# Hartlepool by-election



## PR1Berske (Mar 16, 2021)

There is to be a by-election held in Hartlepool following the resignation of Mike Hill. He had been subject to allegations of sexual impropriety. 

Wikipedia page : 2021 Hartlepool by-election


Previous result:


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## muscovyduck (Mar 16, 2021)

What's 'sexual impropriety'?


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## PR1Berske (Mar 16, 2021)

muscovyduck said:


> What's 'sexual impropriety'?



"Sexual harassment", my inner thesaurus chose another word I was typing. More info here - Labour MP accused of sexual harassment claims £2,000 in expenses for case


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## muscovyduck (Mar 16, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> "Sexual harassment", my inner thesaurus chose another word I was typing. More info here - Labour MP accused of sexual harassment claims £2,000 in expenses for case


Oh thanks but it looks like the allegation is sexual assault?


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## chilango (Mar 16, 2021)

Hopefully the NIP stand and do well enough to make it interesting.


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## muscovyduck (Mar 16, 2021)

chilango said:


> Hopefully the NIP stand and do well enough to make it interesting.


These people?


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## Santino (Mar 16, 2021)

Can we get a monkey to stand?


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## Smokeandsteam (Mar 16, 2021)

Starmer will be shitting himself: here’s the red wall Kieth....


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## chilango (Mar 16, 2021)

muscovyduck said:


> These people?



Yeah.

Not that I particularly support them or anything, but it would be interesting.


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## planetgeli (Mar 16, 2021)

Not a chance in hell of Labour holding that.


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## killer b (Mar 16, 2021)

planetgeli said:


> Not a chance in hell of Labour holding that.


it doesn't look great for them looking at the 2019 figures, but it really depends who's standing, and the forces in play are different to 2019 - presumably Farage's new lot (Reform?) will be up, which will suck up a lot of the BP vote, and there isn't the 'lend the tories a vote to push through Brexit' current - difficult to balance up atm.


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## Riklet (Mar 16, 2021)

I think labour have got 0 chance here, whoever stands.


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## PR1Berske (Mar 16, 2021)

Hartlepool election results 1997-2019


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## Smokeandsteam (Mar 16, 2021)

planetgeli said:


> Not a chance in hell of Labour holding that.



I suspect their priority will be holding their deposit


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## PR1Berske (Mar 16, 2021)

The "Northern Independence Party" claim they are standing in the by-election (Twitter source:  )

They're not (currently) registered with the Electoral Commission so can't use their name if they do stand: Search - The Electoral Commission


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## chilango (Mar 16, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> The "Northern Independence Party" claim they are standing in the by-election (Twitter source:  )
> 
> They're not (currently) registered with the Electoral Commission so can't use their name if they do stand: Search - The Electoral Commission




They were registering a few weeks back iirc.


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## gosub (Mar 16, 2021)

Riklet said:


> I think labour have got 0 chance here, whoever stands.



before or after the Labour candidate gets Lord Mandelson's endorsement?


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## PaulOK (Mar 16, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> There is to be a by-election held in Hartlepool following the resignation of Mike Hill. He had been subject to allegations of sexual impropriety.
> 
> Wikipedia page : 2021 Hartlepool by-election
> 
> ...



Labour will be praying a UKIP style party stands to split the right vote (I can't keep up with all the name changes. Are they still Brexit party or Reform now?). If the Tories run unchallenged by a Farage vehicle on that side then they have a shot at winning. This is key for Starmer. 
It will obviously attract all the joke weirdos and no hoper candidates too.


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## JimW (Mar 16, 2021)

PaulOK said:


> It will obviously attract all the joke weirdos and no hoper candidates too.


That's Labour short lists for you these days, I'm afraid.


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## The39thStep (Mar 16, 2021)

If you want an explanation about how Labour lost the working class, how a progressive working class voice has been abandoned and how the far right can get a toe hold then the North East is a good starting point imo.


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## Dom Traynor (Mar 16, 2021)

I know Hartlepool, the local  Labour party, and Mike very well. I'll be amazed if the Tories dont win as long as they don't pick a mad candidate which is possible in the Pool.


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## Knotted (Mar 17, 2021)

The state of the current national polling for Labour is bad but not disastrous and considering the Brexit issue is now dead and done, I think Labour are in with a good chance. 50/50.


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## chilango (Mar 17, 2021)

Presumably Lozza will put his money where his mouth is and give the good voters of Hartlepool a chance to cancel him into losing his deposit?


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## Smokeandsteam (Mar 17, 2021)

Dom Traynor said:


> I know Hartlepool, the local  Labour party, and Mike very well. I'll be amazed if the Tories dont win as long as they don't pick a mad candidate which is possible in the Pool.



Depends on whether Reform UK or whatever they are called run, and to what extent they can retain the support of BP voters from last time surely? One thing is already clear: Labour relying on a fringe anti EU party to hold a seat in the NE tells us everything we need to know about it’s ‘revival’ under Kieth


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## brogdale (Mar 17, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Depends on whether Reform UK or whatever they are called run, and to what extent they can retain the support of BP voters from last time surely? One thing is already clear: Labour relying on a fringe anti EU party to hold a seat in the NE tells us everything we need to know about it’s ‘revival’ under Kieth


I don't really see how RefUK can hold onto much of the BP vote at all, tbh. They don't have the brand recognition, leadership or core policy platform that attracted > 10k voters last time. Must be a strong chance that much of that former BP vote will go to the Tory candidate.


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## Dom Traynor (Mar 17, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Depends on whether Reform UK or whatever they are called run, and to what extent they can retain the support of BP voters from last time surely? One thing is already clear: Labour relying on a fringe anti EU party to hold a seat in the NE tells us everything we need to know about it’s ‘revival’ under Kieth


Yeah maybe I suspect they won't run unless they think they might actually win which I guess there is an outside chance of there if anywhere.


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## Smokeandsteam (Mar 17, 2021)

Surely if Tice and Co have got any ambition whatsoever then a by-election in a very strong leave seat (where the BP decisively split the leave vote in the GE) means they have to stand? Not to do indicates that their project is dead?


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## DownwardDog (Mar 17, 2021)

The Socialist Labour Party which is helmed by Scargill's lich have four local councillors so surely one of the SCABs will stand in the by-election.


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## brogdale (Mar 17, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Surely if Tice and Co have got any ambition whatsoever then a by-election in a very strong leave seat (where the BP decisively split the leave vote in the GE) means they have to stand? Not to do indicates that their project is dead?


Their project is dead, isn't it?


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## MickiQ (Mar 17, 2021)

I reckon it's 50/50 as well, now that Brexit is no longer the be-all and end-all of British Politics, voters who deserted Labour for the Tories and Brexit may well return. It's irrelevant in the context of national politics but its probably important to Starmer's power and prestige in the Labour Party that Labour hold the seat.


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## brogdale (Mar 17, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> I reckon it's 50/50 as well, now that Brexit is no longer the be-all and end-all of British Politics, voters who deserted Labour for the Tories and Brexit may well return. It's irrelevant in the context of national politics but its probably important to Starmer's power and prestige in the Labour Party that Labour hold the seat.


Hard to see what Starmer can offer to the punters of Hartlepool, tbh.


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## MickiQ (Mar 17, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Hard to see what Starmer can offer to the punters of Hartlepool, tbh.


Or Boris for that matter but someone has to win it


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## The39thStep (Mar 17, 2021)




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## brogdale (Mar 17, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> Or Boris for that matter but someone has to win it


He 'gave them back control of their...', defeated the rona, gave us the vaccine....


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## Smokeandsteam (Mar 17, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Their project is dead, isn't it?



I think so.


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## MickiQ (Mar 17, 2021)

brogdale said:


> He 'gave them back control of their...', defeated the rona, gave us the vaccine....


Good Point but what's he offering going forward and these areas are traditionally Labour no matter how much Brexit may have distorted things, on the other hand the Opposition seem to have been mostly invisible these past twelve months.
 if the Tories win then they will see it as validation of their current strategy but their position is unchallengeable anyway so the net result is nil. If Labour win then Starmer will see it as the same and still nothing will change.
If the Tories lose then it doesn't matter to them they don't need it and the net result is nil. If Labour lose then there will be soul searching but whether that involves doubling down on the current strategy or a change of direction is anyone's guess. Either way there will be a bit of a kerfuffle in the Labour Party.
This by-election is really only significant to the internal politics of the Labour Pary


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## steeplejack (Mar 17, 2021)

Will be very tight I think...1,500 votes either way. Failure would be really disastrous for Sur Kieth.



Dom Traynor said:


> I know Hartlepool, the local  Labour party, and Mike very well. I'll be amazed if the Tories dont win as long as they don't pick a mad candidate which is possible in the Pool.



Where is Gus Robinson these days?

A sensible local candidate from the Tories, with Labour looking like they'll be picking a Sebastian Flyte-type with little local roots and a poor position on Brexit as candidate then the stars are aligning nicely. A fulsome one page endorsement from "Lord" Mandelson would be the cherry on the cake for the Tories.

It would be a fool who bet on this. A very unpredictable and volatile electorate who are just as likely to elect someone from Scargill's party or an independent guy standing for the LOLz


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## killer b (Mar 17, 2021)

here's what the betting markets think anyway


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## killer b (Mar 17, 2021)

50/1 on the NIP mind, that's got to be worth a tenner of anyone's money


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## Monkeygrinder's Organ (Mar 17, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> If Labour lose then there will be soul searching but whether that involves doubling down on the current strategy or a change of direction is anyone's guess.



I don't think it's that hard a one to guess correctly tbh.


ETA: Although I'm kind of curious to see what doubling down on a strategy of abstaining on everything looks like. Abstain harder!


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## The39thStep (Mar 17, 2021)

killer b said:


> here's what the betting markets think anyway




The Teeside Gazette reports :



> Bookmaker Coral has made the Tories odds-on favourites to win the by-election at 1-2, with Labour at 13-8 to retain the seat that was once held by Lord Peter Mandelson, a former cabinet minister and one of the architects of New Labour.
> 
> 
> The bookies' spokesman John Hill said: "Labour have won every election in Hartlepool since this seat was first contested in 1974, however, our betting suggests the Conservatives could break that stronghold in this by-election in what would be a huge blow for Keir Starmer."


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## killer b (Mar 17, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> The Teeside Gazette reports :


Ladbrokes have them both on 10/11. 

I don't think the betting markets really mean anything fwiw, I just enjoyed seeing the NIP at 33% of the bets placed. I expect that's more to do with their enjoyable social media presence than any actual chance of them winning mind...


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## The39thStep (Mar 17, 2021)

NIP sending a shot across the bows at some posters on Urban


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## The39thStep (Mar 17, 2021)

killer b said:


> Ladbrokes have them both on 10/11.
> 
> I don't think the betting markets really mean anything fwiw, I just enjoyed seeing the NIP at 33% of the bets placed. I expect that's more to do with their enjoyable social media presence than any actual chance of them winning mind...


Yup. There's undoubtedly a sentiment worth tapping but social media in itself isn't going to be enough. Wonder if they'll finish above the Lib Dems?


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## MickiQ (Mar 17, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Yup. There's undoubtedly a sentiment worth tapping but social media in itself isn't going to be enough. Wonder if they'll finish above the Lib Dems?


The Independent and Socialist Labour (essentially comedy/protest candidates) got only 200 votes less than LibDems last time so it's not impossible but not really an achievement to brag about. Personally I would love to see NIP actually win the seat, Apart from the LOLs it would do more to light a fire under the political establishment than almost anything (bar SNP's inevitable triumph in Holyrood) but sadly that doesn't seem that likely.


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## Sasaferrato (Mar 17, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> I suspect their priority will be holding their deposit


You need 5% of the vote IIRC, surely even the current rudderless and hapless Labour Party can't sink that low?


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## Puddy_Tat (Mar 17, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> If Labour win then Starmer will see it as the same and still nothing will change.
> If the Tories lose then it doesn't matter to them they don't need it and the net result is nil. If Labour lose then there will be soul searching but whether that involves doubling down on the current strategy or a change of direction is anyone's guess. Either way there will be a bit of a kerfuffle in the Labour Party.
> This by-election is really only significant to the internal politics of the Labour Pary



As I have said before about the blairite wing of the labour party, if they win an election (or do well in an opinion poll) that (to them) proves they are doing the correct thing in moving the party more right wing.  if they lose an election (etc) that (to them) shows they haven't moved far enough right wing fast enough.

ugh


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## tim (Mar 17, 2021)

What about that monkey? He got elected as mayor three times in a row. Isn't it about time he made a comeback?


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## brogdale (Mar 17, 2021)

Something tells me that _Pasokification _will be a thing again after this by.


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## Dom Traynor (Mar 17, 2021)

You could call it Starmerfication now I guess.


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## Dom Traynor (Mar 17, 2021)

DownwardDog said:


> The Socialist Labour Party which is helmed by Scargill's lich have four local councillors so surely one of the SCABs will stand in the by-election.



Yes however they're an odd group indeed and there may well be skeletons in their closets and local loyalties that mean they won't have much impact and indeed won't campaign that hard.


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## moochedit (Mar 17, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I don't really see how RefUK can hold onto much of the BP vote at all, tbh. They don't have the brand recognition, leadership or core policy platform that attracted > 10k voters last time. Must be a strong chance that much of that former BP vote will go to the Tory candidate.



Farage just quit as refuk leader as well.


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## DJWrongspeed (Mar 17, 2021)

Knotted said:


> The state of the current national polling for Labour is bad but not disastrous and considering the *Brexit issue is now dead and done*, I think Labour are in with a good chance. 50/50.



Not sure about that at all. I've heard people talking about how Labour ignored the working class over Brexit even now. The Tories be will playing to that narrative I'm sure whether real or otherwise.


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## Leighsw2 (Mar 17, 2021)

Interesting.....


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## Leighsw2 (Mar 17, 2021)

A candidate who broke the whip six times to vote for a second referendum is going to be a very interesting prospect in a seat that voted 70% in favour of Brexit.


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## vanya (Mar 17, 2021)

Previewing the Hartlepool By-Election
					

Who doesn't like a parliamentary by-election, especially  as a record number of days have elapsed since the last one? But Hartlepool? This...




					averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com
				






> Who doesn't like a parliamentary by-election, _especially_ as a record number of days have elapsed since the last one? But Hartlepool? This will prove very interesting. A contest in a so-called red wall town is a perfect storm for all the obsessions driving the commentariat at the moment. Is another working class town going to fall to the Tories? Might Keir Starmer's Blue Labourism be vindicated on the North East's doorsteps? Might the ghost of Brexit past be laid to rest? And the government's Coronavirus record going to be affirmed, found wanting, or even treated as an issue?
> 
> Let's consider the scene. The bookies fancy the Tories' chances, and this is where the money is flowing. And superficially, their chances look good. Scanning the 2019 result, the combined Brexit Party and the Tory vote of 22,472 easily surpassed the 15,464 votes polled by Labour. As for the local borough council, its chamber is a bit of a curio. The authority is led by an Independent/Tory/Veterans' and People's Party(!?) alliance who are backed by another group of indies and, interestingly, the For Britain Movement. That's right, the Tories run the council thanks to a formal agreement they have with a fascist party. Therefore, a substantial anti-Labour vote does exist and, as we saw in Stoke, a canny use of local government can undermine support for incumbent Labour MPs. Indeed, while most of the country can look forward to big council tax rises, the Indy/Tory/Fash coalition in Hartlepool have frozen it. Lastly, the mayor of the Teesside combined authority is also a Tory and does not appear to have made any egregious missteps since his election in 2017, though looking after a regen budget _sans_ the messy and inglorious responsibilities of the lower tier of local government can make anyone look good.
> 
> ...


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## Puddy_Tat (Mar 17, 2021)

Leighsw2 said:


> A candidate who broke the whip six times to vote for a second referendum is going to be a very interesting prospect in a seat that voted 70% in favour of Brexit.



and if he loses, they will still try and blame corbyn...


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## The39thStep (Mar 17, 2021)

vanya said:


> Previewing the Hartlepool By-Election
> 
> 
> Who doesn't like a parliamentary by-election, especially  as a record number of days have elapsed since the last one? But Hartlepool? This...
> ...


It’s an interesting contribution however to describe Starmer as Blue Labour is very questionable.


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## Dom Traynor (Mar 17, 2021)

Puddy_Tat said:


> and if he loses, they will still try and blame corbyn...


Or potentially more damaging blame the local party and electorate


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## Puddy_Tat (Mar 17, 2021)

yes, that's labour's problem.  they need to elect a new electorate...


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## PR1Berske (Mar 17, 2021)

The continuity SDP has posted on socials their intention to stand a candidate


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## William of Walworth (Mar 18, 2021)

Puddy_Tat said:


> yes, that's labour's problem.  *they need to elect a new electorate*...



I have to confess that (irrespective of Labour), I've thought that in times gone by when the Tories were carrying all before them  -- back in the peak-Thatcher era I really mean ......


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## Rimbaud (Mar 18, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> The Independent and Socialist Labour (essentially comedy/protest candidates) got only 200 votes less than LibDems last time so it's not impossible but not really an achievement to brag about. Personally I would love to see NIP actually win the seat, Apart from the LOLs it would do more to light a fire under the political establishment than almost anything (bar SNP's inevitable triumph in Holyrood) but sadly that doesn't seem that likely.



There are two ways I could take comfort from the result of this by election.

First, Labour win, meaning the Tories have failed to take it and the Brexit issue has been insufficient for them to move in on what I see as my turf.

Second, if the Tories do win, it should only be because the NIP ate into enough of Labour's vote, which would put the frighteners up Westminster and complicate the Labour Right's strategy of wrapping themselves up in the Union Jack.

And if by some miracle the NIP win the seat that would be amazing. 

They won't in Hartlepool though. Could potentially see them winning a local seat in a younger ward in urban Newcastle in future, maybe South Heaton.


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## The39thStep (Mar 18, 2021)

Puddy_Tat said:


> yes, that's labour's problem.  they need to elect a new electorate...


Or impose one


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## Dom Traynor (Mar 18, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> It’s an interesting contribution however to describe Starmer as Blue Labour is very questionable.


He's no where near. Phil BC is often right and often wrong.


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## Smokeandsteam (Mar 18, 2021)

Puddy_Tat said:


> and if he loses, they will still try and blame corbyn...


But, in true remainer stylee, he’ll blame Brexit surely?


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## Dom Traynor (Mar 18, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> But, in true remainer stylee, he’ll blame Brexit surely?


Brexit is partly Corbyns fault though remember.


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## Knotted (Mar 18, 2021)

DJWrongspeed said:


> Not sure about that at all. I've heard people talking about how Labour ignored the working class over Brexit even now. The Tories be will playing to that narrative I'm sure whether real or otherwise.



Sure, but a lot of the people who just voted Tory to "get Brexit done" won't have a reason to vote for them any more even if they still won't vote Labour.


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## The39thStep (Mar 18, 2021)

Another two contestants :


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## The39thStep (Mar 18, 2021)

Wonder if For Britain will throw their hat in the ring they've got one councillor in Hartlepool


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## Dom Traynor (Mar 18, 2021)

Hartlepool seems ripe for the kind of sideshow that provides dozens of joke and nutter parties in to the ring and ends up with a boring victory be a narrow margin by either Tories or Labour.

By the way I'll be amazed if the NIP gets more than 500 votes.


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## steeplejack (Mar 18, 2021)

So far then we have (probably)

3 main parties

Northern Independence Party

North East Party (wtf)

SDP

Workers' Party of Britain

(maybe)

Socialist Labour?

Reform (the re-branded Brexit Party?)

could be looking at double digits in terms of candidates here. Lots of parties cancelling one another out in terms of the vote they are going for: WPB v SDP, NIP v NEP, Labour & Tory....


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## planetgeli (Mar 18, 2021)

If only the Judean People's Front and the People's Front of Judea could come to some sort of electoral deal...


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## steeplejack (Mar 18, 2021)

so looks like Labour are going for the Europhile buffoon who's been busily deleting his tweets.


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## PR1Berske (Mar 18, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Wonder if For Britain will throw their hat in the ring they've got one councillor in Hartlepool


There is also the Veterans and People's Party on the council there. Hartlepool is a funny place 😳


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## The39thStep (Mar 18, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> so looks like Labour are going for the Europhile buffoon who's been busily deleting his tweets.


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## PR1Berske (Mar 18, 2021)

The39thStep said:


>




Oh what a circus, oh what a show!


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## steeplejack (Mar 18, 2021)

The39thStep said:


>




Lots of abuse and mockery under that message about the deleted tweets and how hard he must have had to work to win a one-horse race.


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## The39thStep (Mar 18, 2021)

If only  there was a way of someway of  going back in life and starting all over again


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## The39thStep (Mar 18, 2021)

What led you to tweet this after your Saudi government funded trip?


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## strung out (Mar 18, 2021)

If the Tories win, Starmer will have taken Labour to their lowest number of MPs since 1935. Surely he'll have to go?


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## steeplejack (Mar 18, 2021)

The Tories I think need to pick someone local and not obviously a loon, and they'll win now I think. Astonishing, really.

The loon /oddball / minor party candidates will be squeezed relentlessly.

Sur Kieth's leadership will suddenly start being described as "embattled" and "beleaugured" in the event that Hartlepool is lost. If it happens then it will be another utterly self-inflicted wound.


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## andysays (Mar 18, 2021)

planetgeli said:


> If only the Judean's People's Front and the People's Front of Judea could come to some sort of electoral deal...


The Campaign for a Free Hartlepool and the North East Popular Front have both announced they won't be standing


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## killer b (Mar 18, 2021)

I guess this is one way of finding out whether brexit is still a motivating factor for voters.


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## PR1Berske (Mar 18, 2021)




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## The39thStep (Mar 18, 2021)




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## redsquirrel (Mar 18, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> What led you to tweet this after your Saudi government funded trip?


Jesus, this is seriously the best candidate they could find.

It's not even consistent with the (rubbish) stuff they've been trying to float over the last few months.


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## hitmouse (Mar 18, 2021)

redsquirrel said:


> Jesus, this is seriously the best candidate they could find.
> 
> It's not even consistent with the (rubbish) stuff they've been trying to float over the last few months.


"A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do. He may as well concern himself with his shadow on the wall. Speak what you think now in hard words, and to-morrow speak what to-morrow thinks in hard words again, though it contradict every thing you said to-day." - Kier Starmer, probably


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## PR1Berske (Mar 18, 2021)

By the by, in 2019 there was 41,037 votes cast with a turnout of 57.9%.


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## killer b (Mar 18, 2021)

The volatility of the vote in Hartlepool over the last 20 years has been wild. The Lib Dems have come closest to taking the seat from Labour, in 2004. They'll be lucky to keep their deposit this time.


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## PR1Berske (Mar 18, 2021)




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## PR1Berske (Mar 19, 2021)




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## PR1Berske (Mar 19, 2021)




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## The39thStep (Mar 19, 2021)

killer b said:


> I guess this is one way of finding out whether brexit is still a motivating factor for voters.


Funnily enough, Matthew Goodwin touched on this on Twitter his view was that things may have moved on and that there were new issues that may be pertinent like levelling up in the North. Now in his apparent position as Tory adviser without office that may be seen as advocating the line, the Tory candidate should take however it could also be an attack line for Labour? Labour have already started the 'vaccine bounce' defence ahead of this and the May elections.


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## Knotted (Mar 19, 2021)

The vaccine bounce thing is actually pretty hard to detect in the polls - there's more evidence of Labour's vote dropping than there is of the Tory's vote rising. But more than anything, it smacks of Labour complacency. OK so the government have this "vaccine bounce", what are you doing about it? And this whole business of starting a selection row and choosing a terrible candidate makes me think Labour just aren't bothered.


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## killer b (Mar 19, 2021)

Knotted said:


> The vaccine bounce thing is actually pretty hard to detect in the polls - there's more evidence of Labour's vote dropping than there is of the Tory's vote rising.


that's not really true.


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## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

killer b said:


> that's not really true.
> 
> View attachment 259318


I think that's right, but there can, of course, be some other variables in action like...the more that folk see of Starmer, they less they feel inclined to express support for the party that he leads.


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## killer b (Mar 19, 2021)

sure it's not necessarily a vaccine bounce we're seeing, but support for the tories has visibly risen over the last little while.


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## Knotted (Mar 19, 2021)

Alright fair enough.


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## Serge Forward (Mar 19, 2021)

It's banana skin after banana skin, due to their tunnel vision focus on de-Corbynisation, saying nothing of substance and playing the willing junior partner in a national unity government.  More fuck ups to follow.


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## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

I'm genuinely intrigued about what party loyal activists might say to any punters on the doorstep when they campaign in Hartlepool.

_Good evening, I'm calling on behalf of the Labour Party candidate and think you should vote for him because....?_


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## muscovyduck (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I'm genuinely intrigued about what party loyal activists might say to any punters on the doorstep when they campaign in Hartlepool.
> 
> _Good evening, I'm calling on behalf of the Labour Party candidate and think you should vote for him because....?_


Probably focus on getting people to vote for the Labour Party than for the specific candidate because that's not the smartest thing to do but definitely the sort of half arsed strategy the people who are going along with all this are going to employ


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## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

muscovyduck said:


> Probably focus on getting people to vote for the Labour Party than for the specific candidate because that's not the smartest thing to do but definitely the sort of half arsed strategy the people who are going along with all this are going to employ


That's problem, isn't it? What on earth does the Starmer-led party stand for?


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## ska invita (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I'm genuinely intrigued about what party loyal activists might say to any punters on the doorstep when they campaign in Hartlepool.
> 
> _Good evening, I'm calling on behalf of the Labour Party candidate and think you should vote for him because....?_


hes a doctor and nhs and covid


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## Pickman's model (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I'm genuinely intrigued about what party loyal activists might say to any punters on the doorstep when they campaign in Hartlepool.
> 
> _Good evening, I'm calling on behalf of the Labour Party candidate and think you should vote for him because....?_


He'll cry if you don't


----------



## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

ska invita said:


> hes a doctor and nhs and covid


Be quite amusing if the tories come up with a doctor candidate!


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Be quite amusing if the tories come up with a doctor candidate!


they'd stand a British mengele


----------



## cantsin (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I'm genuinely intrigued about what party loyal activists might say to any punters on the doorstep when they campaign in Hartlepool.
> 
> _Good evening, I'm calling on behalf of the Labour Party candidate and think you should vote for him because....?_



there's f*ck all to say, and whilst I wldnt admit to most in my CLP , quietly cldnt give an arse if  that clown loses up there


----------



## MickiQ (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I'm genuinely intrigued about what party loyal activists might say to any punters on the doorstep when they campaign in Hartlepool.
> 
> _Good evening, I'm calling on behalf of the Labour Party candidate and think you should vote for him because....?_


We're shit but it's either us or Boris


----------



## kebabking (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> That's problem, isn't it? What on earth does the Starmer-led party stand for?



I _think _i know what he stands for - economically somewhere between Brown and Corbyn, is both socially liberal and socially conservative, less warry than Blair, but more warry than Corbyn - and I think I'm in his target audience (middle class, and 'sensible'), but firstly there are some really big gaps to steer a ship through, and lots of people to offend while doing so, and secondly that the LP is so wide in terms of its church that's it's simply not plausible to have everyone singing from the same hymn book, let alone sheet.

The other problem he's got - ref Hartlepool candidate - is that if this twonk is the best candidate within 50 miles of Hartlepool that it says little for the talent pool in the LP, or perhaps worse, this twonk is what a good candidate looks like to Starmer.


----------



## Serge Forward (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I'm genuinely intrigued about what party loyal activists might say to any punters on the doorstep when they campaign in Hartlepool.
> 
> _Good evening, I'm calling on behalf of the Labour Party candidate and think you should vote for him because....?_


_... he's not a Tory
Oh, yes he is.
Oh no he's not.
Etc._


----------



## DotCommunist (Mar 19, 2021)

Not just a remain ultra but a full on PV guy. Almost certainly has a subscription to the New European.


----------



## andysays (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> That's problem, isn't it? What on earth does the Starmer-led party stand for?


Free Union Jack underpants for all...


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> That's problem, isn't it? What on earth does the Starmer-led party stand for?


Whatever Boris Johnson says


----------



## William of Walworth (Mar 19, 2021)

kebabking said:


> The other problem he's got - ref Hartlepool candidate - *is that if this twonk is the best candidate within 50 miles of Hartlepool that it says little for the talent pool in the LP*, or perhaps worse, this twonk is what a good candidate looks like to Starmer.



This idiot standing says nothing about lack of better-candidate availability 

It does say a lot about the stitch-up level though, given that there's _surely_ got to be a sound or at least fairly together, not all that Remainey  LP candidate living in Hartlepool itself .....

Starmer became leader on a 'competence' ticket


----------



## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> This idiot standing says nothing about lack of better-candidate availability
> 
> It does say a lot about the stitch-up level though, given that there's _surely_ got to be a sound or at least competent LP candidate living in Hartlepool itself .....
> 
> Starmer became leader on a 'competence' ticket


It's quite excellent prefigurative politics for Starmer's  New, New Labour; top-down, authoritarian imposition with no regard to democracy, rights or whatever.


----------



## kebabking (Mar 19, 2021)

I'm kebabking,and I enjoyed this tweet...


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 19, 2021)

ska invita said:


> hes a doctor and nhs and covid


has some appeal tbh  but is that enough to get him over the door step?


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 19, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> has some appeal tbh  but is that enough to get him over the door step?


not during a lockdown


----------



## killer b (Mar 19, 2021)

kebabking said:


> I'm kebabking,and I enjoyed this tweet...



this is brilliant.


----------



## littlebabyjesus (Mar 19, 2021)

ok so I now know what 'MILF' means. 

I admit I wasn't expecting that when I googled it. How is that even a thing?


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 19, 2021)

ska invita said:


> hes a doctor and nhs and covid


----------



## DownwardDog (Mar 19, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> This idiot standing says nothing about lack of better-candidate availability
> 
> It does say a lot about the stitch-up level though, given that there's _surely_ got to be a sound or at least fairly together, not all that Remainey  LP candidate living in Hartlepool itself .....
> 
> Starmer became leader on a 'competence' ticket



There's almost nothing left of the local LP. The Brownites were purged during Corbyn's Corduroy Revolution and four Labour councillors, including the former council leader, jumped ship to join Scargill's Socialist Meme Party.


----------



## hitmouse (Mar 19, 2021)

DotCommunist said:


> Not just a remain ultra but a full on PV guy. Almost certainly has a subscription to the New European.


First read that as being a full-on powerviolence guy. Almost certainly has an extensive collection of split EPs that came out on Slap-A-Ham.


----------



## killer b (Mar 19, 2021)

Looks more like a Stereophonics kind of dude to me.


----------



## ska invita (Mar 19, 2021)

The39thStep said:


>



live footage from the stump


----------



## strung out (Mar 19, 2021)

littlebabyjesus said:


> ok so I now know what 'MILF' means.
> 
> I admit I wasn't expecting that when I googled it. How is that even a thing?


I'm surprised that anyone in this day and age doesn't know what a MILF is to be honest.


----------



## andysays (Mar 19, 2021)

strung out said:


> I'm surprised that anyone in this day and age doesn't know what a MILF is to be honest.


Yeah, it's like claiming you've never come across 'frothy coffee'


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 19, 2021)

The NIP may struggle to garner a vote of more than 6-700 but their twitter game is strong, fair play.

This by-election has already been rich in entertainment and I'm afraid the Labour candidate looks as disastrous a choice as Bobby Gillespie's father was in Govan in 1988 (genuinely one of the worst candidates I've ever seen, the poor fellow simply wasn't up to it and lost nearly 30% of a rock solid Labour vote in three weeks, with the SNPs Jim Sillars the victor).

This Williams' candidature already has that air of _"from the start nothing went right for Labour"_ about it. Interedsting points made by folk about how dysfunctional the local CLP is and how pisspoor the "talent" available to the party.


----------



## killer b (Mar 19, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> The NIP may struggle to garner a vote of more than 6-700 but their twitter game is strong, fair play.


I think they're going to do well. Not winning well, but more than a few hundred votes. They've got a lot of energy and ideas and a fair wind behind them, and a strong twitter game can be leveraged these days to create an impact way beyond twitter itself.


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 19, 2021)

We’ll see. I just think the minor party / loon candidates will struggle to cut through and will be squeezed heftily. Can see the Liberals losing their deposit.

To be clear I see NIP as a minor party rather than a loon groupuscule like Galloway’s chancers.


----------



## killer b (Mar 19, 2021)

Maybe, I dunno - I'm not sure the big parties will be able to squeeze this too hard, it's not a high stakes election. No-one can look at the current westminster maths and think this is really a crucial by-election for either party - whatever happens, the Tories will still have a large majority, and Labour will still be in the shit. The people of Hartlepool will feel free to not bother voting at all (most of them) or vote for whichever party they like the look of. For many of them that'll still be Labour or the Tories, but I'm expecting to see action elsewhere - and it's not clear to me that any of the other parties have much to excite people.


