# Assembly elections, May 5th



## lewislewis (Apr 9, 2011)

What is the feeling about the Assembly elections on May 5th?

Pretty uninspiring, bland campaign so far. It's looking like a Labour majority and Plaid possibly slipping into third place behind the Tories, and the Lib Dems collapsing. The most recent opinion poll has Labour on 50% of the vote, the Tories on 20%, Plaid on 16% and the Lib Dems on 7%. 

There is a slight chance of the Greens or UKIP picking up 1 seat as well.

What of the socialist left as well? I imagine much of their vote (such as it is) might go to Labour as a knee jerk reaction to the Tory/Lib Dem coalition in London. It seems to me like there are no Welsh or devolved factors in play at all, it's purely all about reacting to Westminster, which of course is exactly how Labour want it to play out.


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## jannerboyuk (Apr 10, 2011)

Are there any socialist candidates anywhere? I can see some lib dem votes going to the greens but the lib dems themselves are dead in the water. Not see anything in cardiff from them at all and they run the local council.


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## nogojones (Apr 11, 2011)

Lib Dems too scared to even put leaflets through doors.


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## Proper Tidy (Apr 12, 2011)

jannerboyuk said:


> Are there any socialist candidates anywhere?


 
Yeah

http://www.socialistpartywales.org.uk/news45.shtml

Communists also standing in all regional seats and one constituency seat I think.


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## Proper Tidy (Apr 12, 2011)

Oh, and SLP standing for regional up in the barren north. No idea about the south.


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## niclas (Apr 13, 2011)

jannerboyuk said:


> Are there any socialist candidates anywhere?


 
Leanne Wood, Bethan Jenkins, Steffan Lewis, Marc Jones, Shane Brennan... in Plaid


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## Proper Tidy (Apr 13, 2011)

-ish


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## ddraig (Apr 13, 2011)

oi with yer  youz!


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## William of Walworth (Apr 13, 2011)

nogojones said:


> Lib Dems too scared to even put leaflets through doors.



Not at our house today! 

But in Swansea, Labour will walk it. With my help tbh ... the candidate we have here in our part of the City seems OK. Ish.


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## Gavin Bl (Apr 14, 2011)

I can't face voting for Julie Morgan (or "Julie-Bad-Loser-Get-Me-Back-in-Power-Sharpish-Rhod-Morgan" as I like to know her), so thinking about voting Plaid. Be interesting to see how creamed the Lib Dems get - and where the votes go, if anywhere.


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## Riklet (Apr 14, 2011)

Lib Dem flier through the door most recently is red, red and red all over.  Not a trace of orange.  No shitting dove, no fuck all.  Mostly labour bashing, appealing to people to 'keep them out'.  Lols.  They are going to get hammered, 4% or something in some Riverside by-election thingy iirc?

I don't know much about caaaardiff politics but I do know one of the green guys and he's a really sound guy, involved in anti cuts activism and anti-capitalism kinda biz.  If there was a decent socialist candidate i might vote for them though.  Are there two votes for AMs on the ballot btw? I had a look on wikipedia and got confused.....


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## ddraig (Apr 14, 2011)

we've only had the lib dem one too

it is one vote only for each
there will be 3 ballot papers, one with 12 parties on, one with 4 candidates on and one for a yes/no to AV
i think a lot of people are going to be confused

here are the details btw http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/election2011/constituency/html/wales.stm
and for my area and i guess, yours http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/special/election2011/constituency/html/26672.stm


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## Riklet (Apr 14, 2011)

Ta ddraig, that makes more sense now.  Fuck knows who to vote for out of the motley 4 or 5.  Realistically probably labour.  Groan.

"Currently the safest Liberal Democrat seat in the Assembly"

£20 says they lose it.


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## Blanco2 (Apr 15, 2011)

Apathy seems to be the winner


BNP or ukip  may get a seat 




Riklet said:


> Ta ddraig, that makes more sense now.  Fuck knows who to vote for out of the motley 4 or 5.  Realistically probably labour.  Groan.
> 
> "Currently the safest Liberal Democrat seat in the Assembly"
> 
> £20 says they lose it.


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## Dic Penderyn (Apr 15, 2011)

Blanco2 said:


> Apathy seems to be the winner
> 
> 
> BNP or ukip  may get a seat


 
The BNP are highly unlikely to get enough support to manage a seat, but UKIP might be in with an outside shout.

The methodology used to calculate the winners of the regional seats favours a four party system. The likely collapse of the lib dem vote across the board will probably boost them on the regional lists. 

