may result in immunity from reinfection, as well as a positive sign that vaccines under development may succeed.





> In one of the new studies, researchers infected nine monkeys with the new coronavirus. After they recovered, the team exposed them to the virus again and the animals did not get sick.
> 
> In the second study, the same researchers treated 25 monkeys with experimental vaccines and then exposed them to the coronavirus. In the vaccinated animals, "we saw a substantial degree of protection," said Dr Dan Barouch.



and 



> 17:15 GMT - WHO reports most coronavirus cases in a day, worried about poor countries
> 
> There were 106,000 new cases of new coronavirus infection recorded worldwide in the last 24 hours - the most in a single day yet, the World Health Organization said, expressing concern for poor countries even as rich ones emerge from lockdown.





> "We still have a long way to go in this pandemic," WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a news conference. "We are very concerned about rising cases in low and middle income countries."


----------



## weltweit (May 20, 2020)

More troubling stories from Brazil

20/05/2020 Brazil's health workers battle Covid-19 'fake news'


----------



## 20Bees (May 20, 2020)

View attachment 213731View attachment 213731


----------



## 20Bees (May 20, 2020)

Even if the nearby (asymptomatic) swimmer coughs in front of you?


----------



## weltweit (May 21, 2020)

from 7.17 on 21/05/2020 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52749186


> Chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine or a placebo will be given to more than 40,000 healthcare workers from Europe, Africa, Asia and South America.
> 
> All the participants are staff who are in contact with Covid-19 patients.





> "We really do not know if chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine are beneficial or harmful against Covid-19," said one of the study's leaders, Prof Nicholas White.
> 
> But, he said, a randomised controlled trial such as this one, where neither the participant nor the researchers know who has been given the drug or a placebo, was the best way to find out.



and 

from 21/05/2020 Time running out on track and trace - NHS leaders


> Time is running out to finalise a track and trace strategy that would avoid a potential second surge in coronavirus cases, NHS leaders have said.
> 
> The NHS Confederation warned of "severe" consequences to staff and patients if the right system was not established rapidly.





> It said lockdown measures should not be eased until a clear plan was in place.
> 
> It follows the PM's pledge on Wednesday to introduce a "world-beating" contact tracing system in England from June.


----------



## teuchter (May 21, 2020)

Is there anywhere in the world that has seen something that could be described as a "second wave" yet? I don't been small clustered outbreaks, but a re-emergence in the general population that can not be contained.


----------



## robsean (May 21, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Is there anywhere in the world that has seen something that could be described as a "second wave" yet? I don't been small clustered outbreaks, but a re-emergence in the general population that can not be contained.











						Iran Sees New Surge in Virus Cases After Reopening Country (Published 2020)
					

Health experts say the government did not heed the warnings about easing restrictions too soon. Cases spike in eight provinces.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Teaboy (May 21, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Is there anywhere in the world that has seen something that could be described as a "second wave" yet? I don't been small clustered outbreaks, but a re-emergence in the general population that can not be contained.



Iran aside.  I think most places are still going through their first wave.   Even though lockdown restrictions are being relaxed in many places there's no sign yet of any major flare ups.  I suppose this is mildly encouraging but premature.


----------



## Artaxerxes (May 21, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Iran aside.  I think most places are still going through their first wave.   Even though lockdown restrictions are being relaxed in many places there's no sign yet of any major flare ups.  I suppose this is mildly encouraging but premature.



Another week or two and if we're seeing a second wave we'll see it then. Its to early for the UK so another 2-3 weeks, maybe four.


----------



## frogwoman (May 21, 2020)

Nigeria I think.


----------



## little_legs (May 21, 2020)




----------



## 2hats (May 21, 2020)

robsean said:


> Iran Sees New Surge in Virus Cases After Reopening Country (Published 2020)
> 
> 
> Health experts say the government did not heed the warnings about easing restrictions too soon. Cases spike in eight provinces.
> ...


Ten minutes ago...


----------



## miss direct (May 21, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Is there anywhere in the world that has seen something that could be described as a "second wave" yet? I don't been small clustered outbreaks, but a re-emergence in the general population that can not be contained.


Not yet, but I foresee one happening when they let under 20s and over 65s out in Turkey again (they've been under "house arrest" for two months, apart from a few hours allowance one day per week for the last two weeks).


----------



## little_legs (May 21, 2020)




----------



## frogwoman (May 21, 2020)

little_legs said:


>




Couldn't happen to a nicer guy but scary times tbh


----------



## Marty1 (May 21, 2020)

This results from this clinical trial should prove interesting.



> Up to 10,000 NHS workers will be be given the same drug being taken by Donald Trump in the first major UK trial of hydroxychloroquine to prevent coronavirus.











						Donald Trump drug to be tested on NHS staff with hopes it could prevent coronavirus
					

Study involving at least 20 NHS hospitals aims to establish whether anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine can fend off virus




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				








__





						NHS staff to be given hydroxychloroquine drug touted by Donald Trump to test if it prevents coronavirus
					





					www.msn.com


----------



## two sheds (May 21, 2020)

Any references as to how serious and how frequent the side effects are compared to paracetamol yet? As you claimed they had "about the same amount"  on another thread.


----------



## Marty1 (May 21, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Any references as to how serious and how frequent the side effects are compared to paracetamol yet? As you claimed they had "about the same amount"  on another thread.



Nope, my post on the Covid 19 America thread seems to have been heavily misconstrued by other posters - I made that post earlier today when I stopped for a bite at work - didn’t expect that kind of reaction and have since been prevented from responding there - so, let’s see how this clinical trial pans out, but it’s certainly an interesting development for our NHS.


----------



## two sheds (May 21, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Nope, my post on the Covid 19 America thread seems to have been heavily misconstrued by other posters - I made that post earlier today when I stopped for a bite at work - didn’t expect that kind of reaction and have since been prevented from responding there - so, let’s see how this clinical trial pans out, but it’s certainly an interesting development for our NHS.



How heavily misconstrued? You said the long and serious looking list of side effects for hydroxychloroquine someone posted were "about the same amount" as for paracetamol. Which would suggest to an unfamiliar observer that they'd be pretty safe taking the stuff without a prescription - as with paracetamol.  

Do  you not see how dangerous that could be? And if it was misconstrued then what did you mean by it?


----------



## Marty1 (May 21, 2020)

two sheds said:


> How heavily misconstrued? You said the long and serious looking list of side effects for hydroxychloroquine someone posted were "about the same amount" as for paracetamol. Which would suggest to an unfamiliar observer that they'd be pretty safe taking the stuff without a prescription - as with paracetamol.
> 
> Do  you not see how dangerous that could be? And if it was misconstrued then what did you mean by it?



This isn’t the thread to be continuing a discussion from another thread.  My ability to reply on the appropriate thread has been removed before I got the opportunity to do so - so it’s now a moot point.

I understand that people are bored witless with this lockdown but spinning comments into hysteria surely can only be a passing distraction.


----------



## two sheds (May 22, 2020)

If you could back up your 'heavily misconstrued' comment with some sort of reference I for one would be happy to ask editor for your ban on that thread to be lifted. You're pretending you could if given the chance, but you can't which is now just dishonest.

It wasn't heavily misconstrued, and there's no hysteria as you're now claiming, that's just an insult to try to cover your having been called out on it .


----------



## Epona (May 22, 2020)

If your ability to reply on one thread was removed it is probably safe to say that you continuing the discussion on a different thread is probably not a welcome development.


----------



## Marty1 (May 22, 2020)

two sheds said:


> If you could back up your 'heavily misconstrued' comment with some sort of reference I for one would be happy to ask editor for your ban on that thread to be lifted. You're pretending you could if given the chance, but you can't which is now just dishonest.
> 
> It wasn't heavily misconstrued, and there's no hysteria as you're now claiming, that's just an insult to try to cover your having been called out on it .



My last comment on this.

If the editor gave a single fuck of me responding on the thread in question - he wouldn’t have banned me from it.

It’s no big deal, it could have been responded to easily and appropriately but fwiw - I was attempting to point out that many things come with a long list of side effects/warnings when taken.

But this hydroxychloroquine has been politicised to fuck now Trumps said he’s taken it so any objectivity of it will be thrown out the tainted window.


----------



## two sheds (May 22, 2020)

"Could have been responded to easily and appropriately" lol

And the only reason you're promoting it is because Trump has said he's taken it. You're politicizing it while pretending to be all objective.


----------



## teuchter (May 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> thrown out the tainted window.


A novel mixed metaphor


----------



## editor (May 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> My last comment on this.
> 
> If the editor gave a single fuck of me responding on the thread in question - he wouldn’t have banned me from it.
> 
> ...


And off this thread you go too with another warning in your ear. Your faux 'objective' spiel is painfully transparent now, and has been called out too many times by too many posters. Think very carefully what you post next.

*edit: oh, it's pushed him into a temp ban. Oh dear, how sad, nevermind.


----------



## Raheem (May 22, 2020)

little_legs said:


>



Possibly didn't die from Covid-19, then.


----------



## spring-peeper (May 22, 2020)

Raheem said:


> Possibly didn't die from Covid-19, then.



If he was tested and came back positive for having the virus, it would be a covid-19 death, no?


----------



## Raheem (May 22, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> If he was tested and came back positive for having the virus, it would be a covid-19 death, no?


Brazil recently had to abandon its hydrochloroquine testing because patients being given it were so much more likely to die than the control group.

If you get crushed by a piano with covid19, what's the cause of death?


----------



## spring-peeper (May 22, 2020)

Raheem said:


> If you get crushed by a piano with covid19, what's the cause of death?




Bravo!!!!

That is the stupidest thing I read in a while.


----------



## krtek a houby (May 22, 2020)

Marty1 said:


> Nope, my post on the Covid 19 America thread seems to have been heavily misconstrued by other posters - I made that post earlier today when I stopped for a bite at work - didn’t expect that kind of reaction and have since been prevented from responding there - so, let’s see how this clinical trial pans out, but it’s certainly an interesting development for our NHS.



Of course you knew what you were doing. Blaming other posters won't wash.


----------



## Raheem (May 22, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> Bravo!!!!
> 
> That is the stupidest thing I read in a while.


Like you can read, yer fat cock.


----------



## spring-peeper (May 22, 2020)

Raheem said:


> Like you can read, yer fat cock.



The Canadian lady says, "Oh, do go back to UK politics or where ever you usually post."



eta: I read your post as:


----------



## Raheem (May 22, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> The Canadian lady says, "Oh, do go back to UK politics or where ever you usually post."
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Yeah, but maybe you should think about not being such a fucking cock. Up to you.


----------



## co-op (May 22, 2020)

This may have been posted already as its a couple of weeks old but a good thread here on transmission risks which seems to confirm the evidence elsewhere that transmission is really concentrated on prolonged close contact (eg within households) and among the elderly (ie the elderly are more susceptible to contracting the disease in the first place, not just more vulnerable to the effects).


----------



## Smangus (May 22, 2020)

editor said:


> And off this thread you go too with another warning in your ear. Your faux 'objective' spiel is painfully transparent now, and has been called out too many times by too many posters. Think very carefully what you post next.
> 
> *edit: oh, it's pushed him into a temp ban. Oh dear, how sad, nevermind.



Bout time, don't really understand how someone can consistently be banned from so many threads and not get perma-binned.🤔 Still I'd be a shit mod no doubt


----------



## little_legs (May 22, 2020)

What the fuck is wrong with people, man...


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (May 22, 2020)

little_legs said:


> What the fuck is wrong with people, man...



it's the failure of thinking things through:
their freedom to not have to follow the guidelines does not trump other people's freedom to not want the idiots near them.


----------



## frogwoman (May 23, 2020)

__





						How deadly is COVID-19? A rigorous analysis of excess mortality and age-dependent fatality rates in Italy
					

We perform a counterfactual time series analysis on 2020 mortality data from towns in Italy using data from the previous five years as control. We find an excess mortality that is correlated in time with the official COVID-19 death rate, but exceeds it by a factor of at least 1.5. Our analysis...




					www.medrxiv.org
				




Population fatality rate has got to 0.58% in Bergamo.


----------



## frogwoman (May 23, 2020)

> Fatality and Infection Ratios
> Having established that the observed excess deaths can reasonably be attributed to COVID-19, we can use our estimates and
> uncertainties of the excess mortality from the CGPh
> counterfactual to calculate the fatality rates and infection fractions for
> ...



Jesus.

Pdf is here 


			https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.15.20067074v3.full.pdf


----------



## krtek a houby (May 25, 2020)

State of emergency lifting in Japan

PM Abe to lift state of emergency across Japan | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News


----------



## gosub (May 26, 2020)

Sorry about the quality (think is attempt to beat the copyright bots)


----------



## smokedout (May 26, 2020)

Some really good news from Spain if the worldmeters site is accurate.  Seems like yesterday almost 2000 people came back to life!


----------



## smokedout (May 26, 2020)

Perhaps we're finally entering the zombie phase of the apocalypse.


----------



## elbows (May 26, 2020)

smokedout said:


> Some really good news from Spain if the worldmeters site is accurate.  Seems like yesterday almost 2000 people came back to life!
> 
> 
> 
> View attachment 214804



Its not just the worldometer site. I've been collecting certain data from Spains official daily update for months, and I didnt enter yesterdays numbers because they went down instead of up and I didnt have time to search for the official explanation.


----------



## petee (May 26, 2020)

i haven't gone to the actual article but that hastag ...


----------



## elbows (May 26, 2020)

If there was one piece of data I could choose to have access to for the UK in a timely, localised fashion now, it would quite possibly be that sort of sewage sludge data.

Reading the paper I see that their sewage data was only 3 days ahead of hospital admissions, but thats still much better than nothing.


----------



## elbows (May 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its not just the worldometer site. I've been collecting certain data from Spains official daily update for months, and I didnt enter yesterdays numbers because they went down instead of up and I didnt have time to search for the official explanation.



I translated the explanation from an official document and it said:



> An individualized validation of the cases is being carried out, so there may be discrepancies with respect to the added notification of previous days.


----------



## two sheds (May 27, 2020)

This is depressing as fuck  









						Colombian designers prepare cardboard hospital beds that double as coffins
					

As coronavirus cases soar in Latin America, doctors say unorthodox idea may be necessary




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Teaboy (May 27, 2020)

two sheds said:


> This is depressing as fuck
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I saw that, grim.

I wonder if you get to keep it if you pull through?  Would save on expensive funeral costs later down the line.  Every cloud.


----------



## zora (May 28, 2020)

Whoa, that is grim. Like an anti-placebo


----------



## yield (May 28, 2020)

South Korea re-imposes some coronavirus restrictions after spike in new cases
Thu 28 May 2020


> More than 250 new infections were traced to clubs and bars in the Itaewon district of Seoul in early May, while the latest cluster has been linked to a distribution centre in Bucheon, near Seoul, owned by the e-commerce firm Coupang.
> 
> Local health authorities have tested about 3,500 of the centre’s 4,000 employees, the Yonhap news agency said, with 69 cases confirmed so far.





> The company reportedly failed to enforce preventive measures, such as requiring employees to wear masks and keep a distance of about two metres.
> 
> Media reports said some employees had been told to continue working even after they started displaying symptoms of the virus, including a woman in her 40s who is thought to be the first person at the centre to have contracted the virus.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (May 29, 2020)

They've closed some of the schools in Seoul again today. Poor South Korea. They'd had a really good run before this. I think in countries like South Korea, where the virus is suppressed, there will still be little outbreaks like this for quite some time. Same here in China. We've got to learn to live like this I guess.


----------



## frogwoman (May 29, 2020)

Sk are doing well and didn't need a lockdown but the last conversation I had with my friend everyone was getting fed up with the 2 metre thing and were anxious to return to sine sort of normality, they've had social distancing in place before almost everyone else too


----------



## elbows (May 29, 2020)

I was so nervous about that stuff that for a long time I refused to give much credit and cheer to nations that had done well in the early days. Eventually I relented and gave credit where it was due, but that doesnt mean I'm any less nervous about their futures, or any more complacent about the challenges they face.

Eventually the UK will be in a somewhat similar position too (albeit presumably with a much higher proportion of health & care staff having already had the disease), which is why I keep going on about the future being lots of local stories of outbreaks in many ways, wth full nationwide lockdown just there in the background as a last resort if we completely lose control again.


----------



## not-bono-ever (May 29, 2020)

Coronavirus: Monkeys 'escape with COVID-19 samples' after attacking lab assistant
					

One of the primates was reportedly later spotted up in a tree, chewing one of the sample collection kits.




					news.sky.com
				




there is something familiar about this...


----------



## miss direct (May 29, 2020)

Here in Turkey things are getting weird. Mosques reopened today so there's been gathering there (with some restrictions, but still...) As of midnight there's another weekend curfew (uffffffffff) but as of Monday, everything will be open again, apart from bars and nargile cafes (that's convenient!)


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (May 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> I was so nervous about that stuff that for a long time I refused to give much credit and cheer to nations that had done well in the early days. Eventually I relented and gave credit where it was due, but that doesnt mean I'm any less nervous about their futures, or any more complacent about the challenges they face.
> 
> Eventually the UK will be in a somewhat similar position too (albeit presumably with a much higher proportion of health & care staff having already had the disease), which is why I keep going on about the future being lots of local stories of outbreaks in many ways, wth full nationwide lockdown just there in the background as a last resort if we completely lose control again.



I think credit and cheer is still deserved by countries that have suppressed the virus to the point where they can count the cases and track them. I really hope that eventually the UK _is _in a similar position.


----------



## The39thStep (May 29, 2020)

Further deflation of the restrictions come into play next week with the exception of Lisbon where 80 percent of new cases are coming from. Restaurants / bars can exceed 50% capacity if they have tables socially distanced and screens between tables, theatres cinemas can open with masks and socially distanced seating , maximum groups up from 10 - 20 , decision to open or close larger shops over 400m square delegates to local councils and a warning that although beaches open next week they’ll be closed if social distancing and occupancy rates are not adhered to. Border between Portugal and Spain open but on designated days . Next overall review every three weeks but Lisbon reviewed weekly .


----------



## The Octagon (May 29, 2020)

not-bono-ever said:


> Coronavirus: Monkeys 'escape with COVID-19 samples' after attacking lab assistant
> 
> 
> One of the primates was reportedly later spotted up in a tree, chewing one of the sample collection kits.
> ...



Man, 2020 is a wild ride


----------



## ice-is-forming (May 31, 2020)

Our premier has been staunch,  in the face of bullying, and has refused to open Qld boarders yet. Not until other states get their numbers down. This has pissed a lot of people off because they like traveling to Qld ( the sunshine state) in winter. Plus our biggest income is from tourism.

But they've started a huge campaign about 'holidaying in your home state', only until now you could only travel 150k, and this wasn't going to be changed to 250k until June 14th.

But today it was announced that  the schedules been changed so that from tomorrow Queenslanders can travel anywhere within Qld   which means I can go and see boy 3 and the grandbaby 

I personally think that this is a good compromise, between health and economy.


----------



## Mr.Bishie (May 31, 2020)

Interesting article, which makes this virus all the more frightening given that it’s not just the elderly or medically vulnerable that are at risk:









						Coronavirus May Be a Blood Vessel Disease, Which Explains Everything
					

Many of the infection’s bizarre symptoms have one thing in common




					elemental.medium.com


----------



## weltweit (May 31, 2020)

Thought I would revisit the worldometers charts briefly:





The numbers don't tell a good story, we haven't been testing much, till recently, and don't have so many cases, but we have been counting deaths and we are #2 in the world! No 2.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Jun 1, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Thought I would revisit the worldometers charts briefly


Considering how many people are out on the streets in close contact with each other in the US right now, I'm anticipating a massive jump in their figures over the next couple of weeks.


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 1, 2020)

New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says is there any truth to this?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jun 1, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says is there any truth to this?



Well, we can live in hope.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jun 1, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says is there any truth to this?



They've said similar here about the strain in the northeast that caused a mini-outbreak. They said it's distinct from the Wuhan strain, and people's symptoms were comparatively mild. I'd like to believe it, but I have lost a lot of faith in good news these last few months.


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 1, 2020)

Mumbai: How Covid-19 has ravaged India's richest city
					

With nearly 30,000 cases, Mumbai accounts for more than a fifth of India's coronavirus infections.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## zora (Jun 1, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says is there any truth to this?



I would love to believe this, too. But while it's just one article quoting one doctor, I remain sceptical. Also, wouldn't a question be if the virus necessarily would behave that way everywhere? (Genuine question, I have no idea myself.). And if it's only doing this after first ravaging a large part of the population...mind you, we are very much at that point in the UK, so one can dream...


----------



## 2hats (Jun 1, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says is there any truth to this?


There is no peer reviewed research to verify this hypothesis - there's a clue in the article: "pending scientific evidence to support the thesis".


----------



## elbows (Jun 1, 2020)

2hats said:


> There is no peer reviewed research to verify this hypothesis - there's a clue in the article: "pending scientific evidence to support the thesis".



Other clues are to be found in additional quotes from that doctor:



> “We’ve got to get back to being a normal country,” he said. “Someone has to take responsibility for terrorizing the country.”



Not a good look! Although I do understand where they are coming from when they in terms of alarmism about the prospects of the second wave. My own stance is that I have no bloody clue, and my instincts are conflicted. I do not like assumptions about the timing and inevitability of a second wave. But neither am I confident such a scenario will be avoided. And I do expect some future twists to the tale. A lot of these feelings cancel eachother out and I am left with a rather blank sense of what to expect in the future. Its one of the reasons I am about to take a holiday from discussing the pandemic, I will exhust myself with these conflicting feelings, I will go round in circles for who knows how long.

There are also a whole bunch of very different things that can feed into the perception about the current 'potency' of this virus. Has the nature of the virus itself actually changed in some way? Or is there a big difference in the sorts of people who are getting infected with it now, compared to earlier on? eg, to give a very crude example, have the most vulnerable and exposed already been killed off?

There have been jokes in recent months about how we have all become armchair epidemiologists. Well I am a long way away from having the full spectrum of knowledge that epidemiologists have, and some of that missing detail might be very important for understanding the chances of and timing of subsequent waves. I will try to learn a few more things this month to see if it helps, but I fear I'll still mostly be stuck in a waiting game that will sap my energy if I let it.


----------



## elbows (Jun 1, 2020)

Ah.



> The name of Alberto Zangrillo, however, is strongly linked to Silvio Berlusconi. The professor has been the Knight's personal doctor for several years and has followed him in the various operations that the leader of Forza Italia has undergone in recent years With the passage of time, a friendship was established between the two and not only of doctor and patient. And who knows if he advised the ex-prime minister to move to Nice during the coronavirus emergency.



Machine translated from Chi è Alberto Zangrillo, il medico personale di Silvio Berlusconi


----------



## Doodler (Jun 1, 2020)

little_legs said:


> What the fuck is wrong with people, man...




Sense of entitlement plus an unexamined wellspring of contempt which snobbish women in particular sometimes unleash on low-ranking male workers. In the US this is the hallmark of the Karen, in the UK it's sometimes accompanied by a distinctive barking tone of voice reserved for the lower orders.


----------



## elbows (Jun 1, 2020)

Regarding the Spain data discussed a little earlier in this thread. Its still shit. Here is the latest explanation which I machine translated from recent official reports:



> A validation of the deceased cases is being carried out to correct the historical series, which will be updated weekly. Only the cases in which the date of death is the day before the time of writing this report are added to the total on a daily basis.


----------



## elbows (Jun 1, 2020)

Another strange and interesting angle:



> Our epidemiological analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic clearly indicates a decrease of prevalence and impact of SARS-CoV-2 infection in populations living at altitude of above 3,000 masl. The reason for decreased severity of the global COVID-19 outbreak at high altitude could relate to both environmental and physiological factors.











						Does the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 virus decrease at high-altitude?
					

In the present study we analyze the epidemiological data of COVID-19 of Tibet and high-altitude regions of Bolivia and Ecuador, and compare to lowland…




					www.sciencedirect.com


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 1, 2020)

Coronavirus: Nicaragua’s midnight burials tell tale of a hidden crisis shit


----------



## elbows (Jun 1, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says is there any truth to this?



More on this shit.

3h ago 17:32



> Other experts countered that Zangrillo may have mistaken a higher detection rate of asymptomatic cases for diminished potency of the virus.
> 
> “In a situation where the numbers of severe cases are falling, there may be time to start observing people with less severe symptoms – giving the impression that the virus is changing,” said Martin Hibberd, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.





> Dr Oscar MacLean, of the MRC-University of Glasgow centre for virus research, said Zangrillo’s claims were “not supported by anything in the scientific literature, and also seem fairly implausible on genetic grounds”.





> The dispute came as Italy prepares its next big step in easing its three-month-old national lockdown with the readmittance of foreign tourists from Wednesday and an end to the ban on travel between regions. The government has insisted that this is one of the most dangerous phases of the pandemic and has urged people to abide by social distancing rules and wear masks to prevent the virus from spreading once again.


----------



## weltweit (Jun 2, 2020)

Mongolia - gives a lesson for the rest of us!


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 2, 2020)

Iran’s coronavirus response: A lesson in what not to do - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
					

The coronavirus crisis has widened the chasm between the state and society in Iran at a time when the regime had already encountered major shocks in just the last few months.




					thebulletin.org
				












						Iran's rapid rise in Covid-19 cases stokes fears of second wave
					

Health ministry reports 3,000 new cases in 24 hours after lockdown was eased in April




					www.theguardian.com
				




Iran's 2nd wave looks grim


----------



## belboid (Jun 2, 2020)

2hats said:


> Some doubts about the effectiveness of the ChAdOx1 vaccine candidate (the Oxford vaccine) arising from response in animal models (all subjects shed viral RNA after SARS-CoV-2 exposure and produced a low titre of neutralising antibody).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


well, I'm off for my face to face screener tomorrow, first chimpanzee injection on Monday if they don't think I'm too mental/heavy a smoker.


----------



## weltweit (Jun 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Mongolia - gives a lesson for the rest of us!


Seems there is something wrong with my Mongolia link I can't see it myself.

The jist was that despite Uulan Bataar being home to 1.5 million souls Mongolia has managed to avoid any Covid-19 deaths by taking action early


> Mongolia has had the best COVID-19 response in the world. Not only do they have zero deaths, they have zero local transmissions. Mongolia didn’t flatten the curve or crush the curve — they were just like ‘fuck curves’. In Mongolia, there simply wasn't an epidemic at all.
> 
> And no, they didn’t just get lucky.
> 
> ...



More info here: COVID-19 pandemic in Mongolia - Wikipedia and more here: Coronavirus Mongolia, Daily update of COVID 19 in Mongolia

Basically Mongolia is an example of proximity to Wuhan China but of successful defeat of the virus. We should be looking at Mongolia as much as we do New Zealand or South Korea, or Germany.


----------



## belboid (Jun 3, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Mongolia - gives a lesson for the rest of us!



Weird, your link shows in my quote but not in your op

oh, and now link to it is broken too

https:// medium.com/ATindica/covid-underdogs-mongolia-3b0c162427c2


----------



## weltweit (Jun 3, 2020)

It was an article at medium.com and had an @ in the url. No matter, I have posted the start of it above.


----------



## Supine (Jun 3, 2020)

Bored so I just did a Google to compare flight numbers in/out of UK Vs Mongolia.

Looks like we have 220k flights a month in/out of 60 airports and Mongolia has <1k flights a month from one airport. 

Probably much easier to socially isolate if you are nomadic tribes people too.


----------



## weltweit (Jun 3, 2020)

Supine said:


> Bored so I just did a Google to compare flight numbers in/out of UK Vs Mongolia.
> 
> Looks like we have 220k flights a month in/out of 60 airports and Mongolia has <1k flights a month from one airport.
> 
> Probably much easier to socially isolate if you are nomadic tribes people too.


1.5 million people in the capital. No community spread at all.


----------



## Supine (Jun 3, 2020)

A lot of data is suggesting asymptomatic cases are 40-45%. But worryingly asympomatic doesn't mean no damage...


----------



## Yossarian (Jun 4, 2020)

weltweit said:


> 1.5 million people in the capital. No community spread at all.



Yep, Ulaanbaatar is apparently massively overcrowded, with hundreds of thousands of people living in yurts in shantytowns without running water, etc., which makes their achievement in stopping the spread all the more impressive.


----------



## BristolEcho (Jun 4, 2020)

What's the latest on Belerus?


----------



## robsean (Jun 4, 2020)

Belarus emerges as Eastern Europe's coronavirus hotspot
					

Belarus is among the five European countries reporting the highest cumulative numbers of confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) cases over the past 14 ...




					www.intellinews.com


----------



## quimcunx (Jun 4, 2020)

Supine said:


> Bored so I just did a Google to compare flight numbers in/out of UK Vs Mongolia.
> 
> Looks like we have 220k flights a month in/out of 60 airports and Mongolia has <1k flights a month from one airport.
> 
> Probably much easier to socially isolate if you are nomadic tribes people too.



Why do people keep talking about how many flights we have like it's some force of nature we can't control, or that it's a reason to not bother doing anything?  We know we have a huge amount of international flights in and out.  That's more reason to be proactive, not less.


----------



## BristolEcho (Jun 4, 2020)

robsean said:


> Belarus emerges as Eastern Europe's coronavirus hotspot
> 
> 
> Belarus is among the five European countries reporting the highest cumulative numbers of confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) cases over the past 14 ...
> ...



Thanks I was googling it and then going through news, but probably an idea to put covid and not just Belerus.


----------



## elbows (Jun 4, 2020)

Supine said:


> A lot of data is suggesting asymptomatic cases are 40-45%. But worryingly asympomatic doesn't mean no damage...




Good. Its greater recognition of this stuff that is one of the reasons I've been able to tale a holiday now. Albeit a holiday that still includes sporadic posts like this one 

There is still the usual caveat in that paper:



> The difficulty of distinguishing asymptomatic persons from those who are merely presymptomatic is a stumbling block. To be clear, the asymptomatic individual is infected with SARS-CoV-2 but will never develop symptoms of COVID-19. In contrast, the presymptomatic individual is similarly infected but eventually will develop symptoms. The simple solution to this conundrum is longitudinal testing—that is, repeated observations of the individual over time. Unfortunately, only 5 of our cohorts include longitudinal data. We must therefore acknowledge the possibility that some of the proportions of asymptomatic persons are lower than reported.







__





						ACP Journals
					





					www.acpjournals.org
				




But all the same, it is still clear that the picture involves plenty of people who will remain asymptomatic, in contrast to the 'only a few % asymptomatic' red herring from the WHO China team which I've questioned ever since.

It shouldnt have been so hard for humanity to accept this stuff from the start, after all when we actually bother to look at this side of other respiratory diseases like influenza, asymptomatic cases appear to be a very large part of the picture. eg:





__





						NEJM Journal Watch: Summaries of and commentary on original medical and scientific articles from key medical     journals
					

NEJM Journal Watch reviews over 250 scientific and medical journals to present important clinical research findings and insightful commentary




					www.jwatch.org
				






> On average, roughly 20% of the unvaccinated had serologic evidence of influenza infection, but up to three quarters of the infected were asymptomatic. The proportions did not vary significantly between seasonal and pandemic influenzas.



And thats precisely why I was skeptical of anything that downplayed the extent and role of asymptomatic cases in this pandemic in the first place.

Even when this stuff is properly acknowledged and explored, the human response can still be very frustrating, because its still an aspect which is deliberately overlooked when inconvenient. eg in the UK various aspects of the response are to deal with the asymptomatic side of things (eg whole household isolation), but when they wanted to change how parliament was being run, the likes of Hancock were still talking as though a good degree of safety could be enforced via protocols that only really work for obviously symptomatic cases.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jun 4, 2020)

Queensland opens its pubs again today.


----------



## William of Walworth (Jun 4, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Queensland opens its pubs again today.


With restrictions, it looks like.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jun 4, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> With restrictions, it looks like.



Yep, n that's cool. I think we've had 0 new cases for a while now, our state governments been very cautious, and I suppose it's this caution that's allowing restrictions to reduce ahead of the schedule.


----------



## sojourner (Jun 5, 2020)

Ace. The North West R rate is now 1.01. Where I live is gonna be in permanent fucking lockdown before too long.









						Coronavirus 'R' infection number now above 1 in the North West
					

New analysis shows region now has the highest reproduction number for infections




					www.liverpoolecho.co.uk


----------



## 2hats (Jun 5, 2020)

sojourner said:


> Ace. The North West R rate is now 1.01. Where I live is gonna be in permanent fucking lockdown before too long.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Note that is a modelling projection and not from testing any community cohorts.


----------



## editor (Jun 5, 2020)

Shocking that it takes a newspaper investigation to get a medical paper retracted 



> The Lancet paper that halted global trials of hydroxychloroquine for Covid-19 because of fears of increased deaths has been retracted after a Guardian investigation found inconsistencies in the data.
> 
> The lead author, Prof Mandeep Mehra, from the Brigham and Women’s hospital in Boston, Massachusetts decided to ask the Lancet for the retraction because he could no longer vouch for the data’s accuracy.
> 
> ...











						Covid-19: Lancet retracts paper that halted hydroxychloroquine trials
					

Retraction made after Guardian investigation found inconsistencies in data




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Boru (Jun 5, 2020)

Iteland all set to open up again. Finally some light at the end of the tunnel and bringing forward some aspects of phase 3 into phase 2.. will make great difference to daily life.. and news on pubs and restaurants at end of June too..

From the article;
Everything outlined in Phase 2 has been given the green light while some of Phase 3 has been brought forward.
*Stay Local:* You may travel within your own county, and up to 20 kilometres from your home if crossing county boundaries.
*Meeting other people:* You may meet up to six people from outside your household both indoors and outdoors for social gatherings.
*Sports:* Organised outdoor exercise, sporting, cultural or social activities of up to 15 people may take place.









						At a glance - what's new from 8 June and beyond
					

The Taoiseach has announced an acceleration of the roadmap into easing the restrictions brought in to contain the spread of Covid-19.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 5, 2020)

sojourner said:


> Ace. The North West R rate is now 1.01. Where I live is gonna be in permanent fucking lockdown before too long.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



How do they know?


----------



## sojourner (Jun 5, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> How do they know?


Have you read the article?


----------



## weltweit (Jun 5, 2020)

sojourner said:


> Have you read the article?


I tried, but that website is a mess .. ads everywhere etc


----------



## William of Walworth (Jun 5, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I tried, but *that website is a mess .. ads everywhere etc*



I agree, that was  a *real* pain to read 

But here's the Manchester Evening News version of the same information.

Not a lot better , but a bit more manageable, and with slightly more information


----------



## Mation (Jun 5, 2020)

elbows said:


> Another strange and interesting angle:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


That could fit with what that New York doctor was saying early in April about this resembling altitude sickness...


SheilaNaGig said:


> Dr Cameron...? ER and critical care doctor in New York City.... but no hospital named.
> 
> ETA
> 
> ...


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 5, 2020)

Police Beat and Injure Ecuador’s Covid-19 Protesters | Human Rights Watch


----------



## editor (Jun 6, 2020)

Bloody hell


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 6, 2020)

editor said:


> Bloody hell



Where's this?


----------



## weltweit (Jun 6, 2020)

I think the voice is speaking Portugese.


----------



## Cid (Jun 6, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Where's this?



Paris









						Google Maps
					

Find local businesses, view maps and get driving directions in Google Maps.




					www.google.com


----------



## Cid (Jun 6, 2020)

RubyToogood planetgeli (and other google earth thread people) they shall know us by our ability to locate places very quickly off scant information


----------



## Supine (Jun 6, 2020)

India doesn't look good but nor does the UK


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 6, 2020)

Iirc some of the Indian government policies towards migrant workers helped spread covid more?


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2020)

Whenever I see daily new cases graphs like that, the UK one screams such a story of 'we really fucked up our testing regime' that I still find it hard to get many other stories out of it. If I look at various other data too then its possible to see a 'May was rather disappointing in terms of the speed of decline of the virus' story which the new cases graph can then play into, but I cant trust it on its own, it needs other data to back it up that isnt based on our testing regime.

Anyway, have to keep similar angles in mind when looking at some other countries data. In this case, I have not been keeping up with the testing capacity & regime in India, so I dont know how much better detection is playing a part in their graph.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jun 7, 2020)

We hadn't had any new cases in Qld for almost a month, then yesterday it was announced that an infected essential worker had travelled from Melbourne to Bundaberg via Brisbane. This is our local health services response ( I live in the wide bay which includes Bundaberg)


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 7, 2020)

Coronavirus: Iran swamped by a second wave after lockdown eased to save jobs
					

The doctor in the Tehran pharmacy had the sort of immobile, handsome face that only expensive surgery could buy. As patients filed past him, coughing and spluttering, he kept up a stream of reassuring comments while they complained of tiredness, pain and fever. On that cold morning in early March, t




					www.thetimes.co.uk
				




Does anyone have access to this article?


----------



## belboid (Jun 7, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Coronavirus: Iran swamped by a second wave after lockdown eased to save jobs
> 
> 
> The doctor in the Tehran pharmacy had the sort of immobile, handsome face that only expensive surgery could buy. As patients filed past him, coughing and spluttering, he kept up a stream of reassuring comments while they complained of tiredness, pain and fever. On that cold morning in early March, t
> ...



The doctor in the Tehran pharmacy had the sort of immobile, handsome face that only expensive surgery could buy. As patients filed past him, coughing and spluttering, he kept up a stream of reassuring comments while they complained of tiredness, pain and fever.

On that cold morning in early March, the reality of the coronavirus pandemic was just hitting Tehran after an outbreak in the holy city of Qom. While the world’s focus was on the ravages of the virus in China and infections were just starting to take hold in Europe, no one knew how bad it would get in Iran.

There was no inkling that, according to the latest official figures released last week, more than 150,000 would be infected and more than 8,000 die, making Iran the worst-affected country in the Middle East. Nor that, three months on, just as the infection rate seemed to be coming under control and the country was getting back to normal, a second wave would now hit Iran, triggering thousands of new cases in one day last week.


I was in Tehran in early March as the government and state machinery, after first ignoring the spread of the virus and dismissing calls for a lockdown as a foreign plot, finally grasped the scale of the pandemic and moved to contain it.
Shrines at Qom were shut and universities and shopping centres closed across the country. For the first time since the foundation of the Islamic Republic, Friday prayers were cancelled.

For some it was already too late. The deputy health minister, Iraj Harirchi, had been filmed at a parliamentary session, sweating and coughing, before being diagnosed with Covid-19. Then came another MP, and then an adviser to the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Tehran was gripped by fear. Even many supporters of the government were unsure whether to trust official claims about the virus. Tehranis rushed out to buy masks. In a city racked by shortages of imported medical goods because of international sanctions, many returned home empty-handed.
“We’re out of masks, I’m afraid,” the doctor in the pharmacy told one older woman that morning. “Hand sanitiser too,” he added, before she could ask.
“I’m strong, so don’t worry about me,” he grinned as the patients left clutching bags of painkillers or antibiotics. “But the old people, I don’t know. I think they’ll get sick, and I don’t know if we’ll be able to import medical equipment because of the sanctions. The hospitals aren’t ready for the severe cases.”

His concerns were prescient. By mid-April, according to government figures, there were more than 75,000 confirmed cases and 4,777 people had died. A parliamentary report calculated that the death toll could be twice as high. Satellite photos showed that a graveyard outside Qom had been expanded to make room for the dead. Some of my friends in northern Tehran hid at home, terrified to go outside. Signs hung across motorways urging people to avoid shaking hands and stroking animals.
Distrust of official statistics and reporting helped conspiracy theories and fear to breed. Abroad, royalists backing descendants of the Shah and supporters of the MEK, a cult-like opposition group, spread propaganda about the regime, falsely claiming that people were collapsing in droves on the streets of Tehran.
All the while, although the Iranian medical system is robust in many respects, people were dying. Mehdi Variji, 43, a doctor at a Tehran clinic, posted a video from his apartment saying he felt unwell and had a fever that would not go down. He died a few days later — one of the more than 100 health workers who would lose their lives to Covid-19.
There were fears of a mass cover-up of deaths nationally. But two foreign diplomats with deep insight into the regime told me in March that although the official figures did not show the true number of deaths, they did not believe there had been a cover-up on a massive scale.
Who was to be believed when, in early April, an Iranian health official said about half a million people could have been infected and the curve had not been flattened — and the next day the WHO claimed cases in Iran were “flattening off”?
One incontestable fact was that the economy — already ravaged by sanctions, economic mismanagement and a fall in oil prices, Iran’s main source of income — was in tatters. Many ordinary people were desperate to get back to work. In mid-April the government began scaling back the lockdown, allowing some businesses and mosques to reopen.
“The easing of the lockdown was a response to the same kind of economic pressure that we’re seeing in countries around the world,” said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the Bourse & Bazaar think tank.
“There is a significant part of Iran’s population that earns a daily wage, and the government’s ability to provide welfare transfers under lockdown was being tested. The wider economy was suffering because you had this really dramatic decrease in consumption. Shops and restaurants were closed, and it was hard to maintain manufacturing activity in the lockdown.”

Several weeks later, and three months after the first cases, a second wave has hit. Last week more than 3,500 new cases were recorded in 24 hours, the most in two months.
“The government was under pressure to allow the economy to start running again,” said Batmanghelidj. “We’re seeing the consequences of that now as people have stopped observing some social-distancing regulations.”
Given that its outbreak had begun early on, Iran’s experience offered a warning to other countries that were starting to reopen, Batmanghelidj said. “What happens in Iran is a bellwether for what is likely to happen in countries that are similar in terms of development,” he said. “It raises concerns over what will happen in countries like Turkey or Russia, which are starting to open up.”
Iran is different, however, in two ways. First, although sanctions exclude medical supplies, they hamper its ability to fight the second wave.
“While the US has blocked the banking system of Iran, practically the government cannot import any medicine or medical equipment,” said Seyed Hossein Mousavian, a former nuclear negotiator who is at Princeton University in America. “Moreover, Iran’s oil export is now close to zero . . . leaving no financial resources.”
Second, the pandemic has shown the stark divisions in Iran’s leadership — with the health ministry backing away from the more outlandish claims by the clerics and the Revolutionary Guards, who blame Iran’s enemies for the virus.
When the head of the guards and the supreme leader insinuated that the virus was a result of biological warfare, the current deputy health minister, Reza Malekzadeh, said that was “highly unlikely”. “We should have certainly been more vigilant,” he said, adding that there had been “some delay in informing the public”.
Now that the second wave has hit, health officials emphasise the dangers of relaxing social distancing. The health minister, Saeed Namaki, has warned that if officials and the public believed that the pandemic was over, the virus would “score a goal in the 90th minute”.


----------



## Mation (Jun 7, 2020)

Iran COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Iran Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				






(Sorry no lockdown dates on it.)


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 7, 2020)

belboid said:


> The doctor in the Tehran pharmacy had the sort of immobile, handsome face that only expensive surgery could buy. As patients filed past him, coughing and spluttering, he kept up a stream of reassuring comments while they complained of tiredness, pain and fever.
> 
> On that cold morning in early March, the reality of the coronavirus pandemic was just hitting Tehran after an outbreak in the holy city of Qom. While the world’s focus was on the ravages of the virus in China and infections were just starting to take hold in Europe, no one knew how bad it would get in Iran.
> 
> ...



Thanks


----------



## spring-peeper (Jun 8, 2020)

Brazil gov't yanks virus death toll as data befuddles experts
					

Brazil's government has stopped publishing a running total of coronavirus deaths and infections in an extraordinary move that critics call an attempt to hide the true toll of the disease in Latin America's largest nation.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				






> Saturday’s move came after months of criticism from experts that Brazil’s statistics are woefully deficient, and in some cases manipulated, so it may never be possible to understand the depth of the pandemic in the country.
> 
> Brazil’s last official numbers showed it had recorded over 34,000 deaths related to the coronavirus, the third-highest number in the world, just ahead of Italy. It reported nearly 615,000 infections, putting it second, behind the United States. Brazil, with about 210 million people, is the globe’s seventh most populous nation.
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Jun 8, 2020)

The Brazil data stuff is a disgrace.

And now back to the topic of asymptomatic cases:









						Exclusive: Half of Singapore's new COVID-19 cases are symptomless - taskforce head
					

At least half of Singapore's newly discovered coronavirus cases show no symptoms, the co-head of the government's virus taskforce told Reuters on Monday, reinforcing the city-state's decision to ease lockdown restrictions very gradually.




					uk.reuters.com
				






> “Based on our experience, for every symptomatic case you would have at least one asymptomatic case,” said Lawrence Wong, adding that the discovery was made in recent weeks as Singapore ramped up testing.





> He said the discovery of the level of asymptomatic carriers prompted the government’s plans for a gradual lifting of curbs that require many people to still work from home and mix socially only with their families.


----------



## Supine (Jun 8, 2020)

Interesting









						When 511 Epidemiologists Expect to Fly, Hug and Do 18 Other Everyday Activities Again (Published 2020)
					

Even experts need to make personal decisions about what risks are worth it in the age of coronavirus. For some, life will never be the same again.



					www.nytimes.com


----------



## gosub (Jun 8, 2020)




----------



## bimble (Jun 9, 2020)

I am a bit embarrassed to be doing this but have missed so many pages that I’m just going to ask, maybe get pointed to where it’s already been discussed plenty:
What do people make of the french hospital that’s been suggesting they had cases spreading  much earlier than previously thought, in late 2019. 
Is that likely true and if so what are the implications not so much retrospectively but looking ahead thanks









						French doctors believe they may have treated coronavirus patients last fall: report
					

In what would mark a massive shift in the timeline of coronavirus spread, French researchers believe there is evidence coronavirus may have been in Europe as early as November of 2019.




					thehill.com
				












						SARS-CoV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019
					

The COVID-19 epidemic is believed to have started in late January 2020 in France. Here we report a case of a patient hospitalised in December 2019 in …




					www.sciencedirect.com


----------



## prunus (Jun 9, 2020)

bimble said:


> I am a bit embarrassed to be doing this but have missed so many pages that I’m just going to ask, maybe get pointed to where it’s already been discussed plenty:
> What do people make of the french hospital that’s been suggesting they had cases spreading  much earlier than previously thought, in late 2019.
> Is that likely true and if so what are the implications not so much retrospectively but looking ahead thanks
> 
> ...



There appears to be a small but growing amount of evidence suggestive of the idea that the virus has been circulating for quite a few months longer than originally thought. I expect more research will either confirm or confound this in time, but for now I’m certainly keeping it in mind as a possibility.

How this affects our models and understanding of the virus’s overall epidemiology I can’t work out and I haven’t read any more learned people’s analysis of that yet.  In particular if as has been suggested it was in Wuhan for several months before the January expansion in cases, what triggered that expansion?  Seasonal effects (I speculate wildly)?

See eg https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/42669767
“Analysis of hospital traffic and search engine data in Wuhan China indicates early disease activity in the Fall of 2019”


----------



## elbows (Jun 9, 2020)

So far the timescales discussed in such research dont end up radically changing the picture for me. Its normal for a new virus not to be spotted until the numbers involved reach high levels, and not until groups vulnerable to severe disease from the virus are infected to a notable degree. The idea that things were going along at a low level until something changed which lead to sudden explosive growth is interesting, but the work that points to earlier timing does not usually contain clues and answers about that. And there are probably some dull potential answers to that as well as more interesting ones, and I would guess we are more likely to learn more about these things from events in the future than from all this retroactive analysis. Such analysis might then be used to support theories coming from more recent events, to see if the new theory also explains what they think was seen in 2019.


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 9, 2020)




----------



## teqniq (Jun 12, 2020)




----------



## BristolEcho (Jun 12, 2020)

frogwoman said:


>




Seems to have been confirmed now.


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 13, 2020)

BristolEcho said:


> Seems to have been confirmed now.



Where was it confirmed?


----------



## BristolEcho (Jun 13, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Where was it confirmed?



I heard it on my BBC app via Google assistant, but can't find a written article so possibly mistaken?


----------



## Maltin (Jun 13, 2020)

BristolEcho said:


> I heard it on my BBC app via Google assistant, but can't find a written article so possibly mistaken?











						Burundi’s outgoing President Pierre Nkurunziza dead from ‘cardiac arrest’
					

The President of Burundi, Pierre Nkurunziza, died on Monday, according to a government statement.




					www.theafricareport.com
				




ETA sorry, was just posting confirmation of death but now seems that the query might be around him having Covid 19


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 13, 2020)

There's this from the BBC swahili service . It seems very likely. 
	

	







						‘Rais Nkurunziza amefariki kwa corona’
					

Duru za karibu na rais Pierre Nkurunziza zimethibitisha kuwa kiongozi huyo wa Burundi amefariki baada ya kuambukizwa virusi vya corona.




					www.bbc.com


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 13, 2020)

Beijing reimposes lockdown measures after new Covid-19 outbreak
					

Dozens of domestically transmitted cases at city’s largest wholesale food market prompt move




					www.theguardian.com
				




Oh no


----------



## William of Walworth (Jun 13, 2020)

<edited to include froggy's original post because of page break>


frogwoman said:


> Beijing reimposes lockdown measures after new Covid-19 outbreak
> 
> 
> Dozens of domestically transmitted cases at city’s largest wholesale food market prompt move
> ...



From that report :



> Mass testing of hundreds of people working at the market uncovered a further 45 asymptomatic cases. The market claims to be the largest wholesale agricultural market in Asia, and Beijing News reported *that it supplies nearly 90% of the city’s fruit and vegetables*.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jun 14, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> <edited to include froggy's original post because of page break>
> 
> 
> From that report :



They have set up outdoors wholesale markets to keep things going while this one is closed, so that supply chains can be maintained. 

Please note, the whole of Beijing has not gone into lockdown. China has got very good at locking down at the neighbourhood level. Beijing also has capacity to process 90,000 tests a day, apparently. This will be a grim few weeks for Beijing people, but this is a regular thing here - small numbers of infected people are found and their contacts are traced and tested, and the community those cases are from goes into "closed management". It is seriously not ideal that it's been linked to a market, and given the size of Beijing, I expect there will be far more cases than have been found in the previous mini-outbreaks, but they are well prepared for this. I think it's unlikely that this becomes the "second wave" everyone breathlessly anticipates China having.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jun 14, 2020)

I really like the contact tracing graphics we get here. You can see on the one below that it shows each individual and their age, and where they've been. So the first one is an individual who is 52, and it shows all the places they went, from 31st May onward. The bolded orange places they visited are they times they went to the wholesale market. The final location everyone on the list visits is the fever clinic/ hospital.


----------



## two sheds (Jun 14, 2020)

Fucking hell, that's some system. A bit of a shame our government hasn't built experience in doing something like that rather than trying to give out contracts to their private sector mates who have no experience, and cover their arses for all the other things they've not done.


----------



## Yossarian (Jun 14, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Fucking hell, that's some system. A bit of a shame our government hasn't built experience in doing something like that rather than trying to give out contracts to their private sector mates who have no experience, and cover their arses for all the other things they've not done.



I think the whole "authoritarian surveillance state" thing gave China bit of a head start, tbf.


----------



## two sheds (Jun 14, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I think the whole "authoritarian surveillance state" thing gave China bit of a head start, tbf.



Yes, true, it's something we can only dreeeam of here 

Although still impressive software.


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 14, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> They have set up outdoors wholesale markets to keep things going while this one is closed, so that supply chains can be maintained.
> 
> Please note, the whole of Beijing has not gone into lockdown. China has got very good at locking down at the neighbourhood level. Beijing also has capacity to process 90,000 tests a day, apparently. This will be a grim few weeks for Beijing people, but this is a regular thing here - small numbers of infected people are found and their contacts are traced and tested, and the community those cases are from goes into "closed management". It is seriously not ideal that it's been linked to a market, and given the size of Beijing, I expect there will be far more cases than have been found in the previous mini-outbreaks, but they are well prepared for this. I think it's unlikely that this becomes the "second wave" everyone breathlessly anticipates China having.



I didn't think it would be the 2nd wave either. It looks like they have detected it pretty rapidly tbh.


----------



## a_chap (Jun 14, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Fucking hell, that's some system. A bit of a shame our government hasn't built experience in doing something like that...





two sheds said:


> Yes, true, it's something we can only dreeeam of here



Indeed.

We absolutely need much better state surveillance here.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jun 14, 2020)

Not peer reviewed yet, but this report seems to have pulled together a lot of information about a cover-up by the Chinese authorities, not least involving a massive  under-reporting of both inflection rates & deaths. 



> Discrepancies in Beijing’s COVID-19 reporting have been raising suspicions since January. Now a new study of Chinese medical, media and bureaucratic reports points to a massive cover-up of the outbreak’s severity.
> 
> A new study accuses Beijing’s reported number of infections and deaths from the pandemic of lacking any credibility. And that will have had a severe impact on how the world responded to the outbreak.
> 
> The preprint study, which is yet to undergo the scientific quality-control process of peer review, was published on the medRxiv early release service.





> By late January, Wuhan’s hospitals were already reportedly under severe strain. They offered 90,000 beds. Another 100,000 beds were activated in hotels and schools. Yet Beijing’s figures reported only 33,000 COVID-19 cases.
> 
> By March 23, 42,600 doctors and healthcare workers had been rushed to Wuhan from other provinces to support the 90,000 already there. But Beijing reported only 50,000 cases.





> The US researchers say they have identified an important clue in the reported activities of Wuhan’s strictly regulated crematorium business.
> 
> Typically, these are restricted to operating just four hours each day. This is usually in the morning in keeping with Chinese funeral traditions.
> 
> ...





> The study says that, based on its inferred data, China may have had anywhere between 305,000 and 1.27 million COVID-19 cases by February 7. The number of dead, it finds, was likely already about 6800 to 7200.
> 
> Official figures released by Beijing at this time reported only 13,600 infections and 545 dead.











						Coronavirus: Crematorium data prove China was lying about COVID-19
					

Discrepancies in Beijing’s COVID-19 reporting have been raising suspicions since January. Now a new study of Chinese medical, media and bureaucratic reports points to a massive cover-up of the outbreak’s severity.




					www.news.com.au


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jun 14, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Yes, true, it's something we can only dreeeam of here
> 
> Although still impressive software.



I'm pretty sure they just have humans doing it. From what I understand, they can pull up your cellphone data if they need to, but we don't have an app that tracks us like that.


----------



## agricola (Jun 14, 2020)

more cases in Japan too:



> Tokyo has confirmed 47 new coronavirus infections, the highest since the government lifted the state of emergency nationwide in late May.
> 
> The daily figure was also the highest since May 5, the Asahi television reported.
> 
> Of these 47 cases, said Jiji news agency, *18 were working at a club which provides male drinking companions for women.*


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 14, 2020)

Just wondering how places like texas will be able to keep reimposing and lifting lockdowns as is suggested in some reports? It seems like a recipe for riots tbh


----------



## two sheds (Jun 14, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Just wondering how places like texas will be able to keep reimposing and lifting lockdowns as is suggested in some reports? It seems like a recipe for riots tbh



Be interesting to see how they react to that in a republican state


----------



## bimble (Jun 15, 2020)

This is an extraordinary bit of data visualisation, have a look.








						Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19 in 2020
					

A Flourish data visualisation by Mark Perry



					public.flourish.studio


----------



## weltweit (Jun 15, 2020)

bimble said:


> This is an extraordinary bit of data visualisation, have a look.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hi bimble, yes a neat and cool graphic! 
Why no deaths from Cancer though? 
Not suggesting it would be anything like Malaria, just wondering why they didn't include it?


----------



## bimble (Jun 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hi bimble, yes a neat and cool graphic!
> Why no deaths from Cancer though?
> Not suggesting it would be anything like Malaria, just wondering why they didn't include it?


Yep, lots of causes are missing, at the bottom it says the total deaths on the chart are only 7% of all deaths? I am not sure. Was glad to see that at the bottom though because otherwise homicide is enormous, and I thought that was one of the things we moderns could say for ourselves, that that as cause of death has drastically reduced.


----------



## LDC (Jun 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hi bimble, yes a neat and cool graphic!
> Why no deaths from Cancer though?
> Not suggesting it would be anything like Malaria, just wondering why they didn't include it?



Probably not easy collated statistically across the globe, same as MIs and other medical killers?


----------



## weltweit (Jun 15, 2020)

I remember seeing an old chart of deaths from generations ago, on here, and one of the causes of deaths was put down as SUDDENLY


----------



## Yossarian (Jun 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hi bimble, yes a neat and cool graphic!
> Why no deaths from Cancer though?
> Not suggesting it would be anything like Malaria, just wondering why they didn't include it?



They left out the top 15 causes of death - I think the intention was to show that the coronavirus is killing a lot more people than some other common causes of death, including the flu, which some people were comparing it to in the early days, if they'd produced a graphic showing COVID deaths being dwarfed by cancer deaths it might have seemed like they were downplaying the pandemic.


----------



## bimble (Jun 15, 2020)

Blimey. More suicides than homicides. That’s an achievement of a sort.


----------



## Doodler (Jun 15, 2020)

International survey reports that people in just 3 out of 53 countries think the US handled the pandemic better than China.









						Only three out of 53 countries say US has handled coronavirus better than China
					

Survey reveals deep global dissatisfaction with US leadership under Donald Trump




					www.theguardian.com
				




Some kind of face-saving displacement activity is called for.


----------



## weltweit (Jun 15, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> They left out the top 15 causes of death - I think the intention was to show that the coronavirus is killing a lot more people than some other common causes of death, including the flu, which some people were comparing it to in the early days, if they'd produced a graphic showing COVID deaths being dwarfed by cancer deaths it might have seemed like they were downplaying the pandemic.
> 
> View attachment 217805


Cardio Vascular is so way in front I have to ask if there are any NHS bods who can explain what it really means and what we have to do to reduce our likelihood of dying from it?


----------



## prunus (Jun 15, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Cardio Vascular is so way in front I have to ask if there are any NHS bods who can explain what it really means and what we have to do to reduce our likelihood of dying from it?



Don’t get old.

Also, eat healthily, exercise, don’t smoke, drink and so on.

But mostly don’t get old. Although we have to die of something...


----------



## weltweit (Jun 15, 2020)

prunus said:


> Don’t get old.
> 
> Also, eat healthily, exercise, don’t smoke, drink and so on.
> 
> But mostly don’t get old. Although we have to die of something...


Hmm, vape now stopped smoking, eat better than I used to but still not great, don't take enough exercise that is an issue. Getting old … is happening :-/


----------



## miss direct (Jun 15, 2020)

Daily cases in Turkey have doubled since lock down finished a week or so ago. Not looking good. May return to curfews.


----------



## blameless77 (Jun 15, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> They left out the top 15 causes of death - I think the intention was to show that the coronavirus is killing a lot more people than some other common causes of death, including the flu, which some people were comparing it to in the early days, if they'd produced a graphic showing COVID deaths being dwarfed by cancer deaths it might have seemed like they were downplaying the pandemic.
> 
> View attachment 217805


And road injuries! I remember thinking as I watched it that they'd probably be neck and neck with Covid-19 soon...


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 16, 2020)

One of the most upsetting articles I've read 😭😭😭😭 Pakistan’s Lockdown Ended a Month Ago. Now Hospital Signs Read ‘Full.’


----------



## kabbes (Jun 16, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Hmm, vape now stopped smoking, eat better than I used to but still not great, don't take enough exercise that is an issue. Getting old … is happening :-/


There’s no guarantee at all that vaping will be better for your cardiovascular system than smoking.  It’s an unknown quantity.  Early signs are that it causes its own unique form of damage.


----------



## two sheds (Jun 16, 2020)

kabbes said:


> There’s no guarantee at all that vaping will be better for your cardiovascular system than smoking.  It’s an unknown quantity.  Early signs are that it causes its own unique form of damage.



Depending on the chemicals being vaped? And only for e-cigarettes I think (not disagreeing with you though).









						What Are the Early Warning Signs of Vaping Illness?
					

Many people have been hospitalized, and some have died from vaping illness. But how do you know if you have it? Here’s what to look out for.




					www.webmd.com


----------



## platinumsage (Jun 16, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I think the whole "authoritarian surveillance state" thing gave China bit of a head start, tbf.



South Korea are doing the same stuff.

I guess we think the GDPR trumps everything.


----------



## kabbes (Jun 16, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Depending on the chemicals being vaped? And only for e-cigarettes I think (not disagreeing with you though).
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Not just that.  There are also signs of long-term immunocompromisation of the lungs as a result of the fundamental ingredients of vaping.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jun 16, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> South Korea are doing the same stuff.
> 
> I guess we think the GDPR trumps everything.



Does SK have a tracking app? I thought that they, just like China, were mainly using the method of humans asking people where they've been.


----------



## platinumsage (Jun 16, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Does SK have a tracking app? I thought that they, just like China, were mainly using the method of humans asking people where they've been.



I mean they're publishing the age, gender and detailed itinerary of anyone who tests positive, which seems to be a step too far for Western countries.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jun 16, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> I mean they're publishing the age, gender and detailed itinerary of anyone who tests positive, which seems to be a step too far for Western countries.



I also think you have to have fairly few cases to make that viable. Can you imagine the UK one.  And, I mean, you have to have a proper testing system first too, or it's just meaningless.


----------



## platinumsage (Jun 16, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I also think you have to have fairly few cases to make that viable. Can you imagine the UK one.  And, I mean, you have to have a proper testing system first too, or it's just meaningless.



That would make it easier,  but still I feel we won't do it.

Right at the beginning in the UK we had a superspreader who returned from a skiing holiday (who has now gone public himself). At the time Public Health England were urging anyone who came into contact with him to come forward for testing, but they refused to give any details about who he was or where he had been.


----------



## elbows (Jun 16, 2020)

The UK is still exporting cases.









						New Zealand's first Covid cases in 24 days came from UK
					

The two women had been given special exemption to visit a dying parent in New Zealand.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




edit - oops I see this was already mentioned in the general chat thread.


----------



## LDC (Jun 16, 2020)

Shit news from Beijing too.


----------



## LDC (Jun 17, 2020)

elbows said:


> The UK is still exporting cases.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Better here though surely? Does raise questions about what countries like NZ are going to do longer term with this. Reminds me of that interview with an epidemiologist who said when discussing countries that have done well, it always needs to be ended with "...so far."


----------



## Teaboy (Jun 17, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Better here though surely? Does raise questions about what countries like NZ are going to do longer term with this. Reminds me of that interview with an epidemiologist who said when discussing countries that have done well, it always needs to be ended with "...so far."



Yes and that's been the UK Government's line and will continue to be until either loads of other countries are hit hard with a second spike and they'll say _told you so_.  Or it doesn't happen and they hope everyone moves on and forgets about all those people who died unnecessarily in the UK.


----------



## elbows (Jun 19, 2020)

Sewage analysis still proving rather useful, this time for trying to figure out when the virus was actually present in Italy.









						Coronavirus was already in Italy by December, waste water study finds
					

Scientists say samples from Milan and Turin showed virus traces long before cases were confirmed.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Yossarian (Jun 19, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> South Korea are doing the same stuff.
> 
> I guess we think the GDPR trumps everything.



China seems to have had a few problems with using the surveillance state to deal with the pandemic - while the regime are genuinely evil motherfuckers with secret police, high-tech surveillance, and everything else in the authoritarian toolbox, it's all geared toward tracking dissidents and local governments trying to track cases down can't always get hold of all the information they want.

But that's changing - the "health code" now being used to control travel, etc. was apparently based on the measures that were used to turn Xinjiang into a police state within a police state - unsurprisingly, some cities have already declared that it will be a permanent feature after the pandemic.



> The measures mirror Xinjiang, where authorities use a combination of data to label Muslim residents as safe, average or unsafe, notes James Millward, a professor of Chinese history at Georgetown University.
> 
> To the Communist Party, “the extremism in Xinjiang is a ‘metaphorical virus,’” Mr. Millward said. “Now we have a real virus, and some of the ways they are attempting to deal with it are the same.”











						How China Slowed Coronavirus: Lockdowns, Surveillance, Enforcers
					

Authorities used extreme tactics and ignored global norms for responding to epidemics. Now, health officials in other countries are taking a look at Beijing’s strategies.




					www.wsj.com


----------



## The39thStep (Jun 21, 2020)

Interesting initiative in Portugal 
*14h23 - State offers pipes to crack addicts* An investment of 78 thousand euros that will allow the 30 non-governmental organizations, most directly involved with drug addicts, to receive a few thousand pieces of equipment. The goal is to avoid contagion by sharing pipes.


----------



## a_chap (Jun 21, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> Interesting initiative in Portugal
> *14h23 - State offers pipes to crack addicts* An investment of 78 thousand euros that will allow the 30 non-governmental organizations, most directly involved with drug addicts, to receive a few thousand pieces of equipment. The goal is to avoid contagion by sharing pipes.



I cannot help but wonder what a Government-approved crack pipe looks like...


----------



## The39thStep (Jun 21, 2020)

a_chap said:


> I cannot help but wonder what a Government-approved crack pipe looks like...


I imagine it’s been designed with users tbh . I know a Portuguese woman who works at the local drug clinic , I’ll ask her.









						Covid-19. Estado oferece cachimbos a viciados em crack para evitar contágios
					

Em tempo de pandemia vão começar a ser distribuídos já no próximo mês, em julho, kits com cachimbos e filtros para os consumidores de drogas fumadas, como por exemplo o crack.




					www.rtp.pt


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 22, 2020)

Coronavirus death rates in Yemen's Aden could exceed its wartime fatalities
					

In Yemen's Aden, coronavirus-related death rates are exceeding wartime fatalities with the health sector becoming overwhelmed and a drop in international aid crippling healthcare work.




					edition.cnn.com
				




There's a very upsetting article here on the impact covid is having in Yemen


----------



## The39thStep (Jun 22, 2020)

Lisbon has gone back to an 8 at night shutdown for shops and bars due to a persistent 250 new cases a day for past fortnight. Issues around crowded accommodation , immigrant groups are being targeted for testing as they have low take up of testing due to status and language issues. Gatherings reduced to 10 after Police ended up closing down large crowds partying on beaches at night . 
Relatively small on world scale but significant Portuguese scale breakout of 80 cases following a party in Lagos in the Algarve . Ministry of Justice looking at prosecutions .


----------



## weltweit (Jun 23, 2020)

Yes, I see also Germany seems to have had the R at 2.8 or something in a region because of an outbreak in a meat processing plant. I expect they have or will have local restrictions because of that.


----------



## editor (Jun 24, 2020)

And now the anti-vaxx twat has got it









						Coronavirus: Novak Djokovic reveals he's an anti-vaxxer and it may stop his return to tennis
					

The world number one admits his return to international competition could be delayed by his stance.




					news.sky.com
				






> World number one Novak Djokovic said he is "so sorry" after becoming the latest tennis player to test positive for Covid-19.
> 
> Grigor Dimitrov, Borna Coric and Viktor Troicki all revealed they had coronavirus after playing at Djokovic's Adria Tour competition.
> Djokovic, 33, played fellow Serb Troicki in the first event in Belgrade.
> ...











						Djokovic 'so sorry' after positive test
					

World number one Novak Djokovic becomes the latest tennis player to test positive for Covid-19.




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## ruffneck23 (Jun 24, 2020)

Im sorry if we have already had this


----------



## Teaboy (Jun 25, 2020)

Bit of a mixed bag the global news today.  Aside from the situation in the states things still seem to be going in the wrong direction in Central & South America though the death rates remain pretty steady.  Looks like a bit of an outbreak in Central Asia as well.  Oz are having a small outbreak in Melbourne but seem to be all over it.

I have a feeling this sort of thing is going to be the new norm.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Jun 25, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I have a feeling this sort of thing is going to be the new norm.


Going to make booking holidays a crap shoot - you never know whether either your home country or destination is going to be under temporary lockdown or quarantine rules by the time you want to travel (or even during a holiday).


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jun 25, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> Going to make booking holidays a crap shoot - you never know whether either your home country or destination is going to be under temporary lockdown or quarantine rules by the time you want to travel (or even during a holiday).


Yep. Loads of Germans in the state that's had to re-lock down were about to go on holiday. Don't book anything you can't cancel and get a refund!


----------



## LDC (Jun 25, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Yes and that's been the UK Government's line and will continue to be until either loads of other countries are hit hard with a second spike and they'll say _told you so_.  Or it doesn't happen and they hope everyone moves on and forgets about all those people who died unnecessarily in the UK.



Ah Teaboy  the 'better here' I used up thread was I meant better in this sub forum as it's global news and had been stuck elsewhere in general chat. If that was causing confusion. Defo not better in UK than NZ!


----------



## Roadkill (Jun 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes, I see also Germany seems to have had the R at 2.8 or something in a region because of an outbreak in a meat processing plant. I expect they have or will have local restrictions because of that.



They do.  Gutersloh - where the plant is located - is locked down again, and my sister, who lives in the next major city, tells me they're preparing for the possibility of renewed lockdown there if the outbreak continues to spread.  In Germany the local authorities are more powerful and have more freedom of action than they do in the UK, which is partly why they're able to respond effectively to localised outbreaks.  If (or perhaps when) the same happens here I don't expect the response will be anything like as coordinated or effective.


----------



## phillm (Jun 25, 2020)

This looks to be a very good recent summary of where we're at it with this damn thing though obviously US-centric. Looks like the old normal isn't coming back anytime soon and certainly not this year.









						Six Months of Coronavirus: Here’s Some of What We’ve Learned
					

Much remains unknown and mysterious, but these are some of the things we’re pretty sure of after half a year of this pandemic.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## weltweit (Jun 25, 2020)

Roadkill said:


> ..
> If (or perhaps when) the same happens here I don't expect the response will be anything like as coordinated or effective.


Lets hope they can get their act together when it happens in a locality here in the UK.


----------



## Roadkill (Jun 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Lets hope they can get their act together when it happens in a locality here in the UK.



Hope is probably the best we have.  Whitehall is not sharing with local authorities the information on which its decisions are - ostensibly - based, they don't have the legal powers needed to enforce local lockdowns, and their capacity to respond to any emergency has been badly damaged by ten years of Tory austerity.


----------



## weltweit (Jun 25, 2020)

Roadkill said:


> Hope is probably the best we have.  Whitehall is not sharing with local authorities the information on which its decisions are - ostensibly - based, they don't have the legal powers needed to enforce local lockdowns, and their capacity to respond to any emergency has been badly damaged by ten years of Tory austerity.


Who, do you mean the local authorities don't have the legal powers? 
Can local shutdowns be managed/authorised by Whitehall?


----------



## Roadkill (Jun 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Who, do you mean the local authorities don't have the legal powers?
> Can local shutdowns be managed/authorised by Whitehall?



I don't know the precise ins and outs, but my understanding is that local authorities just do not have the legal right to order a shutdown except if they're given emergency powers they currently do not have (and won't unless the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 is invoked).  They can of course close individual businesses in certain circumstances, such as major food hygeine breaches, but they can't order pubs, shops etc to close _en masse_. Moreover, since they don't control the police they have no means of enforcement.


----------



## weltweit (Jun 25, 2020)

Well I think whatever the rules they are likely to be tested, I can't imaging with our recent record we are going to escape any localised runs of infections.


----------



## elbows (Jun 25, 2020)

edit - oops this was meant for the USA thread.


----------



## Supine (Jun 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Well I think whatever the rules they are likely to be tested, I can't imaging with our recent record we are going to escape any localised runs of infections.



The reality of a globalised world is that nowhere will escape outbreaks. The amount that occur will depend on travel and societies cautiousness etc.

I saw an article about the recent outbreak in Leicester where the council were complaining that they were promised postcode data from the government but it was not sent. That stuff needs to be improved because without the info outbreaks can’t be dealt with.


----------



## MrSki (Jun 26, 2020)

Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19
					

A Flourish data visualisation by Panos Kaissaratos



					public.flourish.studio


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jun 26, 2020)

The article below provides a clear and detailed summary of how the Beijing outbreak is being handled, in case anyone is wondering how that's working out for us. 









						Coronavirus: Beijing outbreak shows China's plan for preventing a second wave
					

A rapid launch of tracing and testing combined with localised lockdowns aims to keep the virus under control until a vaccine is found.




					theconversation.com


----------



## Yossarian (Jun 26, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> The article below provides a clear and detailed summary of how the Beijing outbreak is being handled, in case anyone is wondering how that's working out for us.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Only 33 neighbourhoods completely sealed off, but:



> A looser form of “closed management” has been adopted in the other 7,000 or so neighbourhoods in Beijing. These lower-risk areas must set up entry checkpoints, staffed 24 hours a day. Passes are needed to enter, and face or code verification is used to record who enters or exits. Temperature checks are also being conducted. Delivery drivers, housekeepers and other service industry personnel can only enter after registering and showing that their current status is green on the Beijing Health app.



Must make it very difficult to move around the city, or are the "neighbourhooods" more like blocks of flats and residential compounds?


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jun 26, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Only 33 neighbourhoods completely sealed off, but:
> 
> 
> 
> Must make it very difficult to move around the city, or are the "neighbourhooods" more like residential compounds?



I understand them to be compounds, but I'm not in BJ.


----------



## two sheds (Jun 26, 2020)

How useful are the temperature checks? They'll catch people with a fever but surely not people who have the virus and are contagious but not with a fever yet.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jun 26, 2020)

two sheds said:


> How useful are the temperature checks? They'll catch people with a fever but surely not people who have the virus and are contagious but not with a fever yet.



Yeah, in the scale of measures we have, they're probably the least critical. They do successfully cause me to stand outside Walmart while I stop sweating after I walk there too enthusiastically.


----------



## krtek a houby (Jun 26, 2020)

54 new cases in Tokyo

Tokyo reports 54 new cases of coronavirus | NHK WORLD-JAPAN News


----------



## Yossarian (Jun 26, 2020)

Coronavirus deaths in Hong Kong have soared 40% in less than a week - or to put it less alarmingly, two patients have died, bringing the total to seven.


----------



## prunus (Jun 26, 2020)

On the Guardian’s rolling news page so c’p’d here, very interesting figures:

Coronavirus live news: soldiers sent to southern Italian town amid tension over new outbreak

*Austria: 40% of residents in coronavirus 'ground zero' ski resort have antibodies*
Philip Oltermann
Some 40% of residents in the Tyrolean skiing resort that has been described as a possible “ground zero” for the pandemic in Europe have developed Covid-19 antibodies, scientists have found.
Scientists from the university of Innsbruck tested 80% of the population of Ischgl, a popular Austrian skiing destination from which tourists have been confirmed to have carried the virus to Germany, Britain, Denmark, Iceland, Belgium, the Netherlands, and even Brazil and Israel. 
Of 1,259 adults and 214 children tested, 42.5% had developed antibodies for the virus. The director of the university’s Institute for Virology, Dorothee von Laer, on Thursday described the result as the higher level of infection confirmed across the globe so far.
Of those infected, only 15% had experienced any sort of symptoms, the study found. This means as many as 85% experienced the infection without noticing.


----------



## Teaboy (Jun 26, 2020)

prunus said:


> On the Guardian’s rolling news page so c’p’d here, very interesting figures:
> 
> Coronavirus live news: soldiers sent to southern Italian town amid tension over new outbreak
> 
> ...



I'm actually not sure what this tells us?  Yes 40% of those tested had developed antibodies but without knowing how many were infected initially I'm not sure what we conclude from this apart from there being a reasonably significant number of people who develop antibodies.


----------



## two sheds (Jun 26, 2020)

Would any of those still be infectious? Presumably some who have only had the virus, but those who have had it and recovered a while ago?


----------



## Chz (Jun 26, 2020)

prunus said:


> On the Guardian’s rolling news page so c’p’d here, very interesting figures:
> 
> Coronavirus live news: soldiers sent to southern Italian town amid tension over new outbreak
> 
> ...


My wife, who works in the ski holiday biz, said there was a report out of France that one of the resorts tested well over 60% for the locals. Can't remember if it was Val D'Isere or Alpe d'Huez or whatnot, but one of the more popular ones.


----------



## prunus (Jun 26, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I'm actually not sure what this tells us?  Yes 40% of those tested had developed antibodies but without knowing how many were infected initially I'm not sure what we conclude from this apart from there being a reasonably significant number of people who develop antibodies.



It’s this bit that I found interesting “Of those infected, only 15% had experienced any sort of symptoms, the study found. This means as many as 85% experienced the infection without noticing.”

That’s a) a pretty high level of asymptomatic cases, which is interesting in itself for lots of reasons [NB one would need the demographics of the sample to do proper interesting analyses, but it’s still an interesting headline] and b) indicates that in something like at least 35% of asymptomatic cases an antibody response is generated - this is not something I at least had seen before.

Combined with the admittedly very small scale study suggesting significant proportions (75%?) of cases don’t develop antibody responses (they deal with it via T cells instead) the story starts to become very interesting indeed.

I wonder if the Austrian researchers could use their samples to test for parallel or otherwise T cell activation too?  That would be a great data set.

T cell senescence is a well-known phenomenon in older people (65+ progressively), being a more severe decline than antibody capacity, which of course fits the observed steep age-dependent mortality curve.

Speculation at this stage, but to me suggestive speculation, that there’s more to this than we are generally considering at the moment.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jun 26, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Would any of those still be infectious? Presumably some who have only had the virus, but those who have had it and recovered a while ago?


Short answer to that would be no. Antibody tests are only reliable a couple of weeks after you start getting ill, while new cases in Austria have been tiny for ages. Vast majority of these will be people who had it months ago.


----------



## two sheds (Jun 26, 2020)

ta


----------



## two sheds (Jun 26, 2020)

So those people would be a useful pool of people who could go out and about, delivering stuff to people (for example) without themselves getting infected or infecting others.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jun 26, 2020)

prunus said:


> It’s this bit that I found interesting “Of those infected, only 15% had experienced any sort of symptoms, the study found. This means as many as 85% experienced the infection without noticing.”
> 
> That’s a) a pretty high level of asymptomatic cases, which is interesting in itself for lots of reasons [NB one would need the demographics of the sample to do proper interesting analyses, but it’s still an interesting headline] and b) indicates that in something like at least 35% of asymptomatic cases an antibody response is generated - this is not something I at least had seen before.
> 
> ...


I'd like to see more T cell analyses too. There was a study in the US that found around 50% of its never-infected participants had T cells capable of attacking covid. You're right that there are a number of tantalising suggestions that this may have spread a lot wider than initial antibody tests indicate.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jun 26, 2020)

two sheds said:


> So those people would be a useful pool of people who could go out and about, delivering stuff to people (for example) without themselves getting infected or infecting others.


Potentially, yes, although in the case of this particular village, people are probably already pretty much safe. Infection levels in Austria have been low for a while now. It is interesting how it avoided mass death despite being one of the initial epicentres.


----------



## extra dry (Jun 26, 2020)

link to info. on covid and diabeaties


----------



## Teaboy (Jun 26, 2020)

Oh god, that's all we need.  It already looks like it causes lung scarring (though there are a lot of shouty people on the internet saying this is due to the ventilators), perhaps even in asymptomatic people and now this.

As its Friday I think I'm not going to think too much about these things.


----------



## elbows (Jun 26, 2020)

Its likely true and the big question is to the scale of the phenomenon. Its also another subject that is compatible with conventional wisdom - viral infection triggering the onset of type 1 diabetes is a known concept, and indeed I believe my brothers type 1 diabetes, which had its onset when he was about 12, coincided with the period following a notable influenza epidemic.


----------



## IC3D (Jun 26, 2020)

Remember when this was a thing?









						Does the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 virus decrease at high-altitude?
					

In the present study we analyze the epidemiological data of COVID-19 of Tibet and high-altitude regions of Bolivia and Ecuador, and compare to lowland…




					www.sciencedirect.com


----------



## The39thStep (Jun 26, 2020)

Just a bit more on the cases in Lisbon . The Left Block , who have cllr, there report that the 250 or so daily cases ( which is about 80%) of the national cases is heavily influenced by the high rate of testing in that area, many cases showing no symptoms at all and a particular issue with workers in construction and distribution. These two areas have mainly worked during the whole Covid 19 period , Low age , precarious type work with very little unionisation. Rents are high in that area and it’s either work or debt. Lots of travelling on public transport which Left Block have asked for tighter controls on standards of health and safety. Add that to poor and crowded housing and the fact that many are immigrants not just from Brazil and Africa but Eastern Europe often with language difficulties and questionable status . Big drive in these communities for them to get residencias and to sign up for health services . 
Portugal are carrying out just short of 100k tests per week despite this ie the more you test the more you find, the rate of infection per 1000 of the pop is a lot lower than the UKs .


----------



## Aladdin (Jun 27, 2020)

Coronavirus: Spanish researchers say they've found coronavirus trace in March 2019 water sample
					

The finding comes from a single sample and researchers say more would be needed to confirm the result.




					news.sky.com
				




Coronavirus: Spanish researchers say they've found coronavirus trace in March 2019 water sample
The finding comes from a single sample and researchers say more would be needed to confirm the result.

*That's March 2019 😳*


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jun 27, 2020)

This is what Australia is saying about England.









						UK stumbles towards new coronavirus crisis
					

Not even Boris Johnson's bluff and bluster can hide the grim truth about the scale of Britain's coronavirus crisis.




					www.smh.com.au


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jun 27, 2020)

In Australia we have 104 deaths nationally. There have been some recent outbreaks in  NSW and Victoria but the authorities are all over that. 









						Authorities 'very concerned' as Victoria records 41 new COVID-19 cases overnight
					

Victoria's Deputy Chief Health Officer says 41 new cases have been confirmed in the state overnight, as a testing blitz across Melbourne hotspots continues.




					www.google.com
				




I live in Qld and our labour premier has been staunch in fighting to keep our boarders closed. People who were opposing her have now gone quiet after the Victoria outbreaks. 

Usually at this time of year my town would be overflowing with grey nomads coming up from the south (Victoria) to live in their caravans by the beach. I can't say I miss them. 

Qld has been promoting holidaying in Qld for Queenslanders. Next week are the school holidays so I expect town will be busy but only with Queenslanders.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jun 27, 2020)

Plus those pics of people at Bournemouth is my idea of hell! Who the fuck thinks that's normal or enjoyable! It's just crazy.


----------



## Boudicca (Jun 27, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Plus those pics of people at Bournemouth is my idea of hell! Who the fuck thinks that's normal or enjoyable! It's just crazy.


There is 7 miles of beach here but the day trippers insist on heading for the pier in the middle and packing in like sardines.  So we locals can still enjoy it by heading for one of the quieter stretches.


----------



## hash tag (Jun 27, 2020)

Where do these people come from, what world are they living in - It's fine if you don't know anyone with C19  
Beachgoer says huge crowds 'don't matter because I don't know anyone with Covid'


----------



## planetgeli (Jun 27, 2020)

Patient 91: How Vietnam saved a British pilot and kept a clean Covid-19 sheet
					

Stephen Cameron spent 68 days on a ventilator but beat the odds to survive coronavirus.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




This is a nice story. Vietnam is such a strange place with many faults, especially of a governmental nature, but their approach to Covid has been exemplary and this tale of care for a patient with little regard paid to what part of the planet that patient is from is illustrative of the humanity that can be found there, despite still being an international pariah when it comes to aid and trade.


----------



## teuchter (Jun 27, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> This is what Australia is saying about England.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


No, it's what they're saying about the UK.


----------



## Doodler (Jun 28, 2020)

hash tag said:


> Where do these people come from, what world are they living in - It's fine if you don't know anyone with C19
> Beachgoer says huge crowds 'don't matter because I don't know anyone with Covid'


 
Some people learn from direct experience only.


----------



## Aladdin (Jun 29, 2020)

*Coronavirus: WHO director-general says ‘the worst is yet to come’ regarding pandemic, pleads to ‘quarantine COVID politics*


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Jun 29, 2020)

Flu virus with 'pandemic potential' found in China
					

The new strain, scientists say, is carried by pigs but can infect humans and requires close monitoring.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## frogwoman (Jun 29, 2020)

Mr.Bishie said:


> Flu virus with 'pandemic potential' found in China
> 
> 
> The new strain, scientists say, is carried by pigs but can infect humans and requires close monitoring.
> ...


Not now please, flu virus with pandemic potential


----------



## William of Walworth (Jun 29, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Not now please, flu virus with pandemic potential



Adjusting flu vaccines to fit a new strain is done every year, and will *probably*** be a fair bit easier to manage again in time (?) than findng a coronavirus vaccine any time soon.
ETA : and I'm not seeing too much?? in that BBC article to suggest any difficulty would be insurmountable??? 

**Note emphasis though -- I'm no scientist!


----------



## elbows (Jun 29, 2020)

There are a bunch of flu viruses with pandemic potential that are known, and who knows how many that are unknown to us. I usually take note of them but dont pay much attention to the subject at all unless there are notable outbreaks of said virus in humans which show the potential to escalate. So I'm sticking with just this coronavirus on the radar for now.


----------



## 2hats (Jun 30, 2020)

I try to avoid repeat posts but this, from another thread, is probably significant...

There is a growing body of research that points to T-cells playing an important role in the immune response to this virus, particularly in the degree of severity of outcome.

Depletion of certain T-cells (CD3+) may be key in severe cases. T cell senescence is well known to be a feature of ageing.








						A race to determine what drives COVID-19 severity
					

Clinical evidence reveals how host factors affect coronavirus infection.




					www.nature.com
				




Whereas a robust T cell response (here, CD4+ and CD8+) now appears to be a feature of mild and asymptomatic COVID-19 cases.








						Robust T cell immunity in convalescent individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19
					

SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19. We systematically mapped the functional and phenotypic landscape of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses in a large cohort of unexposed individuals as well as exposed family members...




					www.biorxiv.org
				




Which would go a long way to explaining the apparent (false) negative test results in cohorts who have experienced COVID-19 symptoms. (The bulk of antibody testing is looking for IgG and, some, IgM antibody responses - certainly that currently available to the public at home or via testing sites/labs).


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jun 30, 2020)

2hats said:


> I try to avoid repeat posts but this, from another thread, is probably significant...
> 
> There is a growing body of research that points to T-cells playing an important role in the immune response to this virus, particularly in the degree of severity of outcome.
> 
> ...


I posted a link a while ago to a study from May that found 50% presence of CD4+ (and 20% CD8+) in never-infected subjects. I guess one of the problems with calling them 'never-infected' is that you can't actually know for sure. I don't know how they judged that - if they were asymptomatic, they couldn't.


----------



## prunus (Jun 30, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I posted a link a while ago to a study from May that found 50% presence of CD4+ (and 20% CD8+) in never-infected subjects. I guess one of the problems with calling them 'never-infected' is that you can't actually know for sure. I don't know how they judged that - if they were asymptomatic, they couldn't.



If it’s the study I’m thinking if they used blood samples from (I think) 2018 for the ‘never infected’ samples.  Still not a guarantee of course, but probable.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jun 30, 2020)

prunus said:


> If it’s the study I’m thinking if they used blood samples from (I think) 2018 for the ‘never infected’ samples.  Still not a guarantee of course, but probable.


Ta. That makes sense. I was too lazy to go back and look.


----------



## editor (Jul 1, 2020)

Yeah, we're all in it together 









						US secures world stock of key Covid-19 drug remdesivir
					

No other country will be able to buy remdesivir, which can help recovery from Covid-19, for next three months at least




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## kropotkin (Jul 1, 2020)

Study in nature yesterday showing the vo study outcomes - no difference in viral load between symptomatic and asymptomatic cases. 
42% of the infected were asymptomatic. 









						Suppression of a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in the Italian municipality of Voâ€™ - Nature
					

The authors describe the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, viral load and the frequency of symptomatic versus asymptomatic and presymptomatic infection in an Italian town, before and after a strict 14-day lockdown.




					www.nature.com


----------



## teqniq (Jul 1, 2020)

This is really fucked up:









						Austin Hospital Withheld Treatment from Disabled Man Who Contracted Coronavirus
					

After doctors withheld treatment including nutrition and hydration for six days, Michael Hickson died leaving his wife and five children behind.




					thetexan.news
				






> Michael Hickson, husband to Melissa and father of five children, died at age 46 on Thursday, June 11 at St. David’s South Austin Medical Center after the hospital withheld treatment from him, including hydration and nutrition, for six days.
> 
> His wife was not notified of his death until the next morning after his remains had already been transported to a funeral home without her permission....


----------



## teuchter (Jul 1, 2020)

Local lockdowns in Melbourne









						Victoria will enforce a local lockdown for 10 postcodes from Thursday. This is how it will work
					

An escalating number of coronavirus infections in some of the state's metropolitan areas has changed life again for residents.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## MickiQ (Jul 1, 2020)

teqniq said:


> This is really fucked up:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


This being America I suspect this (rather than his disability) is why they let him die

Mrs. Hickson is convinced that the Luling facility worked against her because, due to an error in filing insurance claims, the facility was not receiving the payments and a bill of $90,000 had accrued.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jul 2, 2020)

Excess deaths tracker here from The Economist may be of interest for stats nerds. Don't know if it's been posted before.  It's pretty raw data, but I did a little dip after reading that US excess deaths, like here, are a good 30% higher than the official count. Unsurprisingly that does seem to be a general pattern. The official counts around the world probably all need to have an extra 20-30% added on to them.

TheEconomist/covid-19-excess-deaths-tracker


----------



## phillm (Jul 4, 2020)

Worryingly Israel is now having a second wave worse than the first.









						Coronavirus: Britain beware - Israel living the consequences of trying to return to normal
					

Daily COVID-19 cases have shot up since lockdown was eased, says Sky's Mark Stone, who warns the UK is only a few weeks behind.




					news.sky.com


----------



## elbows (Jul 4, 2020)

Theories on Japan:









						Coronavirus: Japan's mysteriously low virus death rate
					

Japan had no lockdown, it has an elderly population - so why haven't more people died from Covid-19?



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## William of Walworth (Jul 4, 2020)

This is a UK story, but I thought this in yesterday's Guardian looked mildly encouraging about current vaccine development at Imperial College -- admittedly the piece is mainly about the lead researcher's take on it, but I didn't think he was over-hyping? :




			
				Headline said:
			
		

> *'I'm cautiously optimistic': Imperial's Robin Shattock on his coronavirus vaccine*
> *Team is using new approach that could be cheap and scalable and become the norm within five years*



Any thoughts, elbows / anyone?


----------



## elbows (Jul 4, 2020)

As is mentioned in the piece, wait for the data. Thats also why I dont join in with many discussions about vaccines and medicines at this stage, I dont want to go on the rollercoaster of hope and disappointment, I am content to wait for the time when I will be very happy to see solutions be proven to be effective and rolled out. I have no predictions for which vaccine candidates will work, or the exact timescale.


----------



## phillm (Jul 4, 2020)

It looks like there are affordable and practical effective treatment protocols that are developing at pace.



			https://www.evms.edu/media/evms_public/departments/internal_medicine/EVMS_Critical_Care_COVID-19_Protocol.pdf


----------



## Anju (Jul 5, 2020)

I think mauvais suggested a custom wearable device would be a possible solution to UK tracing on another thread.

Why Singapore turned to wearable virus-trace tech


----------



## mauvais (Jul 5, 2020)

Anju said:


> I think mauvais suggested a custom wearable device would be a possible solution to UK tracing on another thread.
> 
> Why Singapore turned to wearable virus-trace tech


Yeah, sort of. I think a purpose-specific device has a lot more potential for success on a technical basis than trying to build anything on top of a consumer mobile phone platform.

I don't necessarily think it's a recipe for overall success though, and it's probably too late for the UK now anyway.


----------



## Anju (Jul 5, 2020)

mauvais said:


> Yeah, sort of. I think a purpose-specific device has a lot more potential for success on a technical basis than trying to build anything on top of a consumer mobile phone platform.
> 
> I don't necessarily think it's a recipe for overall success though, and it's probably too late for the UK now anyway.



Sorry, probably didn't give an accurate idea of what you wrote.I just recall thinking it was a good idea when you posted about it.


----------



## two sheds (Jul 5, 2020)

Was it a bell that you carry round, ringing while calling out "unclean"?


----------



## teuchter (Jul 6, 2020)

phillm said:


> Worryingly Israel is now having a second wave worse than the first.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I've noticed that when these 'second waves' are reported they nearly always seem to be in countries which had a very small 'first wave' (at least relative to the UK). This is what Israel looks like compared to the UK, adjusted for population:


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Jul 6, 2020)

teuchter said:


> I've noticed that when these 'second waves' are reported they nearly always seem to be in countries which had a very small 'first wave' (at least relative to the UK).


Everywhere looks good when you compare it to the UK (or US), though.


----------



## teuchter (Jul 6, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> Everywhere looks good when you compare it to the UK (or US), though.


Yes. But I don't now if such countries experiencing a 'second wave' means much in terms of predicting what's going to happen in the UK, because the pattern of their outbreak so far has been so different. I'll start worrying when a clear second wave becomes apparent somewhere like Italy or Spain.


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 7, 2020)

Bolsonaro has it apparently (again?)


----------



## sherriff rosco (Jul 7, 2020)

And we're back in lockdown.... sigh..









						Melbourne ordered back into coronavirus lockdown for six weeks
					

Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews announces a lockdown of metropolitan Melbourne as the state records its largest daily increase in COVID-19 cases since the start of the pandemic. Look back over the day's events.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## retribution (Jul 7, 2020)

sherriff rosco said:


> And we're back in lockdown.... sigh..
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's so interesting how different countries and states are responding differently to similar case numbers. Whilst the UK seems to be happy to open up with "low" numbers - so long as it doesn't overwhelm hospitals etc. -  I suppose our new lockdown in Melbourne suggests Dan Andrews wants us to eliminate the virus. I guess I'm happy with that if it limits deaths and suffering in the long term. Still, it sucks.


----------



## sherriff rosco (Jul 7, 2020)

Yep... going by the gung-ho reaction to the Flemington out break they are looking for a zero cases like other states ??


----------



## retribution (Jul 7, 2020)

Exactly. Those kiwis nearby look like they're having fun!


----------



## zahir (Jul 7, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Bolsonaro has it apparently (again?)











						Bolsonaro tells fans he had lung screening 'but everything is okay'
					

"I've came back from the hospital now, I've done a lung screening, my lung is clean, OK? I went to do a Covid exam a while ago, but everything is okay," he said. "You can't get very close [to me], OK? Recommendation for everyone," he added.




					edition.cnn.com
				





> The President's office said he expects to receive the results on Tuesday.
> 
> Many opponents of Bolsonaro were openly hoping for those results to be positive, with the President's son, Carlos Bolsonaro taking to Twitter to condemn "the immense number of people" calling for his father's death.


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 7, 2020)

zahir said:


> Bolsonaro tells fans he had lung screening 'but everything is okay'
> 
> 
> "I've came back from the hospital now, I've done a lung screening, my lung is clean, OK? I went to do a Covid exam a while ago, but everything is okay," he said. "You can't get very close [to me], OK? Recommendation for everyone," he added.
> ...



Who said anything about death? It's just a little flu after all.


----------



## elbows (Jul 7, 2020)

I dont want to go on and on about the lab angle again, but this BBC article, when taken as a whole, is quite a reasonable look at the possibility and related issue:









						Wuhan: City of silence
					

Searching for the origin of the coronavirus in Wuhan, China




					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Its a bit on the long side because they've done that thing where they mix it in with another story that gives a human face to the tragedies of this pandemic.


----------



## zahir (Jul 7, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Bolsonaro has it apparently (again?)











						Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus
					

Far-right president, who has repeatedly trivialized pandemic, announces: ‘It came back positive’




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## 2hats (Jul 7, 2020)

zahir said:


> Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus
> 
> 
> Far-right president, who has repeatedly trivialized pandemic, announces: ‘It came back positive’
> ...








(apologies)


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (Jul 7, 2020)

zahir said:


> Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus
> 
> 
> Far-right president, who has repeatedly trivialized pandemic, announces: ‘It came back positive’
> ...




Wouldn't laugh at someone getting  it, but I can't stop laughing. Hope he dies.


----------



## elbows (Jul 7, 2020)

I like some of the details in that article too.



> Bolsonaro’s diagnosis comes just three days after he had lunch at the home of the US ambassador to Brazil, Todd Chapman, in the capital, Brasília.
> 
> Also present at that Independence Day celebration were several top cabinet members, including the foreign minister, Ernesto Araújo, defence minister, Fernando Azevedo, and the president’s son, Eduardo, a politician who is Steve Bannon’s representative in South America. The men were photographed without face masks.





> The newspaper O Globo said it understood Brazil’s president had started complaining of tiredness on Saturday night, after his lunch with the US ambassador, and continued feeling unwell on Sunday.


----------



## weltweit (Jul 7, 2020)

elbows said:


> I dont want to go on and on about the lab angle again, but this BBC article, when taken as a whole, is quite a reasonable look at the possibility and related issue:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I don't know about the layout of that page, at first I thought I wasn't on a BBC page at all. Overall though I thought it a reasonable article. The origins are still not certain.


----------



## Orang Utan (Jul 7, 2020)

Badly proofread as the question mark has been omitted


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 7, 2020)

I guess they can't say anything else really.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jul 7, 2020)

zahir said:


> Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus
> 
> 
> Far-right president, who has repeatedly trivialized pandemic, announces: ‘It came back positive’
> ...



Oh dear, what a shame, never mind.

Can we have Trump next?


----------



## Aladdin (Jul 7, 2020)

China: Suspected case of bubonic plague reported in Inner Mongolia
					

Eleven people have died of the plague, known as the Black Death in the Middle Ages,  across China since 2009.




					news.sky.com
				





Ffs.   


😳


----------



## T & P (Jul 7, 2020)

zahir said:


> Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro tests positive for coronavirus
> 
> 
> Far-right president, who has repeatedly trivialized pandemic, announces: ‘It came back positive’
> ...


----------



## Yossarian (Jul 7, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> China: Suspected case of bubonic plague reported in Inner Mongolia
> 
> 
> Eleven people have died of the plague, known as the Black Death in the Middle Ages,  across China since 2009.
> ...



Isolated cases of plague aren't that unusual - the US sees an average of 7 cases a year. New Mexico appears to be Plague Central...


----------



## weltweit (Jul 7, 2020)

It has just been reported on the BBC that Trump's USA will formally leave the WHO after a 12 months notice period.


----------



## sheothebudworths (Jul 7, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> Wouldn't laugh at someone getting  it, but I can't stop laughing. Hope he dies.



All joking aside, I hope he dies, too.


----------



## Yossarian (Jul 7, 2020)

The 12 months waiting period sounds like a good idea - by then there'll either be a saner government in place or the COVID States of America will already be sealed off from the rest of the world.


----------



## Aladdin (Jul 7, 2020)

__





						WHO studying evidence on airborne Covid transmission
					





					www.rte.ie
				



An international group of scientists has concluded the virus could spread far beyond two metres.


----------



## Teaboy (Jul 8, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Oh dear, what a shame, never mind.
> 
> Can we have Trump next?



Doubt Trump will get it.  In some things he is incredibly naive and ignorant when it comes to matters of himself he's pretty canny.  He's already mentioned he's a germaphobic and I reckon he's being careful.  He's doesn't mind everyone else dying of it but it sure as hell ain't going to be him.

Bolsonaro and Johnson are just silly twats in comparison.


----------



## maomao (Jul 8, 2020)

If Bolsonaro shakes it off in a week or two it will just prove his point surely? It's only good news if the fucker dies or is crippled by it.


----------



## Teaboy (Jul 8, 2020)

maomao said:


> If Bolsonaro shakes it off in a week or two it will just prove his point surely? It's only good news if the fucker dies or is crippled by it.



Hasn't seemed to have taught Johnson any grace.


----------



## maomao (Jul 8, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Hasn't seemed to have taught Johnson any grace.


Well, exactly. He's been even worse ever since. Why should we expect any different from Bolsonaro?


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 8, 2020)

Critical support for Comrade Corona.


----------



## elbows (Jul 8, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...



WHO exhibited their usual shocking attitude about this issue, right up until they were publicly criticised by many.









						Coronavirus: WHO rethinking how Covid-19 spreads in air
					

The WHO has acknowledged there is evidence that Covid-19 can be spread by airborne particles.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> An open letter from more than 200 scientists had accused the WHO of underestimating the possibility of airborne transmission.
> 
> The WHO has so far said that the virus is transmitted through droplets when people cough or sneeze.
> 
> ...


----------



## Dogsauce (Jul 8, 2020)

Even the very liberal gf (who tells me off for mentioning lampposts and tories etc.) says she hopes Bolsanaro ‘fucking dies’.  I wish I had more faith in poetic justice. Covid is shit at killing cunts.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jul 8, 2020)

elbows said:


> WHO exhibited their usual shocking attitude about this issue, right up until they were publicly criticised by many.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I am very confused by this. South Korean doctors have been talking about this since at least March. I thought it was just common knowledge.


----------



## elbows (Jul 8, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I am very confused by this. South Korean doctors have been talking about this since at least March. I thought it was just common knowledge.



Its the merry-go-round of wilful ingorance and dogma in the orthodoxy, that I went slightly mad ranting about some months back.

There is a bias against accepting inconvenient truths.


----------



## Pickman's model (Jul 8, 2020)

Dogsauce said:


> Even the very liberal gf (who tells me off for mentioning lampposts and tories etc.) says she hopes Bolsanaro ‘fucking dies’.  I wish I had more faith in poetic justice. Covid is shit at killing cunts.


it doesn't need to kill him

just to ravage his body enough so his legs get chopped off. and his fingers. and his lung function reduced to a mere fraction of its previous ability.


----------



## Teaboy (Jul 8, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I am very confused by this. South Korean doctors have been talking about this since at least March. I thought it was just common knowledge.



Yeah me too.  We've been talking about it a lot as well.  It seemed fairly obvious that the fact transmission is much higher indoors was not just down to people spitting at each other and not washing hands.


----------



## Pickman's model (Jul 8, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its the merry-go-round of wilful ingorance and dogma in the orthodoxy, that I went slightly mad ranting about some months back.
> 
> There is a bias against accepting inconvenient truths.


i thought it was obvious after the way so many people caught it from others at parties where they'd been chatting


----------



## elbows (Jul 8, 2020)

And its only a month since the WHO had to backtrack over dangerous and stupid comments about the role of asymptomatic transmission.

WHO not fit for purpose, sadly. Another compromised UN agency, basically, caught between a rock, a hard place, diplomacy and their own dogma.


----------



## Aladdin (Jul 8, 2020)

elbows said:


> WHO exhibited their usual shocking attitude about this issue, right up until they were publicly criticised by many.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Yep. They seem to have wanted to bury their collective heads in the sand. Looks like they felt that acknowledging this would mean massive overhauls in how the virus is dealt with and how much PPE people will need. 

It's looking like all indoor spaces will need to be very well ventilated and people working indoors will require masks. Also all health personel should be wearing N95 masks regardless of their role. 
And there will be greater requirements to sanitize areas where people gather or meet. Even spraying the air. 

Thinking back to China after the initial stages...they were very comprehensively spraying and sanitising indoor and outdoor spaces. Taking no chances.  And then seeing drs and nurses here told initially not to wear masks???
No fucking wonder 1/3 of covid 19 cases here in Ireland were amongst medical / health care staff.


----------



## Yossarian (Jul 8, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its the merry-go-round of wilful ingorance and dogma in the orthodoxy, that I went slightly mad ranting about some months back.
> 
> There is a bias against accepting inconvenient truths.



Yep - even members of the infection control committee have admitted that their recommendations are not based entirely on what they believe, but on the "availability, feasibility, compliance, resource implications" for all member states. Some dissenters spoke to the NYT:



> But the infection prevention and control committee in particular, experts said, is bound by a rigid and overly medicalized view of scientific evidence, is slow and risk-averse in updating its guidance and allows a few conservative voices to shout down dissent.
> 
> “They’ll die defending their view,” said one longstanding W.H.O. consultant, who did not wish to be identified because of her continuing work for the organization.











						239 Experts With One Big Claim: The Coronavirus Is Airborne (Published 2020)
					

The W.H.O. has resisted mounting evidence that viral particles floating indoors are infectious, some scientists say. The agency maintains the research is still inconclusive.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Pickman's model (Jul 8, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> > “They’ll die defending their view,” said one longstanding W.H.O. consultant


more like we'll die because of their views


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jul 8, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> Yep. They seem to have wanted to bury their collective heads in the sand. Looks like they felt that acknowledging this would mean massive overhauls in how the virus is dealt with and how much PPE people will need.
> 
> It's looking like all indoor spaces will need to be very well ventilated and people working indoors will require masks. Also all health personel should be wearing N95 masks regardless of their role.
> And there will be greater requirements to sanitize areas where people gather or meet. Even spraying the air.
> ...


This is why I'm confused. I had complacently assumed that public policy was being driven by a consideration of this means of transmission for months already. 

The head of covid control in SK described how it happens with reference to the mass infection at the Christian rally - it is transmitted as an aerosol that spreads around an enclosed area and slowly builds up over time to potentially infectious levels. In an open area, that aerosol is quickly dispersed. From his description, it takes time to build up, and the more crowded and more enclosed the space, the more likely it is to happen. Hence, probably, so many bus drivers getting it here pre-lockdown, and also, probably, rush-hour trains being a major, perhaps the major, means of transmission in all the big cities that suffered big outbreaks.


----------



## elbows (Jul 8, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> This is why I'm confused. I had complacently assumed that public policy was being driven by a consideration of this means of transmission for months already.
> 
> The head of covid control in SK described how it happens with reference to the mass infection at the Christian rally - it is transmitted as an aerosol that spreads around an enclosed area and slowly builds up over time to potentially infectious levels. In an open area, that aerosol is quickly dispersed. From his description, it takes time to build up, and the more crowded and more enclosed the space, the more likely it is to happen. Hence, probably, so many bus drivers getting it here pre-lockdown, and also, probably, rush-hour trains being a major, perhaps the major, means of transmission in all the big cities that suffered big outbreaks.



They have a different definition for airborne compared to aerosol. Its to do with droplet size. Its not a subject I've studied in too much detail because I consider some of it to be biased hair-splitting.



> Respiratory infections can be transmitted through droplets of different sizes: when the droplet particles are >5-10 μm in diameter they are referred to as respiratory droplets, and when then are <5μm in diameter, they are referred to as droplet nuclei.1 According to current evidence, COVID-19 virus is primarily transmitted between people through respiratory droplets and contact routes.2-7 In an analysis of 75,465 COVID-19 cases in China, airborne transmission was not reported





> Airborne transmission is different from droplet transmission as it refers to the presence of microbes within droplet nuclei, which are generally considered to be particles <5μm in diameter, can remain in the air for long periods of time and be transmitted to others over distances greater than 1 m.



From a March WHO 'scientific briefing' Modes of transmission of virus causing COVID-19: implications for IPC precaution recommendations


----------



## elbows (Jul 8, 2020)

And a somewhat simplified reason behind their resistance to accepting the possibility of significant airborne transmission much earlier, is that they dont want to change the distancing guidance to make it larger than 1 metre.

The politically/economically hard decisions, that we need them most for, is where they are most likely to fail


----------



## The39thStep (Jul 8, 2020)

Albufeiras been invaded by the fucking Dutch.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Jul 8, 2020)

Why the fuck would anyone ever assume that it wasn't transmitted by droplet? Every other cold virus is.


----------



## Shechemite (Jul 8, 2020)

ETA wring thread

ETAA wrong, not ‘wring’, however much autocorrect desires otherwise


----------



## Cid (Jul 9, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> This is why I'm confused. I had complacently assumed that public policy was being driven by a consideration of this means of transmission for months already.
> 
> The head of covid control in SK described how it happens with reference to the mass infection at the Christian rally - it is transmitted as an aerosol that spreads around an enclosed area and slowly builds up over time to potentially infectious levels. In an open area, that aerosol is quickly dispersed. From his description, it takes time to build up, and the more crowded and more enclosed the space, the more likely it is to happen. Hence, probably, so many bus drivers getting it here pre-lockdown, and also, probably, rush-hour trains being a major, perhaps the major, means of transmission in all the big cities that suffered big outbreaks.



Iirc he did also point out that the intensity of that environment; specifically singing etc would be significant in building up sufficient amount of virus. Which is not necessarily analogous to public transport. And, indeed, SK never closed its transport system (though it did introduce masks and handwash very early).  

Not that that should really let anyone off the hook, I mean the possibility was certainly discussed, more a question of degree.


----------



## Cid (Jul 9, 2020)

Sasaferrato said:


> Why the fuck would anyone ever assume that it wasn't transmitted by droplet? Every other cold virus is.



Droplet transmission has always been accepted. It’s airborne/aerosol that wasn’t... though, as elbows pointed out, the distinction has become political rather than scientific to an extent.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Jul 9, 2020)

Cid said:


> Droplet transmission has always been accepted. It’s airborne/aerosol that wasn’t... though, as elbows pointed out, the distinction has become political rather than scientific to an extent.


Quite. The WHO haven't really covered themselves in glory on this.

An aerosol is a small droplet after all.


----------



## 2hats (Jul 9, 2020)

Sasaferrato said:


> Quite. The WHO haven't really covered themselves in glory on this.
> 
> An aerosol is a small droplet after all.


An aerosol is a suspension of very fine droplets where electrostatic and thermal/kinetic turbulent effects dominate over largely ballistic gravitational ones (in a 'spray' of larger sneezed droplets, say, or a cough). The dynamics of each process and resulting 'output' are significantly different and thus so are their capacity to distribute virions (this was highlighted months ago eg here).


----------



## Supine (Jul 9, 2020)

2hats said:


> An aerosol is a suspension of very fine droplets where electrostatic and thermal/kinetic turbulent effects dominate over largely ballistic gravitational ones (in a 'spray' of larger sneezed droplets, say, or a cough). The dynamics of each process and resulting 'output' are significantly different and thus so are their capacity to distribute virions (this was highlighted months ago eg here).



liked because you said - much more clearly - what I was about to type


----------



## 2hats (Jul 9, 2020)

Supine said:


> liked because you said - much more clearly - what I was about to type


Though, on second thoughts, I should have really written "propensity to distribute virions, for a given set of circumstances" instead of simply just "capacity to distribute virions".


----------



## Supine (Jul 9, 2020)

2hats said:


> Though, on second thoughts, I should have really written "propensity to distribute virions, for a given set of circumstances" instead of simply just "capacity to distribute virions".



I was going to say aerosols are lighter so float rather than drop. Think you have the science covered


----------



## 2hats (Jul 9, 2020)

Supine said:


> I was going to say aerosols are lighter so float rather than drop. Think you have the science covered


Not lighter as such. (Prolonged) suspension is down to thermal and electrostatic effects dominating (because droplet dimensions are so small).


----------



## teuchter (Jul 9, 2020)

I wonder if outlawing talking, singing and shouting on public transport would have more benefit than making masks compulsory.


----------



## IC3D (Jul 9, 2020)

teuchter said:


> I wonder if outlawing talking, singing and shouting on public transport would have more benefit than making masks compulsory.


Please add eating I'm sure that's pretty risky


----------



## weltweit (Jul 9, 2020)

Are we supposed to be wearing masks in shops now? 

I didn't get the memo.


----------



## teqniq (Jul 9, 2020)

Utter scumbag:









						Brazil’s President Bolsonaro vetoes COVID-19 aid for Indigenous
					

Veto denies Brazil’s 850,000 Indigenous ‘minimum necessary for survival’ in pandemic, advocacy group says.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## zora (Jul 10, 2020)

A teacher of mine who is Israeli mentioned in our (zoom) class this morning that daily new cases in Israel have risen above 1000. I was really surprised and quite shocked to learn this as I thought Israel had a very good handle on the situation. Just had a look at the stats myself and possible reasons behind it. Looks like cases really have shot up from low-double digit numbers to 1000+. Found an article that stated three main reasons: Large gatherings in indoor spaces had been allowed again, the test-trace-isolate system being too slow (that old chestnut; apparently there are decent numbers of tests, but a lag in results and subsequent notification of contacts), and schools were operating back at full class sizes.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Jul 10, 2020)

Just seen that Australia is going to restrict the number of citizens allowed to return each week to 4000. This is similar to what China did back in March when they introduced the Five-One Policy which heavily restricted how many flights each airline could run into the country per week. China has been slightly increasing the flights in recently, but I think it must be so hard to deal with quarantining an endless and large number of returnees. So sad for the people who will struggle to get back now though.


----------



## Yossarian (Jul 10, 2020)

zora said:


> A teacher of mine who is Israeli mentioned in our (zoom) class this morning that daily new cases in Israel have risen above 1000. I was really surprised and quite shocked to learn this as I thought Israel had a very good handle on the situation. Just had a look at the stats myself and possible reasons behind it. Looks like cases really have shot up from low-double digit numbers to 1000+. Found an article that stated three main reasons: Large gatherings in indoor spaces had been allowed again, the test-trace-isolate system being too slow (that old chestnut; apparently there are decent numbers of tests, but a lag in results and subsequent notification of contacts), and schools were operating back at full class sizes.



Weddings were apparently the main culprit - in mid-June, the government allowed weddings and other religious ceremonies with up to 250 guests, while capping the size of other gatherings at 50, and there were more than 2,000 weddings in 10 days.



> An Israeli official with knowledge of the pandemic response said government researchers have traced the bulk of new infections to a single category of activity: public gatherings, particularly weddings. The official said a huge spike in weddings — some 2,092 between June 15 and June 25 — proved the events to be covid-19 incubators.
> 
> “You have people coming from all over the country,” said the official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the political sensitivity of the matter. “They hug each other; they sing, they dance. That’s the ultimate opportunity to infect people.”





			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middlle_east/why-israel-is-seeing-a-coronavirus-spike-after-initially-crushing-the-outbreak/2020/07/07/dd141158-bfbc-11ea-8908-68a2b9eae9e0_story.html


----------



## zora (Jul 10, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Weddings were apparently the main culprit - in mid-June, the government allowed weddings and other religious ceremonies with up to 250 guests, while capping the size of other gatherings at 50, and there were more than 2,000 weddings in 10 days.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Wow, that's a lot of gatherings with a lot of people. :/


----------



## krtek a houby (Jul 12, 2020)

US bases in Okinawa now in lockdown

Okinawa demands answers from US after 61 marines contract coronavirus


----------



## Teaboy (Jul 13, 2020)

Given that weddings (for a lot of people) are centred around a religious ceremony and marriage in itself is a very important aspect of religious observance I have to say again our various Gods have a strange sense of humour.  Its like when all those people in churches started spreading it to each other.


----------



## 2hats (Jul 13, 2020)

Where Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow leads, Bozo the killer clown may follow...









						'Coronavirus free' Turkmenistan orders mask-wearing to combat 'dust'
					

The reclusive country is one of a handful yet to declare coronavirus cases




					www.thenational.ae


----------



## a_chap (Jul 13, 2020)

30-year-old dies after attending 'Covid party' in Texas
					

Patient said: ‘I think I made a mistake, I thought this was a hoax, but it’s not’, according to health official




					www.theguardian.com
				




 but also


----------



## teqniq (Jul 15, 2020)

Fauci not planning on going anywhere:









						Fauci: ‘Bizarre’ White House Behavior Only Hurts the President
					

The nation’s top public-health expert tells The Atlantic that he isn’t going anywhere, despite the Trump administration’s newest attempts to undercut him.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jul 19, 2020)

Concerns are raising in Spain about a new spike, new cases started to slowly climb 4 weeks ago, when the 7-day average was 335 daily, increasing 2 weeks ago to 372, but as of yesterday it's hit 810. The last 2 days have both hit around 1400 new cases.  

Catalonia is the main region of concerns and restrictions have been reintroduced for 4 million people, whilst France is considering closing the border again. 



> Catalonia’s regional government has asked millions of people to “stay at home” as the area experienced a resurgence in coronavirus cases.
> 
> Around four million people in the Barcelona metropolitan area have been requested to only leave home for essential reasons, with cinemas, theatres and nightclubs also closing.
> 
> ...











						Catalonia asks millions to 'stay at home' amid COVID-19 surge
					

Around four million people in the Barcelona metropolitan area have been requested to only leave home for essential reasons, with cinemas, theatres and nightclubs also closing.




					www.euronews.com


----------



## elbows (Jul 19, 2020)

It would be good to figure out the context of the Catalonia stuff. Because I know some people have been fond of the idea that very large new outbreaks being seen in places around the world now are happening in places that dodged having a massive first wave. But in order to suggest that the Catalonia rise in infections disproves that those are the only places at massive risk now, need to zoom in further to see if the specific areas affected were also badly affected back in March. And I've failed to zoom in far enough to determine that yet. Catalonia as a whole certainly had plenty of deaths, but I suspect it might be unwise not to zoom in quite a bit further than that.

Not sure if I will have time to try to get deeper with this today, if anyone else wants to have a go, I didnt get much further than the regional graphs in one article, and another article which names one of the location of concern (L'Hospitalet de Llobregat).





__





						Coronavirus in Catalonia: daily figures explained in graphs
					

See how outbreak has evolved since February 25, 2020




					www.catalannews.com
				











						Barcelona residents urged to stay home after rise in coronavirus cases
					

The Catalan regional government on Friday urged the nearly four million residents of Spain's second city Barcelona to stay at home unless absolutely necessary or face a potential new lockdown after a rise in coronavirus cases.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 22, 2020)

India coronavirus: 'Our neighbours made us Covid-19 pariahs'
					

As the virus spreads across India, so do fear and stigma attached to the disease.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




This is awful


----------



## Cloo (Jul 22, 2020)

elbows said:


> It would be good to figure out the context of the Catalonia stuff. Because I know some people have been fond of the idea that very large new outbreaks being seen in places around the world now are happening in places that dodged having a massive first wave. But in order to suggest that the Catalonia rise in infections disproves that those are the only places at massive risk now, need to zoom in further to see if the specific areas affected were also badly affected back in March. And I've failed to zoom in far enough to determine that yet. Catalonia as a whole certainly had plenty of deaths, but I suspect it might be unwise not to zoom in quite a bit further than that.
> 
> Not sure if I will have time to try to get deeper with this today, if anyone else wants to have a go, I didnt get much further than the regional graphs in one article, and another article which names one of the location of concern (L'Hospitalet de Llobregat).
> 
> ...


At any rate, this is why I figured it best not to try holidaying abroad this year - things can change very fast.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jul 23, 2020)

Looks like it's starting to take off in South Africa, hearing that they had their highest number of deaths reported yesterday at 572, their previous highest was 216 exactly a week ago, my first thought was perhaps they were catching-up on data.

However, looking at new cases I am not so sure, they have basically gone up 8 fold since the start of June, now averaging over 12,000 new cases daily, and their testing rates are very low, so they will be missing loads of cases.

Apparently it's spreading like wild fire in the over crowded townships, there's no way their health system is going to cope.


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 23, 2020)

Yea I have family in SA. I'm hoping that that jump in the death rate is unrecorded deaths from previous weeks


----------



## teuchter (Jul 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> It would be good to figure out the context of the Catalonia stuff. Because I know some people have been fond of the idea that very large new outbreaks being seen in places around the world now are happening in places that dodged having a massive first wave. But in order to suggest that the Catalonia rise in infections disproves that those are the only places at massive risk now, need to zoom in further to see if the specific areas affected were also badly affected back in March. And I've failed to zoom in far enough to determine that yet. Catalonia as a whole certainly had plenty of deaths, but I suspect it might be unwise not to zoom in quite a bit further than that.
> 
> Not sure if I will have time to try to get deeper with this today, if anyone else wants to have a go, I didnt get much further than the regional graphs in one article, and another article which names one of the location of concern (L'Hospitalet de Llobregat).
> 
> ...



It doesn't look to me like a "very large new outbreak", more like a bump in the road (at this stage). Graphs are for Catalonia as a whole.







__





						Idescat. Statistical information to track the impact of Covid-19
					






					www.idescat.cat


----------



## elbows (Jul 23, 2020)

I cannot explain why at this moment, but the number of positive cases shown in those graphs you found is very different to the stuff I've seen, eg:



			https://dlscitizens.blob.core.windows.net/rtreports/last/CAT/InformeCasosRt_CAT_09.pdf
		


(via Dades actualitzades SARS-CoV-2 )


----------



## teuchter (Jul 23, 2020)

elbows said:


> I cannot explain why at this moment, but the number of positive cases shown in those graphs you found is very different to the stuff I've seen, eg:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yes, they seem to sort of match at the beginning of the period but not at the end.


----------



## elbows (Jul 23, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Yes, they seem to sort of match at the beginning of the period but not at the end.



I stopped looking at the centralised Spanish state data ages ago when they decided to dick around and report no deaths for ages. So I dont know if they are massaging the data there still or what the story is, and for now I'll just look at the data from the regional authorities.


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 23, 2020)

Looks like in South Africa deaths have been significantly under recorded


----------



## nagapie (Jul 23, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Looks like in South Africa deaths have been significantly under recorded


Really? Where did you read that?
My sisters told me infection rates were massively up but death rate still relatively low due to having a young population. But this was a couple of days ago.


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 23, 2020)

nagapie said:


> Really? Where did you read that?
> My sisters told me infection rates were massively up but death rate still relatively low due to having a young population. But this was a couple of days ago.


Al Jazerra is reporting it and they had a huge jump yesterday


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 23, 2020)

nagapie said:


> Really? Where did you read that?
> My sisters told me infection rates were massively up but death rate still relatively low due to having a young population. But this was a couple of days ago.











						South Africa records 60% rise in excess deaths, suggesting high Covid-19 toll
					

With more than 10,000 cases reported daily, nation becomes worst-hit country in Africa




					www.google.com


----------



## William of Walworth (Jul 23, 2020)

Detailed report in yesterday's Guardian about India, from their South Asia correspondent ..... (I think she's good, btw).



			
				Guardian headline said:
			
		

> *Almost a quarter of Delhi may have had coronavirus, finds study*
> *Random sample of 20,000 residents finds 23.4% have antibodies, equating to more than 6.5m people*






			
				Hannah Ellis-Petersen said:
			
		

> Almost a quarter of Delhi’s 28 million residents may have developed coronavirus antibodies, making it one of the worst-affected capital cities in the world, according to research.
> A random sample of 20,000 residents by India’s National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) found 23.4% had antibodies to the virus. It appears that the majority were asymptomatic.
> The coronavirus crisis hit Delhi hard last month, pushing the city’s healthcare system to the brink of collapse, and many died after hospitals ran out of beds and ventilators. Yet the rate of exposure found in the NCDC study is far higher than the city’s officially reported 123,747 cases, suggesting the spread of coronavirus in India may be far greater than the official statistics show.


Whole article is not just about Delhi, btw ....... plenty of downheartening stuff, be warned ...... 

(ETA to add actual link!  )


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jul 24, 2020)

And, now France is seeing an increase in cases, a 66% increase in 3 weeks.   



> France has declared a significant rise in coronavirus cases - as researchers have said traces of COVID-19 are once again being found in Paris's sewage system. The country's health ministry reported 1,062 cases on Thursday - nearly double the 584 seen on Tuesday.
> 
> It marked the second day in a row that the country had seen a sizeable rise compared to earlier in the week, after a series of localised flare-ups prompted officials to make mask-wearing compulsory in enclosed public spaces.
> 
> The health ministry said there had been a 66% increase in cases over three weeks, and that a lag between people becoming infected and displaying symptoms meant the virus had likely been circulating "for several weeks already".











						Coronavirus: France sees 'significant' surge in cases as COVID-19 traces found in Paris sewage system
					

The study of wastewater could act as an early indicator of coronavirus infections, even before people are diagnosed.




					news.sky.com


----------



## Yossarian (Jul 24, 2020)

Hong Kong managed to keep case numbers very low for six months with measures including almost universal mask-wearing - which people adopted voluntarily instead of being ordered to by their shitty government - and a border closure with China that was only introduced after medical workers went on strike. There were 0 new cases reported on many days in April, May, and June, but there's been a huge surge in cases over the last few weeks and the death toll has more than doubled, though it's still only 16.

This is apparently due to the government exempting too many people from the mandatory 14-day quarantine for new arrivals, including company directors, maybe somebody should have told them that rich people can also become infected.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jul 24, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Hong Kong managed to keep case numbers very low for six months with measures including almost universal mask-wearing - which people adopted voluntarily instead of being ordered to by their shitty government - and a border closure with China that was only introduced after medical workers went on strike. There were 0 new cases reported on many days in April, May, and June, but there's been a huge surge in cases over the last few weeks and the death toll has more than doubled, though it's still only 16.
> 
> This is apparently due to the government exempting too many people from the mandatory 14-day quarantine for new arrivals, including company directors, maybe somebody should have told them that rich people can also become infected.



That's not good, the average daily figure for new cases on 1st July was 8, now it's 85. 









						Hong Kong COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Hong Kong Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jul 25, 2020)

Parts of Australia are starting to see a rapid rise in numbers. Luckily most of them have been traced.  Victoria is the highest , followed by New South Wales.

In Qld we've only had a couple of new cases from a cargo ship ( which didn't dock) and a service man returning from overseas.  

Our labour premiere took a lot of shit for refusing to open our boarders but turns out she was right. Atm you can't enter if you've been in Victoria or in a list of NSW hot spots which is growing by the day. 

If you live in Qld and want to return then you have to pay for two weeks, guarded hotel quarantine.

If you try and sneak in its something like a $4000 fine or 6 months in jail. Its changing on an hourly basis.









						Coronavirus (COVID-19) case numbers and statistics
					

This page provides updates about the current situation, latest case numbers and related information. It is updated every day by 9 pm AEST and reflects the previous 24 hours.




					www.health.gov.au
				












						'A wicked enemy': how Australia's coronavirus success story unravelled
					

Weeks ago, Australia was the envy of the world. Now it has more than 3,000 active coronavirus cases and Melbourne is in lockdown. What went wrong?




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 25, 2020)

Ugh worldometers is saying there's 645k people dead from this virus. It's going to be a million in a few weeks isnt it?


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 25, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> Hong Kong managed to keep case numbers very low for six months with measures including almost universal mask-wearing - which people adopted voluntarily instead of being ordered to by their shitty government - and a border closure with China that was only introduced after medical workers went on strike. There were 0 new cases reported on many days in April, May, and June, but there's been a huge surge in cases over the last few weeks and the death toll has more than doubled, though it's still only 16.
> 
> This is apparently due to the government exempting too many people from the mandatory 14-day quarantine for new arrivals, including company directors, maybe somebody should have told them that rich people can also become infected.



The same thing happened in South America I think


----------



## planetgeli (Jul 25, 2020)

Not going very well in Bolivia. This Guardian story is 3 days old. Elections cancelled (again) until October.









						Bolivia elections in doubt as police find bodies of hundreds of Covid-19 victims
					

Unit recovers 420 bodies across La Paz and Santa Cruz, with most believed to have had virus




					www.theguardian.com
				




Also

Desperate Bolivians seek out toxic bleach falsely touted as Covid-19 cure


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 25, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Not going very well in Bolivia. This Guardian story is 3 days old. Elections cancelled (again) until October.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I read the bleach thing a while ago. I couldn't finish the article


----------



## little_legs (Jul 27, 2020)

Meanwhile in Australia


----------



## two sheds (Jul 27, 2020)

"It is my right, as a living woman, to do whatever I want". Will look forward to seeing her legal claim form.


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Jul 27, 2020)

I fucking miss Bunnings    

I don't get why people are so upset about this mask business. And I think shops should absolutely be allowed to say "no mask - no entry"

Are shops considered private property? Or are they "public places" ?


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Jul 27, 2020)

two sheds said:


> "It is my right, as a living woman, to do whatever I want". Will look forward to seeing her legal claim form.


That's an interesting point. Does anyone, living or dead, have the right to do whatever they want?


----------



## two sheds (Jul 27, 2020)

If you're a Freeman of the Land yes certainly. And a living woman has more rights than a dead one I think.


----------



## Monkeygrinder's Organ (Jul 27, 2020)

two sheds said:


> If you're a Freeman of the Land yes certainly. And a living woman has more rights than a dead one I think.



Can a woman be a freeman on the land?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jul 27, 2020)

Mrs Miggins said:


> I fucking miss Bunnings
> 
> I don't get why people are so upset about this mask business. And I think shops should absolutely be allowed to say "no mask - no entry"
> 
> Are shops considered private property? Or are they "public places" ?



Private property.


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Jul 27, 2020)

Monkeygrinder's Organ said:


> Can a woman be a freeman on the land?


I imagine one "freeman" is one of those words that is considered to cover everyone despite being obviously gendered.


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Jul 27, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Private property.


Then they really can tell people no mask, no entry can't they?


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jul 27, 2020)

Some people have way too much time on their hands...


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jul 27, 2020)

Mrs Miggins said:


> Then they really can tell people no mask, no entry can't they?



Yep.


----------



## two sheds (Jul 27, 2020)

Yes I think I'd have adopted the "please put a mask on or leave now" approach.


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Jul 27, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Yes I think I'd have adopted the "please put a mask on or leave now" approach.


What are staff supposed to do though when confronted with a shouty twat who is refusing because "rights" or some other shit?


----------



## two sheds (Jul 27, 2020)

Refer to manager, not sure what they should do then though.


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Jul 27, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Refer to manager, not sure what they should do then though.


...and then they will stand there having the argument with them. It's such a waste of everyone's time. I mean they are not suddenly going to go "you know what? You're right. I should wear a mask. Thank you"
They are going to stand there and argue until they are blue in the face.
I hate these fucking people.


----------



## two sheds (Jul 27, 2020)

Yep entitled twats with no consideration for people just trying to get through the day doing their job


----------



## kabbes (Jul 27, 2020)

You’d have thought by now the shops would have just printed out their own leaflets explaining the key points that allow them to refuse entry.  Hand the punter the leaflet, ask them to leave and then explain that if they will not leave, the store will <insert whatever the store has decided — security, cops, private prosecution, etc>.  If the store _hasn’t_ decided to do any of these things when defied, there’s no point in stringing it out into a long conversation either.  Either the hammer is coming down or it isn’t.


----------



## LDC (Jul 27, 2020)

little_legs said:


> Meanwhile in Australia




What a total fucking horrible prick. I fucking hate humanity sometimes.


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Jul 27, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> What a total fucking horrible prick. I fucking hate humanity sometimes.


I think there are people out there who are just angry in general and want to have a go at someone - anyone - about something. This gives them an opportunity to do that.

ETA: and shouting at shop staff - well they know they are shouting at someone who is not in a position to either fight back verbally or just fucking hit them.


----------



## LDC (Jul 27, 2020)

Mrs Miggins said:


> I think there are people out there who are just angry in general and want to have a go at someone - anyone - about something. This gives them an opportunity to do that.
> 
> ETA: and shouting at shop staff - well they know they are shouting at someone who is not in a position to either fight back verbally or just fucking hit them.



Just posted something on another thread about someone I know that seems to have been tipped over by this as well, they've fully plunged into conspiracy theory stuff around the pandemic. Posting videos to Youtube etc. Think for some people it's been the straw that broke their fragile grip on being sensible.


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Jul 27, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Just posted something on another thread about someone I know that seems to have been tipped over by this as well, they've fully plunged into conspiracy theory stuff around the pandemic. Posting videos to Youtube etc. Think for some people it's been the straw that broke their fragile grip on being sensible.


Being kind.....times are very stressful at the moment and I think many people, myself included, thought this would all blow over in a couple of months. Now it appears it's not going away for a very, very long time, I think it's tipping some people over the edge.


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 27, 2020)

Yes, I somewhat naively hoped that it would be under control if most people stayed at home for a few months


----------



## Boudicca (Jul 27, 2020)

Mrs Miggins said:


> I think there are people out there who are just angry in general and want to have a go at someone - anyone - about something. This gives them an opportunity to do that.
> 
> ETA: and shouting at shop staff - well they know they are shouting at someone who is not in a position to either fight back verbally or just fucking hit them.


I've found myself being extra nice to shop staff, it's the least they deserve.  I'm grateful that they are there and I can buy food.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Jul 27, 2020)

Boudicca said:


> I've found myself being extra nice to shop staff, it's the least they deserve.  I'm grateful that they are there and I can buy food.


Me too - I'm lucky that I can work at home and avoid people, but they can't so they absolutely deserve the utmost respect.


----------



## Orang Utan (Jul 27, 2020)

Had to deal with a similar knobber today, let’s call him Angry Santa. He was taking off his mask and angrily muttering as I signposted him to the PC he had booked. I asked him to put his mask back on and he started banging on about government lies and how it’s not that serious blah blah blah. I just apologised for him being mildly inconvenienced and that if he didn’t like it he could leave. He kept on muttering but did it more quietly, the cowardly rotter.


----------



## dessiato (Jul 28, 2020)




----------



## mx wcfc (Jul 28, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> Me too - I'm lucky that I can work at home and avoid people, but they can't so they absolutely deserve the utmost respect.


I went to my local shop yesterday.  5 customers, only 3 of us wearing masks.  I felt like kicking off about it, but it just wasn't worth it. The staff didn't seem bothered - I guess they aren't paid enough to get into a fight, so I wasn't going to start one.  As you say though, respect to them.


----------



## Dogsauce (Jul 29, 2020)

Nightclubs have been shut down in Catalonia/Barcelona due to the new rise in cases. What the fuck were they doing being open at the moment anyway? Fucking idiots.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jul 29, 2020)

dessiato said:


> View attachment 224096


6,000 new cases in Catalunya last week. 18 new hospitalisations, 1 new icu patient,  0 new deaths all week. 

It's hard to say this without sounding like Donald trump but new cases are not the only relevant metric. Talk of second waves is premature, and coming from this UK govt it is absurd. It's not just Spain. Various countries in Europe have experienced (non-exponential) upticks in new cases without upticks in deaths, remaining at levels way below current UK deaths. E.g. if you look at Belgium, Switzerland, Austria.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jul 29, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> 6,000 new cases in Catalunya last week. 18 new hospitalisations, 1 new icu patient,  0 new deaths all week.



Yes, but hospitalisations tend to come around 2 weeks after testing positive, and deaths around 4 to 6+ weeks later.

I am sure there'll be an element of more targeted testing picking-up on more minor cases, and I hope that accounts for a high percentage of them, but too early to tell ATM.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jul 29, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Yes, but hospitalisations tend to come around 2 weeks after testing positive, and deaths around 4 to 6+ weeks later.
> 
> I am sure there'll be an element of more targeted testing picking-up on more minor cases, and I hope that accounts for a high percentage of them, but too early to tell ATM.


Fair enough. So updating that, a new set of 18 deaths were reported on 27 July following many days of no reports (the deaths no doubt spread over that time). In the last few weeks, there have been more than 20,000 new cases, and looking at the graphs on this link, at an equivalent time at the start of the pandemic wrt captured cases, by the point of reaching 20,000 new cases - basically the end of March - there were already hundreds of deaths per day. They do appear to have got this fresh spike under control now, and with only a few serious cases. 

These new spikes do all appear to be following similar patterns - linear rather than exponential growth, and under control relatively swiftly, and with only minimal effect when measured in terms of deaths (of course, some people may also be severely ill but not dying). Of course, it matters hugely the demographic of who is catching it, and the most vulnerable weren't the first to catch it first time around either. 

Without the new testing regimes, none of this in Catalunya would even have been noticed yet, but with the new regimes, it's already being brought under control. One or two thousand new cases per day can mean something radically different now from what those kinds of figures meant at the start.


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 29, 2020)

I also think that as hospitals have got better at treating covid the death rate has reduced tbh .


----------



## zahir (Jul 29, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I also think that as hospitals have got better at treating covid the death rate has reduced tbh .



I wonder if it’s more to do with hospitals and care homes getting basic infection controls in place and fewer vulnerable people being exposed to it.


----------



## Supine (Jul 29, 2020)

I've seen graphs showing ever improving hospital results as the profession has learnt how to deal with patients. Can't remember where but well done NHS.


----------



## elbows (Jul 29, 2020)

August is shaping up to be a bit like February for me in the sense that it could be a month where we learn enough to end up with a better sense of what will happen after that month is done. February was all about international spread, this time its more about the resurgence potential.

I think it was important for authorities around the northern hemisphere to see how much wiggle room to relax things they really had in the first pandemic summer. The absolute best-case scenario already looks to have been a poor fit for reality, so now there are nervous authorities all over the place. Its a mix of immediate concerns, concerns for what it means for later in the year, and concerning messages that are made quite deliberately to try to get the public to take the threat seriously as an ongoing thing.

Belgium and Germany are some of the other countries in Europe that are either changing their rules in response, or are warning that they will have to soon if things dont improve.

On a couple of occasions in the past I described lockdown as an emergency handbrake, as something that needed to be done when we were too slow and didnt do all the other things in an effective way. Unfortunately this does not mean that I think it unlikely we will ever need that last resort again. Partly because its a numbers game and the decent testing & contract-tracing approach cannot scale up to the number of cases that could happen in a large wave, it has to be utilised before then to keep the numbers below a certain threshold, otherwise we'll have to resort to the cruder measures again.

There should have been some improvements to treatment and survival rates but I dont know quite how significant they are, I will wait till we have experienced a winter before attempting to properly judge this.


----------



## springy (Jul 29, 2020)

Do you think there will be second lockdown in some countries? The economies can’t handle a second lockdown, but cases are raising all over the world and in my opinion people don’t follow anymore the rules that the governments have implemented…and moreover: What will happen during winter?? I can imagine that the situation will get worse before it gets better – as Trump said ;-) America has already lost its “war” against Covid…each day there are +60.000 and more officially cases – who knows how many people are really infected…but I also think that third world countries/emerging countries such as India and Brazil will be even more affected by the virus than the States if a vaccination won’t be found soon. When would you say will the situation get better around the world? I’m afraid that this now is just the beginning…


----------



## elbows (Jul 29, 2020)

I dont do those sorts of predictions unless I think something is pretty much inevitable. And the term lockdown is very broad. So at the moment I would only go so far as to say that it would be unwise to rule out the possibility of second lockdowns anywhere.


----------



## elbows (Jul 29, 2020)

zahir said:


> I wonder if it’s more to do with hospitals and care homes getting basic infection controls in place and fewer vulnerable people being exposed to it.



I found this chart from Germany to be quite a good indicator of change to the age groups most affected:





__





						Loading…
					





					www.rki.de


----------



## springy (Jul 29, 2020)

true, but isn’t there a “light” lockdown/ curfew somewhere happening? I don’t remember anymore where exactly …in Belgium? Denmark? … like people are not allowed to go on the streets at night…can someone tell me why? Are people accepting the rules less during night than during day? This is kind of weird to me…


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 29, 2020)

.


----------



## elbows (Jul 29, 2020)

springy said:


> true, but isn’t there a “light” lockdown/ curfew somewhere happening? I don’t remember anymore where exactly …in Belgium? Denmark? … like people are not allowed to go on the streets at night…can someone tell me why? Are people accepting the rules less during night than during day? This is kind of weird to me…



Antwerp in Belgium. 11PM. Maybe not enforced yet as I dont think they've got all the legislation in place. Probably an attempt to avoid completely shutting bars etc, whilst still somewhat mitigating against late night drunken virus spread. I dont have all the epidemiological data that may have formed the basis of their decision.


----------



## gaijingirl (Jul 29, 2020)

springy said:


> true, but isn’t there a “light” lockdown/ curfew somewhere happening? I don’t remember anymore where exactly …in Belgium? Denmark? … like people are not allowed to go on the streets at night…can someone tell me why? Are people accepting the rules less during night than during day? This is kind of weird to me…



Also Quiberon in Brittany.


----------



## elbows (Jul 29, 2020)




----------



## frogwoman (Jul 29, 2020)

My work colleague in Bulgaria was saying something about the stats showing an increase being faked and that hospitals were given £500 per covid patient so had a reason to inflate the number. I'd almost certainly regard this as a conspiracy theory tbh but I have no idea what is going on there given high levels of corruption in the country, but it seems unlikely


----------



## Teaboy (Jul 29, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> My work colleague in Bulgaria was saying something about the stats showing an increase being faked and that hospitals were given £500 per covid patient so had a reason to inflate the number. I'd almost certainly regard this as a conspiracy theory tbh but I have no idea what is going on there given high levels of corruption in the country, but it seems unlikely



There is no benefit to any government in the world to artificially inflate their numbers, quite the opposite in fact.  Its just more total and utter bollocks from people who are unable to come to terms with a new reality.


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 29, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> There is no benefit to any government in the world to artificially inflate their numbers, quite the opposite in fact.  Its just more total and utter bollocks from people who are unable to come to terms with a new reality.



That's what I thought. Has there been a documented case of a hospital doing this anywhere in the world?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jul 29, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I also think that as hospitals have got better at treating covid the death rate has reduced tbh .


There is that as well, but in the case of Catalunya, there have been very few new hospital admissions during this recent spike. The new cases have mostly been discovered by community testing of various kinds rather than testing of sick people turning up at casualty, which is how new cases were mostly discovered at the start. It's the same story here, with a large majority of new cases now coming from Pillar 2 (routine testing, test and trace, mail-out tests, etc) rather than Pillar 1 (NHS testing in hospitals). Pillar 1 totally missed the Leicester hotspot.


----------



## Teaboy (Jul 29, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> That's what I thought. Has there been a documented case of a hospital doing this anywhere in the world?



I suppose if you really wanted to stretch it you could make an argument that some hospitals might want to inflate the figure if they feel they are not getting enough support from government.  This would only be out of desperation though and who would the £500 come from?

Its bollocks basically.


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 29, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I suppose if you really wanted to stretch it you could make an argument that some hospitals might want to inflate the figure if they feel they are not getting enough support from government.  This would only be out of desperation though and who would the £500 come from?
> 
> Its bollocks basically.



Yeah I know. I work with her and was clinging onto a vague hope that she's not a total fuckwit


----------



## elbows (Jul 29, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> There is that as well, but in the case of Catalunya, there have been very few new hospital admissions during this recent spike. The new cases have mostly been discovered by community testing of various kinds rather than testing of sick people turning up at casualty, which is how new cases were mostly discovered at the start. It's the same story here, with a large majority of new cases now coming from Pillar 2 (routine testing, test and trace, mail-out tests, etc) rather than Pillar 1 (NHS testing in hospitals). Pillar 1 totally missed the Leicester hotspot.



Yes I would not expect that the current low numbers of deaths have very much to do with improved treatment, at least not not compared to the other issues of scale with the current picture compared to the initial peak.

The figures for number of cases we get these days are quite hard to compare to the past, because the past involved such a low percentage of cases being tested at all. They give us a picture that was missing the first time, and the opportunity to avoid letting things spiral. Which does involve the challenge of getting enough people to take it seriously enough when data showing an increasing number of cases is not accompanied by scary numbers of deaths.


----------



## elbows (Jul 29, 2020)

Which is another reason I should try to pay attention to Germany, because their figures are somewhat more comparable with their past ones. Because they did better with testing the first time around, and for example spotted plenty of holiday-related infections in younger people the first time round. I shouldnt overstate this though, there have still been limits to their system in the past and I would assume their testing capacity and protocols have been improved further since the first peak.


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 29, 2020)

Is the low number of deaths anything to do with people seeking treatment earlier?


----------



## elbows (Jul 29, 2020)

Honestly I think its mostly because there are vastly less people catching it at the moment, and far less hospital and care home outbreaks.

My local hospital is one of the only graphs I've seen for months that actually has a more recent death spike, and that was mostly a story of a hospital outbreak where the people involved were quite vulnerable to death because they were already ill.


----------



## elbows (Jul 29, 2020)

I suppose if I'm going to say that I should have posted the graph, even though this isnt the best thread for it, it came up in conversation so...



The hospital outbreak which was spotted and dealt with in June created a death situation that was quite comparable with the initial peak wave of death, although shorter. And since they got a handle on it deaths have fallen to a level not managed previously. However since I was always anticipating that hospital infections would be responsible for a big chunk of the deaths in this pandemic, I expect I am biased towards thinking things are all signs of this side of the story.


----------



## Dogsauce (Jul 29, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Is the low number of deaths anything to do with people seeking treatment earlier?



it may be down to who is getting it, and also that the virus may have worked through a lot of the vulnerable population, at least in the UK with the care home fuckup.


----------



## zahir (Jul 29, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Is the low number of deaths anything to do with people seeking treatment earlier?



I’d be sceptical about this. I think most people who seek treatment will be doing so after things take a bad turn ten days to two weeks into the illness. Is anyone getting any treatment to speak of in advance of this? Unless there’s some more proactive treatment going on outside the UK.


----------



## Supine (Jul 29, 2020)

Younger people are getting infected so recover better. It's the older people they are in contact with who should worry most.


----------



## CNT36 (Jul 29, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Is the low number of deaths anything to do with people seeking treatment earlier?


I think what you mentioned above is significant. Better treatment, understanding and care than very early on. Proning, better use of ventilators and some effective medications for example.


----------



## CNT36 (Jul 29, 2020)

Supine said:


> Younger people are getting infected so recover better. It's the older people they are in contact with who should worry most.


Quite likely but worth mentioning there have been some concerns about lungs being damaged in young and even asymptomatic cases for long periods after the virus is cleared.


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 29, 2020)

I hope not  I'm mostly fine and my symptoms were pretty mild but I don't feel like my lungs are 100% back to normal tbh. Pretty anxious about flu season if I'm honest.


----------



## Doodler (Jul 29, 2020)

Mrs Miggins said:


> What are staff supposed to do though when confronted with a shouty twat who is refusing because "rights" or some other shit?



Many staff won't know what to do because they're usually limited to refusing to serve someone who's being an arsehole or who's too young to buy certain goods. They have little or no authority, the way they're managed will remind them of that fact as a matter of course, and company policies discourage shop workers from confronting shoplifters and the like. It's a job for doormen and security guards.


----------



## CNT36 (Jul 29, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I hope not  I'm mostly fine and my symptoms were pretty mild but I don't feel like my lungs are 100% back to normal tbh. Pretty anxious about flu season if I'm honest.


Hopefully they'll be better soon. I don't know how common it is tbh just worry about complacency in lower risk groups.


----------



## zahir (Jul 29, 2020)

CNT36 said:


> Quite likely but worth mentioning there have been some concerns about lungs being damaged in young and even asymptomatic cases for long periods after the virus is cleared.



Do you see damage to the lungs as something that may get better with time? I had a chest x-ray this morning and so I’m waiting to see what it shows.


----------



## Supine (Jul 29, 2020)

Peer reviewed evidence that proves covid is transmitted by air. Aerosols can infect cells. 









						Aerosol and surface contamination of SARS-CoV-2 observed in quarantine and isolation care - Scientific Reports
					

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) originated in Wuhan, China in late 2019, and its resulting coronavirus disease, COVID-19, was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020. The rapid global spread of COVID-19 represents perhaps the...




					www.nature.com


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jul 30, 2020)

zahir said:


> Do you see damage to the lungs as something that may get better with time? I had a chest x-ray this morning and so I’m waiting to see what it shows.


This study is smoking-related but it suggests that healthy cells can grow from lung stem cells to replace damaged ones. 

New lung cells may replace tobacco-damaged cells after people stop smoking

There's also evidence that people's lungs can regenerate after damage from ARDS, which is one of the things Covid causes. As here:

Lung regeneration mechanism discovered



> there are examples in humans that point to the existence of a robust system for lung regeneration. "Some survivors of acute respiratory distress syndrome, or ARDS, for example, are able to recover near-normal lung function following significant destruction of lung tissue."
> 
> Mice appear to share this capacity. Mice infected with the H1N1 influenza virus show progressive inflammation in the lung followed by outright loss of important lung cell types. Yet over several weeks, the lungs recover, revealing no signs of the previous lung injury.


----------



## CNT36 (Jul 30, 2020)

zahir said:


> Do you see damage to the lungs as something that may get better with time? I had a chest x-ray this morning and so I’m waiting to see what it shows.


I'm not an expert but most likely it can however but as with some flu sometimes it may not. The problem is no one really knows the long term consequences as we haven't had that time.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jul 30, 2020)

My experience of covid in qld is so different from your experience in the uk, or else where really. We're just about to close the border with nsw again as their numbers are rising,  and no one's been getting in from Victoria because they're numbers are high.

This happened yesterday and practically everyone in qld wants to lynch them! I know they did the wrong thing and are selfish idiots but it's just bringing out the absolute worst in people.









						CHARGES LAID: Infected group facing FIVE years jail over COVID scandal
					

The actions of the trio sparked a criminal investigation.




					7news.com.au
				




Things have become really state versus state, the country is divided, suspicious and hateful.









						King McGowan breaks the internet
					

Mark McGowan is trending nationwide as Twitter users flood the platform with an outpouring of support for the WA Premier over his hard border stance.




					www.perthnow.com.au
				




It just feels very surreal because so far in qld there's been 6 deaths. I know that covid is awful and we want to stop it spreading ( me more than most because boy 3 is immunocompromised) but that seems so unrealistic it's almost magical thinking. I'm not sure how to describe it really but there's a real disconnect.  What's that word beginning with D that means a certain type of fucked up thinking?

Then today this weird thing happened. One of my sons called me from work to let me know that his work colleagues girlfriend, who is also the covid testing nurse at the local drive through testing station, had just tested positive.

She'd apparently had the test on Friday and instead of going into self quarantine to await the result had spent the weekend with the boyfriend. He'd been going into work ( where my son and by coincidence my colleagues son also works)

So cue the boyfriend going off to get tested, everyone getting sent home to wait on the results of the boyfriends test,  plus the workplace shutting and a team of deep cleaners ready to go. So many people impacted and a real eye opener when you start to think about all the places you've been..( I've got the track and trace on my phone thank goodness)

My colleague told our boss and we were sent off to have the test, and as we work with very vulnerable people the safety plan was about to be initiated when...

A few hours later the girlfriend admitted that she'd lied about it, and didn't have covid.. all because they'd had a row!

It's just very weird but not in the same way you're experiencing it


----------



## weltweit (Jul 30, 2020)

What a stupid thing to lie about.


----------



## Mrs Miggins (Jul 30, 2020)

Indeed!


----------



## William of Walworth (Jul 30, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> What's that word beginning with D that means a certain type of fucked up thinking?



Disfunctional??

Or 'dozy'


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jul 30, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> Disfunctional??
> 
> Or 'dozy'



Good try but no  tbh I can even think of what I was trying to think of now disconesense or something, but that's not even a word...


----------



## kabbes (Jul 30, 2020)

Delusional


----------



## 8ball (Jul 30, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Good try but no  tbh I can even think of what I was trying to think of now disconesense or something, but that's not even a word...



Dissonance?


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jul 30, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Delusional



Kabbes!  No, but it's a word that'd be used by a psych to say that someone has diswhatever of thought.


----------



## two sheds (Jul 30, 2020)

discombobulated


----------



## 8ball (Jul 30, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Kabbes!  No, but it's a word that'd be used by a psych to say that someone has diswhatever of thought.



Dissociation?


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jul 30, 2020)

8ball said:


> Dissonance?



Yes! Cognitive dissonance. Thank you


----------



## Yossarian (Jul 30, 2020)

Disjointed?


----------



## 8ball (Jul 30, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Yes! Cognitive dissonance. Thank you



Do I get a prize?


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jul 30, 2020)

Cognitive dissonance is that uncomfortable feeling you get when you try to maintain two or more inconsistent beliefs at the same time or when you believe one thing but act in a contradictory way.

This is what I'm seeing. It's getting weird. People are getting weird.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jul 30, 2020)

8ball said:


> Do I get a prize?



Oh go on then... It's in the post


----------



## two sheds (Jul 30, 2020)

Everybody has won, and all must have prizes


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jul 30, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Everybody has won, and all must have prizes



Okay then, but only cos discombobulated is one of my favorite words  sticks of rock with qld written through the middle in the post for everyone.


----------



## a_chap (Jul 30, 2020)




----------



## 8ball (Jul 30, 2020)

a_chap said:


>




The first post is pretty weird tbf.


----------



## teqniq (Jul 30, 2020)

How Jared Kushner’s Secret Testing Plan “Went Poof Into Thin Air”
					

This spring, a team working under the president’s son-in-law produced a plan for an aggressive, coordinated national COVID-19 response that could have brought the pandemic under control. So why did the White House spike it in favor of a shambolic 50-state response?




					www.vanityfair.com
				




This is absolutely damning:


----------



## scifisam (Jul 30, 2020)

8ball said:


> The first post is pretty weird tbf.



Why?


----------



## frogwoman (Jul 30, 2020)

I thought the suburban dream thing was satire tbh


----------



## William of Walworth (Jul 30, 2020)

Not too much about India and the pandemic in this thread, mostly because there's very little in the (Western) media generally about how the pandemic is happening in India  

But this ultra-disturbing piece (well written though) about how badly the Indian poor have been treated, is disgusting 




			
				Guardian headline said:
			
		

> *Modi's Covid-19 policies make clear that in India some lives matter more than others*
> Draconian government responses to the pandemic have merely served to widen India’s class, caste, gender and religious divides



Section of the article (by Jayati Ghosh) :
=======================================
The official attitude to the estimated 100 million or more rural-urban migrants who build India’s towns and cities and provide their services was even more telling.
Early into the lockdown, special repatriation flights were arranged for Indians stranded abroad. 
But internal migrants got no such relief for two months; they were deprived of their right to livelihood but only – and rarely – received the most paltry compensation.
When, in desperation, they travelled on handcarts, containers and cement mixers or simply walked hundreds of kilometres to get home, they faced beatings, detention, being sprayed with disinfectant, even being killed on rail tracks where they slept thinking that no trains were allowed.
The arbitrary dusk-to-dawn nationwide curfews (with no public health rationale) forced them to walk in the blazing heat.
When special train services for such migrants were finally started, nearly two months into lockdown, impoverished workers had to congregate in stations in large numbers to get tickets, expose themselves to infection and then pay full fares.
Conditions on these trains were often so appalling, with delayed journeys in intense heat without food and water provision, that in just 10 days in May, 80 people died on board.
=======================================


----------



## William of Walworth (Jul 31, 2020)

I was struggling to decide about which thread to post this link, as the article is a right mixture of insane conspiracy theories plus associated fake 'cures',  , but this (from last Sunday's Observer) is regionally specific :

Tsunami of fake news hurts Latin America's effort to fight coronavirus

Extracts :



			
				Tom Phillips and others said:
			
		

> Many of the false claims include miracle Covid-19 cures including Peruvian sea water, Venezuelan lemongrass and elderberry tea and supernatural seeds being hawked by one Brazilian televangelist.
> 
> In Bolivia, politicians have been promoting the use of a toxic bleaching agent as a potential cure – with panicked residents in the hard-hit city of Cochabamba reportedly lining up to buy the poisonous product.





> The misguided belief that 5G telecom towers spread the coronavirus via radio waves prompted villagers in Huancavelica in the Peruvian Andes to detain eight telecoms engineers for more than a day. Ginger consumption in Peru has rocketed and exports nearly tripled because of the belief it can treat or cure Covid-19. At least 10 cases of chlorine dioxide poisoning have been reported in Bolivia in recent days.
> 
> In Chiapas – where WhatsApp rumours have spread claiming government health workers were deliberately spraying indigenous communities with the coronavirus – there has been violence. An angry mob reportedly ransacked the community hospital in the municipality of Los Rosas in early June before torching an ambulance, the town hall and the mayor’s home.



Possibly (?) not quite as bad as conditions in India, but the same emoticons apply :


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 1, 2020)

I was just reading that Peru was investigating around 27 thousand deaths that they suspected were due to covid but had been missed as the people weren't given a test. If confirmed this would mean that they had around 46 thousand deaths due to covid or 0.14% of the population


----------



## weltweit (Aug 1, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I was just reading that Peru was investigating around 27 thousand deaths that they suspected were due to covid but had been missed as the people weren't given a test. If confirmed this would mean that they had around 46 thousand deaths due to covid or 0.14% of the population


Sounds grim. Do you know how good the Peruvian health service is frogwoman?


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 1, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Sounds grim. Do you know how good the Peruvian health service is frogwoman?



I think they are really struggling due to the pandemic 









						Peru probes whether 27,253 coronavirus deaths uncounted
					

Peruvian authorities and the Pan American Health Organization are investigating whether the country failed to count 27,253 deaths caused by the novel coronavirus, a figure that could more than double the country's official death toll from COVID-19.  Peru already has one of the world's highest...




					uk.news.yahoo.com


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 1, 2020)

‘They killed him’: widow confronts Peru's president over Covid-19 deaths
					

Martín Vizcarra announced emergency decree putting health ministry in charge of system after Celia Capira chased his truck




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 1, 2020)

Looks like Germany is starting to out do the US in madness, look at the thousands on this protest!


----------



## retribution (Aug 2, 2020)

Here in Melbourne we were 3.5 weeks into a 6 week lockdown, but it's just been tightened and extended by another 6 weeks. New rules include only one member of your household allowed out shopping for supplies once a day, and only exercising within 5km radius of your home, with new restrictions on workplaces to be announced tomorrow. At the moment a lot of non-essential shops are open so I guess they'll shut them down alongside limiting output in meat factories and other high risk areas.

We're averaging about 600 cases/day at the moment in a city of 5 million. How does that compare to say, London's case rate at the peak of the first lockdown in the UK?


----------



## LDC (Aug 2, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Looks like Germany is starting to out do the US in madness, look at the thousands on this protest!




Yeah, the anti-mask/lockdown etc. thing has taken off in Germany much more than anywhere else in Europe. They can be quite funny about health stuff in Germany, be interested to her people's thoughts on why the anti-mask/lockdown stuff has so much more traction there than anywhere else in Europe.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 2, 2020)

retribution said:


> Here in Melbourne we were 3.5 weeks into a 6 week lockdown, but it's just been tightened and extended by another 6 weeks. New rules include only one member of your household allowed out shopping for supplies once a day, and only exercising within 5km radius of your home, with new restrictions on workplaces to be announced tomorrow. At the moment a lot of non-essential shops are open so I guess they'll shut them down alongside limiting output in meat factories and other high risk areas.
> 
> We're averaging about 600 cases/day at the moment in a city of 5 million. How does that compare to say, London's case rate at the peak of the first lockdown in the UK?



Here's the new cases for London, always lower numbers reported for the weekend, followed by high numbers as they catch-up on the lag, so an average of 750 a day at the peak, out of a population of about 9 million.

But, there wasn't much testing back then, so the real numbers would be much higher.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 2, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Yeah, the anti-mask/lockdown etc. thing has taken off in Germany much more than anywhere else in Europe. They can be quite funny about health stuff in Germany, be interested to her people's thoughts on why the anti-mask/lockdown stuff has so much more traction there than anywhere else in Europe.



Some of it is probably down to their low death rate, 110 per million, compared to over 7 times that in other European counties, making them feeling safer.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 2, 2020)

Protests in Germany: 45 officers injured at Berlin rally against coronavirus curbs | DW | 02.08.2020
					

Berlin police said dozens of officers were injured — and three were hospitalized — while dispersing some 20,000 people protesting anti-pandemic measures. Many participants dismissed the coronavirus as a "false alarm."




					www.dw.com
				




 this article is batshit crazy. 

As German officials warn of soaring infection numbers, the protesters remain defiant. "The virus of freedom has reached Berlin," said one of the organizers, Michael Ballweg.

Others chanted: "We are the second wave," as they moved through the German capital.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Aug 2, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Others chanted: "We are the second wave," as they moved through the German capital.



Well, they're not wrong


----------



## LDC (Aug 2, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Some of it is probably down to their low death rate, 110 per million, compared to over 7 times that in other European counties, making them feeling safer.



Wonder what the age demographic breakdown of Germany is too, are these demos more youth driven?


----------



## retribution (Aug 2, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Here's the new cases for London, always lower numbers reported for the weekend, followed by high numbers as they catch-up on the lag, so an average of 750 a day at the peak, out of a population of about 9 million.
> 
> But, there wasn't much testing back then, so the real numbers would be much higher.
> 
> View attachment 224711



Thanks for that. We're doing a pretty good job of testing here, around 70k a day across the state of Victoria, so hopefully our numbers are more accurate, but adjusted for population they're still pretty high. One of the reasons given for tightening our lockdown is the number of "community transmission" cases where they can't trace it back to a particular person or location, indicating that there are undiscovered cases going around.

Interestingly they do genomic sequencing of tests here so they can keep an eye on the strain. The COVID going round now is different to that which was going around in March/April/May, so they're saying that we got rid of local transmission in June only to get it reintroduced by returning travellers in hotel quarantine. There's a lot of concern over the mishandling of quarantine - hiring untrained and incompetent security, rumours of relations between security and guests - which is currently the subject of an enquiry. We had some days with 0 cases in June only for some frisky security guards to ruin it for everyone


----------



## LDC (Aug 2, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Protests in Germany: 45 officers injured at Berlin rally against coronavirus curbs | DW | 02.08.2020
> 
> 
> Berlin police said dozens of officers were injured — and three were hospitalized — while dispersing some 20,000 people protesting anti-pandemic measures. Many participants dismissed the coronavirus as a "false alarm."
> ...



FFS, looks like the lunacy of the end of days.


----------



## phillm (Aug 2, 2020)

As far as I'm aware Australia has done most thing's right and stayed away from Trumpian nonsense. So this is pretty disconcerting as they keep saying this is a marathon, not a sprint. 









						Melbourne is shaking with fear of coronavirus – and nothing is like the first wave | Sophie Black
					

We know we’re the cautionary tale that the rest of the country is scaring themselves with in order to keep 1.5 metres apart




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## SpineyNorman (Aug 2, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Protests in Germany: 45 officers injured at Berlin rally against coronavirus curbs | DW | 02.08.2020
> 
> 
> Berlin police said dozens of officers were injured — and three were hospitalized — while dispersing some 20,000 people protesting anti-pandemic measures. Many participants dismissed the coronavirus as a "false alarm."
> ...


I read that name as michael ballbag at first, had to do a double take. Would be a much more fitting name to be fair.


----------



## elbows (Aug 2, 2020)

retribution said:


> Interestingly they do genomic sequencing of tests here so they can keep an eye on the strain. The COVID going round now is different to that which was going around in March/April/May, so they're saying that we got rid of local transmission in June only to get it reintroduced by returning travellers in hotel quarantine. There's a lot of concern over the mishandling of quarantine - hiring untrained and incompetent security, rumours of relations between security and guests - which is currently the subject of an enquiry. We had some days with 0 cases in June only for some frisky security guards to ruin it for everyone



Yes thats been done in many places and whilst we usually dont understand what the implications of most of the changes mean (often not much), this stuff can still be used in the way you mention, to track the nature of the spread globally over time. For example its been used in the past to apparently confirm that the UKs big outbreak was largely seeded by half-term holidays to a couple of affected regions in europe.

The security guards are probably a partial scapegoat in that they might be part of the largest detected resurgence, but there may well have been other holes in the system that would have lead to the current situation or a similar situation anyway. Maybe they deserve the amount of focus they got, maybe not, its very hard for me to judge, we can see whats been spotted and detailed but not the stuff that hasnt. Its like the zero cases period, the chances are there were still some cases in that period, just not enough to detect via routine testing systems of the time.


----------



## elbows (Aug 2, 2020)

phillm said:


> As far as I'm aware Australia has done most thing's right and stayed away from Trumpian nonsense. So this is pretty disconcerting as they keep saying this is a marathon, not a sprint.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yes I'm afraid its always been the case that doing all the right things for a while is not enough, you have to keep doing them all the way along, or at least keep such a close eye on things that you are ready to reimplement things strongly at short notice.

Which is why I was always nervous about describing some of the early success story countries as if they had permanently dodged the bullet. There arent too many early success stories left unaffected now, although there are a few, including New Zealand I guess but they had a scale advantage and clearly thought they were in a position to restrict and police international travel in a way many countries didnt.

Plus its winter in Australia.


----------



## editor (Aug 2, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Looks like Germany is starting to out do the US in madness, look at the thousands on this protest!


I always though that Berliners were too sensible to copy US fuckwittery but this is depressing as fuck





Not a mask in sight



" Thousands march along the 'Friedrichstrasse' during the demonstration against corona measures in Berlin, Germany, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2020. The initiative "Querdenken 711" has called for this. The motto of the demonstration is "The end of the pandemic - Freedom Day". (Christoph Soeder/dpa via AP) "


----------



## editor (Aug 2, 2020)

Not sure where Bill Gates comes into this 









						‘Pestered’ Belgians sue Bill Gates and Belgium over coronavirus restrictions
					






					www.brusselstimes.com


----------



## Reno (Aug 2, 2020)

editor said:


> I always though that Berliners were too sensible to copy US fuckwittery but this is depressing as fuck
> 
> View attachment 224740
> 
> ...



It should be said that these aren't mainly Berliner's, they came from all over Germany for this.

Still, an embarrassment equal of any Trump-addled Covid-19 deniers. I saw interviews with participants on tv and it's always the same crap. "The virus doesn't exist because "I can't see it/don't know anybody who has got it." The reason that Germany so far has gotten through this better than most countries by acting reasonably fast and sensibly, is the stick to beat it with.  While this is a huge march, these twats are a minority. I still don't see why we had all our outdoor festies, for some of which security concepts could have been worked out, cancelled to allow for thousands of people to congregate who are intent on spreading the virus.


----------



## editor (Aug 2, 2020)




----------



## two sheds (Aug 2, 2020)

Are we sure this isn't organized by someone with a cunning plot to get rid of conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers & right-wing extremists?


----------



## Supine (Aug 2, 2020)

This is how you do contact tracing / understanding outbreaks. 

Hong Kong shows where individual cases occur


----------



## teuchter (Aug 4, 2020)

An article with some speculation about why Spain appears to be seeing more surges in infection rates than Italy is.









						Why does Italy have fewer new Covid-19 cases than Spain?
					

Since the Italian government eased lockdown restrictions, the country has been reporting an average of 200 daily infections, while Spanish authorities are recording more than 1,500




					english.elpais.com


----------



## return of caleb (Aug 4, 2020)

phillm said:


> As far as I'm aware Australia has done most thing's right and stayed away from Trumpian nonsense. So this is pretty disconcerting as they keep saying this is a marathon, not a sprint.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I think on paper Australia did 'most things right' -- there are some details lacking though. Back in mid-March, when under some popular pressure (seeing what was happening around the world, there was a genuine desire to 'do _something_') a rather limited lockdown was entered. The onus was very much on individual behaviour, and for the most part there was a high degree of compliance with this; yet industry and business, with the exception of hospitality, leisure and tourism, had relatively few restrictions placed on operations. Retail shops got to define whether they were essential or not, even if individuals could only leave the house for 'essential shopping'; the Aussie equivalent of B&Q? Never shut. Hairdressers and barbers? Remained open throughout. Construction? Unions and construction firms joined forces to argue for _twenty-four hour_ worksites.

So yes, Australia entered a lockdown relatively early on, and was largely free of idiots and conspiracy theorists, but on the other hand that lockdown was never really _that_ strict. The other key thing to remember is that when Australia entered this lockdown, there _weren't really many cases_ of coronavirus here at all. The vast, vast majority came from people returning to the country who were then put in hotel quarantine. This means, again on paper, the conditions were always ripe for 'crushing the curve', as one government minister put it.

Now what happened in Victoria - as alluded to above - was the management contracts for the hotel quarantine scheme (really, the essential piece in this puzzle, since that's where most cases were) was handed to the equivalent of say, G4S. This lot then subcontracted smaller security firms, etc. and staff basically had no training and very limited PPE. A couple of things are suggested above that need rebutting: the first is that these security firms may just be 'scapegoats'. No, genomic sequencing seems to suggest that the vast majority of cases in Victoria can be traced back to one particular hotel, Rydges on Swanston. The fault lies firmly with the management of hotel quarantine by these security firms. The second is that it was a guard 'entering a relationship' with a returned traveller - there is no evidence for this; it's enough to say these guards were not really trained, provided with the correct gear, etc.

So at this point it's a perfect storm, right? Australia _has _'crushed the curve' because most of its cases have been in hotel quarantine, and hotel quarantine is the weak link here. But the other weak link is industry, which has never really had any restrictions placed on it. In mid-May spread from the hotel quarantine situation has begun to embed in communities where many members work in the very precarious industries where very few restrictions are in place -- and since most of them are casual workers they have little choice but to work, for fear of losing their livelihood. 

Since mid-May - again - 80% of cases have been attributed to workplace spread. _But it was only yesterday _that real restrictions were put on workplaces. I think that says it all.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 4, 2020)

They certainly don't mess about down under, fines of up to £10,899 for repeat offenders that breach stay at home orders.   



> Australia’s second-most populous state Victoria said on Tuesday that anyone breaking COVID-19 isolation orders will face hefty fines, as high as A$20,000 (10,899 pounds), and that more military personnel will be deployed to fight the spread of the virus.
> ---
> But nearly a third of those who contracted COVID-19 were not home isolating when checked on by officials, requiring tough new penalties, Victoria state Premier Daniel Andrews said on Tuesday. Fines of nearly A$5,000 will be issued to anyone breaching stay at home orders. Repeat offenders face a fine of up to A$20,000.
> 
> “There is literally no reason for you to leave your home and if you were to leave your home and not be found there, you will have a very difficult time convincing Victoria police that you have a lawful reason,” Andrews told reporters in Melbourne.











						Australian state to impose hefty fines to compel COVID-19 isolation
					

Australia's second-most populous state Victoria said on Tuesday that anyone breaking COVID-19 isolation orders will face hefty fines, as high as A$20,000 (10,899 pounds), and that more military personnel will be deployed to fight the spread of the virus.




					uk.reuters.com


----------



## return of caleb (Aug 4, 2020)

Here's the thing you've got to remember though: this punitive approach hasn't been working at all - as this wave shows - insofar as it affects individuals. More needs to be done to businesses that aren't making their workplaces covid-safe, are continuing to operate, or who are refusing to give staff sick leave to isolate, all of which have been issues driving the workplace spread. This is 'look we're tough', but in the wider context falls quite flat.

There has been a concerted effort to make this about the minority of idiot individuals who do flout the rules, despite these idiots not being the real drivers of this infection but outliers. From a public health perspective, there's also a _very serious risk_ this will lead people to avoid tests.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 4, 2020)

I think India and South Africa have had a similar issue tbh with the overly punitive response actually driving the spread of infection.


----------



## return of caleb (Aug 4, 2020)

It's also interesting to note that there has actually been a not insignificant Trumpian 'end the lockdown' element among the political class throughout the country, and these have been the people calling _most _passionately for the really harsh, punitive measures. I believe an opposition (Liberal) MP in Victoria called on the Premier to put ankle bracelets on all positive cases, the rest of the time this person has called for reopening the economy and ending all restrictions.

It's kind of fascinating to be honest, thinking about coronavirus comparatively and the different approaches taken globally. Yet everywhere a very similar story seems to emerge: deep, material issues caused by decades of privatisation, precarious employment and the destruction of workplace politics is the gap into which the virus slips. And the easiest response is to individualise the solution.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 4, 2020)

In view of what happened earlier this year, why on earth would anyone want to step aboard a bloody cruise ship? 



> At least 41 passengers and crew on a Norwegian cruise ship have tested positive for Covid-19, officials say.
> 
> Hundreds more passengers who travelled on the MS Roald Amundsen are in quarantine and awaiting test results, the company that owns the ship said.











						Coronavirus: Dozens test positive for Covid-19 on Norwegian cruise ship
					

The outbreak on the MS Roald Amundsen comes just weeks after the cruise industry began to reopen.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 4, 2020)

Russia aiming at rolling out a vaccine within the next few weeks. 

Russia Aims to Produce 'Millions' of Virus Doses by 2021 - The Moscow Times

Meanwhile, sordid squabbles over hacking don't show the world up at its best. Thus far, the world has singularly failed to come together to coordinate its efforts at a vaccine. Instead, it is an unseemly race between greedy concerns dreaming of becoming millionaires.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 4, 2020)

This on the other hand is astonishing. Lukashenko has covid (apparently quite badly) and has kept everything open the entire time, with nobody allowed to wear a mask in his presence


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 4, 2020)




----------



## Teaboy (Aug 4, 2020)

I got the impression with Batka he just made a decision early on that the country wouldn't be able to do much so they'd just try and style it out.  I guess because their borders are a lot tighter than most of Europe.  It was pretty obvious they'd be in trouble as soon as Moscow started reporting the numbers they did.

Fortunately from what I've heard the Belorussians in general have taken it a lot more seriously and hopefully managed the situation at a community level.  Fingers crossed anyway.


----------



## William of Walworth (Aug 4, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I think *India *and South Africa have had a similar issue tbh with the overly punitive response actually driving the spread of infection.



That reminded me (indirectly!) of a story ot two that I'd already seen a while back, about some landlords in Indian cities evicting doctors/nurses/medical staff,  out of covid-fear 

Then we have this example of a rich woman dispensing with her servants because they love in overcrowded slums 

There's other depressing information in that article about poverty-stricken slum dwellers, as well  




			
				Amrit Dhillon said:
			
		

> Social activist Harsh Mander points out that even when thousands died of bubonic plague in the 19th century in what was then Bombay, city administrators recognised that the surest defence against future pandemics was well-ventilated, decent housing for workers.
> 
> “It is a lesson we refuse to learn, because the lives of the poor have always mattered too little in India. In this pandemic too, we have effectively abandoned the poor in their crowded unhygienic habitats. Middle-class people fail to recognise how closely our destinies are tied, and indeed our survival,” says Mander.
> Some 100 million Indians live in slums, a figure that will only grow with rising urbanisation ...


----------



## The39thStep (Aug 4, 2020)

Over here in Portugal it looks like they’ve cracked the Lisbon and Lisbon suburbs issue after over a month of testing tracking and tracing . new cases nationally down below 200 a day now from 350-390. Some outbreaks in old folks homes but work related outbreaks have slowed down . This is despite the fact that there is some tourism , I went to two beaches last week and whilst they were socially distanced they were still rammed tbh . The larger ones are quite good for late July August but the smaller resort ones aren’t. Life , bar wearing masks and high unemployment due to the drop in tourism , is pretty normal here in the South.


----------



## Bollox (Aug 5, 2020)

Ancient part of immune system may underpin severe COVID


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 5, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> That reminded me (indirectly!) of a story ot two that I'd already seen a while back, about some landlords in Indian cities evicting doctors/nurses/medical staff,  out of covid-fear
> 
> Then we have this example of a rich woman dispensing with her servants because they love in overcrowded slums
> 
> There's other depressing information in that article about poverty-stricken slum dwellers, as well



 iirc the air is very polluted in Delhi which has been linked to a more severe course of the disease.


----------



## emanymton (Aug 5, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Russia aiming at rolling out a vaccine within the next few weeks.
> 
> Russia Aims to Produce 'Millions' of Virus Doses by 2021 - The Moscow Times
> 
> Meanwhile, sordid squabbles over hacking don't show the world up at its best. Thus far, the world has singularly failed to come together to coordinate its efforts at a vaccine. Instead, it is an unseemly race between greedy concerns dreaming of becoming millionaires.


Would you really have expected otherwise?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 5, 2020)

Spain reported a big spike in new cases yesterday - 5,760 - at first I assumed it was just the lag from the weekend figures being reported, but it doesn't seem to be the case, as those days were around the recent average of 2,500-3,000 a day anyway.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 5, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Spain reported a big spike in new cases yesterday - 5,760 - at first I assumed it was just the lag from the weekend figures being reported, but it doesn't seem to be the case, as those days were around the recent average of 2,500-3,000 a day anyway.


Bit of a lag, yes, due to some regions not reporting for a while, so that figure is a catch-up figure. These are the figures up to yesterday by region.

https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesiona...ina/documentos/Actualizacion_177_COVID-19.pdf

Not counting Ceuta or Melilla, cos they're tiny, I make that around 5 regions out of 17 that would be under consideration for special measures in the UK with those levels of infection. Madrid's drifting up, but otherwise, the current outbreak is concentrated around that line south of the Pyrenees from the Basque Country to Catalunya, and the spikes have all levelled off in those areas over the last week.

Edit:

And the deeper you dig, the more granular you make the data, the more you see how very localised this still is. So in Catalunya, where new cases have now started going down again, the distribution of new cases looks like this.



To put that into context, the green areas would not be considered for special measures in the UK. Some of the yellow areas might be borderline. The orange, red and purple areas definitely would be under special measures.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 5, 2020)

emanymton said:


> Would you really have expected otherwise?


A bit of the Jonas Salk spirit in all this? I wouldn't have bet on it, no. I don't think it's unreasonable to point out its absence, though, as if what is happening were all ok.


----------



## Dogsauce (Aug 6, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> Over here in Portugal it looks like they’ve cracked the Lisbon and Lisbon suburbs issue after over a month of testing tracking and tracing . new cases nationally down below 200 a day now from 350-390. Some outbreaks in old folks homes but work related outbreaks have slowed down . This is despite the fact that there is some tourism , I went to two beaches last week and whilst they were socially distanced they were still rammed tbh . The larger ones are quite good for late July August but the smaller resort ones aren’t. Life , bar wearing masks and high unemployment due to the drop in tourism , is pretty normal here in the South.



my reflections on a couple of weeks in Portugal:


everyone wears masks in shops, it’s just second nature to do it as it’s been going on for a while.
Hand sanitiser stations are everywhere in shops/streets/malls
families are still mingling a lot, we visited quite a lot of relatives. No face kissing, a few jokey elbow bumps.
resort we go to (a local’s place) was pretty quiet, though August is the peak month for nationals as almost everyone has the month off and we left before the peak.
plenty of ex-pats coming back for the summer, still seeing a lot of french and Swiss numberplates.
Daily numbers relating to the disease are issued in a very straightforward and clear way,  no sense that they’re being spun/gamed (e.g. Covid-19: Portugal Update, 5 August ). Interesting that they quote the number of people being monitored, which is quite high relative to number infected and suggests they’re doing a lot of track and trace.
the form I had to fill in before flying out there wasn’t collected or mentioned at any point. The mrs and kids (who flew out a week before me) did have theirs collected. We didn’t fly into the same place (them Porto, me Faro).

The only time I felt a little bit uncomfortable was when we went out for a pizza, the only time we ate at a place indoors. People wore masks until eating, staff were sanitising tables which were fairly well spaced (although some large family groups). They had a side door open which meant a good breeze coming through the place, but at some point that closed and the windows in the place steamed up, which didn’t seem like a good thing (presume from people’s breath although could have been vapour from the kitchen).


----------



## The39thStep (Aug 6, 2020)

Dogsauce said:


> my reflections on a couple of weeks in Portugal:
> 
> 
> everyone wears masks in shops, it’s just second nature to do it as it’s been going on for a while.
> ...



Seen quite a few French and Swiss , some of them returning Portuguese nationals coming back on holiday and curiously lots of Dutch. I've eaten inside a few times but mainly eat outside tbh but that's because of the heat. The DSG bulltin board is great loads of things to play about with and its been pretty much in the same easy to understand format since the beginning. The relatively high compliance re the restrictions is imo bolstered by the very prompt police enforcement early on. Lots of patrols, bars were shut down that kept open in the lockdown, fines for parties, street gatherings in the cities and after the lockdown was lifted very prompt ( and in some cases use of batons) in dispersing groups over 20 and attempted beach parties at night).
None of my visitors had their form collected at Faro either. As for the quarantine in the UK no checks or reminders at Manchester , no texts or phone calls . My son went to two job interviews during his quarantine. August traditionally see those from the North come to the south so will be a testing time. Luckily for me I avoid the coast like the plague in that month and just stay here in the countryside.


----------



## Dogsauce (Aug 6, 2020)

One interesting thing in the Portugal stats from yesterday - exactly the same number of deaths from men and women (870 of each).


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 6, 2020)

Masks, no assembly and no choir: the science behind reopening schools safely
					

The data shows that most countries in the world have not seen major outbreaks as a result of reopening their education systems




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




Really interesting and quite balanced piece about opening schools safely here.


----------



## teuchter (Aug 6, 2020)

Dogsauce said:


> the windows in the place steamed up, which didn’t seem like a good thing (presume from people’s breath although could have been vapour from the kitchen).


Doesn't really matter where the vapour comes from; it's an indication that there's not enough ventilation for the humidity of the inside air to equalise with the air outside. Don't think I want to be in any building where the windows are steaming up, at the moment.


----------



## zora (Aug 7, 2020)

Article in German weekly Die Zeit by Christian Drosten (the German virologist I have mentioned on occasion), outlining a strategy to deal with a second wave in autumn without having to go into another lockdown. (Disclaimer: I am not sure how relevant/translatable this is to the UK in terms of prevalence and resources and ease (or unease) of lockdown, and I am not quite sure I understand it correctly). 
The strategy is being suggested in the scenario that cases rise so much and so widely that the public health system does not have the capacity to follow up every single infection chain. In this case he advocates for a "cluster strategy". It is based on the assumption/observation that the spread of the infection is not homogenous but differs widely between people/situations. So for example, if there is an R of 2 it wouldn't in reality mean that every person infects 2 other people but that 9 people would infect one other person, and one out of ten people infects 11. 
If a person tests positive, contact tracing should concentrate on evaluating if the person has been in a cluster-risk situation in the last couple of days before showing symptoms (when infectiousness starts). This could be a family party, an open-plan office, a football team, a class in school etc. And also, what kind of cluster situation might the patient themselves have been infected in, roughly a week before start of symptoms? All people in these potential "origin clusters" should then immediately self-isolate at home. 
He answers the question if these broad clusters need to quarantine up and down the country, would this not be in effect another lockdown? Based on the data of incubation time/time of infectiousness he argues that people quarantining from these clusters should be tested on Day 5 of this period for the virus. In addition to the positive/negative result, he argues that we might be able to determine a level of infectiousness (shown by the PCR in the amount of virus present) under which it will be okay to allow even the majority of positive testing people from this period confinement immediately after receiving the test result. (Not to be confused with the 14 day quarantine for a household which I believe would still be in place)

In summary he advocates for identifying the people/situations accelerating the spread, broaden but shorten quarantine (in combination with testing), use more detailed test results to determine infectiousness. 

ZEIT ONLINE | Lesen Sie zeit.de mit Werbung oder im PUR-Abo. Sie haben die Wahl.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Aug 7, 2020)

That's really interesting zora Thank you.


----------



## weltweit (Aug 7, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> That's really interesting zora Thank you.


Yes it is, some paragraphs might have made it easier to read though :-/


----------



## kabbes (Aug 7, 2020)

I’m fairly horrified that this is apparently a mainstream enough view in the US that an ERM department of a major US insurance broker is writing it in an industry publication.  It’s not hard to spot the flaws if you don’t have a US ”it’ll all be over by Christmas” mindset.









						Herd immunity to Covid-19 may be reached sooner than thought
					

<b>Dave Ingram</b> shows how US rates of Covid-19 infection can flatten off surprising quickly under certain scenarios - and with far lower rates of infection overall




					www.insuranceerm.com
				




Not sure if it’s paywalled, so here’s the text (two posts as it’s too big)



> Herd immunity from Covid-19 sounds attractive. The pandemic starts to die off "naturally". But the cost seems very high. The most common situation that is cited for herd immunity regarding Covid-19 is when 60% of the population has been infected.1
> 
> The following describes how it is quite possible to achieve herd immunity at different – and much lower – levels of total infections.
> 
> ...


----------



## kabbes (Aug 7, 2020)

Second part:



> *Herd immunity*
> Herd immunity starts when the new cases curve reaches a peak and starts to turn down. These three projections all show the US achieving herd immunity. None gets to the often-reported 60% infection rate. Herd immunity is achieved at a 27% infection rate for the 10% NIR projection, at 11% infection rate for the 8%, and it is present from the start of the 6% projection. But while herd immunity is technically achieved at those cumulative infection levels, new infections are reduced after that point, but can continue for months.
> 
> Because the NIR is defined as the new cases divided by the sum of the prior 14 days' new cases, each infection runs through the model as an active case causing new infections for 14 days. In the 10% projection, we apply that 10% rate to each of the active cases for those 14 days, which results in 1.4 future new cases from each of today's cases. At 8%, there are 1.12 future new cases from each of today's new cases. Finally, at 6% NIR, there are only 0.84 new cases from each of today's new cases, resulting in a decline.
> ...


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 8, 2020)

I've got a mate who's due to be off to France today, I've got this gut feeling he'll decide against it now.









						Coronavirus: France infections surge at post-lockdown record rate as country could be next on quarantine list
					

The chancellor tells those planning a holiday "if we need to take action... we will of course not hesitate to do that".




					news.sky.com


----------



## Sue (Aug 8, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> I've got a mate who's due to be off to France today, I've got this gut feeling he'll decide against it now.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I've a friend who's due back from France this weekend. Hopefully he'll make it before things change. (Saying that, he's WFH so it could be worse.)

Was talking to a friend who lives in Paris last night. He reckons the increase in numbers is because everyone's pretty much gone back to normal behaviour, especially in bars and restaurants which are packed.


----------



## teuchter (Aug 8, 2020)

10% - not exactly a dramatic change.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 8, 2020)

Brazil COVID-19 deaths reach 100,000 and barrel onward
					

Brazil's death toll from COVID-19 passed 100,000 on Saturday and continue to climb as most Brazilian cities reopen shops and dining even though the pandemic has yet to peak.




					www.reuters.com
				






> Confronting its most lethal outbreak since the Spanish flu a century ago, Brazil reported its first cases of the novel coronavirus at the end of February. The virus took three months to kill 50,000 people, and just 50 days to kill the next 50,000.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 9, 2020)

Coronavirus Update (Live): 129,471,257 Cases and 2,828,154 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				




Looking on this site the cases seem to of hit a plateau and (hopefully) are starting to come down. I'm kinda hoping it's masks/social distancing and even perhaps some population immunity keeping numbers low but I'm kinda worried that there could be an element of inadequate testing and/or deliberate massaging of the figures in some countries. South Africa appears to have had many more infections and deaths than the figures state for example.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Aug 9, 2020)

This looks interesting - a list of superspreader events.  Difficult to tell how accurate given it's an open list.



From this site






						About
					






					superspreadingeventsdatabase.blogspot.com


----------



## teuchter (Aug 10, 2020)

What is it about meat processing factories, of which there are a lot on that list?


----------



## LDC (Aug 10, 2020)

teuchter said:


> What is it about meat processing factories, of which there are a lot on that list?



Already been talked about numerous times. Temperature good for the virus, a close working environment between workers, noisy so people shout, likely to be low waged workers often also sharing accommodation, usually male, etc.


----------



## clicker (Aug 10, 2020)

Greece expected to make announcement today re further restrictions. Lots of rumours, but numbers going up and they were doing so well.


----------



## teuchter (Aug 10, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Already been talked about numerous times. Temperature good for the virus, a close working environment between workers, noisy so people shout, likely to be low waged workers often also sharing accommodation, usually male, etc.


Actually reading up a bit since I asked the question - it seems the significant factor may be the ventilation to refridgerated areas, as air is recirculated in the ventilation system.


----------



## Teaboy (Aug 10, 2020)

clicker said:


> Greece expected to make announcement today re further restrictions. Lots of rumours, but numbers going up and they were doing so well.



They were very keen to welcome tourists this summer.  Really very tricky for the authorities because Greece is so reliant on tourist money probably even more so than Spain.


----------



## zahir (Aug 10, 2020)

Cases on the rise in Greece.









						New daily record in Greece: 203 new coronavirus cases; deaths reach 212 - Keep Talking Greece
					

An all time high in daily cases, higher even than at the peak of the coronavirus, is recorded in Gre




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Aug 10, 2020)

Anectodal: lots of new restrictions introduced in Gumbet - turkey on Saturday 
and a quick search brought an article from yesterday on the times website saying there is an "unofficial" surge in cases there.


----------



## teuchter (Aug 10, 2020)

Of course there's a lag, but Greece (orange) and Turkey (blue) seem to be doing just fine as far as deaths are concerned.
A lot of these headlines aren't reporting much more than noisy data when you've got very small numbers involved, I think.


----------



## elbows (Aug 10, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Of course there's a lag, but Greece (orange) and Turkey (blue) seem to be doing just fine as far as deaths are concerned.
> A lot of these headlines aren't reporting much more than noisy data when you've got very small numbers involved, I think.



There are stories to be told that dont involve death.

I'd say the trend with number of cases in Greece is worthy of reporting. As I've said a fair bit recently, not too many countries that intend to tackle the pandemic pro-actively are going to sit around waiting to see whether deaths start to increase before taking action these days.


----------



## teuchter (Aug 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> There are stories to be told that dont involve death.
> 
> I'd say the trend with number of cases in Greece is worthy of reporting. As I've said a fair bit recently, not too many countries that intend to tackle the pandemic pro-actively are going to sit around waiting to see whether deaths start to increase before taking action these days.
> 
> View attachment 225995


Sure, but you can see similar trends in other countries too ... it may be to do with improved testing, or it might indicate an increase in prevalence, it seems difficult to know unless you see evidence filtering through to deaths or hospital admissions etc.


----------



## zahir (Aug 10, 2020)

I’d take the figures from Greece at face value. It is what it looks like.


----------



## Brainaddict (Aug 10, 2020)

Even the countries that managed the virus better than the UK are repeatedly having trouble. I more and more think that it's NZ that's got it right: total suppression, full enforced quarantine at the border. Both morally and in economic terms it looks like the winning strategy. I know it's difficult to do from the situation we're now in, but it's not impossible and I think it's going to be better than managing these waves - and the economic and human cost of that - until the mythical vaccine is found.


----------



## elbows (Aug 10, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Sure, but you can see similar trends in other countries too ... it may be to do with improved testing, or it might indicate an increase in prevalence, it seems difficult to know unless you see evidence filtering through to deaths or hospital admissions etc.



But the people in those places analysing the data do know whether something about their own testing regime has changed recently. Its a factor that needs to be taken into account, but its unlikely to be the only thing driving recent increases.

I dont necessarily expect that many newsworthy increases in case detection to lead to newsworthy increases in hospitalisations and deaths even after factoring in the usual lag. Because certainly the point about improved testing is very relevant if attempting to compare number of cases now with number of cases in the older initial wave data. In many countries the numbers cannot be compared in a straightforward way because the vast bulk of cases were not tested in the first wave. So I dont have a reason to think, for example, that if the number of cases in green in that last chart for the Netherlands were to reach again the levels it reached months ago, the rate of death would also climb to the same level as before.


----------



## clicker (Aug 10, 2020)

Greece ...


They are now insisting on negative covid tests,  taken 72 hrs before entering Greece for 5 countries...Spain, Belgium, Czech rep and can't remember. I think that's air passengers, land borders stricter.
Bars closing at midnight from tonight, no standing, dancing or performers (unless seated.)
I think they're doing the right thing asking for negative testing before travel. I can see that being adopted elsewhere.
No outdoor festivals and it's peak 'festival for everything' season, for locals and tourists.
Today's restrictions to be reviewed in a week.


----------



## elbows (Aug 10, 2020)

I havent read any ECDC documents for months, and I used to go on about those quite a lot. If this quote from the following article is anything to go by then its probably time I had a fresh look.



> The Stockholm-based European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control called on member states that are seeing an increase in cases to reinstate control measures, warning of a “true resurgence” in several countries and a “risk of further escalation” across the continent.



From Coronavirus in Europe: France extends mask use as Greece says it is in second wave


----------



## teuchter (Aug 10, 2020)

Brainaddict said:


> Even the countries that managed the virus better than the UK are repeatedly having trouble. I more and more think that it's NZ that's got it right: total suppression, full enforced quarantine at the border. Both morally and in economic terms it looks like the winning strategy. I know it's difficult to do from the situation we're now in, but it's not impossible and I think it's going to be better than managing these waves - and the economic and human cost of that - until the mythical vaccine is found.


Do you think it would realistically be possible in the UK?
No truck drivers crossing the channel, for example?


----------



## LDC (Aug 10, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Do you think it would realistically be possible in the UK?
> No truck drivers crossing the channel, for example?



I think it would be _possible_, but it's not realistic as it would require huge political will and have massive social implications that I'm not sure people would accept.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Aug 10, 2020)




----------



## zahir (Aug 10, 2020)

New measures in Greece.









						Greece announced additional measures to contain spread of coronavirus - Keep Talking Greece
					

Greece announced on Monday a series of additional measures and restrictions to contain the spread of




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## editor (Aug 10, 2020)

Sue said:


> I've a friend who's due back from France this weekend. Hopefully he'll make it before things change. (Saying that, he's WFH so it could be worse.)
> 
> Was talking to a friend who lives in Paris last night. He reckons the increase in numbers is because everyone's pretty much gone back to normal behaviour, especially in bars and restaurants which are packed.


It hasn't been looking to clever down St Tropez way: 



> Last week, two of the French Riviera resort’s hot spots — Indie Beach House on Ramatuelle’s Pampelonne Beach, and Pablo, a trendy bistro on Saint-Tropez’s Place des Lices, both owned by the same company — where shut down when four staff members reportedly tested positive for the coronavirus. Since then, authorities have reported that 20 of Pablo’s 30 employees and one of Indie Beach’s have been infected with the virus that causes the disease covid-19.
> 
> Another eatery, Noto, which describes itself as a “festive Italian restaurant” on the Place des Lices, was shuttered Monday for two weeks after six employees tested positive. And the regional health agency recorded 64 cases on the peninsula between July 25 and Aug. 1.
> 
> Meanwhile, on Thursday, the local prefecture closed two other hopping Pampelonne Beach clubs — Moorea and Verde — for not respecting social distancing rules. Indeed, on the eve of the closure announcement, Verde’s thumping music and the cheering of the crowd could be heard a mile away.





> As the summer progressed, some restaurants and beach clubs loosened up on the rules. Live music during dinner service brought mask-free dancing, which management shrugged off. With nightclubs such as the VIP Room and Les Caves du Roy padlocked for the season, some beach clubs became daytime discothèques, with waitstaff wearing masks on their chins — or not at all. In late July, Nikki Beach came under fire after videos circulated on social media of hundreds of unmasked partyers cavorting to music by French DJ Kungs.
> 
> After the local authorities stepped up enforcement, some clubs hired “guetteurs,” or lookouts, who are posted at beach-road entrances and call the maître d’ when the gendarmes drive up for spot inspections. Down goes the music, up go the masks.





> Then came the outbreak. And the closures. And the new mask regulations, which the Var-Matin charmingly dubbed the “Bal Masqué,” or masquerade ball. On Saturday, the paper reported two more fashionable restaurants in town — the Salama and the Gaïo — had closed shop, and Siri, the deputy mayor, said the sub-prefect “envisions other closures as a preventive measure if health measures are not more effectively put in place.”







__





						Outline - Read & annotate without distractions
					

Outline is a free service for reading and annotating news articles. We remove the clutter so you can analyze and comment on the content.




					outline.com


----------



## Brainaddict (Aug 10, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I think it would be _possible_, but it's not realistic as it would require huge political will and have massive social implications that I'm not sure people would accept.


Well, I don't think it's realistic for this bunch, and they've repeatedly sabotaged any chance of anyone taking them seriously so have no political capital except among twats. With another government it would have been realistic and people could have been persuaded if the right approach had been taken from the beginning of saying let's not let people die, instead of normalising constant death from CV-19.


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (Aug 11, 2020)

Don’t really know where to put this, but...

In March British Airways came out with a policy of book with confidence, if you book flights up to September you can change them without penalty and if you can’t take them for any reason you can have a credit, when they would normally incur a change penalty of £60 or £100 and be non-refundable. Other airlines have done the same.

Yesterday BA extended this. For travel until August 2021.

The Tokyo Olympics were postponed until next summer. The IOC recently came out and said that it will not postpone it further but will cancel if they can’t go ahead.

We are being prepared for this bastard thing to run and run. It will not be all over by Christmas


----------



## William of Walworth (Aug 11, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> We are being prepared for this bastard thing to run and run. It will not be all over by Christmas



Without any sign of any vaccine, that's 100% true. Nor do I think (at all) that 'all this' will be over by Xmas.

And also I keep telling myself, really strictly, not to get too optimistic about any vaccine prospect.

But in terms of 2021 more generally, your statement there is (to me) still more about likely, rather than absolutely inevitable


----------



## maomao (Aug 11, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> Don’t really know where to put this, but...
> 
> In March British Airways came out with a policy of book with confidence, if you book flights up to September you can change them without penalty and if you can’t take them for any reason you can have a credit, when they would normally incur a change penalty of £60 or £100 and be non-refundable. Other airlines have done the same.
> 
> ...



The big travel agent in central London my wife used to work for is down to a fraction of its previous size. Furloughed over 80% of the staff. The whole industry looks ruined.


----------



## Chz (Aug 11, 2020)

My mrs works for a ski holiday company. Bookings are down, as you would expect, but there are a lot of optimistic people out there. I suppose they're all confident they'll get their money back, so why not chance it?


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (Aug 11, 2020)

Chz said:


> My mrs works for a ski holiday company. Bookings are down, as you would expect, but there are a lot of optimistic people out there. I suppose they're all confident they'll get their money back, *so why not chance it?*



Cos the company might well go bust?


----------



## mx wcfc (Aug 11, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> Cos the company might well go bust?


wouldn't ABTA cover it?  (this is daft.  anyone booking a skiing holiday should take the risk themselves, rather than everyone bearing the risk through increased holiday costs - didn't most of Europe's infection come via ski resorts?)


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (Aug 11, 2020)

mx wcfc said:


> wouldn't ABTA cover it?  (this is daft.  anyone booking a skiing holiday should take the risk themselves, rather than everyone bearing the risk through increased holiday costs - didn't most of Europe's infection come via ski resorts?)



ABTA won’t, ATOL may, the government is also making noises that they will back holidays. The big danger is holidays that are not cancelled but which you can’t take cos of government restrictions; when Spain was taken off the air corridor list airlines didn’t cancel all flights (they have started now, two weeks later), that meant that you either accepted a credit if not going or went and took the quarantine (that no one is abiding by...)

Switzerland may well be taken off the safe countries list in the coming days, I went there last week and was very uncomfortable that masks were not worn anywhere.

A high profile carrier flew from Singapore with Covid to a ski resort and on to the UK, ski resorts themselves are not hives of plague though.


----------



## weltweit (Aug 12, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> ..
> A high profile carrier flew from Singapore with Covid to a ski resort and on to the UK, ski resorts themselves are not hives of plague though.


Yes, that was right near the start of the UK's covid story iirc. It was that one you were referring to?


----------



## mx wcfc (Aug 12, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Yes, that was right near the start of the UK's covid story iirc. It was that one you were referring to?


It was the one I was referring too, yes.


----------



## return of caleb (Aug 12, 2020)

Brainaddict said:


> Even the countries that managed the virus better than the UK are repeatedly having trouble. I more and more think that it's NZ that's got it right: total suppression, full enforced quarantine at the border. Both morally and in economic terms it looks like the winning strategy. I know it's difficult to do from the situation we're now in, but it's not impossible and I think it's going to be better than managing these waves - and the economic and human cost of that - until the mythical vaccine is found.





teuchter said:


> Do you think it would realistically be possible in the UK?
> No truck drivers crossing the channel, for example?





LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I think it would be _possible_, but it's not realistic as it would require huge political will and have massive social implications that I'm not sure people would accept.





Brainaddict said:


> Well, I don't think it's realistic for this bunch, and they've repeatedly sabotaged any chance of anyone taking them seriously so have no political capital except among twats. With another government it would have been realistic and people could have been persuaded if the right approach had been taken from the beginning of saying let's not let people die, instead of normalising constant death from CV-19.



Oof. Hasn't aged well in only a few hours. Four new cases in New Zealand from no known source.

The reality of the suppression vs. eradication debate as it's been played out in the Antipodes is that coronavirus wasn't really 'here' the first time around; I think that context is often lost when New Zealand or - until recently - Australia's success is compared to the criminal handling of the pandemic by the British government.

New Zealand claimed eradication, but this seems to have come at the expense of actually building up public health systems to track and trace new cases. Now unless you're going to close down your borders _entirely_, 100%, which no country is going to do - and I'm sure you'll agree, is not defensible - you have to live with the possibility that new cases may pop up. You can't close your border 95% of the way and claim eradication; if you do that, you have to have controls in place to identify where cases have arisen from immediately.

I'm not a 'reopen the economy' nutter by any means: I lost a member of my partner's family to coronavirus recently, I know how serious this is. But anybody touting NZ as a model needs to be serious about the social implications of such an 'eradication' strategy to be successful (as NZ's has now proven not to be).


----------



## LDC (Aug 12, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> Cos the company might well go bust?



I know it's terrible for the workers, and it'll be an highly unpopular view, but I do feel that unfortunately loads of this stuff needed to go anyway. The travel industry as it is is totally unsustainable and has all sorts of other negative impacts. It obviously would have been much better to softly transition away from it with a cultural and social shift, but this more brutal way might be the only chance we have in reality.

Most of the travel industry, huge chunks of the hospitality industry, some of the entertainment industry, all of the fashion industry, and a whole load of other stuff that's collapsing we'll be better off without longer term. What we should be doing is not trying to re-establish those (and other similar areas) but re-shaping our whole economy and productive capability and put the effort in there instead.


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (Aug 12, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I know it's terrible for the workers, and it'll be an highly unpopular view, but I do feel that unfortunately loads of this stuff needed to go anyway. The travel industry as it is is totally unsustainable and has all sorts of other negative impacts. It obviously would have been much better to softly transition away from it with a cultural and social shift, but this more brutal way might be the only chance we have in reality.
> 
> Most of the travel industry, huge chunks of the hospitality industry, some of the entertainment industry, all of the fashion industry, and a whole load of other stuff that's collapsing we'll be better off without longer term.



Probably right, but how far do you go? Banning all live music would be fabulous for the planet, same with theatres that droves of people travel from all over to visit, often the theatre itself tours. Closing the museums and galleries would prevent a lot of needless journeys too. All this shit can be enjoyed online, as we have done the past few months...


----------



## LDC (Aug 12, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> Probably right, but how far do you go? Banning all live music would be fabulous for the planet, same with theatres that droves of people travel from all over to visit, often the theatre itself tours. Closing the museums and galleries would prevent a lot of needless journeys too. All this shit can be enjoyed online, as we have done the past few months...



I wouldn't go full Mao myself, but it'd be easy to start with some of the worst and most problematic stuff l mentioned, and museums and live music wouldn't be that, infact we could and should have more of that when everyone has more time for creative pursuits. These shifts would all need to be financially supported though so most people personally don't lose out, and accompanied by a massively pushed campaign to explain why it's happening.

<Early morning coffee fueled benevolent dictator musings.>


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (Aug 12, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I wouldn't go full Mao myself, but it'd be easy to start with some of the worst and most problematic stuff l mentioned, and museums and live music wouldn't be that, infact we could and should have more of that when everyone has more time for creative pursuits. These shifts would all need to be financially supported though so most people personally don't lose out, and accompanied by a massively pushed campaign to explain why it's happening.
> 
> <Early morning coffee fueled benevolent dictator musings.>



Re live music; my eldest was due to see My Chemical Romance in Dublin and Billie Elish in Paris in May and July this year, how could she do that if the travel industry is dismantled? How indeed could those acts get to Europe from the US?


----------



## LDC (Aug 12, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> Re live music; my eldest was due to see My Chemical Romance in Dublin and Billie Elish in Paris in May and July this year, how could she do that if the travel industry is dismantled? How indeed could those acts get to Europe from the US?



I'm not suggesting no travel at all, but I do think traveling to see gigs by planes twice in 3 months (if I get you?) is something that's a ridiculous situation that's a result of the way society is set up now, and is easily within the ability of humanity to sort out. More local venues, fewer but longer tours to play these, whatever...

But yes, I think the uncomfortable position is there are some things we're going to have to stop doing (or do much, much less) but the positives we'll gain in return will far outweigh the things we'll give up. And I don't think people should feel bad or be told off for doing them now at all, we all do things like that (or similar) but we do need to move away from that to something better, and maybe this catastrophe is the best chance we have?

Anyway, sorry it's a bit of a derail, probably should go in the coronavirus remaking our economy thread or somewhere like that.


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (Aug 12, 2020)

Plane to Dublin, Eurostar to Paris.
Smaller venues will encourage more travelling though, if My Chemical Romance played Wembley Stadium she may have been able to get a ticket, but they were booked in to a smaller gaff in Milton Keynes and the tickets were all gone within minutes (tours are another issue) so she could only get a ticket for their Dublin show...


----------



## LDC (Aug 12, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> Plane to Dublin, Eurostar to Paris.
> Smaller venues will encourage more travelling though, if My Chemical Romance played Wembley Stadium she may have been able to get a ticket, but they were booked in to a smaller gaff in Milton Keynes and the tickets were all gone within minutes (tours are another issue) so she could only get a ticket for their Dublin show...



Like I said, not beyond the ability of humanity to come up with solutions. And that the music and the entertainment industry might have to change, but let's deal with the bigger stuff first; food production, work patterns, local and regional travel, healthcare, education, defence, etc.


----------



## two sheds (Aug 12, 2020)

More live streaming to large screen, high sound quality outdoor venues?


----------



## SpineyNorman (Aug 12, 2020)

Maybe we'll see drive in cinemas in the UK at last? Always liked the sound of that even without the pandemic


----------



## Brainaddict (Aug 12, 2020)

return of caleb said:


> Oof. Hasn't aged well in only a few hours. Four new cases in New Zealand from no known source.
> 
> The reality of the suppression vs. eradication debate as it's been played out in the Antipodes is that coronavirus wasn't really 'here' the first time around; I think that context is often lost when New Zealand or - until recently - Australia's success is compared to the criminal handling of the pandemic by the British government.
> 
> ...


I don't think 4 or 5 new cases invalidates New Zealand's model. They've still saved a lot of lives and their economy is still nowhere near as depressed as ours. I imagine they'll re-open Auckland again and be back to normal long before us.

The 'social implications' you vaguely alude to seem to me to be much lower than the UK - New Zealanders have been living normal lives until this Auckland lockdown.

I don't know about their ability to track and trace new cases but I imagine they're doing better than the UK or they would be having cases pop up all over. Have they been proven to be bad at this?

It's true that NZ never really had it in a widespread way, but that was partly due to implementing border quarantine quite quickly, while the UK took literally months to come up with any border quarantine process. It wasn't outside the control of governments whether they got widespread community transmission - with the exception perhaps of Italy, which was the canary in the coalmine.


----------



## Chz (Aug 12, 2020)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> Cos the company might well go bust?


They're mainly paying by credit card and expect to Section 75 it. Which is what they successfully did back in March when the company was refusing refunds.

Payment by cheque, transfer, etc. is way down, even from the people who usually like to show off that they bank with Coutts.


----------



## return of caleb (Aug 13, 2020)

Brainaddict said:


> I don't think 4 or 5 new cases invalidates New Zealand's model. They've still saved a lot of lives and their economy is still nowhere near as depressed as ours. I imagine they'll re-open Auckland again and be back to normal long before us.
> 
> The 'social implications' you vaguely alude to seem to me to be much lower than the UK - New Zealanders have been living normal lives until this Auckland lockdown.
> 
> ...



I think it invalidates New Zealand's model in the sense that there is no such thing as eradication until a vaccine is developed - no man, or nation, is an island unto himself and all that, and the NZ experience - even if the numbers remain low - shows that the possibility of the virus being totally eradicated within national borders is incredibly fragile.

Remember, I was quoting you saying you now think NZ might have had it right all along and that might be the way to go, so when I talk of 'social implications' I'm referring to the social implications of implementing such a strategy _now, _in countries that aren't small islands with five million people at the end of the world. It's not just about political will: such a strategy could only be pursued and enforced with incredibly punitive measures internally and externally, for potentially a long period of time (until a vaccine is developed).


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 13, 2020)

They think it came in on an infected frozen package dont they?


----------



## return of caleb (Aug 13, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> They think it came in on an infected frozen package dont they?



That's what they're saying at the moment. It seems a bit far fetched but the connection is that the first case identified was a guy who worked in frieghting - the thing is, we know from the nature of that work that it's an environment where the virus spreads easily.

Nine cases now. They're opening up tests to the wider community.


----------



## Brainaddict (Aug 13, 2020)

return of caleb said:


> I think it invalidates New Zealand's model in the sense that there is no such thing as eradication until a vaccine is developed - no man, or nation, is an island unto himself and all that, and the NZ experience - even if the numbers remain low - shows that the possibility of the virus being totally eradicated within national borders is incredibly fragile.
> 
> Remember, I was quoting you saying you now think NZ might have had it right all along and that might be the way to go, so when I talk of 'social implications' I'm referring to the social implications of implementing such a strategy _now, _in countries that aren't small islands with five million people at the end of the world. It's not just about political will: such a strategy could only be pursued and enforced with incredibly punitive measures internally and externally, for potentially a long period of time (until a vaccine is developed).


I think everyone knows that no suppression strategy can be perfect and that the virus will pop up here and there whatever you do. That's a lot better than accepting a constant stream of deaths because you think you can avoid economic damage (you can't, as the UK has shown).

I suspect the rate in the UK is low enough that we could do proper suppression without going back into full lockdown, just doing a few area-specific ones. It would require extremely good tracing by a well-trained, non-privatised workforce, rapid testing, enforceable quarantining (punitive but very selectively so rather than across whole population), and - the one they want to avoid - proper quarantining at the border. I don't think this latter is too high a price to pay myself. International holidays=higher death rate at the moment. We can live without them for a bit longer. 

I don't think most people would feel the impact of a proper suppression regime except for actually having to register their presence in pubs, trains etc - which is stupidly optional at the moment. If you had been in a room with someone who had covid then you would feel the full extent of the regime, but remember that's only those who've met a thousand or so people a day and would drop very quickly once proper tracing was happening.


----------



## return of caleb (Aug 13, 2020)

Brainaddict said:


> I think everyone knows that no suppression strategy can be perfect and that the virus will pop up here and there whatever you do. That's a lot better than accepting a constant stream of deaths because you think you can avoid economic damage (you can't, as the UK has shown).
> 
> I suspect the rate in the UK is low enough that we could do proper suppression without going back into full lockdown, just doing a few area-specific ones. It would require extremely good tracing by a well-trained, non-privatised workforce, rapid testing, enforceable quarantining (punitive but very selectively so rather than across whole population), and - the one they want to avoid - proper quarantining at the border. I don't think this latter is too high a price to pay myself. International holidays=higher death rate at the moment. We can live without them for a bit longer.
> 
> I don't think most people would feel the impact of a proper suppression regime except for actually having to register their presence in pubs, trains etc - which is stupidly optional at the moment. If you had been in a room with someone who had covid then you would feel the full extent of the regime, but remember that's only those who've met a thousand or so people a day and would drop very quickly once proper tracing was happening.



I think we're possibly talking at cross purposes here because for the most part... I agree. The difference is you're talking about NZ as an example of successful 'suppression strategy', whereas here (in the Antipodes...) it's being touted as something else -- as an _eradication_ strategy, i.e. what can happen if we completely lockdown again for an undisclosed period of time, and lock our borders indefinitely. There are Australian commentators who are saying 'no, look, our suppression strategy is wrong - it's complete eradication or nothing, like NZ'. Perhaps that's the context that's missing.

I personally disagree on the borders thing -- I think it's more complex; particularly living Down Under with a very hard border closure, when my immediate family are in the UK and Ireland. My partner and I were meant to be boarding a flight to visit my family and go to her sister's wedding in Greece tomorrow: not happening. And many other families are in the same position, and there's no answer on when international travel will be allowed again. I certainly don't think it should be a free for all! but that kind of thing does take its toll - particularly in a country where 3/10 people are born abroad.


----------



## Mation (Aug 14, 2020)

Apologies if we've had this already; it's a pre-print paper from May, which seems like a long time ago, now. Pre-prints are not yet peer reviewed, but it seems like a reasonable study in my non-expert* opinion.









						Systemic and mucosal antibody secretion specific to SARS-CoV-2 during mild versus severe COVID-19
					

Background Infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes an acute illness termed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Humoral immune responses likely play an important role in containing SARS-CoV-2, however, the determinants of SARS-CoV-2-specific...




					www.biorxiv.org
				




The researchers tested for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the blood, snot, tears and saliva of:

covid-19 patients with mild or severe disease
healthcare workers who had been riskily exposed to patients with confirmed covid-19.
The healthcare workers either reported having symptoms or having none.

I think two of their results were especially interesting. The researchers found that:

some people had antibodies in their mucous even though none could be found in their blood
the antibody response in mucous decreased with age.
They think this could be why children have mild or no symptoms: they fight it off in the eyes, nose and throat, so it doesn't have a chance to get into the rest of the body.

This is also interesting to me personally as I had a negative blood test result today, but still think I may have had it, confined largely to my eyes. (And was looking for evidence that I am correct!  )

* Spotted my "nob-expert" typo just in time!


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 14, 2020)

Peru surpasses 500,000 coronavirus cases, marks highest fatality rate in LatAm
					

Peru surpassed half a million coronavirus cases and has the highest fatality rate in Latin America, according to health ministry data on Thursday, as the government struggles to contain a recent surge of infections.




					uk.reuters.com


----------



## spitfire (Aug 14, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> They think it came in on an infected frozen package dont they?



I posted this on another thread but looks like it may be worth dropping in here as well.



spitfire said:


> *reply to Yu Gi Oh * I appreciate you aren't in the UK but just going to latch onto this post for some input.
> 
> I manufacture food for a living and get the Food Standards Agency emails that recall (potentially) dodgy food. I haven't seen any that have been recalled because they are COVID infected. Normally they recall food just on the _off chance_ it is contaminated or has foreign bodies in it. If it was going through the food supply chain we'd be surely looking at many times the magnitude of cases we currently have?
> 
> ...


----------



## Supine (Aug 14, 2020)

Duke University have released an online calculator for schools to determine risk of infection in a classroom setting...





__





						COVID exposure modeler
					






					covid-exposure-modeler-data-devils.cloud.duke.edu


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Aug 14, 2020)

Have we had this yet?









						Scientists say social distancing 'isn't helpful' as evidence mounts that coronavirus is airborne
					

'For aerosol-based transmission, measures such as physical distancing by six feet would not be helpful in an indoor setting'




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Teaboy (Aug 14, 2020)

Mr.Bishie said:


> Have we had this yet?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That all kind of makes sense to me.  It fits with what we know about high risk things such as pubs etc.  Really good ventilation seems so important to me and that is the worry going into Autumn and Winter.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 15, 2020)

Coronavirus: Kiwis outside of Auckland mocked, laughed at for wearing face masks
					

Northland woman was left humiliated after being laughed at and mocked for wearing a face mask.




					www.stuff.co.nz
				




 

Really hope new New Zealand can bring it under control.


----------



## 8ball (Aug 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> Duke University have released an online calculator for schools to determine risk of infection in a classroom setting...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Because modelling has worked oh so great so far...


----------



## 8ball (Aug 15, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Coronavirus: Kiwis outside of Auckland mocked, laughed at for wearing face masks
> 
> 
> Northland woman was left humiliated after being laughed at and mocked for wearing a face mask.
> ...



The virus, or the social issues around masks?
I think the latter might be easier than the former.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 15, 2020)

8ball said:


> The virus, or the social issues around masks?
> I think the latter might be easier than the former.



The virus.


----------



## 8ball (Aug 15, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> The virus.



Fair enough.
It doesn’t make me happy to say, but my feeling, based on the way this virus seems to snap back to a fairly typical propagation model in general, regardless of measures (with  perhaps a few exceptions so far), is that it is likely to do what it does, with any measures only having a slowing effect.

Time will tell.  I’d be very happy to be wrong. It’s a bit of a depressing thought.

On the bright side: I’m not a virologist..


----------



## Supine (Aug 15, 2020)

8ball said:


> Because modelling has worked oh so great so far...



Modelling has been very useful so far. If you expect all models to be perfect you've set your expectation too high.


----------



## 8ball (Aug 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> Modelling has been very useful so far. If you expect all models to be perfect you've set your expectation too high.



Modelling has failed on many counts so far. I work in the area and am well aware of the limitations, as well as how seductive it can be to those looking for pat answers.


----------



## two sheds (Aug 15, 2020)

8ball said:


> Modelling has failed on many counts so far. I work in the area and am well aware of the limitations, as well as how seductive it can be to those looking for pat answers.



The one instance I saw (after the fact rather than modeling) was the virus being spread being virtually all along the air flow in the office, with very little on other floors of the building despite people touching same bannisters, lift buttons etc. That sort of modeling would seem valuable?


----------



## 8ball (Aug 15, 2020)

two sheds said:


> The one instance I saw (after the fact rather than modeling) was the virus being spread being virtually all along the air flow in the office, with very little on other floors of the building despite people touching same bannisters, lift buttons etc. That sort of modeling would seem valuable?



That doesn’t really seem like modelling
unless we are taking a really broad definition.  Yes, these were real-world examples that we learned from, but they are a different thing to the detailed mathematical modelling that has let us down on some occasions. 

We can start with the outdatrd influenza-based modelling (basically a model lifted from over a decade ago using a completely different virus model) that filled in a lot of unknowns with assumptions and led to the early “herd immunity” plans if you want to go into detail.  That is easily Googlable.  It helped to foment this whole shambles.

Models can provide useful insights but are not a replacement for empirical science, and those commissioning them are very prone to saying “just give me a number”, without any willingness to appreciate the inherent limitations.

More specifically,the particular model referenced here, quite aside from the implicit assumptions, has a whole bunch of parameters you need to input.  Assuming the model is near perfect (which is ridiculously charitable), where are you getting the input parameters from?


----------



## two sheds (Aug 15, 2020)

8ball said:


> That doesn’t really seem like modelling
> unless we are taking a really broad definition.  Yes, these were real-world examples that we learned from, but they are a different thing to the detailed mathematical modelling that has let us down on some occasions.
> 
> We can start with the outdatrd influenza-based modelling (basically a model lifted from over a decade ago using a completely different virus model) that filled in a lot of unknowns with assumptions and led to the early “herd immunity” plans if you want to go into detail.  That is easily Googlable.
> ...



Yes indeed not modeling at all, but seems the way to update/perform your (small-scale) modeling of buildings to reduce transmission.


----------



## 8ball (Aug 15, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Yes indeed not modeling at all, but seems the way to update/perform your (small-scale) modeling of buildings to reduce transmission.



Sure, not arguing with that.  More talking about these mathematical projections that give a sense of “science” while relying on inputs that are conjecture at best.


----------



## two sheds (Aug 15, 2020)

8ball said:


> More specifically,the particular model referenced here, quite aside from the implicit assumptions, has a whole bunch of parameters you need to input.  Assuming the model is near perfect (which is ridiculously charitable), where are you getting the input parameters from?



Sorry, don't understand that bit. Input paramaters such as?

Was also going to say the example I gave is going to have to be built into all office (etc) air-conditioning systems. Almost needs the exhaust air outlet to be directly above every occupant, but even then you're drawing air in from around so if someone's next to you, you could still be breathing in their droplets. Not sure how displacement ventilation would affect that, too.

Eta: does look like it reduces problem rather than having air flow past lots of people, and apparently used a lot in Scandinavian countries. Wonder if that affected transmission rates within offices/industrial buildings in Sweden?


----------



## 8ball (Aug 15, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Sorry, don't understand that bit. Input paramaters such as?



Such as all of the input parameters in the model Supine refereed to.


----------



## two sheds (Aug 15, 2020)

ok ta. I did look at the spreadsheet and searched 'input' but can't see examples. Are they things like number of students, spacial separation, whether they have masks, things like that?


----------



## 8ball (Aug 15, 2020)

two sheds said:


> ok ta. I did look at the spreadsheet and searched 'input' but can't see examples. Are they things like number of students, spacial separation, whether they have masks, things like that?



The fist point I see in the instructions starts with "specify input parameters". 

But yeah, all of that and more, it seems to be based on a fluid dynamics model (would need someone closer to the subject to confirm that).


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 15, 2020)

two sheds said:


> The one instance I saw (after the fact rather than modeling) was the virus being spread being virtually all along the air flow in the office, with very little on other floors of the building despite people touching same bannisters, lift buttons etc. That sort of modeling would seem valuable?


I think in the terms 8ball is thinking, that is a descriptive model - ie take real-world data and create a 'reconstruction scene' to show how the virus spread in that particular environment. Very useful, of course, as it shows how the virus is likely to spread in similar environments.

I think the models 8ball is thinking of that have failed to varying degrees have been the predictive ones, where a bunch of data regarding infection rates have been input into a mathematical model of spread to see what will happen in the future but without any real-world examples to draw on where what is predicted has actually happened. 

The Imperial 'risk of 300k deaths' model falls into this category. And in terms of the input parameters that weren't quite right, a few I can think of are asymptomatic cases, the pattern of superspreader spread, and - probably the biggie - the assumption of 100% vulnerability of the population at the start. Just taking that last bit, there is growing evidence that not everyone is vulnerable to getting sick with C19, either cos they already have the T-Cells to fight it off or because they fight it off at the exterior of their bodies. Either they get high infection levels but fight it off without the need for new antibodies, or they just don't let it get a proper foothold in their bodies in the first place. Exactly how many such people there are makes an enormous difference to that headline '300k' figure.

I'd be interested to know how Imperial have adjusted their model over time as new information has come to light. The best models are those that update themselves in a Bayesian way - adjusting the parameters as new real-world data is fed in. One such is that of Karl Friston, of 'dark matter' fame. Friston's numbers work best when assuming high levels of non-susceptibility. Even then you have to be cautious cos that might not be the only explanation, but he predicted some of the subsequent findings of resistance which lends his model some credibility. 

This sums up the approach



> Intuitively, this means one is trying to optimise probabilistic beliefs—about the unknown quantities generating some data—such that the (marginal) likelihood of those data is as large as possible. The marginal likelihood2 or model evidence can always be expressed as _accuracy_ minus _complexity_. This means that the best models provide an accurate account of some data as _simply as possible_. Therefore, the model with the highest evidence is not necessarily a description of the process generating data: rather, it is the simplest description that provides an accurate account of those data. In short, it is ‘as if’ the data were generated by this kind of model. Importantly, models with the highest evidence will generalise to new data and preclude overfitting, or overconfident predictions about outcomes that have yet to be measured. In light of this, it is imperative to select the parameters or models that maximise model evidence or variational free energy (as opposed to goodness of fit or accuracy). However, this requires the estimation of the uncertainty about model parameters and states, which is necessary to evaluate the (marginal) likelihood of the data at hand. This is why estimating uncertainty is crucial. Being able to score a model—in terms of its evidence—means that one can compare different models of the same data. This is known as _Bayesian model comparison_ and plays an important role when testing different models or hypotheses about how the data are caused. We will see examples of this later. This aspect of dynamic causal modelling means that one does not have to commit to a particular form (i.e., parameterisation) of a model. Rather, one can explore a repertoire of plausible models and let the data decide which is the most apt.