----------



## Knotted (Mar 19, 2021)

It's an ideal time for a protest vote really.


----------



## MickiQ (Mar 19, 2021)

killer b said:


> I think they're going to do well. Not winning well, but more than a few hundred votes. They've got a lot of energy and ideas and a fair wind behind them, and a strong twitter game can be leveraged these days to create an impact way beyond twitter itself.


A vote for either Labour or the Tories is a effectively a wasted vote since it doesn't matter which one wins nothing will change so that may tempt folks to be adventurous for their votes. Historically this used to be the LibDems big moment but they still haven't been forgiven for the Coalition.
I don't live in Hartlepool but if I did I would definitely put my cross next to NIP for the LOL's if nothing else.


----------



## kebabking (Mar 19, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> The NIP may struggle to garner a vote of more than 6-700 but their twitter game is strong, fair play.
> 
> This by-election has already been rich in entertainment and I'm afraid the Labour candidate looks as disastrous a choice as Bobby Gillespie's father was in Govan in 1988 (genuinely one of the worst candidates I've ever seen, the poor fellow simply wasn't up to it and lost nearly 30% of a rock solid Labour vote in three weeks, with the SNPs Jim Sillars the victor).
> 
> This Williams' candidature already has that air of _"from the start nothing went right for Labour"_ about it. Interedsting points made by folk about how dysfunctional the local CLP is and how pisspoor the "talent" available to the party.



Having been involved in a couple of CLP candidate selection processes (and I know this one was a stitch-up/parachute job), I remain in prostrated awe at the LP's ability take a line up of a dozen potentials including 6 or 7 really bright, accomplished, politically able, local candidates and almost without exception pick an absolute drooling fucknuckle with the social skills of a syphallitic goat and the look of a sex offender.


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 19, 2021)

Actually an unexpectedly high NIP vote would be hilarious and I'd also be tempted to vote for them if I lived in the town. Hartlepool does have a history of volatility. However it's not clear what resources they have on the ground or even how campaigning will be possible, meaningfully, during pandemic restrictions. Maybe that will play in their favour. Were I the Labour agent I'd be tempted to lock Williams in an electricity cupboard for the duration and nuke any internet activity from the last decade from outer space.

anyway that's enough white noise from me on this for the afternoon


----------



## Wilf (Mar 19, 2021)

Shouldn't have been difficult for Labour to find a leave voting candidate without a history of free gift tweets.... _but no_. 

Statement of the obvious but this is exactly the kind of seat where you should be able to see some kind of reconnection with working class voters and an increased Labour majority.  There won't be and the Tories could easily win it.  Trouble is, even if Labour lose and Sir Keith departed (he won't), there would still be no ready made strategy in place to get that reconnection. Labour really are fucked, there's no set of forces or actors in the party who can transform it into what it needs to be.


----------



## killer b (Mar 19, 2021)

Wilf said:


> Shouldn't have been difficult for Labour to find a leave voting candidate


I don't think a leave-voting candidate was necessary, just perhaps someone without a track record for ardent remainerism that was still banging the drum a year and a half ago.


----------



## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

I know it's a Guardian article (& therefore a bit like looking at funny people in far away places)...but this piece does contain some interesting, local reflections on the electorally positive impact (for the Tories) of their Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen:



> “At one point Labour could’ve sent Donald Duck and he would’ve got in here but not now,” said Diane Stephens, a lifelong Labour voter and manager of the Heugh Battery Museum. *The “phenomenal” success of the region’s young Conservative mayor, Ben Houchen*, coupled with the implosion of Hartlepool’s Labour party, has left Stephens considering voting Tory for the first time. “Perish the thought,” she said in mock outrage. “My father would turn in his grave. I honestly don’t know.”



&



> Even diehard Labour members praise Houchen, the Tees Valley mayor, for bringing tidal waves of cash to an area in desperate need of reinvention. Houchen’s freeport initiative, backed by the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, led him to declare this month’s budget as “the day Teesside, Darlington and Hartlepool was reborn as an industrial powerhouse”.
> 
> Tribal loyalties have become less clearcut. “I’m not a Tory and I never will be; however, he’s just brought this freeport. The good that that is going to do to my little town – it’s fabulous,” said Paddy Brown, who resigned as leader of the local Labour group only three months ago, over what he described as the “toxicity” of the party.
> 
> “I would not be allowed to say that if I was in the Labour party. Tory or not, well done,” he said, *adding that the Conservatives would “walk home” if Houchen contested the byelection*. “If we’re being honest, if the Brexit party hadn’t have stood last time we’d have a Tory MP by now,” he added.


----------



## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

From the same article, (above); this gem...about the RefUKers


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I know it's a Guardian article (& therefore a bit like looking at funny people in far away places)...but this piece does contain some interesting, local reflections on the electorally positive impact (for the Tories) of their Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen:
> 
> 
> 
> &


I posted on this on the freeport thread but dint get any significant response. This is why, I assume is  Matt Goodwin is floating the 'Brexit may be in the past, emerging new issues are levelling up in the North' line


----------



## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> I posted on this on the freeport thread but dint get any significant response. This is why, I assume is  Matt Goodwin is floating the 'Brexit may be in the past, emerging new issues are levelling up in the North' line


Yeah, this from the former Leader of the Labour Group kind of says it all, really...



> “If we’re being honest, if the Brexit party hadn’t have stood last time we’d have a Tory MP by now.”


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 19, 2021)

I'm a bit of a by-election nerd. Most of the time, even in safe seats, and with very very rare exceptions, every by-election tells a story. They are always gems of history and politics, real life and real-time opinion polls, with some of them being of genuine national importance. 

For various reasons, Westminster by-elections have become increasingly rare. There has been 600 days (give or take) since the most recent one and that will grow between now and the Hartlepool by-election. They're simply not the snapshot in time they used to be. In some ways, activists are missing out on how to do "door to door" politics by the rapidly developing scarcity.


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 19, 2021)

once again the labour party's abject lack of politics is going to see them thrashed. what is so excellent about their candidate that it's so important to return him to the commons? as far as i know jim murphy's no longer allowed anywhere near the (scottish) labour party, and he at least had a modicum of ability in comparison to the nefandous candidate labour have foisted on hartlepool


----------



## Knotted (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> From the same article, (above); this gem...about the RefUKers
> 
> View attachment 259378



Surely even if they're fielding a ridiculous remainiac, Labour shouldn't be afraid of losing more votes to Refuk than the Tories will.


----------



## Rimbaud (Mar 19, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> I'm a bit of a by-election nerd. Most of the time, even in safe seats, and with very very rare exceptions, every by-election tells a story. They are always gems of history and politics, real life and real-time opinion polls, with some of them being of genuine national importance.
> 
> For various reasons, Westminster by-elections have become increasingly rare. There has been 600 days (give or take) since the most recent one and that will grow between now and the Hartlepool by-election. They're simply not the snapshot in time they used to be. In some ways, activists are missing out on how to do "door to door" politics by the rapidly developing scarcity.



May be wishful thinking on my part, but the Corbyn era army of door to door activists almost won them the 2017 election against the odds.

The NIP are basically all ex-Momentum activists and they aren't clueless when it comes to canvassing. 

The pandemic makes it harder, but there's a good month and a half to go until the by-election and I know there are a lot of very capable and experienced Momentum-veteran activists in the North East. 

It seems to me that their social media strategy is aimed at getting sufficient numbers of these on board to take a good ground game to Hartlepool. 

If this plan works, they might do quite well. I certainly don't see them winning though, but then Hartlepool has form for humourous protest votes so... Stranger things have happened.


----------



## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

Going well, so far for NooNooLab...

**


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 19, 2021)

"Reform UK should...win the by-election in Hartlepool and let's wait and see. And to answer your question Ian I am actively considering whether I should stand or er whether our other some of our other er....Reform UK erm....er....er.....erm....supporters or people should stand so that's under consideration at the moment. So let's wait and see."


----------



## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

Feeling so sorry for the good folk of Hartlepool...they're gonna have such a shower of cunts schlepping around their areas over the next few months.


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Feeling so sorry for the good folk of Hartlepool...they're gonna have such a shower of cunts schlepping around their areas over the next few months.


Hang the candidates and let the monkeys go free


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 19, 2021)




----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 19, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


>



The plant would make a better leader than starmer


----------



## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> The plant would make a better leader than starmer


Limp, fucked, dehydrated and dying though it is...more backbone than the cop.


----------



## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

Who's the other bloke with the dead eyes?


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Who's the other bloke with the dead eyes?



Anas Sarwar, "leader" of "Scottish" Labour


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Limp, fucked, dehydrated and dying though it is...more backbone than the cop.


Give it a drop of bilberry wine and it'd soon perk up


----------



## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Anas Sarwar, "leader" of "Scottish" Labour


Oh, right. 
Perhaps I need to keep up?


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Oh, right.
> Perhaps I need to keep up?



"....said leader of the Labour Party Keir Starmer."


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Oh, right.
> Perhaps I need to keep up?



I'm sure your life was complete enough without knowing which shopfront dummy is charged with presiding over the managed decline of centrist/ soft right British Nationalism north of the border


----------



## brogdale (Mar 19, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> I'm sure your life was complete enough without knowing which shopfront dummy is charged with presiding over the managed decline of centrist/ soft right British Nationalism north of the border


I suppose it amounts to taking an interest in LibDem 'leadership' in England?


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I suppose it amounts to taking an interest in LibDem 'leadership' in England?



Yes that chump Sarwar and "Sir" Ed Davey have about the same level of brand recognition, i.e. none outside their own living rooms


----------



## kebabking (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Oh, right.
> Perhaps I need to keep up?



Sarwar isn't even a household name in his own household.

Iirc -which I may not because I'm old and I lose interest - his old man was a labour MP in Glasgow, in the 'community leader/corrupt as fuck' mould.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 19, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Yes that chump Sarwar and "Sir" Ed Davey have about the same level of brand recognition, i.e. none outside their own living rooms


A void within a lacuna within a suit. But _really_ sensible.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 19, 2021)

Labour has become see through, it casts no shadow. It's being help upright by the first past the post system, which means it'll still get a few million votes in the next election. But those who voted for it won't really have any memory of the event, just a vague feeling of going blank before returning to the world that boris johnson made.


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 19, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Anas Sarwar, "leader" of "Scottish" Labour


At first glance he does look like the first boot from The Apprentice, the one who came up with the team name "Power Move" and then found that a middling degree from a ho-hum redbrick did nothing when faced with a task to sell tinned fruit from outside an Overground station.


----------



## chilango (Mar 19, 2021)

Mutterings on Twitter about ex-Labour MP Thelma Walker standing for the NIP.


----------



## killer b (Mar 19, 2021)

chilango said:


> Mutterings on Twitter about ex-Labour MP Thelma Walker standing for the NIP.


I did wonder this when I saw her being very complimentary to the NIP this afternoon.


----------



## Rimbaud (Mar 19, 2021)

chilango said:


> Mutterings on Twitter about ex-Labour MP Thelma Walker standing for the NIP.



She's met with them and publicly tweeted her support for them and about how impressed she is with them. So she is surely considering it...


----------



## lazythursday (Mar 19, 2021)

I had dismissed this as unlikely but then notice that she does have a local connection - worked as a teacher in Stockton on Tees for twelve years. Some time ago though.


----------



## kebabking (Mar 19, 2021)

chilango said:


> Mutterings on Twitter about ex-Labour MP Thelma Walker standing for the NIP.



Her twitter feed is full of retweets of their stuff, and apparently she 'had a great conversation with them, blah blah...'. 

No idea if that's solid money, but there's certainly a bit of a love-in going on...


----------



## chilango (Mar 19, 2021)

Yeah, nothing concrete, but it seems like it's being mutually considered.


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 19, 2021)

chilango said:


> Mutterings on Twitter about ex-Labour MP Thelma Walker standing for the NIP.


----------



## tim (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Feeling so sorry for the good folk of Hartlepool...they're gonna have such a shower of cunts schlepping around their areas over the next few months.


They've been through it all before and survived.


----------



## Dom Traynor (Mar 19, 2021)

Walker is a diehard remainer but probably not stupid. 

Even with someone like her (and having been a teacher in Stockton is not a local connection, Hartlepool is very parochial) I just can't see how a party like NIP can leverage a "good twitter game" into anything meaningful for this. I actually think they will damage themselves in this by getting such an abysmal vote it will demotivate their young and inexperienced support. 

Stockton South or Redcar would be much more fertile ground for them. There's a core of current and former Labour people there who might be tempted.


----------



## tim (Mar 19, 2021)

kebabking said:


> Sarwar isn't even a household name in his own household.
> 
> Iirc -which I may not because I'm old and I lose interest - his old man was a labour MP in Glasgow, in the 'community leader/corrupt as fuck' mould.


Papa is now Governor of the Punjab.


----------



## killer b (Mar 19, 2021)

Dom Traynor said:


> Walker is a diehard remainer but probably not stupid.
> 
> Even with someone like her (and having been a teacher in Stockton is not a local connection, Hartlepool is very parochial) I just can't see how a party like NIP can leverage a "good twitter game" into anything meaningful for this. I actually think they will damage themselves in this by getting such an abysmal vote it will demotivate their young and inexperienced support.


It might all go wrong, but they don't really have any choice but to give it their best crack though do they?


----------



## Dom Traynor (Mar 19, 2021)

killer b said:


> It might all go wrong, but they don't really have any choice but to give it their best crack though do they?



I think they have a choice to say they have only just emerged and the time and location are not right, that it takes time to build a party / movement there are no short cuts but a good social media game compliments the hard ground work.


----------



## mauvais (Mar 19, 2021)

I think now is probably pretty much the best time and the location's not that bad either.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 19, 2021)

Dom Traynor said:


> Walker is a diehard remainer but probably not stupid.
> 
> Even with someone like her (and having been a teacher in Stockton is not a local connection, Hartlepool is very parochial) I just can't see how a party like NIP can leverage a "good twitter game" into anything meaningful for this. I actually think they will damage themselves in this by getting such an abysmal vote it will demotivate their young and inexperienced support.
> 
> Stockton South or Redcar would be much more fertile ground for them. There's a core of current and former Labour people there who might be tempted.


Perhaps the thinking is that it’s been over  a year since a by election therefore it will get lots of media coverage . They’ll get a mention on national news when anyone reads the candidate out and they’ve got a reasonable social media presence . I get your point that there may be better recruiting grounds in the region , they’ve also got an issue that they are competing with several others for the discontented/ populist vote not least some other fairly local group . I can’t see a punt doing them any harm in terms of recruitment , profile , perhaps finance unless they get a totally derisory vote . They’ve got to make an electoral intervention at some stage . It’s what happens after that is important ie aside from social media how do they organise supporters on the ground especially W/class supporters and build something  them . A left populist movement would be great .


----------



## killer b (Mar 19, 2021)

Dom Traynor said:


> I think they have a choice to say they have only just emerged and the time and location are not right, that it takes time to build a party / movement there are no short cuts but a good social media game compliments the hard ground work.


I think the idea that a recently formed northern separatist party wouldn't run in a rare low-stakes election in a northern town which recently elected a man in a monkey suit to office in another low-stakes election is a bit far fetched tbh. It gives them the opportunity to grow their profile considerably, and it might even - if everything falls into place - see them win.


----------



## Dom Traynor (Mar 19, 2021)

Look I'd love to see them do well and if I was still living in the North of England I would be donating money and might even have joined. But I just cant see how they're going to cut through especially in Hartlepool and especially under COVID. I used to know the constituency quite well, and yeah randos and jokers could cause an upset but at the moment it's much more likely to be apolitical or localist types... I mean only a fool makes cast iron political predictions at the moment, but it feels like a massive gamble. And I would argue anything less than 600 votes for NIP will be demotivating.


----------



## tim (Mar 19, 2021)

killer b said:


> I think the idea that a recently formed northern separatist party wouldn't run in a rare low-stakes election in a northern town which recently elected a man in a monkey suit to office in another low-stakes election is a bit far fetched tbh. It gives them the opportunity to grow their profile considerably, and it might even - if everything falls into place - see them win.



Galloway managed it in Bradford, despite his established track record of parliamentary indolence.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 19, 2021)

tim said:


> Galloway managed it in Bradford, despite his established track record of parliamentary indolence.


True but how did Galloway do that ?


----------



## DownwardDog (Mar 19, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Going well, so far for NooNooLab...
> 
> *View attachment 259389*



Saudi Arabia's human rights record is not a topic of electoral salience in West View.


----------



## killer b (Mar 19, 2021)

The conditions that saw Galloway win in Bradford don't exist here tbf, I'm not sure there's any lessons you could take from that


----------



## mauvais (Mar 19, 2021)

Dom Traynor said:


> Look I'd love to see them do well and if I was still living in the North of England I would be donating money and might even have joined. But I just cant see how they're going to cut through especially in Hartlepool and especially under COVID. I used to know the constituency quite well, and yeah randos and jokers could cause an upset but at the moment it's much more likely to be apolitical or localist types... I mean only a fool makes cast iron political predictions at the moment, but it feels like a massive gamble. And I would argue anything less than 600 votes for NIP will be demotivating.


Your demotivation point is a fair one but there are lots of other factors. Labour are the weakest and most hapless they have been in a long time and a byelection focuses the vote on the local rather than the national, if only because there is no national-level propaganda. Who knows what anyone really thinks of the Tories in this shithole country nowadays but it at least ought not to be good. If NIP fails in this gambit then they will surely continue as a shitposting online entity anyway, only mildly discredited by the failed interaction with a discredited system. If Scotland gets independence then NIP or something a lot like it will get an automatic second go anyway. So why not try it?


----------



## Rimbaud (Mar 19, 2021)

mauvais said:


> Your demotivation point is a fair one but there are lots of other factors. Labour are the weakest and most hapless they have been in a long time and a byelection focuses the vote on the local rather than the national, if only because there is no national-level propaganda. Who knows what anyone really thinks of the Tories in this shithole country nowadays but it at least ought not to be good. If NIP fails in this gambit then they will surely continue as a shitposting online entity anyway, only mildly discredited by the failed interaction with a discredited system. If Scotland gets independence then NIP or something a lot like it will get an automatic second go anyway. So why not try it?



The NIP are here to stay I reckon.

The social democratic tradition in the North runs strong, and the increasing centrality of London and the South East and the decline of the North since Thatcher has only strengthed Northern identity as something seperate from a ludicrously insular political and media elite who all know each other and treat all beyond the home counties as a foreign land.

Labour's failure to absorb the hundreds of thousands of pro-Corbyn members - who, like me, were yearning for the perhaps mythical Labour of their parent's and grandparent's generation to return and reverse what Thatcher did - is the end of them as a party. Momentum were a manifestation of deep political traditions of the North trying to return energy and meaning to a moribund and bureaucratic New Labour.

That energy has to go somewhere, and the LP bureaucracy has made it quite clear it isn't welcome in Labour. Where it goes remains to be seen, but in the post Corbyn era NIP look like the most likely successors to me.


----------



## William of Walworth (Mar 19, 2021)

Rimbaud said:


> The NIP are here to stay I reckon.
> 
> The social democratic tradition in the North runs strong, and the increasing centrality of London and the South East and the decline of the North since Thatcher has only strengthed Northern identity as something seperate from a ludicrously insular political and media elite who all know each other and treat all beyond the home counties as a foreign land.
> 
> ...



That all makes a lot of sense

But the idea of people in Hartlepool, or anywhere, possibly voting a *Tory!!* to Westminster out of 'protest', still thoroughly disgusts me   

Lots of talk about Labour in this thread, and quite rightly, given how responsible they are for the Tories maybe getting in now.

But the fucking godawful *Tories*? </runs away .....  >


----------



## not-bono-ever (Mar 20, 2021)

A vox pop of people I know / knew up north whatevs suggests that their Labour are more interested in eg Palestinian issues than British ones. Doesn’t matter that it’s the fulfilment of a prolonged PR campaign by the forces of evil, it’s considered a stone cold Steve Austin fact.


----------



## Wilf (Mar 20, 2021)

Rimbaud said:


> The NIP are here to stay I reckon.
> 
> The social democratic tradition in the North runs strong, and the increasing centrality of London and the South East and the decline of the North since Thatcher has only strengthed Northern identity as something seperate from a ludicrously insular political and media elite who all know each other and treat all beyond the home counties as a foreign land.
> 
> ...


TBH, I'd have Momentum as well up the list of least influential party groupings ever. This has them with 35,000 members in 2018 - and the dominant voice in something like a 350,000 rise in Labour membership:
Momentum surges past 35,000 members with ‘more than 1,000 members joining every month’ | The Independent | The Independent 
Didn't manage to reverse Labour's disconnection with working class communities and didn't even get a grip on the party itself.


----------



## Rimbaud (Mar 20, 2021)

Wilf said:


> TBH, I'd have Momentum as well up the list of least influential party groupings ever. This has them with 35,000 members in 2018 - and the dominant voice in something like a 350,000 rise in Labour membership:
> Momentum surges past 35,000 members with ‘more than 1,000 members joining every month’ | The Independent | The Independent
> Didn't manage to reverse Labour's disconnection with working class communities and didn't even get a grip on the party itself.



I'm using Momentum as shorthand for Corbyn supporters. I joined the Labour Party for Corbyn but never formally joined Momentum. Labour membership swelled dramatically during that time, and it has now shrunk just as dramatically under Starmer.

They didn't reverse the disconnection, but as you say they failed to really get a grip on the party itself. And that's my point - the LP has proved that it cannot be redeemed, and so it is no longer a viable political party. As soon as a credible left alternative emerges, Labour is doomed. See - SNP in Scotland.

New Labour's political gambit was that they didn't need to worry about the working class or the left as they had nowhere to go, so they should focus on the middle class and homeowners. By 2010 this was already wearing thin as appealing to homeowners ignored the rising numbers of younger people priced out of home ownership, and at the same time the foundation of community loyalty to Labour was naturally withering with the decline of organised Labour.

The Corbyn project was an alliance of Old Labour (Corbyn, McDonnell et al) and the children of traditional Labour voters to ressurect the old party. It failed, but it also kept the moribund Labour Party alive longer than its natural lifespan. The Corbynista activism and vote wouldn't have gone to Labour otherwise, it would have found/created a new outlet and Labour would have gone the way of the French Socialist Party or PASOK by now.

By stamping out Corbynism, the Labour Party have signed their own death warrant.

There is a huge class issue which overlaps a great deal with age, and that is property ownership vs tenancy. Corbyn got the youth vote because he actually acknowledged that tenants exist and tried to address their interests, which to me was exhilarating as in alI my life I had never seen a politician do that before. Tbh I think this was the primary driver behind his support. With trade unionism insignificant among the younger generation, the only material way for Labour to generate loyalty among a new generation was to be a voice of the growing tenant class. By doing this, Corbyn breathed new life into Labour.

However, the PLP throttled this new life as soon as they got the chance and rushed to  return to a policy of sucking up to the propertied and pretending tenants don't exist. In doing so, Starmer's Labour has removed any possibility for Labour to survive by terminating the foundation of youth support, and residual support out of tradition which they have been coasting on since the 90s is fading with time.

There is no longer any basis for voting Labour, but social democratic (in a broad sense) ideas remain strong and it is only a matter of time before someone pulls the rug out from under Labour. NIP could be the ones to do it.

And yes, those of you who were saying the Labour Party is a waste of time were correct. But it was still worth a try, and it didn't feel like there was any tangible alternative being offered that I could contribute to or get involved in.


----------



## tim (Mar 20, 2021)

Are those just random pins on the board behind him or are they an acronym as is being suggested on twitter?


I'm convinced, but gullible.


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 21, 2021)




----------



## Knotted (Mar 21, 2021)

Starmer looks shifty and uncomfortable there. But to be fair he always does.


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 21, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


>



When she says no more parachutes I think she's going to impose a dead candidate


----------



## Dom Traynor (Mar 21, 2021)

It's hardly Lisa's fault. It is Keith's though.


----------



## two sheds (Mar 21, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> When she says no more parachutes I think she's going to impose a dead candidate


And what about floating voters????


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 22, 2021)

two sheds said:


> And what about floating voters????


Are they face up or face down?


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 22, 2021)

The wheezing party machine is wheeled out to mount an on-message assault to control the narrative.


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 22, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> The wheezing party machine is wheeled out to mount an on-message assault to control the narrative.


Just want to put the LP out of our misery


----------



## two sheds (Mar 22, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> The wheezing party machine is wheeled out to mount an on-message assault to control the narrative.





> Labour’s ruling national executive committee (NEC) last week composed a “longlist” comprising only his name


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 25, 2021)

It’s been a quiet couple of days so what better to ginger things up for the Labour Party than a very public internal binfire and the expulsion of a sitting councillor and potential rival for the constituency nomination 









						Labour councillor 'thrown out' over Hartlepool by-election criticism
					

Cllr Craig Hannaway says he was kicked out after tweets criticising Dr Paul Williams' decision to drop out of PCC race




					www.gazettelive.co.uk
				




How many more gruesome blunders does Labour have in them?


----------



## killer b (Mar 25, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> It’s been a quiet couple of days so what better to ginger things up for the Labour Party than a very public internal binfire and the expulsion of a sitting councillor and potential rival for the constituency nomination
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Interesting that twice in the article the Gazzette repeats the lie that local members selected Williams


----------



## Dom Traynor (Mar 25, 2021)

Craig's a decent bloke stupid move to kick him out. He could probably get reelected as an indie if he wanted


----------



## Wilf (Mar 25, 2021)

Given this is a potential loss to the Tories and a constituency that voted leave (heavily), what 2 considerations might Labour have going into this:

1. To avoid having a candidate with uber Remain full on dancing skeletons, rattling the closet door.
2. To avoid said bin fire with regard to imposed candidates, kick back from local party members leading to public rows and expulsions.


FFS, just have an open selection process where all reasonably qualified candidates are allowed to stand.  Perhaps have some kind of shortened process, but one where the losers shake hands and promise to support the winning candidate.  There's always a chance that losing candidates whine or even go on to stand as an independent, but if they've lost an actual ballot of members they just look like idiots.


----------



## killer b (Mar 26, 2021)

Poll here - I dunno if it means much as it's calculated using MRP methods from polling across the north rather than being targeted on Hartlepool itself, but it's all we've got so far...


----------



## ska invita (Mar 26, 2021)

Wilf said:


> TBH, I'd have Momentum as well up the list of least influential party groupings ever. This has them with 35,000 members in 2018 - and the dominant voice in something like a 350,000 rise in Labour membership:
> Momentum surges past 35,000 members with ‘more than 1,000 members joining every month’ | The Independent | The Independent
> Didn't manage to reverse Labour's disconnection with working class communities and didn't even get a grip on the party itself.


Momentum got Corbyn to 40% - no small feat. The working class vote for Labour went up significantly in 2017. 
Momentum was also subject to its own depressing anti-democratic coup. 



steeplejack said:


> How many more gruesome blunders does Labour have in them?


None of these string of actions are blunders, they are calculated, strategised steps. If only they could be put down to human error.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 26, 2021)

killer b said:


> Poll here - I dunno if it means much as it's calculated using MRP methods from polling across the north rather than being targeted on Hartlepool itself, but it's all we've got so far...



I saw that . Obviously didn't include NIP on voting intentions as wasn't a registered party.


----------



## killer b (Mar 26, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> I saw that . Obviously didn't include NIP on voting intentions as wasn't a registered party.


I don't imagine they'd show up in wider polling yet anyway tbh (if they ever do).


----------



## brogdale (Mar 26, 2021)

I see that the regionalist vote is likely to be split with the North East party standing Hilton Dawson.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 26, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> That all makes a lot of sense
> 
> But the idea of people in Hartlepool, or anywhere, possibly voting a *Tory!!* to Westminster out of 'protest', still thoroughly disgusts me
> 
> ...


Why why this is, why are people in Labour strongholds electing Conservative MPs?


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 26, 2021)

Sasaferrato said:


> Why why this is, why are people in Labour strongholds electing Conservative MPs?



This is a discussion for another thread, perhaps, but from 2010 onwards this has been happening, so it's not something just fuelled by Brexit. 

Traditionally Labour constituencies that have been Conservative held for some time include Blackpool, Bolton, Mansfield: they were added by a swathe of NE seats in 2019. This speaks of a wider issue amongst voters that will touch on personal economies, personal prejudices, Brexit, job security, access to news sources beyond the mainstream media, demographic changes and countless others besides. It can't just be "oh the boundaries lean towards creating Conservative seats," as I have seen in the run up to this year's boundary review: if Blyth Valley, Leigh, Bolsover, Blackpool, Carlisle, Barrow, even Burnley are voting Tory, it's far more serious and deep-rooted than "oh, it's clearly gerrymandering."


----------



## Sasaferrato (Mar 26, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> This is a discussion for another thread, perhaps, but from 2010 onwards this has been happening, so it's not something just fuelled by Brexit.
> 
> Traditionally Labour constituencies that have been Conservative held for some time include Blackpool, Bolton, Mansfield: they were added by a swathe of NE seats in 2019. This speaks of a wider issue amongst voters that will touch on personal economies, personal prejudices, Brexit, job security, access to news sources beyond the mainstream media, demographic changes and countless others besides. It can't just be "oh the boundaries lean towards creating Conservative seats," as I have seen in the run up to this year's boundary review: if Blyth Valley, Leigh, Bolsover, Blackpool, Carlisle, Barrow, even Burnley are voting Tory, it's far more serious and deep-rooted than "oh, it's clearly gerrymandering."



I find it quite amazing really. Scotland, which used to be a guaranteed 40+ seats for Labour has gone to the dark side.

Were Liverpool to crumble, that really would be the end for Labour.


----------



## andysays (Mar 26, 2021)

ska invita said:


> Momentum got Corbyn to 40% - no small feat. The working class vote for Labour went up significantly in 2017.
> Momentum was also subject to its own depressing anti-democratic coup.
> 
> 
> None of these string of actions are blunders, they are calculated, strategised steps. If only they could be put down to human error.


Probably straying off topic, but Corbyn's vote going up shouldn't be assumed to be entirely down to Momentum


----------



## JTG (Mar 26, 2021)

This and the other elections due on the same day will be a crucial test of Labour's strategy of offering zero opposition to the government whilst waging war on its own activist base. Will it be successful? I can't wait to find out!


----------



## mauvais (Mar 26, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> This is a discussion for another thread, perhaps, but from 2010 onwards this has been happening, so it's not something just fuelled by Brexit.
> 
> Traditionally Labour constituencies that have been Conservative held for some time include Blackpool, Bolton, Mansfield: they were added by a swathe of NE seats in 2019. This speaks of a wider issue amongst voters that will touch on personal economies, personal prejudices, Brexit, job security, access to news sources beyond the mainstream media, demographic changes and countless others besides. It can't just be "oh the boundaries lean towards creating Conservative seats," as I have seen in the run up to this year's boundary review: if Blyth Valley, Leigh, Bolsover, Blackpool, Carlisle, Barrow, even Burnley are voting Tory, it's far more serious and deep-rooted than "oh, it's clearly gerrymandering."


Blackpool South has been Tory for one election cycle, and was Tory until 1997. Blackpool North has literally always been Tory, until they fucked about with boundaries and brought in Fleetwood, whereupon it became Labour. That's now been reversed and it's back to being Tory.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 26, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I see that the regionalist vote is likely to be split with the North East party standing Hilton Dawson.


Think that the regionalist vote , what ever it turns out to be , is going to be influenced by profile unless there’s a huge amount of four knocking.


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 26, 2021)

Sasaferrato said:


> I find it quite amazing really. Scotland, which used to be a guaranteed 40+ seats for Labour has gone to the dark side.
> 
> Were Liverpool to crumble, that really would be the end for Labour.



Scotland is fascinating because voters - locally, and for both Holyrood and Westminster - have split either to the Conservatives or the SNP. Any "of the left" party, however broadly defined, have simply not been in contention at all.


----------



## tim (Mar 26, 2021)

killer b said:


> Poll here - I dunno if it means much as it's calculated using MRP methods from polling across the north rather than being targeted on Hartlepool itself, but it's all we've got so far...



It doesn't mean much at all bearing in mind the way that by-elections worth. Then again, a by-election three and a half years before the next general election doesn't mean much.


----------



## tim (Mar 26, 2021)

Sasaferrato said:


> I find it quite amazing really. Scotland, which used to be a guaranteed 40+ seats for Labour has gone to the dark side.
> 
> Were Liverpool to crumble, that really would be the end for Labour.


Liverpool Labour crumbles regularly, particularly at the dysfunctional City Council level; in the past, this has been to the benefit of the equally sleazy Liberals who have also spent a lot of time in charge over the last 50 years.


----------



## killer b (Mar 26, 2021)

tim said:


> Liverpool Labour crumbles regularly, particularly at the dysfunctional City Council level; in the past, this has been to the benefit of the equally sleazy Liberals who have also spent a lot of time in charge over the last 50 years.