North Wales would be the most likely target seat for UKIP, the Lib Dems would still have to fall away some. If you really are worried about the ability of UKIP to win then you'd be better off voting Lib Dem than anything else. Personally I''m not sure which is worse.

Incidentally it's impressive that the Left has managed to field 60 candidates, on three different slates, all on the regional lists! Seems very unlikely they will maximise their potential possible vote (doubt that would be enough to win a seat anywhere mind). Greens seem to be talking themselves up in South central, but I can't see it to be honest, I'm sure the Lib Dem will collapse but that will give them a boost them on the regional list.

I predict a comfortable Labour majority and only four parties represented in the next Senedd. I'll be voting Nobody.


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## ddraig (Apr 15, 2011)

Blanco2 said:


> Apathy seems to be the winner
> 
> 
> BNP or ukip  may get a seat


 yo returner fuckwit! why not log in with your other account and answer your bollocks on the edl/wdl thread?


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## Proper Tidy (Apr 15, 2011)

BNP candidates:

The constituency candidates:

Michael Joseph Whitby – Alyn & Deeside
Brian Urch – Blaenau Gwent
Anthony King – Caerphilly
Peter Whalley – Islwyn
Mike Green – Neath
Joanne Shannon – Swansea East
Sue Harwood – Torfaen


The regional lists:

North

John Walker
Richard Barnes
Ian Si’ree
Clive Jefferson


Mid & West

Kay Thomas
Watcyn Richards
Roger Phillips
Gary Tumulty


South Wales Central

Gareth Connors
Mary John
Keith Fairhurst
Edward O’Sullivan


South Wales East

Laurence Reid
Jennie Noble
John Voisey
Jennifer Matthys


South Wales West

Clive Bennett
Adam Walker
Sion Owens
Adam Lloyd

http://unitedwrexham.co.uk/2011/04/13/list-of-bnp-candidates-for-assembly-elections/

Best shot they have is the regional lists. Can't speak for South but in the Naughty North, formerly their most likely seat, I'd expect their vote share to go down. They don't fucking exist here any more. A few years back they had a couple of decent activists here in Wrexham, they've got sweet fuck all now.


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## William of Walworth (Apr 16, 2011)

Gavin Bl said:
			
		

> I can't face voting for Julie Morgan (or "Julie-Bad-Loser-Get-Me-Back-in-Power-Sharpish-Rhod-Morgan" as I like to know her), so thinking about voting Plaid. Be interesting to see how creamed the Lib Dems get - and where the votes go, if anywhere.



Yer in a different bit of Swansea to me man .... 

Fancy a pint and some loosely political chat soon?


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## William of Walworth (Apr 16, 2011)

Dic Penderyn said:


> I'm sure the Lib Dem will collapse but that will give them a boost them on the regional list.



Can you explain this a bit more please Dic? A collapse is a collapse surely, how can failing Lib Dems succeed from failing (which seems to be the apparant implication of yr post)



> I'll be voting Nobody.



97 (ONO  ) generations of my old school old fashioned leftie family gives me historical baggage that stops that 'luxury option  ' beng possible for me ...  at self ...


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## Gavin Bl (Apr 16, 2011)

William of Walworth said:


> Yer in a different bit of Swansea to me man ....
> 
> Fancy a pint and some loosely political chat soon?



I am - I'm in a bit of Swansea called Cardiff....it would be good to meet up one day though...


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## embree (Apr 16, 2011)

William of Walworth said:


> Can you explain this a bit more please Dic? A collapse is a collapse surely, how can failing Lib Dems succeed from failing (which seems to be the apparant implication of yr post)


 
Basically the list vote exists to balance out the constituency one and make the overall make up of the assembly more proportional. So, if a party has won a few constituency members then they are less likely to gain list members as the calculation is done by taking into account the number of constituency members already in place.

So, if the Lib Dems were to win fewer constituency AMs outright, provided their list vote doesn't collapse too much they could gain a couple of top up members from the list. Of course, if they really collapse then even that may not save them.


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## Proper Tidy (Apr 16, 2011)

embree said:


> Basically the list vote exists to balance out the constituency one and make the overall make up of the assembly more proportional. So, if a party has won a few constituency members then they are less likely to gain list members as the calculation is done by taking into account the number of constituency members already in place.
> 
> So, if the Lib Dems were to win fewer constituency AMs outright, provided their list vote doesn't collapse too much they could gain a couple of top up members from the list. Of course, if they really collapse then even that may not save them.