If I understand it correctly, the way it differs from many other models is that it doesn't assume causes. Rather, it creates a range of predictions, then compares them to the real data to determine which is the most likely to have the most accurate parameters, and from there it infers causes.


----------



## elbows (Aug 15, 2020)

How exactly to you determine that 300,000 would not have died if we had no lockdown and other measures? I just dont really understand how the predictions of how many would die if action wasnt taken can be tested at this stage given that we did take action.


----------



## elbows (Aug 15, 2020)

Anyway the main reason in my book for why worst case death predictions in pandemics are unlikely to ever come fully true is that people will always take action at some point. Because even if a particular government does absolutely nothing at all to mitigate a pandemic, once deaths reach a certain level people take matters into their own hands, modify their behaviours and reduce deaths that way.

And even if we ended up in a situation where somehow the fear stemming from all the deaths didnt kick in, business as usual still doesnt happen in a pandemic because at the height of epidemics the number of staff absences from various important jobs tends to increase to a level that causes service disruption, further modifying peoples routines and behaviours.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 15, 2020)

elbows said:


> How exactly to you determine that 300,000 would not have died if we had no lockdown and other measures? I just dont really understand how the predictions of how many would die if action wasnt taken can be tested at this stage given that we did take action.


By adjusting your assumptions based on the new knowledge and rerunning the numbers in the new model. 

tbh I'm not interested in criticising or handing out blame for models that proved to be wrong. We have a lot more information now, so models should be a lot better. I'm more interested in what that means for what should be done from now onwards.


----------



## Maltin (Aug 15, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> By adjusting your assumptions based on the new knowledge and rerunning the numbers in the new model.
> 
> tbh I'm not interested in criticising or handing out blame for models that proved to be wrong. We have a lot more information now, so models should be a lot better. I'm more interested in what that means for what should be done from now onwards.


How has it proved to be wrong?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 15, 2020)

Maltin said:


> How has it proved to be wrong?


As I said above, there is growing evidence that its assumption of 100% vulnerability is wrong, possibly by a very large margin. That changes the numbers hugely wrt that 300k headline figure, and it potentially changes what we ought to be doing now as it means the numbers with antibodies are only one subset of those who have been exposed to the virus. 

I'm not even saying that it was wrong to act on this model's predictions back in March. Given the state of knowledge then, it was quite possibly the prudent thing to do. But you can't continue to act as if it were right as the evidence mounts that it isn't. Sadly, public political discourse in the UK rarely allows for that kind of nuance, though.


----------



## 8ball (Aug 15, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> By adjusting your assumptions based on the new knowledge and rerunning the numbers in the new model.
> 
> tbh I'm not interested in criticising or handing out blame for models that proved to be wrong. We have a lot more information now, so models should be a lot better. I'm more interested in what that means for what should be done from now onwards.



I think there is some cross-thread leakage going on here (where I asked a question about the graph showing excess deaths) so let’s not get too derailed.

I agree with your later point about how our discourse limits discussion and action.  Maybe it’s something we’ll learn from at some point.

Not sure if there has been a misinterpretation but to be clear, I think based on what evidence was coming through at the time, we should have locked down sooner.


----------



## elbows (Aug 15, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> As I said above, there is growing evidence that its assumption of 100% vulnerability is wrong, possibly by a very large margin. That changes the numbers hugely wrt that 300k headline figure, and it potentially changes what we ought to be doing now as it means the numbers with antibodies are only one subset of those who have been exposed to the virus.
> 
> I'm not even saying that it was wrong to act on this model's predictions back in March. Given the state of knowledge then, it was quite possibly the prudent thing to do. But you can't continue to act as if it were right as the evidence mounts that it isn't. Sadly, public political discourse in the UK rarely allows for that kind of nuance, though.



There was very little talk of 'vulnerability rate', rather it was the 'attack rate' and overall proportion of population that the models expected to ultimately be infected in a situation where there was zero mitigation or behavioural changes that got most of the attention. And nothing that I read back then ever came out with 100% for that. The numbers that ended up being mentioned in press conferences of the time were more like 70-80% if we did no mitigation. Lets look at what the Imperial College model said:



> In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour, we would expect a peak in mortality (daily deaths) to occur after approximately 3 months (Figure 1A). In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic. Epidemic timings are approximate given the limitations of surveillance data in both countries.



(from https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf )

Theres loads of assumptions and data that was fed into models back then that would be a bit different if we repeated the exercise now, that much is true. And it does my head in that as far as the most famous UK model was concerned, I dont think I've seen much in the way of the exercise being repeated later with a refined set of assumptions and inputs. I'm going to try to look into this myself more but it doesnt seem to be very easy to find stuff beyond the first key month. When it comes to timing errors its quite easy to see that the Imperial Colleges timing estimates were all wrong when it came to the UK, because the surveillance data they fed into it was crap and if the excuse in some SAGE minutes is anything to go by, they also failed to correct for data timing lags when feeding that data into their model. The rest of what was wrong is far less easy to establish. I would also like to update my sense of hospitalisation %ages so far in different age groups, as thats important stuff. And we know that a lot of assumptions about what proportion of cases would be asymptomatic, and the role of asymptomatic cases in transmission, were probably quite far wide of the mark. But I havent seen many attempts to calculate the implications of this. Whats happened to those various academics etc from various disciplines who produced alternative pictures from the start, which were then often used by those who wanted to argue against lockdown? Are they still out there, producing new work? Because if the things you are suggesting have really already been proven wrong, I would expect them to seize on that and run updated calculations that serve their point of view. I havent looked recently, so maybe they have, in which case I would like someone to point it out.

As with some of our previous discussions I do understand where you are coming from regarding the immunity picture. Unlike you I am utterly unclear as to what exactly has been proven on this front so far, given that there has been mitigation and behavioural changes which mean we have not had a view of an unmitigated pandemic wave. And if you want modelling to take account of what you think has been shown on this front, you need to have some alternative numbers to feed in, and a sense of why those numbers are better than the original estimates. Its no good just saying that the 100% vulnerability assumption was wrong, without providing an alternative number or at least a reasonable range. And then you actually have to go and look at exactly if and how such a number was actually used by the models in the first place.


----------



## Mation (Aug 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> There was very little talk of 'vulnerability rate', rather it was the 'attack rate' and overall proportion of population that the models expected to ultimately be infected in a situation where there was zero mitigation or behavioural changes that got most of the attention. And nothing that I read back then ever came out with 100% for that. The numbers that ended up being mentioned in press conferences of the time were more like 70-80% if we did no mitigation. Lets look at what the Imperial College model said:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think you're talking at cross purposes.


----------



## elbows (Aug 16, 2020)

Mation said:


> I think you're talking at cross purposes.



In what way? I would address the 100% vulnerability thing more directly if there was more science with actual numbers we could actually fed into these models. As I've said to littlebabyjesus before, I am interested in the immunity picture and the possible answers for some of the large gaps in our knowledge. Its just I dont think much is proven on this front, there are just some interesting possibilities that would change some key equations if we could have great confidence that they were true. But how do we actually establish they are true? I believe someone who has more pure faith in these possibilities than me would have presented the solid evidence during these discussions if it was actually available. Until such knowledge is forthcoming, I'm going to end up at odds with that sort of stance, because it would be negligent for governments to act as if it were true, and the sort of relaxations people are angling for when they make these claims are deeply suspect and inappropriate to me at this stage of the pandemic. There will come a time when even a cautious sense of the picture will be different to how it is now, and so I hedge my bets for good reason. But I'm not going out on a limb that would leave populations vulnerable to a nasty second wave if those with an optimistic view of immunity and population susceptibility didnt turn out to have gotten it right. If they could provide a nice methodology where their ideas can be tested and where enough wiggle room is left that there is still time to put the brakes back on if reality demonstrates their assumptions were faulty, then I would try to accommodate such a plan and wouldnt necessarily be highly critical o it.

Plus we already have a situation where countries have tried relaxing stuff, its not like the level of caution is keeping everyone in a full lockdown for months longer than necessary. So its not like people calling for more relaxations and less fear are only going for the low-hanging fruit, and so I'm going to give them something of a hard time as they seem to want a degree of normality that would be absolutely absurd at the moment. And sometimes people want to have their cake and eat it - eg if you believe that draconian stuff can be avoided by doing well with things like track & trace, then you should also come to understand what that means for the range of case levels we can tolerate. In the past the message was all about keeping cases down to a level that wouldnt overwhelm the NHS, but in this current phase what they have to do is keep the number of cases, clusters etc down to a level that contact tracing systems can actually handle. And be prepared to concede that fresh restrictions are necessary for specific scenarios if your contact tracing system keeps finding problems and lots of transmission in those scenarios.

Nor should anybody expect that I am going to buy into a sales pitch where the idea that superspreaders are responsible for a huge chunk of the infections is somehow a reason to relax stuff and allow a broader range of behaviours and interactions.


----------



## elbows (Aug 16, 2020)

Having said all that, I do intend to stop repeating that sort of thing every time the subject comes up, and I am currently trying to prepare myself to delve back into reading the more recent research science. Because it is entirely possible I have missed some key finding in recent months, but I need to see them in proper research paper form to get my teeth into real detail. I think it will take a few weeks before I really get going on this, and I have to say I'm not terribly optimistic about how much stuff I will find.


----------



## Mation (Aug 16, 2020)

elbows said:


> In what way? I would address the 100% vulnerability thing more directly if there was more science with actual numbers we could actually fed into these models. As I've said to littlebabyjesus before, I am interested in the immunity picture and the possible answers for some of the large gaps in our knowledge. Its just I dont think much is proven on this front, there are just some interesting possibilities that would change some key equations if we could have great confidence that they were true. But how do we actually establish they are true? I believe someone who has more pure faith in these possibilities than me would have presented the solid evidence during these discussions if it was actually available. Until such knowledge is forthcoming, I'm going to end up at odds with that sort of stance, because it would be negligent for governments to act as if it were true, and the sort of relaxations people are angling for when they make these claims are deeply suspect and inappropriate to me at this stage of the pandemic. There will come a time when even a cautious sense of the picture will be different to how it is now, and so I hedge my bets for good reason. But I'm not going out on a limb that would leave populations vulnerable to a nasty second wave if those with an optimistic view of immunity and population susceptibility didnt turn out to have gotten it right. If they could provide a nice methodology where their ideas can be tested and where enough wiggle room is left that there is still time to put the brakes back on if reality demonstrates their assumptions were faulty, then I would try to accommodate such a plan and wouldnt necessarily be highly critical o it.
> 
> Plus we already have a situation where countries have tried relaxing stuff, its not like the level of caution is keeping everyone in a full lockdown for months longer than necessary. So its not like people calling for more relaxations and less fear are only going for the low-hanging fruit, and so I'm going to give them something of a hard time as they seem to want a degree of normality that would be absolutely absurd at the moment. And sometimes people want to have their cake and eat it - eg if you believe that draconian stuff can be avoided by doing well with things like track & trace, then you should also come to understand what that means for the range of case levels we can tolerate. In the past the message was all about keeping cases down to a level that wouldnt overwhelm the NHS, but in this current phase what they have to do is keep the number of cases, clusters etc down to a level that contact tracing systems can actually handle. And be prepared to concede that fresh restrictions are necessary for specific scenarios if your contact tracing system keeps finding problems and lots of transmission in those scenarios.
> 
> Nor should anybody expect that I am going to buy into a sales pitch where the idea that superspreaders are responsible for a huge chunk of the infections is somehow a reason to relax stuff and allow a broader range of behaviours and interactions.


Well apart from anything else, I think you've taken on a huge burden of responsibility, that must be difficult and heavy to carry. These aren't decisions that you have to make. We're not going to suffer if you 'get something wrong'. It's ok not to have every datum or to have taken it all into consideration. It's not your job to keep us all safe. Go a bit easier on yourself, eh? x


----------



## elbows (Aug 16, 2020)

Fear not, I dont feel much of a burden these days. There was a time burden in the first months, and I did claim that I would do everything I could not to destroy my own credibility in those first months, that I wanted to take positions that would stand the test of time. But I also told people not to put me on a pedestal, and to check my facts, and that when I look back at some messages from the early months I have some regrets and made certain mistakes. 

The fact is I enjoy these discussions most of the time, right up until I hit some kind of temporary personal limit and have to take a break from certain angles. The words tend to pour out of me when I can react to other peoples angles, in a way that never seems to happen for me if I am talking about my own stance in a vacuum. And even if I bump into opinions I find frustrating, I often use them as an opportunity to get my own thoughts in order and see if I can talk any sense about the detail. 

The main risk for me is that eventually I start to bore myself, which is why I'm hoping to add something new by hopefully finding some interesting science in the weeks ahead. Thanks for thinking of me anyway but dont worry, since although I developed some sense of responsibility in this pandemic there are very definite limits that stop me from getting carried away with the idea. People are generally rather clued up about the pandemic these days, if I stopped posting tomorrow then I dont think it would matter, not unless some very dangerous ideas were in the ascendence and were going largely unopposed and at the moment I dont see any signs of that.


----------



## spring-peeper (Aug 16, 2020)

hmmm - it would be nice if our flu seasons are mild.










						Coronavirus prevention crushed Australia’s flu season. Can Canada expect the same? - National | Globalnews.ca
					

As Canada prepares to battle both influenza and the coronavirus this fall, we can look south for clues on what might happen.




					globalnews.ca
				






> It’s the peak of flu season in Australia. At least it should be.
> 
> Usually, flu season runs through Australia’s winter — Canada’s summer — and officials look to Australia for clues on what Canada’s upcoming flu season could look like in terms of strains, caseload and severity.
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Aug 17, 2020)

Its a shame they didnt figure this out the first time:


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 17, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its a shame they didnt figure this out the first time:





The state of some of the comments


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 17, 2020)

“All These Rich People Can’t Stop Themselves”: The Luxe Quarantine Lives of Silicon Valley’s Elite
					

Travis Kalanick is throwing (outdoor) parties, private-jet owners are hopping from safe zone to safe zone, and dinner party hosts are administering 15-minute COVID-19 rapid tests—all business as usual. “Coronavirus is a poor person’s virus,” says one source.




					www.vanityfair.com
				




Coronavirus is a poor person's virus apparently


----------



## Supine (Aug 17, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> “All These Rich People Can’t Stop Themselves”: The Luxe Quarantine Lives of Silicon Valley’s Elite
> 
> 
> Travis Kalanick is throwing (outdoor) parties, private-jet owners are hopping from safe zone to safe zone, and dinner party hosts are administering 15-minute COVID-19 rapid tests—all business as usual. “Coronavirus is a poor person’s virus,” says one source.
> ...



That's a link and a half!


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 17, 2020)

Supine said:


> That's a link and a half!



I fixed it now, sorry.


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Aug 18, 2020)

Mutated coronavirus may be less deadly, expert suggests
					

Singapore infectious disease doctor says evidence suggests spread of D614G mutation coincided with drop in death rates.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 18, 2020)

Mr.Bishie said:


> Mutated coronavirus may be less deadly, expert suggests
> 
> 
> Singapore infectious disease doctor says evidence suggests spread of D614G mutation coincided with drop in death rates.
> ...



That sounds positive, with luck it will not cause serious health issues too. It would be great if it ended-up being like more common coronaviruses, often labeled as the common cold.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 18, 2020)

Meanwhile in Spain, where the average daily new cases have gone up from around 200 to over 4,600, thousands of anti-vaxxers and other associated nutters held a protest in Madrid against covid restrictions.   





> *“Anger and sadness” is what Belen Padilla, a doctor and the vice president of the College of Doctors of Madrid”, recalls feeling when witnessing the images of thousands of anti-COVID protesters.* Around 2,500 people gathered in the capital’s Plaza de Colon despite the existence of the virus, to demand their ‘freedom and rights’ as Spanish citizens.
> 
> “To deny the scientific evidence is to be an absurd person,” continues Padilla, who tells local news sources that she has not only fought to save the lives of patients infected by COVID but that she was also the victim of the virus that paralyzed the entire country, collapsed hospitals and that threatens to do it again in winter.











						Spain’s Sanitary Staff Tell Anti-Covid Protesters “Come To The Hospital and Watch How the People Die”
					

“Anger and sadness” is what Belen Padilla, a doctor and the vice president of the College of Doctors of Madrid”, recalls feeling when witnessing the




					www.euroweeklynews.com
				






> Chants such as, “there is no fear,” “we want to see the virus” and “we are not criminals, we want to breathe” could be heard at the protest. People have been challenging the Covid-19 security measures without keeping their distance and even hugging each other, the repetitive chant of “long live love, long live life, long live freedom” was also heard.
> 
> Faced with the obligation to wear a mask in order to stop the spread of the virus and in the midst of a wave of outbreaks, the protesters complain that this is a “ridiculous” measure and a “curtailment” of their personal freedoms. The pandemic has been described as “farce” and “lie” by several of the attendees.











						“We’re Not Scared” Hundreds of Anti-Maskers Manifest in Spain’s Madrid to Protest Against Mandatory Face Masks
					

TODAY, hundreds of anti-maskers joined forces at the Plaza de Colon in Spain’s Madrid to protest against having to wear face masks. All the protesters




					www.euroweeklynews.com


----------



## Numbers (Aug 18, 2020)

“we want to see the virus”

FFS, idiots.


----------



## LDC (Aug 18, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Meanwhile in Spain, where the average daily new cases have gone up from around 200 to over 4,600, thousands of anti-vaxxers and other associated nutters held a protest in Madrid against covid restrictions.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




Heard from a friend of mine in Spain that the covid is fake/not as bad as they say/anti-vax stuff is quite big over there. Big hippie health food kind of scene he was partly putting it down to.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 18, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Heard from a friend of mine in Spain that the covid is fake/not as bad as they say/anti-vax stuff is quite big over there. Big hippie health food kind of scene he was partly putting it down to.



They had such a bad time though? Although I guess that was only in certain regions?


----------



## LDC (Aug 18, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> They had such a bad time though? Although I guess that was only in certain regions?



Yeah, I don't know. I guess looking for logic in people's responses can be a difficult task!? Probably for some people it's a way of coping with the fear tbh. Spain does have a sizeable rural hippie thing going on too, who probably had no direct experience of anyone being ill. That and an already existing distrust of the State and large institutions etc. maybe fed into it as well?


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 18, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Yeah, I don't know. I guess looking for logic in people's responses can be a difficult task!? Probably for some people it's a way of coping with the fear tbh. Spain does have a sizeable rural hippie thing going on too, who probably had no direct experience of anyone being ill. That and an already existing distrust of the State and large institutions etc. maybe fed into it as well?



I think for some people it's definitely a way of coping with the fear.


----------



## hash tag (Aug 18, 2020)

From 4 months ago Manager at major UK food supplier says staff who stay at home may be sacked
fast forward to today Dessert factory coronavirus cases rise to 72
bastards.


----------



## elbows (Aug 18, 2020)

Mr.Bishie said:


> Mutated coronavirus may be less deadly, expert suggests
> 
> 
> Singapore infectious disease doctor says evidence suggests spread of D614G mutation coincided with drop in death rates.
> ...



For context, this is the same mutation that we have heard about since quite early on. So there are a lot of articles about it so far. And its not clear to me that it will have different outcomes to what we saw in the first wave, although I cant quite rule that out completely either.

The UK certainly had both strains for a while but samples from places like France and Italy found mostly the D614G mutated strain. But the amount of gemone samples available in those countries was a lot lower.

If the terminology causes confusion, Im under the impression that D614G means the D switched to a G, so its not unusual to see that strain also labelled as G614.

Below is from https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30820-5


----------



## Petcha (Aug 18, 2020)

I caught a glimpse of trump on the news just now claiming the US is handling Covid better than New Zealand. Rather random. And er, a bit wrong perhaps?


----------



## Cloo (Aug 18, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> “All These Rich People Can’t Stop Themselves”: The Luxe Quarantine Lives of Silicon Valley’s Elite
> 
> 
> Travis Kalanick is throwing (outdoor) parties, private-jet owners are hopping from safe zone to safe zone, and dinner party hosts are administering 15-minute COVID-19 rapid tests—all business as usual. “Coronavirus is a poor person’s virus,” says one source.
> ...


Rich people in 'able to buy solutions to the rest of the world's problems for themselves' shocker


----------



## Cloo (Aug 18, 2020)

Petcha said:


> I caught a glimpse of trump on the news just now claiming the US is handling Covid better than New Zealand. Rather random. And er, a bit wrong perhaps?


Worse still, but sadly typically, he implied they fought it hard to make some kind of point to him. Because everything revolves around Donnie.


----------



## phillm (Aug 19, 2020)

This looks like one big FU to the world and more pertinently the US from China who have the tools, track and tracing and ruthless authoritarian control to rigorously control the virus. I can't imagine this wasn't allowed unless there was negligible risk.









						Wuhan hosts massive water park party as Covid concerns recede
					

Thousands of Wuhan revelers cram into a water park for outdoor rave more than eight months after Covid-19 was detected at the former ground zero.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 19, 2020)

Yeah I don't think this pool party was a good idea, personally


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Aug 19, 2020)

phillm said:


> This looks like one big FU to the world and more pertinently the US from China who have the tools, track and tracing and ruthless authoritarian control to rigorously control the virus. I can't imagine this wasn't allowed unless there was negligible risk.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It wouldn't be allowed if it wasn't considered low-risk, for sure. Wuhan is low-risk. They tested everyone in the city several months ago, just to be sure. 

Life continues here in China. The universities are starting back up next week, and the freshmen have already arrived on campus. 



frogwoman said:


> Yeah I don't think this pool party was a good idea, personally



Why?


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> It wouldn't be allowed if it wasn't considered low-risk, for sure. Wuhan is low-risk. They tested everyone in the city several months ago, just to be sure.
> 
> Life continues here in China. The universities are starting back up next week, and the freshmen have already arrived on campus.
> 
> ...



Because someone there could have it. Although if the rates are that low it might be OK.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Aug 19, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Because someone there could have it. Although if the rates are that low it might be OK.



They tested all 11 million residents in May and haven't had a case since. The people of Wuhan have been through a lot and I hope they have a great time at the water park.


----------



## phillm (Aug 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> They tested all 11 million residents in May and haven't had a case since. The people of Wuhan have been through a lot and I hope they have a great time at the water park.


Oi Johnson you cunt this is what our world-beating track and trace looks like.


----------



## Numbers (Aug 19, 2020)

phillm said:


> Oi Johnson you cunt this is what our world-beating track and trace looks like.
> 
> View attachment 227143


With shared pen.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> They tested all 11 million residents in May and haven't had a case since. The people of Wuhan have been through a lot and I hope they have a great time at the water park.


I hope so too in that case


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 19, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> They tested all 11 million residents in May and haven't had a case since. The people of Wuhan have been through a lot and I hope they have a great time at the water park.



It must have been a very frightening time. And yeah Wuhan is probably one of the safer places to be at the moment tbh.


----------



## Maltin (Aug 19, 2020)

Numbers said:


> With shared pen.


Come on, there are at least 2 pens!


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 19, 2020)

Oh fuck, 127 deaths in Spain. Really hope this is a backlog of previously unreported cases rather than deaths starting to go up again


----------



## Yossarian (Aug 19, 2020)

phillm said:


> This looks like one big FU to the world and more pertinently the US from China who have the tools, track and tracing and ruthless authoritarian control to rigorously control the virus. I can't imagine this wasn't allowed unless there was negligible risk.
> 
> 
> 
> ...







> Wuhan is what happens when a govt act decisively to crush COVID19: whole city lockdown, hospital build in 7 days, 11 million tested, life returns to normal aft 3 month



Shame the government didn't act decisively to crush COVID-19 a little sooner instead of arresting doctors who tried to raise the alarm and failing to provide the WHO with timely and accurate information, then the whole world would be able to go to waterparks.


----------



## Thora (Aug 19, 2020)

hash tag said:


> From 4 months ago Manager at major UK food supplier says staff who stay at home may be sacked
> fast forward to today Dessert factory coronavirus cases rise to 72
> bastards.


There's a Bakkavor factory near me (nowhere near Nottingham) that is also having an outbreak at the moment.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 19, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Oh fuck, 127 deaths in Spain. Really hope this is a backlog of previously unreported cases rather than deaths starting to go up again



Hopefully so.

Their reporting of deaths seem to a bit all over the place ATM, 26 on the 4th Aug. and 74 on 10th Aug., with only 3 in between those dates.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 19, 2020)

50% of the workforce in the Philippines is out of work! Fuck


----------



## elbows (Aug 19, 2020)

Regarding Spains data, I stopped looking at their numbers when they fucked around with the death figures many months ago. But I had a little look today so I could understand the current state of their data.

My recommendation is to use the deaths by date of death graph thats in the daily report.

eg scroll down a few pages in this one for today: https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesiona...ina/documentos/Actualizacion_188_COVID-19.pdf
Which can be found in future by clicking the link on this page Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social - Profesionales - Situación actual Coronavirus that is labelled like Actualización nº188: enfermedad por SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) 19.08.2020


----------



## Sasaferrato (Aug 19, 2020)

This has probably been posted before.









						Coronavirus Update (Live): 123,838,954 Cases and 2,727,153 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## return of caleb (Aug 19, 2020)

Another depressing Victoria, Australia update: remember that new measure somebody posted about in this thread, captioned 'they don't mess about Down Under' - $20,000 fines for those failing to self-isolate? The statistics that were used to justify that new measure being introduced were skewed: the Victorian premier claimed that over a third of people who were meant to be self-isolating were not doing so, _however_ two weeks later it's been clarified that the vast majority of these cases were either (a) the result of an error with an address, or (b) seeking medical care or exercising, as they were allowed to do at that time under the Chief Health Officer's directive (subsequently changed). Once actually investigated, the percentage of those actually breaking the law was closer 0.8%.

Now here's why it matters:









						How COVID-19 stigma is turning Victorians away from testing
					

Some Victorians are sitting on symptoms for days while others are steering clear of testing altogether.




					www.theage.com.au


----------



## 2hats (Aug 20, 2020)

A sizeable COVID-19 episode on a fishing boat appears to have not infected crew members who already had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. This may be the first direct, clear evidence that such antibodies protect people against being reinfected.

'Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection from SARS-CoV-2 in humans during a fishery vessel outbreak with high attack rate', Addetia, Crawford, Dingens, et al.



> Abstract: The development of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 would be greatly facilitated by the identification of immunological correlates of protection in humans. However, to date, studies on protective immunity have only been performed in animal models and correlates of protection have not been established in humans. Here, we describe an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 on a fishing vessel associated with a high attack rate. Predeparture serological and viral RT-PCR testing along with repeat testing after return to shore was available for 120 of the 122 persons on board over a median follow-up of 32.5 days (range 18.8 to 50.5 days). A total of 104 individuals had an RT-PCR positive viral test with Ct <35 or seroconverted during the follow-up period, yielding an attack rate on board of 85.2% (104/122 individuals). Metagenomic sequencing of 39 viral genomes suggested the outbreak originated largely from a single viral clade. Only three crewmembers tested seropositive prior to the boat's departure in initial serological screening and also had neutralizing and spike-reactive antibodies in follow-up assays. None of these crewmembers with neutralizing antibody titers showed evidence of bona fide viral infection or experienced any symptoms during the viral outbreak. Therefore, the presence of neutralizing antibodies from prior infection was significantly associated with protection against re-infection (Fisher's exact test, p=0.002).


----------



## retribution (Aug 20, 2020)

return of caleb said:


> Another depressing Victoria, Australia update: remember that new measure somebody posted about in this thread, captioned 'they don't mess about Down Under' - $20,000 fines for those failing to self-isolate? The statistics that were used to justify that new measure being introduced were skewed: the Victorian premier claimed that over a third of people who were meant to be self-isolating were not doing so, _however_ two weeks later it's been clarified that the vast majority of these cases were either (a) the result of an error with an address, or (b) seeking medical care or exercising, as they were allowed to do at that time under the Chief Health Officer's directive (subsequently changed). Once actually investigated, the percentage of those actually breaking the law was closer 0.8%.
> 
> Now here's why it matters:
> 
> ...



I don't get this concern about a decline in testing. Surely if everyone is locked up, then we're much less likely to catch anything that resembles COVID symptoms, and therefore less likely to go and get tested?


----------



## sherriff rosco (Aug 20, 2020)

return of caleb said:


> Another depressing Victoria, Australia update: remember that new measure somebody posted about in this thread, captioned 'they don't mess about Down Under' - $20,000 fines for those failing to self-isolate? The statistics that were used to justify that new measure being introduced were skewed: the Victorian premier claimed that over a third of people who were meant to be self-isolating were not doing so, _however_ two weeks later it's been clarified that the vast majority of these cases were either (a) the result of an error with an address, or (b) seeking medical care or exercising, as they were allowed to do at that time under the Chief Health Officer's directive (subsequently changed). Once actually investigated, the percentage of those actually breaking the law was closer 0.8%.
> 
> Now here's why it matters:
> 
> ...




It's not depressing it's just that the initial door knocking of active cases was done by ADF and health workers, with no capacity to follow up. Seems the Police figures reflect reality a bit bettter as they have persued very few cases out of the 3000 that were checked.... 42.

Despite claims hundreds of Victorians are failing to isolate, police say only 42 have been fined

What was more depressing to me living here in Melb was that the run up to Stage 4 restrictions... only about 10% of people were wearing masks out on the street and there was a general " we've been here before, it's easy attitude ! ". But as soon as the threat of a fine was introduced almost everyone is wearing one and being righteous about it !

Still got 3 1/2 weeks of stage 4 to go..... proper stir crazy in our household !

.p.


----------



## two sheds (Aug 20, 2020)

2hats said:


> A sizeable COVID-19 episode on a fishing boat appears to have not infected crew members who already had antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. This may be the first direct, clear evidence that such antibodies protect people against being reinfected.
> 
> 'Neutralizing antibodies correlate with protection from SARS-CoV-2 in humans during a fishery vessel outbreak with high attack rate', Addetia, Crawford, Dingens, et al.



Do they say how long ago the crew members who had antibodies were infected/recovered?

Also first comment on that abstract:



> I'm curious, isnt it possible that the three fishermen who had antibodies prior to departure were in fact the ones who spread it to the rest of the crew?



Although if they did genome testing you'd imagine that would have shown up.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 20, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Do they say how long ago the crew members who had antibodies were infected/recovered?
> 
> Also first comment on that abstract:
> 
> ...


Unlikely. Reading the paper, everyone was tested for C-19 prior to departure, and everyone came back negative, so it is likely someone there had just caught it. The three with neutralising antibodies tested positive for IgG antibodies prior to departure, and these take between 2 and 4 weeks to develop post-infection.



> The sera of the three individuals with neutralizing titers also had high activity in an assay that measure the ability of antibodies to block RBD binding to ACE2, as well as in IgG ELISAs against spike and RBD


----------



## two sheds (Aug 20, 2020)

I'm wondering whether the three had only recently recovered from the virus, though - the study doesn't seem to address how long we can expect antibody protection to last.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 20, 2020)

The FT is doing some good visuals tracking the course of the pandemic worldwide. May be of interest. 

Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as countries fight Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

Shows clearly how the centres of infection have changed over time. More than 60% of deaths are now happening in the Americas. 








They also track excess deaths for the first six months of the year. Clearly some of these countries, particularly in the Americas, are still on the way up, but comparisons can be made between European countries whose first waves of deaths are mostly over. Excess deaths per million shows what seemed very likely early on in this - that the UK would end up a bit worse than Italy, a little less bad than Spain. Startling figures for Peru and Ecuador. Peru, in particular, is an ongoing catastrophe.

There are variations across countries in the difference between excess deaths and the headline covid death figures. In some countries, such as Sweden and Germany, the figures are very similar. In France and Belgium, excess deaths is in fact lower than the headline covid total. In the UK, the Netherlands and Spain, it is significantly higher. Suggests differences in measuring methods perhaps more than anything deeper. I know Belgium was casting its net very broadly at at the start to catch suspected covid deaths.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 20, 2020)

two sheds said:


> I'm wondering whether the three had only recently recovered from the virus, though - the study doesn't seem to address how long we can expect antibody protection to last.


Afaik, there is no documented case of someone with symptomatic covid-19 recovering and then becoming reinfected. That's a pretty big sample size now for that not to have happened, giving 'at least four to five months' as the provisional answer.


----------



## two sheds (Aug 20, 2020)

Ah that's really promising, thanks


----------



## 2hats (Aug 20, 2020)

Children’s role in spread of virus greater than thought...


> "I was surprised by the high levels of virus we found in children of all ages, especially in the first two days of infection,” says Lael Yonker, director of the MGH Cystic Fibrosis Center and lead author of the study. “I was not expecting the viral load to be so high. You think of a hospital, and of all of the precautions taken to treat severely ill adults, but the viral loads of these hospitalized patients are significantly lower than a ‘healthy child’ who is walking around with a high SARS-CoV-2 viral load."





> "Kids are not immune from this infection, and their symptoms don’t correlate with exposure and infection,” says Alessio Fasano, director of the Mucosal Immunology and Biology Research Center at MGH and senior author of the manuscript. “During this COVID-19 pandemic, we have mainly screened symptomatic subjects, so we have reached the erroneous conclusion that the vast majority of people infected are adults. However, our results show that kids are not protected against this virus. We should not discount children as potential spreaders for this virus."





> Data from the group show that although younger children have lower numbers of the virus receptor than older children and adults, this does not correlate with a decreased viral load. According to the authors, this finding suggests that children can carry a high viral load, meaning they are more contagious, regardless of their susceptibility to developing COVID-19 infection.











						Looking at children as the silent spreaders of SARS-CoV-2
					

A new study has found that children infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 were shown to have a significantly higher level of virus in their airways than hospitalized adults in ICUs for COVID-19 treatment.




					news.harvard.edu
				



Paper: 'Pediatric SARS-CoV-2: Clinical Presentation, Infectivity, and Immune Responses', Yonker, Neilan,  Bartsch, Alter, Li, Fasano, JPeds (2020). DOI: 10.1016/j.jpeds.2020.08.037


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 20, 2020)

2hats said:


> Children’s role in spread of virus greater than thought...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Fits with the latest antibody results from the UK. Those found 6% antibodies overall, rising to 8% in people 18-24, falling to 3% in 65-74 age group. Seems likely that upward trend wouldn't stop at 18. More young people than old appear to have been catching it, it's just way more deadly for the old.

Antibody prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 in England following first peak of the pandemic: REACT2 study in 100,000 adults

It finds that antibody levels 'may start to wane' after about 90 days. Bit vague...



> Of the 5,544  IgG positive people, 3 ,406 ( 61.4 %;60.1, 62.7) reported one or more  typical symptoms (fever,  persistent cough, loss of  taste or  smell),  353 (6.4% ; 5 .8,  7.0 ) reported atypical symptoms only, and  1,785 (32 .2%; 3 1.0, 33 . 4) reported  no symptoms. This varied by age , with people  over 65  being more likely  to report no symptoms  (3 92/8 01, 48.9 %, 45. 4, 52.4)  than those  aged  18-34 (418 /1 ,3 93, 30.0 %, 27. 6, 32.4)  o r 3 5-64 years  (975 /3, 3 50, 29.1 %, 27 .6, 30.6 ),  (p<0 .001)  (Table  S 1 and  S2); prevalence  wa s higher in  those with more severe  symptoms, and  who had contact with  a confirmed or suspected  case (



Interesting, perhaps surprising, finding that asymptomatic cases are more prevalent in the old than the young.


----------



## LDC (Aug 20, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Fits with the latest antibody results from the UK. Those found 6% antibodies overall, rising to 8% in people 18-24, falling to 3% in 65-74 age group. Seems likely that upward trend wouldn't stop at 18. More young people than old have been catching it, it's just way more deadly for the old.
> 
> Antibody prevalence for SARS-CoV-2 in England following first peak of the pandemic: REACT2 study in 100,000 adults
> 
> ...



Yeah, I was chatting to a friend the other day and both his parents (in their 70s) have had it, caught early on from a coach trip round Northern Italy. One of them had very mild symptoms, the other one no symptoms at all, yet they both tested positive at the time with swab test, and both positive afterwards for antibodies.

E2A: Anecdote obviously, rather than data or proof of anything.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 20, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Yeah, I was chatting to a friend the other day and both his parents (in their 70s) have had it, caught early on from a coach trip round Northern Italy. One of them had very mild symptoms, the other one no symptoms at all, yet they both tested positive at the time with swab test, and both positive afterwards for antibodies.


Seems a pattern with research into C19. New results often confound previous expectations. And quite a few results can appear to be contradictory. There really is shitloads that we don't understand.


----------



## elbows (Aug 20, 2020)

I looked into Spain some more. It seems the increase in deaths was predictable because their hospitalisation data has been moving in that direction for some time.

This graph is from about 9 days ago via Las hospitalizaciones se cuadruplican en un mes por el aumento de casos



And since then (I machine translated this article Las muertes por coronavirus notificadas por Sanidad se disparan en agosto )



> The indicators do show a clear increase in pressure on the health system . Hospitalizations in the last week have grown by 55%, to 1,336 admissions, while those of the ICU have grown even more, by 71%.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 20, 2020)

What's the story with Aragon? Seems a pretty big drop which is good.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 20, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> What's the story with Aragon? Seems a pretty big drop which is good.


New cases in Aragon do appear to be falling. Lower last week than the week before. It's an area that missed the first wave largely - nearly a third of its total cases have come in the last two weeks! It accounts for nearly half of deaths in the last week. 

In a way Madrid is more of a worry. It was hit hard in the first wave, and has gone up considerably again. 

https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesiona...ina/documentos/Actualizacion_188_COVID-19.pdf


----------



## Teaboy (Aug 20, 2020)

2hats said:


> Children’s role in spread of virus greater than thought...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



On the children thing it just makes sense to me that children can carry and transmit the virus.  In the head long rush to get the schools back open (for understandable reasons) there have been people queuing up to say that the risk of transmission between kids is nothing.  That always seemed odd to me as kids are known to be super spreaders for a lot of things.  Conflating not having noticeable symptoms with not being infected and infectious never sat comfortably with me.

Anyway, I'm sure we'll find out when all the schools reopen.


----------



## ATOMIC SUPLEX (Aug 20, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Anyway, I'm sure we'll find out when all the schools reopen.



I'm slightly terrified, because my daughter might not show symptoms, but with me (and I am sure other people like me) with no immune system, if we get it . . . that's pretty shit, and there is not much I can do about it. I have no idea what the school or government guidelines are beyond "go back to school".


----------



## mx wcfc (Aug 20, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> On the children thing it just makes sense to me that children can carry and transmit the virus.  In the head long rush to get the schools back open (for understandable reasons) there have been people queuing up to say that the risk of transmission between kids is nothing.  That always seemed odd to me as kids are known to be super spreaders for a lot of things.  Conflating not having noticeable symptoms with not being infected and infectious never sat comfortably with me.
> 
> Anyway, I'm sure we'll find out when all the schools reopen.


The argument that I've heard is that "there is little evidence of transmission in schools".  This may be true, but given the schools have been pretty much closed since this started, it is hardly surprising, either.


----------



## Teaboy (Aug 20, 2020)

ATOMIC SUPLEX said:


> I'm slightly terrified, because my daughter might not show symptoms, but with me (and I am sure other people like me) with no immune system, if we get it . . . that's pretty shit, and there is not much I can do about it. I have no idea what the school or government guidelines are beyond "go back to school".



Aye and as if closing the pubs is going to make a jot of difference to that.

I suppose there are some grounds for optimism in that kids have been out and about for months now, playing with other kids with all the rough and tumble that comes with. This hasn't seemed to have caused any notable problems so far.


----------



## clicker (Aug 20, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Aye and as if closing the pubs is going to make a jot of difference to that.
> 
> I suppose there are some grounds for optimism in that kids have been out and about for months now, playing with other kids with all the rough and tumble that comes with. This hasn't seemed to have caused any notable problems so far.


I'm not sure kids have been interacting as normal for months now. Holiday clubs, afterschool activities, playgrounds, soft play etc have been mostly closed. No morning assemblies, school canteens or packed buses . Families have definitely curtailed normal service when it comes to visiting family and friends.
I suppose the good thing is, any negative effect of suddenly opening up schools to all will be seen quickly.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 20, 2020)

mx wcfc said:


> The argument that I've heard is that "there is little evidence of transmission in schools".  This may be true, but given the schools have been pretty much closed since this started, it is hardly surprising, either.


There is evidence from other countries. Finland reopened its schools without issue. Denmark also had gradual reopenings.  Sweden never closed them. It can be done.

Also remember some schools here never closed either.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Aug 20, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Anyway, I'm sure we'll find out all die when all the schools reopen.


FTFY


----------



## ATOMIC SUPLEX (Aug 20, 2020)

clicker said:


> I suppose the good thing is, any negative effect of suddenly opening up schools to all will be seen quickly.


If my daughter gets it and I die I will comfort myself that negative effects are seen quickly.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 20, 2020)

This is linked to the findings of the importance of 'superspreaders'. There is growing evidence that children are rarely superspreaders. You're probably more likely to catch it from a teacher than from a child.

eg this study in Finland.

School children unlikely to play a significant role in COVID-19 spread, says Finnish study

One of the takeaways from that is that it will be absolutely vital for no teacher even to consider going to work with any kinds of symptoms. Another takeaway, inevitably, is that more research is needed...


----------



## Teaboy (Aug 20, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> This is linked to the findings of the importance of 'superspreaders'. There is growing evidence that children are rarely superspreaders. You're probably more likely to catch it from a teacher than from a child.



Yes, it was me who mentioned super spreaders but only in relation to more common things such as colds etc.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 20, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Yes, it was me who mentioned super spreaders but only in relation to more common things such as colds etc.


wrt Covid, evidence suggests that most people don't pass it on to anyone - perhaps as many as eight or nine in ten don't pass it on. Then a few pass it on to loads of people. And in this regard, it does appear that children are less likely to be one of those 'one in ten' than adults, rather than more likely.


----------



## elbows (Aug 20, 2020)

Dont jump the gun on this stuff. New reports are emerging all the time and some of them point in a different direction to the picture you are keen on.

Its way too early for me to make claims one way or the other that are solid enough that they can then be translated to policy. 

Forr example just today from the same website as the Finnish study you linked to:









						Children play a larger role in the community spread of COVID-19 than previously thought
					

In the most comprehensive study of COVID-19 pediatric patients to date, Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) and Mass General Hospital for Children (MGHfC) researchers provide critical data showing that children play a larger role in the community spread of COVID-19 than previously thought




					www.news-medical.net
				




I considered the headline to be misleading but the detail is of interest anyway.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 20, 2020)

Hence my 'more research is needed'. Evidence is often slim and sometimes contradictory. However, the macro evidence of schools in Scandinavia, where you don't consider the causes, merely the outcomes, is encouraging.


----------



## elbows (Aug 20, 2020)

Your attitude towards school-related risks has been clear for a long time. I am at odds with it, but only time will really tell.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 20, 2020)

The This Week in Virology podcast is really worth listening to on this.


----------



## Doodler (Aug 20, 2020)

A friend who lives in New York claims New Yorkers find self-isolation hard because they tend to be very sociable compared to the inhabitants of the other US large cities he knows.

A new mass screening finds just over 27% of New Yorkers test positive for Covid antibodies.

New York Times article

As you'd expect, the general pattern is for people from  poorer areas to be more likely to have been infected.

In one small district, over 50% of those tested were positive. The district is called . . . Corona.

ETA: an NYC study some weeks previously found a 19-20% rate iirc but was conducted with people visiting grocery stores, not really a random sampling.


----------



## clicker (Aug 20, 2020)

ATOMIC SUPLEX said:


> If my daughter gets it and I die I will comfort myself that negative effects are seen quickly.


If they're seen quickly measures can be taken quickly we hope. We could also learn now from countries already opening up schools. This does overall put us in a better position than we were in February onwards. But will we?

PHE were (unsurprisingly) not mandating students wearing face masks, this could change maybe to put our schools more in line with others. Hopefully schools and parents will work together to take what precautions they can. The guidance from above isn't reassuring anyone. 

I can envisage outbreaks in schools, it's inevitable. There doesn't seem to be any  consistent guidance about what happens after cases are found though. A lot of people are going to be worrying for a long time.


----------



## elbows (Aug 20, 2020)

Doodler said:


> New mass screening finds just over 27% of New Yorkers test positive for Covid antibodies.
> 
> New York Times article
> 
> ...



I cant read the NYT article. Was this one from random sampling either?

A lot of the data is here if you scroll down a bit past the non-antibody tests.





__





						COVID-19: Data Main - NYC Health
					





					www1.nyc.gov
				




Some of the detail might matter. Seeing the numbers over time certainly helps, as well as by age.





Its hard to make comparisons with places like London because there hasnt been mass testing there. We are reliant on small scale random sampling, including from people donating blood, to come up with regional estimates for antibody prevalence.

We also dont know about test accuracy in New York compared to the forms of testing used here. And there are big questions about some other forms of immunity that are way more difficult to test for and so havent been the focus of any population antibody studies at scale so far.

The following is from the most recent report at National COVID-19 surveillance reports


----------



## ATOMIC SUPLEX (Aug 20, 2020)

clicker said:


> If they're seen quickly measures can be taken quickly we hope. We could also learn now from countries already opening up schools. This does overall put us in a better position than we were in February onwards. But will we?
> 
> PHE were (unsurprisingly) not mandating students wearing face masks, this could change maybe to put our schools more in line with others. Hopefully schools and parents will work together to take what precautions they can. The guidance from above isn't reassuring anyone.
> 
> I can envisage outbreaks in schools, it's inevitable. There doesn't seem to be any  consistent guidance about what happens after cases are found though. A lot of people are going to be worrying for a long time.


What I mean is that for results to be seen, people have to catch it. For people to notice, many  people will have to be very ill or die.  That does not sound like a particularly acceptable experiment to me before the rates go right down.


----------



## alsoknownas (Aug 20, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> What's the story with Aragon? Seems a pretty big drop which is good.


He's Elven by marriage, which might give him some immunity.

(sorry, I know this is a serious thread - I just couldn't resist!)


----------



## clicker (Aug 20, 2020)

ATOMIC SUPLEX said:


> What I mean is that for results to be seen, people have to catch it. For people to notice, many  people will have to be very ill or die.  That does not sound like a particularly acceptable experiment to me before the rates go right down.


No it could mean we'll see increases in positive cases, if thousands of people suddenly join the melee when schools open that is inevitable (if testing is increased).
Hopefully weve gone past the stage of not noticing until people become 'very ill or die'.


----------



## ATOMIC SUPLEX (Aug 20, 2020)

clicker said:


> No it could mean we'll see increases in positive cases, if thousands of people suddenly join the melee when schools open that is inevitable (if testing is increased).
> Hopefully weve gone past the stage of not noticing until people become 'very ill or die'.


We haven't. Some people show no symptoms, some people are affected badly and quicky. So hard to tell, especially in children. How about the example I gave? My daughter comes home with it, no symptoms, I catch it, I probably can't recover because I have neutropenia and can't fight it. I'm not the only one, and there are thousands of schools. People will get badly ill, people will die before you find out it's spreading too fast. That's how they will tell.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 20, 2020)

Yeah we saw that in places like Florida where cases were soaring and people kept saying 'deaths are down what's the problem'


----------



## clicker (Aug 20, 2020)

ATOMIC SUPLEX said:


> We haven't. Some people show no symptoms, some people are affected badly and quicky. So hard to tell, especially in children. How about the example I gave? My daughter comes home with it, no symptoms, I catch it, I probably can't recover because I have neutropenia and can't fight it. I'm not the only one, and there are thousands of schools. People will get badly ill, people will die before you find out it's spreading too fast. That's how they will tell.


The more we can increase the testing the more we can find cases where people are asymptomatic ,this means they can isolate. They will spread it to less people, had they not been tested . 

In an ideal world we would have a top-notch testing and Track and Trace system in place before schools open, but at the moment we haven't. Would you prefer schools stay shut or open with half size classes? Is your daughter wearing a mask to school? Has her school informed you what they will be doing? What do you want to happen regarding her schooling? 

Lots of  people are doing their own risk assessment. Not stepping outside the front door seems safest, but seldom practical.


----------



## ATOMIC SUPLEX (Aug 20, 2020)

clicker said:


> The more we can increase the testing the more we can find cases where people are asymptomatic ,this means they can isolate. They will spread it to less people, had they not been tested .


Well dur, that would be great of course, but they have shown no real sign of doing this at all let alone effectively, and not in school. 



clicker said:


> In an ideal world we would have a top-notch testing and Track and Trace system in place before schools open, but at the moment we haven't.


They have neither in any way close to working effectively, right now they are going on reported cases, hospital cases and death.


clicker said:


> Would you prefer schools stay shut or open with half size classes?


I would prefer peoples lives were not put at risk. I would prefer them to take this seriously and not just cross their fingers and see how it goes. "Hummm, deaths have only gone up a few hundred, that's not so bad". People dying is bad!



clicker said:


> Is your daughter wearing a mask to school?


Yes, though I have heard from a teacher friend that they have been given guidelines as to how to get children to remove them. . . which seems odd. He thinks my daughters school will be sensible though (he works there). . he's not so sure about his daughters school. 



clicker said:


> Has her school informed you what they will be doing?


They still are not sure what they are doing, and are quite muddled, they have not had any clear guidelines at all. They seem quite confused. 



clicker said:


> What do you want to happen regarding her schooling?


I'm not sure I want the kids to go back to school until there are very clear guidelines with scientific backing that don't put my life at risk. Nobody has even properly thought about, who is actually at risk. As I said before, I'm not officially 'at risk' according to the government, but that's only because there isn't a full and proper 'at risk' list. My doctor however tells me I very much and high risk. I am quite obviously not the only one, but I am lucky at least that I was diagnosed (while they were looking for something else), many people won't even know. 

I get the impression you do think that as we don't have any proper system set up for the schools, or scientific backing or track and trace . .  it is worth a few more people dying to find out if it's ok. "We'll find out soon enough if it is going tits up" . . . that is not the way to do it.


----------



## clicker (Aug 20, 2020)

ATOMIC SUPLEX said:


> Well dur, that would be great of course, but they have shown no real sign of doing this at all let alone effectively, and not in school.
> 
> 
> They have neither in any way close to working effectively, right now they are going on reported cases, hospital cases and death.
> ...


Then you have got the wrong impression. I think it will be a total shit show.


----------



## Fruitloop (Aug 20, 2020)

I would prefer schools to stay shut too. We've delayed the smallest criminal's start for a year, 'cos he's a summer baby and he seems ludicrously too small anyway. Not sure at this point what we're going to do about the others.


----------



## clicker (Aug 20, 2020)

I wonder if there will be an increase in parents wanting to homeschool , as a result of this...maybe even take them out for a year.


----------



## MrSki (Aug 20, 2020)

Well it seems the latest research shows that children with Covid but without being very ill have a larger Covid load than patients in intensive care. Maybe something to be explored more before re-opening schools.


----------



## Doodler (Aug 20, 2020)

elbows said:


> I cant read the NYT article. Was this one from random sampling either?



No - the 1.5 million test results were from New Yorkers who voluntarily got tested. One possible confound is that those tested were more likely to be from wealthier neighbourhoods, but this did not stop a poor working-class district (with many residents working in construction and in restaurants) from reporting the highest antibody rate.

The earlier study (from which a total fatality rate of 0.8-1.0 was calculated) consisted of c. 28,000 people tested. Would think the second later study more significant, quantity having a quality all of its own.


----------



## yield (Aug 21, 2020)

elbows said:


> I cant read the NYT article. Was this one from random sampling either?


 1.5 Million Antibody Tests Show What Parts of N.Y.C. Were Hit Hardest Outline - Read & annotate without distractions
NYT. August 19, 2020 


> New York City on Tuesday released more than 1.46 million coronavirus antibody test results, the largest number to date, providing more evidence of how the virus penetrated deeply into some lower-income communities while passing more lightly across affluent parts of the city.
> 
> In one ZIP code in Queens, more than 50 percent of people who had gotten tested were found to have antibodies, a strikingly high rate. But no ZIP code south of 96th Street in Manhattan had a positive rate of more than 20 percent.





> Across the city, more than 27 percent of those tested had positive antibody results. The borough with the highest rate was the Bronx, at 33 percent. Manhattan had the lowest rate, at 19 percent.
> 
> The data is likely to renew discussion about whether some neighborhoods or communities in New York City may be nearing herd immunity — the point at which enough people have immunity that the virus is no longer able to spread widely within a community.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 21, 2020)

This is an interesting read on the situation in Spain, this in particular caught my eye.



> Most of the transmission is now between young people, and around three-quarters of positives are in patients who show no symptoms.
> 
> Spain's government admits the numbers are "not what we want to see", but points to key differences compared to the spring. Only around 3% of current cases require hospital treatment, less than 0.5% need intensive care and the current death rate is as low as 0.3%.
> 
> "Mortality is very low, as is the hospitalisation rate. Something has changed big time, although the rise is still worrying," says Ildefonso Hernández, a professor in public health from Miguel Hernández University in Alicante.



A fair few positives there, 75% having no symptoms, resulting in only 3% ending-up in hospital, and a lower death rate.

Someone posted a link the other day to a report saying the virus had mutated into a more mild state, and this does seem to back that up.  









						Coronavirus: Why Spain is seeing second wave
					

Spain has Europe's fastest-rising caseload two months after it lifted one of the strictest lockdowns.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## LDC (Aug 21, 2020)

Edited: moved to better forum.


----------



## Aladdin (Aug 21, 2020)

Bolsonaro picking up a man who happens to have dwarfism. Apparently he thought the man was a child.


----------



## ska invita (Aug 21, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Think we probably need an 'opening schools thread' TBH. Anyway, until then news from Berlin doesn't look great re: schools.
> 
> Summary... Berlin has 825 schools. Less than 2 weeks after them opening at least 41 of them have reported teachers or students being infected.
> 
> ...











						Re-opening Schools?
					

From bits I've picked up today i hear there is a plan to open Primary schools on 1st June? Is that correct?  Trade unions are against it https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52650259  I hear that parts of the right are attacking teachers for not wanting to go back - I havent see this with my own...




					www.urban75.net
				




?


----------



## LDC (Aug 21, 2020)

ska invita said:


> Re-opening Schools?
> 
> 
> From bits I've picked up today i hear there is a plan to open Primary schools on 1st June? Is that correct?  Trade unions are against it https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-52650259  I hear that parts of the right are attacking teachers for not wanting to go back - I havent see this with my own...
> ...



So many threads, missed it.   Oh, and not in the Coronavirus forum area. That won't help.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Aug 21, 2020)

return of caleb said:


> Another depressing Victoria, Australia update: remember that new measure somebody posted about in this thread, captioned 'they don't mess about Down Under' - $20,000 fines for those failing to self-isolate? The statistics that were used to justify that new measure being introduced were skewed: the Victorian premier claimed that over a third of people who were meant to be self-isolating were not doing so, _however_ two weeks later it's been clarified that the vast majority of these cases were either (a) the result of an error with an address, or (b) seeking medical care or exercising, as they were allowed to do at that time under the Chief Health Officer's directive (subsequently changed). Once actually investigated, the percentage of those actually breaking the law was closer 0.8%.
> 
> Now here's why it matters:
> 
> ...



And retribution 

I'm in Qld, and watching with sadness and more than a bit of trepidation what you guys are going through. X


----------



## scifisam (Aug 21, 2020)

ATOMIC SUPLEX said:


> Yes, though I have heard from a teacher friend that they have been given guidelines as to how to get children to remove them. . . which seems odd. He thinks my daughters school will be sensible though (he works there). . he's not so sure about his daughters school.



Hopefully this is about teaching kids to remove the masks safely for those times when they need to remove them, like lunchtime. There are safe and less safe ways to do that - handling the strings rather than the mask, and trying not to touch your face too much as you do it - and for reusable masks they probably need reminding not to put the mask on someone else's desk, that sort of thing.


----------



## elbows (Aug 21, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> This is an interesting read on the situation in Spain, this in particular caught my eye.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I recommend augmenting it with this:









						With 7,039 new coronavirus cases in Spain, ministry warns: ‘Things are not going well’
					

Health official Fernando Simón explained on Thursday that while “the epidemic is not out of control on a national level,” it is in some specific areas of the country




					english.elpais.com
				




Partly because it puts their current hospitalisation rate in context, and gives more info about the ages of people testing positive:



> Simón also had some positive messages on Thursday, reporting that the “cases are different” from those seen in March, when the crisis took hold. “They are very young, with an average age among women of 39 and in men of 37. At the peak of the epidemic it was 62 or 63, and two months ago it was 53.”





> He added that many asymptomatic and mild cases were being detected, meaning that the “hospitalization rates are low.” These are, he explained, “currently around 4%, well below the 55% or more that was seen during the peak of the pandemic.”



The fact they had a 55% hospitalisation rate during their peek is evidence of how woeful the detection of cases overall was back then. As I have explained in other posts today, this is the sort of thing I would reach for as the explanation of first resort at this stage in the pandemic stuff, not stuff about it mutating to a milder form. Because it is still far more likely to be our behaviours and the social mixing patterns of different age groups in different settings, along with our view of outbreaks, and our perceptions of the virus and its burden on humanity that have been changing most in this period, not the virus itself or what it is capable of doing to people. And as I've said before, aside from very compelling evidence arriving in a form I cannot ignore, it will not be possible for me to strongly consider changes to the virus itself until I have seen various countries cope with a big chunk of the coming winter.

This next quote sounds like something I've said in recent weeks, usually in response to people who dont understand the current concerns or why governments feel the need to act so far in advance of levels of infection reaching anything even remotely close to those that would be expected to lead to the high death rates, to the level of death that people take seriously.



> With a tone that contrasted with his usual calm approach, Simón made clear that “there continues to be transmission [of the virus] and every day there is more.” He warned that “if we continue to allow this to rise, even if the cases are mild, we will end up with many people in the hospital, many admitted in intensive care and many dead.”



I dont think the BBC article did the current situation in Spain justice because they arent attempting to describe the hospital situation beyond the obvious comparison to how bad it was at the peak. But at this stage that comparison is of little interest to me, its just like UK hospital data, I am looking for rises and their speed, I'm not going to ignore these numbers just because they are so much lower than the first peak. And so we have this from the El Pais article:



> The number of people hospitalized in the last seven days now stands at 1,407, nearly double the figure for a week ago, while the number of new intensive care unit admissions has grown at the same speed, with 90 new patients.



I will attempt to monitor their hospital situation closely from now on, if I can find the right data sources. I am happy to talk about Spain on any thread where it comes up in conversation, but if I end up wanting to post data updates that are not in the context of a bit of conversation, I think I will resurrect the threat about Spain that I think exists in the earlier history of this subforum.


----------



## elbows (Aug 21, 2020)

Plus the Spanish version of that article from their site which I translated with my browser offers additional numbers, and gives me clues about what sort of hospital data is available again in Spain for me to monitor:









						España alcanza un nuevo récord al sumar 8.148 nuevos positivos, 3.650 en 24 horas
					

La circulación del virus se acelera en Madrid, que ya representa el 35% del total de nuevos diagnósticos




					elpais.com
				






> Health offers since Thursday a new block of data on the number of hospitalizations , discharges and admissions to the ICU, although the novelty of the figures does not allow for now to capture their evolution. The data does say that there are now 4,703 people hospitalized, of which 541 are in the ICU and 765 were admitted on Thursday. The health system has 4.4% of beds occupied by coronavirus patients, one tenth more than the previous day.


----------



## elbows (Aug 21, 2020)

OK that hospital data is in the usual report.

So this is the latest, from page 3 of https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesiona...ina/documentos/Actualizacion_190_COVID-19.pdf



So I will attempt to track this over time.

Anyone else who wants to look at this over time can find the latest document via the link on this site that is labelled like 'Actualización nº190: enfermedad por SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) 21.08.2020'





__





						Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social - Profesionales - Situación actual Coronavirus
					

Situación actual del Coronavirus, Ministerio de Sanidad, Consumo y Bienestar Social



					www.mscbs.gob.es


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 21, 2020)

elbows said:


> OK that hospital data is in the usual report.
> 
> So this is the latest, from page 3 of https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesiona...ina/documentos/Actualizacion_190_COVID-19.pdf
> 
> ...



Does that table say 13% of beds in aragon occupied with covid patients? Unless I have misunderstood it?


----------



## elbows (Aug 21, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Does that table say 13% of beds in aragon occupied with covid patients? Unless I have misunderstood it?



As far as I know. I dont speak Spanish, I am reliant on computer translation.

Anyway I found graphs of some data over time in their weekly report rather than the daily one, so I can finish my look at this aspect for now.





__





						Informes COVID-19
					






					www.isciii.es
				






Ignore the droop at the end, I think it is always there every week due to reporting delays etc. For example if I look at the report from 2 weeks earlier (report no. 38) those graphs look like this:


----------



## Nylock (Aug 23, 2020)

The US has passed 180,000 deaths today and they're predicting in excess of 350,000 by end of December =/


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 23, 2020)

310k deaths by dec 1st!? Wtf


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 23, 2020)

There's been over 800k deaths worldwide now and the real number is almost certainly higher


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 23, 2020)

Nylock said:


> The US has passed 180,000 deaths today and they're predicting in excess of 350,000 by end of December =/



Or over 220,000 according to the NY Times - I've just posted this on the America thread -








						COVID-19 in America
					

175,000 deaths in the USA :( Jesus.  for perspective thats still less per head of population than the UK




					www.urban75.net


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 23, 2020)

Yemen and COVID-19: The pandemic exacts its devastating toll
					

Yemen’s civil war is about to be eclipsed in a tragic manner.




					www.brookings.edu


----------



## krtek a houby (Aug 23, 2020)

This is tragic 

At least 13 dead as Peru police raid nightclub in Lima after Covid ban


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 24, 2020)

Guardian reporting what is believed to be the first bona fide case of a second reinfection four and a half months after leaving hospital having been cleared. 

He was reinfected with a different strain, to which he was asymptomatic this time, while the first one made him very ill. So that is perhaps a good thing. But first signs that immunity to the earlier strains is losing its effectiveness to new strains, which is a bad thing.

Coronavirus live news: Hong Kong man's second Covid-19 infection gives rise to immunity concerns



> The 33-year-old male was cleared of Covid-19 and discharged from a hospital in April, but tested positive again after returning from Spain via Britain on 15 August.
> 
> The patient had appeared to be previously healthy, researchers said in the paper, which was accepted by the international medical journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.
> 
> ...


----------



## Badgers (Aug 24, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Guardian reporting what is believed to be the first bona fide case of a second reinfection four and a half months after leaving hospital having been cleared.
> 
> He was reinfected with a different strain, to which he was asymptomatic this time, while the first one made him very ill. So that is perhaps a good thing. But first signs that immunity to the earlier strains is losing its effectiveness to new strains, which is a bad thing.
> 
> Coronavirus live news: Hong Kong man's second Covid-19 infection gives rise to immunity concerns


Concerning but one single case could be an anomaly?


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 24, 2020)

I've heard anecdotally of people becoming reinfected. It's supposed to be quite rare though.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 24, 2020)

As far as I know (and I have been looking out for it), this is the first documented case. Previous suspected reinfections probably were not - probably cases in which the virus had never fully cleared. 

This is potentially very significant, tbh. Up to now, we could have some confidence that immunity was pretty much universal and that it had been holding for everyone for at least four or five months. 

This appears to be a case not of a person losing their immunity so much as the virus changing sufficiently that the immunity to the old version no longer works well. So a bit like how the annual flu mutates and leaves an old vaccination ineffective. At least the person didn't get ill this time. Hopefully that indicates that the immunity to the old strain remains at least partially effective against the new one. 

I guess the fear in all this is that a second wave could be even more deadly than the first, which is what happened with both Russian flu (probably a coronavirus) and Spanish flu. However, there is this finding from Spanish flu, and C-19 doesn't appear to be mutating to become more deadly at least. 



> Those infected with mild symptoms in first wave were protected from more-severe disease in wave 2 or wave 3, thus proving that it was the same virus in wave 1, and that exposure led to protection (immunity).



https://www.consultant360.com/article/consultant360/1918-what-can-we-learn

Also this from that article. Come on Covid, get to work. New generation to take care of. 



> Frederick Trump, grandfather of the president, died of influenza on May 30, 1918, in the early days of the pandemic. According to the family, he had felt suddenly sick the day before while walking with his son, Fred


----------



## elbows (Aug 24, 2020)

If I zoom in on Italys hospital data then an increase can be spotted. Its fairly modest so far but its still the wrong direction.

Can only just see it on the first two graphs so I zoomed in for the 2nd set by only using data from July 1st onwards.

Data is from pcm-dpc/COVID-19


----------



## AnandLeo (Aug 24, 2020)

Donald Trump gives emergency authorisation for use of plasma to treat coronavirus.

Royal Manchester Children’s Hospital patient is the first in the UK to receive convalescent plasma through dedicated COVID-19 treatment trial - Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust
News posted 3 June, 2020


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 25, 2020)

Gaza enters Covid lockdown as first community cases emerge
					

Palestinians fear ‘catastrophe’ amid weak healthcare, economic toll and increased tensions with Israel




					www.theguardian.com
				




Oh shit


----------



## 2hats (Aug 25, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> As far as I know (and I have been looking out for it), this is the first documented case. Previous suspected reinfections probably were not - probably cases in which the virus had never fully cleared.
> 
> This is potentially very significant, tbh. Up to now, we could have some confidence that immunity was pretty much universal and that it had been holding for everyone for at least four or five months.
> 
> This appears to be a case not of a person losing their immunity so much as the virus changing sufficiently that the immunity to the old version no longer works well. So a bit like how the annual flu mutates and leaves an old vaccination ineffective. At least the person didn't get ill this time. Hopefully that indicates that the immunity to the old strain remains at least partially effective against the new one.


This patient, one in X tens of millions of cases, was asymptomatic. Likely this indicates their immune system was reacting early with some degree of efficacy against the virus second time around. The (not yet peer reviewed) research doesn't appear to measure how infectious they were.

Human immune reaction to all previously exposed pathogens is a wide spectrum and no immune response in any individual is comprehensive for any disease. There are _very_ small numbers of recorded instances of re-infection of (otherwise) healthy individuals by other viruses so one would expect the same here for SARS-CoV-2.

All research thus far indicates a fairly robust (primarily T-cell) immune response in the healthy on exposure to SARS-Cov-2. Said response lasting for at least several months. Understanding of longer term immunity will only come when cases have been observed for correspondingly sufficiently long periods of time.

Commentary from the HKU Microbiology department (from where the preprint in question originated):








						The risk of Covid-19 re-infection - Fight Covid-19
					

Siddharth Sridhar, clinical assistant professor from HKU ’s Department of Microbiology shared his insights on the risk of Covid-19 re-infection in an article published on his Facebook on 22 August, 2020. Below is the full article. Can you catch COVID-19 twice? This question has received a lot of...




					fightcovid19.hku.hk
				



and more specifically on the research in question:








						HKU documents the world’s first case of COVID-19 reinfection - Fight Covid-19
					

HKU researchers have documented the world’s first case of reinfection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. While reinfection has been reported before, the study by HKU’s Department of Microbiology is the first in the world to confirm that a person was infected a second time by a different virus. According...




					fightcovid19.hku.hk


----------



## 2hats (Aug 25, 2020)

To add - two more cases of apparent re-infection - one each in the Netherlands and Belgium have just come to light.

In the Dutch case the patient was elderly with a poor immune system.

Such cases are to be expected, as per the above explanation. Perhaps if they started to account for, say, >~1% of cases might one be concerned that this is indicative of a significant problem in respect of immunity and potential vaccine efficacy.


----------



## Teaboy (Aug 25, 2020)

2hats said:


> To add - two more cases of apparent re-infection - one each in the Netherlands and Belgium have just come to light.
> 
> In the Dutch case the patient was elderly with a poor immune system.
> 
> Such cases are to be expected, as per the above explanation. Perhaps if they started to account for, say, >~1% of cases might one be concerned that this is indicative of a significant problem in respect of immunity and potential vaccine efficacy.



Isn't this generally true of a lot of existing vaccines though?  They're not particularly effective for the elderly so you hope they are effective enough in the age groups of people who are more likely to spread and keep the virus circulating?


----------



## platinumsage (Aug 25, 2020)

2hats said:


> To add - two more cases of apparent re-infection - one each in the Netherlands and Belgium have just come to light.
> 
> In the Dutch case the patient was elderly with a poor immune system.
> 
> Such cases are to be expected, as per the above explanation. Perhaps if they started to account for, say, >~1% of cases might one be concerned that this is indicative of a significant problem in respect of immunity and potential vaccine efficacy.



Not really, it's normal to need a booster vaccine to achive long-term immunity. Planning for COVID-19 vaccines has taken this into account.


----------



## Anju (Aug 25, 2020)

Not sure over what time period the cases built up to 500+, though a week is implied but this can't be a good indicator for our schools, colleges and universities reopening. Article does mention a couple of other universities that have recorded 400+ cases since mid August.

The University of Alabama reports over 500 Covid-19 cases less than a week after classes started


----------



## elbows (Aug 25, 2020)

Anju said:


> Not sure over what time period the cases built up to 500+, though a week is implied but this can't be a good indicator for our schools, colleges and universities reopening. Article does mention a couple of other universities that have recorded 400+ cases since mid August.
> 
> The University of Alabama reports over 500 Covid-19 cases less than a week after classes started



Its largely a reflection of the state of their broader epidemic at that point in time though.

I could point to the following graph of Alabama cases and say that it would be the equivalent of UK Universities reopening in early May, which would not have been a good idea at all.  But this wouldnt be a correct comparison either because its not just that Alabamas epidemic peak first wave was much later than ours, its also about what measures they did and did not take in different periods, which again will vary compared to the UK and make comparisons tricky. Plus testing regimes varied over time in different places, further complicating comparisons and sometimes compromising a proper view of actual epidemic wave stage.



Thats not to say I think that everything will be fine here, just that its hard to make certain comparisons with places that had different measures and epidemic timing. Still fine to make the broader points though and to highlight this stuff as a cause for concern.


----------



## Anju (Aug 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its largely a reflection of the state of their broader epidemic at that point in time though.
> 
> I could point to the following graph of Alabama cases and say that it would be the equivalent of UK Universities reopening in early May, which would not have been a good idea at all.  But this wouldnt be a correct comparison either because its not just that Alabamas epidemic peak first wave was much later than ours, its also about what measures they did and did not take in different periods, which again will vary compared to the UK and make comparisons tricky. Plus testing regimes varied over time in different places, further complicating comparisons and sometimes compromising a proper view of actual epidemic wave stage.
> 
> ...



OK, that makes sense now. Looking at that graph and the population of Alabama, 4 million, the rate in the university may be lower than the general population, though I checked the university covid dashboard and their figure is from 19/8 so can't compare to the graph figures directly. Plus I'm clueless when it comes to statistics. 

Would it be possible to work out the risk of opening large workplaces and educational institutions by comparing new infections in the general population to new infections in those places, where testing is at similar levels.


----------



## elbows (Aug 25, 2020)

Anju said:


> Would it be possible to work out the risk of opening large workplaces and educational institutions by comparing new infections in the general population to new infections in those places, where testing is at similar levels.



Its difficult to do it from the numbers alone. Proper analysis of every case picked up by test & contact tracing systems is one way to try, because hopefully the contact tracing ends up revealing enough about some specific examples of chains of transmission that the infection settings end up being revealed. And then there is research into the various detailed relevant areas of science, such as studying how the virus can actually spread indoors in different ways, what other risks are, how different age groups are affected, stuff like that.

Also the reasons why closing schools is thought to have quite a notable effect on epidemics/pandemics is that it has a big effect on the behaviour of lots of adults too. Most of the key mitigation measures countries took  were all about changing the number of contacts everyone has in their routine lives. Closing schools disrupts routines in various ways including people not going to work because of childcare issues. So in terms of the impact of educational closures on how the disease progresses in future, its not just about the risk of transmission within those educational settings.


----------



## Anju (Aug 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> Its difficult to do it from the numbers alone. Proper analysis of every case picked up by test & contact tracing systems is one way to try, because hopefully the contact tracing ends up revealing enough about some specific examples of chains of transmission that the infection settings end up being revealed. And then there is research into the various detailed relevant areas of science, such as studying how the virus can actually spread indoors in different ways, what other risks are, how different age groups are affected, stuff like that.
> 
> Also the reasons why closing schools is thought to have quite a notable effect on epidemics/pandemics is that it has a big effect on the behaviour of lots of adults too. Most of the key mitigation measures countries took  were all about changing the number of contacts everyone has in their routine lives. Closing schools disrupts routines in various ways including people not going to work because of childcare issues. So in terms of the impact of educational closures on how the disease progresses in future, its not just about the risk of transmission within those educational settings.



Thanks.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Aug 25, 2020)

Anju said:


> Not sure over what time period the cases built up to 500+, though a week is implied but this can't be a good indicator for our schools, colleges and universities reopening. Article does mention a couple of other universities that have recorded 400+ cases since mid August.
> 
> The University of Alabama reports over 500 Covid-19 cases less than a week after classes started


A better comparison for England and Wales is with Scotland. Despite small regional differences, the UK-wide response has been broadly similar and infection levels across the country are broadly similar now. So we can expect some positive tests in schools in England/Wales when they reopen. Perhaps a few schools closing temporarily. And perhaps some small leakage into the community from schools, although it's not totally clear that that has happened yet in Scotland. Also, in Scotland, teachers taking it into schools has been at least as much of a problem as children doing so.

One of the biggest hurdles is going to be the way this is reported. This report on Scotland from the BBC is typical, opening up with the usual salvo in such stories, that 'a growing number of cases have been confirmed'. This gives the impression of a situation getting worse. But it isn't really. Clusters identified in the first week of reopening have been followed up and found not to have spread. (In terms of absolute numbers, multiply by 10 to get a similar level in England.)

Where have school pupils tested positive for Covid-19?

There's a question of expectation here. Finding a few cases and clusters of cases here and there in schools is what we should expect given the general levels of infection across the country even if not a single person catches it at school. If any clusters found are contained, as has happened in Scotland, that is evidence of a system working. But reporting that I've seen has never taken this angle. It is always about a problem getting worse and what extra measures are needed.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 25, 2020)

Coronavirus Update (Live): 129,471,257 Cases and 2,828,154 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer
					

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...




					www.worldometers.info
				




According to this chart, which I know is not necessarily reliable, the rate of increase of infections and deaths globally is slowing down slightly over the last few weeks. I really hope this is true, and not because of reporting issues and the like.


----------



## Anju (Aug 25, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> A better comparison for England and Wales is with Scotland. Despite small regional differences, the UK-wide response has been broadly similar and infection levels across the country are broadly similar now. So we can expect some positive tests in schools in England/Wales when they reopen. Perhaps a few schools closing temporarily. And perhaps some small leakage into the community from schools, although it's not totally clear that that has happened yet in Scotland. Also, in Scotland, teachers taking it into schools has been at least as much of a problem as children doing so.
> 
> One of the biggest hurdles is going to be the way this is reported. This report on Scotland from the BBC is typical, opening up with the usual salvo in such stories, that 'a growing number of cases have been confirmed'. This gives the impression of a situation getting worse. But it isn't really. Clusters identified in the first week of reopening have been followed up and found not to have spread.
> 
> ...



It's something that concerns me as our youngest daughter starts university at the end of September and as well as me being over 50 and diabetic my wife has a couple of conditions that put her in the high risk group. Both our kids live with us and have been stressed about possibly contracting and bringing the virus home.

Found Elbows' and your post on this helpful and reassuring as we can discuss their concerns about what they see in the news and offer them some reassurance on the likelihood of them killing us.


----------



## elbows (Aug 25, 2020)

Anju said:


> It's something that concerns me as our youngest daughter starts university at the end of September and as well as me being over 50 and diabetic my wife has a couple of conditions that put her in the high risk group. Both our kids live with us and have been stressed about possibly contracting and bringing the virus home.
> 
> Found Elbows' and your post on this helpful and reassuring as we can discuss their concerns about what they see in the news and offer them some reassurance on the likelihood of them killing us.



Well this is where it gets tricky because me and littlebabyjesus have differing opinions in a number of areas and various stuff relating to schools is one where these differences show up most obviously.

I'm also the wrong person to provide reassurances about personal circumstances like the ones you describe. Generally I try to stick to the big themes and how society and various authorities and institutions should deal with the pandemic, various things to watch out for in the data, various terrible mistakes that might be made on a grand scale. When it comes to individuals risk and how they perceive and cope with stuff, I consider that to be a personal matter in some ways, and I dont want to impose on that or come up with tailored advice. Because my sense of risk and how to cope with it might be utterly different to yours. I can try to describe particular situations and data and things that seem to be true, in order to help people percieve the situation accurately, and I am not afraid to shout at stuff I consider to be false hope or misleading claims. But telling people quite how worried they should be about a particular looming aspect of their lives in this pandemic is a step beyond what I am comfortable doing except for the most straightforward and unambiguous of situations. Sorry that this isnt terribly useful. Others round these parts are hopefully better suited to helping with the practicalities and personal risk assessments, and there are better threads for that than this one too.


----------



## elbows (Aug 25, 2020)

I mean I am after all the sort of person who is currently trying to zoom in on certain countries in Europe to make sure that ideas that have developed regarding 'cases are going up but hospitalisations and deaths arent' dont turn into outdated and misleading premises that our press are being far too slow to correct.

Here is the latest output from my attempts to collate data into my own spreadsheet. Note that in order to show the recent data clearly and not have it overwhlemed by the sheer scale of earlier levels during and soon after their first peak, this graph only shows the numbers from mid May onwards. And its important to remember that to get the proper context. Because the point of this exercise is not to claim that levels are returning to anything like those seen at the peak. Its only to demonstrate that after a long period of falling numbers, it is possible to find signs of rises in the more recent period. 

Spain shows this most clearly so far, but I am still adjusting to their new hospital data so I will leave my graphs of their data for another day. But I have also looked at France and in particular the number of new intensive care admissions per day in different regions of France seems to tell a story. These are not huge numbers so I dont seek to make big claims about how big a story they are telling, but its another situation I will watch closely in the weeks ahead.


----------



## 2hats (Aug 26, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Isn't this generally true of a lot of existing vaccines though?  They're not particularly effective for the elderly so you hope they are effective enough in the age groups of people who are more likely to spread and keep the virus circulating?





platinumsage said:


> Not really, it's normal to need a booster vaccine to achive long-term immunity. Planning for COVID-19 vaccines has taken this into account.


The figure is indicative of the need for further research on the matter, not a comment on the direct potential efficacy of any vaccines themselves.


----------



## Anju (Aug 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> Well this is where it gets tricky because me and littlebabyjesus have differing opinions in a number of areas and various stuff relating to schools is one where these differences show up most obviously.
> 
> I'm also the wrong person to provide reassurances about personal circumstances like the ones you describe. Generally I try to stick to the big themes and how society and various authorities and institutions should deal with the pandemic, various things to watch out for in the data, various terrible mistakes that might be made on a grand scale. When it comes to individuals risk and how they perceive and cope with stuff, I consider that to be a personal matter in some ways, and I dont want to impose on that or come up with tailored advice. Because my sense of risk and how to cope with it might be utterly different to yours. I can try to describe particular situations and data and things that seem to be true, in order to help people percieve the situation accurately, and I am not afraid to shout at stuff I consider to be false hope or misleading claims. But telling people quite how worried they should be about a particular looming aspect of their lives in this pandemic is a step beyond what I am comfortable doing except for the most straightforward and unambiguous of situations. Sorry that this isnt terribly useful. Others round these parts are hopefully better suited to helping with the practicalities and personal risk assessments, and there are better threads for that than this one too.



It's more being able to look at stuff in context and have / give a better understanding of what headline figures might mean rather than saying 'don't worry' about this or that particular thing.


----------



## elbows (Aug 26, 2020)

From BBC live updates page at 10:55 which I cannot link to properly right now as the forum is trying to insert it as media.



> From 23:00 this evening, bars, restaurants and food shops in the Bouches-du-Rhône region of southern France will have to close under new rules designed to combat the rapid rise in coronavirus cases there.
> 
> Masks will also be compulsory throughout Marseille. City health authorities have registered 177 cases of coronavirus per 100,000 people; in France as a whole that figure is 33.
> 
> The number of cases nationally is growing by 30-40%, with Paris also now considered a "red zone" where the virus is again actively circulating.



I'm still working on my France spreadsheet but I do have recent ICU data for Bouches-du-Rhône:


----------



## elbows (Aug 26, 2020)

Much of this should not be a surprise to anyone thats been paying attention but apparently the extent of it is still surprising to some experts:









						Obesity increases risk of Covid-19 death by 48%, study finds
					

Comprehensive study suggests vaccine may not work as well for overweight people




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Teaboy (Aug 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> Much of this should not be a surprise to anyone thats been paying attention but apparently the extent of it is still surprising to some experts:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I think the whole covid risk in relation to obesity and diabetes is a bit of an elephant in the room.  It does seem pretty conclusive that it plays a big role in your outcome if you contract it.

I look at countries / areas that have high levels of obesity and there is significant correlation with number of covid deaths.


----------



## teuchter (Aug 26, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I look at countries / areas that have high levels of obesity and there is significant correlation with number of covid deaths.



_Is_ there actually a significant correlation?


----------



## Wilf (Aug 26, 2020)

Anju said:


> It's something that concerns me as our youngest daughter starts university at the end of September and as well as me being over 50 and diabetic my wife has a couple of conditions that put her in the high risk group. Both our kids live with us and have been stressed about possibly contracting and bringing the virus home.
> 
> Found Elbows' and your post on this helpful and reassuring as we can discuss their concerns about what they see in the news and offer them some reassurance on the likelihood of them killing us.


Probably worth you and your daughter looking at what will be expected of her on her particular course. In some institutions it is likely students will be able to complete this year without leaving their bedroom, whereas others will have an element of attendance in smaller groups (and all points inbetween). Some of this information has been slow emerging, but should be there soon, particular as it will be induction in 3/4 weeks.  There's a view around in union circles that there will be an increase in cases linked to specific universities/colleges, which will push everyone back to online delivery before Xmas (or maybe outbreaks linked to schools will do the same if they are in the same town). I included that last sentence as a form of reassurance *, believe it or not, though not obviously for the specific places who get the spike...

Edit * I'm not talking mass outbreaks, just a small number of cases within particular student cohorts that mean individual staff will have to quarantine after being in the same room - all disrupting the institution's attempts at having some sort of 'face to face' delivery.


----------



## Anju (Aug 26, 2020)

Wilf said:


> Probably worth you and your daughter looking at what will be expected of her on her particular course. In some institutions it is likely students will be able to complete this year without leaving their bedroom, whereas others will have an element of attendance in smaller groups (and all points inbetween). Some of this information has been slow emerging, but should be there soon, particular as it will be induction in 3/4 weeks.  There's a view around in union circles that there will be an increase in cases linked to specific universities/colleges, which will push everyone back to online delivery before Xmas (or maybe outbreaks linked to schools will do the same if they are in the same town). I included that last sentence as a form of reassurance *, believe it or not, though not obviously for the specific places who get the spike...
> 
> Edit * I'm not talking mass outbreaks, just a small number of cases within particular student cohorts that mean individual staff will have to quarantine after being in the same room - all disrupting the institution's attempts at having some sort of 'face to face' delivery.



Thanks, will definitely take your advice. Our problem is the kids are, in our opinion, being overly cautious, probably because their mum ended up in hospital for 7 nights last year after an unidentified viral infection.


----------



## Teaboy (Aug 26, 2020)

teuchter said:


> _Is_ there actually a significant correlation?



Good question.  Its purely anecdotal when I look at the UK who is known as the sick man of Europe anyway.  Then the US and Central and a lot of South America have significant obesity problem and the problems associated with obesity (type 2 diabetes being a key one).  Obviously a lot of other factors involved in each country but the concept of being in good health before contracting the virus will give the best chance of survival has never really been in doubt as far as I can see.


----------



## magneze (Aug 26, 2020)

Isn't that the case for most viruses though?


----------



## teuchter (Aug 26, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Good question.  Its purely anecdotal when I look at the UK who is known as the sick man of Europe anyway.  Then the US and Central and a lot of South America have significant obesity problem and the problems associated with obesity (type 2 diabetes being a key one).  Obviously a lot of other factors involved in each country but the concept of being in good health before contracting the virus will give the best chance of survival has never really been in doubt as far as I can see.


Spain and Italy don't really fit into the obesity pattern though.

And the difference in covid outcome between the UK and various other European countries is very stark, whereas the difference in obesity levels is much less so.


----------



## elbows (Aug 26, 2020)

teuchter said:


> And the difference in covid outcome between the UK and various other European countries is very stark, whereas the difference in obesity levels is much less so.



Using the word outcome implies clinical outcome, and I've not actually seen many studies about that yet. Before exploring any differences in that area, it is more obvious to explore differences in death figures being down to a vastly different number of people being infected at all in some countries compared to others. And even some of the countries that had rather a lot of death had a different experience to the UK because they had very large outbreaks in a subset of regions while other regions were often spared huge outbreaks, unlike the UK where things were spread around more evenly with less exceptions.


----------



## Badgers (Aug 26, 2020)

Formula One boss Flavio Briatore, (prominent COVID sceptic who attacked the Italian Govt for closing nightclubs last week) is seriously ill in hospital with coronavirus after catching it in his own Italian nightclub - together with 60 of his own employees.


----------



## elbows (Aug 26, 2020)

Badgers said:


> Formula One boss Flavio Briatore, (prominent COVID sceptic who attacked the Italian Govt for closing nightclubs last week) is seriously ill in hospital with coronavirus after catching it in his own Italian nightclub - together with 60 of his own employees.



Its not currently clear whether he has it since he has posted saying that he hasnt got his test result and that he only has severe prostatitis. 

Fuck him anyway, for many reasons including this quote relating to sour grapes that the authorities wont ignore the pandemic to protect his business interests. "My heart weeps to see an economy slaughtered by people who have never done anything in their lives."


----------



## William of Walworth (Aug 26, 2020)

Badgers said:


> *Formula One boss Flavio Briatore, (prominent COVID sceptic* who attacked the Italian Govt for closing nightclubs last week) is seriously ill in hospital with coronavirus after catching it in his own Italian nightclub - together with 60 of his own employees.



( .... and, about fifteen years ago, almost-owner/near-take-overer of my then pretty impoverished team Oxford United!   .... he added irrelevantly  )


----------



## elbows (Aug 27, 2020)

Glimpses of the situation in various european countries continue to pop up in the media:



> Prime Minister Jean Castex says the virus is four times more prevalent in the French population than a month ago and 21 areas are now classified as "red zones". That's up from just two earlier today.
> 
> "The epidemic is gaining ground and now is the time we have to intervene," he said in a press conference. If France didn't act fast the spread could become "exponential".
> 
> ...





> Germany appears poised to limit private parties to a maximum of 25 people, and extend a ban on large events to the end of the year, as cases continue to rise in the country.
> 
> The ban on large gatherings was due to end in October.
> 
> ...



From BBC live updated page, the links for which are still all messed up on this forum (its treating them as media) so I have to break them https://www.bb c.co.uk/news/live/world-53928841


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 27, 2020)

That sounds grim.


----------



## elbows (Aug 27, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> That sounds grim.



Yeah. Less summer wiggle room than hoped, combined with the inevitable contradiction between what needs to be done to keep virus levels low, and what was deemed to be necessary for the economy.

The absolute failure to learn from and prevent seeding via imported cases that was seen the first time around has not helped either. The desire to reopen European borders as quickly as possible, and the lack of desire to attempt a full viral suppression strategy during the window of opportunity that was created in the wake of the first lockdown is very depressing but always seemed somewhat inevitable.

I always said it was important to give people something in summer, and to test how far things could be relaxed. But many countries went too far, too quickly, and its probably come back to haunt them sooner than expected.

Now having said all that, a lot more fuckups and inappropriate behavioural changes would be required in order to get exactly the same scenario as was seen in February and March. And we should still presume that authorities will intervene at a much earlier stage this time. So its hard for me to get a sense for quite how bad things could get again. It ought to be more difficult for R to again reach the giddy heights it managed at the start. But I think I read some stuff that suggests an R of 1.7 would be enough to create a very large second wave. And there are unknowns relating to schools and autumn/winter conditions.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 27, 2020)

This might be possible good news tho? Could it be less severe infection for people who were previously infected? Or just that hospitals are getting better at treatment? I hope so? 









						Covid-19 is becoming less deadly in Europe but we don't know why
					

It is becoming increasingly clear that people are less likely to die if they get covid-19 now compared with earlier in the pandemic, at least in Europe, but the reasons why are still shrouded in uncertainty




					www.newscientist.com


----------



## teuchter (Aug 27, 2020)

Countries that responded best to Covid-19 had planned for 'Disease X', says top EU health expert
					

Exclusive interview with Sergio Brusin, principle expert at European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				




*



			Cases are now rising in many countries in Europe, how do you see the prospects for the coming winter?
		
Click to expand...

*


> My feeling, and the common opinion here at the ECDC, is that this resurgence we are seeing now will go ahead for quite a bit. And the risk is really linked to the behaviour of the population and the health policies. The countries that are able to test, contact trace and take measures quickly at a regional level will see a lower resurgence of cases.
> 
> *How bad do you think the resurgence in cases might get?*
> 
> ...


----------



## teuchter (Aug 27, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> This might be possible good news tho? Could it be less severe infection for people who were previously infected? Or just that hospitals are getting better at treatment? I hope so?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


If you read that article - I think they have given it a misleading headline. What we know is that fewer people are dying from it, but that's not the same thing as it becoming "less deadly". It's clear from the article that it's not at all certain whether, if you get Covid now, you are less likely to die from it compared to the likelihood some time ago.


----------



## Chz (Aug 27, 2020)

> the inevitable contradiction between what needs to be done to keep virus levels low, and what was deemed to be necessary for the economy.


Skulls for the economy throne!
Blood for the debt god!


----------



## elbows (Aug 27, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> This might be possible good news tho? Could it be less severe infection for people who were previously infected? Or just that hospitals are getting better at treatment? I hope so?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It will be months before I can take these possibilities more seriously.

Mostly because I dont think we had a good sense of how many infections there were in the first wave, and I would expect the current number of infections to be vastly lower than it was at the peak, so of course there are far less hospitalisations and deaths. Crude infection fatality rate or case fatality rate estimates are not reliable in my book, so I have no intention of jumping the gun on the idea it has become milder. There could also be a seasonal factor in disease severity for all we know, so have to wait for the seasons to change. And I already explained why the D614G mutation thing is not something I would use to paint a picture of a milder strain at this stage, and plenty of countries in Europe that had lots of death had lots of that strain present at the time.

I dont blame people for looking for sources of hope. Its not something I am looking for myself, for me the good news will come with the benefit of hindsight and after we have been through some tricky seasons, I'm utterly uninterested in clutching at straws at this stage. I look forward to the time when that changes for me, but it wont be for months yet.


----------



## elbows (Aug 27, 2020)

Plus I am tracking Spains hospital data, and its impossible for me to take those sorts of stories seriously when I am eyeballing that data closely.

Up until a week ago Spains data was only available in a somewhat wanky format (xxx date within previous 7 days type stuff) plus since the start of July they dont publish any data for weekends. They now publish additional hospital data in a more normal format, and although I will only have 6 days worth of that data when todays numbers come out, I will share my graphs of it for the first time later today.

In the meantime here is the aforementioned old format of data to provide some context. Note that this data only covers a period from late May onwards, so the bulk of the first wave is missing from it. This is for Spain as a whole:



This is for Madrid, although its far from the only region driving the change:


----------



## elbows (Aug 27, 2020)

OK here are examples of graphs created using the new format of data from Spain which I mentioned earlier. Source is page 3 of offiical daily reports like the one which I will link to, then me manually entering those into a spreadsheet every day. https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesiona...Cov/documentos/Actualizacion_194_COVID-19.pdf

Spain, and where it says total it means current number of patients, not cumulative counts of all patients ever:


Madrid:


Number of Covid-19 hospital patients by region:



This ends my series of posts of graphs about the hospital situation in Europe, since I was trying make a point and deliver news on this front and I've more than done that now. I will post again about such things if there is a notable change in trajectory or something new we can learn, but I'm not going to keep posting the same sort of numbers for the sake of it. And if I think there is a situation I need to show data for very regularly, I will find another thread for it. Thanks for bearing with me while I took up quite a lot of screen space in this thread with graphics in recent days.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 27, 2020)

It doesn't seem to be a super rapid rise though, and it seems to be driven by a few regions? Although still quite worrying. I really want to believe its finally going down


----------



## elbows (Aug 27, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> It doesn't seem to be a super rapid rise though, and it seems to be driven by a few regions? Although still quite worrying. I really want to believe its finally going down



We are at a stage where any rise that can be clearly demonstrated over time, beyond the background levels of the figure fluctuating, is currently highly newsworthy and of note.

Super rapid rises like those seen as the first waves really hit home in badly affected areas were a result of poor surveillance and then very high levels of existing cases, high levels of transmission between people, and a short amount of time needed for number of cases to double. Despite the various relaxations all over the place, the situation, peoples behaviour etc still should not resemble the situation the virus found itself in in February and the first part of March. So that is not what I would be expecting to see now, I dont expect the same sort of super rapid rises, not unless we completely lose control of the situation again.

And the way authorities will try to avoid losing control is by taking advantage of the much earlier warning signs that are available this time around. In this context things like the hospital data I have highlighted recently are the guide, and authorities will act on this stuff. They can get something of a grip on these things because the rises demonstrate a phase prior to that which almost instantly spirals completely out of control, and thus opportunities to act at a very different epidemic stage to that which authorities acted on last time.

As for regions, everything is driven by regions at the end of the day. Some of these countries only had staggering numbers of hospitalisations and deaths in a few regions the first time around, so I dont understand what sort of reassurance thats supposed to provide.

Unless people want to repeat past mistakes, its perfectly reasonable to see the recent Spanish data as being really bad and alarming, whilst also trying to fairly explain that the numbers involved do not resemble anything close to those seen during the first peak. Because the hideous levels seen in the first wave are not where the bar for where our ideas of what constitutes bad should be set, and to avoid a repeat of that horror the trigger point for action should come way earlier than last time.

2020 already involved painful lessons about what exponential growth means in practice in a bad pandemic. I wont be pleased if I have to keep explaining this again already. And the reality on the ground should be more complicated this time, leading to a far less clean example of exponential growth in action, because we have mitigation and authorities that will presumably intervene more this time. So the earlier disaster of a first wave is an easier way to study and learn those lessons. If you let the humble beginnings of exponential curves lull you into a false sense of security, then one day you wake up and discover the pathetic little mouse has become godzilla and its a disaster and only draconian tools are left in the toolbox.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 27, 2020)

Yeah things can spiral. I wasn't saying not to worry or do anything by the way. Just saying that things seem to be a bit more under control in terms of an increase in hospitalisation than they were in March.


----------



## elbows (Aug 27, 2020)

Yes I was just taking another opportunity to try to describe what sort of alarm I am ringing. I dont expect things like R or the doubling time or peoples behaviour and mixing patterns to be highly similar to what they were in March, so I dont expect the numbers to unfold at the same pace either.

And I've only been doing it so much because a 'well hospitalisations havent increased' narrative rather understandably formed around Europe in recent months, and so now that such things have changed in some places, I thought it worth drawing attention to in as notable way as I could. As I said earlier, I feel like I have done that now, and hopefully look forward to telling some stories about how these outbreaks were then gotten a handle on.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 27, 2020)

What do the coronavirus data from August tell us about the new spread of the virus in Spain? elbows just seen this very detailed article about hospitalisation data on Spain.


----------



## elbows (Aug 27, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> What do the coronavirus data from August tell us about the new spread of the virus in Spain? elbows just seen this very detailed article about hospitalisation data on Spain.



Good stuff, I'm not surprised they took some time in that article to address the shitty data systems & reporting.

I see they mention a website that tries to collate more reliable data. It does appear to be pretty good, I just scrolled down a bit and tried pressing various buttons in the hospital data section and it showed some very useful graphs indeed.









						Propagación del coronavirus en España por provincias
					

Análisis de la propagación del coronavirus (COVID-19) por provincias en España



					lab.montera34.com


----------



## Supine (Aug 28, 2020)

Potentially significant. A patient has been infected for a second time and was hospitalised at second go. Genetic analysis indicates covid mutations have already occured which means existing immunity didn't work. 





__





						SSRN Electronic Library
					





					papers.ssrn.com
				




Summary here:


----------



## 2hats (Aug 29, 2020)

> Doctors at the Children's National Hospital in Washington, DC have found that infected children can spread the SARS-CoV-2 virus for weeks even though they themselves show no COVID-19 symptoms. That means that children with only mild symptoms, or none at all, can unknowingly infect people around them.











						Asymptomatic children can spread coronavirus for weeks, study finds | DW | 29.08.2020
					

New US studies show viral loads of the coronavirus are especially high among children and youths, who can unknowingly spread it for weeks. What could that mean for schools trying to reopen?




					www.dw.com
				



doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.3996
doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2020.3988


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

Interpret this for me:



> Jambo is exploring the hypothesis that Africans have had more exposure to other coronaviruses that cause little more than colds *in humans*, which may provide some defense against COVID-19.







__





						AAAS
					






					www.sciencemag.org
				




e2a: The emboldened words, not the data.


----------



## 2hats (Aug 29, 2020)

Mation said:


> Interpret this for me


Cross-reactivity towards SARS-CoV-2?
doi:10.1016/S2666-5247(20)30098-7
doi:10.1101/2020.05.14.095414


----------



## Supine (Aug 29, 2020)

Mation said:


> Interpret this for me:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Tough place to live so the frail were already dead and it's a very young population?


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

I highlighted the salient words.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 29, 2020)

'in humans'


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 29, 2020)

Mation said:


> Interpret this for me:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I interpret that as humans in Africa had more exposure to other coronaviruses that cause little more than colds.


----------



## 2hats (Aug 29, 2020)

Mation said:


> I highlighted the salient words.


Coronaviridae are zoonotic. Like the papers cited, the literature differentiates human/avian/feline/chiroptine/etc coronaviruses and their varying effects across species.


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

Ok. This wasn't meant to be a trap. Having emboldened the words 'in humans' in the unedited version of the post, I thought it would be clear.

I'd have thought that Africans are humans.


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> I interpret that as humans in Africa had more exposure to other coronaviruses that cause little more than colds.


Would that not be sufficiently-well conveyed if you left 'in humans' out of the sentence?


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 29, 2020)

Unfortunately I suspect this take will age badly in any case. 

I suspect the reason why it hasn't hit as hard is due to lack of travel links and less population density (in Namibia where my mum grew up, it is larger than the uk yet only has around 2 million people). There's evidence that there's a lack of testing going on in some places too. I'm also guessing that in many parts of Africa, people are spending more time outdoors too which isn't ideal for the virus .

Some studies suggest that most people with covid don't actually spread it to large numbers of people if at all, so it actually takes large numbers of people arriving in a destination to cause a big outbreak, and if somewhere gets few visitors there might be one or two people arriving with COVID-19 and recovering without causing a huge issue.


----------



## Thora (Aug 29, 2020)

Mation said:


> Interpret this for me:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Coronaviruses affect other animals as well as humans?


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 29, 2020)

Mation said:


> Would that not be sufficiently-well conveyed if you left 'in humans' out of the sentence?



Exactly


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Aug 29, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Good question.  Its purely anecdotal when I look at the UK who is known as the sick man of Europe anyway.  Then the US and Central and a lot of South America have significant obesity problem and the problems associated with obesity (type 2 diabetes being a key one).  Obviously a lot of other factors involved in each country but the concept of being in good health before contracting the virus will give the best chance of survival has never really been in doubt as far as I can see.




Although there are a lot of reports from people who are self reporting ongoing symptoms many months after the acute stage, who also report that they were very fit indeed prior to infection.

There are several Facebook pages I’m a member of where “long haulers” - as they call themselves - discuss their experience, and many of them say that they were previously exercising regularly, from weekly yoga up to marathon level fitness and all points between.

There is a lot of discussion and speculation about long haul symptoms, and of course this is a self-selecting sample and they’re all self reporting, but there does seem to be something peculiar and worrying going on, especially amongst people who weren't so unwell during the acute stage as to need medical intervention. There does seem to be a correlation between fitness and long-term ongoing chronic inflammation issues following Covid-19.









						Long-Haulers Are Redefining COVID-19
					

Without understanding the lingering illness that some patients experience, we can’t understand the pandemic.




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## elbows (Aug 29, 2020)

2hats said:


> Coronaviridae are zoonotic. Like the papers cited, the literature differentiates human/avian/feline/chiroptine/etc coronaviruses and their varying effects across species.



Exactly. Its really unexceptional to see 'in humans' used in this context.

Searches for terms such as "coronaviruses in humans" yields plenty of results, for good reasons.

There are a bunch of reasons for this. One of them is that viruses we associate with respiratory diseases in humans may have different prominent symptoms and different main mode of transmission in animal hosts. eg animals getting the shits as the main feature and transmission via the faecal oral route.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Aug 29, 2020)

I take your point Mation, but I read it exactly as elbows has described.

Academic language is different to every day language, and can seem clumsy or overly specific.

Like papers that talk about “mortality and morbidity”. And the attention that was given to the word “outcome” earlier, which means a specific thing in medical terms, which is different to how it is used in lay terms.



But yes, that article could have -  or maybe should have - phrased it differently; and the question speaks to deep and problematic issues.


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I take your point Mation, but I read it exactly as elbows has described.
> 
> Academic language is different to every day language, and can seem clumsy or overly specific.
> 
> ...


I'm familiar with academic language having published original research papers in high impact neuroscience and psychophysics journals, and having worked in science communication for a decade.

This really wasn't meant to be a trap, and it's actually getting pretty upsetting now. The sentence basically says on the one hand Africans and on the other hand humans. It's not that I don't understand how you read it, but there is a bias in the way it was phrased that you (and others) obviously can't see.

Please don't make it worse by assuming that I'm the one who doesn't understand. It's a bias you missed. Examine it. Or don't, but don't patronise me with it.

(Not just you.)


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Aug 29, 2020)

I’d forgotten that you have scientific and academic experience and I apologise for that, and also for the resulting patronising tone in my post.

I did say that I take your point and I understand the issue. I fully agree that the language in the article is problematic. I’m sorry if I didn’t make that clear enough.

I gave it the benefit of the doubt because (I thought) I had interpreted it entirely and only in the context of academic language. However in light of the ongoing discussion I am now examining my own position and thought processes, and I’m grateful to you for pursuing and clarifying the issue.


----------



## Supine (Aug 29, 2020)

Ridiculous. There is nothing wrong with using the word humans when discussing diseases in humans.


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> I’d forgotten that you have scientific and academic experience and I apologise for that, and also for the resulting patronising tone in my post.
> 
> I did say that I take your point and I understand the issue. I fully agree that the language in the article is problematic. I’m sorry if I didn’t make that clear enough.
> 
> I gave it the benefit of the doubt because (I thought) I had interpreted it entirely and only in the context of academic language. However in light of the ongoing discussion I am now examining my own position and thought processes, and I’m grateful to you for pursuing and clarifying the issue.


Thank you. And yes, you did say you took my point, so that part of my reply was unfair to you. I mentally amalgamated everyone's responses. Apologies.


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

Supine said:


> Ridiculous. There is nothing wrong with using the word humans when discussing diseases in humans.


Nonsense. It's never acceptable. I certainly never mentioned the word humans in my papers.


----------



## elbows (Aug 29, 2020)

Mation said:


> This really wasn't meant to be a trap, and it's actually getting pretty upsetting now. The sentence basically says on the one hand Africans and on the other hand humans. It's not that I don't understand how you read it, but there is a bias in the way it was phrased that you (and others) obviously can't see.
> 
> Please don't make it worse by assuming that I'm the one who doesn't understand. It's a bias you missed. Examine it. Or don't, but don't patronise me with it.
> 
> (Not just you.)



I have experienced mental anguish from situations where thinly disguised bias was completely invisible to some people whose refusal to see it caused further despair.

I dont understand how I could possibly see the sentence in question as an example though.



> Jambo is exploring the hypothesis that Africans have had more exposure to other coronaviruses that cause little more than colds in humans, which may provide some defense against COVID-19.



That sentence is in no way differentiating Africans from humans. They are talking about coronaviruses that are perceived to cause no more than colds in humans, including all the humans of Africa. There is no concept of one hand, other hand in that part of the sentence.

The difference that is mentioned in that sentence is the idea that Africans may have had more exposure to such coronaviruses than people in other parts of the world. They experience them as colds, like all humans.


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> I have experienced mental anguish from situations where thinly disguised bias was completely invisible to some people whose refusal to see it caused further despair.
> 
> I dont understand how I could possibly see the sentence in question as an example though.
> 
> ...


It is clear that you can't see it, yes. And since you know what it feels like to see a bias that's invisible to others, why would you not just leave it at, ok I don't see it but maybe I'll think about it? (Not as a post to me, but as a thought to yourself.)

We've already established that the point you think I haven't understood could be conveyed perfectly well without using the added 'in humans' or, imo, losing any of its style. I hope we've also established that this isn't about the general use of the term in papers about humans.

The fact that _you_ can't see it doesn't mean it's not there.


----------



## elbows (Aug 29, 2020)

What additional thought an I going to give it? I am someone who has gone on about other coronaviruses that cause colds in humans myself, and it is not language I would dream of shying away from.


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> What additional thought an I going to give it? I am someone who has gone on about other coronaviruses that cause colds in humans myself, and it is not language I would dream of shying away from.


None. Clearly.

_whoosh_


----------



## elbows (Aug 29, 2020)

I spent time considering the sentence and what it actually said and already gave my thoughts on that. And now I feel badly hurt, a feeling which is not going to improve the quality of my output. Now I will attempt to get over it without feeling the need to spew many defensive words.


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> I spent time considering the sentence and what it actually said and already gave my thoughts on that. And now I feel badly hurt, a feeling which is not going to improve the quality of my output. Now I will attempt to get over it without feeling the need to spew many defensive words.


Wow.


----------



## two sheds (Aug 29, 2020)

To me, the test would be whether this works equally as well: 



> Jambo is exploring the hypothesis that Europeans have had more exposure to other coronaviruses that cause little more than colds in humans, which may provide some defense against COVID-19.


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

two sheds said:


> To me, the test would be whether this works equally as well:


The honest answer is that I'd probably just have found it funny as a sentence that contrasts humans with Europeans (and would still want to see it re-written).

It's probably the combination of me being an English teacher who is very sensitive to how racial stuff is phrased and also having a science background.

If it had occurred to me that the phrasing wouldn't be obviously read the same way I did, I probably wouldn't have posted it on this particular thread.


----------



## elbows (Aug 29, 2020)

Here is the paper that that bit of the article comes from:





__





						Why is There Low Morbidity and Mortality of COVID-19 in Africa?
					





					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				




And the part in question:



> The last hypothesis is that a population across Africa has some level of SARS-CoV-2 immunity because of prior exposure to other coronaviruses. As with SARS-COV-2, a spillover of zoonotic coronaviruses into the human population has been recorded several times before, and mounting evidence suggests that other strains closely related to human coronaviruses are circulating within bat populations in Africa and elsewhere.28–32 Although a novel outbreak of coronavirus has not been reported in the region, the continuous contact between bats, livestock, and humans in rural Africa may have resulted in exposure to these emergent coronaviruses and development of humoral cross-reactivity.21 Antibodies that target conserved epitopes across virus families have been identified in humans, as shown for filoviruses where identification of antibodies that cross-neutralize multiple _Ebolaviruses_ resulted in the development of promising pan-_Ebolavirus_ therapeutic antibodies.



Wow at me all you like Mation, you made a mistake and I'm not going to learn much from it.


----------



## elbows (Aug 29, 2020)

Other than the pain of false accusations that is, aaaaararrrghhhhhh the pain. It sucks. I'm sorry that the article caused you pain, and that my interpretation of it added to the pain rather than helping it diminish. Now how do I get rid of my pain?


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> Here is the paper that that bit of the article comes from:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The paper isn't written in the same way as the article, and doesn't seem biased, you're right. I wasn't talking about the paper, though. There is a bias in how the article was phrased. And I also have a bias in seeing it, both personally and professionally.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Aug 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> Other than the pain of false accusations that is, aaaaararrrghhhhhh the pain. It sucks. I'm sorry that the article caused you pain, and that my interpretation of it added to the pain rather than helping it diminish. Now how do I get rid of my pain?




This isn’t a good look elbows


----------



## elbows (Aug 29, 2020)

Mation said:


> The paper isn't written in the same way as the article, and doesn't seem biased, you're right. I wasn't talking about the paper, though. There is a bias in how the article was phrased. And I also have a bias in seeing it, both personally and professionally.



Thanks for explaining. I hope you dont mind if we zoom in further to the area of confusion as I think we are close to some sort of resolution. Something you said in response to two sheds test of converting the sentence to mention Europeans instead of Africans might be the key:



Mation said:


> The honest answer is that I'd probably just have found it funny as a sentence that contrasts humans with Europeans (and would still want to see it re-written).



Its the 'contrasts' bit. I dont see which part of the contentious sentence in question actually involves making that sort of contrast at all. I know absolutely nothing about how to teach English. What sort of sentence structures can be used to contrast things? Whatever they are, I have struggled to find them in the sentence in question, and so we have found ourselves having this conversation today. I'm sorry it didnt go very well


----------



## elbows (Aug 29, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> This isn’t a good look elbows



It was honest and all I could manage at the time. I thought it might be better to express pain and anguish that I felt directly, rather than just have it sponsor all manner of other crap spilling out of my gob. You are of course entitled to your opinion that it is not a good look, but it is mine and genuine and I will own it.


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> Other than the pain of false accusations that is, aaaaararrrghhhhhh the pain. It sucks. I'm sorry that the article caused you pain, and that my interpretation of it added to the pain rather than helping it diminish. Now how do I get rid of my pain?


What accusation?

In any case, stepping away from this is probably a good idea for both of us. 

I should have posted on a different thread and could have just said what I thought of it rather than asking people to interpret it.


----------



## Thora (Aug 29, 2020)

Rather than it being “Africans as opposed to humans”, isn’t it talking about “Africans as opposed to Asians/Europeans” being exposed to “coronaviruses that cause colds in humans” vs “in animals”?


----------



## Mation (Aug 29, 2020)

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

^ This is a line. I hope drawn under it. Let's all step away and do nicer things x


----------



## elbows (Aug 29, 2020)

Mation said:


> What accusation?
> 
> In any case, stepping away from this is probably a good idea for both of us.
> 
> I should have posted on a different thread and could have just said what I thought of it rather than asking people to interpret it.



That people such as myself were unable to see racial bias in a sentence. As opposed to my position that there was no bias of that sort there to see, so thats why I dont see it.

I am happy to step away from this now, thanks for listening.


----------



## elbows (Aug 29, 2020)

Bwaaaahhhhh I went to Facebook to get away from it all and try to relax and I swear this was one of the first things that came up on my feed. I had to share it here, I just couldnt resist, and hopefully the sense of humour involved is not unique to me otherwise I'm fucking up again by posting it here and now. And most of the humour just stems from the timing of it. I also had to remove someones photo and name from it.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 30, 2020)

India sets a new record.   



> India on Sunday set a new virus record when it reported 78,761 new infections in 24 hours, according to health ministry figures, passing the United States for the world’s highest single-day rise.
> 
> India, home to 1.3 billion people, is already the world’s third-most infected nation with more than 3.5 million cases, behind the US and Brazil.
> 
> It has also reported more than 63,000 deaths.











						India sets world’s highest single-day rise with 78,761 new coronavirus cases
					

NEW DELHI: India on Sunday set a new virus record when it reported 78,761 new infections in 24 hours, according to health ministry figures, passing the United States for the world’s highest single-day rise. India, home to 1.3 billion people, is already the world’s third-most infected nation with...




					www.arabnews.com


----------



## teuchter (Aug 30, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> India sets a new record.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


More rubbish news reporting, failing to present figures in context of population size. It's misleading to say it's the world's "third most infected nation". Per head of population, it's nothing like that.


----------



## elbows (Aug 30, 2020)

Places like Argentina have been getting in the news and I can see why from that graph, but I havent had any time to read about Argentina myself.


----------



## elbows (Aug 30, 2020)

Also I dont think there is a perfect measure available to us either when it comes to positive cases.

Normalised by population has some strengths but like the other measures can still end up being unfair or misleading in several ways. If there was a tidy way to also normalise by resting regime/test capacity that would help. And a lot of the time the big outbreaks are regional, and we could improve our view of the scale and pace of such outbreaks by zooming in and looking at regional numbers normalised by the size of that regions population. But then there is always the question of how far it is appropriate to zoom in, and that is going to vary.


----------



## teuchter (Aug 30, 2020)

India's population is so much bigger than most countries though, you can only really hope to make a start at trying to understand a comparison with other places if you normalise for that first.

I've just noticed that my favoured graph site now shows % test positivity for some countries, which is perhaps interesting to look at because it ought to remove distortions from population size and testing rate to some extent, although I'm sure there are all sorts of ways this can be misleading too.


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 30, 2020)

What website is this?


----------



## teuchter (Aug 30, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> What website is this?











						An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC
					

An interactive, data-forward visualization of COVID-19 data by Prof. Wade at The University of Illinois.  Updated daily.




					91-divoc.com


----------



## frogwoman (Aug 30, 2020)

teuchter said:


> An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC
> 
> 
> An interactive, data-forward visualization of COVID-19 data by Prof. Wade at The University of Illinois.  Updated daily.
> ...



Spain not looking good


----------



## elbows (Aug 30, 2020)

teuchter said:


> I've just noticed that my favoured graph site now shows % test positivity for some countries, which is perhaps interesting to look at because it ought to remove distortions from population size and testing rate to some extent, although I'm sure there are all sorts of ways this can be misleading too.



Yeah its an important one that authorities often take seriously and use to reduce the chances of them misinterpreting some of their own data.


----------



## elbows (Aug 30, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Spain not looking good



That sort of thing is why I started looking at their hospital data and didnt react very well to the idea that the hospital data didnt look that horrendous.

Partly because of how bad the number of cases data looks, but partly because when we look at the current case rates compared to the first peak on their graph, we dont really know how to compair them fairly. It seems reasonable to believe that although things have gotten bad in Spain again, that they are capable of detecting more cases now than they were for the first peaks rise, and that therefore the current number of actual cases has not yet risen to the same level as really happened in the first peak. But to what extent, how am I supposed to recalibrate the data to take account of this fairly? I dont think I can, other than by taking percentage positive rates over time into account, and augmenting the picture with hospital data and death data.


----------



## Hyperdark (Aug 31, 2020)

Wrong Thread (Thanks CS)


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 31, 2020)

Hyperdark - you should put that on the - Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion - thread.


----------



## ska invita (Aug 31, 2020)




----------



## frogwoman (Aug 31, 2020)

Seems to have gone down a bit in the last week tho? I hope so anyway?


----------



## Supine (Aug 31, 2020)

Interesting study into front line workers antibody levels and whether they had symptoms. Asymptomatic carriers are clearly a huge problem in.tacking covid.









						Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Among Frontline Health Care ...
					

This report describes the prevalence of antibody evidence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection among frontline United States health care personnel.




					www.cdc.gov


----------



## zahir (Sep 1, 2020)

Scotland introduces restrictions for people returning from Greece.









						Coronavirus: Quarantine restrictions for travellers from Greece
					

Ministers say there has been a "significant rise" in Covid cases being brought into Scotland from Greece.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




The issue is partly about the outbreak on Zakynthos. Reporting of cases there has been called into question by the local branch of Syriza. There’s a clear incentive for the Greek government to underreport cases to delay the introduction of quarantine restrictions and protect the tourist industry.









						Zakynthos:- Opposition party SYRIZA requests Government to “give the real picture of the covid pandemic.” - Zakynthos Informer
					

In a press release by opposition party SYRIZA the request for the actual picture of how the pandemic




					zakynthosinformer.com


----------



## zahir (Sep 1, 2020)

Welsh government asking travellers returning from Zakynthos to self-isolate for 14 days.









						Covid-19: People returning to Wales from Zante asked to self-isolate amid "cluster" of cases linked to Greek island
					

PEOPLE arriving into Wales from Zante/Zakynthos will be asked to self-isolate for two weeks, the Welsh Government has announced.




					www.leaderlive.co.uk


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Sep 2, 2020)

Interesting looking article about pandemics and stuff.









						COVID-19 Might Mean Humanity Has Entered An Age Of Pandemics, Tony Fauci Warned
					

“A deadly barrage” of pandemics is coming, a new report warns.




					www.buzzfeednews.com
				










Full paper - 
	

			https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)31012-6#%20


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 2, 2020)

__





						Give a gift to support MAP's work
					

Support MAP's work and help Palestinians living under occupation and as refugees




					www.map.org.uk
				




Donate to medical aid for Palestinians here. The spread of the virus is looking quite alarming and Gaza don't really have the facilities to deal with a covid outbreak


----------



## William of Walworth (Sep 2, 2020)

farmerbarleymow said:


> Interesting looking article about pandemics and stuff.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



_Somewhat_ less pessimistic outcomes/options _might_ also be available, _possibly_ .......
Note complacency-avoiding caveats 

I do think that the above article, whilst fascinating and also scary, is (possibly???) at risk (only that?) of being *just* as speculative as other papers and possibilities out there, about great vaccines and cures being available by quite-soon ......

Premature assumptions are worth avoiding in *both* directions IMO.
I appreciate that both pessimism and optimism are pretty easy to give in to ....


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 3, 2020)

Fuck, India has had 82k cases so far today


----------



## cupid_stunt (Sep 3, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Fuck, India has had 82k cases so far today



And, they have only tested around 33k per million, putting them at the 120 position on the worldometers scoreboard, well behind the likes of the UK & US on around 250k each, both of which have been hopeless.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 3, 2020)

Top of the worldometers scoreboard is not really somewhere you want to be 


cupid_stunt said:


> And, they have only tested around 33k per million, putting them at the 120 position on the worldometers scoreboard, well behind the likes of the UK & US on around 250k, both of which have been hopeless.


D


----------



## cupid_stunt (Sep 3, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Top of the worldometers scoreboard is not really somewhere you want to be



On tests per million, that's exactly where you want to be.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 3, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> On tests per million, that's exactly where you want to be.


There's a few places that seem to have tested their whole population several times over.


----------



## miss direct (Sep 3, 2020)

Turkey's figures are getting worse and worse - at least, the officially released stats are. Could it be that as the tourist season draws to a close, officials are actually letting the real number of cases and deaths come out?


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 4, 2020)

*



			
				worldometers said:
			
		


			10,476 new cases
		
Click to expand...

*



			
				worldometers said:
			
		

> and *184 new deaths* in *Spain*.  Data for cases from Aug. 24 to Aug. 31 reflects only the cases already validated by the Ministry of Health in its daily PDF report. As the validation process takes time to complete, additional cases are expected to be added retroactively once the weekly historical dataset revision will be released by the Ministry of Health on Thursday, Sept. 3. [source].


----------



## elbows (Sep 4, 2020)

Yeah it since hit 256 for the last week in the daily report.

This is what it currently looks like when expressed as cases per day, although as that quote mentions, there is extra lag in their reporting system.



			https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov/documentos/Actualizacion_200_COVID-19.pdf
		



Various hospital indicators for Spain remain on a similar trajectory to last time I spoke about that, so no more graphs from me on that for now. But the rises in hospitalisations, intensive care cases etc obviously imply more deaths in future.


----------



## zahir (Sep 5, 2020)

Skiing and Covid.









						‘Everyone was drenched in the virus’: was this Austrian ski resort a Covid-19 ground zero?
					

At least 6,000 people say they caught coronavirus in Ischgl, dubbed ‘Ibiza on ice’, and their class action is gaining pace. Those who were there recall a terrifying week




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## two sheds (Sep 5, 2020)

zahir said:


> Skiing and Covid.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



One interesting bit (from many scary ones): 

"“In Iceland, we allowed the doctors to take over from politicians for a few weeks,” he says. “That really made the difference.” Iceland started offering Covid-19 tests at the end of January, carrying them out on those with and without symptoms in the months that followed, giving it the highest per capita testing rate at the beginning of the pandemic outbreak."


----------



## retribution (Sep 6, 2020)

Melbourne's case numbers have been steadily in decline since the beginning of a strict lockdown 5 weeks ago (which came out of  another less-strict lockdown I can't remember how many weeks ago). There were 63 cases statewide yesterday, the majority of those in Melbourne (population 5 million). In theory our lockdown was meant to end next Sunday but today they've announced the "road map" to a "COVID normal" which means we're basically in lockdown for another seven weeks 

On the "plus" side, the roadmap is really quite clear about what numbers need to look like for the lockdown to be slackened. It basically looks like we're going for elimination: if we have 14 straight days of no new cases by 23 *November *eek then people will be allowed more than one household in their home at a time.

I'm pretty sympathetic to the politics of it all but was surprised at how long our route of lockdown seems to be. This is getting looonnngggg.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Sep 6, 2020)

There's various articles describing France as the new European hotspot, so I've just looked at the rolling 7-day average of daily new cases, and it seems Spain is getting on top of it. having peaked at 7435 on 26th Aug. & dropped to 2933 yesterday, whereas France continues to go up, increasing between the same dates from 4077 to 6454, an increase of almost 60%.

Mind you the UK increased during that period by about 50%, from 1107 to 1631.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Sep 6, 2020)

Allez les bleus!


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Sep 6, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> There's various articles describing France as the new European hotspot, so I've just looked at the rolling 7-day average of daily new cases, and it seems Spain is getting on top of it. having peaked at 7435 on 26th Aug. & dropped to 2933 yesterday, whereas France continues to go up, increasing between the same dates from 4077 to 6454, an increase of almost 60%.
> 
> Mind you the UK increased during that period by about 50%, from 1107 to 1631.


Currently there are differences in hospitalisation though. So Spain has topped 7k in total, which is a quarter of its very high peak, so still pretty high, reflected in deaths rising to 40-odd per day. France had on average just over 200 per day hospital admittances last week, which is still quite low - represents an overall rise in hospital numbers of around 100 per day. So France isn't out of control... yet. 

UK hospitalisation rate is still around 100 per day. Total in hospital has bottomed out at 750-odd currently. Stopped falling but not rising significantly... yet. 

Caveat to all that would be that Spain's initial case rises were not accompanied by hospitalisation rises. Those came a while later as, perhaps, the young had time to spread it to the old.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 6, 2020)

Case fatality rate is about 1 in 100 isn't it? So if there are 40 deaths in a day it means 4,000 people might have caught it in that day unless I've misunderstood something?


----------



## redsquirrel (Sep 6, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Case fatality rate is about 1 in 100 isn't it? So if there are 40 deaths in a day it means 4,000 people might have caught it in that day unless I've misunderstood something?


Don't think you can assume that FW, remember there will be a lag between catching it, hospitalisation and death. And that lad will be different for different patients.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Sep 6, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Case fatality rate is about 1 in 100 isn't it? So if there are 40 deaths in a day it means 40,000 people might have caught it in that day unless I've misunderstood something?


Depends who is getting it. Mortality rate in over 75s is around 1 in 10. In children it's more like 1 in 100,000. Antibody tests have been showing that,  although it is mostly older people dying, a higher proportion of younger people have been catching it.

Eta: there is also perhaps some reason for optimism that the mortality rate is falling. Fewer deaths per hospitalisation in Spain atm than there were in it first wave.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 6, 2020)

redsquirrel said:


> Don't think you can assume that FW, remember there will be a lag between catching it, hospitalisation and death. And that lad will be different for different patients.


I guess the 1 in 100 number is going to be different for different groups of patients too.


----------



## LDC (Sep 6, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I guess the 1 in 100 number is going to be different for different groups of patients too.



The survival stats for the over 75s are quite scary tbh.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Sep 6, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> The survival stats for the over 75s are quite scary tbh.


Yep,  especially when you factor in that it's actually the group with the most asymptomatic cases. Mortality for symptomatic covid in that group is more like 1 in 5.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 6, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Yep,  especially when you factor in that it's actually the group with the most asymptomatic cases.



Seriously?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Sep 6, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Seriously?


According to antibody test results yes.


----------



## LDC (Sep 6, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> According to antibody test results yes.



Completely guessing, but I wonder if that's partly due to difficult history taking from older people, and picking out specific and new symptoms from underlying ongoing health issues....? So not asymptomatic as such, but harder to pinpoint. Classic cliched old person fallen down the stairs and with a broken hip just saying it's a bit sore kinda thing...


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Sep 6, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Completely guessing, but I wonder if that's partly due to difficult history taking from older people, and picking out specific and new symptoms from underlying ongoing health issues....? So not asymptomatic as such, but harder to pinpoint. Classic cliched old person fallen down the stairs and with a broken hip just saying it's a bit sore kinda thing...


Could be yeah. All these estimates have high degrees of uncertainty.


----------



## elbows (Sep 6, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> According to antibody test results yes.



Which stats show that?

The UK blood-donor ones dont, they are pretty much the opposite of what you suggest:


From https://assets.publishing.service.g...COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_36_FINAL.pdf


----------



## elbows (Sep 6, 2020)

It is a complex subject though, and for example I'm sure I've read care home outbreak studies where there were plenty of asymptomatic residents who tested positive, not just asymptomatic staff. So a lack of symptoms is not reserved for the young only.


----------



## elbows (Sep 6, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Currently there are differences in hospitalisation though. So Spain has topped 7k in total, which is a quarter of its very high peak, so still pretty high, reflected in deaths rising to 40-odd per day. France had on average just over 200 per day hospital admittances last week, which is still quite low - represents an overall rise in hospital numbers of around 100 per day. So France isn't out of control... yet.
> 
> UK hospitalisation rate is still around 100 per day. Total in hospital has bottomed out at 750-odd currently. Stopped falling but not rising significantly... yet.
> 
> Caveat to all that would be that Spain's initial case rises were not accompanied by hospitalisation rises. Those came a while later as, perhaps, the young had time to spread it to the old.



I'm glad you are keeping an eye on those numbers, I dont like talking about them on my own and I want people to double-check the pictures I present.

Where did you get the peak hospital number for the first wave in Spain? Their data was a mess during that period and I dont have good numbers until some point in May, when they were well past the peak, and even then the data format was not good till a few weeks ago. Up until April they were initially publishing hospital numbers by region as if they were cumulative totals of all hospitalised cases so far. But then numbers for a couple of those regions started to fall, which obviously shouldnt happen with cumulative totals, and then they started putting small print in about how a bunch of the regions were showing current numbers, not overall totals. But not all the regions, so it was a big mess. I could tell that Madrid peaked at around 15000 people in hospital because that was one of the regions that was reporting current numbers not totals, but I never found an overall peak hospital number for Spain as a whole.

Its funny that I dont actually agree about the usual lag between cases rises and hospitalisations when it comes to Spain during their virus resurgence. The delay was very small, smaller than I think we are used to seeing in this sort of data. Now I havent been tracking their daily number of cases myself, I just referred to a graph on worldometer for that. Daily positive cases increased by some stage in June, but didnt reach the sort of numbers where we would take note until July. And by 14th July I can see the number of 'cases hospitalised in the last 7 days' start to rise in a pretty consistent way. Modest at first for sure, with the figure on July 14th being about 10 times lower than the equaivalent 7 day total for September 3rd. But it was there and quite clear from quite early on, unlike what we often seem to see.

One reason for this might be partially explained by some other data. I believe the following numbers are for the period of May 10th onwards, so dont include the first peak, but rather everything from May 10th onwards when they presumably got their data in slightly better shape. Anyway the reason I am posting it is to point out that hospital figures are not simply driven by the old and not the young, at least not to the extent that people tend to end up thinking. Especially when very large numbers of young people are catching it, since a small percentage of a large number is still a substantial number.


From https://www.isciii.es/QueHacemos/Se... COVID-19. Nº 42_03 de septiembre de 2020.pdf


----------



## elbows (Sep 6, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> France had on average just over 200 per day hospital admittances last week, which is still quite low - represents an overall rise in hospital numbers of around 100 per day. So France isn't out of control... yet.



Yeah I've been looking into that. I'd say the numbers in hospital for France are somewhat affected by the fact that in a number of regions the overall numbers in hospital were still falling, providing a fair bit of room for the falls to offset the increases. And this hasnt changed much in most regions yet. Although when I am saying 'a fair bit of room' this is because Im also assuming thats because there was still some downwards pressure on numbers as people who had been in hospital for ages were still finally coming out of that category in fair numbers. So it is certainly a good idea to look at daily new hospitalisations figures instead, as you have done. And when I graph those by region, we can see that the increases seen recently have been driven by a couple of regions so far. I'll need to start studying their number of positive cases per day per region in order to predict whether this picture will change in the near future, ie whether many other regions will start to show obvious rises soon.

Numbers currently in hospital by region (I didnt get round to entering all the data from before July to this yet):


Number of hospital admission per day:



Number of hospital admissions per day in rolling 7 day averages format, so basically just another way to show the data from the previous graph:


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 6, 2020)

India has had 91k new infections today and 90k the day before that! Fuck


----------



## elbows (Sep 6, 2020)

A rare glimpse of someone in the UK media actually getting in on the European hospital situation and what it might mean for the UK angle. I suppose we will see more of this and less need for me to drone on, if this sort of thing is now part of what they are being briefed by the government etc.

From analysis by Hugh Pym within the following article.



> What Matt Hancock and health officials are worried about is that the UK might follow the same path as France and Spain, where increases in infections amongst younger adults led after a few weeks to higher numbers of admissions to hospitals for older and more vulnerable patients.











						Coronavirus: Further 2,988 cases confirmed in UK
					

The largest daily number of positive tests since 22 May is "concerning", the health secretary says.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## zahir (Sep 6, 2020)

The situation in Greece is far worse than it was earlier in the year. There’s also an increase in younger people being hospitalised.









						Greece ‘s Covid Observatory: Declining age of ICU patients, increase in deaths, hospitalizations - Keep Talking Greece
					

The latest surge in the coronavirus cases in Greece is showing a tendency toward stabilization but d




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com
				





> The latest surge in the coronavirus cases in Greece is showing a tendency toward stabilization but deaths and intensive care hospitalizations, especially among young people, are on the rise, the country’s Covid Observatory said in its 13th report on Friday.





> The report that provides details on the cases, tests and population movements, underlined that the extensive spread of the virus among younger people is worrying and reveals that the higher percentage of cases is aged under 40.
> 
> At the same time, the large number of relatively younger patients that have been intubated, has lowered the average age of those intubated due to Covid-19 to 39 years old.




ETA: but see the comment from elbows below.


----------



## elbows (Sep 7, 2020)

zahir said:


> The situation in Greece is far worse than it was earlier in the year. There’s also an increase in younger people being hospitalised.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The following bit didnt sound right:



> At the same time, the large number of relatively younger patients that have been intubated, has lowered the average age of those intubated due to Covid-19 to 39 years old.



So I checked. This is the first time I am looking at official reports and data from Greece. So maybe I will make a mistake too. But it looks like they made a massive mistake with that reporting. I found the 13th report and machine translated a bit and it actually said:



> Extensive dispersal at younger ages continues to be of particular concern. This is reflected both in the increased number of cases under the age of 40 and in the influx of intubated severe cases in relatively young age groups. Specifically, the average age of cases is 39 years.



From 13η Έκθεση Προόδου Παρατηρητηρίου | CoVid19.gov.gr

And then I attempted to double-check my facts by looking at intubation numbers in daily reports here:





__





						Ημερήσιες Εκθέσεις COVID-19 2021 - Εθνικός Οργανισμός Δημόσιας Υγείας
					






					eody.gov.gr
				




And it looked to me like as of the latest numbers, there was currently nobody under 40 intubated (12 people 40-64, 29 people 65+).


----------



## elbows (Sep 7, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> There's various articles describing France as the new European hotspot, so I've just looked at the rolling 7-day average of daily new cases, and it seems Spain is getting on top of it. having peaked at 7435 on 26th Aug. & dropped to 2933 yesterday, whereas France continues to go up, increasing between the same dates from 4077 to 6454, an increase of almost 60%.
> 
> Mind you the UK increased during that period by about 50%, from 1107 to 1631.



If you see the sort of sudden and dramatic falls as you saw in the case numbers for Spain, its best to assume its a data issue or a testing system issue.

In this case I'm afraid the more recent numbers for Spain are incomplete, as per comments on the worldometer site:



> From Aug. 31 onward, figures for daily new cases only include cases already validated by the Ministry of Health in the daily PDF report. Since the validation process takes time to complete, additional cases are expected to be added retroactively once the weekly historical dataset revision is released by the Ministry of Health on Thursday, Sept. 10. Data up to Aug. 30 reflects the latest release of the official "Historical Series of Cases by Autonomous Community" dataset released by the Ministry of Health [source] [source]



edited to add- it isnt likely to be only a few cases added retroactively either. I went backed and looked at some of the daily data for a recent period that we do actually have more complete data for now, and the daily numbers were many thousands short of the more complete numbers for those dates that were eventually published. It is reasonable to expect that when better data is available for early September, it will show a continued rise, a levelling off or a modest fall, rather than the huge drop presently shown by charts that are misleading without the smallprint.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 7, 2020)

Mexico Runs Out Of Death Certificates Due To High COVID-19 Death Toll
					

Mexico has ordered the printing of 1.1 million additional death certificates as the country runs out of the essential document due to the high death toll brought by COVID-19.




					www.latintimes.com
				




But yeah 'it's just flu...'


----------



## elbows (Sep 8, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says is there any truth to this?



Recently I remembered this from June because at the time I checked and the shithead saying it was also Berlusconis doctor, as I mentioned in response back then. And I note that the shit idea he was peddling then that the virus has lost its potency was nowhere to be found months later when the very same doctor advised Berlusconi to go to hospital.

 1h ago 17:12 



> “All monitored parameters... are reassuring,” said his doctor Alberto Zangrillo, adding that his medical condition was in “constant favourable evolution”.





> Following a check-up on Thursday evening at Berlusconi’s home, Zangrillo insisted that the former PM go to the hospital the same night, later saying his patient was “at risk because of his age and previous illnesses”.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Sep 8, 2020)

but, will it stick to the teflon don?


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 9, 2020)

900k deaths


----------



## editor (Sep 9, 2020)

Italians keen to show the world that they can do stupid too


----------



## elbows (Sep 10, 2020)

elbows said:


> Recently I remembered this from June because at the time I checked and the shithead saying it was also Berlusconis doctor, as I mentioned in response back then. And I note that the shit idea he was peddling then that the virus has lost its potency was nowhere to be found months later when the very same doctor advised Berlusconi to go to hospital.
> 
> 1h ago 17:12



And now.....









						Silvio Berlusconi says he is fighting 'hellish' case of coronavirus
					

Former Italy PM claims doctors have told him he is ‘No 1’ in terms of severity of viral load




					www.theguardian.com
				






> Silvio Berlusconi has said doctors at the hospital treating him for Covid-19 told him he was “No 1” for the severity of his viral load and that he is fighting to emerge from a “hellish” illness.





> Zangrillo, who is also Briatore’s doctor, provoked widespread criticism in late May after claiming coronavirus “no longer exists clinically”. He appeared to acknowledge his error during an interview on the Cartabianca current affairs programme on Tuesday.
> 
> “I said that the virus is clinically dead; I made a mea culpa for an out-of-tune expression but I repeat it in meaning,” he said. “I have always called for common sense: if someone goes to a nightclub without a mask and without taking precautions, I don’t think it’s my fault.”


----------



## spring-peeper (Sep 10, 2020)

This should be a cautionary tale.
They trace one infected covid at a cottage party, and the spread is now at 40.









						One illness at cottage party led to 40 confirmed COVID-19 cases: Dr. Etches
					

Ottawa's medical officer of health, Dr. Vera Etches, shared a cautionary tale at Wednesday's city council meeting about the spread of COVID-19.



					ottawa.ctvnews.ca
				






> " You have a group of 10 friends who were all attending a party at a cottage. There was one person who developed cold-like symptoms while at the cottage party and then tested positive on their return home," Dr. Etches said. "Subsequently, seven of those friends tested positive for COVID-19."
> ...
> "Within 9 days one person with symptoms became 40 confirmed people who tested positive," she said. "These friends went back to their own homes and the infection spread to people who were in their homes, sometimes the vulnerable population, people who needed attend emergency rooms for care."
> 
> ...




eta: Ottawa is an hour away from where I live....I'm out in the country...where I can not see my neighbours....surrounded by trees


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 10, 2020)

> 96,760 new cases and 1,213 new deaths in India [source] [source]



Fuck!


----------



## Miss-Shelf (Sep 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> New China virus: Cases triple as infection spreads to Beijing and Shanghai
> 
> 
> This comes as China confirms that a new strain of coronavirus can pass from person to person.
> ...



Accidentally clicked the start of the thread 

This needs some sort of award in the interval forum 

Historical post of the year in the before times


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 10, 2020)

Yeah weltweit 's post needs to be in a museum.


----------



## weltweit (Sep 10, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Yeah weltweit 's post needs to be in a museum.


I sometimes feel like all of me should be in one


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 10, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I sometimes feel like all of me should be in one



'seems very infectious and might be spreading'

This is all your fault


----------



## weltweit (Sep 10, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> 'seems very infectious and might be spreading'
> 
> This is all your fault


TBF it had been spreading since December and that post was IIRC 20th Jan.


----------



## sojourner (Sep 11, 2020)

A question about stats on the Zoe app I've just started using.  The news stated that Sunday's new cases were 2988, but the app says 3610, which is considerably higher.  Anyone know why?  I know that King's are feeding this data to the govt, so am wondering why the big difference.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 11, 2020)

Surely the app is recording people with symptoms as opposed to actually tested


----------



## Thora (Sep 11, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Surely the app is recording people with symptoms as opposed to actually tested


It asks you if you have had a test.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 11, 2020)

I haven't used it for a while but didn't it say something like 'x number of  people with symptomatic covid in the UK' by which it meant anyone with symptoms? I didn't know it was only counting people who had had a test.


----------



## Ms Ordinary (Sep 11, 2020)

If it was counting anyone reporting symptoms, I'd expect the difference to be much bigger than that though, given how hard it is to access a test, and that a proportion of people with symptoms will end up testing negative.


----------



## Supine (Sep 12, 2020)

I've got a lot of time for Sweden's take on corona virus. It'll take a couple of years to assess whether it was good or not. 









						Anders Tegnell and the Swedish Covid experiment | Free to read
					

The controversial epidemiologist believes lockdown is ‘using a hammer to kill a fly’.  Could he be proved right?




					www.ft.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Sep 13, 2020)

France reported over 10,000 new cases yesterday, the highest ever, more worrying is the raise in hospital admissions.   



> Over the past week there have been 2,432 hospital admissions for COVID-19 in France, including 417 patients taken to intensive care units, the country's health ministry said.



As a comparison, the UK currently has a total of 884 patients in hospital, and 79 on on ventilation. (LINK)









						Coronavirus: France reports highest number of daily COVID cases since pandemic began
					

It is the first time that COVID-19 infections have topped 10,000 in France in a single day.




					news.sky.com


----------



## 2hats (Sep 13, 2020)

COVID-19, children, and schools: overlooked and at risk, Hyde Z., Med J Aust


> Abstract: It is widely thought that children are much less susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection than adults and do not play a substantial role in transmission. However, emerging research suggests this perception is unfounded. Seroprevalence and contact tracing studies show children are similarly vulnerable and transmit the virus to a meaningful degree. Research suggesting otherwise is hampered by substantial bias. Additionally, large clusters in school settings have been reported, with implications for the control of community transmission. Risk-reduction strategies must be implemented in schools as a matter of urgency.











						COVID-19, children, and schools: overlooked and at risk
					

COVID-19, children, and schools: overlooked and at risk




					www.mja.com.au


----------



## 2hats (Sep 13, 2020)

Hypothesis that mask wearing might aid immunity through very low dose exposure to SARS-CoV-2 (and this is manifesting itself to some degree as an increasing proportion of mild/asymptomatic cases).


> Recent virologic, epidemiologic, and ecologic data have led to the hypothesis that facial masking may also reduce the severity of disease among people who do become infected. This possibility is consistent with a long-standing theory of viral pathogenesis, which holds that the severity of disease is proportionate to the viral inoculum received.
> 
> If the viral inoculum matters in determining the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection, an additional hypothesized reason for wearing facial masks would be to reduce the viral inoculum to which the wearer is exposed and the subsequent clinical impact of the disease. Since masks can filter out some virus-containing droplets (with filtering capacity determined by mask type), masking might reduce the inoculum that an exposed person inhales. If this theory bears out, population-wide masking, with any type of mask that increases acceptability and adherence might contribute to increasing the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections that are asymptomatic. The typical rate of asymptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 was estimated to be 40% by the CDC in mid-July, but asymptomatic infection rates are reported to be higher than 80% in settings with universal facial masking, which provides observational evidence for this hypothesis. Countries that have adopted population-wide masking have fared better in terms of rates of severe Covid-related illnesses and death, which, in environments with limited testing, suggests a shift from symptomatic to asymptomatic infections. Another experiment in the Syrian hamster model simulated surgical masking of the animals and showed that with simulated masking, hamsters were less likely to get infected, and if they did get infected, they either were asymptomatic or had milder symptoms than unmasked hamsters.



DOI: 10.1056/NEJMp2026913 _Facial Masking for Covid-19 - Potential for “Variolation” as We Await a Vaccine_, Gandhi, M., Rutherford, G.W., NEJM


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Sep 13, 2020)

sojourner said:


> A question about stats on the Zoe app I've just started using.  The news stated that Sunday's new cases were 2988, but the app says 3610, which is considerably higher.  Anyone know why?  I know that King's are feeding this data to the govt, so am wondering why the big difference.


The app estimates total symptomatic cases, while the new cases total is only those who have tested positive (And includes asymptomatic cases,  which the app does not address). 

The tracking up and down of the app numbers have generally fitted pretty well with other estimates that include asymptomatic cases, but at about a third to half lower. So when zoe say 3,500 new cases per day, that probably means 5-6,000 new infections including asymptomatic ones. 

I think the daily update of estimated total symptomatic cases from Zoe is a good early indicator of where things are going. It's up near 40k now from a low of 18k. (At peak it estimates we were at 2 million.)


----------



## elbows (Sep 13, 2020)

Cheers for those 2hats, shame some probably wont learn from them.

The point about substantial bias in 'children less susceptible' studies could be seen coming from a million miles away for sure. Inconvenient facts that authorities spend a long time trying to deny are a feature of this pandemic, and this extends well beyond authorities and into the research communities, medical orthodoxy etc. That shit is always there but its far more obvious in a bad pandemic.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Sep 13, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I haven't used it for a while but didn't it say something like 'x number of  people with symptomatic covid in the UK' by which it meant anyone with symptoms? I didn't know it was only counting people who had had a test.


It isn't.


----------



## elbows (Sep 13, 2020)

I had previously read that recent lockdown measures in Israel got watered down to try to satisfy ultra-orthodox coalition partners, but I guess the situation there demands more measures and so things have fractured along those lines:









						Coronavirus: Israel to impose three-week national lockdown
					

The restrictions announced on Sunday will last at least three weeks, PM Benjamin Netanyahu says.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## 2hats (Sep 13, 2020)

Lab engineered proteins interfere with SARS-CoV-2 cell entry mechanisms.


> Institute for Protein Design researchers at the University of Washington School of Medicine used computer design to originate new proteins that bind tightly to SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein and obstruct it from infecting cells.
> 
> In the experiments, the lead antiviral candidate, named LCB1, rivaled the best-known SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies in its protective actions.
> 
> They appear to block SARS-CoV-2 infection at least as well as monoclonal antibodies, but are much easier to produce and far more stable, potentially eliminating the need for refrigeration.







__





						Designed antiviral proteins inhibit SARS-CoV-2 in the lab
					

Computer-designed small proteins have now been shown to protect lab-grown human cells from SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19. The findings are reported today, Sept. 9, in Science. Here is the paper. In the experiments, the lead antiviral candidate, named LCB1, rivaled the...




					newsroom.uw.edu
				



DOI: 10.1126/science.abd9909


----------



## MrSki (Sep 13, 2020)

Israel in second lockdown from Friday.


----------



## 2hats (Sep 13, 2020)

Viral genome sequencing has highlighted how initial efforts to test and trace in Europe and North America were working and clusters only established later than originally thought, (not unsurprisingly) underlining how swift and intensive testing, contact tracing, and isolation measures work and how key they are to containing outbreaks. 


> Contrary to widespread narratives, the first documented arrivals of infected individuals traveling from China to the U.S. and Europe did not snowball into continental outbreaks, the researchers found.
> 
> Instead, swift and decisive measures aimed at tracing and containing those initial incursions of the virus were successful and should serve as model responses directing future actions and policies by governments and public health agencies, the study's authors conclude.











						How Coronavirus Took Hold in North America and Europe
					

Early interventions were effective at stamping out infections, but subsequent travel allowed the virus to ignite major outbreaks in Europe and North America, a new study finds.




					news.arizona.edu
				



DOI: 10.1126/science.abc8169


----------



## Mation (Sep 14, 2020)

2hats said:


> Lab engineered proteins interfere with SARS-CoV-2 cell entry mechanisms.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"In silico" design


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 14, 2020)

Ugh


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 14, 2020)

Israel's going back into a full on lockdown


----------



## elbows (Sep 14, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Israel's going back into a full on lockdown



I'm not too confident about reporting things from their dashboard because I am reliant on google translate, but it looks to me like one of the panels at the bottom indicates some hospitals at over 100% capacity. Can you confirm?





__





						קורונה - לוח בקרה
					

דשבורד נתוני וירוס הקורונה בישראל מטעם משרד הבריאות הישראלי




					datadashboard.health.gov.il


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 14, 2020)

elbows said:


> I'm not too confident about reporting things from their dashboard because I am reliant on google translate, but it looks to me like one of the panels at the bottom indicates some hospitals at over 100% capacity. Can you confirm?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


My Hebrew is not really all that great I'm afraid to put it mildly. I'll try and find out more details later


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 14, 2020)

Yeah looks like it


----------



## cupid_stunt (Sep 14, 2020)

Certainly look like some hospitals are almost full.   



> Another minister, Yucal Steinitz, said: "It is nice that you are raising the red flag now, when hospitals are getting full, but you had to raise that red flag a month or two ago."
> ---
> A report by the Israel Coronavirus Information Centre, published on Sunday, said that the country's hospitals were edging closer to maximum capacity - though doctors at some of the nation's hospitals disputed this.











						Coronavirus: Israel becomes first country in the world to impose second national lockdown
					

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the decision in a news conference after infection and death rates soared.




					news.sky.com
				






> *LIVE UPDATES
> 
> 2:12 P.M. Overburdened, first Israeli hospital says will turn away coronavirus patients*
> 
> The director of Western Galilee Hospital in Nahariya, Prof. Masad Barhoum, announced that he had ordered it to stop accepting any more coronavirus patients because of overcrowding in the hospital’s coronavirus wards and intensive care units, as well as the high number of patients in serious condition and on ventilators.











						Coronavirus Israel: President apologizes for leadership failure as cases break record
					

***




					www.haaretz.com
				




Grim.


----------



## elbows (Sep 14, 2020)

Thanks for the info.

I think we will probably hear more about certain parts of France this week as well, since some areas dont have much capacity in the first place and the outbreaks are quite large in some regions now, and I think the likes of Marseille are supposed to be working out further restrictions today.

eg this from the end of last week:









						COVID beds fill up as virus pressure builds in Marseille
					

MARSEILLE, France (AP) — All five intensive care beds dedicated to COVID patients are in use at the Laveran Military Training Hospital in Marseille, and its doctors are bracing for more...




					apnews.com
				






> Doctors in Marseille — the country’s latest virus hotspot — started sounding the alarm this week. The 70 ICU beds dedicated to virus patients in France’s second-biggest city and the surrounding Bouches-du-Rhone region were all occupied by Tuesday. The number of ICU virus patients in the region has doubled in the past 10 days and now surpasses 100.


----------



## elbows (Sep 14, 2020)

The bad comedy never really went away during this pandemic so far, but I'm not sure I'm really ready for all it will have to offer during the deja vu viral resurgence phase or subsequent waves.



> At least 22 US citizens based at the hotel have become infected and the hotel itself, which hosted a conference last week on how to prevent the virus spreading in the US army, has been closed for two weeks.



From American accused of ignoring Covid-19 quarantine to go on Bavaria bar crawl


----------



## hash tag (Sep 14, 2020)

I am hearing that an American resident in Germany tested positive and was told to self isolate.....so they went on a pub crawl around Bavaria infecting lots of people


----------



## cupid_stunt (Sep 14, 2020)

hash tag said:


> I am hearing that an American resident in Germany tested positive and was told to self isolate.....so they went on a pub crawl around Bavaria infecting lots of people



In the post just above yours.


----------



## two sheds (Sep 14, 2020)

hash tag said:


> I am hearing that an American resident in Germany tested positive and was told to self isolate.....so they went on a pub crawl around Bavaria infecting lots of people



In the same post as Diana Rigg being dead


----------



## hash tag (Sep 14, 2020)

Ah well...


----------



## Cloo (Sep 14, 2020)

Having thought it was going ahead, my parents' music festival in Eastern Slovakia may be off - their area is still pretty clear, but cases rising fast in Bratislava, plus certain musicians might be unable to travel because of situations in their countries.


----------



## editor (Sep 15, 2020)

Fucking rich twats: 



> *Summer Jet-Setters Turned Sardinia Into a Virus Hot Spot*
> Silvio Berlusconi was there in August. So was his friend, the club owner Flavio Briatore. Now both are among hundreds of Covid-19 cases linked to the Italian island, a favorite of rich partygoers.
> 
> The allure of the turquoise waters, extravagant villas and exclusive dance clubs of the Emerald Coast of Sardinia proved stronger than ever in August, as Italian tourists hungry for virus-free air mingled with regulars of the international party circuit hopping across from places like the Spanish island of Ibiza and Mykonos in the Aegean Sea.
> ...





> Since March, there have been more than 12,500 cases in Lazio and more than 2,600 in Sardinia, according to official figures.
> 
> 
> Roberto Ragnedda, the mayor of the Sardinian town of Arzachena, where many of the clubs are, said “10 days of madness” in August had caused “enormous damage to our image and to economy.”
> ...





> But according to Mr. Ragnedda, the “most egregious” offender was Mr. Briatore, at whose club he once delivered drinks while working his way through law school.
> 
> Mr. Briatore declined a request for an interview through Patrizia Spinelli, a spokeswoman for his Billionaire Life brand. (“We didn’t just create a company, we built a lifestyle” is its motto.) She said the club was not responsible: “We are victims of the situation, too, and took all the precautions.”
> 
> ...





> In one, a train of women transport champagne bottles loaded with sparklers through thumping music and a sweaty crowd. Almost nobody is wearing a mask.
> In a social media post a few days before his coronavirus diagnosis, Mr. Briatore, 70, attacked a virologist for speaking badly about his club, saying that such scientists had “terrorized Italy.”
> 
> “Let us work,” Briatore said in another post on May 31. “The coronavirus provides insurance for this government, they are scaring everyone, and since everything has been going down since June, they start scaring people for September,” he added.
> ...











						Summer Jet-Setters Turned Sardinia Into a Virus Hot Spot (Published 2020)
					

Silvio Berlusconi was there in August. So was his friend, the club owner Flavio Briatore. Now both are among hundreds of Covid-19 cases linked to the Italian island, a favorite of rich partygoers.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## weepiper (Sep 15, 2020)




----------



## frogwoman (Sep 16, 2020)

11,193 new cases and 239 new deaths in Spain

 

I think some of these may have been from previous weeks but still


----------



## elbows (Sep 16, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> 11,193 new cases and 239 new deaths in Spain
> 
> 
> 
> I think some of these may have been from previous weeks but still



I cant give an accurate daily figure because of the lag but deaths announced centrally by date of death hit as high as 69 for the 12th September.

And the number of people in hospital has doubled since they started publishing more useful daily figure for that just under a month ago. Its close to 10,000 now.



New restrictions also loom, especially for the Madrid region.









						Doctors in hard-hit Madrid: 'It's like March in slow motion'
					

Authorities in Madrid say selective lockdowns will be introduced in urban areas where the coronavirus is spreading faster to avoid bottlenecks in health services




					abcnews.go.com
				






> “In a way, it’s like the situation in March but in slow motion," said Dr. Carlos Velayos, who works as an intensive care unit physician at the public hospital in suburban Fuenlabrada. The hospital is expanding its ICU capacity from 12 to 24 beds by the end of September, as all of them are currently filling up with coronavirus patients.
> 
> With 1,273 patients in ICUs, Spain has as many beds devoted to treat grave patients of COVID-19 as France, the United Kingdom, Germany and Italy together. And 359 of them are in the Madrid region, which for the past week has accounted for roughly one-third of a national average of 8,200 new infections per day.


----------



## elbows (Sep 17, 2020)

The politics of the pandemic is a big mess in Spain.

It sounds like the 'centre-right' regional government of Madrid, having previously complained about the national government imposing stuff on them in the first wave, now want to hide behind them, presumably because very tough decisions are required and they want to avoid being the ones to have to make them  









						Madrid asks central government for help amid chaotic handling of coronavirus crisis
					

Deputy premier calls on PM Pedro Sánchez to “actively get involved,” and the latter suggests a face-to-face meeting with the regional leader




					english.elpais.com
				






> On Thursday, Aguado insisted that “we are in time to control the situation, to control the curve, if only we are able to give ourselves some political respite. We need to stop assigning blame. It is necessary and urgent for the government of Spain to actively get involved in controlling the epidemic in Madrid, and I have said as much to premier Isabel Díaz Ayuso, whom I fully support," he continued. “It is absolutely impossible for the regional government to eliminate an epidemic of this nature all by itself.”
> 
> Thursday’s appeal for help represents a significant change in the Madrid government’s rhetoric of the past few months. Until now, regional officials had complained that the centrally declared state of alarm, which lasted from March to June and saw devolved powers temporarily centralized, had prevented them from handling the crisis in an effective way.



Also:









						Spain’s civil registries detect 10% excess mortality during second coronavirus wave
					

In the first two weeks of September, Madrid alone recorded 29% more deaths than the average for the same time period




					english.elpais.com
				






> With Spain already immersed in a second wave of the coronavirus, the country’s systems for detecting excess mortality rates have already identified a 10% rise in unexpected deaths over two periods: the month of August, and the second week of September.
> 
> The latest report from the Mortality Monitoring System, known as MoMo, was published on Wednesday, and shows that between July 27 and August 29 there were 3,466 more deaths in Spain than were expected, and that over the last week – September 8 to 13 – there were an extra 533 compared to the average.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Sep 17, 2020)

elbows said:


> It sounds like the 'centre-right' regional government of Madrid, having previously complained about the national government imposing stuff on them in the first wave, now want to hide behind them, presumably because very tough decisions are required and they want to avoid being the ones to have to make them



Not unlike what has been happening in France, with some regional authorities kicking-up a fuss about the national government imposing stuff on them, so the national government has backed off & is letting them get on with the crisis themselves.

France & Spain are starting to make our government's response look half decent.


----------



## elbows (Sep 17, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> France & Spain are starting to make our government's response look half decent.



With the exception of Germany, the large countries of Europe occupy a similar position in my mind with regards how bad their pandemics have been so far, mistakes made at various key stages, and vulnerabilities leading up to the pandemic. Spain for example may have gone into this pandemic with healthcare systems and care home setups that were in even worse shape than ours. And that sort of stuff is caused by long-term political failures and bad priorities likely stretching back decades, just like ours.

The reasons Germany fares better is a long term project for me, I havent had much time for it so far beyond the most obvious stuff. Which isnt just their large testing system and better contact tracing, its likely that things like hospital spare capacity and the resultant less crowding and better Covid-19 segregation options made a real difference too, plus a few other major factors that I havent gone looking for yet.

There is nothing wrong with looking at the various political disasters in some european countries that are hampering their response. But in some ways we should not let this distract from the big picture of this resurgence, which is likely to be that this is an inevitable story based on decisions that were mostly made by national governments for economic reasons about the pace and scale of summer relaxation of measures.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 17, 2020)

France COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

France Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 17, 2020)




----------



## William of Walworth (Sep 17, 2020)

To move away from Europe for now**, here are two depressing but fascinating India-centred articles   :

The first one is short :

Indian cases rise 1,290 deaths in a day



And this second one includes much more analysis, and also (importantly -- Hannah Ellis Petersen is _good_) human tragedy and direct conversation with people as well as experts :

'India hasn't the capacity' -- Rural health workers face spread of infextion from cities unarmed**
(**Headline is different in the old-fashioned print edition   than from the online headline of this link, but the content is the same)

I really should also check some online stuff from the English-language (and non-Modi-loving  ) Indian press, etc., on all this .....


----------



## Yossarian (Sep 18, 2020)

I thought this was an interesting perspective - the Western world has singled New Zealand out for praise in controlling the virus, while other success stories in Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean are either ignored or treated as puzzling mysteries.



> The real story is that places like Vietnam and Mongolia have completely kicked COVID-19’s ass. The real story is that places like Rwanda and Ghana have innovated and survived. There are countless stories like this — from Sri Lanka to Trinidad & Tobago, but you wouldn’t know because we’re not rich or white.



The Overwhelming Racism of COVID Coverage


----------



## two sheds (Sep 18, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I thought this was an interesting perspective - the Western world has singled New Zealand out for praise in controlling the virus, while other success stories in Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean are either ignored or treated as puzzling mysteries.
> 
> 
> 
> The Overwhelming Racism of COVID Coverage



Eye-opening article


----------



## Petcha (Sep 18, 2020)

What an absurd article.  New Zealand is a hugely multi cultural country. It’s not ‘white’


----------



## Petcha (Sep 18, 2020)

This bits particularly mental



> The white world, of course, stretches to New Zealand, and there they have found their great white hope. But that’s where the world ends. Europe, here be dragons, then New Zealand.



It’s like a gcse essay


----------



## elbows (Sep 18, 2020)

Aspects of that stuff are similar to what we saw in Jan->March. A complete failure of western governments to learn the lessons from Chinas lockdown, instead only adopting that mentality and thinking the unthinkable once Italy had to lockdown.


----------



## quimcunx (Sep 18, 2020)

Petcha said:


> What an absurd article.  New Zealand is a hugely multi cultural country. It’s not ‘white’



It is in the eyes of 'the west' which is presumably what matters in the context of that article*.  

*I havent read it.


----------



## Petcha (Sep 18, 2020)

quimcunx said:


> It is in the eyes of 'the west' which is presumably what matters in the context of that article*.
> 
> *I havent read it.



It specifically refers to ‘white’. Repeatedly. Not a helpful article.


----------



## elbows (Sep 18, 2020)

And of course there was Harries:



> The World Health Organization has sent a message to every country in the world during this pandemic: "Test, test, test."
> 
> But not every country felt the message was meant for them. In mid-March the coronavirus was spreading rapidly in many parts of the world, including the United Kingdom. Yet at a press conference, England's deputy chief medical officer, Dr. Jenny Harries, stated that the WHO guidelines did not apply to the UK's "extremely well-developed public health system.'" She explained that WHO's recommended approach for all countries were actually meant more for lower income countries.











						OPINION: The Ghosts Of Colonialism Are Haunting The World's Response To The Pandemic
					

The era of colonial powers ended in the 20th century. But the legacy lingers on and can be seen in the way the West has reacted to the coronavirus crisis. Although there are some hopeful signs, too.




					news.wbfo.org


----------



## two sheds (Sep 18, 2020)

Petcha said:


> What an absurd article.  New Zealand is a hugely multi cultural country. It’s not ‘white’



It's talking about how it's viewed in the west though. Populations of Australia and NZ are generally thought of in the west as being white.


----------



## belboid (Sep 18, 2020)

Yeah, NZ is 70% ‘european’ but it’s government if essentially 100% euro, so it’s not entirely unreasonable to say it’s a ‘white’ country in terms of who has been in charge of fighting Covid.


----------



## Orang Utan (Sep 18, 2020)

Petcha said:


> This bits particularly mental
> 
> 
> 
> It’s like a gcse essay


it's set to be the millionnaires' retreat when everything goes to shit in 'the West'. Loads of wealthy people have bought property there recently. NZ is mostly like a 50s Hampshire village, culturally.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Sep 18, 2020)

Orang Utan said:


> it's set to be the millionnaires' retreat when everything goes to shit in 'the West'. Loads of wealthy people have bought property there recently. NZ is mostly like a 50s Hampshire village, culturally.


all the kiwis I have met would have been burnt at the stake in 50s Hampshire, however they might not be representative of the country.


----------



## two sheds (Sep 19, 2020)

Petcha said:


> What an absurd article.  New Zealand is a hugely multi cultural country. It’s not ‘white’



Didn't you feel this said something valuable? ...



> Thailand worked hard and fought back COVID-19 with public health. Instead of seeing that, however, the NYTimes asked if it was something in their blood. We’re talking about magic oriental blood, in 2020. I’m serious:
> 
> 
> > Is there a genetic component in which the immune systems of Thais and others in the Mekong River region are more resistant to the coronavirus? Or is it some alchemy of all these factors that has insulated this country of 70 million people? (NYT)
> ...



there was more along those lines ... I could forgive the 'here be dragons' type stuff because I thought the writer was making some excellent points, that I'd not seen before.


----------



## Mation (Sep 19, 2020)

Petcha said:


> It specifically refers to ‘white’. Repeatedly. Not a helpful article.


What's not helpful about it?


----------



## Artaxerxes (Sep 19, 2020)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> all the kiwis I have met would have been burnt at the stake in 50s Hampshire, however they might not be representative of the country.



Kiwis are really sound mostly but the country is still very low population and so the rich wankers can buy it up and pretend it's culturally perfect and white.


----------



## Petcha (Sep 19, 2020)

belboid said:


> Yeah, NZ is 70% ‘european’ but it’s government if essentially 100% euro, so it’s not entirely unreasonable to say it’s a ‘white’ country in terms of who has been in charge of fighting Covid.



That's also untrue - their parliament is 70% 'European' which mirrors exactly the makeup of the country itself.

They also have MMP down there too, meaning parties like the Maori party actually have a say in major decisions.





__





						The 52nd New Zealand Parliament Demographics | Kiwiblog
					

The 120 MPs of the 52nd New Zealand Parliament are listed above. The demographic analysis follows: Gender 74 (-8) Males, 62% (-6%) 46 (+7) Females, 38% (+6%) A big increase in the number of female MPs, mainly due to Labour. Ethnicity 79 (-4) European, 66% (-3%) 27 (+1) Maori, 23% (+2%) 7 (nc)...




					www.kiwiblog.co.nz


----------



## belboid (Sep 19, 2020)

Petcha said:


> That's also untrue - their parliament is 70% 'European' which mirrors exactly the makeup of the country itself.
> 
> They also have MMP down there too, meaning parties like the Maori party actually have a say in major decisions.
> 
> ...


I said government, not parliament.  Johnson’s cabinet has more non-white people in it than St Jacinda.   Winston bloody Peters is the most significant Maori politician.   It’s better than Australia, but still highly pakeha dominated.


----------



## Yossarian (Sep 20, 2020)

New Zealand's not "white" any more than the US or the UK is - but I think the broader point about a lot of attention being paid to New Zealand's impressive handling of the pandemic while the experience of many other countries who have handled the pandemic well is being largely ignored still stands, whether you describe New Zealand as "white," "Western," or "a wealthy country with a majority white population that white people around the world pay a lot more attention to than Rwanda or Mongolia."


----------



## Yossarian (Sep 20, 2020)

That opinion piece was polemical and painted things in broad strokes but it was still kind of an eye-opener for me - I think the most important point it made was that if Western countries want to learn how to defeat a disease, countries that were already dealing with massive public health challenges have a lot to teach them.



> Here’s the thing: we don’t actually have a great public health system. That’s why our administrators were so afraid of covid-19. We don’t have many respirators, for example. We were really afraid that if we got community transmission even once, it would become a disaster for us. What was in everyone’s head was to be prepared before the spread.












						How Mongolia has kept the coronavirus at bay
					

Davaadorj Rendoo, an epidemiologist at the National Center for Public Health in Ulaanbaatar, explains Mongolia's national strategy.




					www.technologyreview.com


----------



## elbows (Sep 22, 2020)

Madrid 









						Madrid opera halted by audience protest over lack of social distancing
					

Spectators at Teatro Real say they were crammed into seats without space between them




					www.theguardian.com
				






> A performance of Verdi’s A Masked Ball was abandoned in Madrid on Sunday night after audience members protested over the lack of social distancing measures – especially for those in cheaper seats.
> 
> One member of the audience at the Teatro Real opera house said there were rows of more than a dozen people without any gaps between them.



Meanwhile Madrids hospital graphs have now reached the following levels (national daily reports version of data):


And the national picture of hospital number by region in a single graph.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 22, 2020)

Why is there such a big drop in the last graph, I guess that's the weekend effect?


----------



## elbows (Sep 22, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Why is there such a big drop in the last graph, I guess that's the weekend effect?



Yeah, and you can see the same drop in the first day of every weeks data. And their data isnt very good anyway, and they dont even report it for dates that fall on weekends.

Hopsital numbers are often based on testing, so testing delays can also contribute to the data being less than an accurate and timely picture. Same goes with UK hospital admission figures too, its based on patients testing positive so the number of admissions we see is not the actual number of people who were actually admitted on that day, its based on reporting of people in hospital testing positive.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 22, 2020)

Seems to be going up hugely in Madrid. Didn't they have a bad outbreak back in March?


----------



## elbows (Sep 22, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Seems to be going up hugely in Madrid. Didn't they have a bad outbreak back in March?



Yes it was one of the worst outbreaks seen anywhere, and was responsible for a hefty chunk of Spains deaths. 

The resurgence there was bad news for those who were hoping that those places hit very badly the first time must have had it so bad that they will be spared a bad repeat, due to higher immunity levels etc. What has happened in Madrid this summer has pissed on their 'lockdown 2 isnt necessary' chips big time.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 22, 2020)

elbows said:


> Yes it was one of the worst outbreaks seen anywhere, and was responsible for a hefty chunk of Spains deaths.
> 
> The resurgence there was bad news for those who were hoping that those places hit very badly the first time must have had it so bad that they will be spared a bad repeat, due to higher immunity levels etc. What has happened in Madrid this summer has pissed on their 'lockdown 2 isnt necessary' chips big time.



I was kinda hoping there might be some sort of immunity in the places with bad outbreaks too.


----------



## elbows (Sep 22, 2020)

I hoped for such outcomes too, but I did not think it appropriate to think it terribly likely, or to base policy on such hopes.

It wasnt a completely impossible idea, due mostly to large gaps in our understanding of immunity, and there is still plenty of time in this pandemic for us to discover where the ceilings really are. There might be some twists, there might not, so my script is not completely rigid. But it will certainly require clear and consistent evidence before I become a true believer in any of the more exotic possibilities.


----------



## zahir (Sep 22, 2020)

Lockdown being considered in Athens.









						“Lockdown in Attica” if restrictions don’t flatten the curve, signal Greek officials - Keep Talking Greece
					

Greek officials reiterated in the past hours the possibility of a lockdown should the latest measure




					www.keeptalkinggreece.com


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 23, 2020)

Israel had 6,667 cases yesterday in a country of about 6 million


----------



## Teaboy (Sep 23, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Israel had 6,667 cases yesterday in a country of about 6 million



I guess it depends on how much testing they are doing and the direction of travel but 0.11% of the population doesn't sound massive in of itself.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 23, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I guess it depends on how much testing they are doing and the direction of travel but 0.11% of the population doesn't sound massive in of itself.



It's been out of control for weeks


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 23, 2020)

Israel COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Israel Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




200k cases out of 9 million


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 23, 2020)

*9,762 new cases* and *31 new deaths* in *Israel* [source]
Fuck! Israel already has 200k cases from a population of 9 million


----------



## spring-peeper (Sep 23, 2020)

Here in Ontario, the infection rate is climbing.  It makes sense because of the schools opening.

Testing has become a nightmare, with parents starting to line up at 3 am and still taking hours before they get to the beginning of the queue.
In the rural areas, you can only be seen if you have an appointment and you can only arrive 15 minutes before your appointment.
This in not the case in the urban areas - ya gotta line up.

Last week, my niece, rural, had to have here kids tested because one of them coughed in class and had a fever.
Had them tested on Friday, Monday she was told the tests were inconclusive and she had to redo the tests.
Did they give her an appointment time?  NO!!!
45 minutes on hold, she got the appointment for Thursday.

In response to these horror stories, the provincial government is now allowing the pharmacies to test.









						Full list of Ontario pharmacies now offering COVID-19 tests
					

Up to 60 pharmacies across Ontario will be offering COVID-19 testing as of Friday. Here is a full list:



					toronto.ctvnews.ca
				




None are within an hours drive, which is good.

I don't want to go into the store to get my meds, and have to worry if the person ahead of me wants testing.


----------



## MrSki (Sep 23, 2020)

I remember this been talked about here back in April. Has anything happened?


----------



## weltweit (Sep 23, 2020)

I don't mean to dump a text on this thread from FB but this is a quote from Dr. Fauci [EDITED TO ADD, THIS TEXT WAS ATTRIBUTED TO DR FAUCI BUT IS IN FACT NOT FROM HIM, PLEASE SEE FOLLOWING POST] which is doing the rounds and I haven't yet seen in the thread. Apologies if it has already been posted or has been linked to.

Quote From Dr. Fauci: (I love his closing line 
	

	
	
		
		

		
			





)
“Chickenpox is a virus. Lots of people have had it, and probably don't think about it much once the initial illness has passed. But it stays in your body and lives there forever, and maybe when you're older, you have debilitatingly painful outbreaks of shingles. You don't just get over this virus in a few weeks, never to have another health effect. We know this because it's been around for years, and has been studied medically for years.
Herpes is also a virus. And once someone has it, it stays in your body and lives there forever, and anytime they get a little run down or stressed-out they're going to have an outbreak. Maybe every time you have a big event coming up (school pictures, job interview, big date) you're going to get a cold sore. For the rest of your life. You don't just get over it in a few weeks. We know this because it's been around for years, and been studied medically for years.
HIV is a virus. It attacks the immune system and makes the carrier far more vulnerable to other illnesses. It has a list of symptoms and negative health impacts that goes on and on. It was decades before viable treatments were developed that allowed people to live with a reasonable quality of life. Once you have it, it lives in your body forever and there is no cure. Over time, that takes a toll on the body, putting people living with HIV at greater risk for health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, kidney disease, diabetes, bone disease, liver disease, cognitive disorders, and some types of cancer. We know this because it has been around for years, and had been studied medically for years.
Now with COVID-19, we have a novel virus that spreads rapidly and easily. The full spectrum of symptoms and health effects is only just beginning to be cataloged, much less understood.
So far the symptoms may include:
Fever
Fatigue
Coughing
Pneumonia
Chills/Trembling
Acute respiratory distress
Lung damage (potentially permanent)
Loss of taste (a neurological symptom)
Sore throat
Headaches
Difficulty breathing
Mental confusion
Diarrhea
Nausea or vomiting
Loss of appetite
Strokes have also been reported in some people who have COVID-19 (even in the relatively young)
Swollen eyes
Blood clots
Seizures
Liver damage
Kidney damage
Rash
COVID toes (weird, right?)
People testing positive for COVID-19 have been documented to be sick even after 60 days. Many people are sick for weeks, get better, and then experience a rapid and sudden flare up and get sick all over again. A man in Seattle was hospitalized for 62 days, and while well enough to be released, still has a long road of recovery ahead of him. Not to mention a $1.1 million medical bill.
Then there is MIS-C. Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children is a condition where different body parts can become inflamed, including the heart, lungs, kidneys, brain, skin, eyes, or gastrointestinal organs. Children with MIS-C may have a fever and various symptoms, including abdominal pain, vomiting, diarrhea, neck pain, rash, bloodshot eyes, or feeling extra tired. While rare, it has caused deaths.
This disease has not been around for years. It has basically been 6 months. No one knows yet the long-term health effects, or how it may present itself years down the road for people who have been exposed. We literally _do not know_ what we do not know.
For those in our society who suggest that people being cautious are cowards, for people who refuse to take even the simplest of precautions to protect themselves and those around them, I want to ask, without hyperbole and in all sincerity:
How dare you?
How dare you risk the lives of others so cavalierly. How dare you decide for others that they should welcome exposure as "getting it over with", when literally no one knows who will be the lucky "mild symptoms" case, and who may fall ill and die. Because while we know that some people are more susceptible to suffering a more serious case, we also know that 20 and 30-year-olds have died, marathon runners and fitness nuts have died, children and infants have died.
How dare you behave as though you know more than medical experts, when those same experts acknowledge that there is so much we don't yet know, but with what we DO know, are smart enough to be scared of how easily this is spread, and recommend baseline precautions such as:
Frequent hand-washing
Physical distancing
Reduced social/public contact or interaction
Mask wearing
Covering your cough or sneeze
Avoiding touching your face
Sanitizing frequently touched surfaces
The more things we can all do to mitigate our risk of exposure, the better off we all are, in my opinion. Not only does it flatten the curve and allow health care providers to maintain levels of service that aren't immediately and catastrophically overwhelmed; it also reduces unnecessary suffering and deaths, and buys time for the scientific community to study the virus in order to come to a more full understanding of the breadth of its impacts in both the short and long term.
I reject the notion that it's "just a virus" and we'll all get it eventually. What a careless, lazy, heartless stance.”
Copy and paste to share.


----------



## fishfinger (Sep 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> I don't mean to dump a text on this thread from FB but this is a quote from Dr. Fauci which is doing the rounds and I haven't yet seen in the thread. Apologies if it has already been posted or has been linked to.
> 
> Quote From Dr. Fauci: (I love his closing line
> 
> ...


Not from Fauci:



> We found the contents of the viral post to be largely true. For instance, chickenpox is an *infection* caused by the *varicella-zoster virus,* just like the COVID-19 disease is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. However, Fauci was not the source of, or at all connected to, the viral message. Rather, we determined Facebook user Amy Wright, of Asheville, North Carolina, was the post’s original author.



Did Fauci Compare Research About COVID-19 to That of Chickenpox?


----------



## two sheds (Sep 23, 2020)

Shame, still good stuff though.


----------



## weltweit (Sep 23, 2020)

Oh fishfinger - perhaps that might be the last time I copy something from FB then  shame, it does read like a useful diatribe.


----------



## fishfinger (Sep 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Oh fishfinger - perhaps that might be the last time I copy something from FB then  shame, it does read like a useful diatribe.


Just check it first. It's a good diatribe but has potential to do more harm than good when misattributed.


----------



## zahir (Sep 23, 2020)

This looks alarming (read the thread) - aiming for herd immunity by allowing children to get infected.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Sep 23, 2020)

zahir said:


> This looks alarming (read the thread) - aiming for herd immunity by allowing children to get infected.




I'm not certain the UK's approach is so wildly different tbh. Although incompetence rather than ideology is still the more likely explanation.


----------



## Thora (Sep 23, 2020)

I agree, basically the same as we have here.  Although there is a token effort to send children with some symptoms home, the government are also encouraging children with "colds" to attend school.


----------



## elbows (Sep 23, 2020)

Meanwhile they are finally shutting bars and restaurants in Marseille, well from Saturday onwards.









						Covid-19: France to shut bars and restaurants in hard-hit Marseille
					

France will order bars and restaurants shut in Marseille and restrict their opening hours in other cities including Paris as part of efforts to stem a continuing rise in the daily number of infection…




					www.france24.com


----------



## Graymalkin (Sep 24, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> Here in Ontario, the infection rate is climbing.  It makes sense because of the schools opening.
> 
> Testing has become a nightmare, with parents starting to line up at 3 am and still taking hours before they get to the beginning of the queue.
> In the rural areas, you can only be seen if you have an appointment and you can only arrive 15 minutes before your appointment.
> ...


A friend of mine in Ottawa is facing the same problem with their daughter.  Its another massive bungle and it bet the province will be paying for it in the coming weeks.  I'm sure you've seen the lineup in kingston.  5-7 hours for a city of 120k.


----------



## spring-peeper (Sep 24, 2020)

Graymalkin said:


> A friend of mine in Ottawa is facing the same problem with their daughter.  Its another massive bungle and it bet the province will be paying for it in the coming weeks.  I'm sure you've seen the lineup in kingston.  5-7 hours for a city of 120k.




Wow!!! @ Kingston.  a friend works at the college.  I should reach out to her.

I put most of the blame of the testing hassles squarely on the premiere, Doug Ford.
He should have seen this coming!!!

A couple of days ago, I saw an article from BC.  They had a test that the students could gargle, and the sample could be tested within a short time.
This could be a gamechanger for the schools. but I have no idea of the cost.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 24, 2020)

Israel breaks daily coronavirus infections record with 9,200 new cases
					

***




					www.haaretz.com
				




Not listened to it yet but there is a podcast linked here about covid unravelling Bibi's leadership. 

Israel's outbreak is rapidly spreading out of control, 11k new cases were recorded yesterday


----------



## editor (Sep 24, 2020)

This is interesting 









						'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid
					

Researchers running Helsinki pilot scheme say dogs can identify virus in seconds




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## two sheds (Sep 24, 2020)

Do they sneeze on a positive?


----------



## Supine (Sep 24, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Do they sneeze on a positive?



At least they're not snitching on people with a bit of weed in their pocket.


----------



## emanymton (Sep 24, 2020)

editor said:


> This is interesting
> 
> 
> 
> ...






> After collecting their luggage, arriving international passengers are asked to dab their skin with a wipe. In a separate booth, the beaker containing the wipe is then placed next to others containing different control scents – and the dog starts sniffing.


So you don't even get to meet the dog?


----------



## weltweit (Sep 24, 2020)

Pretty amazing if the dogs have a good hit rate. 

And if they do I wonder if a sensor can simulate that .. assuming we don't have enough dogs to go round?


----------



## kabbes (Sep 25, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Pretty amazing if the dogs have a good hit rate.
> 
> And if they do I wonder if a sensor can simulate that .. assuming we don't have enough dogs to go round?


Probably not.  There are many things dogs can sniff out where we have no clue what it is they’re sniffing.  The tech of a dog’s nose is light years ahead of anything we can replicate.


----------



## elbows (Sep 25, 2020)

I havent had time to read this yet but it sounds interesting:



> To facilitate cross-country learning, this Health Policy paper uses an adapted framework to examine the approaches taken by nine high-income countries and regions that have started to ease COVID-19 restrictions: five in the Asia Pacific region (ie, Hong Kong [Special Administrative Region], Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea) and four in Europe (ie, Germany, Norway, Spain, and the UK). This comparative analysis presents important lessons to be learnt from the experiences of these countries and regions. Although the future of the virus is unknown at present, countries should continue to share their experiences, shield populations who are at risk, and suppress transmission to save lives.





			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32007-9/fulltext


----------



## elbows (Sep 25, 2020)

I'm only skimming it at the moment but there is this:



> With few exceptions, such as Germany, New Zealand, Norway, Scotland, and South Korea, political leaders have struggled to secure public trust and thus support for continued lifestyle changes. More generally, countries with female leaders have done better at securing public confidence and adherence to new measures than have countries with male leaders.
> 17 In England, controversy surrounding a trip made during lockdown by a close adviser to the prime minister has substantially undermined public confidence in the government and support for the measures that it was taking.


----------



## elbows (Sep 25, 2020)

And: 



> Germany's experience shows the benefits of investing in the health system for the future. Before the COVID-19 outbreak, the country already had 34 critical care beds per 100 000 inhabitants, compared with 9·7 in Spain and 5·2 in Japan (appendix p 18).
> Thus, Germany's intensive care units were well under capacity even during the peak of the outbreak, unlike many other European counterparts that had to adapt other wards and spaces within hospitals to accommodate critically ill patients with COVID-19. With the exception of Germany, all countries also adopted triage systems (although some were unofficial) in which only patients with severe disease would be treated at designated hospitals, whereas patients with mild disease would be monitored at makeshift community facilities or at home.


----------



## elbows (Sep 25, 2020)

Madrid still a fiasco.

 2h ago 12:02 



> On Friday, the regional government rejected the central government’s calls for a city-wide return to lockdown, instead announcing that another eight areas in the region would be put into the partial lockdown already in force across 37 zones. When the order comes into effect next week, more than a million people in the region will only be allowed to enter and exit their home zones on work, educational, legal or medical grounds.





> But, in a parallel press conference, Spain’s health minister urged more drastic action, saying that cities with more than 500 cases per 100,000 people should go into lockdown. As of Thursday evening, the Madrid region had recorded 746.15 cases per 100,000 people over the preceding fortnight.


----------



## two sheds (Sep 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> I havent had time to read this yet but it sounds interesting:
> 
> 
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32007-9/fulltext



It would also be productive to examine non-high-income countries given the recent article saying that some quite poor countries have greatly outperformed western ones. I suppose the lessons would be harder to apply though.


----------



## elbows (Sep 25, 2020)

Yes there are so many differences that it would be hard to do properly, especially because of demographic differences (population age pyramids may be vastly different), but also because the nature of assumptions about what the concrete data actually manages to capture in different places tends to vary, eg different degree of testing capacity, mortality statistics collection etc.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Sep 25, 2020)

We've still only had 6 deaths in qld and we're out the other side of winter now. Only 5 active cases. Lots of testing, track and trace happening and no new cases for 5 days. I'm feeling very, very grateful and lucky.


----------



## AnandLeo (Sep 25, 2020)

China rejects Trump accusations on COVID-19


> China on Tuesday rejected US President Donald Trump’s accusations on the UN stage that it had “unleashed” coronavirus on the world.
> 
> In his own address to the UN General Assembly, Chinese President Xi Jinping told urged UN member-states to avoid “politicization” of the virus, saying: “We humans are battling COVID-19. People of different countries have come together, demonstrating courage, resolve and compassion. The virus will be defeated. Humanity will win this battle.”
> 
> ...



It is not a baseless accusation. China should be held to account for these pandemics emanating from China.


----------



## elbows (Sep 25, 2020)

Not by cunts who would put it in such a crude way, no.


----------



## elbows (Sep 25, 2020)

Or to put it another way, there is a very long list of people, institutions, professions, industries, governments, priorities and human ways of life and behaviours that should be held to account by this pandemic.

Various things relating to China are on the list. And disease surveillance & response is on the list. Openness and the timely flow of information is on the list. Hospital funding, capacity and staffing is on the list. Human food/animal industries are on the list. Lab security and the risks of accidents when experimenting with novel viruses is on the list.


----------



## elbows (Sep 25, 2020)

And dog-whistle cunts who are more interesting in deflecting blame and protecting their business interests and those of their backers than they are in the health of their nation are on the fucking list.


----------



## elbows (Sep 25, 2020)

And regimes that are only too happy to count the cost of saving face in human lives lost are on the bloody list. Theres more than a few of those around.


----------



## Supine (Sep 25, 2020)

You should be careful blaming China for all of these outbreaks. The WHO released their flu strain announcement for the 2021 southern season today. As seen they ain't from China...


----------



## scifisam (Sep 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> Which stats show that?
> 
> The UK blood-donor ones dont, they are pretty much the opposite of what you suggest:
> 
> ...



I would have thought the results for over 70s would be less reliable, because over 70s are generally banned from giving blood. All blood testing groups are slightly different to the general population because a lot of people aren't eligible to give blood, but for over 70s that's even truer.


----------



## elbows (Sep 26, 2020)

scifisam said:


> I would have thought the results for over 70s would be less reliable, because over 70s are generally banned from giving blood. All blood testing groups are slightly different to the general population because a lot of people aren't eligible to give blood, but for over 70s that's even truer.



They couldnt measure that group during lockdown but in more recent times that surveillance document says this:



> Population weighted antibody prevalence (unadjusted) estimates in donors aged 70-84 years are included in the most recent data (weeks 31-35) as this age group, who were advised to shield during lockdown, have been able to return to donor clinics since week 26 (Figure 41)


----------



## scifisam (Sep 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> They couldnt measure that group during lockdown but in more recent times that surveillance document says this:



Yes, but even in non-Covid times over 70s are generally banned from donating. Only those who have given a full blood donation in the last two years are eligible. Also the general health exceptions are much more common in that age group. Almost all of them are going to be towards the bottom of that age range, for a start.


----------



## elbows (Sep 26, 2020)

They have error bars showing the confidence interval, and the number of samples involved. This provides some sense of what they think in terms of reliability of different results, ie an attempt to quantify the sort of thing you are talking about.

Well, they used to have the numbers involved in that earlier report, but the format of the age-based antibody reporting graph has changed, this is the latest one (still has error bars but they can be hard to see clearly):



from https://assets.publishing.service.g...COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_39_FINAL.pdf

The error bars are longer for the oldest age group but not by enough to erase my original point.


----------



## scifisam (Sep 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> They have error bars showing the confidence interval, and the number of samples involved. This provides some sense of what they think in terms of reliability of different results, ie an attempt to quantify the sort of thing you are talking about.
> 
> Well, they used to have the numbers involved in that earlier report, but the format of the age-based antibody reporting graph has changed, this is the latest one (still has error bars but they can be hard to see clearly):
> 
> ...



I'm sure - but honestly it really will almost all be the early 70s. It looks like a pretty rigourous study but they can't change the initial self-selecting nature of the cohort.


----------



## elbows (Sep 26, 2020)

Indeed it has limits, like all studies. Returning to the original context of why this even came up, I never did get an answer to my question, which is a shame as I wanted to look at the data behind the claim. I think I may have also misread the claim back when I was responding to it, as the evidence I offered only deals with what proportion of different age groups in the population have already been exposed to infection, and doesnt say anything about levels of asymptomatic cases by age.

I certainly think I have heard anecdotal evidence about the number of older people, such as care home residents, who havent displayed the most obvious covid-19 symptoms but have had a positive test. But I think whatever it was I read about this was based on specific carehome outbreaks and a lot of the data was from testing for current infection, rather than antibodies. 

I am envious of some countries that have done mass antibody testing, the data they end up with is interesting, and some of what it shows might provide clues that apply everywhere. But in some other respects such studies are of limited use for the UK because the nature of which parts of populations that got infected may vary wildly so far between UK locations and, for example, New York. But then their studies have their own limitations too.


----------



## elbows (Sep 26, 2020)

The Madrid situation got more press I see:









						Coronavirus: Madrid at serious risk without tougher rules, minister warns
					

Spain's health minister urges more restrictions in Madrid, stoking a political row as cases spike.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## scifisam (Sep 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> Indeed it has limits, like all studies. Returning to the original context of why this even came up, I never did get an answer to my question, which is a shame as I wanted to look at the data behind the claim. I think I may have also misread the claim back when I was responding to it, as *the evidence I offered only deals with what proportion of different age groups in the population have already been exposed to infection,* and doesnt say anything about levels of asymptomatic cases by age.
> 
> I certainly think I have heard anecdotal evidence about the number of older people, such as care home residents, who havent displayed the most obvious covid-19 symptoms but have had a positive test. But I think whatever it was I read about this was based on specific carehome outbreaks and a lot of the data was from testing for current infection, rather than antibodies.
> 
> I am envious of some countries that have done mass antibody testing, the data they end up with is interesting, and some of what it shows might provide clues that apply everywhere. But in some other respects such studies are of limited use for the UK because the nature of which parts of populations that got infected may vary wildly so far between UK locations and, for example, New York. But then their studies have their own limitations too.



Ah, re the bit I bolded - that makes the age differences easily understandable, then. Even healthy over-70s are less likely to be going to work, school, uni, etc, the places where they might be exposed to the virus, plus obviously during lockdown too.

It would be interesting to see a cite for the original claim. I guess it could theoretically be true - less active immune systems are more likely to be asymptomatic.

Being on low-dose chemo drugs for years has meant that I basically never get a cold. I will presumably have cold viruses in my system sometimes (especially since I was actually living with three people who were going into big disease-spreading settings) but my body never tried to fight them, so I didn't get any symptoms. I've always wondered if that means there's some underlying damage being done, but never been able to find an answer to that.

Care home residents aren't going to be in the same cohort as over-70s who can give blood, of course.


----------



## elbows (Sep 26, 2020)

scifisam said:


> Ah, re the bit I bolded - that makes the age differences easily understandable, then. Even healthy over-70s are less likely to be going to work, school, uni, etc, the places where they might be exposed to the virus, plus obviously during lockdown too.



Yeah theres quite a lot of data that ends up telling us things we already thought we knew about human behaviour rather than about the virus.



> It would be interesting to see a cite for the original claim. I guess it could theoretically be true - less active immune systems are more likely to be asymptomatic.



I suppose we'd also have to allow for the possibility that more older people also have trouble noticing and communicating certain symptoms that were actually still there and that they would have recognised and talked about when they were younger.



> Being on low-dose chemo drugs for years has meant that I basically never get a cold. I will presumably have cold viruses in my system sometimes (especially since I was actually living with three people who were going into big disease-spreading settings) but my body never tried to fight them, so I didn't get any symptoms. I've always wondered if that means there's some underlying damage being done, but never been able to find an answer to that.



Annoying isnt it? Whenever I've tried to research health stuff, virus stuff, pandemic stuff etc in the past, one of the main conclusions I reach is how little we know. The number of obvious questions it can be hard to even find people asking, let alone answering, can be a bit depressing.

I suppose if I were forced to make a quick guess about what you describe, I'd suggest your body is still fighting the colds off but on a different front, some parts of the immune system that dont generate the vlassic cold symptoms. Its either that or the virus within you is self-limited by some other means, or some other balance is changed by the drugs, or the immune system is moderated by the drug but not to the point that it cant fight the virus. Maybe the virus just takes a bit longer to clear from your system, I suppose thats one of the things to look at in a study, they could look at whether you shed more virus than average or for longer periods of time than average.


----------



## scifisam (Sep 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> Yeah theres quite a lot of data that ends up telling us things we already thought we knew about human behaviour rather than about the virus.
> 
> 
> 
> I suppose we'd also have to allow for the possibility that more older people also have trouble noticing and communicating certain symptoms that were actually still there and that they would have recognised and talked about when they were younger.



Very true. I don't use the Zoe app because my regular symptoms overlap with covid so much that it would be pointless.



> Annoying isnt it? Whenever I've tried to research health stuff, virus stuff, pandemic stuff etc in the past, one of the main conclusions I reach is how little we know. The number of obvious questions it can be hard to even find people asking, let alone answering, can be a bit depressing.
> 
> I suppose if I were forced to make a quick guess about what you describe, I'd suggest your body is still fighting the colds off but on a different front, some parts of the immune system that dont generate the vlassic cold symptoms. Its either that or the virus within you is self-limited by some other means, or some other balance is changed by the drugs, or the immune system is moderated by the drug but not to the point that it cant fight the virus. Maybe the virus just takes a bit longer to clear from your system, I suppose thats one of the things to look at in a study, they could look at whether you shed more virus than average or for longer periods of time than average.



It's extra interesting because having a depressed immune system is supposed to be riskier, but presumably that only applies to much higher doses of chemo?


----------



## elbows (Sep 26, 2020)

scifisam said:


> It's extra interesting because having a depressed immune system is supposed to be riskier, but presumably that only applies to much higher doses of chemo?



If I tried to say more I would be guilty of not knowing what I was talking about at all. Everything fascinates me but I dont think I have the headspace to explore most other health topics during this pandemic. And then when I do I tend to want to know specific drugs names so I can zoom in on specifics and check whether they have the first clue how the drug actually works in detail.


----------



## Supine (Sep 26, 2020)

Outdoor dining in NY 










						De Blasio: NYC Outdoor Dining Will Become "Permanent And Year-Round"
					

“I want us to go for the gold here, and take this model and make it a part of the life of New York City for years and generations to come."



					gothamist.com


----------



## gosub (Sep 27, 2020)




----------



## cupid_stunt (Sep 27, 2020)

Things are getting grim in France.  



> France will face a months-long coronavirus epidemic that will overwhelm its health system if something does not change, one of the country's top medical figures warned Sunday.
> 
> 
> "The second wave is arriving faster than we thought," Patrick Bouet, head of the National Council of the Order of Doctors, told the weekly Journal du Dimanche.
> Fresh restrictions to slow the spread of the disease in the country's worst-hit areas, including the Mediterranean city of Marseille and the Paris region, have run into local resistance.


The national & local governments seem to be out of step, slowing down getting restrictions in place, as new cases & hospital admissions are shooting up, and the average daily death total has doubled in the last week.


> France's health service on Saturday recorded 14,412 new cases over the previous 24 hours -- slightly lower than the record 16,000 registered on both Thursday and Friday.
> 
> *But over the last seven days, 4,102 people have been hospitalised, 763 of whom are being treated in intensive care.*



Edit for correct link -









						France’s coronavirus second wave ‘arriving faster than we thought’
					

France will face a months-long coronavirus epidemic that will overwhelm its health system if something does not change, one of the country's top medical figures warned Sunday.




					www.france24.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Sep 27, 2020)

Spain has the same problem with regional governments out of step with the national one, with the biggest problem being Madrid, which has reported almost 750 new cases per 100k, over the last 2 weeks, by far the highest in Europe.



> As of Friday, the Madrid region had the highest incidence rate of Covid-19 in Spain, with a cumulative 746.2 new cases per 100,000 people over the past 14 days, according to the El Pais newspaper. Spain overall has a rate of about 320, according to the European CDC.
> 
> With the situation worsening, the Spanish government and regional authorities in Madrid disagree on what action is required.
> 
> Madrid's regional government has chosen not to put the entire city and the surrounding areas under lockdown, but on Friday said it would extend restrictions on movement to another eight districts, affecting about a million people. Restrictions have now been imposed on 45 areas in some of Madrid's poorer districts, leaving residents there feeling abandoned, stigmatised and worried about the loss of income, Reuters news agency reports.





> However, the Spanish government has argued that these restrictions are not sufficient, recommending an end to all unnecessary movement across the city, among other measures.
> 
> Mr Illa called on regional officials to put political considerations aside and act on the science.
> 
> "I want to repeat the call for the measures [in Madrid] to be reviewed, to listen to the science. To leave politics in the background. To put the health of citizens first," Mr Illa said.











						Coronavirus: Madrid at serious risk without tougher rules, minister warns
					

Spain's health minister urges more restrictions in Madrid, stoking a political row as cases spike.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## cupid_stunt (Sep 27, 2020)

This is an interesting read about how Italy have so far escaped the massive increases in cases seen elsewhere in Europe, and is well worth reading in full.



> ROME: Coronavirus pandemic struck Italy first among the Western countries, but now it is an outlier in Europe with limited new cases compared with neighbours.
> 
> The question is why, and will it last?
> 
> ...





> That despite British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's suggestion that infections were higher in his country than in Italy or Germany because the British were "freedom-loving".
> 
> Italian President Sergio Matarella shot back that Italians also loved freedom but "we also behave responsibly".



Ouch!









						How did Italy curb the spread of COVID-19, and will it last?
					

Experts largely point to the success of a severe and lengthy lockdown, combined with a collective trauma




					www.thenews.com.pk


----------



## elbows (Sep 27, 2020)

I'm glad someone mentioned Italy.

Although I have to say I am very concerned about their testing system, and I will be using some hospital data later to make a point. I dont know how large a point it will be until I've updated my figures.


----------



## elbows (Sep 27, 2020)

OK I'm going to have to cut some corners for now but hopefully this will still be clear enough.

The impressive thing that Italy managed was in my opinion how low they managed to push their number of hospitalised cases before there was any resurgence.

But when it comes to the current trend, I think the picture is not quite so special, and positive stories about Italy that dont look at hospital data are misplaced.

Frane and Italy number of patients in hospital:




Although I should say that the trends could diverge at any time, and we might be starting to see this when looking at ICU data. Although I would caution that I think France has some differences in what patients and care their ICU figures actually cover, since their numbers tended to end up double those of other badly affected european countries during the first wave.


----------



## Numbers (Sep 27, 2020)

Worldometer fast approaching 1 million dead.


----------



## kabbes (Sep 27, 2020)

Numbers said:


> Worldometer fast approaching 1 million dead.


I suppose that’s about 2% more than would normally die in the period.  I don’t really know what I make of that fact.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 27, 2020)

Over 1 million now.


----------



## LDC (Sep 27, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Over 1 million now.



Did you see WHO said other day that 2 million likely/possible by time it's done?


----------



## Orang Utan (Sep 27, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Over 1 million now.


deaths or cases?


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 27, 2020)

Orang Utan said:


> deaths or cases?


Deaths


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 27, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Did you see WHO said other day that 2 million likely/possible by time it's done?


If 60% of the world got it (the herd immunity threshold iirc) it will be even more


----------



## Orang Utan (Sep 27, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Deaths


crikey


----------



## elbows (Sep 27, 2020)

I dont have a simple herd immunity threshold in mind.

For many reasons. The starting point for a threshold isnt clear to me (not hard to find different papers talking about 50%, 60%, 70% or even higher or lower) And the percentage will vary depending on how much of a role children play, age-specific contact patterns, how long immunity lasts.

Just one example, there is a theory that if due to behaviours/risky situations/contact patterns etc, its a subset of the population who are driving things, and the immunity levels within that group matters more than the total picture.

Anyway whatever the reality turns out to be, I dont think I would look at population immunity thresholds in terms of the global population, since there will be a lot of variation between nations until the 'end game' and that end game may not be permanent. Also crossing the herd immunity threshold doesnt mean nobody else getting sick any dying, its supposed to largely prevent epidemic-sized outbreaks but not smaller ones, sporadic cases etc.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 27, 2020)

Yeah I know the percentage can be much higher (let alone being infected twice) but 60% is the number I've heard eg needing to be vaccinated for herd immunity to be reached


----------



## elbows (Sep 27, 2020)

60% is certainly the sort of target they would have in mind based on how contagious they think this virus is (it would be much higher for something with a much higher R like measles).

I probably wont study this side of things more until the immunity/reinfection picture is clearer.


----------



## elbows (Sep 28, 2020)

France:









						France’s coronavirus second wave ‘arriving faster than we thought’
					

France will face a months-long coronavirus epidemic that will overwhelm its health system if something does not change, one of the country's top medical figures warned Sunday.




					www.france24.com
				






> "The second wave is arriving faster than we thought," Patrick Bouet, head of the National Council of the Order of Doctors, told the weekly Journal du Dimanche.





> Bouet told the paper that warnings delivered this week by Health Minister Olivier Veran had not gone far enough.
> 
> "He didn't say that in three to four weeks, if nothing changes, France will face a widespread outbreak across its whole territory, for several long autumn and winter months," Bouet said.





> There would be no medical staff available to provide reinforcements, and France's health system would be unable to meet all the demands placed on it, he warned.
> 
> The health workers responsible for the spring "miracle" would not be able plug those gaps, he added.
> 
> "Many of them are exhausted, traumatised."



And:



> over the last seven days, 4,102 people have been hospitalised, 763 of whom are being treated in intensive care.



To compare that figure, the last '7 days admissions' figure I have for England was 1860 for the 7 days up to and including 25th September. I would like to give a UK figure but the methodology and data availability varies between the four nations so I wont.


----------



## elbows (Sep 28, 2020)

Anecdotes and the limited stuff that is captured by official data suggests that Mexico has suffered hugely in the pandemic so far, one of the worst affected nations, and one that doesnt get as much attention as it should.

This is from the BBC live updates page at 11:25: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54315280



> “When will the final statistics on deaths from Covid-19 be ready? Most likely a few years after the first year of the pandemic,” Assistant Health Secretary Hugo López-Gatell said on Sunday.
> Mexico currently has the world's fourth-highest number of coronavirus fatalities, with 76,430 deaths. The country has also registered more than 730,000 cases, according to figures from Johns Hopkins University.
> However, Mexico only counts people who died after receiving a positive result for coronavirus and testing figures in the country remain low, the Associated Press news agency reports.
> Earlier this month, Amnesty International reported that more health workers had died in Mexico than any other country.


----------



## rutabowa (Sep 28, 2020)

elbows said:


> Anecdotes and the limited stuff that is captured by official data suggests that Mexico has suffered hugely in the pandemic so far, one of the worst affected nations, and one that doesnt get as much attention as it should.
> 
> This is from the BBC live updates page at 11:25: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54315280


my MIL works in a hospital in Mexico city... I heard it was "bad", but i guess that isn't new information. All schools are still closed there.


----------



## Supine (Sep 28, 2020)

Gosh. Interesting read on operation warp speed 









						New document reveals scope and structure of Operation Warp Speed and underscores vast military involvement
					

EXCLUSIVE: An organizational chart for Operation Warp Speed, obtained by STAT, reveals a highly structured initiative in which military personnel vastly outnumber civilian scientists.




					www.statnews.com


----------



## weltweit (Sep 28, 2020)

Supine said:


> Gosh. Interesting read on operation warp speed
> ..


Is there anything similar here in the UK?


----------



## zahir (Sep 29, 2020)

If accurate this report from Brazil doesn’t look good for hopes of achieving herd immunity.









						In Brazil's Amazon a COVID-19 resurgence dashes herd immunity hopes
					

The largest city in Brazil's Amazon has closed bars and river beaches to contain a fresh surge of coronavirus cases, a trend that may dash theories that Manaus was one of the world's first places to reach collective, or herd, immunity.




					mobile.reuters.com
				





In case anyone reads Portuguese.









						Fiocruz afirma que Manaus vive segunda onda da Covid-19 e propõe lockdown para conter avanço do vírus
					

Governo do Estado determinou, desde a sexta-feira (25), fechamento de bares e casas noturnas após constatação de aumento de infecções.




					g1.globo.com


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 29, 2020)

This is a shocking chart.


----------



## Supine (Sep 30, 2020)




----------



## frogwoman (Sep 30, 2020)

zahir said:


> If accurate this report from Brazil doesn’t look good for hopes of achieving herd immunity.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Depends on the number of hospitalizations and deaths tho surely? I mean if someone gets it twice but doesn't get very sick the second time around  (and doesn't spread it to other people who could get terribly sick) it might not be that bad. However if there's no immunity at all that is a problem


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 30, 2020)

> "It is undoubtedly that we are in a second wave in Manaus, that we are having an increasing number of hospitalizations for serious cases of severe acute respiratory syndromes. This type of epidemiological scenario in which the City has increased the attendance at the basic health units, you has the state government increasing the number of beds for hospitalization for suspected and confirmed cases of covid-19, it is completely incompatible with the thesis that we have herd immunity ", he said.




Oh shit


----------



## Badgers (Sep 30, 2020)

Herd immunity was always a calculated guess at best


----------



## elbows (Sep 30, 2020)

The whole herd immunity story is nearly always treated too crudely anyway. We dont understand enough to make confident claims about it, the picture probably shifts continually. Also there are quite possibly other reasons why novel viruses may lead to waves of disease with troughs in between, even in the absence of effective mitigation. Some of those may be related to immunity in some way too but I just dont think enough is really known about the subject to really explore this properly.

New York is another place where some had high hopes due to the high levels of infection the first time around, but the authorities there are starting to express concern about their recent data.

eg:









						New York City to fine people who refuse to wear masks as Covid rates rise
					

Bill de Blasio announces mask crackdown amid rise in positive tests, while officials reveal concern over virus increase in nine zip codes




					www.theguardian.com
				






> The latest citywide daily positive test rate was 3.25%, De Blasio said, a rise attributed in part to nine zip codes city health officials say have seen worrying increases in cases. In some hotspots the positivity rate was 17%.
> 
> De Blasio said officials would first offer free masks to anyone caught not wearing one. If the person refuses, the mayor told reporters, they will face an unspecified fine.
> 
> “Our goal, of course, is to give everyone a free face mask,” the mayor said. “We don’t want to fine people, but if we have to we will.”


----------



## two sheds (Sep 30, 2020)

that's about four months after the first round of infections?


----------



## elbows (Sep 30, 2020)

two sheds said:


> that's about four months after the first round of infections?



Depends what you use to define that earlier moment. Personally I would tend to go with the peak of infections, which was longer than 4 months ago.



I dont think I can deduce much about immunity from it, since the timing of lockdown easing, peoples behaviour and season effects cannot be accounted for in a way that allows us to see any immunity-related stuff on its own. And I think lockdowns, behaviours and how long it takes to resurge once cases have been pushed to a low level can explain what has been seen all over the place, without even considering any immunity issues. Which isnt to say there arent any immunity things having an impact on the picture, just that they arent necessary to explain the picture seen so far.


----------



## Chz (Sep 30, 2020)

I thought "herd immunity" was just a code for not caring how many people get it, so long as the hospitals don't get so overwhelmed that the non-Covid death rate spirals out of control? If the population _actually_ gets some immunity out of it, so much the better but I don't think it was actually the real intent.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 30, 2020)

In New York I think bars etc only opened recently and kids only go back to school later this month.


----------



## Teaboy (Sep 30, 2020)

Chz said:


> I thought "herd immunity" was just a code for not caring how many people get it, so long as the hospitals don't get so overwhelmed that the non-Covid death rate spirals out of control? If the population _actually_ gets some immunity out of it, so much the better but I don't think it was actually the real intent.



Not really.  There are plenty of conditions out there where herd immunity is a viable option, its the basis of a lot of our vaccines.  In the case of covid though it was optimism which has seemingly turned out to be misplaced.  Lots of us wanted it to be a thing just as everyone hoped that the idea it was losing its potency was a thing.  Unfortunately neither seems to be the case.  

Its a pretty brutal way to think of it but if herd immunity was possible with covid and there was a certain trade off in deaths to achieve it most (all?) countries would have gone for it providing the trade off wasn't too high.  I have no doubt the UK government would have traded 60k dead for herd immunity and a non-borked economy.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 30, 2020)

Tbh it would be reassuring to some people who had had it to know that they were immune and couldn't get it or spread it again.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 30, 2020)

The numbers in France and Spain are shocking.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 30, 2020)

Moldova recorded its highest number of new cases today having done very well in suppressing transmission with an early lockdown etc. Having lived there their health services really aren't set up for a serious outbreak


----------



## Supine (Sep 30, 2020)




----------



## two sheds (Sep 30, 2020)

"assuming adequate cleaning"


----------



## miss direct (Sep 30, 2020)

Turkish Health Ministry has only been publishing symptomatic coronavirus cases, says minister
					

Turkey's Health Minister Fahrettin Koca has made a distinction between COVID-19 "patients" and "cases," saying that the ministry has not been reporting the number of COVID-19 cases that tested positive for the virus but showed no symptoms. Koca said that COVID-19 "patients" are people with...




					www.duvarenglish.com
				




Unsurprising news that Turkey has been covering up the number of cases in a desperate attempt at attracting tourists/bragging.


----------



## Supine (Sep 30, 2020)

two sheds said:


> "assuming adequate cleaning"



My hands have never been cleaner!


----------



## two sheds (Sep 30, 2020)

I've been in the garden


----------



## prunus (Sep 30, 2020)

Supine said:


>




I’m not sure I do count that as good news -transmission by fomite is generally easier to control than that by aerosol.


----------



## FridgeMagnet (Sep 30, 2020)

It's also old news, people (actual medical people) have been saying that for months.


----------



## Supine (Sep 30, 2020)

FridgeMagnet said:


> It's also old news, people (actual medical people) have been saying that for months.



That article is from the Lancet


----------



## Supine (Sep 30, 2020)

prunus said:


> I’m not sure I do count that as good news -transmission by fomite is generally easier to control than that by aerosol.



It's good news in that we are understanding it more.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Sep 30, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> This is a shocking chart.




Either I’ve got access to some kind of time travel portal or I’ve defin seen that before. I feel like I saw that way back in April or June, so I’m wondering has changed position at all.

But yeah, Black Death baby!

HIV/AIDS also shocking.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 30, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Either I’ve got access to some kind of time travel portal or I’ve defin seen that before. I feel like I saw that way back in April or June, so I’m wondering has changed position at all.
> 
> But yeah, Black Death baby!



It has yea, it has moved along in position as it's overtaken various plagues.


----------



## two sheds (Sep 30, 2020)

i hadn't realized that HIV had killed so many


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Sep 30, 2020)

Supine said:


> It's good news in that we are understanding it more.




Also good to know that I can stop obsessing about cleaning down every item that comes into my home.

It has definitely made me feel more in control, less at the mercy of it.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Sep 30, 2020)

two sheds said:


> i hadn't realized that HIV had killed so many




A lot of gay men are justifiably aggrieved that this plague has got so much more public attention than HIV/AIDS did at the equivalent stage of the game.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 30, 2020)

Yeah, although good news is HIV is killing far fewer people than it used to. However, the pandemic has interrupted provision of aids drugs and treatments for other diseases  

Laura Spinney's book on Spanish flu talks about how the flu had a knock on effect on worsening the effects of other diseases too which went untreated  for example there were some very bad cholera outbreaks at the same time.


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Sep 30, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Yeah, although good news is HIV is killing far fewer people than it used to. However, the pandemic has interrupted provision of aids drugs and treatments for other diseases
> 
> Laura Spinney's book on Spanish flu talks about how the flu had a knock on effect on worsening the effects of other diseases too which went untreated  for example there were some very bad cholera outbreaks at the same time.




‘Twas every thus, and here we are again.


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 30, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> ‘Twas every thus, and here we are again.


It's a great book. It could have been written yesterday


----------



## frogwoman (Sep 30, 2020)

When I first heard of this story at the start of the year I didn't think it was a big deal and definitely didnt imagine over a million people would die from it


----------



## SheilaNaGig (Oct 1, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> When I first heard of this story at the start of the year I didn't think it was a big deal and definitely didnt imagine over a million people would die from it




I paused for a moment and then thought it would be like SARS1 and MERS and we’d be okay.

By mid February I was repeating IRL what I was reading here and getting the side-eye from friends. Without elbows and weltweit ’s ongoing reports I would have dropped the whole issue from my mind.


----------



## elbows (Oct 1, 2020)

Oh I dont know, I dont like to take that much credit, there were quite a lot of people who kept the subject very alive on here in those initial months. I had my angles and themes that I drummed into people but things would still have progressed much the same without me in terms of seeing this thing coming.

Anyway I popped in to mention Madrid again, a new level of lockdown but the political rows continue:



> The Spanish government has ordered a lockdown in the capital Madrid and surrounding areas badly affected by coronavirus after a rise in cases.
> Under the new restrictions, residents will not be allowed to leave the area unless they have to make an essential journey.
> However, Madrid's regional government says the lockdown is not legally valid.











						Madrid coronavirus: Spain orders lockdown amid rise in cases
					

The central government imposes restrictions in the capital region as Covid-19 cases continue to rise.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## prunus (Oct 1, 2020)

SheilaNaGig said:


> Also good to know that I can stop obsessing about cleaning down every item that comes into my home.
> 
> It has definitely made me feel more in control, less at the mercy of it.



Yes it’s definitely good in that way, and certainly every piece of new information we gain is better than not having it, even if it’s not what we’d ideally like to hear - uncomfortable facts are better than comforting errors in this context.


----------



## miss direct (Oct 1, 2020)

Annnnnd Turkey added to the quarantine list (and Poland). A long time coming. Luckily for me, my partner got back yesterday.


----------



## elbows (Oct 2, 2020)

Sounds like the regional Madrid government finally caved in:



> Madrid’s regional authorities will shortly put the Spanish capital and nine nearby towns under partial lockdown, with immediate effect, a source from Madrid’s regional government told Reuters on Friday.
> 
> With 859 cases per 100,000 people, the *Madrid* region is the worst Covid-19 hotspot in Europe.
> 
> The reluctant move — by the conservative-led regional government — follows an order from the Socialist-led central government to ban non-essential travel to and from Madrid.



 16m ago 11:45


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 3, 2020)

Solomon Islands has first case of Covid-19
					

Solomon Islands have recorded their first case of Covid-19.




					www.rnz.co.nz


----------



## MrSki (Oct 4, 2020)

This looks good from Thailand. Using tech wisely.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 4, 2020)

Israel’s Hospitals Are at Brink of Collapse in Devastating Second COVID Wave
					

Netanyahu bars protests as COVID-19 infections surge and hospitals close regular wards to take in a massive influx of severe coronavirus patients.



					www.thedailybeast.com
				






> For every coronavirus ward opening up, she noted, a non-coronavirus ward closes. There are not enough doctors to operate both. Patients who would otherwise receive top-notch care were being discharged early and “in the coming months hospitals will be forced to make unimaginable choices,” she said.


----------



## Idris2002 (Oct 4, 2020)

Breaking news here in Ireland is that the country may be about to move to Level 5 restrictions, the highest possible - basically "return to your homes and stay there".









						NPHET recommends Level 5 restrictions for whole country
					

NPHET has recommended the highest level of restrictions for the entire country, Level 5, in a letter sent to Government.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 4, 2020)

Idris2002 said:


> Breaking news here in Ireland is that the country may be about to move to Level 5 restrictions, the highest possible - basically "return to your homes and stay there".
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So another lockdown in all but name? Your infection rate isn't that bad tho?


----------



## 8ball (Oct 4, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> So another lockdown in all but name?



The markets don't like that word.


----------



## IC3D (Oct 4, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Israel’s Hospitals Are at Brink of Collapse in Devastating Second COVID Wave
> 
> 
> Netanyahu bars protests as COVID-19 infections surge and hospitals close regular wards to take in a massive influx of severe coronavirus patients.
> ...


Israel seemed to have a very aging population and close knit families when I was there, I guess its inevitable they would be hit hard.


----------



## Idris2002 (Oct 4, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> So another lockdown in all but name? Your infection rate isn't that bad tho?


It's not as good as it should be, and it's got worse in the past few weeks. Just because we're not governed by Cummings the Freak and his pet mutant doesn't mean that all is rosy in the Irish Covid garden.


----------



## Aladdin (Oct 4, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> So another lockdown in all but name? Your infection rate isn't that bad tho?




We have fewer than 400 ICU beds in the entire country. 
Case numbers are growing at 4% a day.


----------



## two sheds (Oct 5, 2020)

Fascinating article in The Atlantic, don't know whether it's been covered before. A lot in there that will be familiar but it does seem to tie together a lot of separate strands. 









						This Overlooked Variable Is the Key to the Pandemic
					

It’s not R.




					www.theatlantic.com
				




It's long (as are my quotes, sorry) but I found it really worthwhile.



> By now many people have heard about R0—the basic reproductive number of a pathogen, a measure of its contagiousness on average. But unless you’ve been reading scientific journals, you’re less likely to have encountered _k_, the measure of its dispersion. The definition of _k_ is a mouthful, but it’s simply a way of asking whether a virus spreads in a steady manner or in big bursts, whereby one person infects many, all at once. After nine months of collecting epidemiological data, we know that this is an _overdispersed_ pathogen, meaning that it tends to spread in clusters, but this knowledge has not yet fully entered our way of thinking about the pandemic—or our preventive practices.
> 
> ...
> 
> There are COVID-19 incidents in which a single person likely infected 80 percent or more of the people in the room in just a few hours. But, at other times, COVID-19 can be surprisingly much less contagious. Overdispersion and super-spreading of this virus are found in research across the globe. A growing number of studies estimate that a majority of infected people may not infect a single other person. A recent paper found that in Hong Kong, which had extensive testing and contact tracing, about 19 percent of cases were responsible for 80 percent of transmission, while 69 percent of cases did not infect another person. This finding is not rare: Multiple studies from the beginning have suggested that as few as 10 to 20 percent of infected people may be responsible for as much as 80 to 90 percent of transmission, and that many people barely transmit it.



and talks more about Pareto effect



> In study after study, we see that super-spreading clusters of COVID-19 almost overwhelmingly occur in poorly ventilated, indoor environments where many people congregate over time—weddings, churches, choirs, gyms, funerals, restaurants, and such—especially when there is loud talking or singing without masks. For super-spreading events to occur, multiple things have to be happening at the same time, and the risk is not equal in every setting and activity, Muge Cevik, a clinical lecturer in infectious diseases and medical virology at the University of St. Andrews and a co-author of a recent extensive review of transmission conditions for COVID-19, told me.
> 
> ...
> 
> ...



Then talks about reasons for Korean, Japanese, Swedish, American and European experiences of covid in the light of the above.

Eta: I've had to miss out lots of interesting details - worth reading the whole even though it is long, or searching for keywords you're interested in and just reading those sections.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Oct 5, 2020)

I read that the other day two sheds. Strong article.


----------



## MrSki (Oct 5, 2020)

New York City to close public schools from Wednesday.


----------



## Cid (Oct 5, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Fascinating article in The Atlantic, don't know whether it's been covered before. A lot in there that will be familiar but it does seem to tie together a lot of separate strands.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Very interesting that.


----------



## Idris2002 (Oct 5, 2020)

Looks like the Leinster House regime (why did no one ever call it that, btw?) is going to veto level 5, and declare level 3 nationwide.









						Covid-19: Govt approves Level 3 restrictions nationwide
					

The Cabinet has agreed to reject NPHET's recommendation to place the entire country under Level 5 restrictions, instead approving Level 3 restrictions nationwide.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 5, 2020)

Spain is on 852 thousand infections. Fuck


----------



## Idris2002 (Oct 5, 2020)

The boffins wanted the full level 5: the govt is gambling that level 3 will do the job.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 5, 2020)

Apparently the WHO thinks only 10% of people have had it.


----------



## Orang Utan (Oct 5, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Apparently the WHO thinks only 10% of people have had it.


ONLY???


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 5, 2020)

Orang Utan said:


> ONLY???


Right? 

Well according to some 'herd immunity' cranks we're on our way to 70% having had it in the world. This is not true obviously 

If it can cause this much shit with 10% of people having been ill, it could get much worse


----------



## Orang Utan (Oct 5, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Right?
> 
> Well according to some 'herd immunity' cranks we're on our way to 70% having had it in the world. This is not true obviously
> 
> If it can cause this much shit with 10% of people having been ill, it could get much worse


no, i'm surprised it's that much - 1 in 10 is a lot of people


----------



## two sheds (Oct 5, 2020)

Orang Utan said:


> no, i'm surprised it's that much - 1 in 10 is a lot of people


that's what I thought when I saw it


----------



## LDC (Oct 6, 2020)

Orang Utan said:


> no, i'm surprised it's that much - 1 in 10 is a lot of people



I know what you mean, it feels high, but it's a low number unfortunately.

If 10% have had it and 1 million (and rising, have died), the number of deaths if another 60%+ get it is pretty shit.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Oct 6, 2020)

Orang Utan said:


> no, i'm surprised it's that much - 1 in 10 is a lot of people


Especially when you consider that 1 in 4 people in the world are in China, a place where they kept outbreaks and infection relatively low.


----------



## MrSki (Oct 6, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> Especially when you consider that 1 in 4 people in the world are in China, a place where they kept outbreaks and infection relatively low.


18% of the world population so more like one in five.


----------



## Cid (Oct 6, 2020)

Yeah I’m not sure how helpful the global estimate is... I guess it’s more intended as a warning than an accurate assessment.


----------



## Cid (Oct 6, 2020)

India was reporting 6.8% based on a serological survey from mid Aug to mid sept, US 7% for August.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 6, 2020)

Poor Spain


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Oct 6, 2020)

This doesn't look good, no idea how NL compares with the UK at the moment.


----------



## elbows (Oct 6, 2020)

Can customise that chart here: Free to read: Coronavirus tracked: has the epidemic peaked near you?

I stuck a different mix of countries into that same configuration of graph and got this:


----------



## elbows (Oct 7, 2020)

It can be hard to keep up with on again, off again regulations in Belgium but I see things got tighter again there recently and now especially so in Brussels:



> All bars, cafes and event halls in Brussels have been told they must shut down for at least a month as of 7am (CET) on Thursday as the Belgian capital went beyond recently tightened national restrictions in Belgium.
> 
> The minister-president of the Brussels-Capital region, *Rudi Vervoort*, said drinking alcohol in a public place would also be banned, sports clubs would have to close their canteens and food consumption in the market was prohibited amid a spiralling infection rate.
> 
> Restaurants will remain open for now in an attempt to keep the hospitality industry alive



 32m ago 11:59


----------



## elbows (Oct 7, 2020)

Italy introduced new rules involving masks:



> The new law, which was approved by the Italian government this morning and will be valid for 30 days, consists of two steps. People are required to carry face masks with them at all times in Italy and, as of October 8, masks must be worn always when outdoors, unless in “isolated” areas and “during sports”.



Also:



> From October 8, swab testing will be mandatory for persons arriving in the country from the UK, Holland and Belgium, as is currently the case for travellers coming from Croatia, Greece, Malta, Spain and certain areas of France, including Paris.











						Covid-19: new rules in Italy | The Florentine
					

As of October 8, throughout Italy, masks must be worn always when outdoors, unless in isolated areas and while doing sports.




					www.theflorentine.net


----------



## 2hats (Oct 7, 2020)

elbows said:


> Italy introduced new rules involving masks:
> 
> 
> > From October 8, swab testing will be mandatory for persons arriving in the country from the UK


Booking a return flight might be the easiest way for UK citizens to guarantee getting a test with a timely result.


----------



## Mation (Oct 7, 2020)

2hats said:


> Booking a return flight might be the easiest way for UK citizens to guarantee getting a test with a timely result.


With the added bonus of reviving the budget airline industry 

(This year is so fucking weird and dysfunctional that I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to read that this has become an actual thing. )


----------



## Badgers (Oct 7, 2020)

Who had 'MERS Coronavirus' in the 2020/2021 sweepstake? 



> Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) remains of global public health concern. Dromedary camels are the source of zoonotic infection. Over 70% of MERS coronavirus (MERS-CoV)-infected dromedaries are found in Africa but no zoonotic disease has been reported in Africa. We aimed to understand whether individuals with exposure to dromedaries in Africa had been infected by MERS-CoV.





			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30599-5/fulltext


----------



## 2hats (Oct 7, 2020)

Badgers said:


> Who had 'MERS Coronavirus' in the 2020/2021 sweepstake?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Only a 34.4% case fatality rate.

(Though that should help limit spread).


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 7, 2020)

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
					

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.




					uk.reuters.com
				






> Some 1,387 people are currently hospitalised with COVID-19, six times higher than a month ago, including 326 in intensive care, an increase of more than five times.


----------



## elbows (Oct 7, 2020)

Iran is having a nightmare with its 'third wave'.