I was wondering how diligent a student of Liverpool electoral history sas was on reading that too.


----------



## Monkeygrinder's Organ (Mar 26, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> Scotland is fascinating because voters - locally, and for both Holyrood and Westminster - have split either to the Conservatives or the SNP. Any "of the left" party, however broadly defined, have simply not been in contention at all.



I think the SNP are seen a broadly of the left party tbh. If that's true is debatable (I'd say not really but they probably are at least as far as Scottish Labour are) but I think that's how a lot of their voters see it.


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 26, 2021)

The SNP are only 'of the left' to those who used to think that Tony Benn was "the most dangerous man in Britain".

They are a centrist soft social-democratic party in theory, and considerably more right wing, particularly at local council level, in practice, I would argue. Couthy Scotticisms about looking after old folk and not levying tuition fees at university can't really disguise that.


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 26, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> The SNP are only 'of the left' to those who used to think that Tony Benn was "the most dangerous man in Britain".
> 
> They are a centrist soft social-democratic party in theory, and considerably more right wing, particularly at local council level, in practice, I would argue. Couthy Scotticisms about looking after old folk and not levying tuition fees at university can't really disguise that.


i used to think tony benn was the greatest windbag in britain.


----------



## Dogsauce (Mar 26, 2021)

Sasaferrato said:


> Why why this is, why are people in Labour strongholds electing Conservative MPs?



Full spectrum dominance, political debate only happens on their chosen territory. 2017 saw Corbyn‘s labour effective to some extent on facebook raising issues about housing, nationalisation etc., so they changed the algorithm and it won’t happen again. Elsewhere it’s nothing but Brexit, immigration, hard working families vs. shirkers etc, all the papers, all the TV, all over social media. A few Twitter bubbles can’t make a dent in this.


----------



## chilango (Mar 26, 2021)




----------



## chilango (Mar 26, 2021)

NIP polling at 5%


----------



## tim (Mar 26, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> i used to think tony benn was the greatest windbag in britain.


Certainly a major source of atmospheric pollution


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 26, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> i used to think tony benn was the greatest windbag in britain.


That was Neil Kinnock for me


----------



## Pickman's model (Mar 26, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> That was Neil Kinnock for me


it'd have been a close run thing


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 26, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> This is a discussion for another thread, perhaps, but from 2010 onwards this has been happening, so it's not something just fuelled by Brexit.
> 
> Traditionally Labour constituencies that have been Conservative held for some time include Blackpool, Bolton, Mansfield: they were added by a swathe of NE seats in 2019. This speaks of a wider issue amongst voters that will touch on personal economies, personal prejudices, Brexit, job security, access to news sources beyond the mainstream media, demographic changes and countless others besides. It can't just be "oh the boundaries lean towards creating Conservative seats," as I have seen in the run up to this year's boundary review: if Blyth Valley, Leigh, Bolsover, Blackpool, Carlisle, Barrow, even Burnley are voting Tory, it's far more serious and deep-rooted than "oh, it's clearly gerrymandering."


The decline in Labour voting and their  local organisations goes back a lot more years in a lot of these places.


----------



## killer b (Mar 26, 2021)

chilango said:


> NIP polling at 5%



not bad for a start


----------



## Knotted (Mar 26, 2021)

chilango said:


> NIP polling at 5%




Curiously good showing for Refuk.


----------



## brogdale (Mar 26, 2021)

Knotted said:


> Curiously good showing for Refuk.


Yes, who'd have thought that fully 11% of those Hartlepool voters responding to the poll were such right-libertarian fundamentalists?
They've really reeled these marks in.


----------



## bellaozzydog (Mar 26, 2021)

That Labour shoe in Doctor has the same dead eyes that haunt 40 years of cliff richard calendars


----------



## brogdale (Mar 27, 2021)

The vermin have selected "a farmer from North Yorkshire" as their candidate for the by-election.

Hmmm...doesn't immediately appear like the most perfect fit for the constituency?


----------



## brogdale (Mar 27, 2021)




----------



## Rimbaud (Mar 27, 2021)

chilango said:


> NIP polling at 5%




That Twitter accounts appear to have been deleted, do you have any other source for that?


----------



## chilango (Mar 27, 2021)

Rimbaud said:


> That Twitter accounts appear to have been deleted, do you have any other source for that?



Nope.

...and the NIP did comment underneath that it wasn't real. Problem is, sometimes it's hard to tell when they're joking and when they're not.

Hopefully some more polls will come out soon.


----------



## killer b (Mar 27, 2021)

They don't usually poll for by elections do they?


----------



## chilango (Mar 27, 2021)

killer b said:


> They don't usually poll for by elections do they?



Dunno. There's been that one so far (based on polling from across the North).


----------



## killer b (Mar 27, 2021)

chilango said:


> Dunno. There's been that one so far (based on polling from across the North).


that doesn't really count though - they were doing a 'red wall' MRP  and one of the seats happened to be Hartlepool rather than a specific Hartlepool poll.


----------



## Dom Traynor (Mar 27, 2021)

I seem to remember the only byelection polling will be commisoned by the parties for internal consumption


----------



## lazythursday (Mar 28, 2021)

So Thelma Walker duly selected as the NIP candidate for Hartlepool. The online buzz around the party is infectious, so hope they do well enough to give Labour a bloody nose.


----------



## JTG (Mar 28, 2021)

Qualifier: she's endorsed by them but don't think their registration is going to come through in time for their name to be on the ballot paper


----------



## discokermit (Mar 28, 2021)

if the north fucks off, and wales and scotland fucks off, im gonna campaign that the black country fucks off, or joins wales or something. if we had a new mercia the brummies would want to run it. fuck that.


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 28, 2021)

JTG said:


> Qualifier: she's endorsed by them but don't think their registration is going to come through in time for their name to be on the ballot paper



It's really strange, they applied for inclusion in good time for May so no idea why the Electoral Commission is taking so long.


----------



## ska invita (Mar 28, 2021)

lazythursday said:


> So Thelma Walker duly selected as the NIP candidate for Hartlepool. The online buzz around the party is infectious, so hope they do well enough to give Labour a bloody nose.



I hadn't heard of her... 

"On 18 November 2020, almost a year after losing her seat, she resigned her membership of the Labour Party on the evening after Keir Starmer declined to return the whip to Jeremy Corbyn. She later explained that she left because she felt Starmer was being spiteful towards Corbyn, even prior to his suspension, and because she had concerns about the party's positions on the Covert Human Intelligence Sources Bill and on schools being open during the COVID-19 pandemic.[10]"


Perfect shit stirring candidate


----------



## discokermit (Mar 28, 2021)

tainted by being a former mp. and a headmistress.
and is that a whippet in their logo?


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 28, 2021)

discokermit said:


> tainted by being a former mp. and a headmistress.
> and is that a whippet in their logo?



It is a whippet. And the colours are from the traditional/historic flag of Northumbria.


----------



## discokermit (Mar 28, 2021)

a whippet suggests an underlying lack of seriousness.


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 28, 2021)

lazythursday said:


> So Thelma Walker duly selected as the NIP candidate for Hartlepool. The online buzz around the party is infectious, so hope they do well enough to give Labour a bloody nose.


----------



## discokermit (Mar 28, 2021)

standing for the nips, with a whippet, stepping in a line of doody. 
i feel inspired.


----------



## discokermit (Mar 28, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> It is a whippet. And the colours are from the traditional/historic flag of Northumbria.


they should have gone with hen ogledd, then they could have united with the scots, irish, welsh and cornish in a pan celtic confederation. then, when the fortunes of "the celtic dragon™" far outshine london, you can march east and south and drive the saxons back to germany or wherever.


----------



## JTG (Mar 28, 2021)

Yeah I know it's that Swindon person but I really hope this is true


----------



## zahir (Mar 28, 2021)

JTG said:


> Qualifier: she's endorsed by them but don't think their registration is going to come through in time for their name to be on the ballot paper


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 29, 2021)

The For Britain Movement, supported at one stage (still?) by Morrissey, has decided to focus on standing in the upcoming Hartlepool Council elections, dismissing the by-election as a circus. They already have councillors on the council after previous elections.


----------



## killer b (Mar 29, 2021)

JTG said:


> Yeah I know it's that Swindon person but I really hope this is true



loads of those leftish cranks are saying stuff like this for clicks on twitter. I don't think it's real.


----------



## teqniq (Mar 29, 2021)

It would appear to be:


----------



## killer b (Mar 29, 2021)

I don't mean the thelma walker bit not being true, I mean the starmer's top team fuming bit.


----------



## killer b (Mar 29, 2021)

(I mean, maybe they are, but I doubt Rachel Swindon has the inside line)


----------



## teqniq (Mar 29, 2021)

Yes, it would seem unlikely.


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 29, 2021)

killer b said:


> (I mean, maybe they are, but I doubt Rachel Swindon has the inside line)


I always bring the salt pot whenever I see tweets like hers (and for most tweets from her.) "Sources close...." "My friends tell me..." "I believe that..." It's very easy to get picked up on Twitter with stuff like that.


----------



## JTG (Mar 29, 2021)

It doesn't really matter and it's fun to think about so who cares really


----------



## brogdale (Mar 29, 2021)

Has Walker previously shown any particular support for Northern devolution or secession?


----------



## killer b (Mar 29, 2021)

JTG said:


> It doesn't really matter and it's fun to think about so who cares really


You can think about it without signal boosting the unsourced hustling of the crank left though.


----------



## Dom Traynor (Mar 29, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Has Walker previously shown any particular support for Northern devolution or secession?


She was a member of the Hannah Mictchell Society which campaigned for Northern Devo I believe


----------



## brogdale (Mar 29, 2021)

Dom Traynor said:


> She was a member of the Hannah Mictchell Society which campaigned for Northern Devo I believe


Interesting; I'll look that up.


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 29, 2021)

The continuation SDP have nominated David Bettney, an ex-serviceman, here.


----------



## PaulOK (Mar 29, 2021)

JTG said:


> Yeah I know it's that Swindon person but I really hope this is true



I think Labour will be very disturbed at this news. She's an ex Labour MP. It is an incredible coup for a brand new Party. If anyone will save the NIP deposit it will be her.


----------



## DJWrongspeed (Mar 30, 2021)

Just checked the bookings odds. Lab / Con look about neck and neck.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 30, 2021)

Dunno if this is real but with his MILF tweet I keep seeing Dr Paul Williams morph into Dominic West's Doctor character in Brassic


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 30, 2021)

Given that Mike Hill has been forced out for sex pest type behaviour, doesn't look like his replacement is bombproof on that front either, leering over women on twitter. Been a genuinely disastrous candidate to date.

Whilst NIP won't win they may do quite well and poll enough to deny Labour a win in much the same way that the Brexit party did for the Tories in 2019. The Tory candidate looks guff as well however and pretty remote from what is a fiercely partisan and parochial electorate.

The other gubbins outfits are just scrambling for relevance.


----------



## JTG (Mar 30, 2021)

Low turn out, NIP save deposit, narrow Labour loss as a result, centrists blame everyone other than themselves


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 31, 2021)

Four elections on the same day in Hartlepool: Crime Commissioner, Tees Vallery Mayor, Local Council, Westminster 

Suspect this may hurt the smaller parties and for the NIP the by election has come a little too early.

Sur Kieth meanwhile did a toe curling visit to the local power station to point meaningfully at the nuclear reactor's dials and make stentorian pronouncements in a hi-vis jacket.


----------



## lazythursday (Mar 31, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Four elections on the same day in Hartlepool: Crime Commissioner, Tees Vallery Mayor, Local Council, Westminster
> 
> Suspect this may hurt the smaller parties and for the NIP the by election has come a little too early.
> 
> Sur Kieth meanwhile did a toe curling visit to the local power station to point meaningfully at the nuclear reactor's dials and make stentorian pronouncements in a hi-vis jacket.


Do the extra elections make much difference? I'd assume it will be a low turnout, as by-elections usually are even without the pandemic effect.


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 31, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Four elections on the same day in Hartlepool: Crime Commissioner, Tees Vallery Mayor, Local Council, Westminster
> 
> Suspect this may hurt the smaller parties and for the NIP the by election has come a little too early.
> 
> Sur Kieth meanwhile did a toe curling visit to the local power station to point meaningfully at the nuclear reactor's dials and make stentorian pronouncements in a hi-vis jacket.



Dunno if voters will judge candidates in each individual election or just follow a party across the board. The Tees Valley Mayor election will be quite interesting. Houchen the Tory Mayor got elected by 500 votes , Stockton and Darlington had him in first place  vote , the other areas including Hartlepool had the Labour Candidate in first place . Since then he has bought Teeside Airport back into public control and was behind the bid for the Tees ValleyFree Port .


----------



## kebabking (Mar 31, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Dunno if voters will judge candidates in each individual lection or just follow a party across the board. The Tees Valley Mayor election will be quite interesting. Houchen the Tory Mayor got elected by 500 votes , Stockton and Darlington had him in first place  vote , the other areas including Hartlepool had the Labour Candidate in first place . Since then he has bought Teeside Airport back into public control and was behind the bid for the Tees ValleyFree Port .



I've noticed on that he's been getting support - on SM - from lots of 'national', high status Tories, not just now but for at least a year - the airport thing has been a big focus of that.

Long game?


----------



## The39thStep (Mar 31, 2021)

kebabking said:


> I've noticed on that he's been getting support - on SM - from lots of 'national', high status Tories, not just now but for at least a year - the airport thing has been a big focus of that.
> 
> Long game?


I've got a couple of friends who live in that area who think he's got support now from cross party voters. It will be interesting as to whether support for him feeds across into other Tory candidates in the other elections on the same day or whether a bloc Labour vote has an impact on him.


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 31, 2021)

I hear the same. Will be very surprised if Houchen is replaced.


----------



## ska invita (Mar 31, 2021)

killer b said:


> loads of those leftish cranks are saying stuff like this for clicks on twitter. I don't think it's real.


Who is she KB? You seem to have good files on the Twitterati


----------



## killer b (Mar 31, 2021)

ska invita said:


> Who is she KB? You seem to have good files on the Twitterati


Rachel Swindon? Just a very prolific left-wing meme-tweeter. Very much focused on reach above accuracy. The centrists all say she's a racist, but I've not seen anything convincing on that.

IIRC she had a bit of press coverage a few years ago, Owen Jones interviewed her if you want to find out more.


----------



## ska invita (Mar 31, 2021)

killer b said:


> Rachel Swindon? Just a very prolific left-wing meme-tweeter. Very much focused on reach above accuracy. The centrists all say she's a racist, but I've not seen anything convincing on that.
> 
> IIRC she had a bit of press coverage a few years ago, Owen Jones interviewed her if you want to find out more.


How is she a crank?


----------



## discokermit (Mar 31, 2021)

shes after the money.


----------



## killer b (Mar 31, 2021)

ska invita said:


> How is she a crank?


I don't have any specifics sorry - I've not really paid attention to those guys since December 2019. She's probably not as cranky as some, I just mentally group all the skwawkbox/Canary orbiting commenters as crank left for convenience.


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 31, 2021)

Didn’t she tweet something about Rothschild’s oil in Israel?


----------



## Shechemite (Mar 31, 2021)

A little cranky


----------



## killer b (Mar 31, 2021)

I dunno, I've deleted my files. She's flagged up as a wrong 'un anyway, I don't feel any need to look much further.


----------



## strung out (Mar 31, 2021)

Buzzfeed did an article on her a couple of years ago: Meet The Woman Leading Jeremy Corbyn's Twitter Army


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 31, 2021)

lazythursday said:


> Do the extra elections make much difference? I'd assume it will be a low turnout, as by-elections usually are even without the pandemic effect.



I meant more in terms of folk being arsed to vote different parties in different elections, rather than in turnout.


----------



## PR1Berske (Mar 31, 2021)




----------



## Monkeygrinder's Organ (Mar 31, 2021)

REFUK John Prescott?


----------



## brogdale (Mar 31, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


>



Presumably the Refuks think that saying "proud father" signals that their candidate isn't gay?


----------



## ska invita (Mar 31, 2021)

Proud British Self Employed Father

Makes you want to stand up and salute the man


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 31, 2021)

Richard Tice clearly sees his post-Farage farrago has little to no chance and so can't be arsed standing himself. The SDP have adopted some ex-military veteran so the "family, community, traditional values" supporters have a couple of names on which to squander a few hundred votes between them.


----------



## steeplejack (Mar 31, 2021)

When do nominations close? The loon parties are a bit slow off the mark, disappointingly. Still no news if the Workers' Party of Britain's North Korean sub has surfaced off the Headland yet.


----------



## brogdale (Mar 31, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Richard Tice clearly sees his post-Farage farrago has little to no chance and so can't be arsed standing himself. The SDP have adopted some ex-military veteran so the "family, community, traditional values" supporters have a couple of names on which to squander a few hundred votes between them.


Quite surprised that the vermin couldn't find at least one local candidate.
As someone unfamiliar with the region, I'm not convinced that a "farmer from North Yorkshire" is the most obvious fit for Hartlepool?


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 2, 2021)

The Liberal Democrat candidate bravely shouts _"Contact!!"_ as his electoral Sopwith Camel is fired up for a dogfight with a squadron of Mig fighters.

 The seasoned by-election mechanics look on sagely as he wobbily takes off, muttering _"poor sod"_ under the breath as he heads off into battle, never to be seen again.

A local pub landlord will run as an independent, with a campaign focused on child poverty, the destitution caused by lockdown, and education. I don't know him but he seems a decent fellow from this article. Exactly the kind of guy Hartlepool has elected in the past (cf H'Angus the Monkey).

Meanwhile a fat floppy blond tit calling himself the Prime Minister appeared yesterday for a walkabout, presumably to escape pesky questions about his love life being asked by no one, and what can probably be described as a "glacial" atmosphere at home. A harmless meet & greet at a pahrmaceutical firm but the Tories are making the most of mayor Houchen, who accompanied him everywhere.


----------



## JTG (Apr 2, 2021)

Just seen this on twitter (data relates to Hartlepool and also ten years out of date so likely even stronger now)


----------



## brogdale (Apr 2, 2021)

You've taken the dog out for a stroll by the beach in the sun, take a few minutes to sit down and look out to sea and then...along come couple of snake-oil cunts to ruin your afternoon...poor fuckers.


----------



## magneze (Apr 2, 2021)

"Which direction is left again?"


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 5, 2021)

After Joti Brar's schoolmarm-ish harangue last week, "Andrew" warms to to the theme of Northern Independence, and has decided on your behalf that the NIP is not important, and only attractive after too many pints in the pub. Really struggling for coherence by the end. _errr...it's just not important...err...issues...err...Britishj identity...errr...annoying WPGB earworm jingle_



Right you are then. Still no WPGB candidate announced.


----------



## PR1Berske (Apr 5, 2021)

My touch-typing fingers love to test themselves with videos like this. There's a lot to be said for transcribing how fringe figures truly speak.


----------



## Stay Beautiful (Apr 5, 2021)

brogdale said:


> You've taken the dog out for a stroll by the beach in the sun, take a few minutes to sit down and look out to sea and then...along come couple of snake-oil cunts to ruin your afternoon...poor fuckers.
> 
> View attachment 261400



Just love the no tie thing. Amazing.


----------



## tim (Apr 5, 2021)

brogdale said:


> You've taken the dog out for a stroll by the beach in the sun, take a few minutes to sit down and look out to sea and then...along come couple of snake-oil cunts to ruin your afternoon...poor fuckers.
> 
> View attachment 261400


Hartlepool always looks rather magnificent. It's a shame we only see it when there's a political circus performance going on.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 5, 2021)

steeplejack said:
			
		

> Four elections on the same day in Hartlepool: Crime Commissioner, Tees Vallery Mayor, Local Council, Westminster
> 
> Suspect this may hurt the smaller parties and for the NIP the by election has come a little too early.





lazythursday said:


> Do the extra elections make much difference? I'd assume it will be a low turnout, as by-elections usually are even without the pandemic effect.



I was under the impression, somehow, that when by-elections were held on the same day as locals, turnout improved.

I haven't any links/evidence for that though, just a vague memory of some figures I once read 

Other here will know more, though.


----------



## Puddy_Tat (Apr 6, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> I was under the impression, somehow, that when by-elections were held on the same day as locals, turnout improved.



think turnout in the locals improves, but not sure about in the by-election


----------



## discokermit (Apr 6, 2021)

oh.


----------



## Wilf (Apr 6, 2021)

brogdale said:


> You've taken the dog out for a stroll by the beach in the sun, take a few minutes to sit down and look out to sea and then...along come couple of snake-oil cunts to ruin your afternoon...poor fuckers.
> 
> View attachment 261400


He's doing a magic trick, where he fires his sensible tie onto the bloke on the right.


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 6, 2021)

discokermit said:


>




All going swimmingly for Sur Kieth & his shite stitched-up empty suit candidate.


----------



## Wilf (Apr 6, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> All going swimmingly for Sur Kieth & his shite stitched-up empty suit candidate.


Also, if NIP was to take off, it would presumably erode Labour even further. That poll is Labour getting fucked over in a straight fight.


----------



## PR1Berske (Apr 6, 2021)

We don't have a history of constituency polls in this country so big pinch of salt about those figures. BUT, given the mood music in similar constituencies at the 2019 election it does not surprise me that such a massive swing away from Labour is being suggested.

BIG megalol at NIP not being able to translate being Twitter famous into electoral success. Who knew. Honestly.


----------



## brogdale (Apr 6, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> BIG megalol at NIP not being able to translate being Twitter famous into electoral success. Who knew. Honestly.


But a tweeter beating the LDs, and putting them fourth, would be funny though.


----------



## kebabking (Apr 6, 2021)

brogdale said:


> But a tweeter beating the LDs, and putting them fourth, would be funny though.



Be fair, Garry Glitter would probably beat the Lib Dems..


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 6, 2021)

brogdale said:


> You've taken the dog out for a stroll by the beach in the sun, take a few minutes to sit down and look out to sea and then...along come couple of snake-oil cunts to ruin your afternoon...poor fuckers.
> 
> View attachment 261400


The dog's about to puke


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 6, 2021)

"Stop me if you've heard this one too"


----------



## brogdale (Apr 6, 2021)

kebabking said:


> Be fair, Garry Glitter would probably beat the Lib Dems..


& 2% of a sample size of 502 is just 10 people expressing the intent to vote for them.  
Could be Proudfoot's family.


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 6, 2021)

kebabking said:


> Be fair, Garry Glitter would probably beat the Lib Dems..


Sir Jimmy Savile OBE KCSG would give them a run for their money. And he's been dead for years.


----------



## brogdale (Apr 6, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> View attachment 261923
> "Stop me if you've heard this one too"


----------



## brogdale (Apr 6, 2021)

discokermit said:


> oh.



Having got their Brexit, the kipper vote has split 4:1 Tory to Labour.
The false consciousness is strong with this one.


----------



## MickiQ (Apr 6, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> After Joti Brar's schoolmarm-ish harangue last week, "Andrew" warms to to the theme of Northern Independence, and has decided on your behalf that the NIP is not important, and only attractive after too many pints in the pub. Really struggling for coherence by the end. _errr...it's just not important...err...issues...err...Britishj identity...errr...annoying WPGB earworm jingle_
> 
> 
> 
> Right you are then. Still no WPGB candidate announced.



TBF  he's right but everything he said about the NIP is even truer in spades about the WPGB,  They're both protest votes and at least the NIP are offering something new


----------



## JTG (Apr 6, 2021)

I mean, NIP have been around less than a year and only just starting to move away from twitter into real life, 2% is amazing tbh


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 6, 2021)

JTG said:


> I mean, NIP have been around less than a year and only just starting to move away from twitter into real life, 2% is amazing tbh


Yeh 2% in an opinion poll is really something


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 6, 2021)

The Hartlepool survey was commissioned by the CWU, very small sample size but some of the results on policies make interesting reading.


			https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/04174005/CWU-Hartlepool-Constituency-Poll-Summary-Document.pdf


----------



## ska invita (Apr 6, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> BIG megalol at NIP not being able to translate being Twitter famous into electoral success. Who knew. Honestly.


They're not even famous on Twitter, 40k followers globally is nothing.

Anyone expecting more than this at this stage is delusional. It took UKIP 25 years, huge sums of money, and constant mainstream media exposure to get success.

(Also Twitter is relatively niche)


----------



## brogdale (Apr 6, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> The Hartlepool survey was commissioned by the CWU, very small sample size but some of the results on policies make interesting reading.
> 
> 
> https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/04174005/CWU-Hartlepool-Constituency-Poll-Summary-Document.pdf


Useful; a core of 12% of cunts.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 6, 2021)

Hartlepool working class not deceived by the Guardian narrative and the plastic left wing


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 6, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> All going swimmingly for Sur Kieth & his shite stitched-up empty suit candidate.



But a 20% rise in the Tory vote, in this Northern seat,  isn't _just_ about Starmer IMO (although obviously he's not fucking helping! At all!  )

Why are the Tories (apparantly) being yet  more popular here? Questions need to be asked directly about that. 

And about why the fuck voters want to vote for the fucking Tories???  

As I said much earlier in this thread, voters need to own their own shit decisions a lot more**, but that should be a separate thread probably ... 

***NOT* a suggested campaign slogan or strategy for anyone, btw


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 6, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Hartlepool working class not deceived by the Guardian narrative and the plastic left wing
> 
> View attachment 261943




Thise are miniscule, deposit-losing figures though, tbf.

I have my doubts that the sodding Guardian has mnch influence there.


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 6, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> But a 20% rise in the Tory vote, in this Northern seat,  isn't _just_ about Starmer IMO (although obviously he's not fucking helping! At all!  )
> 
> Why are the Tories (apparantly) being yet  more popular here? Questions need to be asked directly about that.
> 
> ...


Too late, I've suggested it to conservative central office and already have a positive email back.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 6, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> Thise are miniscule, deposit-losing figures though, tbf.
> 
> I have my doubts that the sodding Guardian has mnch influence there.


The Guardian and its agents has influence everywhere William.


----------



## MickiQ (Apr 6, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Hartlepool working class not deceived by the Guardian narrative and the plastic left wing
> 
> View attachment 261943


OK so he's complaining that someone else's protest is more of a protest than the one he's making?


----------



## brogdale (Apr 6, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> But a 20% rise in the Tory vote, in this Northern seat,  isn't _just_ about Starmer IMO (although obviously he's not fucking helping! At all!  )
> 
> Why are the Tories (apparantly) being yet  more popular here? Questions need to be asked directly about that.
> 
> ...


They've mopped up 4/5 of the former UKIP vote and obviously held onto a large % of the _first time I've ever voted Tory/my old Dad would be turning in his grave/just this once to get Brexit done _vote from 2019.


----------



## chilango (Apr 6, 2021)

Labour is sooooo fucked.


----------



## rekil (Apr 6, 2021)

brogdale said:


> You've taken the dog out for a stroll by the beach in the sun, take a few minutes to sit down and look out to sea and then...along come couple of snake-oil cunts to ruin your afternoon...poor fuckers.
> 
> View attachment 261400


_'They have turned the weans against us.'_


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 6, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> OK so he's complaining that someone else's protest is more of a protest than the one he's making?


Something that you talk about in the pub after a few beers. That's my favourite type of discussion tbh.


----------



## JTG (Apr 6, 2021)

Tbh being gleeful about any infant left alternative getting low numbers in a single poll five months after starting is a bit weird iyam but you guys do you


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 6, 2021)

JTG said:


> Tbh being gleeful about any infant left alternative getting low numbers in a single poll five months after starting is a bit weird iyam but you guys do you


It is an opinion poll

It is meaningless

There is only one poll which is important and it's not happened yet


----------



## JTG (Apr 6, 2021)

Cheers Captain Obvious


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 6, 2021)

JTG said:


> Cheers Captain Obvious


You seemed to need reminding after your cringeworthy 337


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 6, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> TBF  he's right but everything he said about the NIP is even truer in spades about the WPGB,  They're both protest votes and at least the NIP are offering something new



The lack of self-awareness that you mention, the mumbling incoherence, and that fucking ear worm all made for a laughable watch. Particulalrly as they don't even have a candidate in the race (yet)


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 6, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> It is an opinion poll
> 
> It is meaningless
> 
> There is only one poll which is important and it's not happened yet


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 6, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> View attachment 261981


Not sure they're ready for his candidacy


----------



## Wilf (Apr 6, 2021)

JTG said:


> I mean, NIP have been around less than a year and only just starting to move away from twitter into real life, 2% is amazing tbh


Not quite sure if you are being serious? 

Anyway, I'm not as enthused as some people on here about the NIP, but expected them to be polling higher than this.  It's just about the perfect opportunity for them - a period of Labour decline generally and Lord Keith even more so; a constituency with a history of electing independents; a residual level of pro-devolution sentiment (that John Prescott completely misjudged with his woeful proposals back in 2003 or whenever the referendum was). Also, it's a by election,  again, the kind of territory that should be good for new parties with a 'USP'.  The big trend here is of course the tories looking like they'll win it, but I'm actually surprised that Labour's vote looks to be holding up at all.


----------



## MickiQ (Apr 6, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> But a 20% rise in the Tory vote, in this Northern seat,  isn't _just_ about Starmer IMO (although obviously he's not fucking helping! At all!  )
> 
> Why are the Tories (apparantly) being yet  more popular here? Questions need to be asked directly about that.
> 
> ...


It's not totally surprising that the Tories are doing that well, Outside Scotland they are effectively the only serious political party left, Labour is not so much a party as several disparate groups in the same place stood around sulking and not talking to each other. 
As for the LibDems, I keep thinking they must hit the bottom soon but nope still in free fall.


----------



## JTG (Apr 6, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> You seemed to need reminding after your cringeworthy 337


Not really no. Obviously I am correct 😊


----------



## JTG (Apr 6, 2021)

Wilf said:


> Not quite sure if you are being serious?
> 
> Anyway, I'm not as enthused as some people on here about the NIP, but expected them to be polling higher than this.  It's just about the perfect opportunity for them - a period of Labour decline generally and Lord Keith even more so; a constituency with a history of electing independents; a residual level of pro-devolution sentiment (that John Prescott completely misjudged with his woeful proposals back in 2003 or whenever the referendum was). Also, it's a by election,  again, the kind of territory that should be good for new parties with a 'USP'.  The big trend here is of course the tories looking like they'll win it, but I'm actually surprised that Labour's vote looks to be holding up at all.


I mean I don't think I'm enthused beyond wishing them well and thinking that people with no funding and little time to have made much impression are doing ok

I realise everyone on here is jaded and about 102 years old but honestly


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 6, 2021)

Just got an invite to comment on their Minifesto but no document attached ☹️


----------



## Wilf (Apr 6, 2021)

JTG said:


> I mean I don't think I'm enthused beyond wishing them well and thinking that people with no funding and little time to have made much impression are doing ok
> 
> I realise everyone on here is jaded and about 102 years old but honestly


For me, getting 2% in a poll (or ballot) is marginally better than the local weirdo or 'independent' who nobody has heard of. It suggests there are real people planning to vote for NIP's platform - as opposed to the random noise you might get in any survey - but is just about the lowest level of _active _support you can get. 

For me, we are in varying gradations of awfulness at the moment.  I'm not into parliamentary politics, but would still prefer Labour hold onto this seat. If Labour were to lose this seat I'd prefer it was with NIP getting a good showing. It would be a shot across the bows, though I still don't think Labour could even conceive of tacking left as a result. Behind all this is the failure of Corbynism. He and Momentum plonked a version of social democracy down and hoped people would go for it.  They couldn't take the leap in the dark and think about using the hundreds of thousands of new members to build something in communities.  Hartlepool is lost because of the long term failure of the Labour Party.


----------



## Monkeygrinder's Organ (Apr 6, 2021)

They've only been going a few weeks haven't they? I mean if I'm honest I don't expect much to come of it longer term but I still wouldn't be reading much into them not having become massive just yet.


----------



## ska invita (Apr 6, 2021)

Monkeygrinder's Organ said:


> They've only been going a few weeks haven't they? I mean if I'm honest I don't expect much to come of it longer term but I still wouldn't be reading much into them not having become massive just yet.


theyve yet to start campaigning / spending money supposedly


----------



## JTG (Apr 6, 2021)

Well indeed. Yelling that they're not doing very well is silly atm but here we are


----------



## Smokeandsteam (Apr 6, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> It's not totally surprising that the Tories are doing that well, Outside Scotland they are effectively the only serious political party left, Labour is not so much a party as several disparate groups in the same place stood around sulking and not talking to each other.
> As for the LibDems, I keep thinking they must hit the bottom soon but nope still in free fall.



That’s it in a nutshell. Labour aren’t, and more importantly (from their perspective) aren’t perceived to be, a serious organisation any more. The interesting thing about that CWU poll is that there remains a significant element of the electorate in Hartlepool who might vote along social democratic lines but don’t have a realistic option to vote for.