 
Could potentially be as low as 5% of the vote needed to get a regional list seat - polls seem to suggest the Lib Dems will be in the running for some regionals.


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## William of Walworth (Apr 16, 2011)

Thanks for that embree -- it's clearer to me now


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## William of Walworth (Apr 16, 2011)

Gavin Bl said:


> I am - I'm in a bit of Swansea called Cardiff....it would be good to meet up one day though...



Nice one, we do get to Cardiff now and again so


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## Dic Penderyn (Apr 16, 2011)

Yeah, the number of regional votes for a party is divided by the number of constituency AMs elected in that region plus one.

The Lib Dems are almost certain to lose all their constituency seats (except maybe Montgomery and Brecon & Radnor) which will help their top up from the regional seats. 

For example, winning Cardiff Central has always halved the Lib Dem regional vote in south central, without that I think they will probably hold up enough of their core to scrape through with a regional seat, denying the Greens in the process. Could be wrong though, might see total collapse if the greens manage to convert the student vote. 

If the Lib Dems do manage to lose out in their mid-wales heartlands, the boost they will get on the mid & west regional list would wipe out the chances for the tories, (likely victim: Nick Bourne).

Though they could benefit from disenfranchised Lib Dem supporters, I think Plaid will suffer in urban areas more than they are expecting due to the badger cull (expect a surge of animal rights leafleting in urban Plaid targets soon).


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## lewislewis (Apr 20, 2011)

Remember, a regional vote for Plaid in South Wales Central will get Leanne Wood re-elected- Wales' most active elected socialist. A better shout than giving your votes to the Communist, TUSC or SLP lists! I think the Lib Dems will lose their Cardiff Central seat which means Plaid's regional seats are then at risk because the Lib Dems could get a top up. 

I'm not convinced the Greens are on course in South Wales Central- the regional breakdowns in the opinion polls are based on samples of about 200 people, which won't give you an accurate result. In one poll the Greens were on 7% in SWC, then a month later were on 2%. The sample size doesn't give a good enough picture.

Unfortunately I think Labour will be the biggest victor of the student vote. Alot of students aren't that radical at all and will plump for the vaguely centre-left option, which is what the Lib Dems used to market themselves as.


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## ddraig (Apr 20, 2011)

saw a "lib Dems - winning here" sign in Roath on the weekend


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## Silurian (Apr 20, 2011)

ddraig said:


> saw a "lib Dems - winning here" sign in Roath on the weekend



What, held aloft by a hand sinking inexorably into the lake?


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## wayward bob (May 6, 2011)

Silurian said:


> What, held aloft by a hand sinking inexorably into the lake?


 


so can anyone summarise what the effect of a labour majority might be? the constant demands of small kids have left me hopelessly out of touch with national (welsh) politics


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## geminisnake (May 6, 2011)

Can someone explain why Plaid Cymru have gone down the scale??  I know little about welsh politics but was surprised they've lost seats.


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## Proper Tidy (May 6, 2011)

geminisnake said:


> Can someone explain why Plaid Cymru have gone down the scale??  I know little about welsh politics but was surprised they've lost seats.


 
Anti-Tory and anti-coalition vote out in strength, leading to big gains for Labour. On top of that, as a result of the 'One Wales' govt in Cardiff Bay, Plaid are perceived as too close politically to Welsh Labour on most issues bar nationalism and as the junior partners. In Scotland, the SNP, not having been the junior partners in govt, are seen as more viable and they have also benefitted from a lack of faith in Scottish Labour and Iain whatshisface. But mostly because people have turned back to Labour in their droves in the face of the ConDem coalition. It is primarily Welsh Labour which has benefited from the perceived protection from some cuts that devolved government has offered us, not Plaid.


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## ddraig (May 6, 2011)

that's a good explanation of sorts pt

been thinking of the reason and your question for the last few hrs geminisnake but couldn't come up with much


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## ddraig (May 6, 2011)

38 votes in it for Cardiff central! 



> Cardiff Central
> 
> Winning party: Lab
> *Majority: 38
> ...


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## wayward bob (May 6, 2011)




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## ymu (May 7, 2011)

Proper Tidy said:


> Anti-Tory and anti-coalition vote out in strength, leading to big gains for Labour. On top of that, as a result of the 'One Wales' govt in Cardiff Bay, Plaid are perceived as too close politically to Welsh Labour on most issues bar nationalism and as the junior partners. In Scotland, the SNP, not having been the junior partners in govt, are seen as more viable and they have also benefitted from a lack of faith in Scottish Labour and Iain whatshisface. But mostly because people have turned back to Labour in their droves in the face of the ConDem coalition. It is primarily Welsh Labour which has benefited from the perceived protection from some cuts that devolved government has offered us, not Plaid.