						Coronavirus: Iran sets new record for deaths amid 'third wave'
					

The country, one of the hardest hit in the Middle East, has also seen a spike in Covid-19 infections.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 7, 2020)

elbows said:


> Iran is having a nightmare with its 'third wave'.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



And, I doubt those numbers are anywhere need the real ones.


----------



## elbows (Oct 7, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> And, I doubt those numbers are anywhere need the real ones.



Or a bit of both and the reason they are breaking records this time is that they might be hiding less of the deaths this time. I might never know.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 7, 2020)

It's a tragedy in poorer countries where health systems are out  of date or underfunded, there are conflicts, people have other issues which haven't been treated etc.


----------



## kabbes (Oct 7, 2020)

It’s not a third wave in Iran.  It’s still the first wave.


----------



## elbows (Oct 7, 2020)

kabbes said:


> It’s not a third wave in Iran.  It’s still the first wave.



Yeah, and there is no universal, clearly defined consensus about what constitutes the exact boundaries between epidemic waves in the first place, and certainly not in this pandemic where wave mitigation is undertaken and then relaxed in a cycle.

With that said I'm probably not going to spend any energy trying to fight against what the general public and media think terms mean to them in this pandemic. If it looks like a series of waves on graphs of cases, hospitalisations and deaths then I think its fair enough that people will use that language, including officials that are trying to describe the situation to the public.


----------



## Supine (Oct 8, 2020)

Face Shields are useless for protection against covid. Wear a mask...


----------



## quimcunx (Oct 8, 2020)

Not that surprising really and I've seen before that they're for use with masks not instead of. 

Surprised it's as low as 2% though.


----------



## elbows (Oct 8, 2020)

Just to be clear, that study is looking at the protection of others, not protection of the person wearing the face shield.

But yeah, whichever way you look at it, I dont recommend use of face shields alone, which stands to reason as in theory they all about protection of the wearer from infection via the eyeballs rather than anything else.


----------



## kabbes (Oct 8, 2020)

The graph doesn’t show 2%, it shows a confidence interval indistinguishable from zero.


----------



## elbows (Oct 8, 2020)

The Madrid fiasco continues:



> Madrid's regional court has struck down an order that imposed a partial lockdown in the Spanish capital and nine nearby towns.
> 
> In a statement, the court backed an appeal by the local authorities, saying the order by the Spanish health ministry "impacted on the rights and fundamental freedoms" of some 4.5 million people affected by the restrictions.
> 
> The Madrid region had been forced to ban residents from leaving their houses without a valid reason from last Saturday.



From BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54460270


----------



## emanymton (Oct 8, 2020)

Supine said:


> Face Shields are useless for protection against covid. Wear a mask...



Should have another column for covering your mouth and not your nose.


----------



## Edie (Oct 8, 2020)

kabbes said:


> The graph doesn’t show 2%, it shows a confidence interval indistinguishable from zero.


Also for most diameters, unlikely to be a significant difference between the three masks which aren’t N95.


----------



## ska invita (Oct 8, 2020)

Supine said:


> Face Shields are useless for protection against covid. Wear a mask...



Depends surely on what "aeresol" and how it is distributed? Is it equal to breathing/speaking


----------



## elbows (Oct 8, 2020)

Sounds like the German health authorities have had to resort to mentioning stuff that is closely related to the self-defeating prophecy concept that I know we've discussed a couple of times here in the past.

Has a different name for it though....









						Coronavirus: Bars to shut in four more French cities with alert level raised
					

Bars and restaurants are to close in Lyon, Lille, Grenoble and Saint-Etienne, as infections spike.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> But at a news conference with Mr Spahn, RKI President Lothar Wieler said Germans must be wary of what he called the "prevention paradox" - the feeling that measures were no longer needed because case numbers were relatively low.


----------



## elbows (Oct 9, 2020)

Spanish government now bypassing the Madrid regional government bullshit via the last resort means of declaring a state of emergency!









						Coronavirus: Spain imposes state of emergency on Madrid
					

The order follows a court decision to lift a partial lockdown on the capital and nine nearby cities.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 9, 2020)

__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com


----------



## 2hats (Oct 9, 2020)

Maximum of 12 month immunity seems quite likely.









						Seasonal coronavirus protective immunity is short-lasting - Nature Medicine
					

The durability of immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is unknown. Lessons from seasonal coronavirus infections in humans show that reinfections can occur within 12 months of initial infection, coupled with changes in levels of virus-specific antibodies.




					www.nature.com


----------



## Teaboy (Oct 9, 2020)

2hats said:


> Maximum of 12 month immunity seems quite likely.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Obviously its speculation but that's not necessarily bad news.  At least it implies there is a level of immunity gained even if its relatively short lasting.  I guess the potential is there for any future vaccine to be done on a year by year basis just as the flu jab is now.  In fact it may even be included in the flu jab.


----------



## elbows (Oct 9, 2020)

> Urgency was needed, according to the government, given that Monday is a national holiday, and this weekend is a time when Madrileños would usually be heading out to their second residences or to the coast or countryside. “We must avoid the virus from spreading out of control this holiday weekend,” Illa explained.





> The National Police and the Civil Guard deployed 7,000 officers in different parts of Madrid on Friday afternoon, in order to ensure that the new restrictions were observed. The checkpoints were not just located on freeways heading in and out of Madrid, but also at the city’s Barajas Airport and at train stations, according to police sources cited by EFE.



You know Spain has problems when they resort to using the UK as an example to follow!



> Illa pointed to cities such as Paris, and countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany, that are currently implementing strict coronavirus measures with much lower infection rates than Madrid.











						“Patience has its limits,” says health minister after government declares state of alarm in Madrid
					

The National Police and the Civil Guard deployed 7,000 officers in different parts of Madrid on Friday afternoon, in order to ensure that the new restrictions were observed and that those confined to their municipalities did not leave the region




					english.elpais.com


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 9, 2020)

I don't think France is an example to follow tbh 
And infections seem to be lowering in Spain today


> Paris hospitals move into emergency mode amid rise in Covid-19 patients
> Hospitals in the Paris region have moved into emergency mode, cancelling staff holidays and postponing non-essential operations, as coronavirus patients made up close to half of all patients in intensive care units (ICUs).
> 
> Health authorities on Wednesday reported a record 24-hour rise in new Covid-19 infections, with almost 19,000 additional cases reported as the number of people in ICUs nationwide stood at around 1,400, levels last seen in late May.
> ...


----------



## elbows (Oct 9, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I don't think France is an example to follow tbh
> And infections seem to be lowering in Spain today



I think they were desperately looking for examples of countries taking recent action to control virus resurgence, rather than countries that were doing well in other ways. Which still makes the UK an odd choice! I guess they chose Paris because of recent restrictions imposed because of the situation you have just described.


----------



## editor (Oct 9, 2020)

Fantastic artwork


----------



## sideboob (Oct 10, 2020)

Suicide spike in Japan shows mental health toll of COVID-19
					

The numbers hint at what may be going on around the world as countries grapple with the fallout from mass unemployment and social isolation.




					www.japantimes.co.jp
				



The number of suicides rose in Japan in August due to more women and school-aged children taking their own lives — offering a first glimpse into the consequences of the mental health strain brought about by COVID-19 around the globe.

A grim look into the future of things to come.  I would be happy to be under full lockdown and hibernate until the pandemic passes, but this article reminds me that there are a lot of people out there under tremendous stress in dire situations.


----------



## ska invita (Oct 10, 2020)

sideboob said:


> Suicide spike in Japan shows mental health toll of COVID-19
> 
> 
> The numbers hint at what may be going on around the world as countries grapple with the fallout from mass unemployment and social isolation.
> ...


India too....ive never been there, i know its hard at the best of times but sounds really grim now. This isnt a great article, but gives an idea




__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com
				



*Suicides rise after virus puts squeeze on India’s middle class*


Manu and Jeena started working at one of India’s top IT companies on the same day two years ago, brimming with enthusiasm as they embarked on their careers. But as the months went by, Manu watched Jeena, a kind woman in her mid-20s with striking almond-shaped eyes, growing increasingly stressed at work. The coronavirus pandemic only intensified the pressure: their monthly salary of about Rs17k ($231) was cut by 11 per cent, while some employees were “benched” with no work. In May, after not working for weeks, Jeena committed suicide. “She died in despair over losing her job,” said her brother in the police report.

The company in Kochi denies she was laid off or that her salary was cut. “It's very shocking for me. She was a good friend and colleague and like my sister,” said Manu, who asked to use a pseudonym over fear of repercussions. “I can’t accept that she is no longer here. I think about her every day.” There is fear and widespread panic. The entire Indian economy is in the petrified zone Shamika Ravi, Brookings Institution The 27-year-old said he wanted to resign from the company but, like Jeena, he bears the middle-class burden of loans as well as supporting his family. After paying his rent and Rs10k in loans, Manu is left with just Rs800 for monthly expenses. “We are all facing family issues and debt,” he said. “It is terrible.”

Even before Covid-19 hit, white-collar workers were under immense pressure as India’s growth stalled. Suicides among professionals have climbed for two consecutive years, averaging 23 a day in 2019, according to the National Crime Records Bureau. “It’s the uncertainty that causes the maximum distress,” said Lakshmi Vijayakumar, a psychiatrist and suicide expert in Chennai, who added that the pandemic had led to significantly more suicides among professionals. “They are burnt out and Zoomed out,” she said. “There is the fear of infection and financial insecurity.” The pandemic has compounded India’s economic challenges, with millions losing their jobs. *The country’s economic output shrank by 24 per cent in the three months to June compared with the same period last year, the steepest fall among the world’s largest economies. *

While casual labourers are beginning to pick up more work, middle-class professionals are still struggling. India has the world’s second-highest coronavirus infection rate © Danish Siddiqui/Reuters The Centre for Monitoring the Indian Economy (CMIE), a think-tank, reported that 6.6m white-collar jobs — including those held by engineers, physicians and teachers — were lost between May and August 2020, the steepest fall among salaried workers. Efforts to revive the economy have been thwarted by rising numbers of infections. With more than 6.6m confirmed coronavirus cases, India is expected to surpass the US soon as the country with the highest number of infections.

“There is fear and widespread panic,” said Shamika Ravi, economist at Brookings Institution in New Delhi. “The entire Indian economy is in the petrified zone.” As the coronavirus cases continued to climb through the summer, so did white-collar job cuts. Vinod AJ lost his job in August as a software engineer earning about Rs90k a month with Cognizant. “The fear factor is everywhere,” said Mr Vinod, speaking from Chennai, where he lives with his wife and two-year-old daughter. Are you under 30? We are exploring the impact of the pandemic on young people and want to hear from readers between 16 and 30. Tell us about your experiences from the past six months via a short survey. For 13 years, he has sent money back to his family in the town of Kanyakumari, where his parents worked as teachers and his grandparents were rice farmers. Desperation is rising among employees, many of whom were the first generation to go to university and still support families living in rural areas, said Mr Vinod, who also works as general secretary for All India Forum for IT Employees.

“These mass lay-offs are putting fear into junior employees, we are wondering how prosperity and jobs will pick up again,” said Mr Vinod. Coronavirus laid bare the deep structural problems in India’s economy. For years there have not been enough jobs for the more than 10m graduates who enter India’s workforce annually. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vaunted “Make in India” initiative, designed to boost manufacturing jobs, has failed to take off. Despite earning top degrees in business administration or engineering, many graduates have been forced to shelve their aspirations and take jobs working as drivers for Uber or food delivery companies. Why India is struggling to cope with Covid-19 The youth are particularly hard hit. “This is a matter of serious concern,” said Mahesh Vyas, chief executive of the CMIE.

“Having cleared their exams and found a job, they’ve lost it all,” he said. “It could be three cohorts of graduates competing for very few jobs two years down the line.” The blow to the middle class, India’s growth engine, is sharply weakening demand and complicating the country’s economic recovery. Reflecting the collapse in consumption, India reported a record high current account surplus of $19.8bn in the second quarter as merchandise imports plummeted. But the crisis was also an opportunity to enact deep reforms, said Nguyen Trinh, economist at Natixis in Hong Kong. “The middle class barely got developed in the first place,” she said.

“The question is what is Modi going to do about it?” Mr Modi’s second term, however, has been dominated by a divisive political agenda. His ruling Bharatiya Janata party pushed through agricultural reforms last month, but with suppressed demand the prospects of winning job-generating investments are slim. Manu, meanwhile, is hoping to find work at a different company. “I’m ready to do any job, it doesn’t have to be white-collar,” he said. “My dream is to own a house. But this situation is pathetic.” Additional reporting by Jyotsna Singh


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 10, 2020)

it's world mental health day today


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 10, 2020)

North Korea's Kim attends military parade, thanks troops for stopping coronavirus
					

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un addressed an unusual predawn military parade early on Saturday, praising the troops for working hard to respond to natural disasters and to prevent a coronavirus outbreak, state television reported.




					www.cnbc.com
				













						Kim Jong-un praises troops for 'stopping coronavirus' at massive military parade
					

No one at the parade appeared to be wearing face masks or social distancing




					www.independent.co.uk
				




Meanwhile in North Korea


----------



## Supine (Oct 10, 2020)

Fascinating article on the structure of Covid. With some animations. 









						The Coronavirus Unveiled (Published 2020)
					

Scientists around the world have captured detailed images of the coronavirus.



					www.nytimes.com


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 10, 2020)

French coronavirus cases set new 24-hour record with nearly 27,000 infections


----------



## zora (Oct 11, 2020)

Watched a German talk show yesterday, where a man talked incredibly movingly about his ordeal of being in intensive care with covid. 

He fell ill early in March, without any idea where he contracted the illness, at a time when incidence in Germany was still low. He managed to check himself into hospital where he was put immediately into an induced coma, and kept in coma for 5 weeks. His lung function was down to 4%, his kidneys shut down and he had a heart attack. He lost 25kg of muscle mass. He spoke about the utter shock of coming to and being unable to move and the terrible fear he experienced when awake but still on oxygen support and still feeling like having to fight for every breath. 

An intensive care doctor was also on the show who was also visibly moved by the frank and authentic manner the man reported this, as well as by the incredible care and courage from the nurses.

The mental and emotional toll of this time in intensive care was clearly visible. 
His left foot is still numb from a nerve being squashed during the pronation procedure. (Apparently it takes five skilled professionals to do this turning over and ensure that the lines of the various drips and machines don't get disrupted).

Anyway, in a way it's nothing new, but I think there has been quite a lot blythe talk (not here, of course, but in the wider public realm) about how much better we know now to treat the illness, including the famous turning a person onto their belly - but it was incredibly interesting and very emotional to hear what this actually means for a person.


----------



## Flavour (Oct 11, 2020)

elbows what do you think -- will european countries shut their borders with each other again soon?


----------



## elbows (Oct 11, 2020)

Flavour said:


> elbows what do you think -- will european countries shut their borders with each other again soon?



The powers that be really hate doing that. So far they are able to delay and fudge such decisions this time around because the resurgence often resembles what we saw in March but in slow motion, giving more time for delay and disagreement. If the pace of things changes then they could very quickly end up forced into making similar decisions to last time, but if they can get away with it they will probably attempt a more subtle version, where specific countries targeted, and various exemptions. But ultimately if the virus is back at high levels in most populations then pretty strict stuff seems inevitable, its just a question of timing. And hospital capacity and Covid-19 patient levels is one of the things that forces them to act quickly with the big decisions, so how confident they feel about that stuff is a big factor in their decision making.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Oct 11, 2020)

More asymptomatic case study stuff:









						Symptoms of Covid-19 are a poor marker of infection
					

86% of people who tested positive for Covid-19 during lockdown did not have virus symptoms (cough, and/or fever, and/or loss of taste/smell), finds a study by UCL researchers. The authors say a more widespread testing programme is needed to catch ‘silent’ transmission.




					www.ucl.ac.uk


----------



## Supine (Oct 11, 2020)

Excellent slide deck from Japan. Contact tracing focused on finding clusters. 



			https://www.mhlw.go.jp/content/10900000/000635891.pdf


----------



## two sheds (Oct 11, 2020)

Interesting, ta. Eminently sensible approach.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 12, 2020)

A few months ago, Iran allegedly attempted to go for a 'herd immunity' strategy.









						Tehran is leading the Iranian people into a coronavirus catastrophe
					

In a research paper published on April 2, 2020, in the semi-official ISNA news agency, four epidemiologists from the University of Tehran said that there was a coherent strategy ‍ahead which the Iranian regime would be using to fight the new coronavirus. We were told that the government would be...



					reaction.life
				




Now it is seeing higher than ever records of cases and deaths  today there was 272


----------



## zahir (Oct 12, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Tehran is leading the Iranian people into a coronavirus catastrophe
> 
> 
> In a research paper published on April 2, 2020, in the semi-official ISNA news agency, four epidemiologists from the University of Tehran said that there was a coherent strategy ‍ahead which the Iranian regime would be using to fight the new coronavirus. We were told that the government would be...
> ...



Hi frogwoman, that article looks to be written by someone from the MEK and so should probably we treated with caution. It may or may not be accurate but it can be hard to tell. It's one of the hazards of trying to follow Iranian opposition sources - everyone has an agenda but particularly the MEK.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 12, 2020)

zahir said:


> Hi frogwoman, that article looks to be written by someone from the MEK and so should probably we treated with caution. It may or may not be accurate but it can be hard to tell - that's one of the hazards of trying to follow Iranian opposition sources.


OK, thanks for letting me know.


----------



## zahir (Oct 12, 2020)

Sorry, I edited it after you quoted. I've linked to Iranian sources before and later realised they were MEK. It's easy to do.


----------



## William of Walworth (Oct 13, 2020)

I had no idea what 'MEK' was  and as I may not be alone in that, here's the Wiki entry :




			
				Wikipedia said:
			
		

> The *People's Mujahedin Organization of Iran*, or the *Mujahedin-e Khalq* (Persian: سازمان مجاهدين خلق ايران‎, romanized: _sâzmân-e mojâhedīn-e khalq-e īrân_, abbreviated *MEK*, *PMOI* or *MKO*), is an Iranian political-militant organization.[24][25][26] It advocates overthrowing the Islamic Republic of Iran leadership and installing its own government.[27][28][29] Its revolutionary interpretation of Islam contrasts with the conservative Islam of the traditional clergy as well as the populist Islamism developed by Ayatollah Khomeini in the 1970s.[30] It is also considered the Islamic Republic of Iran's biggest and most active political opposition group.



(ETA : actual link above ...  )


----------



## zahir (Oct 13, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> I had no idea what 'MEK' was  and as I may not be alone in that, here's the Wiki entry



It's a mad political cult. Here"s a report picked pretty much at random: Defectors Tell of Torture and Forced Sterilization in Militant Iranian Cult


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 13, 2020)

Really hope that this is just a one in a million occurrence  First Covid-19 Reinfection Death Recorded In Netherlands


----------



## 8ball (Oct 13, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Really hope that this is just a one in a million occurrence  First Covid-19 Reinfection Death Recorded In Netherlands



Still a lot to learn about the durability and effectiveness of immunity, sadly.


----------



## spring-peeper (Oct 14, 2020)

Here, in Canada, we are all doing the "science" and we are doing without political barriers.  All parties on the three levels of government are working together.
Health care is provincial, so the Feds listen to what the provinces need and act.
Our premiere, Doug Ford, campaigned on the promise he would oppose Trudeau.  Wrt this, health care and virus are exempt from the squabble. there is plenty of other things to disagree on.

I'm from Ontario, so we listen to our premiere who listens to the science.
Our numbers are rising, so to try to reduce the contact, the government named three regions who have to go back a stage.
These regions are Toronto, Peel (around Toronto) and Ottawa.



We were asked to curb back our Thanksgiving and keep it to a household event.

Then the anti-maskers demonstrated near our premiere's house.









						Doug Ford blasts anti-maskers who targeted his home on Thanksgiving weekend
					

Ontario Premier Doug Ford told the people who believe the COVID-19 pandemic is a hoax that it's "as real as I'm standing here."



					ottawa.ctvnews.ca
				






> Just days after Premier Doug Ford imposed sweeping new restrictions on businesses in Toronto, Peel and Ottawa, to try to bring down soaring rates of COVID-19 infections, anti-masking protesters targeted Ford at his home in west Toronto over Thanksgiving weekend.
> 
> “We have the anti-maskers showing up to my house again, you know flying the flag upside down…you want to disrespect our country and our flag…get going, take off, leave,” Ford said.
> 
> “You can be a denier, you can be an anti-masker. You can be whatever. This is a democratic country. You can say what you want, but I’m just coming up here and telling you what I know,” Ford said.







> A recent poll by Leger and the Association for Canadian Studies, showed that support for wearing masks is getting stronger in Canada. Eighty-three per cent of respondents feel governments should order people to wear a mask in all indoor public spaces.
> 
> That represents an increase of 16 per cent from July.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 14, 2020)

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
					

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.




					uk.reuters.com
				




Jfc. And sanctions have just been reimposed


----------



## ice-is-forming (Oct 14, 2020)

Well this is what's happening in Queensland. Which is wonderful, but I feel guilty posting it.

*Townsville woman tests positive in Melbourne after visiting Queensland cities*

A Queensland woman in her 30s who tested for positive for COVID-19 in Victoria after visiting several Queensland cities has triggered a coronavirus scare, with several people in the state ordered to isolate themselves for 14 days.
The case was discovered after the virus was detected in Townsville's wastewater at the weekend.





Health Minister Steven Miles says Queensland Health is treating the case as if the woman was infected in Queensland.

Deputy Premier Steven Miles said the woman was a Townsville resident who travelled to Cairns and Brisbane before arriving in Melbourne to be with family while receiving medical treatment.
She had been in Melbourne for three days before she tested positive.

"The team and Queensland Health have asked a number of people who may have been in contact with her to quarantine themselves for 14 days and get tested during that period," he said.
Mr Miles, who is also the Health Minister, said health authorities were treating the case as if she was infectious in Queensland as a precautionary measure.
"It's most likely she contracted it in Melbourne. She was in Melbourne several days before getting tested," he said.
"However, the way we've been so successful has been by being ultra, ultra-cautious ... contact tracing is under way."
Mr Miles said the woman was not showing any symptoms of COVID-19.

"That’s why it’s challenging for us to identify when she may have been infectious because she appears to be one of those asymptomatic cases," he said.
The woman visited the following locations in Townsville:

Icon Cancer Centre Townsville on September 28 from 4pm-5pm
Mater Day Surgery at Hyde Park on September 29
NQ Vascular at Pimlico on September 30 from 1pm-2pm
Mater Day Surgery on October 1
She flew from Townsville to Cairns on flight QF2302 on October 3 before taking flight VA 782 from Cairns to Brisbane on October 6.
Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young urged people to not be complacent.

“We are asking anyone who has been to these suburbs at thes9e dates and times to monitor their health," she said.
"If you develop any COVID-19 symptoms, no matter how mild, get tested."
“The woman’s treating doctors in Queensland have also taken COVID-19 tests and are isolating until they receive their results.”
Queensland recorded no new cases on Wednesday, maintaining the number of active cases to two.
More than 5000 tests have been done in the past 24 hours, including 274 from Townsville


----------



## two sheds (Oct 14, 2020)

"The case was discovered after the virus was detected in Townsville's wastewater at the weekend."

that's seriously impressive


----------



## ice-is-forming (Oct 14, 2020)

two sheds said:


> "The case was discovered after the virus was detected in Townsville's wastewater at the weekend."
> 
> that's seriously impressive



We have a national scheme for constantly testing waste water to map drug use, they extended that scheme to detect covid now too.








						Wastewater monitoring gives insight into Australia’s drug consumption
					

Queensland has some of the highest fentanyl consumption and MDA excretion levels in the country, according to the latest report by The Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC).




					www.uq.edu.au
				




They had found it in Townsville waste water a week or so ago, but there are no discovered cases there yet. I don't think they're suggesting this one woman who traveled to Melbourne was the source of the Townsville find. I think they're optimistic that she caught it after arriving in Melbourne.


----------



## elbows (Oct 14, 2020)

BBC live updates page has the latest developments in France:



> From Saturday, curfews will be in place in the French capital, Paris, and eight other cities including Grenoble, Lille, Lyon and Toulouse, President Emmanuel Macron announces.
> 
> The restriction will be in place from 21:00 to 06:00 local time. And is to last for four weeks.
> 
> It comes as France re-imposes a state of health emergency to contain the spread of coronavirus



19:12 entry of https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-54531057


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 14, 2020)

The numbers on worldometers are horrifying


----------



## Teaboy (Oct 15, 2020)

The French curfew is an interesting one.  I'm struggling to see what it will achieve.  There must be something happening between those hours that they believe is causing the spread.  Are the French having loads of late night house parties?


----------



## ice-is-forming (Oct 15, 2020)

And so it goes in Queensland...

 A Victorian woman, who police found hiding behind the driver's seat of a Queensland-bound truck, has been ordered to leave the state and fined more than $4000.

Goondiwindi police found the 51-year-old hiding in the truck at the Texas border checkpoint as part of a major COVID-19 compliance operation by Queensland Police.

The 61-year-old male driver was also hit with a $4003 fine.


----------



## LDC (Oct 15, 2020)

Anyone that goes on about Sweden being a good example needs to get smacked around the head and then be made to read this.









						The Swedish COVID-19 Response Is a Disaster. It Shouldn’t Be A Model for the Rest of the World
					

Sweden's unique approach to the pandemic has drawn interest from other countries. But the data are clear: it's largely been a failure.




					time.com


----------



## elbows (Oct 15, 2020)

> *French police have raided the homes of senior government and health officials as part of an investigation into their handling of the coronavirus pandemic.*
> Health Minister Olivier Véran and the director of the national health agency, Jérôme Salomon, are among those whose properties were searched on Thursday.
> It comes after a court launched an inquiry earlier this year into the government's handling of the pandemic.





> Prime Minister Jean Castex is also under investigation, French media report, as is his predecessor Edouard Philippe and Mr Véran's predecessor Agnès Buzyn.











						Coronavirus: French police raid ministers' homes in pandemic inquiry
					

The health minister is among those whose homes and offices have been searched by police.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Oct 15, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Anyone that goes on about Sweden being a good example needs to get smacked around the head and then be made to read this.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


While there is a lot to criticise re Sweden's approach, it doesn't help when articles cherry-pick dates in order to make the point they want to make, which can be tantamount to lying. Sweden's mortality rate did come right down, just a little after the arbitrary cut-off point they choose of May 10. It's disingenuous of them to offer that as a reason to criticise Sweden.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 15, 2020)

Pretty upset about the news from Russia and Eastern Europe tbh. I've lived in Russia and Moldova a d spent a lot of time in other Eastern European countries. The healthcare systems in those places are gonna really struggle this winter


----------



## Sue (Oct 15, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> The French curfew is an interesting one.  I'm struggling to see what it will achieve.  There must be something happening between those hours that they believe is causing the spread.  *Are the French having loads of late night house parties?*


According to a friend who lives in Paris,  yep.


----------



## elbows (Oct 15, 2020)

Plus measures like that may work in part by introducing a feeling of complete abnormality to the situation of peoples lives, potentially leading to other behavioural changes.


----------



## Cloo (Oct 15, 2020)

Slovakia has just locked down quite hard - all restaurants shut for eat in dining according to my parents. They have had more cases this time round than the first wave, which they contained well - they've had 72 deaths so far this time, which is quite a lot for a small country, but at least they have responded with suitable firmness, unlike some countries I could mention.


----------



## Cloo (Oct 15, 2020)

Rules in Slovakia now: Masks outdoors, no mass events, special hours for seniors. Slovakia reintroduces strict measures


----------



## Supine (Oct 15, 2020)

This. Herd is not the way to go. 









						John Snow Memorandum
					

John Snow Memorandum



					www.johnsnowmemo.com


----------



## elbows (Oct 15, 2020)

Supine said:


> This. Herd is not the way to go.



One a related note, the Netherlands was one of the countries where their governments instincts and preference was to make stupid noises about herd immunity and avoid draconian measures. Like the UK they had to abandon that approach but still soiled the reopening phases with their agenda, attitude towards masks etc.

Now they are very much in the deep shit again.



No wonder they had to take action the other day. 









						Netherlands imposes ‘partial’ lockdown to contain spread of coronavirus
					

The Netherlands will return to a "partial lockdown" on Wednesday, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said, closing bars and restaurants as it battles to control the coronavirus in one of Europe's major…




					www.france24.com


----------



## elbows (Oct 15, 2020)

France already had a brief strike by test lab workers a little while back, and now:









						Health workers in France go on strike as coronavirus cases surge
					

Several hundred health workers took to the streets of Paris on Thursday afternoon to protest against conditions in French hospitals, as the number of new coronavirus cases surges across the country.




					www.france24.com
				






> Several hundred health workers took to the streets of Paris on Thursday afternoon to protest against conditions in French hospitals, as the number of new coronavirus cases surges across the country.
> 
> Doctors, nurses and other health workers – their faces covered with medical masks – waved banners and flags as they marched from the city’s Invalides monument to the Health Ministry in the 7th arrondissement (district).





> “Hospitals and other public institutions have been crumbling under exponential activity since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, without the necessary human and physical resources,” the General Confederation of Labour for Health and Social Work (CGT Santé et Action Sociale) union said.
> 
> In the last week alone, the number of hospitalisations for coronavirus increased in France by 6,529, according to the latest figures from the government agency France Public Health (Santé Publique France) – with 1,750 new patients admitted to the country’s ICUs.


----------



## editor (Oct 15, 2020)

From the Lancet: 


			https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR008mo82eh_MKVVk49V5_T3tBaTq69j7FW1abN81xp4rJeag_9Rx52WFlQ


----------



## Cid (Oct 15, 2020)

editor said:


> From the Lancet:
> 
> 
> https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32153-X/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR008mo82eh_MKVVk49V5_T3tBaTq69j7FW1abN81xp4rJeag_9Rx52WFlQ



This is now the John Snow (no not that one, or that one) Memorandum linked by Supine above.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 16, 2020)

At least 1.1 million people have now died from COVID-19


----------



## ice-is-forming (Oct 16, 2020)

And so Queensland has now eased restrictions even further after 36 days with zero community transmissions.

"We are doing this in a graduated way, testing throughout the incubation period, at least 14 days each time, to make sure that each easing hasn't had an impact on our ability to control the virus,"

From 4:00pm today, people can  gather in groups of 40 in homes or in the community, Year 12 students can dance at school formals, 40 people are able to dance at weddings and aged care residents are permitted to go on excursions.

Mr Miles said the state would wait before making any decision on easing border restrictions, with a decision due at the end of the month.

"We will continue to monitor the situation in NSW and Victoria before making any decision on reopening our border,"

There are now four active cases in the state after 4,738 tests overnight.There are two new cases, one was a miner who had returned from Africa and was in hotel quarantine in Cairns.

The other person returned from the United States and was in hotel quarantine on the Gold Coast.

"The two new cases in Queensland are both in hotel quarantine so are not a risk to the community,"

"As more Australians come home, we will see more Australians with the virus."


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 17, 2020)

The Czech Republic is in trouble, with the highest rate of new cases in Europe, 702 per 100k, they are building a new 'nightingale' hospital with 500 beds, and Germany has agreed to take some overflow intensive care patients. 



> At a time when all of Europe is facing an increase in the COVID-19 pandemic, the Czech Republic has been hit perhaps the hardest.
> 
> The European Center for Disease Control and Prevention says the Czech Republic leads the continent in the rate of new infections over the past two weeks, with nearly 702 cases per 100,000 people in the past two weeks, and nearly 50,000 of its total of 149,010 cases registered last week alone. The country also leads Europe in rate of deaths from the virus over the same period, 5.2 per 100,000 people.











						Czech Health Minister Warns of 'Huge' Spike in COVID-19 Patients
					

The Czech Republic’s health minister said Friday the country’s health system needs be ready for a "huge influx," of COVID-19 patients over the next 10 days to two weeks, as the nation faces Europe's fastest growing rate in new coronavirus cases.  Health Minister Roman Prymula told reporters at a...




					www.voanews.com
				




Holland is also running out of hospital beds, and are asking Germany to take patients too. 



> Hospitals in the Netherlands on Thursday said they would ask their German counterparts to take patients after the number of those hospitalized with the coronavirus doubled in the past week, to 1,526.
> 
> “We are about to ask for the transfer of patients to hospitals in Germany again,” the head of the Dutch hospital association LNAZ told reporters.
> 
> The Netherlands has entered another partial lockdown after becoming one of Europe's hotbeds for new infections, with numbers reaching record levels almost every day since mid-September and the total doubling within three weeks.











						Covid-19: Overloaded hospitals in Netherlands to transfer patients to Germany
					

Hospitals in the Netherlands on Thursday said they would ask their German counterparts to take patients after the number of those hospitalized with the coronavirus doubled in the past week, to 1,526.




					en.mercopress.com
				




What a grim winter it's going to be.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 17, 2020)

This is a good summary of how things are going across the channel.



> Intensive care units in Europe could reach maximum capacity in weeks amid surging numbers of coronavirus cases, the World Health Organisation has warned.
> 
> To try to curb the disease, France is bringing in a 9pm curfew in Paris and other big cities, the Czech Republic has shut schools and is building a field hospital, and Poland is limiting restaurant hours and closing gyms and schools.
> 
> In Belgium, new infections are doubling every week, and in Brussels, 20% of tests are coming back positive. Health authorities say the maximum capacity of 2,000 ICU beds could be full by mid-November. Five weeks after reopening, Belgian universities will switch mostly to online teaching from Monday.





> The French health ministry reported a further 25,086 daily cases on Friday, following a record figure of 30,621 on Thursday. It said 122 people had died. The country is deploying 12,000 extra police to enforce its new curfew, beginning on Saturday.
> 
> In Greece, the number of daily cases rose above 500 for the first time on Friday, reaching 508, with 227 in the Athens metropolitan area.





> In Italy, the president of the Campania region, Vincenzo De Luca, said he would impose a curfew on 31 October to stop the virus being transmitted at "stupid" Halloween parties.
> 
> Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has ruled out another national lockdown, but Lombardy's leader has said he will revise opening hours for bars and restaurants and close gaming centres and bingo halls.
> 
> In Barcelona, 1,000 hospitality workers, banging pots and pans, protested against a 15-day shutdown of bars and restaurants ordered by the Catalan regional government.



And, finally...



> In Malta, passengers were stopped from disembarking from the MSC Grandiosa cruise ship over a suspected case of coronavirus.



 









						Coronavirus: Intensive care units in Europe could reach capacity in weeks - WHO
					

Countries bring in a range of measures but it is hoped better treatments and more testing will help doctors fight the disease.




					news.sky.com


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 17, 2020)

Why tf are people still going on cruises?


----------



## Aladdin (Oct 17, 2020)

Idris2002 said:


> The boffins wanted the full level 5: the govt is gambling that level 3 will do the job.



They've fucked up..
NPHET insisting level 5 is now required or we are going to be in very serious trouble within 10 days. 
And still the government is humming and hawing and faffing about .
It's awful.



LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Anyone that goes on about Sweden being a good example needs to get smacked around the head and then be made to read this.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Our gov had some Swedish "expert" over to discuss how to deal with this pandemic. The guy was all on about keeping society open and herd immunity for the under 60s. They failed to check his background. He was effectively sacked in Sweden a few months ago after they realised the theory was fucking stupid and stsrted to try to control the virus. 

He spectacularly backtracked a while ago.









						Swedish expert backtracks on herd immunity for Ireland
					

Dr Johan Giesecke had advocated to an Oireachtas committee for a controlled spread




					www.google.com


----------



## Aladdin (Oct 17, 2020)

__





						Tomás Ryan: Are we ready to get serious about eliminating Covid-19?
					





					www.irishtimes.com
				




The ZeroCovid plan is in the news. People are very anxious here. Its clear that "living with covid" hasn't and wont work. Covid doesnt keep to its government designated spot.

Cant see the current Irish government listening to a zerocovid strategy though. 
Fucking twats


----------



## Idris2002 (Oct 17, 2020)




----------



## 2hats (Oct 17, 2020)

Coronavirus: Swiss yodellers blamed for worst Covid supercluster in Europe - NZ Herald
					

Masks weren't compulsory at a Swiss yodel 'musical' that sparked a surge in Covid cases.




					www.nzherald.co.nz


----------



## LDC (Oct 17, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Why tf are people still going on cruises?



On the good ship SS Death Wish?

I just got a text on a family Whatsapp from someone who's just back from a holiday in Turkey ffs! They're now WFH at their flat in London quarantining for 2 weeks. They better stick to it!


----------



## kabbes (Oct 17, 2020)

Something I was wondering: is there any sign that the death rate has dropped for the disease itself since the early days?  As a result of us finding better ways of treating it, I was thinking.


----------



## 2hats (Oct 17, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Something I was wondering: is there any sign that the death rate has dropped for the disease itself since the early days?  As a result of us finding better ways of treating it, I was thinking.


The CFR has certainly dropped (in the UK) but it's still too early (and/or paucity of data) to fully understand the path of the IFR globally.


----------



## two sheds (Oct 17, 2020)

Could that be from the increased testing? The 6% could have come from fewer tests giving a higher apparent fatality rate because cases were missed but fatalities weren't?


----------



## 2hats (Oct 17, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Could that be from the increased testing? The 6% could have come from fewer tests giving a higher apparent fatality rate because cases were missed but fatalities weren't?


Could be, but then there are likely lots of factors. The second link covers most of the salient points.


----------



## elbows (Oct 17, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Something I was wondering: is there any sign that the death rate has dropped for the disease itself since the early days?  As a result of us finding better ways of treating it, I was thinking.



Death rate of hospitalised patients dropped in the UK after the initial period, but a big chunk of this drop was likely to be temporary and caused by different demographics ending up in hospital during the summer lull and resurgence. eg younger people, with the trend expected to reverse as we see more and more infections in older people once more.

Here is an example I saw late last night. The headline grabs attention with its positive news, only for much of the article to undermine that claim.









						Covid patients 'less likely to die than in April'
					

Patients admitted to intensive care have a better chance of surviving now than they did in the first wave.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




eg:



> On average, 39% of patients admitted to critical care died between the start of the pandemic and the end of August and this appears to have fallen to just under 12%.
> But Dr Pittard cautioned this was most likely to be a product of the fact that not enough time has passed to work out the outcomes of patients admitted to hospital since the beginning of September.
> Many will remain in intensive care and until a patient is either discharged or dies, they do not appear in the data.



But there is more than one phenomenon at work. I would ignore the recent period improvements for the reasons given in that quote. But there was also a decline in the hospitalised death rate in the earlier period. I expect this to be down to a combination of factors. There are better protocols now for estimating which patients are likely to deteriorate. There are several treatments that will save some patients. There is better understanding of when ventilation is required and more people will get CPAP instead. However the death rate is also influenced by sheer numbers, by how much strain the hospital and admissions system is under. So however much the deaths were lowered by that factor once the first peak passed, is a gain that could be undone if things get that busy again.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 17, 2020)

worldometers said:
			
		

> *32,427 new cases* and *89 new deaths* in *France* [source]


Fuck!!!


----------



## two sheds (Oct 17, 2020)

If it's 1.5% fatality rate, then with 68 million population isn't that 1 million possible fatalities? 

Eta: And with 60,000 fatalities so far translates to less than 1% having caught it so far? Doesn't seem right.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 17, 2020)

I think the highest estimate I've seen is 1%-1.2% but it could go higher with a lack of medical care in time or if hospitals are overwhelmed.


----------



## LDC (Oct 17, 2020)

two sheds said:


> If it's 1.5% fatality rate, then with 68 million population isn't that 1 million possible fatalities?



Something like that, yes. Hence the panic when that modelling got published in Feb/Mar that suggested a possible 500,000 dead. It's a figure that needs airing more often in these discussion, especially about 'herd immunity' ideas.


----------



## two sheds (Oct 17, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Something like that, yes. Hence the panic when that modelling got published in Feb/Mar that suggested a possible 500,000 dead. It's a figure that needs airing more often in these discussion, especially about 'herd immunity' ideas.



My eta though: And with 60,000 fatalities translates to less than 1% having caught it so far? Doesn't seem right.

Oops less than 10%?


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 17, 2020)

The WHO are estimating 0.6% to 1% which is still catastrophic if millions of people get it. And the reduction in the IFR is dependent on people getting the right medical treatment in time


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 17, 2020)

two sheds said:


> My eta though: And with 60,000 fatalities translates to less than 1% having caught it so far? Doesn't seem right.


Don't think less than 1% have caught it? Didn't they say 7-10% have antibodies?


----------



## Supine (Oct 17, 2020)

two sheds said:


> My eta though: And with 60,000 fatalities translates to less than 1% having caught it so far? Doesn't seem right.



The 500k was unmitigated with safety  measures and based on the initial fatality rate. I think the last % already infected figure is around 8% with lots of regional variation.


----------



## two sheds (Oct 17, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Don't think less than 1% have caught it? Didn't they say 7-10% have antibodies?



Yes - slightly less than 10% I dropped a zero off


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 17, 2020)

If you just let it run it will probably go well over 500k not including all the people dying from other things because they cant get near a hospital.


----------



## Maltin (Oct 17, 2020)

two sheds said:


> My eta though: And with 60,000 fatalities translates to less than 1% having caught it so far? Doesn't seem right.
> 
> Oops less than 10%?


If 1.5% rate and 60,000 deaths, that equates to 4 million cases. I have seen estimates of about 7-8% infected. 4 million is around 6% of the population so reasonably in line.


----------



## LDC (Oct 17, 2020)

Maltin said:


> If 1.5% rate and 60,000 deaths, that equates to 4 million cases. I have seen estimates of about 7-8% infected. 4 million is around 6% of the population so reasonably in line.



Yeah, my GCSE maths level makes the projected figures of CFR/numbers infected/have antibodies/etc. all about ballpark correct. #science


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 17, 2020)

It will go way higher if it's untreated. And just because there is a 0.6% to 1.5% average IFR (for instance) doesn't mean any given person's chance of dying is only 1.5%.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Oct 18, 2020)

This is our track and trace  app in Australia


----------



## Maltin (Oct 18, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> This is our track and trace  app in Australia


Hadn’t realized how disproportionately impacted Victoria was. No wonder they have had stricter restrictions.


----------



## SpookyFrank (Oct 18, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Something I was wondering: is there any sign that the death rate has dropped for the disease itself since the early days?  As a result of us finding better ways of treating it, I was thinking.



I doubt the data is good enough to make that call. But there's no real reason to expect the death rate to have dropped.


----------



## kabbes (Oct 18, 2020)

SpookyFrank said:


> But there's no real reason to expect the death rate to have dropped.


What about all that stuff about putting people on their belly and using a CPAP machine instead of a ventilator?  In the first few months, I was always reading snippets of how one doctor or another had found certain techniques more successful.  Have we really learned nothing in six months?


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 18, 2020)

The death rate has dropped because  of those techniques but if it is untreated it's probably about the same I imagine


----------



## two sheds (Oct 18, 2020)

That's a good point


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 18, 2020)

Dexamethasone is also proven to reduce death rates iirc


----------



## ice-is-forming (Oct 18, 2020)

Maltin said:


> Hadn’t realized how disproportionately impacted Victoria was. No wonder they have had stricter restrictions.



Yes, they seem to have it under control now, and  had to go into a 100 day circuit breaker for that to happen. I think some of their restrictions are easing at midnight today.

qld, northern territory and western Australia have had their boarders closed for months now, this has pissed off the economists, but luckily our labour premiere has stood her ground. And weirdly enough Qld is booming now...


----------



## editor (Oct 18, 2020)

LOVE this woman


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 18, 2020)

Nearly Half the People Who Have Died of COVID-19 in India Are Younger Than 60 – The Wire Science
					






					science.thewire.in
				




Interesting.


----------



## bimble (Oct 18, 2020)

Bloody hell just reading about what’s going on in Czech Republic, which was looking so good back in the spring.
Today police shooting water canon at anti lockdown protestors in the middle of Prague and look at this. Worst rate in Europe right now by far. Terrifying.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 18, 2020)

Some pretty worrying signs in Morocco and Tunisia.


----------



## Supine (Oct 18, 2020)

The FT are continuing with their excellent coverage of Covid. 



			https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data


----------



## Mation (Oct 19, 2020)

Supine said:


> The FT are continuing with their excellent coverage of Covid.
> 
> 
> 
> https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-global-data


Why doesn't it mention Africa?


----------



## Cid (Oct 19, 2020)

Mation said:


> Why doesn't it mention Africa?



They've not published that bit yet...



> *October 23* What Africa taught us about coronavirus, and other lessons the world has learned


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 19, 2020)

337 deaths in Iran


----------



## editor (Oct 19, 2020)

Sad, but I hope he didn't influence anyone with his stupidity 



			Fitness influencer Dmitriy Stuzhuk dies of coronavirus after previously saying it didn’t exist


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 19, 2020)

Covid, U.S. sanctions force Iranians to confront a ‘dark’ future
					

Iranians are suffering from interlinking maladies: the worst coronavirus outbreak in the Middle East, intensifying U.S. sanctions and a collapsing economy.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## Aladdin (Oct 20, 2020)

Level 5 lockdown for 6 weeks starting tomorrow night in Ireland.





						Ireland placed on Level 5 of the Plan for Living with COVID-19
					

Level 5 restrictions will remain in place for a period of 6 weeks.




					www.gov.ie


----------



## crossthebreeze (Oct 20, 2020)

bimble said:


> Bloody hell just reading about what’s going on in Czech Republic, which was looking so good back in the spring.
> Today police shooting water canon at anti lockdown protestors in the middle of Prague and look at this. Worst rate in Europe right now by far. Terrifying.
> View attachment 234989


Yes my parents live there (both over 70 with health probs), and their GP got in touch with them last week and told them to shield in a much stricter way than they were told to in March, and they said now there are cases in the small town they live in, which there hasn't been before.


----------



## bimble (Oct 20, 2020)

i'm sorry crossthebreeze that must be really worrying for you and them. I was in Czech early last month, to see my parents (they don't live there were just visiting) and from one day to the next the government brought mandatory mask wearing back in (for all indoor places) but there was no sense of the impending disaster that's going on now. Would really like to understand how this happened, how come they were doing so well the first time round and then find themselves with the worst rate in europe.
From my short time there it looked like people were taking it more seriously than they are here - noticed for instance teenagers sat alone on near-empty trains wearing their masks properly, things like that.


----------



## 2hats (Oct 20, 2020)

Human challenge trials, starting in January, to determine minimum infectious dose of the virus and infection dynamics.








						UK researchers to explore human challenge studies for COVID-19 | Imperial News | Imperial College London
					

Researchers are set to explore a human challenge study with the virus that causes COVID-19, the first such study anywhere in the world.




					www.imperial.ac.uk


----------



## Supine (Oct 20, 2020)

2hats said:


> Human challenge trials, starting in January, to determine minimum infectious dose of the virus and infection dynamics.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



You know the shit has hit the fan when this kind of study is done. The ethics bar to allow it is much lower than normal. 

Respect to the trial participants


----------



## 2hats (Oct 20, 2020)

€88 tests to be offered to travellers flying from Heathrow to Italy (and Hong Kong)...








						Rapid one-hour Covid tests begin at Heathrow airport
					

Coronavirus tests that cost £80 offered to travellers to Hong Kong




					www.theguardian.com
				



...though if you skip that you can get a rapid test on arrival in Italy for €30.


----------



## Teaboy (Oct 20, 2020)

2hats said:


> €88 tests to be offered to travellers flying from Heathrow to Italy (and Hong Kong)...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Its an interesting development and seems to be the way countries are going.  If you want to avoid a 2 week quarantine you're going to need a very recent clear test. Interesting that the test is a saliva test and appears to be slightly less accurate than the nose and throat swab.  Given the questions I have with the accuracy of the traditional test this does not inspire confidence.

Still, this is likely to be a template of getting things back to a level of normality.  Its not perfect but it'll be good enough which is probably how the first few vaccines will be seen.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Oct 20, 2020)

Hong Kong absolutely has a two week Q and is closed to non-residents though.


----------



## Teaboy (Oct 20, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> Hong Kong absolutely has a two week Q and is closed to non-residents though.



I wonder why they chose the HK flight then?


----------



## 2hats (Oct 20, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> I wonder why they chose the HK flight then?


The tests are only available for flights to jurisdictions where the LHR test is approved by the destination health authorities.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 21, 2020)

Interesting article here covering the second wave's spread across Europe, including a list of different restrictions that various countries have introduced.



> For months, scientists and global health experts warned that European governments must build up coronavirus testing and tracing capacity, put in place strict quarantine and isolation measures, ready hospitals for Covid-19 patients, protect the elderly and vulnerable, and, especially, get people to wear masks. Taking these steps, said Anthony Costello, a professor of global health at University College London, avoids “the bluntest weapon to control the epidemic”: the lockdown.
> 
> Yet, with few exceptions, leaders did not adequately prepare. Instead, there was complacency and denial. When social distancing measures slowed coronavirus spread over the summer, politicians lifted restrictions quickly in an effort to restart economies. They then failed to heed the warnings of scientists and doctors again — that small upticks in infections would eventually culminate in an exponential growth in cases, followed by increases in hospitalizations and deaths. (A grim, similar pattern developed in the US.)











						European countries with spiraling Covid-19 outbreaks are shutting back down
					

Europe’s new coronavirus wave may be worse than the first.




					www.vox.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 21, 2020)

Sky News has been running a report on how bad things are in Belgium, 3 minute video in link below.



> An intensive care specialist in Belgium's worst-hit COVID-19 region has told Sky News he fears the moment when the hospital is full and he has to choose who will live and who will die.
> 
> Dr Laurent Jadot says the situation has become so bad that many people are now calling it "the new Lombardy", in reference to the part of Italy which suffered the most during the first wave of the pandemic crisis.
> 
> He works at CHC Montlegia, which has one of the largest intensive care units in the city of Liege at the heart of the southern region of Wallonia - where hospitals are struggling to cope with the number of coronavirus patients.











						Coronavirus: Hospitals face being overrun by COVID-19 in 'the new Lombardy'
					

The city of Liege is facing a public health crisis as one in four tests come back positive for the coronavirus.




					news.sky.com


----------



## elbows (Oct 21, 2020)

Czech Republic going back into lockdown.









						Breaking: New Czech anti-COVID-19 lockdown measures to close shops and services as of Thursday, October 22
					

Following a record rise in new COVID-19 cases, Czech Health Minister Roman Prymula announced the new lockdown restrictions at a press conference today



					www.expats.cz


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 21, 2020)

I'm not sure anyone is reading the thread I did on Russia but there's quite upsetting news out of there, 317 people dead which is the highest number ever, the authorities seem to be trying parts of the Barrington thingy until the vaccines are rolled out in a few months time


----------



## krtek a houby (Oct 22, 2020)

Infections spreading in new Irish communities, leading to (of course) a backlash against them 

_With high rental prices pushing foreign students from Latin America, Asia and Europe into overcrowded housing, where they often share with up to a dozen other people, it’s not surprising the virus has spread among Brazilians. The Brazilian Left Front campaign group warned earlier this year that Brazilian students in Irish cities were “in a more vulnerable health position” as many have survived during the pandemic by working informally through food delivery. 

It is understood that large numbers of Nigerians work as home carers, leaving them at greater risk of contracting the virus, while many Moldovans work in meat plants where a number of coronavirus clusters have occurred.

While the number of Filipinos who have tested positive for the virus appears quite low down on the HPSC list, the Filipino Consul has warned that its community is being “disproportionately affected” by the virus given the large numbers working in hospitals and as carers. About 16,000 Filipinos live in Ireland with the majority working in healthcare and hospitality.

Teresa Buczkowska, from the Immigrant Council of Ireland, said migrants were continuing to provide many essential services in this country and “pay the price of being at the front line”.

“Migrants are producing our food and are delivering it to our doorsteps. They are caring for our elders, keeping our hospitals clean and are providing essential medical care”. Migrants are also more likely to live in overcrowded conditions where they cannot practise social distancing or self-isolation, said Ms Buczkowska. She criticised the “backlash against migrant communities” during the coronavirus crisis, saying Irish lives would have been “much more affected by the pandemic if not for the migrants who stepped up”._


Nearly 400 Brazilians have tested positive for Covid-19 in Ireland, data shows


----------



## Cloo (Oct 22, 2020)

My mum has told me that Eastern Slovakia where she is doesn't have many cases, other than one big cluster in one place - a Roma village (that's basically more like a shantytown) a few km away. Very worrying to think how badly COVID will impact on Roma communities there and in other parts of Eastern Eurpope - overcrowded, multigenerational households; people who will have low-paid manual type jobs they have to go out and do; and massive amounts of racism that mean many of those in power won't care about Roma deaths or wellbeing.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 22, 2020)

41 thousand new cases in France


----------



## Supine (Oct 22, 2020)

There are not enough face palms for this









						To avoid quarantining students, a school district tries moving them around every 15 minutes. (Published 2020)
					






					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Supine (Oct 22, 2020)

Rather a fundamental change from the CDC today. 

Old rule was less than 2m for 15 minutes

New guidance is less than 2m for 15 minutes accumulated over a 24 hr period

This means 15 x 1min exposures is deemed just as risky each day. Makes logical sense to me.


----------



## two sheds (Oct 22, 2020)

Supine said:


> There are not enough face palms for this
> 
> 
> 
> ...



When I was about 6 I remember jumping around when it was raining to avoid the drops and keep dry


----------



## Supine (Oct 22, 2020)

two sheds said:


> When I was about 6 I remember jumping around when it was raining to avoid the drops and keep dry



I used the running fast technique


----------



## William of Walworth (Oct 22, 2020)

Supine said:


> I used the running fast technique



.... away from the rain *AND* the bullies


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Oct 23, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> 41 thousand new cases in France


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 23, 2020)

Nine weeks of bloodshed: how brutal policing of Kenya's Covid curfew left 15 dead
					

Violent enforcement of lockdown has led to legal action aiming to force police reform and accountability




					www.theguardian.com
				




Not directly a result of the virus but an example of police in Kenya using lockdown measures to kill with impunity


----------



## Johnny Doe (Oct 23, 2020)

So, considering whether to take the family to Tenerife for Xmas, if the 'non-essential travel' advice is lifted and normal travel insurance is therefore available. Can anyone who has spent more time looking at this comment on their much lower cases per million people? Less testing, more testing? Is the relevant metric actually active cases as a % of the population?





Thanks in advance for any help!


----------



## teuchter (Oct 23, 2020)

Planning to travel abroad this Christmas seems like madness to me. We don't know what will be happening here (but probably higher rate of infection than now) and we don't know what will be happening there.

And a load of people flying around the place between countries hardly seems helpful to anyone anywhere.


----------



## Johnny Doe (Oct 23, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Planning to travel abroad this Christmas seems like madness to me. We don't know what will be happening here (but probably higher rate of infection than now) and we don't know what will be happening there.
> 
> And a load of people flying around the place between countries hardly seems helpful to anyone anywhere.



I do get that, but having spent half the year cooped up with an autistic 7 year old and and a very lively 5 year-old, another 2 weeks indoors, shit weather so you can't go to the park, loads of other activities for them closed,  it starts to look like a risk worth assessing. They've broken 2 TVs and had 3 doors off hinges over the locked down period.

They've not seen my parents other than through a closed window since March and probably still won't be able to when we'd return.

Everyone's situation is different, I guess.


----------



## Supine (Oct 23, 2020)

I'm with Mr T on this one. I ain't getting on no plane.

Booking an abroad is basically risky. You just have to accept it may or may not happen.


----------



## Johnny Doe (Oct 23, 2020)

Supine said:


> I'm with Mr T on this one. I ain't getting on no plane.
> 
> Booking an abroad is basically risky. You just have to accept it may or may not happen.



Understand your position of course, mine is slightly different for the reasons I've given. 

I'd be booking with the same package operator who cancelled and refunded 3 trips this year. Though if we do it, we'd leave it late to book, as the numbers and the Government advice and resultant availability of insurance may change.


----------



## kabbes (Oct 23, 2020)

It kind of sounds like you’ve already made your mind up?


----------



## LDC (Oct 23, 2020)

Harry Smiles said:


> I do get that, but having spent half the year cooped up with an autistic 7 year old and and a very lively 5 year-old, another 2 weeks indoors, shit weather so you can't go to the park, loads of other activities for them closed,  it starts to look like a risk worth assessing. They've broken 2 TVs and had 3 doors off hinges over the locked down period.
> 
> They've not seen my parents other than through a closed window since March and probably still won't be able to when we'd return.
> 
> Everyone's situation is different, I guess.



I wouldn't go, but bloody hell, sounds like you all need a holiday! Hope you have a lovely break if you do go.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 23, 2020)

I hope you can get to go away. I wouldn't judge anyone for wanting to get away!


----------



## Johnny Doe (Oct 23, 2020)

kabbes said:


> It kind of sounds like you’ve already made your mind up?



I mind my mind up what I'd like, but not that we'll do it.

E2A: the decision point will be when we'd book, probably early December, so there is every chance further changes in Government policy makes the decision for us, but then


----------



## kabbes (Oct 23, 2020)

In that case, it will probably help if you can think now, before you are in the decision pressure cooker, what would be the trigger points for deciding between staying and going.  Then you can just apply your predetermined metrics when the time comes without having to rely on your unreliable limbic system.


----------



## two sheds (Oct 23, 2020)

and look for possible alternatives if it doesn't work out?


----------



## scifisam (Oct 23, 2020)

Harry Smiles said:


> I do get that, but having spent half the year cooped up with an autistic 7 year old and and a very lively 5 year-old, another 2 weeks indoors, shit weather so you can't go to the park, loads of other activities for them closed,  it starts to look like a risk worth assessing. They've broken 2 TVs and had 3 doors off hinges over the locked down period.
> 
> They've not seen my parents other than through a closed window since March and probably still won't be able to when we'd return.
> 
> Everyone's situation is different, I guess.



I understand, but the travel insurance thing is a worry. You have to declare every medical condition anyway, including autism, and they will always try to find a way out of it if something does happen. 

Tenerife in itself might be pretty safe. But it'd be better to stay within the UK and just do something different. Somewhere snowy, maybe, for a white Christmas.


----------



## William of Walworth (Oct 23, 2020)

scifisam said:


> I understand, but the travel insurance thing is a worry. You have to declare every medical condition anyway, including autism, and they will always try to find a way out of it if something does happen.
> 
> Tenerife in itself might be pretty safe. But it'd be better to stay within the UK and just do something different. *Somewhere snowy, maybe, for a white Christmas.*



Have my _severe_ doubts about *any* UK-based white Xmas myself -- generally, that would be as rare as rocking horse shit ....


----------



## scifisam (Oct 24, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> Have my _severe_ doubts about *any* UK-based white Xmas myself -- generally, that would be as rare as rocking horse shit ....



Quite a lot of places in Scotland have snow around Christmas if not on Christmas Day. And even if you don't get snow, it can be snowy and Christmassy.


----------



## William of Walworth (Oct 24, 2020)

scifisam said:


> Quite a lot of places in Scotland have snow around Christmas if not on Christmas Day. And even if you don't get snow, it can be snowy and Christmassy.



Good luck with that, even in Scotland!  

And, here in Swansea, we've had *NO* snow beyond *very* light (and rare!) dustings, since January 2010


----------



## MrSki (Oct 24, 2020)

If anyone is unsure who Ben Bradley is, here is KGM giving him an excellent introduction.


----------



## pesh (Oct 24, 2020)

I've juse seen him described as a poundshop Mark Francois


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 24, 2020)

Belgium cancels non-urgent surgery as full Covid lockdown looms
					

Country moves closer to national shutdown as PM vows to protect health system




					www.theguardian.com
				




The problem is that non-urgent surgery can soon become urgent


----------



## The39thStep (Oct 24, 2020)

Just to be on the safe side of enforcement if the no alcohol past 8’o click without food the local bar I’m in has just handed me this


----------



## William of Walworth (Oct 24, 2020)

Just out of curiosity The39thStep , what's in that beer bottle?


----------



## The39thStep (Oct 24, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> Just out of curiosity The39thStep , what's in that beer bottle?


Sagres. Portuguese beer market is hugely dominated by Sagres and Superbock, there’s a third main brand called Crystal which some bars stick some don’t. Main trade is bottled here it’s 90 cents to one euro 20 cents so about 85p to just over a quid in the bars . Tourist areas more expensive . All three companies do a black beer which is like a watery stout . All around 5%. 
There’s a very small micro brewery industry mainly in Lisbon and Porto and I’m fortunate that there is one about twelve miles away . The micro breweries or cerveza artisanal mainly do IPA’s, German or Czech style largers, wheat beers , stouts and American style amber ales. They all tend to be quite strong 5.5- 8 % and normally come with food tasting notes .


----------



## William of Walworth (Oct 24, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> Sagres. Portuguese beer market is hugely dominated by Sagres and Superbock, there’s a third main brand called Crystal which some bars stick some don’t. Main trade is bottled here it’s 90 cents to one euro 20 cents so about 85p to just over a quid in the bars . Tourist areas more expensive . All three companies do a black beer which is like a watery stout . All around 5%.
> There’s a very small micro brewery industry mainly in Lisbon and Porto and I’m fortunate that there is one about twelve miles away . The micro breweries or cerveza artisanal mainly do IPA’s, German or Czech style largers, wheat beers , stouts and American style amber ales. They all tend to be quite strong 5.5- 8 % and normally come with food tasting notes .




We've been wanting to get ourselves a Portugal break for ages ....., and with that information -- you never know! -- that's more likely to happen , when Normal Times return


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 25, 2020)

Some scary stuff coming out from across the channel. 



> The five countries with the highest rate of infection worldwide are all in Europe (Czech Republic, Belgium, the Netherlands, France and Switzerland), according to CNN analysis of Johns Hopkins University data.  The Czech Republic is currently the hardest-hit country in Europe, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)





> In Belgium, which holds the second-highest infection rate in Europe, hospital occupancy reached nearly 90% this week.
> 
> *In some infirmaries, doctors and nurses who have tested positive but don't have symptoms are reportedly being asked to keep working. *
> 
> ...



If the BIB is true, it doesn't sound like a very good idea to me.   









						Covid-19 Spike In Europe Leads To Resurrecting Restrictions
					

"We have runaway numbers in terms of contamination, and a major issue is the risk of the collapse of the hospital system of our country."




					www.forbes.com


----------



## two sheds (Oct 25, 2020)

And NHS hospital beds have been at around 90% occupancy for some time haven't they? No slack in the system because of the starving of funds.


----------



## miss direct (Oct 25, 2020)

Went for a walk last night through a few suburbs of Sheffield between 9-10pm. Almost every pub is closed, with a strange combination of Halloween decorations and closed signs on the door. Now that is spooky - an abandoned, dark pub. Barely any cars out. One couple in a restaurant. Even the takeaways were empty. I started to feel anxious that the police would stop me and ask where I was going - did they do that in the Spring?

oops, wrong thread


----------



## teqniq (Oct 25, 2020)

Quelle surprise. And why are schools remaining open, particularly here in the UK? Because the proles must work, it's the economy, stupid.









						Largest COVID-19 contact tracing study to date finds children key to spread, evidence of superspreaders
					

Researchers from the Princeton Environmental Institute find the continued spread of novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is driven by only a small percentage of those who become infected.




					www.princeton.edu


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 25, 2020)

Looks like Spain is going into some sort of national lockdown.



> Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has called a cabinet meeting to prepare a new state of emergency to stem surging coronavirus infections.
> 
> The move could impose curfews and other restrictions across the country.
> 
> ...











						PM works on new state of emergency to curb coronavirus outbreak in Spain
					

Spain’s government has already declared two state of emergencies during the pandemic.




					www.alloaadvertiser.com


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 25, 2020)

52k new infections in France


----------



## Mation (Oct 25, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> 52k new infections in France


jesus fucking christ


----------



## elbows (Oct 25, 2020)

I wonder how many daily infections they think they really have there. Given that when the UK reached around 25k daily cases testing positive, estimates for how many daily infections there really are is around 53k-90k.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 25, 2020)

They're doing the rapid tests aren't they? So I guess results come back quicker. They can't be capturing all of them tho.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 25, 2020)

Coronavirus : des "arrivées soudaines" de malades dans des hôpitaux d'Île-de-France
					

"Il y a une très forte accélération, à la fois des contaminations et des entrées en réanimation" en Île-de-France, a indiqué le directeur de l'Agence régionale de Santé Aurélien Rousseau, dimanche midi sur Europe 1. D'après lui, plusieurs hôpitaux de la région ont vu arriver des vagues de...




					www.europe1.fr


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 25, 2020)

elbows said:


> I wonder how many daily infections they think they really have there. Given that when the UK reached around 25k daily cases testing positive, estimates for how many daily infections there really are is around 53k-90k.


I wonder why its so bad there


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Oct 25, 2020)

France currently at around 12000 hospital admissions a week, so nearly double the UK's current rate. Daily deaths so far remain relatively low, given that. That may be corrected later on, but it implies a lot of hospital survival there atm.

Czechia has not only lots of infections but also many deaths. It may be that the countries that mostly avoided the first wave are the most vulnerable to high deaths on the second.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 25, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I wonder why its so bad there


I could relate what my mum tells me when I phone her, not very good tbh, but only anecdotal.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 25, 2020)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> I could relate what my mum tells me when I phone her, not very good tbh, but only anecdotal.


Yeah please do. If you feel comfortable that is.


----------



## William of Walworth (Oct 25, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Coronavirus : des "arrivées soudaines" de malades dans des hôpitaux d'Île-de-France
> 
> 
> "Il y a une très forte accélération, à la fois des contaminations et des entrées en réanimation" en Île-de-France, a indiqué le directeur de l'Agence régionale de Santé Aurélien Rousseau, dimanche midi sur Europe 1. D'après lui, plusieurs hôpitaux de la région ont vu arriver des vagues de...
> ...



C'est tres mal, mon ami?  

Moi parlez Anglais seulement


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 25, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Yeah please do. If you feel comfortable that is.


nothing personal will come through so hey:


my mum thinks it should have been let to run rampant, she is quite happy (if not quite ready) to die having lived to 80 years of age and thinks the herd immunity should have been let to run its course (I make sure I don't shout at her but we've a lifelong history of disagreeing on a lot of stuff already so well practiced)
She spent most of the french lockdown playing cat and mouse with the police so she could keep playing bridge with her friends (all retired) at their houses. This is now on hold as 4 of their group have caught it (one being in hospital)...
She reckons the current curfew is stupid as people will just arrive at 5 to 9 to the party house and leave at 5 past 6. I haven't checked but am guessing this breaks other rules over there
She is mostly worried on the financial repercussion this has/will have on her family (my nieces should be starting internship/apprenticeship type of stuff now but none of that is available, my sister boiyfriend lost his job and can't find a new one, her ex can't find a job)
I doubt my nieces are following any of the rules despite wanting to protect their grandmother when it all kicked off but going over to her place to get away from paris then getting bored of provincial life so heading back to it...
So yeah, just anecdotal stuff, not sure how widespread this is but from my facebook feed a few fench people at least buy into this particular view or associated; that is before looking at the ones sharing conspiraloon type of stuff.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 25, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> C'est tres mal, mon ami?
> 
> Moi parlez Anglais seulement


around 35 admission a day into ICU/HDU until wednesday, gone up to about 90 a day on thursday, friday saturday...


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 25, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> C'est tres mal, mon ami?
> 
> Moi parlez Anglais seulement


Yeah speak French but you can use Google translate on that article if you are looking on a phone.


----------



## William of Walworth (Oct 25, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Yeah speak French but you can use Google translate on that article if you are looking on a phone.



No can do! My phone is dimmer than dim and very primitive 

Brief summary, when you have a moment please though? Cheers


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 25, 2020)

William of Walworth said:


> No can do! My phone is dimmer than dim and very primitive
> 
> Brief summary, when you have a moment please though? Cheers



67% of ICU beds occupied with covid patients in Paris, admissions for covid there have gone up from 30 to 90 a day


----------



## two sheds (Oct 25, 2020)

"There is a very strong acceleration, at the same time of contaminations and entries in intensive care" in Île-de-France, indicated the director of the Regional Health Agency Aurélien Rousseau, Sunday noon on Europe 1. According to him, several hospitals in the region have seen waves of coronavirus patients arrive in the last hours.

If that helps


----------



## William of Walworth (Oct 25, 2020)

Cheers frogwoman and two sheds  -- thanks for the help


----------



## elbows (Oct 25, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I wonder why its so bad there



I'm not really sure what there is to wonder about on that subject. France is just going the same way that so many other countries in Europe. Its bad in Spain, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK etc etc. Just slightly different timings and variations in how many regions of a particular country are affected, but mostly the same patterns really.


----------



## elbows (Oct 25, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> France currently at around 12000 hospital admissions a week, so nearly double the UK's current rate. Daily deaths so far remain relatively low, given that. That may be corrected later on, but it implies a lot of hospital survival there atm.
> 
> Czechia has not only lots of infections but also many deaths. It may be that the countries that mostly avoided the first wave are the most vulnerable to high deaths on the second.



Keep in mind that the data going back to the first wave has always shown some big differences in hospital numbers coming out of France compared to the UK's numbers. Theirs have always been a lot higher, implying different measurements and/or different admissions and treatment policy. Including very big differences in the minimum level reached before the resurgence.

I have resurrected some old data and brought it up to date to illustrate that point. Number of people in hospital.


----------



## elbows (Oct 25, 2020)

I need to add Italy to that graph when I get a chance as well since things are bad there too.

10h ago 13:40



> Giuseppe Conte’s government has ordered the closure of gyms and swimming pools, and while bars and restaurants can offer takeaway services they must stop in-house dining from 6pm. Cinemas and theatres will also close but museums will stay open.
> 
> There will be no ban on inter-regional travel, although people have been strongly advised not to leave their homes unless for work, health or education purposes. Up to 75% of high school teaching should be done online to limit the number of pupils in schools, according to the new decree.
> 
> “The latest epidemiological data cannot leave us indifferent,” Conte said. “The analysis indicates a rapid growth, with the stress on the national health system at worrying levels.”


----------



## elbows (Oct 25, 2020)

I found a chance to do it. Except I think that to make them equivalent I probably need to add the ICU numbers to the Italian figures to get the proper number of people in hospital there, but even without that the graph should illustrate the point.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 26, 2020)

Allez les bleus!


----------



## elbows (Oct 26, 2020)

Spains data usually doesnt fill me with much confidence but I've done what I can to add the recent form of it to the graph.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Oct 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> Spains data usually doesnt fill me with much confidence but I've done what I can to add the recent form of it to the graph.
> 
> View attachment 235935


That's useful, ta. I know Wales counts differently from England, hence Wales always looks worse by comparison because it counts suspected as well as confirmed cases. Perhaps France does the same.

tbh the biggest puzzle to me there isn't so much the different peaks, it's that France doesn't go anywhere near as low as either UK or Italy. That certainly suggests quite a different system.


----------



## elbows (Oct 26, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> That's useful, ta. I know Wales counts differently from England, hence Wales always looks worse by comparison because it counts suspected as well as confirmed cases. Perhaps France does the same.
> 
> tbh the biggest puzzle to me there isn't so much the different peaks, it's that France doesn't go anywhere near as low as either UK or Italy. That certainly suggests quite a different system.



Yeah I dont have an answer, except that their hospitalisation rates (admissions) during the trough dont seem hugely different to ours, and I machine translated the following from the data source I use for France:

Details:
1) Hospital data (source SI-VIC) are presented by date of declaration in Géodes.
2) Only people hospitalized or deceased in France are represented in Géodes. People hospitalized abroad are not represented in Géodes, although they are included in the Public Health France dashboard.
3) Until 03/31, instructions to healthcare facilities to create a patient record in SI-VIC were a biologically confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19.
Since 31/03, health establishments must systematically enter in SI-VIC hospitalized patients with a biologically confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 OR a chest CT suggestive of a COVID-19 diagnosis. However, an institution can create a patient record based on strong clinical suspicion or suggestive imagery, and then delete the record later if the test is negative.

Limits:
1) Certain patients, present in the hospital database at a given time, can therefore be removed from the database by health establishments when the patient's laboratory result is negative for Covid-19.
2) The case reporting system is not exhaustive and the number of reporting establishments varies over time.


----------



## elbows (Oct 26, 2020)

I suppose another possibility is that France doesnt hae the same criteria for removing people from the hospital numbers that we do. And whether our methodology for that is fair is something I cannot completely determine due to lack of detail, although I know of a place or two to look for detail on how ENgland does this and will post again on the subject if I find something of use.

To give a simple example, the numbers for hospital patients in Scotland were chnged a while back and the UK dashboard says the following about that change to the Scottish numbers:



> On 11 September 2020 the data were updated to exclude people (in larger NHS Boards) who had previously tested positive for COVID-19 but remain in hospital for another reason.


----------



## spring-peeper (Oct 26, 2020)

El Paso sees 200 percent rise in Covid-19 hospitalizations; people urged to stay home 2 weeks
					

"If we continue on this trend, we risk detrimental effects to our entire health care system," a public health official said.




					www.nbcnews.com


----------



## retribution (Oct 26, 2020)

A time for celebration in Melbourne as our lockdown is set to end at midnight on Tuesday after zero new cases confirmed today. We've been in a pretty strict lockdown for just over three months. Can't wait to get out of the house without needing a reason, for as long as we like. There will of course still be lots of restrictions on indoor gatherings, particularly home gatherings, and rules around hospitality etc. but it's a good feeling! 
Not going to lie, it was a pretty grim winter and now it's difficult looking at what's happening in the northern hemisphere, but I'm going to focus on the positives tonight


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 26, 2020)

retribution said:


> A time for celebration in Melbourne as our lockdown is set to end at midnight on Tuesday after zero new cases confirmed today. We've been in a pretty strict lockdown for just over three months. Can't wait to get out of the house without needing a reason, for as long as we like. There will of course still be lots of restrictions on indoor gatherings, particularly home gatherings, and rules around hospitality etc. but it's a good feeling!
> Not going to lie, it was a pretty grim winter and now it's difficult looking at what's happening in the northern hemisphere, but I'm going to focus on the positives tonight


at least they did the right move whereas our clown Bojo is once again dilly dallying like the fuckwit he is.


----------



## two sheds (Oct 26, 2020)

Yep true - that's some achievement given the figures they had


----------



## miss direct (Oct 26, 2020)

Friends back in Istanbul seem to be living life virtually normally - crowded bars, parties, etc. Yes, there's mandatory mask wearing, but they're not worn in bars/restaurants, obviously. Government still suppressing the figures there (the number of daily deaths never seems to change, which is just...bizarre). The only thing helping is a young population, but I can't comprehend how they went from full on curfew, can't leave the house, to virtual normality, albeit with a mask on.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Oct 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> I suppose another possibility is that France doesnt hae the same criteria for removing people from the hospital numbers that we do. And whether our methodology for that is fair is something I cannot completely determine due to lack of detail, although I know of a place or two to look for detail on how ENgland does this and will post again on the subject if I find something of use.
> 
> To give a simple example, the numbers for hospital patients in Scotland were chnged a while back and the UK dashboard says the following about that change to the Scottish numbers:


Comparing across countries is fraught, of course, so perhaps a better method is to compare each country's level as a proportion of its own peak. Eg the UK is currently at around 40% of its peak, Spain at 50%, etc.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Oct 26, 2020)

retribution said:


> A time for celebration in Melbourne as our lockdown is set to end at midnight on Tuesday after zero new cases confirmed today. We've been in a pretty strict lockdown for just over three months. Can't wait to get out of the house without needing a reason, for as long as we like. There will of course still be lots of restrictions on indoor gatherings, particularly home gatherings, and rules around hospitality etc. but it's a good feeling!
> Not going to lie, it was a pretty grim winter and now it's difficult looking at what's happening in the northern hemisphere, but I'm going to focus on the positives tonight



So happy for you guys, such good work!


----------



## elbows (Oct 26, 2020)

Back when there used to be noises about how Germany controlled the virus in the first wave using contact tracing, I warned that even in Germany it had its limits, and I had seen at least one report that Germany had to abandon the contact tracing approach during the busiest phase of first wave infections. I never got confirmation of that though, so I wasnt too sure of those facts.

Anyway this time around I jsut saw something similar:



> Meanwhile authorities in Berlin, which already for several weeks has been considered one of the nation’s coronavirus hotspots, have said they will veer away from tracking and tracing those infected with coronavirus due to a lack of resources, and will rely instead on infected persons taking responsibility for themselves and going into isolation at home as well as taking the initiative in contacting people with whom they have been in touch.



39m ago 11:56


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 26, 2020)

French equivalent of SAGE: 
second wave is going to be worse than the first, current estimate 100 000 infections a day (with 50 000 positive tests results) 
recommends a longer much wider curfew for a fortnight and if n umbers are not headed in the right direction then another lockdown 
or have an immediate lockdown not as strict as the one earlier this year followed by an easing period with curfew.
"The quicker we act the more effective it will be" "This wave in spreading across Europe, it will last weeks or up to two months"
Le Monde article in French with a lot more quotes for the french readers amongst you.


----------



## elbows (Oct 26, 2020)

Belgiums hospital data looks especially bad.





__





						Epistat – COVID-19 Belgian Dashboard
					

COVID-19 Belgian Dashboard. Sciensano official numbers, graphs and statistics for Cases, Deaths, Hospital admissions and Tests.




					epistat.wiv-isp.be


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 26, 2020)

Yep, and there too the politicians are not doing the needed lockdown because: the economy.
Same story all round it seems :/


----------



## planetgeli (Oct 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> Belgiums hospital data looks especially bad.



Speaking of Belgium.

*Doctors with Covid-19 asked to keep working in Liege hospitals
*
Several hospitals in Belgium have requested that doctors and nurses who test positive for Covid-19, continue to work if they have no symptoms.

The decision has been made by 10 hospitals in Liege, which are dealing with a surge in coronavirus admissions.

The city is one of the worst affected areas of Europe and hospitals have started transferring patients elsewhere and cancelled all non-urgent surgery.

The situation is exacerbated by a lack of doctors and nurses available.

A quarter of medical staff in Liege are reported to be off work with Covid-19. But another 10% of staff who have tested positive but are asymptomic have been asked to continue working.

The president of the Belgian Association of Medical Unions, Dr Philippe Devos, acknowledged the obvious risk of transferring the virus to patients, but says they’ve been left with no choice *in order to avoid the hospital system collapsing within days.*


----------



## elbows (Oct 26, 2020)

When the dust settles on this pandemic, I expect questions to be asked about what exactly it is that we are saving when doing absolutely fucking idiotic things to prevent hospital systems from collapsing. Save the NHS, die at home, or die in a care home that took infected patient, etc etc etc.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 26, 2020)

Mexico admits Covid death toll much higher than official number
					

Disease now suspected of killing at least 139,153 people compared with official toll of 88,924




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## teuchter (Oct 26, 2020)

elbows said:


> Back when there used to be noises about how Germany controlled the virus in the first wave using contact tracing, I warned that even in Germany it had its limits, and I had seen at least one report that Germany had to abandon the contact tracing approach during the busiest phase of first wave infections. I never got confirmation of that though, so I wasnt too sure of those facts.
> 
> Anyway this time around I jsut saw something similar:
> 
> ...


I am watching Germany with interest too.


----------



## Hyperdark (Oct 27, 2020)

Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) - Statistics and Research


----------



## Yossarian (Oct 27, 2020)

Hyperdark said:


> Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) - Statistics and Research
> View attachment 236076



Scary -  I think the government would much prefer the data to be presented in a way that makes it look like they're doing a good job.


----------



## Hyperdark (Oct 27, 2020)

Yes...when you look at the countries doing worse than us it's France that hits me as the surprising one, though they are of course more touchy feely than us Brits (well the older ones anyway)


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 27, 2020)

Hyperdark said:


> Yes...when you look at the countries doing worse than us it's France that hits me as the surprising one, though they are of course more touchy feely than us Brits (well the older ones anyway)


I don't know how it is these days but before I moved here the standard greetings between friends was between 2 and 5 cheek kisses depending on which region you were in.


----------



## teuchter (Oct 27, 2020)

Seems to me that we're back in a situation where (unfortunately) the numbers are high enough that we can use deaths as a meaningful indicator of how things are going. Obviously not well in Eastern Europe. Czechia seem to be on a trajectory that's about the same as the UK's first wave.


----------



## teuchter (Oct 27, 2020)

Hyperdark said:


> Yes...when you look at the countries doing worse than us it's France that hits me as the surprising one, though they are of course more touchy feely than us Brits (well the older ones anyway)


France and the UK have followed a pretty similar path right the way through as far as the overall numbers are concerned. The main difference is really only that they managed to drop out of the first wave more quickly. At the moment it doesn't seem like either country is doing obviously better or worse than the other.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

Fuck sake, on the worldometers chart today there have been 6947 deaths worldwide whereas last Tuesday there was 6178. I know a lot of this happened from the weekend but its still absolutely horrible and quite surreal with all the other bullshit going on.


----------



## planetgeli (Oct 28, 2020)

Highlights from first term science and technology accomplishments in the U.S




Covid beaten. Trump wins.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 28, 2020)

😂🤣😭


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Oct 28, 2020)

teuchter said:


> France and the UK have followed a pretty similar path right the way through as far as the overall numbers are concerned. The main difference is really only that they managed to drop out of the first wave more quickly. At the moment it doesn't seem like either country is doing obviously better or worse than the other.
> 
> View attachment 236195


What is Sweden doing differently this time around to avoid the resurgence the rest of Europe is experiencing?


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

Their stats are released cumulatively


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				




See here, they don't release them all on one day. If you look at the last week the curve is the same as other countries. And Swedish friends are living under tighter restrictions


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

They attracted a bit of criticism for this approach last time as it was thought the authorities were trying to make it look better than it was, I think it's just the way they do things in Sweden though.


----------



## two sheds (Oct 28, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Their stats are released cumulatively



non-cumulatively?


----------



## teuchter (Oct 28, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> What is Sweden doing differently this time around to avoid the resurgence the rest of Europe is experiencing?
> 
> View attachment 236226


It wouldn't be quite true to say the "rest of Europe".

I don't think your graphs shows deaths.

There are other countries aside from Sweden who so far haven't seen a big "second wave" rise in deaths. Norway, Denmark, Germany for example.


----------



## teuchter (Oct 28, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Sweden COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
> 
> 
> Sweden Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
> ...


Doesn't make any difference if you are looking at the 1-week average. There's no doubt that as far as deaths are concerned, they are currently doing loads better than the UK. They aren't unique in that though.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Oct 28, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> They attracted a bit of criticism for this approach last time as it was thought the authorities were trying to make it look better than it was, I think it's just the way they do things in Sweden though.


tbh I think we all get a bit carried away with checking the daily updates (I do!), but calmer heads (elbows ) know to wait a week or two for the true picture to emerge before saying too much. That's true for everywhere, not just Sweden.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

No they release it in such a way as the previous days stats aren't the complete ones. You need to look at what it was a week ago.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Oct 28, 2020)

Yeah, you need to know each country's patterns. UK has its Tuesday catch-up. Spain has a catch-up from the autonomous regions on Fridays. France has periodic corrections. And all the 'daily' figures are in reality spread out across the previous few days and weeks in any case.


----------



## 2hats (Oct 28, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Highlights from first term science and technology accomplishments in the U.S
> 
> 
> View attachment 236211
> ...


Reassuring to see that Ivanka is advising the tangerine shitgibbon on science and technology.


----------



## two sheds (Oct 28, 2020)

while advising the Dems on ethics


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

Iran's outbreak looks totally out of control


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
					

Find latest news from every corner of the globe at Reuters.com, your online source for breaking international news coverage.




					uk.reuters.com


----------



## Supine (Oct 28, 2020)

planetgeli said:


> Highlights from first term science and technology accomplishments in the U.S
> 
> 
> View attachment 236211
> ...



I was going to post that earlier but I was crying / laughing too hard to type


----------



## two sheds (Oct 28, 2020)

NK could take that straight over with a c&p of "North Korea" and "our Great Leader".


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

'We have defeated the United States', said covid in a press release


----------



## Teaboy (Oct 28, 2020)

The situation in Iran is so troubling.  It makes me wonder what is actually happening in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen etc.


----------



## planetgeli (Oct 28, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> The situation in Iran is so troubling.  It makes me wonder what is actually happening in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen etc.



Well, speaking of Yemen.

*Satellite images used to estimate Yemen excess deaths*



A new study using satellite imagery has sought to shed light on the full impact of the coronavirus outbreak in Yemen, whose health system has been devastated by five years of civil war.

Researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) counted freshly-dug graves in identifiable cemeteries in the southern, government-controlled province of Aden.

They estimated there were 2,100 excess deaths - the difference between the actual number of deaths and the average number in the same time period in previous years - between April and September.

It is not possible to know how many were directly or indirectly attributable to Covid-19. But authorities in Yemen had recorded only 601 associated deaths nationwide as of 24 October.

The Yemeni government has not commented on the study, but it has previously said it reports figures daily from areas it controls and does not hide data.

The World Health Organization is concerned that the official figures underestimate the extent of Yemen’s outbreak, which it partly attributes to a lack of testing facilities.

The co-leader of the LSHTM study, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, told Reuters news agency that having an accurate picture of Covid-19’s impact was “vital for effective government and humanitarian responses"


----------



## elbows (Oct 28, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> tbh I think we all get a bit carried away with checking the daily updates (I do!), but calmer heads (elbows ) know to wait a week or two for the true picture to emerge before saying too much. That's true for everywhere, not just Sweden.



One of the drawbacks to my approach is that its often easier to spot bad news much more quickly than good news in this pandemic, and it is unlikely that I can fully compensate for that. Indeed it is more likely to amplify my natural bias towards non-optimistic stances. My attempts to avoid negativity in life have so far been repeatedly thwarted by the fact that whenever I am able to test my opinions, beliefs and future expectations, the strongest correlations seem to usually end up being with reality, rather than negativity. Which is why I end up expressing a desire to be proven wrong more in this pandemic.

In regards Sweden, to be honest if there hadnt been so much noise about their measures and approach, so much misuse of their stance by Barrington clowns etc, then I wouldnt have paid much attention to their data at all. Because the scale of all manner of things are big factors in many aspects of this pandemic, so its much safer if I restrict my comparisons and trend tracking to nations of roughly comparable size to our own. Which as far as Europe goes means looking at the similarities with Spain, France and Italy, and being fascinated by the differences with Germany.


----------



## planetgeli (Oct 28, 2020)

And Syria too. There's a rather depressing video on this page (titled Doctors expect Covid catatrophe in Syria).



			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-54716676
		


"Aeroplanes, rockets, covid, angry, poor, Assad security - it's all the same. All these terms mean death for us"

"Absolutely the virus is out of control in the camps"

Edit - Here's the actual video on its own.









						Doctors expect 'Covid catastrophe' in Syria
					

Doctors say Covid-19 is now rampant in the refugee camps of Idlib, north-west Syria.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## teqniq (Oct 28, 2020)

Yes folks, it's make your skin crawl time.


----------



## Yossarian (Oct 28, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Yes folks, it's make your skin crawl time.




I give it about five weeks before we see yet another "Televangelist who said COVID only kills sinners dies of COVID" headline.


----------



## teqniq (Oct 28, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> I give it about five weeks before we see yet another "Televangelist who said COVID only kills sinners dies of COVID" headline.


G-d willing.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 28, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Yes folks, it's make your skin crawl time.




He's a right fucking nutter.


----------



## pesh (Oct 28, 2020)

mans toast


----------



## two sheds (Oct 28, 2020)

that smile reaches right down into hell


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

Trump doesn't even read the bible?


----------



## LDC (Oct 28, 2020)

teqniq said:


> Yes folks, it's make your skin crawl time.




Fucking. Hell. That makes me want to scream.

He's like some leader from a film about a post apocalyptic cult. He also looks like the devil, is his face even real?


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

I'm not sure that's how immunity works.


----------



## elbows (Oct 28, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Trump doesn't even read the bible?



But the cheese on one of his burgers once resembled Jesus and thats good enough for him.


----------



## Yossarian (Oct 28, 2020)

In March, the same preacher "executed judgment" on COVID-19 and commanded the virus to leave the United States of America - for some reason, developments over the following six months  failed to persuade him that his god has forsaken him and he should seek a new line of work.


----------



## weltweit (Oct 28, 2020)

Amazing, amusing, fruit loops, loonies ..


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 28, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> In March, the same preacher "executed judgment" on COVID-19 and commanded the virus to leave the United States of America - for some reason, developments over the following six months  failed to persuade him that his god has forsaken him and he should seek a new line of work.




The remix was better.


----------



## elbows (Oct 28, 2020)

Yossarian said:


> for some reason, developments over the following six months  failed to persuade him that his god has forsaken him and he should seek a new line of work.



Thats because his line of work involves overacting to an extent that would make Shatner blush, and he knows it. 

One of the many reasons I love the remix is because one of his goofy poses speaks the truth of the ham aspects.



For some reason my mind wanders to a similar phenomenon...


----------



## 2hats (Oct 28, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> I'm not sure that's how immunity works.


Beyond that, there is some evidence from key animal models that suggests the potential here (in coronavirus) for a window of viral shedding after subsequent exposure in vaccinated subjects, as well as the immunologically naive (high virion counts/activity in the upper respiratory tract). In other words, those who have been vaccinated or have acquired natural immunity could briefly be _carriers_ despite not developing any disease (we do, after all, appear to be observing a very high number of asymptomatic spreaders). This is seen with a few other virus vaccination programmes.


----------



## elbows (Oct 28, 2020)

Well there goes France.









						Coronavirus: Macron declares second national lockdown in France
					

The tough new curbs on travel, businesses and gatherings are aimed at tackling a Covid-19 surge.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## ska invita (Oct 28, 2020)

Does anyone know what furlough-type money people in France are getting?


Europe has really fucked it eh


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

2hats said:


> Beyond that, there is some evidence from key animal models that suggests the potential here (in coronavirus) for a window of viral shedding after subsequent exposure in vaccinated subjects, as well as the immunologically naive (high virion counts/activity in the upper respiratory tract). In other words, those who have been vaccinated or have acquired natural immunity could briefly be _carriers_ despite not developing any disease (we do, after all, appear to be observing a very high number of asymptomatic spreaders). This is seen with a few other virus vaccination programmes.



So if I've understood you post correctly, if you are vaccinated or have recently had covid you could still be an asymptomatic spreader and give it to someone else?


----------



## 2hats (Oct 28, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> So if I've understood you post correctly, if you are vaccinated or have recently had covid you could still be an asymptomatic spreader and give it to someone else?


Quite possibly.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

2hats said:


> Quite possibly.


I guess if most people are vaccinated that wouldn't matter? But that's assuming people are going to have the vaccine regularly at least for the first couple of years.


----------



## William of Walworth (Oct 28, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> So if I've understood you post correctly, if you are vaccinated or have recently had covid you could still be an asymptomatic spreader and give it to someone else?



To somebody else who isn't vaccinated? Or to anybody?

I'm failing to understand these points I'm afraid  

ETA :




			
				frogwoman said:
			
		

> I guess if most people are vaccinated that wouldn't matter? But people are going to have the vaccine regularly at least for the first couple of years.



Ahh, OK -- thead was moving too fast!!


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 28, 2020)

Tbh so am I, I'm feeling a bit poorly (I don't reckon it's covid tho) and probably should go to bed in a sec.


----------



## spring-peeper (Oct 28, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Tbh so am I, I'm feeling a bit poorly (I don't reckon it's covid tho) and probably should go to bed in a sec.




Feel better soon


----------



## William of Walworth (Oct 28, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Tbh so am I, I'm feeling a bit poorly (I don't reckon it's covid tho) and probably should go to bed in a sec.



I hope you get plenty of nice restful sleep!


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 28, 2020)

ska invita said:


> Does anyone know what furlough-type money people in France are getting?
> 
> 
> Europe has really fucked it eh


I read they had an 84% furlough type thing up to to 4.5 times the minimum wage which is 1539.42 euro per month.


----------



## Supine (Oct 29, 2020)

Nice article on spread in different settings 









						A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air
					

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure




					english.elpais.com


----------



## teqniq (Oct 29, 2020)

This

Scientists warn of new coronavirus variant spreading across Europe

coupled with this, does nor bode well.


----------



## dessiato (Oct 29, 2020)

.


----------



## Cloo (Oct 29, 2020)

Hard lockdown in Slovakia now according to my folks -  essential shops only,  people only allowed out 1-5pm, and also in their case 9-11am for 'oldies shopping', as mum puts it! 

I congratulated them on being in a country that's actually attempting to bring numbers down properly.


----------



## Teaboy (Oct 29, 2020)

Cloo said:


> Hard lockdown in Slovakia now according to my folks -  essential shops only,  people only allowed out 1-5pm, and also in their case 9-11am for 'oldies shopping', as mum puts it!
> 
> I congratulated them on being in a country that's actually attempting to bring numbers down properly.



What is the furlough scheme like?  Is there a furlough scheme?


----------



## Cloo (Oct 29, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> What is the furlough scheme like?  Is there a furlough scheme?


No idea what sort of economic support is like there or indeed any EU country with a smaller economy


----------



## crossthebreeze (Oct 29, 2020)

Don't know about Slovakia, but Czech Republic furlough (and quarantine/self-isolation funding) is 100% of employees wages up to 50,000 Crowns/month (average wage is 34,077 Crowns/month). Self employed people get 500 Crowns/day if in the most affected trades.
(Edit to add correct source)
https://www.vlada.cz/en/media-centrum/aktualne/measures-adopted-by-the-czech-government-against-coronavirus-180545/


----------



## Mation (Oct 30, 2020)

teqniq said:


> This
> 
> Scientists warn of new coronavirus variant spreading across Europe
> 
> ...


What happened to all FT coronavirus coverage being free to read?


----------



## teqniq (Oct 30, 2020)

Mation said:


> What happened to all FT coronavirus coverage being free to read?


Use this to bypass it:









						GitHub - iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome: Bypass Paywalls web browser extension for Chrome and Firefox.
					

Bypass Paywalls web browser extension for Chrome and Firefox. - GitHub - iamadamdev/bypass-paywalls-chrome: Bypass Paywalls web browser extension for Chrome and Firefox.




					github.com


----------



## krtek a houby (Oct 30, 2020)

A Bible and gun to get the message across.

https://www.idahopress.com/eyeonboi...cle_b0d01773-dd95-5b08-994e-d81fb4a175ca.html


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Oct 30, 2020)

*451: Unavailable due to legal reasons*
We recognize you are attempting to access this website from a country belonging to the European Economic Area (EEA) including the EU which enforces the General Data Protection Regulation(GDPR) and therefore access cannot be granted at this time. For any issues, contact customerservice@idahopress.com or call 208-467-9251.


----------



## krtek a houby (Oct 30, 2020)

Mr.Bishie said:


> *451: Unavailable due to legal reasons*
> We recognize you are attempting to access this website from a country belonging to the European Economic Area (EEA) including the EU which enforces the General Data Protection Regulation(GDPR) and therefore access cannot be granted at this time. For any issues, contact customerservice@idahopress.com or call 208-467-9251.



Ah, ok another link

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/30/idaho-covid-lieutenant-governor/

The video shows Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin (R) sitting in the driver’s seat of a pickup truck, a Bible in her hand, as she rails against the coronavirus restrictions carried out in the state she helps lead.

“We recognize that all of us are by nature, free and equal, and have certain inalienable rights,” she says, grabbing a gun and placing it on top of the Bible with a wide smile on her face. “Among which are enjoying and defending life and liberty, acquiring, possessing and protecting property and pursuing happiness and securing safety."

Plenty of Democratic and Republican governors have faced backlash from a vocal minority of residents and lawmakers for their health directives, but few have faced such vocal opposition from their No. 2 in the state capitol. Alabama’s lieutenant governor, Will Ainsworth (R), blasted a statewide mask mandate instituted by Gov. Kay Ivey (R) over the summer.


----------



## William of Walworth (Oct 30, 2020)

Mation said:


> What happened to all FT coronavirus coverage being free to read?



Good link from krtek a houby above , but my best way of remembering how to get FT stories was just to Google the exact headline -- does that still work?

Also, a good while back, the FT were making _some_ of their Covid-related stories free to read anyway -- it that still the case or not?


----------



## LDC (Oct 30, 2020)

Long but very worthwhile article from Chuang on the pandemic, lockdown, and worker organising during both. Also has some interesting insights into the responses by elements of the Chinese State and people living in China and why they were effective.









						Worker organising under the pandemic: reflections from China
					

The impact of job losses and declining incomes on workers’ lives is much greater than before. This has repressed the beginning of a renewed period of struggle. However, this has not affected the wi…




					chuangcn.org


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 30, 2020)

545 more deaths in France. Fuck,


----------



## ice-is-forming (Oct 30, 2020)

Australia


----------



## elbows (Oct 30, 2020)

Lockdown for Belgium. Well I should probably say this winters version of a lockdown, which has generally begun in Europe with flimsier lockdowns that attempt to keep schools and factories going.









						Covid: Belgium announces return to national lockdown
					

Non-essential shops will close until mid-December to help curb the highest infection rate in Europe.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Supine (Oct 30, 2020)

Another great website. Super Spread. 









						Gyms. Bars. The White House. See how superspreading events are driving the pandemic
					

Preventing hot spots of COVID-19 transmission has emerged as a key challenge in the fight against the virus




					vis.sciencemag.org


----------



## elbows (Oct 30, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> 545 more deaths in France. Fuck,



I'm not sure how of a mistake it might be to attribute all of the numbers in this section of their dashboard to care homes, given that EMS is also mentioned, but it looks like a lot of those deaths are coming from there rather than hospital figures. Which is tragically not a surprise as we can see from the confirmed cases stats for EHPAD & EMS that high numbers of confirmed cases have suddenly been reported in those stats recently. As shown in the orange graph part of this screenshot I took of the dashboard, along with that red tile detailing cumulative and daily deaths.


Elsewhere on the dashboard we have the hospital deaths. For both of these death statistics, the number in brackets is todays reported figure, so that total you have for today is the sum of 255 hospital deaths and 290 EHPAD & EMS deaths.








						Tableau de bord COVID-19 Suivi de l’épidémie de COVID-19 en France
					

Suivi de l’épidémie de COVID-19 en France




					dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr
				




I havent found time in the pandemic to study the care home aspect in France properly, but its always sounded like Frances EHPAD care home system was left especially vulnerable in this pandemic, and there are now indications that the same thing has happened again. Horrible stuff. A story repeated in many countries to somewhat varying degrees, and a very particular source of shame and future change.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 31, 2020)

Belgium has gone back into a lockdown with schools closed until November 15th, non essential shops shut etc 









						Belgium becomes latest European country to announce strict lockdown
					

Belgium becomes latest European country to announce strict lockdown amid soaring coronavirus cases




					www.euronews.com


----------



## Cloo (Oct 31, 2020)

Wow! Slovakia are attempting to test the entire population (5.5m). Parents had to get up 7 to go for theirs,  certified clear after waiting 20 mins for result.  Here's my mum waiting for the outcome


----------



## Cloo (Oct 31, 2020)

Presumably if they do this, they will isolate everyone with it, while keeping a hard lockdown on the general population for another few weeks - in theory they might then have under control.

My mum says there were intial wobbles about the logistics, but they seem mostly sorted.


----------



## frogwoman (Oct 31, 2020)

The West has failed – US and Europe have made a mess of handling the crisis
					

Western leaders have been insular slow learners at every stage of the Covid pandemic




					www.irishtimes.com


----------



## Cloo (Oct 31, 2020)

Two of the musicians who usually play at my parents' music festival out there are playing under a gazebo for a testing queue in Bratislava!


----------



## Cloo (Oct 31, 2020)

Interestingly, the Slovak President is sceptical, but PM is pushing for it: Coronavirus: Slovakia holds national test but president calls for rethink


----------



## Mation (Oct 31, 2020)

Cloo said:


> Interestingly, the Slovak President is sceptical


On what grounds?


----------



## Cloo (Oct 31, 2020)

Mation said:


> On what grounds?


Lack of people to carry out tests - I guess concern it will be a wasted effort. Also, the test have a 30% false negative rate, but the PM reckons this will be good enough.


----------



## Teaboy (Oct 31, 2020)

Mation said:


> On what grounds?



Supremely wealthy and knowing the covid is not going to affect them or their family?


----------



## Mation (Oct 31, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Supremely wealthy and knowing the covid is not going to affect them or their family?


I meant the stated reasoning, not the reality.

(Though I should say that I know fuck all about the place or people involved!)


----------



## Cloo (Oct 31, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Supremely wealthy and knowing the covid is not going to affect them or their family?


No, I don't actually think that's at all the case for Caputova - she's from a working class family, there's no guilded political class in Slovakia (yet). It's sad we're so used to living under such bastards that this is what we expect of leaders. I mean, Slovakia's politics leaves much to be desired I am sure, but at least they haven't got a public school system and the 'leaders' that produces.


----------



## Johnny Doe (Nov 2, 2020)

Harry Smiles said:


> So, considering whether to take the family to Tenerife for Xmas, if the 'non-essential travel' advice is lifted and normal travel insurance is therefore available. Can anyone who has spent more time looking at this comment on their much lower cases per million people? Less testing, more testing? Is the relevant metric actually active cases as a % of the population?



Didn't book anything for fear of change in rules. 

For people that did though, if you booked the Canaries when they opened the travel corridor *a week ago,*  I assume you can't go if you booked for November?


----------



## Doodler (Nov 2, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> The West has failed – US and Europe have made a mess of handling the crisis
> 
> 
> Western leaders have been insular slow learners at every stage of the Covid pandemic
> ...



It does look like the pandemic marks an inflexion point in the rise of Chinese and Far Eastern technological and global influence relative to the West. It's a huge change that has occurred within the lifetimes of many people posting here and iit's accelerating.

How we're seen: drawing from the South China Morning Post contrasts a sensible Chinese woman with dozy-looking Western manchild.


----------



## Cid (Nov 2, 2020)

Mation said:


> What happened to all FT coronavirus coverage being free to read?



When I open the link it has ‘coronavirus free to read’ emblazoned across the top.


----------



## Mation (Nov 2, 2020)

Cid said:


> When I open the link it has ‘coronavirus free to read’ emblazoned across the top.


That is puzzling. Maybe there's a limit or they don't like adblockers (beyond a limit; I've been able to access their free stuff before...)


----------



## Cid (Nov 2, 2020)

Mation said:


> That is puzzling. Maybe there's a limit or they don't like adblockers (beyond a limit; I've been able to access their free stuff before...)



Ah, probably ad blocker - I was on phone which doesn’t have one.


----------



## Cloo (Nov 2, 2020)

Slovakia tasted 50% of the population at the weekend,  which I think is what they were aiming for. Analysis of results will prove interesting.


----------



## belboid (Nov 2, 2020)

Cloo said:


> Slovakia t*a*sted 50% of the population at the weekend,  which I think is what they were aiming for. Analysis of results will prove interesting.


Full-bodied with caramel notes I'm suspecting


----------



## Cloo (Nov 2, 2020)

More like a strong flavour of pear or plum brandy.


----------



## The39thStep (Nov 3, 2020)

They dont mess about there do they?


----------



## frogwoman (Nov 3, 2020)

854 deaths in France. Fuck


----------



## elbows (Nov 3, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> 854 deaths in France. Fuck



Well you know I'm not one to downplay deaths, quite the opposite, but I will take the opportunity to add this explanation to the reporting of deaths in France, and what we should therefore expect on certain days in future:



> The sharp rise of the daily death toll is in part due to the fact the nursing homes fatalities are taken in account twice a week, on Tuesdays and on Fridays.



From  3h ago 19:13


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Nov 3, 2020)

elbows said:


> Well you know I'm not one to downplay deaths, quite the opposite, but I will take the opportunity to add this explanation to the reporting of deaths in France, and what we should therefore expect on certain days in future:
> 
> 
> 
> From  3h ago 19:13


from ourworldindata website France 7 day average is 345.29 today up from 199.29 7 days ago.


----------



## elbows (Nov 3, 2020)

And based on their hospital figures I expect it to get much worse.

Since I last did this graph I fixed the Italy data because my previous version didnt include intensive care patients in the overall hospital numbers there. And the UK figure is at an awkward moment due to a data blip so best not to read anything into the recent change in trajectory just yet.

Number of Covid-19 patients in hospital:


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Nov 4, 2020)

2020 setting itself up for a strong finish...









						Alle mink skal slås ihjel: Muteret coronavirus fra mink er en trussel for mennesker
					

Læs mere her.




					www.bt.dk
				






> *Mutated coronavirus from mink is a threat to humans*
> 
> The situation regarding corona infection among mink has now developed to a critical stage in North Jutland.
> 
> ...


----------



## Mation (Nov 4, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> 2020 setting itself up for a strong finish...
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Meaning sars-cov-2 has mutated, rather than another coronavirus? It doesn't say (but I think is implied).


----------



## IC3D (Nov 4, 2020)

Certainly get the feeling it's out of control and chances of a vaccine soon are getting slimmer


----------



## teuchter (Nov 4, 2020)

https://www.thelocal.dk/20201104/denmark-to-cull-millions-of-minks-over-mutated-coronavirus


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Nov 4, 2020)

I remember seeing something about minks being culled a while back already.

e2a: 11th October in the news :/


----------



## IC3D (Nov 4, 2020)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> I remember seeing something about minks being culled a while back already.


Spain possibly iirc


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Nov 4, 2020)

IC3D said:


> Spain possibly iirc


nope it was denmark already 13/10 (2.5 Millions culled there then), October 11th in Utah (10000 dead mink from Covid)

Who had mink covid on their bingo card?


----------



## Mation (Nov 4, 2020)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> nope it was denmark already 13/10 (2.5 Millions culled there then), October 11th in Utah (10000 dead mink from Covid)
> 
> Who had mink covid on their bingo card?


I eschewed them for mutant crayfish.


----------



## frogwoman (Nov 4, 2020)

9165 deaths reported in one day so far


----------



## Orang Utan (Nov 4, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> 9165 deaths reported in one day so far


stop counting!


----------



## frogwoman (Nov 5, 2020)

Orang Utan said:


> stop counting!


Aye, stats watching isn't doing me much good recently.  neither is the equally healthy activity of refreshing the US election updates


----------



## Orang Utan (Nov 5, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Aye, stats watching isn't doing me much good recently.  neither is the equally healthy activity of refreshing the US election updates


I'm guilty of the latter too


----------



## scifisam (Nov 5, 2020)

Mation said:


> Meaning sars-cov-2 has mutated, rather than another coronavirus? It doesn't say (but I think is implied).



I think it's saying it's a different coronavirus.


----------



## elbows (Nov 5, 2020)

I think its Covid-19 but the articles I've seen so far are badly worded in key places.

The Covid-19 in mink is not news, and the Netherlands already did a cull some time ago as a result. The mutations in question are news, but very unclear news due to the way the stories have been written in English so far.

I would need to know more about the strain in question and the mutations in question before I could say more. In particular the stuff about antibodies is very poorly worded in the following article:









						Denmark to cull up to 17 million mink amid coronavirus fears
					

Cases of a mutated strain of Covid-19 have been detected that may undermine future vaccines.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> Ms Frederiksen cited a government report which said the mutated virus had been found to weaken the body's ability to form antibodies, potentially making the current vaccines under development for Covid-19 ineffective.



In theory the default thing I'd assume from reading that is that they mean the strain in question is sufficiently different to the main strains in humans at the moment that the antibodies people produced in response to those  common human strains are a poor match for the strain that has passed back to humans from mink. So you could catch the mink version even if still immune to the other strains, and a different vaccine may be required to offer protection against the mink strain. Because that would fit with my previous knowledge on the broad subject of viral mutations. But the way they've worded it points in a different direction, they make it sound like this strain does something to the bodies antibody production capabilities. But I suspect that may just be down to poor government communication or translation or interpretation by journalists. I will see if I can find out.


----------



## elbows (Nov 5, 2020)

The Guardian managed to include enough detail that its still a fit for the assumption I mentioned in the last message.









						Denmark tightens lockdown in north over mink Covid outbreak
					

Twelve people infected so far with new strain against which vaccines may be ineffective




					www.theguardian.com
				






> The country’s health authorities fear the new strain could prove to be more resistant against a vaccine. Kåre Mølbak, head of the State Serum Institute, the national authority for the control of infectious diseases, said the strain had mutations on its spike protein, the part of the virus that infects healthy cells.
> 
> He said the strain posed a potential threat to the efficacy of Covid-19 vaccines, which work by disabling the spike protein. “There is a risk that vaccines targeting the spike protein will not provide optimal protection against the new viruses occurring in mink,” a report published by the institute said.





> Denmark’s health minister, Magnus Heunicke, said laboratory research had “shown that mutations may affect current candidates for a vaccine against Covid-19”. He said: “It is a threat to the development of vaccines against the coronavirus. This is why we must lead a national campaign.”
> 
> The World Health Organization said it had been “informed by Denmark of a number of persons infected with coronavirus from mink, with some genetic changes in the virus”.


----------



## miss direct (Nov 6, 2020)

I have a question about numbers. Turkey's death figures have been consistently at 70 something for weeks. Yesterday that shifted up to 80 something, which I predict will be the case for a few weeks. What is the probability of those numbers actually being accurate?


----------



## Supine (Nov 6, 2020)

miss direct said:


> I have a question about numbers. Turkey's death figures have been consistently at 70 something for weeks. Yesterday that shifted up to 80 something, which I predict will be the case for a few weeks. What is the probability of those numbers actually being accurate?



It's an impossible question to answer but if you look at cases and deaths weekly they kind of look flatish with maybe a little rise with natural variation.


----------



## miss direct (Nov 6, 2020)

Thanks. Is that broadly similar to other countries? Am I right to be highly suspicious?


----------



## elbows (Nov 6, 2020)

I'd need to study their regional picture and have knowledge that I am unlikely to obtain before I could comment properly on Turkeys figures. Because, for example, some regions getting worse while some get better is one of the situations that could result in a fairly flat graph. I'd also want to look at the timing and scale of any restrictions they brought in, and also ideally hospital data.

If they have overall excess mortality statistics that are credible then those are what I would use in future years to judge how bad the pandemic got there.


----------



## 2hats (Nov 7, 2020)

N439K variant found to evade antibody immunity.



> The circulating SARS-CoV-2 spike variant N439K maintains fitness while evading antibody-mediated immunity
> Thomson et al
> 
> Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 can mutate to evade immunity, with consequences for the efficacy of emerging vaccines and antibody therapeutics. Herein we demonstrate that the immunodominant SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) receptor binding motif (RBM) is the most divergent region of S, and provide epidemiological, clinical, and molecular characterization of a prevalent RBM variant, N439K. We demonstrate that N439K S protein has enhanced binding affinity to the hACE2 receptor, and that N439K virus has similar clinical outcomes and in vitro replication fitness as compared to wild-type. We observed that the N439K mutation resulted in immune escape from a panel of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies, including one in clinical trials, as well as from polyclonal sera from a sizeable fraction of persons recovered from infection. Immune evasion mutations that maintain virulence and fitness such as N439K can emerge within SARS-CoV-2 S, highlighting the need for ongoing molecular surveillance to guide development and usage of vaccines and therapeutics.


doi: 10.1101/2020.11.04.355842

More details in thread here with commentary on DK variation in mink:


----------



## William of Walworth (Nov 7, 2020)

IC3D said:


> Certainly get the feeling it's out of control  //  and chances of a vaccine soon are getting slimmer



I entirely agree with you on the first bit (for now, at least!) 

But as for the second, you'd need *different* reasons to be convincing with vaccine-pessimism, IMO 

(Not that I'm _all that _optimistic about vaccine-timing myself , but make the *right *connections about why, I'd advocate ...... )

(..... apologies though if I've misunderstood your post above!   )


----------



## kabbes (Nov 9, 2020)

Pfizer have just announced 90% effectiveness for their vaccine — better than expected


----------



## 2hats (Nov 9, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Pfizer have just announced 90% effectiveness for their vaccine — better than expected


90% tantalisingly close to true herd immunity when factoring in refuseniks and the contraindicated. No information on immuno-effectivity wrt N439K.


----------



## Cloo (Nov 9, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Pfizer have just announced 90% effectiveness for their vaccine — better than expected


Yup, big news.... here's hoping. I think the path to getting sufficient people vaccinated and seeing how it really, really works 'in the wild' is not going to be as quick as people hope.


----------



## Cid (Nov 9, 2020)

2hats said:


> 90% tantalisingly close to true herd immunity when factoring in refuseniks and the contraindicated. No information on immuno-effectivity wrt N439K.



Assuming mass vaccination. I believe the idea here was to vaccinate only older people... I suppose it depends what the costs are.


----------



## 2hats (Nov 9, 2020)

Cid said:


> Assuming mass vaccination. I believe the idea here was to vaccinate only older people... I suppose it depends what the costs are.


Vaccines are less effective as we age. The elderly are protected by having younger generations vaccinated.


----------



## two sheds (Nov 9, 2020)

2hats said:


> Vaccines are less effective as we age. The elderly are protected by having younger generations vaccinated.



is that related to T-cells?


----------



## 2hats (Nov 9, 2020)

two sheds said:


> is that related to T-cells?


The immune system in general.


----------



## Cid (Nov 9, 2020)

2hats said:


> Vaccines are less effective as we age. The elderly are protected by having younger generations vaccinated.



Maybe so, but that was still the plan. Kate Bingham quoted in the ft, 4th Oct:



> https://www.ft.com/content/d2e00128-7889-4d5d-84a3-43e51355a751
> “People keep talking about ‘time to vaccinate the whole population’, but that is misguided,” she said. “There’s going to be no vaccination of people under 18. It’s an adult-only vaccine, for people over 50, focusing on health workers and care home workers and the vulnerable.”



Article below unless the ft does it’s link fail thing.









						Less than half UK population to receive coronavirus vaccine, says task force head | Free to read
					

PM warns of ‘bumpy’ winter while data ‘issue’ blamed for 16,000-case backlog pushing numbers to record high




					www.ft.com


----------



## Cid (Nov 9, 2020)

I suppose that strategy may change depending on effectiveness, how it acts etc.


----------



## 2hats (Nov 9, 2020)

Cid said:


> Maybe so, but that was still the plan.


I wouldn't dispute that. But it remains a fact that duration of vaccine protection for the older cohorts is typically observed to be shorter and they gain a great degree of benefit from younger cohorts being vaccinated. The entire population can't be vaccinated overnight so there has to be a rolling plan. Roughly, vaccinate the elderly first then work your way down the age cohorts before returning to the elderly for boosters.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Nov 9, 2020)

Can we keep the vaccine discussion to, err, the vaccine thread, to avoid duplicating everything?   









						Possible vaccines/treatment(s) for Coronavirus
					

GP friend been told to make plans for a roll-out of a vaccine to their patients later this year. Plans in case it happens and everything is ready to go, rather than it being a certainty. Looking promising though. I've got my second dose of the Novavax trial end of this week, it's a protein...




					www.urban75.net


----------



## elbows (Nov 9, 2020)

Belgium reckon they are past the peak of daily hospital admissions, and their dashboard data does tend to indicate that (this is daily admissions, not numbers in hospital).



Dashboard Epistat – COVID-19 Belgian Dashboard


----------



## Cloo (Nov 9, 2020)

2hats said:


> Vaccines are less effective as we age. The elderly are protected by having younger generations vaccinated.


That's really interesting, wonder how one then works out best cohorts to vaccinate. Face-to- 
face NHS and care workers a priority perhaps?


----------



## Supine (Nov 9, 2020)

Vaccines for older people also contain an adjuvant which helps to give their immune system a little helping hand.


----------



## 2hats (Nov 9, 2020)

Supine said:


> Vaccines for older people also contain an adjuvant which helps to give their immune system a little helping hand.


And getting the fine details of the specifics of that mix correct take additional time.


----------



## HAL9000 (Nov 10, 2020)

Lack of action at the centre and in some states...



> *Pandemic on course to overwhelm U.S. health system before Biden takes office*
> 
> The country’s health care system is already buckling under the load of the resurgent outbreak that’s approaching 10 million cases nationwide.





> The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts 370,000 Americans will be dead by Inauguration Day, exactly one year after the first U.S. case of Covid-19 was reported. Nearly 238,000 have already died.





> Some governors in the Northeast, which was hit hard early in the pandemic, are imposing new restrictions. In the last week, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island activated nightly stay-at-home orders and ordered businesses to close by 10 p.m. And Maine Democratic Gov. Janet Mills on Thursday ordered everyone to wear a mask in public, even if they can maintain social distance.
> 
> But in the Dakotas and other states where the virus is raging, governors are resisting calls from health experts to mandate masks and restrict gatherings. On Sunday morning, South Dakota Republican Gov. Kristi Noem incorrectly attributed her state's huge surge in cases to an increase in testing and praised Trump's approach of giving her the "flexibility to do the right thing." The state has no mask mandate.





> Minnesota officials said last week that ICU beds in the Twin Cities metro area were 98 percent full, and in El Paso, Texas, the county morgue bought another refrigerated trailer to deal with the swelling body count.











						Pandemic on course to overwhelm U.S. health system before Biden takes office
					

The country’s health care system is already buckling under the load of the resurgent outbreak that’s approaching 10 million cases nationwide.




					www.politico.com


----------



## Teaboy (Nov 11, 2020)

Given the all consuming nature of the US election its hardly surprising that the pandemic has been pushed down the agenda.  When that happens its only natural that people just revert to normal behaviour.  

I'm glad we don't have a general election coming up though Brexit could easily do the same.


----------



## elbows (Nov 11, 2020)

I dont see the current US viral surge as having much to do with recent events and mood music though, state inaction by certain governors has been one of the main dynamics in play there all the way through this pandemic.


----------



## HAL9000 (Nov 11, 2020)

elbows said:


> I dont see the current US viral surge as having much to do with recent events and mood music though, state inaction by certain governors has been one of the main dynamics in play there all the way through this pandemic.




I doubt this planning meeting would have much effect, it looks like even this token effort was too much for Pence.   Plus trump anti mask stuff, things are worse than they needed to be



> *Pence absent from Covid-19 planning calls for more than a month*











						Pence absent from Covid-19 planning calls for more than a month
					

As coronavirus cases spike upwards, the vice president’s task force is less active than before.




					www.politico.com


----------



## SpookyFrank (Nov 11, 2020)

miss direct said:


> I have a question about numbers. Turkey's death figures have been consistently at 70 something for weeks. Yesterday that shifted up to 80 something, which I predict will be the case for a few weeks. What is the probability of those numbers actually being accurate?



Although outbreaks rarely show an extended 'plateau' phase, it might be what you'd observe at a large scale if multiple smaller outbreaks were happening, each on a different time scale.


----------



## The39thStep (Nov 11, 2020)

From November 23rd Spain will require a of covid test within 72hours of arriving for all passengers from high risk countries


----------



## kabbes (Nov 12, 2020)

JPMorgan have a take on the European situation.  Worth a read, if you're interested in these things.  I'll break it over two posts.



> *COVID-19: Will Europe reopen for Christmas?*
> ​
> By David Mackie
> 
> ...


----------



## kabbes (Nov 12, 2020)

> *The key role of mobility*
> We know for sure that if the average number of daily contacts between individuals declines by enough, then new COVID-19 infections can be brought down to manageable levels. We saw this clearly in the first infection wave in the spring when government restrictions, and increased caution on the part of individuals, caused a sharp decline in daily contacts that turned the tide on new infections. The lag between the imposition of lockdowns and new infections averaged around 16 days.
> 
> The theory behind this is fairly straightforward. The reproduction number – which determines whether new infections are rising, stable, or falling – is driven by three things. First, the average number of daily contacts between individuals in the population. Second, the number of days during which infected individuals can infect others. And third, the probability of infection when in contact with an infectious individual. The critical role of daily contacts – which we proxy by Google mobility data – can be seen clearly in the first COVID-19 infection wave, when a very sharp decline in Google mobility corresponded with a very dramatic decline in reproduction numbers across countries. (We use the retail and recreation component of the Google data as our proxy for daily contacts.)
> ...


----------



## miss direct (Nov 12, 2020)

New regulations in Turkey. Over 65s are on curfew in major cities (4pm to 8am although this varies by region). Smoking in public completely banned. Step by step edging back to more restrictions. Poor over 65s. Funny thing is, they don't ban visiting each other in homes...


----------



## elbows (Nov 12, 2020)

kabbes said:


> JPMorgan have a take on the European situation.  Worth a read, if you're interested in these things.  I'll break it over two posts.



Interesting stuff, cheers. I wish they had used some better data in places though, eg their figure for how many days from lockdown to the peak in daily UK deaths seems to rely on the daily reported number rather than deaths by date of death, leading to quite a large difference. So they have 26 days but with the data I use its more like 16-17 days. Plus we know from previous mobility data that really huge changes in the UK began a week before actual lockdown.


----------



## bellaozzydog (Nov 13, 2020)

2808 deaths in 7 days in the U.K.





__





						England Summary | Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK
					

Official Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease situation dashboard with latest data in the UK.




					coronavirus.data.gov.uk
				




This is insanity


----------



## Johnny Doe (Nov 13, 2020)

Harry Smiles said:


> So, considering whether to take the family to Tenerife for Xmas, if the 'non-essential travel' advice is lifted and normal travel insurance is therefore available. Can anyone who has spent more time looking at this comment on their much lower cases per million people? Less testing, more testing? Is the relevant metric actually active cases as a % of the population?
> View attachment 235474
> 
> 
> ...



Updated figures, active cases down in Tenerife.....yay or nay?


----------



## kabbes (Nov 13, 2020)

How sure are you that you won’t have it and thus be banned from travel?


----------



## Supine (Nov 13, 2020)

Harry Smiles said:


> Updated figures, active cases down in Tenerife.....yay or nay?



You'd better hope flying isn't still banned when you want to go


----------



## Johnny Doe (Nov 13, 2020)

kabbes said:


> How sure are you that you won’t have it and thus be banned from travel?



Not at all as yet, to be considered nearer the time



Supine said:


> You'd better hope flying isn't still banned when you want to go



Well, quite. If it's legal and possible to get insurance in a month's time, to leave on or around 18th Dec, it's a maybe....


----------



## kabbes (Nov 13, 2020)

Harry Smiles said:


> Not at all as yet, to be considered nearer the time


Then you’d need to be willing to lose any money you’d paid for the holiday.  I doubt insurance will cover it.


----------



## Teaboy (Nov 13, 2020)

Honestly I think Internal travel at the moment is a bit daft.   I was banging on about this at the start of summer and sure as night follows day our numbers went through the roof after the holiday season.  It also seems like this particularly virulent strain of Covid we have causing chaos at the moment came from Spain and brought back by tourists. The summer holiday season certainly seems to have killed a lot.

I love travel.  Its my favourite thing but I've just written this period off.  It makes me very sad but we are where we are.  I've not been in the UK for NYE since 2002 and it really upsets me that I can't go on my favourite holiday of the year but we are where we are.

Its not about risk to me.  I know I'm very low risk.


----------



## Johnny Doe (Nov 13, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Honestly I think Internal travel at the moment is a bit daft.   I was banging on about this at the start of summer and sure as night follows day our numbers went through the roof after the holiday season.  It also seems like this particularly virulent strain of Covid we have causing chaos at the moment came from Spain and brought back by tourists. The summer holiday season certainly seems to have killed a lot.
> 
> I love travel.  Its my favourite thing but I've just written this period off.  It makes me very sad but we are where we are.  I've not been in the UK for NYE since 2002 and it really upsets me that I can't go on my favourite holiday of the year but we are where we are.
> 
> Its not about risk to me.  I know I'm very low risk.



Yeah, I see that. For me, if I can  spend 2 weeks outdoors by a pool with my kids, I hope I can avoid a repeat of lockdown my autistic boy smashing TVs (last one was his neurotypical brother to be fair), pulling doors off hinges and putting holes in plasterboard walls. 

'Just staying home' doesn't look the same for everyone.


----------



## Johnny Doe (Nov 13, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Then you’d need to be willing to lose any money you’d paid for the holiday.  I doubt insurance will cover it.



Again, to be factored in. Cheers for the reminder to look around at insurance policies - it's a very good point


----------



## kabbes (Nov 13, 2020)

Harry Smiles said:


> Again, to be factored in. Cheers for the reminder to look around at insurance policies - it's a very good point


The cover exists but expect to pay for it.  The insurer has to assume that you will have a good chance of needing to cancel, and will charge accordingly.


----------



## Teaboy (Nov 13, 2020)

Harry Smiles said:


> Yeah, I see that. For me, if I can  spend 2 weeks outdoors by a pool with my kids, I hope I can avoid a repeat of lockdown my autistic boy smashing TVs (last one was his neurotypical brother to be fair), pulling doors off hinges and putting holes in plasterboard walls.
> 
> 'Just staying home' doesn't look the same for everyone.



Yeah I get that.  Its not going on holiday that concerns me, its the international travel bit.  You gotta do what's right for your family though.  There are no easy answers in all this.


----------



## frogwoman (Nov 13, 2020)

Ironically going on a plane is probably safer than some pubs at the moment. Wouldn't do it at the moment though but you've got to do what's right for your family I think.


----------



## Johnny Doe (Nov 13, 2020)

Harry Smiles said:


> Yeah, I see that. For me, if I can  spend 2 weeks outdoors by a pool with my kids, I hope I can avoid a repeat of lockdown my autistic boy smashing TVs (last one was his neurotypical brother to be fair), pulling doors off hinges and putting holes in plasterboard walls.
> 
> 'Just staying home' doesn't look the same for everyone.



No need for the sadface frogwoman , though appreciate it. These were incidents that occurred over a long summer, with summer holiday preceded by school closures.  and generally our lives are good and my kids are happy. 2 weeks with nothing open and likely weather which means outside isn't a daily, all-day long proposition though, needs some planning.


----------



## Teaboy (Nov 13, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Ironically going on a plane is probably safer than some pubs at the moment. Wouldn't do it at the moment though but you've got to do what's right for your family I think.



Well, the pubs are pretty safe in England at the moment.

When me and my g/f almost certainly got Covid (no tests available etc) it was on a plane.  Guy in row behind choking over us for an hour.  I'd sooner take my chances in a pub, not that I have mind.  Inside anyway.

If you're in a pub or wherever on the ground you can always get up and leave.  In a plane you just have to sit there and get coughed on unless its a very empty plane.  

Anyway, we digress.


----------



## Teaboy (Nov 13, 2020)

dp


----------



## Johnny Doe (Nov 15, 2020)

kabbes said:


> The cover exists but expect to pay for it.  The insurer has to assume that you will have a good chance of needing to cancel, and will charge accordingly.



Haven't seen the costs yet, or checked the smallprint but Jet2's insurance claims to cover much of the areas of concern:


----------



## Hyperdark (Nov 15, 2020)

Are you sure that as someone residing in a country with such awfull numbers of cases and deaths that the Canary Islanders want you around?, or dont you care as long as its legal?


----------



## The39thStep (Nov 15, 2020)

My flight back to Portugal


----------



## Johnny Doe (Nov 15, 2020)

Hyperdark said:


> Are you sure that as someone residing in a country with such awfull numbers of cases and deaths that the Canary Islanders want you around?, or dont you care as long as its legal?



I do , but isn't the testing meant to mitigate that and allow an area that needs tourism revenue to attract it?


----------



## Badgers (Nov 15, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> My flight back to PortugalView attachment 238892View attachment 238893


Why sit so close to that other passenger?  

Got the whole plane to the two of you


----------



## The39thStep (Nov 15, 2020)

Badgers said:


> Why sit so close to that other passenger?
> 
> Got the whole plane to the two of you


Crazy isnt it? There were about ten people on the flight . I booked extra legroom  in a rush both ways as I only had 45 mins to conform with the hospital that I could make the covid test on Monday and then the operation. he asked the steward if he could move to extra legroom after the flight took off. What I did notice was he had a mask that velcro'd at the base of the neck which i really could have done with as the elastic on mine caused the stitches behind my ear to start bleeding, in the end I ask the steward for a plaster  and used that to stick the mask on my cheekbone like they did in the operation.


----------



## 2hats (Nov 15, 2020)

Badgers said:


> Why sit so close to that other passenger?


You can always rely on the Ryanair passenger seating algorithm to provide the most perverse solution in any situation.


----------



## The39thStep (Nov 15, 2020)

Just catching up on news here in Portugal . There have been some small demos and protests in Lisbon and Porto over restaurant closures at the weekend by owners and staff .Mainly masked and socially distanced and not infiltrated by the loony conspiracists thank heavens .  The constitution, agreed following the revolution, allows demonstrations  and parliament would have to agree to a state of emergency to suspend protests which would be opposed by the Left Bloc , Communist Party and possibly sections of the Socialist Party . The issue here is sufficient compensation for wage loss .


----------



## frogwoman (Nov 15, 2020)

8 Kenyan doctors lost to COVID-19 in 7 days


----------



## Supine (Nov 15, 2020)

Interesting mobility chart comparing a few countries.


----------



## HAL9000 (Nov 16, 2020)

Badgers said:


> Why sit so close to that other passenger?
> 
> Got the whole plane to the two of you



it could be random or might be weight and balance.   In 2009, Ryanair rules were..




> In order to maintain a 25 minutes turn around Ryanair uses a simplified loadsheet stating:
> 
> Rule 1: Mandatory: With 177 pax or less fwd rows 3 and 4 must be blocked
> Rule 2: Optional: Both aft and fwd balance limits may be extended by 0,4 units for ZFW and TOW, provided:
> ...







__





						Ryanair Weight and Balance Issues? - PPRuNe Forums
					

Passengers & SLF (Self Loading Freight) - Ryanair Weight and Balance Issues? - I had the misfortune tonight to fly Ryanair from EGSS to LEMG. I see they have reduced their baggage allowance from the normal 20kg to 15kg per passenger and this does not seem simply to be a way of squeezing out a...



					www.pprune.org
				




So maybe Ryanair have got a COVID19 weight and balance rule?


----------



## HAL9000 (Nov 16, 2020)

In the USA, some covid patients insist covid is fake



Spoiler: its a bit depressing, so I put it behind a spoiler






> *South Dakota Nurse: Dying COVID Patients Think It’s Fake*
> 
> Doering says some of her patients are also in denial, willing to believe almost anything else has made them so sick. “People want it to be influenza, they want it to be pneumonia, we’ve even had people say, ‘I think it could be lung cancer,’” she said. The nurse said that when she offers to hook some patients up with family by FaceTime for a last conversation, they say, ‘No, because I’m doing fine.’” She said the attitude is taking a toll on health-care workers. ‘It’s like a movie where the credits never roll,” she said.


----------



## Cloo (Nov 17, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Ironically going on a plane is probably safer than some pubs at the moment. Wouldn't do it at the moment though but you've got to do what's right for your family I think.


My parents will be flying back from Slovakia in about a month - hopefully will be pretty empty, but it does sound like flights are fairly safe, especially if everyone wears masks, which Slovaks are likely to do because they actually have consideration for other people.


----------



## elbows (Nov 18, 2020)

This is the latest I have in regards large European countries number of covid-19 patients in hospital.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Nov 18, 2020)

Blimey, for once the UK is 'currently' doing OK compared to those others, France & Italy have fairly similiar populations to the UK, Spain is over 20m less, adjust that for population, and Spain would be way up. 

What a mess it is across Europe.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Nov 18, 2020)




----------



## elbows (Nov 18, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Blimey, for once the UK is 'currently' doing OK compared to those others, France & Italy have fairly similiar populations to the UK, Spain is over 20m less, adjust that for population, and Spain would be way up.
> 
> What a mess it is across Europe.



And now New York isn't messing around keeping schools open when strong measures seem pertinent!









						Covid: US records quarter of a million deaths from coronavirus
					

America has a higher death toll and more coronavirus infections than any other country.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## danny la rouge (Nov 19, 2020)

Anyone got access to the Times story about Covid having been in Italy since September ‘19? I can only see the headline.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Nov 19, 2020)

danny la rouge said:


> Anyone got access to the Times story about Covid having been in Italy since September ‘19? I can only see the headline.



Sorry, no, but there's some grim posts updating about the situation on this page of the Italy thread -









						il virus: covid-19 in italy
					

Well thats the thing about novel viruses, we dont tend to notice they are there unless they cause an outbreak large enough to make the hospital numbers get so bad that the event stands out and gets investigated properly. And during winter flu seasons the hospital system is quite used to seeing...




					www.urban75.net


----------



## Combustible (Nov 19, 2020)

danny la rouge said:


> Anyone got access to the Times story about Covid having been in Italy since September ‘19? I can only see the headline.



Not the times article, but the journal article is here

The % of positive cases in September 2019 of those sampled is rather high (14%), which might suggest some sort of laboratory contamination, rather than being real. On the other hand this wasn't a random sample, but from people participating in a lung cancer trial presumably spending quite a bit of time in hospitals, so it could have coincided with an early cluster.


----------



## danny la rouge (Nov 19, 2020)

Thanks 👍


----------



## The39thStep (Nov 19, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Blimey, for once the UK is 'currently' doing OK compared to those others, France & Italy have fairly similiar populations to the UK, Spain is over 20m less, adjust that for population, and Spain would be way up.
> 
> What a mess it is across Europe.


I’ve read several articles this week on  comparisons with other countries . I always thought the R rate was key but these articles deal in total numbers / deaths  and then infections/ deaths per thousand . What’s the best measurement?


----------



## miss direct (Nov 19, 2020)

Turkey is back to part time curfews with a complicated set of measures. At weekends the whole country is on curfew from 8pm to 10am. Schools are closed, teaching online. 

Over 65s are only allowed out Monday to Friday between 10 and 1pm, under 20s are only allowed on Monday to Friday between 1 and 4pm.


----------



## Mation (Nov 19, 2020)

Combustible said:


> Not the times article, but the journal article is here
> 
> The % of positive cases in September 2019 of those sampled is rather high (14%), which might suggest some sort of laboratory contamination, rather than being real. On the other hand this wasn't a random sample, but from people participating in a lung cancer trial presumably spending quite a bit of time in hospitals, so it could have coincided with an early cluster.


That study reports that 11.6% (111 out of 959) of the samples tested positive for antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 (not 14%). Samples were collected between September 2019 and February 2020.

The 14% figure they mention is the percentage of samples collected in September 2019 that tested positive (23/162). For October, the figure was 16.3% (27/166).

Their results are supported by other studies they mention, e.g. finding evidence of the virus in sewage samples from Milan and Turin in December 2019. I don't think there's any suggestion of lab contamination (but I've never done that kind of lab work, so I don't know how often that's likely to be a significant factor).


----------



## frogwoman (Nov 19, 2020)

So is that saying it could have originated in Italy?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Nov 19, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Blimey, for once the UK is 'currently' doing OK compared to those others, France & Italy have fairly similiar populations to the UK, Spain is over 20m less, adjust that for population, and Spain would be way up.
> 
> What a mess it is across Europe.


One caveat there. There are clearly differences in counting methods. France recorded far more hospitalisations than the UK in the first wave but significantly fewer deaths, for instance. I know Wales records hospitalistations differently from England, leading to higher apparent numbers for Wales. I suspect something similar is going on when comparing countries across Europe.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Nov 19, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> I’ve read several articles this week on  comparisons with other countries . I always thought the R rate was key but these articles deal in total numbers / deaths  and then infections/ deaths per thousand . What’s the best measurement?


The very best measurement, which has the most time lag on it, is excess deaths. That's the real story. It avoids arguments about dying 'with covid' or 'of covid', it avoids differences in recording (Russia, for instance, excludes some deaths that others include; Belgium tends to include every possible and probable as well as certainties), and it captures the full toll taken by lockdowns, etc.

Not every country has good enough records to do that, but most European countries do.

UK is currently at c.70,000 total excess deaths for this year, most of those in the first wave.

Comparisons for here and now aren't easy, but deaths recorded over the last week, adjusted for population, is a pretty good measure of where a place is at, bearing in mind that there are differences in recording practices, so it's only a very rough indication. Most of Europe is in a right mess, many places far worse this time than in the first wave in some places. That much is clear.


----------



## Mation (Nov 19, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> So is that saying it could have originated in Italy?


Not necessarily. Just that it seems to have been circulating there and perhaps elsewhere before December 2019; well before the first known case in Italy, in February 2020, at least. They also cite the case in Paris of positive test samples (taken in December 2019), and a Harvard study of satellite data from above Wuhan, showing an increase in traffic to hospitals from some time in autumn 2019.  So perhaps it might have been in other countries, too.

Edited as I meant to quote Froggy, rather than myself


----------



## Combustible (Nov 19, 2020)

Mation said:


> The 14% figure they mention is the percentage of samples collected in September 2019 that tested positive (23/162). For October, the figure was 16.3% (27/166).



That was what I said, 14% of the September 2019 samples were positive, which is a rather high number, and would indicate a significant outbreak at a considerably earlier stage, a long way from Wuhan. In this context there is a big difference between Sept 2019 and Dec 2019, especially with the numbers implied by this study. FWIW the satellite study from Wuhan has been pretty widely criticized, even though it was published, and they do seem to have quite heavily cherry-picked their data.


----------



## Mation (Nov 19, 2020)

Combustible said:


> That was what I said, 14% of the September 2019 samples were positive,


 My bad - I misread what you wrote.


> which is a rather high number, and would indicate a significant outbreak at a considerably earlier stage, a long way from Wuhan. In this context there is a big difference between Sept 2019 and Dec 2019, especially with the numbers implied by this study.


Yup. It would need to be replicated.





> FWIW the satellite study from Wuhan has been pretty widely criticized, even though it was published, and they do seem to have quite heavily cherry-picked their data.


That... doesn't seem very surprising.


----------



## teuchter (Nov 19, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> I’ve read several articles this week on  comparisons with other countries . I always thought the R rate was key but these articles deal in total numbers / deaths  and then infections/ deaths per thousand . What’s the best measurement?


What do you want to measure and why?


----------



## The39thStep (Nov 19, 2020)

teuchter said:


> What do you want to measure and why?


I suppose the likely hood of catching it


----------



## teuchter (Nov 19, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> I suppose the likely hood of catching it


Then I'd say you want to be looking at current cases per head wherever you are.


----------



## teuchter (Nov 19, 2020)

A bit of an overview of the current state of things in Europe. Total deaths normalised by population.

NB France has now overtaken Sweden. And Sweden is not so far off the EU average.


----------



## teuchter (Nov 19, 2020)

Sweden's Scandi neighbours continue to do much much better though.


----------



## spring-peeper (Nov 19, 2020)

A wrongful death lawsuit tied to COVID-19 infections at Tyson Foods’ largest pork processing plant accuses the meatpacking giant of ordering employees to come to work while supervisors privately bet money on how many would get infected with the deadly coronavirus.
remember: donald forced employees such as these back to work... then management had ghoul pools betting on staff getting sick... from which five employees died from COVID.









						Tyson Foods Accused Of Betting Money On How Many Workers Would Contract COVID-19
					

The lawsuit is tied to an Iowa pork plant where more than 1,000 workers became sick and at least five died of the virus after being forced to report for work.




					www.huffingtonpost.ca


----------



## alex_ (Nov 19, 2020)

teuchter said:


> View attachment 239560
> 
> A bit of an overview of the current state of things in Europe. Total deaths normalised by population.
> 
> NB France has now overtaken Sweden. And Sweden is not so far off the EU average.



peru and equador sneaking into the eu !


----------



## elbows (Nov 19, 2020)

Fez909 said:


> If you look at Italy's numbers, they've got around 4k infections currently. It's taken 11 days to get there from the position we're in.
> 
> If you look at how they got there, their figures grew by about 40% a day for about half that time, then 20%-25% since then.
> 
> ...



I am quoting this post that you made on March 6th because of tonights programme about the failures in approach and timing of the lockdown 1 decisions. It was rather heavily focussed on the modelling side of the story, and was nothing like the full story as a result, although glimpses of several other sorts of establishment/expert/orthodox failure were on brief display throughout the programme too. Anyway, one modeller made clear that he was the one who finally looked at the right data and realised their 5-6 day doubling time estimates were wrong and that it was more like 3 days. That was on March 17th. 11 days after your post! And 11 days was also your estimate at the time for how far behind Italy we were. Its a shame the experts were 11 days behind you!

Plenty of people came across in a bad way in the programme, as they bloody well should. Including a behavioural scientist who tells the programme all sorts of reasonable things about her thoughts when watching mass sports gatherings, that they should not be happening, but is then shown in a news clip of the time repeating the government justifications for keeping such events going. And then tells this programme that she said that not because she believed it, but for reasons of maintaining public faith in the governments stated approach of the time. Well fucking done, that's exactly why gobby people like me did not take advice to 'trust the government' at early stages of this pandemic as being advice that was even fit to wipe my arse with. And one of the reasons I spent a whole load of time learning about pandemics many years ago, because narrow, stale, dogmatic, limited, dont rock the boat experts cannot be relied upon to know and tell it like it is at the best of times, let alone in moments of crisis.









						BBC Two - Lockdown 1.0 - Following the Science?
					

Scientists behind the scenes discuss what really happened in the run up to first lockdown.




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## The39thStep (Nov 20, 2020)

Weekend restrictions now applied ( initially for two weks) to the South . All bars/cafes and restuarants to close at 1pm Saturday to 6.00 am Monday and a general confinement at home during the same timespan except for work/medical/exercise. Some shops are open at the weekend. General message is 'No its not illegal to go out and buy bread or milk but please stockup so you dont have to' . Local cafes are doing lunch from 10.00 am Saturday to takeaway. Cafes and bars also have to close at 11.pm during the week. The left parties ie left Bloc and PCP voted against the renewal of the State of Emergency saying the economic package wasn't sufficient, still got passed though.


----------



## elbows (Nov 20, 2020)

Well I guess this is what happens in a country that has avoided really high incidence levels and takes protective measures and outbreak contact tracing really seriously, and then someone lies about a detail of their behaviour....










						Covid: Pizza worker's 'lie' forced South Australia lockdown
					

South Australia went into lockdown because a man with Covid-19 misled health officials, police say.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> *South Australia decided to enter a state-wide lockdown based on a lie told by a man with Covid-19 about his link to a pizza shop, police say.*
> The strict lockdown began on Wednesday after the state detected 36 infections, including its first locally acquired cases since April.
> But this would have been avoided if the man had told the truth, that he worked shifts at the shop, officials said.
> He said he only went there to buy a pizza.
> ...


----------



## frogwoman (Nov 20, 2020)

Mexico deaths pass 100,000 as fragments found in Victorian sewage
					

Obrador rejects criticism as political attacks; Canada fears big rise in cases could overwhelm hospitals; Italy records 37,242 new cases




					www.theguardian.com
				



Mexico has had 100,000 deaths and the leader is saying he doesn't need to change the strategy


----------



## Yossarian (Nov 22, 2020)

An unusual move in Hong Kong, where cases are starting to rise - to encourage people to get tested, everybody who tests positive for COVID will be given $5,000 HKD, around £500, by the government.









						All virus patients to receive HK$5,000 handout - RTHK
					

Health Secretary Sophia Chan says the government will begin giving a one-off HK$5,000 handout to everyone in the SAR who tests positive for the corona...




					news.rthk.hk


----------



## elbows (Nov 24, 2020)

France are being more cautious and realistic with their easing of things by the sounds of it, now that they think they have peaked, although I cannot fully compare their plans with Englands until I see which regions are in which tiers in England.









						Coronavirus: French lockdown to ease after second peak passes
					

Non-essential shops will reopen this weekend but bars and restaurants will stay closed into January.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				












						France announces limited lockdown easing with Europe wary of festive surge
					

Germany and Spain look to limit Christmas gatherings as Macron unveils tough post-lockdown restrictions




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## The39thStep (Nov 24, 2020)

Portugal now has a regional four tier system in addition to four national states ( which affect the constitution). The weekend stay at home ( we only had one ) now lifted from the Algarve . Restrictions imposed on travelling across counties for the public holidays first week of December . Everything reviewed forthrightly .


----------



## ice-is-forming (Nov 24, 2020)

Australia is opening up most of it's internal borders on Dec 1st, as we've reached a point of no community transmission for 30 days in Victoria and NSW. Although in Qld I think it's been 70 days and in WA even longer.









						Sydneysiders can enter Queensland from December 1, Victorians set to follow suit
					

Queensland's Premier says the state's border will open to all of New South Wales from December 1, after NSW recorded four weeks of no new mystery COVID-19 cases. A decision will be made on Victoria tomorrow. Look back over Tuesday's live blog.




					www.google.com


----------



## miss direct (Nov 25, 2020)

Turkey has finally agreed to release actual case numbers (up until now they had only released "patient" numbers, ie those in hospital with the virus...) Gone from 7,000 ish yesterday, to over 28,000 today. Twats.


----------



## editor (Nov 25, 2020)

Here's a handy link to use the next time some loon goes on about 'unsafe rushed vaccines' 










						COVID-19 vaccines were developed in record time – but are these game-changers safe?
					

Because Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines have been developed in record time, many wonder whether companies cut corners or compromised safety.




					theconversation.com


----------



## elbows (Nov 25, 2020)

Situation with 'number of Covid-19 patients in hospital' has evolved in the places I was tracking via a graph previously, so here is an updated version.


----------



## Supine (Nov 26, 2020)

German update. More than 400 deaths a day. They had been doing well, but winter is hitting Europe hard. 









						Fact check: How deadly is the coronavirus in Germany? | DW | 26.11.2020
					

Over 400 people died in one day in Germany as a result of COVID-19, marking a new grim record. But what does the death toll mean in the bigger picture of the country's pandemic? DW Fact Check reports.




					www.dw.com


----------



## 2hats (Nov 28, 2020)

(whole thread worth reading)


----------



## Hollis (Nov 28, 2020)

This seems a somewhat complex article someone stuck up on facebook... though possibily lots of good stuff on the efficacy of different interventions..  Apologies if its been linked already  - I don't really  follow this thread..

Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions


----------



## miss direct (Nov 28, 2020)

Turkey had 30,000 new cases today.


----------



## kabbes (Nov 29, 2020)

Hollis said:


> This seems a somewhat complex article someone stuck up on facebook... though possibily lots of good stuff on the efficacy of different interventions..  Apologies if its been linked already  - I don't really  follow this thread..
> 
> Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions


Excellent stuff.

This is the key results table with explanation for those too lazy to click on the link and the tl;dr brigade:


The left-hand panel shows the combined 95% confidence intervals of Δ_Rt_ for the most effective interventions across all included territories. The heatmap in the right-hand panel shows the corresponding _Z_-scores of measure effectiveness as determined by the four different methods. Grey indicates no significantly positive effect. NPIs are ranked according to the number of methods agreeing on their impacts, from top (significant in all methods) to bottom (ineffective in all analyses). L1 themes are colour-coded as in Supplementary Fig. 1.


----------



## kabbes (Nov 29, 2020)

Their key point, by the way, is that all these measures have some effect but timing and context of their introduction is just as important and they can be done in combination.

Interesting to compare small and mass gathering cancellation though


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Nov 29, 2020)

isn't that our famous operation money shot on the penultimate line?

edit: typos


----------



## Mation (Nov 29, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Excellent stuff.
> 
> This is the key results table with explanation for those too lazy to click on the link and the tl;dr brigade:
> View attachment 240910
> ...


The tl;dr brigade?


----------



## two sheds (Nov 29, 2020)

Does national lockdown have less effect than would have perhaps been expected?

Eta: No on second thoughts I can't understand those charts at all - lockdown was surely responsible for the bulk of the huge reduction in cases shown on the graphs over the summer.

Eta eta: Unless lockdown includes all those separate strands which contribute to reducing R

Eta eta eta: aaaargh


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Nov 29, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Does national lockdown have less effect than would have perhaps been expected?
> 
> Eta: No on second thoughts I can't understand those charts at all - lockdown was surely responsible for the bulk of the huge reduction in cases shown on the graphs over the summer.
> 
> ...


from my looking at it national lockdown did include all the lines above it (bar international flights for border controls)


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Nov 29, 2020)

Grim.


----------



## kabbes (Nov 29, 2020)

Mation said:


> The tl;dr brigade?


Those who won’t read it because it’s too long for them.


----------



## Mation (Nov 29, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Those who won’t read it because it’s too long for them.


Yeah. It was just very dismissive.


----------



## kabbes (Nov 29, 2020)

Mation said:


> Yeah. It was just very dismissive.


I overshot then, I was just going for a bit dismissive


----------



## Mation (Nov 29, 2020)

kabbes said:


> I overshot then, I was just going for a bit dismissive


----------



## prunus (Nov 30, 2020)

Wear a mask folks 

Accidental mask effect experiment in Kansas:

Mask mandate followed or opted out from in different Kansas counties

“The Kansas mask requirement went into effect on July 3, when coronavirus cases were rising across the state. But 81 counties opted out of the mandate, as permitted by state law. The other 24 counties — which account for the majority of the state's population — chose to require that masks be worn in public places.

The CDC and the Kansas Department of Health and Environment analyzed trends in county-level cases before the mandate went into effect and two months afterward. Though rates were considerably higher in the 24 counties that required masks, over the two-month study period they brought the growth of cases under control and even reduced them. The counties that didn't require masks continued to see their cases increase.

On average, the counties that required masks saw a 6% reduction in cases (calculated as a seven-day rolling average of new daily cases per capita). In contrast, the counties that opted out saw a 100% increase.”


----------



## miss direct (Nov 30, 2020)

Turkeys going for stricter curfews now. Every night from 9pm to 5am and all weekend from Friday 9pm to 5am. Even stricter than back in the spring. Ugh.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 1, 2020)

__





						Photo of US doctor comforting Covid patient goes viral
					





					amp.rte.ie
				





This really got to me. 
Society owes so much to the people facing this fucking virus day in day out. The patients in ICU. The nurses and doctors... 

It makes me so angry to think that our government is weighing up this with people wanting to open fucking pubs 
😡😡


----------



## Badgers (Dec 1, 2020)

Going well then...


----------



## The39thStep (Dec 1, 2020)

Badgers said:


> Going well then...
> 
> View attachment 241357


In one foreign paper , covering this pro remain incident , orgy translated as ‘legs in the air’


----------



## Cid (Dec 2, 2020)

Educate and actively communicate with the public eh? Well that would have been an easy slice of the pie. Pity the government fucked up and took the collective finger off instead.


----------



## elbows (Dec 2, 2020)

Ski resorts are a hot topic on the continent at the moment, for reasons that should be obvious to anyone that remembers the early days of the pandemic.









						Coronavirus: France to impose border checks to stop skiing abroad
					

Swiss ski resorts are open and Prime Minister Jean Castex says he wants to stop people going.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Numbers (Dec 2, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> View attachment 241261
> 
> 
> 
> ...


He was on GMB this morning, 260 or so days straight he’s worked.


----------



## elbows (Dec 2, 2020)

Via the 13:04 entry of the BBC live updates page, the WHO has changed its mask recommendations:



> As the pandemic continues, the World Health Organization (WHO) has updated its recommendations for the use of masks in areas where the virus is spreading.
> 
> In updates today, the UN body advises "that the general public should wear a non-medical mask in indoor (eg shops, shared workplaces, schools) or outdoor settings where physical distancing of at least one metre cannot be maintained."
> 
> ...





			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55155953


----------



## David Clapson (Dec 2, 2020)

Has this thread considered the Danish study which said masks have little benefit? The BMJ shot it down.  The curious case of the Danish mask study  But the Spectator lapped it up Landmark Danish study finds no significant effect for facemask wearers | The Spectator


----------



## Supine (Dec 2, 2020)

David Clapson said:


> Has this thread considered the Danish study which said masks have little benefit? The BMJ shot it down.  The curious case of the Danish mask study  But the Spectator lapped it up Landmark Danish study finds no significant effect for facemask wearers | The Spectator



I've just considered it. I now have an even lower admiration for the quality of the Spectator.


----------



## Mation (Dec 3, 2020)

David Clapson said:


> Has this thread considered the Danish study which said masks have little benefit? The BMJ shot it down.  The curious case of the Danish mask study  But the Spectator lapped it up Landmark Danish study finds no significant effect for facemask wearers | The Spectator


The Danish study didn't say masks have little benefit. It did say this (a direct quote from the publication):





> _Limitation_*: *Inconclusive results, missing data, variable adherence, patient-reported findings on home tests, no blinding, and *no assessment of whether masks could decrease disease transmission from mask wearers to others*.
> 
> _Conclusion_*: The recommendation *to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures *did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among wearers by more than 50%* in a community with modest infection rates, some degree of social distancing, and uncommon general mask use. The data were compatible with lesser degrees of self-protection.


My bold.


----------



## StoneRoad (Dec 3, 2020)

Just took a look at the world-o-meters tally (16:30 GMT on 3rd December 2020).

fuck me, they're bad, very bad.

65 million plus cases
1.5 million plus dead.

The new cases graph has leveled off, but at a figure in excess of 500k a day ...

Looking at the national totals, as the UK passed 60,000 dead today.

Iran has today joined the 1 million case club (the 14th member, after Poland became the 13th a few days ago)

USA leads the table with over 14.3 cases (and 280,210 deaths).

I didn't have the heart/nerve to look in any greater detail.


----------



## frogwoman (Dec 3, 2020)

COVID-19 has now killed 4 times more than malaria did last year and more than tuberculosis as well

Someone is dying from covid every 9 seconds apparently.    









						Italy imposes Christmas travel curbs – as it happened
					

This blog is now closed. We’ve launched a new blog at the link below:




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Chairman Meow (Dec 3, 2020)

Can confirm that Western Australia has had no community transmission since April. The State was going to re-open the border to people from NSW and Victoria next week (they currently have to quarantine for 14 days), but this is now under discussion because there was one case of Covid in Sydney this week, from a cleaner in a quarantine hotel who took public transport while infected. So if that causes a cluster, the border will stay shut. The border is open to people from  TAS, QLD, ACT and NT though. For now anyway, SA aren't allowed to enter yet.


----------



## Supine (Dec 3, 2020)

Chairman Meow said:


> there was one case of Covid in Sydney this week, from a cleaner in a quarantine hotel who took public transport while infected. So if that causes a cluster, the border will stay shut.



Now that's what I call tracking and hopefully tracing


----------



## ice-is-forming (Dec 5, 2020)

Chairman Meow said:


> Can confirm that Western Australia has had no community transmission since April. The State was going to re-open the border to people from NSW and Victoria next week (they currently have to quarantine for 14 days), but this is now under discussion because there was one case of Covid in Sydney this week, from a cleaner in a quarantine hotel who took public transport while infected. So if that causes a cluster, the border will stay shut. The border is open to people from  TAS, QLD, ACT and NT though. For now anyway, SA aren't allowed to enter yet.



The company I work for is based in Perth, that's where the directors and managers are. It's been great knowing that none of them are gonna turn up unannounced in our queensland office since March. But next week the head honcho is flying over. Que panic, tidying up and people looking for their 'corporate' clothes and enclosed shoes


----------



## teuchter (Dec 5, 2020)

A couple of things of note...

UK appears to be doing better than EU average at present (in contrast to the first wave)
What's happened to Switzerland?
There's a bunch of eastern european countries suffering death rates that are substantially worse than what UK had during the first wave.


----------



## Chairman Meow (Dec 6, 2020)

Errrr, my boss is flying Perth to Cairns tomorrow for the first time since March ‘to sort them all out’ as he puts it.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Dec 6, 2020)

Chairman Meow said:


> Errrr, my boss is flying Perth to Cairns tomorrow for the first time since March ‘to sort them all out’ as he puts it.



Hahah, not me I'm in Hervey bay but I imagine our WA based bosses saying the same


----------



## 2hats (Dec 6, 2020)




----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 6, 2020)

It's OK, Pfizer has it covered with Viagra_. _


----------



## William of Walworth (Dec 6, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> It's OK, Pfizer has it covered with Viagra_. _



If they worked out how to combine Viagra with Vaccine-gra in a single pill , that would *surely* be the most obvious way to improve take-up of the latter


----------



## Teaboy (Dec 7, 2020)

teuchter said:


> A couple of things of note...
> 
> UK appears to be doing better than EU average at present (in contrast to the first wave)
> What's happened to Switzerland?
> ...



Switzerland?  Ski season?


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Dec 7, 2020)

teuchter said:


> A couple of things of note...
> 
> UK appears to be doing better than EU average at present (in contrast to the first wave)
> What's happened to Switzerland?
> There's a bunch of eastern european countries suffering death rates that are substantially worse than what UK had during the first wave.


Explanation for all three of these will partly be how bad the country's first wave was. There will have been a degree of 'harvesting' in the UK and elsewhere during the first wave, and there will also now be a degree of community protection from people with antibodies, which will reduce the R number. Italy, of course, has had it bad both times, but if you zoom in on Italy's figures, the very worst hit places in the first wave like Bergamo aren't as bad this time, while parts of the south that missed the first wave have caught the second.

It is also probable that the virus has become more contagious. Will be interesting to see antibody test results after the second wave - they're likely to show very high levels in places like Czechia.

A mutation may have made COVID-19 more contagious

Because of this mutation, it could well be that people who were resistant to infection when exposed to it in the first wave are vulnerable to it in this one, which helps to explain the patterns of infection in previously affected places.


----------



## teuchter (Dec 7, 2020)

Teaboy said:


> Switzerland?  Ski season?


Seems a bit early for that. If the ski resorts are opening up now, then maybe you'd expect to see a spike in a few weeks. But the graph suggests that something started to happen more than a month ago.


----------



## elbows (Dec 7, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Seems a bit early for that. If the ski resorts are opening up now, then maybe you'd expect to see a spike in a few weeks. But the graph suggests that something started to happen more than a month ago.



As far as I know they relaxed stuff early after the first wave, and were slow to tighten restrictions again, and resistant to many of them, once it was clear they were experiencing rather a large and widespread second wave.

I dont currently have a nice article to explain all this. I have little bits of the jigsaw in articles like these:

June:









						Switzerland eased lockdown measures too soon, warns top official
					

The head of the Swiss Covid-19 taskforce has warned that the lifting of lockdown restrictions last Friday was premature.




					www.swissinfo.ch
				




Late October:









						COVID second wave floods Swiss hospitals - Riverine Herald
					

Swiss hospitals are in danger of being overwhelmed by coronavirus cases as a second wave of infections sweeps the country.




					www.riverineherald.com.au
				




As for ski resorts, there has been conflict between many European countries like Germany, Italy and France that were keen to shut such things, and some other countries that wanted to keep that stuff going. Switzerlands bad attitude towards pandemic regulations is probably visible in stories about that, eg:

December:





__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com
				






> Bern, which imposed no second nationwide lockdown to control the second wave of coronavirus, has refused to enforce closures of ski resorts. As a result skiing has become an unlikely, but bitter, political faultline dividing European countries as they seek a response to the latest phase of the pandemic. Other European leaders have been barely able to contain their contempt for Switzerland’s recalcitrance. Both the French and Italian prime ministers have directly called the president of Switzerland’s governing federal council to demand it fall into line, officials in Bern told the Financial Times. Switzerland’s parliament this week responded with a motion condemning even the limited measures being rolled out to reduce capacity at ski resorts to 80 per cent as too much. Foremost in EU politicians’ minds are the events of February and March, during the first wave of the pandemic, when Alpine resorts became superspreader clusters. That Switzerland, in keeping its resorts open, may become an economic beneficiary from others’ pain is particularly rankling.


----------



## elbows (Dec 7, 2020)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Because of this mutation, it could well be that people who were resistant to infection when exposed to it in the first wave are vulnerable to it in this one, which helps to explain the patterns of infection in previously affected places.



I disagree, since the G614 version of the virus has been very widespread for a long time. It made up a significant proportion of first wave cases in many places, eg the following charts, where the mutation version you mention is in blue:



			DEFINE_ME
		






And I havent seen any suggestions that the mutation had a negative effect on the immunity picture. eg:



> The other good news, says Baric, is that the structure of the spike proteins on the now-dominant G strain make it more vulnerable to being wiped out by vaccine-induced antibodies. That’s true even though the vaccines were all developed to work against the ancestral D strain. And G is probably more vulnerable to antibodies from past infections as well.



from G614 - the coronavirus strain that will challenge vaccines.  (misleading clickbait title)

We still dont know enough about the immunity picture, and all manner of possibilities exist including the possibility that immune responses to some of the other human coronaviruses may lead to temporary protections against the pandemic virus. If that was the case and some places had other coronavirus outbreaks in the months leading up to the pandemic, a chunk of their populations could have been protected the first time in a way that has since worn off. I dont bet much on any such possibility actually being the case, just that it remains part of the theoretical picture unless later ruled out through increased knowledge.

I certainly dont keel like I need some additional immunity factor to explain what has happened. Because level and geographical spread of infection in the runup to initial large wave of infections, timing and detail of lockdown, timing of easing of restrictions, quality of infection surveillance, size of care homes and the extent to which they were isolated from he pandemic, and timing of reintroduction of measures to cope with 2n wave, and how strong they are seems mostly quite sufficient to explain what has happened in different places all the way through. And even in regions that were badly affected the first time, we are still only talking about fractions of those populations being infected in the first wave and having immunity as a result. No shortage of people without immunity, and many questions remaining about how long that immunity lasts. This doesn't mean that I think there is no interesting immunity picture that is part of the story, just that it isn't absolutely necessary in order to explain whats happened so far, and when discussed it is easy to give it a more prominent role despite a lack of actual supporting evidence that its made much difference.


----------



## Teaboy (Dec 7, 2020)

Well I never.  _Switzerland may become an economic beneficiary from others' pain. _

Isn't that the first line of the constitution and national anthem?


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 9, 2020)

COVID-19 vaccine: UK regulators warn people with history of 'significant' allergic reactions not to have Pfizer/BioNTech jab
					

The Pfizer jab was approved for use last week by the regulator and was rolled out in hospitals on Tuesday.




					www.google.com
				





Ah FUCK.
THat rules me out now.🥺🥺


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 9, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> COVID-19 vaccine: UK regulators warn people with history of 'significant' allergic reactions not to have Pfizer/BioNTech jab
> 
> 
> The Pfizer jab was approved for use last week by the regulator and was rolled out in hospitals on Tuesday.
> ...



Don't worry, other vaccines are coming soon.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 9, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Don't worry, other vaccines are coming soon.




Depends. 
If its the RNA itself then that rules out a lot more vaccines.
If its the delivery method (solution) then maybe other vaccines will have different solutions.


----------



## magneze (Dec 9, 2020)

Quite surprised that this wasn't already known about considering the testing so far.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 9, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> Depends.
> If its the RNA itself then that rules out a lot more vaccines.
> If its the delivery method (solution) then maybe other vaccines will have different solutions.



The Oxford vaccine doesn't use RNA, and that should be approved soon.


----------



## MrSki (Dec 9, 2020)

If only.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 9, 2020)

magneze said:


> Quite surprised that this wasn't already known about considering the testing so far.




Well people who volunteer for vaccine / drug trials tend not to be people with allergies and underlying health conditions.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 9, 2020)

MrSki said:


> If only.





Rock of sense and decency that woman.


----------



## LDC (Dec 9, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> Well people who volunteer for vaccine / drug trials tend not to be people with allergies and underlying health conditions.



Not strictly true, the trials have to have some of them on for validity from what I've been told. There seem to have been plenty on the trial I am on.

The allergic reactions weren't as severe as anaphylactic reaction, and expect it'll be very hard to know what bit of the vaccine or process might have triggered it.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 9, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Not strictly true, the trials have to have some of them on for validity from what I've been told. There seem to have been plenty on the trial I am on.
> 
> The allergic reactions weren't as severe as anaphylactic reaction, and expect it'll be very hard to know what bit of the vaccine or process might have triggered it.




Yes..I did mention that the solution could be the allergen..
I was watching an expert on RTE today who did say that the trials tended to involve people who are young and quite healthy and that people who have allergies and underlying conditions did not seem to get involved in the trials...for obvious reasons. Its the same reason they are leaving pregnant women out of the vaccine...because they have no reference to what can happen as no pregnant women were involved in trials. 

I will be waiting for the Oxford vaccine. I really want to be given a vaccine but I do have a very odd immune system and it has tried to kill me a few times.


----------



## Supine (Dec 9, 2020)

Why do you think the Oxford vaccine would be any safer? Just curious.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 9, 2020)

Supine said:


> Why do you think the Oxford vaccine would be any safer? Just curious.



Its not an RNA vaccine. 
I'm just looking down the line to see what might be ok for someone who has immune issues. 
I don't have any extra info...just that I will have to wait and see.


----------



## Supine (Dec 9, 2020)




----------



## Buddy Bradley (Dec 10, 2020)

“There Was A Pandemic?” What Life Is Like In Countries Without COVID
					

COVID infections are low to nonexistent in several countries, where life looks practically normal. Some people even occasionally forget there’s a pandemic going on.




					www.buzzfeednews.com
				




I guess we win the "Stupidest Island Nation On The Planet" award in 2020, then...


----------



## Chz (Dec 10, 2020)

Buddy Bradley said:


> “There Was A Pandemic?” What Life Is Like In Countries Without COVID
> 
> 
> COVID infections are low to nonexistent in several countries, where life looks practically normal. Some people even occasionally forget there’s a pandemic going on.
> ...


To answer that...


(Admittedly not an island, but Mexico and Canada are doing way better so it's as if they are)


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 10, 2020)

Chz said:


> To answer that...
> 
> 
> (Admittedly not an island, but Mexico and Canada are doing way better so it's as if they are)




Yesterday - 3,265 covid deaths reported, topping 9/11.


----------



## teuchter (Dec 10, 2020)

I hadn't appreciated that the death rate in Germany is now actually approaching the UK's.


----------



## zora (Dec 10, 2020)

^^^ Ah funny, I was literally just starting to write a little update on the situation in Germany. (Actually wrote that in response to someone posting the Merkel video a page or so back, now coming back to complete the post.)

Not looking rosy. Cases seem to have stabilised during their light lockdown, so for a few weeks now, at around 20000 a day, with deaths of around 400-600 a day.
Once again, it seems to have been pretty much Angela Merkel singlehandedly who got the emergency brake in place when cases were rising exponentially in October, otherwise the situation would look more dire still.

I find it all so fascinating, you could fill volumes with the cultural, political and societal differences here in the UK and in Germany and how they have helped and hindered. (I guess about any countries, but these are the ones I have the most insight in.)
Unlike at the beginning, when all the good old-fashioned German thoroughness seemed to help the response to the pandemic, over time the picture has shifted a bit for me.

Digitalisation - Germany is wayyyyyy behind the UK (with new tech, from brick mobiles to tablets to smartphones, I always noticed that Germany were much later adopters, and it's also so noticeable how nearly every business from megacorporation to any self-employed person in the UK has got a good web presence; in Germany you often find a rudimentary entry on some sort of online "yellow pages" and that's it)
So a lot of businesses are not well set up for WFH and seemingly slow to adapt this year, and therefore a lot of unnecessary business contacts going on. 
Same goes for schools. AND local health departments: Praised at the beginning of the pandemic for the good local set-ups, they are now overwhelmed as they are sat waiting by their fax machines...

Efficacy of the Covid-App hampered by (excessive?) data protection concerns.

The level of debate and scrutiny that I missed somewhat in discussions and the political process here, seems also to be potentially slowing down German responsiveness by the so crucial few days in implementing measures. Federalisation maybe not really helping in this respect either.

Testing - It amused me somewhat to follow the debates in the last few months in G, if people could possibly administer a covid-test themselves; a study was being done if teachers were able to do their own antigen tests. And it literally only just seems to have been decided that these antigen tests do not have to be carried out by medical personel only. I was kinda horrified when the whole self-testing thing started here in the UK, and it was just like "there you are, have a go" (with question marks over how reliably these could be carried out by a home user) - but six months on I am thinking Germany is leaning too far the other way. You gotta be a little bit pragmatic about it...

Also wonder if there is still maybe a little bit of the "prevention-paradox" hangover to the effect that some people in Germany, having escaped a horrific first wave, are slow to take it seriously now that the second wave has arrived.

Last but not least, in the last couple of weeks I have heard more and more praise for some of the studies that are being carried out in the UK, in particular the ONS survey and the REACT 1 study. This collaboration between public health and universities and the funding it has apparently received in recent years is now the envy of Germany, and questions are being asked why Germany doesn't have a similar set-up!


----------



## elbows (Dec 10, 2020)

teuchter said:


> I hadn't appreciated that the death rate in Germany is now actually approaching the UK's.



Yeah Germany this time is more like a worse version of what I thought might happen there with the first wave, but didnt. Presumably the success the first time round was a combination of factors that meant their timing ended up much better, that they managed by luck or effort to keep infections out of certain vulnerable settings early on and then benefited from lockdown 1 happening before some tipping points in infections had been reached in the sort of widespread way we saw in the UK. This time around conditions and their measures have been insufficient, have not been enough to prevent deaths from keeping rising, and have only been enough to make the death rise look more like a linear rise than a classic exponential curve type of rise. And thats still an achievement that takes much effort, but its not enough.

Meanwhile in France, where their original timetable for relaxing things after lockdown 2 was more cautious, and in my opinion more appropriate than the UKs, they have decided that things have not reduced enough to enable them to stick to the original best-case version of that relaxation timetable.









						Covid-19: France moves to night-time curfew from 15 December
					

A stay-at-home rule will still end on 15 December, but the new curfew will begin - and include New Year's Eve.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Dec 10, 2020)

I've always been sorry that I couldnt add Germany to the sort of number of Covid-19 hospital patients charts that I use to compare other large European countries, because I dont have that data. But thanks to something I believe someone posted here in recent weeks, I do at least have a source for number of intensive care patients there.





__





						DIVI Intensivregister
					






					www.intensivregister.de
				





I will post the latest version of my UK, Spain, France, Italy hospital graph soon.


----------



## William of Walworth (Dec 10, 2020)

zora -- that was a really fascinating post  @

You've prompted me to ask my friends in Hamburg** how things and them are getting on ... will defintely do this before Xmas.
(and I really should, because that chart above from elbows looks bad ...  )

**one a Hamburg German, her husband (my mate, originally from Brighton!) adopted!


----------



## elbows (Dec 10, 2020)

Number of Covid-19 patients in hospital.


----------



## StoneRoad (Dec 10, 2020)

There's a worrying uptick in that blue line ...


----------



## elbows (Dec 10, 2020)

And I know this is the world thread, but since people may be curious about the UK curve shape recently in that graph I just posted, here is the national makeup of that. For the hospital picture by English region, I already post that to the UK thread, usually several times a week eg most recently            #26,627


----------



## Pingety Pong (Dec 10, 2020)

My mum lives in a small village in Germany. For most of the summer things were more or less back to normal apart from her having to wear a mask inside shops. Then suddenly the numbers exploded and last month, she lost four of her neighbours to Covid within three weeks. That's like a third of her small street all dead. So yes, things seem to have gone downhill pretty rapidly.


----------



## Yossarian (Dec 11, 2020)

Chz said:


> (Admittedly not an island, but Mexico and Canada are doing way better so it's as if they are)



Mexico's not doing any better than the US, possibly slightly worse if anything.

Canada's not doing brilliantly but generally better than the disaster to the south, though it's not always that clear-cut - the death rate in Quebec is twice what it is over the border in Vermont and Maine, while Ontario's is slightly higher than Oregon's.


----------



## Chairman Meow (Dec 11, 2020)

Today's daily stats in WA. I do feel extremely lucky to live here.


----------



## LDC (Dec 11, 2020)

zora said:


> ^^^ Ah funny, I was literally just starting to write a little update on the situation in Germany. (Actually wrote that in response to someone posting the Merkel video a page or so back, now coming back to complete the post.)
> 
> Not looking rosy. Cases seem to have stabilised during their light lockdown, so for a few weeks now, at around 20000 a day, with deaths of around 400-600 a day.
> Once again, it seems to have been pretty much Angela Merkel singlehandedly who got the emergency brake in place when cases were rising exponentially in October, otherwise the situation would look more dire still.
> ...



Thanks, that's really interesting. Have chatted about the response in Germany with someone that lives there and someone from the UK that has spent lots of time there and we had some of the same conclusions.

The culture around health is quite different there, our experience was that it's very professionalized, in terms of people do very little without the advice of a doctor, even to the point of buying OTC painkillers etc. A friend of mine recounted an experience of taking some paracetomol while living in a shared house there and people were shocked she'd just do that without talking to a doctor. There's also a massive alternative (quack) health scene isn't there? Notably they've had quite large anti-vax and anti-lockdown demos that have partly come out of that.


----------



## spring-peeper (Dec 12, 2020)

Alberta, Canada just clued into the fact that the virus is a threat.
They went from no mask to massive restrictions, and the premiere is now declaring it a war on the virus.  (paraphrase)

They decided to make ads to help their people understand the virus.
It is supposedly aimed at the younger portion of their population. 







On a personal level, my district has just increased their restrictions.
Only 10 at an inside gathering.
I was only expecting 9 at Christmas....so, it is all good.


----------



## brogdale (Dec 12, 2020)

Not new news, I know, but...kinnel:


----------



## elbows (Dec 12, 2020)

The grim reality never put the anti-lockdown imaginary Sweden wankers off from using a fake version of Sweden in their propaganda. So sadly despite the second wave deaths in Sweden, I think the lack of quacking about Sweden is mostly due to timing cycles. The anti-lockdown wankers tend to seek and receive attention when there is a buildup to new national restrictions being decided upon and announced, its part of the politics applicable most to a phase we have moved beyond several times so far. But yes, I suppose it is possible that Swedens star has faded even in the anti-lockdown wankers minds, I just couldnt bet on it since there is much else in reality that they find easy to ignore.


----------



## elbows (Dec 13, 2020)

Germany decided to go much further, regardless of Christmas.









						Coronavirus: Germany to go into lockdown over Christmas
					

The authorities have been struggling to control a growing number of infections and deaths.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> *Germany is to go into a hard lockdown over the Christmas period as the number of deaths and infections from the coronavirus reaches record levels. *
> 
> Non-essential shops will close across the country from Wednesday, as will schools, with children to be cared for at home wherever possible.
> 
> Chancellor Angela Merkel blamed Christmas shopping for a "considerable" rise in social contacts.





> The new lockdown will run from 16 December to 10 January. Announcing the move after meeting leaders of the country's 16 states, Mrs Merkel said there was "an urgent need to take action".
> 
> Restaurants, bars and leisure centres have already been closed since November, and some areas of the country had imposed their own lockdowns.
> 
> ...


----------



## LDC (Dec 13, 2020)

elbows said:


> The grim reality never put the anti-lockdown imaginary Sweden wankers off from using a fake version of Sweden in their propaganda. So sadly despite the second wave deaths in Sweden, I think the lack of quacking about Sweden is mostly due to timing cycles. The anti-lockdown wankers tend to seek and receive attention when there is a buildup to new national restrictions being decided upon and announced, its part of the politics applicable most to a phase we have moved beyond several times so far. But yes, I suppose it is possible that Swedens star has faded even in the anti-lockdown wankers minds, I just couldnt bet on it since there is much else in reality that they find easy to ignore.



There was a London GP on BBC news  TV channel this morning at about 8am who went on about lockdown not working. She wasn't questioned at all about her suggested alternative. She was against mass testing in schools as well, as she reckons it does more harm than good. Again, not questioned on it. FFS.


----------



## Cloo (Dec 13, 2020)

Interesting report from Zoe project suggests that truly asymptomatic Covid may be rarer than has generally been believed so far There’s more to COVID-19 than the three ‘classic’ symptoms. Here’s what else to look out for


----------



## William of Walworth (Dec 13, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> There was a London GP on BBC news  TV channel this morning at about 8am who went on about lockdown not working. She wasn't questioned at all about her suggested alternative. She was against mass testing in schools as well, as she reckons it does more harm than good. Again, not questioned on it. FFS.




There are times when the BBC's interpretation of 'balance' is to interview nutcases and scarcely challenge them at all. Really pisses me off


----------



## frogwoman (Dec 13, 2020)

Cloo said:


> Interesting report from Zoe project suggests that truly asymptomatic Covid may be rarer than has generally been believed so far There’s more to COVID-19 than the three ‘classic’ symptoms. Here’s what else to look out for



Heard this too because it can take several days between testing positive and symptoms to show up, there is also a difference between asymptomatic and 'subclinical' with someone just feeling a bit tired one day or something. 

I've also heard that even asymptomatic infections can increase the risk of stuff like heart attacks and blood clots


----------



## Jay Park (Dec 14, 2020)

Over 1000 cases a day here now, and it’s no wonder when this is how they go about their business. All day, everywhere. Some people are fucking numb.



they do this all over the shop


----------



## Jay Park (Dec 14, 2020)

protesting this got me threatened with a tazer, battered, and handcuffed for 2 hours so tightly my left thumb still doesn’t have any feeling in it.

it’s a fucking ash tray you selfish bastards, just cos some 80 year old who doesn’t receive enough pension money cleans it up at 4am everyday, to top up their income, doesn’t mean you should be doing _*that*_


----------



## Jay Park (Dec 14, 2020)

Chairman Meow said:


> Today's daily stats in WA. I do feel extremely lucky to live here.



let us know if you find my North Face security pouch with passport and 2 grand in it, please


----------



## Yossarian (Dec 14, 2020)

spring-peeper said:


> Alberta, Canada just clued into the fact that the virus is a threat.
> They went from no mask to massive restrictions, and the premiere is now declaring it a war on the virus.  (paraphrase)
> 
> They decided to make ads to help their people understand the virus.
> ...




They'd probably get more people to take the warnings seriously if their ads showed a COVID patient in their 30s or 40s being intubated  - I don't know why COVID ads from governments seem to be pulling their punches a little while cigarette packets are required to show graphic photos of diseased eyeballs etc.


----------



## miss direct (Dec 14, 2020)

Four day lockdown over New Year in Turkey. 9pm NYE till 5am on the 4th.


----------



## teqniq (Dec 16, 2020)




----------



## Buddy Bradley (Dec 16, 2020)

That sounds like an extremely more complex issue than the original tweet would suggest.


----------



## andysays (Dec 17, 2020)

Macron has just tested positive, apparently


----------



## weltweit (Dec 17, 2020)

I was talking to a pal who visited China last November. In his journey back he stopped over in the Philippines where he became quite ill. Still ill, he continued to the UK where he took to his bed for a good couple of weeks with a strong fever etc etc ..  No one was talking about coronavirus then and I don't think he saw his doctor.


----------



## elbows (Dec 18, 2020)

Latest version of the chart of some large European countries number of Covid-19 patients in hospital that I sporadically post here:



I have taken a bit of a look at Frances regional figures to establish what sort of trends and variations are behind the recent slowing of their decline in patient numbers. Looks like a mix of declines, stalled declines, relatively stable levels and increases.



Using data for France from Géodes - Santé publique France


----------



## 20Bees (Dec 18, 2020)

I may well have missed it, but do we know if/which other countries have implemented a bubble system - social, childcare, or proposals for Christmas - and whether they have been relaxed or tightened in response to weekly or monthly statistics?


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Dec 18, 2020)

elbows said:


> Latest version of the chart of some large European countries number of Covid-19 patients in hospital that I sporadically post here:
> 
> View attachment 244145
> 
> ...


is the one that recently went up next to "ile de france"  "auvergne-rhone-alpes"? (sorry can't tell which actual shade it is  )


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Dec 19, 2020)

20Bees said:


> I may well have missed it, but do we know if/which other countries have implemented a bubble system - social, childcare, or proposals for Christmas - and whether they have been relaxed or tightened in response to weekly or monthly statistics?


France: no idea about bubbles but on chrirstams eve the breaking of curfew "will be tolerated" (french gov website wording) no street assemblies will be though, no curfew exceptions for NYE. 
Curfew is 8pm to 6am 
Country wide travel is again allowed from last Tuesday after 6 weeks of not being so, establishments allowed to open have to be closed by curfew time.
Not heard about a bubble system elsewhere which does not mean it does not exist.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 19, 2020)

__





						South Africa reports 'severe' new variant of Covid-19
					





					amp.rte.ie
				




The research team, led by Tulio de Oliveira, has shared its findings with the scientific community and alerted authorities in Britain, who have "studied their own samples and found that a similar mutation ... was the variant that was driving their resurgence in London," he said.


Oh fuck. 😳


----------



## Supine (Dec 19, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Nothing suggests it is more severe as far as I know. A variant spreading is not the same as a variant behaving any different to existing versions.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 19, 2020)

Supine said:


> Nothing suggests it is more severe as far as I know. A variant spreading is not the same as a variant behaving any different to existing versions.




"South African doctors have remarked that more patients are younger, and do not always have other conditions that amplify the virus' effect, but are nonetheless suffering from more severe forms of Covid-19."

From the article


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 19, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I've just posted about the concerns in the UK, on the UK thread -









						Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion
					

yep, a few minutes ago. from lambeth.gov.  up 126% in 7 days.  get tested if you have symptoms.  Just got the same text. Don’t think I’ve received any previous texts from the gov about covid at all, have you?




					www.urban75.net


----------



## nagapie (Dec 19, 2020)

At least Cyril Ramaphosa gave the sort of measured and clear response you'd expect from a world leader including asking employers to take responsibility for keeping employees safe. Nothing like our sack of shit leader.


----------



## Supine (Dec 19, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> "South African doctors have remarked that more patients are younger, and do not always have other conditions that amplify the virus' effect, but are nonetheless suffering from more severe forms of Covid-19."
> 
> From the article



Also from the article 'The global body said there was no indication there were changes in the way the new strain of the virus was behaving.'


----------



## prunus (Dec 19, 2020)

Supine said:


> Also from the article 'The global body said there was no indication there were changes in the way the new strain of the virus was behaving.'



These two comments (no changes in behaviour, increased severe illness frequency in young people) are not mutually exclusive; increased contagiousness (which seems to be accepted) is likely due to improved binding caused by changes in the spike configuration - this in turn would make it more likely, once it’s got hold, to spread rapidly within the body, before even young people’s immune systems in some cases can contain it, hence increased occurance of severe disease.

It’s not behaving differently per se, just getting better at doing what it does. 

The increased infection effectiveness has effects both within and between people


----------



## Supine (Dec 19, 2020)

prunus said:


> These two comments (no changes in behaviour, increased severe illness frequency in young people) are not mutually exclusive; increased contagiousness (which seems to be accepted)



I'm yet to be convinced it has increased in contagiousness and I'm not sure it is accepted as a fact. It may be, but I haven't seen any evidence. PHE have said they need two weeks to analyse it before making pronouncements. 

I think this story is the gov worried about tier messaging failing and the upcoming Christmas relation of rules. A scare tactic basically.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 19, 2020)

Supine said:


> Also from the article 'The global body said there was no indication there were changes in the way the new strain of the virus was behaving.'




Well...that just means it's doing the same thing. But the indications are that higher proportions of younger people with no underlying conditions are becoming sicker with it.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 19, 2020)

Supine said:


> I'm yet to be convinced it has increased in contagiousness and I'm not sure it is accepted as a fact. It may be, but I haven't seen any evidence. PHE have said they need two weeks to analyse it before making pronouncements.
> 
> I think this story is the gov worried about tier messaging failing and the upcoming Christmas relation of rules. A scare tactic basically.



Are you working in a medical capacity in South Africa? Or in a lab? 
I can tell you Drs here are already on high alert for the  501.V2 Variant. Many people will be returning to Ireland and a high proportion will come via London.


----------



## elbows (Dec 19, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> I can tell you Drs here are already on high alert for the  501.V2 Variant.



Where is the evidence to support this claim?

Genomic surveillance experts will keep an eye on that side of things. Doctors that treat patients have very little to do with this side of things, and the current level of understanding about the implications of these strains is much too low to make confident claims about implications for patient case. Obviously doctors will be on the front lines of any response to large increases in infection, but such doctors will have been expecting that they might face a nasty winter wave anyway, regardless of strain changes.

My opinion will evolve as data and analysis becomes public. At this stage, with very limited info, the new strain talk does not change my view of the winter pandemic one bit. I also consider that the framing governments choose to apply to these new strains is a political matter at this stage, one that could be entirely detached from the underlying reality. Its being used both as an excuse for failing to keep things under control, and an excuse to u-turn on what measures they'd previously told the public and fellow politicians would be necesssary this winter, and go further. Epidemic waves of this virus seem quite capable of forcing such u-turns regardless of whether any properties of the virus have actually changed. The only question is whether there is any legitimacy to these new strain excuses, because there could be, but its too early to judge that bit. And even if there were no interesting new strains at all, a high degree of pandemic vigilance is required during winter.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 19, 2020)

elbows said:


> Where is the evidence to support this claim?
> 
> Genomic surveillance experts will keep an eye on that side of things. Doctors that treat patients have very little to do with this side of things, and the current level of understanding about the implications of these strains is much too low to make confident claims about implications for patient case. Obviously doctors will be on the front lines of any response to large increases in infection, but such doctors will have been expecting that they might face a nasty winter wave anyway, regardless of strain changes.
> 
> My opinion will evolve as data and analysis becomes public. At this stage, with very limited info, the new strain talk does not change my view of the winter pandemic one bit. I also consider that the framing governments choose to apply to these new strains is a political matter at this stage, one that could be entirely detached from the underlying reality. Its being used both as an excuse for failing to keep things under control, and an excuse to u-turn on what measures they'd previously told the public and fellow politicians would be necesssary this winter, and go further. Epidemic waves of this virus seem quite capable of forcing such u-turns regardless of whether any properties of the virus have actually changed. The only question is whether there is any legitimacy to these new strain excuses, because there could be, but its too early to judge that bit. And even if there were no interesting new strains at all, a high degree of pandemic vigilance is required during winter.




Hospital Drs working in A&E and covid wards here have been alerted. I'm not in the UK. I dont know what other evidence you want? My brother is a dr working with covid 19 patients. Was talking with him last evening and he said they were made aware of this variant because of the potential for faster transmission and the potential for an increase in numbers of younger people ending up requiring hospitalization. The hospital he is in is one of the biggest covid 19 hospitals in the country. He and his colleagues have worked with covid patients since March. And they are concerned about the impact a more readily / rapidly transmitable version of this virus could have. 

So yeah. Might be a bit too anecdotal for you as regards evidence?  But I know my brother. He is well on the ball and is a biochemist along with being consultant physician. He is in constant contact with drs all over the world. They network and review cases every week. 

Cant give you more than that.


----------



## Hollis (Dec 19, 2020)

Tier 4 for London to be announced...


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 19, 2020)

Hollis said:


> Tier 4 for London to be announced...



UK thread over there >>>


----------



## The39thStep (Dec 19, 2020)

Portugal Xmas is on but there are New Year restrictions.  New Year's Eve, from 31 December to 1 January, there will be a curfew from 11pm, an additional curfew will then come in from 1pm on 1, 2,and 3 January.


----------



## The39thStep (Dec 19, 2020)

Portuguese Armed Forces helping out in old peoples homes, although I'm not exactly sure what they are doing  tbh


----------



## weltweit (Dec 19, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> Portuguese Armed Forces helping out in old peoples homes, although I'm not exactly sure what they are doing  tbh
> 
> View attachment 244287


Not a very military looking haircut


----------



## Reno (Dec 19, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Not a very military looking haircut


Looks like a woman to me, I don't think they make them have buzz cuts.


----------



## The39thStep (Dec 19, 2020)

Dr. Maria Salazar, a physician and a colonel in the Portuguese Air Force.


----------



## Mation (Dec 19, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> Hospital Drs working in A&E and covid wards here have been alerted. I'm not in the UK. I dont know what other evidence you want? My brother is a dr working with covid 19 patients. Was talking with him last evening and he said they were made aware of this variant because of the potential for faster transmission and the potential for an increase in numbers of younger people ending up requiring hospitalization. The hospital he is in is one of the biggest covid 19 hospitals in the country. He and his colleagues have worked with covid patients since March. And they are concerned about the impact a more readily / rapidly transmitable version of this virus could have.
> 
> So yeah. Might be a bit too anecdotal for you as regards evidence?  But I know my brother. He is well on the ball and is a biochemist along with being consultant physician. He is in constant contact with drs all over the world. They network and review cases every week.
> 
> Cant give you more than that.


I think you and elbows might be talking at cross purposes, here. Drs won't be on the lookout for the strain itself, as they're not doing genomic testing, (and I don't think that's what you meant). But I'm sure, as you say (including because you say it in regards to your brother) that they'll have been briefed to prepare for a surge in cases that might be due to a faster spreading strain, and on what's known of the strain thus far.

Sorry if I'm over-  or under- or sideways interpreting either of you!


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 19, 2020)

Mation said:


> I think you and elbows might be talking at cross purposes, here. Drs won't be on the lookout for the strain itself, as they're not doing genomic testing, (and I don't think that's what you meant). But I'm sure, as you say (including because you say it in regards to your brother) that they'll have been briefed to prepare for a surge in cases that might be due to a faster spreading strain, and on what's known of the strain thus far.
> 
> Sorry if I'm over-  or under- or sideways interpreting either of you!



You are right. Where my brother workd they are watching for that vatiant. According to government scientists there is no sign of it yet in people tested recently here.


----------



## Mation (Dec 20, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> You are right.


Yay! I was going to say I'll take every positive I can get, but then I thought about it


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 20, 2020)

__





						48-hour ban on flights from UK over new Covid-19 strain
					





					amp.rte.ie
				




The Dutch government has banned all passenger flights from Britain after finding the first case of a new, more infectious coronavirus strain that is circulating in the UK.

The ban, from 6am local time until 1 January, came hours after Britain announced a stay at home order for part of the country to slow the new variant.

"An infectious mutation of the Covid-19 virus is circulating in the United Kingdom. It is said to spread more easily and faster and is more difficult to detect," the Dutch health ministry said in a statement.

The Dutch public health body, the RIVM, therefore "recommends that any introduction of this virus strain from the United Kingdom be limited as much as possible by limiting and/or controlling passenger movements".


😳


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Dec 20, 2020)

If they found one
how many have they got already?
answers on a postcard


----------



## elbows (Dec 20, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I dont think they will be the only country to do that!


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 20, 2020)

elbows said:


> I dont think they will be the only country to do that!



They are not, Israel had earlier, and Belgium has just joined them - see UK thread.


----------



## weltweit (Dec 20, 2020)

Would be interesting to know who patient zero for the new variant was? 

I imagine someone is looking into this.


----------



## elbows (Dec 20, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Would be interesting to know who patient zero for the new variant was?
> 
> I imagine someone is looking into this.



Many countries have very limited genomic surveillance so its hard to even be sure of the country where this branch began, let alone which patient.

But in terms of the first known person whose sample was analysed and showed this same set of mutations in the UK, dont be surprised if it turns out to be someone tested as part of a hospital outbreak.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Dec 20, 2020)

Italy France and Germany also considering it according to the beeb


----------



## frogwoman (Dec 20, 2020)

Twiv have an episode up about the new variant so I'm going to listen to that in a bit.


----------



## LDC (Dec 20, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Twiv have an episode up about the new variant so I'm going to listen to that in a bit.



Report back in lay person terms please! With a score of 1-10 of how fucked we are.


----------



## elbows (Dec 20, 2020)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Report back in lay person terms please! With a score of 1-10 of how fucked we are.



I would bet that there are too many unknowns still, so its too early to judge.

My best hope case is that regardless of the properties of the new strain, fears over it will lead to massive rethinks about border control and travel in very many countries, and many lives could actually end up being saved as a result. But of course if this strain is inherently more transmissible, any new pandemic benefits that stem from tightened responses will be balanced against that, and I wouldnt like to guess whether the result will be nett positive or negative.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 21, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Would be interesting to know who patient zero for the new variant was?
> 
> I imagine someone is looking into this.





elbows said:


> Many countries have very limited genomic surveillance so its hard to even be sure of the country where this branch began, let alone which patient.
> 
> But in terms of the first known person whose sample was analysed and showed this same set of mutations in the UK, dont be surprised if it turns out to be someone tested as part of a hospital outbreak.




There are suggestions it may have something to do with immunocompromised patients. 🥺









						Could a patient with a chronic Covid infection be the origin of new UK strain? | ITV News
					

The first thing about the family this new strain belongs to is that it's like nothing that has come before, writes Science Editor Tom Clarke. | ITV National News




					www.itv.com
				




 "....in places like the UK, immune compromised patients are treated with convalescent plasma donated by Covid-19 survivors, chock full of antibodies against the virus. If these therapies fail, the don't just fail the patient - they allow the virus inside them to adapt mutations to avoid those antibodies.It's only a theory, and the experimental results that could stand it up will be a long time in coming. But it's a plausible explanation for how the UK may have found itself home to a newly virulent strain of Covid-19.Government scientists said today it may be up to 70% more infectious than existing variants of Covid. That means we're going to have to try 70% harder to keep it under control before a vaccine hopefully halts its spread."


I hope this is wrong 😟


----------



## elbows (Dec 21, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> There are suggestions it may have something to do with immunocompromised patients. 🥺
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I think there are already certain results which point somewhat in that direction. Just dont take them as proof of anything at this stage.

For example certain relevant mutations were seen in a patient who received convalescent plasma on a number of occasions. In the graph below the times labelled CP are when they were given convalescent plasma, and on those occasions the version of the virus with some specific mutations, shown by the green area in the following chart, then became the only strain they detected in the patient. This changed when the CP wore off, but the same phenomenon was seen again when they tried CP again some time later.



			https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.05.20241927v2.full.pdf


----------



## brogdale (Dec 21, 2020)

Gotta hand it to 'em; they never miss an opportunity, do they?


----------



## elbows (Dec 21, 2020)

There is an explanation of that paper about the mutations here:









						Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection & viral evolution tracked in an immuno-compromised patient | COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium
					






					www.cogconsortium.uk


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Dec 21, 2020)

EMA approves fpizer vaccine


----------



## ice-is-forming (Dec 21, 2020)

Inner Sydney Northern Beaches had a little community outbreak. So boarder control and quarantine back in force. People are a bit upset because of Xmas plans being halted but...

*New South Wales has recorded another drop in the daily number of coronavirus cases, sources say.

7NEWS understands there were 8 new cases of community transmission in the 24 hours to 8pm Monday night. There are 10 cases in overseas returned travellers.

This comes on the back of 15 new cases reported from a record 38,000 test results the day before.

So queensland have the hard border back between nsw and Victoria.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian will make that announcement on Wednesday morning *which you can watch live here.*

*








						New COVID cases reported in NSW as desperate race to save Christmas continues
					

Tuesday's COVID cases numbers have been revealed ahead of a crucial announcement.




					www.google.com
				



*


----------



## Chairman Meow (Dec 22, 2020)

WA already closed the border to NSW. Our glorious leader Mark McGowan was quick to react as ever! I have a little bit of a crush on him, so it was quite funny to find out yesterday that he got married the day after me, 24 years ago.  Life here is still pretty normal, and the weather is glorious. In fact my mum told me to knock it off putting up beach photos on fb, as it was too annoying. We are watching the UK news with utter horror and despair, but no little surprise that Boris has managed to fuck everything up so monumentally. Also found out my cousin and her son have Covid. She is a healthcare manager in NI who has been WFH since March and been very careful, but her son brought it back from uni. We are just hoping no-one brought it in from the Sydney outbreak before they shut the border. These are yesterday's stats.


----------



## planetgeli (Dec 22, 2020)

Covid cases recorded in Antarctica for first time – reports
					

Isolated continent reportedly registers first infections after 36 Chileans fall ill at research base




					www.theguardian.com
				




Antarctica. Fuck's sake.


----------



## planetgeli (Dec 22, 2020)

Alarm at Colombia plan to exclude migrants from coronavirus vaccine
					

President Iván Duque says undocumented Venezuelans will be denied access in a move denounced as unethical and impractical




					www.theguardian.com
				




Stupid Colombia. Fuck's sake.

This is hundreds of thousands of people we're talking about.


----------



## Cloo (Dec 22, 2020)

Colleague in Toronto (well, just outside it) has been told they're on lockdown now - 6000+ cases reported in Canada compared to 33k here. So much more on-the-ball....


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Dec 22, 2020)

Grim.


----------



## Pickman's model (Dec 22, 2020)

Mr.Bishie said:


> Grim.



even grimmer that donald john trump is not numbered among them


----------



## 2hats (Dec 23, 2020)

For slavish adherents of _herd immunity_...


> As of November 1, 2020, the nationwide cumulative COVID-19 prevalence (past and current infections relative to the population size) is estimated at 31% (95%-CI 22-50) for Peru, 27% (17–41) for Mexico, 22% (14–34) for Brazil, 12% (7.2-20) for the US, *11% (6.4–18) for the United Kingdom*, 8.2% (5.2–15) for France, 7.4% (4.9–13) for Sweden, 4.2% (2.5–6.8) for Canada, 1.8% (1.2–3) for Germany and 0.12% (0.074–0.26) for Japan.


DOI: 10.1101/2020.12.01.20241539v1


----------



## frogwoman (Dec 23, 2020)

Covid fatalities soar in Mexico as president condemned for inaction
					

As the crisis worsens, Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government has hardly changed its minimal restrictions




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## The39thStep (Dec 23, 2020)

We've got three variants here in Portugal



> A study on the genetic diversity of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus detected three new variants of the virus circulating in the second wave of the covid-19 pandemic in Portugal, one Portuguese advanced today researcher at the Ricardo Jorge National Health Institute (INSA).


----------



## weltweit (Dec 23, 2020)

The39thStep said:


> We've got three variants here in Portugal


Are any of them ringing alarm bells?


----------



## The39thStep (Dec 23, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Are any of them ringing alarm bells?


Nope not yet .The English one has though, now need a test before you fly.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Dec 24, 2020)




----------



## ice-is-forming (Dec 24, 2020)

9News: Police investigating superyacht group who arrived in Cairns with positive COVID-19 case.

fucking super yacht! 










						Police investigating superyacht group who arrived in Cairns with positive COVID-19 case
					






					www.9news.com.au


----------



## ice-is-forming (Dec 24, 2020)




----------



## ice-is-forming (Dec 24, 2020)

Chairman Meow said:


> WA already closed the border to NSW. Our glorious leader Mark McGowan was quick to react as ever! I have a little bit of a crush on him, so it was quite funny to find out yesterday that he got married the day after me, 24 years ago.  Life here is still pretty normal, and the weather is glorious. In fact my mum told me to knock it off putting up beach photos on fb, as it was too annoying. We are watching the UK news with utter horror and despair, but no little surprise that Boris has managed to fuck everything up so monumentally. Also found out my cousin and her son have Covid. She is a healthcare manager in NI who has been WFH since March and been very careful, but her son brought it back from uni. We are just hoping no-one brought it in from the Sydney outbreak before they shut the border. These are yesterday's stats.



Yep, It's like we're experiencing a bit of a parallel universe down here. I'm looking on in shocked disbelief as I see what's happening for europe based urbs. I've even got some survivors guilt going on.  First world problem I know , and I won't deny it.

My dad, sister and her husband all live in London and have covid. She's a teacher.


----------



## Cid (Dec 24, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Yep, It's like we're experiencing a bit of a parallel universe down here. I'm looking on in shocked disbelief as I see what's happening for europe based urbs. I've even got some survivors guilt going on.  First world problem I know , and I won't deny it.
> 
> My dad, sister and her husband all live in London and have covid. She's a teacher.



Yeah, I have a couple of FB friends in oz... It's feels very odd seeing what you lot are able to do, pictures of Christmas gatherings etc... even people _hugging their friends_.


----------



## teqniq (Dec 24, 2020)




----------



## 2hats (Dec 25, 2020)




----------



## kabbes (Dec 25, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> View attachment 245042View attachment 245043View attachment 245044View attachment 245045View attachment 245046


Why does Australia need 117 million vaccine doses when they only have about 22 million adults living there?


----------



## nagapie (Dec 25, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Why does Australia need 117 million vaccine doses when they only have about 22 million adults living there?


All the developed countries have overbought leaving the poorer countries without. SA battling with the new strain and not expecting to have vaccines for months still and then only for 10% of the population.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Dec 25, 2020)

kabbes said:


> Why does Australia need 117 million vaccine doses when they only have about 22 million adults living there?



No idea other than because they can, and for the reason nagapie has said. 

They initially only pre ordered 5 million a month ago, then doubled that. Now I imagine that they're hedging their bets between the various vaccines, as it's not a one size fits all..the Aus grown vaccine turned out to be a dud, there's concern over getting it out into the community at such low temperatures, so there may be waste. 

But yeah it seems slightly excessive  doesn't it. Maybe because we don't have capacity to make our own here, so they're buying in for now and for the usual winter shot time which happens about may.

I really don't know









						Australia's order of 10m doses of Pfizer Covid vaccine is not enough, Labor warns
					

Concerns have been raised about how prepared Australia is to store and transport the vaccine at -70C




					www.theguardian.com
				




I'd like to think that Australia also has in mind to help some of our closest neighbors.


New Zealand
Timor – Leste (East Timor)
Papua New Guinea
New Caledonia
The Solomon Islands
Indonesia
Singapore
Fiji
Vanuatu


----------



## 2hats (Dec 25, 2020)

Evidence for vertical faecal aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection via connected drainage pipes in an apartment building in Guangzhou.





_Probable Evidence of Fecal Aerosol Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a High-Rise Building_ Kang, Wei et al.
DOI: 10.7326/M20-0928


----------



## lazythursday (Dec 25, 2020)

All developed countries over ordered but this is less bad than it sounds, as the excess will be sold off / possibly given in aid? But it likely does slow down distribution to poorer nations.


----------



## Supine (Dec 25, 2020)

ice-is-forming said:


> Maybe because we don't have capacity



The AZ vaccine is being produced in Australia. Hopefully for the countries you have listed when stocks are fulfilled for Aus residents.


----------



## 2hats (Dec 25, 2020)

On achieving widespread immunity across the community.


> Hard as it may be to hear, he said, he believes that it may take close to 90 percent immunity to bring the virus to a halt — almost as much as is needed to stop a measles outbreak.
> 
> Asked about Dr. Fauci’s conclusions, prominent epidemiologists said that he might be proven right. The early range of 60 to 70 percent was almost undoubtedly too low, they said, and the virus is becoming more transmissible, so it will take greater herd immunity to stop it.











						How Much Herd Immunity Is Enough?
					

Scientists initially estimated that 60 to 70 percent of the population needed to acquire resistance to the coronavirus to banish it. Now Dr. Anthony Fauci and others are quietly shifting that number upward.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## 2hats (Dec 26, 2020)

Initial results in an ongoing longitudinal study (of health care workers) suggest naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 provides protection against re-infection in healthy adults (65 years of age or under) for at least 6 months.


----------



## Yu_Gi_Oh (Dec 26, 2020)

2hats said:


> Evidence for vertical faecal aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection via connected drainage pipes in an apartment building in Guangzhou.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I know they think it spread like this in Hong Kong with original SARS.

When I came back into China and was put into centralized quarantine, I was given some kind of tablets to put into the cistern of my toilet every day, and some sachets of powder. They told me to pour the powder on my shit before I flushed.    So I guess the fecal transmission route is taken fairly seriously here.


----------



## kropotkin (Dec 26, 2020)

2hats said:


> Initial results in an ongoing longitudinal study (of health care workers) suggest naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 provides protection against re-infection in healthy adults (65 years of age or under) for at least 6 months.


I personally know 4 colleagues in my hospital who tested positive in the first wave who were reinfected in the last 2 months. This is _much_ more common than we realise and less protection is conferred by prior infection.
Luckily (and oddly) there is good evidence that the vaccine gives _more_ protection than prior infection.


----------



## LDC (Dec 26, 2020)

Hope things good with you and work is OK kropotkin


----------



## kropotkin (Dec 26, 2020)

Cheers. Ran a covid ward for 6 weeks until last week- 30 (of ~70) of our staff ended up infected. All scrupulous with PPE. I somehow dodged it. All back at work now, but several were quite ill and two admitted (one nurse admitted under me to our ward!).

I realised this week I haven't had a full week off (when I didn't have coronavirus) in 2020


----------



## zora (Dec 26, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> Cheers. Ran a covid ward for 6 weeks until last week- 30 (of ~70) of our staff ended up infected. All scrupulous with PPE. I somehow dodged it. All back at work now, but several were quite ill and two admitted (one nurse admitted under me to our ward!).
> 
> I realised this week I haven't had a full week off (when I didn't have coronavirus) in 2020



Wow, that sounds so tough.   I am trying to express my gratitude and respect, but it's hard to find words that do justice to what you and your colleagues are doing!

May I ask about the PPE situation? Are you actually being given proper PPE, or is it still the case that all care but the most exposing procedures are being done with just surgical masks? Or do you have access to FFP2 masks now and if not, do you know what the rationale is now that shortages are relieved?


----------



## kropotkin (Dec 26, 2020)

1. Thanks, but I get paid well and have a great job. Its the HCAs, porters and domestics that deserve the thanks

2. All the Trusts in the country are adhering to Public Health England directions on PPE use- surgical masks, gloves and plastic aprons for all but "aerosol generating procedures". This is based on the mode of transmission being assumed to be droplet in the main, against which this is appropriate protection. 
There is in reality a degree of aerisolised spread, but it is by far the lesser mode of transmission. We were probably unlucky and had several wandering patients unable to comply with mask usage and unable to protect their coughs.

3. Stocks are ok, but if gowns and ffp3 masks were required for normal care of covid positive or possible patients, stocks would run out in a very short time.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 26, 2020)

How about the vaccine, have you & your team received the first dose yet, kropotkin?


----------



## two sheds (Dec 26, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> There is in reality a degree of aerisolised spread, but it is by far the lesser mode of transmission.



What are main modes of transmission?


----------



## kropotkin (Dec 26, 2020)

two sheds said:


> What are main modes of transmission?


Droplet >> fomite >> aerosol


----------



## kropotkin (Dec 26, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> How about the vaccine, have you & your team received the first dose yet, kropotkin?


We are a hub so have been vaccinating for two weeks now (but not staff beyond high risk: diabetics, immunosuppressed, shielders etc). I think they should have prioritised HCAs and nurses on covid wards before anyone else (including the vulnerable elderly)

But it's all political and the system has to be seen to be prioritising those fucked over by the management of infections in care homes in the first wave


----------



## zora (Dec 26, 2020)

The respect and thanks to you and your colleagues were meant to include all the health care workers you mention 

Some more general musings inspired by kropotkin's post: Seems to me that when there is a risk of wandering and coughing patients, current protection as per PHE guidelines is inadequate as surely those kind of eventualities of every day hospital reality ought to be planned in.
Almost half of staff getting infected sounds to me less like bad luck and more like systemic failings (and just in case it needs saying, I don't mean staff but PHE guidance).
I get that current stocks of PPE would run low again if everyone suddenly started using FFP2/3 instead of surgical mask, but surely if the NHS had attempted to buy enough of them in in the last six months, they could have been produced and supplied.

Seems mad that lack of PPE was a massive scandal at the start of the pandemic and now despite all these months to put it right, it's still not happening. That should me more of a scandal, rather than less!

Quick check on recommendations in Germany, looks like FFP2s are standard for working with patients with confirmed or suspected covid.
Chart for any German-speaking geeks

Ugh, I am aware that I am coming across as a right arm-chair hobby epidemiologist, but it's just so frustrating to sit helplessly at home on the umpteenth furlough without family or friends, watching this play out so painfully. :/


----------



## 2hats (Dec 26, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> I personally know 4 colleagues in my hospital who tested positive in the first wave who were reinfected in the last 2 months. This is _much_ more common than we realise and less protection is conferred by prior infection.
> Luckily (and oddly) there is good evidence that the vaccine gives _more_ protection than prior infection.


This is part of the SIREN study which, in the main, involves NHS staff (here 11364). Of 1265 seropositives there were 3 apparent re-infections (after around 5-6 months) but on further testing and analysis it was determined that at least two of them could have had false positive results. Reinfections are definitely occurring (there are clear cases in the literature and, on the face of it, it appears to be happening amongst my colleagues as well) but possibly at lower numbers than false positives (test methodology, lab error, test sensitivity/specificity and, perhaps, recombination events) might suggest and, without sequencing at each stage, hard to confirm with a high degree of confidence.


----------



## kropotkin (Dec 26, 2020)

Yes, it is entirely possible that the four never became seronegative and that's why they tested positive when they got the same syndrome again 6 months later. More likely (given the constellation of symptoms both times were at least clinically diagnosable as covid) is that they got taken down by a different serotype the second time.

On the first point: I've looked after at least 3 people still reliably pcr positive at 40 days post infection. Eventually the virologists, public health people and infection control decided they'd just relable them as negative given the inability of labs to culture live virus after 8 days.


----------



## 2hats (Dec 26, 2020)

With a lockdown and a daily vaccination rate of 1.1% of the population, Israel may effectively halt the pandemic there (ie most COVID fatalities) by March.


----------



## weltweit (Dec 26, 2020)

Yu_Gi_Oh said:


> I know they think it spread like this in Hong Kong with original SARS.
> 
> When I came back into China and was put into centralized quarantine, I was given some kind of tablets to put into the cistern of my toilet every day, and some sachets of powder. They told me to pour the powder on my shit before I flushed.    So I guess the fecal transmission route is taken fairly seriously here.


Interesting, I haven't heard of anyone thinking of this in the UK, do you think we could be missing a trick?


----------



## teuchter (Dec 26, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Interesting, I haven't heard of anyone thinking of this in the UK, do you think we could be missing a trick?


In theory it shouldn't be possible if a plumbing system is working properly. The S bend you see under your washbasin contains a water seal that should make sure no gas inside the waste pipes ever gets into the interior of your dwelling. I don't know if there's something about Chinese plumbing systems that means things are different. But a skim read of the report suggests the transmission route would rely on water seals on things like floor drains having dried up. It might be that there are reasons this kind of situation is much less likely to arise in European buildings.


----------



## Cid (Dec 26, 2020)

teuchter said:


> In theory it shouldn't be possible if a plumbing system is working properly. The S bend you see under your washbasin contains a water seal that should make sure no gas inside the waste pipes ever gets into the interior of your dwelling. I don't know if there's something about Chinese plumbing systems that means things are different. But a skim read of the report suggests the transmission route would rely on water seals on things like floor drains having dried up. It might be that there are reasons this kind of situation is much less likely to arise in European buildings.



There are a lot of rapidly constructed high-rise buildings... Poorer building regs and still poorer building control probably also a factor. In my - limited - experience, western toilets are standard. I know - to my infinite regret - that the plumbing is generally not as good, and that at least one apartment building uses this sort of setup:






I assume that's also used in the west, I'd only come across the type where the soil pipe comes out the back, which is considerably easier to service.

Oh, and yeah - washbasin plumbing can be fucking atrocious.


----------



## teuchter (Dec 26, 2020)

Yeah, that type of WC where it comes out the underside is not especially unusual here. 

It's the functioning of other parts of the system that would be critical for this problem.


----------



## elbows (Dec 26, 2020)

And dont forget this other aspect that came up in the news earlier this year:









						Flushing 'can propel viral infection 3ft into air'
					

Flushing the toilet with the lid up creates a cloud of spray that may spread infection, study finds.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## frogwoman (Dec 28, 2020)

Terribly sad.


----------



## Ms Ordinary (Dec 28, 2020)

Hundreds of UK tourists flee Covid quarantine in Swiss ski resort

Depressing, but pretty much exactly the kind of behaviour I'd expect, if they're anything like the people I know who just had to have a little holiday,  every time a travel corridor opened up.


----------



## Cloo (Dec 28, 2020)

Ms Ordinary said:


> Hundreds of UK tourists flee Covid quarantine in Swiss ski resort
> 
> Depressing, but pretty much exactly the kind of behaviour I'd expect, if they're anything like the people I know who just had to have a little holiday,  every time a travel corridor opened up.


Yes, I suppose the kind of people who just _have _to go on holiday are also the kind of people who won't fucking respect quarantine.


----------



## frogwoman (Dec 28, 2020)

Russia admits to world's third-worst Covid-19 death toll
					

More than 186,000 Russians have died due to coronavirus, three times more than previously reported




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Dec 28, 2020)

frogwoman said:


> Russia admits to world's third-worst Covid-19 death toll
> 
> 
> More than 186,000 Russians have died due to coronavirus, three times more than previously reported
> ...


not unexpected unfortunately


----------



## frogwoman (Dec 28, 2020)

Per capita it means around 0.12% have died


----------



## 2hats (Dec 28, 2020)

Ms Ordinary said:


> Hundreds of UK tourists flee Covid quarantine in Swiss ski resort
> 
> Depressing, but pretty much exactly the kind of behaviour I'd expect, if they're anything like the people I know who just had to have a little holiday,  every time a travel corridor opened up.


----------



## teuchter (Dec 28, 2020)

Looking just at death rates, quite a few European countries where things had been getting quite bad seem to have had quite a sudden drop-off in the past week or two, and it can be seen in the all-EU count too. Is that real or just an artefact of delayed reporting over Christmas I wonder?


----------



## weltweit (Dec 28, 2020)

I don't know what kind of measures France, Italy Austria and Switzerland had in place. 
France especially seems to be doing well.


----------



## elbows (Dec 29, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Looking just at death rates, quite a few European countries where things had been getting quite bad seem to have had quite a sudden drop-off in the past week or two, and it can be seen in the all-EU count too. Is that real or just an artefact of delayed reporting over Christmas I wonder?



Probably a mix of both, with the most recent numbers for the Christmas period especially unlikely to have captured the full picture. But there have been some meaningful declines in other data over a longer period, and I'd always recommend trying to look at more than one sort of data for particular countries. Hospital data usually tracks pretty well with deaths data, and so the usual graph I post here about that can help. The real declines seen in Spain, Italy and France number of patients in hospital with Covid-19 should translate into somewhat similar trends in regards death. But its still an awkward time with countries fearing a reversal of these gains, and declines grinding to a halt in some places. 

The UK data in this graph is quite old now because some nations data hasnt been reported on the dashboard since before Christmas. I will post it again when this data appears.


----------



## Johnny Doe (Dec 29, 2020)

I'm right in thinking in the UK, excess deaths this year are about 20% above the previous 5 years? I'm having a great trouble understanding why some relatively bright people don't understand CoVID is real and want the most obvious data


----------



## elbows (Dec 29, 2020)

Harry Smiles said:


> I'm right in thinking in the UK, excess deaths this year are about 20% above the previous 5 years? I'm having a great trouble understanding why some relatively bright people don't understand CoVID is real and want the most obvious data



There are many different sorts of data which obviously demonstrate the seriousness of the pandemic. No measure is perfect, for example excess deaths figures are not capturing the picture fully because lockdowns, recession and behavioural changes mean there have been less deaths from various other causes, and we probably wont get all the flu deaths we normally have.

For example, using data published for the year so far, I have 583,330 deaths average over last 5 years, and 658,712 actual deaths this year. So a difference of 75,382. But I am confident that the number of Covid-19 related deaths so far this year is quite a bit higher than that. If I fiddle around by skipping the first months of the year before the pandemic virus really took hold, I get more like 81,000 excess deaths. If I were able to accurately mess with the baseline so that it took account of less deaths from other causes, it would not surprise me if I came up with a figure more like 100,000 by the years end, but that will be controversial and I couldnt claim that the number would be spot on. Its somewhere in that ballpark though I'm afraid.


----------



## Johnny Doe (Dec 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> There are many different sorts of data which obviously demonstrate the seriousness of the pandemic. No measure is perfect, for example excess deaths figures are not capturing the picture fully because lockdowns, recession and behavioural changes mean there have been less deaths from various other causes, and we probably wont get all the flu deaths we normally have.
> 
> For example, using data published for the year so far, I have 583,330 deaths average over last 5 years, and 658,712 actual deaths this year. So a difference of 75,382. But I am confident that the number of Covid-19 related deaths so far this year is quite a bit higher than that. If I fiddle around by skipping the first months of the year before the pandemic virus really took hold, I get more like 81,000 excess deaths. If I were able to accurately mess with the baseline so that it took account of less deaths from other causes, it would not surprise me if I came up with a figure more like 100,000 by the years end, but that will be controversial and I couldnt claim that the number would be spot on. Its somewhere in that ballpark though I'm afraid.


That's really helpful. Much appreciated!


----------



## hash tag (Dec 29, 2020)

2hats said:


>


(I laughed because I used a gif of that picture for something else on here yesterday).

Just what is it about Brits abroad   I certainly would not consider traveling at the moment. I gather the newly found British strain is spreading
like wildfire far and wide.

Re the Verbier thing, it is generally regarded as a rather exclusive ski resort and those that did the runner were doctors (thought
they would know better), lawyers Etc.

It now turns out there has been a bit of a beach party down in Aus which is mainly being blamed on Brits who are being threatened
with deportation  Covid: Sydney beach party sparks 'backpacker' deportation threat

Give a dog a bad name.


----------



## klang (Dec 29, 2020)

hash tag said:


> Just what is it about Brits abroad


Not just Brits. It's generally people doing careless travelling. I know a lot of people who went on holidays this summer, from everywhere to everywhere. That's why Germany and Austria closed their skiing resorts. Because they didn't want tourists from anywhere.


----------



## The39thStep (Dec 29, 2020)

littleseb said:


> Not just Brits. It's generally people doing careless travelling. I know a lot of people who went on holidays this summer, from everywhere to everywhere. That's why Germany and Austria closed their skiing resorts. Because they didn't want tourists from anywhere.


It was the behaviour of Dutch students that got the GNR out with batons here early summer not the Brits .
Anyway *16h53 - New strain Covid is only known in Madeira, guarantees specialist from Instituto Ricardo Jorge*


----------



## two sheds (Dec 29, 2020)

Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China - Nature Communications
					

Large-scale population screening can provide insights to levels of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here, the authors report a citywide screening of ~10,000,000 residents of Wuhan and show that SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence was very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.




					www.nature.com
				




Anyone know about this, which is being promoted as saying that asymptomatic transmission is a fallacy, and so  there is no need for lockdowns? 



> Stringent COVID-19 control measures were imposed in Wuhan between January 23 and April 8, 2020. Estimates of the prevalence of infection following the release of restrictions could inform post-lockdown pandemic management. Here, we describe a city-wide SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening programme between May 14 and June 1, 2020 in Wuhan. All city residents aged six years or older were eligible and 9,899,828 (92.9%) participated. No new symptomatic cases and 300 asymptomatic cases (detection rate 0.303/10,000, 95% CI 0.270–0.339/10,000) were identified. There were no positive tests amongst 1,174 close contacts of asymptomatic cases. 107 of 34,424 previously recovered COVID-19 patients tested positive again (re-positive rate 0.31%, 95% CI 0.423–0.574%). The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan was therefore very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.


----------



## elbows (Dec 29, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China - Nature Communications
> 
> 
> Large-scale population screening can provide insights to levels of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here, the authors report a citywide screening of ~10,000,000 residents of Wuhan and show that SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence was very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.
> ...



It doesnt contain anything that can be sensibly used to argue against lockdowns.

It covers the situation over one period of time in one key place that had an intense, nasty outbreak that was actually detected, involving an early strain, and after 5-8 weeks had passed since the end of a very intense lockdown. Hardly any cases were detected in general, so its not a picture of what the level of asymptomatic cases would be like in a time and place where an outbreak was rampant.

Plus data about asymptomatic cases from China has always failed to match what many other countries seem to have observed.

Plus even if there was not a single case of asymptomatic tranmission, or the levels were so low as to be a very minor factor in the epidemic waves, so what? Authorities can claim that if there was no asymptomatic transmission then they could manage the pandemic just by asking everyone with symptoms to isolate, but they are still quite likely to face bad epidemic waves that challenge their healthcare systems. Because not everyone can or will comply with such things, and also because even if there was no asymptomatic transmission, there is still presymptomatic transmission, that is transmission from people who will go on to develop symptoms at some later point but havent yet, and so are still moving around and interacting with other people.

If I wanted to use that study to sell an idea, far from using it to argue against lockdown, I'd say its a much better fit with a zero covid approach where you have a really strong lockdown to crush infection levels, and then take various precautions subsequently to prevent the virus regaining a foothold.


----------



## weltweit (Dec 29, 2020)

Will the virus become another endemic virus? Or will it be possible to eradicate or eliminate it? 

The existence of vaccines does not guarantee eradication or elimination.


----------



## elbows (Dec 29, 2020)

weltweit said:


> Will the virus become another endemic virus? Or will it be possible to eradicate or eliminate it?
> 
> The existence of vaccines does not guarantee eradication or elimination.



The likes of Whitty assume thats what will happen. I try to be slightly more openminded than that, but its still a rather likely prospect. If an alternative approach with an alternative outcomes is strongly considered by many countries that are currently allergic to ideas such as zero covid (total suppression), it wont be for a long time yet, and then that final piece of orthodoxy could be laid to rest. Not very likely, its just I never say never, especially in a pandemic.


----------



## 2hats (Dec 29, 2020)

two sheds said:


> Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China - Nature Communications
> 
> 
> Large-scale population screening can provide insights to levels of ongoing SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Here, the authors report a citywide screening of ~10,000,000 residents of Wuhan and show that SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence was very low five to eight weeks after the end of lockdown.
> ...


The paper itself outlines many of its own shortcomings ("this study has several limitations that need to be discussed"), not limited to: low test sensitivity, 2 channel PCR, potential high false negative rate, low sampling rate (no continuous monitoring of subjects; not surprising if you have millions!). No discussion of sequencing and consequences this can have for validity of results in the light of what we have learned since it was published.

Arguably the paper really tells us more about how effective a true, "stringent", lockdown is...


----------



## two sheds (Dec 29, 2020)

ta elbows and  2hats I shall go off and study that, I knew I wouldn't be disappointed


----------



## weltweit (Dec 29, 2020)

elbows said:


> The likes of Whitty assume thats what will happen. I try to be slightly more openminded than that, but its still a rather likely prospect. If an alternative approach with an alternative outcomes is strongly considered by many countries that are currently allergic to ideas such as zero covid (total suppression), it wont be for a long time yet, and then that final piece of orthodoxy could be laid to rest. Not very likely, its just I never say never, especially in a pandemic.


Vaccines are currently being administered to those in the UK most at risk and will reduce illness and death. They aren't yet known to prevent perhaps transmission. Unless everyone is vaccinated and travel severely limited, it seems unlikely we can eliminate the virus by vaccine alone.

I draw hope from the Wuhan shutdown, it was significant enough and for a long enough period that the virus ran out of hosts, infected persons either recovered or passed away and there were no new hosts so it was eliminated. 

I think the arrival of the UK variant may cause the authorities to revisit elimination as a strategy via stringent shutdown and control of travellers. It seems Tier 4 is not enough, perhaps they will have no choice.