I’d also add that Brexit - and Labour’s position on it - was a moment of departure for a significant segment of lifelong Labour voters that had always voted for the party. Winning those votes back will be a tough task: even if a serious programme is put before the electorate. Under the current leadership and with the palpable divides: intersecting in countless ways, there’s no chance....


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 6, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> That’s it in a nutshell. Labour aren’t, and more importantly (from their perspective) aren’t perceived to be, a serious organisation any more. The interesting thing about that CWU poll is that there remains a significant element of the electorate in Hartlepool who might vote along social democratic lines but don’t have a realistic option to vote for.
> 
> I’d also add that Brexit - and Labour’s position on it - was a moment of departure for a significant segment of lifelong Labour voters that had always voted for the party. Winning those votes back will be a tough task: even if a serious programme is put before the electorate. Under the current leadership and with the palpable divides: intersecting in countless ways, there’s no chance....



I agree with pretty much all of that, but I would speculate -- speculate!! -- that Brexit won't remain the biggest election and political subject for ever, or even for all that long necessarily.

The biggest future "hope" for leftish Labour people is surely for the Tories to fuck up further.

Also, obviously, for even a mildly social-dem type Lab manifesto to look better than more Toryism. I appreciate that moderation at that shit level is boring and inadequate, but .....

In other words,  Brexit needs to stop being so important in elections and wider politics.

Fuck knows how that will happen, and the way Labour and the useless Starmer are going ATM, is a hindrance not a help.

Still, the Tories fucking up over Brexit -- and everything!! --  might?? happen sooner.

There's also the imperative that (some!) voters stop being so fucking ready to vote Tory. The twunts!   

These   's of mine apologise for their influence on this input ....


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 6, 2021)

Short version   : *The Fucking Tories are still going to Fucking Win this Fucking Hartlepool By-Election!!!* 

Sort it out and surprise us please, events ....


----------



## Smokeandsteam (Apr 6, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> I agree with pretty much all of that, but I would speculate -- speculate!! -- that Brexit won't remain the biggest election and political subject for ever, or even for all that long necessarily.



It’s not the issue - Brexit is done and dusted. It’s  the recognition and/or confirmation that Labour was fully prepared to dismiss an embedded section of its support and actively undermine their decision. A perceived stab in the back that will be repaid - in spades.


----------



## Puddy_Tat (Apr 6, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> I agree with pretty much all of that, but I would speculate -- speculate!! -- that Brexit won't remain the biggest election and political subject for ever, or even for all that long necessarily.



dunno.

could be a 'rejoin' manifesto


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 6, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> It’s not the issue - Brexit is done and dusted. It’s  the recognition and/or confirmation that Labour was fully prepared to dismiss an embedded section of its support and actively undermine their their decision. A perceived stab in the back that will be repaid - in spades.



I agree with that too, but will that factor last for ever?

For it not to, depends (hugely? -- and don't think I'm optimistic) on Labour sorting their shit out -- but also, on the Tories fucking up big style too, IMO.

Shortest I'm capable of


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 6, 2021)

Puddy_Tat said:


> dunno.
> 
> could be a 'rejoin' manifesto




59% or many more of Labour members should want the subject to be fucking changed -- Brexit is boring!


----------



## Smokeandsteam (Apr 6, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> 59% or many more of Labour members should want the subject to be fucking changed -- Brexit is boring!



Brexit is done. It’s only nostalgia laden ultras like Adonis who want to keep the debate going. An increasingly weird, otherworldly and out of step group are continuity remain.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 6, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Brexit is done. It’s only nostalgia laden ultras like Adonis who want to keep the debate going. An increasingly weird, otherworldly and out of step group are continuity remain.



I'm even an ex-Remainer myself, but the fact that we -- and hopefully other lefties, Labour or not --could find room to agree, is good


----------



## Rimbaud (Apr 6, 2021)

Monkeygrinder's Organ said:


> They've only been going a few weeks haven't they? I mean if I'm honest I don't expect much to come of it longer term but I still wouldn't be reading much into them not having become massive just yet.



Especially not in Hartlepool which is an elderly constituency. 

I could see them doing quite well in younger more urban constituencies in the likes of Newcastle and Liverpool.


----------



## Puddy_Tat (Apr 6, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> It’s only nostalgia laden ultras like Adonis who want to keep the debate going.



do they now make up 59% of the remaining labour party membership?


----------



## ska invita (Apr 6, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Brexit is done. It’s only nostalgia laden ultras like Adonis who want to keep the debate going. An increasingly weird, otherworldly and out of step group are continuity remain.


I hope so, but I doubt it. I expect Brexit isn't done, its only just begun. The Europe-question used to be a chain around the neck of the Tories. For them the chain is off and its now on Labour instead. There are many possible events on the horizon that will at each step ensure the issue will refuse to die.


----------



## Puddy_Tat (Apr 6, 2021)

ska invita said:


> I hope so, but I doubt it. I expect Brexit isn't done, its only just begun. The Europe-question used to be a chain around the neck of the Tories. For them the chain is off and its now on Labour instead. There are many possible events on the horizon that will at each step ensure the issue will refuse to die.



as i think i've said on another thread, i have a feeling that johnson and his chums will manufacture a row with the 'dastardly' EU over the legality of the british sausage (or something like that) every time they want a boost in the polls, or to distract from something...


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 6, 2021)

ska invita said:


> I hope so, but I doubt it. I expect Brexit isn't done, its only just begun. The Europe-question used to be a chain around the neck of the Tories. *For them the chain is off and its now on Labour instead*. There are many possible events on the horizon that will at each step ensure the issue will refuse to die.



Agree.

Labour, if even _slightly_ sensible, could learn a bit from the one-and-only *half*-sensible thing that Cameron _ever_ said (back sometime before 2010) -- "The Tories need to stop banging on about Europe"

But they didn't, and neither did he -- not that the Tories always lost from banging on about it ... 

*#SubjectChangeFromBoringEuroShitNow   !!! *


----------



## Wilf (Apr 6, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> It’s not the issue - Brexit is done and dusted. It’s  the recognition and/or confirmation that Labour was fully prepared to dismiss an embedded section of its support and actively undermine their decision. A perceived stab in the back that will be repaid - in spades.


I think Labour's stance on Brexit is a big part of the reason they are about to lose Hartlepool, not just because of the direct link to a leave voting constituency. It was also the _lack _of a stance, the ridiculous formulations they went through when trying to answer an interviewer's question on the subject ('our position remains unchanged... unless things change at the special conference... unlike the present government, we... blah...').  Throughout theresa may's parliamentary trials over brexit they wanted to play the ever so clever game of tempting enough tories to bring her down rather than take a stance.  They carried on with that game so long that it would have been a shock to the system for them to come out with anything clear in 2019, so they didn't.  Not surprisingly, a party that could say GET. BREXIT. DONE. has done rather well.  This was all Sur Keith and his lot of course, but Corbyn was the one unable to come out with a simple coherent line.


----------



## PR1Berske (Apr 7, 2021)

Remain supporter here. Realistic one, mind.

(RE)-joining would mean doing so on very different terms. We'd have to join Schengen, we'd have to join the euro, we'd have to do a lot of things which we'd successfully negotiated against during our previous membership. Selling that to an instinctively anti-EU population would be impossible. 

Were Scotland to gain her independence, and that's not looking likely either now, the same would be true. Not membership on Scotland's terms, but on the EU's agreed terms for any new applicant.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 7, 2021)

You'd think that NIP were advocating building some form of Berlin Wall


----------



## Knotted (Apr 7, 2021)

I really haven't kept up with left sectology. Is Workers Party GB Harpal Brar's latest outfit?


----------



## PR1Berske (Apr 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> You'd think that NIP were advocating building some form of Berlin Wall





I mean, I'm no NIP supporter but I _love_ that attempt at a snidy camp eye-roll moment at the end. Girl, please.


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 7, 2021)

Joti Brar is super, super annoying.


----------



## two sheds (Apr 7, 2021)

No she's right ... what the flip?


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 7, 2021)

It's astonishing that her two minute peppery harangues haven't been rewarded with enthusiastic and near-unanimous support at the polling booths.

She's like an irritable chief librarian criticising dilatory and slapdash re-shelving efforts in a zoom meeting.


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 8, 2021)

Former Brexit Party pilotless drone and "businessman" with a famous name, announces plans to stand as an independent.

Ralph Ward-Jackson says that both the main party candidates are at the beck and call of London-based HQs and don't understand Hartlepool. He knows this of course as he himself is based in, er, London.

He is the great nephew of his Victorian namesake, the person that founded West Hartlepool, previously a small fishing port and agricultural town, into a coal / iron town in the nineteenth century using tactics of extremely dubious legality. A "privateer". His aim was the build up Hartlepool as an "East Coast Liverpool" in Victorian times. Unsurprisingly the local Weatherspoon's joint on Church Street, near to his statue, is named after him.

Not so much an outright loon as an oddball candidate standing without any obvious platform or purpose. _"My great uncle founded this place. Vote for me"_, not really being a terribly interesting platform on which to stand on anything beyond church warden level.

Ward-Jackson is the last candidate to roll under the descending shutters. Nominations closed today. 

A tepid response to Joti Brar and "Andrew's" stern warnings on the NIP has presumably meant that the WPGB have decided that the balance of class forces is not in their favour and therefore, much to our collective sadness, there won't be a fearless advocate for the Juche philosophy on the East Durham coast this time. I reckon it's only a matter of time before a giant mural of Kim Jong-Il appears in Seaton Carew once the 3% of folk who will vote for the revanchist Bonaprtists of the NIP realise their fundamental error, and repent.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 8, 2021)

NIP didn’t get registered as a party in time so standing as an Independent . Workers Party seem to have written off Hartlepool .


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 8, 2021)

who the fuck are the Heritage Party?


----------



## Shechemite (Apr 8, 2021)

David curtens lot. Like Laurence fox but with more crazy church people


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 8, 2021)

Thank you. Only three candidates live in Hartlepool from a list of sixteen. With a fiercely partisan local electorate this will be a factor. I have a strange feeling the pub landlord (Killick) might do alright.


----------



## Wilf (Apr 8, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> NIP didn’t get registered as a party in time so standing as an Independent . Workers Party seem to have written off Hartlepool .



Don't know why they didn't go with 'Northeast Independence', just dropping 'party'?

Edit: I'm struggling to increase the size of that to the point where I can read it, but there already looks to be a North East Party??


----------



## PR1Berske (Apr 8, 2021)

£500 a candidate deposit, remember. 
Returned if you get 5% of votes cast (and it has to be 5%, not 4.99...%)


----------



## PR1Berske (Apr 8, 2021)

Sixteen candidates at a by-election :


Bermondsey 1983
Brent East 2003
Hartlepool 2021


----------



## brogdale (Apr 11, 2021)

Observer's take on the lack of LP activists in Hartlepool...hmmm


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 12, 2021)

Sur Kieth himself taking charge of a machine gun nest, in a desperate last stand.


----------



## MickiQ (Apr 12, 2021)

Winning matters more to Starmer than it does to anyone else, He hasn't united the LP, he's just suppressed dissent which isn't the same thing. One failure probably won't cost him his position but it is certainly not going to make his life any easier.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Apr 12, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> But a 20% rise in the Tory vote, in this Northern seat,  isn't _just_ about Starmer IMO (although obviously he's not fucking helping! At all!  )
> 
> Why are the Tories (apparantly) being yet  more popular here? Questions need to be asked directly about that.
> 
> ...


Short answer, people in general do want to vote for the Tories. I'm 68. Fifty of those years haven't been under a Labour government.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 12, 2021)

Sasaferrato said:


> *Short answer, people in general do want to vote for the Tories*. I'm 68. Fifty of those years haven't been under a Labour government.



Not everywhere, and not to a 20%-rise-in-the-Tory-support level either. 

I was specifically talking about one particular Hartlepool-only poll.


----------



## Sasaferrato (Apr 12, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> Not everywhere, and not to a 20%-rise-in-the-Tory-support level either.
> 
> I was specifically talking about one particular Hartlepool-only poll.



I know William, I was teasing.


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 12, 2021)

All the Tories had to do was pick a local-ish candidate who wasn't mad, wasn't a gangster and didn't visibly have shite running down their leg. Which makes it a puzzle why they've chosen a posh North Yorkshire farmer type, who appears to know nothing about the constituency. That may yet be an own goal.

The embarrassment come from Labour having to mount a desperate, ragged-banner defence of a constituency they should be winning very comfortably, and the optics of the leadership being pressganged into canvassing and leaflet folding are very bad, too.

Will be 1500 votes either way I feel.


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 12, 2021)

Borough Council candidates also announced

Depressingly high populist / far right presence between a mixture of the Hartlepool Independent Union (ex Brexit Party), the Veterans and People's Party (hard right Brexiteers and Walter Mittys who have played footsie with the ex-Brexit Party and Tories) and the openly fascist "For Britain" standing in a few wards as well.

The wheezing half-dead carcass of the Socialist Labour Party has managed a couple of candidates but seem washed up. No NIP unless some of the listed independent folk are affiliated. Of the WPGB, their lack of candidates suggests a smug contentment with meta-level megaphone posturing and youtube diatribes.


----------



## Stay Beautiful (Apr 12, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Borough Council candidates also announced
> 
> Depressingly high populist / far right presence between a mixture of the Hartlepool Independent Union (ex Brexit Party), the Veterans and People's Party (hard right Brexiteers and Walter Mittys who have played footsie with the ex-Brexit Party and Tories) and the openly fascist "For Britain" standing in a few wards as well.
> 
> The wheezing half-dead carcass of the Socialist Labour Party has managed a couple of candidates but seem washed up. No NIP unless some of the listed independent folk are affiliated. Of the WPGB, their lack of candidates suggests a smug contentment with meta-level megaphone posturing and youtube diatribes.



Only 2 nominations required to stand now because of Covid. Which means it is fill your boots time for the crackpots and loons!


----------



## Stay Beautiful (Apr 12, 2021)

Speaking of which... why has Jimmy Somerville joined the WPGB? First Morrissey, then Ian Brown... is there no end to the let downs from our heroes? 🙂


----------



## PR1Berske (Apr 12, 2021)

Stay Beautiful said:


> Only 2 nominations required to stand now because of Covid. Which means it is fill your boots time for the crackpots and loons!



On another forum I visit, which is much more psephology focused, the current view is that the reduction in signatures hasn't made that much of a difference to the number of candidates, at least at the first stage of number crunching. 

The need for only 2, rather than 10. will remain until February, incidentally.


----------



## Dom Traynor (Apr 13, 2021)

Glad to see my old mate Moss Boddy is running for Labour again.


----------



## tim (Apr 13, 2021)

Puddy_Tat said:


> as i think i've said on another thread, i have a feeling that johnson and his chums will manufacture a row with the 'dastardly' EU over the legality of the british sausage (or something like that) every time they want a boost in the polls, or to distract from something...


And as the Astra Zeneca row has shown the the unelected EU Commissioners and associated bureaucracy are happy to reciprocate.


----------



## tim (Apr 13, 2021)

Sasaferrato said:


> Short answer, people in general do want to vote for the Tories. I'm 68. Fifty of those years haven't been under a Labour government.


Not where you are in Scotland they don't.

You were a lot younger than I am now when I stated posting here, that's a salutary thin to realise on a Tuesday morning


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 14, 2021)

Loon candidate begins with the statement "I'm not a politician" before going to to prove it with asinine and directionless ramblings on the pandemic. Clearly values business and money over people's lives. 

The so-called "Freedom Alliance" seem a toxic mix of far-right Friedmanite economics and misanthropy. Doubt he'll make three figures given the tightly-packed loonspud right wing microdrama in this by-election.


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 15, 2021)

Tories 4/7 on with the bookies to take Hartlepool. Labour second favourites at 11/8. NIP third at 50/1.


----------



## JTG (Apr 15, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Tories 4/7 on with the bookies to take Hartlepool. Labour second favourites at 11/8. NIP third at 50/1.


Why would Jeremy Corbyn do this?


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 15, 2021)

what?


----------



## JTG (Apr 15, 2021)

Just asking the questions the Guardian's fearless opinion formers will be posing themselves before too long


----------



## Pickman's model (Apr 15, 2021)

JTG said:


> Just asking the questions the Guardian's fearless opinion formers will be posing themselves before too long


The guardian's opinion formers are all poseurs


----------



## two sheds (Apr 15, 2021)

Clear case of betrayal again, bookies in league with the conservatives 









						Labour shrieks 'betrayal' over union poll forecasting Hartlepool rout
					

The London Economic - A poll commissioned by the CWU put Tories on course to take the seat from Labour - Politics




					www.thelondoneconomic.com


----------



## JTG (Apr 15, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Clear case of betrayal again, bookies in league with the conservatives
> 
> 
> 
> ...


See, it's the left's fault


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 21, 2021)

Another calamity for the gaffe-prone Paul Williams.

Having made the protection and expansion of health services a central plank of his campaign, it has emerged that he was actually one of four doctors who co-authored a report in 2013, later adopted in full, _removing_ critical care services from the town.

Of course, as he rightly points out, he was only trying to do the very best to keep as much as possible following swingeing Tory-led coalition cuts. But in a by-election that doesn't matter; only the ability of an attack to stick, and this one will.

The broader picture of is a monomaniac leadership obsessed with choosing candidates acceptable to them, before considering who might be acceptable to the voters, or what tomfoolery the "acceptable" empty suit may have been involved in, in the past. Totally disconnected both from competence and reality.


----------



## brogdale (Apr 21, 2021)

The Gary Gibbon C4News vox pops broadcast last night appeared to be universally of the, now familiar, _I used to be Labour, me...but not anymore _variety.

The LP are fucked if what was b'cast was representative of sentiment on the ground.


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 21, 2021)

Gary's report is here. If it is an accurate picture, Labour are toast. Williams came across poorly, as well.


----------



## ska invita (Apr 21, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Gary's report is here. If it is an accurate picture, Labour are toast. Williams came across poorly, as well.



it would be nice to hear one vox popper being asked WHY


----------



## Smokeandsteam (Apr 21, 2021)

brogdale said:


> The Gary Gibbon C4News vox pops broadcast last night appeared to be universally of the, now familiar, _I used to be Labour, me...but not anymore _variety.
> 
> The LP are fucked if what was b'cast was representative of sentiment on the ground.



I get the sense that many ‘on the left’ still haven’t grasped the extent or depth of the cleavage between the Labour Party and its previous base. It’s not about a specific direction of travel or leader per se (although both feed into it). It is the sense, the firm conclusion, that the Labour Party isn’t for them/is against them. This has been a conclusion 30 years or more in the making. Brexit was the moment of confirmation but it stretches back through Blair/Brown/Miliband and Corbyn. Like in Scotland, there is no foreseeable possibility of these votes ever coming back. It’s basis is simple: the lived reality of these communities.

The vacuum of working class political representation in places like Hartlepool won’t be filled by the Tories for long, but what was a space that many - normally from the right - have attempted to fill is now a gaping chasm.


----------



## ska invita (Apr 21, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Like in Scotland, there is no foreseeable possibility of these votes ever coming back.


Its interesting to see stats on 2017 elections for a possible blip within the long trend, though even those wouldve been tainted by Brexit allegiance to a certain extent.
I posted such graphs for key red wall seats but i cant remember what thread it was on....ah found them

























I think those votes can be won with a sustained socialist platform


----------



## MickiQ (Apr 21, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Gary's report is here. If it is an accurate picture, Labour are toast. Williams came across poorly, as well.



The two old dears with the LibDem candidate were brilliant, you could tell they fighting the urge to tell him to just go away and annoy someone else.  There was one good point made by the Reform candidate of all people. If they vote for Labour then they will definitely get absolutely sweet FA for it.  Vote for the Tories and they will still probably get sweet FA but there is a possibility of a few crumbs. They might as well vote for that.


----------



## William of Walworth (Apr 21, 2021)

I've always thought that vox pops are the *very* worst form of TV 'analysis' during any elections anywhere,, of whatever type  

Mainly because I strongly suspect jounalists _deliberately_ search for the loudest and 'angriest' voices .....


----------



## brogdale (Apr 22, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> I've always thought that vox pops ae the *very* worst form of TV 'analysis' during any elections anywhere,, of whatever type
> 
> Mainly because I strongly suspect jounalists _deliberately_ search for the loudest and 'angriest' voices .....


Yes, that may be the case, but I think the reality is that they can only speak to the folk that are on the high street when they’re there, which is invariably the during the working day/working week. This obviously has the capacity to skew the sample towards older, more conservative voters.

But the problem for the LP is that it is that cohort that tends to vote in greater numbers.


----------



## tony.c (Apr 22, 2021)

Hartlepool by-election candidate is convicted sex offender.


			https://www.uk.news.yahoo.com/convicted-sex-offender-standing-mp-hartlepool-081146159.html


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 22, 2021)

> He said he initially planned to tell voters about his convictions but "got a bit frightened".


----------



## AmateurAgitator (Apr 22, 2021)

tony.c said:


> Hartlepool by-election candidate is convicted sex offender.
> 
> 
> https://www.uk.news.yahoo.com/convicted-sex-offender-standing-mp-hartlepool-081146159.html


Not able to view the link


----------



## fishfinger (Apr 22, 2021)

Count Cuckula said:


> Not able to view the link


Here's the text:



> A convicted sex offender is planning to stand for election as an MP in an upcoming by-election.
> 
> Christopher Killick is standing as an independent candidate in the Hartlepool by-election on 6 May – but didn't initially reveal his conviction and the fact he's on the sex offenders' register to potential voters.
> 
> ...


----------



## MickiQ (Apr 22, 2021)

I'm not convinced by his protestations of remorse


----------



## AmateurAgitator (Apr 22, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> I'm not convinced by his protestations of remorse


Neither am I


----------



## killer b (Apr 22, 2021)

jesus. It's difficult to believe that's a real thing. He's clearly mad, but also a cunt. Wouldn't be surprised if someone takes it upon themselves to do him some serious damage over the next few weeks.


----------



## andysays (Apr 22, 2021)

fishfinger said:


> Here's the text:


If he'd moved a bit further north he could have stood as an Alba candidate and would have fit right in...


----------



## vanya (Apr 22, 2021)

Entertaining article on what wankers the Alba party are. 









						WEEKLY WANKER #083: THE ALBA PARTY
					

About 30 mins before Alex Salmond was due to speak last week, we were raking around the Electoral Commission website (like cool people do) and came across a strange, new registration, “The Al…




					athousandflowers.net


----------



## steveseagull (Apr 23, 2021)

Saudi Paul hits the campaign trail


----------



## ska invita (Apr 23, 2021)

steveseagull said:


> Saudi Paul hits the campaign trail



so cynical, amazing
We're Lay-buuur, we're gonna score one more than you! Lay-Bur!


----------



## chilango (Apr 23, 2021)

steveseagull said:


> Saudi Paul hits the campaign trail




This _will_ end well....


----------



## Whagwan (Apr 23, 2021)

It's not even a decent photoshop.


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 23, 2021)

It's a reverse Thornberry


----------



## steveseagull (Apr 23, 2021)




----------



## Wilf (Apr 23, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> I get the sense that many ‘on the left’ still haven’t grasped the extent or depth of the cleavage between the Labour Party and its previous base. It’s not about a specific direction of travel or leader per se (although both feed into it). It is the sense, the firm conclusion, that the Labour Party isn’t for them/is against them. This has been a conclusion 30 years or more in the making. Brexit was the moment of confirmation but it stretches back through Blair/Brown/Miliband and Corbyn. Like in Scotland, there is no foreseeable possibility of these votes ever coming back. It’s basis is simple: the lived reality of these communities.
> 
> The vacuum of working class political representation in places like Hartlepool won’t be filled by the Tories for long, but what was a space that many - normally from the right - have attempted to fill is now a gaping chasm.


Exactly as you say, Brexit as confirmation.   If you just take one moment, well several months of it, May's government floundering and faffing about, failing to deliver brexit.  In some ways, that was the ultimate _tory _failure, a brexit referendum to solve the party's own divisions. It didn't and it dragged on and on. But, from memory, Labour managed only single digit leads at the moment of slow death and inaction for the tories. Labour had nothing to say and could only play games, trying to build voting numbers to bring May down. No sense that this was all about trust, promises and having a relationship with voters, the thing they had dribbled away for decades. All it took for the whole pantomine to fall apart was some twat to come along and say GET BREXIT DONE.  That's how irrelevant Labour had become by 2019.


----------



## Wilf (Apr 23, 2021)

killer b said:


> jesus. It's difficult to believe that's a real thing. He's clearly mad, but also a cunt. Wouldn't be surprised if someone takes it upon themselves to do him some serious damage over the next few weeks.


Isn't it more usual for sex offenders to stand for the major parties?


----------



## Wilf (Apr 23, 2021)

steveseagull said:


> Saudi Paul hits the campaign trail



'_All Leaflets Pre-Shagged by Sur Kieth'_


----------



## Shechemite (Apr 23, 2021)

What’s the Saudi connection?


----------



## kebabking (Apr 23, 2021)

MadeInBedlam said:


> What’s the Saudi connection?



He accepted an all expenses paid research/PR trip to Saudi and came back saying that he'd seen lots of 'progressive' stuff.

He probably said other stuff they don't quote, but politics is a rough old game, and if you don't want to be quoted saying stupid things, don't say stupid things...


----------



## killer b (Apr 23, 2021)

Wilf said:


> Isn't it more usual for sex offenders to stand for the major parties?


If you think the Lib Dems are a major party


----------



## Shechemite (Apr 23, 2021)

kebabking said:


> if you don't want to be quoted saying stupid things, don't say stupid things...



and that’s why my political career was doomed from the off

probably worse that he went on the all expenses paid trip to a proper cunt of a regime in the first place IMO


----------



## steveseagull (Apr 23, 2021)

Why can't things not be absolutely weird these days


----------



## ska invita (Apr 24, 2021)

"He'll put police back on the streets"...well I guess he's got Starmer doing patrols, there is that


----------



## DownwardDog (Apr 25, 2021)

I reckon I'm friends with 50+ inmates of Hartlepool on FB. The ONLY candidate I've seen mentioned in positive terms is the independent Sam Lee. Make of that what you will...


----------



## brogdale (Apr 25, 2021)

I'm sure that Labour's opponents will be "intensely relaxed" about this particular intervention...


----------



## DownwardDog (Apr 25, 2021)

PM was not widely detested during his time as MP. In contrast to those that came after he (or more likely his staff) were absolutely assiduous about constituency work and 'dog shit' politics.


----------



## Jeremiah18.17 (Apr 25, 2021)

Apparently the candidate of the utter tossers of the SDP has been riding around Hartlepool in an armoured reconnaissance vehicle (that looks like a mini tank) with the tosspot’s tosser Rod Liddle. 💩🤡


----------



## JTG (Apr 25, 2021)




----------



## Jeremiah18.17 (Apr 25, 2021)

Aaagh my eyes, my eyes .....


----------



## magneze (Apr 25, 2021)

JTG said:


>



With delusions like that Labour will be full Qanon by the next election.


----------



## likesfish (Apr 25, 2021)

Jeremiah18.17 said:


> View attachment 264936
> Aaagh my eyes, my eyes .....



apparently the CAV get really really upset if you refer to their scimitar as a "little tank" in your best allo allo accent so don't do that


----------



## MickiQ (Apr 25, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I'm sure that Labour's opponents will be "intensely relaxed" about this particular intervention...



I remember watching him on the telly once and thinking he looks a bit like what I would expect the devil too, After about a moment I realised he didn't seem to blink and as I thought that he looked at me (the camera of course but it looked like he was looking straight at me) and blinked.
It definitely creeped me out a bit, I'm reassured to note that he appears to have aged.


----------



## Dom Traynor (Apr 25, 2021)

It's true that PM was a surprisingly good constituency MP and is still remembered fondly by some in t'Pool. I doubt it will make any difference though.


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 25, 2021)

Jeremiah18.17 said:


> View attachment 264936
> Aaagh my eyes, my eyes .....



Military fantasists attempt to channel “Dr” David Owen in Sarajevo...


----------



## Serge Forward (Apr 25, 2021)

Reminds me of this


----------



## brogdale (Apr 26, 2021)

Unlikely to change any minds determined to vote for the vermin, but quite funny that their candidate was cast as a "North Yorkshire farmer".

Tax haven barrister with farmhouse B&B property as part of investment portfolio doesn't quite have the same ring to it!   


Tory Hartlepool candidate spent decade away - including time in Cayman Islands


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 26, 2021)




----------



## Party04 (Apr 26, 2021)

Hope Hartlepool United FC regain their place in the football league. I'd be delighted for Jeff Stelling!


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 26, 2021)

Party04 said:


> Hope Hartlepool United FC regain their place in the football league. I'd be delighted for Jeff Stelling!


 I one got hit on the head with a bottle that was thrown at their ground when I went to watch Darlington play there when I was a kid


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 27, 2021)

I did a double take at Houchen- striker Keith was quite a public Thatcherite Tory when a player in the 1980s/90s. (Keith is best remembered for scoring a penalty for York City that knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup in 1985, and also a goal for Coventry against Spurs in the 1987 FA Cup final). He played nearly 300 times as a pro for Hartlepool in the lower leagues and once sacked a popular goalkeeper for being a "fat slob" when a spell as player-manager proved to be ill-advised in the mid 90s. It was one of the reasons he was hounded out of the club.

Of course it's Tory Ben, the "Mayor of Teesside". No relation. Hopefully there's some useful pub quiz material for people who made it this far with this post, though.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 27, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> I did a double take at Houchen- striker Keith was quite a public Thatcherite Tory when a player in the 1980s/90s. (Keith is best remembered for scoring a penalty for York City that knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup in 1985, and also a goal for Coventry against Spurs in the 1987 FA Cup final). He played nearly 300 times as a pro for Hartlepool in the lower leagues and once sacked a popular goalkeeper for being a "fat slob" when a spell as player-manager proved to be ill-advised in the mid 90s. It was one of the reasons he was hounded out of the club.
> 
> Of course it's Tory Ben, the "Mayor of Teesside". No relation. Hopefully there's some useful pub quiz material for people who made it this far with this post, though.


Darlington , which is a spit away , had the only English branch of of the Workers Solidarity Movement as I recall . Wonder if they are still about ?


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 27, 2021)

Heard Mitch Pileggi moved on to form a bitcoin startup and has made his peace with Capital these days.


----------



## splonkydoo (Apr 28, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Darlington , which is a spit away , had the only English branch of of the Workers Solidarity Movement as I recall . Wonder if they are still about ?



I wonder if I'm the only ex-member on these boards, but it's the first I've heard of this unless it's some elaborate joke.


----------



## DownwardDog (Apr 28, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> I did a double take at Houchen- striker Keith was quite a public Thatcherite Tory when a player in the 1980s/90s. (Keith is best remembered for scoring a penalty for York City that knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup in 1985, and also a goal for Coventry against Spurs in the 1987 FA Cup final). He played nearly 300 times as a pro for Hartlepool in the lower leagues and once sacked a popular goalkeeper for being a "fat slob" when a spell as player-manager proved to be ill-advised in the mid 90s. It was one of the reasons he was hounded out of the club.
> 
> Of course it's Tory Ben, the "Mayor of Teesside". No relation. Hopefully there's some useful pub quiz material for people who made it this far with this post, though.



I remember him shouting at somebody in the crowd "DO YOU WANT TO FUCKIN' PLAY?" after the spectator had voiced their displeasure at the team's performance. The crowd (all 1,500 of them ) went "OOOOOOOOOO!" and started making the "handbags" gesture.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 28, 2021)

splonkydoo said:


> I wonder if I'm the only ex-member on these boards, but it's the first I've heard of this unless it's some elaborate joke.


There were a couple of members (from Ireland) on here a few years ago. I'm sure Darlington was mentioned. Are WSM still going?


----------



## AmateurAgitator (Apr 28, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> There were a couple of members (from Ireland) on here a few years ago. I'm sure Darlington was mentioned. Are WSM still going?


I believe they are, in Ireland, yes.


----------



## splonkydoo (Apr 28, 2021)

Count Cuckula said:


> I believe they are, in Ireland, yes.



Vastly reduced + moribund. Limping on but functionally it doesn't really exist outside a tiny Dublin membership now afaik. A real pity it imploded, about 5 or 6 years back.


----------



## splonkydoo (Apr 28, 2021)

The answer is kind of 'no' but technically 'yes' to your question!


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 28, 2021)

splonkydoo said:


> I wonder if I'm the only ex-member on these boards, but it's the first I've heard of this unless it's some elaborate joke.



Definitely an elaborate joke that may or may not have involved a well-known member (scroll down to "Can't believe it")

anyway, back to


----------



## Sprocket. (Apr 28, 2021)

Party04 said:


> Hope Hartlepool United FC regain their place in the football league. I'd be delighted for Jeff Stelling!



If they do I hope Stelling releases a remix cover of this classic.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 28, 2021)

Thinking about the WSM issue in Darlington  made me wonder whatever happened to the ex Marxists for Griffin external tendency around the BNP who advocated for a left wing version?