 
Thanks for that. I came here to ask the same question as geminisnake.

So basically, Plaid are the Welsh Lib Dems, so they weren't seen as a viable means to give Labour a good kicking too - whereas in Scotland there was a real fourth party option.


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## Gavin Bl (May 7, 2011)

my Plaid, Plaid, Yes voting pattern worked well..


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## Proper Tidy (May 7, 2011)

ymu said:


> Thanks for that. I came here to ask the same question as geminisnake.
> 
> So basically, Plaid are the Welsh Lib Dems, so they weren't seen as a viable means to give Labour a good kicking too - whereas in Scotland there was a real fourth party option.


 
Pretty much. It isn't just down to Plaid though, it is also that the political independence, actual and perceived, of Scotland is greater than Wales. A lot of Plaid have been saying that 'London politics' shouldn't play a part in Assembly elections but that is just wishful thinking on their part - this election was fought mainly on UK issues. In Scotland, much less so.

Could get interesting now though - Labour won 30 seats. They needed 31 for an outright majority. 30 seats still gives them enough to form a government alone which is what most people expected them to do - but Welsh Labour are hinting now that they will seek to form a 'Labour-led' govt ie a coalition, and the whispers are that this won't be with Plaid (11 seats) but with the Welsh Lib Dems (5 seats).

Also, Welsh Tory leader Nick Bourne lost his seat (he was a regional AM for Mid & West Wales). Lol. But the Tories did quite well overall, with 14 seats they are the second party in Wales, much to the chagrin of Plaid who thought they would be.


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## ymu (May 7, 2011)

Coalition with Welsh LDs is intriguing. Building a path out of the coalition for those in Westminster? Leave the Orange Bookers to cross the floor.

Good call on the Westminster vs Holyrood dynamic. It seems that the Westminster suits insist on treating the Scottish election like a dress rehearsal for Westminster and it don't go down so well up there.


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## lewislewis (May 7, 2011)

This was a bad election for progressive politics in Wales.

Compared to Scotland where turnout increased, turnout was down in Wales, and despite their slogan of preventing Tory cuts, Labour won't actually do anything in government to stop them. This is a victory for the right of Welsh Labour led by Peter Hain who want a coalition with the Lib Dems- the Lib Dems campaigned during the election on establishing PPPs in the health sector, just as they implemented with Labour in the 1999-2003 Lib-Lab coalition. The Tories also performed very strongly, and replaced Plaid as the second party in Wales. We are no longer in a position where Wales' two largest parties both lean to the left. Labour and the Lib Dems just want to manage Wales, rather than demonstrating any particular vision of an alternative society.

The one ray of light is that Leanne Wood was returned, and the excellent former Plaid MP Simon Thomas, who was an impeccable left-wing voice at Westminster, was also elected as a Plaid AM.


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## geminisnake (May 7, 2011)

Just thought I'd best say thank you to Proper Tidy for the explaination.  Tbh I don't think the 'suits' get how Scots work at all. We sometimes vote for the person, regardless of their party, we don't like smug bastids, and ime we loathe being treated as second class. 
Labour disappeared up its own arse a long time ago and imo it's taken a couple of elections for the red monkeys to realise that voting for a party coz they have the right colour rosette isn't a good thing.


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## ymu (May 7, 2011)

Here we go:



> Labour's campaign insulted the intelligence of the Scottish voters by insisting that, as their manifesto put it: "The Tories are back" when they emphatically are not – in Scotland at least. The voters have returned the insult by applying to Labour the kind of tactical voting they used to destroy the Scottish Tories in the 1990s.
> 
> http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/may/06/snp-scottish-election-scotland


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## Proper Tidy (May 9, 2011)

Rumour has it that Labour are going to go into coalition with... the Tories! Would give the LP a 2 seat majority, in return the Tories get the Presiding Officer and Deputy Presiding Officer.

Only a rumour but if there is even a shred of truth to this then it is a fuck-up of monumental proportions for Welsh Labour. Lol.


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## Riklet (May 9, 2011)

That seems like bollocks tbh, although you never know...

Surely they can just try and run on 30 seats? Or hop in the sack with Plaid again... who are at least somewhat progressive in their politics..