----------



## HAL9000 (Dec 30, 2020)

*A recently elected US lawmaker has died from Covid-19 - the first member of the US Congress to die from the disease.*
Republican Luke Letlow, 41, had been elected as Representative for Louisiana's 5th district and was due to be sworn in on Sunday.
He announced on 18 December that he had tested positive for coronavirus and was admitted to hospital soon afterwards.









						Luke Letlow: Newly elected US lawmaker, 41, dies from Covid
					

Luke Letlow, 41, was due to be sworn in as a Republican Representative for Louisiana on Sunday.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 30, 2020)

Only 41.


----------



## HAL9000 (Dec 30, 2020)

Quicker pcr test, 


The main issue with the story, it came from a company press release rather than a science journal.  The company says they're  aiming for EU-wide approval of the test by March.



> GNA Biosolutions said its test is based on a new class of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology, which has become the global standard of reliable testing. Its so-called pulse controlled amplification(PCA) technology had proved to deliver 96.7% accurate results.
> 
> The new test has already had test runs at Munich Airport. The German health authority was checking the test results in a pilot study which should be completed in February, Chief Executive Federico Buersgens said at a news conference.
> 
> Unlike the widely-used PCR tests, which have to be analysed in laboratories and usually take about a day before results are delivered, GNA Biosolutions’ test comes with a portable analyzer and provides results for up to eight tests within 45 minutes, the company said.











						Germany's GNA Biosolutions offers new quick coronavirus test
					

Biotech firm GNA Biosolutions said on Tuesday it has received emergency use approval from German's health authority for its quick COVID-19 test that it says is as reliable as widely-used PCR tests but delivers results almost as quickly as an antigen one.




					uk.reuters.com


----------



## Yossarian (Dec 30, 2020)

cupid_stunt said:


> Only 41.



If he hadn't spent months completely ignoring COVID protocols while campaigning he'd probably have seen 42.


----------



## nagapie (Dec 30, 2020)

Harry Smiles said:


> I'm right in thinking in the UK, excess deaths this year are about 20% above the previous 5 years? I'm having a great trouble understanding why some relatively bright people don't understand CoVID is real and want the most obvious data





cupid_stunt said:


> Only 41.


I was thinking more along the lines of thank god, a Republican at last.


----------



## kropotkin (Dec 30, 2020)

2hats and others, thought you might be interested: I admitted someone last night who was 7 days post vaccination who was community pcr positive. I don't think he had coronavirus and think it was false positive. I contacted the PHE virologist who said it is possible : the pcr target in the community testing is just for the spike protein so it is implausible but possible that this was being picked up (but why would it be detected in mucosal surfaces?), but our in-hospital pcr testing has multiple targets and if only the spike is positive then it gets reported as negative.
Interesting if our confirmatory test is negative - we'll be writing that one up and letting PHE know ASAP! 
(well, I'll be a bit delayed as my girlfriend tested positive at 5am so I'm now isolating...)


----------



## Louis MacNeice (Dec 30, 2020)

.


----------



## Louis MacNeice (Dec 30, 2020)

2hats said:


>



Would that be this Andy Wigmore?

View attachment 246095


----------



## 2hats (Dec 30, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> 2hats and others, thought you might be interested: I admitted someone last night who was 7 days post vaccination who was community pcr positive. I don't think he had coronavirus and think it was false positive. I contacted the PHE virologist who said it is possible : the pcr target in the community testing is just for the spike protein so it is implausible but possible that this was being picked up (but why would it be detected in mucosal surfaces?), but our in-hospital pcr testing has multiple targets and if only the spike is positive then it gets reported as negative.
> Interesting if our confirmatory test is negative - we'll be writing that one up and letting PHE know ASAP!
> (well, I'll be a bit delayed as my girlfriend tested positive at 5am so I'm now isolating...)


Very interesting. Post first dose of BNT162b2, presumably? Of course, absence of S is a proxy for B.1.1.7...


----------



## elbows (Dec 30, 2020)

2hats said:


> Very interesting. Post first dose of BNT162b2, presumably? Of course, absence of S is a proxy for B.1.1.7...



I'm confused about the bit about community PCR testing being just for the spike protein. Unless I've misunderstood what 'community pcr testing' is referring to I cant quite get my head round this claim that community testing only looks for spike stuff, because if that were the case then surely S-dropouts would result in a straightforward negative result - there wouldnt be other components which still test positive and thus when combined with no S positive, are assumed to be 'positive but with the new variant'.

I was under the impression that some of the large PCR processing labs use a method which tests for multiple things including S, so can deliver data that can be used as a proxy for number of new variant cases. But the labs that dont use this sort of test are still testing for other aspects, not S, rather than only for S. And S testing positive on its own isnt up to the standard that would result in a proper positive case being recorded?


----------



## kropotkin (Dec 30, 2020)

2hats said:


> Very interesting. Post first dose of BNT162b2, presumably? Of course, absence of S is a proxy for B.1.1.7...


Yes, after the BioNTech first dose. 
I assume whether the pcr assay would pick up B.1.1.7 depends on the specific rna sequence it looks for and whether that spans the deletion. So some 'spike targets' would pick it up and some wouldn't...?


----------



## elbows (Dec 30, 2020)

From https://assets.publishing.service.g...947048/Technical_Briefing_VOC_SH_NJL2_SH2.pdf



> The UK has a high throughput national testing system for community cases based in a small number of large laboratories. Three of these laboratories use a three target assay (N, ORF1ab, S) from Thermo Fisher (TaqPath). Currently more than 97% of pillar 2 PCR tests which test negative on the S-gene target and positive on other targets are due to the VOC (cf. Section Impact on diagnostic assay below).



And I still dont understand where the idea that community PCR testing only targets S comes from, it doesnt ring true unless we are talking about some other sort of test that I havent considered.


----------



## elbows (Dec 30, 2020)

And to be clear, I say that in part because if community PCR testing only targeted the spike then it would fail to detect the new variant and that would be a massive oh shit moment with huge ramifications for disease surveillance.


----------



## 2hats (Dec 30, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> Yes, after the BioNTech first dose.
> I assume whether the pcr assay would pick up B.1.1.7 depends on the specific rna sequence it looks for and whether that spans the deletion. So some 'spike targets' would pick it up and some wouldn't...?


That could indeed be the case. There are numerous assays out there, variously with 1, 2 or 3 targets. Tests from different vendors can target different sub-units on the spike as well as a range of parts of the RNA, envelope and nucleocapsid. So all a bit hand-waving without knowing the specifics of what was used here.


----------



## 2hats (Dec 30, 2020)

elbows said:


> And I still dont understand where the idea that community PCR testing only targets S comes from, it doesnt ring true unless we are talking about some other sort of test that I havent considered.


Presumably by 'community' we are talking about some separate 'private' testing of some flavour here (which could be using a single channel assay) as oppose to the standard national testing (eg Lighthouse Labs, etc)?


----------



## elbows (Dec 30, 2020)

2hats said:


> That could indeed be the case. There are numerous assays out there, variously with 1, 2 or 3 targets. Tests from different vendors can target different sub-units on the spike as well as a range of parts of the RNA, envelope and nucleocapsid. So all a bit hand-waving without knowing the specifics of what was used here.



Combining that with the angle I've been going on about, and I would say its rather urgent to determine whether assays with only 1 target have been widely used as part of the UK system, and if so whether the authorities have deliberately not mentioned this when discussing the new variant?


----------



## elbows (Dec 30, 2020)

2hats said:


> Presumably by 'community' we are talking about some separate 'private' testing of some flavour here (which could be using a single channel assay) as oppose to the standard national testing (eg Lighthouse Labs, etc)?



I dont know, in my mind the term community testing is used to refer to Pillar 2 testing, ie non-NHS testing. A huge part of the current official national system.


----------



## kropotkin (Dec 30, 2020)

2hats said:


> Presumably by 'community' we are talking about some separate 'private' testing of some flavour here (which could be using a single channel assay) as oppose to the standard national testing (eg Lighthouse Labs, etc)?


It's the labs run by PHE accessed via test and trace and the app that seem to be using single-channel, according to my virology colleague


----------



## elbows (Dec 30, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> It's the labs run by PHE accessed via test and trace and the app that seem to be using single-channel, according to my virology colleague



It just doesnt sound right to me, and the most likely explanation is that something has gone wrong with what they've said or how its been interpreted.


----------



## elbows (Dec 30, 2020)

I mean if it were true then they couldnt use the s-dropout as a proxy indicator for the new variant, they would just be getting a tonne of false negatives rather than what they actually get from new variant samples, which is positives but with the s bit coming back negative. And they've relied very heavily on that for recent analysis of new strain transmissibility and prevalence, including on a regional basis.


----------



## Mation (Dec 30, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> 2hats and others, thought you might be interested: I admitted someone last night who was 7 days post vaccination who was community pcr positive. I don't think he had coronavirus and think it was false positive. I contacted the PHE virologist who said it is possible : the pcr target in the community testing is just for the spike protein so it is implausible but possible that this was being picked up (but why would it be detected in mucosal surfaces?), but our in-hospital pcr testing has multiple targets and if only the spike is positive then it gets reported as negative.
> Interesting if our confirmatory test is negative - we'll be writing that one up and letting PHE know ASAP!
> (well, I'll be a bit delayed as my girlfriend tested positive at 5am so I'm now isolating...)


Why do you think it was a false positive?


----------



## kropotkin (Dec 30, 2020)

Mation said:


> Why do you think it was a false positive?


Clinically didn't fit, enough that I'm suspicious it was false (for one reason or another- hence the interest!).
He had a normal CXR (often abnormal)  and his lymphocytes were normal (usually low). Infective source was most likely an indwelling catheter. 

We've had a few false +ve over the pandemic, but equally had a few with high viral load but completely asymptomatic- which he may turn out to be. It's all interesting...


----------



## 2hats (Dec 30, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> It's the labs run by PHE accessed via test and trace and the app that seem to be using single-channel, according to my virology colleague


Really depends on the specifics of the test(s) concerned.


elbows said:


> I mean if it were true then they couldnt use the s-dropout as a proxy indicator for the new variant, they would just be getting a tonne of false negatives rather than what they actually get from new variant samples, which is positives but with the s bit coming back negative. And they've relied very heavily on that for recent analysis of new strain transmissibility and prevalence, including on a regional basis.


AFAICS, all the (UK) literature on B.1.1.7 references data from Lighthouse (and affiliated labs) using the 3 channel Thermo Fisher TaqPath RT-qPCR thus far? Note: no PHE S dropout analysis for areas with low TaqPath coverage.


----------



## elbows (Dec 30, 2020)

teuchter said:


> Looking just at death rates, quite a few European countries where things had been getting quite bad seem to have had quite a sudden drop-off in the past week or two, and it can be seen in the all-EU count too. Is that real or just an artefact of delayed reporting over Christmas I wonder?



On a somewhat related note: Credit where credit is due, the UKs testing system that started off so shit is now even able to put countries like Germany to shame when it comes to sustaining numbers of tests performed over the Christmas period.


----------



## elbows (Dec 30, 2020)

2hats said:


> Really depends on the specifics of the test(s) concerned.
> 
> AFAICS, all the (UK) literature on B.1.1.7 references data from Lighthouse (and affiliated labs) using the 3 channel Thermo Fisher TaqPath RT-qPCR thus far? Note: no PHE S dropout analysis for areas with low TaqPath coverage.



Indeed. I'd prefer it if such documents, when discussing the Lighthouse labs such as Milton Keynes that use TaqPath, bothered to discuss what systems were used elsewhere, and gave proper details about coverage of all systems, where the new variant blindspots are using the s-dropout proxy method.

I certainly hope that those labs that arent using the 3 channel TaqPath system are using systems that dont rely on S detection at all, as opposed to only relying on S detection.


----------



## elbows (Dec 30, 2020)

Unless indicated otherwise I reckon its reasonable for me to stick to my prior assumption that tests which target S only are not part of the official test system. I dont have conclusive proof, but testing one area only would always be risky and bad for test reliability, and when I read things like the following from a Welsh document about the new variant, it all seems to point in the same direction as my assumption. My bold:



> Some laboratories testing for presence of virus in people using Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) can also detect the variant through failure of one part of the test – this is due to a phenomenon called S-gene drop-out. S-gene dropout is due to one of the mutations in the VOC, a two codon deletion at positions 69 and 70 of the Spike protein. This mutation, not widely present in other SARS-CoV-2 variants circulating in the UK, causes diagnostic primers targeting this region of the spike protein to fail. To identify SARS CoV-2 infection *a PCR test targets several parts of the viral genome*, and some diagnostic tests include a target in the S-gene as one of several used in the test. Failure of the S-gene in a test does not mean the test will not identify people who are COVID-19 positive as other parts of the virus genome are still detected. Based upon the low frequency of other mutations in this area of the spike protein circulating in the UK, the S-gene drop-out provides a reasonable proxy method for detecting the new viral variant. Some but not all Lighthouse Laboratories (LHLs) use the test that can detect the variant. Other laboratories, including Public Health Wales (PHW), cannot detect the variant on the majority of their platforms.



From https://gov.wales/sites/default/fil...l-variant-voc-20201201-23-december-2020_0.pdf


----------



## elbows (Dec 31, 2020)

I reckon its been a year since the first warning signs really started to show up on the english-speaking side of the internet:









						Promed Post - ProMED-mail
					






					promedmail.org
				




I used to read promed a lot years ago but I wasnt reading it a year ago so I didnt see that at the time. I'm not sure exactly when I heard about it first, probably early January, maybe via this sort of news story from January 3rd:









						China pneumonia outbreak: Mystery virus probed in Wuhan
					

Some 44 people have been infected in the central city of Wuhan, officials say.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## 8ball (Dec 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> I reckon its been a year since the first warning signs really started to show up on the english-speaking side of the internet:



I remember discussing it with my folks last December when I was home for Christmas and things were looking a bit worrying at that point.
I expect you were talking about it by then - might be worth a little search..


----------



## teqniq (Dec 31, 2020)

WTF?


----------



## platinumsage (Dec 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> I reckon its been a year since the first warning signs really started to show up on the english-speaking side of the internet:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Hopefully when this happens again, a global travel ban from the originating country will be in place by the time an article such as that is published.


----------



## frogwoman (Dec 31, 2020)

It's quite chilling reading articles like that now.


----------



## elbows (Dec 31, 2020)

platinumsage said:


> Hopefully when this happens again, a global travel ban from the originating country will be in place by the time an article such as that is published.



I would recommend such steps in order to reduce numbers. However I'm reasonably confident that it would still have been too late to stop the spread completely, the horse had bolted long before then in this pandemic, even if Wuhan was the original outbreak rather than simply being the first place where numbers grew high enough to be noticed.

Exhibit a:



> A British man who died with coronavirus in his lungs in January is now believed to be the first virus fatality in the UK – two months earlier than previously thought. Peter Attwood, 84, died in hospital on January 30 after coming down with a cough and fever before Christmas. His initial cause of death was marked as heart failure and pneumonia. But tests carried out after his death revealed Covid-19 was present in his lung tissue, making him the UK’s earliest recorded death from the disease. Peter, a retired company secretary from Chatham, Kent, first had symptoms on December 15, two weeks before China told the World Health Organisation (WHO) about cases of ‘viral pneumonia’ in Wuhan.











						Granddad's death shows Covid was in the UK 'much sooner than we've been told'
					

Peter Atwood started suffering symptoms in mid-December - a month before China told the world there was a problem.




					metro.co.uk


----------



## platinumsage (Dec 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> I would recommend such steps in order to reduce numbers. However I'm reasonably confident that it would still have been too late to stop the spread completely, the horse had bolted long before then in this pandemic, even if Wuhan was the original outbreak rather than simply being the first place where numbers grew high enough to be noticed.
> 
> Exhibit a:
> 
> ...



Sure, but I think it's obvious that extremely early and strict border controls would have given track and trace a much better chance of keeping total infection numbers within many countries in the tens or hundreds range rather than millions.


----------



## elbows (Dec 31, 2020)

8ball said:


> I remember discussing it with my folks last December when I was home for Christmas and things were looking a bit worrying at that point.
> I expect you were talking about it by then - might be worth a little search..



I dont think the general public were discussing it until January. Mid January was the point where the penny really started to drop big time, and it was probably around then when I first thought 'oh dear, am I going to have to be the one to start a thread on this?'. But I didnt start a thread, and then it was only a few days later that weltweit started this one, and the rest is history.


----------



## 8ball (Dec 31, 2020)

elbows said:


> I dont think the general public were discussing it until January. Mid January was the point where the penny really started to drop big time, and it was probably around then when I first thought 'oh dear, am I going to have to be the one to start a thread on this?'. But I didnt start a thread, and then it was only a few days later that weltweit started this one, and the rest is history.



I think it may have been continuing a theme from last Christmas where we were playing a bit of Pandemic and my nephews had Plague Inc. on their iPads come to think of it.

Somewhere in Jan, there was some talk of a "mystery pneumonia" (which I would have guessed was here, but I guess not if there was no thread) - then at some point in Feb it became clear that something really, really bad was happening and the Government seemed to sit on their hands for what felt like 3 weeks (might have been shorter, I was bloody enraged).

It's really hard to pinpoint the exact first time you heard about something when you've been hearing about little else for a year.


----------



## frogwoman (Dec 31, 2020)

*Just read on twitter that Peru may have a population fatality rate of 0.3%.  or around 100,000 in a population of 33 million. *


----------



## Cloo (Dec 31, 2020)

Israel is apparently cracking on with vaccination at a tremendous rate, possibly due the extreme amount of loud complaint that will ensue if they don't.


----------



## nagapie (Dec 31, 2020)

Cloo said:


> Israel is apparently cracking on with vaccination at a tremendous rate, possibly due the extreme amount of loud complaint that will ensue if they don't.


But sadly not extending to Palestine and Gaza. Might bite them in the bum considering the amount of workers that travel from the occupied territories to work in Israel.


----------



## elbows (Dec 31, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> 2hats and others, thought you might be interested: I admitted someone last night who was 7 days post vaccination who was community pcr positive. I don't think he had coronavirus and think it was false positive. I contacted the PHE virologist who said it is possible : the pcr target in the community testing is just for the spike protein so it is implausible but possible that this was being picked up (but why would it be detected in mucosal surfaces?), but our in-hospital pcr testing has multiple targets and if only the spike is positive then it gets reported as negative.
> Interesting if our confirmatory test is negative - we'll be writing that one up and letting PHE know ASAP!
> (well, I'll be a bit delayed as my girlfriend tested positive at 5am so I'm now isolating...)



I know I already replied to this a number of times already, but I was looking at some detail for another reason today and more signs that there is something very wrong with this explanation you've been given came up.

The following is from the results tab of the spreadsheet on this site:



			Percentage of COVID-19 cases that are positive for ORF1ab and N genes - Office for National Statistics
		




> Swabs are tested for 3 genes present in the coronavirus: N protein, S protein and ORF1ab. Each swab can have any one, any two or all three genes detected. Positives are those where one or more of these genes is detected in the swab other than tests that are only positive on the S-gene which is not considered a reliable indicator of the virus if found on its own.



So something is arse-backwards in the explanation you've been given. Tests where only the S bit comes out positive are not treated as positive cases.


----------



## kropotkin (Dec 31, 2020)

Well, i'm at home isolating now so will pick it up with the virology consultant when back. Perhaps something didn't come across properly or I misunderstood.
Anyway, the chap in question had a confirmatory positive from my test, so it really was just an incidental positive in the context of another illness- but not thankfully a 'false' positive due to the vaccine.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 31, 2020)

Tony Holohan says Level 5 restrictions could last until March | BreakingNews.ie
					

Updated at 10:35Dr Tony Holohan has told Newstalk’s Late Breakfast with Mark Cagney that suggestions that the restrictions could last into March were a possibility.“I can't rule that out, I couldn't rule that out - but at the moment, we have a four week opportunity. I know th




					www.google.com
				




Ireland could be in full lockdown til March
😳


----------



## elbows (Dec 31, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> Well, i'm at home isolating now so will pick it up with the virology consultant when back. Perhaps something didn't come across properly or I misunderstood.
> Anyway, the chap in question had a confirmatory positive from my test, so it really was just an incidental positive in the context of another illness- but not thankfully a 'false' positive due to the vaccine.



Cool, no hurry. I have found your experiences and anecdotal evidence during this pandemic to be extremely valuable, and I always like to blend that stuff with the theoretical, research & data side of things to see if everything matches up, highlight potential clues, and seek out possible assumption errors that may exist in the rapidly developed conventional wisdom about this virus.

So I only latched onto this S stuff and kept going on about it because something seems to have got inverted somewhere and I'd like to understand more, and test the possibility that its me who has gotten things the wrong way round.


----------



## elbows (Dec 31, 2020)

I suppose when it comes to false positives in general, the explanations I would first reach for would be stuff like a contaminated sample, a bad batch of sequencing reagent chemicals, some other error made during the lab analysis, or a test that isnt specific enough and might also pick up other types of coronavirus infection.

Anyway its gone past the point where I should shutup about this detail, especially as your case wasnt a false positive.

By the way, have you seen any confirmed influenza cases this season?


----------



## kropotkin (Dec 31, 2020)

Literally none, nor have I heard of any! No parainfluenza or human metapneumovirus either, both of which along with flu I'd have seen by this point in other years.
Which isn't a surprise, as the covid control measures will drop all respiratory viral incidence. 

Thanks for the link above- that was an interesting document from the Oxford researcher, and good to read about the gene targets the swabs use. Looks as you say that the information I got was dud- a research microbiologist found and spoke to the virologist for me as I couldn't get through, so probably Chinese whispers at play.


----------



## SpineyNorman (Dec 31, 2020)

With the longer delay between doses is there a chance we could end up with a similar result to not finishing a course of antibiotics? In that we end up applying evolutionary pressures that select for strains the vaccine doesn't work as well on? 

I don't know what I'm talking about so I'm probably talking bollocks but it's been worrying me since it first occurred to me.


----------



## teqniq (Dec 31, 2020)

This is pretty nuts:









						Some healthcare workers refuse to take COVID-19 vaccine, even with priority access
					

Doubts about the vaccine among healthcare workers could have serious implications for public health, say experts.




					www.latimes.com
				






> At St. Elizabeth Community Hospital in Tehama County, fewer than half of the 700 hospital workers eligible for the vaccine were willing to take the shot when it was first offered. At Providence Holy Cross Medical Center in Mission Hills, one in five frontline nurses and doctors have declined the shot. Roughly 20% to 40% of L.A. County’s frontline workers who were offered the vaccine did the same, according to county public health officials....


----------



## elbows (Dec 31, 2020)

kropotkin said:


> Literally none, nor have I heard of any! No parainfluenza or human metapneumovirus either, both of which along with flu I'd have seen by this point in other years.
> Which isn't a surprise, as the covid control measures will drop all respiratory viral incidence.
> 
> Thanks for the link above- that was an interesting document from the Oxford researcher, and good to read about the gene targets the swabs use. Looks as you say that the information I got was dud- a research microbiologist found and spoke to the virologist for me as I couldn't get through, so probably Chinese whispers at play.



Cheers for the info. That document was one of the first bits of analysis published. Theres a whole bunch of official UK stuff relating to the new strain on the following website if you are interested: New SARS-CoV-2 variant


----------



## elbows (Dec 31, 2020)

SpineyNorman said:


> With the longer delay between doses is there a chance we could end up with a similar result to not finishing a course of antibiotics? In that we end up applying evolutionary pressures that select for strains the vaccine doesn't work as well on?
> 
> I don't know what I'm talking about so I'm probably talking bollocks but it's been worrying me since it first occurred to me.



Quite a lot of our responses to the virus come with the risk of creating selection pressure that leads to strains of the virus that override our progress. I dont think its an avoidable risk, although obviously where mitigating actions can be taken to reduce that risk they should be.

Its a risk with vaccinations in general for sure, part of a broader subject relating to immune escape and the need for continual surveillance in this area. I dont currently have a view on whether the change to the dose timing regime will affect this picture, I've only thought about the broader subject as it relates to vaccines in this pandemic in general, and there is a risk of selection-pressure related mutations taking off for sure. Its one of the reasons they expect to play cat & mouse with the virus on this front on an ongoing basis, eg are expecting to have to tweak the vaccines over time.


----------



## Cloo (Dec 31, 2020)

nagapie said:


> But sadly not extending to Palestine and Gaza. Might bite them in the bum considering the amount of workers that travel from the occupied territories to work in Israel.


Yup, sadly of course they're not... and stupid because  as you say, they are very reliant on Palestinian labour.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 31, 2020)

Just announced here
🙁




"We are no longer in a containment phase"....

Batten down the hatches and stay indoors is the message. 
🙁


----------



## LDC (Dec 31, 2020)

This is the most 2020 story ever....









						Dozens of residents die at Belgian care home after Santa visit
					

Twenty-six residents have died and 85 more have tested positive for coronavirus since visit in Mol




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 31, 2020)

Lets hope people heed the advice.


----------



## BigMoaner (Dec 31, 2020)

teqniq said:


> WTF?



edited, did't read it properly!


----------



## Supine (Dec 31, 2020)

BigMoaner said:


> never really got on with the word "treason" but surely fits the bill. along with murderous, sociopathic, etc.



Human error is far more common


----------



## BigMoaner (Dec 31, 2020)

Supine said:


> Human error is far more common


yes, you're right - didn't read it properly!


----------



## BigMoaner (Dec 31, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> Just announced here
> 🙁
> 
> View attachment 246338
> ...


what do they mean by that? are they basically saying it's out of control and they've given up?


----------



## frogwoman (Dec 31, 2020)

Mexico’s Excess Deaths Pass 250,000 Amid Covid Outbreak
					

Mexico has recorded 40% more deaths than expected this year, according to a report on excess mortality in the country.




					www.bloomberg.com
				




That's just until the end of November, they recorded another 1052 yesterday.  It already has one of the highest death rates in the world.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 31, 2020)

BigMoaner said:


> what do they mean by that? are they basically saying it's out of control and they've given up?




I dont know. 
I think it means that its getting out of control in some way? Hospitals filling up. And numbers of people with the virus multiplying by the day. 
We are in a level 5 lockdown now til at least end of January and NPHET want the level 5 to go right to end of March. To allow as many get the vaccine etc and reduce the incidence of covid i  the community.
But with only 40000 vaccines a week it will take ages to get people vaccinated. 

I hope it does not mean it is out of control but....it's written in such a way as to make one think that is the case. 🥺


----------



## BigMoaner (Dec 31, 2020)

Sugar Kane said:


> I dont know.
> I think it means that its getting out of control in some way? Hospitals filling up. And numbers of people with the virus multiplying by the day.
> We are in a level 5 lockdown now til at least end of January and NPHET want the level 5 to go right to end of March. To allow as many get the vaccine etc and reduce the incidence of covid i  the community.
> But with only 40000 vaccines a week it will take ages to get people vaccinated.
> ...


yeh, strange choice of wording.


----------



## elbows (Dec 31, 2020)

BigMoaner said:


> what do they mean by that? are they basically saying it's out of control and they've given up?



Its the sort of language that was part of many countries traditional pandemic phase planning that existed long before this particular pandemic. I dont want to go into all the tedious detail about what a poor match for nasty pandemic reality such plans often were, but they tended to lead to awkward moments early on, especially in the UK, and especially when it comes to issues of testing capacity. In brief:

In the traditional plans the containment phase happens early on, when levels of infection in the community are thought to be fairly low. Often there is no genuine expectation that this phase will actually contain the virus, so the expectation in traditional plans is that at some point things get worse and the containment phase gives way to a mitigation phase.

Some of the practical response differences between these two phases tend to involve testing. eg in containment phase the low numbers involved mean that in a country with modest testing & contact tracing systems can still aim to formally test and trace a good chunk of community cases. In a mitigation phase the levels are too high for the system to cope, and even if it could cope the contact tracing side would seem like a drop in the ocean that wont be making a worthwhile difference. So that side of things is given up on, in order to direct efforts elsewhere.

The UKs failure on the first wave timing predictions and testing front meant they abandoned both the language and the original limited testing ambitions of the traditional pandemic planning, and tried to get away from some of the ingredients that had brought their initial response into such disrepute. So we ended up with a testing system that could scale up much higher, and lots of different language reflecting the desire to do local tier stuff or different sorts of alert levels to describe pandemic phases, no more establishment talk of containment and mitigation here these days.

It sounds like Ireland on the other hand has kept some of these traditional phase labels, and their limited testing capacity has required them to make a formal change for the criteria of who gets tested in order to cope with the extra demand on the system that this wave is bringing. It doesnt mean they are giving up, and whether they acknowledge it much or not, countries in general know that contact tracing cannot carry the weight of a large wave past a certain point, so I wouldnt call it gross negligence to abandon such efforts at the times of maximum infection in the community. Especially because such steps are not usually taken in isolation, they happen along with other changes that are designed to compensate. I have put an example of this in bold in the following quote about the situation:



> Dr Tony Holohan, Chief Medical Officer, Department of Health said: “We are once again in the mitigation stage of this pandemic. The alarming escalation in the incidence of the virus in the general population gives great cause for concern. *This disease is now widespread in our communities and as a result we are asking everyone to behave as if they are a close contact.*
> 
> “To support the testing system through this surge, we are no longer advising close contacts of confirmed cases to get tested. Testing and tracing is an exercise in containment and we are no longer in a containment phase. However, it is imperative that if you are a close contact of a confirmed case you restrict your movements and contact your GP immediately if you develop symptoms.



From Ireland ‘no longer in containment phase’ | Westmeath Independent


----------



## elbows (Dec 31, 2020)

Oh I forgot to say that an additional reason for the UK moving on to different language and phase descriptions is that one of our original plans phases was unfortunately titled the delay phase. And it was rather embarrassingly announced that we were 'moving into the delay phase' during the very critical weeks of late February and early March when delays in data, delays in understanding, and delays in tough decision making lead to a disaster that few in the country failed to notice. So that sort of language ended up being a gift to script and joke writers and a curse to everyone else.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 1, 2021)

Humankind has made remarkable progress against this coronavirus pandemic including producing approved vaccines in record time and discovering various treatments and better ways of dealing with hospitalisations.

I forget exactly where I saw this but I saw a debate that basically went along the lines of we were so lucky that this virus has such a low mortality rate, hopefully what we have learnt from this one (and will continue to learn) we won't forget for when a proper deadly pandemic comes along.


----------



## Aladdin (Jan 1, 2021)

Coronavirus: 1,754 new cases and 11 more deaths reported as hospital numbers pass 500
					

Nphet warns 9,000 additional new cases will be reported in coming days




					www.irishtimes.com
				





Out of control now here. 
Everyone is being advised to consider themselves as close contacts and operate that way. 

Shit.


----------



## Mation (Jan 1, 2021)

I was hearing yesterday from a friend that in France you have to jump through loads of hoops to get the vaccine. You have to see a GP first - I think at a separate appointment - and sign lots of paperwork, including a waiver that says fuck off if you get any side effects cos you knew the risks in advance.

I can't understand the reasoning behind the waiver. Either the vaccines have been deemed safe and tolerable enough to roll out nationally/globally, or they haven't (and they have). You'd expect some tiny proportion of people to experience adverse effects, but surely not enough to warrant a waiver? 

It just seems like shooting the whole country in the foot and making the whole process and uptake extra difficult.

And indeed a grand total of *138* people have had the vaccine in *the whole country*, as of 30 December 



What am I missing?


----------



## zora (Jan 1, 2021)

Picking up the subject of still scandalously poor PPE for health care workers, just found this from the doctor who first made headlines when she held a lone protest outside No 10 back in spring.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Jan 2, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> Coronavirus: 1,754 new cases and 11 more deaths reported as hospital numbers pass 500
> 
> 
> Nphet warns 9,000 additional new cases will be reported in coming days
> ...


Yeah, I was reading about this this morning - it looks pretty bad.  









						Ireland Covid cases surge as health official warns virus is 'absolutely rampant'
					

Some 9,000 cases yet to be formally reported as chief medical officer says biggest worry is rise in hospitalisations




					www.theguardian.com
				




Hope you're doing OK.


----------



## platinumsage (Jan 2, 2021)

Cloo said:


> Israel is apparently cracking on with vaccination at a tremendous rate, possibly due the extreme amount of loud complaint that will ensue if they don't.



I think their civil defence infrastructure is helping, coupled with managing to procure sufficient amounts vaccine and actually have them delivered already.


----------



## Aladdin (Jan 2, 2021)

farmerbarleymow said:


> Yeah, I was reading about this this morning - it looks pretty bad.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I've been self isolating since last Monday with a cough. No temperature or any other symptoms so far. I cant get a test til next week or unless my symptoms get worse. Hoping that I just have a bronchitis type thing I get during cold weather. What is frightening is the way c19 is spreading so quickly  And knowing how little it will take for hospitals to become overwhelmed.


----------



## frogwoman (Jan 2, 2021)

Second coronavirus wave hits Africa
					

The continent has dodged the apocalyptic scenarios predicted by many Western experts but now cases are surging in many countries




					www.telegraph.co.uk
				






> However, a dire lack of testing obscures the reality in most countries and some important research indicates there may be a significant hidden death toll.
> 
> A recent study by Imperial University London in Sudan's capital Khartoum said that about 16,000 coronavirus deaths had gone unreported. This means that just 2 per cent of Covid deaths if the city of 6m people have been recorded properly.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 3, 2021)

Use of electron cryotomography to provide insight into the motions of the SARS-CoV-2 protein spike arising from its conformational plasticity, potentially enabling virion dynamics to be simulated directly. 









						Revealing the spike's real shape
					

Proteins have a ton of character. Though invisible to our eyes, these marvelous molecules carry out millions of microscopic jobs throughout nature. As a scientific illustrator, a regular function of my work is to visualize proteins doing what they do. Thankfully, I don’t have to make anything up. Te




					blogs.sciencemag.org


----------



## quimcunx (Jan 3, 2021)

zora said:


> Picking up the subject of still scandalously poor PPE for health care workers, just found this from the doctor who first made headlines when she held a lone protest outside No 10 back in spring.




About time.  One of their biggest disgraces.


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 4, 2021)

Fascinating if quite daunting account of UK national recently going back tom South Korea during pandemic









						Thread by @koryodynasty on Thread Reader App
					

@koryodynasty: 1/ I thought I'd write about my experience re-entering South Korea, where I reside, during this global pandemic. It wasn't a 5 minute job like in London Heathrow where I was out in no time....…




					threadreaderapp.com


----------



## ska invita (Jan 4, 2021)

Any more concrete news on the "South African" strain and how vaccines might not work against it? Please quote/tag me...


----------



## 2hats (Jan 4, 2021)

ska invita said:


> Any more concrete news on the "South African" strain and how vaccines might not work against it? Please quote/tag me...


The problem is that the spike mutations in the 501Y.V2 variant (all ten of them) are in known, or strongly suspected, CD4 T cell epitopes. In other words, that variant may undermine T cell response whether naturally acquired or conferred through [current] vaccines. Work is underway to better understand the implications of those changes.

Note that, separately, there is some (not yet peer reviewed) in vitro evidence to suggest some SARS-CoV-2 variants develop escape mutations that subvert CD8 T cell surveillance (DOI: 10.1101/2020.12.18.423507) - a clear indication that CD8+ is playing an important role in subjugating an infection.


----------



## Aladdin (Jan 4, 2021)

__





						Procedures postponed at some hospitals over Covid surge
					





					amp.rte.ie
				




Not good in Ireland. 
Mr Reid (HSE CEO) said GPs are swamped with some centres seeing a 50% positivity rate. 

"Our hospitals have been working at 109% to 110% capacity so it's extraordinarily difficult for people they are very tried."

We are fucked basically


----------



## miss direct (Jan 4, 2021)

Someone I know from Istanbul has died of covid...another foreigner...leaving a 12 year old son behind.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 4, 2021)

2hats said:


> Initial results in an ongoing longitudinal study (of health care workers) suggest naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 provides protection against re-infection in healthy adults (65 years of age or under) for at least 6 months.


Another study appears to confirm this result (zero symptomatic reinfections of seropositive healthcare workers).


----------



## two sheds (Jan 4, 2021)

> A *longitudinal* *study* (or *longitudinal* survey, or panel *study*) is a research design that involves repeated observations of the same variables (e.g., people) over short or long periods of time (i.e., uses *longitudinal* data).



thought I should check


----------



## elbows (Jan 4, 2021)

Due to holiday period delays to data publication from some countries necessary to establish a UK figure, I have had to temporarily add England on its own to my graph of some European countries number of covid-19 patients in hospital.


----------



## William of Walworth (Jan 4, 2021)

India has approved two vaccines -- the Oxford/AstraZeneca one and another one developed within India




			
				Guardian headline said:
			
		

> *India’s approval of Covid vaccines triggers mass immunisation drive*
> *Green light for Oxford vaccine alongside domestic Covaxin hailed as ‘decisive turning point’ by PM*






			
				Hannah Ellis-Petersen said:
			
		

> At a press conference on Sunday, the drugs controller general of India said the decision to approve both the Oxford vaccine and Covaxin, which is produced by the Indian company Bharat Biotech and was part-funded by the government, had come after “careful examination” of the data.
> It makes India the second country to approve emergency use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine, known as Covishield in India, after the UK gave it the green light on Wednesday





> India plans to vaccinate 300 million people in its first stage of vaccinations, with priority given to 30 million frontline healthcare workers, police and members of the armed forces. The vaccine will then be given to those above the age of 50 and people suffering from co-morbidity illnesses. The vaccine will be given free of charge.
> However, the approval of Covaxin was met with some concern as the vaccine is still undergoing phase 3 clinical trials and the full results of the vaccine’s efficacy have not been published.



IMO the above is a good, interesting and detailed read ...... but is Covaxin being approved prematurely?


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 4, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> India has approved two vaccines -- the Oxford/AstraZeneca one and another one developed within India
> 
> 
> 
> ...


prematurely seem to be the main concern, something on the news last night about phase 3 trials not having taken place/been completed yet


----------



## 2hats (Jan 5, 2021)

SARS-CoV-2 induced immunotherapy - remission of Hodgkin lymphoma (perhaps).


----------



## MrSki (Jan 5, 2021)

Fucking hell!


----------



## Aladdin (Jan 5, 2021)

MrSki said:


> Fucking hell!





That's horrendous 🥺


----------



## klang (Jan 5, 2021)

MrSki said:


> Fucking hell!



poor poor people


----------



## Indeliblelink (Jan 5, 2021)

Indonesia going for a different route with it's vaccination program, inoculating working age people before the elderly, trying for herd immunity and hoping they can bump their economy earlier. Also due to Chinese vaccine not having been tested in the elderly and still awaiting approval.








						Why Indonesia is vaccinating its working population first, not elderly
					

As Indonesia prepares to begin mass inoculations against COVID-19, its plan to prioritise working age adults over the elderly, aiming to reach herd immunity fast and revive the economy, will be closely watched by other countries.




					www.reuters.com
				



As Indonesia prepares to begin mass inoculations against COVID-19, its plan to prioritise working age adults over the elderly, aiming to reach herd immunity fast and revive the economy, will be closely watched by other countries.
*WHY 18-59 YEAR-OLDS FIRST?*
Indonesia, which plans to begin mass inoculations with a vaccine developed by China’s Sinovac Biotech, says it does not have enough data yet of the vaccine’s efficacy on elderly people, as clinical trials underway in the country involves people aged 18-59.
“We’re not bucking the trend,” said Siti Nadia Tarmizi, a senior health ministry official, adding authorities would await recommendations from the country’s drug regulators to decide on vaccination plans for the elderly.
While Britain and the United States began immunizations with a shot developed by Pfizer Inc and its partner BioNTech that showed it works well in people of all ages, Indonesia has initial access only to the Sinovac vaccine.
The Southeast Asian country has a deal to receive 125.5 million doses of Sinovac’s CoronaVac shot, and a first batch of 3 million doses are already in the country.
Shipments of the Pfizer vaccine to the country are expected to begin from the third quarter, while a vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University will start being distributed in the second quarter.
“I don’t think anybody can get too dogmatic about what is the right approach,” said Peter Collignon, professor of infectious diseases at Australian National University, adding that Indonesia’s strategy could slow the spread of the disease, although it may not affect mortality rates.
“Indonesia doing it different to the U.S. and Europe is of value, because it will tell us (whether) you’ll see a more dramatic effect in Indonesia than Europe or U.S. because of the strategy they’re doing, but I don’t think anybody knows the answer.”
Professor Dale Fisher from the Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine at the National University of Singapore said he understood the rationale of Indonesia’s approach.
“Younger working adults are generally more active, more social and travel more so this strategy should decrease community transmission faster than vaccinating older individuals,” he said.
“Of course older people are more at risk of severe disease and death so vaccinating those has an alternative rationale. I see merit in both strategies.”

*WILL IT HELP ACHIEVE HERD IMMUNITY QUICKLY?*
By vaccinating more socially mobile and economically active groups first, Indonesian government officials hope the government can quickly reach herd immunity.
Budi Gunadi Sadikin, Indonesia’s health minister, said the country needs to vaccinate 181.5 million people, or roughly 67% of its population, to reach herd immunity, and requires almost 427 million doses of vaccines, assuming a double-dose regimen and a 15% wastage rate.
Some experts are skeptical about reaching herd immunity, as more research needs to be done to ascertain whether or not vaccinated people can transmit the virus.
“There could be the risk of people still capable of spreading the disease to the others,” said Hasbullah Thabrany, chief of the Indonesian Health Economic Association.

*WILL IT HELP ECONOMIC RECOVERY?*
Economists have argued a successful vaccination programme covering around 100 million people will help jumpstart the economy, as they are more likely to resume economic activity such as spending and production.
Faisal Rachman, an economist with Bank Mandiri, said that the 18-59 age group has consumption needs that are higher than other groups.
“They could jack up the economic recovery faster because household consumption contributes more than 50% to Indonesia’s economy,” he said, warning that rising COVID-19 cases in the country could also risk lowering people’s confidence.
The pandemic pushed Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, into its first recession in more than two decades last year, with the government estimating a contraction of as much as 2.2%.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 5, 2021)

Indeliblelink said:


> Indonesia going for a different route with it's vaccination program, inoculating working age people before the elderly, trying for herd immunity and hoping they can bump their economy earlier. Also due to Chinese vaccine not having been tested in the elderly and still awaiting approval.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting (though potentially expensive) experiment to find out whether the Sinovac's CoronaVac actually prevents transmission and not just severe disease...


----------



## Hyperdark (Jan 5, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> That's horrendous 🥺



Umm, Isnt this describing a positive affect of the Virus?


----------



## LDC (Jan 5, 2021)

Hyperdark said:


> Umm, Isnt this describing a positive affect of the Virus?



What? I think you need to explain wtf you mean by that?


----------



## elbows (Jan 5, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> What? I think you need to explain wtf you mean by that?



Indeed. I'm finding it hard not to jump to very bad conclusions about what was meant.


----------



## Aladdin (Jan 5, 2021)

Hyperdark said:


> Umm, Isnt this describing a positive affect of the Virus?



horrendous
/hɒˈrɛndəs/
Learn to pronounce
adjective
extremely unpleasant, horrifying, or terrible.


----------



## Aladdin (Jan 5, 2021)

elbows said:


> Indeed. I'm finding it hard not to jump to very bad conclusions about what was meant.


This fruitloop has been posting varying degrees of weirdness.
And they have a good grasp of English so they know what they're posting


----------



## danny la rouge (Jan 5, 2021)

Hyperdark said:


> Umm, Isnt this describing a positive affect of the Virus?


What the fuck?


----------



## Orang Utan (Jan 5, 2021)

Hyperdark said:


> Umm, Isnt this describing a positive affect of the Virus?


In what way?


----------



## Aladdin (Jan 5, 2021)

Hyperdark said:


> Umm, Isnt this describing a positive affect of the Virus?



You're a warped fuck


----------



## LDC (Jan 5, 2021)

Come on Hyperdark what's going on?


----------



## prunus (Jan 5, 2021)

I think Hyperdark is referencing the activation of anti-tumour activity by Covid infection, rather than the deaths of an entire ICU?


----------



## two sheds (Jan 5, 2021)

Yes I did wonder that.


----------



## Orang Utan (Jan 5, 2021)

prunus said:


> I think Hyperdark is referencing the activation of anti-tumour activity by Covid infection, rather than the deaths of an entire ICU?


That’s not what they were responding to


----------



## elbows (Jan 5, 2021)

prunus said:


> I think Hyperdark is referencing the activation of anti-tumour activity by Covid infection, rather than the deaths of an entire ICU?



Makes sense, and they made a simple mistake about which tweet someone elses reply was in regard to.


----------



## danny la rouge (Jan 5, 2021)

elbows said:


> Makes sense, and they made a simple mistake about which tweet someone elses reply was in regard to.


I really hope so.  I was struggling to find a charitable explanation, but that would be it.


----------



## Aladdin (Jan 5, 2021)

MrSki said:


> Fucking hell!





prunus said:


> I think Hyperdark is referencing the activation of anti-tumour activity by Covid infection, rather than the deaths of an entire ICU?



Nope. They responded to my post which was in response to the people dying of lack of O2 in an Egyptian hospital.

Maybe they can clarify their post when they are back on here.


----------



## Hyperdark (Jan 5, 2021)

Yes I was referencing the tweet before...the Wrong Tweet, apologies it looked like the fucking hell was a response to the post prceeding it, I dont actually see tweets without copying and pasting URLs due my  anti-twatter settings so I sometimes miss them (Note: No angry  shouty twats were harmed in this message)


----------



## Aladdin (Jan 5, 2021)

Hyperdark said:


> Yes I was referencing the tweet before...the Wrong Tweet, apologies it looked like the fucking hell was a response to the post prceeding it, I dont actually see tweets without copying and pasting URLs due my  anti-twatter settings so I sometimes miss them (Note: No angry  shouty twats were harmed in this message)



Explains a lot.
Never knew there were such things as anti twitter settings.
Interesting to know.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 5, 2021)




----------



## LDC (Jan 5, 2021)

Hyperdark said:


> Yes I was referencing the tweet before...the Wrong Tweet, apologies it looked like the fucking hell was a response to the post prceeding it, I dont actually see tweets without copying and pasting URLs due my  anti-twatter settings so I sometimes miss them (Note: No angry  shouty twats were harmed in this message)



Cheers for replying and clearing that up.


----------



## Anju (Jan 5, 2021)

What a decision to have to make. 

"As hospitalizations climb, the Los Angeles County Emergency Medical Services Agency (EMS) directed ambulance crews not to transport patients with little chance of survival to hospitals and to conserve the use of oxygen."









						'Human disaster' unfolding in LA will get worse, experts say
					

Imagine having cardiac arrest and getting picked up by an ambulance that won't take you to a hospital. Or having a medical emergency and languishing outside an emergency room for hours.




					www.cnn.com


----------



## Aladdin (Jan 5, 2021)

Positivity rate here in Ireland is 20.8%.
According to the covid app today. That's based on previous 7 days average.

6000 cases reported yesterday from testing. 

HSE CEO has suggested anyone with any symptoms more than likely has covid19 now and should self isolate. 

With only 40000 vaccines for the entire month of January it's hard not to see it as a complete and utter fuck up.


----------



## teqniq (Jan 5, 2021)

Meanwhile the underground party scene in LA is carrying on regardless:









						Threats and Restrictions Aren't Putting a Damper on L.A.'s Rule-Flouting Underground Party Scene
					

As virus cases and casualties spike throughout the region, furtive dance clubs have continued to operate and thrive with little law enforcement intervention




					www.lamag.com


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 5, 2021)

teqniq said:


> Meanwhile the underground party scene in LA is carrying on regardless:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Apparently two suspected organiser of the NYE rave in France might face up to 10 years in jail (probably just prosecutors bluster though)


----------



## teqniq (Jan 5, 2021)

What the fuck:


----------



## weltweit (Jan 5, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> View attachment 247228


Amateurs


----------



## planetgeli (Jan 5, 2021)

teqniq said:


> What the fuck:




This is what situationism looks like in a dystopia.


----------



## Supine (Jan 6, 2021)




----------



## 2hats (Jan 6, 2021)

Specifically due to B.1.1.7 Israel have changed their strategy, introducing a full lockdown (including schools), despite having the fastest vaccination programme rollout of any country by far.








						‘Final effort’: Cabinet okays 2-week lockdown to counter mushrooming virus cases
					

Full closure to take effect midnight Thursday, shutting all schools, non-essential businesses; daily cases hit 8,000 amid fears of unchecked British variant spread; 1.5m vaccinated




					www.timesofisrael.com


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 6, 2021)

Portugal has hit a record 10k cases today . It’s the north and the centre round Lisbon/ Coimbra that are still the drivers . Fortunate where I  am in the South that there’s not many cases . Everything is still open bar the airports


----------



## Flavour (Jan 6, 2021)

Italy will announce new measures on Friday but I think we can already see in the daily case numbers that the much harder Christmas lockdown here compared to the UK has had a real impact on bringing numbers down again.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 7, 2021)

The Australian government is as inept, corrupt and right wing as the uk government.  But even so there's a subtle cultural contrast that's made for a different lockdown narrative.

Obviously there's huge differences in covid transmission due to the space and weather we have here, but still, when and where a hard lockdown's necessary our experience of essential services,  lockdown rules,  and the consequences for breaking them has been much tighter than the UK.

I'm wondering if this is because the government have more confidence in applying stricter rules, because they know and trust from our regular large disasters,  that the population have the resilience and necessary solidarity to follow them.


----------



## teuchter (Jan 7, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> The Australian government is as inept, corrupt and right wing as the uk government.  But even so there's a subtle cultural contrast that's made for a different lockdown narrative.
> 
> Obviously there's huge differences in covid transmission due to the space and weather we have here, but still, when and where a hard lockdown's necessary our idea of essential services,  lockdown rules,  and the consequences for breaking them has been much tighter than the UK.
> 
> I'm wondering if this is because the government have more confidence in applying stricter rules, because they know from our regular large disasters that the population have the resilience and necessary solidarity to follow them.


Or, it's not actually all that much to do with the rules, and more to do with geography.

Spain also had very strict lockdown rules as I understand it.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 7, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Or, it's not actually all that much to do with the rules, and more to do with geography.
> 
> Spain also had very strict lockdown rules as I understand it.



Yes, I get what your saying  about the geography ( I think) but I'm not talking about the rate of transmission but the governments capacity/ confidence to make harder lockdown rules.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 7, 2021)

Some anecdotal reports of reinfection post-vaccination, however one should bear in mind full protection won't be achieved until a few weeks after the course is completed plus, trial data would suggest, around 1 in 20 recipients (of BNT162b2) are still going to get ill, albeit not seriously so. Likely that also means _at least_ 5% of the vaccinated can still act as vectors.


----------



## teuchter (Jan 7, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> Yes, I get what your saying  about the geography ( I think) but I'm not talking about the rate of transmission but the governments capacity/ confidence to make harder lockdown rules.


I know. But there are other countries which had similarly hard lockdown rules yet saw a much worse outcome. Spain being an example. Perhaps Australia's _timing_ of the lockdown was better, and significant, and that could be to do with the government but it could also be a consequence of geography. 

To be clear, when I say geography I'm not mainly talking about how spaced out people are, I mean things like controllability of borders and the number of people travelling to and from other locations.


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 7, 2021)

Quite a lot of speculation that Portugal might shut commercial businesses at 1pm at weekends . Dunno whether that would be regional or national though.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 7, 2021)

teuchter said:


> I know. But there are other countries which had similarly hard lockdown rules yet saw a much worse outcome. Spain being an example. Perhaps Australia's _timing_ of the lockdown was better, and significant, and that could be to do with the government but it could also be a consequence of geography.
> 
> To be clear, when I say geography I'm not mainly talking about how spaced out people are, I mean things like controllability of borders and the number of people travelling to and from other locations.



Ok, I get what your saying, and yes we have a huge advantage with the borders, timing  etc   I was commenting on what gives a government  the ability and confidence to actually make harder rules,  rather than what  the outcomes are based on geography or timing. Perhaps some of the confidence comes from knowing that they have the geography to enforce them.

Perhaps it's also something to do with the population always being drilled to be disaster ready. It's a way of life.

But geography doesn't explain the differences in things like what is considered an essential service, or maybe it does as in regional and remote areas services are already reduced . I also think that the Aus gov had increased confidence to close more services / businesses because they have the experience of seeing a large amount of people managing without during times of disasters, and more importantly perhaps not blaming the government because of the overall acceptance of environmental/natural disasters. There is a demonstrated compliance by the population.

I wonder what gave the Spanish gov the confidence. And did it not work because of their geography or because disasters aren't a way of life for their population..

Really I'm just wondering about why Boris Johnson ditthers so much I suppose


----------



## zora (Jan 7, 2021)

^^^Interesting. I guess here in the UK it's not been so much lack of confidence as lack of conviction on the part of Boris Johnson. The remark about the "freedom-loving British people" as opposed to the rule-following continental Europeans. Even in last Monday's (or whenever it was - the coronacalendar is getting a bit blurry) lockdown address, he couldn't help himself saying - and later tweeting - that he was sure that the British public was sick of getting more government instructions around this. When my perception was that the opposite is true - people were desperate to see some leadership, and for measures that would actually bring the situation under control. 
Having said that, when it all started back in spring, I was admittedly also wondering how well people would follow it, also perceiving the national spirit, if there is such a thing, to be a bit more rebellious than in say, Germany. So I don't know how well restrictive measures would have flown if the situation wrt threat of death to loved ones and threat to the healthcare system hadn't been so grave, then and now.


----------



## Pickman's model (Jan 7, 2021)

zora said:


> ^^^Interesting. I guess here in the UK it's not been so much lack of confidence as lack of conviction on the part of Boris Johnson. The remark about the "freedom-loving British people" as opposed to the rule-following continental Europeans. Even in last Monday's (or whenever it was - the coronacalendar is getting a bit blurry) lockdown address, he couldn't help himself saying - and later tweeting - that he was sure that the British public was sick of getting more government instructions around this. When my perception was that the opposite is true - people were desperate to see some leadership, and for measures that would actually bring the situation under control.
> Having said that, when it all started back in spring, I was admittedly also wondering how well people would follow it, also perceiving the national spirit, if there is such a thing, to be a bit more rebellious than in say, Germany. So I don't know how well restrictive measures would have flown if the situation wrt threat of death to loved ones and threat to the healthcare system hadn't been so grave, then and now.


one day boris johnson will have a conviction


----------



## Supine (Jan 7, 2021)

Great article on adherence to the rules and psychology









						Pandemic fatigue? How adherence to covid-19 regulations has been misrepresented and why it matters - The BMJ
					

As England and Scotland start another period of lockdown, we all have to come to terms with following stricter covid-19 restrictions, most likely for a relatively long period of time. [...]More...




					blogs.bmj.com


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 7, 2021)

I think confidence drives conviction.

The UK gov are completely misreading the room. Johnson needs to be seen as good cop, as the hero of his story, and seems unable to recognise the capacity and resilience of the population for doing it tough. 

Oh the irony ..


----------



## elbows (Jan 7, 2021)

zora said:


> ^^^Interesting. I guess here in the UK it's not been so much lack of confidence as lack of conviction on the part of Boris Johnson. The remark about the "freedom-loving British people" as opposed to the rule-following continental Europeans. Even in last Monday's (or whenever it was - the coronacalendar is getting a bit blurry) lockdown address, he couldn't help himself saying - and later tweeting - that he was sure that the British public was sick of getting more government instructions around this. When my perception was that the opposite is true - people were desperate to see some leadership, and for measures that would actually bring the situation under control.
> Having said that, when it all started back in spring, I was admittedly also wondering how well people would follow it, also perceiving the national spirit, if there is such a thing, to be a bit more rebellious than in say, Germany. So I don't know how well restrictive measures would have flown if the situation wrt threat of death to loved ones and threat to the healthcare system hadn't been so grave, then and now.



In the grand scheme of things the Johnson and tory related stuff is just an extra dollop of shit on top, strip that bit away and there are still lots of similarities to approach, bad timing and feeble strength of measures between large countries in europe and the UK.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 7, 2021)

Shit, someone working at a quarantine hotel in Brisbane has tested positive for the uk variant. They've been out and about in the community for six days.  Brisbane to lock down for 3 days from 6pm today ( Friday)


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 8, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> Shit, someone working at a quarantine hotel in Brisbane has tested positive for the uk variant. They've been out and about in the community for six days.  Brisbane to lock down for 3 days from 6pm today ( Friday)


And that's how it's done
/me punches himself in the face


----------



## 2hats (Jan 8, 2021)

Naturally acquired immunity (various B and T cell responses) now measured for up to 8 months in some individuals - it can vary to a fair degree though and that might be down to the initial viral load and thus immune response. Preprint - DOI: 10.1126/science.abf4063.


----------



## planetgeli (Jan 8, 2021)

Lesotho, landlocked by South Africa, was the last African country to record a case. They are now overwhelmed, trapped by economic hardship, a reliance on South African workers, and a Christmas that saw a lot of migration mixed in with the new South African variant.









						'We can't cope': Lesotho faces Covid-19 disaster after quarantine failures
					

Rise in cases reported after workers returned from South Africa for Christmas, with many crossing illegally to avoid tests




					www.theguardian.com
				




A couple of things stand out.



> A Lesotho government source told the Guardian authorities had stopped quarantining travellers because most of those sent to the facilities were not showing symptoms. He said it was decided that seriously ill patients would be sent to hospital. However, the hospitals are also overwhelmed.
> 
> 
> 
> “We did away with quarantine facilities in June because most of the people sent there were not even showing signs, hence it was a strain on our already thin budget. It was decided that only those who were seriously ill would be sent to hospital. We now owe them [the quarantine centres] over R100m rand (about £4.8m),” the source said.





> Of about 130,000 people who have entered Lesotho from South Africa since the beginning of December, just 20% had Covid clearance certificates and only about 39,000 were tested for the virus. *Thousands more people are believed to have crossed the border illicitly, unable to afford the 800-rand (£38) Covid-19 test, and seven bodies were recovered from the Mohokare River in the last week of December. Police say others are still missing.
> *


----------



## frogwoman (Jan 8, 2021)

My mum's brother lives in SA and says the situation is desperate


----------



## 2hats (Jan 8, 2021)

Israel have now vaccinated 20% of the population and expect a plateau in the critically ill within the coming week. Still enforcing a lockdown to ensure B.1.1.7 doesn't outrun the programme.


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 8, 2021)

The county where  I am got moved to high risk so the weekend ends at 1pm both days . ( there’s another tier above us ) . Speculation here in Portugal about a one week long set of restrictions .


----------



## frogwoman (Jan 8, 2021)

wiki Spanish Flu article said:
			
		

> In Brazil, 300,000 died, including president Rodrigues Alves.[151]



Looking very likely that this could be comparable. Brazil have already had more than 200000 die


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 9, 2021)

So they've locked down Brisbane for 3 days and have managed to trace all of the original infected girls contacts and quarantine them. Now they are tracing possible casual contacts. There's been no new cases overnight. Immidiete changes have been made so that all workers in quarantine hotels ( which are full of Australians who've managed to get back from overseas) get tested daily not weekly now. And across the whole country they've halved ( or more) the number of returning Australians allowed back.









						Case of COVID-19 variant dashes hopes and 'false sense of security'
					

As Queensland races to contact trace its confirmed case of a highly transmissible COVID-19 variant, experts warn Australians need to be ready for sharp and swift lockdowns.




					www.abc.net.au
				





One of the issues that happened was that by giving people 12 hours notice of the lockdown, a  lot of people apparently left Brisbane for the weekend to go to the gold coast or sunshine coast to avoid it.. obviously a bad thing.

So last night Victoria locked down it's borders to anyone from qld with 15 minutes notice

Victorians in Brisbane facing another lockdown after border closure

This morning it has also transpired that a uk returne who had been in quarantine and had a negative result after 10 days, flew to QLD but authorities are now saying that she was allowed to leave too early and a last test result has shown she is positive for the uk varient. Apparently there's not much risk involved , but that it happened has immideilty changed rules for people exiting quarantine, for the better.

This is qlds chief medical officer this morning. It's occured to me that whilst "all* Australian announcements and information such as this are always accompanied by a deaf and hard of hearing translator, the ones I've seen from the uk - such as johnson's speech the other day arent- surely I'm wrong about that ?









						Low-risk positive case with new UK strain travelled to Queensland from Melbourne
					

Queensland's Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young says a woman who tested positive to the new strain of COVID-19 from the UK travelled from Melbourne to Brisbane, but she stressed that authorities regard the case as very low risk.




					mobile.abc.net.au


----------



## 2hats (Jan 9, 2021)

Denmark reportedly has given everyone in care homes there their first vaccination dose.


----------



## 8ball (Jan 9, 2021)

2hats said:


> Israel have now vaccinated 20% of the population and expect a plateau in the critically ill within the coming week. Still enforcing a lockdown to ensure B.1.1.7 doesn't outrun the programme.




That graphic is quite encouraging in that we're not really quite as shit as I expected.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 9, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> This is qlds chief medical officer this morning. It's occured to me that whilst "all* Australian announcements and information such as this are always accompanied by a deaf and hard of hearing translator, the ones I've seen from the uk - such as johnson's speech the other day arent- surely I'm wrong about that ?



Johnson's announcements & Downing Street press conferences are broadcast on the BBC News channel with a sign translator and IIRC sub-titles too, which is available on all platforms - Freeview, Freeset, Sky, Virgin, BT, etc. etc. So, other channels, like BBC1 & Sky News, don't need too.


----------



## og ogilby (Jan 9, 2021)

8ball said:


> That graphic is quite encouraging in that we're not really quite as shit as I expected.


But didn't we have quite a head start on most other countries?


----------



## a_chap (Jan 9, 2021)

Remember when Fauci warned that the US could hit 100,000 new cases per day?


----------



## 2hats (Jan 9, 2021)

8ball said:


> That graphic is quite encouraging in that we're not really quite as shit as I expected.


Until you consider the trend - we started at the top and have gradually slid down it ever since.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 9, 2021)

Upcoming WHO mission to Wuhan to investigate the origins of Covid-19.








						China Says "Ready" For WHO Experts On Mission To Probe Covid Origins
					

China confirmed Saturday that preparations were still ongoing for a World Health Organization mission to Wuhan to investigate the origins of Covid-19, following a rare rebuke from the UN body over a delay to the long-planned trip.




					www.ndtv.com


----------



## weltweit (Jan 9, 2021)

Yes 2hats initially the Chinese regime failed to provide permissions for the visiting WHO team, I think this is the second or third attempt. I hope they get the required access and get to learn what they are after, but I fear China is not fully cooperating yet. It would also be interesting if they could discover proper stats on the outbreak in Wuhan as I think the published stats can't be honest.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 10, 2021)

Queensland, no new confirmed cases over night.


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Jan 10, 2021)

Devi Sridhar: The UK needs a zero-Covid strategy to prevent endless lockdowns
					

To avoid restrictions next winter, the UK must seek to eliminate the virus, not merely suppress it, argues the Edinburgh professor of global public health.




					www.newstatesman.com


----------



## LDC (Jan 10, 2021)

Not sure where this is best, but anyway, some really interesting stuff re: vaccines and general bonkers alternative health stuff in Germany which we've discussed somewhere.









						Ginger root and meteorite dust: the Steiner ‘Covid cures’ offered in Germany
					

The movement best known for its schools is firmly entrenched within the German health sector




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## 2hats (Jan 10, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Not sure where this is best, but anyway, some really interesting stuff re: vaccines and general bonkers alternative health stuff in Germany which we've discussed somewhere.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Wrong thread surely? Feed it to one of our loons in conspiracy corner.


----------



## LDC (Jan 10, 2021)

2hats said:


> Wrong thread surely? Feed it to one of our loons in conspiracy corner.



It's not _quite_ conspiracy though but maybe you're right. Thought it was on this thread we discussed cultural/national attitudes for stuff around vaccinations and health?


----------



## two sheds (Jan 10, 2021)

2hats said:


> Wrong thread surely? Feed it to one of our loons in conspiracy corner.



I done that already


----------



## 2hats (Jan 10, 2021)

Needs much further investigation with controls, in particular for patients recovering from COVID. Though might incentivise some to mask up, distance and get vaccinated.


> Collectively, our findings provide direct evidence that SARS-CoV-2 can infect the testis and germ cells, indicating the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on spermatogenesis and male fertility. Nevertheless, further study is essential to reveal the underlying mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 infection of testicular cells and the correlation of testis infection with the clinical course of COVID-19.


_Pathological and molecular examinations of postmortem testis biopsies reveal SARS-CoV-2 infection in the testis and spermatogenesis damage in COVID-19 patients_, DOI: 10.1038/s41423-020-00604-5


----------



## frogwoman (Jan 10, 2021)

I've been doing some courses with an online Jewish learning school based in South Africa that my dad's friend from when he was at school there told me about. I hadn't heard about when they were starting back this year and sent the administrator an email, and had no response. Then this evening I heard back from her saying she hadn't replied or had time to look at any emails because her family had been very unwell with Covid, and some of them had died.


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 10, 2021)

RTP which is the Portuguese State Broadcaster reporting that from Thursday there will be a national confinement for 15 days and then a review




> The country is expected to enter general confinement at 12:00 am next Thursday. The calendar is already designed.
> On Tuesday morning the meeting with specialists takes place at Infarmed's headquarters.
> 
> In the afternoon, the President of the Republic receives parties with a parliamentary seat and issues a decree for a new state of emergency that should be in force for 15 days.
> ...


----------



## Mation (Jan 11, 2021)

Mation said:


> I was hearing yesterday from a friend that in France you have to jump through loads of hoops to get the vaccine. You have to see a GP first - I think at a separate appointment - and sign lots of paperwork, including a waiver that says fuck off if you get any side effects cos you knew the risks in advance.
> 
> I can't understand the reasoning behind the waiver. Either the vaccines have been deemed safe and tolerable enough to roll out nationally/globally, or they haven't (and they have). You'd expect some tiny proportion of people to experience adverse effects, but surely not enough to warrant a waiver?
> 
> ...



A bit more on that, here (from a couple of days ago):
_



			A sluggish start is being blamed on bureaucracy and vaccine scepticism, writes *Hugh Schofield*, in Paris.
		
Click to expand...

_


> ... After the first week, when neighbouring Germany had inoculated around 250,000 people, France was on a mere 530. By Friday, the figure had gone up to *45,500* - still so small as to be statistically meaningless.
> 
> So why has it taken so long for France to put the plan into action? It is not as if the authorities did not have time to prepare. And it is certainly not a question of a lack of vaccine. In fact, more than a million Pfizer doses are already in cold storage, waiting to be used.
> 
> ...



(But it's only just occurred to me that my friend probably meant consent form, rather than waiver.)


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 11, 2021)

Deffo looks like Wednesday midnight for confinement . Formal announcement expected Wed tea time. Initially for 15 days and then reviewed as according to the constitution. Supermarkets etc will be open but no news on takeaways from cafes and restaurants. There isn’t a huge amount of home delivery services and there are very few places that are normally takeaway only so not like the U.K. . We’ve just started  the Presidential election voting so be interesting to see if the left pick up anything on campaigning for better lay off pay .


----------



## Mation (Jan 11, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Deffo looks like Wednesday midnight for confinement . Formal announcement expected Wed tea time. Initially for 15 days and then reviewed as according to the constitution. Supermarkets etc will be open but no news on takeaways from cafes and restaurants. There isn’t a huge amount of home delivery services and there are very few places that are normally takeaway only so not like the U.K. . We’ve just started  the Presidential election voting so be interesting to see if the left pick up anything on campaigning for better lay off pay .


Where?

E2a: Just saw the post 3 above this one!


----------



## frogwoman (Jan 11, 2021)

Covid-19 chaos in Zimbabwe | Citypress
					

In Zimbabwe’s capital, Harare, the main funeral parlours and cemeteries are overrun and the city’s biggest hospital is in a shambles, while the Beitbridge border with South Africa is a mess.




					www.news24.com
				




Unfortunately it seems that the predictions that some African countries had escaped the pandemic due to greater immunity etc might not be true  

Zimbabwe has had a rise in Covid infections and some people have tried to flee to South Africa to escape the lockdown, unfortunately this has led to a lot of economic hardship, and with this plus people being deported back over the border, Covid is just spreading even more


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 11, 2021)

frogwoman said:


> Covid-19 chaos in Zimbabwe | Citypress
> 
> 
> In Zimbabwe’s capital, Harare, the main funeral parlours and cemeteries are overrun and the city’s biggest hospital is in a shambles, while the Beitbridge border with South Africa is a mess.
> ...


Yep, there was something about Lesotho the other day as well, :/


----------



## weltweit (Jan 11, 2021)

South Africa is having a hard time especially with their own variant.

‘South Africa is going to get a third wave of coronavirus, even a fourth’ | South Africa | The Guardian


> ‘South Africa is going to get a third wave of coronavirus, even a fourth’
> Covid fatigue, super-spreader events and a virulent local variant of the virus put economy and healthcare in crisis
> 
> South Africa is struggling to contain a second wave of Covid-19 infections, fuelled by a virulent new local variant of the virus, “Covid fatigue” and a series of “super-spreader” events.
> On Thursday health officials announced 844 deaths and 21,832 new cases in a 24-hour period, the worst toll yet. Experts believe the second wave has yet to reach its peak in the country of 60 million, and fear healthcare services in the country’s main economic and cultural hub may struggle to cope with the influx of patients.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 12, 2021)

First confirmed case(s) of transmission from human to other primate.








						Gorillas test positive for COVID-19 at San Diego Zoo Safari Park
					

They are the world’s first non-human primates with confirmed cases of the virus.




					www.nationalgeographic.com


----------



## Cid (Jan 12, 2021)

Have we had this excerpt from Johnson's address to the One Planet Summit yesterday? (just noticed on the Graun newsfeed for Patel's appearance)



> Like the original plague which struck the Greeks I seem to remember in book one of the Iliad, it is a zoonotic disease. It originates from bats or pangolins, from the demented belief that if you grind up the scales of a pangolin you will somehow become more potent or whatever it is people believe, it originates from this collision between mankind and the natural world and we’ve got to stop it.



Yes, it has caused a minor diplomatic incident.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 13, 2021)

Preprint - saliva viral load appears to be a better predictor of COVID-19 disease progression. A durable, high viral load in saliva appears to correlate with severe disease and was also found not remain high throughout fatal cases. This is probably because saliva may better reflect viral loads in both the upper and lower respiratory tracts due to mucociliary clearance (in contrast to a nasopharyngeal swab which only samples the upper respiratory tract).








						Saliva viral load is a dynamic unifying correlate of COVID-19 severity and mortality
					

While several clinical and immunological parameters correlate with disease severity and mortality in SARS-CoV-2 infection, work remains in identifying unifying correlates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that can be used to guide clinical practice. Here, we examine saliva and...




					www.medrxiv.org
				



DOI: 10.1101/2021.01.04.21249236
Obvious implications for disease management and wider testing.


----------



## Mation (Jan 13, 2021)

Cid said:


> Have we had this excerpt from Johnson's address to the One Planet Summit yesterday? (just noticed on the Graun newsfeed for Patel's appearance)
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, it has caused a minor diplomatic incident.


Jesus. Fucking. Christ.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 13, 2021)

Cid said:


> Have we had this excerpt from Johnson's address to the One Planet Summit yesterday? (just noticed on the Graun newsfeed for Patel's appearance)
> 
> 
> 
> Yes, it has caused a minor diplomatic incident.



Speechwriter: "I've included something about the pandemic being a product of humanity's imbalance with the natural world."

Johnson: "Jolly good, I'll add a personal touch by saying something about the ancient Greeks and also making it racist."


----------



## ferrelhadley (Jan 13, 2021)

*



			A coronavirus vaccine developed by China's Sinovac has been found to be 50.4% effective in Brazilian clinical trials, according to the latest results released by researchers.
		
Click to expand...

*


> It shows the vaccine is significantly less effective than previous data suggested - barely over the 50% needed for regulatory approval.
> The Chinese vaccine is one of two that the Brazilian government has lined up.
> Brazil has been one of the countries worst affected by Covid-19.
> Sinovac, a Beijing-based biopharmaceutical company, is behind CoronaVac, an inactivated vaccine. It works by using killed viral particles to expose the body's immune system to the virus without risking a serious disease response.
> Several countries, including Indonesia, Turkey and Singapore, have placed orders for the vaccine.











						Sinovac: Brazil results show Chinese vaccine 50.4% effective
					

Latest results show Sinovac's Covid-19 vaccine is less effective in Brazil than previously suggested.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				



"50.4 % effective. Not great not terrible"
Just needs some feed water into the reactor.


----------



## brogdale (Jan 13, 2021)

Today's new fear; the Brazilian....


----------



## 2hats (Jan 13, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Today's new fear; the Brazilian....
> 
> View attachment 248652


See Covid Mutations thread from roughly here onwards.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 13, 2021)

A new study, published in the Journal of Experimental Medicine, underlines how ACE2 expression in the brain (in/around neurons) can lead to SARS-CoV-2 infections causing vascular damage, disrupting oxygen supply to surrounding tissue. This was demonstrated in both mice and on human brain tissue. Additionally, autopsies of COVID victims revealed microinfarcts, localised tissue damage and cell death in their brain tissue.




__





						Neuroinvasion of SARS-CoV-2 in human and mouse brain | Journal of Experimental Medicine | Rockefeller University Press
					

Neurological symptoms are frequently observed in COVID-19. Here, we examine the neuroinvasive potential of SARS-CoV-2 and demonstrate infection of neurons in th




					rupress.org
				



DOI: 10.1084/jem.20202135


----------



## quimcunx (Jan 13, 2021)

I've seen elsewhere a while ago that it could be better described as a vascular illness rather than respiratory.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 13, 2021)

quimcunx said:


> I've seen elsewhere a while ago that it could be better described as a vascular illness rather than respiratory.


Medically it's recognised as both. Has been for some time now.


----------



## quimcunx (Jan 13, 2021)

Good.

E2a I heard it once ages ago and wondered why I hadnt seen anything else about it. Not that I'd been actively looking but was a bit surprised not to hear more


----------



## Hyperdark (Jan 13, 2021)

Please get a grip people, Yes Boris is a twat amongst twats, but that statement re abuse of animals for ridiculous reasons is completely valid and has fuck alll to do with Racism.........It sometimes feels like this is a holding pen for the terminally offended and the 'anything a Tory does must be wrong' crew...very narrow minded


----------



## elbows (Jan 13, 2021)

Hyperdark said:


> Please get a grip people, Yes Boris is a twat amongst twats, but that statement re abuse of animals for ridiculous reasons is completely valid and has fuck alll to do with Racism.........It sometimes feels like this is a holding pen for the terminally offended and the 'anything a Tory does must be wrong' crew...very narrow minded



An honest and fair discussion of animal-human issues in the sense of diseases crossing over to humans would involve the leaders of nations focussing on their own countries and cultures risky animal industries, rather than falling back on tired old shit that points a crooked finger at other cultures and which hasnt even been proven in terms of the SARS-CoV-2 origin story.


----------



## LDC (Jan 13, 2021)

Mation said:


> A bit more on that, here (from a couple of days ago):
> 
> 
> (But it's only just occurred to me that my friend probably meant consent form, rather than waiver.)



My experience of France through friends is it can be mind-blowingly bureaucratic. I had a day traipsing from office to office with reams of paperwork for some minor things a few years ago, something that we could have done here online in like 5 minutes.


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 13, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> My experience of France through friends is it can be mind-blowingly bureaucratic. I had a day traipsing from office to office with reams of paperwork for some minor things a few years ago, something that we could have done here online in like 5 minutes.


Portugal is a bit like that , some stuff is online but others not . There was a sharp move to get more online when covid first broke out but the Portuguese do like a bit of paperwork.  Booking an appointment at many doctors has to be a phone call ( if they answer the phone ) or in person as they like or require to see your health number if card.  No online consultations either where I am so has to be in person . My local state health centre does have online appointments but it’s based on using the citizen card numbers which only being a resident I don’t have .


----------



## Cloo (Jan 13, 2021)

2hats said:


> Israel have now vaccinated 20% of the population and expect a plateau in the critically ill within the coming week. Still enforcing a lockdown to ensure B.1.1.7 doesn't outrun the programme.



Mixed results from Israel,  it seems:

Initial Israeli data: First Pfizer shot curbs infections by 50% after 14 days 

Will be interesting for the world to watch.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 13, 2021)

Cloo said:


> Mixed results from Israel,  it seems:
> 
> Initial Israeli data: First Pfizer shot curbs infections by 50% after 14 days
> 
> Will be interesting for the world to watch.


Their initial results are clearly underlining the need to take other precautions, mitigations, until well after the second dose.


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 13, 2021)

From midnight tomorrow for one month


----------



## Sunray (Jan 13, 2021)

Boris Sprinkler said:


> Devi Sridhar: The UK needs a zero-Covid strategy to prevent endless lockdowns
> 
> 
> To avoid restrictions next winter, the UK must seek to eliminate the virus, not merely suppress it, argues the Edinburgh professor of global public health.
> ...



This is what makes me so angry. 
Had they pursued a zero COVID strategy really aggressively at the start we might not have had the 2nd lockdown.
Now we’re all locked into our houses for months awaiting a high tech technological solution to a problem that had a simple solution.


----------



## Numbers (Jan 14, 2021)

Was just looking on Worldometer and it looks like it will hit 2 million today


----------



## frogwoman (Jan 14, 2021)

‘Worst nightmare’: Zimbabweans suffer amid rising COVID cases
					

Amid a deepening economic crisis, Zimbabwe’s healthcare system is in shambles as coronavirus patients mount.




					www.google.com
				




Tragic situation in Zimbabwe


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 14, 2021)

frogwoman said:


> ‘Worst nightmare’: Zimbabweans suffer amid rising COVID cases
> 
> 
> Amid a deepening economic crisis, Zimbabwe’s healthcare system is in shambles as coronavirus patients mount.
> ...



That article was hard to read.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 14, 2021)

Flights from Brazil, South America and Portugal being banned from 4am due to new variant


----------



## sparkybird (Jan 15, 2021)

Coronavirus en México: "En unos 50 hospitales no había lugar para mi madre y ahora se debate entre la vida y la muerte" - BBC News Mundo
					

La "segunda ola" de coronavirus en México está dejando a sus hospitales al borde del colapso, especialmente a los de la capital del país. Muchos como David tienen que peregrinar por decenas de centros médicos hasta encontrar sitio para ingresar a sus familiares.




					www.bbc.com
				



The situation in Mexico is dire. No space in public or private hospitals, people having to drive around looking for beds, hiring ambulances and nurses. And the huge cost of care even if you do find somewhere to get treatment, which is beyond the reach of most Mexicans.
Friends of mine in city I usually visit each year in central Mexico have just started a fundraiser to supply oxygen to the fire brigade who are in charge of refilling people's oxygen tanks. ☹️


----------



## Hyperdark (Jan 15, 2021)

Take a look how that nasty bunch of commie bastards just off the coast of Merrika are doing

...thank fuck we live in a democracy eh?


----------



## Badgers (Jan 15, 2021)

Not ideal 









						India's Kumbh Mela begins amid Covid concerns - BBC News
					

Thousands of Hindus arrive for the bathing festival despite warnings to stay away during the pandemic.




					www.bbc.com


----------



## frogwoman (Jan 15, 2021)

Now over 2 million dead worldwide (and that's only the official number). Absolutely horrible and awful.


----------



## elbows (Jan 15, 2021)

Covid-19 patients in hospital. Three different sorts of awful. I havent had time to look into Spain for months.


----------



## William of Walworth (Jan 15, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Not ideal
> 
> 
> 
> ...



*WTF???*    + 10,000 (+ more  's!!!  )

*"Glastonbury 2021"* (not happening etc.  ) would be safer, and not _just_ because of relative size 

*The Kumbh is Fucking Ginormous* -- my co-travellers to India, 2018, have been -- back in the day etc. (2011?) , and well** though they know and understand India, they said the overwhelmingness of this event was utterly scary!  
(There's a BBC 2 or 4 documentary about it somewhere ...... and '*A Suitable Bo*y' describes how it was back in 1948!)

**V & A South Asian Department, , one still there, one retired now.

Both know their Indian history, religions, antiquities and all the rest ......

One is Hindi-fluent these days, and the other can even read Sanskrit!

But, allowing a fest like that to happen this year of all years, makes Modi worse than Trump in India-specific respects IMO  x more .......


----------



## William of Walworth (Jan 15, 2021)

Saying that ... (  )




			
				BBC said:
			
		

> *Hundreds* bathed on day one of the festival, seeking to wash away sins.



and



> The mela (meaning "fair" in Hindi) *is being held in the northern holy town of Haridwar in Uttarakhand state*.



That reference to 'hundreds' above, make me doubt severely whether it can be a Full-Mela this year, or even a half-Mela .......

And the recent year-dates referenced (first bit, above the contents box) in this long and fascinating Wiki article about the Kumbh, make me even less well informed I think! 

Apologies for my misleading reactions in my previous post above .......


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 16, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> Shit, someone working at a quarantine hotel in Brisbane has tested positive for the uk variant. They've been out and about in the community for six days.  Brisbane to lock down for 3 days from 6pm today ( Friday)



That was from Jan 7th, and it now seems to be more or less done and dusted  

_"There is every chance we have contained this cluster. It's a little bit too early to say.

"It is looking promising, but I still ask anyone with any symptoms anywhere in the state at all, please, just come forward and get tested."_


----------



## weltweit (Jan 16, 2021)

Indian vaccination program started today with first individual getting a jab.


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 16, 2021)

A couple of snippets  of life with covid in Portugal 
Firstly in the cities enforcement is quite prompt









						Homem recusa usar máscara e acaba detido pela GNR. Veja as imagens
					

Detido foi advertido pelas autoridades mas continuou sem colocar a máscara.




					www.cmjornal.pt
				




Secondly in the countryside its very often a different story



> Coffee parties, spit pork, card games and lots of other fun that ended up with half the infected village.
> 
> They arrived from France and joined the cafe. They ate and drank, roasted a pig, passed the dishes from hand to hand. They played cards - in the good Trás-os-Montes way - late into the night. They wet their fingers with saliva to shuffle. They laughed a lot, had fun. And then they got sick. Even before the New Year - they should only return on January 3rd, 4th - they were already traveling to French lands.
> 
> ...


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 18, 2021)

Blimey I wonder if my stuff  from Amazon Spain and Next will arrive.....




> Prime Minister António Costa has announced new tougher lockdown measures for the country following the consistent rise in the number of cases in the country.





> In his speech to the nation Costa stated that it is “unacceptable to maintain the levels of circulation within the public as was seen over the weekend”.  He highlighted data from public transport and mobile networks which showed that over the past weekend there was only a reduction of around 30% in the circulation of people in Portugal.
> 
> The new rules include:
> 
> ...


----------



## frogwoman (Jan 18, 2021)

> The prohibition of the sale or delivery or click and collect service of any non food goods, including clothing stores.



 

Delivery? 

That's getting close to the Wuhan lockdown isn't it?


----------



## Badgers (Jan 19, 2021)




----------



## sideboob (Jan 19, 2021)

Badgers said:


>



I`d be curious as to who makes up the remaining people who are still traveling during a pandemic.  Must be important people.  I haven`t seen my family for 2 years and it`s probably going to be at least 1 more.  I could fly "home", quarentine for 2 weeks, have a nice visit, then fly home and quarentine for another 2 weeks, if I was made of money and didn`t give a fuck about possibly assisting in spreading the plague around the world.


----------



## prunus (Jan 19, 2021)

sideboob said:


> I`d be curious as to who makes up the remaining people who are still traveling during a pandemic.  Must be important people.  I haven`t seen my family for 2 years and it`s probably going to be at least 1 more.  I could fly "home", quarentine for 2 weeks, have a nice visit, then fly home and quarentine for another 2 weeks, if I was *made of money and didn`t give a fuck about possibly assisting in spreading the plague around the world*.



I think you may have identified a substantial chunk of those still travelling.


----------



## crossthebreeze (Jan 20, 2021)

frogwoman said:


> Delivery?
> 
> That's getting close to the Wuhan lockdown isn't it?


Asked my ex, who lives in Lisbon, and she says schools, nurseries, and universities all fully open, and plenty of people still having to go to work.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 21, 2021)




----------



## fishfinger (Jan 21, 2021)

2hats said:


>



He's doing a good job at promoting sensible behaviour towards covid. He said this in reply to one of the comments on his facebook page:


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 21, 2021)

2hats said:


>




He missed the opportunity to comment on his second jab - I'll be back.


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 21, 2021)

crossthebreeze said:


> Asked my ex, who lives in Lisbon, and she says schools, nurseries, and universities all fully open, and plenty of people still having to go to work.


schools closed now


----------



## elbows (Jan 21, 2021)

I still havent had time to look for Spain news but whenever I update my usual graph of people in hospital with Covid-19 it looks worse there, their trajectory is terrible again and they've exceeded levels seen in November.


For Germany I still just have intensive care figures from DIVI Intensivregister


----------



## Mation (Jan 21, 2021)

fishfinger said:


> He's doing a good job at promoting sensible behaviour towards covid. He said this in reply to one of the comments on his facebook page:
> 
> View attachment 250423


If ever I get to teach a face to face class again, I'm going to use that text for about five gazillion purposes.


----------



## William of Walworth (Jan 21, 2021)

I'm putting this story into Urban's 'Worldwide' coronavirus thread because, erm, 'elsewhere in the world' is where this story is set.

(Maybe this post would be just ba appropriate in one of the vaccines threads though  )

Anyway, it seems that India is seeing pretty low percantages of early take-up of both their vaccines 
*NB* : Article is also attributed to "Amrit Dillhon in Delhi' [byline] as well as the usually excellent Hannah Ellis-Petersen.



			
				Guardian headline said:
			
		

> *Indian hesitancy sets back world's biggest Covid vaccination drive *
> *Low uptake fuelled by fears over safety of vaccine and spread of misinformation*






			
				Hannah Ellis-Petersen said:
			
		

> So far the overall national turnout has averaged a lacklustre 64%, while in states such as Tamil Nadu and Punjab, uptake of the vaccine was as low as 22% and 23% in the first two days of the vaccination drive.
> The low turnout was attributed to a nervousness about safety among the healthcare workers who were first in line to receive the vaccine, as well as technical difficulties with the app designed to alert people to their vaccine appointments.



and :



> Two Covid-19 vaccines have been approved for emergency use in India, the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine – known as Covishield in India – and a domestically developed vaccine called Covaxin, produced by Indian company Bharat Biotech.
> *Covaxin has not completed phase 3 trials*, and so there is no final data on its efficacy, making India one of the few countries rolling out a vaccine still in its trial stages. However, the drugs controller of India said interim data from an ongoing trial of more than 22,000 people showed it was “100% safe” and effective.
> Nonetheless, some healthcare professionals in India expressed concerns that they had not been provided with enough data on the vaccines’ safety and efficacy and were nervous at the speed the vaccines were being rolled out.


----------



## Numbers (Jan 22, 2021)

weltweit said:


> New China virus: Cases triple as infection spreads to Beijing and Shanghai
> 
> 
> This comes as China confirms that a new strain of coronavirus can pass from person to person.
> ...


Over a year since this first post about the virus.  Crazy,


----------



## 2hats (Jan 22, 2021)

Latest mortality z-scores. "Extraordinary high excess".









						Graphs and maps from EUROMOMO
					






					www.euromomo.eu


----------



## teuchter (Jan 22, 2021)

2hats said:


> Latest mortality z-scores. "Extraordinary high excess".
> View attachment 250512
> 
> 
> ...


I happen to notice in the per-country graphs that Ireland appears to have a period of negative excess at the end of 2020...nowhere else does. What's that all about?


----------



## elbows (Jan 22, 2021)

teuchter said:


> I happen to notice in the per-country graphs that Ireland appears to have a period of negative excess at the end of 2020...nowhere else does. What's that all about?



I am not experienced with Ireland mortality data but I had a quick look and it sounds like death registrations happen slowly there, so that may have an impact. And even if it hasnt impacted whats shown in those charts, its impacted my ability to analyse it. Those charts show z-scores which are not raw numbers, and I would normally want to look at the raw data to compare.

But I cannot do that due to the slowness of their data. In fact that side of their system is so slow that earlier in the pandemic the official stats body felt the need to come up with some quicker way of getting estimates by proxy. It seems they had success by analysing the death noticed posted on rip.ie as explained in these articles which I found interesting:





__





						Measuring Mortality Using Public Data Sources 2019-2020 - CSO - Central Statistics Office
					






					www.cso.ie
				












						Excess mortality of between 876 and 1,192 recorded during March and September, CSO data shows
					

The excess mortality for the period March to September this year is estimated to be between 876 and 1,192.




					www.thejournal.ie


----------



## elbows (Jan 22, 2021)

Without the raw data of deaths by all causes for the period in question, all I can do is reort to my stock answer. You probably know the one by now, that less deaths from other causes are happening, and this will have a more profound affect on excess mortality stats at the time of year where deaths from flu normally hapen. In the case of Ireland we might expect that effect to be more pronounced if they had managed to keep Covid-19 deaths very low during the period in question. And certainly if I just quickly go by deaths data on Worldometer, it seems that Irelands Covid-19 deaths only started picking up again in a significant way much more recently.


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 23, 2021)

Serious figures over here,   In the last seven days, the country with the highest infection rate per million inhabitants worldwide is Portugal.,The same is true with mortality. Portugal has become the worst country in the world in deaths per million inhabitants, having overtaken the United Kingdom, with 18.24 deaths per million, while the United Kingdom has 18.10 per million.

Portugal set a new national record   *274 more dead and 15,333 cases * , Lisbon and the Tagus Valley have the highest number of fatalities and new cases, with 122 deaths and 6,135 new cases , North region, with another 55 deaths and 4,992 cases. In Alentejo  23 more deaths and 651 new cases,   Even here in the south, the Algarve there were over 400 new cases.

The UK strain is in Portugal (this is the one that is driving the numbers) and now the South African strain


> Preliminary data shows that the South African mutation is more dangerous than the one that emerged in the United Kingdom.
> It is transmitted more easily, especially among the youngest, can cause reinfections and may be able to resist vaccination.



The Brazilian strain is expected to be identified at some point here as well.

And there's a Presidential election going on .


----------



## elbows (Jan 23, 2021)

Another classic.









						Sri Lanka Minister who promoted 'Covid syrup' tests positive
					

Pavithra Wanniarachchi, Sri Lanka's health minister, tested positive for Covid on Friday.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




*



			Sri Lanka's health minister, who endorsed herbal syrup to prevent Covid, has tested positive for the virus.
		
Click to expand...

*


> Pavithra Wanniarachchi tested positive on Friday, a media secretary at the Ministry of Health told the BBC.
> 
> She had promoted the syrup, manufactured by a shaman who claimed it worked as a life-long inoculation against the virus.





> Ms Wanniarachchi is the fourth minister to test positive. A junior minister, who also took the potion, tested positive earlier this week.
> 
> The health minister had publicly consumed and endorsed the syrup as a way of stopping the spread of the virus. The shaman who invented the syrup, which contains honey and nutmeg, said the recipe was given to him in a visionary dream.
> 
> Doctors in the country have quashed claims the herbal syrup works, but AFP news agency reports thousands have travelled to a village to obtain it.


----------



## two sheds (Jan 23, 2021)

> AFP news agency reports thousands have travelled to a village to obtain it.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 24, 2021)

elbows said:


> Another classic.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Wtaf! Is this  the same  Sri Lanka which is reported on as being infamous,  because of its large  capacity to design and manufacture.copious amounts of dark web drugs !


----------



## Orang Utan (Jan 24, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> Wtaf! Is this  the same  Sri Lanka which is reported on as being infamous,  because of its large  capacity to design and manufacture.copious amounts of dark web drugs !


No, she is a person, not a whole country


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 24, 2021)

Orang Utan said:


> No, she is a person, not a whole country





She is the Health Minister for that country. Sri Lanka, a country whose health minister recommended a potion, brewed with no scientific evidence, yet have the education and infrastructure to develop chemists who can invent, manufacture and deliver other medications.


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (Jan 25, 2021)

Anyone got any idea what groups are behind all this rioting in the Netherlands?


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 25, 2021)

France: possible 3 rd lockdown looming decision by wednesday, also thinking of spacing vaccinations by 6 weeks to stretch supplies as there has apparently been an upsurge in demand recently.


----------



## Flavour (Jan 25, 2021)

Kevbad the Bad said:


> Anyone got any idea what groups are behind all this rioting in the Netherlands?



I'd imagine Geert Wilder's Party for Freedom isn't far away from the core


----------



## LDC (Jan 26, 2021)

Kevbad the Bad said:


> Anyone got any idea what groups are behind all this rioting in the Netherlands?



No idea about formal groups, but suspect a right mix of concerns and anger, ranging from legitimate anger over some aspects of the handling/financial support, through to covid deniers and far right opportunists. Very depressing to read a testing centre was burnt down as well. Some of these news reports really do feel like seeing the end of times unfolding...


----------



## MickiQ (Jan 26, 2021)

Start gathering the tar and pitchforks people 








						This Is How the Super Rich Are Beating You to the Vaccine
					

As health workers wait to be vaccinated, the wealthy are jumping the queue to get jabs on "vaccine holidays" in places like Dubai and Goa.




					www.vice.com


----------



## PD58 (Jan 26, 2021)

Interesting piece in the NS this morning about Manaus Brazil - in a nut shell 76% are thought to have contracted Covid between March & October last year but city is now in another major outbreak - thus questioning if herd immunity is possible.

http://view.e.newscientist.com/?qs=...652222a25da0366a3a71d7d62235142b9287191691350


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2021)

Also on that theme.









						New Coronavirus Variants Could Cause More Reinfections, Require Updated Vaccines
					

Science’s COVID-19 reporting is supported by the Pulitzer Center and the Heising-Simons Foundation.When the number of COVID-19 cases began to rise again in Manaus, Brazil, in December 2020, Nuno Faria...




					pulitzercenter.org
				






> How these new variants are affecting the course of the pandemic is still unclear. In Manaus, for example, P.1 might have nothing to do with the new surge in infections; people’s immunity might simply be waning, says Oxford epidemiologist Oliver Pybus. In a press conference today, WHO’s Mike Ryan cautioned that changes in human behavior are still the major driving force for the resurgence. “It’s too easy to just lay the blame on the variants and say it’s the virus that did it,” he said. “Unfortunately, it’s also what we didn’t do that did it.”



Whats being seen is fairly consistent with our limited understanding of how other human coronaviruses tend to repeat in waves every so often. Stuff that is sometimes vague and theoretical, that we will actually get to study in detail with this pandemic via genomic sequencing and much more study of antibody levels, infection rates etc than normally happens. If reality sticks broadly to the preconceived notions, then any herd immunity would be expected to be fleeting.


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 26, 2021)

The Health Minister in Portugal saying that 20% of covid cases are the UK variant and that its possible that this could rise to 60%. Funnily enough the Brazil variant that the UK is concerned about from travellers to the UK from Portugal hasn't had much coverage here at all.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 26, 2021)

Animal models (DOI: 10.3390/v13010132) hint at the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 could reach the brain via the eyes & olfactory bulb, remaining there and potentially triggering future relapses, morbidities.








						COVID-19 May Hide in Brains and Cause Relapses
					

A study shows that the coronavirus may remain in people’s brains after infection and trigger relapses in patients who thought they had recovered.




					www.webmd.com


----------



## prunus (Jan 26, 2021)

2hats said:


> Animal models (DOI: 10.3390/v13010132) hint at the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 could reach the brain via the eyes & olfactory bulb, remaining there and potentially triggering future relapses, morbidities.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Liked for the supply of information, but fuck’s sake...


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 27, 2021)

The distinctions between Hong Kong and totalitarian mainland China are fading away and in recent days, the territory has adopted a very mainland-style approach with sudden and complete lockdowns of parts of districts in Kowloon - nobody is allowed out until everybody has been tested, and nobody who can't prove they live there is allowed in.

Rumour is that this led to some very tricky situations for customers who were in the area's numerous brothels when it was cordoned off at midnight. 









						Covid-19: Hong Kong imposes sudden neighbourhood lockdown in Yau Ma Tei - Hong Kong Free Press HKFP
					

Hong Kong authorities sealed off a residential block in Yau Ma Tei between Pitt Street and Tung On Street on Tuesday evening to conduct Covid-19 tests. It is the second time such measures were imposed within a week in the district, although no notice was given during Tuesday’s operation. At 7pm...




					hongkongfp.com


----------



## SpookyFrank (Jan 27, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> Start gathering the tar and pitchforks people
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Definitely a good idea to share that link far and wide to help advertise the people offering this service. That'll teach 'em.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 27, 2021)

in other news:
China goes anal for covid testing
Which makes sense from what I remember reading I have been wondering why stool samples weren't used for the testing.

e2a: like this quote particularly 





> CCTV said on Sunday anal swabs would not be used as widely as other methods, as the technique was “not convenient”.


----------



## Orang Utan (Jan 27, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> in other news:
> China goes anal for covid testing
> Which makes sense from what I remember reading I have been wondering why stool samples weren't used for the testing.


I would be all too willing to provide a stool sample as long as I could personally deliver it to Johnson or Hancock in the manner of my choosing


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> in other news:
> China goes anal for covid testing
> Which makes sense from what I remember reading I have been wondering why stool samples weren't used for the testing.
> 
> e2a: like this quote particularly



I think I mentioned anal swabs here earlier in the pandemic and I got a rather mixed reaction so mostly stuck to bringing the subject up via sewage surveillance for Covid-19 instead. And I think when I mentioned anal swabs it was in the context of pangolins.


----------



## MickiQ (Jan 27, 2021)

SpookyFrank said:


> Definitely a good idea to share that link far and wide to help advertise the people offering this service. That'll teach 'em.


I think U75 is probably fallow ground for potential customers


----------



## Sue (Jan 27, 2021)

Should've locked them up.









						Backlash grows for ‘selfish millionaire’ who got vaccine meant for Indigenous people
					

Canadian casino executive Rodney Baker and his wife were initially fined C$2,300 for breaking public health rules




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Mation (Jan 28, 2021)

Sue said:


> Should've locked them up.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Nah. They'd view it as a charmingly novel experience. Take their money. All of it.


----------



## Badgers (Jan 28, 2021)

More miserable media 









						Doomsday Clock says humanity remains dangerously close to apocalypse
					

The symbolic Doomsday Clock — designed by scientists to measure how close humanity is to an apocalypse — remains set dangerously close to disaster at 100 seconds until “midnight,” it was …




					nypost.com


----------



## Dogsauce (Jan 28, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Serious figures over here,   In the last seven days, the country with the highest infection rate per million inhabitants worldwide is Portugal.,The same is true with mortality. Portugal has become the worst country in the world in deaths per million inhabitants, having overtaken the United Kingdom, with 18.24 deaths per million, while the United Kingdom has 18.10 per million.
> 
> Portugal set a new national record   *274 more dead and 15,333 cases * , Lisbon and the Tagus Valley have the highest number of fatalities and new cases, with 122 deaths and 6,135 new cases , North region, with another 55 deaths and 4,992 cases. In Alentejo  23 more deaths and 651 new cases,   Even here in the south, the Algarve there were over 400 new cases.
> 
> ...



Portugal fucked it.  No restrictions at all between Christmas and New Year, people came from all over to visit. Friend of the gf’s family all have it after someone visited from France, many similar stories.  Utter stupidity. Also the recent lockdown had stupid shit like a 1pm kerfew at weekends, so all the supermarkets were rammed in the morning. Schools only just shut.

Infections are at a level where track and trace (which was done really well in Portugal on the first round, a very low death rate then) no longer works due to the sheer number of people that would need to be contacted. Out of control.


----------



## The39thStep (Jan 28, 2021)

Dogsauce said:


> Portugal fucked it.  No restrictions at all between Christmas and New Year, people came from all over to visit. Friend of the gf’s family all have it after someone visited from France, many similar stories.  Utter stupidity. Also the recent lockdown had stupid shit like a 1pm kerfew at weekends, so all the supermarkets were rammed in the morning. Schools only just shut.
> 
> Infections are at a level where track and trace (which was done really well in Portugal on the first round, a very low death rate then) no longer works due to the sheer number of people that would need to be contacted. Out of control.


I posted up a little story about a small village where family from France came over at Xmas. Tbh honest the signs were there pre Xmas as well . Theyve just extended the state of emergency and schools now have to provide distance learning so I think that indicates that they aren't going back anytime soon and that the initial timeframe for a months confinement  was optimistic to say the least. They've also banned flights from Brazil yesterday. The UK variant is now 40% of cases.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 28, 2021)

Vietnam should prepare from 30 000 cases.

Got the link from an old friend who lives over there.


----------



## kabbes (Jan 28, 2021)

Bit of information for stats fans -- average office attendance rates for our various EMEA offices in the week to 26 Jan:

Saudi Arabia -- 90%
Turkey -- 18%
Poland -- 17%
South Africa -- 15%
Russia -- 12%
All other European countries -- 10% or less (most less than 5%, actually).  UK offices all 0-1%.

 Comments on a postcard.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 28, 2021)

Anyone watching the moves wrt the EU getting its vaccines that it ordered but which don't seem to be materialising. 

Isn't it a bit rich to be bleating about Astra Zeneca when the EU hasn't even approved their vaccine yet?

Seriously, looks like the EU is envious of the UK because we are vaccinating and they are not. 

As far as I can see, the UK placed orders with AZ first, approved the AZ vaccine earliest and then got the first vaccines off the production line as a result. The EU hasn't even approved the AZ vaccine yet, and German authorities are now bleating that it isn't suitable for the over 65s!


----------



## weltweit (Jan 28, 2021)

The WHO would like that frontline workers in all countries are vaccinated as a priority before people worldwide in less urgent categories are dealt with.

They argue until all countries are safe, no one country will be safe.

This is all well and good, except the - to be expected - free for all is happening where many countries are chasing an at the moment insufficient supply of vaccines.

We need a massive expansion in the production of vaccine doses and it might be tricky to see how that could be achieved at the moment given the complexity of their production methods.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 28, 2021)




----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2021)

Its a complex subject that gets into all sorts of morality and economic order questions that are uncomfortable for people, especially people who seemingly just want to get on with cheerleading our own mass vaccination efforts. I tried to start a conversation on this recently and the response made me less than keen to try again here at the moment. But since you raise it, I'll just say that one of the ugliest scenarios is if the UKs role in COVAX is mostly as a cover, something the government point to when defending themselves against accusations that they are taking more than their fair share of things. And I'll provide some links to various stories.









						Covax: How many Covid vaccines have the US and the other G7 countries pledged?
					

As the US doubles its donation pledge, here's a look at how the Covax vaccine scheme is progressing.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> So far, Covax has raised $6bn, but the scheme says it needs at least another $2bn more to meet its global vaccination target for 2021.
> 
> The UK government has provided $734m (£548m) and the US pledged $4bn (£2.93bn) in December.
> 
> ...



I believe there is a Times article, quite possibly the following one, that features quotes about how many more doses of vaccine the UK has ordered than it needs, and how it might eventually give them to other countries. But I cant read the article.









						Covid vaccines row: NHS has priority in Astrazeneca contract, insists Michael Gove
					

Michael Gove said that Britain had an “absolute assurance” that vaccine supplies promised by Astrazeneca would be delivered in full and ruled out allowing any t




					www.thetimes.co.uk
				




Earlier in January the WHO warned about catastrophic moral failure in regards vaccines.









						Covid vaccine: WHO warns of 'catastrophic moral failure'
					

It accuses richer nations of a "me-first" approach to Covid vaccine, and hoarding precious supplies.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




South African president Cyril Ramaphosa had things to say on the subject at the World Economic Forum digital Davos meeting.









						South African leader Ramaphosa urges rich countries to stop ‘hoarding’ vaccines
					

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Tuesday urged the world's wealthiest countries to stop "hoarding" vaccines and called for an end to "vaccine nationalism."




					www.cnbc.com
				






> “The rich countries of the world went out and acquired large doses of vaccines from the developers and manufacturers of these vaccines, and some countries have even gone beyond and acquired up to four times what their populations need,” he said.
> 
> “That was aimed at hoarding these vaccines and now this is being done to the exclusion of other countries in the world that most need this,” he added, urging major economies to release their excess stockpiles for distribution to developing nations.



And there is the situation with Israel and the Palestinians.









						Covid-19: Palestinians lag behind in vaccine efforts as infections rise
					

The Palestinian territories have only just started vaccinating, while Covid cases there have surged.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## weltweit (Jan 28, 2021)

Yes elbows it could be a little messy, I can understand countries wanting to vaccinate their own populations first, but it is true that we will only be clear from it once we are all clear of it. Otherwise infected areas could always produce a variant that escapes rest of world immunity and we would all start the sorry process again.


----------



## killer b (Jan 28, 2021)

weltweit said:


> looks like the EU is envious of the UK because we are vaccinating and they are not.


This is schoolyard stuff.


----------



## Raheem (Jan 28, 2021)

Badgers said:


> More miserable media
> 
> 
> 
> ...


A few years ago, I think during Obamamania, they decided that the time on the Domesday Clock was less close to midnight than it had been. Which sort of breaks the whole concept. Not so scary if it allows for time to run backwards.

Not that it was ever anything more than smug academic chintz anyway.


----------



## weltweit (Jan 28, 2021)

killer b said:


> This is schoolyard stuff.


The world needs a massive increase in vaccine production.


----------



## elbows (Jan 28, 2021)

Its also inevitable that vaccination issues would bring out the best and the worst in terms of the politics, the actions and rhetoric of states, international cooperation and international fallings-out.

Some countries showing much higher vaccination rates so far inevitably creates political pressure in countries that are doing less well. It would have been just the same with the UK if the boot had been on the other foot and we had been lagging behind various European countries. It doesnt help that since Johnson has made vaccination targets the latest propaganda gimmick in their approach (this is not a judgement about the benefits of vaccination or a dismissal of real successes, only of the crude nature of their target-based propaganda) they couldnt resist included crowing about how many doses we are administering to people compared to some other European countries.


----------



## killer b (Jan 28, 2021)

weltweit said:


> The world needs a massive increase in vaccine production.


Yes. But leaders of countries trying to secure supplies of whats currently a scarce resource are not 'envious' of Britain's vaccine programme.


----------



## SpineyNorman (Jan 28, 2021)

The idea that anyone is envious of any aspect of the UK pandemic response is fucking nuts full stop


----------



## Raheem (Jan 28, 2021)

SpineyNorman said:


> The idea that anyone is envious of any aspect of the UK pandemic response is fucking nuts full stop


True, but in future please include the punctuation mark rather than typing out its name.


----------



## SpineyNorman (Jan 28, 2021)

Raheem said:


> True, but in future please include the punctuation mark rather than typing out its name.


I'm not doing that

Period


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 28, 2021)

Queensland having the luxury of going  very cautiously on the vaccine front.


----------



## killer b (Jan 28, 2021)

SpineyNorman said:


> The idea that anyone is envious of any aspect of the UK pandemic response is fucking nuts full stop


Its just swallowing Tory propaganda


----------



## William of Walworth (Jan 28, 2021)

Spiney Norman said:
			
		

> The idea that anyone is envious of any aspect of the UK pandemic response is fucking nuts full stop


 



			
				killer b said:
			
		

> Its just swallowing Tory propaganda



I'm about to head to a vaccine thread for this, but it is true that despite criminally incompetent and rubbish Tories  , the vaccine programme here really isn't doing all that badly at all.

All else about the pandemic though : I have to agree


----------



## killer b (Jan 28, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> I'm about to head to a vaccine thread for this, but it is true that despite criminally incompetent and rubbish Tories  , the vaccine programme here really isn't doing all that badly at all.
> 
> All else about the pandemic though : I have to agree


Other country's government's being 'envious' of Britain's programme is propaganda.


----------



## William of Walworth (Jan 28, 2021)

killer b said:


> Other country's government's being 'envious' of Britain's programme is propaganda.



Didn't say it wasn't.
And I get the general point and agree.

I was saying no more than that the vaccine programme here is doing OK.


----------



## Raheem (Jan 28, 2021)

Vaccines are being administered by the public sector.


----------



## William of Walworth (Jan 28, 2021)

Annoyingly, I can't seem to find recent big chat about the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine and its distribution on the other vaccine threads on this forum 
**(or is there such a chat over on P & P?) 

Just for now, I'll link to these (IMO) interesting Guardian articles :

Daniel Boffey (Guardian EU bureau chief) reckons that the EU's own organisational failings about securing supplies of this vaccine are highly relevant. 

Nils Pratley (City/finance editor) reckons that it's best not to 'blame Astra/Zeneca for the row with the EU' [sub-headline -- second part of the link].

He also heavily hints in favour of someone leaking the contracts soon


----------



## William of Walworth (Jan 28, 2021)

Raheem said:


> Vaccines are being administered by the public sector.



Also not denied by me -- in fact I think I stressed that very point in earlier chats


----------



## William of Walworth (Jan 28, 2021)

(I'm still  about whether this here thread is the best one for this chat)

*But!*

This latest story by Boffey is potentially worrying :




			
				Guardian headline said:
			
		

> *EU could block millions of Covid vaccine doses from entering UK*
> *European commission says new mechanism will give national regulators power to refuse exports*





> Following reports of a lack of doses across the bloc, the European commission announced plans to give national regulators the power to reject export requests. The development raises concerns over the continued flow of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, for which the UK has a 40m-dose order, from its plant in Belgium.
> “There is a possibility in certain circumstances not to allow the export to come forward,” an official said. “Indeed, that would be the final option.”



Maybe this story is over-sensationalised -- see the words 'final option' there.

Nevertheless :



> Should the UK become reliant on home-produced vaccines, securing herd immunity through the vaccination of 75% of the population could be delayed by nearly two months from 14 July to 1 September putting thousands of lives in danger, according to analysis by the data analytics firm AirFinity shared with the Guardian.
> The European federation of pharmaceutical industries and associations warned that the commission plan could lead to a breakdown of global supply of vaccines. “Global supply chains are key to delivering vaccines to protect citizens … Risking retaliatory measures from other regions at this crucial moment in the fight against Covid-19 is not in anyone’s best interest,” the industry group said.



Food for thought!!


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 28, 2021)

Haven't kept a tally but pretty sure the UK massively over ordered vaccine


----------



## William of Walworth (Jan 29, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> Haven't kept a tally but pretty sure the UK massively over ordered vaccine



I can't recall how much of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was ordered.

But I'm near-certain that UK Government ordered 100 million doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine..

Which did seem a very high figure to me from the start  ..... am I right?

ETA : I'm guessing that you have to remember that the Oxford/AZ vaccine is _meant_ to be double-dosed.


----------



## mx wcfc (Jan 29, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> Haven't kept a tally but pretty sure the UK massively over ordered vaccine


And if we did?  The fact that the UK government ordered millions of vacines before it was even proven is the only thing they have got right so far.  It enabled AZ to get on with establishing production  facilities etc,  It is why we are ahead of the rest of Europe.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 29, 2021)

mx wcfc said:


> And if we did?  The fact that the UK government ordered millions of vacines before it was even proven is the only thing they have got right so far.  It enabled AZ to get on with establishing production  facilities etc,  It is why we are ahead of the rest of Europe.


not having a go at the shit-show-masters (for once) just agreeing that it looks like hoarding by wealthy countries is going on (and i include the EU block as a country in that)


----------



## William of Walworth (Jan 29, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> not having a go at the shit-show-masters (for once) just agreeing that it looks like hoarding by wealthy countries is going on (and i include the EU block as a country in that)



I do agree with this 

I can only guess how bad the implications for vaccines in developing countries must be, if there are production and supply problems in the UK and EU 

Saying that, should the biggest emphasis of all be upon fixing these supply issues?

Rather than kicking off a UK/EU 'trade war' about it.


----------



## Supine (Jan 29, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> Saying that, should the biggest emphasis of all be upon fixing these supply issues



Leaving AZ alone to get on with their jobs would be the biggest help. Remember mfg is working away under all the countries covid restrictions. These are adding stress to the system hugely - including higher than normal absence rates due to employees catching covid. Planting fake bombs at factories also doesn't help


----------



## William of Walworth (Jan 29, 2021)

Supine said:


> Leaving AZ alone to get on with their jobs would be the biggest help.



I agree with the above 100% or even 110%!  



> Remember mfg is working away under all the countries covid restrictions. These are adding stress to the system hugely - including higher than normal absence rates due to employees catching covid. *Planting fake bombs at factories also doesn't help*



 about that bomb story, but even more than that,


----------



## Badgers (Jan 29, 2021)

Bloody hell 









						Vertical graves for COVID dead in Brazil
					

In order to prevent a collapse in the funeral system in the face of a new rise in...




					www.canberratimes.com.au


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 29, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> not having a go at the shit-show-masters (for once) just agreeing that it looks like hoarding by wealthy countries is going on (and i include the EU block as a country in that)



It's not so much about hoarding, but more to do with wealthy countries throwing money at various vaccine developers & manufactures in order to ensure they had plenty of money to speed everything up, and hedging bets because not all vaccines are likely to be successful, some have already failed to produce the results required.

For example, the UK pre-ordered IIRC six different vaccines, only two are approved so far (pfizer & AZ), with a third (novavax) heading towards approval, that's a bit of a miracle TBH, and there's every possibility the other three may fail.

We certainly have more than enough doses on order, which means any we don't need can be diverted elsewhere, the UK & others are already committed to funding over a billion doses for poorer countries.


----------



## nagapie (Jan 29, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> It's not so much about hoarding, but more to do with wealthy countries throwing money at various vaccine developers & manufactures in order to ensure they had plenty of money to speed everything up, and hedging bets because not all vaccines are likely to be successful, some have already failed to produce the results required.
> 
> For example, the UK pre-ordered IIRC six different vaccines, only two are approved so far (pfizer & AZ), with a third (novavax) heading towards approval, that's a bit of a miracle TBH, and there's every possibility the other three may fail.
> 
> We certainly have more than enough doses on order, which means any we don't need can be diverted elsewhere, the UK & others are already committed to funding over a billion doses for poorer countries.


The UK actively kept prices of the vaccines higher than they should have been for developing countries. And they may have committed to supplying some but those vaccines aren't getting to those countries yet because we are monopolising them. Do not very yay us.


----------



## Sunray (Jan 29, 2021)

India did the protectionist thing recently. They are able to produce enough vaccines for the UK to reach heard immunity in two weeks. You can’t really blame them though.

The Novax approval will ease this tension. It’s a bit irritating the EU wants to divert vaccines away from a country with the worst death rate in Europe.


----------



## Sunray (Jan 29, 2021)

nagapie said:


> The UK actively kept prices of the vaccines higher than they should have been for developing countries. And they may have committed to supplying some but those vaccines aren't getting to those countries yet because we are monopolising them. Do not very yay us.



The UK has produced a vaccine that costs €2 a dose as they have agreed to not make a profit from the vaccine till the pandemic is over. The Pfizer vaccine is €20 a dose.
The Oxford vaccine will be manufactured all over the world. Brazil and Mexico have capacity to manufacture enough to sort central and southern America out.


----------



## Hyperdark (Jan 29, 2021)

killer b said:


> Other country's government's being 'envious' of Britain's programme is propaganda.




Just because a country/government fucks up almost everything it touches is no reason to deny it's few successes, this one may just be 90% luck, but there it is.
I see as much Propaganda in here as I do in any right-leaning forum/website.


----------



## killer b (Jan 29, 2021)

Hyperdark said:


> Just because a country/government fucks up almost everything it touches is no reason to deny it's few successes, this one may just be 90% luck, but there it is.
> I see as much Propaganda in here as I do in any right-leaning forum/website.


I'm not denying it's successes.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 29, 2021)

nagapie said:


> *The UK actively kept prices of the vaccines higher than they should have been for developing countries.* And they may have committed to supplying some but those vaccines aren't getting to those countries yet because we are monopolising them. Do not very yay us.



That's not strictly true, what the UK did, together with most western countries including the US & EU block, was to vote to protect patents, had we voted against it, it would have made different to the outcome.



> WTO decisions are normally reached through consensus. Dozens of low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) support the proposal. However, HICs including the UK, the USA, Canada, Norway, and the EU have rejected it outright, saying that the IP system is required to incentivise new inventions of vaccines, diagnostics, and treatments, which might dry up in its absence. They dismiss the claim that IP is a barrier to access, and argue that equitable access can be achieved through voluntary licensing, technology transfer arrangements, and the donor-funded COVAX Advance Market Commitment for vaccines.





> An EU spokesperson said: “There is no evidence that IP rights in any way hamper access to COVID-19-related medicines and technologies.” The UK Government declared that the world urgently needs access to these new products to fight the pandemic, “which is why a strong and robust multilateral IP system that can meet this challenge is vital”. The UK, by far the largest funder of the COVAX Facility, urges other countries to contribute more.
> 
> LINK



What we went on to do is contribute millions to the COVAX fund, and as Sunray has just pointed out, came to an agreement with AZ to sell at cost price to ensure the maximum number of doses can be delivered to poorer countries. The AZ vaccine is being manufactured all over the world, so poorer countries will be getting it from various supply lines fairly quickly, with the UK factories contributing more supplies in time.



> Unlike the vaccine produced by Pfizer-BioNTech, which requires ultra-cold storage, the AstraZeneca vaccine can be kept in the kind of conventional fridge used to store vaccines around the world, with a shelf life of up to six months.
> 
> Also unlike the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, AstraZeneca’s experimental vaccine is already a part of Covax, the global initiative that is hoping to distribute about 2bn doses to 92 low- and middle-income countries at a maximum cost of $3 a dose.
> 
> LINK



Sadly, we can't vaccinate the whole world within a few months, but the UK has been a leader in ensuring poorer countries get it as soon as possible.


----------



## Sunray (Jan 29, 2021)

Hyperdark said:


> Just because a country/government fucks up almost everything it touches is no reason to deny it's few successes, this one may just be 90% luck, but there it is.
> I see as much Propaganda in here as I do in any right-leaning forum/website.



Sadly 100,000 deaths means nobody gives a shit about this, they failed hard. Id jail them so people realise failure has consequences.


----------



## SpineyNorman (Jan 29, 2021)

Hyperdark said:


> Just because a country/government fucks up almost everything it touches is no reason to deny it's few successes, this one may just be 90% luck, but there it is.
> I see as much Propaganda in here as I do in any right-leaning forum/website.


If you love right wing forums so much why don't you go live there?


----------



## nagapie (Jan 29, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> That's not strictly true, what the UK did, together with most western countries including the US & EU block, was to vote to protect patents, had we voted against it, it would have made different to the outcome.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


So at the end of the day we made sure that the market is protected and then gave some charity to the developing nations, as long as they don't mind waiting and dying an extra 4 months while we vaccinate the west. Lots of moral issues here, don't see where we are absolved.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 29, 2021)

France
No lockdown yet.
No entry from outside the EU except in a major emergency
Entry from other EU country dependent on a negative PCR test (except for crfossborder workers)
both the above from Sunday morning
non food shopping centre ov er 20 000 square meters to be closed from Monday  (I saw some silly pictures of those the other days as it's the January sales at the moment)
more WFH to be facilitated
more control and enforcement of curfew rules


----------



## hash tag (Jan 30, 2021)

France! Who would have guessed this? " the chance of contracting Covid-19 from an infected person during sex is almost guaranteed. "








						Warehouse orgy with 100 men and women raided by police for breaking Covid rules
					

Police fined up to 100 people and arrested three as they broke up an orgy in Collegien, Paris, which was in breach of current rules to stop the spread of Covid-19




					www.mirror.co.uk


----------



## Superdupastupor (Jan 30, 2021)

Fucking awful in Portugal:

50% of all deaths in January 2021-

Strong connections with UK, Brasil, and S.Africa.

Gran,aunt and uncle -in-law +ve.  

7% of total the whole population have, have had, or had COVID.

Excess mortality creeping up too.


----------



## Badgers (Jan 31, 2021)

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...estors?amp#click=[URL]https://t.co/nG7MMzVbOq[/URL]


----------



## Mation (Jan 31, 2021)

Been looking at Google Maps' covid-19 overlay, which shows the average number of new cases per 100k people for the past 7 days in each area, depending on how far you zoom in or out.

Wtf is going on in Montenegro? It seems to be second in the world, with 74.4 and rising, behind Spain (77.1; wtf is going on in Spain).


The map also shows data for Africa, which most other outlets seem to completely ignore. Lots of zeros and <1s.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 31, 2021)

Badgers said:


> https://thehill.com/homenews/state-...estors?amp#click=[URL]https://t.co/nG7MMzVbOq[/URL]


The call for the protest spelt out:
"please do not wear MAGA/Trump attire"


----------



## Mation (Jan 31, 2021)

Mation said:


> Been looking at Google Maps' covid-19 overlay, which shows the average number of new cases per 100k people for the past 7 days in each area, depending on how far you zoom in or out.
> 
> Wtf is going on in Montenegro? It seems to be second in the world, with 74.4 and rising, behind Spain (77.1; wtf is going on in Spain).
> View attachment 252137
> ...


Oh. I didn't notice that some countries weren't showing. Portugal, for instance.


----------



## Boudicca (Jan 31, 2021)

I was just checking the worldwide vaccine stats and noticed the Seychelles are steamng ahead with nearly a third of the population having had their first vaccine.

They are also the first country to require a vaccine passport to enter the country:

*


			https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/covid-vaccine-travel-seychelles-is-open-to-vaccinated-visitors.html
		

*


----------



## Chairman Meow (Jan 31, 2021)

So we have haven't had a single case of community transmission in Western Australia since April. Until today! A security guard in a quarantine hotel tested positive, and it looks like he has caught the UK variant. So from 6pm tonight most of the state has gone into hard 5 day lockdown. We have to wear masks for the first time! The supermarkets and bottle shops this arvo were packed! Anyway, lets hope it works, I'm very happy to WFH for a bit but really hope we can get things under control quickly.

Much of Western Australia goes into five-day lockdown after hotel guard tests positive to UK Covid variant | Australia news | The Guardian


----------



## two sheds (Jan 31, 2021)

Chairman Meow said:


> So we have haven't had a single case of community transmission in Western Australia since April. Until today! A security guard in a quarantine hotel tested positive, and it looks like he has caught the UK variant. So from 6pm tonight most of the state has gone into hard 5 day lockdown. We have to wear masks for the first time! The supermarkets and bottle shops this arvo were packed! Anyway, lets hope it works, I'm very happy to WFH for a bit but really hope we can get things under control quickly.
> 
> Much of Western Australia goes into five-day lockdown after hotel guard tests positive to UK Covid variant | Australia news | The Guardian



Strong action, I'm surprised that the security guards aren't kept on site to prevent onward transmission though.


----------



## Chairman Meow (Jan 31, 2021)

Y


two sheds said:


> Strong action, I'm surprised that the security guards aren't kept on site to prevent onward transmission though.


Yes our state Premier, Mark McGowan went hard and fast from the start, shutting the state border very quickly, and going against that buffoon Scott Morrison. During the first lockdown they used Rottnest island just off the coast of Perth to quarantine people, but then they started using the city hotels, which is clearly a weak spot. Apparently the security guard was also an Uber driver, but luckily he hadn't been driving when he was infectious. Or so they claim, he did visit a few garages so I have my doubts. Anyway, they have published a list of everywhere he visited for the two days he was infectious and people are out testing in their droves. All we can do now is wait, and hope.


----------



## Cid (Jan 31, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Strong action, I'm surprised that the security guards aren't kept on site to prevent onward transmission though.



I mean security guards are people too... You could do short-term rotors I suppose.


----------



## two sheds (Jan 31, 2021)

Cid said:


> I mean security guards are people too... You could do short-term rotors I suppose.


Indeed - couple of weeks on site and test them before leaving, somewhat like oil rig workers? Would have to provide them with good quality accomodation. Having a taxi driver as security guard does seem a bit lax though.


----------



## Cloo (Jan 31, 2021)

Very interesting stats about school closures worldwide. The UK is actually one of the places where schools haven't been shut for so long, we're kind of in the mid range:





__





						UNESCO figures show two thirds of an academic year lost on average worldwide due to Covid-19 school closures
					






					en.unesco.org


----------



## teuchter (Jan 31, 2021)

Whoever came up with the colours for that map needs to be fired.


----------



## kabbes (Jan 31, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Whoever came up with the colours for that map needs to be fired.


It’s like the horseshoe theory as applied to school closures


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 31, 2021)

Chairman Meow said:


> Yes our state Premier, Mark McGowan went hard and fast from the start, shutting the state border very quickly, and going against that buffoon Scott Morrison. During the first lockdown they used Rottnest island just off the coast of Perth to quarantine people, but then they started using the city hotels, which is clearly a weak spot. Apparently the security guard was also an Uber driver, but luckily he hadn't been driving when he was infectious. Or so they claim, he did visit a few garages so I have my doubts. Anyway, they have published a list of everywhere he visited for the two days he was infectious and people are out testing in their droves. All we can do now is wait, and hope.



This is what happened in Brisbane first week of January. The quarantine hotel cleaner had been out and about in the community for 6 days before she was diagnosed . Hard lockdown for  5 days, 2 weeks of masks and then everything back to usual covid rules. And I don't actually think anyone else tested positive from that case!  It was the uk variant though, and led to an instant rule change re no retuning to Aus without a negative test ( keeping the usual 14 day quarantine as well) plus talk of moving quarantine hotels into empty mining camps out west. 









						Quarantine hotel worker tests positive for coronavirus in Brisbane
					

A cleaner at a quarantine hotel in Brisbane tests positive for coronavirus, sparking a health alert for three of the capital's southern suburbs, with the highly-infectious United Kingdom strain previously reported at the hotel.




					www.google.com
				




Meanwhile the government has said..











						PM’s chilling warning on COVID-19
					

The Prime Minister has issued a chilling warning that even with the COVID-19 vaccine there must be “no let up” in international border controls and quarantine over the coming year.




					www.news.com.au


----------



## Mation (Jan 31, 2021)

Cloo said:


> Very interesting stats about school closures worldwide. The UK is actually one of the places where schools haven't been shut for so long, we're kind of in the mid range:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Why does the mask pictured in that article look so grim?! 

(It won't let me take a link, so screenshot.)


----------



## miss direct (Jan 31, 2021)

That's what mine look like if I've had make up on.


----------



## Doctor Carrot (Jan 31, 2021)

Edit: Wrong Thread!


----------



## Mation (Jan 31, 2021)

miss direct said:


> That's what mine look like if I've had make up on.


Ah. I wear makeup about once a decade, so it didn't occur to me.

Doesn't it feel weird putting a mask on top of makeup? Weirder than putting a mask on at all, I mean


----------



## Sunray (Jan 31, 2021)

I want to go get quarantined in an empty mining camp in western Australia.  
I'm imagining seeing whales combined with the most deranged people on planet earth.

Its something to do.


----------



## miss direct (Feb 1, 2021)

Mation said:


> Ah. I wear makeup about once a decade, so it didn't occur to me.
> 
> Doesn't it feel weird putting a mask on top of makeup? Weirder than putting a mask on at all, I mean


No. I mean I've been wearing a mask regularly since last March. It's compulsory in Turkey as soon as you go outside so got used to it. I actually like to do a little eye make up when I'm wearing a mask for teaching.


----------



## Flavour (Feb 1, 2021)

Lockdown partially over in most of Italy from today. 15 out of 20 regions are in yellow zone, equivalent to Tier 1, where bars and restaurants and museums can open but only until 6pm - - like, you can go inside and sit down and stuff. Nationwide curfew at 10pm remains. Régions still in orange zone : Sicily, Umbria, Puglia, sardinia and South tyrol.

Spolier : this will last a week or two as cases will inevitably shoot up again, in our never ending lockdown merry go round.


----------



## Flavour (Feb 1, 2021)

I'm not that arsed about restaurants cos I don't have anyone to go with anyway but I will definitely be having a coffee and sitting down and drinking it inside with a croissant very soon.


----------



## keithy (Feb 1, 2021)

Africa has done amazingly, and I read that this was due to swift and effective action (Not ignorant stereotypes people trot out about population).

It's only recently that some countries in Africa have been more badly hit, so if we look at that in the context of the world at the moment that's a real achievement.

Not reported on in msm of course.



Mation said:


> The map also shows data for Africa, which most other outlets seem to completely ignore. Lots of zeros and <1s.
> View attachment 252138


----------



## teuchter (Feb 1, 2021)

keithy said:


> Africa has done amazingly, and I read that this was due to swift and effective action


Where have you read this?


----------



## keithy (Feb 1, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Where have you read this?



Dunno, have read a few articles since March 2020 and it stuckin my mind. Googling now backs up that response based on prior experience of pandemics (ie greater willingness to wear masks etc) had an impact. Similar to places with experience of sars performing better.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 1, 2021)

keithy said:


> Dunno, have read a few articles since March 2020 and it stuckin my mind. Googling now backs up that response based on prior experience of pandemics (ie greater willingness to wear masks etc) had an impact. Similar to places with experience of sars performing better.


Yes, it has been mentioned throughout but I've never actually seen anything that comes to a very clear conclusion.


----------



## keithy (Feb 1, 2021)

This covers a few points: "The UK Has Seen More Deaths From COVID-19 Than the Whole of Africa. Here Are 6 Reasons Why." The UK Has Seen More Deaths From COVID-19 Than the Whole of Africa. Here Are 6 Reasons Why.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 1, 2021)

keithy said:


> This covers a few points: "The UK Has Seen More Deaths From COVID-19 Than the Whole of Africa. Here Are 6 Reasons Why." The UK Has Seen More Deaths From COVID-19 Than the Whole of Africa. Here Are 6 Reasons Why.


Its no. 1 reason is the age of the population.


----------



## keithy (Feb 1, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Its no. 1 reason is the age of the population.



That's one of 6 reasons and doesn't detract from the ones about performance.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 1, 2021)

keithy said:


> That's one of 6 reasons and doesn't detract from the ones about performance.


It doesn't support what you said which was that Africa has done amazingly "due to swift and effective action".

It may be that many African countries did take swift and effective action, but as far as I can see, the significance of action taken relative to underlying conditions is very unclear. Loads of things are unclear about the differences between all countries.


----------



## keithy (Feb 1, 2021)

Swift and effective (and much more than we did):

Dr. Nkengasong, the director of the Africa CDC, told the BBC there was a “joint continental effort” to put in place early interventions. They focused on "scaling up testing and following up contact tracing, and very importantly masking.”

Some African countries like Rwanda cancelled international flights and many banned mass gatherings quickly. Without COVID-19 testing yet available on a mass scale, countries like Ethiopia checked 40 million people’s temperature by May and checked their travel histories, to better understand the level of potential coronavirus disease in the population and prevent it spreading.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 1, 2021)

keithy said:


> Swift and effective (and much more than we did):
> 
> Dr. Nkengasong, the director of the Africa CDC, told the BBC there was a “joint continental effort” to put in place early interventions. They focused on "scaling up testing and following up contact tracing, and very importantly masking.”
> 
> Some African countries like Rwanda cancelled international flights and many banned mass gatherings quickly. Without COVID-19 testing yet available on a mass scale, countries like Ethiopia checked 40 million people’s temperature by May and checked their travel histories, to better understand the level of potential coronavirus disease in the population and prevent it spreading.


Right, but all this has to be in context to mean much. Rwanda cancelled international flights but was that approach uniform across the continent and was it notably different to the approach taken in other regions of the world?


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Feb 1, 2021)

Flavour said:


> I'm not that arsed about restaurants cos I don't have anyone to go with anyway but I will definitely be having a coffee and sitting down and drinking it inside with a croissant very soon.


What happened with the "we're opening anyway" movement of restaurants over there?
Something similar has been organised to start today in France.


----------



## Chairman Meow (Feb 1, 2021)

Well it was day one of lockdown today in WA and we had zero new cases, but looks like yesterday’s positive security guard wandered around half of Perth, so we will see in the next few days. On the plus side my husband (who had to go to work) reckoned traffic was at least  50% down and he only saw two people all day not masked up. Considering today was our first day of mask wearing that’s pretty good going. Fingers crossed.


----------



## HAL9000 (Feb 1, 2021)

LA, one vaccine centre suffered delays due to.. 



> For nearly an hour Saturday, about 50 vaccination opponents and right-wing supporters of former President Donald Trump delayed COVID-19 vaccinations when they protested at the entrance to Dodger Stadium, the site of a mass vaccination campaign.







__





						NPR Cookie Consent and Choices
					





					www.npr.org


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 2, 2021)

Japan's new PM turning out to be a Theresa May, and is not handling the pandemic any better than the UK government:









						Suga Yoshihide is failing to connect with the Japanese people
					

Nowadays the job of prime minister is a poisoned chalice




					www.economist.com
				






" As cases spiked late last year, the government stuck by a campaign to promote domestic tourism, claiming that it had no impact on the virus’s spread. (Researchers at Kyoto University recently published a study showing otherwise.) Critics lambasted Mr Suga for attending a dinner with eight guests in a posh steakhouse just when the government was calling for citizens to avoid dining in big groups. After suspending the travel campaign, Mr Suga dithered over whether to declare a state of emergency, ultimately doing so in early January in piecemeal fashion, adding seven prefectures to the original list of four after regional leaders complained. Some 80% of Japanese believed the declaration came too late. "


----------



## Chairman Meow (Feb 3, 2021)

Day three of our five day lockdown in WA. Three days in a row with zero cases. This is the list of places the security guard visited, luckily he was using the SafeWA app, which enables you to scan a QR code to register your location. I've attached our daily update, and also a mask that people are wearing in the Northern Territories. This is also their tourism slogan.  If we get to Friday with no new cases lockdown will be lifted, so fingers crossed!

The Health Department contact tracing team has pulled together a list of potential exposure sites of where this positive case has been in recent days.
These locations currently include:
-Coles Maylands supermarket on 25 January from 8pm to 10pm
-KFC Maylands on 27 January from 6pm to midnight
-Mitsubishi Motors car dealership in Midland on 27 January from 7pm to close
-Spudshed, Coventry Village in Morley on 27 January from 8pm to midnight
-ECU Joondalup on 28 January from 11am to 2pm
-Consulate General of India on St Georges Terrace in Perth on 28 January from 12pm to 5pm
-Halal Grocery Store in Cloverdale on 28 January from 7pm to 9pm
-Venus Ladies and Gentleman Hair Design Maylands hairdressers on 29 January from 1pm to 3pm
-Perth Convention Centre on 29 January from 4pm to 6pm
-Nedlands Family Practice GP surgery on 29 January from 5pm to 6pm
-Chemist Warehouse North Perth Pharmacy on 29 January from 5.30pm to 7.30pm
-7-Eleven Ascot petrol station on 29 January from 8pm to 9pm
-Coles Maylands supermarket on 29 January from 8pm 9pm
-Puma Service Station in Burswood on 30 January from 11am to 12 midday.
-Coles Express/Shell Service Station in Cloverdale on 30 January from 12 midday to 3pm
-Pharmacy 777 at Maylands Park Shopping Centre 30 January from 2.30pm to 4pm.
People who have been to these venues on these dates and times must get tested.
In addition, people who live or work in the Falkirk Avenue, Maylands area including Coles, Liquorland and the Maylands shopping precinct should present for a test.
They must then go home and isolate until their negative test results are returned.
The investigation is on-going by our public health team, and it is likely more locations will be added following further discussions with the man.
Close contacts will be contacted by public health officials and asked to quarantine for 14 days.
More information on testing clinics will be available on our website – the WA Health and WA Gov websites.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Feb 3, 2021)

What are the NT like


----------



## teuchter (Feb 3, 2021)

Chairman Meow said:


> This is also their tourism slogan.



No it's not.


----------



## Chairman Meow (Feb 3, 2021)

teuchter said:


> No it's not.



Isnt it?Did they change it? I know a lot of people up there, the CU in the NT gear is pretty popular.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 3, 2021)

Chairman Meow said:


> Isnt it?Did they change it? I know a lot of people up there, the CU in the NT gear is pretty popular.


It's just a joke thing. It's not anything official, obviously.


----------



## Chairman Meow (Feb 3, 2021)

Fair enough. My colleagues in Darwin love it though.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 3, 2021)

Chairman Meow said:


> Fair enough. My colleagues in Darwin love it though.


I wonder if anyone's told them it's not real.


----------



## Sunray (Feb 3, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> Japan's new PM turning out to be a Theresa May, and is not handling the pandemic any better than the UK government:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



What is it with leading politicians making stuff up in regards to a pandemic?


----------



## sideboob (Feb 3, 2021)

hash tag said:


> France! Who would have guessed this? " the chance of contracting Covid-19 from an infected person during sex is almost guaranteed. "
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I didn`t know orgies were still a thing, I feel as though I`ve missed out.  How many people constitutes an orgy?.   Must add "visit France" to my bucket list now.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 3, 2021)

hash tag said:


> France! Who would have guessed this? " the chance of contracting Covid-19 from an infected person during sex is almost guaranteed. "
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I like this line -

"The event was in breach of the curfew, and there were also problems with masks and social distancing," said an investigating source.

No shit, Sherlock.


----------



## killer b (Feb 3, 2021)

sideboob said:


> I didn`t know orgies were still a thing, I feel as though I`ve missed out.  How many people constitutes an orgy?.   Must add "visit France" to my bucket list now.


I assumed any more than two, but I checked and apparently an orgy starts at five. Every day's a schoolday.


----------



## sideboob (Feb 3, 2021)

Sunray said:


> What is it with leading politicians making stuff up in regards to a pandemic?


Coming from someone in Japan, but not big town, I can tell you that the gov`t is doing fuck all.  Tokyo, Osaka and other big cities are requesting people to shorten business hours and what not.  The bars and sex industry are business as usual in most places, and this is where the majority of clusters are occuring.   The only thing saving the country, or slowing the spread of the plague is common sense among the citizens.    Unfortunately the gov`t is handing out money left and right, which everyone is happy to take, not realizing that it`s them, and future generations that are going to be responsible for paying it back, through taxes and inflation.  Sorry for the rant, long day.


----------



## hash tag (Feb 3, 2021)

sideboob you say you didn't know orgies were still a thing...I didn't know much about Geisha and "mens" nights out at "pop concerts" by very young innocent girls until a short while back, but thats another thread for another place.


----------



## Supine (Feb 3, 2021)

Vaccine supply volumes for the covax vaccine  



			https://www.gavi.org/sites/default/files/covid/covax/COVAX-Interim-Distribution-Forecast.pdf


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Feb 3, 2021)

killer b said:


> I assumed any more than two, but I checked and apparently an orgy starts at five. Every day's a schoolday.


up to 4 it's just swinging


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 3, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> up to 4 it's just swinging



Surely it goes - threesome, foursome, or[gy]some?


----------



## 2hats (Feb 3, 2021)

Dutch rolling out a COVID-19 breath testing programme which uses an electronic nose - the SpiroNose - that provides a result within a couple of minutes. High reliability for negative results claimed, with positives being confirmed with a subsequent PCR test.








						Dutch to roll out rapid breath tests for COVID-19
					

The Netherlands is to introduce rapid COVID-19 breath tests to sites across the country to speed up the testing process and make it less intrusive.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Feb 4, 2021)

2hats said:


> Dutch rolling out a COVID-19 breath testing programme which uses an electronic nose - the SpiroNose - that provides a result within a couple of minutes. High reliability for negative results claimed, with positives being confirmed with a subsequent PCR test.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


is this in any way related to the Covid sniffer dogs?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 4, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> is this in any way related to the Covid sniffer dogs?



Finland started using dogs back in September, but not sure the dog studies are related to the machines mentioned. 









						COVID-19: Scientists have trained sniffer dogs to detect coronavirus with 94% accuracy
					

The dogs are conditioned to pick up the "corona odour" that comes from cells in infected people.




					news.sky.com


----------



## Espresso (Feb 4, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> is this in any way related to the Covid sniffer dogs?


Yup, in that they will be to detect what the dog can. 

That sort of "smell-o-meter" technology has been around for a while. In the trade they are called Electronic Noses, so the idea is that they detect the presence and amount of whatever volatile compounds you're looking for. They are used in all sorts of different industries.


----------



## kabbes (Feb 4, 2021)

Espresso said:


> Yup, in that they will be to detect what the dog can.
> 
> That sort of "smell-o-meter" technology has been around for a while. In the trade they are called Electronic Noses, so the idea is that they detect the presence and amount of whatever volatile compounds you're looking for. They are used in all sorts of different industries.


They’re still light years behind what a dog can do, though


----------



## ice-is-forming (Feb 5, 2021)

Chairman Meow said:


> Fair enough. My colleagues in Darwin love it though.



My team leader was wearing one at a Teams meeting with our colleagues in Darwin yesterday  I guess you had to be there... we're in Qld and we get on well with the Darwin mob. We've muddled through the last year together.

And our Head office is in Melbourne & our managers and other colleagues are in WA. So it's been interesting watching how everyone has reacted to  lockdowns. We haven't had any where I live, although we were impacted by the recent one in Brisbane. Just the general semi panic it induced, it was in the new year and school holidays so heaps of people had been there recently, or were still there.  They gave everyone about 12 hours notice to  be locked down. Subsequently a lot of visitors in Brisbane dashed home, and a lot of  Brisbanites ran south to the Gold coast or north to the sunny coast for a long  weekend. With quite a few driving that couple of extra hours and making it to my town.

I feel so removed from what's happening in Europe though, and completely ill-equiped  to interact with people there/ here/u75 about it.

Yes I've been impacted, at the start before anyone knew what was going to happen there was that high level of personal anxiety ( in part because I have a son on immunosuppressants) and the whole panic buy experience. I have family here who had employment uncertainty etc. I'm an essential worker, I have friends who haven't seen their family both in Aus and internationally because of travel restrictions.  My family in London were shielding/working etc and had covid over Xmas, including my immortal 93 yr old dad.
But that's about it other than the worldwide vicarious trauma.

So yeah, I'm witnessing it from afar really, and feeling sad and angry for everyone .

I hope you get your hard lockdown lifted this evening Chairman Meow  I think perhaps people in Europe imagine a vastly different Urban  Aus to the reality. But the pavements and shops and transport get just as rammed in Perth and Brisbane as they do in London or Manchester. So how we keep getting away with these quarantine hotels in city centres i don't know, gotta be the outdoor living and sunshine ...

Actually you know what the biggest impact on me atm has been.. pandemic migration from other states. Many of the houses where I live, which has a cheap property market, are owned as investment homes by people in the southern states. Now with pandemic migration a lot of them are moving into them, or as demand grows for houses here and prices rise they're selling them. So there  is an unprecedented lack of rentals and now a small tent city happening. I rent so that's stressing me the most ( that &  the immunocompromised son continuing to compete at a state level in his chosen sport.. which is full on hot and sweaty contact). I don't have enough $ for a deposit to buy. Too much of a misspent youth, so that's a bit scary and uncertain. I have a lease until Nov,  but my landlords a retirement age  wanker who does live in melbourne so    I've been planning a plan b & c. Maybe get a something or other to live in and put it on son 1s land, or move further up the coast away from it all...but i suppose that then makes me a covid migrant too..





__





						Housing in regional Queensland scarce due to interstate migration, remote work and returning Aussies - ABC News
					






					amp.abc.net.au


----------



## Chairman Meow (Feb 5, 2021)

So we got our fifth doughnut (zero case) day in a row, so tonight we come out of lockdown! We have to wear masks and have a few more restrictions for another week in the Perth metro area, but we expect to go back as we were if we are all clear for another week, as regional Perth will do straight away. So fingers crossed for all that, but looks like we did it!


----------



## Chairman Meow (Feb 5, 2021)

Ice-is-forming, I'm in WA, but our other offices are Darwin and Cairns, so we've all been pretty unaffected, apart from no interstate travel. Our friends in Vic have had it pretty tough, although absolutely nothing like as bad as the UK. I do feel guilty sometimes, especially when I see friends and family struggling so much. My mum keeps asking me what fun stuff I am getting up to, she says he is bored out of her mind as she has barely left the house in a year. I have no idea how they are coping at all!. As for personal consequences, I do wonder when I will see my folks again. Its worse for my husband, his little brother was diagnosed with MND last January, so we are worried we might not see him again, which is pretty rough.

 As for house prices, we struck lucky there. We finally bought a house at the end of Jan last year, after renting all our lives. So it was reassuring to be settled in when Covid hit, although a bit scary financially!  As Perth houses prices have apparently gone up by quite a bit this year and the rental market is a nightmare now, it was good timing! Lots of our friends have taken advantage of the housing stimulus packages to build too, the government will give out $55k to them, which isn't bad! Could you do that? My friends didnt have any money!  I'm glad I don't have to go through the stress of a build, though worth it in the end! Good luck with getting sorted though, it can be stressy renting I know (I did it for long enough!)


----------



## ice-is-forming (Feb 5, 2021)

I really need to start adulting and go and see my bank manager :/


----------



## Badgers (Feb 6, 2021)

Interesting read this









						When will life return to normal? In 7 years at today's vaccine rates
					






					financialpost.com
				




The Bloomberg  Vaccine Tracker:









						More Than 10.2 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker
					

Bloomberg counted up the shots administered in 184 countries and 59 U.S. states and territories




					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 6, 2021)

I don't see any kind of clear definition of normality on that Bloomberg article 

So I'll leave that (crucial) question hanging in the air for now .....

But my gut reaction, and I did read the piece, is to think that you'd have to be the most ultra-pessimistic person in the world to think that it's going to take seven years before we can live similarly-i*sh* to how things were in 2019?


----------



## StoneRoad (Feb 6, 2021)

It's not April the oneth, is it ?

I really can't believe this report ...
Coronavirus in Tanzania: The country that's rejecting the vaccine - BBC News 

a smoothie vs vaccination ????  - that's wooer than normal woo

Definitely not going there !


----------



## Pickman's model (Feb 7, 2021)

New research suggests a link between climate change and the virus Climate change may have driven the emergence of SARS-CoV-2


----------



## elbows (Feb 8, 2021)

Cats & dogs testing & quarantine in South Korea, but only if they are symptomatic.



> South Korea's capital has said it will give pet dogs and cats free coronavirus tests if they come into contact with infected humans and show symptoms.
> 
> Pets found infected with the virus must be quarantined at their homes or a city-run facility for 14 days, said Seoul official Park Yoo-mi.
> 
> ...











						Seoul to give free Covid-19 tests to pets
					

South Korea's capital has said it will give pet dogs and cats free coronavirus tests if they come into contact with infected humans and show symptoms.




					www.irishnews.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 8, 2021)




----------



## weltweit (Feb 8, 2021)

Rather a lot of Oxford/Astra Zeneca vaccines on hold in South Africa due to partial and inconclusive test results against the SA variant.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 9, 2021)

WHO are holding a conference in Wuhan at the moment with results of investigation into origins of covid-19.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 9, 2021)




----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 9, 2021)

Daszak - " IMPORTANT: The joint team concluded that direct or indirect spillover, cold chain food pathways are potentially important. Lab incident is "Extremely unlikely to explain introduction of SARS-CoV-2 & further work on this is not necessary for further research from this study"

Surprised they're giving credit to the frozen food hypothesis, I thought most had ruled that out as Chinese trying to move possibility of origins to another country.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 9, 2021)

Daszak - KEY COMMENT: Recommendations include sampling potential intermediate hosts & bats both inside & outside China. Possible role of cold chain - incl. "Frozen wild animal that could have been infected by [progenitor] of SARS-CoV-2"

This virus may have emerged through "convoluted pathways that may have taken a long time and moved it across borders"


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 9, 2021)

IMPORTANT Q: 
@WSJ
 Exactly what animals found at Huanan mrkt?? "Testing showed no positives, but some animals that are known to be susceptible to CoVs like ferret badger" "some of trace-back in farms or regions where bats harbor related CoVs". This, to me, is a CRITICAL finding!! 

There was also mention of rabbits and bamboo rats being susceptible.


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 9, 2021)

So nothing to do with their coronavirus lab in Wuhan and we should look at frozen food imported from outside China, and also pet cats. Righty ho.


----------



## elbows (Feb 9, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> So nothing to do with their coronavirus lab in Wuhan and we should look at frozen food imported from outside China, and also pet cats. Righty ho.



Yeah. I can completely understand the point of not initially dismissing the theory out of hand, since there are examples of such things in history and simply trying to dismiss it as a conspiracy theory is just not good enough. But then if you are going down that route, I'm not convinced that you can then to dismiss it at the very next opportunity without meaningful detail. On what basis? I'm not looking forward to eventually reading their justification for that, and I continue to have low expectations of learning more of substance about the origins.

At the end of the day one of the main weaknesses of the WHO at every stage is that it is inevitably tainted by all the factors and pressures that come with 'international diplomacy'. I'll never forget their Feb 2020 China team study, where they came out with absolute shit about the number of asymptomatic infections in China.


----------



## IC3D (Feb 9, 2021)

That's a doctor Nope then


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 9, 2021)

I understand they spoke to some scientists from the lab who assured them that the sequence of this particular virus wasn't a match for one they had been working with. 

The top theory espoused by the team was that the virus came to humans from bats via an intermediary host. As all the live animals they tested were negative, suspicion naturally fell on imported frozen meat as the intermediary. Also, since infections have now been observed in cats and mink around the world, but not in pangolins or any other seafood market creatures, pet cats should be investigated.


----------



## IC3D (Feb 9, 2021)

'Even before his death, Dr. Li had become a hero to many Chinese after word of his treatment at the hands of the authorities emerged. In early January, he was called in by both medical officials and the police, and forced to sign a statement denouncing his warning as an unfounded and illegal rumor.'








						Chinese Doctor, Silenced After Warning of Outbreak, Dies From Coronavirus (Published 2020)
					

Dr. Li Wenliang issued a warning about a strange new virus. Then the authorities summoned him for questioning.




					www.nytimes.com
				




This kind of thing might influence WHO interviews.

ETA for an RIP 1 year ago. This guy broke the story to protect his colleagues while the Chinese state tried to silence him.


----------



## elbows (Feb 9, 2021)

One of the things that does my head in about trying to explore the lab angles is how little awareness or mainstream discussion there is about the 1977 influenza that caused a pandemic (in the young, so not a famously deadly pandemic) and was likely caused by a lab accident. 

Its a story that has received some sporadic attention over the years, eg Did leak from a laboratory cause swine flu pandemic?

But for some strange reason the press didnt exactly rush to write a load of articles about the history of lab releases when that possible angle with this pandemic emerged. 

Dont get me wrong, I'm not wedded to any particular origin story for SARS-CoV-2. I just refuse to rule things out prematurely. And we'll be lucky if any of the gaps get filled in. Probably the most I hope to understand is more about the timing and spread in the period before the disease was noticed.


----------



## elbows (Feb 9, 2021)

BBC 'analysis', lol.



> It was unlikely that the expert group, in its politically-charged mission, would be able to pinpoint the source of the pandemic in China a year after it began. But, after visiting the Wuhan Institute of Virology, they have closed the lid on a controversial theory that coronavirus came from a lab leak or was made by scientists.











						Covid: WHO says 'extremely unlikely' virus leaked from lab in China
					

A team of international and Chinese experts say more work is needed to find the source of the virus.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## IC3D (Feb 9, 2021)

They really found shit all other than reassurances lol 

On a previous visit to the lab in relation to safety in 2018 however, weaknesses involved " According to Dr Lentzos, these include: "Who has access to the lab, the training and refresher-training of scientists and technicians, procedures for record-keeping, signage, inventory lists of pathogens, accident notification practices, emergency procedures." I guess things improved.









						Coronavirus: Is there any evidence for lab release theory?
					

BBC News examines allegations that the coronavirus was accidentally released from a lab.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Feb 9, 2021)

The 2010 Haiti cholera outbreak is an example of authorities including the WHO trying for some time to avoid difficult questions and answers about the source of a disease outbreak. In that case the nature of the disease and the fact it wasnt new to humanity meant that it was possible to track down the source, and authorities gave up attempts to obfuscate at some point, once confronted by compelling evidence.









						2010s Haiti cholera outbreak - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org
				






> For three months, UN officials, the CDC, and others argued against investigating the source of the outbreak. Gregory Hartl, a spokesman for the World Health Organization (WHO), said finding the cause of the outbreak was "not important". Hartl said, "Right now, there is no active investigation. I cannot say one way or another [if there will be]. It is not something we are thinking about at the moment. What we are thinking about is the public health response in Haiti."[27] Jordan Tappero, the lead epidemiologist at the CDC, said the main task was to control the outbreak, not to look for the source of the bacteria and that "we may never know the actual origin of this cholera strain."[28] A CDC spokesperson, Kathryn Harben, added that "at some point in the future, when many different analyses of the strain are complete, it may be possible to identify the origin of the strain causing the outbreak in Haiti.





> Under intense pressure, the UN relented, and said it would appoint a panel to investigate the source of the cholera strain.[32] That panel's report, issued in May 2011, confirmed substantial evidence that the Nepalese troops had brought the disease to Haiti. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) utilized DNA fingerprinting to tests various samples of cholera from Haitian patients to pinpoint the specific strand of cholera found in Haiti. During an epidemiological outbreak investigation, DNA fingerprinting of bacteria can be extremely helpful in identifying the source of an outbreak. The results of the CDC tests showed that the specific strain of cholera found in samples taken from Haitian patients was _Vibrio cholerae_ serogroup O1, serotype Ogawa, a strain found in South Asia.[33] This specific strain of cholera is endemic in Nepal, therefore supporting the Haitian suspicion that Nepalese peacekeepers were the source of the outbreak. However, in the report's concluding remarks, the authors hedged to say that a "confluence of circumstances" was to blame.


----------



## elbows (Feb 9, 2021)

From the BBC live updates page at 14:29: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-55992464

If one thing keeps me vaguely sane about this angle, its that the press have taken a more interesting and skeptical tone about the investigations of the lab angle, and I noticed recently that they werent just trying to dismiss it as a conspiracy theory, in contrast to their initial instincts when the possibility first arose.



> People in China were able to watch livestreams of the World Health Organization press conference, and indeed, more than 1.5 million did via the official Xinhua news agency.
> 
> This showed that China was confident nothing was going to come out of this WHO’s press conference that it didn’t expect or want people to hear.
> 
> But China’s media have long stressed that there wasn’t going to be a “gotcha” moment out of the delegation’s visit. Papers have repeatedly said that China has long been cooperating with the WHO, that the visit is a scientific and not a political one, and that the team will need to investigate the virus’ origins in multiple countries.





> It certainly came as no surprise to Chinese audiences that the WHO all but dismissed suggestions Covid-19 may have originated in a Wuhan laboratory.
> 
> China has repeatedly refuted suggestions, calling them nothing but a “massive smear campaign led by some US politicians”. In particular, they criticised the US government under former president, Donald Trump, for suggesting such.
> 
> On Friday, Chinese outlets were already highly publicising video footage of Peter Daszak from the delegation saying that the team had found “no evidence at all” to suggest the virus might have originated there, and that what he saw was “an incredibly well-built, well-designed, well-managed lab”.


----------



## elbows (Feb 9, 2021)

I was impressed by the lab, the chairs were very comfortable and nobody was juggling with open specimen jars during our visit. The depth of their records was also impressive, no employee of that lab has even sneezed since July 3rd, 2016.


----------



## IC3D (Feb 9, 2021)

Author Dr Lentzos of the damning 2018 visit to Wuhan lab expressing views now 



Threads worth a look


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 9, 2021)

China fact-checked this early last year, so I don't know why they bothered going over old ground:


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 9, 2021)

Aside from a possible lab leak, another possibility investigated by the team was direct transmission from bats to humans. This was discounted because bats and humans don't come into contact much. Except of course for the coronavirus researchers in Wuhan who have been visiting caves collecting bats and bat shit for years (e.g. Google Translate).


----------



## IC3D (Feb 9, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> China fact-checked this early last year, so I don't know why they bothered going over old ground:



They are taking the piss .. 'World leading scientists' they must of had Boris on Zoom for that one


----------



## 2hats (Feb 9, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> Aside from a possible lab leak, another possibility investigated by the team was direct transmission from bats to humans. This was discounted because bats and humans don't come into contact much. Except of course for the coronavirus researchers in Wuhan who have been visiting caves collecting bats and bat shit for years (e.g. Google Translate).


Or the collection and use of bat guano as a fertiliser (in numerous communities throughout SE Asia and elsewhere).


----------



## IC3D (Feb 9, 2021)

Definitely not them then. Frozen food. Forrin frozen food.

" The WIV's second bat breeding-related patent describes the methods used. Referencing their bat cage patent, it describes how wild insectivorous bats captured from mountain caves are kept in the cages and fed a diet of insects. It covers the preparation of their feed, domestication of wild bats, overwintering, artificial reproduction, weaning of the young and raising them in six steps. The breeding method includes staff being in daily proximity to bats during feeding time and feeding young bats by hand. It mentions the risk of cross-species transmission of SARS coronaviruses in bats, a topic researched by Shi Zhengli at the WIV. "

The Wuhan Institute of Virology's Bat Breeding Program
Can't really vouch for this though. But a patent for breeding bats from WIV


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 9, 2021)

The Wuhan Institute of Virology  was also the least likely of the two Wuhan coronavirus labs to be involved. There was another lab only 280 meters away from the seafood market, first raised as a possible source by two Chinese researchers in February last year: https://img-prod.tgcom24.mediaset.i...0192-5eb8307f-017c-4075-a697-348628da0204.pdf

".....Within ~280 meters  from  the  market,  there  was  the  Wuhan  Center  for  Disease Control  &  Prevention (WHCDC) (Figure 1, from Baidu and Google maps). WHCDC hosted animals in laboratories for research purpose, one of which was specialized in pathogens collection and identification. In one of their studies, 155 bats including Rhinolophus  affiniswere captured in Hubei province, and other 450 bats were captured in Zhejiang province4. The expert in collection was noted in the Author Contributions (JHT). Moreover, he was broadcasted for collecting viruses on nation-wide newspapers and websites in 2017 and 20197,8. He described that he was once by attacked by bats and the blood of a bat shot on his skin. He knew the extreme danger of the infection so he quarantined himself for 14 days. In another accident, he quarantined himself again because bats peed on him. He was once thrilled for capturing a bat carrying a live tick 8.   Surgery was performed on the caged animals and the tissue samples were collected for DNA and RNA extraction and sequencing. The tissue samples and contaminated trashes were source of pathogens. They were only ~280 meters from the seafood market. The WHCDC was also adjacent to the Union Hospital (Figure 1, bottom) where the first group of doctors were infected during this epidemic. It is plausible that the virus leaked around and some of them contaminated the initial patients in this epidemic, though solid proofs are needed in future study. The second laboratory was ~12 kilometers from the seafood market and belonged to Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.....  "

I don't think the WHO investigation team mentioned it.


----------



## Combustible (Feb 9, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> The top theory espoused by the team was that the virus came to humans from bats via an intermediary host. As all the live animals they tested were negative, suspicion naturally fell on imported frozen meat as the intermediary. Also, since infections have now been observed in cats and mink around the world, but not in pangolins or any other seafood market creatures, pet cats should be investigated.



That's not really an accurate characterization at all of what they said. It still sounds like the most likely thing they think is that it was transmitted to humans via live animals which had been transported to markets in Wuhan. And frozen wild animal meat wouldn't necessarily need to be imported.


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 9, 2021)

I think it’s a fair reading. The idea that some animals susceptible to coronaviruses came from regions where there were bats is just a bit of an add-on to account for the fact that haven’t found anything. And the frozen imports coming from overseas was clearly where Laing Wannian was leading them, why else would he mention that it could have travelled long distances on frozen food if his only evidence was his research showing that the virus can survive at low temperatures. That simple fact isn’t enough to start pushing it as a theory in these circumstances.


----------



## Combustible (Feb 9, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> I think it’s a fair reading. The idea that some animals susceptible to coronaviruses came from regions where there were bats is just a bit of an add-on to account for the fact that haven’t found anything.



But why would they add that on if as you say the aim was to say it didn't come from live animals, but from imported frozen meat. In fact they clearly are not saying the fact that they haven't found anything in live animal tests points to it being carried by frozen meat, because it coming from live animals still seems to be the leading theory. 

Live animals could also be imported as well given the amount of live animal smuggling. It's not really any more or less damning whether it came from live animals/frozen meat,  in the end it would still be down to there being a massive unregulated wild animal trade.


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 9, 2021)

Combustible said:


> But why would they add that on if as you say the aim was to say it didn't come from live animals, but from imported frozen meat. In fact they clearly are not saying the fact that they haven't found anything in live animal tests points to it being carried by frozen meat, because it coming from live animals still seems to be the leading theory.
> 
> Live animals could also be imported as well given the amount of live animal smuggling. It's not really any more or less damning whether it came from live animals/frozen meat,  in the end it would still be down to there being a massive unregulated wild animal trade.



The aim was to be clear that it didn’t come from a lab. So what are they left with while ensuring they don’t mention any actual evidence of anything: casting the net out of Wuhan, whether to bats in some other place or, if they can manage it, to other countries by implication.


----------



## elbows (Feb 9, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> Aside from a possible lab leak, another possibility investigated by the team was direct transmission from bats to humans. This was discounted because bats and humans don't come into contact much. Except of course for the coronavirus researchers in Wuhan who have been visiting caves collecting bats and bat shit for years (e.g. Google Translate).



The bat was just resting in my account.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 9, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> I think it’s a fair reading. The idea that some animals susceptible to coronaviruses came from regions where there were bats is just a bit of an add-on to account for the fact that haven’t found anything. And the frozen imports coming from overseas was clearly where Laing Wannian was leading them, why else would he mention that it could have travelled long distances on frozen food if his only evidence was his research showing that the virus can survive at low temperatures. That simple fact isn’t enough to start pushing it as a theory in these circumstances.



Some of the research that the Chinese are basing these claims on can be found on this lengthy paper from Oct 2020








						Can the coronavirus disease be transmitted from food? A review of evidence, risks, policies and knowledge gaps - Environmental Chemistry Letters
					

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has brought speculations on possible transmission routes of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causal agent of the pandemic. Air pollution has been linked to increased risks of COVID-19 infection and mortality rates in...




					link.springer.com
				





> Although *no direct link has been established between COVID-19 infection and foodborne transmission*, a series of recent incidents highlighted frozen foods as carriers for the *long-range transport* of SARS-CoV-2 during the current pandemic. The earliest incident occurred on 12 *June 2020* in the Xinfadi agricultural produce wholesale market in Beijing, where SARS-CoV-2 was detected on a cutting board used for processing *imported salmon* (Global Times 2020a). Although later investigations did not find conclusive evidence on its origin, this particular incident raised awareness by authorities and consumers on frozen foods as possible SARS-CoV-2 carriers. Since the beginning of July 2020, at least *nine incidents of food contamination* have been reported across the country, where SARS-CoV-2 was detected on* imported foods,* mostly on their *packaging materials *(Fig. 2). Most of those incidents traced to *frozen shrimps* imported from *Ecuador*, where novel coronavirus was found on their packaging materials, and in one particular case, SARS-CoV-2 was also detected on the *interior of a shipping container.* Notably, in the latest incident in Shenzhen, Guangdong province on *August 12, 2020*, local authorities found SARS-CoV-2 on the surface of a *frozen chicken wing* sample originated from *Brazil*, which became the *first known case where the novel coronavirus was detected on actual food samples *(SMHC 2020).
> The frequent detection of SARS-CoV-2 in frozen foods suggest that these are not random, isolated incidents but rather alerting signs that viral contamination and foodborne transmission may present a systematic risk in the ongoing pandemic. This is plausible given that food contamination may occur via respiratory droplets, contact or other route, during the farming, processing, storage, transport, and retailing process where foods may contact with different workers and ambient environments in the “farm-to-table” lifecycle. It is particularly noteworthy that prior to the re-emergence of the first COVID-19 case on* June 11, 2020*, there had been *no local transmission reported for 56 consecutive days in Beijing *(China Daily 2020a). A total of *256 cases were confirmed over the next two weeks, *with 98.8% of those* linked to the Xinfadi market *where a *salmon cutting board* was tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (Xinhua News 2020). *Genome sequencing *of the SARS-CoV-2 virus sampled from the Xinfadi market identified a *European coronavirus strain*, providing *strong evidence that the re-emergent COVID-19 cases in Beijing may be caused imported sources* rather than continued transmission of the local coronavirus strain (CCDC 2020).



This was referenced in this paper from Jan 2021 which was co-authored by Shi Zhengli of the WIV




__





						SARS-CoV-2 spillover events | Science
					





					science.sciencemag.org
				





> In addition to animal-to-human transmission in farms, cold food supplier chains are raising substantial concern. In various cities in China, *several small-scale COVID-19 outbreaks caused by virus-contaminated uncooked seafood or pork* from *overseas countries* have been documented. It was found that viral genome signatures in these outbreaks were different from the viral strains present in China (_7_, _8_). There is evidence that SARS-CoV-2 can survive up to 3 weeks in meat and on the surface of cold food packages without losing infectivity (_7_, _8_). Thus, meat from SARS-CoV-2–infected animals or food packaging contaminated by SARS-CoV-2 could be a source of human infection.
> ----
> Another *debate concerns the source of SARS-CoV-2 that caused the COVID-19 outbreak at the end of 2019.* The current data question the animal origin of SARS-CoV-2 in the seafood market where the early cases were identified in Wuhan, China. Given the* finding of SARS-CoV-2 on the surface of imported food packages*, contact with contaminated uncooked food could be an important source of SARS-CoV-2 transmission (_8_). Recently, *SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were found in human serum samples taken outside of China before the COVID-19 outbreak was detected* (_14_, _15_), which *suggests that SARS-CoV-2 existed for some time before the first cases were described in Wuhan.*


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 9, 2021)

Indeliblelink said:


> Some of the research that the Chinese are basing these claims on can be found on this lengthy paper from Oct 2020
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yes this is all obvious stuff, we know clusters of infections have happened in low temperature food processing environments. It’s really no surprise that the virus turned up in frozen food. It’s no basis for claiming frozen food is a likely route by which the virus arrived in Wuhan though.


----------



## Shellee (Feb 9, 2021)

We’ve only gone and brewed up our own variant nearby in Bristol. Named E484K, looks like EEK !









						COVID-19: Scientists label mutation found in Bristol as 'variant of concern'
					

There have been 14 cases of the variant in Bristol, four in Manchester, and three other scattered cases.




					www.google.co.uk


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 9, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> It’s no basis for claiming frozen food is a likely route by which the virus arrived in Wuhan though.


I agree, just trying to find where they are getting this theory from or how they are propagating it. Although saying that, I think there is the possibility it came into Wuhan via fresh/frozen food or livestock from an area of China with a large bat population or over the border in a neighbouring country.


----------



## The39thStep (Feb 9, 2021)

Promising signs in Portugal. The State of Emergency is reviewed next Thursday/ Friday (its done on a fortnightly basis) it's almost certain to be expected. The good news is that it has, at the moment in any case made an impact. There was a brief mention in one paper that the schools closing  was a possible large contributor .


----------



## Cloo (Feb 9, 2021)

Interesting article about India: 

No one really knows why cases seem to have fallen in India without them having done anything a great deal different to anyone else - milder variant? lots of viruses about that have made people less vulnerble to COVID? warmth and humidity? No one can be sure.

It mentions that they seem to have found that only a minority (c10%) of carriers seem to be resposible for most of the spreading, and I'd heard similar figures quoted from research from other countries. The interesting thing that throws up, as mentioned by this article, is that perhaps you can avoid unnecessary tracing by just testing the family of someone positive - as if they don't have it, it's probable the infected family member hasn't given it to anyone else either.

Which brings me to something else - I'm pretty sure early on the feeling seemed to be it was almost inevitable that if one family member caught it, everyone would, then I more recently saw that quote as about 17%, though checking again I see CDC reckons about 36% rate of infection in the household if symptomatic, 18% if asymptomatic. Transmission of SARS-COV-2 Infections in Households ....

Still altogether much less inevitable than I thought!


----------



## 2hats (Feb 9, 2021)

Shellee said:


> We’ve only gone and brewed up our own variant nearby in Bristol. Named E484K, looks like EEK !
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Incorrect. The "Bristol" variant is the "Kent" variant (B.1.1.7) sporting the E484K mutation (aka VOC-202102/02). Bristol isn't unique - there are several 'homegrown' E484K varieties around the country, for example an older (B.1.177) flavoured one in the East Midlands, along with the "Liverpool" (A.23.1) Variant Under Investigation (VUI-202102/01).

Very approximate distribution of E484K mutations, both homegrown and imports as of a few days ago:





(Note: purely an indication of distribution at the county level and still a very small fraction of overall cases).


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 10, 2021)

A good summary of evidence for the lab origin theory:









						Did the Covid-19 virus really escape from a Wuhan lab?
					

The covid-19 pandemic has killed two million people and counting. It has created medical, social, psychological, and economic misery on a scale unprecedented in peacetime. So tracking down the origins of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes covid-19 is vital to prevent a recurrence. Begin with a...




					www.rationaloptimist.com


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 10, 2021)

Viscount Ridley though


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 10, 2021)

.


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 10, 2021)

Indeliblelink said:


> Viscount Ridley though



Sure, but I’m guessing it was mostly written by his co-author, a molecular biologist, and it’s fully referenced with inline citations and open to refutation should anyone disagree with any of it.

Would be nice if other figures in the scientific media felt able to pursue this without being accused of agreeing with Trump.


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 10, 2021)

Worth reading the Wiki entry on 'Viscount' Ridley though 

I'd principally thought of him as your man at Northern Rock in 2008 .....

Also, I'd believed (wrongly?  ) that he was a climate change denialist, but there's not much about that in the above Wiki entry.

Plenty about his raving Toryism and outrageous aristocracy though


----------



## not-bono-ever (Feb 10, 2021)

weltweit said:


> New China virus: Cases triple as infection spreads to Beijing and Shanghai
> 
> 
> This comes as China confirms that a new strain of coronavirus can pass from person to person.
> ...



hmmm...you might be onto something there


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 11, 2021)

Another good article on the farcical WHO investigation:









						The WHO's Covid shame
					

Their investigation into the pandemic was little more than an appeasement of Beijing




					unherd.com
				




This one was blocked by Facebook as a conspiracy theory


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 11, 2021)

> There is also no doubt that Donald Trump’s botched intervention injected this important debate with lethal toxicity. Yet the US government in a sober statement from the State Department claimed it has “reason to believe” WIV researchers fell sick with Covid-like symptoms in autumn 2019 “before the first identified case of the outbreak”.


This was put up in the last days of the Trump administration and was removed as soon as Biden came in. I note for the article they've had to resort to linking to the US Embassy in Georgia to find a copy of it. 

Although it looks like Biden is not totally following the WHO narrative.








						US will not accept WHO findings out of Wuhan without verifying
					

The United States will not accept World Health Organization findings out of its coronavirus investigation in Wuhan without independently verifying the findings, said a US State Department spokesman.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## Indeliblelink (Feb 11, 2021)

From 9th Feb - evidence of SARSCoV-2 related coronaviruses in horseshoe bats in Thailand. Not as closely related as RaTG13 and with no ACE2 binding or furin cleavage site. SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies were also detected in bats of the same colony and in a pangolin at a wildlife checkpoint in Southern Thailand.








						Evidence for SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses circulating in bats and pangolins in Southeast Asia - Nature Communications
					

A bat origin for SARS-CoV-2 has been proposed. Here, by sampling wild Rhinolophus acuminatus bats from Thailand, the authors identified a SARS-CoV-2-related coronavirus (SC2r-CoV), designated as RacCS203, with 91.5% genome similarity to SARS-CoV-2, and show that sera obtained from bats and...




					www.nature.com
				





> Among the many questions unanswered for the COVID-19 pandemic are the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential role of intermediate animal host(s) in the early animal-to-human transmission. The discovery of RaTG13 bat coronavirus in China suggested a high probability of a bat origin. *Here we report molecular and serological evidence of SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses (SC2r-CoVs) actively circulating in bats in Southeast Asia*. Whole genome sequences were obtained from five independent bats (_Rhinolophus acuminatus_) in a *Thai cave* yielding a single isolate (named *RacCS203*) which is *most related to the RmYN02 isolate* found in _Rhinolophus malayanus_ in *Yunnan*, China. *SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies were also detected in bats of the same colony and in a pangolin* at a wildlife checkpoint in *Southern Thailand*. Antisera raised against the receptor binding domain (RBD) of RmYN02 was able to cross-neutralize SARS-CoV-2 despite the fact that the RBD of RacCS203 or RmYN02 failed to bind ACE2. Although the origin of the virus remains unresolved, *our study extended the geographic distribution of genetically diverse SC2r-CoVs from Japan and China to Thailand over a 4800-km range*. Cross-border surveillance is urgently needed to find the immediate progenitor virus of SARS-CoV-2.













						Coronavirus: Bat scientists find new evidence
					

Experts say coronaviruses related to Sars-CoV-2 may be found in bats across many parts of Asia.



					www.bbc.com
				





> The researchers said sampling was limited, but they were confident that coronaviruses "with a high degree of genetic relatedness to Sars-CoV-2 are widely present in bats across many nations and regions in Asia".
> The area includes Japan, China and Thailand, the researchers said in a report published in Nature Communications.


----------



## Hyperdark (Feb 11, 2021)

Slight thread drift but Interesting


----------



## bimble (Feb 11, 2021)

Some great data in here, on the global vaccination stats to date.








						Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations
					

Our vaccination dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. Income groups are based on the World Bank classification. A full list of our...




					ourworldindata.org
				



When you look at % of population who have received at least 1 jab the uk is very high up in the rankings but here’s the ‘percentage fully vaccinated’ list of countries.


----------



## Hyperdark (Feb 11, 2021)

Study lending some further weight to the link between Vit D and reduced rates of Covid19


----------



## 2hats (Feb 12, 2021)

High resolution imagery of SARS-CoV-2 virions derived from electron cryotomography.
  
More, including a 3D model, here:




__





						Visualization of cryo-electron tomography scan of a real SARS-CoV-2 virion
					






					nanographics.at


----------



## Mation (Feb 12, 2021)

2hats said:


> High resolution imagery of SARS-CoV-2 virions derived from electron cryotomography.
> View attachment 253936 View attachment 253937 View attachment 253938
> More, including a 3D model, here:
> 
> ...


They're quite keen to explain that these are real images, aren't they


----------



## Hyperdark (Feb 12, 2021)

caught the end of a piece on the telly yesterday where some bloke reckoned all the virions of SARS-CoV-2 in existence would fit in a pint glass, no idea if its true but if it is thats just mind boggling...so much death in a pint glass!!!!!


----------



## Supine (Feb 12, 2021)

Hyperdark said:


> caught the end of a piece on the telly yesterday where some bloke reckoned all the virions of SARS-CoV-2 in existence would fit in a pint glass, no idea if its true but if it is thats just mind boggling...so much death in a pint glass!!!!!


----------



## Mation (Feb 12, 2021)

Then why don't they just put it all into one can and shoot the can off into space


----------



## Hyperdark (Feb 12, 2021)

“There will be a massive debate about whether we should allow a big wave of infection once we’ve vaccinated all the over 50s,” 

Truth of the matter is there will be a big wave before the over 50s are all vaccinated, they will open up *before* that.  Dripford is already making noises and said a while back that one of the first things he will open up is Gyms...FFS

(Apologies I know this should be in the UK discussion but Im banned from that thread as some self absorbed fucking snowflake cried to mommy)


----------



## Orang Utan (Feb 12, 2021)

Who was that Welsh fash who got banned?


----------



## Hyperdark (Feb 13, 2021)

Orang Utan said:


> Who was that Welsh fash who got banned?



Nationalist streak?


----------



## bimble (Feb 13, 2021)

I’ve heard from 2 people now in different bits of India both saying there’s no or almost no more infections, life’s back to normal.
looks like it’s pretty much true, too.








						Dramatic drop in Covid cases gives India hope of return to normal life
					

Swimming pools, cinemas and theatres to be allowed to operate at full capacity from 1 February




					www.theguardian.com
				








__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com
				






UK has more new cases than India this week, whilst being locked down and relatively minuscule.
So how come? 
There’s been very little lockdown there for a long while now, vaccines are rolling out well but it can’t be the effect of that yet. Very strange. Good but strange.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 13, 2021)

bimble said:


> UK has more new cases than India this week, whilst being locked down and relatively minuscule.
> So how come?
> There’s been very little lockdown there for a long while now, vaccines are rolling out well but it can’t be the effect of that yet. Very strange. Good but strange.



Probably a lack of testing explains a lot, they've only carried out 147,502 per million population, compared to the UK at 1,1895,955. A lack of proper registering of covid deaths is also likely to play into things, I remember reading an article that in some part of India deaths don't even get recorded.


----------



## bimble (Feb 13, 2021)

Dont think that’s it, their numbers were massive and then dropped very sharply and have stayed down.


----------



## nagapie (Feb 13, 2021)

bimble said:


> Dont think that’s it, their numbers were massive and then dropped very sharply and have stayed down.


South Africa also doing better despite the South African variant and no vaccines. Older population here?


----------



## bimble (Feb 13, 2021)

Older population would explain deaths but not cases?

The suggested explanation is that in densely populated areas they have reached some sort of herd immunity, via half the people having had the virus.


----------



## nagapie (Feb 13, 2021)

bimble said:


> Older population would explain deaths but not cases?


Probably something in testing. But also maybe not inflicted with the new more transmissible strains.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 13, 2021)

bimble said:


> Dont think that’s it, their numbers were massive and then dropped very sharply and have stayed down.


Their numbers were never massive, at least not in terms of recorded deaths.


----------



## bimble (Feb 13, 2021)

Recorded (medically stamped as covid related) deaths are a really bad metric, in India, I think. The thing I’m surprised by is the sharp decline in infections, with no lockdown to account for it. The most likely explanation does seem to be a sort of herd immunity like that man in the article says.


----------



## The39thStep (Feb 13, 2021)

R number in Portugal is now .7 .  Cases and admissions clearly continuing downward . Vaccination has been slow and hampered by low rates of delivery, both the Left Bloc and Communist party have called for Portugal to go outside the EU procurement strategy. Government intends to vaccinate 1.4 million by The Uk variant makes up 43% of all cases. 3 cases on Brazilian variant identified. Government State of emergency extended for a further fortnight.


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 13, 2021)

bimble said:


> Recorded (medically stamped as covid related) deaths are a really bad metric, in India, I think. The thing I’m surprised by is the sharp decline in infections, with no lockdown to account for it. The most likely explanation does seem to be a sort of herd immunity like that man in the article says.



I know that "I can't believe ... " isn't science (  ), but with India, isn't it at least a _bit_ hard to believe that hot weather lacks any relevance? 

I have no real answer to this btw, just wondering!


----------



## IC3D (Feb 13, 2021)

Adequate Vitamin D, Low BMI, less medicated, less sedentary and vulnerable elderly not clustered into care homes springs to mind. Just thoughts look how hard UK/US got hit compared to India there a some striking pointers.


----------



## LDC (Feb 13, 2021)

IC3D said:


> Adequate Vitamin D, Low BMI, less medicated, less sedentary and vulnerable elderly not clustered into care homes springs to mind. Just thoughts look how hard UK/US got hit compared to India there a some striking pointers.



Explain how less medicated (and what you mean by that) might have to do with anything?


----------



## IC3D (Feb 13, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Explain how less medicated (and what you mean by that) might have to do with anything?


Less people with comorbidities being sustained on medication.
Also Id suggest far greater immune response due to greater exposure to viruses


----------



## bimble (Feb 13, 2021)

IC3D said:


> Adequate Vitamin D, Low BMI, less medicated, less sedentary and vulnerable elderly not clustered into care homes springs to mind. Just thoughts look how hard UK/US got hit compared to India there a some striking pointers.


None of that has anything to do with infection rates, really. Maybe death rates. Elderly people living in busy & often crowded extended households not obviously advantageous either.


----------



## IC3D (Feb 13, 2021)

bimble said:


> None of that has anything to do with infection rates, really. Maybe death rates. Elderly people living in busy & often crowded extended households not obviously advantageous either.


Are infection rates recorded with any accuracy there? I suspect they pass fairly unrecognized and present as mild disease


----------



## bimble (Feb 13, 2021)

That’s the thing, infection rates & hospitalisation rates very low now, in most of India. I don’t think you can account for the drop in infections by saying they must be just testing fewer and fewer people every week since the summer.


----------



## IC3D (Feb 13, 2021)

Milder disease. Herd immunity.


----------



## LDC (Feb 13, 2021)

IC3D said:


> Less people with comorbidities being sustained on medication.
> Also Id suggest far greater immune response due to greater exposure to viruses



Don't get what you're getting at. Is it the comorbidities, or the 'sustained on medication' (not sure what you mean by that either) for them, that's the problem?


----------



## bimble (Feb 13, 2021)

My correspondent in a small town in Rajasthan just explained that the reason India’s doing well is that the government is so great. 

Does seem more likely that it’s herd immunity. So the opposite of lockdown. Which is interesting but you’d need the real covid-related death figures to know more.








						Coronavirus: Has India achieved herd immunity? – DW – 02/09/2021
					

New COVID cases and deaths have fallen sharply in India in the past few weeks, which has led some officials to suggest that the country has achieved herd immunity. But how credible are these claims?




					www.dw.com


----------



## Badgers (Feb 14, 2021)

Patient reinfected with South African COVID variant in serious condition
					

In late January, an Israeli who was infected with the novel coronavirus in August was found to be reinfected with the South African variant.




					m.jpost.com
				






> In late January, an Israeli who was infected with the novel coronavirus in August was found to be reinfected with the South African variant.


----------



## Petcha (Feb 15, 2021)

So New Zealand has 3 new cases and shuts down their biggest city with roadblocks and huge fines.









						New Zealand's Auckland Covid outbreak is UK variant, says Ardern
					

Some 1.6 million Kiwis face bans on non-essential movement until Wednesday under strict new lockdown as Australia suspends travel bubble




					www.theguardian.com
				




Overreaction?


----------



## elbows (Feb 15, 2021)

Petcha said:


> Overreaction?



Their approach absolutely requires this level of reaction. I wouldnt change a thing about their approach until vaccination changes the game.


----------



## Petcha (Feb 15, 2021)

elbows said:


> Their approach absolutely requires this level of reaction. I wouldnt change a thing about their approach until vaccination changes the game.



Their population must be a whole lot more compliant and docile than ours. The moaning here about restrictions is absurd. But hey, it seems to be working. I believe they have relative normality there, if you exclude the fact nobody can actually enter the place!

edit, maybe it's actually because they trust their leadership, unlike here


----------



## LDC (Feb 15, 2021)

Petcha said:


> Their population must be a whole lot more compliant and docile than ours. The moaning here about restrictions is absurd. But hey, it seems to be working. I believe they have relative normality there, if you exclude the fact nobody can actually enter the place!
> 
> edit, maybe it's actually because they trust their leadership, unlike here



I don't think calling them 'docile' in this context is a useful or accurate term though.


----------



## Petcha (Feb 15, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I don't think caliing them 'docile' in this context is a useful or accurate term though.



No, you're right. Obedient maybe.


----------



## 2hats (Feb 15, 2021)

Situationally aware?


----------



## elbows (Feb 15, 2021)

I cant make claims about how people in the UK would have responded to such an approach because we were never given the option.


----------



## Petcha (Feb 15, 2021)

They have a calm, reassuring leader fully explaining why she's doing this. We have Boris. I have leader envy.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 15, 2021)

Petcha said:


> So New Zealand has 3 new cases and shuts down their biggest city with roadblocks and huge fines.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Nope, a predictable reaction of a country that has managed to keep infections to a level where track and trace can function, and where wider spread can be minimised. 

If only the UK was still at such low levels, or if UK could hold the lockdown until we reach such levels. Sadly I think the pressures on Gov are to open up way before we reach manageable levels like this.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Feb 15, 2021)

Petcha said:


> No, you're right. Obedient maybe.


We've been obedient. Both main lockdowns have been observed pretty well here, probably just as well as in New Zealand. But they did their first lockdown at a time when they could effectively squash the initial outbreak. They controlled the border. They've seen results. 25 dead, I think it is so far. Multiply by 12 to give an equivalent to the UK and you have 300. 300 dead compared to 120,000 dead. NZ has done 400 times better than Britain so far, and has spent most of the last year in near- or complete normality.


----------



## Petcha (Feb 15, 2021)

littlebabyjesus said:


> We've been obedient. Both main lockdowns have been observed pretty well here, probably just as well as in New Zealand. But they did their first lockdown at a time when they could effectively squash the initial outbreak. They controlled the border. They've seen results. 25 dead, I think it is so far. Multiply by 12 to give an equivalent to the UK and you have 300. 300 dead compared to 120,000 dead. NZ has done 400 times better than Britain so far, and has spent most of the last year in near- or complete normality.



I'm looking out my window here in east london and I can assure you lockdown is not being adhered to. It looks like daily life. I assume lockdown in NZ means lockdown.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Feb 15, 2021)

Petcha said:


> I'm looking out my window here in east london and I can assure you lockdown is not being adhered to. It looks like daily life. I assume lockdown in NZ means lockdown.


I think it's a mistake to think that NZ's success has been down to a difference between the populations wrt responding to lockdown orders. 

The difference is found in the timing, order and nature of the actions undertaken. Here in the UK, it has been the Morecombe and Wise approach. 
_Taking all the right measures, not necessarily in the right order. _


----------



## Chairman Meow (Feb 15, 2021)

Day 16 of zero local transmission in WA. On Sunday we ended our transitional week after our five day lockdown. Which means we don’t need to wear masks any mor which most people are happy about. We only had to wear them for two weeks, and everyone did, even in the car if you were sharing.l Like NZ we are more compliant, or docile if you wish, for couple of reasons. Firstly, we aren’t fatigued with it all, wearing a mask for a few weeks is no biggie compared to what is going on in most of the rest of the world. Also, like NZ we have strong clear leadership. Mark Macgowan our state Premier has incredibly high approval ratings and is affectionately known as the State Daddy as the main consensus is that he has stood up to the Federal Government to keep the WA border closed, and keep WA safe. Anyway, here are some of his fb valentine memes.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 15, 2021)

Presumably the people of NZ watch the news and can see very well what's happened in countries which were slow with their lockdowns. I would imagine that would have a strong influence on how willing they are to comply with one just now. The UK population were in a different situation this time last year: the example of what could happen was not there. And the UK population are in a different situation as far as the current lockdown is concerned too: it's a lockdown aimed at reducing the spread rather than one aimed at stopping any spread whatsoever. So it all seems a bit meaningless to compare UK and NZ reactions to lockdown.


----------



## elbows (Feb 15, 2021)

Petcha said:


> I'm looking out my window here in east london and I can assure you lockdown is not being adhered to. It looks like daily life. I assume lockdown in NZ means lockdown.



The failure to adhere to rules is often visible, but is still only a fraction of the picture. Adherence overall has been high, what you are seeing is only a fraction of normal daily life. And when I say high, I do not mean anything close to 100%. Which is also what authorities expect, and indeed the combination of measures involved take this into account, if they actually expected 100% compliance then they could have made the rules slightly weaker since they wouldnt need to compensate for non-compliance.


----------



## Flavour (Feb 16, 2021)

Scientists on the advisory board for Italian government are pushing for another strict lockdown.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Feb 16, 2021)

Looks like we're on course to dip below Spain in terms of deaths:


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 16, 2021)

My immediate reaction just now, when I saw the above graph, was just sheer _relief_ that the death-rate is coming down so significantly in *Spain and the UK*


----------



## Mation (Feb 16, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> My immediate reaction just now, when I saw the above graph, was just sheer _relief_ that the death-rate is coming down so significantly in *Spain and the UK*


Aye. Let's hope the downward trend continues for all of us x


----------



## 2hats (Feb 17, 2021)

World's first SARS-CoV-2 human challenge trials, to better understand minimally infective viral loads, shedding and transmission.








						Call for volunteers for world’s first coronavirus human challenge study | Imperial News | Imperial College London
					

The UK will be the first country to run a Covid-19 human challenge study, following a favourable opinion from the UK’s clinical trials ethics body.




					www.imperial.ac.uk


----------



## weltweit (Feb 17, 2021)

2hats said:


> World's first SARS-CoV-2 human challenge trials, to better understand minimally infective viral loads, shedding and transmission.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks for the link 2hats but there is no way I am volunteering


----------



## SpineyNorman (Feb 17, 2021)

weltweit said:


> Thanks for the link 2hats but there is no way I am volunteering


They don't want old cunts like us anyway


----------



## Mation (Feb 17, 2021)

2hats said:


> World's first SARS-CoV-2 human challenge trials, to better understand minimally infective viral loads, shedding and transmission.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Can't help feeling that this will be the cause of much regret, even if it ultimately provides useful information.


----------



## ska invita (Feb 18, 2021)

excess deaths - Russia a disaster


----------



## two sheds (Feb 18, 2021)

From reddit, and confirmation: 









						France rewards hundreds of frontline immigrant workers with citizenship
					

"They have proved their commitment to the nation. It is now up to the Republic to take a step toward them."




					www.cbsnews.com
				




Why can't our government act like human fucking beings sometimes the cunts


----------



## teuchter (Feb 18, 2021)

More detail on that excess deaths stuff here









						GitHub - dkobak/excess-mortality: Excess mortality during COVID-19 pandemic
					

Excess mortality during COVID-19 pandemic. Contribute to dkobak/excess-mortality development by creating an account on GitHub.




					github.com
				









The suggestion seems to be that the UK is not really under-counting its Covid deaths but some other countries are, including Italy, Portugal, Spain, Poland and quite a few Eastern European countries.

So for example if you look at UK vs Spain somewhere like here then UK appears to be worse, at 180 vs 140 deaths per 100,000, but according to the numbers above Spain might actually be about the same.


----------



## elbows (Feb 18, 2021)

teuchter said:


> The suggestion seems to be that the UK is not really under-counting its Covid deaths but some other countries are, including Italy, Portugal, Spain, Poland and quite a few Eastern European countries.
> 
> So for example if you look at UK vs Spain somewhere like here then UK appears to be worse, at 180 vs 140 deaths per 100,000, but according to the numbers above Spain might actually be about the same.



There was UK underreporting in the first wave, which is somewhat visible when comparing death certificate Covid-19 deaths to deaths from all causes. There is less underreporting in the second wave, in great part due to much higher amounts of testing, but it is also less easy to establish the extent of any underreporting due to less deaths than normal from other causes such as influenza. 

I would say that yes, it is quite likely that there are plenty of countries with more significant undercounting at the moment than the UK.


----------



## platinumsage (Feb 18, 2021)

A thread of EU vaccine refusers following ill-advised pronouncements by politicians:


----------



## elbows (Feb 19, 2021)

edit - moved vaccine stuff to a more appropriate thread that has popped up.


----------



## Sunray (Feb 19, 2021)

LOL 

Although the US appears to be having nearly the same reduction in cases as we are, yet they are heavy on the anti-mask die at work or on the streets kinda society.
I've not seen a solid explanation for this even by respected people


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Feb 19, 2021)

Sunray said:


> View attachment 255131
> 
> LOL
> 
> ...



correlation  _could_ point to causation


----------



## kabbes (Feb 20, 2021)

I love the way many Americans feel compelled to add their qualification at the end of their name.  I have authority!


----------



## editor (Feb 20, 2021)

Sunray said:


> View attachment 255131
> 
> LOL
> 
> ...



And:



😂


----------



## MrSki (Feb 20, 2021)

Not seen this confirmed but could be very bad news.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 20, 2021)

MrSki said:


> Not seen this confirmed but could be very bad news.




Seems to be reported by a few outlets, so far no transmission between people, and only mild cases. 


> Russia said it found the world’s first cases of H5N8 avian influenza in humans though the virus isn’t yet spreading between people.
> 
> Authorities have sent information on the seven cases detected in workers at a poultry farm in southern Russia to the World Health Organization, Anna Popova, the country’s public-health chief, said in televised comments on Saturday.
> 
> ...











						Uber Loses U.K. Ruling on Drivers in Blow to Gig Economy
					

Uber Technologies Inc. lost a U.K. Supreme Court ruling over the rights of its drivers, in a landmark decision that strikes a blow against the gig economy.




					www.bloomberg.com
				




And, this strain has already been found in poultry, in the UK.









						Warning issued after outbreak of bird flu in Redcar which affects Hartlepool, Seaton Carew and other areas
					

POULTRY keepers in Hartlepool are being warned that highly pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N8 (bird flu) has been confirmed in the region.




					www.thenorthernecho.co.uk


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Feb 20, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Seems to be reported by a few outlets, so far no transmission between people, and only mild cases.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Also:
swans in China, Czech and Austria
crows in India
pheasants in Finland and Anglesey
cranes in Italy
Sout Korea, Algeria, Northern Ireland, Japan...


----------



## teuchter (Feb 20, 2021)

MrSki said:


> Not seen this confirmed but could be very bad news.



Looks like the kind of Twitter account you can definitely trust for reliable science reporting.


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2021)

The extent of any human to human transmission is certainly key. When I was learning about pandemics earlier this century, I saw someone who should have known better get it all wrong, jump the gun and declare that a H5N1 bird flu pandemic had begun. In great part because they misread some possible sign of very limited human to human transmission as being the sort of strong human to human transmission that has real and imminent pandemic potential. And its certainly not that hard to make a mistake in that area given that phases where authorities make statements about 'limited human to human transmission' in order to buy thsemselves a little time in terms of where they think things are going compared to what signals they want to send the public.

So I dont pay much attention to various strains of bird flu in terms of expecting imminent pandemic doom, unless I see clues that there is community spread. Even limited human to human transmission in very close settings, eg between family members of someone who worked with poultry, is not enough. Well, its enough for me to poke around looking for signs that the situation is worse than authorities are admitting. But it doesnt sound like the H5N8 in Russia story is enough to trigger my interest at this point.


----------



## MrSki (Feb 20, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Looks like the kind of Twitter account you can definitely trust for reliable science reporting.


Everything I have seen from that account has been reliable. There is an article about MI6rogue from the New Statesman here.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 20, 2021)

It should be reassuring that Russia hasn't found human to human transmission with H5N8, and I hope they are right.

OTOH, China said the same about SARS-CoV2, and look at the mess the world is in now.


----------



## Supine (Feb 20, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Looks like the kind of Twitter account you can definitely trust for reliable science reporting.



They publish some proper leaks. Including that gov pandemic response excercise from a few years ago. The one that showed the gov had completed none of the recommendations.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 20, 2021)

Supine said:


> They publish some proper leaks. Including that gov pandemic response excercise from a few years ago. The one that showed the gov had completed none of the recommendations.


Publishing leaks is a different skill from assessing the epidemiological implications of a newly reported bird flu strain, I'd say.


----------



## Supine (Feb 20, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Publishing leaks is a different skill from assessing the epidemiological implications of a newly reported bird flu strain, I'd say.



No shit Sherlock. Just suggesting it's not an account to dismiss out of hand.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 20, 2021)

MrSki said:


> Everything I have seen from that account has been reliable.https://www.newstatesman.com/politi...mystery-source-leaking-documents-about-brexit


Bad luck that this one happened to be their first ever unreliable bit of information then.


----------



## MrSki (Feb 20, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Bad luck that this one happened to be their first ever unreliable bit of information then.


Well that is still to be determined whether the seven people all caught it from livestock or whether any of them caught it off each other. It happened in December & only broke today so we shall see.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 20, 2021)

MrSki said:


> Well that is still to be determined whether the seven people all caught it from livestock or whether any of them caught it off each other. It happened in December & only broke today so we shall see.


The tweet stated 


> this is the first cases of human transition in history & has the potential to begin a new pandemic!


which appears to be nonsense.


----------



## MrSki (Feb 20, 2021)

teuchter said:


> The tweet stated
> 
> which appears to be nonsense.


What is the source for the story? As said above the Covid-19 was not said to have H to H transmission by China but look what happened there.

Time will tell but you trying to take the piss out of my post because of the name of the tweeter has been shown not to be bollocks & you are now trying to cover your arse by arguing the toss. 



teuchter said:


> Looks like the kind of Twitter account you can definitely trust for reliable science reporting.


Maybe you were not being sarcastic?


----------



## teuchter (Feb 20, 2021)

Even if the Twitter account turned out to be totally reliable my initial post still stands, in full.
Also, I bet whoever writes it owns some camo gear.


----------



## elbows (Feb 20, 2021)

teuchter said:


> The tweet stated
> 
> which appears to be nonsense.



Which bit is nonsense?

There are a bunch of bird inflenzas that are considered to have pandemic potential. Its just there is another step or two that needs to be demonstrated before the chances that that potential is actually being unlocked are considered high.

But the theoretical potential is there so they want to ensure there is surveillance of situations where outbreaks are detected in birds, or where there is bird->human transmission. That is why international health regulations require countries to report a bunch of flu strains if they detect them. Which Russia has done.

So I wouldnt say the tweet is utter nonsense, but I could accuse it of using strong and sloppy language that may mislead people as to the pandemic potential. If I had written the tweet I would not have used the word transition, and I would have explained pandemic potential more thoroughly. I think I'm actually in need of a term for the in-between stage, because authorities probably only go on about pandemic potential when they suspect limited human->human transmission has probably occurred. Even at that stage a pandemic is not inevitable, but its fairer to start talking more freely about the potential then. So what would we call a virus thats still missing a bit of the capabilities required to spread effectively between humans, but can infect humans on a more limited basis? They are all viruses of concern in my book, its more a question of finding the right language to describe better the level of concern.

Previously the WHO had not updated their public assessment of H5N8 for a little over 4 years. Here is the November 2016 version if anyone is interested. Since Russia has reported the outbreak to them, they will likely issue some updated bulletin at some point.





__





						Assessment of risk associated with influenza A(H5N8) virus
					






					www.who.int
				




The broader subject is covered by the WHO here, although if you look at their December 2020 bulletin I dont think you'll find a mention of H5N8 because there were no recent cases to report on at the time, other bird flu's were capturing more of their attention.









						Avian and other zoonotic influenza
					

Avian and other zoonotic influenza




					www.who.int
				




Human-animal interface is quite the jargon.


----------



## StoneRoad (Feb 21, 2021)

StoneRoad said:


> It's not April the oneth, is it ?
> 
> I really can't believe this report ...
> Coronavirus in Tanzania: The country that's rejecting the vaccine - BBC News
> ...



WHO attempting to persuade Tanzania that Covid is real and that they need to do something (like vaccinate)

Covid: WHO pleads with Tanzania to start reporting cases - BBC News 

some of the detail in that is as alarming as the "smoothie" story I linked to above ...


----------



## The39thStep (Feb 22, 2021)

Portugal - No road map here in Portugal . Press conference today :



> Asked about the possible beginning of a process of deflation and if it will start before March, the Minister of Health underlined that it is necessary to do " a very cautious, prudent and thoughtful assessment ”and“ we cannot intend to move from one extreme to the other in a time that is not compatible with what is the control of this pandemic ”.
> 
> "This is the time to focus on containing the transmission of the disease, improving the response in areas other than Covid, betting on the speed of the vaccination process and on the protection of the most fragile and vulnerable", defended Marta Temido.
> 
> ...



Lowest case and death figures for some time but as this data collected from Sunday we can take that with a pinch of salt to be honest . However the trend is healthy if uneven with Lisbon and the North still responsible for the majority of cases and deaths. 





> We are, on the 20th, with an incidence of 322 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants" , affirmed Peralta Santos, from the General Directorate of Health. "And also with a weekly variation of very sharp decrease" .
> 
> Although the cumulative incidence at 14 days per 100 thousand inhabitants has decreased, "there are areas of the territory with relatively high incidence", mainly in the region of Lisbon and Vale do Tejo, in the Center and Alentejo.
> 
> "There are already only a few municipalities with an incidence greater than 960" , confirmed the specialist, adding that "there are already vast areas of the territory with an incidence of less than 240 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants".



The vaccine rollout is very slow compared to the UK  , its confinment that is forcing the levels down but  the DGS say that there  ' the downward trend of all age groups" remains, with the population aged 80 and over being still "the group with the highest incidence at the moment", despite being " lower and with levels of incidence at the level of November ". 

Analyzing the epidemiological situation in Portugal, compared to other European countries, Baltazar Nunes stated that the country currently has the lowest R value in Europe.


*The impact of the British variant:*



> João Paulo Gomes, specialist at the Ricardo Jorge Institute, updated the status of the genetic variants of the coronavirus in Portugal, at the Infarmed meeting.
> 
> The specialist started by addressing the British variant, since it is the one that has had "much greater expression in our country".
> *
> ...


----------



## Hyperdark (Feb 24, 2021)

EU Countries zig-zag from making threats over reduced supply of Astra Zeneca vaccine to spreading disinformation about it's efficacy and now having to make statements to its populations that it really is worth having.



https://pharmaphorum.com/news/az-covid-jab-efficacy-debate-is-hindering-eus-vaccine-drive/


----------



## The39thStep (Feb 26, 2021)

From RTP ( Portugal News)




> Researchers from the Ricardo Jorge Institute concluded that the United Kingdom and Italy were the countries that had the most weight in the transmission of the virus in Portugal. The study shows that by March 2020, at least 277 infected people from 36 countries entered the country.


----------



## Sunray (Feb 26, 2021)

I think the UK should just donate is the supply of J&J vaccines to a country like the Czech Republic who were desperate for vaccines, only 5.5 million could do them all.



The39thStep said:


> From RTP ( Portugal News)



This just lends credence to the lockdown quickly and hard.  The benefits are both economic and in lives saved.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 26, 2021)

Sunray said:


> I think the UK should just donate is the supply of J&J vaccines to a country like the Czech Republic who were desperate for vaccines, only 5.5 million could do them all.



I can see a case for releasing it, but why donate it? They can pay for it, no reason for UK taxpayers to foot the bill for vaccines in other European countries.
.
Besides, I doubt the EU would allow that, they would want to share it amongst member states.

And, if we could release supplies to a single EU state, surely we should start with Ireland, in view of the common travel area arrangements.


----------



## Sunray (Feb 26, 2021)

It can be amazing what you get back when a gift of life is given. The EU doesn't have that level of control. Just need to get the import approval from the Czechs.  

I don't see the point of sharing them out in dribs and drabs, vaccines work best when everyone gets one, they only have 5.5 million people, badly affected.  We've ordered 17 million doses.  Its a single dose.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Feb 26, 2021)

Sunray said:


> I don't see the point of sharing them out in dribs and drabs, vaccines work best when everyone gets one, they only have 5.5 million people, badly affected.  We've ordered 17 million doses.  Its a single dose.



The Republic of Ireland has a similiar population, a land border with the UK, and part of a common travel area with the UK, IoM & Channel Islands.

The Czech Republic has borders with a lot more countries and are part of a far greater common travel area.

As you say, vaccines work best when everyone gets one, far better for the UK to start with Ireland, if that's an option.


----------



## Supine (Feb 26, 2021)

Start with Ireland, Falklands, Barbados, Tristan Da Cunha, Ascension, Pitcairn, Gibraltar, South Georgia, Turks & Caicos, Jersey, Gurnsey, Isle Of Man, Montserrat, British Virgin Islands.


----------



## StoneRoad (Feb 26, 2021)

I of Man is already supplied with vaccine and the rollout is underway.

Covid: New Isle of Man vaccination hub to allow smooth roll-out - BBC News


----------



## elbows (Feb 26, 2021)

Its been quite a while since I last posted this Covid-19 hospital patients graph.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Feb 27, 2021)

Grafton Street, Dublin Today


----------



## ska invita (Feb 27, 2021)

Saul Goodman said:


> Grafton Street, Dublin Today



what are they protesting?


----------



## Saul Goodman (Feb 27, 2021)

ska invita said:


> what are they protesting?


Lockdown.


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 27, 2021)

Saul Goodman said:


> Lockdown.



That wasn't mentioned as a protest factor in that RTE footage (?), horrendous though it looked.

Any *more* (than one word!?  )information on the anti-lockdown protest?

I'm ever-suspicious of conspiracists, but I have zero idea whether any of that bollix was involved in those protests.

Not that anything 'justifies' police violence anyway


----------



## Aladdin (Feb 27, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> That wasn't mentioned as a protest factor in that RTE footage (?), horrendous though it looked.
> 
> Any *more* (than one word!?  )information on the anti-lockdown protest?
> 
> ...




 
Some of the anti lockdown protestors today...clearly home schooling is not working for them










						Garda taken to hospital as 23 held after demonstrations
					

A garda has been taken to hospital after being injured during disturbances in Dublin city centre as protesters demonstrated against Covid-19 restrictions.




					www.rte.ie


----------



## Orang Utan (Feb 27, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> That wasn't mentioned as a protest factor in that RTE footage (?), horrendous though it looked.
> 
> Any *more* (than one word!?  )information on the anti-lockdown protest?
> 
> ...


it's all over the news and social media


----------



## Saul Goodman (Feb 27, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> That wasn't mentioned as a protest factor in that RTE footage (?), horrendous though it looked.
> 
> Any *more* (than one word!?  )information on the anti-lockdown protest?
> 
> ...


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 27, 2021)

Orang Utan said:


> it's all over the news and social media




I'm drunk, lazy, and more inclined to trust the (very likely)! more interesting thoughts -- and links -- of an Irish or any poster on here anyway.

So shove your dull and boring rebukes


----------



## Orang Utan (Feb 27, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> I'm drunk, lazy, and more inclined to trust the most likely more interesting thoughts of an Irish or any poster on here anyway.
> 
> So shove your dull and boring rebukes


eh? no rebuke, it's just been on the news so if you're interested you could go have a look.


----------



## Aladdin (Feb 27, 2021)

Saul Goodman said:


>





Ffs.

Pathetic innit.


----------



## rekil (Feb 27, 2021)

Saul's vid is a 10+ year old report of a student demo.  



> Commissioner Harris said there a conglomeration of groups involved in demonstrations including anti-maskers, anti-vaccination groups, anti-lockdown groups, and elements of the far-left and far-right.


How this appalling fucker defines the parameters of the 'far left' is anyone's guess.


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 27, 2021)

I decided to get more information from one of our Irish Urbans instead. 

ETA : with the need to recheck ....


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 27, 2021)

rekil said:


> Saul's vid is a 10+ year old report of a student demo.



  <rechecks links>

I'm not getting this ten-year-old thing with that vid,, rekil, and beer isn't helping ... .. what have I missed??


----------



## Aladdin (Feb 27, 2021)

rekil said:


> Saul's vid is a 10+ year old report of a student demo.
> 
> 
> How this appalling fucker defines the parameters of the 'far left' is anyone's guess.



Some of the crowd are wearing masks though???


----------



## Aladdin (Feb 27, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> I decided to get more information from one of our Irish Urbans instead. Yes, that' the lazy route, but those RTE links have provided better information than I had before and I didnlt even have to search!
> 
> Everyone's now better informed.
> 
> ...




The crowd fired fireworks at the gardai though. 

Just to give a bit of balance


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Feb 27, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> The crowd fired fireworks at the gardai though.
> 
> Just to give a bit of balance



At least it wasn’t coffee jars.


----------



## Orang Utan (Feb 27, 2021)

Lol:


----------



## Aladdin (Feb 27, 2021)

Saul Goodman said:


> Grafton Street, Dublin Today




Ah..ok

.that was not today...that's the student protest a decade ago.


----------



## Orang Utan (Feb 27, 2021)

rekil said:


> Saul's vid is a 10+ year old report of a student demo.
> 
> 
> How this appalling fucker defines the parameters of the 'far left' is anyone's guess.


He seems like a useful idiot:


----------



## Orang Utan (Feb 27, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> I decided to get more information from one of our Irish Urbans instead.
> 
> ETA : with the need to recheck ....


I have Irish pals who I follow on Twitter who are very reliable at reporting this sort of idiocy


----------



## Saul Goodman (Feb 27, 2021)

rekil said:


> Saul's vid is a 10+ year old report of a student demo.


Maybe check the news?


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 27, 2021)

Orang Utan  : OK, fair point  

I do need to do my research less drunkenly sometimes , ... but I only ever see Twitter threads or posts when people on here link to them ...


----------



## two sheds (Feb 27, 2021)

Orang Utan said:


> He seems like a useful idiot:



nice hat


----------



## Orang Utan (Feb 27, 2021)

two sheds said:


> nice hat


and epaulettes. One constant in life - the more elaborate an official's livery, the more ineffectual they are


----------



## Sue (Feb 27, 2021)

I love a nice epaulette/dubious hat.


----------



## eatmorecheese (Feb 28, 2021)

Tanzania leader says prayer will cure Covid, as hospitals overflow
					

Experts fear policies of John Magufuli could undermine vaccine programme in Africa




					www.theguardian.com
				




What on earth can be done with this sort of bullshit? How can Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda etc contain this when borders are effectively porous?


----------



## rekil (Feb 28, 2021)

> How this appalling fucker defines the parameters of the 'far left' is anyone's guess.


Ah the crank lashed to the wheel of the indymedia.ie ghost ship partly explains this. At least one strange hippy person there as well so new agey yoga pants filth probably getting lumped in as usual.

Hat tip to comrade Keyes for alerting me to Harris's new statement placing responsibility on the far right and conspiraloons.



Spoiler


----------



## Aladdin (Feb 28, 2021)

rekil said:


> Ah the crank lashed to the wheel of the indymedia.ie ghost ship partly explains this. At least one strange hippy person there as well so new agey yoga pants filth probably getting lumped in as usual.




You quoted my quote of your quote and somehow I got an alert that you'd quoted me. 🤪


----------



## Saul Goodman (Feb 28, 2021)

I must have grabbed the wrong video. Maybe check the news


----------



## Badgers (Feb 28, 2021)

Two coronavirus variants have merged – here's what you need to know
					

A single genome sequence has shown that the UK and California variants of the coronavirus have combined into a heavily mutated hybrid. Here’s what you need to know about this recombinant variant of the coronavirus




					www.newscientist.com


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 28, 2021)

Badgers  : That article looks good and well written enough for a non-scientist like me to (start to!) understand , but I suspect we'd need the thoughts of Urbans such as elbows and 2hats and prunus  to be able to get towards any possible conclusions ....


----------



## elbows (Feb 28, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> Badgers  : That article looks good and well written enough for a non-scientist like me to (start to!) understand , but I suspect we'd need the thoughts of Urbans such as elbows and 2hats and prunus  to be able to get towards any possible conclusions .... :reek:



Presently I have nothing more to say than when I wrote the following post earlier in February:            #241


----------



## William of Walworth (Feb 28, 2021)

elbows said:
			
		

> Presently I have nothing more to say than when I wrote the following post earlier in February:            #241



Thanks for that, I must have missed that earlier post from you.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 1, 2021)

There's not been much talk of Sweden lately. Prompted by some comments from some friends there (saying how it's good that there's no real lockdown but people are being careful, and posting photos of themselves going cross country skiing) I had a look at the numbers.

They seem to be seeing a crash in death rates much like the UK. But their cases numbers are on the rise again and I won't be surprised if that's what is around the corner for the UK too.


----------



## elbows (Mar 1, 2021)

Oops.



> *Mexico* has admitted that its controversial coronavirus tsar, *Hugo López-Gatell*, is in hospital with Covid after initially calling such reports “fake news”.
> 
> López-Gatell, who is a 52-year-old epidemiologist, tested positive for Covid on 20 February and has been in hospital since last Wednesday. But authorities only revealed the fact on Sunday after press reports that the health ministry initially denied.
> 
> On Sunday night health official *Ruy López Ridaura* said he hoped López-Gatell could be discharged on Monday or Tuesday and claimed he was doing well after being admitted to hospital last week with a “moderate” case and requiring supplemental oxygen.





> López-Gatell has faced heavy criticism for undermining the use of face masks and carrying out insufficient testing. In January he caused outrage by taking a beach holiday in *Oaxaca* despite government calls for citizens to remain at home. During his trip López-Gatell was photographed on a famous Pacific coast beach without a mask.



 4h ago 11:51


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 1, 2021)




----------



## elbows (Mar 1, 2021)

Over a year since I got some interesting reactions by mentioning anal or rectal swabs, we have this...

 5h ago 10:59 



> “Some Japanese reported to our embassy in China that they received anal swab tests, which caused a great psychologial pain,” Kato told a news conference. It was not known how many Japanese citizens received such tests for coronavirus, he said.
> 
> Some Chinese cities are using samples taken from the anus to detect potential Covid-19 infections as China steps up screening to make sure no potential carrier of the new coronavirus is missed.
> 
> China’s foreign ministry denied last month that US diplomats in the country had been required to take anal swab tests for Covid-19, following media reports that some had complained about the procedure.


----------



## yield (Mar 1, 2021)

Not sure if this has already been posted?

Finland Had a Patent-Free COVID-19 Vaccine Nine Months Ago — But Still Went With Big Pharma
Jacobin 02.28.2021


> “We felt it was our duty to start developing this type of alternative,” says professor Kalle Saksela, chair of the Department of Virology at the University of Helsinki. “Back in the spring, I still thought that surely some public entity will get involved and start pushing it forward. Turns out that no situation is urgent enough to compel the state to start actively pursuing something like this.”
> 
> Saksela’s team has had a patent-free COVID-19 vaccine ready since May 2020, which they dubbed “the Linux of vaccines” in a nod to the famous open-source operating system that also originated from Finland. The work is based on publicly available research data and predicated on the principle of sharing all new findings in peer-reviewed journals.





> The research team includes some of Finland’s scientific heavyweights, such as Academy professor Seppo Ylä-Herttuala of the A. I. Virtanen Institute, a former president of the European Society of Gene and Cell Therapy, and academician Kari Alitalo, a foreign associated member of the National Academy of Sciences in the United States. They believe their nasal spray, built on well-established technology and know-how, is safe and highly effective.
> 
> “It’s a finished product, in the sense that the formulation will no longer change in any way with further testing,” Saksela says. “With what we have, we could inoculate the whole population of Finland tomorrow.”
> "The Finnish vaccine provides a striking case study of the many ways in which the contemporary patent-based funding model has slowed down vaccine development."





> But instead of exploring the potential of intellectual property–free research, Finland, like other Western countries, has continued to follow the default policy of the last several decades: to lean fully on Big Pharma.
> 
> In the mainstream narrative, the first-generation COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca are typically presented as an illustration of how markets incentivize and accelerate vital innovation. In reality, the fact that the profit motive is the overriding force shaping medical research has been devastating — particularly in a global pandemic. The Finnish vaccine provides a striking case study of the many ways in which the contemporary patent-based funding model has slowed down vaccine development, and how it currently hampers the possibility of conducting effective mass-inoculation campaigns.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 1, 2021)

yield said:


> Not sure if this has already been posted?
> 
> Finland Had a Patent-Free COVID-19 Vaccine Nine Months Ago — But Still Went With Big Pharma
> Jacobin 02.28.2021


I hadn't seen it before. Crazy that they are not using it .. and spreading it wider ..


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 2, 2021)

These two....  

LOST 👍👍😁😁









						Court rejects challenge by Waters and O’Doherty to Covid laws
					

Court of Appeal says case over constitutionality of laws failed to raise issues of substance




					www.irishtimes.com


----------



## yield (Mar 2, 2021)

weltweit said:


> I hadn't seen it before. Crazy that they are not using it .. and spreading it wider ..


Ties into your thread weltweit. COVAX, the mechanism to spread vaccines to the world..


----------



## teqniq (Mar 4, 2021)

Things look really bad in Brazil:
(thread)


----------



## Orang Utan (Mar 4, 2021)

Is Bolsonaro to blame for this?


----------



## teqniq (Mar 4, 2021)

In part, I think.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 4, 2021)

Just to put Brazil in some context


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 4, 2021)

Orang Utan said:


> Is Bolsonaro to blame for this?



Like in the States there does seem to be a lot of conflict between federal and local authorities and all the finger pointing that comes with it.  Though, as the graph above this post shows, having a highly centralised system is not necessarily going to be more effective.


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 4, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Just to put Brazil in some context
> 
> View attachment 257224


Comparison not context, context is the circumstances forming the setting for an event. And what happens with covid in the UK has no bearing on what happens with covid in brazil


----------



## teuchter (Mar 4, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> Comparison not context, context is the circumstances forming the setting for an event. And what happens with covid in the UK has no bearing on what happens with covid in brazil


Yes it does. Stop talking nonsense.


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 4, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Yes it does. Stop talking nonsense.


----------



## kabbes (Mar 4, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Just to put Brazil in some context
> 
> View attachment 257224


It’s an example where a straightforward comparison of the death rate is not that meaningful, owing to the demographics of the population.  For example, 16.4% of the UK population is 65+ versus 9.5% of the Brazilian population, meaning that you might expect the UK death rate to be about 65% higher even if all other factors were held constant.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 4, 2021)

kabbes said:


> It’s an example where a straightforward comparison of the death rate is not that meaningful, owing to the demographics of the population.  For example, 16.4% of the UK population is 65+ versus 9.5% of the Brazilian population, meaning that you might expect the UK death rate to be about 65% higher even if all other factors were held constant.


Well, of course, but we can see that the situation in Brazil is not currently orders of magnitude worse than what has been experienced in various European nations, which is useful context in understanding the scale of things.


----------



## elbows (Mar 4, 2021)

I'm not convinced that we find it easy to talk about obesity properly. I'm certainly not that confident about aspectss of the subject as I have put my foot in it in the past. And thats a problem as it seems likely that its a very important factor in this pandemic.



> “The correlation between obesity and mortality rates from Covid-19 is clear and compelling,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
> 
> “Investment in public health and coordinated, international action to tackle the root causes of obesity is one of the best ways for countries to build resilience in health systems post-pandemic: we urge all countries to seize this moment.”













						Covid deaths high in countries with more overweight people, says report
					

Governments urged to prioritise obese people for vaccinations over greater risk of death from coronavirus




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## IC3D (Mar 4, 2021)

I'd say the next contributing factor after age easily.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 4, 2021)

I wonder what specifically they defined as "overweight"?


----------



## IC3D (Mar 4, 2021)

weltweit said:


> I wonder what specifically they defined as "overweight"?


 25-29kg/m2 Id have thought


----------



## kabbes (Mar 5, 2021)

elbows said:


> I'm not convinced that we find it easy to talk about obesity properly. I'm certainly not that confident about aspectss of the subject as I have put my foot in it in the past. And thats a problem as it seems likely that its a very important factor in this pandemic.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


It’s quite hard to disaggregate obesity from lots of other factors when doing a simple correlation analysis, though.  The countries on the left of that table are all poorer countries whilst those on the right are richer countries and that implies that there are lots of systematic differences between left and hand right hand tables beyond obesity.

Now, I would be amazed if obesity _wasn’t_ a factor because it is a risk factor for many health conditions.  Obesity, I am dimly aware, triggers off lots of changes to the immune system, which makes it the perfect candidate when trying to understand epidemiological drivers.  I’m just saying that a comparison of death rates with obesity rates isn’t going to convince me of much by itself without some further suggestion that the specific mechanism has been identified.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 5, 2021)

It's a bit annoying that that guardian article doesn't provide a link to the report it is discussing.


----------



## William of Walworth (Mar 5, 2021)

teuchter said:


> It's a bit annoying that that guardian article doesn't provide a link to the report it is discussing.



That article might have been recently edited, perhaps, but if you click the World Obesity Foundation link in the first paragraph (of the Guardian report), you get to the W.O.F. report a little way down the home page.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 5, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> That article might have been recently edited, perhaps, but if you click the World Obesity Foundation link in the first paragraph (of the Guardian report), you get to the W.O.F. report a little way down the home page.


Thanks. Maybe because I was looking at it on mobile. Report link -



			https://www.worldobesityday.org/assets/downloads/COVID-19-and-Obesity-The-2021-Atlas.pdf
		



They do address the correlation with wealth thing. And they say that after adjusting for it, the link is still clear. I'm not a statistician though so am unable to assess the reasoning.


----------



## Cid (Mar 5, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Well, of course, but we can see that the situation in Brazil is not currently orders of magnitude worse than what has been experienced in various European nations, which is useful context in understanding the scale of things.



You’re assuming all other factors are the same... access to healthcare, accurate recording of cause of death, actually recording deaths etc.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 5, 2021)

Cid said:


> You’re assuming all other factors are the same...


What makes you think that?


----------



## Cid (Mar 5, 2021)

teuchter said:


> What makes you think that?



Er... the fact you’re making direct comparisons based on reported data.


----------



## kabbes (Mar 5, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Thanks. Maybe because I was looking at it on mobile. Report link -
> 
> 
> 
> ...


They do, and thanks for posting it.  Crucially, they don’t just identify the obesity-death link by stacking obesity rates against death rates by country.  They do it using an ANOVA approach (which I still have some technical quibbles over, but recognise these are unlikely in practice to matter), which basically asks things like “_within_ a country, is there a difference in rate, and can we see this difference consistently across multiple countries?”


----------



## hash tag (Mar 6, 2021)

The Dalai Lama gets his jab His Holiness the 14th Dalai Lama | The 14th Dalai Lama


----------



## Flavour (Mar 7, 2021)

Cases are on the rise all over Italy, I think it's a matter of weeks before another full lockdown unfortunately, though there's absolutely no appetite for it. Maybe it won't go back to like how it was in March 2020 but the entire country in "red zone" is a distinct possibility. Meanwhile the island of Sardinia is in "white zone" meaning life has essentially "returned to normal" (with masks obv)


----------



## LDC (Mar 8, 2021)

News reporting Assad and his wife have covid.


----------



## Orang Utan (Mar 8, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> News reporting Assad and his wife have covid.


----------



## spring-peeper (Mar 10, 2021)

Just a quick post, mainly because I'm annoyed.

Phoned my 87 y/o father who has Parkinston - he has no idea when he will be able to get the vaccine.

He says it doesn't bother him, but it bothers me.


----------



## Supine (Mar 10, 2021)

spring-peeper said:


> Just a quick post, mainly because I'm annoyed.
> 
> Phoned my 87 y/o father who has Parkinston - he has no idea when he will be able to get the vaccine.
> 
> He says it doesn't bother him, but it bothers me.



If he is in the UK he should have had it a long time ago. Phone his doctor.


----------



## spring-peeper (Mar 10, 2021)

Supine said:


> If he is in the UK he should have had it a long time ago. Phone his doctor.




He is not eligible - he can not get his shot until the government says he can.