----------



## JTG (Apr 30, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Thinking about the WSM issue in Darlington  made me wonder whatever happened to the ex Marxists for Griffin external tendency around the BNP who advocated for a left wing version?


Blue Labour probably


----------



## steeplejack (Apr 30, 2021)

Ex-no.10 policy bod gets in a bit of pre-whinging about the expected result. Actually the Tories could do worse than just print this out and do a leaflet drop with it.


----------



## The39thStep (Apr 30, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Ex-no.10 policy bod gets in a bit of pre-whinging about the expected result. Actually the Tories could do worse than just print this out and do a leaflet drop with it.



Can’t believe that there is anything aside from dragons outside of the remainer south


----------



## Wilf (Apr 30, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> I did a double take at Houchen- striker Keith was quite a public Thatcherite Tory when a player in the 1980s/90s. (Keith is best remembered for scoring a penalty for York City that knocked Arsenal out of the FA Cup in 1985, and also a goal for Coventry against Spurs in the 1987 FA Cup final). He played nearly 300 times as a pro for Hartlepool in the lower leagues and once sacked a popular goalkeeper for being a "fat slob" when a spell as player-manager proved to be ill-advised in the mid 90s. It was one of the reasons he was hounded out of the club.
> 
> Of course it's Tory Ben, the "Mayor of Teesside". No relation. Hopefully there's some useful pub quiz material for people who made it this far with this post, though.


I'm not a great fan of voting, but I'll be making an exception on Thursday to try and get rid of Houchen.  A tory mayor on Teesside puts all heaven in a rage.


----------



## JTG (May 4, 2021)

Survation Hartlepool poll of 301 people has:

Tories 50%
Labour 33%
Thelma Walker 6%
Sam Lee 6%
Greens 3%

Nobody else breaking the 1% mark


----------



## brogdale (May 4, 2021)

JTG said:


> Survation Hartlepool poll of 301 people has:
> 
> Tories 50%
> Labour 33%
> ...


Included in that polling:



Which suggests that it's not just the 'logical' preference of pork-barrel promises over mush; those sampled actually prefer Johnson.


----------



## platinumsage (May 4, 2021)

That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. He didn't get an 80-seat majority by relying on the likes of Witney and North East Somerset.


----------



## JTG (May 4, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. He didn't get an 80-seat majority by relying on the likes of Witney and North East Somerset.


(NE Somerset was Labour on its pre-2010 boundaries)


----------



## JTG (May 4, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Included in that polling:
> 
> View attachment 266303
> 
> Which suggests that it's not just the 'logical' preference of pork-barrel promises over mush; those sampled actually prefer Johnson.


Johnson has been up there several times so they obviously reckon they're in with a very decent chance of winning

Can't imagine why the Remain bloke responsible for Labour's disastrous Brexit policy is unpopular in a massive Leave area


----------



## brogdale (May 4, 2021)

platinumsage said:


> That shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. He didn't get an 80-seat majority by relying on the likes of Witney and North East Somerset.


To some extent, but plenty has happened since 2019 that might have affected such popularity.


----------



## ska invita (May 4, 2021)




----------



## killer b (May 4, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Ex-no.10 policy bod gets in a bit of pre-whinging about the expected result. Actually the Tories could do worse than just print this out and do a leaflet drop with it.



This guy was apparently an advisor to Theresa May, why would the tories want to broadcast his opinions to the voters of Hartlepool?


----------



## PR1Berske (May 4, 2021)




----------



## brogdale (May 4, 2021)

Yep; doorstep telling LP they're fucked...


----------



## andysays (May 4, 2021)

ska invita said:


> View attachment 266305


Is that unexpected as in "complete bollocks I've just made up"?

Although ad someone mentioned the other, it's getting increasingly difficult to distinguish reality from attempts to satirise it, so maybe it's 100% true.


----------



## ska invita (May 4, 2021)

andysays said:


> Is that unexpected as in "complete bollocks I've just made up"?
> 
> Although ad someone mentioned the other, it's getting increasingly difficult to distinguish reality from attempts to satirise it, so maybe it's 100% true.


its satire, i just made it, though im not trying to be funny, its depressing


----------



## splonkydoo (May 4, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Yep; doorstep telling LP they're fucked...
> 
> View attachment 266313



Worst GE election performance since 1935? Really?


----------



## William of Walworth (May 4, 2021)

I hate seeing polls like this 
Just caught up with these latest ones.

I know we have to confront the realities, but people who actively prefer the Tories, particularly in the North but anywhere really, are just cunts in my book 

And giving Johnson favourable ratings? WTF??  

(And yes, I *do* also agree with everyone talking about the reasons why Starmer isn't fucking helping either. It's more that I just hate the Tories in general and Johnson in particular  )

</gut-reaction post  >


----------



## DownwardDog (May 4, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> I hate seeing polls like this
> Just caught up with these latest ones.
> 
> I know we have to confront the realities, but people who actively prefer the Tories, particulalry in the North but anywhere really, are just cunts in my book
> ...



There a A LOT of local factors in play here. The local Labour Party organisation and Labour run council has been a corrupt shambles for decades but reached its nadir in the SCABs era.


----------



## William of Walworth (May 4, 2021)

DownwardDog said:


> There a A LOT of local factors in play here. The local Labour Party organisation and Labour run council has been a corrupt shambles for decades but reached its nadir in the SCABs era.



I can believe that very well -- I'm obviously not familiar with local conditions there 

But however dreadful Labour may be up there, that's *no* excuse for giving Johnson, or the Tories, favourable ratings 

(I did say mine was a gut-reaction post anyway!)


----------



## Knotted (May 4, 2021)

splonkydoo said:


> Worst GE election performance since 1935? Really?



In terms of seats won. In terms of share of vote it's the worst election performance since 2015 which was substantially worse and the 2010 result was even worse than that.

That's not to say that the 2019 result was good or even acceptable. It's just that Labour have been absolutely stuffed for more than a decade now and with UKIP/Brexit Party out of the picture it's clearly visible.


----------



## Smangus (May 4, 2021)

Hartlepool will kick Labours arse , no doubt.  It might be the wake up call it needs or that might disappear in a load of platitudes about vaccine bounces.


----------



## steeplejack (May 4, 2021)

Corbyn to blame according to twitter


----------



## Beermoth (May 4, 2021)

Any other parachuted-in Labour candidate would be 20 points ahead...


----------



## hitmouse (May 4, 2021)

Smangus said:


> Hartlepool will kick Labours arse , no doubt.  It might be the wake up call it needs or that might disappear in a load of platitudes about vaccine bounces.


I'm sure lessons will be learned...


----------



## Pickman's model (May 4, 2021)

hitmouse said:


> I'm sure lessons will be learned...
> 
> View attachment 266337


----------



## Pickman's model (May 4, 2021)

Beermoth said:


> Any other parachuted-in Labour candidate would be 20 points ahead...


this one would be doing better if he'd been flung out of a plane without a working parachute


----------



## tommers (May 4, 2021)

The wriggling has started already. Gonna be fucking hilarious to watch them all adjusting their worldview to make sense of any other leader not being 20 pts ahead.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 4, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Corbyn to blame according to twitter
> View attachment 266332


when starmer is no more than the dwindling sound of a flush, when there have been three subsequent leaders of the labour party, 'jeremy corbyn' will still be the bogeyman the right of the party use to terrify


----------



## brogdale (May 4, 2021)

tommers said:


> The wriggling has started already. Gonna be fucking hilarious to watch them all adjusting their worldview to make sense of any other leader not being 20 pts ahead.


----------



## tommers (May 4, 2021)

brogdale said:


> View attachment 266446


But they're so electable.


----------



## two sheds (May 4, 2021)

Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
					

Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time




					www.theguardian.com
				






> Labour insiders said polling from its ground campaign in the town showed only about 40% of the party’s previous supporters had pledged to vote for its candidate, Paul Williams.



So it's not just the unions with their negative polling who've betrayed Starmer, it's now his own party insiders


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 4, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Labour set for huge election defeat in Hartlepool, internal polling suggests
> 
> 
> Exclusive: Party’s own figures show only 40% of previous supporters pledge to back its candidate this time
> ...



Kieth must be yearning for the heady days of that CWU poll. Their poll only showed Labour losing a working class seat that it has held for 60 years. This leak by disgruntled staffers shows Labour being _eviscerated_. The possible loss of Sunderland and Durham too - with their deep rooted links to the Labour and trade union movement - is, frankly, mind bogglingly bad.


----------



## ska invita (May 4, 2021)

brogdale said:


> View attachment 266446


quite funny


----------



## two sheds (May 4, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Kieth must be yearning for the heady days of that CWU poll. Their poll only showed Labour losing a working class seat that it has held for 60 years. This leak by disgruntled staffers shows Labour being _eviscerated_. The possible loss of Sunderland and Durham too - with their deep rooted links to the Labour and trade union movement - is, frankly, mind bogglingly bad.


Fucking Corbyn


----------



## brogdale (May 4, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Kieth must be yearning for the heady days of that CWU poll. Their poll only showed Labour losing a working class seat that it has held for 60 years. This leak by disgruntled staffers shows Labour being _eviscerated_. The possible loss of Sunderland and Durham too - with their deep rooted links to the Labour and trade union movement - is, frankly, mind bogglingly bad.


All rather dismal excuses, but 1.30 onwards is particularly awkward...


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 4, 2021)

brogdale said:


> All rather dismal excuses, but 1.30 onwards is particularly awkward...



Indeed. He also missed his leadership of Remain for Labour in his list of, rather nebulous, achievements


----------



## PR1Berske (May 4, 2021)

This might be best put in a new thread, but while it's fresh in my mind. 

Labour have yet to have their "Tory 1997" moment. The Conservatives were all but wiped out in 1997 and took years to fathom what they were and where they should focus their attention. Now it's complex, because UKIP et al. influenced them to a greater degree than much internally, but still, from Cameron's election as leader onwards they've become a successful electoral force. 

Labour seem to have deliberately ignored any opportunity to do the same. They've lost every GE since 2010, and would appear to be on the verge of continuing to lose working class support across heartland areas of England. 

Somebody, somewhere, needs to decide what Labour means. And if Hartlepool answers "meaningless" to a question of that nature, god help Labour if they don't sort themselves out.


----------



## Wilf (May 4, 2021)

Suppose all politicians sound pretty whiney when they are way behind and in the headlights, but boy does he sound whiney.   That look in his eyes hinted at clinical depression as well.


----------



## DJWrongspeed (May 5, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> This might be best put in a new thread, but while it's fresh in my mind.
> 
> Labour have yet to have their "Tory 1997" moment. The Conservatives were all but wiped out in 1997 and took years to fathom what they were and where they should focus their attention. Now it's complex, because UKIP et al. influenced them to a greater degree than much internally, but still, from Cameron's election as leader onwards they've become a successful electoral force.
> 
> ...



If you changed the leader and candidate would Labour still be able to win? These are unusual times but there's obviously a shift going on. Would say Lisa Nandy have faired any better?


----------



## killer b (May 5, 2021)

Wilf said:


> That look in his eyes hinted at clinical depression as well.


what.


----------



## The39thStep (May 5, 2021)

DJWrongspeed said:


> If you changed the leader and candidate would Labour still be able to win? These are unusual times but there's obviously a shift going on. Would say Lisa Nandy have faired any better?


Lisa Nandy comes across as a concerned HR manager desperately seeking redundancies and wage cuts that are diversity friendly . At weekends she prob helps out in a Friends of the Park group.


----------



## bellaozzydog (May 5, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> The continuation SDP have nominated David Bettney, an ex-serviceman, here.



the use of “ex-serviceman” as a populist USP fucking enrages me.

you may as well say “John Smith, adequate former trombone player”


----------



## not-bono-ever (May 5, 2021)

Servicemen have big resonance in the NE as virtually everyone has family connections to the forces


----------



## Knotted (May 5, 2021)

I'm just amazed the SDP are still about.


----------



## bellaozzydog (May 5, 2021)

not-bono-ever said:


> Servicemen have big resonance in the NE as virtually everyone has family connections to the forces



NE has plenty of brass bands also


----------



## DotCommunist (May 5, 2021)

this is a product of longer term decline as much as recent tone-deaf remainerism in particular. Thats combined with making it quite clear to the new young/returning old left vote that they can fuck right off. To my eyes they're acting like a party still coasting on the back of a legendary landslide rather than clapped out wankers selling means tested ideas that shouldn't have survived 2008. 'Oh just parachute this Doctor in, they love a doctor and they'll vote for us out of reflex anyway'.


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 5, 2021)

DotCommunist said:


> this is a product of longer term decline as much as recent tone-deaf remainerism in particular.



Bang on the money. Labour has been losing millions of its core working class vote over a sustained period of time. From Blair’s high point in 1997 over 5 million votes, largely working class, have been pissed down the drain.

In a seat like Hartlepool the new reservoirs of support that has offset this decomposition aren’t present in huge numbers: no university for a start. Even among the new constituency, as you suggest, Labour are palpably shedding support as Jezza’s ‘legacy’ is disappeared and bland centrism re-emerges

For anyone who thinks this is inevitably temporary and that Labour is too big to fail....









						The Rise and Fall of French Socialism
					

France was once the heartland of revolution. Today, its left is battered, and its far right is rising. To understand why, we have to look at François Mitterrand’s socialist government’s turn from radical reform to neoliberal austerity in the 1980s.




					www.jacobinmag.com
				




Someone posted up an interview with Kieth on Channel 4 last night. After a disastrous few minutes of dribble the interviewer asked him if Labour was committed to a Biden style programme of investment (with all of its contingencies). His response was an unfathomable sequence of triangulation.

Scotland is gone. Working class seats across the deindustrialised towns of England are gone. Both if not for good then for the long term. The new core vote is increasingly alienated.


----------



## [62] (May 5, 2021)

The bit I don't get is why with Brexit 'done' people in Hartlepool are still going to vote for the Tories and Johnson in particular.

I don't really know the area that well, but I'm guessing it's very largely Anglo-Saxon white and still mostly working class? Is it a Trump-style Culture Wars thing, whereby they see Johnson as a media personality, a warts and all type bloke, and identify with him rather than either the 'sandal-wearing Islington vegetarian' of Corbyn or the bland middle-classness of Starmer?

For all the talk of Labour losing the working class, it is noticable that they're still hanging on to that vote in the cities and larger urban areas.


----------



## magneze (May 5, 2021)

Could it be that people are simply not voting instead?


----------



## The39thStep (May 5, 2021)

Knotted said:


> I'm just amazed the SDP are still about.


Been working with Paul Embery and on his book and some stuff with Spiked.


----------



## The39thStep (May 5, 2021)

[62] said:


> The bit I don't get is why with Brexit 'done' people in Hartlepool are still going to vote for the Tories and Johnson in particular.
> 
> I don't really know the area that well, but I'm guessing it's very largely Anglo-Saxon white and still mostly working class? Is it a Trump-style Culture Wars thing, whereby they see Johnson as a media personality, a warts and all type bloke, and identify with him rather than either the 'sandal-wearing Islington vegetarian' of Corbyn or the bland middle-classness of Starmer?
> 
> For all the talk of Labour losing the working class, it is noticable that they're still hanging on to that vote in the cities and larger urban areas.


I'm not exactly sure about the ancestral makeup of Hartlepool but I am absolutely positive that Anglo Saxonism has little bearing on voting intentions.


----------



## belboid (May 5, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Been working with Paul Embery and on his book and some stuff with Spiked.


I can’t work out if this is a joke or not


----------



## [62] (May 5, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> I'm not exactly sure about the ancestral makeup of Hartlepool but I am absolutely positive that Anglo Saxonism has little bearing on voting intentions.



No, could have phrased that better, but a white population with a low proportion from white migrant backgrounds.


----------



## Knotted (May 5, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Been working with Paul Embery and on his book and some stuff with Spiked.



Blimey.


----------



## vanya (May 5, 2021)

Labour's had it coming for years. 









						On Entitlement
					

When I was elected secretary of Stoke Central CLP 10 years ago, one of my first acts was to visit Geoff Bagnall, then general secretary of ...




					averypublicsociologist.blogspot.com


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 5, 2021)

[62] said:


> The bit I don't get is why with Brexit 'done' people in Hartlepool are still going to vote for the Tories and Johnson in particular.
> 
> I don't really know the area that well, but I'm guessing it's very largely Anglo-Saxon white and still mostly working class? Is it a Trump-style Culture Wars thing, whereby they see Johnson as a media personality, a warts and all type bloke, and identify with him rather than either the 'sandal-wearing Islington vegetarian' of Corbyn or the bland middle-classness of Starmer?
> 
> For all the talk of Labour losing the working class, it is noticable that they're still hanging on to that vote in the cities and larger urban areas.



On your first point how did you imagine things might play out? Working class voters would lend their votes to the Tories and then dutifully trot back into the fold once Brexit was 'done'? That type of scenario, always an unlikely one,  overlooks how the issue has been _understood_ by some. Which is that not only was Labour's position a nonsense, but that it was both symbolic and confirmatory of a trend and a long run and growing cleavage between the Party and its previous working class base. As such it was a moment of departure. The breaking point. The mutual turning of backs with no turning round that had been coming for _years _and over matters - jobs, housing, the general fucking state of the place, the lack of opportunity for youth, the sense of being erased and/or sneered at - where Labour has been in local office and supported at election time for years.

On your latter point, I am not convinced that Labour is hanging on to that vote. It was a vote that mobilised and fused around a specific set of ideas and appeals embodied by Corbyn. it can be specifically periodised. As such that vote can easily fizzle out or diverge back into other parties if it not developed and nurtured. And the signs are that Starmer shows none of the energy or has a basic clue of how to 'hang on' to that vote either.


----------



## muscovyduck (May 5, 2021)

vanya said:


> Labour's had it coming for years.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


that blog has a really nice background image. just sort of satisfying to stare at


----------



## [62] (May 5, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> On your first point how did you imagine things might play out? Working class voters would lend their votes to the Tories and then dutifully trot back into the fold once Brexit was 'done'? That type of scenario, always an unlikely one,  overlooks how the issue has been _understood_ by some. Which is that not only was Labour's position a nonsense, but that it was both symbolic and confirmatory of a trend and a long run and growing cleavage between the Party and its previous working class base. As such it was a moment of departure. The breaking point. The mutual turning of backs with no turning round that had been coming for _years _and over matters - jobs, housing, the general fucking state of the place, the lack of opportunity for youth, the sense of being erased and/or sneered at - where Labour has been in local office and supported at election time for years.



I didn't imagine anything, not least that people would return to Labour. My question is why they are now voting *for* the Tories. Tories lead by archetypal Tory. Twice. Your post is more why they're not voting Labour.


----------



## JTG (May 5, 2021)

DotCommunist said:


> this is a product of longer term decline as much as recent tone-deaf remainerism in particular. Thats combined with making it quite clear to the new young/returning old left vote that they can fuck right off. To my eyes they're acting like a party still coasting on the back of a legendary landslide rather than clapped out wankers selling means tested ideas that shouldn't have survived 2008. 'Oh just parachute this Doctor in, they love a doctor and they'll vote for us out of reflex anyway'.


Yeah, it's just continuing the steady decline that's been occurring since 1997, interrupted only by that blip in 2017.
Wrt the left/youth vote, it may be worth looking at first pref votes for Khan, Rees etc. They'll win anyway but I'm guessing that there'll be quite a bit of protest voting backed with a second pref for them.
Even in Hartlepool etc, that left/Corbynite etc vote that's been told to fuck off will be worth a few points off the vote. Not the whole story by a long shot but socialists do exist even in the Red Wall these days


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 5, 2021)

[62] said:


> I didn't imagine anything, not least that people would return to Labour. My question is why they are now voting *for* the Tories. Tories lead by archetypal Tory. Twice. Your post is more why they're not voting Labour.



The evidence from the polls/leaks suggests that a significant percentage of the Labour vote didn’t vote Labour last time and isn’t voting Labour this time either. That’s what the leak by their disgruntled staffers can be summarised as telling us. The result will tell us how many of those voters, who went Tory last time to ‘get Brexit done’ rather than simply not voting, have repeated the act a second time.

My guess is that, regardless, the segment that went LP/BP/Tory will decline and will continue to do so between now and the next GE. The real story of many communities is not ‘the culture war’ or new Tory converts: it’s the drift away from liberal democracy and a gaping absence of political representation.


----------



## andysays (May 5, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> ...On your latter point, I am not convinced that Labour is hanging on to that vote. It was a vote that mobilised and fused around a specific set of ideas and appeals embodied by Corbyn. it can be specifically periodised. As such that vote can easily fizzle out or diverge back into other parties if it not developed and nurtured. And the signs are that Starmer shows none of the energy or has a basic clue of how to 'hang on' to that vote either.


I suspect that the Labour vote is being eroded to some extent in the  cities and larger urban areas that @[62] is referring to, though perhaps in different ways and for not quite the same reasons as in the former heartlands of the post industrial north.

Areas like Tottenham in London have seen increasing support for the Greens, for instance, who in some ways can be seen as more radical and more relevant than Labour to a section of the population which might previously have voted Labour under Tony Blair.

This group is probably more middle class than traditional Labour voters, but my point is that they're losing significant numbers of them too, as well as the traditional wc voters.


----------



## The39thStep (May 5, 2021)

[62] said:


> No, could have phrased that better, but a white population with a low proportion from white migrant backgrounds.


So what ?


----------



## brogdale (May 6, 2021)

Just for info/reference...


----------



## PR1Berske (May 6, 2021)

planetgeli said:


> Not a chance in hell of Labour holding that.


Will you be proven right?!


----------



## steeplejack (May 6, 2021)

Even if Labour win- somehow, they lose. If they win it will be by max 1,000 votes leaving Sur Kieth desperately trying to present a near-humiliation as business as usual, facing down the pundits, shaking lawyerly hand firmly on the bristling quill pen of leadership.

A Tory victory- well, you know how that goes. Screeching headlines for days about "crisis talks" at Labour HQ and leaks from poisonous watsapp / telegram chats being disparaging about a hopeless, out of touch leadership and sclerotic party machine. Meanwhile Johnson gets to bounce around the place like Mr Blobby on powerrful amphetamines, with the added bonus of not having to see any of his families for a whole 48 hours.

If the saintly "Dr Paul" were a Lancaster bomber at least two engines would be on fire and the crew would either be dead or taking to their parachutes. Only the candidate himself, half dead, googles smashed, face smeared in blood, will be half alive, desperately trying to keep the old wreck airborne.

Very likely a "missing presumed dead" telegram will be sent out in a few days time.


----------



## DownwardDog (May 6, 2021)

[62] said:


> I didn't imagine anything, not least that people would return to Labour. My question is why they are now voting *for* the Tories. Tories lead by archetypal Tory. Twice. Your post is more why they're not voting Labour.



Because Johnson tells the English a story about themselves that they like. That they are special and are worthy of great reward having been put upon by outsiders.

This resonates particularly well in Hartlepool due to an older and culturally introspective population that experienced the deindustrialisation of 1960 - 1990. People also have a curious and utterly misplaced civic pride in the place. They know, as uncontestable fact, that decades of Labour MPs and councils have done nothing for "the town" but enable its decline and they are now going to vote tory as what they see as the only other option.


----------



## Sprocket. (May 6, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> Very likely a "missing presumed dead" telegram will be sent out in a few days time.


Or “killed in inaction”


----------



## steeplejack (May 6, 2021)

DownwardDog said:


> People also have a curious and utterly misplaced civic pride in the place.



a wee bit sneery / strange: H'pool has come on a lot in the last twenty years from what it used to be in the late 80s/90s. It's not a bad town to visit for a couple of days now, plenty to do around.



DownwardDog said:


> They know, as uncontestable fact, that decades of Labour MPs and councils have done nothing for "the town" but enable its decline and they are now going to vote tory as what they see as the only other option.



Strangely Mandelson is quite well remembered / appreciated and a lot of the improvements date from his time as MP. However yes the local CLP is a toxic binfire and has been fragmenting for quite a while. Hence the number of small localist / Bonapartist groupuscules that have emerged in the last while.

Hartlepool is quite a specific electorate- working-class fiercely Brit nationalist / local, with an armed services / British legion culture firmly embedded. Quite similar in some ways to monocultures / ex-monocultures like Barrow, Workington, Blyth. Silvertongued lawyers and a local doctor stereotype from a low budget 1980s soap opera were never likely to play well. If the Tories had selected a working class candidate with an armed services background we wouldn't have even the slight doubts we have about the result today.


----------



## PR1Berske (May 6, 2021)

There's definitely a reason why the local council had Veterans Party and For Britain members. They attract a working class and "in my day" voting base. Not necessarily racist, even if the parties themselves are. Just a voter that doesn't feel represented by the left even when their demographics would suggest so.


----------



## ChrisD (May 6, 2021)

Anyone know when the result is likely ?  Considering all the various elections today I’m surprised there’s no tedious BBC election programme.  How do find out results?


----------



## brogdale (May 6, 2021)

ChrisD said:


> Anyone know when the result is likely ?  Considering all the various elections today I’m surprised there’s no tedious BBC election programme.  How do find out results?


Results are going to seep in gradually over the next 48 hours due, apparently, to covid compliance at counts etc.


----------



## ChrisD (May 6, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Results are going to seep in gradually over the next 48 hours due, apparently, to covid compliance at counts etc.


So I’ll not bother staying up late just for a bit of seepage.... I normally attend local count but for various reasons I’m not even going to 10pm verification.  I guess it’s twitter for breakfast then.


----------



## JTG (May 6, 2021)

Guardian reckons no counting until ballots have been verified for all elections on the day - so after 4am


----------



## PR1Berske (May 6, 2021)




----------



## steeplejack (May 6, 2021)

Saw somewhere earlier a guess of 0300-0500 for the result


----------



## PR1Berske (May 6, 2021)

Once upon a time I could stay up till 3 to watch results come in. Tonight perhaps is not one of them. I'll keep an eye on things as long as possible.

The "spin" is already coming out via the usual channels. Sky reporting that "sources close" are kicking themselves over calling the election for the same day as every other vote under the sun. Pretty weak sauce argument to my ears.


----------



## two sheds (May 6, 2021)

Would have done during a proper election night, not just for local elections though.


----------



## not-bono-ever (May 6, 2021)

whatever happens here, whatever whataboutery goes on on with the LP,  its is utterly fucking criminal that a tory shitbag could ever consider
getting this seat.These cunts utterly despise and ridicule you


----------



## PR1Berske (May 6, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Would have done during a proper election night, not just for local elections though.



I was thinking the other day, about the US elections. Dozens of YouTube channels, Twitch streams etc, all providing through (thru) the night results outside the usual media outlets. Something that hasn't really caught on here at all.


----------



## two sheds (May 6, 2021)

Do they have a swingometer though eh do they do they? No they don't


----------



## steeplejack (May 7, 2021)

😬


----------



## steeplejack (May 7, 2021)

🧐


----------



## steeplejack (May 7, 2021)

Not much point staying up. The ghost of Fred Dibnah brings down another half-forgotten Red Wall chimney with sulphurous Tory kindling.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 7, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> View attachment 267102
> 🧐


That's what happens when you haven't any politics, a leader whose idea of opposition is supporting the government and a candidate who was a reject elsewhere


----------



## Sue (May 7, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> That's what happens when you haven't any politics, a leader whose idea of opposition is supporting the government and a candidate who was a reject elsewhere


Yep. You need to give people something to vote for. What are Labour for? What is Starmer for? No, I don't know either.

Bland, unconvincing and insincere blah.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 7, 2021)

Sue said:


> Yep. You need to give people something to vote for. What are Labour for? What is Starmer for? No, I don't know either.
> 
> Bland, unconvincing and insincere blah.


They're for being beaten.


----------



## William of Walworth (May 7, 2021)

Sue said:


> Yep. You need to give people something to vote for. What are Labour for? What is Starmer for? No, I don't know either.
> 
> Bland, unconvincing and insincere blah.



I do not disagree at all 

*But!!* 

As I said before, voting Tory should be _illegal_ for anyone with a minor ounce of slight intelligence  

Tory voters -- scum  
Along with 'their' party, leaders, candidates, Johnsons


----------



## William of Walworth (May 7, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> They're for being beaten.



By fucking *Tories* though? See my post just above


----------



## Pickman's model (May 7, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> By fucking Tories though? See my post just above


In a few months you'll be wondering if they can beat the lib dems


----------



## William of Walworth (May 7, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> In a few months you'll be wondering if they can beat the lib dems



Lib Dems? The also-Tories? The even-more-than-Labour-are Tories?

Steady on now!


----------



## Pickman's model (May 7, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> Lib Dems? The also-Tories? The even-more-than-Labour-are Tories?
> 
> Steady on now!


You have no idea what starmer is capable of


----------



## DownwardDog (May 7, 2021)

steeplejack said:


> a wee bit sneery



That was my intention.



steeplejack said:


> Hartlepool is quite a specific electorate- working-class fiercely Brit nationalist / local, with an armed services / British legion culture firmly embedded. .



This definitely was the case but I think it's changing now. Everybody who did National Service will now be in their 80s and there aren't many left. There wasn't and still isn't a high level of voluntary service in the armed forces. I'm the only person I know from my school who took the Queen's Shilling.


----------



## William of Walworth (May 7, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> You have no idea what starmer is capable of



I think I'd rather not know   

Tories remain utter scum though, as do (most of) their fucked-up voters


----------



## JimW (May 7, 2021)

DownwardDog said:


> I'm the only person I know from my school who took the Queen's Shilling.


Though lots of them you meet in the pub were in the SAS.


----------



## PR1Berske (May 7, 2021)

I've barely just woken up.....and the result is still not known!


----------



## PR1Berske (May 7, 2021)

This from Sky News


----------



## tony.c (May 7, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> You have no idea what starmer is capable of


BBC news political commentator is saying that 'left' MPs are saying that wrapping himself in the flag is pointless, but Starmer is likely to be pulled even further to the right.


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 7, 2021)

Turn-out only 42.55%, well down on the last few GE elections, which have been 55-60%.


----------



## tim (May 7, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> Lib Dems? The also-Tories? The even-more-than-Labour-are Tories?
> 
> Steady on now!



Are they really that principled?


----------



## tony.c (May 7, 2021)

This is a 30 foot inflatable erected by Hartlepool business people outside election count. Apparently it cost £2000. It's supposed to be Boris Johnson. Admittedly that's not much for a blimp compared to the cost of the Trump and Sadiq Khan blimps, so perhaps they couldn't expect too much. But I'd ask for my money back. I don't know who it looks like, but not Johnson.








						Inflatable Boris Johnson erected outside Hartlepool by-election count
					

Latest London news, business, sport, showbiz and entertainment from the London Evening Standard.




					www.standard.co.uk


----------



## planetgeli (May 7, 2021)

planetgeli said:


> Not a chance in hell of Labour holding that.





PR1Berske said:


> Will you be proven right?!



Yes


----------



## PR1Berske (May 7, 2021)

planetgeli said:


> Yes


I hope you got decent odds


----------



## cupid_stunt (May 7, 2021)

Tories - 15,529

Labour - 8,589

LibDem - 349

Majority - 6,940


----------



## JTG (May 7, 2021)

Labour sources already saying they haven't changed enough, full steam ahead to the right


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

Close, then.


----------



## PR1Berske (May 7, 2021)




----------



## PR1Berske (May 7, 2021)

David Bettney, SDP, 140.
Nick the Flying Brick, OMRLP, 108.
Hilton Dawson, North East Party, 163.
Gemma Evans, WEP, 140.
Rachel Featherstone, Green, 358.
Adam Gaines, Independent, 126.
Andrew Hagon, 349.
Stephen Jack, Freedom Alliance, 72.
Christopher Killick, 248.
Samantha Lee, Independent, 2904.
Claire Martin, Heritage, 468.
Jill Mortimer, Conservative, 15,529.
John Prescott, Reform UK, 368.
Thelma Walker, Independent, 250.
W. Ralph Ward Jackson, 157.
Paul Williams, Labour, 8,589.


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (May 7, 2021)

Corbyn, unelectable.


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

Trounced


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

So, just 250 people on Twitter in Hartlepool, then?


----------



## Doctor Carrot (May 7, 2021)

Oh dear! I'm more intrigued by Nick the flying brick's policies though.


----------



## kebabking (May 7, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> I do not disagree at all
> 
> *But!!*
> 
> ...



You are Labours Elections coordinator, and the Tories get Hartlepool....

Do you ever read the stuff you write on these threads and think 'i wonder what this would look like to someone in one of these constituencies who's still a bit fucked off with Labour...'?

Do you think they would read your words and think:

a) thanks William, you've put me right there.

b) you make good points, clearly I'm not bright enough to vote, and I shall stay at home while my betters decide such things.

c) who the fuck do you think you are, sneering cunt.

Answers on a postcard to: Losing Elections Section, PO box...


----------



## chilango (May 7, 2021)

That's a very poor result for the NIP tbh.


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

Doctor Carrot said:


> Oh dear! I'm more intrigued by Nick the flying brick's policies though.