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## Proper Tidy (May 9, 2011)

Riklet said:


> That seems like bollocks tbh, although you never know...
> 
> Surely they can just try and run on 30 seats? Or hop in the sack with Plaid again... who are at least somewhat progressive in their politics..


 
They could govern on just 30 seats no problem, which is what most thought they would do, but they've made it clear they want a coalition with somebody and seem distinctly lacking in enthusiasm about doing a deal with Plaid. Dunno why, the One Wales coalition has meant Labour got the credit for policies at least partly driven by Plaid, and effectively neutered what was then the second largest party in Wales. Still think a Lab/Lib coalition will be the most likely outcome.


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## ddraig (May 9, 2011)

weird init!


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## lewislewis (May 9, 2011)

The One Wales coalition had some interesting effects on Plaid electorally. The price Plaid demanded was the referendum.

But in the 2008 local elections, and to a lesser extent the 2009 Euros, Plaid made gains at the expense of Labour in urbanised, southern Wales (especially 2008)- probably because of the factor of New Labour still being in power. Plaid made those gains despite being in coalition.

The referendum itself in March 2011 changed everything though as Labour's Welsh positioning absorbed a significant part of Plaid's vote.

Labour (or specifically, the faction or grouping around Carwyn Jones) would be happy with One Wales mark 2. One Wales damaged Plaid at the expense of a nationalist concession, that being a law-making Assembly.

One Wales mark 2 would be incredibly easy to formulate.

Plaid however won't go in for One Wales 2 because their activists and members wouldn't be keen and want to see the party's direction and messaging fixed, and that can only happen in opposition. The silver lining is that at least Plaid AMs are putting the state of their party ahead of their Ministerial careers. It makes me confident all is not lost and with people like Leanne Wood & Simon Thomas in the Assembly, Plaid can bounce back.

And the long-term agenda Plaid is promoting remains active, particularly with events in Scotland having knock-on effects on Wales.

The problem is applying these protracted, patient, material objectives of gradual constitutional advancement to the mindset of the average Plaid member who is romantic/idealistic, passionate etc. 

I think a Labour minority government could do some good things. When Lab had a majority before Plaid supported Lab from opposition when they undertook socially progressive policies, so I imagine that would continue. But I think overall, there might now be some risks to Labour allowing more private mechanisms in the health service and education, particularly if the Lib Dems get involved. 

I also think Labour will shift spending in the transport budget away from public transport and towards roads, whereas Plaid moved it away from roads and towards public transport.


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## Proper Tidy (May 9, 2011)

Good post lewislewis, interesting that you say the reluctance is on Plaid's part not Labour's.

This is a hell of an understatement though!



lewislewis said:


> The problem is applying these protracted, patient, material objectives of gradual constitutional advancement to the mindset of the average Plaid member who is romantic/idealistic, passionate etc.


 
I know a few Plaid rank and file members and they tend to be out-and-out nats, whereas the more active members and the politicians tend to have a more rounded soft-left politics. Anyway, the rank and filers I know are fucking fuming, 'the party's over/we need to claim it back/people want a hardline nationalist party/time to put full independence by any means necessary at the forefront of our manifesto' etc etc. Not a dig but there are a lot of romantics in Plaid.


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## lewislewis (May 9, 2011)

Proper Tidy said:


> I know a few Plaid rank and file members and they tend to be out-and-out nats, whereas the more active members and the politicians tend to have a more rounded soft-left politics. Anyway, the rank and filers I know are fucking fuming, 'the party's over/we need to claim it back/people want a hardline nationalist party/time to put full independence by any means necessary at the forefront of our manifesto' etc etc. Not a dig but there are a lot of romantics in Plaid.



You're completely right. 

The 'problem' (although it's not really a problem as such) is that Plaid emerged from liberalism rather than organised labour or socialism. So alot of the people you will find talking with reasoned analysis throughout the party's history are Marxists like Gwyn Alf etc, rather than the party's founders. Whereas people from the old Welsh romantic tradition like Saunders Lewis tended to be more vague and unworldly and more concerned about cultural issues.

There might be parallels in the modern period and you might have picked up on them.

It's definitely a more fascinating and strange party than any other of the mainstream ones.


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## Proper Tidy (May 10, 2011)

Yeah, Plaid's origins in the liberal/radical tradition as opposed to the labour movement still shines through.

Anyway:

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/w...labour-sole-power-in-assembly-91466-28664008/

Hmmm


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