I'm from Ontario, Quebec is starting over 65's - 


Last time I checked (maybe a week), Canada ranks 43 globally wrt shots per capita.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 10, 2021)

Portugal
Today 22 deaths 642 new cases
Overall vaccine roll out slow, mainly due to production targets not being met in the EU procurement scheme. We still haven't completed the most vulnerable group. However, as the decline in cases, death, and hospitalisations continues, the President has just gone through the  fortnightly short consultation meetings with all the parties represented in Parliament to hear their views and proposals before the State of Emergency is reviewed and renewed. 

You can get a flavour of what the parties say by their short press releases and the mood is generally one of a cautious approach to de-escalating the present confinement regulations. Some debate about the R number ie is it .7 or.9, if it's the latter then it's rising with no confirmation at this stage by DSG (Health) and thank heavens we don't have the press and media pushing the boundaries about opening up etc. Looks likely that consideration will be given to schools opening, possibly child care and hairdressers in the first stage. Then non essential shops, bars and cafes etc. Some parties are arguing for a de-escalation by tiers (see map below where red = extreme high risk above 760m cases per 1000, orange= very high risk 480-960, yellow =high risk=240-480m, and white =moderate below 240 per 1000 )

The long term hope is that tourism in some form based on either proof of negative test or vaccine proof will begin May however at the moment there are no direct flights to the UK and the land borders are closed with Spain with the exception of those with work permits.

The UK variant is 65% of cases, there have been 3 reported cases of the Brazil one.


----------



## zora (Mar 10, 2021)

spring-peeper said:


> Just a quick post, mainly because I'm annoyed.
> 
> Phoned my 87 y/o father who has Parkinston - he has no idea when he will be able to get the vaccine.
> 
> He says it doesn't bother him, but it bothers me.



That does sound extremely late? My dad, age 79, has just had his first shot yesterday - this is in Germany, obviously way behind the UK in that respect, like 6 or 8 weeks later. 
So no matter how much Canada is lagging behind on vaccinations, surely age 87 with Parkinsons he should be getting a date at least?

Eta: Yikes, just had a google and found this Toronto responds to criticism that it is falling behind other regions in vaccinating people over the age of 80.

Am I reading the article right in that from the 15th of this month general booking for the over 80s is opening? Apols if I am stating the obvious or misunderstanding something, but I would certainly also be concerned if my parent was in that situation. :/


----------



## spring-peeper (Mar 10, 2021)

zora said:


> That does sound extremely late? My dad, age 79, has just had his first shot yesterday - this is in Germany, obviously way behind the UK in that respect, like 6 or 8 weeks later.
> So no matter how much Canada is lagging behind on vaccinations, surely age 87 with Parkinsons he should be getting a date at least?
> 
> Eta: Yikes, just had a google and found this Toronto responds to criticism that it is falling behind other regions in vaccinating people over the age of 80.
> ...



Nope, you seem to have the correct about your assumptions.

Actually, Toronto is much further ahead with their vaccinations.  They get the lions share, then Ottawa, then slow trickles into the rural areas.  Dad lives in Brockville, so he will get before us.

But, on the other hand, Toronto and area make up the bulk of cases.  

Where I am, we have very little of the virus. 

This is the cases for my area.  I'm in North Glengarry.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 10, 2021)

Periodically I have a look at the UK compared to other western european nations that are of interest for various reasons; here's how things look at the moment.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 11, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Portugal
> Today 22 deaths 642 new cases
> Overall vaccine roll out slow, mainly due to production targets not being met in the EU procurement scheme. We still haven't completed the most vulnerable group. However, as the decline in cases, death, and hospitalisations continues, the President has just gone through the  fortnightly short consultation meetings with all the parties represented in Parliament to hear their views and proposals before the State of Emergency is reviewed and renewed.
> 
> ...



You mention the slow vaccine roll out due to the EU supply problems what's your feel for take-up and has the Portuguese government made the same stupid mistake and pointlessly undermined confidence in the AZ jab as other EU governments have?


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 11, 2021)

Teaboy said:


> You mention the slow vaccine roll out due to the EU supply problems what's your feel for take-up and has the Portuguese government stupidly and pointlessly undermined confidence in the AZ jab as other EU governments have?


There's no significant anti vax movement in Portugal and unlike France no history of anti vax. The government hasn't undermined confidence in the AZ vaccine and has now extended approval of the AZ vaccines for over 65s. In fact, if anything there has been a lot of lobbying around who, in addition to the elderly and health workers, is in the priority groups ( teachers and teaching assistants have just been included) and a couple of cases of public service officials being jumping the queue. Originally the military, firefighters, security services, and a handful of key political figures including cabinet ministers, public prosecutors and some lawmakers. were in the priority groups along with the over 80s and   over-50s with pre-existing health conditions. . However, only 2.4m doses have arrived instead of 4.5m so 90% will go to the elderly and  pre-existing cohorts. As production increases no doubt more vaccines will arrive but it means that unlike the UK the deconfinement process is not underpinned by mass vaccination.

The Portuguese Government which is the Socialist Party ( similar to Labour in the UK) is very much uncritical of the EU procurement issue mainly because its Portugals turn to chair the EU Council and there are no national elections on the horizon. The parties to the left , the PCP (Communist)  and Left Block which do have seats in Parliament have however been extremely critical both in the Portuguese Parliament and the EU.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 11, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> There's no significant anti vax movement in Portugal and unlike France no history of anti vax. The government hasn't undermined confidence in the AZ vaccine and has now extended approval of the AZ vaccines for over 65s. In fact, if anything there has been a lot of lobbying around who, in addition to the elderly and health workers, is in the priority groups ( teachers and teaching assistants have just been included) and a couple of cases of public service officials being jumping the queue. Originally the military, firefighters, security services, and a handful of key political figures including cabinet ministers, public prosecutors and some lawmakers. were in the priority groups along with the over 80s and   over-50s with pre-existing health conditions. . However, only 2.4m doses have arrived instead of 4.5m so 90% will go to the elderly and  pre-existing cohorts. As production increases no doubt more vaccines will arrive but it means that unlike the UK the deconfinement process is not underpinned by mass vaccination.
> 
> The Portuguese Government which is the Socialist Party ( similar to Labour in the UK) is very much uncritical of the EU procurement issue mainly because its Portugals turn to chair the EU Council and there are no national elections on the horizon. The parties to the left , the PCP (Communist)  and Left Block which do have seats in Parliament have however been extremely critical both in the Portuguese Parliament and the EU.



Thanks for that.  All very interesting.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 11, 2021)

No actual link found - purely precautionary but









						Several EU countries suspend AstraZeneca vaccine to investigate blood clot cases
					

European Medicines Agency say ‘benefits outweigh its risks’ and vaccine can continue to be used




					www.theguardian.com
				





> Denmark’s national health agency has said it is temporarily suspending inoculations with the AstraZeneca vaccine after blood clots formed in several people who had the jab, one of whom has reportedly died.
> 
> The agency said on Thursday it had not conclusively established a link between the clots and the vaccine, but said it had asked the regional authorities in charge of the vaccination programme to stop using the AstraZeneca shot for the time being.
> 
> The agency said it would reassess the situation in consultation with the Danish medicines agency in two weeks’ time, but stressed there was “good evidence that the vaccine is both safe and effective”.


----------



## Supine (Mar 11, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Several EU countries suspend AstraZeneca vaccine to investigate blood clot cases
> 
> 
> European Medicines Agency say ‘benefits outweigh its risks’ and vaccine can continue to be used
> ...



I saw the EMA alert yesterday but didn't post because it might scare people needlessly


----------



## two sheds (Mar 11, 2021)

Oops - can be good to scare people needlessly though 

Eta: proviso added though.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 11, 2021)

Bloodclots from a simple immune response ?
What would the mechanism be ?
Especially after how many million doses ?


----------



## 2hats (Mar 11, 2021)

Here the data plotted are for France but a similar effect has been reported in Italy, Spain, the US, UK.


----------



## Supine (Mar 11, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> Bloodclots from a simple immune response ?
> What would the mechanism be ?
> Especially after how many million doses ?



If you jabb millions of old people you find some of them drop dead for a variety of reasons. None related to the jab. It's right to err on the side of caution so the batch is being investigated but this is normal practice for all medicines. Pharmacovigilence is a well established area of study for vaccines. Nothing to be worried about at this point.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 11, 2021)

two sheds /worrying people needlessly since 2001


----------



## 2hats (Mar 11, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> Bloodclots from a simple immune response ?
> What would the mechanism be ?
> Especially after how many million doses ?


Far, far lower than the thrombosis rate due to COVID-19.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 11, 2021)

2hats said:


> Far, far lower than the thrombosis rate due to COVID-19.


Indeed.
Is there anything that could fit in such a tiny vaccine dose of clear fluid  that could actually cause a clot ?


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 11, 2021)

The hysteria is apparently spreading





> *Translation results*
> The AstraZeneca vaccine and batches withdrawn, in Italy and in several European countries In Italy, the Medicines Agency has banned the use of a batch of AstraZeneca vaccine as a precaution after "adverse events" were recorded, but the link with the vaccine has not yet been ascertained. In other European countries the suspension was decided, for a different batch The AstraZeneca vaccine and batches withdrawn, in Italy and in various European countries shadow Aifa, the Italian drug agency, has blocked the use of a batch of AstraZeneca's Covid vaccine. The decision, relating to a single lot - from code ABV2856 - came following the reporting of some «serious adverse events», in «temporal concomitance with the administration of doses of the vaccine». Aifa claims that this decision was taken as a precautionary measure: in other words, there is no evidence that the vaccine caused the "adverse events" - circulatory problems attributable to thrombosis - while, at the moment, these are reports related to " temporal concomitance ". In its statement, Aifa writes that "at the moment no causal link has been established between the administration of the vaccine and these events", and explains that it is "carrying out all the necessary veracities, acquiring clinical documentation in close collaboration with the NAS and the competent authorities". The samples of the withdrawn batch "will be analyzed by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità". According to the Ansa agency, doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine belonging to batch ABV2856 were also administered in the Aosta Valley between 10 and 19 February. The health director of the Calle d’Aostra Local Health Authority Maurizio Castelli explained that no particular side effects were found. The Ema - the European Medicines Agency - has clarified that, while the investigations continue, the administration of the vaccine produced by the Anglo-Swedish pharmaceutical company is to be considered safe and can continue, and that the benefits of the anti Covid vaccine developed by AstraZeneca outweigh the risks. The Italian Prime Minister, Mario Draghi, had a telephone conversation with the President of the European Commission, Ursula Von der Leyen. From the conversation it emerged that there is no evidence of a link between the cases of thrombosis recorded in Europe and the administration of the AstraZeneca vaccine. What are the "adverse events" in Italy Aifa did not specify the "adverse events" that led to the precautionary suspension. The Reuters agency, which cites sources familiar with the matter, explains that these are two deaths recorded in Sicily. One of these cases concerns a soldier serving in Augusta, Stefano Paternò, 43, originally from Corleone, but residing in Misterbianco (Catania). For his death there are about ten suspects, accused of manslaughter. Another case is that of Davide Villa, 50, a police officer. Villa and Paternò had received the AstraZeneca vaccine: the first a few days before, the second the day before death. The doses belonged to the batch withdrawn from AIFA. There is no confirmation - it must be repeated - that these deaths are attributable to the vaccine. Denmark's decision on the AstraZeneca vaccine On the same day today, Denmark and 6 other European countries decided to suspend the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. This decision - the Danish authorities explained - is linked to reports of "serious adverse events" recorded in Denmark, also in this case thrombosis, for which at the moment the causal link with the administration of the vaccine is not certain. In particular, in Denmark one of these adverse events is related to a death. Denmark has decided to suspend the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine for 14 days, and specified that this choice does not at all imply that the AstraZeneca vaccine will no longer be used in the country at all. The lot we are talking about in this case is different from the one distributed in Italy, and was instead distributed in 17 European countries. Seven of these countries - *Estonia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Norway, Iceland and Denmark -* have decided to suspend the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine. Spain claimed that it has not registered any cases of thrombosis, and that it will continue to use the vaccine produced by the Anglo-Swedish company on a regular basis. The EMA's response on thrombosis cases EMA, the European Medicines Agency, reported that the risk of blood clots is no greater in vaccinated people. "The information available so far," said Ema, "indicates that the number of thromboembolic events in vaccinated people is no higher than that observed in the rest of the population.

















						Lotti ritirati in Italia e Ue. L'Ema:  «30 casi di  trombosi su 5 mln».  Rezza invia gli ispettori
					

In Italia l’Agenzia del farmaco ha vietato l’utilizzo di un lotto di vaccino AstraZeneca dopo che sono stati registrati «eventi avversi», dei quali non è ancora però accertato il legame con il vaccino. In altri Paesi d’Europa è stata decisa la sospensione, per un lotto diverso




					www.corriere.it


----------



## 2hats (Mar 11, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> The hysteria is apparently spreading
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Whereas Spain reports no incidents.








						Spain to keep using AstraZeneca vaccine, no blood clot cases reported
					

Spain has registered no cases of blood clots related to AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccine so far and will continue administering the shot, Health Minister Carolina Darias said on Thursday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## two sheds (Mar 11, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> Indeed.
> Is there anything that could fit in such a tiny vaccine dose of clear fluid  that could actually cause a clot ?



Nanobots? 5g transmitters are likely blood vessel sized


----------



## Supine (Mar 11, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Nanobots? 5g transmitters are likely blood vessel sized



Apparently when the nanobots achieve full AI they form Borg collectives. These could cause them.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 11, 2021)

I always fancied   7 of 9  - a bit of Borg enhancement


----------



## two sheds (Mar 11, 2021)

Improves your serve so I hear.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 11, 2021)

It'd be cool if someone hacked the hive brain and everyone broke out into coordinated dance


----------



## William of Walworth (Mar 11, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> It'd be cool if *someone hacked the hive brain* and everyone *broke out into coordinated dance*




Or co-ordinated monothought, in as cliquey a way as possible ...


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 12, 2021)

EU, UK and USA amongst those who opposed liberalising covid vaccine intellectual property right at the World Health Organisation 









						Rich countries block push by developing nations to waive COVID vaccine patents rights
					

Richer members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) blocked a push by over 80 developing countries on Wednesday (10 March) to waive patent rights in an effort to boost production of COVID-19 vaccines for poor nations.




					www.euractiv.com


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Mar 12, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> EU, UK and USA amongst those who opposed liberalising covid vaccine intellectual property right at the World Health Organisation
> 
> 
> 
> ...


added to the absence of funding for the patrent free Finnish vaccine it is all business as usual :/


----------



## 2hats (Mar 13, 2021)

> We analyze data from the Fall 2020 pandemic response efforts at the University of Colorado Boulder (USA), where more than 72,500 saliva samples were tested for SARS-CoV-2 using quantitative RT-PCR. *We find that, at any given time, just 2% of individuals carry 90% of the virions circulating within communities, serving as viral “super-carriers” and possibly also super-spreaders.*
> 
> It should be noted that all of the samples analyzed herein were collected before the B.1.1.7 (“U.K.”) SARS-CoV-2 variant, and subsequent major variants of concern, were first documented in the United States.


DOI: 10.1101/2021.03.01.21252250.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 13, 2021)

Telegraph reporting that Portugal is to come off the UKs red list on Monday. Lower schools go back here next week and hairdressers etc open and most importantly bars and cafes with outside areas open April 5th.


----------



## Supine (Mar 13, 2021)




----------



## The39thStep (Mar 13, 2021)

The Portuguese Health have quantified in figures the red lines for the control of the pandemic in Portugal.



> Among the criteria that will determine whether the country can open or close is the incidence of Covid-19, which cannot exceed 60 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. Portugal has 105 at this point.
> 
> If, after the start of the deflation plan, we reach 240 cases, we will be at the critical value that requires more restrictive measures again.
> 
> ...


----------



## HAL9000 (Mar 14, 2021)

Sounds like Israel's vaccine passport might be flawed





__





						The RISKS Digest, Volume 32 Issue 54
					






					catless.ncl.ac.uk
				






> The other (recommended) form, is a phone app which connects to a MOH site
> and displays information about the current status of COVID19 infection in
> the area, and when supplied with an ID, checks for Green Tag eligibility.
> If the answer is positive, it displays only a GIF image of green people
> ...



View attachment green-label-he.mp4


----------



## 2hats (Mar 14, 2021)

HAL9000 said:


> Sounds like Israel's vaccine passport might be flawed


All vaccine passports are flawed. They (at best, assuming no one tries to game/cheat the system) only tell you who has received a vaccine but tell you nothing about the state of the holder's immune response and thus risk they pose to others (some vaccinated people will have no immune response).


----------



## HAL9000 (Mar 14, 2021)

2hats said:


> All vaccine passports are flawed. They (at best, assuming no one tries to game/cheat the system) only tell you who has received a vaccine but tell you nothing about the state of the holder's immune response and thus risk they pose to others (some vaccinated people will have no immune response).



True, but a passport which is just security theater is a complete waste of money.  
If it can be shown that people who've had the vaccine are significantly less likely to spread the virus,  a vaccine passport might help.   If everyone in a club had a vaccine that would allow nightclubs to open without increasing virus spread.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2021)

2hats said:


> All vaccine passports are flawed. They (at best, assuming no one tries to game/cheat the system) only tell you who has received a vaccine but tell you nothing about the state of the holder's immune response and thus risk they pose to others (some vaccinated people will have no immune response).



I suppose I should not be surprised that this phase features very few signs that anything we say is going to win the battle against people thinking about vaccination in binary terms. I appluad your continual efforts on this front, but much of what I've heard from people since December makes me quite defeatist about this.


----------



## elbows (Mar 14, 2021)

Any idea what the new information from Norway is?











						Covid-19: NI to keep using AstraZeneca jab after Irish suspension
					

The Republic of Ireland stops using the vaccine after reports of blood clotting in adults in Norway.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## two sheds (Mar 14, 2021)

It's bloody brexit again isn't it - like Eurovision Song Contest all over again nul points whenever they can give it


----------



## William of Walworth (Mar 14, 2021)

two sheds said:


> *It's bloody brexit again isn't it* - like Eurovision Song Contest all over again nul points whenever they can give it



And very slightly relevant, if at all, to Oxford/AstraZeneca's _actual efficacy_ as a vaccine.

My one-person expert opinion  is that I received that vaccine last Thursday, and as it turned out, with no side-effects whatsoever ...


----------



## two sheds (Mar 14, 2021)

Yeh but whatever the actual efficacy of the song _as a Eurovision Song_ we get nul points 




Disclaimer I never actually watch the fucking thing.


----------



## kabbes (Mar 15, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Yeh but whatever the actual efficacy of the song _as a Eurovision Song_ we get nul points
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Spoiler: nul points is always a fair score.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 15, 2021)

This hyperbolic bullshit is going to reduce vaccine takeup and cost lives


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 15, 2021)

BMJ article :-









						Covid-19: European countries suspend use of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine after reports of blood clots
					

Denmark has temporarily suspended use of the Oxford-AstraZeneca covid-19 vaccine as a precautionary move after reports of blood clots and one death. However, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and the UK’s regulatory body have said that there is no indication that vaccination is linked to...




					www.bmj.com


----------



## Sunray (Mar 15, 2021)

The EU UK vaccination thing is still rumbling on.  It’s entirely down to the EU fucking up. Taking all of the UK’s vaccine  supply would do little to dent what is a massive task for the EU.  A task the USA has taken on, now vaccinating an amazing 3 million people a day. This is the scale the EU needs to be looking to achieve.
I’m puzzled why they can’t? They surely have the ability to make vaccines in every country.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 15, 2021)

I can only assume that a lot of EU countries enjoy lockdowns and people dying needlessly.  Talk about fiddling whilst Rome burns.  Pontificating arses.


----------



## Flavour (Mar 15, 2021)

Sunray said:


> They surely have the ability to make vaccines in every country.



don't think so.


----------



## elbows (Mar 15, 2021)

Its a messy subject because clearly there has been politics involved with the vaccination programme for months. But at the same time I fully support precautionary principals, and being seen to take adverse reactions seriously is actually part of a sensible system to balance public perceptions and actual risk.

eg:









						‘Small number' of clot reports in Republic of Ireland following AstraZeneca vaccination
					

The European Medicines Agency has initiated an urgent review of all clotting events occurring with the vaccine.




					www.irishnews.com
				






> “It’s very important to reassure people that there is no evidence of a cause and effect at this point,” he said.
> 
> “We have a safety signal and when we get those we have to act and proceed on the basis of a precautionary principle. So hopefully, as this week goes on, we’ll get more reassuring data from the EMA and we can recommence the programme.
> 
> “It may be nothing, we may be overreacting, and I sincerely hope that in a week’s time we are accused of being overcautious.”


----------



## elbows (Mar 15, 2021)

Also this bit of BBC analysis:



> These pauses for the AstraZeneca vaccine are not because it is unsafe to give. It's to allow time for experts to explore why a small number of people who were recently given the shot also developed blood clots.
> 
> When an illness occurs shortly after vaccination, it is right to question whether the shot might have contributed in any way.



From Covid-19: Netherlands suspends use of AstraZeneca vaccine

I agree, its the right thing to do.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 15, 2021)

Does that mean that the UK is doing the wrong thing in continuing with AZ doses?


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 15, 2021)

It certainly damages even further the confidence in that particular vaccine which was already very shaky due to some stupid statements by certain EU leaders.


----------



## elbows (Mar 15, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Does that mean that the UK is doing the wrong thing in continuing with AZ doses?



I cant tell, I dont have the data or the right expert knowledge. I just know I'm not going to write off concerns as being entirely political, and that the approach is bound to vary a bit depending on the authority in question.


----------



## elbows (Mar 15, 2021)

Teaboy said:


> It certainly damages even further the confidence in that particular vaccine which was already very shaky due to some stupid statements by certain EU leaders.



Doing nothing is also bad for public confidence - one of the reasons authorities like to be seen as taking a cautious, precautionary approach is to maintain public confidence, not be accused of covering things up, not get in shit later if there is an issue.


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (Mar 15, 2021)

Read earlier that 17m doses of the AZ vaccine have been given, 40 people have had blood clots/DVT after having had the shot. There's no direct link between the two. Is 40 out of 17,000,000 anything to even remotely worry about?


----------



## two sheds (Mar 15, 2021)

elbows said:


> Also this bit of BBC analysis:
> 
> It's to allow time for experts to explore why a small number of people who were recently given the shot also developed blood clots.
> 
> ...



Good point. I wonder whether had diet, condition that meant they were susceptible to getting blood clots. And whether this might help identifying people who are susceptible to getting blood clots more widely. I'm hoping that the study of people with lung conditions due to long covid will help with asthma treatments for example.

/we can always hope


----------



## Brainaddict (Mar 15, 2021)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> Read earlier that 17m doses of the AZ vaccine have been given, 40 people have had blood clots/DVT after having had the shot. There's no direct link between the two. Is 40 out of 17,000,000 anything to even remotely worry about?


No. People have totally lost it over this.

I suspect there's no link anyway, but even if there were, the public health benefit of continuing to use the vaccine - while supply of others is limited - is so overwhelming that I can only assume that covid has sent a bunch of European leaders and scientists mad. Thousands are dying every day, and mostly blood clots aren't even fatal, and those numbers are tiny.

By all means investigate, but pausing is literally going to kill people.


----------



## Brainaddict (Mar 15, 2021)

elbows said:


> Also this bit of BBC analysis:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Surprised to see you say this. While supplies of other vaccines are constrained there's going to be a measurable death toll to pausing use of AZ vaccine. I can't balance it out in my head so that pausing makes sense.


----------



## LDC (Mar 15, 2021)

Brainaddict said:


> Surprised to see you say this. While supplies of other vaccines are constrained there's going to be a measurable death toll to pausing use of AZ vaccine. I can't balance it out in my head so that pausing makes sense.



Liability and public confidence in vaccination? If they don't pause it, and some link is found, then it'd be very messy legally, and in countries where vaccine confidence is already low that could give it a death blow.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 15, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> If they don't pause it, and some link is found, *then it'd be very messy legally*,


I don't really see why that would be the case. It would depend on how plausible a link is, and an assessment of the risks relative to delaying the rollout. Otherwise you would have to pause the vaccination process every single time something bad happened to anyone who had been given it.


----------



## Brainaddict (Mar 15, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Liability and public confidence in vaccination? If they don't pause it, and some link is found, then it'd be very messy legally, and in countries where vaccine confidence is already low that could give it a death blow.


I think they're doing more damage to confidence by pausing. It's already 'the dodgy one' in a lot of Europe, this is going to confirm that reputation. I think what has damaged confidence is authorities making inappropriate public statements about a small possible side effect of a vaccine with very high benefits. As I say, even if the AZ vaccine is causing a few bloodclots, they need to carry on using it anyway until there's a supply of other vaccines. Sorry, sometimes medicines have side-effects - there's always a bit of a cost-benefit calculation.

Edit to add - obviously if there were massive negative effects to it I would agree with suspending it. But this is not massive, though I understand it is upsetting for the few people concerned.


----------



## IC3D (Mar 15, 2021)

Blood clotting is a recognised covid 19 symptom it can cause a rash or pulmary embolism amongst other things. It is not a sign your immune system is doing very well. 
It's a marker of severe illness not something you want in a vaccine.


----------



## LDC (Mar 15, 2021)

teuchter said:


> I don't really see why that would be the case. It would depend on how plausible a link is, and an assessment of the risks relative to delaying the rollout. Otherwise you would have to pause the vaccination process every single time something bad happened to anyone who had been given it.



Yeah, I kind of agree, but it's the only thing I can think of that's motivating these pauses.


----------



## LDC (Mar 15, 2021)

IC3D said:


> Blood clotting is a recognised covid 19 symptom it can cause a rash or pulmary embolism amongst other things. It is not a sign your immune system is doing very well.
> It's a marker of severe illness not something you want in a vaccine.



No, it's not a recognized symptom of covid infection. VTEs happen to _some_ patients that have covid, but it's very far from all patients. What do you mean it's a marker of severe illness? Generally, or covid related? And obviously it's not something you want a vaccine to cause, just as well that currently there's no evidence that this is the case.


----------



## Supine (Mar 15, 2021)

IC3D said:


> It's a marker of severe illness not something you want in a vaccine.



the data isn't showing any relationship between the vaccine and blood clots so that's ok.


----------



## LDC (Mar 15, 2021)

Already heard a story from family friend today, classic son of a friend knows someone who had a clot in the brain after having the vaccine and the doctor said the vaccine is the only thing that it could have caused it.


----------



## Brainaddict (Mar 15, 2021)

I actually know someone who went into hospital for blood clots shortly after having the vaccine.

It was the Pfizer vaccine.


----------



## Smangus (Mar 15, 2021)

Had my vaccine on Friday, no ill effect apart from a bit of a sore arm , now based on he EU reaction should I start necking aspirins?


----------



## LDC (Mar 15, 2021)

VTEs are reasonably common, I used to work in a hospital department that saw loads every week in all ages.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 15, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Already heard a story from family friend today, classic son of a friend knows someone who had a clot in the brain after having the vaccine and the doctor said the vaccine is the only thing that it could have caused it.



The next few years we are going to be saturated with these sorts of tales.  Cancer will be the one given how many people are diagnosed with cancer on any given day think how many will be diagnosed after having had a vaccine. It can only of been the vaccine!!!11!

Its going to be relentless


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 15, 2021)

Smangus said:


> Had my vaccine on Friday, no ill effect apart from a bit of a sore arm , now based on he EU reaction should I start necking aspirins?



No good for me as I'm allergic to aspirin.  Its amazing how many very common drugs have quite extreme side affects in some people yet no one gives a shit.  Ibuprofen causes stomach bleeds yet some will still eat them like smarties.   Wevs.


----------



## Smangus (Mar 15, 2021)

Can't use Ibuprofen as it causes my asthma to kick off, paracetamol and liver damage all the way for me.


----------



## elbows (Mar 15, 2021)

Brainaddict said:


> Surprised to see you say this.



Well, dont be surprised. I support precautionary principals but I am also aware that there are some impossibly hard balancing acts at work.

I will almost always err on the side of full disclosure, downplaying things beyond a certain point is a recipe for disaster, even though disclosure and caution has consequences too.

I also find the vaccine era of the pandemic much more difficult to navigate from a commentary point of view, it will be quite easy for me to get things wrong. And I'm frequently being driven mad by giddy attitudes towards vaccination, and peoples tendency to see things in binary terms. For example I am going quite nuts about the picture some people have in their heads about what levels of death, personal risk etc are still on the table even when most are vaccinated, and what behaviours are acceptable then. But if I state my case too loudly, I might quite rightly be accused of painting too gloomy a picture. Only time will tell, there are plenty of unknowns in my mind.


----------



## IC3D (Mar 15, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> No, it's not a recognized symptom of covid infection. VTEs happen to _some_ patients that have covid, but it's very far from all patients. What do you mean it's a marker of severe illness? Generally, or covid related? And obviously it's not something you want a vaccine to cause, just as well that currently there's no evidence that this is the case.


Yes there are blood clotting abnormalities
In severely ill covid patients that are being increasingly recognised.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 15, 2021)

I cane the sprouts and broccoli, (vitamin K) but not at the sorts of levels that would give me grief if I was on warfarin ...
I actually bought some aspirin a while back, but to dissolve the enamel off of wire when soldering ...


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 15, 2021)

IC3D said:


> Yes there are blood clotting abnormalities
> In severely ill covid patients that are being increasingly recognised.



Yep, there seems to be plenty of research coming out suggesting a major link between Covid & blood clotting.



> Recent data from the Netherlands and France suggest that of the patients with coronavirus who are admitted to intensive care units (ICU), 30-70% develop blood clots in the deep veins of the legs, or in the lungs.
> 
> Around one in four coronavirus patients admitted to ICU will develop a pulmonary embolism.
> 
> These rates are much higher than we would usually see in patients requiring admission to ICU for reasons other than COVID-19.





> One theory is that the increased rate of blood clots in COVID-19 is simply a reflection of being particularly unwell and immobile.
> 
> However, the current data suggest the risk of blood clots is significantly greater in patients with COVID-19 than what is usually see in patients admitted to hospital and ICUs.
> 
> Another potential explanation is that the virus is directly impacting on the cells lining our blood vessels. When the body fights an infection, the immune system becomes activated to try and kill the invader, and research shows an activated immune system can cause blood clots.











						People with coronavirus are at risk of blood clots and strokes • Heart Research Institute UK
					

There is mounting evidence COVID-19 causes abnormalities in blood clotting, which can cause heart attacks and stroke.




					www.hriuk.org
				






> Blood clots continue to wreak havoc for patients with severe COVID-19 infection, and a new study explains what may spark them in up to half of patients.
> 
> The culprit: an autoimmune antibody that’s circulating in the blood, attacking the cells and triggering clots in arteries, veins, and microscopic vessels. Blood clots can cause life-threatening events like strokes. And, in COVID-19, microscopic clots may restrict blood flow in the lungs, impairing oxygen exchange.
> 
> Outside of novel coronavirus infection, these clot-causing antibodies are typically seen in patients who have the autoimmune disease antiphospholipid syndrome. The connection between autoantibodies and COVID-19 was unexpected, says co-corresponding author Yogen Kanthi, M.D., an assistant professor at the Michigan Medicine Frankel Cardiovascular Center and a Lasker Investigator at the National Institutes of Health’s National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.











						New Cause of COVID-19 Blood Clots Identified
					

A new study reveals the COVID-19 virus triggers production of autoantibodies circulating through the blood, causing blood coagulation and clots in people hospitalized with the disease.




					labblog.uofmhealth.org


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 15, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> No, it's not a recognized symptom of covid infection. VTEs happen to _some_ patients that have covid, but it's very far from all patients. What do you mean it's a marker of severe illness? Generally, or covid related? And obviously it's not something you want a vaccine to cause, just as well that currently there's no evidence that this is the case.


I'm still at the stage of trying to understand what the differences are between viruses - given that their "role" in nature seems mostly to bust up cells in the process of reproducing - I suppose it's down to all the particular cells that have ACE receptors ...

But in any case the AZ vaccine vector is presumably a low-impact respiratory virus even if it hadn't had its guts ripped out - and it's injected well away from the respiratory tract - though I wonder if there's a difference if it accidentally gets injected into a minor blood vessel rather than muscle ...


----------



## LDC (Mar 15, 2021)

IC3D said:


> Yes there are blood clotting abnormalities
> In severely ill covid patients that are being increasingly recognised.



Yes, but you're jumbling up all your terminology and being very unclear in what you're saying. Some very ill covid patients get VTEs, but that doesn't make it a symptom.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 15, 2021)

Early on in the epidemic I watched a short piece about what it's actually like being intubated and in an induced coma (?) for months - eek...


----------



## elbows (Mar 15, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Yep, there seems to be plenty of research coming out suggesting a major link between Covid & blood clotting.



And its been on my radar since the first wave because consequences such as strokes seem likely to be one of the reasons for a large gap between death certificate Covid-19 deaths and total excess deaths in that period. eg cases with a lack of severe respiratory symptoms not identified as likely cases at all, and then dropping dead.


----------



## LDC (Mar 15, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> Early on in the epidemic I watched a short piece about what it's actually like being intubated and in an induced coma (?) for months - eek...



I've intubated people and having done it and understanding how it works does help in making it less of a scary thing to go through (have been intubated as well). Although being done for a planned op must be so different to struggling for breath and being told you're going to be put on a ventilator as you're getting worse and you might not wake up. Must be fucking scary if you have any level of awareness tbh.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 15, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I've intubated people and having done it and understanding how it works does help in making it less of a scary thing to go through (have been intubated as well). Although being done for a planned op must be so different to struggling for breath and being told you're going to be put on a ventilator as you're getting worse and you might not wake up. Must be fucking scary if you have any level of awareness tbh.


I follow Michael Rosen on Facebook - I suspect he's holding  a lot back ...


----------



## Sue (Mar 15, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> I follow Michael Rosen on Facebook - I suspect he's holding  a lot back ...


Don't know if you heard this but definitely worth a listen. (There's a particularly unexpected and heartbreaking bit from his consultant.)









						BBC Radio 4 - The Reunion, The Covid-19 ward
					

Michael Rosen and the medical staff who cared for him during his battle with coronavirus.




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 15, 2021)

Sue said:


> Don't know if you heard this but definitely worth a listen. (There's a particularly unexpected and heartbreaking bit from his consultant.)
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Thanks - very moving


----------



## LDC (Mar 15, 2021)

Yeah, the ICU stuff is heart breaking. People saying their goodbyes via a tablet/phone. Grim.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 15, 2021)

Portugal now off the UK government's red list. Still need to self isolate for twelve days and have two covid tests on return to the UK though.


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (Mar 15, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Portugal now off the UK government's red list. Still need to self isolate for twelve days and have two covid tests on return to the UK though.



Ten days, PCR test before you head to the U.K., two lateral flow tests to be taken on days 2 and 8 of quarantine, optional PCR test on day 5, if negative you can leave quarantine but still must take day 8 test. All four tests will set you back £450-£550.


----------



## stdP (Mar 16, 2021)

Brainaddict said:


> I think they're doing more damage to confidence by pausing. It's already 'the dodgy one' in a lot of Europe, this is going to confirm that reputation. I think what has damaged confidence is authorities making inappropriate public statements about a small possible side effect of a vaccine with very high benefits.
> 
> ...
> 
> Edit to add - obviously if there were massive negative effects to it I would agree with suspending it. But this is not massive, though I understand it is upsetting for the few people concerned.



My partner's been volunteering in some local vaccine centres and snagged themselves a spare first dose two weeks ago before this all kicked off... and was reduced to a terrified wreck with their family freaking out about it completely; (the Italian press seemingly being their typically sensationalist selves about it, stoked further by social media bollocks from an anti-vaxxer cousin going around the family whatsapp) who were spouting complete bollocks; hundreds of people were already dead and thousands more were going to die if they'd already taken the AZ vaccine, UK is covering up the deaths that's why you don't know about it, etc etc.

I'm the more scientific of the two of us and I'm usually pretty good at explaining why reporting on XYZ is complete gash and how they've misunderstood the data or are misrepresenting the statistics, that sort of thing (something now seemingly confirmed by the WHO, EMA and others in the case of the AZ vaccine). But this went in to a full-blown panic complete with psychosomatic symptoms which has taken two exasperating days to crawl out of (including two of the doctors from the centre having to explain the same thing about all available data pointing to no statistically observable link).

Sanity has once again vaguely asserted itself in this household, but all of their family members who had booked a vaccine have now cancelled. It's all made me rather angry.

Anyway, depressing anecdote and venting over but here's a nice little article that echoes your same point (and was written before the whole blood-clot thing blew up seemingly out of all proportion):








						AstraZeneca vaccine: careless talk has dented confidence and uptake in Europe
					

Stockpiles of this vaccine are going unused in France and Germany, and unfounded criticism of it may be partly to blame.




					theconversation.com


----------



## kabbes (Mar 16, 2021)

So yep, that deviancy amplification spiral is now WELL and truly in full spin mode.  Somehow it’s even more depressing when you spot it starting.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Mar 16, 2021)

Sunray said:


> The EU UK vaccination thing is still rumbling on.  It’s entirely down to the EU fucking up. Taking all of the UK’s vaccine  supply would do little to dent what is a massive task for the EU.  A task the USA has taken on, now vaccinating an amazing 3 million people a day. This is the scale the EU needs to be looking to achieve.
> I’m puzzled why they can’t? *They surely have the ability to make vaccines in every country*.


Probably but profit, patents, etc


----------



## LDC (Mar 16, 2021)

Giving the AZ/Ox this afternoon for the first time since this really hit the headlines. Expect a number of people will not turn up (or understandably will have questions) - will report back.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 16, 2021)

I see both the president of the German Medical Association, and the director general of Italy’s medicines authority AIFA, have spoken out against their governments suspending the roll out of the Oxford/AZ vaccine.



> Frank-Ulrich Montgomery, the President of the German Medical Association, does not approve of the suspension either. He told the ‘Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland’, according to the studies he knew about, the frequency of cerebral vein thrombosis cases in the AstraZeneca groups and the placebo groups had been more or less the same. Montgomery warned of the damage to the vaccine’s image. The fuss surrounding the suspension of this “good and effective vaccine” would not exactly lead to a higher acceptance.
> 
> LINK





> The decision by Germany, France and Italy to suspend AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 shots after several countries reported possible serious side-effects is a “political one”, the director general of Italy’s medicines authority AIFA said on Tuesday. “We got to the point of a suspension because several European countries, including Germany and France, preferred to interrupt vaccinations... to put them on hold in order to carry out checks. The choice is a political one,” Nicola Magrini told daily la Repubblica in an interview.
> 
> Magrini said that the AstraZeneca vaccine was safe and that the benefit to risk ratio of the jab is “widely positive”. There have been eight deaths and four cases of serious side-effects following vaccinations in Italy, he added. Aifa will take two to three days to collect all required data and once “doubts are cleared we can carry on at a faster speed than before,” Magrini said.
> 
> LINK


----------



## Supine (Mar 16, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Giving the AZ/Ox this afternoon for the first time since this really hit the headlines. Expect a number of people will not turn up (or understandably will have questions) - will report back.



Happy stabbing. Good work


----------



## hitmouse (Mar 16, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> I see both the president of the German Medical Association, and the director general of Italy’s medicines authority AIFA, have spoken out against their governments suspending the roll out of the Oxford/AZ vaccine.


Thanks for that - I have a friend who's recently had the first AZ jab, and has been if not entirely freaking out, then at least responding with the sort of worry that you might have if you'd just put something in your body that half of Europe has now announced is potentially unsafe, and I'm sure lots of people must be in a similar position, so being able to share reassuring stuff from people who know what they're on about is helpful.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 16, 2021)

hitmouse said:


> Thanks for that - I have a friend who's recently had the first AZ jab, and has been if not entirely freaking out, then at least responding with the sort of worry that you might have if you'd just put something in your body that half of Europe has now announced is potentially unsafe, and I'm sure lots of people must be in a similar position, so being able to share reassuring stuff from people who know what they're on about is helpful.



It's not just them, but both the UK & European regulators, plus the World Health Organisation, are all saying it's safe, and countries shouldn't be suspending their Oxford/AZ vaccination programmes.

Plus my SiL thinks it's nuts, and she's spent most of her life working in or running NHS labs, and knows shitloads of stuff that goes right over my head TBH.


----------



## stdP (Mar 16, 2021)

The other half has said there'd been 12 cancellations of their AZ appointments today citing the news, thinking it was unsafe and/or wanting to wait for one of the other vaccines.

The good news is that three of the people were convinced to resume their jab after the doctor asked to talk to them and laid out their take on the situation. The remaining nine slots were filled from the standby list within 20 minutes.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 16, 2021)

Today in Portugal cafes and bars who don’t do home delivery can open for food and beverages for takeaway . Nipped out at lunchtime to sample the local places . Menu very limited to either fried pork rolls or thin beef stakes ( one bar said they would try to do one substantial meal a day) but you could get a coffee and a brandy or a beer and drink it whilst you wait . At one bar the mobile fish van appeared so had to indulge .


----------



## teuchter (Mar 16, 2021)

Seeing the table wedged in the doorway there - such a familiar sight now in the UK too and presumably throughout Europe and much of the world.

It's strange in a way how quickly things become "normal". The idea that everywhere in Europe would be reduced to serving people through hatches with tables and chairs stacked up under dustsheets inside would have seemed quite shocking a little more than a year ago.


----------



## Supine (Mar 16, 2021)

Nice fish!


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 16, 2021)




----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 16, 2021)

The auto subtitles are a bit "interesting" - so best suited to Portuguese speakers ...


----------



## LDC (Mar 16, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> Giving the AZ/Ox this afternoon for the first time since this really hit the headlines. Expect a number of people will not turn up (or understandably will have questions) - will report back.



We had about 10 people not turn up today, out of about 200 or so, and usually they'd be a few at most. We also have hardly had any bookings for the other clinic this week so have had to cancel that. Fair few questions from people about the 'clotting issue'.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 16, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> The auto subtitles are a bit "interesting" - so best suited to Portuguese speakers ...


I can understand bits, enough to make a little sense and tbh its mainly just a summary of what the Health meeting covered-cancer, covid vaccinations state of play. some exercise of lockdown measures and Portugal submitted an idea that the role of the EMA should be bigger and we need to look at cross border issues, fruitful meeting to exchange views , something about a Europe for Health. Thats it. Nothing to see tbh

Meanwhile, in reality (the following is my view, not hers) some EU countries are sitting on half the allocation which is stored in fridges, and that's on top of delivery and production issues. No countries have been singled out but the EU leadership is now pushed to say to them get your fingers out. There was an article in one of the biggest Portuguese papers Expresso  ( a bit like the Guardian but with more backbone) that the EU bureaucracy has failed in vaccine delivery.


----------



## miss direct (Mar 16, 2021)

Almost 17,000 new cases in Turkey today (and that's only the ones they are open about, AND with comparatively low numbers of tests). Not looking good.


----------



## William of Walworth (Mar 16, 2021)

miss direct said:


> Almost 17,000 new cases in Turkey today (and that's only the ones they are open about, AND with comparatively low numbers of tests). Not looking good.



How much are vaccines being disributed/given in Turkey, miss direct ?


----------



## miss direct (Mar 17, 2021)

Apparently 11 million people have had the (sputnik) jab.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 17, 2021)

miss direct said:


> Apparently 11 million people have had the (sputnik) jab.



What's the distribution likely to be out there?  Apols if you don't know but I'm wondering whether the elderly will be prioritized all will it be a lot more political and economical then that?


----------



## miss direct (Mar 17, 2021)

Teaboy said:


> What's the distribution likely to be out there?  Apols if you don't know but I'm wondering whether the elderly will be prioritized all will it be a lot more political and economical then that?


I believe over 65s have been prioritised. They're talking about teachers (hasn't happened) and tourism workers (seems daft unless the wider population is also vaccinated). Highly suspect members of the ruling party have also been prioritised, judging by regular scenes  of mass gatherings like this:


----------



## Sunray (Mar 17, 2021)

Can the rest of Europe donate their unused AZ vaccines to the UK now we are going to have a shortfall in April?

If they aren't going to use them, I reckon lots in this country would.  If people were really worried let them take a single dose of the new NOACs that have replaced warfarin. 
Very effective at preventing blood clots, quite safe. Wear off after 24 hours. This would be a higher risk to you for other things, but you're not having a blood clot.


----------



## Idris2002 (Mar 17, 2021)

Just seen that the president of Tanzania has died of Covid. He was a keen denier and anti-vaccination person.


----------



## MJ100 (Mar 17, 2021)

Idris2002 said:


> Just seen that the president of Tanzania has died of Covid. He was a keen denier and anti-vaccination person.



Looks like a "heart condition" rather than Covid according to Sky. Couldn't possibly be Covid given that, as we all know, Covid has been magically banished from Tanzania through prayer, right? If only we'd thought of that in the west!


----------



## zahir (Mar 17, 2021)

elbows said:


> Its a messy subject because clearly there has been politics involved with the vaccination programme for months. But at the same time I fully support precautionary principals, and being seen to take adverse reactions seriously is actually part of a sensible system to balance public perceptions and actual risk.




This looks like a useful article on the reasons for alarm:




__





						Science | AAAS
					






					www.sciencemag.org


----------



## elbows (Mar 17, 2021)

Idris2002 said:


> Just seen that the president of Tanzania has died of Covid. He was a keen denier and anti-vaccination person.



He didnt learn anything from the president of Burundi's death last year then. ( Burundi president dies of illness suspected to be coronavirus )

Those countries shared more than just a border in this pandemic it seems.


----------



## William of Walworth (Mar 17, 2021)

Two articles --- both today, Wednesday 17th March -- from Pulse magazine, which is pretty good IMO.

First one was linked to upthread :





			
				Pulse headline said:
			
		

> *GPs dealing with fallout from suspension of AstraZeneca vaccine in Europe*



Second one has not -- I don't think -- been highlighted on Urban, and IMO is even better :




			
				Pulse headline said:
			
		

> *The A to Z of how to create a moral panic*



*ETA* : Bollocks! 
I'm just picking up that you appear to need to be a GMC-registered Doctor to read Pulse articles in full  -- disappointing, because they're both really good, and I was able to get at the full text of both at first 

Maybe somone else on here has an access-tip or two .... that would be great


----------



## stdP (Mar 18, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> Looks like a "heart condition" rather than Covid according to Sky. Couldn't possibly be Covid given that, as we all know, Covid has been magically banished from Tanzania through prayer, right? If only we'd thought of that in the west!



Not trying to be coy about it, but a friend of a cousin of my blacksmith's dog who works for an NGO out there said he died at least a week ago and definitely of covid, so this seems like the cover-up. I dare say a heart condition was the best thing the prayers could come up with.

Didn't want to blab until it was published but thinking about it, I should have got myself an easy win on the death pool thread.


----------



## elbows (Mar 18, 2021)

Part of the reason I made reference to the president of Burundi's death was that his too was 'described as a heart attack'. And shit attitudes towards the pandemic had come from the top there too. In that case suspicions were also raised because a rumour previously got out that his wife had received treatment abroad for Covid-19 in the period leading up to his sudden and unexpected death.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 18, 2021)

Older people more likely to catch Covid a second time
					

Study finds under-65s have about 80% protection from virus for at least six months but over-65s only 47%




					www.theguardian.com
				






> Prof Rosemary Boyton and Prof Daniel Altmann, from Imperial College London, say in a commentary in the journal that the findings are sobering because case reports have previously suggested that reinfection is extremely rare. In that light, “many will find the data reported … about protection through natural infection relatively alarming,” they write. “Only 80% protection from reinfection in general, decreasing to 47% in people aged 65 years and older are more concerning figures than offered by previous studies.”
> 
> They say the study reinforces the case for mass immunisation programmes – to include those who have contracted Covid in the past.
> 
> “These data are all confirmation, if it were needed, that for Sars-CoV-2 the hope of protective immunity through natural infections might not be within our reach and a global vaccination programme with high efficacy vaccines is the enduring solution,” they write.


----------



## prunus (Mar 18, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> Two articles --- both today, Wednesday 17th March -- from Pulse magazine, which is pretty good IMO.
> 
> First one was linked to upthread :
> 
> ...



You can read them by using a private browser window.


----------



## prunus (Mar 18, 2021)

.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 18, 2021)

If you search for it on Youtube, you get "Hancock says it's fine"  

I'm glad I get my info from elsewhere...


----------



## IC3D (Mar 18, 2021)

I fully support vaccination for vulnarable people and those in contact with them but I understand the reluctance to jab everyone. Perhaps I would be on board with that if air travel hadn't carried on throughout or track and trace was ever utilised.
Perhaps even using this period to roll out a  program of general health education instead we got deliveroo and the murderous eat out to spread covid. 
You look at the middle classes jogging every day and see the pandemic for what it is an attack on the workers. Get jabbed and carry on I don't agree with anti. Vax sentiment but entirely not surprised or remotely shocked by it.


----------



## eatmorecheese (Mar 18, 2021)

Magufuli was a bullying autocrat, up to his neck in political oppression. One of those rare instances where a covid denier in a position of responsibility copped the blowback.

Might sound heartless, but as someone who feels close to Tanzania I can only be glad about his demise.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 18, 2021)

EMA press conference.









						Regarder l'info tv en direct
					

Retrouvez le direct TV de France info. Toute l\'info en direct et les meilleures vidéos en streaming et replay. Actualité France et Monde, Interviews, Documentaires et Analyses.




					www.francetvinfo.fr


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 18, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> EMA press conference.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's live on both the BBC & Sky News channels.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 18, 2021)

she seems to be hedging her bets ...


----------



## planetgeli (Mar 18, 2021)

eatmorecheese said:


> Magufuli was a bullying autocrat, up to his neck in political oppression. One of those rare instances where a covid denier in a position of responsibility copped the blowback.
> 
> Might sound heartless, but as someone who feels close to Tanzania I can only be glad about his demise.



Couldn't agree more. 

This is particularly schadenfreude because of how Tanzania (him) denied Covid after a couple of months (the ultimate in shit politics) and his government have been denying he is even ill up until yesterday and had even started to arrest people for sharing stuff on the internet saying he was ill.









						Tanzania cops arrest man for reporting that president is ill
					

Tanzanian police have arrested a man for circulating posts suggesting that President John Magufuli is in ill health




					abcnews.go.com


----------



## eatmorecheese (Mar 18, 2021)

planetgeli said:


> Couldn't agree more.
> 
> This is particularly schadenfreude because of how Tanzania (him) denied Covid after a couple of months (the ultimate in shit politics) and his government have been denying he is even ill up until yesterday and had even started to arrest people for sharing stuff on the internet saying he was ill.
> 
> ...



No free journalism in TZ and anyone can become a victim of the pernicious Cybercrimes Act


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 18, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> she seems to be hedging her bets ...


Says it's safe and effective,

"Its benefits to protect from Covid-19, and the associated risks in terms of deaths and hospitalizations, outweigh all the risks."


----------



## spring-peeper (Mar 18, 2021)

Thank you 









						US to send 4m AstraZeneca vaccine doses to Mexico and Canada
					

Biden administration has come under pressure to share vaccine, which has been authorized in other countries but not yet in US




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 18, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Says it's safe and effective,
> 
> "Its benefits to protect from Covid-19, and the associated risks in terms of deaths and hospitalizations, outweigh all the risks."



but they'll tweak the side effects sheets and warn doctors to look out for it ...

I'm not sure that will be enough though


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 18, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> but they'll tweak the side effects sheets and warn doctors to look out for it ...
> 
> I'm not sure that will be enough though


There are anti vac movements in Europe ; France has a long history of it Holland and Germany too but it's not an issue in many EU states. However, the intentional or otherwise lets bash AZ may add to that. Biggest problem with vaccines in the EU  is that despite the supply problems many states are sitting on as many vaccines as they have administered. Here in Portugal medical records and IT systems are simply out of date , in some  areas they've been calling up dead people or those that have emigrated to be vaccinated.


----------



## elbows (Mar 18, 2021)

elbows said:


> Doing nothing is also bad for public confidence - one of the reasons authorities like to be seen as taking a cautious, precautionary approach is to maintain public confidence, not be accused of covering things up, not get in shit later if there is an issue.



And on that note whatever the bad consequences fo the recent scare, at least it created a situation where we had a UK press conference where they went into some detail and also warned people to seek help if they have a headache that lasts 4+ days after vaccination, bruising away from the vaccination site etc.


----------



## Supine (Mar 18, 2021)

Looks like most EU countries will start using AZ again very soon.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 18, 2021)

Supine said:


> Looks like most EU countries will start using AZ again very soon.



Monday for Portugal.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 19, 2021)

elbows said:


> also warned people to seek help if they have a headache that lasts 4+ days after vaccination



constant or intermittent ?


----------



## zahir (Mar 19, 2021)

Does anyone know more about this?


----------



## Supine (Mar 19, 2021)

Sounds like the US may have invoked the Defence Production Act for some materials. Not seen it in the news but there has been worries about key materials used and capacity. Some of them are only made in single factories worldwide and if based in US this could be the problem.


----------



## elbows (Mar 19, 2021)

Supine said:


> Sounds like the US may have invoked the Defence Production Act for some materials. Not seen it in the news but there has been worries about key materials used and capacity. Some of them are only made in single factories worldwide and if based in US this could be the problem.



It was another story from earlier in March that I missed at the time but then kept finding when I was looking for other stuff relating to the Serum Institute of India.  eg:









						Indian vaccine giant SII warns of supply hit from U.S. raw materials export ban
					

A temporary U.S. ban on exports of critical raw materials could limit the production of coronavirus vaccines by companies such as the Serum Institute of India (SII), its chief executive said in a World Bank panel discussion https://www.worldbank.org/en/events/2020/12/14/...




					www.reuters.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 19, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> constant or intermittent ?



I can only say what was said in the press conference yesterday, and point towards the official MHRA statement. I wish I could add more detail but I cannot, I dont have any.









						UK regulator confirms that people should continue to receive the COVID-19 vaccine AstraZeneca
					

Following suspensions by some countries of the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca over suspected blood clots, the MHRA confirms that the benefits of the vaccine in preventing COVID-19 far outweigh the risks. People should still go and get their COVID-19 vaccine when asked to do so.




					www.gov.uk
				






> While we continue to investigate these cases, as a precautionary measure we would advise anyone with a headache that lasts for more than 4 days after vaccination, or bruising beyond the site of vaccination after a few days, to seek medical attention.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 19, 2021)

With that info I might well have phoned 111 ... though it wasn't 4 *solid days* of headache.
4 weeks on I guess I'm home free ...


----------



## 2hats (Mar 19, 2021)

Supine said:


> Sounds like the US may have invoked the Defence Production Act for some materials. Not seen it in the news but there has been worries about key materials used and capacity. Some of them are only made in single factories worldwide and if based in US this could be the problem.


There are bottlenecks (eg single providers) in a number of the vaccines. Notably mRNA capping agents (one company in the US).


----------



## Supine (Mar 19, 2021)

2hats said:


> There are bottlenecks (eg single providers) in a number of the vaccines. Notably mRNA capping agents (one company in the US).



I know, I'm working in vaccine manufacturing at the moment. Just can't give any details I actually know about!


----------



## 2hats (Mar 19, 2021)

Needs no additional comment.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 19, 2021)

God love France.


The AZ vaccine is not really effective in older people.
We're only going to give the AZ vaccine to people over 55

That's a proper slow hand clap (or a gallic shrug) if ever there was.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 19, 2021)

They (the EU) surely can't complain about the UK having lots of vaccines, when we put what we get straight into people's arms rather than endlessly discussing the safety of them while the vaccines remain in the fridge.


----------



## yield (Mar 19, 2021)

Drugmakers Promise Investors They’ll Soon Hike Covid-19 Vaccine Prices
Pfizer, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson pledged affordable vaccines — but only as long as there’s a “pandemic.”
March 18 2021


> The U.S. pharmaceutical firms behind the approved coronavirus vaccines — Johnson & Johnson, Moderna, and Pfizer — have quietly touted plans to raise prices on coronavirus vaccines in the near future and to capitalize on the virus’s lasting presence.
> 
> While the companies have enjoyed a boost in goodwill from the rush to develop vaccines, drug industry executives have noted, the public is still sensitive to drug pricing and the reputational risk has, so far, curtailed their ability to reap large financial rewards.





> But that environment, they hope, will change once the pandemic ends: a date that drugmakers themselves reserve the right to declare. Pharmaceutical officials, speaking at recent conferences and on calls with investors, say they expect the virus will linger, morphing from a pandemic into a perennial endemic. And as Covid-19 mutations continue to spread and booster shots may be required on a regular basis, leaders from the three companies are enthusiastic about cashing in.


----------



## Cloo (Mar 19, 2021)

Looks like headlines (Times at least tomorrow) about concern on rising cases in mainland Europe, and how we've generally been a few weeks behind Europe, which crossed my mind when I heard about Italy last week. 

Has movement between countries slowed much more than last year at the moment or is still pretty high? If it's lower/people are having to quarantine on entering UK, then I can see us being better off when combined with vaccines, if not, don't know. Would seem to be an idea to close down travel right now as much as possible and actually, finally use our being an island?


----------



## NoXion (Mar 19, 2021)

Cloo said:


> Looks like headlines (Times at least tomorrow) about concern on rising cases in mainland Europe, and how we've generally been a few weeks behind Europe, which crossed my mind when I heard about Italy last week.
> 
> Has movement between countries slowed much more than last year at the moment or is still pretty high? If it's lower/people are having to quarantine on entering UK, then I can see us being better off when combined with vaccines, if not, don't know. Would seem to be an idea to close down travel right now as much as possible and actually, finally use our being an island?



Don't be silly. The profits of airports and airline companies are more important than human lives.


----------



## Cloo (Mar 19, 2021)

NoXion said:


> Don't be silly. The profits of airports and airline companies are more important than human lives.


In discussion suggesting more restrictions at border someone was going 'Nooo, it's evil because travel industry' and I'm a bit 'Uh, vs "everything else in the entire country" tho?'


----------



## Cloo (Mar 19, 2021)

Difference this time is that I think most of the country would support a border closure/more restrictions under current circumstances and I suspect fewer people were up for that last year.


----------



## elbows (Mar 20, 2021)

Cloo said:


> Looks like headlines (Times at least tomorrow) about concern on rising cases in mainland Europe, and how we've generally been a few weeks behind Europe, which crossed my mind when I heard about Italy last week.
> 
> Has movement between countries slowed much more than last year at the moment or is still pretty high? If it's lower/people are having to quarantine on entering UK, then I can see us being better off when combined with vaccines, if not, don't know. Would seem to be an idea to close down travel right now as much as possible and actually, finally use our being an island?



There were times where such timing comparisons were very useful, but I dont think that is currently the case. The graph below shows number of Covid-19 patients in hospital, and there is clearly less in common with timing etc at the moment.

The UK government went further in a number of ways with travel restrictions in recent months than they had previously. eg it is currently illegal to travel abroad for holidays, and they did a few things to act as deterrents. I doubt they intend to go much further unless something specific happens, eg with particular variants of concern. They may tweak things to respond to situations in various countries, and could go further than I presently imagine, but I dont see much sign of it.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 20, 2021)

Yes this doesn't really feel like we're a few weeks behind the continent this time around.  If anything they seem to have been a month behind us and failed to act in time.  I saw a very gloomy interview with a German scientist who basically its too late now and its all about to go to shit in Germany.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Mar 20, 2021)

It feels like there have been more news stories about anti-lockdown protests in other EU countries than in the UK. Is that a reflection of reality - and is it because we're just a nation of tutters and headshakers with no real motivation to go out and set fire to things?


----------



## elbows (Mar 20, 2021)

Buddy Bradley said:


> It feels like there have been more news stories about anti-lockdown protests in other EU countries than in the UK. Is that a reflection of reality - and is it because we're just a nation of tutters and headshakers with no real motivation to go out and set fire to things?



I'd have to get into detail on individual countries rather than lumping EU ones together, but yes up to this point anti-lockdown sentiments in the UK have not been expressed in that way in large numbers.

I'm not well read enough to go into detail but if I were throwing things into the mix off the top of my head then I'd be inclined to consider factors including how well funded, organised and supported the far right is here compared to some other countries, what alternative forms of disobedience we might be more likely to indulge in to let off steam, how lockdowns are policed, what peoples concepts of freedom actually consist of, how likely we are to listen to authority figures on medical issues.


----------



## elbows (Mar 20, 2021)

Oh and a proper analysis would also include what sort of financial support was available during the pandemic, the nature of jobs in the country, how well communicated various measures were, perceptions of risk from the virus, the way in which industrialists may flex their muscles, various aspects of history.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 20, 2021)

Teaboy said:


> Yes this doesn't really feel like we're a few weeks behind the continent this time around.  If anything they seem to have been a month behind us and failed to act in time.  I saw a very gloomy interview with a German scientist who basically its too late now and its all about to go to shit in Germany.


Certainly feels like some countries are ahead, including the UK but also Portugal and probably Spain, but only because we've had the shitstorm of the infectious variant while others may be yet to work through it. 

But elbows is right that there appear to be rather disconnected patterns now. Belgium had its last shtistorm last November and has just about kept a lid on things since then, for instance. 

But in a couple of months' time when this all probably dies down across Europe, I think the most striking aspect will be the relative uniformity of death rates. Whatever anybody has done, with only really a few exceptions, it's clear that it didn't work.


----------



## elbows (Mar 20, 2021)

littlebabyjesus said:


> But in a couple of months' time when this all probably dies down across Europe, I think the most striking aspect will be the relative uniformity of death rates. Whatever anybody has done, with only really a few exceptions, it's clear that it didn't work.



Claims that our actions didnt work should be viewed with great suspicion. 

Whenever we have acted quite strongly, the results have been seen extremely clearly several weeks later.

To claim our actions didnt work is to ignore the fact that the death toll and hospital situation would have been even worse if we had continued to do very little.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 20, 2021)

The last estimate I saw put the infection rate in England at the start of January at 23 per cent. That varied between around 50 per cent in badly hit areas like much of east London, which was already peaking for the second wave, and about 10 per cent in much of the SW, the least affected area.

 As that was still in the first half of the last peak, which was by far the biggest peak, the figure now will be over 30 per cent, perhaps pushing 40 per cent. And the UK's death numbers are high but not exceptionally so any more by European standards. By the time everything calms right down in Europe, our numbers may not be that far above the average. 

Assuming vaccination largely works, by the time things calm down, we may not be far off a 40 per cent infection rate across Europe. Being relatively conservative, it is probable that a third of the continent's population will have had it. That's comparable to the attack rate of Spanish flu 100 years ago.

I call that failure, and I'd be cautious about assuming that many of the mitigation measures made a huge difference.


----------



## elbows (Mar 20, 2021)

We had many failures and a bunch of successes. Your bias against admitting the merits of lockdowns, masks etc means I gave up on the prospect of you getting a clue being added to the successes column a long time ago.


----------



## elbows (Mar 20, 2021)

As for 1918, I dont place that much weight in estimates, data and understanding of the detail of that pandemic is not good at all. Hell I even read this in a SAGE modelling group paper from a few years ago:



> In the UK there were three waves associated with 1918-19 pandemic. The wave structure of this pandemic is not well understood. The final 1919 wave may have been a separate pandemic of a different virus to the 1918 waves.



Thats from https://assets.publishing.service.g...file/756738/SPI-M_modelling_summary_final.pdf

You should also note that clinical attack rate is not the same thing as infection attack rate. I havent read that much on the subject but my understanding is that clinical attack rate exludes asymptomatic cases, and that its serological attack rate/infection attack rate that we can measure by looking at peoples blood in hindsight. So if you read estimates of a potential 25% clinical attack rate, and the disease in question has a large proportion of asymptomatic cases, infection attack rate could easily be 50 or 60%.

Here is some Australian paper I randomly stumbled upon which has some of these attack rates general pandemic assumptions, along with highly sensible assumptions about the extent to which such things can be mitigated:



			https://www1.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/content/519F9392797E2DDCCA257D47001B9948/$File/Assumptions.pdf
		




> The IAR for previous pandemics ranged from 11-60%; the CAR ranged from 7-35%





> Modelling studies show that even with a 1918-severity pandemic, combinations of mitigation strategies can reduce the CAR by 50%


 
You preferred to believe after the first wave that it was not lockdown which brought the wave to a halt, but rather a natural phenomenon to do with the attack rate having been largely fulfilled. Now you are just revisiting the same faulty logic despite the existence of the second wave which pissed all over your shit theory last year. I on the other hand believe the virus only ended up in retreat because huge numbers of still susceptible individuals avoided the virus due to mitigation measures taken. Vaccines obviously change the picture going forwards.


----------



## elbows (Mar 20, 2021)

Also this issue which we have argued about in the past, could also be discussed in different terms. We could talk about what sort of maximum quantity of death we consider the virus had the potential to cause in this country. Because surely our very different beliefs about how much difference measures have made will have a large effect on that sharp end of the pandemic.

I'm very deliberately not going to do any maths now and not look back at various modelling estimates, SAGE papers etc. I'll keep it vaguer than that. eg based on what we've faced so far, I have absolutely no trouble imagining that this virus could have lead to a quarter of a million UK deaths if the response had been different. Nor would I fall out of my seat if I read reports that the total could have reached half a million or more.

And, crucially, whatever the number is that I waould start to consider being at the upper limit of plauisibility, one of the biggest reasons I'd be skeptical about our chances of having quite that much death would be that governments and individuals would have been forced to take things more seriously at some stage of that horror, behaviours would have changed, and some of the potential deaths would have been avoided.

Yet another way to test the exact nature of our stance and disagreements is the subject of how much less death we would have had in either wave if lockdowns and massive behavioural changes had come one, two or more weeks earlier than actually happened. A very depressing thing when looking back at UK response, all of the modelling estimates I've seen on this front suggest that our death stats would have been much lower if we'd been a bit earlier. And I've got no compelling reasons to doubt them that I can think of at this moment. The fact we were late every time means I do not consider our response to be a glorious success, but I've pretty consistently said that I'm not going to let all the terrible failures distort my sense of whether all the effort people have put in has made a real difference. Many lives have been saved by peoples sacrifices in terms of their behaviours, not meeting people, etc. This is one of the reasons I get a bit too angry with you when you choose to make your bizarre opinions on this stuff clear.


----------



## MJ100 (Mar 20, 2021)

The reality, of course, is that the effects of lockdowns AND the effects of limited natural immunity, seasonality, and other factors will have all combined to cause the reductions in cases and deaths we saw last summer. It's not either/or. Just because someone is pro lockdown doesn't make them 100% right, and just because someone is against lockdowns doesn't make them 100% wrong either. Nobody, NOBODY knows what the effects would have been if we hadn't locked down. We simply can't know how many would have died because it didn't happen. They can guess, but they can ONLY guess. Nobody knows for certain, no matter how much some people (Neil Ferguson and his predictions springs to mind) might wish they did. There are places in the world that did not lock down, or locked down far less strictly, or for far less time, and none of them have collapsed into anarchy with millions dead, so that's a fair indication that this would not have been an apocalyptic scenario, even if we had not put any measures in place. Maybe deaths would have been a few hundred higher, maybe a few hundred thousand. The point is, nobody knows, so it's all speculation based on what you want to believe. Anti lockdown= no more deaths from the virus if we'd done nothing than we have had with lockdowns. Pro lockdown= half a million, maybe more dead.

Almost certainly the reality lies somewhere in between. Where exactly, we just don't know, and we never will.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 20, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> Almost certainly the reality lies somewhere in between. Where exactly, we just don't know, and we never will.


I do.


----------



## Supine (Mar 20, 2021)

Saul Goodman said:


> I do.



Me too


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 20, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> The reality, of course, is that the effects of lockdowns AND the effects of limited natural immunity, seasonality, and other factors will have all combined to cause the reductions in cases and deaths we saw last summer. It's not either/or. Just because someone is pro lockdown doesn't make them 100% right, and just because someone is against lockdowns doesn't make them 100% wrong either. Nobody, NOBODY knows what the effects would have been if we hadn't locked down. We simply can't know how many would have died because it didn't happen. They can guess, but they can ONLY guess. Nobody knows for certain, no matter how much some people (Neil Ferguson and his predictions springs to mind) might wish they did. There are places in the world that did not lock down, or locked down far less strictly, or for far less time, and none of them have collapsed into anarchy with millions dead, so that's a fair indication that this would not have been an apocalyptic scenario, even if we had not put any measures in place. Maybe deaths would have been a few hundred higher, maybe a few hundred thousand. The point is, nobody knows, so it's all speculation based on what you want to believe. Anti lockdown= no more deaths from the virus if we'd done nothing than we have had with lockdowns. Pro lockdown= half a million, maybe more dead.
> 
> Almost certainly the reality lies somewhere in between. Where exactly, we just don't know, and we never will.




That's BS


----------



## MJ100 (Mar 21, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> That's BS



Of course it's not BS. Please, tell me exactly how many people would have died without lockdowns. You can't, can you? Nobody can. They can guess, estimate and predict (and people did, leading to wildly different potential figures being thrown around for different countries), but nobody knows. Anyone who claims to know is simply lying. It might have been half a million. It might have been about the same figure as we are currently at. Nobody knows, and that's not BS.


----------



## MJ100 (Mar 21, 2021)

Saul Goodman said:


> I do.



Can you tell me who's going to win the FA Cup this year too, then? Might want a tenner on it.


----------



## Supine (Mar 21, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> Of course it's not BS. Please, tell me exactly how many people would have died without lockdowns. You can't, can you? Nobody can. They can guess, estimate and predict (and people did, leading to wildly different potential figures being thrown around for different countries), but nobody knows. Anyone who claims to know is simply lying. It might have been half a million. It might have been about the same figure as we are currently at. Nobody knows, and that's not BS.



Are you a complete ducking idiot?


----------



## weltweit (Mar 21, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> Of course it's not BS. Please, tell me exactly how many people would have died without lockdowns. You can't, can you? Nobody can. They can guess, estimate and predict (and people did, leading to wildly different potential figures being thrown around for different countries), but nobody knows. Anyone who claims to know is simply lying. It might have been half a million. It might have been about the same figure as we are currently at. Nobody knows, and that's not BS.


What they can do, and the scientists behind SAGE etc are doing is building predictive models into which they can add the latest assumptions and query the model against different actions, various restrictions or a level of lockdown or no action etc. And I think it is fair to say that the more they learn about Covid-19 the more useful their models will become and probably more accurate also.

eta: and also background testing which has been going on also builds pictures of how the virus spreads.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 21, 2021)

Seems fair enough to me, to say we don't know what the numbers would have been without any lockdowns. But it also seems fair enough to say they would have been significantly higher.


----------



## MJ100 (Mar 21, 2021)

Supine said:


> Are you a complete ducking idiot?



No, are you? Seems perfectly simple to me. We cannot tell what the death toll would have been. All we know is that it would not have been lower than the current death toll.


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 21, 2021)

"To minimize the impact of incomplete data and incorrect assumptions, modellers typically carry out hundreds of separate runs, with the input parameters tweaked slightly each time. This ‘sensitivity analysis’ tries to prevent model outputs swinging wildly when a single input changes. And to avoid too much reliance on one model, Ferguson says, the UK government took advice from a number of modelling groups, including teams at Imperial and the LSHTM (see, for example, ref. 7). “We all reached similar conclusions,” he says.

*Updating the simulation*
Media reports have suggested that an update to the Imperial team’s model in early March was a critical factor in jolting the UK government into changing its policy on the pandemic. The researchers initially estimated that 15% of hospital cases would need to be treated in an intensive-care unit (ICU), but then updated that to 30%, a figure used in the first public release of their work on 16 March. That model showed the UK health service, with just over 4,000 ICU beds, would be overwhelmed."









						Special report: The simulations driving the world’s response to COVID-19
					

How epidemiologists rushed to model the coronavirus pandemic.




					www.nature.com
				




MJ100

Worrh reading.


----------



## MJ100 (Mar 21, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Seems fair enough to me, to say we don't know what the numbers would have been without any lockdowns. But it also seems fair enough to say they would have been significantly higher.



They probably would have been a lot higher, but of course they might not have been. We'll never know, that's all I'm saying. I've never once said lockdowns were not necessary from the position we found ourselves in, though I fervently believe we should not have found ourselves in that position because lockdowns should be an absolute last resort, like cutting off a limb to stop the spread of gangrene. Yes, it will save the patient, but it will fuck them up for the rest of their life with massive complications. Far better to avoid getting gangrene in the first place, or treat it with antibiotics, or literally anything except amputation. The one thing we do know, from looking at other places like Brazil, parts of the USA, Mexico, Japan, Sweden and others, is that if we had not locked down, society would not have collapsed into Mad Max-style anarchy, because it didn't in those countries, so why should it here?


----------



## Supine (Mar 21, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> No, are you? Seems perfectly simple to me. We cannot tell what the death toll would have been. All we know is that it would not have been lower than the current death toll.



Do you think you are being clever? Rates were increasing massively and then started going down. It's not fucking rocket science.


----------



## MJ100 (Mar 21, 2021)

Supine said:


> Do you think you are being clever? Rates were increasing massively and then started going down. It's not fucking rocket science.



For about the 20th time, I have NEVER said that lockdowns were not necessary. I literally just posted this same thing about five minutes ago. Nor have I said they aren't effective, again about five minutes ago. Read what I wrote before you try acting high and mighty like I'm some kind of covid denier. Literally all I was saying is that you cannot know what the precise death toll would have been. You can guess, you can estimate, you can predict, you can model. You cannot KNOW.

Given that Neil Ferguson, whose model predicted 500,000 deaths if nothing was done, also said, to quote the article linked by Sugar Kane a little earlier;

'And the British response, Ferguson said on 25 March, makes him “reasonably confident” that total deaths in the United Kingdom will be held below 20,000.'

It goes to show that just because a scientist makes a prediction, does not make him or her automatically correct.


----------



## Supine (Mar 21, 2021)

Nobody is arguing that you can know how many people would have...


----------



## teuchter (Mar 21, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> I've never once said lockdowns were not necessary from the position we found ourselves in, though I fervently believe we should not have found ourselves in that position because lockdowns should be an absolute last resort, like cutting off a limb to stop the spread of gangrene.



You keep saying this but are yet to offer an alternative. For the period of time before vaccines become available, there are no other tools available, other than lockdowns of some form. I expect you will say we just should have had "restrictions" that don't amount to full lockdown, but whatever they would be, you'd get the same people complaining about their freedoms being restricted. Also, if you are saying we could have had restrictions short of full lockdown, applied much earlier in the process, thereby avoiding lengthy full lockdowns then you are agreeing with most people here. I don't actually get what point you are trying to make.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 21, 2021)

Supine said:


> Nobody is arguing that you can know how many people would have...







MJ100 said:


> Almost certainly the reality lies somewhere in between. Where exactly, we just don't know, and we never will.





Saul Goodman said:


> I do.





Supine said:


> Me too


----------



## LDC (Mar 21, 2021)

I'm just baffled to what you are suggesting (if anything) MJ100 or the exact point you're trying to make. We're on about 145,000+ dead in the UK with a year of restrictions (and it's not over yet) so modelling that thought 500,000 was possible with no restrictions does seem like a possibility. Yes, nobody can know _for absolute certain _but I just don't see where constantly saying that leaves us tbh. And you keep mentioning different countries, all of which have significant differences to the UK in terms of the seeding and spread of the pandemic, which again, leaves me thinking what the point you're trying to make is, unless it's just a vague and not very helpful 'but we just don't know for sure' thing?


----------



## SpineyNorman (Mar 21, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> No, are you? Seems perfectly simple to me. We cannot tell what the death toll would have been. All we know is that it would not have been lower than the current death toll.


I would find it extremely difficult to take anyone who thinks they would have been the same or even similar to what we actually had seriously. 

Like Saul Goodman I know exactly how many it would have been. I'm not telling you but as everyone on here can verify, I am always right and never lie. So there.


----------



## SpineyNorman (Mar 21, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I'm just baffled to what you are suggesting (if anything) MJ100 or the exact point you're trying to make. We're on about 145,000+ dead in the UK with a year of restrictions (and it's not over yet) so modelling that thought 500,000 was possible with no restrictions does seem like a possibility. Yes, nobody can know _for absolute certain _but I just don't see where constantly saying that leaves us tbh. And you keep mentioning different countries, all of which have significant differences to the UK in terms of the seeding and spread of the pandemic, which again, leaves me thinking what the point you're trying to make is, unless it's just a vague and not very helpful 'but we just don't know for sure' thing?



This poster seems to spend a lot more time explaining what he's NOT saying than actually saying anything so they can't really complain when people try to fill in the gaps.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 21, 2021)

No, I think he's right. _Nobody knows exactly_ how many individual viruses will infect me if I catch coronavirus. Isolating myself is just a draconian action so I'm not going to bother


----------



## MJ100 (Mar 21, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I'm just baffled to what you are suggesting (if anything) MJ100 or the exact point you're trying to make. We're on about 145,000+ dead in the UK with a year of restrictions (and it's not over yet) so modelling that thought 500,000 was possible with no restrictions does seem like a possibility. Yes, nobody can know _for absolute certain _but I just don't see where constantly saying that leaves us tbh. And you keep mentioning different countries, all of which have significant differences to the UK in terms of the seeding and spread of the pandemic, which again, leaves me thinking what the point you're trying to make is, unless it's just a vague and not very helpful 'but we just don't know for sure' thing?




I was trying to make a point regarding the argument between littlebabyjesus and elbows, where the former was claiming lockdowns didn't work and the latter was claiming they were the sole reason the virus went into retreat over the summer. Both of those positions are of course bullshit. I was just trying to say the reality lay in the middle somewhere, then a bunch of people started implying I was saying that we would have seen less Covid deaths without lockdowns, which I have never said, so I had to reply against their nonsense. That's all.


----------



## MJ100 (Mar 21, 2021)

teuchter said:


> You keep saying this but are yet to offer an alternative. For the period of time before vaccines become available, there are no other tools available, other than lockdowns of some form. I expect you will say we just should have had "restrictions" that don't amount to full lockdown, but whatever they would be, you'd get the same people complaining about their freedoms being restricted. Also, if you are saying we could have had restrictions short of full lockdown, applied much earlier in the process, thereby avoiding lengthy full lockdowns then you are agreeing with most people here. I don't actually get what point you are trying to make.



There are plenty of alternatives, I though people here were big on complaining how the government didn't implement any of them- early border closures, proper quarantine, test and trace, all that stuff. So yes, I am agreeing with most people here. The only point I was initially trying to make was related to the argument between elbows and littlebabyjesus in respect to the fact that we can never know the precise number of how many Covid deaths lockdowns prevented.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 21, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> I was trying to make a point regarding the argument between littlebabyjesus and elbows, where the former was claiming lockdowns didn't work and the latter was claiming they were the sole reason the virus went into retreat over the summer.


As far as I can see that's a misrepresentation of both of their positions.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 21, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> I was trying to make a point regarding the argument between littlebabyjesus and elbows, where the former was claiming lockdowns didn't work and the latter was claiming they were the sole reason the virus went into retreat over the summer. Both of those positions are of course bullshit.



Yes I can't imagine either of them saying that - could you point to their original posts?


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 21, 2021)

Numbers back on the rise here in Ireland. 9% increase in the past week.


----------



## elbows (Mar 21, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Yes I can't imagine either of them saying that - could you point to their original posts?



Its a crude version of our positions. It does capture a fair chunk of my position, which is better described as:

Number of people getting infected in first wave was brought down by changes in behaviour: far less mixing between people, various things closed, attempts to get a partial grip on hospital-acquired infections and care home spread, getting people to isolate when they have symptoms and/or test positive, getting people to wear masks and maintain distance and ventilate indoor spaces and wash their hands. When these things were done, infections, hospitalisations and deaths peaked and fell away. When we relaxed, when some old behaviours and mixing between people returned, the number of infections rose and we had a second wave. When restrictions were imposed in November the numbers flattened and started to go down, but then we relaxed quickly and things shot up again, in combination with a more transmissible variant. Then we had more closures and beehavioural changes in January, which brought things down to the current level.

Thats a great big chunk of the picture. Its all about opportunities the virus has to spread, so things like how many people have already caught the virus and have immunity are a factor, just like they are in standard epidemic modelling where the number of susceptible individuals at each moment in time is a key parameter. Seasonal factors are another variable, albeit a limited one as we saw in countries that had second waves during summer. And some of the seasonal factors are expected to involve behavioural changes at any rate, eg more likely to meet people outdoors than indoors, more likely to allow more airflow indoors.

Reducing all of this to the word lockdown does not do justice to the explanation, but its not a billion miles off the mark when trying to be brief in a way I seldom manage.

I wont attempt to describe littlebabyjesuses position in full, not least because they have at least been pretty consistent with it for much of the pandemic, and there are plenty of arguments between us in the past that can be reviewed to see that its the same old clash, I dont think there is anything new this time around other than some other people joining in. Instead I focus on the bit that really gets to me, which I'd characterise it as a stance where they prefer to find other explanations for the waves peaking when they did, no matter how many times we see waves peaking a few weeks after behaviours changed in the ways I described. They look mostly for other explanations as to why the virus suddenly found it hard to keep finding greater numbers of people to infect all the time. They overemphasise and misjudge since aspects roles in affecting the extent to which the virus ran out of ever increasing numbers of susceptible people. They choose to believe its because not enough people remained clinically susceptible, as opposed to the fucking obvious reality that vast numbers of people were actually not catching the virus at those stages because they were not going to school or the pub or to work, not hugging their relatives, not getting too close to people, not being idiots about reducing risk via mask wearing etc. Drives me absolutely nuts when the basics of how people catch or avoid viruses, the key factor in epidemic waves, is denied to serve some agenda, ignorance of the most grotesque and dangerous form. Its not rocket science, these are pretty basic concepts that children wouldnt struggle to understand. Which is not to say the number of clinically susceptible individuals hasnt changed or isnt a factor at all, it has reduced over time, as a result of people catching it, and more recently as a result of vaccination. But what they are trying to suggest is that we got far closer to 'herd immunity' type levels of population infection than is actually the case. We've come nowhere close, so its not that the number of susceptible people fell to levels that could peak a wave and send it into decline on its own, the waves peaked when they did because people were taken out of harms way by other means, by lockdown etc. A bunch of people being immune post-infection does help, its part f the equation, but its only been a modest factor so far, we've had to use a bunch of non-pharmaceutical interventions for prolonged periods to avoid even higher peaks, and to even get a few months here and there without runaway levels of infection. Now vaccinations can carry a big chunk of that burden.


----------



## MJ100 (Mar 21, 2021)

Elbows is right, it's a simplification of their positions, but without quoting large chunks of their replies to each other it was the best I could do. Mainly I responded to this quote by Elbows that seemed to summarise their positions nicely;

_You _[littlebabjesus]_ preferred to believe after the first wave that it was not lockdown which brought the wave to a halt, but rather a natural phenomenon to do with the attack rate having been largely fulfilled. Now you are just revisiting the same faulty logic despite the existence of the second wave which pissed all over your shit theory last year. I [elbows] on the other hand believe the virus only ended up in retreat because huge numbers of still susceptible individuals avoided the virus due to mitigation measures taken. _

Then adding my own opinion that the reality lay somewhere in the middle. Of course lockdowns helped around the world including in the UK, but so did other things, most of which elbows just touched on in his latest post- seasonality, possibly local herd immunity in certain places (Delhi, New York, possibly London) though there still hasn't been any definitive evidence on that from what I've seen, border restrictions, pre-existing natural immunity, the rate of infection through things that lockdown cannot control (nosocomial, intra-household etc), ventilation, and so on.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 21, 2021)

And those "other things" by some coincidence all happened to come together at the same time, producing the sharp peak we see in the graphs? It's not plausible to me; lockdown type restrictions start suddenly at a certain point in time whereas all these other things are gradual effects that would cause a rounded peak, not the cliff edge that we see.


----------



## elbows (Mar 21, 2021)

Some of the detail is also illustrated by what stage our agrument reached after the first wave was in the past. I went as far as I could to partially accommodate some aspects of littlebabyjesus's stance at the time. I acknowledged limitations to our understanding about immune systems and levels of population susceptibility. I admitted that I could not completely rule out that some of what he was calling 'dark immunological matter' or words to that effect could be part of the mix for all I knew. This stuff means I could not be sure what the natural attack rate of this virus would be, I could not say that typical values such as 80% of the population catching it in an unmitigated pandemic, which were being used for public health planning purposes, would turn out to be spot on.

But there was no way I would run too far with those unknowns to the extent that I could express confidence that that stuff had reached a level after the first wave that would prevent subsequent waves. And indeed we had a 2nd wave, which I thought rather proved the point. But apparently not, apparently it is still possible for anti-lockdown stances to involve making the same flawed mental gymnastic moves as he did after the first wave. I would think that even those who were tempted to place too much faith in such a stance, such a hope, after the first wave would not be fooled again.

Plus even if I had unusual ideas about how immunity works and how many people were susceptible, such ideas should be dampened by the obvious reality of quite how many millions of people have not had the opportunity to catch the virus in any wave so far. Certainly lots of people were exposed, care homes were not protected well at all in the first wave. Not everybody followed the guidelines and the laws. But dont let that distract from the fact that really huge numbers of people, especially older people, took things real seriously and really minimised the number of moments that they were in harms way. It therefore stands to reason that within this large group remained very many susceptible people, some of whom would be expected to die in a subsequent wave if we got rid of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Or at least that was the reality until recently, now vaccination programmes should change that picture significantly, vaccines have now reached lots of these people before the virus could. Even in the vaccination era there will still be some people who are susceptible even after vaccination, but thats a picture of susceptibility that will take much further time to judge. And the vaccination era includes complications such as how long immunity lasts and whether we will see the rise of escape mutants that start sending things back in the other direction, back to a picture of many millions of susceptible people that the likes of littlebabyjesus want to misjudge in order to sustain some bogus sense of reality that is compatible with their ideological beliefs about freedom or whatever shit it is that causes them to be such an idiot in this pandemic.


----------



## MJ100 (Mar 21, 2021)

teuchter said:


> And those "other things" by some coincidence all happened to come together at the same time, producing the sharp peak we see in the graphs? It's not plausible to me; lockdown type restrictions start suddenly at a certain point in time whereas all these other things are gradual effects that would cause a rounded peak, not the cliff edge that we see.



No, all those other things happened all the way through the pandemic and are still happening now. Lockdowns caused the sharp peak, but those other things will have affected the shape of the graph all the way through, even if it's only in a subtle way- especially in the summer, otherwise, with lockdown restrictions easing from late May (in the UK), we would surely have seen a similar rise in infections once again in early summer. As it was, we didn't see a rise until September, when we started to get the imports of cases from people coming back from holidays which accounted for 40% (I think I read on the BBC) of new infections, plus schools and unis going back, and then the spread of the Kent varient. That surely either means that many of the things that were restricted earlier on but were eased over summer (retail, restaurants, contact sport, gyms, social mixing) weren't major drivers of infections anyway, or that other factors besides lockdown were helping to keep the cases and deaths low over the summer, seasonality being the obvious one.


----------



## elbows (Mar 21, 2021)

teuchter said:


> And those "other things" by some coincidence all happened to come together at the same time, producing the sharp peak we see in the graphs? It's not plausible to me; lockdown type restrictions start suddenly at a certain point in time whereas all these other things are gradual effects that would cause a rounded peak, not the cliff edge that we see.



Most of the aspects of curve shape we'd notice are actually the same or similar under both scenarios. The nature of exponential growth and decay is the main driving force behind the particluar shapes we see. In the models the number of still-susceptible people is key, and the results are broadly the same no matter what the reasons for the decrease of available victims in the path of this virus.  

So when we slam on the brakes really quite hard, the results are similar in shape to what we'd see with a natural peak, but the peak is lower.

To get a much longer, gradual curve, like the original doomed 'pressing down on the peak, pushing it off into summer' UK government 'plan a' approach pre-March 16th 2020, you'd press the brakes less hard, enough to lower the number of people in harms way at each moment, but leaving enough gaping holes in the shield that the virus still has a lot of people to work with, and that given long enough a large percentage of the population would have been exposed eventually. Maths didnt add up with this virus for them to do that without busting hospitals, so we didnt really get to see it. Even if the maths had been different I dont know if it would have been possible, seems more likely that number of infections would have reached the sort of explosive tipping point at some stage that wuld have spiralled things out of control and been met with firmer brakes. Not sure if there are examples in history of that sort of thing being pulled off either.

Another way you can get a much broader curve with more gradual trajectories is if there is a large amount of regional timing variation. Or per-setting variations in timing eg large care home outbreaks or hospital outbreaks a while after the main community peak in cases. 1st wave demonstrates some of this more than our 2nd.

What happened on the geraphs as a result of November measures is useful to look at too. Again I think it tells an obvious story of brakes not being applied hard enough or long enough, leading to a resumption in upwards terajectory after a period of decline. Obviously this is a distinct feature in UK charts, very noticeable and unlike what we are used to seeing on charts of natural epidemic waves. But there is the role of the new variant in there too, which people will be able to lean on if they have some reason to deny the validity of what I've attributed that shape to.


----------



## elbows (Mar 21, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> No, all those other things happened all the way through the pandemic and are still happening now. Lockdowns caused the sharp peak, but those other things will have affected the shape of the graph all the way through, even if it's only in a subtle way- especially in the summer, otherwise, with lockdown restrictions easing from late May (in the UK), we would surely have seen a similar rise in infections once again in early summer. As it was, we didn't see a rise until September, when we started to get the imports of cases from people coming back from holidays which accounted for 40% (I think I read on the BBC) of new infections, plus schools and unis going back, and then the spread of the Kent varient. That surely either means that many of the things that were restricted earlier on but were eased over summer (retail, restaurants, contact sport, gyms, social mixing) weren't major drivers of infections anyway, or that other factors besides lockdown were helping to keep the cases and deaths low over the summer, seasonality being the obvious one.



Dont overestimate seasonal effects, dont underestimate how long it takes for the virus to really take off again if the brakes have been on quite hard for a long time before the relaxation of measures begins. The nature of exponential growth means that if levels of the virus have been pushed down to very low levels, it takes time for the base to grow back up to the extent that the next doubling of infections means scary big numbers.

Restrictions were lifted quite slowly, in phases. Schools remained closed. Large numbers of people did not return to normal levels of mixing etc. To the extent that I was able to recommend people not spend June 2020 waiting anxiously for the 2nd wave to emerge imminently. I then got away with stretching that into July.

Plus cases actually started increasing again in August, not September, but as I said it takes a bit of time for levels of infection to really get going again (just like it was possible for authorities to miss much of the early part of the first wave until it became substantial).

And we have other countries to look at. The relatively modest wiggle room the the summer season offered was on display in various states of the USA for example, a pretty vivid demonstration of what happens if you dont apply the brakes hard enough and long enough, and try to rely on seasonal cliches to carry too much of the burden. In some states they never pushed cases low enough in first lockdown, so they rebounded easily. The sort of things that happend in different places at different times over summer were even enough to give littlebabyjesus pause for thought at the time. It seems they feel emboldened to talk absolute shit about the dynamics at work in this pandemic only when we are at a stage like the current one, where number of infections etc has fallen away. I may be an annoying, tedious bore at times but at least my stance is a stance for all seasons, I've not set myself up to have to slink away when the going gets tough.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 21, 2021)

elbows said:


> Another way you can get a much broader curve with more gradual trajectories is if there is a large amount of regional timing variation.



That's the main reason I would have assumed there would be a more rounded curve with a "natural" peak because we know things were/are progressing at different timings in different parts of the uk, but the lockdown was applied universally at the same point in time.


----------



## elbows (Mar 22, 2021)

teuchter said:


> That's the main reason I would have assumed there would be a more rounded curve with a "natural" peak because we know things were/are progressing at different timings in different parts of the uk, but the lockdown was applied universally at the same point in time.



Although the government initially painted a picture where London was some weeks ahead of the rest of the country, the differences on that side of thing were actually more modest. The virus had been well seeded all over the place, some worse than other for sure, but probably closer than you might expect. Likewise in terms of natural, unmitigated waves of other viruses like flu, in the modern interconnected era the timing variations around the country seem likely to have reduced.

When it comes to the down side of the curve, although the lockdown timing was the same across the country, ability to adhere to all the behaviours that reduce transmission varied. I know we've discussed this in the past when it comes to things like how sharp curves were in the London for first wave compared to some other regions. We end up discussing things like how many people can work from home in London and the South East, and the effects of reduced tourism, percentage of the local economy that was involved with hospitality & entertainment etc.

Plus you know if there is one thing I like to bore on about, its hospital-acquired infections and the role that such infections have in causing explosive growth of hospital and death figures. And potential feedback loops between community and hospital infections. I'm fairly confient that a proportion of the slower decline seen in curves in some regions were due to it taking much longer to get more of a grip on hospital spread in some places. Just look at the state of the number of Covid019 patients in my local hospital during the first wave for one of the most dramatic examples of this! That hospital outbreak had a modest effect on regional and national statistics but when zoomed in on its a very different pattern to the one people think of as typical for the time.


----------



## MJ100 (Mar 22, 2021)

elbows said:


> Dont overestimate seasonal effects, dont underestimate how long it takes for the virus to really take off again if the brakes have been on quite hard for a long time before the relaxation of measures begins.




That's a valid point of course, but then the caveat must also apply- don't potentially underestimate seasonal effects or overestimate how long it takes for the virus to take off. We saw how quickly things could rise last spring, after all, and that was from a base of zero active cases, which we've never been at since then. Our first case was reported on January 23rd, and exactly two months later we were in lockdown. 

I'm not an epidemiologist but I imagine it must be hard to determine exactly how much effect was down to any individual change in behaviour or particular closure/restriction. Another problem of course is that testing was so much more limited in the first wave- how can we know what the true shape of the graph should have looked like last spring? Is there any way to determine that or would it just be guesstimating?


----------



## elbows (Mar 22, 2021)

The whole point of banging on about exponential growth is that its a form of growth where the increase is proportional to the amount thats already there. So the growth doesnt look all that impressive to start with, until some point is reached where the doubling is suddenly making quite large numbers into very large numbers, and we actually notice.

What looks like sudden tipping points to us are built on what came in earlier periods, often unnoticed.

We missed cases and deaths, likely quite a bit earlier than many people realise. News stories about the first few deaths could only come about once we were actually looking at a far broader range of patients, well beyond the stupid narrow travel-history based criteria that was in use for far too long. I sounded an alarm here in February 2020 when Italy suddenly noticed some deaths when previously they hadnt even been detecting many cases. It was a strong indicator that they had missed most of the initial phase of their outbreak, and by the time they noticed deaths the number of infections would have been really quite large, far into the danger zone. So within a few weeks they were in huge trouble.

Just look at this sort of story regarding an early UK victim that went unnoticed at the time:









						COVID-19: Daughter of first UK victim questions when coronavirus arrived in the country
					

Peter Attwood died on the 30 January 2020 but his cause of death wasn't officially discovered until seven months later.




					news.sky.com
				






> Peter Attwood, 84, died on the 30 January 2020, but his cause of death wasn't officially discovered until seven months later.
> 
> It was the day after, on 31 January, that Public Health England confirmed what were then thought to be the first UK *COVID-19*cases in York, two Chinese nationals.
> 
> ...



The virus was repeatedly introduced to the UK over quite a long period and had quite a lot of time to grow before it reached the levels where it became obvious to everyone that it was spreading widely here. Lots of people who should have known better about this stuff did not, they failed in their observational and tracking duties. Even when they nticed the tip of the iceberg and knew it was only the tip, there was a reluctance to properly estimate the size of the hidden part of the iceberg. It only looked like it suddenly exploded out of nowhere because of the failure to track it in the earlier phases. And plenty of chains of transmission end up as dead ends, so the virus needs quite a lot of opportunities to thrive in order to really get going, to get beyond a basic foothold. Lots of new seeding events due to half-term holidays abroad probably ramped things up considerably towards the end of the initial 'not noticing the true scale of the problem' phase, and without those repeated introductions of the virus into the country things may have simmered more slowly for a lot longer. And/or hospitals are a massive virus spread multiplier and things kick off once the virus has been in the right place at the right time and starts to run rampant in those healthcare settings.

Most aspects involve some guesstimating. I tended to concentrate on the sharp end of the pandemic, the deaths, in order to focus on something closer to a measurable picture via data, as opposed to cases which were so woefully undercounted then. I'm sure estimates exist for cases, and curves can be reconstructed from that, but its not something I do myself.  I look at all cause daily deaths to get a sense of how many deaths were likely missed during the bulk of the first wave, but even this method does not allow me to get a view of how many deaths were missed in the early phase. Because below a certain quantity of daily deaths, nothing significantly stands out from the usual number of deaths, so isnt spotted. This is also true when it comes to detecting new pandemics in the first place - unless the disease in question has unusual symptoms, unless a country does a lot of proper routine diagnostic testing of patients at all times, or unless something else has tipped authorities off to be on alert, perceptions of disease tend to be based on lots and lots of classic assumptions. And there are certainly a lot of normal, routine assumptions made when it comes to respiratory diseases. So authorities dont notice anything unusual is happening until an outbreaks hits a vulnerable population at such scale that unusual numbers of people present themselves to hospitals etc. That happened in China, and it still happened again later in other places despite the eventual warning from China. And I cannot say exactly how long the virus was simmering before anyone noticed in China. This is also part of the reason why I cannot automatically disregard stories about the possibility of earlier undetected outbreaks elsewhere, before Wuhan. And if we dont notice till it really explodes, then no wonder it looks like it arrived out of nowhere with incredible speed, we completely missed so much of the earlier part of the story.


----------



## elbows (Mar 22, 2021)

Also see this story I've posted before, which Fergus Walsh persued because of his own likely timeline of infection. The article predates the confirmation of the case I mentioned in previous post.









						Fergus Walsh: Was coronavirus here earlier than we thought?
					

Could Covid-19 have been here earlier than we thought? The BBC’s medical correspondent investigates.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Some of the challenges of going back looking for signs of earlier, originally missed cases, are apparent towards the end of the article. There will be problems of bias and oversimplified thinking in either direction, and there will be problems finding evidence in samples because the number of people actually affected by Covid-19 in the earlier period is probably really quite small. And when its small our generalised forms of surveillance wont have had much to get its teeth into, there wont be signals that rose clearly above the standard picture, things remain obscured by the background noise of everyday infections, hospitalisations and deaths. We dont even have proper surveillance of other human coronaviruses that have been with us for many years! I hope one consequence of this pandemic is that much changes on these fronts, the system wont be left to run on complacency, faulty established wisdom, oversimplified assumptions and guesswork.


----------



## elbows (Mar 22, 2021)

And just in case anyone is still unaware of why I use such strong language when describing the likely role of hospital transmissions:



> The paper by Public Health England and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine found the R-number for Covid-19 specifically in hospitals could have been as high as 14 – meaning each infected staff member or patient was infecting 14 other people.











						Spread of coronavirus within hospitals prolonged first wave fuelling a fifth of admissions
					

The R-rate for Covid-19 in hospitals could have been as high as 14, a new report reveals




					www.independent.co.uk
				




This also means that when I go on about all the different things that actually fall under the oversimplified banner of 'lockdown and behavioural changes lead to decline of a wave', people avoiding hospitals is very much on the list. I know that avoiding hospitals has other health consequences that authorities rightly worry about, but its a factor, its part of how people dodged personal Covid-19 danger during periods of high disease incidence, despite remaining clinically susceptible.

Trying to bring this back to a fitting angle for this worldwide thread, if I were trying to study why some countries in the developing world dont seem to have seen the same sort of impact from this virus, I would certainly want to study not just the age and weight of their population, but the nature of their healthcare systems, size of hospitals, proportion of population that are in hospital at a particular moment in time for other reasons, etc. Likewise care homes, or lack of. And for that matter pubs, schools, etc, and how well frequented and ventilated those places are. And the nature of contact mixing patterns between different parts of society, different age groups etc.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 22, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> Numbers back on the rise here in Ireland. 9% increase in the past week.



Fingers crossed that it's only a blip, you are on fairly low numbers, so that 9% respects around 50 cases, which could be down to one or two local outbreaks, that hopefully the authorities will jump on & suppress with contact tracing & testing.

For example, here in Worthing [population 110,000) we almost reached 800 cases in one week in January! We dropped back down to around 50, then about 6 weeks ago we hit a massive 63% increase, which was traced back to a house party, and after a week or so, cases were declining again.

We got back down to about 60, and a couple of weeks ago we had another big increase of 50% due to almost 30 staff & kids at a local school & nursery testing positive, a week later the figures started to drop again, two weeks later and we are down to 42, a drop of -40.8% in the last 7-days, reported yesterday.

So, I wouldn't be concerned with that increase yet, if it continues over a few weeks, that would be worrying.


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 22, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Fingers crossed that it's only a blip, you are on fairly low numbers, so that 9% respects around 50 cases, which could be down to one or two local outbreaks, that hopefully the authorities will jump on & suppress with contact tracing & testing.
> 
> For example, here in Worthing [population 110,000) we almost reached 800 cases in one week in January! We dropped back down to around 50, then about 6 weeks ago we hit a massive 63% increase, which was traced back to a house party, and after a week or so, cases were declining again.
> 
> ...




The thing is the daily numbers had stalled already. And numbers in hospitals have increased. So a jump from 550 a day to 750 is concerning.

At least that's what the state epidemiologists are saying. 
People are increasingly flouting the rules. And with primary schools now fully open to all classes since last week I cant see us getting through the easter holidays without another spike in numbers.

But fingers crossed that people hold it together for the next few weeks.  We are only now vaccinating the over 70s.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 22, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> The thing is the daily numbers had stalled already. And numbers in hospitals have increased. So a jump from 550 a day to 750 is concerning.



That would be a big jump, but I was commenting on the 9% you mentioned, and looking at worldometers, which shows around 50 extra new cases in just over a week.









						Ireland COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Ireland Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Aladdin (Mar 22, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> That would be a big jump, but I was commenting on the 9% you mentioned, and looking at worldometers, which shows around 50 extra new cases in just over a week.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The epidemiologists on the news yesterday over here were saying figures on the weekend were up significantly. Normally they are down somewhat on a weekend. They also said numbers of referrals by gps for testing over the past week have jumped up. 
They seem to be expecting a spike this week in numbers.





__





						Redirect Notice
					





					www.google.com


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 22, 2021)

Some minor but basic problems in Lombardy

*



			Vaccination campaign in Lombardy is turning into a “disaster”
		
Click to expand...

*


> The vaccination campaign against covid-19 in Lombardy, the Italian region most affected by the pandemic, is turning into a “disaster” due to a system of defective registration, admitted today local politicians.
> 
> Lombardy was the epicenter of the outbreak 13 months ago and remains today the region with the highest number of cases.
> 
> ...


----------



## Flavour (Mar 23, 2021)

Yeah it's totally fucked up and a lot of people are also just not turning up cos they don't want the AZ vaccine (thanks Ursula you fucking cunt) and supposedly there are lists you can add yourself to whereby if somebody doesn't turn up for their vaccine then people on the "reserve list" get a call like "can you come _right now" _to avoid vaccine shots being thrown out but... 

how the fuck does one get themself added to these reserve lists? in pretty much every italian region that I know of it is impossible to get yourself to such lists, not using "normal methods" (i.e. signing up online). it's all very mysterious and shitty as with so many things relating to the bizarre mechanics of italian bureaucracy.


----------



## weltweit (Mar 23, 2021)

Lunchtime news snippet is saying that the virus that causes the common cold can help boot the covid-19 virus out of cells. 

Good to know, but how does one make this happen I wonder?


----------



## elbows (Mar 23, 2021)

weltweit said:


> Lunchtime news snippet is saying that the virus that causes the common cold can help boot the covid-19 virus out of cells.
> 
> Good to know, but how does one make this happen I wonder?



It may be one of the reasons some places around the world did better at avoiding the bulk of certain waves, or why the timing of their waves was different.









						Coronavirus: How the common cold can boot out Covid
					

It looks like the viruses that cause colds wins in the battle to infect our cells.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




At the start of the article they should have said 'a virus that causes the common cold', not 'the virus that causes the common cold'. They are clearer about this later in the story.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 23, 2021)

Oh goody.  Can't wait for all the _the common cold will have killed the virus if we hadn't locked down_ comments.


----------



## elbows (Mar 23, 2021)

Teaboy said:


> Oh goody.  Can't wait for all the _the common cold will have killed the virus if we hadn't locked down_ comments.



Should be fairly easy to piss on much of such sentiments. eg We kept schools open for a period that included a chunk of winter, allowing other viruses to spread there, but the effect was not enough to prevent them eventually having to close schools.

Its possible that rhinovirus bought them some time/wiggle room when schools first reopened last year, but if the effect is relatively shortlived then its a shield that cannot last, the rhinovirus infections will go in waves and once number of cases falls away, other measures are required.

I highly doubt our rhinovirus surveillance is good enough to have a true picture of it in Covid times, but here is something anyway, for England:


From https://assets.publishing.service.g...-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W11.pdf


----------



## zahir (Mar 23, 2021)

Some discussion of lab accidents - maybe one for elbows


----------



## elbows (Mar 23, 2021)

Yeah, I dont really have anything new to add though. My stance when this has been discussed before is that its really unwise to rule it out as a theory, but good luck getting enough info to stop the trail going cold on that one. And I usually suppliment that stuff by boring on about the how the return of H1N1 influenza to the human scene in 1977 was likely due to human activity such as a lab accident or some other ill-judged use of samples of that earlier flu virus.

In addition to complications involving potential cover-ups, politics and diplomacy when trying to judge any lab role in the current pandemic, there are reasons why such possibilities become hot potatoes within virus-related professions. eg unease towards or defence of certain gain-of-function experiments.


----------



## DaveCinzano (Mar 23, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Nanobots? 5g transmitters are likely blood vessel sized


EXCLUSIVE:

New pictures reveal Gates Corp micronauts embedding 5g transmitter inside an early COVID vaccine test subject


----------



## Flavour (Mar 24, 2021)

merkel backtracking on easter lockdown in germany, jesus









						COVID: Angela Merkel backtracks on Easter lockdown after uproar | DW | 24.03.2021
					

In a turnabout move, German Chancellor Angela Merkel told state premiers in a video call that there would not be a strict lockdown over Easter after all. This follows a day of criticism and confusion in Germany.




					www.dw.com


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 24, 2021)

Flavour said:


> merkel backtracking on easter lockdown in germany, jesus
> 
> 
> 
> ...


We are in a gradual reopening here but the bars ( terrace only) don’t open till Easter Monday and there’s a restriction on numbers at table ( max 4) and no travel between counties over Easter .


----------



## DaveCinzano (Mar 24, 2021)

Flavour said:


> merkel backtracking on easter lockdown in germany, jesus
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Now there's an Ostern of events


----------



## Flavour (Mar 24, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> We are in a gradual reopening here but the bars ( terrace only) don’t open till Easter Monday and there’s a restriction on numbers at table ( max 4) and no travel between counties over Easter .



What are counties in the Portuguese context? do you mean the regions?


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 24, 2021)

Flavour said:


> What are counties in the Portuguese context? do you mean the regions?


Yes they break down into 18 of them.  During the confinement, you couldn't move at the weekends after midnight, apart from work, etc,  between municipal councils. Traditionally Easter here is full of people from Lisbon and the North visiting families in the south . Sometimes emigrants in France or Switzerland as well.


----------



## elbows (Mar 24, 2021)

Flavour said:


> merkel backtracking on easter lockdown in germany, jesus



Seems like a long time ago that Germany and Merkel won much praise for their initial pandemic response and public communication.


----------



## gentlegreen (Mar 24, 2021)

> *Italian police find ‘millions’ of vaccines in factory raid amid fears AstraZeneca jabs being hidden*
> 
> Italian newspaper La Stampa reported that as many as 29 million doses of the vaccine were found at the plant, those this number could not be verified.
> That would represent almost double the 16 million doses so far delivered to the European Union by the drug company and which are now the subject of heated negotiations between Brussels and the UK.












						Italian police find ‘millions’ of vaccines in factory raid
					

Police say the raids took place over the weekend




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Saul Goodman (Mar 24, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> Italian police find ‘millions’ of vaccines in factory raid
> 
> 
> Police say the raids took place over the weekend
> ...


You missed out this rather important bit.


> The doses were likely to have been manufactured at the Halix plant in Leiden, in the Netherlands, Italian media reports said. Halix is still awaiting approval by the European Medicines Authority but approval could come as soon as this week.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 24, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> Italian police find ‘millions’ of vaccines in factory raid
> 
> 
> Police say the raids took place over the weekend
> ...



Hang on a minute...


> The doses were likely to have been manufactured at the Halix plant in Leiden, in the Netherlands, Italian media reports said. Halix is still awaiting approval by the European Medicines Authority but approval could come as soon as this week.



The EU moans about a lack of supplies, yet haven't even approved this factory, whilst also sitting on millions of unused doses in addition to this lot, you couldn't make it up.


----------



## miss direct (Mar 24, 2021)

Turkey is back up to around 30,000 cases a day (and that's just the ones they declare). There will be more restrictions during Ramadan. 

Not sure I'll ever make it back there


----------



## Supine (Mar 24, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Hang on a minute...
> 
> 
> The EU moans about a lack of supplies, yet haven't even approved this factory, whilst also sitting on millions of unused doses in addition to this lot, you couldn't make it up.



It's a factory run by a company called Halix. Approval is due end march / beginning April.

These unused vaccines may be from that site awaiting approval or they may be counterfeit. I know of three fake covid vaccine factories that have been shutdown already so who knows.


----------



## Supine (Mar 24, 2021)

More on the az stash









						With a Police Raid and the Threat of Export Curbs on Vaccines, the E.U. Plays Tough
					

The bloc is tightening export rules in a bid to speed up its disappointing Covid inoculation campaign and stem political criticism.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Sunray (Mar 25, 2021)

130 million vaccinations in the USA,  impressive.

I see the EU is winding back on the ban.  I also read today the EU is the worlds largest supplier of vaccines. So WTF are they doing?  I also read there are some 55 plants due to come on stream across the EU making all the approved vaccines.  The EU rollout, while slow to start will be finished at a similar time to the UK.  I was looking for that article but read too many recently.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 25, 2021)

Sunray said:


> 130 million vaccinations in the USA,  impressive.
> 
> I see the EU is winding back on the ban.  I also read today the EU is the worlds largest supplier of vaccines. So WTF are they doing?  I also read there are some 55 plants due to come on stream across the EU making all the approved vaccines.  The EU rollout, while slow to start will be finished at a similar time to the UK.  I was looking for that article but read too many recently.


Where did you get this information about 55 plants due to come on stream?


----------



## Supine (Mar 25, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Where did you get this information about 55 plants due to come on stream?



Not sure about 55 but here is a pretty picture


----------



## Sunray (Mar 25, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Where did you get this information about 55 plants due to come on stream?



I read an article talking about the EU and the last sentence at the end said 55 plants.  I'm too busy to go wading through my history but they have a lot of capacity as shown by the previous post.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 25, 2021)

Sunray said:


> I read an article talking about the EU and the last sentence at the end said 55 plants.  I'm too busy to go wading through my history but they have a lot of capacity as shown by the previous post.


Ta. 55 plants involved in different contributions from production to fill and finish might be possible this year but surely not 55 dedicated to production.


----------



## Teaboy (Mar 25, 2021)

Its fairly obvious what's going on in the EU.  They were dozing along with their vaccine programme and they've been caught out by a third wave and now their scatter gunning blame everywhere and anywhere but at themselves.  So far so normal for politicians.

They will clearly have enough supplies for a very effective vaccine program (how much they shat the bed over the confidence in AZ is unknown at this stage).  Its just now they are heading into a very worrying looking third wave and they've been embarrassed by what has happened in the UK with the vaccine program.  Even if they had millions and millions of doses of AZ available its hard to see it stopping the third wave, that ship seems to have sailed.


----------



## zahir (Mar 25, 2021)

Legal ruling in Quebec





Translation:


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 26, 2021)

Can someone explain this please . Number of new cases in Portugal are down but the r rate is rising . 
Also what’s needed to get the r rate down ?


----------



## elbows (Mar 29, 2021)

Awful but much less dishonest revision to Mexicos death figure:









						Covid-19: Mexico revises coronavirus death toll up by 60%
					

The revised figures indicate Mexico has the second highest number of Covid-related deaths in the world.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 29, 2021)

Canada is expected to get millions of unwanted AstraZeneca vaccine doses from the US this week - but regulators have just called for a "pause" in its use for under-55s because of the blood clot issue.



			https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/astrazeneca-under-55-1.5968128


----------



## Badgers (Mar 30, 2021)

Covid-19: CDC head warns of 'impending doom' in US
					

Cases and deaths are rising as US officials warned the struggle to end the pandemic is not over.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## kebabking (Mar 30, 2021)

Perfectly normal. Everything is fine.


----------



## BigMoaner (Mar 30, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Covid-19: CDC head warns of 'impending doom' in US
> 
> 
> Cases and deaths are rising as US officials warned the struggle to end the pandemic is not over.
> ...


genuienly frightening.


----------



## elbows (Mar 30, 2021)

elbows said:


> Yeah, I dont really have anything new to add though. My stance when this has been discussed before is that its really unwise to rule it out as a theory, but good luck getting enough info to stop the trail going cold on that one. And I usually suppliment that stuff by boring on about the how the return of H1N1 influenza to the human scene in 1977 was likely due to human activity such as a lab accident or some other ill-judged use of samples of that earlier flu virus.
> 
> In addition to complications involving potential cover-ups, politics and diplomacy when trying to judge any lab role in the current pandemic, there are reasons why such possibilities become hot potatoes within virus-related professions. eg unease towards or defence of certain gain-of-function experiments.



WHO managed to say things about this that I can probably live with.



> *The head of the World Health Organization (WHO) says further investigation is needed to conclusively rule out a theory that Covid-19 emerged from a laboratory in China. *
> 
> Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Tuesday that although a laboratory leak is the least likely cause, more extensive research is needed.





> Dr Tedros said the team had difficulty accessing raw data and called for "more timely and comprehensive data sharing" in the future.





> But a report by WHO and Chinese experts released on Tuesday and seen by AFP news agency, said the lab leak explanation was highly unlikely and the virus had probably jumped from bats to humans via another intermediary animal.
> 
> However the theory "requires further investigation, potential with additional missions involving specialist experts," Dr Tedros said.
> 
> "Let me say clearly that as far as WHO is concerned, all hypothesis remain on the table," he added.





> Also on Tuesday, WHO investigation team leader, Peter Ben Embarek, said his team had found no evidence that any laboratories in Wuhan were involved in the outbreak.
> 
> He added that his team had felt under political pressure, including from outside China but said he was never pressed to remove anything from the team's final report.
> 
> Dr Embarak added that it was "perfectly possible" that cases were circulating in the Wuhan area in October or November 2019.











						Coronavirus: More work needed to rule out China lab leak theory says WHO
					

All possible causes of the pandemic remain on the table, says the WHO, though lab leak least likely.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## miss direct (Mar 30, 2021)

Heading towards 40,000 cases a day in Turkey now. Back on weekend curfews. A year ago I was there looking at the UK in horror as things seemed much "better" there. Now it's the other way round.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 30, 2021)

If anyone wants to sift through the WHO report -




__





						Virus origin / Origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus
					

“Laboratory diagnostics for novel coronavirus”




					www.who.int


----------



## cupid_stunt (Mar 31, 2021)

Macron, somewhat late, has finally announced another national lockdown, including schools & non-essential shops closing, and a 7pm curfew.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 31, 2021)

Will you be getting your cat/dog a covid-19 vaccine?








						Russia registers world’s first Covid-19 vaccine for cats & dogs as makers of Sputnik V warn pets & farm animals could spread virus
					

A pioneering new formula that protects animals against coronavirus has been registered in Russia days after one of the country’s top scientists warned that the deadly pathogen could soon begin spreading through homes and farms.




					www.rt.com


----------



## elbows (Mar 31, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Macron, somewhat late, has finally announced another national lockdown, including schools & non-essential shops closing, and a 7pm curfew.



Yes, terrible situation, lots of stupid decisions in the past.



> For one thing, President Macron has opened up a much clearer target now for the opposition - they can argue that his decision back in January to overrule the scientists and not launch a third lockdown was a blunder.
> 
> He was warned then that the so-called British variant would sweep all before it by the end of March - and lo and behold that is what has happened. And now he is eating his hat.
> 
> For his enemies, it is the result of Macron's hubris - the insufferable self-belief that makes him think he knows better than the doctors.











						Covid: France schools to close under third lockdown
					

French schools will close for at least three weeks as part of new national restrictions.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Apr 1, 2021)

And my usual graph of Covid-19 patients in hospital to go with that. I've also included some graphs of Covid-19 intensive care patients for France and Germany.


----------



## elbows (Apr 1, 2021)

And a couple of the charts from the dashboard for Belgium at Epistat – COVID-19 Belgian Dashboard


----------



## gentlegreen (Apr 1, 2021)

Meanwhile in the USA ...



> Future shipments of Johnson & Johnson’s coronavirus vaccine will be delayed after one of its subcontractors ruined 15 million doses at a Baltimore factory over the last several weeks, according to two U.S. officials with direct knowledge of the situation.
> 
> Johnson & Johnson had hired the company, Emergent BioSolutions, to manufacture the active ingredient, or drug substance, of the vaccine at its plant in West Baltimore. Workers at the facility mistakenly mixed ingredients for the J&J vaccine with those of another manufacturer’s coronavirus shot, according to the two officials.












						White House knew more than a week ago of Johnson & Johnson contractor vaccine-supply problems
					

Workers at Emergent BioSolutions ruined 15 million doses by mixing ingredients from two Covid-19 vaccines together.




					www.politico.com


----------



## planetgeli (Apr 2, 2021)

Sachin Tendulkar is in hospital. This probably means very little to most people here, believe me it means everything to about 1 billion Indians.









						Sachin Tendulkar: India cricket legend in hospital with Covid-19
					

Sachin Tendulkar says he is in hospital "as a matter of abundant precaution under medical advice".



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## MrSki (Apr 3, 2021)




----------



## Boudicca (Apr 4, 2021)

MrSki said:


>



I do wonder if there will be a big surge in immigration applications to NZ.  It's certainly something I would be considering if I was younger.


----------



## IC3D (Apr 4, 2021)

Urgh smug mode engaged.


----------



## Orang Utan (Apr 4, 2021)

Boudicca said:


> I do wonder if there will be a big surge in immigration applications to NZ.  It's certainly something I would be considering if I was younger.


I’m getting a passport when I can afford it


----------



## Badgers (Apr 5, 2021)




----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 5, 2021)

Badgers said:


>




Nowt to worry about there, no vaccine is 100% effective in stopping all infections, the important thing is that they are highly effective for most people, and reduces the chance of severe cases for those that do get infected.



> "We are sad to hear this. Sputnik V is 91.6% effective against infection and 100% effective against severe cases. If the infection is indeed confirmed and occurs, the vaccination ensures quick recovery without severe symptoms. We wish you a quick recovery!," read a message on Sputnik V's official Twitter account, citing rates published February in the medical journal The Lancet.


----------



## gentlegreen (Apr 5, 2021)

I wish they'd been clearer about the way vaccines work.



> "I'm already isolated, complying with the current protocol and following the instructions of my personal doctor," he said. "I have contacted the people I met in the last 48 hours to assess whether they constitute close contact."



He is *now*, but I wonder how he was behaving before he actually managed to get infected - it suggests maybe quite a large exposure ...


----------



## IC3D (Apr 5, 2021)

I wonder if this is why no one's ever created a vaccine for the common cold, because without the whole pandemic it would be unmarketable as it is basiclly a leaky, partially effective vaccine that unlike other ones doesn't prevent infection spread and also has grim side effects


----------



## Monkeygrinder's Organ (Apr 5, 2021)

IC3D said:


> I wonder if this is why no one's ever created a vaccine for the common cold, because without the whole pandemic it would be unmarketable as it is basiclly a leaky, partially effective vaccine that unlike other ones doesn't prevent infection spread and also has grim side effects



Iirc there are quite a few different viruses that cause what we'd think of as a cold. So it would be a lot of vaccines to tackle a pretty minor illness.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 5, 2021)

IC3D said:


> I wonder if this is why no one's ever created a vaccine for the common cold, because without the whole pandemic it would be unmarketable *as it is basiclly a leaky, partially effective vaccine that unlike other ones doesn't prevent infection spread and also has grim side effects*



Assuming you're talking about Coronavirus vaccines there**, I think you're *hugely* over-egging the criticism pudding. By miles. Just saying! 

**(and not some notional common-cold vaccine  )


----------



## IC3D (Apr 5, 2021)

Monkeygrinder's Organ said:


> Iirc there are quite a few different viruses that cause what we'd think of as a cold. So it would be a lot of vaccines to tackle a pretty minor illness.


About a quarter of common colds are coronavirus I think. They also may have very unmild when we initially got them. I'm sure scientists somewhere so work on curing colds though as it would make pharma good coin


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 5, 2021)

IC3D said:


> I wonder if this is why no one's ever created a vaccine for the common cold, because without the whole pandemic it would be unmarketable as it is basiclly a leaky, partially effective vaccine that unlike other ones doesn't prevent infection spread and also has grim side effects



Flu vaccines are a hell of a lot less effective than the covid ones, which also do reduce infection spread according to the most recent data. 

And, as Monkeygrinder's Organ points out, lots of different viruses cause what we label as the 'common cold'.



> The common cold is an infection of the upper respiratory tract which can be caused by many different viruses. The most commonly implicated is a rhinovirus (30–80%), a type of picornavirus with 99 known serotypes.[30] Other commonly implicated viruses include human coronaviruses (≈ 15%),[31][32] influenza viruses (10–15%),[33][34][35] adenoviruses (5%),[33] human respiratory syncytial virus (orthopneumovirus), enteroviruses other than rhinoviruses, human parainfluenza viruses, and human metapneumovirus.[36] Frequently more than one virus is present.[37] In total, more than 200 viral types are associated with colds.[4]











						Common cold - Wikipedia
					






					en.wikipedia.org


----------



## IC3D (Apr 5, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> Assuming you're talking about Coronavirus vaccines there**, I think you're *hugely* over-egging the criticism pudding. By miles. Just saying!
> 
> **(and not some notional common-cold vaccine  )


Maybe  but some people still think this completely imunises like other vaccines


----------



## gentlegreen (Apr 5, 2021)

Do *any *vaccines actually prevent *all *infection of cells and internal replication before the immune response deals with them ?

The problem with these vaccines is they're under incredibly close scrutiny.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 5, 2021)

IC3D said:
			
		

> I wonder if this is why no one's ever created a vaccine for the common cold, because without the whole pandemic it would be unmarketable as it is basiclly a leaky, partially effective vaccine that unlike other ones doesn't prevent infection spread and also has grim side effects





cupid_stunt said:


> Flu vaccines are a hell of a lot less effective* than the covid ones, which also do reduce infection spread according to the most recent data*.



I was going to say something about that as well -- the data (as it develops) does *not* seem to support the idea that Covid vaccines fail to stop virus-spread.

Others will know where the good links are for this   .... but I have seen some, in other threads


----------



## IC3D (Apr 5, 2021)

The flu shot is less effective as it targets a group of virus's cupid_stunt with the hope of getting lucky, and it is effective in reducing death and I fully encourage vulnerable people to have it if they want


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 5, 2021)

IC3D said:


> The flu shot is less effective as *it targets a group of virus's* cupid_stunt with the hope of getting lucky, and it is effective in reducing death and I fully encourage vulnerable people to have it if they want



More like it targets different influenza strains, hence it tends to be regularly updated to target the main strain(s) in a given year, which looks like will be the same with covid vaccines, depending on what new coronavirus strains pop-up.


----------



## elbows (Apr 5, 2021)

Its complicated and I only know a few bits and bobs.

For example with flu vaccines the performance in older people against H3N2 flu ended up being very poor over many years, and although this was not kept totally secret the authorities certainly didnt draw peoples attention to it until they had an alternative vaccine for older people ready for widespread use a few years back.

There are probably several reasons for it poor performance, but its certainly not as simple as failing to match the strain each year, and the poor results were a problem because it tends to be the H3N2 strain which causes the biggest healthcare burden, lots of deaths etc.

One possible reason for the poor performance is that aspects of our immune system are strongly affected by our personal disease and vaccination history. For example there are theories regarding influenza involving our priming history - eg that our bodies always end up mounting the best response against the type of influenza that we were first exposed to early in our lives. Since H3N2 did not arrive until the end of the 1960's, people born before that time will have been exposed to a different type first (H2N2 and before that H1N1) and dont end up mounting such a strong response against H3N2. There are also some studies which might suggest that repeated vaccination every year ends up diminishing the effectiveness, but this is one of those possibilities that can be hard to talk about properly because it can lead to defeatism and putting people off, and much uncertainty in the science remains.

Anyway thats influenza and I dont know if any similar things will be seen with the coronavirus vaccine - probably plenty of differences but we might still expect the true picture to end up quite complicated.

Certainly when it comes to this pandemic virus there are signs that the authorities are nervous that too many people cannot help but think of vaccines and protection in rather binary ways. There was deliberate messaging about this from Whitty etc in a press conference not long ago, I may transcribe the relevant bits if I get a chance.


----------



## elbows (Apr 5, 2021)

Once or twice I've made noises about certain elements within society having a pandemic weakness for dinner parties and fancy restaurants, now a little of that world has been exposed in France!









						Covid: Paris police probe 'secret luxury dinner parties'
					

French authorities investigate after an undercover video claims to show secret luxury dining.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Apr 5, 2021)

I dont think I will get a chance to transcribe the Whitty stuff so here is an article with a few quotes instead. It was only about a week ago:









						COVID-19: 'We don't know how strong our fortifications are against new wave', says Boris Johnson
					

The prime minister acknowledges a "big day" as lockdown rules are eased - but warns the country "must proceed with caution".




					news.sky.com
				






> Professor Chris Whitty, England's chief medical officer, said the UK had a "kind of wall of vaccination that will get stronger" as more people begin to receive their second doses over the coming weeks.
> 
> But he added: "It is not a complete wall, it is a kind of leaky wall. Therefore, there will always be some people who either have chosen not to be vaccinated, or where the vaccine has had much less effect.





> "If we get a small surge, there will be cases of people who have been vaccinated who will have severe disease, and there will be cases of people who are not vaccinated, a much higher proportion, who will get severe disease, and some of those will go on to die.
> 
> "If you get a very big wave, that would obviously lead to a significant impact.





> "The thing to understand with vaccines is they provide increasing levels of protection as we go through," he said.
> 
> "The first vaccine provides a high degree of protection, the second vaccine for the same person provides greater protection - but there's still some vulnerability.
> 
> "Then actually having people around someone who has been vaccinated who are themselves vaccinated, provides a further level of protection.





> "And then the key thing is keeping the rates right down, which makes it very unlikely that someone who comes in - even if they haven't been vaccinated and certainly if they have - will actually have COVID and be able to pass it on.
> 
> "What we're trying to do is get to the point where all of those protections are in place. We are not yet at that stage. We are getting there steadily."



I've always considered it almost inevitable that at some stage we will hear stories of peoples shock and disbelief that a vaccinated friend or relative still died of Covid-19. The media may be wary of reporting loudly on such things in case it partially undermines efforts to get everyone to be vaccinated. And if we can avoid high levels of transmission in society then this will obviously help keep the number of sad stories from ballooning into view. 

I still expect mass vaccination to really transform the picture, just not to the extent that binary thinking about protection would imply.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 6, 2021)

Things are getting grim in India, at the start of March they were reporting an average of just over 15k new cases a day, that's now over 84k, following record of over 100k being recorded on Sunday. 









						COVID-19 cases surge in India: Warning over variants and social distancing as cases exceed 100,000 a day
					

Doctors in the country warn of a crisis as politicians continue to campaign ahead of elections.




					news.sky.com


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 6, 2021)

And this jumped out at me, from near the end of the above depressing article :




			
				Sky said:
			
		

> At the same time, one of the largest congregation of pilgrims have started converging for the month long Maha Kumbh in Haridwar, Uttarakhand from 1 April.
> 
> According to the organisers,* this once-in-12-years festival is estimated to attract about 150 million pilgrims over the next 30 days*.



I've realised that that's the actual Kumbh Mela, the biggest festival in the world  .... had lost track that was going to happen this year!! Ulp ....
I always also assumed it would be in Ahmedabad/Allahabad again ... I'd never really heard of Haridwar ... 

There's a zillion links about the Kumbh, Wiki's one is the best that's quick to find. 
Insanely complex history, with all sorts of different cycles of when and where the event occurs.

Before I thought of Wiki though, I saw a caption under one of the Times of India videos that said (in passing) that this year, pilgrims/attendees will be Covid-tested.

All 150 million of them though? I have severe doubts!


----------



## teuchter (Apr 6, 2021)

Boudicca said:


> I do wonder if there will be a big surge in immigration applications to NZ.  It's certainly something I would be considering if I was younger.


Why?


----------



## Orang Utan (Apr 6, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Why?


Cos it’s nice and the quality of life is better. They have parrots and penguins


----------



## teuchter (Apr 6, 2021)

Orang Utan said:


> Cos it’s nice and the quality of life is better. They have parrots and penguins


Why would there be a surge though - what's changed that makes it better?


----------



## Orang Utan (Apr 6, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Why would there be a surge though - what's changed that makes it better?


Their response to the pandemic and the world’s continued circling the drain


----------



## nagapie (Apr 6, 2021)

Orang Utan said:


> Cos it’s nice and the quality of life is better. They have parrots and penguins


It's too far away from your family and friends.


----------



## Orang Utan (Apr 6, 2021)

nagapie said:


> It's too far away from your family and friends.


I know  still getting a passport as insurance though


----------



## nagapie (Apr 6, 2021)

Orang Utan said:


> I know  still getting a passport as insurance though


Oh yeah, you can never have too many passports.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 6, 2021)

My brother and missus brother hired a luxury campervan to tour and explore all over New Zealand (both Islands) not just once, but *twice* 
(second time September 2019  )

Let's just say that from what they told us and showed us, I'm ultra-jealous.

And not just of the van they hired


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 7, 2021)

I watched some heart-breaking news stories from Brazil yesterday.  Up to 4000 deaths a day now.   An utterly appalling mix of chronic wealth and health inequality and a callous disgusting human being (and the elitist system around him) who couldn't care less about people dying and suffering.  Mostly it seems because they are poor people.

There has been talk of covid becoming a disease of poor people.  I would say it already is and pretty much always has been.


----------



## Johnny Doe (Apr 7, 2021)

Teaboy said:


> There has been talk of covid becoming a disease of poor people.  I would say it already is and pretty much always has been.



Yup, there's plenty of videos doing the rounds of globally famous, very rich DJs, travelling to earn fortunes at events staffed by impoverished locals, the former putting the latter at risk


----------



## BlanketAddict (Apr 7, 2021)

America has quite rapidly and comprehensively rejected any notion of a vaccine passport (as reported on BBC website). 

I wonder what this will do with regards to other countries stances. I can't see many countries wanting to ban American travel/tourists etc but plenty of countries seem to be moving in the passport direction. 

Could get a bit tricky.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 7, 2021)

BlanketAddict said:


> America has quite rapidly and comprehensively rejected any notion of a vaccine passport (as reported on BBC website).
> 
> I wonder what this will do with regards to other countries stances. I can't see many countries wanting to ban American travel/tourists etc but plenty of countries seem to be moving in the passport direction.
> 
> Could get a bit tricky.



Yes but I got the impression that announcement was very much for their domestic audience.  I very strongly suspect that when it comes to people wanting to visit their country they may take a different view.


----------



## BlanketAddict (Apr 7, 2021)

Teaboy said:


> Yes but I got the impression that announcement was very much for their domestic audience.  I very strongly suspect that when it comes to people wanting to visit their country they may take a different view.



You might be right. 

The tricky bit may be insisting on documentation for visitors but then trying to convince other countries to let in your undocumented travellers!


----------



## stdP (Apr 7, 2021)

Doesn't the US already require fingerprinting for all foreign nationals entering the country (even if it's only transit for a connecting flight)? It doesn't seem much of a stretch from that to impose vaccination requirements as well.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 7, 2021)

"are you or have you ever been ...?"


----------



## not-bono-ever (Apr 8, 2021)




----------



## Hollis (Apr 8, 2021)

Apologies if this is old news.. but someone just forwarded me this tool... stick it on the log scale, and the similarity in patterns across countries stands out.. 

COVID-19 Data Explorer


----------



## mx wcfc (Apr 11, 2021)

Interesting graphic...  if it works


----------



## BigMoaner (Apr 11, 2021)

mx wcfc said:


> Interesting graphic...  if it works



That was creepy/sad. Mental what the world has gone though


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 12, 2021)

Canada is outpacing U.S. for new COVID-19 cases per capita
					

Daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Canada have skyrocketed amid the third wave of the pandemic and have now outpaced the United States per capita.




					www.ctvnews.ca


----------



## Badgers (Apr 12, 2021)

Coronavirus: 'Double mutant' Covid variant found in India
					

This comes as India reported 47,262 cases and 275 deaths on Wednesday, its highest tally this year.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## elbows (Apr 12, 2021)

I was previously talking about Chile on the UK thread because it had come up in the context of a UK press conference and questions about our future. But I'll put it here from now on.

We now have this from the BBC live updates page, 11:23 entry https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56713639 :



> Sir David King, former chief scientific adviser to the government, has raised concerns about a third wave of infections in Chile.
> He told Sky News: "Chile is a country where the rate of vaccination amongst the population was third highest in the world - they were ahead of us in terms of the number of people who have had the vaccine - and they're suddenly now into a third wave.
> "They now have 7,600 cases a day and the total number of people in Chile now who have Covid-19 is over a million.
> "So what has happened in Chile is very, very surprising - a high percentage of people have been vaccinated, but here's a variant of the disease coming through the country."



However new variants are not the only possible explanation. There is also the question of how effective the Sinovac vaccine is, and a Chinese official recently added to that possibility before backtracking.









						Chinese official says local vaccines 'don't have high protection rates'
					

However he later appeared to backtrack, saying his comments were a "complete misunderstanding".



					www.bbc.co.uk
				












						‘The right path’ - Chile defends Sinovac use amid fresh efficacy questions
					

Chilean authorities on Sunday backed the country's widespread use of the COVID-19 vaccine manufactured by Chinese firm Sinovac after China's top disease official appeared to make conflicting statements about its efficacy.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## elbows (Apr 12, 2021)

I'd also suggest that a lot of coverage about Chile has giant holes in its analysis.

This FT article doesnt suffer from as many blindspots:





__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com
				






> “We weren’t expecting an impact [of vaccines on infections] until June or even July,” said Miguel O’Ryan, a professor at the University of Chile’s medicine faculty who sits on the Chilean science ministry’s coronavirus vaccine advisory committee. “What we are seeing now is simply — and tragically — what happened in all of the northern hemisphere, with a few exceptions, as autumn started [six months ago].”





> Jarbas Barbosa, the PAHO's assistant director, agrees that vaccination programmes will have a delayed effect, because as much as 70-80 per cent of the population needs to be immunised to prevent the virus from spreading. “We really don't know yet what is the level that will provide . . . herd immunity,” he said, adding that it was therefore “crucial to keep all the measures [in place] that can prevent transmission”.





> First has been the spread of new, more virulent strains of the virus, particularly from Brazil. Second, Chileans have been moving about more after returning from summer holidays in March. And third, she said there had been less strict adherence to social distancing, partly because people felt safer owing to the vaccination programme — but also because of lockdown fatigue.





> In addition, the Sinovac vaccine is only fully effective after the second dose, unlike the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine that is much more effective after just one. Although about 40 per cent of Chileans have received one dose so far, less than half that amount have had two. A recent study of the effectiveness of Chile’s vaccination programme found that two weeks after receiving a second jab, it is 56 per cent effective, but with one jab effectiveness drops to just 3 per cent.





> “The government was over-optimistic in believing that its successful vaccination programme would avoid a new wave of infections,” said Eduardo Engel, an economist who co-authored the report, explaining that in early February the government gave the impression that one dose was likely to have a significant effect.  “That led to people getting too relaxed, while the government was not very strict at implementing restrictions. The other factor is that the government did little to stop new variants entering the country, even though it knew since December that it was a major risk factor,” he added.


----------



## Flavour (Apr 13, 2021)

mx wcfc said:


> Interesting graphic...  if it works




What does it represent though


----------



## bimble (Apr 14, 2021)

The news from India is terrifying. And that after all the speculation about how the country must have reached some sort of herd immunity as there seemed no other explanation for the dramatic and sustained low numbers of cases over the past several months.
And of course the biggest festival in the world, that'll help. 








						Kumbh Mela 2021: Over 100 pilgrims, 20 seers test +ve in Maha Kumbh | India News - Times of India
					

India News: At least 102 pilgrims and 20 seers have tested positive for Covid-19 as religious heads have refused to get tested, wear masks and not follow social d




					timesofindia.indiatimes.com


----------



## miss direct (Apr 14, 2021)

Turkey today: 
number of tests:  310.420 
number of new cases:  62.797


----------



## elbows (Apr 14, 2021)

miss direct said:


> Turkey today:
> number of tests:  310.420
> number of new cases:  62.797



The BBC had Orla Guerin lending her doom tones and emotive political angles to the terrible story of Turkey in the pandemic on the main BBC news the other day, thats how bad its gotten there.


----------



## miss direct (Apr 14, 2021)

elbows said:


> The BBC had Orla Guerin lending her doom tones and emotive political angles to the terrible story of Turkey in the pandemic on the main BBC news the other day, thats how bad its gotten there.


I saw that, and my first thought was to wonder how long it is until she's asked to move on...the BBC is not particularly well regarded in various circles in Turkey.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 14, 2021)

bimble said:


> The news from India is terrifying. And that after all the speculation about how the country must have reached some sort of herd immunity as there seemed no other explanation for the dramatic and sustained low numbers of cases over the past several months.
> And of course the biggest festival in the world, that'll help.
> 
> 
> ...



We were discussing this a bit upthread, but those latest figures are really horrible 

On a slightly weirder note in the midst of all that .....

The Times of India article above, is a walking example of making those who are fluent in UK English wonder whether they understand Indian English at all  

I keep having to remind myself what the fuck a 'lakh' is (100,000).

(And good on you if you remember what a 'crore' is (ten million   ).


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 14, 2021)

More information about the Kumbh in the Times of India here :




			
				Times of India said:
			
		

> Lakhs of devotees have been gathering for the event on the banks of the River Ganga for a holy dip amid concerns over the surge in Covid-19 cases across the country.
> The Kumbh Mela is being held from April 1 to 30 this year.
> 
> The state government said that till 6pm, a staggering 13,51,631 devotees [aka 1,351,631!  ] had taken a dip on what is considered one of the most auspicious days of the Kumbh.



With some frightening infection-rate figures more generally, further down that article!


----------



## Flavour (Apr 15, 2021)

Potential for further calamity in Italy if the regional governments have their way.

Basically the leaders of Lombardy, Piedmont, Sicily (who have quite significant powers, like Mayors of massive counties) etc are all pushing the national government to relax restrctions, open restaurants, gyms, cinemas, and so on. The national government, who obviously has more serious scientfic advisers, is trying to push back, but the fatigue is really setting in now and the regional government leaders want to be seen as the face of the resistance to lockdown because they think it's a vote winner. 

But with vaccine figures being what they are (they've only just finished vaccinating the over 80s!) ... it's obviously going to end badly if the big reopening happens right now, esepcially with all these variants and so on


----------



## BigMoaner (Apr 15, 2021)

god those weekly jumps in deaths in america seem heartbreaking. 









						Covid-19 map of the US: latest cases state by state
					

There have now been more than 68m confirmed cases of Covid-19 across the United States




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Sunray (Apr 16, 2021)

bimble said:


> The news from India is terrifying. And that after all the speculation about how the country must have reached some sort of herd immunity as there seemed no other explanation for the dramatic and sustained low numbers of cases over the past several months.
> And of course the biggest festival in the world, that'll help.
> 
> 
> ...



Having this festival during the pandemic is possibly the most insane thing any country has ever done. Trump, Bolsonaro etc are nothing to allowing this to go ahead. I suppose it's such a fundamental part of their culture, I'm unsure they could actually do much to stop it. Hindu's don't view death in the same way as other cultures.

If people don't know the Kumba Mela is huge.  A big year, 50 million people gather in one place.  Its size varies depending on the year, the big ones are 6 and 12 years apart. There are I think 4 places in India that n accommodate such a gathering.  I want to volunteer one year to experience it. 

I suppose it's all outdoors?  The train home might be the real problem.....


----------



## bimble (Apr 16, 2021)

Sunray said:


> Having this festival during the pandemic is possibly the most insane thing any country has ever done. Trump, Bolsonaro etc are nothing to allowing this to go ahead. I suppose it's such a fundamental part of their culture, I'm unsure they could actually do much to stop it. Hindu's don't view death in the same way as other cultures.
> 
> If people don't know the Kumba Mela is huge.  A big year, 50 million people gather in one place.  Its size varies depending on the year, the big ones are 6 and 12 years apart. There are I think 4 places in India that n accommodate such a gathering.  I want to volunteer one year to experience it.
> 
> I suppose it's all outdoors?  The train home might be the real problem.....


I think any government would have struggled to tell people not to go to the holiest festival but this current one, Hindu Nationalist to the core, wouldn't have even considered trying.
I've been to one, long ago, absolutely mental. You want to "volunteer' as what?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 16, 2021)

BigMoaner said:


> god those weekly jumps in deaths in america seem heartbreaking.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Despite doing fairly well with vaccinations, the US average daily deaths, when adjusted for population, have been running at around five times that of the UK for the last few weeks.


----------



## crossthebreeze (Apr 16, 2021)

Absolutely grim news from Brazil - but also scary comment how close we came in the UK to not having enough out of sedative and paralytic drugs.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 16, 2021)

Sunray said:


> Having this festival during the pandemic is possibly the most insane thing any country has ever done. Trump, Bolsonaro etc are nothing to allowing this to go ahead. I suppose it's such a fundamental part of their culture, I'm unsure they could actually do much to stop it. Hindu's don't view death in the same way as other cultures.



Agreeing completely 

Allowing this is so bonkers, I had a real shock when I heard.

But I also don't think a ban could have been in any way enforced, or at least not ptoperly -- the Kumbh is so important for so many.



> If people don't know the Kumba Mela is huge.  A big year, 50 million people gather in one place.  Its size varies depending on the year, the big ones are 6 and 12 years apart. There are I think 4 places in India that n accommodate such a gathering.  *I want to volunteer one year to experience it*.



The Kumbh is something that in future I'd like to see in theory, but in practice, I reckon I'd be too scared/overwhelmed! 

Even the so-called half-Mela, sometimes held in non mega-years,  would be vast .....



> I suppose it's all outdoors?  The train home might be the real problem.....



From pix I've seen, there are plenty of temple-tents and the like as well as the outdoor bathing in the Ganges and so on. ......


----------



## Sunray (Apr 17, 2021)

bimble said:


> I think any government would have struggled to tell people not to go to the holiest festival but this current one, Hindu Nationalist to the core, wouldn't have even considered trying.
> I've been to one, long ago, absolutely mental. You want to "volunteer' as what?



I’m assuming there are things I could do as a non Hindu.  Not looked into it.  Not sure,  could just go. India is amazing.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 17, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Things are getting grim in India, at the start of March they were reporting an average of just over 15k new cases a day, that's now over 84k, following record of over 100k being recorded on Sunday.



Less than 2 weeks later, and the last couple of days they have reported over 200k new cases a day, although adjusted for population that's equal to only 10k a day in the UK, but OTOH they have only carried out under a 10th of the number of tests done per million compared to the UK, so we can assume the true figure is much higher.

When it comes to deaths, they have only recorded 126 per million, but there's massive under reporting and confusion about what the true figure actually is, and there doesn't appear to be any data comparing excess deaths since the start of the pandemic, which would give a better idea of the real situation.



> Rijo John, public health policy analyst and senior fellow at the Centre for Public Policy Research in Kerala, said some under-reporting is happening. He told _The Lancet_ that “while it is true that *only* *21% of all deaths are medically certified in India*, we should not forget that *more than 65% of the total COVID-19 deaths reported in India so far are from just four states*, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Delhi. In all these states, the death registration is 100%.”
> 
> The Lancet linky
> 
> * India is a federal union comprising 28 states and 8 union territories, for a total of 36 entities.



But, with hospitals being overwhelmed in some states, it must be pretty grim. 

Add into the mix this so-called "double mutate Indian variant", which has already surfaced in the UK, and is currently designated a “variant under investigation”, but according to reports, is a candidate for becoming a "variant of concern" pretty soon, it's shit all round.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 17, 2021)

Sunray said:


> I’m assuming there are things I could do as a non Hindu.  Not looked into it.  Not sure,  could just go. India is amazing.



I doubt the stewards/organisers there would try and stop you -- if you were showing respect and interest, I bet they'd welcome you. 
You're a braver man than me, though! -- the size of it!! 

And your adventure would have to be way in the future, obviously.

More thread-relevantly though, I suspect the full Covid-impact of this year's Mela happening, has yet to be known


----------



## extra dry (Apr 17, 2021)

Thailand starts local lockdowns. I am off till May. Yay. Online work 4 days a week, 2 hours a day. Stuck at home thou. Glad I can avoid the three muskrats till May 1st


----------



## sideboob (Apr 17, 2021)

Alaska to offer tourists COVID-19 vaccines starting June 1
					

Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy said Friday that COVID-19 vaccines would be made available at key airports in the state starting June 1, in unveiling plans aimed at bolstering the state's pandemic-battered tourist industry.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				



I was telling a friend that I may not even be able to vaccinated this year (in Japan) and she sent me this link.  I`ve always wanted to visit Alaska so I`m going to keep an eye on this and see if they actually go through with it.


----------



## yield (Apr 17, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Less than 2 weeks later, and the last couple of days they have reported over 200k new cases a day, although adjusted for population that's equal to only 10k a day in the UK, but OTOH they have only carried out under a 10th of the number of tests done per million compared to the UK, so we can assume the true figure is much higher.
> 
> When it comes to deaths, they have only recorded 126 per million, but there's massive under reporting and confusion about what the true figure actually is, and there doesn't appear to be any data comparing excess deaths since the start of the pandemic, which would give a better idea of the real situation.
> 
> ...


India’s health system has collapsed
APR 17, 2021
“We have collapsed, Maharashtra is sinking and other states will follow.”


> The main difference between 2020 and 2021, doctors I meet on the ground in Maharashtra say, is that younger Indians are being infected, among them children as young as five and three. The mutations may mean that instead of calling this a pandemic borne from the coronavirus, we needed to start using the word “viruses” as this strain(s) is playing out in multiple different ways.
> 
> Meanwhile, at crematoriums and graveyards, space runs short and the heart stops. In Ghatkopar, I meet a 95-year-old man in a wheelchair waiting to bid farewell to his wife. Another man, younger, angrier, shouts out. “First there was no space in hospitals, now there is no place at the shamshan ghat… Where should we go?”





> India’s health system has cracked under the weight of Covid. We are in a national emergency. The images of the election rallies, the religious congregations, the farmers protests — any mass congregation — is not just idiotic, it is an insult to the doctors at the frontline who say they are “exhausted and worn out”.
> 
> More than 800 doctors have already lost their lives to Covid. We claim to respect them and salute them every day. And yet, our utter callousness and the bizarre mixed messaging from our politicians — lockdowns for citizens, rallies for netas — are a criminal affront to every health worker on duty.
> 
> As Hemant Deshmukh, dean at Mumbai’s KEM Hospital told me, “Right now, we are discussing shortage of beds and drugs and vaccines. What if we run short of doctors?”


----------



## BigMoaner (Apr 17, 2021)

it's so sad. still shot through with anxiety when ever i begin to think of covid. poor india. poor world. just wish it was over.


----------



## Badgers (Apr 18, 2021)




----------



## MrSki (Apr 18, 2021)




----------



## Badgers (Apr 18, 2021)

Wonder why? 

Are they following the science?


----------



## Sunray (Apr 18, 2021)

yield said:


> India’s health system has collapsed
> APR 17, 2021
> “We have collapsed, Maharashtra is sinking and other states will follow.”



 India is still a rural and poor country with a population of 1.2 Billion people.  
Once something like this takes hold, unless they wield an iron fist like China did, preventing people from even leaving the house, how can this be stopped?
I'm pretty sure India doesn't have anywhere near the medical capacity to deal with this apart from vaccination.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 18, 2021)

Right now, all the above really re-inforces how much India  needs to hang on to, and use, *ALL* the capacity of the Serum Institute in Pune


----------



## spring-peeper (Apr 19, 2021)

You know you are in trouble when aljazeera does an article on you.

Our provincial leader, Doug Ford, is upset about the covid numbers, and introduced new measures.
Stay at home policy was extended by several weeks.
Cops will stop and question you if you are outside your house.  You must provide id and given valid reason.
Bunch of stuff closed.  Playgrouds, tennis and golf were now off limits.

And the backlash....
Police forces  refused to card anyone.  It would go against the constitution.
Backlast against children playing on the swings was massive.  Ford backed down.

and... the article ->  Ontario’s COVID crisis: ‘This scenario was entirely preventable’


----------



## Badgers (Apr 19, 2021)

Another long but interesting and well balanced thread here. Lot to take in and a mix of potential outcomes but she is part of Independent Sage so a pretty good source.


----------



## Supine (Apr 19, 2021)

Flights from India. Apparently there are fifty per day into UK at the moment


----------



## Badgers (Apr 19, 2021)

Saw that earlier... 

50 flights x how many passengers per day = very bad news.


----------



## kabbes (Apr 19, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Saw that earlier...
> 
> 50 flights x how many passengers per day = very bad news.


If they’re all like the flight up there ^^ that’s about 2500 per day with Indian-variant COVID arriving in the UK.


----------



## teqniq (Apr 19, 2021)

A huge mistake, driven I suspect mainly by greed:









						The world needs a patent waiver on Covid vaccines. Why is the UK blocking it? | Gabriel Scally
					

Letting countries create their own generic versions of the jabs is the best way to combat the spread of vaccine-resistant variants, says Gabriel Scally of Independent Sage




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Badgers (Apr 19, 2021)

kabbes said:


> If they’re all like the flight up there ^^ that’s about 2500 per day with Indian-variant COVID arriving in the UK.


I swap those 2500 for Disgraced Prime Minister Johnson if they agreed to keep him.


----------



## elbows (Apr 19, 2021)

bimble said:


> My correspondent in a small town in Rajasthan just explained that the reason India’s doing well is that the government is so great.
> 
> Does seem more likely that it’s herd immunity. So the opposite of lockdown. Which is interesting but you’d need the real covid-related death figures to know more.
> 
> ...



I'm quoting this post from Feb 13th now to illustrate how quickly things can change, and also as a warning to anybody who has not learnt the cruel lessons about premature proclamations of herd immunity in this pandemic.

Not that the article linked to should have left people with the impression herd immunity had been reached there.

Not having a go at you bimble, I just cant help pointing out certain lessons that I think are key in this pandemic, and when I was searching for what we were saying about India earlier this year I could not resist highlighting that post.


----------



## elbows (Apr 19, 2021)

I'd split the herd immuntiy lesson into three parts. Firstly be aware how many agendas make use of made up herd immunity claims. Secondly dont use it as a source of hope if you see data that implies 30% or 50% of people have antibodies, just resist the temptation, the threshold is expected to be much higher than that. Thirdly when we actually reach a point where experts tell us the herd immunity threshold has been reached, we still need to wait and make sure the expected protection is really there, and that it isnt scuppered by new variants, waning immunity or unknown factors. Hardly anywhere in the world has reached the point of testing that third part yet, apart from Manaus in Brazil which then suffered catastrophe.


----------



## glitch hiker (Apr 20, 2021)

Would it be terribly wrong for me to enjoy the schadenfreude of a racist sexist antivaxxer republican Trump supporting clown like Ted Nugent getting covid? 

He calls it the "Chinese shit"

So yes, no fucks given.


----------



## elbows (Apr 20, 2021)




----------



## moochedit (Apr 20, 2021)

glitch hiker said:


> Would it be terribly wrong for me to enjoy the schadenfreude of a racist sexist antivaxxer republican Trump supporting clown like Ted Nugent getting covid?
> 
> He calls it the "Chinese shit"
> 
> So yes, no fucks given.



No you are not wrong at all! 

The Independent: Ted Nugent tests positive for coronavirus after calling pandemic a ‘scam’.









						Ted Nugent tests positive for coronavirus after calling pandemic a ‘scam’
					

‘I thought I was dying,’ musician said




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Combustible (Apr 20, 2021)

elbows said:


>




At least Herman Cain remained steadfast from beyond the grave.


----------



## glitch hiker (Apr 20, 2021)

Combustible said:


> At least Herman Cain remained steadfast from beyond the grave.



I don't think Herman Cain liked having the virus


----------



## Sunray (Apr 20, 2021)

Combustible said:


> At least Herman Cain remained steadfast from beyond the grave.




Some of the comments are pretty funny.  If you are a denier and you die of COVID-19, my sympathy stopped stretching a long way before it reaches you.


----------



## bimble (Apr 21, 2021)

please could someone tell me what this bit means from the artricle below?
It says _"In the space of just 12 days, the Covid positivity rate doubled to 17%, while in Delhi it hit 30%."_
What does that mean, covid positivity rate.
It cant be, surely, that 3 in every 10 people in the capital have covid right now, can it. Anyway how would they even know?








						‘The system has collapsed’: India’s descent into Covid hell
					

Many falsely believed that the country had defeated Covid. Now hospitals are running out of oxygen and bodies are stacking up in morgues




					www.theguardian.com
				




The news from india is making me feel that this thing will not be over until maybe 2023, like in 1918-2020 with that second wave variant. Whilst goodwill & patience  (here and elsewhere ) will probably barely stretch into early June .


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 21, 2021)

bimble said:


> please could someone tell me what this bit means from the artricle below?
> It says _"In the space of just 12 days, the Covid positivity rate doubled to 17%, while in Delhi it hit 30%."_
> What does that mean, covid positivity rate.



It's the percentage of COVID tests that came back positive.


----------



## bimble (Apr 21, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> It's the percentage of COVID tests that came back positive.


of course.


----------



## Supine (Apr 21, 2021)

bimble said:


> of course.



To put 30% into context, CDC consider 15% as ‘spreading like wildfire’


----------



## miss direct (Apr 21, 2021)

Well Brits are now allowed back into Turkey on direct flights with no quarantine, just a negative test.


----------



## Sunray (Apr 21, 2021)

Been reading more about India. The more I read and the more I think about it the more worried I get about this outbreak.

India has turned into a model of what happens if you don't fully lockdown during a pandemic.  This is especially true when everyone lives in extremely close conditions. I'm surprised Delhi has gone past Mumbai.  Mumbai population has a staggering 20 million people in an area of just 603 square km. If you've ever been sometimes it's hard to stand more than 1m from anyone in the street.

They are running out or have run out of oxygen.
There are no beds
People are dying waiting outside the hospital
People are dying trying to find a hospital
People are dying trying to find oxygen
They are running out of medication
They can't cremate or bury the dead fast enough.

The graphs are pointless as they don't have the testing capacity, just think of a vertical line, you'd be as correct as any official statistics.  1.4 people a second are dying there.  
Their version of the virus has out-competed the Kent, SA and Brazilian variants in 2 months.  There is already talk of vaccine escape on this variant.

The most worrying for me is this statement from a doctor in Mumbai from this article ‘The system has collapsed’: India’s descent into Covid hell



> Thadhani said this time around the virus was “much more aggressive and much more infectious” and was now predominately affecting young people. “Now it is people in their 20s and 30s who are coming in with very severe symptoms and there is a lot of mortality among young people,” he said.



Under 45's aren't vaccinated here.



> Among the worst-hit cities in Uttar Pradesh was Lucknow, where 22-year-old Deepti Mistri – a mother of one who had no pre-existing health conditions – was among the city’s dead, after falling ill with Covid on 14 April.



She was 22,  got symptoms and died 5 days later.

Currently, 5% of Indian people flying back are testing positive. There was a flight from India to Hong Kong 4th April, 188 people, all tested "negative" before boarding. 53 tested positive in HK's strict 3-week quarantine procedure. That's over 25% infection rate on a single flight on the 4th of April.   I suspect the negative Indian testing can easily be purchased for a lot less than having the test.

Our borders to India don't close till Friday. WTF are we doing?  
Are we going to get the 3rd wave in the UK in the summer due to this variant?  
Here's a newspapers cartoon from the 19th century, welcoming Cholera to NYC (Dr John)


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 22, 2021)

India reported over 315k new cases yesterday, but as Sunray points out it's likely to be far higher due to lack of testing, i.e. they have carried out under 200k tests per million people, compared to the UK at over 2m.


----------



## bimble (Apr 22, 2021)

When India's infection rates appeared so low, for months, such that everyone was talking about it, could that possibly be because the new strain wasn't being picked up by the tests or what?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 22, 2021)

bimble said:


> When India's infection rates appeared so low, for months, such that everyone was talking about it, could that possibly be because the new strain wasn't being picked up by the tests or what?



I don't think so, PCR & LFT tests have been picking up new variants all the time, across the world, just as covid in general, rather than it being a specific new variant.

More likely down to a combination of lack of testing, and the fact that this far more infectious variant has only been around for a fairly short time period, but taken off very, very quickly, as the Kent variant did.


----------



## Sunray (Apr 22, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> I don't think so, PCR & LFT tests have been picking up new variants all the time, across the world, just as covid in general, rather than it being a specific new variant.
> 
> More likely down to a combination of lack of testing, and the fact that this far more infectious variant has only been around for a fairly short time period, *but taken off very, very quickly, as the Kent variant did.*



I think its even eclipses the Kent variant, for a country that is low on tests, I think that upswing is about one month wide. 
Anyone's guess at the real number.  Any infectious disease that's unknowingly transmitted in close contact in a country where people are really close together is in trouble.


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 22, 2021)

This FT analyst reckons the true death toll in India is 10 times official figures, putting deaths at close to 20,000 a day.


----------



## Orang Utan (Apr 22, 2021)

This is a grim watch - be warned:


----------



## Sunray (Apr 22, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> This FT analyst reckons the true death toll in India is 10 times official figures, putting deaths at close to 20,000 a day.
> 
> View attachment 264379



In western countries where we have the medical capacity and wealth to lock down the nation, the % death from catching covid-19 is 0.7%


Yossarian said:


> This FT analyst reckons the true death toll in India is 10 times official figures, putting deaths at close to 20,000 a day.
> 
> View attachment 264379



I think we can safely say this is already a catastrophe and it's only 60 days since they started noticing this variant.  
Delhi is pretty much out of Oxygen.  More is on the way but if you're on a ventilator and it runs out of oxygen, you die.

I see China is offering to help, I think it's possibly the only country with enough resources to make an immediate dent.  
I hope the USA will stop blocking the bags they cultivate vaccines in, there are only 2 companies that make them and they are both in the USA and the US is preventing exports.


----------



## Sunray (Apr 22, 2021)

FYI: We are really global now,. which is fine until it's not








						Global Covid vaccine rollout threatened by shortage of vital components
					

Pharmaceutical firms warn of delays to items such as the large bags in which vaccine cells are grown




					www.theguardian.com
				




An excellent explanation of why


----------



## Badgers (Apr 23, 2021)

Olympics anyone?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 23, 2021)

My heart goes out to India, it's seriously in covid hell.  

More hospitals running out of oxygen, and reduced to appealing on twitter for supplies.




Crematorium struggling to deal with demand.



> Families are also waiting hours to perform funeral rites, Reuters news agency reports, with at least one Delhi crematorium resorting to building pyres in its car park in order to cope with the numbers arriving. Crematoriums are holding mass cremations, and working day and night in several cities.
> 
> "During the first phase of coronavirus, the average here was eight to 10. One day it reached 18. But today the situation is very bad. Last night we cremated 78 bodies," Jitender Singh Shunty, who runs a crematorium in northeast Delhi, told Reuters.
> 
> "It is four times more frightful, this coronavirus... Many bodies are around, waiting. We have no place left in the crematorium to cremate them. Very bad times, very bad times," he added.



BBC Link

And, massive under reporting of covid deaths, that some reports suggest are running at up to ten times the official figures of over 2,000 a day.



> In Lucknow, the capital city of India’s most populous state of Uttar Pradesh, the official number of Covid deaths between April 11 to April 16 stood at 145. However, just two of the city’s main crematoriums reported more than 430 or three times as many cremations under Covid-19 protocol in that period, according to eyewitnesses and workers, who asked not to be named because they weren’t authorized to speak to reporters. This doesn’t account for burials or funerals at other smaller cremation grounds in the city.





> In the industrial city of Surat, located in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, the head of a trust that runs crematoriums said at least 100 bodies have been brought in each day for the last 10 days, wrapped in the Covid-mandated protective covering. Surat’s municipal body on April 19 reported only 28 virus deaths.





> Sanjeev Gupta, a freelance photojournalist in the central city of Bhopal, said he has consistently witnessed 80 to 120 bodies being cremated each day last week at just one of the city’s three cremation centers set aside for Covid cases. The official virus death numbers for the district were below 10 each day. According to news reports, the state government said the deaths were “suspected Covid” but couldn’t be confirmed because of a shortage of testing kits and lab facilities.



This article is hard to read, and frankly heart breaking.  



			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 23, 2021)

I don't think I can work up to reading that Bloomberg article yet, but I will make myself do that later. Everything sounds horrendous!


----------



## teuchter (Apr 23, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Olympics anyone?



Just to put Japan's 'emergency' in perspective...


----------



## miss direct (Apr 23, 2021)

I'm teaching lots of Indian students at the moment. If anyone questions why these people arrived, I can say that various UK universities told them they had to come to the UK by a certain date in order to continue their studies (even though the studies are still online for now.) They are also mainly failing to self isolate completely, as they need to buy food (and without a UK bank card, that's difficult).


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 23, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Just to put Japan's 'emergency' in perspective...
> 
> View attachment 264491



Looks like an emergency to me - cases are rising steeply in a country where very few people have had the virus and less than 1% of one of the world's oldest populations has been vaccinated. All those lines from other countries show the disaster that could be waiting to happen if strict measures aren't taken.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 23, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Just to put Japan's 'emergency' in perspective...
> 
> View attachment 264491



Why do you keep doing this?  

The only perspective that matters is Japan's and they deem it to be an emergency.  _But its much worse over there_ doesn't seem to be especially relevant.


----------



## elbows (Apr 23, 2021)

Other aspects of the context in Japan:

State of emergency stuff is how they do lockdowns legislatively.
These measures will cover the 'Golden week' holidays.
Unimpressive healthcare capacity.









						Three months before Olympics, Japan declares 'short' emergency in Tokyo
					

Japan declared "short and powerful" states of emergency for Tokyo, Osaka and two other prefectures on Friday as the country struggles to contain a resurgent coronavirus pandemic three months before the Olympics.




					www.reuters.com
				




Includes a new aspect to their measures:



> "We will be asking for illuminations and neon signs to be turned off," Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike told a news conference.
> 
> "It will be dark at night," she said, adding she hoped the initiative would discourage people from going out at night. Koike also asked non-residents to refrain from entering Tokyo as much as possible.



And mutants:



> Of the cases tested by the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Public Health between April 5 and 11, about 38% involved the variants first found in the U.K., South Africa and Brazil, believed to be more contagious than the original virus.
> 
> About 46% of infections differed from these variants and carried a mutation called E484K, suspected of making vaccines less effective and reinfecting those who previously had COVID-19. E484K, which is also found in the South Africa and Brazil variants, raises renewed concerns that the vaccine drive will not be as effective as originally hoped, just as the program kicks off in Japan.











						India and Japan wrestle with new COVID waves driven by variants
					

Mutations hit Asia hard and fast, casting Tokyo Olympics in uncertainty




					asia.nikkei.com


----------



## teuchter (Apr 23, 2021)

Teaboy said:


> Why do you keep doing this?
> 
> The only perspective that matters is Japan's and they deem it to be an emergency.  _But its much worse over there_ doesn't seem to be especially relevant.


Because if you see an announcement that a country has called a state of emergency, you might think that means that things have got entirely out of control. In particular at the moment, with worries about new variants, seeing countries like Japan which have so far done fairly well suddenly seeing big rises could be very concerning.

It's quite possible of course that this does represent the beginning of something going badly wrong, but for me it is useful to see it in context. The numbers at this moment are very low compared to what we have seen in Europe and they are also not very different to what Japan saw 3 or 4 months ago and managed to bring down again.

I find it useful to make this kind of comparison to understand what it actually means when a headline talks about an emergency.


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 23, 2021)

Unless their COVID protocols were designed with the British, Brazilian etc. strains in mind, seems like it'd be mad for Japan to go ahead with the Olympics now unless they're planning to award a medal for Most Infectious Variant.


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 23, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> Unless their COVID protocols were designed with the British, Brazilian etc. strains in mind, seems like it'd be mad for Japan to go ahead with the Olympics now unless they're planning to award a medal for Most Infectious Variant.



In India they've been cracking on with the IPL   

For those that don't know the IPL is an Indian cricket tournament which is the richest and biggest in the world and has stars from all over the world playing.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 23, 2021)

Sky News is reporting from outside a hospital in India, they have run out of space inside, they are trying to treat patients in the queue outside, and the reporter has witnessed at least six die in that queue in the short time they have been there. 😭


----------



## Teaboy (Apr 23, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Because if you see an announcement that a country has called a state of emergency, you might think that means that things have got entirely out of control. In particular at the moment, with worries about new variants, seeing countries like Japan which have so far done fairly well suddenly seeing big rises could be very concerning.
> 
> It's quite possible of course that this does represent the beginning of something going badly wrong, but for me it is useful to see it in context. The numbers at this moment are very low compared to what we have seen in Europe and they are also not very different to what Japan saw 3 or 4 months ago and managed to bring down again.
> 
> I find it useful to make this kind of comparison to understand what it actually means when a headline talks about an emergency.



That doesn't really explain much.  It just comes across as you downplaying stuff and contradicting people on the ground living it.  I should add I don't think that's your intention it just comes across like that.


----------



## Sunray (Apr 23, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Sky News is reporting from outside a hospital in India, they have run out of space inside, they are trying to treat patients in the queue outside, and the reporter has witnessed at least six die in that queue in the short time they have been there. 😭



This is unfolding like a daily Tsunami with endless waves crashing into the shore.

I don't really see the RoW can really do too much to help here?  
Provide oxygen certainly? Get cargo flights going with lots to see if that temporary crisis can be averted.  India can make plenty but it's a matter of logistics.  If you fly it into Delhi at least it would give them some time to get things up to speed.
India makes meds and vaccines and is vaccinating a lot of people every day.
Provide emergency additional facilities, probably not?  Covid requires specialist multidisciplinary care and care may need to go on for weeks or months. A field hospital is just a tent if it can't help you with the drugs and care you need.

The biggest thing India can do is to social distance and isolate for a while. Sadly this is totally impossible for the majority of Indian people.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 23, 2021)

Allies can certainly ship oxygen, and the wherewithall to produce more, any international help is going to take days to establish itself and many thousands don't have that time. I can remember seeing the claims of earlier cases and not believing it, this is more what I expected, sad to say.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 23, 2021)

Sunray said:


> This is unfolding like a daily Tsunami with endless waves crashing into the shore.
> 
> *I don't really see the RoW can really do too much* to help here?



Did a quick Google of RoW, with no joy  -- please, what is it? 

But one of the quickest things rich ountries need to do right now, and could surely do, is send multiple cargo flights to India, filled entirely with oxygen cylinders ..... ???


----------



## two sheds (Apr 23, 2021)

Rest of the World


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 23, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Rest of the World


Thanks, blame first world beer for my not being aware of that  

But I *really* hope India, and RoW, work out some way of mitigating the terrible things happening there right now


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 24, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Sky News is reporting from outside a hospital in India, they have run out of space inside, they are trying to treat patients in the queue outside, and the reporter has witnessed at least six die in that queue in the short time they have been there. 😭



This was the main story just now on Sky News, with a 10 minute report, partly filmed inside the over crowded hospital, with patients on trollies packed into a ward, at the foot of normal beds, apparently more are in the main reception area, with several just on the floor, as the queue outside continues to grow. 

This is one of the main hospitals in New Delhi, and the fear is it could be much worst in some rural areas, in the metro area of New Delhi (pop. 26.5m) the number of covid patients in hospital has gone from 544 on 12th March to 18,154 on 22nd April.

A doctor from the Public Health Foundation of India said, even with the current lockdown, they don't expect this wave to peak until mid-May.  

There was almost 350k new cases reported yesterday.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 24, 2021)

Apparently various countries, including the UK, US & China, are in talks with India about how they can keep.

The UK is talking about sending drugs, oxygen & ventilators.


----------



## Badgers (Apr 24, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Apparently various countries, including the UK, US & China, are in talks with India about how they can keep.
> 
> The UK is talking about sending drugs, oxygen & ventilators.


Is Dyson sorting the ventilators?


----------



## IC3D (Apr 24, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Is Dyson sorting the ventilators?


Sweeten the trade deal.
Countries around the world would have resilience plans, I don't understand at this point why storing extra oxygen wouldn't be happening some places


----------



## platinumsage (Apr 24, 2021)

Massive fuck up by the Indian government on vaccines, they've bought less than a tenth of the amount of vaccine doses than Brazil has. Thanks to their nationalism they refused local production and licensing of Pfizer insisting that new local trials be conducted first. Meanwhile directed lots of funds to the "100% Indian" vaccine, COVAXIN, designed and produced by Bharat Biotech, despite it being at that point in very early stage trials and with no mass production capability in place. Their biggest vaccine producer the, Serum Institute, was signing deals last year to export hundreds of million of AZ doses all around the world - but the Indian government didn't buy any AZ from them until earlier this year, and only 11m doses which is nothing.

And they gave up on test, trace and isolate, even having a slogan about how vaccines will save the day


----------



## teqniq (Apr 24, 2021)

This is the absolute height of folly:









						America Is Embargoing Supplies While India Burns
					

America is actively shutting down global vaccine production



					indi.ca


----------



## not-bono-ever (Apr 24, 2021)

Norwegian climber who was first to test positive for COVID at Mount Everest went during pandemic 'because it was cheaper'
					

Erlend Ness "really started to feel bad" on his trek to base camp but decided to continue following his team.




					news.sky.com
				




wankers. wankers everywhere


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 24, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> This article is hard to read, and frankly heart breaking.
> 
> 
> 
> Bloomberg - Are you a robot?






William of Walworth said:


> I don't think I can work up to reading that Bloomberg article yet, but I will make myself do that later. Everything sounds horrendous!



I've read this now 

Indeed, it's all horrific .....


----------



## Sasaferrato (Apr 24, 2021)

The wee shop up from us, which used to operated by my friend Qaiser, is now being operated by Sri Lankan couple

The bloke was showing Mrs Sas some video this morning. Overwhelmed doesn't cover it.

India has had a million new cases in three days. A million. I just can't get my head around that.


----------



## weltweit (Apr 24, 2021)

I heard that there are container sized bits of plant which make oxygen at a fair rate. Sounds like India could do with being shipped a good few hundred of these.


----------



## bimble (Apr 25, 2021)

Indian government is responding by continuing to hold massive election rallies and by censoring tweets that are critical of its handling of the disaster. Twitter is agreeing to help them restrict people's access to information.









						Twitter Is Blocking Tweets That Criticize How The Indian Government Has Handled The Pandemic
					

More than 50 tweets are now blocked in India.




					www.buzzfeednews.com
				




Friend who works for a NGO there says about 70% of migrant workers have gone back to their villages already, or are making their way back, fearing a sudden lockdown like the last one which left them stranded, which means the poorest are going to be without any income for as long as this goes on. He says the NGO is planning on 3 months.


----------



## Sunray (Apr 25, 2021)

India can make plenty of oxygen, it has a gas and steel industry and to make steel you need to inject oxygen, I suspect they use the oxygen process as it uses less electricity. 
The problem in India it’s one of getting it to the people who need it. Production is potentially 1000km from where it’s needed.  They have used the trains, roads would be too slow.


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 25, 2021)

miss direct said:


> Well Brits are now allowed back into Turkey on direct flights with no quarantine, just a negative test.


Can you still get a visa on arrival?


----------



## miss direct (Apr 25, 2021)

Brits don't need a visa anymore.


----------



## miss direct (Apr 25, 2021)

It's no fun looking back at the first page of this thread. I am surprised there was no thread about this till towards the end of January 2020. I spent the whole of that month pet sitting on the southern coast of Turkey (lucky me!) and the disabled cat liked to have BBC World news on, so I was aware pretty early. Then spotted the odd mask back in Istanbul. Due to the outbreak in Iran my main source of work was cancelled mid February. I definitely felt rising panic way before others were affected or concerned.

The Turkish authorities played completely dumb by denying that covid was present in Turkey, despite open borders to the world and thousands of Iranians in and out. Among other ignorant claims was the suggestion that there was no covid there because Turkish people are so clean due to their use of lemon cologne. The Turkish authorities have behaved predictably poorly throughout, and even now tourists are welcomed in and free to roam while residents and citizens face severe restrictions.

Just watched the latest news from India and its so awful that the world is facing this, 16 months on...so much incompetence and despair.


----------



## bimble (Apr 26, 2021)

I just got some news that’s brought home to me the absolute devastation that’s going on there. Old man who with his family has run a guesthouse in Delhi forever, that I’ve stayed at a few times over the years. He (goes by the Major) is in hospital with covid, and so is his daughter, and his wife died with it last week. Just unimaginable despair must be going on there, if one family can be hit like this. He’s very old.


----------



## elbows (Apr 26, 2021)

miss direct said:


> I am surprised there was no thread about this till towards the end of January 2020.



It was on my radar from the start of January but I dont believe in going on about novel outbreaks until there is a certain amount of info available about human to human transmission. Otherwise I'd far too easily have become the boy who cried wolf too often in the past. That threshold was passed only a few days before someone else started this thread on January 20th. I dont know exactly what date it really passed that threshold in my own mind, I didnt start keeping my own timeline records till a bit later, but it would have been somewhere between the 14th and the 18th of January 2020. Then there was a brief period where it was unclear what range the fatality rate was, and where I could not get an exact grip on the pandemic potential of this virus, in part because of the way the original SARS outbreak was contained years earlier despite spreading between people. And then there was a period that seemed to drag on forever where there was an unnecessary reluctance shown by many to call it a pandemic even though it was pretty obvious thats what it would become. I promised not to goo too far out on a limb about that but even with that self-imposed restrain the slowness of the authorities still left me plenty of time to start calling it a pandemic before a pandemic had been declared. And even then there were a few fools who still found it an appropriate stage to sneer at me calling it a bad pandemic unfolding before our eyes.

Apologies for the excessive navel-gazing, reviewing the early months helps me to come to terms with what happened.


----------



## elbows (Apr 26, 2021)

I do regret not being able to keep up with the pandemic in very many countries. 

Thailand is giving me some cause for concern due to rising cases there. And I see their PM has been fined for not wearing a mask!









						Thai Prime Minister Fined $190 For Not Wearing Face Mask
					

Thailand's Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha was fined 6,000 baht ($190) on Monday for breaching rules aimed at containing the coronavirus by not wearing a face mask, the governor of Bangkok said.




					www.ndtv.com


----------



## Petcha (Apr 26, 2021)

An Aussie cricketer playing in India is giving $50k to the cause in India. Meanwhile nothing from the hugely paid Indian players apparently. Although giving to something called the 'PM's Fund' might be a bit misguided considering his handling of the shitshow so far.


----------



## kabbes (Apr 26, 2021)

elbows said:


> It was on my radar from the start of January but I dont believe in going on about novel outbreaks until there is a certain amount of info available about human to human transmission. Otherwise I'd far too easily have become the boy who cried wolf too often in the past. That threshold was passed only a few days before someone else started this thread on January 20th. I dont know exactly what date it really passed that threshold in my own mind, I didnt start keeping my own timeline records till a bit later, but it would have been somewhere between the 14th and the 18th of January 2020. Then there was a brief period where it was unclear what range the fatality rate was, and where I could not get an exact grip on the pandemic potential of this virus, in part because of the way the original SARS outbreak was contained years earlier despite spreading between people. And then there was a period that seemed to drag on forever where there was an unnecessary reluctance shown by many to call it a pandemic even though it was pretty obvious thats what it would become. I promised not to goo too far out on a limb about that but even with that self-imposed restrain the slowness of the authorities still left me plenty of time to start calling it a pandemic before a pandemic had been declared. And even then there were a few fools who still found it an appropriate stage to sneer at me calling it a bad pandemic unfolding before our eyes.
> 
> Apologies for the excessive navel-gazing, reviewing the early months helps me to come to terms with what happened.


I was definitely blind to the disastrous events unfurling until well into February.  I remember reading your warnings and thinking “yeah, right, it’s just another one of these panics that doesn’t amount to anything.”  I’ve subsequently done a lot of my own navel-gazing to understand why this was.   I have a professional stake in not being blind to emerging risks, so it’s crucial for me to understand what went so wrong in my perception of this risk.  I’ve certainly learned a lot in the process about the way my own cognitive biases kicked in to protect me from anxiety, and I’ve formulated ways to try to mitigate that in the future. But part of the process is to recognise that I will likely make similar mistakes again, and have red flags to remind me of this.


----------



## elbows (Apr 26, 2021)

As well as personal bias, complications include authorities trying to buy time by downplaying their language at key early stages. Human to human transmission is key, but we then have to correctly decode stuff about 'currently no evidence' and the word 'limited' being tacked onto the front of human to human transmission. At that stage the best way to bypass the reassuring bullshit is to try to get a better understanding of the scale of the initial outbreak. For example, one way to get an instant giant red flag is if authorities have been alerted to the existence of the outbreak via unusual numbers of patients presenting themselves at hospitals. Healthcare workers contracting the diease is another instant red flag as thats one of the ways an initial picture of human to human transmission is generated.

Testing whether the right balance has been struck requires testing whether the bar is then set too low by applying it to a situation where the word limited actually deserved to be attached to human to human transmission. Concerns about the pandemic potential of the H5N1 bird flu may be a useful test. Over a number of years there were examples of clusters of cases involving some limited spread between people, so we have to look at the detail. eg when clusters typically involve an obvious animal source each time, and then some limited spread between family members, and on occasion the occasional colleague or healthcare professional, then this is not enough to fully raise the sort of red flag we could quickly raise with this current pandemic virus. Another way these variables may be described is in terms of whether there are any signs of 'community spread'. But its easy for inappropriate surveillance to miss that and for authorities to deliberately downplay such concerns (eg early stage of UK first wave). There are also current versions of these sorts of communications and judgements we can study. In the UK at the moment this would apply to mutant variants - authorities will be reassured when they can link most cases to travel history, but as soon as they find cases with no such travel history and no obvious link to other cases, then that should act as tentative evidence of community spread.

Having the right sources and being able to study their language and tone during non-pandemic times, and seeing how such stuff evolves and varies with each outbreak as info comes in and then seeing whether the threat becomes a real big event or a false alarm, is also useful. For disease outbreaks, I recommend becoming familiar with posts on promed. Home - ProMED - ProMED-mail


----------



## elbows (Apr 26, 2021)

Anotehr key is to try to account for the various sorts of lag between reality and evidence, statements by authorities etc. The lag may vary in future from what I've been used to dealing with in the past, as a result of heightened awareness and surveillance this pandemic has generated. But then there is still the time buffer that authorities like to give themselves to make decisions etc in private before the broader public are informed.

It does my head in that a bunch of people here were better at taking some forms of lag into effect when reaching judgements about the stage of pandemic in this country, than some of the establishment experts were. They were some weeks behind the curve for ages and didnt begin to catch up until mid-March 2020. As seen most vididly with the rubbish claims that we were 4 weeks behind Italy, when we were actually 2 weeks behind. In this sort of area I remain a massive fan of the sort of shared information and analysis, both formal and informal, that the internet offers at quite some scale.

When it comes to other detail such as asymptomatic transmission, masks, the need to close schools, a bunch of my judgements worked out pretty well. I put this down to some prior knowledge, managing to listen to the right people, and at all times having authority and expert bias against 'inconvenient possibilities with unthinkable implications' firmly at the forefront of my mind, and compensating for that.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 26, 2021)

I think I didn't take it very seriously until only a week or two before the first lockdown happened. At the time I was doing some work with some people which involved me going into their offices a couple of days each week; a couple of them (one of whom is from Hong Kong) had been following it very intently for a few weeks already and even buying face masks in advance. They were also already making plans for how the office would operate if there was an outbreak which would involve everyone working from home. I thought they were being a bit paranoid and these seemed quite extreme circumstances to be preparing for. Eventually I realised that this probably was going to be a "real" thing that would affect the UK and from that point everything happened quite quickly. I remember joking as I left that office one day that I'd see them next week or 'maybe not' and it turned out that indeed I did not see them the next week because we were in lockdown by them.

I can also vaguely recall a gradual realisation of what the consequences of everything were going to be... which started out with "this is annoying, some trips and events are going to get cancelled" to "this is the next year or two screwed up possibly with things never quite returning to the same".


----------



## elbows (Apr 26, 2021)

I also being particularly depressed when it came time to tell people here that no, the WHO would not recommend border closures and travel restrictions. Indeed almost the opposite, they put more effort into press releases about how they were working with the world tourism board. I was able to say that stuff only because I'd looked at some of the history, and which way institutions priorities are ordered in a neoliberal era. Not that my own output on this angle was great looking back, since from the start of this thread I took a 'horse has already bolted' view and mostly restricted myself to talking about what various authorities would actually do, rather than what they should do.

I was reminded of this again recently because there was a recent article looking at Vietnams early successes which focussed on the border and travel aspect, and including quotes from a humbled expert who bought into the previously established view.









						Vietnam defies experts, seals border and contains Covid-19
					

Vietnam is one of the few countries in the world which had put the strictest travel restrictions in place to curb the spread of Covid-19




					www.dhakatribune.com
				






> “In the age of mass travel and globalization, it seemed virtually impossible — counterproductive even — for cities or countries to isolate themselves. The mantra in global health became ‘diseases know no borders,’” said Lawrence Gostin, a Georgetown University global health law professor who helped write the international law governing how countries should deal with outbreaks.
> 
> “That’s why Vietnam is now among a few countries upending the global health community’s almost religious belief that travel restrictions are bad.”
> 
> “I have now realized,” Gostin added, “that our belief about travel restrictions was just that — a belief. It was evidence-free,” he told Vox.


----------



## elbows (Apr 26, 2021)

Speaking of which, we should expect some changes to global health laws as a result of this pandemic, but the wheels turn very slowly when it comes to reform of that stuff so I cannot predict when or how far they will go.


----------



## Flavour (Apr 26, 2021)

Italy largely (15 out of 20 regions) reopened today. Outdoor seating only (unlike last summer when even indoors was allowed) for bars and restaurants, end of restrictions on movement among those 15 "yellow" (low risk) regions, but nationwide curfew at 10pm remains.

Very worried about this backfiring if what I can only assume is a hyper-contagious Indian variant takes off here. Only 20% of the population have had their first jab.


----------



## eatmorecheese (Apr 26, 2021)

I managed to avoid for a couple of days the footage from Delhi and elsewhere in India. Seen some now and I'm in bits.

Especially thinking of those villages and slums where millions won't go near a doctor, will die away from the headlines. 

No words.


----------



## Sunray (Apr 26, 2021)

eatmorecheese said:


> I managed to avoid for a couple of days the footage from Delhi and elsewhere in India. Seen some now and I'm in bits.
> 
> Especially thinking of those villages and slums where millions won't go near a doctor, will die away from the headlines.
> 
> No words.



Its very sad, its good the world is starting to send help.

I don't think it could be much more contagious than the UK variant, probably was that that kicked started this wave .  Its puzzling it didn't hit the 1st time around, genetics perhaps.  

If anyone has been to India will well know the cities are insane mutating grounds for anything transmissible in the air. Now the blue paper has been lit, nothing good is going to happen.


----------



## Badgers (Apr 27, 2021)

Wtf?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 27, 2021)

miss direct said:


> It's no fun looking back at the first page of this thread. I am surprised there was no thread about this till towards the end of January 2020. I spent the whole of that month pet sitting on the southern coast of Turkey (lucky me!) and the disabled cat liked to have BBC World news on, so I was aware pretty early. Then spotted the odd mask back in Istanbul. Due to the outbreak in Iran my main source of work was cancelled mid February. I definitely felt rising panic way before others were affected or concerned.
> 
> The Turkish authorities played completely dumb by denying that covid was present in Turkey, despite open borders to the world and thousands of Iranians in and out. Among other ignorant claims was the suggestion that there was no covid there because Turkish people are so clean due to their use of lemon cologne. The Turkish authorities have behaved predictably poorly throughout, and even now tourists are welcomed in and free to roam while residents and citizens face severe restrictions.
> 
> Just watched the latest news from India and its so awful that the world is facing this, 16 months on...so much incompetence and despair.


Turkey is going into another lockdown.



> Turkey has also announced a "full lockdown" from tomorrow to May 17 after logging 37,312 new infections and 353 deaths in the last 24 hours.











						Boris Johnson says there will probably be a third wave of Covid in the UK
					

The Prime Minister insisted Britain is not out of the woods - despite the success of the vaccine programme - as coronavirus cases surge elsewhere in the world




					www.mirror.co.uk


----------



## miss direct (Apr 27, 2021)

With alcohol sales banned too.


----------



## Mr.Bishie (Apr 27, 2021)

What’s the situation with other European countries now, Italy, Spain, France?


----------



## Flavour (Apr 27, 2021)

Mr.Bishie re: italy see post 9399


----------



## teuchter (Apr 27, 2021)

Mr.Bishie said:


> What’s the situation with other European countries now, Italy, Spain, France?


----------



## Flavour (Apr 27, 2021)

‘This Is a Catastrophe.’ In India, Illness Is Everywhere.
					

As India suffers the world’s worst coronavirus crisis, our New Delhi bureau chief describes the fear of living amid a disease spreading at such scale and speed.




					www.nytimes.com
				




The new Indian variant is already confirmed present in Italy. I am terrified that there may be a similarly massive new wave across Europe despite vaccinations.


----------



## Doctor Carrot (Apr 27, 2021)

I'm probably rather naieve to be surprised how this is spreading like fire in hot countries like India and Brazil. Sun is supposed to minimise transmission of viruses but not so with covid. 

I've also been quite alarmed at just how young many people in India I've seen on news reports who are seriously ill with it. It looks truly horrifying over there. To think our government wanted to persue herd immunity in the beginning and just let it go through the population.


----------



## Sunray (Apr 28, 2021)

The age of the sick is worrying. Simply because it’s the section of the population we’ve not vaccinated yet.

I don’t think it’s more transmissible simply because Indian people don’t have much of a concept of personal space, certainly not in the way I do. Cities especially. Packed in tight. You have to have been to truly understand quite what I mean. Can’t think of a meaningful metaphor.
It’s known the more virus you inhale the more deadly it can be. If your sleeping in a room with a number of people that are positive it’s not a good situation.
Kumba mela it’s dorms, 20+ to a room

what I didn’t realise, for such a sunny country, they are all vitamin d deficient. Culturally Don’t expose their skin to the sun, 40-99% deficient. Mainly vegetarian too so don’t get much in the diet.
Vitamins d is very important to the immune system, so could account for the age issue.


----------



## bimble (Apr 28, 2021)

What is happening in India and now Nepal as well should scare the shit out of us . No ‘it couldn’t happen here’ because personal space or diet or anything else, please.
Friend just sent me a few of his recent family texts , young (20s and 30s) healthy people are dropping like flies.
it’s absolutely terrifying.

This he sent too. It’s from a Buddhist community. Just for a non-personal example:


----------



## elbows (Apr 28, 2021)

I need data about ages because of stuff like this that I said the other day on the covid mutations thread. Which certainly doesnt mean I discount whats being said, just that I cannot form a proper picture of ages etc from what Ive heard so far. Because if an outbreak is large enough then even a low percentage of younger people affected adds up to a considerable number of people.



> I find a lot of the claims about age groups severely affected by a particular variant to be hard to judge properly a lot of the time. eg when they are mostly coming via stories about the hospital and death situation in countries that are having a really huge wave of the disease in general.
> 
> I say that because of the 'a small percentage of a large number is still quite a lot of people' dynamic that we've seen in various ways in this pandemic. It certainly applies to younger people requiring hospital treatment as a result of this virus, as the risk to them is lower than for older people but it isnt zero, so when there are a huge number of cases there will be plenty of younger people needing treatment. And if the hospital is already full or lacking oxygen etc then there will be no shortage of terrible stories of some of those people dying.
> 
> This doesnt mean I discount stories about how a particular variant may be affecting younger people more, it might, its something to be alert for. But I need proper data, proper numbers and proportions before I can form a tentative opinion, and to form a more solid opinion than that I would need to read about proper clinical studies etc.


----------



## Sunray (Apr 28, 2021)

elbows said:


> I need data about ages because of stuff like this that I said the other day on the covid mutations thread. Which certainly doesnt mean I discount whats being said, just that I cannot form a proper picture of ages etc from what Ive heard so far. Because if an outbreak is large enough then even a low percentage of younger people affected adds up to a considerable number of people.



I was wondering too. 
I doubt right now there is anything meaningful or trustworthy.   But it does need to get done, or how do you know where to direct help?  It's a big place.


----------



## elbows (Apr 28, 2021)

Sunray said:


> I was wondering too.
> I doubt right now there is anything meaningful or trustworthy.   But it does need to get done, or how do you know where to direct help?  It's a big place.



Frankly when an outbreak is really huge a lot of the challenge that authorities face is to do with demand vastly outstripping supply, and resulting attempts to suppress demand out of desperation. The 'protect the NHS, die at home' aspect was part of the first wave management of the situation in the UK and although this aspect wasnt completely hidden, its not been properly reflected on since then. Point is that under those conditions some of the demand management may focus on those considered more likely to be saveable, overall, as seen most obviously with policies about who to treat in intensive care. But under those conditions I dont think its a high priority for authorities to seek out all younger cohorts who for various individual reasons are likely to be at high risk. Those nuances and the additional pressures from increase in demand that properly dealing with such possibilities would create doesnt get that much of a look in when dealing with a huge crisis in numbers of people seeking medical care 

This reply assumes I've correctly interpreted what you mean by 'how do you know where to direct help?'.


----------



## Sunray (Apr 28, 2021)

Without statistics telling us where people are sick, what age groups are dying and where, why etc its hard to understand what is going on.  Statistics the UK and the CDC have literally tons the touch of a button for anyone who wants to look.

India is still an emerging country really.  When it works it's amazing to watch and see there is order to the mad crucible you are now living in.  They do have these statistical services and probably work pretty well but when the work is suddenly times a hundred or times a thousand like anywhere there is a tipping point where it stops functioning. With so many people this is something that can happen so fast it's impossible to do much about it.

Some of the help that needs to go out there would be to record accurate statistics or all that aid is going to be difficult to accurately deploy.  Or it just becomes 'throw it at Delhi and hope it helps someone'.
Yoss pointed out the death toll there is at least 10x official statistics or *20000* or more a day.  

Not sure I see an easy end to this, they definitely need to get on top of the oxygen situation, its the simplest start to solving the mass deaths.


----------



## bimble (Apr 28, 2021)

I'm a bit upset right now, from reading all this stuff my friend is sending, but really, Sunray, some of your posts about India (so Other so exotic!) strike me as extremely inappropraite and also just pretty stupid, right now.
For instance "some of the help that needs to go out there would be to record accurate statistics' is just nonsensical for so many reasons.
The ten times official figures guess sounds fairly reasonable but also impossible, in realistic terms, to do anything about, even if you sent loads of westerners over there, with special English clipboards, to try to find every bed in every village where some dalit had died recently in his bed, two days walk from a hospital.  It's just not a thing that can happen.


----------



## johnwesley (Apr 28, 2021)

elbows said:


> I do regret not being able to keep up with the pandemic in very many countries.
> 
> Thailand is giving me some cause for concern due to rising cases there. And I see their PM has been fined for not wearing a mask!
> 
> ...


Andrew Macgregor Marshall the 'dissident' ex Reuters Bureau Chief in Bangkok has a comprehensive and perceptive view of where they are. It seems like they fiddled the figures with a weaker variant and the emergence of the Kent variant is pushing that narrative to breaking. 









						Government under fire as incompetent virus response risks economic disaster
					

Also in this edition: Mounting concerns about hunger striking activists, and a respected academic faces being thrown out of Thailand




					secretsiam.news


----------



## Sunray (Apr 28, 2021)

bimble said:


> I'm a bit upset right now, from reading all this stuff my friend is sending, but really, Sunray, some of your posts about India (so Other so exotic!) strike me as extremely inappropraite and also just pretty stupid, right now.
> For instance "some of the help that needs to go out there would be to record accurate statistics' is just nonsensical for so many reasons.
> The ten times official figures guess sounds fairly reasonable but also impossible, in realistic terms, to do anything about, even if you sent loads of westerners over there, with special English clipboards, to try to find every bed in every village where some dalit had died recently in his bed, two days walk from a hospital.  It's just not a thing that can happen.



I've lived in India for 6 months.. I love India and Indian people, it's an incredible country to live in.  What I am watching is upsetting. I can do nothing to help.

But the statistics on the pandemic are just not really being recorded.  It sounds like they aren't really needed but they are incredibly important.  It's a huge country with 1.4 billion people. Without knowing where help is needed how can you maximise any help you are going to provide, randomly pick a hostpital? Without knowing why people are dying, how can you try to stop them from dying?  Why is this nonsensical?  It's fundamental knowledge to tackling the pandemic in India.

More information here Dr John on India and other things


----------



## bimble (Apr 28, 2021)

Er. Okay. Let’s just not, your idea that foreign help is needed to go over there & collect stats is what I was talking about. It’s stupid.I have spent a lot of time in India too, over the years, and my work means I get to hear what’s going on from people at several NGOs there.


----------



## johnwesley (Apr 28, 2021)

The FT are estimating that the death toll might be up to 8 x official estimates - a million people.

www.ft.com/content/683914a3-134f-40b6-989b-21e0ba1dc403


----------



## elbows (Apr 28, 2021)

Sunray said:


> I've lived in India for 6 months.. I love India and Indian people, it's an incredible country to live in.  What I am watching is upsetting. I can do nothing to help.
> 
> But the statistics on the pandemic are just not really being recorded.  It sounds like they aren't really needed but they are incredibly important.  It's a huge country with 1.4 billion people. Without knowing where help is needed how can you maximise any help you are going to provide, randomly pick a hostpital? Without knowing why people are dying, how can you try to stop them from dying?  Why is this nonsensical?  It's fundamental knowledge to tackling the pandemic in India.
> 
> More information here Dr John on India and other things



You dont really need the detailed clinal studies by age and other risk factors to deal with the acute stage of a massive wave of hospital admissions.

A lot of the UK data we have now took a long time to come through, and some of the clinical picture, risk factors etc emerged with data gathered over the course of the first wave, it wasnt available in advance of our most difficult first wave period.

The data required in order to know where to direct help is much easier to ascertain, because it will be pretty obvious on the ground which hospitals are overwhelmed, where oxygen is needed etc. Thats quite different stuff to gathering the sort of data required to tell us if a particular outbreak, variant etc is showing a different age pattern.

When it comes to things like pandemic death statistics, India is not a country I would expect to have captured that picture very fully at any stage. But when it comes to some other aspects of public health, countries with 'old fashioned' health resoures were in some ways actually better placed to deal with certain aspects of infectious disease than certain 'modern' healthcare systems and approaches to public health. For example some of the UK fuckups at coping with this disease were due to a total lack of 'boots on the ground' approach to public health resources, most obviously when it came to contact tracing but really in some other areas too. However any gains on that front where the 'less developed' systems already had boots on the ground as part of their norm, dont really help when the wave has been allowed to grow very large. Systems of all levels of sophistication cant hope to cope in those circumstances, much of the detail goes out of the window and it becomes more like emergency fire fighting.


----------



## kabbes (Apr 28, 2021)

johnwesley said:


> The FT are estimating that the death toll might be up to 8 x official estimates - a million people.
> 
> www.ft.com/content/683914a3-134f-40b6-989b-21e0ba1dc403


Which puts into context just how terribly the UK has managed this disaster, because even a million dead (what a thing to have to write!)  would still mean that India has a lower overall death rate than we do.


----------



## Sunray (Apr 28, 2021)

Made me think of this.  I refer everyone to Eddie Izzard (2.21) Funny because its true


----------



## elbows (Apr 28, 2021)

The most recent WHO report unsurprisingly didnt really have many answers.



> In India, heterogeneity in B.1.617 geographic distribution is observed across regions, with co-circulation of other VOCs (including VOC 202012/01 and 501Y.V2) and other variants (e.g., B.1.618), which collectively may be playing a role in the current resurgence in this country. Indeed, studies have highlighted that the spread of the second wave has been much faster than the first. Preliminary modelling by WHO based on sequences submitted to GISAID suggest that B.1.617 has a higher growth rate than other circulating variants in India, suggesting potential increased transmissibility, with other co-circulating variants also demonstrating increased transmissibility. Other drivers may include challenges around the implementation and adherence to public health and social measures (PHSM), and social gatherings (including mass gatherings during cultural and religious celebrations, and elections). Further investigation is needed to understand the relative contribution of these factors.
> 
> It remains unclear how generalizable laboratory-based studies of limited sample sizes, as well as studies of other variants with similar key mutations, are to the wider circulating B.1.617 variants. Further robust studies into the phenotypic impacts of these variants, including impacts on epidemiological characteristics (transmissibility, severity, reinfection risk, etc.) and impact on countermeasures, are urgently needed.



From Weekly epidemiological update on COVID-19 - 27 April 2021


----------



## bimble (Apr 29, 2021)

This, full of rage and humanity, is really good, on whats happening in India. 








						Arundhati Roy on India’s Covid catastrophe: ‘We are witnessing a crime against humanity’
					

The long read: It’s hard to convey the full depth and range of the trauma, the chaos and the indignity that people are being subjected to. Meanwhile, Modi and his allies are telling us not to complain




					www.theguardian.com
				




Its not a statistics piece but mentions in passing (& without attribution) that if you just count funerals, in villages as well as the cities, it might be best to think of the death rate at around 30 times official figures.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 29, 2021)

I came to post that, blimey it was a hard read, so depressing.  



> The number of Covid-protocol funerals from graveyards and crematoriums in small towns and cities suggest a death toll up to 30 times higher than the official count. Doctors who are working outside the metropolitan areas can tell you how it is.
> 
> If Delhi is breaking down, what should we imagine is happening in villages in Bihar, in Uttar Pradesh, in Madhya Pradesh? Where tens of millions of workers from the cities, carrying the virus with them, are fleeing home to their families, traumatised by their memory of Modi’s national lockdown in 2020. It was the strictest lockdown in the world, announced with only four hours’ notice. It left migrant workers stranded in cities with no work, no money to pay their rent, no food and no transport. Many had to walk hundreds of miles to their homes in far-flung villages. Hundreds died on the way.
> 
> Early this morning, on 28 April, news came that our friend Prabhubhai has died. Before he died, he showed classic Covid symptoms. But his death will not register in the official Covid count because he died at home without a test or treatment.


----------



## bimble (Apr 29, 2021)

yes. the migrant workers, the poorest of which are also least likely to show up on any government statistics or get any government help whatsoever for reasons of hindu nationalist political shit.


----------



## magneze (Apr 29, 2021)

Meanwhile as people take to social media to call for Modi to resign, Facebook censors those posts.









						What is it with Facebook and screwing democracies? Now calls for Prime Minister Modi to resign censored in India
					

#ResignModi posts hidden amid heartbreaking COVID-19 crisis




					www.theregister.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 29, 2021)

magneze said:


> Meanwhile as people take to social media to call for Modi to resign, Facebook censors those posts.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yeah, twitter has been doing the same, it's a fucking disgrace.


----------



## Flavour (Apr 29, 2021)

Italy claims to have contained the handful of cases of the Indian variant but not sure I believe that nor will it matter if the Indian variant is at large in other European countries while the borders are open









						Indian COVID variant detected in at least seven European nations: ECDC
					

According to data obtained by Euronews from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), the B.1.617 variant has been detected in seven European countries.




					www.euronews.com


----------



## bimble (Apr 29, 2021)

If anyone feels like doing a small something, there's loads of crisis appeals for India going on but these people here, I can vouch for them 100%, have been & met their local partner organisations in India, seen who they are and what they do, they are excellent, and courageous, and they focus on the people at the sharpest end.




__





						Coronavirus Crisis
					

With rates of COVID-19 infections increasing rapidly in India and Nepal, so too is an increase in violence, discrimination, hunger and unemployment.




					www.karuna.org
				




This is the local org they work with (you can't send money directly to any indian charity as the recent goverment crackdown on NGOs has made that impossible )




__





						Covid-19 | Jan Sahas
					






					jansahas.org


----------



## bimble (Apr 29, 2021)

ducking hell, no vaccinations at all in Mumbai for the next 3 days because they've run out. 
To find this sort of news you have to scroll past loads and loads of crap about the elections.


----------



## sparkybird (Apr 29, 2021)

The vaccine shortage was mentioned on the BBC news. The situation is so shocking. I hope your friends are doing ok.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 29, 2021)

bimble said:


> This, full of rage and humanity, is really good, on whats happening in India.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



  

I didn't have time to read that (must-read) 'long read' today, but it's going to be my *no.1 priority* read tomorrow.

It's going to be tough, but it looks like the contents are going to be essential to know


----------



## bimble (Apr 30, 2021)

sparkybird said:


> The vaccine shortage was mentioned on the BBC news. The situation is so shocking. I hope your friends are doing ok.


Indian newspapers i meant, putting covid way down underneath local election triumphs etc.


----------



## sparkybird (Apr 30, 2021)

bimble said:


> Indian newspapers i meant, putting covid way down underneath local election triumphs etc.


Ah sorry, yes of course. Modi cut from the same cloth as Trump, Johnson, AMLO, Bolsonaro. What's going on with the world?


----------



## ska invita (Apr 30, 2021)

Sorry, not been keeping up, are current vaccines effective against the Indian variant?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 30, 2021)

ska invita said:


> Sorry, not been keeping up, are current vaccines effective against the Indian variant?



Early studies seem to suggest they will be effective enough to prevent severe symptoms, and there's this statement too...



> BioNTech’s chief executive has said he is confident the Covid-19 vaccine his company pioneered with Pfizer will work against a new variant circulating in India, where health officials are recording hundreds of thousands of new coronavirus cases a day.
> 
> BioNTech says it has investigated more than 30 variants of the virus, including the latest mutation from India. That new variant, known as B.1.617, “has mutations that we have already studied and against which our vaccine is effective”, said Sahin, adding that it left him confident the vaccine would still work.







__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com


----------



## Supine (Apr 30, 2021)

ska invita said:


> Sorry, not been keeping up, are current vaccines effective against the Indian variant?



Yes - it’s looking like it is


----------



## StoneRoad (Apr 30, 2021)

Bit C&P from the beeb today ... 

[Posted at 7:297:29
*Kenya's anti-vaccine doctor dies of Covid-19*





Rhoda Odhiambo
BBC health reporter, Nairobi]

A_ prominent Kenyan doctor and conspiracy theorist who became a campaigner against coronavirus vaccines has died from the disease.

Dr Stephen Karanja said it was unnecessary to vaccinate Kenyans against Covid-19.

Instead, he argued for steam inhalation and a cocktail of drugs, including hydroxychloroquine and zinc.

He also spread conspiracy theories, involving Bill Gates and population control.

Dr Karanja died on Thursday in the high dependency unit of a private hospital in the capital, Nairobi.

More than 800,000 Kenyans have now been vaccinated, with no severe side effects being reported.

Before his death, Dr Karanja was the chair of the Catholic Doctors Association, which described him “as a true medical soldier”.
_
Although I'm sort of sorry for his family (assuming he had one) I'm not sorry that someone in such an influential position has ceased to be able to add the existing pool of disinformation they were spreading.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Apr 30, 2021)

What a twat.


----------



## Sunray (Apr 30, 2021)

Just learned there were 44 per million cases of Portal vein thrombosis (PVT Portal vein thrombosis - Wikipedia) with the Pfizer vaccine in the USA.
Isn't this newsworthy? Or did I just miss it?
The J&J was suspended with a 1 per 1.8 million of the clotting thing.


----------



## weltweit (May 1, 2021)

Sunray said:


> Just learned there were 44 per million cases of Portal vein thrombosis (PVT Portal vein thrombosis - Wikipedia) with the Pfizer vaccine in the USA.
> Isn't this newsworthy? Or did I just miss it?
> The J&J was suspended with a 1 per 1.8 million of the clotting thing.


Sunray do you have a link?


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 1, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> There was almost 350k new cases reported yesterday.



Just one week on, and despite a shortage of tests & therefore testing, they reported just over 402k new cases reported yesterday.   

I read an article the other day that the true figure is likely to be between 5 & 10 times what is being reported.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 1, 2021)

With all the shock & horror of the situation in India, South America has dropped down the news agenda, but blimey are things grim there too.  



> It’s the league nowhere wants to top: where Covid-19 is hitting hardest.
> 
> But while the horrendous crisis in India has been rightly leading the news this week, many countries across South America are in a similarly catastrophic position.
> 
> Last week, the Americas region - including the US as well as South America - accounted for 41 per cent of all Covid-19 deaths reported to the World Health Organisation (WHO), or 36,530 of 88,272 deaths. For context, the region represents roughly 13 per cent of the world’s population.





> The numbers for this week may change the picture, but they are unlikely to improve it; and some analyses go even further._ The New York Times_ suggested that South America alone - representing about 8 per cent of the world's population - accounted for 35 per cent of all Covid-19 deaths last week.
> 
> Brazil accounts for a big share of those tragic numbers, and its disaster has been well documented: 14 million cases, more than 400,000 deaths, and a president who is famed for dismissing the pandemic as “the sniffles”.



Brazil has over taken the UK on deaths per million, and are averaging 2,523 a day, adjusted for population, that's equal to just over 800 a day in the UK, and their fuckwit president dismisses it as just “the sniffles”. 









						South America drowning under new Covid surge as deaths outstrip other regions
					

India’s crisis is grabbing headlines - but the situation in South America is desperate too, accounting for 41 per cent of deaths last week




					www.telegraph.co.uk


----------



## The39thStep (May 1, 2021)

State of emergency ended at midnight last night and the state of calamity starts. today. Restaurants and bars open inside a maximum of ten at a table,  shopping malls open till &pm , supermarkets etc open until 9pm , baptisms and weddings at 50% of venue capacityand borders begin to open aside from India. Masks and social distancing still apply . There are still some regional differences but these are based on council areas rather than counties. Yesterday no deaths reported this is only the third time this has happened since the pandemic began. Vaccines for the over 65s began a week ago.


----------



## Flavour (May 1, 2021)

I give it 4 to 6 weeks before Portugal, Italy and others are reimposing the restrictions lifted in recent days. Its so obviously premature. And they're partly doing it because US/UK are - but US and UK have vaccinated over half their populations already


----------



## magneze (May 1, 2021)

Sound a bit like what the UK did back in December after the second half assed lockdown. The restrictions came off way too soon.


----------



## The39thStep (May 1, 2021)

Flavour said:


> I give it 4 to 6 weeks before Portugal, Italy and others are reimposing the restrictions lifted in recent days. Its so obviously premature. And they're partly doing it because US/UK are - but US and UK have vaccinated over half their populations already


I'm not sure about Portugal being influenced by either the US or the UK, to be honest. The speculation was that tourism wouldn't be viable until late summer so there is little industry or public expectation about a turn around on that.  The news this morning was full of dire warning about opening up the Spanish border even though it's been open for good and work during confinement. 
The Portuguese situation is a lot healthier than Italy's . The projection for Portugal is that the national rate should reach under 60 per thousand population within 2 /3weeks and 'herd immunity by summer. Vaccine rollout is getting faster as production capacity is increase.  The main debate isn't that the deconfinement programme is too fast it's that the government didn't confine quick enough over the December period. The govt has said that it will impose local restrictions where necessary. There are some localities that haven't moved into the deconfinement phase ie Portimao  and where I am we stayed in level 2 for three weeks longer than the other areas. If it's managed properly on a local basis then there is room for cautious optimism. Obviously where we will be in the autumn is anyones guess.


----------



## bimble (May 1, 2021)

I think most people here feel that this country has been ridiculously slack in terms of using border controls but what Australia is doing now seems so extreme I’m surprised it’s even legal ? 









						Covid crisis: Australians trying to return home from India face up to $66,000 fine or five years’ jail
					

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg defends Coalition’s move as ‘drastic’ but needed




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (May 1, 2021)

bimble said:


> I think most people here feel that this country has been ridiculously slack in terms of using border controls but what Australia is doing now seems so extreme I’m surprised it’s even legal ?
> 
> 
> 
> ...


yes was reading thsi earlier, a bit over extreme considering anyone returning has to pay for their quarantine.


----------



## Sasaferrato (May 1, 2021)

Sunray said:


> Just learned there were 44 per million cases of Portal vein thrombosis (PVT Portal vein thrombosis - Wikipedia) with the Pfizer vaccine in the USA.
> Isn't this newsworthy? Or did I just miss it?
> The J&J was suspended with a 1 per 1.8 million of the clotting thing.



When you are dealing with such minute numbers, it is difficult to separate natural occurrences from vaccine induced.


----------



## glitch hiker (May 1, 2021)

America, the stupid:


----------



## MJ100 (May 1, 2021)

The way Australia have treated their own citizens abroad this past year has been nothing short of shameful. I guess they completely forgot that their first duty as a national government is to their own citizens, wherever they might be in the world. Still fine for Tom Hanks and American sports teams to visit the country freely though, as well as their own cricketers to go abroad to play in the IPL, but fuck you if you're an Aussie who wants to go home, we're just abandoning you to your fate.


----------



## weltweit (May 1, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> The way Australia have treated their own citizens abroad this past year has been nothing short of shameful. I guess they completely forgot that their first duty as a national government is to their own citizens, wherever they might be in the world. Still fine for Tom Hanks and American sports teams to visit the country freely though, as well as their own cricketers to go abroad to play in the IPL, but fuck you if you're an Aussie who wants to go home, we're just abandoning you to your fate.


Can't you fly in and go into quarrantine?


----------



## bimble (May 2, 2021)

weltweit said:


> Can't you fly in and go into quarrantine?


No. If you are an Australian in India you cant go home, at all, if you try you risk a prison sentence.
Legal challenge incoming it seems: Australia’s ban on travellers returning from India due to Covid crisis may be unlawful


----------



## bimble (May 2, 2021)

This is pretty good, an attempt to grapple with the underreporting in India, the journalist seems to have phoned around speaking to crematorium managers asking them what its like compared to normal








						Australia’s ban on travellers returning from India due to Covid crisis may be unlawful
					

Lawyers and academics say ban an ‘extraordinary precedent’ that could be open to multiple challenges




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## MJ100 (May 2, 2021)

weltweit said:


> Can't you fly in and go into quarrantine?



Not from India since they introduced that rule a couple of days ago. They have hotel quarantine for incoming passengers but they have low numbers that they allow in each week, while tens of thousands of their own citizens are still stuck abroad without any repatriation flights from the air force and without sufficient passenger capacity or money to come home on commercial flights. Aussies abroad have been let down badly by their government over the last year.









						Australians stuck overseas 'abandoned' by their own country
					

Australians in India are the latest group to feel abandoned by their government amid virus fears.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Here's a decent BBC article that explains it in more detail (and has a nice wall of celebrity faces who they've allowed in while ignoring their own citizens).


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 2, 2021)

bimble said:


> This is pretty good, an attempt to grapple with the underreporting in India, the journalist seems to have phoned around speaking to crematorium managers asking them what its like compared to normal
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I assume this is the link you meant to link?



> According to official statistics, Muzaffarnagar had just *10 Covid deaths over four day*s in late April. However, Ajay Kumar Agarwal, president of Muzaffarnagar’s city crematorium, said this was not even close to the scale of bodies he was handling.
> 
> “In normal times, we were cremating three bodies a day, but in the past 10 days it has increased,” he said. “*One day it was 18, another day it was 20, then 22, and one day 25. In the past 10 days*, we haven’t had any less than 12 bodies a day– 90% of them corona deaths.”
> 
> With only seven pyres in Muzaffarnagar’s city crematorium, Agarwal said they were so overwhelmed they were having to cremate the bodies on open ground, and send some to another crematorium 20 miles away. “The situation here is pathetic,” he said,



Taking the figures for those 4 days, 85 minus the 12 they would expect, leaves 73 covid deaths rather than the official figure of 10.   









						‘We’re burning pyres all day’: India accused of undercounting deaths
					

Fears of cover-up as crematoriums record twice the number of Covid fatalities as official death toll




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## bimble (May 2, 2021)

cupid_stunt oops yes.


----------



## bimble (May 2, 2021)

In normal times, poor families sometimes have to take out loans at terrible rates of interest, to afford a funeral, not just the ritual but the actual wood for the pyre is really expensive, even in normal times. Can you imagine how that is now, the cost of wood must be through the roof. Very minor sounding but will be long term significantly crippling for poorest families.

eta yup. Delhi: Pushed to the limit, crematoria staring at acute wood shortage | Delhi News - Times of India


----------



## LDC (May 2, 2021)

Sunray said:


> Just learned there were 44 per million cases of Portal vein thrombosis (PVT Portal vein thrombosis - Wikipedia) with the Pfizer vaccine in the USA.
> Isn't this newsworthy? Or did I just miss it?
> The J&J was suspended with a 1 per 1.8 million of the clotting thing.



Have you got a reliable source for that Sunray ?


----------



## glitch hiker (May 2, 2021)

MJ100 said:


> The way Australia have treated their own citizens abroad this past year has been nothing short of shameful. I guess they completely forgot that their* first duty as a national government is to their own citizens*, wherever they might be in the world. Still fine for Tom Hanks and American sports teams to visit the country freely though, as well as their own cricketers to go abroad to play in the IPL, but fuck you if you're an Aussie who wants to go home, we're just abandoning you to your fate.


I think most people forget that it isn't


----------



## Buddy Bradley (May 2, 2021)

Sunray said:


> Just learned there were 44 per million cases of Portal vein thrombosis (PVT Portal vein thrombosis - Wikipedia) with the Pfizer vaccine in the USA.
> Isn't this newsworthy? Or did I just miss it?


There is literally no mention of this on the internet. Did you learn it from Facebook?


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 2, 2021)

Buddy Bradley said:


> There is literally no mention of this on the internet. Did you learn it from Facebook?



There is this tweet -



I wouldn't trust the source of the tweet, but they are claiming that their source is a Oxford University study, but I can't find that study.


----------



## LDC (May 2, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> There is this tweet -
> 
> 
> 
> I wouldn't trust the source of the tweet, but they are claiming that their source is a Oxford University study, but I can't find that study.




The only place I can find it is Sputnik and RT. Surprise, surprise. People should not be posting claims like that without a reliable source imo.


----------



## magneze (May 2, 2021)

It's in a later tweet COVID-19 and cerebral venous thrombosis: a retrospective cohort study of 513,284 confirmed COVID-19 cases


----------



## fishfinger (May 2, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> There is this tweet -
> 
> 
> 
> I wouldn't trust the source of the tweet, but they are claiming that their source is a Oxford University study, but I can't find that study.



I found this, which references an unpublished and non-peer reviewed study:

expert reaction to preprint looking at incidence of rare cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) following COVID-19 infection compared to incidence after vaccination or influenza | Science Media Centre

I'm too dumb to understand it.


----------



## platinumsage (May 2, 2021)

magneze said:


> It's in a later tweet COVID-19 and cerebral venous thrombosis: a retrospective cohort study of 513,284 confirmed COVID-19 cases



Tnis is why you shouldn’t trust Russian government twitter propaganda:


----------



## magneze (May 2, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> Tnis is why you shouldn’t trust Russian government twitter propaganda:
> 
> View attachment 265973


I don't, just found the link 🙂


----------



## Sasaferrato (May 2, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> I assume this is the link you meant to link?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Modi is a dangerous man. His hubris is killing people.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 3, 2021)

Cases have exploded in Nepal now, cases up over 4,500 daily average, from just 136 a month ago, over 7,000 yesterday and nearly 40 per cent of people tested returned a positive result.   



> The seven-day average of new daily cases in Nepal rose to 4,544 on May 1 — up from just 136 at the start of April.
> 
> The surge in infections last week prompted the government to impose new lockdowns in major cities and towns, restricting the movement of people and vehicles and shuttering markets, offices and schools. Tens of thousands of people rushed out of Kathmandu to avoid the 15-day shutdown that began on Thursday.
> 
> On Sunday, the Himalayan nation recorded 7,137 new cases, a record high. Nearly 40 per cent of people tested returned a positive result, data from the ministry showed.











						Indian double-mutant COVID strain found in neighbouring Nepal as cases explode
					

Coronavirus cases in Nepal reach a new high as tens of thousands of Nepalese migrant workers in India fearing the collapse of the health system there return home across the 1,800-kilometre open border.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 3, 2021)

I've seen the odd report over the last few months, but I am surprised there hasn't been much more coverage of how bad things have been in Eastern European countries.

They virtually missed the first wave in spring last year, but clearly they have taken a big hit over the winter months, I was shocked at the deaths per million, when I just looked on Worldometers.


----------



## spring-peeper (May 4, 2021)

Here is a picture of a fb friend of a playdate at a park in Ottawa, Canada.




Our most recent lockdown included children's playground.
Our premier, Doug Ford, quickly reversed that.

Golfing is still forbidden here... and tennis.....
It was quickly reversed.


----------



## elbows (May 4, 2021)

Teaboy said:


> In India they've been cracking on with the IPL
> 
> For those that don't know the IPL is an Indian cricket tournament which is the richest and biggest in the world and has stars from all over the world playing.



A very predictable end to that:









						IPL suspended after more Covid-19 cases
					

The Indian Premier League is suspended after an increase in coronavirus cases among players.




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## William of Walworth (May 4, 2021)

Hannah Ellis-Petersen in The Guardian has been pretty damned good with her India reports in recent weeks -- with graphic, hard-to-read reporting at times 

This piece mainly analyses how you manage to do reporting/journalism amongst such horrific conditions  , but she does not hold back at all on how awful she's seen events be 

More analysis by H E-P of vaccine shortages

And Amrit Dhillon in Delhi, Hannah's colleague, does not hold back with this Doctor's experience of oxygen shortages either


----------



## jontz01 (May 5, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> yes was reading thsi earlier, a bit over extreme considering anyone returning has to pay for their quarantine.



I dunno, someone's got to pay for it.

Same rules apply here in NZ. Else I'd jump on a plane to UK right now to catch up with family.. Now I have to be sure we can afford to get back here once we get sick of England.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (May 5, 2021)

Don't know if this has been posted, but it's deeply sad.


----------



## Yossarian (May 5, 2021)

I was surprised to read that one of the world's most vaccinated countries is seeing a spike in COVID cases, until I saw the word "Sinopharm."









						Seychelles brings back curbs despite vaccination success
					

A third of the active cases in the country involve people who have had two vaccine doses.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 5, 2021)

Yeah, Sinopharm does seem somewhat shit.


----------



## Supine (May 5, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> I was surprised to read that one of the world's most vaccinated countries is seeing a spike in COVID cases, until I saw the word "Sinopharm."
> 
> 
> 
> ...



it doesn’t say anything about severity and 40% of vaccines given were AZ.


----------



## bimble (May 5, 2021)

Some actual good news


----------



## teqniq (May 6, 2021)

Yup that is good news, but not for some.....



Where is my tiny violin?


----------



## Teaboy (May 6, 2021)

Supine said:


> it doesn’t say anything about severity and 40% of vaccines given were AZ.



Yes after the situation in Chile its clear things like this are interesting but obviously require much more interpretation as to draw any real conclusions from.


----------



## William of Walworth (May 6, 2021)

If Biden/Harris ae backing the waiver of intellectual property rights for vaccines, and share prices in the big companies have fallen in consequence, can I take it that the change will go ahead?

Or are things more complicated than that?? As in how long will these 'WTO negotiations' take?


----------



## William of Walworth (May 6, 2021)

But I now find that there's a lot more detail (including a really informative FT article posted by ska invita ), at the end if the 'Vaccine nationalism' thread


----------



## Jeff Robinson (May 7, 2021)

The Neo-Hitlerite Merkel regime would rather millions died of COVID than poor little BioNTech have their intellectual property rights infringed. Vile fascist cunt and her gang of murderous neo-liberal technocrats. 









						US-Germany rift as Berlin opposes plan to ditch Covid vaccine patents
					

Germany says waiver would inhibit private sector research as opposition to Biden plan threatens to deadlock WTO talks




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## William of Walworth (May 8, 2021)

Was too annoyed (even by just the headline), to read that article yesterday 

Will soon, but I'm still


----------



## alex_ (May 8, 2021)

Jeff Robinson said:


> The Neo-Hitlerite merkel regime



feel free to tell us when they kill millions and invade Poland and Czechoslovakia.


----------



## Jeff Robinson (May 8, 2021)

alex_ said:


> feel free to tell us when they kill millions and invade Poland and Czechoslovakia.



The neo-liberal global capitalism the Merkel clique support kills millions every year. See also the 'fiscal waterboarding' imposed on Greece by the Merkel clique and fellow EU apparatchiks.


----------



## MJ100 (May 8, 2021)

Whereas the Marxism you seem to support has given us nothing but flowers and cute puppies for the last century or so, presumably.


----------



## Aladdin (May 9, 2021)

The virus is an airborne threat, the C.D.C. acknowledges. (Published 2021)
					

The new focus underscores the need for the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration to issue standards for employers to address potential hazards in the workplace, multiple experts say.




					www.google.com
				




So it has taken til now  for the CDC in the US to recognise this?? I thought this was known already?


----------



## Mr.Bishie (May 9, 2021)

Street parties celebrate end of Spain's state of emergency
					

BARCELONA, Spain (AP) — Impromptu street celebrations erupted across Spain as the clock struck midnight on Saturday, when a six-month-long national state of emergency to contain the spread of coronavirus ended and many nighttime curfews were lifted...




					apnews.com


----------



## elbows (May 9, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> The virus is an airborne threat, the C.D.C. acknowledges. (Published 2021)
> 
> 
> The new focus underscores the need for the federal Occupational Safety and Health Administration to issue standards for employers to address potential hazards in the workplace, multiple experts say.
> ...