The Houses of Parliament will be relocated next to Hartlepool Marina.
To halt the spread of new Covid variants all international travel will be by paddle boat.
We will enrol the Victoria Arms darts team to speed up the pace of the vaccination program.
Hartlepool Golf Club will be re-developed into an intergalactic space port.
Visiting EU officials in trade talks with the UK will be required to wear a Darlington football strip. This will ruin their game.
Return the British currency to pounds, shillings, pence, farthings and groats. Rural villages such as Hart can resume trade in shiny beads.
The Official Monster Raving Loony Party would create fifty trillion pounds through quantitative easing and give all voters free lunch and complimentary drinks for ever.
The Loony Party will issue 'looncoin' a crypto currency based on 'bitcoin' as a reserve currency in case the fifty trillion pounds quantitative easing doesn't work.
All our remaining gold reserves will be placed on the last race at the Sedgefield Races in a bid to reduce the national debt.
Coastal fishing will be made a spectator sport by introducing saltwater crocodiles into Hartlepool Bay.


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (May 7, 2021)

JTG said:


> Labour sources already saying they haven't changed enough, full steam ahead to the right



On BBC now he’s saying they haven’t become Tory enough.


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

brogdale said:


> So, just 250 people on Twitter in Hartlepool, then?


I do wonder what "left twitter" tweeters think they are doing with their time when they tweet so much. 


Bahnhof Strasse said:


> On BBC now he’s saying they haven’t become Tory enough.


who is saying that? Sir Queef?


----------



## Doctor Carrot (May 7, 2021)

ska invita said:


> The Houses of Parliament will be relocated next to Hartlepool Marina.
> To halt the spread of new Covid variants all international travel will be by paddle boat.
> We will enrol the Victoria Arms darts team to speed up the pace of the vaccination program.
> Hartlepool Golf Club will be re-developed into an intergalactic space port.
> ...



I've been looking for something to invest in lately. Looncoin sounds like the perfect vehicle. Thanks for the list


----------



## emanymton (May 7, 2021)

chilango said:


> That's a very poor result for the NIP tbh.


About what I would expect for them to be honest.


----------



## Jeff Robinson (May 7, 2021)

Pretty satisfying seeing the Wahhabist candidate so roundly trashed, but the you remember that the vermin party won


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (May 7, 2021)

ska invita said:


> who is saying that? Sir Queef?



No, a shadow something or other who hasn’t shaved for three days.

Not having a clue who these people are could be a clue as to how shit they have become...


----------



## Winot (May 7, 2021)

So it turns out it’s not the economy, stupid. As long as you appeal to people’s cultural sense of themselves, they’ll vote for you.


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> David Bettney, SDP, 140.
> Nick the Flying Brick, OMRLP, 108.
> Hilton Dawson, North East Party, 163.
> Gemma Evans, WEP, 140.
> ...


the best results of the independents
ten times more votes than thelma walker








						Hartlepudlian mum and businesswoman plans to stand in by-election.
					

Samantha Lee will be running as an Independent and says she's an alternative to the 'career politicians' aiming for the seat




					www.gazettelive.co.uk


----------



## Bahnhof Strasse (May 7, 2021)

Labour’s lost Harlow to the Tories as well. Going well so far...


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

Bahnhof Strasse said:


> Not having a clue who these people are could be a clue as to how shit they have become...


Definitely
I follow this stuff and I couldn't tell you the name of a single member of the shadow cabinet


----------



## andysays (May 7, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


>



9.7% for an independent looks pretty respectable. Who are they?


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

andysays said:


> 9.7% for an independent looks pretty respectable. Who are they?


combined vote for loads of candidates i think, of which best results went to Samantha Lee, I just posted above about


ska invita said:


> the best results of the independents
> ten times more votes than thelma walker
> 
> 
> ...


her


----------



## Doctor Carrot (May 7, 2021)

It's pretty despairing really. Not that I give a shit about labour just that people vote for that corrupt gibbering fuck wit who's piss poor handling of the pandemic has killed north of 150000 people. 

Not only that but they elect a parachuted in candidate who's well in to dodgy tax stuff isn't she? They complain about labour parachuting in candidates then they vote for a parachuted in tory. This country is fucking bizarre.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 7, 2021)

As shit as the current Shadow Cabinet is, the majority of people have never been able to recognise (Shadow) Cabinet members. The recognition of politicians, outside the PM, LoO and Chancellor, by the public has always been (very) low.


----------



## BobDavis (May 7, 2021)

Don’t blame Labour. Blame the voters. Do you want to be part of a party that reflects the views of these voters ? I certainly don’t.


----------



## tim (May 7, 2021)

cupid_stunt said:


> Tories - 15,529
> 
> Labour - 8,589
> 
> ...


Excellent showing by the Lib Dems.

What did the whippet woman get?


----------



## tim (May 7, 2021)

BobDavis said:


> Don’t blame Labour. Blame the voters. Do you want to be part of a party that reflects the views of these voters ? I certainly don’t.


What pissed off folk living in the NorthEast? I wouldn't want to be in a party or at a party with a snobbish cunt like you.


----------



## chilango (May 7, 2021)

Returning to the NIP...

Keeping their deposit was surely the target. 2-3% would've been ok. Beating the Lib Dems or the Greens (who had disastrous results) would've been something.

So, yeah, poor showing. Be interesting to see how their local council candidates have done.


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

Always on hand with his Blut und Boden analysis...


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

chilango said:


> So, yeah, poor showing. Be interesting to see how their local council candidates have done.



Im curious to know how much actual campaigning they did - and I dont mean Twitter.
Im sure Thelma walked around, but did ex Momentum do a lot beyond come up with memes?


----------



## Knotted (May 7, 2021)

Very poor result for NIP. Part of that will be down to failing to register, but I think the main problem is that a good twitter game isn't a substitute for consistent ground work. I imagine to most Hartlepoodlians they are just one on the long list of chancers looking to do well off them rather than a party/candidate that's listening to them.


----------



## Gramsci (May 7, 2021)

Steve Reid MP. Ex leader of Lambeth Council. From the Blairite wing of party. Just been on radio saying the party hasn't become "aspirational" enough.

Aspirational code for the party to go back to Blairite days


----------



## platinumsage (May 7, 2021)

Knotted said:


> I imagine to most Hartlepoodlians they are just one on the long list of chancers looking to do well off them rather than a party/candidate that's listening to them.



Isn't that what they actually are


----------



## 5t3IIa (May 7, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


> Thelma Walker, Independent, 250.


Lol she was mine then lost so went off chasing this 🤪


----------



## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)




----------



## JTG (May 7, 2021)

Bit weird to be deconstructing the result of a party that's literally only existed for a few weeks but go off I guess


----------



## Rimbaud (May 7, 2021)

Knotted said:


> Very poor result for NIP. Part of that will be down to failing to register, but I think the main problem is that a good twitter game isn't a substitute for consistent ground work. I imagine to most Hartlepoodlians they are just one on the long list of chancers looking to do well off them rather than a party/candidate that's listening to them.



I'm sure most of Hartlepool isn't on Twitter either.

However failing to register is a big issue. I'm sure there are some people who would have voted for them but didn't know the name of the candidate.


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

Rimbaud said:


> I'm sure most of Hartlepool isn't on Twitter either.


Most of my friends dont even use Twitter.
I do get the impression people who post on it a lot have a distorted view of its reach.


----------



## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)

ska invita said:


> Most of my friends dont even use Twitter.
> I do get the impression people who post on it a lot have a distorted view of its reach.


Wait till they discover urban75


----------



## redsquirrel (May 7, 2021)

brogdale  You might dislike his politics (I do) but is there not a certain truth what he has said at the level of electoral politics?

Party politics has become entirely about values rather than interests  - see the who EU spam on this site. In France the next presidential election will ultimately be a battle between neoliberal technocracy and nationalist populism, a similar fight is going to be the case in Italy, in Germany the Greens are taking votes from both the CDU and SDP.

I hate and despise the attempts to remove/cover up class (because of course under the bullshit of electoral politics the real politics is still absolutely about class), but I find it hard to disagree that values have replaced interests. This site is an excellent example, there are posters that post reams and reams of twitter shite. To these posters that _*is*_ politics, the have the correct _views _(as shown by sharing the 'correct' tweets). The idea that interests are the basis of politics is dismissed

I know plenty of lovely liberal anti-tories with the 'correct' views about equality (many of them sitting on E&D committees) that scabbed. Some even told me that they supported the strike while crossing picket lines FFS. In their minds their was no contradiction because _support=views_ and so long as they had the right view they were supporting the strike. The fact that their _actions_ undermined their colleagues, workers and wider society is utterly foreign to their understanding.

The idea of a 'left' was always shot through with contradictions but now it is utterly incoherent.


----------



## JTG (May 7, 2021)

Twitter obvs isn't the be all and end all but it's odd to suggest that social media isn't something that can influence - and even start movements.
The rest takes time, something that clearly hasn't been on their side. They may or may not make an impact somewhere, somewhen but the terms of this discussion are strange tbh


----------



## Yossarian (May 7, 2021)

BobDavis said:


> Most of my friends dont even use Twitter.
> I do get the impression people who post on it a lot have a distorted view of its reach.



I get the impression that a lot of journalists see Twitter as an acceptable substitute for talking to people.


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

I thought they were going to do better tbh, and I think it's worth thinking about why those of us who did were so wrong.


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

JTG said:


> Twitter obvs isn't the be all and end all but it's odd to suggest that social media isn't something that can influence - and even start movements.
> The rest takes time, something that clearly hasn't been on their side. They may or may not make an impact somewhere, somewhen but the terms of this discussion are strange tbh


paid facebook posts can reach parts of the general public, for sure. 
Dont think the rest has much effect
Even viral whatsapps probably more effective than twitter i would guess, (depending on the global location)


----------



## chilango (May 7, 2021)

killer b said:


> I thought they were going to do better tbh, and I think it's worth thinking about why those of us who did were so wrong.



Yeah,. I thought and hoped they'd do better. Not least to add something vaguely positive the inevitable Tory win.


----------



## PR1Berske (May 7, 2021)




----------



## JTG (May 7, 2021)

Lab share of the vote nearly halved since 2017 btw


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

I would imagine that one key priority for Starmer will be to ensure that all of his sitting MPs now take out BUPA cover; really can't have any of them dying too soon.Oh...and make sure any of the noncy ones have wiped their histories properly.


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

JTG said:


> Lab share of the vote nearly halved since 2017 btw


yeah, and I'm guessing a large number of those didn't bother voting rather than voted tory - which is where I'd imagined the NIP vote would come from.


----------



## Jeff Robinson (May 7, 2021)

PR1Berske said:


>




I'm sure he's already planning his electoral come back, in the Saudi _Majlis ash-Shura._


----------



## Sue (May 7, 2021)

Mandelson on R4 just now. It's due to two Cs -- Corbyn and covid.


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

Sue said:


> Mandelson on R4 just now. It's due to two Cs -- Corbyn and covid.


Can think of another 'C', tbh


----------



## Jeff Robinson (May 7, 2021)

killer b said:


> yeah, and I'm guessing a large number of those didn't bother voting rather than voted tory - which is where I'd imagined the NIP vote would come from.



Looks like the gain in the con vote is pretty directly proportional to the loss of the vote by the Brexit Party/RefUK.


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

/


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 7, 2021)

BobDavis said:


> Don’t blame Labour. Blame the voters. Do you want to be part of a party that reflects the views of these voters ? I certainly don’t.



In one post Bob tells us exactly why the British left is, always has been and always will be utterly fucking unfit for purpose. Sneering, superior, moralistic and pious. What a combo.


----------



## Jeff Robinson (May 7, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> In one post Bob tells us exactly why the British left is, always has been and always will be utterly fucking unfit for purpose. Sneering, superior, moralistic and pious. What a combo.



You're right. After all, BobDavis has been our perpetual leader.


----------



## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> In one post Bob tells us exactly why the British left is, always has been and always will be utterly fucking unfit for purpose. Sneering, superior, moralistic and pious. What a combo.


It's been argued here before that the working class is no longer fit for purpose for the left. Need a new working class or failing that socialism without the working class.


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Just for info/reference...
> 
> View attachment 266926


----------



## BobDavis (May 7, 2021)

tim said:


> What pissed off folk living in the NorthEast? I wouldn't want to be in a party or at a party with a snobbish cunt like you.


Probably the same as what pissed off voters in the small Tory voting town I live in although most around here have always voted Tory. Instead name calling maybe you should reflect on what this country has become & be rather sad unless of course you are happy about what it has become as most people who live around me are. The voters of Hartlepool voted for the party that most reflected their views & values I guess ? Those views & values are not mine & I would hope they would not be those of Labour & never will be.


----------



## Jeff Robinson (May 7, 2021)

BobDavis said:


> Probably the same as what pissed off voters in the small Tory voting town I live in although most around here have always voted Tory. Instead name calling maybe you should reflect on what this country has become & be rather sad unless of course you are happy about what it has become as most people who live around me are. The voters of Hartlepool voted for the party that most reflected their views & values I guess ? Those views & values are not mine & I would hope they would not be those of Labour & never will be.



What values did the Labour candidate embody? Head chopping? Genocide in Yemen? Hacking dissidents to death? Great stuff.


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> It's been argued here before that the working class is no longer fit for purpose for the left. Need a new working class or failing that socialism without the working class.



Yes. And a quick look at France tells us where socialism without the working class ends up.


----------



## BobDavis (May 7, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> In one post Bob tells us exactly why the British left is, always has been and always will be utterly fucking unfit for purpose. Sneering, superior, moralistic and pious. What a combo.


Why would despising the nasty racist xenophobic world views held by a large number of my workmates throughout my whole working life be sneering moralistic & pious ? Or should I have tried to understand & empathise with them ? Is that where I went wrong ?


----------



## MickiQ (May 7, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> I do not disagree at all
> 
> *But!!*
> 
> ...


Taking defeat gracefully I see William

It was an impressive result for the Tories, I was expecting them to win but that margin has turned Hartlepool from what was once a safe Labour seat into a solid Tory one, I foresee another Labour civil war brewing.
2 very interesting other results were the Independent who 10% of the vote keeping her deposit, clearly there is a growing "A Plague on Both Your Houses" vote and the fact that the LibDem's came 7th. Seriousy SEVENTH! More than a decade since Clegg took his 40 pieces of silver and they're still on the way down.


----------



## BobDavis (May 7, 2021)

Jeff Robinson said:


> What values did the Labour candidate embody? Head chopping? Genocide in Yemen? Hacking dissidents to death? Great stuff.


Maybe Labour might be more inclined to build council houses ? We live in hope anyway.


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> It's been argued here before that the working class is no longer fit for purpose for the left. Need a new working class or failing that socialism without the working class.


At this point I normally post that "Die Lösung" by Brecht...but it's getting trotted out too often, now.


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 7, 2021)

BobDavis said:


> Why would despising the nasty racist xenophobic world views held by a large number of my workmates throughout my whole working life be sneering moralistic & pious ? Or should I have tried to understand & empathise with them ? Is that where I went wrong ?



I guess it all depends on if your starting point is to take people as you find them and not what _you _expect them to be or not.  Your experience of ordinary people as frothing racists and xenophobic is completely different to mine by the way


----------



## BobDavis (May 7, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> I guess it all depends on if your starting point is to take people as you find them and not what _you _expect them to be or not.  Your experience of ordinary people as frothing racists and xenophobic is completely different to mine by the way


I suppose it depends where you spent your working life & what your job was. I was an hgv driver. That job around where I live which is Essex well outside London seemed to attract the sort of people I described.


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

incredible clip here from a Labour MP. TBF I think he's probably about right on the calculation some of the voters of Hartlepool have made, but it's weird hearing a Labour MP saying how great the tories are


----------



## bimble (May 7, 2021)

What was turnout like? Would turnout give a clue as to how much people are just pissed off with labour or how much they're actively happy with Boris & co?


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

42% I read somewhere


----------



## bimble (May 7, 2021)

killer b said:


> 42% I read somewhere


Thats quite high?
eta oh, hartlepool shows up top of the table for low turnout in the 2018 ones (at 24%)


----------



## glitch hiker (May 7, 2021)

Not going to lie, the site of another Tory victory is pretty galling. Labour are shit and wont' learn fuck all from this of course, but even that schedenfreude isn't enough to justifiy giving more power to a cruel openly mendacious government that seems able to get away with murder. Dark times ahead?


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

bimble said:


> What was turnout like? Would turnout give a clue as to how much people are just pissed off with labour or how much they're actively happy with Boris & co?


57.9%


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

bimble said:


> Thats quite high?


I'm not sure, I think it's a bit on the low side tbh. The last hard-fought by election I can think of is Peterborough in 2019, and they managed 48%


----------



## redsquirrel (May 7, 2021)

ska invita said:


> 57.9%
> View attachment 267121


I think that must be wrong ska - wiki has 42.7%, which like killer b was the figure I saw mentioned

EDIT: I think 57.9% is the turnout for the 2019 GE, looks like someone made a c&p error

*Hartlepool byelection results in full - Tories win with 16-point swing*
Here are the Hartlepool results in full, from PA Media.
Jill Mortimer (C) 15,529 (51.88%, +22.96%)
Paul Williams (Lab) 8,589 (28.69%, -8.99%)
............)
C maj 6,940 (23.19%)
15.97% swing Lab to C
Electorate 70,768; Turnout 29,933 (42.30%, -15.62%)

And here are the 2019 general election results.
2019: Lab maj 3,595 (8.76%) - Turnout 41,037 (57.92%)
Hill (Lab) 15,464 (37.68%); Houghton (C) 11,869 (28.92%); Tice
(Brexit) 10,603 (25.84%); Hagon (LD) 1,696 (4.13%); Bousfield (Ind)
911 (2.22%); Cranney (Soc Lab) 494 (1.20%)


----------



## Pickman's model (May 7, 2021)

Has it been blamed on aul corbs yet?


----------



## Pickman's model (May 7, 2021)

redsquirrel said:


> I think that must be wrong ska - wiki has 42.7%


Sounds more what I'd expect


----------



## Sprocket. (May 7, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> Has it been blamed on aul corbs yet?


And Miliband apparently.


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> Has it been blamed on aul corbs yet?


Them canny folks of Hartlepool hated him so much they lured him into a false sense of security by voting for his party (twice) then, when he'd been kicked out of the PLP, deftly delivered their killer blow.


----------



## bimble (May 7, 2021)

Why would almost twice as many people in Hartlepool have voted in this local election compared to the 2018 one?


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 7, 2021)

BobDavis said:


> I suppose it depends where you spent your working life & what your job was. I was an hgv driver. That job around where I live which is Essex well outside London seemed to attract the sort of people I described.



Can’t say I’ve ever been to Essex but I can’t imagine working class people there are much different to those in Birmingham or anywhere else. Worried about the future for them, their families and mates. Want a decent job and a home. Depressed about the state of their local community and sick of the lockdown. Do _some_ of them hold some views that some on the left find distasteful? Yup. Is that what defines them and means they should be written off? If you are waiting for a perfect working class to emerge, fully formed, immune from alienation and capitalist realism then you are in for a long wait.


----------



## BobDavis (May 7, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> Has it been blamed on aul corbs yet?


Well I was ok with Corbyn as were the rest of us sneery lefty snobs apparently.


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 7, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> Has it been blamed on aul corbs yet?



Now you come to mention it.....


*Shadow cabinet minister says Labour must 'speed up movement back towards British people'*
*Steve Reed,* the shadow communities secretary, was also interviewed about the Hartlepool result on the Today programme by *Nick Robinson* and he struggled to explain what the party meant when it said the result showed it needed to change more. (See 7.36pm.)
*Reed* argued that the party was still recovering from a historic defeat at the general election. He said people thought the party was “inward-looking” and not focused on aspiration. He said the pandemic meant that, as leader, Sir Keir Starmer had never been able to deliver a speech to a live audience.
When *Robinson* put it to him that he was blaming Jeremy Corbyn, *Reed *replied: “I haven’t specifically said that.” But Reed repeated the argument that the 2019 result meant Labour had a “mountain to climb”.
*Robinson *then said that, when Labour said it had to change, people did not know what that meant. All they got was “waffle”, Robinson said. What did change mean?
*Reed *replied:


> One of the things that happened in the long breakdown in trust between the British people and the Labour party is that we talked to ourselves too much. I don’t want us to do that right now. I want us to get out there and I want us to speak to the British people.


----------



## MickiQ (May 7, 2021)

bimble said:


> Why would almost twice as many people in Hartlepool have voted in this local election compared to the 2018 one?


Because there was a by-election? If you're going to turn out for the by-election then you might as well cast a vote in the LE whilst you're there even if you wouldn't have made a special trip for just the LE


----------



## bimble (May 7, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> Because there was a by-election? If you're going to turn out for the by-election then you might as well cast a vote in the LE whilst you're there even if you wouldn't have made a special trip for just the LE


oh. i had to google what that even means.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> that socialism without the working class.


That is exactly what they want, a 'socialism' based on 'progressive' values rather than on class interests. 

I don't agree with everything in it but this piece by Matt Karb is definitely worth reading 


> November’s third major winner, filling out the picture, was America’s headlong march toward a party system entirely decoupledfrom the politics of class. To be sure, the class-aligned politics of the long New Deal era — which happened to produce virtually every worthwhile national law, from Social Security to the Voting Rights Act — began to erode decades ago. But the last four years have seen a rapid acceleration of this trend, with Republicans winning larger and larger chunks of the non-college-educated working class, while Democrats gain more and more votes from affluent professionals and managers.


----------



## A380 (May 7, 2021)

Despite what we tell kids, British elections are mostly about getting your vote out whilst the other side don’t.
Labour seem to have lost the ability to do that at the moment.


----------



## bellaozzydog (May 7, 2021)

A380 said:


> Despite what we tell kids, British elections are mostly about getting your vote out whilst the other side don’t.
> Labour seem to have list the ability to do that at the moment.



boots on the ground all voted with their feet over the last year and a half as this flags and pints, socialism free, friends of Israel dog and pony show developed


----------



## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)

Just read that the Tories have taken Dudley Council so that's another area for Bob's list of places to avoid.


----------



## BobDavis (May 7, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Can’t say I’ve ever been to Essex but I can’t imagine working class people there are much different to those in Birmingham or anywhere else. Worried about the future for them, their families and mates. Want a decent job and a home. Depressed about the state of their local community and sick of the lockdown. Do _some_ of them hold some views that some on the left find distasteful? Yup. Is that what defines them and means they should be written off? If you are waiting for a perfect working class to emerge, fully formed, immune from alienation and capitalist realism then you are in for a long wait.


I would think the demographic of Birmingham is very different from the more rural parts of Essex. You have Labour MPs. None around here. I think many people have expectations that are irrational. I heard Johnson make a remark in Hartlepool the other day that was not even picked up on & should have been. “What the voters of Hartlepool want is less council tax & better social services”. How will that work then ?


----------



## magneze (May 7, 2021)

Looks like tons of, mainly Labour voters, didn't turn out. So, less about people switching Tory, more about, nothing to vote for. IMHO.


----------



## BobDavis (May 7, 2021)

So the Tories are now ok because they are offering the working classes what they want then ?


----------



## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)

magneze said:


> Looks like tons of, mainly Labour voters, didn't turn out. So, less about people switching Tory, more about, nothing to vote for. IMHO.


Labour should have sent in the top table to get them out


----------



## andysays (May 7, 2021)

redsquirrel said:


> brogdale  You might dislike his politics (I do) but is there not a certain truth what he has said at the level of electoral politics?
> 
> Party politics has become entirely about values rather than interests  - see the who EU spam on this site. In France the next presidential election will ultimately be a battle between neoliberal technocracy and nationalist populism, a similar fight is going to be the case in Italy, in Germany the Greens are taking votes from both the CDU and SDP.
> 
> ...


Is this a response to an actual post of brogdale's, because I can't see what you're actually referring to here.

This post



Gramsci said:


> Steve Reid MP. Ex leader of Lambeth Council. From the Blairite wing of party. Just been on radio saying the party hasn't become "aspirational" enough.
> 
> Aspirational code for the party to go back to Blairite days


talks about aspirational values, so maybe you're referring to this, but aspirational talks about interests in an individualistic way, not in terms of class based interests,  and using the term is, as Gramsci suggests, code for a return to Blairism.

Or maybe you are referring to an actual post of brogdale's and I've just missed it, in which case it would be helpful if you used the reply function so we can all see what you're referring to.


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

andysays said:


> Is this a response to an actual post of brogdale's, because I can't see what you're actually referring to here.
> 
> This post
> 
> ...


I think he's talking about Matt Goodwin's tweet


----------



## andysays (May 7, 2021)

bimble said:


> Why would almost twice as many people in Hartlepool have voted in this local election compared to the 2018 one?


Because there's a by-election on the same day.


----------



## magneze (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Labour should have sent in the top table to get them out


Who or what is the "top table"?


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

Anyway, on the question of Labour turnout - lots and lots of people in my orbit who very recently were loud supporters of the Labour Party didn't bother voting in the locals yesterday. The activist base is totally demoralised and disconnected, which is presumably reflected even more heavily in the wider support for the party from the less committed voter base...


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> Can’t say I’ve ever been to Essex but I can’t imagine working class people there are much different to those in Birmingham or anywhere else.  Worried about the future for them, their families and mates. Want a decent job and a home. Depressed about the state of their local community and sick of the lockdown


its more complex than that
theres a lot of ex east Londoners - working class origins, now petty booj if not middle class, who have made good money and moved out of London, with an attitude of "too many foreigners there now"
its not everyone in essex of course, and there are some seriously long term poor parts of essex
But essex has a particular history of relatively recent people moving there (80s onwards) and taking a powerful narrative of "londons been lost to the foreigners" with them


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

killer b said:


> I think he's talking about Matt Goodwin's tweet


Yes it was a response to the Goodwin tweet that I posted.


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 7, 2021)

BobDavis said:


> I would think the demographic of Birmingham is very different from the more rural parts of Essex. You have Labour MPs. None around here. I think many people have expectations that are irrational. I heard Johnson make a remark in Hartlepool the other day that was not even picked up on & should have been. “What the voters of Hartlepool want is less council tax & better social services”. How will that work then ?



I’m not convinced there is that much material difference. Aren’t a lot of people in Essex ex Londoners pushed out of the city by gentrification?

My final point to you Bob is this. Across working class communities everywhere the long-term effects of deindustrialisation - and the concomitant collapse of a Labour and trade union movement that grew up alongside industrial society - has profound implications.

The working class you are quick to right off are living with the consequences of this collapse. They are the lived experience of what has happened. Let’s start by listening to what they have experienced and how it’s made them feel....


----------



## magneze (May 7, 2021)

Some "analysis" from Laura Kuenssberg:
"The Hartlepool result is not a surprise for Labour. And it's important to remember that about 10,000 people voted for the Brexit Party in 2019 there, and at an early glance it seemed many of those voters switched across to the Tories."








						Tory win in Hartlepool provides setback for Labour
					

The Conservatives romped home in Hartlepool - what will be the consequences for Keir Starmer and Labour?



					www.bbc.co.uk
				



Actually, at a glance, *some* of those voters switched to the Tories, *most* did not vote.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 7, 2021)

andysays said:


> Is this a response to an actual post of brogdale's, because I can't see what you're actually referring to here.


What killer b said, it was in response to brogdale 's post above it about Goodwin's tweet


----------



## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)

Mandelson saying it was down to the two C's- Covid and Corbyn and as one person on the doorstep allegedly told him  'Sort yourselves out, sort yourselves out. You picked the wrong brother and you ended up with Corbyn so that’s goodbye to you. When you’ve sorted yourselves out, we’ll look at you again’.


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

redsquirrel said:


> brogdale  You might dislike his politics (I do) but is there not a certain truth what he has said at the level of electoral politics?
> 
> Party politics has become entirely about values rather than interests  - see the who EU spam on this site. In France the next presidential election will ultimately be a battle between neoliberal technocracy and nationalist populism, a similar fight is going to be the case in Italy, in Germany the Greens are taking votes from both the CDU and SDP.
> 
> ...


Yes, it does suit the populist right party of capital to ensure that electoral politics remain fixed in identarian superstrructual issues. 
My problem with Goodwin is that he's a cheerleader for that process rather than an analyst.


----------



## redsquirrel (May 7, 2021)

brogdale said:


> My problem with Goodwin is that he's a cheerleader for that process rather than an analyst.


He is, but no more than many of those on the left


----------



## StoneRoad (May 7, 2021)

Bliddy disappointed with the result.

from my own knowledge of the area, what I think should be a solid WC supporting area has a lot of right-wingers and brexiteers. And a fair bit of racism, tbh.


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

redsquirrel said:


> He is, but no more than many of those on the left


Therein lies the problem.


----------



## andysays (May 7, 2021)

redsquirrel said:


> What killer b said, it was in response to brogdale 's post above it about Goodwin's tweet


Thanks for clarification. 

As a general point, it would be helpful if people could reply to the post they're responding to, because it's especially difficult to scroll back and find what's being referred to on a phone (or maybe that's just me...?)


----------



## BobDavis (May 7, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> I’m not convinced there is that much material difference. Aren’t a lot of people in Essex ex Londoners pushed out of the city by gentrification?
> 
> My final point to you Bob is this. Across working class communities everywhere the long-term effects of deindustrialisation - and the concomitant collapse of a Labour and trade union movement that grew up alongside industrial society - has profound implications.
> 
> The working class you are quick to right off are living with the consequences of this collapse. They are the lived experience of what has happened. Let’s start by listening to what they have experienced and how it’s made them feel....


The people ”pushed out of London” I know will give you a very different answer. Years ago it was ”to get away from the(people whose skin was not white)innit ?”. Nowadays it is more likely selling a more modest home in London & for the same money moving into one of the £half mill+ large detached piles being chucked up everywhere around where I live. Very little “affordable” housing for rent is happening though.

On your second point yes it is odd that the solution to the chaos wreaked on this country by the Tories in the 80s appears to be seen as the Tories now. To see why housing is now unaffordable to those not already on the housing ladder you just have to do the maths. In the 70s average house price was 4 times average annual wage now it is at least 10 times that. Around here anyway. It was the Tories who caused that but of course for many older people they love Thatch for making it possible for them to become home owners in the 80s. Do younger people vote or are they so fucked off they cannot see the point ?


----------



## mojo pixy (May 7, 2021)

BobDavis said:


> So the Tories are now ok because they are offering the working classes what they want then ?



Nobody's said that, nobody's saying it. What has been pointed out though is that this swing is more to do with people not voting because they can't see anything worth voting for. Tories tend to vote come hell or high water, so when everyone else is disengaged, tories win by default. If Labour were worth voting for, people would vote for them. They did vote for them. Labour got their biggest actual number of votes in 2019**, I think ever (I may be wrong). If they had made serious plans for some kind of Lexit and included that in the manifesto under the pretext of _It's been voted for, that's democracy, we accept it, here's our plan for it_, they would IMO have done much better. Would be doing much better.

Anyway, that ship has sailed, but what Hartlepool shows more than anything is not so much people love the tories (their 15000 is about average for them, if you go back to the '80s). It's that Labour have lost a lot of support they once had. Looking at turnout, those people are mostly just not voting.

EtA, because it got corrected: yes I was thinking of 2017. 2019 was all "Get Brexit Done" though that does underline what I'm saying, I think.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 7, 2021)

mojo pixy said:


> Nobody's said that, nobody's saying it. What has been pointed out though is that this swing is more to do with people not voting because they can't see anything worth voting for. Tories tend to vote come hell or high water, so when everyone else is disengaged, tories win by default. If Labour were worth voting for, people would vote for them. They did vote for them. Labour got their biggest actual number of votes in 2019, I think ever (I may be wrong). If they had made serious plans for some kind of Lexit and included that in the manifesto under the pretext of _It's been voted for, that's democracy, we accept it, here's our plan for it_, they would IMO have done much better. Would be doing much better.
> 
> Anyway, that ship has sailed, but what Hartlepool shows more than anything is not so much people love the tories (their 15000 is about average for them, if you go back to the '80s). It's that Labour have lost a lot of support they once had. Looking at turnout, those people are mostly just not voting.


might be 1997. but 2019 still more than 2005, 2010, 2015


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> might be 1997. but 2019 still more than 2005, 2010, 2015


in raw votes (obvs not % of popular vote)


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

& in % of popular vote terms:


----------



## Pickman's model (May 7, 2021)

brogdale said:


> in raw votes (obvs not % of popular vote)
> 
> View attachment 267141


soz i was talking about ges


----------



## Wilf (May 7, 2021)

JTG said:


> Bit weird to be deconstructing the result of a party that's literally only existed for a few weeks but go off I guess


True, with regard the length of time they've existed, but this was an ideal moment for them to make some sort of a splash.  Lingering sense of the north east being far from the centre of power, Labour's vote crumbling, candidates being parachuted in for both Labour and Tory.