This was an incredibly common area of bullshit and all manner of authorities dragged their heels as much as possible in terms of fully acknowledging this aspect. Largely because of the implications, they didnt like the impact that such a mode of transmission has on the rules and guidelines. The UK was slow on this stuff, not as slow as the USA but I expect if I study the detail then the UK acknowledgement of this still has its limits, and that aspects of our 'covid secure' guidance are nonsense when this stuff is properly considered. I've forgotten exactly when the UK started making ventilation part of its public health messaging, but it took a criminal amount of time to do so.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 10, 2021)

More depressing news from India, doctors are now being threaten with arrest for putting out appeals for oxygen.   



> A small private hospital in India's most populous state is being charged under the National Security Act for sounding the alarm over a lack of oxygen.
> 
> The director of the Sun Hospital in Lucknow in Uttar Pradesh told Sky News he faced being arrested at any time and his business seized after the police laid charges against him.
> 
> ...











						COVID-19: Police raid Indian hospital and accuse doctors of 'false scaremongering' over low oxygen supplies
					

Four patients died in one day when oxygen ran out at the small hospital, in what it labelled a "never-ending nightmare".




					news.sky.com


----------



## brogdale (May 10, 2021)

Vaccination rate in EU (per 100 population) now exceeds UK & US.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 10, 2021)

Their daily rate has recently exceeded the UK & US, but they still have a lot of catching up to do, on total numbers vaccinated.


----------



## Teaboy (May 10, 2021)

1st doses as well.  The numbers always seem to tail off when having to do both doses.


----------



## brogdale (May 10, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Their daily rate has recently exceeded the UK & US, but they still have a lot of catching up to do, on total numbers vaccinated.


On yes, but the 'lumpy' nature of our delivery has certainly hit one of the troughs.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 11, 2021)

What unfolded in India is now unfolding in Nepal, hospitals are full and they are struggling to get oxygen supplies, only 1% of the population has been vaccinated, there's a lack of testing, but 44% of tests actually carried out are positive.   



> There are no hospital beds available, even for doctors and their families. Covid has exposed everybody’s vulnerability, except our leaders. Hospitals have run out of oxygen, and desperate calls on social media appealing for healthcare fill everyone’s feeds. Oxford University’s data tracking site shows a staggering 668% increase in confirmed Covid cases in the two weeks to 1 May, compared with the previous fortnight. On that day, the Red Cross reported that, nationally, 44% of all tests were positive.
> 
> There are fewer than 600 ventilators for the entire country. The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicts that Nepal will need well over 10,000 ventilators by 24 May. Health officials confirm that the resources to operate ventilators are equally limited. “Even if we have the ventilators, what can we do without oxygen?” said one official, as his phone kept ringing with pleas for more oxygen. My social media feed is also full of calls for ICU beds and the therapeutic drug Remdesivir.



And, another prick as PM, who has been telling Nepalis to manage Covid with herbal remedies such as turmeric water or guava leaf tea  









						Nepal says its Covid response is under control – everyone can see it’s not true
					

I’ve watched from the UK as family and friends share increasingly desperate news. Nepal’s leaders have ensured the lack of preparation




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Nikkormat (May 11, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> What unfolded in India is now unfolding in Nepal, hospitals are full and they are struggling to get oxygen supplies, only 1% of the population has been vaccinated, there's a lack of testing, but 44% of tests actually carried out are positive.



No shortage of oxygen cylinders for scum expedition companies taking tourists up Everest: OPINION: Everest and COVID-19: What's going on and should they still be climbing?

_"There have been calls for the season to be cancelled, and for expeditions to donate their oxygen to hospitals in Kathmandu where it is badly needed. Understandably, many clients who have paid $60,000 USD for an expedition do not want their operators to do that."_


----------



## Flavour (May 12, 2021)

if the surge in india does not abate and the deaths are as under-reported as many suspect, we're looking at a death toll in the millions for india alone within a scarily short space of time


----------



## elbows (May 12, 2021)

Since I ranted a fair bit in the early days about shortcomings, as well as making some mistakes of my own, I feel like I might be at a bit of a loss for words when it comes to covering the same ground with the benefit of hindsight. But I suppose I will still point out this sort of analysis when it emerges:



> The panel, set up by the World Health Organization, said the combined response of the WHO and global governments was a "toxic cocktail".
> 
> The WHO should have declared a global emergency earlier than it did, its report said, adding that without urgent change the world was vulnerable to another major disease outbreak.











						Covid: Serious failures in WHO and global response, report finds
					

An independent review calls the international response to the pandemic a "toxic cocktail".



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (May 12, 2021)

For example a long time before I got into disagreements with a few people about whether it was appropriate that I'd started to call it a bad pandemic unfolding before our eyes, there were other clear failures in response. I got as far as going back to see when I was making a red dwarf alert bulb changing joke in regards WHO failing to declare it a public health emergency of international concern, and it was January 24th 2020!            #66        

Not that I had great data back then, and I still cringe when I read myself entertaining the possibility that disease severity might not be as bad as some were concerned it was, due to distortions in available data during the early period.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 13, 2021)

Due to the lack of wood needed for cremations, and/or cost of it, it seems people are dumping bodies in rivers, in India.   



> Officials in Covid-ravaged India have erected a net across the Ganges after dozens of bodies of suspected coronavirus patients washed up.
> 
> Seventy-one corpses were said to have been found in Bihar, north-east India, sparking fears that the virus is raging in the country's rural areas.
> 
> ...











						India 'installs net across the Ganges' as dozens more Covid patients wash up
					

WARNING: DISTRESSING IMAGES - 71 corpses were said to have been found in Bihar, north east India, sparking fears coronavirus was raging in the country's rural areas




					www.mirror.co.uk


----------



## Aladdin (May 13, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Their daily rate has recently exceeded the UK & US, but they still have a lot of catching up to do, on total numbers vaccinated.




It's so weird that the UK and EU are now "Us" and "Them"
🙁


----------



## Aladdin (May 14, 2021)

elbows said:


> This was an incredibly common area of bullshit and all manner of authorities dragged their heels as much as possible in terms of fully acknowledging this aspect. Largely because of the implications, they didnt like the impact that such a mode of transmission has on the rules and guidelines. The UK was slow on this stuff, not as slow as the USA but I expect if I study the detail then the UK acknowledgement of this still has its limits, and that aspects of our 'covid secure' guidance are nonsense when this stuff is properly considered. I've forgotten exactly when the UK started making ventilation part of its public health messaging, but it took a criminal amount of time to do so.




It is flabbergasting how slow they were to officially recognise airborne transmission.


----------



## bimble (May 14, 2021)

There have been 7m-13m excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic
					

The rich world suffered relatively badly, but most of the dying has been elsewhere




					www.economist.com
				




extract - "We estimate that, by May 10th, there was a 95% probability that the pandemic had brought about between 2.4m and 7.1m excess deaths in Asia (official covid-19 deaths: 0.6m).."










						How we estimated the true death toll of the pandemic
					

Dealing with potential outcomes, known unknowns, and uncertainty




					www.economist.com


----------



## bimble (May 14, 2021)

Absolutely fucking insane, this is the official account of India’s ruling party. This is what they are doing right now. Deflect deny lie & do your best to blame Muslims.


----------



## William of Walworth (May 14, 2021)

Too muxh (BJP!  ) 'information' there for me to want to read all the detail very much 

But I can't believe that there hasn't been someone smart, qualified and on-the-case enough, to write a detailed contradiction, with facts etc.,  of all those points in turn.

Let's hope so!


----------



## Supine (May 14, 2021)

I lost faith in the Indian government when I listened to an interview where they said there was no shortage of oxygen. He explained it was in the air all around them and they just needed to put it into cylinders


----------



## bimble (May 14, 2021)

Supine said:


> I lost faith in the Indian government when I listened to an interview where they said there was no shortage of oxygen. He explained it was in the air all around them and they just needed to put it into cylinders


It is weird hating the politicians so far away much more than our own but yeah. This lot in power there now and for last few years are stinkers of the first degree, and full of malice.


----------



## Badgers (May 15, 2021)

__





						Turkish tourism video taken down after online outcry
					

Get the latest breaking news and headlines from the largest Arab News website. Get world news, sport news, business news, entertainment, lifestyle, video and photos.




					www.arabnews.com
				






> A video promoting tourism in Turkey amid the pandemic has caused an uproar on social media for showing tourism employees wearing masks that read “Enjoy, I’m vaccinated.”
> 
> The video, in English, was published Thursday on the social media accounts of official travel guide Go Turkiye linked to the country’s tourism ministry and was taken down later that day without explanation.
> 
> It aimed to promote travel to Turkey as a “safe haven” for foreigners and showed unmasked tourists being served in hotels on the Turkish coast.


----------



## LDC (May 15, 2021)

Was chatting to a friend in Australia other day who was telling me they're not expecting their borders to open to normal traffic until mid-2022. She's feeling very trapped and frustrated, partly the lack of being able to go and see family abroad, but also due to how OK most people in Australia are with that, and also how poor vaccine take-up is (she works on vaccination there). Then this was in _The Guardian_ yesterday covering similar ground









						The hermit kingdom: how a proudly multicultural country became ‘fortress Australia’
					

As Covid wreaks havoc overseas Australia risks regressing culturally and economically if borders don’t reopen




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## The39thStep (May 15, 2021)

Portugal opens to tourists on Monday ( providing they have a negative PCR test within 72 hours before the flight ) . Lots of friends of mine starting work at the hotels Monday but expect a steady trickle from outside Portugal rather than a flood to begin with .


The transmissibility index (Rt) of covid-19 rose again. It is 0.95, which means that, on average, each infected person does not pass the disease on to another.
The incidence is in 50.3 cases of infection by Sars-Cov 2 per 100 thousand inhabitants. This, after a day when there were no new fatalities associated with the covid, but there were 450 new cases of infection.

In hospitals, the number of people hospitalized with the disease dropped - minus 8 -, but two more people with covid were admitted to intensive care.

There are now 22 municipalities with more than 120 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants. This is the lowest number of municipalities in the red, at least since November when this information began to be disseminated.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 15, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> It's so weird that the UK and EU are now "Us" and "Them"
> 🙁



Yeah, I am not that keen on it, but when figures are quoted separately for the UK & the EU it's not unreasonable to make comparisons.

Of course, the EU didn't help themselves with throwing their toys out of their pram in their dispute with AZ, making various threats & even imposing a border in Ireland without consulting the British & Irish governments, before doing a massive U-turn the next day.  

The other big gap between the UK & EU is going to be vaccine uptake, with vaccine hesitancy running high in much on the EU, thankfully the Irish seem to be the most sensible on this.  



> People in Ireland are the most willing among European Union member states to take the Covid-19 vaccine, according to a survey released on Thursday.
> 
> Asked about their intentions to take the vaccine 86.5 per cent of those surveyed in Ireland said they were “very likely” (76.6 per cent) or “rather likely” (9.9 per cent) to take the vaccine.
> 
> According to an online survey from Eurofound (138,629 respondents) taken across the EU in February and March, willingness to take the vaccine was also high in Denmark, Malta and Portugal.





> The stated intention to get vaccinated varies considerably across the 27 EU member states, with “an important east-west divide discernible across the union”, the report notes.
> 
> With the exception of Austria and France, the intention to get vaccinated is over 60 per cent for all western member states – with Nordic and Mediterranean countries, Denmark and Ireland having even higher rates – while among eastern member states the rate is dramatically lower, ranging from 59 per cent in Romania to 33 per cent in Bulgaria.



There's been other surveys reporting similar numbers too.  









						People in Ireland most willing in EU to take Covid-19 vaccine, survey
					

Report finds strong association between vaccine hesitancy and social media use




					www.irishtimes.com


----------



## Aladdin (May 15, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Yeah, I am not that keen on it, but when figures are quoted separately for the UK & the EU it's not unreasonable to make comparisons.
> 
> Of course, the EU didn't help themselves with throwing their toys out of their pram in their dispute with AZ, making various threats & even imposing a border in Ireland without consulting the British & Irish governments, before doing a massive U-turn the next day.
> 
> ...




Pity its taking so long to get us all vaccinated over here.
Huge shortages of vaccine.


----------



## kabbes (May 15, 2021)

Be cautious with polled vaccine hesitancy.  Asking somebody what they would theoretically do in a hypothetical situation is not the same thing as actually inviting them to be vaccinated, as was proved by the difference between UK polled hesitancy at the end of 2020 and the reality at the start of 2021.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 15, 2021)

kabbes said:


> Be cautious with polled vaccine hesitancy.  Asking somebody what they would theoretically do in a hypothetical situation is not the same thing as actually inviting them to be vaccinated, as was proved by the difference between UK polled hesitancy at the end of 2020 and the reality at the start of 2021.



That's true, but the comparisons of responses from different countries is interesting.  

I always assumed the uptake increased here, because we got hit so hard over Xmas & into the New Year, but that doesn't seem to play out in the polls of East European countries, that have been hit even harder over the winter months, about 10 are now above the UK in deaths per million, with Hungary the worst on over 3,000 per 1m, compared to the UK on under 1,900.


----------



## miss direct (May 15, 2021)

Badgers said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The way that tourists have been exempt from curfews and stay at home orders while locals are still stuck at home is utterly disgusting.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 16, 2021)

More reports of massive under reporting of covid death figures in India.   



Spoiler: Grim reading - not for the faint-hearted



The Dainik Bhaskar, a Hindi newspaper popular across India’s crowded heartland, fanned 30 of its reporters along the banks of the river Ganga in Uttar Pradesh state. They found -- and photographed -- more than 2,000 corpses across some 1,140 kilometers (708 miles). That’s when the state government claims only about 300 are dying daily.

Their findings make grim reading: authorities are piling silt over more than 350 bodies lying in shallow graves in Kannauj, the reporters say; they see dogs gnawing at some of the 400 corpses just a short distance from a crematorium in Kanpur; they count 52 corpses floating down the river in Ghazipur, often crossing state borders.





> Meanwhile, in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat, the Divya Bhaskar newspaper found that 123,000 death certificates were issued between March 1 and May 10 -- about 65,000 more than the same period last year though the state reported 4,218 Covid deaths.











						Small Town Reporters Reveal Coronavirus Carnage in India
					

Across India’s small towns and villages, local language newspapers are revealing that thousands more are probably dying of the coronavirus each day than the government’s data show.




					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 17, 2021)

I've seen various reports that Modi had disappeared from the public eye, so this stunt did make me smile.



> The missing persons complaint was filed at Parliament Street police station in Delhi as a matter of some urgency: it concerned the “disappearance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi” and 10 of his cabinet ministers during the pandemic.
> 
> Nagesh Kariyappa, the general secretary of the Indian national students’ union who filed the report to police on Friday, said he wanted the absence of political leadership when India had been brought to its knees by Covid-19 to be a matter of official record. “Where are the so-called leaders who had promised to make India a global leader but have instead made people suffer like this?” said Kariyappa.











						‘Everybody is angry’: Modi under fire over India’s Covid second wave
					

From an approval rating of 80% earlier in the year, now tough questions are being asked of PM’s leadership




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## weltweit (May 17, 2021)

I wonder if Modi has got the virus? Stranger things have happened.


----------



## MJ100 (May 17, 2021)

weltweit said:


> I wonder if Modi has got the virus? Stranger things have happened.



You never know. Happened to Tanzania's president a few months ago, disappeared from public view and then ended up dying of 'cardiac issues.'


----------



## elbows (May 17, 2021)

Likewise the president of Burundi last summer:









						Burundi president dies of illness suspected to be coronavirus
					

Government describes Pierre Nkurunziza’s ‘unexpected’ death as a heart attack




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## William of Walworth (May 17, 2021)

Modi was in full-on, non-masked, crowd-centric state election mode in West Bengal** very recently, so the suggestion of him being infected isn't that outlandish! 

(**And that was an election that the BJP lost  )


----------



## Badgers (May 18, 2021)

elbows said:


> Likewise the president of Burundi last summer:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## bimble (May 20, 2021)

bimble said:


> In normal times, poor families sometimes have to take out loans at terrible rates of interest, to afford a funeral, not just the ritual but the actual wood for the pyre is really expensive, even in normal times. Can you imagine how that is now, the cost of wood must be through the roof. Very minor sounding but will be long term significantly crippling for poorest families.


this is happening. 








						Stench of death pervades rural India as Ganges swells with Covid victims
					

Stigma and cost of wood leave families with no choice but to immerse their dead in river




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Teaboy (May 20, 2021)

I've read so many harrowing stories from India recently.  It strikes me that the stories that actually reach us are what is happening to the middle classes, no one really ever gave a shit about the poor and I can't imagine what is happening to them now.


----------



## platinumsage (May 20, 2021)

Many East Asian countries that had successfully kept the virus out by border controls and stringent surveillance are seeing a surge in infections, in most cases due to a single weak point allowing the virus to enter and spread amongst a population and medical establishment that had become complacent. Vaccination uptake has also been low due to a previously perceived lack of need.

Taiwan, Singapore: 

"Taiwan relaxed its quarantine requirements for non-vaccinated airline pilots from an initial 14-day period, to five days - and then, just three days.
Shortly afterwards, a cluster broke out connected to a handful of China Airlines pilots who had been staying at a Novotel near Taoyuan Airport. Many of those linked to this cluster were later found to have contracted the UK variant, known as B.1.1.7."

"Singapore's Changi Airport - which also boasts a popular shopping centre - had turned into the country's biggest Covid cluster this year. Authorities later found out that a number of infected airport staff had been working in a zone that received travellers from high-risk countries, including those in South Asia. Some of these workers then went on to have their meals in the airport's food courts - which are open to members of the public - further spreading the virus."









						Covid-19: What went wrong in Singapore and Taiwan?
					

They were once hailed as success stories, but both places are now seeing a steep rise in virus cases.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				





And in Cambodia, Thailand, Indonesia etc

"In Cambodia two prostitutes infected with the more infectious British variant of covid-19, known as B.1.1.7, arrived on a private jet from Dubai in early February and promptly broke quarantine to visit clients, nightclubs and other places. By mid-May the outbreak they seeded had infected thousands of people and killed more than 100."









						A worrying new wave of covid-19 is hitting South-East Asia
					

Cases are rising across a region that had been relatively unscathed




					www.economist.com


----------



## William of Walworth (May 21, 2021)

Teaboy said:


> I've read so many harrowing stories from India recently.  It strikes me that the stories that actually reach us are what is happening to the middle classes, no one really ever gave a shit about the poor and I can't imagine what is happening to them now.



I don't completely agree, although I do see your point.

Some of Hannah Ellis-Petersen's Guardian reports from India (generally excellent, and very often harrowing) include interviews with poor people having terrible and cash-bereft experiences


----------



## quimcunx (May 21, 2021)

One might argue they've been let down by countries that were less stringent during a global pandemic which needs everyone to do their bit to defeat it.


----------



## Sunray (May 21, 2021)

Some doctor in the US got so fed up with the anti-vax brigade he put out some total bullshit about vaccinated people shedding proteins and the best way to protect yourself from them is to wear a mask.  Now a load of anti-vaxxers are wearing masks. That's dedication to your own narrative, however wrong.

lol

It's been noticed recently that a lot of these types of people have no critical thinking whatsoever, believing anything that supports their view without really fact checking it.  Some people have been using this for the lols against the flat earth brigade.  If you want to see this in action google "kreptactic flight sequentials" and see if you can figure out where that came from and now who are discussing it.


----------



## Yossarian (May 22, 2021)

Kind of heartbreaking to see cases now getting out of control in Taiwan after they did such an incredible job from so early on - if other countries had responded so well, there might not have been a pandemic.

The evil motherfuckers in Beijing, meanwhile, are using the crisis to try to undermine Taiwan's government by spreading misinformation.









						Taiwan accuses China of spreading fake news about Covid outbreak
					

Beijing is using ‘cognitive warfare’ to undermine trust in the island’s government, says official




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## elbows (May 22, 2021)

Yeah, the obvious problem with such approaches is that you need to maintain full vigilance for a very long time, and it only takes a few mistakes and some bad luck to see many gains lost. I still applaud such attempts, and the time they bought, but they can lead to temptation to relax prematurely, with disastrous results.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 22, 2021)

Poor India, if they haven't suffered enough from covid, they now have a “black fungus” epidemic within the pandemic, cases are mainly linked to patients who had severe cases of Covid-19, because the steroids treatment compromises the immune system.

Some hospitals in Delhi are reporting as many as 15 to 20 new cases a day, compared to 1 or 2 a month normally, more than 7,200 people infected & 219 have died so far, and this has resulted in a lack of the drugs needed to treat it. 



> States across India have begun declaring a “black fungus” epidemic as cases of the fatal rare infection shoot up in patients recovering from Covid-19.
> 
> The fungal disease, called mucormycosis, has a 50% mortality rate. It affects patients initially in the nose but the fungus can then spread into the brain, and can often only be treated by major surgery removing the eye or part of skull and jaw.





> The disease is caused by fungal spores found in soil and organic matter, usually inhaled by humans from the air. The mould enters the body and then manifests around the nose and eye sockets, causing the nose to blacken, and if not stopped will move fatally into the brain. Healthy individuals will usually fight off the fungus but it can spread fast in those with compromised immunity.











						‘Black fungus’ disease linked to Covid spreads across India
					

7,200 mucormycosis cases reported, usually in patients with diabetes or compromised immune systems




					www.theguardian.com
				




And, if that's not enough, there's been a few cases of 'white fungus', which could be even worst. 



> After a spike in cases of deadly black fungus among Covid-19 patients in India, concerns are now growing for the potentially more lethal white fungus infection.
> 
> Four cases of “white fungus”, also called “candidiasis”, were detected on Wednesday at a government-run medical college in Patna, the capital city of the eastern state of Bihar, which is seeing a particular spike in Covid cases.











						After spike in Covid-related black fungus in India, now ‘white fungus’ causes alarm
					

Also believed to be linked to Covid, doctors say ‘white fungus’ appears to be spreading faster to other organs than cases of ‘black fungus’




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Sunray (May 24, 2021)

Dr John Campbell said it’s 20 cases detected a year in India normally. It’s arisen due to a combination of steroids and diabetes. Black fungus has a 50% mortality rate and requires very expensive drug treatment and disfiguring surgery. 
when I say expensive, expensive for me @ $50 a dose every day for 8 weeks.

 if that report on excess deaths is correct then all the deaths should be x 15!  No wonder Modi has disappeared.


----------



## elbows (May 24, 2021)

If anyone was of the view that it was appropriate to exclude the possibility that the pandemic origins involved a lab accident, it might be time to reevaluate your stance:









						Wuhan lab staff sought hospital care before COVID-19 outbreak disclosed - WSJ
					

Three researchers from China's Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) sought hospital care in November 2019, a month before China reported the first cases of COVID-19, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday, citing a U.S. intelligence report.  The Journal said current and former officials...




					news.yahoo.com


----------



## Supine (May 24, 2021)

elbows said:


> If anyone was of the view that it was appropriate to exclude the possibility that the pandemic origins involved a lab accident, it might be time to reevaluate your stance:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Three people were ill with something that could have been covid or “another common seasonal illness” isn’t exactly rock solid evidence of lab escape.


----------



## elbows (May 24, 2021)

Supine said:


> Three people were ill with something that could have been covid or “another common seasonal illness” isn’t exactly rock solid evidence of lab escape.



Hence my use of language. There is no conclusive proof available. There are just reasons to explore that possibility further and retain an open mind.


----------



## l'Otters (May 24, 2021)

I just posted something about that in the antivaxx stupidity thread... link to a much longer article from the bulletin of the atomic scientists. It looks a lot less clear cut than what I’d previously read. 


elbows said:


> If anyone was of the view that it was appropriate to exclude the possibility that the pandemic origins involved a lab accident, it might be time to reevaluate your stance:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (May 24, 2021)

13:23 entry of BBC live updates page:



			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57225462
		




> The World Health Organization's investigation into the origins of the pandemic needs to "explore all possible theories", Downing Street says, following reports that workers at Wuhan's virology laboratory were treated in hospital as far back as November 2019.
> 
> A US intelligence report says three researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) sought hospital care a month before China reported the first cases of what became known as Covid-19, the Wall Street Journal reports.
> 
> ...



The complex politics and high stakes involved make this a very tricky one to get to the bottom of. There are few matters quite as sensitive as this. I doubt the WHO will have all the tools and space it needs to find all the answers and draw the right conclusion. Not without help from other agencies, and some kind of opening up of limits imposed by 'international diplomacy' and the various balancing acts that are part of the reality of trying to operate a global health agency that needs to work in partnership with nations.


----------



## Supine (May 24, 2021)

elbows said:


> Hence my use of language. There is no conclusive proof available. There are just reasons to explore that possibility further and retain an open mind.



I’d go further and say it’s impossible to prove where covid became a human disease. There is no way to go back and find an animal to human transition.

As to it being man made I’m keeping that in the deep conspiracy category. I listened to a world leading virologist who said creating covid was too technically complex based on current science. If she thought that I have no reason to believe Wuhan Institute of Virology achieved it.


----------



## elbows (May 24, 2021)

The 'man made' bit is something of a red herring, that part is not necessary in order for a lab accident to be involved.

People that dont want to keep an open mind about that possibility should probably think about why they feel the need to exclude such possibilities.

Understanding what that particular lab specialised in, and something of the history of accidents of this sort, is all I require in order to entertain the lab accident possibility. Doesnt mean I would bet money that this is certain to have been the cause.


----------



## elbows (May 24, 2021)

Supine said:


> There is no way to go back and find an animal to human transition.



There are ways to obtain clues about that and deduce certain things. Its not easy, and I wouldnt expect perfect answers and proof in regards that possibility either. But there are various techniques to do with genomic details and the rate of mutation that have been used in other studies to point in certain directions in the past.


----------



## platinumsage (May 24, 2021)

Supine said:


> I listened to a world leading virologist who said creating covid was too technically complex based on current science.


Link? On the face of it sounds like nonsense so would be good to hear the details.


----------



## elbows (May 24, 2021)

Although I said the 'man-made' thing could be a red herring in that it isnt strictly necessary for that side of things to have been in play in order for some lab accident possibilities to be feasible, that doesnt mean I entirely exclude that entire side of things either.

It does open up several additional cans of worms though. We only have to look back to pre-pademic arguments about whether various 'gain of function' experiments were worthwhile or too risky to get some sense of the capabilities already available to specialised scientists, and of the diverse range of opinions on whether that stuff was too risky etc etc. And then there is there is the additional fog that would be expected to shroud any areas where governments may have an interest in weapons research.

This leaves those aspects as largely a black hole in my mind. I would not expect to be able to pick through the publicly available information and be able to paint a picture I was highly confifdent in. And I would not expect experts to all be on the same page as to what is possible or at all likely.

Here is a 2015 article that provides one example of what was possible, what misunderstandings about the detail can result, and the very differing opinions on display. There is plenty of other history that I have not looked into in any depth.





__





						Bat SARS-like coronavirus: It’s not SARS 2.0!
					

Criticisms of a new study on the potential of SARS-virus-like bat coronaviruses to cause human disease have little merit.




					www.virology.ws


----------



## elbows (May 24, 2021)

And 'man made' is a rather simplistic label. If its used to suggest 'made from scratch by humans' then thats probably seriously overstretching our sense of current capabilities. 'Fiddled with a bit by humans' may be closer to the mark in terms of current abilities, but as I already said its also possible to have lab accidents where an unaltered virus collected from animals is involved.


----------



## elbows (May 24, 2021)

And given how sensitive and high-stakes, political etc that sort of stuff is in the current pandemic context, I generally recommend people try to make use of things that were said well before this pandemic, so as to avoid those who want to narrow or close matters in the current pandemic context.

There was a moratorium in the US in regards gain-of-function stuff with viruses in 2014. This is useful when trying to find simple info about whats been done in the past.

Just one 2014 example:





__





						Moratorium on Research Intended To Create Novel Potential Pandemic Pathogens
					





					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
				






> Experiments that create the possibility of initiating a pandemic should be subject to a rigorous quantitative risk assessment and a search for safer alternatives before they are approved or performed. Yet a rigorous and transparent risk assessment process for this work has not yet been established. This is why we support the recently announced moratorium on funding new “gain-of-function” (GOF) experiments that enhance mammalian transmissibility or virulence in severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), and influenza viruses.



None of this has anything to do with finding 'proof' about whats happened with this virus, except in the sense that paying proper attention to the history enables us to reject the false backdrops that some are keen to promote at this time, no doubt for all manner of reasons.


----------



## elbows (May 24, 2021)

More on sniffer dogs ability to detect the virus:









						Faster than a PCR test: dogs detect Covid in under a second
					

Study in London used six enthusiastic dogs in a double-blind trial




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## weltweit (May 24, 2021)

Could do with some of those dogs at Heathrow I think   ..


----------



## elbows (May 24, 2021)

More bad news from Japan.


----------



## zahir (May 24, 2021)

elbows said:


> If anyone was of the view that it was appropriate to exclude the possibility that the pandemic origins involved a lab accident, it might be time to reevaluate your stance:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's been posted before but this short PR video for Chinese virus research has the unintentional effect of showing how easily bat researchers could have come into contact with the virus. With hindsight the collection of samples looks very risky, whether or not this was actually the source of transmission from bats to humans.


----------



## l'Otters (May 24, 2021)

l'Otters said:


> I just posted something about that in the antivaxx stupidity thread... link to a much longer article from the bulletin of the atomic scientists. It looks a lot less clear cut than what I’d previously read.


It was this article: 









						The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box at Wuhan? - Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
					

If the case that SARS2 originated in a lab is so substantial, why isn’t this more widely known? As is now obvious, there are many people who have reason not to talk about it.




					thebulletin.org


----------



## Badgers (May 25, 2021)

Is the Olympics really going to happen?









						US issues Japan travel warning weeks before Olympics
					

It comes amid heightened scrutiny and pressure to call off the Tokyo Olympics due to be held soon.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> Last Friday IOC vice president John Coates said the Olympics will go ahead "even if Tokyo is still under a state of emergency".
> 
> That statement did not make him many friends in Japan, where daily deaths from Covid are now higher than at any time during the pandemic, and where the healthcare system in parts of western Japan has been described as "on the verge of collapse".


----------



## Yossarian (May 25, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Is the Olympics really going to happen?
> 
> 
> 
> ...



According to the Japan Times story posted earlier, the British variant is really hammering Japan, Osaka in particular - are they going to risk importing more variants? 

With public opinion in Japan against holding the Olympics, and with the virus changing faster than the event's Covid protocols, I don't think they're going to be foolhardy enough to go ahead with it.


----------



## sideboob (May 25, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> According to the Japan Times story posted earlier, the British variant is really hammering Japan, Osaka in particular - are they going to risk importing more variants?
> 
> With public opinion in Japan against holding the Olympics, and with the virus changing faster than the event's Covid protocols, I don't think they're going to be foolhardy enough to go ahead with it.











						Variants Make Up Over 90 Pct of New COVID-19 Cases in Japan
					

Tokyo, May 13 (Jiji Press)--Variants with the N501Y mutation are now estimated to be responsible for over 90 p…




					www.nippon.com
				



Tokyo, May 13 (Jiji Press)--Variants with the N501Y mutation are now estimated to be responsible for over 90 pct of new cases of novel coronavirus infection in Japan, it has been reported to a meeting of a health ministry advisory panel.

This is strange, considering that the borders have been closed off to most of the world for quite a while, and 3 days quarentine (iirc) required for those who are allowed to enter.









						Over 80% of Japanese oppose Olympics this summer, poll shows
					

The survey highlighted dissatisfaction with the government's coronavirus response, with 85% calling the vaccine rollout slow and 71.5% critical of its overall handling of the pandemic.




					www.japantimes.co.jp
				




It`s just so fucked on so many levels.  Almost nobody wants the Olympics, borders are closed except to people involved in the Olympics, and the Olympic atheltes aren`t required to be vaccinated.  But I would bet that the Olympics will go ahead, money and politics doesn`t represent the masses.


----------



## sideboob (May 25, 2021)

This is from last December, and doesn`t appear to have been updated since.   As the final paragraph suggests,  hospitals have been under pressure for a while, it just doesn`t make the news.


----------



## elbows (May 25, 2021)

Well it varies a bit by region. Although I dont pay all that much attention to data from Japan, due to things like severe limits to their testing system, it seems from the most basic national data that they've had two peaks this year. And we often hear the most about terrible hospital situation at the point where admissions etc are at their maximum, hopefully to be followed soon after by a downwards trend.

eg this from worldometer:



There are some English updates describing various details per region on the following site. Updates to the English version dont happen often enough for my liking but are still of some use.





__





						COVID-19
					





					www.niid.go.jp
				




If they think they are somewhat past the latest peak then this is one reason why they will still be sticking with the idea of the olympics going ahead. But of course there will be plenty of other foolhardy reasons for that too.


----------



## 2hats (May 26, 2021)

A study led by Drosten's group at Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, which might prove to be one of if not the definitive viral load study, and which underlines that children are similarly infectious to adults.


> The differences we observe in first-positive RT-PCR viral load between groups based on age are minor. Comparisons between adult viral loads and those of children and the relative infectious risks they pose are difficult due to the likely influence of non-viral factors. Nasopharyngeal swab samples, which often carry higher viral loads, are rarely taken from young children due to pain and lack of cooperation, and the sample volume carried by smaller pediatric swab devices is lower than in larger swabs used for adults. Infections in mildly-symptomatic children may be initially missed and only detected later, resulting in lower first-positive viral loads. Our results of similar viral load trajectories for children and adults, and the numeric range of the viral load values in question, suggest that viral load differences between children and adults are too small to alone produce large differences in infectiousness. The relative impact on transmission of general age-related physiological differences, such as different innate immune responses, may be small as compared to the impact of large differences in frequency of close contacts and transmission opportunities.


Further, it confirms that even asymptomatic individuals can have very high viral loads, and that a minority can cause the majority of all transmissions, underlining the importance of NPIs. It also highlights that individuals infected with B.1.1.7 have much higher viral loads on average (compared to a previous widespread variant B.1.177) and are likely more infectious (based on lab estimates).




__





						Press reports
					

Press release of the Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin




					www.charite.de
				








DOI: 10.1126/science.abi5273.


----------



## teuchter (May 26, 2021)

Where did the idea that children are less infectious come from in the first place?


----------



## a_chap (May 26, 2021)

Parents


----------



## Teaboy (May 26, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Where did the idea that children are less infectious come from in the first place?



The government and indeed government scientists.  Its been a bug bear of mine throughout and I've grumbled about it a lot on here because it was obvious bollocks.

The government have been falling over themselves to say that the virus doesn't apply to kids and teens.  I know why they did it and there is a certain sense to it but I feel there was a halfway house.


----------



## elbows (May 26, 2021)

a_chap said:


> Parents



The government, employers, professional bullshitters, wishful thinkers, specialists that are narrow and have a knack for getting it wrong.

Many parents know better, like teachers they are aware via experience that children shed a lot of virus when it comes to other illnesses, even if they dont know anything about the technicalities of it.

But it is true that some parents with a bias for remaining at work may have been willing to engage in doube-think about such matters. After all, professional bullshitters have children too.


----------



## emanymton (May 26, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Where did the idea that children are less infectious come from in the first place?


People not understanding that being less likely to get serious symptoms doesn't mean you are less likely to infect others.


----------



## Yossarian (May 26, 2021)

Biden has asked intelligence agencies to redouble their investigation of the origin of COVID-19 as the lab leak theory gains wider acceptance - I'm glad this is getting a second look under a less insane US president - might not have happened if China hadn't Streisand Effected the issue by blocking investigators.









						Biden asks intel community to 'redouble' efforts probing COVID-19 origins
					

President Biden on Wednesday announced a ramped-up effort to determine the origins of COVID-19, reflecting a new acceptance in U.S.




					thehill.com


----------



## Yossarian (May 26, 2021)

Good piece here on why much of the media may have been far too quick to dismiss suggestions of a Wuhan lab leak.



> Many mainstream journalists, though not all, dismissed the lab-leak hypothesis out of hand as a conspiracy theory. In part, they were deceived by some especially voluble public-health experts. In part, they simply took Donald Trump’s bait, answering the former president’s dissembling with false certainty of their own.





			https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/05/lab-leak-liberal-media-theory-china-wuhan-lab-cotton-trump.html


----------



## elbows (May 26, 2021)

I havent got time to read that now but I'd expect the sort of expert bullshit they describe to have some strong resemblances the shit that made me think I had to do my own pandemic commentary in the first place.

On a related note when I got quite heavily into debunking conspiracy theorists for a time last decade, I was dismayed at how far some people overcompensated for that kind of deluded shit and ended up in different sort of narrow world that didnt reflect probable reality properly either, eg ended up being hopelessly naive. Its a balancing act where a relatively open mind for as long as possible is a sensible approach.


----------



## elbows (May 26, 2021)

I'd like to thank all the people who managed to resist the urge to jump all over me on the occasions where the lab theory came up and was discussed in the past, back when people were largely encouraged to write it all off as outlandish hogwash and I was at odds with that approach.

I was amused by this BBC analysis of the new era we find ourselves in regarding this theory. The lines redrawn before our very eyes. The new mainstream still has its limits.



> Lab leak theory goes mainstream. Analysis by Anthony Zurcher, North America reporter.
> 
> In what passes for relative transparency in the US government, the Biden administration has conceded the American intelligence community is split on Covid-19's origins - it could be the lab or animal-to-human contact - and no-one is near certain about it.
> 
> That marks a big shift from the derision heaped on the lab theory by many in the media and politics last year, when Donald Trump, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Senator Tom Cotton and others floated the idea.





> Mr Trump and Mr Pompeo didn't help the situation, however, as they were coy about the grounds for their suspicion. And their theories floating alongside more far-fetched ones, such as that the disease was manufactured in a Chinese lab. That possibility still seem highly unlikely.
> 
> The public may never know the full truth about the virus' origins, particularly if China continues to be unco-operative. Mr Biden is pledging a full investigation, however, and if the US finds conclusive evidence of a lab leak, it will mean more than just a few prominent figures having to eat crow and re-evaluate their trust in authoritative "conclusions". It could place very real strain on US-China relations for years to come.











						Covid: Biden orders investigation into virus origin as lab leak theory debated
					

US intelligence is divided on whether the virus came from a Chinese lab or animal-to-human contact.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




I dont recommend eating crow, it could lead to new animal->human transfer of viruses with pandemic potential.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (May 27, 2021)

tbf: you're more likely to be eaten by a crow than the other way around


----------



## David Clapson (May 27, 2021)

China's getting so bellicose about Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, Hong Kong etc etc that it can't be long before they commit their huuuuge armed forces to something terrible. They have such a big appetite for conquest. I don't think they want to achieve it with a virus - there's much more pride to be savoured if they use lots of big ships and goose-stepping armies.


----------



## Chairman Meow (May 27, 2021)

Melbourne back into a 7 day lockdown as outbreak grows to 26 cases.

Coronavirus Australia live update: Victoria announces seven-day ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown after Melbourne outbreak grows to 26 Covid cases


----------



## Flavour (May 27, 2021)

Potential for it to become much more than that very quickly in Victoria given that normal life (including full capacity sports stadiums) has basically been back on for months


----------



## Flavour (May 27, 2021)

David Clapson said:


> They have such a big appetite for conquest.


Not sure about that. They'd have invaded Taiwan ages ago.


----------



## Yossarian (May 27, 2021)

Flavour said:


> Not sure about that. They'd have invaded Taiwan ages ago.



They'd probably have invaded Taiwan many years ago if they'd thought they could do so without risking conflict with the US.

But while the lab leak theory is as valid as any other - and would certainly help explain why Beijing tried so hard to hush up information about the Wuhan outbreak in its early weeks - it definitely shouldn't be conflated with claims that China deliberately released the virus to cause havoc in the West - if they were going to do that, they'd have released it in the West, not in China, and definitely not in the vicinity of a Chinese lab carrying out research on coronaviruses.


----------



## Chairman Meow (May 27, 2021)

Yep Melbourne might get much worse. It looks like there was at least one super-spreader, and the variant has spread extremely quickly. The contract tracers have identified 10,000 plus contacts so far, which is obviously a worry! It does seem to have caused a swift uptick in people getting vaccinated though, I tried to book mine today for two weeks ahead as I just had my flu jab, and the first available appointment near me was June 13th! The WA border is closed again to Victorians, I really hope they don't need another long lockdown like last time. And I hope the situation doesn't change here in WA, as we currently have only two cases, but over 15000 Victorians have flown in in the last few weeks, so who knows?


----------



## retribution (May 27, 2021)

Chairman Meow said:


> Yep Melbourne might get much worse. It looks like there was at least one super-spreader, and the variant has spread extremely quickly. The contract tracers have identified 10,000 plus contacts so far, which is obviously a worry! It does seem to have caused a swift uptick in people getting vaccinated though, I tried to book mine today for two weeks ahead as I just had my flu jab, and the first available appointment near me was June 13th! The WA border is closed again to Victorians, I really hope they don't need another long lockdown like last time. And I hope the situation doesn't change here in WA, as we currently have only two cases, but over 15000 Victorians have flown in in the last few weeks, so who knows?



Melburnian here. A few winter lockdowns  always seemed inevitable given continued hotel quarantine failures - don't worry about it being WA's failure that got us this time  

While this outbreak was allowed to continue for a few days before a lockdown, we're nowhere near the same situation as we were in before last year's long winter in terms of cases. I'm hopeful that this one shouldn't last much longer than a couple weeks or so. 



Flavour said:


> Potential for it to become much more than that very quickly in Victoria given that normal life (including full capacity sports stadiums) has basically been back on for months



For sure. This was always a risk but the last few months have been glorious. 

One of the impressive elements of Australia's awesome contact tracing system is that when there's an outbreak, "exposure sites" that positive cases visited are published. This is presented at a fine level of detail, so that people who were there can self-isolate. Our most recent outbreak involves this person, who it seems enjoyed quite a session:


It would be more amusing if Chapel St wasn't a packed bars/clubs area and if the person hadn't then gone to work and spread it around their coworkers.

I've got it easy as I can go back to WFH and have no kids to look after. Feeling sad for those it won't be so easy for.


----------



## Chairman Meow (May 27, 2021)

retribution said:


> Melburnian here. A few winter lockdowns  always seemed inevitable given continued hotel quarantine failures - don't worry about it being WA's failure that got us this time
> 
> While this outbreak was allowed to continue for a few days before a lockdown, we're nowhere near the same situation as we were in before last year's long winter in terms of cases. I'm hopeful that this one shouldn't last much longer than a couple weeks or so.
> 
> ...


Good luck to you! I know my Melbourne mates are gutted right now (and shitting themselves, but they assure me they have ample toilet paper  ). Lets hope the circuit breaker works.


----------



## elbows (May 27, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> But while the lab leak theory is as valid as any other - and would certainly help explain why Beijing tried so hard to hush up information about the Wuhan outbreak in its early weeks - it definitely shouldn't be conflated with claims that China deliberately released the virus to cause havoc in the West - if they were going to do that, they'd have released it in the West, not in China, and definitely not in the vicinity of a Chinese lab carrying out research on coronaviruses.



I note the probably dual-purpose of the Chinese line on this. From that BBC article I posted last night:



> Beijing has previously suggested Covid-19 could have come from a US laboratory instead.
> 
> In its statement, the Chinese embassy said it supported a full investigation into "some secretive bases and biological laboratories all over the world".



So first we have the standard approach seen before, where they try to muddy the waters about the country of origin. But I cant help thinking that it is joined by a threat about what may be revealed about the shadowy world of bioweapons research if the USA insists on pursuing the lab line of inquiry!


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (May 27, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> They'd probably have invaded Taiwan many years ago if they'd thought they could do so without risking conflict with the US.
> 
> But while the lab leak theory is as valid as any other - and would certainly help explain why Beijing tried so hard to hush up information about the Wuhan outbreak in its early weeks - it definitely shouldn't be conflated with claims that China deliberately released the virus to cause havoc in the West - if they were going to do that, they'd have released it in the West, not in China, and definitely not in the vicinity of a Chinese lab carrying out research on coronaviruses.


double bluff and muddy the waters?


Spoiler: where is



my paranoia medicine


----------



## brogdale (May 29, 2021)

Doesn't sound great...


----------



## glitch hiker (May 29, 2021)

It's good to see British imperialism extends to our viral output


----------



## Sue (May 29, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Doesn't sound great...
> 
> View attachment 270710


Especially given they were doing really well before. (Was just reading this in the Guardian):









						Vietnam says new Covid variant is hybrid of India and UK strains
					

‘Very dangerous’ coronavirus variant is ‘more transmissible’ than previously known types




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## sideboob (May 29, 2021)

Japan doctors union warns games could lead to 'Tokyo ...​https://www.japantimes.co.jp › 2021/05/27 › national › d...


The head of a doctors union in Japan warned Thursday that holding the Olympic Games in Tokyo this summer, with tens of thousands of people gathered from around the world, could lead to the development of a new “Olympic” strain of the coronavirus.


“All of the different mutated strains of the virus that exist in different places will be concentrated and gathering here in Tokyo. We cannot deny the possibility of even a new strain of the virus potentially emerging after the Olympics,” he told a news conference.


----------



## weltweit (May 29, 2021)

Good point I would have thought. should the Olympics go ahead ?


----------



## Supine (May 29, 2021)

Those Japanese doctors don’t know how viruses work if they think that!


----------



## elbows (May 29, 2021)

Supine said:


> Those Japanese doctors don’t know how viruses work if they think that!



My knowledge about recombination is rather limited and mostly pre-dates this pandemic. And I sometimes get the impression that there is disagreement between scientists about what constitutes proof of it and how big a deal it is. Do you have anything you can add to my knowledge of it?









						Exclusive: Two variants have merged into heavily mutated coronavirus
					

The UK and California variants of coronavirus appear to have combined into a heavily mutated hybrid, sparking concern that we may be entering a new phase of the covid-19 pandemic




					www.newscientist.com


----------



## bimble (May 30, 2021)

This is a good bit of writing. Does suggest that the Kumbh (millions of people crammed together for days then travelling back home all over the country) may have played a significant part in the disaster that followed.

The only real new info in the piece is that government higher-ups ordered local local track and trace officials to stop looking at this, stop trying to locate attendees and get them to test & quarantine, because they did not want it discussed, that the PM himself had urged people to attend the biggest superspreader event in the world.









						Kumbh Mela: how a superspreader festival seeded Covid across India
					

Millions attended Kumbh Mela as India’s second coronavirus wave began




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## sparkybird (May 30, 2021)

bimble said:


> This is a good bit of writing. Does suggest that the Kumbh (millions of people crammed together for days then travelling back home all over the country) may have played a significant part in the disaster that followed.
> 
> The only real new info in the piece is that government higher-ups ordered local local track and trace officials to stop looking at this, stop trying to locate attendees and get them to test & quarantine, because they did not want it discussed, that the PM himself had urged people to attend the biggest superspreader event in the world.
> 
> ...


Thanks for sharing that. I've friends in Kerala, they are now back in another strict lockdown.
Sad to see that the only person in the article who really 'believed' in the existence of covid was a farmer and his guilt in bringing it back to the village weighs heavy.
😥


----------



## 2hats (May 30, 2021)

Sue said:


> Especially given they were doing really well before. (Was just reading this in the Guardian):
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Sounds like it isn't a new variant and simply shares a short deleted sequence in the spike, which is something seen repeatedly across numerous variant types.

e2a: Confirmed by the deputy director of the Vietnam Central Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology - just the Y144 deletion in spike (seen in local B.1.617.2 samples, in common with B.1.1.7).


----------



## elbows (May 30, 2021)

I am entertained by the nature of the backpedaling and would recommend reading articles like this one in order to learn about mainstream limitations and how they cope with reality checks later. Also note the way respectable expert people who kept an open mind about the lab possibilities all along were previously treated, how 'close ranks' stuff was used. That happened in a similar way with issues of children spreading the virus too. 'Fuck mainstream doublethink and see it for what it is' is a reasonable technique for trying to bypass that shit at the early, sensitive stages, an approach that has served me reasonably well over the years. Narrow comfort zones inevitably lead to dangerous blindspots.



> In March last year, it was widely agreed by everybody sensible, me included, that talk of the pandemic originating in a laboratory was pseudoscientific nonsense almost on a par with UFOs and the Loch Ness monster.











						The Covid lab leak theory is looking increasingly plausible
					

In March last year, it was widely agreed by everybody sensible, me included, that talk of the pandemic originating in a laboratory was pseudoscientific nonsense almost on a par with UFOs and the Loch Ness monster. My own reasoning was that Mother Nature is a better genetic engineer than we will...




					www.spectator.co.uk
				




I suppose I should be delighted that I am not considered to be sensible by these people. I note that they have settled on conflations between 'man made' and 'natural but still came via a lab accident' as part of their excuse. Still inadequate and too narrow, but unsurprising that this is where the acceptable boundaries are now placed. They've picked up on early 2000's SARS lab accidents. I still dont see journalists noticing that a late 1970s 'flu pandemic of the young' is suspected to have been caused by a lab accident. Elsewhere I have seen signs that the 'gain of function' debate is back as a result of this shifting picture, but I havent had time to read a recent FT article where this was mentioned, I just saw it during a news search online.


----------



## elbows (May 30, 2021)

Also be aware that debate about the merits and risks of 'gain of function' experiments are poisoned because some experts who should know better are driven by vested interest, or at best a sense of priorities that lead to imbalanced risk assessments.


----------



## elbows (May 30, 2021)

Here is the FT piece on gain of function stuff:






						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com
				




The claim that this stuff is 'a corner of science that previously operated far from public view' is a bit of a stretch given that the US pause of such things in 2014 was in the news at the time and led to debate at the time. And enough people noticed this aspect of the Wuhan labs work last year that the likes of Nature felt the need to put tedious disclaimers at the top of a number of pre-pandemic articles on the subject.


----------



## elbows (May 30, 2021)

I note the interesting wording at the end of the article too.



> Milton Leitenberg, an expert in biological weapons at the University of Maryland, said: “Whatever we classify this work as, it should not have been taking place at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.”


----------



## elbows (May 31, 2021)

I will try using the new names in future, hope they catch on.









						Covid: WHO renames UK and other variants with Greek letters
					

The variant first detected in the UK becomes Alpha, with South Africa, Brazil and India also renamed.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				












						Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants
					

All viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, change over time. Most changes have little to no impact on the virus’ properties. However, some changes may affect the virus’s properties, such as how easily it spreads, the associated disease severity, or the performance of...




					www.who.int


----------



## two sheds (Jun 1, 2021)

"The UK variant for instance is labelled as Alpha, the South African Beta, and the Indian as Delta."

Gamma? Ah Brazil, says in second article

Much much better - I get lost with all the numbers.letters.numbers.lettersagain.


----------



## Anju (Jun 1, 2021)

Full on response from China  after first community outbreak of the Indian variant. 

"Guangdong province had been reporting daily single figures of local cases, including asymptomatic cases, for more than a week, until the case load suddenly jumped to 23 on Monday, including three asymptomatic cases, and 11 on Tuesday. Most of Guandong’s cases are in the city of Guangzhou, with some in nearby Foshan, which has a population of 7.2 million."

"On Sunday all 15.3 million Guangzhou residents were barred from leaving via bus, air or train without a green code on the health management app and a negative Covid test taken in the preceding 72 hours."

://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/01/china-locks-down-part-of-guangzhou-amid-outbreak-of-indian-covid-variant?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other


----------



## editor (Jun 1, 2021)

Here's something for the anti-vaxx 'researchers' to mull over Brazil Covid: Deaths plunge after town's adults vaccinated


----------



## editor (Jun 1, 2021)

elbows said:


> I am entertained by the nature of the backpedaling and would recommend reading articles like this one in order to learn about mainstream limitations and how they cope with reality checks later. Also note the way respectable expert people who kept an open mind about the lab possibilities all along were previously treated, how 'close ranks' stuff was used. That happened in a similar way with issues of children spreading the virus too. 'Fuck mainstream doublethink and see it for what it is' is a reasonable technique for trying to bypass that shit at the early, sensitive stages, an approach that has served me reasonably well over the years. Narrow comfort zones inevitably lead to dangerous blindspots.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


You can read it here:





						Outline.com
					






					outline.com


----------



## 2hats (Jun 2, 2021)

Reproduction number across the UK now estimated at around 1.3, largely courtesy of B.1.617.2.





Chile seeing a surge in cases again despite having fully vaccinated a greater proportion of the population than the UK (and a comparable proportion single dosed). The established P.1 (20J/501Y.V3) being squeezed by some 'other' variant(s).


----------



## MrSki (Jun 2, 2021)

Melbourne's lockdown extended for another 7 days.


----------



## elbows (Jun 2, 2021)

Since that article gives transmission details we dont tend to get in the UK, I'm going to borrow it to make a point on the UK thread, cheers for highlighting it.


----------



## magneze (Jun 2, 2021)

2hats said:


> Reproduction number across the UK now estimated at around 1.3, largely courtesy of B.1.617.2.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Why are the B.1.617.x variants swooping down from above in the first chart?


----------



## 2hats (Jun 2, 2021)

magneze said:


> Why are the B.1.617.x variants swooping down from above in the first chart?


Base reproduction number for B.1.617.x estimated at somewhere between 5-7 (and originating from small numbers).


----------



## platinumsage (Jun 2, 2021)

2hats said:


> Chile seeing a surge in cases again despite having fully vaccinated a greater proportion of the population than the UK (and a comparable proportion single dosed). The established P.1 (20J/501Y.V3) being squeezed by some 'other' variant(s).
> View attachment 271498


Chile using lots of Sinovac which they estimate to be only 3% effective with one dose (Covid-19: Chinese vaccines may need changes to improve efficacy, admits official).


----------



## Badgers (Jun 2, 2021)

Thousands of Tokyo Olympics volunteers quit - NHK
					

Around 10,000 of the 80,000 volunteers who signed up to help at the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games have quit, broadcaster NHK reported on Wednesday, citing organisers.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## David Clapson (Jun 2, 2021)

The WHO has not assigned a Greek letter to the Vietnam variant. They are describing it as a mutation of B.1.617.2, i.e. Delta, formerly known as the India variant. What we know so far about the Vietnam variant in the UK

They've already used up ten Greek letters. Will they inevitably run out? Alpha to Delta are Variants of Concern, and Epsilon to Kappa are Variants of Interest.  Tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants


----------



## two sheds (Jun 2, 2021)

That sounds a bit silly - what do they call the next variant of concern? Lambda means they're not in logical order.


----------



## 2hats (Jun 2, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> Chile using lots of Sinovac which they estimate to be only 3% effective with one dose (Covid-19: Chinese vaccines may need changes to improve efficacy, admits official).


Over all 56.5% efficacy to infection at two weeks post second dose for the entire vaccination program (7% BNT162b2, 93% CoronaVac), with around 54% efficacy attributed to CoronaVac.








						Vacunas contra el SARS-CoV2 muestran 56,5 por ciento de efectividad en la prevención de contagios - Universidad de Chile
					

Estudio liderado por académicos de la Universidad de Chile identificó además que una sola aplicación de la vacuna entrega una protección ante contagios de solo




					www.uchile.cl


----------



## kabbes (Jun 2, 2021)

2hats said:


> Reproduction number across the UK now estimated at around 1.3, largely courtesy of B.1.617.2.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Geez, is that saying the reproduction rate for delta is over 1.5 everywhere?  It looks to be about 1.7, in fact?  If so, given its dominance, that’s the figure we should be concentrating on as it will be driving R in the coming weeks.  And that’s frightening — when we had R=1.7 before, we rapidly ended up overwhelmed.


----------



## Supine (Jun 2, 2021)

kabbes said:


> Geez, is that saying the reproduction rate for delta is over 1.5 everywhere?  It looks to be about 1.7, in fact?  If so, given its dominance, that’s the figure we should be concentrating on as it will be driving R in the coming weeks.  And that’s frightening — when we had R=1.7 before, we rapidly ended up overwhelmed.



Let’s hope those vaccines unlock the relationship between cases and serious disease. With a low percentage of the population double dosed the gov need to be really careful at this point.


----------



## weltweit (Jun 2, 2021)

Supine said:


> Let’s hope those vaccines unlock the relationship between cases and serious disease. With a low percentage of the population double dosed the gov need to be really careful at this point.


I am not seeing any signs that gov is going to be careful.


----------



## Supine (Jun 2, 2021)

weltweit said:


> I am not seeing any signs that gov is going to be careful.



Me neither, but you never know!

I think I’m overly optimistic having sat in the garden and enjoyed a bit too much sun.


----------



## 2hats (Jun 2, 2021)

kabbes said:


> Geez, is that saying the reproduction rate for delta is over 1.5 everywhere?  It looks to be about 1.7, in fact?  If so, given its dominance, that’s the figure we should be concentrating on as it will be driving R in the coming weeks.  And that’s frightening — when we had R=1.7 before, we rapidly ended up overwhelmed.


A separate estimate (beware confounders) which _might_ also suggest R0 in the region of 1.6-1.8 (1.4-2.0) for England.


----------



## 2hats (Jun 3, 2021)

And again, combining Sanger, COG-UK and T&T data: Re[B.1.617.2] ~1.55 (1.39-1.73).


----------



## 2hats (Jun 3, 2021)

And now, a brief distraction from our regular programme...








						China reports human case of H10N3 bird flu, a possible first
					

BEIJING (AP) — A man in eastern China has contracted what might be the world’s first human case of the H10N3 strain of bird flu, but the risk of large-scale spread is low, the government said Tuesday.




					apnews.com


----------



## Totoro303 (Jun 3, 2021)

spring-peeper said:


> Canada is outpacing U.S. for new COVID-19 cases per capita
> 
> 
> Daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Canada have skyrocketed amid the third wave of the pandemic and have now outpaced the United States per capita.
> ...


----------



## kabbes (Jun 3, 2021)

2hats said:


> And again, combining Sanger, COG-UK and T&T data: Re[B.1.617.2] ~1.55 (1.39-1.73).


Transmission advantage 75% — well more than the disaster scenario of 50% modelled by Warwick earlier this year that suggested a big third wave.

If we were still dealing with alpha, this suggests that our current rules would have been fine (R<1 in this model).  But delta is a completely different beast.  I’m seriously worried by this.


----------



## prunus (Jun 3, 2021)

2hats said:


> And again, combining Sanger, COG-UK and T&T data: Re[B.1.617.2] ~1.55 (1.39-1.73).



If I may interpret this using all my years of scientific training and experience: oh shit.


----------



## teuchter (Jun 3, 2021)

Aside from the message it contains, that's a very nice graph.


----------



## elbows (Jun 3, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Aside from the message it contains, that's a very nice graph.


Hopefully next time we see Johnson, someone will have stapled that graph to his forehead.


----------



## elbows (Jun 3, 2021)

The fucking Daily Mail were wanking on about a 'Nepal variant' last night. I had a quick look around at the time and couldnt find anything. Now there is this:


----------



## elbows (Jun 3, 2021)

Ah, one of the only reasons I looked into the Daily Mail thing was because it sounded like they'd gotten the info from someone in government.

I now see this:



> There is also "a sort of Nepal mutation of the so-called Indian variant which has been detected, and we just don't know the potential for that to be a vaccine defeating mutation," Shapps says.



That quote is from the 16:22 update on the BBC live updates page https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-57340860


----------



## The39thStep (Jun 3, 2021)

Portugal has been removed from the green list .It was less than a week ago that 50 flights from the UK  descended on Porto.


----------



## weltweit (Jun 3, 2021)

Didn't want to go to Portugal anyhow ..


----------



## weltweit (Jun 3, 2021)

Up to date list of traffic light countries anyone?

I thought it might be this : Portugal moved to amber list to guard public health against variants of concern following first traffic light review but it seems I was mistaken.

eta, It seems the list etc is here: Red, amber and green list rules for entering England


----------



## bemused (Jun 3, 2021)

I spend every other week sitting in a room with terminal patients. One of the depressing things about COVID is the idea that people like me, my friends, family and elderly relatives should take one for the team and die.



Matt makes taxpayers money from this scheme Homepage - British Business Bank

If I had any political or social media influence I'd really like to ask the government why he deserves any of dying peoples taxes. 

Awful human.


----------



## Sue (Jun 3, 2021)

Fucking hell, that's absolutely disgusting.


----------



## The39thStep (Jun 3, 2021)

weltweit said:


> Didn't want to go to Portugal anyhow ..


Wouldn't have let you in anyway


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jun 3, 2021)

bemused said:


> I spend every other week sitting in a room with terminal patients. One of the depressing things about COVID is the idea that people like me, my friends, family and elderly relatives should take one for the team and die.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



shame you can't easily leave a comment on thier website, not that I think the rest of them would care.


----------



## elbows (Jun 4, 2021)

The lab leak theory stuff continues to deliver stories that dont offer new clues into the origins, just some insight into the ways various people dismissed and closed down discussion of the matter in the past, and the reframing that is taking place now. As expected, its now more common to see gain of function studies coming up in this context.









						Covid: White House defends Dr Fauci over lab leak emails
					

The disease expert says emails about a theory Covid leaked from a China lab are being misconstrued.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> "I would like to see the medical records of the three people who are reported to have got sick in 2019," Dr Fauci told the Financial Times on Thursday. "Did they really get sick, and if so, what did they get sick with?"
> 
> He called on China to also release the medical records of six miners who fell ill after entering a bat cave in 2012 in China's Yunnan province.
> 
> ...





> Dr Robert Redfield, who led the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during the Trump administration, told Vanity Fair that he received death threats from fellow scientists when he backed the Wuhan lab leak theory last spring.
> 
> "I was threatened and ostracised because I proposed another hypothesis," Dr Redfield said. "I expected it from politicians. I didn't expect it from science."



I'd have expected it from scientists too. I wont forget in a hurry how aggressive some scientists became on twitter in regards all sorts of issues early in the pandemic, eg kids & schools, asymptomatic transmission. Scientists are just as capable of being too narrow as anyone else. Especially if they posses lots of confidence or arrogance in their understanding of specific matters. Lab leak theories are an even hotter potato than the other issues, so I'm not surprised some got carried away when attempting to shut down particular angles.



> During congressional testimony on 12 May, Dr Fauci emphatically denied the US had ever funded controversial gain of function research at the Wuhan lab.
> 
> During a subsequent Senate hearing on 26 May, Senator John Kennedy, a Louisiana Republican, asked how Dr Fauci could be sure that Wuhan scientists did not use the money for gain-of-function research.
> 
> "You never know," Dr Fauci conceded, while adding that he believed the Chinese researchers were "trustworthy".


----------



## tony.c (Jun 5, 2021)

I was just listening to BBC Radio 4 Today program and there was an interview with Professor Marc Van Ranst, a Belgian virologist. He has been targeted by a far right Covid denying Begian army sniper who has been on the run from his barracks since 18 May. I don't remember see anything about this on here, and couldn't find anything when I searched though it was reported in UK press on 19 May.








						Belgium's Van Ranst: Covid scientist targeted by a far-right sniper
					

Many scientists have come under attack in the pandemic, but Marc Van Ranst's family are in a safe house.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Yossarian (Jun 5, 2021)

Good front page from Australia's NT News.


----------



## teuchter (Jun 5, 2021)

Anti vax types will definitely change their minds when they read that.


----------



## elbows (Jun 5, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Anti vax types will definitely change their minds when they read that.



They arent the target. The target is the wavering group in between.


----------



## Dystopiary (Jun 5, 2021)

tony.c said:


> I was just listening to BBC Radio 4 Today program and there was an interview with Professor Marc Van Ranst, a Belgian virologist. He has been targeted by a far right Covid denying Begian army sniper who has been on the run from his barracks since 18 May. I don't remember see anything about this on here, and couldn't find anything when I searched though it was reported in UK press on 19 May.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


"In the days that followed Jürgen Conings' disappearance, a support group was created for the ex-soldier on Facebook. Before being closed down, it had attracted nearly 50,000 members. It's this group that worries Prof Van Ranst more than his assailant."



Spoiler









[/ISPOILER]


----------



## Dandred (Jun 6, 2021)

Bullshit or real?



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-lab-leak-theory-intelligence-biden/2021/05/28/786d57ac-bfe6-11eb-83e3-0ca705a96ba4_story.html?_gl=1*1k1kxye*_ga*WkpQc0EtRXpGNWhTaUcxQlBLaHgxWkw4ekxkbmNXQ2JSRTl2Z1JIMzBLdXZkWlJFY1doVWtNVkVZVFB3a3lOQQ


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2021)

Dandred said:


> Bullshit or real?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-lab-leak-theory-intelligence-biden/2021/05/28/786d57ac-bfe6-11eb-83e3-0ca705a96ba4_story.html?_gl=1*1k1kxye*_ga*WkpQc0EtRXpGNWhTaUcxQlBLaHgxWkw4ekxkbmNXQ2JSRTl2Z1JIMzBLdXZkWlJFY1doVWtNVkVZVFB3a3lOQQ



It isnt possible to know with the currently available info, the shift in recent weeks is only enough to make people open their minds to the possibility rather than be able to reach a conclusion.

I've discussed it plenty on this thread. Skim the thread from this post onwards: Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more


----------



## redsquirrel (Jun 6, 2021)

elbows said:


> They arent the target. The target is the wavering group in between.


Hmm, I suspect the target is more NT News readers/other media people - NT News is famously know for its headlines - such as "_Why I stuck a cracker up my clacker_". Perhaps not quite as off the wall as The Daily Star but not far off.


----------



## platinumsage (Jun 6, 2021)

Dandred said:


> Bullshit or real?
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/wuhan-lab-leak-theory-intelligence-biden/2021/05/28/786d57ac-bfe6-11eb-83e3-0ca705a96ba4_story.html?_gl=1*1k1kxye*_ga*WkpQc0EtRXpGNWhTaUcxQlBLaHgxWkw4ekxkbmNXQ2JSRTl2Z1JIMzBLdXZkWlJFY1doVWtNVkVZVFB3a3lOQQ



If you find caesium-137 on a beach outside a nuclear power station, where do you start your investigation into how it got there?


----------



## Supine (Jun 6, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> If you find caesium-137 on a beach outside a nuclear power station, where do you start your investigation into how it got there?



it’s not a great analogy as it’s well documented virus’s transfer from animals to humans. No labs required.


----------



## platinumsage (Jun 6, 2021)

Supine said:


> it’s not a great analogy as it’s well documented virus’s transfer from animals to humans. No labs required.



There are lots of sources of Cs-137, weapons tests, Chernobyl etc. The point is you start with the nearest and most obvious one, which in this would be the two labs in the whole world that do most work on novel coronaviruses located within a couple of miles of where the virus first appeared.


----------



## David Clapson (Jun 6, 2021)

Couldn't you argue that the nearest bat colony is the most obvious source?


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2021)

David Clapson said:


> Couldn't you argue that the nearest bat colony is the most obvious source?



That argument ends up pointing back at the labs because the known coronavirus bat colonies are a  long, long way away.


----------



## platinumsage (Jun 6, 2021)

And the bats' principle contact with humans is lab workers from Wuhan who went there looking for coronaviruses to bring to Wuhan.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-bats-china-wuhan/2021/06/02/772ef984-beb2-11eb-922a-c40c9774bc48_story.html
		


But sure, maybe a bat flew into a seafood market and pooped on a pangolin or something, that does need investigating too.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jun 6, 2021)

It's not like China doesn't have a record when it comes to the original SARS escaping a lab, which is why I have an open mind on it.  

From 2004 -



> The latest outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in China, with eight confirmed or suspected cases so far and hundreds quarantined, involves two researchers who were working with the virus in a Beijing research lab, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Monday (April 26).
> 
> "We suspect two people, a 26-year-old female postgraduate student and a 31-year-old male postdoc, were both infected, apparently in two separate incidents," Bob Dietz, WHO spokesman in Beijing, told us.
> 
> The woman was admitted to hospital on April 4, but the man apparently became infected independently 2 weeks later, being hospitalized on April 17. Both worked at the Chinese Institute of Virology in Beijing, part of China's Center for Disease Control.







__





						SARS escaped Beijing lab twice
					





					www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2021)

Plus people might have been more open to such possibilities if they had been properly primed by repeated references to such history before now. eg as well as the various SARS 1 accidents, regular readers will recall that I am fond of drawing attention to the plausibility of H1N1 influenza having returned to the human scene, after decades away, in the late 1970s because of a lab accident. It was hard to single out a specific lab in that case, but there were other strong indicators such as the strain involved being a strain used in labs in decades past. A strain that should have mutated more by then if it had been lurking in the wild in the intervening years. And an appropriate context too - there had been a big H1N1 pandemic scare a year or so before (involving a new and different version of H1N1 that ended up never turning into a pandemic, never having got beyond a US army base outbreak), which lead to much intense lab research in regards vaccines etc for H1N1 strains. And then someone probably dropped a bollock and boom, we had a pandemic in the young as a result (older people werent so affected as their bodies had met that version of flu in the past, before it was usurped by H2N2 in the 1950s).


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jun 6, 2021)

MrSki said:


> Melbourne's lockdown extended for another 7 days.




Yes it's causing some disruption and a 2 week hard lock down for metro Melbourne, but there are reduced restrictions in regional and rural Victoria. It's just come into winter in Australia.(June 1st)  Melbourne have been locked down more than  the rest of the country.

I work for a big company. We have managers who have been trying to get back out there nationally, stuck all over the place atm.

I see Labours request to build a Qld regional quarantine centre has been turned down by the PM again.   Victoria can have one which is good, but they're going to use both urban hotels and the quarantine centre which sort of defeats the object  

There are a lot of Australians who want to come back, and the MP says he wants to help them come home, and hotels can process returnees faster.  He's going to the G8 and wants to look good.

All the outbreaks we've seen here have been from a quarantine breach. Not on purpose, through accident, carelessness, unknown, selfishness, ignorance. At the start the cruise ship breech! And now oh&s breaches leading to covid leaking into the middle of cities from quarantine hotels.

Outside of that we don't have covid. No community transmission..people getting it can be tracked and traced to a quarantine leak by however many degrees of separation. Only we have the Indian variant ( is it Delta?) In Victoria now, and it seems to be able to pass on by less contact time even outside.


So now  it's getting a bit more urgent so the PM has thrown some $$,  air time and a 3 star General at vaccine hesitancy, and and the vaccination roll out. Also because he's going to be asked about this at the G8 too I imagine.









						Palaszczuk’s second Queensland quarantine plan denied
					

"The main resistance" to the Queensland proposal appears to be a belief that Annastacia Palaszczuk is trying to "fully replace hotel quarantine with the new system," says Sky News Political Editor Andrew Clennell.  Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk launched a scathing attack on Prime...




					www.skynews.com.au


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> Only we have the Indian variant ( is it Delta?) In Victoria now, and it seems to be able to pass on by less contact time even outside.



Yes it is Delta.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jun 6, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> Good front page from Australia's NT News.
> 
> View attachment 272003


You can see why people in the Northern Territory aren't rushing out to get vaccinated..


----------



## 2hats (Jun 6, 2021)

All looks good to me. No chance that anything could possibly go wrong here.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jun 6, 2021)

2hats said:


> All looks good to me. No chance that anything could possibly go wrong here.




Can't blame them, considering the law passed in Florida.   



> Royal Caribbean International on Friday announced a change in its policy, saying vaccinations against the coronavirus will be optional for cruise ship passengers.
> 
> “Guests are strongly recommended to set sail fully vaccinated, if they are eligible. Those who are unvaccinated or unable to verify vaccination will be required to undergo testing and follow other protocols, which will be announced at a later date,” the company said in its announcement.
> 
> *The move comes after Florida passed a law that will fine companies $5,000 each time they ask customers if they are vaccinated against the coronavirus, the Miami Herald reported.*


----------



## Yossarian (Jun 6, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> You can see why people in the Northern Territory aren't rushing out to get vaccinated..
> View attachment 272121



Yep, easy to see why people don't feel a sense of urgency, though it's all the more reason to step up vaccination - a population where almost nobody has COVID and few have been vaccinated is very fertile ground for the new variants to get out of control with frightening speed, as has been happening in Taiwan.


----------



## 2hats (Jun 6, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Can't blame them, considering the law passed in Florida.


Or just ask people if they are unvaccinated and then only permit such people onboard. Hey presto - quarantine ships!


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2021)

I havent thought of a suitable joke involving waves but I bet there is one.


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2021)

littlebabyjesus and others may find this thread on twitter of interest. I know I did.


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2021)

Also of tragic interest.


----------



## Supine (Jun 6, 2021)

Interview with a German virologist who is an expert on corona virus. It’s translated but really interesting. Touches on lab leaks, herd immunity and lots of other subjects. Recommended.









						Herr Drosten, woher kam dieses Virus?
					

Laborunfall oder Pelztierindustrie? Wo der deutsche Virologe Christian Drosten den Ursprung der Pandemie vermutet. Und seine Antwort auf die wichtigste Frage: Ist diese Pandemie jetzt wirklich vorbei?




					bit.ly


----------



## Supine (Jun 6, 2021)

Evidence still indicates a natural transmission not lab. Some good detail here.



			https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/virus-origins-nature-lab/2021/06/03/dd50eb62-c4a9-11eb-93f5-ee9558eecf4b_story.html


----------



## yield (Jun 6, 2021)

Dr. Fauci Backed Controversial Wuhan Lab with U.S. Dollars for Risky Coronavirus Research
Newsweek. 4/28/20


> last year, the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the organization led by Dr. Fauci, funded scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and other institutions for work on gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses.
> 
> In 2019, with the backing of NIAID, the National Institutes of Health committed $3.7 million over six years for research that included some gain-of-function work. The program followed another $3.7 million, 5-year project for collecting and studying bat coronaviruses, which ended in 2019, bringing the total to $7.4 million.





> Many scientists have criticized gain of function research, which involves manipulating viruses in the lab to explore their potential for infecting humans, because it creates a risk of starting a pandemic from accidental release.


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2021)

Supine said:


> Interview with a German virologist who is an expert on corona virus. It’s translated but really interesting. Touches on lab leaks, herd immunity and lots of other subjects. Recommended.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I like a lot of what he says, but I never really understand why some people like him, when explaining the lab stuff and the unnecessarily hard work it would take to tinker around and create SARS-CoV-2, tend to only bring up the possibility of SARS-1 being the starting point for that work. This is also relevant when he goes on about the backbone of SARS-2 being so different to SARS-1. The problem I have with this is that surely its possible that the lab in question had in their collection of samples from nature a variety of different backbones, since they were not dealing only with the well known SARS 1, but also an array of other bat coronavirus samples? 

Its good that he started going on about T cells when talking about immunity and how he expects vaccines to work beyond the period where we see neutralising antibody levels dropping off, fears about variants effect on skirting round the antibody side of things etc. 

I cannot quite share his level confidence about some of the stuff at this stage, I want to leave quite a bit more wiggle room for now at least. And thats certainly the case for me when the subject of how much more room this virus has to pull off some new tricks via mutation comes up. Its the sort of thing where I really want to buy into his view on that, but I am wary, it will take time before I can solidify such reassurances in my mind. Especially because I'd heard early on in the pandemic all the reassuring stuff about how slowly these coronaviruses mutate, which when coupled with the fact I dont like the medias big book of pandemic mutation cliches, caused me to say reassuring things about mutations earlier in this pandemic. Given the trouble with variants we've had since then, some of what I said early on about that is now on my list of regrets, so I dont feel like potentially repeating that mistake again at this stage. As with so many other details, I have to wait, its the only way my confidence about such things an improve.


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2021)

yield said:


> Dr. Fauci Backed Controversial Wuhan Lab with U.S. Dollars for Risky Coronavirus Research
> Newsweek. 4/28/20



At the end of the following post I made on Friday, there are quotes where Fauci explicitly denied that the funding was for gain-of-function research. I currently have an open mind about whether he is bending the truth with that denial. Maybe its possible to have a tedious debate about what counts as gain-of-function research, and thats in play now, I dont know.









						Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more
					

The lab leak theory stuff continues to deliver stories that dont offer new clues into the origins, just some insight into the ways various people dismissed and closed down discussion of the matter in the past, and the reframing that is taking place now. As expected, its now more common to see...




					www.urban75.net


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2021)

Supine said:


> Evidence still indicates a natural transmission not lab. Some good detail here.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/virus-origins-nature-lab/2021/06/03/dd50eb62-c4a9-11eb-93f5-ee9558eecf4b_story.html



I expect I would find things to agree with and also some things to criticise or at least some things missing from that article, if I could actually read it. But its behind a paywall.


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2021)

Supine said:


> Interview with a German virologist who is an expert on corona virus. It’s translated but really interesting. Touches on lab leaks, herd immunity and lots of other subjects. Recommended.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I forgot to say that the article didnt exactly get off to a great start for me when I read stuff like this in the opening section:



> We enter the office, Professor Drosten gets up from behind his desk and says we could take off the masks, he has already been vaccinated twice.


----------



## elbows (Jun 6, 2021)

The other rather bloody obvious problem with taking Drostens view on lab stuff as the whole picture is that he is hardly neutral in the whole debate about gain-of-function studies. 

It is quite easy for example to discover that he was one of the scientists who signed up to the "scientists for science" formal statement in support of gain-of-function research, back in 2014 when that topic was last a big issue. Scientists voice support for research on dangerous pathogens

Obviously people who work in that field may have a number of reasons to support the continued funding etc for such work. And they are likely to be focussed on the good that can be achieved, and their role in doing good, rather than uncomfortable possibilities of doing harm if mistakes are made. There are exceptions, people involved who are more uneasy, less assured, more willing to attribute a greater sense of risk to such work. Drosten seemingly wasnt one of those people at that time at least.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jun 7, 2021)

elbows said:


> I expect I would find things to agree with and also some things to criticise or at least some things missing from that article, if I could actually read it. But its behind a paywall.



Here you go, elbows -



Spoiler: Full article - part 1



From the moment the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, emerged in Wuhan, China, scientists and the broader public have sought answers to some fundamental questions: Where did this virus come from? How did the pandemic start? From the early days, experts have considered two possibilities. Either the virus somehow escaped from a laboratory, perhaps the Wuhan Institute of Virology, or, like countless viruses throughout history, it arrived through zoonotic spillover, jumping from animals to humans.

More than a year later, we still don’t know exactly what happened. Though governments and news organizations have focused more attention recently on the notion that the virus leaked from a lab, it’s unclear that we’ll ever identify a theory that satisfies everyone as to how SARS-CoV-2 emerged. Ironically, given the recent prominence of the lab escape theory, the questions the world wants answered about the virus — and the astonishingly fast development of the vaccines that can quash the pandemic — depend entirely on research conducted in labs like the Wuhan Institute of Virology and across the world over the past several decades. This fundamental research underpins our ability to prepare for and respond to pandemics. We need to know what’s out there and what kind of viral threats we face. The only way to do that is to go where the viruses are, with our colleagues who are already there.


In March 2020, a group of renowned evolutionary virologists analyzed the genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 and found it was overwhelmingly likely that this virus had never been manipulated in any laboratory. Like the earlier coronaviruses SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, they theorized, it “spilled over” from its natural reservoir host (bats) to a new one (humans). Viruses jump species frequently, with unpredictable consequences. Often a virus hits an evolutionary dead end if it cannot adapt to the new host rapidly enough to be transmitted again. Sometimes, however, it can. Clues that reveal this scenario can be found by analyzing the sequence of the virus genome, and that’s exactly what this study did.


The study carefully examined whether key elements of the virus, particularly the spike protein on its surface, appeared engineered. They did not. The spike didn’t optimally bind to its receptor, ACE-2, and the interaction between the two proteins was unpredictable even using the most advanced computer algorithms. Another key feature often cited as evidence of laboratory origin is the furin cleavage site, where the spike protein is cut in half to “activate” viral material for entry into cells. The viruses most closely related to SARS-CoV-2 don’t have this site, but many others do, including other human coronaviruses. The furin site of SARS-CoV-2 has odd features that no human would design. Its sequence is suboptimal, meaning its cleavage by the enzyme furin is relatively inefficient. Any skilled virologist hoping to give a virus new properties this way would insert a furin site known to be more efficient. The SARS-CoV-2 site has more of the hallmarks of sloppy natural evolution than a human hand. Indeed, a timely analysis last year showed convincingly that it is a product of genetic recombination, a natural feature of coronavirus replication and evolution.


Unfortunately, the pandemic has provided many opportunities to observe SARS-CoV-2 evolution in humans as it unfolds — and confidence in its natural origin has grown over time. The molecular handshake between SARS-CoV-2 and ACE-2, seemingly unique in early 2020, turns out to be found in several related viruses and has since evolved to be a better fit. Its ability to infect human cells also turns out to be unremarkable. A related virus discovered in pangolins infects human cells even more readily than SARS-CoV-2. The virus behind the pandemic may be special in its impact on our lives and the global economy, but the way it infects us isn’t unique at all.
The evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 further undermines claims that the virus is obviously artificial and designed for human transmission. Early in the pandemic, a mutation called D614G took hold and spread rapidly around the world, showing that the virus was adapting to its host from the very beginning. Since then, mutations in the region of the spike protein that binds ACE-2, as well as near the furin cleavage site, show continued adaptation. Several of these are found repeatedly in different variants of concern and almost certainly contribute to increased transmissibility. SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve. It wasn’t perfectly tuned for humans when it appeared, just good enough.

The epidemiological evidence in the World Health Organization’s origins mission report from this spring further bolsters the natural-origin hypothesis. Among early cases, 55 percent had had exposure to wildlife markets, and the growth of the outbreak over time, both in cases and excess deaths, clearly shows that the neighborhood surrounding the Huanan market was the initial center of the epidemic in Wuhan. It’s true that 45 percent of cases could not be linked to a market, but the silent spread of SARS-CoV-2 that has made it so hard to control also makes it difficult to rule out such connections. Yes, the WHO’s mission was imperfect and hampered by political forces in China and elsewhere; even the organization’s director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has nodded to those limitations by calling for a more thorough examination of the possibility of a lab escape. We don’t disagree about the benefits of doing so, and perhaps the U.S. government’s 90-day intelligence review will turn up compelling new information. We must consider every possibility — but our priorities should be guided by what is most likely. There are still missing pieces of data, including those unlinked cases and inadequate animal sampling, but most of the data we do have points heavily toward natural origin.



* I've had to split it over 2 posts, as it's too long for one.

I use the 'Bypass Paywalls - Chrome' extension, it's also available for Firefox, it's very good.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jun 7, 2021)

Spoiler: Full article - part 2



Some of the public consideration of a lab escape has focused on a kind of research known as gain-of-function, and whether such experiments could have given rise to SARS-CoV-2. This work is defined by the National Institutes of Health as research on influenza, MERS-CoV or SARS coronaviruses with the potential to enhance transmissibility by aerosol droplet or pathogenicity in mammals. A subset of that research, done at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and some labs in the United States, has involved constructing “chimeric” coronaviruses, where the spike protein of one virus is inserted into the genetic backbone of another, typically the original SARS-CoV or a bat coronavirus called WIV1 used at the Wuhan lab. This allows scientists to study the properties of the spike protein within the context of a well-understood system and make direct comparisons about virulence with a known virus.

These experiments carry some risk, as noted by researchers who have engaged in them, and it’s appropriate to consider the balance between that risk and their benefits.
Understandably then, some people have wondered whether these types of experiments could have produced SARS-CoV-2. The answer is, in this case, not really. In theory, if you had the right viruses in your catalogue, sure. But there are no indications that anyone had ever seen this virus nor any viruses similar enough to serve as its genetic building blocks before SARS-CoV-2 emerged in the population.


The Wuhan institute’s most recent chimeric virus used a very different coronavirus as its genetic backbone. Looking at the body of research produced there, it’s clear that scientists were laser-focused on the bat viruses related to SARS-CoV, which spurred research on coronaviruses worldwide after it emerged in 2003 because of its pandemic potential. There’s just no trace of SARS-CoV-2 in the lab, and if the SARS-CoV-2 progenitor or its building blocks weren’t in the lab before the pandemic, the pandemic could not have started there — even accidentally. This precludes the possibility that SARS-CoV-2 evolved via serial passage in cell culture, or repeated rounds of infection of other cells in a lab, as do other observations about the virus. In standard cell culture, features like the furin cleavage site that are crucial for transmission and disease in humans are rapidly lost as the virus begins adapting to the vervet monkey kidney cells typically used to grow it. For the past 18 months, virologists around the world have been studying SARS-CoV-2 in the laboratory, and they have not seen any evidence that it becomes more dangerous to humans in the lab. The opposite is true: The virus loses features key to transmissibility and virulence, forcing researchers to innovate new culture methods to allow the study of antivirals or vaccines.


It does seem like quite a coincidence that the pandemic started in Wuhan, which has one of the world’s leading coronavirus research labs, and that’s surely helped raise questions about a possible leak. But in addition to being a coronavirus research center, Wuhan is a city of 11 million people, home to a major transportation hub that is connected to every other part of China, as well as wildlife markets supplied by farms throughout the country. The presence of the lab in the city where the pandemic emerged is simply not suspicious enough on its own to outweigh what we know about the virus.
We agree that researchers should continue to study whether the virus could have emerged from a lab, but this cannot come at the expense of the search for animal hosts that could have transmitted SARS-CoV-2 to humans. Getting better answers will take rigorous scientific work — and cooperation from China. As frustrating as obfuscation by the Chinese government is, the answers are there. If we make accusations and demands that aren’t firmly grounded in evidence, we run the real risk of having no origins investigations at all.

The only reason we can evaluate the genomic and virological evidence in a scientifically informed way, and the only reason we have vaccines so quickly, is decades of research on coronaviruses. We’d be years behind the curve without this fundamental knowledge, which resulted from gain-of-function studies and surveys of coronaviruses in bats and other wild animals. How many are there? Where are they? Can they infect us? How might they compare with the original SARS-CoV, which caused a global epidemic in 2003? An even bigger question looms now: Can we design vaccines that might protect us against all related coronaviruses? Research is progressing, but testing vaccine candidates will require finding out what viruses are out there. Again, we have to work with colleagues in China, where the viruses are, to do that.


As the vaccines start to bring the pandemic under control in the United States, the fundamental truth about how to identify and fight dangerous viruses hasn’t changed: Preparing for pandemics, global crises by definition, demands a global response. We must approach this collaboratively — and objectively recognize what the data shows. This virus is more likely to be a product of nature than a product of a laboratory. Letting politics lead us toward other conclusions won’t help keep anyone safer.


----------



## elbows (Jun 7, 2021)

Cheers. The same old stuff then - logical, important to understand, but deliberately narrow and leading.

Put simply, a lot of their logic relies on the idea that nothing very similar/the same as SARS-CoV-2 was in the lab. But its really hard for me to exclude that possibility. Because if it was in nature, and the lab specialised in collecting samples from the natural world, then how can I really rule that out?

Of course thats not the same as me having compelling evidence that it did come from the lab. Its just that I dont find the logic used to exclude or diminish that possibility to be all that compelling. Plus such articles dont seem able to resist including all the usual justifications for doing lab research with these viruses, which in my book handily ends up underlining their preferences and blindspots, some of the motivations for closing down or diminishing the various lab-related theories.

Dont get me wrong, me being able to pick a few holes in these sorts of articles is not proof of anything. It is only justification for me retaining an open mind on the subject. And entirely natural origins that didnt involve the virus passing through the lab are still very much part of my thoughts, I've seen nothing that would even begin to rule out such possibilities.


----------



## elbows (Jun 7, 2021)

Or to put it another way, when I worry about new pandemics, its all about animal-human interactions. That includes the meat trade and the fur trade and all the other stuff we hear about in that regard. But I put lab stuff in exactly the same category, its on the list of theoretical opportunities for a virus that has been lurking in certain animals to gain the opportunity to infect a human and then infect more humans.


----------



## elbows (Jun 8, 2021)




----------



## cupid_stunt (Jun 8, 2021)

I still think the 'Joints for Jabs' offer in the US is the best offer so far.   









						‘Joints for Jabs’: US state allows free cannabis to promote shots
					

Washington becomes the latest US state to offer a creative way to encourage COVID vaccinations.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## David Clapson (Jun 9, 2021)

Er...is this new news? Vegetarians and pescatarians are at lower risk of severe Covid. This research published in the BMJ Journal concludes:



> In six countries, plant-based diets or pescatarian diets were associated with lower odds of moderate-to-severe COVID-19. These dietary patterns may be considered for protection against severe COVID-19.


----------



## William of Walworth (Jun 9, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> I still think the 'Joints for Jabs' offer in the US is the best offer so far.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


As an attempt at quashing conspiranoia around anti-vaccionation hatred (  ), they should be offering that deal (man!  ) around the crystal-bothering shops  and headshops of Glastonbury very soon   

I've got a feeling __ that anti-vaccination resistence might decline a little bit if incentive-spliff  was on offer ..... there might even become unexpected _actual __competition_ between loons and the sane for jabs, around certain parts of Somerset!!  

Will report back on the above theory after we and van get to Glastonbury town in early July   { Eva Luna  )


----------



## Chilli.s (Jun 9, 2021)

Lets face it, if puff is too dangerous to be legally available then selling the idea that a vaccine is safe and sensible is gonna be a whole lot harder for numpties to get to grips with.


----------



## elbows (Jun 9, 2021)

On the lab theory again, this is what happens if you are some sort of distinguished scientist but talk shit and use unwise language, probably straying well beyond your area of expertise at the same time. I think I'd rather listen to generalists and armchair observers than the percentage of experts who appear very capable of arrogance and overrating their own abilities, making sloppy mistakes and proclamations.









						Leading biologist dampens his ‘smoking gun’ Covid lab leak theory
					

Nobel laureate David Baltimore says he overstated case, and the origins of the virus are still unknown




					www.theguardian.com
				




Not only did he use stupid language like smoking gun, but it seems he got specific details all wrong too.

I cannot comment on whether the Guardian is correct to say that his claims were a significant driver of the resurgence of interest in this angle. I dont think I'd ever heard of him or his claims until I read the above article today, but I could be wrong about that if my memory isnt up to scratch.


----------



## elbows (Jun 9, 2021)

Meanwhile in terms of background data relevant to the non-lab theories, I see there is a recent article in Nature which details what animals were sold at Wuhans markets in a several year period leading up to the pandemics first known outbreak. Pangolins continue to be 'off the hook' in terms of indicators of what the intermediate host might have been, since apparently none are in these records (and no bats either). There seems to be quite a long lsit of other potential candidates.









						Animal sales from Wuhan wet markets immediately prior to the COVID-19 pandemic - Scientific Reports
					

Here we document 47,381 individuals from 38 species, including 31 protected species sold between May 2017 and November 2019 in Wuhan’s markets. We note that no pangolins (or bats) were traded, supporting reformed opinion that pangolins were not likely the spillover host at the source of the...




					www.nature.com


----------



## Supine (Jun 9, 2021)

Can we have a separate thread for this origins stuff please? It all veers into conspiracy and unscientific reasoning very quickly. I’d prefer to avoid it if possible.


----------



## elbows (Jun 9, 2021)

Supine said:


> Can we have a separate thread for this origins stuff please? It all veers into conspiracy and unscientific reasoning very quickly. I’d prefer to avoid it if possible.


Not when I talk about it it doesnt. Your attitude towards it is clear, but I intend to carry on ignoring your narrow attitude towards the matter. I havent noticed anyone else descending into conspiracy rubbish about it here either, so I dont share your concerns about that aspect as it relates to this particular forum either.


----------



## elbows (Jun 9, 2021)

More broadly I am sorry that we arent taking advantage of more separate threads about all sorts  of things in general. But as the pandemic has gone on, we have tended to be left with a handful of active threads that cover a fairly broad range, with many other threads having lost all momentum. 

I will of course listen to other views on whether the lab stuff should be allowed to be discussed on this thread. Despite my rudeness I'll even take yours into account, but not in isolation given your obvious bias.


----------



## Supine (Jun 9, 2021)

elbows said:


> I will of course listen to other views on whether the lab stuff should be allowed to be discussed on this thread. Despite my rudeness I'll even take yours into account, but not in isolation given your obvious bias.



FFS I only asked and said please, no need to be a dick about it. Carry on bombarding the forum I ain’t the boss around here.


----------



## elbows (Jun 9, 2021)

Sorry about that. I may have severely misjudged the ways in which me going on about it does your head in.


----------



## elbows (Jun 9, 2021)

With that in mind, next time I want to talk about some detail of it I will resurrect an older thread about it and will see how it goes. If someone else mentions it on this thread though, I will find it hard not to join it.


----------



## teqniq (Jun 9, 2021)

Lol:









						Washington state allows free marijuana with COVID vaccines
					

Several U.S. states have set up promotions and lotteries to encourage residents to get their COVID vaccines.




					www.newsweek.com


----------



## weltweit (Jun 9, 2021)

I am against taking content away from this thread, as time has gone by more and more content has gone to other dedicated threads, one has to ask what is left for this thread?

There can easily be more than one conversation in one thread. IMO.


----------



## maomao (Jun 9, 2021)

elbows said:


> Meanwhile in terms of background data relevant to the non-lab theories, I see there is a recent article in Nature which details what animals were sold at Wuhans markets in a several year period leading up to the pandemics first known outbreak. Pangolins continue to be 'off the hook' in terms of indicators of what the intermediate host might have been, since apparently none are in these records (and no bats either). There seems to be quite a long lsit of other potential candidates.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Where did they get the records of what animals were sold at the market? Pangolin meat is illegal in China which might not stop it being sold but it will stop its sale being recorded.


----------



## Yossarian (Jun 9, 2021)

elbows said:


> Meanwhile in terms of background data relevant to the non-lab theories, I see there is a recent article in Nature which details what animals were sold at Wuhans markets in a several year period leading up to the pandemics first known outbreak. Pangolins continue to be 'off the hook' in terms of indicators of what the intermediate host might have been, since apparently none are in these records (and no bats either). There seems to be quite a long lsit of other potential candidates.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I thought researchers had ruled out the Wuhan market after finding early cases from 2019 with no connection to the market, though they believe it acted as an "amplifier."


----------



## elbows (Jun 9, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> I thought researchers had ruled out the Wuhan market after finding early cases from 2019 with no connection to the market, though they believe it acted as an "amplifier."


The possibility certainly diminished in their minds, and I think they ruled out there being much chance of obtaining direct evidence via samples from that market.

There isnt much I've ruled out really, in more general terms.

I've gone rusty in regards knowledge of timing of known sequence of events in terms of early infections. Early on it was reasonable to point a finger at that market but like you say it may just have been the location of an early superspreading type event rather than earlier pandemic origin moments. I drew attention to that article in part to demonstrate the sort of animal candidates that are still in play as people continue to persue the natural, non-lab animal to human possibilities.


----------



## elbows (Jun 9, 2021)

maomao said:


> Where did they get the records of what animals were sold at the market? Pangolin meat is illegal in China which might not stop it being sold but it will stop its sale being recorded.


Theres loads of details about their methods in the piece. Too much for me to quote. So I'll just draw attention to one bit for now, and would recommend reading the full thing.



> Notably, vendors freely disclosed a variety of protected species on sale illegally in their shops, therefore they would not benefit from specifically concealing pangolin trade or the trade in any particular species, and so we are confident this list is complete


----------



## Yossarian (Jun 9, 2021)

elbows said:


> The possibility certainly diminished in their minds, and I think they ruled out there being much chance of obtaining direct evidence via samples from that market.
> 
> There isnt much I've ruled out really, in more general terms.
> 
> I've gone rusty in regards knowledge of timing of known sequence of events in terms of early infections. Early on it was reasonable to point a finger at that market but like you say it may just have been the location of an early superspreading type event rather than earlier pandemic origin moments. I drew attention to that article in part to demonstrate the sort of animal candidates that are still in play as people continue to persue the natural, non-lab animal to human possibilities.



It always seemed a little weird that the lab leak theory was criticised as being somehow racist when the prevailing theory at the time was that the pandemic was caused by Chinese people eating exotic animals from a filthy market.


----------



## elbows (Jun 9, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> It always seemed a little weird that the lab leak theory was criticised as being somehow racist when the prevailing theory at the time was that the pandemic was caused by Chinese people eating exotic animals from a filthy market.


I havent thought about that much, and it only takes a few words or a certain kind of framing to turn any of these theories into something racist.

I dont have a vivid memory of lab theory stuff being discredited via accusations of racism, but I can imagine a number of different ways that criticism could be applied. There are Trump-related ways to direct that criticism, and I think the plenty of people in the USA may be more alert to certain rather common racist tropes and stereotypes (partly as a consequence of  racist shit that was amplified by war propaganda). Stuff that I dont want to stumble around trying to describe properly myself, and so will just link to this wikipedia page about them instead. Stereotypes of East Asians in the United States - Wikipedia


----------



## LDC (Jun 10, 2021)

Not sure if this is the best thread for it, but thought it'd get more traffic here, so... here's a talk on the growing field of planetary health and its relationship to things like the emergence of zoonotic pandemics. I'm only ten minutes in but I know the speaker and he's sharp and very sound, so should be a interesting talk.









						Planetary Health: approaches to zoonotic spillover, indigenous health, and rainforest conservation
					

<p>As industrial civilization assaults the worlds remaining rainforests the health and cultural diversity of indigenous peoples is threat...




					media.ccc.de
				




"As industrial civilization assaults the worlds remaining rainforests the health and cultural diversity of indigenous peoples is threatened along with much of the biodiversity of the planet. In turn these human changes to ecosystems, combined with vast expansion of domestic animal populations, cause spillover of zoonotic diseases which threaten the health of people worldwide. As with HIV and Ebola, every death from COVID-19 is an environmental effect."


----------



## Indeliblelink (Jun 11, 2021)

Identification of novel bat coronaviruses sheds light on the evolutionary origins of SARS-CoV-2 and related viruses
					

A study of 411 bat samples collected in Yunnan province, China between 2019 and 2020 yields 24 full-length coronavirus genomes, including four viruses highly related to SARS-CoV-2 and three to SARS. The closest relative to SARS-CoV-2 infects a species of bats that is found in regions that extend...



					www.cell.com
				





> Despite the discovery of animal coronaviruses related to SARS-CoV-2, the evolutionary origins of this virus are elusive. We describe a meta-transcriptomic study of 411 bat samples collected from a small geographical region in Yunnan province, China, between May 2019 and November 2020. We identified 24 full-length coronavirus genomes, including four novel SARS-CoV-2 related and three SARS-CoV related viruses. _Rhinolophus pusillus_ virus RpYN06 was the closest relative of SARS-CoV-2 in most of the genome, although it possessed a more divergent spike gene. The other three SARS-CoV-2 related coronaviruses carried a genetically distinct spike gene that could weakly bind to the hACE2 receptor _in vitro_. Ecological modeling predicted the co-existence of up to 23 _Rhinolophus_ bat species, with the largest contiguous hotspots extending from South Laos and Vietnam to southern China. Our study highlights the remarkable diversity of bat coronaviruses at the local scale, including close relatives of both SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV.


----------



## not-bono-ever (Jun 18, 2021)

Why are new ventilators being trashed in a Miami-Dade landfill?
					

A resident who was taking some garbage to the South Dade Landfill was stunned to see pallets full of medical ventilators dumped as bulky trash.




					www.local10.com


----------



## 2hats (Jun 19, 2021)

New wave signal in many African countries (combinations of B.1.351 and B.1.617.2) and a couple of other notable ones.


----------



## Badgers (Jun 19, 2021)

The UK are doing better than Rwanda


----------



## sparkybird (Jun 20, 2021)

Brazil has 500,000 Covid deaths and warnings of more to come as they go into winter with only 15% vaccinated and Bolsonaro refusing to put in any measures to prevent the spread.








						Covid: Brazil hits 500,000 deaths amid 'critical' situation
					

Experts warn the outbreak could worsen amid a slow vaccination programme and the start of winter.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				



Why do we hear so little about what's going on in Latin America?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jun 20, 2021)

sparkybird said:


> Brazil has 500,000 Covid deaths and warnings of more to come as they go into winter with only 15% vaccinated and Bolsonaro refusing to put in any measures to prevent the spread.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



It's grim at 2,340 deaths per million/number 10 position, according to worldometers, but it's a lot worst in Peru, which is now in top position at 5,692 deaths per million, and is well ahead of Hungary on 3,108, in second position. 

Two other South American countries are in the top 20, Argentina on 1,946, and Colombia on 1,932, taking positions 17 & 18, the US is no. 20 on 1,854, all the other top 15 are European countries, with the UK at no. 19 on 1,876. 

Eastern Europe has been hit very hard with the latest wave, and we also hear so little about that. 

Although, of course, there's the question of accuracy of reporting, e.g. there's plenty of reports that the death rate in India could up to 10 times or more than the 278 deaths per million officially reported.

Grim all round TBH.


----------



## elbows (Jun 20, 2021)

Lets remember that the death figures figures for Peru are so high not just because of how bad its been there, which it has, but also because their government eventually did the right thing and had proper estimates done of what the real death numbers might be, as opposed to sticking with the huge undercount that was previously present in their official figures. If every country did the same then we would have a different impression of how countries compare.









						Peru has world’s worst per capita Covid toll after death data revised
					

Updated figures give country a per capita death toll of 500 per 100,000 people – double that of Brazil




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Flavour (Jun 20, 2021)

The official global death figure is sitting just under 4 million at present, but if we imagine that everywhere the undercounting has been similar to Peru, where they've just almost-tripled the death count, we can imagine the real global total of deaths to be well over 10 million. And if the actual confirmed number of cases is now not far off 200 million, we can safely assume the actual number of people who've had Covid is much higher. It could be 10% of the entire global population who've been infected at some point over the last 18 months.


----------



## elbows (Jun 20, 2021)

Yes the real death figure could easily be millions more than the official total. I dont try to come up with estimates at this stage though, I dont know how many millions it really is. I expect that eventually there will be more attempts to come up with global estimates and I will get round to reading the detail of some of them, but I cant bring myself to do that just yet.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Jun 21, 2021)

Looks like they've found the body of that soldier who was on the run in Belgium.









						Body discovered after search for Belgian far-right soldier
					

Initial evidence indicates body found in woods is that of Jurgen Conings




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Badgers (Jun 21, 2021)

Delta PLUS variant incoming then?


----------



## elbows (Jun 21, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Delta PLUS variant incoming then?



AY.1? What have you heard/seen in news etc that has led to this comment?


----------



## 2hats (Jun 21, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Delta PLUS variant incoming then?


You refer to AY.1 (B.1.617.2.1), which is B.1.617.2 with S:K417N, originally first observed in a number of travellers from Nepal to Japan? Only 6 more sequences added in the UK in the last week (so far).


----------



## Badgers (Jun 21, 2021)

elbows said:


> AY.1? What have you heard/seen in news etc that has led to this comment?











						'Delta Plus' variant of coronavirus found in MP: Officials
					

The development came even as the second wave of the pandemic is waning in Madhya Pradesh and restrictions imposed to prevent the spread of the infection are being eased.




					m.economictimes.com


----------



## 2hats (Jun 21, 2021)

It's been around in India since at least 5 April 2021.


----------



## Badgers (Jun 22, 2021)

2hats said:


> It's been around in India since at least 5 April 2021.


Ah, cheers


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Jun 23, 2021)

I was just browsing the Worldometers Covid data. I hadn't realised that Peru's deaths are at nearly 200k for a population of only 32m, which means that almost 1 in every 200 people in the country have died from Covid.   I can't imagine how devastating that will be for their future.

Edit: I see others had mentioned it recently too - haven't been following this thread regularly.


----------



## bimble (Jun 23, 2021)

er. according to my folks, Switzerland is about to open its borders, no quarantine and no covid tests required at all, to anybody from any country incl the Uk, india, whatever, who can show they've been vaccinated. From saturday. That seems a bit mad / desperate.


----------



## weltweit (Jun 23, 2021)

bimble said:


> er. according to my folks, Switzerland is about to open its borders, no quarantine and no covid tests required, to anybody from any country who can show they've been vaccinated. That seems a bit mad / desperate.


Yep, seems a bit odd. Perhaps their tourism industry is powerful there, but I imagine the ski season is well gone so summer tourism? Did you get an idea when they are going to make their announcement?


----------



## bimble (Jun 23, 2021)

They announced it today i believe, comes into effect this weekend. The Swiss usually so pragmatic, this does seem odd. 
They'll get all the tourists who can afford to go on holiday there I suppose, where a pizza is £30 etc.


----------



## elbows (Jun 23, 2021)

They've not got the best pandemic record, have made errors before. I think they pissed off some major EU countries by refusing to shut their ski resorts last winter, to give just one related example.


----------



## bimble (Jun 23, 2021)

elbows said:


> They've not got the best pandemic record, have made errors before. I think they pissed off some major EU countries by refusing to shut their ski resorts last winter, to give just one related example.


Yes their vaccination system was truly shitty too, with no excuse for it. 
Slow, late, madly regional & my dad still being told by his doc to not bother with a second jab because he had the covid.


----------



## elbows (Jun 24, 2021)

The situation is difficult in New South Wales and they might have another lockdown.

I'm also quoting from this article as a demonstration of the sort of info you get when authorities have a rather different approach to this sort of thing compared to the UK.









						Sydney locked in a time warp as Bondi cluster, exposure locations swell
					

In a significant escalation of her rhetoric, Gladys Berejiklian told Parliament on Wednesday the government “will not hesitate to go further and harder if we have to” with restrictions.




					www.smh.com.au
				






> Four NSW Nationals MP, including Agriculture Minister Adam Marshall and upper house MPs Ben Franklin and Trevor Khan, are isolating after being contacted by NSW Health and told to get a COVID-19 test immediately. The group was at Christo’s Pizzeria.
> 
> Other alerts were issued on Wednesday for north-west Sydney’s 600 and 665 bus routes, bus 333 from Oxford Street, and trains running from Bondi to Mascot, Mascot to Central and Central to Glenfield. Diners who were at Surry Hills’ Lumiere Cafe on Monday and Nando’s Wetherill Park on Sunday night were also told to isolate and get tested.





> Late Wednesday night, diners at Tropicana Cafe in Darlinghurst on Friday between 12pm and 2pm and Ikaria Bondi in Bondi Beach on Sunday between 5pm and 7pm were told to get tested and isolate for 14 days. Alerts were also issued for Coles Express, Woolworths Metro in Bondi, BWS Mascot, United Cinema Narellen, Meadowbank Tafe, 338 Pitt Street and Coles King Cross in Potts Point.


----------



## elbows (Jun 24, 2021)

Israel is going to demonstrate how a pretty well vaccinated country may reimpose measures to try to cope with Delta.


----------



## High Voltage (Jun 26, 2021)

We now live in a post pandemic world... Except we don't. It's June and the world has already experienced more deaths from covid than we did in all of 2020--- IN JUNE


----------



## Petcha (Jun 26, 2021)

Hmm.. so apparently having stadiums full of screaming football fans, who are then let out to party the night away in a city which is completely ignoring covid and then flying them back to the own countries wasn't a good idea. Granted I'm not an epidemiologist. But er... 





> *This does not look good. *The city held six matches in ten days, and a number of Finnish fans returned home to test positive.


----------



## Flavour (Jun 26, 2021)

quelle surprise


----------



## Numbers (Jun 27, 2021)

This is not going to go well I suspect.

Covid-19: Crowds flee Dhaka ahead of strict Bangladesh lockdown


----------



## TopCat (Jun 27, 2021)

I’m getting anxious again.


----------



## William of Walworth (Jun 27, 2021)

Top Cat said:
			
		

> I’m getting anxious again.



Personally I'm not, for no particularly rational reasons 

But that Man in Shed (whose chats I tend to like in general, when I see them) offers some good and depressing perspective (see High Voltage 's post just above) about the extreme inequality of vaccination rates between poor and rich countries


----------



## spring-peeper (Jun 28, 2021)

Toronto clinic administers record-breaking 26,000+ doses in one day
					

Toronto has achieved a significant milestone in its vaccine campaign after 25,000 doses were administered at the Scotiabank Arena clinic on Sunday.




					toronto.ctvnews.ca
				






> As of 5 p.m., the city said more than 17,004 doses have been administered at the event dubbed as “Our Winning Shot,” surpassing the shots jabbed in one day at a Texas clinic in April.
> 
> The temporary mass immunization clinic also broke the Canadian record for shots given in a single-day in one clinic.
> 
> While beating the national and North American record may be worth celebrating, the goal is to vaccinate 25,000 Ontarians, which would possibly set a new world record.


----------



## Yossarian (Jun 30, 2021)

Hong Kong just declared Britain an "extremely high-risk" country and banned all arrivals - previously, arrivals from the UK had to spend 21 days in quarantine on arrival whether vaccinated or not.

Now, anybody who has spent more than 2 hours in Britain in the previous 21 days will be banned from boarding flights to HK.


----------



## MrSki (Jun 30, 2021)




----------



## Sue (Jul 1, 2021)

Was on a call with an Italian colleague yesterday. He's quarantining after visiting family there last week. He reckons numbers there are looking pretty low but says testing is also very low so what's actually going on is very unclear. (He's from the NE bit that was hit so badly initially.)


----------



## Chilli.s (Jul 1, 2021)

My pals in Cape Town are under lockdown again, no booze on sale, risk of arrest if out without a good reason.


----------



## LDC (Jul 1, 2021)

High Voltage said:


> We now live in a post pandemic world... Except we don't. It's June and the world has already experienced more deaths from covid than we did in all of 2020--- IN JUNE




I think I might want that t-shirt a lot...


----------



## Badgers (Jul 1, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> I think I might want that t-shirt a lot...


Me too. 

Plus this mask


----------



## 2hats (Jul 2, 2021)

Russian booster campaign begins already... booster doses recommended for vaccinated people every six months until at least 60% of the adult population is vaccinated. Any combination of Russian regulator approved vaccines is permitted.








						Moscow begins booster vaccine campaign as cases surge
					

Health clinics in Moscow will begin offering booster vaccine shots against COVID-19 on Thursday, the city's mayor said, as Russian officials scramble to contain a surge blamed on the highly infectious Delta variant.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## TopCat (Jul 2, 2021)

Restaurants and bars forced to shut due to staff isolating
					

The industry wants a "test to release" system to solve worker shortages as cases rise.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Chairman Meow (Jul 2, 2021)

Perth comes out of its four day lockdown tonight. We still have another nine days of restrictions (masks etc) but fingers crossed we will be back to normal on July 12th. They are halving the caps on returning Australians  to take the strain off the quarantine system, lots of stranded Aussies pissed off about that!


----------



## sideboob (Jul 3, 2021)

The Governor(mayor?) of Tokyo was hospitalized for 10 days due to fatigue.  Saw her on the news yesterday, coughing and looking like shit


----------



## krtek a houby (Jul 4, 2021)

Anti-vaxxers pulling the plugs on vaccines in Japan

_There is a fringe movement that seems to be trying to stop the vaccination rollout. It is led by anti-vaxxer and right-wing political candidate Masayuki Hiratsuka, who has campaigned on an anti-mask and COVID-denying platform well before he founded the Popular Sovereignty Party of Japan last year. His numerous Twitter and YouTube accounts have been terminated for posting false COVID-19 information. The platforms have also taken down sensational videos of him and his supporters boarding a train at Shibuya station, unmasked, in scheduled “cluster festivals.” Earlier this month, Hiratsuka, who is credited with starting the “pull-the-plug” campaign, posted an article reporting the loss of 158 vaccine doses due to an unplugged refrigerator unit in Oda city, writing: “Thanks! #pulltheplug.”_

Who the Hell Keeps Unplugging the Vaccine Fridges Right Before the Olympics?


----------



## 2hats (Jul 4, 2021)

> This week, at least 75 high school pupils were confirmed to have contracted the virus at a Tel Aviv end-of-year party, after a student was infected by a vaccinated relative. That relative contracted the virus from another vaccinated individual who had recently returned from London.











						Officials to weigh reimposing some virus restrictions as Delta variant spreads
					

75 pupils contract COVID-19 from a vaccinated person at school party in Tel Aviv; former Health Ministry deputy director calls to bring back 'Green Pass' system




					www.timesofisrael.com


----------



## 2hats (Jul 5, 2021)

2hats said:


> Russian booster campaign begins already... booster doses recommended for vaccinated people every six months until at least 60% of the adult population is vaccinated. Any combination of Russian regulator approved vaccines is permitted.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Worth noting that France is already offering (has been since April) third dose boosters to people with certain immune disorders, organ transplant recipients, kidney and liver diseases, rheumatological conditions, amongst others. In a number of cases those failed to exhibit signs of seroconversion after two doses do so after a third.








						Should People With Immune Problems Get Third Vaccine Doses?
					

France is handing out third shots of the two-dose vaccines to cancer patients and others with immune system impairments. In the United States, patients like these are on their own.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## 2hats (Jul 5, 2021)

This post, from the UK thread:


2hats said:


> A cautionary tale apparently from the Ministry of Health in Israel: in recent weeks a dramatic decline in the effectiveness of the vaccine (Pfizer BNT162b2) against corona infection has been observed.
> 
> Before June protection against infection was around 94%. From 6 June, five days after restrictions were all abolished, to recent (limit of current data), the effectiveness of the vaccine to infection, and mild disease, had dropped to 64%. Effectiveness in preventing hospitalisation dropped from 98% to 93% over this same period.
> 
> ...


relevant here, but also in the light of it prompting consideration of third dose boosters in Israel.


----------



## zahir (Jul 5, 2021)

Thread on the impact of delta in Vietnam


----------



## Aladdin (Jul 5, 2021)

At least 180 infected after Dutch disco despite showing Covid-19 certificates
					

Suspected mass spreading event in city of Enschede brings scrutiny on 'test for entry' system




					www.irishtimes.com
				




At least 180 infected after Dutch disco despite showing Covid-19 certificates​Fully vaccinated people caught covid at a Dutch disco.
This is what I am mainly worried about.


----------



## Chilli.s (Jul 5, 2021)

The freedom we're being sold aint the freedom that i want


----------



## teuchter (Jul 5, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> At least 180 infected after Dutch disco despite showing Covid-19 certificates
> 
> 
> Suspected mass spreading event in city of Enschede brings scrutiny on 'test for entry' system
> ...



No, that's not right - it doesn't say they were fully vaccinated.

It looks like a bunch of people, some of whom may have been partially vaccinated, caught covid.

All of them were supposed to be either fully vaccinated, or have a negative Covid test. But in fact many had either only just had their first jab, or they may have had faked "negative" tests (which are not reliable anyway).


----------



## elbows (Jul 5, 2021)

The Netherlands is also one of the countries that wanted to behave quite like the UK at the start of the pandemic. Like the UK they quickly had to change that plan because it was doomed, but its no surprise that they are especially gung ho about dropping various restrictions now.


----------



## Aladdin (Jul 5, 2021)

teuchter said:


> No, that's not right - it doesn't say they were fully vaccinated.
> 
> It looks like a bunch of people, some of whom may have been partially vaccinated, caught covid.
> 
> All of them were supposed to be either fully vaccinated, or have a negative Covid test. But in fact many had either only just had their first jab, or they may have had faked "negative" tests (which are not reliable anyway).




Dunno... 

They all have covid passes. 
Shouldn't have had those obviously if they were not fully vaccinated or tested negative for covid. 

Something was not functioning properly. Either the covid tests were not fully accurate or there were individuals who had been vaccinated who also had covid. 
Breakthrough covid is a thing... 
Just shows that with many precautions in place this slippery fecker of a virus can still get it way.


----------



## elbows (Jul 5, 2021)

This is why its a good idea to pay attention to what 2hats has been saying Israel have been noting recently. The limits of how much vacccination can achieve on its own when faced with the Delta variant. What sensible measures need to be considered again to help get the balance they seek in terms of keeping case numbers low.

Israel has long been a useful guide because they were ahead with their vaccination programme so some clues show up there first. But also they seem to care about keeping overall levels of infection down in a way the UK does not, or at least they will despair of rises more quickly than we do, and be less likely to balk at responding appropriately. So they might end up being a sensible guide to how to manage this situation without just sitting back and going 'well we've done vaccinations, cant be arsed to do much else, shrugs'.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jul 5, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> Dunno...
> 
> They all have covid passes.
> Shouldn't have had those obviously if they were not fully vaccinated or tested negative for covid.
> ...



Clearly it wasn't functioning properly...



> Mr Boxem also suggested that Covid certificates had been tampered with by customers, such as by sharing screenshots of negative tests. “There was cheating going on everywhere,” he said.





> Local media have also reported that people have been issued with vaccination certificates within a day of receiving the one-shot Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) vaccine, though the manufacturer advises that protection does not take full effect until about two weeks later.



No indication in that article that anyone was 'fully' protected by vaccines.


----------



## Aladdin (Jul 5, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Clearly it wasn't functioning properly...
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Ah right.  
I can only read half the article...


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jul 5, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> Ah right.
> I can only read half the article...



I forgot the Irish Times is behind a paywall, I have the _Bypass Paywalls_ extension for chrome installed on my laptop, works bloody well, although the bloody Times of London has recently updated their paywall, the bastards.


----------



## Aladdin (Jul 5, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> I forgot the Irish Times is behind a paywall, I have the _Bypass Paywalls_ extension for chrome installed on my laptop, works bloody well, although the bloody Times of London has recently updated their paywall, the bastards.


 That's handy.. thanks


----------



## 2hats (Jul 6, 2021)

A timely paper.


> Following the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in spring 2020, Europe experienced a resurgence of the virus starting in late summer 2020 that was deadlier and more difficult to contain. Relaxed intervention measures and summer travel have been implicated as drivers of the second wave. Here, we build a phylogeographic model to evaluate how newly introduced lineages, as opposed to the rekindling of persistent lineages, contributed to the COVID-19 resurgence in Europe. We inform this model using genomic, mobility and epidemiological data from 10 European countries and estimate that in many countries over half of the lineages circulating in late summer resulted from new introductions since June 15th. The success in onward transmission of newly introduced lineages was negatively associated with local COVID-19 incidence during this period. *The pervasive spread of variants in summer 2020 highlights the threat of viral dissemination when restrictions are lifted*, and this needs to be carefully considered by strategies to control the current spread of variants that are more transmissible and/or evade immunity. *Our findings indicate that more effective and coordinated measures are required to contain spread through cross-border travel even as vaccination begins to reduce disease burden.*


DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03754-2.


----------



## teuchter (Jul 6, 2021)

2hats said:


> A timely paper.
> 
> DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03754-2.





> The success in onward transmission of newly introduced lineages was negatively associated with local COVID-19 incidence during this period.


Does that sentence mean that new variants have a better chance of taking hold when local prevalance of Covid generally is low?


----------



## bimble (Jul 6, 2021)

i think it might be saying that, If there's a place where not much covid has happened at all yet, then that place is a great spreading ground for any new version because people's immune systems will be.. naive?
Nope i have no idea. Still confused.


----------



## teuchter (Jul 6, 2021)

bimble said:


> i think it might be saying that, If there's a place where not much covid has happened at all yet, then that place is a great spreading ground for any new version because people's immune systems will be.. naive?
> So back in Summer 2020, lots of cities would have been not much use at generating new variants, which same places, now, would be (?)
> Nope i have no idea. Still confused.


I'm not sure; I think it might be saying something slightly different which is that a new variant will have a harder time establishing itself if there's still a reasonable amount of 'old' version circulating, because it will be competing with it for hosts. The implication of that would be that a UK with very low covid prevalence this summer would be more at risk of seeing a new variant take hold, than a UK with quite high prevalence would be.


----------



## bimble (Jul 6, 2021)

teuchter said:


> I'm not sure; I think it might be saying something slightly different which is that a new variant will have a harder time establishing itself if there's still a reasonable amount of 'old' version circulating, because it will be competing with it for hosts. The implication of that would be that a UK with very low covid prevalence this summer would be more at risk of seeing a new variant take hold, than a UK with quite high prevalence would be.


If thats true then why are people saying that UK opening up now, with high & rising cases, is the perfect conditions for generating a new variant?


----------



## teuchter (Jul 6, 2021)

bimble said:


> If thats true then why are people saying that UK opening up now, with high & rising cases, is the perfect conditions for generating a new variant?


Good conditions for generating a new variant might not be the same conditions that are the best for a new variant (generated elsewhere) to take hold.


----------



## 2hats (Jul 6, 2021)

bimble said:


> i think it might be saying that, If there's a place where not much covid has happened at all yet, then that place is a great spreading ground for any new version because people's immune systems will be.. naive?


Degrees of immunity, but also perhaps (and quite possibly more so) degrees of behaviour.


----------



## Dystopiary (Jul 6, 2021)

COVID strikes men and women unequally – from exposure risk, to healthcare access, to mortality, and even rare adverse vaccine effects – but clinical trials are lagging on analyzing their data by sex. 

 

Thread from Prof Sabine Oertelt-Prigione:


----------



## 2hats (Jul 7, 2021)

Identification of a blood biomarker (IFI27, an interferon response gene) that could potentially be used to identify pre-symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (though differentiation from a co-circulating influenza will require further work). In a first wave study of healthcare workers it identified SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals with 84% sensitivity and 95% specificity, correlating with viral load and independent of prevailing symptoms. A subset of individuals were IFI27 positive up to a week before their first positive PCR test.
DOI: 10.1016/S2666-5247(21)00146-4.


----------



## Aladdin (Jul 8, 2021)

Ireland and Delta so far. 

Not great. 

Delta variant growth likely to ‘outmatch’ vaccine supply in coming weeks – Reid​








						Delta variant growth likely to ‘outmatch’ vaccine supply in coming weeks – Reid
					

Modelling showed cases numbers will rise during July and probably peak in August




					www.irishtimes.com


----------



## The39thStep (Jul 9, 2021)

Indoor dining in Portugal Friday night and weekends will require either a digital certificate of full vaccination or a negative test ( to be .sold in supermarkets and taken outside the establishment). Drinking outside on the terraces not affected but max 6 people at table still applies.


----------



## spring-peeper (Jul 9, 2021)

The premiere of the Canadian province of Quebec has a novel way of using vaccination card.

He will start issuing them to his fully vaccinated citizens in late September/early October.

The cards will be used in the event of another lockdown.
Fully vacinated people will not have to be in lockdown.  
They will be able to go to work and all the other perks that lockdown prevents.


----------



## 2hats (Jul 10, 2021)

Delta/B.1.617.2 modelled to become the dominate variant in Japan before the opening of the Olympic Games (95%CI indicates no later than 22 July).  Some sequencing data might suggest this has already happened, but sequence data over the last ~5 weeks has been sparse.





DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2021.26.27.2100570.


----------



## Badgers (Jul 10, 2021)

spring-peeper said:


> The premiere of the Canadian province of Quebec has a novel way of using vaccination card.
> 
> He will start issuing them to his fully vaccinated citizens in late September/early October.
> 
> ...


Love it


----------



## 2hats (Jul 10, 2021)

The Netherlands. When you plot on a log scale and it still looks like you need to plot on a log scale, then alarm bells should be ringing.

Perhaps opening nightclubs, bars, etc unrestricted is not such a good idea.








						Dutch reimpose COVID curbs as cases jump in young adults
					

The Dutch government reimposed COVID-19 curbs on nightclubs, music festivals and restaurants on Friday in an effort to halt a surge in COVID-19 infections among young adults.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## elbows (Jul 10, 2021)

Well to be fair it is a base-2 log scale rather than a base-10 log scale. But yeah, thats still an insanely short doubling time in their recent data! And those base-2 log scales sure are handy for easily seeing the doubling time.


----------



## bimble (Jul 10, 2021)

bimble said:


> I just got some news that’s brought home to me the absolute devastation that’s going on there. Old man who with his family has run a guesthouse in Delhi forever, that I’ve stayed at a few times over the years. He (goes by the Major) is in hospital with covid, and so is his daughter, and his wife died with it last week. Just unimaginable despair must be going on there, if one family can be hit like this. He’s very old.


Update.
the Major is dead, his wife (some 20+ years younger than him) is also dead, the daughter is still in hospital. their guesthouse in delhi is shuttered along with a load of other neighbouring concerns.
And all the hippies i know here who LOVE india so much because they went there once & got stoned are refusing the vaccine.


----------



## David Clapson (Jul 11, 2021)

Very gloomy tweets from Devi Sridhar: "Delta is a game-changer even for those countries which found a good path in 2020. All countries struggling now in how to cope. Prolonged restrictions carry major harms. Associated economic hit across the world being just as destructive as COVID itself. It’s becoming an impossible political situation- too dangerous a virus to let spread uncontrolled, more & more transmissible, & lockdown not a solution."


----------



## elbows (Jul 12, 2021)

2hats said:


> World's first SARS-CoV-2 human challenge trials, to better understand minimally infective viral loads, shedding and transmission.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



By the way the latest pubished SAGE minutes have this:



> Initial results from human challenge studies in unvaccinated young adults were reported verbally and will be reviewed in detail at NERVTAG before being discussed at SAGE.





			https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001160/S1300_SAGE_93_minutes_Coronavirus__COVID-19__response__7_July_2021.pdf


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jul 12, 2021)

Dutch PM apologises for reopening too soon
Restrictions on bars, restaurants and nightclubs have been reintroduced last Friday after 3 weeks.


----------



## Achieve Greatne (Jul 12, 2021)

France mandates Covid health pass for restaurants and cafés
					

The permits will also be required for entry to hospitals, shopping centres and to board long-distance trains




					www.theguardian.com
				




Will be interesting to see how this goes down with the French. Doesn't take much to throw the toys out the pram. Although not much point blocking the ports with a few burning cows right now.


----------



## Flavour (Jul 13, 2021)

I think there are a lot more cases in Italy than what is being reported. Testing levels are very low. But death rates also continue to be very low so the government is riding that wave of "maybe it won't be so bad" and I guess we'll just have to see how long that lasts. Nightclubs and other mass gatherings still banned.


----------



## bimble (Jul 13, 2021)

Some bits of India where there's serious issues with vaccine hesitancy have been running prize draws for those who do come forward & get jabbed, where you can win things like a fridge or an electric fan. It's not a bad idea obvs but is slightly reminiscent of the days when they used to hand out transistor radios to villagers who agreed to get a vasectomy. 








						COVID-19: Gold coins, appliances offered to inspire people to get vaccinated in Indian state
					

Initiative part of a campaign to encourage villagers who are reluctant to get the jab




					gulfnews.com


----------



## Flavour (Jul 14, 2021)

Spain very much back in the game









						Incidence rate of Covid-19 in Spain shoots up to 436 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, a level last seen in February
					

The Health Ministry is planning on passing a decree that will make home-testing kits available to members of the public without the need for a prescription




					english.elpais.com


----------



## Supine (Jul 18, 2021)

Malaysia seem to be doing well on vaccination rollout  

They appear to have photo booths you can use when jabbed


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jul 19, 2021)

Ha noi is in lockdown, food shops and parmacies only allowed to open (from a friend who lives there)
And this report from 3 days ago saying it faces medical collapse amid case rise


----------



## 2hats (Jul 19, 2021)

Freedom!! 🦠


----------



## Badgers (Jul 19, 2021)

2hats said:


> Freedom!! 🦠



#worldbeating


----------



## ruffneck23 (Jul 19, 2021)

Well that changed quickly


----------



## Badgers (Jul 19, 2021)

ruffneck23 said:


> Well that changed quickly
> 
> View attachment 279464


Once again leaving it to take hold before making sensible changes


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jul 19, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Once again leaving it to take hold before making sensible changes


only for and a bit months though, what could go wrong?


----------



## Badgers (Jul 19, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> only for and a bit months though, what could go wrong?



Understandably furious... 


> Nightclub owners are reacting angrily to news that Covid passports will be made mandatory in their venues from the end of September.
> 
> Michael Kill, CEO of the Night Time Industries Association, says so-called "freedom day" for night clubs "lasted around 17 hours" and the situation is "an absolute shambles".
> 
> He said only a week ago Health Secretary Sajid Javid said vaccine passports would not be compulsory.



It is a shit fest and the governcunts are trying to please businesses while ruining them. 

Just nightclubs or music venues? Pubs? Restaurants?


----------



## ruffneck23 (Jul 19, 2021)

I don’t know about you , but I knew this was coming, cos I always knew they were cunts


----------



## elbows (Jul 20, 2021)

We are not plagued by too many people here making stupid claims to back their anti-lockdown stances, but I'll highlight this anyway.



> Since early in the coronavirus pandemic, critics of unprecedented lockdown measures seen worldwide have argued that these interventions cause more harm than the disease itself. But an analysis of global health data suggests there is little evidence to support the idea that the cure is worse than the disease.











						Lockdowns do not harm health more than Covid, say researchers
					

Little evidence that social restrictions during the pandemic have added to rates of death and ill-health




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## elbows (Jul 20, 2021)

It also contains info for people who may be confused about how much death things like flu cause.



> “It is … one of the most compelling pieces of evidence to support the notion that the cure was not worse than the disease,” said Yamey. “It does seem that countries that acted quickly and aggressively often had fewer deaths than in previous years. One study showed that lockdown may have reduced annual mortality by up to 6% from eliminating flu transmission alone.”


----------



## David Clapson (Jul 20, 2021)

elbows said:


> We are not plagued by too many people here making stupid claims to back their anti-lockdown stances, but I'll highlight this anyway.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


But they didn't look at cancer. There are millions of tumours growing every day...tumours which would have been treated or removed had it not been for lockdowns.


----------



## elbows (Jul 20, 2021)

David Clapson said:


> But they didn't look at cancer. There are millions of tumours growing every day...tumours which would have been treated or removed had it not been for lockdowns.


The levels of infection caused the disruption to healthcare, not lockdowns.

If you want to keep a health service going, and stop too many people from being afraid to come forwards for treatment, you need to keep infection rates down.


----------



## David Clapson (Jul 20, 2021)

It's not that simple. Lockdowns discourage people from getting a diagnosis. From the Lancet:



> a study estimated that 45% of those with potential cancer symptoms did not contact their doctor during the UK's first wave of the pandemic (March–August, 2020), citing reasons including fear of contracting COVID-19 and avoiding placing extra strain on the NHS. Consequently, suspected cancer referrals fell by 350 000 compared with the same period in 2019. Combined with interruptions in cancer screening programmes and delays in scans and diagnostics, a spike in late cancer presentations and diagnoses is anticipated, making some previously curable tumours more difficult to treat and, unfortunately, further excess deaths unavoidable.







__





						DEFINE_ME
					





					www.thelancet.com


----------



## elbows (Jul 20, 2021)

Fear of contracting Covid and avoiding placing extra strain on the NHS are the reasons given there. Those happen without lockdowns, in fact they would be worse without lockdowns because the number of infections and the strain on the NHS would be worse without lockdowns.

By locking down late every time, the UK failed to reap all of the rewards of lockdown, getting the worst of both worlds in some ways at some stages.


----------



## elbows (Jul 20, 2021)

Indeed the UK went further with messaging about protecting the NHS, leading to what was effectively a period of 'protect the NHS, die at home' during the first wave. This was a terrible attempt to manage demand, which went even further in some regions where, for a few crucial weeks at least, the threshold for hospital admission was changed to reduce demand.

These, along with the number of infections in the first wave, resulted in an especially notable level of total excess deaths during the first wave in England.


----------



## 2hats (Jul 20, 2021)

David Clapson said:


> It's not that simple. Lockdowns discourage people from getting a diagnosis. From the Lancet:
> 
> 
> > a study estimated that 45% of those with potential cancer symptoms did not contact their doctor during the UK's first wave of the pandemic (March–August, 2020), *citing reasons including fear of contracting COVID-19 and avoiding placing extra strain on the NHS*. Consequently, suspected cancer referrals fell by 350 000 compared with the same period in 2019. Combined with interruptions in cancer screening programmes and delays in scans and diagnostics, a spike in late cancer presentations and diagnoses is anticipated, making some previously curable tumours more difficult to treat and, unfortunately, further excess deaths unavoidable.


That's not what that says. I suggest you try reading what you are quoting. The editorial only highlights there being a potential for a future increase in obesity-related cancers arising out of lockdown-related sedentary lifestyles for some.


----------



## David Clapson (Jul 20, 2021)

"I suggest you try reading what you are quoting." Are you Rik from the Young Ones? 

Dickhead.


----------



## editor (Jul 20, 2021)

Fuck's sake

Music festival in the Netherlands leads to over 1,000 Covid infections


----------



## Badgers (Jul 20, 2021)

editor said:


> Fuck's sake
> 
> Music festival in the Netherlands leads to over 1,000 Covid infections


Sad but not really a shock. 



> On Wednesday, a further 10,492 cases were reported in the country, higher than the average number of daily cases (8,395) over the past seven days. The majority of new cases are among people aged between 20-29 years.



Still doing far better that the UK tbf ^


----------



## editor (Jul 20, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Sad but not really a shock.
> 
> 
> 
> Still doing far better that the UK tbf ^


_Everywhere _is doing better than us!


----------



## BillRiver (Jul 20, 2021)

spring-peeper said:


> The premiere of the Canadian province of Quebec has a novel way of using vaccination card.
> 
> He will start issuing them to his fully vaccinated citizens in late September/early October.
> 
> ...



How will that be enforced?


----------



## Badgers (Jul 20, 2021)

editor said:


> _Everywhere _is doing better than us!


#ToryScum


----------



## Flavour (Jul 20, 2021)

It's pretty shit but the idea of condemning a % of the young and/or unvaccinated population to long covid is very appealing to most western governments right now, UK leading the pack but Netherlands right there with them


----------



## Supine (Jul 21, 2021)

World beating - Animation of germany vs UK results


----------



## Badgers (Jul 21, 2021)

Macron not fucking about 👊


----------



## Badgers (Jul 21, 2021)

Shocked I tell thee... 









						France achieves record Covid jabs with Macron’s ‘big stick’ approach
					

800,000 vaccinations in single day follows announcement that visits to many public venues will require a health pass




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Storm Fox (Jul 21, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Macron not fucking about 👊
> 
> View attachment 279747


This seems to be a strange concept... I can't remember what it's called.... 
....
Trying to remember .....
....
....
It's on the tip of my tongue....
....
Oh yes leadership, that's it leadership.


----------



## glitch hiker (Jul 21, 2021)

Had the Tories kept the restrictions they could have used that as leverage to persuade people to get their jabs. Now they've opened up some people, dunno how many, will say why bother?


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Jul 21, 2021)

The Tories seem to have this concept that the British are incredibly passionate about our individual freedoms, that we wouldn't stand for being ordered what to do by the government - basically that we're the same as Americans. I don't see it myself, and I'm not sure where the idea has come from.


----------



## redsquirrel (Jul 21, 2021)

Storm Fox said:


> This seems to be a strange concept... I can't remember what it's called....
> ....
> Trying to remember .....
> ....
> ...


Holding up a Neo-liberal cunt like Macron as a *leader* - fuck that. 
No mention of why people may not be taking up vaccinations, no mention of what support measures the government is going to put in place to help people. In fact this position is the same as the UK governments - "personal responsibility"


----------



## redsquirrel (Jul 21, 2021)

Incidentally this is the impact of Macron's _leadership._


----------



## Johnny Doe (Jul 22, 2021)

Buddy Bradley said:


> The Tories seem to have this concept that the British are incredibly passionate about our individual freedoms, that we wouldn't stand for being ordered what to do by the government - basically that we're the same as Americans. I don't see it myself, and I'm not sure where the idea has come from.



It's not a belief, it a device not to take responsibility. For anything.


----------



## two sheds (Jul 22, 2021)

Harry Smiles said:


> It's not a belief, it a device not to take responsibility. For anything.


Indeed, lets make wearing seatbelts voluntary, people should take responsibility for their own actions and fuck the emergency services who have to pull mangled bodies out of cars.


----------



## teqniq (Jul 22, 2021)

Interesting:









						Something's up: Why are Republicans suddenly pushing the Covid vaccine?
					

Republicans in Washington and at Fox News have suddenly embraced the Covid vaccine, openly-begging their followers to get it. Why? What happened to finally change their minds?




					cyberdisobedience.substack.com


----------



## elbows (Jul 22, 2021)

teqniq said:


> Interesting:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The author of that article ends up demonstrating via the following bit I'm quoting that the messaging in the USA has left people ill-prepared for the realities of how many vaccinated people will still catch it, and how some of them will still be hospitalised and die:



> Though, the good news is that it’s mostly going to hit the unvaccinated.



The binary thinking on that has been strong there, and there is a limited window of opportunity to get lots more people there vaccinated before the realities of the more complicated picture make themselves apparent.

The author is probably correct to identify scary briefings about Delta as part of the cause of the Republican shift. After all it is hard to imagine too many complacent briefings about Delta being possible, given what a really big deal the increased transmissibility of that strain is.

The other aspect they seem to be missing out on is that this shift in Republican messaging comes at the same time that the president decided to actually try to do more about anti-vaccine propaganda.


----------



## elbows (Jul 23, 2021)

Oh dear Biden has rather underlined my point about dodgy binary thinking about vaccines being enhanced by overly simplistic messages from authorities. I wouldnt want to be the one to have to correct this misleading impression later when the shit hits the fan.


----------



## sideboob (Jul 23, 2021)

Seneca College students, staff required to have COVID-19 vaccines in order to be on campus  | Globalnews.ca
					

According to a new Seneca College policy, those who haven't received COVID-19 vaccines will be required to study or work remotely.




					globalnews.ca
				




When the gov`t is too scared to do the proper thing it`s nice to see the private sector taking the proper steps.

“We’re not forcing anybody, actually. We actually not making vaccines mandatory. We’re saying if you want to come on campus, you must be vaccinated.”


----------



## IC3D (Jul 23, 2021)

It's conserning there is no political opposition to populism at all while as a society we are fragmenting. Its a Breeding ground for fascism.


----------



## redsquirrel (Jul 23, 2021)

Eh? What are you identifying as populism?


----------



## zahir (Jul 23, 2021)

Avoiding plague island.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jul 23, 2021)

zahir said:


> Avoiding plague island.



50000 in the coming months?
positive thinking this


----------



## MrCurry (Jul 23, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> 50000 in the coming months?
> positive thinking this


Per day more like.


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (Jul 23, 2021)

New Zealand has shut the travel bubble with Australia.


----------



## spring-peeper (Jul 23, 2021)

BillRiver said:


> How will that be enforced?




The Quebec police, le Sûreté,  are very efficient.

I grew up in Quebec - you are taught not to piss them off.
They said le Sûreté are not nice to anglophones, but I never had a problem with them.


----------



## Chz (Jul 24, 2021)

spring-peeper said:


> you are taught not to piss them off.


Well they say that about the Gendarmerie and the Police Nationale in France, as well. Mostly because they're power-mad racists with an axe to grind.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Jul 24, 2021)

Covid could be spread through flatulence, say ministers


----------



## weltweit (Jul 24, 2021)

Indeliblelink said:


> Covid could be spread through flatulence, say ministers


And they would know!


----------



## gentlegreen (Jul 24, 2021)

There was a theory that one chap with diarrhoea in a block of flats infected loads of people with SARS1 ..


----------



## elbows (Jul 24, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> There was a theory that one chap with diarrhoea in a block of flats infected loads of people with SARS1 ..



I used to go on about that and related matters a lot more. Everything from anal swabs to the detection of the virus in sewage/wastewater that is now very much a part of the UKs surveillance system, to keeping the toilet lid down when flushing. I dont think I looked into farts before, but fating when naked carries greater risk than farting with clothes on, since clothes end up performing a similar function to masks, they do some filtering.

As for the original SARS incident you mention:



> Recent investigations into the March 2003 outbreak of SARS in Hong Kong have concluded that environmental factors played an important role in the transmission of the disease. These studies have focused on a particular outbreak event, the rapid spread of SARS throughout Amoy Gardens, a large, private apartment complex. They have demonstrated that, unlike a typical viral outbreak that is spread through person-to-person contact, the SARS virus in this case was spread primarily through the air. High concentrations of viral aerosols in building plumbing were drawn into apartment bathrooms through floor drains. The initial exposures occurred in these bathrooms. The virus-laden air was then transported by prevailing winds to adjacent buildings at Amoy Gardens, where additional exposures occurred. This article reviews the results of the investigations and provides recommendations for maintenance and other measures that building owners can take to help prevent environmental transmission of SARS and other flulike viruses in their buildings.











						Environmental transmission of SARS at Amoy Gardens - PubMed
					

Recent investigations into the March 2003 outbreak of SARS in Hong Kong have concluded that environmental factors played an important role in the transmission of the disease. These studies have focused on a particular outbreak event, the rapid spread of SARS throughout Amoy Gardens, a large...




					pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov


----------



## zahir (Jul 28, 2021)

A thread on endemicity


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jul 28, 2021)

zahir said:


> A thread on endemicity



the final tweet in there does not fill me with confidence for the future. 

I  liked this quote in that thread:


I would emphasize "early on" to the idiots in charge of the UK


----------



## Nine Bob Note (Jul 28, 2021)

Edit: not for the serious thread


----------



## 2hats (Jul 29, 2021)

Animal reservoirs.






__





						USDA APHIS | Surveillance Data Shows White-Tailed Deer Exposed to SARS-CoV-2
					






					www.aphis.usda.gov


----------



## BillRiver (Jul 29, 2021)

spring-peeper said:


> The Quebec police, le Sûreté,  are very efficient.
> 
> I grew up in Quebec - you are taught not to piss them off.
> They said le Sûreté are not nice to anglophones, but I never had a problem with them.



They may well be but imagine the scene - a bustling high street full of people, most have been vaccinated and are carrying their cards, a few have not and are not.

How do you find out who has not and is not without causing considerable inconvenience/stress to those who have and are?


----------



## spring-peeper (Jul 29, 2021)

BillRiver said:


> They may well be but imagine the scene - a bustling high street full of people, most have been vaccinated and are carrying their cards, a few have not and are not.
> 
> How do you find out who has not and is not without causing considerable inconvenience/stress to those who have and are?




How odd!!!

The premier said it would only be used if the numbers go up and they have to start shutting the province (or region) down again to control the numbers.

Vaccinated people can still go to work, etc., the rest have to go back working from home, etc.

I really doubt the numbers will make another lockdown a reality.

Quebec will also vaccinate any tourist that comes in and wants a jab.


Quebec has a higher vaccination rate than Ontario (where I live)

Here are Ontario's numbers: 
81.104% of adults (18+) in Ontario have received at least one dose​69.217% of adults (18+) in Ontario are fully vaccinated​
Too lazy to find Quebec numbers....


----------



## BillRiver (Jul 29, 2021)

spring-peeper said:


> How odd!!!
> 
> The premier said it would only be used if the numbers go up and they have to start shutting the province (or region) down again to control the numbers.
> 
> ...



Here's hoping numbers do not go up too much, and they don't ever have to enforce it.


----------



## CNT36 (Jul 29, 2021)

> Let me say this as an African: our world as we know it is on the brink; we face massive death tolls, and the collapse of economies and nations. What is the real meaning of humanity? For all lives to be given the same value, irrespective of geography or economy.
> 
> In the aftermath of the Second World War, the United States developed the Marshall Plan to enable devastated countries in Western Europe to recover. It was an inspiring moment in human history. The current human calamity must be stopped with a new Marshall Plan, whereby prosperous nations freely share vaccines, manufacturing capacity and resources — if not for the sake of their consciences, then for health security.
> 
> Regions where COVID-19 cases are allowed to soar are the places where the next variant will emerge. That could undo all the advances made with the vaccine roll-out in developed countries.


Sounding grim in Africa.


----------



## 2hats (Jul 30, 2021)

Animal reservoirs again. More recent SARS-CoV-2 variants (eg beta and gamma) have improved affinity to not only human, but also mouse and rat ACE2 expressing cells. Described here via wastewater sampling a strong indication of, not unsurprisingly, rodents being extensively infected.








						Tracking Cryptic SARS-CoV-2 Lineages Detected in NYC Wastewater
					

Tracking SARS-CoV-2 genetic diversity is strongly indicated because diversifying selection may lead to the emergence of novel variants resistant to naturally acquired or vaccine-induced immunity. To monitor New York City (NYC) for the presence of novel variants, we amplified regions of the...




					www.medrxiv.org


----------



## Supine (Jul 30, 2021)

Good exponential growth  



Malaysia managed to knock out 12 million jabs in July.


----------



## The39thStep (Jul 30, 2021)

Portugal now in the first phase of removing all restrictions. Cafes can open till 2 in the morning , bars can now open, increased capacity in restaurants but still retain the digital vaccine eating indoors at weekends, festivals at limited capacity and entry with digital certificates. Mask still obligatory untill first week September, review of supermarkets in September. Home working recommended but no longer obligatory.


----------



## two sheds (Jul 30, 2021)

A Cape Cod COVID Outbreak Shows The Delta Variant May Be Even More Infectious Than We Thought, The CDC Says​








						A Cape Cod COVID Outbreak Shows The Delta Variant May Be Even More Infectious Than We Thought, The CDC Says
					

The Delta variant outbreak among vaccinated beachgoers in Cape Cod was “a pivotal discovery” leading to new mask recommendations, said CDC chief Rochelle Walensky.




					www.buzzfeednews.com
				






> The outbreak overwhelmingly led to mild cases of COVID-19 among vaccinated people, demonstrating that the vaccines were still doing their main jobs of preventing severe disease and death, even against the highly contagious Delta variant.
> 
> Until now, the vaccines have also largely prevented fully vaccinated people from transmitting the virus to others. But the new findings released by the CDC found that vaccinated individuals who get infected with the Delta strain of the coronavirus — so-called breakthrough infections — can carry high levels of the virus that might make them as contagious as people who have not been vaccinated.
> 
> It’s unclear exactly how often breakthrough infections occur, but they are thought to be relatively rare. Still, the new findings suggest that even vaccinated people in areas with high levels of infections should take more precautions.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jul 31, 2021)

Hmmm Queensland's not doing too well, they actually cancelled sport!











						NRL shut down due to Queensland Covid lockdown
					

The new outbreak has thrown the future of the competition up in the air.




					www.nzherald.co.nz


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jul 31, 2021)

So there's delta in South East Queensland and they don't know where some of it is  Queensland are really good at tracking so they'll find it. Queensland’s Chief Health Officer Dr Jeannette Young – the woman behind the role


So hard, snapish lock down. People given 6 hours notice. The message is "don't move, stay where you are until we find it'

There are long queues at testing stations, and the lists of exposure sites are precise.



I live just the perfect distance north for some people in restricted areas ( mostly the sunny coast or north Brisbane, approx a 3 hour drive)  to decide to get away for a nice break over that weekend. As has happened previously when lock down happens there.  I  imagined the highway heading north being packed, but maybe all the cops are sitting out there too, or hopefully people will do the right thing.🚓 

Our annual whale festival was supposed to kick off tonight, with the  blessing of the fleet and fireworks. So lots of people would have planned to be here or on their way already.



But our council cancelled tonight, and apparently it was broadcast at 1am this morning ( sat) to go home if you're travelling in a restricted area. . But who knows, time will tell. People will still come without the festival, our high tourist season has only just begun.



If you have been in a restricted area in the last 14 days you're to wear a mask. I was at the sunny coast last week so have been wearing a mask..I was visiting one of my son's and grandmothering.  

so anyway. Thats covid in south east qld atm  other parts of Australia it's totally different scenarios.  COVID live updates: Queensland puts 11 LGAs into lockdown from 4:00pm as authorities look to get on top of Delta outbreak - ABC News


----------



## miss direct (Jul 31, 2021)

A man in Turkey has been in court for attempted murder..he bought the saliva of someone infected with covid and then spiked his bosses tea with it.


----------



## miss direct (Jul 31, 2021)

Man trying to lace his boss’ tea with COVID-19 arrested in Turkey
					

R.Ç. allegedly came up with an ingenious plan to kill his boss I.Ü.: placing saliva he collected from a COVID-19 patient into his tea. The suspect, who...




					www.dailysabah.com


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jul 31, 2021)

And here they come, this is the north bound traffic of covid restriction escapees. I've had both my Pfizer shots but still, I think I'll be staying home.


----------



## two sheds (Jul 31, 2021)

I do find it strange that people crowded into cities when going on holiday crowd onto motorways to sit in queues to get to beaches that are crowded when they get there and crowd into motorway queues on the way back.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Aug 1, 2021)

two sheds said:


> I do find it strange that people crowded into cities when going on holiday crowd onto motorways to sit in queues to get to beaches that are crowded when they get there and crowd into motorway queues on the way back.



It's an odd one yes. But the point of that photo was to show that the snap lock down in the city wasn't snap enough. It gave people 6 hours to get out of dodge for the weekend, rather than be locked down. They're not going on holiday, they're avoiding the rules. Possibly carrying their delta 9 into more areas that aren't locked down. I don't know what the alternative is but this keeps happening and the town I live in is sick of it. At least this is a town where for the most part we live outside, so that helps with transmission.

This is my living room lol


----------



## 20Bees (Aug 1, 2021)

My son is a teacher in northern China and was due back at work today after a month on paternity leave. The school has just closed on government orders as one positive case of the delta variant has been identified in the city, there’s no general lockdown yet but it may well happen. The person apparently flew in from another city and had socialised at various bars and restaurants before being tested. Contact tracing is underway, people are advised not to leave the city.


----------



## 20Bees (Aug 1, 2021)

Sorry double post


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Aug 2, 2021)

20Bees said:


> My son is a teacher in northern China and was due back at work today after a month on paternity leave. The school has just closed on government orders as one positive case of the delta variant has been identified in the city, there’s no general lockdown yet but it may well happen. The person apparently flew in from another city and had socialised at various bars and restaurants before being tested. Contact tracing is underway, people are advised not to leave the city.


on the beeb web front page now china concern over delta spread


----------



## MrCurry (Aug 2, 2021)

I wonder if countries which have been most successful in avoiding Covid spread to date (China, Aus, NZ, etc) are more vulnerable to Delta as the level of immunity within their communities is lower than in western countries where a higher proportion of people have had covid and retained good immunity to it?  Or do the vaccines offer just as much protection to people as having successfully recovered from covid provides?


----------



## IC3D (Aug 2, 2021)

Give it 12 months MrCurry for an answer.
I wonder if we will see New Zealand permanently seal itself from the world in the near future.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Aug 2, 2021)

Vietnam which had done really well has several lockdowns now and the situation is grim, similar scenes to India last year where people try to return home as they cannot earn money in Saigon and their home towns/villages don't want to have them for fear of the virus.


----------



## elbows (Aug 2, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> I wonder if countries which have been most successful in avoiding Covid spread to date (China, Aus, NZ, etc) are more vulnerable to Delta as the level of immunity within their communities is lower than in western countries where a higher proportion of people have had covid and retained good immunity to it?  Or do the vaccines offer just as much protection to people as having successfully recovered from covid provides?


That sort of thing, plus vaccine uptake rates and types of vaccine used, certainly make a difference to how big a wave they could have if things went unchecked.

But mostly I would focus on the fact that everywhere seems vulnerable to Delta. And places that always took an approach which minimises the number of infections are finding it harder to get their usual grip on this version of the virus, due to its increased transmissive abilities. So we start to see articles in the press questioning whether the approach of Australia for example is going to be viable this time. Not that I think they have much choice at this point, they have to try to keep the number of infections down.

And of course we can also look at how much trouble Delta has caused in places like the UK with its partial let it rip approach. Plenty of vaccinated and previous infected people here, yet under the conditions the government allowed the number of Delta cases still grew stupidly large.

What counts as success and failure varies considerably by nation too. The UK has had days in this pandemic where more people died in a single day than have died in total so far in Australia. The UK has had days where more positive cases were reported in a single day than Australia has recorded in the entire pandemic so far. And it is possible to find all manner of towns and cities in England where the number of positives on a single day in this Delta wave were greater than the current national daily figures for Australia.

And that stuff has an impact on perceptions. People in the UK have seen peak hospitalisationa nd death figures that are large, which impacts on what people think of the recent hospital and death figures, which may be perceived as modest compare to previous waves here, but would be considered a nightmare in countries that avoided such wave sizes all the way up to this current moment.


----------



## Steel Icarus (Aug 3, 2021)

Uh-oh. 








						Wuhan: Chinese city to test entire population after virus resurfaces
					

The city of 11 million people is known to be the site where the coronavirus first emerged in 2019.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## elbows (Aug 3, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> I wonder if countries which have been most successful in avoiding Covid spread to date (China, Aus, NZ, etc) are more vulnerable to Delta as the level of immunity within their communities is lower than in western countries where a higher proportion of people have had covid and retained good immunity to it?  Or do the vaccines offer just as much protection to people as having successfully recovered from covid provides?



Following on from my previous reply, note how fucked Florida is despite being in a vaccine era and not having a shortage of infections in the past.









						Florida again breaks record for COVID-19 hospitalizations
					

The number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Florida rose to an all-time high of 11,515 patients in one day, according to data the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services released Tuesday.




					www.pbs.org
				






> The number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 in Florida rose to an all-time high of 11,515 patients





> The new number breaks a previous record for current hospitalizations set more than a year ago before vaccines were available. Last year, Florida hit its previous peak on July 23, with 10,170 hospitalizations.



By the way watch out for some of the wording in that article, with phrases like "in one day" being an odd choice given this is number of people in hospital, not daily admissions.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Aug 3, 2021)

So, Texas and Florida accounted for a 1/3rd of all US cases recently and both have governor opposed to mask mandates
great stuff :/


----------



## Yossarian (Aug 4, 2021)

COVID seems to be exploding in Vietnam, which had been a success story for so long - record highs of 16,954 cases and 765 deaths reported Tuesday, that's a tenth of the cases and more than a third of the deaths reported during the entire pandemic.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Aug 4, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> COVID seems to be exploding in Vietnam, which had been a success story for so long - record highs of 16,954 cases and 765 deaths reported Tuesday, that's a tenth of the cases and more than a third of the deaths reported during the entire pandemic.


Heard it was bad but hadn't actually checked the numbers 😥


----------



## gentlegreen (Aug 5, 2021)

An epic Q&A last night...

Somewhat depressingly towards the end, Victor calls this a 3 year pandemic and that there will be constant reinfection from animals even once most humans have sufficient immunity ...


----------



## LDC (Aug 5, 2021)

IIRC the jump back into animals that act as a reservoir for the disease to then jump back into humans is covered in the SAGE meeting about long term pandemic possibilities. Don't have the link to hand, but was posted somewhere on here 1-2 weeks ago, sure elbows or someone can recall it.


----------



## sparkybird (Aug 5, 2021)

I see the UK has finally put Mexico on the red list. It's one of only a few countries that have no testing or quarantine requirements what so ever to enter. Poor Mexico..


----------



## Petcha (Aug 5, 2021)

IC3D said:


> Give it 12 months MrCurry for an answer.
> I wonder if we will see New Zealand permanently seal itself from the world in the near future.



I guess that depends on how many billions you have









						Google co-founder Larry Page granted entry to New Zealand despite border closure, report says
					

Billionaire reportedly made trip after his child fell ill in Fiji and needed hospital treatment in New Zealand




					www.theguardian.com
				




Apparently he's not the only billionaire holed up down there


----------



## purves grundy (Aug 5, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> COVID seems to be exploding in Vietnam, which had been a success story for so long - record highs of 16,954 cases and 765 deaths reported Tuesday, that's a tenth of the cases and more than a third of the deaths reported during the entire pandemic.


All over SEA really, with Myanmar unsurprisingly looking likely to be the most fucked in the longer term. My colleague's mum and dad both died within days of each other last week, another lost her husband (aged 53)... everyone I know is affected in some way. Coup and COVID / COUPVID is a deadly combination.


----------



## elbows (Aug 5, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> IIRC the jump back into animals that act as a reservoir for the disease to then jump back into humans is covered in the SAGE meeting about long term pandemic possibilities. Don't have the link to hand, but was posted somewhere on here 1-2 weeks ago, sure elbows or someone can recall it.





			https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007566/S1335_Long_term_evolution_of_SARS-CoV-2.pdf
		


Animals do come up quite a lot in that document, I am quoting most but not all of those parts below.



> A longer-term version of shift whereby SARS-CoV-2 undergoes a reverse zoonotic event into an animal reservoir(s). This virus is then on a separate evolutionary trajectory because the virus animals is subject to different selection processes than in humans. The SARS-CoV-2 decedents then re-emerge into humans at a later time when vaccines that have been updated to keep pace with drift in humans sufficiently mismatched so as not able to provide immunologic cross protection.
> 
> Likelihood: Realistic possibility. Impact: Medium.
> 
> What could we do? Maintain a capacity to make vaccines with updated/different spike protein variants and begin to develop broader CoV immunity in the human population to diverse coronaviruses. For example, begin to develop a universal coronavirus vaccine with strong cross protection to other CoVs potentially using other viral proteins rather than just the spike glycoprotein.





> New human coronaviruses can originate from domesticated animals. HCoV-OC43 is thought to have originated from cattle in the 19th century, possibly after a recombination event that allowed it to acquire a new gene from an influenza virus. This strongly indicates the plasticity of the genome and the potential for domesticated animals to serve as reservoirs for new variants of SARS-CoV-2 that can remerge into humans.





> SARS-CoV-2 can infect a wide range of animals both in nature/farms (such as minks) laboratory animals (several species of non-human primates, mice, rats, ferrets and hamsters) and companion animals (cats and dogs). SARS-CoV-2 is thought to have originated from bats. Thus SARS-CoV-2 has a broad host range and is capable of continuous interchange between humans and an animal reservoir (e.g. mink farms) which could lead to the generation and selection of new variants.
> 
> Infections in mink farms have been observed throughout the world. The widespread presence of the virus in an animal population will render eradication even more unlikely. There is likely to be a different level of risk of exposure and potential for new variants between farmed animals (high density) and companion animals. In either case, reverse zoonosis may occur (already seen in Denmark from mink). Zoonotic reservoirs could lead to a large, expanded population of the virus with the potential for future dramatic variant change in the virus through recombination with another coronavirus already prevalent in that animal species, akin to antigenic shift in influenza virus in terms of conferring new virus properties.


----------



## nagapie (Aug 5, 2021)

sparkybird said:


> I see the UK has finally put Mexico on the red list. It's one of only a few countries that have no testing or quarantine requirements what so ever to enter. Poor Mexico..


Shit, we have two sets of friends there with their families. One because one of the parents had a few months work there and the other because they are Mexican and hadn't been home for a visit in 4 years, including one of their children seeing his father.


----------



## elbows (Aug 6, 2021)

Delta poses new challenges for those countries that went for more of a zero covid response, but there is something a bit surreal and twisted in the reporting of such matters by countries like ours. Perhaps its just me, with my memories of the time in March 2020 when the BBC told us that what we should do is carry on with our lives.

I find such articles especially awkward when they come to talk about how many cases and deaths these countries have had, or what constitutes a worrying level of infection in those places these days, the contrast with the results of our approach is not subtle.

Amusing headline in this case too, since we are normally told that zero covid is an impossible fantasy, rather than a prized strategy.









						China: How Delta threatens a prized zero Covid strategy
					

China's battling its widest outbreak since Wuhan - how long can it keep Covid out?



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Aug 6, 2021)

And to be clear, its completely fair enough to ask questions about how those sorts of approaches will evolve in future to cope, and what viable exit strategies exist. But such articles do tend to be rather revealing about a range of attitudes, choice of emphasis and propaganda.


----------



## Flavour (Aug 6, 2021)

Green Pass in force from today in Italy. need to show proof of having been vaccinated, or else recovered from Covid within the last 6 months, or else have a negative test result from last 48 hours in order to access swimming pools, gyms, cinemas, museums, and restaurants (indoor seating only)


----------



## planetgeli (Aug 6, 2021)

sparkybird said:


> I see the UK has finally put Mexico on the red list. It's one of only a few countries that have no testing or quarantine requirements what so ever to enter. Poor Mexico..



Mexico has been outrageous and is paying for it. Though apparently tourists are immune.


> “It’s important to highlight that infections are occurring among the young locals,” he said. “We have enough hospital beds for them, if they’re needed. *But it’s not happening among tourists.*”



This is from an article that contains a tourist's tale of being infected on holiday in Mexico.



			Bloomberg - Are you a robot?


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Aug 6, 2021)

Hanoi lockdown extended for two weeks.
Police checkpoints in the street in some areas, my friend there is not used to the silence of it all.


----------



## sparkybird (Aug 6, 2021)

nagapie said:


> Shit, we have two sets of friends there with their families. One because one of the parents had a few months work there and the other because they are Mexican and hadn't been home for a visit in 4 years, including one of their children seeing his father.


I hope they can get back before Monday or go somewhere on the amber list to quarantine before returning to UK


----------



## sparkybird (Aug 6, 2021)

planetgeli said:


> Mexico has been outrageous and is paying for it. Though apparently tourists are immune.
> 
> 
> This is from an article that contains a tourist's tale of being infected on holiday in Mexico.
> ...


I was surprised it took as long as it did to go on the list. No restrictions to enter and pretty much no restrictions when you are there now. They are vaccinating (30-39 in the state I usually visit) but this is first jab only, it's really badly organised (people queuing for through the night for hours and hours)  and Mexico has a really young population. They seem to be focussing on teachers now so that schools and universities can go back fully (having been closed for almost 18 months - imagine that!)


----------



## elbows (Aug 6, 2021)

I have not seen the channe 4 report mentioned here:


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Aug 6, 2021)

grim, it's available here

in vietnam they have set up rice ATM for poor people so they don't starve


----------



## spring-peeper (Aug 7, 2021)

Canada was off to a slow start.  
We do not have any labs to make the vaccines, and countries were saying the vaccines should be used in their country first.
I understand that, but look at us now!!!


----------



## Combustible (Aug 7, 2021)

elbows said:


> Delta poses new challenges for those countries that went for more of a zero covid response, but there is something a bit surreal and twisted in the reporting of such matters by countries like ours. Perhaps its just me, with my memories of the time in March 2020 when the BBC told us that what we should do is carry on with our lives.
> 
> I find such articles especially awkward when they come to talk about how many cases and deaths these countries have had, or what constitutes a worrying level of infection in those places these days, the contrast with the results of our approach is not subtle.
> 
> ...



Not to mention the vague unsupported comments about the vaccines, I can't imagine there being similar comments about worries about vaccines in the UK, since many recent UK cases have also been amongst the fully vaccinated. I don't see why the article talks about "an apparent lack of confidence in their vaccines", since even if the Chinese vaccines are equally effective against the Delta variant (~60% against symptomatic infection), that would be insufficient to prevent mass infection. While I agree it's reasonable to ask what will be done in the long term, I am reasonably optimistic that the latest outbreaks can be controlled, Nanjing now seems to be down to low numbers (just one new case today), and most the cases seem to be in neighbouring Yangzhou where presumably the same approach can be taken. I guess would could change things would be if a mRNA-based booster jab becomes available, which is apparently under development.


----------



## elbows (Aug 7, 2021)

Combustible said:


> Not to mention the vague unsupported comments about the vaccines, I can't imagine there being similar comments about worries about vaccines in the UK, since many recent UK cases have also been amongst the fully vaccinated. I don't see why the article talks about "an apparent lack of confidence in their vaccines", since even if the Chinese vaccines are equally effective against the Delta variant (~60% against symptomatic infection), that would be insufficient to prevent mass infection.


In that regard I am the sort of person who will point and laugh while reading the following line from the article.



> Health authorities have given public reassurances, even as they consider giving booster shots.



Wow they are so different to us, such a huge contrast with the UK situation where health authorities have given public reassurances, even as they consider giving booster shots.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 7, 2021)

purves grundy said:


> All over SEA really, with Myanmar unsurprisingly looking likely to be the most fucked in the longer term. My colleague's mum and dad both died within days of each other last week, another lost her husband (aged 53)... everyone I know is affected in some way. Coup and COVID / COUPVID is a deadly combination.



Just seen a Sky News report on Myanmar, it seems worst than India at their recent peak.  



> Bo Sein and his team of body collectors have never been more in demand. Their ambulance used to carry the living. Then a third wave of COVID-19 hit Myanmar, and now everyone they pick up is dead.
> 
> Hour after hour, they collect the bodies of the infected: people who survived a military takeover, only to be defeated by coronavirus. There is no break in the calls for help from terrified and heartbroken relatives. Bo Sein and his team of Yangon-based volunteers cannot keep up with the demand.
> 
> "The corpses are lined up day and night," he says. "Some people have to keep the corpses in their houses for days until they can find a hearse to carry them so they become rotten."





> The line of ambulances at the crematorium is a sign of the crisis. For hours they wait to deliver the dead. One crematorium in Yangon told us they are now carrying out around 300 cremations a day compared to the usual 50.
> 
> In Myanmar's COVID-19 outbreak, July was particularly grim. As cases surged, thousands were confirmed dead. Figures at the end of the month showed more than 60% of the country's total COVID fatalities had died in July.











						COVID-19: People in Myanmar forced to 'keep corpses in their homes for days' amid worsening third wave
					

The inability of many doctors to work safely, coupled with a shortage of oxygen, medicine and a properly functioning hospital system, is making the country's third wave even more deadly.




					news.sky.com


----------



## flypanam (Aug 12, 2021)

Ireland is starting to vaccinate 12 to 15 year olds next week, which is great news.









						Covid-19 vaccine portal opens for 12 to 15 year olds | NorthernSound
					

A leading professor of virology says it's an extremely positive move.




					www.northernsound.ie


----------



## zahir (Aug 12, 2021)

Thread on covid in Iran


----------



## Teaboy (Aug 12, 2021)

flypanam said:


> Ireland is starting to vaccinate 12 to 15 year olds next week, which is great news.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Dunno.  On a thread where we're witnessing people dying in their thousands for want of access to vaccines news that wealthy countries are using them on kids is at best questionable. Obviously good if you live in Ireland.  Same goes for the UK of course.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Aug 12, 2021)

Teaboy said:


> Dunno.  On a thread where we're witnessing people dying in their thousands for want of access to vaccines news that wealthy countries are using them on kids is at best questionable. Obviously good if you live in Ireland.  Same goes for the UK of course.


If you want a Covid mourning thread, go and start one. That's not what this thread is.


----------



## elbows (Aug 12, 2021)

Saul Goodman said:


> If you want a Covid mourning thread, go and start one. That's not what this thread is.


This thread is for any worldwide pandemic news or issue that people want to talk about. There are a few vaccine inequality threads too but its perfectly legitimate to talk about such things here.


----------



## Saul Goodman (Aug 12, 2021)

elbows said:


> This thread is for any worldwide pandemic news or issue that people want to talk about. There are a few vaccine inequality threads too but its perfectly legitimate to talk about such things here.


Exactly. I think it's great that kids are getting vaccinated now. They should have been done sooner, IMO.


----------



## elbows (Aug 12, 2021)

Its an absolute disgrace that young people are vaccinated at a time when huge numbers of vulnerable people around the world, including health care workers, have not had the benefits of vaccination. I have a simialr opinion about the use of booster shots at this time.

But it is a complicated subject and unknowns about long covid and waning immunity mean that my stance is fraught with more complications than I feel up to properly discussing right now.

The rush to remove restrictions and return to something of the old normal further complicates the equation in countries with plentiful vaccine supply. It ensures the inequality will be magnified and backed by various justifications. Its still a disgrace.


----------



## 2hats (Aug 12, 2021)

CDC director confirms that the FDA is working with Pfizer and Moderna to provide a third booster dose to those considered to be moderately to severely immunocompromised (estimated to be just under 3% of the US adult population). Separately, Fauci has said that at this time no booster is expected for the [non-immunocompromised] elderly.








						U.S. works with vaccine makers on booster dose for some -CDC director
					

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is working with vaccine makers Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) and Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) to allow certain vulnerable people to receive a third booster shot of their COVID-19 vaccines to improve their immune response, the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control...




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Indeliblelink (Aug 13, 2021)

This is worrying if true in any way. I've got two friends who've had kids in the last year, this can't be easy for them to read.








						Children born during pandemic have lower IQs, US study finds
					

Researchers blame lack of stimulation as parents balanced childcare with working from home




					www.theguardian.com
				






> In the decade preceding the pandemic, the mean IQ score on standardised tests for children aged between three months and three years of age hovered around 100, but for children born during the pandemic that number tumbled to 78, according to the analysis, which is yet to be peer-reviewed.
> “It’s not subtle by any stretch,” said Deoni. “You don’t typically see things like that, outside of major cognitive disorders.”


----------



## Chilli.s (Aug 13, 2021)

Indeliblelink said:


> This is worrying if true in any way. I've got two friends who've had kids in the last year, this can't be easy for them to read.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


inevitable really. parents take the child minding aspect of nursery/school for granted most of the time. It's only obvious how much more than learning takes place there when not available.


----------



## klang (Aug 13, 2021)

Indeliblelink said:


> This is worrying if true in any way. I've got two friends who've had kids in the last year, this can't be easy for them to read.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I read a study somewhere that looked at the positive effects of having two parents around pretty much all the time for the first couple of years. Not many children in previous generations have experienced this level of security and belonging.
(I'm in a similar situation btw)


----------



## Monkeygrinder's Organ (Aug 13, 2021)

Indeliblelink said:


> This is worrying if true in any way. I've got two friends who've had kids in the last year, this can't be easy for them to read.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



That quote is a bit weird because if you're comparing tests for kids between 3 months and 3 years, you're not comparing like-for-like with kids born during the pandemic are you? Unless you think the tests are neutral regarding age, which seems a bit dubious to say the least.


----------



## kabbes (Aug 14, 2021)

Indeliblelink said:


> This is worrying if true in any way. I've got two friends who've had kids in the last year, this can't be easy for them to read.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Which demonstrates perfectly that IQ is in no way a measure of context-free “intelligence” and is indeed exactly the measure of cultural affiliation with the test-setter that its detractors always claim it to be.


----------



## spring-peeper (Aug 15, 2021)

As more and more regions are requiring proof of vaccination, is it any surprise we are not seeing more of this:









						US border agents in Tennessee have seized thousands of counterfeit Covid-19 vaccination cards
					

US Customs and Border Protection officers in Memphis, Tennessee, have seized thousands of fake Covid-19 vaccination cards so far this year.




					www.cnn.com
				






> US Customs and Border Protection officers in Memphis, Tennessee, have seized thousands of fake Covid-19 vaccination cards so far this year.
> 
> "Every night" officers are seizing shipments from Shenzhen, China, headed to New Orleans, Louisiana, containing dozens of blank counterfeit vaccination cards, CBP said in a press release Friday.
> 
> ...


----------



## Badgers (Aug 15, 2021)

spring-peeper said:


> As more and more regions are requiring proof of vaccination, is it any surprise we are not seeing more of this:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Was always gonna happen but fuck those cunts. Should be charged with attempting manslaughter


----------



## _Russ_ (Aug 15, 2021)

Quite telling also that the same people who avoid vaccination are quite willing to engage in criminality that could harm others


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Aug 15, 2021)

_Russ_ said:


> Quite telling also that the same people who avoid vaccination are quite willing to engage in criminality that could harm others


well, they do see themselves as "freedom fighters"


----------



## MrSki (Aug 15, 2021)

Can anyone with a scientific background confirm or deny this is as bad as it sounds?


----------



## elbows (Aug 15, 2021)

Well Lambda causes concern because it has demonstrated an ability to dominate in some South American countries. And it has immune/vaccine escape potential. What isnt clear is whether it will outcompete Delta in countries where Delta currently dominates.

Its often not easy to determine which variants will actually dominate across the globe. 8 Lambda cases have been identified in the UK so far. Plenty of variants have remained at these sorts of low levels without dominating the infection picture or the headlines. But thats no cause for complacency, since even if the variant doesnt evolve in more notable ways in future, changing circumstances could potentially give it an edge when competing with the current dominant strain. 

I pay attention to these variants but I dont fret too much about them unless they actually start to dominate the picture. There are good reasons to pay attention to Lambda, but I cant make predictions about it.


----------



## elbows (Aug 15, 2021)

Here is a fair example of recent coverage of Lambda, but it isnt necessarily all that illuminating given the current stage of knowledge and spread.





__





						Lambda COVID variant UK: All you should know about the new strain | BBC Science Focus Magazine
					

There have been no new cases of the Lambda variant in the UK over the last four weeks – but here's why the WHO is still keeping a close eye on its spread.



					www.sciencefocus.com


----------



## MrSki (Aug 15, 2021)

Thank you elbows for your considered response.


----------



## 2hats (Aug 15, 2021)

Lambda/C.37 has typically been crushed by delta/B.1.617.2 everywhere outside of Peru (where lambda has a large head start). Note in particular other South American countries except Chile, where perhaps lambda has its best 'chance'. Though B.1.621 may be one to keep an eye on there; it has started popping up in several places in recent weeks, having dominated Colombia for some time, but gradually, of late, delta and lambda have been pushing past it (might be worth watching to try to gauge relative advantage)*.
 
It looks like delta gained a foothold in the Philippines some months ago (note: paucity of and delays in sequencing, so likely hard to judge current direction of travel). But as ever, downstream outcomes can be greatly influenced by a small number of 'well placed, well timed' seeding events.

(Note: none of the above variants, indeed any variants, might necessarily have a significant biologically functional advantage over any other - apparent advantages might be largely happenstance and driven to varying degrees by some combination of one or more of human behaviours, prior immunity and environmental circumstances in the relevant geographical areas).

* e2a: Until recently there were issues with identification of B.1.621 in sequencing databases, so might take at least a couple more weeks for the real picture around that variant to start to become clear.


----------



## Cloo (Aug 16, 2021)

The world situation feels so weird right now, I mean it always has been, but the response is now diverging so much.

UK apparently going 'Ladidadidah, vaccines will sort everything, let's just get on with it' in the middle of Delta. Parts of America going 'Oh shit, Delta, right shut things down', while other parts have been carrying on like nothing's happening. Starting to feel a little sorry for Aus and NZ for repeated hard (if short) lockdowns, although it must be said, they are dealing with infections in the hundreds and deaths in the double figures as a result, but you wonder how long they can keep it up?

I mean, one way or the other, the UK's response has been appalling and has cost both lives and the economy way too much.

I am wondering how India is doing now as the first place to experience Delta, and whether current situation tells us anything about future trajectory for other places where it's hit?


----------



## Badgers (Aug 16, 2021)

Cloo said:


> I am wondering how India is doing now as the first place to experience Delta, and whether current situation tells us anything about future trajectory for other places where it's hit?


The UK media is quiet on this. 

I work with a lass from India and another lass from Indonesia. They have very bleak news from their families


----------



## Cloo (Aug 16, 2021)

Looking at figures, it seems like infection is chauntering along along a lower level, but still not as low as after previous peak - looks like hovering around 36k infections per day mark


----------



## gentlegreen (Aug 16, 2021)

The Texas State Supreme Court upholds the governor’s mask-mandate ban, for now.
					

The court’s action is temporary, awaiting a final ruling. Some local officials said they would go ahead with mask mandates anyway.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Yossarian (Aug 18, 2021)

Ominous developments in New Zealand - the country was placed under a snap 3-day national lockdown after a single community case of COVID was detected - four more cases now detected, including a nurse and authorities say it's the Delta variant, connected to the New South Wales outbreak. 









						New location of interest as four new Delta Covid cases, Auckland Hospital nurse tests positive - all linked to Devonport tradesman
					

A fully vaccinated nurse at Auckland Hospital has tested positive.




					www.nzherald.co.nz


----------



## Chz (Aug 18, 2021)

I'm still of the opinion that it's the right way to handle things if you're an island.


----------



## Yossarian (Aug 19, 2021)

Yep, she has been extremely impressive compared to almost any other Western leader - not looking too good for NZ right now sadly, 21 Delta cases now confirmed, they've traced the outbreak to an infected arrival from Sydney who arrived Aug. 7, tested positive Aug. 9, and was hospitalized Aug. 16, - it's not clear when the first infection linked to that traveler was, but if Delta has been circulating undetected for weeks, that could be the end of New Zealand's zero COVID strategy.


----------



## Balbi (Aug 19, 2021)

Alright folks? Day 2 of lockdown here in Auckland. We're locked tight here for another 5 days, but everyone is expecting that to be extended. 

We've been here before, the genomic sequencing as Yoss said has traced it to a Sydney arrival - most likely transmission vector is when they were transported between the isolation hotel and the specialised quarantine facility. Fortunately, most staff at facilities were vaccinated as well.

There's a few chain pieces missing, but the focus is now on finding every single person in contact to fill those in.

We are going to have a *significant* number of cases emerge, as all of our current positives were active in the community. But with a L4 lockdown almost everyone is at home now, and almost everything is shut - that means the chain of infection has hopefully be cut off, or confined to homes as of two days ago - it will probably take 14 days for that to emerge as all those infected beforehand test positive or develop symptoms etc. So hopefully a dropoff in two weeks, back down to zero.

Wastewater testing around the country has shown Covid in the wastewater in areas of Auckland with cases, but so far zero covid has turned up anywhere else in the country.

Vaccinations are being opened up even more, so it's a race to get everyone vaxxed up while we try and limit the spread of the virus.

Of all the cases, I think Doc Bloomfield said 8 were not confirmed as linked to the cluster - but that they had strong links to it. So unlike Sydney, everyone who's tested positive is linked to existing cases. We don't have any mystery ones right now. We might though, but at least the potential transmissin vectors are way down now we're at Level 4.

Fucking impressed with our system again tbh. 1 case, locked down, traced by the third day after the positive back to the original source - the list of locations of interest being updated hourly as positive cases are interviewed and their scanning data from the app is used how it's meant to be. 

Hopefully we can stamp it out.


----------



## _Russ_ (Aug 19, 2021)

I think Australia's actions are to be applauded (in contrast to the UK), if you can keep it at bay till you have a good percentage jabbed up then even when it eventually becomes widespread which unfortunately is inevitable then  many lives will have been be saved


----------



## Balbi (Aug 19, 2021)

Did you just call us AUSTRALIAN? Those dog cunts in Sydney fucked their Covid response so badly even we've got it now. Victoria and ACT and Queensland seem to be onto it, but the Tories in Sydney kept businesses open when Delta hit and now they're 600+ cases a day.


----------



## Petcha (Aug 19, 2021)

Why did New Zealand open its borders to Australia? I remember reading that and thought it was bit weird considering how disciplined they'd been. But as you say, the decisiveness of the action there puts us to shame. I hope you stamp it out.


----------



## _Russ_ (Aug 19, 2021)

Balbi said:


> Did you just call us AUSTRALIAN? Those dog cunts in Sydney fucked their Covid response so badly even we've got it now. Victoria and ACT and Queensland seem to be onto it, but the Tories in Sydney kept businesses open when Delta hit and now they're 600+ cases a day.


Genuine apology for that, I could blame not waiting till my second coffee before posting but such depth of feck up is non excusable ..im a dull prick at times


----------



## Balbi (Aug 19, 2021)

All good bro, even Aussies are incredibly pissed off with Sydney. Most other states had it locked down but then Sydney fucked it.

Petcha the borders reopened before Sydney lost control of the virus, and there were some requirements for testing before flights. The current outbreak came from a Red flight after we'd closed the bubble, so the initial case was in the same isolation that anyone else entering the country has to


----------



## retribution (Aug 20, 2021)

Victorian waving my fist (and some) at Sydney.

In Australia the national and state governments keep referring to the ambition that once we have 80% double vaccinated - likely not until December - lockdowns will be off the table. 

One thing I'm curious of is how Australia's good pandemic record will affect us when we reach this 80% figure. Other countries have "extra" levels of immunity in the non-vaccinated due to the spread of the virus. I think I read in the UK about 95% of people have antibodies? Whereas here, when we reach 80%, there won't be much of this "extra" immunity due to our historically low case levels. I guess this all gets worked into the government's modelling but it concerns me.

Does NZ have a similar "X% vaxed" ambition, Balbi ?


----------



## Balbi (Aug 20, 2021)

Not that I'm aware of, we're scaling up the programme but the aim is still to stamp this fucker out. We're in Level 4 until Tuesday night with the cabinet meeting Monday. We've got thirty cases now, a few down in Wellington. It's gonna spike to hundreds, but all of these people were infected before lockdown so we've got to see how long it takes for them to develop etc.


----------



## teuchter (Aug 20, 2021)

Here is NZ's strategy





__





						COVID-19: Minimisation and protection strategy for Aotearoa New Zealand
					

Protecting Aotearoa and New Zealanders from COVID-19 continues to be a priority for the Ministry of Health. The virus continues to evolve, with new variants emerging around the world. With this comes the need to move from a strategy of elimination to reflect new and emerging evidence about the...




					www.health.govt.nz
				




It seems to avoid really saying what they are going to do in the longer term. It seems fairly obvious to me that either they have to abandon the zero covid policy once X% are vaccinated, or stay isolated for years to come.


----------



## Petcha (Aug 20, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Here is NZ's strategy
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yes. I was wondering about this. Are they really going to keep their borders shut until the whole outside world's got antibodies? Coz that's gonna a very long time. That said, I'm totally impressed about the speed in which they're managing to trace everyone. Will be interesting to watch.


----------



## teuchter (Aug 20, 2021)

Singapore has already decided to "live with it".









						Singapore prepares for long term life - and death - with COVID-19
					

With just a few dozen COVID-19 deaths and one of the world's highest vaccination rates, Singapore wants to reopen for business - and is laying the groundwork to live with the coronavirus as it does other common diseases such as influenza.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Balbi (Aug 21, 2021)

Tracked 10,000 close contacts in 3 locked down days and cracked 40k tests and 50k vaccinations yesterday.

The plan is to stamp it out, vax up the population and then reopened the border to low risk countries with minimal quarantine requirements for those travellers, and see how things go with a majority vaxxed population.


----------



## HAL9000 (Aug 21, 2021)

Florida is trying to reduce liquid oxygen use, I didn't know it was used as part of water treatment.


> The mayor of the Florida city of Orlando asked residents on Friday to stop watering their lawns and washing their cars immediately, saying water usage needed to be cut back because of the recent surge of COVID-19 hospitalizations.
> 
> The Orlando Utility Commission treats the city's water with liquid oxygen and supplies that ordinarily go toward water treatment have been diverted to hospitals for patients suffering from the virus, Mayor Buddy Dyer said.
> 
> ...












						Florida Mayor Says Save Water Because Of The COVID-19 Surge
					

Orlando treats the city's water with liquid oxygen and supplies that ordinarily go toward water treatment have been diverted to hospitals for patients suffering from the virus.




					www.npr.org


----------



## Yossarian (Aug 21, 2021)

Balbi said:


> Tracked 10,000 close contacts in 3 locked down days and cracked 40k tests and 50k vaccinations yesterday.
> 
> The plan is to stamp it out, vax up the population and then reopened the border to low risk countries with minimal quarantine requirements for those travellers, and see how things go with a majority vaxxed population.



New Zealand once again moves with so much speed and decisiveness that I wonder if Jacinda Ardern gets calls from other world leaders asking her to stop making them look bad. If the UK had controlled the spread of COVID successfully enough to keep the death rate as low as NZ's, the death toll would have been around 350 instead of more than 130,000.

One thing I don't get is why the vaccine rollout has been so slow there - is it supply issues, public complacency, government failures, or something else?


----------



## 2hats (Aug 21, 2021)

HAL9000 said:


> Florida is trying to reduce liquid oxygen use, I didn't know it was used as part of water treatment.


Ozonation.


----------



## elbows (Aug 22, 2021)

Unlikely to be the last time we see this sort of article. Includes the usual mix of truth but also the sort of desperate framing that we are used to seeing from countries like ours where we want their approach to fail because it has made our approach look like the deadly shit it is. In this case its the headline that suffers from that dubious shit.

Its certainly true that Delta poses a massive challenge to their approach, but unlike the UK I somehow doubt that whatever modified approach they take will involve surrender at this stage. Its winter there and that fact combined with their present levels of vaccination means those alternative approaches arent really viable for them yet anyway.









						Covid: New Zealand pandemic strategy in doubt amid Delta spread
					

The highly infectious Delta variant "does change the game", the Covid response minister says.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Aug 22, 2021)

Israel soars to the top of the 'limitations of these vaccines to control Delta infection levels' club.

Given our media were very happy to point to Israel when looking for vaccine good news, lets see if they pay the same amount of attention now that rather different signals are on display. I think the last article I saw about that was the Israeli leader hoping they can use booster shots rather than lockdowns/other restrictions to get through this, whilst receiving a booster himself.

My choice of nations in this graph is a bit random in places.


----------



## _Russ_ (Aug 22, 2021)

Wales cases now more than the peak reached last month and rising, positivity also higher at 14%
Im with you Elbows, the way the msm are directing the narrative is shitty in the extreme, we are in trouble


----------



## elbows (Aug 22, 2021)

My previous description of Israel was rather sloppy, given that boosters cannot turn around situations in the short-term, and that they've already reimposed some restrictions, extended their vaccine passports stuff down to people aged over 3, and have warned about the possibility of reimposing a lockdown if things go in the wrong direction for a few more weeks.

I suppose I will be somewhat surprised if the media are able to maintain the current mood music in a months time. But since I dont actually know what will happen next, I shouldnt make these presumptions. In any case we'e already seen in the past that the UK media can change their tune at the drop of a hat, and this tends to show up via things like grim reports of the situation in some hospitals. We are coming to the end of summer silly season where more senior arses will now be back on seats, and I'll be interested to see whether UK PLC sticks to its guns or is forced to move away from the current approach.


----------



## Petcha (Aug 23, 2021)

Balbi said:


> Tracked 10,000 close contacts in 3 locked down days and cracked 40k tests and 50k vaccinations yesterday.
> 
> The plan is to stamp it out, vax up the population and then reopened the border to low risk countries with minimal quarantine requirements for those travellers, and see how things go with a majority vaxxed population.



Why the lack of speed in getting 5m people vaccinated? They're a wealthy country, I'm sure they could have jumped the queue for vaccines like all the others?


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Aug 23, 2021)

Was reading a thread about Israel on farcebook and the amount of double jabbed people getting infected; apparently now that they have had a few weeks of looking at more data it seem to mostly be amongst those that were vaccinated very early on (the most at risk cohorts) and also mostly with Pfizer vaccination which has a steeper decline in antibodies after a few months, hence the booster plan to try and rectify this.
The person was also saying that having a mix of different jabs does look like it might improve protection so this is a possible route forward.


----------



## Aladdin (Aug 23, 2021)

85% of adults vaccinated in  Ireland now. 

NPHET still asking all adults to go to walk in vaccination centres. 

12 to 15 yr olds being vaccinated and should be done by end of September. 

It's going to be a mess for the under 12s though. Schools reopen end of this week.


----------



## Yossarian (Aug 25, 2021)

elbows said:


> Unlikely to be the last time we see this sort of article. Includes the usual mix of truth but also the sort of desperate framing that we are used to seeing from countries like ours where we want their approach to fail because it has made our approach look like the deadly shit it is. In this case its the headline that suffers from that dubious shit.
> 
> Its certainly true that Delta poses a massive challenge to their approach, but unlike the UK I somehow doubt that whatever modified approach they take will involve surrender at this stage. Its winter there and that fact combined with their present levels of vaccination means those alternative approaches arent really viable for them yet anyway.
> 
> ...



Seems to be a recurring theme in coverage of the NZ outbreak - "New Zealand stubbornly clings to doomed elimination strategy despite Delta outbreak."

You don't see so much of the flipside - "Countries stick to strategy of letting infections rage despite growing evidence of the debilitating effects of long-term COVID."


----------



## elbows (Aug 25, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> Seems to be a recurring theme in coverage of the NZ outbreak - "New Zealand stubbornly clings to doomed elimination strategy despite Delta outbreak."
> 
> You don't see so much of the flipside - "Countries stick to strategy of letting infections rage despite growing evidence of the debilitating effects of long-term COVID."



And it take a special kind of nerve and doublethink to be writing headlines about other nations strategies being doomed, at a time when this countrys strategy for summer 20201 and beyond has involved millions of infections and quite some concern about the sustainability of such things in the face of Delta. With the added comedy that its summer here and winter in New Zealand.


----------



## krtek a houby (Aug 26, 2021)

Contamination in a Moderna batch over here.

Japan suspends 1.6 million Moderna doses over contamination fears

_The health ministry said "foreign materials" were found in some doses of a batch of roughly 560,000 vials.
Takeda Pharmaceutical, which sells and distributes the vaccine in Japan, said Moderna had put three batches on hold "out of an abundance of caution".
It said an issue at a manufacturing contract site in Spain was the likely cause, but did not elaborate._


----------



## elbows (Aug 26, 2021)

> Speaking on Thursday, Ardern said she was “not fussed” about debating and comparing different countries’ Covid strategies, and added that expert advice says New Zealand should continue to pursue elimination.
> 
> “For me, and I’m sure many others, the measure of success in this pandemic is not just what happens in August of 2021. It’s what has happened since February 2020, when Covid arrived in New Zealand.
> 
> “Then, and now, we had three goals: we wanted to save people’s lives, and we have. We wanted to try and have people’s lives lived as normally as possible and even now, we’ve had some of the shortest periods of restrictions of any country. We wanted to save people’s jobs in the economy. With unemployment at 4% and the economy performing at pre-Covid levels, we’ve done that too.”











						Ardern rejects criticism of elimination strategy after New Zealand reports 68 new cases
					

Prime minister says she is achieving her goals of saving lives and jobs, and giving people as much normalcy as possible




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Aug 27, 2021)

This is quite a sobering video


----------



## cupid_stunt (Aug 27, 2021)

farmerbarleymow said:


> This is quite a sobering video




Wow, just 36% of adults jabbed in that area, and only 50% of the hospital workers, totally fucking bonkers.  

I am glad we have so few loons in the UK, compared to the US.


----------



## albionism (Aug 30, 2021)

Waving my fist angrily at Sydney from Wollongong. Beginning our 9th week in lockdown down here.
Mind you, we've had it comparatively lucky for a long time compared to some.


----------



## glitch hiker (Aug 30, 2021)

I've been watching content from the US for some time. It's utterly depressing. Florida seems to be hell bent on self destruction under that piece of shit De Santis. He is committing fucking murder IM not-ligitious O. Seriously, he's happy for his donors to be inoculated, but kids in schools? Let them die. It's just depressing. Anecdotes such as those in the clip are rife; one woman, in ICU talking with a reporter via walkie talkie, had Covid induced pneumonia. Was she going to get the vaccine now? Even as she said no, her expression betrayed her insecurity. All the reporter could do was just stand there, stunned. This isn't freedom, it's social murder.


----------



## 2hats (Aug 30, 2021)

WHO shift in position on third dose boosters. Arguably valid for those who fail to seroconvert after a standard two-dose regimen.








						Coronavirus booster shots can help vulnerable, WHO Europe head says
					

A COVID-19 booster shot is a way to keep the most vulnerable safe and not a luxury robbing people who have yet to have even a single jab, a senior World Health Organization official said on Monday.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Petcha (Aug 31, 2021)

Looks like NZ's hardcore lockdown strategy is working









						New Zealand cases drop to 49 in ‘reassuring indication’ lockdown is working
					

Director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said virus’ reproduction rate remained under one, meaning cases would continue to drop




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Badgers (Aug 31, 2021)

Petcha said:


> Looks like NZ's hardcore lockdown strategy is working
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Fancy that eh? 

Restrictions work


----------



## Petcha (Aug 31, 2021)

Having leadership you actually have faith in might help too


----------



## Petcha (Aug 31, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Fancy that eh?
> 
> Restrictions work



It does sound like it's quite full on. Getting arrested if you break lockdown rules or don't wear a mask.   Imagine how that would go down here!


----------



## _Russ_ (Aug 31, 2021)

Imagine having a population that understood 100 extra people dying and thousands getting ill every day isnt mission accomplished.


----------



## Badgers (Aug 31, 2021)

Petcha said:


> It does sound like it's quite full on. Getting arrested if you break lockdown rules or don't wear a mask.   Imagine how that would go down here!


Should have been the case from the start and we would not be in the this ongoing death spiral.


----------



## Badgers (Aug 31, 2021)

_Russ_ said:


> Imagine having a population that understood 100 extra people dying and thousands getting ill every day isnt mission accomplished.


Beggars belief


----------



## Petcha (Aug 31, 2021)

tbf to us of course, we're a much different beast to NZ. you don't 'pass through' NZ. you have to want to go there. we're a major international hub so i don't think their strategy would work here. /devilsadvocate


----------



## skyscraper101 (Aug 31, 2021)

Some interesting data about Moderna here, producing twice as many antibodies as Pfizer, apparently.









						Moderna Makes Twice as Many Antibodies as Pfizer, Study Says
					

Moderna Inc.’s Covid vaccine generated more than double the antibodies of a similar shot made by Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE in research that compared immune responses evoked by the two inoculations.




					www.bloomberg.com
				




As a Moderna receiver myself, I sure hope it was all worth it because I felt rough as heck both times. Although it did quickly pass.


----------



## elbows (Aug 31, 2021)

Petcha said:


> tbf to us of course, we're a much different beast to NZ. you don't 'pass through' NZ. you have to want to go there. we're a major international hub so i don't think their strategy would work here. /devilsadvocate



We could argue about the details of that for a long time, so for a start I would split it into at least two different things.

1) The actual realities of what approaches were plausible here in the UK.

2) Establishment assumptions, attitudes and impressions about this.

The former is where we could argue, with little supporting evidence since no sincere attempts were made to do that. Probably the closest we could get to a real world test would have been via how low a rate of infection was achieved by early summer 2020. Because given all the early errors at the start of the pandemic, and errors made later, that offers the best opportunity to consider just how close to a viable 'total suppression' strategy we could have managed if the will had been there at that time. Scottish authorities certainly recognised the merits of suppression enough that they included disingenuous lip-service to the principal back then. They pretended they were going for that, but they didnt actually do the thing necessary to hope to achieve it.

In terms of establishment attitudes I dont have much doubt that the whole 'global hub, trading nation' thing set the scene and limited establishment pandemic ambitions. Some days ago I dug out a SAGE behavioural group document that gives further glimpses into that establishment view, for example:



> For geographical, political and historical reasons, remote island nations such as Australia and authoritarian regimes with large land frontiers tend to favour strict arrangements, whereas nations like the UK, which depend heavily on trade and movement, tend to favour more liberal ones.



There are a bunch of other relevant quotes in the same document, including the authorities own perceptions about the nature of policing in different countries, but rather than quote these again now I will just link to my longer post about it. Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion


----------



## Petcha (Aug 31, 2021)

elbows said:


> We could argue about the details of that for a long time, so for a start I would split it into at least two different things.
> 
> 1) The actual realities of what approaches were plausible here in the UK.
> 
> ...



Your post in the UK thread looks really very good. Gonna have a proper read after lunch.

I personally don't think a 'total suppression' strategy would have worked here but at least some semblance of it might have reduced many thousands of deaths. People are wandering around now like everything is completely normal. Everything is not completely normal.


----------



## elbows (Aug 31, 2021)

Cheers. It would be rather interesting to see how many times the UK approach would need to fail and blow up in their face before sincere attempts to try a different approach were attempted.

But of course I dont actually want us to end up in circumstances where we ultimately discover the answer to that question. And I doubt we will, although I dont completely rule it out due to unknowns about future variants and immunity.


----------



## 2hats (Aug 31, 2021)

skyscraper101 said:


> Some interesting data about Moderna here, producing twice as many antibodies as Pfizer, apparently.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Wouldn't be entirely surprising since mRNA-1273 contains over three times as much mRNA per dose than BNT162b2 does. However, immune response post-vaccination is quite heterogeneous anyway (see spreads in kernel densities below) and the study notably reports similar responses with either vaccine in the previously infected (B).

Also note dosing interval in Belgium for BNT162b2 slightly shorter so post-vaccination sampling at N weeks post-second-dose would advantage mRNA-1273 slightly.
DOI: 10.1001/jama.2021.15125.
(The relevant preprint needs some attention - contains an obvious mistake).


----------



## Petcha (Aug 31, 2021)

Well, I think everyone is watching what's going on in NZ with interest. I see Singapore is reporting a huge rise in cases again, which used to be another gold standard of how to deal with this. NZ is in a unique position, it really, and literally is.


----------



## elbows (Aug 31, 2021)

Well propagandists have an undisguised urge to see the NZ approach fail so 'we' can feel better about our deadly approach.

We dont hear so much these days about claims the world is watching the UKs 'bold' summer 2021 approach to see if it offers hope that other nations can proceed to get shit on their knees whilst capitulating to the invisible mugger in future too. But I'm sure we'll hear much more about this again should a stage arrive where it looks like the UK has actually gotten away with that approach.


----------



## Petcha (Aug 31, 2021)

elbows said:


> Well propagandists have an undisguised urge to see the NZ approach fail so 'we' can feel better about our deadly approach.
> 
> We dont hear so much these days about claims the world is watching the UKs 'bold' summer 2021 approach to see if it offers hope that other nations can proceed to get shit on their knees whilst capitulating to the invisible mugger in future too. But I'm sure we'll hear much more about this again should a stage arrive where it looks like the UK has actually gotten away with that approach.



Yeh, I can see that. A friend of mine said she was feeling a bit of schadenfreude when the NZ outbreak happened. Which is an odd reaction, based on jealousy I guess. I still can't see how they can keep it up though. You know much more than me about this but surely at some point they're going to need to just accept they're going to have to open their borders and adopt herd immunity (which is pretty much what we're doing)?


----------



## elbows (Aug 31, 2021)

Herd immunity as we were sold it is currently dead, since vaccines arent preventing enough Delta infections to fully enable that scenario, especially when combined with the unvaccinated in the population. Plus the R for a particular variant affects what percentage of the population having immunity would be necessary to theoretically see a herd immunity effect. I've forgotten the exact numbers but we might have started the pandemic with a version pf the virus that suggested we'd need 70-75% population immunity, and these days its more like 90%+

So I wouldnt use that term at the moment, but yes NZ do plan to change approach at some stage. But not in winter with their current levels of vaccination.

In recent months the indications have been that they will start to do some limited pilot trials of letting in travellers much later in 2021, with a view to actually starting to unlock properly from quarter 1 2022 onwards.

eg Fortress New Zealand eyes opening to vaccinated travellers early 2022


----------



## Petcha (Aug 31, 2021)

From that article - Ardern is only 41. I feel very very old. I hope they hold their nerve but 2022 is a very long way away. At some point there's got to be a bit of a rebellion.

They're only going to be letting people in from 'safe countries' anyway so that's us ruled out


----------



## elbows (Aug 31, 2021)

Petcha said:


> From that article - Ardern is only 41. I feel very very old. I hope they hold their nerve but 2022 is a very long way away. At some point there's got to be a bit of a rebellion.
> 
> They're only going to be letting people in from 'safe countries' anyway so that's us ruled out



A rebellion is far from inevitable. Support was still strong back in July, although it would be foolish to make strong predictions. Risks include non-Covid politics, slow vaccine rollout, and any big failures managing the current situation.


----------



## extra dry (Sep 1, 2021)

Some views from medical community - Basically you are going to get ill -


----------



## gentlegreen (Sep 1, 2021)

What about those of us with a monk-like existence who may not get this "natural booster" before the vaccine has worn off ?

If I get exposed I want it to be a small viral load so via a mask.


----------



## Yossarian (Sep 1, 2021)

Petcha said:


> Well, I think everyone is watching what's going on in NZ with interest. I see Singapore is reporting a huge rise in cases again, which used to be another gold standard of how to deal with this. NZ is in a unique position, it really, and literally is.



Hong Kong is going for zero COVID with somewhat more success than Singapore - mainland China as well, not that I would trust any official figures from Beijing.

Taiwan's success in containing an outbreak earlier this year might give NZ some hope:


----------



## extra dry (Sep 1, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> What about those of us with a monk-like existence who may not get this "natural booster" before the vaccine has worn off ?
> 
> If I get exposed I want it to be a small viral load so via a mask.


How is your own physical health?

 Do you use vit D and zinc suppliments? 

I know you are a very healthy eater and are you doing your bike riding? Are people allowed out more now in the uk? 
  What normally happens when you get flu? Take thing easy, keep up fluid intake, try to exercise daily. Best of luck.


----------



## Chairman Meow (Sep 1, 2021)

I just want to point out that NZ is not unique. I am in WA, where we also have a zero Covid policy (at the minute), supported by a closed border, and the fact that we are pretty bloody remote. The only Covid we have is coming by plane boat or truck driver, and is in hospital or quarantine. We have a normal life, everything is open and we don't need to wear masks. If any Covid escapes into the community (usually quarantine breaches), we have been having short sharp lockdowns. Anyway, now there is a push from that twat Scomo to open everything up, I suspect our glorious isolation won't last after they reach the 80% vaccinated target. I am double jabbed, so hopefully will be fine, as quite frankly our hospitals just aren't up to coping with a Covid surge. And obviously as no-one has had Covid, there is no natural immunity.  So it could get interesting! My local train station car park has just been set up as a drive in testing clinic, so looks like changes are coming!


----------



## Chairman Meow (Sep 1, 2021)

And just to give a little perspective, the Covid Australian death toll just passed 1,000 today, here in WA we have had nine deaths, all way back in April and May 2020.


----------



## gentlegreen (Sep 1, 2021)

extra dry said:


> How is your own physical health?
> 
> Do you use vit D and zinc suppliments?
> 
> ...



I took vitamin D during the winter and get out in the UV every day.
My weight is approaching ideal and I OD on vitamins and minerals...
I don't get in enough miles on the bike since retiring from the petri dish - need to work on that - plus strength exercises.
My one real co-morbidity is age...

My immune system tends towards over-enthusiasm and properly jumped on the AstraZeneca, but I haven't had significant bronchitis or even snottiness in decades...


----------



## extra dry (Sep 1, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> I took vitamin D during the winter and get out in the UV every day.
> My weight is approaching ideal and I OD on vitamins and minerals...
> I don't get in enough miles on the bike since retiring from the petri dish - need to work on that - plus strength exercises.
> My one real co-morbidity is age...
> ...


Sounds like you are a lot fitter and healthier than many other people. If you can get an oxygen meter/monitor, check your levels, think the normal is 96%_ 98%.
  Mask up, use 70% alcohol rub on your hands, but I guess you know and have been doing this. 
  Try breathing exercises maybe, goggle them, it helps lungs and to relax/maintain calmness. Good luck, I am sure you will fine.


----------



## elbows (Sep 1, 2021)




----------



## 2hats (Sep 2, 2021)

From this year's Alzheimer’s Association International Conference (AAIC):








						COVID-19 Associated with Long-Term Cognitive Dysfunction, Acceleration of Alzheimer’s Symptoms | AAIC 2021
					

New research reported at AAIC 2021 found associations between COVID-19 and persistent cognitive deficits, including Alzheimer’s disease pathology and symptoms.




					www.alz.org
				





> Key results reported at AAIC 2021 include:
> 
> Biological markers of brain injury, neuroinflammation and Alzheimer’s correlate strongly with the presence of neurological symptoms in COVID-19 patients.
> Individuals experiencing cognitive decline post-COVID-19 infection were more likely to have low blood oxygen following brief physical exertion as well as poor overall physical condition.


----------



## kabbes (Sep 2, 2021)

Fuuuuu…


----------



## Badgers (Sep 2, 2021)

Things like this and other long Covid issues are going to be a lifetime legacy of this shit sadly 

I know kids need to be at school but they are getting this and a % will carry for their whole lives


----------



## Supine (Sep 3, 2021)




----------



## Supine (Sep 3, 2021)

The Indonesian navy is sending sixty boats and warships out to find unvaccinated people for jabs. With 17,000 islands and an unknown number of fishermen working them. Kudos  





__





						INDONESIA SETS SAIL ON MARITIME VACCINATION DRIVE
					

INDONESIA: Indonesia is taking its vaccination drive to the sea as the world's biggest archipelago nation ramps up a bid to innoculate its huge popula...




					infofish.org


----------



## Petcha (Sep 3, 2021)

elbows said:


>




That's undeniably impressive. I still don't see how it's sustainable though. If that person quarantined (like proper fascist quarantine, with 20 mins exercise a day and thats it) for 2 weeks and still managed to get through with Delta then surely that's going to keep happening.


----------



## elbows (Sep 3, 2021)

Well its not like they are trying to sustain that approach forever more. If they manage to keep a lid on the infections that resulted from that incident then I dont see why they shouldnt be able to carry on doing so for the remaining months before they change approach, especially once they get past winter. This is not the same as me guaranteeing success, but in their position it would be bloody stupid not to try.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Sep 4, 2021)

These 7 deaths are from early 2020


----------



## Aladdin (Sep 4, 2021)

The change in policy here in Ireland is terrifying for those of us with inadequate vaccine response.
After 18 months cocooning to now know that delta will hit everyone...is really scary.


----------



## David Clapson (Sep 4, 2021)

How's this for a headline?

Gunshot Victims Left Waiting as Horse Dewormer Overdoses Overwhelm Oklahoma Hospitals​








						One Hospital Denies Oklahoma Doctor's Story of Ivermectin Overdoses Causing ER Delays for Gunshot Victims
					

The hospital says it hasn’t experienced any care backlog due to patients overdosing on a drug that’s been falsely peddled as a covid cure




					www.rollingstone.com


----------



## Aladdin (Sep 7, 2021)

Two of the newest Covid-19 variants, Mu and Lambda, found in Ireland
					

WHO adds Mu and Lambda to list of ‘variants of interest’ as 11 cases identified here




					www.irishtimes.com
				




😟


----------



## Supine (Sep 7, 2021)

Only of interest. No need to worry at this point.


----------



## Aladdin (Sep 7, 2021)

Supine said:


> Only of interest. No need to worry at this point.



Doesnt make me feel any safer knowing that.
😳


----------



## 2hats (Sep 7, 2021)

2hats said:


> Lambda/C.37 has typically been crushed by delta/B.1.617.2 everywhere outside of Peru (where lambda has a large head start). Note in particular other South American countries except Chile, where perhaps lambda has its best 'chance'. Though B.1.621 may be one to keep an eye on there; it has started popping up in several places in recent weeks, having dominated Colombia for some time, but gradually, of late, delta and lambda have been pushing past it (might be worth watching to try to gauge relative advantage)*.


Not entirely unsurprisingly delta/B.1.617.2 now usurping all the other variants in Colombia, as it did earlier in Ecuador:


----------



## 2hats (Sep 7, 2021)

MRI study finds COVID-19 linked to eye abnormalities - here nodules in the rear, posterior pole, of the eyeball.

Commentary here.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1148/radiol.2021204394.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Sep 7, 2021)

2hats said:


> Not entirely unsurprisingly delta/B.1.617.2 now usurping all the other variants in Colombia, as it did earlier in Ecuador:
> View attachment 287212 View attachment 287213


Can we infer from this that Mu and Lambda won't take off where Delta is currently dominant or is it just my unscientific brain looking for some good news?


----------



## 2hats (Sep 7, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> Can we infer from this that Mu and Lambda won't take off where Delta is currently dominant or is it just my unscientific brain looking for some good news?


Doesn't seem that likely but localised environmental and behavioural factors can tip matters in favour of another variant (eg see Peru, though insufficient sequencing data of late to be sure of the current state of play there - some suggestions that delta may be growing).


----------



## MrCurry (Sep 7, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> Two of the newest Covid-19 variants, Mu and Lambda, found in Ireland
> 
> 
> WHO adds Mu and Lambda to list of ‘variants of interest’ as 11 cases identified here
> ...


The “lambada variant“ as some clueless tv newsman described  it


----------



## miss direct (Sep 9, 2021)

As I'm back in Turkey, thought I'd share an update from here.

Masks mandatory here everywhere outside the home, but unlike earlier in 2020, are largely ignored outside. Everyone wears inside (without whinging) though.

Since the 6th of September, there are new laws regarding vaccination. Everyone has a code, which shows their vaccination status. You need to show this for things like checking into hotels/going to events/taking coaches or flights. If you're not fully vaccinated, you have to have a PCR test every 48 hours (or when you need it for those things mentioned). You have to pay for this yourself (prices are much more reasonable here than the UK, but expensive for an average local.

I'm taking part in a training programme involving hundreds of people. We're all staying in the same place (although in separate apartments) and spending the day in classrooms together. However, windows and doors are always open, masks are worn consistently, I eat and drink outside only, and everyone involved is either fully vaccinated or taking PCR tests every 2 days as mentioned above.

There's some strange stuff about tests and numbers though. Case numbers are relatively low, but death numbers are high in comparison. There are no lateral flow tests freely available the way they are in the UK. I brought a few packs with me.


----------



## Supine (Sep 9, 2021)

Malaysia has a really good covid dashboard.









						COVIDNOW in Malaysia - COVIDNOW
					

The official Malaysia government website for data and insights on COVID-19.




					covidnow.moh.gov.my


----------



## Badgers (Sep 9, 2021)

Supine said:


> Malaysia has a really good covid dashboard.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Really impressive that


----------



## Dogsauce (Sep 11, 2021)

Supine said:


> Malaysia has a really good covid dashboard.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


What does ‘PKRC’ mean though? Googling seems to suggest some sort of centre, something people go to before hospital (isolation centre maybe?)


----------



## MrCurry (Sep 12, 2021)

Dogsauce said:


> What does ‘PKRC’ mean though? Googling seems to suggest some sort of centre, something people go to before hospital (isolation centre maybe?)


Pandemic something reception centre?


----------



## Supine (Sep 12, 2021)

Dogsauce said:


> What does ‘PKRC’ mean though? Googling seems to suggest some sort of centre, something people go to before hospital (isolation centre maybe?)



low risk isolation centre. So i guess people who are quarantining but not necessarily covid positive


----------



## extra dry (Sep 12, 2021)

David Clapson said:


> How's this for a headline?
> 
> Gunshot Victims Left Waiting as Horse Dewormer Overdoses Overwhelm Oklahoma Hospitals​
> 
> ...


Really? this story that turned out to be a tissue of Iies.


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Sep 12, 2021)

Poor gorillas  









						Thirteen gorillas test positive for Covid at Atlanta zoo
					

Western lowland gorillas are believed to have caught the virus from a zookeeper




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## spring-peeper (Sep 16, 2021)




----------



## miss direct (Sep 18, 2021)

I'm on a coach in Turkey. I'd wanted to avoid these but friend's car broke down and had no choice. The system here is supposed to mean that to get on an inter city coach you have to show your code that proves you're vaccinated or otherwise you have to have a negative PCR test. However, I wasn't asked for either of those things which proves to me that this is just for show.

Everyone wears masks here (on transport and there are no exemptions.) The man opposite me wasn't wearing one..when the bus man passed, I signalled to him and man is now masked up. 👍


----------



## miss direct (Sep 18, 2021)

Not trying to make it seem better than it is. A lot of its just for show. Another woman rolled up and practically sat on top of me with mask on chin. I've moved to the back of the bus now where there's yet another unmasked person. Oh well 🙍‍♀️


----------



## gentlegreen (Sep 20, 2021)

'Funeral home' sponsors advert urging people not to get vaccinated
					

But it's not quite what it seems...




					metro.co.uk


----------



## Badgers (Sep 20, 2021)

My word


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Sep 21, 2021)

KFC smuggking attempt in Auckland
Those are weird times.


----------



## bimble (Sep 21, 2021)

Is it just my perception or are we getting almost no news now about how other countries are coping, apart from Canada and America perhaps. It seems that way to me. Just had a call with someone in Guatemala, she was saying every week now someone in her immediate circle family or work dies of covid, curfews still in place schools still shut all year, very very low take up of vaccines. Tourists are back & mostly maskless. She looked so exhausted.


----------



## Badgers (Sep 21, 2021)

bimble said:


> Is it just my perception or are we getting almost no news now about how other countries are coping, apart from Canada and America perhaps. It seems that way to me. Just had a call with someone in Guatemala, she was saying every week now someone in her immediate circle family or work dies of covid, curfews still in place schools still shut all year, very very low take up of vaccines. Tourists are back & mostly maskless. She looked so exhausted.


Yup. 

News from India went from hysteria to nothing. 

Iran? Indonesia? Other?


----------



## weltweit (Sep 21, 2021)

Badgers said:


> News from India went from hysteria to nothing.











						TOI Coronavirus Live Tracker: How India is fighting coronavirus. Updates, myth-busters, tips and more
					

COVID 19 Tracker live: Check all the latest news and breaking news updates on Coronavirus in India and across the world on Times of India




					timesofindia.indiatimes.com
				





Badgers said:


> Iran? Indonesia? Other?











						Iran COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Iran Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						Iran (Islamic Republic of): WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard With Vaccination Data
					

Iran (Islamic Republic of) Coronavirus(COVID-19) statistics. Total and daily confirmed cases and deaths.




					covid19.who.int
				












						Indonesia quells COVID, but is a new wave on the way?
					

Experts worry about outbreaks in provinces, as situation in Jakarta, Java and Bali comes under control.




					www.aljazeera.com


----------



## Badgers (Sep 22, 2021)

Cheers weltweit 

Was talking more about UK news


----------



## Yossarian (Sep 22, 2021)

bimble said:


> Is it just my perception or are we getting almost no news now about how other countries are coping, apart from Canada and America perhaps. It seems that way to me. Just had a call with someone in Guatemala, she was saying every week now someone in her immediate circle family or work dies of covid, curfews still in place schools still shut all year, very very low take up of vaccines. Tourists are back & mostly maskless. She looked so exhausted.



Yep, there seems to be very little coverage of the course of the pandemic in countries that aren't majority white - there's not much reporting on how Mongolia went from COVID success story to COVID disaster, or on how China is seemingly succeeding with a zero COVID strategy for 1.4 billion people. 

Though the latter case is probably because Beijing has expelled a lot of foreign journalists and those that remain probably have as much chance of freely investigating the COVID situation as they do of getting a handjob from Xi Jinping.


----------



## bimble (Sep 22, 2021)

Some of it (lack of coverage in the news) will just be that it’s not clickworthy, everyone’s bored of covid news. But I wonder if it’s also a concern that if we know too much about the global situation we might not all want our booster jabs, idk. Very strong “sod it we’ve got ours” feel to it all.


----------



## Yossarian (Sep 22, 2021)

bimble said:


> Some of it (lack of coverage in the news) will just be that it’s not clickworthy, everyone’s bored of covid news. But I wonder if it’s also a concern that if we know too much about the global situation we might not all want our booster jabs, idk. Very strong “sod it we’ve got ours” feel to it all.



There's a lot of COVID fatigue, and stories about things like health emergencies in Peru weren't especially big news even in the Before Times.

The only international COVID stories that seem to be getting a lot of attention are ones from Western countries that play into existing stereotypes: New Zealanders being quirky and Trumpy Americans being stupid.


----------



## Teaboy (Sep 22, 2021)

bimble said:


> Is it just my perception or are we getting almost no news now about how other countries are coping, apart from Canada and America perhaps. It seems that way to me. Just had a call with someone in Guatemala, she was saying every week now someone in her immediate circle family or work dies of covid, curfews still in place schools still shut all year, very very low take up of vaccines. Tourists are back & mostly maskless. She looked so exhausted.



I think news cycles probably have a lot to do with it.  Even domestically covid has drifted into teh background because of so many other things going on at the moment.  As other mention fatigue will be a big factor , we've been living this for a long time now and a lot of people are just bored with it.  This phrase I heard a lot in summer "We just need to get on with it now".

There's always something bad going on somewhere which gets very little coverage so its not that surprising covid coverage of Central America etc is not really happening.  I also have a feeling that the official numbers in a lot of countries are being downplayed anyway so its only when speaking with ordinary people who live out there a truer picture appears.  Guatemala along with El Salvador are both amber list because apparently its not too bad...

With tourism its always been an incredibly difficult bind.  So many economies are so utterly dependent on it, so many livelihoods.  I don't know what poorer countries are really supposed to do.  Poverty will kill way more this year and is a disease that is passed through generations.  I can see why some governments can only live with closed borders for so long.

When I get bored I have a look through the UK government Foreign Office travel advice regarding other countries.  Its quite interesting to see the various travel restrictions that are in place and also the various local rules regarding covid.  It really shows up the limited tools some governments have for fighting this.


----------



## bimble (Sep 22, 2021)

Yep I find the whole subject of what different governments are doing really interesting still. It’s rare that one problem (the same disease) is everywhere and the responses are so revealing.
Woman in Guatemala explained for instance that every time you enter the town by road , for months now, government employees in hazmat gear spray you with unknown fumigation stuff from a spray bottle, your face and body, requiring people to get off the bus stand in line for this frightening and utterly pointless theatre. She thinks thats not helped the vaccine refusal rates.

Jamaica is having a terrible time as well, according to recent phonecall, again very very low trust in the vaccine and she said people are being left lying outside the overflowing hospitals. Curfew in some places with children expected to stay at home from Friday night to Monday morning. Cruise ships from the states are welcome.


----------



## Badgers (Sep 22, 2021)




----------



## Teaboy (Sep 22, 2021)

The curfew approach in various different forms is still a pretty popular choice for governments of smaller economies.  Makes sense really as a low cost / low impact approach.  I don't know how effective it is.


----------



## Balbi (Sep 24, 2021)

Sorry, been away for a bit. Locked down in the Level 3 stage, which is like the tightest one except you can do no-contact pickups from takeaways and stores that are able to do that.

9 cases today, all epidemiologically linked to the outbreak - we've had a rumble of some mystery cases even in lockdown, but our contract tracers are chasing them down.

On our vaccination programme, we didn't try and jump the queue - because we had zero covid for almost a whole year. Other countries needed the vaccine faster and first to try and mitigate the widespread community transmission that was going on. Our Tories are playing hell about that, but nobody's really listening to them. We also went with Pfizer and stuck with it, and it's worked so far - out of 4,000,000+ doses we've had 1 death due to myocardioitis, which is sad. 

We've got 75.8% of all eligible people with at least one dose, 41% are fully vaxxed. 

The aim is to hit 90%+ and then see what happens after that. 4,210,000 out of 5,000,000 are eligible for the vaccine, which goes down to 12+ now.


----------



## Fruitloop (Sep 24, 2021)

What things might look like in an alternate universe, with a government that isn't 100% cunt


----------



## elbows (Sep 24, 2021)

Never forget what the UK press tried to do with the winter situation in New Zealand and Australia.


----------



## teuchter (Sep 24, 2021)

Fruitloop said:


> What things might look like in an alternate universe, with a government that isn't 100% cunt


It's nuts to think that the UK's best case scenario could have been anything like New Zealand. Maybe the UK could have done as well as somewhere like Denmark. Maybe.


----------



## elbows (Sep 24, 2021)

teuchter said:


> It's nuts to think that the UK's best case scenario could have been anything like New Zealand. Maybe the UK could have done as well as somewhere like Denmark. Maybe.



Its that sort of cant do mentality that ensured we didnt come within a hundred thousand deaths of finding out just how well we could have done.


----------



## elbows (Sep 24, 2021)

I mean there were real differences and challenges, but those became an excuse not to bother trying. And then they still ended up having to abandon a lot of their assumptions about what we could or should do anyway, because we got the hospitalisation sums and the timing all wrong.

I still feel sick when I think about all the things we didnt even bother considering because of bullshit establishment attitudes in regards how the likes of Australia have 'colonial era policing' as opposed to our 'consent based form of policing'.


----------



## teuchter (Sep 24, 2021)

elbows said:


> Its that sort of cant do mentality that ensured we didnt come within a hundred thousand deaths of finding out just how well we could have done.


I don't really think it's a can't do mentality to believe we could have had something like a quarter of the deaths we've had - by looking at the best performing out of reasonably comparable countries. I simply think that New Zealand has so many significant differences from the UK, that it's not really useful as a comparison. And factored into my judgement of how much better we could have done, is what I reckon would have been politically acceptable to most people in the UK.


----------



## elbows (Sep 24, 2021)

Assumptions about what would have been politically acceptable were a self-fulfilling pandemic prophecy. And they've got very little to do with what the masses would have accepted, and everything to do with what the powerful were prepared to entertain.

Given how much the establishment here ended up having to think the unthinkable anyway, and the large range of possibilities in regards how far we could have gone in a different direction if the framing had been totally different, I keep an open mind about what was actually possible. 

All bets are off as far a Im concerned because the original Plan A was built on such shitty foundations and yet when reality bit it still went down the toilet in record time. Establishment attitudes were the primary limiting factor to our ambitions.


----------



## Yossarian (Sep 24, 2021)

elbows said:


> Assumptions about what would have been politically acceptable were a self-fulfilling pandemic prophecy.



I think the part with having almost no COVID deaths and a year of no masks, restrictions on gatherings etc. while most other places were in some form of lockdown would have been very politically acceptable.


----------



## teuchter (Sep 24, 2021)

What would be acceptable if we saw something similar coming in say 5 years from now might be quite different. But to achieve something comparable to NZ, as far as I can see the UK would have had to completely shut down all its borders including all the massive disruption that would cause to food supplies and so on, and it would have had to do it in something like January 2020. 

Totally agree we probably could have gone into lockdown much sooner than we did, and it could potentially have been sold to and accepted by most of the population, but I don't see how that could have achieved a result like NZ's.


----------



## Supine (Sep 24, 2021)

NZ is a crap comparison tbh, its way away from everyone. Would France not be a more similar country to compare with?


----------



## Chz (Sep 24, 2021)

Supine said:


> NZ is a crap comparison tbh, its way away from everyone. Would France not be a more similar country to compare with?


Japan would be better, as a densely populated island with close links to its neighbours.


----------



## teuchter (Sep 24, 2021)

The UK effectively isn't really an island - it's connected to the continent by multiple short links through which a large amount of accompanied freight travels.

Japan doesn't have close links to its neighbours in the same way at all. Its closest neighbour is South Korea which is a 10-12 hour sea crossing. 

Some hasty googling tells me that Japan imports about 10% of its food and presumably only a small fraction of that accompanied.

In contrast the UK imports about 25% of its food from the EU and I would guess quite a large proportion of that is accompanied.

So the consequences of Japan closing its borders to people are very different from the UK doing the same.


----------



## Fruitloop (Sep 24, 2021)

I think the salient point in the UK is that it would never even try to implement something like that, because the British state just doesn't do that sort of thing. In fact, it has a history of not bothering to play that game - look at the Orissa famine, where the then governor tried to import rice to alleviate the food shortages and was heavily criticized because according to the Economist it might give people "the mistaken impression that it was the government's job to keep them alive'.

Would it have been more difficult that it was in NZ? Maybe, but NZ is not Craggy Island as some people seem to imagine - there are plenty of challenges around for example commercial and recreational boat traffic. Would it have been harder here than in any of the countries that have done better, like Taiwan etc? Probably not, but the point is that no-one made the slightest fucking effort to do anything until the whole place was fucked, you've got 150k dead, maybe a million cases of long covid, a crippled health system, and honestly anyone who thinks it will be better in the next pandemic with these or similar shitheads in charge is dreaming.


----------



## elbows (Sep 24, 2021)

Thats also why I have no intention of limiting my sense of what our ambitions could have been to what people think was achievable in various other EU countries, because lots of those other countries tended to have similar establishment attitudes, assumptions and priorities as the UK establishment! 

There are huge challenges and some practical limits to what could be achieved whilst still retaining essential imports. But Im not going to use what was actually achieved in other countries as a complete guide as to what was actually possible if the will had been there.


----------



## krtek a houby (Sep 27, 2021)

Celebrations in Norway, following the lifting of restrictions

Mass brawls reported in Norway as country celebrates lifting of Covid restrictions


----------



## Raheem (Sep 27, 2021)

krtek a houby said:


> Celebrations in Norway, following the lifting of restrictions
> 
> Mass brawls reported in Norway as country celebrates lifting of Covid restrictions


Tfb, single men won't have had the opportunity to give anyone a black eye for eighteen months.


----------



## MrCurry (Sep 27, 2021)

I don’t understand the logic in all these countries lifting all restrictions, and I don’t say that as code for “I don’t approve of it”, I mean it literally- I don’t understand why they think it’s the right thing to be doing. Sweden is doing the same at the end of this month. All restrictions cancelled. 

The virus has not gone away and we know even fully vaccinated people can catch it, pass it on and become seriously sick. So what’s the perceived benefit of rolling back restrictions and letting the virus get passed around more efficiently?


----------



## elbows (Sep 27, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> I don’t understand the logic in all these countries lifting all restrictions, and I don’t say that as code for “I don’t approve of it”, I mean it literally- I don’t understand why they think it’s the right thing to be doing. Sweden is doing the same at the end of this month. All restrictions cancelled.
> 
> The virus has not gone away and we know even fully vaccinated people can catch it, pass it on and become seriously sick. So what’s the perceived benefit of rolling back restrictions and letting the virus get passed around more efficiently?



Well a large number of countries would have been very tempted to let it rip in the first place, even before the vaccine era, if they were really confident that the number of hospitalisations would not break their healthcare systems.

So a lot of the strong responses were simply about that numbers game and now that game has changed. There are obviously still some risks, but if they have to u-turn again in winter they'd mostly still prefer to give it a try now anyway.

And if they need additional justifications for that sort of stance, they can poke around in areas such as 'vaccine isnt completely preventing cases but hybrid immunity from combination of vaccine and infection seems to confer much greater protection' and 'everyone will catch it or be exposed to it at some point'.

This is not how I would have ideally handled the exit from the acute phase of the pandemic, its not without risk and some people will end up dead as a result, but I can see why authorities went down this path at this time.


----------



## MrCurry (Sep 27, 2021)

elbows said:


> Well a large number of countries would have been very tempted to let it rip in the first place, even before the vaccine era, if they were really confident that the number of hospitalisations would not break their healthcare systems.
> 
> So a lot of the strong responses were simply about that numbers game and now that game has changed. There are obviously still some risks, but if they have to u-turn again in winter they'd mostly still prefer to give it a try now anyway.



Thanks, I’m sure you’re right as throughout the pandemic, the economy seems to have weighed more heavily on some politicians’ minds than the value of lives lost.



elbows said:


> And if they need additional justifications for that sort of stance, they can poke around in areas such as 'vaccine isnt completely preventing cases but hybrid immunity from combination of vaccine and infection seems to confer much greater protection' and 'everyone will catch it or be exposed to it at some point'.


This bit about hybrid immunity might be what I was missing in my thinking. I didn’t realise that catching it after having been vaccinated puts you in a much better position after recovery than just being vaccinated alone.

Thanks elbows


----------



## elbows (Sep 27, 2021)

In terms of economic considerations and lives lost, I'm reasonably confident that even on a forum like u75, if it had only been a question of the deaths then I think more people would have argued against a strong, disruptive response to the pandemic. Because they would have pointed to the advanced age of the majority of those killed by the virus.

We were spared more of that shit only because the age profile of those requiring hospitalisation was far broader, and the magnitude of hospitalisations so huge.


----------



## 2hats (Sep 27, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> I didn’t realise that catching it after having been vaccinated puts you in a much better position after recovery than just being vaccinated alone.


Only if you could guarantee recovering with zero consequences, otherwise it doesn't. Avoiding getting infected at all is the best gambit.


----------



## elbows (Sep 27, 2021)

2hats said:


> Only if you could guarantee recovering with zero consequences, otherwise it doesn't. Avoiding getting infected at all is the best gambit.



Thats still my preferred approach but I'm aware that authorities and some individuals seek a much quicker exit from the situation, there is a lack of staying power for reasons good and bad.


----------



## Dogsauce (Sep 27, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> Thanks, I’m sure you’re right as throughout the pandemic, the economy seems to have weighed more heavily on some politicians’ minds than the value of lives lost.
> 
> 
> This bit about hybrid immunity might be what I was missing in my thinking. I didn’t realise that catching it after having been vaccinated puts you in a much better position after recovery than just being vaccinated alone.
> ...


I thought Hybrid (or at least the most beneficial version) was actually the other way round, I.e. infection then vaccine?


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Sep 28, 2021)

Dogsauce said:


> I thought Hybrid (or at least the most beneficial version) was actually the other way round, I.e. infection then vaccine?


that is the known part, the other
 way around  is being studied now


----------



## deeyo (Oct 1, 2021)

this might be of interest. the impact of the pandemic on life expectancy.









						COVID-19 has caused the biggest decrease in life expectancy since World War II | University of Oxford
					

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered life expectancy losses not seen since World War II in Western Europe and exceeded those observed around the dissolution of the Eastern Bloc in central and Eastern European countries, according to research published today, led by scientists at Oxford’s Leverhulme...




					www.ox.ac.uk
				












						Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic through life-expectancy losses: a population-level study of 29 countries
					

AbstractBackground. Variations in the age patterns and magnitudes of excess deaths, as well as differences in population sizes and age structures, make cross-na




					academic.oup.com


----------



## Teaboy (Oct 1, 2021)

Singapore is apparently having a rather quiet outbreak at the moment.  I have a friend who lives there and he reckons that they're up to 3000 cases a day which is roughly equivalent to 40,000 in the UK (adjusted for population).  I've not checked his maths.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 1, 2021)

I see Australia is reopening its international border next month, but not initially to foreigners. 









						Australian border to reopen for first time in pandemic
					

Vaccinated Australians can start travelling abroad from November, ending an 18-month ban.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## nagapie (Oct 1, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> I see Australia is reopening its international border next month, but not initially to foreigners.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I have a friend trying to get there with her two children. Her husband returned, he's Australian although I think she has citizenship too, to look for work before they joined him. Then Covid hit, now they've been separated for over two years.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 1, 2021)

Russia doing quite bad with deaths shooting to their highest level since the start of the pandemic, and that is the underestimated daily reports which tend to be revised seriously higher up later on.


----------



## Supine (Oct 2, 2021)

Really interesting graph for vaccination status


----------



## _Russ_ (Oct 3, 2021)

This looks promising Merck says COVID-19 pill cuts risk of death, hospitalization

...not sure what the chances of it becoming widely available via our Broken NHS are though.


----------



## kabbes (Oct 3, 2021)

_Russ_ said:


> This looks promising Merck says COVID-19 pill cuts risk of death, hospitalization
> 
> ...not sure what the chances of it becoming widely available via our Broken NHS are though.


It looks dramatically problematic to me.

This is a pill you have to take _before_ things get bad in order to be effective.  Which means you are asking _everybody_ that tests positive to medicate.  As well as the big problem that medication always has side-effects, there are also the issues that come with routinely medicating huge chunks of the population — cost and medicalisation of everyday life to name but two.

And then for all that, it only actually cuts hospitalisation and death by half.  Half those who would have been severely ill still will be severely ill.  This is an improvement in a context-free vacuum.  However, in the real world, you can expect that people who believe there is a safety net will act in riskier fashion.  There’s every chance that behaviour change will undo the benefit of the drug. 

So we have the mass medicalisation of hundreds of thousands of people per week with all the problems that brings and the likelihood that it’s for no benefit anyway, since behaviour change makes up the slack.  That’s all great for the profits of Merck but a bit shit for society.

Meanwhile, I’ve not even touched the fact that people who believe there is a cure are less likely to take the vaccine…


----------



## Raheem (Oct 3, 2021)

kabbes said:


> This is a pill you have to take _before_ things get bad in order to be effective.  Which means you are asking _everybody_ that tests positive to medicate.


I don't know how it is proposed to use this drug, but in the trials it was only given to people considered to be at particular risk of serious illness.


----------



## elbows (Oct 3, 2021)

Drugs like that are likely to be a useful part of the mix in terms of learning to live with covid-19 long term.


----------



## kabbes (Oct 3, 2021)

Raheem said:


> I don't know how it is proposed to use this drug, but in the trials it was only given to people considered to be at particular risk of serious illness.


It has to be given _before_ any serious illness develops though.

You know that there will be a clamour to have this from people that develop symptoms regards of their underlying risk factors. And the US courts have already shown their willingness to impose penal awards against insurance companies that refuse to pay for this kind of thing merely on the grounds that it is likely to not help.


----------



## Yossarian (Oct 4, 2021)

New Zealand has given up on its zero COVID strategy - sad to see, though I guess the delta variant may have made this inevitable.


_"We’re transitioning from our current strategy into a new way of doing things,” Ms. Ardern told reporters. “With Delta, the return to zero is incredibly difficult, and our restrictions alone are not enough to achieve that quickly. In fact, for this outbreak, it’s clear that long periods of heavy restrictions has not got us to zero cases.”

“What we have called a long tail,” she added, “feels more like a tentacle that has been incredibly hard to shake.”_









						Battling Delta, New Zealand Abandons Its Zero-Covid Ambitions
					

The country is changing course seven weeks into a lockdown that has failed to end the outbreak and tested the patience of many residents.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## elbows (Oct 4, 2021)

I'd say a number of things made it inevitable, it was only a question of when.

Timing factors:
Vaccines changed the equation.
They had a plan they were happy to show off but Delta pissed on it a bit.
They are now heading towards seasons that arent winter.
Australia revealed their exit strategy.
The situation in some parts of New Zealand dragged on for longer than what they were able to get away with effectively earlier in the pandemic.
They actually diverged away from their original approach earlier in September, but misleadingly claimed they hadnt abandoned the goal of stamping out the outbreak entirely, even though it was reasonable to conclude they had. ( ‘Calculated risk’: Ardern gambles as New Zealand Covid restrictions eased )
The opposition revealed their alternative strategy just a few days ago ( ‘Clearly not working’: How New Zealand’s consensus on striving for Covid zero is finally cracking )

I will judge them by how well they handle the next few stages and what sort of levvels of hospitalisation and death result. Minorities and the vulnerable tend to get fucked over at this phase of the pandemic response in all countries, and things will have an uncomfortable feeling in New Zealand because their extremely low number of deaths so far is expected to be dwarfed by what will come in the vaccine era. There are a lot of things they will need to do right now in order to reduce that to whatever an acceptable level is deemed to be. We'll have a fresh chance to judge their establishment and how much of a shit they really give. No reason to expect them to live up to zero covid idealists sense of balance in this pandemic, bit I'd hope they still manage to make the UK establishments 'cant be bothered' approach in so many areas look bad.

It is a shame that public announcements and fanfare about their exit plan couldnt have been neatly timed to work with appropriate vaccination milestones. But then again the plans are on paper at least still supposed to be linked to vaccinated population percentages, and part of the story may be other political and journalistic forces simply making the most of such timing by taking the opportunity to pretend other forces are in the driving seat and dictating the pace of change. Take one of those Guardian headlines as an example, "finally cracking".

 But then I've probably ended up playing my own role in this stupid dance of using New Zealand to make broader pandemic political points, in my case usually in response to others using it in this way first. New Zealand and zero covid approach embarrassed those responsible for some other approaches and the resulting amount of death, even when the zero covid ambitions were temporary. One way to reduce that embarrassment about our priorities was apparently to go on the attack at every opportunity, writing stuff in the press that makes zero covid sound like a disease more worthy of eradication than covid itself. And of course I always felt the need to get gobby in opposition to such attacks. Hopefully I managed to show suitable admiration for zero covid ambitions whilst acknowledging various limitations, very much including its temporary nature, not sure I know of anyone who thought it would be sustained too far into the vaccination era. I'm sure there are people here who thought I went too far when talking about zero covid and what countries like the UK could or should have done, and I can understand why. But I dont feel bad about my stance because hopefully I made it clear that its about ambition and actually bothering to try to do as much as possible during the acute phases of a pandemic when there are few alternatives. Where all the options have downsides so at least start with the ones that involve the least death. That phase doesnt last forever, and if it drags on long enough in terms of the fundamentals then its inevitable people will pretend otherwise. ie I wanted us to do more and be more cautious but I am something of a realist about timescales I hope. I never expected that I'd be stuck to the same pandemic stance for too many years in a row, I know that people feel the need to move on and other parts of the balancing act grow heavier over time. Ideally the immunity/susceptibility picture moves at about the same pace as peoples attitudes to the virus, but its probably asking a bit much for these things to be perfectly in sync. And so the exit phases tend to be a bit messy and give me various reasons to moan. But move on we will, and even if I lag behind that a bit I will still be moving too.


----------



## teuchter (Oct 4, 2021)

elbows said:


> I will judge them by how well they handle the next few stages and what sort of levvels of hospitalisation and death result.



How do you think it will be possible to make an assessment of how well they are doing - given that there's not really any other country to compare them with? And it already seems accepted that it can't be done without some degree of death and hospitalisation.


----------



## elbows (Oct 5, 2021)

teuchter said:


> How do you think it will be possible to make an assessment of how well they are doing - given that there's not really any other country to compare them with? And it already seems accepted that it can't be done without some degree of death and hospitalisation.


I'll use a mix of the following sort of things:

What measures they are prepared to keep in place (masks etc) and the timing of their relaxations
The size of the gap between their rhetoric (which will reflect what they know they should be striving for) and their actual actions
The level of pressure their hospitals end up having to deal with
The extent to which they actually bother trying to protect communities which we already know from there and elsewhere face the highest burden
The evolution of public opinion there

I dont expect them to do ridiculously well because despite the aspects of their response that are worthy of praise and admiration, its not like I think New Zealand is a place with amazing political and economic beliefs and systems that stands in stark contrast to regimes everywhere else. They overachieved in the pandemic and some of those gains will probably fade away. All the same since levels of death in the vaccine era should not resemble those they would have had in the pre-vaccine era if they'd taken the same approach as our country back then, so I would hope their death totals will remain an embarrassment to other nations, especially ours.

And it will still be possible to compare them to various other countries despite some differences. Few places may have kept their numbers quite as low as New Zealand, but there are a bunch that kept them relatively low and that dont have huge levels of population immunity via prior infection. And thats certainly something that needs factoring in when judging them in the next phases, an area where depending on what happens next, we will be able to judge further the merits and downsides of their original approach. Likewise the extent to which they are forced to slam on the brakes in future will complete the picture as to just how much less time the people of that country had to spend under restrictive lockdowns etc compared to the likes of the UK, which is another key area we'll be able to use to celebrate or condemn various approaches around the world in this pandemic.


----------



## Supine (Oct 7, 2021)

This is at least the 4th investment in an african vaccine facility this month. Respect 









						Moderna to pour $500M into Africa to meet future mRNA vaccine manufacturing demand
					

Moderna is eyeing sites in Africa where it plans to build a $500 million mRNA manufacturing facility that will be able to produce hundreds of millions of vaccine doses a ye | Moderna is eyeing sites in Africa where it plans to build a $500 million mRNA manufacturing facility that will be able to...




					www.fiercepharma.com


----------



## dtb (Oct 16, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> I don’t understand the logic in all these countries lifting all restrictions, and I don’t say that as code for “I don’t approve of it”, I mean it literally- I don’t understand why they think it’s the right thing to be doing. Sweden is doing the same at the end of this month. All restrictions cancelled.
> 
> The virus has not gone away and we know even fully vaccinated people can catch it, pass it on and become seriously sick. So what’s the perceived benefit of rolling back restrictions and letting the virus get passed around more efficiently?



Because the virus is not going away, it's endemic.  Sweden hasn't had any excess death rate this year so why the need for any restrictions?


----------



## MrCurry (Oct 16, 2021)

dtb said:


> Because the virus is not going away, it's endemic.  Sweden hasn't had any excess death rate this year so why the need for any restrictions?


Because when you limit the spread, you save people from death, serious illness and long term disability.  Regardless of whether you judge the current death or infection rate as “excess” by some arbitrary standard.


----------



## dtb (Oct 16, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> Because when you limit the spread, you save people from death, serious illness and long term disability.  Regardless of whether you judge the current death or infection rate as “excess” by some arbitrary standard.



So you think restrictions should stay forever?


----------



## elbows (Oct 16, 2021)

At a minimum the restrictions should last longer than your credibility.


----------



## dtb (Oct 16, 2021)

elbows said:


> At a minimum the restrictions should last longer than your credibility.



So what would indicate the restrictions should be lifted?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 16, 2021)

dtb said:


> So you think restrictions should stay forever?



Every thing is back to normal around here, so what restrictions?


----------



## elbows (Oct 16, 2021)

dtb said:


> So what would indicate the restrictions should be lifted?


At the very minimum such decisions about restrictions will be based on hospitals ability to cope. Longer term we could improve the supply side of that picture by trying to increase healthcare capacity. In the meantime, personally I require us to get through this autumn and winter before I will begin to change my attitude towards this pandemic.


----------



## MrCurry (Oct 16, 2021)

dtb said:


> So you think restrictions should stay forever?


For as long as the virus is a threat to people, yes.


----------



## Chilli.s (Oct 16, 2021)

At the moment in the UK a person dies of covid every 10 minutes or so. I'll lift restrictions when it gets to a lot less than that


----------



## teuchter (Oct 16, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> For as long as the virus is a threat to people, yes.


Would you extend this thinking to all other (non covid) threats?


----------



## MrCurry (Oct 16, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Would you extend this thinking to all other (non covid) threats?


All other (non covid) threats do have persistent mitigating measures applied. No one is suggesting removing seatbelts from cars because road traffic deaths have fallen to a non excessive level, are they? 

When we have the means to limit death, sickness or injuries it makes sense to keep using them, not consign them to history because some selfish people find it inconvenient for their routine to get disrupted.


----------



## dtb (Oct 16, 2021)

Chilli.s said:


> At the moment in the UK a person dies of covid every 10 minutes or so. I'll lift restrictions when it gets to a lot less than that



A person can have multiple illnesses listed on their death certificate.  If they return a positive PCR test within 28 days of their death then they're recorded as a Covid death.
Covid death rates are massively over-exaggerated.


----------



## Chilli.s (Oct 16, 2021)

dtb said:


> A person can have multiple illnesses listed on their death certificate.  If they return a positive PCR test within 28 days of their death then they're recorded as a Covid death.
> Covid death rates are massively over-exaggerated.


You can do what you want, obviously you've done your own research. Just keep the fuck away from me


----------



## two sheds (Oct 16, 2021)

Half of them are run down by buses I heard.


----------



## Aladdin (Oct 16, 2021)

Apparently Ireland is heading for trouble again.
Immunologist in the telly today saying rates of infection are too high and that we cannot cope with the numbers needing hospitalisation.
He was advising...as was NPHET (Public Health) that people work from home for Autumn and Winter. 
Booster vacc have started for the over 80s and are also now recommended for over 60s. And people who are immunocompromised.

The immunologist quoted what has happened in Israel recently but didnt go into detail...
elbows would you have any info on what's after happening in Israel? They were vaccinating to beat the band last heard.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 16, 2021)

dtb said:


> A person can have multiple illnesses listed on their death certificate.  If they return a positive PCR test within 28 days of their death then they're recorded as a Covid death.
> Covid death rates are massively over-exaggerated.



You have no clue whatsoever, why don't you fuck off back to the David Icke forums, that's the home for loons, not here.


----------



## dtb (Oct 16, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> Apparently Ireland is heading for trouble again.
> Immunologist in the telly today saying rates of infection are too high and that we cannot cope with the numbers needing hospitalisation.
> He was advising...as was NPHET (Public Health) that people work from home for Autumn and Winter.
> Booster vacc have started for the over 80s and are also now recommended for over 60s. And people who are immunocompromised.
> ...




Israel is experiencing a fourth wave.  It's one of the most vaccinated countries in the world.









						The Elephants In The Room - PANDA
					

As countries focus the discussion on mandatory vaccination, PANDA is increasingly aware of the elephants in the room, the topics no one is talking about.




					www.pandata.org
				




*Israel and waning immunity*

Israel was one of the first countries to vaccinate a significant portion of its population. Over 78% of the population eligible for vaccination have had two shots and more than 10% of the Israeli population has now received a third vaccine shot. And yet, Israel is seeing a surge in cases and deaths. At the time of this article, Israel has the highest number of per capita COVID-19 cases in the world.

Unlike COVID vaccines, flu vaccine performance has always been judged over a full season. Pfizer’s claim of 95% effectiveness of their vaccine was measured only two months after administration. The trial designs also exhibit numerous manipulations, including the problem that they were selected from healthy young people who are at negligible risk from Covid.

Waning vaccine immunity is a known problem for influenza vaccines and certain studies have shown near zero effectiveness after only three months. In early July, Israel reported that COVID vaccine efficacy against infection and symptomatic disease, “fell to 64%.” By late July it had fallen to 39%. Vaccines are not eligible for approval by the FDA if efficacy is less than 50%.

The story is similar in the US. Recently, the CDC issued a report confirming a decline in vaccine effectiveness observable in their data too. Pfizer initially promised vaccine efficacy for up to six months and the CDC is now recommending a booster shot starting 8 months after the second dose of an mRNA vaccine (either Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna).

Waning immunity and the real life experience of Israel is the fourth elephant in the room. Citizens in most countries are taking the vaccine on the basis that they will be subjected to two shots at most. In fact, countries that mandate COVID-19 vaccines will be committing their populations to vaccination every 6 months. Certain of the risks attached to the vaccines are faced each time they are  administered.


----------



## teuchter (Oct 16, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> All other (non covid) threats do have persistent mitigating measures applied. No one is suggesting removing seatbelts from cars because road traffic deaths have fallen to a non excessive level, are they?


Non excessive? Not sure about that. Why not just ban all non essential use of cars?


----------



## Supine (Oct 16, 2021)

dtb said:


> Israel is experiencing a fourth wave.  It's one of the most vaccinated countries in the world.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Load of bollocks. Improve your sources if you want real knowledge.


----------



## 2hats (Oct 16, 2021)

dtb said:


> Israel is experiencing a fourth wave.


A basic rule of constructing an argument: check dates on, and thus validity of, your sources*.


Do try and keep up at the back.




* Another basic rule: don't use comedy sources.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 16, 2021)

dtb said:


> *Israel is experiencing a fourth wave.  *It's one of the most vaccinated countries in the world.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Oh dear, someone can't count. 



And, your comedy source is also out of date, just look how the cases have been dropping, since the Delta peak over a month ago.

0/10 - must try harder.


----------



## MrCurry (Oct 16, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Non excessive? Not sure about that. Why not just ban all non essential use of cars?


I’m not arguing that road deaths have fallen to a non excessive level. I have that as an example of an argument no one would reasonably make.


----------



## elbows (Oct 16, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> elbows would you have any info on what's after happening in Israel? They were vaccinating to beat the band last heard.


Others have already posted handy graphs about that but I'll add this article too:



> Rather than imposing new lockdown measures, the government bet on a third booster dose of the Pfizer Inc (PFE.N)/BioNTech vaccine for people age 12 and up, mandated face coverings and enforced use of a “Green Pass” - proof of vaccination, recovery from the illness or a negative test for the virus - at restaurants and other venues, even for children.
> 
> Since peaking in early September, daily infections in Israel have fallen more than 80%, with severe cases nearly halved.











						Analysis: With boosters, masks and Green Pass, Israel sees a COVID-19 wave in retreat
					

Four months into one of its worst COVID-19 outbreaks, Israel is seeing a sharp drop in new infections and severe illness, aided by its use of vaccine boosters, vaccine passports and mask mandates, scientists and health officials said.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## dtb (Oct 16, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Oh dear, someone can't count.
> 
> View attachment 292988
> 
> ...



Health Ministry chief: Israel’s 4th COVID wave appears to be coming to an end​








						Health Ministry chief: Israel’s 4th COVID wave appears to be coming to an end
					

Serious cases fall to 607, lowest rate in a month; 78,000 get booster on Thursday, highest figure in weeks; hundreds of police to ensure QR codes scanned in new Green Pass system




					www.timesofisrael.com
				




Israeli scientist’s stark warning to the UK over Covid fourth wave​




__





						Subscribe to read | Financial Times
					

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication




					www.ft.com
				




‘Vaccination blunts, but does not defeat’: exploring Israel’s fourth Covid wave​




__





						Exploring Israel’s fourth Covid wave | The Week UK
					

Two months ago, face masks were consigned to bins. Now the country is in a ‘unique moment of epidemiological doubt’



					www.theweek.co.uk
				




etc...

Didn't have to try very hard to find the above info.


----------



## dtb (Oct 16, 2021)

Supine said:


> Load of bollocks. Improve your sources if you want real knowledge.



What's wrong with the source?


----------



## Supine (Oct 16, 2021)

dtb said:


> What's wrong with the source?



Well, for a start Pandata build their ideas on ‘The Great Barrington Declaration’. Most of their website is fake intellectual word salad tbh.


----------



## teuchter (Oct 17, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> I’m not arguing that road deaths have fallen to a non excessive level. I have that as an example of an argument no one would reasonably make.


Seatbelts aren't analogous with covid restrictions though. There are pretty much no downsides to wearing a seatbelt. A much more effective way to reduce road deaths would be to implement a 10mph speed limit everywhere but people would never accept that because of the restrictions it would put on what they could do.

I think we lifted restrictions too quickly in the UK. I'd still have masks compulsory in many situations for example. However, I also think there's a level of risk at which we choose to just accept it, because it has to be balanced against all of the downsides of Covid related restrictions. People will disagree about where to draw the line of course, but it is completely impractical to say that we should keep restrictions until Covid presents no threat at all.


----------



## elbows (Oct 17, 2021)

teuchter said:


> I think we lifted restrictions too quickly in the UK. I'd still have masks compulsory in many situations for example. However, I also think there's a level of risk at which we choose to just accept it, because it has to be balanced against all of the downsides of Covid related restrictions. People will disagree about where to draw the line of course, but it is completely impractical to say that we should keep restrictions until Covid presents no threat at all.



I tend to go on about that by splitting it into two different things. 

There are my attitudes towards public health, trying to minimise individuals quality of life years lost, how I would ideally like people to think about such things, how well we fund such efforts, trying to avoid huge numbers of long covid cases, etc etc. Ideals, things to strive for, opinions that encourage such goals, vs opinions that I think undermine such goals and enable the sorry status quo, reflecting badly on power, inequality and priorities. 

And then there are the risks which the authorities themselves cannot live with and have to act upon. Which in the case of this pandemic mostly boils down to pressures on hospitals and the rest of the health care system. "People learning to live with Covid" is dressed up in many ways by government and media, but strip away the guff and we are mostly left with a story where actually the authorities calling the shots in many respects, and the bottom line for them is all about the hospitalisations. When they want more economic activity to resume they will try to lead people in one direction, and when things are far too grim on the hospital front our marching orders will be in the other direction. There is much variance in terms of how on board individuals are with that at any particular moment, but so far via factors such as peoples understanding of the gravity of situations, peoples good sense and reason, and stuff like the mood music in the press, the momentum at each moment has tended to end up pointing strongly in the required direction. 

At this stage of the pandemic, in an era of vaccination, things were bound to be more finely balanced and messy by now. In future I dont think there will suddenly come a time where I will abandon my wider attitudes towards public health etc. And my attitude towards personal risk will only shift slowly. But the bulk of my posts involve commentary about what I think will actually happen, and in this pandemic thats has always had government action and hospitalisation figures at its heart, along with peoples willingness to bend in that same direction. People will draw their own threat lines all over the place, but the one the authorities draw in terms of threat to hospitals is the one I pay the most attention to because I think it's its the strongest guide we've got as to future restrictions. And so I remain stuck in the same holding pattern until we all find out whether we'll actually get through this autumn and winter without breaching the levels of hospitalisation the authorities think the system can learn to live with. And should the virus place an ongoing very heavy burden on health systems for many years to come, then learning to live with this virus long term means investing heavily in meaningful increases in health system capacity.


----------



## Aladdin (Oct 17, 2021)

Three ICU beds left in all of Ireland 😳

And it's been a cattle mart in the hospitals since September yet only NOW the government is meeting NPHET on Monday. 
For three months everyone was told "THE VACCINES WILL PROTECT YOU but keep on wearing masks and washing hands and socially distancing"
People didnt heed the small print. It's bollox here now.
I heard a caller into a popular radio programme telling how people made fun of a woman who was wearing a mask in a restaurant. 
Makes me sick that does.

We're nowhere near the end of this pandemic and people need to seriously cop the fuck on. 

Also  ... the truth about schools needs to come out over here. The CO2 monitors are a joke. Many were broken or inferior quality and schools did not get one per class. Three monitors for 30 classrooms is a joke.  The figures in schools are being massaged too. Its as if they want everyone to think covid doesnt really transmit in schools. Well teachers on the ground know that it does.
Schools over here dont have ANY testing going on. If a kid goes home sick its up to parents to decide about getting tested.
There are no ongoing tests in schools.

Why NPHET did not see this coming is beyond me.
A dog with a mallet up its arse would have known...they surely watched how things were panning out elsewhere?

Its really made for a dininished sense of trust in NPHET. Nobody trusts the government but at least we were all believing Dr Tony Holohan when he would come on the news every day.  But that all stopped in the Summer. There were no more NPHET broadcasts. Schools opened. And we were all lied to....


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 17, 2021)

dtb said:


> Health Ministry chief: Israel’s 4th COVID wave appears to be coming to an end​
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Oh fair enough, I did wonder if their first wave number of cases was hidden by lack of testing right at the start, as here, but checked the deaths which were actually very low back in March/April last year, so didn't it seem like a wave to me, but if the Israelis are counting that as their first wave, I'll give you that.

However, none of this equates to what's happening in the UK and your suggestion on another thread that the vaccines are pointless*, our current level of new cases are averaging around 40,000 day, with 120 deaths per day, when we had that number of cases back at the end of Jan., we were seeing around 10 times the number of deaths. Therefore, the vaccines are working well, and with boaster jabs, hopefully the death rate will be kept under control over the coming months.

*


dtb said:


> If cases are such a concern and are rising so rapidly, what was the point of vaccinating everyone?



To which I replied, 'Because, it prevents most people from ending-up in hospital & dying, you shit for brains freak.'


----------



## dtb (Oct 17, 2021)

Supine said:


> Well, for a start Pandata build their ideas on ‘The Great Barrington Declaration’. Most of their website is fake intellectual word salad tbh.



What's your issue with The Great Barrington Declaration?  It's supported by tens of thousands of medical health scientists and practitioners.

Show me something that is fake on the Pandata website.


----------



## Supine (Oct 17, 2021)

dtb said:


> What's your issue with The Great Barrington Declaration?  It's supported by tens of thousands of medical health scientists and practitioners.
> 
> Show me something that is fake on the Pandata website.



Nice trolling. Got nothing better to do?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 17, 2021)

dtb said:


> What's your issue with The Great Barrington Declaration?  It's supported by tens of thousands of medical health scientists and practitioners.



Eat your heart out....





__





						Claim: The Great Barrington Declaration gives a good alternative to lockdown
					






					www.covidfaq.co
				




And, it was actually signed by 'tens of thousands of medical health scientists and practitioners, *and concerned citizens*', it was basically an open online petition, open to anyone in the world to sign, the vast majority were not claiming to be medical health scientists and practitioners, and there's no way of knowing if those that claimed to be medical health scientists and practitioners are real or not.

You can bet your bottom dollar that most of those so-called 'medical practitioners', included all sorts of weirdos, from yoga teachers to crystal healers, etc., etc. 

Even if they are legit, they represent a tiny, tiny fraction of the many millions of medical practitioners across the globe, who were professional enough not to sign any old bullshit, you shit for brains freak.
​


----------



## LDC (Oct 17, 2021)

Stick the fucking idiot on ignore, he's got nothing to post worth engaging with.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 17, 2021)

Supine said:


> Nice trolling. Got nothing better to do?



I am not sure they is trolling, they are showing the classic signs of having fallen down the conspiraloons' rabbit hole.


----------



## Badgers (Oct 17, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> I am not sure they is trolling, they are showing the classic signs of having fallen down the conspiraloons' rabbit hole.


----------



## Chilli.s (Oct 17, 2021)

I just hope they are young enough to learn and change.  And not have kids to inflict their wacky ideas on.

Piss poor trolling if it is that


----------



## elbows (Oct 17, 2021)

Well their attempts to wind up members of this forum over a decade ago werent very impressive either. Dull shit about the loony left on this forum and how he hates Ken Livingstone so much that he'd be happy to vote for Johnson, complaints about people laughing at Johnson falling over in a river, along with various attempts to talk shit about the subject of race in the UK.


----------



## editor (Oct 17, 2021)

dtb said:


> What's your issue with The Great Barrington Declaration?  It's supported by tens of thousands of medical health scientists and practitioners.
> 
> Show me something that is fake on the Pandata website.


You're actually swallowing this bullshit?  Jeez.

But please, no more of this inane bollocks on a science-based thread. Thanks.


Oh and you can educate yourself here 5 failings of the Great Barrington Declaration's dangerous plan for COVID-19 natural herd immunity


----------



## dtb (Oct 17, 2021)

editor said:


> You're actually swallowing this bullshit?  Jeez.
> 
> But please, no more of this inane bollocks on a science-based thread. Thanks.
> 
> ...



A very flimsy dismissal.

*1. It creates a false dichotomy.* The declaration rhetoric offers a false choice between a wholesale return to our pre-pandemic lives (which is objectively dangerous) versus a total lockdown (which no one advocates). Across Canada, schools, daycares and businesses are open and we are providing health care for patients who suffer from non-COVID-19 diseases.

People are advocating a total lockdown.  This has happened in multiple countries and in some it still continues.
The NHS now has a massive backlog of patients.  Many are still can't get appointments with their GP because Covid has been prioritised over every other illness.

*2. The Barrington declaration gives oxygen to fringe groups.*

What's wrong with allowing people to voice other opinions?  Science is not a constitution, if evolves over time and should be debated.

*3. The Barrington declaration puts individual preference far above public good.* The declaration advocates that, “individual people, based upon their own perception of their risk of dying from COVID-19 and other personal circumstances, personally choose the risks, activities and restrictions they prefer.”

Yep.  Freedom of choice.

*4. The declaration misunderstands herd immunity.* Herd immunity occurs when a large enough proportion of the population has immunity, usually more than 70 per cent.

It does not misunderstand it.  Natural immunity is not taken into account.  The government should be testing everyone for antibodies.
Why is natural immunity such a taboo subject?

*5. The declaration offers no details on how it would protect the vulnerable.*

It does.  Shield those that are most at risk.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 17, 2021)

dtb said:


> A very flimsy dismissal.
> 
> *1. It creates a false dichotomy.* The declaration rhetoric offers a false choice between a wholesale return to our pre-pandemic lives (which is objectively dangerous) versus a total lockdown (which no one advocates). Across Canada, schools, daycares and businesses are open and we are providing health care for patients who suffer from non-COVID-19 diseases.
> 
> ...



Once again - read & understand - Claim: The Great Barrington Declaration gives a good alternative to lockdown


----------



## dtb (Oct 18, 2021)

I stopped reading after the first point since it's so obviously incorrect:

1) We have vaccines now. The Great Barrington Declaration was misconceived right from the beginning, for reasons we'll discuss below. But now that we have very effective vaccines, the case for "natural herd immunity"—that is, letting the virus burn through certain parts of the population—is weaker than ever. There is now an end in sight, and a great many people now have the possibility to never get the virus in the first place.

The injections do not prevent transmission, illness or death in all cases.  Double jabbed people are still catching Covid, getting seriously ill and dying.
Reaching herd immunity through injecting people isn't working out very well for Israel is it?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 18, 2021)

dtb said:


> The injections do not prevent transmission, illness or death in all cases.  Double jabbed people are still catching Covid, getting seriously ill and dying.



It has never been claimed they will prevent all transmission, illness or deaths, just substantially reduce the risks.

If you think otherwise, perhaps you can explain that with an average 40k cases a day in the UK now, there's an average of 120 deaths per day, whereas with the same level of cases back in January we were seeing around 1,200 deaths per day. In case your maths is not very good, that's a massive reduction of 90%.



> Reaching herd immunity through injecting people isn't working out very well for Israel is it?



From a peak of 60 deaths a day back in January, during a lockdown, they are down to 9 a day now, with almost all restrictions lifted, it would seem to be working.


----------



## elbows (Oct 18, 2021)




----------



## dtb (Oct 18, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> It has never been claimed they will prevent all transmission, illness or deaths, just substantially reduce the risks.
> 
> If you think otherwise, perhaps you can explain that with an average 40k cases a day in the UK now, there's an average of 120 deaths per day, whereas with the same level of cases back in January we were seeing around 1,200 deaths per day. In case your maths is not very good, that's a massive reduction of 90%.
> 
> ...



A couple of issues with the above argument.

1 - There are fewer vulnerable people now than before as many died this past winter.  We had a few warm winters proceeding the first wave in Feb 20 which meant an excess of those at risk, hence the high death rate.
It's called 'harvesting'.

2 - You're not comparing like against like.  Jan vs Oct is not a fair comparison.
Respiratory illnesses are much more common, transmissable and deadly during winter months.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 18, 2021)

dtb said:


> A couple of issues with the above argument.
> 
> 1 - There are fewer vulnerable people now than before as many died this past winter.  We had a few warm winters proceeding the first wave in Feb 20 which meant an excess of those at risk, hence the high death rate.
> It's called 'harvesting'.
> ...



1 - There're 2,240,850 patients on the Shielded List, so plenty of vulnerable people for covid to take, lucky most are vaccinated now.

2 - I am not talking about general respiratory illnesses, but specific covid cases & deaths.  

And, you can fuck right off with your 'harvesting' nonsense, which is deeply offensive to those of us that have lost family & friends to this shitty virus. 

I think it's about time you are banned from pushing your brainless conspiracy nonsense on here, you complete cunt.


----------



## editor (Oct 18, 2021)

dtb said:


> A couple of issues with the above argument.
> 
> 1 - There are fewer vulnerable people now than before as many died this past winter.  We had a few warm winters proceeding the first wave in Feb 20 which meant an excess of those at risk, hence the high death rate.
> It's called 'harvesting'.
> ...


"Harvesting"? REALLY? 
Get the fuck off this thread now.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 18, 2021)

elbows said:


> Well their attempts to wind up members of this forum over a decade ago werent very impressive either. Dull shit about the loony left on this forum and how he hates Ken Livingstone so much that he'd be happy to vote for Johnson, complaints about people laughing at Johnson falling over in a river, along with various attempts to talk shit about the subject of race in the UK.





editor said:


> "Harvesting"? REALLY?
> Get the fuck off this thread now.



Just this thread, why not all covid threads* at least, or even the site, considering what elbows unearthed about their posting history? 

* They are also fucking up the covid chat thread.


----------



## Chilli.s (Oct 18, 2021)

dtb said:


> A couple of issues with the above argument.
> 
> 1 - There are fewer vulnerable people now than before as many died this past winter.  We had a few warm winters proceeding the first wave in Feb 20 which meant an excess of those at risk, hence the high death rate.
> It's called 'harvesting'.
> ...


fuck off you dunce


----------



## dtb (Oct 19, 2021)

editor said:


> "Harvesting"? REALLY?
> Get the fuck off this thread now.



It's a scientific term.









						'Harvesting' is a terrible word – but it's what has happened in Britain's care homes | Richard Coker
					

Epidemiologists use the term to describe tragic excess deaths – but for Covid-19 it seems to be the de facto government policy, says professor of public health Richard Coker




					www.theguardian.com
				




There’s a term we use in epidemiology to capture the essence of increases in deaths, or excess mortality, above and beyond normal expectations: “harvesting”.


----------



## dtb (Oct 19, 2021)

Chilli.s said:


> fuck off you dunce



Hominem attack.

(Attacking the person): This fallacy occurs when, instead of addressing someone's argument or position, *you irrelevantly attack the person or some aspect of the person who is making the argument*.

How about making a useful contribution to the debate?


----------



## dtb (Oct 19, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> 1 - There're 2,240,850 patients on the Shielded List, so plenty of vulnerable people for covid to take, lucky most are vaccinated now.
> 
> 2 - I am not talking about general respiratory illnesses, but specific covid cases & deaths.
> 
> ...



1 - But still far fewer vulnerable people than before.
2 - Your point makes no sense.  You have to compare like against like time periods for a fair comparison.

A third factor to take into consdieration:

3 - Treatment protocol has evolved since March 2020.  Patients are more likely to survive due to better knowledge about how to treat the disease once hospitalised.

Attacking me and not the argument just demonstrates that you're unable to engage in any intelligent discussion.  Embarrassing.


----------



## Flavour (Oct 19, 2021)

fuck off loon


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 19, 2021)

dtb said:


> 1 - But still far fewer vulnerable people than before.


A tiny, tiny number of fewer vulnerable people, not enough to explain what is going on now.



> 2 - Your point makes no sense. You have to compare like against like time periods for a fair comparison.



Don't be daft, comparing similar number of cases. around 40k a day, with the number deaths being down around 90% is a fair comparison, it makes no different to the time of year.   



> 3 - Treatment protocol has evolved since March 2020. Patients are more likely to survive due to better knowledge about how to treat the disease once hospitalised.



Well that is true, so let's take a look at the number of people in hospital back in Jan. to now, with similar number of daily cases being reported. Although I'll be generous for illustration purposes, by taking the end of Jan. figure, allowing a 2 week lag between testing positive and ending-up in hospital, by which time daily cases had dropped to less than half of what we have ATM, around 15k to 40k a day, because LOCKDOWN WAS FUCKING WORKING!

So, in Jan. around 32,500, now around 7,000 - that's around 25,500 or 80% less patients in hospital, so why?



Spoiler: CLUE



*IT'S MAINLY DUE TO THE FUCKING VACCINES FUCKING WORKING BY FUCKING REDUCING FUCKING HOSPITAL FUCKING ADMISSIONS, YOU FUCKING LOON!*


----------



## _Russ_ (Oct 19, 2021)

Try not to engage, its a common tactic of Trolls to blast in with utter crap designed to provoke and then revert to seemingly reasonable points that don't actually address the shit they posted to start the ball rolling


----------



## klang (Oct 19, 2021)

I have a feeling they are not trolling


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 19, 2021)

klang said:


> I have a feeling they are not trolling



Same here, they are showing classic signs of having gone down the conspiraloons rabbit hole.


----------



## klang (Oct 19, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Same here, they are showing classic signs of having gone down the conspiraloons rabbit hole.


I know some people who argue bang the same.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 19, 2021)

klang said:


> I know some people who argue bang the same.



Trouble is they think they've done their own research, but...


----------



## Badgers (Oct 20, 2021)

Fingers crossed  









						Charge Bolsonaro with murder over Covid toll, draft Brazil senate report says
					

Draft text says neglect, incompetence and opposition to science fueled ‘stratospheric’ death toll




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Chairman Meow (Oct 20, 2021)

WA is bringing in mandatory vaccinations for up to 75% of the work force. The State Premier wants to get the vaccination rate over 90% before opening the WA border as having had practically zero covid here, we all know the hospitals aren't up to coping with a lot of sick people. I am all in favour, I'm already jabbed as are most people I know.


----------



## Badgers (Oct 20, 2021)

Good news


----------



## gentlegreen (Oct 20, 2021)

https://www.thelocal.de/20211015/supermarkets-in-german-state-of-hesse-can-now-block-entry-to-the-unvaccinated/


----------



## Flavour (Oct 20, 2021)

meanwhile in the US over 1000 dying a day -- still! -- and it feels like everyone's just completely given up


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Oct 21, 2021)

We were comparing the numbers of deaths in the countries represented in our team at work - as bad as the UK is doing, it's dwarfed by the current mess in Eastern Europe...


----------



## elbows (Oct 21, 2021)

And it leads to stories like this one in our press today:









						Latvia is first country to reimpose lockdown in Europe’s new Covid wave
					

Baltic state once seen as coronavirus success story announces month of restrictions including curfew




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## 8ball (Oct 21, 2021)

dtb said:


> It's a scientific term.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



"Mortality displacement" may have got a better reaction.  Is a little more commonly used ime too, but I'm not an epidemiologist.


----------



## little_legs (Oct 21, 2021)

Lockdown in Russia from October 30th until November 7th is now official. Some regions have been authorised to commence the lockdown from October 23. The government is expecting even higher death rate than last winter.


----------



## 8ball (Oct 21, 2021)

little_legs said:


> Lockdown in Russia from October 30th until November 7th is now official. Some regions have been authorised to commence the lockdown from October 23. The government is expecting even higher death rate than last winter.


How is their vaccination effort coming along?


----------



## little_legs (Oct 21, 2021)

8ball said:


> How is their vaccination effort coming along?


The news says 43-46%. The government had hoped that it be 80% by October. 

There is very low vaccine uptake among the general population. People’s unwillingness to vaccinate is based on their lack of trust in the government, fatalism, protest, and general dumbness.


----------



## 8ball (Oct 21, 2021)

little_legs said:


> The news says 43-46%. The government had hoped that it be 80% by October.
> 
> There is very low vaccine uptake among the general population. People’s unwillingness to vaccinate is based on their lack of trust in the government, fatalism, protest, and general dumbness.



The first two reasons are more than understandable for any Russian.


----------



## elbows (Oct 21, 2021)

> Covid has severely affected healthcare staff and may have killed between 80,000 and 180,000, the World Health Organization (WHO) says.
> 
> Healthcare workers must be prioritised for vaccines, WHO head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, and he criticised unfairness in the distribution of jabs.
> 
> ...











						Covid: Virus may have killed 80k-180k health workers, WHO says
					

The global health body says healthcare workers should be prioritised for vaccination.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Supine (Oct 21, 2021)

elbows said:


> Covid: Virus may have killed 80k-180k health workers, WHO says
> 
> 
> The global health body says healthcare workers should be prioritised for vaccination.
> ...



As the article says, only 10% of African healthcare workers have had a shot. While the west are giving boosters for comparatively marginal gains. Shameful.


----------



## 8ball (Oct 21, 2021)

Supine said:


> As the article says, only 10% of African healthcare workers have had a shot. While the west are giving boosters for comparatively marginal gains. Shameful.



Have to agree here.  Wish there was a way to donate my booster.


----------



## _Russ_ (Oct 22, 2021)

Theres a danger here of ignoring the fact that for multiple reasons some countries in Africa and elsewhere have problems of infrastructure and vaccine reluctance that has resulted in huge amounts of wasted Vaccine.
This feeds back to contributing countries ... its not _all_ our fault


----------



## dtb (Oct 22, 2021)

Singapore extends restrictions after reporting highest single-day Covid-19 deaths​








						Singapore extends restrictions after reporting highest single-day Covid-19 deaths
					

Singapore will extend its Covid-19 restrictions for another month after the city-state reported 18 new deaths from the disease on Wednesday, its highest number of the pandemic.




					edition.cnn.com
				




Singapore = one of the highest vaccination rates in the world.


----------



## Chilli.s (Oct 22, 2021)

dtb said:


> ​
> Singapore = one of the highest vaccination rates in the world.


So what are you saying?  Vaccines don't work?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 22, 2021)

Chilli.s said:


> So what are you saying?  Vaccines don't work?



It's like the infinite monkey theorem, one day they will type a post that actually makes a logical point, in theory.


----------



## Yossarian (Oct 22, 2021)

More people have died from COVID in Singapore in October than in the previous 18 months put together, three-quarters of them unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated - the unvaccinated have been hit hard by the loosening of mitigation measures.

_"When the Delta variant first reached Singapore, our case numbers were still quite low as we had more aggressive contact tracing and quarantining measures and were actively trying to slow down spread to buy time to get people vaccinated," said Associate Professor Alex Cook, vice-dean of research at the National University of Singapore's Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health.

However, we've now reduced the effort to prevent transmission, such as by making quarantine and isolation less onerous. This is due to our high vaccination rates, which have made Covid-19 become a much milder disease for most of us. But this would mean a deadlier pandemic for the unvaccinated.









						More Covid-19 patients in Singapore reported to have died in October than 18 months prior
					

It is an indication of the virulent nature of the Delta strain and its impact on the unvaccinated here.. Read more at straitstimes.com.




					www.straitstimes.com
				



_
With the recent surge in deaths, the COVID death rate in Singapore currently stands at 4.63 per 100,000 people, compared to 208.64 for the UK.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 22, 2021)

More from that link -



> The Guardian in September reported that while 80 per cent of the adult population in Britain are fully vaccinated, *there has been an uptick in unvaccinated people ending up in hospital.*
> 
> Dr David Windsor, a critical care consultant in south-west England told The Guardian: *"What we are seeing right now is a large number of unvaccinated people coming into hospital - far more than we would expect."
> 
> In the United States, the estimate is that between 98 per cent and 99 per cent of Americans dying of Covid-19 complications are unvaccinated.*


----------



## Chilli.s (Oct 22, 2021)

So Singapore has an extremely low death rate compared to just about anyware


----------



## Supine (Oct 22, 2021)

_Russ_ said:


> and vaccine reluctance that has resulted in huge amounts of wasted Vaccine.
> This feeds back to contributing countries ... its not _all_ our fault



Got any evidence for that?


----------



## Sue (Oct 22, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> More people have died from COVID in Singapore in October than in the previous 18 months put together, three-quarters of them unvaccinated or only partially vaccinated - the unvaccinated have been hit hard by the loosening of mitigation measures.
> 
> _"When the Delta variant first reached Singapore, our case numbers were still quite low as we had more aggressive contact tracing and quarantining measures and were actively trying to slow down spread to buy time to get people vaccinated," said Associate Professor Alex Cook, vice-dean of research at the National University of Singapore's Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health.
> 
> ...


Damn you and your FACTS. 😡


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 22, 2021)

Supine said:


> Got any evidence for that?



There's certainly been reports of vaccines going to waste in poorer countries, there're several examples in this article -









						Covid-19 vaccines: Why some African states can't use their vaccines
					

African countries have struggled to get vaccines, but some are now throwing away thousands of doses.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




But, the numbers are tiny compared to what could start unfolding in the west soon -









						Covid vaccine stockpiles: Could 241m doses go to waste?
					

Joe Biden wants more global vaccine equality but the US and other nations have not backed promises with action.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




The interesting take-away from that last article, is that even after booster jabs being rolled out, there's still a massive stockpile in the west, and hundred of millions could go to waste.   



> The world's richest countries could have 1.2bn doses that they don't need - even if they start administering boosters.
> 
> A fifth of those doses - 241 million vaccines - could be at risk of going to waste if they are not donated very soon, says Dr Linley. It's likely that poorer countries won't be able to accept vaccines unless they have at least two months left before they expire.
> 
> "I don't think it was necessarily rich countries being greedy, it's more that they didn't know which vaccines would work," says Dr Linley. "So they had to purchase several of them."


----------



## _Russ_ (Oct 22, 2021)

Supine said:


> Got any evidence for that?


Oh, Fuck off and go read for yourself


----------



## Supine (Oct 22, 2021)

_Russ_ said:


> Oh, Fuck off and go read for yourself



You are a prick aren’t you


----------



## StoneRoad (Oct 22, 2021)

_Russ_ said:


> Theres a danger here of ignoring the fact that for multiple reasons some countries in Africa and elsewhere have problems of infrastructure and vaccine reluctance that has resulted in huge amounts of wasted Vaccine.
> This feeds back to contributing countries ... its not _all_ our fault



link, please.

You have stated something [wasted vaxx] as a fact, please provide evidence.


----------



## elbows (Oct 22, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> More from that link -
> 
> The Guardian in September reported that while 80 per cent of the adult population in Britain are fully vaccinated, there has been an uptick in unvaccinated people ending up in hospital.
> 
> ...



I still tend to think that at best such words are out of date or dont provide the reader with enough info to judge what sort of numbers are 'what we would expect' in England/the UK.

For example using data I drew attention to here: General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat .........

In a recent 3 week period 2535 hospitalised cases were unvaccinated, of which 560 were under 18. And 4486 were double jabbed. And when it came to deaths within 28 days, 502 were unvaccinated and 2136 were double jabbed. Given what we know about how many have been vaccinated, and the levels of resulting protection we can expect as a result, I'm really not convinced these numbers are not what we would expect. Especially if we factor in the idea that the unvaccinated may be more likely to let their pandemic guard down in other ways. And we should not forget those vulnerable peole who cannot get vaccinated for health reasons, and the vaccinated vulnerable who arent expected to get the same level of protection from the vaccines as others get.

I keep going on about that because I dont feel like this story is properly told in the media very often. One reason for that is that a lot of communications are quite understandably focussing on trying to get more people to get vaccinated, so they draw attention to the number of unvaccinated individuals having severe health problems, at the expense of properly pointing out how many double jabbed people end up in the same situation. I'm going to keep trying to make people aware of the more complex reality for all sorts of reasons. Very much including my disdain for media that wants to frame these stories as just being all about vaccine uptake successes and failures, rather than terrible failures that come from authorities around the world relying too heavily on vaccines alone and inappropriately diminishing other rules and encouraging inappropriate behaviours.


----------



## _Russ_ (Oct 22, 2021)

StoneRoad said:


> link, please.
> 
> You have stated something [wasted vaxx] as a fact, please provide evidence.


Seriously?, first one to come up on a simple fucking search...https://www.bbc.com/news/56940657


----------



## LDC (Oct 22, 2021)

dtb said:


> Singapore extends restrictions after reporting highest single-day Covid-19 deaths​
> 
> 
> 
> ...



You know every time you post you're just making yourself look ever more fucking stupid?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 22, 2021)

_Russ_ said:


> Seriously?, first one to come up on a simple fucking search...https://www.bbc.com/news/56940657



The one I posted just above, makes me wonder if StoneRoad has me on ignore.


----------



## dtb (Oct 24, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> You know every time you post you're just making yourself look ever more fucking stupid?



Why?

What is it about the fact that one of the most vaccinated countries in the world is experiencing a surge in deaths that you cannot comprehend?
It's you that sounds completely deluded and brainwashed.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 24, 2021)

dtb said:


> Why?
> 
> What is it about the fact that one of the most vaccinated countries in the world is experiencing a surge in deaths that you cannot comprehend?
> It's you that sounds completely deluded and brainwashed.



Urban has remained fairly loon free from the start of covid, making it a sane and safe place to discuss the subject, I don't understand why this one has been allowed to stay, posting nothing but nonsense on the subject for the last 6 months or so. 

They never really engage with replies that put them straight, instead they just post up more slightly different shite, typical behaviour of a deluded conspiraloon. 

FFS, they were told to fuck off this thread by the editor, and yet they are still here, why?


----------



## Supine (Oct 24, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> The one I posted just above, makes me wonder if StoneRoad has me on ignore.



I don’t have you in ignore & I read your link


----------



## StoneRoad (Oct 24, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> The one I posted just above, makes me wonder if StoneRoad has me on ignore.


No, I don't. It wasn't you that I wanted to provide evidence for their allegations / assertions.


----------



## editor (Oct 24, 2021)

dtb said:


> Why?
> 
> What is it about the fact that one of the most vaccinated countries in the world is experiencing a surge in deaths that you cannot comprehend?
> It's you that sounds completely deluded and brainwashed.



And on that abusive, conspiracy-wibbling note, your time on this thread is over.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Oct 24, 2021)

editor said:


> And on that abusive, conspiracy-wibbling note, your time on this thread is over.



They have been trashing the 'General Coronavirus (COVID-19) chat' thread too, can they be banned from that as well?

Actually. ideally the whole covid forum, except perhaps the 'Discussion: UK anti-vaxx 'freedom' morons, protests and QAnon idiots' thread.


----------



## two sheds (Oct 24, 2021)

I agree with this although that thread really is supposed to be _about_ them rather than _for _them.


----------



## Chilli.s (Oct 24, 2021)

dtb said:


> What is it about the fact that one of the most vaccinated countries in the world is experiencing a surge in deaths that you cannot comprehend?


Because the very effective but not perfect vaccine does not completely stop a global pandemic. But, as you must have read, their death rate is tiny, even with a surge as you put it. They are a fantastic success compared to the uk.


----------



## Badgers (Oct 28, 2021)

India: over 100 million people fail to turn up for second Covid vaccine
					

Fears rise of a resurgence in the spread of coronavirus despite daily cases reaching their lowest for months




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Supine (Oct 29, 2021)

Important article. Worth reading. 









						COVID-19 rarely spreads through surfaces. So why are we still deep cleaning?
					

The coronavirus behind the pandemic can linger on doorknobs and other surfaces, but these aren’t a major source of infection.




					www.nature.com


----------



## Yossarian (Oct 29, 2021)

Supine said:


> Important article. Worth reading.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



_"But it’s easier to clean surfaces than improve ventilation — especially in the winter — and consumers have come to expect disinfection protocols."_

Yep - while studies have shown transmission via surfaces is theoretically possible, I'm not sure if there's been a single confirmed case of it actually happening.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 29, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> _"But it’s easier to clean surfaces than improve ventilation — especially in the winter — and consumers have come to expect disinfection protocols."_
> 
> Yep - while studies have shown transmission via surfaces is theoretically possible, I'm not sure if there's been a single confirmed case of it actually happening.


True, but it will help with some other pathogen transmission.
Mostly it is down to "the theater" now, but from my observations it will also make some vulnerable people feel more confident/less worried in shared spaces, as long as the airborne transmission message gets passed on too it can't hurt.


----------



## Yossarian (Oct 29, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> True, but it will help with some other pathogen transmission.
> Mostly it is down to "the theater" now, but from my observations it will also make some vulnerable people feel more confident/less worried in shared spaces, as long as the airborne transmission message gets passed on too it can't hurt.



Yeah, while hand-washing etc. apparently not going to protect anybody against COVID, I don't think any public health figure is going to want to come out and say "It's OK everybody, you can stop washing your hands!"

I just hope they stress that ventilation should be by far the most important priority so nobody thinks that poor ventilation, distancing etc. can be partially compensated for by very thorough hand-washing and surface cleaning.


----------



## teuchter (Nov 1, 2021)

I see that Singapore's case rate and death rate now very closely match the UK's.




The Singapore govt seems to be saying that they should expect about 2,000 Covid deaths per year in the long term. If I have my sums right, the UK equivalent would be about 20,000 per year.


----------



## _Russ_ (Nov 1, 2021)

Hmm so like 400 a week of mostly old or otherwise unproductive strains on the Economy, yep that'll make balancing the books a bit easier for our chums beside the Thames....luvvly jubbly


----------



## spring-peeper (Nov 1, 2021)




----------



## 2hats (Nov 2, 2021)

2hats said:


> Animal reservoirs.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Further work on this points to repeated reverse zoonosis (zooanthroponosis), with obvious inferences for endemic/enzootic progression.



			
				Preprint abstract said:
			
		

> White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the predominant cervid in North America, are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and experimentally infected fawns transmit the virus to other captive deer. To test the hypothesis that SARS-CoV-2 may be circulating in deer, we evaluated 283 samples collected from 151 free-living and 132 captive deer in Iowa from April through December 2020 for the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. 33.2% were positive. Notably, between Nov 23, 2020, and January 10, 2021, 82.5% had detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA.
> 
> Whole genome sequencing of the positive samples identified 12 SARS-CoV-2 lineages, with B.1.2, and B.1.311 accounting for ~75% of all samples. The geographic distribution and nesting of clusters of deer and human lineages strongly suggest multiple zooanthroponotic spillover events and deer-to-deer transmission. The discovery of sylvatic and enzootic SARS-CoV-2 transmission in deer has important implications for the ecology and long-term persistence, as well as the potential for spillover to other animals and spillback into humans.



DOI: 10.1101/2021.10.31.466677v1.


----------



## Yossarian (Nov 2, 2021)

spring-peeper said:


> View attachment 295184



But 15% of the NYPD, around 5,000 cops, are still unvaccinated - we might see many more placed on leave when the city gets around to evaluating the thousands of requests for medical or religious exemptions.

With the FDNY, more than 2,300 firefighters called in sick Monday, the first day of the mandate, compared to between 800 and 1,000 on a normal day.


----------



## spring-peeper (Nov 2, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> But 15% of the NYPD, around 5,000 cops, are still unvaccinated - we might see many more placed on leave when the city gets around to evaluating the thousands of requests for medical or religious exemptions.
> 
> With the FDNY, more than 2,300 firefighters called in sick Monday, the first day of the mandate, compared to between 800 and 1,000 on a normal day.




Yip - been reading about the protests that seem to be erupting throughout the States.

The creators of the meme must have put a lot of work in on finding a low number.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Nov 2, 2021)

spring-peeper said:


> Yip - been reading about the protests that seem to be erupting throughout the States.
> 
> The creators of the meme must have put a lot of work in on finding a low number.


The protest will more than likely die down though like they have elsewhere.


----------



## zora (Nov 4, 2021)

Woah, Germany now gone up to 35000 daily cases (from around 4000-8000 a month or two ago iirc).

Just glad that my dad got his booster yesterday; mum getting hers this week as well I think. 

Need to check with my brother who had the one-shot Johnson/Janssen which I think is being shown to benefit from a booster.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Nov 4, 2021)

zora said:


> Woah, Germany now gone up to 35000 daily cases (from around 4000-8000 a month or two ago iirc).



Their daily average is still under 20k, although that's around double in 2 weeks, early Sept. around 8k, early/mid Oct. 10k. 









						Germany COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Germany Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info


----------



## Sue (Nov 4, 2021)

zora said:


> Woah, Germany now gone up to 35000 daily cases (from around 4000-8000 a month or two ago iirc).
> 
> Just glad that my dad got his booster yesterday; mum getting hers this week as well I think.
> 
> Need to check with my brother who had the one-shot Johnson/Janssen which I think is being shown to benefit from a booster.


My company's HQ is in Germany and a thing went out this morning about the company tightening up Covid measures (and they're already pretty tight tbh). My colleague who's in Munich was saying his kids (primary/nursery age) are having daily tests.


----------



## MrCurry (Nov 4, 2021)

Sue said:


> My company's HQ is in Germany and a thing went out this morning about the company tightening up Covid measures (and they're already pretty tight tbh). My colleague who's in Munich was saying his kids (primary/nursery age) are having daily tests.


Wow… that’s not very fair on the kids


----------



## teuchter (Nov 4, 2021)

zora said:


> Woah, Germany now gone up to 35000 daily cases (from around 4000-8000 a month or two ago iirc).
> 
> Just glad that my dad got his booster yesterday; mum getting hers this week as well I think.
> 
> Need to check with my brother who had the one-shot Johnson/Janssen which I think is being shown to benefit from a booster.


Not just Germany -


----------



## Supine (Nov 4, 2021)

Winter is coming…


----------



## spring-peeper (Nov 4, 2021)

Supine said:


> Winter is coming…


----------



## Idaho (Nov 4, 2021)

teuchter said:


> Not just Germany -
> 
> View attachment 295445


Why is the Netherlands getting monthly surges all year?


----------



## elbows (Nov 4, 2021)

Idaho said:


> Why is the Netherlands getting monthly surges all year?


Some sort of data issue with that source.

Graphs on this page if you scroll down a bit dont display that phenomenon.





__





						Confirmed cases | Coronavirus Dashboard | Government.nl
					

National overview of confirmed cases in inhabitants with coronavirus.




					coronadashboard.government.nl


----------



## Idaho (Nov 4, 2021)

elbows said:


> Some sort of data issue with that source.
> 
> Graphs on this page if you scroll down a bit dont display that phenomenon.
> 
> ...


Yeah I did think it looked like a methodological issue.


----------



## elbows (Nov 4, 2021)

From the genetic risk department comes something substantial:









						High-risk Covid gene more common in South Asians
					

About 60% of people from South Asian backgrounds carry a gene that puts them at higher risk.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> *University of Oxford scientists have uncovered a gene that doubles the risk of lung failure and death from Covid.*
> 
> They say 60% of people from South Asian backgrounds and 15% of people of European ancestry carry the high-risk version of the gene.





> The Nature Genetics study sheds light on why some communities in the UK and South Asia are at higher risk from Covid - but does not fully explain it.
> 
> Building on previous genetic work, researchers used a combination of artificial intelligence and new molecular technology to pinpoint the exact gene - called LZTF1 - responsible for the increased risks.
> 
> They estimate the risky version of the gene is present in about 2% of people from African-Caribbean backgrounds and 1.8% of people of East Asian decent.





> When cells lining the lung interact with coronavirus, one of their defence strategies is to turn into less specialised cells and become less welcoming to the virus.
> 
> This despecialisation process reduces the amount on the surface of cells of a key protein called ACE-2, which is key to coronavirus attaching itself to cells.
> 
> But for people with the risky version of the LZTFL1 gene this process does not work as well, and lung cells are left vulnerable to invasion of the virus.


----------



## Chairman Meow (Nov 5, 2021)

After an embarrassingly slow start to  the vaccine rollout, Australians are picking up the pace pretty well.









						Tracking the vaccine: One in three Australians boosted with three doses
					

With children aged 5-11 joining the rollout on January 10, just over 94 per cent of the total population are now eligible for vaccination against COVID-19.




					www.abc.net.au
				




The Premier of WA announced today that the state border will re-open when we reach 90% double vaxxed, which is predicted to be early Feb. I think then we have to go back to wearing masks in crowds and public transport. Its going to be a bit of an adjustment to going from zero restrictions (except travel) and zero locally transmitted cases ( we have had 9 deaths in total), but it needs to be done. I am hoping by next (Northern hemisphere) summer I will be able to come back to the UK and see my mum again, I haven't seen her since 2017.


----------



## Yossarian (Nov 5, 2021)

Pfizer COVID pill sounds very promising - company says risk of hospitalisation or death was reduced by 89% when the pill was taken within three days of the onset of symptoms in a trial involving high-risk unvaccinated patients with other health issues.









						Covid: Pfizer says antiviral pill 89% effective in high-risk cases
					

The company stopped clinical trials early because initial results for the drug were so positive.



					www.bbc.com
				




I wonder how many of the people who rejected the Pfizer vaccine will be demanding a Pfizer pill when symptoms kick in.


----------



## Sunray (Nov 6, 2021)

Everyone has been going on how we should help out with vaccinations on a global scale.  I thought it was going terribly. But actually its not too bad.

7.23 Billion vaccinations administered globally. Not perfect but its coming along.  Central Africa is a problem as people are often hard to reach.  









						More Than 10.2 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker
					

Bloomberg counted up the shots administered in 184 countries and 59 U.S. states and territories




					www.bloomberg.com


----------



## Sunray (Nov 6, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> Pfizer COVID pill sounds very promising - company says risk of hospitalisation or death was reduced by 89% when the pill was taken within three days of the onset of symptoms in a trial involving high-risk unvaccinated patients with other health issues.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



This does look impressive if further trials show the same results, this would end COVID pressure on health services.

E2A: I've been reading more and then this 

Dr John Cambell doing his thing

If what Pfizer are saying works out in practice, the Coronavirus pandemic will be behind us. Did anyone expect this to happen so soon. I was resigned for it to rumble on for a while longer.
Plus it might work on a all coronaviruses such as the common cold.


----------



## MrCurry (Nov 9, 2021)

Singapore moves to have the unvaccinated bear the cost of their covid related healthcare. Might be a powerful incentive for many who have not yet had their jabs. 









						Singapore to start charging Covid patients who are ‘unvaccinated by choice’
					

Authorities say unvaccinated people make up a ‘sizeable majority’ of those needing the most intensive care




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## weltweit (Nov 9, 2021)

It seems there are many ways to skin a cat.


----------



## two sheds (Nov 9, 2021)

'unvaccinated by choice' is an apt choice of words


----------



## ice-is-forming (Nov 10, 2021)

I had my vaccinations in May, when I was first allowed here in Qld. But all my work colleagues have turned into anti vaxxers!! Well tbh I'm not sure if they're anti Vax or if possibly this is the first time people not already marginalised have been told that they have to do something, and it's turned Queensland into an oppositionally defiant state! 

Yesterday the government passed a law saying 
Which is bad enough if you're not vaccinated. And obviously it then stands that if you work in those industries you must be vaccinated. 

Then today it's been mandated that all community / health workers must be fully vaccinated by Dec 15th. And we're classed as health workers. 

We reopen our borders on Dec 17th. So far since covid began we've had 7 deaths, right at the start. I think it's weird that people are having to be cohersed to be vaccinated, it feels like a first world problem, tbf I'm not sure how many Queenslanders ever  look at life outside this sunshine state. Plus our state cabinet have kept Qld very safe and I want to trust them.  But I'm a bit concerned about the erosion of human rights. I'm confused. 

So... How long will they fight it, and how many of them will leave. To be continued.


----------



## _Russ_ (Nov 10, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> I had my vaccinations in May, when I was first allowed here in Qld. But all my work colleagues have turned into anti vaxxers!! Well tbh I'm not sure if they're anti Vax or if possibly this is the first time people not already marginalised have been told that they have to do something, and it's turned Queensland into an oppositionally defiant state!
> 
> Yesterday the government passed a law saying View attachment 296209
> Which is bad enough if you're not vaccinated. And obviously it then stands that if you work in those industries you must be vaccinated.
> ...


I wish we had your government, good luck when you open up to the world including us lot on plague Island


----------



## Numbers (Nov 10, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> I had my vaccinations in May, when I was first allowed here in Qld. But all my work colleagues have turned into anti vaxxers!! Well tbh I'm not sure if they're anti Vax or if possibly this is the first time people not already marginalised have been told that they have to do something, and it's turned Queensland into an oppositionally defiant state!
> 
> Yesterday the government passed a law saying View attachment 296209
> Which is bad enough if you're not vaccinated. And obviously it then stands that if you work in those industries you must be vaccinated.
> ...


We’re currently running at more than 7 deaths an hour.


----------



## glitch hiker (Nov 10, 2021)

local hostipals have declared, due to capacity, a state of emergency and are warning people not to come to AnE except in case of...well emergency!

I notice Dr John Campbell, the covid medical youtuber, has jumped on the Ivermectin train. To be fair to him, he presents his case in a reasonable way, citing studies etc. Unfortunately for everyone else he's clearly naive to the fact his audience are now the Pro Ivermectin conspiracy crowd who, even if Ivermectin does prove efficacious (hasn't so far), will drown out the good work he's done so far. He's now quoted by many other loons on Youtube such as Jimmy Dore, the american antivax peddling liar (and friend to Joe Rogan, the internet's most credulous shit stirrer)


----------



## elbows (Nov 10, 2021)

Germany in the shit again but I've not looked at their data myself at all recently.



			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59234443
		




> *One of Germany's top virologists has warned that a further 100,000 people will die from Covid if nothing's done to halt an aggressive fourth wave. Case numbers have soared and Germany on Wednesday registered its highest rate of infection since the pandemic began, with almost 40,000 cases in a day. *
> 
> "We have to act right now," said Christian Drosten, who described a real emergency situation.
> 
> Doctors in the intensive care Covid ward at Leipzig University Hospital warn this fourth wave could be the worst yet.


----------



## teuchter (Nov 10, 2021)

Things in a number of western european countries that have so far not done too badly, are not looking very good right now.


----------



## teuchter (Nov 10, 2021)

And actually Austria now seems to have overtaken all of the UK's previous peaks.


----------



## Cloo (Nov 10, 2021)

It's grimly fascinating to see how differently things are panning out in different countries. It seems to me that even if UK's current downturn in infections continues indicates a peak for now and the government crows about it, we could still go through winter with a higher rate than other places that have been smart about it, plus they'll not have had the extra couple of thousand deaths in autumn either.


----------



## Yossarian (Nov 11, 2021)

Numbers said:


> We’re currently running at more than 7 deaths an hour.



If the UK had the same COVID death rate as Queensland, the pandemic would have killed 91 people.


----------



## zora (Nov 11, 2021)

elbows said:


> Germany in the shit again but I've not looked at their data myself at all recently.
> 
> 
> 
> https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59234443


It's by all accounts a complete shitshow. Highest ever case rates, incidences of 800-1000 in some regions, coupled with low vaccination rates in those regions (around 50% in the lowest ones, I think - quoted from memory), daily deaths steadily rising. 

Free lateral flow tests were abandoned a little while ago - partly I think as a bit of an arm-twisting towards vaccination, because of the rules allowing access to certain venues (3G or 2G, geimpft, genesen, getested - vaccinated, recovered or tested). So basically the thinking went if you had to pay for a lateral flow test to be able to go to a concert/restaurant, you might get vaccinated instead; and, that the vaccinated majority shouldn't have to pay for the lateral flow test of the unvaccinated few. 

Booster vaccination role out farcical - as late as last week, there was no clarity who was eligible and at what priority. Vaccination centres closed, so role out even slower. I posted upthread that my folks all got theirs - parents eligible because of their age, brother eligible because he had the one-shot Johnson vaccination in early summer. But they are extremely well-informed and well plugged into the system and know how to advocate for themselves - I believe only 2 millions booster shots had been given as of last week (apols, from vague memory again...)

Alarming opinion poll put the wind up everyone last week when it transpired that the majority of not-yet vaccinated said they would not get vaccinated, ever. (Though there is some debate around this - health care professionals who deal with people on a daily basis feel that there is still much to be done by engaging people personally and listening to their concerns about the vaccination and answering questions.)

Frequent references to the UK's "freedom day" as abandoning of all measures, with no mention of the many actual measures still/again quietly in place...testing in schools, individual regular lat flow testing, no visitor rules in some hospitals, many people still working from home, many people still reducing their contacts etc etc.

Massive rhetorical clusterfuck in which the "epidemic situation of national importance" has been declared as ended - which people understandably heard as "pandemic over" when actually this referred to a very specific legal term which enabled the federal government and the individual states to coordinate the pandemic response. 

(I am trying to go next weekend for my brother's wedding. 😅 )


----------



## elbows (Nov 12, 2021)

Sorry to hear that but thanks for all the detail.

Meanwhile in Austria an even more dramatic version of one of the the themes you mention:



> *Austrians are days away from a first lockdown for anyone not fully vaccinated, after record infections were reported across the country.*
> 
> Upper Austria province will impose restrictions from Monday if it gets the go-ahead from the federal government. Salzburg also plans new measures.
> 
> ...





			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59245018


----------



## elbows (Nov 12, 2021)

And the Dutch:



			https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59258409
		




> *Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is set to declare Western Europe's first partial Covid lockdown of the winter, with three weeks of restrictions for shops, sport and catering.*
> 
> His caretaker government is responding to record infections and rising intensive care cases in hospitals.



And now a fucking stupid headline given that we are 'bucking the trend' now because we got in early by having disgustingly high rates for many months before this point.









						UK bucks Europe Covid trend but concern over winter
					

New infections remain steady in the UK, but PM warns there's no room for complacency.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## MrCurry (Nov 12, 2021)

elbows said:


> And the Dutch:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


BBC has become the propaganda wing of the Tory party, so doubtless the headline is not “stupid“ so much as crafty.


----------



## Yossarian (Nov 12, 2021)

elbows said:


> And now a fucking stupid headline given that we are 'bucking the trend' now because we got in early by having disgustingly high rates for many months before this point.



They also didn't mention that the UK's summertime level of case seems to be the point where other countries start bringing in restrictions.


----------



## elbows (Nov 12, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> BBC has become the propaganda wing of the Tory party, so doubtless the headline is not “stupid“ so much as crafty.


Its not just that, I generally see their output as being a wearily predictable aspect of being 'the state broadcaster'.


----------



## Supine (Nov 12, 2021)

Utterly shameful. The west are like pigs in the troff with boosters while less developed countries are hung out to dry.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Nov 12, 2021)

I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens on dec 17th when the borders open, and the thousands of people from southern states, who have had lockdowns etc.. who have bought or rented houses sight unseen where I live and all across qld arrive. It's made it unaffordable for the locals to live here, we have families sleeping in cars who are embedded in the community but been priced out. Homes that once went for $200,000 are now worth half a million. Rentals have gone from $300 a week to $550 a week

This little seaside tourist town I live in is busy over the long Xmas holidays but this year it's going to be unbearable.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Nov 13, 2021)

Honestly, shits fucked up here atm.


----------



## Badgers (Nov 13, 2021)

🤔


----------



## ice-is-forming (Nov 13, 2021)

Badgers said:


> 🤔



Yeah, no idea why I posted that myself badgers.. I think I was saying thank you for the sympathy. But obviously I've been so, so lucky in all this so far. And tbh what with it being summer, everyone's outside lots of vit D etc ...really who knows. I'm sure there's some modelling for the road map out for qld. Having said that there's been times when a case of someone in the community has been found to have been out and about with covid for ten days, and no one else has caught it.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Nov 14, 2021)

This is a good round-up of what's happening across Europe, the low up take of the vaccines in some of the countries that have had the worst outcomes so far, is shocking.



> As a result, nine central and eastern European countries currently feature in the EU’s highest 10 coronavirus daily death rates. Romania and Bulgaria have the bloc’s highest daily fatality rates at around 22 per million – more than 30 times the rates in France, Spain and Portugal.
> 
> Despite ample vaccine supplies, the two countries have fully vaccinated the lowest proportion of their populations of all the EU27: just 34.5% of Romania’s inhabitants have received two jabs, and 23.04% of Bulgaria’s. Both have recently imposed tougher restrictions, while Latvia, another low-vaccinated county, imposed a four-week lockdown as early as mid-October. The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Russia have also tightened measures.











						Why is Europe returning to the dark days of Covid?
					

The continent is now the centre of the global epidemic – again. As countries from the Baltic to the Med brace for harsher winter measures, we look at what’s driving the fourth wave




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## farmerbarleymow (Nov 14, 2021)

Poor snow leopards.  









						Three snow leopards die of Covid-19 at children’s zoo in Nebraska
					

Lincoln Children’s Zoo says deaths of Ranney, Everest and Makalu are ‘truly heartbreaking’, as two tigers recover




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Badgers (Nov 15, 2021)

Covid-19 testing centre in the Czech Republic


----------



## StoneRoad (Nov 15, 2021)

F*****k me !
this report ...









						China Covid: Outrage after pet dog killed by health workers
					

The quarantined owner posted video showing one health worker beating her pet with a crowbar.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## teuchter (Nov 16, 2021)

We don't seem to hear a lot about what's going on in China at the moment where they are still pursuing a zero Covid policy. Article here -









						Why China is still trying to achieve zero Covid
					

While other countries grapple with living with Covid, China is doubling down on stamping it out.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Nov 16, 2021)

teuchter said:


> We don't seem to hear a lot about what's going on in China at the moment where they are still pursuing a zero Covid policy. Article here -
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I have a special kind of laugh reserved for articles like that one.

Plenty of it is true, but its hard for me not to look at the framing and wonder what sort of fascinating articles we could construct if we applied the same sort of analysis to other, 'friendly' countries and our own nation, ie shuffle all the usual biases and unspoken aspects around, twisting the template into a less predictable variation. There are so many home truths to choose from that seem strangely neglected, except of course it isnt strange at all that they are neglected and often go unspoken.

I have those thoughts especially strongly since that article has got stuff like this in it:



> While middle and upper class people may be lamenting the lack of freedom to move about internationally, many ordinary Chinese citizens seem content to allow the government to manage the situation if it keeps them healthy.



Meanwhile in Ireland where the vaccines dont seem to be achieving enough of the 'heavy lifting' referred to in the above article:









						Covid-19: Pubs curfew and working at home return in Ireland
					

Taoiseach Micheál Martin confirms the measures and says the move is due to "another Covid-19 surge".



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> *People in the Republic of Ireland who can work from home will be advised to do so again from Friday due to the country's rise in Covid-19 infection.*
> 
> The Irish government agreed that move as well as an earlier closing time of midnight for bars, restaurants and nightclubs at a meeting on Tuesday.
> 
> ...


----------



## Aladdin (Nov 16, 2021)

elbows said:


> I have a special kind of laugh reserved for articles like that one.
> 
> Plenty of it is true, but its hard for me not to look at the framing and wonder what sort of fascinating articles we could construct if we applied the same sort of analysis to other, 'friendly' countries and our own nation, ie shuffle all the usual biases and unspoken aspects around, twisting the template into a less predictable variation. There are so many home truths to choose from that seem strangely neglected, except of course it isnt strange at all that they are neglected and often go unspoken.
> 
> ...



We are up shit creek.









						Coronavirus Ireland: Covid cases could fill over half of country’s scarce ICU beds in next two weeks
					

Covid-19 patients could take up more than one in two of the country’s scarce intensive care beds in just a fortnight with serious implications for other people in medical need, it emerged yesterday.




					m.independent.ie
				




Covid-19 patients could take up more than one in two of the country’s scarce intensive care beds in just a fortnight with serious implications for other people in medical need, it emerged yesterday.

The combination of Covid-19 pressures and winter illnesses meant that just 94 beds were free across the country yesterday.

Scores of waiting list patients had their procedures cancelled, despite waiting for years in some cases, and this looks set to continue.

HSE chief operations officer Ann O‘Connor said more Covid-19 patients admitted to hospital are very sick and as of yesterday 81 were on a ventilator.

At the same time hospitals are having to struggle with 3,800 staff absent due to Covid-19 related issues, a rise of 1,000 in just a week.


----------



## Yossarian (Nov 16, 2021)

elbows said:


> I have those thoughts especially strongly since that article has got stuff like this in it:



"We asked dozens of ordinary Chinese citizens how they felt about restrictions, they all said 'Can't complain.'"


----------



## Aladdin (Nov 16, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> "We asked dozens of ordinary Chinese citizens how they felt about restrictions, they all said 'Can't complain.'"



Well it is true, isn't it? 
They cant complain...or else...


----------



## elbows (Nov 17, 2021)

I hope the one or two people here who were previously confused about how UK infections compared to some large EU countries, and came out with bogus claims as a result, are taking note of the current situation.

I'm talking about people who claimed that other countries were having 2021 waves with the same timing as the UKs large and sustained wave, and that the differences in figures were just down to testing differences. Well now even Germany is breaking records for case numbers, despite changes a while back that removed certain kinds of free testing from their picture.

Hopefully they will draw the right conclusions now, that the likes of Germany did not have a big wave like the UKs at that time, but now they do, and it shows up in their data.

The BBC live updates page has stuff about that today: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59302812

eg:



> As Germany grapples with record Covid cases, Chancellor Angela Merkel has described the situation as "dramatic".
> 
> "The fourth wave is hitting our country with full force," she tells a congress of German city mayors.
> 
> ...


----------



## teuchter (Nov 17, 2021)

My observation is that Germany's case numbers are now following a similar trajectory, at a similar scale, to what the UK saw in June/July 2021, but their death rate is also seeing quite a dramatic rise that appears to be quite a lot worse than what the UK saw at that same time in the summer.

Germany's vaccination rate now is better than the UK's was in the summer - so would it be wrong to assume that previous infections play a significant role in explaining that difference?


----------



## elbows (Nov 17, 2021)

teuchter said:


> My observation is that Germany's case numbers are now following a similar trajectory, at a similar scale, to what the UK saw in June/July 2021, but their death rate is also seeing quite a dramatic rise that appears to be quite a lot worse than what the UK saw at that same time in the summer.
> 
> Germany's vaccination rate now is better than the UK's was in the summer - so would it be wrong to assume that previous infections play a significant role in explaining that difference?


I'd probably resist relying on a single assumption at the moment.

I suppose factors could include previous infections, vaccine effects waning, differences in which vaccines were given & timing gap between doses, but also number of deaths in previous waves and the level of infections in different age groups previously and this time around. A hell of a lot of UK summer peak infection numbers were in younger age groups for example. And possible seasonal variations, variations in treatment, variations in outbreak settings (eg hospital spread, care home spread) and possibly some other stuff I havent even mentioned here.

edit - oh and vaccine uptake rate by age group, and differences in how deaths are measured.


----------



## 20Bees (Nov 17, 2021)

My son’s wife is Chinese and he has lived there for over 10 years, for the last 5 years in a city in the north. 

On 20 October he said five positive cases (Delta) had been identified in their province and all communities with a close contact had been locked down, schools and malls closed. Two days later their community had someone identified as a potential contact - though not himself a positive case - and they were ordered to remain inside the apartment for at least 14 days. Eventually it took 21 days to be released.  

They’re in a 33 storey apartment in a gated international community. Last lockdown they were allowed into the grounds but only one of them at a time could leave, with temperature checks and ID on leaving and returning. Stricter confinement this time.


teuchter said:


> We don't seem to hear a lot about what's going on in China at the moment where they are still pursuing a zero Covid policy. Article here -
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## Balbi (Nov 17, 2021)

So, we didn't stamp out Delta. Our vax rates are getting up there, but in Tamaki Makaurau we've been in a form of lockdown for 3 months now. Just sent unvaxxed Primary and Intermediate kids back this week, but heaps of parents are keeping their kids at home as case numbers bump around 170-200+ a day.

Govt plan is to get 90% of 12+ vaxxed and then open up into a vaccine passport system with traffic light colours for the regions depending on cases, but with christmas approaching it looks like they're going to shift to that early. Won't be vaxxing under-12's until January 2022 at least. 

Risky business, all of this tbh.


----------



## Flavour (Nov 18, 2021)

"full" (whatever that means) lockdown returning in some parts of Austria









						Austria's focus shifts to full lockdown as COVID-19 cases keep rising
					

Pressure on Austria's government to impose a full COVID-19 lockdown grew on Thursday as its worst-hit provinces said they would adopt the measure for themselves since infections are still rising despite the current lockdown for the unvaccinated.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Aladdin (Nov 18, 2021)

Ireland at 90% over 12s vaccinated 

Booster rolled out 

But we are facing huge numbers and hospitals are unable to cope. 

Government faffed about for way too long...
NOW they are decoding pubs clubs restaurants all to close at midnight every night. 
Return to working from home for everyone bar fornt line to people who cant wfh.
Masks back...indoors and outdoors....they never went away but people got very careless.

They've only just introduced antigen testing in schools starting next week.

It all smacks of too little too late. 
😕


----------



## Supine (Nov 18, 2021)

Opt in vaccinations. Sounds like a good idea.


----------



## editor (Nov 18, 2021)

So there you have it:


> Mask-wearing is the single most effective public health measure at tackling Covid, reducing incidence by 53%, the first global study of its kind shows.
> 
> Vaccines are safe and effective and saving lives around the world. But most do not confer 100% protection, most countries have not vaccinated everyone, and it is not yet known if jabs will prevent future transmission of emerging coronavirus variants.
> 
> ...











						Mask-wearing linked to 53% cut in Covid incidence, global study finds
					

Researchers said results highlight the need to continue with face coverings, social distancing and handwashing alongside vaccine programmes




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## krtek a houby (Nov 19, 2021)

New Zealand is sounding depressingly scary

_dissent has been turning ugly, with death threats against MPs and journalists, increasing protests, warnings from security services about Covid-prompted terror threats, and what researchers have called a “wave” of disinformation tinged with violent rhetoric, QAnon-style conspiracy theories and far-right undertones.

“We’re talking … your aunt and uncle type-people using language like Nuremberg 2.0, common law trials, like ‘the prime minister is a Nazi’ – these are quite extreme terms and terminologies,” says Kate Hannah, a research fellow at Te Pūnaha Matatini’s disinformation project

“Things are starting to escalate,” Labour whip Kieran McAnulty told Stuff on Tuesday, after he’d been publicly denounced by an anti-vaccine campaigner, who said those pushing it should be killed by a lethal injection._

Dissent, threats and fury: mood darkens in New Zealand as Covid restrictions bite


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Nov 19, 2021)

Tennessee vaccine roll out chief fleeing the state
I fear there  will be more tragedies from the fervent believers on the anti vaccines/lockdowns lot.


----------



## elbows (Nov 19, 2021)

Austrias lockdown isnt just for the unvaccinated any more!









						Austria to go into full lockdown as Covid surges
					

As well as Monday's lockdown, the chancellor says vaccinations will be compulsory from February.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Supine (Nov 19, 2021)

elbows said:


> Austrias lockdown isnt just for the unvaccinated any more!
> 
> 
> 
> ...



And compulsory vaccinations!


----------



## teuchter (Nov 19, 2021)




----------



## Badgers (Nov 20, 2021)

Not surprisingly there are loads of people booking travel to Europe over the coming month's. 

Lot of whom are not vaccinated but are furious about paying for PCR tests. 

Had a couple (no vaccines) Thursday afternoon who were flying to Romania early Friday morning and asked what they need to do 🙄 there has been an endless stream of this sort of thing sadly.


----------



## MickiQ (Nov 20, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Not surprisingly there are loads of people booking travel to Europe over the coming month's.
> 
> Lot of whom are not vaccinated but are furious about paying for PCR tests.
> 
> ...


I'm going to take a wild stab in the dark and guess that were not very happy.


----------



## Badgers (Nov 20, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> I'm going to take a wild stab in the dark and guess that were not very happy.


Blamed me entirely and ranted at me that they SHOULD be able to fly anywhere on a lateral flow test.


----------



## StoneRoad (Nov 20, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Blamed me entirely and ranted at me that they SHOULD be able to fly anywhere on a lateral flow test.


You must have the patience of a saint.

I'm not sure I could do that, the temptation to tell *******s like that a few home/world truths would be too much.
[what's so hard about getting your jags, they are free ...]


----------



## Badgers (Nov 20, 2021)




----------



## StoneRoad (Nov 20, 2021)

Badgers said:


> View attachment 297490


I'm becoming convinced that these conspiracy nutters are insane.


----------



## _Russ_ (Nov 20, 2021)

Its concerning how many people have zero capacity for critical thinking, not just the complete loons but loads of people that I know are intelligent seem to buy into the crap that they've see on TV the past months and keep telling me things are a lot better now and that the vaccine has saved us.
No doubt when the media narrative changes so will their outlook, a depressing state of affairs


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Nov 20, 2021)

StoneRoad said:


> You must have the patience of a saint.
> 
> I'm not sure I could do that, the temptation to tell *******s like that a few home/world truths would be too much.
> [what's so hard about getting your jags, they are free ...]


considering they hadn't been able to check the travel rules for their destination ahead of travelling I suspect booking a vaccination might be beyond them.


----------



## Badgers (Nov 20, 2021)

StoneRoad said:


> You must have the patience of a saint.
> 
> I'm not sure I could do that, the temptation to tell *******s like that a few home/world truths would be too much.
> [what's so hard about getting your jags, they are free ...]


Thing is I don't 

But have to wear an ID badge and such 

Don't get me wrong, I have shouted and sworn at a fair few idiot's and will continue to do so.

I understand freedom and fairness. This is nothing like that. It is baseless speculation that hurts/kills people. A % of spoiled wankers and cunts have had an easy life but never been told to do anything. Now they are rebelling against something that helps people. These are the racists, Brexit voters and nut jobs who nobody listened to about anything else.

One charmer on Thursday:

Her: You are bullshit and lying for the government.

Me: Which government is that?

Her: The British government of course.

Me: Thanks for clearing that up. Now, do you have a point or anything?

Her: Cancer and mind control and business and dead babies, Jews and infertile children etc etc etc.

Me: Just fuck off and bore another idiot.

Her: I am going to report you.

Me: Really? Who do you think 'they' will believe on this? The guy who is helping people in a global pandemic, or you...

Look at the bigoted, uneducated state of you. I would not trust you to buy a sandwich, let alone consider your opinions on medical science. Now fuck off and go home alone.


----------



## elbows (Nov 20, 2021)

Are you up for trying variations on the theme of 'thats what the virus wants you to think' on some of these shitheads?


----------



## Badgers (Nov 20, 2021)

elbows said:


> Are you up for trying variations on the theme of 'thats what the virus wants you to think' on some of these shitheads?


I do need some stock replies 🤔


----------



## cupid_stunt (Nov 20, 2021)

Badgers said:


> I do need some stock replies 🤔



It's easy if they bang on about 5G chips & tracking -  'you seem to be confusing the vaccine with your mobile phone, you fucking loon'.


----------



## MickiQ (Nov 20, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Blamed me entirely and ranted at me that they SHOULD be able to fly anywhere on a lateral flow test.


Obviously it's your fault Badgers the mere fact that you are there doing that job proves you are a willing stooge of The Conspiracy


----------



## MickiQ (Nov 20, 2021)

Badgers said:


> I do need some stock replies 🤔


I have to admit was amused when you reported that you had told someone your name was Piers Corbyn and they had wrote it down


----------



## Badgers (Nov 20, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> I have to admit was amused when you reported that you had told someone your name was Piers Corbyn and they had wrote it down


Yeah  

I get 'reported' a lot by these selfish idiots. Oddly nothing has ever been mentioned by the bosses 🤔


----------



## MickiQ (Nov 20, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Yeah
> 
> I get 'reported' a lot by these selfish idiots. Oddly nothing has ever been mentioned by the bosses 🤔


Hopefully this Piers Corbyn fella you keep blaming is in a lot of trouble by now


----------



## Badgers (Nov 20, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> Hopefully this Piers Corbyn fella you keep blaming is in a lot of trouble by now


Not sure 🤔 he keeps a low profile


----------



## T & P (Nov 20, 2021)

The organisers of the Australian Open have confirmed that all players will need to have been vaccinated if they want to take part in next year’s tournament. All eyes on anti-vaxxer twatface Novak Djokovic, who is the  clear favourite to win it and thus become the tennis GOAT with 22 grand slams- if he stops being a nutjob dickhead and agrees to have the jab. Oh the drama 





__





						Australian Open rules Novak Djokovic and all other players must be vaccinated against Covid to play | Australian Open | The Guardian
					

Tournament chief says world No 1 knows he will have to be vaccinated to compete




					amp.theguardian.com


----------



## ice-is-forming (Nov 20, 2021)

Help me out here! There is so much focus on deaths from covid vaccinations. All my usually sensible friends have gone down the rabbit hole!

My entire work team went 300ks to march in Brisbane yesterday. 

My friend sent me this..

"Spoke to these two Drs, both losing their jobs because of mandate. They are part of a medical care support group and ALL hospitalisations are because of the Vax. Ffs. Their stories were unbelievable and there's no media nothing. It was very moving we were in tears. What is happening is unbelievable" 

I'm beginning to feel like I'm the one missing something!


----------



## pbsmooth (Nov 20, 2021)

Well, it's not true. What are you missing?


----------



## 2hats (Nov 21, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> Help me out here! There is so much focus on deaths from covid vaccinations.





> Since the beginning of the vaccine rollout to 14 November 2021, about 37.7 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered. The TGA has found 9 reports of death that were linked to immunisation from 665 reports received and reviewed. The overwhelming majority of deaths reported occurred in people aged 65 years and older. The deaths linked to immunisation occurred after the first dose of Vaxzevria (AstraZeneca) – 8 were TTS cases and one was a case of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP).


Source: TGA COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report, 18 Nov 2021.

Separately, of course, once you have vaccinated the vast majority of the population (currently ~71% for Australia) then statistically you are going to see more hospitalisations (absolute numbers) of vaccinated than unvaccinated (though as a fraction of each cohort more unvaxxed will be hospitalised than vaxxed).


----------



## krtek a houby (Nov 21, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> Help me out here! There is so much focus on deaths from covid vaccinations. All my usually sensible friends have gone down the rabbit hole!
> 
> My entire work team went 300ks to march in Brisbane yesterday.
> 
> ...



You're not. Don't cave in to peer pressure.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Nov 21, 2021)

krtek a houby said:


> You're not. Don't cave in to peer pressure.



Thank you


----------



## ice-is-forming (Nov 21, 2021)

2hats said:


> Source: TGA COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report, 18 Nov 2021.
> 
> Separately, of course, once you have vaccinated the vast majority of the population (currently ~71% for Australia) then statistically you are going to see more hospitalisations (absolute numbers) of vaccinated than unvaccinated (though as a fraction of each cohort more unvaxxed will be hospitalised than vaxxed).


Thank you  

Its quite mad! And I presume that until they open the borders & delta comes in ( in a few weeks) people just aren't going to get it.


----------



## spring-peeper (Nov 21, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> Thank you
> 
> Its quite mad! And I presume that until they open the borders & delta comes in ( in a few weeks) people just aren't going to get it.
> 
> ...



WOW!!!

That is some serious peer pressure!!!
Both your team and the posters you showed.

Pity there is no poster of all the people that are still alive after being vaccinated.  I guess if you listed them all you would need a bigger board.

Odd that the posters of males who died within a day.  I thought it was common knowledge that the vaccine will not start to protect for two weeks, but whatever.

Hang in there, Ice.
You know that you are right.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Nov 21, 2021)

spring-peeper said:


> WOW!!!
> 
> That is some serious peer pressure!!!
> Both your team and the posters you showed.
> ...



Thanks sp

The posters are saying they died from the vax not covid. There's only been 7 people die from covid in qld..ever. I believe all elderly who caught it on a cruise ship in March 2020.

There were thousands of people marching to protest vaccination rules yesterday. Some people don't like being mandated to be vaccinated so that they can keep their job or go into pubs, and a whole variety of other places after Dec 17th when the border opens and we reach I think 80% double vaxxed ( so #not all Queenslanders)

I do understand that they don't think it'll happen here, but tbh it's the first time I've seen Queenslanders protest about anything and it's really quite maddening when there's so many other things that personally I've been protesting and active about for years that impact minorities and marginalised people. Why must they chose this hill to die on! I mean really these are people who wouldn't usually give fascists like Clive Palmer or Pauline Hansen the time of day but here there are attending rallys where these are the main speakers.

You know the most ridiculous thing is that we work with vulnerable people in health ( why we've been mandated to be vaxxed to keep our jobs) and even then my team has gone down the conspiracy rabbit hole.

There's been a huge covid migration from southern states to qld and in Dec, as well as people returning from overseas, there's thousands of people from outa state moving here into houses they've bought unseen to get away from the covid lockdowns in the south.

Everyone was so happy with our qld Labour premier until now. 7 deaths this whole time! She kept our state safe, I really dunno what's going on in people's heads.

My best friend is adamant she won't be getting vaxed because as she has underlying health conditions the vax may kill her , even though  all the specialists she previously trusted have told her to get vaxxed or risk dying when she catches it


----------



## ice-is-forming (Nov 21, 2021)

Thousands attend anti-vaccination rally in Brisbane as Clive Palmer addresses crowd
					

One protester yelled “hang the bitch” at the rally when the speaker began talking about Ms Palaszczuk. Mr Palmer said the PM was “just a liar” in regard to businesses being forced to abide by the vaccine mandate.




					www.brisbanetimes.com.au
				








__





						No Cookies | The Courier Mail
					

No Cookies




					www.couriermail.com.au


----------



## Cloo (Nov 21, 2021)

I  problem I can see happening next summer is that presumably different countries will have different ideas about how many times people should be vaxxed/boosted and will have a requirement of whatever their norm is to enter their country, but if some countries have different ideas about it , which they will, it's all going to be a bit tricky. 

I'd like to finally fucking go abroad, but by the time I can (summer  basically, as passover, as usual knocks out possibility of Easter break abroad) it'll have been 6+ months since my booster and what  if everywhere's going 'Must have a vaccination within last 6 months' and UK's decided I don't need another one, which may be fair enough in itself given I'm not especially vulnerable.


----------



## pbsmooth (Nov 21, 2021)

Those guys mentioned on the posters didn't die of anything to do with the vaccine (obviously) as a quick Google makes clear. 
Presumably these idiots don't believe anything anymore unless it suits their narrative so tricky to reason with. Anyone sane - show them the confirmation it was natural causes.


----------



## RainbowTown (Nov 21, 2021)

Covid: Huge protests across Europe over new restrictions
					

Belgium says 35,000 took part in protests, with unrest in the Netherlands, Austria and Italy.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				





All this, even though the case rates are rising sharply in some European countries...


----------



## Balbi (Nov 21, 2021)

krtek a houby said:


> New Zealand is sounding depressingly scary
> 
> _dissent has been turning ugly, with death threats against MPs and journalists, increasing protests, warnings from security services about Covid-prompted terror threats, and what researchers have called a “wave” of disinformation tinged with violent rhetoric, QAnon-style conspiracy theories and far-right undertones.
> 
> ...



Aye, there's been a coming together of the religious nutbars, the anti-1080 (a pesticide they use to kill rats and possums etc), the far right and the conspiracy theorists as an antivax movement. They're not in any way coherent though, and despite being noisy, have managed to get about 5,000 people max out for a protest (more people were vaccinated the same day than turned out to protest). 

They've also been adopting Māori sovereignty symbols and using it to justify what they're doing - the iwi behind the Ka Mate haka has told them to cut that shit out, one of the lead religious nutters who's Māori has had his hapu (like, larger tribe) publicly call him out which is _mortifying_ if you're Māori, and a lot of key anti-Govt Māori sovereignty activists have never ever engaged with the movement (and have been called govt stooges by the antivaxxers, which is fucking hilarious).

Kieran Macca got doorstepped by an antivax guy who was also an ad-guy for the right-wing political parties here, but is now a mad old man yelling at people on facebook. A lot of the antivax stuff here does have a big American feel to it, you get Trump flags at protests and shit. 

The far right here are also trying to get leverage off it, because they've been down bad since the Christchurch Attacks. 

Every political party is trying to stay the fuck away from the movement, although our Tories are trying to vaguely 'legitimate concerns' to try and differentiate themselves from everyone else - but everyone keeps dunking on them for being associated with the movement.

Probably key to note that we're gonna hit 90% of eligible population double vaccinated in the next few weeks, and roll out vaccinations for under-12s in Q1 2022 now. This movement is angry, but it's incoherent and has absolutely zero popular or political support outside of its Telegram channels and facebook groups.


----------



## Raheem (Nov 21, 2021)

I saw on the news that Hans Kluge, who's the WHO's director for Europe, says that European nation need to take measures, saying that "no country is an island".

I'm not saying he's not right on the first part, but you'd think such a senior figure in the WHO would have at least a basic grasp of geography.


----------



## StoneRoad (Nov 21, 2021)

With modern [air] transport - no country is truly disconnected from the rest of the world ...


----------



## manji (Nov 22, 2021)

There was a pro-NHS demo this evening in London arranged by Unite it was disrupted  by a belligerent group of anti-vaxxers led by Piers Corbyn. They seem to be emboldened by lockdown protests in Europe.


----------



## teqniq (Nov 22, 2021)

Yeah saw something about that on Twitter earlier. Fucking clowns. Apparently there were one or two fash there as well.


----------



## Yossarian (Nov 22, 2021)

Raheem said:


> I saw on the news that Hans Kluge, who's the WHO's director for Europe, says that European nation need to take measures, saying that "no country is an island".
> 
> I'm not saying he's not right on the first part, but you'd think such a senior figure in the WHO would have at least a basic grasp of geography.



"In a way, no country is an island. In another, more real way, 47 countries are islands."


----------



## cupid_stunt (Nov 23, 2021)

Nice, simple and clear messaging from the German Health Minister -

*"By the end of this winter everyone in Germany will either be vaccinated, recovered or dead," Jens Spahn told a news conference in Berlin on Monday.*



> Germany is in the grip of a fourth wave of coronavirus. Cases are rising rapidly and many hospitals are full. It has one of the lowest vaccination rates in Western Europe, with 68% of people fully vaccinated.
> 
> Germany's infection rate is at its highest since the pandemic began, and health experts have warned this wave could be the worst yet. In the past 24 hours, there have been 30,643 new infections - 7,000 more than a week ago. This is among the highest rates in the world.
> 
> Tighter restrictions are to be brought in which will see the unvaccinated excluded from certain venues, and some of Germany's famed Christmas markets have been cancelled.











						Germany Covid: Health minister's stark warning to get jabbed
					

As Germany battles a fourth Covid wave, the health minister gives a stark warning to get vaccinated.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Carvaged (Nov 23, 2021)

These reports about the UK "avoiding" Europe's 4th wave are cringe and ignorant af. We've been in a 4th wave for months now - what are these braindead journos huffing?

Anyway, this might interest/amuse some:



> AstraZeneca CEO: Europe's Covid spike could be linked to not using our vaccine in older people​
> 
> “Antibodies decline over time....What remains, and is very important, is this T-cell response which you only get with AZ. T-cells do matter and in particular it relates to the durability of the response especially in older people and this vaccine has been shown to stimulate T-cells to a higher degree in older people.
> 
> We haven’t seen many hospitalisations in the UK, a lot of infections, for sure. But what matters is: are you severely ill or not? Are you hospitalised or not?"











						Turkish lira tumbles; pandemic worries hit European markets – as it happened
					

Rolling coverage of the latest economic and financial news




					www.theguardian.com
				




For what it's worth, many people were pointing out long ago that AZ may end up being the better choice of vaccine, because short-term antibody numbers are only a small (and very ephemeral) part of the immune response.


----------



## 2hats (Nov 23, 2021)

All the vaccines promote neutralising antibody _and_ T cell responses in the immunocompetent.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Nov 24, 2021)

2hats said:


> All the vaccines promote neutralising antibody _and_ T cell responses in the immunocompetent.



What about on people who are immunocompromised ?


----------



## 2hats (Nov 24, 2021)

ice-is-forming said:


> What about on people who are immunocompromised ?


They are not immunocompetent (of course). Varies with the individuals' circumstances. For some a 3 dose regimen works.


----------



## Aladdin (Nov 24, 2021)

2hats said:


> They are not immunocompetent (of course). Varies with the individuals' circumstances. For some a 3 dose regimen works.




Its a bit of an unknown. Nobody can tell me I'm now safe. Severely immunocompromised and even after 3 jabs I'm told I will get my actual booster jab in April.


----------



## Aladdin (Nov 24, 2021)

14 counties have no PCR test centre appointments available this week in Ireland. 
People are travelling 100s of kms to find a test centre that will test them. 

Ireland is basically fucked now.

So many teachers getting sick that the government is asking Universities to release final year BEds and BAs to go work as substitite teachers.

They've only now introduced antigen tests to schools. 
And they're still saying schools are safe


----------



## kabbes (Nov 25, 2021)

At the same time, Ireland is one of the very best off in Europe so far for deaths per head of population. 







Not that this is a reason not to take the current wave  seriously, of course, or to minimise the deaths. Just to say that Ireland’s handling of it to date has worked out better than most.


----------



## Chairman Meow (Nov 25, 2021)

We were hoping to take a trip to Ireland to see  our families, including my husband's little brother who is going downhill with MND. I am starting to think this is increasingly unlikely. We can't take the risk of getting stuck there  if Oz was to shut the border, and even if we did go back, who knows if we could risk seeing his brother anyway. Its all a bit shit really. I also haven't seen my mum now since 2017, to be honest I am more hopeful of seeing her again than my brother in law, even though mum is 73 and the BIL is 38. All we can hope for is a miracle cure really, both for Covid and MND, and I don't believe in miracles.


----------



## Aladdin (Nov 26, 2021)

kabbes said:


> At the same time, Ireland is one of the very best off in Europe so far for deaths per head of population.
> 
> View attachment 298103
> 
> ...




Our hospitals have 300  ICU beds. In total. For the entire country.
125 are filled with covid patients. That number is rising.

Ireland doesn't have test capacity to cope.
And the virus is now everywhere.

People are dying because of covid here. Dying because the beds are gone to covid patients.

The stats above are not helpful in describing what is actually happening on the ground


----------



## Badgers (Nov 26, 2021)

Spent this morning reading up (as best i can without science skillz) about the new (nu?) B.1.1.529 strain. Too early to be really worried but it certainly needs urgent government action/attention. 

What made me sad was that a lot of my job now is more advisory than testing/vaccinations and a large part of that is travel. Over the past month I have helped a lot of people navigate the PCR test mess that is travel and most have booked flights. Some to see relatives with terminal illness or to deal with the estate of a dead parent.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Nov 26, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Spent this morning reading up (as best i can without science skillz) about the new (nu?) B.1.1.529 strain. Too early to be really worried but it certainly needs urgent government action/attention.
> 
> What made me sad was that a lot of my job now is more advisory than testing/vaccinations and a large part of that is travel. Over the past month I have helped a lot of people navigate the PCR test mess that is travel and most have booked flights. Some to see relatives with terminal illness or to deal with the estate of a dead parent.



See this post - Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion


----------



## MrCurry (Nov 26, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> See this post - Coronavirus in the UK - news, lockdown and discussion


Does anyone who knows about vaccines know how easy / fast it might be to tweak the current vaccines to extend their protection to include this new variant?  Or is that not possible and creating a vaccine against it will take just as long as the current vaccines took to develop?

This is going to be the way of the future isn’t it? An ever increasing pool of variants which diverge further from original covid and proliferate most successfully if they evade the vaccines?  How long until we need three different vaccine shots each six months?


----------



## MickiQ (Nov 26, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Spent this morning reading up (as best i can without science skillz) about the new (nu?) B.1.1.529 strain. Too early to be really worried but it certainly needs urgent government action/attention.
> 
> What made me sad was that a lot of my job now is more advisory than testing/vaccinations and a large part of that is travel. Over the past month I have helped a lot of people navigate the PCR test mess that is travel and most have booked flights. Some to see relatives with terminal illness or to deal with the estate of a dead parent.


This is where the ratlickers have the upper hand, they don't need any actual science skillz, all they need to do is watch a couple of FB videos and they're good to go.


MrCurry said:


> Does anyone who knows about vaccines know how easy / fast it might be to tweak the current vaccines to extend their protection to include this new variant?  Or is that not possible and creating a vaccine against it will take just as long as the current vaccines took to develop?
> 
> This is going to be the way of the future isn’t it? An ever increasing pool of variants which diverge further from original covid and proliferate most successfully if they evade the vaccines?  How long until we need three different vaccine shots each six months?


I'm sure one of the Urbs who does actually know will be along soon but I thought the whole point of the super smart way they made the AZ vaccine at least was that it could be rapidly tweaked to handle new variants


----------



## Supine (Nov 26, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> Does anyone who knows about vaccines know how easy / fast it might be to tweak the current vaccines to extend their protection to include this new variant?  Or is that not possible and creating a vaccine against it will take just as long as the current vaccines took to develop?
> 
> This is going to be the way of the future isn’t it? An ever increasing pool of variants which diverge further from original covid and proliferate most successfully if they evade the vaccines?  How long until we need three different vaccine shots each six months?



There is no evidence, at least yet, that existing vaccines need to be tweaked.


----------



## prunus (Nov 26, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> This is where the ratlickers have the upper hand, they don't need any actual science skillz, all they need to do is watch a couple of FB videos and they're good to go.
> 
> I'm sure one of the Urbs who does actually know will be along soon but I thought the whole point of the super smart way they made the AZ vaccine at least was that it could be rapidly tweaked to handle new variants



It’s the mRNA vaccines (rather than the AZ viral vector one) that can be tweaked quickly - pretty much as soon as the new variant is sequenced. 6 weeks is not unrealistic.  Whether or not it would be deployed in that timeframe depends on whether it’s considered already tested, as ‘the same’ as the other ones, or not, and is tested, at least on a small scale, for safety, efficacy and so on. I’d imagine the latter.  I’d be surprised to see any new variant vaccines deployed within 4 months of sequencing. But then again - it might be a case that we just have to…


----------



## Yossarian (Nov 26, 2021)

It's going to get confusing if the new variant is called the Nu variant - but China's not going to like if they skip a letter and call it the Xi variant.


----------



## 2hats (Nov 26, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> Does anyone who knows about vaccines know how easy / fast it might be to tweak the current vaccines to extend their protection to include this new variant?  Or is that not possible and creating a vaccine against it will take just as long as the current vaccines took to develop?


I guarantee that teams within the various vaccine enterprises are already investigating redesign, if only to better refine the process. They've been performing trial runs with previous variants of concern over the past few months so they will be ready should the need arise. That need, in the case of B.1.1.529, will take some time to establish (if there is any need at all). mRNA vaccine redesign could be measured in weeks but establishment of immunogenicity, in particular with a view to regulatory authorisation, could take a few months.


----------



## StoneRoad (Nov 26, 2021)

I still think that the CoVax program needs to be supported to be expand as quickly as possible and actually "get jabs in arms" .
The relatively low levels of vaccinations outside of Europe & America are very worrying.
IMO, that's why "Delta" developed & this as yet un-named South African variant [the one with an excessive number of mutations] were able to evolve ...
And I'm not sure the UK has acted quickly nor firmly enough to prevent the latter arriving here, in a short time span. They certainly didn't with Delta.


----------



## JoeyBoy (Nov 26, 2021)

2hats said:


> I guarantee that teams within the various vaccine enterprises are already investigating redesign, if only to better refine the process. They've been performing trial runs with previous variants of concern over the past few months so they will be ready should the need arise. That need, in the case of B.1.1.529, will take some time to establish (if there is any need at all). mRNA vaccine redesign could be measured in weeks but establishment of immunogenicity, in particular with a view to regulatory authorisation, could take a few months.


Easy to forget with all the fucking dimwits out there going on and on that there are some very clever people thinking about this as well


----------



## The39thStep (Nov 26, 2021)

Portugal announces new measures 



> Measures​The Government states that the *mask will be mandatory* in closed spaces and the digital certificate will also be mandatory to enter restaurants, hotels and gyms.
> 
> *Digital certificate:: A * certificate is now required to attend restaurants, tourist and hotel establishments, events and shows with marked seats and for gyms.
> 
> ...


----------



## 2hats (Nov 26, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> Does anyone who knows about vaccines know how easy / fast it might be to tweak the current vaccines to extend their protection to include this new variant?


Just to add - less than 4 months according to the Pfizer CEO, earlier this year.


> "We have built a process that within 95 days from the day that we identify a variant as a variant of concern, we will be able to have a vaccine tailor-made against this variant," Bourla said.











						Pfizer CEO says a vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant is 'likely' to emerge
					

The CEO of Pfizer, Albert Bourla, told Fox News he thought a vaccine-resistant coronavirus variant would emerge "one day."




					www.insider.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Nov 26, 2021)

2hats said:


> Just to add - less than 4 months according to the Pfizer CEO, earlier this year.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



3 months is good for developing a vaccine, but how much longer to get it approved, manufactured at scale, and delivered into arms?

Surely we are looking at at least 6 months?


----------



## Supine (Nov 26, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> 3 months is good for developing a vaccine, but how much longer to get it approved, manufactured at scale, and delivered into arms?
> 
> Surely we are looking at at least 6 months?



Most manufacturers have been doing test runs with delta so that they are well practiced in turning around new strains. 

Probably some manufacturing at risk will go on while regulatory hurdles are managed. That’s the way flu works and this would be the same process. 

No idea how long it will take from go into arms but we’re taking months not years


----------



## T & P (Nov 26, 2021)

2hats said:


> I guarantee that teams within the various vaccine enterprises are already investigating redesign, if only to better refine the process. They've been performing trial runs with previous variants of concern over the past few months so they will be ready should the need arise. That need, in the case of B.1.1.529, will take some time to establish (if there is any need at all). mRNA vaccine redesign could be measured in weeks but establishment of immunogenicity, in particular with a view to regulatory authorisation, could take a few months.


I’m guessing the wisest move would be to have the booster jab as soon as one can, rather than wait a few extra weeks in the hope that by then it might have been tweaked to tackle this new variant?


----------



## elbows (Nov 26, 2021)

One of the more depressing things I had to warn everyone about in the early days of the pandemic was that the WHO would not come out in support of travel bans and border restrictions etc, quite the opposite. There are some legitimate reasons why they were wary of such things (used for dodgy purposes by some regimes earlier in human history) but it was also a sign of the neoliberal wanky environment which shaped that institution like it did so many others. And indeed it didnt take long before they decided to twat on about the world tourism board instead of doing the right thing back then.

Sadly I dont think things have changed all that much for the WHO on that front, since I see this in some of todays new variant of concern news:









						Covid: New variant classed 'of concern' and named Omicron
					

More nations are restricting travel to southern Africa to try to slow the spread of a new variant.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> The WHO has said it will take a few weeks to understand the impact of the new variant, as scientists work to determine how transmissible it is.
> 
> It has warned against countries hastily imposing travel restrictions, saying they should look to a "risk-based and scientific approach".





> South Africa's Health Minister Joe Phaahla told reporters that the flight bans were "unjustified".
> 
> "The reaction of some of the countries, in terms of imposing travel bans, and such measures, are completely against the norms and standards as guided by the World Health Organization," he said.



Sorry South Africa, there is a new normal that even shit regimes like the UKs have learnt to pay some attention to at times. Especially as Johnson did not like people calling the Delta variant the Johnson variant, I bet he learnt a political lesson from that if not a public health one.


----------



## Yossarian (Nov 26, 2021)

So they did skip Xi variant as well as Nu variant - though in a way they're all Xi variants.


----------



## 2hats (Nov 26, 2021)

T & P said:


> I’m guessing the wisest move would be to have the booster jab as soon as one can, rather than wait a few extra weeks in the hope that by then it might have been tweaked to tackle this new variant?


Correct. If you are due the third dose now then there is no point delaying. Any B.1.1.529-tweaked vaccines aren't going to be available in a few weeks (outside of clinical trials); perhaps closer to 6 months, which is the second-third dosing interval anyway.

(IANAD, but if I were due dose 3 I'd take a heterologous shot if/when offered; for some other factors may come into play. I'm not due dose 3 for ~6 months though, since as previously mentioned, I've had the luxury to retime mine to _perhaps_ optimise better with respect to a few potential scenarios).


----------



## T & P (Nov 26, 2021)

2hats said:


> Correct. If you are due the third dose now then there is no point delaying. Any B.1.1.529-tweaked vaccines aren't going to be available in a few weeks (outside of clinical trials); perhaps closer to 6 months, which is the second-third dosing interval anyway.
> 
> (IANAD, but if I were due dose 3 I'd take a heterologous shot if/when offered; for some other factors may come into play. I'm not due dose 3 for ~6 months though, since as previously mentioned, I've had the luxury to retime mine to _perhaps_ optimise better with respect to a few potential scenarios).


Cheers. Duly booked my booster for Monday. Could have even done it tomorrow but I’m going to the football in the afternoon, so probably not a good idea


----------



## MrCurry (Nov 27, 2021)

Am I the only one reading “omicron” in my head as the “oh-my-god!” variant?  No? Just me…?  Sorry then.

Well it is an anagram of moronic, which could maybe describe this post nicely.


----------



## two sheds (Nov 27, 2021)

yes I've been reading it as Omigod too


----------



## _Russ_ (Nov 27, 2021)

T & P said:


> Cheers. Duly booked my booster for Monday. Could have even done it tomorrow but I’m going to the football in the afternoon, so probably not a good idea


I know I'll get shit for it but I can't not call out that sort of prioritization, pisses me right off that I havnt even been offered the booster and then read of people delaying it so can go watch a football match and crowd together with a huge bunch of other Like-minded sheeple


----------



## Supine (Nov 27, 2021)

Jesus wept! That’s mad.


----------



## two sheds (Nov 27, 2021)

Kept on the plane 'for hours' isn't going to help isolate the infections.


----------



## Yossarian (Nov 27, 2021)

_Russ_ said:


> I know I'll get shit for it but I can't not call out that sort of prioritization, pisses me right off that I havnt even been offered the booster and then read of people delaying it so can go watch a football match and crowd together with a huge bunch of other Like-minded sheeple



Double-vaxxed people who schedule their booster shot at a convenient date aren't really the problem here.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Nov 27, 2021)

Welcome to Europe, Omicron.


----------



## LDC (Nov 27, 2021)

_Russ_ said:


> I know I'll get shit for it but I can't not call out that sort of prioritization, pisses me right off that I havnt even been offered the booster and then read of people delaying it so can go watch a football match and crowd together with a huge bunch of other Like-minded sheeple



FFS, you really seem a nasty and stupid prick.


----------



## Yossarian (Nov 27, 2021)

This virologist's take on Omicron is far from reassuring - from what Dr. Hatiionnou and other reputable experts are saying, it seems like the wisest thing to do might be to act as if we were at the dawn of a new pandemic and take proactive measures including, at the very least, a return to mask mandates - but it's the last news anybody wants to hear right now and it seems like there's zero chance of it happening unless hospitals become overwhelmed. 

_Theodora Hatziioannou, a virologist at Rockefeller University in New York, said that Omicron’s distinctive mutations raise the possibility that it first evolved inside the body of someone with H.I.V., whose immune systems may have been too weak to quickly fight it off. “Your responses are just not as good,” Dr. Hatziioannou said.

Instead of getting cleared away in a matter of days, the virus may have lingered in that person for months, spending the time gaining the ability to evade antibodies. “This virus has seen a lot of antibodies,” Dr. Hatziioannou said.

Dr. Hatziioannou and her colleagues have been able to produce mutant spike proteins in their laboratory that make viruses highly resistant to Covid-19 antibodies. She said that Omicron has many mutations in the same regions of the spike protein pinpointed in their own research. “The overlap is pretty striking,” she said._









						New Virus Variant Stokes Concern but Vaccines Still Likely to Work
					

The Omicron variant carries worrisome mutations that may let it evade antibodies, scientists said. But it will take more research to know how it fares against vaccinated people.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Raheem (Nov 27, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Welcome to Europe, Omicron.


And now to the UK.









						Covid live: UK to bring in new measures after Omicron variant detected; Israel bans oversea visitors – as it happened
					

Masks to be mandatory in shops and on public transport in Britain; Israel closes border initially for 14 days




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Sunray (Nov 27, 2021)

MrCurry said:


> Does anyone who knows about vaccines know how easy / fast it might be to tweak the current vaccines to extend their protection to include this new variant?  Or is that not possible and creating a vaccine against it will take just as long as the current vaccines took to develop?
> 
> This is going to be the way of the future isn’t it? An ever increasing pool of variants which diverge further from original covid and proliferate most successfully if they evade the vaccines?  How long until we need three different vaccine shots each six months?











						BioNTech says it could tweak Covid vaccine in 100 days if needed
					

Company says it will know in two weeks whether current Pfizer jab is effective against Omicron variant




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## elbows (Nov 28, 2021)

Surreal scenes.











						Czech president swears in Petr Fiala as PM behind glass screen
					

Milos Zeman performs inauguration ceremony from cubicle after testing positive for coronavirus




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## T & P (Dec 1, 2021)

Wow… I’m all for encouraging vaccinations and restricting travel, access to venues and whatnot to those who refuse, but forcing people to get jabbed is a bold move.









						Covid Omicron: Time to consider mandatory jabs, EU chief says
					

EU countries should discuss forced vaccinations to combat the Omicron variant, says Ursula von der Leyen.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




 It’s never going to happen imo… if there are already riots by idiots objecting to the possibility of having to wear masks again or facing earlier bar closing times, imagine the shitstorm if they’re forced to get jabbed.


----------



## StoneRoad (Dec 1, 2021)

T & P said:


> Wow… I’m all for encouraging vaccinations and restricting travel, access to venues and whatnot to those who refuse, but forcing people to get jabbed is a bold move.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Might be a tactic to increase take-up ...

Similar to the tory sh1tecunt5 "leaking" some potential policy changes - seeing how much opposition the ideas attract, and then doing something slightly less bad ...


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 2, 2021)

This is a good country by country round-up of what's happening across Europe ATM.









						COVID in Europe: Netherlands to reopen shops and hairdressers
					

Here's a round-up of the COVID situation across Europe.




					www.euronews.com


----------



## 2hats (Dec 2, 2021)

Further indication of spillover, this time to white-tailed deer in Canada.





						First case of SARS-CoV-2 detected in Canadian wildlife - Canada.ca
					

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), the Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA), the Public Health Agency of Canada, Parks Canada, provincial and territorial governments, Canadian Wildlife Health Cooperative (CWHC), and academic partners have been proactively engaged in research to...




					www.canada.ca


----------



## _Russ_ (Dec 2, 2021)

I wish the media would stop quoting Dr Angelique Coetzee, its like she is the only GP in South Africa


----------



## elbows (Dec 2, 2021)

A mild strain of the media is too much to hope for.


----------



## marshall (Dec 2, 2021)

How does Germany plan on enforcing this?


----------



## The39thStep (Dec 2, 2021)

Portugal not messing around with the new requirements for a negative test to enter Portugal. Sanctions against passengers and airlines . 



> This morning, close to 20 people were fined at Portuguese airports for disembarking without a negative Covid-19 test. Two passengers came from outside the European Union and have to return to their countries of origin.
> All will have to pay fines, which can reach 800 euros.
> 
> The airlines will be notified and have a period of five days to make a deposit of 20 thousand euros.


----------



## The39thStep (Dec 2, 2021)

I went for a flu jab today ( takes an hour as they are doing covid booster at the same time) and the staff were really strict  with the few who whilst waiting pulled their masks under their noses. One polite encouragement, if needed a second firmer tone and strike three get security or the civil protection to explain either comply or out you go and you have to rebook.


----------



## elbows (Dec 3, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> Our hospitals have 300  ICU beds. In total. For the entire country.
> 125 are filled with covid patients. That number is rising.
> 
> Ireland doesn't have test capacity to cope.
> ...


I see they have been forced to act:









						Covid-19: Ireland closes nightclubs and tightens Covid rules
					

Taoiseach Micheál Martin announces a number of new restrictions in a televised address.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 3, 2021)

elbows said:


> I see they have been forced to act:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Yep. Took their time. 
Media playing games. All last week it was wall to wall "what are the government going to do...why are they not acting on blah blah ".

Now the media is all "oh the poor vintners ... and oh dear think of the children having to wear masks...how awful".


----------



## 2hats (Dec 4, 2021)

Hippos now.








						Hippos test positive for COVID at Belgian zoo – DW – 12/03/2021
					

The two hippos at Antwerp Zoo tested positive for the coronavirus after a vet noticed their noses were "expelling snot." The huge animals, who are mother and daughter, are not in great peril.




					www.dw.com


----------



## weltweit (Dec 4, 2021)

2hats said:


> Hippos now.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Blimey, which of "hands face space" had they disobeyed ?


----------



## Chilli.s (Dec 4, 2021)

weltweit said:


> Blimey, which of "hands face space" had they disobeyed ?


Their keeper is so fond of them though


----------



## two sheds (Dec 4, 2021)

and they're rubbish at wearing masks


----------



## weltweit (Dec 5, 2021)

I just heard on the World Service that India has now vaccinated more than a billion people and that some locations (counties perhaps) have completely immunised their populations. I am looking for a link, can't find one yet but yay go India!


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 5, 2021)

weltweit said:


> I just heard on the World Service that India has now vaccinated more than a billion people and that some locations (counties perhaps) have completely immunised their populations. I am looking for a link, can't find one yet but yay go India!



Well they did ban exports of vaccines earlier this year, intended for many poorer countries, because they got hit hard by delta, but at least now they have started to export some again, so hopefully those left behind countries will finally start getting their share.


----------



## weltweit (Dec 5, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Well they did ban exports of vaccines earlier this year, intended for many poorer countries, because they got hit hard by delta, but at least now they have started to export some again, so hopefully those left behind countries will finally start getting their share.


I didn't know about their export ban.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 5, 2021)

weltweit said:


> I didn't know about their export ban.



They are the largest vaccine producer in the world, and IIRC theSerum Institute is the largest manufacturer, of course, they were licenced to produce the AZ vaccine at cost to most of Africa, as well as other poorer countries, hundreds of millions doses were diverted to the domestic market, can't blame them TBH, delta hit them so hard.



> *India will resume Covid vaccine exports from October, Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya has announced.*
> The world's largest vaccine producer had halted exports in April to cater to domestic demand as infections shot up.
> The announcement comes as Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Washington on Tuesday for a summit of the Quad leaders - US, India, Japan and Australia.
> Officials say vaccines exports are likely to be discussed at the meeting.
> ...











						Covid vaccine: India to resume vaccine exports from October
					

The world's largest vaccine maker halted exports in April to meet domestic demand as cases rose.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## MickiQ (Dec 5, 2021)

two sheds said:


> and they're rubbish at wearing masks


What I want to know is who got the job of sticking a cotton bud down their noses


----------



## elbows (Dec 5, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> They are the largest vaccine producer in the world, and IIRC theSerum Institute is the largest manufacturer, of course, they were licenced to produce the AZ vaccine at cost to most of Africa, as well as other poorer countries, hundreds of millions doses were diverted to the domestic market, can't blame them TBH, delta hit them so hard.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


As well as the UK having the cheek to source millions of AZ doses from them, a plan that was partially stalled by their export ban.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 5, 2021)

elbows said:


> As well as the UK having the cheek to source millions of AZ doses from them, a plan that was partially stalled by their export ban.



That was part of the arrangement with the Serum Institute, and a tiny fraction that were going to be produced by them, and sold at cost, thanks to the UK government.

Not sure any other government has insisted vaccines developed in their countries are sold at cost.


----------



## 2hats (Dec 6, 2021)

Why am I getting this strong feeling of déjà vu?








						COVID outbreak on cruise ship in New Orleans may be due to omicron
					

Some disembarked passengers said they were never told about the outbreak.




					arstechnica.com


----------



## two sheds (Dec 6, 2021)

Why would it be more transmissive - higher number of the virus carried as you breathe out?


----------



## Supine (Dec 7, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Why would it be more transmissive - higher number of the virus carried as you breathe out?



Could be that, could be more airborne, or could be better at latching on when it finds a new host. Or a combination of all three. Or maybe because it’s just a bit of a cunt.


----------



## two sheds (Dec 9, 2021)

a few bankrupt Republicans you'd think. Can they in fact go bankrupt? I don't think they can for student debt repayments.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Dec 9, 2021)

It's 680 days since Queensland closed the borders, and now at 80% of people vaccinated  we are opening them again on Monday. 

There are still rules about quarantining, having vaccs and testing if you enter the state. And on Dec 17th a whole lot of restrictions about where you can and can't go, where you can and can't work. Still check ins, still restrictions on numbers etc. And I expect this will get worse before things get better.

It makes me happy that 80% of people are vaccinated, because it feels like I work with the 20% who aren't  and it's a real struggle not to knock peoples heads together.


----------



## weltweit (Dec 9, 2021)

Optical sensor detects viruses like COVID-19 with ‘nearly instantaneous results’
					

Researchers have developed a device that detects viruses like COVID-19 in the body as fast as and more accurately than commonly used rapid detection tests.




					www.theengineer.co.uk


----------



## two sheds (Dec 9, 2021)

called 'dogs' aren't they?


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 10, 2021)

weltweit said:


> Optical sensor detects viruses like COVID-19 with ‘nearly instantaneous results’
> 
> 
> Researchers have developed a device that detects viruses like COVID-19 in the body as fast as and more accurately than commonly used rapid detection tests.
> ...



Using nanotechnology, that should get an interesting reaction from the loons.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 10, 2021)

two sheds said:


> called 'dogs' aren't they?



I don't get why covid sniffer dogs are not in common use by now, beyond the fact that it takes a few weeks to train them, because they started trials early last year, with good results.

This one is from earlier this year -









						Bio Detection dogs identify COVID-19 with up to 94% accuracy | LSHTM
					

People who are infected with the SARS-CoV-2 virus have a distinct odour that can be detected by trained dogs with a high degree of accuracy, according to new research. This is the most complete study of its kind to date, combining data collected during the first phase of the dog trial, odour...




					www.lshtm.ac.uk


----------



## two sheds (Dec 10, 2021)

I know - seems fucking mad. The dogs in that picture look like labs and retrievers and it doesn't say what breeds can do it but they all have amazing sense of smell and there's no shortage of alsations and other dogs needing rehoming at the moment. I thought I'd read that one of the Scandinavian countries were using them last summer.


----------



## teuchter (Dec 10, 2021)

The UK only carries out going on for a million tests a day. It would be no probs getting hold of tens of thousands of specially trained sniffer dogs and building vast sniffer dog facilities. Madness that this hasn't happened.


----------



## xenon (Dec 10, 2021)

How would you practically use them other than perhaps sampling a crowd for statistical purposes .  At airports, train stations? Excuse me sir, Rover here indicates you've got coronavirus... No stand back but go home immediately....


----------



## Sue (Dec 10, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> I don't get why covid sniffer dogs are not in common use by now, beyond the fact that it takes a few weeks to train them, because they started trials early last year, with good results.
> 
> This one is from earlier this year -
> 
> ...


It's like the Israelis in World War Z.


----------



## platinumsage (Dec 10, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> I don't get why covid sniffer dogs are not in common use by now, beyond the fact that it takes a few weeks to train them, because they started trials early last year, with good results.
> 
> This one is from earlier this year -
> 
> ...



Based on the figures in that article, it seems a dog has an 800x false positive rate compared to a lateral flow test. If they used dogs at all school gates with the aim of keeping COVID-positive children out of schools, 712000 children who didn't have coronavirus would be incorrectly sent home every day.


----------



## two sheds (Dec 10, 2021)

xenon said:


> How would you practically use them other than perhaps sampling a crowd for statistical purposes .  At airports, train stations? Excuse me sir, Rover here indicates you've got coronavirus... No stand back but go home immediately....


well you could use them to screen people going into crowded halls or yes crowded railway/tube stations.


----------



## two sheds (Dec 10, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> Based on the figures in that article, it seems a dog has an 800x false positive rate compared to a lateral flow test. If they used dogs at all school gates with the aim of keeping COVID-positive children out of schools, 712000 children who didn't have coronavirus would be incorrectly sent home every day.


?



> The highest performing dogs in the trial detected the odour of the virus in the samples with up to 94.3% sensitivity (meaning a low risk of false negative results) and up to 92% specificity (meaning a low risk of false positive results). This is a greater accuracy than recommended by the World Health Organization for COVID-19 diagnostics, with the dogs consistently outperforming lateral flow tests across sensitivities between 80-90%, which have an overall sensitivity of between 58-77%.
> 
> While PCR is the gold standard of tests, with 97.2% sensitivity and 90% specificity, the researchers emphasise the dogs have the advantage of being incredibly rapid, and non-invasive, with the potential to quickly and passively screen individuals in public places without inconvenience.


----------



## platinumsage (Dec 10, 2021)

two sheds said:


> ?



Those figures for PCR and LFT accuracy are from cloud cuckoo land.


----------



## xenon (Dec 10, 2021)

two sheds said:


> What happened to the apparent quick paper swab / spit tests a US company was developing. I think they didn't have a very high accuracy rate if looking at individuals but could be helpful in mass testing, e.g. classrooms. The advantage being, they gave results immediately.



Heh. Good luck with that. Apart from the pragmatics. Yeah, I know they have drug sniffer dogs at stations to target searches but...

I'm not the most agro person but if was told to go home because a dog may have caught the wiff of rona on me, I'd not be inclined to obey as I'm probably going somewhere for a non trivial reason to start with. Assuming asymptomatically infected of course. Wouldn't be travelling in the first place otherwise.


----------



## xenon (Dec 10, 2021)

xenon said:


> Heh. Good luck with that. Apart from the pragmatics. Yeah, I know they have drug sniffer dogs at stations to target searches but...
> 
> I'm not the most agro person but if was told to go home because a dog may have caught the wiff of rona on me, I'd not be inclined to obey as I'm probably going somewhere for a non trivial reason to start with. Assuming asymptomatically infected of course. Wouldn't be travelling in the first place otherwise.



Also dogs are intimidating. You'd get more compliance if there were a very quick test, with very high accuracy. That I would follow.


----------



## two sheds (Dec 10, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> Those figures for PCR and LFT accuracy are from cloud cuckoo land.


What are the figures/WHO figures? I'd also imagine the accuracy will have been reduced somewhat, certainly in the South West, by that lab that was churning out false negatives.









						Covid cases set to rocket in Gloucestershire following lab testing errors — Gloucestershire News Service
					

Gloucestershire’s COVID-19 case rate is set to rocket because of recent false negative test results from the UKHSA laboratory, the county council has warned today (Oct 21).




					www.glosnews.com
				






> Gloucestershire’s COVID-19 case rate is set to rocket because of recent false negative test results from the UKHSA laboratory, the county council has warned today (Oct 21).


----------



## elbows (Dec 10, 2021)

two sheds said:


> What are the figures/WHO figures? I'd also imagine the accuracy will have been reduced somewhat, certainly in the South West, by that lab that was churning out false negatives.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I dont think estimates for test accuracy are based on the continual use of all real-world data as it accrues, so I highly doubt the lab fiasco made any difference to official estimates.


----------



## two sheds (Dec 10, 2021)

xenon said:


> Also dogs are intimidating. You'd get more compliance if there were a very quick test, with very high accuracy. That I would follow.


They could use fluffy non-aggressive spaniel types, and if compliance was a problem they could have fuck-off huge alsations in reserve to set on people who didn't comply :

This was the article I read from last year 'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid

and from May this year









						Faster than a PCR test: dogs detect Covid in under a second
					

Study in London used six enthusiastic dogs in a double-blind trial




					www.theguardian.com
				




Doesn't seem such a ludicrous proposal to me. I'd be happy to trust a dog - particularly with the false LFT readings you keep hearing about.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 10, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> Based on the figures in that article, it seems a dog has an 800x false positive rate compared to a lateral flow test. If they used dogs at all school gates with the aim of keeping COVID-positive children out of schools, 712000 children who didn't have coronavirus would be incorrectly sent home every day.



I am confused, the article says there's a low risk of false positives. 



> The highest performing dogs in the trial detected the odour of the virus in the samples with up to 94.3% sensitivity (meaning a low risk of false negative results) and up to 92% specificity (meaning a low risk of false positive results). This is a greater accuracy than recommended by the World Health Organization for COVID-19 diagnostics, with the dogs consistently outperforming lateral flow tests across sensitivities between 80-90%, which have an overall sensitivity of between 58-77%.


----------



## elbows (Dec 10, 2021)

This discussion will come down to which studies figures, or amalgamated figures, for lateral flow tests platinumsage prefers. Different attempts to study this have yielded different results. Whether the testing is supervised made quite a difference to early uk estimates for a start.

Here is one example of an article that somewhat looks into this, but I expect its not the best one. If platinumsage tells us which source they favour, I'll look intot he detail.









						How reliable are lateral flow COVID-19 tests? - The Pharmaceutical Journal
					

It is estimated that around one-third of people with COVID-19 do not have symptoms and could be spreading the virus unknowingly. To help tackle this, the government has rolled out rapid lateral flow antigen tests that can detect cases in under 30 minutes, meaning those who have a positive test...




					pharmaceutical-journal.com


----------



## two sheds (Dec 10, 2021)

What do you think of the idea elbows ? Practical or not?


----------



## elbows (Dec 10, 2021)

I tmight be a useful tool in the arsenal but as usual it will come down to how much it can scale up - in this case supply of not just suitably trained dogs but also the people to handle them.

Some measures also end up adding value because they act as deterrents and changers of behaviour, eg make people think about whether their choice of venue is actually safe and whether its worth the hassle.


----------



## two sheds (Dec 10, 2021)

True, mind you Johnson would likely hand it over to Athos who'd invest in a huge programme of rearing specially trained puppies who'd be ready by 2027.


----------



## Chilli.s (Dec 10, 2021)

I like the idea of a dog that'll growl at any covid carrier that comes near me


----------



## Dogsauce (Dec 11, 2021)

Guess this belongs in world news but could go in any of the loon threads.

French women buys fake vaccination certificate, gets sick, is treated by the hospital as though she has antibodies from the vaccine, doesn’t end well.









						Covid-19 : une femme de 57 ans avec un faux certificat de vaccination meurt dans un hôpital à Garches
					

Admise pour une infection au Covid-19, cette femme de 57 ans avait présenté un faux certificat de vaccination à son entrée à l'hôpital Raymond-Poincaré de Garches (Hauts-de-Seine).




					www.francetvinfo.fr
				




auto-translated extracts:



> This woman was admitted to hospital in early December for Covid-19 infection. Her state of health quickly challenged the medical teams: "This was the first time we had confronted a young person, with no known medical history, a priori vaccinated, and who was developing a form of remarkable severity in its severity," explains Professor Djilali Annane.
> 
> The intensive care unit teams then carry out numerous tests to detect a possible disease unknown to the victim, without success. On the other hand, it is by testing antibodies that the mystery is solved: the woman had presented a fake vaccination certificate. Unfortunately, it was too late to change her treatment and the fifty-year-old died shortly after. "We are never angry with her patients but when we were revealed that she had not been vaccinated, we better understood the progress of her clinical history."
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Dec 11, 2021)

If they are going to take neutralising antibodies into account when deciding on treatments then they should really try to measure those in the patient rather than make assumptions. Because even if she'd really been vaccinated we shouldnt make assumptions about the results that will have on individuals immune responses over time.


----------



## 2hats (Dec 11, 2021)

elbows said:


> If they are going to take neutralising antibodies into account when deciding on treatments then they should really try to measure those in the patient rather than make assumptions. Because even if she'd really been vaccinated we shouldnt make assumptions about the results that will have on individuals immune responses over time.


If your healthcare resources are greatly stretched (or under-resourced) then you are clearly going to lean towards leveraging patient medical "history" in order to both expedite their care and free up time/resources for other cases, rather than evaluating everything from scratch. NAbs testing is highly specialised, usually time consuming and expensive (compared to binding), and, as you say, one doesn't necessarily always follow from the other (insert warnings about people making assumptions from diagnostic binding antibody tests, correlates of protection, etc).

Perhaps a cautionary tale worth publicising to the hard-of-thinking anti-vax control cohort.


----------



## elbows (Dec 11, 2021)

Yeah. Let me consider it a slightly different way then, they could have assumed the vaccine wasnt working well for the patient and consider going for more aggressive treatment sooner. I only say that because I expect there will be otherwise-healthy 50 year olds who dont end up being protected by genuine vaccination, and I dont have a problem with this particular case being used to draw attention to the dangers of faking vaccination status.

edited to say - I somewhat regret these posts because I dont want to be an armchair doctor or criticise medical care under difficult circumstances. These angles just leapt into my brain based on the way the story was written and my dislike of assumptions, and using a certain form of logic. And I think I get too stressed at this stage of new pandemic waves emerging, and it affects my posts at times.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Dec 12, 2021)

Brazil to require proof of vaccination for arriving travellers
That'll mess my loon acquaintance travel plan for 2022 then.


----------



## frogwoman (Dec 13, 2021)

my russian friend's dad just died of Covid in St Petersburg.


----------



## frogwoman (Dec 15, 2021)

It actually makes me pretty upset. RT and other state news channels spent most of 2020 and 2021 stoking distrust of Pfizer, AstraZeneca etc and trust in the state is already completely shot, with the predictable result that only about 35% of people have even had their first Jab


----------



## hegley (Dec 15, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> What I want to know is who got the job of sticking a cotton bud down their noses


----------



## Supine (Dec 15, 2021)

hegley said:


> View attachment 300903



Perfect for Michael Gove’s coke addled septum


----------



## 2hats (Dec 15, 2021)

hegley said:


> View attachment 300903


Going to need a longer swab.








						Lioness at Belgian zoo tests positive for COVID-19
					

A lioness in a Belgian zoo has been diagnosed with COVID-19 and the members of her pride have gone into isolation in individual enclosures away from the public, the Pairi Daiza Park said.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## 2hats (Dec 16, 2021)

Going to need a longer needle.








						Zoo in Chile tests experimental COVID vaccine on lions and tigers
					

At the Buin Zoo on the outskirts of Chilean capital Santiago, a veterinarian sporting a tiger-striped face mask administers an experimental COVID-19 vaccine to a tiger in a cage, as another zoo worker feeds the animal chunks of raw meat via a pair of long tongs.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## spring-peeper (Dec 16, 2021)

The States has surpassed 800,000 covid deaths.









						U.S. leads world at 800K COVID-19 deaths. Here's how Canada ranks
					

The U.S. passed a grim milestone on Tuesday, with more than 800,000 COVID-19 related deaths now reported in the country. Canada, meanwhile has seen 30,022 fatalities linked to the virus, and sits behind several other countries when it comes to coronavirus deaths




					www.ctvnews.ca
				





The United States with 800,343 deaths
Brazil: 616,970 deaths
India: 476,135 deaths
Mexico: 296,721 deaths
Russia: 286,023 deaths
Peru: 201,848 deaths
The United Kingdom: 147,085 deaths
Indonesia: 143,960 deaths
Italy: 135,049 deaths
Iran: 130,831 deaths
Canada currently sits in the 27th spot for COVID-19 fatalities, with 30,022 deaths reported as of Wednesday morning.

eta:

In my county, we have had 255 cases, three are active and no deaths.


----------



## Hollis (Dec 17, 2021)

If anyone wants to find a reason to get out of Xmas then just go to the NHS Covid app, and put in any symptoms and it'll tell you to self-isolate for 10 days!   I just put in one symptom - a high temperature - and it's told me to self-isolate..   I think I'll wait till i get the PRC result back..


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Dec 17, 2021)

Hollis said:


> If anyone wants to find a reason to get out of Xmas then just go to the NHS Covid app, and put in any symptoms and it'll tell you to self-isolate for 10 days!   I just put in one symptom - a high temperature - and it's told me to self-isolate..   I think I'll wait till i get the PRC result back..


Long live the PRC


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 17, 2021)

Ireland news..pubs and restaurants etc to shut at 8pm from Monday.

The Cabinet has agreed to implement an 8pm closing time for hospitality and live events, as well as other indoor venues such as cinemas and theatres, to curb the spread of Covid-19 over the Christmas period.


----------



## MickiQ (Dec 17, 2021)

Sugar Kane said:


> Ireland news..pubs and restaurants etc to shut at 8pm from Monday.
> 
> The Cabinet has agreed to implement an 8pm closing time for hospitality and live events, as well as other indoor venues such as cinemas and theatres, to curb the spread of Covid-19 over the Christmas period.


Does this include New Year's Eve? Middle Q and Paddy are going to the Emerald Isle on the 27th to spend New Year with his family. In the Before Times she phoned us up at 2am on New Years Day 2019 to wish us a Happy New Year.
She was clearly blasted and from the sounds of drunken Irishmen in the background singing songs about fighting the English at some place called Carlow she wasn't the only one.
Perhaps we won't get woken up this year.


----------



## Aladdin (Dec 17, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> Does this include New Year's Eve? Middle Q and Paddy are going to the Emerald Isle on the 27th to spend New Year with his family. In the Before Times she phoned us up at 2am on New Years Day 2019 to wish us a Happy New Year.
> She was clearly blasted and from the sounds of drunken Irishmen in the background singing songs about fighting the English at some place called Carlow she wasn't the only one.
> Perhaps we won't get woken up this year.



Restrictions are to 30th Jan as far as I  can gather... review on the 11th Jan. 

So... hmmm
..new years eve pubs will be closed at 8pm
They are allowing take aways and click collect though... not sure if that is for alcohol im pubs?


----------



## Numbers (Dec 17, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> Does this include New Year's Eve? Middle Q and Paddy are going to the Emerald Isle on the 27th to spend New Year with his family. In the Before Times she phoned us up at 2am on New Years Day 2019 to wish us a Happy New Year.
> She was clearly blasted and from the sounds of drunken Irishmen in the background singing songs about fighting the English at some place called Carlow she wasn't the only one.
> Perhaps we won't get woken up this year.


Good place Carlow, had many a good night there.


----------



## spring-peeper (Dec 18, 2021)

Refugees lack Covid-19 shots because drugmakers fear lawsuits: Documents
					

Many vaccine manufacturers have required that countries indemnify them for any harmful side effects, the UN says.  Read more at straitstimes.com.




					www.straitstimes.com
				






> Tens of millions of migrants may be denied Covid-19 vaccines from a global programme because some major manufacturers are worried about legal risks from harmful side effects, according to officials and internal documents from Gavi, the charity operating the programme, reviewed by Reuters.
> 
> Nearly two years into a pandemic that has already killed more than five million people, only about 7 per cent of people in low-income countries have received a dose.
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Dec 18, 2021)

This bit from the above article is in some ways totally arse-backwards:



> officials say unvaccinated people offer an ideal environment for it to mutate into new variants that threaten hard-won immunity around the world



Its actually immunity from natural infection and from vaccines that give variants which can bypass some of those protections an advantage which enables some of them to thrive and dominate once they have arrived on the scene by chance. Any factor that allows more infections to happen drives up the sheer number of mutations that will occur, and the unvaccinated have a role in that, but they are hardly the only factor.


----------



## platinumsage (Dec 20, 2021)

Denmark measures:





__





						Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
					





					www.bloomberg.com
				




'Denmark’s government plans new coronavirus containment measures, including capacity restrictions for stores and restaurants, as the country crossed 11,000 daily confirmed cases for the first time during the pandemic. The minority cabinet proposed closing zoos, theme parks, theaters and cinemas to halt activity in society and break contamination chains, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told reporters in Copenhagen on Friday. It will also propose compensation for businesses affected by new restrictions, she said.

“This is not a lockdown of society as we saw last winter,” Frederiksen said. “But we need to immediately reduce activity in society.” She added 11,194 cases of infection had been confirmed on Friday, with the new omicron strain making up a fifth. Denmark, which has some of the highest numbers of omicron cases on record, has gradually been imposing more and more restrictions for more than a month to curb the spread of the new variant. Earlier this week, the country’s school children, which as a group have been driving the rise in contamination, were sent home for Christmas a week ahead of schedule. 

Even though the new restrictions will likely reduce economic activity as consumers are wrapping up Christmas shopping and potentially for months to come, the economy will not be “fundamentally impacted,” the finance ministry said in an updated economic forecast earlier on Friday.'


----------



## spring-peeper (Dec 20, 2021)

Quebec shutting down schools, bars, gyms as COVID-19 cases soar  | Globalnews.ca
					

Cases of COVID-19 have been reaching record levels on a daily basis in Quebec, including more than 4,500 on Monday as the Omicron variant takes hold on the province.




					globalnews.ca
				






> Quebec is shutting down a number of industries, along with in-person learning at schools, over skyrocketing cases of COVID-19 and an increase in hospitalizations.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## MickiQ (Dec 20, 2021)

It looks like Middle and Paddy won't be going to the Emerald Isle for New Year after all, O'Paddy Sr has apparently advised his son and future daughter-in-law to cancel it and get their money back off the ferry company whilst they still can.
Middle tells me that O'Paddy Sr reckons there are more stringent restrictions on the way in Ireland, As our woman on the ground as it were Sugar Kane have you heard rumours of that?


----------



## platinumsage (Dec 21, 2021)

Spain really boosting their booster rollout. 

Netherlands can't be arsed.


----------



## elbows (Dec 21, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> Spain really boosting their booster rollout.
> 
> Netherlands can't be arsed.


Sounds like they originally planned to stick to a 7 month gap between previous dose and booster, fuck knows what happened since then, apart from their timing already being too badly fucked up to use the boosters for heavy mitigation right now, so they've gone for lockdown instead.

eg see this from earlier in December:









						'All over-60s should have booster vaccines as soon as possible' - DutchNews.nl
					

The head of the Dutch acute care association, Ernst Kuipers, has urged the government to speed up the vaccine booster campaign to reduce the impact of the Omicron variant of coronavirus. Kuipers said everyone over 60 should be offered a third dose as soon as possible, rather than wait until...




					www.dutchnews.nl


----------



## The39thStep (Dec 21, 2021)

New restrictions , well a tinkering , announced in Portugal . 87% are fully vaccinated and the booster is now reaching the under 60s . However Portugal has lots of emigrants returning to Portugal for the festive season and omicron is a real threat. 

Masks inside cafes , on public transport and shops have been compulsory all year so the new measures are : 

From midnight Saturday, working from home will be mandatory and discotheques and bars will be closed. The measures will be in effect at least through Jan. 9.

A negative test result must be shown to enter cinemas, theaters, sports events, weddings and baptisms during that period.

For Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, as well as New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, a negative test result will be required to enter restaurants and year-end public celebrations.

And on New Year’s Eve, no more than 10 people can gather in the street, and drinking alcohol outdoors will be prohibited


----------



## Edie (Dec 22, 2021)

So far so good 🤞🏻 Incredible graphs showing the absolute triumph of the vaccine. Brilliant stuff 🇬🇧 

(Appreciate that given the incubation lag might be a _little_ early, end of next week if the hospitalisation and death graphs still looking reasonably flat, what a great result).



Also feel the Gov have judged this wave pretty much bang on with the balance between living, livelihoods and civil liberties and protection against infectious disease. We’ll see what emerges over next few weeks mind.


----------



## Doctor Carrot (Dec 22, 2021)

Edie said:


> So far so good 🤞🏻 Incredible graphs showing the absolute triumph of the vaccine. Brilliant stuff 🇬🇧
> 
> (Appreciate that given the incubation lag might be a _little_ early, end of next week if the hospitalisation and death graphs still looking reasonably flat, what a great result).
> 
> ...


I can't actually tell what's sarcasm or not anymore. All I would say is look at what sage, indy sage, a whole boatload of academics and NHS managers and staff are predicting. It's more or less universal that if we continue with plan B it's going to be a shit show for hospitalisations. The lag you talk about will really start to show up in early January.


----------



## Edie (Dec 22, 2021)

Doctor Carrot said:


> I can't actually tell what's sarcasm or not anymore. All I would say is look at what sage, indy sage, a whole boatload of academics and NHS managers and staff are predicting. It's more or less universal that if we continue with plan B it's going to be a shit show for hospitalisations. The lag you talk about will really start to show up in early January.


Yes maybe


----------



## Doctor Carrot (Dec 22, 2021)

Edie said:


> Yes maybe


I, of course, hope what you say is right but my optomism wears thin. My main concern is that the NHS is going to be a smoking ruin after this wave and the privatisation vultures will really swoop in then.


----------



## Edie (Dec 22, 2021)

Doctor Carrot said:


> I, of course, hope what you say is right but my optomism wears thin. My main concern is that the NHS is going to be a smoking ruin after this wave and the privatisation vultures will really swoop in then.


The NHS is completely broken already, this wave or any other makes no odds on that front.


----------



## Flavour (Dec 22, 2021)

When did you become a full on tory, Edie?


----------



## two sheds (Dec 22, 2021)

Edie said:


> The NHS is completely broken already, this wave or any other makes no odds on that front.


Makes quite a bit of a difference to doctors and nurses and other NHS staff. You make it sound as if they're not important.


----------



## 2hats (Dec 22, 2021)

2hats said:


> (whole thread worth reading)



It's that time of the year again...


----------



## LDC (Dec 22, 2021)

Edie said:


> The NHS is completely broken already, this wave or any other makes no odds on that front.



You _really _think that Edie? By that logic the whole pandemic has made no difference then? And you really think another wave as bad as the last makes not one bit of difference to the long term prospects of staff and the organisation, even in terms of having a load of people (inc. staff) with long term covid related conditions to manage? It's also not what most of the management etc. say is it? I can't work out is your position is hopefully optimistic or pessimistic!


----------



## magneze (Dec 22, 2021)

2hats said:


> It's that time of the year again...



That's brilliant 😆


----------



## Miss-Shelf (Dec 22, 2021)

Edie said:


> So far so good 🤞🏻 Incredible graphs showing the absolute triumph of the vaccine. Brilliant stuff 🇬🇧
> 
> (Appreciate that given the incubation lag might be a _little_ early, end of next week if the hospitalisation and death graphs still looking reasonably flat, what a great result).
> 
> ...


  Hospitality and live theatre and music are fucked because of all the business lost in December to the soft lockdown/ too many people isolating with covid
Government messages caused a soft lockdown but they didn't call it and so they don't have to pay for it 

How is that bang on with the balance?


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (Dec 22, 2021)

Edie said:


> The NHS is completely broken already, this wave or any other makes no odds on that front.


What a load of crap. The NHS treats the entire country free of charge at the point of use, day in, day out. G.P.'s, cottage hospitals, A&E, ambulances, midwives, and all the major hospitals up and down the country. Treatment is available for every possible ailment and injury. Plus all the COVID treatment and vaccinations. Are there huge waiting lists? Yes. Is it underfunded? Yes. Do the Tories want to privatise it and make money out of other people's misery? Yes. But broken? No.


----------



## elbows (Dec 22, 2021)

Edie said:


> So far so good 🤞🏻 Incredible graphs showing the absolute triumph of the vaccine. Brilliant stuff 🇬🇧
> 
> (Appreciate that given the incubation lag might be a _little_ early, end of next week if the hospitalisation and death graphs still looking reasonably flat, what a great result).
> 
> ...


The third wave was the Delta wave from the summer!

So you arent even looking at the current Omicron wave in those charts!


----------



## Edie (Dec 22, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> You _really _think that Edie? By that logic the whole pandemic has made no difference then? And you really think another wave as bad as the last makes not one bit of difference to the long term prospects of staff and the organisation, even in terms of having a load of people (inc. staff) with long term covid related conditions to manage? It's also not what most of the management etc. say is it? I can't work out is your position is hopefully optimistic or pessimistic!


I guess what I meant was that in the complete absence of the pandemic, the NHS had still stopped safely functioning. Not that the pandemic hasn’t accelerated the final decline.

I’m terribly pessimistic I’m afraid. My view is that the NHS- as a semi functional service- is at times more dangerous than no health service at all. As a grim analogy, if you don’t expect an ambulance to come you wouldn’t lie on the ground whilst dying.

Mental health services- more dangerous missing severe ED and self harm than if the patient had remained in primary care. Kids sitting for years on waiting lists with no treatment or support, or triaged out despite being desperately in need of help.

Primary care- essentially triaging the old, infirm and mentally ill out by setting such absurd obstacles to get one of the too few appointments.

Secondary care management of long term conditions- insufficient or incomplete monitoring inc of cytotoxic drugs such as methotrexate or monoclonal antibodies cos appointments get lost/dropped/can’t get phlebotomy.

Secondary care surgical- delay in procedures causing excess mortality in pretty much every specialty.

Ambulance service- effectively non operational, with exception of Cat As. Elderly patients triaged as Cat C lying for upwards of 6 hours with fractured neck of femur etc.

I don’t think the NHS can or should be resuscitated in it’s current form tho.


----------



## Edie (Dec 22, 2021)

Kevbad the Bad said:


> What a load of crap. The NHS treats the entire country free of charge at the point of use, day in, day out. G.P.'s, cottage hospitals, A&E, ambulances, midwives, and all the major hospitals up and down the country. Treatment is available for every possible ailment and injury. Plus all the COVID treatment and vaccinations. Are there huge waiting lists? Yes. Is it underfunded? Yes. Do the Tories want to privatise it and make money out of other people's misery? Yes. But broken? No.


NHS angels.


----------



## two sheds (Dec 22, 2021)

NHS angels being worked into the fucking ground  

You'd prefer the American model? Because that's where we're headed with the tories now.


----------



## elbows (Dec 22, 2021)

It still saves a lot more people than it kills. Peaks of nasty pandemic waves just starts to hint at what level of mortality we could expect with no health service, and the effects on overall mortality figures under such conditions are not subtle. They would still be dwarfed by what the figures would actually look like with no health service though.

For sure specific patients do die as a result of service failings. And some ridiculous percentage of hospital admissions are caused by prescribed drugs. A case can also be made that plenty of people are left with less dignity intact than if there had been no NHS to treat them. But still, overall so much better than no health service existing.

Perfectly salvageable if the will, the funding and the time was allowed to bring the NHS up to scratch. Other parts of the state need fixing too though, so that everything isnt reduced to fire-fighting, where services end up dealing with people once its already too late, once they've already been failed by services that should have helped them long before the person reached the stage of acute crisis. We dont intervene early enough or effectively enough.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 22, 2021)

What has any of this to do with this, worldwide news, thread?


----------



## Edie (Dec 22, 2021)

two sheds said:


> NHS angels being worked into the fucking ground
> 
> You'd prefer the American model? Because that's where we're headed with the tories now.


No of course not, the American model is wildly costly and results in excessive litigation despite damaging over investigation. And that’s the good side, the bad is of course people just dying due to not having money.

I’m in favour of the German system myself. What’s your view?


----------



## Edie (Dec 22, 2021)

elbows said:


> The third wave was the Delta wave from the summer!
> 
> So you arent even looking at the current Omicron wave in those charts!


Good job I’m not an epidemiologist!


----------



## Doctor Carrot (Dec 22, 2021)

Should probably start an 'Is the NHS fucked?' thread complete with poll.


----------



## two sheds (Dec 22, 2021)

Edie said:


> No of course not, the American model is wildly costly and results in excessive litigation despite damaging over investigation. And that’s the good side, the bad is of course people just dying due to not having money.
> 
> I’m in favour of the German system myself. What’s your view?


The NHS has been underfunded, nurses and other staff have been underpaid and overworked for years.

We should be looking at how different countries deal better and get better results with specific treatments, particularly where it's underperforming like mental health and social care.

The main problem has been the underfunding though. A few years ago the NHS came out top of national health performance internationally. The tories want to run it into the ground so that people say "the NHS is broken we need to replace it with something else", and that something else isn't going to be the German system it's going to be sold off to American corporations which are going to bleed the system dry, preparing for the American privatized insurance system.

And I really don't think it helps to sneer at "NHS angels"


----------



## Edie (Dec 22, 2021)

two sheds said:


> The NHS has been underfunded, nurses and other staff have been underpaid and overworked for years.
> 
> We should be looking at how different countries deal better and get better results with specific treatments, particularly where it's underperforming like mental health and social care.
> 
> ...


We don’t disagree. 

I wasn’t sneering at NHS angels. It was a comment about how the deification of the NHS is one of the political tools used by those in charge to prevent reasonable scrutiny and the population holding the service to account. Let’s just clap instead.


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (Dec 22, 2021)

Edie said:


> NHS angels.


I presume you are being sarcastic here. My son works in the NHS and he's no angel. Nor are many others who work there. That's not the point. Mismanagement, top-down reorganisation, directives from the centre, partial privatisations, deliberately ignoring local and regional viewpoints, asset stripping. It's this sort of thing that undermines the health service. And it's no good saying it needs reorganising under this shambles of a government. If they reorganise the NHS they will privatise as much as they can get away with, and then when things get worse they'll privatise even more.


----------



## elbows (Dec 22, 2021)

It is certainly true that 'dont criticse the NHS' attitudes are cynically used to hide a multitude of failures. Including failures during the pandemic. Plenty of those failures were due to a lack of capacity leading to desperate decisions. Infection control failures, failures to protect staff, treatment failures, failure to admit all those who required hospital care (especially in the first wave). Desperate management attempts to reduce bed-blocking led to many care home deaths.

In addition to bad flaws within the NHS itself, issues with the price of drugs and issues with the wider care system and an ageing population have pushed more and more problems into the path of the NHS. Likewise hospitals have to deal with increased pressure caused by failures in other parts of the health care system. One of the more obvious recent examples was failures with the GP system leading to much greater pressure on A&E this summer.


----------



## kabbes (Dec 22, 2021)

I was assuming that the "NHS angels" response was a dig at the way that a hero narrative is used by government to subvert the need to properly fund the service.  Just call them "angels" and "heroes" and then you don't need to treat the workers like everyday workers.  In fact, you are actualising their angel and hero identities by creating the context within which they can perform them.  It's not a dig at the NHS workers themselves.


----------



## Edie (Dec 22, 2021)

Flavour said:


> When did you become a full on tory, Edie?


I’ve just spotted this, unluckily for you because your card is now marked son (yours too @l’Otters )   I’m not a full on Tory, I’m not even a _part_ Tory. Unless you think healthcare free at the point of delivery is a right wing idea, which some Tories might argue and Liberals certainly would claim.

I’m also up for some robust debate and people challenging what they think and say, and the uninformed rubbish trotted out by Kevbad the Bad  (lovely chap) is really symptomatic of the poverty of thought about healthcare in this country.

I also work insane hours on the wards so there’s that too. Does tend to colour your view when your employer is an exploitative fucking shitbag


----------



## Edie (Dec 22, 2021)

kabbes said:


> I was assuming that the "NHS angels" response was a dig at the way that a hero narrative is used by government to subvert the need to properly fund the service.  Just call them "angels" and "heroes" and then you don't need to treat the workers like everyday workers.  In fact, you are actualising their angel and hero identities by creating the context within which they can perform them.  It's not a dig at the NHS workers themselves.


This


----------



## Sweet FA (Dec 22, 2021)

Dunno what Edie's said that's so outrageous tbh. The NHS is fucked and was fucked before covid.


----------



## BristolEcho (Dec 22, 2021)

Edie said:


> This


And all health and social care workers across the board. "You must get so much fulfillment from your job" yes I do, but fuck off.


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (Dec 22, 2021)

Edie said:


> I’ve just spotted this, unluckily for you because your card is now marked son (yours too @l’Otters )  I’m not a full on Tory, I’m not even a _part_ Tory. Unless you think healthcare free at the point of delivery is a right wing idea, which some Tories might argue and Liberals certainly would claim.
> 
> I’m also up for some robust debate and people challenging what they think and say, and the uninformed rubbish trotted out by Kevbad the Bad  (lovely chap) is really symptomatic of the poverty of thought about healthcare in this country.
> 
> I also work insane hours on the wards so there’s that too. Does tend to colour your view when your employer is an exploitative fucking shitbag


I'm glad you think I'm lovely. But I'd like to know where my rubbish is uninformed.


----------



## T & P (Dec 22, 2021)

Spain has made wearing masks outdoors mandatory again. I visited family in late October and even though it wasn’t mandatory then, easily two thirds of pedestrians of all ages were still wearing them.

Imagine trying to introduce a mandatory outdoors mask rule here, when a sizeable chunk of the population don’t even comply on buses or the Tube…

It also helps that the police there have a zero tolerance policy towards anyone spotted no wearing a mask, or even wearing it incorrectly. In here, you’d be an unlikely bastard if you don’t ever wear one, get seen by coppers every day, and get fined even just once a year.


----------



## spring-peeper (Dec 22, 2021)

Canada never lifted the mask requirement.

Officials say that it would be mid March at the earliest.


----------



## spring-peeper (Dec 23, 2021)

Bottom line - we are a different country!!!









						Trudeau, Freeland push back at Biden on COVID-19 holiday gatherings
					

The Trudeau government pushed backed Wednesday at U.S. President Joe Biden's televised message to vaccinated Americans that they can gather safely for the holidays despite the spread of the Omicron variant.




					www.cp24.com
				






> The Trudeau government is pushing back at U.S. President Joe Biden's televised message to vaccinated Americans that they can gather safely for the holidays despite the spread of the Omicron variant.
> 
> Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and top health officials are urging Canadians to limit contacts during the holidays to control the spread of COVID-19 and ease effects on exhausted front-line health workers.
> 
> ...


----------



## MrCurry (Dec 23, 2021)

The Swedish attitude to face masks makes no sense. They came out with fresh restrictions which start today which only include recommendations to use face masks on public transport “when crowded”.  Nothing about shops or other public spaces.

FHM were asked by journalists why they don’t recommend face masks and the answer was a fairly lame “we don’t think they are as effective as keeping distance between people and avoiding public spaces”. It was pointed out that you can do both, and the response was “well for some people it’s difficult to use a mask”. 

I mean they really are idiots.  The statistics won’t tell the true story of how well the Swedish covid strategy fared because I see all over Facebook people complaining they can’t get tests.  The testing capacity here is overwhelmed and the plentiful, free test kits you have in the U.K. just don’t exist. So they’re reporting low figures of cases but the truth is hidden.

I‘m staying home and keeping my head down.


----------



## LDC (Dec 23, 2021)

Edie said:


> I guess what I meant was that in the complete absence of the pandemic, the NHS had still stopped safely functioning. Not that the pandemic hasn’t accelerated the final decline.
> 
> I’m terribly pessimistic I’m afraid. My view is that the NHS- as a semi functional service- is at times more dangerous than no health service at all. As a grim analogy, if you don’t expect an ambulance to come you wouldn’t lie on the ground whilst dying.
> 
> ...



Would like to reply to that Edie, but yeah, not the right thread. There is an NHS specific one somewhere, might cut and paste this and reply there if can be arsed later today!


----------



## teqniq (Dec 23, 2021)

Hmmmm, well here's hoping....









						US Army Creates Single Vaccine Against All COVID & SARS Variants, Researchers Say
					

Within weeks, Walter Reed researchers expect to announce that human trials show success against Omicron—and even future strains.




					www.defenseone.com


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 23, 2021)

teqniq said:


> Hmmmm, well here's hoping....
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The link with the US Army, would fuel the loons even more.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Dec 23, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> The link with the US Army, would will fuel the loons even more.


ftfy


----------



## Supine (Dec 23, 2021)

.


----------



## Badgers (Dec 24, 2021)

Fairly grim news in NYC


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 24, 2021)

'Only' 127 cases, and a city of 13 million has been locked down in China.



> Up to 13 million people have been placed into lockdown in the city of Xi’an in China, as authorities move to clamp down on the community spread of Covid-19 after 127 infections were found in a second round of mass testing.
> 
> The snap lockdown on Thursday comes little over a month before Beijing is set to host the Winter Olympics.
> 
> All residents in Xi’an are barred from leaving their houses except to buy living necessities every other day or for emergencies, while travel to and from the city is suspended save for in exceptional circumstances requiring official approval. All non-essential businesses have also been closed.











						China locks down 13 million people in Xi’an after detecting 127 Covid cases
					

Snap lockdown, which prompted panic in the city, comes little over a month before Beijing is set to host the Winter Olympics




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## sparkybird (Dec 24, 2021)

Mandatory to wear a face mask outside  as well from today in Spain, although I'd say that 70% of people were already doing it.
Catalunya trying to go through the courts to introduce other measures such as curfews and stopping any non essential night time activities.


----------



## Badgers (Dec 24, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> 'Only' 127 cases, and a city of 13 million has been locked down in China.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


😲


----------



## IC3D (Dec 24, 2021)

One member per household allowed out every other day for food..fun times.


----------



## Flavour (Dec 24, 2021)

Do we have any reliable data on vaccination rates in China?


----------



## Combustible (Dec 24, 2021)

Flavour said:


> Do we have any reliable data on vaccination rates in China?


A couple of days ago I saw it was at 82% having 2 doses, I'm not sure what age range that covers but it apparently corresponds to 1.1 billion people.


----------



## Badgers (Dec 24, 2021)

Miserable 



> Passengers travelling home for Christmas have been hit with disruption worldwide after airline companies cancelled more than 3,000 flights on Friday, according to a flight tracking website.
> 
> The surge of Christmas Eve cancellations came as the rapidly spreading Omicron coronavirus variant meant carriers were unable to staff their flight s.


----------



## _Russ_ (Dec 24, 2021)

Badgers said:


> Miserable


The Weather isnt helping much, least not here is Swansea (low cloud drizzle rain for ages)

Anyway Happy midwinter whatever


----------



## 20Bees (Dec 25, 2021)

Flavour said:


> Do we have any reliable data on vaccination rates in China?


My son is a teacher in northern China and had two doses of Sinopharm, arranged by his employers. His Chinese wife (33) has not been able to get any vaccine yet.

Five cases of delta were found in their province in October and various communities were locked down when potential close contacts of those cases were identified - residents were not allowed to leave their apartment block for 14 days even into the gated community grounds.

ETA we just spoke, his wife was actually advised not to get vaccinated during pregnancy and to wait until she has stopped breastfeeding


----------



## nagapie (Dec 27, 2021)

My family have started testing positive over the last week both in Gauteng and Cape Town. Which anecdotally makes it seem like Omicron is still peaking, none of them have tested positive in the other waves, even though I believe data suggests the peak is over. Luckily they are all double vaxxed.


----------



## Edie (Dec 29, 2021)

Doctor Carrot said:


> I can't actually tell what's sarcasm or not anymore. All I would say is look at what sage, indy sage, a whole boatload of academics and NHS managers and staff are predicting. It's more or less universal that if we continue with plan B it's going to be a shit show for hospitalisations. The lag you talk about will really start to show up in early January.


This turned out to be… wrong.


----------



## Raheem (Dec 29, 2021)

Edie said:


> This turned out to be… wrong.


What happened in early January turned out to be wrong in late December?


----------



## Edie (Dec 29, 2021)

Raheem said:


> What happened in early January turned out to be wrong in late December?


Given the incubation of covid isn’t measured in multiples of weeks, I don’t understand why it would be necessary to wait until for 2+ weeks to see an increase in deaths or hospitalisations due to omicron? In fact, my initial post where I consider the vaccines impact in decoupling serious illness and death from incidence seems on the money. The graphs for new infections and deaths/hospitalisation in wave 3 are not linked in the way they were last year.

I’m really struggling to see what people are getting out of hysterical scaremongering now. It’s almost like you _want_ us to be in the grips of it all with people dying and terrified and reality isn’t meeting your dire prediction


----------



## extra dry (Dec 29, 2021)

stats and numbers 28th dec 2021


----------



## redsquirrel (Dec 29, 2021)

FFS that's a half hour video.

The site rules specifically say don't just post up shit that you can't even be bothered to summarise. This isn't Twitter


----------



## extra dry (Dec 29, 2021)

redsquirrel said:


> FFS that's a half hour video.
> 
> The site rules specifically say don't just post up shit that you can't even be bothered to summarise. This isn't Twitter


Basically high numbers of infections, low numbers of people in hospital, people are getting mild flu like symptoms.


----------



## LDC (Dec 29, 2021)

Edie said:


> Given the incubation of covid isn’t measured in multiples of weeks, I don’t understand why it would be necessary to wait until for 2+ weeks to see an increase in deaths or hospitalisations due to omicron? In fact, my initial post where I consider the vaccines impact in decoupling serious illness and death from incidence seems on the money. The graphs for new infections and deaths/hospitalisation in wave 3 are not linked in the way they were last year.
> 
> I’m really struggling to see what people are getting out of hysterical scaremongering now. It’s almost like you _want_ us to be in the grips of it all with people dying and terrified and reality isn’t meeting your dire prediction



Edie there were 129,000 infections yesterday that haven't had the time to develop serious illness or die, and the numbers of infections are still going up.

Yes, to a large extent severe illness and death have been de-linked by the vaccine, but not for everyone. As said above I'm much less clear about restrictions this time, but given plenty of countries are bringing them in again I think you're being over optimistic in the face of the reality.

And hospitalisations in London are increasing btw, and they're ahead of us. Have you seen the emails saying the peak up here is much later, late January or even later?

FWIW this place has always been slightly out-of-step with more general levels of understanding and caution in my wider circle, but now it's even more so, here is very significantly more cautious and concerned.

Also think we're not far off no more restrictions at all tbh (bar some wild card again) which is going to be difficult for people that are CEV and/or very worried about catching it as I think getting infected will be an inevitability rather than a possibility, and it'll be down to being vaccinated, personal risk management, and a bit of luck which will be hard.

This is also worldwide news, so the wrong thread for all this chatter.

E2A: An underrated and not talked about enough aspect of why we have the positions and outlooks we do in this pandemic relates to our personalities and politics, and we should be aware of these when we are thinking through how we see the data and our predictions etc. I do think there's a tendency of HCPs to sometimes be a bit blase as well as we see so much illness etc. day-to-day. Not aimed at you Edie, have been chatting about this stuff, and thought could stick it in here since it came up tangentially!


----------



## LDC (Dec 29, 2021)

extra dry said:


> Basically high numbers of infections, low numbers of people in hospital, people are getting mild flu like symptoms.



You keep doing this shit with videos, can you fucking stop it. Also he's a dubious source of reliable information.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 29, 2021)

Edie said:


> Given the incubation of covid isn’t measured in multiples of weeks, I don’t understand why it would be necessary to wait until for 2+ weeks to see an increase in deaths or hospitalisations due to omicron? In fact, my initial post where I consider the vaccines impact in decoupling serious illness and death from incidence seems on the money. The graphs for new infections and deaths/hospitalisation in wave 3 are not linked in the way they were last year.
> 
> I’m really struggling to see what people are getting out of hysterical scaremongering now. It’s almost like you _want_ us to be in the grips of it all with people dying and terrified and reality isn’t meeting your dire prediction



I am certainly not is any way into 'hysterical scaremongering' right now, because I simply don't know how bad this wave will be, in fact no one really does, not even the UK government, who still will not rule out more restrictions coming in as early as next week, so I am also unconvinced about your optimism. I posted yesterday in the UK covid thread that the bigger problem this time could be NHS staff sickness, on top of increasing demand.

All our neighbours have or are introducing more restrictions - Ireland, NI, Scotland, Wales, France, Belgium, Holland, Germany and many more across mainland Europe - the idea that all those countries have got it wrong, and little old England has by a stroke of luck called it right, just seems a giant leap of faith to me.

Dragging this thread further back onto the 'worldwide news discussion' topic, the WHO remains very concerned as to how things will unfold across Europe.



> The World Health Organization has warned that the Omicron coronavirus variant could lead to overwhelmed healthcare systems even though early studies suggest it sparks milder disease. The WHO warned against complacency even though preliminary findings suggest that Omicron could lead to milder disease.
> 
> WHO Europe’s Covid incident manager, Catherine Smallwood, warned: "A rapid growth of Omicron … even if combined with a slightly milder disease, will still result in large numbers of hospitalisations, particularly amongst unvaccinated groups, and cause widespread disruption to health systems and other critical services.”
> 
> ...



So, I remain 'concerned' until we see how this plays out over the next few weeks.


----------



## _Russ_ (Dec 29, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> You keep doing this shit with videos, can you fucking stop it. Also he's a dubious source of reliable information.


I watched it all, I have watched most of his Covid stuff and since Omicron appeared he has gone off on one and consistantly says things like "a small increase in hospitalisations" whilst pointing to a graph with really quite high increases.
In short he made an early very bold guess on Omicron's path and is now fitting his words to that appraisal no matter the Data in front of him (not saying there isnt good things in the data but he is skewing it)


----------



## Yossarian (Dec 29, 2021)

Isn't there still usually a lag of around two weeks between somebody first showing symptoms and them being hospitalised? 

So the impact of the omicron surge should become more apparent over the next week or so - of course the news everybody wants to see is that "gloomy, doom-mongering scientists" were wrong, new restrictions were an overreaction, there's light at the end of the tunnel, etc. etc., but that definitely hasn't been the pattern so far in the pandemic.


----------



## Doctor Carrot (Dec 29, 2021)

Edie said:


> This turned out to be… wrong.


Not yet it hasn't.


----------



## Doctor Carrot (Dec 29, 2021)

Edie said:


> Given the incubation of covid isn’t measured in multiples of weeks, I don’t understand why it would be necessary to wait until for 2+ weeks to see an increase in deaths or hospitalisations due to omicron? In fact, my initial post where I consider the vaccines impact in decoupling serious illness and death from incidence seems on the money. The graphs for new infections and deaths/hospitalisation in wave 3 are not linked in the way they were last year.
> 
> I’m really struggling to see what people are getting out of hysterical scaremongering now. It’s almost like you _want_ us to be in the grips of it all with people dying and terrified and reality isn’t meeting your dire prediction


 I'm really struggling to see why people think that unless everything is back to 2019 life then it's all just hysterical scaremongering.

I also struggle to see how people now, still, 2 years into this, think that as long as people aren't dying in significant numbers than everything is just fine to go back to 2019. Nevermind the fact that current daily death rates from this one infectious disease equate to around 55000 deaths a year anyway, something I think should be unacceptable in an industrially developed 21st century society but hey ho it's all just scaremongering.


----------



## extra dry (Dec 29, 2021)

So, I guess john c can f off to fu*k with his charts, interviews, messages and videos from other healthcare people, doctors, and the vaccine tracker data is all made up then?  For two years he has been feeding everyone false data?


----------



## elbows (Dec 29, 2021)

People that are consistently 100% wrong and full of shit are much easier to detect and dismiss. Those who offer a more complicated mix of right and wrong are a trickier proposition to decode. I dont recommend him because I dont like his style or emphasis, but I havent spent enough time watching his videos to offer my own detailed interpretation of his agenda, weaknesses, strengths. He was never my cup of tea so I've been ignoring him since quite early on. Clearly there have been occasions where something he has said has set off some peoples alarm bells and they've gone off him.


----------



## _Russ_ (Dec 29, 2021)

extra dry said:


> So, I guess john c can f off to fu*k with his charts, interviews, messages and videos from other healthcare people, doctors, and the vaccine tracker data is all made up then?  For two years he has been feeding everyone false data?


No he just sometimes says things that are at odds with the data that is actually on the screen when he is saying it.
He has stuck his neck out over Omicron and I think he realises himself that he was a bit too bold  I sincerely hope  his initial almost joyous slant on Omicron proves right but I doubt it


----------



## elbows (Dec 29, 2021)

Edie said:


> Given the incubation of covid isn’t measured in multiples of weeks, I don’t understand why it would be necessary to wait until for 2+ weeks to see an increase in deaths or hospitalisations due to omicron? In fact, my initial post where I consider the vaccines impact in decoupling serious illness and death from incidence seems on the money. The graphs for new infections and deaths/hospitalisation in wave 3 are not linked in the way they were last year.
> 
> I’m really struggling to see what people are getting out of hysterical scaremongering now. It’s almost like you _want_ us to be in the grips of it all with people dying and terrified and reality isn’t meeting your dire prediction


Even the government had to admit in the past that it was not credible to claim that the link between infections and hospitalisations/deaths had been completely broken. Its never broken, there is still a relationship, its just the ratio changes. And vaccines and treatments and changes to the virus itself can lead to a very substantial change to this ratio. Even then they still expect the number of hospitalisations to increase when the number of cases increases, its just that they hope the hospitalisation increase is far less dramatic than seen in the past.

Regarding 'hysterical scaremongering', the point you and some others seem to miss is that the UK establishment itself has still felt the need to lay on some heavy mood music and encourage massive changes to behaviour this winter. Yes people like me go further, but you are really making a big mistake if you try to ignore the fact that the authorities themselves have still required people to change their behaviour and contact mixing patterns in order for them to think we have a good chance of everything remaining within tolerable thresholds this time around.

Eventually they will want to change that too. At some point they will try to move away from the current levels of testing and change the self-isolation rules, and they will seek to end the cycle of scary mood music that they have made use of for entirely sensible public health reasons. If Omicron doesnt go too badly then they may attempt that as early as this easter perhaps. And then things will have moved on to something a bit more compatible with the view you are coming out with now.


----------



## elbows (Dec 29, 2021)

Yossarian said:


> Isn't there still usually a lag of around two weeks between somebody first showing symptoms and them being hospitalised?
> 
> So the impact of the omicron surge should become more apparent over the next week or so - of course the news everybody wants to see is that "gloomy, doom-mongering scientists" were wrong, new restrictions were an overreaction, there's light at the end of the tunnel, etc. etc., but that definitely hasn't been the pattern so far in the pandemic.


In terms of the lag between positive cases showing up in the data and the resulting increase in daily hospital admissions showing up in the data, in the past the gap has only been about a week, although we may need to add a few more days to that to account for delays in the data actually being published publicly.

We are well into the zone where Londons dramatic increase in cases should filter into the hospitalisations picture. I'm not rushing to judgement because we also need to allow for the fact that cases in older age groups rose a bit later than cases in younger age groups, and I also need to take into account Christmas disruption to quality of data available, both on the testing and hospital front.

Personally if I dont see sustained rises in the next 3 days worth of hospital admissions data for the London region, I'm going to allow myself to become a bit more optimistic, with caveats. I wont reach conclusions, but I will suggest that things are starting to point at a particular outcome for that region at least, and I'll then want to see those signs sustained for the subsequent week or two.


----------



## Doctor Carrot (Dec 29, 2021)

extra dry said:


> So, I guess john c can f off to fu*k with his charts, interviews, messages and videos from other healthcare people, doctors, and the vaccine tracker data is all made up then?  For two years he has been feeding everyone false data?


I found him very useful in the first year but he started to go a bit nutty talking about ivermectin and heart problems with vaccines. It made me feel queasy and it attracted a weird crowd of freaks. He also went way too early on omicron saying how mild it is and it's all good news coming out of South Africa which, even if it does appear to now be true, it was still grossly irresponsible. 

One thing that really bugs me is people saying '_it won't be that bad you're worrying about nothing_' I've heard it since the beginning. All said without having a clue as to whether that will be true or not. The government haven't known and still don't about omicron. They have taken a gamble with people's health and our health service. That's wreckless governance. If they turn out to be right so be it but it's still a gamble and I don't wanna be governed by wreckless gamblers in a pandemic.


----------



## elbows (Dec 29, 2021)

Some people also end up coming out with crap about 'the scientists were wrong', even though the modelling covers a range of scenarios and is quite clear about what parameters they play with in each scenario. Hence they are not delivering single fixed predictions about what will happen, they are not predictions of the sort that newspaper headlines make it sound like they are! The media fixate on single numbers, most of the modelling is actually about broad ranges. And the modelling is not a simple prediction because they do not usually attempt to model changes in peoples behaviours that are caused by mood music etc, they tend to model behavioural changes in very simplistic ways and only as part of scenarios where new formal restrictions come in on certain dates.


----------



## Doctor Carrot (Dec 29, 2021)

elbows said:


> Some people also end up coming out with crap about 'the scientists were wrong', even though the modelling covers a range of scenarios and is quite clear about what parameters they play with in each scenario. Hence they are not delivering single fixed predictions about what will happen, they are not predictions of the sort that newspaper headlines make it sound like they are! Not least because they do not usually attempt to model changes in peoples behaviours that are caused by mood music etc, they tend to model behavioural changes only as part of scenarios where new formal restrictions come in on certain dates.


Yes, I hadn't quite appreciated the importance of mood music until Omicron came on the scene and how people's moderation of behaviour meant we were more or less in self imposed lockdown in the run up to Christmas.


----------



## LDC (Dec 29, 2021)

France is breaking records, over 200,000 infections recorded last 24 hours.


----------



## elbows (Dec 29, 2021)

Doctor Carrot said:


> Yes, I hadn't quite appreciated the importance of mood music until Omicron came on the scene and how people's moderation of behaviour meant we were more or less in self imposed lockdown in the run up to Christmas.


It was evident in the first big waves waves too - things like mobility data indicated that huge numbers of people took matters into their own hands well before formal restrictions came into effect. This caused wave peaks to happen sooner than would have been the case if we were relying only on formal lockdown. Unfortunately this caused some people with certain agendas to make dodgy claims about how lockdown was too late to do anything, how the wave had already peaked 'naturally' etc etc. 

We saw a different version of this with the Delta wave too - behavioural changes and school summer holidays and really large numbers of people self-isolating due to the 'pingdemic' peaked that wave. But because we didnt have more formal restrictions that time, case numbers then persisted at a high rate for many months.


----------



## Hollis (Dec 30, 2021)

Dunno if anyone else has noticed.. but certainly on twitter the scientists I follow seem to be getting very tetchy with each other the last few days... loads of bold statements on limited data?

Also I can't help notice the irony that mask wearing etc seems to have all but collapsed in my part of north london as cases go over 2000+ per day..


----------



## elbows (Dec 30, 2021)

That usually happens at this stage of a wave with all the uncertainties those waves bring. And it probably gets a bit worse each time. Some have predetermined ideas and biases about what they expect will happen, some 'centrists' have their opinions continually buffeted around depending on what data and studies came out on that particular day, and may change their minds again tomorrow, some want to stick to their guns, some are very fond of making premature claims. Its useful to look at their track record with previous waves and past claims, but this can be tedious to quickly check for on twitter if they tweet a lot every day.

And even consensus within the scientific community can be tricky to achieve, its not just a problem with the broader public, politicians and those with obvious financial or ideological agendas.

Plus plenty of people who talk about the detail on twitter are going beyond their professional specialities, so sometimes when they fall out with each other over detail and future expectations, some specialists get arsey about people 'not staying in their lane' etc.


----------



## spring-peeper (Dec 30, 2021)

Our numbers of active cases are growing.  In the past, we were always in the lower two digits. sometimes only 4 or 5 cases.

I live in North Glengarry with a population of approximately 10,000. Our health unit covers four counties.  Hawkesbury is fairly large, but Cornwall is our highest concentration of people.
Akwesasne repents half of the first nation reserve, the other side is in the States.  





I noticed that a friend in town posted that her and her boyfriend were exposed.  They took the test and will expect the results in 48 hours or so.  She spent Christmas Day at one of her daughters.  Maybe four more to the active cases?


I'm not too worried about me and Hubby, I'm the only one who goes out shopping.   I'm mega careful, I have two grandchildren and a daughter that is refusing a shot.  

We are rural....




I love my middle of nowhere!!!!


----------



## extra dry (Dec 30, 2021)

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases - Statistics and Research  more data, thats most likely wrong, right?


----------



## _Russ_ (Dec 30, 2021)

extra dry, Im not sure what you mean with this later post but re: you're earlier insistance that Dr John simply follows the Data I just looked at his new video titled:
"Most omicron hospitalisations incidental"​With the statement directly below it reading:

*Around 80% of English hospital admissions with coronavirus are admitted for other reasons*

The data he goes on to show does not  support this headline, in fact the closest e gets is to draw his own guessed line extending an existing graph that is out of date to what he thinks would happen showing a precipitous drop in non incidentals entirely of his own invention


----------



## Petcha (Dec 30, 2021)

Just had a Zoom call with some NZ colleagues. They've got one case of Omicrom in the community there which has sent the country into a bit of meltdown. Brought into the country by a UK DJ called 'DJ Dimension' who was booked to play a festival and who then broke quarantine and then went clubbing. I'd scarper quickly if I was him.


----------



## LDC (Dec 30, 2021)

extra dry said:


> Coronavirus (COVID-19) Cases - Statistics and Research  more data, thats most likely wrong, right?



You're being a dick on this thread btw.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Dec 30, 2021)

Petcha said:


> Just had a Zoom call with some NZ colleagues. They've got one case of Omicrom in the community there which has sent the country into a bit of meltdown. Brought into the country by a UK DJ called 'DJ Dimension' who was booked to play a festival and who then broke quarantine and then went clubbing. I'd scarper quickly if I was him.



What a selfish cunt.


----------



## Yossarian (Dec 30, 2021)

Petcha said:


> Just had a Zoom call with some NZ colleagues. They've got one case of Omicrom in the community there which has sent the country into a bit of meltdown. Brought into the country by a UK DJ called 'DJ Dimension' who was booked to play a festival and who then broke quarantine and then went clubbing. I'd scarper quickly if I was him.


DJ Superspreader was on his third trip to NZ since the borders were closed so I don't know how he can claim he wasn't aware of the rules.









						Covid-19: DJ Dimension on third border exemption to NZ since December 2020
					

Robert Etheridge previously performed in New Zealand in December 2020 and July 2021, being let in under the “other critical worker border exception”.




					www.stuff.co.nz


----------



## teuchter (Dec 30, 2021)

Petcha said:


> broke quarantine and then went clubbing


According to him that's not exactly what happened.


----------



## Petcha (Dec 30, 2021)

How is a DJ a 'critical worker'?!   That's pushing it.


----------



## Petcha (Dec 30, 2021)

teuchter said:


> According to him that's not exactly what happened.
> 
> View attachment 303717



As I understand it he had to do 7 days in some kind of facility then 3 days at home - he left after two before he got his results back



> Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins says it is “disappointing” a UK musician, who has tested positive for the Omicron variant of Covid-19, left self-isolation before receiving his test results.
> 
> Hipkins said the person clearly didn’t follow the rules, which he said were there for a reason.
> 
> ...


----------



## teuchter (Dec 30, 2021)

What's NZ's current strategy anyway?
It seems they are now pretty much fully vaccinated. Unless they are still pursuing a zero Covid strategy (and I thought they'd said they wouldn't once people were vaccinated) at some point surely they are going to have to accept that Omicron is going to circulate widely?


----------



## Yossarian (Dec 30, 2021)

teuchter said:


> According to him that's not exactly what happened.
> 
> View attachment 303717



NZ rules say the 10-day isolation period is the _minimum_ - DJ Brainbox should maybe have figured out that it wasn't a great idea to leave isolation and go clubbing while he was waiting for the results of a COVID test.


----------



## Petcha (Dec 30, 2021)

teuchter said:


> What's NZ's current strategy anyway?
> It seems they are now pretty much fully vaccinated. Unless they are still pursuing a zero Covid strategy (and I thought they'd said they wouldn't once people were vaccinated) at some point surely they are going to have to accept that Omicron is going to circulate widely?



No idea. It does seem a bit head in the sand. But they seem to have done a good job so far whatever the strategy is.


----------



## LDC (Dec 30, 2021)

BBC 24 news running a story from France, average age of patient in ICU is 49 and again saying that they're almost all unvaccinated.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Dec 30, 2021)

Petcha said:


> How is a DJ a 'critical worker'?!   That's pushing it.


My thought as well


----------



## extra dry (Dec 31, 2021)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> You're being a dick on this thread btw.


Sorry. I hope everyone stays safe from this strain.


----------



## teqniq (Dec 31, 2021)

Texas Team Applauded for Giving What Big Pharma Refuses: A Patent-Free Vaccine to the World


----------



## _Russ_ (Dec 31, 2021)

Good news and its already got emergency approval in India


----------



## yield (Dec 31, 2021)

teqniq said:


> Texas Team Applauded for Giving What Big Pharma Refuses: A Patent-Free Vaccine to the World


Great stuff. 

Finland had a patent-free vaccine in 2020. What happened to it?









						Coronavirus - worldwide breaking news, discussion, stats, updates and more
					

:hmm:   https://www.newscientist.com/article/2268379-two-coronavirus-variants-have-merged-heres-what-you-need-to-know/




					www.urban75.net


----------



## Indeliblelink (Dec 31, 2021)

"Flurona"
Welcome to 2022








						First case of Covid and influenza mixture dubbed 'flurona' detected in Israel
					

The Israeli health ministry is said to be studying the results to determine whether the combination of the two infections can cause more serious illness.




					metro.co.uk


----------



## spring-peeper (Jan 1, 2022)

> Ontario health officials are reporting another record-breaking number of new COVID-19 cases as more than 18,000 infections are logged on Saturday.
> 
> Public Health Ontario, which released the data, confirmed 18,445 new cases of the novel coronavirus today, surpassing the previous record of 16,713 new COVID-19 infections reported on Friday.
> 
> Ontario's rolling seven-day average has soared to 12,495, up from 5,939 at this point last week.



further breakdown of where the cases are -> Ontario reports 18,445 new COVID-19 cases, 12 more deaths


That is far too high for the premiere.  Ford has a simple solution on how to bring the numbers down - _stop testing everyone._
Now, only a very select group can be tested.  

Schools are not allowed to tell parents how many cases are in their schools.
Too many teachers missing?  No problem, get rid of the requirement that school classes stay separate.  Just put the children in any class - now the children are being looked after.
No more of this learning-from-home nonsense - only one day a week is allowed for remote learning.

People looking after the daycares for under 5's are not eligible for testing.


----------



## Doctor Carrot (Jan 1, 2022)

Indeliblelink said:


> "Flurona"
> Welcome to 2022
> 
> 
> ...


Fluvid is obviously a far superior branding.

Also you've gotta laugh at the media, across the board now, claiming people going to hospital have mild symptoms. Obviously everyone knows that hospital is your first port of call for mild illness.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 1, 2022)

teqniq said:


> Texas Team Applauded for Giving What Big Pharma Refuses: A Patent-Free Vaccine to the World


A _potential_ concern with this vaccine, Corbevax/BioE COVID-19, is that it features just RBD and not full spike. This _might_ lead to cross-variant immunogenic performance issues (to either or both infection and severe disease).





RBD-only will not stimulate antibodies, or T cell responses, to N terminal domain or S2 regions which tend to be better conserved between VOCs. Those VOCs tend to have a significant number of mutations in RBD where there is higher selective pressure. A vaccine so focused _might_ be more vulnerable to immune escape. It might also be less effective at generating some antibodies, other than largely neutralising ones, which might have significant roles in conferring degrees of protection.


----------



## brogdale (Jan 2, 2022)

Indeliblelink said:


> "Flurona"
> Welcome to 2022
> 
> 
> ...


Have a horrible feeling that we'll hear more of this portmanteau word over the next few weeks.


----------



## spring-peeper (Jan 4, 2022)

Now that Ontario will no longer fund covid tests unless you are in a specific subset, we have been given this flowchart on how to proceed.


----------



## spring-peeper (Jan 4, 2022)

I hate it when he starts his press conference with "my friends" - I am not his friend!!!

Ford claims we are in a tsunami of cases, but our infection numbers dropped.   Because we are no longer getting tested.

Anyhooos - these are our new restrictions.

_At a news conference Monday, Premier Doug Ford also announced a temporary end to indoor dining and a closure of gyms and indoor fitness facilities.

To guard against hospitals becoming overwhelmed, Ford said, the government will revert to Stage 2-style restrictions for the next three weeks.

Social gatherings will be limited to five people indoors and 10 people outdoors.

Businesses will be required to have employees work from home unless it’s necessary for them to be on site.

Retail stores, including shopping malls, and personal care services will be limited to 50 per cent capacity.  At shopping malls, physical distancing will be required in lineups and food courts must close.

Theatres, cinemas, museums and indoor event spaces will be closed._

He is such an asshole.


----------



## platinumsage (Jan 4, 2022)

This is what a zero-COVID strategy looks like with Omicron. An entire city prevented from leaving their homes even to buy food due to three asymptomatic cases:









						China: Xi'an residents in lockdown trade goods for food amid shortage
					

Supplies are low in lockdown, and some have resorted to bartering phones and gadgets for food.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				












						With Just 3 Cases, China Locks Down City Of 1.2 Million
					

More than one million people in a city in central China were being confined to their homes on Tuesday after three asymptomatic coronavirus cases were recorded in the country's latest mass lockdown.




					www.ndtv.com


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 4, 2022)

platinumsage said:


> This is what a zero-COVID strategy looks like with Omicron. An entire city prevented from leaving their homes even to buy food due to three asymptomatic cases:
> 
> 
> 
> ...



The Xi'an outbreak is delta, AFAIK - if omicron takes hold in a major city, I don't know if even China's brutal totalitarian state could turn back the clock.


----------



## Flavour (Jan 4, 2022)

That is hardcore. Fuck that.


----------



## Mation (Jan 4, 2022)

spring-peeper said:


> Now that Ontario will no longer fund covid tests unless you are in a specific subset, we have been given this flowchart on how to proceed.
> 
> View attachment 304432


Liked only because at least it's clear, not for the reduction in test funding.

A UK version would look like this:


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 4, 2022)

Taiwan, which has had a mostly successful zero COVID strategy in place since the very early days of the pandemic without the extreme lockdowns seen in China, will be one to watch - they kept the variant at bay for a while but reported the first community omicron cases yesterday.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jan 4, 2022)

Yossarian said:


> Taiwan, which has had a mostly successful zero COVID strategy in place since the very early days of the pandemic without the extreme lockdowns seen in China, will be one to watch - they kept the variant at bay for a while but reported the first community omicron cases yesterday.


I think the thing with zero covid strategies that's been clear for a while is that it's a question of when, not if, the countries with them will change tack. Like many others in that situation, Taiwan was complacent about vaccines, but it's just about up to speed now. Resisting mass death until there's a decent vaccination rate plus a less deadly variant in circulation - places like Taiwan, New Zealand, etc, could be said to have 'made it' already.


----------



## two sheds (Jan 4, 2022)

IF omicron turns out to be milder and if infection by it gives some added protection to delta, you'd imagine they'd wait and perhaps when all are boosted too, let omicron go through the population.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jan 4, 2022)

two sheds said:


> IF omicron turns out to be milder and if infection by it gives some added protection to delta, you'd imagine they'd wait and perhaps when all are boosted too, let omicron go through the population.


Taiwan's vaccination programme was so tardy that they barely need boosters yet, tbf. They didn't really get started until July.


----------



## IC3D (Jan 4, 2022)

two sheds said:


> IF omicron turns out to be milder and if infection by it gives some added protection to delta, you'd imagine they'd wait and perhaps when all are boosted too, let omicron go through the population.


I'd be cautious claiming vaccines have much effect with Omicron at all.


----------



## LDC (Jan 4, 2022)

IC3D said:


> I'd be cautious claiming vaccines have much effect with Omicron at all.



What evidence do you have for making that assertion, when that's not what is being shown generally?

You never answered any of my questions previously when you made a whole load of un-evidenced claims like this btw. Nor did you say what role you had in healthcare.


----------



## Pickman's model (Jan 4, 2022)

IC3D said:


> I'd be cautious claiming vaccines have much effect with Omicron at all.


I'd be interested to see the evidence you base your caution on


----------



## gentlegreen (Jan 4, 2022)

IC3D said:


> I'd be cautious claiming vaccines have much effect with Omicron at all.


Disingenuous twat, troll and/or moron - pick one.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jan 4, 2022)

IC3D said:


> I'd be cautious claiming vaccines have much effect with Omicron at all.


It's a complicated picture, isn't it? First you have the difference between antibodies and T-cell response. The former can prevent infection, while the latter aid fighting the infection once you're infected. So just looking at infection or reinfection rates only tells a small part of the story.

As ever with omicron, South Africa is the best place to look at right now. Early evidence shows that booster shots are having a huge effect in reducing hospitalisations. They may be much less effective in preventing infection altogether, but the main thing we want to avoid is serious illness, no? If someone still gets a cold, but it's only a cold, I call that a successful effect. 

J&J booster slashes Omicron hospitalisations -S.African study


----------



## LDC (Jan 4, 2022)

gentlegreen said:


> Disingenuous twat, troll and/or moron - pick one.



They've done this for ages. One sentence claims, never reply to any questions asking for back-up. Claims of working healthcare but never say doing what.

Either a coward, a shit stirrer, a gullible idiot, or some combination of them all.


----------



## IC3D (Jan 4, 2022)

gentlegreen said:


> Disingenuous twat, troll and/or moron - pick one.


I'll suggest why I think it may be a possibility Pickman's model but gentlegreen why are you so sure of yourself? And why are you being hostile?


----------



## gentlegreen (Jan 4, 2022)

IC3D said:


> gentlegreen why are you so sure of yourself? And why are you being hostile?


We're TWO FUCKING YEARS into this thing and even the laziest amongst us (me) has managed to absorb a little of the science osmotically ...


----------



## gentlegreen (Jan 4, 2022)

IC3D - meet a fellow traveller :-


Spoiler: detour






> (10:43:05‪) ** aquadiamond28 has joined the room **


(10:43:35‪) aquadiamond28: Bombshell: Vaccinated people are dying from autoimmune attacks against their own organs  https:// .naturalnews.com/2022-01-03-vaccinated-people-dying-from-autoimmune-attacks-against-own-organs.html



> (10:44:32‪) aquadiamond28: Autopsy analysis: 93% of post-vaccination deaths are caused by the jabs… “killer lymphocytes” attack organs like the heart and lungs  https://   www.   naturalnews.  com/2022-01-02-93percent-post-vaccination-deaths-caused-by-jabs.html





> (10:45:20‪) aquadiamond28: Shocked pharmacist who discovered that covid vaccine inserts are blank says “I shouldn’t be giving these out”  https://   www.   naturalnews.com/2022-01-03-pharmacist-covid-vaccine-inserts-blank-shouldnt-give.html
> (10:46:04‪) ** aquadiamond28 has left the room **


----------



## Brainaddict (Jan 4, 2022)

littlebabyjesus said:


> I think the thing with zero covid strategies that's been clear for a while is that it's a question of when, not if, the countries with them will change tack. Like many others in that situation, Taiwan was complacent about vaccines, but it's just about up to speed now. Resisting mass death until there's a decent vaccination rate plus a less deadly variant in circulation - places like Taiwan, New Zealand, etc, could be said to have 'made it' already.


The other thing that advantages countries that waited before allowing covid in is that much better treatments are now available than were at the beginning of the pandemic. Even if Taiwan opened up now with no restrictions, if they used the full range of vaccines, treatment knowledge and drugs available I reckon they will never approach the death rates that many European countries faced. 

What isn't known yet though is the disability rate with the omicron variant, and with vaccination and treatment for the vulnerable in play. I hope to god it's lower because it's clear that most countries are going to continue to ignore the epidemic of disability, or think that the only way to deal with it is not to avoid it but throw research money at it - which to be fair is better than ignoring it altogether, but that research will take years to come to full fruition.


----------



## IC3D (Jan 4, 2022)

gentlegreen said:


> We're TWO FUCKING YEARS into this thing and even the laziest amongst us (me) has managed to absorb a little of the science osmotically .





gentlegreen said:


> IC3D - meet a fellow traveller :-


Wtf are you posting.


----------



## IC3D (Jan 4, 2022)

I was being disingenuous. 
I wanted to point out the polarisation around discussions on the subject. 
The effacy of our primary defence against death being a subject that has created quite deep divisions and intolerance that I think will ripple beyond a Pandemic that ultimately will end soon.


----------



## gentlegreen (Jan 4, 2022)

IC3D said:


> I was being disingenuous.
> I wanted to point out the polarisation around discussions on the subject.
> The effacy of our primary defence against death being a subject that has created quite deep divisions and intolerance that I think will ripple beyond a Pandemic that ultimately will end soon.


Take it somewhere else ... (whatever the hell it is you think you mean)


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jan 4, 2022)

Brainaddict said:


> The other thing that advantages countries that waited before allowing covid in is that much better treatments are now available than were at the beginning of the pandemic. Even if Taiwan opened up now with no restrictions, if they used the full range of vaccines, treatment knowledge and drugs available I reckon they will never approach the death rates that many European countries faced.
> 
> What isn't known yet though is the disability rate with the omicron variant, and with vaccination and treatment for the vulnerable in play. I hope to god it's lower because it's clear that most countries are going to continue to ignore the epidemic of disability, or think that the only way to deal with it is not to avoid it but throw research money at it - which to be fair is better than ignoring it altogether, but that research will take years to come to full fruition.


It's producing a different set of symptoms (bronchitis rather than pneumonia is how I heard it described), and appears not to affect smell in the same way, so perhaps is not attacking the brain as much. I'm hopeful in that regard.


----------



## Brainaddict (Jan 4, 2022)

littlebabyjesus said:


> It's producing a different set of symptoms (bronchitis rather than pneumonia is how I heard it described), and appears not to affect smell in the same way, so perhaps is not attacking the brain as much. I'm hopeful in that regard.


I hope your optimism turns out to be right, but not sure the reasons you suggest are cause for optimism, given we don't know the main mechanisms that cause long covid yet. I certain don't think it's much to do with lung damage (authorities have conflated post-ICU damage with post-viral fatigue but only because there's a lot of momentum behind gas-lighting people with PVF and looking for organ damage as the cause). As for the relationship between PVF and neurological damage, we have absolutely no idea of what the relationship is, including the causal direction.

The most interesting research on it all I've seen seems to suggest a problem in many people of transferring oxygen from the blood (which is well oxygenated) into organs and muscles. If that is the case then neurological problems could be simply one side-effect of that mechanism failure.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Jan 4, 2022)

LynnDoyleCooper said:


> What evidence do you have for making that assertion, when that's not what is being shown generally?


Well I did see this earlier but I don't claim to to be knowledgeable enough to say it backs that post up.











						Mapping the antigenic diversification of SARS-CoV-2
					

Large-scale vaccination campaigns have prevented countless SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalizations and deaths. However, the emergence of variants that escape from immunity challenges the effectiveness of current vaccines. Given this continuing evolution, an important question is when and how to...




					www.medrxiv.org


----------



## elbows (Jan 4, 2022)

IC3D said:


> I'd be cautious claiming vaccines have much effect with Omicron at all.


You were ignorant enough to refer to vaccines as 'so-called vaccines' long before Omicron arrived.

You seem to treat the subject in a binary way - if vaccines cant prevent the vast majority of infections and transmission then you end up with an absurdly low opinion of them.

Omicron has eroded some of the gains of vaccination. We are still in the middle of finding out to what extent that is the case. But it is already beyond obvious that Omicrons impact on vaccinations is nowhere near enough to claim that we are back to square one, not even close.

In this complex reality, big issues that need to be grappled with going forwards do not involve a stupid binary view. Rather, they involve stuff such as whether we need to get modified versions of the vaccines into mass production, and quite how often we are expecting to have to give boosters to people, and how large a section of the population needs to receive them on a more regular basis in order for health care systems to cope. And all of this is tied into further unknowns about future variants, future waves, or whether something resembling 'endemic equilibrium' is actually achieved, and at what levels of infection and hospitalisation such a state settled on.

A current BBC major headline raises one or two of those questions, but there arent so many answers at this stage.









						Covid: Vaccines for all every four to six months not needed, says expert
					

The most vulnerable should be prioritised for further doses instead, says Prof Sir Andrew Pollard.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Jan 4, 2022)

I probably should of mentioned that boosters have been used in the short-term to restore some of what was lost via Omicron vaccine impact erosion. They may have been able to compensate for this erosion to a huge degree, its still a little early to give final thoughts on that, but the impact of boosters seems to have been highly significant.

And one of the problems we've had up till this point is that some of the easiest studies to do quickly with vaccines and new variants involve antibody levels and how they cope with Omicron. Other parts of the immune system are a bit tricker to grasp, although some such studies have now arrived, but there are still gaps in our understanding. Some of these gaps end up being filled in by real world data once we get lots of hospital data during a large wave of the variant. Some questions are answered as a result, but many future uncertainties that are a major pain in the arse remain.


----------



## platinumsage (Jan 4, 2022)

Indeliblelink said:


> Well I did see this earlier but I don't claim to to be knowledgeable enough to say it backs that post up.
> 
> 
> 
> ...




We already know that antibody responses to Omicron are much reduced with these vaccines, but that's only one part of the immune system. This sort of research has already been overtaken by other studies. These researchers appear to normally be focused on influenza, where these sorts of diagrams are very relevant to annual vaccine updates and the antigenic drift that is the hallmark of influenza viruses. I'm not sure this sort of study is so relevant when applied to coronaviruses but I guess they didn't want to pass up on the chance to get their oar in.


----------



## zahir (Jan 4, 2022)

Numbers in ICU still rising in South Africa.


----------



## a_chap (Jan 4, 2022)

Australia....


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 4, 2022)

a_chap said:


> Australia....
> 
> View attachment 304557



And after the last couple of days,  that chart is now too small.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 4, 2022)

Yossarian said:


> And after the last couple of days,  that chart is now too small.
> 
> View attachment 304561


welcome to the club Australia


----------



## Flavour (Jan 4, 2022)

I'm really bored of case number graphs now I think they're helpfulness is somewhat limited in a vaccinated world


----------



## elbows (Jan 4, 2022)

They remain an invaluable tool and there is still a relationship between cases and hospitalisations, albeit with different ratios compared to pre-vaccine part of the pandemic.


----------



## Flavour (Jan 4, 2022)

Sure, I agree, but I think posting lots of graphs of case rates jumping in countries like Australia which have given up on zero Covid, have high vax rates and now have Omicron... I just think it all feels a bit over-panicky


----------



## BristolEcho (Jan 4, 2022)

Flavour said:


> Sure, I agree, but I think posting lots of graphs of case rates jumping in countries like Australia which have given up on zero Covid, have high vax rates and now have Omicron... I just think it all feels a bit over-panicky


I find them interesting more than anything. I'm a sucker for stats and graphs though.


----------



## elbows (Jan 4, 2022)

Flavour said:


> Sure, I agree, but I think posting lots of graphs of case rates jumping in countries like Australia which have given up on zero Covid, have high vax rates and now have Omicron... I just think it all feels a bit over-panicky


Yeah I know what you mean. The switch of approach away from zero covid does make these sorts of figures newsworthy and of interest to some though. And it reflects the fact they are going to end up dealing with something incomparable to their previous experiences. I havent had time to keep an eye on many other countries during the Omicron wave yet, but I expect I will find something to drone on about in regards Australia at some point.

Lack of prior infections is also relevant when it comes to things like the combined effect of vaccines and previous infections on immunity. Although with Omicron prior infection makes less difference to superficial immunity in terms of catching it, it still may have a meaningful effect on what levels of protection from severe disease they can expect. Especially if a lot of their vaccines were given quite a long time ago and they havent had the sort of recent booster stuff we've had in the UK.

At least its summer there.


----------



## Mation (Jan 4, 2022)

Flavour said:


> Sure, I agree, but I think posting lots of graphs of case rates jumping in countries like Australia which have given up on zero Covid, have high vax rates and now have Omicron... I just think it all feels a bit over-panicky


Doesn't that depend on the commentary that goes alongside them? Well, somewhat - ideally. The graphs show the numbers, and they are starkly different to what they have been. That's noteworthy, if not automatically disastrous.


----------



## l'Otters (Jan 5, 2022)

It tells the story of what’s happening eg “this is spreading very quickly” or “this one is so many times more infectious than that one” 
& seems like what’s changed is what the story means, but what that change is isn’t clear enough; maybe it needs a second chart to make it clear what it’s ramifications are. 

I like the visual representations, easier to understand than a table of data or a paragraph explaining it in words.


----------



## cupid_stunt (Jan 5, 2022)

No mincing of words, nor any lies about the strategy. 



> Emmanuel Macron has prompted a furore after saying that his government’s vaccination strategy is to “piss off” people who have not had coronavirus jabs by continuing to make daily life more and more difficult for them.
> 
> “I am not about pissing off the French people,” the president said in an interview with readers of Le Parisien daily on Tuesday. “But as for the non-vaccinated, I really want to piss them off. And we will continue to do this, to the end. This is the strategy.”
> 
> Macron’s remarks came as the French parliament debated new legislation that, if passed, will mean only the fully vaccinated – and no longer those with a negative Covid test – will qualify for the country’s health pass from next month.





> “In a democracy, the worst enemies are lies and stupidity,” Macron said. “We are putting pressure on the unvaccinated by limiting, as much as possible, their access to activities in social life.”
> 
> France has vaccinated almost 90% of its population who are eligible, Macron said, and it was “only a very small minority who are resisting. How do we reduce that minority? We reduce it – sorry for the expression – by pissing them off even more.”











						Macron declares his Covid strategy is to ‘piss off’ the unvaccinated
					

French president stokes divisions as parliament debates tighter requirements for mandatory health pass




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 5, 2022)

Flavour said:


> Sure, I agree, but I think posting lots of graphs of case rates jumping in countries like Australia which have given up on zero Covid, have high vax rates and now have Omicron... I just think it all feels a bit over-panicky



Yeah, probably no cause for panic, Australia is still in a better position than many countries - I'm just a little amazed by the speed of the reversal in Australia, which probably resembles what case numbers in China are going to look like at some point in the near future. Another couple of days like this and Australia will have had more COVID cases in 2022 than it did in 2020 and 2021 combined.


----------



## teuchter (Jan 5, 2022)

I don't know why anyone should now be surprised by graphs that show case numbers shooting up. It's what's going to happen everywhere. We know this. There's no reason to post a  in response to one of these graphs unless you have been hiding in a cave for the last few weeks.


----------



## gentlegreen (Jan 5, 2022)

«Un irresponsable n’est plus un citoyen»
("An irresponsible person is no longer a citizen")

I wonder if Priti Patel would concur.


----------



## elbows (Jan 5, 2022)

teuchter said:


> I don't know why anyone should now be surprised by graphs that show case numbers shooting up. It's what's going to happen everywhere. We know this. There's no reason to post a  in response to one of these graphs unless you have been hiding in a cave for the last few weeks.


People may still find the need to express themselves in that way even if the picture shown is not exactly surprising.


----------



## teuchter (Jan 5, 2022)

elbows said:


> People may still find the need to express themselves in that way even if the picture shown is not exactly surprising.


Yes, well I think this is part of the kind of stuff that leads some people to make comments about "doom mongering".


----------



## elbows (Jan 5, 2022)

Tough shit.


----------



## elbows (Jan 5, 2022)

I mean really, its not a pleasant phase of the pandemic globally and people are bound to fret about it. And that holds true even if certain aspects of Omicron end up being part of the path to moving to a rather different phase of the pandemic.

And yes, there is bound to be a wide range of opinion about whether people are inappropriately catastrophising some aspects. But thats just the way it goes, and people werent all on the same page at the start either, with plenty of similar comments when we were entering the first terrible wave.


----------



## two sheds (Jan 5, 2022)

More like doom mongering to say that it's spreading at an incredibly fast rate, nothing we can do about it, why are people so surprised?


----------



## 2hats (Jan 5, 2022)

Indeliblelink said:


> Well I did see this earlier but I don't claim to to be knowledgeable enough to say it backs that post up.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



As per the preprint (DOI: 10.1101/2022.01.03.21268582) those vaccinee sera were collected 4 weeks after the second dose from non-convalescents. The majority of those with standard dosing intervals, though some of the mRNA-1273 were 'stretched' out to 8 weeks which might begin to explain the skew of results in that cohort slightly further towards the cross-VOC antigenic 'centre' compared to the other vaccinees. The results shed little light on immunoresponses in individuals where sufficient time has passed for somatic hypermutation to fully play out. An antigenic map of sera from convalescent vaccinees and seronaive vaccinees who have received a third dose at ~6 months post dose two might be interesting.


----------



## elbows (Jan 5, 2022)

I suppose I'm vaguely surprised there werent more comments about Australias Delta wave just a few months back. More than half their total covid deaths so far came in that period, since they had relatively few deaths in earlier waves due to their policies of those earlier times.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 5, 2022)

They opened the borders on Dec 13th in qld, and now we have covid everywhere. Think they're saying it's mostly omicron. Also think qld is about 90% double vaxxed and there's boosters available for everyone. I had mine a few months ago. I believe the situation is similar in other states..it's just very new for qld. 

The state government have said sorry,  they didn't expect it to spread so fast and were unprepared with testing arrangements. Doh. So to start with they changed the definition of what a close contact is, because so many people were having to isolate that we got staff, food shortages, transport etc.  Also day long waits at testing stations, plus a long wait for results cos many private path labs closed over xmas. So now not so many people have to test or isolate. And they also underestimated the amount of tests that would be needed so that people could show they were negative to return to work. 

But I think they're getting on top of that now too. But tbh I think the numbers showing up are just the tip of the iceberg because people aren't bothering to get tested if they aren't that sick, mainly because of the shortages of tests and who wants to wait all day in a queue in 33°c. Home tests will soon be widely available though.

It's not a bad time of year to let it in because basically Aus shuts for summer until the end of Jan. And a lot of people are on  school and work holidays, plus as it was mandated for many employees to be vaxxed to  coincide with opening the borders, people are well covered. You need to be double vaxxed to go into non-essential shops, pubs n stuff. People are being urged to work from home if possible. 

Masks were mandated for all indoor areas on Jan 1st, 5 year old + can be vaxxed from Monday. There's still a lot of complaining about the government abusing human rights, but it's very obvious now that the antivaxxers are a small minority with a very loud voice. 

There's rumors that qld will go into lock down next week to try and slow it down a bit, but it's just a rumor atm.


----------



## elbows (Jan 5, 2022)

Cheers for the view on the ground!

I've been looking at their vaccine stats. Not sure it mentions booster figures, but then a lot of 2nd doses werent all that many months ago.









						COVID-19 vaccination daily rollout update
					

These daily presentations contain high-level data about Australia's COVID-19 vaccination rollout program.




					www.health.gov.au


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 5, 2022)

elbows said:


> Cheers for the view on the ground!
> 
> I've been looking at their vaccine stats. Not sure it mentions booster figures, but then a lot of 2nd doses werent all that many months ago.
> 
> ...



They've just reduced the suggested  time between second vaxx and booster from 6 to 3 months, so I expect there'll be a faster uptake now.

I think the common view is that we're all going to get it, and the faster that happens the sooner the wave will be over. It seems that most of their modeling has gone out of the window, and with vaxx rates so high, hospitalisations are low. In general the mood seems to be let's just bite the bullet and get it over with. 

A completely different experience than you've had in Europe.


----------



## elbows (Jan 5, 2022)

The experience previously was quite different but these days thats actually quite similar to much of Europe at this stage of vaccination. The extent to which that approach will hold still remains to be seen, its a bit of a mixed picture so far, but the authorities here probably do think they can ride it out this time, albeit with hairy moments for our NHS.


----------



## spring-peeper (Jan 5, 2022)

I really enjoy charts that move!!!









						COVID Cases since June by state partisanship
					

Animated bar graph chart of total COVID cases, state-by-state, since June 1




					dangoodspeed.com


----------



## two sheds (Jan 5, 2022)

must be costing thousands of republicans a fortune in hospital bills


----------



## spring-peeper (Jan 5, 2022)

Maybe not angry, but I'm definitely getting frustrated...









						Canadians are 'angry' with the unvaccinated: Trudeau
					

At this point in the pandemic, with widespread new restrictions and postponed surgeries for tens of thousands, Canadians are 'angry' with those in this country who still have not rolled up their sleeves to get vaccinated against COVID-19, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday.




					www.ctvnews.ca
				






> At this point in the pandemic, with widespread new restrictions and postponed surgeries for tens of thousands, Canadians are “angry” with those in this country who still have not rolled up their sleeves to get vaccinated against COVID-19, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Wednesday.
> 
> “People are seeing cancer treatments and elective surgeries put off because beds are filled with people who chose not to get vaccinated; they’re frustrated. When people see that we're in lockdowns, or serious public health restrictions right now because [of] the risk posed to all of us by unvaccinated people, people get angry,” the prime minister said.
> 
> Across the country over the last few weeks, new case counts have hit record highs largely due to the rapidly spreading and more transmissible Omicron variant, prompting a new wave of restrictions aimed at easing the strain on overburdened health-care sectors and testing facilities.


----------



## two sheds (Jan 5, 2022)

Not sure whether this is right but interesting if it is:


----------



## Flavour (Jan 6, 2022)

Japan has had over 18,000 deaths from covid but the pro-capital subtext of that tweet is jarring in any case


----------



## teuchter (Jan 6, 2022)

That tweet is from 2020.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 6, 2022)

That tweet was true at the time - and it's true now that Japan and South Korea haven't had full lockdowns and are not in the top 100 countries by COVID death rate.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 6, 2022)

Queensland Dec 6th 2021



I feel like we're going to see two years worth of covid in the next three months.

Jan 6th 2022


----------



## kabbes (Jan 6, 2022)

[I was responding to something I hadn’t realised was 4 pages old.  Forget it.]