----------



## William of Walworth (May 7, 2021)

William of Walworth said:
			
		

> I do not disagree at all
> 
> *But!!*
> 
> ...





kebabking said:


> You are Labours Elections coordinator,



No I'm not, never was, never will be, and never want to be.

The remainder of your post is therefore fully invalidated :



> and the Tories get Hartlepool....
> Do you ever read the stuff you write on these threads and think 'i wonder what this would look like to someone in one of these constituencies who's still a bit fucked off with Labour...'?
> Do you think they would read your words and think:
> a) thanks William, you've put me right there.
> ...



I've only just seen the Hartlepool result, and my post that you're quoting was put up last night after midnight, while I was pretty drunk  
Three pages ago, but FFS! 

Still,  *everything* you've posted above seems to be based on some sort of assumption (*110% false*  ), that I was in any way suggesting a strategy for Labour to follow, or that I want to have anything at all to do with what strategy Labour should adopt.

I'd be utterly rubbish at both I fully admit.

In my years-ago Labour Party days (long gone) I always preferred leafletting to actual canvassing for reasons -- often impatience-related 

So my earlier drunken ranting   on Urban has *fuck-all* to do with what Labour needs to do next, that's up to them and I'd want nowt to do with it.

It was a pissed and pissed-off rant only, was never more than that, and that should have been obvious to someone as intelligent as you.

Seems that it wasn't though!


----------



## Wilf (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Mandelson saying it was down to the two C's- Covid and Corbyn and as one person on the doorstep allegedly told him  'Sort yourselves out, sort yourselves out. You picked the wrong brother and you ended up with Corbyn so that’s goodbye to you. When you’ve sorted yourselves out, we’ll look at you again’.


That there was a clamour on the doorstep for David Miliband sounds... _unlikely_.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 7, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> No I'm not, never was, never will be, and never want to be.
> 
> The remainder of your post is therefore fully invalidated :
> 
> ...


you should have tried directing the canvass, which can readily be done from a public house


----------



## SpookyFrank (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Mandelson saying it was down to the two C's- Covid and Corbyn and as one person on the doorstep allegedly told him  'Sort yourselves out, sort yourselves out. You picked the wrong brother and you ended up with Corbyn so that’s goodbye to you. When you’ve sorted yourselves out, we’ll look at you again’.



I wonder how many decades it will be before these twats keep blaming Corbyn for everything.


----------



## Wilf (May 7, 2021)

mojo pixy said:


> . If they had made serious plans for some kind of Lexit and included that in the manifesto under the pretext of _It's been voted for, that's democracy, we accept it, here's our plan for it_, they would IMO have done much better. Would be doing much better.


Yep. Labour have a long term problem in terms of responding to deindustrialisation and the disappearance of working class jobs that led to trade union membership and Labour voting (as in Smokeandsteam 's post above).  Part of the process of reconnection would have been to simply accept the Brexit vote and pursue the best deal for workers, the environment etc.  That would have been 'democracy', but also recognition that the brexit vote itself had been about working class communities feeling ignored. It would have also made Labour an active player with regard to GETTING BREXIT DONE, to coin a phrase, rather than looking a bunch of inept lawyers and Westminster 'insiders'.  Instead, Labour ignored alienated communities some more and played an absurd game of seeking parliamentary numbers to trip May up.  Starmer was of course idiot number one in this, but Corbyn's approach betrayed awful instincts.  It was always the game and the internal politics of the party, never looking outwards.  Labour went into the 2019 election with a reasonable set of social democratic policies (even if it was a bit of a garbled mess). However everything that Labour did from 2017-19 further alienated them from working class voters and areas, to the point where the policies were irrelevant.  And here we are.


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## killer b (May 7, 2021)

Richard Seymour's mailout just now is good.


_



			Let's give as much charity as we can to every excuse that can be found.

The 'vaccine bounce' is not an illusion. It isn't anything like the whole story, but we have to make allowance for the sheer emotional relief of springtime, reopening and the semi-plausible belief that the era of lockdowns is over. No matter how much death and misery the government are to blame for, Boris Johnson's specific appeal to voters is that he makes them feel good about themselves. 'Bring us sunshine', the Daily Mail once mawkishly pleaded, and for those who like him, he does. If depression is endemic in these isles, don't underestimate the power of anyone who appears to offer an anti-depressant.

The Brexit effect is real. In seats like Hartlepool, the surprise of 2017 was that they didn't go Tory, with the single exception of Mansfield. In the previous general election of 2015, the combined Conservative and Ukip vote was easily over fifty percent in a slew of former Labour heartlands. This largely reflected the growing abstention of former Labour voters, but a minority were also energised by Ukip's racist agitation in a way that they wouldn't been by the Tories. Ukip functioned as a conversion machine, delivering lots of former non-voters, Liberal voters, independent voters and Labour voters to Tories in these constituencies. The collapse that was expected in 2017, when Farage was briefly in retirement and Ukip voters were expected to go Tory, was simply put off for a couple of years by a surprisingly effective Labour campaign and manifesto. More generally, the revival of the Conservative vote is a secular phenomenon. In every election since 2010, the Tories have increased their vote share. The biggest single factor in this is the rise of right-wing populism and its culmination in the Brexit vote.

Congruent with that shift, the Conservatives are no longer campaigning on a neoliberal, austerian ticket. They are talking about big structural investment. Tory mayor of Hartlepool, Ben Houchen, is popular because he supports some Labour-type policies: taking the local airport into public ownership, investment and industrial policy. The global context, which includes low borrowing costs for governments, the retreat of globalisation, the pandemic emergency, the rise of Chinese state capitalism as a superior competitor, and the concomitant shift in Washington, gives the Conservatives plenty of leeway for this. When Hillary Clinton talks about competing with China more effectively by reclaiming "the means of production", you know that the old Washington Consensus is finished. As L. P. Hartley wrote, "the past is a foreign country: they do things differently there."

The desperadoes of the Labour Right would add one more effect: the 'Corbyn effect'. Few beyond their incestuous sodalities will buy it, but let's give it as much charity as possible. Tom Watson is quite right to say that Labour was never going to turn round the 2019 defeat in a single year. It is also true to say that this defeat, as much as it was about Brexit and Labour's utter confusion on the issue, was also about the extent to which Corbyn himself had been vilified in the national media. It's also probably true that the denouement of Corbynism, after the enthusiasm of 2017, probably confirmed many people in their growing cynicism toward and contempt for Labour. It's also true that the defeat in 2019 demoralised and disoriented activists, and triggered a sequence leading to the decimation of the activist and small donor base. That has left campaigns strapped for door-knockers and cash.

Not much else can be said in favour of the 'blame Corbyn' argument, because it's an insane argument. If your vote drops more then points on that of your predecessor, it isn't convincing to blame your predecessor. Particularly if you've witch-hunted, suspended and denied the whip to your predecessor, an auto-da-fé put on precisely so that the current leader could boast about how different he was. This election campaign was run by the leadership office. The candidate, a dull figure of the centre-right, was imposed by the leadership. Even the timetable was chosen by the leadership office. The campaign was dominated, not by Corbynites, but by New Labour figures such as Peter Mandelson and Iain McNicol. The whole political strategy since early 2020, such as it is, has been determined by the leadership office. That strategy is what has been tested here, nothing else.

And this is where we come to Keir Starmer. Starmer reminds one of the character in Howard's End who has given up "the glory of the animal for a tail coat and a couple of ideas". Except that he has neither ideas nor tailcoat. Yet, half of the Corbyn base, given an admittedly uninspiring roster of candidates last year, and amid the demoralisation and rudderlessness mentioned above, chose him. I frankly think this speaks poorly of them. That they didn't cringe to listen to him speak. That he didn't make their teeth chatter and their skin crawl. That they really bought this balloon as a charismatic performer, as someone who could (even if he wished to) defend the core policies in a slick and professional way. One can only be reminded of those Lib Dems who genuinely thought that Jo Swinson was good on television, until she spent a bit more time on television. It's a sad testament to the mind-addling power of despair. And yet, of course, when the chips are down you see what that support amounts to. There was a big abstention of activists in these local elections (excepting, perhaps, in Manchester where Andy Burnham appears to draw genuine warmth). This is why constituency parties and the national office were bombarding members with emails begging for help. Since there isn't going to be a change of leadership, most people are voting with their feet.

Now, I've seen John McDonnell in the news explaining that he won't be asking for Starmer to resign. He says that would be behaving like the people who waged relentless, brutal war against Corbyn. I can see the game that McDonnell is playing. However, the rhetoric speaks volumes about what went wrong with the Corbyn leadership, and what goes wrong with the British Left in general. It's far too much in love with the moral high ground, when political battles aren't usually won on the moral high ground. And that's why we have Starmer, and that's why Starmer will get far worse before anything gets better.
		
Click to expand...

_


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## JTG (May 7, 2021)

Wilf said:


> True, with regard the length of time they've existed, but this was an ideal moment for them to make some sort of a splash.  Lingering sense of the north east being far from the centre of power, Labour's vote crumbling, candidates being parachuted in for both Labour and Tory.


Which are all true but they weren't expecting the by election, didn't have a very long run up from formation to polling day, during a pandemic. Not sure much can be read into it tbh
No skin in the game tbh but it seems a bit soon to be making judgments unless people are peeved that someone dared to try something new outside of the Labour Party, in which case _shrug_
Some bloke in Hull who ran under their banner got 10% I see. But anyway.


----------



## BobDavis (May 7, 2021)

m)


mojo pixy said:


> Nobody's said that, nobody's saying it. What has been pointed out though is that this swing is more to do with people not voting because they can't see anything worth voting for. Tories tend to vote come hell or high water, so when everyone else is disengaged, tories win by default. If Labour were worth voting for, people would vote for them. They did vote for them. Labour got their biggest actual number of votes in 2019**, I think ever (I may be wrong). If they had made serious plans for some kind of Lexit and included that in the manifesto under the pretext of _It's been voted for, that's democracy, we accept it, here's our plan for it_, they would IMO have done much better. Would be doing much better.
> 
> Anyway, that ship has sailed, but what Hartlepool shows more than anything is not so much people love the tories (their 15000 is about average for them, if you go back to the '80s). It's that Labour have lost a lot of support they once had. Looking at turnout, those people are mostly just not voting.
> 
> EtA, because it got corrected: yes I was thinking of 2017. 2019 was all "Get Brexit Done" though that does underline what I'm saying, I think.


Yes. Stephen Kinnock suggested Labour should vote for May’s brexit deal as least worst brexit & move on from there. Did not agree then but I do now. Hindsight eh ?


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

Disappointed rather than peeved tbh.

Interesting to note that the Survation constituency poll had the tories more or less nailed on, Labour a little overstated, and NIP totally wrong.


----------



## Wilf (May 7, 2021)

JTG said:


> Which are all true but they weren't expecting the by election, didn't have a very long run up from formation to polling day, during a pandemic. Not sure much can be read into it tbh
> No skin in the game tbh but it seems a bit soon to be making judgments unless people are peeved that someone dared to try something new outside of the Labour Party, in which case _shrug_
> Some bloke in Hull who ran under their banner got 10% I see. But anyway.


Ditto in terms of skin absence and, fwiw, I'd have preferred Labour to lose due to a big NIP showing than what we got. 

Must admit, I've completely ignored the 'Independence' bit in NIP.  The question for me was if they got a reasonable showing as torch bearers of Labour's abandoned social democratic tradition, a kind of Corbynism with Corbyn if you like. 

I think we come back to the conjunction of the party system and the electoral system.  Labour are not fit for purpose at the moment, _not any kind of purpose_ to be honest.  However they are not going away and it's very difficult for any other party or set of parties to take their place. As always, things need to be built away from Westminster, but the really depressing thing is that isn't happening either.


----------



## Kevbad the Bad (May 7, 2021)

SpookyFrank said:


> I wonder how many decades it will be before these twats keep blaming Corbyn for everything.


Tbf, Corbyn is at fault now, because voters are worried that he might come back, so just in case they vote Tory. Similarly the Labour vote under Brown and Milliband went down because voters then were concerned that Corbyn *might* become leader at some time in the future. Even after he eventually dies there's still the possibility he might rise from the dead. (It could happen - after all 'Che Guevara lives', 'Zapata lives', Jesus Christ etc).


----------



## Pickman's model (May 7, 2021)

Kevbad the Bad said:


> Tbf, Corbyn is at fault now, because voters are worried that he might come back, so just in case they vote Tory. Similarly the Labour vote under Brown and Milliband went down because voters then were concerned that Corbyn *might* become leader at some time in the future. Even after he eventually dies there's still the possibility he might rise from the dead. (It could happen - after all 'Che Guevara lives', 'Zapata lives', Jesus Christ etc).


¡Alfaro Vive, Carajo!


----------



## butchersapron (May 7, 2021)

killer b said:


> Richard Seymour's mailout just now is good.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Owen Jones' book on the whole Corbyn thing, has a useful chapter on the brexit fuck up. In it he claims that McDonnell - terrified of a labour PLP split which would make any domestic proposals null and void for decades,  spooked by the CHUK move and so prioritising avoiding this, swung his considerable weight behind the second referendum campaign and even towards arguing for remain - in tandem with Starmer (who he had pissed off by messing his lines on a radio interview and saying they wouldn't argue for remain but just for another ref). Thus losing all them seats and with it the election and much of the parties traditional support. I don't think anyone should be taking lessons off him.

edit: oh yeah, Jones identifies Clitheroe as being in the west country in that chapter as well.


----------



## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)

Wilf said:


> That there was a clamour on the doorstep for David Miliband sounds... _unlikely_.


Imaginary friend


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

butchersapron said:


> Owen Jone's book on the whole Corbyn thing, has a useful chapter on the brexit fuck up in it. In it he claims that McDonnell - terrified of a labour PLP split which would make any domestic proposals null and void for decades,  spooked by the CHUK move and so prioritising avoiding this, swung his considerable weight behind the second referendum campaign and even towards arguing for remain - in tandem with Starmer (who he had pissed off by messing his lines on a radio interview and saying they wouldn't argue for remain but just for another ref). Thus losing all them seats and with it the election and much of the parties traditional support. I don't think anyone should be taking lessons off him.


I think Seymour is pointing out McDonnell's lack of tactical nous in the paragraph you're quoting isn't he?


----------



## butchersapron (May 7, 2021)

killer b said:


> I think Seymour is pointing out McDonnell's lack of tactical nous in the paragraph you're quoting isn't he?


Yes, i'm highlighting just how disastrous listening to him has proven to be in the past.


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

can't really argue with that - although IMO Mcdonnell's decision to shift to backing a second ref was forced on him, it was forced on him because of other tactical mistakes he/they made further back, so...


----------



## marty21 (May 7, 2021)

Maybe Starmer should just apologise for being so remain-y . The toxicity of Brexit is still a thing,  and Starmer was an arch-remainer.


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

BobDavis said:


> Yes. Stephen Kinnock suggested Labour should vote for May’s brexit deal as least worst brexit & move on from there. Did not agree then but I do now. Hindsight eh ?


I often wonder what might have happened, had the Labour Party adopted Kinnock's position. I think there's a brief period when they could have done that and taken the party with them. Ho hum.


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## discokermit (May 7, 2021)

butchersapron said:


> Owen Jones' book on the whole Corbyn thing, has a useful chapter on the brexit fuck up. In it he claims that McDonnell - terrified of a labour PLP split which would make any domestic proposals null and void for decades,  spooked by the CHUK move and so prioritising avoiding this, swung his considerable weight behind the second referendum campaign and even towards arguing for remain - in tandem with Starmer (who he had pissed off by messing his lines on a radio interview and saying they wouldn't argue for remain but just for another ref). Thus losing all them seats and with it the election and much of the parties traditional support. I don't think anyone should be taking lessons off him.
> 
> edit: oh yeah, Jones identifies Clitheroe as being in the west country in that chapter as well.


if they collapsed in the face of change uk its very lucky they didnt win in '19. or ’17, for that matter. wouldnt take on their own mp's but were gonna take on the whole of the state and the ruling class? 
if corbyn couldnt rally the membership to fight this, what would he do in a coup? for a man obsessed with allende, he seems to have learned fuck all from him. or maybe he did learn and sold everyone out before he got novichoked.


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> I’m not convinced there is that much material difference. Aren’t a lot of people in Essex ex Londoners pushed out of the city by gentrification?


No not by gentrification, by making money and moving away from an east end they dont recognise anymore


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## teqniq (May 7, 2021)

Heh.


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## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

killer b said:


> Richard Seymour's mailout just now is good.: *Now, I've seen John McDonnell in the news explaining that he won't be asking for Starmer to resign. He says that would be behaving like the people who waged relentless, brutal war against Corbyn. I can see the game that McDonnell is playing*. However, the rhetoric speaks volumes about what went wrong with the Corbyn leadership, and what goes wrong with the British Left in general. It's far too much in love with the moral high ground, when political battles aren't usually won on the moral high ground. And that's why we have Starmer, and that's why Starmer will get far worse before anything gets better.


Just on that bit , the left in labour are in no position to push for anything - to do so would just show their weakness.


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## marty21 (May 7, 2021)

I don't see Starmer resigning , partly because I can't see anyone else who could take over. Other than non MP Andy Burnham , who I can't see wanting to give up the regional power he has to be an MP again for a party unlikely to win the next election.


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## redsquirrel (May 7, 2021)

Burnham and Khan have to be the two that ultimately best placed. High enough profile positions that they get plenty of coverage (more than most SC members) but insulated from failure/infighting of the party.


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## Raheem (May 7, 2021)

marty21 said:


> I don't see Starmer resigning , partly because I can't see anyone else who could take over. Other than non MP Andy Burnham , who I can't see wanting to give up the regional power he has to be an MP again for a party unlikely to win the next election.


Rehabilitating Starmer now is unrealistic. You don't have to be a pinko radical to see that (Andrew Adonis, above, seems to). From that point-of-view, the sane thing is to do what the Tories did repeatedly after 1997. Get rid and worry about how shit the new leader is later.

ETA: but I also don't see it happening.


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## Wilf (May 7, 2021)

marty21 said:


> I don't see Starmer resigning , partly because I can't see anyone else who could take over. Other than non MP Andy Burnham , who I can't see wanting to give up the regional power he has to be an MP again for a party unlikely to win the next election.


Of course if Corbyn hadn't had a couple of right wingers nominating him to get past the threshold figure, Burnham would probably have been leader for the last few years.  Even more speculatively, _might _have won in 2017. Or... lost in 2017 and 2019 and just been replaced by kieth...


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## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

Raheem said:


> Rehabilitating Starmer now is unrealistic. You don't have to be a pinko radical to see that (Andrew Adonis, above, seems to). From that point-of-view, the sane thing is to do what the Tories did repeatedly after 1997. Get rid and worry about how shit the new leader is later.
> 
> ETA: but I also don't see it happening.


I take it that the talk a couple of weeks ago about Johnson resigning is now at a lower volume?


----------



## Raheem (May 7, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I take it that the talk a couple of weeks ago about Johnson resigning is now at a lower volume?


Was there talk of that?


----------



## two sheds (May 7, 2021)

On the Boris Johnson thread did you miss it?


----------



## andysays (May 7, 2021)

Raheem said:


> Was there talk of that?


There was a bit of vague and unfocused talk that it was all getting a bit much and he might be thinking of chucking it in, but I don't think it was too serious.


----------



## Raheem (May 7, 2021)

OIC. I thought Brogdale meant there was real talk in the real world.

When the time comes, he won't resign. He'll be ascended into heaven.


----------



## Pickman's model (May 7, 2021)

Raheem said:


> OIC. I thought Brogdale meant there was real talk in the real world.
> 
> When the time comes, he won't resign. He'll be ascended into heaven.


Yes, he will flee in a helicopter as sir nikolae ceaușescu attempted to


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## Serene (May 7, 2021)

Keir Starmer has announced that the Labour Party have called it a day. They have sent in a winding up order and will cease as a party from next week.


----------



## wemakeyousoundb (May 7, 2021)

ska invita said:


> its more complex than that
> theres a lot of ex east Londoners - working class origins, now petty booj if not middle class, who have made good money and moved out of London, with an attitude of *"too many foreigners there now"*
> its not everyone in essex of course, and there are some seriously long term poor parts of essex
> But essex has a particular history of relatively recent people moving there (80s onwards) and taking a powerful narrative of "londons been lost to the foreigners" with them


yep heard that very phrase uttered in Essex


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## Pickman's model (May 7, 2021)

wemakeyousoundb said:


> yep heard that very phrase uttered in Essex


If we're going to damn everywhere where we've heard shitty comments I'll give you London too


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## MickiQ (May 7, 2021)

brogdale said:


> I take it that the talk a couple of weeks ago about Johnson resigning is now at a lower volume?


He isn't going anywhere for a while since his star is still clearly in the ascendent and no-one else in the Tories is going to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs, The only reason he might go is he can't manage to send all his brood to posh schools on the PM's salary and feels the need to get back out there to earn some dosh.
It wouldn't surprise me if there are those whispering in his ear to go for a snap GE next year not that there is much chance of them losing in 2024 at the moment.


----------



## Kaka Tim (May 7, 2021)




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## two sheds (May 7, 2021)

MickiQ said:


> The only reason he might go is he can't manage to send all his brood to posh schools on the PM's salary and feels the need to get back out there to earn some dosh.



Doesn't really need to resign for that, just take on a couple of directorships.


----------



## Dr. Furface (May 7, 2021)

marty21 said:


> Maybe Starmer should just apologise for being so remain-y . The toxicity of Brexit is still a thing,  and Starmer was an arch-remainer.


He's already tried to reposition himself and the party away from it - such as by ignoring it altogether, stating that remain is dead and whipping the party to vote for the deal - and it's made no perceptible positive difference. Just the opposite, as it's almost certainly lost him support and votes from many people for whom Brexit still matters. Clearly he didn't want to be seen as yesterday's man clinging on to a lost cause, but if anything he'd have been better off trying to keep remainers/rejoiners more onside rather than trying to cosy up to the red-wallers, because on that issue at least he now seems to be stuck in no-mans land. It's a big part of his larger image problem in that he isn't perceived as standing for anything much apart from his opposition to Johnson's redecoration expenses.


----------



## MickiQ (May 7, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Doesn't really need to resign for that, just take on a couple of directorships.


Is he allowed to do that as PM? (not that he would care either way of course)


----------



## two sheds (May 7, 2021)

Not if there's _anybody _watching.


----------



## hitmouse (May 7, 2021)

Have we had this? Via Huw Lemmey, Polly Toynbee going all-out with "the voters have let Keir Starmer down":


----------



## Shechemite (May 7, 2021)

the same Polly Toynbee that sent her kids to extremely expensive public schools


----------



## Sasaferrato (May 7, 2021)

two sheds said:


> Doesn't really need to resign for that, just take on a couple of directorships.



He can't do that as PM. 

I predict he will be gone this year, to give Rishi time to bed in before the next election.


----------



## Edie (May 7, 2021)

magneze said:


> Some "analysis" from Laura Kuenssberg:
> "The Hartlepool result is not a surprise for Labour. And it's important to remember that about 10,000 people voted for the Brexit Party in 2019 there, and at an early glance it seemed many of those voters switched across to the Tories."
> 
> 
> ...


Oh god it was absolutely glorious to hear of Labour getting a kicking in Hartlepool this morning. The absolute arrogance of them in an area with one of the highest leave votes in the country, and Labour all mealy mouthed and saying fuck all about it hoping it goes away. The fact is what I heard on the radio this morning is absolutely _bob on_. Labour are not a party of the working class anymore. They are a party for graduate, liberal, Twitter-woke, remain-voting Londoners. I’m one of them I should know (graduate not remain voter). London is Labour- red. Hartlepool not so much.

If Labour actually want the working class vote they are gonna have to actually start _listening_ to what people want, like Brexit, and stop thinking that people are stupid and wrong and they will realise the error of their ways at some point   Five years since 2016 and Labour _still_ don’t get it. The people of Hartlepool think the Tories are more likely to invest in their town than Labour and they could well be right. Even with the Tories being demonstrably corrupt, nepotistic, morally-bankrupt Eton pig wankers. What a fucking shit show


----------



## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

Edie said:


> Oh god it was absolutely glorious to hear of Labour getting a kicking in Hartlepool this morning. The absolute arrogance of them in an area with one of the highest leave votes in the country, and Labour all mealy mouthed and saying fuck all about it hoping it goes away. The fact is what I heard on the radio this morning is absolutely _bob on_. Labour are not a party of the working class anymore. They are a party for graduate, liberal, Twitter-woke, remain-voting Londoners. I’m one of them I should know (graduate not remain voter). London is Labour- red. Hartlepool not so much.
> 
> If Labour actually want the working class vote they are gonna have to actually start _listening_ to what people want, like Brexit, and stop thinking that people are stupid and wrong and they will realise the error of their ways at some point   Five years since 2016 and Labour _still_ don’t get it. The people of Hartlepool think the Tories are more likely to invest in their town than Labour and they could well be right. Even with the Tories being demonstrably corrupt, nepotistic, morally-bankrupt Eton pig wankers. What a fucking shit show


The right party of capital have decided that, as their corporate masters pay no tax, it's fine to spaff public money derived from taxes on labour. The Starmerites are still mired in old thinking of Brownite prudence wrt to the public purse.


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## Edie (May 7, 2021)

brogdale said:


> The right party of capital have decided that, as their corporate masters pay no tax, it's fine to spaff public money derived from taxes on labour. The Starmerites are still mired in old thinking of Brownite prudence wrt to the public purse.


I have literally no idea what that means but others probably will!


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## butchersapron (May 7, 2021)

Edie said:


> Oh god it was absolutely glorious to hear of Labour getting a kicking in Hartlepool this morning. The absolute arrogance of them in an area with one of the highest leave votes in the country, and Labour all mealy mouthed and saying fuck all about it hoping it goes away. The fact is what I heard on the radio this morning is absolutely _bob on_. Labour are not a party of the working class anymore. They are a party for graduate, liberal, Twitter-woke, remain-voting Londoners. I’m one of them I should know (graduate not remain voter). London is Labour- red. Hartlepool not so much.
> 
> If Labour actually want the working class vote they are gonna have to actually start _listening_ to what people want, like Brexit, and stop thinking that people are stupid and wrong and they will realise the error of their ways at some point   Five years since 2016 and Labour _still_ don’t get it. The people of Hartlepool think the Tories are more likely to invest in their town than Labour and they could well be right. Even with the Tories being demonstrably corrupt, nepotistic, morally-bankrupt Eton pig wankers. What a fucking shit show


Pig-fucker, not pig-wanker.


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## Edie (May 7, 2021)

butchersapron said:


> Pig-fucker, not pig-wanker.


My mistake.


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## Gramsci (May 7, 2021)

I live in a predominantly working class Council ward in central London and people still vote Labour. My area Lambeth was also Remain.

To add the Council ward in central London I live in is in the top 20 per cent of most deprived in the country. Always vote Labour.


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## brogdale (May 7, 2021)

Edie said:


> I have literally no idea what that means but others probably will!


The vermin are happy to buy votes with 'socialism' that we pay for...as long as their wealth is defended from any threat.


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## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)

Dr. Furface said:


> He's already tried to reposition himself and the party away from it - such as by ignoring it altogether, stating that remain is dead and whipping the party to vote for the deal - and it's made no perceptible positive difference. Just the opposite, as it's almost certainly lost him support and votes from many people for whom Brexit still matters. Clearly he didn't want to be seen as yesterday's man clinging on to a lost cause, but if anything he'd have been better off trying to keep remainers/rejoiners more onside rather than trying to cosy up to the red-wallers, because on that issue at least he now seems to be stuck in no-mans land. It's a big part of his larger image problem in that he isn't perceived as standing for anything much apart from his opposition to Johnson's redecoration expenses.


So where are these hordes of remainers/rejoiners going to go if Starmer doesn't keep them more onside?


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## killer b (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> So where are these hordes of remainers/rejoiners going to go if Starmer doesn't keep them more onside?


greens and lib dems by the looks of it


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## butchersapron (May 7, 2021)

Gramsci said:


> I live in a predominantly working class Council ward in central London and people still vote Labour. My area Lambeth was also Remain.


It's the posh votes uselessly piled up across the south in 2017 - in won seats - that proved too  tempting to people whose social profile matched those seats. A chance to break from the old w/c trad vote and their interests. 100 years  sold for a mess of artisanal pottage. Now, the slow death. Pasokification in slow motion. You were never part of the conversation - your vote - accurately taken for granted and as endorsement then weaponised against the former. Necessarily hostile.


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## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)

Gramsci said:


> I live in a predominantly working class Council ward in central London and people still vote Labour. My area Lambeth was also Remain.


They must have the patience of saints tbh or must be some sort of penance. Who possibly could vote for Labour these days with any enthusiasm?


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## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)

killer b said:


> greens and lib dems by the looks of it


in any marginal constituencies ?


----------



## Benjamin F (May 7, 2021)

I'm no defender of Labour (or any representative political party) but there is a centre-left party that is poised to win its fourth consecutive election victory and be returned to power despite an almost universally hostile national media. Labourites wedded to bland forms of social democracy might learn something from the SNP. Yet oddly they seem more willing to ape the Tories.


----------



## Jeff Robinson (May 7, 2021)

After the devastating results for Labour in Hartlepool heads will roll. But enough about Dr Paul Williams' progressive utopia Saudi Arabia.


----------



## JTG (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> in any marginal constituencies ?


It's an interesting question. Bristol West had a Labour majority of 37,000 in 2017 and 28,000 in 2019. Greens doubled their vote in 2019 (to 18,000, now in second place). I fully expect almost all of the council seats in the constituency to go Green when they're counted on Sunday - with the possible exception of Lawrence Hill (and even that may be close). Would that mean the seat would be considered under threat?
Bristol NW is a Labour/Tory marginal, 5k majorities for Darren Jones in 17 & 19. Parts of the seat may be under threat from a Green surge and if those votes were lost in a GE then the Tories may be back there


----------



## editor (May 7, 2021)

It pains me to say it but the UK has ended up like the US with elections being voted for on 'personality' because politics in the age of social media is, like, well boring. People want fun-sized soundbites rather than grown up debate and analysis.

Starmer clearly has none, and I'm struggling to think of any possible candidates in the party right now.


----------



## gentlegreen (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> So where are these hordes of remainers/rejoiners going to go if Starmer doesn't keep them more onside?


I joined the LP in 2019 because even Corbyn's "lexit" was preferable to what was inevitably on its way ...
Since I hope to leave the country before the next GE, maybe it's time to stop pretending I had any real political enthusiasm.
Ironically I will retain the right to vote for life now and not just 15 years ...


----------



## Gramsci (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> They must have the patience of saints tbh or must be some sort of penance. Who possibly could vote for Labour these days with any enthusiasm?



There is no sign in my area (central London) that people will switch to Tories. Or any other party at this time in large numbers. And Labour voters around my way are not all the stereotype of metropolitan Londoners. Looks like Khan will get in

I did put Khan as first choice for Mayor.


----------



## JTG (May 7, 2021)

Gramsci said:


> There is no sign in my area (central London) that people will switch to Tories. Or any other party at this time in large numbers. And Labour voters around my way are not all the stereotype of metropolitan Londoners. Looks like Khan will get in
> 
> I did put Khan as first choice for Mayor.


Hate to say this but...


----------



## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)

Gramsci said:


> There is no sign in my area (central London) that people will switch to Tories. Or any other party at this time in large numbers. And Labour voters around my way are not all the stereotype of metropolitan Londoners. Looks like Khan will get in
> 
> I did put Khan as first choice for Mayor.


And?


----------



## chilango (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> in any marginal constituencies ?



Reading East. Labour won in 2017 and held in 2019 partly thanks to borrowed LibDem and Green votes.


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> in any marginal constituencies ?


sure. it's a process that already started in 2019 tbf - plenty of seats where the TIG or lib dem vote was the difference that helped the tories in - expect there's plenty more where we could see similar next time. 

Labour are fucked tbh. I honestly don't know what they could do now to sort it out.


----------



## JTG (May 7, 2021)

JTG said:


> It's an interesting question. Bristol West had a Labour majority of 37,000 in 2017 and 28,000 in 2019. Greens doubled their vote in 2019 (to 18,000, now in second place). I fully expect almost all of the council seats in the constituency to go Green when they're counted on Sunday - with the possible exception of Lawrence Hill (and even that may be close). Would that mean the seat would be considered under threat?
> Bristol NW is a Labour/Tory marginal, 5k majorities for Darren Jones in 17 & 19. Parts of the seat may be under threat from a Green surge and if those votes were lost in a GE then the Tories may be back there


As an aside, Jones is one of those anti-Corbyn rightists (like Duffield) who owe their election victories to Corbyn/Momentum support and who could very well lose without it


----------



## tim (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Mandelson saying it was down to the two C's- Covid and Corbyn and as one person on the doorstep allegedly told him  'Sort yourselves out, sort yourselves out. You picked the wrong brother and you ended up with Corbyn so that’s goodbye to you. When you’ve sorted yourselves out, we’ll look at you again’.



Yes, I too believe that Labour picked the wrong Corbyn brother.


----------



## Shechemite (May 7, 2021)

Edie said:


> Oh god it was absolutely glorious to hear of Labour getting a kicking in Hartlepool this morning. The absolute arrogance of them in an area with one of the highest leave votes in the country, and Labour all mealy mouthed and saying fuck all about it hoping it goes away. The fact is what I heard on the radio this morning is absolutely _bob on_. Labour are not a party of the working class anymore. They are a party for graduate, liberal, Twitter-woke, remain-voting Londoners. I’m one of them I should know (graduate not remain voter). London is Labour- red. Hartlepool not so much.
> 
> If Labour actually want the working class vote they are gonna have to actually start _listening_ to what people want, like Brexit, and stop thinking that people are stupid and wrong and they will realise the error of their ways at some point   Five years since 2016 and Labour _still_ don’t get it. The people of Hartlepool think the Tories are more likely to invest in their town than Labour and they could well be right. Even with the Tories being demonstrably corrupt, nepotistic, morally-bankrupt Eton pig wankers. What a fucking shit show



You are khalid Mahmoud and I claim my £5










						Labour MP says Londoners and 'woke warriors' are ruining party
					

Birmingham Perry Barr MP Khalid Mahmood predicted Labour would lose the West Midlands mayoral election




					www.birminghammail.co.uk


----------



## redsquirrel (May 7, 2021)

gentlegreen said:


> I joined the LP in 2019 because even Corbyn's "lexit" was preferable to what was inevitably on its way ...


The "lexit" that involved holding a second referendum  
Did you actually know anything about the party you joined?


----------



## gentlegreen (May 7, 2021)

redsquirrel said:


> The "lexit" that involved holding a second referendum
> Did you actually know anything about the party you joined?


I lost track of exactly where they were at by the end - it seems so long ago now...


----------



## JTG (May 7, 2021)

Anyone going on about 'woke' people is a fucking idiot


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

Edie said:


> They are a party for graduate, liberal, Twitter-woke, remain-voting Londoners. I’m one of them I should know (graduate not remain voter). London is Labour- red.


maybe not even that


----------



## Sue (May 7, 2021)

killer b said:


> maybe not even that



Nah.


----------



## Monkeygrinder's Organ (May 7, 2021)

Still can't see. They might as well have a troll though, it will probably be enough to put the shits up Starmer even more.


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

Sue said:


> Nah.


No - but it's worth remembering that Labour's dominance in the capital is built on pretty shaky ground. Like butchers says, they've abandoned an electorate who've supported them for a century for an electorate who can - and will - quite easily fuck off elsewhere next election.


----------



## Sue (May 7, 2021)

killer b said:


> No - but it's worth remembering that Labour's dominance in the capital is built on pretty shaky ground. Like butchers says, they've abandoned an electorate who've supported them for a century for an electorate who can - and will - quite easily fuck off elsewhere next election.


Yeah but it would never be Bailey they fucked off to.


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

Sue said:


> Yeah but it would never be Bailey they fucked off to.


I don't think Bailey is going to win, I just thought it was a funny answer to edie's post about 'red' london that's all.


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

Sue said:


> Yeah but it would never be Bailey they fucked off to.


It seem massively unlikely but London does have previous by voting in Boris Johnson for mayor..twice?
Its not impossible: a lot of Labour vote could go Sian/Green, All the suburban Tories not knowing how bad Bailey is and just ticking the Tory box
I cant see it happening but theres some serious swinging in the polls out there

Also Sadiq Khan is being blamed for some crazy traffic in London - its horrendous out there


----------



## ska invita (May 7, 2021)

ska invita said:


> It seem massively unlikely but London does have previous by voting in Boris Johnson for mayor..twice?
> Its not impossible: a lot of Labour vote could go Sian/Green, All the suburban Tories not knowing how bad Bailey is and just ticking the Tory box
> I cant see it happening but theres some serious swinging in the polls out there
> 
> Also Sadiq Khan is being blamed for some crazy traffic in London - its horrendous out there


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

I'm curious about the contrast between Khan and Burnham - Burnham's record as GM mayor is about as underwhelming as Khan's in London, but he's the King of the North while Khan doesn't get anyone excited. Is it all down to that one speech?


----------



## Dom Traynor (May 7, 2021)

Any comments from those predicting big things for the NIP? Less than 1% of the vote (and around what I predicted) must be pretty crushing. Especially given the average life span on internet only political projects...


----------



## Raheem (May 7, 2021)

NIP didn't even stand any mayoral candidates, did they?


----------



## lazythursday (May 7, 2021)

Dom Traynor said:


> Any comments from those predicting big things for the NIP? Less than 1% of the vote (and around what I predicted) must be pretty crushing. Especially given the average life span on internet only political projects...


Very disappointing - but the fact the party name wasn't on the ballot gives them a bit of a get out clause on this one I think.


----------



## killer b (May 7, 2021)

I doubt any of us are actually crushed tbh, we just got it wrong. Happens from time to time.

I think I just wanted something to get behind really, and they seemed like fun.


----------



## lazythursday (May 7, 2021)

Raheem said:


> NIP didn't even stand any mayoral candidates, did they?


They didn't, cos it costs £5K


----------



## Gramsci (May 7, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> And?



To be honest I'm at a loss. Been thinking of your post. The Hartlepool result is crushing defeat for Labour.

In my area despite the right of Labour running Council for years in Lambeth and really annoying locals people still vote Labour.

Greens have made some headway in Lambeth. But not in working class ward like mine. Despite putting up good local candidates.

Corbyn did not put off Labour voters in my area. My non scientific poll would say people in my Council ward vote Labour as they feel their lives would be worse under Tories.

I object to the caricature of London being home of metropolitan woke students. In fact some of what are considered Woke issues like statues my Progress led Council has taken aboard. My Council ward will be renamed Windrush. This has not caused outrage locally. Far from it.

I'm trying to think why in my area Labour vote has not collapsed. Unlike Hartlepool.

To add BLM was big in my area. Large number of local Black Young people joined it. So Labour administration had to take it up.


----------



## JTG (May 7, 2021)

Dom Traynor said:


> Any comments from those predicting big things for the NIP? Less than 1% of the vote (and around what I predicted) must be pretty crushing. Especially given the average life span on internet only political projects...


As per previous comments, too early to say. Could be something, could be nothing. Suspect they may do better if a big city by election came up and with more time to organise. But then again it could be hot air.


----------



## Gramsci (May 7, 2021)

ska invita said:


> View attachment 267211



None of my Van Driver mates voted Khan. The LTN thing has been really divisive issue. I don't know how it will affect Labour vote in future in London. 

LTNs are seen in some quarters as middle class green left vs ordinary working class Londoners. 

This may come to nothing. But doing this in pandemic is bordering on the kind of we know best Labour Party way of doing things that winds people up.


----------



## Raheem (May 7, 2021)

Gramsci said:


> To be honest I'm at a loss. Been thinking of your post. The Hartlepool result is crushing defeat for Labour.
> 
> In my area despite the right of Labour running Council for years in Lambeth and really annoying locals people still vote Labour.
> 
> ...


I think maybe part of the thing is Starmer's Labour being seen as being run by Londoners according to London values. It's far from being the whole story of course, but it is naturally not going to bother Londoners so much.


----------



## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)

Raheem said:


> NIP didn't even stand any mayoral candidates, did they?


seeing as they only formed a month or so before the elections I'm not surprised tbh


----------



## Gramsci (May 7, 2021)

Raheem said:


> I think maybe part of the thing is Starmer's Labour being seen as being run by Londoners according to London values. It's far from being the whole story of course, but it is naturally not going to bother Londoners so much.



Starmer did annoy people in my local area by saying BLM was just a moment. So in London the perception is different.

I am wondering if a national Labour party is no longer feasible in long term. Whether Starmer or anyone who might replace him has an impossible task. My partners home town Madrid has locally based Mas Madrid which did reasonably well at the the Madrid vote. They did much better than PSOE.


----------



## The39thStep (May 7, 2021)

killer b said:


> I'm curious about the contrast between Khan and Burnham - Burnham's record as GM mayor is about as underwhelming as Khan's in London, but he's the King of the North while Khan doesn't get anyone excited. Is it all down to that one speech?


Anywhere or anyone with a list of achievements/failures to compare?


----------



## Idris2002 (May 7, 2021)

Pasokification is richly deserved, and swiftly coming. It will occur, however, in a political system that will not be open to any replacements. Labour will stagger on as a zombie party, akin to the "bloc parties" of East Germany, which were intended to give that regime a fig leaf of legitimacy to the SED regime while having no real independent existence of any kind.

Syriza for all its faults, could replace Pasok, but that was only because the Greek system was open enough to allow that. No such opening exists in the UK.

Given the open and rank corruption of the smash-and-grab Tories and their single-party regime, what this suggests that about the immediate and long-term futures of the United Kingdom is that neither will be good. A long period of stagnation of every sort, economic, political and cultural, followed by an ignomious crash.


----------



## William of Walworth (May 7, 2021)

Pickman's model said:


> you should have tried directing the canvass, which can readily be done from a public house



"Back in the day"  when such was allowed, I would have been the best *Treating Organiser* ever!!


----------



## oryx (May 7, 2021)

editor said:


> It pains me to say it but the UK has ended up like the US with elections being voted for on 'personality' because politics in the age of social media is, like, well boring. People want fun-sized soundbites rather than grown up debate and analysis.
> 
> Starmer clearly has none, and I'm struggling to think of any possible candidates in the party right now.


I agree with you to some extent but how'd you explain Drakeford (seems like a decent guy but one with a charisma bypass) and Welsh Labour?


----------



## Rimbaud (May 8, 2021)

Dom Traynor said:


> Any comments from those predicting big things for the NIP? Less than 1% of the vote (and around what I predicted) must be pretty crushing. Especially given the average life span on internet only political projects...



I am disappointed but I am still a paid up member and will keep the faith.

They aren't even registered yet and their name wasn't on the ballot paper. Also, Hartlepool has an elderly population and they aren't really the likely demographic for NIP support.

It gained them experience as a young and still unregistered party. I can still see them doing well in the likes of Liverpool, Newcastle, Sheffield, and Leeds in future.

The main takeaway from this election is that Labour is unsalvageable. The old industrial working class of the 80s and earlier is gone, but they failed to recognise the urban tenant precariat who backed Corbyn as the 21st Century Proletariat, and dismissed them as irrelevant and privileged student radicals as if this was the 1960s. In doing so, they have doomed themselves.

This is why you have places like South Tyneside going Green Party. I voted Green but I don't trust them because in my experience the Green Party contains too many posh posers who talk social justice but don't really give a shit beyond posturing. But nevertheless there is a space which has opened up for an alternative to the Labour Party, and NIP are still a strong contender imo. We may be at a stage now where the Labour Party are such a mess that they will no longer benefit from FPTP and people will feel less like a vote for a smaller party is letting the Tories in.


----------



## butchersapron (May 8, 2021)

Hey! What happened to democratising the party first,.

No real options but burnham.

Was your idea before a low vote turnout loss that labour was over rimbaud?


----------



## Rimbaud (May 8, 2021)

butchersapron said:


> Hey! What happened to democratising the party first,. NO Options but burnham.
> 
> Was your idea before a low vote turnout loss that labour was over rimbaud?



Yes, that's why I joined the NIP.


----------



## butchersapron (May 8, 2021)

Rimbaud said:


> Yes, that's why I joined the NIP.


Ah right, sorry.


----------



## oryx (May 8, 2021)

Rimbaud said:


> The old industrial working class of the 80s and earlier is gone, but they failed to recognise the urban tenant precariat who backed Corbyn as the 21st Century Proletariat, and dismissed them as irrelevant and privileged student radicals as if this was the 1960s. In doing so, they have doomed themselves.
> 
> This is why you have places like South Tyneside going Green Party. I voted Green but I don't trust them because in my experience the Green Party contains too many posh posers who talk social justice but don't really give a shit beyond posturing.



One of the good things about Corbyn's leadership was that he attracted young and radical-ish voters. I suspect that a lot of these have gone over to the Greens, or not bothered to vote. 

I don't want to see Labour becoming that party of managerial 'centrist dad' types which under Starmer it is starting to do. (Maybe 'starting to' is an understatement).

As for the Greens - I knew some people through my previous line of work who worked for Brighton Council when it was Green, and did not have good things to say about how they treated their employees. The Greens get positive publicity because Caroline Lucas is a highly respected MP.


----------



## oryx (May 8, 2021)

Benjamin F said:


> I'm no defender of Labour (or any representative political party) but there is a centre-left party that is poised to win its fourth consecutive election victory and be returned to power despite an almost universally hostile national media. Labourites wedded to bland forms of social democracy might learn something from the SNP. Yet oddly they seem more willing to ape the Tories.



IMVHO one of the best posts in this thread.


----------



## PR1Berske (May 8, 2021)




----------



## butchersapron (May 8, 2021)

yep


PR1Berske said:


>


----------



## Wilf (May 8, 2021)

killer b said:


> sure. it's a process that already started in 2019 tbf - plenty of seats where the TIG or lib dem vote was the difference that helped the tories in - expect there's plenty more where we could see similar next time.
> 
> Labour are fucked tbh. I honestly don't know what they could do now to sort it out.


I was wondering yesterday, as a kind of thought experiment, whether there was a project/set of policies/position/sell, that the Labour right could actually put together to win back ground.  It would have to include some level of commitment to public services, an attack on fat cats but not the middle classes, there'd be some level of increased immigration control and then... what? Blair has used up most of the sparkly lies about 'modernisation' and helping the poor by making the rich richer.   There's probably some kind of postwar line about no going back to pre-Covid times and building the peace.  But all that adds up to nothing more coherent than the shite on Miliband's tablet of stone.  I'm not sure there's any magic dust for some post-Starmer Svengali to scatter about.


----------



## Raheem (May 8, 2021)

Gramsci said:


> Starmer did annoy people in my local area by saying BLM was just a moment. So in London the perception is different.


Not necessarily. No sign that won him fans anywhere else, is there?


----------



## Raheem (May 8, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> Anywhere or anyone with a list of achievements/failures to compare?


Not sure mayor's have achievements and accomplishments, at least not on a scale that matters in an election. What they do have is a personal platform and PR people.


----------



## Dogsauce (May 8, 2021)

That fucking Johnson inflatable is peak arrogant triumphalism, rubbing people’s noses in it. Was it made by a newspaper or the Tories themselves?


----------



## The39thStep (May 8, 2021)

Raheem said:


> Not sure mayor's have achievements and accomplishments, at least not on a scale that matters in an election. What they do have is a personal platform and PR people.


???


----------



## JTG (May 8, 2021)

Still reeling at Labour selecting the anti-Brexit bloke who helped remove critical care from Hartlepool's hospital as their candidate in the strongly pro-Brexit and A&E loving town.


----------



## killer b (May 8, 2021)

he was a bad choice, but I reckon all that's only worth a few points. It would have been a wipe-out either way.


----------



## JTG (May 8, 2021)

It illustrates just how clueless they are though


----------



## Smokeandsteam (May 8, 2021)

Wilf said:


> I was wondering yesterday, as a kind of thought experiment, whether there was a project/set of policies/position/sell, that the Labour right could actually put together to win back ground.  It would have to include some level of commitment to public services, an attack on fat cats but not the middle classes, there'd be some level of increased immigration control and then... what? Blair has used up most of the sparkly lies about 'modernisation' and helping the poor by making the rich richer.   There's probably some kind of postwar line about no going back to pre-Covid times and building the peace.  But all that adds up to nothing more coherent than the shite on Miliband's tablet of stone.  I'm not sure there's any magic dust for some post-Starmer Svengali to scatter about.



It’s actually quite straightforward. Engage the Tories about the reconstruction of the economy post covid. Pledge a Biden style infrastructure plan (a mix of Keynesian boosterism for capital and relief for the most poor) covering broadband, transport, housing and health. Launch a town by town regeneration plan and hammer these on every leaflet and speech. If the Tories pledge x for a town Labour pledges to do more. Make a fulsome and genuine apology for the back turning on Brexit: and mean it. Set out a strategy to tackle poverty pay starting in the public sector. Continue to point out the Tories are a sleazy posh chumocracy. Emphasise the value of programmes and policies that benefit _all sections _of the working class with tailored messages for different demographics.

It’s pretty basic stuff.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 8, 2021)

Wilf said:


> I was wondering yesterday, as a kind of thought experiment, whether there was a project/set of policies/position/sell, that the Labour right could actually put together to win back ground.  It would have to include some level of commitment to public services, an attack on fat cats but not the middle classes, there'd be some level of increased immigration control and then... what? Blair has used up most of the sparkly lies about 'modernisation' and helping the poor by making the rich richer.   There's probably some kind of postwar line about no going back to pre-Covid times and building the peace.  But all that adds up to nothing more coherent than the shite on Miliband's tablet of stone.  I'm not sure there's any magic dust for some post-Starmer Svengali to scatter about.



I spent a lot of time with the news channels on and Mandelson was popping up everywhere with his usual lines, but I can’t remember him suggesting a single practical policy Labour could follow right now that would appeal to anyone.


----------



## brogdale (May 8, 2021)

JTG said:


> It illustrates just how clueless they are though


Or arrogant and tribally/ideologically inward looking.


----------



## brogdale (May 8, 2021)

Mr Moose said:


> I spent a lot of time with the news channels on and Mandelson was popping up everywhere with his usual lines, but I can’t remember him suggesting a single practical policy Labour could follow right now that would appeal to anyone.


There's a good reason for that.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 8, 2021)

brogdale said:


> There's a good reason for that.


That he is a reanimated corpse was my guess.


----------



## philosophical (May 8, 2021)

The cunts who voted Tory voted for cunts who cut nurses pay in a pandemic.
Have to live with the fact that those who dominate are cunts.
Bollocks to the analysis, what is there to analyse?
Pieces of shit vote Tory, and love it.


----------



## JTG (May 8, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Or arrogant and tribally/ideologically inward looking.


Indeed. Collective failure to read the post 2008 world, which is quite something given it's now 13 years since the credit crunch


----------



## brogdale (May 8, 2021)

Mr Moose said:


> That he is a reanimated corpse was my guess.


No, more obvious than that.


----------



## killer b (May 8, 2021)

JTG said:


> It illustrates just how clueless they are though


if the tories had lost we'd all be talking about how clueless it was to parachute in a rich farmer with no links to the town. as it turns out candidate choice is waaaay down the list of mistakes the LP made on this.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 8, 2021)

brogdale said:


> No, more obvious than that.



Well yes, he represents a completely redundant and out of touch centre view.


----------



## Mr Moose (May 8, 2021)

philosophical said:


> The cunts who voted Tory voted for cunts who cut nurses pay in a pandemic.
> Have to live with the fact that those who dominate are cunts.
> Bollocks to the analysis, what is there to analyse?
> Pieces of shit vote Tory, and love it.


Ok you can feel that the day after, but it’s not going to get you very far.

This form of Toryism for the moment looks monolithic, but it’s actually a Johnson resignation/coronary away from a crisis.

So plan for that. Have an opposition inspired by honesty, fairness, confidence in how the World can be changed and a desire to help waiting.


----------



## brogdale (May 8, 2021)

Hartlepool becomes the 12th (out of 65) constituency in the most deprived decile to return a tory MP.
It joins:

Blackpool South
Walsall North
Birmingham Northfield
Burnley
Great Grimsby
Stoke-on-Trent Central
West Bromwich West
Clacton
Blackpool North & Cleverleys
Bolton North East
& West Bromwich East

in that.


----------



## tony.c (May 8, 2021)

Dogsauce said:


> That fucking Johnson inflatable is peak arrogant triumphalism, rubbing people’s noses in it. Was it made by a newspaper or the Tories themselves?


Supposedly the £2,000 was raised by a group of Hartlepool 'business people' - presumably Tories.


----------



## BobDavis (May 8, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> It’s actually quite straightforward. Engage the Tories about the reconstruction of the economy post covid. Pledge a Biden style infrastructure plan (a mix of Keynesian boosterism for capital and relief for the most poor) covering broadband, transport, housing and health. Launch a town by town regeneration plan and hammer these on every leaflet and speech. If the Tories pledge x for a town Labour pledges to do more. Make a fulsome and genuine apology for the back turning on Brexit: and mean it. Set out a strategy to tackle poverty pay starting in the public sector. Continue to point out the Tories are a sleazy posh chumocracy. Emphasise the value of programmes and policies that benefit _all sections _of the working class with tailored messages for different demographics.
> 
> It’s pretty basic stuff.


It should not be too difficult for Labour to be more socialist that the Tories need to be to keep their promises. They should point out that despite Tory claims Corbyn‘s policies would bankrupt the country the Tories have spent far more due to Covid without bankrupting the country & also point out that national debt is not the same as personal debt. Tories have been socialist in the 50s & 60s though building huge amounts of council houses.


----------



## philosophical (May 8, 2021)

Mr Moose said:


> Ok you can feel that the day after, but it’s not going to get you very far.



I have only a little time left anyway.
The Tories have been in power most of my life.
How far am I or anybody supposed to get?
Although I do like the idea of industrial action fuelled by hatred.
Tories don’t like that.


----------



## butchersapron (May 8, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Hartlepool becomes the 12th (out of 65) constituency in the most deprived decile to return a tory MP.
> It joins:
> 
> Blackpool South
> ...


So what are you doing wrong?


----------



## Dogsauce (May 8, 2021)

butchersapron said:


> So what are you doing wrong?



not Twittering enough, obvs.


----------



## BobDavis (May 8, 2021)

butchersapron said:


> So what are you doing wrong?


Not promising to be more socialist than the Tories are promising to be.


----------



## The39thStep (May 8, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> It’s actually quite straightforward. Engage the Tories about the reconstruction of the economy post covid. Pledge a Biden style infrastructure plan (a mix of Keynesian boosterism for capital and relief for the most poor) covering broadband, transport, housing and health. Launch a town by town regeneration plan and hammer these on every leaflet and speech. If the Tories pledge x for a town Labour pledges to do more. Make a fulsome and genuine apology for the back turning on Brexit: and mean it. Set out a strategy to tackle poverty pay starting in the public sector. Continue to point out the Tories are a sleazy posh chumocracy. Emphasise the value of programmes and policies that benefit _all sections _of the working class with tailored messages for different demographics.
> 
> It’s pretty basic stuff.


This is good. Smart targeted tactics, locally tailored, something that a smart centrist or right Labour should be able to do. The left could add trade union involvement and empowering communities in these plans and local protests at companies firing and rehiring. Won't happen though, they haven't the intellectual capacity and savviness unless they import Bidens advisers. Labour  are stale, stuck in marketing strategies that are out of date reliant on suits, pints of beer, 'gaining' trust and trying to look competent and safe. Obsessed with being seen to be hard on the left rather than benefiting from their energy but chaperoning them.  In comparison, the Tories have been smart and bold tearing up the rulebook.
God helps us that we advocating that Labour needs to be Bidenised but that's how bad it is.


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## Sue (May 8, 2021)

philosophical said:


> I have only a little time left anyway.
> The Tories have been in power most of my life.
> How far am I or anybody supposed to get?
> Although I do like the idea of industrial action fuelled by hatred.
> Tories don’t like that.


Why do you give a fuck about what Tories do or don't like?


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## Mr Moose (May 8, 2021)

Khalid Mahmood’s ‘woke warriors’ comment getting a lot of coverage. It’s a readymade soundbite for the media’s favourite Labour narrative.

People with this view always hark back to a time Labour was less alienated from its base.

But Labour members have held views about a wide variety of issues at least since after WW2, CND, anti racism, feminism, gay rights etc. These are not a problem for potential voters who don’t care so much about them if the Labour Party is fighting their corner. It’s not doing so, but not because it loves BLM instead.


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## brogdale (May 8, 2021)

butchersapron said:


> So what are you doing wrong?


Not a question that those engaged in electoral opposition appear capable or willing to address.


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## two sheds (May 8, 2021)

Dogsauce said:


> That fucking Johnson inflatable is peak arrogant triumphalism, rubbing people’s noses in it. Was it made by a newspaper or the Tories themselves?


I read was paid for by Hartlepool businesses who claimed they're not actually tory, just celebrating a new era type thing for Hartlepool. It's fucking naff though isn't it.


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## Smokeandsteam (May 8, 2021)

The39thStep said:


> God helps us that we advocating that Labour needs to be Bidenised but that's how bad it is.



100%

When you think about the serious figures on the centre right of the Labour Party in history, - like say Ernie Bevan or Jim Callahan and compare them in terms of their ability to enunciate an idea, their grasp of how power could be used and how they communicated in language that might resonate with all of its faults and contingencies - to the empty suits who inherited the mantle like Starmer then the extent of the decomposition/the collapse into itself  becomes glaringly apparent.

It seems to me that Bidenisation is the last chance Labour has to avoid Pasokification or more likely without PR a zombie state accompanying a slow prolonged death. That _is _how bad it is.


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## AmateurAgitator (May 8, 2021)

Labour holds piss-up near brewery
					

Labour yesterday held a piss-up just round the corner from a brewery after failing to organise the event in the brewery itself.




					newsthump.com


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## philosophical (May 8, 2021)

Sue said:


> Why do you give a fuck about what Tories do or don't like?



I hate them and want to piss them off any way possible.


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## brogdale (May 8, 2021)

Fisher makes a valid point:


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## two sheds (May 8, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Fisher makes a valid point:



All part of the 'unite and unify' the party. Sounds good but not at all what he had in mind when he said it.


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## planetgeli (May 8, 2021)

killer b said:


> if the tories had lost we'd all be talking about how clueless it was to parachute in a rich farmer with no links to the town. as it turns out candidate choice is waaaay down the list of mistakes the LP made on this.



Yeah, that's not quite what you said in post 11 of this thread replying to my 'Labour don't have a chance in hell of winning this.'



killer b said:


> it doesn't look great for them looking at the 2019 figures, *but it really depends who's standing, *and the forces in play are different to 2019 - presumably Farage's new lot (Reform?) will be up, which will suck up a lot of the BP vote, and there isn't the 'lend the tories a vote to push through Brexit' current - difficult to balance up atm.



Starmer has been a complete stark bollock naked disaster for Labour. It wasn't difficult to know this before this election. Nothing changed in the last 6 weeks.


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## killer b (May 8, 2021)

planetgeli said:


> Yeah, that's not quite what you said in post 11 of this thread replying to my 'Labour don't have a chance in hell of winning this.'


I've changed my mind since post 11 on this thread. I do that sometimes


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## Sasaferrato (May 8, 2021)

Smokeandsteam said:


> It’s actually quite straightforward. Engage the Tories about the reconstruction of the economy post covid. Pledge a Biden style infrastructure plan (a mix of Keynesian boosterism for capital and relief for the most poor) covering broadband, transport, housing and health. Launch a town by town regeneration plan and hammer these on every leaflet and speech. If the Tories pledge x for a town *Labour pledges to do more.* Make a fulsome and genuine apology for the back turning on Brexit: and mean it. Set out a strategy to tackle poverty pay starting in the public sector. Continue to point out the Tories are a sleazy posh chumocracy. Emphasise the value of programmes and policies that benefit _all sections _of the working class with tailored messages for different demographics.
> 
> It’s pretty basic stuff.



They wouldn't be believed.


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## AmateurAgitator (May 8, 2021)

My understanding is that the tories have made a concerted effort to connect with people in communities up and down the country (as bizarre as that sounds) whereas labour haven't bothered.

And Rimbaud's point about the urban precariat and young voters is spot on. Plus, as I think has also been pointed out, like it or not -  politics is atleast to some degree about personality, and Starmer and co don't have any. Also, unlike the likes of the tories and the SNP (who have both been successful), labour also appear to have no central theme to run on.

But even if they ticked all the boxes, there's no guarantee they would be successful, but would likely not get the trouncing they are currently on the receiving end of.


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## Dogsauce (May 8, 2021)

Mr Moose said:


> Khalid Mahmood’s ‘woke warriors’ comment getting a lot of coverage. It’s a readymade soundbite for the media’s favourite Labour narrative.
> 
> People with this view always hark back to a time Labour was less alienated from its base.
> 
> But Labour members have held views about a wide variety of issues at least since after WW2, CND, anti racism, feminism, gay rights etc. These are not a problem for potential voters who don’t care so much about them if the Labour Party is fighting their corner. It’s not doing so, but not because it loves BLM instead.



It’s the new ‘Loony Left’ for the media, isn’t it? No attempt to discuss or challenge the ideas, just used as a pejorative, this is bad stuff kind of thing.


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## [62] (May 8, 2021)

oryx said:


> As for the Greens - I knew some people through my previous line of work who worked for Brighton Council when it was Green, and did not have good things to say about how they treated their employees. The Greens get positive publicity because Caroline Lucas is a highly respected MP.



Yeah, I'm sure there are some good people in the Greens, but my personal experience of one of their most prominent representatives where I live is that of a hectoring, posh NIMBY, and I suspect she's not an outlier.


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## editor (May 8, 2021)




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## editor (May 8, 2021)

Fucking Corbyn.


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## William of Walworth (May 9, 2021)

Has much been discussed earlier up about how much the Tory was helped by the absence of UKIP (or 2019 equivalent) standing this time in Hartlepool??

I'm sure I've missed a fair few posts, but as well as the Labour campaign's/Labour leader's total uselessness (  ), the Tory must have gained a big boost from the absence of a Farage-ist.


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## David Clapson (May 9, 2021)

Angela Rayner sacked? WTF??? Whatever mistakes were made, weren't they down to Starmer? Does he really think that anyone will say "Good one, Keir, Angela was clearly holding you back." She's one of the very few well known faces and she ought to stand for leader instead of letting her friend Long-Bailey do it. Nobody likes her anyway.


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## SlideshowBob (May 9, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> Has much been discussed earlier up about how much the Tory was helped by the absence of UKIP (or 2019 equivalent) standing this time in Hartlepool??
> 
> I'm sure I've missed a fair few posts, but as well as the Labour campaign's/Labour leader's total uselessness (  ), the Tory must have gained a big boost from the absence of a Farage-ist.



Key aspect of it - the seat would've probably swung away from Labour in 2019 had their not been two right-wing parties splitting the vote. For a long time in certain seats disillusioned voters used UKIP to show their frustration because the Tories were still too toxic for them. But as time moves on the toxicity of the Tories for many has faded and they're willing to back them now.


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## William of Walworth (May 9, 2021)

David Clapson said:


> *Angela Rayner sacked? WTF???* Whatever mistakes were made, weren't they down to Starmer? Does he really think that anyone will say "Good one, Keir, Angela was clearly holding you back." She's one of the very few well known faces and she ought to stand for leader instead of letting her friend Long-Bailey do it. Nobody likes her anyway.



Here's the BBC link to that story


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## Larry O'Hara (May 9, 2021)

oryx said:


> One of the good things about Corbyn's leadership was that he attracted young and radical-ish voters. I suspect that a lot of these have gone over to the Greens, or not bothered to vote.
> 
> I don't want to see Labour becoming that party of managerial 'centrist dad' types which under Starmer it is starting to do. (Maybe 'starting to' is an understatement).
> 
> As for the Greens - I knew some people through my previous line of work who worked for Brighton Council when it was Green, and did not have good things to say about how they treated their employees. The Greens get positive publicity because Caroline Lucas is a highly respected MP.


I was in the Greens for 25 years but left because their rightward drift/EUphilia disgusts me. And Caroline Lucas deserves no respect at all


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## Larry O'Hara (May 9, 2021)

William of Walworth said:


> Here's the BBC link to that story


As for Rayner: no sympathy whatsoever. She looked the other way when RLB & Corbyn were shafted. An unprincipled shallow careerist: like Starmer!


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## brogdale (May 9, 2021)

Astonishing that folk find this astonishing.

So many secular drivers behind this end-point of complete political illiteracy.
A triumph for hegemonic forces.


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## Larry O'Hara (May 9, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Fisher makes a valid point:



Is this the same Andrew Fisher who was given such an easy ride in the book by his mate the political wind-sock Owen Jones, but who quite possibly leaked his own resignation letter to the Sunday Times hardly helping the 2019 electoral campaign?  I think it is.
PS I did put this allegation to Fisher who as usual did not have the courtesy to reply.


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## brogdale (May 9, 2021)

Larry O'Hara said:


> Is this the same Andrew Fisher who was given such an easy ride in the book by his mate the political wind-sock Owen Jones, but who quite possibly leaked his own resignation letter to the Sunday Times hardly helping the 2019 electoral campaign?  I think it is.
> PS I did put this allegation to Fisher who as usual did not have the courtesy to reply.


Quite possibly; I was merely observing what I though to be a valid point made.


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## Larry O'Hara (May 9, 2021)

brogdale said:


> Quite possibly; I was merely observing what I though to be a valid point made.


I agree: just thought I wouldn't let the little shit off with anything!


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