----------



## krtek a houby (Jan 6, 2022)

Omicron cases are increasing here and US bases especially. 

Japan requests U.S. base curfews; Okinawa reports 981 virus cases


----------



## Flavour (Jan 6, 2022)

italy has passed legislation to make the vaccine mandatory for the over-50s


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 7, 2022)

Flavour said:


> italy has passed legislation to make the vaccine mandatory for the over-50s


And what happens if people refuse?


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 7, 2022)

Anyway Jan 7th in Queensland. And they're saying it'll peak at the end of Jan/ start of Feb. I think the kids will be delayed going back to school for a few weeks as well. And it's urged we work from home.


----------



## krtek a houby (Jan 7, 2022)

ice-is-forming said:


> And what happens if people refuse?



From Reuters

Prime Minister Mario Draghi's government had already made vaccination mandatory for teachers and health workers, and since October last year all employees have had to be vaccinated or show a negative test before entering the workplace.


Refusal results in suspension from work without pay, but not dismissal.

Wednesday's decree toughens this up for workers over the age of 50 by removing the option of taking a test rather than vaccination. It was not immediately clear what the sanction would be for those flouting the rule, effective from Feb 15.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 7, 2022)

krtek a houby said:


> From Reuters
> 
> Prime Minister Mario Draghi's government had already made vaccination mandatory for teachers and health workers, and since October last year all employees have had to be vaccinated or show a negative test before entering the workplace.
> 
> ...



Thank you  so it's just around employees? That's what we have here and it's brought out a lot of oppositional defiance disorder in usually sane people.

It seems to depend on if it's a government or private /nfp organisation around how long they'll keep you on the books before your contract is ended.

I have a few jobs & one you had to be double vaxxed by Dec 17th or be let go. I work that one with a very close friend who despite having chronic underlying conditions is refusing the vaccination. Her doctors have advised she should have it. We're only a team of 3 and we do very difficult crisis work in people's homes.

She's well down the rabbit hole & has been playing a game with HR by leading them on to believe she will get an exemption from the next specialist she sees ad infinitum... It's her way of protesting  we're finding it hard to be doing such traumatising work with only 2 of us now, it means me and my other colleage get no break, and until she goes we can't begin the process of advertising, onboarding and training up another person. And that'll take 6 weeks.

I eventually pulled her on it a few days ago and she just didn't seem to get it 

When I asked her to "please do the right thing" I meant just fucking leave so we can find another team member, because we both  know there's no exemption and she won't be vaxxed.

She's so one track that she assumed I was telling her the 'right thing' was to get vaccinated and sent me a yard long rant about conspiracies and government.... Again.

Obviously the right thing is to get vaccinated but I know her views and don't bother talking to her about it any more.

_Sigh_


----------



## krtek a houby (Jan 7, 2022)

ice-is-forming said:


> Thank you  so it's just around employees? That's what we have here and it's brought out a lot of oppositional defiance disorder in usually sane people.
> 
> It seems to depend on if it's a government or private /nfp organisation around how long they'll keep you on the books before your contract is ended.
> 
> ...



Afaik, it's workers based. 

If people have genuine medical reasons for not getting their jabs, fair enough. But it will, undoubtedly, lead to more protests about the erosion of civil liberties and of course, fringe omicronauts heading into the darker spaces out there. Where are the latter when employers have always exploited the workers with zero hours/crap wages etc? Don't recall any solidarity from them for strikers or unions. They'd tend to be the ones to mock, rather than organize.

Sigh. Rant over.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 7, 2022)

krtek a houby said:


> Afaik, it's workers based.
> 
> If people have genuine medical reasons for not getting their jabs, fair enough. But it will, undoubtedly, lead to more protests about the erosion of civil liberties and of course, fringe omicronauts heading into the darker spaces out there. Where are the latter when employers have always exploited the workers with zero hours/crap wages etc? Don't recall any solidarity from them for strikers or unions. They'd tend to be the ones to mock, rather than organize.
> 
> Sigh. Rant over.



Absolutely! It makes me rant too.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 7, 2022)

Interesting thread on long COVID from the doomier end of the spectrum - the neurological issues in particular sound like very bad news.

_Even a “mild” case in a vaccinated individual can lead to long-term issues which cause a measurable uptick in all-cause mortality in the first 6 months, and get progressively worse with time._


----------



## Flavour (Jan 7, 2022)

ice-is-forming said:


> And what happens if people refuse?



Talk of a €100 fine per month


----------



## pbsmooth (Jan 7, 2022)

NB: I'm not an anti-vaxx/conspiracy/'it's just a cold' loon... but out of curiosity, if we had lateral flow tests for the flu, do you think the numbers of positive tests, and general numbers around positive tests/hospitalisations/deaths would be in anyway similar? Just idly wondering and hadn't seen any discussion around it.


----------



## gentlegreen (Jan 7, 2022)

I think the flu is still reckoned to be a lot less infectious than covid - and it was wiped out last winter even while covid cases were skyrocketing - presumably due to the measures people were taking ...
It is said that pretty well everyone has *rhinovirus *up their noses - presumably doing a bit of replication ...


----------



## elbows (Jan 7, 2022)

pbsmooth said:


> NB: I'm not an anti-vaxx/conspiracy/'it's just a cold' loon... but out of curiosity, if we had lateral flow tests for the flu, do you think the numbers of positive tests, and general numbers around positive tests/hospitalisations/deaths would be in anyway similar? Just idly wondering and hadn't seen any discussion around it.


I can do this one, its just a quetion of how brief and concise I can manage to make it:

The headline answer would be no, but there would be a few yes's in the longer answer too.....

In an influenza pandemic or a bad influenza epidemic year, which would feature a large wave, you could perhaps get some similarities in sheer case numbers if we actually did routine mass diagnostics testing for that strain of flu at the time. But those giant epidemics and pandemics dont come along all that often.

And health services are used to being placed under significant pressure during such waves. But they happen far less frequently than with the Covid virus so far. And there are a lot of existing treatments for flu, and we have used vaccines over many years to reduce the burden. There are some similarities in terms of the age profiles of those most severely affected, some of which end up reducing pressure on intensive care and ventilation because we dont do that sort of care for the oldest and frailest people as much as we attempt it for younger people.

But there are still differences in scale which make the nature of the covid waves so far quite a lot worse than typical flu epidemics and we havent had a really really bad flu pandemic for a long time. On paper, fears about brand new types of flu, such as ones that could adapt from birds to humans far more than has been the case so far, do envisage challenges that could be on a comparable scale to this covid pandemic - hopefully it will be a long time before this is demonstrated to everyone in a dramatic fashion. A lot of the planning for such pandemics tends to assume that we wont be starting from scratch in terms of treatments for those though, that for example some of the existing influenza antiviral treatments would help, even if suitable vaccines were not available for a while.

In terms of deaths, lack of mass testing has left this subject as one where there is significant divergence in attitudes between different professionals. Some people in healthcare woefully undercount the number of deaths that flu is implicated in, and arguments about this aspect have emerged on this forum from time to time during the current pandemic. It doesnt get on death certificates as much as it should either. Ultimately we can work round these issues by looking at overall total deaths and excess deaths during periods where a flu epidemic is happening. I have graphs of deaths per day going back to 1970 which demonstrate that on a few occasions there have been pandemics and epidemics of flu which can result in peaks of all cause death that are not dissimilar in size to the death peaks from all causes seen in the first two waves of this covid pandemic. However we need to keep in mind that the similar scale of death is a distorted comparison in that the flu epidemics and pandemics were not met with anything like the same scale of non-pharmaceutical interventions as the first few covid waves were met with. For example there are some studies which estimate that if the UK had taken a Sweden-like approach to the first wave, we would have had twice as many deaths as we actually had, and if accurate that would have pushed the covid death peak much further beyond the death levels seen in the very worst flu epidemics and pandemics of the last 50 years.


----------



## elbows (Jan 7, 2022)

Here is one example in graph form. Though note the differences between the first graph and the second graph, which demonstrate the limitations in simply comparing crude numbers over a very long period of time - big changes to total size of population, health care, age and general health of the population. Its still useful to see the raw spikes though, just need to keep in mind the broader population context too.


Thats from Deaths registered in England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

The flu epidemics and pandemics of the last 50ish years that I mentioned dont really show up well in those yearly figures, because of things evening out over the course of a year, but do show up well in daily, weekly or monthly deaths. Note that this was not the case for the covid first wave, which certainly did not balance out in the death figures over the course of 2020. I dont have my charts to hand right now, but I will dig them out at some point, not sure it will be today though, maybe.

People may be curious about the gradual rise in deaths seen well before this pandemic - we might attribute that to demographic changes, to austerity etc, but also to reduced vaccine effectiveness against one of the nastiest versions of flu, H3N2.


----------



## pbsmooth (Jan 7, 2022)

interesting. thanks for detailed response. just interested in the idea that we might all have flu much more often than we think but are unaware.


----------



## elbows (Jan 7, 2022)

pbsmooth said:


> interesting. thanks for detailed response. just interested in the idea that we might all have flu much more often than we think but are unaware.


We do. When we dont have mass testing, people are left to think about different illnesses in terms of symptom severity, and its actually a really poor guide, hence things like popular ideas about 'man flu' are often far wide of the mark. We end up only really being confident that we've had 'proper flu' when we experience an especially bad bout of it, with symptoms we find easy to associate with flu specifically.

And this is an even bigger distortion when it comes to flu because a very large proportion of flu cases are believed to be completely asymptomatic.


----------



## gentlegreen (Jan 7, 2022)

pbsmooth said:


> interesting. thanks for detailed response. just interested in the idea that we might all have flu much more often than we think but are unaware.


I've recently come to the conclusion that I probably had flu most years while I was working in a university  - I was consistently laid-out for 4 days every year for nearly 40 years - but only a few times did it get to the not being able to climb the stairs stage - I don't recall ever having "a cold" - it was mostly fever / headache / fatigue - and I always bounced back - until 2018 and 2019 by which time borderline diabetes had caught up with me - in 2011 it was followed by shingles.


----------



## yield (Jan 7, 2022)

Cuba’s vaccine success story sails past mark set by rich world’s Covid efforts
5 Jan 2022


> More than 90% of the population has been vaccinated with at least one dose of Cuba’s homegrown vaccines, while 83% have been fully inoculated. Of countries with populations of over a million, only the United Arab Emirates has a stronger vaccination record.





> “Cuba is a victim of magical realism,” said John Kirk, professor emeritus of Latin American studies at Dalhousie University, Canada. “The idea that Cuba, with only 11 million people, and limited income, could be a biotech power, might be incomprehensible for someone working at Pfizer, but for Cuba it is possible.”



...



> The vaccine success is all the more striking when set against the parlous state of the healthcare service in other areas. With hard currency inflows cut in half over the last two years, antibiotics are now so scarce that 20 pills of amoxicillin trade on the black market for the equivalent of a month’s minimum state salary. Out of plaster cast, doctors in some provinces now resort to wrapping broken bones in used cardboard.





> “Ever since the 1959 revolution, Cubans have embarked on these grand crusades which are quixotic yet often successful,” said Gregory Biniowsky, a Havana-based lawyer.





> A prime example, Biniowsky said, was Fidel Castro’s pipe dream of investing one billion dollars in biotech after the Soviet Union disintegrated. “Any rational adviser would have said this was not the time to invest resources in something that might bear fruit in 25 years. And yet here we are now … where these fruits of the biotech investment are saving lives.”


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 9, 2022)

Queensland Jan 9th


----------



## teuchter (Jan 10, 2022)

Sweden introducing some restrictions - a little in contrast to their approach earlier in the pandemic.



			https://www.thelocal.se/20220110/swedish-government-expected-to-announce-new-covid-restrictions/


----------



## elbows (Jan 10, 2022)

Yes and as I've mentioned before, they added new restrictions in December too:



> The latest restrictions - the second stage of the government's plans - includes a limit of 50 people at private gatherings and the need for a vaccination pass for public events where there are more than 500 people.
> 
> Bars and restaurants will only be able to serve seated guests while the public will also have to be seated at larger events - like football matches. Shops will have to limit the number of customers to prevent crowding.











						Sweden hardens COVID curbs amid worries over Omicron
					

Sweden will urge all employees to work from home if possible and impose tighter rules for social distancing, the government said on Tuesday, as it ratchets up restrictions to fight a surge in new infections and the Omicron variant of the COVID-19 virus.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Jan 10, 2022)

Swedens response, like their war effort has been deliberately ineffective.  There is no restrictions to speak to of. They try and use police to stop it at the border. People have no awareness. No masks on transport or in shops.  No social distancing.


----------



## HAL9000 (Jan 10, 2022)

Health officials let COVID-infected staff stay on the job
					

Health authorities around the U.S. are increasingly taking the extraordinary step of allowing nurses and other workers infected with the coronavirus to stay on the job if they have mild symptoms or none at all.




					apnews.com


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 12, 2022)

"Vertical transmission" between units in a tower block seems like very bad news for Hong Kong's fight against omicron.









						Fears over new Covid-19 cluster linked to Hong Kong hotpot restaurant
					

Health officials voice concern about possible transmission at a Nabe Urawa restaurant in Causeway Bay.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## teqniq (Jan 14, 2022)

Not a big fan of graphs but the comparison with the UK in damning:


----------



## platinumsage (Jan 14, 2022)

Saw a video on Chinese social media earlier of how a zero-COVID is implemented with Omicron. There were people in a shopping mall in what I think was a shoe shop, and suddenly security guards locked the shop doors trapping everyone inside. One of the shopper’s phones had pinged red indicating they might have a close contact who was infected, so all the shoppers were detained inside to await transportation to a quarantine facility.


----------



## gentlegreen (Jan 14, 2022)

quarantined in metal boxes ?
they're much bigger than microtels...





			https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=China++zero-COVID+viral+video&sp=CAI%253D


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Jan 14, 2022)

gentlegreen said:


> quarantined in metal boxes ?
> they're much bigger than microtels...
> 
> 
> ...



Looks about the same size as the "rooms" in a CitizenM hotel.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 15, 2022)

gentlegreen said:


> quarantined in metal boxes ?
> they're much bigger than microtels...
> 
> 
> ...



UK prison cell sized just about
as a side note: 
most prisonners in the Uk have been on 23 hours a day [actual] lockdowns for the duration over the past 2 years.
Serious psychological damage right there.


----------



## IC3D (Jan 15, 2022)

Do the Chinese know something we don't?


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 15, 2022)

IC3D said:


> Do the Chinese know something we don't?



I don't think Beijing knows any more about omicron than we do, but they've crushed dissent so thoroughly that authorities can pursue a zero COVID strategy at all costs without fear of repurcussions.

_Many officials now believe that they must do everything within their power to ensure zero Covid infections since it is the will of their top leader, Xi Jinping. For the officials, virus control comes first. The people’s lives, well-being and dignity come much later.

The government has the help of a vast army of community workers who carry out the policy with zeal and hordes of online nationalists who attack anyone raising grievances or concerns._









						The Army of Millions Who Enforce China’s Zero-Covid Policy, at All Costs
					

As the troubled lockdown in Xi’an has shown, many Chinese people remain willing to work diligently toward the government’s goal of eliminating the virus, no matter the consequences.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Combustible (Jan 15, 2022)

Bizarre framing as usual from US coverage of covid in China, talking about virus control being put above people's lives, when not controlling the virus inevitably, even in the presence of mass vaccination leads to signifcantly more illness and death. Why would there be any significant dissent against a zero-Covid policy when the consequences of having Covid spread in other countries has been plain to see. Although it does neatly align with the argument from the state press that western style democracy is incapable of implementing the necessary Covid elimination strategies (which ignores the examples of democracies which did follow such a strategy).


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 15, 2022)

Combustible said:


> Why would there be any significant dissent against a zero-Covid policy when the consequences of having Covid spread in other countries has been plain to see.



This could apply to every country, tbf.

China is pursuing its current COVID policy because it's a totalitarian state and it can get away with it - no country where the leaders had to worry about being elected would impose a total lockdown overnight on a city of 14 million people and tightly censor criticism.

Where Western countries might have gone wrong early in the pandemic is trying to bring in Wuhan-style lockdowns without the apparatus of dictatorship - it's a shame the press at the time wasn't taking a more critical look at the response of the Chinese state instead of gushing about how fast they built a prefab hospital.


----------



## Combustible (Jan 15, 2022)

Yossarian said:


> This could apply to every country, tbf.


You'd hope so, but as much as governments have sometimes used it as an excuse, it's not on the whole been public opposition which has prevented governments putting in stricter measures, and often public opinion has overwhelming supported stricter measures than what governments have been willing to introduce. And AFAIK in countries like New Zealand that abandoned zero covid policies, it wasn't particularly a result of public opposition.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 15, 2022)

A better comparison might be Taiwan, where they've pursued a zero COVID strategy without the unaccountable brutality of the mainland government - I think the place that will have longer-term success in controlling COVID is the one where people aren't terrified of their government.


----------



## _Russ_ (Jan 15, 2022)

Yossarian said:


> A better comparison might be Taiwan, where they've pursued a zero COVID strategy without the unaccountable brutality of the mainland government - I think the place that will have longer-term success in controlling COVID is the one where people aren't terrified of their government.


I honestly can't see the correlation, could you give some example regimes?


----------



## Raheem (Jan 15, 2022)

Yossarian said:


> A better comparison might be Taiwan, where they've pursued a zero COVID strategy without the unaccountable brutality of the mainland government - I think the place that will have longer-term success in controlling COVID is the one where people aren't terrified of their government.


I don't have an overall picture of how things have gone in Taiwan, but I think early on they were sealing people into their homes.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Jan 16, 2022)

ice-is-forming said:


> Anyway Jan 7th in Queensland. And they're saying it'll peak at the end of Jan/ start of Feb. I think the kids will be delayed going back to school for a few weeks as well. And it's urged we work from home.
> 
> View attachment 304849



Queensland Jan 16th


----------



## spring-peeper (Jan 16, 2022)

Just saw this fb post from Trudeau



> Justin Trudeau​
> 
> Update: It is now illegal to intimidate doctors, nurses, and patients – or to obstruct them from providing care or seeking treatment – as our government’s legislation to criminalize this behaviour comes into force today. We’ll continue to have the backs of health care workers



Several of the comments are that the government can not force them to take the vaccine - well d'uh...


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 17, 2022)

Raheem said:


> I don't have an overall picture of how things have gone in Taiwan, but I think early on they were sealing people into their homes.



That only happened in mainland China, AFAIK - maybe you saw a story from Taiwanese media, which reports more openly on developments on the mainland?









						Videos show Chinese authorities locking people inside their homes as Delta surges | Taiwan News | 2021-08-10 13:06:00
					

Footage alleges Chinese locked inside homes if they test positive for COVID, violate quarantine | 2021-08-10 13:06:00




					www.taiwannews.com.tw


----------



## dessiato (Jan 17, 2022)

Seen this. It would be great if it's true, but I have my doubts.









						AntiCovid chewing gum to hit the market in Spain
					

Anticovid Chewing Gum To Hit The Market In Spain Keep up with the Latest News In English from around Spain




					spanishnewstoday.com


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 17, 2022)

_Russ_ said:


> I honestly can't see the correlation, could you give some example regimes?



Beyond Taiwan, Japan and South Korea are also democratic countries that have seen very high levels of compliance with public health measures.

While China also has very high levels of compliance, I think extreme measures like locking down entire cities for weeks so tightly that people are having trouble getting food is likely to make at least a few people so terrified of the consequences of testing positive that they will either ignore their symptoms or persuade themselves that they couldn't possibly be infected.

Chinese authorities seem to be in denial themselves - there's an omicron outbreak in Tianjin, 80 miles from Beijing and less than 30 minutes away by train, but authorities are claiming a case of omicron detected in Beijing must have come from the surface of a package that was sent from Toronto and passed through the US and Hong Kong in its four-day journey to China.









						Mail from Canada suspected source of Omicron case in Beijing: Beijing’s CDC - Global Times
					






					www.globaltimes.cn


----------



## teqniq (Jan 17, 2022)

Wow:









						Students Are Doing What Adults Won’t in the Fight Against Omicron
					

Thousands of students are walking out of class to protest conditions at U.S. schools—and challenge adults who are placing profit over their well-being.




					www.vice.com


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 18, 2022)

In Hong Kong, they're culling thousands of hamsters - after a woman who works in a pet shop tested positive for delta and they couldn't find a human source, they tested the hamsters and 11 came back positive. 

Seems just as likely that delta was circulating undetected and the woman infected the hamsters, guess we will find out in the weeks to come.









						Hong Kong culls hamsters over Covid-19 fears, pet store customers in quarantine
					

Two people tied to Little Boss pet shop confirmed as infected and 150 customers ordered into quarantine.




					www.scmp.com


----------



## Dogsauce (Jan 18, 2022)

How do you lateral flow a hamster? I find it hard enough work with a three year old human.


----------



## prunus (Jan 18, 2022)

Dogsauce said:


> How do you lateral flow a hamster? I find it hard enough work with a three year old human.



You oscillate its titalot. 

No, sorry, that’s something else. Ignore me.


----------



## two sheds (Jan 20, 2022)

A bit of a derail but I wonder whether covid might help put into perspective some of the other threats and how seriously we should take them:









						Antimicrobial resistance now a leading cause of death worldwide, study finds
					

Lancet analysis highlights need for urgent action to address antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections




					www.theguardian.com
				






> More than 1.2 million – and potentially millions more – died in 2019 as a direct result of antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections, according to the most comprehensive estimate to date of the global impact of antimicrobial resistance (AMR).



There seem to be relatively easy things that can be done with that though - stop force feeding animals with antibiotics in the US particularly, for example.


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 20, 2022)

weltweit said:


> New China virus: Cases triple as infection spreads to Beijing and Shanghai
> 
> 
> This comes as China confirms that a new strain of coronavirus can pass from person to person.
> ...



This thread started with this post two years ago today - feels like a fuck of a lot longer.


----------



## 2hats (Jan 20, 2022)

Only just under 3 more years to go then.


----------



## 20Bees (Jan 20, 2022)

Yossarian said:


> This thread started with this post two years ago today - feels like a fuck of a lot longer.


23 January 2020 my son messaged from China to say they were fine, nervously following the news, but that 400 people had already flown into their city from Wuhan for the Chinese New Year holidays.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 21, 2022)

... wrong quote ...


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Jan 21, 2022)

weltweit said:


> New China virus: Cases triple as infection spreads to Beijing and Shanghai
> 
> 
> This comes as China confirms that a new strain of coronavirus can pass from person to person.
> ...


I hate you!!!

thought I had some news in the last couple of days and got really worried for a short while


----------



## spring-peeper (Jan 21, 2022)

According to several articles, Chinese social media hates Canada.

They claim we sent them covid-infected mail.


----------



## elbows (Jan 21, 2022)

spring-peeper said:


> According to several articles, Chinese social media hates Canada.
> 
> They claim we sent them covid-infected mail.


Mostly thats as a result of the latest evolution of their propaganda which has sought to blame other countries for Covid. A new variant of the propaganda they've used to deflect away from their role in the pandemic arriving in the first place.


----------



## spring-peeper (Jan 21, 2022)

elbows said:


> Mostly thats as a result of the latest evolution of their propaganda which has sought to blame other countries for Covid. A new variant of the propaganda they've used to deflect away from their role in the pandemic arriving in the first place.




I think it may have more to do with us holding a Chinese CFO(?) for several years while the US decided whether or not to extradite her.

On that count, I agree with them.


----------



## Raheem (Jan 21, 2022)

Perhaps Canada can just say "sorry".


----------



## elbows (Jan 21, 2022)

Its pretty standard for them to combine multiple objectives into the same propaganda campaign.


----------



## elbows (Jan 21, 2022)

spring-peeper said:


> I think it may have more to do with us holding a Chinese CFO(?) for several years while the US decided whether or not to extradite her.
> 
> On that count, I agree with them.


Its pretty standard for them to combine multiple objectives into the same propaganda campaign. And to make use of sentiments they already stoked previously.


----------



## Combustible (Jan 21, 2022)

elbows said:


> Mostly thats as a result of the latest evolution of their propaganda which has sought to blame other countries for Covid. A new variant of the propaganda they've used to deflect away from their role in the pandemic arriving in the first place.


I don't get this line of argument, clearly any omicron cases in China must have originated outside the country, so either came in via a person entering the country or on the surface of an object. As I understand it in this case no transmission chain was identified and the virus was found on a recently delivered package. Plenty of cases have been reported as coming through the quarantine system leading to local transmissions so it's not exactly like they are unwilling to admit that cases get through sometimes. As I think you pointed out a number of times  earlier in the pandemic there was an overemphasis on surface transmission, whereas now the dogma seems to have swung the other way that surface transmission does not occur. Recently 5 cases were reported at a Beijing cold storage facility. It's possible they had an unknown transmission chain to an incoming but arriving on imported frozen goods does seem much more likely.


----------



## elbows (Jan 21, 2022)

When I use the word propaganda I am not actually saying something is or is not possibly true, I am just pointing out that something is being used for propaganda purposes. Sometimes the best propaganda is truth, sometimes not. But propaganda does tend to be more effective if it has some plausibility to it.


----------



## Badgers (Jan 22, 2022)

First flight lands on Covid-free island - what happened next won’t surprise you
					

Island imposes a four-day lockdown in response




					www.independent.co.uk


----------



## Balbi (Jan 22, 2022)

Omicron has got loose in NZ, it was always going to eventually, we're at 93.7% double jabbed and boosters started this month and we're at 22% for that.

Red level, which means vaccine passes and masks in public. Schools stay open.

Here it goes again .


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 22, 2022)

The "omicron arrived in Beijing on mail from Toronto" claim is pure propaganda and nobody should believe it for a second - there have been omicron outbreaks in multiple cities in China, including Tianjin, less than 30 minutes away from Beijing by train.

An outbreak in Anyang was linked to a student who traveled 260 miles from Tianjin to the city on Dec. 29, more than a week before the first omicron case was detected in Tianjin. In Hong Kong, they've found omicron cases spreading through multiple floors in apartment buildings and as far as they can figure out, one person was infected in the few seconds they walked past a masked infected person in a subway tunnel.

But instead of concluding that this woman was infected from an unknown source during her extensive travels around the city, these clowns in Beijing expect people to believe that it's more likely that she got omicron from an infectious dose of the virus that survived on the outside of mail that traveled from Canada to Beijing in a four-day journey that took it through the US and Hong Kong. 

Even if they're not just completely making up the stuff about finding the virus on an envelope, is it not just a tiny bit more likely that the infected woman contaminated her mail rather than the other way around?

With the number of people with British connections down there, there must have been a fuck of a lot of mail going from omicron-saturated Britain to largely omicron-free New Zealand in December, you'd expect at least a few cases in NZ to have been caused that way if this was a remotely plausible method of transmission.


----------



## Petcha (Jan 23, 2022)

Balbi said:


> Omicron has got loose in NZ, it was always going to eventually, we're at 93.7% double jabbed and boosters started this month and we're at 22% for that.
> 
> Red level, which means vaccine passes and masks in public. Schools stay open.
> 
> Here it goes again .



Their PM cancels her wedding. Boris gets married and has another few kids while he's at it, and then pisses it up in the heart of government to celebrate. It's unreal. 



> The outbreak has also forced the prime minister to cancel her wedding to Clarke Gayford, which was due to take place in the coming weeks at Gisborne on the North Island’s eastern coast.
> 
> Ardern said on Sunday the country would try to slow the spread of Omicron but it was expected New Zealand would reach 1,000 cases a day in the coming weeks and thousands a day after that. New Zealand has not previously reported that level of infection.


----------



## Balbi (Jan 23, 2022)

Tbh we bought ourselves time to get the  vaccine developed, get our order in after the countries who were being slammed by it, get high vax rates, buy the new treatments that came online, vaccinate the Cook Islands and Tokelau and others.

When Delta emerged we struggled to stop it but it still didn't kill thousands and things have been pretty normal here for the last two and a bit years.

With Omicron it was just a matter of time, and the messaging here has been "get jabbed, get boosted, get ready, it's coming" for the last two months.

We're as well prepared as 5,000,000 folks can be, only had 15000 cases so far since February 2020 and 51 deaths. That's going to change a bit now, but hopefully we won't tank as much as the UK and Aussie have.


----------



## Petcha (Jan 23, 2022)

Balbi said:


> Tbh we bought ourselves time to get the  vaccine developed, get our order in after the countries who were being slammed by it, get high vax rates, buy the new treatments that came online, vaccinate the Cook Islands and Tokelau and others.
> 
> When Delta emerged we struggled to stop it but it still didn't kill thousands and things have been pretty normal here for the last two and a bit years.
> 
> ...



I don't think you could possibly get a different style of 'leadership' than what we're dealing with here. 



> Asked about her wedding cancellation, Ardern said: “Such is life. I am no different to, dare I say, thousands of other New Zealanders who have had much more devastating impacts felt by the pandemic. The most gutting of which is the inability to be with a loved one sometimes when they’re gravely ill. That will far, far outstrip any sadness I experience.
> 
> “My wedding won’t be going ahead but I just join many other New Zealanders who have had an experience like that as a result of the pandemic. And to anyone caught up in that scenario, I am so sorry. But we are all so resilient and I know we understand we are doing this for one another and it will help us carry on.”



I'm glad your strategy has worked out anyway. 90% double jabbed aint bad so I'm sure you'll ride this one out. We're being sent back to work here with still over 100,000 cases a day, so our glorious leader can placate the right wing nuts in his party. Personally I've told my boss no fucking way I'm going back in yet.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jan 24, 2022)

Looking at Danish figures, where our new cases peaked around New Year, theirs have just kept on going up after momentarily slowing at New Year. 

But their health indicators remain pretty good despite this - deaths reasonably low, hospital occupancy around half what we have here (they may be measuring more accurately, though, I don't know - ie excluding incidental covid): around 900, which is equivalent to about 11,000 in the UK. Intensive care and respirator use also lower than here. 

They seem to be keeping it reasonably well away from vulnerable old people. 

Experience


----------



## elbows (Jan 24, 2022)

Well in regards 'incidental' Covid, this was said in regards Denmark on January 17th. I expect that figure may have changed by now, if the UK is anything to go by it will have increased further.



> Still, health authorities said earlier this month that the now-predominant Omicron variant was milder than initially thought and that around 29% of those in hospital were there due to reasons other than COVID-19.











						Denmark eases coronavirus restrictions, as cases hit new record
					

Denmark registered a record number of coronavirus infections on Monday, as cinemas, museums and other cultural institutions reopened after a month-long COVID-19 lockdown.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## Dogsauce (Jan 25, 2022)

Neil Young trying to pull his songs from Spotify because they’re pushing Covid misinformation and it’s killing people, specifically the Joe Rogan podcast. 

Better music than Clapton/van Morrison and also a better human.









						Neil Young demands Spotify remove his music over Joe Rogan vaccine misinformation
					

‘They can have Rogan or Young. Not both,’ writes musician in an open letter to his management that has since been taken down from his website




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## gentlegreen (Jan 25, 2022)

Dogsauce said:


> Neil Young trying to pull his songs from Spotify because they’re pushing Covid misinformation and it’s killing people, specifically the Joe Rogan podcast.
> 
> Better music than Clapton/van Morrison and also a better human.
> 
> ...


Thanks for that - it reminded me to uninstall spotify that had been auto-running since some podcast or other.
I'm so relieved he hasn't gone to the dark side on this


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2022)

gentlegreen said:


> Thanks for that - it reminded me to uninstall spotify that had been auto-running since some podcast or other.
> I'm so relieved he hasn't gone to the dark side on this


Yeah the last thing we needed was a anti-vax rework of Needle and the damage done.


----------



## gentlegreen (Jan 25, 2022)

elbows said:


> Yeah the last thing we needed was a anti-vax rework of Needle and the damage done.


Must. Not. Google. That.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jan 25, 2022)

elbows said:


> Well in regards 'incidental' Covid, this was said in regards Denmark on January 17th. I expect that figure may have changed by now, if the UK is anything to go by it will have increased further.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The other thing of note for me is the way omicron has taken over in countries that had relatively high rates of delta when omicron entered the scene, which includes both the UK and Denmark. Both countries now have 99% omicron, same as South Africa and Botswana, which had relatively low rates of delta pre-omicron. The absolute number of delta cases is going down rapidly - well under 1,000 a day now in the UK. Two months of omicron, and delta seems to be toast. It does appear that it is swiftly being pushed towards extinction worldwide. 

Latest figures here:

Share of SARS-CoV-2 sequences that are the omicron variant


----------



## miss direct (Jan 25, 2022)

Can anyone tell me what's happening re covid in Bangladesh? I can't find much up to date news and am not sure where to look.


----------



## ruffneck23 (Jan 25, 2022)

miss direct said:


> Can anyone tell me what's happening re covid in Bangladesh? I can't find much up to date news and am not sure where to look.


I work with a couple of peeps in India, not sure where , but I can ask them tomorrow when they come on line and see if they know.


----------



## elbows (Jan 25, 2022)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Looking at Danish figures, where our new cases peaked around New Year, theirs have just kept on going up after momentarily slowing at New Year.
> 
> But their health indicators remain pretty good despite this - deaths reasonably low, hospital occupancy around half what we have here (they may be measuring more accurately, though, I don't know - ie excluding incidental covid): around 900, which is equivalent to about 11,000 in the UK. Intensive care and respirator use also lower than here.
> 
> ...


I havent had time to look at the data for myself, but I understand that the BA.2 variant of Omicron seems to be dominating in Denmark. Its on the rise in the UK too, some think it will be the dominant Omicron version here by mid Feb if current trends continue, but again I havent done such analysis for myself. I dont think there is a proper handle on whether there will be any important implications.


----------



## deeyo (Jan 25, 2022)

elbows said:


> Yeah the last thing we needed was a anti-vax rework of Needle and the damage done.


nah, he's pro-vax, is young neil.
wrote a song bout it n all.



eta: & for real, he made a new video for ''shut it down' as a reaction to the pandemic


----------



## Yossarian (Jan 25, 2022)

miss direct said:


> Can anyone tell me what's happening re covid in Bangladesh? I can't find much up to date news and am not sure where to look.



The Dhaka Tribune has a daily update in English.









						Covid: Bangladesh logs 16,033 new cases with an infection rate of 32.4%
					

Fatality rate stands at 1.65%




					www.dhakatribune.com


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2022)

In the first wave we heckled the IHME model here a few times.

Looks like these days people still find opportunities to poke fun at it.


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2022)

littlebabyjesus said:


> Looking at Danish figures, where our new cases peaked around New Year, theirs have just kept on going up after momentarily slowing at New Year.
> 
> But their health indicators remain pretty good despite this - deaths reasonably low, hospital occupancy around half what we have here (they may be measuring more accurately, though, I don't know - ie excluding incidental covid): around 900, which is equivalent to about 11,000 in the UK. Intensive care and respirator use also lower than here.
> 
> ...



I've now taken more time to look at their hospital data.

I've been comparing hospital and intensive care figures to the levels they had in past waves. Their numbers in hospital have started increasing again and are comparable to the numbers that they had a year ago.









						Number of COVID-19 patients in hospital
					

An interactive visualization from Our World in Data.




					ourworldindata.org
				




However there are obviously different implications when comparing the numbers in hospital now and in the wave a year ago, when looking at countries that did relatively well at protecting a lot of people in that wave compared to counties that ended up having the sort of numbers the UK had a year ago.

Also their intensive care graph shows the 'Omicron drop'. 









						Number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care (ICU)
					

An interactive visualization from Our World in Data.




					ourworldindata.org
				




And that drop is leading to policy decisions that may seem strangely timed when looking at all the other data we are used to looking at, but makes more sense when we see the ICU data and consider what fears forced countries to act strongly in this pandemic in the first place.

And so we now have stories like these about Denmark announcing that they are dropping remaining restrictions at the start of February:









						Denmark becomes first EU country to scrap all COVID-19 restrictions
					

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen says country can find its ‘smile’ again.




					www.politico.eu
				






> “Tonight we can shrug our shoulders and find the smile again. We have incredibly good news, we can now remove the last coronavirus restrictions in Denmark,” Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said at a press conference, following recommendations from the Epidemic Commission and with all the main political parties’ support. The last restrictions will be dropped on February 1.
> 
> The announcement comes as a new subvariant of Omicron, BA.2, is gaining a foothold in Denmark and driving infections up, with 46,000 new COVID-19 cases recorded on Wednesday.





> “Recent weeks have seen very high infection rates, in fact the highest in the entire pandemic,” Frederiksen said. “Therefore, it may seem strange and paradoxical that we are now ready to let go of the restrictions.”
> 
> Health Minister Magnus Heunicke added: “The situation in Denmark is that we have this decoupling between infections and intensive care patients, and it is mainly due to the large attachment among Danes to revaccination. That is the reason why it is safe and the right thing to do now.”











						Denmark ends most virus restrictions, as Sweden extends them
					

COPENHAGEN, Denmark (AP) — Denmark’s government said Wednesday it will scrap most...




					www.sfchronicle.com
				






> Denmark currently requires face masks on public transportation, in shops, for standing clients in restaurant indoor areas, and for people entering hospitals, health care facilities and retirement homes. As of Feb. 1, the government will only recommend mask use in hospitals, health care facilities and homes for the elderly.
> 
> Frederiksen said that while the omicron variant is surging in Denmark, it is not placing a heavy burden on the health system and the country has a high vaccination rate.
> 
> “It may seem strange that we want to remove restrictions given the high infection rates,” she said. “But fewer people become seriously ill.”





> Denmark has in recent weeks seen more than 46,000 daily cases on average, but only 40 people are currently in hospital intensive care units — down from 80 a few weeks ago — Health Minister Magnus Heunicke said.
> 
> Heunicke urged Danes to get tested regularly. ”We continue with a strong epidemic surveillance. Then we ... can react quickly if necessary.”



The latter article also covers Sweden extending its measures for a few more weeks.

I wouldnt call the Danish approach entirely risk free, but I'm not going to talk much about such risks unless they show clear signs of materialising.

By the way, Denmark also presented some initial estimates in regards BA.2 transmissibility and severity, which I've mentioned here: Covid Mutations


----------



## elbows (Jan 26, 2022)

littlebabyjesus said:


> The other thing of note for me is the way omicron has taken over in countries that had relatively high rates of delta when omicron entered the scene, which includes both the UK and Denmark. Both countries now have 99% omicron, same as South Africa and Botswana, which had relatively low rates of delta pre-omicron. The absolute number of delta cases is going down rapidly - well under 1,000 a day now in the UK. Two months of omicron, and delta seems to be toast. It does appear that it is swiftly being pushed towards extinction worldwide.
> 
> Latest figures here:
> 
> Share of SARS-CoV-2 sequences that are the omicron variant



These days this site is especially good at showing variants over time per country. I'm looking at it now because it shows BA.2 as well, most obviously in the chart for Denmark:









						CoVariants: Per Country
					

CoVariants: Plots of Frequencies by Country




					covariants.org


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Jan 26, 2022)

Denmark has regularly been one of the first countries to lift restrictions. It lifted all restrictions around end of August last year, citing the vaccination rate, before bringing some back in November, and was earlier than most in reopening schools in 2020.

It benefits from a healthier political culture than here. Politicians don't have to pretend they get everything right all the time in quite the same way. 

Thing about risks in removing remaining restrictions is that Denmark has really high rates (which can't be sustained for long, regardless) and isn't in trouble from those high rates. The risk was that high rates would cause big problems. They now know that high rates haven't caused big problems. It seems a pretty rational decision to me. Otherwise what? We have restrictions every winter from now on? There's a nasty bug around most winters.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2022)

I'm not actually being critical of their approach in the way it sounds like you think I am. I reported their explanation for the dropping of restrictions with a pretty straight face and spoke of how the intensive care data can explain that decision in the ways other data cannot if people just use what they've learnt to expect from soaring case rates in previous waves as their main guide.

Keep in mind how angry and blunt I get when I think a complete pandemic catastrophe of timing or strength of measures is happening somewhere. I am a long way away from that position at the moment, even when it comes to the current UK approach to an extent at least. But also consider that I'm not exactly a cheerleader for establishment attitudes, priorities etc when it comes to public health in non-pandemic times, so even when we arent in an acute phase of the pandemic I'm not likely to be in 100% approval mode. 

And I'm not inclined to talk about no risk when there is still some lurking in theory with this virus due to ongoing unknowns about the future. For this reason I'm not going to make claims about what will be normal or necessary in any future winters, and I would suggest that my stance that is actually not very far removed from the rhetoric of many governments. They reserve the right to act if the shit were to hit the fan again in future, and the door is still open to that even at times like these when they have the numbers more on their side than before, and are confident enough to speak of 'the end' in various ways. Its the end with an asterisk and some small print. And there will be various opportunities to see how much that evolves during 2022, eg we will eventually discover to what extent the powers that be in various countries are prepared to scale back on mass testing.

Declaring the acute phase of the pandemic to be over is a tricky business because the pandemic description is a global thing, and because of the usual variant uncertainties. What we are starting to see is that the current circumstances start to allow more and more individual countries to see themselves as moving beyond the acute phase of the pandemic, largely because they've had the lions share of vaccine supply. Assuming such progress holds, much of the old normal returns, a slightly modified version of the old orthodox approach but with some lessons learnt and much enhanced testing and still plenty of public attention that will fade gradually in the absence of notable setbacks. 

When countries reach that phase and manage to sustain it for a while, we move on to questions such as how high levels are when in states approximating 'endemic equilibrium', and whether that requires any new ways of organising health services etc to cope at the same time as dealing with other health backlogs. eg in the UK, the ambulance service buckled a fair bit even in the vaccine era, and that may require some ongoing work to rectify fully. And then assuming these endemic periods will be punctuated by epidemic waves from time to time, authorities will want to consider the potential of each epidemic wave as it arrives, via variables such as the disease severity of the virus at that time, and how well they think vaccine and other immune protections will hold up on that occasion. If those factors deem it still likely that things will stay within the range that the orthodox approach can deal with, then we wont be asked to make very heavy changes to our behaviour. But things like public health guidance, press attention and mood music changes will still be part of our lives because they were before this pandemic, they are part of the old normal, as is me talking about them here. But the volume will be lower than that which was deemed essential by people like me and the authorities during the pandemic. And the audience will be smaller and compromised of a greater proportion of people who have personal, professional or political reasons to pay much attention to the plight of those still vulnerable to severe health outcomes from this virus beyond the acute pandemic phase.


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2022)

Oops I forgot to include vaccine waning uncertainties in that description.

Will Israel continue to provide early clues about such matters? I'm not sure. Their intensive care data trends didnt look great when I looked at them briefly using the site I linked to earlier when talking about Denmark. But I need to augment such data with quotes from their authorities, news reports etc to see what the actual story is and/or how its being presented.


----------



## teuchter (Jan 27, 2022)

I noticed yesterday that rates in Israel have really gone shooting up.


----------



## a_chap (Jan 27, 2022)

teuchter where'd you get those graphs from?


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2022)

I've only had a brief chance to look at news from Israel. Much of it is from around 3 weeks ago when they were talking about the massive increase i cases to come, plus the easing of restrictions.

But here is a sample of some more recent news. Its the same sort of picture as has being presented for other countries, including confidence that systems wont be overwhelmed, also featuring some comparisons to the UK. But since their booster timing was ahead of ours, and this wave is behind us, there is also an expansion of their 4th dose campaign, but not to the extent some recommended:









						1 in 20 Israelis infected, yet experts optimistic Omicron won’t defeat hospitals
					

Virus cases have passed half a million and are about to peak, but all indications are that the number of seriously ill patients is small enough to avoid health system crisis




					www.timesofisrael.com
				












						Israel approves fourth COVID vaccine shots for vulnerable over-18s
					

Boosters will also be available to carers of those at-risk due to medical conditions and others with high risk of exposure to virus




					www.timesofisrael.com
				












						‘I see death daily’: Under record strain, doctor describes misery of Omicron wards
					

Ariel Rokach speaks to ToI minutes after yet another patient dies; hospitals will cope, he says, but doctors are being pushed to their limits, emotionally and physically




					www.timesofisrael.com
				




I wouldnt describe their intensive care numbers as mirroring the pattern seen in the UK, they havent seen an 'Omicron drop', but they were starting from a different point before the Omicron surge, having dealt with the previous wave quite differently to how the UK did. All the same this picture requires further explanation.









						Number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care (ICU)
					

An interactive visualization from Our World in Data.




					ourworldindata.org


----------



## teuchter (Jan 27, 2022)

a_chap said:


> teuchter where'd you get those graphs from?











						An interactive visualization of COVID-19 | 91-DIVOC
					

An interactive, data-forward visualization of COVID-19 data by Prof. Wade at The University of Illinois.  Updated daily.




					91-divoc.com


----------



## elbows (Jan 27, 2022)




----------



## extra dry (Jan 27, 2022)

Good news from Africa, longish interview with two Doctors in Africa talking about what happening in the wards etc.  Sorry if it too long or boring or whatever.


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2022)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> Russia doing quite bad with deaths shooting to their highest level since the start of the pandemic, and that is the underestimated daily reports which tend to be revised seriously higher up later on.



I was just mucking around with excess deaths data and I see that between the start of January 2020 and the end of December 2021 Russia has had 1.08 million excess deaths.









						COVID-19 Data Explorer
					

Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems




					ourworldindata.org


----------



## elbows (Jan 30, 2022)

And up to the end of October 2021 Australia had 15,315 less deaths than would otherwise have been expected based on the level of all-cause deaths in recent pre-pandemic years.


----------



## elbows (Feb 1, 2022)




----------



## MrCurry (Feb 2, 2022)

Denmark thinks it’s all over apparently.  I have a feeling Sweden might follow soon with lifting restrictions as Tegnell has been hinting at it.









						Denmark Covid restrictions lifted despite increase in cases
					

It is the first EU country to drop nearly all restrictions, despite relatively high case numbers.



					www.bbc.com


----------



## elbows (Feb 2, 2022)

Yes I covered the Danish approach on the previous page, especially        #10,613    

Many countries will take the same sort of approach when their intensive care numbers do what Denmarks have done, regardless of cases. ( Number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care (ICU) ). This is part of whats driven the WHO to say things like those in my post above.


----------



## MrCurry (Feb 2, 2022)

elbows said:


> Yes I covered the Danish approach on the previous page, especially        #10,613
> 
> Many countries will take the same sort of approach when their intensive care numbers do what Denmarks have done, regardless of cases. ( Number of COVID-19 patients in intensive care (ICU) ). This is part of whats driven the WHO to say things like those in my post above.


Sorry didn‘t read that far back as I’d expected that any discussion of it would‘ve been in the past few days. But I see you’ve covered it.

It will, in any case, provide a good case study that other countries can learn from.


----------



## spring-peeper (Feb 2, 2022)




----------



## elbows (Feb 2, 2022)

The fact that 'trust' is seen as a surprising factor by some is indicative of part of the problem!

I'll discuss the actual report on the nerdy detail thread. There are plenty of factors not focussed on by press articles it seems.


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Feb 2, 2022)

i bought new razorblades this morning to celebrate no masks.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Feb 2, 2022)

Boris Sprinkler said:


> i bought new razorblades this morning to celebrate no masks.


masks work better on a properly shaved face.


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Feb 2, 2022)

Also remember to not gurn at people on the metro any more.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 2, 2022)

Berm?


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 2, 2022)

elbows said:


> The fact that 'trust' is seen as a surprising factor by some is indicative of part of the problem!
> 
> I'll discuss the actual report on the nerdy detail thread. There are plenty of factors not focussed on by press articles it seems.




Interesting study - though of course data on how much people trust their governments in countries like China and Vietnam, where dissent is not tolerated, is probably of limited usefulness.

One outlier here is Hong Kong, where there is a very high level of distrust of the government but there was also a very strong public response early in the pandemic - people basically introduced their own mask mandate. The distrust did probably contribute to lower vaccine take-up later on though.


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Feb 2, 2022)

8ball said:


> Berm?


edited. Seems it got autocorrected somehow.


----------



## two sheds (Feb 2, 2022)

> berm
> 
> bûrm
> noun​
> ...


----------



## bluescreen (Feb 2, 2022)

Boris Sprinkler said:


> edited. Seems it got autocorrected somehow.


I thought you meant belm.
Which is the sort of thing Dominic Cummings does, so I'm glad I was wrong.


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2022)

Hopefully the following will prove to be the case for at least a prolonged period of time, and I can take a nice long break. I will always retain some doubt, but that doesnt mean I have to go on about that doubt all the time.









						Covid: Europe set for ‘long period of tranquillity’ in pandemic, says WHO
					

Vaccinations, milder Omicron and arrival of spring should keep death rate low as cases rise to all time high




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## teqniq (Feb 3, 2022)

Jeez. If even half of this is true, it's pretty dire (thread):


----------



## 8ball (Feb 3, 2022)

teqniq said:


> Jeez. If even half of this is true, it's pretty dire (thread):




Well, at least they're ahead of us.  By a week or so.


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Feb 3, 2022)

It's not true. He's a loon with an axe to grind. 

He may be a doctor but one not allowed to practice on humans.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 3, 2022)

Boris Sprinkler said:


> It's not true. He's a loon with an axe to grind.
> 
> He may be a doctor but one not allowed to practice on humans.



Some of his concerns about long COVID in children, etc. seem valid, but yeah, he doesn't exactly seem to have strong public health credentials.


----------



## elbows (Feb 3, 2022)

Even if its all completely true its just the equivalent of what we've seen here several times already, including the time that was labelled 'the pingdemic'.

When this stuff isnt strongly coupled with the threat of severe disease levels exceeding health system capacity, we reach the point where states will start to ditch self-isolation rules, so that the societal impact of very large numbers of cases doesnt cause more problems than the lower levels of severe disease can. And thats very much on the agenda for this year.


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 3, 2022)

elbows said:


> Hopefully the following will prove to be the case for at least a prolonged period of time, and I can take a nice long break. I will always retain some doubt, but that doesnt mean I have to go on about that doubt all the time.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Encouraging news, though I'm not sure the message "we have a chance to get the pandemic under control if the fucking maniacs in government don't fuck it all up again" will get through strongly enough.

_But Kluge stressed on Thursday that authorities must use the respite constructively, by continuing vaccine and booster campaigns, protecting the most vulnerable, promoting individual responsibility and intensifying surveillance to detect new variants.

“I believe it is possible to respond to new variants that will inevitably emerge without reinstalling the kind of disruptive measures we needed before,” he said. But he added it must now be a top priority to ensure all countries are equally well protected.

 “This demands a drastic and uncompromising increase in vaccine-sharing across borders,” Kluge said. “We cannot accept vaccine inequity for one more day – vaccines must be for everyone, in the remotest corner of our vast region and beyond._


----------



## teuchter (Feb 3, 2022)

I see that New Zealand now has a border re-opening plan.









						Covid: New Zealand unveils phased border reopening plan
					

It first allows fully jabbed New Zealanders in Australia to return, later expanding to other visitors.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Feb 5, 2022)

A personal observation now that restrictions have ended here. 

Everything is back to normal. I still have masks in my pocket but it seems only people arriving by plane are wearing them. 
(some) People still sprit their hands. 25% of dispensers are empty anyway. 
But its like nothing ever happened. Many people have had Omicron. I have had it (triple vaxxed) caught it in Sweden. It was like a weird flu for a couple of days. But I self isolated for 2 weeks as per instruction.
My daughter caught it a few weeks later (unvaxxed) - she had flu symptoms for a day or so. But only had to isolate a week because restrictions changed.  
We are both classified as immune in our EU certificate.

I do see why people are open to conspiracy theory, and how they are growing, because it has all been so confusing. This thing that was so dangerous we had to be locked up for months is a mild flu. We had the army in charge of disembarking trains at the airport. 

But what is apparent is that major crisis management tests are NOT been run, full disaster programs are not tested, and then when an actual disaster hits, it is run by politicians and their ego's. Massive overreaction, to create alot of spectical. But they did get alot of data from us.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 5, 2022)

Boris Sprinkler said:


> . Massive overreaction, to create alot of spectical. But they did get alot of data from us.


Denmark has got through it with one of the lowest death rates in Europe ... That seems more than just spectacle.


----------



## 2hats (Feb 5, 2022)

More animal reservoir news (USDA) - foxes also likely a good candidate.
DOI: 10.1101/2022.01.27.478082.


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Feb 5, 2022)

teuchter said:


> Denmark has got through it with one of the lowest death rates in Europe ... That seems more than just spectacle.


Im not denying that we got out of this well. 
Im saying its easy to see where conspiracy theories come from.
There was alot of unecessary spectacle. Alot of nonsensicle rules (in the begining masks had to be worn standing up on the train, or in bodegas - but could be removed if for example, you were smoking or sitting), the entire mink industry was decimated because it was found that the animals could transmit the virus. These decisions were made by politicians in whatsapp conversations  which were later deleted because "security".
They had new border controls put up with the police and army working together to offload trans and check peoples papers. 
A border check that never previously existed. To look for what exactly?


----------



## elbows (Feb 5, 2022)

The antidote to such confusion need only contain a few ingredients.

Effective vaccines can make a huge difference to hospitalisation and death rates but sometimes much less difference to the chances of catching it and only having mild symptoms.
Viruses evolve.
There was a strong correlation between age and risk of death.
Different people experience the same disease in very different ways.
There are limits to how many severe cases in a short space of time the health system can cope with.
Authorities make mistakes, and some of the the detail of rules and how they are policed can be stupid.

Even people who werent aware of the detail of most of those points before this pandemic should be capable of grasping most of them. And there is ample opportunity in this world, long before the pandemic, to become aware of that final point. The problem is that the conspiracy-minded only grasp it in one dimension: the corrupt, evil, carefully crafted conspiracy dimension, rather than the full spectrum of reasons that arbitrary authorities, their rules, the enforcers of those rules, and those subjected to those rules can all make absurd mistakes or make a mockery of things via self-interest.


----------



## teuchter (Feb 5, 2022)

Every country threw a bunch of rules and measures at Covid, some of which were badly formulated, stupid without hindsight, stupid with hindsight, or ineffective only with hindsight.

Different countries had different results, and Denmark had some of the best results in Europe. So that would suggest to me that they managed to include quite a few sensible and effective measures along with the questionable ones. If people want to point at countries that introduced a lot of badly conceived measures that didn't work then Denmark seems a poor choice.


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Feb 5, 2022)

Well I don’t live anywhere else so it’s difficult to say, but even at the time it didn’t make sense. 
 Having just been to the mall with the kid to get some food for dinner, you wouldn’t even know there had been a pandemic. It changed overnight. Caution threw it out with the bathwater, you would be extremely trusting to look back at the last 2 years and not think to yourself. Hold on, what was that about?


----------



## elbows (Feb 5, 2022)

teuchter said:


> Every country threw a bunch of rules and measures at Covid, some of which were badly formulated, stupid without hindsight, stupid with hindsight, or ineffective only with hindsight.
> 
> Different countries had different results, and Denmark had some of the best results in Europe. So that would suggest to me that they managed to include quite a few sensible and effective measures along with the questionable ones. If people want to point at countries that introduced a lot of badly conceived measures that didn't work then Denmark seems a poor choice.


Yep.

There are other factors too beyond measures implemented and their timing. Including population density, age structure, obesity levels, levels of trust in authorities, poverty and inequality, sick pay, even height above sea-level. Attempts to analyse these things tend to result in them being able to find patterns that can predict pandemic mortality to a certain extent, but only to a certain extent, there is still a big chunk of the picture they cant predict by looking at those underlying factors. Which doesnt surprise me really, underlying health and patterns of behaviour are not trivial to understand. Perhaps subtle and not so subtle detail in regards care homes and hospital infection control can make quite a difference, perhaps there was some more complexities on the partial prior immunity against severe disease front, eg if the timing of a wave of one of the other human coronaviruses made a temporary difference to severe disease risk in a particular wave.


----------



## elbows (Feb 5, 2022)

Boris Sprinkler said:


> Well I don’t live anywhere else so it’s difficult to say, but even at the time it didn’t make sense.
> Having just been to the mall with the kid to get some food for dinner, you wouldn’t even know there had been a pandemic. It changed overnight. Caution threw it out with the bathwater, you would be extremely trusting to look back at the last 2 years and not think to yourself. Hold on, what was that about?


I dont know what you are talking about really.

We didnt have vaccinated populations or populations with some prior exposure to this virus in the past. Now we do. Thats a gamechanger. And Omicron appears to leave less people needing intensive oxygen support than the Delta strain did.

A pandemic is a pandemic because a new, novel virus arrives that none of our bodies have met before. That situation inevitably doesnt last forever.

Whats hard to understand about the idea that authorities only considered the toughest responses because without them there would be far too many hospitalisations to cope with in the past, but that numbers game has now changed, and so the official response has changed?


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Feb 5, 2022)

The overuse of nonsense legislation by framing data grabs as being necessary to fight a respiratory disease.


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Feb 5, 2022)

The point is not all rules were put in place to fight the disease but we’re used to further different information gathering exercises.


----------



## elbows (Feb 5, 2022)

That tells me more about levels of suspicion and mistrust in authorities and data gatehring than anything else. Although sure, such attitudes are yet another form of data of interest to authorities.

We already lived in an information technology age of mass data gathering long before the pandemic. Most countries have responded in ways deemed compatible with the pre-pandemic attitudes towards policing etc in their countries. The pandemic has certainly built further on those things, but a lot of the justifications are credible and legitimate. Controlling the spread of disease means understanding behaviour and patterns of movement, behaviour and contacts between people, and levels of adherence to the rules.

Certainly it is easy to build on various fears and dystopian visions via various things that have been done in this pandemic. But I can acknowledge that and consider the future potential ramifications without needing to indulge in revisionist history or ignorance about the level of threat this virus posed.


----------



## elbows (Feb 5, 2022)

One thing that the pandemic has somewhat changed in some countries in terms of data gathering is that some stuff that was previously largely covert or not much discussed has become more overt. In some countries where the previous establishment default was to prioritise keeping such things covert, even on occasions at the expense of securing criminal prosecutions, the authorities may have been rather nervous about showing their hand. Some of those may seek to return to the old approach as quickly as possible now that the direct threat from the virus has evolved. Similar stuff probably applies not just to data and surveillance, but also stuff like people showing their papers, passes etc. So its far from clear that the pandemic has enabled them to permanently shift the barriers of what the public deem acceptable.

A sense of legitimacy in regards many measures and changes during the pandemic was achieved because a rather broad spectrum of society were on the same page in terms of understanding the reasons and legitimacy of stuff that was done to combat this pandemic virus. Should the authorities seek to repeat the same sort of thing on another occasion where the threat is less easily demonstrated to be legitimate, I'm not sure they will find anywhere near as much success and compliance.

So I would question the idea that they have actually managed to 'sften us up' for more stuff on these fronts in future. Attitudes towards the borad sharing of medical data in England with private businesses dont seem to have changed beyond the core pandemic stuff. There was also the 'shock and enormity of the situation' with this pandemic which forced authorities and broader society to do stuff that was a departure from business as normal. There wont be the same numbing effects of immense, sudden shock if a similar situation happens again within living memory, and so I would expect more quibbling as well as a better understanding of what measures are actually essential to respond proportionately to the threat.


----------



## Agent Sparrow (Feb 5, 2022)

wrong thread


----------



## Badgers (Feb 9, 2022)




----------



## platinumsage (Feb 10, 2022)

China really squeezing Hong Kong now:

"The BBC's Jeff Li in Hong Kong reports that one pro-Beijing Hong Kong lawmaker has said anyone advocating to live with Covid should be charged under the controversial national security law which has been used to persecute dozens of pro-democracy activists. The lawmaker argued such a policy was akin to starting "biological warfare". 









						Hong Kong's tough Covid laws threatened by virus surge
					

Hong Kong has recorded more than 1,000 Covid infections for the first time since the pandemic began



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## RileyOBlimey (Feb 10, 2022)

Fingers crossed: Prince Charles tests positive for Covid


----------



## gentlegreen (Feb 10, 2022)

RileyOBlimey said:


> Fingers crossed: Prince Charles tests positive for Covid


Apparently he had it early in 2020 and got away with it ... so even if he's not vaccinated he'll be OK ...


----------



## zahir (Feb 11, 2022)




----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Feb 11, 2022)

yolo.


----------



## prunus (Feb 11, 2022)

Boris Sprinkler said:


> yolo.



bnfl


----------



## Yossarian (Feb 11, 2022)

platinumsage said:


> China really squeezing Hong Kong now:
> 
> "The BBC's Jeff Li in Hong Kong reports that one pro-Beijing Hong Kong lawmaker has said anyone advocating to live with Covid should be charged under the controversial national security law which has been used to persecute dozens of pro-democracy activists. The lawmaker argued such a policy was akin to starting "biological warfare".
> 
> ...



The HK government said critics of COVID policy wouldn't be prosecuted under the NSL, though of course it's a fucking disgrace that they had to clarify that issue in the first place.


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Feb 11, 2022)

prunus said:


> bnfl


Bnfl?

British Nuclear Fuels Ltd?


----------



## prunus (Feb 11, 2022)

Boris Sprinkler said:


> Bnfl?
> 
> British Nuclear Fuels Ltd?



Well quite.

But Not For Long is what I was pithily adding.


----------



## Boris Sprinkler (Feb 11, 2022)

Yeah, it didnt make any sense to me at the time. How everything, all precautions, can just disappear overnight. When one month ago my friend was leaving shopping at my door and then running away and I spent 2 weeks isolated.  Now everyone is mingling like nothing ever happened. So yolo is the only way to describe it really.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Feb 11, 2022)

zahir said:


>



I don't agree with him that 'with or of' doesn't matter. And there's also the possibility of 'instead of' to be factored in. One of the striking things about the omicron wave has been that, across many countries in which it is now the overwhelmingly dominant variant, the demise of delta and rise of omicron has been accompanied by a plunge in excess deaths. This is true in Denmark as well. I've put up seven countries here that are all reasonably vaccinated (US is a bit low), and have seen a move from delta to omicron between December and January during their winter months. The UK line stops at the end of December, unfortunately not updated recently, but its line for January would show four consecutive weeks of negative excess deaths. 



So while the headline covid deaths figure is higher than it was during the delta wave in these places, something is going on such that January was not a bad month. Digging a bit deeper into the UK figures (well, England, but it's the same story for Scotland and Wales), deaths from respiratory infections are lower than average currently, even factoring in Covid. Whether acquired omicron immunity provides some cross-protection against other nasties, I don't know, but whatever the cause, the patterns are becoming rather robust. Delta deaths were 'on top of' other deaths. Omicron deaths appear more like 'instead of'. 



Microsoft Power BI


----------



## kabbes (Feb 11, 2022)

I would interpret that^^ on the face of it as meaning that the precautions taken to protect against COVID have also helped to protect against other causes of death.  Τhat has caused a reduction in other deaths that has partially compensated for COVID deaths.  Remove those precautions, however, and your benefit against other causes will also disappear.


----------



## 8ball (Feb 11, 2022)

kabbes said:


> I would interpret that^^ on the face of it as meaning that the precautions taken to protect against COVID have also helped to protect against other causes of death.  Τhat has caused a reduction in other deaths that has partially compensated for COVID deaths.  Remove those precautions, however, and your benefit against other causes will also disappear.



Fewer things to die from when you’re not really living life..


----------



## kabbes (Feb 11, 2022)

8ball said:


> Fewer things to die from when you’re not really living life..


Exactly

No, wait


----------



## bluescreen (Feb 11, 2022)

Also, I'd say that those people who died prematurely from Covid can't die again, so their deaths have already been counted.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2022)

kabbes said:


> I would interpret that^^ on the face of it as meaning that the precautions taken to protect against COVID have also helped to protect against other causes of death.  Τhat has caused a reduction in other deaths that has partially compensated for COVID deaths.  Remove those precautions, however, and your benefit against other causes will also disappear.


Yes. There has been a little bit of flu around this season but nothing like the levels seen normally, which has a big impact on excess death calculations at this time of year.

Also whilst there was quite a large spike in RSV, its timing was rather different to whats normally seen, eg in the UK there was a wave of it in summer. I cant really say how much impact this has had on winter deaths, since RSV tends to be associated with strain on paediatric hospital capacity, and that was certain seen in the UK last summer.

We did see the same thing with lack of flu deaths in the previous winter too, and thats where the nature of Omicron, the booster campaign and other population immunity effects have made a difference to this picture too. ie if covid deaths had been at anything like the previous winters numbers in the UK, then the huge reduction in flu deaths would have been replaced by covid deaths and we'd still have seen plenty of excess mortality.

The future of when influenza waves will return is uncertain. The standard assumption will be that it returns to patterns seen before the pandemic at some point, but I tend to prefer to wait and see what actually happens just in case there are any surprises. I believe one of the B strains of influenza has 'gone missing' and only time will tell whether that particular lineage has been wiped out or whether it will mount a resurgence eventually. I suppose its also possible that the return of flu might initially happen with non-typical seasonal timing, due to all the disruption that happend to its traditional timing, different population immunity picture etc in the last two years.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2022)

Note for example that the baseline R0 of influenza is thought to be quite a lot lower than recent Covid variants, so mitigation against Covid quite probably had a larger impact on preventing influenza transmission than it was able to have against the likes of Delta and Omicron. The number of influenza deaths that we've 'lived with' routinely are not inevitable, and I'd expect masks and infection control procedures in care homes and hospitals to have had quite the impact on influenza during this pandemic. Shame there is a lack of mainstream pressure to consider how the lessons learnt from the pandemic could be applied to saving many lives every winter from influenza and other respiratory infections. Within health etc institutions perhaps some lessons will endure, unclear at this stage. If the will was there we could probably gradually save more lives than were lost in this pandemic.

For example as I've pointed out before, since the start of 2020 Austrailia has had over 15,000 less deaths than expected based on previous years averages and excess death calculations. Obviously we arent going to ban travel and have heavy lockdowns in order to make that a permanent thing. And without control measures even a steady trickle of covid deaths will mount up over time. Also, reduced economic activity initially results in less deaths, another fact that wont be dwelt upon by mainstream capitalism. At the start of the pandemic and lockdowns we heard quite a bit about pollution and its health impacts too, and thats gone well off the radar these days. All the same, other measures that arent so drastic could still be expected to save lives/extend lives.


----------



## weltweit (Feb 11, 2022)

The vaccination levels of people in poor and developing countries is still so low to be a scandal and one that will come back to bite the richer countries as unvaccinated spread is mainly where variants are produced and we have seen clearly with Delta and Omicron that variants can be around the world in no time. 

There is no reason why the next variant might be "mild like Omicron", it could instead spread like Omicron but be deadlier than Delta. Or it could escape our vaccines, who can tell? 

It is surely the UN or the WHO's role to organise worldwide vaccination, and it should be countries like the UK's role to pay our fair share of the costs. When will it happen?


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2022)

Well going on about that stuff has been a major focus of the WHOs words for a long time now. Too many powerful countries do little more than pay lip-service to the concepts though, so its a long hard slog. I might hope that more is done by countries like the UK once their own establishments 'needs' for securing a huge chunk of supply are different, but I have my doubts.

As for the notion that large unvaccinated populations are where the main threat from future variants comes from, this subject is all fucked up these days, there is double-think and contradiction aplenty that rhetoric does not take proper account of. The actual reality seems to be that there are multiple different sorts of theoretical mutation risks. For example, evolutionary theory that considers 'natural selection pressures' implies that when it comes to vaccine-evading mutations, that pressure actually increases when you have a highly vaccinated population but still huge numbers of ongoing infections. ie in order to still thrive, random mutations that can bypass immunity will end up with a big advantage that could eventually result in their dominance. So arent countries like the UK still a massive threat on that front? Other possibilities exist too, and perhaps we will get lucky eg if the virus runs out of possible mutations that make a huge difference, or those differences also change disease severity in a positive way. But I'd certainly suggest that any country which stops trying to reduce the number of infections is theoretically increasing the risk.

There might be other factors too, eg if a huge chunk of those genetically susceptible have already been killed off. And the picture of individual immunity is probably far more complex than current understanding can properly deal with. eg partial immune escape, whether thats from vaccine-induced immunity or immunity stemming from previous infections, may not be enough to prevent reinfection but may still permanently change the risk of hospitalisation and death. Not completely, but enough to stop the possible number of hospital admissions so easily and rapidly breaching the thresholds that force authorities to impose heavy restrictions.


----------



## elbows (Feb 11, 2022)

With that in mind, I expect the default presumption which drive the current attitudes of authorities in various countries is very much centred around traditional thinking. ie what makes a pandemic a pandemic in the first place - a new virus that the entire global population have not met before. We are travelling beyond that phase, and so we hear about a future with endemics and epidemics instead of acute pandemic stuff.

Under those conditions and with that traditional thinking, we never quite end up all the way back to square one. Under those conditions we can still have continual deaths at lower quantities, and quite possibly nasty waves every so many years that involves a more substantial spike in deaths. But the immunity picture will remain complex and nuanced, and so expectations tend to lean towards the sort of things we see when a strain of influenza bypasses some chunk of population immunity and can kill in reasonably high numbers for a period of time. Such circumstances can strain hospital capacity for periods of time, but so long as the immunity picture doesnt involve everyone being 100% naive to the virus, and so long as lots of pharmaceutical options to take the edge off it are still available, these circumstances are deemed to be largely compatible with business as usual.


----------



## komodo (Feb 11, 2022)

An example of why flu deaths may be lower. January New Year 20, pre-covid,  111 advised us to take 93 year old Dad to emergency walk-in clinic with a suspected UTI. Brief consultation with GP and nothing ascertained that we hadn’t already told them. Broad spectrum antibiotics prescribed. He probably picked up influenza type A from another patient or staff there (none of his other contacts had flu). A few days later he collapsed and spent 3 weeks in hospital with flu/pneumonia. Made a good recovery and has since survived COVID.

I know there‘s not much flu about now  but also old people are not forced to hang around in GP surgeries like they used to. Most prescribing done over the phone  which for people like him is of benefit since less exposure to all types of bugs.


----------



## Badgers (Feb 12, 2022)




----------



## Aladdin (Feb 12, 2022)

Boris Sprinkler said:


> Yeah, it didnt make any sense to me at the time. How everything, all precautions, can just disappear overnight. When one month ago my friend was leaving shopping at my door and then running away and I spent 2 weeks isolated.  Now everyone is mingling like nothing ever happened. So yolo is the only way to describe it really.



It's almost as if someone knows we are heading into a worse worldwide scenario and thinking "let's give them some freedom before it all kicks off "


----------



## The39thStep (Feb 16, 2022)




----------



## extra dry (Feb 22, 2022)

Badgers said:


>



Looks like an inflation of deaths.


----------



## Chairman Meow (Feb 22, 2022)

The West Australian border is re-opening on March 3rd after almost two years. We are at over 95% double vaxxed and the booster rate is expected to be around 80% by then. After two years of practically zero covid we are now at around 250 a day and this is expected to increase rapidly, so we are all wearing masks and gearing up to WFH where we can. I thought you might be interested to see the modelling, which was released today.



			https://www.wa.gov.au/system/files/2022-02/WA-Health-COVID-Modelling.pdf
		


More personally, this means my husband can get back to Ireland to say goodbye to his terminally ill little brother. I am very worried about him travelling, but it has to be done. Just trying to get it organised (his bloody passport is almost out of date too which we just discovered!) So fingers crossed all that works out ok, because if they change the rules and he gets stuck outside WA, we are fucked.


----------



## ice-is-forming (Feb 22, 2022)

Chairman Meow said:


> The West Australian border is re-opening on March 3rd after almost two years. We are at over 95% double vaxxed and the booster rate is expected to be around 80% by then. After two years of practically zero covid we are now at around 250 a day and this is expected to increase rapidly, so we are all wearing masks and gearing up to WFH where we can. I thought you might be interested to see the modelling, which was released today.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Qld modelling was completely out in a good way,  and after opening our borders on Dec 5th we've peaked, and we've rolled back a heap of restrictions and even mask mandates end next week. I hope you're as lucky, and that your husband can get away and home again with out getting locked out. McGowan is a bit trigger happy.

My head office is in WA and they really pay no attention to anything that happens on the east coast 
They're trying to impose their new restrictions on us.. that we've actually been following for almost 3 months without them noticing.


----------



## miss direct (Feb 23, 2022)

Schools still closed here in Bangladesh and no online learning. They're set to go back at the start of March. 

Masking is done properly here too. To be fair, it's so polluted and so many flies in places that it's quite useful wearing a mask even without covid. 

No idea about testing or cases, but a colleague of mine ended up stuck here due to a positive result. I will be basically isolating myself as much as possible in my last few weeks as I could not cope if I couldn't leave.


----------



## brogdale (Mar 1, 2022)

Hmmm...time to think again?


----------



## BristolEcho (Mar 1, 2022)

brogdale said:


> Hmmm...time to think again?



What does it say in French? Another variant I am assuming?


----------



## Numbers (Mar 1, 2022)

BristolEcho said:


> What does it say in French? Another variant I am assuming?





> At least 10 cases of #Deltacron , a recombinant between the Delta and Omicron variants, have been identified in France. Given their genomic structure, "our main hypothesis is that they come from a single event, before spreading everywhere."


----------



## platinumsage (Mar 1, 2022)

A non-story really. Just Pagel keeping her Twitter feed going.

This variant is not concerning.


----------



## l'Otters (Mar 1, 2022)

Yeah sure I’ll take some random anonymous poster off the internet’s assessment of whether a variant is of concern or not.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Mar 1, 2022)

It has been reported for a while now including the UK (32 case mentionned in the fail a few days ago)
In other news Deer to human infection spotted in Canada.


----------



## platinumsage (Mar 2, 2022)

l'Otters said:


> Yeah sure I’ll take some random anonymous poster off the internet’s assessment of whether a variant is of concern or not.



 Carry on doomscrolling then, be my guest.

But perhaps you could explain why a variant that is a combination of variants that we a) have effective vaccines for, b) have developed high population infection-acquired immunity against and c) are very much a known knowns, should be something to get more concerned about than existing variants or all the other conceivable variants that feature novel mutations?


----------



## l'Otters (Mar 2, 2022)

I’ve never seen you post anything other than utter bollocks on this subject. If I come back and post more about this here it won’t be for your benefit. That’s a lost cause afaict.


----------



## platinumsage (Mar 2, 2022)

l'Otters said:


> I’ve never seen you post anything other than utter bollocks on this subject. If I come back and post more about this here it won’t be for your benefit. That’s a lost cause afaict.



I take that to mean "no I can't explain why".


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 2, 2022)

Shame this study is arriving so late in the pandemic, I think it "COVID directly attacks the penis and testicles" would definitely have helped with anti-infection messaging earlier on.

_The coronavirus may infect tissue within the male genital tract, new research on rhesus macaques shows. The finding suggests that symptoms like erectile dysfunction reported by some Covid patients may be caused directly by the virus, not by inflammation or fever that often accompany the disease._









						The coronavirus invades cells in the penis and testicles of monkeys, researchers discover.
					

The study suggests that symptoms such as erectile dysfunction reported by some Covid patients may be caused directly by the virus.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## 2hats (Mar 4, 2022)

BristolEcho said:


> What does it say in French? Another variant I am assuming?


A recombinant. However we now have evidence for recombination happening all the time. It's not necessarily an issue (and does not appear to be in this case). However it would be foolish to assume that a recombinant of previous VOC only inherits properties (or a subset thereof) from the parent lineages. Even small changes in nucleotide sequences can potentially bring about significant changes in pathogenicity due to the subtle (and not so subtle) interplay of variation of electrostatic forces with differing protein expression and the high degree of conformational plasticity of this particular virus. Consider, perhaps, novel protein folding arrangements that shield significant numbers of what were previously key epitopes, for example. That's not to say that will happen, or is even likely, but it would be irresponsible not to monitor it.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 5, 2022)

I guess everyone is distracted by Ukraine but the covid situation in Hong Kong is not getting a lot of attention - it seems to now be completely out of control there.











						Hong Kong COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
					

Hong Kong Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.




					www.worldometers.info
				












						Hong Kong bet on zero-Covid. Now it's facing a 'preventable disaster'
					

Morgues are nearly at capacity, hospitals overwhelmed and, as fears grow of a citywide lockdown, panicked shoppers have stripped supermarket shelves bare.




					edition.cnn.com


----------



## platinumsage (Mar 5, 2022)

Yeah they did really shit on vaccinating old people:


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2022)

teuchter said:


> I guess everyone is distracted by Ukraine but the covid situation in Hong Kong is not getting a lot of attention - it seems to now be completely out of control there.



Yeah its become a tragic and disgraceful example of what happens if you claim a zero-covid strategy but dont actually do the things necessary to implement that strategy or dont have an exit strategy that is compatible with the timing realities of a more transmissive variant.

I've gone on about merits of zero covid in the past, via things like Australias overall deaths. But I absolutely do not support zero covid when it becomes empty rhetoric not backed by appropriate policies. And policies need to get tougher in the face of more transmissive variants, and if that strength of policy isnt realistic then you absolutely have to have an exit strategy that involves at the bare minimum achieving a very high uptake of vaccines in the older age groups. And if you dont achieve that, you absolutely have to protect care home residents and the elderly in general in other ways. Hong Kong appears to have miserably failed with all of that stuff, leaving many people extremely vulnerable.

I did not want somewhere in the world to end up as a really obvious and deadly example of the largest flaws of 'Omicron is mild' thinking, but Hong Kong seems to have become that example  There were other examples including the USA for a time but people found various ways to quibble about that, and I dont think there is much room for that sort of quibbling with the Hong Kong situation.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 5, 2022)

I don't really understand how they managed to mess up on doing the one most obviously important thing - vaccinating elderly people. Especially when vaccination rates seem pretty good among the rest of the population.


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2022)

teuchter said:


> I don't really understand how they managed to mess up on doing the one most obviously important thing - vaccinating elderly people. Especially when vaccination rates seem pretty good among the rest of the population.



It was one of the more obvious theoretical downsides of the zero-covid approach (the other being people not liking the strength of measures that approach entails). Theres always been the fear that countries and populations who were shielded via zero-covid from most of the death in earlier waves, would end up not being motivated enough to get vaccinated when the vaccination era arrived. Those fears didnt come to full fruition in most zero covid countries, but in Hong Kong it has. I havent tried to dig into the picture to determine how much of this grotesque failure was down to broad population attitudes, and how much was down to the most obvious of government and institutional failings.


----------



## bluescreen (Mar 5, 2022)

teuchter said:


> I guess everyone is distracted by Ukraine but the covid situation in Hong Kong is not getting a lot of attention - it seems to now be completely out of control there.
> 
> View attachment 312914View attachment 312915
> 
> ...


Jessiedog has been posting about this daily on the Hong Kong: what next? thread.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 5, 2022)

bluescreen said:


> Jessiedog has been posting about this daily on the Hong Kong: what next? thread.


Yes, that's what alerted me to it.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 5, 2022)

elbows said:


> It was one of the more obvious theoretical downsides of the zero-covid approach (the other being people not liking the strength of measures that approach entails). Theres always been the fear that countries and populations who were shielded via zero-covid from most of the death in earlier waves, would end up not being motivated enough to get vaccinated when the vaccination era arrived. Those fears didnt come to full fruition in most zero covid countries, but in Hong Kong it has. I havent tried to dig into the picture to determine how much of this grotesque failure was down to broad population attitudes, and how much was down to the most obvious of government and institutional failings.


You'd think that if there was low motivation in the population you'd see it in all age groups. Somehow they have managed to end up with lower age groups quite well protected, but not older ones.


----------



## elbows (Mar 5, 2022)

teuchter said:


> You'd think that if there was low motivation in the population you'd see it in all age groups. Somehow they have managed to end up with lower age groups quite well protected, but not older ones.



In theory I suppose if you'd motivated the younger population via the equivalent of 'vaccine passports' then you might see that pattern, especially if the vaccination programme wasnt pro-active in terms of the practicalities of giving easy access to vaccines for the eldery as opposed to the young and mobile. But thats just theory, I absolutely have not checked actual realities in Hong Kong.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 7, 2022)

The global death toll hit 6 million today.


----------



## Yossarian (Mar 8, 2022)

elbows said:


> In theory I suppose if you'd motivated the younger population via the equivalent of 'vaccine passports' then you might see that pattern, especially if the vaccination programme wasnt pro-active in terms of the practicalities of giving easy access to vaccines for the eldery as opposed to the young and mobile. But thats just theory, I absolutely have not checked actual realities in Hong Kong.



The government didn't make vaccinating older people a big priority, and older Hong Kongers were more likely to be worried about side effects. 

Maybe older people were also more likely to believe the government line, handed down from Beijing, that its policies could keep COVID away permanently.

_Stephanie Law, an executive committee member from the Elderly Services Association of Hong Kong, said for many older residents, concerns about Covid vaccine side effects outweighed the risks of getting the disease.

"In the past, a lot of people felt that it's not a priority to have the vaccine," she said. Now, care workers feel "helpless" as the virus spreads through homes, where some residents live four or six people to a room, she said.

Karen Grepin, an associate professor at the School of Public Health at the University of Hong Kong, said the narrative in the city had evolved to the point that people had started to believe Hong Kong could keep the virus out forever.

"People really started to believe that even the miniscule risk associated with vaccination was higher than the risk of Covid," she said.

"We are paying for that complacency."_





__





						CNN - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos
					

View the latest news and breaking news today for U.S., world, weather, entertainment, politics and health at CNN.com.



					lite.cnn.com


----------



## 2hats (Mar 8, 2022)

teuchter said:


> I guess everyone is distracted by Ukraine but the covid situation in Hong Kong is not getting a lot of attention - it seems to now be completely out of control there.


It's almost as if omicron isn't "mild" for those with no prior immunity.


----------



## belboid (Mar 8, 2022)

2hats said:


> It's almost as if omicron isn't "mild" for those with no prior immunity.


Mate of mine got omicron two weeks ago after being triple jabbed.  Relatively fine for ten days but then rushed into hospital cos she’d got a blood clot on her lungs.


----------



## 2hats (Mar 8, 2022)

SARS-CoV-2 infection (whether serious, mild, or even asymptomatic) now known to have potential implications for later vascular, cardiac and cognitive issues (at least) beyond that of the initial respiratory episode (in some cases can be irrespective of degrees of immunity, though as previously discussed, immunoresponse to vaccination, like exposure to the virus itself, is heterogenous).


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 8, 2022)

belboid said:


> Mate of mine got omicron two weeks ago after being triple jabbed.  Relatively fine for ten days but then rushed into hospital cos she’d got a blood clot on her lungs.



That’s scary. How long after her third dose did she get ill?


----------



## belboid (Mar 8, 2022)

MrCurry said:


> That’s scary. How long after her third dose did she get ill?


When did they start giving them out? she was in early cos she’s a nurse so would have got it pretty much straight away


----------



## MrCurry (Mar 8, 2022)

belboid said:


> When did they start giving them out? she was in early cos she’s a nurse so would have got it pretty much straight away



I’m not sure, but sounds like it was a while between vaccination and infection then. They say the protection from the vaccine against omicron only lasts 2-3 months, so I guess she’s been caught out by that. They should really be giving nurses jabs every couple of months perhaps.


----------



## 2hats (Mar 8, 2022)

Third dose boosters in the UK started to ramp up in the second half of September 2021.


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 8, 2022)

2hats said:


> Third dose boosters in the UK started to ramp up in the second half of September 2021.


but they seem largely to have tailed off


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 8, 2022)

This article by Ed Yong is well worth reading








						How Did This Many Deaths Become Normal?
					

The U.S. is nearing 1 million recorded COVID-19 deaths without the social reckoning that such a tragedy should provoke. Why?




					www.theatlantic.com


----------



## zahir (Mar 9, 2022)

This also looks like an indication of spread in crowds outdoors.


----------



## teuchter (Mar 9, 2022)

zahir said:


> This also looks like an indication of spread in crowds outdoors.



Not really; it looks like an indication of spread associated with carnival celebrations, which don't take place exclusively outdoors.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 9, 2022)

Indeed: an example of hossen en stuiteren at carnival


----------



## zahir (Mar 9, 2022)

Yes, I'm more familiar with carnival in Greece which is pretty much all outdoors. I don't know what it's like in the Netherlands.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 9, 2022)

There's the processions outdoors but a lot of traditional carnival is inside. I always went to Stratumseind in Eindhoven which was outside and proper rather than ooompah music, loved it there.


----------



## Indeliblelink (Mar 11, 2022)

Indeliblelink said:


> The global death toll hit 6 million today.



18 million dead is the real figure they recon








						Covid deaths probably three times higher than records say
					

Official records say six million have died, but the true figure may be over 18 million, say researchers.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				



I'll repeat that for those not paying attention.
*18 Million Dead because of Covid*


----------



## weltweit (Mar 14, 2022)

I see China is having trouble now keeping up its total closures. They have lots of new cases and have just closed access to some large areas of the country. 









						China locks down province of 24m as new Covid infections rise
					

Jilin residents ordered to stay at home and reservists sent to disinfect streets as 1,437 new cases reported across China




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## miss direct (Mar 22, 2022)

I'm in Bangladesh. Our company policy is masks to be worn in classrooms, which I'm pleased about because it's cramped and we can't open the windows (it's 40C, dusty and noisy) 

Outside the classroom, very few bother. It's as though the virus doesn't exist here. Personally, I have managed to avoid it so far and have no intentions of catching it here, where healthcare is dire, and I'll be confined to my room and not get paid. I will continue with careful masking and constant reminding certain students repeatedly to wear their mask properly. Bored of being the mask police.


----------



## Cloo (Mar 31, 2022)

Interesting piece from NYT on Africa - younger demographic or poor recording can't really account for why deaths have been so low, so it sounds like no one really knows why the toll across the continuent hasn't been greater. The other thing that's then a mystery is why just South Africa - again, they don't think it can rest solely on recording of cases; as the article explores, there would be a lot of 'social' signs, if nothing else, if large numbers were dying in other countries.









						Trying to Solve a Covid Mystery: Africa’s Low Death Rates
					

The coronavirus was expected to devastate the continent, but higher-income and better-prepared countries appear to have fared far worse.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## Mation (Apr 1, 2022)

Cloo said:


> Interesting piece from NYT on Africa - younger demographic or poor recording can't really account for why deaths have been so low, so it sounds like no one really knows why the toll across the continuent hasn't been greater. The other thing that's then a mystery is why just South Africa - again, they don't think it can rest solely on recording of cases; as the article explores, there would be a lot of 'social' signs, if nothing else, if large numbers were dying in other countries.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I can't read the article as I've reached my free limit, apparently. But it doesn't seem that much of a mystery that countries with really good public health/infection control programmes might fare well. HIV, as a sexually transmitted infection, is perhaps a different beast.

Yossarian posted an article in 2020 about the racism in covid coverage when, again, the NYT was mystified by Africa. Here:


Yossarian said:


> I thought this was an interesting perspective - the Western world has singled New Zealand out for praise in controlling the virus, while other success stories in Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean are either ignored or treated as puzzling mysteries.
> 
> 
> 
> The Overwhelming Racism of COVID Coverage


Still seems relevant.


----------



## Sue (Apr 4, 2022)

My company's head office is in Germany. Everyone's still meant to be wfh but if anyone does need to go into the office there, there's mandatory PCR testing. So you turn up, PCR, results in an hour and only then (if negative) are you allowed in. And once in, people have to wear masks.

I've no idea if this is required now in that part of Germany (BavarIa) or if my company is being specially strict but bit of a contrast to what's going on here.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Apr 4, 2022)

Twitter thread on the damning report into Sweden's hands-off approach to controlling Covid:


----------



## teuchter (Apr 4, 2022)

This bit though



To me it shows that countries like Norway and Denmark did well, as much as it shows Sweden did badly.

How badly Sweden has done (so far) depends on which countries you compare it to. It's not done much worse than Germany, and it's done better than the UK, France, and the EU average. At least in terms of recorded deaths.


----------



## Buddy Bradley (Apr 4, 2022)

Worldbeating.


----------



## klang (Apr 4, 2022)

Sue said:


> My company's head office is in Germany. Everyone's still meant to be wfh but if anyone does need to go into the office there, there's mandatory PCR testing. So you turn up, PCR, results in an hour and only then (if negative) are you allowed in. And once in, people have to wear masks.
> 
> I've no idea if this is required now in that part of Germany (BavarIa) or if my company is being specially strict but bit of a contrast to what's going on here.


Bavaria dropped mandatory mask wearing today, only on public transport it is still required.


----------



## Sue (Apr 4, 2022)

klang said:


> Bavaria dropped mandatory mask wearing today, only on public transport it is still required.


So maybe my company are just being super-strict then?!


----------



## elbows (Apr 4, 2022)

teuchter said:


> To me it shows that countries like Norway and Denmark did well, as much as it shows Sweden did badly.
> 
> How badly Sweden has done (so far) depends on which countries you compare it to. It's not done much worse than Germany, and it's done better than the UK, France, and the EU average. At least in terms of recorded deaths.



Well we know that there are many complications with comparisons, due to the large number of factors, some of which are still poorly understood, which affected the how badly different countries fared in each wave.

But its clear that aspects of population are a factor, as well as structural and economic issues, travel links to other places, and the size of the nations in question.

When we try to limit ourselves only to some of the most prominent of those, it is understandable that Sweden is compared to its neighbours and is judged to have perfomred very poorly by having suffered death rates more comparable to some very large countries. But in some respects I might cut them a degree of slack by acknolwedging for example how badly Belgium fared on such charts.

Beyond judging which comparisons are 'fair', its completely understandable that Sweden has this much attention on its performance because a) they went out of their way to go on about how they were taking a different approach, b) shitheads who favoured that approach were keen to hold Sweden up as an example of success, until such vile propaganda became unsustainable, and c) the shitheads will always be looking to rewrite history and restore such claims. So its important to dwell on the detail of how Sweden attempted to pursue the herd immunity approach, and ponder how different it could have been there if they had not.

Even though we are not going to be able to properly tell these complex stories neatly using a single set of data, we can still look at cumulative mortality over time and see some rather obvious patterns which very much relate to pandemic policy and policy timing. And since policies have changed in many places in the Omicron wave, we can also see some new patterns showing up in data for the Omicron wave. There is a bit of 'transmissibility of Omicron' in that recent picture, and in places like Hong Kong we can also see the horrific implications of inappropriate vaccine uptake showing up clearly. But all the same we can see how a 'living with Covid' policy in various countries where this change stands in contrast to their earlier policies and timing of measures, has propelled some countries up the leaderboard compared to where they sat after the first few waves. Well actually due to them waiting till this phase of the pandemic, a bunch of them havent actually seen their ranks climb relative to others, but they've still seen notable increases to their deaths per million, via increases that were sustained for longer periods than in previous waves where they slammed on the brakes. And o er a much longer period we can see the consequences of the brakes not being applied consistently in countries like the USA and Russia. And we have the UK as an example of late braking the first few times, and only mild braking during Delta and Omicron, albeit coupled with good vaccination rates.

And yes this data isnt perfect, for example Russia fares even worse when using overall excess mortality instead, but its good enough to see certain relevant patterns and draw some basic policy conclusions. An alien armed only with this data could make some pretty good guesses about each countries policies and timing of actions they took, or failed to take, that were designed to limit the spread of the virus during different waves. But I couldnt make that claim with such confidence if I had included the entire dataset, rather than what I've actually done which is leave out various countries (eg in Africa) that in some ways 'confounded' expectations, probably due to factors that arent easily reflected by studying policy alone.











						COVID-19 Data Explorer
					

Research and data to make progress against the world’s largest problems




					ourworldindata.org


----------



## klang (Apr 4, 2022)

Sue said:


> So maybe my company are just being super-strict then?!


maybe. Anecdotally, a lot of people are not happy with the easing of restrictions.


----------



## teuchter (Apr 4, 2022)

elbows said:


> Even though we are not going to be able to properly tell these complex stories neatly using a single set of data, we can still look at cumulative mortality over time and see some rather obvious patterns which very much relate to pandemic policy and policy timing.



What are the obvious patterns that actually tell us much useful about Sweden though?

(By the way, I suspect the reason that Sweden didn't do loads better or worse than say UK or Germany, despite apparently taking a very different approach, is that actually, the bits of its approach that were significant weren't really as different from other countries' as seems to be the general assumption)


----------



## elbows (Apr 4, 2022)

teuchter said:


> What are the obvious patterns that actually tell us much useful about Sweden though?
> 
> (By the way, I suspect the reason that Sweden didn't do loads better or worse than say UK or Germany, despite apparently taking a very different approach, is that actually, the bits of its approach that were significant weren't really as different from other countries' as seems to be the general assumption)


On paper there were a bunch of reasons that Sweden should have had built in advantages compared to plenty of other nations. For example they have a low proportion of intergenerational households, and a higher proportion of people that live alone. Combine those sorts of things with good fortune in terms of how much initial seeding of the virus there was, and the burden of disease should be much smaller than the likes of the UK, Italy etc. Managing to end up comparable to some countries that did extremely badly, that did not have those structural advantages, in the first wave is a sign of failure. A failure to make the most of those advantages in order to significantly reduce death.

There are a bunch of reasons why things go in waves, with waves that have a peak and an endpoint even if the brakes are never applied to a degree sufficient to stop things in their tracks. And it is certainly true that applying the brakes more gently in ways that stop short of full lockdowns still has some impact. Including the natural braking that stems from people responding to mood music and the obvious threat, and changing their behaviour in response to circumstances. So I dont think Sweden had no brakes at all, but they made cold calculations and miscalculations that squandered their advantages, or rather used up that advantage serving a certain sort of policy and economic agenda rather than using it solely to minimise death. Thats a big part of why its considered a scandal there, and why many apologies for this have already been issued later in the pandemic. There is a period of soul-searching there which may not be put in quite the same terms as I am doing now, but is still quite a bit different to how the UK seeks to dress up its own dismal failures.

Those somewhat curtailed waves still dont go as far in terms of trajectory reduction as we saw in countries that applied the brakes firmly at an early stage before exponential growth reached giddy heights at all. There are examples of countries that slammed the brakes on early and left them in place for sufficient time, and thus ended up with a much, much smaller first wave. Some of the countries that managed that feat the first time did not manage to do it with such good timing and strength the second time. And some achieved this feat the first time more through luck than judgement, or due to a mix of advantageous factors that are possible to guess, and factors that are still poorly understood, eg Germany. As far as I know the jury is out on exactly why Germany did so well the first time, but whatever the factors that gave them the chance to do that, they were able to then make use of it to bring in appropriate policies on top before it was too late to avoid joining the list of appauling pandemic nations in the first wave. Germany managed that in the first wave, but not the second time around. And that detail certainly needs to be acknowledged if daring to compare the likes of Sweden to Germany - look at the first wave, Sweden cannot be compared to Germany in that wave, the suspicion is that Sweden should have been rather well placed to avoid the horrific numbers and should have done so much better. Instead their first wave trend resembled a cross between those shit show countries like the UK who had few built in advantages and were late to brake but then eventually did so quite strongly, and what we saw in the second waves in countries with less assumed advantages than Sweden, that then applied brakes more hesitantly and with insufficient strength the second time around. Swedens trajectory also underwent a change part way through their second wave, and this might be linked with some changes to their policies and level of government intervention that took place there during that wave. As for the UK, timing of our Delta wave and the weak braking throughout that wave and the following Omicron wave rather shows up as a gradual increases in death seen over a longer period of time, in contrast to a bunch of other countries whose deaths only started rising notably again later.

I think the countries that managed to apply the brakes with the correct timing on more than one occasion did so because of a combination of factors that made them consider it more feasible for them to do so, but also because of a certain sense of what their priorities should be. That list of successful, decent countries in the pre-vaccine waves isnt huge, but its existence brings shame to those whose priorities consistently pointed in another direction, as does the small list of those who went even further via 'zero covid' policies. Germany might be an example of a country that used their first wave success in order to reach a different sense of 'balance' and 'priorities' in the second wave, not caring to keep the burden so low the second time around.

Here is the same graph I posted earlier but with less countries, in order to make the first and second wave burdens and trajectories easier to see.


----------



## elbows (Apr 4, 2022)

And yeah I shouldnt really try to have it both ways, even though I sometimes do when I'm trying to make some specific points about policy. So I should acknowledge the following for a start:

Sweden didnt have anything approaching the complete set of possible pandemic advantages. They didnt have the advantage of a really good health care capacity, especially when it came to intensive care. They had the care home weakness seen in many countries. They did not have a large capacity to test people right from the start, they had plenty of weaknesses when it came to hospital infection control procedures and PPE. Including a lack of early appreciation for healthcare worker to healthcare worker modes of transmission, a slowness to recognise that close contact between staff away from the patient setting, eg in meetings was an issue, especially given the lack of staff testing and failures to attribute mild staff illness to covid.

And you know I like to ponder the extent to which care home and health care transmission really magnified pandemic waves and their consequences for the vulnerable to a much greater extent than general community transmission alone would cause. This includes me looking in that sort of direction when questions arise as to why a bunch of low income countries on certain continents didnt do so badly, even when taking into account any expected lesser quantity of deaths due to their population age pyramids. It seems plausible that some of the perceived health care advantages that high income countries had on paper were actually disadvantages which ended up acting as case multipliers in specific settings, that then had to be compensated for via very heavy policies applied to the population as a whole. And that high income countries which fared relatively well either had more proper layers of protection in place in those specific settings, or simply dodged explosive problems on those fronts because they suppressed the virus with policy strength and timing that prevented a critical amount of seeding in those and other settings from occurring in the first place. And of course that last point leads me back to my strong opinions on why countries needed to go hard and fast at the start of a wave. Nipping things in the bud can compensate for all manner of weaknesses and problem areas.


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 7, 2022)

Is anyone following the Shanghai lockdown stuff? Some really horrific videos and stories, seems that it's gone beyond pandemic control into authoritarianism


----------



## teuchter (Apr 7, 2022)

It's not only Shanghai - some other large cities too.

Surely they are going to have to give up on their zero Covid thing at some point soon.


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 7, 2022)

I've started a thread on it- no replies yet


----------



## frogwoman (Apr 7, 2022)

Shanghai lockdown
					

Surprised there isn't already a thread on this, this might be where the 'zero covid' policy of China becomes completely unstuck. This is probably my most controversial opinion lol but now that the danger of covid has receded to some degree in 'the west' (I know it's not gone away) I think it is...




					www.urban75.net


----------



## ice-is-forming (Apr 9, 2022)

Most of Australia (  WA excluded as they were late to the party ) has actually returned to business as usual now. There's still a few lingering state mandates around needing to be vaxxed and masked to go into medical settings, and to do some jobs but that's it. Any other mandates are decided by individual businesses themselves now.

We're heading into winter so this might change again.


----------



## Yossarian (Apr 11, 2022)

Philadelphia just reinstated its mask mandate - first major city in the US to do so.









						Philly Reinstates Indoor Mask Mandate
					

With COVID-19 cases slowly rising, Philadelphia is bringing back its indoor mask mandate for public places, schools and day cares. Philadelphia announced Monday that, on April 18, masks must be worn again indoors.




					www.nbcphiladelphia.com


----------



## _Russ_ (Apr 12, 2022)

Yossarian said:


> Philadelphia just reinstated its mask mandate - first major city in the US to do so.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


When even parts of the  Libetarian USA take the need for some restrictions more seriously than us, you really have to wonder just how much of a bunch of selfish uncaring arseholes our own government is.

...and how fucking ignorant and selfish most of the population is to enthusiastically follow that narrative


----------



## Steel Icarus (Apr 12, 2022)

Philly's a very progressive city though tbf, you won't see that reflected elsewhere very much


----------



## teuchter (Apr 12, 2022)

It looks like they have quite a low vaccination rate (75% of over 18s) so it's not exactly comparable with the UK.


----------



## elbows (Apr 12, 2022)

teuchter said:


> It looks like they have quite a low vaccination rate (75% of over 18s) so it's not exactly comparable with the UK.



Vaccines are important but they arent the only factor. Philadelphia decided to have publicly available benchmarks/rules for when different sorts of measures come back in, setting clear trigger points for action that the UK never wanted to have because they dont leave room for political rather than data-driven decisions. Although in terms of overriding political decisions, they could always change those rules and thresholds in future. For example authorities there claim that the vaccination rate is not a factor which influences their thresholds, but behind the scenes it probably is some part of the picture. But since they've set other clear data thresholds, it will be the actual effects of the vaccine on population health during a particular wave that is key, rather than arbitrary uptake percentages.

The UK did benefit from a well timed booster campaign and the population immunity effects of failures in prior waves. But there is still a large component of 'success' in a wave that is actually dependent far more on establishment and population attitudes affecting the perceptions of what counts as success. Take for example the key area of pressure on health services - the current UK approach can be deemed a success in terms of the pressure on health services not reaching a level where authorities had no wiggle room left, no choice but to impose harsh measures. But in terms of actual pressure on the health service that affects capacity and standard of care, its still quite possible to view it as a horror show that not all establishments around the world are happy to replicate. Its still questionable as to quite how far some of those will go to avoid that scenario, ie how far they would actually go in regards tough measures. But when it comes to the milder measures such as mask mandates, its absolutely no surprise that some find it easy to follow the 'act early' lesson of the pandemic, by not abandoning every single element the precautionary approach....





__





						archive.ph
					





					archive.ph
				






> City Health Commissioner Cheryl Bettigole said we don’t yet know whether the BA.2 subvariant will have the same impact on hospitals as the original omicron variant this past winter. But the masks, she said, are a precautionary measure.
> 
> “I suspect that this wave will be smaller than the one we saw in January. But if we wait to find out and to put our masks back on, we’ll have lost our chance to stop the wave,” she said during Monday’s press conference, announcing the new mandate.





> “If we mask up now and find out that hospitalizations don’t increase in the US in response to this variant the way they have in the UK, then great. We can then take off our masks with a sense of relief. But if we fail to act now, knowing that every previous wave of infections has been followed by a wave of hospitalizations, and then a wave of deaths, it will be too late for many of our residents. This is our chance to get ahead of the pandemic.”



Just because the UK messaging and response to the BA.2 Omicron wave was, due to policy decided before it arrived, totally different to previous responses, doesnt mean the current wave is going to be viewed quite so differently absolutely everywhere else. And lets not exaggerate the differences in approach, even between the UK and Philly - their BA.2 Omicron mask response is just a version of what even the UK still felt the need to do when facing BA.1 Omicron.


----------



## elbows (Apr 12, 2022)

By the way there had been some chatter in the USA recently that maybe they've reached a magic level of population immunity. This thinking was sponsored in the usual way, via seeing tentative signs that the timing of a sizeable BA.2 wave in the USA was diverging somewhat from the previous lag seen between waves in UK/Europe and waves in the USA, creating a window of opportunity to indulge in such hopes. Since many factors beyond population immunity go into the timing, size and implications of a wave in a particular location, I was unwilling to utterly rule out such possibilities, but still had to place that chatter into the premature, wishful thinking pile when I heard it a week or two ago. Given how many previous occasions the temptation to hope for really strong herd immunity effects had not come to fruition when it came to number of infections and avoidance of a wave, and that the UK still managed to have a huge BA.2 wave despite vaccine successes, good booster timing and huge number of previous infections, I had little choice but to groan when I heard that chatter. And the UK authorities long since gave up relying on such things, which is why their reopening agenda sought to downplay all emphasis on number of infections, and spent upwards of a year setting that scene.


----------



## zahir (Apr 12, 2022)

BA.4 and BA.5









						What do we know about Omicron BA.4 and BA.5
					

What You Should Know The World Health Organization (WHO) is currently tracking a few new cases of two more sub-variants of the highly virulent SARS-CoV-2 Omicron strain to see whether they are more contagious or hazardous. The World Health Organization (WHO) stated Monday that it has added BA.4...




					medriva.com
				





> Scientists are still understanding the information about the new omicron variant (BA.4, BA.5). BA.5 detected in South Africa currently has a 84% growth advantage against BA.2. BA.4 detected in South Africa currently has a 63% growth advantage over BA.2. Both BA.4 and BA.5 have the* L452R pathogenic mutation*, which is also found in the Delta variant. Since these variants are now already dominant in South Africa, it is unclear what this means for the rest of the world, as we are already experiencing much bigger BA.2 waves than they did – but scientists will be keeping an eye on this especially as cases begin to develop in the UK.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 17, 2022)

Yet to be published UN WHO report suggests globally *15 million COVID-19 deaths* (up till the end of 2021).








						India Is Stalling the W.H.O.’s Efforts to Make Global Covid Death Toll Public
					

The agency has calculated that 15 million people have died as a result of the pandemic, far more than earlier estimates, but has yet to release those numbers.




					www.nytimes.com


----------



## 2hats (Apr 17, 2022)

The US FDA approves a new COVID-19 diagnostic test, the InspectIR COVID-19 Breathalyzer, which identifies via gas chromatography mass spectrometry five volatile organic compound markers associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in exhaled breath (91.2% test sensitivity, 99.3% test specificity).








						Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Authorizes First COVID-19 Diagnostic Test Using Breath Samples
					

FDA issues EUA for first COVID-19 diagnostic test that detects chemical compounds in breath samples associated with a SARS-CoV-2 infection




					www.fda.gov


----------



## _Russ_ (Apr 18, 2022)

2hats said:


> The US FDA approves a new COVID-19 diagnostic test, the InspectIR COVID-19 Breathalyzer, which identifies via gas chromatography mass spectrometry five volatile organic compound markers associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in exhaled breath (91.2% test sensitivity, 99.3% test specificity).
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Could be extremely useful in the UK airline and other travel sectors if they could ramp up production x10
.....Oh I forgot Covid 19 is over in the UK no need to test people cooped up for hours with hundreds of others any more


----------



## platinumsage (Apr 18, 2022)

_Russ_ said:


> Could be extremely useful in the UK airline and other travel sectors if they could ramp up production x10
> .....Oh I forgot Covid 19 is over in the UK no need to test people cooped up for hours with hundreds of others any more



1 machine per flight, 250 passengers, 10 minutes per test. Not very practicable. 

Also, given the number of flights per day, even ramping up production 10x it wouldn't be viable anyway, especially given the competing demands from hospitals etc.


----------



## _Russ_ (Apr 18, 2022)

I dunno it takes that long to get through the other aspects of security before you board, they  could process it whilst you go through that other shit, but as you say other uses should come first, but hey they are allready talking about not testing hospital inpatients (allready only testing 2/3rds anyway if im understanding the Welsh stats correctly)


----------



## teuchter (Apr 18, 2022)

What exactly would be the point of testing air passengers now?


----------



## _Russ_ (Apr 19, 2022)

teuchter said:


> What exactly would be the point of testing air passengers now?


Enabling vulnerable people to travel with some degree of safety, nothing to concern you of course, jack


----------



## platinumsage (Apr 19, 2022)

_Russ_ said:


> I dunno it takes that long to get through the other aspects of security before you board, they  could process it whilst you go through that other shit, but as you say other uses should come first, but hey they are allready talking about not testing hospital inpatients (allready only testing 2/3rds anyway if im understanding the Welsh stats correctly)



The rate of people checking on to a flight and going through security is far higher than one every ten minutes. It would take 41 hours for a machine to process the samples from the 250 people on a flight.


----------



## platinumsage (Apr 19, 2022)

_Russ_ said:


> Enabling vulnerable people to travel with some degree of safety, nothing to concern you of course, jack



Vulnerable people can travel in safety by wearing respirators. I don't see how turning people away at the gate and therefore requiring them to remain in a country until they test negative is more equitable.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Apr 19, 2022)

elbows said:


> Vaccines are important but they arent the only factor.


They're by far and away the most important factor, no? The likes of Denmark and South Korea have just seen omicron sweep through probably half their entire populations, but despite relatively low previous infection rates, good vaccination rates have kept deaths no greater than during a (relatively bad) flu season. Compare and contrast with Hong Kong.  

How many people in vulnerable groups have been left unvaccinated is the best predictor of death numbers across the world over the last year. Across Europe, you can look at death numbers and make a pretty accurate prediction of the vaccination rate.


----------



## elbows (Apr 19, 2022)

littlebabyjesus said:


> They're by far and away the most important factor, no?


Yeah, and I was talking specifically about factors that Philadelphia were influding in their decision making. I wont repeat all that again now. But I will add that I believe they actually had a bit of a public data scandal in terms of misleading vaccination rates data not so long ago.

Vaccinations have also make a notable difference to calculations that involve precautionary principals. But for some administrations the vaccines alone dont utterly eradicate their desire to take some precautionary measures when a new wave is arriving and they arent quite sure of its magnitude or ramifications. The UK for example is in a much better place due to vaccines, but then there are political decisions about what those advantages are used to enable exactly. Decisions were made here about things like mask requirements and costs of free testing and how that stuff is balanced against pressure on the NHS. It doesnt surprise me that not everywhere wants to follow our example in quite the same way, since the ongoing pressure on the NHS is rather bad and has other knock on health consequences. We absolutely need our levels of infection to come down from the giddy heights in order to avoid the slow, grinding pressure on the NHS from continuing for an even more absurd length of time.

But sure, when it comes to overall calculations the vaccines are a hugely significant factor. Not just the uptake rates though, but also details of the types of vaccines used, and the current strain. Please do factor this in when you criticise the likes of Japan and their timing of easing of measures like you did on the Shanghai thread. Because certain data makes a lot more sense out of their calculations and timing.

And Im not making that last point to have a go at you, but rather because I found specific data about Japan which I think is a good example of this. It appears that the timing of UK booster vaccine doses relative to the Omicron wave was a major difference maker here. And so it makes sense to consider that when looking at what other countries have been doing. So here is data on Japans uptake by date, including boosters. Their timing was well behind ours, so we shouldnt be surprised that their timing of relaxing of measures is different too.









						Japan: COVID-19 vaccination rate 2022 | Statista
					

Around 80 percent of Japan's population received second doses of COVID-19 vaccination. The booster shot administration began at the end of 2021.




					www.statista.com
				




Whats probably harder to do when considering how good or bad a position countries are in, is figuring out exactly what sort of vaccine uptake percentages are 'good enough'. Boosters look to have made a notable difference without hitting the sort of extremely high percentages of uptake we were used to seeing with the fist 2 doses. And factors such as what sort of proportion of the population also gained some immunity via previous infection also come into play. And that gets quite complicated, for example it is possible to find posts by 2hats which consider the possibility that we have to be careful when looking at data from South Africa in regards the impact of various Omicron strains, because they had a different wave-variant history than many countries. Other stuff too when considering the effects of vaccines, eg the UK 'lucked into' having that big gap between first and second doses, which some later evidence implies had a benefit to the immunity picture.


----------



## _Russ_ (Apr 21, 2022)

platinumsage said:


> Vulnerable people can travel in safety by wearing respirators. I don't see how turning people away at the gate and therefore requiring them to remain in a country until they test negative is more equitable.


They could travel with  a hell of a lot more safety if during this period of very high case numbers other people also wore masks (remember how that works ?) and some form of testing was  retained
(I do realise the mask bit is so awfully fucking hard to endure for the sake of others if you dont actually give a fuck)


----------



## teuchter (Apr 21, 2022)

No-one was talking about masks - the discussion was about testing. If you want to test people for travel, when case numbers are high, then that means a large number of people having to cancel travel plans altogether. That's a slightly different level of inconvenience compared to asking people to wear a mask. 

Requiring a negative test to travel does indeed protect those who are vulnerable and  need to travel from one protected environment to another. On the other hand, someone else can't travel to care for their ill relative. Or whatever.


----------



## _Russ_ (Apr 21, 2022)

teuchter said:


> No-one was talking about masks -



Are you only reading the bits you think you have an answer to?


----------



## teuchter (Apr 21, 2022)

_Russ_ said:


> Are you only reading the bits you think you have an answer to?


You've lost me now.


----------



## 2hats (Apr 25, 2022)

Early signs of what could be a new 'wave' in Gauteng, South Africa, quite possibly driven by BA.4 (or a sub-lineage). Fortunately deaths, and to a lesser degree hospitalisations, are now decoupled from infections (likely hybrid immunity plays a significant role here, along with recent prior infection in unvaccinated persons).








A thread.


----------



## elbows (Apr 25, 2022)

A continuation of that decoupling picture is what we'd hope to see this time, but in terms of the data for this new potential wave its too early to see quite how that will actually turn out in detail. That doesnt mean I'm expecting it to be bad, just that I keep an open mind until the data actually arrives.

A vague glimpse at some of the politics there at the moment, raising fears in an understandable way that still doesnt give me clues about what will actually happen. And obviously there is a winter context and a weakened health system context:









						Covid-19 Surge, Puts Spotlight Back On State Of Gauteng Hospitals
					

The state of Gauteng hospitals has again come under spotlight amid the surge in Covid-19 new cases.“ The ........




					www.techfinancials.co.za
				






> “Are Gauteng hospitals ready for a 5th wave of Covid cases?” was the question posed on Monday by Jack Bloom, the Democratic Alliance (DA) Gauteng Shadow MEC for Health.
> 
> “Yesterday there were 1 727 new cases and 10 933 active Covid cases recorded in Gauteng, compared to 460 and 4 333 active cases a week before,” said Bloom.
> 
> ...


----------



## nagapie (Apr 25, 2022)

Very low vaccine take up in South Africa.


----------



## weltweit (May 5, 2022)

Covid: World’s true pandemic death toll nearly 15 million, says WHO​








						Covid: World’s true pandemic death toll nearly 15 million, says WHO
					

These include deaths from Covid and from the indirect effects of the pandemic over two years worldwide.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## 8ball (May 5, 2022)

weltweit said:


> Covid: World’s true pandemic death toll nearly 15 million, says WHO​
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I think it will take a decade and some frank honesty to get to a better estimate.


----------



## elbows (May 6, 2022)

I'm not sure we'll ever get a much better estimate than that sort of thing, just one that evolves as more case accumulate over time.

For example they mention the gaping hole in stats for much of Africa, and I dont think there is a way to improve that substantially in terms of historical data.

Here is another article based on the same data, looking at things from a US angle:









						Does US really have world's highest Covid death toll?
					

A new report suggests other countries had more excess deaths than US during the pandemic.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## Yossarian (May 6, 2022)

According to a large-scale study in the US, omicron isn't milder than other variants, but its effect was milder because of vaccination.









						Omicron as severe as other COVID variants -large U.S. study
					

The Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV2 virus is intrinsically as severe as previous variants, , according to a preprint version of a large U.S.studythat counters assumptions in other studies that it was more transmissible but less severe.




					www.reuters.com


----------



## 2hats (Jun 25, 2022)

(UNSW and others) An assessment of the COVID-19 burden in LMIC would suggest that IFR was around two times higher than in high income countries, largely due to disparity in healthcare access easily offsetting age demographic effect.
​


> Results In most locations in developing countries, seroprevalence among older adults was similar to that of younger age cohorts, underscoring the limited capacity that these nations have to protect older age groups.
> 
> Age-specific IFRs were roughly 2 times higher than in high-income countries. The median value of the population IFR was about 0.5%, similar to that of high-income countries, because disparities in healthcare access were roughly offset by differences in population age structure.
> 
> Conclusion The burden of COVID-19 is far higher in developing countries than in high-income countries, reflecting a combination of elevated transmission to middle-aged and older adults as well as limited access to adequate healthcare. These results underscore the critical need to ensure medical equity to populations in developing countries through provision of vaccine doses and effective medications.


DOI:10.1136/bmjgh-2022-008477.


----------



## platinumsage (Jul 8, 2022)

Swift vaccine passport backtracking in China:









						Beijing city walks back plan to tighten Covid vaccine requirements — after just one day
					

After "misgivings" among locals about a Covid vaccine requirement, state-run Beijing Daily published a report on the rules that removed mention of that mandate.




					www.cnbc.com


----------



## 2hats (Jul 9, 2022)

2hats said:


> It's that time of the year again...



Looks like Yankeecandletide _might_ be arriving early this year.
 ​​Related:


			“This Candle Has No Smell”: Detecting the Effect of COVID Anosmia on Amazon Reviews Using Bayesian Vector Autoregression 							| Proceedings of the International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media


----------



## Agent Sparrow (Jul 10, 2022)

Are there any graphs as to what’s thought to be happening with COVID rates atm? I can’t picture it well just from numerical numbers.


----------



## 2hats (Jul 10, 2022)

From the ONS, Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights, 8 July 2022.
​
e2a: Worldwide thread - situation overview via the JHU COVID-19 dashboard.


----------



## teqniq (Jul 18, 2022)

Interesting and possibly hopeful:









						Nasal spray lowers Covid viral load by 94 per cent in 24 hours: Lancet study
					

A nasal spray administered in high-risk adult COVID-19 patients in India reduced viral load by 94 per cent within 24 hours and 99 per cent in 48 hours, according to the results of Phase-3 trial of the drug published in The Lancet Regional Health Southeast Asia journal.




					www.tribuneindia.com


----------



## Thesaint (Jul 28, 2022)

There's been some early reports Wuhan is back in severe lockdown after only four cases were idenitfied.

I do wonder how long the political system in China will survive this endless ultra hard wack-mole-strategy...

Maybe Beijing will give up and then try to hide the infection numbers before a accepting reality....

Maybe the people realise it's all a show and fight back....


----------



## two sheds (Jul 28, 2022)

You think it's all a show?


----------



## Thesaint (Jul 29, 2022)

two sheds said:


> You think it's all a show?


In the sense the Beijing government have to keep a pretence up they can control a virus forever by doing this with so little thought for the people affected.


----------



## elbows (Jul 29, 2022)

I doubt they will stick with that approach forever, they will probably be looking for a way out eventually. I'm guessing they will belatedly try to hit a certain level of vaccinations in the elderly and will then announce that they can start to shift policy as a result. But I dont have highly detailed and up to date vaccine stats for China and I've got no sense of the likely timing of this shift, or how slowly they will adjust their rhetoric in the next few years. And there is plenty of political risk in the meantime. Their extreme policies saved a large number of people from direct covid death, but it does look like they have fucked up the opportunity to transition to another approach at the most optimal time. Only further massive twists in the covid story elsewhere around the globe could force a big reevaluation of that opinion. Or if long term population health impacts from covid slowly reveal themselves to be a huge thing in the years ahead.


----------



## two sheds (Jul 29, 2022)

Was going to ask whether we know how many Chinese people have been vaccinated once/twice/three times but I broke the habit of a lifetime and did a quick search. 



> As of June 4, 2022, about 87 percent of people in China had been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus COVID-19.











						China: COVID-19 vaccination rate 2022 | Statista
					

As of June 4, 2022, about 87 percent of people in China had been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus COVID-19.




					www.statista.com
				




With that many vaccinated Thesaint will doubtless be surprised half of them aren't dead by now


----------



## elbows (Jul 29, 2022)

Need the version of that data that shows vaccination status by age group to get a useful picture. There has been some data about that in the past, but I'm not sure I've seen it in any regularly updated charts. Maybe they do exist and I just failed to stumble on them, I usually heard about such figures very sporadically as part of news articles. And in the past those numbers tended to reveal a big fuckup in terms of those most vulnerable due to age being woefully undervaccinated.


----------



## two sheds (Jul 29, 2022)

Also depends on the efficacy of the vaccines they're using I suppose.


----------



## mwgdrwg (Jul 29, 2022)

Japan had the most infections in the world last week. A country where everyone wears a mask in 35 degree heat, and STILL has a complete ban on individual foreign tourists.


----------



## Thesaint (Jul 29, 2022)

It looks like Japan is finding out the same the many western countries did but just later on.i imagine with china's infamous spying capabilities they surely know from countries like ours the inevitable cases will eventually happen🤔
As elbows mentions they haven't a plan B ready - maybe the fooled themselves plan A worked. 

But what happens the relationship between an oppressed people and their government once those people realise it's akin to the Wizard of Oz?


----------



## kabbes (Jul 30, 2022)

Wut


----------



## 8ball (Jul 30, 2022)

Exactly


----------



## sheothebudworths (Aug 13, 2022)

Wasn't quite sure where to put this, so apologies if it's not the right place, but I read this today and thought it was interesting and worth sharing -









						Angela Rasmussen on Covid-19: ‘This origins discussion is the worst thing about Twitter’
					

Did Sars-CoV-2 emerge from a Huanan market stall or a lab? For the American virologist, who has been abused online for defending a ‘natural’ origin, the evidence is clear




					www.theguardian.com


----------



## zahir (Aug 13, 2022)

sheothebudworths said:


> Wasn't quite sure where to put this, so apologies if it's not the right place, but I read this today and thought it was interesting and worth sharing -
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Alina Chan's response to the paper in Science:


----------



## platinumsage (Aug 15, 2022)

China still going with its batshit COVID policy, or rather a calculated encouragement of local governments to retain control measures in the run-up to Xi Jinping's 10-year rule extension

Here, a person who had been in contact with a COVID case had supposedly been to this Ikea at some point, so authorities tried to implement a sudden mass-detention of shoppers. This is pretty routine stuff nowadays in China:









						Shanghai Covid: Ikea shoppers flee attempt to lock down store
					

Video shows people running out of the store in Xuhui district as guards tried to shut them in.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Aug 15, 2022)

platinumsage said:


> China still going with its batshit COVID policy



I have discussed the risks of Chinas policy and their need to transition at some point before, so I wont repeat that all again right now.

I will briefly explore the theme of what counts as 'batshit' though, via an example of how this can still all be turned on its head if different framing and priorities are employed.

According to BBC articles such as the following one, 'The country has recorded fewer than 15,000 deaths since the pandemic began, according to Johns Hopkins University.'









						Sanya: Covid lockdown strands tourists on 'China's Hawaii'
					

Over 80,000 tourists in the resort known as "China's Hawaii" face new restrictions and cancelled flights.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Meanwhile, last weeks ONS data for England & Wales records 15,379 deaths caused by Covid in 2022 (and 23,222 deaths in 2022 if we use the broader definition 'deaths involving Covid-19'). Those figures are for deaths registered up to 29th July at the time of publication.

So just using those simplistic numbers we can see how an alternative view of what counts as batshit could easily be constructed by those still seeking to justify Chinas response to this virus.

Obviously the reality is more complicated and other forms of human misery and balance need to be taken into account. Clearly there is a lot of politics involved in all countries approaches, and the politics in China is not subtle and is easy to legitimately condemn. And clearly Chinas approach had some big downsides in terms of vaccine uptake in the most vulnerable age groups, which has caused them to stick out like a sore thumb long after the other handful of countries which were initially in a position to go for a 'zero covid' approach have felt able to transition to a different approach. 

Plus even if we assume that China will eventually reach a point where politically and via vaccine-uptake levels they feel able to start to transition their policy, they will still have to navigate the the inevitable consequences of such a shift. Because if we look at what happened in regards deaths in Australia and New Zealand once they changed approach, we can see that even in a well vaccinated population there will be deaths, and if deaths had previously been effectively suppressed via very strong measures, the deaths since the switch will contrast sharply with the previous picture. Not that I view such surges and ongoing deaths as any sort of indication that the previous policies only delayed the inevitable or somehow werent worth it, far from it, its still permanently changed the magnitude of pandemic deaths in those countries, The following graphs are from the worldometer covid site.




If/when the times comes that China changes their approach, they could of course resort to suppression of data in order to downplay the results of such changes on the death picture, and it will be hard for us to judge whether they indulge in that sort of thing. So I cannot say whether we will eventually see those sorts of patterns in the graphs from China too.


----------



## Yossarian (Aug 15, 2022)

platinumsage said:


> China still going with its batshit COVID policy, or rather a calculated encouragement of local governments to retain control measures in the run-up to Xi Jinping's 10-year rule extension
> 
> Here, a person who had been in contact with a COVID case had supposedly been to this Ikea at some point, so authorities tried to implement a sudden mass-detention of shoppers. This is pretty routine stuff nowadays in China:
> 
> ...



The stuff of nightmares - I'd panic and possibly built a battering ram out of Scandinavian furniture if I thought I was going to be locked down indefinitely in an Ikea.


----------



## Thesaint (Aug 16, 2022)

I guess being stuck in Ikea isn't the worst...afterall there's beds, settees, kitchens and meatballs - although everyone has to go in one direction to get between them 😏

In a more serious note the concept is still batshit crazy, as lockdowns and isolation work ok in the short term to reduce person to person contact but ultimately you end up in the same position at the end as you did when you started - so ultimately fail.

I suspect Beijing is saving face for now, but will have to endure the Oz or NZ experience at some point and must surely know it but the big risk is these heighten tensions with Taiwan as a distraction...


----------



## Monkeygrinder's Organ (Aug 16, 2022)

Yossarian said:


> The stuff of nightmares - I'd panic and possibly built a battering ram out of Scandinavian furniture if I thought I was going to be locked down indefinitely in an Ikea.



Worst episode of the A-Team ever.


----------



## elbows (Aug 16, 2022)

Thesaint said:


> In a more serious note the concept is still batshit crazy, as lockdowns and isolation work ok in the short term to reduce person to person contact but ultimately you end up in the same position at the end as you did when you started - so ultimately fail.


No, because the idea is you do that stuff to buy time to develop and deploy vaccines and treatments, which then make a huge difference, as demonstrated by the impact of the more recent waves in the UK compared to the first few waves. And you encourage people to take things more seriously in between the lockdowns, and for sensible mitigation measures to be adopted, when still at the stage of waiting for vaccines to become available.

In theory there are also other versions of this story where you dont ultimately end up exactly right back where you started, but they will sound batshit because they do not resemble how we'd expect humans and authorities to behave, or the alternative options available given enough time, and even China wont be expected to go down that path for the long term. But just to give a vague idea about some of the theoretical scenarios, if we had a situation where there were never going to be vaccines and decent treatments, and the disease was so bad that there was actually the will to keep having lockdowns for many years, you'd still eventually end up with a different picture after decades had gone by. Because a small proportion of the most vulnerable would still be killed off with each wave, and a proportion of the younger population who could catch it without severe consequences would catch it with each wave, slowly changing the overall population immunity and vulnerability picture. This still wouldnt likely neatly resemble a very slow version of the hideously oversimplified 'herd immunity' approach, but it would gradually change the picture and the consequences. Its too early to say whether the consequences of covid are certain to be very different if we fast forward to a future where everyone on the planet was first exposed to the virus at a very young age, but on paper thats one of the things that can radically alter the consequences of a particular disease even if the virus itself and treatments havent changed.

Obviously there are other complications too, such as how the virus evolves and what the consequences of that evolution turn out to be. But thats also another way that strong measures ahve an impact - we'd expect the virus to evolve more slowly if far less people were allowed to catch it. Whether slowing its evolution is considered a bad thing or a good thing of course depends on the traits it picks up during this evolution, and whether there is any sort of relatively settled destination of its traits.


----------



## Thesaint (Aug 17, 2022)

elbows said:


> No, because the idea is you do that stuff to buy time to develop and deploy vaccines and treatments, which then make a huge difference, as demonstrated by the impact of the more recent waves in the UK compared to the first few waves. And you encourage people to take things more seriously in between the lockdowns, and for sensible mitigation measures to be adopted, when still at the stage of waiting for vaccines to become available.
> 
> In theory there are also other versions of this story where you dont ultimately end up exactly right back where you started, but they will sound batshit because they do not resemble how we'd expect humans and authorities to behave, or the alternative options available given enough time, and even China wont be expected to go down that path for the long term. But just to give a vague idea about some of the theoretical scenarios, if we had a situation where there were never going to be vaccines and decent treatments, and the disease was so bad that there was actually the will to keep having lockdowns for many years, you'd still eventually end up with a different picture after decades had gone by. Because a small proportion of the most vulnerable would still be killed off with each wave, and a proportion of the younger population who could catch it without severe consequences would catch it with each wave, slowly changing the overall population immunity and vulnerability picture. This still wouldnt likely neatly resemble a very slow version of the hideously oversimplified 'herd immunity' approach, but it would gradually change the picture and the consequences. Its too early to say whether the consequences of covid are certain to be very different if we fast forward to a future where everyone on the planet was first exposed to the virus at a very young age, but on paper thats one of the things that can radically alter the consequences of a particular disease even if the virus itself and treatments havent changed.
> 
> Obviously there are other complications too, such as how the virus evolves and what the consequences of that evolution turn out to be. But thats also another way that strong measures ahve an impact - we'd expect the virus to evolve more slowly if far less people were allowed to catch it. Whether slowing its evolution is considered a bad thing or a good thing of course depends on the traits it picks up during this evolution, and whether there is any sort of relatively settled destination of its traits.


Interesting you mention the possibility of lockdowns delaying omicron arriving which doesn't get much coverage or thought.

The problem with using lockdowns in hope something else comes to the rescue is they aren't 'free' - There's huge economic and psychological costs which aren't immediately apparent. 
How those costs will long term impact Beijing is hard to know and how the controlling powers will behave to cover this up is where the worry might be the invasion of Taiwan might be a useful distraction if there's dissent.


----------



## elbows (Aug 17, 2022)

Thesaint said:


> Interesting you mention the possibility of lockdowns delaying omicron arriving which doesn't get much coverage or thought.



Well not just lockdowns, anything that makes a notable difference to case numbers. Because the simplistic version of how viral evolution happens involves a really straightforward numbers game, based on the simple fact that mutation occurs when the virus is inside hosts. The reality is more complex than that because its also about paying special attention to people whose immune status leaves them vulnerable to having the virus inside their bodies for a prolonged period of time. Plus its a global picture so you have to make sure that every large population is protected, and that when the vaccine era arrives that there is decent global availability of the vaccines. And certain treatments come with additional mutation risk, and even stuff like vaccination is a double edged sword because vaccinated populations causes selection pressure on the virus to change to try to bypass the immunity vaccines have provided, although thats also true for natural immunity, providing another reason why letting huge numbers get infected will affect the pace of viral evolution. And if you do manage to keep the number of cases in humans down to low levels, you also have to watch out for evolution within animal hosts.



> The problem with using lockdowns in hope something else comes to the rescue is they aren't 'free' - There's huge economic and psychological costs which aren't immediately apparent.
> How those costs will long term impact Beijing is hard to know and how the controlling powers will behave to cover this up is where the worry might be the invasion of Taiwan might be a useful distraction if there's dissent.



Not doing lockdowns wasnt free either, we had some big lessons about how trying to avoid lockdowns for as long as the authorities can hold their nerve ended up increasing the ultimate economic and psychological costs. Countries that locked down earlier than the UK fared better and usually ended up being able to ease individual lockdowns sooner than we did. And the 'herd immunity' justification for the slacker, do little moments in the UK approach didnt end up bearing significant fruit due to the pace of viral evolution and immune evasion. 

The 'hope that something else comes to the rescue' was justified because we did get vaccines which changed the game. And most countries had to impose restrictions of one kind or another to take the very harshest edge off the pre-vaccine waves, there was no magic dodge that could avoid the social and economic cost. Some countries approaches were far more optimal than others, but even people like me will acknowledge that the 'zero covid' nations like New Zealand and Australia were better positioned to attempt that strategy in the pre-vaccine era because they were not structured to be 'global travel hubs' like the UK is. And Chinas political system and level of control enabled them to go for 'zero' despite their huge size and economic structure, an option not really so viable in 'democracies' once people had been round the lockdown loop a number of times.

Make no mistake, I certainly agree with the common view that unless a genuine global attempt at covid eradication or minimisation was done wholeheartedly from the early days onways, 'zero covid' is not a strategy that seems well balanced and sustainable for the long term. And so I am very much of the opinion that China has certainly botched their ability to transition away from that approach at the most optimal time, once vaccines had been readily available for a good while. Whether this ends up having the most severe of consequences for their regime eventually depends on many factors including if/when they decide to change their approach. 

But it also depends on the perceptions of their population, which are affected by crude propaganda but also whether there are any real and obvious setbacks in future for nations that swung to the opposite extreme at the first opportunity. For example there are nerves within the UK establishment about the coming autumn and winter, sponsored by concerns about how frequently we've had waves this year, the current state of the NHS, and the prospect of significant flu pressure returning to the health system for the first time in years and coinciding with the next winters covid burden. As far as I'm concerned, at this stage of the pandemic the 'all or nothing' nations have taken risks which they may or may not manage to get away with. China has stuck rigidly to 'all' and the UK is a good example of a nation that rushed straight back to 'almost nothing'. Neither seem anywhere close to optimal or highly satisfactory to me, although I sincerely hope we dont get to see that played out in the most dramatic ways in the months ahead.


----------



## Thesaint (Aug 17, 2022)

elbows said:


> Well not just lockdowns, anything that makes a notable difference to case numbers. Because the simplistic version of how viral evolution happens involves a really straightforward numbers game, based on the simple fact that mutation occurs when the virus is inside hosts. The reality is more complex than that because its also about paying special attention to people whose immune status leaves them vulnerable to having the virus inside their bodies for a prolonged period of time. Plus its a global picture so you have to make sure that every large population is protected, and that when the vaccine era arrives that there is decent global availability of the vaccines. And certain treatments come with additional mutation risk, and even stuff like vaccination is a double edged sword because vaccinated populations causes selection pressure on the virus to change to try to bypass the immunity vaccines have provided, although thats also true for natural immunity, providing another reason why letting huge numbers get infected will affect the pace of viral evolution. And if you do manage to keep the number of cases in humans down to low levels, you also have to watch out for evolution within animal hosts.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I wonder if China's earlier 'sucess' with zero covid fooled their leadership their political system was superior to the West's and had beaten nature, and they didn't take note of what was happening all around the world or simply darent act on it safe in the knowledge dissent is suppressed.

To a certain degree here theres a been the same whereby because no wants to do a u turn.

Either way I suspect no matter what you do any country will have to accept a certain number of casualties - it's just of a case of when.


----------



## elbows (Aug 18, 2022)

Thesaint said:


> Either way I suspect no matter what you do any country will have to accept a certain number of casualties - it's just of a case of when.



Certainly once any opportunity to stop the virus from going global was missed, it was inevitable that the its ongoing presence would make a permanent difference to the death picture. Well permanent may not be quite the right word due to uncertainties about how the story will evolve decades down the road, but I'll stick with that term for now.

That still leaves a lot of room for variation between nations though. Not every nation had severe spikes in mortality which show up in a profound way in their excess mortality graphs during the first few waves. And although the notable increase in deaths that I showed in graphs for New Zealand and Australia was inevitable even in the vaccine era once they decided to change approach, its still nothing like the level of death that they would have experienced if they went for the same approach in the pre-vaccine era. And it also needs to be offset against the fact that they had thousands less deaths than usual during their zero covid phase, since their measures also suppressed other things like influenza.

The state that health services have been left in, and the ongoing covid, burnout and backlog burden they face is a significant part of the picture with plenty of variation between nations too. The UK is an example of a country with an ongoing mess that carries the risk of the 'permanently' changed death picture continuing to show up in a statistically significant way. Our mass media doesnt seem terribly interested in this at the moment but it shows up clearly in ONS deaths data compared to 5 year averages, and specialist health media publications like the HSJ continue to run stories about the state of the ambulance service and related matters such as internal memos showing doctors concerns that more patients than before are dying in their A&E departments.


----------



## Thesaint (Aug 18, 2022)

elbows said:


> Certainly once any opportunity to stop the virus from going global was missed, it was inevitable that the its ongoing presence would make a permanent difference to the death picture. Well permanent may not be quite the right word due to uncertainties about how the story will evolve decades down the road, but I'll stick with that term for now.
> 
> That still leaves a lot of room for variation between nations though. Not every nation had severe spikes in mortality which show up in a profound way in their excess mortality graphs during the first few waves. And although the notable increase in deaths that I showed in graphs for New Zealand and Australia was inevitable even in the vaccine era once they decided to change approach, its still nothing like the level of death that they would have experienced if they went for the same approach in the pre-vaccine era. And it also needs to be offset against the fact that they had thousands less deaths than usual during their zero covid phase, since their measures also suppressed other things like influenza.
> 
> The state that health services have been left in, and the ongoing covid, burnout and backlog burden they face is a significant part of the picture with plenty of variation between nations too. The UK is an example of a country with an ongoing mess that carries the risk of the 'permanently' changed death picture continuing to show up in a statistically significant way. Our mass media doesnt seem terribly interested in this at the moment but it shows up clearly in ONS deaths data compared to 5 year averages, and specialist health media publications like the HSJ continue to run stories about the state of the ambulance service and related matters such as internal memos showing doctors concerns that more patients than before are dying in their A&E departments.


Oz and NZ are curious experiments which we should assume china could learn from. Both Oz an NZ escaped the worst of earlier variants, and it's vax vs omicron only for them.  Now even if china could get high vax uptake if they panic everytime there's the odd case they are in for a bad time as it's not going to help stop that - assuming sinovac has the same limits as Pfizer etc.

It looks like it's going to be a long slog here clearing the nhs backlog but other news stories have been more pressing. One thing missed by the news is the recent wave of covid the UK experienced and I think you mentioned the (medical) establishment is worried about winter but the last wave went unhindered by any measures and passed by with out bad outcomes so gives reason to be optimistic given the doom and gloom.


----------



## Yossarian (Aug 18, 2022)

Hard to see how China's going to find a way out of its zero COVID policy - a nationwide omicron wave would kill an estimated 1.5 million people, and even for a dictatorship that crushes all dissent, there's never a politically convenient time for that to happen.


----------



## elbows (Aug 18, 2022)

Thesaint said:


> It looks like it's going to be a long slog here clearing the nhs backlog but other news stories have been more pressing. One thing missed by the news is the recent wave of covid the UK experienced and I think you mentioned the (medical) establishment is worried about winter but the last wave went unhindered by any measures and passed by with out bad outcomes so gives reason to be optimistic given the doom and gloom.



Part of the problem is the high bar that was set for what counts as newsworthy, the picture shouldnt be a binary one where only a certain level of doom and gloom unfolding rapidly before our very eyes counts as something worth responding to, something for the public to discuss and ponder how we could do better.

The bar in this country was set at a very high number of daily deaths, or the spectre of the health service being completely overwhelmed. I was very much part of that picture with the way I discussed the potential for systems being overwhelmed in the first few waves, and then again when I wasnt sure if vaccines could carry all the pandemic weight at the height of the next few waves that arrived in the vaccine era. But I've also been very clear about other sorts of pressure, and have referenced on numerous occasions the slow, grinding pressure that is affecting our NHS. Even the media sporadically draw attention to such concerns, and that pressure has been on display in all of our Omicron waves. My own audience here has shrunk down to the people who are still concerned and paying close attention, and the handful of people that can still sometimes be bothered to post in this subforum even though they mostly believe the real danger has past.

It is not fair to say that the last wave passed without any bad outcomes. Such claims can only be made when looking at bad outcomes relative to the first few waves - it is completely understandable that people will look at it in that way, and we can be happy that recent waves have not stood out on the excess death charts in the way that the first few waves did. But that doesnt mean there were no bad outcomes, only that the bad outcomes are more subtle, a different order of magnitude, less intense, more drawn out. They dont have features that demand a massive, life-changing and shocking mass public response of the variety we experienced with lockdowns etc. And so the picture contrasts with what went before in a way that makes it inevitable that far less people are paying attention. And the bad outcomes still have an impact on overall mortality, its running well above the old 5 year average levels that reflected a pre-pandemic world. But it doesnt have the great big 'double the normal number of deaths' spikes in it that the first waves had, and so it does not attract the same sort of attention.


----------



## elbows (Aug 18, 2022)

I can try to illustrate part of my point using the most basic of death statistics. Since Im going to use deaths from all causes this isnt a picture of the pandemic deaths in isolation, it will reflect other stuff such as weather-related deaths, deaths due to hosiptal and ambulance issues, etc etc. But some of those things are also a consequence of what Im describing in terms of slow grinding NHS pressure.

This shows ONS data for deaths from all causes registered per week for England and Wales. We can see a big chunk of the 2nd wave death spike in the first bunch of weekly figures for 2021. But we can also see how once we get beyond that stage of those years, beyond early March, the 2022 weekly deaths are sustained at higher levels than weekly 2021 deaths, meaning that the 2022 total so far compared to the 2021 total at the equivalent stage of the year is gradually creeping up. And if that carries on for many more weeks the 2022 total will end up exceeding the 2021 total despite 2022 not having featured the same height of horrible covid death spike in the first months of the year as 2021 did. I am not claiming that the 2022 total is certain to surpass the 2021 total, but just the fact it might, and that it has been gaining ground, is worth noting. By the week ending 4th March, the 2022 running total was 35,628 deaths lower than the 2021 running total, but by week ending 5th August the gap had reduced to 12,008.

Technical note: the 5 year average figures used in this table are no longer a complete reflection of pre-pandemic death figures. Since one of the 5 years worth of data they are based on now is 2021. So its a mix of pre-pandemic years 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and pandemic year 2021.

Data comes from ONS weekly deaths spreadsheet from Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales, provisional       - Office for National Statistics


----------



## Thesaint (Aug 18, 2022)

elbows said:


> Part of the problem is the high bar that was set for what counts as newsworthy, the picture shouldnt be a binary one where only a certain level of doom and gloom unfolding rapidly before our very eyes counts as something worth responding to, something for the public to discuss and ponder how we could do better.
> 
> The bar in this country was set at a very high number of daily deaths, or the spectre of the health service being completely overwhelmed. I was very much part of that picture with the way I discussed the potential for systems being overwhelmed in the first few waves, and then again when I wasnt sure if vaccines could carry all the pandemic weight at the height of the next few waves that arrived in the vaccine era. But I've also been very clear about other sorts of pressure, and have referenced on numerous occasions the slow, grinding pressure that is affecting our NHS. Even the media sporadically draw attention to such concerns, and that pressure has been on display in all of our Omicron waves. My own audience here has shrunk down to the people who are still concerned and paying close attention, and the handful of people that can still sometimes be bothered to post in this subforum even though they mostly believe the real danger has past.
> 
> It is not fair to say that the last wave passed without any bad outcomes. Such claims can only be made when looking at bad outcomes relative to the first few waves - it is completely understandable that people will look at it in that way, and we can be happy that recent waves have not stood out on the excess death charts in the way that the first few waves did. But that doesnt mean there were no bad outcomes, only that the bad outcomes are more subtle, a different order of magnitude, less intense, more drawn out. They dont have features that demand a massive, life-changing and shocking mass public response of the variety we experienced with lockdowns etc. And so the picture contrasts with what went before in a way that makes it inevitable that far less people are paying attention. And the bad outcomes still have an impact on overall mortality, its running well above the old 5 year average levels that reflected a pre-pandemic world. But it doesnt have the great big 'double the normal number of deaths' spikes in it that the first waves had, and so it does not attract the same sort of attention.


I know the audience for all things covid has shrunk but all though I have had a macabre fascination with it and I recognise now the direct health emergency is very likey all over and we are left with the political outfall now and the side effects of lockdowns to contend with. 
In any case even if it flairs up again we have used up our two biggest weapons of lockdowns and vaccines so have nothing left to counter it anyway.  Theres no cavalry coming over the hill.

Cost of living problems and the economy is now going to be dominant, and they themselves will have an even bigger affect on healthcare provision than covid I suspect and we're in a tight spot to out it midly and can't get out.


----------



## elbows (Aug 18, 2022)

The 'no cavalry' concept is relatively meaningless, authorities will always eventually feel compelled to act in some obvious if the health service really reach a certain stage of collapse. Theres a bunch of different ways it could go, a bunch of different ways it could be framed, and I dont want to speculate excessively about that unless it became clearer that its actually happening and how the politics of it would be squared with the desperate need to act. And even if things down reach a stage where something anywhere close to dramatic as a lockdown is required again, there are a whole bunch of other things the authorities may ask the public to do, plenty of which are not dissimilar to stuff even the Johnson regime ended up asking people to do last winter. I'm not a Tony Blair fan but I notice he was going on about bringing mask wearing back to public transport this winter, and this is an example of a public health measure that can influence the level of pressure faced, if only people didnt tyr to turn everything into politically weaponised ideological scraps and binary fuckwittery. If we have genuinely moved beyond the period of most obvious, acute, intense risk then getting away from the 'all or nothing' approach is even more important. We can do reasonable things at the right time in order to ease the burden without severe negative impact on peoples lives and the economy, if only people avoid poisoning the well by making public health measures part of some crap culture war political narrative, or being defeatist, or refusing to do anything unless total imminent doom beckons.

And when I talk about that sort of thing these days, I certainly dont mean that it has to happen in a direct, tidy covid manner. But then I've always been a flu bore, long before this pandemic, so I remain interested in the rhetoric and the practicalities no matter how much things swing in one direction or another, no matter whether it boils down to simplistic, acute single issue causes or a complex mess of overlapping issues with grinding pressure over long periods of time. In some ways the danger is greater when it unfolds in slow motion, without sudden dramatic shock, long after a period when many people think its all over prematurely.

China is pushing its luck in one direction, we are pushing ours in another. Two different extremes. And there is very little certainty about the extent to which either will carry on getting away with it all the way until we eventually end up in different circumsgtances. At this rate it will be a long time before we've genuinely moved completely beyond that situation of uncertainty and theoretical risk.

In terms of 'the consequences of lockdown', we certainly wont get a tidy analysis of that in isolation. On the economics front much of it will be impossible to separate from the other causes of inflation, and a giant bunch of brexit-related issues. Lockdowns, people having time to reappraise their priorities, and how well they were treated by employers during the pandemic will probably have a lasting effect on the employment market, but again that will get merged in with brexit etc changes to the jobs market, unfilled vacancies etc. In terms of healthcare, NHS backlogs would have happened with or without lockdown, so it isnt fair to claim that such a backlog could somehow have been avoided if we'd somehow dodged lockdowns. Perhaps we might eventually be able to more directly identify unpleasant consequences for younger people as a result of what they had to face as a result of lockdowns and other forms of disruption. But even there some of it may blend with the wider backdrop of opportunities, facilities and support having been eroded by cuts during the long period of austerity that preceded the pandemic.


----------



## Thesaint (Aug 19, 2022)

elbows said:


> The 'no cavalry' concept is relatively meaningless, authorities will always eventually feel compelled to act in some obvious if the health service really reach a certain stage of collapse. Theres a bunch of different ways it could go, a bunch of different ways it could be framed, and I dont want to speculate excessively about that unless it became clearer that its actually happening and how the politics of it would be squared with the desperate need to act. And even if things down reach a stage where something anywhere close to dramatic as a lockdown is required again, there are a whole bunch of other things the authorities may ask the public to do, plenty of which are not dissimilar to stuff even the Johnson regime ended up asking people to do last winter. I'm not a Tony Blair fan but I notice he was going on about bringing mask wearing back to public transport this winter, and this is an example of a public health measure that can influence the level of pressure faced, if only people didnt tyr to turn everything into politically weaponised ideological scraps and binary fuckwittery. If we have genuinely moved beyond the period of most obvious, acute, intense risk then getting away from the 'all or nothing' approach is even more important. We can do reasonable things at the right time in order to ease the burden without severe negative impact on peoples lives and the economy, if only people avoid poisoning the well by making public health measures part of some crap culture war political narrative, or being defeatist, or refusing to do anything unless total imminent doom beckons.
> 
> And when I talk about that sort of thing these days, I certainly dont mean that it has to happen in a direct, tidy covid manner. But then I've always been a flu bore, long before this pandemic, so I remain interested in the rhetoric and the practicalities no matter how much things swing in one direction or another, no matter whether it boils down to simplistic, acute single issue causes or a complex mess of overlapping issues with grinding pressure over long periods of time. In some ways the danger is greater when it unfolds in slow motion, without sudden dramatic shock, long after a period when many people think its all over prematurely.
> 
> ...


I'm fairly sure the pro mask 'ultras' like Blair and prof Susan Michie will be pushing for a repeat of previous winters, but several things stand in their way:
-The government has no legal powers in implement them as the corona act expired.
-The media are slowly turning against the idea and entertaining the concept the cure(s) is worse than the disease, and the public are openly questioning things now.
-Van Tam and Vallance have distanced themselves from their previous roles.
-Both sunak and truss have distanced themselves from previous policies.
-inflation, recession and heating costs will dominate the news as more pressing for most people.
To combat other pressing concerns these 'ultras' will need some drastic data to support them in order to scare the public, and even ICL won't be able to model anything scary enough!

The public (and some media) are questioning things slowly (eg exam results being down) and may overeact the other way if they feel they've been conned by the authorities, and this maybe the single biggest obstacle in the end...no one will take any notice.  

The political weaponisation is partly unavoidable as tricky policy decisions are ultimately political, but it's easy to blame the 'covid deniers' and 'antivax' brigades but the authorities have been as bad or worse.


----------



## elbows (Aug 19, 2022)

The idea that people who suggest masks in winter can be called 'ultras' is in itself political and a poisoning of the well.

It remains relatively trivial to turn the state of the NHS into a top story, and thats what will happen if the situation demands it. If the political and media will and urgent necessity isnt deemed to be there then sure, we have a situation like the current one where it doesnt feature as a top story, and can be routinely downplayed. But that can be changed very quickly indeed, mood music can be changed in less than a week, even in the vaccine era, and even when the public have other pressing concerns that are affecting their lives.

Plus stuff like masks in certain circumstances in winter is not comparable to bringing back really heavy stuff like lockdowns and school closures. We cant get 100% compliance in this country, but thats not what they aim for anyway. Getting people to modify their behaviour a bit in winter is in the same realm as getting people to go for their booster and flu jabs, its well doable. It doesnt require scary modelling of the sort that was necessary to get the authorities here to think the unthinkable in terms of lockdowns etc.

Also in terms of the most common public attitudes in the UK towards the pandemic, I know absolutely loads of people who were very happy to move on once the vaccine era was fully established, who did not wait too long to go back to their previous patterns of behaviour. But plenty of those people were slightly hedging their bets mentally, in that they did not completely accept the idea that 'its all over' in its most pure and extreme sense. They are not going to leap straight back to the sense of risk and doom that characterised the early period of the pandemic, but they retain in reserve the possibility that they may end up expressing 'here we go again' feelings at some future point if certain situations deteriorate beyond a certain extent. I believe I can rely on those people to move with the times in any of the plausible directions that could arise, especially in winter, especially if a common narrative unfolds where a combination of flu and covid/latest covid variant and the state of the NHS pushes things to a certain level of health system overload. I dont think Im pushing my luck by expressing confidence that a big chunk of them will be as ready to accept and engage with reasonable public health measures under certain circumstances as they were in the first pandemic period. Especially since people do pay some attention to the responses of other countries, and if the northern hemisphere winter ends up demanding a response in many other countries too, people will notice and have their expectations partially guided by it. Also, the 'spectre of lockdown' has another use during this stage, it can be used to appeal to people to do the other, less extreme stuff in order to keep the prospect of lockdown far away from the table. Its not clear whether we'll need a repeat of the 'do this to save Christmas from lockdown' stuff routinely, but if the authorities look at the numbers (either covid or NHS or vaccine uptake numbers) and start to fret, thats the sort of thing that could be used again during any winters that look especially challenging. And reasonable people, of whom there are very many, will understand.

I would be far less confident about what proportion of them would readily accept far more extreme measures if the situation was deemed to be especially bad, I'd have to wait and see what sort of situation and risk we were actually dealing with before making claims about that. A really scary vaccine-busting variant would probably carry a lot of people a long way, including our political classes, but I am not predicting we will face that challenge so there isnt much point dwelling on it at length now. I only mention it because such theoretical possibilities still have tonnes of potential for rapid and dramatic change, they are a reason why assumptions like yours can always be short-circuited - theoretical possibilities that involve 'never say never' and 'think the unthinkable' stuff like we saw in regards attitudes to the possibility of lockdowns in March 2020 never truly goes away, no matter how much attitudes shift and assumptions set in. Such dramatic, assumption-busting stuff is rare, but it would be as foolish to claim it could never ever happen again as it would to claim it will surely happen every time we get a new wave in the vaccine era of this pandemic.

If I was going around telling people that what we really need in the UK in 2022 is a zero covid policy like Chinas then sure, that would be a very extreme position which had absolutely no prospect of winning over a significant proportion of the public or the establishment, and for which terms like 'ultra' might actually be reasonable. But thats obviously not what Im taking about at all, and all the talk of 'ultras' just plays into the extreme binary bollocks that is not a true reflection of the situation, attitudes, winter challenges or the sort of appeals the authorities might feel the need to make to the population.

Anyway I get the idea we will just go round in circles with this conversation so I'm happy to give it a rest for now, lets wait until some of the variables that will dictate the magnitude of our winter challenge start to firm up, so we can start to talk about whats likely to happen in practice rather than the full spectrum of theoretic situations and responses. I certainly dont expect everyone to agree with everything I am saying, but those who reject all of it and claim none of it could ever be relevant again, are painting a mirror image of Chinas opposite extreme, one that is just as easy to label as batshit, risky and extreme as Chinas current approach.


----------



## teuchter (Aug 19, 2022)

Thesaint said:


> In any case even if it flairs up again we have used up our two biggest weapons of lockdowns and vaccines so have nothing left to counter it anyway.


A properly resourced healthcare service is the biggest weapon that has, as yet, gone unused.

Everyone I know that works in the NHS tells me that it's currently in the worst state they've ever seen it in.

It might be that even a relatively small increase in pressure as a direct result of another Covid flare-up could push things to a state that enough people perceive it as a crisis. Perhaps at the point when they find no ambulance is available for their family member having a heart attack.


----------



## elbows (Aug 19, 2022)

teuchter said:


> A properly resourced healthcare service is the biggest weapon that has, as yet, gone unused.
> 
> Everyone I know that works in the NHS tells me that it's currently in the worst state they've ever seen it in.
> 
> It might be that even a relatively small increase in pressure as a direct result of another Covid flare-up could push things to a state that enough people perceive it as a crisis. Perhaps at the point when they find no ambulance is available for their family member having a heart attack.



Exactly. And such a situation could just as easily then be labelled batshit and unacceptable as the stuff China is doing to the other extreme. 

Its hard to predict if and when that stuff will burst fully into the realm of top headlines and the sort of crisis that focusses minds and forces action. Because I'm already finding it surreal that we've had about a whole year of a shocking state of ambulance & A&E services without it gaining that level of attention. But if forced to guess, winter seems like a reasonable time to think that those horrors might rise to the top of the agenda, especially if the southern hemispheres winter flu season was any sort of guide as to what will happen in the northern hemispheres next winter.


----------



## weltweit (Aug 26, 2022)

Moderna suing Pfizer over Covid vaccine technology​








						Moderna suing Pfizer over Covid vaccine technology
					

Moderna said it is suing Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech for patent infringement.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




Could be a serious lawsuit this one.



> "We are filing these lawsuits to protect the innovative mRNA technology platform that we pioneered, invested billions of dollars in creating, and patented during the decade preceding the Covid-19 pandemic," Moderna chief executive Stephane Bancel said.


----------



## Thesaint (Aug 27, 2022)

weltweit said:


> Moderna suing Pfizer over Covid vaccine technology​
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I notice Moderna's share price has fallen hugely since it's peak in mid 2021 while Pfizer's has been more steady. Im guessing Modena are more reliant on one product which has falling demand so need cash in on some income?   I wonder too if this kind of claim is quite common but only becomes news here because of recent history?


----------



## elbows (Aug 27, 2022)

As far as I know it is indeed common for drug companies to indulge in lots of patent-based legal action. The nature of the pandemic meant that companies like Moderna initially made positive noises about letting other companies develop covid vaccines using tech like mRNA without legal woes. But that was a temporary measure, designed to stop them looking like the bad guys during a global health emergency, and also to take some of the energy out of campaigns that called for covid vaccine related intellectual property laws and rules to be formally suspended, and to mitigate against other pressures and threats to their business model related to the call for fair sharing of vaccines globally. And they didnt promise that their 'enlightened attitude' would last forever.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Sep 16, 2022)

cases up 42% in 2 weeks in France since the end of the holidays, mostly in the under 20s (+111% for the 0 to 9 age range), mostly seem to be BA.5.


----------



## elbows (Sep 19, 2022)

I expect people are very aware these days that declaring the pandemic to be over is a sort of arbitrary thing that isnt based on a solid definition and may involve mixed messages and uneasy contradictions. And certainly doesnt involve the end of the virus or the end of deaths.

So we have this stuff about Biden saying the pandemic is over in the US, even whilst saying they are still doing a lot of work to control the virus, and they still have thousands of deaths a week.









						Covid-19 pandemic is over in the US - Joe Biden
					

The president says there is still "a lot of work" being done to control the virus in the US.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				






> In an interview with 60 Minutes on CBS, Mr Biden said that the US is still doing "a lot of work" to control the virus.
> 
> The interview - aired over the weekend - was partly filmed on the floor of the Detroit Auto Show, where the president gestured towards the crowds.
> 
> "If you notice, no one's wearing masks," he said. "Everybody seems to be in pretty good shape...I think it's changing."





> In August, US officials extended the ongoing Covid-19 public health emergency, which has been in place since January 2020, through 13 October.
> 
> To date, more than one million Americans have died from the pandemic.
> 
> ...



Note that 'pandemic recovery' is not defined but is probably about behaviour and economic activity as much as anything.



> Public health officials have expressed cautious optimism in recent weeks that the world is edging towards a pandemic recovery but continue to urge people to remain careful.



Some degree of bet hedging still exists too:



> The US recently authorised new vaccines that match the version of the Omicron variant currently dominant in the country, with federal health officials asking Americans to keep their jabs up-to-date.
> 
> On 6 September, White House Covid-19 response coordinator Ashish Jha said it marked an "important shift" in the fight against the virus but underscored the need to "prepare for unforeseen twists and turns".



WHO rhetoric these days now includes the concept of the end of the pandemic, though I havent yet explored how they intend to define that.



> Last week, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that the world has "never been in a better position to end the pandemic".
> 
> "We are not there yet," he said. "But the end is in sight."



Another statistic from that piece:



> Covid-19 also continues to have a significant impact on the US economy, with the National Bureau of Economic Research reporting last week that Covid-related disease has slashed the US workforce by approximately 500,000 people.


The UK hasnt dwelt so much on that sort of thing so far, nor this sort of stuff:



> Mr Biden said he believes that the pandemic has had a "profound" impact on the psyche of Americans.
> 
> "That has changed everything...people's attitudes about themselves, their families, about the state of the nation, about the state of their communities," he said.
> 
> "It's been a very difficult time. Very difficult."


----------



## teqniq (Oct 5, 2022)

This is interesting. Whilst it is primarily aimed at a US audience it could easily be applied to many other countries:









						Pandemic Nihilism, Social Murder, and the Banality of Evil | Bill of Health
					

The nihilism that the Biden administration displays is both convenient and necessary for the personnel who help intensify the pandemic's avoidable harms.




					blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu


----------



## spring-peeper (Oct 12, 2022)

Oh, get real!!!!









						‘Most discriminated against group’: Alberta premier pledges to protect unvaccinated  | Globalnews.ca
					

Earlier in the day, Smith was sworn into the job by Lt.-Gov. Salma Lakhani at a ceremony at Government House.




					globalnews.ca
				






> Danielle Smith, sworn in Tuesday as Alberta’s new premier, said she will shake up the top tier of the health system within three months and amend provincial human rights law to protect those who choose not to get vaccinated.
> 
> “(The unvaccinated) have been the most discriminated-against group that I’ve ever witnessed in my lifetime,” Smith told reporters at the legislature.
> 
> ...


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (Oct 12, 2022)

spring-peeper said:


> Oh, get real!!!!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


let me guess: rather on the right side of the political spectrum?


----------



## spring-peeper (Oct 12, 2022)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> let me guess: rather on the right side of the political spectrum?




yip - far, far right,

Wanna-separate-from-Canada right.


----------



## 8ball (Oct 12, 2022)

spring-peeper said:


> yip - far, far right,
> 
> Wanna-separate-from-Canada right.



Worse than the bloody Mancs, that lot.


----------



## elbows (Nov 2, 2022)

This article by an emergency doctor in Australia is right up my alley:









						The notion that COVID-19 has been vanquished is not supported by the facts
					

The facts of “living with COVID” are far from the soothing fairytale of a complete return to pre-pandemic life. Average lifespans are dropping because of the virus, global mortality data reveals.




					www.smh.com.au
				




I'd like to quote the whole thing but obviously cant really do that. So its better to read the whole thing, even though I've captured quite a chunk of it below.



> We are storytellers. It’s what distinguishes us from all other species. It’s how we make sense of the world, how we transmit knowledge down the generations and how we soothe ourselves.
> 
> Right now, we are telling ourselves a soothing story about COVID-19, one that follows the pattern of many of the fairytales we have liked to tell since our days around the campfire. It has a typical beginning (a dark threat stalks us), middle (a valiant and desperate fight against overwhelming odds) and end (the foe vanquished, a return to normal).
> 
> The pleasing notion that COVID has now been vanquished, however, that it has been turned into “just another seasonal upper-respiratory virus” by vaccination, “hybrid” immunity from repeated infection and natural attenuation of the virus itself, is not supported by the facts.





> Actuarial analysis from around the world, including in Australia, shows an ongoing 10 to 15 per cent excess death rate, as compared with before the pandemic. These deaths are mostly in the older age group, of which about half are directly due to COVID-19. An analysis from Singapore shows the rest “can be explained by patients who passed away from other illnesses within 90 days after being infected with COVID-19”.
> 
> Data from other countries supports excess mortality in the year after COVID infection and we know COVID causes increased cardiovascular and other mortality. Excess deaths in younger age groups are lower, but still very significant, given lower mortality rates in that group anyway. Average lifespans are dropping by between one and more than two years in various countries, according to global mortality data.





> But deaths are not the only metric. High rates of long COVID, consisting of a smorgasbord of chronic conditions, are already being felt in terms of labour shortages and seem set to be accumulating both human and economic effects over time.





> With no consent, no mandate, no public discussion, the “dry tinder” (the elderly, those with chronic disease, those most at risk of “reaping”, as Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly has termed them) is being burnt off. Deaths and infirmity in these individuals can easily be explained away and so easily discounted.
> 
> The only way to identify that this is happening is through statistical analysis of death and illness rates. These analyses accumulate daily and are remarkably consistent around the globe, but statistical reports are not eye-catching and are easily ignored when it is expedient to do so.





> In the same way, horror stories from a healthcare system burdened by abnormally high rates of illness can conveniently be explained away by citing “decades of underfunding”, creating “a dam that has finally burst”.
> 
> Claims that levels of increased sickness are due to “immune debt” (a phrase only invented in 2021), arising from lack of exposure to common viruses during lockdowns, are simply not credible. Nor are claims that lockdowns themselves have created a backlog of under-treated conditions: these excess deaths and illnesses occur equally in places that never had lockdowns.
> 
> The facts of “living with COVID” are far from the soothing fairytale of a complete return to pre-pandemic life.


----------



## elbows (Nov 3, 2022)

By the way I've been contrasting some of his points from that article with how everything is currently being framed in the UK when it comes to NHS pressures and excess death        #47,235      and        #47,243      . Its fair to say that its doing my head in that we struggle to have even the most basic conversations or articles about these ugly realities in the UK. And then I think back to my earlier complaints about some of the limitations to our thinking when we see Chinas zero covid as 'madness' and I feel rather sad about it all. But then I have to point ourt that Im not calling for us to follow Chinas policy, am not calling for lockdowns etc at this stage of our struggle against this virus. All I'm saying is what I said a little earlier on this thread, that both our approach and current narrative/framing and Chinas are at the extremes, relying on a crude and inappropriate version of reality and either too much or too little action. Theres a very broad and sensible middle ground where all sorts of more appropriate and useful responses can be found, stuff that can face up to reality and reduce some of the pressures. But this territory has been made invisible and unlike the early phase of the pandemic (especially March 2020) there seems to be little impetus from the population to bust past the flawed orthodox establishment approach in the UK.


----------



## Thesaint (Nov 4, 2022)

elbows said:


> By the way I've been contrasting some of his points from that article with how everything is currently being framed in the UK when it comes to NHS pressures and excess death        #47,235      and        #47,243      . Its fair to say that its doing my head in that we struggle to have even the most basic conversations or articles about these ugly realities in the UK. And then I think back to my earlier complaints about some of the limitations to our thinking when we see Chinas zero covid as 'madness' and I feel rather sad about it all. But then I have to point ourt that Im not calling for us to follow Chinas policy, am not calling for lockdowns etc at this stage of our struggle against this virus. All I'm saying is what I said a little earlier on this thread, that both our approach and current narrative/framing and Chinas are at the extremes, relying on a crude and inappropriate version of reality and either too much or too little action. Theres a very broad and sensible middle ground where all sorts of more appropriate and useful responses can be found, stuff that can face up to reality and reduce some of the pressures. But this territory has been made invisible and unlike the early phase of the pandemic (especially March 2020) there seems to be little impetus from the population to bust past the flawed orthodox establishment approach in the UK.


When it comes to conversations and brutal realities it's struck me different countries tried differing approaches- China's zero covid, Sweden's relaxed policies, Australia's lock it out policy, and our wait then overreact policy but broadly speaking everyone ends up in the same position.  Stopping a virus is like trying to stop a volcano or earthquake in the end and covid is now everywhere.  With all our technology we only really managed to soften the fatality risk in 2021 but humankind ultimately was helpless against it and how much collateral damage measures added to the problem is a long way from being assessed or even contemplated.


----------



## Thesaint (Nov 4, 2022)

elbows said:


> This article by an emergency doctor in Australia is right up my alley:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


The Australian angle is an interesting one. Oz dodged covid in the early pandemic so presumably their healthcare had minimal interruption?  That would tally with the idea it's not that disruption is to blame if they didn't really have it and still have a similar excess death as many European countries.

Counting deaths is easy, but maybe if we knew if people more were falling seriously ill before needing medical care in the first place that would be an explanation of excess deaths?


----------



## elbows (Nov 4, 2022)

The idea we were helpless is dangerous in some respects because it implies there was no point bothering to do anything. There were limitations to the extent to which different countries could do things on certain fronts, eg the details of global interconnectivity, travel, the economy and various other factors meant it was easier for Australia to implement their strict controls than it was for a country like the UK to. But even the UK ended up feeling the need to take strong action that made a difference. 

And there are still choices that countries have made and continue to make that determine what their plight is right now and in the years to come. China is not in an enviable position in terms of the lockdown disruption burden people still face, but depending on what the long term health impacts end up being, their approach could still end up being judged to be less 'insane' than people currently think it is. Or not, since future decisions there could yet squander any advantage they may have gained via not changing approach yet. I cant predict how that will end up, I can only highlight certain possibilities and invite people to dwell on stuff from different angles.

I'd acknowledge that we were helpless to prevent there being any serious impact from this virus at all, but since the amount of death in the initial, pre-vaccine waves was very sharp compared to the picture we see after those first few waves, I cannot accept the idea that it was wrong to respond strongly in the first 18 months. Countries like Australia had 15,000+ less deaths during that initial phase than they normally would have, and that really does count for something even if they have ultimately ended up in the same situation as other countries in later years. 

I have started to do some very basic analysis of England & Wales deaths by age group from 2010 to now. Doing this by cause of death would be more illuminating, except cause of death data isnt completely accurate, and some interesting patterns still show up simply by looking at deaths by age over time. I'm not ready to share my results quite yet but I will get round to it at some point. If I can find comparable data for Australia then it will be useful to compare and contrast, although now wouldnt be the right time to do that since they've had one big post-restrictions flu wave and it will take some months before we've had a similar phase here.


----------



## teuchter (Nov 4, 2022)

Thesaint said:


> When it comes to conversations and brutal realities it's struck me different countries tried differing approaches- China's zero covid, Sweden's relaxed policies, Australia's lock it out policy, and our wait then overreact policy but broadly speaking everyone ends up in the same position.


What do you mean by "same position"? Are you claiming all these countries have had a similar number of excess deaths between 2020 and now?


----------



## elbows (Nov 4, 2022)

Well I found Australia data that allowed me to repeat the exercise I've recently done for England & Wales data. Unlike England & Wales where all sorts of vivid pandemic pictures leap out of even the most basic graphs when I compare all deaths by age over a number of pre-pandemic and pandemic years, I dont appear to be able to build the same sort of stories out of the Australian data at all.

I'll probably keep trying, but for now I'll have to rely on more sophisticated analysis by others. For example:









						newsGP - Why are more people dying in Australia? Many questions remain
					

While it is clear that COVID-19 is increasing the mortality rate, its lingering impact may be far greater than is presently understood.




					www1.racgp.org.au
				






> The Actuaries Institute analysis estimates that a little more than half the excess deaths until the end of May were due to COVID-19 – with an estimated 4200 people dying ‘from’ the disease – making it likely to be the third largest cause of death in Australia this year. Leaving aside an estimated 1280 people who died ‘with’ COVID, that leaves 3700 other deaths where the background increase is not clear.
> 
> While much remains unknown, there is detail on which diseases seem to have shifted.
> 
> According to the institute, deaths from respiratory disease are down this year (around 7%), with cancer mortality sticking close to the expected rate, while deaths from heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, diabetes and dementia are all higher.





> Other ‘unspecified’ diseases also feature highly, accounting for around 11% of the excess – a trend the institute says has been apparent since April 2021. According to the report ‘history suggests non-ischaemic heart diseases probably make up around 25% of deaths from other unspecified causes’.
> 
> But the question remains: why have there been more deaths in these areas this year? For Ms Cutter, previous mortality figure anomalies have been much simpler to unpick.
> 
> ...





> The most likely cause for non-COVID-19 excess deaths, the Actuaries Institute suggests, is ‘post-COVID-19 sequelae or interactions with other causes of death’ that may be having a ‘high’ impact in Australia.
> 
> ‘Studies have shown that COVID-19 is associated with higher subsequent mortality risk from heart disease and other causes,’ its analysis states.
> 
> ...


----------



## elbows (Nov 4, 2022)

Also in terms of deaths in 2020 in Australia, see this sort of article from the same site:









						newsGP - Australian death rate in 2020 lowest on record: AIHW
					

All-cause mortality rates declined by 7.7% from 2019, but there was one PHN where 67% of deaths were still considered ‘premature’.




					www1.racgp.org.au
				






> According to the AIHW, age-standardised mortality rates for all causes combined reached their lowest recorded level in 2020 of 487.7 deaths per 100,000 people, down from 528.4 in 2019.
> 
> The 40.7 fewer deaths per 100,000 people is the biggest drop since 1988 (54.4) while the 8001 fewer deaths in 2020 compared to the previous year is the largest annual decrease since they dropped by 9641 in 1920.



My crude analysis of deaths didnt even manage to capture that drop properly either. Im not enturely sure why. By contrast, the same sort of by age analysis of raw number of deaths in England and Wales did even show up some 'good news' stories such as how we ended up with less deaths in the 1-14 age groups in the years 2020 and 2021 than seen in previous years!


----------



## elbows (Nov 4, 2022)

Another article on that site mentions Singapores excess deaths analysis:



> The research puts the number of excess deaths from the beginning of 2020 to June 2022 as 2490 – taking into account the ageing of the population – with an official COVID-19 death toll of 1403.
> 
> Authors suggest the gap between the figures is due to the impact on those with underlying illnesses, saying further research indicated no variation to expected patterns among those not recently infected.
> 
> ...











						newsGP - All excess deaths in Singapore linked to recent COVID infection: Study
					

A new report from the country’s Ministry of Health attributes the increased death rate to COVID-19’s aggravation of existing illnesses.




					www1.racgp.org.au
				




I havent read the report for myself yet but its at https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librari...ality-during-the-covid-pandemic-18sep2022.pdf


----------



## elbows (Nov 4, 2022)

Also factor in studies like this one:



> Among adults who get COVID-19, one in three fails to return to pre-infection health levels even months later, a new Israeli study suggests.
> 
> After recovery, “about 34.6 percent of participants reported not returning to their baseline health condition,” states a peer-reviewed study by researchers from Maccabi Healthcare Services, one of the country’s four health funds, based on surveys by 699 patients conducted between one and six months after recovery. On average, respondents were five months after recovery.
> 
> The study, led by Maccabi’s head of research and innovation Dr. Tal Palaton, highlighted the prevalence of symptoms including memory disturbances and muscle pain, and warned of the public health consequences of long COVID. Policymakers “should expect a significant impact of this syndrome on public health,” it said.











						Israeli long COVID study: 1 in 3 people fail to regain regular health months later
					

Spotlighting the 'immense and evolving’ impact of COVID on human health, large study by health fund points to prevalence of symptoms including memory disturbances and muscle pain




					www.timesofisrael.com


----------



## elbows (Nov 4, 2022)

I skimmed the Singapore report. Theres also a figure in there that may help people to understand the benefits of vaccination, while still making it clear that many of the covid deaths will be in people who were vaccinated:



> There was an over-representation of persons who were not fully vaccinated, with 28% of COVID-19 deaths occurring in persons who were not fully vaccinated in the first half of 2022, even though only about 5% of the eligible population were not fully vaccinated in mid-March 2022.


----------



## elbows (Nov 4, 2022)

Since I kept going on about it in recent posts, here is a small preview of my very crude analysis of deaths. England and Wales provisional weekly deaths from all causes, by age group. I've done two graphs for each age group, one comparing the three pandemic years, and one comparing 2022 to the years 2010-2019.

I'll post the full set on another thread at some point but here is the 45-64 age group as a taster. I picked this age group deliberately so people dont get too carried away with thoughts about how its only the extremely old who are being affected at all stages of the pandemic so far, although some of whats seen is obviously even more dramatic in the age groups above this one. Figures are for deaths by week they are officially recorded so there are spikes and troughs due to bank holidays, end of year Christmas season etc.


----------



## elbows (Nov 8, 2022)

I was reading a Washington Post article about increased risks of strokes, heart attacks etc in the period after covid, and it happened to mention that apparently there is an extreme, scaremongering version of one of the points I've been toying with about China on this thread:



			archive.ph
		




> Even something as neutral as heart disease risk is politicized when it intersects with the pandemic. “You can’t imagine the attacks I got,” said Jabbour, after he appeared on CNN in 2020 discussing his early observations and study results. That polarization has only deepened — with some people refusing to believe that Covid can have lasting effects, and others posting scare stories that the continued harsh lockdowns in China are part of a plan to triumph over the West as widespread long Covid collapses our work force.
> 
> The reality is some people have been devastated by Covid, even as most fully recover. It takes time, good studies and a lot of cases to get an understanding of the after-effects of infection, and that information is coming from countries that have seen the most cases. The take-home message is that even if you feel fine, past Covid infection is a cardiovascular risk factor, a little like elevated cholesterol. It’s not a reason to despair, but it’s a very good reason to be vigilant.



Until I read that I wasnt aware that others had taken that sort of idea and ran with it to extremes. I suppose I ought to look for examples of that sort of 'China triumphs over the West' fear being stoked, so that I can make sure I do better than that and dont go too far myself, but I havent been able to face looking yet, and Im not sure where to start really. Any ideas?


----------



## Thesaint (Nov 8, 2022)

elbows said:


> I was reading a Washington Post article about increased risks of strokes, heart attacks etc in the period after covid, and it happened to mention that apparently there is an extreme, scaremongering version of one of the points I've been toying with about China on this thread:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I'm not convinced China's response is a devious plan to undermine the west though - More likely old fashioned face saving.

Anyway, wasn't there an Israeli study done on known people known to have covid vs escaped it, comparing heart related side effects? Publisbed probably around spring time this year I think but it was looking at 2020 stats so vaccines wouldn't confuse the issue and concluded there was no difference in what heart issues they looked for between recovered and uninfected people.  It seemed from that long term heart issues didn't have a covid origin.


----------



## elbows (Nov 9, 2022)

There have been multiple Israeli studies. But one of them was used to promote anti-vaccine messages and tends to dominate the search results unless I am careful.

Any single study may have flaws or limitations, so any consensus view that emerges is going to be based on multiple studies.

Here are some examples of studies being discussed that found heart issues:

Heart-disease risk soars after COVID — even with a mild case (probably relates to this study: Covid-19: Even mild infections can cause long term heart problems, large study finds )









						How does Covid-19 affect your heart?
					

We explain how coronavirus progresses in the body, including how it can affect your heart and circulatory system.




					www.bhf.org.uk
				












						Heart Problems after COVID-19
					

Chest pain, shortness of breath and palpitations can persist after COVID-19. Are they heart related? A cardiologist provides perspective.




					www.hopkinsmedicine.org
				




This one might be good since it acknowledges concerns for the future but also gaps in existing knowledge, studies that arent showing such a high frequency of cases, some of the possible limitations of the studies that found a large problem, etc:









						Heart disease after COVID: what the data say
					

Some studies suggest that the risk of cardiovascular problems, such as a heart attack or stroke, remains high even many months after a SARS-CoV-2 infection clears up. Researchers are starting to pin down the frequency of these issues and what is causing the damage.




					www.nature.com
				




It’s going to require more time and sadly it’s not surprising that really clear answers often dont emerge easily. Probably best to assume that there is a real issue here, but we dont know its true scale or the extent that it will end up impacting obviously on groups who are younger and generally considered to be more healthy. This means it might not end up being a big enough issue that normal people will notice it via anecdotes relating to younger people they know, and will instead be one of those factors that blends into the general impression that overall human population health is affected by the ongoing presence of this virus, having an impact on overall life expectancy statistics and the sort of excess death figures we were talking about recently on this thread.

And certainly this heart stuff along with other issues such as strokes and the longer term impact of long covid stuff should be viewed in a similar balanced way - eg it doesnt completely destroy the workforce in the manner we might imagine would be presented in dramatic movie fiction. But it could still impact on the workforce details in a way that has a notable effect over a longer period of time. There has after all been some impact already, and as we know from other aspects of the pandemic, a small percentage of a large number can still be notable in its impact.

So at this stage I would use this impression to throw away the silly comic book version of Chinas ‘cunning plan’, not to support it. And I still haven’t gone looking for what sort of extreme stuff some people have been spouting along those lines. But perhaps a far more nuanced version of that angle may have a little merit to it, I would suggest it’s still a bit early to say. Which also means it’s too early to judge whether the picture the Australian doctor painted is reasonable or over the top In certain respects. Likewise my own attitude at this stage of the pandemic, which I’ve always acknowledged is bound to be guided by certain versions of erring on the side of caution.


----------



## elbows (Nov 9, 2022)

And if stuff like heart issues can seem contentious, thats nothing compared to t-cell stuff and the pronouncements of Leonardi.









						What If COVID Reinfections Wear Down Our Immunity? | The Tyee
					

Dr. Anthony Leonardi is a lightning rod for debate. If he’s right, this pandemic poses a greater threat than widely assumed.




					thetyee.ca
				




It isnt so easy to advise people appropriately on how to view such things. I dont think its wise to completely ignore such angles, but its also not a good idea to become a 'true believer' and buy wholeheartedly into the very worst predictions. And to err on the side of caution in such matters means taking a very different approach to the pandemic than the one thats already been taken. Ultimately it may not even be a question of whether these phenomenon are true, more like what the scale of the implications ends up being. If I try to take a moderate view and hedge my bets, this sort of stuff still ends up feeding into the idea that the public health picture has been changed by this virus, with all sorts of implications, but its difficult to guess the appropriate weight of those implications. And so its also hard to judge whether Chinas approach, even if guided by things like saving face and political considerations, will end up being seen to have come with some bonus results that count for something when the dust settles.

The Leonardi stuff gives me a headache because I dont like quacks or too much certainty to be expressed. But Im also of the mistakes the orthodox consensus experts have made earlier in this pandemic. And that loud orthodox failure was, back in the era when I talked about it most, very biased in favour of believing things that were most convenient for society and the economy to believe - eg the role of asymptomatic infections and airborne transmission, both of which should have been seen as plausible even to a layperson, were denied at a crucial moment, because they had implications for how far we needed to go to protect ourselves, how much we would have to stop normal life and normal economic activity. So it does not seem sensible to assume that this sort of bias has gone away given that the stakes are high, with the prize of enabling the 'return to normal' agenda to have dominated in the current phase? That above article spends a long time looking at the more dramatic, soap-opera side of this particular controversy, and overall I'd say its rather biased towards telling a story that Leonardi was right all along. The real action is to be found in all the proper research on this topic, and although that article does start to dwell on other peoples research later in the article, I can only use this as a starting point, not as a fair review of what all those studies said.


----------



## elbows (Nov 9, 2022)

I havent had much time this year or indeed last year to look at how the pandemic is reported on in different countries. I need to do more of that so I had a look at this short tv piece from Australia. Despite the headline the short video covers a few other topics too. Note that I believe that what they call RAT is what we call lateral flow tests.









						Research finds long COVID has rapidly ageing effect on body
					

Dr Norman Swan has warned people need to avoid getting another COVID-19 infection after new research found long COVID can have an ageing effect on the body.




					www.abc.net.au


----------



## 2hats (Nov 9, 2022)

Rapid Antigen Test, also known as a Lateral Flow Test.

They are doubtless referring to a growing range of findings increasingly pointing to significant vascular associated disease burden for any SARS-CoV-2 infection, even after asymptomatic episodes.









						Accelerated biological aging in COVID-19 patients - Nature Communications
					

Age is a risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease. Here the authors perform DNA methylation analyses in whole blood from COVID-19 patients using established epigenetic clocks and telomere length estimators, and describing correlations between epigenetic aging and the risk of...




					www.nature.com
				












						Long-term neurological sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection - Nature Medicine
					

We show that patients who survive the first 30 days of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection have an increased risk of various post-acute neurological disorders after 1 year compared with uninfected contemporaries. The burden of these sequelae (aspects of â€˜long COVIDâ€™) has serious implications for...




					www.nature.com
				









						Large UK Biobank study finds COVID-19 infection is linked to subsequent poor cardiovascular health
					

Researchers from Queen Mary University of London find that people requiring hospital admission due to COVID-19 have a high risk of subsequent cardiovascular problems.



					www.qmul.ac.uk
				



DOI:10.1136/heartjnl-2022-321492.









						COVID and the Heart: It Spares No One | Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
					

New evidence suggests anyone infected with COVID is at higher risk for heart issues—a risk that persists even in relatively healthy people long after the illness has passed.




					publichealth.jhu.edu
				



DOI:10.1038/s41591-022-01689-3.






						Long COVID: long-term health outcomes and implications for policy and research - Nature Reviews Nephrology
					

Long COVID, which refers to post-acute and chronic sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection, can affect nearly every organ system and all demographic groups. The high and growing toll of long COVID calls for an urgent need to understand how to prevent and treat it. Governments and health systems must...




					www.nature.com


----------



## 2hats (Nov 9, 2022)

On a global approach to end the COVID-19 public health threat:


> Cross-cutting themes for action to end COVID-19 as a public health threat
> 
> SARS-CoV-2 still moves among us - despite some governments moving on - requiring continued efforts and resources to save lives. Reservoirs exist from which variants of concern may yet emerge; possible endemicity does not necessarily mean lower disease severity. Broad-based funding to develop long-lasting immunogenic vaccines must proceed concurrent with other prevention measures. The long-term impact of infection must be assessed, as long COVID has emerged as a chronic condition.
> 
> ...











						A multinational Delphi consensus to end the COVID-19 public health threat - Nature
					

A diverse, multidisciplinary panel of 386 experts in COVID-19 response from 112 countries provides health and social policy actions to address inadequacies in the pandemic response and help to bring this public health threat to an end.




					www.nature.com


----------



## elbows (Nov 9, 2022)

Yes I stuck that study in the nerdy detail thread a little earlier today.

I wont be surprised if history ultimately judges that it was a rather large error indeed to 'let our guards down' to this extent before the availability of a vaccine that could do far more to prevent infection and transmission (and other treatments and preventatives).


----------



## elbows (Nov 9, 2022)

Plus as usual this is not really a picture that required a huge amount of hindsight, some of the signs and logic to it have been there since early on. But the number of people prepared to complain loudly about the chosen establishment approach has diminished a lot compared to the reaction people had to the pandemic in the first few waves. And that change was visible here nearly a year ago now, and just look at how few people engage with this covid forum these days. 'lockdown fatigue and a desire for normalcy' is an understandable thing, but its still not very impressive.

From the industrial revolution to the heavy promotion of the 'learning to live with covid' agenda, Great Blighton strikes again.


----------



## elbows (Nov 9, 2022)

Gotta 'love' the choice of headline on this one:









						Scientists made mini brains and infected them with coronavirus. What they saw could explain Long COVID
					

An “excessive number” of synapses were eliminated during the course of the disease, “more than you would expect to see in a normal brain,” the authors wrote.




					fortune.com


----------



## Thesaint (Nov 12, 2022)

elbows said:


> Plus as usual this is not really a picture that required a huge amount of hindsight, some of the signs and logic to it have been there since early on. But the number of people prepared to complain loudly about the chosen establishment approach has diminished a lot compared to the reaction people had to the pandemic in the first few waves. And that change was visible here nearly a year ago now, and just look at how few people engage with this covid forum these days. 'lockdown fatigue and a desire for normalcy' is an understandable thing, but its still not very impressive.
> 
> From the industrial revolution to the heavy promotion of the 'learning to live with covid' agenda, Great Blighton strikes again.


Ah the benefit of hindsight. 
Yes the world's has moved on from covid in part because it simply isn't scary or dramatic anymore and other things are more pressing from the media, government's or people's perspective.

I think though the issue will return to the fore one day a bit more but not because of some quirkily named subvariant but in the form of inquiries both official and unofficial in the aftermath which excess deaths might eventually get studied.  This process won't be fast if Hillsborough is anything to go by.

Many of those who were critical the govs response may find these with hind-sight inquiries uncomfortable though so shouting about it doesn't look so wise now. The recession were are likely to go through is a post-lockdown recession and the impacts of that will be felt hard.


----------



## two sheds (Nov 12, 2022)

You didn't answer my question (asked twice now): Did you initially support herd immunity and if so do you feel vindicated now?


----------



## elbows (Nov 12, 2022)

Well the public inquiry is going to explore the modelling and the downsides of lockdown. However they wont really be able to 'prove' that there was an overreaction, al the fundamentals still point to large numbers of additional lives being saved if we had locked down a week or two earlier, and a vast quantity of death if we hadnt locked down at all. There are plenty of shitheads who dont want to believe that, and will indulge in pathetic revisionist history now. But no matter what spin they put on things, governments would still be forced to do the same sort of stuff if they face the same situation in future, such are the fundamentals of exponential growth of a disease that has high rates of hospital admission and death. Staggering numbers of older people were incredibly vulnerable to the virus in the pre-vaccine era and thanks to the efforts of people who recognised the risks and did the right thing, huge numbers of those people were kept away from the virus until we were well into the vaccine era.

As for recessions, there are many factors including a bunch that are nothing to do with the pandemic and our response to it, and some that are related to the pandemic. Only people with a particular agenda will choose to blame a single cause for the recession, only those with an axe to grind about lockdowns will seek to make the recession all about lockdown. Besides, even if this country had decided to ignore the virus and carry on without strong measures, we would not have escaped economic woe. Death isnt good for economic growth. And without a formal lockdown huge numbers of people would still have taken matters into their own hands and ceased normal economic activity during the first waves. And other countries would still have acted strongly, affecting supply chains etc. Plus as each year passes we will find out more about what long covid has done to the labour market. And if action here had been weak all the way along, we'd have seen plenty more of the phenomenon of people getting pissed off with the extent to which their employers placed them in harms way, inspiring them to seek alternative employment or become economically inactive.


----------



## Thesaint (Nov 15, 2022)

elbows said:


> Well the public inquiry is going to explore the modelling and the downsides of lockdown. However they wont really be able to 'prove' that there was an overreaction, al the fundamentals still point to large numbers of additional lives being saved if we had locked down a week or two earlier, and a vast quantity of death if we hadnt locked down at all. There are plenty of shitheads who dont want to believe that, and will indulge in pathetic revisionist history now. But no matter what spin they put on things, governments would still be forced to do the same sort of stuff if they face the same situation in future, such are the fundamentals of exponential growth of a disease that has high rates of hospital admission and death. Staggering numbers of older people were incredibly vulnerable to the virus in the pre-vaccine era and thanks to the efforts of people who recognised the risks and did the right thing, huge numbers of those people were kept away from the virus until we were well into the vaccine era.
> 
> As for recessions, there are many factors including a bunch that are nothing to do with the pandemic and our response to it, and some that are related to the pandemic. Only people with a particular agenda will choose to blame a single cause for the recession, only those with an axe to grind about lockdowns will seek to make the recession all about lockdown. Besides, even if this country had decided to ignore the virus and carry on without strong measures, we would not have escaped economic woe. Death isnt good for economic growth. And without a formal lockdown huge numbers of people would still have taken matters into their own hands and ceased normal economic activity during the first waves. And other countries would still have acted strongly, affecting supply chains etc. Plus as each year passes we will find out more about what long covid has done to the labour market. And if action here had been weak all the way along, we'd have seen plenty more of the phenomenon of people getting pissed off with the extent to which their employers placed them in harms way, inspiring them to seek alternative employment or become economically inactive.


Recessions are cyclical but the cost of furlough, business loans, and subsidies and the cost of track and trace will have caused a recession on their own.  As you say there are other external factors like energy price spikes, which combine to make it worse.   

I can't remember exactly what the (first) inquiry will look at but there is a lot of issues to consider and some only maybe become apparent afterwards. Consider the rumoured £37bn spend on track and trace...was it worth that colossal amount given it's results, and that money would have been better spent now on limiting excess deaths?   These questions need objectively examining for inevitable next time but I know inquiries are fast but it's still going to be too soon for some I feel.

There will be some revisionist behaviour with people backtracking over things they said or claimed as it things become more apparent. Some will quietly slope away, others dig in even harder and a few accept it. Piers Morgan despite his reputation has at least acknowledged he said and tweeted things he was rash to have done to his credit. Didn't think I would ever write that😳

Impact on the labour market is like recessions where you can't always point at one thing. A lot of people attitude to working and commuting has changed since 2020 and can't all be blamed on employers H&S approach to covid.


----------



## elbows (Nov 15, 2022)

The things you mention cause government debty, they dont cause recessions on their own. It was inevitable that the economy would shrink during the lockdowns, but a large chunk of the entire point of propping things up during those times via furlough etc was to make sure that much of that damage was temporary and that things bounced back afterwards. Which was broadly what happened.

Test & trace was botched in many ways, and what it could have achieved even if working as well as possible was overstated. For example some people suggested you could use it instead of lockdowns, but I kept saying that one of the purposes of having a large testing system is actually to provide data that better informs authorities about when the right time to lockdown is. But when thats coupled with authorities that seek to delay lockdowns for as long as possible, only paying lip-service to the test & trace data until the hospital data demonstrates that the lockdown can be delayed no longer, then that advantage is squandered.

Its not appropriate to talk about the billions as if the money involved was simply burnt. A chunk of them was skimmed off as disgusting profiteering for the benefit of a few, but large amounts of money from such programmes still went on normal peoples wages to run the systems, and that money gets recycled into the economy as normal.

As for spending money on reducing excess deaths, thats a complex picture too. Certainly I would not have cut back health spending at the earliest opportunity like our government has often done. Spending a lot on those things for years to come would help, as would actually fixing the ambulance service, A&E and the broken social care system which is causing much of the bed blocking that then clogs up those other parts of the system. But the other problem with the excess death conversation involves going round in circles with this discussion like we have in the past, because the excess deaths arent just down to NHS backlogs and system pressures and whatever some people want to attribute to the impact of lockdowns past, some portion of them are caused by ongoing covid infections, and infections people have suffered in the past. And unpicking that isnt trivial, with people having different sorts of deaths they'd rather focus on to serve their particular stance. In any case, whatever the true impact of ongoing infections, long covid and other related longer term health implications are, finding a way to minimise the ongoing health impact of covid is certainly a part of the picture. And we'll achieve nothing on those front by focussing on the crap arguments of those with an axe to grind about how they believe we overreacted towards covid in the past. So dont talk to me about reducing excess deaths unless you've got something useful to suggest in regards how we live with covid now and in the future.


----------



## Thesaint (Nov 15, 2022)

elbows said:


> dont talk to me about reducing excess deaths unless you've got something useful to suggest in regards how we live with covid now and in the future.


The governments finances will ultimately effect for how future healthcare is paid for. 

You are one of the few that take a the time to look at all these things despite everyone losing interest, and while we might disagree on things and our viewpoints, everyone agreeing on things in a group think is even worse - but want to shut another poster down asap. 

The next stage of covid will involve a lot of brutal reflection of what worked and what didn't and that is going to be tough so best wishes with the next stage.


----------



## elbows (Nov 15, 2022)

There are no strong indicators of a brutal period of reflection. The economic circumstances this country faces are not being primarily labelled as a pandemic issue, because a lot of the framing has involved Ukraine & energy prices, and the doomed Truss budget. There is room to include the pandemic and indeed Brexit in the true mix, but the extent to which this will actually happen is far from clear. The only people who are currently confident that the pandemic will get its 'fair share' of the blame for inflation etc are people who have a lockdown axe to grind.

The public inquiry will drag things along at slow pace, and its not clear exactly how much attention it will receive, which partly depends on what evidence the press considers to be dramatic and worthy of headlines. They inquiry team have already made it clear that both 'sides' will be focussed on during the module that will look at early decision making, including the modelling and the political decisions by Johnson etc. Probably both sides will find stuff comes up that they can use to support their existing beliefs on that stuff.

Complaints about groupthink are understandable but are often just a distraction by people with shit views who wont actually answer specific questions about those views that others ask of them. And the complaint is usually really a complaint that people dont accept their stance, that your stance doesnt get to be the chosen one of the group, and that others want to pick at your details. My own stance has definite limits in terms of how much others on this forum choose to go along with it, there are many nuances, some of which are inevitably lost during periods where I come out with all guns blazing. And I certainly dont deny that people pay less attention these days, since the imminent risk picture changed due to the changed immunity picture. So be it. People that always disliked lockdowns etc are bound to think that the common consensus might start to shift, that there is more room for revisionist history now that people are suffering the longer term burdens of various things. But I think they are mistaken about the extent to which all these details have enabled the majority to have a change of heart about how we responded to the pandemic, not least because of the number of people who lost loved ones or otherwise have consistently understood the extent to which blame should be directed at the virus and our inadequate response to it. There have always been people who sought to downplay the number of deaths, but the extent to which others will adopt their view with the benefit of hindsight is likely far more limited than they seem to think.


----------



## elbows (Nov 15, 2022)

Meanwhile I see that in China things reached the stage where the backlash against ongoing heavy restrictions has more opportunities to make itself felt. And the regime has started to tweak the rules, offering a glimpse at how they might gradually change their approach whilst still attempting to 'save face'. Issues of how the covid threat is judged there, and of control of information, and poor information quality, has gotten all mixed in with uneasiness about any change in approach, leading to understandable but somewhat absurd rumours that are causing issues.

So some situations have been documented where rumours start spreading about their authorities letting a large group of people get infected 'as an experiment' and people onbviously dont react well to being confronted with such fears and try to run away from that perceived plight. This has been mentioned in articles such as these recent BBC ones:









						China Covid: Beijing eases some curbs despite rising cases
					

Mandatory quarantine is slightly reduced as public resentment bubbles away over the strict rules.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				












						China Covid: Panic and fear drove iPhone factory breakout
					

Workers at the plant in Zhengzhou, China, thought they were going to be part of a huge Covid experiment.



					www.bbc.co.uk
				




eg:



> Take a 21-year-old Foxconn worker who had been hearing the rumours for a while. The more the stories and speculation continued, the more extreme they were becoming.
> 
> It didn't help that her immediate bosses at Foxconn were saying that there were no Covid infections in the factory while the company was telling the media that there were no "symptomatic" infections. And yet there were plenty of known examples of staff who had tested positive.
> 
> ...



I suppose in some ways this is another angle on the extremes which I've mentioned on this thread in recent weeks. A giddy mix of stuff that doesnt include enough appreciation of the most sensible ways to judge covid risk, a risk picture that varies per person based on things like their age, health conditions and vaccination status. 

Our own countries extremes in the other direction can still be glimpsed at times via the nature of the reporting. For example the article doesnt dwell on the detail of how to really build a true risk picture. Consider this part of the 2nd article:



> A key problem has been widespread ignorance about the nature of the illness. In much of China, people are as terrified of catching the virus as if it were cancer.
> 
> The Chinese government has done little to alter these misunderstandings and, in fact, has often made them worse.
> 
> The narrative from those in charge here has been that elsewhere, Covid has been cutting a swathe through the population, but Chinese people should consider themselves lucky because they have the Communist Party to protect them with the zero-Covid approach.





> It is true that this strategy has stopped the country's hospitals from being swamped and it is true that Covid has resulted in a tragic loss of lives.
> 
> However, it is also true that - for the vast majority of infected people who have been vaccinated - catching the virus means a few days sick at home and nothing more.
> 
> This last point is something that many in China are completely unaware of.



Of course it is fair to point out the misleading picture the authorities there have encouraged. And vaccines as a way of reducing risk and changing the equations are mentioned. But instead of going further into detail about how age and health conditions further influence risk, instead of acknowledging the unknowns about long covid and other longer term health consequences, continued excess deaths etc in our own country, the article relies on the phrase 'vast majority' to do the heavy lifting. Heavy lifting by relying on the concept of the vast majority in order to remove all the nuances of the subject, to remove true sense of scale, to remove any proper discussion of what the most appropriate balance might be, to firmly bake in our own extreme opposite of Chinas extreme.


----------



## elbows (Nov 17, 2022)

elbows said:


> There are no strong indicators of a brutal period of reflection. The economic circumstances this country faces are not being primarily labelled as a pandemic issue, because a lot of the framing has involved Ukraine & energy prices, and the doomed Truss budget. There is room to include the pandemic and indeed Brexit in the true mix, but the extent to which this will actually happen is far from clear. The only people who are currently confident that the pandemic will get its 'fair share' of the blame for inflation etc are people who have a lockdown axe to grind.



I have now briefly tested whether this theory is holding up, by having a look on twitter to see who has this afternoon been loudly blaming lockdown for todays budget.

No surprise to see it was all the usual suspects who have been consistently horrific during this pandemic:

Toby Young, Richard Tice, Dan Wootton, Darren Grimes, to name some of the most obvious ones who have been at it again today.

edit - and just to be clear, the budget statement itself mentions a whole bunch of ways in which the pandemic contributed to inflation, and also labour shortages. But unlike the shitheads, it doesnt wrap all that into the idea that it was the fault of a lockdown that could have been avoided. The dodgy logic of those who make that bogus claim has not won the majority over in the past, and I have no reason to anticipate it will do so in future. And so there is no great reckoning to come except in the imagination of those who continue to spout drivel about lockdowns.

All the same it does remind me that my choice of language in that previous post was imperfect. I said "The only people who are currently confident that the pandemic will get its 'fair share' of the blame for inflation etc are people who have a lockdown axe to grind.". I shouldnt have said 'the pandemic' because many people understand the role the virus played in our current situation. But there wont be some fantasy 'hell to pay' reckoning about this because people understand what we could and could not have avoided doing in order to fight the virus, so they arent going to lose their shit and conclude that entirely avoidable lockdowns made a big economic mess that we could otherwise have dodged. So in sentences like the one I quoted I should have stuck more to phrases like 'the imagined unnecessary lockdowns' than 'the pandemic'.

By the way, the UK government are also going to look at the big hole the pandemic has made in the labourt market. Quoting from todays budget statement:



> I am proud to live in a country with one of the most comprehensive safety nets anywhere in the world…
> …but also concerned that we have seen a sharp increase in economically inactive working age adults of 630,000 since the start of the pandemic.
> 
> Employment levels have yet to return to pre-pandemic levels which is bad for businesses who cannot fill vacancies and bad for people missing out on the opportunity to do well for themselves and their families.
> ...



Hopefully if this sort of angle comes up again it will be on a more appropriate thread than this global one.


----------



## elbows (Nov 22, 2022)

Another BBC article about China, with Scott making a reasonable point in this tweet.

Its a shame I cant trust official deaths stats to the point of being able to make direct comparisons without needing to include a caveat, but even so:



> Strict lockdowns mean China's death toll has stayed low ever since the start of the pandemic - the official figure is now just over 5,200.
> 
> This reported figure equates to three Covid deaths in every million in China, compared with 3,000 per million in the US and 2,400 per million in the UK.



The BBC article also includes a China vaccination by older age group chart which adds to the sense of what the risks still are there, along with mentioning concerns about how good their vaccines are.


----------



## passenger (Nov 23, 2022)

..


----------



## elbows (Nov 24, 2022)

There is certainly a better balance of reality in the BBCs China covid reporting now that they seem to more often include the death figures like the ones I mentioned in the previous post, and also bits like this from the most recent reporting. I've got no problem with them reporting on the pain, problems and dangers of Chinas current approach so long as reports dont lose sight of these other factors by which they've backed themselves into a corner. And I'll have no problem with their approach being seen as a disaster if various things continue to deteriorate over time, especially if they end up with the worst of both worlds by losing more grip over the virus while still maintaining a damaging grip over peoples daily lives. Its been clear for a very long time that they failed to set themselves up for the most optimal and optimally timed exit strategy, and that carries great risks of its own.



> Scientists here can also see that China's vaccination rates are way too low, especially amongst vulnerable groups. What is more, not enough resources have been diverted into expanding medical facilities to cope with a massive influx of patients following any opening-up.











						China Covid: Record number of cases as virus surges nationwide
					

Residents in thousands of Beijing tower blocks are ordered to remain indoors as workplaces shut down.



					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## elbows (Nov 27, 2022)

I wonder what will happen with China, I find it very difficult to predict as the outcome of unrest against notoriously repressive regimes is always very tricky to call. And its now been a very long time since people first questioned, with good reason, Chinas exit strategy/lack of exit strategy. I know I have used the situation in China and the reporting of it over time to make all sorts of other points along the way, but that doesnt mean I disagree with the very obvious downsides to the Chinese approach, or fail to see the various terrible downsides and risks it poses. 

It is also pleasing to hope that this fuckup could ultimately end up giving people more freedom there, although its very difficult to solidify such hopes at this stage. Plus as well as the unknowns in regards the power of the masses on the streets etc, there are also unknowns about whether the way this is going will change the internal party dynamics, eg whether there is anyone within the system who may seek to turn this into an opportunity to gain power at the expense of those who have been consolidating power for years.

Even if dissent were to be kept in check, from a disease prevention perspective the current approach is in even more peril because as the virus has evolved it has gained advantages that make keeping infection numbers down has become harder. So they arguably require even more compliance in order to hope to make the existing approach work, and are more likely to get the opposite of that these days. What a fucking mess.


----------



## elbows (Nov 28, 2022)

I see the BBC live updates page about the China situation included an entry on the health situation:



> Most of the world used lockdowns to buy time in order to develop and roll out Covid vaccines.
> 
> China is still dependent on strict controls.
> 
> ...





> And far too few of the elderly - who are most likely to die from Covid - have been immunised.
> 
> Another consequence of stopping the virus in its tracks is there is very little "natural immunity" from people surviving infections.
> 
> All this leaves China with a massive problem. The new variants spread far more quickly than the virus that emerged three years ago and there is a constant risk of it being imported from countries that are letting the virus spread.





> If China doesn't lock down at first sight of the virus then it risks the horrors of the early days of the pandemic.
> 
> Estimates from March this year suggested ending zero-Covid could overwhelm hospitals and lead to around 1.5 million deaths.
> 
> The choice is between being dependent on lockdowns in the long term and solving the country's immunity problem.



From https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/wor...8496656967ef5dc5398fb2&pinned_post_type=share

I havent looked at those estimates from March properly yet.


----------



## elbows (Nov 28, 2022)

I suppose the key bit they were on about from the March study, which would have applied wo an Omicron wave earlier this year in the absense of non-pharmaceutical interventions, was:



> Our simulated baseline scenario suggests that, in the absence of strict NPIs, the introduction of the Omicron variant in China in March 2022 could have the potential to generate a tsunami of COVID-19 cases. Over a 6-month simulation period, such an epidemic is projected to cause 112.2 million symptomatic cases (79.58 per 1,000 individuals), 5.1 million hospital (non-ICU) admissions (3.60 per 1,000 individuals), 2.7 million ICU admissions (1.89 per 1,000 individuals) and 1.6 million deaths (1.10 per 1,000 individuals), with a main wave occurring between May and July 2022 (Figs. 1 and 2).











						Modeling transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron in China - Nature Medicine
					

Estimates from a new modeling study suggest that current levels of vaccine coverage in China are insufficient to prevent overwhelming the healthcare system, and that, if left untreated, a nationwide Omicron wave could result in up to 1.55 million deaths.




					www.nature.com
				




Probably best to think about that sort of thing as the raw potential of the virus, rather than an exact scenario that can actually happen, since we know that once such a situation starts to develop some kind of response happens, behavioural changes happen. And we arent usually looking at a choice of no NPIs at all, even when people have had enough of the really strong measures.


----------



## 2hats (Nov 30, 2022)

Introducing bat SARS-like coronavirus BtSY2, perhaps a progenitor candidate for SARS-CoV-3, a recombinant coronavirus with human ACE2 receptor affinity, and as such, likely to be of high zoonotic risk.


> Functional analysis indicated that Bat SARS-like coronavirus BtSY2 likely has the ability to the bind human ACE2 receptor, and even has slightly higher affinity than SARS-CoV-2 Wuhan-Hu 1. […] these data tentatively suggest that *BtSY2 may be able to replicate rapidly with similar virulence as SARS-CoV*. Although this issue merits further consideration, this virus is potentially of high risk of emergence and so should be monitored carefully.


DOI:10.1101/2022.11.23.517609.


----------



## HAL9000 (Dec 4, 2022)

2hats said:


> Introducing bat SARS-like coronavirus BtSY2, perhaps a progenitor candidate for SARS-CoV-3, a recombinant coronavirus with human ACE2 receptor affinity, and as such, likely to be of high zoonotic risk.
> 
> DOI:10.1101/2022.11.23.517609.



High level summary for those with very limited knowledge of genetics  (like myself). Start at 24 minutes 30 seconds, virus sex..









						Science In Action - COVID spreads in China - BBC Sounds
					

COVID spreads in China




					www.bbc.co.uk


----------



## two sheds (Dec 20, 2022)

Videos of bodies piling up at hospitals in China emerge, experts estimate Covid deaths in millions
					

Videos emerging from China showing bodies piling up at hospitals and crematoriums seem to confirm the claim by medical experts that Covid deaths are likely to have reached millions.




					www.indiatoday.in
				




Wtf? Is this accurate and if so how come - surely they'll have been vaccinating people.


----------



## elbows (Dec 20, 2022)

two sheds said:


> Videos of bodies piling up at hospitals in China emerge, experts estimate Covid deaths in millions
> 
> 
> Videos emerging from China showing bodies piling up at hospitals and crematoriums seem to confirm the claim by medical experts that Covid deaths are likely to have reached millions.
> ...


Some of the language is inaccurate, eg modelling estimates for a million or two million deaths are for time periods such as the year of 2023, the millions of deaths havent happened yet.

Vaccines dont eliminate covid death, they reduce it. The extent to which we would still expect to see deaths is dependant on factors such as:

How good your vaccines are
Getting booster shots at the right time
What proportion of the most vulnerable people got the vaccines and boosters
Properties of the version of the virus in circulation
Extent to which healthcare is overwhelmed
Levels of immunity in the population from prior infection with the virus
Other treatments for those who got sick
Peoples behaviours and other mitigation measures still in place
How many of the most vulnerable already died in previous waves

China has a very large population, not much immunity from prior infection, and is assumed to score quite poorly on many of the above. So the estimates for how many will die now that they ditched their policy which previously limited number of infections are rather large. The article you mention reflects this but is a bit sloppy at the start, and by relying on those who are prone to dramatic hyperbole such as Eric Feigl-Ding the article ends up with a similar dramatic tone. The fundamentals are no different to the sorts of things I've said all the way through though, the situation there is expected to be grim, as it would be in any other place with the same factors in play. There are still a range of possibilities in terms of how many deaths there will be there, and it is unlikely that we will be able to trust the official numbers either.

I linked to some recent articles about the modelled estimates for China and what the current fears are here:        #1,046


----------



## elbows (Dec 20, 2022)

There were a few other factors missing from my list, such as nature of underlying population health, demographics, population density etc. And when it comes to peoples behaviour, some of the concerns in China are around events such as their new year when vast numbers of people travel, and the nature of the contacts between people and different generations changes for a period.

Another way to think about this is to consider other countries which had a covid suppression strategy until they were well into the vaccine era of the pandemic. Unlike the experience of the UK and many others, these countries would always be expected to see larger death spikes in the vaccine era, once restrictions were lifted, than they experienced in the early, pre-vaccine waves. Because they kept the number of infections down in the early waves, and vaccines dont save everyone.

So take for example Australia. On paper they would not score as poorly as China with some of the items in my list, eg we dont question the efficacy of their vaccines in the way we question Chinas. And unlike China, they probably did a much better job of getting their older population vaccinated and then boosted. And there will be differences in terms of population density, nature of many jobs and on-the-job contacts etc. As the following graph demonstrates, they still saw more action on the deaths graph in the vaccine era than they experienced earlier, but obviously the scale is not the same as what is expected in China. Some assumptions about China are based on the experience of Hong Kong.


From Australia COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer


----------



## elbows (Dec 20, 2022)

Hong Kong graph to go with my final point in my previous post:



From Hong Kong COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer


----------



## CNT36 (Dec 20, 2022)

2hats said:


> Introducing bat SARS-like coronavirus BtSY2, perhaps a progenitor candidate for SARS-CoV-3, a recombinant coronavirus with human ACE2 receptor affinity, and as such, likely to be of high zoonotic risk.
> 
> DOI:10.1101/2022.11.23.517609.


Thanks for that. An interesting article.
I wonder given the genetic similarity with SARS-CoV-2 and the small number of amino acid substitutions in the RBD how efficacious the Spike based vaccines might be.


----------



## CNT36 (Dec 20, 2022)

It also reminded me of this Podcast from a couple of years ago. It eventually gets onto how it is possible to identify all viruses with spillover potential if only someone would pay for it. It's expensive but not pandemic expensive.


----------



## Mr Retro (Dec 20, 2022)

two sheds said:


> Videos of bodies piling up at hospitals in China emerge, experts estimate Covid deaths in millions
> 
> 
> Videos emerging from China showing bodies piling up at hospitals and crematoriums seem to confirm the claim by medical experts that Covid deaths are likely to have reached millions.
> ...


No, it isn't accurate. Brainless Covid Cult Society members, of which Feigl-Ding is one of the heads, need to sell the fear.


----------



## two sheds (Dec 20, 2022)

thank fuck for that


----------



## Yossarian (Dec 20, 2022)

two sheds said:


> Videos of bodies piling up at hospitals in China emerge, experts estimate Covid deaths in millions
> 
> 
> Videos emerging from China showing bodies piling up at hospitals and crematoriums seem to confirm the claim by medical experts that Covid deaths are likely to have reached millions.
> ...



The toll will probably reach millions in the months ahead, most of them elderly people with underlying conditions, but few of them will be counted as COVID deaths.

_Beijing health officials Tuesday said that only those who had directly died of respiratory failure caused by the virus would be counted under Covid death statistics.

“At present after being infected with the Omicron variant, the main cause of death remains underlying diseases,” Wang Guiqiang of Peking University First Hospital told a press conference of the National Health Commission (NHC).

“Old people have other underlying conditions, only a very small number die directly of respiratory failure caused by infection with Covid,” they added._









						'No more space' at China's crematoriums as Covid-19 cases soar - Hong Kong Free Press HKFP
					

By Laurie Chen and Matthew Walsh Crematoriums across China are straining to deal with an influx of bodies as the country battles a wave of Covid cases that authorities have said is impossible to track. Cases are soaring across China, with hospitals struggling and pharmacy shelves stripped bare...




					hongkongfp.com


----------



## elbows (Dec 20, 2022)

Mr Retro said:


> No, it isn't accurate. Brainless Covid Cult Society members, of which Feigl-Ding is one of the heads, need to sell the fear.


In September 2020 you were not happy with the levels of fear or the suggestions of what strong measures would be required to cope with the second wave. After getting into a war of words with various people here, complaining about the 'hive mind' etc you said that you would see us all back here on October 13th 2020 to see if we were on track for 200 deaths a day. I dont remember you actually returning at the promised time, nor on 25th October 2020 when we had gone past that 200 a day mark, nor during November 2020 when daily deaths were in the 300-400 range, nor for that winters peak that saw over 1000 deaths per day for 15 days in a row. Instead you had the luxury of pissing off from posting until the following summer, when you returned to demonstrate your broadly unchanged stance despite the unpleasant wave of death we had experienced in the meantime. And the number I used to indicate that timeline arent even UK deaths, they are deaths for England alone, due to some rather tedious changes to the dashboard these days (certain UK nations stopped counting deaths within 28 days of a positive test so the dashboard these days tends to zoom into England when trying to look at certain UK figures)

There are a range of opinions seen during this pandemic, with some people falling towards the extremes at either end. If people would rather not place their faith in either extreme end of that spectrum, then they certainly shouldnt listen to you any more than they should take Feigl-Ding in undiluted form. I have placed myself on the extreme end of things at times too, due to what I consider to be the extreme consequences of this virus, so people may also want to listen to me less when I'm in that mode, as opposed to my more nuanced and longwinded posts.


----------



## elbows (Dec 20, 2022)

Yossarian said:


> The toll will probably reach millions in the months ahead, most of them elderly people with underlying conditions, but few of them will be counted as COVID deaths.
> 
> _Beijing health officials Tuesday said that only those who had directly died of respiratory failure caused by the virus would be counted under Covid death statistics.
> 
> ...


In that case we'll have to rely on large clues via the pattern of total deaths from all causes for China, and excess death estimates, if such data is actually available for China and considered to be broadly correct. I dont remember whether I've seen that sort of data from China in the past or not.


----------



## Yossarian (Dec 27, 2022)

Good piece here from the South China Morning Post on the unfolding disaster in China - Beijing spent years focusing on zero COVID policies then did an abrupt U-turn, bringing the country into the "everybody has COVID" stage when the health system was entirely unequipped to deal with it.

_...they have tried to give the impression that the abrupt reopening in the middle of winter, when respiratory viral infections usually peak, was planned and thought out. Alas, the reality could not be more starkly different – fever medicine in short supply, hospitals and emergency services swamped, an acute blood shortage in many cities, the death toll soaring among the elderly, and morgues and funeral parlours overwhelmed with bodies.

When my friend wheeled his father’s body into the hospital mortuary, he saw body bags lined up against walls and inside a warehouse as the freezers had run out of space. He was told it would take at least seven days for his father’s body to be cremated because all crematoriums have been overwhelmed by demand....

The government also messed up its vaccination strategy from the outset. When China first started to roll out vaccines, the National Health Commission strongly recommended that only those people aged between 18 and 59 should get jabbed. That gave the impression that the vaccines were not suitable for people over 60, particularly those with underlying medical conditions....

The acute shortage of fever medicine is also a situation of Beijing’s own making. Strict rules have for the past three years discouraged people from buying such medicine over the counter, with the aim of sending anyone infected with the virus to quarantine facilities and makeshift hospitals. That has meant all pharmacies across the country have limited stocks of fever medicine and pharmaceutical firms had significantly curtailed their production of it. Now the authorities have asked them to ramp up production around the clock.
In addition, since medical resources were directed into mass testing and quarantine three years ago, hospitals around the country simply don’t have enough ICU beds and equipment to cope with the surging coronavirus cases.
_


			Welcome to nginx!


----------



## teqniq (Dec 27, 2022)

How on earth could they fuck up so badly?


----------



## elbows (Dec 27, 2022)

teqniq said:


> How on earth could they fuck up so badly?


Authorities are prone to fuck up and highly centralised authoritarian ones which dont tolerate criticism have much more room to expand upon their fuckups to a much greater degree.

This can be mitigated against to some extent via luck, and having leaders that actually manage to make the right call on some major decisions at key moments, and to occasionally demonstrate that they have the right priorities.

Our own form of 'democracy' was capable of many absurdities during this pandemic, but Chinas system gave them the potential to take the absurd to a whole new level.


----------



## teqniq (Dec 27, 2022)

You might think/hope that they would look at all the mistakes that other countries made and think 'well we won't be doing that'. But obviously not. 

E2a Jeez:









						China: More than a million could die from COVID in 2023 – DW – 12/21/2022
					

With crematoriums working 24/7 and 1.6 million predicted deaths, where is the Chinese government's medical response?




					www.dw.com


----------



## kabbes (Dec 27, 2022)

Worth noting that if China do end up with 1.6 million deaths, that would still put their overall death rate at about half that of the UK.


----------



## Combustible (Dec 31, 2022)

kabbes said:


> Worth noting that if China do end up with 1.6 million deaths, that would still put their overall death rate at about half that of the UK.


Closer to a third isn't it? Taking the total UK deaths as 213K, you would expect about 4.5 million deaths in China with the same death rate.


----------



## kabbes (Dec 31, 2022)

Combustible said:


> Closer to a third isn't it? Taking the total UK deaths as 213K, you would expect about 4.5 million deaths in China with the same death rate.


You’re right — I was thinking China has a population of about a billion but I see it’s actually more like 1.5 billion. Time moves on!


----------



## extra dry (Jan 5, 2023)

Researchers study immune response, proteins in blood of young adults who develop rare complication after COVID vaccination 

An article looking at the vaccine and side effects.


----------



## kabbes (Jan 5, 2023)

extra dry said:


> Researchers study immune response, proteins in blood of young adults who develop rare complication after COVID vaccination
> 
> An article looking at the vaccine and side effects.


Specifically, it’s an article looking at the fact that any side effects are so incredibly rare that they are hard to research because they are so hard to find, plus the fact that any side effects that do develop seem pretty straightforwardly treatable.



> It’s estimated that roughly 18 cases occur in every 1 million vaccine doses administered, making it so rare that it is challenging to find cases to investigate…
> …
> Patients with myocarditis can be treated with steroids to reduce inflammation, and there are largely favorable early outcomes for young adults and adolescents who develop this condition after vaccination. The new study may point to additional ways to treat and improve outcomes for patients with post-vaccination myocarditis.


----------



## _Russ_ (Saturday at 9:26 AM)

The Kraken wakes

The Kraken COVID variant is coming — but not yet


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (Sunday at 3:52 PM)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full.pdf
		


i wasn't sure which thread to put this under. It seems very much to suggest that repeated vaccination can lead to an increased risk of getting the omicron variant.


----------



## elbows (Sunday at 5:20 PM)

Kevbad the Bad said:


> https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> i wasn't sure which thread to put this under. It seems very much to suggest that repeated vaccination can lead to an increased risk of getting the omicron variant.



At the moment this observation gets lumped in with other indicators  from other studies which seem to show the same sort of thing. The main theory that offers a possible explanation for this so far is to do with immune imprinting. Which involves the idea that if your immune system meets the same strain of the virus over multiple successive events with reasonable gaps in between them, it might get primed to look for the threat in a rather narrow way in future. So its not as well primed to respond when it meets a version of the virus that has evolved more substantially.

Its important to note that studies which have seen signs of this so far have mostly only been able to quantify the risks of infection, and how the hazard of that is reduced by vaccination, rather than being able to say much about the extent to which this sort of thing is impacting protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and death.

This sort of immune system story also tends to get more complicated as time moves on and people develop increasingly complicated histories of prior vaccination and infection. And we cant say to what extent this immune imprinting will eventually come undone as the immune system meets a greater diversity of virus variants in future.


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (Sunday at 6:48 PM)

elbows said:


> At the moment this observation gets lumped in with other indicators  from other studies which seem to show the same sort of thing. The main theory that offers a possible explanation for this so far is to do with immune imprinting. Which involves the idea that if your immune system meets the same strain of the virus over multiple successive events with reasonable gaps in between them, it might get primed to look for the threat in a rather narrow way in future. So its not as well primed to respond when it meets a version of the virus that has evolved more substantially.
> 
> Its important to note that studies which have seen signs of this so far have mostly only been able to quantify the risks of infection, and how the hazard of that is reduced by vaccination, rather than being able to say much about the extent to which this sort of thing is impacting protection against severe disease, hospitalisation and death.
> 
> This sort of immune system story also tends to get more complicated as time moves on and people develop increasingly complicated histories of prior vaccination and infection. And we cant say to what extent this immune imprinting will eventually come undone as the immune system meets a greater diversity of virus variants in future.


Thanks for all that. the reason I posted it is because a vaccine conspiracist on a local Facebook site is crowing about this as proof that all vaccines have been useless since the pandemic started


----------



## 2hats (Sunday at 7:30 PM)

Kevbad the Bad said:


> https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full.pdf
> 
> 
> 
> i wasn't sure which thread to put this under. It seems very much to suggest that repeated vaccination can lead to an increased risk of getting the omicron variant.


Or repeated vaccination because you are considered vulnerable (in some respect) and/or increased occupational exposure risk and potentially higher viral loads (because, hey - you work in clinical healthcare!) might be greater factors in elevating the risk of developing COVID-19.

Really, that paper is sloppily written and the study poorly designed, riven through with a lorryload of confounders (to their credit they admit to many). It brings no new knowledge to the table. Vaccines prevent severe disease episodes and suitable antigenic exposure histories can be quite effective at even reducing infection/symptomatic episodes, whilst poor antigenic exposure histories (inadequate maturation, imprinting) can lead to less satisfactory outcomes (am still waiting to see if anyone studies administration of bivalent or new mono/polyvalent in the arm not used in the primary series). But here, sadly, they never even bothered to gear the study to shining more light on these factors - which would have been a useful contribution.


----------



## Aladdin (Monday at 11:57 AM)

Read in today's Irish papers that 250000 people in Ireland are suffering from long covid. 
That's seems a very high number.









						County-by-county breakdown of Long Covid sufferers - 230,000 people affected
					

The study also revealed 36,889 of that number are impacted in their daily activities because of it.




					www.irishmirror.ie


----------



## Pickman's model (Monday at 12:04 PM)

Aladdin said:


> Read in today's Irish papers that 250000 people in Ireland are suffering from long covid.
> That's seems a very high number.
> 
> 
> ...


230,000. Not including the six counties.  With 37,000 significantly affected in their daily lives by it


----------



## Aladdin (Monday at 3:01 PM)

Pickman's model said:


> 230,000. Not including the six counties.  With 37,000 significantly affected in their daily lives by it


Yes. 
It's causing havoc in hospitals alongside high rsv rates plus flu plus covid infections.  
CMO recommending mask wearing on public transport and anywhere there are gatherings of people.


----------



## steeplejack (Monday at 4:16 PM)

will it ever end?


----------

